Sample records for paleoclimatic palmer drought

  1. Palmer Drought Severity Index (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — PDSI from the Dai dataset. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is devised by Palmer (1965) to represent the severity of dry and wet spells over the U.S. based...

  2. Evidence for increasingly variable Palmer Drought Severity Index in the United States since 1895. (United States)

    Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya


    Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous United States as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range)). During this time frame, the average aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase in drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the running aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in the aPDSI5 yr(min|max, range) is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous United States. Similar trends were found for the annual and summertime Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Modified Drought Index (PMDI), and the Palmer Z Index (PZI). Overall, interannual drought patterns in the contiguous United States are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought and Crop Moisture Indices (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Palmer Drought Severity and Crop Moisture Indices are computed for the 344 U.S. Climate Divisions on a weekly basis based on a...

  4. Assessing Agricultural Drought in the Anthropocene: A Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index

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    Mingzhi Yang


    Full Text Available In the current human-influenced era, drought is initiated by natural and human drivers, and human activities are as integral to drought as meteorological factors. In large irrigated agricultural regions with high levels of human intervention, where the natural farmland soil moisture has usually been changed significantly by high-frequency irrigation, the actual severity of agricultural drought is distorted in traditional drought indices. In this work, an agricultural drought index that considering irrigation processes based on the Palmer drought severity index (IrrPDSI was developed to interpret the real agricultural drought conditions in irrigated regions, with a case study in the Haihe River Basin in northeast China. The water balance model in the original PDSI was revised by an auto-irrigation threshold method combined with a local irrigation schedule. The auto-irrigation setting of the index was used by taking irrigation quotas during specific growth stages of specific crops (wheat–corn into consideration. A series of weekly comparative analyses are as follows: (1 The soil moisture analyses showed that soil moisture values calculated by the modified water balance model were close to the real values; (2 The statistical analyses indicated that most of the stations in the study area based on IrrPDSI had nearly normal distributed values; (3 The time series and spatial analyses showed that the results of the IrrPDSI-reported dry-wet evaluation were more consistent with documented real conditions. All the results revealed that IrrPDSI performed well when used to assess agricultural drought. This work has direct significance for agricultural drought management in large irrigated areas heavily disturbed by human activity.

  5. Exploring the Components of the Palmer Drought Indices Using the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin as a Case Study (United States)

    Perrone, D.; Duncan, L. L.; Jacobi, J. H.; Hornberger, G.


    Water resources are vital to sustaining ecosystem services, energy and food supplies, and industrial processes. Competition for water resources is likely to intensify as the population increases, economy grows, and land develops. Drought events intensify water scarcity, and recent events in many countries, including the United States (US), Great Britain, and Sri Lanka, highlight how important it is to provide meaningful context to water planners and managers. Palmer's drought indices - Z Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) - are widely used and accepted by scientists and policy makers in the US to understand drought and manage water resources. Drought index values at the climate division scale are available, but a transparent calculation tool at multiple spatial and temporal scales is not readily available. Moreover, a close look at the development of the indices reveals a number of subjective calculation methods and regionally biased factors. For researchers studying areas with overlapping climate divisions, performing international research, or working with limited, site-specific data, the ability to control and modify calculations is desired. This research presents a transparent tool for calculating Palmer's drought indices. We use the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, located in the southeastern US, as our case study to explore and evaluate the sensitivity of Palmer's indices to temperature and precipitation anomalies, calibration periods, and other index components. The ACF has suffered two major droughts (2007 and 2012) in the past five years and supports multiple demand-side sectors - agriculture in Georgia, public and recreational supply for the Atlanta metropolitan area, hydroelectric power in Alabama, tri-state navigation, and ecosystem services. We show how the PDSI varies in response to changes in precipitation, calibration period, and a number of other variables. The aim of the

  6. Construction of prediction intervals for Palmer Drought Severity Index using bootstrap (United States)

    Beyaztas, Ufuk; Bickici Arikan, Bugrayhan; Beyaztas, Beste Hamiye; Kahya, Ercan


    In this study, we propose an approach based on the residual-based bootstrap method to obtain valid prediction intervals using monthly, short-term (three-months) and mid-term (six-months) drought observations. The effects of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation indexes on the constructed prediction intervals are also examined. Performance of the proposed approach is evaluated for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) obtained from Konya closed basin located in Central Anatolia, Turkey. The finite sample properties of the proposed method are further illustrated by an extensive simulation study. Our results revealed that the proposed approach is capable of producing valid prediction intervals for future PDSI values.

  7. Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb Gric Observatory (United States)

    Pandzic, K.; Likso, T.


    Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Zagreb Gric Observatory are compared by spectral analysis technique. Data for a period 1862-2010 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation but PDI more comprehensive index. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible application of it on climate change interpretation. Possible applications of them in irrigation scheduling system is considered as well for drought risk assessment.

  8. Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index for Zagreb-Gric Observatory (United States)

    Pandzic, Kreso


    Conventional Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and recent Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are compared for Zagreb-Gric weather station. Historical time series of PDSI and SPI are compared. For that purpose monthly precipitation, air temperature and air humidity data for Zagreb-Gric Observatory and period 1862-2012 are used. The results indicate that SPI is simpler for interpretation than PDSI. On the other side, lack of temperature within SPI, make impossible use of it on climate change applications. A comparison of PDSI and SPI for the periods from 1 to 24 months indicate the best agreement between PDSI and SPI for the periods from 6 to 12 months. In addition, correlation coefficients of determination between annual corn crop per hectare and SPI 9- months time scale and PDSI from May to October are shown as significant.

  9. Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa


    Mathieu Couttenier; Raphael Soubeyran


    We show that civil war is strongly related to drought in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider the e ect of variations in the Palmer Drought Severity Index (Palmer 1965) - a cumulative index that combines precipitation, temperature and the local characteristics of the soil - on the risk of civil war. While the recent, contentious debate on the link between climate and civil war has mainly focused on precipitation and temperature, without obtaining converging results, the Palmer index describes soci...

  10. Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099) (United States)

    Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz


    Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

  11. Performing drought indices to identify the relationship between agricultural losses and drought events in Spain. (United States)

    Peña Gallardo, Marina; Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente; Portugués Santiago, Beguería; Burguera Miquel, Tomás


    Drought leads to crop failures reducing the productivity. For this reason, the need of appropriate tool for recognize dry periods and evaluate the impact of drought on crop production is important. In this study, we provide an assessment of the relationship between drought episodes and crop failures in Spain as one of the direct consequences of drought is the diminishing of crop yields. First, different drought indices [the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); the self-calibrated Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (Z-Index), the self-calibrated Crop Moisture Index (CMI) and the Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI)] have been calculated at different time scales in order to identify the dry events occurred in Spain and determine the duration and intensity of each event. Second, the drought episodes have been correlated with crop production estimated and final crop production data provided by the Spanish Crop Insurance System for the available period from 1995 to 2014 at the municipal spatial scale, with the purpose of knowing if the characteristics of the drought episodes are reflected on the agricultural losses. The analysis has been carried out in particular for two types of crop, wheat and barley. The results indicate the existence of an agreement between the most important drought events in Spain and the response of the crop productions and the proportion of hectare insurance. Nevertheless, this agreement vary depending on the drought index applied. Authors found a higher competence of the drought indices calculated at different time scales (SPEI, SPI and SPDI) identifying the begging and end of the drought events and the correspondence with the crop failures.

  12. Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values (United States)

    Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.


    Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

  13. New paleoclimatic database for the Iberian Peninsula since AD 1700 inferred from tree-ring records and documentary evidence: advances in temperature and drought variability reconstructions (United States)

    Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; de Luis, Martín; Esper, Jan; Barriendos, Mariano; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Novak, Klemen; Longares, Luis Alberto; Martínez-del Castillo, Edurne; María Cuadrat, José


    A substantial increase of surface air temperatures in the upcoming decades, particularly significant in the Mediterranean basin, has been reported by the IPCC (IPCC, 2013). It is therefore particularly important to study past climate extremes and variability in this region, which will in turn support the accuracy of future climate scenarios. Yet, our knowledge of past climate variability and trends is limited by the shortage of instrumental data prior to the twentieth century, which prompts to the need of discovering new sources with which to reconstruct past climate. We here present a new paleoclimatic database for the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula based on tree-ring records, documentary evidence and instrumental data. The network includes 774 tree-ring, earlywood and latewood width series from Pinus uncinata, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra trees in the Pyrenees and Iberian Range reaching back to AD 1510. Three reconstructions are developed using these samples; an annual drought reconstruction since AD 1694, a summer drought reconstruction since AD 1734, and a maximum temperature reconstruction since AD 1604. Additionally, the documentary records from 16 locations in the Ebro Valley are examined focusing on climate-related 'rogations'. We differentiated three types of rogations, considering the importance of religious acts, to identify the severity of drought and pluvial events. Finally, an attempt to explore the links between documentary and tree-ring based reconstructions is presented.

  14. Relationship between crown dieback and drought in the southeastern United States (United States)

    Michael K. Crosby; Zhaofei Fan; Martin A. Spetich; Theodor D. Leininger; Xingang. Fan


    Forest Health and Monitoring (FHM) and Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data were obtained for 11 states in the southeastern United States to assess the relationship between drought and crown dieback. Correlation analyses were performed at the species group and ecoregion levels within the study area. The results indicate a negative correlation between...

  15. A drought severity climatology for the Carpathian Region using Sc-PDSI (United States)

    Antofie, Tiberiu; Naumann, Gustavo; Spinoni, Jonathan; Weynants, Melanie; Szalai, Sandor; Szentimrey, Tamas; Bihari, Zita; Vogt, Jürgen


    Monthly grids of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI) have been calculated for the period 1961-2010 for the Carpathian Region (17˚-27˚E, 44˚-50˚N) with a spatial resolution of 0.1˚x 0.1˚. Using the Sc-PDSI and the assumptions of the Palmer Drought Model (PDM), the approximated precipitation required for drought termination (achieved when the Sc-PDSI turns back above -0.5) and amelioration (achieved when the Sc-PDSI value turns back above -2.0) are computed for periods of 1, 3, 6, and 9 months. The Sc-PDSI is based on a modified version of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), first introduced by Palmer (1965) with the intent to measure the cumulative departure (related to local normal conditions) of moisture supply and demand. Due to its empirically derived climatic characteristic (K) and duration factors - limited to U.S. climatic conditions - Wells et al. (2004) improved it and transformed the PDSI into the Sc-PDSI, which is more appropriate for spatial comparisons in different climatic regions. The Sc-PDSI is based on the supply-and-demand concept of a complex water budget system based on precipitation and temperature records and also on the soil characteristics at any location. The inputs used in this study are the Available Water Capacity of the soil (AWC) derived from the soil texture (European Soil Database of JRC) with a spatial resolution of 0.1˚x0.1˚, Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET), and 6 hydrological parameters of the soil water balance: recharge, runoff, loss, and their potential values (used in the calculation of Palmer's constants to define the normal climate for the specific location, i.e. the so called CAFEC). PET has been computed using the 0.1˚x 0.1˚ gridded monthly precipitation and mean temperature for 1961-2010 provided by the CARPATCLIM project in the framework of the construction of a Climate Atlas for the Carpathian Region. The Sc-PDSI focuses on the monthly anomalies of the soil moisture, thus it

  16. Description of future drought indices in Virginia

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    Hyunwoo Kang


    Full Text Available This article presents projected future drought occurrences in five river basins in Virginia. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models were used to derive input variables of multiple drought indices, such as the Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI, the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI for both historic and future periods. The results of SSI indicate that there was an overall increase in agricultural drought occurrences and that these were caused by increases in evapotranspiration and runoff. However, the results of the MSDI and MPDSI projected a decrease in drought occurrences in future periods due to a greater increase in precipitation in the future. Furthermore, GCM-downscaled products (precipitation and temperature were verified using comparisons with historic observations, and the results of uncertainty analyses suggest that the lower and upper bounds of future drought projections agree with historic conditions.

  17. Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick


    Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE (Christian Era) 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December-February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50 percent of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

  18. Agricultural drought and spring barley yields in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semerádová, Daniela; Dubrovský, Martin; Žalud, Z.; Možný, M.


    Roč. 53, č. 7 (2007), s. 306-316 ISSN 1214-1178 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : Hordeum vulgare L * Palmer Z-index * climatic conditions * yield * drought Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  19. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, Miroslav; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.


    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * mediteranean * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014

  20. Drought assessment in the Dongliao River basin: traditional approaches vs. generalized drought assessment index based on water resources systems (United States)

    Weng, B. S.; Yan, D. H.; Wang, H.; Liu, J. H.; Yang, Z. Y.; Qin, T. L.; Yin, J.


    Drought is firstly a resource issue, and with its development it evolves into a disaster issue. Drought events usually occur in a determinate but a random manner. Drought has become one of the major factors to affect sustainable socioeconomic development. In this paper, we propose the generalized drought assessment index (GDAI) based on water resources systems for assessing drought events. The GDAI considers water supply and water demand using a distributed hydrological model. We demonstrate the use of the proposed index in the Dongliao River basin in northeastern China. The results simulated by the GDAI are compared to observed drought disaster records in the Dongliao River basin. In addition, the temporal distribution of drought events and the spatial distribution of drought frequency from the GDAI are compared with the traditional approaches in general (i.e., standard precipitation index, Palmer drought severity index and rate of water deficit index). Then, generalized drought times, generalized drought duration, and generalized drought severity were calculated by theory of runs. Application of said runs at various drought levels (i.e., mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought) during the period 1960-2010 shows that the centers of gravity of them all distribute in the middle reaches of Dongliao River basin, and change with time. The proposed methodology may help water managers in water-stressed regions to quantify the impact of drought, and consequently, to make decisions for coping with drought.

  1. What Caused the Winter Drought in Western Nepal during Recent Years?

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    Wang, S-Y (Simon); Yoon, Jin-Ho; Gillies, R.; Cho, Changrae


    Western Nepal has experienced consecutive and worsened winter drought conditions since 2000 culminating in a severe drought episode during 2008-2009. In this study, the meteorological conditons and a historical pespective of the winter droughts in western Nepal were analyzed using respectively instumental records and a paleoclimatic drought index. Althought decadal-scale drought conditions were found to be recurrent in the paleoclimate record, the severity of the recent decadal drought (since 2000) clearly stands out in the 700 years of record and, this is suggestive of potential anthropogenic influences in the recent decades. Meteorological diagnosis using atmospheric reanalysis in the recent decades revealed that (1) winter drought in western Nepal is linked to the Arctic Oscillation and its decadal variability, which initiates a tropospheric short-wave train across the Europe, Eurasia and South Asia, and that (2) the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean likely contributes to the suppression of rainfall through enhanced local Hadley circultion. It is therefore conceivable that the recent spells of decadal drought in Nepal drought are symptomatic of both natural variability and anthropogenic influences.

  2. Examining the extreme 2017 spring drought event in South Korea using a suite of drought indices (SPI, SC-PDSI, SPEI, EDI) (United States)

    Nam, W. H.; Hayes, M. J.; Svoboda, M. D.; Fuchs, B.; Tadesse, T.; Wilhite, D. A.; Hong, E. M.; Kim, T.


    South Korea has experienced extreme droughts in 1994-1995, 2000-2001, 2012, 2015, and 2016-2017. The 2017 spring drought (with especially low winter precipitation recorded in winter 2016) affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since the 2000-2001 drought. The spring drought of 2017 was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation record (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. It was the climatologically driest spring over the 1961-2016 record period. Effective drought monitoring and management depends on which drought indices are selected because each drought index has different drought criteria or levels of drought severity, associated with drought responses. In this study, for the quantitative analysis of the spring 2017 drought event in South Korea, four widely-used drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), and the Effective Drought Index (EDI) are compared with observed drought damaged areas in the context of agricultural drought impacts. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) has been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

  3. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Hayes, M.; Duce, P.; Trnka, M.; Svoboda, M.; Zara, P.


    Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919 ISSN 1436-3798 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420806; GA MŠk LD12029 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : mediterranean * climate change * global climate models * temperature * precipitation * drought * Palmer drought severity index * weather generator Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.628, year: 2014

  4. Decadal Drought and Wetness Reconstructed for Subtropical North America in the Mexican Drought Atlas (United States)

    Burnette, D. J.; Stahle, D. W.; Cook, E. R.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Griffin, D.; Cook, B.


    A new drought atlas has been developed for subtropical North America, including the entire Republic of Mexico. This Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) is based on 251 tree-ring chronologies, including 82 from Mexico and another 169 from the southern U.S. and western Guatemala. Point-by-point principal components regression was used to reconstruct the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June-August. Calibration and verification statistics were improved over what was previously possible with the North American Drought Atlas, which was based on fewer chronologies only in Mexico. The MXDA will be served on the web with analytical tools for composite, correlation, and congruence analyses. The new PDSI reconstructions provide a more detailed estimation of decadal moisture regimes over the past 2000 years, but are most robust after 1400 AD, when several chronologies are available across Mexico. Droughts previously identified in a subset of chronologies are confirmed and their spatial impact quantified in the new reconstructions. This includes the intense drought of the mid-15th Century described in Aztec legend, the 16th Century megadrought, and "El Año del Hambre", one of the worst famines in Mexican history. We also use the best replicated portion of the MXDA in the 18th and 19th Centuries to reconstruct moisture anomalies during key time periods of Mexican turmoil (e.g., the Mexican War of Independence).

  5. Drought Forecasting by SPI Index and ANFIS Model Using Fuzzy C-mean Clustering

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    mehdi Komasi


    Full Text Available Drought is the interaction between environment and water cycle in the world and affects natural environment of an area when it persists for a longer period. So, developing a suitable index to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of drought plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems. In this article, firstly, the drought concept and drought indexes were introduced and then the fuzzy neural networks and fuzzy C-mean clustering were applied to forecast drought via standardized precipitation index (SPI. The results of this research indicate that the SPI index is more capable than the other indexes such as PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PAI (Palfai Aridity Index and etc. in drought forecasting process. Moreover, application of adaptive nero-fuzzy network accomplished by C-mean clustering has high efficiency in the drought forecasting.

  6. Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Jingfeng; Zhuang Qianlai


    Fire is the dominant disturbance in forest ecosystems across Canada and Alaska, and has important implications for forest ecosystems, terrestrial carbon dioxide emissions and the forestry industry. Large fire activity had increased in Canadian and Alaskan forests during the last four decades of the 20th century. Here we combined the Palmer Drought Severity Index and historical large fire databases to demonstrate that Canada and Alaska forest regions experienced summer drying over this time period, and drought during the fire season significantly affected forest fire activity in these regions. Climatic warming, positive geopotential height anomalies and ocean circulation patterns were spatially and temporally convolved in causing drought conditions, which in turn enhanced fuel flammability and thereby indirectly affected fire activity. Future fire regimes will likely depend on drought patterns under global climate change scenarios

  7. Development and application of a short- /long-term composited drought index in the upper Huaihe River basin, China

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    M. Yu


    Full Text Available Accurate and reliable drought monitoring is of primary importance for drought mitigation and reduction of social-ecological vulnerability. The aim of the paper was to propose a short-term/long-term composited drought index (CDI which could be widely used for drought monitoring and early warning in China. In the study, the upper Huaihe River basin above the Xixian gauge station, which has been hit by severe droughts frequently in recent decades, was selected as the case study site. The short-term CDI was developed by the Principle Component Analysis of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI, the 1- and 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, Z Index (ZIND, the Soil Moisture Index (SMI with the long-term CDI being formulated by use of the self-calibrating Palmer Hydrology Drought Index (sc-PHDI, the 6-, 12-, 18- and 24-month SPEI, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI, the SMI. The sc-PDSI, the PHDI, the ZIND, the SPEI on a monthly time scale were calculated based on the monthly air temperature and precipitation, and the monthly SMI and SSI were computed based on the simulated soil moisture and runoff by the distributed Xinanjiang model. The thresholds of the short-term/long-term CDI were determined according to frequency statistics of different drought indices. Finally, the feasibility of the two CDIs was investigated against the scPDSI, the SPEI and the historical drought records. The results revealed that the short-term/long-term CDI could capture the onset, severity, persistence of drought events very well with the former being better at identifying the dynamic evolution of drought condition while the latter better at judging the changing trend of drought over a long time period.

  8. The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index. (United States)

    Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.


    We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

  9. Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Touchan, Ramzi; Meko, David M. [The University of Arizona, Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, Tucson, AZ (United States); Anchukaitis, Kevin J. [Columbia University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Sabir, Mohamed [National School of Forest Engineering, Sale (Morocco); Attalah, Said [University of Ourgla, Department of Agronomy, Ouargla (Algeria); Aloui, Ali [Institute of Sylvo-pastoral of Tabarka, Tabarka (Tunisia)


    Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide long-term context for northwest African hydroclimatology, revealing large-scale regional droughts prior to the sixteenth century, as well as more heterogeneous patterns in sixteenth, eighteenth, and twentieth century. Over the most recent decades a shift toward dry conditions over the region is observed, which is consistent with general circulation model projections of greenhouse gas forced enhanced regional subtropical drought. (orig.)

  10. Tree ring-based seven-century drought records for the Western Himalaya, India (United States)

    Yadav, Ram R.


    The paucity of available instrumental climate records in cold and arid regions of the western Himalaya, India, hampers our understanding of the long-term variability of regional droughts, which seriously affect the agrarian economy of the region. Using ring width chronologies of Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana together from a network of moisture-stressed sites, Palmer Drought Severity Index values for October-May back to 1310 A.D. were developed. The twentieth century features dominant decadal-scale pluvial phases (1981-1995, 1952-1968, and 1918-1934) as compared to the severe droughts in the early seventeenth century (1617-1640) as well as late fifteenth to early sixteenth (1491-1526) centuries. The drought anomalies are positively (negatively) associated with central Pacific (Indo-Pacific Warm Pool) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, non-stationarity in such relationships appears to be the major riddle in the predictability of long-term droughts much needed for the sustainable development of the ecologically sensitive region of the Himalayas.

  11. Climatological aspects of drought in Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, J.C.


    Precipitation and Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI) data have been used to identify past occurrences of Ohio drought, to illustrate the temporal variability occurring statewide within dry periods, and to compare some of the key dry spells to those of 1987-88 and 1991-92. Periods of hydrologic drought and low precipitation generally persist for 2 to 5 years and tend to cluster in time, such as occurred from 1930-1966. It is not uncommon for precipitation to return to normal or near normal conditions while short-term drought persists in terms of streamflow, ground water supply, and runoff, as measured by the PHDI. The period April 1930 to March 1931 is the driest on record in Ohio although longer periods of low precipitation have occurred from 1893-1896, 1952-1955, and 1963-1965. The temporal clusters of droughts are separated by prolonged wet periods, including those extending roughly from 1875-1893, 1905-1924, and 1966-1987. Correlations between Ohio monthly precipitation and mean air temperature suggest that drought is linked to unusually high summer temperatures through mechanisms such as increased evapotranspiration, leading to increased fluxes of sensible heat from dry soil surfaces. In winter, warm conditions tend to favor higher precipitation, soil recharge, and runoff. Variations in mean temperature and atmospheric circulation may also be linked to other observed climatic features such as long-term trends in soil-water recharge season (October-March) precipitation

  12. Reply to Comment on 'Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation' (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathy; Fenwick, Pavla; Cook, Benjamin I.; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice; Grierson, Pauline; Baker, Patrick J.


    This reply is in response to Vance et al (2017), who expressed concern that their Law Dome summer sea salt record (LDsss; Vance et al 2013) and two Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) reconstructions (PLF and DT-median; Vance et al 2015) were not compared properly in our recent study (Palmer et al 2015) describing the eastern Australian and New Zealand summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA) and that this omission mischaracterizes their records.

  13. Correlation between Annual Corn Crop per Hectare in Croatia and Drought Indices for Zagreb-Gric Observatory (United States)

    Pandzic, Kreso; Likso, Tanja


    Correlation coefficients between annual corn crop per hectare in Croatia and 9-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Zagreb - Gric for August are shown as significant. The results indicate that there is also a significant correlation between those drought indices and drought damages. Thus a forecast of the indices for August could be used for estimation e.g. annual corn crop per hectare in Croatia. Better results could be expected if statistical relationship between annual corn crops per hectare will be considered on county level instead the whole Croatia and indices calculated for weather stations for the same county. Effective way for reduction of drought damages is irrigation which need to be significantly improved in future in Croatia

  14. The 2010 spring drought reduced primary productivity in southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li; Li Jing; Xiao Jingfeng; Wang Kun; Lei Liping; Guo Huadong


    Many parts of the world experience frequent and severe droughts. Summer drought can significantly reduce primary productivity and carbon sequestration capacity. The impacts of spring droughts, however, have received much less attention. A severe and sustained spring drought occurred in southwestern China in 2010. Here we examine the influence of this spring drought on the primary productivity of terrestrial ecosystems using data on climate, vegetation greenness and productivity. We first assess the spatial extent, duration and severity of the drought using precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index. We then examine the impacts of the drought on terrestrial ecosystems using satellite data for the period 2000–2010. Our results show that the spring drought substantially reduced the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) during spring 2010 (March–May). Both EVI and GPP also substantially declined in the summer and did not fully recover from the drought stress until August. The drought reduced regional annual GPP and net primary productivity (NPP) in 2010 by 65 and 46 Tg C yr −1 , respectively. Both annual GPP and NPP in 2010 were the lowest over the period 2000–2010. The negative effects of the drought on annual primary productivity were partly offset by the remarkably high productivity in August and September caused by the exceptionally wet conditions in late summer and early fall and the farming practices adopted to mitigate drought effects. Our results show that, like summer droughts, spring droughts can also have significant impacts on vegetation productivity and terrestrial carbon cycling. (letter)

  15. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Martins


    Full Text Available The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI, was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them.

  16. Drought trends indicated by evapotranspiration deficit over the contiguous United States during 1896-2013 (United States)

    Kim, Daeha; Rhee, Jinyoung


    Evapotranspiration (ET) has received a great attention in drought assessment as it is closely related to atmospheric water demand. The hypothetical potential ET (ETp) has been predominantly used, nonetheless it does not actually exist in the hydrologic cycle. In this work, we used a complementary method for ET estimation to obtain wet-environment ET (ETw) and actual ET (ETa) from routinely observed climatic data. By combining ET deficits (ETw minus ETa) and the structure of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we proposed a novel ET-based drought index, the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI). We carried out historical drought identification for the contiguous United States using temperature datasets of the PRISM Climate Group. SEDI presented spatial distributions of drought areas similar to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for major drought events. It indicates that SEDI can be used for validating other drought indices. Using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, we found a significant decreasing trend of SEDI (increasing drought risk) similar to PDSI and SPI in the western United States. This study suggests a potential of ET-based indices for drought quantification even with no involvement of precipitation data.

  17. Monitoring and Assessing the 2012 Drought in the Great Plains: Analyzing Satellite-Retrieved Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Drought Indices, and Gross Primary Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siheng Wang


    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF and several meteorological drought indices, including the multi-time-scale standard precipitation index (SPI and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI, to evaluate the potential of using SIF to monitor and assess drought. We found significant positive relationships between SIF and drought indices during the growing season (from June to September. SIF was found to be more sensitive to short-term SPIs (one or two months and less sensitive to long-term SPI (three months than were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI or the normalized difference water index (NDWI. Significant correlations were found between SIF and PDSI during the growing season for the Great Plains. We found good consistency between SIF and flux-estimated gross primary production (GPP for the years studied, and synchronous declines of SIF and GPP in an extreme drought year (2012. We used SIF to monitor and assess the drought that occurred in the Great Plains during the summer of 2012, and found that although a meteorological drought was experienced throughout the Great Plains from June to September, the western area experienced more agricultural drought than the eastern area. Meanwhile, SIF declined more significantly than NDVI during the peak growing season. Yet for senescence, during which time the reduction of NDVI still went on, the reduction of SIF was eased. Our work provides an alternative to traditional reflectance-based vegetation or drought indices for monitoring and assessing agricultural drought.

  18. Interference of Selected Palmer Amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri Biotypes in Soybean (Glycine max

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aman Chandi


    Full Text Available Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri S. Wats. has become difficult to control in row crops due to selection for biotypes that are no longer controlled by acetolactate synthase inhibiting herbicides and/or glyphosate. Early season interference in soybean [Glycine max (L. Merr.] for 40 days after emergence by three glyphosate-resistant (GR and three glyphosate-susceptible (GS Palmer amaranth biotypes from Georgia and North Carolina was compared in the greenhouse. A field experiment over 2 years compared season-long interference of these biotypes in soybean. The six Palmer amaranth biotypes reduced soybean height similarly in the greenhouse but did not affect soybean height in the field. Reduction in soybean fresh weight and dry weight in the greenhouse; and soybean yield in the field varied by Palmer amaranth biotypes. Soybean yield was reduced 21% by Palmer amaranth at the established field density of 0.37 plant m−2. When Palmer amaranth biotypes were grouped by response to glyphosate, the GS group reduced fresh weight, dry weight, and yield of soybean more than the GR group. The results indicate a possible small competitive disadvantage associated with glyphosate resistance, but observed differences among biotypes might also be associated with characteristics within and among biotypes other than glyphosate resistance.

  19. Climate Projections and Drought: Verification for the Colorado River Basin (United States)

    Santos, N. I.; Piechota, T. C.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.


    The Colorado River Basin has experienced the driest 17 year period (2000-2016) in over 100 years of historical record keeping. While the Colorado River reservoir system began the current drought at near 100% capacity, reservoir storage has fallen to just above 50% during the drought. Even though federal and state water agencies have worked together to mitigate the impact of the drought and have collaboratively sponsored conservation programs and drought contingency plans, the 17-years of observed data beg the question as to whether the most recent climate projections would have been able to project the current drought's severity. The objective of this study is to analyze observations and ensemble projections (e.g. temperature, precipitation, streamflow) from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archive in the Colorado River Basin and compare metrics related to skill scores, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and water supply sustainability index. Furthermore, a sub-ensemble of CMIP3/CMIP5 projections, developed using a teleconnection replication verification technique developed by the author, will also be compared to the observed record to assist in further validating the technique as a usable process to increase skill in climatological projections. In the end, this study will assist to better inform water resource managers about the ability of climate ensembles to project hydroclimatic variability and the appearance of decadal drought periods.

  20. Evaluation of groundwater droughts in Austria (United States)

    Haas, Johannes Christoph; Birk, Steffen


    Droughts are abnormally dry periods that affect various aspects of human life on earth, ranging from negative impacts on agriculture or industry, to being the cause for conflict and loss of human life. The changing climate reinforces the importance of investigations into this phenomenon. Various methods to analyze and classify droughts have been developed. These include drought indices such as the Standard Precipitation Index SPI, the Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI or the Crop Moisture Index CMI. These and other indices consider meteorological parameters and/or their effects on soil moisture. A depletion of soil moisture triggered by low precipitation and high evapotranspiration may also cause reduced groundwater recharge and thus decreasing groundwater levels and reduced groundwater flow to springs, streams, and wetlands. However, the existing indices were generally not designed to address such drought effects on groundwater. Thus, a Standardized Groundwater level Index has recently been proposed by Bloomfied and Marchant (2013). Yet, to our knowledge, this approach has only been applied to consolidated aquifers in the UK. This work analyzes time series of groundwater levels from various, mostly unconsolidated aquifers in Austria in order to characterize the effects of droughts on aquifers in different hydrogeologic and climatic settings as well as under different usage scenarios. In particular, comparisons are made between the water rich Alpine parts of Austria, and the dryer parts situated in the East. The time series of groundwater levels are compared to other data, such as meteorological time series and written weather records about generally accepted phenomena, such as the 2003 European drought and heat wave. Thus, valuable insight is gained into the propagation of meteorological droughts through the soil and the aquifer in different types of hydrogeologic and climatic settings, which provides a prerequisite for the assessment of the aquifers' drought

  1. The North American Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Drought Variability for Climate Modeling and Assessment (United States)

    Cook, E. R.


    The North American Drought Atlas describes a detailed reconstruction of drought variability from tree rings over most of North America for the past 500-1000 years. The first version of it, produced over three years ago, was based on a network of 835 tree-ring chronologies and a 286-point grid of instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). These gridded PDSI reconstructions have been used in numerous published studies now that range from modeling fire in the American West, to the impact of drought on palaeo-Indian societies, and to the determination of the primary causes of drought over North America through climate modeling experiments. Some examples of these applications will be described to illustrate the scientific value of these large-scale reconstructions of drought. Since the development and free public release of Version 1 of the North American Drought Atlas (see, great improvements have been made in the critical tree-ring network used to reconstruct PDSI at each grid point. This network has now been enlarged to 1743 annual tree-ring chronologies, which greatly improves the density of tree-ring records in certain parts of the grid, especially in Canada and Mexico. In addition, the number of tree-ring records that extend back before AD 1400 has been substantially increased. These developments justify the creation of Version 2 of the North American Drought Atlas. In this talk I will describe this new version of the drought atlas and some of its properties that make it a significant improvement over the previous version. The new product provides enhanced resolution of the spatial and temporal variability of prolonged drought such as the late 16th century event that impacted regions of both Mexico and the United States. I will also argue for the North American Drought Atlas being used as a template for the development of large-scale drought reconstructions in other land areas of

  2. Standardized Water Budget Index and Validation in Drought Estimation of Haihe River Basin, North China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Liu


    Full Text Available The physical-based drought indices such as the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI with the fixed time scale is inadequate for the multiscalar drought assessment, and the multiscalar drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI based on the meteorological factors are lack of physical mechanism and cannot depict the actual water budget. To fill this gap, the Standardized Water Budget Index (SWBI is constructed based on the difference between areal precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (AET, which can describe the actual water budget but also assess the drought at multiple time scales. Then, sc-PDSI was taken as the reference drought index to compare with multiscalar drought indices at different time scale in Haihe River basin. The result shows that SWBI correlates better with sc-PDSI and the RMSE of SWBI is less than other multiscalar drought indices. In addition, all of drought indices show a decreasing trend in Haihe River Basin, possibly due to the decreasing precipitation from 1961 to 2010. The decreasing trends of SWBI were significant and consistent at all the time scales, while the decreasing trends of other multiscalar drought indices are insignificant at time scale less than 3 months.

  3. A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L


    We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

  4. Caracterização climatológica da severidade de secas do Estado do Ceará - Brasil Climatological characterization of the drought severity in the State of Ceará - Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarcisio da S. Barra


    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar as secas do Estado do Ceará, com base no índice de severidade de seca de Palmer. Foram utilizadas séries históricas de dados pluviométricos e de temperatura do ar de 21 localidades desse Estado, fornecidas, respectivamente, pela Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Nordeste - SUDENE, e pela Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos - FUNCEME. Foi constatado a ocorrência de secas com diferentes graus de severidade, no Estado do Ceará, sendo as secas moderadas e severas as mais freqüentes.The objective of this work was to characterize the droughts in the State of Ceará based on the Palmer drought severity index. Historical data series of rainfall and air temperature of 21 localities of this State, were provided by the "Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Nordeste - SUDENE", and by the "Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos - FUNCEME", respectively. The occurrences of droughts of different degrees of severity were verified in the State of Ceará, with frequent moderate and severe droughts.

  5. Attributing recent changes in droughts over China: 1961-2013 (United States)

    Sun, Fubao; Zhang, Jie; Xu, Jijun; Chen, Yaning; Sang, Yanfang; Liu, Changming


    It is controversial how droughts respond to global warming for the commonly used drought index: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Here we assess recent changes in the droughts over China (1961-2013) using the PDSI with two different estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite (PDSI_th) and Penman-Monteith (PDSI_pm) approaches. We found that droughts have become more severe in the PDSI_th but slightly lessened in the PDSI_pm estimate. To quantify and attribute that difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm, we designed numerical experiments and found that drying trend of the PDSI_th responding to the global warming alone is 3.4 times higher than that of the PDSI_pm, and the latter was further compensated by decreases in wind speed and solar radiation causing the slightly wetting in the PDSI_pm. Interestingly, we found that inter-basin difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm response to the global warming alone tends to be larger in warmer basins, exponentially depending on mean temperature. References: Zhang, J., F. Sun, J. Xu, Y. Chen, Y. Sang, and C. Liu (2016), Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2015GL067473. Sun, F. B., M. L. Roderick, and G. D. Farquhar (2012), Changes in the variability of global land precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19402, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053369.

  6. Integrated Palmer Amaranth Management in Glufosinate-Resistant Cotton: II. Primary, Secondary and Conservation Tillage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G. Patterson


    Full Text Available A three year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the role of soil inversion, cover crops and spring tillage methods for Palmer amaranth between-row (BR and within-row (WR management in glufosinate-resistant cotton. Main plots were two soil inversion treatments: fall inversion tillage (IT and non-inversion tillage (NIT. Subplots were three cover treatments: crimson clover, cereal rye or none (i.e., winter fallow; and the sub subplots were four secondary spring tillage methods: disking followed by (fb cultivator (DCU, disking fb chisel plow (DCH, disking fb disking (DD and no tillage (NT. Averaged over years and soil inversion, the crimson clover produced maximum cover biomass (4390 kg ha−1 fb cereal rye (3698 kg ha−1 and winter fallow (777 kg ha−1. Two weeks after planting (WAP and before the postemergence (POST application, Palmer amaranth WR and BR density were two- and four-times less, respectively, in IT than NIT. Further, Palmer amaranth WR and BR density were reduced two-fold following crimson clover and cereal rye than following winter fallow at 2 WAP. Without IT, early season Palmer amaranth densities were 40% less following DCU, DCH and DD, when compared with IT. Following IT, no spring tillage method improved Palmer amaranth control. The timely application of glufosinate + S-metolachlor POST tank mixture greatly improved Palmer amaranth control in both IT and NIT systems. The highest cotton yields were obtained with DD following cereal rye (2251 kg ha−1, DD following crimson clover (2213 kg ha−1 and DD following winter fallow (2153 kg ha−1. On average, IT cotton yields (2133 kg ha−1 were 21% higher than NIT (1766 kg ha−1. Therefore, from an integrated weed management standpoint, an occasional fall IT could greatly reduce Palmer amaranth emergence on farms highly infested with glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth. In addition, a cereal rye or crimson clover cover crop can effectively reduce early season Palmer

  7. Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir


    Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

  8. Development of a coastal drought index using salinity data (United States)

    Conrads, Paul; Darby, Lisa S.


    A critical aspect of the uniqueness of coastal drought is the effects on the salinity dynamics of creeks, rivers, and estuaries. The location of the freshwater–saltwater interface along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socioeconomic dynamics of coastal communities. Salinity is a critical response variable that integrates hydrologic and coastal dynamics including sea level, tides, winds, precipitation, streamflow, and tropical storms. The position of the interface determines the composition of freshwater and saltwater aquatic communities as well as the freshwater availability for water intakes. Many definitions of drought have been proposed, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on the water supply. Indices have been developed incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, and groundwater levels. These water-availability drought indices were developed for upland areas and may not be ideal for characterizing coastal drought. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity for the development of a salinity-based coastal drought index. An approach similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was modified and applied to salinity data obtained from sites in South Carolina and Georgia. Using the SPI approach, the index becomes a coastal salinity index (CSI) that characterizes coastal salinity conditions with respect to drought periods of higher-saline conditions and wet periods of higher-freshwater conditions. Evaluation of the CSI indicates that it provides additional coastal response information as compared to the SPI and the Palmer hydrologic drought index, and the CSI can be used for different estuary types and for comparison of conditions along coastlines.

  9. Drought monitoring with soil moisture active passive (SMAP) measurements (United States)

    Mishra, Ashok; Vu, Tue; Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Entekhabi, Dara


    Recent launch of space-borne systems to estimate surface soil moisture may expand the capability to map soil moisture deficit and drought with global coverage. In this study, we use Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture geophysical retrieval products from passive L-band radiometer to evaluate its applicability to forming agricultural drought indices. Agricultural drought is quantified using the Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on SMAP and soil properties (field capacity and available water content) information. The soil properties are computed using pedo-transfer function with soil characteristics derived from Harmonized World Soil Database. The SMAP soil moisture product needs to be rescaled to be compatible with the soil parameters derived from the in situ stations. In most locations, the rescaled SMAP information captured the dynamics of in situ soil moisture well and shows the expected lag between accumulations of precipitation and delayed increased in surface soil moisture. However, the SMAP soil moisture itself does not reveal the drought information. Therefore, the SMAP based SWDI (SMAP_SWDI) was computed to improve agriculture drought monitoring by using the latest soil moisture retrieval satellite technology. The formulation of SWDI does not depend on longer data and it will overcome the limited (short) length of SMAP data for agricultural drought studies. The SMAP_SWDI is further compared with in situ Atmospheric Water Deficit (AWD) Index. The comparison shows close agreement between SMAP_SWDI and AWD in drought monitoring over Contiguous United States (CONUS), especially in terms of drought characteristics. The SMAP_SWDI was used to construct drought maps for CONUS and compared with well-known drought indices, such as, AWD, Palmer Z-Index, sc-PDSI and SPEI. Overall the SMAP_SWDI is an effective agricultural drought indicator and it provides continuity and introduces new spatial mapping capability for drought monitoring. As an

  10. Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.


    Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

  11. Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (United States)

    Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.


    There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

  12. Drought Characteristic Analysis Based on an Improved PDSI in the Wei River Basin of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zou


    Full Text Available In this study, to improve the efficiency of the original Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI_original, we coupled the Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT and PDSI_original to construct a drought index called PDSI_SWAT. The constructed PDSI_SWAT is applied in the Wei River Basin (WRB of China during 1960–2012. The comparison of the PDSI_SWAT with four other commonly used drought indices reveals the effectiveness of the PDSI_SWAT in describing the drought propagation processes in WRB. The whole WRB exhibits a dry trend, with more significant trends in the northern, southeastern and western WRB than the remaining regions. Furthermore, the drought frequencies show that drought seems to occur more likely in the northern part than the southern part of WRB. The principle component analysis method based on the PDSI_SWAT reveals that the whole basin can be further divided into three distinct sub-regions with different drought variability, i.e., the northern, southeastern and western part. Additionally, these three sub-regions are also consistent with the spatial pattern of drought shown by the drought frequency. The wavelet transform analysis method indicates that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO events have strong impacts on inducing droughts in the WRB. The results of this study could be beneficial for a scientific water resources management and drought assessment in the current study area and also provide a valuable reference for other areas with similar climatic characteristics.

  13. Measures of Groundwater Drought from the Long-term Monitoring Data in Korea (United States)

    Chung, E.; Park, J.; Woo, N. C.


    Recently, drought has been increased in its severity and frequency along the climate change in Korea. There are several criteria for alarming drought, for instance, based on the no-rainfall days, the amount of stream discharge, and the water levels of reservoirs. However, farmers depending on groundwater still have been suffered in preparing drought especially in the Spring. No-rainfall days continue, groundwater exploitation increases, water table declines, stream discharge decreases, and then the effects of drought become serious. Thus, the drought index based on the groundwater level is needed for the preparedness of drought disaster. Palmer et al.(1965, USGS) has proposed a method to set the threshold for the decline of the groundwater level in 5 stages based on the daily water-level data over the last 30 years. In this study, according to Peters et al.(2003), the threshold of groundwater level was estimated using the daily water-level data at five sites with significant drought experiences in Korea. Water levels and precipitations data were obtained from the national groundwater monitoring wells and the automatic weather stations, respectively, for 10 years from 2005 to 2014. From the water-level changes, the threshold was calculated when the value of the drought criterion (c), the ratio of the deficit below the threshold to the deficit below the average, is 0.3. As a result, the monthly drought days were high in 2009 and 2011 in Uiryeong, and from 2005 to 2008 in Boeun. The validity of the approach and the threshold can be evaluated by comparing calculated monthly drought days with recorded drought in the past. Through groundwater drought research, it is expected that not only surface water also groundwater resource management should be implemented more efficiently to overcome drought disaster.

  14. Palmer Quest: A Feasible Nuclear Fission "Vision Mission" to the Mars Polar Caps (United States)

    Carsey, F. D.; Beegle, L. W.; Nakagawa, R.; Elliott, J. O.; Matthews, J. B.; Coleman, M. L.; Hecht, M. H.; Ivaniov, A. B.; Head, J. W.; Milkovich, S.


    We are engaged in a NASA Vision Mission study, called Palmer Quest after the American Antarctic explorer Nathaniel Palmer, to assess the presence of life and evaluate the habitability of the basal domain of the Mars polar caps. We address this goal through four objectives: 1. Determine the presence of amino acids, nutrients, and geochemical heterogeneity in the ice sheet. 2. Quantify and characterize the provenance of the amino acids in Mars ice. 3. Assess the stratification of outcropped units for indications of habitable zones. 4. Determine the accumulation of ice, mineralogic material, and amino acids in Mars ice caps over the present epoch. Because of the defined scientific goal for the vision mission, the Palmer Quest focus is astrobiological; however, the results of the study make us optimistic that aggressive multi-platform in-situ missions that address a wide range of objectives, such as climate change, can be supported by variations of the approach used on this mission. Mission Overview: The Palmer Quest baseline

  15. Sensitivity analysis of the Commonly Used Drought Indices on the different land use Types - Case Study over Turkey (United States)

    Ersoy, E. N.; Hüsami Afşar, M.; Bulut, B.; Onen, A.; Yilmaz, M. T.


    Droughts are climatic phenomenon that may impact large and small regions alike for long or short time periods and influence society in terms of industrial, agricultural, domestic and many more aspects. The characteristics of the droughts are commonly investigated using indices like Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). On the other hand, these indices may not necessarily yield similar performance over different vegetation types. The aim is to analyze the sensitivity of drought indices (SPI, SPEI, PDSI) to vegetation types over different climatic regions in Turkey. Here the magnitude of the drought severity is measured using MODIS NDVI data, while the vegetation type (e.g., non-irrigated arable lands, vineyards, fruit trees and berry plantations, olive groves, pastures, land principally occupied by agriculture) information is obtained using CORINE land cover classification. This study has compared the drought characteristics and vegetation conditions on different land use types using remotely sensed datasets (e.g., CORINE land use data, MODIS NDVI), and commonly used drought indices between 2000 and 2016 using gauge based precipitation and temperature measurements.

  16. Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Qing; LI MingXing; ZHENG ZiYan; MA ZhuGuo


    The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research.However,because of the complexity of drought,there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time.Therefore,it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices.Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment,and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China,we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices:the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI),modified PDSI(PDSI_CN) based on observations in China,self-calibrating PDSI(scPDSI),Surface Wetness Index(SWI),Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing(CLM3.5/ObsFC).The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China.However,it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN;thus,the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly.Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters.The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas.This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI,but overestimated in the SPEI,when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas.Consequently,the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results,respectively.The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000,but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000.Consistent with other drought indices,the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations.Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven

  17. Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices (United States)

    Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.


    In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

  18. El palmeral de Elche: patrimonio, gestión y turismo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Larrosa Rocamora


    Full Text Available El palmeral histórico de Elche es un sistema agrícola de origen árabe estructurado en parcelas rectangulares, en cuyos límites están plantadas las palmeras. El indudable valor patrimonial de este espacio, protegido legalmente desde 1933, ha sido reafirmado y aumentado en la década de 1990 gracias a la ampliación del concepto de patrimonio hacia los bienes de la tradición popular: fiestas, actividades, técnicas, etc. En este contexto, la UNESCO declaró el palmeral histórico de Elche como Patrimonio de la Humanidad en el año 2000, y con ello se han abierto las puertas del desarrollo del turismo en la ciudad. Sin embargo, la gestión de este espacio no ha sido ni es la más adecuada, en parte debido a la falsa imagen que ha trascendido del palmeral como jardín exótico, imagen que ha sido reproducida en muchos huertos abiertos al público en general y a la actividad turística en particular. La aparición en los últimos años de nuevas tendencias motivacionales en la demanda turística, entre las cuales se halla el aumento de la valoración y la búsqueda de todo lo relacionado con la cultura, abre nuevas posibilidades al desarrollo de un turismo que ayude a proteger y a conservar el palmeral con su impronta agrícola intacta.

  19. Climate trends and behaviour of drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paulo


    Full Text Available Distinction between drought and aridity is crucial to understand water scarcity processes. Drought indices are used for drought identification and drought severity characterisation. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI are the most known drought indices. In this study, they are compared with the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. MedPDSI results from the soil water balance of an olive crop, thus real evapotranspiration is considered, while SPEI uses potential (climatic evapotranspiration. Similarly to the SPI, SPEI can be computed at various time scales. Aiming at understanding possible impacts of climate change, prior to compare the drought indices, a trend analysis relative to precipitation and temperature in 27 weather stations of Portugal was performed for the period 1941 to 2006. A trend for temperature increase was observed for some weather stations and trends for decreasing precipitation in March and increasing in October were also observed for some locations. Comparisons of the SPI and SPEI at 9- and 12-month time scales, the PDSI and MedPDSI were performed for the same stations and period. SPI and SPEI produce similar results for the same time scales concerning drought occurrence and severity. PDSI and MedPDSI correlate well between them and the same happened for SPI and SPEI. PDSI and MedPDSI identify more severe droughts than SPI or SPEI and identify drought occurrence earlier than these indices. This behaviour is likely to be related with the fact that a water balance is performed with PDSI and MedPDSI, which better approaches the supply-demand balance.

  20. Drought assessment by evapotranspiration mapping in Twente (United States)

    Eden, U.; Timmermans, J.; van der Velde, R.; Su, Z.


    Drought is a reoccurring worldwide problem with impacts ranging from food production to infrastructure. Droughts are different from other natural hazards (floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes) because the effects can only be witnessed slowly and with a time delay. Effects of droughts are diverse, like famine and migration of people. Droughts are caused by natural causes but also by interaction between the natural events and water demand. Not only typical dry regions, like the Horn of Africa, are affected, but even semi-humid environments, like Europe. Temperature rise and precipitation deficit in the summers of 2003 and 2006 caused substantial crop losses in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands. In addition increased river water temperatures and low water levels caused cooling problems for power plants. Heat waves and prolonged absence of precipitation is expected to increase due to climate change. Therefore assessing and monitoring drought in the Netherlands is thus very important. Various drought indices are available to assess the severity, duration and spatial extend of the drought. Some of the commonly indices used are Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). However each of these indices do not take into account the actual state of the land surface in respect to the dryness. By analysing drought through actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimations from remote sensing this can be circumvented. The severity of the droughts was quantified by ET-mapping from 2003-2010. The assessment was based on the spatial and temporal distribution of ET using the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) drought index. Surface energy fluxes, like ET, were estimated using WACMOS methodology. The input data consisted of remote sensing products like land surface temperature, LAI, and albedo from MODIS; and meteorological data like air-temperature, humidity and wind speed from the European Centre for Medium weather forecast (ECMWF

  1. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin, China and Its Responses to Global Climatic Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jizhong Qiu


    Full Text Available The Xijiang River is a main branch of the Pearl River, the largest river in South China. Droughts in this area have seriously influenced local water resource utilization, and socio-economic development. The spatiotemporal distribution of droughts and its responses to global climatic events are of critical significance for the assessment and early warning of drought disasters. In this paper, the spatiotemporal patterns of droughts characterized by Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function/Rotated Principal Components (REOF/RPC in the Xijiang River Basin, China were evaluated using the Self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (Sc-PDSI. The drought responses to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, India Ocean Dipole (IOD, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO were analysed by Pearson correlation and multiple stepwise regression. The results showed that one year earlier NAO was the dominant factor impacting the droughts in the Xijiang Basin. Its contribution for the RPC2s of the annual, the first and second half years, winter, summer, autumn, and February were −0.556, −0.419, 0.597, −0.447, 0.542, 0.600, and −0.327, respectively. Besides the two adjacent Pacific and India oceans, the droughts seem be influenced by distant Atlantic climatic events. These results offer new reference insights into the early warning of droughts as well as the planning and management of water resources in the study area.

  2. History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John Thomas; Brigham-Grette, Julia


    Paleoclimatic records show that the Greenland Ice Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-shee...

  3. Multi-component time, spatial and frequency analysis of Paleoclimatic Data (United States)

    Cristiano, Luigia; Stampa, Johannes; Feeser, Ingo; Dörfler, Walter; Meier, Thomas


    The investigation of the paleoclimatic data offers a powerful tool for understanding the impact of extreme climatic events as well as gradual climatic variations on the human development and cultural changes. The current global record of paleoclimatic data is relatively rich but is not generally uniformly structured and regionally distributed. The general characteristic of the reconstructed time series of paleoclimatic data is a not constant sampling interval and data resolution together with the presence of gaps in the record. Our database consists of pollen concentration from annually laminated lake sediments in two sites in Northern Germany. Such data characteristic offers the possibility for high-resolution palynological and sedimentological analyses on a well constrained time scale. Specifically we are interested to investigate the time dependence of proxies, and time and spatial correlation of the different observables respect each other. We present here a quantitative analysis of the pollent data in the frequency and time. In particular we are interested to understand the complexity of the system and understand the cause of sudden as well as the slow changes in the time dependence of the observables. We show as well our approach for handling the not uniform sampling interval and the broad frequency content characterizing the paleoclimatic databases. In particular we worked to the development of a robust data analysis to answer the key questions about the correlation between rapid climatic changes and changes in the human habits and quantitatively elaborate a model for the processed data. Here we present the preliminary results on synthetics as well as on real data for the data visualization for the trend identification with a smoothing procedure, for the identification of sharp changes in the data as function of time with AutoRegressive approach. In addition to that we use the cross-correlation and cross spectrum by applying the Multiple Filtering Technique

  4. Timescale differences between SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought monitoring in China (United States)

    Zhao, Haiyan; Gao, Ge; An, Wei; Zou, Xukai; Li, Haitao; Hou, Meiting


    The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been widely used to monitor drought. Its characteristics are more suitable for measuring droughts of longer timescales, and this fact has not received much attention. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) can better reflect the climatic water balance, owing to its combination of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, we selected monthly average air temperature and precipitation data from 589 meteorological stations of China's National Meteorological Information Center, to compare the effects of applying a self-calibrating PDSI (SC-PDSI) and SPEI to monitor drought events in the station regions, with a special focus on differences of event timescale. The results show the following. 1) Comparative analysis using SC-PDSI and SPEI for drought years and characters of three dry periods from 1961 to 2011 in the Beijing region showed that durations of SC-PDSI-based dry spells were longer than those of 3-month and 6-month SPEIs, but equal to those of 12-month or longer timescale SPEIs. 2) For monitoring evolution of the fall 2009 to spring 2010 Southwest China drought and spring 2000 Huang-Huai drought, 3-month SPEI could better monitor the initiation, aggravation, alleviation and relief of drought in the two regions, whereas the SC-PDSI was insensitive to drought recovery because of its long-term memory of previous climate conditions. 3) Analysis of the relationship between SC-PDSI for different regions and SPEI for different timescales showed that correlation of the two indexes changed with region, and SC-PDSI was maximally correlated with SPEI of 9-19 months in China. Therefore, SC-PDSI is only suitable for monitoring mid- and long-term droughts, owing to the strong lagged autocorrelation such as 0.4786 for 12-month lagged ones in Beijing, whereas SPEI is suitable for both short- and long-term drought-monitoring and should have greater application prospects in China.

  5. Drought sensitivity changes over the last century at the North American savanna-forest boundary (United States)

    Heilman, K.; McLachlan, J. S.


    Future environmental changes can affect the sensitivity of tree growth to climate. Theses changes are of particular concern at biome boundaries where tree distribution could shift as a result of changes in both drought and drought sensitivity. One such region is the North American savanna-forest boundary, where increased CO2 and droughts could alter savanna and forest ecosystem distributions in two contrasting ways: 1). More severe droughts may increase drought sensitivity, favoring open savanna ecosystems or, 2). Increases in water use efficiency resulting from higher atmospheric CO2 may decrease drought sensitivity, promoting forest expansion. This study sought to understand whether the past 100 years of climate and CO2 changes have impacted regional tree growth-climate sensitivity. To test for these climate sensitivity changes, we measured the sensitivity of Quercus spp. radial growth to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Tree growth sensitivity to climate can vary according to many factors, including: stand structure, available moisture, and tree age. To control for these factors, we sampled tree growth-climate responses at sites in both open and closed forests, and at both low and high annual precipitation. Within each site, we compared growth responses to climate between trees established under high CO2 conditions after 1950 (high CO2 young), and tree established before 1950 under low CO2 levels (low CO2 young). At most sites, low CO2 young have a higher drought sensitivity than higher CO2 young. These changes in the sensitivity to drought are consistent with CO2 enhancement of water use efficiency. Furthermore, these differences in drought sensitivity are higher at sites with high temperature and low precipitation, suggesting that the alleviation of drought is more likely in hot and dry regions. Thus, if CO2 enhancement is indeed occurring in these systems, lower growth sensitivity to drought in hot and dry regions could favor increased forest growth. If

  6. Application of recurrent neural networks for drought projections in California (United States)

    Le, J. A.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allali, M.; Struppa, D. C.


    We use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend, contrasting with the 1998-1999 El Niño event. RNN training considered PZI data during 1896-2006 that was validated against the 2006-2015 period to evaluate the potential of extreme precipitation forecast. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. The 2015-2016 El Niño season proved to be relatively weak as compared with the 1997-1998, with a peak PZI anomaly of 0.242 standard deviations below historical averages, continuing drought conditions.

  7. Dendrochronological assessment of drought severity indices for Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A. (United States)

    McKee, A.; Aulenbach, B. T.


    Quantifying the relation between drought severity and tree growth is important to predict future growth rates as climate change effects the frequency and severity of future droughts. Two commonly used metrics of drought severity are the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). These indices are often calculated from proximal weather station data and therefore may not be very accurate at the local watershed scale. The accuracy of these commonly used measures of drought severity was compared to a recently developed, locally calibrated model of water limitation based on the difference between potential and actual evapotranspiration (ETDIFF). Relative accuracies of the drought indices were assessed on the strength of correlations with a 20-year tree-ring index chronology (1986-2006) developed from 22 loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) trees in water-limited landscape positions at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), a 41-hectare forested watershed located in north-central Georgia. We used SPI and PDSI index values from the weather station located at the Atlanta Airport, approximately 36 kilometers from PMRW. ETDIFF was calculated based on precipitation, temperature, runoff, and solar radiation data collected at PMRW. Annual index values for all three drought indices were calculated as the mean value over the growing season (May to September). All three indices had significant Pearson correlations with the tree-ring index (p = 0.044, 0.007, 0.002 for SPI, PDSI, and ETDIFF, respectively). The ETDIFF method had the strongest correlation (R2 = 0.40) compared to SPI and PDSI results (R2 = 0.19 and 0.32, respectively). Results suggest SPI and PDSI provided a general measure of drought conditions, however, the locally calibrated model of water limitation appears to measure drought severity more accurately. Future studies on the ecological effects of drought may benefit from adopting ETDIFF as a measure of drought severity.

  8. Impact of Drought on Groundwater and Soil Moisture - A Geospatial Tool for Water Resource Management (United States)

    Ziolkowska, J. R.; Reyes, R.


    For many decades, recurring droughts in different regions in the US have been negatively impacting ecosystems and economic sectors. Oklahoma and Texas have been suffering from exceptional and extreme droughts in 2011-2014, with almost 95% of the state areas being affected (Drought Monitor, 2015). Accordingly, in 2011 alone, around 1.6 billion were lost in the agricultural sector alone as a result of drought in Oklahoma (Stotts 2011), and 7.6 billion in Texas agriculture (Fannin 2012). While surface water is among the instant indicators of drought conditions, it does not translate directly to groundwater resources that are the main source of irrigation water. Both surface water and groundwater are susceptible to drought, while groundwater depletion is a long-term process and might not show immediately. However, understanding groundwater availability is crucial for designing water management strategies and sustainable water use in the agricultural sector and other economic sectors. This paper presents an interactive geospatially weighted evaluation model and a tool at the same time to analyze groundwater resources that can be used for decision support in water management. The tool combines both groundwater and soil moisture changes in Oklahoma and Texas in 2003-2014, thus representing the most important indicators of agricultural and hydrological drought. The model allows for analyzing temporal and geospatial long-term drought at the county level. It can be expanded to other regions in the US and the world. The model has been validated with the Palmer Drought Index Severity Index to account for other indicators of meteorological drought. It can serve as a basis for an upcoming socio-economic and environmental analysis of drought events in the short and long-term in different geographic regions.

  9. Research Ship Nathaniel B. Palmer Underway Meteorological Data, Quality Controlled (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Research Ship Nathaniel B. Palmer Underway Meteorological Data (delayed ~10 days for quality control) are from the Shipboard Automated Meteorological and...

  10. Prokofiev: War and Peace - Symphonic Suite (arr. Palmer) / Ivan March

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    March, Ivan


    Uuest heliplaadist "Prokofiev: War and Peace - Symphonic Suite (arr. Palmer), Summer Night, Op. 123. Russian Overture, Op. 72. Philharmonia Orchestra / Neeme Järvi. Chandos ABTD 1598 CHAN9096 (64 minutes:DDD) Igor - Polovtsian Dances

  11. Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa (United States)

    Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew


    Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971-2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6-12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 %. However, a 1-6 % decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Niño episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent.

  12. Assessing the Influence of the Three Gorges Dam on Hydrological Drought Using GRACE Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fupeng Li


    Full Text Available With worldwide economic and social development, more dams are being constructed to meet the increasing demand for hydropower, which may considerably influence hydrological drought. Here, an index named the “Dam Influence Index” (DII is proposed to assess the influence of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD on hydrological drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB in China. First, the total terrestrial water storage (TTWS is derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data. Then, the natural-driven terrestrial water storage (NTWS is predicted from the soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature data based on an artificial neural network model. Finally, the DII is derived using the empirical (Kaplan-Meier cumulative distribution function of the differences between the TTWS and the NTWS. The DIIs of the three sub-basins in the YRB were 1.38, −4.66, and −7.32 between 2003 and 2008, which indicated an increase in TTWS in the upper sub-basin and a reduction in the middle and lower sub-basins. According to the results, we concluded that impoundments of the TGD between 2003 and 2008 slightly alleviated the hydrological drought in the upper sub-basin and significantly aggravated the hydrological drought in the middle and lower sub-basins, which is consistent with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. This study provides a new perspective for estimating the effects of large-scale human activities on hydrological drought and a scientific decision-making basis for the managing water resources over the operation of the TGD.

  13. Proloculus size variation in Recent benthic foraminifera: Implications for paleoclimatic studies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.; Rao, A.S.

    Ratios of dimorphic (microspheric/megalospheric) forms of Foraminifera are affected by temperature and hence are useful in paleoclimatic studies. In some cases, however, it is not possible to distinguish between the dimorphic forms and, therefore...

  14. Drought early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila


    Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in

  15. Subsurface geology off Bombay with paleoclimatic inferences interpreted from shallow seismic profiles

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bhattacharya, G.C.; Almeida, F.; Vora, K.H.; Siddiquie, H.N.

    High resolution seismic reflection profiles nearshore areas off Bombay provide information on subsurface geology and permit certain paleoclimatic inferences. Three sedimentary units overlie the acoustic basement: late Pleistocene consolidated...

  16. Application of NARR-based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring (United States)

    Alonge, C. J.; Cosgrove, B. A.


    radiation. Multiple LSM simulations have been conducted using the Noah, Mosaic, CLM3, HYSSiB, and Catchment LSMs. These simulations, along with the NARR-based forcing data form the basis for several drought indices. These include standard measures such as the Palmer-type indices, LDAS-type percentile and anomaly values, and CLM3-based vegetation condition index values.

  17. Evaluation of the paleoclimatic effect in the exploration of subsurface temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuchs, Sven; Balling, N.; Förster, Andrea

    and temperature gradients may be overprinted by the long term paleoclimatic effect of glacial and interglacial periods. This effect generally yields, for depths day near-surface heat flow, which is lower than the undisturbed terrestrial heat flow from greater depths. The North...

  18. Climatic Droughts and the Impacts on Crop Yields in Northern India during the Past Century (United States)

    Ge, Y.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.


    Drought has become an increasingly severe threat to water and food security recently. This study presents a novel method to calculate the return period of drought, considering drought as event characterized by expected drought inter-arrival time, duration, severity and peak intensity. Recently, Copula distribution, a multivariable probability distribution, is used to deal with strongly correlated variables in analyzing complex hydrologic phenomenon. This study assesses drought conditions in Northern India, including 8 sites, in the past century using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from two latest datasets, Dai (2011, 2013) and Sheffield et al. (2012), which concluded conflicting results about global average drought trend. Our results include the change of the severity, intensity and duration of drought events during the past century and the impact of the drought condition on crop yields in the region. It is found that drought variables are highly correlated, thus copulas joint distribution enables the estimation of multi-variate return period. Based on Dai's dataset from 1900 to 2012, for a fixed drought return period the severity and duration is lower for the period before1955 in sites close to the Indus basin (site 1) or off the coast of the Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal) (site 8), while they are higher for the period after 1955 in other inland sites (sites 3-7), (e.g., severity in Fig.1). Projections based on two models (IPCC AR4 and AR5) in Dai (2011, 2013) suggested less severity and shorter duration in longer-year drought (e.g., 100-year drought), but larger in shorter-year drought (e.g., 2-year drought). Drought could bring nonlinear responses and unexpected losses in agriculture system, thus prediction and management are essential. Therefore, in the years with extreme drought conditions, impact assessment of drought on crop yield of corn, barley, wheat and sorghum will be also conducted through correlating crop yields with drought conditions during

  19. Integrated Palmer Amaranth Management in Glufosinate-Resistant Cotton: I. Soil-Inversion, High-Residue Cover Crops and Herbicide Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael G. Patterson


    Full Text Available A three year field experiment was conducted to evaluate the role of soil-inversion, cover crops and herbicide regimes for Palmer amaranth between-row (BR and within-row (WR management in glufosinate-resistant cotton. The main plots were two soil-inversion treatments: fall inversion tillage (IT and non-inversion tillage (NIT. The subplots were three cover crop treatments: crimson clover, cereal rye and winter fallow; and sub subplots were four herbicide regimes: preemergence (PRE alone, postemergence (POST alone, PRE + POST and a no herbicide check (None. The PRE herbicide regime consisted of a single application of pendimethalin at 0.84 kg ae ha−1 plus fomesafen at 0.28 kg ai ha−1. The POST herbicide regime consisted of a single application of glufosinate at 0.60 kg ai ha−1 plus S-metolachlor at 0.54 kg ai ha−1 and the PRE + POST regime combined the prior two components. At 2 weeks after planting (WAP cotton, Palmer amaranth densities, both BR and WR, were reduced ≥90% following all cover crop treatments in the IT. In the NIT, crimson clover reduced Palmer amaranth densities >65% and 50% compared to winter fallow and cereal rye covers, respectively. At 6 WAP, the PRE and PRE + POST herbicide regimes in both IT and NIT reduced BR and WR Palmer amaranth densities >96% over the three years. Additionally, the BR density was reduced ≥59% in no-herbicide (None following either cereal rye or crimson clover when compared to no-herbicide in the winter fallow. In IT, PRE, POST and PRE + POST herbicide regimes controlled Palmer amaranth >95% 6 WAP. In NIT, Palmer amaranth was controlled ≥79% in PRE and ≥95% in PRE + POST herbicide regimes over three years. POST herbicide regime following NIT was not very consistent. Averaged across three years, Palmer amaranth controlled ≥94% in PRE and PRE + POST herbicide regimes regardless of cover crop. Herbicide regime effect on cotton yield was highly significant; the maximum cotton yield was

  20. A paleoclimatic simulation of the Late Permian greenhouse world and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, G.T.; Jacobson, S.R.; Hayashida, D.N. (Chevron Oil Field Research Co., La Habra, CA (United States))


    Sea-floor spreading assembled all the major cratonic blocks into a single supercontinent once in the Phanerozoic Eon. This unique Late Permian crustal tectonic event produced Pangaea and an enormous oceanic basin volume that dropped sea level to a global lowstand unrivaled in the Phanerozoic. Two paleoclimatic simulations using a numerical three-dimensional general circulation model tested changes in the greenhouse effect. The authors conclude that for a simulation to fit the Late Permian geologic record, the paleoatmosphere must contain an enhanced greenhouse gas effect. A third simulation tested changes of paleogeography in southern Pangaea (Gondwana) that did not appreciably alter the harsh continental paleoclimate. The simulated paleoclimatic changes provide extraordinarily warm ocean and atmosphere, and a significant reduction in continental rainfall and runoff. These conditions inevitably lead to more aridity and less vegetation on land, gradually reduce the delivery of vital nutrients from continental sources to marine margins, systematically liberate CO{sub 2} dissolved in ocean water, and incrementally increase stress on marine and terrestrial biotas. These consequences severely disrupted rates of oxygen and carbon cycling. Their quantitative paleoclimatic simulation is consistent with distributions of red beds, evaporites, coals, marine shelf areas, seawater isotope trends, and paleontologic originations and extinctions. Thus, the Pangaean plate assembly probably triggered an inexorable sequence of geophysical, geochemical, and biological events that forced an elevated greenhouse effect in the Late Permian, nearly annihilating the Phanerozoic biota.

  1. Hydroids from submarine cliffs near Arthur Harbour, Palmer Archipelago, Antarctica

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, W.


    At the instigation of Dr. Joel W. Hedgpeth, Resident Director, Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport, Oregon, U.S.A., I studied samples of hydroids, collected by Dr. John C. McCain and Dr. William E. Stout from submarine cliffs in the region around Palmer Station, Antarctica. The

  2. Genetic sampling of Palmer's chipmunks in the Spring Mountains, Nevada (United States)

    Kevin S. McKelvey; Jennifer E. Ramirez; Kristine L. Pilgrim; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael K. Schwartz


    Palmer's chipmunk (Neotamias palmeri) is a medium-sized chipmunk whose range is limited to the higher-elevation areas of the Spring Mountain Range, Nevada. A second chipmunk species, the Panamint chipmunk (Neotamias panamintinus), is more broadly distributed and lives in lower-elevation, primarily pinyon-juniper (Pinus monophylla-Juniperus osteosperma) habitat...

  3. Effects of drought on leaf gas exchange in an eastern broadleaf deciduous forest (United States)

    Roman, D. T.; Brzostek, E. R.; Dragoni, D.; Rahman, A. F.; Novick, K. A.; Phillips, R.


    Understanding plant physiological adaptations to drought is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem productivity that result from climate variability and future climate change. From 2011-2013, southern Indiana experienced a late growing season drought in 2011, a severe early season drought in 2012, and a wet growing season in 2013 characterized by an absence of water stress with frequent precipitation and milder temperatures. The 2012 drought was unique due to the severity and early onset drought conditions (compared to the more frequent late season drought) and was characterized by a Palmer Drought severity index below -4 and precipitation totals from May - July that were 70% less than the long-term (2000 - 2010) mean. During the 2012 drought, an 11% decline in net ecosystem productivity relative to the long-term mean was observed at the AmeriFlux tower in Morgan Monroe State Forest despite a growing season that started ~25 days earlier. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate species-specific contributions to the canopy-scale response to inter-annual variability in water stress. We investigated differences between tree species in their response to climate variability using weekly leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential measurements during the growing seasons of 2011-2013. We used this unique dataset, collected at the top of the canopy with a 25 m boom lift, to evaluate changes in leaf water status and maximum assimilation capacity in the drought versus non-drought years. The leaf-level physiology of oak (Quercus) species appears to be less sensitive to drought than other species (tulip poplar [Liriodendron tulipifera], sassafras [Sassafras albidum] and sugar maple [Acer saccharum]). Preliminary data shows mean canopy leaf water potential for oaks was 30.5% more negative in May-July 2012 versus the same time period in 2013. During these same periods the rate of C assimilation in oaks was reduced by only 3%, whereas other species were reduced by

  4. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Chen, Yaning; Pan, Yingping; Li, Weihong


    We studied the drought patterns in the arid region of northwestern China between 1960 and 2010 using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The general evolution of drought was obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Additionally, relationships between rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and seven selected climate indices were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Four moisture-related spatial patterns (North Xinjiang, western South Xinjiang, Central Xinjiang, and the Hexi Corridor) were objectively defined by REOF analysis. These patterns are related to distinct geographical areas and are associated with distinct temporal variations. (2) The PDSI increased significantly in most regions of Xinjiang, while decreased in the eastern Hexi Corridor. The significant 4-8 year band is the major period band for the annual and seasonal PDSI derived. (3) The seasonal REOFs (RPCs) and EOFs (PCs) have consistent spatial distribution patterns with the annual REOF. The seasonal trends of PDSI are also the same as the annual PDSI trends, indicating space-time consistency between annual PDSI and seasonal PDSI. (4) The drought evolution in this region is affected by the area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, the changes of drought in South Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor may also be associated with the Tibetan Plateau High. Changes in drought pattern are expected to have a strong impact on the economic livelihood of the region, especially for agricultural production.

  5. Bürgerengagement und Protestpolitik. Das politische Wirken des „Remstalrebellen“ Helmut Palmer und die Reaktionen seiner Mitmenschen


    Knauer, Jan


    Die Dissertation untersucht politische Kommunikation, Protestpolitik und Bürgerengagement in der Bundesrepublik anhand des politischen Einzelkämpfers Helmut Palmer (1930-2004), des „Remstalrebellen“. Helmut Palmer zählt zu den bemerkenswertesten Persönlichkeiten in der Geschichte des Bundeslandes Baden-Württemberg. Mit seinem Wirken als Protestpolitiker ohne Unterstützung durch eine Organisation oder Partei prägte er seit den 1960er Jahren in ca. 300 Bürgermeister-, Landtags- und Bundestagswa...

  6. Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA (United States)

    Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok


    The quantification of spatio-temporal hydroclimatic extreme events is a key variable in water resources planning, disaster mitigation, and preparing climate resilient society. However, quantification of these extreme events has always been a great challenge, which is further compounded by climate variability and change. Recently complex network theory was applied in earth science community to investigate spatial connections among hydrologic fluxes (e.g., rainfall and streamflow) in water cycle. However, there are limited applications of complex network theory for investigating hydroclimatic extreme events. This article attempts to provide an overview of complex networks and extreme events, event synchronization method, construction of networks, their statistical significance and the associated network evaluation metrics. For illustration purpose, we apply the complex network approach to study the spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Continental USA (CONUS). A different drought threshold leads to a new drought event as well as different socio-economic implications. Therefore, it would be interesting to explore the role of thresholds on spatio-temporal evolution of drought through network analysis. In this study, long term (1900-2016) Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) was selected for spatio-temporal drought analysis using three network-based metrics (i.e., strength, direction and distance). The results indicate that the drought events propagate differently at different thresholds associated with initiation of drought events. The direction metrics indicated that onset of mild drought events usually propagate in a more spatially clustered and uniform approach compared to onsets of moderate droughts. The distance metric shows that the drought events propagate for longer distance in western part compared to eastern part of CONUS. We believe that the network-aided metrics utilized in this study can be an important tool in advancing our knowledge on drought

  7. A comparative analysis of surface winds in the Mid-Continental United States of America during severe droughts in the 1950s and 2010s. (United States)

    McCarter, R.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Schepanski, K.; Gill, T. E.


    In 2011 the Mid-Continental United States of America experienced its worst drought since the 1930s `Dust Bowl` and subsequent 1950s Southwest drought. Both the 1950s and 2010s droughts have had negative ecological and economic impacts the Mid-Continental US (i.e. crops, livestock, fuel, and transportation). Drought distribution, severity, and duration in North America are influenced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate variability as well as mesoscale land-surface forcing. Intense surface heating during a drought's summer months promotes dry convection and convergence thereby indirectly increasing dust emissions through increased surface-winds. Thus, drought years are frequently linked with increased dust storms and overall dust production that can affect visibility, crop production, and human health. Another important aspect that influences dust production is the potential change in behavior of surface winds during different drought and non-drought regimes over the past 60 years. This investigation compares historic and modern surface winds to determine if the wind-driven drought and dust producing conditions have changed. We examine hourly wind speed data from 79 meteorological stations distributed over the mid-continental USA (25° to 49°N,-116° to -93°W) for two drought periods (1954-1956, 2011-2013), and two relatively wet time periods (1983-1987, 1992-1998), as determined using the Palmer-Drought Severity Index. Our preliminary examination of annual and seasonal distributions of wind speed and show that wind speeds were statistically higher during the 1950s compared with the 2010s drought and wind speeds were also greater during the spring months compared to other seasons. Characterizing these winds is a first step in identifying if these changes are a result of land surface changes, general circulation changes associated with atmospheric anomalies, and/or climate change.

  8. Volney B. Palmer, 1799-1864: The Nation's First Advertising Agency Man. (United States)

    Holland, Donald R.

    This monograph examines the life of Volney B. Palmer, who was the prototype of the modern advertising person. The first section discusses his background and early experience in Pennsylvania. The second section discusses the American Newspaper Agency, established as the first advertising agency in 1842. The third section examines the kind of man…

  9. Project CONVERGE: Initial Results From the Mapping of Surface Currents in Palmer Deep (United States)

    Statscewich, H.; Kohut, J. T.; Winsor, P.; Oliver, M. J.; Bernard, K. S.; Cimino, M. A.; Fraser, W.


    The Palmer Deep submarine canyon on the Western Antarctic Peninsula provides a conduit for upwelling of relatively warm, nutrient rich waters which enhance local primary production and support a food web productive enough to sustain a large top predator biomass. In an analysis of ten years of satellite-tagged penguins, Oliver et al. (2013) showed that circulation features associated with tidal flows may be a key driver of nearshore predator distributions. During diurnal tides, the penguins feed close to their breeding colonies and during semi-diurnal tides, the penguins make foraging trips to the more distant regions of Palmer Deep. It is hypothesized that convergent features act to concentrate primary producers and aggregate schools of krill that influence the behavior of predator species. The initial results from a six month deployment of a High Frequency Radar network in Palmer Deep are presented in an attempt to characterize and quantify convergent features. During a three month period from January through March 2015, we conducted in situ sampling consisting of multiple underwater glider deployments, small boat acoustic surveys of Antarctic krill, and penguin ARGOS-linked satellite telemetry and time-depth recorders (TDRs). The combination of real-time surface current maps with adaptive in situ sampling introduces High Frequency Radar to the Antarctic in a way that allows us to rigorously and efficiently test the influence of local tidal processes on top predator foraging ecology.

  10. The importance of hot drought in providing more useful, and higher confidence, projections of future climatic, hydrologic, and ecosystem impacts. (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B. H.


    Often cited as a general guide to future climatic change, "the wet get wetter, and the dry get drier" is a misleading way to look towards the future for many regions of the globe, just as the simple use of multi-model ensemble projections of temperature and precipitation change averaged over many years can also be quite misleading for real-world planning and decision-making. Factors that support these assertions are multi-fold. First, we know with high confidence that warming will continue as long as greenhouse gas emissions continue. Second, continued warming will act to make droughts more frequent, longer and more severe in many regions. Even in the absence of precipitation declines, increases in evaporation and evapotranspiration, among other things, will drive regional drying. It is misleading to suggest to decision-makers that although the future may see an increase in drought risk, a projected increase in mean precipitation will counter-balance the increased drought risk. This counter-balancing will be absent during periods of precipitation-dominated drought. Moreover, projections of precipitation change are usually associated with much less confidence than projections of warming. For example, in places like the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande Rivers, or East Africa, many models suggest we should be seeing an increase in precipitation, when in fact we are only seeing significant warming. Moreover, paleoclimatic evidence suggests that state-of-the-art Earth System Models may underestimate the risk of future multi-decadal droughts, even though these droughts have occurred in many regions during the last 2000 years. This reality suggests that even in regions that do see modest increases in mean precipitation, there will likely be periods in the future characterized by decades of below 20th century mean precipitation coupled with unprecedented warmth. Hot drought may be a much more widespread and serious threat than widely recognized.

  11. Drought monitoring over the Horn of Africa using remotely sensed evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation parameters (United States)

    Timmermans, J.; Gokmen, M.; Eden, U.; Abou Ali, M.; Vekerdy, Z.; Su, Z.


    The need to good drought monitoring and management for the Horn of Africa has never been greater. This ongoing drought is the largest in the past sixty years and is effecting the life of around 10 million people, according to the United Nations. The impact of drought is most apparent in food security and health. In addition secondary problems arise related to the drought such as large migration; more than 15000 Somalia have fled to neighboring countries to escape the problems caused by the drought. These problems will only grow in the future to larger areas due to increase in extreme weather patterns due to global climate change. Monitoring drought impact and managing the drought effects are therefore of critical importance. The impact of a drought is hard to characterize as drought depends on several parameters, like precipitation, land use, irrigation. Consequently the effects of the drought vary spatially and range from short-term to long-term. For this reason a drought event can be characterized into four categories: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economical. In terms of food production the agricultural drought, or short term dryness near the surface layer, is most important. This drought is usually characterized by low soil moisture content in the root zone, decreased evapotranspiration, and changes in vegetation vigor. All of these parameters can be detected with good accuracy from space. The advantage of remote sensing in Drought monitoring is evident. Drought monitoring is usually performed using drought indices, like the Palmer Index (PDSI), Crop Moisture Index (CMI), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). With the introduction of remote sensing several indices of these have shown great potential for large scale application. These indices however all incorporate precipitation as the main surface parameter neglecting the response of the surface to the dryness. More recently two agricultural drought indices, the EvapoTranspiration Deficit

  12. Pluvials, Droughts, the Mongol Empire, and Modern Mongolia (United States)

    Hessl, A. E.; Pederson, N.; Baatarbileg, N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.


    Understanding the connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. Many studies link the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate conditions, but few have investigated the connection between climate, surplus energy, and the rise of empires. Inner Asia in the 13th century underwent a major political transformation requiring enormous energetic inputs that altered human history. The Mongol Empire, centered on the city of Karakorum, became the largest contiguous land empire in world history (Fig. 1 inset). Powered by domesticated grazing animals, the empire grew at the expense of sedentary agriculturalists across Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Although some scholars and conventional wisdom agree that dry conditions spurred the Mongol conquests, little paleoenvironmental data at annual resolution are available to evaluate the role of climate in the development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 2600 year tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), a measure of water balance, derived from 107 live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees growing on a Holocene lava flow in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the Khorgo lava flow today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are extremely water-stressed and their radial growth is well-correlated with both drought (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Our reconstruction, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-September scPDSI (1959-2009) accounts for 55.8% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when 73% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our scPDSI reconstruction places historic and modern social change in Mongolia in the context of the range of climatic variability during the Common Era. Our record

  13. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Shifley


    Full Text Available At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and basal area of standing dead oak trees, respectively. These values are three to five times higher than for white oak group and non-oak species. Oak decline and associated escalating mortality have occurred primarily in red oak species while the white oak group has maintained a relatively stable mortality rate that is comparable to non-oak species. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality in the red oak group was significantly correlated with the growing season Palmer drought severity index (PDSI and usually lagged two to three years following single drought events. Moreover, based on the past 17 years PDSI data, it appears that the cumulative impacts of drought may last up to 10 years. The Ozark Highlands experienced a severe drought extending from 1998 to 2000 and another milder drought from 2005 to 2006. These drought events triggered the escalation of mortality starting around year 2000. Spatially, high red oak mortality sites (hot spots with proportional basal area mortality > 0.12 initially occurred in the central Ozarks and spread gradually over most of the Ozark Highlands as regional droughts continued. In contrast, sites with elevated white oak and non-oak mortality occurred sporadically, mainly in the southern portion (Arkansas of the Ozark Highlands. During the most recent inventory period (2006–2010, over 60%, 7% and 5% of red oak, white oak and non-oak groups, respectively, had relative mortality rates of > 12%.

  14. Asteroid Lightcurve Analysis at CS3-Palmer Divide Station: 2017 October-December (United States)

    Warner, Brian D.


    Lightcurves for 18 main-belt asteroids were obtained at the Center for Solar System Studies-Palmer Divide Station (CS3-PDS) from 2017 October-December. All but one of the asteroids were targets of opportunity, i.e., in the field of planned targets, which demonstrates a good reason for data mining images.

  15. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong


    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  16. Benchmarking a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System for Agricultural Drought Monitoring (United States)

    Hun, Eunjin; Crow, Wade T.; Holmes, Thomas; Bolten, John


    Despite considerable interest in the application of land surface data assimilation systems (LDAS) for agricultural drought applications, relatively little is known about the large-scale performance of such systems and, thus, the optimal methodological approach for implementing them. To address this need, this paper evaluates an LDAS for agricultural drought monitoring by benchmarking individual components of the system (i.e., a satellite soil moisture retrieval algorithm, a soil water balance model and a sequential data assimilation filter) against a series of linear models which perform the same function (i.e., have the same basic inputoutput structure) as the full system component. Benchmarking is based on the calculation of the lagged rank cross-correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture estimates acquired for various components of the system. Lagged soil moistureNDVI correlations obtained using individual LDAS components versus their linear analogs reveal the degree to which non-linearities andor complexities contained within each component actually contribute to the performance of the LDAS system as a whole. Here, a particular system based on surface soil moisture retrievals from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), a two-layer Palmer soil water balance model and an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is benchmarked. Results suggest significant room for improvement in each component of the system.

  17. Paleoclimatic variations in Maknassy Basin (central Tunisia) during the Holocene period using multidisciplinary approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zouari, K.; Chkir, N.; Ouda, B.


    The signature of humid climatic episodes in the Holocene paleoclimatic history of Tunisia are evident in outcroppings along riverbanks almost all over the Tunisian drainage network. Previous multidisciplinary studies have already identified some sites where these remnants can contribute valuable information for reconstruction of paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic variations in the presently hyper-arid zone of the Northern Sahara. Sedimentary deposits outcropping on Wadi Leben and Wadi Ben Sellam banks, in the Maknassy Basin (Central Tunisia), have been sampled. Multidisciplinary studies, including prehistory, sedimentology, mineralogy, ecology and radiochronology have been conducted to improve palaeoenvironmental interpretations and to determine a precise chronological history of humid episodes during the Holocene in Tunisia. This paper deals with the interpretation of results obtained from the Maknassy Basin in comparison with some other Tunisian sites in order to highlight Holocene humid episodes. Establishment of a precise chronological framework is prerequisite to exploring potential relationships between the occurrence of humid phases and recharge of aquifers located in this area. (author)

  18. Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic investigations on Isla de los Estados, Argentina (United States)

    Björck, S.; Fernandez, M.; Hjort, C.; Ljung, K.; Martinez, O.; Möller, P.; Ponce, F.; Rabassa, J.; Roig, F.; Unkel, I.; Wohlfarth, B.


    The expedition in November-December 2005 to Isla de los Estados (Staten Island) off the southeastern tip of South America was a cooperative venture between Lund University (LU) and Stockholm University (SU) in Sweden and the CADIC-CONICET Institute in Ushuaia, Argentina. The aim of the expedition was threefold: (1) to extend the Swedish paleoclimatic "ATLANTIS"-project (Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Azores, Grenada, Tristan da Cunha; PI S Björck) to the southern part of the South American continent, (2) to connect earlier glacial and climate history reconstructions from the Antarctic Peninsula to equivalents north of the Drake Passage in southernmost South America, and (3) to complement paleo-information available from the Tierra del Fuego mainland with information from Isla de los Estados. Focus was on two areas in the northern and north-western part of the island, Bahía Colnett and Bahia Crossley. Detailed geomorphologic and stratigraphic mapping of glacial deposits were combined with sampling sediments for OSL dating. To reconstruct the paleoclimatic development of Isla de los Estados since the last ice retreat, four main peat bog/lake sites were cored and sampled. In addition, living trees of Nothofagus and old logs preserved in the peat were sampled for dendrochronological and dendroclimatological studies. Preliminary results show that the deglaciation of the study area occurred before 16500 cal yr BP. Detailed multi- proxy analyses of the four sequences are under way and first results will be presented.

  19. Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions (United States)

    Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.


    Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

  20. Widespread extreme drought events in Iberia and their relationship with North Atlantic moisture flux deficit (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Montero, Irene; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.


    drought's magnitude, which is obtained after considering the area affected - defined by SPEI values over a certain threshold (in this case SPEI Journal of Climate, 23, 1696-1718. Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I., Angulo, M., and El Kenawy, A. (2010b). A new global 0.5° gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11, 1033-1043 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

  1. Differentiability of Palmer's linearization Theorem and converse result for density functions


    Castañeda, Alvaro; Robledo, Gonzalo


    We study differentiability properties in a particular case of the Palmer's linearization Theorem, which states the existence of an homeomorphism $H$ between the solutions of a linear ODE system having exponential dichotomy and a quasilinear system. Indeed, if the linear system is uniformly asymptotically stable, sufficient conditions ensuring that $H$ is a $C^{2}$ preserving orientation diffeomorphism are given. As an application, we generalize a converse result of density functions for a non...

  2. Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Keyan [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental Systems (MOE), Lanzhou (China); Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Tree-Ring Laboratory, New York, NY (United States); Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Yang, Tao [Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Western China' s Environmental Systems (MOE), Lanzhou (China); Li, Jinbao; D' Arrigo, Rosanne; Cook, Edward; Davi, Nicole [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Tree-Ring Laboratory, New York, NY (United States)


    We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction (r=0.61, P<0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir (Abies forrestii). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s-1460s, 1560s-1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s-1490s, 1510s-1520s, 1590s, 1610s-1630s, 1720s-1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3-5.5 years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral peaks of 29.2-40.9 and 56.8-60.2 years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. (orig.)

  3. PRESSURE - WATER and Other Data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER from 19940210 to 19940405 (NODC Accession 9800001) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature, salinity, and other data were collected in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Seas from the Nathaniel B. Palmer from 10 February 1994 to 05 April 1994. Data...

  4. Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstruction for middle and late holocene in Uruguay southeastern New contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Del Puerto, L.; Bracco, R.; Inda, H.; Garcia, F.; Panario, D.; Castineira, C.; Capdepont, I.


    This work is about the study carried out within the framework of the environmental evolution and the prehistoric human occupation on coastal lagoons in the east of Uruguay. The analysis of the sediments in the zone enable the reconstruction of the Holocene climate history as well as the construction of the Paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental model belong to the middle and late Holocene

  5. WATER TEMPERATURE and Other Data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER from 19961018 to 19970430 (NODC Accession 9900168) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Nutrients and other data were collected from CTD and bottle casts in the Antarctic Ocean from the Nathaniel B. Palmer from 18 October 1996 to 30 April 1997. Data...

  6. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen


    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  7. Assessing the effect of drought severity on height-for-age z-score in Kenyan children: a secondary analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Lillepold, BScH


    Full Text Available Background: Globally, droughts are occurring more regularly and are having negative effects on population health, particularly in countries such as Kenya, where agriculture is a primary driver of the economy and a source of subsistence for many communities. Children are particularly susceptible to weather-related shocks. Previous research has shown an association between drought and cross-sectional indicators of malnutrition, such as stunting. In this study, we explored various longitudinal and spatial analysis approaches to evaluating the effect of drought on height-for-age z-scores (HAZ over time and space among young children in Kenya. Methods: Using anthropometric data from three georeferenced Kenyan Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, we developed multivariate linear regression and spatial lag and error models (with Moran's I calculations to investigate the association between drought severity and HAZ in children aged 0–5 years. Initial covariates included age of the child, sex, maternal age, height and education, wealth index, urban or rural location, and size at birth. We then did multilevel and geographically weighted regression modelling using frequentist or Bayesian methods and with inclusion of household-level covariates, such as livelihood zones. To assess the effect of changes in drought severity on child HAZ over time, KDHS data from 2003, 2008–09, and 2014 were analysed with spatiotemporal modelling. Findings: Preliminary results from the multivariate linear model showed a negative, non-significant association between drought severity and HAZ among Kenyan children in 2014 (β=0·033, p=0·101; however, there was a significant interaction between drought severity and age (β=–0·002, p<0·0007. The spatial lag model gave similar results. Other variables associated with HAZ included wealth index, age, sex, maternal education, and maternal height. Global Moran's I

  8. Increasing Megadrought Risk at the Intersection of Decadal to Centennial Variability and Climate Change (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Buckle, N.; Stevenson, S.; Fasullo, J.


    Even more than the 1930's U.S. Dust Bowl Drought, the 20th century Sahel drought stands out as the most unprecedented drought of the instrumental era, in part because it extended over multiple decades. Paleoclimatic evidence makes it clear that this Sahel drought was nonetheless not really unprecedented - droughts many decades long have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa regularly over the last several thousand years, and these constitute what is now increasingly referred to as "megadrought." Paleoclimatic evidence also makes it clear that all drought-prone semi-arid and arid regions of the globe, including southwestern North America, southeastern Australia, and the Mediterranean/Middle Eastern region likely experienced multiple such multidecadal megadroughts in recent pre-Anthropocene Earth history. In other regions of the globe, including parts of South Asia and Amazonia, short but devastating droughts of the last 50-150 years, were also eclipsed in recent Earth history by much more serious megadrought, although these megadroughts were shorter than the multidecadal droughts of Africa or SW North America. In the past, megadroughts have occurred for reasons that are increasingly well understood in terms of ocean-atmosphere dynamics that led to unusually persistent precipitation deficits. Many of these same dynamics are well simulated in state-of-the-art Earth System Models, and yet comparisons between simulated and observed paleohydroclimatic variability suggests the models generally underestimate the risk of megadrought. Paleohydroclimatic records in some cases overestimate drought persistence, but there appear to be other issues at play that need to be better understood and simulated: positive land-atmosphere feedbacks, overly energetic interannual (i.e., ENSO) modes of variability, and insufficient internal multidecadal to centennial coupled climate system variability. Taking these issues and the impact of anthropogenic climate change into account means that the

  9. Caroline B. Palmer: Pioneer Physician Anesthetist and First Chair of Anesthesia at Stanford. (United States)

    Brodsky, Jay B; Saidman, Lawrence J


    Caroline B. Palmer was appointed as Chief of Anesthesia at Cooper Medical College (soon renamed as Stanford Medical School) in 1909. For the next 28 years, she was an innovative leader, a clinical researcher, and a strong advocate for recognition of anesthesiology as a medical specialty. To honor her accomplishments, the operating room suite in the new Stanford Hospital will be named after this pioneering woman anesthesiologist.

  10. Overlapping Residual Herbicides for Control of Photosystem (PS) II- and 4-Hydroxyphenylpyruvate Dioxygenase (HPPD)-Inhibitor-Resistant Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson) in Glyphosate-Resistant Maize (United States)

    Chahal, Parminder S.; Ganie, Zahoor A.; Jhala, Amit J.


    A Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson) biotype has evolved resistance to photosystem (PS) II- (atrazine) and 4-hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD)-inhibiting herbicides (mesotrione, tembotrione, and topramezone) in maize seed production field in Nebraska, USA. The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of soil residual pre-emergence (PRE) herbicides followed by (fb) tank-mixture of residual and foliar active post-emergence (POST) herbicides on PS-II- and HPPD-inhibitor-resistant Palmer amaranth control, maize yield, and net economic returns. Field experiments were conducted in a grower's field infested with PS II- and HPPD-inhibitor-resistant Palmer amaranth near Shickley in Fillmore County, Nebraska, USA in 2015 and 2016. The contrast analysis suggested that saflufenacil plus dimethenamid-P or pyroxasulfone plus saflufenacil applied PRE provided 80–82% Palmer amaranth control compared to 65 and 39% control with saflufenacil and pyroxasulfone applied alone at 3 weeks after PRE (WAPRE), respectively. Among the PRE fb POST herbicide programs, 95–98% Palmer amaranth control was achieved with pyroxasulfone plus safluefenacil, or saflufenacil plus dimethenamid-P applied PRE, fb glyphosate plus topramezone plus dimethenamid-P plus atrazine, glyphosate plus diflufenzopyr plus dicamba plus pyroxasulfone, glyphosate plus diflufenzopyr plus pendimethalin, or glyphosate plus diflufenzopyr plus dicamba plus atrazine applied POST at 3 weeks after POST (WAPOST) through maize harvest. Based on contrast analysis, PRE fb POST programs provided 77–83% Palmer amaranth control at 3 WAPOST through maize harvest compared to 12–15% control with PRE-only and 66–84% control with POST-only programs. Similarly, PRE fb POST programs provided 99% biomass reduction at 6 WAPOST compared to PRE-only (28%) and POST-only (87%) programs. PRE fb POST programs provided higher maize yield (13,617 kg ha−1) and net return (US $1,724 ha−1) compared to the PRE

  11. Pollen-based paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic change at Lake Ohrid (south-eastern Europe) during the past 500 ka

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sadori, Laura; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Panagiotopoulos, Konstantinos; Masi, Alessia; Bertini, Adele; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Francke, Alexander; Kouli, Katerina; Joannin, Sébastien; Mercuri, Anna Maria; Peyron, Odile; Torri, Paola; Wagner, Bernd; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Sinopoli, Gaia; Donders, Timme H.


    Lake Ohrid is located at the border between FYROM (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) and Albania and formed during the latest phases of Alpine orogenesis. It is the deepest, the largest and the oldest tectonic lake in Europe. To better understand the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental

  12. Nitrogen isotopes from terrestrial organic matter as a new paleoclimatic proxy for pre-quaternary time (United States)

    Tramoy, romain; Schnyder, johann; thuy Nguyen Tu, thanh; Yans, johan; Storme, jean yves; Sebilo, mathieu; Derenne, sylvie; Jacob, jérémy; Baudin, françois


    Marine and lacustrine sedimentary organic matter is often dominated by algal-bacterial production. Its nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15Norg) is frequently used to reconstruct biogeochemical processes involved in the nitrogen cycle, such as N utilization by organisms (e.g. Altabet et al., 1995), denitrification and diagenesis processes (e.g. Altabet et al., 1995; Sebilo et al., 2003; Gälman et al., 2009) or to evidence N sources variability (e.g. Hodell and Schelske, 1998; Vreca and Muri, 2006) . However, all these parameters and processes make N isotopic signals in marine and lacustrine environments often very complex to interpret. After pioneer studies, Mariotti et al. (1981), Austin and Vitousek (1998), Amundson et al. (2003), Swap et al. (2004), and Liu and Wang (2008) have shown that the δ15Norg of modern or quaternary terrestrial plants seem to be positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with precipitations. Therefore, δ15Norg of terrestrial OM might be a better record for paleoclimatic studies than δ15Norg of sedimentary OM dominated by algal-bacterial production. Recently, promising organic nitrogen isotopic data (δ15Norg) have been published on lignites from the Dieppe-Hampshire Basin (Paleocene-Eocene transition, Normandy (Storme et al., 2012). Authors suggest that the δ15Norg recorded local paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Following these results, the aim of this work is to test the use of stable nitrogen isotopes in terrestrial OM as a new paleoclimatic marker for pre-quaternary geological series. Does δ15Norg constitute a valuable tool to reconstruct past climates? What are the limits in the use of this proxy and possible methodological bias related to organic sources or diagenetic processes? To address these questions, δ15Norg must be measured in samples from periods associated with large and well documented climate change. We therefore selected a Liassic continental sedimentary succession from

  13. Asian droughts in the last millennium: a search for robust impacts of Pacific Ocean surface temperature variabilities (United States)

    Yu, Entao; King, Martin P.; Sobolowski, Stefan; Otterå, Odd Helge; Gao, Yongqi


    This study investigates the robustness of hydroclimate impacts in Asia due to major drivers of climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Composite analyses are carried out on a tree ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index as well as on a long coupled global climate model control experiment. El Niño (La Niña) has a robust impact on wet (dry) conditions in West Asia and dry (wet) conditions in South Asia. For the PDO, impacts are found throughout the Asia domain. However, identifying the robust signals due to PDO from these analyses is more challenging due to the limited lengths of the data. Results indicate that West Asia (South and Southeast Asia) experiences wet (dry) conditions during periods of positive PDO. For East Asia, there is indication that positive (negative) PDO is associated with wet (dry) conditions around and southward of 30°N and dry (wet) conditions north of this latitude. This result is consistent with the current understanding of the role of PDO in the "southern-flood northern-drought" phenomenon in China. We suggest that specific extreme events or periods have regional impacts with strong intensities that cannot be fully explained through the composite analysis of ENSO, PDO, or any combination thereof. Two such examples are shown to illustrate this: the Strange Parallel Drought (1756-1768 CE) and the Great Drought (1876-1878 CE). Additionally, during these climate events, ENSO and PDO can be in phases which are not consistent with the required phases of these drivers that explain the concurrent drought and pluvial conditions in Asia. Therefore, not all historical drought and pluvial events in Northeast Asia and northern China can be related back to ENSO or PDO. Finally, we also examine the dynamical characteristics of the reported hydroclimatic impacts in the global climate model experiment. There is moisture transport into (out of) regions that exhibit

  14. Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant and susceptible cultivars of rice ( Oryza sativa L.) ... and IR-64 (drought sensitive) cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under different level of drought stress. ... from 32 Countries:.

  15. Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Bachmair


    Full Text Available Drought management frameworks are dependent on methods for monitoring and prediction, but quantifying the hazard alone is arguably not sufficient; the negative consequences that may arise from a lack of precipitation must also be predicted if droughts are to be better managed. However, the link between drought intensity, expressed by some hydrometeorological indicator, and the occurrence of drought impacts has only recently begun to be addressed. One challenge is the paucity of information on ecological and socioeconomic consequences of drought. This study tests the potential for developing empirical drought impact functions based on drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index as predictors and text-based reports on drought impacts as a surrogate variable for drought damage. While there have been studies exploiting textual evidence of drought impacts, a systematic assessment of the effect of impact quantification method and different functional relationships for modeling drought impacts is missing. Using Southeast England as a case study we tested the potential of three different data-driven models for predicting drought impacts quantified from text-based reports: logistic regression, zero-altered negative binomial regression (hurdle model, and an ensemble regression tree approach (random forest. The logistic regression model can only be applied to a binary impact/no impact time series, whereas the other two models can additionally predict the full counts of impact occurrence at each time point. While modeling binary data results in the lowest prediction uncertainty, modeling the full counts has the advantage of also providing a measure of impact severity, and the counts were found to be reasonably predictable. However, there were noticeable differences in skill between modeling methodologies. For binary data the logistic regression and the random forest model performed similarly well based on

  16. Straight talk with... Carolyn Bertozzi. Interview by Roxanne Palmer. (United States)

    Bertozzi, Carolyn


    Last month, Carolyn Bertozzi became the first woman to win the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-Lemelson Prize, a $500,000 award that honors midcareer inventors. Bertozzi, a chemical biologist, works to understand how sugars mediate cell-to-cell communication. But she isn't content with just observing the process; her lab at the University of California-Berkeley has pioneered tools for labeling molecules inside living cells. Her biomedical inventions have contributed to the development of noninvasive methods for identifying disease tissue within the body-advances that could revolutionize both the diagnosis and the treatment of a host of diseases ranging from arthritis to cancer. Roxanne Palmer recently caught up with her by phone to discuss Bertozzi's sweet success with cell surface sugars.

  17. Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California (United States)

    Greene, C.


    Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

  18. Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India (United States)

    Janardhanan, A.


    Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

  19. Drought occurence (United States)

    John W. Coulston


    Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

  20. Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun


    It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

  1. Proteomic responses of drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive cotton varieties to drought stress. (United States)

    Zhang, Haiyan; Ni, Zhiyong; Chen, Quanjia; Guo, Zhongjun; Gao, Wenwei; Su, Xiujuan; Qu, Yanying


    Drought, one of the most widespread factors reducing agricultural crop productivity, affects biological processes such as development, architecture, flowering and senescence. Although protein analysis techniques and genome sequencing have made facilitated the proteomic study of cotton, information on genetic differences associated with proteomic changes in response to drought between different cotton genotypes is lacking. To determine the effects of drought stress on cotton seedlings, we used two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2-DE) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry to comparatively analyze proteome of drought-responsive proteins during the seedling stage in two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) cultivars, drought-tolerant KK1543 and drought-sensitive Xinluzao26. A total of 110 protein spots were detected on 2-DE maps, of which 56 were identified by MALDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF/TOF mass spectrometry. The identified proteins were mainly associated with metabolism (46.4 %), antioxidants (14.2 %), and transport and cellular structure (23.2 %). Some key proteins had significantly different expression patterns between the two genotypes. In particular, 5-methyltetrahydropteroyltriglutamate-homocysteine methyltransferase, UDP-D-glucose pyrophosphorylase and ascorbate peroxidase were up-regulated in KK1543 compared with Xinluzao26. Under drought stress conditions, the vacuolar H(+)-ATPase catalytic subunit, a 14-3-3g protein, translation initiation factor 5A and pathogenesis-related protein 10 were up-regulated in KK1543, whereas ribosomal protein S12, actin, cytosolic copper/zinc superoxide dismutase, protein disulfide isomerase, S-adenosylmethionine synthase and cysteine synthase were down-regulated in Xinluzao26. This work represents the first characterization of proteomic changes that occur in response to drought in roots of cotton plants. These differentially expressed proteins may be related to

  2. Inversion tillage, high residue covers, and different herbicide regimes for palmer amaranth control in liberty link systems (United States)

    Glyphosate-resistant Palmer amaranth is adversely affecting cotton production in the Southeast US. A field experiment was established in fall 2008 at the E.V. Smith Research Center, Field Crops Unit near Shorter, AL, to investigate the role of inversion tillage, high residue cover crops, and differ...

  3. Regional relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area in the interior West, USA (United States)

    Brandon M. Collins; Philip N. Omi; Phillip L. Chapman


    Recent studies have linked the Atlantic Multtidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with drought occurrence in the interior United States. This study evaluates the influence of AM0 and PDO phases on interannual relationships between climate and wildfire-burned area during the 20th century. Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is...

  4. A Revised Set of Dendroclimatic Reconstructions of Summer Drought over the Conterminous U.S. (United States)

    Zhang, Z.; Mann, M. E.; Cook, E. R.


    We describe a revised set of dendroclimatic reconstructions of drought patterns over the conterminous U.S back to 1700. These reconstructions are based on a set of 483 drought-sensitive tree ring chronologies available across the continental U.S. used previously by Cook et al [Cook, E.R., D.M. Meko, D.W. Stahle, and M.K. Cleaveland, Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States, Journal of Climate, 12, 1145-1162, 1999]. In contrast with the "Point by Point" (PPR) local regression technique used by Cook et al (1999), the tree ring data were calibrated against the instrumental record of summer drought[June-August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)] based on application of the "Regularized Expectation Maximization" (RegEM) algorithm to relate proxy and instrumental data over a common (20th century) interval. This approach calibrates the proxy data set against the instrumental record by treating the reconstruction as initially missing data in the combined proxy/instrumental data matrix, and optimally estimating the mean and covariances of the combined data matrix through an iterative procedure which yields a reconstruction of the PDSI field with minimal error variance [Schneider, T., Analysis of Incomplete Climate Data: Estimation of Mean Values and Covariance Matrices and Imputation of Missing Values, Journal of Climate, 14, 853-871, 2001; Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Climate Reconstruction Using 'Pseudoproxies', Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 139-1-139-4, 2002; Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Delworth, T.L., Stouffer, R., The Performance of Covariance-Based Methods of Climate Field Reconstruction Under Stationary and Nonstationary Forcing, J. Climate, accepted, 2002]. As in Cook et al (1999), a screening procedure was first used to select an optimal subset of candidate tree-ring drought predictors, and the predictors (tree ring data) and predictand (instrumental PDSI) were pre-whitened prior to calibration (with serial correlation added back into the

  5. Breathing Silence. An interview with John Palmer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Scuderi


    Full Text Available The interview focuses on some aspects of the composer’s work with electronics. Palmer, described by the critics as «undoubtedly the most visionary composer of his generation» speaks about the composers and musical works that have had a major impact on him. He also mentions the friendship with John Cage, his numerous travels – with particular emphasis on Japan – and the influence of Eastern culture on his musical mind. The composer discusses the notion of causality explored in Renge-Kyo, the meditative nature of Transient and Inwards, and spirituality as the central theme of both acousmatic works In the Temple and I Am. The electronic medium is also por- trayed as a mirror of an intense and vivid preoccupation for intimacy and perpetual search for timbral qualities that by now characterize most of his music. Another important aspect of Palmer’s work mentioned in the interview is the collaboration with some established performers and its importance for the realization of a musical work.

  6. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.


    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  7. Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene. (United States)

    deMenocal, P B


    Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.

  8. Fire suppression has led to greater drought-sensitivity in dry conifer forests: tree-ring carbon isotope evidence from Central Oregon (United States)

    Voelker, S.; Merschel, A. G.; Meinzer, F. C.; Spies, T. A.; Still, C. J.


    Mortality events of economically and ecologically important conifers have been widespread across Western North America over recent decades. Many of these events have been linked to "global change-type droughts" characterized by greater temperatures and evaporative demand. In parallel, since the early to mid- 20th century, increasing atmospheric [CO2] has been shown to increase the water use efficiency (WUE) of trees worldwide while conifer forests in western North America have become denser after the advent of modern fire suppression efforts. Therefore, competing hypotheses include that conifer forests have experienced 1) less drought stress due to water savings from increased WUE, 2) more drought stress due to increased demand for water in dense forests with greater leaf area index, or 3) unchanging stress because these two factors have cancelled each other out. To provide a test of these hypotheses we used inter-annual latewood carbon isotope discrimination, Δ13C, across a dry mixed-conifer forest landscape of central Oregon in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. The forests are dominated by old-growth ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa) and younger and fire-intolerant grand firs (Abies grandis). Dendrochronological dating of tree establishment and fires scars established sharp declines in fire frequency and associated increases in the densities of grand fir since the early 1900s. Δ13C data for ponderosa pine and grand fir spanned 1830-2013 and 1900-2013, respectively. For our analyses these years were split into periods of high fire frequency (1830-1900), moderate fire frequency (1901-1956) and fire-exclusion (1957-2013). Comparisons of Δ13C to reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index values for the same years revealed that leaf gas exchange of both species has been more sensitive to drought during the recent fire-exclusion period compared to previous periods when surface fires kept tree densities much lower. Similar research is needed elsewhere to

  9. Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Clark, Julian; Rangecroft, Sally; Wanders, Niko; Gleeson, Tom; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Hannaford, Jamie; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Hannah, David M.; Sheffield, Justin; Svoboda, Mark; Verbeiren, Boud; Wagener, Thorsten; Van Lanen, Henny A. J.


    In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what

  10. Near-Earth Asteroid Lightcurve Analysis at CS3-Palmer Divide Station: 2017 October-December (United States)

    Warner, Brian D.


    Lightcurves for 20 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) obtained at the Center for Solar System Studies-Palmer Divide Station (CS3-PDS) from 2017 October-December were analyzed for rotation period and signs of satellites or tumbling. The results for 7336 Saunders are based on data obtained in 2017 August and revise the original period of 3.36 h to 4.311 h. Preliminary shape and spin axis models are given for 1864 Daedalus and (17511) 1992 QN.

  11. Blended Drought Index: Integrated Drought Hazard Assessment in the Cuvelai-Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Luetkemeier


    Full Text Available Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and adapt a growing population to a changing environment. This paper presents the Blended Drought Index (BDI, an integrated tool for estimating the impact of drought as a climate-induced hazard in the semi-arid Cuvelai-Basin of Angola and Namibia. It incorporates meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics that impair the population’s ability to ensure food and water security. The BDI uses a copula function to combine common standardized drought indicators that describe precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Satellite remote sensing products were processed to analyze drought frequency, severity and duration. As the primary result, an integrated drought hazard map was built to spatially depict drought hot-spots. Temporally, the BDI correlates well with millet/sorghum yield (r = 0.51 and local water consumption (r = −0.45 and outperforms conventional indicators. In the light of a drought’s multifaceted impact on society, the BDI is a simple and transferable tool to identify areas highly threatened by drought in an integrated manner.

  12. Activation of a small ephemeral lake in southern Jordan during the last full glacial period and its paleoclimatic implications (United States)

    Catlett, Gentry A.; Rech, Jason A.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.; Al Kuisi, Mustafa; Li, Shanying; Honke, Jeffrey S.


    Playas, or ephemeral lakes, are one of the most common depositional environments in arid and semiarid lands worldwide. Playa deposits, however, have mostly been avoided as paleoclimatic archives because they typically contain exceptionally low concentrations of organic material, making 14C dating difficult. Here, we describe a technique for concentrating

  13. The effect of severe drought and management after drought on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The False Thornveld of the Eastern Cape experienced a particularly intense drought during the 1982/1983 growing season. Extensive grass mortality took place during the drought. After the drought, recovery was particularly sensitive to the post-drought management treatment applied. Veld that was grazed immediately ...

  14. Tractable approximations for probabilistic models: The adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer mean field approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opper, Manfred; Winther, Ole


    We develop an advanced mean held method for approximating averages in probabilistic data models that is based on the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) approach of disorder physics. In contrast to conventional TAP. where the knowledge of the distribution of couplings between the random variables...... is required. our method adapts to the concrete couplings. We demonstrate the validity of our approach, which is so far restricted to models with nonglassy behavior? by replica calculations for a wide class of models as well as by simulations for a real data set....

  15. Paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic studies of estuarine and marine sediments using strontium isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingram, B.L.


    Strontium isotopic ratio ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) measurements in fossil carbonates and phosphates are used to evaluate paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic environments in Quaternary, Pliocene-Pleistocene, and mid-Cretaceous estuarine and marine sediments. The use of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr measurements as an estuarine paleosalinity and paleoclimatic indicator is developed and applied to San Francisco Bay. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr measurements of foraminifer and molluscan fossils contained in estuarine sediments of late Pleistocene (ca 115 to 125 ka) and late Holocene (4.5 ka) age show cyclic variations indicating that salinity fluctuated with periods of several hundred years, probably reflecting wet-dry cycles associated with fluctuations in solar irradiance caused by sunspot cycles. The average salinity in San Pablo and Richardson bays was significantly lower (by 6 to 8%) over much of the past 4.5 ka than at present, reflecting a combination of decreased freshwater inflow at present associated with water diversion and wetter climatic conditions prior to 2000 years ago. Salinity data are converted to river discharge using salinity-delta flow relations derived from historical records for San Francisco Bay. The data indicate that annual freshwater inflow was at least twice the modern pre-diversion average between 2.5 and 3.0 Ka; this time period is also identified as one of wetter climatic conditions by lake level and treeline records from the Sierra Nevada. Strontium isotopic measurements of marine carbonate and fish teeth to middle Cretaceous age are used to increase the resolution of the existing seawater Sr isotope versus time curve and to assess models for global oceanic anoxic events. The new data using fish teeth show less scatter and variability than previous data. Negative excursions in the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratio of 7-14 parts in 10 -5 during Aptian anoxic events suggest a link between increased submarine volcanism and oceanic anoxia

  16. Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress. (United States)

    Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko


    Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

  17. Asteroid Lightcurve Analysis at the Palmer Divide Observatory: 2008 December - 2009 March (United States)

    Warner, Brian D.


    Lightcurves for 34 asteroids were obtained at the Palmer Divide Observatory from 2008 December through 2009 March: 91 Aegina, 261 Prymno, 359 Georgia, 402 Chloe, 497 Iva, 506 Marion, 660 Crescentia, 691 Lehigh, 731 Sorga, 779 Nina, 802 Epyaxa, 908 Buda, 1015 Christa, 1518 Rovaniemi, 1600 Vyssotsky, 1656 Suomi, 2000 Herschel, 2735 Ellen, 3169 Ostro, 3854 George, 3940 Larion, (5558) 1989 WL2, (5747) 1991 CO3, 6517 Buzzi, (11304) 1993 DJ, (22195) 3509 P-L, (26383) 1999 MA2, (29780) 1999 CJ50, (45878) 2000 WX29, (45898) 2000 XQ49, (76800) 2000 OQ35, (76929) 2001 AX34, (87343) 2000 QH25, and (207398) 2006 AS2.

  18. Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China (United States)

    Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.


    As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

  19. GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor (United States)

    Rui, Hualan; Vollmer, Bruce; Teng, Bill; Loeser, Carlee; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Rodell, Matt


    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

  20. Pollen-based evidence of extreme drought during the last Glacial (32.6-9.0 ka) in coastal southern California (United States)

    Heusser, Linda E.; Kirby, Matthew E.; Nichols, Jonathan E.


    High resolution pollen analyses of sediment core LEDC10-1 from Lake Elsinore yield the first well-dated, terrestrial record of sub-centennial-scale ecologic change in coastal southern California between ˜32 and 9 ka. In the Lake Elsinore watershed, the initial, mesic montane conifer forests dominated by Pinus, and Cupressaceae with trace amounts of Abies and Picea were replaced by a sequence of multiple, extended severe mega-droughts between ˜27.5 and ˜25.5 ka, in which halophytic and xerophytic herbs and shrubs occupied an ephemeral lake. This prolonged and extended dry interval, which corresponds with warm waters offshore, imply strengthening of the North Pacific High and persistent below-average winter precipitation. The subsequent, contrasting monotonic occurrence of montane conifers reflects little variation in cold, mesic climate until ˜15 ka. Postglacial development of Quercus woodland and chaparral mark the return to more xeric, warmer conditions at this time. A brief reversal at ˜13.1-˜12.1 ka, as reflected by an expansion of Pinus, is correlative with the Younger Dryas and interrupts development of warm, postglacial climate. Subsequent gradual expansion of xeric vegetation post - Younger Dryas denotes the establishment of a winter hydroclimate regime in coastal southern California that is more similar to modern conditions. Pollen-based reconstructions of temperature and precipitation at Lake Elsinore are generally correlative with pollen-based paleoclimatic reconstructions and foraminifera-based sea surface temperatures from Santa Barbara Basin in marine core ODP 893. The conspicuous absence of the ˜27.5-˜25.5 ka glacial "mega-drought" in the Santa Barbara Basin pollen record highlights the sensitivity of Lake Elsinore to hydroclimate change, and thus, the importance of this new record that indicates that mega-drought can occur during the full glacial when climatic boundary conditions and forcings differed substantially from the present.

  1. Mediterranean drought fluctuation during the last 500 years based on tree-ring data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicault, A. [CEREGE, UMR 6635 CNRS/Universite Paul Cezanne, Aix-en-Provence (France); I.N.R.S., Centre ETE, Quebec, QC (Canada); Alleaume, S. [Cemagref, Aix en Provence (Germany); Brewer, S.; Guiot, J. [CEREGE, UMR 6635 CNRS/Universite Paul Cezanne, Aix-en-Provence (France); Carrer, M. [Universita degli Studi di Padova, Dipt. TeSAF - Treeline Ecology Research Unit - Agripolis, Legnaro (Italy); Nola, P. [Universita degli Studi di Pavia, Dipt. Ecologia del Territorio, Pavia (Italy)


    A 2.5 x 2.5 gridded summer (April-September) drought reconstruction over the larger Mediterranean land area (32.5 /47.5 N, 10 W/50 E; 152 grid points) is described, based on a network of 165 tree-ring series. The drought index used is the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, and the period considered is 1500-2000. The reconstruction technique combines an analogue technique for the estimation of missing tree-ring data with an artificial neural network for optimal non-linear calibration, including a bootstrap error assessment. Tests were carried out on the various sources of error in the reconstructions. Errors related to the temporal variations of the number of proxies were tested by comparing four reconstructions calibrated with four different sized regressor datasets, representing the decrease in the number of available proxies over time. Errors related to the heterogeneous spatial density of predictors were tested using pseudo-proxies, provided by the global climate model ECHO-G. Finally the errors related to the imperfect climate signal recorded by tree-ring series were tested by adding white noise to the pseudo-proxies. Reconstructions pass standard cross-validation tests. Nevertheless tests using pseudo-proxies show that the reconstructions are less good in areas where proxies are rare, but that the average reconstruction curve is robust. Finally, the noise added to proxies, which is by definition a high frequency component, has a major effect on the low frequency signal, but not on the medium frequencies. The comparison of the low frequency trends of our mean reconstruction and the GCM simulation indicates that the detrending method used is able to preserve the long-term variations of reconstructed PDSI. The results also highlight similar multi-decadal PDSI variations in the central and western parts of the Mediterranean basin and less clear low frequency changes in the east. The sixteenth and the first part of the seventeenth centuries are

  2. Improved tolerance to post-anthesis drought stress by pre-drought priming at vegetative stages in drought-tolerant and -sensitive wheat cultivars. (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Tian, Zhongwei; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Liu, Yang; Cui, Yakun; Zahoor, Rizwan; Jiang, Dong; Dai, Tingbo


    Wheat crop endures a considerable penalty of yield reduction to escape the drought events during post-anthesis period. Drought priming under a pre-drought stress can enhance the crop potential to tolerate the subsequent drought stress by triggering a faster and stronger defense mechanism. Towards these understandings, a set of controlled moderate drought stress at 55-60% field capacity (FC) was developed to prime the plants of two wheat cultivars namely Luhan-7 (drought tolerant) and Yangmai-16 (drought sensitive) during tillering (Feekes 2 stage) and jointing (Feekes 6 stage), respectively. The comparative response of primed and non-primed plants, cultivars and priming stages was evaluated by applying a subsequent severe drought stress at 7 days after anthesis. The results showed that primed plants of both cultivars showed higher potential to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress through improved leaf water potential, more chlorophyll, and ribulose-1, 5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase contents, enhanced photosynthesis, better photoprotection and efficient enzymatic antioxidant system leading to less yield reductions. The primed plants of Luhan-7 showed higher capability to adapt the drought stress events than Yangmai-16. The positive effects of drought priming to sustain higher grain yield were pronounced in plants primed at tillering than those primed at jointing. In consequence, upregulated functioning of photosynthetic apparatus and efficient enzymatic antioxidant activities in primed plants indicated their superior potential to alleviate a subsequently occurring drought stress, which contributed to lower yield reductions than non-primed plants. However, genotypic and priming stages differences in response to drought stress also contributed to affect the capability of primed plants to tolerate the post-anthesis drought stress conditions in wheat. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  3. CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought (United States)

    Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine


    Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa

  4. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on climatological drought indices for four European countries (United States)

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin


    The relationship between atmospheric conditions and the likelihood of a significant drought impact has, in the past, been difficult to quantify, particularly in Europe where political boundaries and language have made acquiring comprehensive drought impact information difficult. As such, the majority of studies linking meteorological drought with the occurrence or severity of drought impacts have previously focused on specific regions, very detailed impact types, or both. This study describes a new methodology to link the likelihood of drought impact occurrence with climatological drought indices across different European climatic regions and impact sectors using the newly developed European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII), a collaborative database of drought impact information ( The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are used as predictor variables to quantify meteorological drought severity over prior time periods (here 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are used). The indices are derived using the gridded WATCH Forcing Datasets, covering the period 1958-2012. Analysis was performed using logistic regression to identify the climatological drought index and accumulation period, or linear combination of drought indices, that best predicts the likelihood of a documented drought impact, defined by monthly presence/absence. The analysis was carried out for a subset of four European countries (Germany, UK, Norway, Slovenia) and four of the best documented impact sectors: Public Water Supply, Agriculture and Livestock Farming, Energy and Industry, and Environmental Quality. Preliminary results show that drought impacts in these countries occur most frequently due to a combination of short-term (2-6 month) precipitation deficits and long-term (12-24 month) potential evapotranspiration anomaly, likely associated with increased temperatures. Agricultural drought impacts

  5. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER from 1996-10-08 to 1996-11-05 (NODC Accession 9900066) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature, salinity, and nutrients data were collected from CTD and bottle casts in the Pacific Ocean from the Nathaniel B. Palmer from 08 October 1996 to 05...

  6. Turbidity, SOLAR RADIATION - ATMOSPHERIC and other data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER from 1994-11-09 to 1994-12-08 (NODC Accession 9700174) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature, salinity, and other data were collected from bottle and CTD casts from the Nathaniel B. Palmer from 09 November 1994 to 08 December 1994. Data were...

  7. Global patterns of drought recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwalm, Christopher R.; Anderegg, William R. L.; Michalak, Anna M.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Biondi, Franco; Koch, George; Litvak, Marcy; Ogle, Kiona; Shaw, John D.; Wolf, Adam; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Schaefer, Kevin; Cook, Robert; Wei, Yaxing; Fang, Yuanyuan; Hayes, Daniel; Huang, Maoyi; Jain, Atul; Tian, Hanqin


    Drought is a recurring multi-factor phenomenon with major impacts on natural and human systems1-3. Drought is especially important for land carbon sink variability, influencing climate regulation of the terrestrial biosphere4. While 20th Century trends in drought regime are ambiguous, “more extreme extremes” as well as more frequent and severe droughts3,7 are expected in the 21st Century. Recovery time, the length of time an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state, is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the spatiotemporal patterning and controls of drought recovery are largely unknown. Here we use three distinct global datasets of gross primary productivity to show that across diverse terrestrial ecosystems drought recovery times are driven by biological productivity and biodiversity, with drought length and severity of secondary importance. Recovery time, especially for extreme droughts, and the areal extent of ecosystems in recovery from drought generally increase over the 20th Century, supporting an increase globally in drought impact8. Our results indicate that if future Anthropocene droughts become more widespread as expected, that droughts will become more frequent relative to recovery time. This increases the risk of entering a new regime where vegetation never recovers to its original state and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink ensues.

  8. Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005 that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI, Decades Index (DI and Percent of Normal (PNI calculated and compared to determine drought severity, duration and drought occurrence for all stations. In addition, drought maps were prepared by Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method, for each study zone. Based on these indices, the most extensive drought occurred in 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, and 2001 years. The longest duration of drought based on SPI happened in 1994 and 1997 years. Furthermore, the extreme drought occurred in 1990 and 2001 in all stations. In conclusion, Central part of this province was more exposed to extreme drought during study period than other parts of this region.

  9. Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices (United States)

    Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.


    Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

  10. Did American social and economic events from 1865 to 1898 influence D.D. Palmer the chiropractor and entrepreneur? (United States)

    Batinić, Josip; Skowron, Mirek; Hammerich, Karin


    This paper explores how the social landscape of the latter half of the nineteenth century influenced D. D. Palmer and the many occupations he pursued. It focuses on the geographical area where D. D. lived from 1865 to 1898. This paper will show how the American social and economic events of the time provided favourable circumstances for D.D.'s entrepreneurial successes.

  11. Potential Bias in Projecting Future Regional Megadrought Risk: Insights From A Global Data-Model Framework (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T.; Cole, J. E.; Fasullo, J.; Loope, G. R.; Parsons, L. A.; Stevenson, S.


    Megadrought is one of the most significant and costly climate extremes, and one that stakeholders (e.g., water and other resource managers) the world over wish to understand better; in particular, they need estimates of the risk of severe droughts as a function of drought frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. In many dry-climate regions of the globe, megadrought is synonymous with multi-decadal drought. However, in other regions, megadrought can be defined as extended drought, mostly not seen in the period of instrumental observations, and that would have large impacts if it were to occur in the future. New and published paleoclimatic observations allow us to understand the spectrum of drought in many regions of the globe; droughts exceeding 50 years have occurred in recent Earth history in southwestern North America, sub-Saharan Africa, the Mediterranean and Australia, whereas shorter megadroughts have occurred in Monsoon Asia, Amazonia and elsewhere. Data-model comparisons for regions with sufficiently long (e.g., 1000-2000 years) records of observed hydroclimatic variability suggest that state-of-the-art models can provide realistic estimates of interannual to decadal drought risk, but underestimate the risk of megadrought. Likely reasons for this shortcoming are the lack of sufficient multi-decadal variability in simulations of the past and future, plus an underappreciated understanding about how temperature variability and land-surface feedbacks interact with hydrological and ecological drought, as well as the roles played by unusually wet hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., ENSO related) in ending droughts of long duration. Paleoclimatic records also provide the opportunity to estimate how much models underestimate megadrought risk as a function of locale, frequency, severity, duration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration; they also aid in providing stakeholders with bias-corrected estimates of megadrought risk.

  12. Underway pCO2 Measurements in Surface Waters and the Atmosphere During the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer 2016 Expeditions (NCEI Accession 0166630) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NCEI Accession 0166630 includes Surface underway data collected from R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer in the South Pacific Ocean, South Atlantic Ocean, Southern Oceans from...

  13. The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System (United States)

    Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.


    Drought is a difficult phenomenon to define; the way in which it is monitored, measured, assessed and even the very definition of drought vary from location to location based on the regional climate and the potential impacts. Drought is not an absolute condition but an evolving state brought on by relatively dry weather, growing more severe over time. There are many factors that define a drought and many more that define its impacts. Many definitions and indices are based solely on meteorological characteristics. Although this approach has merit, it is often necessary to go further to define those meteorological conditions in a way that is relevant to the land and water use in a region. A Drought Indices and Definitions Study was initiated in 2010 as part of a GEO Bilateral effort to examine drought across the U.S. and Canada. The Study's deliverables will include a survey of the drought indices used to monitor drought, and a bibliography of research addressing the nature of drought, across the diverse climates of the continent. With an increasing pressure to utilize drought monitoring as a primary indicator of need for disaster assistance, the reliability of drought indices must be validated and utilized in appropriate in various regions. In 2009, following over five years of participation in the North American Drought Monitor (NA-DM), the National Agroclimate Information Service of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada initiated a project to develop a Canadian Drought Monitor (Can-DM), based on primary principles used in the NA-DM and the US Drought Monitor (US-DM). The process of developing an operational monitoring tool and using drought indices in a vast and environmentally diverse country has been challenging. in Canada, many of the commonly used indices are not appropriate in certain regions or data densities do not allow for proper use. This paper will discuss the experiences that the Can-DM team has had dealing with these challenges, how these experiences

  14. Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe-a summary of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stagge, James H.; Stahl, Kerstin; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Loon, van Anne F.; Lanen, van Henny A.J.


    A prerequisite to mitigate the wide range of drought impacts is to establish a good understanding of the drought generating mechanisms from their initiation as a meteorological drought through to their development as soil moisture and hydrological drought. The DROUGHT-R&SPI project has

  15. The Courage to Teach: Exploring the Inner Landscape of a Teacher's Life (by Parker J. Palmer) (United States)

    Hurt Middlecamp, Reviewed By Catherine


    Most of us would willingly - perhaps even passionately - tackle the question of what we should teach our students. Similarly, we are likely to engage in a conversation about how we teach and our preferences for organizing classroom time and structures. Although the question of why we teach may be raised less often (and perhaps with a hint of sarcasm), this too is a question to which most can offer a thoughtful response. An entirely different matter, however, is the question of who is the person teaching. This who involves the inner realms of one's heart, mind, and soul. How does our identity affect the teaching and learning processes? As we teach, what paths are we following intellectually, emotionally, or even spiritually? How do these paths influence our relationship to our content and to our students? With an engaging honesty, Parker Palmer pursues these questions in The Courage to Teach: Exploring the Inner Landscape of A Teacher's Life. At the outset he points out (p 4): I have no quarrel with the what or how or why questions - except when they are posed as the only questions worth asking. All of them can yield important insights into teaching and learning. But none of them opens up the territory I want to explore in this book: the inner landscape of the teaching self. One might well question why those of us teaching chemistry should be interested in examining ourselves as part of the teaching equation. Isn't scientific knowledge supposed to be as objective as we can make it? Isn't it better for us to check our emotional or intellectual baggage at the classroom door, rather than to taint the content with our biases? Or perhaps more directly stated, is it not more practical and a better use of our time to simply deal with the realities of the day-to-day classroom issues? Admittedly these are fair questions. However, to become stuck on them is to miss the opportunities for reflection and growth as teachers that Palmer's book offers. Simply put, people teach

  16. Did American social and economic events from 1865 to 1898 influence D.D. Palmer the chiropractor and entrepreneur? (United States)

    Batinić, Josip; Skowron, Mirek; Hammerich, Karin


    This paper explores how the social landscape of the latter half of the nineteenth century influenced D. D. Palmer and the many occupations he pursued. It focuses on the geographical area where D. D. lived from 1865 to 1898. This paper will show how the American social and economic events of the time provided favourable circumstances for D.D.’s entrepreneurial successes. PMID:23997248

  17. Drought in the Emerald City

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babcock, S.D.


    This paper discusses a drought preparedness study being conducted for the Cedar River and Green River basins in western Washington state. The study is one of four regional case studies being managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as part of the National Study of Water Management During Drought. The overriding objective of the drought preparedness study is to leave the region better prepared for drought, through demonstration and test of drought preparedness tools and strategies. The study has served as a vehicle to promote a greater regional focus on drought related water supply problem solving. The 1992 drought in the Seattle/Tacoma metropolitan area provided a unique opportunity for the study team to demonstrate approaches to drought management being researched and tested as part of the study

  18. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.


    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  19. Influence of climate on alpine stream chemistry and water sources (United States)

    Foks, Sydney; Stets, Edward; Singha, Kamini; Clow, David W.


    The resilience of alpine/subalpine watersheds may be viewed as the resistance of streamflow or stream chemistry to change under varying climatic conditions, which is governed by the relative size (volume) and transit time of surface and subsurface water sources. Here, we use end‐member mixing analysis in Andrews Creek, an alpine stream in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, from water year 1994 to 2015, to explore how the partitioning of water sources and associated hydrologic resilience change in response to climate. Our results indicate that four water sources are significant contributors to Andrews Creek, including snow, rain, soil water, and talus groundwater. Seasonal patterns in source‐water contributions reflected the seasonal hydrologic cycle, which is driven by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snowpack. Flushing of soil water had a large effect on stream chemistry during spring snowmelt, despite making only a small contribution to streamflow volume. Snow had a large influence on stream chemistry as well, contributing large amounts of water with low concentrations of weathering products. Interannual patterns in end‐member contributions reflected responses to drought and wet periods. Moderate and significant correlations exist between annual end‐member contributions and regional‐scale climate indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index). From water year 1994 to 2015, the percent contribution from the talus‐groundwater end member to Andrews Creek increased an average of 0.5% per year (p < 0.0001), whereas the percent contributions from snow plus rain decreased by a similar amount (p = 0.001). Our results show how water and solute sources in alpine environments shift in response to climate variability and highlight the role of talus groundwater and soil water in providing hydrologic resilience to the system.

  20. High-resolution 3 T MRI of traumatic and degenerative triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) abnormalities using Palmer and Outerbridge classifications. (United States)

    Nozaki, T; Rafijah, G; Yang, L; Ueno, T; Horiuchi, S; Hitt, D; Yoshioka, H


    To investigate the usefulness of high-resolution 3 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the evaluation of traumatic and degenerative triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) abnormalities among three groups: patients presenting with wrist pain who were (a) younger than age 50 years or (b) age 50 or older (PT<50 and PT≥50, respectively), and (c) asymptomatic controls who were younger than age 50 years (AC). High-resolution 3 T MRI was evaluated retrospectively in 96 patients, including 47 PT<50, 38 PT≥50, and 11 AC. Two board-certified radiologists reviewed the MRI images independently. MRI features of TFCC injury were analysed according to the Palmer classification, and cartilage degeneration around the TFCC was evaluated using the Outerbridge classification. Differences in MRI findings among these groups were detected using chi-square test. Cohen's kappa was calculated to assess interobserver and intra-observer reliability. The incidence of Palmer class 1A, 1C and 1D traumatic TFCC injury was significantly (p<0.05) higher in PT≥50 than in PT<50 (class 1A: 47.4% versus 27.7%, class 1C: 31.6% versus 12.8%, and class 1D: 21.1% versus 2.1%). Likewise, MRI findings of TFCC degeneration were observed more frequently in PT≥50 than in PT<50 (p<0.01). Outerbridge grade 2 or higher cartilage degeneration was significantly (p<0.01) more frequently seen in PT≥50 than in PT<50 (55.3% versus 17% in the lunate, 28.9% versus 4.3% in the triquetrum, 73.7% versus 12.8% in the ulna). High-resolution wrist MRI at 3 T enables detailed evaluation of TFCC traumatic injury and degenerative changes using the Palmer and Outerbridge classifications, with good or excellent interobserver and intra-observer reliability. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Analysis of Droughts of Northwest of Iran Using the Reconnaissance Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    behrouz hosseini


    Full Text Available Introduction: Drought is a creeping natural phenomenon, which can occur in any region. Such phenomenon not only affects the region subjected to drought, but its adverse effects can also be extended to other adjacent regions. This phenomenon mainly starts with water deficiency (say less than long- term mean of variable under study such as rainfall, streamflow, groundwater level or soil moisture and progress in time. This period can be ended by increasing the rainfall and reaching the mean level. Even after the ending of a drought period, its adverse effects can be continued for several months. Although, it is not possible (at least at this time to prevent the occurrence of drought in a given region, it is not impossible to alleviate the drought consequences by scientific water management. Such a management should be employed before drought initiation as well as during it and continue on even after the end of the drought period. The frequency of the main drought characteristics is a major concern of this study. The Northwest of Iran recently encountered severe and prolonged droughts, such that a major portion of the Urmia Lake surface disappeared during the last drought in recent years. In order to study drought characteristics, we used the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI. This index is based on annual rainfall and potential reference crop evapotranspiration (abbreviated by PET here. This study employed the Monte Carlo simulation technique for synthetic data generation for analysis. Materials and Methods: The information from the 17 synoptic weather stations located in the North-west of Iran was used for drought analysis. Data was gathered from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization (IRIMO. In the first stage of research, the ratio of long term mean annual precipitation to evapotranspiration was calculated for each of the stations. For this purpose, the Penman-Montheis (FAO 56 method was selected for PET estimation. In the

  2. 600-year reconstruction of the tri-pole Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI) using tree-ring chronologies and a single coral proxy from Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. (United States)

    Palmer, Jonathan; Cook, Edward; Turney, Chris; Cook, Benjamin; Fenwick, Pavla; Allen, Kathy; Baker, Patrick; Henley, Benjamin


    The development of the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (i.e. ANZDA; Palmer et al., 2015) highlighted the potential for exploring the reconstruction of the Henley et al. (2015) tripole Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation index (TPI). The approach taken was to use both the 1375 drought atlas scPDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) grid-points and the 176 tree-ring and single coral proxies to determine the strength and spatial expression of their relationship to TPI. An important concern was the potential geographic bias of the proxies relative to the TPI. To examine this concern more closely, each of three main TPI regions of sea surface temperatures were extracted and then correlated to the ANZDA scPDSI grid-points. Results showed a robust correlation field to each of the three poles although the closest "Tasman" pole was, as expected, the strongest. Next, the 177 proxies were used in regressions to calibrate/verify to the TPI over the period CE 1871-1975. The positive results provided confidence for the reconstruction "summer" TPI values extending back to CE 1410. The wavelet pattern of the reconstruction shows the ENSO (2-7 year) band frequency has increased during the 20th century while the longer (10-30 year) periodicities are scattered throughout the entire time interval. Finally, the different recognised phases of the IPO are compared to the two reconstructions (grid-points and TPI) and earlier periods discussed. References: Henley BJ, Gergis J, Karoly DJ, Power S, Kennedy J, Folland CK (2015) A Tripole Index for the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation. Climate Dynamics 45, 3077-3090. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1. Palmer J, Cook ER, Turney CSM, Allen K, Fenwick P, Cook BI, O'Donnell A, Lough J, Grierson P, Baker P (2016) Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Environmental Research Letters 10, 1-12. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002.

  3. CO2 fertilization and enhanced drought resistance in Greek firs from Cephalonia Island, Greece. (United States)

    Koutavas, Athanasios


    Growth-climate relationships were investigated in Greek firs from Ainos Mountain on the island of Cephalonia in western Greece, using dendrochronology. The goal was to test whether tree growth is sensitive to moisture stress, whether such sensitivity has been stable through time, and whether changes in growth-moisture relationships support an influence of atmospheric CO2 on growth. Regressions of tree-ring indices (ad 1820-2007) with instrumental temperature, precipitation, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicate that growth is fundamentally limited by growing-season moisture in late spring/early summer, most critically during June. However, this simple picture obscures a pattern of sharply evolving growth-climate relationships during the 20th century. Correlations between growth and June temperature, precipitation, and PDSI were significantly greater in the early 20th century but later degraded and disappeared. By the late 20th-early 21st century, there remains no statistically significant relationship between moisture and growth implying markedly enhanced resistance to drought. Moreover, growth experienced a net increase over the last half-century culminating with a sharp spike in ad 1988-1990. This recent growth acceleration is evident in the raw ring-width data prior to standardization, ruling out artifacts from statistical detrending. The vanishing relationship with moisture and parallel enhancement of growth are all the more notable because they occurred against a climatic backdrop of increasing aridity. The results are most consistent with a significant CO2 fertilization effect operating through restricted stomatal conductance and improved water-use efficiency. If this interpretation is correct, atmospheric CO2 is now overcompensating for growth declines anticipated from drier climate, suggesting its effect is unusually strong and likely to be detectable in other up-to-date tree-ring chronologies from the Mediterranean. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing

  4. Experimental droughts: Are precipitation variability and methodological trends hindering our understanding of ecological sensitivities to drought? (United States)

    Hoover, D. L.; Wilcox, K.; Young, K. E.


    Droughts are projected to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may have dramatic and prolonged effects on ecosystem structure and function. There are currently hundreds of published, ongoing, and new drought experiments worldwide aimed to assess ecosystem sensitivities to drought and identify the mechanisms governing ecological resistance and resilience. However, to date, the results from these experiments have varied widely, and thus patterns of drought sensitivities have been difficult to discern. This lack of consensus at the field scale, limits the abilities of experiments to help improve land surface models, which often fail to realistically simulate ecological responses to extreme events. This is unfortunate because models offer an alternative, yet complementary approach to increase the spatial and temporal assessment of ecological sensitivities to drought that are not possible in the field due to logistical and financial constraints. Here we examined 89 published drought experiments, along with their associated historical precipitation records to (1) identify where and how drought experiments have been imposed, (2) determine the extremity of drought treatments in the context of historical climate, and (3) assess the influence of precipitation variability on drought experiments. We found an overall bias in drought experiments towards short-term, extreme experiments in water-limited ecosystems. When placed in the context of local historical precipitation, most experimental droughts were extreme, with 61% below the 5th, and 43% below the 1st percentile. Furthermore, we found that interannual precipitation variability had a large and potentially underappreciated effect on drought experiments due to the co-varying nature of control and drought treatments. Thus detecting ecological effects in experimental droughts is strongly influenced by the interaction between drought treatment magnitude, precipitation variability, and key

  5. USGS integrated drought science (United States)

    Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.


    Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, ecosystems, agricultural production, critical infrastructure, energy costs, human health, and local economies (Milly and others, 2005; Wihlite, 2005; Vörösmarty and others, 2010; Choat and others, 2012; Ledger and others, 2013). As global temperatures continue to increase, the frequency, severity, extent, and duration of droughts are expected to increase across North America, affecting both humans and natural ecosystems (Parry and others, 2007).The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long, proven history of delivering science and tools to help decision-makers manage and mitigate effects of drought. That said, there is substantial capacity for improved integration and coordination in the ways that the USGS provides drought science. A USGS Drought Team was formed in August 2016 to work across USGS Mission Areas to identify current USGS drought-related research and core capabilities. This information has been used to initiate the development of an integrated science effort that will bring the full USGS capacity to bear on this national crisis.

  6. The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras (United States)

    Stahle, David W.; Cook, Edward R.; Burnette, Dorian J.; Villanueva, Jose; Cerano, Julian; Burns, Jordan N.; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.; Acuña, Rodolfo; Torbenson, Max C. A.; Szejner, Paul; Howard, Ian M.


    Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34°N and 75-120°W using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Año de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time

  7. A Look into the National Drought Mitigation Center: Providing 15 Years of Drought Services (Invited) (United States)

    Svoboda, M. D.; Hayes, M. J.; Knutson, C. L.; Wardlow, B. D.


    The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) was formed in 1995 at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Over the past 15 years, the NDMC has made it a priority to work with various local, state, tribal and federal entities to provide a suite of drought/climate services, with a goal of bringing research to fruition through applications and operations. Through our research and outreach projects, the NDMC has worked to reduce risk to drought by developing several mitigation strategies, monitoring and decision making tools and other services aimed at enhancing our nation’s capacity to cope with drought. Two of the earliest NDMC activities were the creation of a website and assessing drought conditions around the United States. An electronic drought clearinghouse was built in 1995 at The site was designed, and still concentrates, on the concepts of drought monitoring, planning, and mitigation and also serves as a repository of information from around the world. The NDMC’s electronic quarterly newsletter, DroughtScape, disseminates information about all things drought to people across the country. In addition, the NDMC has developed and is home to websites for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Drought Impact Reporter (DIR), and the Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI). In an effort to inform decision makers, the NDMC continually pursues ways to raise the awareness and visibility of drought as one of the most costly hazards we face. This began in the mid-1990s with the creation of a state-based drought impact assessment map that would help lead to the formation of the USDM in 1999 and the DIR in 2005. The NDMC plays a key role in producing the weekly USDM and the monthly North American Drought Monitor (NADM). The USDM was created out of collaborations between the NDMC, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and has quickly become one of the most widely used products in assessing

  8. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought. (United States)

    D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P


    Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Towards Improved Understanding of Drought and Drought Impacts from Long Term Earth Observation Records (United States)

    Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.


    Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.

  10. Why Different Drought Indexes Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes in the U.S. Great Plains? (United States)

    Feng, S.; Hayes, M. J.; Trnka, M.


    Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the US Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, we analyzed 10 commonly-used drought indexes using the output from 26 state-of-the-art climate models. These drought indices were computed using potential evapotranspiration estimated by the physically-based Penman-Monteith method (PE_pm) and the empirically-based Thornthwaite method (PE_th). The results showed that the short-term drought indicators are similar to modeled surface soil moisture and show a small but consistent drying trend in the future. The long-term drought indicators and the total column soil moisture, however, are consistent in projecting more intense future drought. When normalized, the drought indices with PE_th all show unprecedented and possibly unrealistic future drying, while the drought indices with PE_pm show comparable dryness with the modeled soil moisture. Additionally, the drought indices with PE_pm are closely related to soil moisture during both the 20th and 21st Centuries. Overall, the drought indices with PE_pm, as well as the modeled total column soil moisture, suggest a widespread and very significant drying of the Great Plains region toward the end of the Century. Our results suggested that the sharp contracts about future drought risk in the Great Plains discussed in previous studies are caused by 1) comparing the projected changes in short-term droughts with that of the long-term droughts, and/or 2) computing the atmospheric evaporative demand using the empirically-based method (e.g., PE_th). Our analysis may be applied for drought projections in other regions across the globe.

  11. Interpretation of ground and aeromagnetic surveys of Palmer Land, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Masolov


    Full Text Available Aeromagnetic data for Palmer Land provide new information on crustal structures of the Antarctic Peninsula. Features shown on the compilation of the Lassiter Coast and Orville Coast are characterized by systems of subparallel regional anomaly zones and lineaments. The magnetic data reveal the widespread presence of an orthogonal pattern of crosscutting linear discontinuities that can be interpreted as a Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary fracture pattern. The main displacements in the anomaly pattern between the two units are recognized in Wetmore-Irvine glaciers area where the structure of the Antarctic Peninsula changes orientation from SW-NE to S-N. The NW-SE trending transitional zone is probably a transfer zone associated with north-westerly movement of the Lassiter Coast crustal segment relative to the Orville Coast segment. Within the Lassiter Coast a fragment of Pacific Margin Anomaly (PMA, Central Plateau Magnetic Anomaly and East Coast Magnetic Anomaly (ECMA are mapped. Two-dimensional modelling suggests that PMA is caused by a limited depth body (8 km consisting of numerous plutons, probably, of different ages, composition and magnetization. The Central Plateau Magnetic Anomaly and the Merrick-Sweeney-Latady zone of the Orville Coast are represented by strong positive anomaly bands that are associated with gabbro-diorite rocks and accompanying plutons intruded near by the border of Mount Poster Formation and Latady Formation. The ECMA are alignments of high-amplitude magnetic anomalies caused by gabbro-diorite bodies, which are located within the framework of the Cretaceous granite-granodiorite plutons. Granite-granodiorite plutons of Lassiter Coast Intrusive Suite are mostly reflected by positive anomalies (100-500 nT. Modelling studies and the character of distribution of the magnetic anomalies suggest that the plutons of Lassiter Coast Intrusive Suite are prominently reflected in magnetic anomalies of regional extent. The plutonic

  12. Comparative Analysis of Drought Indices for Drought Zone Scheme of Northern Khorasan Province of Iran




    Drought is one of the natural disasters which deeply influenced agricultural production. Drought monitoring programs could help to forecast and mitigate the impacts of drought. In this study occurrence, severity, and duration of drought were evaluated by monthly rainfall data (1986-2005) that were recorded at all meteorological stations in north Khorasan province of Iran. Drought indices include Standard Rainfall Index (SPI), Decades Index (DI) and Percent of Normal (PNI) calculated and compa...

  13. Drought in Africa 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalby, D; Harrison-Church, R J; Berzaz, F [eds.


    The second edition of Drought in Africa is reviewed. The book, which has been greatly expanded, looks at the Sahelian and Ethiopian droughts from a long-term perspective. Among the subjects included are: a description of the meteorological aspects of the drought; changes in animal and human populations; overpopulation of areas of nomadic pastoralism and of crop-producing areas; and mechanisms by which people survived. Cash crops, taxes, the market economy and over-centralized planning receive much of the blame for the effects of the drought.

  14. [Physiological responses of mycorrhizal Pinus massoniana seedlings to drought stress and drought resistance evaluation]. (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Ding, Gui-jie


    A greenhouse pot experiment was conducted to study the effects of inoculating Pisolithus tinctorius, Cenococcum geophilum, Cantharellus cibarius, and Suillus luteus on the physiological characteristics of Pinus massoniana seedlings under the conditions of drought stress and re-watering, with the drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings evaluated. Under drought stress, the MDA content and membrane' s relative permeability of P. massoniana seedlings increased, but these two indices in the inoculated (mycorrhizal) seedlings were significantly lower than these in the un-inoculated (control) seedlings. After re-watering, the MDA content and membrane's relative permeability of mycorrhizal seedlings had a rapid decrease, as compared with the control. In the first 21 days of drought stress, the production rate of superoxide radical of the seedlings increased, and the SOD, POD and NR activities of mycorrhizal seedlings increased significantly. With the extending of drought stress, the seedlings after re-watering had different recovery ability. Under the re-watering after 14 days drought stress, the SOD, POD and NR activities recovered. The drought resistance of the mycorrhizal seedlings was in the order of Suillus luteus 1 > Suillus luteus 7 > Cantharellus cibarius > Cenococcum geophilum > Pisolithus tinctorius. The SOD and MDA activities had a greater correlation with the mycorrhizal seedlings drought resistance, being able to be used as the indicators to evaluate the drought resistance of mycorrhizal seedlings.

  15. The Drought Monitor. (United States)

    Svoboda, Mark; Lecomte, Doug; Hayes, Mike; Heim, Richard; Gleason, Karin; Angel, Jim; Rippey, Brad; Tinker, Rich; Palecki, Mike; Stooksbury, David; Miskus, David; Stephens, Scott


    information about drought and to receive regional and local input that is in turn incorporated into the product. This paper describes the Drought Monitor and the interactive process through which it is created.

  16. Resilient Leaf Physiological Response of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. to Summer Drought and Drought Release

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen E. Pflug


    Full Text Available Drought is a major environmental constraint to trees, causing severe stress and thus adversely affecting their functional integrity. European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. is a key species in mesic forests that is commonly expected to suffer in a future climate with more intense and frequent droughts. Here, we assessed the seasonal response of leaf physiological characteristics of beech saplings to drought and drought release to investigate their potential to recover from the imposed stress and overcome previous limitations. Saplings were transplanted to model ecosystems and exposed to a simulated summer drought. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, stomatal conductance (gS, intercellular CO2 concentration (ci, net-photosynthesis (AN, PSII chlorophyll fluorescence (PItot, non-structural carbohydrate concentrations (NSC; soluble sugars, starch and carbon isotope signatures were measured in leaves throughout the growing season. Pre-dawn water potentials (ψpd, gS, ci, AN, and PItot decreased as drought progressed, and the concentration of soluble sugars increased at the expense of starch. Carbon isotopes in soluble sugars (δ13CS showed a distinct increase under drought, suggesting, together with decreased ci, stomatal limitation of AN. Drought effects on ψpd, ci, and NSC disappeared shortly after re-watering, while full recovery of gS, AN, and PItot was delayed by 1 week. The fast recovery of NSC was reflected by a rapid decay of the drought signal in δ13C values, indicating a rapid turnover of assimilates and a reactivation of carbon metabolism. After recovery, the previously drought-exposed saplings showed a stimulation of AN and a trend toward elevated starch concentrations, which counteracted the previous drought limitations. Overall, our results suggest that the internal water relations of beech saplings and the physiological activity of leaves are restored rapidly after drought release. In the case of AN, stimulation after drought may partially

  17. Local Perception of Drought Impacts in a Changing Climate: The Mega-Drought in Central Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina Aldunce


    Full Text Available Droughts are a recurrent and complex natural hazard whose frequency and magnitude are expected to increase with climate change. Despite the advances in responding and adapting to droughts (with the development of new policies, for example, droughts continue to cause serious impacts and suffering. Developing well-targeted public policies requires further research on adaptation. Specifically, understanding the public perception of drought can help to identify drivers of and barriers to adaptation and options. This research seeks to understand the public perception of drought in central Chile in order to inform adaptation-related policies and decision-making processes. This study focused on the Mega-drought, which was a protracted dry spell afflicting central Chile since 2010.

  18. Adaptive and self-averaging Thouless-Anderson-Palmer mean-field theory for probabilistic modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opper, Manfred; Winther, Ole


    We develop a generalization of the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) mean-field approach of disorder physics. which makes the method applicable to the computation of approximate averages in probabilistic models for real data. In contrast to the conventional TAP approach, where the knowledge...... of the distribution of couplings between the random variables is required, our method adapts to the concrete set of couplings. We show the significance of the approach in two ways: Our approach reproduces replica symmetric results for a wide class of toy models (assuming a nonglassy phase) with given disorder...... distributions in the thermodynamic limit. On the other hand, simulations on a real data model demonstrate that the method achieves more accurate predictions as compared to conventional TAP approaches....

  19. Drought preparedness and drought mitigation in the developing world׳s drylands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Solh


    Drought is a climatic event that cannot be prevented, but interventions and preparedness to drought can help to: (i be better prepared to cope with drought; (ii develop more resilient ecosystems (iii improve resilience to recover from drought; and (iv mitigate the impacts of droughts. Preparedness strategies to drought include: (a geographical shifts of agricultural systems; (b climate-proofing rainfall-based systems; (c making irrigated systems more efficient; (d expanding the intermediate rainfed–irrigated systems. The paper presents successful research results and case studies applying some innovative techniques where clear impact is demonstrated to cope with drought and contribute to food security in dry areas. The CGIAR Consortium Research Program (CRP on “Integrated and Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems for Improved Food Security and Livelihoods in Dry Areas” (in short, “Dryland Systems”, led by ICARDA, was launched in May 2013 with many partners and stakeholders from 40 countries. It addresses farming systems in dry areas, at a global level, involving 80 partner institutions. The Dryland Systems Program aims at coping with drought and water scarcity to enhance food security and reduce poverty in dry areas through an integrated agro-ecosystem approach. It will also deliver science-based solutions that can be adopted in regions that are not yet experiencing extreme shocks, but will be affected in the medium to long-term. The approach entails shifting the thinking away from the traditional focus on a small number of research components to take an integrated approach aiming to address agro-ecosystems challenges. Such an approach involves crops, livestock, rangeland, trees, soils, water and policies. It is one of the first global research for development efforts that brings “systems thinking” to farming innovations leading to improved livelihoods in the developing world. The new technique uses modern innovation platforms to involve all

  20. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel


    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  1. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.


    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  2. Operationalising resilience to drought: Multi-layered safety for flooding applied to droughts (United States)

    Rijke, Jeroen; Smith, Jennifer Vessels; Gersonius, Berry; van Herk, Sebastiaan; Pathirana, Assela; Ashley, Richard; Wong, Tony; Zevenbergen, Chris


    This paper sets out a way of thinking about how to prepare for and respond to droughts in a holistic way using a framework developed for managing floods. It shows how the multi-layered safety (MLS) approach for flood resilience can be utilised in the context of drought in a way that three layers of intervention can be distinguished for operationalising drought resilience: (1) protection against water shortage through augmentation and diversification of water supplies; (2) prevention of damage in case of water shortage through increased efficiency of water use and timely asset maintenance; (3) preparedness for future water shortages through mechanisms to reduce the use of water and adopt innovative water technologies. Application of MLS to the cities of Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney shows that recent water reforms in these cities were primarily focused on protection measures that aim to reduce the hazard source or exposure to insufficient water supplies. Prevention and preparedness measures could be considered in defining interventions that aim to further increase the drought resilience of these cities. Although further research is needed, the application suggests that MLS can be applied to the context of drought risk management. The MLS framework can be used to classify the suite of plans deployed by a city to manage future drought risks and can be considered a planning tool to identify opportunities for increasing the level of redundancy and hence resilience of the drought risk management system.

  3. Satellite assessment of early-season forecasts for vegetation conditions of grazing allotments in Nevada, United States (United States)

    Fifteen years of enhanced vegetation index data from the MODIS sensor are examined in conjunction with precipitation and the Palmer drought severity index to assess how well growing season conditions for vegetation within grazing allotments of Nevada can be predicted at different times of the year. ...

  4. On the propagation of drought : how climate and catchment characteristics influence hydrological drought development and recovery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.


    Drought is a severe natural disaster resulting in high economic loss and huge ecological and societal impacts. In this thesis drought is defined as a period of below-normal water availability in precipitation (meteorological drought), soil moisture (soil moisture drought), or groundwater and

  5. Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability (United States)

    Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa


    The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

  6. Forages and Pastures Symposium: assessing drought vulnerability of agricultural production systems in context of the 2012 drought. (United States)

    Kellner, O; Niyogi, D


    Weather and climate events and agronomic enterprise are coupled via crop phenology and yield, which is temperature and precipitation dependent. Additional coupling between weather and climate and agronomic enterprise occurs through agricultural practices such as tillage, irrigation, erosion, livestock management, and forage. Thus, the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and yield is coupled to the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and drought. Unraveling the different meteorological and climatological patterns by comparing different growing seasons provides insight into how drought conditions develop and what agricultural producers can do to mitigate and adapt to drought conditions. The 2012 drought in the United States greatly impacted the agricultural sector of the economy. With comparable severity and spatial extent of the droughts of the 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s, the 2012 drought impacted much of the U.S. crop and livestock producers via decreased forage and feed. This brief summary of drought impacts to agricultural production systems includes 1) the basics of drought; 2) the meteorology and climatology involved in forecasting, predicting, and monitoring drought with attribution of the 2012 drought explored in detail; and 3) comparative analysis completed between the 2011 and 2012 growing season. This synthesis highlights the complex nature of drought in agriculture production systems as producers prepare for future climate variability.

  7. About the book by Riitta V. Lahtinen and Russ C. Palmer. The Body Story

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomatina I.V.


    Full Text Available The study carried out by a married couple, specialists in the sphere of deafblindness (one of whom has got an Usher syndrome, is devoted to the development of means of non-verbal communication and music perception for people with double sensory defect — deafblindness. Russ Palmer is a professional musician who had lost his hearing capacity under the influence of Usher syndrome. At present together with his wife he is inventing new ways of widening the contacts with the external world for people who found themselves in the same difficult situation. The authors of the book prove that any welfare item like a pillow or a toy balloon can sometimes dramatically change the situation for better.

  8. Avaliação da qualidade de manga 'palmer' tratada com 1-metilciclopropeno e armazenada sob refrigeração e condição ambiente Evaluation of quality of 'palmer' mangoes fruit treated with 1-methylcyclopropene and stored under refrigeration and environmental conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ellen Toews Dollhojo


    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a qualidade de mangas da cv. Palmer tratadas com 1-metilciclopropeno (1-MCP mantidas sob armazenamento refrigerado e sob armazenamento refrigerado associado à exposição à temperatura ambiente por quatro dias. O delineamento experimental foi inteiramente casualizado, em fatorial 3 x 6, sendo 3 níveis do fator dose de 1-MCP (0 -testemunha, 100 nL.L-1 e 150 nL.L-1 e 6 níveis do fator tempo de armazenamento (0; 7; 14; 21; 28 e 35 dias de armazenamento refrigerado, no experimento 1, e 0; 7 + 4; 14 + 4; 21 + 4; 28 + 4 e 35 dias de armazenamento refrigerado + 4 dias sob condição ambiente, no experimento 2, com 3 repetições. Cada parcela experimental foi composta por 2 frutos. O uso de 1-MCP em mangas 'Palmer' mantidas sob refrigeração reduz as perdas de massa e ácido ascórbico, retardando, mas não impedindo o amadurecimento. O tratamento com 150 nL.L-1 não é mais eficiente que o com 100 nL.L-1, pelas características químicas analisadas. As mangas 'Palmer' expostas à condição ambiente por quatro dias apresentam expressivo murchamento e perda de qualidade, com base nas análises de sólidos solúveis, açúcares solúveis e acidez titulável.The objective of this work was to verify the behavior of mangoes cv. Palmer treated with 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP stored under refrigeration and under refrigeration associate in exposure for four days at room temperature. The experiment was carried out in a completely randomly design, 3 x 6 factorial, with 3 levels of the factor concentration of 1-methylcyclopropene (0 nL.L-1- witness, 100 nL.L-1 and 150 nL.L-1 and 6 levels of the factor period of storage (0, 7, 14, 21, 28 and 35 days of cool storage, on the set up 1, and 0, 7 + 4, 14 + 4, 21 + 4, 28 + 4 and 35 days of cool storage + 4 days of room storage, on the set up 2, with 3 replicates. The experimental units were built up with 2 fruits. The use of 1-methylcyclopropene on the fruit kept under

  9. Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) (United States)

    Sheffield, A. M.


    After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

  10. Climate and drought (United States)

    McNab, Alan L.

    Drought is a complex phenomenon that can be defined from several perspectives [Wilhite and Glantz, 1987]. The common characteristic and central idea of these perspectives is the straightforward notion of a water deficit. Complexity arises because of the need to specify the part of the hydrologic cycle experiencing the deficit and the associated time period. For example, a long-term deficit in deep groundwater storage can occur simultaneously with a short-term surplus of root zone soil water.Figure 1 [Changnon, 1987] illustrates how the definitions of drought are related to specific components of the hydrologic cycle. The dashed lines indicate the delayed translation of two hypothetical precipitation deficits with respect to runoff, soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater. From this perspective, precipitation can be considered as the carrier of the drought signal, and hydrological processes are among the final indicators that reveal the presence of drought [Hare, 1987; Klemes, 1987].

  11. Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China) (United States)

    Li, Yaohui


    Drought is one of the most common and frequent nature disasters in the world, particularly in China under the continental monsoonal climate with great variation. About thirty percent of economic loss caused by natural disasters is contributed by droughts in China, which is by far the most damaging weather disasters because of its long duration and extensive hazard areas. Droughts not only have a serious impact on the agriculture, water resources, ecology, natural environment, but also seriously affect the socio-economic such as human health, energy and transportation. Worsely, under the background of climate change, droughts in show increases in frequency, duration and scope in many places around the world, particularly northern China. Nowadays, droughts have aroused extensive concern of the scientists, governments and international community, and became one of the important scientific issues in geoscience research. However, most of researches on droughts in China so far were focused on the causes or regulars of one type of droughts (the atmosphere, agriculture or hydrological) from the perspective of the atmospheric circulation anomalies. Few of them considered a whole cycle of the drought-forming process from atmosphere-land interaction to agricultural/ecological one in terms of the land-atmosphere interaction; meanwhile, the feedback mechanism with the drought and land-atmosphere interaction is still unclear as well. All of them is because of lack of the relevant comprehensive observation experiment. "Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment" (DroughtPEX_China)is just launched in this requirement and background. DroughtPEX_China is supported by Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) of China (Grant No.GYHY201506001)—"Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project—the disaster-causing process and mechanism of drought in northern China". This project

  12. Upon Further Review: V. An Examination of Previous Lightcurve Analysis from the Palmer Divide Observatory (United States)

    Warner, Brian D.


    Updated results are given for nine asteroids previously reported from the Palmer Divide Observatory (PDO). The original images were re-measured to obtain new data sets using the latest version of MPO Canopus photometry software, analysis tools, and revised techniques for linking multiple observing runs covering several days to several weeks. Results that were previously not reported or were moderately different were found for 1659 Punkajarju, 1719 Jens, 1987 Kaplan, 2105 Gudy, 2961 Katsurahama, 3285 Ruth Wolfe, 3447 Burckhalter, 7816 Hanoi, and (34817) 2000 SE116. This is one in a series of papers that will examine results obtained during the initial years of the asteroid lightcurve program at PDO.

  13. Combined Palmer Type 1A and 1B Traumatic Lesions of the Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex A New Category. (United States)

    Nance, Erin; Ayalon, Omri; Yang, Steven


    We present a series of eight patients who underwent wrist arthroscopy for presumed solitary tears of the triangular fibrocartilage (TFC) and were, instead, found to have combined 1A (central tear) and 1B (ulnar avulsion) tears. The Palmer Classification does not currently categorize this combined pattern. All but one patient had a traumatic injury. Each subject had preoperative radiographs and MRI scans. TFC tears were evident on all MRI scans, though only one was suggestive of a combined tear pat - tern. Surgical management included arthroscopic central tear debridement and ulnar peripheral repair. Average follow-up was 22 months. Grip strength in the affected hand improved from 16% deficit as compared to the unaffected side, to 3.5% deficit postoperatively (p = 0.003), and visual analog scores (VAS) decreased from an average of 7.1/10 preoperatively to 2.3/10 postoperatively (p < 0.001). There was no statistically significant change in wrist range of motion (ROM), however. Arthroscopic debridement of the central perforation (1A lesion) with concomitant repair of the ulnar detachment (1B lesion) resulted in functional and symptomatic improvement. This combined 1A/1B TFC injury is not reliably diagnosed preoperatively and should be considered a new subset in the Palmer classification, as this will raise awareness of its presence and assist in preoperative planning of such lesions.

  14. A Comparison of Satellite Data-Based Drought Indicators in Detecting the 2012 Drought in the Southeastern US (United States)

    Yagci, Ali Levent; Santanello, Joseph A.; Rodell, Matthew; Deng, Meixia; Di, Liping


    The drought of 2012 in the North America devastated agricultural crops and pastures, further damaging agriculture and livestock industries and leading to great losses in the economy. The drought maps of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and various drought monitoring techniques based on the data collected by the satellites orbiting in space such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inter-compared during the 2012 drought conditions in the southeastern United States. The results indicated that spatial extent of drought reported by USDM were in general agreement with those reported by the MODIS-based drought maps. GRACE-based drought maps suggested that the southeastern US experienced widespread decline in surface and root-zone soil moisture and groundwater resources. Disagreements among all drought indicators were observed over irrigated areas, especially in Lower Mississippi region where agriculture is mainly irrigated. Besides, we demonstrated that time lag of vegetation response to changes in soil moisture and groundwater partly contributed to these disagreements, as well.

  15. Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series (United States)

    Vautard, R.; Ghil, M.


    Two dimensions of a dynamical system given by experimental time series are distinguished. Statistical dimension gives a theoretical upper bound for the minimal number of degrees of freedom required to describe the attractor up to the accuracy of the data, taking into account sampling and noise problems. The dynamical dimension is the intrinsic dimension of the attractor and does not depend on the quality of the data. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) provides estimates of the statistical dimension. SSA also describes the main physical phenomena reflected by the data. It gives adaptive spectral filters associated with the dominant oscillations of the system and clarifies the noise characteristics of the data. SSA is applied to four paleoclimatic records. The principal climatic oscillations and the regime changes in their amplitude are detected. About 10 degrees of freedom are statistically significant in the data. Large noise and insufficient sample length do not allow reliable estimates of the dynamical dimension.

  16. Lazer, modernidade, capitalismo: um olhar a partir da obra de Edward Palmer Thompson

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Andrade de Melo


    Full Text Available O processo de consolidação do modo de produção fabril paulatinamente configurou uma clara distinção entre a jornada de trabalho e um tempo livre. Que relação se pode estabelecer entre essa nova dinâmica dos tempos sociais e as tensões relacionadas à construção de um novo conjunto de comportamentos considerados adequados para a consolidação do capitalismo? Esse estudo tem por objetivo discutir o trato dessa questão na obra de Edward Palmer Thompson. Parece possível afirmar que, para ele, o controle do tempo do não-trabalho e das práticas de lazer foi compreendido como uma dimensão fundamental para garantir o "progresso".

  17. Fostering drought research and science-policy interfacing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van Henny A.J.; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis; Stahl, Kerstin; Wolters, Wouter; Andreu, Joaquin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Stefano, De Lucia; Seidl, Irmi; Rego, Francisco Castro; Massarutto, Antonio; Garnier, Emmanuel


    The DROUGHT-R&SPI project adopted a transdisciplinary approach that combined drought analyses for six selected Case Studies across Europe with drought analyses at the pan-European scale both for past and future climates. Achievements on drought as natural hazard, drought impacts, responses

  18. Pathways Into and Out of the 2012-2016 California-Nevada Drought—Lessons for Future Drought and Drought Termination (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.


    Droughts in California have historically been a function of prolonged deficits of precipitation from the largest storms (much more so than from medium to weak storms), and drought endings typically reflect the return of those same large storms and more. The recent 2012-2016 drought in California followed this pattern, being bracketed by the extremely wet 2011 and 2017 water years, both brought about by the arrival of multiple major atmospheric river storms, and was marked by one of the episodic multi-year periods when these storms are diverted from the State by anomalous atmospheric circulations over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 2012-2016 episode was also marked by conditions that have been much less "normal" for California droughts, with record warm temperatures adding significantly to the drought and its impacts. Except in the highest mountains, these temperatures contributed as much to the drought potential as did precipitation deficits. The temperatures also led to record snow droughts that focused most in the low to middle altitude snowfields. Together the persistent precipitation deficits and high temperatures of this drought are a prescient example of a major drought with precipitation deficits emphasized at higher altitudes and temperature effects at lower altitudes. This drought ended with the remarkably wet 2017 water year, due to the arrival of a record number of large atmospheric river storms and associated precipitation. But this termination of precipitation drought was marked by its own flirtation with record-breaking "warm" snow drought conditions in late 2016 as well as by an eventual springtime snowpack that was very large but nowhere near as large as in other historical years with correspondingly large precipitation totals, especially at low to middle altitudes. These patterns of temperature-accentuated drought emphasized at lower altitudes and precipitation-driven droughts and drought endings emphasized at higher altitudes, both delineated

  19. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System (United States)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.


    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  20. Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing, China (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hong-Bin


    Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions. In southwest China, summer drought mainly occurs from June to September, causing destructive and profound impact on agriculture, society, and ecosystems. The current study assesses the availability of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought in this area at 5-day scale. The drought indices include the relative moisture index ( M), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the composite index of meteorological drought (CIspi), and the improved composite index of meteorological drought (CIwap). Long-term daily precipitation and temperature from 1970 to 2014 are used to calculate 30-day M ( M 30), SPI (SPI30), SPEI (SPEI30), 90-day SPEI (SPEI90), CIspi, and CIwap. The 5-day soil moisture observations from 2010 to 2013 are applied to assess the performance of these drought indices. Correlation analysis, overall accuracy, and kappa coefficient are utilized to investigate the relationships between soil moisture and drought indices. Correlation analysis indicates that soil moisture is well correlated with CIwap, SPEI30, M 30, SPI30, and CIspi except SPEI90. Moreover, drought classifications identified by M 30 are in agreement with that of the observed soil moisture. The results show that M 30 based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration is an appropriate indicator for monitoring drought condition at a finer scale in the study area. According to M 30, summer drought during 1970-2014 happened in each year and showed a slightly upward tendency in recent years.

  1. Economics and societal considerations of drought (United States)

    Jeff Prestemon; Linda Kruger; Karen L. Abt; Michael Bowker; Consuelo Brandeis; Dave Calkin; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Charlotte Ham; Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey Kline; Travis Warziniack


    The economic and social effects of drought are diverse and related to physical characteristics of drought, including spatial extent, severity, duration, and frequency that combine to determine drought’s overall effects on society. Most of the attention given to economic and social impacts of drought focuses on adverse consequences, but technology, public...

  2. Drought and groundwater management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik S; Jensen, Frank

    This paper considers the problem of a water management authority faced with the threat of a drought that hits at an uncertain date. Three management policies are investigated: i) a laissez-faire (open-access) policy of automatic adjustment through a zero marginal private net benefit condition, ii......-drought steady-state equilibrium stock size of water under policy iii) is smaller than under policy ii) and, hence, a precautionary stock size should not be built up prior to the drought....

  3. Introduction 'Governance for Drought Resilience'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bressers, Nanny; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Larrue, Corinne; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne


    This book is about governance for drought resilience. But that simple sentence alone might rouse several questions. Because what do we mean with drought, and how does that relate to water scarcity? And what do we mean with resilience, and why is resilience needed for tackling drought? And how does

  4. Assessment of Drought Severity Techniques - A Historical Perspective (United States)

    Panu, U. S.; Crinklaw, T.


    Droughts are natural phenomenon experienced by all nations across the globe. Drought inherently means a scarcity of water, which adversely affects various sectors of human socio-economic spectrum, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation, water supply, industry, recreation, navigation, fish production etc. The prime cause of droughts is the occurrence of less than optimal (below normal) precipitation, which has its origin to various natural reasons, the most important being the global climatic forcing. Droughts are also referred to as sustained and regionally extensive occurrences of below average water availability which invariably cultivate into environmental disasters. The evolution of a drought event is defined into four types; meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic. Drought affects all aspects of societal systems irrespective of how it is defined. This has led to a wide range of studies conducted by meteorologists, ecologists, environmentalists, hydrologists, geologists and agricultural scientists in attempts to understand drought processes as required to analyze and predict the impacts of droughts. A conceptual definition, such as a shortage of water relied on by human activity, avoids quantification of a drought event. On the other hand, the purpose of an operational definition is to determine the beginning, termination, and severity of a drought event. The severity assessment of droughts is of primary importance for allocation and management of available water resources. The progression and impact of historical droughts in a region is helpful for developing relationships and techniques to investigate relevant characteristics of droughts. For optimum drought preparedness and mitigative responses, professional bodies need to provide information to private and government agencies in a manner that may also be understood by their employers, stakeholders and the general public. Drought indicators bridge this communication gap between all

  5. Drought tolerance in potato (S. tuberosum L.): Can we learn from drought tolerance research in cereals? (United States)

    Monneveux, Philippe; Ramírez, David A; Pino, María-Teresa


    Drought tolerance is a complex trait of increasing importance in potato. Our knowledge is summarized concerning drought tolerance and water use efficiency in this crop. We describe the effects of water restriction on physiological characteristics, examine the main traits involved, report the attempts to improve drought tolerance through in vitro screening and marker assisted selection, list the main genes involved and analyze the potential interest of native and wild potatoes to improve drought tolerance. Drought tolerance has received more attention in cereals than in potato. The review compares these crops for indirect selection methods available for assessment of drought tolerance related traits, use of genetic resources, progress in genomics, application of water saving techniques and availability of models to anticipate the effects of climate change on yield. It is concluded that drought tolerance improvement in potato could greatly benefit from the transfer of research achievements in cereals. Several promising research directions are presented, such as the use of fluorescence, reflectance, color and thermal imaging and stable isotope techniques to assess drought tolerance related traits, the application of the partial root-zone drying technique to improve efficiency of water supply and the exploitation of stressful memory to enhance hardiness. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Drought as a natural disaster

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maybank, J. [Agvironics Consulting, SK (Canada); Bonsal, B. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Geography; Jones, K. [Environment Canada, Downsview, ON (Canada). Canadian Climate Centre; Lawford, R. [Canadian Climate Centre, Saskatoon, SK (Canada). National Hydrology Research Centre; O`Brien, E.G. [Agriculture Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Energy Analysis and Policy Div.; Ripley, E.A. [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon, SK (Canada). Dept. of Soil Science; Wheaton, E. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)


    A discussion of droughts as a major natural disaster in dry areas such as the Canadian Prairies where precipitation patterns are seasonal, was presented. Environmental damages include soil degradation and erosion, vegetation damage, slough and lake deterioration and wildlife loss. The development and application of specific soil moisture and drought indices based on cumulative precipitation deficits have enhanced drought monitoring programs. The identification of precursor conditions raises the possibility that the likelihood of a drought occurring in a particular year or growing season might be predictable. The ability to forecast seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies is potentially feasible using a suitable merging of precursor parameters and modelling methodologies. Research activity to identify and evaluate new mitigative measure should be increased to keep pace with the prospects of drought predictability. 90 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  7. Drought priming at vegetative growth stage enhances nitrogen-use efficiency under post-anthesis drought and heat stress in wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, S.; Li, Xiangnan; Larsen, Dorthe Horn


    reached ca. −0.9 MPa) at the 5th-leaf stage for 11 days, and leaf water relations and gas exchange rates, grain yield and yield components, and agronomic nitrogen-use efficiency (ANUE) of the primed and non-primed plants under post-anthesis drought and heat stress were investigated. Compared with the non......To study the effects of early drought priming at 5th-leaf stage on grain yield and nitrogen-use efficiency in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under post-anthesis drought and heat stress, wheat plants were first exposed to moderate drought stress (drought priming; that is, the leaf water potential......-primed plants, the drought-primed plants possessed higher leaf water potential and chlorophyll content, and consequently a higher photosynthetic rate during post-anthesis drought and heat stress. Drought priming also resulted in higher grain yield and ANUE in wheat under post-anthesis drought and heat stress...

  8. Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat (United States)

    Budak, Hikmet; Kantar, Melda; Yucebilgili Kurtoglu, Kuaybe


    The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum) and durum wheat (Triticum durum) and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides), which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance. PMID:23766697

  9. Drought Tolerance in Modern and Wild Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikmet Budak


    Full Text Available The genus Triticum includes bread (Triticum aestivum and durum wheat (Triticum durum and constitutes a major source for human food consumption. Drought is currently the leading threat on world's food supply, limiting crop yield, and is complicated since drought tolerance is a quantitative trait with a complex phenotype affected by the plant's developmental stage. Drought tolerance is crucial to stabilize and increase food production since domestication has limited the genetic diversity of crops including wild wheat, leading to cultivated species, adapted to artificial environments, and lost tolerance to drought stress. Improvement for drought tolerance can be achieved by the introduction of drought-grelated genes and QTLs to modern wheat cultivars. Therefore, identification of candidate molecules or loci involved in drought tolerance is necessary, which is undertaken by “omics” studies and QTL mapping. In this sense, wild counterparts of modern varieties, specifically wild emmer wheat (T. dicoccoides, which are highly tolerant to drought, hold a great potential. Prior to their introgression to modern wheat cultivars, drought related candidate genes are first characterized at the molecular level, and their function is confirmed via transgenic studies. After integration of the tolerance loci, specific environment targeted field trials are performed coupled with extensive analysis of morphological and physiological characteristics of developed cultivars, to assess their performance under drought conditions and their possible contributions to yield in certain regions. This paper focuses on recent advances on drought related gene/QTL identification, studies on drought related molecular pathways, and current efforts on improvement of wheat cultivars for drought tolerance.

  10. Building the vegetation drought response index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) to monitor agricultural drought: first results (United States)

    Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.


    Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg

  11. Precursor conditions related to Zimbabwe's summer droughts (United States)

    Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong


    Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.

  12. Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes. (United States)

    Gazol, Antonio; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Gutiérrez, Emilia; de Luis, Martin; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Novak, Klemen; Rozas, Vicente; Tíscar, Pedro A; Linares, Juan C; Martín-Hernández, Natalia; Martínez Del Castillo, Edurne; Ribas, Montse; García-González, Ignacio; Silla, Fernando; Camisón, Alvaro; Génova, Mar; Olano, José M; Longares, Luis A; Hevia, Andrea; Tomás-Burguera, Miquel; Galván, J Diego


    Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Status of Drought and Desertification in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutiso, S.K


    The author defined drought in three points of view, viz: agricultural, meteorological and hydrological. All categories of drought are important in the understanding of the society's vulnerability to drought and adjustment mechanisms. Agricultural and hydrological droughts have been shown to have far greater socio-economic and political impacts to people living in the dry lands. methods of predicting drought have been highlighted. Early warning systems should be put in places at District level. Mitigation and rehabilitation of people suffering drought and attendant famine should involve both short term and long term strategies. Rain-harvesting techniques, soil and water conservation, crop water requirement and drought risk forecasting should be carried out along with other measures to combat desrtification

  14. Novel Digital Features Discriminate Between Drought Resistant and Drought Sensitive Rice Under Controlled and Field Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingfeng Duan


    Full Text Available Dynamic quantification of drought response is a key issue both for variety selection and for functional genetic study of rice drought resistance. Traditional assessment of drought resistance traits, such as stay-green and leaf-rolling, has utilized manual measurements, that are often subjective, error-prone, poorly quantified and time consuming. To relieve this phenotyping bottleneck, we demonstrate a feasible, robust and non-destructive method that dynamically quantifies response to drought, under both controlled and field conditions. Firstly, RGB images of individual rice plants at different growth points were analyzed to derive 4 features that were influenced by imposition of drought. These include a feature related to the ability to stay green, which we termed greenness plant area ratio (GPAR and 3 shape descriptors [total plant area/bounding rectangle area ratio (TBR, perimeter area ratio (PAR and total plant area/convex hull area ratio (TCR]. Experiments showed that these 4 features were capable of discriminating reliably between drought resistant and drought sensitive accessions, and dynamically quantifying the drought response under controlled conditions across time (at either daily or half hourly time intervals. We compared the 3 shape descriptors and concluded that PAR was more robust and sensitive to leaf-rolling than the other shape descriptors. In addition, PAR and GPAR proved to be effective in quantification of drought response in the field. Moreover, the values obtained in field experiments using the collection of rice varieties were correlated with those derived from pot-based experiments. The general applicability of the algorithms is demonstrated by their ability to probe archival Miscanthus data previously collected on an independent platform. In conclusion, this image-based technology is robust providing a platform-independent tool for quantifying drought response that should be of general utility for breeding and functional

  15. Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiso Muyambo


    Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

  16. Asteroid Lightcurve Analysis at the Palmer Divide Observatory: 2012 September - 2013 January (United States)

    Warner, Brian D.


    Lightcurves for 40 asteroids were obtained at the Palmer Divide Observatory (PDO) from 2012 September to 2013 January: 495 Eulalia, 1694 Kaiser, 2001 Einstein, 3086 Kalbaugh, 3635 Kreutz, 5806 Archieroy, 6310 Jankonke, 6447 Terrycole, 6744 Komoda, 7086 Bopp, 7560 Spudis, 8325 Trigo-Rodriguez, 11149 Tateshina, 11709 Eudoxos, (13245) 1998 MM19, (13573) 1993 FZ18, 14395 Tommorgan, 15434 Mittal, (17657) 1996 VO4, (22013) 1999 XO89, (26916) 1996 RR2, 27776 Cortland, (30878) 1992 GQ, (30981) 1995 SJ4, (31831) 1999 YL, (32626) 2001 RX64, (51371) 2000 XF15, 55844 Bicak, (55854) 1996 VS1, (63440) 2001 MD30, (66832) 1999 UE45, (70927) 1999 VX210, (72675) 2001 FP54, (86388) 2000 AT60, (90988) 1997 XS13, (123937) 2001 EX16, (136017) 2002 VH74, (192683) 1999 SO27, (330825) 2008 XE3, and 2012 TC4. Based on data and analysis in 2012 for 27776 Cortland, the previously reported period from 2009 has been revised.

  17. California's Drought - Stress test for the future (United States)

    Lund, J. R.


    The current California drought is in its third dry years, with this year being the third driest years in a 106-year record. This drought occurs at a time when urban, agricultural, and environmental water demands have never been greater. This drought has revealed the importance of more quantitative evaluation and methods for water assessment and management. All areas of water and environmental management are likely to become increasingly stressed, and have essentially drought-like conditions, in the future, as California's urban, agricultural, and environmental demands continue to expand and as the climate changes. In the historical past, droughts have pre-viewed stresses developing in the future and helped focus policy-makers, the public, and stakeholders on preparing for these developing future conditions. Multi-decade water management strategies are often galvinized by drought. Irrigation was galvanized by California droughts in the 1800s, reservoir systems by the 1928-32 drought, urban water conservation by the 1976-77 drought, and water markets by the 1988-92 drought. With each drought, demands for tighter accounting, rights, and management have increased. This talk reviews the prospects and challenges for increased development and use of water data and systems analysis in the service of human and environmental water demands in California's highly decentralized water management system, and the prospects if these challenges are not more successfully addressed.

  18. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong


    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  19. Drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality (United States)

    Xu, C.; Wang, M.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Middleton, R. S.


    Vegetation is a key regulator of the global carbon cycle via CO2 absorption through photosynthesis and subsequent growth; however, low water availability, heat stress, and disturbances associated with droughts could substantially reduce vegetation growth and increase vegetation mortality. As far as we know, there are few studies have assessed the drought impact on vegetation growth and mortality at regional and global scales. In this study, we analyzed 13 Earth System models (ESMs) to quantify the impact of drought on GPP and linked the remote-sensing based tree mortality to observed drought indices to assess the drought impact on tree mortality in continental US (CONUS). Our analysis of 13 Earth System models (ESMs) shows that the average global gross primary production (GPP) reduction per year associated with extreme droughts over years 2075-2099 is predicted to be 3-5 times larger than that over years 1850-1999. The annual drought-associated reduction in GPP over years 2075-2099 could be 52 and 74 % of annual fossil fuel carbon emission during years 2000-2007. Increasing drought impacts on GPP are driven primarily by the increasing drought frequency. The risks of drought-associated GPP reduction are particularly high for temperate and tropical regions. The consistent prediction of higher drought-associated reduction in NPP across 13 ESMs suggests increasing impacts of drought on the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming. Our analysis of drought impact on tree mortality showed that drought-associated carbon loss accounts for 12% of forest carbon loss in CONUS for 2000-2014, which is about one-fifth of that resulting from timber harvesting and 1.35 % of average annual fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. for the same period. The carbon stock loss from natural disturbances for 2000-2014 is approximately 75% of the total carbon loss from anthropogenic disturbance (timber harvesting), suggesting that natural disturbances play a very important role on forest

  20. A process-based typology of hydrological drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Lanen, van H.A.J.


    Hydrological drought events have very different causes and effects. Classifying these events into distinct types can be useful for both science and management. We propose a hydrological drought typology that is based on governing drought propagation processes derived from catchment-scale drought

  1. Nonparametric Integrated Agrometeorological Drought Monitoring: Model Development and Application (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Qin; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Huang, Qingzhong; Sun, Peng


    Drought is a major natural hazard that has massive impacts on the society. How to monitor drought is critical for its mitigation and early warning. This study proposed a modified version of the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) based on precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, i.e., modified multivariate standardized drought index (MMSDI). This study also used nonparametric joint probability distribution analysis. Comparisons were done between standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), MSDI, and MMSDI, and real-world observed drought regimes. Results indicated that MMSDI detected droughts that SPEI and/or SSMI failed to do. Also, MMSDI detected almost all droughts that were identified by SPEI and SSMI. Further, droughts detected by MMSDI were similar to real-world observed droughts in terms of drought intensity and drought-affected area. When compared to MMSDI, MSDI has the potential to overestimate drought intensity and drought-affected area across China, which should be attributed to exclusion of the evapotranspiration components from estimation of drought intensity. Therefore, MMSDI is proposed for drought monitoring that can detect agrometeorological droughts. Results of this study provide a framework for integrated drought monitoring in other regions of the world and can help to develop drought mitigation.

  2. Drought Characterisation Using Ground and Remote Sensing Data (United States)

    Hore, Sudipta Kumar; Werner, Micha; Maskey, Shreedhar


    The North-West of Bangladesh is frequently affected by drought, which may have profound impacts to different water related sectors. The characterisation and identification of drought is, however, challenging. Despite several standard drought indices being available it is important that indicators proposed in support of an effective drought management are related to the impacts drought may have. In this study we present the characterisation of drought in the districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur in North-Western Bangladesh. Drought indicators were developed using available temperature, precipitation, river discharge and groundwater level data, as well as from remotely sensed NDVI data. We compare these indicators to records of drought impacts to agriculture, fisheries and migration collected from relevant organisations, as well as through interviews with key stakeholders, key informants, and community leaders. The analysis shows that droughts occur frequently, with nine occurrences in the last 42 years, as found using common meteorological drought indicators. NDVI data corroborated these events, despite being only available from 2001. The agricultural sector was adversely impacted in all events, with impacts correlated to drought severity. Impacts to the fisheries sector were, however, reported only three times, though impacts to fisheries are less well recorded. Interestingly, the good relationship between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural impacts weakens in the last decade. This appears to be due to the intensification of irrigation using groundwater, with the declining groundwater levels found in Rajshahi district suggesting overexploitation of the resource, and the increasing importance of groundwater drought indicators. The study reveals the drought indicators that are important to the agriculture and fisheries sectors, and also tentative threshold values at which drought start to impact these sectors. Such sector relevant drought indicators, as

  3. Identification of drought-responsive miRNAs and physiological characterization of tea plant (Camellia sinensis L.) under drought stress. (United States)

    Guo, Yuqiong; Zhao, Shanshan; Zhu, Chen; Chang, Xiaojun; Yue, Chuan; Wang, Zhong; Lin, Yuling; Lai, Zhongxiong


    Drought stress is one of the major natural challenges in the main tea-producing regions of China. The tea plant (Camellia sinensis) is a traditional beverage plant whose growth status directly affects tea quality. Recent studies have revealed that microRNAs (miRNAs) play key functions in plant growth and development. Although some miRNAs have been identified in C. sinensis, little is known about their roles in the drought stress response of tea plants. Physiological characterization of Camellia sinensis 'Tieguanyin' under drought stress showed that the malondialdehyde concentration and electrical conductivity of leaves of drought-stressed plants increased when the chlorophyll concentration decreased under severe drought stress. We sequenced four small-RNA (sRNA) libraries constructed from leaves of plants subjected to four different treatments, normal water supply (CK); mild drought stress (T1); moderate drought stress (T2) and severe drought stress (T3). A total of 299 known mature miRNA sequences and 46 novel miRNAs were identified. Gene Ontology enrichment analysis revealed that most of the differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes analysis revealed that the most highly enriched pathways under drought stress were D-alanine metabolism, sulfur metabolism, and mineral absorption pathways. Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to validate the expression patterns of 21 miRNAs (2 up-regulated and 19 down-regulated under drought stress). The observed co-regulation of the miR166 family and their targets ATHB-14-like and ATHB-15-like indicate the presence of negative feedback regulation in miRNA pathways. Analyses of drought-responsive miRNAs in tea plants showed that most of differentially expressed-miRNA target genes were related to regulation of transcription. The results of study revealed that the expressions of phase-specific miRNAs vary with morphological, physiological, and

  4. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tree-ring variation in teak (Tectona grandis L.) from Allapalli, Maharashtra in relation to moisture and Palmer Drought Severity Index, India · Somaru Ram H P Borgaonkar A A Munot A B Sikder · More Details Abstract Fulltext PDF. We developed a ring-width chronology of teak (Tectona grandis L.) from a moisture stressed ...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Marković


    Full Text Available Drought occurs due to lack of water in the soil, as well as due to disturbances in the circulation of the atmosphere. The duration of the drought may be different, and droughts not only the lack of rainfall, but also erratic distribution of rainfall throughout the year. The intensity of droughts amplified high temperatures, low relative humidity and dry, hot winds. The drought in many areas of common occurrence that repeats without a discernible regularity. Although it can be found in almost all parts of the world, its characteristics vary from region to region. Defining drought is therefore difficult and depends on regional differences and needs, but also from the perspective from which to observe this phenomenon. In the broadest sense, the drought is due to the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, leading to water shortages for some activities, group activities or an entire sector of the environment. Drought can not be viewed solely as a physical phenomenon. The occurrence of drought, because of the weather, a lot of influences and reflects on the plants and agricultural production.

  6. Amazon forest response to repeated droughts (United States)

    Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; ter Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.


    The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

  7. Assessing and mapping drought hazard in Africa and South-Central America with a Meteorological Drought Severity Index (United States)

    Carrao, Hugo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen


    Drought is a recurring extreme climate event characterized by a temporary deficit of precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow, or any combination of the three taking place at the same time. The immediate consequences of short-term (i.e. a few weeks duration) droughts are, for example, a fall in crop production, poor pasture growth and a decline in fodder supplies from crop residues, whereas prolonged water shortages (e.g. of several months or years duration) may, amongst others, lead to a reduction in hydro-electrical power production and an increase of forest fires. As a result, comprehensive drought risk management is nowadays critical for many regions in the world. Examples are many African and South-and Central American countries that strongly depend on rain-fed agriculture for economic development with hydroelectricity and biomass as main sources of energy. Drought risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard, i.e. the physical nature of droughts, and the degree to which a population or activity is vulnerable to its effects. As vulnerability to drought is increasing globally and certain tasks, such as distributive policies (e.g. relief aid, regulatory exemptions, or preparedness investments), require information on drought severity that is comparable across different climatic regions, greater attention has recently been directed to the development of methods for a standardized quantification of drought hazard. In this study we, therefore, concentrate on a methodology for assessing the severity of historical droughts and on mapping the frequency of their occurrence. To achieve these goals, we use a new Meteorological Drought Severity Index (MDSI). The motivation is twofold: 1) the observation that primitive indices of drought severity directly measure local precipitation shortages and cannot be compared geographically; and that 2) standardized indices of drought do not take into account

  8. Politics and drought planning: Friends or foes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDowell, B.D.; Blomquist, W.


    Nothing frustrates the average drought planner more than politics. Yet, droughts cannot be prepared for realistically without reliable political partners, smoothly cooperating government agencies, and strong public support. This paper suggests six rules for linking technical drought planning processes to the political processes and institutions that can implement drought plans

  9. Genetic dissection of drought tolerance in potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anithakumari, A.M.


    Drought is the most important cause of crop and yield loss around the world. Breeding for

    drought tolerance is not straightforward, as drought is a complex trait. A better understanding

    of the expression of drought traits, the genes underlying the traits and the way these

  10. Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis induces strigolactone biosynthesis under drought and improves drought tolerance in lettuce and tomato. (United States)

    Ruiz-Lozano, Juan Manuel; Aroca, Ricardo; Zamarreño, Ángel María; Molina, Sonia; Andreo-Jiménez, Beatriz; Porcel, Rosa; García-Mina, José María; Ruyter-Spira, Carolien; López-Ráez, Juan Antonio


    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis alleviates drought stress in plants. However, the intimate mechanisms involved, as well as its effect on the production of signalling molecules associated with the host plant-AM fungus interaction remains largely unknown. In the present work, the effects of drought on lettuce and tomato plant performance and hormone levels were investigated in non-AM and AM plants. Three different water regimes were applied, and their effects were analysed over time. AM plants showed an improved growth rate and efficiency of photosystem II than non-AM plants under drought from very early stages of plant colonization. The levels of the phytohormone abscisic acid, as well as the expression of the corresponding marker genes, were influenced by drought stress in non-AM and AM plants. The levels of strigolactones and the expression of corresponding marker genes were affected by both AM symbiosis and drought. The results suggest that AM symbiosis alleviates drought stress by altering the hormonal profiles and affecting plant physiology in the host plant. In addition, a correlation between AM root colonization, strigolactone levels and drought severity is shown, suggesting that under these unfavourable conditions, plants might increase strigolactone production in order to promote symbiosis establishment to cope with the stress. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. The Temporospatial Variations and Propagation of Drought in China (United States)

    Ma, F.; Ye, A.; Luo, L.; Duan, Q.


    Drought monitoring and forecasting system is a crucial component of drought preparedness. However, under the changing environment, the hydro-climate presents non-stationarity due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, which brings great challenges for drought forecasts. This study investigates the temporospatial characteristics and propagation of different types of droughts from 1961 to 2016 in China. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) are used to characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts, respectively. The soil moisture and streamflow datasets are obtained from simulations by the distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrological model, which has been calibrated and validated in China. The spatial patterns of drought frequency and severity, and temporal characteristics of drought coverage, drought duration and drought intensity are investigated. The cross wavelet analysis is used to examine the correlations between meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. The study also explores how different types of droughts are linked and how one drought morphs into another through time. The findings on temporospatial variations and propagation of drought will provide better understanding on drought development to be helpful for improvement of drought monitoring and forecasting.

  12. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds (United States)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing


    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  13. Spatial patterns of drought persistence in East China (United States)

    Meng, L.; Ford, T.


    East China has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent decades. Understanding the characteristics of droughts and their persistence will provide operational guidelines for water resource management and agricultural production. This study uses a logistic regression model to measure the probability of drought occurrence in the current season given the previous season's Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as drought persistence. Results reveal large spatial and seasonal variations in the relationship between the previous season's SPI and the drought occurrence probability in a given season. The drought persistence averaged over the entire study area for all the four seasons is approximately 34% with large variations from season to season and from region to region. The East and Northeast regions have the largest summer drought persistence ( 40%) and lowest fall drought persistence ( 28%). The spatial pattern in winter and spring drought persistence is dissimilar with stronger winter and weaker spring drought persistence in the Southwest and Northeast relative to other regions. Logistic regression analysis indicates a stronger negative relationship in summer-to-fall (or between fall drought occurrence and summer SPI) than other inter-season relationships. This study demonstrates that the impact of previous season SPI and SOI on current season drought varies substantially from region to region and from season to season. This study also shows stronger drought persistence in summer than in other seasons. In other words, the probability of fall drought occurrence is closely related to summer moisture conditions in the East China.

  14. European Drought and Water Scarcity Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Özerol, Gül; Stein, Ulf; Troeltzsch, Jenny; Landgrebe, Ruta; Szendrenyi, Anna; Vidaurre, Rodrigo; Bressers, Hans; Bressers, Nanny; Larrue, Corinne


    Over the last decade, Europe’s drought management and policy has been characterized by a predominantly crisis-oriented approach. However, the widening gap between the impacts of drought episodes and the ability to prepare, manage and mitigate such droughts has motivated the European Union (EU) to

  15. Improving Federal Response to Drought. (United States)

    Wilhite, Donald A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Glantz, Michael H.


    Severe and widespread drought occurred over a large portion of the United States between 1974 and 1977. Impacts on agriculture and other industries, as well as local water supplies, were substantial. The federal government responded with forty assistance programs administered by sixteen federal agencies. Assistance was provided primarily in the form of loans and grants to people, businesses and governments experiencing hardship caused by drought. The total cost of the program is estimated at $7-8 billion.Federal response to the mid-1970s drought was largely untimely, ineffective and poorly coordinated. Four recommendations are offered that, if implemented, would improve future drought assessment and response efforts: 1) reliable and timely informational products and dissemination plans; 2) improved impact assessment techniques, especially in the agricultural sector, for use by government to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures; 3) administratively centralized drought declaration procedures that are well publicized and consistently applied; and 4) standby assistance measures that encourage appropriate levels of risk management by producers and that are equitable, consistent and predictable. The development of a national drought plan that incorporates these four items is recommended. Atmospheric scientists have an important role to play in the collection and interpretation of near-real time weather data for use by government decision makers.

  16. First confirmation and characterization of target and non-target site resistance to glyphosate in Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri) from Mexico. (United States)

    Dominguez-Valenzuela, Jose Alfredo; Gherekhloo, Javid; Fernández-Moreno, Pablo Tomás; Cruz-Hipolito, Hugo Enrique; Alcántara-de la Cruz, Ricardo; Sánchez-González, Eduardo; De Prado, Rafael


    Following the introduction of glyphosate-resistant (GR)-cotton crops in Mexico, farmers have relied upon glyphosate as being the only herbicide for in-season weed control. Continuous use of glyphosate within the same year and over multiple successive years has resulted in the selection of glyphosate resistance in Palmer amaranth (Amarantus palmeri). Dose-response assays confirmed resistance in seven different accessions. The resistance ratio based on GR 50 values (50% growth reduction) varied between 12 and 83. At 1000 μM glyphosate, shikimic acid accumulation in the S-accession was 30- to 2-fold higher at compared to R-accessions. At 96 h after treatment, 35-44% and 61% of applied 14 C-glyphosate was taken up by leaves of plants from R- and S-accessions, respectively. At this time, a significantly higher proportion of the glyphosate absorbed remained in the treated leaf of R-plants (55-69%) compared to S-plants (36%). Glyphosate metabolism was low and did not differ between resistant and susceptible plants. Glyphosate was differentially metabolized to AMPA and glyoxylate in plants of R- and S-accessions, although it was low in both accessions (glyphosate collected from GR-cotton crops from Mexico. This is the first study demonstrating glyphosate-resistance in Palmer amaranth from Mexico. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Use of Drought Index and Crop Modelling for Drought Impacts Analysis on Maize (Zea mays L.) Yield Loss in Bandung District (United States)

    Kurniasih, E.; Impron; Perdinan


    Drought impacts on crop yield loss depend on drought magnitude and duration and on plant genotype at every plant growth stages when droughts occur. This research aims to assess the difference calculation results of 2 drought index methods and to study the maize yield loss variability impacted by drought magnitude and duration during maize growth stages in Bandung district, province of West Java, Indonesia. Droughts were quantified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1- to 3-month lags for the January1986-December 2015 period data. Maize yield responses to droughts were simulated by AquaCrop for the January 1986-May 2016 period of growing season. The analysis showed that the SPI and SPEI methods provided similar results in quantifying drought event. Droughts during maize reproductive stages caused the highest maize yield loss.

  18. Carboniferous paleogeographic, phytogeographic, and paleoclimatic reconstructions (United States)

    Rowley, D.B.; Raymond, A.; Parrish, Judith T.; Lottes, A.L.; Scotese, C.R.; Ziegler, A.M.


    Two revised paleogeographic reconstructions of the Visean and Westphalian C-D stages are presented based on recent paleomagnetic, phytogeographic, stratigraphic, and tectonic data. These data change the positions of some continental blocks, and allow the definition of several new ones. The most important modifications that have been incorporated in these reconstructions are: (1) a proposed isthmus linking North America and Siberia across the Bering Strait; and (2) the separation of China and Southeast Asia in six major blocks, including South China, North China, Shan Thai-Malaya, Indochina, Qangtang, and Tarim blocks. Evidence is presented that suggests that at least the South China, Shan Thai-Malaya, and Qangtang blocks were derived from the northern margin of Gondwana. Multivariate statistical analysis of phytogeographic data from the middle and late Paleozoic allow definition of a number of different phytogeographic units for four time intervals: (1) the Early Devonian, (2) Tournaisian-early Visean, (3) Visean, and (4) late Visean-early Namurian A. Pre-late Visean-early Namurian A floral assemblages from South China show affinities with northern Gondwana floras suggesting a southerly position and provides additional support for our reconstruction of South China against the northern margin of Gondwana. There is a marked decrease in the diversity of phytogeographic units in the Namurian and younger Carboniferous. This correlates closely with the time of assembly of most of Pangaea. The general pattern of Carboniferous phytogeographic units corresponds well with global distribution of continents shown on our paleogeographic reconstructions. In addition, we have constructed paleoclimatic maps for the two Carboniferous time intervals. These maps stress the distribution of rainfall, as this should be strongly correlated with the floras. There is marked change in the rainfall patterns between the Visean and Westphalian C-D. This change corresponds with the closing of

  19. Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc F P


    Over the past 50 years, human water use has more than doubled and affected streamflow over various regions of the world. However, it remains unclear to what degree human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought (the occurrence of anomalously low streamflow). Here, we quantify over the period 1960–2010 the impact of human water consumption on the intensity and frequency of hydrological drought worldwide. The results show that human water consumption substantially reduced local and downstream streamflow over Europe, North America and Asia, and subsequently intensified the magnitude of hydrological droughts by 10–500%, occurring during nation- and continent-wide drought events. Also, human water consumption alone increased global drought frequency by 27 (±6)%. The intensification of drought frequency is most severe over Asia (35 ± 7%), but also substantial over North America (25 ± 6%) and Europe (20 ± 5%). Importantly, the severe drought conditions are driven primarily by human water consumption over many parts of these regions. Irrigation is responsible for the intensification of hydrological droughts over the western and central US, southern Europe and Asia, whereas the impact of industrial and households’ consumption on the intensification is considerably larger over the eastern US and western and central Europe. Our findings reveal that human water consumption is one of the more important mechanisms intensifying hydrological drought, and is likely to remain as a major factor affecting drought intensity and frequency in the coming decades. (letter)

  20. Drought priming effects on alleviating later damages of heat and drought stress in different wheat cultivars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mendanha, Thayna; Hyldgaard, Benita; Ottosen, Carl-Otto

    The ongoing change is climate; in particular the increase of drought and heat waves episodes are a major challenge in the prospect of food safety. Under many field conditions, plants are usually exposed to mild intermittent stress episodes rather than a terminal stress event. Previous, but limited...... studies suggest that plants subjected to early stress (primed) can be more resistant to future stress exposure than those not stressed during seedling stage. In our experiment we aimed to test if repeated mild drought stresses could improve heat and drought tolerance during anthesis heat and drought...... stresses in wheat cultivars. Two wheat cultivars, Gladius and Paragon, were grown in a fully controlled gravimetric platform and subjected to either no stress (control) or two (P) drought cycles during seedling stage, at three and five complete developed leaves. Each cycle consisted of withholding water...

  1. Development of an Experimental African Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting System: A First Step towards a Global Drought Information System (United States)

    Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Sheffield, J.; Yuan, X.


    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are a significant source of social and economic damage. Internationally, organizations such as UNESCO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have recognized the need for drought monitoring, especially for the developing world where drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Having the capacity to monitor droughts in real-time, and to provide drought forecasts with sufficient warning will help developing countries and international programs move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. While observation-based assessments, such as those produced by the US Drought Monitor, are effective for monitoring in countries with extensive observation networks (of precipitation in particular), their utility is lessened in areas (e.g., Africa) where observing networks are sparse. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the real-time data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for the construction of a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. In this presentation we discuss the development of our multi-lingual experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see At the request of UNESCO, the ADM system has been installed at AGRHYMET, a regional climate and agricultural center in Niamey, Niger and at the ICPAC climate center in Nairobi, Kenya. The ADM system leverages off our U.S. drought monitoring and forecasting system ( that uses the NLDAS data to force the VIC land surface model (LSM) at 1/8th degree spatial resolution for the estimation of our soil moisture drought index (Sheffield et al., 2004). For the seasonal forecast of drought, CFSv2 climate

  2. Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region (United States)

    Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.


    The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

  3. Diversity of seedling responses to drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slot, M.; Poorter, L.


    Drought is an important seedling mortality agent in dry and moist tropical forests, and more severe and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. The effect of drought on leaf gas exchange and seedling survival was tested in a dry-down experiment with four tree species from dry and moist

  4. Evaluating Yield and Drought Stress Indices under End Season Drought Stress in Promising Genotypes of Barley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tajalli


    Full Text Available To study the effects of end season drought stress on yield, yield components and drought stress indices in barley, a split plot experiment arranged in randomized complete block design with three replications was conducted at the Agricultural Research Center of Birjand in 2008-2009 crop years. Drought stress, in 2 levels, consists of control (complete irrigation and stopping irrigation at the 50% of heading stage, and 20 promising genotypes of barley were the treatments of the experiment. Results revealed that stopping irrigation lead to declining of 14.64 and 8.12 percent of seed and forage yields against control condition, respectively. Using stress susceptibility index (SSI indicated that genotypes 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 and 15; using STI and GMP indices, genotypes 5, 8, 18 and 20 using MP, genotypes 8, 18 and 20, and TOL, genotypes 2, 3, 7, 9, and 10, were the most drought tolerant genotypes. Correlation between seed yield and stress evaluation indices showed that MP, GMP and STI are the best indices to be used in selection and introducing drought tolerant genotypes of barley. Considering all indices, and given that the best genotypes are those with high yield under normal condition and minimum yield reduction under drought stress, No. 18 and 20 could be introduced as the most tolerant barley genotypes to drought.

  5. Recent advances in the dissection of drought-stress regulatory networks and strategies for development of drought-tolerant transgenic rice plants. (United States)

    Todaka, Daisuke; Shinozaki, Kazuo; Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, Kazuko


    Advances have been made in the development of drought-tolerant transgenic plants, including cereals. Rice, one of the most important cereals, is considered to be a critical target for improving drought tolerance, as present-day rice cultivation requires large quantities of water and as drought-tolerant rice plants should be able to grow in small amounts of water. Numerous transgenic rice plants showing enhanced drought tolerance have been developed to date. Such genetically engineered plants have generally been developed using genes encoding proteins that control drought regulatory networks. These proteins include transcription factors, protein kinases, receptor-like kinases, enzymes related to osmoprotectant or plant hormone synthesis, and other regulatory or functional proteins. Of the drought-tolerant transgenic rice plants described in this review, approximately one-third show decreased plant height under non-stressed conditions or in response to abscisic acid treatment. In cereal crops, plant height is a very important agronomic trait directly affecting yield, although the improvement of lodging resistance should also be taken into consideration. Understanding the regulatory mechanisms of plant growth reduction under drought stress conditions holds promise for developing transgenic plants that produce high yields under drought stress conditions. Plant growth rates are reduced more rapidly than photosynthetic activity under drought conditions, implying that plants actively reduce growth in response to drought stress. In this review, we summarize studies on molecular regulatory networks involved in response to drought stress. In a separate section, we highlight progress in the development of transgenic drought-tolerant rice plants, with special attention paid to field trial investigations.

  6. Coping With Droughts (United States)

    Zaporozec, Alexander

    This book is a collection of selected papers from the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Droughts entitled “Drought Impact Control Technology,” held at the National Laboratory of Civil Engineering in Lisbon, Portugal, in June 1980. The editors of the book have chosen a nontraditional but successful approach to presenting the papers. Instead of including a verbatim proceedings of the institute, they assembled 21 papers presented by 14 of the institute's lecturers, reshaped and synthesized them, and supplemented them by five new papers that cover obvious gaps in topics. The result is enlightening reading and a more or less complete presentation of the subject. The edited material in the book was arranged around three central themes related to efforts needed to cope with or manage the droughts. In the process, the identity of individual contributors has been preserved.

  7. Drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania (United States)

    Zimmerman, Tammy M.; Risser, Dennis W.


    This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, to determine drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania. Because all or parts of southeastern Pennsylvania have been in drought-warning or drought-emergency status during 6 of the past 10 years from 1994 through 2004, this information should aid well owners, drillers, and water-resource managers in guiding appropriate well construction and sustainable use of Pennsylvania's water resources. 'Drought-sensitive' aquifer settings are defined for this study as areas unable to supply adequate quantities of water to wells during drought. Using information from previous investigations and a knowledge of the hydrogeology and topography of the study area, drought-sensitive aquifer settings in southeastern Pennsylvania were hypothesized as being associated with two factors - a water-table decline (WTD) index and topographic setting. The WTD index is an estimate of the theoretical water-table decline at the ground-water divide for a hypothetical aquifer with idealized geometry. The index shows the magnitude of ground-water decline after cessation of recharge is a function of (1) distance from stream to divide, (2) ground-water recharge rate, (3) transmissivity, (4) specific yield, and (5) duration of the drought. WTD indices were developed for 39 aquifers that were subsequently grouped into categories of high, moderate, and low WTD index. Drought-sensitive settings determined from the hypothesized factors were compared to locations of wells known to have been affected (gone dry, replaced, or deepened) during recent droughts. Information collected from well owners, drillers, and public agencies identified 2,016 wells affected by drought during 1998-2002. Most of the available data on the location of drought-affected wells in the study area were

  8. Ecological and meteorological drought monitoring in East Asia (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.; Chae, Y.


    This study aims to how well the ecological drought index can capture the drought status in the East Asia. We estimated the drought severe index (DSI), which uses the evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggested by Mu et al. (2013) to define the ecological drought. In addition, the meteorological drought index, which is standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are estimated and compared to the DSI. The satellite data by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) are used to analyze the DSI and the monthly precipitation and temperature data in the climate research unit (CRU) are applied to estimate the SPEI for 2000-2013 in the East Asia. We conducted the statistical analyses to investigate the drought characteristics of the ecological and meteorological drought indices (i.e. the DSI and SPEI, respectively) and then compared those characteristics drought indices depending on the drought status. We found the DSI did not well captured the drought status when the categories originally suggested by Mu et al. (2013) are applied to divide the drought status in the study area. Consequently, the modified categories for the DSI in this study is suggested and then applied to define the drought status. The modified categories in this study show the great improvement to capture the drought status in the East Asia even though the results cannot be acquired around Taklamakan desert due to the lack of the satellite data. These results illustrate the ecological drought index, such as the DSI, can be applied for the monitoring of the drought in the East Asia and then can give the detailed information of drought status because the satellite data have the relatively high spatial resolutions compared to the observations such as the CRU data. Reference Mu Q, Zhao M, Kimball JS, McDowell NG, Running SW (2013) A remotely sensed global

  9. Drought, Climate Change and the Canadian Prairies (United States)

    Stewart, R. E.


    The occurrence of drought is a ubiquitous feature of the global water cycle. Such an extreme does not necessarily lead to an overall change in the magnitude of the global water cycle but it of course affects the regional cycling of water. Droughts are recurring aspects of weather and climate extremes as are floods and tornadoes, but they differ substantially since they have long durations and lack easily identified onsets and terminations. Drought is a relatively common feature of the North American and Canadian climate system and all regions of the continent are affected from time-to-time. However, it tends to be most common and severe over the central regions of the continent. The Canadian Prairies are therefore prone to drought. Droughts in the Canadian Prairies are distinctive in North America. The large scale atmospheric circulations are influenced by blocking from intense orography to the west and long distances from all warm ocean-derived atmospheric water sources; growing season precipitation is generated by a highly complex combination of frontal and convective systems; seasonality is severe and characterized by a relatively long snow-covered and short growing seasons; local surface runoff is primarily produced by snowmelt water; there is substantial water storage potential in the poorly drained, post-glacial topography; and aquifers are overlain by impermeable glacial till, but there are also important permeable aquifers. One example of Prairie drought is the recent one that began in 1999 with cessation of its atmospheric component in 2004/2005 and many of its hydrological components in 2005. This event produced the worst drought for at least a hundred years in parts of the Canadian Prairies. Even in the dust bowl of the 1930s, no single year over the central Prairies were drier than in 2001. The drought affected agriculture, recreation, tourism, health, hydro-electricity, and forestry in the Prairies. Gross Domestic Product fell some 5.8 billion and

  10. Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems (United States)

    Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.


    Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than

  11. Screening Pakistani cotton for drought tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soomro, M.H.; Markhand, G.S.


    The drought is one of the biggest abiotic stresses for crop production in arid and semi-arid agriculture. Thus it is a challenge for plant scientists to screen and develop the drought tolerant cotton lines. In this study, 31 cotton genotypes/cultivars were evaluated under two irrigation regimes i. e., seven irrigations (Control) and two irrigations (Stress), using split plot design with four replications. The crop growth, yield and some physiological parameters were studied. There were high inter-varietal differences for all the parameters under control as well as drought stress. Although all the varieties for all parameters were significantly affected by drought but however, CRIS-9, MARVI, CRIS-134, CRIS-126, CRIS-337, CRIS-355 and CRIS-377 maintained highest performance for all the parameters studied under high drought conditions. (author)

  12. Rehab: Drought and famine in Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussein, A.M.


    A Special Report on the two Ethiopian drought-famine crises is reviewed. The Wollo drought occurred at the same time as the West African. Although drought also hit Sudan, and thus spread from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, Ethiopia's drought seems to have been unique, for its normal rainfall pattern is different from that of the Sahel; there are two rainy seasons, linked to a wind system more complex than that in West Africa. The limited data on this is summarized in S. Betheke's chapter of Rehap. This is an important study which helps impact an understanding of the revolution provoked by the Imperial regime's handling of the northern famine, and also allows useful comparisons of the Ethiopian and West African drought crisis.

  13. Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts (United States)

    Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas


    Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

  14. Proteomic studies of drought stress response in Fabaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Drought stress is a serious threat to crop production that influences plant growth and development and subsequently causes reduced quantity and quality of the yield. Plant stress induces changes in cell metabolism, which includes differential expression of proteins. Proteomics offer a powerful approach to analyse proteins involved in drought stress response of plants. Analyses of changes in protein abundance of legumes under drought stress are very important, as legumes play an important role in human and animal diet and are often exposed to drought. The presented results of proteomic studies of selected legumes enable better understanding of molecular mechanisms of drought stress response. The study of drought stress response of plants with proteomic approach may contribute to the development of potential drought-response markers and to the development of drought-tolerant cultivars of different legume crop species.

  15. A Global Drought Observatory for Emergency Response (United States)

    Vogt, Jürgen; de Jager, Alfred; Carrão, Hugo; Magni, Diego; Mazzeschi, Marco; Barbosa, Paulo


    Droughts are occurring on all continents and across all climates. While in developed countries they cause significant economic and environmental damages, in less developed countries they may cause major humanitarian catastrophes. The magnitude of the problem and the expected increase in drought frequency, extent and severity in many, often highly vulnerable regions of the world demand a change from the current reactive, crisis-management approach towards a more pro-active, risk management approach. Such approach needs adequate and timely information from global to local scales as well as adequate drought management plans. Drought information systems are important for continuous monitoring and forecasting of the situation in order to provide timely information on developing drought events and their potential impacts. Against this background, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing a Global Drought Observatory (GDO) for the European Commission's humanitarian services, providing up-to-date information on droughts world-wide and their potential impacts. Drought monitoring is achieved by a combination of meteorological and biophysical indicators, while the societal vulnerability to droughts is assessed through the targeted analysis of a series of social, economic and infrastructural indicators. The combination of the information on the occurrence and severity of a drought, on the assets at risk and on the societal vulnerability in the drought affected areas results in a likelihood of impact, which is expressed by a Likelihood of Drought Impact (LDI) indicator. The location, extent and magnitude of the LDI is then further analyzed against the number of people and land use/land cover types affected in order to provide the decision bodies with information on the potential humanitarian and economic bearings in the affected countries or regions. All information is presented through web-mapping interfaces based on OGC standards and customized reports can be drawn by the

  16. A European Drought Reference Database: Design and Online Implementation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stagge, J.H.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Kohn, I.; Stahl, K.; Loon, van A.


    This report presents the structure and status of the online European Drought Reference (EDR) database. This website provides detailed historical information regarding major historical European drought events. Each drought event is summarized using climatological drought indices, hydrological drought

  17. Tree responses to drought (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan


    With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

  18. Searching for the optimal drought index and timescale combination to detect drought: a case study from the lower Jinsha River basin, China (United States)

    Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Pan, Deng; Fischer, Luzia; Orlowsky, Boris; García-Hernández, Javier; Jordan, Frédéric; Haemmig, Christoph; Zhang, Fangwei; Xu, Jijun


    Drought indices based on precipitation are commonly used to identify and characterize droughts. Due to the general complexity of droughts, the comparison of index-identified events with droughts at different levels of the complete system, including soil humidity or river discharges, relies typically on model simulations of the latter, entailing potentially significant uncertainties. The present study explores the potential of using precipitation-based indices to reproduce observed droughts in the lower part of the Jinsha River basin (JRB), proposing an innovative approach for a catchment-wide drought detection and characterization. Two indicators, namely the Overall Drought Extension (ODE) and the Overall Drought Indicator (ODI), have been defined. These indicators aim at identifying and characterizing drought events on the basin scale, using results from four meteorological drought indices (standardized precipitation index, SPI; rainfall anomaly index, RAI; percent of normal precipitation, PN; deciles, DEC) calculated at different locations of the basin and for different timescales. Collected historical information on drought events is used to contrast results obtained with the indicators. This method has been successfully applied to the lower Jinsha River basin in China, a region prone to frequent and severe droughts. Historical drought events that occurred from 1960 to 2014 have been compiled and cataloged from different sources, in a challenging process. The analysis of the indicators shows a good agreement with the recorded historical drought events on the basin scale. It has been found that the timescale that best reproduces observed events across all the indices is the 6-month timescale.

  19. Structural adjustment and drought in Zambia. (United States)

    Mulwanda, M


    While drought is not uncommon in Zambia, the country is now facing the worst drought in history. The monetary and social costs will be enormous. Although it is too early to measure the economic and social costs of the drought on Zambia, it is obvious that the impact is catastrophic on a country whose economy is under pressure. The drought will affect the structural adjustment programme (SAP) unveiled by the new government which has embraced the market economy. The country has imported, and will continue to import, large quantities of maize and other foodstuffs, a situation likely to strain the balance of payments. Earlier targets with regard to export earnings, reductions in the budget deficit, and GDP growth as contained in the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) are no longer attainable due to the effects of the drought.

  20. Rainwater harvesting for drought disaster alleviation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widodo, B.; Prinzand, D.; Malik, A.H.


    Too little water and too much water can be as devastating as well. Drought usually does not show up instantly like flood, but it creeps slowly. Drought that is less popular than flood has impact more serious than flood. It is difficult to be identified when it comes and when it goes away. However, it is suddenly understood when water becomes scare, or no more water is available in wells, rivers and reservoirs. Managing flood and drought has to be at an integrated basis. Rainwater harvesting (RWH) combined with water conservation methods can be developed to alleviate drought disaster as well as flood disaster in the same time. RWH and water conservation must be an integral part of integrated water resources management. Preventing drought could be automatically reducing the extent of flood that means preventing people and the environment from the disasters. (author)

  1. Drought priming at vegetative growth stages improves tolerance to drought and heat stresses occurring during grain filling in spring wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Xiao; Vignjevic, Marija; Liu, Fulai


    Plants of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Vinjett) were exposed to moderate water deficit at the vegetative growth stages six-leaf and/or stem elongation to investigate drought priming effects on tolerance to drought and heat stress events occurring during the grain filling stage. Compared......Plants of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Vinjett) were exposed to moderate water deficit at the vegetative growth stages six-leaf and/or stem elongation to investigate drought priming effects on tolerance to drought and heat stress events occurring during the grain filling stage...... of abscisic acid in primed plants under drought stress could contribute to higher grain yield compared to the non-primed plants. Taken together, the results indicate that drought priming during vegetative stages improved tolerance to both drought and heat stress events occurring during grain filling in wheat....

  2. Spatiotemporal variation of long-term drought propensity through reliability-resilience-vulnerability based Drought Management Index (United States)

    Chanda, Kironmala; Maity, Rajib; Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar


    This paper characterizes the long-term, spatiotemporal variation of drought propensity through a newly proposed, namely Drought Management Index (DMI), and explores its predictability in order to assess the future drought propensity and adapt drought management policies for a location. The DMI was developed using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability (RRV) rationale commonly used in water resources systems analysis, under the assumption that depletion of soil moisture across a vertical soil column is equivalent to the operation of a water supply reservoir, and that drought should be managed not simply using a measure of system reliability, but should also take into account the readiness of the system to bounce back from drought to a normal state. Considering India as a test bed, 5 year long monthly gridded (0.5° Lat × 0.5° Lon) soil moisture data are used to compute the RRV at each grid location falling within the study domain. The Permanent Wilting Point (PWP) is used as the threshold, indicative of transition into water stress. The association between resilience and vulnerability is then characterized through their joint probability distribution ascertained using Plackett copula models for four broad soil types across India. The joint cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of resilience and vulnerability form the basis for estimating the DMI as a five-yearly time series at each grid location assessed. The status of DMI over the past 50 years indicate that drought propensity is consistently low toward northern and north eastern parts of India but higher in the western part of peninsular India. Based on the observed past behavior of DMI series on a climatological time scale, a DMI prediction model comprising deterministic and stochastic components is developed. The predictability of DMI for a lead time of 5 years is found to vary across India, with a Pearson correlation coefficient between observed and predicted DMI above 0.6 over most of the study area

  3. Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models (United States)

    Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.


    The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

  4. Genetic studies towards elucidation of drought tolerance of potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tessema, Biructa Bekele


    Drought is a major threat to agricultural production, which makes drought tolerance a prime target for breeding approaches towards crop improvement. Drought is a complex polygenic trait and poses a challenge for drought tolerance breeding. Improving crops for drought tolerance at least requires

  5. Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought (United States)

    William H. Schlesinger; Michael C. Dietze; Robert B. Jackson; Richard P. Phillips; Charles C. Rhoades; Lindsey E. Rustad; James M. Vose


    Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2O and CH4) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil....

  6. Identification and paleoclimatic significance of magnetite nanoparticles in soils (United States)

    Ahmed, Imad A. M.; Maher, Barbara A.


    In the world-famous sediments of the Chinese Loess Plateau, fossil soils alternate with windblown dust layers to record monsoonal variations over the last ˜3 My. The less-weathered, weakly magnetic dust layers reflect drier, colder glaciations. The fossil soils (paleosols) contain variable concentrations of nanoscale, strongly magnetic iron oxides, formed in situ during the wetter, warmer interglaciations. Mineralogical identification of the magnetic soil oxides is essential for deciphering these key paleoclimatic records. Formation of magnetite, a mixed Fe2+/Fe3+ ferrimagnet, has been linked to soil redox oscillations, and thence to paleorainfall. An opposite hypothesis states that magnetite can only form if the soil is water saturated for significant periods in order for Fe3+ to be reduced to Fe2+, and suggests instead the temperature-dependent formation of maghemite, an Fe3+-oxide, much of which ages subsequently into hematite, typically aluminum substituted. This latter, oxidizing pathway would have been temperature, but not rainfall dependent. Here, through structural fingerprinting and scanning transmission electron microscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy analysis, we prove that magnetite is the dominant soil-formed ferrite. Maghemite is present in lower concentrations, and shows no evidence of aluminum substitution, negating its proposed precursor role for the aluminum-substituted hematite prevalent in the paleosols. Magnetite dominance demonstrates that magnetite formation occurs in well-drained, generally oxidizing soils, and that soil wetting/drying oscillations drive the degree of soil magnetic enhancement. The magnetic variations of the Chinese Loess Plateau paleosols thus record changes in monsoonal rainfall, over timescales of millions of years.

  7. A Comprehensive Study of Agricultural Drought Resistance and Background Drought Levels in Five Main Grain-Producing Regions of China


    Lei Kang; Hongqi Zhang


    Drought control and resistance affect national food security. With this in mind, we studied five main grain-producing regions of China: Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the middle Yangtze River and Jianghuai region and Sichuan Basin. Using GIS technology, we evaluated the comprehensive agricultural drought situation based on major crops, the basic drought resistance by integrating multiple indicators and the comprehensive drought resistance against background agricultural ...

  8. SDI and Markov Chains for Regional Drought Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Feng Yeh


    Full Text Available In recent years, global climate change has altered precipitation patterns, causing uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation that gradually induces precipitation polarization phenomena. Taiwan is located in the subtropical climate zone, with distinct wet and dry seasons, which makes the polarization phenomenon more obvious; this has also led to a large difference between river flows during the wet and dry seasons, which is significantly influenced by precipitation, resulting in hydrological drought. Therefore, to effectively address the growing issue of water shortages, it is necessary to explore and assess the drought characteristics of river systems. In this study, the drought characteristics of northern Taiwan were studied using the streamflow drought index (SDI and Markov chains. Analysis results showed that the year 2002 was a turning point for drought severity in both the Lanyang River and Yilan River basins; the severity of rain events in the Lanyang River basin increased after 2002, and the severity of drought events in the Yilan River basin exhibited a gradual upward trend. In the study of drought severity, analysis results from periods of three months (November to January and six months (November to April have shown significant drought characteristics. In addition, analysis of drought occurrence probabilities using the method of Markov chains has shown that the occurrence probabilities of drought events are higher in the Lanyang River basin than in the Yilan River basin; particularly for extreme events, the occurrence probability of an extreme drought event is 20.6% during the dry season (November to April in the Lanyang River basin, and 3.4% in the Yilan River basin. This study shows that for analysis of drought/wet occurrence probabilities, the results obtained for the drought frequency and occurrence probability using short-term data with the method of Markov chains can be used to predict the long-term occurrence

  9. Intravitreal injection analysis at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute: evaluation of clinical indications for the treatment and incidence rates of endophthalmitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludimila L Cavalcante


    Full Text Available Ludimila L Cavalcante, Milena L Cavalcante, Timothy G Murray, Michael M Vigoda, Yolanda Piña, Christina L Decatur, R Prince Davis, Lisa C Olmos, Amy C Schefler, Michael B Parrott, Kyle J Alliman, Harry W Flynn, Andrew A MoshfeghiBascom Palmer Eye Institute, Department of Ophthalmology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USAObjective: To report the incidence of endophthalmitis, in addition to its clinical and microbiological aspects, after intravitreal injection of vascular-targeting agents.Methods: A retrospective review of a consecutive series of 10,142 intravitreal injections of vascular targeting agents (bevacizumab, ranibizumab, triamcinolone acetonide, and preservative-free triamcinolone acetonide between June 1, 2007 and January 31, 2010, performed by a single service (TGM at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute.Results: One case of clinically-suspected endophthalmitis was identified out of a total of 10,142 injections (0.009%, presenting within three days of injection of bevacizumab. The case was culture-positive for Staphylococcus epidermidis. Final visual acuity was 20/40 after pars plana vitrectomy surgery.Conclusions: In this series, the incidence of culture-positive endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of vascular agents in an outpatient setting was very low. We believe that following a standardized injection protocol, adherence to sterile techniques and proper patient follow-up are determining factors for low incidence rates.Keywords: endophthalmitis, intravitreal injections, vascular targeting agents 

  10. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability (United States)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.


    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  11. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, Van A.F.; Laaha, G.


    Impacts of a drought are generally dependent on the severity of the hydrological drought event, which can be expressed by streamflow drought duration or deficit volume. For prediction and the selection of drought sensitive regions, it is crucial to know how streamflow drought severity relates to

  12. 2003 hydrological drought - natural disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trninic, Dusan; Bosnjak, Tomislava


    An exceptionally dry and warm period from February to early October 2003 resulted in hydrological drought with attributes of a natural disaster in most of the Croatian regions. The paper presents hydrological analysis of the Sava River near Zupanja for the period 1945-2003 (N=59 years). In defining maximum annual volumes of isolated waves below the reference discharges, the following reference discharges were used:Q 30,95% = 202m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 95 % probability, Q 30,80% = 254m 3 s -1 - minimum mean 30-day discharge, 80 % probability, Q 95% = 297m 3 s -1 - (H = -17cm minimum navigation level = 95 % of water level duration from average duration curve). The analysis results have shown that the hydrological drought recorded during the current year belongs to the most thoroughly studied droughts in 59 years. For example, hydrological analysis of the reference discharge of 297m 3 s -1 has shown that this year drought comes second, immediately after the driest year 1946. However, this year hydrological drought hit the record duration of 103 days, unlike the one from 1946, which lasted 98 days. It is interesting that the hydrological droughts affect the Sava River usually in autumn and summer, rarely in winter, and it has never been recorded in spring (referring to the analysed 1945-2003 period). In conclusion, some recommendations are given for increase in low streamflows and on possible impacts of climate changes on these flows.(Author)

  13. The bioeconomic implications of various drought management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Drought management strategies; Herd structures; KwaZulu/Natal; Labour costs; Net present values; Simulation modelling; drought; drought management; management strategy; cattle; semi-arid; savanna; south africa; net present value; simulation model; domestic stock; economics. African Journal of Range ...

  14. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.


    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  15. A new multi-sensor integrated index for drought monitoring (United States)

    Jiao, W.; Wang, L.; Tian, C.


    Drought is perceived as one of the most expensive and least understood natural disasters. The remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices, which integrate multiple variables, could reflect the drought conditions more comprehensively than single drought indices. However, most of current remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices focus on agricultural drought (i.e., deficit in soil moisture), their application in monitoring meteorological drought (i.e., deficit in precipitation) was limited. More importantly, most of the remote-sensing-based integrated drought indices did not take into consideration of the spatially non-stationary nature of the related variables, so such indices may lose essential local details when integrating multiple variables. In this regard, we proposed a new mathematical framework for generating integrated drought index for meteorological drought monitoring. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and principal component analysis were used to composite Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based temperature condition index (TCI), the Vegetation Index based on the Universal Pattern Decomposition method (VIUPD) based vegetation condition index (VCI), tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) based Precipitation Condition Index (PCI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) based soil moisture condition index (SMCI). We called the new remote-sensing-based integrated drought index geographical-location-based integrated drought index (GLIDI). We examined the utility of the GLIDI for drought monitoring in various climate divisions across the continental United States (CONUS). GLIDI showed high correlations with in-situ drought indices and outperformed most other existing drought indices. The results also indicate that the performance of GLIDI is not affected by environmental factors such as land cover, precipitation, temperature and soil conditions. As such, the GLIDI has considerable potential for

  16. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts? (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; England, Matthew H.; McIntosh, Peter C.; Meyers, Gary A.; Pook, Michael J.; Risbey, James S.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.


    Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called ``Big Dry''. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the ``Big Dry'' and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the ``Big Dry'', its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

  17. Exceptional Drought and Unconventional Energy Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reid B. Stevens


    Full Text Available The hydraulic fracturing boom in Texas required massive water flows. Beginning in the summer of 2011, water became scarce as a prolonged heat wave and subsequent severe drought spread across the state. Oil and gas producers working in drought areas needed to purchase expensive local water or transport water from a non-drought county far from the drill site. In response to decreased water availability in drought areas, these producers completed fewer wells and completed wells that used less water. This decrease in well-level water use had a measurable effect on the amount of oil and gas produced by wells completed during exceptional conditions.

  18. Variability and trends in global drought (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.


    Monthly precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the CRUTS3.1 data set are used to compute monthly P minus PET (PMPE) for the land areas of the globe. The percent of the global land area with annual sums of PMPE less than zero are used as an index of global drought (%drought) for 1901 through 2009. Results indicate that for the past century %drought has not changed, even though global PET and temperature (T) have increased. Although annual global PET and T have increased, annual global P also has increased and has mitigated the effects of increased PET on %drought.

  19. Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Wenhua [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Now at Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Mishra, Ashok [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson SC USA; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hejazi, Mohamad [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Wang, Wei [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [The Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Deng, Zhiqun [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Demissisie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA USA; Wang, Hao [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing China


    Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

  20. Drought and Winter Drying (Pest Alert) (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    Drought and winter drying have periodically caused major damage to trees. Drought reduces the amount of water available in the soil. In the case of winter drying, the water may be in the soil, but freezing of the soil makes the water unavailable to the tree. In both cases, more water is lost through transpiration than is available to the plant. Symptoms of drought and...

  1. Drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quevauviller, P.; Lanen, Van Henny A.J.


    Drought is one of the most extreme weather-related natural hazards. It differs from other hydrometeorological extremes in several ways. It develops gradually and usually over large areas (transnational), mostly resulting from a prolonged period (from months to years) of below-normal


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Obringer


    Full Text Available This study aims to integrate environmental data for drought monitoring to reduce uncertainty in urban drought characterization as part of the smart city framework. Currently, drought monitoring in urban areas is a challenge. This is due, in part, to a lack of knowledge on the subject of urban droughts and urban drought vulnerability. A critical part to assessing urban drought and implementing the necessary policies is determining drought conditions. Often the timing and severity of the drought can leave cities to enforce water restrictions, so accuracy of this determination has socioeconomic implications. To determine drought conditions, we need to know the water balance over the urban landscape, of which evapotranspiration (ET is a key variable. However, ET data and models have high uncertainty when compared to other hydrological variables (i.e., precipitation. This is largely due to ill-defined empirical models for characterizing the urban surface resistance parameter (rs that is used in ET calculations. We propose a method to estimate rs values using a combination of the Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC method that calculates regional evapotranspiration data and an inverted version of the Penman-Monteith equation. We use this approach across the region surrounding Indianapolis, IN (USA from 2010-2014. We discuss the potential for this method to be integrated in to smart city framework to improve urban drought assessment.

  3. Enhancing drought tolerance in C(4) crops. (United States)

    Lopes, Marta S; Araus, Jose Luis; van Heerden, Philippus D R; Foyer, Christine H


    Adaptation to abiotic stresses is a quantitative trait controlled by many different genes. Enhancing the tolerance of crop plants to abiotic stresses such as drought has therefore proved to be somewhat elusive in terms of plant breeding. While many C(4) species have significant agronomic importance, most of the research effort on improving drought tolerance has focused on maize. Ideally, drought tolerance has to be achieved without penalties in yield potential. Possibilities for success in this regard are highlighted by studies on maize hybrids performed over the last 70 years that have demonstrated that yield potential and enhanced stress tolerance are associated traits. However, while our understanding of the molecular mechanisms that enable plants to tolerate drought has increased considerably in recent years, there have been relatively few applications of DNA marker technologies in practical C(4) breeding programmes for improved stress tolerance. Moreover, until recently, targeted approaches to drought tolerance have concentrated largely on shoot parameters, particularly those associated with photosynthesis and stay green phenotypes, rather than on root traits such as soil moisture capture for transpiration, root architecture, and improvement of effective use of water. These root traits are now increasingly considered as important targets for yield improvement in C(4) plants under drought stress. Similarly, the molecular mechanisms underpinning heterosis have considerable potential for exploitation in enhancing drought stress tolerance. While current evidence points to the crucial importance of root traits in drought tolerance in C(4) plants, shoot traits may also be important in maintaining high yields during drought.

  4. (SSR) markers for drought tolerance in maize

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Maize is moderately sensitive to drought. Drought affects virtually all aspects of maize growth in varying degrees at all stages, from germination to maturity. Tolerance to drought is genetically and physiologically complicated and inherited quantitatively. Application of molecular-marker aided selection technique for ...

  5. Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Tim Krannich


    Full Text Available Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

  6. Risk assessment of drought disaster in southern China (United States)

    Wang, Y.


    Abstract: Drought has become an increasing concern in southern China, but the drought risk has not been adequately studied. This study presents a method for the spatial assessment of drought risk in southern China using a conceptual framework that emphasizes the combined role of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.A drought hazard map was retrieved with a compound index of meteorological drought method in a GIS environment. Normally, a large variation in the disaster-inducing factor implies a high probability of economic/social losses caused by a drought disaster. The map indicated that areas with a higher risk of drought hazard were mainly distributed in mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The vulnerability indices were based on climate factors as well as land use, geomorphological types, soil properties, and drainage density. The water preserving capability of purple calcareous soil in the basins in Sichuan and mid-east Yunnan, and the lateritic red soil in northeastern Guangdong is relatively weak. The main geomorphological features in Guangxi and Guangdong are hills, which leads to a serious expectation of soil and water losses. Thus, the main areas with a high risk of drought vulnerability are mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The exposure indices were based on population density and agricultural production because population and agriculture experience the main impacts of a drought disaster. Higher exposure indices mean higher economic/social losses due to drought disasters. Areas with high exposure indices were mainly distributed in Guangdong and southern Guangxi.The overall risk was then calculated as the product of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The results indicated a higher risk of drought disaster in the basins in eastern Sichuan,, northeastern Yunnan, and northeastern Guangdong. The main factor influencing the risk of a drought disaster was the hazard, but the vulnerability and exposure also played important roles.

  7. Drought propagation and its relation with catchment biophysical characteristics (United States)

    Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Lara, A.; Garreaud, R. D.


    Droughts propagate in the hydrological cycle from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological droughts. To understand the drivers of this process is of paramount importance since the economic and societal impacts in water resources are directly related with hydrological droughts (and not with meteorological droughts, which have been most studied). This research analyses drought characteristics over a large region and identify its main exogenous (climate forcing) and endogenous (biophysical characteristics such as land cover type and topography) explanatory factors. The study region is Chile, which covers seven major climatic subtypes according to Köppen system, it has unique geographic characteristics, very sharp topography and a wide range of landscapes and vegetation conditions. Meteorological and hydrological droughts (deficit in precipitation and streamflow, respectively) are characterized by their durations and standardized deficit volumes using a variable threshold method, over 300 representative catchments (located between 27°S and 50°S). To quantify the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought, we propose a novel drought attenuation index (DAI), calculated as the ratio between the meteorological drought severity slope and the hydrological drought severity slope. DAI varies from zero (catchment that attenuates completely a meteorological drought) to one (the meteorological drought is fully propagated through the hydrological cycle). This novel index provides key (and comparable) information about drought propagation over a wide range of different catchments, which has been highlighted as a major research gap. Similar drought indicators across the wide range of catchments are then linked with catchment biophysical characteristics. A thorough compilation of land cover information (including the percentage of native forests, grass land, urban and industrial areas, glaciers, water bodies and no vegetated areas), catchment physical

  8. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies: application to regional drought processes in China (United States)

    Liu, Zhenchen; Lu, Guihua; He, Hai; Wu, Zhiyong; He, Jian


    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for water resource managers to develop and implement drought mitigation measures. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatial-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we developed a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies (SAs). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is first applied to drought-related SAs at 200 and 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and sea surface temperature (SST). Subsequently, SA-based predictors are built based on the spatial pattern of the first EOF modes. This drought prediction model is essentially the synchronous statistical relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric-oceanic SA-based predictors and SPI3 (3-month standardized precipitation index), calibrated using a simple stepwise regression method. Predictor computation is based on forecast atmospheric-oceanic products retrieved from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), indicating the lead time of the model depends on that of CFSv2. The model can make seamless drought predictions for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Model application to four recent severe regional drought processes in China indicates its good performance in predicting seasonal drought development, despite its weakness in predicting drought severity. Overall, the model can be a worthy reference for seasonal water resource management in China.

  9. Genotypic variation in growth and physiological response to drought stress and re-watering reveals the critical role of recovery in drought adaptation in maize seedlings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daoqian eChen


    Full Text Available Non-irrigated crops in temperate climates and irrigated crops in arid climates are subjected to continuous cycles of water stress and re-watering. Thus, fast and efficient recovery from water stress may be among the key determinants of plant drought adaptation. The present study was designed to comparatively analyze the roles of drought resistance and drought recovery in drought adaptation and to investigate the physiological basis of genotypic variation in drought adaptation in maize (Zea mays seedlings. As the seedlings behavior in growth associate with yield under drought, it could partly reflect the potential of drought adaptability. Growth and physiological responses to progressive drought stress and recovery were observed in seedlings of ten maize lines. The results showed that drought adaptability is closely related to drought recovery (r = 0.714**, but not to drought resistance (r = 0.332. Drought induced decreases in leaf water content, water potential, osmotic potential, gas exchange parameters, chlorophyll content, Fv/Fm and nitrogen content, and increased H2O2 accumulation and lipid peroxidation. After recovery, most of these physiological parameters rapidly returned to normal levels. The physiological responses varied between lines. Further correlation analysis indicated that the physiological bases of drought resistance and drought recovery are definitely different, and that maintaining higher chlorophyll content (r = 0.874*** and Fv/Fm (r = 0.626* under drought stress contributes to drought recovery. Our results suggest that both drought resistance and recovery are key determinants of plant drought adaptation, and that drought recovery may play a more important role than previously thought. In addition, leaf water potential, chlorophyll content and Fv/Fm could be used as efficient reference indicators in the selection of drought-adaptive genotypes.

  10. Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molen, M.K. van der; Dolman, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Eglin, T.; Gobron, N.; Law, B.E.; Meir, P.; Peters, P.; Philips, O.L.; Reichstein, M.; Chen, T.; Dekker, S.C.; Doubkova, M.; Friedl, M.A.; Jung, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Jeu, R.A.M. de; Kruijt, B.; Ohta, T.; Rebel, K.T.; Plummer, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Sitch, S.; Teuling, A.J.; Werf, G.R. van der; Wang, G.


    Drought as an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle interacts with the carbon cycle differently than the ‘gradual’ climate change. During drought plants respond physiologically and structurally to prevent excessive water loss according to species-specific water use strategies. This has

  11. Characterizing Drought Risk Management and Assessing the Robustness of Snowpack-based Drought Indicators in the Upper Colorado River Basin. (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Badger, A.; Lukas, J.; Dilling, L.; Page, R.


    Drought conditions over the past two decades have arisen during a time of increasing water demands in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The Basin's highly allocated and diverse water systems raise the question of how drought-based information, such as snowpack, streamflow, and reservoir conditions, can be used to inform drought risk management. Like most of the western U.S., snow-water equivalent (SWE) at key dates during the year (e.g., April 1) is routinely used in water resource planning because it is often the highest observed value during the season and it embodies stored water to be released, through melt, during critical periods later in the summer. This presentation will first focus on how water managers on Colorado's Western Slope (a) perceive drought-related risk, (b) use and access drought information, and (c) respond to drought. Preliminary findings will be presented from in-person interviews, document analysis, observations of planning meetings, and other interactions with seven water-management entities across the Western Slope. The second part of the presentation will focus on how the predictive power of snowpack-based drought indicators—identified as the most useful and reliable drought indicator by regional water stakeholders—are expected change in a warmer world, i.e. where expectations are for more rain versus snow, smaller snowpacks, and earlier snowmelt and peak runoff. We will present results from hydrologic simulations using climate projection to examine how a warming climate will affect the robustness of these snowpack-based drought indicators by mid-century.

  12. Evaluation of drought tolerance indices for the selection of Iranian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is an important factor limiting crop production in arid and semi-arid conditions. Drought indices which provide a measure of drought based on yield loss under drought condition in comparison to normal condition was used for screening drought-tolerant genotypes. This study was conducted to determine drought ...

  13. Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poulomi Ganguli


    New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

  14. Development of a Strategic Framework for Drought Management (United States)

    Kang, Jaewon; Kim, Sooyoung; Suh, Aesook; Cho, Younghyun


    A drought starts with lack of precipitation; as the deficit of precipitation is prolonged, the loss of water influences on the amount of soil water because of evapotranspiration. In addition, the decreased runoff of surface and underground water also reduces discharge in rivers and storage in reservoirs; these reductions then lead to the decline in the supply capability of water resources supply facilities. Therefore, individuals may experience a given drought differently depending on their circumstances. In an area with a metropolitan water supply network that draws water from a multipurpose dam, residents might not realize that a meteorological drought is present since they are provided with sufficient water. Similar situation might occur in farmlands for which an irrigation system supplies water from an agricultural reservoir. In Korea, several institutions adopt each drought indices in their roles. Since March 2016, the Ministry of Public Safety and Security, via inter-ministerial cooperation, has been classifying and announcing drought situations in each administrative district of Korea into three types, meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological droughts, with three levels such as 'caution,' 'serious,' or 'very serious.' Deriving the drought index considering storage facilities and other factors and expressing them in three categories are valid as methods. However, the current method that represent the drought situation in an administrative district as a whole should be improved to recognize the drought situation more realistically and to make appropriate strategic responses. This study designs and implements a pilot model of a framework that re-establishes zones for drought situation representation, taking water usage and water supply infrastructure into account based on land use maps. In addition, each resulting district is provided with statistical indices that can assist in the application of appropriate drought indices and the understanding of

  15. Drought Forecasting Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS, Drought Time Series and Climate Indices For Next Coming Year, (Case Study: Zahedan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Hosseinpour Niknam


    Full Text Available In this research in order to forecast drought for the next coming year in Zahedan, using previous Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI data and 19 other climate indices were used.  For this purpose Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS was applied to build the predicting model and SPI drought index for drought quantity.  At first calculating correlation approach for analysis between droughts and climate indices was used and the most suitable indices were selected. In the next stage drought prediction for period of 12 months was done. Different combinations among input variables in ANFIS models were entered. SPI drought index was the output of the model.  The results showed that just using time series like the previous year drought SPI index in forecasting the 12 month drought was effective. However among all climate indices that were used, Nino4 showed the most suitable results.

  16. Drought, nutrition and food security

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Drought associated with climate change may lead to food and water shortage. Greater vulnerability to infectious diseases. Population displacements and mass migrations with all ...

  17. Coping with drought risk: empirical analysis of farmers' drought adaption in the south-west Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duinen, Rianne; Filatova, Tatiana; Geurts, Petrus A.T.M.; van der Veen, A.


    Climate change projections show that periods of droughts are likely to increase, causing decreasing water availability, salinization, and consequently farm income loss in the south-west Netherlands. Adaptation is the key to decrease a farmer's drought vulnerability and to secure the agricultural

  18. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas


    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  19. Breeding sunflower for drought tolerance: genetic variability for drought torrance in sunflower (Helianthus Annuus L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, M.K.; Ilyas, M.; Rehman, O.U.


    Five inbred lines and their all possible crosses excluding reciprocals were evaluated for tolerance to drought and effect of drought adversely influenced the traits of leaf area, days to maturity, head diameter, 100-achene weight and achene yield per plant, whereas number of leaves per plant and plant height were comparatively less affected. Average performance of sunflower cross/hybrids was far more better than parental lines. Inbred lines GIMSUN-420x-431 and GIMSUN-498x-477 produced higher achene yield under drought conditions and showed less loses than other. Effect of drought on various growth stages showed that button (R1 stage) was the most critical as compared to 50% flowering (R5 stage) and seed formation (R6 stage) which reduced leaf area, head diameter, 100-achene weight and achene yield per plant by 40-59, 32-14 and 31-07 percent respectively. (author)

  20. Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring (United States)

    Limaye, Ashutosh; McNider, Richard; Moss, Donald; Alhamdan, Mohammad


    Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop

  1. Legacies from extreme drought increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extremes (United States)

    Smith, M. D.; Knapp, A.; Hoover, D. L.; Avolio, M. L.; Felton, A. J.; Wilcox, K. R.


    Climate extremes, such as drought, are increasing in frequency and intensity, and the ecological consequences of these extreme events can be substantial and widespread. Although there is still much to be learned about how ecosystems will respond to an intensification of drought, even less is known about the factors that determine post-drought recovery of ecosystem function. Such knowledge is particularly important because post-drought recovery periods can be protracted depending on the extent to which key plant populations, community structure and biogeochemical processes are affected. These drought legacies may alter ecosystem function for many years post-drought and may impact future sensitivity to climate extremes. We experimentally imposed two extreme growing season droughts in a central US grassland to assess the impacts of repeated droughts on ecosystem resistance (response) and resilience (recovery). We found that this grassland was not resistant to the first extreme drought due to reduced productivity and differential sensitivity of the co-dominant C4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) and C3 forb (Solidago canadensis) species. This differential sensitivity led to a reordering of species abundances within the plant community. Yet, despite this large shift in plant community composition, which persisted post-drought, the grassland was highly resilient post-drought, due to increased abundance of the dominant C4 grass. Because of this shift to increased C4 grass dominance, we expected that previously-droughted grassland would be more resistant to a second extreme drought. However, contrary to these expectations, previously droughted grassland was more sensitive to drought than grassland that had not experienced drought. Thus, our result suggest that legacies of drought (shift in community composition) may increase ecosystem sensitivity to future extreme events.

  2. Temperature profile and nutrients data collected using bottle casts from the NATHANIEL B. PALMER in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from 16 December 1995 to 13 January 1996 (NODC Accession 0000889) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from the NATHANIEL B. PALMER. Data were collected from...

  3. Development of a Coastal Drought Index Using Salinity Data (United States)

    Conrads, P. A.; Darby, L. S.


    The freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies along the coast is an important factor in the ecological and socio-economic dynamics of coastal communities. It influences community composition in freshwater and saltwater ecosystems, determines fisheries spawning habitat, and controls freshwater availability for municipal and industrial water intakes. These dynamics may be affected by coastal drought through changes in Vibrio bacteria impacts on shellfish harvesting and occurrence of wound infection, fish kills, harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, and beach closures. There are many definitions of drought, with most describing a decline in precipitation having negative impacts on water supply and agriculture. Four general types of drought are recognized: hydrological, agricultural, meteorological, and socio-economic. Indices have been developed for these drought types incorporating data such as rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, groundwater levels, and snow pack. These indices were developed for upland areas and may not be appropriate for characterizing drought in coastal areas. Because of the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems, a need exists to develop a coastal drought index. The availability of real-time and historical salinity datasets provides an opportunity to develop a salinity-based coastal drought index. The challenge of characterizing salinity dynamics in response to drought is excluding responses attributable to occasional saltwater intrusion events. Our approach to develop a coastal drought index modified the Standardized Precipitation Index and applied it to sites in South Carolina and Georgia, USA. Coastal drought indices characterizing 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and12-month drought conditions were developed. Evaluation of the coastal drought index indicates that it can be used for different estuary types, for comparison between estuaries, and as an index for wet conditions (high freshwater inflow) in addition to drought conditions.

  4. Assessing Impacts of National Scale Droughts on Cereal Production (United States)

    Udmale, P. D.; Ichikawa, Y.


    Till date, several drought indices have been developed and used to monitor local to regional scale droughts on various temporal scales. However, there are no generalized criteria to define a threshold to declare a national level drought using drought indices. EM-DAT (a global database on natural and technological disasters) lists disasters (including drought) from 1900 until the present confirming one of the following criteria: 10 or more people dead; 100 or more people affected; the declaration of a state of emergency; or a call for international assistance. This data is gathered from various organizations like United Nations Institutes, Governments, etc. and do not cover all disasters or have political limitations that could affect the numbers. These criteria are neither objective nor quantitative, and accordingly may cause uncertainties when the data is used for further investigation on disaster impacts. Here we present a methodology to define drought at a national scale and its impacts on national level crop production (mainly cereals). We define drought based on the percentage of cropland area affected by drought in a country during its seasonal rainfall. For this purpose meteorological definition of drought in combination with country's cropland area is proposed to prepare a drought inventory for major cereal producing countries (1902-2012). This drought inventory together with FAO's Crop data is used to identify the impacts of drought on a national level cereal production (and yield) using Superposed Epoch Analysis for the period 1961-2012.

  5. The 2009/2010 Caribbean drought: a case study. (United States)

    Peters, Everson J


    The impacts of drought in the Caribbean have not been as dramatic as in some other parts of world, but it is not exempt from the experiences of drought. As a result of the effects of a prolonged drought in 2009/2010, the agenda for the 21st Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) paid particular attention to the issue of drought. This paper reviews the management framework for responding to drought disasters in five CARICOM countries. The paper also reports on some of the effects of the 2009/2010 drought with particular reference to Grenada and the Grenadines. During the drought in these islands there were numerous bush fires with devastating effects on agriculture, severe water shortages that impacted on the tourism industry and other social effects. It is evident that there was inadequate preparation for the event. Greater planning and investment are therefore required to reduce future impacts. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  6. Identification of Hydrological Drought in Eastern China Using a Time-Dependent Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zou


    Full Text Available Long records (1960–2013 of monthly streamflow observations from 8 hydrological stations in the East Asian monsoon region are modeled using a nonstationarity framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS. Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarity of monthly streamflow series in different geographic regions and to select optimal distribution among five two-parameter distributions (Gamma, Lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull and Logistic. Based on the optimal nonstationarity distribution, a time-dependent Standardized Streamflow Index (denoted SSIvar that takes account of the possible nonstationarity in streamflow series is constructed and then employed to identify drought characteristics at different time scales (at a 3-month scale and a 12-month scale in the eight selected catchments during 1960–2013 for comparison. Results of GAMLSS models indicate that they are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the monthly streamflow series with distribution parameters that are a linear function of time. For 8 hydrological stations in different geographic regions, a noticeable difference is observed between the historical drought assessment of Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI and SSIvar, indicating that the nonstationarity could not be ignored in the hydrological drought analyses, especially for stations with change point and significant change trends. The constructed SSIvar is, to some extent, found to be more reliable and suitable for regional drought monitoring than traditional SSI in a changing environment, thereby providing a feasible alternative for drought forecasting and water resource management at different time scales.

  7. Anatomy of a local-scale drought: Application of assimilated remote sensing products, crop model, and statistical methods to an agricultural drought study (United States)

    Mishra, Ashok K.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Das, Narendra N.; Prakash Khedun, C.; Singh, Vijay P.; Sivakumar, Bellie; Hansen, James W.


    Drought is of global concern for society but it originates as a local problem. It has a significant impact on water quantity and quality and influences food, water, and energy security. The consequences of drought vary in space and time, from the local scale (e.g. county level) to regional scale (e.g. state or country level) to global scale. Within the regional scale, there are multiple socio-economic impacts (i.e., agriculture, drinking water supply, and stream health) occurring individually or in combination at local scales, either in clusters or scattered. Even though the application of aggregated drought information at the regional level has been useful in drought management, the latter can be further improved by evaluating the structure and evolution of a drought at the local scale. This study addresses a local-scale agricultural drought anatomy in Story County in Iowa, USA. This complex problem was evaluated using assimilated AMSR-E soil moisture and MODIS-LAI data into a crop model to generate surface and sub-surface drought indices to explore the anatomy of an agricultural drought. Quantification of moisture supply in the root zone remains a gray area in research community, this challenge can be partly overcome by incorporating assimilation of soil moisture and leaf area index into crop modeling framework for agricultural drought quantification, as it performs better in simulating crop yield. It was noted that the persistence of subsurface droughts is in general higher than surface droughts, which can potentially improve forecast accuracy. It was found that both surface and subsurface droughts have an impact on crop yields, albeit with different magnitudes, however, the total water available in the soil profile seemed to have a greater impact on the yield. Further, agricultural drought should not be treated equal for all crops, and it should be calculated based on the root zone depth rather than a fixed soil layer depth. We envisaged that the results of

  8. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Liu


    Full Text Available The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5 climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia. Less rural populations (−217.7 ± 79.2 million and −216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk

  9. The SPEIbase: a new gridded product for the analysis of drought variability and drought impacts (United States)

    Begueria-Portugues, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; López-Moreno, J. I.; Angulo-Martínez, M.; El Kenawy, A.


    Recently a new drought indicator, the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), has been proposed to quantify the drought condition over a given area. The SPEI considers not only precipitation but also evapotranspiration (PET) data on its calculation, allowing for a more complete approach to explore the effects of climate change on drought conditions. The SPEI can be calculated at several time scales to adapt to the characteristic times of response to drought of target natural and economic systems, allowing determining their resistance to drought. Following the formulation of the SPEI a global dataset, the SPEIbase, has been made available to the scientific community. The dataset covers the period 1901-2006 with a monthly frequency, and offers global coverage at a 0.5 degrees resolution. The dataset consists on the monthly values of the SPEI at the time scales from 1 to 48 months. A description of the data and metadata, and links to download the files, are provided at On this communication we will detail the methodology for computing the SPEI and the characteristics of the SPEIbase. A thorough discussion of the SPEI index, and some examples of use, will be provided in a companion comunication.

  10. The transcriptional regulatory network in the drought response and its crosstalk in abiotic stress responses including drought, cold, and heat


    Nakashima, Kazuo; Yamaguchi-Shinozaki, Kazuko; Shinozaki, Kazuo


    Drought negatively impacts plant growth and the productivity of crops around the world. Understanding the molecular mechanisms in the drought response is important for improvement of drought tolerance using molecular techniques. In plants, abscisic acid (ABA) is accumulated under osmotic stress conditions caused by drought, and has a key role in stress responses and tolerance. Comprehensive molecular analyses have shown that ABA regulates the expression of many genes under osmotic stress cond...

  11. Application of Dynamic naïve Bayesian classifier to comprehensive drought assessment (United States)

    Park, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Lee, J. H.; KIm, T. W.


    Drought monitoring has already been extensively studied due to the widespread impacts and complex causes of drought. The most important component of drought monitoring is to estimate the characteristics and extent of drought by quantitatively measuring the characteristics of drought. Drought assessment considering different aspects of the complicated drought condition and uncertainty of drought index is great significance in accurate drought monitoring. This study used the dynamic Naïve Bayesian Classifier (DNBC) which is an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), to model and classify drought by using various drought indices for integrated drought assessment. To provide a stable model for combined use of multiple drought indices, this study employed the DNBC to perform multi-index drought assessment by aggregating the effect of different type of drought and considering the inherent uncertainty. Drought classification was performed by the DNBC using several drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI)) that reflect meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought characteristics. Overall results showed that in comparison unidirectional (SPI, SDI, and NVSWI) or multivariate (Composite Drought Index, CDI) drought assessment, the proposed DNBC was able to synthetically classify of drought considering uncertainty. Model provided method for comprehensive drought assessment with combined use of different drought indices.

  12. Defining Drought Characteristics for Natural Resource Management (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Senay, G. B.; McNeeley, S.; Morisette, J. T.


    In the north central region of the US, on-going drought studies are investigating factors determining how drought impacts various ecosystem services and challenge natural resource management decisions. The effort reported here stems from research sponsored by the USGS North Central Climate Science Center, to deal with ecosystem response to drought with the goal to see if there are indicators of drought emerging from the ecosystem interactions with various weather patterns, soil moisture dynamics, and the structural aspects of the ecosystem in question. The North Central domain covers a region from the headwaters of the Missouri River Basin to the northern Great Plains. Using spatial and temporal analysis of remote sensing products and mechanistic daily time-step ecosystem model simulations across the northern Great Plains and northern Rockies, analysis of recent drought conditions over the region will be provided. Drought characteristics will be analyzed related to resource management targets, such as water supply, landscape productivity, or habitat needs for key species. Analysis of ecosystem and landscape patterns of drought relative to net primary productivity, surface temperatures, soil moisture content, evaporation, transpiration, and water use efficiency from 2000 through 2014 will be analyzed for different drought and non-drought events. Comparisons between satellite-derived ET and NPP of different Great Plains ecosystems related to simulated ET and NPP will be presented. These comparisons provide indications of the role that soil moisture dynamics, groundwater recharge and rooting depth of different ecosystems have on determining the sensitivity to water stress due to seasonal warming and reduced precipitation across the region. In addition, indications that average annual rainfall levels over certain ecosystems may result in reduced production due to higher rates of water demand under the observed warmer temperatures and the prolonged warming in the spring


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. Perez


    Full Text Available A monitoring and forecasting sytem is developed to assess the extent and severity of agricultural droughts in the Philippines at various spacial scales and across different time periods. Using Earth observation satellite data, drought index, hazard and vulnerability maps are created. The drought index, called Standardized Vegetation-Temperature Ratio (SVTR, is derived using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and Land Surface Temperature (LST. SVTR is evaluated by correlating its values with existing agricultural drought index, particulary Evaporative Stress Index (ESI. Moreover, the performance of SVTR in detecting drought occurrences was assessed for the 2015-2016 drought event. This period is a strong El Niño year and a large portion of the country was affected by drought at varying degrees, making it a good case study for evaluating drought indices. Satellitederived SVTR was validated through several field visits and surveys across different major agricultural areas in the country, and was found to be 73% accurate. The drought hazard and vulnerability maps are produced by utilizing the evapotranspration product of MODIS, rainfall climatology from the Tropical Rainfall Microwave Mission (TRMM and ancillary data, including irrigation, water holding capacity and land use. Finally, we used statistical techniques to determine trends in NDVI and LST and generate a sixmonth forecast of drought index. Outputs of this study are being assessed by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA and the Department of Agriculture Bureau of Soils and Water Management (DABSWM for future integration in their operations.

  14. Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe (United States)

    Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia


    Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

  15. Phenotypic Approaches to Drought in Cassava: Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel eOkogbenin


    Full Text Available Cassava is an important crop in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. Cassava can be produced adequately in drought conditions making it the ideal food security crop in marginal environments. Although cassava can tolerate drought stress, it can be genetically improved to enhance productivity in such environments. Drought adaptation studies in over three decades in cassava have identified relevant mechanisms which have been explored in conventional breeding. Drought is a quantitative trait and its multigenic nature makes it very challenging to effectively manipulate and combine genes in breeding for rapid genetic gain and selection process. Cassava has a long growth cycle of 12 - 18 months which invariably contributes to a long breeding scheme for the crop. Modern breeding using advances in genomics and improved genotyping, is facilitating the dissection and genetic analysis of complex traits including drought tolerance, thus helping to better elucidate and understand the genetic basis of such traits. A beneficial goal of new innovative breeding strategies is to shorten the breeding cycle using minimized, efficient or fast phenotyping protocols. While high throughput genotyping have been achieved, this is rarely the case for phenotyping for drought adaptation. Some of the storage root phenotyping in cassava are often done very late in the evaluation cycle making selection process very slow. This paper highlights some modified traits suitable for early-growth phase phenotyping that may be used to reduce drought phenotyping cycle in cassava. Such modified traits can significantly complement the high throughput genotyping procedures to fast track breeding of improved drought tolerant varieties. The need for metabolite profiling, improved phenomics to take advantage of next generation sequencing technologies and high throughput phenotyping are basic steps for future direction to improve genetic gain and maximize speed for drought tolerance

  16. Effects of drought on avian community structure (United States)

    Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Brian D. Wardlow; Volker C. Radeloff


    Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioural traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most...

  17. Is drought helping or killing dengue? Investigation of spatiotemporal relationship between dengue fever and drought (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung


    Dengue Fever is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted between human and mosquitos in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Previous studies have found significant relationship between the epidemic of dengue cases and climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation. Besides, the natural phenomena (e.g., drought) are considered that significantly drop the number of dengue cases by killing vector's breeding environment. However, in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, there are evidences that the temporal pattern of dengue is correlated to drought events. Kaohsiung City experienced two main dengue outbreaks in 2002 and 2014 that both years were confirmed with serious drought. Especially in 2014, Kaohsiung City was suffered from extremely dengue outbreak in 2014 that reported the highest number of dengue cases in the history. This study constructs the spatiotemporal model of dengue incidences and index of drought events (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) based on the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Other meteorological measures are also included in the analysis.

  18. Drought and submergence tolerance in plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Hewei; Zhou, Yufan; Oksenberg, Nir; Ronald, Pamela


    The invention provides methods of genetically modified plants to increase tolerance to drought and/or submergence. The invention additionally provides plants having increased drought and/or submergence tolerance engineered using such methods.

  19. Identification of the influencing factors on groundwater drought in Bangladesh (United States)

    Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Huysmans, Marijke


    Groundwater drought is a specific type of drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of response different climatic and manmade factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in a drought prone region in Bangladesh to understand the forcing mechanisms. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. The influence of land use patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land use. The result shows that drought intensity is more severe during the dry season (November to April) compared to the rainy season (May to October). The evapotranspiration and rainfall deficit has a significant effect on meteorological drought which has a direct relation with groundwater drought. Urbanization results in a decrease of groundwater recharge which increases groundwater drought severity. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation and recurrent meteorological droughts are the main causes of groundwater drought in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management. More detailed studies on climate change and land use change effects on groundwater drought are recommended. Keywords: Groundwater drought, SPI & RDI, Spatially distributed groundwater recharge, Irrigation, Bangladesh

  20. Drought-induced legacy effects in wood growth across the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. are mediated by site climate, tree age, and drought sensitivity (United States)

    Kannenberg, S.; Maxwell, J. T.; Pederson, N.; D'Orangeville, L.; Phillips, R.


    While it is widely known that drought reduces carbon (C) uptake in temperate forests, tree growth can also remain stagnant post-drought despite favorable climatic conditions. While such "legacy effects" are well established, the degree to which these effects depend on species identity or variability in site conditions is poorly quantified. We sought to uncover how site, species, climate, and tree age interact to affect the presence and magnitude of legacy effects in temperate trees following drought. To do this, we assembled dendrochronological records of 18 common species across 94 sites in Eastern and Midwestern U.S. forests and quantified drought-induced changes in wood growth in the year of the drought (hereafter "drought sensitivity") and the years after the drought (i.e., legacy effects). We predicted that species particularly prone to hydraulic damage (e.g., oaks) would have the least drought sensitivity yet experience larger legacy effects, and that this effect would be exacerbated at arid sites. Across all species and sites, wood growth was reduced by 14% in the year of the drought and by 7% post-drought. Surprisingly, legacy effects were smaller for oak species and larger across species known to be more drought sensitive (e.g. tulip poplar, maple, birch). As a result, we observed a positive relationship between a species' drought sensitivity and that species' legacy effect. These legacy effects were similar in size across a range of drought severities. Surprisingly, legacy effects were smaller in more arid sites - contrary to previous investigations in dryland ecosystems - perhaps indicating the role of adaptation in mediating a tree's recovery from drought. In addition, many species actually decreased the size of their legacy effects as they aged, despite no change in drought responses. Our results run contrary to our predictions, as species with the greatest drought sensitivity had the least ability to recover, and that younger mesic forests- not arid

  1. Spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the tropical Paraiba do Sul River Basin and responses to the Mega Drought in 2014-2016 (United States)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Metzke, Daniel; Ribbe, Lars


    The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (56.000 km2) supplies water to the Brazilian states Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Their large metropolitan areas were strongly affected by a Mega drought during the years 2014 and 2015 with severe implications for domestic water supply, the hydropower sector as well as for rural agricultural downstream regions. Longer drought periods are expected to become more frequent in the future. However, drought characteristics, low flow hydrology and the reasons for the recurrent water scarcity in this water abundant tropical region are still poorly understood. In order to separate the impact of human abstractions from hydro-climatic and catchment storage related hydrological drought propagation, we assessed the spatio-temporal distribution of drought severity and duration establishing relationships between SPI, SRI and discharge threshold drought anomalies for all subcatchments of the PdS based on a comprehensive hydro-meteorological data set of the Brazilian National Water Agency ANA. The water allocation model "Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)" was established on a monthly basis for the entire Paraiba do Sul river basin incorporating human modifications of the hydrological system as major (hydropower) reservoirs and their operational rules, water diversions and major abstractions. It simulates reasonable discharges and reservoir levels comparable to the observed values. To evaluate the role of climate variability and drought responses for hydrological drought events, scenarios were developed to simulate discharge and reservoir level the impact of 1. Varying meteorological drought frequencies and durations and 2. Implementing operational rules as a response to drought. Uncertainties related to the drought assessment, modelling, parameter and input data were assessed. The outcome of this study for the first time provides an overview on the heterogeneous spatio-temporal drought characteristics of the Paraiba do Sul river basin and

  2. Physical, Chemical, and Biological CTD and Bottle data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER in Eastern Tropical South Pacific Ocean near Peru/Chile from 2013-06-24 to 2013-07-22 (NCEI Accession 0128141) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report contains data from R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP 1305 to the eastern tropical south pacific oxygen deficient zone. The objective of the cruise was...

  3. Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data...

  4. Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought. (United States)

    Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.


    The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management

  5. The potential of SMAP soil moisture data for analyzing droughts (United States)

    Rajasekaran, E.; Das, N. N.; Entekhabi, D.; Yueh, S. H.


    Identification of the onset and the end of droughts are important for socioeconomic planning. Different datasets and tools are either available or being generated for drought analysis to recognize the status of drought. The aim of this study is to understand the potential of the SMAP soil moisture (SM) data for identification of onset, persistence and withdrawal of droughts over the Contiguous United States. We are using the SMAP-passive level 3 soil moisture observations and the United States Drought Monitor ( data for understanding the relation between change in SM and drought severity. The daily observed SM data are temporally averaged to match the weekly drought monitor data and subsequently the weekly, monthly, 3 monthly and 6 monthly change in SM and drought severity were estimated. The analyses suggested that the change in SM and drought severity are correlated especially over the mid-west and west coast of USA at monthly and longer time scales. The spatial pattern of the SM change maps clearly indicated the regions that are moving between different levels of drought severity. Further, the time series of effective saturation [Se =(θ-θr)/(θs-θr)] indicated the temporal dynamics of drought conditions over California which is recovering from a long-term drought. Additional analyses are being carried out to develop statistics between drought severity and soil moisture level.

  6. A hot future for European droughts (United States)

    Teuling, Adriaan J.


    Low soil moisture conditions can induce drought but also elevate temperatures. Detailed modelling of the drought-temperature link now shows that rising global temperature will bring drier soils and higher heatwave temperatures in Europe.

  7. Temporal Changes in Community Resilience to Drought Hazard (United States)

    Mihunov, V.


    The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized. While considerable research on the climatological aspect of droughts has been conducted, studies on the resilience of human communities to the effects of drought remain limited. Understanding how different communities respond to and recover from the drought hazard, i.e. their community resilience, should inform the development of better strategies to cope with the hazard. This research assesses community resilience to drought hazard in South-Central U.S. and captures the temporal changes of community resilience in the region facing the climate change. First, the study applies the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) framework using the existing drought incidence, crop damage, socio-economic and food-water-energy nexus variables, which allows to assign county-level resilience scores in the study region and derive variables contributing to the resilience. Second, it captures the temporal changes in community resilience by using the model extracted from the RIM study and socio-economic data from several consecutive time periods. The resilience measurement study should help understand the complex process underlying communities' response to the drought impacts. The results identify gaps in resilience planning and help the improvement of the community resilience to the droughts of increasing frequency and intensity.

  8. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada. (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; J Cheng, June; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth


    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.

  9. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada (United States)

    Yusa, Anna; Berry, Peter; Cheng, June J.; Ogden, Nicholas; Bonsal, Barrie; Stewart, Ronald; Waldick, Ruth


    Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health. PMID:26193300

  10. Groundwater potential for water supply during droughts in Korea (United States)

    Hyun, Y.; Cha, E.; Moon, H. J.


    Droughts have been receiving much attention in Korea because severe droughts occurred in recent years, causing significant social, economic and environmental damages in some regions. Residents in agricultural area, most of all, were most damaged by droughts with lack of available water supplies to meet crop water demands. In order to mitigate drought damages, we present a strategy to keep from agricultural droughts by using groundwater to meet water supply as a potential water resource in agricultural areas. In this study, we analyze drought severity and the groundwater potential to mitigate social and environmental damages caused by droughts in Korea. We evaluate drought severity by analyzing spatial and temporal meteorological and hydrological data such as rainfall, water supply and demand. For drought severity, we use effective drought index along with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index(SRI). Water deficit during the drought period is also quantified to consider social and environmental impact of droughts. Then we assess the feasibility of using groundwater as a potential source for groundwater impact mitigation. Results show that the agricultural areas are more vulnerable to droughts and use of groundwater as an emergency water resource is feasible in some regions. For a case study, we select Jeong-Sun area located in Kangwon providence having well-developed Karst aquifers and surrounded by mountains. For Jeong-Sun area, we quantify groundwater potential use, design the method of water supply by using groundwater, and assess its economic benefit. Results show that water supply system with groundwater abstraction can be a good strategy when droughts are severe for an emergency water supply in Jeong-Sun area, and groundwater can also be used not only for a dry season water supply resource, but for everyday water supply system. This case study results can further be applicable to some regions with no sufficient water

  11. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. (United States)

    von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard


    To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought-conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989-2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups' livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.

  12. Influence of soil drought stress on photosynthesis, carbohydrates ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Aug 16, 2010 ... and the ability of plant to adapt to drought stress. (Bulbotko, 1973; Atkinson et ... drought stress. In general, little is known about the effects of soil drought ..... fluorescence, water relations, and leaf abscisic acid. Plant Physiol.

  13. Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yuan


    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961–2010 of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118–262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21–99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982–2010 hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11–26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly

  14. How climate seasonality modifies drought duration and deficit

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loon, van A.F.; Tijdeman, E.; Wanders, N.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.


    Drought propagation through the terrestrial hydrological cycle is associated with a change in drought characteristics (duration and deficit), moving from precipitation via soil moisture to discharge. Here we investigate climate controls on drought propagation with a modeling experiment in 1271

  15. The effect of reservoir networks on drought propagation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oel, van P.R.; Martins, E.S.P.R.; Costa, A.C.


    Human interventions in response to drought can both alleviate and enhance drought. Developments of infrastructure for freshwater storage, groundwater abstraction and irrigation have proved to be effective in overcoming meteorological and agricultural drought in many locations worldwide. At the same

  16. Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts ...

  17. Field Phenotyping of Soybean Roots for Drought Stress Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berhanu A. Fenta


    Full Text Available Root architecture was determined together with shoot parameters under well watered and drought conditions in the field in three soybean cultivars (A5409RG, Jackson and Prima 2000. Morphology parameters were used to classify the cultivars into different root phenotypes that could be important in conferring drought tolerance traits. A5409RG is a drought-sensitive cultivar with a shallow root phenotype and a root angle of <40°. In contrast, Jackson is a drought-escaping cultivar. It has a deep rooting phenotype with a root angle of >60°. Prima 2000 is an intermediate drought-tolerant cultivar with a root angle of 40°–60°. It has an intermediate root phenotype. Prima 2000 was the best performing cultivar under drought stress, having the greatest shoot biomass and grain yield under limited water availability. It had abundant root nodules even under drought conditions. A positive correlation was observed between nodule size, above-ground biomass and seed yield under well-watered and drought conditions. These findings demonstrate that root system phenotyping using markers that are easy-to-apply under field conditions can be used to determine genotypic differences in drought tolerance in soybean. The strong association between root and nodule parameters and whole plant productivity demonstrates the potential application of simple root phenotypic markers in screening for drought tolerance in soybean.

  18. An extended multivariate framework for drought monitoring in Mexico (United States)

    Real-Rangel, Roberto; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Breña-Naranjo, Agustín; Alcocer-Yamanaka, Víctor


    Around the world, monitoring natural hazards, such as droughts, represents a critical task in risk assessment and management plans. A reliable drought monitoring system allows to identify regions affected by these phenomena so that early response measures can be implemented. In Mexico, this activity is performed using Mexico's Drought Monitor, which is based on a similar methodology as the United States Drought Monitor and the North American Drought Monitor. The main feature of these monitoring systems is the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations that is ultimately validated by local experts. However, in Mexico in situ records of variables such as precipitation and streamflow are often scarce, or even null, in many regions of the country. Another issue that adds uncertainty in drought monitoring is the arbitrary weight given to each analyzed variable. This study aims at providing an operational framework for drought monitoring in Mexico, based on univariate and multivariate nonparametric standardized indexes proposed in recent studies. Furthermore, the framework has been extended by taking into account the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) for the drought severity assessment. The analyzed variables used for computing the drought indexes are mainly derived from remote sensing (MODIS) and land surface models datasets (NASA MERRA-2). A qualitative evaluation of the results shows that the indexes used are capable of adequately describes the intensity and spatial distribution of past drought documented events.

  19. Drought impacts on cereal yields in Iberia (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Russo, Ana; Montero, Irene


    In the present context of climate change, land degradation and desertification it becomes crucial to assess the impact of droughts to determine the environmental consequences of a potential change of climate. Large drought episodes in Iberian Peninsula have widespread ecological and environmental impacts, namely in vegetation dynamics, resulting in significant crop yield losses. During the hydrological years of 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 Iberia was affected by two extreme drought episodes (Garcia-Herrera et al., 2007; Trigo et al., 2013). This work aims to analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales using spatially distributed time series of drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature. We have used CRU TS3 dataset to compute SPEI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results will be analyzed in terms of the mechanisms that are responsible by these drought events and will also be used to assess the impact of droughts in crops. Accordingly an analysis is performed to evaluate the large-scale conditions required for a particular extreme anomaly of long-range transport of water vapor from the subtropics. We have used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Interim reanalyses, namely, the geopotential height fields, temperature, wind, divergence data and the specific humidity at all pressure levels and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and total column water vapor (TCWV) for the Euro-Atlantic sector (100°W to 50°E, 0°N-70°N) at full temporal (six hourly) and spatial (T255; interpolated to 0.75° regular horizontal grid) resolutions available to analyse the large-scale conditions associated with the drought onset. Our analysis revealed severe impacts on cereals crop productions and yield (namely wheat) for Portugal and

  20. Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring (United States)

    Bolten, John D.; Crow, Wade T.; Zhan, Xiwu; Jackson, Thomas J.; Reynolds,Curt


    Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

  1. An impact perspective on pan-European drought sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stahl, K.; Kohn, I.; Stefano, De L.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Rego, F.C.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Andreu, J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.


    In the past decades, Europe experienced several severe drought events with diverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The EU FP-7 project DROUGHT R&SPI has investigated past drought impacts across different European countries and geoclimatic regions based on different approaches:

  2. Selection for drought tolerance in two tropical maize populations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is a major factor limiting maize (Zea mays L.) yield in much of the world. The need to breed maize cultivars with improved drought tolerance is apparent. This study compared two maize populations, ZM601 and ZM607 for drought tolerance during flowering, the most drought-vulnerable period for the maize plant.

  3. Extreme drought decouples silicon and carbon geochemical linkages in lakes. (United States)

    Li, Tianyang; Li, Siyue; Bush, Richard T; Liang, Chuan


    Silicon and carbon geochemical linkages were usually regulated by chemical weathering and organism activity, but had not been investigated under the drought condition, and the magnitude and extent of drought effects remain poorly understood. We collected a comprehensive data set from a total of 13 sampling sites covering the main water body of the largest freshwater lake system in Australia, the Lower Lakes. Changes to water quality during drought (April 2008-September 2010) and post-drought (October 2010-October 2013) were compared to reveal the effects of drought on dissolved silica (DSi) and bicarbonate (HCO 3 - ) and other environmental factors, including sodium (Na + ), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), chlorophyll a (Chl-a), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and water levels. Among the key observations, concentrations of DSi and DIN were markedly lower in drought than in post-drought period while pH, EC and concentrations of HCO 3 - , Na + , Chl-a, TDS, TN, TP and the ratio TN:TP had inverse trends. Stoichiometric ratios of DSi:HCO 3 - , DSi:Na + and HCO 3 - :Na + were significantly lower in the drought period. DSi exhibited significantly negative relationships with HCO 3 - , and DSi:Na + was strongly correlated with HCO 3 - :Na + in both drought and post-drought periods. The backward stepwise regression analysis that could avoid multicollinearity suggested that DSi:HCO 3 - ratio in drought period had significant relationships with fewer variables when compared to the post-drought, and was better predictable using nutrient variables during post-drought. Our results highlight the drought effects on variations of water constituents and point to the decoupling of silicon and carbon geochemical linkages in the Lower Lakes under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi; hide


    The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture

  5. Faba bean drought responsive gene identification and validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megahed H. Ammar


    Full Text Available This study was carried out to identify drought-responsive genes in a drought tolerant faba bean variety (Hassawi 2 using a suppressive subtraction hybridization approach (SSH. A total of 913 differentially expressed clones were sequenced from a differential cDNA library that resulted in a total of 225 differentially expressed ESTs. The genes of mitochondrial and chloroplast origin were removed, and the remaining 137 EST sequences were submitted to the gene bank EST database (LIBEST_028448. A sequence analysis identified 35 potentially drought stress-related ESTs that regulate ion channels, kinases, and energy production and utilization and transcription factors. Quantitative PCR on Hassawi 2 genotype confirmed that more than 65% of selected drought-responsive genes were drought-related. Among these induced genes, the expression levels of eight highly up-regulated unigenes were further analyzed across 38 selected faba bean genotypes that differ in their drought tolerance levels. These unigenes included ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (rbcL gene, non-LTR retroelement reverse related, probable cyclic nucleotide-gated ion channel, polyubiquitin, potassium channel, calcium-dependent protein kinase and putative respiratory burst oxidase-like protein C and a novel unigene. The expression patterns of these unigenes were variable across 38 genotypes however, it was found to be very high in tolerant genotype. The up-regulation of these unigenes in majority of tolerant genotypes suggests their possible role in drought tolerance. The identification of possible drought responsive candidate genes in Vicia faba reported here is an important step toward the development of drought-tolerant genotypes that can cope with arid environments.

  6. Multivariate Drought Characterization in India for Monitoring and Prediction (United States)

    Sreekumaran Unnithan, P.; Mondal, A.


    Droughts are one of the most important natural hazards that affect the society significantly in terms of mortality and productivity. The metric that is most widely used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to monitor and predict the occurrence, spread, intensification and termination of drought is based on the univariate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). However, droughts may be caused by the influence and interaction of many variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, etc.), emphasizing the need for a multivariate approach for drought characterization. This study advocates and illustrates use of the recently proposed multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) in monitoring and prediction of drought and assessing its concerned risk in the Indian region. MSDI combines information from multiple sources: precipitation and soil moisture, and has been deemed to be a more reliable drought index. All-India monthly rainfall and soil moisture data sets are analysed for the period 1980 to 2014 to characterize historical droughts using both the univariate indices, the precipitation-based SPI and the standardized soil moisture index (SSI), as well as the multivariate MSDI using parametric and non-parametric approaches. We confirm that MSDI can capture droughts of 1986 and 1990 that aren't detected by using SPI alone. Moreover, in 1987, MSDI indicated a higher severity of drought when a deficiency in both soil moisture and precipitation was encountered. Further, this study also explores the use of MSDI for drought forecasts and assesses its performance vis-à-vis existing predictions from the IMD. Future research efforts will be directed towards formulating a more robust standardized drought indicator that can take into account socio-economic aspects that also play a key role for water-stressed regions such as India.

  7. Evaluation of the Performance of Multiple Drought Indices for Tunisia (United States)

    Geli, H. M. E.; Jedd, T.; Svoboda, M.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.


    The recent and frequent drought events in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) create an urgent need for scientists, stakeholders, and decision makers to improve the understanding of drought in order to mitigate its effects. It is well documented that drought is not caused by meteorological or hydrological conditions alone; social, economic, and political governance factors play a large part in whether the components in a water supply system are balanced. In the MENA region, for example, agricultural production can place a significant burden on water supply systems. Understanding the connection between drought and agricultural production is an important first step in developing a sound drought monitoring and mitigation system that links physical indicators with on-the-ground impacts. Drought affect crop yield, livestock health, and water resources availability, among others. A clear depiction of drought onset, duration and severity is essential to provide valuable information to adapt and mitigate drought impact. Therefore, it is important that to be able to connect and evaluate scientific drought data and informational products with societal impact data to more effectively initiate mitigation actions. This approach will further the development of drought maps that are tailored and responsive to immediate and specific societal needs for a region or country. Within the context of developing and evaluating drought impacts maps for the MENA region, this analysis investigates the use of different drought indices and indicators including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly, land surface temperature (LST), and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for their ability to characterize historic drought events in Tunisia. Evaluation of a "drought map" product is conducted using data at the county level including crop yield, precipitation, in-country interviews with drought monitoring experts and agricultural

  8. Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management (United States)

    AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid


    Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally

  9. Physiological and comparative proteomic analysis reveals different drought responses in roots and leaves of drought-tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Liu

    Full Text Available To determine the proteomic-level responses of drought tolerant wild wheat (Triticum boeoticum, physiological and comparative proteomic analyses were conducted using the roots and the leaves of control and short term drought-stressed plants. Drought stress was imposed by transferring hydroponically grown seedlings at the 3-leaf stage into 1/2 Hoagland solution containing 20% PEG-6000 for 48 h. Root and leaf samples were separately collected at 0 (control, 24, and 48 h of drought treatment for analysis. Physiological analysis indicated that abscisic acid (ABA level was greatly increased in the drought-treated plants, but the increase was greater and more rapid in the leaves than in the roots. The net photosynthetic rate of the wild wheat leaves was significantly decreased under short-term drought stress. The deleterious effects of drought on the studied traits mainly targeted photosynthesis. Comparative proteomic analysis identified 98 and 85 differently changed protein spots (DEPs (corresponding to 87 and 80 unique proteins, respectively in the leaves and the roots, respectively, with only 6 mutual unique proteins in the both organs. An impressive 86% of the DEPs were implicated in detoxification and defense, carbon metabolism, amino acid and nitrogen metabolism, proteins metabolism, chaperones, transcription and translation, photosynthesis, nucleotide metabolism, and signal transduction. Further analysis revealed some mutual and tissue-specific responses to short-term drought in the leaves and the roots. The differences of drought-response between the roots and the leaves mainly included that signal sensing and transduction-associated proteins were greatly up-regulated in the roots. Photosynthesis and carbon fixation ability were decreased in the leaves. Glycolysis was down-regulated but PPP pathway enhanced in the roots, resulting in occurrence of complex changes in energy metabolism and establishment of a new homeostasis. Protein metabolism

  10. Drought variability in six catchments in the UK (United States)

    Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard


    Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

  11. Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine (United States)

    Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.


    Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

  12. Drought definitions and processes: how do humans fit in? (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne; Van Lanen, Henny; Gleeson, Tom


    Drought is commonly defined as a temporary lack of water compared to normal conditions. In the traditional definition used in the natural sciences (climate science, hydrology, earth science) only natural drivers are included and the human effect on water resources is excluded. Drought impact studies, however, using observed crop yields, wildfire data, reservoir information, etc., can hardy make this division. The interdisciplinarity of drought asks for a broader definition that considers the interplay between the hazard, impacts and management. In flood research, human effects on the volume and timing of the flood event are traditionally taken into account and there is the awareness that human factors like channel modification, land surface changes and water supply engineering can both intensify and reduce flooding. Drought researchers can learn from the flooding community and try to elucidate the effects of human factors on drought duration and severity. This is not only a necessary step to answer relevant societal questions in the anthropocene, but also the IAHS Panta Rhei initiative urges hydrologists to include the connection with human systems. We propose a paradigm shift in the definition of drought, namely to expand it to include the effects of human action. Here, we will present a conceptual diagram that will do justice to the interdisciplinarity of drought. We will discuss the complex interconnected system of climate - hydrology - society - ecosystem and which processes in that system are most relevant to take into consideration when studying drought. The revised definition provides recognition and a common ground to researchers in all fields of research and is better aligned with drought impacts and with stakeholders' and policy maker's views on drought. We will also go into some of the pitfalls and challenges that come with applying this revised definition. For example, the natural and human-induced processes related to drought can have different scales

  13. Molecular markers for drought tolerance in bread wheat

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    May 22, 2013 ... Molecular markers for drought tolerance in bread wheat. Tharwat El Ameen. Department of Genetics, South Valley University, Qena, 83523, Egypt. Accepted 3 May, 2013. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers associated with drought tolerance was used in this study to characterize drought ...

  14. The complex influence of ENSO on droughts in Ecuador

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M.


    In this study, we analyzed the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Ecuador for a 48-year period (1965–2012). Droughts were quantified from 22 high-quality and homogenized time series of precipitation and air temperature by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. In addition, the propagation of two different ENSO indices (El Niño 3.4 and El Niño 1 + 2 indices) and other atmospheric circulation processes (e.g., vertical velocity) on different time-scales of drought severity were investigated. The results showed a very complex influence of ENSO on drought behavior across Ecuador, with two regional patterns in the evolution of droughts: (1) the Andean chain with no changes in drought severity, and (2) the Western plains with less severe and frequent droughts. We also detected that drought variability in the Andes mountains is explained by the El Niño 3.4 index [sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central Pacific], whereas the Western plains are much more driven by El Niño 1 + 2 index (SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific). Moreover, it was also observed that El Niño and La Niña phases enhance droughts in the Andes and Western plains regions, respectively. The results of this work could be crucial for predicting and monitoring drought variability and intensity in Ecuador. © 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

  15. Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Sharma, Ashish


    Both drought and aridity indicate imbalance in water availability. While drought is a natural temporal hazard, aridity is a constant climatic feature. This paper investigates the changes in drought characteristics across different aridity zones with and without consideration of potential evapotranspiration (PET), as a means to better assess drought in a warming climate. Two drought indexes are employed: (1) Standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is solely based on precipitation; and (2) Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), which, in addition to precipitation, takes PET into account. The two indexes are first employed to observed precipitation and PET data for the period 1960-2009 from the CRU (Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia) TS 3.1 database. The results indicate that although all the aridity zones experience both downward and upward drought trends, no significant trend is found over large parts of the zones. However, the agreement between SPI and RDI reduces from the hyper-arid zone on one extreme toward the humid zone on the other. In the three more humid zones (i.e. semi-arid, sub-humid, and humid), the indexes exhibit different trends, with RDI showing more decreasing trends (i.e. becoming drier). While SPI generally shows more drought prone areas than RDI for the pre-1998 period, the opposite is observed for the post-1998 period. Given the known changes to PET in observed records, and also expected increases as global warming intensifies, these results suggest that RDI will be consistently different to the SPI as global warming intensifies. This hypothesis is further tested for historic and future climate projections from the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia) Mk3.6 global climate model (GCM), with use of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). In this case, PET is calculated using FAO56-PM model for assessment of

  16. The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Laaha


    Full Text Available In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude, pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity

  17. Phenotyping common beans for adaptation to drought (United States)

    Beebe, Stephen E.; Rao, Idupulapati M.; Blair, Matthew W.; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge A.


    Common beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) originated in the New World and are the grain legume of greatest production for direct human consumption. Common bean production is subject to frequent droughts in highland Mexico, in the Pacific coast of Central America, in northeast Brazil, and in eastern and southern Africa from Ethiopia to South Africa. This article reviews efforts to improve common bean for drought tolerance, referring to genetic diversity for drought response, the physiology of drought tolerance mechanisms, and breeding strategies. Different races of common bean respond differently to drought, with race Durango of highland Mexico being a major source of genes. Sister species of P. vulgaris likewise have unique traits, especially P. acutifolius which is well adapted to dryland conditions. Diverse sources of tolerance may have different mechanisms of plant response, implying the need for different methods of phenotyping to recognize the relevant traits. Practical considerations of field management are discussed including: trial planning; water management; and field preparation. PMID:23507928

  18. Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts (United States)

    Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.


    Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

  19. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought


    von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard


    Understanding the conflict potential of drought is critical for dealing effectively with the societal implications of climate change. Using new georeferenced ethnicity and conflict data for Asia and Africa since 1989, we present an actor-oriented analysis of growing-season drought and conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Results from naive models common in previous research suggest that drought generally has little impact. However, context-sensitive models accounting for the groups’ leve...

  20. Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh. (United States)

    Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon


    Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing

  1. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano


    Full Text Available We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic may also affect on land degradation.

  2. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio


    We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

  3. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011)

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Cabello, Daniel; Tomá s-Burguera, Miquel; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Beguerí a, Santiago; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Kenawy, Ahmed


    We analyzed potential land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide using long time series of remote sensing images and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 1981 to 2011. The objectives of the study were to identify semiarid regions showing a marked decrease in potential vegetation activity, indicative of the occurrence of land degradation processes, and to assess the possible influence of the observed drought trends quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that the NDVI values recorded during the period of maximum vegetation activity (NDVImax) predominantly showed a positive evolution in the majority of the semiarid regions assessed, but NDVImax was highly correlated with drought variability, and the trends of drought events influenced trends in NDVImax at the global scale. The semiarid regions that showed most increase in NDVImax (the Sahel, northern Australia, South Africa) were characterized by a clear positive trend in the SPEI values, indicative of conditions of greater humidity and lesser drought conditions. While changes in drought severity may be an important driver of NDVI trends and land degradation processes in semiarid regions worldwide, drought did not apparently explain some of the observed changes in NDVImax. This reflects the complexity of vegetation activity processes in the world’s semiarid regions, and the difficulty of defining a universal response to drought in these regions, where a number of factors (natural and anthropogenic) may also affect on land degradation.

  4. The Invitational Drought Tournament: What is it and why is it a useful tool for drought preparedness and adaptation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harvey Hill


    Full Text Available Proactive drought preparedness is a challenge for a variety of physical, institutional, and social reasons. Significant progress has been made in monitoring and forecasting water deficits, both temporally and spatially. However, less progress has been made in translating this information into proactive decision-making frameworks to support drought preparedness. The Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT, a simulation adaptation framework developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, is a recent innovation that supports drought preparedness efforts. The IDT provides a mechanism for presenting physical science information to decision makers across a variety of educational levels and professional backgrounds, in a way that allows for peer-to-peer education and synthesis. Second, the game simulation environment allows players to integrate this information into economic, policy and institutional frameworks in a non-threatening manner. Third, it maintains realism by constraining players׳ risk management options via a budget, the physical realities of the drought presented, and the technical expertise of the ‘referees’. Post-game follow-up allows players to explore lessons learned and to identify topics that warrant further in-depth exploration of policy options and subsequent implementation. The game provides an interim step between recognition of the risk posed by drought hazards and the actual implementation of vulnerability-reduction actions. This allows for a broad discussion within a sports-themed process that provides room for reflection and a richer understanding of the issues that must be addressed to ensure drought preparedness actions are effective.

  5. Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Sanusi Shiru


    Full Text Available This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI. The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

  6. Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions (United States)

    Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia


    The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining

  7. Characterizing Drought Events from a Hydrological Model Ensemble (United States)

    Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannaford, Jamie; Tanguy, Maliko; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia


    Hydrological droughts are a slow onset natural hazard that can affect large areas. Within the United Kingdom there have been eight major drought events over the last 50 years, with several events acting at the continental scale, and covering the entire nation. Many of these events have lasted several years and had significant impacts on agriculture, the environment and the economy. Generally in the UK, due to a northwest-southeast gradient in rainfall and relief, as well as varying underlying geology, droughts tend to be most severe in the southeast, which can threaten water supplies to the capital in London. With the impacts of climate change likely to increase the severity and duration of drought events worldwide, it is crucial that we gain an understanding of the characteristics of some of the longer and more extreme droughts of the 19th and 20th centuries, so we may utilize this information in planning for the future. Hydrological models are essential both for reconstructing such events that predate streamflow records, and for use in drought forecasting. However, whilst the uncertainties involved in modelling hydrological extremes on the flooding end of the flow regime have been studied in depth over the past few decades, the uncertainties in simulating droughts and low flow events have not yet received such rigorous academic attention. The "Cascade of Uncertainty" approach has been applied to explore uncertainty and coherence across simulations of notable drought events from the past 50 years using the airGR family of daily lumped catchment models. Parameter uncertainty has been addressed using a Latin Hypercube sampled experiment of 500,000 parameter sets per model (GR4J, GR5J and GR6J), over more than 200 catchments across the UK. The best performing model parameterisations, determined using a multi-objective function approach, have then been taken forward for use in the assessment of the impact of model parameters and model structure on drought event

  8. Earthworms accumulate alanine in response to drought. (United States)

    Holmstrup, Martin; Slotsbo, Stine; Henriksen, Per G; Bayley, Mark


    Earthworms have ecologically significant functions in tropical and temperate ecosystems and it is therefore important to understand how these animals survive during drought. In order to explore the physiological responses to dry conditions, we simulated a natural drought incident in a laboratory trial exposing worms in slowly drying soil for about one month, and then analyzed the whole-body contents of free amino acids (FAAs). We investigated three species forming estivation chambers when soils dry out (Aporrectodea tuberculata, Aporrectodea icterica and Aporrectodea longa) and one species that does not estivate during drought (Lumbricus rubellus). Worms subjected to drought conditions (alanine that was significantly upregulated in all tested species. Alanine was the most important FAA reaching 250-650μmolg(-1) dry weight in dehydrated Aporrectodea species and 300μmolg(-1) dry weight in L. rubellus. Proline was only weakly upregulated in some species as were a few other FAAs. Species forming estivation chambers (Aporrectodea spp.) did not show a better ability to conserve body water than the non-estivating species (L. rubellus) at the same drought level. These results suggest that the accumulation of alanine is an important adaptive trait in drought tolerance of earthworms in general. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Potentials of molecular based breeding to enhance drought ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ability of plant to sustain itself in limited water conditions is crucial in the world of agriculture. To breed for drought tolerance in wheat, it is essential to clearly understand drought tolerant mechanisms. Conventional breeding is time consuming and labor intensive being inefficient with low heritability traits like drought ...

  10. Hydrological drought and wildfire in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taufik, Muh


    Drought is a recurrent hazard, which has happened throughout human history, and it is anticipated to become more severe in multiple regions across the world. Drought occurs in all climate regimes from humid to dry and from hot to cold. Drought is often viewed through its impact on environment and

  11. Transgenerational variations in DNA methylation induced by drought stress in two rice varieties with distinguished difference to drought resistance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguo Zheng

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental conditions have large impacts on plant growth and crop production. One of the crucial mechanisms that plants use in variable and stressful natural environments is gene expression modulation through epigenetic modification. In this study, two rice varieties with different drought resistance levels were cultivated under drought stress from tilling stage to seed filling stage for six successive generations. The variations in DNA methylation of the original generation (G0 and the sixth generation (G6 of these two varieties in normal condition (CK and under drought stress (DT at seedling stage were assessed by using Methylation Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism (MSAP method. The results revealed that drought stress had a cumulative effect on the DNA methylation pattern of both varieties, but these two varieties had different responses to drought stress in DNA methylation. The DNA methylation levels of II-32B (sensitive and Huhan-3 (resistant were around 39% and 32%, respectively. Genome-wide DNA methylation variations among generations or treatments accounted for around 13.1% of total MSAP loci in II-32B, but was only approximately 1.3% in Huhan-3. In II-32B, 27.6% of total differentially methylated loci (DML were directly induced by drought stress and 3.2% of total DML stably transmitted their changed DNA methylation status to the next generation. In Huhan-3, the numbers were 48.8% and 29.8%, respectively. Therefore, entrainment had greater effect on Huhan-3 than on II-32B. Sequence analysis revealed that the DML were widely distributed on all 12 rice chromosomes and that it mainly occurred on the gene's promoter and exon region. Some genes with DML respond to environmental stresses. The inheritance of epigenetic variations induced by drought stress may provide a new way to develop drought resistant rice varieties.

  12. Assessing the vegetation condition impacts of the 2011 drought across the U.S. southern Great Plains using the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) (United States)

    Tadesse, Tsegaye; Wardlow, Brian D.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Fuchs, Brian; Gutzmer, Denise


    The vegetation drought response index (VegDRI), which combines traditional climate- and satellite-based approaches for assessing vegetation conditions, offers new insights into assessing the impacts of drought from local to regional scales. In 2011, the U.S. southern Great Plains, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, was plagued by moderate to extreme drought that was intensified by an extended period of record-breaking heat. The 2011 drought presented an ideal case study to evaluate the performance of VegDRI in characterizing developing drought conditions. Assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns represented in the VegDRI maps showed that the severity and patterns of the drought across the region corresponded well to the record warm temperatures and much-below-normal precipitation reported by the National Climatic Data Center and the sectoral drought impacts documented by the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). VegDRI values and maps also showed the evolution of the drought signal before the Las Conchas Fire (the largest fire in New Mexico’s history). Reports in the DIR indicated that the 2011 drought had major adverse impacts on most rangeland and pastures in Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in total direct losses of more than $12 billion associated with crop, livestock, and timber production. These severe impacts on vegetation were depicted by the VegDRI at subcounty, state, and regional levels. This study indicates that the VegDRI maps can be used with traditional drought indicators and other in situ measures to help producers and government officials with various management decisions, such as justifying disaster assistance, assessing fire risk, and identifying locations to move livestock for grazing.

  13. Early twenty-first-century droughts during the warmest climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Kogan


    Full Text Available The first 13 years of the twenty-first century have begun with a series of widespread, long and intensive droughts around the world. Extreme and severe-to-extreme intensity droughts covered 2%–6% and 7%–16% of the world land, respectively, affecting environment, economies and humans. These droughts reduced agricultural production, leading to food shortages, human health deterioration, poverty, regional disturbances, population migration and death. This feature article is a travelogue of the twenty-first-century global and regional droughts during the warmest years of the past 100 years. These droughts were identified and monitored with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational space technology, called vegetation health (VH, which has the longest period of observation and provides good data quality. The VH method was used for assessment of vegetation condition or health, including drought early detection and monitoring. The VH method is based on operational satellites data estimating both land surface greenness (NDVI and thermal conditions. The twenty-first-century droughts in the USA, Russia, Australia and Horn of Africa were intensive, long, covered large areas and caused huge losses in agricultural production, which affected food security and led to food riots in some countries. This research also investigates drought dynamics presenting no definite conclusion about drought intensification or/and expansion during the time of the warmest globe.

  14. Statistical of the drought in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado Moreno, Gonzalo


    The drought is evaluated by means of a standardized index of precipitation, at the same time simple and direct. It has not been guided toward a specific type of drought, but rather it has been evaluated as a phenomenon caused exclusively by the rain deficiency

  15. Carbon Dynamics of Pinus palustris Ecosystems Following Drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Starr


    Full Text Available Drought can affect forest structure and function at various spatial and temporal scales. Forest response and recovery from drought may be a result of position within landscape. Longleaf pine forests in the United States have been observed to reduce their carbon sequestration capacity during drought. We collected eddy covariance data at the ends of an edaphic longleaf pine gradient (xeric and mesic sites over seven years; two years of normal rainfall were followed by 2.5 years of drought, then 2.5 years of normal or slightly above-average rainfall. Drought played a significant role in reducing the physiological capacity of the sites and was compounded when prescribed fire occurred during the same periods. The mesic site has a 40% greater basal area then the xeric site, which accounts for its larger sequestration capacity; however, both sites show the same range of variance in fluxes over the course of the study. Following drought, both sites became carbon sinks. However, the xeric site had a longer carry-over effect and never returned to pre-drought function. Although this study encompassed seven years, we argue that longer studies with greater spatial variance must be undertaken to develop a more comprehensive understanding of forest response to changing climate.

  16. Drought stress responses in soybean roots and nodules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Kunert


    Full Text Available Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.

  17. Drought Stress Responses in Soybean Roots and Nodules. (United States)

    Kunert, Karl J; Vorster, Barend J; Fenta, Berhanu A; Kibido, Tsholofelo; Dionisio, Giuseppe; Foyer, Christine H


    Drought is considered to be a major threat to soybean production worldwide and yet our current understanding of the effects of drought on soybean productively is largely based on studies on above-ground traits. Although the roots and root nodules are important sensors of drought, the responses of these crucial organs and their drought tolerance features remain poorly characterized. The symbiotic interaction between soybean and rhizobia facilitates atmospheric nitrogen fixation, a process that provides essential nitrogen to support plant growth and development. Symbiotic nitrogen fixation is important for sustainable agriculture, as it sustains plant growth on nitrogen-poor soils and limits fertilizer use for crop nitrogen nutrition. Recent developments have been made in our understanding of the drought impact on soybean root architecture and nodule traits, as well as underpinning transcriptome, proteome and also emerging metabolome information, with a view to improve the selection of more drought-tolerant soybean cultivars and rhizobia in the future. We conclude that the direct screening of root and nodule traits in the field as well as identification of genes, proteins and also metabolites involved in such traits will be essential in order to gain a better understanding of the regulation of root architecture, bacteroid development and lifespan in relation to drought tolerance in soybean.

  18. Evaluation of drought tolerance indices among some winter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of drought stress on seed yield of some winter rapeseed cultivars and to study relevant drought tolerance indices, along with identifying resistant cultivars to drought stress. Plant materials were sown in split plot arrangement based on a randomized complete blocks ...

  19. Phosphorous Application Improves Drought Tolerance of Phoebe zhennan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akash Tariq


    Full Text Available Phoebe zhennan (Gold Phoebe is a threatened tree species in China and a valuable and important source of wood and bioactive compounds used in medicine. Apart from anthropogenic disturbances, several biotic constraints currently restrict its growth and development. However, little attention has been given to building adaptive strategies for its conservation by examining its morphological and physio-biochemical responses to drought stress, and the role of fertilizers on these responses. A randomized experimental design was used to investigate the effects of two levels of irrigation (well-watered and drought-stressed and phosphorous (P fertilization treatment (with and without P to assess the morphological and physio-biochemical responses of P. zhennan seedlings to drought stress. In addition, we evaluated whether P application could mitigate the negative impacts of drought on plant growth and metabolism. Drought stress had a significant negative effect on the growth and metabolic processes of P. zhennan. Despite this, reduced leaf area, limited stomatal conductance, reduced transpiration rate, increased water use efficiency, enhanced antioxidant enzymes activities, and osmolytes accumulation suggested that the species has good adaptive strategies for tolerating drought stress. Application of P had a significant positive effect on root biomass, signifying its improved water extracting capacity from the soil. Moreover, P fertilization significantly increased leaf relative water content, net photosynthetic rate, and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII under drought stress conditions. This may be attributable to several factors, such as enhanced root biomass, decreased malondialdehyde content, and the up-regulation of chloroplast pigments, osmolytes, and nitrogenous compounds. However, P application had only a slight or negligible effect on the growth and metabolism of well-watered plants. In conclusion, P. zhennan has a strong capability for drought

  20. Drought impacts and resilience on crops via evapotranspiration estimations (United States)

    Timmermans, Joris; Asadollahi Dolatabad, Saeid


    Currently, the global needs for food and water is at a critical level. It has been estimated that 12.5 % of the global population suffers from malnutrition and 768 million people still do not have access to clean drinking water. This need is increasing because of population growth but also by climate change. Changes in precipitation patterns will result either in flooding or droughts. Consequently availability, usability and affordability of water is becoming challenge and efficient use of water and water management is becoming more important, particularly during severe drought events. Drought monitoring for agricultural purposes is very hard. While meteorological drought can accurately be monitored using precipitation only, estimating agricultural drought is more difficult. This is because agricultural drought is dependent on the meteorological drought, the impacts on the vegetation, and the resilience of the crops. As such not only precipitation estimates are required but also evapotranspiration at plant/plot scale. Evapotranspiration (ET) describes the amount of water evaporated from soil and vegetation. As 65% of precipitation is lost by ET, drought severity is highly linked with this variable. In drought research, the precise quantification of ET and its spatio-temporal variability is therefore essential. In this view, remote sensing based models to estimate ET, such as SEBAL and SEBS, are of high value. However the resolution of current evapotranspiration products are not good enough for monitoring the impact of the droughts on the specific crops. This limitation originates because plot scales are in general smaller than the resolution of the available satellite ET products. As such remote sensing estimates of evapotranspiration are always a combination of different land surface types and cannot be used for plant health and drought resilience studies. The goal of this research is therefore to enable adequate resolutions of daily evapotranspiration estimates

  1. Drought Tip: Keeping Plants Alive under Drought or Water Restrictions


    Hartin, Janet; Oki, Loren; Fujino, Dave; Faber, Ben


    Plants that don't receive enough water eventually show signs of water stress. During a drought or under water restrictions aimed at water conservation, keeping plants alive can be particularly difficult.

  2. The Lifecycles of Drought: Informing Responses Across Timescales (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.


    Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness

  3. The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions (United States)

    Vogt, Jürgen; Sepulcre, Guadalupe; Magni, Diego; Valentini, Luana; Singleton, Andrew; Micale, Fabio; Barbosa, Paulo


    Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, developing combined indicators, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and testing options for medium-range probabilistic drought forecasting across Europe. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

  4. Heavy and frequent thinning promotes drought adaptation in Pinus sylvestris forests. (United States)

    Sohn, Julia A; Hartig, Florian; Kohler, Martin; Huss, Jürgen; Bauhus, Jürgen


    Droughts and their negative effects on forest ecosystems are projected to increase under climate change for many regions. It has been suggested that intensive thinning could reduce drought impacts on established forests in the short-term. Most previous studies on the effect of thinning on drought impacts, however, have been confined to single forest sites. It is therefore still unclear how general and persisting the benefits of thinning are. This study assesses the potential of thinning to increase drought tolerance of the wide spread Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in Central Europe. We hypothesized (1) that increasing thinning intensity benefits the maintenance of radial growth of crop trees during drought (resistance) and its recovery following drought, (2) that those benefits to growth decrease with time elapsed since the last thinning and with stand age, and (3) that they may depend on drought severity as well as water limitations in pre- and post-drought periods. To test these hypotheses, we assessed the effects of thinning regime, stand age, and drought severity on radial growth of 129 Scots pine trees during and after drought events in four long-term thinning experiments in Germany. We found that thinning improved the recovery of radial growth following drought and to a lesser extent the growth resistance during a drought event. Growth recovery following drought was highest after the first thinning intervention and in recently and heavily thinned stands. With time since the last thinning, however, this effect decreased and could even become negative when compared to unthinned stands. Further, thinning helped to avoid an age-related decline in growth resistance (and recovery) following drought. The recovery following drought, but not the resistance during drought, was related to water limitations in the drought period. This is the first study that analyzed drought-related radial growth in trees of one species across several stands of different age. The

  5. The relative influence of climate and catchment properties on hydrological drought (United States)

    Van Loon, Anne; Laaha, Gregor; Koffler, Daniel


    Studying hydrological drought (a below-normal water availability in groundwater, lakes and streams) is important to society and the ecosystem, but can also reveal interesting information about catchment functioning. This information can later be used for predicting drought in ungauged basins and to inform water management decisions. In this study, we used an extensive Austrian dataset of discharge measurements in clusters of catchments and combine this dataset with thematic information on climate and catchment properties. Our aim was to study the relative effects of climate and catchment characteristics on drought duration and deficit and on hydrological drought typology. Because the climate of the region is roughly uniform, our hypothesis was that the effect of differences of catchment properties would stand out. From time series of precipitation and discharge we identified droughts with the widely-used threshold level approach, defining a drought when a variable falls below a pre-defined threshold representing the regime. Drought characteristics that were analysed are drought duration and deficit. We also applied the typology of Van Loon & Van Lanen (2012). To explain differences in drought characteristics between catchments we did a correlation analysis with climate and catchment characteristics, based on Pearson correlation. We found very interesting patterns in the correlations of drought characteristics with climate and catchment properties: 1) Droughts with long duration (mean and maximum) and composite droughts are related to catchments with a high BFI (high baseflow) and a high percentage of shallow groundwater tables. 2) The deficit (mean and maximum) of both meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts is strongly related to catchment humidity, in this case quantified by average annual precipitation. 3) The hydrological drought types that are related to snow, i.e. cold snow season drought and snow melt drought, occur in catchments that are have a

  6. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.


    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  7. Use of climate information for drought risk management in Mexico (United States)

    Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.


    The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using

  8. On the use of Standardized Drought Indices under decadal climate variability: Critical assessment and drought policy implications (United States)

    Núñez, J.; Rivera, D.; Oyarzún, R.; Arumí, J. L.


    Since the recent High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in Geneva in 2013, a greater concern about the creation and adaptation of national drought monitoring systems is expected. Consequently, backed by international recommendations, the use of Standardized Drought Indices (SDI), such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as an operational basis of drought monitoring systems has been increasing in many parts of the world. Recommendations for the use of the SPI, and consequently, those indices that share its properties, do not take into account the limitations that this type of index can exhibit under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. These limitations are fundamentally related to the lack of consistency among the operational definition expressed by this type of index, the conceptual definition with which it is associated and the political definition it supports. Furthermore, the limitations found are not overcome by the recommendations for their application. This conclusion is supported by the long-term study of the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) in the arid north-central region of Chile, under the influence of multidecadal climate variability. The implications of the findings of the study are discussed with regard to their link to aspects of drought policy in the cases of Australia, the United States and Chile.

  9. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia


    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  10. Climate Change: Drought and Desertification in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awuor, V.O


    Drought is the failure of expected rain which leads to various effects in physical environment and human activities. Droughts are classified into three types namely; meteorological drought, agricultural and hydrological. Meteorological occurs when precipitation is below expectation, hydrological drought is experienced when water resources used for various activities reach levels when they become insufficient for those purposes. On the other hand agricultural drought occurs when when water supply for agriculture gets scarce and can defined as a moisture deficit that they cause un tolerable water stress during the growing season.In Kenya desertification is characterized by high temperatures that ranges between 14-31 degrees centigrade, with shallow soils of poor water holding capacity, the vegetation consists of variety of grasses, bushes and woodlands. Evergreen forest occurs along the major rivers such as Tana. Agricultural activities are usually concentrated in areas which are relatively wet like the highlands and flood plains with flood plains of permanent and seasonal seasonal rivers, surface storage areas and areas of seasonally -recharged shallow groundwater

  11. Impacts of drought on grape yields in Western Cape, South Africa (United States)

    Araujo, Julio A.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Crespo, Olivier


    Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on simple water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter, SPEI) to identify drought events and used a correlation analysis to identify the relationship between drought and grape yields. A crop simulation model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) was applied at the farm scale to investigate the role of irrigation in mitigating the impacts of drought on grape yield. The model gives a realistic simulation of grape yields. The Western Cape has experienced a series of severe droughts in the past few decades. The severe droughts occurred when a decrease in rainfall occurred simultaneously with an increase in temperature. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appears to be an important driver of drought severity in the Western Cape, because most of the severe droughts occurred in El Niño years. At the district scale, the correlation between drought index and grape yield is weak ( r≈-0.5), but at the farm scale, it is strong ( r≈-0.9). This suggests that many farmers are able to mitigate the impacts of drought on grape yields through irrigation management. At the farm scale, where the impact of drought on grape yields is high, poor yield years coincide with moderate or severe drought periods. The APSIM simulation, which gives a realistic simulation of grape yields at the farm scale, suggests that grape yields become more sensitive to spring and summer droughts in the absence of irrigation. Results of this study may guide decision-making on

  12. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  13. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I


    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  14. Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Li


    Full Text Available Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity due to global warming, and its impacts on vegetation are typically extensively evaluated with climatic drought indices, such as multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI. We analyzed the covariation between the SPEIs of various time scales and the anomalies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, from which the vegetation type-related optimal time scales were retrieved. The results indicated that the optimal time scales of needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland were between 10 and 12 months, which were considerably longer than the grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation ones (2 to 4 months. When the optimal vegetation type-related time scales were used, the SPEI could better reflect the vegetation’s responses to water conditions, with the correlation coefficients between SPEIs and NDVI anomalies increased by 5.88% to 28.4%. We investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of drought and quantified the different responses of vegetation growth to drought during the growing season (April–October. The results revealed that the frequency of drought has increased in the 21st century with the drying trend occurring in most of China. These results are useful for ecological assessments and adapting management steps to mitigate the impact of drought on vegetation. They are helpful to employ water resources more efficiently and reduce potential damage to human health caused by water shortages.

  15. Dissecting rice polyamine metabolism under controlled long-term drought stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phuc Thi Do

    Full Text Available A selection of 21 rice cultivars (Oryza sativa L. ssp. indica and japonica was characterized under moderate long-term drought stress by comprehensive physiological analyses and determination of the contents of polyamines and selected metabolites directly related to polyamine metabolism. To investigate the potential regulation of polyamine biosynthesis at the transcriptional level, the expression of 21 genes encoding enzymes involved in these pathways were analyzed by qRT-PCR. Analysis of the genomic loci revealed that 11 of these genes were located in drought-related QTL regions, in agreement with a proposed role of polyamine metabolism in rice drought tolerance. The cultivars differed widely in their drought tolerance and parameters such as biomass and photosynthetic quantum yield were significantly affected by drought treatment. Under optimal irrigation free putrescine was the predominant polyamine followed by free spermidine and spermine. When exposed to drought putrescine levels decreased markedly and spermine became predominant in all cultivars. There were no correlations between polyamine contents and drought tolerance. GC-MS analysis revealed drought-induced changes of the levels of ornithine/arginine (substrate, substrates of polyamine synthesis, proline, product of a competing pathway and GABA, a potential degradation product. Gene expression analysis indicated that ADC-dependent polyamine biosynthesis responded much more strongly to drought than the ODC-dependent pathway. Nevertheless the fold change in transcript abundance of ODC1 under drought stress was linearly correlated with the drought tolerance of the cultivars. Combining metabolite and gene expression data, we propose a model of the coordinate adjustment of polyamine biosynthesis for the accumulation of spermine under drought conditions.

  16. Drought coping strategies in cotton: increased crop per drop. (United States)

    Ullah, Abid; Sun, Heng; Yang, Xiyan; Zhang, Xianlong


    The growth and yield of many crops, including cotton, are affected by water deficit. Cotton has evolved drought specific as well as general morpho-physiological, biochemical and molecular responses to drought stress, which are discussed in this review. The key physiological responses against drought stress in cotton, including stomata closing, root development, cellular adaptations, photosynthesis, abscisic acid (ABA) and jasmonic acid (JA) production and reactive oxygen species (ROS) scavenging, have been identified by researchers. Drought stress induces the expression of stress-related transcription factors and genes, such as ROS scavenging, ABA or mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK) signalling genes, which activate various drought-related pathways to induce tolerance in the plant. It is crucial to elucidate and induce drought-tolerant traits via quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis, transgenic approaches and exogenous application of substances. The current review article highlights the natural as well as engineered drought tolerance strategies in cotton. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Temperature profile and nutrients data collected using bottle casts from the POLAR DUKE and NATHANIEL B. PALMER in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from 08 April 1997 to 05 May 1997 (NODC Accession 0000897) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from the POLAR DUKE and NATHANIEL B. PALMER. Data were...

  18. Temperature profile and nutrients data collected using bottle casts from the POLAR DUKE and NATHANIEL B. PALMER in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from 10 November 1997 to 12 December 1997 (NODC Accession 0000898) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Temperature profile and nutrients data were collected using bottle casts in the Ross Sea and Southern Oceans from the POLAR DUKE and NATHANIEL B. PALMER. Data were...

  19. Temperature, salinity, nutrients, and other data from CTD and bottle casts in the Southern Ocean (> 60 South) from the R/V NATHANIEL B. PALMER from 14 September 1994 to 12 October 1994 (NODC Accession 0000481) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes the primary ocean station data collected in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during cruise 9405 of the Nathaniel B. Palmer. The cruise...

  20. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  1. Simple Screening Methods for Drought and Heat Tolerance in Cowpea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B. B.


    Success in breeding for drought tolerance has not been as pronounced as for other traits. This is partly due to lack of simple, cheap and reliable screening methods to select drought tolerant plants/progenies from the segregating populations and partly due to complexity of factors involved in drought tolerance. Measuring drought tolerance through physiological parameters is expensive, time consuming and difficult to use for screening large numbers of lines and segregating populations. Since several factors/mechanisms (in shoot and root) operate independently and/or jointly to enable plants to cope with drought stress, drought tolerance appears as a complex trait. However, if these factors/mechanisms can be separated and studied individually, the components leading to drought tolerance will appear less complex and may be easy to manipulate by breeders. We have developed a simple box screening method for shoot drought tolerance in cowpea, which eliminates the effects of roots and permits non-destructive visual identification of shoot dehydration tolerance. We have also developed a 'root-box pin-board' method to study two dimensional root architecture of individual plants. Using these methods, we have identified two mechanisms of shoot drought tolerance in cowpea which are controlled by single dominant genes and major difference for root architecture among cowpea varieties. Combining deep and dense root system with shoot dehydration tolerance results into highly drought tolerant plants

  2. Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors (United States)

    Houborg, Rasmus; Rodell, Matthew; Lawrimore, Jay; Li, Bailing; Reichle, Rolf; Heim, Richard; Rosencrans, Matthew; Tinker, Rich; Famiglietti, James S.; Svoboda, Mark; hide


    NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations of the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including groundwater. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors by filling this observational gap. GRACE TWS data were assimilating into the Catchment Land Surface Model using an ensemble Kalman smoother enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into soil moisture and groundwater components. The Drought Monitors combine several short- and long-term drought indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence. To be consistent, we generated a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on a 60-year Catchment model simulation, which was used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into drought indicator percentiles. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of the GRACE assimilated moisture and indicator fields.

  3. Physiological and molecular responses of springtails exposed to phenanthrene and drought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmstrup, Martin; Slotsbo, Stine; Schmidt, Stine N.; Mayer, Philipp; Damgaard, Christian; Sørensen, Jesper G.


    Interaction between effects of hazardous chemicals in the environment and adverse climatic conditions is a problem that receives increased attention in the light of climate change. We studied interactive effects of phenanthrene and drought using a test system in which springtails (Folsomia candida Willem) were concurrently exposed to a sublethal phenanthrene level via passive dosing from silicone (chemical activity of 0.010), and sublethal drought from aqueous NaCl solutions (water activity of 0.988). Previous studies have shown that the combined effects of high levels of phenanthrene and drought, respectively, interact synergistically when using lethality as an end-point. Here, we hypothesized that phenanthrene interferes with physiological mechanisms involved in drought tolerance, and that drought influences detoxification of phenanthrene. However, this hypothesis was not supported by data since phenanthrene had no effect on drought-protective accumulation of myo-inositol, and normal water conserving mechanisms of F. candida were functioning despite the near-lethal concentrations of the toxicant. Further, detoxifying induction of cytochrome P 450 and glutathione-S-transferase was not impeded by drought. Both phenanthrene and drought induced transcription of heat shock protein (hsp70) and the combined effect of the two stressors on hsp70 transcription was additive, suggesting that the cellular stress and lethality imposed by these levels of phenanthrene and drought were also additive. -- Highlights: • New methods are needed for physiological studies of multiple stressor effects. • Springtails were exposed to combined stress from phenanthrene and drought. • Induction of CYP 450 and glutathione-S-transferase was not impeded by drought. • Drought-protective accumulation of myo-inositol was not challenged by phenanthrene. • The combined effect of phenanthrene and drought on hsp70 transcription was additive. -- Drought does not hamper detoxification of

  4. Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought (United States)

    Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.


    The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

  5. Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management (United States)

    Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.


    Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

  6. NAC transcription factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 enhances drought tolerance in tomato

    KAUST Repository

    Thirumalaikumar, Venkatesh P.


    Water deficit (drought stress) massively restricts plant growth and the yield of crops; reducing the deleterious effects of drought is therefore of high agricultural relevance. Drought triggers diverse cellular processes including the inhibition of photosynthesis, the accumulation of cell-damaging reactive oxygen species, and gene expression reprogramming, besides others. Transcription factors (TF) are central regulators of transcriptional reprogramming and expression of many TF genes is affected by drought, including members of the NAC family. Here, we identify the NAC factor JUNGBRUNNEN1 (JUB1) as a regulator of drought tolerance in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum). Expression of tomato JUB1 (SlJUB1) is enhanced by various abiotic stresses, including drought. Inhibiting SlJUB1 by virus-induced gene silencing drastically lowers drought tolerance concomitant with an increase in ion leakage, an elevation of hydrogen peroxide (H2 O2 ) levels, and a decrease of the expression of various drought-responsive genes. In contrast, overexpression of AtJUB1 from Arabidopsis thaliana increases drought tolerance in tomato, alongside with a higher relative leaf water content during drought and reduced H2 O2 levels. AtJUB1 was previously shown to stimulate expression of DREB2A, a TF involved in drought responses, and of the DELLA genes GAI and RGL1. We show here that SlJUB1 similarly controls the expression of the tomato orthologs SlDREB1, SlDREB2, and SlDELLA. Furthermore, AtJUB1 directly binds to the promoters of SlDREB1, SlDREB2 and SlDELLA in tomato. Our study highlights JUB1 as a transcriptional regulator of drought tolerance and suggests considerable conservation of the abiotic stress-related gene regulatory networks controlled by this NAC factor between Arabidopsis and tomato. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  7. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information (United States)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.


    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  8. Redox markers for drought-induced nodule senescence, a process occurring after drought-induced senescence of the lowest leaves in soybean (Glycine max). (United States)

    Marquez-Garcia, Belén; Shaw, Daniel; Cooper, James William; Karpinska, Barbara; Quain, Marian Dorcas; Makgopa, Eugene Matome; Kunert, Karl; Foyer, Christine Helen


    Water is an increasingly scarce resource that limits crop productivity in many parts of the world, and the frequency and severity of drought are predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Improving tolerance to drought stress is therefore important for maximizing future crop yields. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of drought on soybean (Glycine max) leaves and nodules in order to define phenotypic markers and changes in cellular redox state that characterize the stress response in different organs, and to characterize the relationships between leaf and nodule senescence during drought. Leaf and crown nodule metabolite pools were measured together with leaf and soil water contents, and leaf chlorophyll, total protein contents and chlorophyll a fluorescence quenching parameters in nodulated soybeans that were grown under either well-watered conditions or deprived of water for up to 21 d. Ureides, ascorbate, protein, chlorophyll and the ratios of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv') to maximal chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fm') fell to levels below detection in the oldest leaves after 21 d of drought. While these drought-induced responses were not observed in the youngest leaf ranks, the Fv'/Fm' ratios, pyridine nucleotide levels and the reduction state of the ascorbate pool were lower in all leaf ranks after 21 d of drought. In contrast to leaves, total nodule protein, pyridine nucleotides, ureides, ascorbate and glutathione contents increased as a result of the drought treatment. However, the nodule ascorbate pool was significantly less reduced as a result of drought. Higher levels of transcripts encoding two peroxiredoxins were detected in nodules exposed to drought stress but senescence-associated transcripts and other mRNAs encoding redox-related proteins were similar under both conditions. While the physiological impact of the drought was perceived throughout the shoot, stress-induced senescence occurred only in the oldest

  9. Remote sensing of drought and salinity stressed turfgrass (United States)

    Ikemura, Yoshiaki

    The ability to detect early signs of stress in turfgrass stands using a rapid, inexpensive, and nondestructive method would be a valuable management tool. Studies were conducted to determine if digital image analysis and spectroradiometric readings obtained from drought- and salinity-stressed turfgrasses accurately reflected the varying degrees of stress and correlated strongly with visual ratings, relative water content (RWC) and leaf osmolality, standard methods for measuring stress in plants. Greenhouse drought and salinity experiments were conducted on hybrid bluegrass [Poa arachnifera (Torn.) x pratensis (L.)] cv. Reveille and bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.)] cv. Princess 77. Increasing drought and salinity stress led to decreased RWC, increased leaf osmolality, and decreased visual ratings for both species. Percent green cover and hue values obtained from digital image analysis, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), calculated from spectroradiometric readings, were moderately to highly correlated with visual ratings, RWC, and leaf osmolality. Similarly, in a field validation study conducted on hybrid bluegrass, spectral reflectance ratios were moderately to highly correlated with visual ratings. In addition, percent green cover obtained from digital image analysis was strongly correlated with most of the spectral ratios, particularly the ratio of fluorescence peaks (r = -0.88 to -0.99), modified triangular vegetation index (MTVI) (r = 0.82 to 0.98), and NDVI (r = 0.84 to 0.99), suggesting that spectral reflectance and digital image analysis are equally effective at detecting changes in color brought on by stress. The two methods differed in their ability to distinguish between drought salinity stress. Hue values obtained from digital image analysis responded differently to increasing drought stress than to increasing salinity stress. Whereas the onset of drought stress was reflected by increased hue values followed by a decrease in values as

  10. Paleoclimatic implications of glacial and postglacial refugia for Pinus pumila in western Beringia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, P M; Lozhkin, A V; Solomatkina, T B; Brown, T A


    Palynological results from Julietta Lake currently provide the most direct evidence to support the existence of a glacial refugium for Pinus pumila in mountains of southwestern Beringia. Both percentages and accumulation rates indicate the evergreen shrub survived until at least {approx}19,000 14C yr B.P. in the Upper Kolyma region. Percentage data suggest numbers dwindled into the late glaciation, whereas pollen accumulation rates point towards a more rapid demise shortly after {approx}19,000 14C yr B.P. Pinus pumila did not re-establish in any great numbers until {approx}8100 14C yr B.P., despite the local presence {approx}9800 14C yr B.P. of Larix dahurica, which shares similar summer temperature requirements. The postglacial thermal maximum (in Beringia {approx}11,000-9000 14C yr B.P.) provided Pinus pumila shrubs with equally harsh albeit different conditions for survival than those present during the LGM. Regional records indicate that in this time of maximum warmth Pinus pumila likely sheltered in a second, lower-elevation refugium. Paleoclimatic models and modern ecology suggest that shifts in the nature of seasonal transitions and not only seasonal extremes have played important roles in the history of Pinus pumila over the last {approx}21,000 14C yr B.P.

  11. Global Synthesis of Drought Effects on Food Legume Production. (United States)

    Daryanto, Stefani; Wang, Lixin; Jacinthe, Pierre-André


    Food legume crops play important roles in conservation farming systems and contribute to food security in the developing world. However, in many regions of the world, their production has been adversely affected by drought. Although water scarcity is a severe abiotic constraint of legume crops productivity, it remains unclear how the effects of drought co-vary with legume species, soil texture, agroclimatic region, and drought timing. To address these uncertainties, we collected literature data between 1980 and 2014 that reported monoculture legume yield responses to drought under field conditions, and analyzed this data set using meta-analysis techniques. Our results showed that the amount of water reduction was positively related with yield reduction, but the extent of the impact varied with legume species and the phenological state during which drought occurred. Overall, lentil (Lens culinaris), groundnut (Arachis hypogaea), and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) were found to experience lower drought-induced yield reduction compared to legumes such as cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) and green gram (Vigna radiate). Yield reduction was generally greater when legumes experienced drought during their reproductive stage compared to during their vegetative stage. Legumes grown in soil with medium texture also exhibited greater yield reduction compared to those planted on soil of either coarse or fine texture. In contrast, regions and their associated climatic factors did not significantly affect legume yield reduction. In the face of changing climate, our study provides useful information for agricultural planning and research directions for development of drought-resistant legume species to improve adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems in the drought-prone regions of the world.

  12. Drought Resilience and Water Conservation Technical Brief (United States)

    In many areas of the US, the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events are increasing, this brief highlights EPA drought and conservation activities across the nation and includes links to additional materials and reference documents.

  13. Comprehensive Analysis of Drought Persistence, Hazard, and Recovery across the CONUS (United States)

    Zarekarizi, M.; Ahmadi, B.; Moradkhani, H.


    Drought is a creeping intertwined natural hazard affecting society more than any other natural disaster and causing enormous damages on economy and ecosystems. Better understanding of potential drought hazard can help water managers and stakeholders devising mitigation plans to minimize the adverse effects of droughts. In this study, soil moisture, simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, is used to analyze the probability of agricultural drought with different severities across the CONUS. Due to the persistence of soil moisture, a drought episode at a particular time is affected by its earlier status; therefore, this study has utilized a Copula function to model the selected hydrologic variable over the time. The probability of drought intensity for each unit is presented spatially. If the unit remains in the drought condition at the same or lower intensity, drought persists and if it improves above a pre-defined threshold, the unit recovers. Results show that the west of US is more vulnerable to drought persistence in summer and spring while the Midwest and Northeast of US are experiencing drought persistence in fall and winter. In addition, the analysis reveals that as the intensity of drought in a given season decreases the following season has higher chance of recovery.

  14. Tagging genes for drought resistance by DNA markers in wheat (abstract)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malik, T.A.; Rahman, S.; Zafar, Y.


    Wheat families (F/sub 3) raised from the seed of drought resistant and susceptible F/sub 2/ plants developed from the cross of drought resistant and susceptible parents were grown under greenhouse conditions in polyethylene tubes filled with soil and sand mixture. Drought stress was imposed and monitored at the seedling stage. The relative water content and net photosynthesis was recorded with increasing drought stress until a significant part of the seedling population had zero or negative net photosynthesis. The seedling with zero or negative net photosynthesis were named as drought susceptible and the seedlings at the same drought stress showing net photosynthesis were named as drought resistance. Twenty each of the most susceptible and resistant seedlings were selected for DNA extraction. Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique using bulked segregant analysis was used to identify DNA markers linked to drought resistance. The primers OPJ-05, OPJ-14, OPI-20 and OPA-19 produced polymorphic DNA fragments between the contrasting bulks. The polymorphic DNA fragment of 1.55kb produced by the primer OPA-19 was found linked to drought resistance. This DNA marker can be used in markers-assisted selection for drought resistance or to clone drought resistance gene. (author)

  15. Bacterial mediated amelioration of drought stress in drought tolerant ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Feb 23, 2015 ... for a beneficial effect of PGPRs application in enhancing drought tolerance of rice under water deficit conditions. ..... involvement of PGPRs in ROS metabolism in rice plants. ... osmoregulatory solute in plants (Kumar et al., 2011). ..... Pseudomonas fluorescens mediated saline resistance in groundnut.

  16. Assessment of Meteorological Drought Indices in Korea Using RCP 8.5 Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongwoo Jang


    Full Text Available Diverse drought indices have been developed and used across the globe to assess and monitor droughts. Among them, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI are drought indices that have been recently developed and are being used in the world’s leading countries. This study took place in Korea’s major observatories for drought prediction until 2100, using the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 scenario. On the basis of the drought index measured by SPI, future climates were forecast to be humid, as the index would rise over time. In contrast, the RDI, which takes evapotranspiration into account, anticipated dry climates, with the drought index gradually falling over time. From the analysis of the drought index through the RCP 8.5 scenario, extreme drought intensity will be more likely to occur due to rising temperatures. To obtain the diversity of drought prediction, the evapotranspiration was deemed necessary for calculating meteorological droughts.

  17. The Transcriptomic Responses of Pinus massoniana to Drought Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingfeng Du


    Full Text Available Masson pine (Pinus massoniana is a major fast-growing timber species planted in southern China, a region of seasonal drought. Using a drought-tolerance genotype of Masson pine, we conducted large-scale transcriptome sequencing using Illumina technology. This work aimed to evaluate the transcriptomic responses of Masson pine to different levels of drought stress. First, 3397, 1695 and 1550 unigenes with differential expression were identified by comparing plants subjected to light, moderate or severe drought with control plants. Second, several gene ontology (GO categories (oxidation-reduction and metabolism and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG pathways (plant hormone signal transduction and metabolic pathways were enriched, indicating that the expression levels of some genes in these enriched GO terms and pathways were altered under drought stress. Third, several transcription factors (TFs associated with circadian rhythms (HY5 and LHY, signal transduction (ERF, and defense responses (WRKY were identified, and these TFs may play key roles in adapting to drought stress. Drought also caused significant changes in the expression of certain functional genes linked to osmotic adjustment (P5CS, abscisic acid (ABA responses (NCED, PYL, PP2C and SnRK, and reactive oxygen species (ROS scavenging (GPX, GST and GSR. These transcriptomic results provide insight into the molecular mechanisms of drought stress adaptation in Masson pine.

  18. Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought (United States)

    Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua


    Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

  19. Comparative analysis of root transcriptome profiles of two pairs of drought-tolerant and susceptible rice near-isogenic lines under different drought stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moumeni Ali


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plant roots are important organs to uptake soil water and nutrients, perceiving and transducing of soil water deficit signals to shoot. The current knowledge of drought stress transcriptomes in rice are mostly relying on comparative studies of diverse genetic background under drought. A more reliable approach is to use near-isogenic lines (NILs with a common genetic background but contrasting levels of resistance to drought stress under initial exposure to water deficit. Here, we examined two pairs of NILs in IR64 background with contrasting drought tolerance. We obtained gene expression profile in roots of rice NILs under different levels of drought stress help to identify genes and mechanisms involved in drought stress. Results Global gene expression analysis showed that about 55% of genes differentially expressed in roots of rice in response to drought stress treatments. The number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs increased in NILs as the level of water deficits, increased from mild to severe condition, suggesting that more genes were affected by increasing drought stress. Gene onthology (GO test and biological pathway analysis indicated that activated genes in the drought tolerant NILs IR77298-14-1-2-B-10 and IR77298-5-6-B-18 were mostly involved in secondary metabolism, amino acid metabolism, response to stimulus, defence response, transcription and signal transduction, and down-regulated genes were involved in photosynthesis and cell wall growth. We also observed gibberellic acid (GA and auxin crosstalk modulating lateral root formation in the tolerant NILs. Conclusions Transcriptome analysis on two pairs of NILs with a common genetic background (~97% showed distinctive differences in gene expression profiles and could be effective to unravel genes involved in drought tolerance. In comparison with the moderately tolerant NIL IR77298-5-6-B-18 and other susceptible NILs, the tolerant NIL IR77298-14-1-2-B-10 showed

  20. Contrasting impacts of continuous moderate drought and episodic severe droughts on the aboveground-biomass increment and litterfall of three coexisting Mediterranean woody species. (United States)

    Liu, Daijun; Ogaya, Romà; Barbeta, Adrià; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep


    Climate change is predicted to increase the aridity in the Mediterranean Basin and severely affect forest productivity and composition. The responses of forests to different timescales of drought, however, are still poorly understood because extreme and persistent moderate droughts can produce nonlinear responses in plants. We conducted a rainfall-manipulation experiment in a Mediterranean forest dominated by Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo in the Prades Mountains in southern Catalonia from 1999 to 2014. The experimental drought significantly decreased forest aboveground-biomass increment (ABI), tended to increase the litterfall, and decreased aboveground net primary production throughout the 15 years of the study. The responses to the experimental drought were highly species-specific. A. unedo suffered a significant reduction in ABI, Q. ilex experienced a decrease during the early experiment (1999-2003) and in the extreme droughts of 2005-2006 and 2011-2012, and P. latifolia was unaffected by the treatment. The drought treatment significantly increased branch litterfall, especially in the extremely dry year of 2011, and also increased overall leaf litterfall. The drought treatment reduced the fruit production of Q. ilex, which affected seedling recruitment. The ABIs of all species were highly correlated with SPEI in early spring, whereas the branch litterfalls were better correlated with summer SPEIs and the leaf and fruit litterfalls were better correlated with autumn SPEIs. These species-specific responses indicated that the dominant species (Q. ilex) could be partially replaced by the drought-resistant species (P. latifolia). However, the results of this long-term study also suggest that the effect of drought treatment has been dampened over time, probably due to a combination of demographic compensation, morphological and physiological acclimation, and epigenetic changes. However, the structure of community (e.g., species composition

  1. (EAHB-AAA) cultivars to drought stress

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Banana (Musa spp.) yields are estimated at 5-30 t ha-1yr-1, lower than the potential 60 t ha-1yr-1, with the cause being drought stress. Much evidence among stakeholders shows little understanding about banana cultivar sensitivity, escape and avoidance mechanisms to drought due to un-attempted measures of retaining ...

  2. Evaluation of drought stress tolerance in promising lines of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. using drought resistance indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Shabani


    Full Text Available Introduction Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. is an annual grain legume or “pulse crop” that is 2th legume after soybean in the world and was cultivated in 60 country. Legume, spatially chickpea is the most important tolerant crop in arid and semi-arid country in western of Asia such as Iran. Chickpea can growth in poor soil and undesirable environment conditions. Drought is an important factors that influencing chickpea production and quality. As area of cultivation is in dryland conditions thus aim of researches is reach to tolerant genotypes. The objective of current study was to evaluate the genetic variation and drought resistance advanced genotypes in chickpea Materials and methods For investigation of genetic variation and drought resistance, 64 advanced genotypes were evaluated in a simple latis (LD with two replications under normal and drought stress conditions in deputy of Dryland Agricultural Research Institute of Kermanshah during 2013-2014 cropping season. Plant spacing was as plots with four rows in 4 m in length, 30 cm apart. The seed were sowed in row with 10 cm distance and the seeding rate was 33 seeds per m2 for all plots. At maturity stage after separation of border effects from each plot, grain yield was measured. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS, SPSS and STATISTICA packages. some drought resistance indices such as mean productivity (MP, geometric mean productivity (GMP, harmonic mean (HAM, stress tolerance index (STI, stress susceptibility index (SSI, yield index (YI, K1 and K2 were measured based on yield in both conditions. Also we used stress tolerance score (STS method for selection genotypes according to all indices. Results and discussion Study on correlation between Yp, Ys and drought resistance indices showed that Yp and Ys had positive and significant correlated with MP, GMP, STI, YI, HAM, K1 and K2 thus these indices were the most suitable drought tolerance criteria for screening of chickpea

  3. Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales (United States)

    Tijdeman, Erik; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin


    Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff) of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA). A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1) the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils), (2) the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3) the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for some of the

  4. Human influences on streamflow drought characteristics in England and Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tijdeman


    Full Text Available Human influences can affect streamflow drought characteristics and propagation. The question is where, when and why? To answer these questions, the impact of different human influences on streamflow droughts were assessed in England and Wales, across a broad range of climate and catchments conditions. We used a dataset consisting of catchments with near-natural flow as well as catchments for which different human influences have been indicated in the metadata (Factors Affecting Runoff of the UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA. A screening approach was applied on the streamflow records to identify human-influenced records with drought characteristics that deviated from those found for catchments with near-natural flow. Three different deviations were considered, specifically deviations in (1 the relationship between streamflow drought duration and the base flow index, BFI (specifically, BFIHOST, the BFI predicted from the hydrological properties of soils, (2 the correlation between streamflow and precipitation and (3 the temporal occurrence of streamflow droughts compared to precipitation droughts, i.e. an increase or decrease in streamflow drought months relative to precipitation drought months over the period of record. The identified deviations were then related to the indicated human influences. Results showed that the majority of catchments for which human influences were indicated did not show streamflow drought characteristics that deviated from those expected under near-natural conditions. For the catchments that did show deviating streamflow drought characteristics, prolonged streamflow drought durations were found in some of the catchments affected by groundwater abstractions. Weaker correlations between streamflow and precipitation were found for some of the catchments with reservoirs, water transfers or groundwater augmentation schemes. An increase in streamflow drought occurrence towards the end of their records was found for

  5. Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel


    Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help

  6. A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Fleig


    Full Text Available How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure, the inter-event time method (IT-method, and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA. The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed

  7. Response pattern of amino compounds in phloem and xylem of trees to soil drought depends on drought intensity and root symbiosis. (United States)

    Liu, X-P; Gong, C-M; Fan, Y-Y; Eiblmeier, M; Zhao, Z; Han, G; Rennenberg, H


    This study aimed to identify drought-mediated differences in amino nitrogen (N) composition and content of xylem and phloem in trees having different symbiotic N(2)-fixing bacteria. Under controlled water availability, 1-year-old seedlings of Robinia pseudoacacia (nodules with Rhizobium), Hippophae rhamnoides (symbiosis with Frankia) and Buddleja alternifolia (no such root symbiosis) were exposed to control, medium drought and severe drought, corresponding soil water content of 70-75%, 45-50% and 30-35% of field capacity, respectively. Composition and content of amino compounds in xylem sap and phloem exudates were analysed as a measure of N nutrition. Drought strongly reduced biomass accumulation in all species, but amino N content in xylem and phloem remained unaffected only in R. pseudoacacia. In H. rhamnoides and B. alternifolia, amino N in phloem remained constant, but increased in xylem of both species in response to drought. There were differences in composition of amino compounds in xylem and phloem of the three species in response to drought. Proline concentrations in long-distance transport pathways of all three species were very low, below the limit of detection in phloem of H. rhamnoides and in phloem and xylem of B. alternifolia. Apparently, drought-mediated changes in N composition were much more connected with species-specific changes in C:N ratios. Irrespective of soil water content, the two species with root symbioses did not show similar features for the different types of symbiosis, neither in N composition nor in N content. There was no immediate correlation between symbiotic N fixation and drought-mediated changes in amino N in the transport pathways. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  8. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia (United States)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.


    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  9. A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China (United States)

    Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.


    Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

  10. Isolation and characterization of some drought-related ESTs from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is one of the main constraints facing crops and affecting their production. In a trial to investigate and understand drought effect, differential display experiments were performed where; about 107 DD-fragments have been isolated from wild barley plants subjected to drought treatment. These fragments were ...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Considerations on the drought phenomenon in Cluj County. Cluj county area is 6674 km², and is located in the northwestern part of Romania. The climate is temperate continental with oceanic influences, relatively humid, but there are also periods of drought and even years with deficient rainfall, as there are periods of excess rainfall. Dryness and drought phenomena are caused by cosmic, climatic, hydrological (groundwater depth, the existence of surface water sources factors, features of the underlying surface, vegetation coverage, soil texture and structure. The relief determines a climate elevation with differences in terms of precipitation and temperatures quantities. To calculate the dryness degree of the climate at weather stations in the Cluj county, the Emmanuel de Martonne aridity index was used. Drought do not induce into the substrate the geomorphologic processes per se, however, they pave the way for starting the deflation process, surface erosion and ravine, by reducing the cohesion between the particles and the formation of deep cracks in the soil and even rock. In these climatic conditions, droughts are less frequent in the county of Cluj, in relation to the extra-Carpathian regions and are distributed unevenly across the county. The number of periods of drought decreases with the increase of the altitude, from an average of 2.6 drought periods a year at Dej (altitude of 232 m to an annual average of 0.3 draught periods at Vlădeasa Peak (altitude of 1836 m.

  12. Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in Luanhe River basin, China (United States)

    Wang, Yixuan; Zhang, Ting; Chen, Xu; Li, Jianzhu; Feng, Ping


    The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought are investigated for Luanhe River basin, using monthly precipitation data from 26 stations covering the common period of 1958-2011. The spatial pattern of drought was assessed by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed on 3- and 12-month time scales. In addition, annual SPI and seasonal SPIs (including spring SPI, summer SPI, autumn SPI, and winter SPI) were also defined and considered in this study to characterize seasonal and annual drought conditions, respectively. For all seven SPI cases, three distinctive sub-regions with different temporal evolutions of droughts are well identified, respectively, representing the southeast, middle, and northwest of the Luanhe River basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test with a trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) procedure and Sen's method were used to determine the temporal trends in the annual and seasonal SPI time series. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed for further detecting the periodical features of drought condition in each sub-region. Results of MK and Sen's tests show a general tendency of intensification in summer drought over the entire basin, while a significant mitigating trend in spring drought. On the whole, an aggravating trend of inter-annual drought is discovered across the basin. Based on the CWT, the drought variability in the basin is generally dominated by 16- to 64-month cycles, and the 2- to 6-year cycles appear to be obvious when concerned with annual and seasonal droughts. Furthermore, a cross wavelet analysis was performed to examine the possible links between the drought conditions and large-scale climate patterns. The teleconnections of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO show significant influences on the regional droughts principally concentrated in the 16- to 64-month period, maybe responsible for the physical causes of the cyclical behavior of drought occurrences. PDO and AMO also

  13. Genetic analysis of drought stress response in Arabidopsis thaliana and Brassica rapa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    El-Soda, M.


    Drought is the major abiotic stress affecting plant growth and limiting crop productivity worldwide. Plants have evolved three adaptive strategies, drought escape, drought avoidance and drought tolerance, to cope with drought. Knowledge on how Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL), or genes underlying

  14. Effects of meteorological droughts on agricultural water resources in southern China (United States)

    Lu, Houquan; Wu, Yihua; Li, Yijun; Liu, Yongqiang


    With the global warming, frequencies of drought are rising in the humid area of southern China. In this study, the effects of meteorological drought on the agricultural water resource based on the agricultural water resource carrying capacity (AWRCC) in southern China were investigated. The entire study area was divided into three regions based on the distributions of climate and agriculture. The concept of the maximum available water resources for crops was used to calculate AWRCC. Meanwhile, an agricultural drought intensity index (ADI), which was suitable for rice planting areas, was proposed based on the difference between crop water requirements and precipitation. The actual drought area and crop yield in drought years from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that ADI and AWRCC were significantly correlated with the actual drought occurrence area and food yield in the study area, which indicated ADI and AWRCC could be used in drought-related studies. The effects of seasonal droughts on AWRCC strongly depended on both the crop growth season and planting structure. The influence of meteorological drought on agricultural water resources was pronounced in regions with abundant water resources, especially in Southwest China, which was the most vulnerable to droughts. In Southwest China, which has dry and wet seasons, reducing the planting area of dry season crops and rice could improve AWRCC during drought years. Likewise, reducing the planting area of double-season rice could improve AWRCC during drought years in regions with a double-season rice cropping system. Our findings highlight the importance of adjusting the proportions of crop planting to improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources and alleviate drought hazards in some humid areas.

  15. Characterization of future drought conditions in the Lower Mekong River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madusanka Thilakarathne


    Full Text Available This study evaluates future changes to drought characteristics in the Lower Mekong River Basin using climate model projections. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB, covering Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, is vulnerable to increasing droughts. Univariate analysis was employed in this study to compare drought characteristics associated with different return periods for the historical period 1964–2005 and future scenarios (RCP 4.5 2016–2057, RCP 4.5 2058–2099, RCP 8.5 2016–2057 and RCP 8.5 2058–2099. Because a single drought event is defined by several correlated characteristics, drought risk assessment by a multivariate analysis was deemed appropriate, and a multivariate analysis of droughts was conducted using copula functions to investigate the differences in the trivariate joint occurrence probabilities of the historical period and future scenarios. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI was selected as the drought index because of its ability to detect and compare metrological droughts across time and space scales. Historical precipitation data from 1964 to 2005 and future precipitation projections from 2016 to 2099 for 15 global circulation models (GCMs obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP dataset were employed. In all future scenarios, the Lower LMB and 3S subbasins were expected to experience more severe and intense droughts. The multivariate drought risk assessment revealed an increase in drought risks in the LMB. However, the Chi-Mun subbasin may experience an alleviation of future drought characteristics. Because the basin was expected to experience an increase in average monthly precipitation in most months, the variability in magnitude suggested that the LMB region requires adaptation strategies to address future drought occurrences.

  16. Combining multiple sources of data to inform conservation of Lesser Prairie-Chicken populations (United States)

    Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James


    Conservation of small populations is often based on limited data from spatially and temporally restricted studies, resulting in management actions based on an incomplete assessment of the population drivers. If fluctuations in abundance are related to changes in weather, proper management is especially important, because extreme weather events could disproportionately affect population abundance. Conservation assessments, especially for vulnerable populations, are aided by a knowledge of how extreme events influence population status and trends. Although important for conservation efforts, data may be limited for small or vulnerable populations. Integrated population models maximize information from various sources of data to yield population estimates that fully incorporate uncertainty from multiple data sources while allowing for the explicit incorporation of environmental covariates of interest. Our goal was to assess the relative influence of population drivers for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the core of its range, western and southern Kansas, USA. We used data from roadside lek count surveys, nest monitoring surveys, and survival data from telemetry monitoring combined with climate (Palmer drought severity index) data in an integrated population model. Our results indicate that variability in population growth rate was most influenced by variability in juvenile survival. The Palmer drought severity index had no measurable direct effects on adult survival or mean number of offspring per female; however, there were declines in population growth rate following severe drought. Because declines in population growth rate occurred at a broad spatial scale, declines in response to drought were likely due to decreases in chick and juvenile survival rather than emigration outside of the study area. Overall, our model highlights the importance of accounting for environmental and demographic sources of variability, and provides a thorough

  17. Candidate genes for drought tolerance and improved productivity in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    tropics. Improving drought tolerance and productivity is one of the most difficult tasks for cereal breeders. The diffi- culty arises from the diverse strategies adopted by plants themselves to combat drought stress depending on the timing,. Candidate genes for drought tolerance and improved productivity in rice (Oryza sativa L.).

  18. A comprehensive framework for tourism and recreation drought vulnerability reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Deborah S K; Wilhelmi, Olga V; Finnessey, Taryn N; Deheza, Veva


    The effects of drought are vast, but loss statistics often do not reflect the impacts on the tourism and recreation sector, which for many places is one of the most critical economic drivers. This is concerning because drought events are common across the globe, with varying frequency, duration, and intensity, and are therefore unavoidable. Over the years, drought conditions have been at record levels in many regions, causing deep societal and economic impacts. However, little research has been conducted on connections between tourism/recreation and drought, revealing a distinct disconnect between the tourism/recreation sector and drought management. To bridge this gap in the current understanding of, and approaches to, managing drought in the tourism/recreation sector, we present an interdisciplinary conceptual framework that integrates tourism/recreation into the drought management process to ensure sustainable economic development and community vitality. The model presented here promotes understanding of critical interactions through a bottom-up stakeholder engagement process balanced with formal top-down management approaches. (letter)

  19. Groundwater quality surrounding Lake Texoma during short-term drought conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kampbell, Donald H.; An, Youn-Joo; Jewell, Ken P.; Masoner, Jason R.


    Stressors such as nitrates and total salts in ground water could potentially become a health or environmental problem during drought conditions. - Water quality data from 55 monitoring wells during drought conditions surrounding Lake Texoma, located on the border of Oklahoma and Texas, was compared to assess the influence of drought on groundwater quality. During the drought month of October, water table levels were three feet (0.9 m) lower compared with several months earlier under predrought climate conditions. Detection frequencies of nitrate (> 0.1 mg/l), orthophosphates (> 0.1 mg/l), chlorides (> MCL), and sulfates (> MCL) all increased during drought. Orthophosphate level was higher during drought. Largest increases in concentration were nitrate under both agriculture lands and in septic tank areas. An increase in ammonium-nitrogen was only detected in the septic tank area. The study showed that stressors such as nitrate and total salts could potentially become a health or environmental problem during drought

  20. Global Synthesis of Drought Effects on Food Legume Production.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefani Daryanto

    Full Text Available Food legume crops play important roles in conservation farming systems and contribute to food security in the developing world. However, in many regions of the world, their production has been adversely affected by drought. Although water scarcity is a severe abiotic constraint of legume crops productivity, it remains unclear how the effects of drought co-vary with legume species, soil texture, agroclimatic region, and drought timing. To address these uncertainties, we collected literature data between 1980 and 2014 that reported monoculture legume yield responses to drought under field conditions, and analyzed this data set using meta-analysis techniques. Our results showed that the amount of water reduction was positively related with yield reduction, but the extent of the impact varied with legume species and the phenological state during which drought occurred. Overall, lentil (Lens culinaris, groundnut (Arachis hypogaea, and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan were found to experience lower drought-induced yield reduction compared to legumes such as cowpea (Vigna unguiculata and green gram (Vigna radiate. Yield reduction was generally greater when legumes experienced drought during their reproductive stage compared to during their vegetative stage. Legumes grown in soil with medium texture also exhibited greater yield reduction compared to those planted on soil of either coarse or fine texture. In contrast, regions and their associated climatic factors did not significantly affect legume yield reduction. In the face of changing climate, our study provides useful information for agricultural planning and research directions for development of drought-resistant legume species to improve adaptation and resilience of agricultural systems in the drought-prone regions of the world.

  1. The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications (United States)

    Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.


    Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

  2. Drought-Induced Leaf Proteome Changes in Switchgrass Seedlings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhujia Ye


    Full Text Available Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum is a perennial crop producing deep roots and thus highly tolerant to soil water deficit conditions. However, seedling establishment in the field is very susceptible to prolonged and periodic drought stress. In this study, a “sandwich” system simulating a gradual water deletion process was developed. Switchgrass seedlings were subjected to a 20-day gradual drought treatment process when soil water tension was increased to 0.05 MPa (moderate drought stress and leaf physiological properties had expressed significant alteration. Drought-induced changes in leaf proteomes were identified using the isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ labeling method followed by nano-scale liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (nano-LC-MS/MS analysis. Additionally, total leaf proteins were processed using a combinatorial library of peptide ligands to enrich for lower abundance proteins. Both total proteins and those enriched samples were analyzed to increase the coverage of the quantitative proteomics analysis. A total of 7006 leaf proteins were identified, and 257 (4% of the leaf proteome expressed a significant difference (p < 0.05, fold change <0.6 or >1.7 from the non-treated control to drought-treated conditions. These proteins are involved in the regulation of transcription and translation, cell division, cell wall modification, phyto-hormone metabolism and signaling transduction pathways, and metabolic pathways of carbohydrates, amino acids, and fatty acids. A scheme of abscisic acid (ABA-biosynthesis and ABA responsive signal transduction pathway was reconstructed using these drought-induced significant proteins, showing systemic regulation at protein level to deploy the respective mechanism. Results from this study, in addition to revealing molecular responses to drought stress, provide a large number of proteins (candidate genes that can be employed to improve switchgrass seedling growth and

  3. Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics inThessaly region, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loukas


    Full Text Available The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Thessaly is the most intensely cultivated and productive agricultural plain region in Greece. Thessaly's total area is about 13700 km2 and it is surrounded by mountains and traversed by Pinios River. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined. Thessaly was divided into 212 grid-cells of 8 x 8 km and monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–1993 from 50 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinates and elevation data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded SPI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed and then, Drought Severity – Areal extent – Frequency (SAF annual and monthly curves were developed. The analysis indicated that moderate and severe droughts are common in Thessaly region. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed.

  4. Evaluation of PERSIANN-CDR for Meteorological Drought Monitoring over China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Guo


    Full Text Available In this paper, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR is analyzed for the assessment of meteorological drought. The evaluation is conducted over China at 0.5° spatial resolution against a ground-based gridded China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP from 1983 to 2014 (32 years. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at various time scales (1 month to 12 months is calculated for detecting drought events. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR depicts similar drought behavior as the ground-based CPAP in terms of capturing the spatial and temporal patterns of drought events over eastern China, where the intensity of gauge networks and the frequency of droughts are high. 6-month SPI shows the best agreement with CPAP in identifying drought months. However, large differences between PERSIANN-CDR and CPAP in depicting drought patterns and identifying specific drought events are found over northwestern China, particularly in Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. Factors behind this may be due to the relatively sparse gauge networks, the complicated terrain and the performance of PERSIANN algorithm.

  5. Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco (United States)

    Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen


    Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia

  6. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei


    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  7. A novel gene of Kalanchoe daigremontiana confers plant drought resistance. (United States)

    Wang, Li; Zhu, Chen; Jin, Lin; Xiao, Aihua; Duan, Jie; Ma, Luyi


    Kalanchoe (K.) daigremontiana is important for studying asexual reproduction under different environmental conditions. Here, we describe a novel KdNOVEL41 (KdN41) gene that may confer drought resistance and could thereby affect K. daigremontiana development. The detected subcellular localization of a KdN41/Yellow Fluorescent Protein (YFP) fusion protein was in the nucleus and cell membrane. Drought, salt, and heat stress treatment in tobacco plants containing the KdN41 gene promoter driving β-glucuronidase (GUS) gene transcription revealed that only drought stress triggered strong GUS staining in the vascular tissues. Overexpression (OE) of the KdN41 gene conferred improved drought resistance in tobacco plants compared to wild-type and transformed with empty vector plants by inducing higher antioxidant enzyme activities, decreasing cell membrane damage, increasing abscisic acid (ABA) content, causing reinforced drought resistance related gene expression profiles. The 3,3'-diaminobenzidine (DAB) and nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) staining results also showed less relative oxygen species (ROS) content in KdN41-overexpressing tobacco leaf during drought stress. Surprisingly, by re-watering after drought stress, KdN41-overexpressing tobacco showed earlier flowering. Overall, the KdN41 gene plays roles in ROS scavenging and osmotic damage reduction to improve tobacco drought resistance, which may increase our understanding of the molecular network involved in developmental manipulation under drought stress in K. daigremontiana.

  8. Institutional adaptation to drought: the case of Fars Agricultural Organization. (United States)

    Keshavarz, Marzieh; Karami, Ezatollah


    Recurrent droughts in arid and semi-arid regions are already rendering agricultural production, mainstay of subsistence livelihoods, uncertain. In order to mitigate the impact of drought, agricultural organizations must increase their capacity to adapt. Institutional adaptation refers to the creation of an effective, long-term government institution or set of institutions in charge of planning and policy, and its capacity to develop, revise, and execute drought policies. Using the Fars Agricultural Organization in Iran, as a case study, this paper explores the institutional capacities and capabilities, necessary to adapt to the drought conditions. The STAIR model was used as a conceptual tool, and the Bayesian network and Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling was applied to explain the mechanisms by which organizational capacities influence drought management. A survey of 309 randomly selected managers and specialists indicated serious weaknesses in the ability of the organization to apply adaptation strategies effectively. Analysis of the causal models illustrated that organizational culture and resources and infrastructure significantly influenced drought management performance. Moreover, managers and specialists perceived human resources and strategy, goals, and action plan, respectively, as the main drivers of institutional adaptation to drought conditions. Recommendations and implications for drought management policy are offered to increase organizational adaptation to drought and reduce the subsequent sufferings. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment of drought during corn growing season in Northeast China (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Hu, Zhenghua


    Northeast China has experienced extensive climate change during the past decades. Corn is the primary production crop in China and is sensitive to meteorological disasters, especially drought. Drought has thus greatly endangered crop production and the country's food security. The majority of previous studies has not highlighted farming adaptation activities undertaken within the changed climate, which should not be neglected. In this study, we assessed drought hazard in the corn vegetation growing period, the reproductive growing period, and the whole growing period based on data for yearly corn phenology, daily precipitation, and temperature gathered at 26 agro-meteorological stations across Northeast China from 1981 to 2009. The M-K trend test was used to detect trends in sowing date and drought. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to describe drought. Drought frequency and intensity were used to assess the drought hazard in the region. We found that the sowing date was delayed in the southern part of the study area, coupled with a trend towards a shorter and more humid vegetation growing period. In the northern part of the study area, an earlier sowing date increased the length of the vegetation growing period and the reproductive growing period, while drying trends occurred within the two cor