WorldWideScience

Sample records for overestimated future yields

  1. Resource overestimates

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Extensive field studies revealed over-estimates of bamboo stocks by a factor of ten! Extensive field studies revealed over-estimates of bamboo stocks by a factor of ten! Forest compartments that had been completely clear felled to set up WCPM still showed large stocks because ...

  2. Looking into the crystal ball of our emotional lives: emotion regulation and the overestimation of future guilt and shame.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Wilco W; van Dillen, Lotte F; Rotteveel, Mark; Seip, Elise C

    2017-04-01

    In the present study, we examined the impact of emotion regulation on the intensity bias in guilt and shame. Fifty-two undergraduates either forecasted their emotions and emotion regulation following a guilt- and shame-eliciting situation or reported their actual experienced emotions and employed emotion regulation. Results showed a clear intensity bias, that is, forecasters predicted to experience more guilt and shame than experiencers actually experienced. Furthermore, results showed that forecasters predicted to employ less down-regulating emotion regulation (i.e. less acceptance) and more up-regulating emotion regulation (i.e. more rumination) than experiencers actually employed. Moreover, results showed that the intensity differences between forecasted and experienced guilt and shame could be explained (i.e. were mediated) by the differences between forecasted and actually employed emotion regulation (i.e. acceptance and rumination). These findings provide support for the hypothesis that the intensity bias can-at least in part-be explained by the misprediction of future emotion regulation.

  3. Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tulbure, Mirela G; Wimberly, Michael C; Owens, Vance N

    2012-01-01

    A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy. (letter)

  4. Future Climate Forcings and Olive Yield in a Mediterranean Orchard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Viola

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The olive tree is one of the most characteristic rainfed trees in the Mediterranean region. Observed and forecasted climate modifications in this region, such as the CO2 concentration and temperature increase and the net radiation, rainfall and wind speed decrease, will likely alter vegetation water stress and modify productivity. In order to simulate how climatic change could alter soil moisture dynamic, biomass growth and fruit productivity, a water-driven crop model has been used in this study. The numerical model, previously calibrated on an olive orchard located in Sicily (Italy with a satisfactory reproduction of historical olive yield data, has been forced with future climate scenarios generated using a stochastic weather generator and a downscaling procedure of an ensemble of climate model outputs. The stochastic downscaling is carried out using simulations of some General Circulation Models adopted in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC assessment report (4AR for future scenarios. The outcomes state that climatic forcings driving potential evapotranspiration compensate for each other, resulting in a slight increase of this water demand flux; moreover, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to a potential assimilation increase and, consequently, to an overall productivity increase in spite of the growth of water stress due to the rainfall reduction.

  5. Maximizing the ExoEarth candidate yield from a future direct imaging mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stark, Christopher C.; Roberge, Aki; Mandell, Avi; Robinson, Tyler D.

    2014-01-01

    ExoEarth yield is a critical science metric for future exoplanet imaging missions. Here we estimate exoEarth candidate yield using single visit completeness for a variety of mission design and astrophysical parameters. We review the methods used in previous yield calculations and show that the method choice can significantly impact yield estimates as well as how the yield responds to mission parameters. We introduce a method, called Altruistic Yield Optimization, that optimizes the target list and exposure times to maximize mission yield, adapts maximally to changes in mission parameters, and increases exoEarth candidate yield by up to 100% compared to previous methods. We use Altruistic Yield Optimization to estimate exoEarth candidate yield for a large suite of mission and astrophysical parameters using single visit completeness. We find that exoEarth candidate yield is most sensitive to telescope diameter, followed by coronagraph inner working angle, followed by coronagraph contrast, and finally coronagraph contrast noise floor. We find a surprisingly weak dependence of exoEarth candidate yield on exozodi level. Additionally, we provide a quantitative approach to defining a yield goal for future exoEarth-imaging missions.

  6. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  7. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaqin He

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yield variation. Spatial and temporal patterns of the relationships between OSR yield, climatic factors were estimated together with the effects of farmer adaptation and management practices on yield variability. The analysis revealed that yields in the low-latitude production regions were more sensitive to temperature increases and likely to decline. Precipitation iwas the most influential factor on yield at the first two growth stages; temperature and sunshine hours were most important at the third and fourth growth stages, respectively. Labour input was the most influential management factor affecting yields compared with fertilizer and other inputs. The study concludes that projection of future climate change impacts will need inter alia to incorporate more sophisticated and detailed measures of climatic variables than simple means of temperature and precipitation, incorporating timing in relation to plant growth and yield.

  8. The predictive power of dividend yields for future inflation: Money illusion or rational causes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    slope coefficients that increase numerically with the horizon in regressions of future inflation onto the dividend yield, in accordance with the data. A purely rational version of the model with no money illusion, but with a link from expected inflation to real consumption growth, also generates...

  9. Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

    2014-03-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for

  10. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

    2015-10-01

    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  11. The Effects of Weather on Oilseed Rape (OSR) Yield in China: Future Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Yaqin He; Brian J. Revell; Bofeng Leng; Zhongchao Feng

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the role of climatic factors on crop yields is essential in predicting the future impact of climate change. In order to understand the influence of climatic factors on OSR, detailed farm-level panel data from 2566 farms across 67 counties of the 6 major OSR production regions in China, from the surveys conducted by the national OSR industry project between 2008 and 2013, were used to examine the contribution of changes in selected climatic variables between 2008 and 2013 to yiel...

  12. Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhaozhong; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

    Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O 3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O 3] (≤26 ppb). With potato, current [O 3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%, 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O 3], future [O 3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O 3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO 2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato, and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O 3]. These findings confirm the rising [O 3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century.

  13. Future wheat yields in Western Australia under a warmer and drier climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farre, Imma; Foster, Ian; Charles, Steve

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Climate change projections for the mid 21st century for southern Western Australia indicate an increase in temperatures, a decrease in rainfall and higher C02 concentrations. These changes could have adverse impacts on some agricultural systems, but they may also offer new opportunities (i.e. in areas where the risk of waterlogging may be reduced). In this paper we studied the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production by combining three modelling systems. Daily climate data for current and future conditions from the CCAM climate model was statistically downscaled to individual locations in the Western Australia wheatbelt. This climate data was then input to the APSIM-Wheat simulation model to evaluate yields and phenology under current and future climate for several soil types. The aim was to investigate the usefulness of such a modelling cascade in defining key risks to wheat cropping from projected climate change. In an earlier stage of the project, we compared climate simulation from several climate models (CSIRO Mk3, CCAM, ECHAM and HADCM), and selected the CCAM model as best representing the climate of southern Western Australia. This was used for a more detailed study of the impacts on wheat cropping. The APSIM model simulates crop development, yield, water uptake and nitrogen accumulation in response to temperature, radiation, C02 level, water and nitrogen supply. It offers a framework for investigating interactions and testing some simple adaptation options. The CCAM model simulated total annual rainfall reductions of 5-11% for 2050 across the locations studied (consistent with other model projections). Total annual rainfall reductions tended to be higher in the high-rainfall locations than in the low- or medium-rainfall locations. The highest seasonal rainfall reduction was predicted for April-June, resulting in later sowing opportunities and decreasing expected yields. The impacts of climate change varied depending on

  14. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sultan, B; Guan, K; Lobell, D B; Kouressy, M; Biasutti, M; Piani, C; Hammer, G L; McLean, G

    2014-01-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO 2 , mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO 2 . Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a

  15. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-10-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential

  16. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  17. Simulating future wheat yield under climate change, carbon dioxide enrichment and technology improvement in Iran. Case study: Azarbaijan region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mansouri, H.; Raei, Y.; Zaeim, A.N.

    2015-07-01

    Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years. (Author)

  18. Future consequences of decreasing marginal production efficiency in the high-yielding dairy cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moallem, U

    2016-04-01

    The objectives were to examine the gross and marginal production efficiencies in high-yielding dairy cows and the future consequences on dairy industry profitability. Data from 2 experiments were used in across-treatments analysis (n=82 mid-lactation multiparous Israeli-Holstein dairy cows). Milk yields, body weights (BW), and dry matter intakes (DMI) were recorded daily. In both experiments, cows were fed a diet containing 16.5 to 16.6% crude protein and net energy for lactation (NEL) at 1.61 Mcal/kg of dry matter (DM). The means of milk yield, BW, DMI, NEL intake, and energy required for maintenance were calculated individually over the whole study, and used to calculate gross and marginal efficiencies. Data were analyzed in 2 ways: (1) simple correlation between variables; and (2) cows were divided into 3 subgroups, designated low, moderate, and high DMI (LDMI, MDMI, and HDMI), according to actual DMI per day: ≤ 26 kg (n=27); >26 through 28.2 kg (n=28); and >28.2 kg (n=27). The phenotypic Pearson correlations among variables were analyzed, and the GLM procedure was used to test differences between subgroups. The relationships between milk and fat-corrected milk yields and the corresponding gross efficiencies were positive, whereas BW and gross production efficiency were negatively correlated. The marginal production efficiency from DM and energy consumed decreased with increasing DMI. The difference between BW gain as predicted by the National Research Council model (2001) and the present measurements increased with increasing DMI (r=0.68). The average calculated energy balances were 1.38, 2.28, and 4.20 Mcal/d (standard error of the mean=0.64) in the LDMI, MDMI, and HDMI groups, respectively. The marginal efficiency for milk yields from DMI or energy consumed was highest in LDMI, intermediate in MDMI, and lowest in HDMI. The predicted BW gains for the whole study period were 22.9, 37.9, and 75.8 kg for the LDMI, MDMI, and HDMI groups, respectively. The

  19. High liquid fuel yielding biofuel processes and a roadmap for the future transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Navneet R.

    In a fossil-fuel deprived world when crude oil will be scarce and transportation need cannot be met with electricity and transportation liquid fuel must be produced, biomass derived liquid fuels can be a natural replacement. However, the carbon efficiency of the currently known biomass to liquid fuel conversion processes ranges from 35-40%, yielding 90 ethanol gallon equivalents (ege) per ton of biomass. This coupled with the fact that the efficiency at which solar energy is captured by biomass (hydrodeoxygenation is proposed which can achieve liquid fuel yield of 215 ege/ton consuming 0.11 kg hydrogen per liter of oil. Due to the lower hydrogen consumption of the H2Bioil process, synergistically integrated transition pathways are feasible where hot syngas derived from coal gasification (H2Bioil-C) or a natural gas reformer (H 2Bioil-NG) is used to supply the hydrogen and process heat for the biomass fast-hydropyrolysis/hydrodeoxygenation. Another off-shoot of the H2Bioil process is the H2Bioil-B process, where hydrogen required for the hydropyrolysis is obtained from gasification of a fraction of the biomass. H2Bioil-B achieves the highest liquid fuel yield (126-146 ege/ton of biomass) reported in the literature for any self-contained conversion of biomass to biofuel. Finally, an integration of the H2Bioil process with the H2CAR process is suggested which can achieve 100% carbon efficiency (330 ege/ton of biomass) at the expense of 0.24 kg hydrogen/liter of oil. A sun-to-fuel efficiency analysis shows that extracting CO2 from air and converting it to liquid fuel is at least two times more efficient than growing dedicated fuel crops and converting them to liquid fuel even for the highest biomass growth rates feasible by algae. This implies that liquid fuel should preferably be produced from sustainably available waste (SAW) biomass first and if the SAW biomass is unable to meet the demand for liquid fuel, then, CO2 should be extracted from air and converted to

  20. Assessments of Future Maize Yield Potential Changes in the Korean Peninsula Using Multiple Crop Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, J.; Lee, W. K.; Kafatos, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environment due to the differences of political and socio-economical system between Republic of Korea (SK, hereafter) and Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (NK, hereafter). NK has been suffering lack of food supplies caused by natural disasters, land degradation and political failure. The neighboring developed country SK has better agricultural system but very low food self-sufficiency rate. Maize is an important crop in both countries since it is staple food for NK and SK is No. 2 maize importing country in the world after Japan. Therefore, evaluating maize yield potential (Yp) in the two distinct regions is essential to assess food security under climate change and variability. In this study, we utilized multiple process-based crop models, having ability of regional scale assessment, to evaluate maize Yp and assess the model uncertainties -EPIC, GEPIC, DSSAT, and APSIM model that has capability of regional scale expansion (apsimRegions). First we evaluated each crop model for 3 years from 2012 to 2014 using reanalysis data (RDAPS; Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System produced by Korea Meteorological Agency) and observed yield data. Each model performances were compared over the different regions in the Korean Peninsula having different local climate characteristics. To quantify of the major influence of at each climate variables, we also conducted sensitivity test using 20 years of climatology in historical period from 1981 to 2000. Lastly, the multi-crop model ensemble analysis was performed for future period from 2031 to 2050. The required weather variables projected for mid-century were employed from COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) East Asia. The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas

  1. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  2. Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable

  3. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  4. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  5. Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephen P; Marshall-Colon, Amy; Zhu, Xin-Guang

    2015-03-26

    Increase in demand for our primary foodstuffs is outstripping increase in yields, an expanding gap that indicates large potential food shortages by mid-century. This comes at a time when yield improvements are slowing or stagnating as the approaches of the Green Revolution reach their biological limits. Photosynthesis, which has been improved little in crops and falls far short of its biological limit, emerges as the key remaining route to increase the genetic yield potential of our major crops. Thus, there is a timely need to accelerate our understanding of the photosynthetic process in crops to allow informed and guided improvements via in-silico-assisted genetic engineering. Potential and emerging approaches to improving crop photosynthetic efficiency are discussed, and the new tools needed to realize these changes are presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  7. Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

    2018-04-01

    Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different

  8. Overestimating resource value and its effects on fighting decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Alan Dugatkin

    Full Text Available Much work in behavioral ecology has shown that animals fight over resources such as food, and that they make strategic decisions about when to engage in such fights. Here, we examine the evolution of one, heretofore unexamined, component of that strategic decision about whether to fight for a resource. We present the results of a computer simulation that examined the evolution of over- or underestimating the value of a resource (food as a function of an individual's current hunger level. In our model, animals fought for food when they perceived their current food level to be below the mean for the environment. We considered seven strategies for estimating food value: 1 always underestimate food value, 2 always overestimate food value, 3 never over- or underestimate food value, 4 overestimate food value when hungry, 5 underestimate food value when hungry, 6 overestimate food value when relatively satiated, and 7 underestimate food value when relatively satiated. We first competed all seven strategies against each other when they began at approximately equal frequencies. In such a competition, two strategies--"always overestimate food value," and "overestimate food value when hungry"--were very successful. We next competed each of these strategies against the default strategy of "never over- or underestimate," when the default strategy was set at 99% of the population. Again, the strategies of "always overestimate food value" and "overestimate food value when hungry" fared well. Our results suggest that overestimating food value when deciding whether to fight should be favored by natural selection.

  9. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank J.; Raes, Frank; Krol, Maarten C.; Emberson, Lisa; Cofala, Janusz

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic "current legislation (CLE) scenario", i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia. Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of "western" crop exposure-response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative. Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2-6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1-2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat). Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic

  10. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

    2016-12-01

    Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

  12. Linkages among U.S. Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Futures and Stock Market Implied Volatility: New Nonparametric Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vychytilova Jana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore specific cross-asset market correlations over the past fifteen- yearperiod-from January 04, 1999 till April 01, 2015, and within four sub-phases covering both the crisis and the non-crisis periods. On the basis of multivariate statistical methods, we focus on investigating relations between selected well-known market indices- U.S. treasury bond yields- the 30-year treasury yield index (TYX and the 10-year treasury yield (TNX; commodity futures the TR/J CRB; and implied volatility of S&P 500 index- the VIX. We estimate relative logarithmic returns by using monthly close prices adjusted for dividends and splits and run normality and correlation analyses. This paper indicates that the TR/J CRB can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution, whereas the rest of benchmarks do not come from a normal distribution. This paper, inter alia, points out some evidence of a statistically significant negative relationship between bond yields and the VIX in the past fifteen years and a statistically significant negative linkage between the TR/J CRB and the VIX since 2009. In rather general terms, this paper thereafter supports the a priori idea- financial markets are interconnected. Such knowledge can be beneficial for building and testing accurate financial market models, and particularly for the understanding and recognizing market cycles.

  13. Equity yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, E.; van Binsbergen, J.H.; Koijen, R.S.J.; Hueskes, W.

    2013-01-01

    We study a new data set of dividend futures with maturities up to ten years across three world regions: the US, Europe, and Japan. We use these asset prices to construct equity yields, analogous to bond yields. We decompose the equity yields to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth

  14. Reducing WCET Overestimations by Correcting Errors in Loop Bound Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanqi Meng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce overestimations of worst-case execution time (WCET, in this article, we firstly report a kind of specific WCET overestimation caused by non-orthogonal nested loops. Then, we propose a novel correction approach which has three basic steps. The first step is to locate the worst-case execution path (WCEP in the control flow graph and then map it onto source code. The second step is to identify non-orthogonal nested loops from the WCEP by means of an abstract syntax tree. The last step is to recursively calculate the WCET errors caused by the loose loop bound constraints, and then subtract the total errors from the overestimations. The novelty lies in the fact that the WCET correction is only conducted on the non-branching part of WCEP, thus avoiding potential safety risks caused by possible WCEP switches. Experimental results show that our approach reduces the specific WCET overestimation by an average of more than 82%, and 100% of corrected WCET is no less than the actual WCET. Thus, our approach is not only effective but also safe. It will help developers to design energy-efficient and safe real-time systems.

  15. Overestimation of Knowledge about Word Meanings: The "Misplaced Meaning" Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kominsky, Jonathan F.; Keil, Frank C.

    2014-01-01

    Children and adults may not realize how much they depend on external sources in understanding word meanings. Four experiments investigated the existence and developmental course of a "Misplaced Meaning" (MM) effect, wherein children and adults overestimate their knowledge about the meanings of various words by underestimating how much…

  16. Do young novice drivers overestimate their driving skills?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Craen, S. de Twisk, D.A.M. Hagenzieker, M.P. Elffers, H. & Brookhuis, K.A.

    2007-01-01

    In this study the authors argue that, in order to sufficiently adapt to task demands in traffic, drivers have to make an assessment of their own driving skills. There are indications that drivers in general, and novice drivers in particular, overestimate their driving skills. The objective of this

  17. Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

    2017-11-01

    Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation

  18. Have We Overestimated Saline Aquifer CO2 Storage Capacities?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibeau, S.; Mucha, V.

    2011-01-01

    During future, large scale CO 2 geological storage in saline aquifers, fluid pressure is expected to rise as a consequence of CO 2 injection, but the pressure build up will have to stay below specified values to ensure a safe and long term containment of the CO 2 in the storage site. The pressure build up is the result of two different effects. The first effect is a local overpressure around the injectors, which is due to the high CO 2 velocities around the injectors, and which can be mitigated by adding CO 2 injectors. The second effect is a regional scale pressure build up that will take place if the storage aquifer is closed or if the formation water that flows away from the pressurised area is not large enough to compensate volumetrically the CO 2 injection. This second effect cannot be mitigated by adding additional injectors. In the first section of this paper, we review some major global and regional assessments of CO 2 storage capacities in deep saline aquifers, in term of mass and storage efficiency. These storage capacities are primarily based on a volumetric approach: storage capacity is the volumetric sum of the CO 2 that can be stored through various trapping mechanisms. We then discuss in Section 2 storage efficiencies derived from a pressure build up approach, as stated in the CO2STORE final report (Chadwick A. et al. (eds) (2008) Best Practice for the Storage of CO 2 in Saline Aquifers, Observations and Guidelines from the SACS and CO2STORE Projects, Keyworth, Nottingham, BGS Occasional Publication No. 14) and detailed by Van der Meer and Egberts (van der Meer L.G.H., Egberts P.J.P. (2008) A General Method for Calculating Subsurface CO 2 Storage Capacity, OTC Paper 19309, presented at the OTC Conference held in Houston, Texas, USA, 5-8 May). A quantitative range of such storage efficiency is presented, based on a review of orders of magnitudes of pore and water compressibilities and allowable pressure increase. To illustrate the relevance of this

  19. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analysis--a simulation study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorlund, Kristian; Imberger, Georgina; Walsh, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Meta-analyses including a limited number of patients and events are prone to yield overestimated intervention effect estimates. While many assume bias is the cause of overestimation, theoretical considerations suggest that random error may be an equal or more frequent cause. The independent impact...... of random error on meta-analyzed intervention effects has not previously been explored. It has been suggested that surpassing the optimal information size (i.e., the required meta-analysis sample size) provides sufficient protection against overestimation due to random error, but this claim has not yet been...

  20. Partial report and other sampling procedures overestimate the duration of iconic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appelman, I B

    1980-03-01

    In three experiments, subjects estimated the duration of a brief visual image (iconic memory) either directly by adjusting onset of a click to offset of the visual image, or indirectly with a Sperling partial report (sampling) procedure. The results indicated that partial report and other sampling procedures may reflect other brief phenomena along with iconic memory. First, the partial report procedure yields a greater estimate of the duration of iconic memory than the more direct click method. Second, the partial report estimate of the duration of iconic memory is affected if the subject is required to simultaneously retain a list of distractor items (memory load), while the click method estimate of the duration of iconic memory is not affected by a memory load. Finally, another sampling procedure based on visual cuing yields different estimates of the duration of iconic memory depending on how many items are cued. It was concluded that partial report and other sampling procedures overestimate the duration of iconic memory.

  1. Drought mitigation in perennial crops by fertilization and adjustments of regional yield models for future climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantola, I. B.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Masters, M. D.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.

    2017-12-01

    Increased variability and intensity of precipitation in the Midwest agricultural belt due to climate change is a major concern. The success of perennial bioenergy crops in replacing maize for bioethanol production is dependent on sustained yields that exceed maize, and the marketing of perennial crops often emphasizes the resilience of perennial agriculture to climate stressors. Land conversion from maize for bioethanol to Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) increases yields and annual evapotranspiration rates (ET). However, establishment of miscanthus also increases biome water use efficiency (the ratio between net ecosystem productivity after harvest and ET), due to greater belowground biomass in miscanthus than in maize or soybean. In 2012, a widespread drought reduced the yield of 5-year-old miscanthus plots in central Illinois by 36% compared to the previous two years. Eddy covariance data indicated continued soil water deficit during the hydrologically-normal growing season in 2013 and miscanthus yield failed to rebound as expected, lagging behind pre-drought yields by an average of 53% over the next three years. In early 2014, nitrogen fertilizer was applied to half of mature (7-year-old) miscanthus plots in an effort to improve yields. In plots with annual post-emergence application of 60 kg ha-1 of urea, peak biomass was 29% greater than unfertilized miscanthus in 2014, and 113% greater in 2015, achieving statistically similar yields to the pre-drought average. Regional-scale models of perennial crop productivity use 30-year climate averages that are inadequate for predicting long-term effects of short-term extremes on perennial crops. Modeled predictions of perennial crop productivity incorporating repeated extreme weather events, observed crop response, and the use of management practices to mitigate water deficit demonstrate divergent effects on predicted yields.

  2. Quantifying trade-offs between future yield levels, food availability and forest and woodland conservation in Benin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duku, Confidence; Zwart, Sander J; van Bussel, Lenny G J; Hein, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Meeting the dual objectives of food security and ecosystem protection is a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end agricultural intensification is considered desirable, yet, there remain uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change on opportunities for agricultural intensification and the adequacy of intensification options given the rapid population growth. We quantify trade-offs between levels of yield gap closure, food availability and forest and woodland conservation under different scenarios. Each scenario is made up of a combination of variants of four parameters i.e. (1) climate change based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs); (2) population growth based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs); (3) cropland expansion with varying degrees of deforestation; and (4) different degrees of yield gap closure. We carry out these analyses for three major food crops, i.e. maize, cassava and yam, in Benin. Our analyses show that in most of the scenarios, the required levels of yield gap closures required to maintain the current levels of food availability can be achieved by 2050 by maintaining the average rate of yield increases recorded over the past two and half decades in addition to the current cropping intensity. However, yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to achieve the required levels of yield gap closures by 2100. Our analyses also show that without the stated levels of yield gap closure, the areas under maize, cassava and yam cultivation will have to increase by 95%, 102% and 250% respectively in order to maintain the current levels of per capita food availability. Our study shows that food security outcomes and forest and woodland conservation goals in Benin and likely the larger SSA region are inextricably linked together and require holistic management strategies that considers trade-offs and co-benefits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All

  3. MRI Overestimates Excitotoxic Amygdala Lesion Damage in Rhesus Monkeys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M. Basile

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Selective, fiber-sparing excitotoxic lesions are a state-of-the-art tool for determining the causal contributions of different brain areas to behavior. For nonhuman primates especially, it is advantageous to keep subjects with high-quality lesions alive and contributing to science for many years. However, this requires the ability to estimate lesion extent accurately. Previous research has shown that in vivo T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI accurately estimates damage following selective ibotenic acid lesions of the hippocampus. Here, we show that the same does not apply to lesions of the amygdala. Across 19 hemispheres from 13 rhesus monkeys, MRI assessment consistently overestimated amygdala damage as assessed by microscopic examination of Nissl-stained histological material. Two outliers suggested a linear relation for lower damage levels, and values of unintended amygdala damage from a previous study fell directly on that regression line, demonstrating that T2 hypersignal accurately predicts damage levels below 50%. For unintended damage, MRI estimates correlated with histological assessment for entorhinal cortex, perirhinal cortex and hippocampus, though MRI significantly overestimated the extent of that damage in all structures. Nevertheless, ibotenic acid injections routinely produced extensive intentional amygdala damage with minimal unintended damage to surrounding structures, validating the general success of the technique. The field will benefit from more research into in vivo lesion assessment techniques, and additional evaluation of the accuracy of MRI assessment in different brain areas. For now, in vivo MRI assessment of ibotenic acid lesions of the amygdala can be used to confirm successful injections, but MRI estimates of lesion extent should be interpreted with caution.

  4. Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Sun; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen Mack; Steve McNulty; Peter Caldwell; K. Duan; Y. Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)...

  5. Using the CLM Crop Model to assess the impacts of changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Geographic Distribution on Historical and Future Crop Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, P.

    2015-12-01

    Since the start of the green revolution global crop yields have increased linearly for most major cereal crops, so that present day global values are around twice those of the 1960s. The increase in crop yields have allowed for large increases in global agricultural production without correspondingly large increases in cropping area. Future projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework and other assessments result in increases of global crop production of greater than 100% by the year 2050. In order to meet this increased agricultural demand within the available arable land, future production gains need to be understood in terms of the yield changes due to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and adaptive management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. In addition to the changes in crop yield, future agricultural demand will need to be met through increasing cropping areas into what are currently marginal lands at the cost of existing forests and other natural ecosystems. In this study we assess the utility of the crop model within the Community Land Model (CLM Crop) to provide both historical and future guidance on changes in crop yields under a range of global idealized crop modeling experiments. The idealized experiments follow the experimental design of the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) in which CLM Crop is a participating model. The idealized experiments consist of global crop simulations for Cotton, Maize, Rice, Soy, Sugarcane, and Wheat under various climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation prescription, and nitrogen fertilizer application. The time periods simulated for the experiments are for the Historical period (1901 - 2005), and for the two Representative Concentration Pathways of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006 - 2100). Each crop is simulated on all land grid cells globally for each time period with atmospheric forcing that is a combination of: 1. transient climate and CO2; 2. transient climate

  6. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Daniel W; Lobell, David B; Sheffield, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century. (paper)

  7. The Overestimation Phenomenon in a Skill-Based Gaming Context: The Case of March Madness Pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Dae Hee

    2016-03-01

    Over 100 million people are estimated to take part in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship bracket contests. However, relatively little is known about consumer behavior in skill-based gaming situations (e.g., sports betting). In two studies, we investigated the overestimation phenomenon in the "March Madness" context. In Study 1 (N = 81), we found that individuals who were allowed to make their own predictions were significantly more optimistic about their performance than individuals who did not make their own selections. In Study 2 (N = 197), all subjects participated in a mock competitive bracket pool. In line with the illusion of control theory, results showed that higher self-ratings of probability of winning significantly increased maximum willingness to wager but did not improve actual performance. Lastly, perceptions of high probability of winning significantly contributed to consumers' enjoyment and willingness to participate in a bracket pool in the future.

  8. Gun Carrying by High School Students in Boston, MA: Does Overestimation of Peer Gun Carrying Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemenway, David; Vriniotis, Mary; Johnson, Renee M.; Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates: (1) whether high school students overestimate gun carrying by their peers, and (2) whether those students who overestimate peer gun carrying are more likely to carry firearms. Data come from a randomly sampled survey conducted in 2008 of over 1700 high school students in Boston, MA. Over 5% of students reported carrying a…

  9. Americans Still Overestimate Social Class Mobility: A Pre-Registered Self-Replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Michael W

    2015-01-01

    Kraus and Tan (2015) hypothesized that Americans tend to overestimate social class mobility in society, and do so because they seek to protect the self. This paper reports a pre-registered exact replication of Study 3 from this original paper and finds, consistent with the original study, that Americans substantially overestimate social class mobility, that people provide greater overestimates when made while thinking of similar others, and that high perceived social class is related to greater overestimates. The current results provide additional evidence consistent with the idea that people overestimate class mobility to protect their beliefs in the promise of equality of opportunity. Discussion considers the utility of pre-registered self-replications as one tool for encouraging replication efforts and assessing the robustness of effect sizes.

  10. Americans Still Overestimate Social Class Mobility: A Pre-Registered Self-Replication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael W. Kraus

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Kraus and Tan (2015 hypothesized that Americans tend to overestimate social class mobility in society, and do so because they seek to protect the self. This paper reports a pre-registered exact replication of Study 3 from this original paper and finds, consistent with the original study, that Americans substantially overestimate social class mobility, that people provide greater overestimates when made while thinking of similar others, and that high perceived social class is related to greater overestimates. The current results provide additional evidence consistent with the idea that people overestimate class mobility to protect their beliefs in the promise of equality of opportunity. Discussion considers the utility of pre-registered self-replications as one tool for encouraging replication efforts and assessing the robustness of effect sizes.

  11. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  12. Total body surface area overestimation at referring institutions in children transferred to a burn center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swords, Douglas S; Hadley, Edmund D; Swett, Katrina R; Pranikoff, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Total body surface area (TBSA) burned is a powerful descriptor of burn severity and influences the volume of resuscitation required in burn patients. The incidence and severity of TBSA overestimation by referring institutions (RIs) in children transferred to a burn center (BC) are unclear. The association between TBSA overestimation and overresuscitation is unknown as is that between TBSA overestimation and outcome. The trauma registry at a BC was queried over 7.25 years for children presenting with burns. TBSA estimate at RIs and BC, total fluid volume given before arrival at a BC, demographic variables, and clinical variables were reviewed. Nearly 20 per cent of children arrived from RIs without TBSA estimation. Nearly 50 per cent were overestimated by 5 per cent or greater TBSA and burn sizes were overestimated by up to 44 per cent TBSA. Average TBSA measured at BC was 9.5 ± 8.3 per cent compared with 15.5 ± 11.8 per cent as measured at RIs (P < 0.0001). Burns between 10 and 19.9 per cent TBSA were overestimated most often and by the greatest amounts. There was a statistically significant relationship between overestimation of TBSA by 5 per cent or greater and overresuscitation by 10 mL/kg or greater (P = 0.02). No patient demographic or clinical factors were associated with TBSA overestimation. Education efforts aimed at emergency department physicians regarding the importance of always calculating TBSA as well as the mechanics of TBSA estimation and calculating resuscitation volume are needed. Further studies should evaluate the association of TBSA overestimation by RIs with adverse outcomes and complications in the burned child.

  13. Calcified Plaque of Coronary Artery: Factors Influencing Overestimation of Coronary Artery Stenosis on Coronary CT Angiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mok Hee; Kim, Yun Hyeon; Choi, Song; Seon, Hyun Ju; Jeong, Gwang Woo; Park, Jin Gyoon; Kang, Heoung Keun; Ko, Joon Seok

    2010-01-01

    To assess the influence of calcified plaque characteristics on the overestimation of coronary arterial stenosis on a coronary CT angiography (CCTA). The study included 271 coronary arteries with calcified plaques identified by CCTA, and based on 928 coronary arteries from 232 patients who underwent both CCTA and invasive coronary angiography (ICA). Individual coronary arteries were classified into two groups by agreement based on the degree of stenosis from each CCTA and ICA: 1) group A includes patients with concordant CCTA and ICA results and, 2) group B includes patients with an overestimation of CCTA compared to ICA. Parameters including total calcium score, calcium score of an individual coronary artery, calcium burden number of an individual coronary artery, and the density of each calcified plaque (calcium score / number of calcium burden) for each individual coronary artery were compared between the two groups. Of the 271 coronary arteries, 164 (60.5%) were overestimated on CCTA. The left anterior descending artery (LAD) had a significantly low rate of overestimation (47.1%) compared to the other coronary arteries (p=0.001). No significant differences for total calcium score, calcium score of individual coronary artery, and the density of each calcified plaque from individual coronary arteries between two groups was observed. However, a decreasing tendency for the rate of overestimation on CCTA was observed with an increase in calcium burden of individual coronary arteries (p<0.05). The evaluation of coronary arteries suggests that the degree of coronary arterial stenosis had a tendency to be overestimated by calcified plaques on CCTA. However, the rate of overestimation for the degree of coronary arterial stenosis by calcified plaques was not significantly influenced by total calcium score, calcium score of individual coronary artery, and density of each calcified plaque

  14. Forgetting to remember our experiences: People overestimate how much they will retrospect about personal events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Stephanie; Meyvis, Tom

    2017-12-01

    People value experiences in part because of the memories they create. Yet, we find that people systematically overestimate how much they will retrospect about their experiences. This overestimation results from people focusing on their desire to retrospect about experiences, while failing to consider the experience's limited enduring accessibility in memory. Consistent with this view, we find that desirability is a stronger predictor of forecasted retrospection than it is of reported retrospection, resulting in greater overestimation when the desirability of retrospection is higher. Importantly, the desire to retrospect does not change over time. Instead, past experiences become less top-of-mind over time and, as a result, people simply forget to remember. In line with this account, our results show that obtaining physical reminders of an experience reduces the overestimation of retrospection by increasing how much people retrospect, bringing their realized retrospection more in line with their forecasts (and aspirations). We further observe that the extent to which reported retrospection falls short of forecasted retrospection reliably predicts declining satisfaction with an experience over time. Despite this potential negative consequence of retrospection falling short of expectations, we suggest that the initial overestimation itself may in fact be adaptive. This possibility and other potential implications of this work are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Lake Wobegon’s Guns: Overestimating Our Gun-Related Competences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Stark

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Lake Wobegon Effect is a general tendency for people to overestimate their own abilities. In this study, the authors conducted a large, nationally-representative survey of U.S. citizens to test whether Americans overestimate their own gun-relevant personality traits, gun safety knowledge, and ability to use a gun in an emergency. The authors also tested how gun control attitudes, political identification, gender, and gun experience affect self-perceptions. Consistent with prior research on the Lake Wobegon Effect, participants overestimated their gun-related competencies. Conservatives, males, and pro-gun advocates self-enhanced somewhat more than their counterparts but this effect was primarily due to increased gun experience among these participants. These findings are important to policymakers in the area of gun use, because overconfidence in one’s gun-related abilities may lead to a reduced perceived need for gun training.

  16. The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepes, Sven; McDaniel, Michael A

    2015-01-01

    Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation.

  17. Peer substance use overestimation among French university students: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dautzenberg Bertrand

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Normative misperceptions have been widely documented for alcohol use among U.S. college students. There is less research on other substances or European cultural contexts. This study explores which factors are associated with alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use misperceptions among French college students, focusing on substance use. Methods 12 classes of second-year college students (n = 731 in sociology, medicine, nursing or foreign language estimated the proportion of tobacco, cannabis, alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking among their peers and reported their own use. Results Peer substance use overestimation frequency was 84% for tobacco, 55% for cannabis, 37% for alcohol and 56% for heavy episodic drinking. Cannabis users (p = 0.006, alcohol (p = 0.003 and heavy episodic drinkers (p = 0.002, are more likely to overestimate the prevalence of use of these consumptions. Tobacco users are less likely to overestimate peer prevalence of smoking (p = 0.044. Women are more likely to overestimate tobacco (p Conclusions Local interventions that focus on creating realistic perceptions of substance use prevalence could be considered for cannabis and alcohol prevention in French campuses.

  18. Head multidetector computed tomography: emergency medicine physicians overestimate the pretest probability and legal risk of significant findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskerville, Jerry Ray; Herrick, John

    2012-02-01

    This study focuses on clinically assigned prospective estimated pretest probability and pretest perception of legal risk as independent variables in the ordering of multidetector computed tomographic (MDCT) head scans. Our primary aim is to measure the association between pretest probability of a significant finding and pretest perception of legal risk. Secondarily, we measure the percentage of MDCT scans that physicians would not order if there was no legal risk. This study is a prospective, cross-sectional, descriptive analysis of patients 18 years and older for whom emergency medicine physicians ordered a head MDCT. We collected a sample of 138 patients subjected to head MDCT scans. The prevalence of a significant finding in our population was 6%, yet the pretest probability expectation of a significant finding was 33%. The legal risk presumed was even more dramatic at 54%. These data support the hypothesis that physicians presume the legal risk to be significantly higher than the risk of a significant finding. A total of 21% or 15% patients (95% confidence interval, ±5.9%) would not have been subjected to MDCT if there was no legal risk. Physicians overestimated the probability that the computed tomographic scan would yield a significant result and indicated an even greater perceived medicolegal risk if the scan was not obtained. Physician test-ordering behavior is complex, and our study queries pertinent aspects of MDCT testing. The magnification of legal risk vs the pretest probability of a significant finding is demonstrated. Physicians significantly overestimated pretest probability of a significant finding on head MDCT scans and presumed legal risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Factors associated with overestimation of asthma control: A cross-sectional study in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereznicki, Bonnie J; Chapman, Millicent P; Bereznicki, Luke R E

    2017-05-01

    To investigate actual and perceived disease control in Australians with asthma, and identify factors associated with overestimation of asthma control. This was a cross-sectional study of Australian adults with asthma, who were recruited via Facebook to complete an online survey. The survey included basic demographic questions, and validated tools assessing asthma knowledge, medication adherence, medicine beliefs, illness perception and asthma control. Items that measured symptoms and frequency of reliever medication use were compared to respondents' self-rating of their own asthma control. Predictors of overestimation of asthma control were determined using multivariate logistic regression. Of 2971 survey responses, 1950 (65.6%) were complete and eligible for inclusion. Overestimation of control was apparent in 45.9% of respondents. Factors independently associated with overestimation of asthma control included education level (OR = 0.755, 95% CI: 0.612-0.931, P = 0.009), asthma knowledge (OR = 0.942, 95% CI: 0.892-0.994, P = 0.029), total asthma control, (OR = 0.842, 95% CI: 0.818-0.867, P addictive (OR = 1.144, 95% CI: 1.017-1.287, P = 0.025), and increased feelings of control over asthma (OR = 1.261, 95% CI: 1.191-1.335), P < 0.001). Overestimation of asthma control remains a significant issue in Australians with asthma. The study highlights the importance of encouraging patients to express their feelings about asthma control and beliefs about medicines, and to be more forthcoming with their asthma symptoms. This would help to reveal any discrepancies between perceived and actual asthma control.

  20. Predictors and overestimation of recalled mobile phone use among children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Denis; Feychting, Maria; Schüz, Joachim; Andersen, Tina Veje; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Prochazka, Michaela; Klæboe, Lars; Kuehni, Claudia E; Tynes, Tore; Röösli, Martin

    2011-12-01

    A growing body of literature addresses possible health effects of mobile phone use in children and adolescents by relying on the study participants' retrospective reconstruction of mobile phone use. In this study, we used data from the international case-control study CEFALO to compare self-reported with objectively operator-recorded mobile phone use. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of level of mobile phone use as well as factors that are associated with overestimating own mobile phone use. For cumulative number and duration of calls as well as for time since first subscription we calculated the ratio of self-reported to operator-recorded mobile phone use. We used multiple linear regression models to assess possible predictors of the average number and duration of calls per day and logistic regression models to assess possible predictors of overestimation. The cumulative number and duration of calls as well as the time since first subscription of mobile phones were overestimated on average by the study participants. Likelihood to overestimate number and duration of calls was not significantly different for controls compared to cases (OR=1.1, 95%-CI: 0.5 to 2.5 and OR=1.9, 95%-CI: 0.85 to 4.3, respectively). However, likelihood to overestimate was associated with other health related factors such as age and sex. As a consequence, such factors act as confounders in studies relying solely on self-reported mobile phone use and have to be considered in the analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. How a 10-day heatwave impacts barley grain yield when superimposed onto future levels of temperature and CO2 as single and combined factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinz Ingvordsen, Cathrine; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2018-01-01

    Heatwaves pose a threat to crop production and are predicted to increase in frequency, length and intensity as a consequence of global warming. Future heatwaves will occur in addition to the ongoing increase of mean temperature and CO2. To test effects of heatwaves superimposed to future climate ...... exposure, leading to a strong decline in the harvest index. Our results strongly emphasize the need to produce heatwave resilient cultivars....

  2. Predictive Validity of Explicit and Implicit Threat Overestimation in Contamination Fear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jennifer S.; Teachman, Bethany A.

    2012-01-01

    We examined the predictive validity of explicit and implicit measures of threat overestimation in relation to contamination-fear outcomes using structural equation modeling. Undergraduate students high in contamination fear (N = 56) completed explicit measures of contamination threat likelihood and severity, as well as looming vulnerability cognitions, in addition to an implicit measure of danger associations with potential contaminants. Participants also completed measures of contamination-fear symptoms, as well as subjective distress and avoidance during a behavioral avoidance task, and state looming vulnerability cognitions during an exposure task. The latent explicit (but not implicit) threat overestimation variable was a significant and unique predictor of contamination fear symptoms and self-reported affective and cognitive facets of contamination fear. On the contrary, the implicit (but not explicit) latent measure predicted behavioral avoidance (at the level of a trend). Results are discussed in terms of differential predictive validity of implicit versus explicit markers of threat processing and multiple fear response systems. PMID:24073390

  3. Overestimation of infant and toddler energy intake by 24-h recall compared with weighed food records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jennifer O; Butte, Nancy F; Mendoza, Patricia M; Wilson, Theresa A; Hodges, Eric A; Reidy, Kathleen C; Deming, Denise

    2008-08-01

    Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls have been used in large surveys of infant and toddler energy intake, but the accuracy of the method for young children is not well documented. We aimed to determine the accuracy of infant and toddler energy intakes by a single, telephone-administered, multiple-pass 24-h recall as compared with 3-d weighed food records. A within-subjects design was used in which a 24-h recall and 3-d weighed food records were completed within 2 wk by 157 mothers (56 non-Hispanic white, 51 non-Hispanic black, and 50 Hispanic) of 7-11-mo-old infants or 12-24-mo-old toddlers. Child and caregiver anthropometrics, child eating patterns, and caregiver demographics and social desirability were evaluated as correlates of reporting bias. Intakes based on 3-d weighed food records were within 5% of estimated energy requirements. Compared with the 3-d weighed food records, the 24-h recall overestimated energy intake by 13% among infants (740 +/- 154 and 833 +/- 255 kcal, respectively) and by 29% among toddlers (885 +/- 197 and 1140 +/- 299 kcal, respectively). Eating patterns (ie, frequency and location) did not differ appreciably between methods. Macronutrient and micronutrient intakes were higher by 24-h recall than by 3-d weighed food record. Dairy and grains contributed the most energy to the diet and accounted for 74% and 54% of the overestimation seen in infants and toddlers, respectively. Greater overestimation was associated with a greater number of food items reported by the caregiver and lower child weight-for-length z scores. The use of a single, telephone-administered, multiple-pass 24-h recall may significantly overestimate infant or toddler energy and nutrient intakes because of portion size estimation errors.

  4. Overestimation of Knowledge About Word Meanings: The “Misplaced Meaning” Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Kominsky, Jonathan F.; Keil, Frank C.

    2014-01-01

    Children and adults may not realize how much they depend on external sources in understanding word meanings. Four experiments investigated the existence and developmental course of a “Misplaced Meaning” (MM) effect, wherein children and adults overestimate their knowledge about the meanings of various words by underestimating how much they rely on outside sources to determine precise reference. Studies 1 & 2 demonstrate that children and adults show a highly consistent MM effect, and that it ...

  5. Prediction Equations Overestimate the Energy Requirements More for Obesity-Susceptible Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLay-Cooke, Rebecca T; Gray, Andrew R; Jones, Lynnette M; Taylor, Rachael W; Skidmore, Paula M L; Brown, Rachel C

    2017-09-13

    Predictive equations to estimate resting metabolic rate (RMR) are often used in dietary counseling and by online apps to set energy intake goals for weight loss. It is critical to know whether such equations are appropriate for those susceptible to obesity. We measured RMR by indirect calorimetry after an overnight fast in 26 obesity susceptible (OSI) and 30 obesity resistant (ORI) individuals, identified using a simple 6-item screening tool. Predicted RMR was calculated using the FAO/WHO/UNU (Food and Agricultural Organisation/World Health Organisation/United Nations University), Oxford and Miflin-St Jeor equations. Absolute measured RMR did not differ significantly between OSI versus ORI (6339 vs. 5893 kJ·d -1 , p = 0.313). All three prediction equations over-estimated RMR for both OSI and ORI when measured RMR was ≤5000 kJ·d -1 . For measured RMR ≤7000 kJ·d -1 there was statistically significant evidence that the equations overestimate RMR to a greater extent for those classified as obesity susceptible with biases ranging between around 10% to nearly 30% depending on the equation. The use of prediction equations may overestimate RMR and energy requirements particularly in those who self-identify as being susceptible to obesity, which has implications for effective weight management.

  6. Are the performance overestimates given by boys with ADHD self-protective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohan, Jeneva L; Johnston, Charlotte

    2002-06-01

    Tested the self-protective hypothesis that boys with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) overestimate their performance to protect a positive self-image. We examined the impact of performance feedback on the social and academic performance self-perceptions of 45 boys with and 43 boys without ADHD ages 7 to 12. Consistent with the self-protective hypothesis, positive feedback led to increases in social performance estimates in boys without ADHD but to decreases in estimates given by boys with ADHD. This suggests that boys with ADHD can give more realistic self-appraisals when their self-image has been bolstered. In addition, social performance estimates in boys with ADHD were correlated with measures of self-esteem and positive presentation bias. In contrast, for academic performance estimates, boys in both groups increased their performance estimates after receiving positive versus average or no feedback, and estimates were not correlated with self-esteem or social desirability for boys with ADHD. We conclude that the self-protective hypothesis can account for social performance overestimations given by boys with ADHD but that other factors may better account for their academic performance overestimates.

  7. Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2015-11-01

    Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

  8. Estimation of quality and yields of products from the process of future national oils indelayed coking units; Estimativa da qualidade e dos rendimentos de produtos de coqueamento a partir do processamento de petroleos nacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filipakis, Sofia D.; Silva, Maria do Socorro A.J. da; Guimaraes, Regina C.L. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    As the importance of the delayed coking process increases in the Brazilian refinery scenario, it is necessary to perform a more detailed evaluation of vacuum residues potential on this kind of process. This work compares the performance of future produced and exported oils residues with those which are references nowadays as delayed coking feeding. This information is essential for the prediction of the future quality and yield of the products generated by this process, and for the determination of the oils value for exportation. For this purpose, a process simulator was used considering the operational conditions of a real delayed coking unit. The carbon residue and asphaltenes ratio from the residues were also evaluated. This simulation demonstrated that most of the future oils will produce a high quality coke from the point of view of crystallinity and metals content, and it will present high contents of both volatile matter and sulphur. The exported oils residues are likely to show good crystallinity. (author)

  9. Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: application to Belgium in the framework of the VOTES and MASC projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Beckers, Veronique; Debusscher, Bos; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,…), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in

  10. Partners' Overestimation of Patients' Pain Severity: Relationships with Partners' Interpersonal Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghaenel, Doerte U; Schneider, Stefan; Broderick, Joan E

    2017-09-26

    The present study examined whether concordance between patients' and their partners' reports of patient pain severity relates to partners' social support and behavioral responses in couples coping with chronic pain. Fifty-two couples completed questionnaires about the patient's pain severity. Both dyad members also rated the partner's social support and negative, solicitous, and distracting responses toward the patient when in pain. Bivariate correlations showed moderate correspondence between patient and partner ratings of pain severity (r = 0.55) and negative (r = 0.46), solicitous (r = 0.47), and distracting responses (r = 0.53), but lower correspondence for social support (r = 0.28). Twenty-eight couples (54%) were concordant in their perceptions of patient pain; partners overestimated pain in 14 couples (27%), and partners underestimated pain in 10 couples (19%). Couple concordance in pain perceptions was not related to patients' reports; however, it significantly predicted partners' reports: Partners who overestimated pain reported giving more social support (β = 0.383, P = 0.016), fewer negative responses (β = -0.332, P = 0.029), and more solicitous responses (β = 0.438, P = 0.016) than partners who were in agreement or who underestimated pain. Partner overestimation of pain severity is associated with partner-reported but not with patient-reported support-related responses. This finding has important clinical implications for couple interventions in chronic pain. © 2017 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  11. Volume-Dependent Overestimation of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hematoma Volume by the ABC/2 Formula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chih-Wei Wang; Chun-Jung Juan; Hsian-He Hsu; Hua-Shan Liu; Cheng-Yu Chen; Chun-Jen Hsueh; Hung-Wen Kao; Guo-Shu Huang; Yi-Jui Liu; Chung-Ping Lo

    2009-01-01

    Background: Although the ABC/2 formula has been widely used to estimate the volume of intracerebral hematoma (ICH), the formula tends to overestimate hematoma volume. The volume-related imprecision of the ABC/2 formula has not been documented quantitatively. Purpose: To investigate the volume-dependent overestimation of the ABC/2 formula by comparing it with computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA). Material and Methods: Forty patients who had suffered spontaneous ICH and who had undergone non-enhanced brain computed tomography scans were enrolled in this study. The ICH volume was estimated based on the ABC/2 formula and also calculated by CAVA. Based on the ICH volume calculated by the CAVA method, the patients were divided into three groups: group 1 consisted of 17 patients with an ICH volume of less than 20 ml; group 2 comprised 13 patients with an ICH volume of 20 to 40 ml; and group 3 was composed of 10 patients with an ICH volume larger than 40 ml. Results: The mean estimated hematoma volume was 43.6 ml when using the ABC/2 formula, compared with 33.8 ml when using the CAVA method. The mean estimated difference was 1.3 ml, 4.4 ml, and 31.4 ml for groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, corresponding to an estimation error of 9.9%, 16.7%, and 37.1% by the ABC/2 formula (P<0.05). Conclusion: The ABC/2 formula significantly overestimates the volume of ICH. A positive association between the estimation error and the volume of ICH is demonstrated

  12. Voltage and pace-capture mapping of linear ablation lesions overestimates chronic ablation gap size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Louisa; Harrison, James; Chubb, Henry; Whitaker, John; Mukherjee, Rahul K; Bloch, Lars Ølgaard; Andersen, Niels Peter; Dam, Høgni; Jensen, Henrik K; Niederer, Steven; Wright, Matthew; O'Neill, Mark; Williams, Steven E

    2018-04-26

    Conducting gaps in lesion sets are a major reason for failure of ablation procedures. Voltage mapping and pace-capture have been proposed for intra-procedural identification of gaps. We aimed to compare gap size measured acutely and chronically post-ablation to macroscopic gap size in a porcine model. Intercaval linear ablation was performed in eight Göttingen minipigs with a deliberate gap of ∼5 mm left in the ablation line. Gap size was measured by interpolating ablation contact force values between ablation tags and thresholding at a low force cut-off of 5 g. Bipolar voltage mapping and pace-capture mapping along the length of the line were performed immediately, and at 2 months, post-ablation. Animals were euthanized and gap sizes were measured macroscopically. Voltage thresholds to define scar were determined by receiver operating characteristic analysis as voltage, pace-capture, and ablation contact force maps. All modalities overestimated chronic gap size, by 1.4 ± 2.0 mm (ablation contact force map), 5.1 ± 3.4 mm (pace-capture), and 9.5 ± 3.8 mm (voltage mapping). Error on ablation contact force map gap measurements were significantly less than for voltage mapping (P = 0.003, Tukey's multiple comparisons test). Chronically, voltage mapping and pace-capture mapping overestimated macroscopic gap size by 11.9 ± 3.7 and 9.8 ± 3.5 mm, respectively. Bipolar voltage and pace-capture mapping overestimate the size of chronic gap formation in linear ablation lesions. The most accurate estimation of chronic gap size was achieved by analysis of catheter-myocardium contact force during ablation.

  13. Overestimation of closed-chamber soil CO2 effluxes at low atmospheric turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brændholt, Andreas; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Ibrom, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    Soil respiration (R-s) is an important component of ecosystem carbon balance, and accurate quantification of the diurnal and seasonal variation of R-s is crucial for a correct interpretation of the response of R-s to biotic and abiotic factors, as well as for estimating annual soil CO2 efflux rates...... be eliminated if proper mixing of air is ensured, and indeed the use of fans removed the overestimation of R-s rates during low u(*). Artificial turbulent air mixing may thus provide a method to overcome the problems of using closed-chamber gas-exchange measurement techniques during naturally occurring low...

  14. Overestimation of body size in eating disorders and its association to body-related avoidance behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossbeck-Elsebusch, Anna N; Waldorf, Manuel; Legenbauer, Tanja; Bauer, Anika; Cordes, Martin; Vocks, Silja

    2015-06-01

    Body-related avoidance behavior, e.g., not looking in the mirror, is a common feature of eating disorders. It is assumed that it leads to insufficient feedback concerning one's own real body form and might thus contribute to distorted mental representation of one's own body. However, this assumption still lacks empirical foundation. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between misperception of one's own body and body-related avoidance behavior in N = 78 female patients with Bulimia nervosa and eating disorder not otherwise specified. Body-size misperception was assessed using a digital photo distortion technique based on an individual picture of each participant which was taken in a standardized suit. In a regression analysis with body-related avoidance behavior, body mass index and weight and shape concerns as predictors, only body-related avoidance behavior significantly contributed to the explanation of body-size overestimation. This result supports the theoretical assumption that body-related avoidance behavior makes body-size overestimation more likely.

  15. Debate on the Chernobyl disaster: on the causes of Chernobyl overestimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jargin, Sergei V

    2012-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident, many publications appeared that overestimated its medical consequences. Some of them are discussed in this article. Among the motives for the overestimation were anti-nuclear sentiments, widespread among some adherents of the Green movement; however, their attitude has not been wrong: nuclear facilities should have been prevented from spreading to overpopulated countries governed by unstable regimes and regions where conflicts and terrorism cannot be excluded. The Chernobyl accident has hindered worldwide development of atomic industry. Today, there are no alternatives to nuclear power: nonrenewable fossil fuels will become more and more expensive, contributing to affluence in the oil-producing countries and poverty in the rest of the world. Worldwide introduction of nuclear energy will become possible only after a concentration of authority within an efficient international executive. This will enable construction of nuclear power plants in optimally suitable places, considering all sociopolitical, geographic, geologic, and other preconditions. In this way, accidents such as that in Japan in 2011 will be prevented.

  16. Reassessment of soil erosion on the Chinese loess plateau: were rates overestimated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jianlin; Govers, Gerard

    2014-05-01

    Several studies have estimated regional soil erosion rates (rill and interrill erosion) on the Chinese loess plateau using an erosion model such as the RUSLE (e.g. Fu et al., 2011; Sun et al., 2013). However, the question may be asked whether such estimates are realistic: studies have shown that the use of models for large areas may lead to significant overestimations (Quinton et al., 2010). In this study, soil erosion rates on the Chinese loess plateau were reevaluated by using field measured soil erosion data from erosion plots (216 plots and 1380 plot years) in combination with a careful extrapolation procedure. Data analysis showed that the relationship between slope and erosion rate on arable land could be well described by erosion-slope relationships reported in the literature (Nearing, 1997). The increase of average erosion rate with slope length was clearly degressive, as could be expected from earlier research. However, for plots with permanent vegetation (grassland, shrub, forest) no relationship was found between erosion rates and slope gradient and/or slope length. This is important, as it implies that spatial variations of erosion on permanently vegetated areas cannot be modeled using topographical functions derived from observations on arable land. Application of relationships developed for arable land will lead to a significant overestimation of soil erosion rates. Based on our analysis we estimate the total soil erosion rate in the Chinese Loess plateau averages ca. 6.78 t ha-1 yr-1 for the whole loess plateau, resulting in a total sediment mobilisation of ca. 0.38 Gt yr-1. Erosion rates on arable land average ca. 15.10 t ha-1 yr-1. These estimates are 2 to 3 times lower than previously published estimates. The main reason why previous estimates are likely to be too high is that the values of (R)USLE parameters such as K, P and LS factor were overestimated. Overestimations of the K factor are due to the reliance of nomograph calculations, resulting

  17. A review of the UK methodology used for monitoring cigarette smoke yields, aspects of analytical data variability and their impact on current and future regulatory compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purkis, Stephen W; Drake, Linda; Meger, Michael; Mariner, Derek C

    2010-04-01

    The European Union (EU) requires that tobacco products are regulated by Directive 2001/37/EC through testing and verification of results on the basis of standards developed by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). In 2007, the European Commission provided guidance to EU Member States by issuing criteria for competent laboratories which includes accreditation to ISO 17025:2005. Another criterion requires regular laboratory participation in collaborative studies that predict the measurement tolerance that must be observed to conclude that test results on any particular product are different. However, differences will always occur when comparing overall data across products between different laboratories. A forum for technical discussion between laboratories testing products as they are manufactured and a Government appointed verification laboratory gives transparency, ensures consistency and reduces apparent compliance issues to the benefit of all parties. More than 30years ago, such a forum was set up in the UK that continued until 2007 and will be described in this document. Anticipating further testing requirements in future product regulation as proposed by the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, cooperation between accredited laboratories, whether for testing or verification, should be established to share know-how, to ensure a standardised level of quality and to offer competent technical dialogue in the best interest of regulators and manufacturers alike. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Sensitivity of CERES-Maize yield simulation to the selected weather data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zalud, Z.; Stastna, M.

    2000-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of selected weather data runs after successful parametrization and validation of the CERES-Maize simulation model. Estimation of the potential yield has been carried out during the long term experiment (1980-1997) as well as the estimation of influence of meteorological parameters on the simulation results for the water-limited yield. 10 % under and over stimulation of global radiation and precipitation as well as increasing and decreasing temperature by 1 deg C on simulated potential and water-limited yield have been done. In most of the years, air temperature underestimation resulted in a higher simulated grain yield and overstimulation shown a lower yield for water limited level. Overestimation of precipitation during wet days in growing period of the maize leads to an increase of amount of water available for the plant and to increase the yield. Underestimation of global radiation by 10 % resulted in a decline in simulated grain yield from -8.8 to -9.9 %. The overestimation caused increase of the yield from 7.8 to 10 %. Overestimation by 10 % resulted in a slight underestimation of the yield in low yielding years and underestimation of global radiation by 10 % in overestimation of the yield. The effect was opposite in high yielding years

  19. Overestimation of organic phosphorus in wetland soils by alkaline extraction and molybdate colorimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Benjamin L; Newman, Susan; Reddy, K Ramesh

    2006-05-15

    Accurate information on the chemical nature of soil phosphorus is essential for understanding its bioavailability and fate in wetland ecosystems. Solution phosphorus-31 nuclear magnetic resonance (31P NMR) spectroscopy was used to assess the conventional colorimetric procedure for phosphorus speciation in alkaline extracts of organic soils from the Florida Everglades. Molybdate colorimetry markedly overestimated organic phosphorus by between 30 and 54% compared to NMR spectroscopy. This was due in large part to the association of inorganic phosphate with organic matter, although the error was exacerbated in some samples by the presence of pyrophosphate, an inorganic polyphosphate that is not detected by colorimetry. The results have important implications for our understanding of phosphorus biogeochemistry in wetlands and suggest that alkaline extraction and solution 31p NMR spectroscopy is the only accurate method for quantifying organic phosphorus in wetland soils.

  20. Overestimation of Knowledge About Word Meanings: The “Misplaced Meaning” Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kominsky, Jonathan F.; Keil, Frank C.

    2014-01-01

    Children and adults may not realize how much they depend on external sources in understanding word meanings. Four experiments investigated the existence and developmental course of a “Misplaced Meaning” (MM) effect, wherein children and adults overestimate their knowledge about the meanings of various words by underestimating how much they rely on outside sources to determine precise reference. Studies 1 & 2 demonstrate that children and adults show a highly consistent MM effect, and that it is stronger in young children. Study 3 demonstrates that adults are explicitly aware of the availability of outside knowledge, and that this awareness may be related to the strength of the MM effect. Study 4 rules out general overconfidence effects by examining a metalinguistic task in which adults are well-calibrated. PMID:24890038

  1. Extrinsic value orientation and affective forecasting: overestimating the rewards, underestimating the costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Kennon M; Gunz, Alexander; Nichols, Charles P; Ferguson, Yuna

    2010-02-01

    We examined affective forecasting errors as a possible explanation of the perennial appeal of extrinsic values and goals. Study 1 found that although people relatively higher in extrinsic (money, fame, image) compared to intrinsic (growth, intimacy, community) value orientation (REVO) are less happy, they nevertheless believe that attaining extrinsic goals offers a strong potential route to happiness. Study 2's longitudinal experimental design randomly assigned participants to pursue either 3 extrinsic or 3 intrinsic goals over 4 weeks, and REVO again predicted stronger forecasts regarding extrinsic goals. However, not even extrinsically oriented participants gained well-being benefits from attaining extrinsic goals, whereas all participants tended to gain in happiness from attaining intrinsic goals. Study 3 showed that the effect of REVO on forecasts is mediated by extrinsic individuals' belief that extrinsic goals will satisfy autonomy and competence needs. It appears that some people overestimate the emotional benefits of achieving extrinsic goals, to their potential detriment.

  2. Overestimation of test performance by ROC analysis: Effect of small sample size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeley, G.W.; Borgstrom, M.C.; Patton, D.D.; Myers, K.J.; Barrett, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    New imaging systems are often observer-rated by ROC techniques. For practical reasons the number of different images, or sample size (SS), is kept small. Any systematic bias due to small SS would bias system evaluation. The authors set about to determine whether the area under the ROC curve (AUC) would be systematically biased by small SS. Monte Carlo techniques were used to simulate observer performance in distinguishing signal (SN) from noise (N) on a 6-point scale; P(SN) = P(N) = .5. Four sample sizes (15, 25, 50 and 100 each of SN and N), three ROC slopes (0.8, 1.0 and 1.25), and three intercepts (0.8, 1.0 and 1.25) were considered. In each of the 36 combinations of SS, slope and intercept, 2000 runs were simulated. Results showed a systematic bias: the observed AUC exceeded the expected AUC in every one of the 36 combinations for all sample sizes, with the smallest sample sizes having the largest bias. This suggests that evaluations of imaging systems using ROC curves based on small sample size systematically overestimate system performance. The effect is consistent but subtle (maximum 10% of AUC standard deviation), and is probably masked by the s.d. in most practical settings. Although there is a statistically significant effect (F = 33.34, P<0.0001) due to sample size, none was found for either the ROC curve slope or intercept. Overestimation of test performance by small SS seems to be an inherent characteristic of the ROC technique that has not previously been described

  3. Back-calculating baseline creatinine overestimates prevalence of acute kidney injury with poor sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kork, F; Balzer, F; Krannich, A; Bernardi, M H; Eltzschig, H K; Jankowski, J; Spies, C

    2017-03-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is diagnosed by a 50% increase in creatinine. For patients without a baseline creatinine measurement, guidelines suggest estimating baseline creatinine by back-calculation. The aim of this study was to evaluate different glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equations and different GFR assumptions for back-calculating baseline creatinine as well as the effect on the diagnosis of AKI. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology (CKD-EPI) and the Mayo quadratic (MQ) equation were evaluated to estimate baseline creatinine, each under the assumption of either a fixed GFR of 75 mL min -1  1.73 m -2 or an age-adjusted GFR. Estimated baseline creatinine, diagnoses and severity stages of AKI based on estimated baseline creatinine were compared to measured baseline creatinine and corresponding diagnoses and severity stages of AKI. The data of 34 690 surgical patients were analysed. Estimating baseline creatinine overestimated baseline creatinine. Diagnosing AKI based on estimated baseline creatinine had only substantial agreement with AKI diagnoses based on measured baseline creatinine [Cohen's κ ranging from 0.66 (95% CI 0.65-0.68) to 0.77 (95% CI 0.76-0.79)] and overestimated AKI prevalence with fair sensitivity [ranging from 74.3% (95% CI 72.3-76.2) to 90.1% (95% CI 88.6-92.1)]. Staging AKI severity based on estimated baseline creatinine had moderate agreement with AKI severity based on measured baseline creatinine [Cohen's κ ranging from 0.43 (95% CI 0.42-0.44) to 0.53 (95% CI 0.51-0.55)]. Diagnosing AKI and staging AKI severity on the basis of estimated baseline creatinine in surgical patients is not feasible. Patients at risk for post-operative AKI should have a pre-operative creatinine measurement to adequately assess post-operative AKI. © 2016 Scandinavian Physiological Society. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Existing creatinine-based equations overestimate glomerular filtration rate in Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek; Yadav, Ashok Kumar; Yasuda, Yoshinari; Horio, Masaru; Kumar, Vinod; Sahni, Nancy; Gupta, Krishan L; Matsuo, Seiichi; Kohli, Harbir Singh; Jha, Vivekanand

    2018-02-01

    Accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is important for diagnosis and risk stratification in chronic kidney disease and for selection of living donors. Ethnic differences have required correction factors in the originally developed creatinine-based GFR estimation equations for populations around the world. Existing equations have not been validated in the vegetarian Indian population. We examined the performance of creatinine and cystatin-based GFR estimating equations in Indians. GFR was measured by urinary clearance of inulin. Serum creatinine was measured using IDMS-traceable Jaffe's and enzymatic assays, and cystatin C by colloidal gold immunoassay. Dietary protein intake was calculated by measuring urinary nitrogen appearance. Bias, precision and accuracy were calculated for the eGFR equations. A total of 130 participants (63 healthy kidney donors and 67 with CKD) were studied. About 50% were vegetarians, and the remainder ate meat 3.8 times every month. The average creatinine excretion were 14.7 mg/kg/day (95% CI: 13.5 to 15.9 mg/kg/day) and 12.4 mg/kg/day (95% CI: 11.2 to 13.6 mg/kg/day) in males and females, respectively. The average daily protein intake was 46.1 g/day (95% CI: 43.2 to 48.8 g/day). The mean mGFR in the study population was 51.66 ± 31.68 ml/min/1.73m 2 . All creatinine-based eGFR equations overestimated GFR (p < 0.01 for each creatinine based eGFR equation). However, eGFR by CKD-EPI Cys was not significantly different from mGFR (p = 0.38). The CKD-EPI Cys exhibited lowest bias [mean bias: -3.53 ± 14.70 ml/min/1.73m 2 (95% CI: -0.608 to -0.98)] and highest accuracy (P 30 : 74.6%). The GFR in the healthy population was 79.44 ± 20.19 (range: 41.90-134.50) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Existing creatinine-based GFR estimating equations overestimate GFR in Indians. An appropriately powered study is needed to develop either a correction factor or a new equation for accurate assessment of kidney function in the

  5. Geometric mean IELT and premature ejaculation: appropriate statistics to avoid overestimation of treatment efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldinger, Marcel D; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Olivier, Berend; Schweitzer, Dave H

    2008-02-01

    The intravaginal ejaculation latency time (IELT) behaves in a skewed manner and needs the appropriate statistics for correct interpretation of treatment results. To explain the rightful use of geometrical mean IELT values and the fold increase of the geometric mean IELT because of the positively skewed IELT distribution. Linking theoretical arguments to the outcome of several selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and modern antidepressant study results. Geometric mean IELT and fold increase of geometrical mean IELT. Log-transforming each separate IELT measurement of each individual man is the basis for the calculation of the geometric mean IELT. A drug-induced positively skewed IELT distribution necessitates the calculation of the geometric mean IELTs at baseline and during drug treatment. In a positively skewed IELT distribution, the use of the "arithmetic" mean IELT risks an overestimation of the drug-induced ejaculation delay as the mean IELT is always higher than the geometric mean IELT. Strong ejaculation-delaying drugs give rise to a strong positively skewed IELT distribution, whereas weak ejaculation-delaying drugs give rise to (much) less skewed IELT distributions. Ejaculation delay is expressed in fold increase of the geometric mean IELT. Drug-induced ejaculatory performance discloses a positively skewed IELT distribution, requiring the use of the geometric mean IELT and the fold increase of the geometric mean IELT.

  6. Plant pathogens as biocontrol agents of Cirsium arvense – an overestimated approach?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Müller

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Cirsium arvense is one of the worst weeds in agriculture. As herbicides are not very effective and not accepted by organic farming and special habitats, possible biocontrol agents have been investigated since many decades. In particular plant pathogens of C. arvense have received considerable interest and have been promoted as “mycoherbicides” or “bioherbicides”. A total of 10 fungi and one bacterium have been proposed and tested as biocontrol agents against C. arvense. A variety of experiments analysed the noxious influence of spores or other parts of living fungi or bacteria on plants while others used fungal or bacterial products, usually toxins. Also combinations of spores with herbicides and combinations of several pathogens were tested. All approaches turned out to be inappropriate with regard to target plant specificity, effectiveness and application possibilities. As yet, none of the tested species or substances has achieved marketability, despite two patents on the use of Septoria cirsii and Phomopsis cirsii. We conclude that the potential of pathogens for biocontrol of C. arvense has largely been overestimated.

  7. Mobility overestimation due to gated contacts in organic field-effect transistors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittle, Emily G.; Basham, James I.; Jackson, Thomas N.; Jurchescu, Oana D.; Gundlach, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Parameters used to describe the electrical properties of organic field-effect transistors, such as mobility and threshold voltage, are commonly extracted from measured current–voltage characteristics and interpreted by using the classical metal oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor model. However, in recent reports of devices with ultra-high mobility (>40 cm2 V−1 s−1), the device characteristics deviate from this idealized model and show an abrupt turn-on in the drain current when measured as a function of gate voltage. In order to investigate this phenomenon, here we report on single crystal rubrene transistors intentionally fabricated to exhibit an abrupt turn-on. We disentangle the channel properties from the contact resistance by using impedance spectroscopy and show that the current in such devices is governed by a gate bias dependence of the contact resistance. As a result, extracted mobility values from d.c. current–voltage characterization are overestimated by one order of magnitude or more. PMID:26961271

  8. Overestimation of own body weights in female university students: associations with lifestyles, weight control behaviors and depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Miso; Lee, Hongmie

    2010-12-01

    The study aimed to analyze the lifestyles, weight control behavior, dietary habits, and depression of female university students. The subjects were 532 students from 8 universities located in 4 provinces in Korea. According to percent ideal body weight, 33 (6.4%), 181 (34.0%), 283 (53.2%), 22 (4.1%) and 13 (2.5%) were severely underweight, underweight, normal, overweight and obese, respectively, based on self-reported height and weight. As much as 64.1% and only 2.4%, respectively, overestimated and underestimated their body weight status. Six overweight subjects were excluded from overestimation group for the purpose of this study, resulting in overestimation group consisting of only underweight and normal weight subjects. Compared to those from the normal perception group, significantly more subjects from the overestimation group were currently smoking (P = 0.017) and drank more often than once a week (P = 0.015), without any significant differences in dietary habits. Despite similar BMIs, subjects who overestimated their own weight statuses had significantly higher weight dissatisfaction (P = 0.000), obesity stress (P = 0.000), obsession to lose weight (P = 0.007) and depression (P = 0.018). Also, more of them wanted to lose weight (P = 0.000), checked their body weights more often than once a week (P = 0.025) and had dieting experiences using 'reducing meal size' (P = 0.012), 'reducing snacks' (P = 0.042) and 'taking prescribed pills' (P = 0.032), and presented 'for a wider range of clothes selection' as the reason for weight loss (P = 0.039), although none was actually overweight or obese. Unlike the case with overestimating one's own weight, being overweight was associated with less drinking (P = 0.035) and exercising more often (P = 0.001) and for longer (P = 0.001) and healthier reasons for weight control (P = 0.002), despite no differences in frequency of weighing and depression. The results showed that weight overestimation, independent of weight status

  9. Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Zhao

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS, along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively, to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

  10. Overestimation of reliability by Guttman’s λ4, λ5, and λ6, and the greatest lower bound

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterwijk, P.R.; van der Ark, L.A.; Sijtsma, K.; van der Ark, L.A.; Wiberg, M.; Culpepper, S.A.; Douglas, J.A.; Wang, W.-C.

    2017-01-01

    For methods using statistical optimization to estimate lower bounds to test-score reliability, we investigated the degree to which they overestimate true reliability. Optimization methods do not only exploit real relationships between items but also tend to capitalize on sampling error and do this

  11. Adolescent-perceived parent and teacher overestimation of mathematics ability: Developmental implications for students' mathematics task values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Watt, Helen M G

    2017-07-01

    This study examines whether and how student-perceived parents' and teachers' overestimation of students' own perceived mathematical ability can explain trajectories for adolescents' mathematical task values (intrinsic and utility) controlling for measured achievement, following expectancy-value and self-determination theories. Longitudinal data come from a 3-cohort (mean ages 13.25, 12.36, and 14.41 years; Grades 7-10), 4-wave data set of 1,271 Australian secondary school students. Longitudinal structural equation models revealed positive effects of student-perceived overestimation of math ability by parents and teachers on students' intrinsic and utility math task values development. Perceived parental overestimations predicted intrinsic task value changes between all measurement occasions, whereas utility task value changes only were predicted between Grades 9 and 10. Parental influences were stronger for intrinsic than utility task values. Teacher influences were similar for both forms of task values and commenced after the curricular school transition in Grade 8. Results support the assumptions that the perceived encouragement conveyed by student-perceived mathematical ability beliefs of parents and teachers, promote positive mathematics task values development. Moreover, results point to different mechanisms underlying parents' and teachers' support. Finally, the longitudinal changes indicate transition-related increases in the effects of student-perceived overestimations and stronger effects for intrinsic than utility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Coronal 2D MR cholangiography overestimates the length of the right hepatic duct in liver transplantation donors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bohyun; Kim, Kyoung Won; Kim, So Yeon; Park, So Hyun; Lee, Jeongjin; Song, Gi Won; Jung, Dong-Hwan; Ha, Tae-Yong; Lee, Sung Gyu

    2017-01-01

    To compare the length of the right hepatic duct (RHD) measured on rotatory coronal 2D MR cholangiography (MRC), rotatory axial 2D MRC, and reconstructed 3D MRC. Sixty-seven donors underwent coronal and axial 2D projection MRC and 3D MRC. RHD length was measured and categorized as ultrashort (≤1 mm), short (>1-14 mm), and long (>14 mm). The measured length, frequency of overestimation, and the degree of underestimation between two 2D MRC sets were compared to 3D MRC. The length of the RHD from 3D MRC, coronal 2D MRC, and axial 2D MRC showed significant difference (p < 0.05). RHD was frequently overestimated on the coronal than on axial 2D MRC (61.2 % vs. 9 %; p <.0001). On coronal 2D MRC, four (6 %) with short RHD and one (1.5 %) with ultrashort RHD were over-categorized as long RHD. On axial 2D MRC, overestimation was mostly <1 mm (83.3 %), none exceeding 3 mm or over-categorized. The degree of underestimation between the two projection planes was comparable. Coronal 2D MRC overestimates the RHD in liver donors. We suggest adding axial 2D MRC to conventional coronal 2D MRC in the preoperative workup protocol for living liver donors to avoid unexpected confrontation with multiple ductal openings when harvesting the graft. (orig.)

  13. Coronal 2D MR cholangiography overestimates the length of the right hepatic duct in liver transplantation donors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bohyun [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, 88, Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ajou University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Ajou University Medical Center, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kyoung Won; Kim, So Yeon; Park, So Hyun [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, 88, Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jeongjin [Soongsil University, School of Computer Science and Engineering, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Song, Gi Won; Jung, Dong-Hwan; Ha, Tae-Yong; Lee, Sung Gyu [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Surgery, Division of Hepatobiliary and Liver Transplantation Surgery, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-05-15

    To compare the length of the right hepatic duct (RHD) measured on rotatory coronal 2D MR cholangiography (MRC), rotatory axial 2D MRC, and reconstructed 3D MRC. Sixty-seven donors underwent coronal and axial 2D projection MRC and 3D MRC. RHD length was measured and categorized as ultrashort (≤1 mm), short (>1-14 mm), and long (>14 mm). The measured length, frequency of overestimation, and the degree of underestimation between two 2D MRC sets were compared to 3D MRC. The length of the RHD from 3D MRC, coronal 2D MRC, and axial 2D MRC showed significant difference (p < 0.05). RHD was frequently overestimated on the coronal than on axial 2D MRC (61.2 % vs. 9 %; p <.0001). On coronal 2D MRC, four (6 %) with short RHD and one (1.5 %) with ultrashort RHD were over-categorized as long RHD. On axial 2D MRC, overestimation was mostly <1 mm (83.3 %), none exceeding 3 mm or over-categorized. The degree of underestimation between the two projection planes was comparable. Coronal 2D MRC overestimates the RHD in liver donors. We suggest adding axial 2D MRC to conventional coronal 2D MRC in the preoperative workup protocol for living liver donors to avoid unexpected confrontation with multiple ductal openings when harvesting the graft. (orig.)

  14. Do young novice drivers overestimate their driving skills more than experienced drivers? : different methods lead to different conclusions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Craen, S. de Twisk, D.A.M. Hagenzieker, M.P. Elffers, H. & Brookhuis, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    In this study the authors argue that drivers have to make an assessment of their own driving skills, in order to sufficiently adapt to their task demands in traffic. There are indications that drivers in general, but novice drivers in particular, overestimate their driving skills. However, study

  15. Why overestimate or underestimate chronic kidney disease when correct estimation is possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Broe, Marc E; Gharbi, Mohamed Benghanem; Zamd, Mohamed; Elseviers, Monique

    2017-04-01

    There is no doubt that the introduction of the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines 14 years ago, and their subsequent updates, have substantially contributed to the early detection of different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Several recent studies from different parts of the world mention a CKD prevalence of 8-13%. However, some editorials and reviews have begun to describe the weaknesses of a substantial number of studies. Maremar (maladies rénales chroniques au Maroc) is a recently published prevalence study of CKD, hypertension, diabetes and obesity in a randomized, representative and high response rate (85%) sample of the adult population of Morocco that strictly applied the KDIGO guidelines. When adjusted to the actual adult population of Morocco (2015), a rather low prevalence of CKD (2.9%) was found. Several reasons for this low prevalence were identified; the tagine-like population pyramid of the Maremar population was a factor, but even more important were the confirmation of proteinuria found at first screening and the proof of chronicity of decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), eliminating false positive results. In addition, it was found that when an arbitrary single threshold of eGFR (55 years of age), particularly in those without proteinuria, haematuria or hypertension. It also resulted in a significant 'underdiagnosis' (false negatives) in younger individuals with an eGFR >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and below the third percentile of their age-/gender-category. The use of the third percentile eGFR level as a cut-off, based on age-gender-specific reference values of eGFR, allows the detection of these false positives and negatives. There is an urgent need for additional quality studies of the prevalence of CKD using the recent KDIGO guidelines in the correct way, to avoid overestimation of the true disease state of CKD by ≥50% with potentially dramatic consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  16. Limb Symmetry Indexes Can Overestimate Knee Function After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellsandt, Elizabeth; Failla, Mathew J; Snyder-Mackler, Lynn

    2017-05-01

    Study Design Prospective cohort. Background The high risk of second anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries after return to sport highlights the importance of return-to-sport decision making. Objective return-to-sport criteria frequently use limb symmetry indexes (LSIs) to quantify quadriceps strength and hop scores. Whether using the uninvolved limb in LSIs is optimal is unknown. Objectives To evaluate the uninvolved limb as a reference standard for LSIs utilized in return-to-sport testing and its relationship with second ACL injury rates. Methods Seventy athletes completed quadriceps strength and 4 single-leg hop tests before anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) and 6 months after ACLR. Limb symmetry indexes for each test compared involved-limb measures at 6 months to uninvolved-limb measures at 6 months. Estimated preinjury capacity (EPIC) levels for each test compared involved-limb measures at 6 months to uninvolved-limb measures before ACLR. Second ACL injuries were tracked for a minimum follow-up of 2 years after ACLR. Results Forty (57.1%) patients achieved 90% LSIs for quadriceps strength and all hop tests. Only 20 (28.6%) patients met 90% EPIC levels (comparing the involved limb at 6 months after ACLR to the uninvolved limb before ACLR) for quadriceps strength and all hop tests. Twenty-four (34.3%) patients who achieved 90% LSIs for all measures 6 months after ACLR did not achieve 90% EPIC levels for all measures. Estimated preinjury capacity levels were more sensitive than LSIs in predicting second ACL injuries (LSIs, 0.273; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.010, 0.566 and EPIC, 0.818; 95% CI: 0.523, 0.949). Conclusion Limb symmetry indexes frequently overestimate knee function after ACLR and may be related to second ACL injury risk. These findings raise concern about whether the variable ACL return-to-sport criteria utilized in current clinical practice are stringent enough to achieve safe and successful return to sport. Level of Evidence

  17. Overestimation of Crop Root Biomass in Field Experiments Due to Extraneous Organic Matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirte, Juliane; Leifeld, Jens; Abiven, Samuel; Oberholzer, Hans-Rudolf; Hammelehle, Andreas; Mayer, Jochen

    2017-01-01

    Root biomass is one of the most relevant root parameters for studies of plant response to environmental change, soil carbon modeling or estimations of soil carbon sequestration. A major source of error in root biomass quantification of agricultural crops in the field is the presence of extraneous organic matter in soil: dead roots from previous crops, weed roots, incorporated above ground plant residues and organic soil amendments, or remnants of soil fauna. Using the isotopic difference between recent maize root biomass and predominantly C3-derived extraneous organic matter, we determined the proportions of maize root biomass carbon of total carbon in root samples from the Swiss long-term field trial "DOK." We additionally evaluated the effects of agricultural management (bio-organic and conventional), sampling depth (0-0.25, 0.25-0.5, 0.5-0.75 m) and position (within and between maize rows), and root size class (coarse and fine roots) as defined by sieve mesh size (2 and 0.5 mm) on those proportions, and quantified the success rate of manual exclusion of extraneous organic matter from root samples. Only 60% of the root mass that we retrieved from field soil cores was actual maize root biomass from the current season. While the proportions of maize root biomass carbon were not affected by agricultural management, they increased consistently with soil depth, were higher within than between maize rows, and were higher in coarse (>2 mm) than in fine (≤2 and >0.5) root samples. The success rate of manual exclusion of extraneous organic matter from root samples was related to agricultural management and, at best, about 60%. We assume that the composition of extraneous organic matter is strongly influenced by agricultural management and soil depth and governs the effect size of the investigated factors. Extraneous organic matter may result in severe overestimation of recovered root biomass and has, therefore, large implications for soil carbon modeling and estimations

  18. Evidence for a weakening strength of temperature-corn yield relation in the United States during 1980–2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leng, Guoyong

    2017-12-01

    Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO2 fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (RGST_CY) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in association with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K~-3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in RGST_CY are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, and are well reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period.

  19. Standard duplex criteria overestimate the degree of stenosis after eversion carotid endarterectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benzing, Travis; Wilhoit, Cameron; Wright, Sharee; McCann, P Aaron; Lessner, Susan; Brothers, Thomas E

    2015-06-01

    , 146-432 cm/s) after eCEA that were subsequently examined by axial imaging, the mean percentage stenosis was 8% ± 11% by NASCET, 11% ± 5% by ECST, and 20% ± 9% by CSA criteria. For eight pCEA arteries with PSV >125 cm/s (median velocity, 148 cm/s; interquartile range, 139-242 cm/s), the corresponding NASCET, ECST, and CSA stenoses were 8% ± 35%, 26% ± 32%, and 25% ± 33%, respectively. NASCET internal carotid diameter reduction of at least 50% was noted by axial imaging after two of the eight pCEAs, and the PSV exceeded 200 cm/s in each case. The presence of hemodynamically significant carotid artery restenosis may be overestimated by standard duplex criteria after eCEA and perhaps after pCEA. Insufficient information currently exists to determine what PSV does correspond to hemodynamically significant restenosis. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Were mercury emission factors for Chinese non-ferrous metal smelters overestimated? Evidence from onsite measurements in six smelters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Lei; Wang Shuxiao; Wu Qingru; Meng Yang; Yang Hai; Wang Fengyang; Hao Jiming

    2012-01-01

    Non-ferrous metal smelting takes up a large proportion of the anthropogenic mercury emission inventory in China. Zinc, lead and copper smelting are three leading sources. Onsite measurements of mercury emissions were conducted for six smelters. The mercury emission factors were 0.09–2.98 g Hg/t metal produced. Acid plants with the double-conversion double-absorption process had mercury removal efficiency of over 99%. In the flue gas after acid plants, 45–88% was oxidized mercury which can be easily scavenged in the flue gas scrubber. 70–97% of the mercury was removed from the flue gas to the waste water and 1–17% to the sulfuric acid product. Totally 0.3–13.5% of the mercury in the metal concentrate was emitted to the atmosphere. Therefore, acid plants in non-ferrous metal smelters have significant co-benefit on mercury removal, and the mercury emission factors from Chinese non-ferrous metal smelters were probably overestimated in previous studies. - Highlights: ► Acid plants in smelters provide significant co-benefits for mercury removal (over 99%). ► Most of the mercury in metal concentrates for smelting ended up in waste water. ► Previously published emission factors for Chinese metal smelters were probably overestimated. - Acid plants in smelters have high mercury removal efficiency, and thus mercury emission factors for Chinese non-ferrous metal smelters were probably overestimated.

  1. Decomposing global crop yield variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

    2014-11-01

    Recent food crises have highlighted the need to better understand the between-year variability of agricultural production. Although increasing future production seems necessary, the globalization of commodity markets suggests that the food system would also benefit from enhanced supplies stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability. Here, we develop an analytical expression decomposing global crop yield interannual variability into three informative components that quantify how evenly are croplands distributed in the world, the proportion of cultivated areas allocated to regions of above or below average variability and the covariation between yields in distinct world regions. This decomposition is used to identify drivers of interannual yield variations for four major crops (i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat) over the period 1961-2012. We show that maize production is fairly spread but marked by one prominent region with high levels of crop yield interannual variability (which encompasses the North American corn belt in the USA, and Canada). In contrast, global rice yields have a small variability because, although spatially concentrated, much of the production is located in regions of below-average variability (i.e., South, Eastern and South Eastern Asia). Because of these contrasted land use allocations, an even cultivated land distribution across regions would reduce global maize yield variance, but increase the variance of global yield rice. Intermediate results are obtained for soybean and wheat for which croplands are mainly located in regions with close-to-average variability. At the scale of large world regions, we find that covariances of regional yields have a negligible contribution to global yield variance. The proposed decomposition could be applied at any spatial and time scales, including the yearly time step. By addressing global crop production stability (or lack thereof) our results contribute to the understanding of a key

  2. The economic impact of subclinical ketosis at the farm level: Tackling the challenge of over-estimation due to multiple interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raboisson, D; Mounié, M; Khenifar, E; Maigné, E

    2015-12-01

    Subclinical ketosis (SCK) is a major metabolic disorder that affects dairy cows, and its lactational prevalence in Europe is estimated to be at 25%. Nonetheless, few data are available on the economics of SCK, although its management clearly must be improved. With this in mind, this study develops a double-step stochastic approach to evaluate the total cost of SCK to dairy farming. First, all the production and reproduction changes and all the health disorders associated with SCK were quantified using the meta-analysis from a previous study. Second, the total cost of SCK was determined with a stochastic model using distribution laws as input parameters. The mean total cost of SCK was estimated to be Є257 per calving cow with SCK (95% prediction interval (PI): Є72-442). The margin over feeding costs slightly influenced the results. When the parameters of the model are not modified to account for the conclusions from the meta-analysis and for the prevalence of health disorders in the population without SCK, the mean cost of SCK was overestimated by 68%, reaching Є434 per calving cow (95%PI: Є192-676). This result indicates that the total cost of complex health disorders is likely to be substantially overestimated when calculations use raw results from the literature or-even worse-punctual data. Excluding labour costs in the estimation reduced the SCK total cost by 12%, whereas excluding contributors with scarce data and imprecise calibrations (for lameness and udder health) reduced costs by another 18-20% (Є210, 95%PI=30-390). The proposed method accounted for uncertainty and variability in inputs by using distributions instead of point estimates. The mean value and associated prediction intervals (PIs) yielded good insight into the economic consequences of this complex disease and can be easily and practically used by decision makers in the field while simultaneously accounting for biological variability. Moreover, PIs can help prevent the blind use of economic

  3. Responsibility/Threat Overestimation Moderates the Relationship Between Contamination-Based Disgust and Obsessive-Compulsive Concerns About Sexual Orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, Terence H W; Williams, Monnica T; Siev, Jedidiah; Olatunji, Bunmi O

    2018-05-01

    Disgust has been shown to perform a "disease-avoidance" function in contamination fears. However, no studies have examined the relevance of disgust to obsessive-compulsive (OC) concerns about sexual orientation (e.g., fear of one's sexual orientation transforming against one's will, and compulsive avoidance of same-sex and/or gay or lesbian individuals to prevent that from happening). Therefore, we investigated whether the specific domain of contamination-based disgust (i.e., evoked by the perceived threat of transmission of essences between individuals) predicted OC concerns about sexual orientation, and whether this effect was moderated/amplified by obsessive beliefs, in evaluation of a "sexual orientation transformation-avoidance" function. We recruited 283 self-identified heterosexual college students (152 females, 131 males; mean age = 20.88 years, SD = 3.19) who completed three measures assessing disgust, obsessive beliefs, and OC concerns about sexual orientation. Results showed that contamination-based disgust (β = .17), responsibility/threat overestimation beliefs (β = .15), and their interaction (β = .17) each uniquely predicted OC concerns about sexual orientation, ts = 2.22, 2.50, and 2.90, ps contamination-based disgust accompanied by strong responsibility/threat overestimation beliefs predicted more severe OC concerns about sexual orientation, β = .48, t = 3.24, p contamination-based disgust, and exacerbated by responsibility/threat overestimation beliefs. Treatment for OC concerns about sexual orientation should target such beliefs.

  4. 6 Grain Yield

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    create a favourable environment for rice ... developing lines adaptable to many ... have stable, not too short crop duration with ..... Analysis of variance of the effect of site and season on maturity, grain yield and plant ..... and yield components.

  5. Overestimation of myocardial infarct size on two-dimensional echocardiograms due to remodelling of the infarct zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, B J; Blinston, G E; Jugdutt, B I

    1994-01-01

    To assess the effect of early regional diastolic shape distortion or bulging of infarct zones due to infarct expansion on estimates of regional left ventricular dysfunction and infarct size by two-dimensional echocardiographic imaging. Quantitative two-dimensional echocardiograms from patients with a first Q wave myocardial infarction and creatine kinase infarct size data, and normal subjects, were subjected to detailed analysis of regional left ventricular dysfunction and shape distortion in short-axis images by established methods. Regional left ventricular asynergy (akinesis and dyskinesis) and shape distortion indices (eg, peak [Pk]/radius [ri]) were measured on endocardial diastolic outlines of short-axis images in 43 postinfarction patients (28 anterior and 15 inferior, 5.9 h after onset) and 11 normal subjects (controls). In the infarction group, endocardial surface area of asynergy was calculated by three-dimensional reconstruction of the images and infarct size from serial creatine kinase blood levels. Diastolic bulging of asynergic zones was found in all infarction patients. The regional shape distortion indices characterizing the area between the 'actual' bulging asynergic segment and the derived 'ideal' circular segment (excluding the bulge) on indexed sections were greater in infarct than control groups (Pk/ri 0.31 versus 0, P 0.001). Importantly, the degree of distortion correlated with overestimation of asynergy (r = 0.89, P < 0.001), and the relation between infarct size and total 'ideal' asynergy showed a leftward shift from that with 'actual' asynergy. Early regional diastolic bulging of the infarct zone results in overestimation of regional ventricular dysfunction, especially in patients with anterior infarction. This effect should be considered when assessing effects of therapy on infarct size, remodelling and dysfunction using tomographical imaging.

  6. [Can overestimating one's own capacities of action lead to fall? A study on the perception of affordance in the elderly].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luyat, Marion; Domino, Delphine; Noël, Myriam

    2008-12-01

    Falls are frequent in the elderly and account for medical complications and loss of autonomy. Affordance, a concept proposed by Gibson, can help to understand a possible cause of falls. An affordance is defined as a potentiality of action offered by the environment in relation with both the properties of this environment and the properties of the organism. Most of our daily activities reflect a perfect adjustment between the perception of these potentialities of action and our actual action abilities. In other words, we correctly perceive affordances. However, in the elderly, postural abilities are reduced and equilibration is more unstable. Thus, some falls could result from a misperception of the affordances of posturability. The aim of our study was to test the hypothesis that cognitive overestimation of real postural abilities in the elderly may cause falls. There would be a gap between what the old subjects believe to be able to do and what they actually can do. Fifteen young adults (mean age = 24 years) and fifteen older adults (mean age = 72 years) had to judge if they were able to stand upright on an inclined surface. The exploration of the inclined surface was made in two conditions: visually and also by haptics (without vision with a cane). In a second part, we measured their real postural stance on the inclined surface. The results show that the perceptual judgments were not different among old and young people. However, as expected, the old subjects had lower postural boundaries than the younger. They could stand on lower inclinations of the surface. These results show an involution of the perception of the affordances in aging. They support the hypothesis of a cognitive overestimation of action abilities in the elderly, possibly due to a difficulty to actualize the new limits for action.

  7. Yield stress fluids slowly yield to analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonn, D.; Denn, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    We are surrounded in everyday life by yield stress fluids: materials that behave as solids under small stresses but flow like liquids beyond a critical stress. For example, paint must flow under the brush, but remain fixed in a vertical film despite the force of gravity. Food products (such as

  8. Bond yield curve construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

  9. Measurements of fission yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denschlag, H.O.

    2000-01-01

    After some historical introductory remarks on the discovery of nuclear fission and early fission yield determinations, the present status of knowledge on fission yields is briefly reviewed. Practical and fundamental reasons motivating the pursuit of fission yield measurements in the coming century are pointed out. Recent results and novel techniques are described that promise to provide new interesting insights into the fission process during the next century. (author)

  10. Fission product yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valenta, V.; Hep, J.

    1978-01-01

    Data are summed up necessary for determining the yields of individual fission products from different fissionable nuclides. Fractional independent yields, cumulative and isobaric yields are presented here for the thermal fission of 235 U, 239 Pu, 241 Pu and for fast fission (approximately 1 MeV) of 235 U, 238 U, 239 Pu, 241 Pu; these values are included into the 5th version of the YIELDS library, supplementing the BIBFP library. A comparison is made of experimental data and possible improvements of calculational methods are suggested. (author)

  11. Causes of variation among rice models in yield response to CO2 examined with Free-Air CO2 Enrichment and growth chamber experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Li, Tao; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Baker, Jeffrey; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fugice, Job; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Lafarge, Tanguy; Marcaida Iii, Manuel; Masutomi, Yuji; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruget, Françoise; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wakatsuki, Hitomi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Yulong; Wilson, Lloyd Ted; Yang, Lianxin; Yang, Yubin; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Zhu, Jianguo

    2017-11-01

    The CO 2 fertilization effect is a major source of uncertainty in crop models for future yield forecasts, but coordinated efforts to determine the mechanisms of this uncertainty have been lacking. Here, we studied causes of uncertainty among 16 crop models in predicting rice yield in response to elevated [CO 2 ] (E-[CO 2 ]) by comparison to free-air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and chamber experiments. The model ensemble reproduced the experimental results well. However, yield prediction in response to E-[CO 2 ] varied significantly among the rice models. The variation was not random: models that overestimated at one experiment simulated greater yield enhancements at the others. The variation was not associated with model structure or magnitude of photosynthetic response to E-[CO 2 ] but was significantly associated with the predictions of leaf area. This suggests that modelled secondary effects of E-[CO 2 ] on morphological development, primarily leaf area, are the sources of model uncertainty. Rice morphological development is conservative to carbon acquisition. Uncertainty will be reduced by incorporating this conservative nature of the morphological response to E-[CO 2 ] into the models. Nitrogen levels, particularly under limited situations, make the prediction more uncertain. Improving models to account for [CO 2 ] × N interactions is necessary to better evaluate management practices under climate change.

  12. Influencing Factors on the Overestimation of Self-Reported Physical Activity: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Low Back Pain Patients and Healthy Controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Schaller

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The aim of the present study was to determine the closeness of agreement between a self-reported and an objective measure of physical activity in low back pain patients and healthy controls. Beyond, influencing factors on overestimation were identified. Methods. 27 low back pain patients and 53 healthy controls wore an accelerometer (objective measure for seven consecutive days and answered a questionnaire on physical activity (self-report over the same period of time. Differences between self-reported and objective data were tested by Wilcoxon test. Bland-Altman analysis was conducted for describing the closeness of agreement. Linear regression models were calculated to identify the influence of age, sex, and body mass index on the overestimation by self-report. Results. Participants overestimated self-reported moderate activity in average by 42 min/day (p=0.003 and vigorous activity by 39 min/day (p<0.001. Self-reported sedentary time was underestimated by 122 min/day (p<0.001. No individual-related variables influenced the overestimation of physical activity. Low back pain patients were more likely to underestimate sedentary time compared to healthy controls. Discussion. In rehabilitation and health promotion, the application-oriented measurement of physical activity remains a challenge. The present results contradict other studies that had identified an influence of age, sex, and body mass index on the overestimation of physical activity.

  13. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  14. A cutoff value based on analysis of a reference population decreases overestimation of the prevalence of nocturnal polyuria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Haarst, Ernst P; Bosch, J L H Ruud

    2012-09-01

    We sought criteria for nocturnal polyuria in asymptomatic, nonurological adults of all ages by reporting reference values of the ratio of daytime and nighttime urine volumes, and finding nocturia predictors. Data from a database of frequency-volume charts from a reference population of 894 nonurological, asymptomatic volunteers of all age groups were analyzed. The nocturnal polyuria index and the nocturia index were calculated and factors influencing these values were determined by multivariate analysis. The nocturnal polyuria index had wide variation but a normal distribution with a mean ± SD of 30% ± 12%. The 95th percentile of the values was 53%. Above this cutoff a patient had nocturnal polyuria. This value contrasts with the International Continence Society definition of 33% but agrees with several other reports. On multivariate regression analysis with the nocturnal polyuria index as the dependent variable sleeping time, maximum voided volume and age were the covariates. However, the increase in the nocturnal polyuria index by age was small. Excluding polyuria and nocturia from analysis did not alter the results in a relevant way. The nocturnal voiding frequency depended on sleeping time and maximum voided volume but most of all on the nocturia index. The prevalence of nocturnal polyuria is overestimated. We suggest a new cutoff value for the nocturnal polyuria index, that is nocturnal polyuria exists when the nocturnal polyuria index exceeds 53%. The nocturia index is the best predictor of nocturia. Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Overestimation of Albumin Measured by Bromocresol Green vs Bromocresol Purple Method: Influence of Acute-Phase Globulins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Moreira, Vanessa; Beridze Vaktangova, Nana; Martinez Gago, Maria Dolores; Laborda Gonzalez, Belen; Garcia Alonso, Sara; Fernandez Rodriguez, Eloy

    2018-05-22

    Usually serum albumin is measured with dye-binding assay as bromocresol green (BCG) and bromocresol purple (BCP) methods. The aim of this paper was to examine the differences in albumin measurements between the Advia2400 BCG method (AlbBCG), Dimension RxL BCP (AlbBCP) and capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE). Albumin concentrations from 165 serum samples were analysed using AlbBCG, AlbBCP and CZE. CZE was employed to estimate different serum protein fractions. Influence of globulins on albumin concentration discrepancies between methods was estimated as well as the impact of the albumin method on aCa concentrations. Medcalc was employed for statistical analysis, setting a value of P albumin concentrations. AlbBCG were positively biased versus CZE (3.54 g/L). There was good agreement between CZE and ALbBCP (Albumin results from the BCP and BCG methods may result in unacceptable differences and clinical confusion, especially at lower albumin concentrations. Serum acute phase proteins contribute to overestimating the albumin concentration using AlbBCG.

  16. Soviet test yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergino, Eileen S.

    Soviet seismologists have published descriptions of 96 nuclear explosions conducted from 1961 through 1972 at the Semipalatinsk test site, in Kazakhstan, central Asia [Bocharov et al., 1989]. With the exception of releasing news about some of their peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs) the Soviets have never before published such a body of information.To estimate the seismic yield of a nuclear explosion it is necessary to obtain a calibrated magnitude-yield relationship based on events with known yields and with a consistent set of seismic magnitudes. U.S. estimation of Soviet test yields has been done through application of relationships to the Soviet sites based on the U.S. experience at the Nevada Test Site (NTS), making some correction for differences due to attenuation and near-source coupling of seismic waves.

  17. The prevalence of maternal F cells in a pregnant population and potential overestimation of foeto-maternal haemorrhage as a consequence.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Corcoran, Deirdre

    2014-06-12

    Acid elution (AE) is used to estimate foeto-maternal haemorrhage (FMH). However AE cannot differentiate between cells containing foetal or adult haemoglobin F (F cells), potentially leading to false positive results or an overestimate of the amount of FMH. The prevalence of F cells in pregnant populations remains poorly characterised. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the incidence of HbF-containing red cells in our pregnant population using anti-HbF-fluorescein isothiocyanate flow cytometry (anti-HbF FC) and to assess whether its presence leads to a significant overestimate of FMH.

  18. Anomalies in the Charge Yields of Fission Fragments from the ^{238}U(n,f) Reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J N; Lebois, M; Qi, L; Amador-Celdran, P; Bleuel, D; Briz, J A; Carroll, R; Catford, W; De Witte, H; Doherty, D T; Eloirdi, R; Georgiev, G; Gottardo, A; Goasduff, A; Hadyńska-Klęk, K; Hauschild, K; Hess, H; Ingeberg, V; Konstantinopoulos, T; Ljungvall, J; Lopez-Martens, A; Lorusso, G; Lozeva, R; Lutter, R; Marini, P; Matea, I; Materna, T; Mathieu, L; Oberstedt, A; Oberstedt, S; Panebianco, S; Podolyák, Zs; Porta, A; Regan, P H; Reiter, P; Rezynkina, K; Rose, S J; Sahin, E; Seidlitz, M; Serot, O; Shearman, R; Siebeck, B; Siem, S; Smith, A G; Tveten, G M; Verney, D; Warr, N; Zeiser, F; Zielinska, M

    2017-06-02

    Fast-neutron-induced fission of ^{238}U at an energy just above the fission threshold is studied with a novel technique which involves the coupling of a high-efficiency γ-ray spectrometer (MINIBALL) to an inverse-kinematics neutron source (LICORNE) to extract charge yields of fission fragments via γ-γ coincidence spectroscopy. Experimental data and fission models are compared and found to be in reasonable agreement for many nuclei; however, significant discrepancies of up to 600% are observed, particularly for isotopes of Sn and Mo. This indicates that these models significantly overestimate the standard 1 fission mode and suggests that spherical shell effects in the nascent fission fragments are less important for low-energy fast-neutron-induced fission than for thermal neutron-induced fission. This has consequences for understanding and modeling the fission process, for experimental nuclear structure studies of the most neutron-rich nuclei, for future energy applications (e.g., Generation IV reactors which use fast-neutron spectra), and for the reactor antineutrino anomaly.

  19. Transcriptional responses of zebrafish to complex metal mixtures in laboratory studies overestimates the responses observed with environmental water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Ajay; Ivarsson, Per; Ragnvaldsson, Daniel; Berg, Håkan; Jass, Jana; Olsson, Per-Erik

    2017-04-15

    Metals released into the environment continue to be of concern for human health. However, risk assessment of metal exposure is often based on total metal levels and usually does not take bioavailability data, metal speciation or matrix effects into consideration. The continued development of biological endpoint analyses are therefore of high importance for improved eco-toxicological risk analyses. While there is an on-going debate concerning synergistic or additive effects of low-level mixed exposures there is little environmental data confirming the observations obtained from laboratory experiments. In the present study we utilized qRT-PCR analysis to identify key metal response genes to develop a method for biomonitoring and risk-assessment of metal pollution. The gene expression patterns were determined for juvenile zebrafish exposed to waters from sites down-stream of a closed mining operation. Genes representing different physiological processes including stress response, inflammation, apoptosis, drug metabolism, ion channels and receptors, and genotoxicity were analyzed. The gene expression patterns of zebrafish exposed to laboratory prepared metal mixes were compared to the patterns obtained with fish exposed to the environmental samples with the same metal composition and concentrations. Exposure to environmental samples resulted in fewer alterations in gene expression compared to laboratory mixes. A biotic ligand model (BLM) was used to approximate the bioavailability of the metals in the environmental setting. However, the BLM results were not in agreement with the experimental data, suggesting that the BLM may be overestimating the risk in the environment. The present study therefore supports the inclusion of site-specific biological analyses to complement the present chemical based assays used for environmental risk-assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

    2017-12-01

    The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

  1. Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiangyin; Yang, Wanqin; Qi, Zemin; Liao, Shu; Xu, Zhenfeng; Tan, Bo; Wang, Bin; Wu, Qinggui; Fu, Changkun; You, Chengming; Wu, Fuzhong

    2017-08-01

    Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The upper limit of the cardiorespiratory training zone (40-84%HRR) is overestimated for postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragão, Florbela; Moreira, Maria Helena; Gabriel, Ronaldo Eugénio; Abrantes, Catarina Gavião

    2013-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the heart rate reserve (HRR) at first and second ventilatory thresholds (VT's) in postmenopausal women and compare it with optimal intensity range recommended by the ACSM (40-84%HRR). An additional aim was to evaluate whether a higher aerobic power level corresponded to a higher HRR at VT's. Fifty-eight postmenopausal women participated in this study (aged 48-69). A graded 25 Wmin(-2) cycle ergometer (Monark E839) exercise protocol was performed in order to assess aerobic power. The heart rate and gas-exchange variables were measured continuously using a portable gas analyzer system (Cosmed K4b). The first (VT1) and the second (VT2) VT's were determined by the time course curves of ventilation and O2 and CO2 ventilatory equivalents. A K-means clustering analysis was used in order to identify VO2max groups (cut-off of 30.5 mlkg(-1)min(-1)) and differences were evaluated by an independent sample t-test. Bland-Altman plots were performed to illustrate the agreement between methods. The women's HRR values at VT1 were similar to 40% HRR in both VO2max groups. At VT2 both VO2max groups exhibited negative differences (Plower VO2max group and -16.32% in the higher VO2max group). An upper limit of 84% overestimates the %HRR value for the second ventilatory threshold, suggesting that the cardiorespiratory target zone for this population should be lower and narrower (40-70%HRR). Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Over-estimation of sea level measurements arising from water density anomalies within tide-wells - A case study at Zuari Estuary, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; VijayKumar, K.; Desa, E.S.; Desa, E.; Peshwe, V.B.

    at the mouth of the Zuari estuary, and anomalies were reported at all periods except during peak summer and the onset of the summer monsoon. These anomalies lead to an over-estimation of sea level by a tide-well based gauge. The density difference, delta p...

  4. Olive Cultivation, its Impact on Soil Erosion and its Progression into Yield Impacts in Southern Spain in the Past as a Key to a Future of Increasing Climate Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A. Gómez

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended as a review of the current situation regarding the impact of olive cultivation in Southern Spain (Andalusia on soil degradation processes and its progression into yield impacts, due to diminishing soil profile depth and climate change in the sloping areas where it is usually cultivated. Finally, it explores the possible implications in the regional agricultural policy these results might have. It tries to show how the expansion and intensification of olive cultivation in Andalusia, especially since the late 18th century, had as a consequence an acceleration of erosion processes that can be identified by several indicators and techniques. Experimental and model analysis indicates that the rate of soil erosion accelerated since the expansion of mechanization in the late 1950s. In addition, that unsustainable erosion rates have prevailed in the region since the shift to a more intense olive cultivation systems by the end of the 17th Century. Although agroenvironmental measures implemented since the early 2000s have reduced erosion rates, they are still unsustainably high in a large fraction of the olive area in the region. In the case of olive orchards located in steeper areas with soils of lower water-holding capacity (due to coarse texture and stone content, cumulative erosion has already had a high impact on reducing their potential productivity. This is one of the factors that contributes towards increasing the gap between these less intensified orchards in the mountainous areas and those in the hilly areas with more gentle slopes, such as for instance the lower stretches of the Guadalquivir River Valley. In the case of olive orchards in the hilly areas with better soils, easier access to irrigation and lower production costs per unit, the efforts on soil conservation should be oriented towards limiting off-site damage, since the soil water-storage function of these soils may be preserved in the medium term even at the

  5. Enhancement of HHG yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serrat, C.; Biegert, J.

    2011-01-01

    A static electric field periodically distributed in space controls and enhances the yield in high harmonic generation. The method is relatively simple to implement and allows tuning from the extreme-ultraviolet to soft X-ray. The radiation yield is selectively enhanced due to symmetry breaking induced by a static electric field on the interaction between the driving laser and the medium. The enhanced spectral region is tuned by varying the periodicity of the static electric field. Simulations predict an increase of more than two orders of magnitude for harmonics in the water window spectral range.

  6. Disentangling agronomic and economic yield gaps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, van Michiel; Morley, Tomas; Jongeneel, Roel; Ittersum, van Martin; Reidsma, Pytrik; Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Despite its frequent use in policy discussions on future agricultural production, both the concept of the yield gap and its determinants are understood differently by economists and agronomists. This study provides a micro-level framework that disentangles and integrates agronomic and economic

  7. Brazilian Soybean Yields and Yield Gaps Vary with Farm Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffries, G. R.; Cohn, A.; Griffin, T. S.; Bragança, A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the farm size-specific characteristics of crop yields and yield gaps may help to improve yields by enabling better targeting of technical assistance and agricultural development programs. Linking remote sensing-based yield estimates with property boundaries provides a novel view of the relationship between farm size and yield structure (yield magnitude, gaps, and stability over time). A growing literature documents variations in yield gaps, but largely ignores the role of farm size as a factor shaping yield structure. Research on the inverse farm size-productivity relationship (IR) theory - that small farms are more productive than large ones all else equal - has documented that yield magnitude may vary by farm size, but has not considered other yield structure characteristics. We examined farm size - yield structure relationships for soybeans in Brazil for years 2001-2015. Using out-of-sample soybean yield predictions from a statistical model, we documented 1) gaps between the 95th percentile of attained yields and mean yields within counties and individual fields, and 2) yield stability defined as the standard deviation of time-detrended yields at given locations. We found a direct relationship between soy yields and farm size at the national level, while the strength and the sign of the relationship varied by region. Soybean yield gaps were found to be inversely related to farm size metrics, even when yields were only compared to farms of similar size. The relationship between farm size and yield stability was nonlinear, with mid-sized farms having the most stable yields. The work suggests that farm size is an important factor in understanding yield structure and that opportunities for improving soy yields in Brazil are greatest among smaller farms.

  8. Estimating Corporate Yield Curves

    OpenAIRE

    Antionio Diaz; Frank Skinner

    2001-01-01

    This paper represents the first study of retail deposit spreads of UK financial institutions using stochastic interest rate modelling and the market comparable approach. By replicating quoted fixed deposit rates using the Black Derman and Toy (1990) stochastic interest rate model, we find that the spread between fixed and variable rates of interest can be modeled (and priced) using an interest rate swap analogy. We also find that we can estimate an individual bank deposit yield curve as a spr...

  9. Will energy crop yields meet expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Stephanie Y.; Malins, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    Expectations are high for energy crops. Government policies in the United States and Europe are increasingly supporting biofuel and heat and power from cellulose, and biomass is touted as a partial solution to energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we review the literature for yields of 5 major potential energy crops: Miscanthus spp., Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), Populus spp. (poplar), Salix spp. (willow), and Eucalyptus spp. Very high yields have been achieved for each of these types of energy crops, up to 40 t ha −1  y −1 in small, intensively managed trials. But yields are significantly lower in semi-commercial scale trials, due to biomass losses with drying, harvesting inefficiency under real world conditions, and edge effects in small plots. To avoid competition with food, energy crops should be grown on non-agricultural land, which also lowers yields. While there is potential for yield improvement for each of these crops through further research and breeding programs, for several reasons the rate of yield increase is likely to be slower than historically has been achieved for cereals; these include relatively low investment, long breeding periods, low yield response of perennial grasses to fertilizer, and inapplicability of manipulating the harvest index. Miscanthus × giganteus faces particular challenges as it is a sterile hybrid. Moderate and realistic expectations for the current and future performance of energy crops are vital to understanding the likely cost and the potential of large-scale production. - Highlights: • This review covers Miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, willow, and Eucalyptus. • High yields of energy crops are typically from small experimental plots. • Field scale yields are lower due to real world harvesting losses and edge effects. • The potential for yield improvement of energy crops is relatively limited. • Expectations must be realistic for successful policies and commercial production

  10. Climate Variability and Sugarcane Yield in Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenland, David

    2005-11-01

    )], mean maximum August temperature, mean minimum February temperature, soil water surplus between April and September, and occurrence of autumn (fall) hurricanes, were built into a model to simulate adjusted yield values. The CCV model simulates the yield value with an rmse of 5.1 t ha-1. The mean of the adjusted yield data over the study period was 60.4 t ha-1, with values for the highest and lowest years being 73.1 and 50.6 t ha-1, respectively, and a standard deviation of 5.9 t ha-1. Presumably because of the almost constant high water table and soil water availability, higher precipitation totals, which are inversely related to radiation and temperature, tend to have a negative effect on the yields. Past trends in the values of critical climatic variables and general projections of future climate suggest that, with respect to the climatic environment and as long as land drainage is continued and maintained, future levels of sugarcane yield will rise in Louisiana.

  11. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2018-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

  13. Status of fission yield measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maeck, W.J.

    1979-01-01

    Fission yield measurement and yield compilation activities in the major laboratories of the world are reviewed. In addition to a general review of the effort of each laboratory, a brief summary of yield measurement activities by fissioning nuclide is presented. A new fast reactor fission yield measurement program being conducted in the US is described

  14. The predictive power of yield spreads for future interest rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanggaard, Carsten; Engsted, Tom

    1995-01-01

    Med udgangspunkt i danske nul-kupon obligationsrenter testes 'forventningshypotesen's høj-frekvens implikationer. Resultaterne viser, at op til 1985, hvor pengepolitikken er karakteriseret ved pengemængdestyring, forudsiger rentespændet den fremtidige renteudvikling i overensstemmelse med forvent...

  15. Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gozluklu, Arie; Morin, Annaïg

    This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. Life-cycle patterns in savings behavior in an overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints explain this persistent comovement between financial yields. We argue...... that the slow-evolving time-series covariation due to changing population age structure accounts for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. As a result, by exploiting the demographic information into distant future, the forecasting performance of evaluation models improves. Finally, using...

  16. Variables affecting simulated Be sputtering yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Björkas, C., E-mail: carolina.bjorkas@helsinki.fi; Nordlund, K.

    2013-08-15

    Since beryllium is a strong candidate for the main plasma-facing material in future fusion reactors, its sputtering behaviour plays an important role in predicting the reactor’s life-time. Consensus about the actual sputtering yields has not yet been achieved, as observations are influenced by experimental method and/or studied sample. In this work, the beryllium sputtering due to deuterium and beryllium self-bombardment is analyzed using molecular dynamics simulations. The main methodological aspects that influence the outcome, such as flux and fluence of the bombardment, are highlighted, and it is shown that the simulated yields also depend on the sample structure and deuterium content.

  17. Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Parkes, Ben; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian

    2015-04-01

    Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta-analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Yields and spectroscopy of radioactive isotopes at LOHENGRIN and ISOLDE

    CERN Document Server

    Köster, U

    1999-01-01

    Yields of radioactive nuclei were measured at two facilities: the recoil separator LOHENGRIN at the Institut Laue Langevin in Grenoble and the on-line isotope separator ISOLDE at CERN in Geneva. At LOHENGRIN the yields of light charged particles were measured from thermal neutron induced ternary fission of several actinide targets: 233U, 235U, 239Pu, 241Pu and 245Cm. Thin targets are brought into a high neutron flux. The produced nuclei leave these with the recoil obtained in the fission reaction. They are measured at different energies and ionic charge states. After corrections for the experimental acceptance, the time behaviour of the fission rate and the ionic charge fraction, the yields are integrated over the kinetic energy distribution. Comparing these yields with the predictions of various ternary fission models shows that the most abundant nuclides are well reproduced. On the other hand the models overestimate significantly the production of more "exotic" nuclides with an extreme N/Z ratio. Therefore ...

  19. Development of high yielding mutants in lentil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajput, M.A.; Sarwar, G.; Siddiqui, K.A.

    2001-01-01

    Full text: Lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) locally known as Masoor, is the second most important rabi pulse crop, after chickpea, in Pakistan. It is cultivated on an area of over 63,400 ha, which constitutes about 4.83% of the total area under pulses. The annual production of the crop is 28,200 tones with an average yield of 445 kg/ha. Yield at the national level is very low, about one-half of the world's yield, which is mainly due to non-availability of high yield potential genotypes. Keeping in view the importance of mutants in developing a large number of new varieties, an induced mutations programme was initiated at AEARC, Tandojam during 1987-88, to develop high yielding varieties in lentil. For this, seeds of two lentil varieties, 'Masoor-85' and 'ICARDA-8' had been irradiated with gamma-rays ranging from 100-600 Gy in NIAB, Faisalabad during 1990. Selections were made in M2 on the basis of earliness, plant height, branches/plant and 100 grain weight. After confirming these mutants in M3 they were promoted in station yield trials and studied continuously for three consecutive years (1993- 1995). Overall results revealed that these mutants have consistent improvement of earliness in flowering and maturity. Plant height also increased in all mutant lines except AEL 23/40/91 where reduction in this attribute was observed as compared to parent variety. Mutant lines AEL 49/20/91 and AEL 13/30/91 showed improvement in 100 grain weight. The improvement of some agronomic characters enhanced the yield of mutant lines in comparison to parent varieties (Masoor-85 and ICARDA-8). The diversity in yield over the respective parents was computed from 6.94 to 60.12%. From these encouraging results it is hoped that mutant lines like AEL 12/30/91 and AEL 49/20/91 may serve as potential lentil genotypes in future. (author)

  20. Global evaluation of a semiempirical model for yield anomalies and application to within-season yield forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, Christoph; Wechsung, Frank

    2017-11-01

    Quantifying the influence of weather on yield variability is decisive for agricultural management under current and future climate anomalies. We extended an existing semiempirical modeling scheme that allows for such quantification. Yield anomalies, measured as interannual differences, were modeled for maize, soybeans, and wheat in the United States and 32 other main producer countries. We used two yield data sets, one derived from reported yields and the other from a global yield data set deduced from remote sensing. We assessed the capacity of the model to forecast yields within the growing season. In the United States, our model can explain at least two-thirds (63%-81%) of observed yield anomalies. Its out-of-sample performance (34%-55%) suggests a robust yield projection capacity when applied to unknown weather. Out-of-sample performance is lower when using remote sensing-derived yield data. The share of weather-driven yield fluctuation varies spatially, and estimated coefficients agree with expectations. Globally, the explained variance in yield anomalies based on the remote sensing data set is similar to the United States (71%-84%). But the out-of-sample performance is lower (15%-42%). The performance discrepancy is likely due to shortcomings of the remote sensing yield data as it diminishes when using reported yield anomalies instead. Our model allows for robust forecasting of yields up to 2 months before harvest for several main producer countries. An additional experiment suggests moderate yield losses under mean warming, assuming no major changes in temperature extremes. We conclude that our model can detect weather influences on yield anomalies and project yields with unknown weather. It requires only monthly input data and has a low computational demand. Its within-season yield forecasting capacity provides a basis for practical applications like local adaptation planning. Our study underlines high-quality yield monitoring and statistics as critical

  1. Weed biomass and economic yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum) as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2012-01-24

    154 ... to realize the maximum yield potential of the crop at lower input costs ... only acceptable way for effective weed management in future (Marwat et al., ..... Jarwar AD, Tunio SD, Majeedano HI, Kaisrani MA. (1999). Efficacy.

  2. Effect of Integrated Nutrient Management on Yield and Yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Declining soil fertility is one of the major problems causing yield reduction of barley ... (VC) with inorganic NP on growth, yield and yield components of food barley. ... The experiments were laid out in a randomized complete block design with ...

  3. Yield enhancement with DFM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Seung Weon; Kang, Jae Hyun; Ha, Naya; Kim, Byung-Moo; Jang, Dae-Hyun; Jeon, Junsu; Kim, DaeWook; Chung, Kun Young; Yu, Sung-eun; Park, Joo Hyun; Bae, SangMin; Song, DongSup; Noh, WooYoung; Kim, YoungDuck; Song, HyunSeok; Choi, HungBok; Kim, Kee Sup; Choi, Kyu-Myung; Choi, Woonhyuk; Jeon, JoongWon; Lee, JinWoo; Kim, Ki-Su; Park, SeongHo; Chung, No-Young; Lee, KangDuck; Hong, YoungKi; Kim, BongSeok

    2012-03-01

    A set of design for manufacturing (DFM) techniques have been developed and applied to 45nm, 32nm and 28nm logic process technologies. A noble technology combined a number of potential confliction of DFM techniques into a comprehensive solution. These techniques work in three phases for design optimization and one phase for silicon diagnostics. In the DFM prevention phase, foundation IP such as standard cells, IO, and memory and P&R tech file are optimized. In the DFM solution phase, which happens during ECO step, auto fixing of process weak patterns and advanced RC extraction are performed. In the DFM polishing phase, post-layout tuning is done to improve manufacturability. DFM analysis enables prioritization of random and systematic failures. The DFM technique presented in this paper has been silicon-proven with three successful tape-outs in Samsung 32nm processes; about 5% improvement in yield was achieved without any notable side effects. Visual inspection of silicon also confirmed the positive effect of the DFM techniques.

  4. Do children overestimate the extent of smoking among their peers? A feasibility study of the social norms approach to prevent smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsey, Helen; Owiredu, Elizabeth; Thomson, Heather; Mann, Gemma; Mehta, Rashesh; Siddiqi, Kamran

    2015-02-01

    Social norms approaches (SNA) are based on the premise that we frequently overestimate risk behaviours among our peers. By conducting campaigns to reduce these misperceptions, SNAs aim to reduce risk behaviours. This study examines the extent to which 12 to 13year old pupils overestimate smoking among their peers and explores the appropriateness of using SNA in secondary schools to prevent smoking uptake. The extent of overestimation of smoking among peers was assessed through an on-line SNA questionnaire in five schools (n=595). Based on questionnaire results, pupils developed SNA campaigns in each school. Qualitative methods of focus groups (7), interviews (7) and observation were used to explore in-depth, from the perspective of staff and pupils, the appropriateness and feasibility of the SNA to prevent smoking uptake in secondary schools. A quarter of pupils, 25.9% (95% CI 25.6% to 26.1%) believed that most of their peers smoked, however, only 3% (95% CI 2.8% to 3.3%) reported that they actually did; a difference of 22.9% (95% CI 19.1% to 26.6%). Self-reported smoking was not significantly different between schools (X(2)=8.7 p=0.064), however, perceptions of year group smoking was significantly different across schools (X(2)=63.9 psmoking among peers in secondary schools, thus supporting a key premise of social norms theory. Implementing SNAs and studying effects is feasible within secondary schools. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Over-estimation of glomerular filtration rate by single injection [51Cr]EDTA plasma clearance determination in patients with ascites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Jens Henrik Sahl; Brøchner-Mortensen, J; Malchow-Møller, A

    1980-01-01

    The total plasma (Clt) and the renal plasma (Clr) clearances of [51Cr]EDTA were determined simultaneously in nine patients with ascites due to liver cirrhosis. Clt (mean 78 ml/min, range 34-115 ml/min) was significantly higher than Clr (mean 52 ml/min, range 13-96 ml/min, P ... fluid-plasma activity ratio of [51Cr]EDTA increased throughout the investigation period (5h). The results suggest that [51Cr]EDTA equilibrates slowly with the peritoneal space which indicates that Clt will over-estimate the glomerular filtration rate by approximately 20 ml/min in patients with ascites...

  6. The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Dolan,

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1 prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2 unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

  7. Overestimation of molecular and modelling methods and underestimation of traditional taxonomy leads to real problems in assessing and handling of the world's biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löbl, Ivan

    2014-02-27

    Since the 1992 Rio Convention on Biological Diversity, the earth's biodiversity is a matter of constant public interest, but the community of scientists who describe and delimit species in mega-diverse animal groups, i.e. the bulk of global biodiversity, faces ever-increasing impediments. The problems are rooted in poor understanding of specificity of taxonomy, and overestimation of quantitative approaches and modern technology. A high proportion of the animal species still remains to be discovered and studied, so a more balanced approach to the situation is needed.

  8. A note on hypoplastic yielding

    OpenAIRE

    Nader, José Jorge

    2010-01-01

    This note discusses briefly the definition of yield surface in hypoplasticity in connection with the physical notion of yielding. The relation of yielding with the vanishing of the material time derivative of the stress tensor and the vanishing of the corotational stress rate is investigated.

  9. Anticipating a possible future Architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Karl

    2004-01-01

    The most radical new feature in the architectural language of form of the future will be the yielding inclination to -yes, perhaps even absent argument for - the use of standards and thereby implementation of mass-produced repetition......The most radical new feature in the architectural language of form of the future will be the yielding inclination to -yes, perhaps even absent argument for - the use of standards and thereby implementation of mass-produced repetition...

  10. The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirantes, Andrés García; Población, Javier; Serna, Gregorio

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes to the commodity pricing literature by consistently modeling the convenience yield with its empirically observed properties. Specifically, in this paper, we show how a four-factor model for the stochastic behavior of commodity prices, with two long- and short-term factors and two additional seasonal factors, may accommodate some of the most important empirically observed characteristics of commodity convenience yields, such as the mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. Based on this evidence, a theoretical model is presented and estimated to characterize the commodity convenience yield dynamics that are consistent with previous findings. We also show that commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields than through futures prices. - Highlights: • Energy commodity convenience yields exhibit mean reversion and stochastic seasonality. • We present a model for convenience yields accounting for their observed characteristics. • Commodity price seasonality is better estimated through convenience yields

  11. Overestimation of heterosexually attributed AIDS deaths is associated with immature psychological defence mechanisms and clitoral masturbation during penile-vaginal intercourse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, S; Costa, R M

    2009-12-01

    Research shows that (1) greater use of immature psychological defence mechanisms (associated with psychopathology) is associated with lesser orgasmic consistency from penile-vaginal intercourse (PVI), but greater frequency of other sexual behaviours and greater condom use for PVI, and (2) unlike the vectors of receptive anal intercourse and punctures, HIV acquisition during PVI is extremely unlikely in reasonably healthy persons. However, the relationship between overestimation of AIDS deaths due to 'heterosexual transmission' (often misunderstood as only PVI), sexual behaviour and mental health has been lacking. Two hundred and twenty-one Scottish women completed the Defense Style Questionnaire, reported past month frequencies of their various sexual activities, and estimated the total number of women who died from AIDS in Scotland nominally as a result of heterosexual transmission in the UK from a partner not known to be an injecting drug user, bisexual or infected through transfusion. The average respondent overestimated by 226,000%. Women providing lower estimates were less likely to use immature psychological defences, and had a lower frequency of orgasms from clitoral masturbation during PVI and from vibrator use. The results indicate that those who perceive 'heterosexual transmission' led to many AIDS deaths have poorer psychological functioning, and might be less able to appreciate PVI.

  12. Biased processing of threat-related information rather than knowledge deficits contributes to overestimation of threat in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moritz, Steffen; Pohl, Rüdiger F

    2009-11-01

    Overestimation of threat (OET) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The present study deconstructed this complex concept and looked for specific deviances in OCD relative to controls. A total of 46 participants with OCD and 51 nonclinical controls were asked: (a) to estimate the incidence rate for 20 events relating to washing, checking, positive, or negative incidents. Furthermore, they were required (b) to assess their personal vulnerability to experience each event type, and (c) to judge the degree of accompanying worry. Later, participants were confronted with the correct statistics and asked (d) to rate their degree of worry versus relief. OCD participants did not provide higher estimates for OCD-related events than healthy participants, thus rendering a knowledge deficit unlikely. The usual unrealistic optimism bias was found in both groups but was markedly attenuated in OCD participants. OCD-related events worried OCD participants more than controls. Confrontation with the correct statistics appeased OCD participants less than healthy participants. Even in the case of large initial overestimations for OCD-related events, correct information appeased OCD participants significantly less than healthy participants. Our results suggest that OCD is not associated with a knowledge deficit regarding OCD-related events but that patients feel personally more vulnerable than nonclinical controls.

  13. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  14. Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

  15. Rice Research to Break Yield Barriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Vivek; Ramamoorthy, Rengasamy; Kohli, Ajay; Kumar, Prakash P.

    2015-10-01

    The world’s population continues to expand and it is expected to cross 9 billion by 2050. This would significantly amplify the demand for food, which will pose serious threats to global food security. Additional challenges are being imposed due to a gradual decrease in the total arable land and global environmental changes. Hence, it is of utmost importance to review and revise the existing food production strategies by incorporating novel biotechnological approaches that can help to break the crop yield barriers in the near future. In this review, we highlight some of the concerns hampering crop yield enhancements. The review also focuses on modern breeding techniques based on genomics as well as proven biotechnological approaches that enable identification and utilization of candidate genes. Another aspect of discussion is the important area of research, namely hormonal regulation of plant development, which is likely to yield valuable regulatory genes for such crop improvement efforts in the future. These strategies can serve as potential tools for developing elite crop varieties for feeding the growing billions.

  16. Systematics in delayed neutron yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohsawa, Takaaki [Kinki Univ., Higashi-Osaka, Osaka (Japan). Atomic Energy Research Inst.

    1998-03-01

    An attempt was made to reproduce the systematic trend observed in the delayed neutron yields for actinides on the basis of the five-Gaussian representation of the fission yield together with available data sets for delayed neutron emission probability. It was found that systematic decrease in DNY for heavier actinides is mainly due to decrease of fission yields of precursors in the lighter side of the light fragment region. (author)

  17. VARIABILITY OF YIELD AND YIELD COMPONENTS IN “EGUSI ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    journal

    Estimate of expected genetic advance in seed yield plant-1 ranged between. 25.90-48.40%. ..... values in fruit and seed yield characters have been reported in culinary melon, ... and Khund, A. 2004. Extent of heterosis and heritability in some.

  18. Response of Yield and Yield Components of Tef [Eragrostis Tef ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The partial budget analysis also indicates that applications of 46 kg. N ha-1 and 10 kg P ha-1 are ..... (1994) indicated that where the grain yield response is negative, yield reduction is primarily caused by a .... An Economic Training. Manual.

  19. On yield gaps and yield gains in intercropping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gou, Fang; Yin, Wen; Hong, Yu; Werf, van der Wopke; Chai, Qiang; Heerink, Nico; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2017-01-01

    Wheat-maize relay intercropping has been widely used by farmers in northwest China, and based on field experiments agronomists report it has a higher productivity than sole crops. However, the yields from farmers’ fields have not been investigated yet. Yield gap analysis provides a framework to

  20. 7755 EFFECT OF NPK FERTILIZER ON FRUIT YIELD AND YIELD ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Win7Ent

    2013-06-03

    Jun 3, 2013 ... peasant farmers in Nigeria. With the increased ... did not significantly (p=0.05) increase the fruit yield nor the seed yield. Key words: NPK fertilizer, Fruit ..... SAS (Statistical Analysis System) Version 9.1. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, ...

  1. SLIFER measurement for explosive yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bass, R.C.; Benjamin, B.C.; Miller, H.M.; Breding, D.R.

    1976-04-01

    This report describes the shorted location indicator by frequency of electrical resonance (SLIFER) system used at Sandia Laboratories for determination of explosive yield of under ground nuclear tests

  2. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  3. Estimation of effects of photosynthesis response functions on rice yields and seasonal variation of CO2 fixation using a photosynthesis-sterility type of crop yield model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneko, D.; Moriwaki, Y.

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a crop production model improvement: the previously adopted Michaelis-Menten (MM) type photosynthesis response function (fsub(rad-MM)) was replaced with a Prioul-Chartier (PC) type function (fsub(rad-PC)). The authors' analysis reflects concerns regarding the background effect of global warming, under simultaneous conditions of high air temperature and strong solar radiation. The MM type function fsub(rad-MM) can give excessive values leading to an overestimate of photosynthesis rate (PSN) and grain yield for paddy-rice. The MM model is applicable to many plants whose (PSN) increases concomitant with increased insolation: wheat, maize, soybean, etc. For paddy rice, the PSN apparently shows a maximum PSN. This paper proves that the MM model overestimated the PSN for paddy rice for sufficient solar radiation: the PSN using the PC model yields 10% lower values. However, the unit crop production index (CPIsub(U)) is almost independent of the MM and PC models because of respective standardization of both PSN and crop production index using average PSNsub(0) and CPIsub(0). The authors improved the estimation method using a photosynthesis-and-sterility based crop situation index (CSIsub(E)) to produce a crop yield index (CYIsub(E)), which is used to estimate rice yields in place of the crop situation index (CSI); the CSI gives a percentage of rice yields compared to normal annual production. The model calculates PSN including biomass effects, low-temperature sterility, and high-temperature injury by incorporating insolation, effective air temperature, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and effects of temperature on photosynthesis. Based on routine observation data, the method enables automated crop-production monitoring in remote regions without special observations. This method can quantify grain production early to raise an alarm in Southeast Asian countries, which must confront climate fluctuation through this era of global

  4. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  5. Residual risk over-estimated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    The way nuclear power plants are built practically excludes accidents with serious consequences. This is attended to by careful selection of material, control of fabrication and regular retesting as well as by several safety systems working independently. But the remaining risk, a 'hypothetic' uncontrollable incident with catastrophic effects is the main subject of the discussion on the peaceful utilization of nuclear power. The this year's 'Annual Meeting on Nuclear Engineering' in Mannheim and the meeting 'Reactor Safety Research' in Cologne showed, that risk studies so far were too pessimistic. 'Best estimate' calculations suggest that core melt-down accidents only occur if almost all safety systems fail, that accidents take place much more slowly, and that the release of radioactive fission products is by several magnitudes lower than it was assumed until now. (orig.) [de

  6. Breeding for Grass Seed Yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boelt, Birte; Studer, Bruno

    2010-01-01

    Seed yield is a trait of major interest for many fodder and amenity grass species and has received increasing attention since seed multiplication is economically relevant for novel grass cultivars to compete in the commercial market. Although seed yield is a complex trait and affected...... by agricultural practices as well as environmental factors, traits related to seed production reveal considerable genetic variation, prerequisite for improvement by direct or indirect selection. This chapter first reports on the biological and physiological basics of the grass reproduction system, then highlights...... important aspects and components affecting the seed yield potential and the agronomic and environmental aspects affecting the utilization and realization of the seed yield potential. Finally, it discusses the potential of plant breeding to sustainably improve total seed yield in fodder and amenity grasses....

  7. Nitrogen rate and plant population effects on yield and yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-12-17

    Gan et al., 2003). Nitrogen increases yield by influencing a variety of agronomic and quality parameters. In general, there was an increase in plant height and dry matter accumulation per plant in soybean (Manral and Saxena, ...

  8. Nitrogen rate and plant population effects on yield and yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-12-17

    Dec 17, 2008 ... density and nitrogen rate increased plant height, lowest pod height, harvest index and seed yield. ... since some combine harvester heads are unable to pick ..... as effected by population density and plant distribution.

  9. Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalan, Ben; Green, Rhys; Balmford, Andrew

    2014-04-05

    Increasing agricultural productivity to 'close yield gaps' creates both perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation. Yield increases often have negative impacts on species within farmland, but at the same time could potentially make it more feasible to minimize further cropland expansion into natural habitats. We combine global data on yield gaps, projected future production of maize, rice and wheat, the distributions of birds and their estimated sensitivity to changes in crop yields to map where it might be most beneficial for bird conservation to close yield gaps as part of a land-sparing strategy, and where doing so might be most damaging. Closing yield gaps to attainable levels to meet projected demand in 2050 could potentially help spare an area equivalent to that of the Indian subcontinent. Increasing yields this much on existing farmland would inevitably reduce its biodiversity, and therefore we advocate efforts both to constrain further increases in global food demand, and to identify the least harmful ways of increasing yields. The land-sparing potential of closing yield gaps will not be realized without specific mechanisms to link yield increases to habitat protection (and restoration), and therefore we suggest that conservationists, farmers, crop scientists and policy-makers collaborate to explore promising mechanisms.

  10. Effects of application boron on yields, yield component and oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was conducted to investigate the effects of five boron (B) doses; 0, 2.5, 5.0, 7.5 and 10.0 kg B ha-1 in B-deficient calcareous soils on yield and some yield components of four sunflower genotypes. Genotypes have shown variations with respect to their responses to B applications. AS-615 and Coban had the ...

  11. Students with Non-Proficient Information Seeking Skills Greatly Over-Estimate Their Abilities. A Review of: Gross, Melissa, and Don Latham.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Herron

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective – The objective of this study is an investigation of the relationship between students’ self-assessment of their information literacy skills and their actual skill level, as well as an analysis of whether library anxiety is related to information skill attainment. Design – Quantitative research design (Information Literacy Test (ILT, Library Anxiety Scale (LAS, pre and post surveys.Setting – Florida State University, United States.Subjects – Students, incoming freshmen.Methods – Information literacy skills were measured using the Information Literacy Test (ILT, presenting subjects with 65 multiple choice items designed around four of the five ACRL information literacy standards, in which students were expectedto: 1 determine the nature and extent of the information needed; 2 access needed information effectively and efficiently; 3 evaluate information and its sources critically and incorporates selected information into his/her knowledge base system; 4 understand many of the economic, legal and social issues surrounding the use of information and accesses and uses information ethically and legally. The ILT categorized participant scores as non-proficient(Main Results – The main aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that students who test non-proficient on an information literacy test tend to overestimate their competency to a higher degree than proficient and advanced students. In the pre- and post-surveys, the students were asked to estimate their performance onthe ILT in terms of the expected percentage of questions they would answer correctly, the number of questions they expected to answer correctly, and how their performance on the ILT would compare toothers taking the test (in percentage. The results of the study show that all students overestimate their abilities, both in terms of performance and relative performance, in the pre-survey. The estimated percentage correct answers for the whole group was 75%, but

  12. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, Senthold; Cammarano, Davide; Basso, Bruno; Chung, Uran; Alderman, Phillip D; Sonder, Kai; Reynolds, Matthew; Lobell, David B

    2017-06-01

    Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield-temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security 'hot spots'. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Fission yield measurements at IGISOL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantz, M.; Al-Adili, A.; Gorelov, D.; Jokinen, A.; Kolhinen, V. S.; Mattera, A.; Moore, I.; Penttilä, H.; Pomp, S.; Prokofiev, A. V.; Rakopoulos, V.; Rinta-Antila, S.; Simutkin, V.; Solders, A.

    2016-06-01

    The fission product yields are an important characteristic of the fission process. In fundamental physics, knowledge of the yield distributions is needed to better understand the fission process. For nuclear energy applications good knowledge of neutroninduced fission-product yields is important for the safe and efficient operation of nuclear power plants. With the Ion Guide Isotope Separator On-Line (IGISOL) technique, products of nuclear reactions are stopped in a buffer gas and then extracted and separated by mass. Thanks to the high resolving power of the JYFLTRAP Penning trap, at University of Jyväskylä, fission products can be isobarically separated, making it possible to measure relative independent fission yields. In some cases it is even possible to resolve isomeric states from the ground state, permitting measurements of isomeric yield ratios. So far the reactions U(p,f) and Th(p,f) have been studied using the IGISOL-JYFLTRAP facility. Recently, a neutron converter target has been developed utilizing the Be(p,xn) reaction. We here present the IGISOL-technique for fission yield measurements and some of the results from the measurements on proton induced fission. We also present the development of the neutron converter target, the characterization of the neutron field and the first tests with neutron-induced fission.

  14. Fission yield measurements at IGISOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lantz M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The fission product yields are an important characteristic of the fission process. In fundamental physics, knowledge of the yield distributions is needed to better understand the fission process. For nuclear energy applications good knowledge of neutroninduced fission-product yields is important for the safe and efficient operation of nuclear power plants. With the Ion Guide Isotope Separator On-Line (IGISOL technique, products of nuclear reactions are stopped in a buffer gas and then extracted and separated by mass. Thanks to the high resolving power of the JYFLTRAP Penning trap, at University of Jyväskylä, fission products can be isobarically separated, making it possible to measure relative independent fission yields. In some cases it is even possible to resolve isomeric states from the ground state, permitting measurements of isomeric yield ratios. So far the reactions U(p,f and Th(p,f have been studied using the IGISOL-JYFLTRAP facility. Recently, a neutron converter target has been developed utilizing the Be(p,xn reaction. We here present the IGISOL-technique for fission yield measurements and some of the results from the measurements on proton induced fission. We also present the development of the neutron converter target, the characterization of the neutron field and the first tests with neutron-induced fission.

  15. Overestimation of on-road air quality surveying data measured with a mobile laboratory caused by exhaust plumes of a vehicle ahead in dense traffic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sang-Hee; Kwak, Kyung-Hwan; Bae, Gwi-Nam; Kim, Kyung Hwan; Kim, Chang Hyeok; Yook, Se-Jin; Jeon, Sangzin; Kwon, Sangil; Kim, Jeongsoo; Lee, Seung-Bok

    2016-11-01

    The unintended influence of exhaust plumes emitted from a vehicle ahead to on-road air quality surveying data measured with a mobile laboratory (ML) at 20-40 km h -1 in dense traffic areas was investigated by experiment and life-sized computational fluidic dynamics (CFD) simulation. The ML equipped with variable sampling inlets of five columns by four rows was used to measure the spatial distribution of CO 2 and NO x concentrations when following 5-20 m behind a sport utility vehicle (SUV) as an emitter vehicle equipped with a portable emission monitoring system (PEMS). The PEMS measured exhaust gases at the tailpipe for input data of the CFD simulations. After the CFD method was verified with experimental results of the SUV, dispersion of exhaust plumes emitted from a bus and a sedan was numerically analyzed. More dilution of the exhaust plume was observed at higher vehicle speeds, probably because of eddy diffusion that was proportional to turbulent kinetic energy and vehicle speed. The CO 2 and NO x concentrations behind the emitter vehicle showed less overestimation as both the distance between the two vehicles and their background concentrations increased. If the height of the ML inlet is lower than 2 m and the ML travels within 20 m behind a SUV and a sedan ahead at 20 km h -1 , the overestimation should be considered by as much as 200 ppb in NO x and 80 ppm in CO 2 . Following a bus should be avoided if possible, because effect of exhaust plumes from a bus ahead could not be negligible even when the distance between the bus and the ML with the inlet height of 2 m, was more than 40 m. Recommendations are provided to avoid the unintended influence of exhaust plumes from vehicles ahead of the ML during on-road measurement in urban dense traffic conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  17. Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PEI

    2006-01-01

    @@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

  18. Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

    2014-11-15

    When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Are GM Crops for Yield and Resilience Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Matthew J; Nuccio, Michael L; Basu, Shib Sankar

    2018-01-01

    Crop yield improvements need to accelerate to avoid future food insecurity. Outside Europe, genetically modified (GM) crops for herbicide- and insect-resistance have been transformative in agriculture; other traits have also come to market. However, GM of yield potential and stress resilience has yet to impact on food security. Genes have been identified for yield such as grain number, size, leaf growth, resource allocation, and signaling for drought tolerance, but there is only one commercialized drought-tolerant GM variety. For GM and genome editing to impact on yield and resilience there is a need to understand yield-determining processes in a cell and developmental context combined with evaluation in the grower environment. We highlight a sugar signaling mechanism as a paradigm for this approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. ABPM Induced Alarm Reaction: A Possible Cause of Overestimation of Daytime Blood Pressure Values Reduced By Treatment with Beta-Blockers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvo, Francesco; Lonati, Chiara; Albano, Monica; Fogliacco, Paolo; Errani, Andrea Riccardo; Vallo, Cinzia; Berardi, Michele; Meinero, Vito; Muzzulini, Carlo Lorenzo; Morganti, Alberto

    2016-09-01

    Alarm reaction to clinical blood pressure (BP) measurement, defined white-coat effect (WCE), can cause overestimation of true BP values. To assess whether ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) can similarly affect BP values during the initial hours of recording. In 420 ABPMs selected for a first systolic BP (SBP) reading at least 10 mmHg higher than the mean daytime SBP, we calculated mean diurnal and 24 h SBP with and without the exclusion of the two first hours of recording defined as the WCE window (WCEw). We also calculated the magnitude and duration of WCE. These analyses were also performed separately in patients off anti-hypertensive treatment (n = 156), and on treatment with and without the inclusion of beta-blockers (respectively n = 113 and 151). Exclusion of WCEw period reduced mean diurnal and 24 h SBP respectively from 135 ± 0.5 to 133 ± 0.5 (p ABPM is not free from WCE. WCE may affect the overall estimation of BP profile and is longer but less blunted by beta-blockers in females than in males.

  1. Instability of Reference Diameter in the Evaluation of Stenosis After Coronary Angioplasty: Percent Diameter Stenosis Overestimates Dilative Effects Due to Reference Diameter Reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirami, Ryouichi; Iwasaki, Kohichiro; Kusachi, Shozo; Murakami, Takashi; Hina, Kazuyoshi; Matano, Shigeru; Murakami, Masaaki; Kita, Toshimasa; Sakakibara, Noburu; Tsuji, Takao

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To examine changes in the reference segment luminal diameter after coronary angioplasty.Methods: Sixty-one patients with stable angina pectoris or old myocardial infarction were examined. Coronary angiograms were recorded before coronary angioplasty (pre-angioplasty) and immediately after (post-angioplasty), as well as 3 months after. Artery diameters were measured on cine-film using quantitative coronary angiographic analysis.Results: The diameters of the proximal segment not involved in the balloon inflation and segments in the other artery did not change significantly after angioplasty, but the reference segment diameter significantly decreased (4.7%). More than 10% luminal reduction was observed in seven patients (11%) and more than 5% reduction was observed in 25 patients (41%). More than 5% underestimation of the stenosis was observed in 22 patients (36%) when the post-angioplasty reference diameter was used as the reference diameter, compared with when the pre-angioplasty measurement was used and more than 10% underestimation was observed in five patients (8%).Conclusion: This study indicated that evaluation by percent diameter stenosis, with the reference diameter from immediately after angioplasty, overestimates the dilative effects of coronary angioplasty, and that it is thus better to evaluate the efficacy of angioplasty using the absolute diameter in addition to percent luminal stenosis

  2. Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertus, Mark J.

    The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

  3. Impact of capillary rise and recirculation on simulated crop yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kroes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Upward soil water flow is a vital supply of water to crops. The purpose of this study is to determine if upward flow and recirculated percolation water can be quantified separately, and to determine the contribution of capillary rise and recirculated water to crop yield and groundwater recharge. Therefore, we performed impact analyses of various soil water flow regimes on grass, maize and potato yields in the Dutch delta. Flow regimes are characterized by soil composition and groundwater depth and derived from a national soil database. The intermittent occurrence of upward flow and its influence on crop growth are simulated with the combined SWAP-WOFOST model using various boundary conditions. Case studies and model experiments are used to illustrate the impact of upward flow on yield and crop growth. This impact is clearly present in situations with relatively shallow groundwater levels (85 % of the Netherlands, where capillary rise is a well-known source of upward flow; but also in free-draining situations the impact of upward flow is considerable. In the latter case recirculated percolation water is the flow source. To make this impact explicit we implemented a synthetic modelling option that stops upward flow from reaching the root zone, without inhibiting percolation. Such a hypothetically moisture-stressed situation compared to a natural one in the presence of shallow groundwater shows mean yield reductions for grassland, maize and potatoes of respectively 26, 3 and 14 % or respectively about 3.7, 0.3 and 1.5 t dry matter per hectare. About half of the withheld water behind these yield effects comes from recirculated percolation water as occurs in free-drainage conditions and the other half comes from increased upward capillary rise. Soil water and crop growth modelling should consider both capillary rise from groundwater and recirculation of percolation water as this improves the accuracy of yield simulations. This also improves the

  4. Impact of capillary rise and recirculation on simulated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroes, Joop; Supit, Iwan; van Dam, Jos; van Walsum, Paul; Mulder, Martin

    2018-05-01

    Upward soil water flow is a vital supply of water to crops. The purpose of this study is to determine if upward flow and recirculated percolation water can be quantified separately, and to determine the contribution of capillary rise and recirculated water to crop yield and groundwater recharge. Therefore, we performed impact analyses of various soil water flow regimes on grass, maize and potato yields in the Dutch delta. Flow regimes are characterized by soil composition and groundwater depth and derived from a national soil database. The intermittent occurrence of upward flow and its influence on crop growth are simulated with the combined SWAP-WOFOST model using various boundary conditions. Case studies and model experiments are used to illustrate the impact of upward flow on yield and crop growth. This impact is clearly present in situations with relatively shallow groundwater levels (85 % of the Netherlands), where capillary rise is a well-known source of upward flow; but also in free-draining situations the impact of upward flow is considerable. In the latter case recirculated percolation water is the flow source. To make this impact explicit we implemented a synthetic modelling option that stops upward flow from reaching the root zone, without inhibiting percolation. Such a hypothetically moisture-stressed situation compared to a natural one in the presence of shallow groundwater shows mean yield reductions for grassland, maize and potatoes of respectively 26, 3 and 14 % or respectively about 3.7, 0.3 and 1.5 t dry matter per hectare. About half of the withheld water behind these yield effects comes from recirculated percolation water as occurs in free-drainage conditions and the other half comes from increased upward capillary rise. Soil water and crop growth modelling should consider both capillary rise from groundwater and recirculation of percolation water as this improves the accuracy of yield simulations. This also improves the accuracy of the

  5. Evaluation of Yield and Yield Attributes of Five Sweet Potato ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    0087, and TIS 2532.OP.1.13) were evaluated for yield and agronomic performance in Imo State University Farm, Owerri. The experiment was laid out in a randomised complete block design with three replications. The planting density was 33,000 ...

  6. Heterosis and combining ability for grain yield and yield component ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... ranged from 0 to -13% indicating that the hybrids tend to be earlier in maturity than the parents. The mean squares due to GCA for days to maturity, ear diameter, member of kernels per row, 1000 kernel weight and grain yield were significant, indicating the importance of additive genetic variance in controlling these traits.

  7. Rice yield prediction from yield components and limiting factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Casanova, D.; Goudriaan, J.; Catala Former, M.M.; Withagen, J.C.M.

    2002-01-01

    This article aims to quantify growth at field level in relation to crop status and soil properties in irrigated direct-seeded rice. Forty fields were selected in the Ebro Delta (Spain). Rice growth was monitored and soil properties measured. Yield was related to soil properties by a deductive

  8. Correlation Analysis of some Growth, Yield, Yield Components and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    three critical growth stages which was imposed by withholding water (at ... November, 5th December, 19th December and 2nd January) laid out in a split ... Simple correlation coefficient ® of different crop parameters and grain yield ... The husk bran and germ are rich sources of ..... heat in 2009/2010 dry season at Fadam a ...

  9. Status of fission yield data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    England, T.R.; Blachot, J.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper we summarize the current status of the recent US evaluation for 34 fissioning nuclides at one or more neutron incident energies and for spontaneous fission. Currently there are 50 yields sets, and for each we have independent and cumulative yields and uncertainties for approximately 1100 fission products. When finalized the recommended data will become part of Version VI of the US ENDF/B. Other major evaluations in progress that are included in a recently formed IAEA Coordinated Research Program are also summarized. In a second part we review two empirical models in use to estimate independent yields. Comparison of model estimates with measured data is presented, including a comparison with some recent data obtained from Lohengrin (Cf-249 T). 18 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  11. Assessment of Geant4 Prompt-Gamma Emission Yields in the Context of Proton Therapy Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Marco; Dauvergne, Denis; Freud, Nicolas; Krimmer, Jochen; Létang, Jean M.; Testa, Etienne

    2016-01-01

    Monte Carlo tools have been long used to assist the research and development of solutions for proton therapy monitoring. The present work focuses on the prompt-gamma emission yields by comparing experimental data with the outcomes of the current version of Geant4 using all applicable proton inelastic models. For the case in study and using the binary cascade model, it was found that Geant4 overestimates the prompt-gamma emission yields by 40.2 ± 0.3%, even though it predicts the prompt-gamma profile length of the experimental profile accurately. In addition, the default implementations of all proton inelastic models show an overestimation in the number of prompt gammas emitted. Finally, a set of built-in options and physically sound Geant4 source code changes have been tested in order to try to improve the discrepancy observed. A satisfactory agreement was found when using the QMD model with a wave packet width equal to 1.3 fm2. PMID:26858937

  12. Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D.B. [Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Cahill, K.N. [Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Field, C.B. [Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2007-03-15

    For the 1980-2003 period, we analyzed the relationship between crop yield and three climatic variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation) for 12 major Californian crops: wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios. The months and climatic variables of greatest importance to each crop were used to develop regressions relating yield to climatic conditions. For most crops, fairly simple equations using only 2-3 variables explained more than two-thirds of observed yield variance. The types of variables and months identified suggest that relatively poorly understood processes such as crop infection, pollination, and dormancy may be important mechanisms by which climate influences crop yield. Recent climatic trends have had mixed effects on crop yields, with orange and walnut yields aided, avocado yields hurt, and most crops little affected by recent climatic trends. Yield-climate relationships can provide a foundation for forecasting crop production within a year and for projecting the impact of future climate changes.

  13. Assessing potential sustainable wood yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Powers

    2001-01-01

    Society is making unprecedented demands on world forests to produce and sustain many values. Chief among them is wood supply, and concerns are rising globally about the ability of forests to meet increasing needs. Assessing this is not easy. It requires a basic understanding of the principles governing forest productivity: how wood yield varies with tree and stand...

  14. NIF total neutron yield diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Gary W.; Ruiz, Carlos L.

    2001-01-01

    We have designed a total neutron yield diagnostic for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) which is based on the activation of In and Cu samples. The particular approach that we have chosen is one in which we calibrate the entire counting system and which we call the ''F factor'' method. In this method, In and/or Cu samples are exposed to known sources of DD and DT neutrons. The activated samples are then counted with an appropriate system: a high purity Ge detector for In and a NaI coincidence system for Cu. We can then calculate a calibration factor, which relates measured activity to total neutron yield. The advantage of this approach is that specific knowledge of such quantities as cross sections and detector efficiencies is not needed. Unless the actual scattering environment of the NIF can be mocked up in the calibration experiment, the F factor will have to be modified using the results of a numerical simulation of the NIF scattering environment. In this article, the calibration factor methodology will be discussed and experimental results for the calibration factors will be presented. Total NIF neutron yields of 10 9 --10 19 can be measured with this method assuming a 50 cm stand-off distance can be employed for the lower yields

  15. Possible Overestimation of Surface Disinfection Efficiency by Assessment Methods Based on Liquid Sampling Procedures as Demonstrated by In Situ Quantification of Spore Viability ▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, I.; Bellon-Fontaine, M.-N.; Herry, J.-M.; Hilaire, D.; Moriconi, F.-X.; Naïtali, M.

    2011-01-01

    The standard test methods used to assess the efficiency of a disinfectant applied to surfaces are often based on counting the microbial survivors sampled in a liquid, but total cell removal from surfaces is seldom achieved. One might therefore wonder whether evaluations of microbial survivors in liquid-sampled cells are representative of the levels of survivors in whole populations. The present study was thus designed to determine the “damaged/undamaged” status induced by a peracetic acid disinfection for Bacillus atrophaeus spores deposited on glass coupons directly on this substrate and to compare it to the status of spores collected in liquid by a sampling procedure. The method utilized to assess the viability of both surface-associated and liquid-sampled spores included fluorescence labeling with a combination of Syto 61 and Chemchrome V6 dyes and quantifications by analyzing the images acquired by confocal laser scanning microscopy. The principal result of the study was that the viability of spores sampled in the liquid was found to be poorer than that of surface-associated spores. For example, after 2 min of peracetic acid disinfection, less than 17% ± 5% of viable cells were detected among liquid-sampled cells compared to 79% ± 5% or 47% ± 4%, respectively, when the viability was evaluated on the surface after or without the sampling procedure. Moreover, assessments of the survivors collected in the liquid phase, evaluated using the microscopic method and standard plate counts, were well correlated. Evaluations based on the determination of survivors among the liquid-sampled cells can thus overestimate the efficiency of surface disinfection procedures. PMID:21742922

  16. Possible overestimation of surface disinfection efficiency by assessment methods based on liquid sampling procedures as demonstrated by in situ quantification of spore viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, I; Bellon-Fontaine, M-N; Herry, J-M; Hilaire, D; Moriconi, F-X; Naïtali, M

    2011-09-01

    The standard test methods used to assess the efficiency of a disinfectant applied to surfaces are often based on counting the microbial survivors sampled in a liquid, but total cell removal from surfaces is seldom achieved. One might therefore wonder whether evaluations of microbial survivors in liquid-sampled cells are representative of the levels of survivors in whole populations. The present study was thus designed to determine the "damaged/undamaged" status induced by a peracetic acid disinfection for Bacillus atrophaeus spores deposited on glass coupons directly on this substrate and to compare it to the status of spores collected in liquid by a sampling procedure. The method utilized to assess the viability of both surface-associated and liquid-sampled spores included fluorescence labeling with a combination of Syto 61 and Chemchrome V6 dyes and quantifications by analyzing the images acquired by confocal laser scanning microscopy. The principal result of the study was that the viability of spores sampled in the liquid was found to be poorer than that of surface-associated spores. For example, after 2 min of peracetic acid disinfection, less than 17% ± 5% of viable cells were detected among liquid-sampled cells compared to 79% ± 5% or 47% ± 4%, respectively, when the viability was evaluated on the surface after or without the sampling procedure. Moreover, assessments of the survivors collected in the liquid phase, evaluated using the microscopic method and standard plate counts, were well correlated. Evaluations based on the determination of survivors among the liquid-sampled cells can thus overestimate the efficiency of surface disinfection procedures.

  17. Comparative Analysis of the $^{178m2}$Hf Yield at Reactions with Different Projectiles

    CERN Document Server

    Karamian, S A

    2004-01-01

    The long-lived high-spin $^{178m2}$Hf $K$-isomer can be produced in nuclear reactions with different projectiles. The reaction yields and cross-sections have been measured in the series of experiments and the results are now overviewed. The systematics of isomer-to-ground state ratios are drawn and real production capabilities are estimated for the best reactions. Such a summary is relevant to the significance of the isomer studies both for the nuclear-science knowledge and for possible applications. Potential isomer applications have been earlier stressed in popular publications with probably overestimated expectations. The real possibilities are restricted in part by the production yield and by other shortcomings as well.

  18. Dispersive analysis of {omega}{yields}3{pi} and {phi}{yields}3{pi} decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niecknig, Franz; Kubis, Bastian; Schneider, Sebastian P. [Universitaet Bonn, Helmholtz-Institut fuer Strahlen- und Kernphysik (Theorie) and Bethe Center for Theoretical Physics, Bonn (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    We study the three-pion decays of the lightest isoscalar vector mesons, {omega} and {phi}, in a dispersive framework that allows for a consistent description of final-state interactions between all three pions. Our results are solely dependent on the phenomenological input for the pion-pion P-wave scattering phase shift. We predict the Dalitz plot distributions for both decays and compare our findings to recent measurements of the {phi}{yields}3{pi} Dalitz plot by the KLOE and CMD-2 collaborations. Dalitz plot parameters for future precision measurements of {omega}{yields}3{pi} are predicted. We also calculate the {pi}{pi} P-wave inelasticity contribution from {omega}{pi} intermediate states. (orig.)

  19. Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudin, Amélie C M; Tolhurst, Tor N; Ker, Alan P; Janovicek, Ken; Tortora, Cristina; Martin, Ralph C; Deen, William

    2015-01-01

    stresses. This could help to sustain future yield levels in challenging production environments.

  20. GENETIC ANALYSIS OF YIELD AND YIELD COMPONENTS IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    2017-11-16

    Nov 16, 2017 ... used different genotypes and the environmental conditions under which their ... and Jinks (1971):. Y = m + aa + βd + a2aa + 2aβad +β2dd … .... /plant, 100-grain weight per plant and Grain yield per plant (g) of six generations in IET6279 X IR70445-146-3-. 3 cross. Traits. Generation. Mean. Standard. Range.

  1. Potato yield and yield structure depending on irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milić Stanko

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In the agroclimatic conditions of the Vojvodina Province, the application of an economic water regime and modern technology is necessary for stable and intensive potato production. A two-year experiment on calcareous chernozem was carried out to determine how irrigation and different pre-irrigation soil moisture affect potato yield and distribution of tuber fraction in the potato yield. The block-design trial had four replicates and was adapted for sprinkler irrigation conditions. It included four treatments: irrigation with pre-irrigation moisture levels of 60 % of field water capacity (FC, irrigation with pre-irrigation moisture levels of 70 % (FC, irrigation with pre-irrigation moisture levels of 80% (FC, and a non-irrigated control treatment. Irrigation significantly increased the yield of potato, which increased from 37.27 % to 75.86 %. Under irrigation, the percentage of small fractions decreased in favour of the 55 mm one, or fractions above the 45-55 mm range. On average, irrigated treatments produced significantly more tubers than the conditions of natural water supply. .

  2. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

  3. Future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    International involvement in particle physics is what the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) is all about. At the latest Future Perspectives meeting at Brookhaven from 5-10 October (after a keynote speech by doyen Viktor Weisskopf, who regretted the emergence of 'a nationalistic trend'), ICFA reviewed progress and examined its commitments in the light of the evolving world particle physics scene. Particular aims were to review worldwide accelerator achievements and plans, to survey the work of the four panels, and to discuss ICFA's special role in future cooperation in accelerator construction and use, and in research and development work for both accelerators and for detectors

  4. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  5. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  6. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  7. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D

    2007-04-26

    Models of yield responses to temperature change have often considered only changes in average temperature (Tavg), with the implicit assumption that changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can safely be ignored. The goal of this study was to evaluate this assumption using a combination of historical datasets and climate model projections. Data on national crop yields for 1961-2002 in the 10 leading producers of wheat, rice, and maize were combined with datasets on climate and crop locations to evaluate the empirical relationships between Tavg, DTR, and crop yields. In several rice and maize growing regions, including the two major nations for each crop, there was a clear negative response of yields to increased DTR. This finding reflects a nonlinear response of yields to temperature, which likely results from greater water and heat stress during hot days. In many other cases, the effects of DTR were not statistically significant, in part because correlations of DTR with other climate variables and the relatively short length of the time series resulted in wide confidence intervals for the estimates. To evaluate whether future changes in DTR are relevant to crop impact assessments, yield responses to projected changes in Tavg and DTR by 2046-2065 from 11 climate models were estimated. The mean climate model projections indicated an increase in DTR in most seasons and locations where wheat is grown, mixed projections for maize, and a general decrease in DTR for rice. These mean projections were associated with wide ranges that included zero in nearly all cases. The estimated impacts of DTR changes on yields were generally small (<5% change in yields) relative to the consistently negative impact of projected warming of Tavg. However, DTR changes did significantly affect yield responses in several cases, such as in reducing US maize yields and increasing India rice yields. Because DTR projections tend to be positively correlated with Tavg, estimates of yields

  8. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  9. Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

    OpenAIRE

    Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are quantified, yield gaps evaluated by crop experts, current yield progress by breeding estimated, and different yield projections compared. Results show decreasing yield growth for wheat and rice, but ...

  10. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  11. Bitcoin futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard

    2018-01-01

    Med introduktionen af et futures-marked er Bitcoin-eksponering blevet tilgængelig for en bredere gruppe af investorer, som hidtil ikke har kunnet eller villet tilgå det underliggende marked for Bitcoin. Artiklen finder, at kontrakterne umiddelbart favoriserer spekulanter på bekostning af hedgers og...

  12. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance...... is a useful testbed for developing and evaluating what makes robots expressive; it is also a useful platform for designing robot behaviors and dialogue that result in believable characters. Therefore theatre is a valuable testbed for studying human-robot interaction (HRI). We investigate how audiences...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  13. Future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J. Jr.

    2004-01-01

    Topics presented concerning the future developments in risk analysis are: safety goals, US severe accident policy, code developments, research programs, analyses and operation action, linking with the deterministic analyses. Principle consideration in risk is defined as protection of both general population, and nearby residents. The principal goal should be consistent with risk of other man-caused activities, the cost benefit after minimum safety levels are achieved, and proportional to benefits to be gained

  14. The impact of population ageing on future Danish drug expenditure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach

    expenditure among the elderly partly is due the high "costs of dying". Aims The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the ageing Danish population on future total expenditures on out-of-hospital prescription drugs and to describe the association between age and drug expenditure among survivors......Background Population ageing is likely to place an increasing burden on future health care budgets. Several studies have demonstrated that the impact of ageing on future hospital expenditures will be overestimated when not accounting for proximity to death. This is because greater health care...... compared to that of decedents. Methods Taking expenditure during the last year of life and the changes in mortality rates into account, future drug expenditure was projected by multiplying estimated mean annual drug expenditure according to age, gender and survival status by the predicted future number...

  15. Yields of historical exploration programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huslende, T.

    1995-01-01

    The paper relates to an method of evaluation developed for analysing the yield of historical exploration programs by computerized simulation. The most important elements show in coarse features how the results can be used in the different analyses. The evaluation is to be executed annually for the comparison and sorting of data from different offshore sites. Topics are exploration evaluation study, evaluation process, handling of exploration costs, discovered reserves, development projects, cash flow analysis, analysis of results, finding cost, international comparison. 1 ref., 11 figs

  16. Crop diversity for yield increase.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengyun Li

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional farming practices suggest that cultivation of a mixture of crop species in the same field through temporal and spatial management may be advantageous in boosting yields and preventing disease, but evidence from large-scale field testing is limited. Increasing crop diversity through intercropping addresses the problem of increasing land utilization and crop productivity. In collaboration with farmers and extension personnel, we tested intercropping of tobacco, maize, sugarcane, potato, wheat and broad bean--either by relay cropping or by mixing crop species based on differences in their heights, and practiced these patterns on 15,302 hectares in ten counties in Yunnan Province, China. The results of observation plots within these areas showed that some combinations increased crop yields for the same season between 33.2 and 84.7% and reached a land equivalent ratio (LER of between 1.31 and 1.84. This approach can be easily applied in developing countries, which is crucial in face of dwindling arable land and increasing food demand.

  17. The minimum yield in channeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uguzzoni, A.; Gaertner, K.; Lulli, G.; Andersen, J.U.

    2000-01-01

    A first estimate of the minimum yield was obtained from Lindhard's theory, with the assumption of a statistical equilibrium in the transverse phase-space of channeled particles guided by a continuum axial potential. However, computer simulations have shown that this estimate should be corrected by a fairly large factor, C (approximately equal to 2.5), called the Barrett factor. We have shown earlier that the concept of a statistical equilibrium can be applied to understand this result, with the introduction of a constraint in phase-space due to planar channeling of axially channeled particles. Here we present an extended test of these ideas on the basis of computer simulation of the trajectories of 2 MeV α particles in Si. In particular, the gradual trend towards a full statistical equilibrium is studied. We also discuss the introduction of this modification of standard channeling theory into descriptions of the multiple scattering of channeled particles (dechanneling) by a master equation and show that the calculated minimum yields are in very good agreement with the results of a full computer simulation

  18. EMPIRICALLY DERIVED INTEGRATED STELLAR YIELDS OF Fe-PEAK ELEMENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, R. B. C.; Cowan, John J.; Sobeck, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    We present here the initial results of a new study of massive star yields of Fe-peak elements. We have compiled from the literature a database of carefully determined solar neighborhood stellar abundances of seven iron-peak elements, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, and Ni, and then plotted [X/Fe] versus [Fe/H] to study the trends as functions of metallicity. Chemical evolution models were then employed to force a fit to the observed trends by adjusting the input massive star metallicity-sensitive yields of Kobayashi et al. Our results suggest that yields of Ti, V, and Co are generally larger as well as anticorrelated with metallicity, in contrast to the Kobayashi et al. predictions. We also find the yields of Cr and Mn to be generally smaller and directly correlated with metallicity compared to the theoretical results. Our results for Ni are consistent with theory, although our model suggests that all Ni yields should be scaled up slightly. The outcome of this exercise is the computation of a set of integrated yields, i.e., stellar yields weighted by a slightly flattened time-independent Salpeter initial mass function and integrated over stellar mass, for each of the above elements at several metallicity points spanned by the broad range of observations. These results are designed to be used as empirical constraints on future iron-peak yield predictions by stellar evolution modelers. Special attention is paid to the interesting behavior of [Cr/Co] with metallicity-these two elements have opposite slopes-as well as the indirect correlation of [Ti/Fe] with [Fe/H]. These particular trends, as well as those exhibited by the inferred integrated yields of all iron-peak elements with metallicity, are discussed in terms of both supernova nucleosynthesis and atomic physics.

  19. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  20. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate “High-Yield Scenario” (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  1. Future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitz, J.; Hetherington, C.

    1997-01-01

    Issues regarding future development by oil and gas companies in Canada's Arctic and the Beaufort Sea were discussed. It was suggested in the Berger report that Northern development should be under the control of the people whose lives and economy are being changed. Aboriginal people are now much more sophisticated politically, and have a better understanding of what is involved. Most of them would like the financial benefits from development, but the development would have to be on their terms. Most people involved with Arctic oil exploration feel that there is enough oil in the Arctic to warrant production. (Reserves in the Beaufort Sea are estimated at two billion barrels of good quality oil). If development were to continue, there exist two methods of transportation to move the oil to market. Gulf, Imperial Oil and Panarctic favour the use of pipelines, whereas Dome Petroleum Ltd. favours the use of ice-breaking tankers. In each case the favored option seems to depend upon the location of the company's leases, the capital and operating costs, and the potential environmental impacts. Undoubtedly, any future development will be guided by the scientific information and technical expertise of oil industry pioneers of the 1960s and the 1970s, and the wisdom gained from the experiences of the many participants whose views and insights are recorded in this book

  2. Simulation of relationship between river discharge and sediment yield in the semi-arid river watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaleghi, Mohammad Reza; Varvani, Javad

    2018-02-01

    Complex and variable nature of the river sediment yield caused many problems in estimating the long-term sediment yield and problems input into the reservoirs. Sediment Rating Curves (SRCs) are generally used to estimate the suspended sediment load of the rivers and drainage watersheds. Since the regression equations of the SRCs are obtained by logarithmic retransformation and have a little independent variable in this equation, they also overestimate or underestimate the true sediment load of the rivers. To evaluate the bias correction factors in Kalshor and Kashafroud watersheds, seven hydrometric stations of this region with suitable upstream watershed and spatial distribution were selected. Investigation of the accuracy index (ratio of estimated sediment yield to observed sediment yield) and the precision index of different bias correction factors of FAO, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE), Smearing, and Minimum-Variance Unbiased Estimator (MVUE) with LSD test showed that FAO coefficient increases the estimated error in all of the stations. Application of MVUE in linear and mean load rating curves has not statistically meaningful effects. QMLE and smearing factors increased the estimated error in mean load rating curve, but that does not have any effect on linear rating curve estimation.

  3. Future Talks,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Defeyt

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available La conservation des matériaux modernes et les difficultés qui la caractérisent étaient l’objet du colloque international Future Talks, organisé par Die Neue Sammlung, The International Design Museum, les 22 et 23 octobre 2009 à Munich. Conservateurs-restaurateurs spécialisés, représentants des  institutions muséales les plus prestigieuses d’Europe et d’outre-Atlantique ainsi que chercheurs en sciences appliquées y ont présenté leurs travaux et recherches. En matière de design, d’art moderne e...

  4. Combining ability and heterosis for yield and yield contributing traits in brassica rapa (l.) ssp. dichotoma (roxb.) hanelt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasim, A.; Farhatullah, A.; Khan, N.U.; Afzal, M.; Azam, S.M.

    2014-01-01

    Combining ability was studied for yield and yield contributing traits in 5 * 5 diallel cross in Brassica rapa (L.) ssp. dichotoma (Roxb.) Hanelt. Primary branches plant-1, pods main raceme-1, pod length, 100-seed weight and seed yield plant-1 were significantly different. Heritability and genetic advance estimates were moderate for primary branches plant-1, pods main raceme-1, 100 seed weight whereas were high for seed yield plant-1. Parental line G-909 for primary branches plant-1, pods main raceme-1 and seed yield plant-1, genotype G-902 for pod length and genotype G-403 for 100-seed weight were the best general combiners. Based on combing ability and heterosis, the F1 hybrids G-909 * G-265 (for primary branches plant-1), G-265 * G- 403, G-1500 * G-909 (for pods main raceme-1), G-403 * G-909 (for pod length), G-265 * G-1500 (for 100-seed weight) and G-1500 * G-902, G-909 * G-902 (for seed yield plant-1) can be utilized in future breeding endeavors. Non-additive genetic control, as predominant mechanism, for all the traits necessitates the use of schemes like bi-parental mating design, diallel selective mating followed by recurrent or reciprocal recurrent selection. (author)

  5. Economics and yields of energy plantations: Status and potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenney, W.A.; Gambles, R.L.; Zsuffa, L.

    1992-01-01

    A study was carried out to: determine the factors affecting the cost of energy conversion feedstocks in short rotation intensive culture plantations of trees; determine the factors influencing biomass yield; identify interrelationships between the previous two objectives; present estimates of potential biomass yields and associated economics; and to identify gaps in the knowledge of the economics and yields of biomass production and their interrelationships. Reported costs for most aspects had a wide range. Currently, yields of 10-15 dry Mg/hectare/y are readily achievable. Using the cost and yield data, and assuming a biomass price of $40/dry Mg, a series of cash flow analyses were performed. For the low cost inputs, all scenarios were marginally profitable. For the high cost inputs, none of the scenarios were profitable. A current scenario, using figures for contract farming, was not profitable, however this system would break even with a yield of 23.3 dry Mg/hectare/y, within the range of some production clones. A future scenario using farm labour with increased productivity, product values, and machinery efficiencies yielded a profit-making situation. The addition of incentives increased profitability. There is great potential for the production of woody biomass in Canada as a feedstock for energy and other products. Continued and more intensive breeding and selection to develop high yielding stress tolerant clones, cost efficient harvesting systems, continued research into optimization of planting density, rotation length and cultural techniques, and characterization of promising clones with respect to nutrient-use efficiency, site requirements and pest/disease resistance are important areas for further work. 81 refs., 3 figs., 13 tabs

  6. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

    2017-06-01

    Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

  7. Nanofabrication Yields. Hybridization and Click-Fixation of Polycyclic DNA Nanoassemblies

    KAUST Repository

    Lundberg, Erik P.; Plesa, Calin; Wilhelmsson, L. Marcus; Lincoln, Per; Brown, Tom; Nordén, Bengt

    2011-01-01

    introduced site-specific click chemistry for making and purifying robust building blocks for future modular constructs of larger assemblies. Although the present yield of this robust module was only about 10%, it demonstrates a first step toward a general

  8. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  9. Influence of micronutrients and their method of application on yield and yield components of sunflower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baraich, A.A.K.; Gandahi, A.W.

    2016-01-01

    The sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) has been recognized as a crop with high potentials that can successfully meet future oil requirements of the country. Formulation of micronutrients (MN) based fertilizer, in terms of application rate and method, and uptake of MN by sunflower has the ability not only to ensure nutrients availability to plants particularly in MN-limiting environments but also can manipulate the environmental hazards associated with over inorganic fertilization. To support this view, clear experimental evidence is still lacking. In addition, the current experiments aimed to evaluate the influence of MN and its method of application on yield and yield components of sunflower cultivars/hybrids. Three sunflower cultivars (HO-1, Hysun-39 and Ausigold-62) along with three MN (Z, B and Fe) and two application methods (soil and foliar) were used in the experiment. Three Zn application rate (3, 5 and 8 kg ha-1) along with 0.75 kg ha-1 B and 0.30 kg Fe ha-1 were used in four combinations such as 0-0-0, 0-0.75-0.30, 0-0.75-0.30, 3-0.75-0.30, 5-0.75-0.30, 8-0.75-0.30 kg Z, B and Fe ha-1, respectively. A control (no MN) treatment was also included for comparison. Two year averaged study exhibited that foliar application of Zn, B and Fe at rate of 8-0.30-0.75 kg ha-1 increased stem girth, head diameter, number of seeds head-1, seed weight head-1, seed index, oil content and seed yield by 21%, 27%, 13%, 34%, 19%, 24 and 31%, respectively over control. Among cultivars/hybrids, the hybrids HO-1 and Hysun-39 had taller plants, seed weight head-1, seeds head-1 and earlier in flowering and maturity. Flowering and maturity was delayed in Ausi Gold-62 with higher seed index and oil content. It is concluded that foliar application of micronutrients at the rate of 8+0.75+0.30 Zn, B and Fe kg ha-1 had substantially improved yield and yield related traits of sunflower cultivars HO-1, Hysun-39 and Ausi gold-62. (author)

  10. Net energy yield from production of conventional oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, Michael; Krumdieck, Susan; Bodger, Pat

    2011-01-01

    Historic profitability of bringing oil to market was profound, but most easy oil has been developed. Higher cost resources, such as tar sands and deep off-shore, are considered the best prospects for the future. Economic modelling is currently used to explore future price scenarios commensurate with delivering fuel to market. Energy policy requires modelling scenarios capturing the complexity of resource and extraction aspects as well as the economic profitability of different resources. Energy-return-on-investment (EROI) expresses the profitability of bringing energy products to the market. Net energy yield (NEY) is related to the EROI. NEY is the amount of energy less expenditures necessary to deliver a fuel to the market. This paper proposes a pattern for EROI of oil production, based on historic oil development trends. Methodology and data for EROI is not agreed upon. The proposed EROI function is explored in relation to the available data and used to attenuate the International Energy Agency (IEA) world oil production scenarios to understand the implications of future declining EROI on net energy yield. The results suggest that strategies for management and mitigation of deleterious effects of a peak in oil production are more urgent than might be suggested by analyses focussing only on gross production. - Highlights: → Brief introduction to methodological issues concerning net energy analysis. → Description of EROI function over the whole production cycle of an energy resource. → Calibration of this function to EROI data from historic oil production. → Application to determine the net energy yield from current global oil production. → Calculation of net energy yield from IEA projections of future oil production.

  11. Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are

  12. Future European biogas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, A. K.P.; Ehimen, E. A.; Holm-Nielsen, J. B.

    2018-01-01

    Biogas is expected to play an important role in reaching the future energy policy targets of the European Union (EU). The sustainability of biogas substrates has however been recently critically discussed due to the increasing shares of agricultural land used for energy crop production.The aim...... of this study was to project and map the biomass and biogas energy potential from a selection of potentially sustainable agricultural residues, which have been documented to improve in biogas yields when co-digested in biogas production, for the EU28 in year 2030. The investigated types of residual biomasses...... were animal manure, straw by-products from cereal production, and excess grass from rotational and permanent grasslands and meadows. The biogas energy potential from the investigated biomass was projected to range from 1.2·103 to 2.3·103 PJ y-1 in year 2030 in the EU28, depending on the biomass...

  13. 25 CFR 163.11 - Forest management planning and sustained yield management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... principles of sustained yield management and will not be authorized until practical methods of harvest based on sound economic and silvicultural and other forest management principles have been prescribed... period in the future. Forest management plans shall be based on the principle of sustained yield...

  14. GDP growth and the yield curvature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the forecastability of GDP growth using information from the term structure of yields. In contrast to previous studies, the paper shows that the curvature of the yield curve contributes with much more forecasting power than the slope of yield curve. The yield curvature also...... predicts bond returns, implying a common element to time-variation in expected bond returns and expected GDP growth....

  15. Future food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2016-12-01

    Food systems have changed markedly with human settlement and agriculture, industrialisation, trade, migration and now the digital age. Throughout these transitions, there has been a progressive population explosion and net ecosystem loss and degradation. Climate change now gathers pace, exacerbated by ecological dysfunction. Our health status has been challenged by a developing people-environment mismatch. We have regarded ecological conquest and innovative technology as solutions, but have not understood how ecologically dependent and integrated we are. We are ecological creatures interfaced by our sensoriness, microbiomes, shared regulatory (endocrine) mechanisms, immune system, biorhythms and nutritional pathways. Many of us are 'nature-deprived'. We now suffer what might be termed ecological health disorders (EHD). If there were less of us, nature's resilience might cope, but more than 9 billion people by 2050 is probably an intolerable demand on the planet. Future food must increasingly take into account the pressures on ecosystem-dependent food systems, with foods probably less biodiverse, although eating in this way allows optimal health; energy dysequilibrium with less physical activity and foods inappropriately energy dense; and less socially-conducive food habits. 'Personalised Nutrition', with extensive and resource-demanding nutrigenomic, metabolomic and microbiomic data may provide partial health solutions in clinical settings, but not be justified for ethical, risk management or sustainability reasons in public health. The globally prevalent multidimensional malnutritional problems of food insecurity, quality and equity require local, regional and global action to prevent further ecosystem degradation as well as to educate, provide sustainable livelihoods and encourage respectful social discourse and practice about the role of food.

  16. Evaluations of sugarcane genotypes for yields and yield contributing traits under Thatta conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panhwar, R.N.; Keerio, H.K.

    2004-01-01

    Performance of twelve sugarcane genotypes viz. Th-7, Th-9, Th-10, Th-12, Th-14, Th-18, Th-23, Th-27, Th-31, Th-32, Th-33 and Th-34 developed from local fuzz along with two check varieties BL-4 and BF-129 was studied in advance varietal selection trial at National Sugar Crops Research Institute, Thatta during 2000-2001. Data were recorded for cane girth, number of internodes/stalk, stalk height, mill able cane/m/sup 2/, cane yield t/ha and brix percentage. On the basis of over all performance three genotypes namely Th-34, Th-10 and Th-33 were found promising and produced highest average cane yield 116, 115 and 112 t/ha, respectively against the check varieties BL-4 (110 t/ha) and BF-129 (98.5 t/ha). The average Brix values recorded for Th-10, Th-34 and Th-33 were 23.7, 23.2 and 22.9%, respectively against the check verities BL-4 (21.8%) and BF-129 (22.8%). Thus it was conclude, that genotypes Th-34, Th-10 and Tb-33 might prove best commercial varieties in future. However, potential of these genotypes need to be tested in different environmental conditions to elicit substantial conclusions. (author)

  17. Analysis of yield advantage in mixed cropping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranganathan, R.

    1993-01-01

    It has long been recognized that mixed cropping can give yield advantages over sole cropping, but methods that can identify such yield benefits are still being developed. This thesis presents a method that combines physiological and economic principles in the evaluation of yield advantage.

  18. Fission yield data evaluation system FYDES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Tingjin

    1998-01-01

    Taking account of some features of fission yield data, to do the fission yield data evaluation conveniently, a fission yield data evaluation system FYDES has been developed for last two years. Outline of the system, data retrieval and data table standardization, data correction codes, data averaging code, simultaneous evaluation code and data fit programs were introduced

  19. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , S. and ... factors to rice yield. Adebayo and Adebayo (1997) developed double log multiple regression model to predict rice yield in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The general form of .... the second are the crop yield/values for millet and sorghum ...

  20. Getting water right: A case study in water yield modelling based on precipitation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessacg, Natalia; Flaherty, Silvia; Brandizi, Laura; Solman, Silvina; Pascual, Miguel

    2015-12-15

    Water yield is a key ecosystem service in river basins and especially in dry regions around the World. In this study we carry out a modelling analysis of water yields in the Chubut River basin, located in one of the driest districts of Patagonia, Argentina. We focus on the uncertainty around precipitation data, a driver of paramount importance for water yield. The objectives of this study are to: i) explore the spatial and numeric differences among six widely used global precipitation datasets for this region, ii) test them against data from independent ground stations, and iii) explore the effects of precipitation data uncertainty on simulations of water yield. The simulations were performed using the ecosystem services model InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) with each of the six different precipitation datasets as input. Our results show marked differences among datasets for the Chubut watershed region, both in the magnitude of precipitations and their spatial arrangement. Five of the precipitation databases overestimate the precipitation over the basin by 50% or more, particularly over the more humid western range. Meanwhile, the remaining dataset (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - TRMM), based on satellite measurements, adjusts well to the observed rainfall in different stations throughout the watershed and provides a better representation of the precipitation gradient characteristic of the rain shadow of the Andes. The observed differences among datasets in the representation of the rainfall gradient translate into large differences in water yield simulations. Errors in precipitation of +30% (-30%) amplify to water yield errors ranging from 50 to 150% (-45 to -60%) in some sub-basins. These results highlight the importance of assessing uncertainties in main input data when quantifying and mapping ecosystem services with biophysical models and cautions about the undisputed use of global environmental datasets. Copyright

  1. An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel K. Newlands

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel forecasting method for generating agricultural crop yield forecasts at the seasonal and regional-scale, integrating agroclimate variables and remotely-sensed indices. The method devises a multivariate statistical model to compute bias and uncertainty in forecasted yield at the Census of Agricultural Region (CAR scale across the Canadian Prairies. The method uses robust variable-selection to select the best predictors within spatial subregions. Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation and random forest-tree machine learning techniques are then integrated to generate sequential forecasts through the growing season. Cross-validation of the model was performed by hindcasting/backcasting it and comparing its forecasts against available historical data (1987-2011 for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.. The model was also validated for the 2012 growing season by comparing its forecast skill at the CAR, provincial and Canadian Prairie region scales against available statistical survey data. Mean percent departures between wheat yield forecasted were under-estimated by 1-4 % in mid-season and over-estimated by 1 % at the end of the growing season. This integrated methodology offers a consistent, generalizable approach for sequentially forecasting crop yield at the regional-scale. It provides a statistically robust, yet flexible way to concurrently adjust to data-rich and data-sparse situations, adaptively select different predictors of yield to changing levels of environmental uncertainty, and to update forecasts sequentially so as to incorporate new data as it becomes available. This integrated method also provides additional statistical support for assessing the accuracy and reliability of model-based crop yield forecasts in time and space.

  2. Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan

    2017-11-01

    Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.

  3. The buffer value of groundwater when well yield is limited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, T.; Brozović, N.; Speir, C.

    2017-04-01

    A large proportion of the total value of groundwater in conjunctive use systems is associated with the ability to smooth out shortfalls in surface water supply during droughts. Previous research has argued that aquifer depletion in these regions will impact farmers negatively by reducing the available stock of groundwater to buffer production in future periods, and also by increasing the costs of groundwater extraction. However, existing studies have not considered how depletion may impact the productivity of groundwater stocks in conjunctive use systems through reductions in well yields. In this work, we develop a hydro-economic modeling framework to quantify the effects of changes in well yields on the buffer value of groundwater, and apply this model to an illustrative case study of tomato production in California's Central Valley. Our findings demonstrate that farmers with low well yields are forced to forgo significant production and profits because instantaneous groundwater supply is insufficient to buffer surface water shortfalls in drought years. Negative economic impacts of low well yields are an increasing function of surface water variability, and are also greatest for farmers operating less efficient irrigation systems. These results indicate that impacts of well yield reductions on the productivity of groundwater are an important economic impact of aquifer depletion, and that failure to consider this feedback may lead to significant errors in estimates of the value of groundwater management in conjunctive use systems.

  4. Closing Yield Gaps: How Sustainable Can We Be?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prajal Pradhan

    Full Text Available Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends

  5. Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaggard, Keith W; Qi, Aiming; Ober, Eric S

    2010-09-27

    By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.

  6. Closing Yield Gaps: How Sustainable Can We Be?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Prajal; Fischer, Günther; van Velthuizen, Harrij; Reusser, Dominik E.; Kropp, Juergen P.

    2015-01-01

    Global food production needs to be increased by 60–110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45–73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22–46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2–3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way

  7. Redefining yield gaps at various spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, K.; Fishman, R.; Norstrom, A. V.; Diekert, F. K.; Engstrom, G.; Gars, J.; McCarney, G. R.; Sjostedt, M.

    2013-12-01

    Recent research has highlighted the prevalence of 'yield gaps' around the world and the importance of closing them for global food security. However, the traditional concept of yield gap -defined as the difference between observed and optimal yield under biophysical conditions - omit relevant socio-economic and ecological constraints and thus offer limited guidance on potential policy interventions. This paper proposes alternative definitions of yield gaps by incorporating rich, high resolution, national and sub-national agricultural datasets. We examine feasible efforts to 'close yield gaps' at various spatial scales and across different socio-economic and ecological domains.

  8. Yield surface evolution for columnar ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhiwei; Ma, Wei; Zhang, Shujuan; Mu, Yanhu; Zhao, Shunpin; Li, Guoyu

    A series of triaxial compression tests, which has capable of measuring the volumetric strain of the sample, were conducted on columnar ice. A new testing approach of probing the experimental yield surface was performed from a single sample in order to investigate yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice under complex stress states. Based on the characteristic of the volumetric strain, a new method of defined the multiaxial yield strengths of the columnar ice is proposed. The experimental yield surface remains elliptical shape in the stress space of effective stress versus mean stress. The effect of temperature, loading rate and loading path in the initial yield surface and deformation properties of the columnar ice were also studied. Subsequent yield surfaces of the columnar ice have been explored by using uniaxial and hydrostatic paths. The evolution of the subsequent yield surface exhibits significant path-dependent characteristics. The multiaxial hardening law of the columnar ice was established experimentally. A phenomenological yield criterion was presented for multiaxial yield and hardening behaviors of the columnar ice. The comparisons between the theoretical and measured results indicate that this current model is capable of giving a reasonable prediction for the multiaxial yield and post-yield properties of the columnar ice subjected to different temperature, loading rate and path conditions.

  9. Influence of management and environment on Australian wheat: information for sustainable intensification and closing yield gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryan, B A; King, D; Zhao, G

    2014-01-01

    In the future, agriculture will need to produce more, from less land, more sustainably. But currently, in many places, actual crop yields are below those attainable. We quantified the ability for agricultural management to increase wheat yields across 179 Mha of potentially arable land in Australia. Using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), we simulated the impact on wheat yield of 225 fertilization and residue management scenarios at a high spatial, temporal, and agronomic resolution from 1900 to 2010. The influence of management and environmental variables on wheat yield was then assessed using Spearman’s non-parametric correlation test with bootstrapping. While residue management showed little correlation, fertilization strongly increased wheat yield up to around 100 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . However, this effect was highly dependent on the key environment variables of rainfall, temperature, and soil water holding capacity. The influence of fertilization on yield was stronger in cooler, wetter climates, and in soils with greater water holding capacity. We conclude that the effectiveness of management intensification to increase wheat yield is highly dependent upon local climate and soil conditions. We provide context-specific information on the yield benefits of fertilization to support adaptive agronomic decision-making and contribute to the closure of yield gaps. We also suggest that future assessments consider the economic and environmental sustainability of management intensification for closing yield gaps. (paper)

  10. Influence of management and environment on Australian wheat: information for sustainable intensification and closing yield gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, B. A.; King, D.; Zhao, G.

    2014-04-01

    In the future, agriculture will need to produce more, from less land, more sustainably. But currently, in many places, actual crop yields are below those attainable. We quantified the ability for agricultural management to increase wheat yields across 179 Mha of potentially arable land in Australia. Using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), we simulated the impact on wheat yield of 225 fertilization and residue management scenarios at a high spatial, temporal, and agronomic resolution from 1900 to 2010. The influence of management and environmental variables on wheat yield was then assessed using Spearman’s non-parametric correlation test with bootstrapping. While residue management showed little correlation, fertilization strongly increased wheat yield up to around 100 kg N ha-1 yr-1. However, this effect was highly dependent on the key environment variables of rainfall, temperature, and soil water holding capacity. The influence of fertilization on yield was stronger in cooler, wetter climates, and in soils with greater water holding capacity. We conclude that the effectiveness of management intensification to increase wheat yield is highly dependent upon local climate and soil conditions. We provide context-specific information on the yield benefits of fertilization to support adaptive agronomic decision-making and contribute to the closure of yield gaps. We also suggest that future assessments consider the economic and environmental sustainability of management intensification for closing yield gaps.

  11. Measurements of beryllium sputtering yields at JET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jet-Efda Contributors Stamp, M. F.; Krieger, K.; Brezinsek, S.

    2011-08-01

    The lifetime of the beryllium first wall in ITER will depend on erosion and redeposition processes. The physical sputtering yields for beryllium (both deuterium on beryllium (Be) and Be on Be) are of crucial importance since they drive the erosion process. Literature values of experimental sputtering yields show an order of magnitude variation so predictive modelling of ITER wall lifetimes has large uncertainty. We have reviewed the old beryllium yield experiments on JET and used current beryllium atomic data to produce revised beryllium sputtering yields. These experimental measurements have been compared with a simple physical sputtering model based on TRIM.SP beryllium yield data. Fair agreement is seen for beryllium yields from a clean beryllium limiter. However the yield on a beryllium divertor tile (with C/Be co-deposits) shows poor agreement at low electron temperatures indicating that the effect of the higher sputtering threshold for beryllium carbide is important.

  12. African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Folberth, Christian; Balkovič, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Fritz, Steffen; Janssens, Ivan A.; Obersteiner, Michael; See, Linda; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Peñuealas, Josep

    2014-05-01

    The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production has been known for decades, but robust assessments of the impact of increasingly unbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates on crop production are lacking. Here, we use crop response functions based on 741 FAO maize crop trials and EPIC crop modeling across Africa to examine maize yield deficits resulting from unbalanced N:P applications under low, medium, and high input scenarios, for past (1975), current, and future N:P mass ratios of respectively, 1:0.29, 1:0.15, and 1:0.05. At low N inputs (10 kg/ha), current yield deficits amount to 10% but will increase up to 27% under the assumed future N:P ratio, while at medium N inputs (50 kg N/ha), future yield losses could amount to over 40%. The EPIC crop model was then used to simulate maize yields across Africa. The model results showed relative median future yield reductions at low N inputs of 40%, and 50% at medium and high inputs, albeit with large spatial variability. Dominant low-quality soils such as Ferralsols, which are strongly adsorbing P, and Arenosols with a low nutrient retention capacity, are associated with a strong yield decline, although Arenosols show very variable crop yield losses at low inputs. Optimal N:P ratios, i.e. those where the lowest amount of applied P produces the highest yield (given N input) where calculated with EPIC to be as low as 1:0.5. Finally, we estimated the additional P required given current N inputs, and given N inputs that would allow Africa to close yield gaps (ca. 70%). At current N inputs, P consumption would have to increase 2.3-fold to be optimal, and to increase 11.7-fold to close yield gaps. The P demand to overcome these yield deficits would provide a significant additional pressure on current global extraction of P resources.

  13. Using Satellite Data to Unpack Causes of Yield Gaps in India's Wheat Belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Singh, B.; Srivastava, A.; Malik, R. K.; McDonald, A.; Lobell, D. B.

    2016-12-01

    India will face significant food security challenges in the coming decades due to climate change, natural resource degradation, and population growth. Yields of wheat, one of India's staple crops, are already stagnating and will be significantly impacted by warming temperatures. Despite these challenges, wheat yields can be enhanced by implementing improved management in regions with existing yield gaps. To identify the magnitude and causes of current yield gaps, we produced 30 m resolution yield maps across India's main wheat belt, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), from 2000 to 2015. Yield maps were derived using a new method that translates satellite vegetation indices to yield estimates using crop model simulations, bypassing the need for ground calibration data that rarely exist in smallholder systems. We find that yields can be increased by 5% on average and up to 16% in the eastern IGP by improving management to current best practices within a given district. However, if policies and technologies are put in place to improve management to current best practices in Punjab, the highest yielding state, yields can be increased by 29% in the eastern IGP. Considering which factors most influence wheat yields, we find that later sow dates and warmer temperatures are most associated with low yields across the IGP. This suggests that strategies that reduce the negative effects of heat stress, like earlier sowing and planting heat-tolerant wheat varieties, are critical to India's current and future food security.

  14. Studies of fission fragment yields via high-resolution γ-ray spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. N.; Lebois, M.; Qi, L.; Amador-Celdran, P.; Bleuel, D.; Briz, J. A.; Carroll, R.; Catford, W.; Witte, H. De; Doherty, D. T.; Eloirdi, R.; Georgiev, G.; Gottardo, A.; Goasduff, A.; Hadyñska-Klek, K.; Hauschild, K.; Hess, H.; Ingeberg, V.; Konstantinopoulos, T.; Ljungvall, J.; Lopez-Martens, A.; Lorusso, G.; Lozeva, R.; Lutter, R.; Marini, P.; Matea, I.; Materna, T.; Mathieu, L.; Oberstedt, A.; Oberstedt, S.; Panebianco, S.; Podolyak, Zs.; Porta, A.; Regan, P. H.; Reiter, P.; Rezynkina, K.; Rose, S. J.; Sahin, E.; Seidlitz, M.; Serot, O.; Shearman, R.; Siebeck, B.; Siem, S.; Smith, A. G.; Tveten, G. M.; Verney, D.; Warr, N.; Zeiser, F.; Zielinska, M.

    2018-03-01

    Precise spectroscopic information on the fast neutron induced fission of the 238U(n,f) reaction was recently gained using a new technique which involved coupling of the Miniball high resolution y-ray spectrometer and the LICORNE directional neutron source. The experiment allowed measurement of the isotopic fission yields for around 40 even-even nuclei at an incident neutron energy of around 2 MeV where yield data are very sparse. In addition spectroscopic information on very neutron-rich fission products was obtained. Results were compared to models, both the JEFF-3.1.1 data base and the GEF code, and large discrepancies for the S1 fission mode in the Sn/Mo isotope pair were discovered. This suggests that current models are overestimating the role played by spherical shell effects in fast neutron induced fission. In late 2017 and 2018 the nu-ball hybrid spectrometer will be constructed at the IPN Orsay to perform further experimental investigations with directional neutrons coupled to a powerful hybrid Ge/LaBr3 detector array. This will open up new possibilities for measurements of fission yields for fast-neutron-induced fission using the spectroscopic technique and will be complimentary to other methods being developed.

  15. Site-specific estimates of water yield applied in regional acid sensitivity surveys across western Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick D. SHAW

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Runoff or water yield is an important input to the Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC model for estimating critical loads of acidity. Herein, we present site-specific water yield estimates for a large number of lakes (779 across three provinces of western Canada (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia using an isotope mass balance (IMB approach. We explore the impact of applying site-specific hydrology as compared to use of regional runoff estimates derived from gridded datasets in assessing critical loads of acidity to these lakes. In general, the average water yield derived from IMB is similar to the long-term average runoff; however, IMB results suggest a much larger range in hydrological settings of the lakes, attributed to spatial heterogeneity in watershed characteristics and landcover. The comparison of critical loads estimates from the two methods suggests that use of average regional runoff data in the SSWC model may overestimate critical loads for the majority of lakes due to systematic skewness in the actual runoff distributions. Implications for use of site-specific hydrology in regional critical loads assessments across western Canada are discussed.

  16. Studies of fission fragment yields via high-resolution γ-ray spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson J.N.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Precise spectroscopic information on the fast neutron induced fission of the 238U(n,f reaction was recently gained using a new technique which involved coupling of the Miniball high resolution y-ray spectrometer and the LICORNE directional neutron source. The experiment allowed measurement of the isotopic fission yields for around 40 even-even nuclei at an incident neutron energy of around 2 MeV where yield data are very sparse. In addition spectroscopic information on very neutron-rich fission products was obtained. Results were compared to models, both the JEFF-3.1.1 data base and the GEF code, and large discrepancies for the S1 fission mode in the Sn/Mo isotope pair were discovered. This suggests that current models are overestimating the role played by spherical shell effects in fast neutron induced fission. In late 2017 and 2018 the nu-ball hybrid spectrometer will be constructed at the IPN Orsay to perform further experimental investigations with directional neutrons coupled to a powerful hybrid Ge/LaBr3 detector array. This will open up new possibilities for measurements of fission yields for fast-neutron-induced fission using the spectroscopic technique and will be complimentary to other methods being developed.

  17. System dynamics approach for modeling of sugar beet yield considering the effects of climatic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervin, Lia; Islam, Md Saiful

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios. A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield. The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. ROI on yield data analysis systems through a business process management strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehani, Manu; Strader, Nathan; Hanson, Jeff

    2005-05-01

    The overriding motivation for yield engineering is profitability. This is achieved through application of yield management. The first application is to continually reduce waste in the form of yield loss. New products, new technologies and the dynamic state of the process and equipment keep introducing new ways to cause yield loss. In response, the yield management efforts have to continually come up with new solutions to minimize it. The second application of yield engineering is to aid in accurate product pricing. This is achieved through predicting future results of the yield engineering effort. The more accurate the yield prediction, the more accurate the wafer start volume, the more accurate the wafer pricing. Another aspect of yield prediction pertains to gauging the impact of a yield problem and predicting how long that will last. The ability to predict such impacts again feeds into wafer start calculations and wafer pricing. The question then is that if the stakes on yield management are so high why is it that most yield management efforts are run like science and engineering projects and less like manufacturing? In the eighties manufacturing put the theory of constraints1 into practice and put a premium on stability and predictability in manufacturing activities, why can't the same be done for yield management activities? This line of introspection led us to define and implement a business process to manage the yield engineering activities. We analyzed the best known methods (BKM) and deployed a workflow tool to make them the standard operating procedure (SOP) for yield managment. We present a case study in deploying a Business Process Management solution for Semiconductor Yield Engineering in a high-mix ASIC environment. We will present a description of the situation prior to deployment, a window into the development process and a valuation of the benefits.

  19. Systematics of Fission-Product Yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahl, A.C.

    2002-01-01

    Empirical equations representing systematics of fission-product yields have been derived from experimental data. The systematics give some insight into nuclear-structure effects on yields, and the equations allow estimation of yields from fission of any nuclide with atomic number Z F = 90 thru 98, mass number A F = 230 thru 252, and precursor excitation energy (projectile kinetic plus binding energies) PE = 0 thru ∼200 MeV--the ranges of these quantities for the fissioning nuclei investigated. Calculations can be made with the computer program CYFP. Estimates of uncertainties in the yield estimates are given by equations, also in CYFP, and range from ∼ 15% for the highest yield values to several orders of magnitude for very small yield values. A summation method is used to calculate weighted average parameter values for fast-neutron (∼ fission spectrum) induced fission reactions

  20. Systematics of Fission-Product Yields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.C. Wahl

    2002-05-01

    Empirical equations representing systematics of fission-product yields have been derived from experimental data. The systematics give some insight into nuclear-structure effects on yields, and the equations allow estimation of yields from fission of any nuclide with atomic number Z{sub F} = 90 thru 98, mass number A{sub F} = 230 thru 252, and precursor excitation energy (projectile kinetic plus binding energies) PE = 0 thru {approx}200 MeV--the ranges of these quantities for the fissioning nuclei investigated. Calculations can be made with the computer program CYFP. Estimates of uncertainties in the yield estimates are given by equations, also in CYFP, and range from {approx} 15% for the highest yield values to several orders of magnitude for very small yield values. A summation method is used to calculate weighted average parameter values for fast-neutron ({approx} fission spectrum) induced fission reactions.

  1. Effects of Drought Stress on Canola (Brassica napus L. Genotypes Yield and Yield Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Khani

    2018-02-01

    in SAS ver. 9.2 and Minitab ver. 17 to test for normality. Means were separated using Fishers Least Significant Difference (LSD set at a 0.05 significance level. Results and Discussion As expected, canola genotypes showed different responses to availability of water at flowering and pod setting growth stages. Results indicated that drought stress at flowering and pod setting growth stages had severe influence on canola genotypes yield and its components. L72, L146, L183, L210 and Karaj 2 genotypes tend to produce higher yields compared to other genotypes in no-stress conditions. Hence, these genotypes are suitable for planting in irrigated lands or place that enough precipitation downfall especially in their phenological growth stages. In contrast, these genotypes are not suitable for planting in arid or semi-arid regions like Iran, because the yields reduced severely in drought stress conditions. However, KR18, HW101, SW101 and Karaj3 genotypes could not produce as same yield as L72, L146, L183, L210 and Karaj2 genotypes in no-stress condition, they had minimum yield loss in susceptible phenological growth stages especially flowering growth stage compared to other genotypes. L183 genotype could produce yield similar to tolerant genotypes, but its yield loss was high in comparison with no stress condition. Conclusions Based on our findings in this study, KR18, HW101, SW101 and Karaj3 can be considered the best among other 18 genotypes in the selection of genotypes tolerant to drought stress occurring in flowering and pod setting stages. However, this study must be repeated in other climates and different drought stress conditions to acknowledge what we achieved in this research. After that, decision can be made about planting these genotypes tolerant in arid and semi-arid regions. In this regard, we can also do more comprehensive works can be done on breeding of these genotypes, because water crisis will be the future challenge in Iran.

  2. The Role of Incompleteness in Commodity Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi eKanamura

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a convenience yield-based pricing for commodity futures, which embeds incompleteness of commodity futures markets in convenience yields. By using the pricing method, we conduct empirical analyses of the prices of WTI crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX in order to assess the incompleteness of energy futures markets. We show that the fluctuation from the incompleteness is partly driven by the fluctuation from convenience yields. In addition, it is shown that the incompleteness of natural gas futures market is more highlighted than the incompleteness of WTI crude oil and heating oil futures markets. We apply the implied market price of risk from the NYMEX data to pricing an Asian call option written on WTI crude oil futures. Finally, we try to apply the market incompleteness analysis to the post-crisis periods after 2009.

  3. Yield stress determination of a physical gel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidt, Søren

    2013-01-01

    Pluronic F127 solutions form gels in water with high elastic moduli. Pluronic gels can, however, only withstand small deformations and stresses. Different steady shear and oscillatory methods traditionally used to determine yield stress values are compared. The results show that the yield stresses...... values of these gels depend on test type and measurement time, and no absolute yield stress value can be determined for these physical gels....

  4. Alumina Yield in the Bayer Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Den Hond, R.

    The alumina industry has historically been able to reduce alumina production costs, by increasing the liquor alumina yield. To know the potential for further yield increases, the phase diagram of the ternary system Na2O-Al2O -H2O at various temperature levels was analysed. It was found that the maximum theorical precipitation alumina yield is 160 g/l, while that for digestion was calculated to be 675 g/l.

  5. Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Glen B. Taksler

    2002-01-01

    This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990s show that idiosyncratic firm-level volatility can explain as much cross-sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps to explain recent increases in corporate bond yields. The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com.

  6. Status of fission product yield data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuninghame, J.G.

    1978-01-01

    The topics covered in this paper are: (a) cumulative yields in thermal neutron fission and in fast fission up to 14 MeV incident neutron energy, (b) dependence of the yields on incident neutron energy and spectrum, (c) independent yields, (d) charge dispersion and distribution, and (e) yields of light particles from ternary fission. The paper reviews information on these subjects for fission of actinides from 232 Th upwards with special emphasis on data published since the 1973 Bologna FPND Panel, compares data sets, and discusses the gaps still to be found in them. (author)

  7. Food for thought: pretty good multispecies yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rindorf, Anna; Dichmont, C. M.; Levin, P.S.

    2017-01-01

    good multidimensional yield to accommodate situations where the yield from a stock affects the ecosystem, economic and social benefits, or sustainability. We demonstrate in a European example that PGMY is a practical concept. As PGMY provides a safe operating space for management that adheres...... that broader ecosystem, economic, and social objectives are addressed. We investigate how the principles of a “pretty good yield” range of fishing mortalities assumed to provide >95% of the average yield for a single stock can be expanded to a pretty good multispecies yield (PGMY) space and further to pretty...

  8. Yield Mapping in Salix; Skoerdekartering av salix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Christoffer; Gilbertsson, Mikael; Rogstrand, Gustav; Thylen, Lars

    2004-09-01

    The most common species for energy forest production is willow. Willow is able to produce a large amount of biomass in a short period of time. Growing willow has a potential to render a good financial result for the farmer if cultivated on fields with the right conditions and plenty of water. Under the right conditions growing willow can give the farmer a net income of 3,000 SEK (about 430 USD) per hectare and year, which is something that common cereal crops cannot compete with. However, this is not the common case since willow is often grown as a substitute crop on fields where cereal crop yield is low. The aim of this study was to reveal if it is possible to measure yield variability in willow, and if it is possible to describe the reasons for yield variation both within the field but also between different fields. Yield mapping has been used in conventional farming for about a decade. The principles for yield mapping are to continuously measure the yield while registering location by the use of GPS when harvesting the field. The collected data is then used to search for spatial variations within the field, and to try to understand the reasons for this variation. Since there is currently no commercial equipment for yield mapping in willow, a yield mapping system had to be developed within this project. The new system was installed on a Claas Jaguar harvester. The principle for yield mapping on the Claas Jaguar harvester is to measure the distance between the feeding rollers. This distance is correlated to the flow through the harvester. The speed and position of the machine was registered using GPS. Knowing the working width of the harvester this information was used to calculate the yield. All collected data was stored on a PDA computer. Soil samples were also collected from the yield mapped fields. This was to be able to test yield against both physical and chemical soil parameters. The result shows that it is possible to measure spatial variations of yield in

  9. Improving the yield from fermentative hydrogen production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Jeremy T; Bagley, David M

    2007-05-01

    Efforts to increase H(2) yields from fermentative H(2) production include heat treatment of the inoculum, dissolved gas removal, and varying the organic loading rate. Although heat treatment kills methanogens and selects for spore-forming bacteria, the available evidence indicates H(2) yields are not maximized compared to bromoethanesulfonate, iodopropane, or perchloric acid pre-treatments and spore-forming acetogens are not killed. Operational controls (low pH, short solids retention time) can replace heat treatment. Gas sparging increases H(2) yields compared to un-sparged reactors, but no relationship exists between the sparging rate and H(2) yield. Lower sparging rates may improve the H(2) yield with less energy input and product dilution. The reasons why sparging improves H(2) yields are unknown, but recent measurements of dissolved H(2) concentrations during sparging suggest the assumption of decreased inhibition of the H(2)-producing enzymes is unlikely. Significant disagreement exists over the effect of organic loading rate (OLR); some studies show relatively higher OLRs improve H(2) yield while others show the opposite. Discovering the reasons for higher H(2) yields during dissolved gas removal and changes in OLR will help improve H(2) yields.

  10. Projected climate change impacts upon dew yield in the Mediterranean basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomaszkiewicz, M. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Abou Najm, M., E-mail: majdian@aub.edu.lb [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Beysens, D. [Physique et Mecanique des Milieux Heterogenes, UMR 7636 CNRS — ESPCI, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie — Universite Paris Diderot, 10 rue Vauquelin, 75005 Paris (France); Service des Basses Temperatures, CEA-Grenoble & Universite Joseph Fourier, Grenoble (France); OPUR, 60 rue Emeriau, 75015 Paris (France); Alameddine, I. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon); Bou Zeid, E. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); El-Fadel, M. [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Architecture, American University of Beirut, Beirut (Lebanon)

    2016-10-01

    Water scarcity is increasingly raising the need for non-conventional water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this context, atmospheric moisture can potentially be harvested in the form of dew, which is commonly disregarded from the water budget, although its impact may be significant when compared to rainfall during the dry season. In this study, a dew atlas for the Mediterranean region is presented illustrating dew yields using the yield data collected for the 2013 dry season. The results indicate that cumulative monthly dew yield in the region can exceed 2.8 mm at the end of the dry season and 1.5 mm during the driest months, compared to < 1 mm of rainfall during the same period in some areas. Dew yields were compared with potential evapotranspiration (PET) and actual evapotranspiration (ET) during summer months thus highlighting the role of dew to many native plants in the region. Furthermore, forecasted trends in temperature and relative humidity were used to estimate dew yields under future climatic scenarios. The results showed a 27% decline in dew yield during the critical summer months at the end of the century (2080). - Highlights: • Dew atlas for Mediterranean region is presented. • Cumulative dew yields can exceed 2.8 mm at the end of the dry season. • Dew yields compared with PET and ET show the role of dew to many native plants. • Forecasted trends under future climatic scenarios show a 27% decline in dew yield.

  11. Explaining global increases in water use efficiency: why have we overestimated responses to rising atmospheric CO(2 in natural forest ecosystems?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas C R Silva

    responses in future studies.

  12. Exoplanet Yield Estimation for Decadal Study Concepts using EXOSIMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Rhonda; Lowrance, Patrick; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    The anticipated upcoming large mission study concepts for the direct imaging of exo-earths present an exciting opportunity for exoplanet discovery and characterization. While these telescope concepts would also be capable of conducting a broad range of astrophysical investigations, the most difficult technology challenges are driven by the requirements for imaging exo-earths. The exoplanet science yield for these mission concepts will drive design trades and mission concept comparisons.To assist in these trade studies, the Exoplanet Exploration Program Office (ExEP) is developing a yield estimation tool that emphasizes transparency and consistent comparison of various design concepts. The tool will provide a parametric estimate of science yield of various mission concepts using contrast curves from physics-based model codes and Monte Carlo simulations of design reference missions using realistic constraints, such as solar avoidance angles, the observatory orbit, propulsion limitations of star shades, the accessibility of candidate targets, local and background zodiacal light levels, and background confusion by stars and galaxies. The python tool utilizes Dmitry Savransky's EXOSIMS (Exoplanet Open-Source Imaging Mission Simulator) design reference mission simulator that is being developed for the WFIRST Preliminary Science program. ExEP is extending and validating the tool for future mission concepts under consideration for the upcoming 2020 decadal review. We present a validation plan and preliminary yield results for a point design.

  13. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  14. A Remote Sensing-Derived Corn Yield Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Ranjay Man

    due to flood events during the growing season. Using a 2011 Missouri River flood event as a case study, field-level flood impact map on corn yield throughout the flooded regions was produced and an overall agreement of over 82.2% was achieved when compared with the reference impact map. The future research direction of this dissertation research would be to examine other major crops outside the Corn Belt region of the U.S.

  15. Crop yield response to increasing biochar rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The benefit or detriment to crop yield from biochar application varies with biochar type/rate, soil, crop, or climate. The objective of this research was to identify yield response of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), corn (Zea mayes L.), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) to hardwood biochar applied at...

  16. Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leombroni, Matteo; Vedolin, Andrea; Venter, Gyuri

    communication shocks have a significant impact, with intermediate maturities being affected the most; (ii) positive (negative) communication shocks significantly lower (raise) the yield spread between the peripheral and core countries; (iii) this cross-sectional difference arises after the 2008 financial crises......-for-yield investors....

  17. FEM growth and yield data monocultures - Poplar

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohren, G.M.J.; Goudzwaard, L.; Jansen, J.J.; Oosterbaan, A.; Oldenburger, J.F.; Ouden, den J.

    2016-01-01

    The current database is part of the FEM growth and yield database, a collection of growth and yield data from even-aged monocultures (douglas fir, common oak, poplar, Japanese Larch, Norway spruce, Scots pine, Corsican pine, Austrian pine, red oak and several other species, with only a few plots,

  18. Yield stress of alumina-zirconia suspensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramakrishnan, V.; Pradip; Malghan, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    The yield stress of concentrated suspensions of alumina, zirconia, and mixed alumina-zirconia powders was measured by the vane technique as a function of solids loading, relative amounts of alumina and zirconia, and pH. At the isoelectric point (IEP), the yield stress varied as the fourth power of the solids loading. The relative ratio of alumina and zirconia particles was important in determining the yield stress of the suspension at the IEP. The yield stress of single and mixed suspensions showed a marked variation with pH. The maximum value occurred at or near the IEP of the suspension. The effect of electrical double-layer forces on the yield stress can be described on the basis of the Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory. A normalized yield stress--that is, the ratio of the yield stress at a given pH to the yield stress at the IEP predicted by this model--showed good correlation with experimental data

  19. Reliable yields of public water-supply wells in the fractured-rock aquifers of central Maryland, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Patrick A.

    2018-02-01

    Most studies of fractured-rock aquifers are about analytical models used for evaluating aquifer tests or numerical methods for describing groundwater flow, but there have been few investigations on how to estimate the reliable long-term drought yields of individual hard-rock wells. During the drought period of 1998 to 2002, many municipal water suppliers in the Piedmont/Blue Ridge areas of central Maryland (USA) had to institute water restrictions due to declining well yields. Previous estimates of the yields of those wells were commonly based on extrapolating drawdowns, measured during short-term single-well hydraulic pumping tests, to the first primary water-bearing fracture in a well. The extrapolations were often made from pseudo-equilibrium phases, frequently resulting in substantially over-estimated well yields. The methods developed in the present study to predict yields consist of extrapolating drawdown data from infinite acting radial flow periods or by fitting type curves of other conceptual models to the data, using diagnostic plots, inverse analysis and derivative analysis. Available drawdowns were determined by the positions of transition zones in crystalline rocks or thin-bedded consolidated sandstone/limestone layers (reservoir rocks). Aquifer dewatering effects were detected by type-curve matching of step-test data or by breaks in the drawdown curves constructed from hydraulic tests. Operational data were then used to confirm the predicted yields and compared to regional groundwater levels to determine seasonal variations in well yields. Such well yield estimates are needed by hydrogeologists and water engineers for the engineering design of water systems, but should be verified by the collection of long-term monitoring data.

  20. Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

    2007-10-15

    In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

  1. Biogas and Methane Yield from Rye Grass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Vítěz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Biogas production in the Czech Republic has expanded substantially, including marginal regions for maize cultivation. Therefore, there are increasingly sought materials that could partially replace maize silage, as a basic feedstock, while secure both biogas production and its quality.Two samples of rye grass (Lolium multiflorum var. westerwoldicum silage with different solids content 21% and 15% were measured for biogas and methane yield. Rye grass silage with solid content of 15% reached an average specific biogas yield 0.431 m3·kg−1 of organic dry matter and an average specific methane yield 0.249 m3·kg−1 of organic dry matter. Rye grass silage with solid content 21% reached an average specific biogas yield 0.654 m3·kg−1 of organic dry matter and an average specific methane yield 0.399 m3·kg−1 of organic dry matter.

  2. Future measurements of deeply virtual Compton scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korotkov, V.A.; Nowak, W.D.

    2001-09-01

    Prospects for future measurements of Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering are studied using different simple models for parameterizations of generalized parton distributions (GPDs). Measurements of the lepton charge and lepton beam helicity asymmetry will yield important input for theoretical models towards the future extraction of GPDs. The kinematics of the HERMES experiment, complemented with a recoil detector, was adopted to arrive at realistic projected statistical uncertainties. (orig.)

  3. Examining the roles that changing harvested areas, closing yield-gaps, and increasing yield ceilings have had on crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M.; Ray, D. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    -weighted result of area and yield contributions for each country, at each time-step. As part of our research we will generate historic figures and tabular data for every country-crop combination. Phase 3: In the final phase of our research, we attempt to demonstrate how different yield performers (for example, those growing crops at the yield floor vs. the yield ceiling) have utilized different area/yield strategies to increase agricultural production. To group individual pixels into performance quintiles, we utilize binning strategies from previous spatial yield-gap assessments. The results from this step will illustrate how the yield ceiling has improved over time vis-à-vis improvements in the yield floor. As we look forward to a more sustainable and productive agricultural future, we hope the results of this global analysis of our agricultural past can be utilized to identify both optimal and adverse strategies for agricultural growth.

  4. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature-precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 %) than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %). Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate-crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  5. Future plans at ISOLDE

    CERN Document Server

    Lindroos, M

    2003-01-01

    The CERN ISOLDE facility has operated for over 30 years delivering beams of exotic ions to an ever-growing user community. The facility went through a major up-grade in the early 1990s with the move from the 600 MeV synchrocyclotron to the 1 GeV PS-Booster proton synchrotron. This was followed by a primary proton beam energy up grade to 1.4 GeV in 1999. Lately, an important step forward was taken with the start of the REX-ISOLDE experiment for charge breeding and post acceleration of exotic ions. CERN has recently decided on a consolidation project for the facility to assure that the required number of shifts can be delivered in the future. An overview will be given of the on-going consolidation and development programme and its implications on the physics programme, in particular the REX-ISOLDE post accelerator experiment. An important parameter for a better yield of very exotic elements is the primary proton beam intensity, beam energy and time structure. The possible short-term improvements of, in particul...

  6. Effects of phosphorus and zinc applications on the yields and yields ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of phosphorus and zinc applications on the yields and yields components of sole early maturing maize ( Zea mays ) and bambaranut ( Vigna subterranean Thour. ) and in intercrop under southern guinea savannah ecology zone.

  7. Yield and competition in barley variety mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari Jokinen

    1991-09-01

    Full Text Available Competition between spring barley varieties and yield performance of two-, three and four-variety mixtures were studied in two replacement series field experiments. In the first experiment, repeated in three successive years (1983 —85 the components were the six-row varieties Agneta, Arra, Hja-673 and Porno. In the second experiment (1984, including two nitrogen doses (50 and 100 kgN/ha, both six-row (Agneta, Pomo and two-row (Ida, Kustaa varieties were used. Arra in the first and Agneta in the second experiment were the most competitive varieties. The results suggested that the fast growth of Arra at the beginning promoted its competitive ability. Increase in available nitrogen usually strengthened the competitiveness of Agneta. The observed competitive differences between varieties were not related to the earliness of a variety, neither to the morphological characters (two- and six-row varieties nor to the grain yield of a variety grown alone. The competitive ability was not always a stable character, the dominant suppression relationship varying from one environment to another (e.g. growing season, nitrogen dose. The observed overyielding was not statistically significant. The ratio of actual to expected yield and the relative yield total of several mixtures exceeded slightly one. As a conclusion, the yield advantage of mixtures was marginal. As a rule, the mixtures were not more stable than monocultures as determined by the coefficient of variation. However, the yield of some mixtures varied less than the yield of the most stable monoculture.

  8. Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

    2018-09-01

    Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Trading forests for yields in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Holly

    2012-03-01

    plantations could be further analyzed by considering whether they help depress global prices, reducing incentives to expand elsewhere (Angelsen and Kaimowitz 2001). The significance of the study goes well beyond the bounds of Ucayli, and highlights risks to Amazonian forests from oil palm expansion (Butler and Laurance 2010). Oil palm is an astoundingly profitable and productive crop, with typical oil yields more than ten times that of soy. Some have even argued that oil palm is innately land sparing because it would take substantially more land for all other oil-bearing crops to provide the same output. However, most production gains from oil palm have occurred through increased area rather than increased yield, and in many cases expansion has been through forest clearing (Koh and Wilcove 2008, Gibbs et al 2010). The findings of Gutiérrez-Vélez et al (2011) are particularly significant considering that the booming palm oil sectors in Indonesia and Malaysia, which currently produce over 80% of the world's product, are facing a host of pressures that constrain future area expansion. Malaysia has little remaining land suited for plantations and Indonesia faces intensifying international scrutiny over the future of their forestlands. Consequently, the Amazon basin is widely considered the new frontier, with more than half of its forest area suitable for palm oil cultivation (Butler and Laurance 2010) and growing incentives from Brazil's Program for the Sustainable Production of Oil Palm, which aims to utilize degraded lands and spur reforestation efforts. Their results also illuminate another key issue, namely the constraints faced by large-scale producers when they seek to expand plantation area. Emerging demand-side conservation efforts, such as the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), assume that already cleared and non-forested lands are freely available. Gutiérrez-Vélez et al (2011) hint at the obstacles to using such cleared lands, which is that they are

  10. Slope Controls Grain Yield and Climatic Yield in Mountainous Yunnan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, X.; Rong, L.; Gu, Z.; Feng, D.

    2017-12-01

    Mountainous regions are increasingly vulnerable to food insecurity because of limited arable land, growing population pressure, and climate change. Development of sustainable mountain agriculture will require an increased understanding of the effects of environmental factors on grain and climatic yields. The objective of this study was to explore the relationships between actual grain yield, climatic yield, and environmental factors in a mountainous region in China. We collected data on the average grain yield per unit area in 119 counties in Yunnan province from 1985 to 2012, and chose 17 environmental factors for the same period. Our results showed that actual grain yield ranged from 1.43 to 6.92 t·ha-1, and the climatic yield ranged from -0.15 to -0.01 t·ha-1. Lower climatic yield but higher grain yield was generally found in central areas and at lower slopes and elevations in the western and southwestern counties of Yunnan province. Higher climatic yield but lower grain yield were found in northwestern parts of Yunnan province on steep slopes. Annual precipation and temperature had a weak influence on the climatic yield. Slope explained 44.62 and 26.29% of the variation in grain yield and climatic yield. The effects of topography on grain and climatic yields were greater than climatic factors. Slope was the most important environmental variable for the variability in climatic and grain yields in the mountainous Yunnan province due to the highly heterogeneous topographic conditions. Conversion of slopes to terraces in areas with higher climatic yields is an effective way to maintain grain production in response to climate variability. Additionally, soil amendments and soil and water conservation measures should be considered to maintain soil fertility and aid in sustainable development in central areas, and in counties at lower slopes and elevations in western and southwestern Yunnan province.

  11. Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

    2014-05-01

    To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Exclusive nonleptonic B{yields}VV decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barik, N [Department of Physics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar-751004 (India); Naimuddin, Sk [Department of Physics, Maharishi College of Natural Law, Bhubaneswar-751007 (India); Dash, P C [Department of Physics, Prananath Autonomous College, Khurda-752057 (India); Kar, Susmita [Department of Physics, North Orissa University, Baripada-757003 (India)

    2009-07-01

    The exclusive two-body nonleptonic B{yields}VV decays are investigated, within the factorization approximation, in the relativistic independent quark model based on a confining potential in the scalar-vector harmonic form. The branching ratios and the longitudinal polarization fraction (R{sub L}) are calculated yielding the model predictions in agreement with experiment. Our predicted CP-odd fraction (R{sub perpendicular}) for B{yields}D*D{sub (s)}* decays are in general agreement with other model predictions and within the existing experimental limit.

  13. Impact of sow and litter characteristics on colostrum yield, time for onset of lactation, and milk yield of sows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vadmand, Camilla Nielsen; Larsen, Uffe Krogh; Hansen, Christian Fink

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to estimate the concurrent impact of sow and litter characteristics on sow productivity. Sow productivity was defined as colostrum yield (CY), onset of lactation (the time point when milk secretion increased steeply, approximately 31 h postpartum), transition milk...... litter equlization, none of the observed independent variables were related with time for onset of lactation. In conclusion, when maximizing sow productivity in the future, it may be rewarding to pay attention to sow productivity in the colostrum period and around time for onset of lactation, and special...

  14. yield and yield componemts of extra early maize (zea mays l.)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SHARIFAI

    maize crop and improve the soil structures and chemical nutrients of the soil. The significant interaction between intra-row spacing and poultry manure on cob diameter, 100 grain weight and grain yield showed the importance of poultry manure on yield and yield components of maize crop. Poultry manure increases both ...

  15. Using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate sugarcane yield and yield components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) yield and yield components are important traits for growers and scientists to evaluate and select cultivars. Collection of these yield data would be labor intensive and time consuming in the early selection stages of sugarcane breeding cultivar development programs with a ...

  16. Effects of cutting frequency on alfalfa yield and yield components in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of cutting frequency on alfalfa yield and yield components in Songnen Plain, Northeast China. J Chen, F Tang, R Zhu, C Gao, G Di, Y Zhang. Abstract. The productivity and quality of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is strongly influenced by cutting frequency (F). To clarify that the yield and quality of alfalfa if affected by F, ...

  17. Inheritance of grain yield and its correlation with yield components in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-03-19

    Mar 19, 2014 ... 7 × 7 incomplete diallel cross of seven wheat parents during the crop season of 2009 to 2010. Mean square of general ... Genetic background and yield traits of the seven parents. Parent. Pedigree. Released year ..... Correlation and path analysis for yield and yield contributing characters in wheat (Triticum ...

  18. Value of the future: Discounting in random environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Geanakoplos, John; Masoliver, Jaume; Montero, Miquel; Perelló, Josep

    2015-05-01

    We analyze how to value future costs and benefits when they must be discounted relative to the present. We introduce the subject for the nonspecialist and take into account the randomness of the economic evolution by studying the discount function of three widely used processes for the dynamics of interest rates: Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, Feller, and log-normal. Besides obtaining exact expressions for the discount function and simple asymptotic approximations, we show that historical average interest rates overestimate long-run discount rates and that this effect can be large. In other words, long-run discount rates should be substantially less than the average rate observed in the past, otherwise any cost-benefit calculation would be biased in favor of the present and against interventions that may protect the future.

  19. Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiying; Shao, Liwei; Chen, Suying

    2016-01-01

    The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP) is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only) 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP. PMID:27612146

  20. Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuwei Liu

    Full Text Available The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP.

  1. Assessing the Impact of Air Pollution on Grain Yield of Winter Wheat - A Case Study in the North China Plain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiuwei; Sun, Hongyong; Feike, Til; Zhang, Xiying; Shao, Liwei; Chen, Suying

    2016-01-01

    The major wheat production region of China the North China Plain (NCP) is seriously affected by air pollution. In this study, yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was analyzed with respect to the potential impact of air pollution index under conditions of optimal crop management in the NCP from 2001 to 2012. Results showed that air pollution was especially serious at the early phase of winter wheat growth significantly influencing various weather factors. However, no significant correlations were found between final grain yield and the weather factors during the early growth phase. In contrast, significant correlations were found between grain yield and total solar radiation gap, sunshine hour gap, diurnal temperature range and relative humidity during the late growing phase. To disentangle the confounding effects of various weather factors, and test the isolated effect of air pollution induced changes in incoming global solar radiation on yield under ceteris paribus conditions, crop model based scenario-analysis was conducted. The simulation results of the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model indicated that a reduction in radiation by 10% might cause a yield reduction by more than 10%. Increasing incident radiation by 10% would lead to yield increases of (only) 7%, with the effects being much stronger during the late growing phase compared to the early growing phase. However, there is evidence that APSIM overestimates the effect of air pollution induced changes on radiation, as it does not consider the changes in radiative properties of solar insulation, i.e. the relative increase of diffuse over direct radiation, which may partly alleviate the negative effects of reduced total radiation by air pollution. Concluding, the present study could not detect a significantly negative effect of air pollution on wheat yields in the NCP.

  2. On the yield stress of complex materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calderas, F.; Herrera-Valencia, E. E.; Sanchez-Solis, A.; Manero, O.; Medina-Torres, L.; Renteria, A.; Sanchez-Olivares, G.

    2013-11-01

    In the present work, the yield stress of complex materials is analyzed and modeled using the Bautista-Manero-Puig (BMP) constitutive equation, consisting of the upper-convected Maxwell equation coupled to a kinetic equation to account for the breakdown and reformation of the fluid structure. BMP model predictions for a complex fluid in different flow situations are analyzed and compared with yield stress predictions of other rheological models, and with experiments on fluids that exhibit yield stresses. It is shown that one of the main features of the BMP model is that it predicts a real yield stress (elastic solid or Hookean behavior) as one of the material parameters, the zero shear-rate fluidity, is zero. In addition, the transition to fluid-like behavior is continuous, as opposed to predictions of more empirical models.

  3. Hydrogeological Characteristics of Groundwater Yield in Shallow ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrogeological Characteristics of Groundwater Yield in Shallow Wells of the ... of Water Resources and Lower Niger River Basin Development Authority in Ilorin. ... moment correlation, multiple and stepwise multiple regression analysis.

  4. Accelerated yield learning in agressive lithography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, Kevin M.; Ashkenaz, Scott M.; Chen, Xing; Lord, Patrick J.; Merrill, Mark A.; Quattrini, Rich; Wiley, James N.

    2000-06-01

    As exposure wavelengths decrease from 248 nm to 193, 157, and even 13 nm (EUV), small process defects can cause collapse of the lithographic process window near the limits of resolution, particularly for the gate and contact structures in high- performance devices. Such sensitivity poses a challenge for lithography process module control. In this work, we show that yield loss can be caused by a combination of macro, micro, CD, and overlay defects. A defect is defined as any yield- affecting process variation. Each defect, regardless of cause, is assumed to have a specific 'kill potential.' The accuracy of the lithographic yield model can be improved by identifying those defects with the highest kill potential or, more importantly, those that pose the highest economic risk. Such economic considerations have led us to develop a simple heuristic model for understanding sampling strategies in defect metrology and for linking metrology capability to yield and profitability.

  5. Agricultural yields of irradiated sewage sludge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magnavacca, Cecilia; Miranda, E.; Sanchez, M.

    1999-01-01

    Lettuce, radish and ryegrass have been used to study the nitrogen fertilization of soil by sewage sludge. The results show that the irradiated sludge improve by 15 - 30 % the production yield, compared to the non-irradiated sludge. (author)

  6. Enhancing the muon-catalyzed fusion yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, S.E.

    1987-01-01

    Much has been learned about muon-catalyzed fusion since the last conference on emerging nuclear energy systems. Here the authors consider what they have learned about enhancing the muon-catalyzed fusion energy yield

  7. Independent isomer yield ratio of 90Rb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeder, P.L.; Warner, R.A.; Ford, G.P.; Willmes, H.

    1985-05-01

    The independent isomer yield ratio for 90 Rb from thermal neutron fission of 235 U has been measured by use of a new technique involving a pulsed reactor and an on-line mass spectrometer facility. The apparent isomer yield ratio was measured for different ion collection time intervals and extrapolated to zero collection time to eliminate interference from 90 Kr decay. The observed isomer yield ratio of 8.7 +- 1.0 is one of the largest ratios measured for a low energy fission process. However, a statistical model analysis shows that the average angular momentum ( = 4.5) deduced from this isomer yield ratio is consistent with average angular momentum for other products from low energy fission. 7 refs

  8. Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leombroni, Matteo; Vedolin, Andrea; Venter, Gyuri

    countries. We study two explanations for this finding, revelation of the ECB’s private information and credit risk, and argue that neither channel can explain the effect on yield spreads. Motivated by this, we consider an alternative explanation in which central bank communication affects the aggregate...... demand due to the presence of reaching-for-yield investors. We show that a resulting risk premium channel helps to rationalize our findings....

  9. Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leombroni, Matteo; Vedolin, Andrea; Venter, Gyuri

    versus peripheral countries. We study two explanations for this finding, revelation of the ECB's private information and credit risk, and argue that neither channel can explain the effect on yield spreads. Motivated by this, we consider an alternative explanation in which central bank communication can...... induce demand shocks for bonds due to the presence of reaching-for-yield investors. We show that a resulting risk premium channel helps to rationalize our findings....

  10. Interactive effects of pests increase seed yield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagic, Vesna; Riggi, Laura Ga; Ekbom, Barbara; Malsher, Gerard; Rusch, Adrien; Bommarco, Riccardo

    2016-04-01

    Loss in seed yield and therefore decrease in plant fitness due to simultaneous attacks by multiple herbivores is not necessarily additive, as demonstrated in evolutionary studies on wild plants. However, it is not clear how this transfers to crop plants that grow in very different conditions compared to wild plants. Nevertheless, loss in crop seed yield caused by any single pest is most often studied in isolation although crop plants are attacked by many pests that can cause substantial yield losses. This is especially important for crops able to compensate and even overcompensate for the damage. We investigated the interactive impacts on crop yield of four insect pests attacking different plant parts at different times during the cropping season. In 15 oilseed rape fields in Sweden, we estimated the damage caused by seed and stem weevils, pollen beetles, and pod midges. Pest pressure varied drastically among fields with very low correlation among pests, allowing us to explore interactive impacts on yield from attacks by multiple species. The plant damage caused by each pest species individually had, as expected, either no, or a negative impact on seed yield and the strongest negative effect was caused by pollen beetles. However, seed yield increased when plant damage caused by both seed and stem weevils was high, presumably due to the joint plant compensatory reaction to insect attack leading to overcompensation. Hence, attacks by several pests can change the impact on yield of individual pest species. Economic thresholds based on single species, on which pest management decisions currently rely, may therefore result in economically suboptimal choices being made and unnecessary excessive use of insecticides.

  11. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

  12. N-acetylcysteine increased rice yield

    OpenAIRE

    NOZULAIDI, MOHD; JAHAN, MD SARWAR; KHAIRI, MOHD; KHANDAKER, MOHAMMAD MONERUZZAMAN; NASHRIYAH, MAT; KHANIF, YUSOP MOHD

    2015-01-01

    N-acetylcysteine (NAC) biosynthesized reduced glutathione (GSH), which maintains redox homeostasis in plants under normal and stressful conditions. To justify the effects of NAC on rice production, we measured yield parameters, chlorophyll (Chl) content, minimum Chl fluorescence (Fo), maximum Chl fluorescence (Fm), quantum yield (Fv/Fm), net photosynthesis rate (Pn), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and relative water content (RWC). Four treatments, N1G0 (nitrogen (N) with no NAC), ...

  13. Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rurinda, Jairos; van Wijk, Mark T; Mapfumo, Paul; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E

    2015-12-01

    There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Water limits to closing yield gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Garrassino, Francesco; Chiarelli, Davide; Seveso, Antonio; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Agricultural intensification is often seen as a suitable approach to meet the growing demand for agricultural products and improve food security. It typically entails the use of fertilizers, new cultivars, irrigation, and other modern technology. In regions of the world affected by seasonal or chronic water scarcity, yield gap closure is strongly dependent on irrigation (blue water). Global yield gap assessments have often ignored whether the water required to close the yield gap is locally available. Here we perform a gridded global analysis (10 km resolution) of the blue water consumption that is needed annually to close the yield gap worldwide and evaluate the associated pressure on renewable freshwater resources. We find that, to close the yield gap, human appropriation of freshwater resources for irrigation would have to increase at least by 146%. Most study countries would experience at least a doubling in blue water requirement, with 71% of the additional blue water being required by only four crops - maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Further, in some countries (e.g., Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen) the total volume of blue water required for yield gap closure would exceed sustainable levels of freshwater consumption (i.e., 40% of total renewable surface and groundwater resources).

  15. FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

    2014-12-01

    Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

  16. Genotype x environment interaction and stability analysis for yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    etc

    2015-05-06

    . Combined analysis of variance (ANOVA) for yield and yield components revealed highly significant .... yield stability among varieties, multi-location trials with ... Mean grain yield (kg/ha) of 17 Kabuli-type chickpea genotypes ...

  17. Is paediatric trauma severity overestimated at triage?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    DO, H Q; Hesselfeldt, R; Steinmetz, J

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Severe paediatric trauma is rare, and pre-hospital and local hospital personnel experience with injured children is often limited. We hypothesised that a higher proportion of paediatric trauma victims were taken to the regional trauma centre (TC). METHODS: This is an observational...... follow-up study that involves one level I TC and seven local hospitals. We included paediatric (trauma patients with a driving distance to the TC > 30 minutes. The primary end-point was the proportion of trauma patients arriving in the TC. RESULTS: We included 1934...... trauma patients, 238 children and 1696 adults. A total of 33/238 children (13.9%) vs. 304/1696 adults (17.9%) were transported to the TC post-injury (P = 0.14). Among these, children were significantly less injured than adults [median Injury Severity Score (ISS) 9 vs. 14, P 

  18. Meiofauna metabolism in suboxic sediments: currently overestimated.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrike Braeckman

    Full Text Available Oxygen is recognized as a structuring factor of metazoan communities in marine sediments. The importance of oxygen as a controlling factor on meiofauna (32 µm-1 mm in size respiration rates is however less clear. Typically, respiration rates are measured under oxic conditions, after which these rates are used in food web studies to quantify the role of meiofauna in sediment carbon turnover. Sediment oxygen concentration ([O(2] is generally far from saturated, implying that (1 current estimates of the role of meiofauna in carbon cycling may be biased and (2 meiofaunal organisms need strategies to survive in oxygen-stressed environments. Two main survival strategies are often hypothesized: 1 frequent migration to oxic layers and 2 morphological adaptation. To evaluate these hypotheses, we (1 used a model of oxygen turnover in the meiofauna body as a function of ambient [O(2], and (2 performed respiration measurements at a range of [O(2] conditions. The oxygen turnover model predicts a tight coupling between ambient [O(2] and meiofauna body [O(2] with oxygen within the body being consumed in seconds. This fast turnover favors long and slender organisms in sediments with low ambient [O(2] but even then frequent migration between suboxic and oxic layers is for most organisms not a viable strategy to alleviate oxygen limitation. Respiration rates of all measured meiofauna organisms slowed down in response to decreasing ambient [O(2], with Nematoda displaying the highest metabolic sensitivity for declining [O(2] followed by Foraminifera and juvenile Gastropoda. Ostracoda showed a behavioral stress response when ambient [O(2] reached a critical level. Reduced respiration at low ambient [O(2] implies that meiofauna in natural, i.e. suboxic, sediments must have a lower metabolism than inferred from earlier respiration rates conducted under oxic conditions. The implications of these findings are discussed for the contribution of meiofauna to carbon cycling in marine sediments.

  19. Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botchway, E.

    2016-12-01

    In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

  20. Increased SBPase activity improves photosynthesis and grain yield in wheat grown in greenhouse conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driever, Steven M; Simkin, Andrew J; Alotaibi, Saqer; Fisk, Stuart J; Madgwick, Pippa J; Sparks, Caroline A; Jones, Huw D; Lawson, Tracy; Parry, Martin A J; Raines, Christine A

    2017-09-26

    To meet the growing demand for food, substantial improvements in yields are needed. This is particularly the case for wheat, where global yield has stagnated in recent years. Increasing photosynthesis has been identified as a primary target to achieve yield improvements. To increase leaf photosynthesis in wheat, the level of the Calvin-Benson cycle enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-biphosphatase (SBPase) has been increased through transformation and expression of a Brachypodium distachyon SBPase gene construct. Transgenic lines with increased SBPase protein levels and activity were grown under greenhouse conditions and showed enhanced leaf photosynthesis and increased total biomass and dry seed yield. This showed the potential of improving yield potential by increasing leaf photosynthesis in a crop species such as wheat. The results are discussed with regard to future strategies for further improvement of photosynthesis in wheat.This article is part of the themed issue 'Enhancing photosynthesis in crop plants: targets for improvement'. © 2017 The Authors.

  1. Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Yanqing; Song, Wei; Deng, Xiangzheng

    2018-04-01

    Human-induced land use changes over short time scales have significant impacts on water yield, especially in China because of the rapid social economic development. As the biggest developing country of the world, China's economy is expected to continuously grow with a high speed in the next few decades. Therefore, what kind of land use changes will occur in the future in China? How these changes will influence the water yields? To address this issue, we assessed the water yields in the karst mountain area of China during the periods of 1990-2010 and 2010-2030 by coupling an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. Three different land use scenarios i.e. natural growth, economic development, and ecological protection, were developed in 2030 using the CLUE model. It was concluded that, given land use changes between 1990 and 2010, total water yields in the karst mountain area are characterized by a trend towards fluctuating reduction. However, total water yields of 2030 in the economic development scenario revealed an increase of 1.25% compared to the actual water yields in 2010. The economy development in karst mountain areas of China in the future has a slight positive influence on water yields.

  2. A comparative ideotype, yield component and cultivation value analysis for spring wheat adaptation in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heikki Laurila

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study Mixed structural covariance, Path and Cultivation Value analyses and the CERES-Wheat crop model were used to evaluate vegetation and yield component variation affecting yield potential between different high-latitude (> 60° N lat. and mid-European (< 60° N lat. spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. genotypes currently cultivated in southern Finland. Path modeling results from this study suggest that especially grains/ear, harvest index (HI and maximum 1000 kernel weight were significant factors defining the highest yield potential. Mixed and Cultivation value modeling results suggest that when compared with genotypes introduced for cultivation before 1990s, modern spring wheat genotypes have a significantly higher yielding capacity, current high yielding mid-European genotypes even exceeding the 5 t ha-1 non-potential baseline yield level (yb. Because of a forthcoming climate change, the new high yielding wheat genotypes have to adapt for elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 growing conditions in northern latitudes. The optimized ideotype profiles derived from the generic high-latitude and mid-European genotypes are presented in the results. High-latitude and mid-European ideotype profiles with factors estimating the effects of concurrent elevated CO2 and temperature levels with photoperiodical daylength effects can be utilized when designing future high yielding ideotypes adapted to future growing conditions. The CERES-Wheat ideotype modeling results imply, that with new high yielding mid-European ideotypes, the non-potential baseline yield (yb would be on average 5150 kg ha-1 level (+ 108 % vs. new high-latitude ideotypes (yb 4770 kg ha-1, 100% grown under the elevated CO2(700ppm×temperature(+3ºC growing conditions projected by the year 2100 climate change scenario in southern Finland.

  3. Soybean growth and yield under cover crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscila de Oliveira

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of cover crops in no-tillage systems can provide better conditions for the development of soybean plants with positive effects on grain yield and growth analysis techniques allow researchers to characterize and understand the behavior of soybean plants under different straw covers. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterize, using growth analysis, yield components and agronomic performance of soybean under common bean, Brachiaria brizantha and pearl millet straws. The experiment was performed on a soil under cerrado in the municipality of Santo Antônio de Goiás, GO. The experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design with three treatments (cover crops and five replications. Soybean grain yield was lower in the B. brizantha straw treatment (3,708 kg ha-1 than both in the pearl millet (4.772 kg ha-1 and common bean straw treatments (5,200 kg ha-1. The soybean growth analysis in B. brizantha, pearl millet and common bean allowed characterizing the variation in the production of dry matter of leaves, stems, pods and total and leaf area index that provided different grain yields. The cover crop directly affects the soybean grain yield.

  4. Future plans at ISOLDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindroos, Mats

    2003-01-01

    The CERN ISOLDE facility has operated for over 30 years delivering beams of exotic ions to an ever-growing user community. The facility went through a major up-grade in the early 1990s with the move from the 600 MeV synchrocyclotron to the 1 GeV PS-Booster proton synchrotron. This was followed by a primary proton beam energy up grade to 1.4 GeV in 1999. Lately, an important step forward was taken with the start of the REX-ISOLDE experiment for charge breeding and post-acceleration of exotic ions. CERN has recently decided on a consolidation project for the facility to assure that the required number of shifts can be delivered in the future. An overview will be given of the on-going consolidation and development programme and its implications on the physics programme, in particular the REX-ISOLDE post-accelerator experiment. An important parameter for a better yield of very exotic elements is the primary proton beam intensity, beam energy and time structure. The possible short-term improvements of, in particular, beam intensity will be discussed in some detail. While the main effort at CERN today goes towards the completion of the LHC, some resources have been found for accelerator R and D. A possible project is a new high intensity proton source at CERN, the superconducting proton linac, which could open the door to the construction of a next generation radioactive beam facility. The possible primary beam characteristics and some design considerations and their implications for such a facility will be discussed. Some ideas for the facility itself, such as the use of antiprotons and muons as new probes, production of a neutrino beam from stored radioactive ions and a preliminary design for a low energy storage ring, will be presented

  5. The future of Plowshare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, John S [Division of Peaceful Nuclear Explosives, U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (United States)

    1970-05-01

    Since the last general symposium on Plowshare in 1964, significant progress has been made 1) in improving our understanding of explosion phenomenology, 2) in developing suitable explosive designs, and 3) in applying the technology to specific applications in the industrial, public works and scientific areas. The papers to be presented at this symposium will discuss in depth the progress that has been made in each of these areas, and to some degree, what still remains to be accomplished, so I will not attempt to go into detail here. However, I would like to take a few minutes to summarize where the technology stands today, where we believe it is going, and most importantly, how we hope to get there. In the excavation area, both Cabriolet and Schooner extended cratering experience in hard rock to higher yields. We also conducted Project Buggy, the first nuclear row-charge experiment. Buggy involved the simultaneous detonation of five 1.1 kiloton nuclear explosives, spaced 150 feet apart at a depth of 135 feet. The explosion created a smooth channel about 865 feet long, 254 feet wide and 70 feet deep. Two very significant contributions from Buggy were information on spacing between the explosives and on lip height. Buggy demonstrated that explosives can probably be spaced somewhat farther apart than previously thought without significantly affecting the smoothness of the channel. This could result in considerable savings in future row-charge excavations. We were also particularly pleased that, as predicted, the height of the lips at the end of the ditch was less than half the height of the lips on the sides - some 14 feet versus 41 feet. This is extremely important for the connecting of ditches. The data obtained from Buggy, Schooner and other experiments have been used to extend and refine our predictive capability.

  6. The future of Plowshare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, John S.

    1970-01-01

    Since the last general symposium on Plowshare in 1964, significant progress has been made 1) in improving our understanding of explosion phenomenology, 2) in developing suitable explosive designs, and 3) in applying the technology to specific applications in the industrial, public works and scientific areas. The papers to be presented at this symposium will discuss in depth the progress that has been made in each of these areas, and to some degree, what still remains to be accomplished, so I will not attempt to go into detail here. However, I would like to take a few minutes to summarize where the technology stands today, where we believe it is going, and most importantly, how we hope to get there. In the excavation area, both Cabriolet and Schooner extended cratering experience in hard rock to higher yields. We also conducted Project Buggy, the first nuclear row-charge experiment. Buggy involved the simultaneous detonation of five 1.1 kiloton nuclear explosives, spaced 150 feet apart at a depth of 135 feet. The explosion created a smooth channel about 865 feet long, 254 feet wide and 70 feet deep. Two very significant contributions from Buggy were information on spacing between the explosives and on lip height. Buggy demonstrated that explosives can probably be spaced somewhat farther apart than previously thought without significantly affecting the smoothness of the channel. This could result in considerable savings in future row-charge excavations. We were also particularly pleased that, as predicted, the height of the lips at the end of the ditch was less than half the height of the lips on the sides - some 14 feet versus 41 feet. This is extremely important for the connecting of ditches. The data obtained from Buggy, Schooner and other experiments have been used to extend and refine our predictive capability

  7. Yield stress independent column buckling curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stan, Tudor‐Cristian; Jönsson, Jeppe

    2017-01-01

    of the yield stress is to some inadequate degree taken into account in the Eurocode by specifying that steel grades of S460 and higher all belong to a common set of “raised” buckling curves. This is not satisfying as it can be shown theoretically that the current Eurocode formulation misses an epsilon factor......Using GMNIA and shell finite element modelling of steel columns it is ascertained that the buckling curves for given imperfections and residual stresses are not only dependent on the relative slenderness ratio and the cross section shape but also on the magnitude of the yield stress. The influence...... in the definition of the normalised imperfection magnitudes. By introducing this factor it seems that the GMNIA analysis and knowledge of the independency of residual stress levels on the yield stress can be brought together and give results showing consistency between numerical modelling and a simple modified...

  8. Principal component regression for crop yield estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Suryanarayana, T M V

    2016-01-01

    This book highlights the estimation of crop yield in Central Gujarat, especially with regard to the development of Multiple Regression Models and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models using climatological parameters as independent variables and crop yield as a dependent variable. It subsequently compares the multiple linear regression (MLR) and PCR results, and discusses the significance of PCR for crop yield estimation. In this context, the book also covers Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a statistical procedure used to reduce a number of correlated variables into a smaller number of uncorrelated variables called principal components (PC). This book will be helpful to the students and researchers, starting their works on climate and agriculture, mainly focussing on estimation models. The flow of chapters takes the readers in a smooth path, in understanding climate and weather and impact of climate change, and gradually proceeds towards downscaling techniques and then finally towards development of ...

  9. Particle debonding using different yield criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legarth, Brian Nyvang; Kuroda, Mitsutoshi

    2004-01-01

    Effects of plastic anisotropy in relation to debonding of rigid inclusions embedded in an elastic-viscoplastic metal are studied. Full finite strain analyses are carried out for plane cells assuming plane stress or plane strain. The overall stress strain response is calculated, when the cell......-matrix debonding. Keeping all material parameters fixed, the material response of the plane strain cell is considerably affected, due to debonding at a much reduced overall plastic strain compared to the corresponding plane stress cell. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved....... extent and shape of the particular yield function considered. The required overall straining of the cell for debonding initiation is related to the extent of the yield surfaces, since a high yield stress promotes debonding. Additionally, the maximum overall stress level for the cell is lower for the Hill...

  10. Corn yield under subirrigation and future climate scenarios in the Maumee river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subirrigation has been proposed as a water table management practice to maintain appropriate soil water content during periods of high crop water demand on subsurface drained croplands in the Corn Belt. Subirrigation takes advantage of the subsurface drainage systems already installed on drained agr...

  11. Satellite-based assessment of grassland yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K.; Siegmund, R.; Wagner, M.; Hartmann, S.

    2015-04-01

    Cutting date and frequency are important parameters determining grassland yields in addition to the effects of weather, soil conditions, plant composition and fertilisation. Because accurate and area-wide data of grassland yields are currently not available, cutting frequency can be used to estimate yields. In this project, a method to detect cutting dates via surface changes in radar images is developed. The combination of this method with a grassland yield model will result in more reliable and regional-wide numbers of grassland yields. For the test-phase of the monitoring project, a study area situated southeast of Munich, Germany, was chosen due to its high density of managed grassland. For determining grassland cutting robust amplitude change detection techniques are used evaluating radar amplitude or backscatter statistics before and after the cutting event. CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A data were analysed. All detected cuts were verified according to in-situ measurements recorded in a GIS database. Although the SAR systems had various acquisition geometries, the amount of detected grassland cut was quite similar. Of 154 tested grassland plots, covering in total 436 ha, 116 and 111 cuts were detected using CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A radar data, respectively. Further improvement of radar data processes as well as additional analyses with higher sample number and wider land surface coverage will follow for optimisation of the method and for validation and generalisation of the results of this feasibility study. The automation of this method will than allow for an area-wide and cost efficient cutting date detection service improving grassland yield models.

  12. Effect of Nitrogen and Phosphorus on Yield and Yield Components of Sesame (Sesamumindicum L.)

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Ibrahim; Manzoor Hussain; Ahmad Khan; Yousaf Jamal; Muhammad Ali; Muhammad Faisal Anwar Malik

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen is a structural component of chlorophyll and protein therefore adequate supply of nitrogen is beneficial for both carbohydrates and protein metabolism as it promotes cell division and cell enlargement, resulting in more leaf area and thus ensuring good seed and dry matter yield. Theexperiment entitled effect of nitrogen and phosphorus on yield and yield components of sesame were conducted at New Developmental Farm of the University of Agriculture Peshawar during kharif 2013. Randomiz...

  13. Quality and Yield of Cannabis Products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kastorp, Grith; Lindholst, Christian

    2011-01-01

    Abstract. 180 seizures containing 667 different samples of cannabis products from 5 police districts in Jutland were examined from 2008 to the present. The samples were divided into the groups: hashish, marihuana (leaves and buds) and whole plants (indoors and outdoors). Cannabis seized from indoor...... cultivation was examined in order to determine THC content and yield. The results are used by the Danish Police Attorney to estimate expected yields in cases with unripe cannabis plants. The results indicate that the THC content found in locally grown marihuana is slightly higher than in hashish. However...

  14. Calculation of Bremsstrahlung yield for thin target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demir, N.; Akkurt, I.; Tekin, H. O.; Cakirli, R. B.; Akkus, B.; Kupa, I.

    2010-01-01

    The Bremsstrahlung photon is created by de-accelerating electron beam in an electric field which is usually a thin material so-called radiator. The obtained Bremsstrahlung yield depends on some parameter such as incoming electron beam energy, the thickness and also Z number of the radiator. The main aim of this work is to obtain optimum radiator to be used at Bremsstrahlung photon beam facility at TAC. For this purposes the Bremsstrahlung photon yield has been obtained using FLUKA code for different types materials.

  15. Systematics of neutron-induced fission yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blachot, J.; Brissot, R.

    1983-10-01

    The main characteristics of the mass and charge distributions for thermal neutron induced fission of actinides are reviewed. We show that these distributions can be reasonably reproduced with only 24 data as input. We use a representation where the element yields together with the most probable mass Ap(Z) play the dominant role. The ability of this model to calculate mass yields for the fission of not yet measured actinides is also shown. The influence of the excitation energy of the fissile system on charge and mass distribution is also discussed

  16. Amplitude Models for Discrimination and Yield Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, William Scott [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This seminar presentation describes amplitude models and yield estimations that look at the data in order to inform legislation. The following points were brought forth in the summary: global models that will predict three-component amplitudes (R-T-Z) were produced; Q models match regional geology; corrected source spectra can be used for discrimination and yield estimation; three-component data increase coverage and reduce scatter in source spectral estimates; three-component efforts must include distance-dependent effects; a community effort on instrument calibration is needed.

  17. PREOVULATORY FOLLICLE DEVELOPMENT IN HIGH YIELDING COWS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovan Tomášek

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to examine the development of preovulatory follicles in pregnant and non-pregnant high yielding cows. The treatment by supergestran and oestrophan was used to synchronize the estrous cycle. Ovaries were monitored by transrectal ultrasonography. The linear increase of preovulatory follicles was observed in pregnant (P < 0,001 and non-pregnant (P < 0,001 cows during 8 days before ovulation. In conclusion, preovulatory follicles in pregnant and non-pregnant high yielding cows developed similarly.

  18. Neutron yield measurements on a TMX endplug

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slaughter, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Neutron yield measurements were made on the east endplug of TMX using a calibrated recoil proton counter. The detector consists of a liquid scintillator (NE 213) with a pulse shape discrimination property that allows for identifying photon and neutron interactions. An energy threshold is established to suppress the response to scattered neutrons with energies lower than 1 to 2 MeV. Results indicate there are typical neutron yields of 2 to 3 x 10 11 n/s during a 25-ms discharge with 200 A of 20-keV neutral beam injection into the endplug

  19. High yield fabrication of fluorescent nanodiamonds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boudou, Jean-Paul; Curmi, Patrick A [Structure and Activity of Normal and Pathological Biomolecules-INSERM/UEVE U829, Universite d' Evry-Val d' Essonne, Batiment Maupertuis, Rue du pere Andre Jarlan, F-91025 Evry (France); Jelezko, Fedor; Wrachtrup, Joerg; Balasubramanian, Gopalakrischnan; Reuter, Rolf [3.Physikalisches Institut, University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 57, D-70550 Stuttgart (Germany); Aubert, Pascal [Nanometric Media Laboratory, Universite d' Evry-Val d' Essonne, Batiment Maupertuis, Rue du pere Andre Jarlan, F-91025 Evry (France); Sennour, Mohamed; Thorel, Alain [Centre des Materiaux, Mines Paris, ParisTech, BP 87, F-91000 Evry (France); Gaffet, Eric [Nanomaterials Research Group-UMR 5060, CNRS, UTBM, Site de Sevenans, F-90010 Belfort (France)], E-mail: jpb.cnrs@free.fr, E-mail: pcurmi@univ-evry.fr, E-mail: f.jelezko@physik.uni-stuttgart.de

    2009-06-10

    A new fabrication method to produce homogeneously fluorescent nanodiamonds with high yields is described. The powder obtained by high energy ball milling of fluorescent high pressure, high temperature diamond microcrystals was converted in a pure concentrated aqueous colloidal dispersion of highly crystalline ultrasmall nanoparticles with a mean size less than or equal to 10 nm. The whole fabrication yield of colloidal quasi-spherical nanodiamonds was several orders of magnitude higher than those previously reported starting from microdiamonds. The results open up avenues for the industrial cost-effective production of fluorescent nanodiamonds with well-controlled properties.

  20. High yield fabrication of fluorescent nanodiamonds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudou, Jean-Paul; Curmi, Patrick A; Jelezko, Fedor; Wrachtrup, Joerg; Balasubramanian, Gopalakrischnan; Reuter, Rolf; Aubert, Pascal; Sennour, Mohamed; Thorel, Alain; Gaffet, Eric

    2009-01-01

    A new fabrication method to produce homogeneously fluorescent nanodiamonds with high yields is described. The powder obtained by high energy ball milling of fluorescent high pressure, high temperature diamond microcrystals was converted in a pure concentrated aqueous colloidal dispersion of highly crystalline ultrasmall nanoparticles with a mean size less than or equal to 10 nm. The whole fabrication yield of colloidal quasi-spherical nanodiamonds was several orders of magnitude higher than those previously reported starting from microdiamonds. The results open up avenues for the industrial cost-effective production of fluorescent nanodiamonds with well-controlled properties.

  1. Yield, yield components and dry matter digestibility of alfalfa experimental populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katić Slobodan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Alfalfa is the most important forage crop grown in the temperate regions. It is cultivated for production of vegetative aerial mass used fresh or as hay, and recently as haylage and silage. In many centres worldwide, efforts are made to breed and create new alfalfa cultivars with both higher yields and of higher nutritional value. The aim of this paper was to determine yield and digestibility of 12 experimental populations of alfalfa, and to compare their results to the yields of well-known domestic alfalfa commercial cultivars. The results show significant differences in yield of green forage and dry matter among alfalfa populations, as well as in yield components, height, proportion of leaves in yield and growth rate (tab. 1, 2 and 3. Differences between in vitro digestible dry matter (% and yields of in vitro digestible dry matter (t ha-1 were also significant (tab. 5 and 6. Yield and quality of experimental populations were at the same level or higher than of control cultivars. Synthetic SINUSA exceeded the control cutivars (NS Mediana ZMS V and Banat VS in yield and quality of dry matter. .

  2. Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Massey, Andrew J.

    2011-01-01

    The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs

  3. The Future Multiple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2015-01-01

    /value – The original contribution is in demonstrating how plural futures and the singular future co-exist in practice. Thus, an eclipse of the future by futures can only ever be partial. For “futures” to be conceptually potent, “the future” must be at least provisionally believable and occasionally useful. Otherwise......, if “the future” were so preposterous an idea, then “futures” would cease to be a critical alternative to it. Futures needs the future; they are relationally bound together in a multiplicity. This paper considers what such a logical reality implies for a field that distances itself from the future and self......). Multiplicity, as a post-ANT sensibility, helps one make sense of the empirical materials. This paper examines the possibility that rather than being alternatives to one another, plural futures and the singular future might co-exist in practice, and, thus, constitute a multiplicity. Design...

  4. Understanding the Changes in Global Crop Yields Through Changes in Climate and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Ehsan; Devineni, Naresh; Khanbilvardi, Reza M.; Kogan, Felix

    2018-03-01

    During the last few decades, the global agricultural production has risen and technology enhancement is still contributing to yield growth. However, population growth, water crisis, deforestation, and climate change threaten the global food security. An understanding of the variables that caused past changes in crop yields can help improve future crop prediction models. In this article, we present a comprehensive global analysis of the changes in the crop yields and how they relate to different large-scale and regional climate variables, climate change variables and technology in a unified framework. A new multilevel model for yield prediction at the country level is developed and demonstrated. The structural relationships between average yield and climate attributes as well as trends are estimated simultaneously. All countries are modeled in a single multilevel model with partial pooling to automatically group and reduce estimation uncertainties. El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), geopotential height anomalies (GPH), historical carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and country-based time series of GDP per capita as an approximation of technology measurement are used as predictors to estimate annual agricultural crop yields for each country from 1961 to 2013. Results indicate that these variables can explain the variability in historical crop yields for most of the countries and the model performs well under out-of-sample verifications. While some countries were not generally affected by climatic factors, PDSI and GPH acted both positively and negatively in different regions for crop yields in many countries.

  5. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  6. A New Economic Assessment Index for the Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community.This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional "yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)" or "yield impact of weather factor" to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore,the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China,and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

  7. Dimension yields from yellow-poplar lumber

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. C. Gilmore; J. D. Danielson

    1984-01-01

    The available supply of yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), its potential for new uses, and its continuing importance to the furniture industry have created a need to accumulate additional information about this species. As an aid to better utilization of this species, charts for determining cutting stock yields from yellow poplar lumber are presented for each...

  8. Comparative morphophysiological and yield characteristics of musa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results revealed that crop cycle did not significantly influenced height of the tallest sucker at harvest of the paint crop, black sigatoka disease responses and the fruit weight. All phonological and yield traits were significantly (P<0.05) influenced by the environment evaluation. Similarly, genotype, genome groups and their ...

  9. Yield improvement of Kenyan sesame varieties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayiecho, P.O.; Nyabundi, J.O.

    2001-01-01

    In an effort to improve the yield of Kenyan sesame cultivars the seeds of three cultivars, SPS SIK6, SIK 096 and SPS SIK 50/1 were subjected to 300Gy, 400Gy and 600Gy of gamma rays. A first batch of seeds were subjected to these treatments in March 1994 (Experiment I) while the second batch was treated in March 1995 (Experiment II). The M 1 , M 2 , M 3 and M 4 generations of experiment I and M 1 generation of Experiment II were raised at the University of Nairobi Dryland Research Field Station, Kibwezi from 1994 to 1996. The M 6 and M 7 generations of Experiment I and M 2 of Experiment II were raised at Siaya Farmer's Training Centre in 1997. The effects of radiation in M 1 generation were expressed in reduced and delayed seedling emergence, reduced plant height, sectorial deformed plants, delayed flowering and extremely low yield. There was increased variation in M 2 for most evaluated traits. Plants in M 2 and subsequent generations were scored for a number of yield related morphological traits and days to flowering. Selection was done in the early generations for increased capsule number and earliness. As a result of selection, a total of 88 lines from M 4 generation were used to derive M 5 generation. Further selection in M 6 generation lead to 35 lines being retained for preliminary yield trials in M 7 generations. (author)

  10. PARTICULARITIES OF BUDGETING OF INVESTMENTS YIELD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANCA JARMILA GUŢĂ

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents some particularities of the budget process of all the investments as a main aspect in taking the best decision according to the main use of all the firms’ resources. As a measure method of the investments yield the main one is that which describes the relationship between the profit and the investment which improves the deccisional process.

  11. Experimental assessment of bacterial storage yield

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karahan-Gül, Ö.; Artan, N.; Orhon, D.

    2002-01-01

    to the amount of oxygen associated with substrate storage. Model simulation was used to evaluate the procedure for different initial experimental conditions. The procedure was tested on acetate. The same storage yield value of 0.76 gCOD/gCOD was calculated for two experiments, starting with different F/M ratios...

  12. Achieving maximum sustainable yield in mixed fisheries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulrich, Clara; Vermard, Youen; Dolder, Paul J.; Brunel, Thomas; Jardim, Ernesto; Holmes, Steven J.; Kempf, Alexander; Mortensen, Lars O.; Poos, Jan Jaap; Rindorf, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Achieving single species maximum sustainable yield (MSY) in complex and dynamic fisheries targeting multiple species (mixed fisheries) is challenging because achieving the objective for one species may mean missing the objective for another. The North Sea mixed fisheries are a representative example

  13. Yield gaps in Dutch arable farming systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Vieira da Silva, Joao; Reidsma, Pytrik; Ittersum, van Martin K.

    2017-01-01

    Arable farming systems in the Netherlands are characterized by crop rotations in which potato, sugar beet, spring onion, winter wheat and spring barley are the most important crops. The objectives of this study were to decompose crop yield gaps within such rotations into efficiency, resource and

  14. Yielding and flow of sheared colloidal glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petekidis, G; Vlassopoulos, D; Pusey, P N

    2004-01-01

    We have studied some of the rheological properties of suspensions of hard-sphere colloids with particular reference to behaviour near the concentration of the glass transition. First we monitored the strain on the samples during and after a transient step stress. We find that, at all values of applied step stress, colloidal glasses show a rapid, apparently elastic, recovery of strain after the stress is removed. This recovery is found even in samples which have flowed significantly during stressing. We attribute this behaviour to 'cage elasticity', the recovery of the stress-induced distorted environment of any particle to a more isotropic state when the stress is removed. Second, we monitored the stress as the strain rate dot γ of flowing samples was slowly decreased. Suspensions which are glassy at rest show a stress which becomes independent of dot γ as dot γ →0. This limiting stress can be interpreted as the yield stress of the glass and agrees well both with the yield stress deduced from the step stress and recovery measurements and that predicted by a recent mode coupling theory of sheared suspensions. Thus, the behaviours under steady shearing and transient step stress both support the idea that colloidal glasses have a finite yield stress. We note however that the samples do exhibit a slow accumulation of strain due to creep at stresses below the yield stress

  15. Bulk yields of nucleosynthesis from massive stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, W.D.

    1978-01-01

    Preliminary estimates are made of the absolute yields of abundant nuclei synthesized in observed stars. The compositions of nine helium stars of mass 3 or =10M/sub sun/ is estimated. A variety of choices for the initial mass function (IMF) are used to calculate the yield per stellar generation. For standard choices of the (IMF) the absolute and relative yields of 12 C, 16 O, 20 Ne, 24 Mg, the Si to Ca group, and the iron group agree with solar system values, to the accuracy of the calculations. The relative yields are surprisingly insensitive to the slope of the IMF. In a second approach, using standard estimates (Ostriker, Richstone, and Thuan) for the current rate of stellar death, I find the present rate of nucleosynthesis in the solar neighborhood to be about 10%of the average rate over galactic history. This result is consistent with many standard models of galactic evolution (for example, the Schmidt model in which star formation goes as gas density squared). It appears that if the star formation rate is high enough to produce the stars we see around us, then the nucleosynthesis rate is large enough to produce the processed nuclei (except 4 He) seen in those stars. The typical nucleosynthesis source is massive (Mapprox. =30 M/sub sun/); the death rate of such stars is a small fraction (3-10%) of recent estimates of the total rate of supernovae

  16. High yielding rice mutants for West Bengal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Debnath, A.R.; Sen, S.

    1980-01-01

    Four high yielding mutants with specific genetic corrections of the simply inherited characters were developed from IR-8 through X-irradiation. Recurrent selections of the promising isolates were made under diverse agro-climatic conditions in Winter and Summer seasons of West Bengal. The isolates CNM 6 and CNM 25 belonging to early maturity group and CNM 20 and CNM 31, to mid-early maturity group were finally selected at X 5 generation on the basis of their resistance qualities, maturity period and grain yield. They were evaluated upto X 10 qeneration at multi-locations as Pre-release and Minikit Varieties at State level. They were also placed at the National Screening Nursery (NSN) for screening against multiple diseases and pests at the National level. CNM 6 is reported to be promising in IRTP nurseries. It is reported that CNM 25 (IET 5646) ranked 2nd on the basis of average grain yield, CNM 20 (IET 5937) and CNM 31 (IET 5936) were resistant to diseases and with yield comparable to Jaya. These four productive mutants of superior types are widely accepted. CNM 6 is recommended for cultivation in Bankura and Birbhum districts and CNM 25 and CNM 31 in the different agro-climatic zones of West Bengal. (author)

  17. High-yield pulping effluent treatment technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, W.X.; Hsieh, J.S.

    1993-03-01

    The objective of this report is to examine the high-yield (mechanical) pulp processes with respect to environmental issues affected by the discharge of their waste streams. Various statistics are given that support the view that high-yield pulping processes will have major growth in the US regions where pulp mills are located, and sites for projects in the development phase are indicated. Conventional and innovative effluent-treatment technologies applicable to these processes are reviewed. The different types of mechanical pulping or high-yield processes are explained, and the chemical additives are discussed. The important relationship between pulp yield and measure of BOD in the effluent is graphically presented. Effluent contaminants are identified, along with other important characteristics of the streams. Current and proposed environmental limitations specifically related to mechanical pulp production are reviewed. Conventional and innovative effluent-treatment technologies are discussed, along with their principle applications, uses, advantages, and disadvantages. Sludge management and disposal techniques become an intimate part of the treatment of waste streams. The conclusion is made that conventional technologies can successfully treat effluent streams under current waste-water discharge limitations, but these systems may not be adequate when stricter standards are imposed. At present, the most important issue in the treatment of pulp-mill waste is the management and disposal of the resultant sludge

  18. Understanding the rheology of yield stress materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paredes Rojas, J.F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis presents the PhD research on the flow behavior of yield stress materials, using rheological measurements and confocal laser scanning microscopy. Experiments are performed in dispersed systems, such as emulsions, gels and foams; for these, when the amount of the dispersed phase is high

  19. Learning Outcomes in Sustainability Education among Future Elementary School Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Rider W.; Archambault, Leanna M.; Hale, Annie E.; Dong, Hsiang-Kai

    2017-01-01

    Universities and colleges around the world are exploring ways of reorganizing curricula to educate future leaders in sustainability. Preservice teachers hold tremendous potential to introduce concepts of sustainability far earlier than post-secondary education. However, there is little research of such efforts to yield changes in future elementary…

  20. Neglecting rice milling yield and quality underestimates economic losses from high-temperature stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel B Lyman

    Full Text Available Future increases in global surface temperature threaten those worldwide who depend on rice production for their livelihoods and food security. Past analyses of high-temperature stress on rice production have focused on paddy yield and have failed to account for the detrimental impact of high temperatures on milling quality outcomes, which ultimately determine edible (marketable rice yield and market value. Using genotype specific rice yield and milling quality data on six common rice varieties from Arkansas, USA, combined with on-site, half-hourly and daily temperature observations, we show a nonlinear effect of high-temperature stress exposure on yield and milling quality. A 1 °C increase in average growing season temperature reduces paddy yield by 6.2%, total milled rice yield by 7.1% to 8.0%, head rice yield by 9.0% to 13.8%, and total milling revenue by 8.1% to 11.0%, across genotypes. Our results indicate that failure to account for changes in milling quality leads to understatement of the impacts of high temperatures on rice production outcomes. These dramatic losses result from reduced paddy yield and increased percentages of chalky and broken kernels, which together decrease the quantity and market value of milled rice. Recently published estimates show paddy yield reductions of up to 10% across the major rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures. The results of our study suggest that the often-cited 10% figure underestimates the economic implications of climate change for rice producers, thus potentially threatening future food security for global rice producers and consumers.

  1. Genotype X Environment Interaction for Yield of Pickling Cucumber in 24 U.S. Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dia Mahendra

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Reliable yield performance is important in cucumber because seed companies prefer to market cultivars adapted to multiple rather than single regions of the U.S. Also, growers benefit by using a cultivar that performs well in many environments. Future performance of cultivars is also important. The objectives of the study were to (i evaluate the yield of cucumber genotypes over successive years and in different locations, and (ii identify cucumber genotypes with high stability for yield. A diverse set of 22 pickling genotypes was evaluated over 3 years (1986, 1987 and 1988 and in 7 locations across the United States. Yield traits were evaluated using once-over harvest and counting the number of fruit that were marketable, culled or oversize. Total yield, marketable yield (total minus culled fruit, early yield (number of oversize fruit, percent culls and fruit per plant were calculated. Data were analyzed with SASGxE and RGxE programs using SAS and R programming languages, respectively. There were strong effects of environment(E as well as genotype(G xE interaction for all traits. Genotypes ‘Regal F1’, ‘Calypso F1’, ‘Carolina F1’, ‘Gy 3’, ‘Gy 14’ and ‘Fremont F1’ had high marketable yield and medium to high stability for all traits. There was an advantage of hybrids over inbreds for trait performance. Hybrids fell into a single cluster with large prediction intervals. Based on the stability statistics and divisive clusters, it appears possible to breed stable cucumber genotypes with high yield. The genotype with highest performance for marketable yield, greatest stability for yield, lowest 1-R2 ratio value (diverse and representative were ‘Marbel F1’ and Gy 14.

  2. Seed yield and some yield components of sesame as affected by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to study the effect of different irrigation, N and superabsorbent levels on yield and yield components of sesame, a field experiment was conducted in Khosf Region, Birjand, Iran in 2009 as a split-split plot design based on a randomized complete block design. The treatments included irrigation interval at three levels ...

  3. Effect of sulfur and iron fertilizers on yield, yield components and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-06-13

    Jun 13, 2011 ... per plant. Interaction between water stress and combination of iron and sulfur fertilizers had significant .... Results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) of water stress (W), sulfur (B) and iron (C), and their interaction with gain yield, yield components and ... the soil structure and it increased the usefulness of other.

  4. Influence of Inter and Intra-rows Spacing on Yield and Yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abyssinia

    yield and yield components of fresh market(Bishola) and processing (Cochoro) tomato cultivars. ... row spacing had a significant effect on plan canopy width, above ground dry biomass, ... Poor varietal performance and management practices that includeinter and intra-row spacing ..... of assimilate export from the leaves.

  5. An adapted yield criterion for the evolution of subsequent yield surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Küsters, N.; Brosius, A.

    2017-09-01

    In numerical analysis of sheet metal forming processes, the anisotropic material behaviour is often modelled with isotropic work hardening and an average Lankford coefficient. In contrast, experimental observations show an evolution of the Lankford coefficients, which can be associated with a yield surface change due to kinematic and distortional hardening. Commonly, extensive efforts are carried out to describe these phenomena. In this paper an isotropic material model based on the Yld2000-2d criterion is adapted with an evolving yield exponent in order to change the yield surface shape. The yield exponent is linked to the accumulative plastic strain. This change has the effect of a rotating yield surface normal. As the normal is directly related to the Lankford coefficient, the change can be used to model the evolution of the Lankford coefficient during yielding. The paper will focus on the numerical implementation of the adapted material model for the FE-code LS-Dyna, mpi-version R7.1.2-d. A recently introduced identification scheme [1] is used to obtain the parameters for the evolving yield surface and will be briefly described for the proposed model. The suitability for numerical analysis will be discussed for deep drawing processes in general. Efforts for material characterization and modelling will be compared to other common yield surface descriptions. Besides experimental efforts and achieved accuracy, the potential of flexibility in material models and the risk of ambiguity during identification are of major interest in this paper.

  6. Effects of heterosis for yield and yield components obtained by crossing divergent alfalfa populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katić Slobodan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available When breeding alfalfa for yield performance, it is necessary to use high-yielding parents obtained by different breeding methods. The assumption at the onset of this research was that crossing highest-yielding domestic cultivars with divergent populations from geographically distant breeding centers could result in the expression of heterotic effects in their hybrids contributing to increased alfalfa yield. The objective of this study was to determine yield and yield components and heterotic effects in hybrid progenies obtained by crossing the domestic cultivars NS Banat ZMS II and NS Mediana ZMS V with the cultivars Pella, Dolichi and Hyliki from Greece, UMSS 2001 from Bolivia and Jogeva 118 from Estonia in two series. The field trial planted in 2006, included 13 F1 hybrids and 6 of 7 initial parents in both series. Heterotic effects for yields of forage and hay were observed in 4 combinations (C NS Banat ZMS II x E Hyliki; C NS Banat ZMS II x E UMSS 2001; C NS Mediana ZMS V x E Hyliki; C NS Mediana ZMS V x E Dolichi. The populations that exhibited heterosis in a set of crossings are recommended for use as parent components for development of high-yielding synthetic alfalfa cultivars. .

  7. Correlation and path-cofficient analysis of seed yield and yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was undertaken in order to determine the association among yield components and their direct and indirect effects on the seed yield of confectionery sunflower. 36 confectionery sunflower populations originated from different regions of Northwest Iran were characterized using 11 agromorphological traits ...

  8. Effect of water stress on yield and yield components of sunflower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A field experiment during year 2009 was conducted in the research station of the University of Tehran, College of Abouraihan in Pakdasht region, Iran. The study was aimed to investigate the effect of water stress on seed yield, yield component and some quantitative traits of four sunflower hybrids namely Azargol, Alstar, ...

  9. Influences of nitrogen and potassium top dressing on yield and yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2010-05-03

    May 3, 2010 ... (K) top dressing on grain yield and yield components of rice (Oryza sativa cv. Tarrom) and to ... positive reciprocal effect on crops, and was an important approach in ..... dressing fertilization (Figures 2a, b and c), but nitrogen levels of upper fully .... (Brassica napus L.)–rice (Oryza sativa L.) rotation. Plant Soil ...

  10. Inheritance of grain yield and its correlation with yield components in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-03-19

    Mar 19, 2014 ... average yield of wheat in China is 4.75 t ha-1, which is low compared to other .... Analysis of variance for combining ability for grain yield plant-1. Source of variation ..... Hayman BI (1954). The theory and analysis of diallel crosses. .... Analysis and prospect of China wheat market in 2011. Food and Oil.

  11. THE INFLUENCE OF FERTILIZATION ON YIELD AND YIELD COMPONENT FORMATION OF SOYBEAN VARIETIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva CANDRÁKOVÁ

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In 2005 and 2006, the influence of fertilization was investigated on forming of yield components and yield of three soybean varieties in sugar beet growing area. Varieties Korada, Supra and OAC Vision were grown. Number of plants per m2, number of pods per plant, number of seeds in pod, thousand seeds weight, yield of seeds, yield of stems and harvest index were examined. Variants of fertilization: I. non-fertilized control, II. LAV 27 % (40 kg ha-1 net nutrient of N in growing stage of first pair of true leaves unfolded, III. Humix komplet (rate 8 l.ha-1 applied in growing stage of first pair of true leaves unfolded (4 l.ha-1 and in growing stage of first flower buds visible (4 l.ha-1, IV. Humix komplet in rate 8 l.ha-1 applied in growing stage of first pair of true leaves unfolded. The yields of seeds and stems were high significantly influenced by variety, fertilization and year. The significantly highest yield of seeds was achieved by Korada variety (4,04 t.ha-1. Varieties OAC Vision and Supra reached yields in interval 3,74-3,84 t.ha-1. Split rate of Humix komplet (III var significantly influenced yield of seeds and stems. The fertilization have increased weight of seeds in proportion to aboveground phyto-mass weight, what was expressed by harvest index.

  12. Effect of Salinity and Silicon on Seed Yield and Yield Components of Purslane Portulaca oleracea L.(

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Rahimi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In order to study the effects on salinity and silicon application on yield and yield components of purslane (Portulaca oleracea L., an experiment was conducted in a completely randomized desgin with three replications and two factors consisted of four different levels of salinity using NaCl (0, 7, 14, 21dS/m and two levels of silicon (application of one mMol sodium silicate and not application. Increasing salinity concentration significantly caused a negative effect on seed yield. But yield components such as number and weight of seed were more sensitive than number of capsul in main stem in final seed yield. Application of silicon increased seed yield in control but was not significant in salinity levels and leaves and stem biomass. Seed yield and total seed weight in branches was significantly decresed. Weight of 1000 seed in main stem and branches was not significantly different in salinity levels. As a result, purslane could be extremely tolerated to saline conditions, so it seems that it can be cultivated in saline soils and arid regions. Also applied silicon can be increase yield and plant tolerance to environmental stress. Keywords: 1000 seed, Branches, Capsul, Dry weight

  13. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  14. Quantifying potential yield and water-limited yield of summer maize in the North China Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Mingnuo; Liu, Chaoshun; Chen, Maosi

    2017-09-01

    The North China Plain is a major food producing region in China, and climate change could pose a threat to food production in the region. Based on China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, simulating the growth of summer maize in North China Plain from 1979 to 2015 with the regional implementation of crop growth model WOFOST. The results showed that the model can reflect the potential yield and water-limited yield of Summer Maize in North China Plain through the calibration and validation of WOFOST model. After the regional implementation of model, combined with the reanalysis data, the model can better reproduce the regional history of summer maize yield in the North China Plain. The yield gap in Southeastern Beijing, southern Tianjin, southern Hebei province, Northwestern Shandong province is significant, these means the water condition is the main factor to summer maize yield in these regions.

  15. The Reliability of Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints-C-Reactive Protein Might Be Overestimated in a Subgroup of Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients, When the Score Is Solely Based on Subjective Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen Hansen, Inger Marie; Asmussen Andreasen, Rikke; Van Bui Hansen, Mark Nam

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints (DAS28) is a scoring system to evaluate disease activity and treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A DAS28 score of greater than 3.2 is a well-described limit for treatment intensification; however, the reliability of DAS28 might be overe......BACKGROUND: Disease Activity Score in 28 Joints (DAS28) is a scoring system to evaluate disease activity and treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A DAS28 score of greater than 3.2 is a well-described limit for treatment intensification; however, the reliability of DAS28 might...... be overestimated. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of DAS28 in RA, especially focusing on a subgroup of patients with a DAS28 score of greater than 3.2. METHODS: Data from RA patients registered in the local part of Danish DANBIO Registry were collected in May 2015. Patients were....... Patients with central sensitization and psychological problems and those with false-positive diagnosis of RA are at high risk of overtreatment.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where...

  16. Yield Potential of Hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) Cultivars in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deleuran, Lise Christina; Flengmark, Poul Kristiansen

    2005-01-01

    In order to determine the yield potential of fibre hemp in Denmark, defined as seed yield, biomass, stem and fibre production, five cultivars were evaluated in field trials at two sites during 1998-2000. The total dry matter yield, stem yield, fibre yield, fibre percent, plant height, and seed...

  17. Grain yield and agronomic characteristics of Romanian bread wheat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-05-16

    May 16, 2008 ... Wheat is adapted to diverse environments, between the ... international collaborative studies many new varieties ... Stability of grain yield and quality characteristics over locations ... grain yield capacity and yield components of twelve .... Analysis of variance for grain yield and yield-related traits over two ...

  18. Disentangling agronomic and economic yield gaps: An integrated framework and application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijk, M. van; Morley, T.; Jongeneel, R.A.; Ittersum, M.K. van; Reidsma, P.; Ruben, R.

    2017-01-01

    Despite its frequent use in policy discussions on future agricultural production, both the concept of the yield gap and its determinants are understood differently by economists and agronomists. This study provides a micro-level framework that disentangles and integrates agronomic and economic

  19. Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Chenyao; Fraga, Helder; Ieperen, van W.; Andrade Santos, João

    2017-01-01

    Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water

  20. Effect of Biofertilizers on the Yield and Yield Components of Black Cumin (Nigella sativa L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Khorramdel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Application of biological fertilizers is one of the most important methods for plant nutrition in ecological agriculture. In order to investigate the effect of biofertilizers on yield and yield components of black cumin (Nigella sativa L., a field experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications during 2007 growing season at the Agricultural Research Station of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Treatments included: (A Azotobacter paspali, (B Azospirillum brasilense, (C the fungus of Glomus intraradaices, C+A, C+B, A+B, A+B+C, and control without no biofertilizers. In all treatments except control, the amounts of 15 mg of each biofertilizer were applied to 110 g of seeds. Results indicated that application of biofertilizers enhanced yield and yield components and decreased percentage of hollow capsules. Plant performance was better with application of Azospirillum plus mycorrhiza and a mixture of Azotobacter, Azospirillum and mycorrhiza in terms of yield determining criteria. The maximum and minimum amounts of seed yield were recorded in the B+C treatment with 41.4 gm-2, and control with 24.1 gm-2, respectively. There was no significant correlation between number of capsules per plant and seed yield, but the positive and significant correlation between number of branches per plant, number of seeds per capsule, 1000-seed weight and seed yield was observed. This study showed that application of suitable biofertilizers could increase yield and yield components of black cumin. Keywords: Biofertilizer, Ecological agriculture, Medicinal plants, Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria

  1. The Pricing and Efficiency of Australian Treasury Bond Futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Frino

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the efficiency of the Treasury Bond futures market in Australia. We provide a comprehensive explanation of the method used to price, and evaluate efficiency of the 3 and 10 Year Australian Treasury Bond Futures contracts, against underlying bond baskets. Results indicate that the futures contracts exhibit minimal variation from their theoretical value. The average mispricing equates to 1.96 basis points for 3 Year and 1.19 basis points for 10 Year government bond futures contracts. However, during some periods (including the financial crisis of 2008, the bond futures contracts exhibit greater mispricing. Consistent with prior literature, we find a decreasing pattern of mispricing towards expiry, with the futures contract yields and average forward yields of the underlying bonds converging towards expiry. Further analysis reveals that volatility and time to expiry exhibit a significant positive relationship with the absolute level of mispricing.

  2. Making the Future Palpable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Büscher, Monika; Kristensen, Margit; Mogensen, Preben Holst

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe experiences from a Future Laboratory. Future laboratories allow users to experiment with prototypes of future technologies in as realistic as possible conditions. We have devised this method because, to realize the potential of advanced ubiquitous computing technologies...... it is essential to anticipate and design for future practices, but for prospective users it is often difficult to imagine and articulate future practices and provide design specifications. They readily invent new ways of working in engagement with new technologies, through and, by facilitating as realistic...... as possible use of prototype future technologies in Future Laboratories designers and users can define and study both opportunities and constraints for design. We present 11 scenes from a Major Incidents Future Laboratory held in September 2005. In relation to each scene we point out key results. Many raise...

  3. Future accelerators: physics issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjorken, J.D.

    1977-11-01

    High energy physics of the future using future accelerators is discussed. The proposed machines and instruments, physics issues and opportunities including brief sketches of outstanding recent results, and the way the proposed machines address these issues are considered. 42 references

  4. Small Reservoir Impact on Simulated Watershed-Scale Nutrient Yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shane J. Prochnow

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT is used to assess the influence of small upland reservoirs (PL566 on watershed nutrient yield. SWAT simulates the impact of collectively increasing and decreasing PL566 magnitudes (size parameters on the watershed. Totally removing PL566 reservoirs results in a 100% increase in total phosphorus and an 82% increase in total nitrogen, while a total maximum daily load (TMDL calling for a 50% reduction in total phosphorus can be achieved with a 500% increase in the magnitude of PL566s in the watershed. PL566 reservoirs capture agriculture pollution in surface flow, providing long-term storage of these constituents when they settle to the reservoir beds. A potential strategy to reduce future downstream nutrient loading is to enhance or construct new PL566 reservoirs in the upper basin to better capture agricultural runoff.

  5. Improving the Yield and Nutritional Quality of Forage Crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola M. Capstaff

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite being some of the most important crops globally, there has been limited research on forages when compared with cereals, fruits, and vegetables. This review summarizes the literature highlighting the significance of forage crops, the current improvements and some of future directions for improving yield and nutritional quality. We make the point that the knowledge obtained from model plant and grain crops can be applied to forage crops. The timely development of genomics and bioinformatics together with genome editing techniques offer great scope to improve forage crops. Given the social, environmental and economic importance of forage across the globe and especially in poorer countries, this opportunity has enormous potential to improve food security and political stability.

  6. Money market futures

    OpenAIRE

    Anatoli Kuprianov

    1992-01-01

    Virtually all financial innovation in the U.S. money market during the past 20 years has centered on interest rate derivatives, including futures and swaps. Furthermore, money market futures--especially futures contracts on Eurodollar time deposits--have been at the vanguard of the recent explosion of trading activity in interest rate derivatives. While futures markets traditionally have been viewed as markets for the transfer of price risk, recent research shows that they may serve other imp...

  7. Greening the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Norma Velia

    2011-01-01

    Because educators vicariously touch the future through their students, the author believes that they sometimes have the uncanny ability to see the future. One common future forecast is the phenomenal growth of green jobs in the emerging green economy, leading to the creation of the "Reach of the Sun" Solar Energy Academy at La Mirada…

  8. Simulating the potential yield and yield gaps of sugar beet due to water and nitrogen limitations in Khorasan province using SUCROS model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Deihimfard

    2015-12-01

    has not been considered in the simulations is qualitative traits of sugar beet (such as sugar content, Alkaloids, molasses sugar, sodium and potassium in storage organ, etc. particularly under different levels of nitrogen applications. Although increasing nitrogen application would be resulted in higher yield and lower yield gaps, supplied nitrogen more than crop demand could be accumulated in storage organs and reduce white sugar yield. For instance, every 15 kg additional application of nitrogen reduced sugar content by 0.1 percent and reduced extraction coefficient of sugar. It is also worth noting that the current version of SUCROSBEET model is not capable to simulate qualitative traits of sugar beet and a few subroutines are needed to add to the model for future investigations. Conclusion The results indicated that although there is high yield potential for sugar beet in Khorasan province, water productivity would not be reasonable. In addition, yield gap in sugar beet cropping systems which reflects the actual yield gap in irrigated environments is essentially due to non-adoption of improved crop management practices and could be reduced if proper interventions are made.

  9. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  10. Oil palm natural diversity and the potential for yield improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcelos, Edson; Rios, Sara de Almeida; Cunha, Raimundo N. V.; Lopes, Ricardo; Motoike, Sérgio Y.; Babiychuk, Elena; Skirycz, Aleksandra; Kushnir, Sergei

    2015-01-01

    African oil palm has the highest productivity amongst cultivated oleaginous crops. Species can constitute a single crop capable to fulfill the growing global demand for vegetable oils, which is estimated to reach 240 million tons by 2050. Two types of vegetable oil are extracted from the palm fruit on commercial scale. The crude palm oil and kernel palm oil have different fatty acid profiles, which increases versatility of the crop in industrial applications. Plantations of the current varieties have economic life-span around 25–30 years and produce fruits around the year. Thus, predictable annual palm oil supply enables marketing plans and adjustments in line with the economic forecasts. Oil palm cultivation is one of the most profitable land uses in the humid tropics. Oil palm fruits are the richest plant source of pro-vitamin A and vitamin E. Hence, crop both alleviates poverty, and could provide a simple practical solution to eliminate global pro-vitamin A deficiency. Oil palm is a perennial, evergreen tree adapted to cultivation in biodiversity rich equatorial land areas. The growing demand for the palm oil threatens the future of the rain forests and has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Plant science faces three major challenges to make oil palm the key element of building the future sustainable world. The global average yield of 3.5 tons of oil per hectare (t) should be raised to the full yield potential estimated at 11–18t. The tree architecture must be changed to lower labor intensity and improve mechanization of the harvest. Oil composition should be tailored to the evolving needs of the food, oleochemical and fuel industries. The release of the oil palm reference genome sequence in 2013 was the key step toward this goal. The molecular bases of agronomically important traits can be and are beginning to be understood at the single base pair resolution, enabling gene-centered breeding and engineering of this remarkable crop. PMID:25870604

  11. Oil palm natural diversity and the potential for yield improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcelos, Edson; Rios, Sara de Almeida; Cunha, Raimundo N V; Lopes, Ricardo; Motoike, Sérgio Y; Babiychuk, Elena; Skirycz, Aleksandra; Kushnir, Sergei

    2015-01-01

    African oil palm has the highest productivity amongst cultivated oleaginous crops. Species can constitute a single crop capable to fulfill the growing global demand for vegetable oils, which is estimated to reach 240 million tons by 2050. Two types of vegetable oil are extracted from the palm fruit on commercial scale. The crude palm oil and kernel palm oil have different fatty acid profiles, which increases versatility of the crop in industrial applications. Plantations of the current varieties have economic life-span around 25-30 years and produce fruits around the year. Thus, predictable annual palm oil supply enables marketing plans and adjustments in line with the economic forecasts. Oil palm cultivation is one of the most profitable land uses in the humid tropics. Oil palm fruits are the richest plant source of pro-vitamin A and vitamin E. Hence, crop both alleviates poverty, and could provide a simple practical solution to eliminate global pro-vitamin A deficiency. Oil palm is a perennial, evergreen tree adapted to cultivation in biodiversity rich equatorial land areas. The growing demand for the palm oil threatens the future of the rain forests and has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Plant science faces three major challenges to make oil palm the key element of building the future sustainable world. The global average yield of 3.5 tons of oil per hectare (t) should be raised to the full yield potential estimated at 11-18t. The tree architecture must be changed to lower labor intensity and improve mechanization of the harvest. Oil composition should be tailored to the evolving needs of the food, oleochemical and fuel industries. The release of the oil palm reference genome sequence in 2013 was the key step toward this goal. The molecular bases of agronomically important traits can be and are beginning to be understood at the single base pair resolution, enabling gene-centered breeding and engineering of this remarkable crop.

  12. Oil palm natural diversity and the potential for yield improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson eBarcelos

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available African oil palm has the highest productivity amongst cultivated oleaginous crops. Species can constitute a single crop capable to fulfil the growing global demand for vegetable oils, which is estimated to reach 240 million tons by 2050. Two types of vegetable oil are extracted from the palm fruit on commercial scale. The crude palm oil and kernel palm oil have different fatty acid profiles, which increases versatility of the crop in industrial applications. Plantations of the current varieties have economic life-span around 25-30 years and produce fruits around the year. Thus, predictable annual palm oil supply enables marketing plans and adjustments in line with the economic forecasts. Oil palm cultivation is one of the most profitable land uses in the humid tropics. Oil palm fruits are the richest plant source of pro-vitamin A and vitamin E. Hence, crop both alleviates poverty, and could provide a simple practical solution to eliminate global pro-vitamin A deficiency. Oil palm is a perennial, evergreen tree adapted to cultivation in biodiversity rich equatorial land areas. The growing demand for the palm oil threatens the future of the rain forests and has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Plant science faces three major challenges to make oil palm the key element of building the future sustainable world. The global average yield of 3.5 tons of oil per hectare (t should be raised to the full yield potential estimated at 11-18t. The tree architecture must be changed to lower labor intensity and improve mechanization of the harvest. Oil composition should be tailored to the evolving needs of the food, oleochemical and fuel industries. The release of the oil palm reference genome sequence in 2013 was the key step towards this goal. The molecular bases of agronomically important traits can be and are beginning to be understood at the single base pair resolution, enabling gene-centered breeding and engineering of this remarkable crop.

  13. An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently

  14. Resource-conserving agriculture increases yields in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretty, J N; Noble, A D; Bossio, D; Dixon, J; Hine, R E; Penning De Vries, F W T; Morison, J I L

    2006-02-15

    Despite great recent progress, hunger and poverty remain widespread and agriculturally driven environmental damage is widely prevalent. The idea of agricultural sustainability centers on the need to develop technologies and practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, and that lead to improvements in food productivity. Here we show the extent to which 286 recent interventions in 57 poor countries covering 37 M ha (3% of the cultivated area in developing countries) have increased productivity on 12.6 M farms while improving the supply of critical environmental services. The average crop yield increase was 79% (geometric mean 64%). All crops showed water use efficiency gains, with the highest improvement in rainfed crops. Potential carbon sequestered amounted to an average of 0.35 t C ha(-1) y(-1). If a quarter of the total area under these farming systems adopted sustainability enhancing practices, we estimate global sequestration could be 0.1 Gt C y(-1). Of projects with pesticide data, 77% resulted in a decline in pesticide use by 71% while yields grew by 42%. Although it is uncertain whether these approaches can meet future food needs, there are grounds for cautious optimism, particularly as poor farm households benefit more from their adoption.

  15. NEST: a comprehensive model for scintillation yield in liquid xenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydagis, M; Barry, N; Mock, J; Stolp, D; Sweany, M; Tripathi, M; Uvarov, S; Walsh, N; Woods, M [University of California, Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Kazkaz, K, E-mail: mmszydagis@ucdavis.edu [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    A comprehensive model for explaining scintillation yield in liquid xenon is introduced. We unify various definitions of work function which abound in the literature and incorporate all available data on electron recoil scintillation yield. This results in a better understanding of electron recoil, and facilitates an improved description of nuclear recoil. An incident gamma energy range of O(1 keV) to O(1 MeV) and electric fields between 0 and O(10 kV/cm) are incorporated into this heuristic model. We show results from a Geant4 implementation, but because the model has a few free parameters, implementation in any simulation package should be simple. We use a quasi-empirical approach with an objective of improving detector calibrations and performance verification. The model will aid in the design and optimization of future detectors. This model is also easy to extend to other noble elements. In this paper we lay the foundation for an exhaustive simulation code which we call NEST (Noble Element Simulation Technique).

  16. NEST: a comprehensive model for scintillation yield in liquid xenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szydagis, M; Barry, N; Mock, J; Stolp, D; Sweany, M; Tripathi, M; Uvarov, S; Walsh, N; Woods, M; Kazkaz, K

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive model for explaining scintillation yield in liquid xenon is introduced. We unify various definitions of work function which abound in the literature and incorporate all available data on electron recoil scintillation yield. This results in a better understanding of electron recoil, and facilitates an improved description of nuclear recoil. An incident gamma energy range of O(1 keV) to O(1 MeV) and electric fields between 0 and O(10 kV/cm) are incorporated into this heuristic model. We show results from a Geant4 implementation, but because the model has a few free parameters, implementation in any simulation package should be simple. We use a quasi-empirical approach with an objective of improving detector calibrations and performance verification. The model will aid in the design and optimization of future detectors. This model is also easy to extend to other noble elements. In this paper we lay the foundation for an exhaustive simulation code which we call NEST (Noble Element Simulation Technique).

  17. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  18. Track models and radiation chemical yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, A.; Magee, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    The authors are concerned only with systems in which single track effects dominate and radiation chemical yields are sums of yields for individual tracks. The authors know that the energy deposits of heavy particle tracks are composed of spurs along the particle trajectory (about one-half of the energy) and a more diffuse pattern composed of the tracks of knock-on electrons, called the penumbra (about one-half of the energy). The simplest way to introduce the concept of a unified track model for heavy particles is to consider the special case of the track of a heavy particle with an LET below 0.2-0.3eV/A, which in practice limits us to protons, deuterons, or particles with energy above 100 MeV per nucleon. At these LET values, to a good approximation, spurs formed by the main particle track can be considered to remain isolated throughout the radiation chemical reactions

  19. Grain yield stability of early maize genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chitra Bahadur Kunwar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate grain yield stability of early maize genotypes. Five early maize genotypes namely Pool-17, Arun1EV, Arun-4, Arun-2 and Farmer’s variety were evaluated using Randomized Complete Block Design along with three replications at four different locations namely Rampur, Rajahar, Pakhribas and Kabre districts of Nepal during summer seasons of three consecutive years from 2010 to 2012 under farmer’s fields. Genotype and genotype × environment (GGE biplot was used to identify superior genotype for grain yield and stability pattern. The genotypes Arun-1 EV and Arun-4 were better adapted for Kabre and Pakhribas where as pool-17 for Rajahar environments. The overall findings showed that Arun-1EV was more stable followed by Arun-2 therefore these two varieties can be recommended to farmers for cultivation in both environments.

  20. Effects of nitrogen application method and weed control on corn yield and yield components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepahvand, Pariya; Sajedi, Nurali; Mousavi, Seyed Karim; Ghiasvand, Mohsen

    2014-04-01

    The effects of nitrogen fertilizer application and different methods for weed control on yield and yield components of corn was evaluated in Khorramabad in 2011. The experiment was conducted as a split plot based on randomized complete block design in 3 replications. Nitrogen application was as main plot in 4 levels (no nitrogen, broadcasting nitrogen, banding nitrogen and sprayed nitrogen) and methods of weed control were in 4 levels (non-control weeds, application Equip herbicide, once hand control of weeds and application Equip herbicide+once time weeding) was as subplots. Result illustrated that effects of nitrogen fertilizer application were significant on grain and forage yield, 100 seeds weight, harvest index, grain number per row and cob weight per plant. Grain yield increased by 91.4 and 3.9% in application banding and broadcasting for nitrogen fertilizer, respectively, compared to the no fertilizer treatment. The results show improved efficiency of nitrogen utilization by banding application. Grain yield, harvest index, seed rows per cob, seeds per row and cob weight were increased by weed control. In the application of Equip herbicide+ hand weeding treatment corn grain yield was increased 126% in comparison to weedy control. It represents of the intense affects of weed competition with corn. The highest corn grain yield (6758 kg h(-1)) was related to the application banding of nitrogen fertilizer and Equip herbicide+once hand weeding.

  1. Locational variation in green fodder yield, dry matter yield, and forage quality of sorghum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussain, A.; Khan, S.; Mohammad, D.

    2007-01-01

    The present study was designed to find out the variations in for- age yield and quality of sorghum as affected by different environments. The three agroecological zones viz., Agricultural Research Institute (ARI), Sariab, Quetta, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute (AARI), Faisalabad and National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), Islamabad were selected on the basis of different physiography, geology, temperature, and climate and water availability. Crude protein contents, varied from 6.98 to 8.02 percent, crude fibre contents from 30.84 to 31.68 percent, green fodder yield from 38.91 to 50.64 t/ha and dry matter yield from 8.92 to 10.17 t/ha at the three diverse locations. Maximum crude protein and crude fibre contents were obtained at NARC, Islamabad and AARI, Faisalabad. Maximum green fodder and dry matter yields were also observed at NARC, Islamabad and AARI, Faisalabad. It was also noted that the same genotypes showed differential response when planted under the diverse environments for green fodder yield, dry matter yield, crude protein and crude fibre contents. Therefore, it was concluded that these differences in forage yield and quality traits under diverse environments were due to differences in soil types, soil fertility, temperature, rain- fall and other climatic conditions. (author)

  2. Cattle manure fertilization increases fig yield

    OpenAIRE

    Leonel,Sarita; Tecchio,Marco Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Fertilization using organic compounds is complementary to chemical fertilization, being essential to integrated fruit production. Reports on fig tree (Ficus carica L.) organic fertilization and mineral nutrition are worldwide scarce, especially in Brazil. This experiment aimed to evaluate the effects of cattle manure fertilization on the yield and productivity of the fig tree 'Roxo de Valinhos' in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil, during the 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2005/06 crop cycles....

  3. Overview of tritium fast-fission yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanner, J.E.

    1981-03-01

    Tritium production rates are very important to the development of fast reactors because tritium may be produced at a greater rate in fast reactors than in light water reactors. This report focuses on tritium production and does not evaluate the transport and eventual release of the tritium in a fast reactor system. However, if an order-of-magnitude increase in fast fission yields for tritium is confirmed, fission will become the dominant production source of tritium in fast reactors

  4. Science yield estimation for AFTA coronagraphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traub, Wesley A.; Belikov, Ruslan; Guyon, Olivier; Kasdin, N. Jeremy; Krist, John; Macintosh, Bruce; Mennesson, Bertrand; Savransky, Dmitry; Shao, Michael; Serabyn, Eugene; Trauger, John

    2014-08-01

    We describe the algorithms and results of an estimation of the science yield for five candidate coronagraph designs for the WFIRST-AFTA space mission. The targets considered are of three types, known radial-velocity planets, expected but as yet undiscovered exoplanets, and debris disks, all around nearby stars. The results of the original estimation are given, as well as those from subsequently updated designs that take advantage of experience from the initial estimates.

  5. High green fodder yielding new grass varieties

    OpenAIRE

    C. Babu, K. Iyanar and A. Kalamani

    2014-01-01

    Two high biomass yielding forage grass varieties one each in Cumbu Napier hybrid and Guinea grass have been evolved at the Department of Forage Crops, Centre for Plant Breeding and Genetics, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore and identified for release at national (All India) level as Cumbu Napier hybrid grass CO (BN) 5 and Guinea grass CO (GG) 3 during 2012 and 2013 respectively. Cumbu Napier hybrid grass CO (BN) 5 secured first rank at all national level with reference to green ...

  6. Deep enteroscopy - indications, diagnostic yield and complications

    OpenAIRE

    Moeschler, Oliver; Mueller, Michael Karl

    2015-01-01

    Since its introduction in 2001 capsule endoscopy opened up the small bowel for diagnostic approaches followed by double balloon enteroscopy which enabled the endoscopic community to perform therapeutic interventions in the whole small intestine. In this review the scientific developments related to indications, diagnostic yield and complications of the last years between the competing devices double ballon enteroscopy, single balloon enteroscopy and spiral enteroscopy are illustrated.

  7. Colonoscopy: Evaluating indications and diagnostic yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Shamali, Mohammed A.; Hasan, F.; Siddiqe, I.; Al-Nakeeb, B.; Kalaoui, M.; Khajah, A.

    2001-01-01

    Colonoscopic procedure is an accepted modality for the evaluation ofcolonic disease. Open-access versus restricted-access colonoscopy has beenargued over in the recent literature. The aim of this retrospective analysisis to identify the yield of the major indications for the procedure, and thepattern of colon pathology in our community. We retrospectively analyzed ourexperience in 3000 colonoscopies over a five-year period. The patientscomprised 1145 females (38%) and 1855 males (62%) and their ages ranged from9 months to 95 years (mean 39.2). There were 2283 patients (76%) who wereaged less than 55 years. Complete examination to the cecum was possible in2850 cases (95%). Pathological findings were identified in 640 patients(21%). The diagnostic yield of patients referred for lower abdominal pain andsurveillance was low, at 7% and 17%, respectively. The yield was high forthose with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (47%), non-bloody diarrhea (35%),iron deficiency anemia (30%), mass lesions identified by radiology (53%) andpolyps identified by radiology (70%). Inflammatory bowel disease wasdiagnosed in 220 patients, carcinoma in 64 patients and colonic polyps in 139patients. Colonic diseases are not uncommon in our part of the world.Colonoscopy is a rewarding procedure in those patients referred with lowergastrointestinal bleeding, mass lesions, polyps and diarrhea. The procedureis less rewarding in patients with lower abdominal pain and in thoseundergoing surveillance colonoscopy. Patient selection on the basis of thepresenting complaint may help to utilize the limited resource available togastroenterologists. About 63% of the procedures were done for indicationsfound to have a low yield. Inflammatory bowel disease is seen with increasingfrequency in our population. (author)

  8. Methods for high yield production of terpenes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutchan, Toni; Higashi, Yasuhiro; Feng, Xiaohong

    2017-01-03

    Provided are enhanced high yield production systems for producing terpenes in plants via the expression of fusion proteins comprising various combinations of geranyl diphosphate synthase large and small subunits and limonene synthases. Also provided are engineered oilseed plants that accumulate monoterpene and sesquiterpene hydrocarbons in their seeds, as well as methods for producing such plants, providing a system for rapidly engineering oilseed crop production platforms for terpene-based biofuels.

  9. correlation studies and path coefficient analysis for seed yield

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    African Crop Science Journal, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 51 - 59 ... Yield being a quantitative trait has complex inheritance, which is ... Analysis for seed yield and yield components in Ethiopian coriander. 53 ..... The financial assistance of Canadian.

  10. Weed biomass and economic yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum) as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2012-01-24

    Jan 24, 2012 ... INTRODUCTION ... to control weeds in conjunction with cultural practices. Jarwar et al. (1999) .... Wheat grain yield is an interplay of yield components especially ... The biological yield expresses the overall growth of crop.

  11. Path Analysis of Grain Yield and Yield Components and Some Agronomic Traits in Bread Wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Janmohammadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Development of new bread wheat cultivars needs efficient tools to monitor trait association in a breeding program. This investigation was aimed to characterize grain yield components and some agronomic traits related to bread wheat grain yield. The efficiency of a breeding program depends mainly on the direction of the correlation between different traits and the relative importance of each component involved in contributing to grain yield. Correlation and path analysis were carried out in 56 bread wheat genotypes grown under field conditions of Maragheh, Iran. Observations were recorded on 18 wheat traits and correlation coefficient analysis revealed grain yield was positively correlated with stem diameter, spike length, floret number, spikelet number, grain diameter, grain length and 1000 seed weight traits. According to the variance inflation factor (VIF and tolerance as multicollinearity statistics, there are inconsistent relationships among the variables and all traits could be considered as first-order variables (Model I with grain yield as the response variable due to low multicollinearity of all measured traits. In the path coefficient analysis, grain yield represented the dependent variable and the spikelet number and 1000 seed weight traits were the independent ones. Our results indicated that the number of spikelets per spikes and leaf width and 1000 seed weight traits followed by the grain length, grain diameter and grain number per spike were the traits related to higher grain yield. The above mentioned traits along with their indirect causal factors should be considered simultaneously as an effective selection criteria evolving high yielding genotype because of their direct positive contribution to grain yield.

  12. Whey cheese: membrane technology to increase yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Francisco; González, Pablo; Muro, Claudia

    2016-02-01

    Sweet cheese whey has been used to obtain whey cheese without the addition of milk. Pre-treated whey was concentrated by nanofiltration (NF) at different concentration ratios (2, 2.5 and 2.8) or by reverse osmosis (RO) (2-3 times). After the concentration, whey was acidified with lactic acid until a final pH of 4.6-4.8, and heated to temperatures between 85 and 90 °C. The coagulated fraction (supernatant) was collected and freely drained over 4 h. The cheese-whey yield and protein, fat, lactose and ash recoveries in the final product were calculated. The membrane pre-concentration step caused an increase in the whey-cheese yield. The final composition of products was compared with traditional cheese-whey manufacture products (without membrane concentration). Final cheese yields found were to be between 5 and 19.6%, which are higher than those achieved using the traditional 'Requesón' process.

  13. Future possibilities in migraine genetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rudkjøbing, Laura Aviaja; Esserlind, Ann-Louise; Olesen, Jes

    2012-01-01

    Migraine with and without aura (MA and MO, respectively) have a strong genetic basis. Different approaches using linkage-, candidate gene- and genome-wide association studies have been explored, yielding limited results. This may indicate that the genetic component in migraine is due to rare...... variants; capturing these will require more detailed sequencing in order to be discovered. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) techniques such as whole exome and whole genome sequencing have been successful in finding genes in especially monogenic disorders. As the molecular genetics research progresses......, the technology will follow, rendering these approaches more applicable in the search for causative migraine genes in MO and MA. To date, no studies using NGS in migraine genetics have been published. In order to gain insight into the future possibilities of migraine genetics, we have looked at NGS studies...

  14. Diatoms: a fossil fuel of the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitan, Orly; Dinamarca, Jorge; Hochman, Gal; Falkowski, Paul G

    2014-03-01

    Long-term global climate change, caused by burning petroleum and other fossil fuels, has motivated an urgent need to develop renewable, carbon-neutral, economically viable alternatives to displace petroleum using existing infrastructure. Algal feedstocks are promising candidate replacements as a 'drop-in' fuel. Here, we focus on a specific algal taxon, diatoms, to become the fossil fuel of the future. We summarize past attempts to obtain suitable diatom strains, propose future directions for their genetic manipulation, and offer biotechnological pathways to improve yield. We calculate that the yields obtained by using diatoms as a production platform are theoretically sufficient to satisfy the total oil consumption of the US, using between 3 and 5% of its land area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Preliminary Evaluation of Yield and Yield Components of Some Khorasanian Sesame Ecotypes (Sesamum indicum L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Nezami

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In most region of Khorasan, sesame ecotypes have been planted for many years, but there is little information about seed yield and yield components of them. Therefore a field experimental was conducted to investigation of yield parameters of 14 sesame ecotypes (MSC1, MSC2, MSC3, MSC4, MSC5, MSC6, MSC7, MSC8, MSC9, MSC10, MSC11, MSC12, MSC13 and MSC14 in randomized complete block design with three replications at experimental station, Collage of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad during 2009. Results showed that there were significant difference (P

  16. Future planning - utopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boernke, F.

    1978-01-01

    Our life develops as the anticipation of future. Everything we wish, hope, plan and carry out and think is or should be related to future and will have its effects in future. The certainty may spread that it is a necessary obligation to learn to find out our actual being more clearly to be able to develop a thinking and acting that is directed to future that has also a total of responsability as its essence. We will later atone for the failed outlooks into future or for only moderate or uncompleted starts of planning. For this reason we should consider that future does not come for its own, not without our demands, not without our acting. Only if our reflection and aspiration, thinking and acting is done with moderate and circumspect sense in the right way it will be a good fundamental for the future. (orig.) [de

  17. Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Brian; Mutel, Christopher L; Bauer, Christian; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vuuren, Detlef P

    2018-04-17

    The future environmental impacts of battery electric vehicles (EVs) are very important given their expected dominance in future transport systems. Previous studies have shown these impacts to be highly uncertain, though a detailed treatment of this uncertainty is still lacking. We help to fill this gap by using Monte Carlo and global sensitivity analysis to quantify parametric uncertainty and also consider two additional factors that have not yet been addressed in the field. First, we include changes to driving patterns due to the introduction of autonomous and connected vehicles. Second, we deeply integrate scenario results from the IMAGE integrated assessment model into our life cycle database to include the impacts of changes to the electricity sector on the environmental burdens of producing and recharging future EVs. Future EVs are expected to have 45-78% lower climate change impacts than current EVs. Electricity used for charging is the largest source of variability in results, though vehicle size, lifetime, driving patterns, and battery size also strongly contribute to variability. We also show that it is imperative to consider changes to the electricity sector when calculating upstream impacts of EVs, as without this, results could be overestimated by up to 75%.

  18. Impacts of aerosol pollutant mitigation on lowland rice yields in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Li, Tao; Yue, Xu; Yang, Xiaoguang

    2017-10-01

    Aerosol pollution in China is significantly altering radiative transfer processes and is thereby potentially affecting rice photosynthesis and yields. However, the response of rice photosynthesis to aerosol-induced radiative perturbations is still not well understood. Here, we employ a process-based modelling approach to simulate changes in incoming radiation (RAD) and the diffuse radiation fraction (DF) with aerosol mitigation in China and their associated impacts on rice yields. Aerosol reduction has the positive effect of increasing RAD and the negative effect of decreasing DF on rice photosynthesis and yields. In rice production areas where the average RAD during the growing season is lower than 250 W m-2, aerosol reduction is beneficial for higher rice yields, whereas in areas with RAD>250 W m-2, aerosol mitigation causes yield declines due to the associated reduction in the DF, which decreases the light use efficiency. As a net effect, rice yields were estimated to significantly increase by 0.8%-2.6% with aerosol concentrations reductions from 20 to 100%, which is lower than the estimates obtained in earlier studies that only considered the effects of RAD. This finding suggests that both RAD and DF are important processes influencing rice yields and should be incorporated into future assessments of agricultural responses to variations in aerosol-induced radiation under climate change.

  19. Seismic Methods of Identifying Explosions and Estimating Their Yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, W. R.; Ford, S. R.; Pasyanos, M.; Pyle, M. L.; Myers, S. C.; Mellors, R. J.; Pitarka, A.; Rodgers, A. J.; Hauk, T. F.

    2014-12-01

    Seismology plays a key national security role in detecting, locating, identifying and determining the yield of explosions from a variety of causes, including accidents, terrorist attacks and nuclear testing treaty violations (e.g. Koper et al., 2003, 1999; Walter et al. 1995). A collection of mainly empirical forensic techniques has been successfully developed over many years to obtain source information on explosions from their seismic signatures (e.g. Bowers and Selby, 2009). However a lesson from the three DPRK declared nuclear explosions since 2006, is that our historic collection of data may not be representative of future nuclear test signatures (e.g. Selby et al., 2012). To have confidence in identifying future explosions amongst the background of other seismic signals, and accurately estimate their yield, we need to put our empirical methods on a firmer physical footing. Goals of current research are to improve our physical understanding of the mechanisms of explosion generation of S- and surface-waves, and to advance our ability to numerically model and predict them. As part of that process we are re-examining regional seismic data from a variety of nuclear test sites including the DPRK and the former Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS)). Newer relative location and amplitude techniques can be employed to better quantify differences between explosions and used to understand those differences in term of depth, media and other properties. We are also making use of the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) at NNSS. The SPE chemical explosions are explicitly designed to improve our understanding of emplacement and source material effects on the generation of shear and surface waves (e.g. Snelson et al., 2013). Finally we are also exploring the value of combining seismic information with other technologies including acoustic and InSAR techniques to better understand the source characteristics. Our goal is to improve our explosion models

  20. Effect of saline irrigation water on yield and yield components of rice ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    vaio

    2013-05-29

    May 29, 2013 ... levels at different growth stages of rice on yield and its components. Treatments included ... Therefore, irrigation with saline water at the early growth stages has more negative effect on ...... diversification. Land Degrad. Dev.

  1. The effects of seed coating treatment on yield and yield components ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREGORY

    2010-09-13

    Sep 13, 2010 ... 2University of Adnan Menderes, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Mechanization, ... Key words: Fuzzy cotton seed, seed coating, yield components. .... gin turnout (%) characteristics are statistically important.

  2. Genetic analysis of yield and yield components in Oryza sativa x ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... inheritance of yield and yield components and to estimate the heritabilities of important quantitative traits in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Six generations viz., P1, P2, F1, F2, BCP1 and BCP2 of a cross between IET6279 and IR70445-146-3-3 were used for the study. Generation mean analysis suggested that additive effects had a ...

  3. Effects of commercial organic fertilizers on the yield and yield structure of potato cultivars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Vladimir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The research work has dealt with investigations of two type commercial organic fertilizers (DCM ECO-MIX 4 NPK 7:7:10 i GUANITO NPK 6:15:3 effects on the yield and yield structure of three potato cultivars (Cleopatra, Carrera and Sylvana. The control variant was used in plots without the use of organic fertilizers. The field experiment was performed in 2012. in a populated area Dobrica (N 45° 13’, E 20° 51’, 78 m.s.l. at the experimental farm plot Belča on which is certified organic production, on anthropogenic soil subtype chernozem on carbonate terrace. The results of research showed that the lowest tuber yield was determined in the control treatment (20,87 t ha-1, while the highest yield was achieved with a commercial organic fertilizer DCM ECO-MIX 4 (23,96 t ha-1. Number of tubers per plant corresponded to the characteristics of the studied cultivars. The largest number of tubers per plant was correlated with yield. Specifically, individual variants of the two greatest yields had the highest average number of tubers per plant. Cultivar Cleopatra of variant with GUANITO achieved 17,51 tubers per plant, while cultivar Sylvana of variant with DCM ECO-MIX 4 achieved 17,38 tubers per plant.

  4. Effect of Application of Pseudomonas fluorescent Strains on Yield and Yield Components of Rapeseed Cultivars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Najafi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria has been identified as an alternative to chemical fertilizer to enhance plant growth and yield directly and indirectly. Use of rhizosphere free living bacteria is one of the methods for crop production and leads to improvement of resources absorption. In order to study of yield, yield components and radiation use efficiency, under application of PGPR condition, an experiment was carried out in 2008 growing season at Agriculture and natural resources research station of Mashhad. The cultivars selected from three rapeseed species belong to Brassica napus, Brassica rapa and Brassica juncea (landrace, BP.18، Goldrush، Parkland، Hyola330، Hyola401. Experimental factorial design was randomized in complete block with three replications. Treatments included six varieties of Rapeseed and inoculations were four levels as non–inoculation, inoculation with P. fluorescens169, P. putida108 and use then together. Results showed that strains of fluorescent pseudomonas bacteria had greatest effects on yield and yield components cultivars. A significant difference in the number of pods per plant and 1000 seed weight observed. The cultivars were different in all treats except 1000 seed weight. Overall results indicated that application of growth stimulating bacteria in combination with different cultivars, had a positive effect growth, yield characteristics of plant varieties of rapeseed plants.

  5. Synthetic Brassica napus L.: Development and Studies on Morphological Characters, Yield Attributes, and Yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Malek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Brassica napus was synthesized by hybridization between its diploid progenitor species B. rapa and B. oleracea followed by chromosome doubling. Cross with B. rapa as a female parent was only successful. Among three colchicine treatments (0.10, 0.15, and 0.20%, 0.15% gave the highest success (86% of chromosome doubling in the hybrids (AC; 2=19. Synthetic B. napus (AACC, 2=38 was identified with bigger petals, fertile pollens and seed setting. Synthetic B. napus had increased growth over parents and exhibited wider ranges with higher coefficients of variations than parents for morphological and yield contributing characters, and yield per plant. Siliqua length as well as beak length in synthetic B. napus was longer than those of the parents. Number of seeds per siliqua, 1000-seed weight and seed yield per plant in synthetic B. napus were higher than those of the parents. Although flowering time in synthetic B. napus was earlier than both parents, however the days to maturity was little higher over early maturing B. rapa parent. The synthesized B. napus has great potential to produce higher seed yield. Further screening and evaluation is needed for selection of desirable genotypes having improved yield contributing characters and higher seed yield.

  6. Daily variability of suspended particulate concentrations and yields and their effect on river particulates chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Meybeck

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Daily total suspended solids concentrations (TSS, mg L-1, yields (Y, kg day-1 km-2 and runoff (q, L s-1 km-2 in world rivers are described by the median (C50, the upper percentile (C99, the discharge-weighted average concentrations (C*, and by their corresponding yields (Y50, Y99, Y* and runoff (q*, q50, q99. These intra-station descriptors range over two to six orders of magnitude at a given station. Inter-station variability is considered through three sets of dimensionless metrics: (i q*/q50, C*/C50 and Y*/Y50, defining the general temporal variability indicators, and q99/q50, C99/C50 and Y99/Y50, defining the extreme variability indicators; (ii river flow duration (W2 and flux duration (M2 in 2% of time; and (iii the truncated rating curve exponent (b50sup of the C vs q relationship for the upper flows. The TSS and Y variability, measured on US, French and world rivers, are first explained by hydrological variability through the b50sup metric, the variability amplifier, then by basin size, erodibility, relief and lake occurrence. Yield variability is the product of runoff variability × TSS variability. All metrics are considerably modified after river damming. The control of river particulate matter (RPM composition by TSS or yields depends on the targeted component. For major elements (Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Si, Ca, Mg, Na, K, the average RPM chemistry is not dependent on C* and Y* in most world hydroregions, except in the tropical hydrobelt where it is controlled by basin relief. By contrast, the particulate organic carbon content (POC, as a percentage of RPM is inversely correlated to TSS concentrations for (i intra-station measurements in any hydroregion, and (ii inter-station average POC and TSS figures in world rivers. TSS controls heavy metal content (ppm in highly contaminated basins (e.g. Cd in the Seine vs the Rhone, and total metal concentration (ng/L in all cases. Relations between RPM composition and TSS should be taken into account

  7. Technological yields of sources for radiation processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagorski, Z.P.

    1993-01-01

    The present report is prepared for planners of radiation processing of any material. Calculations are focused on accelerators of electrons, divided into two groups: versatile linacs of energy up to 13 MeV, and accelerators of lower energy, below 2 MeV, of better energy yield but of limited applications. The calculations are connected with the confrontation of the author's technological expectations during the preparation of the linac project in the late '60s, with the results of 25 years of exploitation of the machine. One has to realize that from the 200 kW input power from the mains, only 5 kW of bent and scanned beam is recovered on the conveyor. That power is only partially used for radiation induced phenomena, because of the demanded homogeneity of the dose, of the mode of packing of the object and its shape, of edges of the scanned area and in the spaces between boxes, and of loses during the idle time due to the tuning of the machine and dosimetric operations. The use of lower energy accelerators may be more economical than that of linacs in case of objects of specific type. At the first stage already, that is of the conversion of electrical power into that of low energy electron beam, the yield is 2-3 times better than in the case of linacs. Attention has been paid to the technological aspects of electron beam conversion into the more penetrating Bremsstrahlung similar to gamma radiation. The advantages of technologies, which make possible a control of the shape of the processed object are stressed. Special attention is focused to the relation between the yield of processing and the ratio between the maximum to the minimum dose in the object under the irradiation. (author). 14 refs, 14 figs

  8. The journey from safe yield to sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alley, William M; Leake, Stanley A

    2004-01-01

    Safe-yield concepts historically focused attention on the economic and legal aspects of ground water development. Sustainability concerns have brought environmental aspects more to the forefront and have resulted in a more integrated outlook. Water resources sustainability is not a purely scientific concept, but rather a perspective that can frame scientific analysis. The evolving concept of sustainability presents a challenge to hydrologists to translate complex, and sometimes vague, socioeconomic and political questions into technical questions that can be quantified systematically. Hydrologists can contribute to sustainable water resources management by presenting the longer-term implications of ground water development as an integral part of their analyses.

  9. Sputtering yield calculation for binary target

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jimenez-Rodriguez, J.J.; Rodriguez-Vidal, M.; Valles-Abarca, J.A.

    1979-01-01

    The generalization for binary targets, of the ideas proposed by Sigmund for monoatomic targets, leads to a set of coupled intergrodifferential equations for the sputtering functions. After moment decomposition, the final formulae are obtained by the standard method based on the Laplace Transform, where the inverse transform is made with the aid of asymptotic expansions in the limit of very high projectile energy as compared to the surface binding energy. The possible loss of stoichiometry for binary targets is analyzed. Comparison of computed values of sputtering yield for normal incidence, with experimental results shows good agreement. (author)

  10. Neutron yield of medical electron accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCall, R.C.

    1988-01-01

    Shielding calculations for medical electron accelerators above about 10 MeV require some knowledge of the neutron emission from the machine. This knowledge might come from the manufacturer's specifications or from published measurements of the neutron leakage of that particular model and energy of accelerator. In principle, the yield can be calculated if details of the accelerator design are known. These details are often not available because the manufacturer considers them proprietary. A broader knowledge of neutron emission would be useful and it is the purpose of this paper to present such information

  11. Increasing alcohol yield in sugar fermentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colin, P

    1962-02-20

    The yield of alcohol from yeast fermentations of sugar solutions is increased 1.5 to 5% by the addition of 0.1 to 0.5 parts by volume of a monohydric saturated aliphatic alcohol of at least 6 C atoms in a straight chain such as hexanol or heptanol, or branched chain, such as 2-ethylbutanol or 2-ethylhexanol, or a mixture consisting mostly of C/sub 7/, C/sub 8/, C/sub 9/, or C/sub 10/ alcohols.

  12. Governance of the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galløe, Lotte Rannveig

    a different future for both parents and children. Thus, the approach to PMTO as a technology of the future indicates its expected prevalence in the future and its attempt to reach in to the future becoming of the child. The technology’s involvement of the relatives and its orientation towards shaping......In my presentation I will explore the concept, ‘technology of the future’, in public governance. Public governance within social services aims at changing the existing conditions for the marginalized citizens including children with special needs. I pose the question: what happens if public...... governance seek to chance the possible future conditions and targets the marginalized child’s relatives? Parent Management Training (PMTO) is studied as a technology of the future that expands and transforms governance. PMTO targets parents with aggressive and asocial children and aims to “create the parent...

  13. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2018-01-01

    LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

  14. Quantitative Genetic Analysis for Yield and Yield Components in Boro Rice (Oryza sativa L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supriyo CHAKRABORTY

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Twenty-nine genotypes of boro rice (Oryza sativa L. were grown in a randomized block design with three replications in plots of 4m x 1m with a crop geometry of 20 cm x 20 cm between November-April, in Regional Agricultural Research Station, Nagaon, India. Quantitative data were collected on five randomly selected plants of each genotype per replication for yield/plant, and six other yield components, namely plant height, panicles/plant, panicle length, effective grains/panicle, 100 grain weight and harvest index. Mean values of the characters for each genotype were used for analysis of variance and covariance to obtain information on genotypic and phenotypic correlation along with coheritability between two characters. Path analyses were carried out to estimate the direct and indirect effects of boro rice�s yield components. The objective of the study was to identify the characters that mostly influence the yield for increasing boro rice productivity through breeding program. Correlation analysis revealed significant positive genotypic correlation of yield/plant with plant height (0.21, panicles/plant (0.53, panicle length (0.53, effective grains/panicle (0.57 and harvest index (0.86. Path analysis based on genotypic correlation coefficients elucidated high positive direct effect of harvest index (0.8631, panicle length (0.2560 and 100 grain weight (0.1632 on yield/plant with a residual effect of 0.33. Plant height and panicles/plant recorded high positive indirect effect on yield/plant via harvest index whereas effective grains/panicle on yield/plant via harvest index and panicle length. Results of the present study suggested that five component characters, namely harvest index, effective grains/plant, panicle length, panicles/plant and plant height influenced the yield of boro rice. A genotype with higher magnitude of these component characters could be either selected from the existing genotypes or evolved by breeding program for genetic

  15. Progress Toward Future Runway Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohr, Gary W.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Atkins, Stephen; Eisenhawer, Stephen W.; Bott, Terrance F.; Long, Dou; Hasan, Shahab

    2011-01-01

    The runway is universally acknowledged as a constraining factor to capacity in the National Airspace System (NAS). It follows that investigation of the effective use of runways, both in terms of selection and assignment, is paramount to the efficiency of future NAS operations. The need to address runway management is not a new idea; however, as the complexities of factors affecting runway selection and usage increase, the need for effective research in this area correspondingly increases. Under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s Airspace Systems Program, runway management is a key research area. To address a future NAS which promises to be a complex landscape of factors and competing interests among users and operators, effective runway management strategies and capabilities are required. This effort has evolved from an assessment of current practices, an understanding of research activities addressing surface and airspace operations, traffic flow management enhancements, among others. This work has yielded significant progress. Systems analysis work indicates that the value of System Oriented Runway Management tools is significantly increased in the metroplex environment over that of the single airport case. Algorithms have been developed to provide runway configuration recommendations for a single airport with multiple runways. A benefits analysis has been conducted that indicates the SORM benefits include supporting traffic growth, cost reduction as a result of system efficiency, NAS optimization from metroplex operations, fairness in aircraft operations, and rational decision making.

  16. Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

    2017-12-01

    Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

  17. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Yield in Headwaters of a High-latitude Region in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Xu, Y. J.; Wang, J., , Dr; Weihua, X.; Huang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have strongest effects in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses to global warming in these regions, our knowledge of climate change on surface erosion and sediment yield in high-latitude headwaters is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict future runoff and sediment yield from the headwaters of a high-latitude river basin in China's far northeast. The SWAT model was first calibrated with historical discharge records and the model parameterization achieved satisfactory validation. The calibrated model was then applied to two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the period from 2020 to 2050 to estimate future runoff. Sediment yields for this period were predicted using a discharge-sediment load rating curve developed from field measurements in the past nine years. Our preliminary results show an increasing trend of sediment yield under both climate change scenarios, and that the increase is more pronounced in the summer and autumn months. Changes in precipitation and temperature seem to exert variable impacts on runoff and sediment yield at interannual and seasonal scales in these headwaters. These findings imply that the current river basin management in the region needs to be reviewed and improved in order to be effective under a changing climate.

  18. On the absolute calibration of a DT fusion neutron yield diagnostic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruiz C.L.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF experiments at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's National Ignition Facility (NIF have underscored the need for accurate total yield measurements of DT neutrons because yield measurements provide a measure of the predicted performance of the experiments. Future gas-puff DT experiments at Sandia National Laboratory's Z facility will also require similar measurements. For ICF DT experiments, the standard technique for measuring the neutron (14.1 MeV yield, counts the activity (counts/minute induced in irradiated copper samples. This activity occurs by the 63Cu(n,2n62Cu reaction where 62Cu decays by positrons (β+ with a half-life of 9.67 minutes. The calibrations discussed here employ the associated-particle method (APM, where the α (4He particles from the T(d,n4He reaction are measured to infer neutron fluxes on a copper sample. The flux induces 62Cu activity, measured in a coincidence counting system. The method leads to a relationship between a DT neutron yield and copper activity known as the F-factor. The goal in future experiments is to apply this calibration to measure the yield at NIF with a combined uncertainty approaching 5%.

  19. Effects of Plant Density on Sweet and Baby Corn (Hybrid KSC 403 Yield and Yield Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Bavi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Sweet corn is the one of the most important types of corn. There is a high amount of sugar in the endosperm of sweet corn than dent corn. Baby corn is the ear of corn that is being harvested in the silking stage before the end of pollination. This crop has an interesting using methods as salad, conserve production and vegetative consumption. Both two sweet and baby corn is obtained from one plant in different growth stages and could be harvested from one corn hybrid. Best yield and quality of baby corn is obtained from sweet corn hybrids, because of high amounts of sugar in the grains and ears. Sweet corn and baby corn could be harvested at early dough stage (with about 30 % of humidity and early silking stage before the pollination is completed, respectively. Plant density is the most important factor in growing corn, especially in sweet and baby corn. Khuzestan province is one of the main regions of corn production in Iran. In Khuzestan, forage and silage corn have the most production among the summer crops. Corn is planted in two planting date in Khuzestan: early spring and early summer. Spring corn planting produces little grain yield due to Simultaneity of silking stage with hot early summer days. Because of little production and little research about sweet and baby corn, this study was performed and designed. Materials and Methods In order to investigate the effects of plant density and harvesting method on sweet corn and baby corn yield, an experiment was performed during 2012-13, in research farm of Ramin Agriculture and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, located in southwest of Iran. In this experiment, four plant densities (7, 9, 11 and 13 plants.m-2 and two harvesting methods (baby corn and sweet corn were investigated in an RCB statistical design with four replications. The KSC 403 hybrid was used and investigated in the experiment, as a sweet corn hybrid. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.1 through

  20. Influence of Previous Crop on Durum Wheat Yield and Yield Stability in a Long-term Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Maria Stellacci

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Long-term experiments are leading indicators of sustainability and serve as an early warning system to detect problems that may compromise future productivity. So the stability of yield is an important parameter to be considered when judging the value of a cropping system relative to others. In a long-term rotation experiment set up in 1972 the influence of different crop sequences on the yields and on yield stability of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf. was studied. The complete field experiment is a split-split plot in a randomized complete block design with two replications; the whole experiment considers three crop sequences: 1 three-year crop rotation: sugar-beet, wheat + catch crop, wheat; 2 one-year crop rotation: wheat + catch crop; 3 wheat continuous crop; the split treatments are two different crop residue managements; the split-split plot treatments are 18 different fertilization formulas. Each phase of every crop rotation occurred every year. In this paper only one crop residue management and only one fertilization treatment have been analized. Wheat crops in different rotations are coded as follows: F1: wheat after sugar-beet in three-year crop rotation; F2: wheat after wheat in three-year crop rotation; Fc+i: wheat in wheat + catch crop rotation; Fc: continuous wheat. The following two variables were analysed: grain yield and hectolitre weight. Repeated measures analyses of variance and stability analyses have been perfomed for the two variables. The stability analysis was conducted using: three variance methods, namely the coefficient of variability of Francis and Kannenberg, the ecovalence index of Wricke and the stability variance index of Shukla; the regression method of Eberhart and Russell; a method, proposed by Piepho, that computes the probability of one system outperforming another system. It has turned out that each of the stability methods used has enriched of information the simple variance analysis. The Piepho

  1. Effect of different tillage intensity on yields and yield-forming factors in winter wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Houšť

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of a study on application of minimum tillage technologies when growing winter wheat. Experiments were performed in the sugar-beet-growing region with loamy chernozem within the period of 2005–2009. Aanalysed and evaluated were effects of different methods of soil processing on yield-forming factors in stands of winter wheat grown after three different preceding crops (i.e. alfalfa, maize for silage and pea. Evaluated were the following four variants of tillage: (1 conventional ploughing to the depth of 0.22 m (Variant 1; (2 ploughing to the depth of 0.15 m (Variant 2; (3 direct sowing into the untilled soil (Variant 3, and (4 shallow tillage to the depth of 0.10 m (Variant 4.The effect of different tillage intensity on winter wheat yields was statistically non-significant after all forecrops. After alfalfa, the highest and the lowest average yields were recorded in Variant 2 (i.e. with ploughing to the depth of 0.15 m and Variant 3 (direct sowing into the untilled soil, respectively. After maize grown for silage, higher yields were obtained in Variant 2 and Variant 1 (conventional ploughing while in Variants 4 and 3 the obtained yields were lower. When growing winter wheat after pea as a preceding crop, the highest and the lowest average yields were recorded after direct sowing (Variant 3 and in Variant 1 (i.e. ploughing to the depth of 0.22 m, respectively. Results of studies on effect of different tillage technologies on yields of winter wheat crops indicate that under the given pedological and climatic conditions it is possible to apply methods of reduced tillage intensity. However, the choice of the corresponding technology must be performed with regard to the type of preceding crop.

  2. Semi-empirical formulas for sputtering yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamura, Yasumichi

    1994-01-01

    When charged particles, electrons, light and so on are irradiated on solid surfaces, the materials are lost from the surfaces, and this phenomenon is called sputtering. In order to understand sputtering phenomenon, the bond energy of atoms on surfaces, the energy given to the vicinity of surfaces and the process of converting the given energy to the energy for releasing atoms must be known. The theories of sputtering and the semi-empirical formulas for evaluating the dependence of sputtering yield on incident energy are explained. The mechanisms of sputtering are that due to collision cascade in the case of heavy ion incidence and that due to surface atom recoil in the case of light ion incidence. The formulas for the sputtering yield of low energy heavy ion sputtering, high energy light ion sputtering and the general case between these extreme cases, and the Matsunami formula are shown. At the stage of the publication of Atomic Data and Nuclear Data Tables in 1984, the data up to 1983 were collected, and about 30 papers published thereafter were added. The experimental data for low Z materials, for example Be, B and C and light ion sputtering data were reported. The combination of ions and target atoms in the collected sputtering data is shown. The new semi-empirical formula by slightly adjusting the Matsunami formula was decided. (K.I.)

  3. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  4. The US Stock Market Leads the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Bond Yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

    2011-01-01

    Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis. PMID:21857954

  5. The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Guo

    Full Text Available Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method, we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y. In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i and (ii. First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

  6. The US stock market leads the federal funds rate and treasury bond yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Kun; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Cheng, Si-Wei; Sornette, Didier

    2011-01-01

    Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time-varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P 500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started in mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen as key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P 500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.

  7. On the design and implementation of a wafer yield editor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pineda de Gyvez, J.; Jess, J.A.G.

    1989-01-01

    An interactive environment is presented for the analysis of yield information required on modern integrated circuit manufacturing lines. The system estimates wafer yields and wafer-yield variations, quantifies regional yield variations within wafers, identifies clusters in wafers and/or in lots, and

  8. Studies on seed yield potential of some selected kenaf (Hibiscus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-06-11

    Jun 11, 2014 ... Kenaf seed yield depends on morpho-physiological traits between varieties, .... separated using Duncan's Multiple Range Test (DMRT) at 5% ... Mean squares derived from combined analysis of variance for seed yield and yield components in 20 .... environment interaction and yield stability in winter wheat.

  9. Bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation explain a large fraction of European crop yields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zscheischler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Crops are vital for human society. Crop yields vary with climate and it is important to understand how climate and crop yields are linked to ensure future food security. Temperature and precipitation are among the key driving factors of crop yield variability. Previous studies have investigated mostly linear relationships between temperature and precipitation and crop yield variability. Other research has highlighted the adverse impacts of climate extremes, such as drought and heat waves, on crop yields. Impacts are, however, often non-linearly related to multivariate climate conditions. Here we derive bivariate return periods of climate conditions as indicators for climate variability along different temperature–precipitation gradients. We show that in Europe, linear models based on bivariate return periods of specific climate conditions explain on average significantly more crop yield variability (42 % than models relying directly on temperature and precipitation as predictors (36 %. Our results demonstrate that most often crop yields increase along a gradient from hot and dry to cold and wet conditions, with lower yields associated with hot and dry periods. The majority of crops are most sensitive to climate conditions in summer and to maximum temperatures. The use of bivariate return periods allows the integration of non-linear impacts into climate–crop yield analysis. This offers new avenues to study the link between climate and crop yield variability and suggests that they are possibly more strongly related than what is inferred from conventional linear models.

  10. Statistical Evaluations of Variations in Dairy Cows’ Milk Yields as a Precursor of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamauchi, Hiroyuki; Hayakawa, Masashi; Asano, Tomokazu; Ohtani, Nobuyo; Ohta, Mitsuaki

    2017-01-01

    Simple Summary There are many reports of abnormal changes occurring in various natural systems prior to earthquakes. Unusual animal behavior is one of these abnormalities; however, there are few objective indicators and to date, reliability has remained uncertain. We found that milk yields of dairy cows decreased prior to an earthquake in our previous case study. In this study, we examined the reliability of decreases in milk yields as a precursor for earthquakes using long-term observation data. In the results, milk yields decreased approximately three weeks before earthquakes. We have come to the conclusion that dairy cow milk yields have applicability as an objectively observable unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes, and dairy cows respond to some physical or chemical precursors of earthquakes. Abstract Previous studies have provided quantitative data regarding unusual animal behavior prior to earthquakes; however, few studies include long-term, observational data. Our previous study revealed that the milk yields of dairy cows decreased prior to an extremely large earthquake. To clarify whether the milk yields decrease prior to earthquakes, we examined the relationship between earthquakes of various magnitudes and daily milk yields. The observation period was one year. In the results, cross-correlation analyses revealed a significant negative correlation between earthquake occurrence and milk yields approximately three weeks beforehand. Approximately a week and a half beforehand, a positive correlation was revealed, and the correlation gradually receded to zero as the day of the earthquake approached. Future studies that use data from a longer observation period are needed because this study only considered ten earthquakes and therefore does not have strong statistical power. Additionally, we compared the milk yields with the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) propagation data indicating ionospheric perturbations. The results showed

  11. Transport biofuel yields from food and lignocellulosic C{sub 4} crops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reijnders, L. [IBED University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 166, 1018 WV Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2010-01-15

    In the near future, the lignocellulosic C{sub 4} crops Miscanthus and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) are unlikely to outcompete sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) in net energetic yearly yield of transport biofuel ha{sup -1}. This holds both for the thermochemical conversion into liquid hydrocarbons and the enzymatic conversion into ethanol. Currently, Miscanthus and switchgrass would also not seem able to outcompete corn (Zea mays) in net energetic yearly yield of liquid transport biofuel ha{sup -1}, but further development of these lignocellulosic crops may gradually lead to a different outcome. (author)

  12. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pirttioja, N; Carter, T.; Fronzek, S

    2015-01-01

    his study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop s...... additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development....

  13. Study on Yield and Yield Components of Wheat Genotypes under Different Moisture Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Mogtader

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to study grain yield and yield components of 16 advanced wheat lines under rainfed and supplementary irrigation conditions, this research was conducted in randomized block design with 3 replications at Maragheh Research Station during 2008-09 seasons. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences for date to heading, plant height, 1000 kernel weight, tiller number, spike length, seed number per spike, spikelet number per spike, peduncle length, harvest index, leaf, sheath length and grain yield. Results also showed that the lines No. 4 (91-142 a 61/3/F35.70/MO73//1D13.1/MLT and 16 (Azar2 with 1895 and 1878 Kg/ha, lines No. 4 and 7 (YUMAI13/5/NAI60/3/14.53/ODIN//CI13441 with 2132 and 2285 Kg/ha had highest grain yield under rainfed and supplementary irrigated conditions respectively. Based on results these 16 lines and cultivars were grouped in 4 and 3 distinct classes using Ward’s Method of cluster analysis under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Path analysis indicated that vigor at shooting stage, seed number per spike and HI were positive important traits to select lines for high yielding potential in this study. HI and TKW had also positive effects on grain under supplementary irrigation.

  14. Ethiopian Wheat Yield and Yield Gap Estimation: A Spatial Small Area Integrated Data Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M.; Warner, J.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the collection of routine annual agricultural surveys and significant advances in GIS and remote sensing products, little econometric research has been undertaken in predicting developing nation's agricultural yields. In this paper, we explore the determinants of wheat output per hectare in Ethiopia during the 2011-2013 Meher crop seasons aggregated to the woreda administrative area. Using a panel data approach, combining national agricultural field surveys with relevant GIS and remote sensing products, the model explains nearly 40% of the total variation in wheat output per hectare across the country. The model also identifies specific contributors to wheat yields that include farm management techniques (eg. area planted, improved seed, fertilizer, irrigation), weather (eg. rainfall), water availability (vegetation and moisture deficit indexes) and policy intervention. Our findings suggest that woredas produce between 9.8 and 86.5% of their potential wheat output per hectare given their altitude, weather conditions, terrain, and plant health. At the median, Amhara, Oromiya, SNNP, and Tigray produce 48.6, 51.5, 49.7, and 61.3% of their local attainable yields, respectively. This research has a broad range of applications, especially from a public policy perspective: identifying causes of yield fluctuations, remotely evaluating larger agricultural intervention packages, and analyzing relative yield potential. Overall, the combination of field surveys with spatial data can be used to identify management priorities for improving production at a variety of administrative levels.

  15. Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Søren; Jaiswal, Deepak; Bentsen, Niclas Scott

    2016-01-01

    was 12.1 Mg DM ha−1 yr−1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha−1 yr−1 for Miscanthus. Coefficent of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland and the year-to-year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield...... Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay-rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared....... The semi-mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990-2010. The potential average, rain-fed mean yield...

  16. Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bing; Liu, Leilei; Tian, Liying; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

    2014-02-01

    Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Considering a healthy future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van Jannette

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs between current and future consequences are characteristic for the domain of health behavior. Therefore, both eating and exercising behavior could be determined by time orientation, which refers to an individual’s general orientation toward the present or the future. The main aim of

  18. Mobile energy sharing futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Worgan, Paul; Knibbe, Jarrod; Plasencia, Diego Martinez

    2016-01-01

    We foresee a future where energy in our mobile devices can be shared and redistributed to suit our current task needs. Many of us are beginning to carry multiple mobile devices and we seek to re-evaluate the traditional view of a mobile device as only accepting energy. In our vision, we can...... sharing futures....

  19. The Future as Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Lane

    Because good future studies and good fiction have a great deal in common, futurists need to recognize and apply the skills of word artists from all genres, particularly novelists and short-story writers. One form of science fiction that futurists could use is the scenario, which is an exploration of an alternative future. A good scenario should be…

  20. Framework for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuller, Tom

    2008-01-01

    The main goal of the Inquiry into the Future for Lifelong Learning is to provide a "strategic framework" for the future. In this article, the author considers the key components that will make up the framework. These are: (1) a statement of vision and values; (2) a stock-take of the current position; (3) an "investment…

  1. (Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Earl C.

    Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

  2. Summaries and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egelstaff, P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

  3. Future goal setting, task motivation and learning of minority and non-minority students in Dutch schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andriessen, I.; Phalet, K.; Lens, W.

    2006-01-01

    Background. Cross-cultural research on minority school achievement yields mixed findings on the motivational impact of future goal setting for students from disadvantaged minority groups. Relevant and recent motivational research, integrating Future Time Perspective Theory with Self-Determination

  4. Technological yields of sources for radiation processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagorski, Z.P.

    1990-01-01

    The present report is prepared for planners of radiation processing of any material. Sources with cobalt-60 are treated marginally, because most probably, there will be no installation of technically meaningful activity in Poland before the year 2000. Calculations are focused on accelerators of electrons, divided into two groups: versatile linacs of energy up to 13 MeV and accelerators of lower energy, below 2 MeV, of better energetical yield but of limited applications. The calculations are connected with the confrontation of the author's technological expectations during the preparation of the linac project in the late '60s, with the results of twenty years of exploitation of the machine. One has to realize that from the 150 kV input power from the mains, only 5 kV of bent and scanned beam is recovered on the conveyor. That power is only partially used for radiation induced phenomena, sometimes only a few percent, because of the demanded homogeneity of the dose, of the mode of packing of the object and its shape, of losses at the edges of the scanned area and in the spaces between boxes, and of losses during the dead time due to the tuning of the machine and dosimetric operations. The use of lower energy accelerators may be more economical in case of objects of optimum type. At the first stage, that is of the conversion of electrical power into that of the low energy electron beam, the yield is 2-3 times better than in the case of linacs. Attention has been paid to the technological aspects of electron beam conversion into the more penetrating bremsstrahlung similar to gamma radiation. The advantages of these technologies, which make it possible to control the shape of the processed object are stressed. Ten parameters necessary for a proper calculation of technological yields of radiation processing are listed. Additional conditions which must be taken into account in the comparison of the cost of radiation processing with the cost of other technologies are also

  5. Path coefficient and correlation of yield and yield associated traits in candidate bread wheat (triticum aestivum l)lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muhammad, T.; Haider, S.; Qureshi, M. J.; Shah, G. S.; Zamir, R.

    2005-01-01

    Yield and yield contributing traits were studied in candidate bread wheat lines to find out the genetic contribution of the different characters towards grain yield at NIFA, Peshawar during 2001-02. All the characteristics studied differed significantly from each other. Days to heading showed negative and significant correlation with harvest index and grain yield but was negative and non-significant with the biological yield. Days to maturity were negatively correlated at both genotypic and phenotypic levels with biological yield; harvest index and grain yield and level of correlations were significant with harvest index and grain yield. Plant height showed negative genotypic and phenotypic correlation with harvest index and grain yield. Biological yield had positive and significant genotypic and phenotypic correlations with harvest index and grain yield. Harvest index had positive and highly significant genotypic and phenotypic correlation with grain yield. Genotypic and phenotypic correlation coefficients revealed that important characters influencing grain yield are harvest index and biological yield. Path analysis showed the importance in order of harvest index, biological yield, plant height, days to maturity and days to heading with grain yield. (author)

  6. Coberturas vacinais superestimadas? Novas evidências a partir do inquérito de Pau da Lima Overestimated vaccination coverage rates? New evidence from the Pau de Lima survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Maria Vieira da Silva

    1997-06-01

    records of the health services and vaccination campaigns may be overestimates. The authors discuss the implications of the low coverage rates found in the entire age group and especially among children under 1 year old.

  7. Responsiveness of cold tolerant chickpea characteristics in fall and spring planting: II. yield and yield components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ahmad nezami

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Previous research in Mashhad collection chickpeas (MCC has shown that there are some cold tolerant genotypes for fall planting in the highlands. To obtain more detailed information about the reaction of these genotypes to fall and spring planting, the yield and yield component responses of 33 chickpea genotypes (32 cold tolerant genotypes and one susceptible genotypes to four planting dates (28 Sep., 16 Oct., 2 Nov., and 7 Mar. were evaluated in 2000-2001 growing season. The experiment was conducted at the experimental field of college of agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as a split plot design with two replications. The planting dates were imposed as main plot and chickpea genotypes as subplot. Effects of planting date and genotype on percent of plant survival (PPS after winter, number. of pod per plant, 100 seed weight, yield and Harvest Index (HI were significant (p

  8. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  9. Estimation of rice yield affected by drought and relation between rice yield and TVDI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongo, C.; Tamura, E.; Sigit, G.

    2016-12-01

    Impact of climate change is not only seen on food production but also on food security and sustainable development of society. Adaptation to climate change is a pressing issue throughout the world to reduce the risks along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. As a key adaptation to the climate change, agricultural insurance is expected to play an important role in stabilizing agricultural production through compensating the losses caused by the climate change. As the adaptation, the Government of Indonesia has launched agricultural insurance program for damage of rice by drought, flood and pest and disease. The Government started a pilot project in 2013 and this year the pilot project has been extended to 22 provinces. Having the above as background, we conducted research on development of new damage assessment method for rice using remote sensing data which could be used for evaluation of damage ratio caused by drought in West Java, Indonesia. For assessment of the damage ratio, estimation of rice yield is a key. As the result of our study, rice yield affected by drought in dry season could be estimated at level of 1 % significance using SPOT 7 data taken in 2015, and the validation result was 0.8t/ha. Then, the decrease ratio in rice yield about each individual paddy field was calculated using data of the estimated result and the average yield of the past 10 years. In addition, TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) which was calculated from Landsat8 data in heading season indicated the dryness in low yield area. The result suggests that rice yield was affected by irrigation water shortage around heading season as a result of the decreased precipitation by El Nino. Through our study, it becomes clear that the utilization of remote sensing data can be promising for assessment of the damage ratio of rice production precisely, quickly and quantitatively, and also it can be incorporated into the insurance procedures.

  10. Genetic control of late blight, yield and some yield related traits in tomato (lycopersicon esculentum mill.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, M.Y.; Asghar, M.; Khan, A.R.; Iqbal, Q.

    2011-01-01

    Genetic control of late blight (LB) and some economic traits was assessed to identify genotypes suitable for the hybrids were derived from crossing of 2 male sterile lines viz., development of late blight resistant hybrids in tomato. 10 F/sub 1/ hybrid were derived from crossing of 2 male sterile lines viz., TMS1 and TMS2 with 5 elite lines viz., Nagina, Riogrande, Roma, 88572 and Picdenato according to line x tester technique. Disease resistance was measured using detached leaf and whole plant assay techniques. Data were also recorded for days to maturity, number of fruit per plant, single fruit weight and yield per plant. The analysis of variance showed significant differences among crosses, lines, testers and line x tester interaction for almost all parameters. Estimate of genetic components indicated preponderance of additive type of gene action for detached leaf assay, whole plant assay, number of fruit per plant and yield per plant whereas non-additive type of gene action for days to maturity and single fruit weight. Among parents, TMS2, Nagina, Roma and Picdenato showed significant favorable general combing ability (GCA) effects for disease rating traits while TMS1 and Riogrande indicated desirable GCA effects for yield and some yield related traits. Among hybrids, TMS2 x Roma and TMS1 x Riogrande had significant specific combing ability (SCA) effects for detached and whole plant assays. However, hybrid TMS2 x Roma appeared as good combination of LB resistance as it had both parents with desirable GCA effects. All hybrids showed average type of SCA effects for yield and yield components. Genetic control of LB revealed that a multiple crossing program involving genotypes with high GCA effects would be rewarding to identify LB resistant genotypes in early generations. (author)

  11. ZNJPrice/Earnings Ratio Model through Dividend Yield and Required Yield Above Expected Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil Mihalina

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Price/earnings ratio is the most popular and most widespread evaluation model used to assess relative capital asset value on financial markets. In functional terms, company earnings in the very long term can be described with high significance. Empirically, it is visible from long-term statistics that the demanded (required yield on capital markets has certain regularity. Thus, investors first require a yield above the stable inflation rate and then a dividend yield and a capital increase caused by the growth of earnings that influence the price, with the assumption that the P/E ratio is stable. By combining the Gordon model for current dividend value, the model of market capitalization of earnings (price/earnings ratio and bearing in mind the influence of the general price levels on company earnings, it is possible to adjust the price/earnings ratio by deriving a function of the required yield on capital markets measured by a market index through dividend yield and inflation rate above the stable inflation rate increased by profit growth. The S&P 500 index for example, has in the last 100 years grown by exactly the inflation rate above the stable inflation rate increased by profit growth. The comparison of two series of price/earnings ratios, a modelled one and an average 7-year ratio, shows a notable correlation in the movement of two series of variables, with a three year deviation. Therefore, it could be hypothesized that three years of the expected inflation level, dividend yield and profit growth rate of the market index are discounted in the current market prices. The conclusion is that, at the present time, the relationship between the adjusted average price/earnings ratio and its effect on the market index on one hand and the modelled price/earnings ratio on the other can clearly show the expected dynamics and course in the following period.

  12. Estimation of heterosis in yield and yield attributing traits in single cross hybrids of maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hari Prasad Sharma

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A field experiment was conducted at National Maize Research Program, Rampur, Chitwan, Nepal during winter season from 6th October, 2015 to 5th March 2016 to estimate different heterosis on single cross maize hybrids . Thirteen maize hybrids were tested randomized complete block design with three replications. Hybrid namely RML-98/RL-105 gave the highest standard heterosis (57.5% for grain yield over CP-666 followed by RML-4/NML-2 (32.6%, RML-95/RL-105 (29% and RML-5/RL-105 (20.6%. The hybrid RML-98/RL-105 produced the highest standard heterosis (75.1% for grain yield over Rajkumar followed by RML-4/NML-2(50.2%, RML-95/RL-105(46.6%, RML-5/RL-105 and (35.7%. Mid and better parent heterosis were significantly higher for yield and yield attributes viz. ear length, ear diameter, no of kernel row per ear, no of kernel per row and test weight. The highest positive mid-parent heterosis for grain yield was found in RML-98/RL-105 followed by RML-5/RL-105, RML-95/RL-105, and RML-4/NML-2. For the grain yield the better parent heterosis was the highest in RML-98/RL-105, followed by RML-5/RL-105, RML-95/RL-105, and RML-4/NML-2. These results suggested that maize production can be maximized by cultivating hybrids namely RML-98/RL-105, RML-5/RL-105, RML-95/RL-105, and RML-4/NML-2 .

  13. Simulation Models of Leaf Area Index and Yield for Cotton Grown with Different Soil Conditioners.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijun Su

    Full Text Available Simulation models of leaf area index (LAI and yield for cotton can provide a theoretical foundation for predicting future variations in yield. This paper analyses the increase in LAI and the relationships between LAI, dry matter, and yield for cotton under three soil conditioners near Korla, Xinjiang, China. Dynamic changes in cotton LAI were evaluated using modified logistic, Gaussian, modified Gaussian, log normal, and cubic polynomial models. Universal models for simulating the relative leaf area index (RLAI were established in which the application rate of soil conditioner was used to estimate the maximum LAI (LAIm. In addition, the relationships between LAIm and dry matter mass, yield, and the harvest index were investigated, and a simulation model for yield is proposed. A feasibility analysis of the models indicated that the cubic polynomial and Gaussian models were less accurate than the other three models for simulating increases in RLAI. Despite significant differences in LAIs under the type and amount of soil conditioner applied, LAIm could be described by aboveground dry matter using Michaelis-Menten kinetics. Moreover, the simulation model for cotton yield based on LAIm and the harvest index presented in this work provided important theoretical insights for improving water use efficiency in cotton cultivation and for identifying optimal application rates of soil conditioners.

  14. CHANGES IN CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS AND CROP YIELD IN KWARA STATE (NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Oriola

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper assessed the vagaries of climatic elements on crop yield in Kwara State with a view to predicting the future climatic suitability level for selected crops in the state. Descriptive and infrential statistics analytical methods were used to examine the pattern of climatic elements for a period of 30 years. Analysis of variance was used to examine the variations in crop yield and also to determine whether or not significant differences in the harvests of the period under investigation. Correlation analysis was used to determine the relationship between climatic elements and crop yield while multiple regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of each climatic elements to crop yield. Time series analysis was used to project crop yield from 2014 to 2025. GAEZ model was adopted to determine the climatic suitability for the selected crops over time 1960 - 2050 and ArcGIS 10.3 software was used to produce the crop suitability maps. The result revealed that cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would be less suitable for production with the rate at which the climate is changing. The result also revealed that the climatic suitability level for cassava, yam, maize and cowpea would reduce drastically with time. The prediction shows severe impacts of changes in the selected climatic elements on both overall climatic suitability and crop the selected crops yield for by 2050.

  15. Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, K G

    1999-05-25

    Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) provide about two-thirds of all energy in human diets, and four major cropping systems in which these cereals are grown represent the foundation of human food supply. Yield per unit time and land has increased markedly during the past 30 years in these systems, a result of intensified crop management involving improved germplasm, greater inputs of fertilizer, production of two or more crops per year on the same piece of land, and irrigation. Meeting future food demand while minimizing expansion of cultivated area primarily will depend on continued intensification of these same four systems. The manner in which further intensification is achieved, however, will differ markedly from the past because the exploitable gap between average farm yields and genetic yield potential is closing. At present, the rate of increase in yield potential is much less than the expected increase in demand. Hence, average farm yields must reach 70-80% of the yield potential ceiling within 30 years in each of these major cereal systems. Achieving consistent production at these high levels without causing environmental damage requires improvements in soil quality and precise management of all production factors in time and space. The scope of the scientific challenge related to these objectives is discussed. It is concluded that major scientific breakthroughs must occur in basic plant physiology, ecophysiology, agroecology, and soil science to achieve the ecological intensification that is needed to meet the expected increase in food demand.

  16. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2010-08-10

    Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately -0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15-65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming.

  17. Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Shuaizhang; Krueger, Alan B.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is expected to cause mass human migration, including immigration across international borders. This study quantitatively examines the linkages among variations in climate, agricultural yields, and people's migration responses by using an instrumental variables approach. Our method allows us to identify the relationship between crop yields and migration without explicitly controlling for all other confounding factors. Using state-level data from Mexico, we find a significant effect of climate-driven changes in crop yields on the rate of emigration to the United States. The estimated semielasticity of emigration with respect to crop yields is approximately −0.2, i.e., a 10% reduction in crop yields would lead an additional 2% of the population to emigrate. We then use the estimated semielasticity to explore the potential magnitude of future emigration. Depending on the warming scenarios used and adaptation levels assumed, with other factors held constant, by approximately the year 2080, climate change is estimated to induce 1.4 to 6.7 million adult Mexicans (or 2% to 10% of the current population aged 15–65 y) to emigrate as a result of declines in agricultural productivity alone. Although the results cannot be mechanically extrapolated to other areas and time periods, our findings are significant from a global perspective given that many regions, especially developing countries, are expected to experience significant declines in agricultural yields as a result of projected warming. PMID:20660749

  18. Yield strength of attached copper film

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yan; Zhang Jian-Min

    2011-01-01

    Variation of stress in attached copper film with an applied strain is measured by X-ray diffraction combined with a four-point bending method. A lower slope of the initial elastic segment of the curve of X-ray measured stress versus applied strain results from incomplete elastic strain transferred from the substrate to the film due to insufficiently strong interface cohesion. So the slope of the initial elastic segment of the X-ray stress (or X-ray strain directly) of the film against the substrate applied strain may be used to measure the film-substrate cohesive strength. The yield strength of the attached copper film is much higher than that of the bulk material and varies linearly with the inverse of the film thickness. (condensed matter: structural, mechanical, and thermal properties)

  19. Optimal green tax reforms yielding double dividend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, Esther; Perez, Rafaela; Ruiz, Jesus

    2011-01-01

    In an stylized endogenous growth economy with a negative externality created by CO2 emissions and in which abatement activities are made by private firms, we find a wide range of dynamically feasible green tax reforms yielding the double dividend without any need to assume a complex production structure or tax system, or a variety of externalities in production. As a remarkable finding, we obtain certain scenarios in which increasing the emissions tax up to the Pigouvian level and removing completely the income tax is dynamically feasible and, also, it is the second-best reform. Hence, as a difference to previous literature, in these scenarios the first-best tax mix is implementable, allowing for the elimination of both environmental and non-environmental inefficiencies. Our result arises because of the consideration of public debt issuing and the management of the government budget balance with an intertemporal perspective. The result is obtained for an intermediate range of environmental bearing in preferences, the valid range being contingent on the pre-existing income tax rate. The type of tax reform that we propose could also be implemented for different energy taxes. - Highlights: → We use an endogenous growth model with a negative externality from CO2 emissions. → Abatement activities are made by private firms to reduce payment of emissions taxes. → We find dynamically feasible green tax reforms yielding the double dividend result. → Our result arises thanks to the inclusion of public debt issuing as a financing device. → The type of tax reform proposed can be implemented for other energy taxes.

  20. Impact of Inter-Row Spacing on Yield and Yield Components of several Annual Medics Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahnaz BAGHERI

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A field study was conducted in Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran to evaluate the effects of three within-row spacing treatments (20, 30 and 40 cm on forage and seed production of five species of annual medics (Medicago scutellata cv. Sava; M. littoralis cv. Herald; M. polymorpha cv. Santiago; M. minima cv. Orion and M. truncatula cv. Mogul. The experiment was carried out in Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. The results of the experiment indicated that M. polymorpha had the highest forage yield out of the highest plant population. Latter with average 443.09 Kg ha-1 and M. scutellata with average 409.99 Kg ha-1 produced the highest seed yield. Also, the last species with 1306.78 Kg ha-1 had the highest pod yields. The highest seed yield and pod yield were produced at 20 cm within-row spacing because there were not adequate plants for maximum seed and pod yields in 30 and 40 cm within-row spacing. The tested plant densities did not affect on seeds number per pod, 1000 seeds weight and seeds to burr pod weight ratio. The M. truncatula and M. minima have the highest seeds number per pod. In addition, M. scutellata had the highest 1000 seeds weight with an average of 12.57 g. The highest seeds to burr pod ratio was observed in M. polymorpha. The most pod numbers were obtained in 20 and 30 cm within-row spacing and M. polymorpha while, the least pod numbers was observed in M. scutellata. Plant densities did not affect on pod numbers of the mentioned species. The highest dry forage yield was produced in 20 cm within-row spacing. Among the tested tested species, M. truncatula had the highest forage yield with average 870.07 Kg ha-1. This experiment indicated that there is possibility for seed and forage production of tested annual medics in the mentioned zone with the considering suitable plant densities.

  1. Effects of mulch practices on fresh ear yield and yield components of sweet corn

    OpenAIRE

    KARA, Burhan; ATAR, Bekir

    2013-01-01

    The experiment was carried out in the vegetation seasons of 2010 and 2011. The main purpose of the study was to determine the effects of mulch practices (a control-unmulched treatment, a plastic mulch treatment, and a straw mulch treatment) on fresh ear yield and some yield-related traits of sweet corn according to 3 sowing dates: 1 April, 15 April, and 1 May, respectively. The main effects of sowing dates were significant for the harvest period, the emerging rate from soil, the fresh ear yie...

  2. Exoplanet Classification and Yield Estimates for Direct Imaging Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar; Hébrard, Eric; Belikov, Rus; Batalha, Natalie M.; Mulders, Gijs D.; Stark, Chris; Teal, Dillon; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn; Mandell, Avi

    2018-04-01

    Future NASA concept missions that are currently under study, like the Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) and the Large Ultra-violet Optical Infra Red Surveyor, could discover a large diversity of exoplanets. We propose here a classification scheme that distinguishes exoplanets into different categories based on their size and incident stellar flux, for the purpose of providing the expected number of exoplanets observed (yield) with direct imaging missions. The boundaries of this classification can be computed using the known chemical behavior of gases and condensates at different pressures and temperatures in a planetary atmosphere. In this study, we initially focus on condensation curves for sphalerite ZnS, {{{H}}}2{{O}}, {CO}}2, and {CH}}4. The order in which these species condense in a planetary atmosphere define the boundaries between different classes of planets. Broadly, the planets are divided into rocky planets (0.5–1.0 R ⊕), super-Earths (1.0–1.75 R ⊕), sub-Neptunes (1.75–3.5 R ⊕), sub-Jovians (3.5–6.0 R ⊕), and Jovians (6–14.3 R ⊕) based on their planet sizes, and “hot,” “warm,” and “cold” based on the incident stellar flux. We then calculate planet occurrence rates within these boundaries for different kinds of exoplanets, η planet, using the community coordinated results of NASA’s Exoplanet Program Analysis Group’s Science Analysis Group-13 (SAG-13). These occurrence rate estimates are in turn used to estimate the expected exoplanet yields for direct imaging missions of different telescope diameters.

  3. Manitoba: path to a hydrogen future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parsons, R.V.; Crone, J.

    2003-01-01

    A hydrogen economy is not just about future clean energy but is also about future economic development. It is about new products, new services, new knowledge, and renewable energy sources that will be ultimately used by consumers in the future, and thus represent potential new economic opportunities. The concept of achieving important environmental and health goals through a cleaner energy economy, based on hydrogen, is not new. Similarly, the desire of individual jurisdictions to seek out and develop economic development opportunities is not new. The key question today becomes one of how to plot directions on hydrogen that will yield appropriate economic development gains in the future. While hydrogen offers significant promise, the prospect benefits are recognized to be still largely long-term in nature. In addition, the ability to identify appropriate future directions is clouded by a degree of 'hydrogen hype' and by a variety of major technical and market uncertainties. During 2002, a unique process was initiated within Manitoba combining these elements to work toward a Hydrogen Economic Development Strategy, a strategy that is ultimately intended to lead the province as a whole to determining our future economic niches for hydrogen. This paper describes the nature of the assessment process undertaken within Manitoba, the outcomes achieved and general insights of relevance to a broader audience. (author)

  4. Evaluation of the Effect of Crop Rotations on Yield and Yield Components of Bread Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Darya)

    OpenAIRE

    H. A. Fallahi; U. Mahmadyarov; H. Sabouri; M. Ezat-Ahmadi4

    2013-01-01

    Grain yield in wheat is influenced directly and indirectly by other plant characteristics. One of the main goals in wheat breeding programs is increase of grain yield. Considering the role of crop rotation in increasing grain yield, and in order to study the difference between crop rotations for wheat yield and yield components (Darya cultivar), an experiment was conducted with six rotation treatments (wheat-chickpea-wheat, wheat-cotton-wheat, wheat-watermelon-wheat, wheat-wheat-wheat, wheat-...

  5. Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Ed; Fricker, Thomas E; Challinor, Andrew J; Ferro, Christopher A T; Kit Ho, Chun; Osborne, Tom M

    2013-01-01

    Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target. PMID:23504849

  6. Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leng, Guoyong

    2017-12-01

    the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes.

  7. Toward an Economic Definition of Sustainable Yield for Coastal Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenson, J. W.; Habana, N. C.; Lander, M.

    2016-12-01

    The concept of aquifer sustainable yield has long been criticized, debated, and even disparaged among groundwater hydrologists, but policy-makers and professional water resource managers inevitably ask them for unequivocal answers to such questions as "What is the absolute maximum volume of water that could be sustainably withdrawn from this aquifer?" We submit that it is therefore incumbent upon hydrologists to develop and offer valid practical definitions of sustainable yield that can be usefully applied to given conditions and types of aquifers. In coastal aquifers, water quality—in terms of salinity—is affected by changes in the natural water budget and the volume rate of artificial extraction. In principle, one can identify a family of assay curves for a given aquifer, showing the specific relationships between the quantity and quality of the water extracted under given conditions of recharge. The concept of the assay curve, borrowed from the literature of natural-resource extraction economics, has to our knowledge not yet found its way into the literature of applied hydrology. The relationships between recharge, extraction, and water quality that define the assay curve can be determined empirically from sufficient observations of groundwater response to recharge and extraction and can be estimated from models that have been reliably history-matched ("calibrated") to such data. We thus propose a working definition of sustainable yield for coastal aquifers in terms of the capacity that ultimately could be achieved by an ideal production system, given what is known or can be assumed about the natural limiting conditions. Accordingly, we also offer an approach for defining an ideal production system for a given aquifer, and demonstrate how observational data and/or modeling results can be used to develop assay curves of quality vs. quantity extracted, which can serve as reliable predictive tools for engineers, managers, regulators, and policy

  8. Focus on the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanner, M.S.

    1988-01-01

    An assessment is made of what was learned from Halley and recommendations are made for future directions for infrared studies of comets and supporting lab investigations. The following issues are addressed: (1) What steps can be taken to achieve consistent interpretation of Halley infrared data; (2) How successful has the Halley Watch been for infrared studies; (3) What supporting lab research is needed; (4) What are the key infrared observations needed for future comets; and (5) How do current and future NASA programs relate to comet studies

  9. Back to the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahrens, F.

    1991-01-01

    A futures contract simply is this: an agreement to buy or sell a certain amount of a certain item for an agreed-upon price at some time in the future - for instance, an agreement to buy 10,000 million British thermal units (MMBtu) of natural gas six months from now at $2.00 per MMBtu. Futures contracts are used for commodities that experience a great deal of price volatility. The gas industry, like the wheat farmer, also has concerns about price volatility

  10. Evaluation of the relationship of sowing qualities and yielding properties of millet seed (Panicum meliaceum L..

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    С. П. Полторецький

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Determination and analysis of relationship of sowing qualities and yield properties of millet seed (Panicum meliaceum L. to be formed by the action of predecessors and conditions of mineral nutrition in the context of unstable moistening in the Right-Bank Forest-Steppe zone of Ukraine. Methods. Mathematico-statistical ones (correlation, regression. Results. The use of correlation pleiades method allowed to analyze multifactor relations of sowing qualities and yield properties of millet seed and establish that there was a direct correlation relationship of medium strength (r = 0.52 ± 0.01 between yielding of maternal and millet plants of the first seed progeny. It was found that maternal plants yielding is strongly correlated with laboratory and technological indicators of seed quality that interrelated through integrated quality parameter of seed material (r = 0.56 ± 0.01 and millet output (r = 0.98 ± 0.00. Integrated quality parameter as well as each of the studied laboratory parameters of seed material quality taken separately have a high-level (r = 0.87…0.96 ± 0.00 effect on the formation of grain yield of the first seed progeny plants. Such physical and technological parameters of the quality of maternal plants yield as a content of protein and fat in seed, seed weight, its uniformity can directly, and millet output, thousand-grain weight and hull content – indirectly indicate peculiarities of forming future grain yield of plants of the first seed progeny. Conclusions. The use of the correlation pleiades method allows to analyze objectively the sowing qualities of millet seed and predict the yield properties in the next generation.

  11. The effects of the regulated deficit irrigation on yield and some yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-05-16

    May 16, 2011 ... human diet and environment, its production requires a significant amount of water due to its relatively shallow root system. Thus, the amount of ... should be applied. Drip irrigation, reduces deep percolation and evaporation ..... processing tomato yield, water table depth, soil salinity and profitability. Agric.

  12. Genetic basis of yield and some yield related traits in basmati rice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, M.Y.; Haq, M.A.; Mirza, J.I.

    2010-01-01

    Additive, dominance and epistasis components of genetic variation for yield and some yield related traits were assessed through modified triple test cross technique in Basmati rice. Epistasis was found an important part of genetic variation for plant height, tillers per plant, secondary branches per panicle, grains per panicle, 1000-grain weight and yield per plant except primary branches per panicle and panicle length. Bifurcation of epistasis showed that additive x additive (i) type and additive x dominance + dominance x dominance (j + l) types of non-allelic interactions were involved in the expression of these traits. Additive and dominance type of gene action influenced the expression of primary branches per panicle and panicle length. No evidence of directional dominance was observed for these two traits. For plant height, tillers per plant, secondary branches per panicle, grains per panicle, 1000-grain weight and yield per plant, recurrent selection or bi parental mating may be exercised in F2 and following generations however, selection of desired plants may be postponed till F5 or F6 generations to permit maximum obsession of epistatic effects to develop desired cultivar(s) in Basmati rice.(author)

  13. Setting maximum sustainable yield targets when yield of one species affects that of other species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rindorf, Anna; Reid, David; Mackinson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    species. But how should we prioritize and identify most appropriate targets? Do we prefer to maximize by focusing on total yield in biomass across species, or are other measures targeting maximization of profits or preserving high living qualities more relevant? And how do we ensure that targets remain...

  14. An evolutionary yield function based on Barlat 2000 yield function for the superconducting niobium sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandi, Payam; Pourboghrat, Farhang

    2011-08-01

    Superconducting radio frequency (SRF) niobium cavities are widely used in high-energy physics to accelerate particle beams in particle accelerators. The performance of SRF cavities is affected by the microstructure and purity of the niobium sheet, surface quality, geometry, etc. Following optimum strain paths in the forming of these cavities can significantly control these parameters. To select these strain paths, however, information about the mechanical behavior, microstructure, and formability of the niobium sheet is required. In this study the Barlat 2000 yield function has been used as a yield function for high purity niobium. Results from this study showed that, due to intrinsic behavior, it is necessary to evolve the anisotropic coefficients of Barlat's yield function in order to properly model the plastic behavior of the niobium sheet. The accuracy of the newly developed evolutionary yield function was verified by applying it to the modeling of the hydrostatic bulging of the niobium sheet. Also, in a separate attempt crystal plasticity finite element method was use to model the behavior of the polycrystalline niobium sheet with a particular initial texture.

  15. An evolutionary yield function based on Barlat 2000 yield function for the superconducting niobium sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darbandi, Payam; Pourboghrat, Farhang

    2011-01-01

    Superconducting radio frequency (SRF) niobium cavities are widely used in high-energy physics to accelerate particle beams in particle accelerators. The performance of SRF cavities is affected by the microstructure and purity of the niobium sheet, surface quality, geometry, etc. Following optimum strain paths in the forming of these cavities can significantly control these parameters. To select these strain paths, however, information about the mechanical behavior, microstructure, and formability of the niobium sheet is required. In this study the Barlat 2000 yield function has been used as a yield function for high purity niobium. Results from this study showed that, due to intrinsic behavior, it is necessary to evolve the anisotropic coefficients of Barlat's yield function in order to properly model the plastic behavior of the niobium sheet. The accuracy of the newly developed evolutionary yield function was verified by applying it to the modeling of the hydrostatic bulging of the niobium sheet. Also, in a separate attempt crystal plasticity finite element method was use to model the behavior of the polycrystalline niobium sheet with a particular initial texture.

  16. Effects of municipal sewage sludge doses on the yield, some yield ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-09-03

    Sep 3, 2008 ... Whereas grain yield, which was the highest component was ... land application, many studies have been performed ... grain. Analysis of variance was used to compare treatment ... een 17.0 - 164.0 cm depending on the environmental .... municipal sewage sludge for the stabilization of soil contaminated by.

  17. Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M.R; Singels, A.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data

  18. Drought impacts on cereal yields in Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, Célia; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Russo, Ana; Montero, Irene

    2014-05-01

    In the present context of climate change, land degradation and desertification it becomes crucial to assess the impact of droughts to determine the environmental consequences of a potential change of climate. Large drought episodes in Iberian Peninsula have widespread ecological and environmental impacts, namely in vegetation dynamics, resulting in significant crop yield losses. During the hydrological years of 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 Iberia was affected by two extreme drought episodes (Garcia-Herrera et al., 2007; Trigo et al., 2013). This work aims to analyze the spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales using spatially distributed time series of drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature. We have used CRU TS3 dataset to compute SPEI and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results will be analyzed in terms of the mechanisms that are responsible by these drought events and will also be used to assess the impact of droughts in crops. Accordingly an analysis is performed to evaluate the large-scale conditions required for a particular extreme anomaly of long-range transport of water vapor from the subtropics. We have used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Interim reanalyses, namely, the geopotential height fields, temperature, wind, divergence data and the specific humidity at all pressure levels and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and total column water vapor (TCWV) for the Euro-Atlantic sector (100°W to 50°E, 0°N-70°N) at full temporal (six hourly) and spatial (T255; interpolated to 0.75° regular horizontal grid) resolutions available to analyse the large-scale conditions associated with the drought onset. Our analysis revealed severe impacts on cereals crop productions and yield (namely wheat) for Portugal and

  19. How Investor Structure Influences the Yield, Information Dissemination Efficiency, and Liquidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongli Che

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay focuses on the investor structure of the stock index futures market and uses agent-based computational finance method to discuss how the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN affects market absolute yield, information dissemination efficiency, and liquidity with different ratios of informed traders in the market. The result shows that the higher the proportion of informed traders is, the more the volatility of the market is. Furthermore, the result indicates that when the proportion of informed traders in the stock index futures market accounts for 1/3-1/2, the transparency and liquidity of the market will be better.

  20. Counseling For Future Shock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Lewis B.

    1974-01-01

    In this article the author looks at some of the searing prophecies made by Alvin Toffler in his book Future Shock and relates them to the world of the professional counselor and the clientele the counselor attempts to serve. (Author)