The error of fixed strategies in IT innovation investment decisions

OpenAIRE

Häckel, Björn; Isakovic, Vasko; Moser, Florian

2013-01-01

Allocating an IT Innovation budget to technologies in different maturity stages (mature vs. fashionable IT innovations) is a demanding task for companies. Due to the dynamic innovation cycles with new emerging technologies, many IT innovation investment decisions follow a bandwagon behavior or fixed investment strategies. Instead of optimizing the IT innovation budget’s allocation to mature or fashionable IT innovations and following a mindful investment strategy, fixed strategies with naïve ...

Optimal Responsible Investment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Pernille

The paper studies retail Socially Responsible Investment and portfolio allocation. It extends conventional portfolio theory by allowing for a personal value based investment decision. When preferences for responsibility enter the framework for mean-variance analysis, it yields an optimal...... responsible investment model. An example of index investing illustrates the theory. Results show that it is crucial for the responsible investor to consider portfolio risk, expected return, and responsibility simultaneously in order to obtain an optimal portfolio. The model enables responsible investors...

Optimal Responsible Investment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Pernille

Numerous institutions are now engaged in Socially Responsible Investment or have signed the "UN Principles for Responsible Investment". Retail investors, however, are still lacking behind. This is peculiar since the sector constitutes key stakeholders in environmental, social and governmental...... standards. This paper considers optimal responsible investment for a small retail investor. It extends conventional portfolio theory by allowing for a personal-value based investment decision. Preferences for responsibility are defined in the framework of mean-variance analysis and an optimal responsible...... investment model identified. Implications of the altered investment problem are investigated when the dynamics between portfolio risk, expected return and responsibility is considered. Relying on the definition of a responsible investor, it is shown how superior investment opportunities can emerge when...

R and D investment strategy for climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanford, Geoffrey J.

2009-01-01

The economic costs of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming century depend critically on the development of new technologies in the energy sector. Our research and development (R and D) investment strategy is the control variable for technology availability. This paper proposes an analytic framework for determining optimal R and D investment allocation and presents some numerical results to demonstrate the implementation of the methodology. The value of technological advance in three targeted areas-fossil-based generation, renewables, and carbon capture and storage-is represented by the increase in expected welfare in the presence of an emissions policy constraint of initially uncertain stringency. R and D expenditure increases the probability of advance. Optimal investment is determined by its relationship with success probability, which is assumed to exhibit decreasing returns to scale, relative to the value of success. While the numerical results are speculative, the paper offers insights into the nature of an optimal technology strategy for addressing climate change. (author)

Optimal Portfolio of Corporate Investment and Consumption Problem under Market Closure: Inflation Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zongyuan Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We present the model of corporate optimal investment with consideration of the influence of inflation and the difference between the market opening and market closure. In our model, the investor has three market activities of his or her choice: investment in project A, investment in project B, and consumption. The optimal strategy for the investor is obtained using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation which is derived using the dynamic programming principle. Further along, a specific case, the Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion case, is discussed in detail, where the explicit optimal strategy can be obtained using a very simple and direct method. At the very end, we present some simulation results along with a brief analysis of the relationship between the optimal strategy and other factors.

Optimizing power system investments and resilience against attacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Yiping; Sansavini, Giovanni

2017-01-01

This paper studies the combination of capacity expansion and switch installation in electric systems that ensures optimum performance under nominal operations and attacks. The planner–attacker–defender model is adopted to develop decisions that minimize investment and operating costs, and functionality loss after attacks. The model bridges long-term system planning for transmission expansion and short-term switching operations in reaction to attacks. The mixed-integer optimization is solved by decomposition via two-layer cutting plane algorithm. Numerical results on an IEEE system shows that small investments in transmission line switching enhance resilience by responding to disruptions via system reconfiguration. Sensitivity analyses show that transmission planning under the assumption of small-scale attacks provides the most robust strategy, i.e. the minimum-regret planning, if many constraints and limited investment budget affect the planning. On the other hand, the assumption of large-scale attacks provides the most robust strategy if the planning process involves large flexibility and budget. - Highlights: • Investment optimization in power systems under attacks is presented. • Capacity expansion and switch installation for system reconfiguration are combined. • The problem is solved by decomposition via two-layer cutting plane algorithm. • Small investments in switch installation enhance resilience by response to attacks. • Sensitivity analyses identify robust planning against different attack scenarios.

Oscillating between Conservation and Investment: A Grounded Theory of Students’ Strategies for Optimizing Personal Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katja Hakel

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Students’ use of time and effort during their studies has been discussed exhaustively in mass media and educational research. In most cases, researchers try to give advice to teachers on how to get their students to become more active and engaged. The grounded theory presented in this article, however, challenges this approach by focusing on the students’ point of view. When interviewing students for this study, I soon realized that students only have a limited amount of time and effort at their disposal. Optimizing these personal resources emerged as their main concern. For the students, investing resources into one study activity always means having to reduce the amount of time and effort they can spend on other activities. They resolve their main concern by oscillating between conservation and investment strategies. Their decision regarding which type of strategy to use depends strongly on the students’ evaluation of their current situation.

Worst-Case Investment and Reinsurance Optimization for an Insurer under Model Uncertainty

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Xiangbo Meng

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study optimal investment-reinsurance strategies for an insurer who faces model uncertainty. The insurer is allowed to acquire new business and invest into a financial market which consists of one risk-free asset and one risky asset whose price process is modeled by a Geometric Brownian motion. Minimizing the expected quadratic distance of the terminal wealth to a given benchmark under the “worst-case” scenario, we obtain the closed-form expressions of optimal strategies and the corresponding value function by solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation. Numerical examples are presented to show the impact of model parameters on the optimal strategies.

Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleten, S.-E.; Maribu, K.M.; Wangensteen, I.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a method for evaluating investments in decentralized renewable power generation under price un certainty. The analysis is applicable for a client with an electricity load and a renewable resource that can be utilized for power generation. The investor has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one local power generating unit, with the objective to maximize the profits from the opportunity. Renewable electricity generation can serve local load when generation and load coincide in time, and surplus power can be exported to the grid. The problem is to find the price intervals and the capacity of the generator at which to invest. Results from a case with wind power generation for an office building suggests it is optimal to wait for higher prices than the net present value break-even price under price uncertainty, and that capacity choice can depend on the current market price and the price volatility. With low price volatility there can be more than one investment price interval for different units with intermediate waiting regions between them. High price volatility increases the value of the investment opportunity, and therefore makes it more attractive to postpone investment until larger units are profitable. (author)

Port Investment Strategies under Uncertainty: The Case of a Southeast Asian Multipurpose Port1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis N. Lagoudis

2014-12-01

The methodology has been applied on the expansion evaluation of warehousing facilities in a multipurpose port. For the evaluation of the alternatives, the expected net present value (ENPV is based on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA. Results show that the investment strategy for a new 4-level warehouse with a flexible option was the optimal choice when compared with strategies of similar scale. However, depending on the emphasis placed on the various investment metrics the optimal investment strategy seems to be closer to a non-flexible 5-level warehouse.

Using genetic algorithms to determine near-optimal pricing, investment and operating strategies in the electric power industry

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Dongjun

Network industries have technologies characterized by a spatial hierarchy, the "network," with capital-intensive interconnections and time-dependent, capacity-limited flows of products and services through the network to customers. This dissertation studies service pricing, investment and business operating strategies for the electric power network. First-best solutions for a variety of pricing and investment problems have been studied. The evaluation of genetic algorithms (GA, which are methods based on the idea of natural evolution) as a primary means of solving complicated network problems, both w.r.t. pricing: as well as w.r.t. investment and other operating decisions, has been conducted. New constraint-handling techniques in GAs have been studied and tested. The actual application of such constraint-handling techniques in solving practical non-linear optimization problems has been tested on several complex network design problems with encouraging initial results. Genetic algorithms provide solutions that are feasible and close to optimal when the optimal solution is know; in some instances, the near-optimal solutions for small problems by the proposed GA approach can only be tested by pushing the limits of currently available non-linear optimization software. The performance is far better than several commercially available GA programs, which are generally inadequate in solving any of the problems studied in this dissertation, primarily because of their poor handling of constraints. Genetic algorithms, if carefully designed, seem very promising in solving difficult problems which are intractable by traditional analytic methods.

VALUE-ADDED SERVICE INVESTING AND PRICING STRATEGIES FOR A TWO-SIDED PLATFORM UNDER INVESTING RESOURCE CONSTRAINT

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Guowei Dou; Ping He

2017-01-01

Investing on value-added service (VAS) amplifies users' participation and platform profit.However,the investing resource is usually limited in practice.This paper investigates VAS investing and pricing strategies for a two-sided platform under investing resource constraint.We reveal that with VAS investment,Subsidizing can still be done to enlarge users' demand,even when the investing cost becomes higher.For optimal pricing strategies,the network effect will be the dominating determinant if the gap between two marginal cross-side benefits (i.e.the benefit that users obtain when each new user join the other side of the platform) is large.Interestingly,we show that with the increase of the marginal investing cost,users might either be priced higher or lower.If the marginal investing cost increases to a high level,and the gap between the two marginal cross-side benefits is large,lowering the access fee for users possessing the higher cross-side network effect does not necessarily compensate more profit loss caused by higher cost.Moreover,after VAS is developed,raising the access fee for those whose marginal investing benefit is large does not necessarily generate more profit as well.The opposite strategy further enlarges users' utility,and promotes the investment to benefit more users.

The Optimal Nash Equilibrium Strategies Under Competition

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

孟力; 王崇喜; 汪定伟; 张爱玲

2004-01-01

This paper presented a game theoretic model to study the competition for a single investment oppertunity under uncertainty. It models the hazard rate of investment as a function of competitors' trigger level. Under uncertainty and different information structure, the option and game theory was applied to researching the optimal Nash equilibrium strategies of one or more firm. By means of Matlab software, the paper simulates a real estate developing project example and illustrates how parameter affects investment strategies. The paper's work will contribute to the present investment practice in China.

Optimal Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a DC Pension Plan with the Return of Premiums Clauses and Annuity Contracts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De-Lei Sheng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Defined contribution and annuity contract are merged into one pension plan to study both accumulation phase and distribution phase, which results in such effects that both phases before and after retirement being “defined”. Under the Heston’s stochastic volatility model, this paper focuses on mean-variance insurers with the return of premiums clauses to study the optimal time-consistent investment strategy for the DC pension merged with an annuity contract. Both accumulation phase before retirement and distribution phase after retirement are studied. In the time-consistent framework, the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations associated with the optimization problem are established. Applying stochastic optimal control technique, the time-consistent explicit solutions of the optimal strategies and the efficient frontiers are obtained. In addition, numerical analysis illustrates our results and also deepens our knowledge or understanding of the research results.

Optimal Strategies for Low Carbon Supply Chain with Strategic Customer Behavior and Green Technology Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Jiang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is mainly caused by excessive emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In order to reduce carbon emissions, cap and trade policy is implemented by governments in many countries, which has significant impacts on the decisions of companies at all levels of the low carbon supply chain. This paper investigates the decision-making and coordination of a low carbon supply chain consisting of a low carbon manufacturer who produces one product and is allowed to invest in green technology to reduce carbon emissions in production and a retailer who faces stochastic demands formed by homogeneous strategic customers. We investigate the optimal production, pricing, carbon trading, and green technology investment strategies of the low carbon supply chain in centralized (including Rational Expected Equilibrium scenario and quantity commitment scenario and decentralized settings. It is demonstrated that quantity commitment strategy can improve the profit of the low carbon supply chain with strategic customer behavior. We also show that the performance of decentralized supply chain is lower than that of quantity commitment scenario. We prove that the low carbon supply chain cannot be coordinated by revenue sharing contract but by revenue sharing-cost sharing contract.

Optimal Regulation of Lumpy Investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zwart, G.; Broer, D.P.

2012-01-01

When a monopolist has discretion over the timing of infrastructure investments, regulation of post-investment prices interferes with incentivizing socially optimal investment timing. In a model of regulated lumpy investment under uncertainty, we study regulation when the regulator can condition

Dynamic Investment Strategies and Leadership in Product Innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dawid, H.; Keoula, M.Y.; Kopel, M.; Kort, Peter

2017-01-01

We employ a dynamic market model with endogenous creation of submarkets to study the optimal product innovation strategies of incumbent firms. Firms invest in production capacity and R&D knowledge stock, where the latter determines the hazard rate of innovation. We find that under Markov Perfect

An Optimal Investment Strategy for Insurers in Incomplete Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed Badaoui

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we consider the problem of an insurance company where the wealth of the insurer is described by a Cramér-Lundberg process. The insurer is allowed to invest in a risky asset with stochastic volatility subject to the influence of an economic factor and the remaining surplus in a bank account. The price of the risky asset and the economic factor are modeled by a system of correlated stochastic differential equations. In a finite horizon framework and assuming that the market is incomplete, we study the problem of maximizing the expected utility of terminal wealth. When the insurer’s preferences are exponential, an existence and uniqueness theorem is proven for the non-linear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation (HJB. The optimal strategy and the value function have been produced in closed form. In addition and in order to show the connection between the insurer’s decision and the correlation coefficient we present two numerical approaches: A Monte-Carlo method based on the stochastic representation of the solution of the insurer problem via Feynman-Kac’s formula, and a mixed Finite Difference Monte-Carlo one. Finally the results are presented in the case of Scott model.

Optimal Investment in Structured Bonds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Pernille; Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

The paper examines the role of structured bonds in the optimal portfolio of a small retail investor. We consider the typical structured bond essentially repacking an exotic option and a zero coupon bond, i.e. an investment with portfolio insurance. The optimal portfolio is found when the investment...

Optimal Investment and Reinsurance for Insurers with Uncertain Time-Horizon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ailing Gu

2014-01-01

state hits the barrier. The objective of the insurer is to maximize the expected discounted exponential utility of her terminal wealth. By dynamic programming approach and Feynman-Kac representation theorem, we derive the expressions for optimal value functions and optimal investment-reinsurance strategies in two special cases. Furthermore, an example is considered under the diffusion-approximation model, which shows some interesting results.

An Optimal Portfolio and Capital Management Strategy for Basel III Compliant Commercial Banks

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Grant E. Muller

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We model a Basel III compliant commercial bank that operates in a financial market consisting of a treasury security, a marketable security, and a loan and we regard the interest rate in the market as being stochastic. We find the investment strategy that maximizes an expected utility of the bank’s asset portfolio at a future date. This entails obtaining formulas for the optimal amounts of bank capital invested in different assets. Based on the optimal investment strategy, we derive a model for the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, which the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS introduced as a measure against banks’ susceptibility to failure. Furthermore, we consider the optimal investment strategy subject to a constant CAR at the minimum prescribed level. We derive a formula for the bank’s asset portfolio at constant (minimum CAR value and present numerical simulations on different scenarios. Under the optimal investment strategy, the CAR is above the minimum prescribed level. The value of the asset portfolio is improved if the CAR is at its (constant minimum value.

The Heterogeneous Investment Horizon and Dynamic Strategies for Asset Allocation

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Heping; Xu, Yiheng; Xiao, Yi

This paper discusses the influence of the portfolio rebalancing strategy on the efficiency of long-term investment portfolios under the assumption of independent stationary distribution of returns. By comparing the efficient sets of the stochastic rebalancing strategy, the simple rebalancing strategy and the buy-and-hold strategy with specific data examples, we find that the stochastic rebalancing strategy is optimal, while the simple rebalancing strategy is of the lowest efficiency. In addition, the simple rebalancing strategy lowers the efficiency of the portfolio instead of improving it.

CHARACTERISTICS OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS PASSIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ON THE CAPITAL MARKET

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MIHAELA SUDACEVSCHI

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The strategies of investment portfolios management on the capital market involves a range of transactions with different financial securities, aimed at optimizing the results. On a developed and efficient capital market, with a high liquidity level, portfolio management primarly depends on investor’s targeted level of return and the risk profile of the investor. Passive strategy of investment portfolios management is applied especially by risk aversion investors, who are taking into account all existing risks in the capital market and seeking to preserve the value of investments, rather than increasing its value. This strategy presume that the investor has no information about the prices and the return of securities that would make him to give to his investment portfolio a different structure from the structure of capital market portfolio. Therefore, he will seek a return level equal to the return on the market portfolio, minimizing the portfolio risk up to eliminating the specific risk.

Optimal Investment Control of Macroeconomic Systems

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHAO Ke-jie; LIU Chuan-zhe

2006-01-01

Economic growth is always accompanied by economic fluctuation. The target of macroeconomic control is to keep a basic balance of economic growth, accelerate the optimization of economic structures and to lead a rapid, sustainable and healthy development of national economies, in order to propel society forward. In order to realize the above goal, investment control must be regarded as the most important policy for economic stability. Readjustment and control of investment includes not only control of aggregate investment, but also structural control which depends on economic-technology relationships between various industries of a national economy. On the basis of the theory of a generalized system, an optimal investment control model for government has been developed. In order to provide a scientific basis for government to formulate a macroeconomic control policy, the model investigates the balance of total supply and aggregate demand through an adjustment in investment decisions realizes a sustainable and stable growth of the national economy. The optimal investment decision function proposed by this study has a unique and specific expression, high regulating precision and computable characteristics.

Investment Strategy and Efficiency of Investment Activity of European Insurers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhabynets Olga Yo.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The article studies investment strategy and efficiency of investment activity of European insurance companies. In particular, it analyses the share of investments of insurance companies of Europe in GDP, investment portfolio of European insurers and its structure, contribution of insurance companies – leaders of investment activity – into the European investment portfolio. It studies influence of the financial crisis upon investment strategy of European insurers and analyses efficiency of investment activity of European insurers in risk insurance and life insurance. The article proves that investment business models of insurance companies are capable of resisting crisis phenomena more efficiently than other financial institutions. It marks out that measures of insurance companies that are directed at increase of profitability of investments require from them both significant expenditures on creation of the system of investment risk management and open access to different categories of financial assets and markets, which influences the general risk level, taken upon by an insurance company. The author draws a conclusion that, taking into account recent developments, European insurers should focus on equity and investment risk management, finding new possibilities for their (investments growth and also adaptation of new systems and operations for solution of these important tasks.

Selection of the Bank Investment Strategy on the Basis of the Hierarchy Analysis Method

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Zhytar Maksym O.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in identification of a methodical approach to selection of the investment strategy of banks on the basis of factors of its formation with the use of the hierarchy analysis method. Factors of formation of the bank’s investment strategy were identified in the result of the study. The article demonstrates that selection of the investment strategy of the bank could be efficiently realised on the basis of the hierarchy analysis method, which is the most popular under conditions of a multi-criteria assessment of the search for optimal solution of the set task. The article offers a hierarchical structure of decision making, which could be a basis of selection of the bank’s investment strategy with consideration of the institutional flexibility. The prospect of further study in this direction is development of an optimisation model of the bank’s investment portfolio with consideration of not only institutional, but also market flexibility of decision making.

Optimal Strategy and Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johnson, Peter; Foss, Nicolai Juul

2016-01-01

This study picks up on earlier suggestions that control theory may further the study of strategy. Strategy can be formally interpreted as an idealized path optimizing heterogeneous resource deployment to produce maximum financial gain. Using standard matrix methods to describe the firm Hamiltonia...... variable of firm path, suggesting in turn that the firm's business model is the codification of the application of investment resources used to control the strategic path of value realization....

Optimizing investments in coupled offshore wind -electrolytic hydrogen storage systems in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hou, Peng; Enevoldsen, Peter; Eichman, Joshua

2017-01-01

, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells is explored. This research reveals the investment potential of coupling offshore wind farms with different hydrogen systems. The benefits in terms of a return on investment are demonstrated with data from the Danish electricity markets. This research also investigates......In response to electricity markets with growing levels of wind energy production and varying electricity prices, this research examines incentives for investments in integrated renewable energy power systems. A strategy for using optimization methods for a power system consisting of wind turbines...

Optimal Reinsurance-Investment Problem for an Insurer and a Reinsurer with Jump-Diffusion Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanlei Hu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The optimal reinsurance-investment strategies considering the interests of both the insurer and reinsurer are investigated. The surplus process is assumed to follow a jump-diffusion process and the insurer is permitted to purchase proportional reinsurance from the reinsurer. Applying dynamic programming approach and dual theory, the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations are derived and the optimal strategies for exponential utility function are obtained. In addition, several sensitivity analyses and numerical illustrations in the case with exponential claiming distributions are presented to analyze the effects of parameters about the optimal strategies.

Optimum investment strategy in the power industry mathematical models

CERN Document Server

Bartnik, Ryszard; Hnydiuk-Stefan, Anna

2016-01-01

This book presents an innovative methodology for identifying optimum investment strategies in the power industry. To do so, it examines results including, among others, the impact of oxy-fuel technology on CO2 emissions prices, and the specific cost of electricity production. The technical and economic analysis presented here extend the available knowledge in the field of investment optimization in energy engineering, while also enabling investors to make decisions involving its application. Individual chapters explore the potential impacts of different factors like environmental charges on costs connected with investments in the power sector, as well as discussing the available technologies for heat and power generation. The book offers a valuable resource for researchers, market analysts, decision makers, power engineers and students alike.

Optimal Priority Structure, Capital Structure, and Investment

OpenAIRE

Dirk Hackbarth; David C. Mauer

2012-01-01

We study the interaction between financing and investment decisions in a dynamic model, where the firm has multiple debt issues and equityholders choose the timing of investment. Jointly optimal capital and priority structures can virtually eliminate investment distortions because debt priority serves as a dynamically optimal contract. Examining the relative efficiency of priority rules observed in practice, we develop several predictions about how firms adjust their priority structure in res...

Minimal investment risk of a portfolio optimization problem with budget and investment concentration constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2017-02-01

In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is intuitive that the minimal investment risk for the problem with an investment concentration constraint can be larger than that without the constraint (that is, with only the budget constraint). Moreover, a numerical experiment shows the effectiveness of our proposed analysis. In contrast, the standard operations research approach failed to identify accurately the minimal investment risk of the portfolio optimization problem.

Investment under uncertainty : Timing and capacity optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wen, Xingang

2017-01-01

This thesis consists of three chapters on analyzing the optimal investment timing and investment capacity for the firm(s) undertaking irreversible investment in an uncertain environment. Chapter 2 studies the investment decision of a monopoly firm when it can adjust output quantity in a market with

Optimal control, investment and utilization schemes for energy storage under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Mirhosseini, Niloufar Sadat

Energy storage has the potential to offer new means for added flexibility on the electricity systems. This flexibility can be used in a number of ways, including adding value towards asset management, power quality and reliability, integration of renewable resources and energy bill savings for the end users. However, uncertainty about system states and volatility in system dynamics can complicate the question of when to invest in energy storage and how best to manage and utilize it. This work proposes models to address different problems associated with energy storage within a microgrid, including optimal control, investment, and utilization. Electric load, renewable resources output, storage technology cost and electricity day-ahead and spot prices are the factors that bring uncertainty to the problem. A number of analytical methodologies have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models. Model Predictive Control and discretized dynamic programming, along with a new decomposition algorithm are used to develop optimal control schemes for energy storage for two different levels of renewable penetration. Real option theory and Monte Carlo simulation, coupled with an optimal control approach, are used to obtain optimal incremental investment decisions, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. Two stage stochastic programming is used to develop a novel and holistic methodology, including utilization of energy storage within a microgrid, in order to optimally interact with energy market. Energy storage can contribute in terms of value generation and risk reduction for the microgrid. The integration of the models developed here are the basis for a framework which extends from long term investments in storage capacity to short term operational control (charge/discharge) of storage within a microgrid. In particular, the following practical goals are achieved: (i) optimal investment on storage capacity over time to maximize savings during normal and emergency

The Optimal Strategy to Research Pension Funds in China Based on the Loss Function

OpenAIRE

Gao, Jian-wei; Guo, Hong-zhen; Ye, Yan-cheng

2007-01-01

Based on the theory of actuarial present value, a pension fund investment goal can be formulated as an objective function. The mean-variance model is extended by defining the objective loss function. Furthermore, using the theory of stochastic optimal control, an optimal investment model is established under the minimum expectation of loss function. In the light of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, the analytic solution of the optimal investment strategy problem is derived.

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver, E-mail: mtk@atp.dk [ATP (Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Scheme) (Denmark); Steffensen, Mogens, E-mail: mogens@math.ku.dk [University of Copenhagen, Department of Mathematical Sciences (Denmark)

2015-06-15

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth. The optimal consumption strategy is given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. In order to have a more realistic model we allow the risk aversion to be time and state dependent. Of special interest is the case were the risk aversion is inversely proportional to present wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal consumption strategy is again given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. We also calculate, for a general time and state dependent risk aversion function, the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-standard deviation investor without pre-commitment. In that case, it turns out that it is optimal to take no risk at all.

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver; Steffensen, Mogens

2015-01-01

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth. The optimal consumption strategy is given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. In order to have a more realistic model we allow the risk aversion to be time and state dependent. Of special interest is the case were the risk aversion is inversely proportional to present wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal consumption strategy is again given as a deterministic bang-bang strategy. We also calculate, for a general time and state dependent risk aversion function, the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-standard deviation investor without pre-commitment. In that case, it turns out that it is optimal to take no risk at all

The Optimal Strategy to Research Pension Funds in China Based on the Loss Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian-wei Gao

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Based on the theory of actuarial present value, a pension fund investment goal can be formulated as an objective function. The mean-variance model is extended by defining the objective loss function. Furthermore, using the theory of stochastic optimal control, an optimal investment model is established under the minimum expectation of loss function. In the light of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation, the analytic solution of the optimal investment strategy problem is derived.

Information Technology Investment Strategy Planning: Balance Scorecard Approach

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Henny Hendarti

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this research are to prepare the IT investment strategy using Balanced Scorecard approach in the company where the appropriate planning of this IT investment strategy can maximize the competitive benefit in the company, and it also to recommended a strategy of IT investment that can be implemented and measure the rate of return from the IT investment in the company. Research Method used book studies, field studies, and analysis system. Book studies from the books and journal. Field studies done by observation, interview, and questioner, and analysis system done by analyzed the ongoing system in the company. The result from this analysis is a recommendation in investment IT such as sales module, payment module, and report module. Then for the conclusion, this information technology investment planning can be develop to another investment implementation such authorized website of the company and using PDA (Personal Digital AssistantIndex Terms - Planning, Information Technology, Investment, Balance Scorecard

The investment strategy of commercial banks on the financial markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ercegovac Dajana

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In contemporary market conditions classical deposit-loan strategy is not enough anymore in order to ensure survival of the commercial banks on the financial market and to reach profit that is high enough. Besides the loan placements strategy, it is necessary to adopt an adequate investment strategy which will contribute to the profitability, liquidity and safety of gross asset portfolio. Commercial banks, unlike investment banks, invest smaller part of their resources into securities of diverse maturity on financial markets. However, with the harsh competition of banks and other non-banking institutions, significance of investment portfolio grows as an alternative that ensures additional sources of revenue, assures liquidity, diversification of placements and decreases risk exposure. Banks have at their disposal vast range of investment strategies that can be combined depending on their investment objectives and risk aversion, such as passive and active strategy, strategy of ladder, weights strategy etc. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present the significance of investment portfolio in commercial banks and the basic management strategies of investment portfolio that can be used by commercial banks.

Solving Constrained Consumption-Investment Problems by Simulation of Artificial Market Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bick, Björn; Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus

2013-01-01

Utility-maximizing consumption and investment strategies in closed form are unknown for realistic settings involving portfolio constraints, incomplete markets, and potentially a high number of state variables. Standard numerical methods are hard to implement in such cases. We propose a numerical...... procedure that combines the abstract idea of artificial, unconstrained complete markets, well-known closed-form solutions in affine or quadratic return models, straightforward Monte Carlo simulation, and a standard iterative optimization routine. Our method provides an upper bound on the wealth......-equivalent loss compared to the unknown optimal strategy, and it facilitates our understanding of the economic forces at play by building on closed-form expressions for the strategies considered. We illustrate and test our method on the life-cycle problem of an individual who receives unspanned labor income...

Capital investment strategies in health care systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Reiter, K L; Smith, D G; Wheeler, J R; Rivenson, H L

2000-01-01

Capital investment decisions are among the most important decisions made by firms. They determine the firm's capacity for providing services and commit the firm's cash for an extended period of time. Interviews with chief financial officers of leading health care systems reveal capital investment strategies that generally follow the recommendations of modern finance theory. Still, there is substantial variation in capital budgeting techniques, methods of risk adjustment, and the importance of qualitative considerations in investment decision making. There is also variation in delegation of investment decision making to operating units and methods of performance evaluation. Health care systems face the same challenges as other organizations in developing and implementing capital investment strategies that use consistent methods for evaluation of projects that have inconsistent aims and outcomes.

Optimal investment horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Simonsen, I.; Jensen, M. H.; Johansen, A.

2002-06-01

In stochastic finance, one traditionally considers the return as a competitive measure of an asset, i.e., the profit generated by that asset after some fixed time span Δt, say one week or one year. This measures how well (or how bad) the asset performs over that given period of time. It has been established that the distribution of returns exhibits ``fat tails'' indicating that large returns occur more frequently than what is expected from standard Gaussian stochastic processes [1-3]. Instead of estimating this ``fat tail'' distribution of returns, we propose here an alternative approach, which is outlined by addressing the following question: What is the smallest time interval needed for an asset to cross a fixed return level of say 10%? For a particular asset, we refer to this time as the investment horizon and the corresponding distribution as the investment horizon distribution. This latter distribution complements that of returns and provides new and possibly crucial information for portfolio design and risk-management, as well as for pricing of more exotic options. By considering historical financial data, exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we obtain a novel set of probability distributions for the investment horizons which can be used to estimate the optimal investment horizon for a stock or a future contract.

Low-beta investment strategies

OpenAIRE

Korn, Olaf; Kuntz, Laura-Chloé

2015-01-01

This paper investigates investment strategies that exploit the low-beta anomaly. Although the notion of buying low-beta stocks and selling high-beta stocks is natural, a choice is necessary with respect to the relative weighting of high-beta stocks and low-beta stocks in the investment portfolio. Our empirical results for US large-cap stocks show that this choice is very important for the risk-return characteristics of the resulting portfolios and their sensitivities to common risk factors. W...

An Analysis of a Free Cashflow Portfolio Investment Strategy ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An Analysis of a Free Cashflow Portfolio Investment Strategy. ... African Journal of Finance and Management ... risks that are less than one, so without additional risk, the investment strategy yields higher returns than an international investment ...

Optimal lag in dynamical investments

OpenAIRE

Serva, M.

1998-01-01

A portfolio of different stocks and a risk-less security whose composition is dynamically maintained stable by trading shares at any time step leads to a growth of the capital with a nonrandom rate. This is the key for the theory of optimal-growth investment formulated by Kelly. In presence of transaction costs, the optimal composition changes and, more important, it turns out that the frequency of transactions must be reduced. This simple observation leads to the definition of an optimal lag...

Considerations on Optimal Financial Invest ment into Infrastructural Facilities

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2002-01-01

The enlargement of government's investment into infrastructural construction is both a help medicine curing economic contraction and an effective measure to accumulate long-term economic growth.. However, the investment by finance into infrastructure also has a problem of optimization and reasonable selection. In view of market economic requirements, the policy direction of financial investment into infrastructural industries must be doing something at the expense of some other things. In the process of the adjustment and optimization of economic structure, state financial investment into infrastructural facilities has to first of all solve the problem of delimitating the best fields and selecting trades. As to the infrastructure facilities producing and selling pure public products, the development must be made by financial investment;As to the production fields of subpublic products, finance should ensure reasonable investment; As to the infrastructural facilities of pure privite production, finance should completely, in principle, pull out and let market supply. On this basis, selections should be made on best capital soureces and investment ways. The capital sources should be mainly from tax and regulational income and direct investment may be made. As to the production fields of most subpublic production, the best capital sources are national debt income and indirect investment may be made. In addition, the optimization of financial investment into infrastructural facilities must reform the managerial system of infrastructural facilities and raise investment efficiency. Only by scientifically selecting and arranging the financing ways and managerial system in investment fields,can the maximum economic efficiency and social welfare results be realized in carrying out financial investment into infrastructural facilities.

Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

2018-02-01

Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

EFFICIENCY OF THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY OF THE INSURANCE COMPANIES IN UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Pikus

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The article explores the theoretical basis for the formation of an effective investment strategy of the insurance company. It was determined that, depending on the insurer’s conduct and risk factor and yield of funds, investment strategy can be aggressive, moderate and conservative. The main factors that characterize conservative, aggressive and moderately conservative investment strategy are defined. The characteristic of the structure of the investment portfolio of domestic insurance companies is determined. There are insurance companies which conduct an aggressive, conservative and moderately conservative investment strategy. In the article defined the main directions of investments of insurance companies in Ukraine which include bank deposits, government securities and shares. Determined that majority of insurance companies in the insurance market of Ukraine followed a conservative investment strategy which is the least risky. It is noted that in view of difficult economic situation in Ukraine, insurance companies need to develop an effective investment strategy to ensure their ability to pay.

Investments Portfolio Optimal Planning for industrial assets management: Method and Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lonchampt, Jerome; Fessart, Karine

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the method and tool dedicated to optimize investments planning for industrial assets. These investments may either be preventive maintenance tasks, asset enhancement or logistic investment such as spare parts purchase. The three methodological points to investigate in such an issue are: 1. The measure of the profitability of a portfolio of investments 2. The selection and planning of an optimal set of investments 3. The measure of the risk of a portfolio of investments The measure of the profitability of a set of investments in the IPOP (registered) tool is synthesised in the Net Present Value indicator. The NPV is the sum of the differences of discounted cash flows (direct costs, forced outages...) between the situations with and without a given investment. These cash flows are calculated through a pseudo-markov reliability model representing independently the components of the industrial asset and the spare parts inventories. The component model has been widely discussed over the years but the spare part model is a new one based on some approximations that will be discussed. This model, referred as the NPV function, takes for input an investments portfolio and gives its NPV. The second issue is to optimize the NPV. If all investments were independent, this optimization would be an easy calculation, unfortunately there are two sources of dependency. The first one is introduced by the spare part model, as if components are indeed independent in their reliability model, the fact that several components use the same inventory induces a dependency. The second dependency comes from economic, technical or logistic constraints, such as a global maintenance budget limit or a precedence constraint between two investments, making the aggregation of individual optimum not necessary feasible. The algorithm used to solve such a difficult optimization problem is a genetic algorithm. After a description of the features of the software a

Dispositional optimism and stock investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Angelini, Viola; Cavapozzi, D.

This paper analyzes the relationship between dispositional optimism and stock investments, controlling for cognitive skills and personality traits such as trust, social interactions and risk aversion. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on investors aged

Risk-averse portfolio selection of renewable electricity generator investments in Brazil: An optimised multi-market commercialisation strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maier, Sebastian; Street, Alexandre; McKinnon, Ken

2016-01-01

Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. - Highlights: • Gives a portfolio-based multi-market, multi-asset approach to renewable investment. • Details how to model currently used contract types in each of the Brazilian markets. • Presents a test case using realistic contract and real renewable data from Brazil. • Shows that the approach controls financial risks and boosts optimal values. • Explains how relative contract prices and attitude to risk affect optimal decisions.

Optimal Time to Invest Energy Storage System under Uncertainty Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongma Moon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a model to determine the optimal investment time for energy storage systems (ESSs in a price arbitrage trade application under conditions of uncertainty over future profits. The adoption of ESSs can generate profits from price arbitrage trade, which are uncertain because the future marginal prices of electricity will change depending on supply and demand. In addition, since the investment is optional, an investor can delay adopting an ESS until it becomes profitable, and can decide the optimal time. Thus, when we evaluate this investment, we need to incorporate the investor’s option which is not captured by traditional evaluation methods. In order to incorporate these aspects, we applied real option theory to our proposed model, which provides an optimal investment threshold. Our results concerning the optimal time to invest show that if future profits that are expected to be obtained from arbitrage trade become more uncertain, an investor needs to wait longer to invest. Also, improvement in efficiency of ESSs can reduce the uncertainty of arbitrage profit and, consequently, the reduced uncertainty enables earlier ESS investment, even for the same power capacity. Besides, when a higher rate of profits is expected and ESS costs are higher, an investor needs to wait longer. Also, by comparing a widely used net present value model to our real option model, we show that the net present value method underestimates the value for ESS investment and misleads the investor to make an investment earlier.

A stochastic dynamic model for optimal timing of investments in new generation capacity in restructured power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Korpaas, Magnus

2007-01-01

In this paper we formulate the power generation investment problem for a decentralised and profit-maximising investor operating in a restructured and competitive power system. In particular, we look at how uncertainty influences the optimal timing of investments in new power generation capacity. A real options approach is used to take long-term uncertainty in load growth, and its influence on future electricity prices, into account in the investment optimisation. In order to value the operational flexibility of a new power plant we use an electricity price model, where the spot price is a function of load level and installed generation capacity, in addition to short-term uncertainties and temporal fluctuations in the market. The investor's income from a capacity payment, which also can depend on the system's total capacity balance, can also be represented. Hence, with the optimisation model we can analyse power plant profitability and optimal timing of new investments under different market designs. In a case study from the Nordic electricity market we analyse the effect of uncertainty on optimal investment timing. We also examine how a fixed or variable capacity payment would influence the investment decision, and discuss the system consequences of the resulting investment strategies. (author)

Optimization of investments in gas networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.

2010-09-01

The natural gas networks require very important investments to cope with a still growing demand and to satisfy the new regulatory constraints. The gas market deregulation imposed to the gas network operators, first, transparency rules of a natural monopoly to justify their costs and ultimately their tariffs, and, second, market fluidity objectives in order to facilitate access for competition to the end-users. These major investments are the main reasons for the use of optimization techniques aiming at reducing the costs. Due to the discrete choices (investment location, limited choice of additional capacities, timing) crossed with physical non linear constraints (flow/pressures relations in the pipe or operating ranges of compressors), the programs to solve are Large Mixed Non Linear Programs (MINLP). As these types of programs are known to be hard to solve exactly in polynomial times (NP-hard), advanced optimization methods have to be implemented to obtain realistic results. The objectives of this thesis are threefold. First, one states several investment problems modeling of natural gas networks from industrial world motivations. Second, one identifies the most suitable methods and algorithms to the formulated problems. Third, one exposes the main advantages and drawbacks of these methods with the help of numerical applications on real cases. (author)

H–J–B Equations of Optimal Consumption-Investment and Verification Theorems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagai, Hideo, E-mail: nagaih@kansai-u.ac.jp [Kansai University, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering Science (Japan)

2015-04-15

We consider a consumption-investment problem on infinite time horizon maximizing discounted expected HARA utility for a general incomplete market model. Based on dynamic programming approach we derive the relevant H–J–B equation and study the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the nonlinear partial differential equation. By using the smooth solution we construct the optimal consumption rate and portfolio strategy and then prove the verification theorems under certain general settings.

H–J–B Equations of Optimal Consumption-Investment and Verification Theorems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Hideo

2015-01-01

We consider a consumption-investment problem on infinite time horizon maximizing discounted expected HARA utility for a general incomplete market model. Based on dynamic programming approach we derive the relevant H–J–B equation and study the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the nonlinear partial differential equation. By using the smooth solution we construct the optimal consumption rate and portfolio strategy and then prove the verification theorems under certain general settings

HIV Treatment and Prevention: A Simple Model to Determine Optimal Investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Juusola, Jessie L; Brandeau, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To create a simple model to help public health decision makers determine how to best invest limited resources in HIV treatment scale-up and prevention. A linear model was developed for determining the optimal mix of investment in HIV treatment and prevention, given a fixed budget. The model incorporates estimates of secondary health benefits accruing from HIV treatment and prevention and allows for diseconomies of scale in program costs and subadditive benefits from concurrent program implementation. Data sources were published literature. The target population was individuals infected with HIV or at risk of acquiring it. Illustrative examples of interventions include preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), community-based education (CBE), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US. Outcome measures were incremental cost, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and HIV infections averted. Base case analysis indicated that it is optimal to invest in ART before PrEP and to invest in CBE before scaling up ART. Diseconomies of scale reduced the optimal investment level. Subadditivity of benefits did not affect the optimal allocation for relatively low implementation levels. The sensitivity analysis indicated that investment in ART before PrEP was optimal in all scenarios tested. Investment in ART before CBE became optimal when CBE reduced risky behavior by 4% or less. Limitations of the study are that dynamic effects are approximated with a static model. Our model provides a simple yet accurate means of determining optimal investment in HIV prevention and treatment. For MSM in the US, HIV control funds should be prioritized on inexpensive, effective programs like CBE, then on ART scale-up, with only minimal investment in PrEP. © The Author(s) 2015.

A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2011-01-01

The long-term economic outcome of energy-related industrial investment projects is difficult to evaluate because of uncertain energy market conditions. In this article, a general, multistage, stochastic programming model for the optimization of investments in process integration and industrial energy technologies is proposed. The problem is formulated as a mixed-binary linear programming model where uncertainties are modelled using a scenario-based approach. The objective is to maximize the expected net present value of the investments which enables heat savings and decreased energy imports or increased energy exports at an industrial plant. The proposed modelling approach enables a long-term planning of industrial, energy-related investments through the simultaneous optimization of immediate and later decisions. The stochastic programming approach is also suitable for modelling what is possibly complex process integration constraints. The general model formulation presented here is a suitable basis for more specialized case studies dealing with optimization of investments in energy efficiency. -- Highlights: → Stochastic programming approach to long-term planning of process integration investments. → Extensive mathematical model formulation. → Multi-stage investment decisions and scenario-based modelling of uncertain energy prices. → Results illustrate how investments made now affect later investment and operation opportunities. → Approach for evaluation of robustness with respect to variations in probability distribution.

Purchasing and inventory management techniques for optimizing inventory investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFarlane, I.; Gehshan, T.

1993-01-01

In an effort to reduce operations and maintenance costs among nuclear plants, many utilities are taking a closer look at their inventory investment. Various approaches for inventory reduction have been used and discussed, but these approaches are often limited to an inventory management perspective. Interaction with purchasing and planning personnel to reduce inventory investment is a necessity in utility efforts to become more cost competitive. This paper addresses the activities that purchasing and inventory management personnel should conduct in an effort to optimize inventory investment while maintaining service-level goals. Other functions within a materials management organization, such as the warehousing and investment recovery functions, can contribute to optimizing inventory investment. However, these are not addressed in this paper because their contributions often come after inventory management and purchasing decisions have been made

Optimizing investments in coupled offshore wind -electrolytic hydrogen storage systems in Denmark

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Peng; Enevoldsen, Peter; Eichman, Joshua; Hu, Weihao; Jacobson, Mark Z.; Chen, Zhe

2017-08-01

In response to electricity markets with growing levels of wind energy production and varying electricity prices, this research examines incentives for investments in integrated renewable energy power systems. A strategy for using optimization methods for a power system consisting of wind turbines, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells is explored. This research reveals the investment potential of coupling offshore wind farms with different hydrogen systems. The benefits in terms of a return on investment are demonstrated with data from the Danish electricity markets. This research also investigates the tradeoffs between selling the hydrogen directly to customers or using it as a storage medium to re-generate electricity at a time when it is more valuable. This research finds that the most beneficial configuration is to produce hydrogen at a time that complements the wind farm and sell the hydrogen directly to end users.

7 CFR 1948.82 - Plan and State Investment Strategy approval procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... the State Investment Strategy for Energy Impacted Areas. (c) Appropriate growth management and/or... 7 Agriculture 13 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Plan and State Investment Strategy approval procedure... Impacted Area Development Assistance Program § 1948.82 Plan and State Investment Strategy approval...

Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John, Oliver

2012-07-01

The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

2009-02-15

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2009-01-01

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

Optimal investment for enhancing social concern about biodiversity conservation: a dynamic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joung Hun; Iwasa, Yoh

2012-11-01

To maintain biodiversity conservation areas, we need to invest in activities, such as monitoring the condition of the ecosystem, preventing illegal exploitation, and removing harmful alien species. These require a constant supply of resources, the level of which is determined by the concern of the society about biodiversity conservation. In this paper, we study the optimal fraction of the resources to invest in activities for enhancing the social concern y(t) by environmental education, museum displays, publications, and media exposure. We search for the strategy that maximizes the time-integral of the quality of the conservation area x(t) with temporal discounting. Analyses based on dynamic programming and Pontryagin's maximum principle show that the optimal control consists of two phases: (1) in the first phase, the social concern level approaches to the final optimal value y(∗), (2) in the second phase, resources are allocated to both activities, and the social concern level is kept constant y(t) = y(∗). If the social concern starts from a low initial level, the optimal path includes a period in which the quality of the conservation area declines temporarily, because all the resources are invested to enhance the social concern. When the support rate increases with the quality of the conservation area itself x(t) as well as with the level of social concern y(t), both variables may increase simultaneously in the second phase. We discuss the implication of the results to good management of biodiversity conservation areas. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using Impulse Control Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Kort, Peter; Prskawetz, Alexia

2017-04-01

Flooding events can affect businesses close to rivers, lakes or coasts. This paper provides a partial equilibrium model which helps to understand the optimal location choice for a firm in flood risk areas and its investment strategies. How often, when and how much are firms willing to invest in flood risk protection measures? We apply Impulse Control Theory to solve the model analytically and develop a continuation algorithm to solve the model numerically. Firms always invest in flood defense. The investment increases the higher the flood risk and the more firms also value the future, i.e. the more sustainable they plan. Investments in production capital follow a similar path. Hence, planning in a sustainable way leads to economic growth. Sociohydrological feedbacks are crucial for the location choice of the firm, whereas different economic situations have an impact on investment strategies. If flood defense is already present, e.g. built up by the government, firms move closer to the water and invest less in flood defense, which allows firms to accrue higher expected profits. Firms with a large initial production capital surprisingly try not to keep their market advantage, but rather reduce flood risk by reducing exposed production capital.

Liability-driven investment in longevity risk management

OpenAIRE

Helena Aro; Teemu Pennanen

2013-01-01

This paper studies optimal investment from the point of view of an investor with longevity-linked liabilities. The relevant optimization problems rarely are analytically tractable, but we are able to show numerically that liability driven investment can significantly outperform common strategies that do not take the liabilities into account. In problems without liabilities the advantage disappears, which suggests that the superiority of the proposed strategies is indeed based on connections b...

Applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Meilan; Fu, Hongwei

2017-09-01

Recently, polynomial optimization has many important applications in optimization, financial economics and eigenvalues of tensor, etc. This paper studies the applications of polynomial optimization in financial risk investment. We consider the standard mean-variance risk measurement model and the mean-variance risk measurement model with transaction costs. We use Lasserre's hierarchy of semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxations to solve the specific cases. The results show that polynomial optimization is effective for some financial optimization problems.

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezhi Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

Capital optimization: linking investment with strategic intent.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Allan; Bacchetti, J Alex

2004-01-01

With operating margins showing some improvement in 2003, Y2K being a distant memory, and many critical capital investment decisions delayed as long as possible, hospitals have been on a relative spending spree, building new facilities, renovating operating rooms and inpatient units, and investing in new medical and information technologies. However, with pressure on both cost and revenue expected to continue, if not increase, this spending spree may be short-lived, and hospitals must improve their capital planning efforts; align them with their mission, vision, and strategies; and ensure that capital is available when unplanned or even expected needs arise. This article explores some of the challenges that hospitals face in their capital planning efforts and, more importantly, suggests the necessity for hospitals to integrate capital and strategic planning. Capital planning must be driven by an organization's strategies; however, we also argue that an organization's ability to execute its strategies is highly dependent on the existence of a cohesive capital prioritization and planning process. In this article, we explore a number of issues critical to developing a comprehensive capital plan, including estimating capital costs, evaluating and designing strategies to contend with risk, saving for the proverbial "rainy day," and recognizing the role and value of philanthropy, while challenging some conventional thinking of hospital executives with respect to investment, growth, and planning.

Optimizing investment fund allocation using vehicle routing problem framework

Science.gov (United States)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-07-01

The objective of investment is to maximize total returns or minimize total risks. To determine the optimum order of investment, vehicle routing problem method is used. The method which is widely used in the field of resource distribution shares almost similar characteristics with the problem of investment fund allocation. In this paper we describe and elucidate the concept of using vehicle routing problem framework in optimizing the allocation of investment fund. To better illustrate these similarities, sectorial data from FTSE Bursa Malaysia is used. Results show that different values of utility for risk-averse investors generate the same investment routes.

Investing in the Future World Order: Geoeconomic Strategy and Foreign Direct Investment

Science.gov (United States)

2017-06-01

Geoeconomic Strategies and FDI Regulation Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy. Sun Tzu Sun Tzu’s infamous...106 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112...Investment, 262. 111 Bibliography “About Us | International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds.” Accessed May 21, 2017. http://www.ifswf.org

How to integrate Investment strategies and Finance strategies. Case: Messukeskus

OpenAIRE

Kolodiy, Oleg

2013-01-01

This Bachelor’s thesis examines an integration process of strategic planning, where an investment strategy is defined with financial planning in order to ensure long-term company success. The primary objective of the study is to determine present and emerging instruments available for a case company to finance their investments activities. The thesis consists of a theory section and an empirical section that deals with the commissioning party, a cooperative by form. The theory sectio...

Optimization Research of Generation Investment Based on Linear Programming Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Juan; Ge, Xueqian

Linear programming is an important branch of operational research and it is a mathematical method to assist the people to carry out scientific management. GAMS is an advanced simulation and optimization modeling language and it will combine a large number of complex mathematical programming, such as linear programming LP, nonlinear programming NLP, MIP and other mixed-integer programming with the system simulation. In this paper, based on the linear programming model, the optimized investment decision-making of generation is simulated and analyzed. At last, the optimal installed capacity of power plants and the final total cost are got, which provides the rational decision-making basis for optimized investments.

Towards resiliency with micro-grids: Portfolio optimization and investment under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Gharieh, Kaveh

Energy security and sustained supply of power are critical for community welfare and economic growth. In the face of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions which can result in power grid outage, the value of micro-grids to improve the communities' power reliability and resiliency is becoming more important. Micro-grids capability to operate in islanded mode in stressed-out conditions, dramatically decreases the economic loss of critical infrastructure in power shortage occasions. More wide-spread participation of micro-grids in the wholesale energy market in near future, makes the development of new investment models necessary. However, market and price risks in short term and long term along with risk factors' impacts shall be taken into consideration in development of new investment models. This work proposes a set of models and tools to address different problems associated with micro-grid assets including optimal portfolio selection, investment and financing in both community and a sample critical infrastructure (i.e. wastewater treatment plant) levels. The models account for short-term operational volatilities and long-term market uncertainties. A number of analytical methodologies and financial concepts have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models as follows. (1) Capital budgeting planning and portfolio optimization models with Monte Carlo stochastic scenario generation are applied to derive the optimal investment decision for a portfolio of micro-grid assets considering risk factors and multiple sources of uncertainties. (2) Real Option theory, Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization techniques are applied to obtain optimal modularized investment decisions for hydrogen tri-generation systems in wastewater treatment facilities, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. (3) Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing concept coupled with investment horizon approach are applied to estimate public and private

NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy: 2016 Decadal Update

Science.gov (United States)

Valinia, Azita; Komar, George J.; Tratt, David M.; Lotshaw, William T.; Gaab, Kevin M.

2017-01-01

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) recently updated its investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as it pertains to NASA's Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade. The last ESTO lidar strategy was documented in 2006. The current (2016) report assesses the state-of-the-art in lidar technologies a decade later. Lidar technology maturation in the past decade has been evaluated, and the ESTO investment strategy is updated and laid out in this report according to current NASA Earth science measurement needs and new emerging technologies.

The Investment Strategy of With-Profits Life Insurance Firms

OpenAIRE

Jaafar, Karim Chawki

2008-01-01

Abstract Within the context of an increasingly fragile life insurance industry, this paper conducts a quantitative investigation on the determinants of investment strategy within with profit life assurers in the UK, a dominant segment within the global industry. Examining a range of possible defining characteristics on investment strategy of such firms including size, financial strength (solvency), proprietary/mutual status, open/closed status and the level of guaranteed liabilities, th...

Essays on optimal hedging and investment strategies and on derivative pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.

2004-01-01

This dissertation encompasses four essays on various topics within the field of finance. Chapter 1 presents an overview of the contributions of each essay. Chapter 2, titled Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty, and Irreversible Investments, extends the theory of irreversible investment under

The Application of Dividend Yield Based Investment Strategy in Indonesian Stock Exchange

OpenAIRE

Ekaputra, Adriansyah; Sukarno, Subiakto

2012-01-01

Stock market development in Indonesia is growing rapidly, coupled with the increase of Indonesia's investment rating by investment research and rating companies such as Moody's and S&P, it makes Indonesian stock market look sexy in the eyes of investors from various countries. The investment strategy that simple and applicable is often sought by investors to maximize the investors' portfolio. One investment strategy is evolving but still not widely used in Indonesia is an investment strat...

Inconsistent Investment and Consumption Problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver; Steffensen, Mogens

2015-01-01

In a traditional Black–Scholes market we develop a verification theorem for a general class of investment and consumption problems where the standard dynamic programming principle does not hold. The theorem is an extension of the standard Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the form of a system...... of non-linear differential equations. We derive the optimal investment and consumption strategy for a mean-variance investor without pre-commitment endowed with labor income. In the case of constant risk aversion it turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is independent of wealth...... of future labor income net of consumption. Using the verification theorem we give a detailed analysis of this problem. It turns out that the optimal amount of money to invest in stocks is given by a linear function of wealth plus the financial value of future labor income net of consumption. The optimal...

Design of investment management optimization system for power grid companies under new electricity reform

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Chunhui; Su, Zhixiong; Wang, Xin; Liu, Yang; Qi, Yongwei

2017-03-01

The new normalization of the economic situation and the implementation of a new round of electric power system reform put forward higher requirements to the daily operation of power grid companies. As an important day-to-day operation of power grid companies, investment management is directly related to the promotion of the company's operating efficiency and management level. In this context, the establishment of power grid company investment management optimization system will help to improve the level of investment management and control the company, which is of great significance for power gird companies to adapt to market environment changing as soon as possible and meet the policy environment requirements. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to construct the investment management optimization system of power grid companies, which includes investment management system, investment process control system, investment structure optimization system, and investment project evaluation system and investment management information platform support system.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2015-01-01

In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi Shinzato

Full Text Available In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Empirical analysis of investment strategies for institutional investors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swinkels, L.A.P.

2003-01-01

This thesis consists of three parts that examine several topics concerning institutional asset management. In Part I, investment strategies based on stock returns in previous months known as momentum strategies are investigated in more detail. More specifically, the driving forces behind these

Optimal diversity in investments with recombinant innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeppini-Rossi, P.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

2008-01-01

The notion of dynamic, endogenous diversity and its role in theories of investment and technological innovation is addressed. We develop a formal model of an innovation arising from the combination of two existing modules with the objective to optimize the net benefits of diversity. The model takes

Optimal diversity in investments with recombinant innovation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeppini, P.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

2013-01-01

The notion of dynamic, endogenous diversity and its role in theories of investment and technological innovation is addressed. We develop a formal model of an innovation arising from the combination of two existing modules, with the objective to optimize the net benefits of diversity. The model takes

On the Payoff Valuations of Investment Strategies: A Case of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We also determine among the companies, which of them yield the highest returns at time t. We find that investors may not invest in some of the companies as a result of poor performance that arises from the high risk involve in the investments. Keywords: Payoff valuation; Investment strategy; Stock price; Stochastic.

MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES

OpenAIRE

Johnson, Donald A.; Boehlje, Michael

1983-01-01

This study of the farm firm integrates long run investment and financial decisions, and short-run production and marketing decisions into a single decision framework that includes both time and risk. The results suggest that the use of various strategies for managing market risks allow the entrepreneur to accept mores risk in investing and producing; and that an integrated analysis of production, marketing and investment-financing alternatives is essential to make accurate recommendations abo...

R & D STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN AN ASYMMETRICAL CASE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Minggao XUE; Pu GONG

2006-01-01

This article analyzes R & D investment decisions in an asymmetrical case. The investment decisions share three important characteristics. First, the investment is completely irreversible. Second,there are two kinds of uncertainties over the future returns from the investment and over technology in R & D process, respectively. Third, there is strategic competition in the asymmetrical case. This article presents the optimal investment threshold values and the optimal investment rule of high-efficient firm (leader), and shows that the investment threshold values are reduced by competition of two firms.Finally, the mixed investment strategies for two firms, the probability that each firm separately exercises the option to invest, and the probability that two firms simultaneously exercise the option are given in the paper.

Corporate Investment Dynamic Control System Based on Chaos Cycle Perturbations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanyan Gao

2014-11-01

Full Text Available It exists some issues such as the low predict accuracy and a bad convergence performance to predict business investment with BP neural network algorithm. This paper presents a predictive model of business investment based on improved artificial bee colony and chaos periodic disturbance optimizing BP neural network algorithm. At first, use Boltzmann selection strategy and group behaviour control strategy to optimize the artificial bee colony algorithm, and then use the improved algorithm to transform BP neural network algorithm’s optimized parameters into optimization process of artificial bee colony algorithm to reduce the training error of the original algorithm. Finally, use chaotic optimized Logistic mapping enables BP neural network out of the local minimum point in the training process based on secondary chaotic cycle perturbation strategies. Simulation results show that the proposed predictive model of investment in the enterprise based on improved artificial bee colony and chaos periodic disturbance optimizing BP neural network algorithm shows higher predict accuracy and better convergence than normal BP neural network algorithm.

Structure Optimization of Safety Investment of Petrochemical Port Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiqiang Hou

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Safety investment is an essential guarantee to identify and manage potential security problems in petrochemical port enterprises. The reasonability of safety investment structure determines overall security risks in an enterprise. Based on the definition of risks, combining Cobb-Douglas production function with FTA probability model, and taking Gompertz curve model as the constraint condition, structure optimization model of safety investment is built in order to minimize risks and work out the safety investment structure of petrochemical port enterprises. According to the case study, the calculations indicate that safety investment in corporate management presents a larger growth rate than past years and that unsafe act of human being is the main factor accounting for the greatest probability of occurrence, which is consistent with previous accident investigation results as well as enterprise reality. This testifies that the model is effective and that the results can guide the allocation of safety investment of petrochemical port enterprises scientifically.

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)], E-mail: elin.svensson@chalmers.se; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. A pulp mill example

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden)

2009-03-15

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO{sub 2} emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO{sub 2} emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives. (author)

Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty-A pulp mill example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith

2009-01-01

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO 2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Stroemberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Energy Policy, in press, (doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023)] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO 2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives

CREATION OF OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE OF AN INVESTMENT PROJECT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Višnja Vojvodić Rosenzweig

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The selection of an investment project is formulated as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. This paper presents a case in which the decision-maker uses nine criteria or rather attributes (Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Payback Period, Accounting Rate of Return, Cumulative Cash Flows, Return on Investment, Net Profit Margin, Interest Coverage Ratio and Current Ratio. Individual utility functions are constructed for each attribute separately, as well as a global utility function representing a weighted sum of individual utility functions. For every attribute a finite set of ordered pairs or utility points is determined, taking into account the decision-maker’s assessment. The given points are then approximated by the utility function. Finally, according to the decision-maker’s assessment the optimization problem is solved with the purpose of achieving an optimal performance for each project. By way of negotiation the performances on offer approach the optimal performance of the project with the purpose of realising an agreement between the decision-maker and the investor.

Three Target Sectors for a European Investment Strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janin, Lionel; Douillard, Pierre

2014-11-01

While the president of the European Commission is getting ready to present the 'Juncker package' announced in July 2014, to revive activity in Europe through investment, what are the sectors in which these investments may be concentrated? The overall analysis of investment gaps in the euro zone has confirmed the requirement for a European macro-economic revival effort that involves investment, public or private, undertaken very quickly, even though this diagnosis varies depending on the country. The drivers of a European investment strategy are fiscal, regulatory and financial and are based on the selection of projects for the future. This third 'Note d'analyse' addresses the topic of investment potential in three key sectors: transport, energy and the digital sector, for which the amount of additional investment could reach euro 120 billion per year and thus, over three years, be higher than the forecasts in the Juncker plan. This maximalist amount mainly corresponds to the implementation of an ambitious energy-climate policy. Given current budgetary constraints, carefully selecting the desired investments, for which their social utility must be validated, is imperative: socioeconomic evaluation is the appropriate approach, particularly for taking into account the environmental externalities that now justify significant investments in the ecological transition. (authors)

Revenue Share between Layers and Investment Incentive for ISP in the Internet Market

Science.gov (United States)

Unno, Masaru; Xu, Hua

In this paper, we consider a revenue-sharing and network investment problem between an Internet service provider (ISP) and a content provider (CP) by applying the dynamic agency theory. We formulate the problem as the principal-agent problem where the ISP is the principal and the CP is the agent. The principal-agent problem is transformed to a stochastic optimal control problem in which the objectives of ISP are to find an optimal revenue-sharing strategy and a network investment strategy, and to advise an incentive compatible effort level to the CP. The sufficient conditions for the existence of the optimal revenue-sharing strategy, the optimal investment strategy and the incentive compatible effort to the CP are obtained. A numerical example is solved to show the existence of such strategies. The practical implications of the results obtained in the paper will also be discussed.

State-of-the-art research: optimal investment in market-based electric power systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hope, Einar; Skjeret, Frode

2008-04-15

The purpose of this state-of-the-art research paper is to surveying the literature on investment in market based electric power systems as a background for identifying and discussing some important issues in the optimal design and operation of such systems. A fundamental distinction has to be made between investment in the competitive part of the power system (generation and trading) on the one hand and the natural monopoly part (network infrastructure) on the other. The paper starts with a listing and discussion on market characteristics and properties of electric power and goes on to discussing performance criteria and potential sources of market failure for optimal electric power investment. After the literature survey there is a discussion of conditions under which optimal investment may occur. (author). 78 refs., figs

DEA investment strategy in the Brazilian stock market

OpenAIRE

Newton da Costa, Jr.; Marcus Lima; Edgar Lanzer; Ana Lopes

2008-01-01

This paper presents a multi-period investment strategy using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the Brazilian stock market. Results show that the returns based on the DEA strategy were superior to the returns of a Brazilian stock index in most of the 22 quarters analyzed, presenting a significant Jensen's alpha.

Does investment in leaf defenses drive changes in leaf economic strategy? A focus on whole-plant ontogeny.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, Chase M; Donovan, Lisa A

2015-04-01

Leaf defenses have long been studied in the context of plant growth rate, resource availability, and optimal investment theory. Likewise, one of the central modern paradigms of plant ecophysiology, the leaf economics spectrum (LES), has been extensively studied in the context of these factors across ecological scales ranging from global species data sets to temporal shifts within individuals. Despite strong physiological links between LES strategy and leaf defenses in structure, function, and resource investment, the relationship between these trait classes has not been well explored. This study investigates the relationship between leaf defenses and LES strategy across whole-plant ontogeny in three diverse Helianthus species known to exhibit dramatic ontogenetic shifts in LES strategy, focusing primarily on physical and quantitative chemical defenses. Plants were grown under controlled environmental conditions and sampled for LES and defense traits at four ontogenetic stages. Defenses were found to shift strongly with ontogeny, and to correlate strongly with LES strategy. More advanced ontogenetic stages with more conservative LES strategy leaves had higher tannin activity and toughness in all species, and higher leaf dry matter content in two of three species. Modeling results in two species support the conclusion that changes in defenses drive changes in LES strategy through ontogeny, and in one species that changes in defenses and LES strategy are likely independently driven by ontogeny. Results of this study support the hypothesis that leaf-level allocation to defenses might be an important determinant of leaf economic traits, where high investment in defenses drives a conservative LES strategy.

Optimal Investment Planning of Bulk Energy Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dina Khastieva

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Many countries have the ambition to increase the share of renewable sources in electricity generation. However, continuously varying renewable sources, such as wind power or solar energy, require that the power system can manage the variability and uncertainty of the power generation. One solution to increase flexibility of the system is to use various forms of energy storage, which can provide flexibility to the system at different time ranges and smooth the effect of variability of the renewable generation. In this paper, we investigate three questions connected to investment planning of energy storage systems. First, how the existing flexibility in the system will affect the need for energy storage investments. Second, how presence of energy storage will affect renewable generation expansion and affect electricity prices. Third, who should be responsible for energy storage investments planning. This paper proposes to assess these questions through two different mathematical models. The first model is designed for centralized investment planning and the second model deals with a decentralized investment approach where a single independent profit maximizing utility is responsible for energy storage investments. The models have been applied in various case studies with different generation mixes and flexibility levels. The results show that energy storage system is beneficial for power system operation. However, additional regulation should be considered to achieve optimal investment and allocation of energy storage.

Communication strategies to optimize commitments and investments in iron programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffiths, Marcia

2002-04-01

There is consensus that a communications component is crucial to the success of iron supplementation and fortification programs. However, in many instances, we have not applied what we know about successful advocacy and program communications to iron programs. Communication must play a larger and more central role in iron programs to overcome several common shortcomings and allow the use of new commitments and investments in iron programming to optimum advantage. One shortcoming is that iron program communication has been driven primarily by the supply side of the supply-demand continuum. That is, technical information has been given without thought for what people want to know or do. To overcome this, the communication component, which should be responsive to the consumer perspective, must be considered at program inception, not enlisted late in the program cycle as a remedy when interventions fail to reach their targets. Another shortcoming is the lack of program focus on behavior. Because the "technology" of iron, a supplement, or fortified or specific local food must be combined with appropriate consumer behavior, it is not enough to promote the technology. The appropriate use of technology must be ensured, and this requires precise and strategically crafted communications. A small number of projects from countries as diverse as Indonesia, Egypt, Nicaragua and Peru offer examples of successful communications efforts and strategies for adaptation by other countries.

Optimal Portfolio Strategy under Rolling Economic Maximum Drawdown Constraints

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojian Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of optimal portfolio strategy under the constraints of rolling economic maximum drawdown. A more practical strategy is developed by using rolling Sharpe ratio in computing the allocation proportion in contrast to existing models. Besides, another novel strategy named “REDP strategy” is further proposed, which replaces the rolling economic drawdown of the portfolio with the rolling economic drawdown of the risky asset. The simulation tests prove that REDP strategy can ensure the portfolio to satisfy the drawdown constraint and outperforms other strategies significantly. An empirical comparison research on the performances of different strategies is carried out by using the 23-year monthly data of SPTR, DJUBS, and 3-month T-bill. The investment cases of single risky asset and two risky assets are both studied in this paper. Empirical results indicate that the REDP strategy successfully controls the maximum drawdown within the given limit and performs best in both return and risk.

Optimal Consumption and Investment under Time-Varying Relative Risk Aversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Mogens

2011-01-01

We consider the continuous time consumption-investment problem originally formalized and solved by Merton in case of constant relative risk aversion. We present a complete solution for the case where relative risk aversion with respect to consumption varies with time, having in mind an investor...... with age-dependent risk aversion. This provides a new motivation for life-cycle investment rules. We study the optimal consumption and investment rules, in particular in the case where the relative risk aversion with respect to consumption is increasing with age....

An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

2010-01-01

This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

Optimal investment and consumption when allowing terminal debt

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, A.; Vellekoop, M.

2017-01-01

We analyze a dynamic optimization problem which involves the consumption and investment of an investor with constant relative risk aversion for consumption but with a risk aversion for final wealth which does not necessarily imply that terminal wealth must always be positive. We require risk

A Diversified Investment Strategy Using Autonomous Agents

Science.gov (United States)

Barbosa, Rui Pedro; Belo, Orlando

In a previously published article, we presented an architecture for implementing agents with the ability to trade autonomously in the Forex market. At the core of this architecture is an ensemble of classification and regression models that is used to predict the direction of the price of a currency pair. In this paper, we will describe a diversified investment strategy consisting of five agents which were implemented using that architecture. By simulating trades with 18 months of out-of-sample data, we will demonstrate that data mining models can produce profitable predictions, and that the trading risk can be diminished through investment diversification.

Optimizing an Investment Solution in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk as a Multicriterial Task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology for optimizing investment decisions in conditions of uncertainty and risk. The subject area of the study relates, first of all, to real investment. The problem of modeling an optimal investment solution is considered to be a multicriterial task. Also, the constructive part of the publication is based on the position that the multicriteriality of objectives of investment projecting is the result, first, of the complex nature of the category of economic attractiveness (efficiency of real investment, and secondly, of the need to take into account the risk factor, which is a vector measure, in the preparation of an investment solution. An attempt has been made to develop an instrumentarium to optimize investment decisions in a situation of uncertainty and the risk it engenders, based on the use of roll-up of the local criteria. As a result of its implementation, a model has been proposed, which has the advantage that it takes into account, to a greater extent than is the case for standardized roll-up options, the contensive and formal features of the local (detailed criteria.

Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murto, Pauli; Nese, Gjermund

2002-05-01

We consider energy investment, when a choice has to be made between fossil fuel and biomass fired production technologies. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the effect of the different degrees of input price uncertainty on the choice of technology and the timing of the investment. It is shown that when the choice of technology is irreversible, it may be optimal to postpone the investment even if it would otherwise be optimal to invest in one or both of the plant types. We provide a numerical example based on cost, estimates of two different power plant types. (author)

Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murto, Pauli; Nese, Gjermund

2002-01-01

We consider energy investment, when a choice has to be made between fossil fuel and biomass fired production technologies. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the effect of the different degrees of input price uncertainty on the choice of technology and the timing of the investment. It is shown that when the choice of technology is irreversible, it may be optimal to postpone the investment even if it would otherwise be optimal to invest in one or both of the plant types. We provide a numerical example based on cost, estimates of two different power plant types. (author)

Web malware spread modelling and optimal control strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Wanping; Zhong, Shouming

2017-02-01

The popularity of the Web improves the growth of web threats. Formulating mathematical models for accurate prediction of malicious propagation over networks is of great importance. The aim of this paper is to understand the propagation mechanisms of web malware and the impact of human intervention on the spread of malicious hyperlinks. Considering the characteristics of web malware, a new differential epidemic model which extends the traditional SIR model by adding another delitescent compartment is proposed to address the spreading behavior of malicious links over networks. The spreading threshold of the model system is calculated, and the dynamics of the model is theoretically analyzed. Moreover, the optimal control theory is employed to study malware immunization strategies, aiming to keep the total economic loss of security investment and infection loss as low as possible. The existence and uniqueness of the results concerning the optimality system are confirmed. Finally, numerical simulations show that the spread of malware links can be controlled effectively with proper control strategy of specific parameter choice.

Transaction fees and optimal rebalancing in the growth-optimal portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2011-05-01

The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portfolio rebalancing. The optimal period is found analytically in the case of lognormal returns. This result is consequently generalized and numerically verified for broad return distributions and returns generated by a GARCH process. Finally we study the case when investment is rebalanced only partially and show that this strategy can improve the investment long-term growth rate more than optimization of the rebalancing period.

PORTFOLIO INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: A RISK-MANAGEMENT TOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elma Agic-Sabeta

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Unsystemic risks in financial markets may be reduced through diversification. Systemic risks relate to the overall economy, cannot be influenced by a single company, and require special attention. Empirical research on return distributions in the long-term shows that investing under the assumption of normal distribution of returns may be dangerous. The main objectives of this article are to describe portfolio insurance strategies and investigate their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, their use in financial markets in both developed and emerging markets is explored, with special consideration placed on southeast European markets. Theoretical models are reviewed, including recent research articles in the field. The results are analyzed, summarized, and presented in the form of tables and graphs. The main finding of the article is identification of strategies that could be used in southeast Europe. It concludes that implementation of portfolio insurance strategies by asset managers may reduce financial risks in southeast European markets if implementation is done professionally and, simultaneously, it is monitored during the entire investment horizon.

Role of Tax Instruments in Investment and Innovation Strategy of Development of Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Demchyshak Nazar B.

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The article speaks about problems of formation of the investment and innovation potential in Ukraine. It identifies priority of development and introduction of the investment and innovation strategy for the national economy. It studies the role of state stimulation of the investment and innovation activity using direct and indirect methods. It considers foreign experience of tax stimulation of innovation activity. It analyses application of different tax preferences by different foreign states. It shows positive and negative sides of preferential taxation under conditions of financial instability of Ukrainian economy. In order to identify the level of investment activity the article analyses dynamics of change of the investment attractiveness index and shows problem aspects of attraction of foreign investments into the national economy. It identifies priorities of formation of efficient investment and innovation strategy of development of economy on the basis of a common system approach.

Applying risk management strategies to strengthen an IDS's investment policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, R P

1998-11-01

The increased financial risk that not-for-profit integrated delivery systems have assumed to function under managed care has required them to become increasingly reliant on income and gains from their investment portfolios. This reliance underscores the need for these organizations to take steps to effectively manage their investment risk. Not-for-profit IDSs should establish a systematic approach to investment risk management that is based on maintaining a sound fiduciary infrastructure and having a clear understanding of risk exposures, the most important of which are policy and market risk. Applying reasonable and common-sense risk management strategies to investment policy will enhance an IDS's overall financial and competitive strength.

Natural Gas: Investment Strategies In An Uncertain World

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soliman, M.; Darwish, M.

2004-01-01

Natural Gas investment projects in developing countries (of which Egypt is a typical example) are one of the key industries in the evolving and continually changing energy market. It seems clear that the natural gas industry today is no longer limited by national boundaries, and that countries as well as organizations need to have an adaptive investment strategy and a global perspective if they are to survive and prosper in this . uncertain world. Many strategies will succeed or fail on the basis of their ability to deal with this dynamic environment. Strategy decisions are by their nature complex, and involve many imponderables. The selection of a course of action depends on the availability and interpretation of information, analysis, intuition, emotion, political awareness and many other factors. Different individuals and groups emphasize different aspects and, in the sense that a strategy decision is an advance into tbe unknown, there is no correct course of action; all that can be done is to interpret the current situation, form expectations about the future, and act according to personal views on risk and the likely course of events. It is usually possible to identify courses of action which are unlikely to be successful, and in that sense the strategy process can have real benefits in helping to avoid disastrous courses of action

Long-term damage management strategies for optimizing steam generator performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egan, G.R.; Besuner, P.M.; Fox, J.H.; Merrick, E.A.

1991-01-01

Minimizing long-term impact of steam generator operating, maintenance, outage, and replacement costs is the goal of all pressurized water reactor utilities. Recent research results have led to deterministic controls that may be implemented to optimize steam generator performance and to minimize damage accumulation. The real dilemma that utilities encounter is the decision process that needs to be made in the face of uncertain data. Some of these decisions involve the frequency and extent of steam generator eddy current tube inspections; the definition of operating conditions to minimize the rate of corrosion reactions (T (hot) , T (cold) ; and the imposition of strict water quality management guidelines. With finite resources, how can a utility decide which damage management strategy provides the most return for its investment? Aptech Engineering Services, Inc. (APTECH) developed a damage management strategy that starts from a deterministic analysis of a current problem- primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC). The strategy involves a probabilistic treatment that results in long-term performance optimization. By optimization, we refer to minimizing the total cost of operating the steam generator. This total includes the present value costs of operations, maintenance, outages, and replacements. An example of the application of this methodology is presented. (author)

Behavioral investment strategy matters: a statistical arbitrage approach

OpenAIRE

Sun, David; Tsai, Shih-Chuan; Wang, Wei

2011-01-01

In this study, we employ a statistical arbitrage approach to demonstrate that momentum investment strategy tend to work better in periods longer than six months, a result different from findings in past literature. Compared with standard parametric tests, the statistical arbitrage method produces more clearly that momentum strategies work only in longer formation and holding periods. Also they yield positive significant returns in an up market, but negative yet insignificant returns in a down...

Concepts of investment risks and strategies in electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Joode, J.; Boots, M.G.

2005-06-01

This report deals with the specific investment risks in electricity generation and discusses the problems associated with energy investments in general and focus on the additional or changing risks resulting from electricity market liberalisation. The focus is on (1) risks under the control of the electricity company, and on (2) market risks, such as the risk of price changes. Ultimately, some of the approaches and strategies that enable electricity producers to counter or mitigate these risks are discussed

Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deng, Qianli; Jiang, Xianglin; Zhang, Limao; Cui, Qingbin

2015-01-01

Varied initial energy efficiency investments would result in different annual energy savings achievements. In order to balance the savings revenue and the potential capital loss through EPC (Energy Performance Contracting), a cost-effective investment decision is needed when selecting energy efficiency technologies. In this research, an approach is developed for the ESCO (Energy Service Company) to evaluate the potential energy savings profit, and thus make the optimal investment decisions. The energy savings revenue under uncertainties, which are derived from energy efficiency performance variation and energy price fluctuation, are first modeled as stochastic processes. Then, the derived energy savings profit is shared by the owner and the ESCO according to the contract specification. A simulation-based model is thus built to maximize the owner's profit, and at the same time, satisfy the ESCO's expected rate of return. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, the University of Maryland campus case is also presented. The proposed method could not only help the ESCO determine the optimal energy efficiency investments, but also assist the owner's decision in the bidding selection. - Highlights: • An optimization model is built for determining energy efficiency investment for ESCO. • Evolution of the energy savings revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. • Simulation is adopted to calculate investment balancing the owner and the ESCO's profit. • A campus case is presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed approach

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Fei; Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian

2017-01-01

The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Ren

Full Text Available The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

Sovereign wealth funds: Investment objectives and asset allocation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniil Wagner

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs have steadily increased their importance in the global financial system in the last decade and especially during the financial crisis period. Although the objectives and investment strategies of SWFs are quite diverse, I propose to sort them into three main groups, depending on their sponsor countries’ endowment with resources and investment objectives. I present case studies and empirical analyses that reflect SWF investment activities and try to elaborate on the special role of each SWF group. Special emphasis is given to the recent financial crisis, where SWFs also acted as bailout investors by injecting substantial capital into global financial institutions, filling a financing gap that other institutional investors could not close

A strategy for investment in space resource utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Mendell, Wendell W.

1992-01-01

Considerations governing a strategy for investment in the utilization of space resources are discussed. It is suggested on the basis of an examination of current trends in terms of historical processes which operate on new frontiers that the limited markets and unfamiliar technologies associated with space commercialization today may change dramatically in 20 years when lunar resources are accessible. It is argued that the uncertainty of such projections discourages investment at a useful scale unless a strategy for technology development can be implemented which provides tangible and marketable benefits in the intermediate term. At present, technologies can be identified which will be required (and therefore valuable) at the time of lunar settlement, and whose development can be planned to yield marketable intermediate products on earth. It is concluded that the formation of precompetitive collaborative research consortia in the industrial sector could reduce technical and economic risk in the early stages and could promote a favorable political environment for the future growth of space activities.

Evaluation on Optimal Scale of Rural Fixed-asset Investment-Based on Microcosmic Perspective of Farmers’ Income Increase

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jinqian; DENG; Kangkang; SHAN; Yan; ZHANG

2014-01-01

The rural fundamental and productive fixed-asset investment not only makes active influence on the changes of farmers’ operational,wages and property income,but it also has an optimal scale range for farmers’ income increase. From the perspective of farmers’ income increase,this article evaluates the optimal scale of rural fixed-asset investment by setting up model with statistic data,and the results show that the optimal scale of per capita rural fixed-asset investment is 76. 35% of per capita net income of rural residents,which has been reached in China in 2009. Therefore,compared with the adding of rural fixed-asset investment,a better income increase effect can be achieved through the adjustment of rural fixed-asset investment structure.

Assessing the economic value of co-optimized grid-scale energy storage investments in supporting high renewable portfolio standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Go, Roderick S.; Munoz, Francisco D.; Watson, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We present a MILP to co-optimize generation, transmission, and storage investments. • We find significant value in co-optimized storage via investment deferrals. • Operational savings from bulk services are small relative to investment deferrals. • Co-optimized energy storage significantly reduces prices associated with RPS. - Abstract: Worldwide, environmental regulations such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) are being broadly adopted to promote renewable energy investments. With corresponding increases in renewable energy deployments, there is growing interest in grid-scale energy storage systems (ESS) to provide the flexibility needed to efficiently deliver renewable power to consumers. Our contribution in this paper is to introduce a unified generation, transmission, and bulk ESS expansion planning model subject to an RPS constraint, formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program (MILP) optimization model, which we then use to study the impact of co-optimization and evaluate the economic interaction between investments in these three asset classes in achieving high renewable penetrations. We present numerical case studies using the 24-bus IEEE RTS-96 test system considering wind and solar as available renewable energy resources, and demonstrate that up to $180 million/yr in total cost savings can result from the co-optimization of all three assets, relative to a situation in which no ESS investment options are available. Surprisingly, we find that co-optimized bulk ESS investments provide significant economic value through investment deferrals in transmission and generation capacity, but very little savings in operational cost. Finally, we observe that planning transmission and generation infrastructure first and later optimizing ESS investments—as is common in industry—captures at most 1.7% ($3 million/yr) of the savings that result from co-optimizing all assets simultaneously.

Strategy of Slovak Republic's government to use higher education as an investment into human capital

OpenAIRE

Smereková, Erika

2016-01-01

Bc. Erika Smereková Strategy of Slovak Republic's Government to use higher education as an investment in human capital Abstract The Master thesis on the topic "Strategy of Slovak Republic's government to use higher education as an investment in human capital" presents results to the following research question: To what extent is it a part of strategy of Slovak Republic's educational policy to use higher education as an investment in human capital? The thesis specifically focuses on the idea o...

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmoud Shakouri

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in Supplementary materials. The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems. Keywords: Community solar, Photovoltaic system, Portfolio theory, Energy optimization, Electricity volatility

Carry trade as a speculative investment strategy in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bungin Sanja

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is analyses causes and the consequences of a speculative investment carry trade strategy in the exchange market in Serbia. The presence of such type of investor is related to high yields of risk free securities denominated in dinars, as well as the perception of future movements of dinar exchange rate related to currency that serves as source of investment. The consequences of carry trade may significantly influence exchange rate movements when monetary policy has limited facilities to combat negative and sudden shocks.

A multi-objective decision framework for lifecycle investment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmermans, S.H.J.T.; Schumacher, J.M.; Ponds, E.H.M.

2017-01-01

In this paper we propose a multi-objective decision framework for lifecycle investment choice. Instead of optimizing individual strategies with respect to a single-valued objective, we suggest evaluation of classes of strategies in terms of the quality of the tradeoffs that they provide. The

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Pol, van der, T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

Strategy Diversity Stabilizes Mutualism through Investment Cycles, Phase Polymorphism, and Spatial Bubbles

Science.gov (United States)

Boza, Gergely; Kun, Ádám; Scheuring, István; Dieckmann, Ulf

2012-01-01

There is continuing interest in understanding factors that facilitate the evolution and stability of cooperation within and between species. Such interactions will often involve plasticity in investment behavior, in response to the interacting partner's investments. Our aim here is to investigate the evolution and stability of reciprocal investment behavior in interspecific interactions, a key phenomenon strongly supported by experimental observations. In particular, we present a comprehensive analysis of a continuous reciprocal investment game between mutualists, both in well-mixed and spatially structured populations, and we demonstrate a series of novel mechanisms for maintaining interspecific mutualism. We demonstrate that mutualistic partners invariably follow investment cycles, during which mutualism first increases, before both partners eventually reduce their investments to zero, so that these cycles always conclude with full defection. We show that the key mechanism for stabilizing mutualism is phase polymorphism along the investment cycle. Although mutualistic partners perpetually change their strategies, the community-level distribution of investment levels becomes stationary. In spatially structured populations, the maintenance of polymorphism is further facilitated by dynamic mosaic structures, in which mutualistic partners form expanding and collapsing spatial bubbles or clusters. Additionally, we reveal strategy-diversity thresholds, both for well-mixed and spatially structured mutualistic communities, and discuss factors for meeting these thresholds, and thus maintaining mutualism. Our results demonstrate that interspecific mutualism, when considered as plastic investment behavior, can be unstable, and, in agreement with empirical observations, may involve a polymorphism of investment levels, varying both in space and in time. Identifying the mechanisms maintaining such polymorphism, and hence mutualism in natural communities, provides a significant

The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

Science.gov (United States)

Scriven, M. C.

1979-01-01

Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

Volatility measurement with directional change in Chinese stock market: Statistical property and investment strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Junjun; Xiong, Xiong; He, Feng; Zhang, Wei

2017-04-01

The stock price fluctuation is studied in this paper with intrinsic time perspective. The event, directional change (DC) or overshoot, are considered as time scale of price time series. With this directional change law, its corresponding statistical properties and parameter estimation is tested in Chinese stock market. Furthermore, a directional change trading strategy is proposed for invest in the market portfolio in Chinese stock market, and both in-sample and out-of-sample performance are compared among the different method of model parameter estimation. We conclude that DC method can capture important fluctuations in Chinese stock market and gain profit due to the statistical property that average upturn overshoot size is bigger than average downturn directional change size. The optimal parameter of DC method is not fixed and we obtained 1.8% annual excess return with this DC-based trading strategy.

Supply Inventory Management: Defense Logistics Agency Aviation Investment Strategy Program

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2002-01-01

The audit objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of the DLA investment strategy to improve supply support to aviation weapon systems by increasing the stockage levels of consumable repair parts...

Optimization of investment portfolio weight of stocks affected by market index

Science.gov (United States)

Azizah, E.; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Stock price assessment, selection of optimum combination, and measure the risk of a portfolio investment is one important issue for investors. In this paper single index model used for the assessment of the stock price, and formulation optimization model developed using Lagrange multiplier technique to determine the proportion of assets to be invested. The level of risk is estimated by using variance. These models are used to analyse the stock price data Lippo Bank and Bumi Putera.

Investment strategy due to the minimization of portfolio noise level by observations of coarse-grained entropy

Science.gov (United States)

Urbanowicz, Krzysztof; Hołyst, Janusz A.

2004-12-01

Using a recently developed method of noise level estimation that makes use of properties of the coarse-grained entropy, we have analyzed the noise level for the Dow Jones index and a few stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. We have found that the noise level ranges from 40% to 80% of the signal variance. The condition of a minimal noise level has been applied to construct optimal portfolios from selected shares. We show that the implementation of a corresponding threshold investment strategy leads to positive returns for historical data.

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

Research on Chinese Energy Investment in Turkey under the Silk Road Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yiling

2017-11-01

In the context of China’s peaceful rise, the Silk Road strategy will promote China participation in Global trade and investment. The Turkish government has announced a new incentive plan to attract investor. Therefore, Chinese energy investment in Turkey is facing some precious opportunities. However, cultural differences, Turkey’s domestic economic problems, political turmoil and other multiple factors bring severe challenges to China’s energy investment in Turkey, which requires a constructive response.

Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicle driving schedules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardoso, G.; Stadler, M.; Bozchalui, M.C.; Sharma, R.; Marnay, C.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Ferrão, P.

2014-01-01

The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem. - Highlights: • This paper introduces a new EV aggregator model in the DER-CAM model and expands it with a stochastic formulation. • The model is used to analyze the impact of EVs in DER investment decisions in a large office building. • The uncertainty in EV driving patterns is considered through scenarios based on data from a daily commute driving survey. • Results indicate that EVs have a significant impact in optimal DER decisions, particularly when looking at short payback periods. • Furthermore, results indicate that uncertainty in EV driving schedules has little impact on DER investment decisions

Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Emerging Economies and National Development Strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gammeltoft, Peter; Kokko, Ari

2013-01-01

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an integral part of national development strategy throughout the developing world. However, while traditionally strategies have focused on the role of inward flows only, today, outward FDI is used on a larger scale and more deliberately to access markets...

Forecasting of Power Grid Investment in China Based on Support Vector Machine Optimized by Differential Evolution Algorithm and Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuyu Dai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the construction of China’s power grid has experienced rapid development, and its scale has leaped into the first place in the world. Accurate and effective prediction of power grid investment can not only help pool funds and rationally arrange investment in power grid construction, but also reduce capital costs and economic risks, which plays a crucial role in promoting power grid investment planning and construction process. In order to forecast the power grid investment of China accurately, firstly on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of power grid investment, the influencing factors system for China’s power grid investment forecasting is constructed in this article. The method of grey relational analysis is used for screening the main influencing factors as the prediction model input. Then, a novel power grid investment prediction model based on DE-GWO-SVM (support vector machine optimized by differential evolution and grey wolf optimization algorithm is proposed. Next, two cases are taken for empirical analysis to prove that the DE-GWO-SVM model has strong generalization capacity and has achieved a good prediction effect for power grid investment forecasting in China. Finally, the DE-GWO-SVM model is adopted to forecast power grid investment in China from 2018 to 2022.

Optimal Operations and Resilient Investments in Steam Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bungener, Stéphane L., E-mail: stephane.bungener@a3.epfl.ch [Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland); Van Eetvelde, Greet [Environmental and Spatial Management, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Ghent University, Ghent (Belgium); Maréchal, François [Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland)

2016-01-20

Steam is a key energy vector for industrial sites, most commonly used for process heating and cooling, cogeneration of heat and mechanical power as a motive fluid or for stripping. Steam networks are used to carry steam from producers to consumers and between pressure levels through letdowns and steam turbines. The steam producers (boilers, heat and power cogeneration units, heat exchangers, chemical reactors) should be sized to supply the consumers at nominal operating conditions as well as peak demand. First, this paper proposes an Mixed Integer Linear Programing formulation to optimize the operations of steam networks in normal operating conditions and exceptional demand (when operating reserves fall to zero), through the introduction of load shedding. Optimization of investments based on operational and investment costs are included in the formulation. Though rare, boiler failures can have a heavy impact on steam network operations and costs, leading to undercapacity and unit shutdowns. A method is therefore proposed to simulate steam network operations when facing boiler failures. Key performance indicators are introduced to quantify the network’s resilience. The proposed methods are applied and demonstrated in an industrial case study using industrial data. The results indicate the importance of oversizing key steam producing equipments and the value of industrial symbiosis to increase industrial site resilience.

Optimal Operations and Resilient Investments in Steam Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bungener, Stéphane L.; Van Eetvelde, Greet; Maréchal, François

2016-01-01

Steam is a key energy vector for industrial sites, most commonly used for process heating and cooling, cogeneration of heat and mechanical power as a motive fluid or for stripping. Steam networks are used to carry steam from producers to consumers and between pressure levels through letdowns and steam turbines. The steam producers (boilers, heat and power cogeneration units, heat exchangers, chemical reactors) should be sized to supply the consumers at nominal operating conditions as well as peak demand. First, this paper proposes an Mixed Integer Linear Programing formulation to optimize the operations of steam networks in normal operating conditions and exceptional demand (when operating reserves fall to zero), through the introduction of load shedding. Optimization of investments based on operational and investment costs are included in the formulation. Though rare, boiler failures can have a heavy impact on steam network operations and costs, leading to undercapacity and unit shutdowns. A method is therefore proposed to simulate steam network operations when facing boiler failures. Key performance indicators are introduced to quantify the network’s resilience. The proposed methods are applied and demonstrated in an industrial case study using industrial data. The results indicate the importance of oversizing key steam producing equipments and the value of industrial symbiosis to increase industrial site resilience.

Network models for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization of investment projects control with several acceptable technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Shorikov, A. F.; Butsenko, E. V.

2017-10-01

This paper discusses the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. On the basis of network modeling proposed a new economic and mathematical model and a method for solving the problem of multicriterial adaptive optimization the control of investment projects in the presence of several technologies. Network economic and mathematical modeling allows you to determine the optimal time and calendar schedule for the implementation of the investment project and serves as an instrument to increase the economic potential and competitiveness of the enterprise. On a meaningful practical example, the processes of forming network models are shown, including the definition of the sequence of actions of a particular investment projecting process, the network-based work schedules are constructed. The calculation of the parameters of network models is carried out. Optimal (critical) paths have been formed and the optimal time for implementing the chosen technologies of the investment project has been calculated. It also shows the selection of the optimal technology from a set of possible technologies for project implementation, taking into account the time and cost of the work. The proposed model and method for solving the problem of managing investment projects can serve as a basis for the development, creation and application of appropriate computer information systems to support the adoption of managerial decisions by business people.

Investment Strategy of Emission-Reduction Technology in a Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gao Xiang Lou

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gas emissions have serious impacts on the natural environment. Therefore, the restrictions imposed on carbon emission force enterprises to take carbon emission into consideration when making production decisions. In this paper, in the context of allowing emission trading and investment of emission reduction technology, models were presented for a two-stage supply chain to analyze the optimal investment and pricing decisions. The results indicate that manufacturer’s endurance capacity of reduction difficulty is higher in the cooperation model than in the Stackelberg game model, and that perfect coordination of supply chains can be realized by a revenue sharing contract. From the perspective of a consumer, low-carbon products mean higher price, so that subsidies or tax exemptions should be provided to keep low prices. Meanwhile, the government can promote investment in emission-reduction technologies and achieve its emission reduction targets by controlling emission trading price, strengthening emission reduction publicity and providing technology investment subsidies.

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo

2016-03-01

The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV) systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in . The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems.

An Analysis of a Free Cashflow Portfolio Investment Strategy ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Many investment strategies are based on information derived from, or expectations related to, information in financial statements. Generally Accepted Accounting Practice (GAAP) are interpreted differently in various countries and this reduces the reliability of financial statements for international investors. This paper uses a ...

Optimal investment and scheduling of distributed energy resources with uncertainty in electric vehicles driving schedules

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Goncalo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Stadler, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Center for Energy and Innovation Technologies (Austria); Bozchalui, Mohammed C. [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Sharma, Ratnesh [NEC Laboratories American Inc., Irving, TX (United States); Marnay, Chris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbosa-Povoa, Ana [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal); Ferrao, Paulo [Technical Univ. of Lisbon (Portugal)

2013-12-06

The large scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will introduce technical challenges to the distribution grid, but also carries the potential for vehicle-to-grid services. Namely, if available in large enough numbers, EVs can be used as a distributed energy resource (DER) and their presence can influence optimal DER investment and scheduling decisions in microgrids. In this work, a novel EV fleet aggregator model is introduced in a stochastic formulation of DER-CAM [1], an optimization tool used to address DER investment and scheduling problems. This is used to assess the impact of EV interconnections on optimal DER solutions considering uncertainty in EV driving schedules. Optimization results indicate that EVs can have a significant impact on DER investments, particularly if considering short payback periods. Furthermore, results suggest that uncertainty in driving schedules carries little significance to total energy costs, which is corroborated by results obtained using the stochastic formulation of the problem.

Scaling up Evidence-Based Practices: Strategies from Investing in Innovation (i3)

Science.gov (United States)

DeWire, Tom; McKithen, Clarissa; Carey, Rebecca

2017-01-01

What can the Investing in Innovation (i3) grantees tell us about scaling innovative educational practices? The newly released white paper "Scaling Up Evidence-Based Practices: Strategies from Investing in Innovation (i3)" captures the experiences of nine grantees whose projects collectively have reached over 1.2 million students across…

Research on the robust optimization of the enterprise's decision on the investment to the collaborative innovation: Under the risk constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Qing; Fang, Gang; Wang, Dong-peng; Yang, Wei

2016-01-01

Abstracts: The robust optimization model is applied to analyze the enterprise's decision of the investment portfolio for the collaborative innovation under the risk constraints. Through the mathematical model deduction and the simulation analysis, the research result shows that the enterprise's investment to the collaborative innovation has relatively obvious robust effect. As for the collaborative innovation, the return from the investment coexists with the risk of it. Under the risk constraints, the robust optimization method could solve the minimum risk as well as the proportion of each investment scheme in the portfolio on the condition of different target returns from the investment. On the basis of the result, the enterprise could balance between the investment return and risk and make optimal decision on the investment scheme.

Credit Rating via Dynamic Slack-Based Measure And It´s Optimal Investment Strategy

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A. Delavarkhalafi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we check the credit rating of firms applied for a loan. In this regard we introduce a model, named Dynamic Slack-Based Measure (DSBM for measuring credit rating of applicant companies. Selection of financial ratios that represent the financial state of a company -in the best possible way- is one of the most challenging parts of any credit rating analysis. At first, ranking needs to identify the appropriate variables. Therefore we introduce five financial variables to provide a ranking. As noted above, we assess the performance of these firms. Then we introduce the dynamic model of SBM and theorems, also we discuss the overall structure of DSBM. Then we will present the implementation and the simulation model. After that, we propose a stochastic controlled dynamic system model to express the optimal strategy. Banks expect companies selected with DSBM model, act in accordance with this strategy. This stochastic dynamic system is originated from the balance sheets of firms applying for a loan. Finally we evaluate the performance of the system and strategy problem.

Valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergmann, Ariel; Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert

2006-01-01

Increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries' strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits, which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made. This paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in Scotland, a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy. The external effects we consider are those on landscape quality, wildlife and air quality. We also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices. The methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique. Renewable technologies considered include hydro, on-shore and off-shore wind power and biomass. Welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated. We also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities, and between high- and low-income households. (author)

Valuing the attributes of renewable energy investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergmann, Ariel [Economics Department, University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT (United Kingdom); Hanley, Nick; Wright, Robert [Economics Department, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, Scotland (United Kingdom)

2006-06-15

Increasing the proportion of power derived from renewable energy sources is becoming an increasingly important part of many countries' strategies to achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy investments can often have external costs and benefits, which need to be taken into account if socially optimal investments are to be made. This paper attempts to estimate the magnitude of these external costs and benefits for the case of renewable technologies in Scotland, a country which has set particularly ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy. The external effects we consider are those on landscape quality, wildlife and air quality. We also consider the welfare implications of different investment strategies for employment and electricity prices. The methodology used to do this is the choice experiment technique. Renewable technologies considered include hydro, on-shore and off-shore wind power and biomass. Welfare changes for different combinations of impacts associated with different investment strategies are estimated. We also test for differences in preferences towards these impacts between urban and rural communities, and between high- and low-income households. (author)

The Bio-Inspired Optimization of Trading Strategies and Its Impact on the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Sustainable Development Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafał Dreżewski

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the evolutionary algorithm for the optimization of Forex market trading strategies is proposed. The introduction to issues related to the financial markets and the evolutionary algorithms precedes the main part of the paper, in which the proposed trading system is presented. The system uses the evolutionary algorithm for optimization of a parameterized greedy strategy, which is then used as an investment strategy on the Forex market. In the proposed system, a model of the Forex market was developed, including all elements that are necessary for simulating realistic trading processes. The proposed evolutionary algorithm contains several novel mechanisms that were introduced to optimize the greedy strategy. The most important of the proposed techniques are the mechanisms for maintaining the population diversity, a mechanism for protecting the best individuals in the population, the mechanisms preventing the excessive growth of the population, the mechanisms of the initialization of the population after moving the time window and a mechanism of choosing the best strategies used for trading. The experiments, conducted with the use of real-world Forex market data, were aimed at testing the quality of the results obtained using the proposed algorithm and comparing them with the results obtained by the buy-and-hold strategy. By comparing our results with the results of the buy-and-hold strategy, we attempted to verify the validity of the efficient market hypothesis. The credibility of the hypothesis would have more general implications for many different areas of our lives, including future sustainable development policies.

Optimal capital accumulation and the allocation of investment between traded and nontraded sectors in oil-producing countries.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

1985-01-01

A paper on the optimal capital accumulation and allocation of investment in oil exporting countries. Investigates the basis of consumption and investment levels on optimizing forward-looking behavior, the role of physical capital in the production, the impact of the decline in oil revenues on the

Comparison of different reliability improving investment strategies of Finnish medium-voltage distribution systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laagland, H.

2012-07-01

The electricity distribution sector in Finland is highly regulated and the return on investments in distribution networks is low. Low profits don't make the electricity distribution sector attractive to outside investors. During the second regulatory period of 2008-2011 incentives are included into the Finnish regulation model which allows higher profits for the network owners for right allocated network investments leading to lower operation and interruption costs. The goal of the thesis is to find cost-effective medium-voltage distribution system investment strategies for the Finnish power distribution companies with respect to the incentives of the second regulatory period. In this work the sectionalisation concept is further developed by deriving equations for a homogeneous electricity distribution system for the economical and reliability indices as a function of the number of sectionalisation zones. The cost-effective medium-voltage distribution system investment strategies are found by studying the technical and economic interaction of feeder automation on different network structures. Ten feeder automation schemes have been applied to six urban/rural area generic feeders and two real rural area feeders of a distribution company in western Finland. The analytical approach includes modelling of the feeders and feeder functions and calculation of the economical and reliability indices. The following investment areas are included: different electricity distribution systems, new substation, new switching station, central earth-fault current compensation, cabling and feeder automation. The value of the results of this work is that they reveal the influence that feeder automation has on the reliability and economy of different distribution structures. This created transparency enables a national and/or distribution company network investment strategy to optimise the economic benefits of investments. (orig.)

Research on energy strategy and Chinese energy investment in the middle east

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yiling

2017-08-01

The Middle East is a key node of “One Belt and One Road strategy”. Energy investment is an important part of Chinese investment in the Middle East. The political turmoil in the Middle East has brought the political risks to Chinese investors. In the future, with the globalization of Chinese resource distribution and the expansion of Chinese outward investment, it is significant for China to ensure its energy security. Based on the analysis of the situation of Chinese energy strategy in the Middle East, this paper tries to put forward some suggestion about Chinese energy investment in the Middle East in order to protect Chinese energy security effectively.

Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

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Mingming Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

Strategy of investment in electricity sources--Market value of a power plant and the electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

Bartnik, R.; Hnydiuk-Stefan, A.; Buryn, Z.

2017-11-01

This paper reports the results of the investment strategy analysis in different electricity sources. New methodology and theory of calculating the market value of the power plant and value of the electricity market supplied by it are presented. The financial gain forms the most important criteria in the assessment of an investment by an investor. An investment strategy has to involve a careful analysis of each considered project in order that the right decision and selection will be made while various components of the projects will be considered. The latter primarily includes the aspects of risk and uncertainty. Profitability of an investment in the electricity sources (as well as others) is offered by the measures applicable for the assessment of the economic effectiveness of an investment based on calculations e.g. power plant market value and the value of the electricity that is supplied by a power plant. The values of such measures decide on an investment strategy in the energy sources. This paper contains analysis of exemplary calculations results of power plant market value and the electricity market value supplied by it.

Pedagogical Strategies for Incorporating Behavioral Finance Concepts in Investment Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Michael; Mullins, Terry; Thornton, Barry

2007-01-01

The traditional approach to teaching a course in investments is predicated upon the efficient market hypothesis, modern portfolio theory, and the assumption that decision-makers are rational, wealth optimizing entities. Recent developments in the arena of behavioral finance (BF) have raised questions about this approach. Although the idea of…

Investment cash flow sensitivity under managerial optimism: new evidence from NYSE panel data firms

OpenAIRE

Mohamed, Ezzeddine Ben; Fairchild, Richard; Bouri, Abdelfettah

2014-01-01

Investment cash flow sensitivity constitutes one important block of the corporate financial literature. While it is well documented in standard corporate finance, it is still young under behavioral corporate finance. In this paper, we test the investment cash flow sensitivity among panel data of American industrial firms during 1999-2010. Using Q-model of investment (Tobin, 1969), we construct and introduce a proxy of managerial optimism following Malmendier and Tate (2005a) to show the impac...

Optimal Housing, Consumption, and Investment Decisions over the Life Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus

2011-01-01

We derive explicit solutions to life-cycle utility maximization problems involving stock and bond investment, perishable consumption, and the rental and ownership of residential real estate. Prices of houses, stocks and bonds, and labor income are correlated. Because of a positive correlation...... between house prices and labor income, young individuals want little exposure to house price risk and tend to rent their home. Later in life the desired housing investment increases and will eventually reach and exceed the desired consumption, suggesting that the individual should buy his home—and either...... additional housing units (for renting out) or house price–linked financial assets. In the final years, preferences shift back to home rental. The derived strategies are still useful if housing positions are only reset infrequently. Our results suggest that markets for real estate investment trusts or other...

GREEN INVESTMENT: A STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INVESTMENT

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Jaya Shukla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Sustainable economic development has become an important area of concern due to climatic change with its long term effects. Climatic change has posed several challenges for economic sustainability of economies. Now major development projects have to comply with international environmental norms. Failure to do so may result in the delay of a project, fines including penalties for environmental damage or charges for remedial action, that affect the viability of a project or the value of any security taken. This paper investigates with help of secondary date using descriptive statistical technique opportunities and challenges of green investment. Here it is developed into suitable model for developing economies for successfully adopting green investment without much cost to their economies. The paper concludes that green investment involving direct investment and portfolio investment in firms adopting and following environmental protection norms will lead to sustainable growth and investment for economy.

Investment Strategy Based on Aviation Accidents: Are there abnormal returns?

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Marcos Rosa Costa

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This article investigates whether an investment strategy based on aviation accidents can generate abnormal returns. We performed an event study considering all the aviation accidents with more than 10 fatalities in the period from 1998 to 2009 and the stock market performance of the respective airlines and aircraft manufacturers in the days after the event. The tests performed were based on the model of Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay (1997 for definition of abnormal returns, by means of linear regression between the firms’ stock returns and the return of a market portfolio used as a benchmark. This enabled projecting the expected future returns of the airlines and aircraft makers, for comparison with the observed returns after each event. The result obtained suggests that an investment strategy based on aviation accidents is feasible because abnormal returns can be obtained in the period immediately following an aviation disaster.

Decoding the IT value problem an executive guide for achieving optimal ROI on critical IT investments

CERN Document Server

Fell, Gregory J

2013-01-01

Gain greater returns from your IT investments Revealing the secrets to proven, effective strategies that enable businesses to leverage the full value of highly expensive IT investments, Decoding the IT Value Problem is a no-nonsense guide for making smart IT investments and cutting through the noise of vendor marketing and media hype. Author Gregory Fell describes in rich detail the actual processes, frameworks, infrastructure and discipline required to develop and execute corporate IT strategies that areprofitable and sustainable.Provides a proven framework for develop

Optimal Corridor Selection for a Road Space Management Strategy: Methodology and Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sushant Sharma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Nationwide, there is a growing realization that there are valuable benefits to using the existing roadway facilities to their full potential rather than expanding capacity in a traditional way. Currently, state DOTs are looking for cost-effective transportation solutions to mitigate the growing congestion and increasing funding gaps. Innovative road space management strategies like narrowing of multiple lanes (three or more and shoulder width to add a lane enhance the utilization while eliminating the costs associated with constructing new lanes. Although this strategy (among many generally leads to better mobility, identifying optimal corridors is a challenge and may affect the benefits. Further, there is a likelihood that added capacity may provide localized benefits, at the expense of system level performance measures (travel time and crashes because of the relocation of traffic operational bottlenecks. This paper develops a novel transportation programming and investment decision method to identify optimal corridors for adding capacity in the network by leveraging lane widths. The methodology explicitly takes into consideration the system level benefits and safety. The programming compares two conflicting objectives of system travel time and safety benefits to find an optimal solution.

DETERMINATION OF THE OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENTS TO ENSURE THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAILWAY

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O. I. Kharchenko

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose. Every year more attention is paid for the theoretical and practical issue of sustainable development of railway transport. But today the mechanisms of financial support of this development are poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this article is to determine the optimal investment allocation to ensure sustainable development of the railway transport on the example of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway» and the creation of preconditions for the mathematical model development. Methodology. The ensuring task for sustainable development of railway transport is solved on the basis of the integral indicator of sustainable development effectiveness and defined as the maximization of this criterion. The optimization of measures technological and technical characters are proposed to carry out for increasing values of the integral performance measure components. To the optimization activities of technological nature that enhance the performance criteria belongs: optimization of the number of train and shunting locomotives, optimization of power handling mechanisms at the stations, optimization of routes of train flows. The activities related to the technical nature include: modernization of railways in the direction of their electrification and modernization of the running gear and coupler drawbars of rolling stock, as well as means of separators mechanization at stations to reduce noise impacts on the environment. Findings. The work resulted in the optimal allocation of investments to ensure the sustainable development of railway transportation of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway». This allows providing such kind of railway development when functioning of State Enterprise «Prydniprovsk Railway» is characterized by a maximum value of the integral indicator of efficiency. Originality. The work was reviewed and the new approach was proposed to determine the optimal allocation of capital investments to ensure sustainable

2016 Decadal Update of the NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Valinia, Azita; Tratt, David M.; Lotshaw, William T.; Gaab, Kevin M.; Komar, George J.; Rioux, Norman M.; Perez, Mario R.; Smith, Erin C.

2016-01-01

We describe the 2016 update of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as pertaining to NASAs Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade.

Managerial optimism and the impact of cash flow sensitivity on corporate investment: The case of Greece

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Dimitrios I. Maditinos

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose - The existence of optimism as a personal psychological characteristic of managers is a necessity in contemporary economy and decision making, although the phenomenon of over-optimism may lead to unfavourable outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the optimism bias and its impact on the firms' future performance. Especially regarding the recent years where Greece faces increased economic depression, high percentages of unemployment and lack of budgetary discipline, the goal is therefore, to find whether managerial optimism has an impact on corporate investment of Greek firms. Design/methodology/approach - The investment of firms with optimistic managers is more sensitive to cash flow than the investment of firms with managers who are not optimistic. To test the research question a number of fixed effect panel regressions of capital expenditures (capital expenditures divided by lagged assets is the dependent variable is run. In all regressions we analyse cash flow divided by lagged assets and lagged Tobin's Q as the independent variables, for firms whose managers are classified as optimistic and not optimistic. This classification is based on the optimism "dummy" variable, which is equal to 1 when members of the Executive Board and the Supervisory Board (ALL, only the Executive Board (EB, and only CEO are classified as optimistic. The concept of this study is tested for firms which are listed in the Athens Stock Exchange. A total of 243 firms are recorded, for the time period between 2007 and 2012, including firms from 11 different industries; basic materials, chemicals, consumer goods, consumer services, health care, industrials, financials, oil and gas, technology, telecommunications and utilities. Based on the literature and on related methodology aspects, financial firms are excluded. Findings - It was revealed that managerial optimism affects corporate investment in firms with high degree of closely held shares. Moreover

Investment Strategy in a Closed Loop Supply Chain: The Case of a Market with Competition between Two Retailers

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Sungwook Yoon

2017-09-01

Full Text Available To survive in the ceaseless cycle of competition, businesses have developed strategies to become sustainable. These strategies include reusing products, which can lead not only to the creation of economic benefits but also to improvements in a corporation’s social and environmental responsibility. Product reuse can also increase the profit earned on new products by compensating customers who bring in old products to buy new ones, as the ensuing remanufacturing process allows for the reuse of materials and thus drives down costs. As businesses have come to recognize these values, the marketing competition to retrieve used products from customers has intensified. This research focuses on identifying effective compensation strategies to determine the appropriate advertising investment and trade-in value in a market where two homogeneous retailers compete. Retailers advertise to secure more customers to trade in their used products and to generate more trade-in sales than competitors do. A retailer’s results may vary according to its competitor’s investment strategy, which makes it useful to employ information on past competitor investment patterns to plan future investment strategies. However, as competitors using one another’s information may intensify the competition, better investment results could be obtained by ignoring competitor investment information. Therefore, this study suggests four competition strategies that determine the advertisement costs and trade-in allowance spent by retailers and discusses the difference in the profits obtained by the retailers under each of the four strategies.

Essays in Investment Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobtcheff, C.

2006-01-01

shocks. Each player has the choice between two technologies: a large unit and a small one. We prove that different equilibria may exist depending on the parameters' values: a simultaneous investment equilibrium in the small unit or two mixed strategy equilibria. The inaction regions where both technologies provide expected net payoffs that are similar to each other do not survive the introduction of preemption. The choice value is thus equal to zero. Lastly, chapter 4 examines the problem of optimally allocating a fixed budget to a number of different investment projects. The marginal productivity of capital in a budget is first increasing then decreasing with the amount of capital invested in it. When the total budget is below some lower cutoff the share invested in a project can be discontinuous and non-monotone in the total budget. Ultimately, an upper cutoff is reached. Above it, all projects receive more capital as the budget increases. If the projects are identical, each will get the same budget. (author) [fr

Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation

OpenAIRE

J. Bradford De Long; Andrei Shleifer; Lawrence H. Summers; Robert J. Waldmann

1989-01-01

Analyses of the role of rational speculators in financial markets usually presume that such investors dampen price fluctuations by trading against liquidity or noise traders. This conclusion does not necessarily hold when noise traders follow positive-feedback investment strategies buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. In such cases, it may pay rational speculators to try to jump on the bandwagon early and to purchase ahead of noise trader demand. If rational speculators' attempts t...

Operating cost reduction by optimization of I and C backfitting strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraft, Heinz-U.

2002-01-01

Full text: The safe and economic operation of a nuclear power plant requires a large scope of automation systems to act properly in combination. The associated maintenance costs, necessary to test these systems periodically and to repair or to replace them partly or completely, are one important factor in the overall operating costs of a nuclear power plant. Reducing these costs by reducing the maintenance effort could decrease the availability of the power plant and by this way increase the operating costs significantly. The minimization of the overall operating costs requires a well-balanced maintenance strategy taking into account all these opposite influences. The replacement of an existing I and C system by a new one reduces the maintenance cost in the long term and increases the plant availability. However, it requires some investments in the short term. On the other hand the repair of an I and C system avoids investments, but it doesn't solve the aging problems. That means maintenance costs will increase in the long term and the plant availability could be decreased. An optimized maintenance strategy can be elaborated on a plant specific base taking into account the residual lifetime of the plant, the properties of the installed I and C systems as well as their influence on the plant availability. As a general result of such an optimization performed by FANP it has been found as a rule that the replacement of I and C systems becomes the most economic way the longer the expected lifetime is and the stronger the I and C system influences, the availability of the plant. (author)

DEA-BASED INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

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Margareta Gardijan

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the DEA-based investment strategy for constructing of a stock portfolio in the Croatian stock market. The relative efficiency of the DMUs, which are in this case the selected stocks from Zagreb Stock Exchange, is obtained from the output oriented CCR and BCC models. The set of inputs consists of risk measures, namely return variance, Value at Risk (VaR and beta coefficient $(\\beta$, while monthly return represents an output. Following the „efficiency scores“, obtained from the models, we construct a portfolio of DEA-efficient stocks (DEA-portfolio. This portfolio can be modified over time according to changes of the DMU's efficiency scores. By comparing the returns of the EA-portfolio and the market return during the given time period, the applicability of the investment strategy based on a DEA methodology, as a strategy for achieving superior returns, is estimated.

Optimal management strategies in variable environments: Stochastic optimal control methods

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, B.K.

1985-01-01

Dynamic optimization was used to investigate the optimal defoliation of salt desert shrubs in north-western Utah. Management was formulated in the context of optimal stochastic control theory, with objective functions composed of discounted or time-averaged biomass yields. Climatic variability and community patterns of salt desert shrublands make the application of stochastic optimal control both feasible and necessary. A primary production model was used to simulate shrub responses and harvest yields under a variety of climatic regimes and defoliation patterns. The simulation results then were used in an optimization model to determine optimal defoliation strategies. The latter model encodes an algorithm for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Three questions were addressed: (i) What effect do changes in weather patterns have on optimal management strategies? (ii) What effect does the discounting of future returns have? (iii) How do the optimal strategies perform relative to certain fixed defoliation strategies? An analysis was performed for the three shrub species, winterfat (Ceratoides lanata), shadscale (Atriplex confertifolia) and big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). In general, the results indicate substantial differences among species in optimal control strategies, which are associated with differences in physiological and morphological characteristics. Optimal policies for big sagebrush varied less with variation in climate, reserve levels and discount rates than did either shadscale or winterfat. This was attributed primarily to the overwintering of photosynthetically active tissue and to metabolic activity early in the growing season. Optimal defoliation of shadscale and winterfat generally was more responsive to differences in plant vigor and climate, reflecting the sensitivity of these species to utilization and replenishment of carbohydrate reserves. Similarities could be seen in the influence of both

The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

2016-01-01

In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

Derivative Trade Optimizing Model Utilizing GP Based on Behavioral Finance Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumura, Koki; Kawamoto, Masaru

This paper proposed a new technique which makes the strategy trees for the derivative (option) trading investment decision based on the behavioral finance theory and optimizes it using evolutionary computation, in order to achieve high profitability. The strategy tree uses a technical analysis based on a statistical, experienced technique for the investment decision. The trading model is represented by various technical indexes, and the strategy tree is optimized by the genetic programming(GP) which is one of the evolutionary computations. Moreover, this paper proposed a method using the prospect theory based on the behavioral finance theory to set psychological bias for profit and deficit and attempted to select the appropriate strike price of option for the higher investment efficiency. As a result, this technique produced a good result and found the effectiveness of this trading model by the optimized dealings strategy.

Success in Investing: Integrating Spending Policy into Asset Allocation Strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Morrell, Louis R.

1996-01-01

Successful college and university investments hinge on an asset allocation strategy capable of meeting the institution's needs for income and growth in principal at the lowest possible risk. Periodic adjustments must be made when there is a shift in the institution's risk tolerance, modification in need for income distribution, and changes in…

Determining an optimal supply chain strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Intaher M. Ambe

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In today’s business environment, many companies want to become efficient and flexible, but have struggled, in part, because they have not been able to formulate optimal supply chain strategies. Often this is as a result of insufficient knowledge about the costs involved in maintaining supply chains and the impact of the supply chain on their operations. Hence, these companies find it difficult to manufacture at a competitive cost and respond quickly and reliably to market demand. Mismatched strategies are the root cause of the problems that plague supply chains, and supply-chain strategies based on a one-size-fits-all strategy often fail. The purpose of this article is to suggest instruments to determine an optimal supply chain strategy. This article, which is conceptual in nature, provides a review of current supply chain strategies and suggests a framework for determining an optimal strategy.

Investment Strategy on the Zagreb Stock Exchange Based on Dynamic DEA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tihana Škrinjarić

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is a growing interest in the application of quantitative methods in portfolio management, as the results of their application can be used as guidelines for managing a successful investment portfolio, i.e., a portfolio that outperforms the market. This paper deals with the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA approach and a Dynamic Slacks-Based Measure as a method of forming a portfolio which would predominantly outperform the market. In order to test the strategy, data on stocks listed on the Zagreb Stock Exchange were gathered for the period April 2009 – June 2012. Using the quarterly returns, standard deviations and coefficients of skewness as links, a dynamic slacks-based measure approach was applied to evaluate the relative efficiency of stocks in each quarter. The findings indicate that a portfolio based on the results of the optimization beats the market in terms of both returns and risk. This is the first implementation of the dynamic DEA model in stock trading. The results suggest that it is superior to basic DEA models.

Investment and protection of the OAPEC surplus: a strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nuwayhid, H.S.

1981-02-01

The Arab countries could not absorb the surplus dollars when oil prices rose in the 1970s, nor were they prepared to move into Western financial markets without causing disruptions. A strategy for protecting these surpluses takes into account market realities and the responsibilities of Arab oil-exporting countries toward the Third World. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) strategy mainly applies to those countries that cannot absorb their surpluses for internal development. Emphasizing asset protection rather than investment, the strategy suggests a new oil-pricing method, and a shift toward real assets, especially those in the Arab and Third World. Success will require help from the rest of the world to reform the International Monetary System, east stagflation, and recycle petrodollars. 6 references, 2 tables. (DCK)

Investment strategy for low-carbon power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamasaki, Yukihiro; Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Yoshida, Yoshikuni

2011-01-01

Recently, it is needed to reduce CO 2 emissions for prevention of global warming. In Japan, the power generation sector is the biggest part in terms of CO 2 emissions, therefore it is very important to cope with the reduction of the emissions from this sector. From this point of view, it is assumed that the nuclear power generation is the most practical option to reduce them. In order to evaluate the possibility of introduction of the nuclear power, we built a generation planning model and simulate to analyze the transition of the optimal generation mix. Also, we evaluate the investment in the introduction of the nuclear power quantitatively using the real option analysis. (author)

Decision support model for establishing the optimal energy retrofit strategy for existing multi-family housing complexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Seon Park, Hyo

2014-01-01

The number of multi-family housing complexes (MFHCs) over 15 yr old in South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million by 2015. Accordingly, the demand for energy retrofit in the deteriorating MFHCs is rapidly increasing. This study aimed to develop a decision support model for establishing the optimal energy retrofit strategy for existing MFHCs. It can provide clear criteria for establishing the carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) and allow efficient budget allocation for conducting the energy retrofit. The CERT for “S” MFHC, one of MFHCs located in Seoul, as a case study, was set at 23.0% (electricity) and 27.9% (gas energy). In the economic and environmental assessment, it was determined that scenario #12 was the optimal scenario (ranked second with regard to NPV 40 (net present value at year 40) and third with regard to SIR 40 (saving to investment ratio at year 40). The proposed model could be useful for owners, construction managers, or policymakers in charge of establishing energy retrofit strategy for existing MFHCs. It could allow contractors in a competitive bidding process to rationally establish the CERT and select the optimal energy retrofit strategy. It can be also applied to any other country or sector in a global environment. - Highlights: • The proposed model was developed to establish the optimal energy retrofit strategy. • Advanced case-based reasoning was applied to establish the community-based CERT. • Energy simulation was conducted to analyze the effects of energy retrofit strategy. • The optimal strategy can be finally selected based on the LCC and LCCO 2 analysis. • It could be extended to any other country or sector in the global environment

Strategic Energy Resource Investment Optimization for the US Army (Serious - A). Appendix D

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Anker, David

2004-01-01

The main analytical tool in the SERIOUS-A project for determining investment strategies for providing electrical power to critical mission facilities at an installation by distributed generation (DG...

Quantitative investment strategies and portfolio management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Guo, J.

2012-01-01

This book contains three essays on alternative investments and portfolio management. Taking from a portfolio investor’s perspective, the first essay analyzes the portfolio implication of investing in hedge funds when there is a hedge fund lockup period. The second essay studies the investment

Portfolio Optimization under Local-Stochastic Volatility: Coefficient Taylor Series Approximations & Implied Sharpe Ratio

OpenAIRE

Lorig, Matthew; Sircar, Ronnie

2015-01-01

We study the finite horizon Merton portfolio optimization problem in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Using model coefficient expansion techniques, we derive approximations for the both the value function and the optimal investment strategy. We also analyze the `implied Sharpe ratio' and derive a series approximation for this quantity. The zeroth-order approximation of the value function and optimal investment strategy correspond to those obtained by Merton (1969) when the risky...

Momentum Investment Strategy : (An Empirical Study of the Canadian Stock Market and the Swedish Stock Market)

OpenAIRE

Ludvigsson, Anita

2008-01-01

Abstract Market efficiency is a highly debated topic within the academic research field of finance. Several studies have presented that the return on stocks may be predictable by employing the momentum investment strategy, which contradicts the Efficient Market Hypothesis in exchange market. There is extensive international evidence, on an academic level that the momentum investment strategy yields positive abnormal returns when short-term periods are considered. This paper examines the profi...

A framework for social investment strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kvist, Jon

2015-01-01

and multidimensional nature of social issues and social investments. Theoretically, this article establishes such a framework consisting of generational, life course and gender perspectives on social investments. The generational perspective brings out that social investments involve horizontal redistribution......, underpin the productive and reproductive social contract between generations, and the increased diversity within generations. The life course perspective demonstrates how social issues and social investments in one life stage depend on the situation in prior life stages and affect the situation in later...... life stages and, possibly, in multiple dimensions. The gender perspective shows how social investments can improve economic and social returns when gender and ageing over the life course are taken into consideration. Empirically, cross-national patterns indicate a positive relation between social...

Optimal energy management strategy for self-reconfigurable batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouchhima, Nejmeddine; Schnierle, Marc; Schulte, Sascha; Birke, Kai Peter

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a novel energy management strategy for multi-cell high voltage batteries where the current through each cell can be controlled, called self-reconfigurable batteries. An optimized control strategy further enhances the energy efficiency gained by the hardware architecture of those batteries. Currently, achieving cell equalization by using the active balancing circuits is considered as the best way to optimize the energy efficiency of the battery pack. This study demonstrates that optimizing the energy efficiency of self-reconfigurable batteries is no more strongly correlated to the cell balancing. According to the features of this novel battery architecture, the energy management strategy is formulated as nonlinear dynamic optimization problem. To solve this optimal control, an optimization algorithm that generates the optimal discharge policy for a given driving cycle is developed based on dynamic programming and code vectorization. The simulation results show that the designed energy management strategy maximizes the system efficiency across the battery lifetime over conventional approaches. Furthermore, the present energy management strategy can be implemented online due to the reduced complexity of the optimization algorithm. - Highlights: • The energy efficiency of self-reconfigurable batteries is maximized. • The energy management strategy for the battery is formulated as optimal control problem. • Developing an optimization algorithm using dynamic programming techniques and code vectorization. • Simulation studies are conducted to validate the proposed optimal strategy.

Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2013-06-01

We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

Offshore Wind Farm Layout Design Considering Optimized Power Dispatch Strategy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hou, Peng; Hu, Weihao; N. Soltani, Mohsen

2017-01-01

Offshore wind farm has drawn more and more attention recently due to its higher energy capacity and more freedom to occupy area. However, the investment is higher. In order to make a cost-effective wind farm, the wind farm layout should be optimized. The wake effect is one of the dominant factors...... leading to energy losses. It is expected that the optimized placement of wind turbines (WT) over a large sea area can lead to the best tradeoff between energy yields and capital investment. This paper proposes a novel way to position offshore WTs for a regular shaped wind farm. In addition to optimizing...... the direction of wind farm placement and the spacing between WTs, the control strategy’s impact on energy yields is also discussed. Since the problem is non-convex and lots of optimization variables are involved, an evolutionary algorithm, the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), is adopted to find...

Concentrating solar power plant investment and operation decisions under different price and support mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kost, Christoph; Flath, Christoph M.; Möst, Dominik

2013-01-01

The dispatch opportunities provided by storage-enhanced Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants have direct implications on the investment decisions as not only nameplate capacity but also the storage capacity and the solar multiple play a crucial role for the viability of the plant investment. By integrating additional technical aspects and operation strategies, this paper extends the optimization model proposed by Madaeni et al., How Thermal Energy Storage Enhances the Economic Viability of Concentrating Solar Power. Using a mixed integer maximization approach the paper yields both the optimal layout decision and the operation of CSP plants. Subsequently, the economic value of CSP storage is analyzed via energy modeling of a Spanish plant location under the respective wholesale market prices as well as the local feed-in tariff. The analysis shows that investment incentives for CSP plants with storage need to appropriately account for the interdependency between the price incentives and the plant operating strategy. As the resulting revenue characteristics influence the optimal size of solar field and storage differing operating strategies also give rise to differing optimal plant layouts. Most noteworthy, the current Spanish support scheme offers only limited incentives for larger thermal storage capacity. - Highlights: • Dispatch opportunities of CSP have direct implications on both investment and operational decisions. • Valuation approach with a single mixed integer maximization problem. • Profitability of CSP plants under the premium feed-in tariff in Spain was assessed. • Layout decision and storage size are influenced by remuneration scheme. • Discuss alternative remuneration schemes for “dispatchable” RE technologies

The strategy of ethic investment of the Norwegian petroleum fund and arms companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paulin, Cedric

2006-01-01

The author comments the background of the consecutive disengagements of the Norwegian Government Petroleum Fund from several companies belonging to the arms sector, a disengagement which complies with the opinion of various actors in favour of a socially responsible investment, and of NGOs and associations opposed to the armament sector. After having recalled the global definition of this fund which was created in 1990, and of its investment policy, the author analyses the framework within which these disengagements occur, comments how these different spheres (the fund and the other above mentioned actors) finally met. He also wanders whether this ethics actually concern arms company or is in fact related to a problem proper to investment funds in general. The author notably indicates the various arms companies from which the Petroleum Fund withdrew its investments. The author also outlines some remaining ambiguities of the strategy of ethic investment of the former Norwegian Petroleum Fund, and shows that its methodology of ethic and socially responsible investment applied to the arms sector is in fact not yet precisely defined

Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

Science.gov (United States)

McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

2007-12-01

Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

INTERNATIONALIZATION STRATEGIES OF THE BRAZILIAN MEAT AGRIBUSINESS SECTOR: EXPORTS OR DIRECT INVESTMENT ABROAD?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Stal

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the internationalization strategies of the four largest Brazilian companies in the meat (beef, pork and poultry agribusiness sector, by considering the comparative and competitive advantages of the country and the companies. JBS, Marfrig, Sadia and Perdigão were studied, of which the last two merged in May 2009, forming Brasil Foods. The authors looked into what led these companies to start investing  abroad directly, as from 2005, as a complement to their exports, the preferred strategy for placing products in foreign markets. The research method used was the multiple case study, drawing on primary data (interviews, corporate annual reports, financial statements, press releases and shareholder information and secondary data (theses, dissertations, academic articles, reports in newspapers and business journals, using bibliographic and documentary research. Everything was analyzed in the light of international business and strategy theories. The results show that exports still predominate and that investing directly abroad was, in principle, a reactive strategy to sanitary barriers against Brazilian products. However, the acquisition of companies in restriction-free countries has increased as part of a forward-looking strategy for gaining access to new markets and strengthening brands. Key-words: Agribusiness. Internationalization. Strategy. 

Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.

2003-01-01

Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

Barriers to optimizing investments in the built environment to reduce youth obesity: policy-maker perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Jill L; MacKay, Kathryn C; Manuel, Patricia M; McHugh, Tara-Leigh F

2010-01-01

To identify factors which limit the ability of local governments to make appropriate investments in the built environment to promote youth health and reduce obesity outcomes in Atlantic Canada. Policy-makers and professionals participated in focus groups to discuss the receptiveness of local governments to introducing health considerations into decision-making. Seven facilitated focus groups involved 44 participants from Atlantic Canada. Thematic discourse analysis of the meeting transcripts identified systemic barriers to creating a built environment that fosters health for youth aged 12-15 years. Participants consistently identified four categories of barriers. Financial barriers limit the capacities of local government to build, maintain and operate appropriate facilities. Legacy issues mean that communities inherit a built environment designed to facilitate car use, with inadequate zoning authority to control fast food outlets, and without the means to determine where schools are built or how they are used. Governance barriers derive from government departments with distinct and competing mandates, with a professional structure that privileges engineering, and with funding programs that encourage competition between municipalities. Cultural factors and values affect outcomes: people have adapted to car-oriented living; poverty reduces options for many families; parental fears limit children's mobility; youth receive limited priority in built environment investments. Participants indicated that health issues have increasing profile within local government, making this an opportune time to discuss strategies for optimizing investments in the built environment. The focus group method can foster mutual learning among professionals within government in ways that could advance health promotion.

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Synthesis of Optimal Strategies Using HyTech

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bouyer, Patricia; Cassez, Franck; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

2005-01-01

Priced timed (game) automata extend timed (game) automata with costs on both locations and transitions. The problem of synthesizing an optimal winning strategy for a priced timed game under some hypotheses has been shown decidable in [P. Bouyer, F. Cassez, E. Fleury, and K.G. Larsen. Optimal...... strategies in priced timed game automata. Research Report BRICS RS-04-4, Denmark, Feb. 2004. Available at http://www.brics.dk/RS/04/4/]. In this paper, we present an algorithm for computing the optimal cost and for synthesizing an optimal strategy in case there exists one. We also describe the implementation...

Optimal Pricing Strategy for Wireless Social Community Networks

OpenAIRE

Mazloumian, Amin; Manshaei, Mohammad Hossein; Felegyhazi, Mark; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2008-01-01

The increasing number of mobile applications fuels the demand for affordable and ubiquitous wireless access. The traditional wireless network technologies such as EV-DO or WiMAX provide this service but require a huge upfront investment in infrastructure and spectrum. On the contrary, as they do not have to face such an investment, social community operators rely on subscribers who constitute a community of users. The pricing strategy of the provided wireless access is an open problem for thi...

Development Strategies for Tourism Destinations: Tourism Sophistication vs. Resource Investments

OpenAIRE

Rainer Andergassen; Guido Candela

2010-01-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of development strategies for tourism destinations. We argue that resource investments unambiguously increase tourism revenues and that increasing the degree of tourism sophistication, that is increasing the variety of tourism related goods and services, increases tourism activity and decreases the perceived quality of the destination's resource endowment, leading to an ambiguous effect on tourism revenues. We disentangle these two effects and charact...

Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Wenji; Zhu, Bing; Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana; Obersteiner, Michael; Fei, Weiyang

2010-01-01

The increasing pressure resulting from the need for CO 2 mitigation is in conflict with the predominance of coal in China's energy structure. A possible solution to this tension between climate change and fossil fuel consumption fact could be the introduction of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, high cost and other problems give rise to great uncertainty in R and D and popularization of carbon capture technology. This paper presents a real options model incorporating policy uncertainty described by carbon price scenarios (including stochasticity), allowing for possible technological change. This model is further used to determine the best strategy for investing in CCS technology in an uncertain environment in China and the effect of climate policy on the decision-making process of investment into carbon-saving technologies.

Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Shapovalova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.

Formation of the Optimal Investment Portfolio as a Precondition for the Bank’s Financial Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Shapovalova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This article analyses the definition of the bank’s financial security and investment activities. It describes a few types of models of bank’s risks management and the method CAPM, which is chosen for use. In support for the chosen CAPM method, we included the mathematical model that allows elaborating an optimal investment portfolio. The model stands at the basis of this method and a case study of one of Ukrainian banks.

THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Ye. Uvarov

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

Development of Investment Strategy Applying Corporate Social Responsibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jekaterina Kuzmina

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Due to globalization processes and technological development, companies are having more influence on global society than ever. Therefore, business misconduct causes enormous harm to stakeholders, whereas ethical behavior is becoming an important issue. The goal of the following study is to verify and measure a positive effect from investments in social activities on financial attractiveness of companies in the form of its stock portfolio value growth. Methodology/methods: In order to achieve the goal of the research, quantitative analysis is used by comparing performance of stock portfolio of companies having long-term investments in social activities with market index increment. The quantitative results are accompanied with the review of corporate social responsibility definition and some practical issues on governmental and corporation level. Scientific aim: The conducted research contributes both to the scientific discussion about development of appropriate investment strategy in companies applying CSR principles as well as to the discussion of related terminology used in the field. Findings: The research has shown that engagement in the CSR activities tends to have strong positive effect on companies’ financial results and investors’ financial performance. The research proves this fact by comparing value increment of CSR-portfolio (+35.99% gained from January 2015 to March 2017 with market index (+22.37% in the same period. Conclusions: Regardless the positive result achieved in the study the authors have determined several gaps in the research, which will be discussed in the further studies on the field.

An Optimization Framework for Investment Evaluation of Complex Renewable Energy Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Olave-Rojas

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Enhancing the role of renewable energies in existing power systems is one of the most crucial challenges that society faces today. However, the high variability of their generation potential and the temporal disparity between the demand and the generation potential represent technological and operational gaps that burden the massive incorporation of renewable sources into power systems. Energy storage technologies are an alternative to tackle this gap; nonetheless, their incorporation within large-scale power grids calls for decision-making tools that ensure an appropriate design and sizing of power systems that exploit the benefits of incorporating storage facilities along with renewable generation power. In this paper, we present an optimization framework for aiding the evaluation of the strategic design of complex renewable power systems. The developed tool relies on an optimization problem, the generation, transmission, storage energy location and sizing problem, which allows one to compute economically-attractive investment plans given by the location and sizing of generation and storage energy systems, along with the corresponding layout of transmission lines. Results on a real case study (located in the central region of Chile, characterized by carefully-curated data, show the potential of the developed tool for aiding long-term investment planning.

Irreversible investments revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandal, Leif K.; Steinshamn, Stein I.; Hoff, Ayoe

2007-01-01

A multi-dimensional, non-linear dynamic model in continuous time is presented for the purpose of finding the optimal combination of exploitation and capital investment in optimal renewable resource management. Non-malleability of capital is incorporated in the model through an asymmetric cost......-function of investment, and investments can be both positive and negative. Exploitation is controlled through the utilisation rate of available capital. A novel feature in this model is that there are costs associated with the available capital whether it is utilised or not. And, in contrast to most of the previous...

Optimal GENCO bidding strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Feng

Electricity industries worldwide are undergoing a period of profound upheaval. The conventional vertically integrated mechanism is being replaced by a competitive market environment. Generation companies have incentives to apply novel technologies to lower production costs, for example: Combined Cycle units. Economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units becomes a non-convex optimization problem, which is difficult if not impossible to solve by conventional methods. Several techniques are proposed here: Mixed Integer Linear Programming, a hybrid method, as well as Evolutionary Algorithms. Evolutionary Algorithms share a common mechanism, stochastic searching per generation. The stochastic property makes evolutionary algorithms robust and adaptive enough to solve a non-convex optimization problem. This research implements GA, EP, and PS algorithms for economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units, and makes a comparison with classical Mixed Integer Linear Programming. The electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models. This research identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple period situation. The equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control is then developed for fuel resource constraints. Finally, the research discusses the issues of multiple equilibria and mixed strategies, which are caused by the transmission network. Additionally, an advantage of the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. A market simulator is a valuable training and evaluation tool to assist sellers, buyers, and regulators to understand market performance and make better decisions. A traditional optimization model may not be enough to consider the distributed

Evaluation on Optimal Scale of Rural Fixed-asset Investment – Based on Microcosmic Perspective of Farmers’ Income Increase

OpenAIRE

DENG, Jinqian; SHAN, Kangkang; ZHANG, Yan

2014-01-01

The rural fundamental and productive fixed-asset investment not only makes active influence on the changes of farmers’ operational, wages and property income, but it also has an optimal scale range for farmers’ income increase. From the perspective of farmers’ income increase, this article evaluates the optimal scale of rural fixed-asset investment by setting up model with statistic data, and the results show that the optimal scale of per capita rural fixed-asset investment is 76.35% of...

An Extended N-Player Network Game and Simulation of Four Investment Strategies on a Complex Innovation Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wen; Koptyug, Nikita; Ye, Shutao; Jia, Yifan; Lu, Xiaolong

2016-01-01

As computer science and complex network theory develop, non-cooperative games and their formation and application on complex networks have been important research topics. In the inter-firm innovation network, it is a typical game behavior for firms to invest in their alliance partners. Accounting for the possibility that firms can be resource constrained, this paper analyzes a coordination game using the Nash bargaining solution as allocation rules between firms in an inter-firm innovation network. We build an extended inter-firm n-player game based on nonidealized conditions, describe four investment strategies and simulate the strategies on an inter-firm innovation network in order to compare their performance. By analyzing the results of our experiments, we find that our proposed greedy strategy is the best-performing in most situations. We hope this study provides a theoretical insight into how firms make investment decisions.

An Extended N-Player Network Game and Simulation of Four Investment Strategies on a Complex Innovation Network.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Zhou

Full Text Available As computer science and complex network theory develop, non-cooperative games and their formation and application on complex networks have been important research topics. In the inter-firm innovation network, it is a typical game behavior for firms to invest in their alliance partners. Accounting for the possibility that firms can be resource constrained, this paper analyzes a coordination game using the Nash bargaining solution as allocation rules between firms in an inter-firm innovation network. We build an extended inter-firm n-player game based on nonidealized conditions, describe four investment strategies and simulate the strategies on an inter-firm innovation network in order to compare their performance. By analyzing the results of our experiments, we find that our proposed greedy strategy is the best-performing in most situations. We hope this study provides a theoretical insight into how firms make investment decisions.

Optimal Investment in Age-Structured Goodwill

OpenAIRE

Silvia Faggian; Luca Grosset

2012-01-01

Segmentation is a core strategy in modern marketing, and age-specific segmentation based on the age of the consumers is very common in practice. Age-specific segmentation enables the change of the segments composition during time and can be studied only by means of dynamic advertising models. Here we assume that a firm wants to optimally promote and sell a single product in an age-segmented market and we model the awareness of this product using an infinite dimensional Nerlove-Arrow goodwill ...

Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wickart, Marcel; Madlener, Reinhard

2007-01-01

In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO 2 tax on the investment decision

Producer incentives and plant investments for Salmonella control in pork supply chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Backus, G.B.C.; King, R.P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents a unified analysis of dynamic producer incentive systems for Salmonella control in primary production and slaughter plant investments in Salmonella control measures. We identify optimal incentive system parameters and cost-effective control strategies for achieving various levels

Firm Decisions: Determinants of Investments

OpenAIRE

Ionescu Alexandra

2011-01-01

The investment decision is part of a companies’ investment strategy. Defined as a logical set of technical and economic information, the investment strategy determines the main objectives of the firm regarding its investments, based on studies, analysis and simulations. It also establishes the actions to be undertaken in order to achieve the objectives, methods of achieving them, sources of funding and resource allocation methods. Still, all these are influenced by several factors. The invest...

Energy transition: which investments for which competitiveness? Understanding German, Spanish and British strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This document reports a study which aimed at a better understanding of energy transition strategies in Germany, Spain and United Kingdom. It outlines that these strategies are different and give contrasted results, that economic implication of energy transition programmes are also different. Two financing approaches are identified (mainly by private investors, or by mobilizing all types of financial support), and therefore two economic strategies (productivity-oriented investments, or search for a structural competitiveness with a new growth model). The report notices that there is no reference study of the impact of energy transition on employment

Strategies for Optimizing Algal Biology for Enhanced Biomass Production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barry, Amanda N.; Starkenburg, Shawn R.; Sayre, Richard T.

2015-01-01

One of the most environmentally sustainable ways to produce high-energy density (oils) feed stocks for the production of liquid transportation fuels is from biomass. Photosynthetic carbon capture combined with biomass combustion (point source) and subsequent carbon capture and sequestration has also been proposed in the intergovernmental panel on climate change report as one of the most effective and economical strategies to remediate atmospheric greenhouse gases. To maximize photosynthetic carbon capture efficiency and energy-return-on-investment, we must develop biomass production systems that achieve the greatest yields with the lowest inputs. Numerous studies have demonstrated that microalgae have among the greatest potentials for biomass production. This is in part due to the fact that all alga cells are photoautotrophic, they have active carbon concentrating mechanisms to increase photosynthetic productivity, and all the biomass is harvestable unlike plants. All photosynthetic organisms, however, convert only a fraction of the solar energy they capture into chemical energy (reduced carbon or biomass). To increase aerial carbon capture rates and biomass productivity, it will be necessary to identify the most robust algal strains and increase their biomass production efficiency often by genetic manipulation. We review recent large-scale efforts to identify the best biomass producing strains and metabolic engineering strategies to improve aerial productivity. These strategies include optimization of photosynthetic light-harvesting antenna size to increase energy capture and conversion efficiency and the potential development of advanced molecular breeding techniques. To date, these strategies have resulted in up to twofold increases in biomass productivity.

Strategies for Optimizing Algal Biology for Enhanced Biomass Production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barry, Amanda N.; Starkenburg, Shawn R.; Sayre, Richard T., E-mail: rsayre@newmexicoconsortium.org [Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico Consortium, Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-02-02

One of the most environmentally sustainable ways to produce high-energy density (oils) feed stocks for the production of liquid transportation fuels is from biomass. Photosynthetic carbon capture combined with biomass combustion (point source) and subsequent carbon capture and sequestration has also been proposed in the intergovernmental panel on climate change report as one of the most effective and economical strategies to remediate atmospheric greenhouse gases. To maximize photosynthetic carbon capture efficiency and energy-return-on-investment, we must develop biomass production systems that achieve the greatest yields with the lowest inputs. Numerous studies have demonstrated that microalgae have among the greatest potentials for biomass production. This is in part due to the fact that all alga cells are photoautotrophic, they have active carbon concentrating mechanisms to increase photosynthetic productivity, and all the biomass is harvestable unlike plants. All photosynthetic organisms, however, convert only a fraction of the solar energy they capture into chemical energy (reduced carbon or biomass). To increase aerial carbon capture rates and biomass productivity, it will be necessary to identify the most robust algal strains and increase their biomass production efficiency often by genetic manipulation. We review recent large-scale efforts to identify the best biomass producing strains and metabolic engineering strategies to improve aerial productivity. These strategies include optimization of photosynthetic light-harvesting antenna size to increase energy capture and conversion efficiency and the potential development of advanced molecular breeding techniques. To date, these strategies have resulted in up to twofold increases in biomass productivity.

Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

2018-02-01

China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

Effects of a Capital Investment and a Discount Rate on the Optimal Operational Duration of an HLW Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung Ki; Lee, Min Soo; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

2008-01-01

This study aims to estimate the effects of a capital investment and a discount rate on the optimal operational duration of an HLW repository. According to the previous researches of the KRS(Korea Reference System) for an HLW repository, the amounts of 7,068,200 C$K and 2,636.2 MEUR are necessary to construct and operate surface and underground facilities. Since these huge costs can be a burden to some national economies, a study for a cost optimization should be performed. So we aim to drive the dominant cost driver for an optimal operational duration. A longer operational duration may be needed to dispose of more spent fuels continuously from a nuclear power plant, or to attain a retrievability of an HLW repository at a depth of 500 m below the ground level in a stable plutonic rock body. In this sense, an extended operational duration for an HLW repository affects the overall disposal costs of a repository. In this paper, only the influence of a capital investment and a discount rate was estimated from the view of optimized economics. Because these effects must be significant factors to minimize the overall disposal costs based on minimizing the sum of operational costs and capital investments

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment or Acquisition: Optimal Entry Modes for Multinationals

OpenAIRE

Theo Eicher; Jong Woo Kang

2004-01-01

We examine multinationals’ optimal entry modes into foreign markets as a function of market size, FDI fixed costs, tariffs and transport costs. Our results highlight why large countries are more likely to attract acquisition investment, while intermediate-sized countries may be served predominantly through trade, even in the presence of high tariffs. Small countries are most likely to experience either FDI or no entry. We also show how these results vary with the competition intensity in th...

Maximizing the return on taxpayers' investments in fundamental biomedical research.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorsch, Jon R

2015-05-01

The National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) at the U.S. National Institutes of Health has an annual budget of more than $2.3 billion. The institute uses these funds to support fundamental biomedical research and training at universities, medical schools, and other institutions across the country. My job as director of NIGMS is to work to maximize the scientific returns on the taxpayers' investments. I describe how we are optimizing our investment strategies and funding mechanisms, and how, in the process, we hope to create a more efficient and sustainable biomedical research enterprise.

Investing in breastfeeding - the world breastfeeding costing initiative.

Science.gov (United States)

Holla-Bhar, Radha; Iellamo, Alessandro; Gupta, Arun; Smith, Julie P; Dadhich, Jai Prakash

2015-01-01

Despite scientific evidence substantiating the importance of breastfeeding in child survival and development and its economic benefits, assessments show gaps in many countries' implementation of the 2003 WHO and UNICEF Global Strategy for Infant and Young Child Feeding (Global Strategy). Optimal breastfeeding is a particular example: initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour of birth, exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months; and continued breastfeeding for two years or more, together with safe, adequate, appropriate, responsive complementary feeding starting in the sixth month. While the understanding of "optimal" may vary among countries, there is a need for governments to facilitate an enabling environment for women to achieve optimal breastfeeding. Lack of financial resources for key programs is a major impediment, making economic perspectives important for implementation. Globally, while achieving optimal breastfeeding could prevent more than 800,000 under five deaths annually, in 2013, US$58 billion was spent on commercial baby food including milk formula. Support for improved breastfeeding is inadequately prioritized by policy and practice internationally. The World Breastfeeding Costing Initiative (WBCi) launched in 2013, attempts to determine the financial investment that is necessary to implement the Global Strategy, and to introduce a tool to estimate the costs for individual countries. The article presents detailed cost estimates for implementing the Global Strategy, and outlines the WBCi Financial Planning Tool. Estimates use demographic data from UNICEF's State of the World's Children 2013. The WBCi takes a programmatic approach to scaling up interventions, including policy and planning, health and nutrition care systems, community services and mother support, media promotion, maternity protection, WHO International Code of Marketing of Breastmilk Substitutes implementation, monitoring and research, for optimal breastfeeding practices

Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, P. E.; O'Donnell, G.

2014-01-01

Due to a number of recent high-profile flood events and the apparent threat from global warming, governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains. However, adopting a proactive approach as a universal strategy is not affordable. It has been argued that delaying expensive and essentially irreversible capital decisions could be a prudent strategy in situations with high future uncertainty. This paper firstly uses Monte Carlo simulation to explore the performance of proactive and reactive investment strategies using a rational cost-benefit approach in a natural system with varying levels of persistence/interannual variability in annual maximum floods. It is found that, as persistence increases, there is a change in investment strategy optimality from proactive to reactive. This could have implications for investment strategies under the increasingly variable climate that is expected with global warming. As part of the emerging holistic approaches to flood risk management, there is increasing emphasis on stakeholder participation in determining where and when flood protection investments are made, and so flood risk management is becoming more people-centred. As a consequence, multiple actors are involved in the decision-making process, and the social sciences are assuming an increasingly important role in flood risk management. There is a need for modelling approaches which can couple the natural and human system elements. It is proposed that coupled human and natural system (CHANS) modelling could play an important role in understanding the motivations, actions and influence of citizens and institutions and how these impact on the effective delivery of flood protection investment. A framework for using agent-based modelling of human activities leading to flood investments is outlined, and some of the challenges associated with implementation are discussed.

Optimized Power Dispatch Strategy for Offshore Wind Farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hou, Peng; Hu, Weihao; Zhang, Baohua

2016-01-01

which are related to electrical system topology. This paper proposed an optimized power dispatch strategy (OPD) for minimizing the levelized production cost (LPC) of a wind farm. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to obtain final solution for the optimization problem. Both regular shape......Maximizing the power production of offshore wind farms using proper control strategy has become an important issue for wind farm operators. However, the power transmitted to the onshore substation (OS) is not only related to the power production of each wind turbine (WT) but also the power losses...... and irregular shape wind farm are chosen for the case study. The proposed dispatch strategy is compared with two other control strategies. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed strategy....

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pham, H.

2002-01-01

This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature

Finite Time Merton Strategy under Drawdown Constraint: A Viscosity Solution Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elie, R.

2008-01-01

We consider the optimal consumption-investment problem under the drawdown constraint, i.e. the wealth process never falls below a fixed fraction of its running maximum. We assume that the risky asset is driven by the constant coefficients Black and Scholes model and we consider a general class of utility functions. On an infinite time horizon, Elie and Touzi (Preprint, [2006]) provided the value function as well as the optimal consumption and investment strategy in explicit form. In a more realistic setting, we consider here an agent optimizing its consumption-investment strategy on a finite time horizon. The value function interprets as the unique discontinuous viscosity solution of its corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. This leads to a numerical approximation of the value function and allows for a comparison with the explicit solution in infinite horizon

Optimal Spatial Harvesting Strategy and Symmetry-Breaking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurata, Kazuhiro; Shi Junping

2008-01-01

A reaction-diffusion model with logistic growth and constant effort harvesting is considered. By minimizing an intrinsic biological energy function, we obtain an optimal spatial harvesting strategy which will benefit the population the most. The symmetry properties of the optimal strategy are also discussed, and related symmetry preserving and symmetry breaking phenomena are shown with several typical examples of habitats

Optimization as investment decision support in a Swedish medium-sized iron foundry - A move beyond traditional energy auditing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thollander, Patrik; Mardan, Nawzad; Karlsson, Magnus

2009-01-01

Due to increased globalisation, industries are facing greater competition that is pressing companies into decreasing their expenses in order to increase their profits. As regards Swedish industry, it has been faced with substantial increases in energy prices in recent years. Barriers to energy efficiency such as imperfect information inhibit investments in energy efficiency measures, energy audits being one means of reducing barriers and overcoming imperfect information. However, an evaluation of such energy audits in Sweden reveals that it is chiefly low-cost measures that are undertaken as a result of an audit. Moreover, these audits often tend to focus on support processes such as ventilation, lighting, air compressors etc., while measures impacting production processes are often not as extensively covered, which underlines the need for further support in addition to energy audits. Decision support is practised in a variety of different disciplines such as optimization and simulation and the aim of this paper is to explore whether investment decision support practices may be used successfully towards small and medium-sized manufacturers in Sweden when complex production-related investment decisions are taken. The optimization results from the different cases, involving a foundry's investment in a new melting unit, indicate that with no electricity price fluctuations over the day, the investment seems sound as it lowers the overall energy costs. However, with fluctuating electricity prices, there are no large differences in energy costs between the option of retaining the existing five melting furnaces at the foundry and investing in a twin furnace and removing the holding furnaces - which was the initial investment plan for the foundry in the study. It would not have been possible to achieve this outcome without the use of investment decision support such as MIND. One of the main conclusions in this paper is that investment decision support, when strategic

Network analysis to detect common strategies in Italian foreign direct investment

Science.gov (United States)

De Masi, G.; Giovannetti, G.; Ricchiuti, G.

2013-03-01

In this paper we reconstruct and discuss the network of Italian firms investing abroad, exploiting information from complex network analysis. This method, detecting the key nodes of the system (both in terms of firms and countries of destination), allows us to single out the linkages among firms without ex-ante priors. Moreover, through the examination of affiliates’ economic activity, it allows us to highlight different internationalization strategies of “leaders” in different manufacturing sectors.

Market Power and Investment in Renewable Electricity Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Misir, Nihat

while incurring lower investment costs. We additionally find that highly convex investment cost greatly diminishes the impact of market power on the investment decisions. Furthermore, for both the strategic firm and the social planner, fixed baseload generation is preferable during low installed...... approach to evaluate the investment decisions. In our paper we do not only focus on the differences in costs for different technologies but also on the differences in operation of those technologies and how those differences impact the optimal investment decisions. In our model, the one-time investment...... decision requires the determination of demand shock trigger level, choice of technology and level of optimal capacity. We specifically investigate how the investment triggers, optimal capacities and technology choices change with the changes to the investment cost function, demand uncertainty and the level...

Optimal R&D Investments of the Firm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kort, P.M.

1996-01-01

This paper examines irreversible decisions on innovative activities where it takes time to complete an R&D project. The totala mountof R&D investments that the firm needs to undertake in order to obtain the breakthrough in the innovation process is uncertain. R&D investments are limited by the

Portfolio optimization with mean-variance model

Science.gov (United States)

Hoe, Lam Weng; Siew, Lam Weng

2016-06-01

Investors wish to achieve the target rate of return at the minimum level of risk in their investment. Portfolio optimization is an investment strategy that can be used to minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the target rate of return. The mean-variance model has been proposed in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model is an optimization model that aims to minimize the portfolio risk which is the portfolio variance. The objective of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using the mean-variance model. The data of this study consists of weekly returns of 20 component stocks of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI). The results of this study show that the portfolio composition of the stocks is different. Moreover, investors can get the return at minimum level of risk with the constructed optimal mean-variance portfolio.

A comparison of the economic benefits of centralized and distributed model predictive control strategies for optimal and sub-optimal mine dewatering system designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romero, Alberto; Millar, Dean; Carvalho, Monica; Maestre, José M.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

2015-01-01

Mine dewatering can represent up to 5% of the total energy demand of a mine, and is one of the mine systems that aim to guarantee safe operating conditions. As mines go deeper, dewatering pumping heads become bigger, potentially involving several lift stages. Greater depth does not only mean greater dewatering cost, but more complex systems that require more sophisticated control systems, especially if mine operators wish to gain benefits from demand response incentives that are becoming a routine part of electricity tariffs. This work explores a two stage economic optimization procedure of an underground mine dewatering system, comprising two lifting stages, each one including a pump station and a water reservoir. First, the system design is optimized considering hourly characteristic dewatering demands for twelve days, one day representing each month of the year to account for seasonal dewatering demand variations. This design optimization minimizes the annualized cost of the system, and therefore includes the investment costs in underground reservoirs. Reservoir size, as well as an hourly pumping operation plan are calculated for specific operating environments, defined by characteristic hourly electricity prices and water inflows (seepage and water use from production activities), at best known through historical observations for the previous year. There is no guarantee that the system design will remain optimal when it faces the water inflows and market determined electricity prices of the year ahead, or subsequent years ahead, because these remain unknown at design time. Consequently, the dewatering optimized system design is adopted subsequently as part of a Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy that adaptively maintains optimality during the operations phase. Centralized, distributed and non-centralized MPC strategies are explored. Results show that the system can be reliably controlled using any of these control strategies proposed. Under the operating

Optimal reactor strategy for commercializing fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaji, Kenji; Nagano, Koji

1988-01-01

In this paper, a fuel cycle optimization model developed for analyzing the condition of selecting fast breeder reactors in the optimal reactor strategy is described. By dividing the period of planning, 1966-2055, into nine ten-year periods, the model was formulated as a compact linear programming model. With the model, the best mix of reactor types as well as the optimal timing of reprocessing spent fuel from LWRs to minimize the total cost were found. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. Fast breeder reactors could be introduced in the optimal strategy when they can economically compete with LWRs with 30 year storage of spent fuel. In order that fast breeder reactors monopolize the new reactor market after the achievement of their technical availability, their capital cost should be less than 0.9 times as much as that of LWRs. When a certain amount of reprocessing commitment is assumed, the condition of employing fast breeder reactors in the optimal strategy is mitigated. In the optimal strategy, reprocessing is done just to meet plutonium demand, and the storage of spent fuel is selected to adjust the mismatch of plutonium production and utilization. The price hike of uranium ore facilitates the commercial adoption of fast breeder reactors. (Kako, I.)

Optimization of the investment casting process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Martinez-Hernandez

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Rapid prototyping is an important technique for manufacturing. This work refers to the manufacture of hollow patterns made of polymeric materials by rapid prototyping technologies for its use in the preparation of ceramic molds in the investment casting process. This work is focused on the development of a process for manufacturing patterns different from those that currently exist due to its hollow interior design, allowing its direct use in the fabrication of ceramic molds; avoiding cracking and fracture during the investment casting process, which is an important process for the foundry industry.

The effect of short recovery period investment on least-cost generation system expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yiqun He; David, A.K.; Fernando, P.N.

1995-01-01

The effect of the short recovery period of private investment on least-cost generation system expansion is analysed, and a trade-off method for generation system expansion, which gives consideration to both the least-cost strategy and the short recovery period of private investment, is presented. First, the optimal mix of generation units under a standard recovery period for all units is established, and then the surcharge, due to the difference between the short recovery period and the standard recovery period, is calculated and shared between all units. The former is an optimization to make best use of natural resources, and the latter is a trade-off method to spread the surcharge throughout the system. (Author)

Optimal control of anthracnose using mixed strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Fotsa Mbogne, David Jaures; Thron, Christopher

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose and study a spatial diffusion model for the control of anthracnose disease in a bounded domain. The model is a generalization of the one previously developed in [15]. We use the model to simulate two different types of control strategies against anthracnose disease. Strategies that employ chemical fungicides are modeled using a continuous control function; while strategies that rely on cultivational practices (such as pruning and removal of mummified fruits) are modeled with a control function which is discrete in time (though not in space). For comparative purposes, we perform our analyses for a spatially-averaged model as well as the space-dependent diffusion model. Under weak smoothness conditions on parameters we demonstrate the well-posedness of both models by verifying existence and uniqueness of the solution for the growth inhibition rate for given initial conditions. We also show that the set [0, 1] is positively invariant. We first study control by impulsive strategies, then analyze the simultaneous use of mixed continuous and pulse strategies. In each case we specify a cost functional to be minimized, and we demonstrate the existence of optimal control strategies. In the case of pulse-only strategies, we provide explicit algorithms for finding the optimal control strategies for both the spatially-averaged model and the space-dependent model. We verify the algorithms for both models via simulation, and discuss properties of the optimal solutions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Guidelines for integrating socially responsible investment in the investment process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, F.J.; Slager, A.

2009-01-01

Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) is of growing importance for institutional investors. Our analysis shows that SRI strategies can be grouped in ethically-based, investment-driven and value-ensuring objectives. We demonstrate that this categorization strengthens decisionmaking in SRI. Based on

Noise-dependent optimal strategies for quantum metrology

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zixin; Macchiavello, Chiara; Maccone, Lorenzo

2018-03-01

For phase estimation using qubits, we show that for some noise channels, the optimal entanglement-assisted strategy depends on the noise level. We note that there is a nontrivial crossover between the parallel-entangled strategy and the ancilla-assisted strategy: in the former the probes are all entangled; in the latter the probes are entangled with a noiseless ancilla but not among themselves. The transition can be explained by the fact that separable states are more robust against noise and therefore are optimal in the high-noise limit, but they are in turn outperformed by ancilla-assisted ones.

Time Consistent Strategies for Mean-Variance Asset-Liability Management Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui-qiang Ma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the optimal time consistent investment strategies in multiperiod asset-liability management problems under mean-variance criterion. By applying time consistent model of Chen et al. (2013 and employing dynamic programming technique, we derive two-time consistent policies for asset-liability management problems in a market with and without a riskless asset, respectively. We show that the presence of liability does affect the optimal strategy. More specifically, liability leads a parallel shift of optimal time-consistent investment policy. Moreover, for an arbitrarily risk averse investor (under the variance criterion with liability, the time-diversification effects could be ignored in a market with a riskless asset; however, it should be considered in a market without any riskless asset.

Optimal Inspection and Maintenance Strategies for Structural Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sommer, A. M.

The aim of this thesis is to give an overview of conventional and optimal reliability-based inspection and maintenance strategies and to examine for specific structures how the cost can be reduced and/or the safety can be improved by using optimal reliability-based inspection strategies....... For structures with several almost similar components it is suggested that individual inspection strategies should be determined for each component or a group of components based on the reliability of the actual component. The benefit of this procedure is assessed in connection with the structures considered....... Furthermore, in relation to the calculations performed the intention is to modify an existing program for determination of optimal inspection strategies. The main purpose of inspection and maintenance of structural systems is to prevent or delay damage or deterioration to protect people, environment...

Return models and dynamic asset allocation strategies

OpenAIRE

Shi, Wyanet Wen

2017-01-01

This thesis studies the design of optimal investment strategies. A strategy is considered optimal when it minimizes the variance of terminal portfolio wealth for a given level of expected terminal portfolio wealth, or equivalently, maximizes an investor's utility. We study this issue in two particular situations: when asset returns follow a continuous-time path-independent process, and when they follow a discrete-time path-dependent process. Continuous-time path-independent return mode...

Determinants of Discretionary Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. S. Sujit

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Theoretical and empirical studies have focused on discretionary investments such as research and development (R&D and advertisement as value-creating activities. This empirical research article examines the determinants of the discretionary investment policy of food sector firms in India. The study aims to analyze the impact of financial policies and firm characteristics on the discretionary investment strategy of the food industry firms. The article uses the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM to understand the drivers of discretionary investment policy of food sector firms. The study finds that investment policy of firms is a major determinant of profitability of food sector firms. Higher investments in capital expenditures and working capital result in higher profitability. Management efficiency significantly influences firm profitability. The results suggest that riskier firms in food sector might focus on R&D investments as a strategy to generate more cash flows. Size of firm is negatively related to R&D intensity. Smaller firms in food sector tend to invest more in R&D. The study does not provide evidence to suggest that profitable firms invest more in R&D activities.

Investment Strategy in an Inflationary Environment

OpenAIRE

Zvi Bodie

1981-01-01

This paper addresses the issue of how an investor concerned about the real rate of return on his investment portfolio should allocate his funds among four major asset classes: stocks, bonds, bills and commodity futures contracts. It employs the Markowitz mean-variance framework to derive estimates of the pre-tax, real risk-return tradeoff curve currently facing an investor in the U.S. capital markets. Some of the major findings are: 1) Bills are the cornerstone of any low-risk investment stra...

Optimal Advance Selling Strategy under Price Commitment

OpenAIRE

Chenhang Zeng

2012-01-01

This paper considers a two-period model with experienced consumers and inexperienced consumers. The retailer determines both advance selling price and regular selling price at the beginning of the first period. I show that advance selling weekly dominates no advance selling, and the optimal advance selling price may be at a discount, at a premium or at the regular selling price. To help the retailer choose the optimal pricing strategy, conditions for each possible advance selling strategy to ...

Irreversible investments revisited

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandal, Leif K.; Steinshamn, Stein I.; Hoff, Ayoe

2007-01-01

A multi-dimensional, non-linear dynamic model in continuous time is presented for the purpose of finding the optimal combination of exploitation and capital investment in optimal renewable resource management. Non-malleability of capital is incorporated in the model through an asymmetric cost......-function of investment, and investments can be both positive and negative. Exploitation is controlled through the utilisation rate of available capital. A novel feature in this model is that there are costs associated with the available capital whether it is utilised or not. And, in contrast to most of the previous...... literature, the state variables, namely the physical capital and the biological resource, enter the objective function. Due to the nonlinearities in this model some of the results are in sharp contrast to previous literature....

Tank Waste Remediation System optimized processing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slaathaug, E.J.; Boldt, A.L.; Boomer, K.D.; Galbraith, J.D.; Leach, C.E.; Waldo, T.L.

1996-03-01

This report provides an alternative strategy evolved from the current Hanford Site Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) programmatic baseline for accomplishing the treatment and disposal of the Hanford Site tank wastes. This optimized processing strategy performs the major elements of the TWRS Program, but modifies the deployment of selected treatment technologies to reduce the program cost. The present program for development of waste retrieval, pretreatment, and vitrification technologies continues, but the optimized processing strategy reuses a single facility to accomplish the separations/low-activity waste (LAW) vitrification and the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification processes sequentially, thereby eliminating the need for a separate HLW vitrification facility

The evolution of different maternal investment strategies in two closely related desert vertebrates

Science.gov (United States)

Ennen, Joshua R.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Averill-Murray, Roy C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Agha, Mickey; Loughran, Caleb; Tennant, Laura A.; Sinervo, Barry

2017-01-01

We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet-hedging theories in two North American desert-dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai, that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii, a strategy more consistent with the within-generation hypothesis arising out of bet-hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii, employs a bet-hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet-hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet-hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra- and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late-season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade-offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long-term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of

TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR U.S. PROCESSED FOOD FIRMS IN CHINA

OpenAIRE

Marchant, Mary A.; Saghaian, Sayed H.; Vickner, Steven S.

1999-01-01

This research examines the relationship between U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports of processed foods to China and identifies management strategies to enhance U.S. competitiveness. Two-stage least-squares empirical econometric results from a simultaneous equation system indicate that there exists a strong complementary relationship between U.S exports and FDI into China. Therefore, the appropriate managerial strategy to access Chinese processed foods markets is to increase overa...

Forecasting the Optimal Factors of Formation of the Population Savings as the Basis for Investment Resources of the Regional Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odintsova Tetiana M.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the optimal factors of formation of the population savings as the basis for investment resources of the regional economy. A factorial (nonlinear correlative-regression analysis of the formation of savings of the population of Ukraine was completed. On its basis a forecast of the optimal structure and volumes of formation of the population incomes was carried out taking into consideration impact of fundamental factors on these incomes. Such approach provides to identify the marginal volumes of tax burden, population savings, and capital investments, directed to economic growth.

Optimizing towing processes at airports

OpenAIRE

Du, Jia Yan

2015-01-01

This work addresses the optimization of push-back and towing processes at airports, as an important part of the turnaround process. A vehicle routing based scheduling model is introduced to find a cost optimal assignment of jobs to towing tractors in daily operations. A second model derives an investment strategy to optimize tractor fleet size and mix in the long-run. Column generation heuristics are proposed as solution procedures. The thesis concludes with a case study of a major European ...

Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Annoni, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Ryan N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fleming, Paul A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ning, Andrew [Brigham Young University

2017-05-01

Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.

Optimal Investment in Structured Bonds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jessen, Pernille; Jørgensen, Peter Løchte

2012-01-01

of the article is to provide possible explanations for the puzzle of why small retail investors hold structured bonds. The investment universe consists of a stock index, a risk-free bank account, and a structured bond containing an option written on another index. We apply expected utility maximization...

Effect of microbial enzyme allocation strategies on stoichiometry of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Wutzler, Thomas

2014-05-01

We explored different strategies of soil microbial community to invest resources into extracellular enzymes by conceptual modelling. Similar to the EEZY model by Moorhead et al. (2012), microbial community can invest into two separate pools of enzymes that depolymerize two different SOM pools. We show that with assuming that a fixed fraction of substrate uptake is allocated to enzymes, the microbial dynamics decouples from decomposition dynamics. We propose an alternative formulation where investment into enzymes is proportional to microbial biomass. Next, we show that the strategy of optimizing stoichiometry of decomposition flux according to microbial biomass stoichiometry yield less microbial growth than the strategy of optimizing revenue of the currently limiting element. However, both strategies result in better usage of the resources, i.e. less C overflow or N mineralization, than the strategy of equal allocation to both enzymes. Further, we discuss effects of those strategies on decomposition of SOM and priming at different time scales and discuss several abstractions from the detailed model dynamics for usage in larger scale models.

Controlled-risk foreign investment strategy can boost yields.

Science.gov (United States)

Simms, R A

2000-06-01

Healthcare organizations that have invested in the U.S. stock market have enjoyed high returns in recent years. After such a performance, many investment managers see little reason to investigate overseas markets, believing that the U.S. market will continue to be profitable and economic uncertainties make overseas markets too risky. However, in 1999, markets in Europe, Australia, and the Far East outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time in five years. In addition, signs such as mounting price/earnings ratios may indicate that the U.S. stock market will be less profitable than it has been in recent years. Consequently, investment managers should revisit the idea of international investing.

Replica Approach for Minimal Investment Risk with Cost

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2018-06-01

In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where an objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Hamiltonians in the Hopfield model and the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, show that we can analyze this portfolio optimization problem by using replica analysis, and derive the minimal investment risk with cost and the investment concentration of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we validate our proposed method through numerical simulations.

Randomly biased investments and the evolution of public goods on interdependent networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wei; Wu, Te; Li, Zhiwu; Wang, Long

2017-08-01

Deciding how to allocate resources between interdependent systems is significant to optimize efficiency. We study the effects of heterogeneous contribution, induced by such interdependency, on the evolution of cooperation, through implementing the public goods games on two-layer networks. The corresponding players on different layers try to share a fixed amount of resources as the initial investment properly. The symmetry breaking of investments between players located on different layers is able to either prevent investments from, or extract them out of the deadlock. Results show that a moderate investment heterogeneity is best favorable for the evolution of cooperation, and random allocation of investment bias suppresses the cooperators at a wide range of the investment bias and the enhancement effect. Further studies on time evolution with different initial strategy configurations show that the non-interdependent cooperators along the interface of interdependent cooperators also are an indispensable factor in facilitating cooperative behavior. Our main results are qualitatively unchanged even diversifying investment bias that is subject to uniform distribution. Our study may shed light on the understanding of the origin of cooperative behavior on interdependent networks.

Switching strategies to optimize search

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlesinger, Michael F

2016-01-01

Search strategies are explored when the search time is fixed, success is probabilistic and the estimate for success can diminish with time if there is not a successful result. Under the time constraint the problem is to find the optimal time to switch a search strategy or search location. Several variables are taken into account, including cost, gain, rate of success if a target is present and the probability that a target is present. (paper: interdisciplinary statistical mechanics)

Optimal tax depreciation under a progressive tax system

OpenAIRE

Wielhouwer, J.L.; De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Kort, P.M.

2002-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the effect of a progressive tax system on optimal tax depreciation. By using dynamic optimization we show that an optimal strategy exists, and we provide an analytical expression for the optimal depreciation charges. Depreciation charges initially decrease over time, and after a number of periods the firm enters a steady state where depreciation is constant and equal to replacement investments. This way, the optimal solution trades off the benefits of accelerated...

Developing an Integrated Design Strategy for Chip Layout Optimization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wits, Wessel Willems; Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; van Vliet, Frank Edward; te Riele, G.J.

2011-01-01

This paper presents an integrated design strategy for chip layout optimization. The strategy couples both electric and thermal aspects during the conceptual design phase to improve chip performances; thermal management being one of the major topics. The layout of the chip circuitry is optimized

Czech OFDI: investment strategies and motivation to invest abroad

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Zemplinerová, Alena

2012-01-01

Roč. 50, č. 2 (2012), s. 22-40 ISSN 0012-8775 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) OC10062; GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/2362 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : outward foreign direct investment * geographical and sectoral structures * company case studies Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.211, year: 2012

A strategy for investment in space resource utilization

Science.gov (United States)

Mendell, Wendell W.

During the first quarter of the next Century, space transportation systems will be capable of routine flights of humans and cargo to the Moon. The general acceptance of permanent human presence in space, as exemplified by at least two manned stations in LEO at that time, will lead to one or more staffed outposts on the Moon. Whether such outposts evolve into sustained, growing settlements will depend, in part, on whether the economic context attracts substantial private investment. A planetary surface provides a material and gravitational environment distinct from that of an orbiting space station and thus provides a setting familiar to non-aerospace sectors of terrestrial industry. Examination of current trends in terms of historical processes which operate on new frontiers suggests that the limited markets and unfamiliar technologies associated with space commercialization today may change dramatically in 20 years when lunar resources are accessible. However, the uncertainty and vagueness of such projections discourages investment at a useful scale unless a strategy for technology development can be implemented which provides tangible and marketable benefits in the intermediate term. At the present time technologies can be identified (a) that will be required (and therefore valuable) at the time of lunar settlement and (b) whose development can be planned to yield marketable intermediate products on Earth. Formation of pre-competitive, collaborative research consortia in the industrial sector could reduce technical and economic risk in the early stages and could promote a favorable political environment for the future growth of space activities.

Advances in Consumption-Investment Problems with Applications to Pension

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kronborg, Morten Tolver

into a direct loss and an indirect loss. The direct loss is due to paying investment costs, and the indirect loss is due to lost investment opportunities, caused by the investors risk aversion. The indirect loss is measured by an indifference compensation ratio, defined as the minimum relative increase...... wealth, while being restricted to keep wealth above a given barrier. The problem is solved by use of the Martingale Method for stochastic optimization problems in complete markets. The solution becomes an OBPI (option based portfolio insurance) strategy where the option bought to protect against losses...... in the initial wealth the investor demands in compensation to accept incurring investment costs of a certain size. The magnitude of the indirect loss turns out to be between the same as and half of the expected direct loss, i.e. surprisingly big. Finally, a related analysis allows us to conclude that the size...

Optimal Stochastic Advertising Strategies for the U.S. Beef Industry

OpenAIRE

Kun C. Lee; Stanley Schraufnagel; Earl O. Heady

1982-01-01

An important decision variable in the promotional strategy for the beef sector is the optimal level of advertising expenditures over time. Optimal stochastic and deterministic advertising expenditures are derived for the U.S. beef industry for the period `1966 through 1980. They are compared with historical levels and gains realized by optimal advertising strategies are measured. Finally, the optimal advertising expenditures in the future are forecasted.

Social Investment in Times of Crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Prandini, Riccardo; Orlandini, Matteo; Guerra, Alice

The purpose of this report is to analyse and understand whether and how, in the last twenty years, the EU member countries have adopted welfare systems which incorporate aspects of social investment. The quantitative and comparative study is focused on social investment strategies across 28...... European member states. The aim is to map out and explore the effectiveness of different social investment strategies. An overview of macro-level welfare performance indicators consist of a review of available macro-indicators to assess welfare performance in the light of social investment decisions....

Micro-energy markets: The role of a consumer preference pricing strategy on microgrid energy investment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faber, Isaac; Lane, William; Pak, Wayne; Prakel, Mary; Rocha, Cheyne; Farr, John V.

2014-01-01

The fragility of the modern electrical grid is exposed during random events such as storms, sporting events and often simply routine operation. Even with these obvious flaws large utilities and governments have been slow to create robust solutions due to the need of large capital investments required to address the issues. In this light creative economic and engineering solutions are desired to finance the needed upgrades. Driven by the requirement to have uninterrupted power that meets customers desires this research focuses on linking consumer preferences to a type of energy source in order to best fulfill stakeholder priorities. This approach is in contrast to the current and prevalent lowest cost methods to producing and consuming energy. This research yields a preliminary ‘micro-energy market’ that consists of an energy network architecture, pricing methodology and mathematical template which quantifies potential economic inefficiencies. If exploited these inefficiencies could be used to fund investment into various energy sources that provide unmet needs such as reduced carbon footprint, renewable, quality, and local production. These inefficiencies can be best exploited within the structure of a microgrid. Identification of opportunities on this smaller scale can provide an incentive for producers to develop a robust set of production facilities of varying size and characteristics to meet the consumer preferences. A stochastic optimization model of a microgrid implementation for a small military installation is used to evaluate the effects of this pricing methodology. The energy production of the resulting microgrid would be optimized to meet consumer preferences and minimize economic inefficiency. - Highlights: • This research focuses on linking consumer preferences to a type of energy source. • Pricing methodology quantifies strategic investments in alternative sources. • Inefficiencies could be used to fund investment into various energy sources

Emergency strategy optimization for the environmental control system in manned spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Guoxiang; Pang, Liping; Liu, Meng; Fang, Yufeng; Zhang, Helin

2018-02-01

It is very important for a manned environmental control system (ECS) to be able to reconfigure its operation strategy in emergency conditions. In this article, a multi-objective optimization is established to design the optimal emergency strategy for an ECS in an insufficient power supply condition. The maximum ECS lifetime and the minimum power consumption are chosen as the optimization objectives. Some adjustable key variables are chosen as the optimization variables, which finally represent the reconfigured emergency strategy. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II is adopted to solve this multi-objective optimization problem. Optimization processes are conducted at four different carbon dioxide partial pressure control levels. The study results show that the Pareto-optimal frontiers obtained from this multi-objective optimization can represent the relationship between the lifetime and the power consumption of the ECS. Hence, the preferred emergency operation strategy can be recommended for situations when there is suddenly insufficient power.

Optimal investment decisions with a liability: the case of defined benefit pension plans

OpenAIRE

Josa-Fombellida, Ricardo; Rincón-Zapatero, Juan Pablo

2006-01-01

In this paper the optimal management of an aggregated dynamic pension fund is studied. To cover the promised liabilities to workers at the age of retirement, the plan sponsor continuously manages time-varying funds. He or she can choose the rate of contribution to the fund, the investment in a given number of risky assets, and a security with constant rate of return. The problem of maximizing the probability that the fund assets achieve some prescribed goal before some undesirable lower value...

Optimization strategies for complex engineering applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eldred, M.S.

1998-02-01

LDRD research activities have focused on increasing the robustness and efficiency of optimization studies for computationally complex engineering problems. Engineering applications can be characterized by extreme computational expense, lack of gradient information, discrete parameters, non-converging simulations, and nonsmooth, multimodal, and discontinuous response variations. Guided by these challenges, the LDRD research activities have developed application-specific techniques, fundamental optimization algorithms, multilevel hybrid and sequential approximate optimization strategies, parallel processing approaches, and automatic differentiation and adjoint augmentation methods. This report surveys these activities and summarizes the key findings and recommendations.

Optimal Allocation of Generalized Power Sources in Distribution Network Based on Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Ran

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Optimal allocation of generalized power sources in distribution network is researched. A simple index of voltage stability is put forward. Considering the investment and operation benefit, the stability of voltage and the pollution emissions of generalized power sources in distribution network, a multi-objective optimization planning model is established. A multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the optimal model. In order to improve the global search ability, the strategies of fast non-dominated sorting, elitism and crowding distance are adopted in this algorithm. Finally, tested the model and algorithm by IEEE-33 node system to find the best configuration of GP, the computed result shows that with the generalized power reasonable access to the active distribution network, the investment benefit and the voltage stability of the system is improved, and the proposed algorithm has better global search capability.

Development of an investment decision tool for aged nuclear power plants under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takashima, Ryuta; Nagano, Koji

2010-01-01

The nuclear power generating stock in Japan, which provides 30% or more of the nationwide electricity supply in recent years, is heading into the era of plant aging as those units over 40 years of operation emerge in 2010 and onward. Under accumulating uncertainties surrounding investment decisions, one of the key questions is how best to manage the existing capacity by choosing a wisest option among dismantling, refurbishment, and replacement. This report attempts to develop a methodology to analyze investment decision on aged nuclear units based on real-option analysis, and then presents illustrative simulation runs to demonstrate functions of the numerical models. Major findings are summarized as follows: a) When compared with the conventional net present value (NPV) method, the proposed model is capable to deal with uncertainty explicitly by taking volatility in the formula. Also, for the replacement option, one can choose optimal timings of the dismantling the new plant independently. b) As the profitability increases, the model suggests different investment option as optimal, starting from dismantling to replacement, further to refurbishment, and again to replacement as the most basic pattern. Additionally, where two of the strategies have similar values, postponement of both decisions can be optimal. Through these exercises, the proposed methodology proved itself capable for raising valuable implications to investment decisions in managing the production fleet. (author)

Carbon capture and storage-Investment strategies for the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rammerstorfer, Margarethe; Eisl, Roland

2011-01-01

The following article deals with real options modeling for investing into carbon capture and storage technologies. Herein, we derive two separate models. The first model incorporates a constant convenience yield and dividend for the investment project. In the second model, the convenience yield is allowed to follow a mean reverting process which seems to be more realistic, but also increases the model's complexity. Both frameworks are to be solved numerically. Therefore, we calibrate our model with respect to empirical data and provide insights into the models' sensitivity toward the chosen parameter values. We found that given the recently observable prices for carbon dioxide, an investment into C O2-storage facilities is not profitable. - Highlights: → Real options modeling for investing into carbon capture and storage technologies. → Given the recently observable prices for carbon dioxide, an investment into CO 2 -storage facilities is not profitable. → Investment decision is mainly affected by risk free rate and volatility.

Multi-Objective Optimization of Start-up Strategy for Pumped Storage Units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinjiao Hou

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a multi-objective optimization method for the start-up strategy of pumped storage units (PSU for the first time. In the multi-objective optimization method, the speed rise time and the overshoot during the process of the start-up are taken as the objectives. A precise simulation platform is built for simulating the transient process of start-up, and for calculating the objectives based on the process. The Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (MOPSO is adopted to optimize the widely applied start-up strategies based on one-stage direct guide vane control (DGVC, and two-stage DGVC. Based on the Pareto Front obtained, a multi-objective decision-making method based on the relative objective proximity is used to sort the solutions in the Pareto Front. Start-up strategy optimization for a PSU of a pumped storage power station in Jiangxi Province in China is conducted in experiments. The results show that: (1 compared with the single objective optimization, the proposed multi-objective optimization of start-up strategy not only greatly shortens the speed rise time and the speed overshoot, but also makes the speed curve quickly stabilize; (2 multi-objective optimization of strategy based on two-stage DGVC achieves better solution for a quick and smooth start-up of PSU than that of the strategy based on one-stage DGVC.

75 FR 55372 - Tudor Employee Investment Fund LLC and Tudor Investment Corporation; Notice of Application

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-10

... management business, the Fund Investors will be able to understand and evaluate the attendant risks... Investment Fund (other than investment objectives and strategies and form of organization) (the ``Subsequent... will operate as a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. Each Fund will be an...

Mixed integer evolution strategies for parameter optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Rui; Emmerich, Michael T M; Eggermont, Jeroen; Bäck, Thomas; Schütz, M; Dijkstra, J; Reiber, J H C

2013-01-01

Evolution strategies (ESs) are powerful probabilistic search and optimization algorithms gleaned from biological evolution theory. They have been successfully applied to a wide range of real world applications. The modern ESs are mainly designed for solving continuous parameter optimization problems. Their ability to adapt the parameters of the multivariate normal distribution used for mutation during the optimization run makes them well suited for this domain. In this article we describe and study mixed integer evolution strategies (MIES), which are natural extensions of ES for mixed integer optimization problems. MIES can deal with parameter vectors consisting not only of continuous variables but also with nominal discrete and integer variables. Following the design principles of the canonical evolution strategies, they use specialized mutation operators tailored for the aforementioned mixed parameter classes. For each type of variable, the choice of mutation operators is governed by a natural metric for this variable type, maximal entropy, and symmetry considerations. All distributions used for mutation can be controlled in their shape by means of scaling parameters, allowing self-adaptation to be implemented. After introducing and motivating the conceptual design of the MIES, we study the optimality of the self-adaptation of step sizes and mutation rates on a generalized (weighted) sphere model. Moreover, we prove global convergence of the MIES on a very general class of problems. The remainder of the article is devoted to performance studies on artificial landscapes (barrier functions and mixed integer NK landscapes), and a case study in the optimization of medical image analysis systems. In addition, we show that with proper constraint handling techniques, MIES can also be applied to classical mixed integer nonlinear programming problems.

DEA-BASED INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

OpenAIRE

Margareta Gardijan; Vedran Kojić

2012-01-01

This paper describes the DEA-based investment strategy for constructing of a stock portfolio in the Croatian stock market. The relative efficiency of the DMUs, which are in this case the selected stocks from Zagreb Stock Exchange, is obtained from the output oriented CCR and BCC models. The set of inputs consists of risk measures, namely return variance, Value at Risk (VaR) and beta coefficient $(\\beta)$, while monthly return represents an output. Following the „efficiency scores“, obtained f...

Optimal investment in a portfolio of HIV prevention programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaric, G S; Brandeau, M L

2001-01-01

In this article, the authors determine the optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds and investigate the impact of different allocation methods on health outcomes. The authors present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of HIV prevention funds that maximizes quality-adjusted life years (or life years) gained or HIV infections averted in a population over a specified time horizon. They apply the model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among 3 types of HIV prevention programs in a population of injection drug users and nonusers: needle exchange programs, methadone maintenance treatment, and condom availability programs. For each prevention program, the authors estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in risky behavior. The authors determine the optimal allocation of funds for both objective functions for a high-prevalence population and a low-prevalence population. They also consider the allocation of funds under several common rules of thumb that are used to allocate HIV prevention resources. It is shown that simpler allocation methods (e.g., allocation based on HIV incidence or notions of equity among population groups) may lead to alloctions that do not yield the maximum health benefit. The optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds in a population depends on HIV prevalence and incidence, the objective function, the production functions for the prevention programs, and other factors. Consideration of cost, equity, and social and political norms may be important when allocating HIV prevention funds. The model presented in this article can help decision makers determine the health consequences of different allocations of funds.

The Role of Inflation-Indexed Bond in Optimal Management of Defined Contribution Pension Plan During the Decumulation Phase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyi Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the optimal investment strategy for a defined contribution (DC pension plan during the decumulation phase which is risk-averse and pays close attention to inflation risk. The plan aims to maximize the expected constant relative risk aversion (CRRA utility from the terminal real wealth by investing the fund in a financial market consisting of an inflation-indexed bond, an ordinary zero coupon bond and a risk-free asset. We derive the optimal investment strategy in closed-form using the dynamic programming approach by solving the related Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB equation. The results reveal that, with any level of the parameters, an inflation-indexed bond has significant advantage to hedge inflation risk.

Sensitivity of woody carbon stocks to bark investment strategy in Neotropical savannas and forests

Science.gov (United States)

Trugman, Anna T.; Medvigy, David; Hoffmann, William A.; Pellegrini, Adam F. A.

2018-01-01

Fire frequencies are changing in Neotropical savannas and forests as a result of forest fragmentation and increasing drought. Such changes in fire regime and climate are hypothesized to destabilize tropical carbon storage, but there has been little consideration of the widespread variability in tree fire tolerance strategies. To test how aboveground carbon stocks change with fire frequency and composition of plants with different fire tolerance strategies, we update the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) with (i) a fire survivorship module based on tree bark thickness (a key fire-tolerance trait across woody plants in savannas and forests), and (ii) plant functional types representative of trees in the region. With these updates, the model is better able to predict how fire frequency affects population demography and aboveground woody carbon. Simulations illustrate that the high survival rate of thick-barked, large trees reduces carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, with high investment in bark being particularly important in reducing losses in the wettest sites. Additionally, in landscapes that frequently burn, bark investment can broaden the range of climate and fire conditions under which savannas occur by reducing the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss. These results highlight that tropical vegetation dynamics depend not only on rainfall and changing fire frequencies but also on tree fire survival strategy. Further, our results indicate that fire survival strategy is fundamentally important in regulating tree size demography in ecosystems exposed to fire, which increases the preservation of aboveground carbon stocks and the coexistence of different plant functional groups.

REGULATORY POLICY AND OPTIMIZATION OF INVESTMENT RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN THE MODEL OF FUNCTIONING OF RECREATION INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna Shevchenko

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The research objective is the rationale of the theoretical and methodical approach concerning the improvement of regulatory policy as well as the process of distribution of financial investments using the model of the functioning of a recreational sector of the national economy. The methodology of the study includes the use of optimal control theory for the model formation of the functioning of the recreational industry as well as determining the behaviour of regulatory authorities and capabilities to optimize the allocation of investment resources in the recreational sector of the national economy. Results. The issue of equilibration of regulatory policy in the recreational sector of the national economy is actualized, including the question of targeted distribution of state and external financial investments. Also, it is proved that regulatory policy should establish the frameworks that on the one hand, do not allow public authorities to exercise extra influence on the economy of recreation, on the other hand, to keep the behaviour of the recreational business entities within the limits of normal socio-economic activity – on the basis of analysis of the continuum “recreation – work” by means of modified Brennan-Buchanan model. It is revealed that even with the condition of the tax reduction, the situation when the population resting less and works more than in the background of a developed economy is observed. However, according to the optimistic forecast, eventually on condition when the economy is emerging from the shade, we will obtain an official mode of the work in which, while maintaining taxes on proposed more advantageous for the population level, ultimately the ratio leisure and work will be established which is corresponding to the principles of sustainable development. Practical value. On the basis of methodical principles of the theory of optimal control, the model of the functioning of the recreational industry under the

An asymmetric parental investment conflict with continuous strategy sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Yaniv, Osnat

2005-12-07

In the parental investment conflict each of the sexes decides how much to invest in its brood, where its decision influences both sexes' fitness. In nature, each species is usually characterized by a common parental care pattern, male-only care, female-only care or biparental care. A possible way for understanding the factors that have led each species to adopt its unique parental care pattern is to analyse a male's and a female's decision process using a game-theoretical model. This paper suggests a two-stage game-theoretical model with two types of players, male and female. During the game each parent makes three decisions. The interval between the beginning of the game, i.e. after mating and having offspring, and the moment a parent starts to care for them is a random variable. Thus, in the first stage a parent chooses the cumulative probability distribution of this interval, and its amount of parental care. In the second stage the other parent chooses its probability for cooperation. It is assumed that as long as parental care is not provided the offspring are at risk, and that parental caring accrues a different cost for each sex. We compute the Evolutionary Stable Strategies (ESS) under payoff-relevant asymmetry, and show that uniparental and biparental care are possible ESS. We also characterize cases where the sex having the lower cost "forces" the sex having the higher cost to care and vice versa.

Trophic strategies of unicellular plankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chakraborty, Subhendu; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Andersen, Ken Haste

2017-01-01

. To this end, we develop and calibrate a trait-based model for unicellular planktonic organisms characterized by four traits: cell size and investments in phototrophy, nutrient uptake, and phagotrophy. We use the model to predict how optimal trophic strategies depend on cell size under various environmental...... unicellulars are colimited by organic carbon and nutrients, and only large photoautotrophs and smaller mixotrophs are nutrient limited; (2) trophic strategy is bottom-up selected by the environment, while optimal size is top-down selected by predation. The focus on cell size and trophic strategies facilitates......Unicellular plankton employ trophic strategies ranging from pure photoautotrophs over mixotrophy to obligate heterotrophs (phagotrophs), with cell sizes from 10-8 to 1 μg C. A full understanding of how trophic strategy and cell size depend on resource environment and predation is lacking...

How to manage future groundwater resource of China under climate change and urbanization: An optimal stage investment design from modern portfolio theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, Shanshan; Liang, Jie; Zeng, Guangming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Chang; Yuan, Yujie; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Ping; Liu, Jiayu; Huang, Lu

2015-11-15

Groundwater management in China has been facing challenges from both climate change and urbanization and is considered as a national priority nowadays. However, unprecedented uncertainty exists in future scenarios making it difficult to formulate management planning paradigms. In this paper, we apply modern portfolio theory (MPT) to formulate an optimal stage investment of groundwater contamination remediation in China. This approach generates optimal weights of investment to each stage of the groundwater management and helps maximize expected return while minimizing overall risk in the future. We find that the efficient frontier of investment displays an upward-sloping shape in risk-return space. The expected value of groundwater vulnerability index increases from 0.6118 to 0.6230 following with the risk of uncertainty increased from 0.0118 to 0.0297. If management investment is constrained not to exceed certain total cost until 2050 year, the efficient frontier could help decision makers make the most appropriate choice on the trade-off between risk and return. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A strategy for optimizing item-pool management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ariel, A.; van der Linden, Willem J.; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

2006-01-01

Item-pool management requires a balancing act between the input of new items into the pool and the output of tests assembled from it. A strategy for optimizing item-pool management is presented that is based on the idea of a periodic update of an optimal blueprint for the item pool to tune item

Optimal knockout strategies in genome-scale metabolic networks using particle swarm optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Nair, Govind; Jungreuthmayer, Christian; Zanghellini, Jürgen

2017-02-01

Knockout strategies, particularly the concept of constrained minimal cut sets (cMCSs), are an important part of the arsenal of tools used in manipulating metabolic networks. Given a specific design, cMCSs can be calculated even in genome-scale networks. We would however like to find not only the optimal intervention strategy for a given design but the best possible design too. Our solution (PSOMCS) is to use particle swarm optimization (PSO) along with the direct calculation of cMCSs from the stoichiometric matrix to obtain optimal designs satisfying multiple objectives. To illustrate the working of PSOMCS, we apply it to a toy network. Next we show its superiority by comparing its performance against other comparable methods on a medium sized E. coli core metabolic network. PSOMCS not only finds solutions comparable to previously published results but also it is orders of magnitude faster. Finally, we use PSOMCS to predict knockouts satisfying multiple objectives in a genome-scale metabolic model of E. coli and compare it with OptKnock and RobustKnock. PSOMCS finds competitive knockout strategies and designs compared to other current methods and is in some cases significantly faster. It can be used in identifying knockouts which will force optimal desired behaviors in large and genome scale metabolic networks. It will be even more useful as larger metabolic models of industrially relevant organisms become available.

Optimal generator bidding strategies for power and ancillary services

Science.gov (United States)

Morinec, Allen G.

As the electric power industry transitions to a deregulated market, power transactions are made upon price rather than cost. Generator companies are interested in maximizing their profits rather than overall system efficiency. A method to equitably compensate generation providers for real power, and ancillary services such as reactive power and spinning reserve, will ensure a competitive market with an adequate number of suppliers. Optimizing the generation product mix during bidding is necessary to maximize a generator company's profits. The objective of this research work is to determine and formulate appropriate optimal bidding strategies for a generation company in both the energy and ancillary services markets. These strategies should incorporate the capability curves of their generators as constraints to define the optimal product mix and price offered in the day-ahead and real time spot markets. In order to achieve such a goal, a two-player model was composed to simulate market auctions for power generation. A dynamic game methodology was developed to identify Nash Equilibria and Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibria solutions as optimal generation bidding strategies for two-player non-cooperative variable-sum matrix games with incomplete information. These games integrated the generation product mix of real power, reactive power, and spinning reserve with the generators's capability curves as constraints. The research includes simulations of market auctions, where strategies were tested for generators with different unit constraints, costs, types of competitors, strategies, and demand levels. Studies on the capability of large hydrogen cooled synchronous generators were utilized to derive useful equations that define the exact shape of the capability curve from the intersections of the arcs defined by the centers and radial vectors of the rotor, stator, and steady-state stability limits. The available reactive reserve and spinning reserve were calculated given a

Intelligent fault recognition strategy based on adaptive optimized multiple centers

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan-Feng; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2018-06-01

For the recognition principle based optimized single center, one important issue is that the data with nonlinear separatrix cannot be recognized accurately. In order to solve this problem, a novel recognition strategy based on adaptive optimized multiple centers is proposed in this paper. This strategy recognizes the data sets with nonlinear separatrix by the multiple centers. Meanwhile, the priority levels are introduced into the multi-objective optimization, including recognition accuracy, the quantity of optimized centers, and distance relationship. According to the characteristics of various data, the priority levels are adjusted to ensure the quantity of optimized centers adaptively and to keep the original accuracy. The proposed method is compared with other methods, including support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and Bayesian classifier. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy has the same or even better recognition ability on different distribution characteristics of data.

Optimal fuel inventory strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caspary, P.J.; Hollibaugh, J.B.; Licklider, P.L.; Patel, K.P.

1990-01-01

In an effort to maintain their competitive edge, most utilities are reevaluating many of their conventional practices and policies in an effort to further minimize customer revenue requirements without sacrificing system reliability. Over the past several years, Illinois Power has been rethinking its traditional fuel inventory strategies, recognizing that coal supplies are competitive and plentiful and that carrying charges on inventory are expensive. To help the Company achieve one of its strategic corporate goals, an optimal fuel inventory study was performed for its five major coal-fired generating stations. The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe Illinois Power's system and past practices concerning coal inventories, highlight the analytical process behind the optimal fuel inventory study, and discuss some of the recent experiences affecting coal deliveries and economic dispatch

Model-based optimization strategy of chiller driven liquid desiccant dehumidifier with genetic algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xinli; Cai, Wenjian; Lu, Jiangang; Sun, Youxian; Zhao, Lei

2015-01-01

This study presents a model-based optimization strategy for an actual chiller driven dehumidifier of liquid desiccant dehumidification system operating with lithium chloride solution. By analyzing the characteristics of the components, energy predictive models for the components in the dehumidifier are developed. To minimize the energy usage while maintaining the outlet air conditions at the pre-specified set-points, an optimization problem is formulated with an objective function, the constraints of mechanical limitations and components interactions. Model-based optimization strategy using genetic algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal set-points for desiccant solution temperature and flow rate, to minimize the energy usage in the dehumidifier. Experimental studies on an actual system are carried out to compare energy consumption between the proposed optimization and the conventional strategies. The results demonstrate that energy consumption using the proposed optimization strategy can be reduced by 12.2% in the dehumidifier operation. - Highlights: • Present a model-based optimization strategy for energy saving in LDDS. • Energy predictive models for components in dehumidifier are developed. • The Optimization strategy are applied and tested in an actual LDDS. • Optimization strategy can achieve energy savings by 12% during operation

Growth or reproduction: emergence of an evolutionary optimal strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grilli, J; Suweis, S; Maritan, A

2013-01-01

Modern ecology has re-emphasized the need for a quantitative understanding of the original ‘survival of the fittest theme’ based on analysis of the intricate trade-offs between competing evolutionary strategies that characterize the evolution of life. This is key to the understanding of species coexistence and ecosystem diversity under the omnipresent constraint of limited resources. In this work we propose an agent-based model replicating a community of interacting individuals, e.g. plants in a forest, where all are competing for the same finite amount of resources and each competitor is characterized by a specific growth–reproduction strategy. We show that such an evolution dynamics drives the system towards a stationary state characterized by an emergent optimal strategy, which in turn depends on the amount of available resources the ecosystem can rely on. We find that the share of resources used by individuals is power-law distributed with an exponent directly related to the optimal strategy. The model can be further generalized to devise optimal strategies in social and economical interacting systems dynamics. (paper)

Practical operation strategies for pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) utilising electricity price arbitrage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Connolly, D.; Lund, H.; Finn, P.; Mathiesen, B.V.; Leahy, M.

2011-01-01

In this paper, three practical operation strategies (24Optimal, 24Prognostic, and 24Hsitrocial) are compared to the optimum profit feasible for a PHES facility with a 360 MW pump, 300 MW turbine, and a 2 GWh storage utilising price arbitrage on 13 electricity spot markets. The results indicate that almost all (∼97%) of the profits can be obtained by a PHES facility when it is optimised using the 24Optimal strategy developed, which optimises the energy storage based on the day-ahead electricity prices. However, to maximise profits with the 24Optimal strategy, the day-ahead electricity prices must be the actual prices which the PHES facility is charged or the PHES operator must have very accurate price predictions. Otherwise, the predicted profit could be significantly reduced and even become a loss. Finally, using the 24Optimal strategy, the PHES profit can surpass the annual investment repayments required. However, over the 5-year period investigated (2005-2009) the annual profit from the PHES facility varied by more than 50% on five out of six electricity markets considered. Considering the 40-year lifetime of PHES, even with low investment costs, a low interest rate, and a suitable electricity market, PHES is a risky investment without a more predictable profit. - Highlights: → Electricity generators typically operate on a market, including energy storage. → This paper assesses how energy storage can maximise its profits on a market. → Four operating strategies are assessed on 13 markets using a case study.→ One operating strategy achieves 97% of the profits feasible.→ However, the profit varies a lot depending on the market and capital costs.

Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, Anindya; Kojima, Satoshi

2012-01-01

The conventional pricing mechanism used for electricity systematically hides huge investment risks which are embedded in the overall cost of production. Although consumers are often unaware of these risks, they present a large financial burden on the economy. This study applies the portfolio optimization concepts from the field of finance to demonstrate the scope of greater utilization of renewable energies (RE) while reducing the embedded investment risk in the conventional electricity sector and its related financial burden. This study demonstrates that RE investment can compensate for the risks associated with the total input costs; such costs being external volatilities of fossil fuel prices, capital costs, operating and maintenance costs and the carbon costs. By means of example, this case study shows that Japan could in theory obtain up to 9% of its electricity supply from green sources, as compared to the present 1.37%, based on the utilization of a portfolio risk-analysis evaluation. Explicit comparison of the monetary values of the investment risks of conventional and renewable energy sources shows that renewable energies have high market competitiveness. The study concludes with a recommendation that, as a business objective, investors would benefit by focusing on electricity supply portfolio risk minimization instead of cost. This could also inherently increase the supply of renewable energy in the market. - Research highlights: ►Energy sector investors should not be bothered only about the absolute cost figures of the input factors like fossil fuels but should also be careful about the fluctuation of their costs while making the investment decisions. ►Inclusion of renewable energy in the investment portfolio can increase the cost apparently but can reduce the risk hedging costs, too. ►International carbon price may not be a good factor to encourage renewable energy investment in the market.

Work environment investments: outcomes from three cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Rydell, Alexis; Andersson, Ing-Marie

2017-09-27

Work environment investments are important in order to create a healthy and safe workplace. This article presents findings from a seven-step interventions process aimed at examining and following-up work environment investments in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with a particular focus on air contaminants. Three different cases were analyzed and included in the study: (a) an educational center for welding; (b) a paint station in furniture manufacturing; (c) a joinery in furniture manufacturing. The results show that the work environment investments were highly appreciated by the employees and managers, but at the same time the investment could be optimized through markedly decreased exposure levels for the worker. Factors such as follow-ups of the investment, education and training in how to use the equipment, worker involvement in the process and leadership engagement are important in order to optimize work environment investments.

Optimal intermittent search strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rojo, F; Budde, C E; Wio, H S

2009-01-01

We study the search kinetics of a single fixed target by a set of searchers performing an intermittent random walk, jumping between different internal states. Exploiting concepts of multi-state and continuous-time random walks we have calculated the survival probability of a target up to time t, and have 'optimized' (minimized) it with regard to the transition probability among internal states. Our model shows that intermittent strategies always improve target detection, even for simple diffusion states of motion

Investment Strategies Used as Spectroscopy of Financial Markets Reveal New Stylized Facts

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Mu, Guo-Hua; Chen, Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This enormous dataset allows us to compare (i) a closed national market (A-shares) with an international market (B-shares), (ii) individuals and institutions, and (iii) real traders to random strategies with respect to timing that share otherwise all other characteristics. We find in general that more trading results in smaller net return due to trading frictions, with the exception that the net return is independent of the trading frequency for A-share individual traders. We unveiled quantitative power laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by traders. Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible inefficiencies of these financial markets. PMID:21935403

Investment strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Mu, Guo-Hua; Chen, Wei; Sornette, Didier

2011-01-01

We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This enormous dataset allows us to compare (i) a closed national market (A-shares) with an international market (B-shares), (ii) individuals and institutions, and (iii) real traders to random strategies with respect to timing that share otherwise all other characteristics. We find in general that more trading results in smaller net return due to trading frictions, with the exception that the net return is independent of the trading frequency for A-share individual traders. We unveiled quantitative power laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by traders. Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible inefficiencies of these financial markets.

Investment strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Xing Zhou

Full Text Available We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This enormous dataset allows us to compare (i a closed national market (A-shares with an international market (B-shares, (ii individuals and institutions, and (iii real traders to random strategies with respect to timing that share otherwise all other characteristics. We find in general that more trading results in smaller net return due to trading frictions, with the exception that the net return is independent of the trading frequency for A-share individual traders. We unveiled quantitative power laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by traders. Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible inefficiencies of these financial markets.

Decisions on investments in photovoltaics and carbon capture and storage: A comparison between two different greenhouse gas control strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

2013-01-01

Decisions of electricity suppliers on investments in low-carbon energy technologies like PV (photovoltaics) and CCS (carbon capture and storage) depend on the expected profits or surpluses that can be earned. For an assessment of the profitability of investments in PV (and other renewable energy technologies), additional costs caused by the fluctuation in PV power plants' productivity and by the need for backup capacities have to be taken into account. Changes in the rest of the power plant stock will via their influence on the merit-order curve also affect the return on investment. Bearing these aspects in mind, it might become more attractive to invest in alternative technologies like CCS than to channel the investments towards PV in combination with backup power plants. In our study we compare investments in CCS and PV regarding possible merit-order effects and profitability, using investments in Germany as an example. - Highlights: • We compare CCS and PV as CO 2 reduction strategies and focus on merit-order effects. • CCS has higher marginal cost than PV, but CCS does not need backup capacities. • Merit-order effects influence the profitability of investments in CCS and PV. • CCS investments at moderate rates tend to be more beneficial than investments in PV. • However, legal restrictions and lack of acceptance constitute limiting factors

A Technical Note on Australian Default Superannuation Investment Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loretta Iskra

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Superannuation has become more complex over time. Individual investors are inclined to seek the ‘path of least resistance’ and invest in default investment funds which are typically concentrated in high risk assets. Understanding how these funds will meet the individual needs of members relative to their changing circumstances can provide peace of mind and confidence in the market. Given the value of superannuation as an investment in terms of the economy, it is paramount than an appropriate mechanism be in place for default fund investors. This paper will clarify the existing position relative to default fund investment options and outline future research which will provide the impetus for change in terms ofgovernment policy, the financial planning profession and for industry superannuation funds.

Computing Optimal Stochastic Portfolio Execution Strategies: A Parametric Approach Using Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Moazeni, Somayeh; Coleman, Thomas F.; Li, Yuying

2010-09-01

Computing optimal stochastic portfolio execution strategies under appropriate risk consideration presents great computational challenge. We investigate a parametric approach for computing optimal stochastic strategies using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach allows reduction in computational complexity by computing coefficients for a parametric representation of a stochastic dynamic strategy based on static optimization. Using this technique, constraints can be similarly handled using appropriate penalty functions. We illustrate the proposed approach to minimize the expected execution cost and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).

Optimal intermittent search strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rojo, F; Budde, C E [FaMAF, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Ciudad Universitaria, X5000HUA Cordoba (Argentina); Wio, H S [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria and CSIC E-39005 Santander (Spain)

2009-03-27

We study the search kinetics of a single fixed target by a set of searchers performing an intermittent random walk, jumping between different internal states. Exploiting concepts of multi-state and continuous-time random walks we have calculated the survival probability of a target up to time t, and have 'optimized' (minimized) it with regard to the transition probability among internal states. Our model shows that intermittent strategies always improve target detection, even for simple diffusion states of motion.

Dispositional optimism and coping strategies in patients with a kidney transplant.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-Requena, Gemma; Cantarell-Aixendri, M Carmen; Parramon-Puig, Gemma; Serón-Micas, Daniel

2014-01-01

 Dispositional optimism is a personal resource that determines the coping style and adaptive response to chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the correlations between dispositional optimism and coping strategies in patients with recent kidney transplantation and evaluate the differences in the use of coping strategies in accordance with the level of dispositional optimism.  Patients who were hospitalised in the nephrology department were selected consecutively after kidney transplantation was performed. The evaluation instruments were the Life Orientation Test-Revised, and the Coping Strategies Inventory. The data were analysed with central tendency measures, correlation analyses and means were compared using Student’s t-test.   66 patients with a kidney transplant participated in the study. The coping styles that characterised patients with a recent kidney transplantation were Social withdrawal and Problem avoidance. Correlations between dispositional optimism and coping strategies were significant in a positive direction in Problem-solving (p<.05) and Cognitive restructuring (p<.01), and inversely with Self-criticism (p<.05). Differences in dispositional optimism created significant differences in the Self-Criticism dimension (t=2.58; p<.01).  Dispositional optimism scores provide differences in coping responses after kidney transplantation. Moreover, coping strategies may influence the patient’s perception of emotional wellbeing after kidney transplantation.

The trajectories of EAEC countries development: Numerical analysis of competitive strategies in investments

Science.gov (United States)

Shelomentsev, A. G.; Medvedev, M. A.; Isaichik, K. F.; Dyomina, M. I.; Berg, I. A.; Kit, M.

2017-12-01

This paper discusses comparative analysis of trajectories in the development of participating countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC) in a two-dimensional phase space. The coordinates in the space is represented by the value of a dynamic variable that is a key indicator of the country's development, and the rate of its relative growth. This allows for construction of a ternary classification diagram describing competitive behavior strategies of countries in question. The comparative analysis was run for two primary factors: the size of investment in the main capital and R&D spendings. The authors carried out analysis and identification of competitive strategies for the behavior of the EAEC countries, as well as he proposed conclusions and recommendations on improving the policy of economic development.

A basic guide to investing.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Michael C

2006-03-01

Today's investors have many choices. From seemingly simple investments, such as stocks, bonds and cash, to more complicated option strategies, there is a dizzying array of investment vehicles that can leave even the most seasoned investor a bit confused. In discussions with our clients, one common thread is the desire to learn more about the various types of investments available. Following is a basic guide to the most common investments and the risks inherent in those choices.

THE EXTREME WEIGHTS IN THE INDEX PORTFOLIO OF CONSTANT-PROPORTION STRATEGIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yury F. Kasimov

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the optimal of constant proportion index portfolio strategies. They are also called passive strategies which are becoming more common in Russia and abroad. They are significantly cheaper to implement than active strategies. In addition, as practice shows, in the long term they are more profitable and less risky. The main problem in these strategies is the choice of the proportions in which the investor allocates his capital between risky and risk-free assets. In constant proportion index portfolio the weight of risk asset remains constant throughout investment period. For this purpose, the investor with a certain frequency restores the desired balance between risky and risk-free assets. Each period at the beginning of which such recovery occurs is called the re-balancing period. In the case of strategies with index portfolios, risky assets are the shares of the index fund, and risk-free assets are the deposits in reliable bank or government bonds. According on the daily value of units of these funds and the annual interest rate for the 11-year period, using a specially developed program optimal weight index funds in the portfolios has been found. Parameters of the analyzed portfolios are: length of the investment period (from one year to 10 years and the frequency of weight rebalancing (month, quarter, year. The sequence of optimal weights and the corresponding optimum yield for consecutive investment periods with a specified frequency of re-balancing were determined for each fund. It was found that in almost all cases, the optimal weights of fund equals the extreme values 0 or 1. Also, the frequencies of these values in the selected sequence is about the same for all funds. This empiric fact can be conventionally called the principle of extremeness or “all or nothing” principle. 

ONLINE PROMOTION OF FINANCIAL INVESTMENT SERVICES COMPANIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Ancuta Iancu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available When we think about promotion in financial investment services companies, we have to consider, not only the offline or traditional type of promotion (personal communication, advertising, sales promotion, public relations and organization identity but online promotion as well. Due to the fact that for more and more people, Internet represents the most important mean of communication, financial investment services companies marketing specialists have a variety of tools at hand. In this study we will describe the most important online promotion tools, like: E-mail Marketing, advertising, search engines, networks socialization, M-Marketing and promotion through web pages. Specific methods of online promotion enable real-time knowledge of the investor’s behavior and can also address to them most effectively. The purpose of this theoretical study is to increase the rate of knowledge and usage of online marketing, in a very conservatory sector of the financial market: Financial Investment Services Companies Marketing. By promoting online a company, a product or a service the marketing specialists can target specific customer, segments and quantify results, which is almost impossible on such a scale and with such precision by traditional methods of promotion. Based on the literature and our own experience, methods were taken up and adapted in financial investment services companies. We show the present state of online marketing, make proposals and describe difficulties which can be encountered when an e-marketing strategy is made. The conclusion of our study is that more and more companies use online tools in their marketing strategies. There is a change in attitude by the Financial Investment Services Companies web pages: from a reserved one in 2010 to one open to innovation in 2015; we believe that SSIF Broker is an illustrative example in this regard. Instead, our opinion is that Search Engine Optimization should be used more by SSIF Broker

Optimal energy management strategy for battery powered electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xi, Jiaqi; Li, Mian; Xu, Min

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The power usage for battery-powered electrical vehicles with in-wheel motors is maximized. • The battery and motor dynamics are examined emphasized on the power conversion and utilization. • The optimal control strategy is derived and verified by simulations. • An analytic expression of the optimal operating point is obtained. - Abstract: Due to limited energy density of batteries, energy management has always played a critical role in improving the overall energy efficiency of electric vehicles. In this paper, a key issue within the energy management problem will be carefully tackled, i.e., maximizing the power usage of batteries for battery-powered electrical vehicles with in-wheel motors. To this end, the battery and motor dynamics will be thoroughly examined with particular emphasis on the power conversion and power utilization. The optimal control strategy will then be derived based on the analysis. One significant contribution of this work is that an analytic expression for the optimal operating point in terms of the component and environment parameters can be obtained. Owing to this finding, the derived control strategy is also rendered a simple structure for real-time implementation. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed strategy works both adaptively and robustly under different driving scenarios

Foreign Direct Investments Expansion – Essential Globalization Factor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cătălin Emilian HUIDUMAC PETRESCU

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We live in a time when the world economy is constantly changing. Foreign direct investments is one of the most dynamic part of the world economy and in a continuous globalization, those international financial flows determining the traders to know their defining elements and to adopt a specific management in the international affairs field. We are viewers of an unprecedented expansion of foreign direct investments, essential factor of the globalization development process. The paper analyzes the evolution of FDI so far, along with a brief illustration as the main trends of international financial flows for 2010 and 2011. In the context of economic globalization, it is absolutely necessary to clear out a study on the various economic activities, especially on the differences between countries. The analysis of these differences is particularly important as it helps improve and optimize the strategies adopted by foreign transnational companies. In the past 15 years, one observes that most companies in emerging countries, characterized by a great expansion, have adopted in the first phase of their existence, corporate strategies that gave them the opportunity to become global companies. According to surveys, after reaching the first goal, becoming a multinational or a transnational company, they have developed new business models beyond the classical principles and strategies. It is anticipated that in the coming decades, the strategies of emerging companies will be influenced by functional specialization, which, according to experts, influence the process of globalization. The analysis of strategies adopted by companies in emerging countries is absolutely necessary because the results cannot be overlooked. For example, until 2004, only five Asian companies were part of the top 100 transnational companies. The study was carried out by UNCTAD and the identification criterion was the size of foreign assets. In 2006, 14% of world total FDI came from

Indicators of responsible investing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scholtens, Bert

Responsible investment has witnessed significant changes in the past decade. It is estimated that about one fifth of assets under management in the US and about half of all assets under management in the EU are done on the basis of one of the seven responsible investment strategies. This paper

Improved quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization with local search strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maolong Xi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization, which was motivated by analysis of particle swarm optimization and quantum system, has shown compared performance in finding the optimal solutions for many optimization problems to other evolutionary algorithms. To address the problem of premature, a local search strategy is proposed to improve the performance of quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. In proposed local search strategy, a super particle is presented which is a collection body of randomly selected particles’ dimension information in the swarm. The selected probability of particles in swarm is different and determined by their fitness values. To minimization problems, the fitness value of one particle is smaller; the selected probability is more and will contribute more information in constructing the super particle. In addition, in order to investigate the influence on algorithm performance with different local search space, four methods of computing the local search radius are applied in local search strategy and propose four variants of local search quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. Empirical studies on a suite of well-known benchmark functions are undertaken in order to make an overall performance comparison among the proposed methods and other quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization. The simulation results show that the proposed quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization variants have better advantages over the original quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization.

Validation of optimization strategies using the linear structured production chains

Science.gov (United States)

Kusiak, Jan; Morkisz, Paweł; Oprocha, Piotr; Pietrucha, Wojciech; Sztangret, Łukasz

2017-06-01

Different optimization strategies applied to sequence of several stages of production chains were validated in this paper. Two benchmark problems described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were considered. A water tank and a passive CR-RC filter were used as the exemplary objects described by the first and the second order differential equations, respectively. Considered in the work optimization problems serve as the validators of strategies elaborated by the Authors. However, the main goal of research is selection of the best strategy for optimization of two real metallurgical processes which will be investigated in an on-going projects. The first problem will be the oxidizing roasting process of zinc sulphide concentrate where the sulphur from the input concentrate should be eliminated and the minimal concentration of sulphide sulphur in the roasted products has to be achieved. Second problem will be the lead refining process consisting of three stages: roasting to the oxide, oxide reduction to metal and the oxidizing refining. Strategies, which appear the most effective in considered benchmark problems will be candidates for optimization of the mentioned above industrial processes.

Business investment in research and development (R-D: business strategy for the 21st century in Puerto Rico?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Lobato Vico

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Two thirds (67% of total investment in Research and Development (R-D activities in Puerto Rico is made by the business sector. This paper analyzes the data from the Pilot Survey on Research and Development and finds that a group of startups or new enterprises focused on R-D activities has been developed, but the total amount of R-D investment is not enough to consider this as a generalized strategy or one of deep impact on the economy. Corporate investment in R-D in Puerto Rico is strongly associated with subsidiaries of multinational corporations from the United States, as well as with specific industrial subsectors, in particular with the chemical industry (pharmaceutical and the subsector of research and development services.

Private investments in new infrastructures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baarsma, B.; Poort, J.P.; Teulings, C.N.; de Nooij, M.

2004-01-01

The Lisbon Strategy demands large investments in transport projects, broadband networks and energy infrastructure. Despite the widely-acknowledged need for investments in new infrastructures, European and national public funds are scarce in the current economic climate. Moreover, both policy-makers

Financing investment in environmentally sound technologies: Foreign direct investment versus foreign debt finance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anyangah, Joshua Okeyo

2010-01-01

This paper develops a screening model to examine the relationship between alternative sources of private capital and investment in environmentally sound technologies (ESTs). In the model, a polluter (agent) must secure investment funds from the international financial markets in order to upgrade its production and abatement technology. The requisite capital can be obtained via either market loans (debt finance) or foreign direct investment (FDI). Under debt finance, the foreign financier supplies only capital and the relationship between the two parties is more 'arms-length'. By contrast, under FDI, the investor delivers both capital and managerial skills. We use the model to derive the implications of debt finance for optimal investment decisions and compare them to those obtained under FDI. Investment incentives are more pronounced under debt finance. (author)

The costs of electricity systems with a high share of fluctutating renewables. A stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagl, Stephan; Fuersch, Michaela; Lindenberger, Dietmar

2012-01-01

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we analyze the impact of the stochastic availability of wind and solar energy on the cost-minimal power plant mix and the related total system costs. To determine optimal conventional, renewable and storage capacities for different shares of renewables, we apply a stochastic investment and dispatch optimization model to the European electricity market. The model considers stochastic feed-in structures and full load hours of wind and solar technologies and different correlations between regions and technologies. Key findings include the overestimation of fluctuating renewables and underestimation of total system costs compared to deterministic investment and dispatch models. Furthermore, solar technologies are - relative to wind turbines - underestimated when neglecting negative correlations between wind speeds and solar radiation.

Investing in CIS: obstacles and strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

The CIS (Community of Independent States) needs the help of foreign investments to develop its huge hydrocarbon potentialities. Because of the uncertainties concerning the legal and fiscal context of their activities, the role of the international oil companies has remained limited so far. These problems were discussed in May 1996 during an important ''General Session'' of the OTC 96 congress. Proven and explored onshore oil reserves in Russia are enormous, in particular in Western and Eastern Siberia. However, the economically most interesting resources are located in the offshore zones of the Barents, Pechora and Kara seas and of Eastern Siberia and Okhotsk. This paper describes the last years decay of oil production in CIS and its causes, in particular the obstacles to foreign investments (exportation and transport taxes), the recent contracts and joint-ventures with American major companies (Exxon, Amoco..), and the situation of the Russian industry in petroleum engineering and field exploitation materials. (J.S.)

CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jarboui Anis

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

Some topics in mathematical finance: Asian basket option pricing, Optimal investment strategies

OpenAIRE

Diallo, Ibrahima

2010-01-01

This thesis presents the main results of my research in the field of computational finance and portfolios optimization. We focus on pricing Asian basket options and portfolio problems in the presence of inflation with stochastic interest rates.In Chapter 2, we concentrate upon the derivation of bounds for European-style discrete arithmetic Asian basket options in a Black and Scholes framework.We start from methods used for basket options and Asian options. First, we use the general approach f...

An options approach to investment in a hydrogen infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benthem, A.A. van; Kramer, G.J.; Ramer, R.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the investments needed for the introduction of hydrogen as a transport fuel. Using option theory, we develop a model to calculate the value and optimal timing of a first commercial rollout of hydrogen vehicles in a larger area, taking Japan as a specific example. We find that the project is best viewed as an out-of-the-money call option with a small but positive option value. We estimate this value at approximately 1.5 billion euros, without tax advantages. An important finding is that the moment of investment is first and foremost determined by the maturing of the technology. By contrast, the investment timing is not as much affected by deployment strategy as is frequently thought: in particular, whether or not the hydrogen retail infrastructure is introduced smoothly does not sensitively influence the investment timing. Fairly independent of parameter assumptions, the project value at the moment of deployment is negative for the retailer and positive for the car manufacturer. This implies the need for a negotiated partnership. Finally, we assess various forms of government support, e.g. subsidies or tax cuts. Looking at the effectiveness of this support spending in relation to the advancement of hydrogen deployment, we find, again because investment timing is primarily determined by technology maturation, that tax incentives are relatively ineffective. We are lead to believe that government subsidy for technology development is a more effective means to achieve earlier investment, as faster production cost reductions for hydrogen and fuel cell vehicles lead to accelerated investment

A Joint Optimal Decision on Shipment Size and Carbon Reduction under Direct Shipment and Peddling Distribution Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daiki Min

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Recently, much research has focused on lowering carbon emissions in logistics. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature on the joint shipment size and carbon reduction decisions by developing novel models for distribution systems under direct shipment and peddling distribution strategies. Unlike the literature that has simply investigated the effects of carbon costs on operational decisions, we address how to reduce carbon emissions and logistics costs by adjusting shipment size and making an optimal decision on carbon reduction investment. An optimal decision is made by analyzing the distribution cost including not only logistics and carbon trading costs but also the cost for adjusting carbon emission factors. No research has explicitly considered the two sources of carbon emissions, but we develop a model covering the difference in managing carbon emissions from transportation and storage. Structural analysis guides how to determine an optimal shipment size and emission factors in a closed form. Moreover, we analytically prove the possibility of reducing the distribution cost and carbon emissions at the same time. Numerical analysis follows validation of the results and demonstrates some interesting findings on carbon and distribution cost reduction.

A methodological model to assist in the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botin, Jose A; Guzman, Ronald R; Smith, Martin L

2011-01-01

Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modeling of project N et Present Value (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project life cycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heggedal, Ane Marte

2012-07-01

This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

Two-objective on-line optimization of supervisory control strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nassif, N.; Kajl, S.; Sabourin, R. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal (Canada)

2004-09-01

The set points of supervisory control strategy are optimized with respect to energy use and thermal comfort for existing HVAC systems. The set point values of zone temperatures, supply duct static pressure, and supply air temperature are the problem variables, while energy use and thermal comfort are the objective functions. The HVAC system model includes all the individual component models developed and validated against the monitored data of an existing VAV system. It serves to calculate energy use during the optimization process, whereas the actual energy use is determined by using monitoring data and the appropriate validated component models. A comparison, done for one summer week, of actual and optimal energy use shows that the on-line implementation of a genetic algorithm optimization program to determine the optimal set points of supervisory control strategy could save energy by 19.5%, while satisfying the minimum zone airflow rates and the thermal comfort. The results also indicate that the application of the two-objective optimization problem can help control daily energy use or daily building thermal comfort, thus saving more energy than the application of the one-objective optimization problem. (Author)

Optimal Pricing Strategy in Marketing Research Consulting.

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chun-Hao; Lee, Chi-Wen Jevons

1994-01-01

This paper studies the optimal pricing scheme for a monopolistic marketing research consultant who sells high-cost proprietary marketing information to her oligopolistic clients in the manufacturing industry. In designing an optimal pricing strategy, the consultant needs to fully consider the behavior of her clients, the behavior of the existing and potential competitors to her clients, and the behavior of her clients' customers. The authors show how the environment uncertainty, the capabilit...

MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

Power plants investment decision-making in consideration of investment risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, Junichiro; Matsuhashi, Ryuji; Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Takashima, Ryuta

2005-01-01

In this paper, we consider the investment risk of nuclear power plants using the real options approach. It is essential that the Japanese society evaluate the investment risk, because nuclear power plants are facing definite uncertainty and Japanese governments intend to promote and assist nuclear power plants through subsidies and policy actions. We assumed that the wholesale market prices of electricity constitute the definite uncertainty and that the wholesale market prices follow the geometric Brownian motion with drift. Using the Bellman equation and a lattice framework, we evaluated the value of investment opportunity, the value of equipment, and the critical prices that are optimal prices to invest in a nuclear power plant in the finite time horizon. This analysis shows that higher volatility of the wholesale market prices would give power companies lower incentive to construct electric power plants, particularly capital-intensive power plants. In order to deliberate and hold the Japanese governments accountable for the economics of nuclear power plants, multifaceted evaluation is needed. (author)

Evaluation of optimization strategies and the effect of initial conditions on IMAT optimization using a leaf position optimization algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliver, Mike; Jensen, Michael; Chen, Jeff; Wong, Eugene

2009-01-01

Intensity-modulated arc therapy (IMAT) is a rotational variant of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) that can be implemented with or without angular dose rate variation. The purpose of this study is to assess optimization strategies and initial conditions using a leaf position optimization (LPO) algorithm altered for variable dose rate IMAT. A concave planning target volume (PTV) with a central cylindrical organ at risk (OAR) was used in this study. The initial IMAT arcs were approximated by multiple static beams at 5 deg. angular increments where multi-leaf collimator (MLC) leaf positions were determined from the beam's eye view to irradiate the PTV but avoid the OAR. For the optimization strategy, two arcs with arc ranges of 280 deg. and 150 deg. were employed and plans were created using LPO alone, variable dose rate optimization (VDRO) alone, simultaneous LPO and VDRO and sequential combinations of these strategies. To assess the MLC initialization effect, three single 360 deg. arc plans with different initial MLC configurations were generated using the simultaneous LPO and VDRO. The effect of changing optimization degrees of freedom was investigated by employing 3 deg., 5 deg. and 10 deg. angular sampling intervals for the two 280 deg., two 150 deg. and single arc plans using LPO and VDRO. The objective function value, a conformity index, a dose homogeneity index, mean dose to OAR and normal tissues were computed and used to evaluate the treatment plans. This study shows that the best optimization strategy for a concave target is to use simultaneous MLC LPO and VDRO. We found that the optimization result is sensitive to the choice of initial MLC aperture shapes suggesting that an LPO-based IMAT plan may not be able to overcome local minima for this geometry. In conclusion, simultaneous MLC leaf position and VDRO are needed with the most appropriate initial conditions (MLC positions, arc ranges and number of arcs) for IMAT.

A Particle Swarm Optimization Variant with an Inner Variable Learning Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guohua Wu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Although Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO has demonstrated competitive performance in solving global optimization problems, it exhibits some limitations when dealing with optimization problems with high dimensionality and complex landscape. In this paper, we integrate some problem-oriented knowledge into the design of a certain PSO variant. The resulting novel PSO algorithm with an inner variable learning strategy (PSO-IVL is particularly efficient for optimizing functions with symmetric variables. Symmetric variables of the optimized function have to satisfy a certain quantitative relation. Based on this knowledge, the inner variable learning (IVL strategy helps the particle to inspect the relation among its inner variables, determine the exemplar variable for all other variables, and then make each variable learn from the exemplar variable in terms of their quantitative relations. In addition, we design a new trap detection and jumping out strategy to help particles escape from local optima. The trap detection operation is employed at the level of individual particles whereas the trap jumping out strategy is adaptive in its nature. Experimental simulations completed for some representative optimization functions demonstrate the excellent performance of PSO-IVL. The effectiveness of the PSO-IVL stresses a usefulness of augmenting evolutionary algorithms by problem-oriented domain knowledge.

Generating optimized stochastic power management strategies for electric car components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fruth, Matthias [TraceTronic GmbH, Dresden (Germany); Bastian, Steve [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany)

2012-11-01

With the increasing prevalence of electric vehicles, reducing the power consumption of car components becomes a necessity. For the example of a novel traffic-light assistance system, which makes speed recommendations based on the expected length of red-light phases, power-management strategies are used to control under which conditions radio communication, positioning systems and other components are switched to low-power (e.g. sleep) or high-power (e.g. idle/busy) states. We apply dynamic power management, an optimization technique well-known from other domains, in order to compute energy-optimal power-management strategies, sometimes resulting in these strategies being stochastic. On the example of the traffic-light assistant, we present a MATLAB/Simulink-implemented framework for the generation, simulation and formal analysis of optimized power-management strategies, which is based on this technique. We study capabilities and limitations of this approach and sketch further applications in the automotive domain. (orig.)

Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

2001-07-01

Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

Optimal decentralized valley-filling charging strategy for electric vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Kangkang; Xu, Liangfei; Ouyang, Minggao; Wang, Hewu; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Li, Zhe

2014-01-01

Highlights: • An implementable charging strategy is developed for electric vehicles connected to a grid. • A two-dimensional pricing scheme is proposed to coordinate charging behaviors. • The strategy effectively works in decentralized way but achieves the systematic valley filling. • The strategy allows device-level charging autonomy, and does not require a bidirectional communication/control network. • The strategy can self-correct when confronted with adverse factors. - Abstract: Uncoordinated charging load of electric vehicles (EVs) increases the peak load of the power grid, thereby increasing the cost of electricity generation. The valley-filling charging scenario offers a cheaper alternative. This study proposes a novel decentralized valley-filling charging strategy, in which a day-ahead pricing scheme is designed by solving a minimum-cost optimization problem. The pricing scheme can be broadcasted to EV owners, and the individual charging behaviors can be indirectly coordinated. EV owners respond to the pricing scheme by autonomously optimizing their individual charge patterns. This device-level response induces a valley-filling effect in the grid at the system level. The proposed strategy offers three advantages: coordination (by the valley-filling effect), practicality (no requirement for a bidirectional communication/control network between the grid and EV owners), and autonomy (user control of EV charge patterns). The proposed strategy is validated in simulations of typical scenarios in Beijing, China. According to the results, the strategy (1) effectively achieves the valley-filling charging effect at 28% less generation cost than the uncoordinated charging strategy, (2) is robust to several potential affecters of the valley-filling effect, such as (system-level) inaccurate parameter estimation and (device-level) response capability and willingness (which cause less than 2% deviation in the minimal generation cost), and (3) is compatible with

Terminal Investment Strategies and Male Mate choice: Extreme Tests of Bateman.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Maydianne C B; Kasumovic, Michael M

2005-11-01

Bateman's principle predicts the intensity of sexual selection depends on rates of increase of fecundity with mating success for each sex (Bateman slopes). The sex with the steeper increase (usually males) is under more intense sexual selection and is expected to compete for access to the sex under less intense sexual selection (usually females). Under Bateman and modern refinements of his ideas, differences in parental investment are key to defining Bateman slopes and thus sex roles. Other theories predict sex differences in mating investment, or any expenditures that reduce male potential reproductive rate, can also control sex roles. We focus on sexual behaviour in systems where males have low paternal investment but frequently mate only once in their lifetimes, after which they are often killed by the female. Mating effort (=terminal investment) is high for these males, and many forms of investment theory might predict sex role reversal. We find no qualitative evidence for sex role reversal in a sample of spiders that show this extreme male investment pattern. We also present new data for terminally-investing redback spiders (Latrodectus hasselti). Bateman slopes are relatively steep for male redbacks, and, as predicted by Bateman, there is little evidence for role reversal. Instead, males are competitive and show limited choosiness despite wide variation in female reproductive value. This study supports the proposal that high male mating investment coupled with low parental investment may predispose males to choosiness but will not lead to role reversal. We support the utility of using Bateman slopes to predict sex roles, even in systems with extreme male mating investment.

Multinational Taxation and R&D Investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Waegenaere, A.; Sansing, R.C.; Wielhouwer, J.L.

2012-01-01

This study examines the effects of taxation on the incentives of multinational firms to develop and use intellectual property. We model optimal investment and production decisions by firms that engage in a patent race by making R&D investments. We investigate how taxes affect the level and

Multinational taxation and R&D investments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

De Waegenaere, A.M.B.; Sansing, R.; Wielhouwer, J.L.

2012-01-01

This study examines the effects of taxation on the incentives of multinational firms to develop and use intellectual property. We model optimal investment and production decisions by firms that engage in a patent race by making R&D investments. We investigate how taxes affect the level and

Challenges when Performing Economic Optimization of Waste Treatment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Nina; Münster, Marie; Ravn, Hans

2011-01-01

New investments in waste treatment facilities are needed due to a number of factors including continuously increasing waste amounts, political demands for efficient utilization of the waste resources in terms of recycling or energy production, and decommissioning of existing waste treatment...... facilities due to age and stricter environmental regulation. Optimization models can assist in ensuring that these investment strategies will be economically feasible. Various economic optimization models for waste treatment have been developed which focus on different parameters. Models focusing...... in multi criteria analysis have been developed. A thorough updated review of the existing models is presented and the main challenges and the crucial parameters to take into account when assessing the economic performance of waste treatment alternatives are identified. The review article will assist both...

An optimization strategy for the control of small capacity heat pump integrated air-conditioning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Jiajia; Huang, Gongsheng; Xu, Xinhua

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An optimization strategy for a small-scale air-conditioning system is developed. • The optimization strategy aims at optimizing the overall system energy consumption. • The strategy may guarantee the robust control of the space air temperature. • The performance of the optimization strategy was tested on a simulation platform. - Abstract: This paper studies the optimization of a small-scale central air-conditioning system, in which the cooling is provided by a ground source heat pump (GSHP) equipped with an on/off capacity control. The optimization strategy aims to optimize the overall system energy consumption and simultaneously guarantee the robustness of the space air temperature control without violating the allowed GSHP maximum start-ups number per hour specified by customers. The set-point of the chilled water return temperature and the width of the water temperature control band are used as the decision variables for the optimization. The performance of the proposed strategy was tested on a simulation platform. Results show that the optimization strategy can save the energy consumption by 9.59% in a typical spring day and 2.97% in a typical summer day. Meanwhile it is able to enhance the space air temperature control robustness when compared with a basic control strategy without optimization.

A strategy for the economic optimization of combined cycle gas turbine power plants by taking advantage of useful thermodynamic relationships

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godoy, E.; Benz, S.J.; Scenna, N.J.

2011-01-01

Optimal combined cycle gas turbine power plants characterized by minimum specific annual cost values are here determined for wide ranges of market conditions as given by the relative weights of capital investment and operative costs, by means of a non-linear mathematical programming model. On the other hand, as the technical optimization allows identifying trends in the system behavior and unveiling optimization opportunities, selected functional relationships are obtained as the thermodynamic optimal values of the decision variables are systematically linked to the ratio between the total heat transfer area and the net power production (here named as specific transfer area). A strategy for simplifying the resolution of the rigorous economic optimization problem of power plants is proposed based on the economic optima distinctive characteristics which describe the behavior of the decision variables of the power plant on its optima. Such approach results in a novel mathematical formulation shaped as a system of non-linear equations and additional constraints that is able to easily provide accurate estimations of the optimal values of the power plant design and operative variables. Research highlights: → We achieve relationships between power plants' economic and thermodynamic optima. → We achieve functionalities among thermodynamic optimal values of decision variables. → The rigorous optimization problem is reduced to a non-linear equations system. → Accurate estimations of power plants' design and operative variables are obtained.

Dr. Alyce SU on China Overseas Investment Strategy

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2010-01-01

@@ Brazil Brazil Investment Background Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) (similar role to China Development Bank) is Brazil's leading long term loan provider to Brazilian domestic enterprises. BNDES's subsidiary BNDESPar holds shares of Brazil's listed and unlisted companies. Since 2010, BNDES and BNDESPar have been restructuring investment portfolio by selling shares in Fibria and 2.4% of Banco de Brasil for cash for making future loans. It's 5.3% shares in VALE is widely expected to be the next liquidity event.

Social Investment or Private Profit? Diverging Notions of "Investment" in Early Childhood Education and Care

Science.gov (United States)

Adamson, Elizabeth; Brennan, Deborah

2014-01-01

In recent decades, many OECD countries have adopted the notion of "social investment" to reframe traditional approaches to social welfare. Social investment strategies and policies focus on employment rather than welfare and promote public expenditure on skills and education throughout the life course, starting with early childhood…

Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Kekytė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

The Impact of Short-Sale Constraints on Asset Allocation Strategies via the Backward Markov Chain Approximation Method

OpenAIRE

Carl Chiarella; Chih-Ying Hsiao

2005-01-01

This paper considers an asset allocation strategy over a finite period under investment uncertainty and short-sale constraints as a continuous time stochastic control problem. Investment uncertainty is characterised by a stochastic interest rate and inflation risk. If there are no short-sale constraints, the optimal asset allocation strategy can be solved analytically. We consider several kinds of short-sale constraints and employ the backward Markov chain approximation method to explore the ...

[Are investment activity and backlog in investments risks for university medicine in Germany?].

Science.gov (United States)

Amann, I; Heyder, R; Strehl, R

2009-08-01

University medicine in Germany requires significantly higher funding and investment because its tasks not only include health care but also research and teaching. However, over recent decades less and less funding compared to the development of the turnover has been available. This trend is due to decreasing public funding. The diminishing funding has caused a major backlog of investment at German university hospitals. The first part of the article summarizes the investments policies at university hospitals and other hospitals. The second part describes the investment needs in university medicine and exposes risk factors for research, education and health care due to the process of investment planning and realization. Goal-oriented solutions are shown to facilitate investments. The third part discusses several risks caused by insufficient investments in university medicine. There are special risks for research, teaching, and the capacity for innovation in university medicine besides economical and medical risks. Some policies and financial strategies to overcome the backlog in investments are presented. After a summary, the article concludes with some practical examples of further measures to ensure sustainable funding.

Artificial root foraging optimizer algorithm with hybrid strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Liu

2017-02-01

Full Text Available In this work, a new plant-inspired optimization algorithm namely the hybrid artificial root foraging optimizion (HARFO is proposed, which mimics the iterative root foraging behaviors for complex optimization. In HARFO model, two innovative strategies were developed: one is the root-to-root communication strategy, which enables the individual exchange information with each other in different efficient topologies that can essentially improve the exploration ability; the other is co-evolution strategy, which can structure the hierarchical spatial population driven by evolutionary pressure of multiple sub-populations that ensure the diversity of root population to be well maintained. The proposed algorithm is benchmarked against four classical evolutionary algorithms on well-designed test function suites including both classical and composition test functions. Through the rigorous performance analysis that of all these tests highlight the significant performance improvement, and the comparative results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm.

A universal optimization strategy for ant colony optimization algorithms based on the Physarum-inspired mathematical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Zili; Gao, Chao; Liu, Yuxin; Qian, Tao

2014-01-01

Ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithms often fall into the local optimal solution and have lower search efficiency for solving the travelling salesman problem (TSP). According to these shortcomings, this paper proposes a universal optimization strategy for updating the pheromone matrix in the ACO algorithms. The new optimization strategy takes advantages of the unique feature of critical paths reserved in the process of evolving adaptive networks of the Physarum-inspired mathematical model (PMM). The optimized algorithms, denoted as PMACO algorithms, can enhance the amount of pheromone in the critical paths and promote the exploitation of the optimal solution. Experimental results in synthetic and real networks show that the PMACO algorithms are more efficient and robust than the traditional ACO algorithms, which are adaptable to solve the TSP with single or multiple objectives. Meanwhile, we further analyse the influence of parameters on the performance of the PMACO algorithms. Based on these analyses, the best values of these parameters are worked out for the TSP. (paper)

Optimizing long-term investments for a sustainable development of the ASEAN power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huber, Matthias; Roger, Albert; Hamacher, Thomas

2015-01-01

The electricity consumption in the ASEAN (Association of East Asian Nations) region is one of the fastest growing in the world and will lead to a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades. A decarbonization of the region's electricity supply is thus a very important measure when taking action on global climate change. This paper defines cost-optimal pathways towards a sustainable power system in the region by employing linear optimization. The proposed model simultaneously optimizes the required capacities and the hourly operation of generation, transmission, and storage. The obtained results show that all different kinds of renewable sources will have to be utilized, while none of them should have a share of more than one third. The findings give reason for setting up an ASEAN power grid, as it enables the transportation of electricity from the best sites to load centers and leads to a balancing of the fluctuations from wind and solar generation. We suggest fostering a diversified extension of renewables and to elaborate on political and technical solutions that enable the build up an transnational supergrid. - Highlights: • Article presents an optimization model of the ASEAN power system with high temporal and spatial resolution. • Cost-optimal investment options for achieving a sustainable electricity system are explored. • All types of renewable energies have to be employed while none of them should provide more than one third of overall supply. • Large transcontinental transmission grids will be crucial for a cost-minimal decarbonization of the ASEAN electricity sector

Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Hallinan, Gregg

2018-06-01

Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.

2010-01-01

In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or a savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations.

Optimal portfolio selection for general provisioning and terminal wealth problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Weert, K.; Dhaene, J.; Goovaerts, M.

2009-01-01

In Dhaene et al. (2005), multiperiod portfolio selection problems are discussed, using an analytical approach to find optimal constant mix investment strategies in a provisioning or savings context. In this paper we extend some of these results, investigating some specific, real-life situations. The

A software system for oilfield facility investment minimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding, Z.X.; Startzman, R.A.

1996-01-01

Minimizing investment in oilfield development is an important subject that has attracted a considerable amount of industry attention. One method to reduce investment involves the optimal placement and selection of production facilities. Because of the large amount of capital used in this process, saving a small percent of the total investment may represent a large monetary value. The literature reports algorithms using mathematical programming techniques that were designed to solve the proposed problem in a global optimal manner. Owing to the high-computational complexity and the lack of user-friendly interfaces for data entry and results display, mathematical programming techniques have not been given enough attention in practice. This paper describes an interactive, graphical software system that provides a global optimal solution to the problem of placement and selection of production facilities in oil-field development processes. This software system can be used as an investment minimization tool and a scenario-study simulator. The developed software system consists of five basic modules: (1) an interactive data-input unit, (2) a cost function generator, (3) an optimization unit, (4) a graphic-output display, and (5) a sensitivity-analysis unit

Optimal Sizing and Control Strategy Design for Heavy Hybrid Electric Truck

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan Zou

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the complexity of the hybrid powertrain, the control is highly involved to improve the collaborations of the different components. For the specific powertrain, the components' sizing just gives the possibility to propel the vehicle and the control will realize the function of the propulsion. Definitely the components' sizing also gives the constraints to the control design, which cause a close coupling between the sizing and control strategy design. This paper presents a parametric study focused on sizing of the powertrain components and optimization of the power split between the engine and electric motor for minimizing the fuel consumption. A framework is put forward to accomplish the optimal sizing and control design for a heavy parallel pre-AMT hybrid truck under the natural driving schedule. The iterative plant-controller combined optimization methodology is adopted to optimize the key parameters of the plant and control strategy simultaneously. A scalable powertrain model based on a bilevel optimization framework is built. Dynamic programming is applied to find the optimal control in the inner loop with a prescribed cycle. The parameters are optimized in the outer loop. The results are analysed and the optimal sizing and control strategy are achieved simultaneously.

Repair rather than segregation of damage is the optimal unicellular aging strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Clegg, Robert J; Dyson, Rosemary J; Kreft, Jan-Ulrich

2014-08-16

How aging, being unfavourable for the individual, can evolve is one of the fundamental problems of biology. Evidence for aging in unicellular organisms is far from conclusive. Some studies found aging even in symmetrically dividing unicellular species; others did not find aging in the same, or in different, unicellular species, or only under stress. Mathematical models suggested that segregation of non-genetic damage, as an aging strategy, would increase fitness. However, these models failed to consider repair as an alternative strategy or did not properly account for the benefits of repair. We used a new and improved individual-based model to examine rigorously the effect of a range of aging strategies on fitness in various environments. Repair of damage emerges as the best strategy despite its fitness costs, since it immediately increases growth rate. There is an optimal investment in repair that outperforms damage segregation in well-mixed, lasting and benign environments over a wide range of parameter values. Damage segregation becomes beneficial, and only in combination with repair, when three factors are combined: (i) the rate of damage accumulation is high, (ii) damage is toxic and (iii) efficiency of repair is low. In contrast to previous models, our model predicts that unicellular organisms should have active mechanisms to repair damage rather than age by segregating damage. Indeed, as predicted, all organisms have evolved active mechanisms of repair whilst aging in unicellular organisms is absent or minimal under benign conditions, apart from microorganisms with a different ecology, inhabiting short-lived environments strongly favouring early reproduction rather than longevity. Aging confers no fitness advantage for unicellular organisms in lasting environments under benign conditions, since repair of non-genetic damage is better than damage segregation.

Optimal Dynamic Advertising Strategy Under Age-Specific Market Segmentation

Science.gov (United States)

Krastev, Vladimir

2011-12-01

We consider the model proposed by Faggian and Grosset for determining the advertising efforts and goodwill in the long run of a company under age segmentation of consumers. Reducing this model to optimal control sub problems we find the optimal advertising strategy and goodwill.

Factor investing based on Musharakah principle

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Shahril; Omar, Mohd; Lazam, Norazliani Md; Amin, Mohd Nazrul Mohd

2015-10-01

Shariah stock investing has become a widely discussed topic in financial industry as part of today's investment strategy. The strategy primarily applies market capitalization allocations. However, some researchers have argued that market capitalization weighting is inherently flawed and have advocated replacing market capitalization allocations with factor allocations. In this paper, we discuss the rationale for factor investing based on Musharakah principle. The essential elements or factors of Musharakah principle such as business sector, management capability, profitability growth and capital efficiency are embedded in the Shariah-compliant stock. We then transform these factors into indexation for better analysis and performance measurement. Investment universe for this research covers Malaysian stocks for the period of January 2009 to December 2013. We found out that these factor indexes have historically earned excess returns over market capitalization weighted indexes and experienced higher Sharpe Ratios.

An optimal inspection strategy for randomly failing equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chelbi, Anis; Ait-Kadi, Daoud

1999-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of generating optimal inspection strategies for randomly failing equipment where imminent failure is not obvious and can only be detected through inspection. Inspections are carried out following a condition-based procedure. The equipment is replaced if it has failed or if it shows imminent signs of failure. The latter state is indicated by measuring certain predetermined control parameters during inspection. Costs are associated with inspection, idle time and preventive or corrective actions. An optimal inspection strategy is defined as the inspection sequence minimizing the expected total cost per time unit over an infinite span. A mathematical model and a numerical algorithm are developed to generate an optimal inspection sequence. As a practical example, the model is applied to provide a machine tool operator with a time sequence for inspecting the cutting tool. The tool life time distribution and the trend of one control parameter defining its actual condition are supposed to be known

Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiao Wu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

Model for optimization of plant investments in combined power and heat production systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jantunen, E.; Sinisalo, A.; Koskelainen, L.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed for optimal dimensioning and timing the investments of power and heat production system in a community. The required electric power may be purchased by different production systems, such as: thermal power plants, gas turbines, diesel plants, etc. or by delivering all or part of it from a national power company. Also the required heat may be produced in many different ways in single-purpose or combined plants. The model assumes the extent of the heating system fixed, and it is not optimized. It is assumed that the same company is responsible for supplying both the power and heat for the community. It's aim is to allocate the existing capital in an optimal way, and the model may be used for facilitating the decision in such questions as: what kind of production capacity should be purchased in future; how high should the heat and power capacities be; and when should this additional capacity be available. The report also reviews the methods for forecasting the demand of power and heat and their fluctuation during the planning period. The solution of this large-scale non-linear optimization problem is searched via successive linearizations by using the Method of Approximate Programming (MAP). It was found that the solution method is very suitable for this kind of multivariable problems. The computing times with the Functional Mathematical Programmin System (FMPS) in Univac 1108 computer were quite reasonable.

Automatic CT simulation optimization for radiation therapy: A general strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Hua, E-mail: huli@radonc.wustl.edu; Chen, Hsin-Chen; Tan, Jun; Gay, Hiram; Michalski, Jeff M.; Mutic, Sasa [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Yu, Lifeng [Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota 55905 (United States); Anastasio, Mark A. [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri 63110 (United States); Low, Daniel A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

2014-03-15

Purpose: In radiation therapy, x-ray computed tomography (CT) simulation protocol specifications should be driven by the treatment planning requirements in lieu of duplicating diagnostic CT screening protocols. The purpose of this study was to develop a general strategy that allows for automatically, prospectively, and objectively determining the optimal patient-specific CT simulation protocols based on radiation-therapy goals, namely, maintenance of contouring quality and integrity while minimizing patient CT simulation dose. Methods: The authors proposed a general prediction strategy that provides automatic optimal CT simulation protocol selection as a function of patient size and treatment planning task. The optimal protocol is the one that delivers the minimum dose required to provide a CT simulation scan that yields accurate contours. Accurate treatment plans depend on accurate contours in order to conform the dose to actual tumor and normal organ positions. An image quality index, defined to characterize how simulation scan quality affects contour delineation, was developed and used to benchmark the contouring accuracy and treatment plan quality within the predication strategy. A clinical workflow was developed to select the optimal CT simulation protocols incorporating patient size, target delineation, and radiation dose efficiency. An experimental study using an anthropomorphic pelvis phantom with added-bolus layers was used to demonstrate how the proposed prediction strategy could be implemented and how the optimal CT simulation protocols could be selected for prostate cancer patients based on patient size and treatment planning task. Clinical IMRT prostate treatment plans for seven CT scans with varied image quality indices were separately optimized and compared to verify the trace of target and organ dosimetry coverage. Results: Based on the phantom study, the optimal image quality index for accurate manual prostate contouring was 4.4. The optimal tube

Automatic CT simulation optimization for radiation therapy: A general strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hua; Yu, Lifeng; Anastasio, Mark A; Chen, Hsin-Chen; Tan, Jun; Gay, Hiram; Michalski, Jeff M; Low, Daniel A; Mutic, Sasa

2014-03-01

In radiation therapy, x-ray computed tomography (CT) simulation protocol specifications should be driven by the treatment planning requirements in lieu of duplicating diagnostic CT screening protocols. The purpose of this study was to develop a general strategy that allows for automatically, prospectively, and objectively determining the optimal patient-specific CT simulation protocols based on radiation-therapy goals, namely, maintenance of contouring quality and integrity while minimizing patient CT simulation dose. The authors proposed a general prediction strategy that provides automatic optimal CT simulation protocol selection as a function of patient size and treatment planning task. The optimal protocol is the one that delivers the minimum dose required to provide a CT simulation scan that yields accurate contours. Accurate treatment plans depend on accurate contours in order to conform the dose to actual tumor and normal organ positions. An image quality index, defined to characterize how simulation scan quality affects contour delineation, was developed and used to benchmark the contouring accuracy and treatment plan quality within the predication strategy. A clinical workflow was developed to select the optimal CT simulation protocols incorporating patient size, target delineation, and radiation dose efficiency. An experimental study using an anthropomorphic pelvis phantom with added-bolus layers was used to demonstrate how the proposed prediction strategy could be implemented and how the optimal CT simulation protocols could be selected for prostate cancer patients based on patient size and treatment planning task. Clinical IMRT prostate treatment plans for seven CT scans with varied image quality indices were separately optimized and compared to verify the trace of target and organ dosimetry coverage. Based on the phantom study, the optimal image quality index for accurate manual prostate contouring was 4.4. The optimal tube potentials for patient sizes

Optimal dividends in the Brownian motion risk model with interest

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Ying; Wu, Rong

2009-07-01

In this paper, we consider a Brownian motion risk model, and in addition, the surplus earns investment income at a constant force of interest. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividend payments. It is well known that optimality is achieved by using a barrier strategy for unrestricted dividend rate. However, ultimate ruin of the company is certain if a barrier strategy is applied. In many circumstances this is not desirable. This consideration leads us to impose a restriction on the dividend stream. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. Under this additional constraint, we show that the optimal dividend strategy is formed by a threshold strategy.

Parallel strategy for optimal learning in perceptrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neirotti, J P

2010-01-01

We developed a parallel strategy for learning optimally specific realizable rules by perceptrons, in an online learning scenario. Our result is a generalization of the Caticha-Kinouchi (CK) algorithm developed for learning a perceptron with a synaptic vector drawn from a uniform distribution over the N-dimensional sphere, so called the typical case. Our method outperforms the CK algorithm in almost all possible situations, failing only in a denumerable set of cases. The algorithm is optimal in the sense that it saturates Bayesian bounds when it succeeds.

Enterprise investment, local government intervention and coal overcapacity: The case of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yanfang; Zhang, Ming; Liu, Yue; Nie, Rui

2017-01-01

Long-term management of China's coal overcapacity depends on the targeted policy guidance on industry production capacity expansion in the overcapacity formation process. In this study, coal enterprise and local government are treated as game participants, and a three-stage dynamic game model has been developed to depict the boosting effect of the game behavior of coal enterprise's and local government's capacity investments in different markets of supply and demand. The results are shown in the following: (1) local government has been the 'behind-the-scenes' operator of over-investment and redundant construction, and its excessive interventions in coal industry investment have been the primary cause of overcapacity formation; (2) when the market is in short supply, coal enterprise's optimal behavior is to continuously increase the rate of investment growth until it reaches the threshold to obtain the maximum excess profits, ultimately leading to overinvestment in the industry; and (3) the key factors affecting the game abilities of coal enterprise and local government are the market's self-regulation and the central government's supervision intensity. Although the Chinese government, a highly vertically oriented bureaucratic structure, is implementing a mandatory de-capacity policy to alleviate the intensity of excessive coal capacity, it is not a long-term regularization on the supply-side reform. - Highlights: • The formation of China's coal overcapacity is studied from capacity investors. • A three-stage game is developed to depict the boosting effect of coal overcapacity. • Local government has been the 'behind-the-scenes' operators of coal overcapacity. • Coal enterprise's optimal strategy is reaching an investment-max with undersupply. • Chinese government should rely more on market mechanisms instead of intervention.

Blackjack in Holland Casino's : Basic, optimal and winning strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Genugten, B.B.

1995-01-01

This paper considers the cardgame Blackjack according to the rules of Holland Casino's in the Netherlands. Expected gains of strategies are derived with simulation and also with analytic tools. New effiency concepts based on the gains of the basic and the optimal strategy are introduced. A general

Environmental assessment and investment strategies of provincial industrial sector in China — Analysis based on DEA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Juan, E-mail: wangjuan_tju@163.com [College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Zhao, Tao [College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Zhang, Xiaohu [College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210016 (China)

2016-09-15

As an energy-intensive industry, the industrial sector consumes 70% of energy consumption and causes serious environmental pollution in China. Also, the government emphasized the promotion of R&D investment in the industrial sector in China's National Plan on Climate Change (2014–2020). It is meaningful and contributes to assessing energy and environmental performance, as well as R&D and industrial pollution control (IPC) investment strategies of China's industrial sector. A non-radial DEA model, as with natural and managerial disposability, was adopted to evaluate this from provincial and regional perspectives during the 2008–2012 period. Energy and environmental performance was evaluated by unified efficiency under natural disposability (UEN), unified efficiency under managerial disposability (UEM), and unified efficiency under natural and managerial disposability (UENM). The empirical results indicated that Shandong and Hainan were efficient under natural and managerial disposability, while other provinces had the potential to improve their energy and environmental performance. The number of provinces that was fit for investments of R&D and IPC increased from 2008 to 2010, then decreased in 2011 and 2012. In spite of this, many provincial industrial sectors should make efforts to reduce pollution by investment on technology. Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi and Henan were especially the best investment objects because investments of R&D and IPC turned to be effective for them during the whole study period. Moreover, western China had the highest average UENM, followed by eastern China and central China. Eastern China and central China were rewarding to expand investments. Coal consumption was the main factor to negatively affect unified efficiency whereas the increase in economic development level was primarily responsible for the improvement of unified efficiency. According to the results, differentiated suggestions to further improve energy and

Environmental assessment and investment strategies of provincial industrial sector in China — Analysis based on DEA model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Juan; Zhao, Tao; Zhang, Xiaohu

2016-01-01

As an energy-intensive industry, the industrial sector consumes 70% of energy consumption and causes serious environmental pollution in China. Also, the government emphasized the promotion of R&D investment in the industrial sector in China's National Plan on Climate Change (2014–2020). It is meaningful and contributes to assessing energy and environmental performance, as well as R&D and industrial pollution control (IPC) investment strategies of China's industrial sector. A non-radial DEA model, as with natural and managerial disposability, was adopted to evaluate this from provincial and regional perspectives during the 2008–2012 period. Energy and environmental performance was evaluated by unified efficiency under natural disposability (UEN), unified efficiency under managerial disposability (UEM), and unified efficiency under natural and managerial disposability (UENM). The empirical results indicated that Shandong and Hainan were efficient under natural and managerial disposability, while other provinces had the potential to improve their energy and environmental performance. The number of provinces that was fit for investments of R&D and IPC increased from 2008 to 2010, then decreased in 2011 and 2012. In spite of this, many provincial industrial sectors should make efforts to reduce pollution by investment on technology. Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi and Henan were especially the best investment objects because investments of R&D and IPC turned to be effective for them during the whole study period. Moreover, western China had the highest average UENM, followed by eastern China and central China. Eastern China and central China were rewarding to expand investments. Coal consumption was the main factor to negatively affect unified efficiency whereas the increase in economic development level was primarily responsible for the improvement of unified efficiency. According to the results, differentiated suggestions to further improve energy and environmental

Quantifying Productivity Gains from Foreign Investment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C. Fons-Rosen (Christian); S. Kalemli-Ozcan (Sebnem); B.E. Sorensen (Bent); C. Villegas-Sanchez (Carolina)

2013-01-01

textabstractWe quantify the causal effect of foreign investment on total factor productivity (TFP) using a new global firm-level database. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the difference in the amount of foreign investment by financial and industrial investors and simultaneously

Application of optimal interation strategies to diffusion theory calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, R.B.

1978-01-01

The geometric interpretation of optimal (minimum computational time) iteration strategies is applied to one- and two-group, two-dimensional diffusion-theory calculations. The method is a ''spectral/time balance'' technique which weighs the convergence enhancement of the inner iteration procedure with that of the outer iteration loop and the time required to reconstruct the source. The diffusion-theory option of the discrete-ordinates transport code DOT3.5 was altered to incorporate the theoretical inner/outer decision logic. For the two-dimensional configuration considered, the optimal strategies reduced the total number of iterations performed for a given error criterion

Investigation of factors determining risk-taking strategies in Pension fund investment of Defined Benefit schemes in the UK corporate pension system

OpenAIRE

Hu, Chunan

2014-01-01

This paper investigates various incentives determining risk taking strategies of the corporate pension fund investment from the perspective of sponsors. In the United Kingdom, occupational pension plans especially defined benefit (DB) pension schemes play important roles in the financial market. Comparing with the conventional framework managing pension risk as a contained part of the whole firm risk, recent studies start to focus on pension risk especially investment risk as an individual to...

Simulación de Estrategias de Inversión para Pequeños Caficultores Colombianos Simulation of Investment Strategies for Small Coffee Farmers in Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Abaunza Osorio

2011-12-01

Full Text Available El cultivo del café proporciona el sustento de más de medio millón de pequeños caficultores en Colombia. La volatilidad y las fluctuaciones del precio del café dificultan la toma decisiones de inversión afectando la calidad de vida. Los caficultores no cuentan con herramientas para el análisis de esquemas estratégicos, así como el análisis a largo plazo del impacto de estas estrategias sobre sus ingresos. En este trabajo se plantean diferentes esquemas estratégicos de inversión para los caficultores basados en las estrategias genéricas de Porter y en estrategias de diversificación. Para el análisis a largo plazo de algunas de las estrategias propuestas se usa un modelo de dinámica de sistemas, y se tienen en cuenta diferentes escenarios en cuanto a precios del café.Coffee farming is the main source of income for more than half a million peasants in Colombia. These small farmers are exposed to the high volatility of coffee price which causes fluctuations in their income and which is an obstacle for making good investment decisions. In addition, small farmers have no tools for formulating and evaluating investment strategies or for assessing the impact of such strategies in their income. We propose and discuss alternative investment strategies for small coffee farmers. These strategies are based on Porter's generic strategies and on diversification strategies. To evaluate the long-run effect of alternative investment plans in farmers' income, we build a system dynamics simulation model, and run it under several price scenarios.

Optimal investment with fixed refinancing costs

OpenAIRE

Jason G. Cummins; Ingmar Nyman

2001-01-01

Case studies show that corporate managers seek financial independence to avoid interference by outside financiers. We incorporate this financial xenophobia as a fixed cost in a simple dynamic model of financing and investment. To avoid refinancing in the future, the firm alters its behavior depending on the extent of its financial xenophobia and the realization of a revenue shock. With a sufficiently adverse shock, the firm holds no liquidity. Otherwise, the firm precautionarily saves and hol...

Optimal Investment by Financially Xenophobic Managers

OpenAIRE

Jason G. Cummins; Ingmar Nyman

2000-01-01

Case studies show that corporate managers seek financial independence to avoid interference by outside financiers. We incorporate this financial xenophobia as a fixed cost in a simple dynamic model of financing and investment. To avoid refinancing in the future, the firm alters its behavior depending on the extent of its financial xenophobia and the realization of a revenue shock. With a sufficiently adverse shock, the firm holds no liquidity. Otherwise, the firm precautionarily saves and hol...

Investment Timing, Liquidity, and Agency Costs of Debt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirth, Stefan; Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

2010-01-01

This paper examines the effect of debt and liquidity on corporate investment in a continuous-time framework. We show that stockholder-bondholder agency conflicts cause investment thresholds to be U-shaped in leverage and decreasing in liquidity. In the absence of tax effects, we derive the optimal...... level of liquid funds that eliminates agency costs by implementing the first-best investment policy for a given capital structure. In a second step we generalize the framework by introducing a tax advantage of debt, and we show that an interior solution for liquidity and capital structure optimally...... trades off tax benefits and agency costs of debt....

Investments in the LNG Value Chain: A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model focusing on Floating Liquefaction Units

OpenAIRE

Røstad, Lars Dybsjord; Erichsen, Jeanette Christine

2012-01-01

In this thesis, we have developed a strategic optimization model of investments in infrastructure in the LNG value chain. The focus is on floating LNG production units: when they are a viable solution and what value they add to the LNG value chain. First a deterministic model is presented with focus on describing the value chain, before it is expanded to a multistage stochastic model with uncertain field sizes and gas prices. The objective is to maximize expected discounted profits through op...

Multilevel Optimization Framework for Hierarchical Stiffened Shells Accelerated by Adaptive Equivalent Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bo; Tian, Kuo; Zhao, Haixin; Hao, Peng; Zhu, Tianyu; Zhang, Ke; Ma, Yunlong

2017-06-01

In order to improve the post-buckling optimization efficiency of hierarchical stiffened shells, a multilevel optimization framework accelerated by adaptive equivalent strategy is presented in this paper. Firstly, the Numerical-based Smeared Stiffener Method (NSSM) for hierarchical stiffened shells is derived by means of the numerical implementation of asymptotic homogenization (NIAH) method. Based on the NSSM, a reasonable adaptive equivalent strategy for hierarchical stiffened shells is developed from the concept of hierarchy reduction. Its core idea is to self-adaptively decide which hierarchy of the structure should be equivalent according to the critical buckling mode rapidly predicted by NSSM. Compared with the detailed model, the high prediction accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model is highlighted. On the basis of this adaptive equivalent model, a multilevel optimization framework is then established by decomposing the complex entire optimization process into major-stiffener-level and minor-stiffener-level sub-optimizations, during which Fixed Point Iteration (FPI) is employed to accelerate convergence. Finally, the illustrative examples of the multilevel framework is carried out to demonstrate its efficiency and effectiveness to search for the global optimum result by contrast with the single-level optimization method. Remarkably, the high efficiency and flexibility of the adaptive equivalent strategy is indicated by compared with the single equivalent strategy.

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jake M Ferguson

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferguson, Jake M; Langebrake, Jessica B; Cannataro, Vincent L; Garcia, Andres J; Hamman, Elizabeth A; Martcheva, Maia; Osenberg, Craig W

2014-06-01

The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Optimal Energy Control Strategy Design for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan Zou

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A heavy-duty parallel hybrid electric truck is modeled, and its optimal energy control is studied in this paper. The fundamental architecture of the parallel hybrid electric truck is modeled feed-forwardly, together with necessary dynamic features of subsystem or components. Dynamic programming (DP technique is adopted to find the optimal control strategy including the gear-shifting sequence and the power split between the engine and the motor subject to a battery SOC-sustaining constraint. Improved control rules are extracted from the DP-based control solution, forming near-optimal control strategies. Simulation results demonstrate that a significant improvement on the fuel economy can be achieved in the heavy-duty vehicle cycle from the natural driving statistics.

The Importance of Investment Decisions in Project Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cosmina Mădălina Pop

2008-10-01

Full Text Available The financing decision alongside with investment decision represents the core of financial management. The paper presents the main steps in realizing investment projects, the option criteria used in pre-investment analysis, the techniques of financing the investments project, but also the methods of evaluation applied in selecting the most suitable project, accordingly with company’s developlment strategy and policy.

Modelling and optimal operation of a small-scale integrated energy based district heating and cooling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jing, Z.X.; Jiang, X.S.; Wu, Q.H.; Tang, W.H.; Hua, B.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a comprehensive model of a small-scale integrated energy based district heating and cooling (DHC) system located in a residential area of hot-summer and cold-winter zone, which makes joint use of wind energy, solar energy, natural gas and electric energy. The model includes an off-grid wind turbine generator, heat producers, chillers, a water supply network and terminal loads. This research also investigates an optimal operating strategy based on Group Search Optimizer (GSO), through which the daily running cost of the system is optimized in both the heating and cooling modes. The strategy can be used to find the optimal number of operating chillers, optimal outlet water temperature set points of boilers and optimal water flow set points of pumps, taking into account cost functions and various operating constraints. In order to verify the model and the optimal operating strategy, performance tests have been undertaken using MATLAB. The simulation results prove the validity of the model and show that the strategy is able to minimize the system operation cost. The proposed system is evaluated in comparison with a conventional separation production (SP) system. The feasibility of investment for the DHC system is also discussed. The comparative results demonstrate the investment feasibility, the significant energy saving and the cost reduction, achieved in daily operation in an environment, where there are varying heating loads, cooling loads, wind speeds, solar radiations and electricity prices. - Highlights: • A model of a small-scale integrated energy based DHC system is presented. • An off-grid wind generator used for water heating is embedded in the model. • An optimal control strategy is studied to optimize the running cost of the system. • The designed system is proved to be energy efficient and cost effective in operation

A U.S. utilities perspective of foreign investments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, M.; Imsdahl, B.

1994-12-31

This paper reviews what MDU Resources Group, Inc. will use for criteria to evaluate investment opportunities in foreign countries and the strategy it has developed for foreign investments. The paper further outlines what MDU Resources Group, Inc. considers critical to make an investment in an international project.

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, G.; Beresford, N.A.; Alvarez-Farizo, B.; Oughton, D.; Kis, Z.; Eged, K.; Thorring, H.; Hunt, J.; Wright, S.; Barnett, C.L.; Gil, J.M.; Howard, B.J.; Crout, N.M.J.

2005-01-01

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7 x 10 14 , 1.2 x 10 13 , 2.8 x 10 10 and 5.3 x 10 9 Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137 Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately pound 160 million. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented