Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johnsen, Jon

As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra.The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp , including a new result for type 1,1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp -functions with compact spectra....

Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johnsen, Jon

2011-01-01

As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra. The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp, including a new result for type 1, 1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp-functions with compact spectra....

Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Wesley; Thurston, Marland; Hood, Christopher

1995-01-01

The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

Smooth time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve estimators.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos

2018-03-01

The receiver operating characteristic curve is a popular graphical method often used to study the diagnostic capacity of continuous (bio)markers. When the considered outcome is a time-dependent variable, two main extensions have been proposed: the cumulative/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve and the incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve. In both cases, the main problem for developing appropriate estimators is the estimation of the joint distribution of the variables time-to-event and marker. As usual, different approximations lead to different estimators. In this article, the authors explore the use of a bivariate kernel density estimator which accounts for censored observations in the sample and produces smooth estimators of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. The performance of the resulting cumulative/dynamic and incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curves is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, the influence of the choice of the required smoothing parameters is explored. Finally, two real-applications are considered. An R package is also provided as a complement to this article.

A study on the method for estimating the life time of O-rings made of NBR used in sealing air operating cylinders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujii, Yuzo; Mitsuta, Yasumasa

2003-01-01

At nuclear power plants, a large number of O-rings made of rubber are attached to safety related machines and apparatus for sealing two metallic components. O-rings degrade during the long term exposure in environmental conditions in use, and finally lose the requested functions. Therefore it is important to exchange them in a proper period based on the precise life time estimation. This study aimed at to investigate the method for estimating the life time of O-rings made of NBR (acrylonitrile butadiene rubber) attached to the air cylinders which drive the dampers of ventilation systems in nuclear power plants. It has been conducted as follows: (1) After confirming that the main cause of degradation of O-rings is thermo-oxidation reaction, thermally accelerated aging tests were carried out for O-rings with three different temperatures. (2) It was certified that the elongation values of O-rings obtained by the tests could be fitted by the Arrhenius rule, and then the life time of O-rings was estimated using the Arrhenius rule. (3) In order to validate the reliability of this estimation, we measured the elongation values of the O-rings which had been actually used at nuclear power plants, and compared them to the predicted elongation values obtained by the above estimation. The average and standard deviation of the values which is calculated by the equation {(measured value-predicted value)/ predicted value} are 11% and 8%, respectively and there are small errors between the measured value and the predicted values. As a result we can judge that good estimation of life time of O-rings can be done by the above method. (author)

Life time estimation of SSCs for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Choi, Byung-Seon

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This paper suggests the expectation algorithm of SSCs life time for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities. ► The life time of SSCs can be estimated by using fuzzy theory. ► The estimated results depend on the membership functions and performance characteristic functions. - Abstract: This paper suggests the estimation algorithm for life time of structure, system and components (SSCs) for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities using the performance data of linguistic languages and fuzzy theory. The fuzzy estimation algorithm of life time can be easily applicable but the estimated results depend on the relevant membership functions and performance characteristic functions. This method will be expected to be very useful for maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear facilities’ SSCs as a safety assessment tool.

MRS/IS facility co-located with a repository: preconceptual design and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.I.; Nesbitt, J.F.

1982-11-01

A program is described to examine the various alternatives for monitored retrievable storage (MRS) and interim storage (IS) of spent nuclear fuel, solidified high-level waste (HLW), and transuranic (TRU) waste until appropriate geologic repository/repositories are available. The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a preconceptual design for an MRS/IS facility that would become the principal surface facility for a deep geologic repository when the repository is opened, (2) to examine various issues such as transportation of wastes, licensing of the facility, and environmental concerns associated with operation of such a facility, and (3) to estimate the life cycle costs of the facility when operated in response to a set of scenarios which define the quantities and types of waste requiring storage in specific time periods, which generally span the years from 1990 until 2016. The life cycle costs estimated in this study include: the capital expenditures for structures, casks and/or drywells, storage areas and pads, and transfer equipment; the cost of staff labor, supplies, and services; and the incremental cost of transporting the waste materials from the site of origin to the MRS/IS facility. Three scenarios are examined to develop estimates of life cycle costs of the MRS/IS facility. In the first scenario, HLW canisters are stored, starting in 1990, until the co-located repository is opened in the year 1998. Additional reprocessing plants and repositories are placed in service at various intervals. In the second scenario, spent fuel is stored, starting in 1990, because the reprocessing plants are delayed in starting operations by 10 years, but no HLW is stored because the repositories open on schedule. In the third scenario, HLW is stored, starting in 1990, because the repositories are delayed 10 years, but the reprocessing plants open on schedule

Life Estimation of PWR Steam Generator U-Tubes Subjected to Foreign Object-Induced Fretting Wear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, Jong Chull; Jhung, Myung Jo; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

2005-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the remaining life prediction of steam generator (SG) U-tubes, which are intact initially, subjected to fretting-wear degradation due to the interaction between a vibrating tube and a foreign object in operating nuclear power plants. The operating SG shell-side flow field conditions are obtained from a three-dimensional SG flow calculation using the ATHOS3 code. Modal analyses are performed for the finite element models of U-tubes to get the natural frequency, corresponding mode shape, and participation factor. The wear rate of a U-tube caused by a foreign object is calculated using the Archard formula, and the remaining life of the tube is predicted. Also discussed in this study are the effects of the tube modal characteristics, external flow velocity, and tube internal pressure on the estimated results of the remaining life of the tube

Plant life management for long term operation of light water reactors. Principles and guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The subject of this report was originally suggested by the IAEA Technical Working Group on Life Management of Nuclear Power Plants. It was then approved by the IAEA for work to begin in 2004. The participants in the group felt that it was time to address plant life management and ageing issues from the point of view of long term operation and licence renewal. It is believed that the nuclear power industry will only be able to survive if plant economics are favourable and safety is maintained. Therefore, the issue of ageing and obsolescence has to be addressed from an operational and safety standpoint, but also in the context of plant economics in terms of the cost of electricity production, including initial and recurring capital costs. Use of new technologies, such as advanced in-service inspection and condition based maintenance, should be considered, not only to predict the consequences of ageing and guard against them, but also to monitor equipment performance throughout the lifetime of the plant and to help establish replacement schedules for critical systems, structures and components, and to better estimate the optimum end of the operating licence, which means the end of the nuclear power plant's lifetime. The importance of nuclear power plant life management in facilitating the technical and economic goals of long term operation is presented in this report in terms of the requirement to ensure safe long term supplies of electricity in the most economically competitive way. Safe and reliable operation is discussed in terms of the overall economic benefits when plant life management is implemented. Preconditions for plant life management for long term operation are identified and approaches are reviewed. Plant life management should not be associated only with the extension of the operational lifetime of the nuclear power plant, but with an owner's attitude and a rational approach of the operating company towards running the business economically and safely

MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.E. Sweeney

2001-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

1995-01-01

This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

Integrity and life estimation of turbine runner cover in a hydro power plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Sedmak

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents integrity and life estimation of turbine runner cover in a vertical pipe turbines, Kaplan 200 MW nominal output power, produced in Russia, and built in six hydro-generation units of hydroelectric power plant „Đerdap 1” in Serbia. Fatigue and corrosion-fatigue interaction have been taken into account using experimentally obtained material properties, as well as analytical and numerical calculations of stress state, to estimate appropriate safety factors. Fatigue crack growth rate, da/dN, was also calculated, indicated that internal defects of circular or elliptical shape, found out by ultrasonic testing, do not affect reliable operation of runner cover.

Quality of life of nurses in the operating room

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raquel Murano Alfaia dos Santos

2009-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the quality of life of operating room nurses and collect their opinions as to the influence their professional activity exerts on their quality of life. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out on a sample of 24 nurses that work in the operating room of a large private hospital in the city of São Paulo. Two questionnaires were applied; one was designed by the authors of this research project, and the other was the Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF. Rresults: As to quality of life, the environment domain obtained the highest score, while the psychological domain obtained the lowest. When asked if their professional activity in the operating room influenced their quality of life, most responded affirmatively. Regarding the justifications offered by the nurses for the influence of their professional activity on their quality of life, 50% mentioned environment-related stress, responsibilities, duties, risk situations, relationships with the multiprofessional team, and the type of work carried out in the operating room. Cconclusions: The psychological domain obtained the lowest score in the nurse quality of life evaluation, pointing out the need to facilitate and/or encourage nurses to seek psychological support. As to the influence of their professional activity on their quality of life, the nurses mentioned stress related to their work environment and professional activities in the operating room. This highlights the importance of managers in this area, paying greater attention to the individual and collective needs of their employees.

LIFE Cost of Electricity, Capital and Operating Costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anklam, T.

2011-01-01

Successful commercialization of fusion energy requires economic viability as well as technical and scientific feasibility. To assess economic viability, we have conducted a pre-conceptual level evaluation of LIFE economics. Unit costs are estimated from a combination of bottom-up costs estimates, working with representative vendors, and scaled results from previous studies of fission and fusion plants. An integrated process model of a LIFE power plant was developed to integrate and optimize unit costs and calculate top level metrics such as cost of electricity and power plant capital cost. The scope of this activity was the entire power plant site. Separately, a development program to deliver the required specialized equipment has been assembled. Results show that LIFE power plant cost of electricity and plant capital cost compare favorably to estimates for new-build LWR's, coal and gas - particularly if indicative costs of carbon capture and sequestration are accounted for.

Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Regression to fuzziness method for estimation of remaining useful life in power plant components

Science.gov (United States)

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Grelle, Austin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

2014-10-01

Mitigation of severe accidents in power plants requires the reliable operation of all systems and the on-time replacement of mechanical components. Therefore, the continuous surveillance of power systems is a crucial concern for the overall safety, cost control, and on-time maintenance of a power plant. In this paper a methodology called regression to fuzziness is presented that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of power plant components. The RUL is defined as the difference between the time that a measurement was taken and the estimated failure time of that component. The methodology aims to compensate for a potential lack of historical data by modeling an expert's operational experience and expertise applied to the system. It initially identifies critical degradation parameters and their associated value range. Once completed, the operator's experience is modeled through fuzzy sets which span the entire parameter range. This model is then synergistically used with linear regression and a component's failure point to estimate the RUL. The proposed methodology is tested on estimating the RUL of a turbine (the basic electrical generating component of a power plant) in three different cases. Results demonstrate the benefits of the methodology for components for which operational data is not readily available and emphasize the significance of the selection of fuzzy sets and the effect of knowledge representation on the predicted output. To verify the effectiveness of the methodology, it was benchmarked against the data-based simple linear regression model used for predictions which was shown to perform equal or worse than the presented methodology. Furthermore, methodology comparison highlighted the improvement in estimation offered by the adoption of appropriate of fuzzy sets for parameter representation.

Remaining useful life estimation based on discriminating shapelet extraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malinowski, Simon; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2015-01-01

In the Prognostics and Health Management domain, estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical machinery is a challenging task. Various research topics including data acquisition, fusion, diagnostics and prognostics are involved in this domain. This paper presents an approach, based on shapelet extraction, to estimate the RUL of equipment. This approach extracts, in an offline step, discriminative rul-shapelets from an history of run-to-failure data. These rul-shapelets are patterns that are selected for their correlation with the remaining useful life of the equipment. In other words, every selected rul-shapelet conveys its own information about the RUL of the equipment. In an online step, these rul-shapelets are compared to testing units and the ones that match these units are used to estimate their RULs. Therefore, RUL estimation is based on patterns that have been selected for their high correlation with the RUL. This approach is different from classical similarity-based approaches that attempt to match complete testing units (or only late instants of testing units) with training ones to estimate the RUL. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a case study on the remaining useful life estimation of turbofan engines and performance is compared with other similarity-based approaches. - Highlights: • A data-driven RUL estimation technique based on pattern extraction is proposed. • Patterns are extracted for their correlation with the RUL. • The proposed method shows good performance compared to other techniques

Estimation of a monotone percentile residual life function under random censorship.

Science.gov (United States)

Franco-Pereira, Alba M; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

2013-01-01

In this paper, we introduce a new estimator of a percentile residual life function with censored data under a monotonicity constraint. Specifically, it is assumed that the percentile residual life is a decreasing function. This assumption is useful when estimating the percentile residual life of units, which degenerate with age. We establish a law of the iterated logarithm for the proposed estimator, and its n-equivalence to the unrestricted estimator. The asymptotic normal distribution of the estimator and its strong approximation to a Gaussian process are also established. We investigate the finite sample performance of the monotone estimator in an extensive simulation study. Finally, data from a clinical trial in primary biliary cirrhosis of the liver are analyzed with the proposed methods. One of the conclusions of our work is that the restricted estimator may be much more efficient than the unrestricted one. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Life estimation I and C cable insulation materials based on accelerated life testing accelerated life testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santhosh, T.V.; Ramteke, P.K.; Shrestha, N.B.; Ahirwar, A.K.; Gopika, V.

2016-01-01

Accelerated Iife tests are becoming increasingly popular in today's industry due to the need for obtaining life data quickly and reliably. Life testing of products under higher stress levels without introducing additional failure modes can provide significant savings of both time and money. Correct analysis of data gathered via such accelerated life testing will yield parameters and other information for the product's life under use stress conditions. To be of practical use in assessing the operational behaviour of cables in NPPs, laboratory ageing aims to mimic the type of degradation observed under operational conditions. Conditions of testing therefore need to be carefully chosen to ensure that the degradation mechanism occurring in the accelerated tests are similar to those which occur in service. This paper presents the results of an investigation in which the elongation-at-break (EAB) measurements were carried on a typical control cable to predict the mean life at service conditions. A low voltage polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulated and PVC sheathed control cable, used in NPP instrumentation and control (I and C) applications, was subjected thermal ageing at three elevated temperatures

Energy efficiency estimation of a steam powered LNG tanker using normal operating data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinha Rajendra Prasad

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A ship’s energy efficiency performance is generally estimated by conducting special sea trials of few hours under very controlled environmental conditions of calm sea, standard draft and optimum trim. This indicator is then used as the benchmark for future reference of the ship’s Energy Efficiency Performance (EEP. In practice, however, for greater part of operating life the ship operates in conditions which are far removed from original sea trial conditions and therefore comparing energy performance with benchmark performance indicator is not truly valid. In such situations a higher fuel consumption reading from the ship fuel meter may not be a true indicator of poor machinery performance or dirty underwater hull. Most likely, the reasons for higher fuel consumption may lie in factors other than the condition of hull and machinery, such as head wind, current, low load operations or incorrect trim [1]. Thus a better and more accurate approach to determine energy efficiency of the ship attributable only to main machinery and underwater hull condition will be to filter out the influence of all spurious and non-standard operating conditions from the ship’s fuel consumption [2]. The author in this paper identifies parameters of a suitable filter to be used on the daily report data of a typical LNG tanker of 33000 kW shaft power to remove effects of spurious and non-standard ship operations on its fuel consumption. The filtered daily report data has been then used to estimate actual fuel efficiency of the ship and compared with the sea trials benchmark performance. Results obtained using data filter show closer agreement with the benchmark EEP than obtained from the monthly mini trials . The data filtering method proposed in this paper has the advantage of using the actual operational data of the ship and thus saving cost of conducting special sea trials to estimate ship EEP. The agreement between estimated results and special sea trials EEP is

Estimation of pump operational state with model-based methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahonen, Tero; Tamminen, Jussi; Ahola, Jero; Viholainen, Juha; Aranto, Niina; Kestilae, Juha

2010-01-01

Pumps are widely used in industry, and they account for 20% of the industrial electricity consumption. Since the speed variation is often the most energy-efficient method to control the head and flow rate of a centrifugal pump, frequency converters are used with induction motor-driven pumps. Although a frequency converter can estimate the operational state of an induction motor without external measurements, the state of a centrifugal pump or other load machine is not typically considered. The pump is, however, usually controlled on the basis of the required flow rate or output pressure. As the pump operational state can be estimated with a general model having adjustable parameters, external flow rate or pressure measurements are not necessary to determine the pump flow rate or output pressure. Hence, external measurements could be replaced with an adjustable model for the pump that uses estimates of the motor operational state. Besides control purposes, modelling the pump operation can provide useful information for energy auditing and optimization purposes. In this paper, two model-based methods for pump operation estimation are presented. Factors affecting the accuracy of the estimation methods are analyzed. The applicability of the methods is verified by laboratory measurements and tests in two pilot installations. Test results indicate that the estimation methods can be applied to the analysis and control of pump operation. The accuracy of the methods is sufficient for auditing purposes, and the methods can inform the user if the pump is driven inefficiently.

Wind turbine blade life-time assessment model for preventive planning of operation and maintenance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

Modeling of the fatigue damage accumulation processes in the material of NPP design units under thermomechanical unstationary effects. Estimation of spent life and forecast of residual life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiriushin, A.I.; Korotkikh, Yu.G.; Gorodov, G.F.

2002-01-01

Full text: The estimation problems of spent life and forecast of residual life of NPP equipment design units, operated at unstationary thermal force loads are considered. These loads are, as a rule, unregular and cause rotation of main stress tensor platforms of the most loaded zones of structural elements and viscoelastic plastic deformation of material in the places of stresses concentrations. The existing engineering approaches to the damages accumulation processes calculation in the material of structural units, their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. For the processes of fatigue damages accumulation a model is proposed, which allows to take into account the unregular pattern of deformation multiaxiality of stressed state, rotation of main platforms, non-linear summation of damages at the loading mode change. The model in based on the equations of damaged medium mechanics, including the equations of viscoplastic deformation of the material and evolutionary equations of damages accumulation. The algorithms of spent life estimation and residual life forecast of the controlled equipment and systems zones are made on the bases of the given model by the known real history of loading, which is determined by real model of NPP operation. The results of numerical experiments on the basis of given model for various processes of thermal force loads and their comparison with experimental results are presented. (author)

Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-19

the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

Older adults' beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy: a cross-sectional survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bynum Debra L

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of life expectancy assist physicians and patients in medical decision-making. The time-delayed benefits for many medical treatments make an older adult's life expectancy estimate particularly important for physicians. The purpose of this study is to assess older adults' beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy. Methods We performed a mixed qualitative-quantitative cross-sectional study in which 116 healthy adults aged 70+ were recruited from two local retirement communities. We interviewed them regarding their beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy in the context of a larger study on cancer screening beliefs. Semi-structured interviews of 80 minutes average duration were performed in private locations convenient to participants. Demographic characteristics as well as cancer screening beliefs and beliefs about life expectancy were measured. Two independent researchers reviewed the open-ended responses and recorded the most common themes. The research team resolved disagreements by consensus. Results This article reports the life-expectancy results portion of the larger study. The study group (n = 116 was comprised of healthy, well-educated older adults, with almost a third over 85 years old, and none meeting criteria for dementia. Sixty-four percent (n = 73 felt that their physicians could not correctly estimate their life expectancy. Sixty-six percent (n = 75 wanted their physicians to talk with them about their life expectancy. The themes that emerged from our study indicate that discussions of life expectancy could help older adults plan for the future, maintain open communication with their physicians, and provide them knowledge about their medical conditions. Conclusion The majority of the healthy older adults in this study were open to discussions about life expectancy in the context of discussing cancer screening tests, despite awareness that their physicians' estimates could be inaccurate

The estimation of labor life quality in regions of Russia

OpenAIRE

Yelena Leonidovna Andreyeva; Tatyana Vladimirovna Polkova

2013-01-01

The methodology of labor life quality estimation based on research of the social and labor sphere of Russia regions over the last 10 years is described in the article. The most significant components of the labor life quality, allowing to estimate the central problem places of the social and labor sphere (employment and unemployment, salary and income, qualification and labor productivity, safety and work organization, business and investment activity) are allocated and proved. On...

Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

2015-01-01

n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingstone, Shona J; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C; Lindsay, Robert S; Wild, Sarah H; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A; Morris, Andrew D; Pearson, Donald W M; Petrie, John R; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A; Traynor, Jamie P; Colhoun, Helen M

2015-01-06

Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on

PFP total operating efficiency calculation and basis of estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SINCLAIR, J.C.

1999-01-01

The purpose of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Total Operating Efficiency Calculation and Basis of Estimate document is to provide the calculated value and basis of estimate for the Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) for the material stabilization operations to be conducted in 234-52 Building. This information will be used to support both the planning and execution of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Stabilization and Deactivation Project's (hereafter called the Project) resource-loaded, integrated schedule

Estimating residual life of alloy 600 RPV penetrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunt, E.S.; White, G.A.; Pathania, R.; Arey, M.L.; Whitaker, D.E.

1996-01-01

Primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) of Alloy 600 penetrations PWR in reactor pressure vessel (RPV) heads has become a significant economic concern worldwide. PWSCC of these penetrations has led to extended maintenance outages, expensive inspections and repairs, and in some cases, replacement of the entire vessel head. This paper describes methodology developed to predict the remaining life of Alloy 600 penetrations in reactor vessel heads. Predictions of remaining life are an important input to planning models used by utilities to select a strategy for responding to the PWSCC issue at the lowest life cycle cost with an acceptably low risk of leakage. The remaining life of RPV penetrations is determined using the results of inspections of penetrations and statistical methods to predict future degradation. The analysis takes into account the effects of material properties, welding residual stresses, and operating temperature on PWSCC initiation and growth. The probability of developing cracks of various depths is assessed using Monte Carlo methods which provide for uncertainties in the input assumptions. For plants which have not yet performed inspections, remaining life predictions are based on inspection results from similar plants which have performed inspections with corrections made for known differences in design details, material properties and operating conditions

Improvement of life insurance-related accounting opera-tions within the New Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinică DOBRIN

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper outlines the life insurance-related accounting operations, in consideration to the harmonization of the Romanian legislation with the International Financial Reporting Standards. The main accounting operations specific to the life insurance sector include: accounting of revenues and expenses derived from life insurance operations (recording the premiums written, recording the payment of insurance premiums, termination of insurance policy, recording the compensation expenses, accounting of operations related to the setting up and using the technical reserves for life insurance (general principles, accounting of premium reserves, accounting of loss reserve, accounting of the reserve for benefits and discounts, accounting of mathematical reserve, accounting of other life insurance-related technical reserves.

Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaeser, J.L.

1996-01-01

A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

The estimation of labor life quality in regions of Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yelena Leonidovna Andreyeva

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The methodology of labor life quality estimation based on research of the social and labor sphere of Russia regions over the last 10 years is described in the article. The most significant components of the labor life quality, allowing to estimate the central problem places of the social and labor sphere (employment and unemployment, salary and income, qualification and labor productivity, safety and work organization, business and investment activity are allocated and proved. On the basis of an author’s calculation method of an integrated index of labor life quality of the population in regions of Russia are calculated and analyzed in dynamics. Regularities of formation of an integrated index of labor life quality in regions of Russia are revealed, ways of an assessment of efficiency of realized state programs in the social and labor sphere are planned.

Estimation of residual life of boiler tubes using steamside oxide scale thickness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vikrant, K.S.N.; Ramareddy, G.V.; Pavan, A.H.V.; Singh, Kulvir

2013-01-01

In thermal power plants, remaining-life-estimation of boiler tubes is required at regular intervals for a safer and a better functionality of boilers. In this paper, a new method is proposed for the residual life estimation of service exposed boiler tubes using Non-Destructive Ultrasonic Oxide scale thickness measurements, average metal temperature and creep master curve. While steady state conduction heat transfer equations are solved to calculate the average metal temperature, creep master curve is generated from short term stress rupture data of rupture life less than 5000 h on a virgin material. In the present study, the residual life of T22 (2.25Cr-1Mo) service exposed Platen Superheater tube is estimated using two master creep curves, i.e. Larson-Miller Parametric (LMP) method of standard ASME T22 creep data and Wilshire approach of short term stress rupture data of T22. As the residual life is calculated from fundamental conduction heat transfer theory and creep rupture data, the proposed method can be applied for different grades of boiler materials. -- Highlights: ► Residual life is calculated from non-destructive oxide scale thickness, creep master curve and average metal temperature. ► A new method is proposed for calculating residual life using above parameters and from conduction heat transfer principles. ► The method can be applied to different boiler grades for estimating residual life and hence the method is generic

Comparison of Plant Life Management Approaches for Long Term Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Kisig

2012-01-01

Plant life management can be defined as the integration of ageing and economic planning to maintain a high level of safety and optimize operations. Many Member States have given high priority to long term operation of nuclear power plants beyond the time frame originally anticipated (e. g. 30 or 40 years). Out of a total of 445 (369 GWe) operating nuclear power plants, 349 units (297 GWe) have been in operation for more than 20 years (as of November 2011). The need for engineering support to operation, maintenance, safety review and life management for long term operation as well as education and training in the field is increasingly evident. In addition the Fukushima accident has rendered all stake holders even more attentive to safety concerns and to the provision of beyond safety measures in the preparation and scrutiny of applications for operational design life extensions. In many countries, the safety performance of NPPs is periodically followed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) approach. The regulatory The regulatory review and acceptance of the PSR gives the licensee the permission to operate the plant for up to the end of the next PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and other countries operating US designed plants, the license renewal application is based on the five pre-requisite requirements and ageing management programme for passive long life system structure and components(SSCs) and active systems is adequately addressed by the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. Other Member States have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both PSR and additional LRA specific requirements primarily focused on time limited ageing analysis. Taking into account this variety of approaches, the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) initiated work for collecting and sharing information among Member States about good practices on plant life management for long term operation in

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook; Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui

2016-01-01

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook [Korea Aerospace Univ., Koyang (Korea, Republic of); Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui [Hyosung Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results.

Interpolation Inequalities and Spectral Estimates for Magnetic Operators

Science.gov (United States)

Dolbeault, Jean; Esteban, Maria J.; Laptev, Ari; Loss, Michael

2018-05-01

We prove magnetic interpolation inequalities and Keller-Lieb-Thir-ring estimates for the principal eigenvalue of magnetic Schr{\\"o}dinger operators. We establish explicit upper and lower bounds for the best constants and show by numerical methods that our theoretical estimates are accurate.

Estimation of fire frequency from PWR operating experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Barrachin, G.; Bonino, F.

1998-01-01

In the framework of a fire probabilistic safety assessment (Fire PSA), the French Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection (IPSN) has developed a method for estimating the frequency of fire in a nuclear power plant room. This method is based on the analysis of French Pressurized Water Reactors operating experience. The method adopted consists is carrying out an in-depth analysis of fire-related incidents. A database has been created including 202 fire events reported in 900 MWe and 1300 MWe reactors from the start of their commercial operation up to the first of March 1994, which represents a cumulated service life of 508 reactor-years. For each reported fire, several data were recorded among which: The operating state of the reactor in the stage preceding the fire, the building in which the fire broke out, the piece of equipment or the human intervention which caused the fire. Operating experience shows that most fires are initiated by electrical problems (short-circuits, arcing, faulty contacts, etc.) and that human intervention also plays an important role (grinding, cutting, welding, cleaning, etc.). A list of equipment and of human interventions which proved to be possible fire sources was therefore drawn up. the items of this list were distributed in 19 reference groups defined by taking into account the nature of the potential ignition source (transformers, electrical cabinets, pumps, fans, etc.). The fire frequency assigned to each reference group was figured out using the operating experience information of the database. The fire frequency in a room is considered to be made out of two contributions: one due to equipment which is proportional to the number of pieces of equipment from each reference group contained in the room, and a second one which is due to human interventions and assumed to be uniform throughout the reactor. Formulas to assess the fire frequencies in a room, the reactor being in a shutdown state or at power, are then proposed

Loss of life of induction motors under various operating anomalies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chugh, Tarun; Varde, P.V.

2016-01-01

Reliability studies conducted to study the various failure modes of all induction motors shows that one of failure modes i.e. winding failure is quite prevalent and accounts for high percentage of failures of motors. Thus, there is a pivotal need to understand the theory of winding failure and know how it can be prognosticated based on the input parameters, current operating environment and maintenance history of a motor. This paper defines loss of motor life as the loss of stator winding insulation life due to thermal and environmental stresses. From the thermal point of view, the stator winding insulation is the weakest part of a squirrel cage induction motor, and equations are developed to estimate the insulation Iife and hence the motor life. In this regard, an integrated model consisting of an electrical model, thermal model and insulation ageing model is developed to evaluate the effect of various anomalies/stressors e.g. overvoltage and voltage unbalance on the life of a motor. This model is used to quantify the loss of life of a 2.3 kW, 415 V induction motor. The electrical model is developed by conducting Open Circuit and Blocked Rotor Test on the motor and thereby deriving its equivalent circuit. Using the model, the stator winding losses are calculated and given as an input to the thermal model to find the temperature rise in the stator winding. The steady state temperature of the stator winding is given as an input to the insulation aging model which predicts the loss of life. This work presents a simple technique for calculating thermal parameters based on motor testing rather than from motor design data. The insulation ageing model is developed based on Eyring Equation considering temperature and humidity as stressors. (author)

An online method for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation using importance sampling and neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Ji; Zhang, Chenbin; Chen, Zonghai

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An online RUL estimation method for lithium-ion battery is proposed. • RUL is described by the difference among battery terminal voltage curves. • A feed forward neural network is employed for RUL estimation. • Importance sampling is utilized to select feed forward neural network inputs. - Abstract: An accurate battery remaining useful life (RUL) estimation can facilitate the design of a reliable battery system as well as the safety and reliability of actual operation. A reasonable definition and an effective prediction algorithm are indispensable for the achievement of an accurate RUL estimation result. In this paper, the analysis of battery terminal voltage curves under different cycle numbers during charge process is utilized for RUL definition. Moreover, the relationship between RUL and charge curve is simulated by feed forward neural network (FFNN) for its simplicity and effectiveness. Considering the nonlinearity of lithium-ion charge curve, importance sampling (IS) is employed for FFNN input selection. Based on these results, an online approach using FFNN and IS is presented to estimate lithium-ion battery RUL in this paper. Experiments and numerical comparisons are conducted to validate the proposed method. The results show that the FFNN with IS is an accurate estimation method for actual operation.

Anomaly Detection and Life Pattern Estimation for the Elderly Based on Categorization of Accumulated Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, Taketoshi; Ishino, Takahito; Noguchi, Hiroshi; Shimosaka, Masamichi; Sato, Tomomasa

2011-06-01

We propose a life pattern estimation method and an anomaly detection method for elderly people living alone. In our observation system for such people, we deploy some pyroelectric sensors into the house and measure the person's activities all the time in order to grasp the person's life pattern. The data are transferred successively to the operation center and displayed to the nurses in the center in a precise way. Then, the nurses decide whether the data is the anomaly or not. In the system, the people whose features in their life resemble each other are categorized as the same group. Anomalies occurred in the past are shared in the group and utilized in the anomaly detection algorithm. This algorithm is based on "anomaly score." The "anomaly score" is figured out by utilizing the activeness of the person. This activeness is approximately proportional to the frequency of the sensor response in a minute. The "anomaly score" is calculated from the difference between the activeness in the present and the past one averaged in the long term. Thus, the score is positive if the activeness in the present is higher than the average in the past, and the score is negative if the value in the present is lower than the average. If the score exceeds a certain threshold, it means that an anomaly event occurs. Moreover, we developed an activity estimation algorithm. This algorithm estimates the residents' basic activities such as uprising, outing, and so on. The estimation is shown to the nurses with the "anomaly score" of the residents. The nurses can understand the residents' health conditions by combining these two information.

Direct estimation of functionals of density operators by local operations and classical communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alves, Carolina Moura; Horodecki, Pawel; Oi, Daniel K. L.; Kwek, L. C.; Ekert, Artur K.

2003-01-01

We present a method of direct estimation of important properties of a shared bipartite quantum state, within the ''distant laboratories'' paradigm, using only local operations and classical communication. We apply this procedure to spectrum estimation of shared states, and locally implementable structural physical approximations to incompletely positive maps. This procedure can also be applied to the estimation of channel capacity and measures of entanglement

Material aging and degradation detection and remaining life assessment for plant life management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramuhalli, P.; Henager, C.H. Jr.; Griffin, J.W.; Meyer, R.M.; Coble, J.B.; Pitman, S.G.; Bond, L.J.

2012-01-01

One of the major factors that may impact long-term operations is structural material degradation. Detecting materials degradation, estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of the component, and determining approaches to mitigating the degradation are important from the perspective of long-term operations. In this study, multiple nondestructive measurement and monitoring methods were evaluated for their ability to assess the material degradation state. Metrics quantifying the level of damage from these measurements were defined and evaluated for their ability to provide estimates of remaining life of the component. An example of estimating the RUL from nondestructive measurements of material degradation condition is provided. (author)

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul R Torgerson

Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

$L^2$ estimates for the $\\bar \\partial$ operator

OpenAIRE

McNeal, Jeffery D.; Varolin, Dror

2015-01-01

This is a survey article about $L^2$ estimates for the $\\bar \\partial$ operator. After a review of the basic approach that has come to be called the "Bochner-Kodaira Technique", the focus is on twisted techniques and their applications to estimates for $\\bar \\partial$, to $L^2$ extension theorems, and to other problems in complex analysis and geometry, including invariant metric estimates and the $\\bar \\partial$-Neumann Problem.

Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagawa, Fumiyo; May, Margaret; Phillips, Andrew

2013-02-01

The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research. With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for. Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

2016-01-01

This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

Estimation of regulated term of technical systems further operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strel'nikov, V.P.

2008-01-01

The technique of estimating the regulated term of technical systems further operation on the basis of data on failures during operation and use of probabilistic-physical model of failures (DN-distribution) is proposed

An Estimation of Operator's Diagnostic Time for Feed-And-Bleed Operation under Various Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

2015-10-15

In order to assess realistic safety of plant, effects of interactions between components, operator, and plant condition are needed to be considered in the PSA model. One of the important issues to estimate the CDF is the estimation of human error probability (HEP). When an accident occurs, operators follow the emergency operating procedure and check various alarm, parameters, and signals. In the conventional Korean PSA model, the Korean standard HRA (K-HRA) method is used. In this method, the HEP is the sum of diagnosis error probability and execution error probability. A diagnosis error probability is expressed by the available time for diagnosis and adjusting performance shaping factors, and an execution error probability is a function of task type and stress level. Available time for diagnosis is very important factor of HEP. If the available time for diagnosis is short, the HEP becomes high. In order to obtain the realistic risk assessment results, we first focus on the estimation of HEP considering the plant dynamics under various scenarios. Target operation and scenarios are feed-and bleed operation (F and B operation) and total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident with/without loss of coolant accident (LOCA). One of the highest HEP is HEP of FnB operation. In additional, Scenarios, which are related to combination secondary heat removal failure and primary heat removal failure, are most critical core damage scenario of the combined accident except scenarios related to station black out (SBO). In these scenarios, the FnB operation is last resort to prevent core damage. To estimate available operator diagnosis time, we identify the relationship between accidents, mitigation function, and plant condition. Distribution of available time of diagnosis was estimated using the MOSAIQUE. The variables are break size, break timing, trip timing of RCP, and availability of high pressure safety injection (HPSI) pump under the TLOFW accident with LOCA. For Type 1 accident

PREMATH: a Precious-Material Holdup Estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichinsky, A.M.; Bruns, D.D.

1982-01-01

A computer program, PREMATH (Precious Material Holdup Estimator), has been developed to permit inventory estimation in vessels involved in unit operations and chemical processes. This program has been implemented in an operating nuclear fuel processing plant. PREMATH's purpose is to provide steady-state composition estimates for material residing in process vessels until representative samples can be obtained and chemical analyses can be performed. Since these compositions are used for inventory estimation, the results are determined for and cataloged in container-oriented files. The estimated compositions represent material collected in applicable vessels - including consideration for material previously acknowledged in these vessels. The program utilizes process measurements and simple material balance models to estimate material holdups and distribution within unit operations. During simulated run testing, PREMATH-estimated inventories typically produced material balances within 7% of the associated measured material balances for uranium and within 16% of the associated, measured material balances for thorium (a less valuable material than uranium) during steady-state process operation

NUMATH: a nuclear-material-holdup estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichinsky, A.M.

1981-01-01

A computer program, NUMATH (Nuclear Material Holdup Estimator), has been developed to permit inventory estimation in vessels involved in unit operations and chemical processes. This program has been implemented in an operating nuclear fuel processing plant. NUMATH's purpose is to provide steady-state composition estimates for material residing in process vessels until representative samples can be obtained and chemical analyses can be performed. Since these compositions are used for inventory estimation, the results are determined for and cataloged in container-oriented files. The estimated compositions represent material collected in applicable vessels-including consideration for material previously acknowledged in these vessels. The program utilizes process measurements and simple material balance models to estimate material holdups and distribution within unit operations. During simulated run testing, NUMATH-estimated inventories typically produced material balances within 7% of the associated measured material balances for uranium and within 16% of the associated, measured material balance for thorium during steady-state process operation

Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method

Science.gov (United States)

Sitarz, Piotr; Powałka, Bartosz

2018-01-01

Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is a common technique used to examine the dynamic properties of a system. Contrary to experimental modal analysis, the input signal is generated in object ambient environment. Operational modal analysis mainly aims at determining the number of pole pairs and at estimating modal parameters. Many methods are used for parameter identification. Some methods operate in time while others in frequency domain. The former use correlation functions, the latter - spectral density functions. However, while some methods require the user to select poles from a stabilisation diagram, others try to automate the selection process. Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method (DAC-OMA) presents a new approach to the problem, avoiding issues involved in the stabilisation diagram. The presented algorithm is fully automated. It uses deterministic methods to define the interval of estimated parameters, thus reducing the problem to optimisation task which is conducted with dedicated software based on ant colony optimisation algorithm. The combination of deterministic methods restricting parameter intervals and artificial intelligence yields very good results, also for closely spaced modes and significantly varied mode shapes within one measurement point.

Fatigue tests and life estimation of Incoloy alloy 908

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, J.; Toma, L.S.; Jang, C.H.; Steeves, M.M.

1997-01-01

Incoloy reg-sign alloy 908* is a candidate conduit material for Nb 3 Sn cable-in-conduit superconductors. The conduit is expected to experience cyclic loads at 4 K. Fatigue fracture of the conduit is one possible failure mode. So far, fatigue life has been estimated from fatigue crack growth data, which provide conservative results. The more traditional practice of life estimation using S-N curves has not been done for alloy 908 due to a lack of data at room and cryogenic temperatures. This paper presents a series of fatigue test results in response to this need. Tests were performed in reversed bending, rotating bending, and uniaxial fatigue machines. The test matrix included different heat treatments, two load ratios (R=-1 and 0.1), two temperatures (298 and 77 K), and two orientations (longitudinal and transverse). As expected, there is a semi-log linear relation between the applied stress and fatigue life above an applied stress (e.g., 310 MPa for tests at 298 K and R=-1). Below this stress the curves show an endurance limit. The aged and cold-worked materials have longer fatigue lives and higher endurance limits than the others. Different orientations have no apparent effect on life. Cryogenic temperature results in a much high fatigue life than room temperature. A higher tensile mean stress gives shorter fatigue life. It was also found that the fatigue lives of the reversed bending specimens were of the same order as those of the uniaxial test specimens, but were only half the lives of the rotating bending specimens for given stresses. A sample application of the S-N data is discussed

Estimation of failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Giménez, Ana; Gagliardi, Andrés; Ares, Gastón

2017-09-01

For most food products, shelf life is determined by changes in their sensory characteristics. A predetermined increase or decrease in the intensity of a sensory characteristic has frequently been used to signal that a product has reached the end of its shelf life. Considering all attributes change simultaneously, the concept of multivariate shelf life allows a single measurement of deterioration that takes into account all these sensory changes at a certain storage time. The aim of the present work was to apply survival analysis to estimate failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using two case studies, hamburger buns and orange juice, by modelling the relationship between consumers' rejection of the product and the deterioration index estimated using PCA. In both studies, a panel of 13 trained assessors evaluated the samples using descriptive analysis whereas a panel of 100 consumers answered a "yes" or "no" question regarding intention to buy or consume the product. PC1 explained the great majority of the variance, indicating all sensory characteristics evolved similarly with storage time. Thus, PC1 could be regarded as index of sensory deterioration and a single failure criterion could be estimated through survival analysis for 25 and 50% consumers' rejection. The proposed approach based on multivariate shelf life testing may increase the accuracy of shelf life estimations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of residual life of material of power plant construction elements after long-term operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osasyuk, V.V.

1989-01-01

Existing methods are analyzed for estimation of residual resource of elements of constructions, working in creep conditions. A suggested and experimentally verified new method of residual durability forecasting is described permitting the value of the supplementary resource to be specified according to the real state of the material after preoperation. Evaluation results are given for residual life of steam lines received by different methods and advantages of the technique proposed are shown. Reliability of the new technique is confirmed by steam line operation at thermal power plants

Life Limiting Issues for Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esselman, Thomas; Gaertner, John

2012-01-01

This paper reports on a study which identified and characterized life limiting issues for consideration by nuclear plant owners in their decision to extend plant life or seek subsequent license renewal. As nuclear plants operate for longer periods, the risk that a condition in the plant or an event that occurs, at the plant or elsewhere, will cause a plant owner not to extend plant life increases. The Fukushima accident has made this concept concrete. This paper defines 'Life Limiting' concepts for nuclear plants. It identifies the highest risk conditions and events that may limit duration of continued operation in nuclear plants and employs a survey to prioritize these concerns. Methods for evaluating these risks and changing the capability of systems, structures, and components (SSC) to reduce and manage this risk in long term operation are presented. Integrated obsolescence -the existence of an accumulation of events or condition that can threaten long term operation- is discussed. Many of the life limiting conditions or events may be controllable by early identification, recognition, and mitigation of the potential threat. The recognition of conditions may allow measures to be taken to mitigate the condition. Recognition of the potential for events that may be life limiting may allow actions to be taken that will minimize the likelihood or consequences of the event. These actions may include enhanced research on the expected behavior of the SSC, risk assessment and management, and enhanced monitoring and aging management at the plant. (author)

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions estimation for small hydropower schemes in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varun; Prakash, Ravi; Bhat, I.K.

2012-01-01

This paper presents for the first time correlations for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from small hydropower schemes in India. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop life cycle GHG emissions correlations for three different types of small hydropower schemes (run-of river, canal based and dam-toe) in India. It has been found out that GHG emissions depend on the head and capacity of the small hydropower project. The results obtained from correlations show good agreement with the estimated results using EIO-LCA (Economic Input–Output-Life Cycle Assessment) technique. These correlations may be useful for the development of new small hydropower (SHP) schemes, as they can be used to predict life cycle GHG emissions based on capacity, head and type of SHP schemes. -- Highlights: ► A study has been carried out for the Life Cycle Greenhouse gas emissions estimation for SHP schemes in India. ► Around 145 SHP schemes have been studied and their GHG emissions have been estimated. ► Based upon these results correlations have been developed for three different types of SHP schemes.

The Social Distribution of Health: Estimating Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy in England.

Science.gov (United States)

Love-Koh, James; Asaria, Miqdad; Cookson, Richard; Griffin, Susan

2015-07-01

To model the social distribution of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in England by combining survey data on health-related quality of life with administrative data on mortality. Health Survey for England data sets for 2010, 2011, and 2012 were pooled (n = 35,062) and used to model health-related quality of life as a function of sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES). Office for National Statistics mortality rates were used to construct life tables for age-sex-SES groups. These quality-of-life and length-of-life estimates were then combined to predict QALE as a function of these characteristics. Missing data were imputed, and Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate standard errors. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore alternative regression models and measures of SES. Socioeconomic inequality in QALE at birth was estimated at 11.87 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with a sex difference of 1 QALY. When the socioeconomic-sex subgroups are ranked by QALE, a differential of 10.97 QALYs is found between the most and least healthy quintile groups. This differential can be broken down into a life expectancy difference of 7.28 years and a quality-of-life adjustment of 3.69 years. The methods proposed in this article refine simple binary quality-adjustment measures such as the widely used disability-free life expectancy, providing a more accurate picture of overall health inequality in society than has hitherto been available. The predictions also lend themselves well to the task of evaluating the health inequality impact of interventions in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis for the life extension estimate of the high flux isotope reactor vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, S.J.

1997-01-01

The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in the nil ductility temperature (NDT). This temperature is sometimes referred to as the brittle-ductile transition temperature (DBT) for fracture. The life extension of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics. A new method of fracture probability calculation is presented in this paper. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest) is used to determine the life of the vessel. The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. It is then followed by using fracture mechanics to project the safe reactor operation time from the time of the satisfactory hydrostatic test. The life extension calculation provides the following information on the remaining life of the reactor as a function of the NDT increase: (1) the life of the vessel is determined by the probability of vessel fracture as a result of hydrotest at several hydrotest pressures and vessel embrittlement conditions, (2) the hydrotest time interval vs the NDT increase rate, and (3) the hydrotest pressure vs the NDT increase rate. It is understood that the use of a complete range of uncertainties of the NDT increase is equivalent to the entire range of radiation damage that can be experienced by the vessel steel. From the numerical values for the probabilities of the vessel fracture as a result of hydrotest, it is estimated that the reactor vessel life can be extended up to 50 EFPY (100 MW) with the minimum vessel operating temperature equal to 85 degrees F

Evaluation of operating experience for service life of components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulz, H.; Sunder, R.

1987-01-01

The evaluation of the operating experience of German light-water reactor components based on licensee event reports indicates that a large part of the defects and failures are caused by fatigue and/or corrosion type mechanisms. Actions have been taken to eliminate the causes by redesigning systems, replacement of components and change of operating procedures. The interaction of fatigue and corrosion mechanisms are not understood in all details today, further research is still necessary. To establish a more realistic data base of the local loading and water chemistry condition for all loading conditions the application of advanced monitoring systems is proposed. The benefits of these systems are that the operating procedures can be further optimized, the actual used life time fraction can be calculated regularly and the data base can be used for life time extension. (orig.) [de

Lithium-ion Battery Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nabil Laayouj

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract—Prognostic activity deals with prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL of physical systems based on their actual health state and their usage conditions. RUL estimation gives operators a potent tool in decision making by quantifying how much time is left until functionality is lost. In addition, it can be used to improve the characterization of the material proprieties that govern damage propagation for the structure being monitored. RUL can be estimated by using three main approaches, namely model-based, data-driven and hybrid approaches. The prognostics methods used later in this paper are hybrid and data-driven approaches, which employ the Particle Filter in the first one and the autoregressive integrated moving average in the second. The performance of the suggested approaches is evaluated in a comparative study on data collected from lithium-ion battery of hybrid electric vehicle.

Operational Modal Analysis based Stress Estimation in Friction Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarpø, Marius; Friis, Tobias; Nabuco, Bruna

this assumption. In this paper, the precision of estimating the strain response of a nonlinear system is investigated using the operational response of numerical simulations. Local nonlinearities are introduced by adding friction to the test specimen and this paper finds that this approach of strain estimation...

Operator Bias in the Estimation of Arc Efficiency in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fredrik Sikström

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper the operator bias in the measurement process of arc efficiency in stationary direct current electrode negative gas tungsten arc welding is discussed. An experimental study involving 15 operators (enough to reach statistical significance has been carried out with the purpose to estimate the arc efficiency from a specific procedure for calorimetric experiments. The measurement procedure consists of three manual operations which introduces operator bias in the measurement process. An additional relevant experiment highlights the consequences of estimating the arc voltage by measuring the potential between the terminals of the welding power source instead of measuring the potential between the electrode contact tube and the workpiece. The result of the study is a statistical evaluation of the operator bias influence on the estimate, showing that operator bias is negligible in the estimate considered here. On the contrary the consequences of neglecting welding leads voltage drop results in a significant under estimation of the arc efficiency.

Heat kernel estimates for pseudodifferential operators, fractional Laplacians and Dirichlet-to-Neumann operators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gimperlein, Heiko; Grubb, Gerd

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to establish upper and lower estimates for the integral kernel of the semigroup exp(−t P) associated to a classical, strongly elliptic pseudodifferential operator P of positive order on a closed manifold. The Poissonian bounds generalize those obtained for perturbat......The purpose of this article is to establish upper and lower estimates for the integral kernel of the semigroup exp(−t P) associated to a classical, strongly elliptic pseudodifferential operator P of positive order on a closed manifold. The Poissonian bounds generalize those obtained...... for perturbations of fractional powers of the Laplacian. In the selfadjoint case, extensions to t∈C+  are studied. In particular, our results apply to the Dirichlet-to-Neumann semigroup....

Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

2014-08-19

The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

Enhanced design, operation and maintenance practices for a longer plant service life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raimondo, E.; Courcoux, A.

2004-01-01

Plant service life problems have been under detailed investigation in France and the experience acquired by our company over the past 25 years in the design, construction and maintenance of Pressurized Water Reactors has contributed to develop skills, equipment and capabilities available for efficient plant aging management and component service life extension. The service life of a nuclear power plant is deeply dependant of the provisions made during the design stage, directly linked to good operating conditions and adequate maintenance practices. This paper presents the importance of these three steps (design, operation and maintenance) for plant service life concern. (author)

A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

Science.gov (United States)

Remer, D. S.

1977-01-01

A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

Integration of plant life management in operation and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutin, Jean-Pierre

2002-01-01

Full text: 1 - INTRODUCTION. Electricite de France is now operating 58 PWR nuclear power plants which produce 75% of french electricity. Besides maintaining safety and availability on a routine basis, it is outmost important to protect the investment. Indeed, such an asset is a tremendous advantage just as the company is going to face the new european electricity market. That is the reason why EDF is devoting important effort to implement ageing management as an integral part of operation and maintenance programs. But it must be recognized that NPP lifetime is not threatened only by component-related problems: other less technical issues must be seriously considered like industrial support, information system, skilled people, public acceptance, etc. 2 - LIFE MANAGEMENT POLICY. In France, there is no limited licensing period for NPPs. The life management policy of nuclear power plants is based on three principles: - safe and cost-effective operation, looking for excellence in daily activities, with an effective experience feedback organisation taking advantage of the high level of standardization of the units, - every ten years, a new set of safety standards, a complete review of each facility and an upgrading of its safety level through appropriate modifications while maintaining unit standardization in all the fleet, - a Life Management Program, at corporate level, which permanently scrutinizes operation and maintenance activities to identify decisions which could impair plant lifetime and which surveys research and development programs related to ageing phenomenon understanding. 3 - INTEGRATION OF LIFETIME CONCERN IN O and M ACTIVITIES. It is outmost important to take in account lifetime concern in daily operation and maintenance activities and this must be done as early as possible in plant life. Even though sophisticated assessments require engineering capacity, many good ideas may arise from plant staff. For that reason, increasing lifetime awareness of plant

One method for life time estimation of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving

Science.gov (United States)

Vîlceanu, Fl; Iancu, C.

2016-08-01

Rehabilitation of outdated equipment with lifetime expired, or in the ultimate life period, together with high cost investments for their replacement, makes rational the efforts made to extend their life. Rehabilitation involves checking operational safety based on relevant expertise of metal structures supporting effective resistance and assessing the residual lifetime. The bucket wheel machine for coal constitute basic machine within deposits of coal of power plants. The estimate of remaining life can be done by checking the loading on the most stressed subassembly by Finite Element Analysis on a welding detail. The paper presents step-by-step the method of calculus applied in order to establishing the residual lifetime of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving using non-destructive methods of study (fatigue cracking analysis + FEA). In order to establish the actual state of machine and areas subject to study, was done FEA of this mining equipment, performed on the geometric model of mechanical analyzed structures, with powerful CAD/FEA programs. By applying the method it can be calculated residual lifetime, by extending the results from the most stressed area of the equipment to the entire machine, and thus saving time and money from expensive replacements.

Life Cycle Costs in Education: Operations & Maintenance Considered.

Science.gov (United States)

Moussatche, Helena; Languell-Urquhart, Jennifer; Woodson, Carol

2000-01-01

Discusses life cycle cost analysis when deciding on flooring finishes and examines operations and maintenance cost effectiveness relative to hard, resilient, and soft flooring. A chart of evaluated flooring materials' characteristics, appropriate maintenance procedures, and recommended frequency is included. (GR)

Operative needs in HIV+ populations: An estimation for sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherewick, Megan L; Cherewick, Steven D; Kushner, Adam L

2017-05-01

In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV globally and approximately 25.5 million of those people were living in sub-Saharan Africa. Limitations in the availability and access to adequate operative care require policy and planning to enhance operative capacity. Data estimating the total number of persons living with HIV by country, sex, and age group were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) in 2015. Using minimum proposed surgical rates per 100,000 for 4, defined, sub-Saharan regions of Africa, country-specific and regional estimates were calculated. The total need and unmet need for operative procedures were estimated. A minimum of 1,539,138 operative procedures were needed in 2015 for the 25.5 million persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, there was an unmet need of 908,513 operative cases in sub-Saharan Africa with the greatest unmet need in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (427,820) and western sub-Saharan Africa (325,026). Approximately 55.6% of the total need for operative cases is adult women, 38.4% are adult men, and 6.0% are among children under the age of 15. A minimum of 1.5 million operative procedures annually are required to meet the needs of persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The unmet need for operative care is greatest in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa and will require investments in personnel, infrastructure, facilities, supplies, and equipment. We highlight the need for global planning and investment in resources to meet targets of operative capacity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lessons Learned for Planning and Estimating Operations Support Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Newhouse, Marilyn

2011-01-01

Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead projects to focus on hardware development schedules and costs, de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations, and any LCC growth can directly impact the programs ability to fund new missions. The D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center recently studied cost overruns for 7 D&NF missions related to phase C/D development of operational capabilities and phase E mission operations. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential operations risks and controlling the associated impacts to operations development and execution costs. The study found that the drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This presentation summarizes the study and the results, providing a set of lessons NASA can use to improve early estimation and validation of operations costs.

A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

Science.gov (United States)

1994-09-01

Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

Blade Bearing Friction Estimation of Operating Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perisic, Nevena; Pedersen, Bo Juul; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

2012-01-01

Blade root bearing on a wind turbine (WTG) enables pitching of blades for power control and rotor braking and is a WTG critical component. As the size of modern WTGs is constantly increasing, this leads to relatively less rigid bearings, more sensitive to deformations, thus WTG operational...... reliability can be increased by continuous monitoring of blade bearing. High blade bearing friction is undesirable, as it may be associated with excessive heating of the surfaces, damage and/or inefficient operation. Thus, continuous observation of bearing friction level is crucial for blade bearing health...... monitoring systems. A novel algorithm for online monitoring of bearing friction level is developed combining physical knowledge about pitch system dynamics with state estimator, i.e. observer theory and signal processing assuming realistic sensor availability. Results show estimation of bearing friction...

Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihai Florian

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair and replacement activities as well as large revenue losses, mainly in the case of offshore wind farms. The recent development and evolution of condition monitoring techniques, as well as the fact that an increasing number of installed turbines are equipped with online monitoring systems, offers a large amount of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law approach. The model is used within a risk-based maintenance decision framework to optimize maintenance planning for the blades lifetime.

Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

2004-01-01

At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

Estimated water requirements for gold heap-leach operations

Science.gov (United States)

Bleiwas, Donald I.

2012-01-01

This report provides a perspective on the amount of water necessary for conventional gold heap-leach operations. Water is required for drilling and dust suppression during mining, for agglomeration and as leachate during ore processing, to support the workforce (requires water in potable form and for sanitation), for minesite reclamation, and to compensate for water lost to evaporation and leakage. Maintaining an adequate water balance is especially critical in areas where surface and groundwater are difficult to acquire because of unfavorable climatic conditions [arid conditions and (or) a high evaporation rate]; where there is competition with other uses, such as for agriculture, industry, and use by municipalities; and where compliance with regulatory requirements may restrict water usage. Estimating the water consumption of heap-leach operations requires an understanding of the heap-leach process itself. The task is fairly complex because, although they all share some common features, each gold heap-leach operation is unique. Also, estimating the water consumption requires a synthesis of several fields of science, including chemistry, ecology, geology, hydrology, and meteorology, as well as consideration of economic factors.

Estimation of quality of life in haemodialysis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Abraham, S; Ramachandran, A

2012-11-01

Since haemodialysis is an expensive treatment modality for chronic renal failure patients, it is very essential to assess the outcome of therapy in terms of quality of life. The primary objective of the study was to estimate the effect of patient counselling in quality of life of end stage renal disease patients opting haemodialysis using World Health Organisation Quality of life scale and to assess the variables affecting the quality of life of these patients. Quality of life was determined by World Health Organisation Quality of life scale questionnaire comprised of 26 items which measures four domains: physical, psychological, social and environmental domain. A total of 81 patients were selected and divided into test and control group and the test group patients received counselling regarding their disease, use of medications, importance of adherence and the complications experienced during and after dialysis. The quality of life data was collected at the interval of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months and the patients were counselled at each interval. The demographic profiles revealed that majority of the patients were in the age group of 31-50 and there exists a male predominance. About the socioeconomic status, upper middle class people were mostly affected. Assessment of impact of patient counselling in the quality of life of haemodialysis indicated a significant improvement in each domain after counselling. And also found that the psychological domain showed a significant increase in the score compared to others. Patient counselling helped to gain benefits in terms of improvement in quality of life and delayed progression of renal failure. Early recognition and prevention is necessary to improve the quality of life of chronic renal failure patients. Patient counselling should be made mandatory by incorporating clinical pharmacist in the nephrology team to make the patient understand his illness and modifications in lifestyle also create a positive environment and

Application of coating and base material living models to evaluate degradation and estimate the mean local operating temperature of two ex-service 1{sup st} stage blades

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandelli, M. [Proing Italia, Torbole sul Garda, Trento (Italy); Rinaldi, C. [ERSE, Milan (Italy); Vacchieri, E. [Ansaldo Energia S.p.A., Genoa (Italy)

2010-07-01

In the frame of the collaborative program COST 538 a coating life prediction code was implemented by Proing and ERSE with an inverse problem solution routine able to calculate the local mean operating temperature from the operating conditions and the extension of the coating depleted regions. Moreover base material degradation models were developed by Ansaldo Energia on both equiaxed and single crystal superalloys. This paper describes the application of such methodologies to two ex-service 1st stage gas turbine blades delivered to COST 538 by AEN after operation in two different plants with different operating conditions. The objective of the study was the application and validation of an innovative NDT and the estimate of the mean operating temperature at different positions of the components. The destructive metallographic analysis of the blades let to validate the non destructive frequency scanning eddy current technique (F-SECT). Coating life modelling results are compared with those of the base material degradation models. An interesting correlation was found between the estimated temperatures with the two methods and also with the NDT findings at the most significant component positions. (orig.)

Nuclear power plant life management and longer-term operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This book, prepared by NEA member country experts, contains data and analyses relevant to nuclear power plant life management and the plants' extended, longer-term operation (LTO). It addresses technical, economic and environmental aspects and provides insights into the benefits and challenges of plant life management and LTO. It will be of interest to policy makers and senior managers in the nuclear power sector and governmental bodies involved in nuclear power programme design and management. The data and information on current trends in nuclear power plant life management will be useful to researchers and analysts working in the field of nuclear energy system assessment. (authors)

Approach to Operational Experimental Estimation of Static Stresses of Elements of Mechanical Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Sedov, A. V.; Kalinchuk, V. V.; Bocharova, O. V.

2018-01-01

The evaluation of static stresses and strength of units and components is a crucial task for increasing reliability in the operation of vehicles and equipment, to prevent emergencies, especially in structures made of metal and composite materials. At the stage of creation and commissioning of structures to control the quality of manufacturing of individual elements and components, diagnostic control methods are widely used. They are acoustic, ultrasonic, X-ray, radiation methods and others. The using of these methods to control the residual life and the degree of static stresses of units and parts during operation is fraught with great difficulties both in methodology and in instrumentation. In this paper, the authors propose an effective approach of operative control of the degree of static stresses of units and parts of mechanical structures which are in working condition, based on recording the changing in the surface wave properties of a system consisting of a sensor and a controlled environment (unit, part). The proposed approach of low-frequency diagnostics of static stresses presupposes a new adaptive-spectral analysis of a surface wave created by external action (impact). It is possible to estimate implicit stresses of structures in the experiment due to this approach.

Pose estimation of industrial objects towards robot operation

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Jie; Zhou, Fuqiang; Tan, Haishu; Cao, Yu

2017-10-01

With the advantages of wide range, non-contact and high flexibility, the visual estimation technology of target pose has been widely applied in modern industry, robot guidance and other engineering practices. However, due to the influence of complicated industrial environment, outside interference factors, lack of object characteristics, restrictions of camera and other limitations, the visual estimation technology of target pose is still faced with many challenges. Focusing on the above problems, a pose estimation method of the industrial objects is developed based on 3D models of targets. By matching the extracted shape characteristics of objects with the priori 3D model database of targets, the method realizes the recognition of target. Thus a pose estimation of objects can be determined based on the monocular vision measuring model. The experimental results show that this method can be implemented to estimate the position of rigid objects based on poor images information, and provides guiding basis for the operation of the industrial robot.

Developing and testing an operational framework for assessing quality of life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fahy, F.; O Cinneide, M.

2008-01-01

Difficulties with operationalising the concept of sustainable development have generated much debate, and have stimulated a good deal of research on the challenging task of assessing progress towards that goal. This paper focuses on quality of life, as one discourse in the sustainable development literature, and reports on the development and testing of an operational framework for the assessment of quality of life in an urban setting. Core principles of sustainable development are translated into a set of operational criteria for investigating quality of life. The process of formulating these criteria and the manner in which they may be linked to policy and practice are outlined. The application of the framework is demonstrated by reference to the experience of implementing it in an urban centre in Ireland

Estimating the remanent life of boiler pressure parts: Pt. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Askins, M.C.

1988-04-01

A cast of 1Cr1/2Mo steel has been creep tested in argon at stresses in the range 34-80 MPa and temperatures between 590-630 0 C in various heat treatment states, including normalized and tempered, and overaged. To assess their use in remanent life evaluations, various techniques have been used including hardness, bulk extraction of carbides and X-ray examination of the phases present, determination of matrix solute content, X-ray determination of the matrix lattice parameter and carbide extraction replication of the structure and measurement of various interparticle spacing parameters. The dependence of the spacing on time and temperature has been established and used to calibrate a model of tertiary creep for the material, based on the coarsening of the interparticle separation. The model is shown to match and predict the material's behaviour well. In application to plant the interparticle spacing can be determined from a small sample removed from the component. The model can be used to give estimates of the time to rupture, or more usefully, estimate the time to any given strain. Of all the techniques used, interparticle spacing determinations give the best estimates of remanent life. (author)

Residual life estimation of cracked aircraft structural components

OpenAIRE

Maksimović, Mirko S.; Vasović, Ivana V.; Maksimović, Katarina S.; Trišović, Nataša; Maksimović, Stevan M.

2018-01-01

The subject of this investigation is focused on developing computation procedure for strength analysis of damaged aircraft structural components with respect to fatigue and fracture mechanics. For that purpose, here will be defined computation procedures for residual life estimation of aircraft structural components such as wing skin and attachment lugs under cyclic loads of constant amplitude and load spectrum. A special aspect of this investigation is based on using of the Strain Energy Den...

Life extension of semi-submersible drilling unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadley, I.; Sinclair, C.I.K. [TWI, Cambridge (United Kingdom). Structural Integrity Dept.; Magne, E. [Schlumberger Sedco Forex, Montrouge (France)

1995-12-31

This paper describes the life extension of a semi-submersible drilling rig built in the early 1970`s. A nominal design life of 20 years was estimated at the time of building; however, in the interim period, numerous improvements have been made in fatigue life estimation ad life improvement techniques, raising the possibility that a further 20 years of operation could be considered. The life extension strategy made use of a number of aspects of offshore technology which were not available at the time of construction of the rig. Finite element studies and results from offshore research programs were used to gauge the effect of fatigue life improvement techniques. The program demonstrated the feasibility of extending the operation of the rig for a further 20 years, with the interval between in-service inspection increased to every five years. It also provided a valuable database of fracture toughness data for the rig materials, which may be used in future work to address reliability issues.

Estimating NIRR-1 burn-up and core life time expectancy using the codes WIMS and CITATION

Science.gov (United States)

Yahaya, B.; Ahmed, Y. A.; Balogun, G. I.; Agbo, S. A.

The Nigeria Research Reactor-1 (NIRR-1) is a low power miniature neutron source reactor (MNSR) located at the Centre for Energy Research and Training, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Nigeria. The reactor went critical with initial core excess reactivity of 3.77 mk. The NIRR-1 cold excess reactivity measured at the time of commissioning was determined to be 4.97 mk, which is more than the licensed range of 3.5-4 mk. Hence some cadmium poison worth -1.2 mk was inserted into one of the inner irradiation sites which act as reactivity regulating device in order to reduce the core excess reactivity to 3.77 mk, which is within recommended licensed range of 3.5 mk and 4.0 mk. In this present study, the burn-up calculations of the NIRR-1 fuel and the estimation of the core life time expectancy after 10 years (the reactor core expected cycle) have been conducted using the codes WIMS and CITATION. The burn-up analyses carried out indicated that the excess reactivity of NIRR-1 follows a linear decreasing trend having 216 Effective Full Power Days (EFPD) operations. The reactivity worth of top beryllium shim data plates was calculated to be 19.072 mk. The result of depletion analysis for NIRR-1 core shows that (7.9947 ± 0.0008) g of U-235 was consumed for the period of 12 years of operating time. The production of the build-up of Pu-239 was found to be (0.0347 ± 0.0043) g. The core life time estimated in this research was found to be 30.33 years. This is in good agreement with the literature

Life cycle evaluation of an intercooled gas turbine plant used in conjunction with renewable energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thank-God Isaiah

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The life cycle estimation of power plants is important for gas turbine operators. With the introduction of wind energy into the grid, gas turbine operators now operate their plants in Load–Following modes as back-ups to the renewable energy sources which include wind, solar, etc. The motive behind this study is to look at how much life is consumed when an intercooled power plant with 100 MW power output is used in conjunction with wind energy. This operation causes fluctuations because the wind energy is unpredictable and overtime causes adverse effects on the life of the plant – The High Pressure Turbine Blades. Such fluctuations give rise to low cycle fatigue and creep failure of the blades depending on the operating regime used. A performance based model that is capable of estimating the life consumed of an intercooled power plant has been developed. The model has the capability of estimating the life consumed based on seasonal power demands and operations. An in-depth comparison was undertaken on the life consumed during the seasons of operation and arrives at the conclusion that during summer, the creep and low cycle life is consumed higher than the rest periods. A comparison was also made to determine the life consumed between Load–Following and stop/start operating scenarios. It was also observed that daily creep life consumption in summer was higher than the winter period in-spite of having lower average daily operating hours in a Start–Stop operating scenario.

Grasping and Placing Operation for Labware Transportation in Life Science Laboratories using Mobile Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed Myasar Ali

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In automated working environments, mobile robots can be used for different purposes such as material handling, domestic services, and objects transportation. This work presents a grasping and placing operation for multiple labware and tube racks in life science laboratories using the H20 mobile robots. The H20 robot has dual arms where each arm consists of 6 revolute joints with 6-DOF and 2-DOF grippers. The labware, which have to be manipulated and transported, contain chemical and biological components. Therefore, an accurate approach for object recognition and position estimation is required. The recognition and pose estimation of the desired objects are very essential to guide the robotic arm in the manipulation tasks. In this work, the problem statement of H20 transportation system with the proposed methodology are presented. Different strategies (visual and non-visual of labware manipulation using mobile robots are described. The H20 robot is equipped with a Kinect V2 sensor to identify and estimate the position of the target. The local features recognition based on SURF algorithm (Speeded-Up Robust Features is used. The recognition process is performed for the required labware and holder to perform the grasping and placing operation. A strategy is proposed to find the required holder and to check its emptiness for the placing tasks. Different styles of grippers and labware containers are used to manipulate different weights of labware and to realize a safe transportation. The parts of mobile robot transportation system are communicated with each other using Asynchronous socket Channels.

Essential spectra and exponential estimates of eigenfunctions of lattice operators of quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabinovich, Vladimir S; Roch, Steffen

2009-01-01

This paper is devoted to estimates of the exponential decay of eigenfunctions of difference operators on the lattice Z n which are discrete analogs of the Schroedinger, Dirac and square-root Klein-Gordon operators. Our investigation of the essential spectra and the exponential decay of eigenfunctions of the discrete spectra is based on the calculus of pseudodifference operators (i.e., pseudodifferential operators on the group Z n with analytic symbols), and the limit operators method. We obtain a description of the location of the essential spectra and estimates of the eigenfunctions of the discrete spectra of the main lattice operators of quantum mechanics, namely: matrix Schroedinger operators on Z n , Dirac operators on Z 3 and square root Klein-Gordon operators on Z n .

Improved protocol and data analysis for accelerated shelf-life estimation of solid dosage forms.

Science.gov (United States)

Waterman, Kenneth C; Carella, Anthony J; Gumkowski, Michael J; Lukulay, Patrick; MacDonald, Bruce C; Roy, Michael C; Shamblin, Sheri L

2007-04-01

To propose and test a new accelerated aging protocol for solid-state, small molecule pharmaceuticals which provides faster predictions for drug substance and drug product shelf-life. The concept of an isoconversion paradigm, where times in different temperature and humidity-controlled stability chambers are set to provide a critical degradant level, is introduced for solid-state pharmaceuticals. Reliable estimates for temperature and relative humidity effects are handled using a humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation, where temperature and relative humidity are assumed to be orthogonal. Imprecision is incorporated into a Monte-Carlo simulation to propagate the variations inherent in the experiment. In early development phases, greater imprecision in predictions is tolerated to allow faster screening with reduced sampling. Early development data are then used to design appropriate test conditions for more reliable later stability estimations. Examples are reported showing that predicted shelf-life values for lower temperatures and different relative humidities are consistent with the measured shelf-life values at those conditions. The new protocols and analyses provide accurate and precise shelf-life estimations in a reduced time from current state of the art.

Integrated Life Cycle Management: A Strategy for Plants to Extend Operating Lifetimes Safely with High Operational Reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esselman, Thomas; Bruck, Paul; Mengers, Charles

2012-01-01

Nuclear plant operators are studying the possibility of extending their existing generating facilities operating lifetime to 60 years and beyond. Many nuclear plants have been granted licenses to operate their facilities beyond the original 40 year term; however, in order to optimize the long term operating strategies, plant decision-makers need a consistent approach to support their options. This paper proposes a standard methodology to support effective decision-making for the long-term management of selected station assets. Methods detailed are intended to be used by nuclear plant site management, equipment reliability personnel, long term planners, capital asset planners, license renewal staff, and others that intend to look at operation between the current time and the end of operation. This methodology, named Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM), will provide a technical basis to assist decision makers regarding the timing of large capital investments required to get to the end of operation safely and with high plant reliability. ILCM seeks to identify end of life cycle failure probabilities for individual plant large capital assets and attendant costs associated with their refurbishment or replacement. It will provide a standard basis for evaluation of replacement and refurbishment options for these components. ILCM will also develop methods to integrate the individual assets over the entire plant thus assisting nuclear plant decision-makers in their facility long term operating strategies. (author)

New population and life expectancy estimates for the Indigenous population of Australia's Northern Territory, 1966-2011.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tom Wilson

Full Text Available The Indigenous population of Australia suffers considerable disadvantage across a wide range of socio-economic indicators, and is therefore the focus of many policy initiatives attempting to 'close the gap' between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Unfortunately, past population estimates have proved unreliable as denominators for these indicators. The aim of the paper is to contribute more robust estimates for the Northern Territory Indigenous population for the period 1966-2011, and hence estimate one of the most important of socio-economic indicators, life expectancy at birth.A consistent time series of population estimates from 1966 to 2011, based off the more reliable 2011 official population estimates, was created by a mix of reverse and forward cohort survival. Adjustments were made to ensure sensible sex ratios and consistency with recent birth registrations. Standard life table methods were employed to estimate life expectancy. Drawing on an approach from probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals surrounding population numbers and life expectancies were estimated.The Northern Territory Indigenous population in 1966 numbered between 23,800 and 26,100, compared to between 66,100 and 73,200 in 2011. In 1966-71 Indigenous life expectancy at birth lay between 49.1 and 56.9 years for males and between 49.7 and 57.9 years for females, whilst by 2006-11 it had increased to between 60.5 and 66.2 years for males and between 65.4 and 70.8 for females. Over the last 40 years the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed, fluctuating at about 17 years for both males and females. Whilst considerable progress has been made in closing the gap in under-five mortality, at most other ages the mortality rate differential has increased.A huge public health challenge remains. Efforts need to be redoubled to reduce the large gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.

Norm estimates of complex symmetric operators applied to quantum systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prodan, Emil; Garcia, Stephan R; Putinar, Mihai

2006-01-01

This paper communicates recent results in the theory of complex symmetric operators and shows, through two non-trivial examples, their potential usefulness in the study of Schroedinger operators. In particular, we propose a formula for computing the norm of a compact complex symmetric operator. This observation is applied to two concrete problems related to quantum mechanical systems. First, we give sharp estimates on the exponential decay of the resolvent and the single-particle density matrix for Schroedinger operators with spectral gaps. Second, we provide new ways of evaluating the resolvent norm for Schroedinger operators appearing in the complex scaling theory of resonances

ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A. Swanson

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucky Tedrow

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

29 CFR 784.108 - Operations not included in named operations on forms of aquatic “life.”

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... subject matter of the exemptions is concerned with “aquatic forms of animal and vegetable life,” the..., novelties, liquid glue, isinglass, pearl essence, and fortified or refined fish oil is not within these... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Operations not included in named operations on forms of...

Operator support through modern optimal estimation and control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burdick, G.R.

1980-01-01

Applications of Modern Optimal Estimation and Control Theories are late in coming to the nuclear industry. Some features of the theories that might be exploited in nuclear systems applications are described. Activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory relating to operator support using those theories are identified and some implementation challenges are discussed

Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

Operational plans for life science payloads - From experiment selection through postflight reporting

Science.gov (United States)

Mccollum, G. W.; Nelson, W. G.; Wells, G. W.

1976-01-01

Key features of operational plans developed in a study of the Space Shuttle era life science payloads program are presented. The data describes the overall acquisition, staging, and integration of payload elements, as well as program implementation methods and mission support requirements. Five configurations were selected as representative payloads: (a) carry-on laboratories - medical emphasis experiments, (b) mini-laboratories - medical/biology experiments, (c) seven-day dedicated laboratories - medical/biology experiments, (d) 30-day dedicated laboratories - Regenerative Life Support Evaluation (RLSE) with selected life science experiments, and (e) Biomedical Experiments Scientific Satellite (BESS) - extended duration primate (Type I) and small vertebrate (Type II) missions. The recommended operational methods described in the paper are compared to the fundamental data which has been developed in the life science Spacelab Mission Simulation (SMS) test series. Areas assessed include crew training, experiment development and integration, testing, data-dissemination, organization interfaces, and principal investigator working relationships.

Eigenvalue estimates of positive integral operators with analytic ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Eigenvalue estimates of positive integral operators. 337 will be used to denote, respectively, the complex line integral of f along γ and the integral of f with respect to arc-length measure. In the first case we assume γ has an orientation. The notation Lp(γ ) will denote the Lp space of normalized arc length measure on γ with.

Estimating the energy saving potential of telecom operators in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Tian-Jian; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Jin; Peng, Ruo-Hong

2013-01-01

A set of models are employed to estimate the potential of total energy saved of productions and segmented energy saving for telecom operators in China. During the estimation, the total energy saving is divided into that by technology and management, which are derived from technical reform and progress, and management control measures and even marketing respectively, and the estimating methodologies for energy saving potential of each segment are elaborated. Empirical results from China Mobile indicate that, first, the technical advance in communications technology accounts for the largest proportion (70%–80%) of the total energy saved of productions in telecom sector of China. Second, technical reform brings about 20%–30% of the total energy saving. Third, the proportions of energy saving brought by marketing and control measures appear relatively smaller, just less than 3%. Therefore, China's telecom operators should seize the opportunity of the revolution of communications network techniques in recent years to create an advanced network with lower energy consumption

Plant life management for long term operation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The world's fleet of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) is approximately 20 years old on average, and most plants are believed to be able to operate for 60 years or more. The design life of a NPP is typically 30 to 40 years. This may be extended by 10 to 20 years, or more, provided that the plant can demonstrate by analysis, trending, equipment and system upgrades, increased vigilance, testing, ageing management, and other means that license renewal presents no threat to public health and safety. The basic goal of Plant Life Management (PLiM) is to satisfy requirements for safe long-term supplies of electricity in an economically competitive way. The basic goal of the operating company and the owners to operate as long as economically reasonable and possible from safety point of view. PLiM is a management tool for doing that. PLiM is a system of programmes and procedures to satisfy safety requirements for safe operation and for power production in a competitive way and for time which is rational from technical and economical point of view. PLiM is not only a technical system, it is also an attitude of the operational company to keep the plant in operation as long as possible from safety and business point of view. The common objectives of PLiM assessment is to help and review the pre-conditions for PLiM and long-term operation approaches. PLiM should not be associated with extension of operational life-time of the NPP only. It is an owner's attitude and rational approach of the operating company to run the business economically and safely. The effectiveness of PLiM Programme can be assessed by three complementary kinds of assessment: self-assessment, peer review and comprehensive programme review by the plant owner/ operator. IAEA will provide the assessment service for peer review of PLiM. Preparation for a PLiM Assessment service will be initiated only after the IAEA has been formally approached by a MS and funding (e.g. an existing Technical cooperation project) has

Metal removal efficiency, operational life and secondary environmental impacts of a stormwater filter developed from iron-oxide-amended bottom ash.

Science.gov (United States)

Ilyas, Aamir; Muthanna, Tone M

2017-12-06

The aim of this paper was to conduct pilot-scale column tests on an alternative treatment filter designed for the treatment of highway stormwater in cold climates. The study evaluated adsorption performance of the filter with regard to the four most commonly found metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in highway stormwater. An alternative method was used to estimate the operational life of the filter from the adsorption test data without a breakthrough under high hydraulic loads. The potential environmental impact of the filter was assessed by comparing desorption test data with four different environmental quality standards. The proposed filter achieved high adsorption (over 90%) of the target metals. The comparisons of desorption and leaching data with the environmental standards indicated that iron-oxide/bottom ash was non-hazardous, reusable and without serious environmental risks. The operational life and filter dimensions were highly dependent on rainfall depth, which indicated that the filter design would have to be adapted to suit the climate. To fully appreciate the performance and environmental aspects, the filter unit should be tested in the field and the testing should explicitly include ecotoxicological and life cycle impacts.

Fatigue life estimation of MD36 and MD523 bogies based on damage accumulation and random fatigue theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Younesian, Davood; Solhmirzaei, Ali; Gachloo, Alireza

2009-01-01

Bogies are one of the multifunctional parts of trains which are extremely subjected to random loads. This type of oscillating and random excitation arises from irregularities of the track including rail surface vertical roughness, rail joints, variance in super-elevation, and also wheel imperfections like wheel flats and unbalancy. Since most of the prementioned sources have random nature, a random based theory should be applied for fatigue life estimation of the bogie frame. Two methods of fatigue life estimation are investigated in this paper. The first approach which is being implemented in time domain is based on the damage accumulation (DA) approach. Using Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm, the rail surface roughness is generated. Finite element (FE) model of the bogie is subjected to the generated random excitation in the first approach and the stress time histories are obtained, and consequently the fatigue life is estimated by using the rain-flow algorithm. In the second approach, the fatigue life is estimated in frequency domain. Power spectral density (PSD) of the stress is obtained by using the FE model of the bogie frame and the fatigue life is estimated using Rayleigh technique in random fatigue theory. A comprehensive parametric study is carried out and effects of different parameters like the train speeds and level of the rail surface vertical roughness on the estimated fatigue life are investigated

Verification of unfold error estimates in the unfold operator code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fehl, D.L.; Biggs, F.

1997-01-01

Spectral unfolding is an inverse mathematical operation that attempts to obtain spectral source information from a set of response functions and data measurements. Several unfold algorithms have appeared over the past 30 years; among them is the unfold operator (UFO) code written at Sandia National Laboratories. In addition to an unfolded spectrum, the UFO code also estimates the unfold uncertainty (error) induced by estimated random uncertainties in the data. In UFO the unfold uncertainty is obtained from the error matrix. This built-in estimate has now been compared to error estimates obtained by running the code in a Monte Carlo fashion with prescribed data distributions (Gaussian deviates). In the test problem studied, data were simulated from an arbitrarily chosen blackbody spectrum (10 keV) and a set of overlapping response functions. The data were assumed to have an imprecision of 5% (standard deviation). One hundred random data sets were generated. The built-in estimate of unfold uncertainty agreed with the Monte Carlo estimate to within the statistical resolution of this relatively small sample size (95% confidence level). A possible 10% bias between the two methods was unresolved. The Monte Carlo technique is also useful in underdetermined problems, for which the error matrix method does not apply. UFO has been applied to the diagnosis of low energy x rays emitted by Z-pinch and ion-beam driven hohlraums. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Quality of life in patients with cleft lip and palate after operation.

Science.gov (United States)

Augsornwan, Darawan; Namedang, Sarakull; Pongpagatip, Sumalee; Surakunprapha, Palakorn

2011-12-01

Cleft lip and cleft palate are the most common craniofacial anomalies. Srinagarind Hospital has 150-200 cases each year. The operating process of care, requires continuity of care involving a multidisciplinary team. When the patients go to hospital for an operation they experience pain, limited activity and also food is very different from normal life. When attending school they suffer speech articulation problems and feel shy and isolated, which has a detrimental affect on their life style and quality of life. The main purpose of the study is to the present study quality of life in patients with cleft lip and palate after operation. The present study is descriptive research using qualitative and quantitative approaches. The studied population were patients age 8-18 years old who were admitted at 3C Ward and Outpatient Department, Srinagarind Hospital. 33 patients were interviewed for the quantitative approach. Guideline for in-depth interview with 15 patients were used for the qualitative approach. Quantitative data were analyzed and presented in frequency, percentage and standard deviation. The qualitative data were analyzed through content analysis. Patients consider their QOL is high level, but in detail they still worry about self concept psychological well-being. From indept interview patients would like to get further treatment to minimize their scar as soon as possible. Patients consider their quality of life as high level, but they would like to get further treatment.

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

2017-06-01

In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

Operation of ULCS - real life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasna Prpić-Oršić

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper the real life operation of ULCS (Ultra Large Container Ships is presented from the point of view of shipmasters. The paper provides interpretation of results of questionnaire filled by masters of large container ships during Tools for Ultra Large Container Ships (TULC EUI FP7 project. This is done in a way that results of questionnaire are further reviewed and commented by experienced master of ULCS. Following phenomena are subject of questionnaire and further discussed in the paper: parametric rolling, slamming, whipping, springing, green water and rogue waves. Special attention is given to the definition of rough sea states as well as to measures that ship masters take to avoid them as well as to the manoeuvring in heavy seas. The role of the wave forecast and weather routing software is also discussed.

Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

2012-01-01

To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

Loss of life estimation – Review, developments and challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonkman S.N. (Bas

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the modelling approaches, input and output types and applications are discussed. Challenges to the field are summarized, including empirical data collection for validation and benchmarking and comparison studies.

Schroedinger operators - geometric estimates in terms of the occupation time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demuth, M.; Kirsch, W.; McGillivray, I.

1995-01-01

The difference of Schroedinger and Dirichlet semigroups is expressed in terms of the Laplace transform of the Brownian motion occupation time. This implies quantitative upper and lower bounds for the operator norms of the corresponding resolvent differences. One spectral theoretical consequence is an estimate for the eigenfunction for a Schroedinger operator in a ball where the potential is given as a cone indicator function. 12 refs

Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

Systematic Review of Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Geothermal Electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eberle, Annika [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heath, Garvin A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Carpenter Petri, Alberta C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Nicholson, Scott R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-29

The primary goal of this work was to assess the magnitude and variability of published life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimates for three types of geothermal electricity generation technologies: enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) binary, hydrothermal (HT) flash, and HT binary. These technologies were chosen to align the results of this report with technologies modeled in National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDs) model. Although we did gather and screen life cycle assessment (LCA) literature on hybrid systems, dry steam, and two geothermal heating technologies, we did not analyze published GHG emission estimates for these technologies. In our systematic literature review of the LCA literature, we screened studies in two stages based on a variety of criteria adapted from NREL's Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Harmonization study (Heath and Mann 2012). Of the more than 180 geothermal studies identified, only 29 successfully passed both screening stages and only 26 of these included estimates of life cycle GHG emissions. We found that the median estimate of life cycle GHG emissions (in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour generated [g CO2eq/kWh]) reported by these studies are 32.0, 47.0, and 11.3 for EGS binary, HT flash, and HT binary, respectively (Figure ES-1). We also found that the total life cycle GHG emissions are dominated by different stages of the life cycle for different technologies. For example, the GHG emissions from HT flash plants are dominated by the operations phase owing to the flash cycle being open loop whereby carbon dioxide entrained in the geothermal fluids is released to the atmosphere. This is in contrast to binary plants (using either EGS or HT resources), whose GHG emissions predominantly originate in the construction phase, owing to its closed-loop process design. Finally, by comparing this review's literature-derived range of HT flash GHG emissions to

A comparison of some methods to estimate the fatigue life of plain dents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martins, Ricardo R.; Noronha Junior, Dauro B. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-12-19

This paper describes a method under development at PETROBRAS R and D Center (CENPES) to estimate the fatigue life of plain dents. This method uses the API Publication 1156 as a base to estimate the fatigue life of dome shaped plain dents and the Pipeline Defect Assessment Manual (PDAM) approach to take into account the uncertainty inherent in the fatigue phenomenon. CENPES method, an empirical and a semi-empirical method available in the literature were employed to estimate the fatigue lives of 10 plain dents specimens of Year 1 of an ongoing test program carried out by BMT Fleet Technology Limited, with the support of the Pipeline Research Council International (PRCI). The results obtained with the different methods are presented and compared. Furthermore some details are given on the numerical methodology proposed by PETROBRAS that have been used to describe the behavior of plain dents. (author)

Evaluating Current Practices in Shelf Life Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Capen, Robert; Christopher, David; Forenzo, Patrick; Huynh-Ba, Kim; LeBlond, David; Liu, Oscar; O'Neill, John; Patterson, Nate; Quinlan, Michelle; Rajagopalan, Radhika; Schwenke, James; Stroup, Walter

2018-02-01

The current International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) methods for determining the supported shelf life of a drug product, described in ICH guidance documents Q1A and Q1E, are evaluated in this paper. To support this evaluation, an industry data set is used which is comprised of 26 individual stability batches of a common drug product where most batches are measured over a 24 month storage period. Using randomly sampled sets of 3 or 6 batches from the industry data set, the current ICH methods are assessed from three perspectives. First, the distributional properties of the supported shelf lives are summarized and compared to the distributional properties of the true shelf lives associated with the industry data set, assuming the industry data set represents a finite population of drug product batches for discussion purposes. Second, the results of the ICH "poolability" tests for model selection are summarized and the separate shelf life distributions from the possible alternative models are compared. Finally, the ICH methods are evaluated in terms of their ability to manage risk. Shelf life estimates that are too long result in an unacceptable percentage of nonconforming batches at expiry while those that are too short put the manufacturer at risk of possibly having to prematurely discard safe and efficacious drug product. Based on the analysis of the industry data set, the ICH-recommended approach did not produce supported shelf lives that effectively managed risk. Alternative approaches are required.

Life Sciences Implications of Lunar Surface Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Steven P.; Norcross, Jason R.; Abercromby, Andrew F.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document preliminary, predicted, life sciences implications of expected operational concepts for lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA). Algorithms developed through simulation and testing in lunar analog environments were used to predict crew metabolic rates and ground reaction forces experienced during lunar EVA. Subsequently, the total metabolic energy consumption, the daily bone load stimulus, total oxygen needed, and other variables were calculated and provided to Human Research Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate stakeholders. To provide context to the modeling, the report includes an overview of some scenarios that have been considered. Concise descriptions of the analog testing and development of the algorithms are also provided. This document may be updated to remain current with evolving lunar or other planetary surface operations, assumptions and concepts, and to provide additional data and analyses collected during the ongoing analog research program.

An improved method for estimating fatigue life under combined stress

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Balda, Miroslav; Svoboda, Jaroslav; Fröhlich, Vladislav

2007-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 1 (2007), s. 1-10 ISSN 1802-680X. [Applied and Computational Mechanics 2007. Nečtiny, 05.11.2007 - 07.11.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA101/05/0199 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : multiaxial fatigue * life-time estimation * nonlinear least squares Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

Plant life time management for safe long term operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burket, Danes

2010-01-01

The topics discussed include LTO (long-term operation) and licensing procedure in general and specifically for the Dukovany NPP, components of an LTO programme, the PLIM (plant life management) concept for Dukovany and Temelin, the LTO implementation project for Dukovany, LTO strategy, LTO risk study, international verification. The Conclusions include the following items: (i) Technical-economic study of Dukovany NPP LTO demonstrates technical feasibility and economic profitability of Dukovany NPP LTO with perspective for up to 60 years of operation. (ii) Safety part of Program for assurance of Dukovany NPP LTO complies with IAEA SALTO recommendations. (iii) Dukovany NPP LTO programme incorporated IAEA SALTO Peer Review Mission recommendations. (iv) LTO Implementation Project for 2009-2015 was approved with major targets to renew operational permission and prepare NPP for operation up to 60 years. (v) Preparation of Temelin NPP LTO programme has been started. (P.A.)

Remaining Useful Life Estimation using Time Trajectory Tracking and Support Vector Machines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galar, D; Kumar, U; Lee, J; Zhao, W

2012-01-01

In this paper, a novel RUL prediction method inspired by feature maps and SVM classifiers is proposed. The historical instances of a system with life-time condition data are used to create a classification by SVM hyper planes. For a test instance of the same system, whose RUL is to be estimated, degradation speed is evaluated by computing the minimal distance defined based on the degradation trajectories, i.e. the approach of the system to the hyper plane that segregates good and bad condition data at different time horizon. Therefore, the final RUL of a specific component can be estimated and global RUL information can then be obtained by aggregating the multiple RUL estimations using a density estimation method.

Power generation options. Rehabilitation for life extension and cogeneration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The first step in evaluating a life extension or upgrading project is to determine the project's economic benefit to the utility. A screening study should be performed for as many candidate plants as are available; two of the most useful screening tools for rapid economic analysis of life extension possibilities are: Present Worth Revenue Requirements (PWRR) Analysis, and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis. (Examples of both methods are discussed). PWRR analysis considers only the expenses associated with operation of a plant or electrical system, and the revenue required to meet those expenses. The total revenue that may be received from the system is not considered in the analysis. The estimated costs for a base case (usually no rehabilitation or life extension) is compared to the operating costs of various alternatives, calculated over an operating life span of several years, and reduced to a Present Worth value, usually for the year in which the study started. If the PWRR of any alternative is estimated to be less than the base case, then an investment in the alternative plant equal to or less than this differential is a preferred economic choice. PWRR analysis is useful if future systems development and future gross revenue to the utility is difficult to estimate; it is also useful when comparing like technologies when differences in fuel supply and fuel cost are minimal

Estimate of the difference between the Kac operator and the Schroedinger semigroup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichinose, T.; Satoshi, S.

1997-01-01

An operator norm estimate of the difference between the Kac operator and the Schroedinger semigroup is proved and used to give a variant of the Trotter product formula for Schroedinger operators in the L p operator norm. This extends Helffer's result in the L 2 operator norm to the case in the L p operator norm for more general scalar potentials and with vector potentials. The method of the proof is probabilistic based on the Feynman-Kac a nd Feynman-Kac-Ito formula. (orig.)

The effects of thoracic surgery operations on quality of life: a multicenter study.

Science.gov (United States)

Öz, Gürhan; Solak, Okan; Metin, Muzaffer; Esme, Hıdır; Sayar, Adnan

2015-10-01

Some treatment modalities may cause losses in patients' life comfort because of the treatment process. Our aim is to determine the effects of thoracic surgery operations on patients' quality of life. This is a multicenter and prospective study. A hundred patients, who had undergone posterolateral thoracotomy (PLT) and/or lateral thoracotomy (LT), were included in the study. A quality of life questionnaire (SF-36) was used to determine the changes in life comfort. SF-36 was performed before the operation, on the first month, third month, sixth month and twelfth month after the operation. Seventy-two percent (n = 72) of the patients were male. PLT was performed in 66% (n = 66) of the patients, and LT was performed in 34% (n = 34) of the patients. The types of resections in patients were pneumonectomy in four patients, lobectomy in 59 patients and wedge resection in 11 patients. No resection was performed in 26 patients. Thoracotomy caused deteriorations in physical function (PF), physical role (RP), bodily pain (BP), health, vitality and social function scores. The deteriorations observed in the third month improved in the sixth and twelfth months. The PF, RP, BP and MH scores of the patients with lung resection were much more worsened compared with the patients who did not undergo lung resection. Thoracic surgery operations caused substantial dissatisfaction in life comfort especially in the third month postoperatively. The worsening in physical function, physical role, pain and mental health is much more in patients with resection compared with the patients who did not undergo resection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost estimates for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm: a budgetary analysis

OpenAIRE

Johnson, J. Andrew.

1991-01-01

Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (DS/DS) presented unique challenges for estimating the cost of that conflict. This analysis reviews the cost estimates and methodologies developed for that purpose by DoD, CBO and GAO. It considers the budget climate and the role of foreign cash and in-kind contributions. Finally, it reviews the budgeting innovations used to provide and monitor DS/DS defense spending. At the outset of the crisis, costs were estimated to determine the defense funding requir...

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in

Intelligent Prognostic Framework for Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Photovoltaic Module

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nabil Laayouj

2016-12-01

Full Text Available All industrial systems and machines are subjected to degradation processes, which can be related to the operating conditions. This degradation can cause unwanted stops at any time and major maintenance work sometimes. The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL is an important challenge in condition-based maintenance. Prognostic activity allows estimating the RUL before failure occurs and triggering actions to mitigate faults in time when needed. In this study, a new smart prognostic method for photovoltaic module health degradation was developed based on two approaches to achieve more accurate predictions: online diagnosis and data-driven prognosis. This framework of forecasting integrates the strengths of real-time monitoring in the first approach and relevant vector machine in the second. The results show that the proposed method is plausible due to its good prediction of RUL and can be effectively applied to many systems for monitoring and prognostics.

Procedure for estimating nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, M.L.; Fuller, L.C.

1979-01-01

Revised guidelines are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants, specifically light-water-reactor plants and coal-fired plants. Previous guidelines were published in October 1975 in ERDA 76-37, a Procedure for Estimating Nonfuel Operating and Maintenance Costs for Large Steam-Electric Power Plants. Estimates for coal-fired plants include the option of limestone slurry scrubbing for flue gas desulfurization. A computer program, OMCOST, is also presented which covers all plant options

Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

2013-12-02

To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectancy estimation including agreement analysis of life expectancy estimates and comparison of estimate SEs. Chiang II and Silcocks methods produced almost identical life expectancy estimates across a large range of population sizes but calculation failures and excessively large SEs limited their use in small populations. A population of 25 000 or greater was required to estimate life expectancy with SE of 1 year or less using adjusted Chiang II (a composite of Chiang II and Silcocks methods). Data aggregation offered some remedy for extending the use of adjusted Chiang II in small populations but reduced estimate currency. A recently developed Bayesian random effects model utilising the correlation in mortality rates between genders, age groups and geographical areas markedly improved the precision of life expectancy estimates in small populations. We propose a hybrid approach for the calculation of life expectancy using the Bayesian random effects model in populations of 25 000 or lower permitting the precise derivation of life expectancy in small populations. In populations above 25 000, we propose the use of adjusted Chiang II to guard against violations of spatial correlation, to benefit from a widely accepted method that is simpler to communicate to local health authorities and where its slight inferior performance compared with the Bayesian approach is of minor practical significance.

Global Carleman estimates for degenerate parabolic operators with applications

CERN Document Server

Cannarsa, P; Vancostenoble, J

2016-01-01

Degenerate parabolic operators have received increasing attention in recent years because they are associated with both important theoretical analysis, such as stochastic diffusion processes, and interesting applications to engineering, physics, biology, and economics. This manuscript has been conceived to introduce the reader to global Carleman estimates for a class of parabolic operators which may degenerate at the boundary of the space domain, in the normal direction to the boundary. Such a kind of degeneracy is relevant to study the invariance of a domain with respect to a given stochastic diffusion flow, and appears naturally in climatology models.

Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

2015-08-01

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

NUMATH: a nuclear material holdup estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krichinsky, A.M.

1982-01-01

NUMATH provides inventory estimation by utilizing previous inventory measurements, operating data, and, where available, on-line process measurements. For the present time, NUMATH's purpose is to provide a reasonable, near-real-time estimate of material inventory until accurate inventory determination can be obtained from chemical analysis. Ultimately, it is intended that NUMATH will further utilize on-line analyzers and more advanced calculational techniques to provide more accurate inventory determinations and estimates

Estimation for a Weibull accelerated life testing model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaser, R.E.

1984-01-01

It is sometimes reasonable to assume that the lifetime distribution of an item belongs to a certain parametric family, and that actual parameter values depend upon the testing environment of the item. In the two-parameter Weibull family setting, suppose both the shape and scale parameters are expressible as functions of the testing environment. For various models of functional dependency on environment, maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate characteristics of interest at specified environmental levels. The methodology presented handles exact, censored, and grouped data. A detailed accelerated life testing analysis of stress-rupture data for Kevlar/epoxy composites is given. 10 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

[Estimation of the quality of life 8-year-old child with bilateral anophthalmia].

Science.gov (United States)

Sredzińska-Kita, Dorota; Mrugacz, Małgorzata; Bakunowicz-Łazarczyk, Alina

2009-01-01

The main aim of our work was to estimate the physical and psychomotor development and the arrangement to the daily life for a 8-year-old girl with inborn bilateral anophthalmia. The basic ophthalmic, pediatric and neurological examinations were performed with additional genetic and radiological examinations. The ophthalmic and MRI examination find out the absence of the eyeballs, optic nerves, optic chiasm, optic tracts and optic radiation. Anophthalmia limits in a big grade an independent life of the child. However, currently the girl's development indicates for good intellectual abilities what is promising for future independent life and professional work.

Estimation of shelf life of wikau maombo brownies cake using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) method with Arrhenius model

Science.gov (United States)

Wahyuni, S.; Holilah; Asranudin; Noviyanti

2018-02-01

The shelf life of brownies cake made from wikau maombo flour was predicted by ASLT method through the Arrhenius model. The aim of this study was to estimate the shelf life of brownies cake made from wikau maombo flour. The storage temperature of brownies cake was carried out at 20°C, 30°C and 45°C. The results showed that TBA (Thio Barbaturic Acid) number of brownies cake decreased as the storage temperature increase. Brownies stored at 20°C and 30°C were overgrown with mold on the storage time of six days. Brownies product (WT0 and WT1) had shelf life at 40°C approximately six and fourteen days, respectively. Brownies made from wikau maombo and wheat flour (WT1) was the best product with had the longest of shelf life about fourteen days.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirko Guerrieri

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

2016-07-01

The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

2016-01-01

The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

Operational production of Geodetic Excitation Functions from EOP estimated values at ASI-CGS

Science.gov (United States)

Sciarretta, C.; Luceri, V.; Bianco, G.

2009-04-01

ASI-CGS is routinely providing geodetic excitation functions from its own estimated EOP values (at present SLR and VLBI; the current use of GPS EOP's is also planned as soon as this product will be fully operational) on the ASI geodetic web site (http://geodaf.mt.asi.it). This product has been generated and monitored (for ASI internal use only) in a long pre-operational phase (more than two years), including validation and testing. The daily geodetic excitation functions are now weekly updated along with the operational ASI SLR and VLBI EOP solutions and compared, whenever possible, with the atmospheric excitation functions available at the IERS SBAAM, under the IB and not-IB assumption, including the "wind" term. The work will present the available estimated geodetic function time series and its comparison with the relevant atmospheric excitation functions, deriving quantitative indicators on the quality of the estimates. The similarities as well as the discrepancies among the atmospheric and geodetic series will be analysed and commented, evaluating in particular the degree of correlation among the two estimated time series and the likelihood of a linear dependence hypothesis.

Greenhouse gases in the life cycle of fossil fuels: critical aspects in upstream emissions estimate and their repercussions on the overall life-cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zerlia, Tiziana

2004-01-01

Combustion accounts for the main contribution to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in electricity generation via fossil fuels. To date, minor attention has been paid to pre combustion emissions associated with fossil fuel upstream segment (production, processing and transportation). This study seeks to provide insight into GHG emissions in the pre combustion step of natural gas and coal. Owing to the size/complexity of the upstream processes and to a lack of detailed site-specific data, this study just outlines some of the key aspects involved. The attention will be focused on the elements that may have a significant impact on fossil fuel life-cycle and no on the evaluation of GHG: the sources, the extent of the pre combustion GHG emissions and the accuracy of their estimate. Some key results are summarized in the following. The first one is that pre combustion GHG, owing of the huge Italy reliance on fossil fuels imports, are mainly emitted abroad. In addition, they are released to the atmosphere mainly as fugitive emissions (methane and carbon dioxide being the predominant gases). Moreover, although pre combustion emissions give a modest contribution to GHG of the whole energy sector, they may account for a consistent part of the aver all fuel life-cycle in power generation even though combustion technologies efficiency plays a key role in emission reduction. Some examples are reported, showing the potential impact of pre combustion emissions on coal and natural gas life-cycle in Italy's electricity generation. The second one is that pre combustion emissions are very site specific as they depend on several factors which may vary greatly between countries and even between individual companies. The sources and the extent of upstream emissions are in fact a function of a least three factor types: (a) technical parameters (design and operating practices, process operating conditions, efficiency of potential emission control/reduction equipment, age and conditions of

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

1991-03-01

Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner that allows evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study, conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key non-manufacturing sectors. This volume presents tabular and graphical results of the historical analysis and projections for each SIC industry. (JF)

Numerical Estimation of Fatigue Life of Wind Turbines due to Shadow Effect

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Pedersen, Ronnie; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

2009-01-01

The influence of tower design on damage accumulation in up-wind turbine blades during tower passage is discussed. The fatigue life of a blade is estimated for a tripod tower configuration and a standard mono-tower. The blade stresses are determined from a dynamic mechanical model with a delay...

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

Science.gov (United States)

Hoenig, John M; Then, Amy Y.-H.; Babcock, Elizabeth A.; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.; Hesp, Sybrand A.

2016-01-01

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

Condition monitoring of a motor-operated valve using estimated motor torque

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chai, Jangbom; Kang, Shinchul; Park, Sungkeun; Hong, Sungyull; Lim, Chanwoo

2004-01-01

This paper is concerned with the development of data analysis methods to be used in on-line monitoring and diagnosis of Motor-Operated Valves (MOVs) effectively and accurately. The technique to be utilized includes the electrical measurements and signal processing to estimate electric torque of induction motors, which are attached to most of MOV systems. The estimated torque of an induction motor is compared with the directly measured torque using a torque cell in various loading conditions including the degraded voltage conditions to validate the estimating scheme. The accuracy of the estimating scheme is presented. The advantages of the estimated torque signatures are reviewed over the currently used ones such as the current signature and the power signature in several respects: accuracy, sensitivity, resolution and so on. Additionally, the estimated torque methods are suggested as a good way to monitor the conditions of MOVs with higher accuracy. (author)

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cash flows: The Gap Between Reported and Estimated Operating Cash Flow Elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Hughes

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The FASB and the IASB recently released a joint Discussion Paper “Preliminary Views on FinancialStatement Presentation” (International Accounting Standards Board 2008, which contains a major proposalrequiring companies to report operating cash flows using the direct method and it also requires that theindirect method of calculating operating cash flows be disclosed in the notes. This is a departure from currentrules and has generated considerable debate among respondents’ comment letters on the Discussion Paper.This paper adds to this debate by providing some evidence as to the size of the gap users confront when usingthe indirect method to estimate the major operating cash flow elements, such as cash collected fromcustomers and cash paid to suppliers. Using a sample of Australian companies which reported operating cashflows using the direct method, and presented the indirect method in the notes, we find significant differencesbetween reported and estimated figures for both cash collected from customers and cash paid to suppliers.These findings support the discussion paper’s proposal that companies be required to report cash flows usingboth the direct and indirect methods.

Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor); Saxena, Abhinav (Inventor); Celaya, Jose R. (Inventor)

2014-01-01

The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

Estimating truck operating costs for domestic trips – case studies from Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sdoukopoulos Eleftherios

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The transport sector represents a vital component of national economies and has significant impacts on productivity and social welfare. In 2012, the transport sector in Europe was estimated to account for 3.7% of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP and 5.1% for employment. Road transport proves to be the predominant mode for moving goods within Europe holding a share of approximately 45.8% in 2012 (in ton-kms. In Greece, the share of road freight transport is significantly higher (98% indicating the importance of this sector for the Greek economy. To this end and considering the existing needs of road freight transport operators in Greece, the objective of this research is to establish an analytical and documented basis for estimating the operating cost of a truck on specific urban or national freight transport routes. To achieve this goal, an extended literature review has been conducted resulting in the identification of the main components comprising the total truck operating cost, which were then updated and validated through a series of personal interviews with selected road freight transport professionals. An excel-based application tool was also developed in order to facilitate operating cost estimates for different cases, through selection of the proper values of the relevant parameters. The resulting tool was used to analyse four test cases, which demonstrate the tool’s usability and applicability. Results from this analysis have been also validated by industry experts and they reflect real-world transport scenarios.

Estimation Algorithm of Machine Operational Intention by Bayes Filtering with Self-Organizing Map

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Suzuki

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We present an intention estimator algorithm that can deal with dynamic change of the environment in a man-machine system and will be able to be utilized for an autarkical human-assisting system. In the algorithm, state transition relation of intentions is formed using a self-organizing map (SOM from the measured data of the operation and environmental variables with the reference intention sequence. The operational intention modes are identified by stochastic computation using a Bayesian particle filter with the trained SOM. This method enables to omit the troublesome process to specify types of information which should be used to build the estimator. Applying the proposed method to the remote operation task, the estimator's behavior was analyzed, the pros and cons of the method were investigated, and ways for the improvement were discussed. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimator can identify the intention modes at 44–94 percent concordance ratios against normal intention modes whose periods can be found by about 70 percent of members of human analysts. On the other hand, it was found that human analysts' discrimination which was used as canonical data for validation differed depending on difference of intention modes. Specifically, an investigation of intentions pattern discriminated by eight analysts showed that the estimator could not identify the same modes that human analysts could not discriminate. And, in the analysis of the multiple different intentions, it was found that the estimator could identify the same type of intention modes to human-discriminated ones as well as 62–73 percent when the first and second dominant intention modes were considered.

Operational data collection and analysis for nuclear plant life extension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Berg, R.M.; Bailey, T.L.

1989-01-01

This paper describes initial work undertaken by the US Department of Energy, through Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to define the operational data necessary for support of nuclear plant life extension (PLEX) programs. This work is being performed in coordination with the Working Group on Plant Life Extension of the US Nuclear Management and Resources Council. The intent of the effort is to use results gained initially from pilot PLEX programs a US BWR and a US PWR to build towards the use of ''PLEX indicators'' by which a plant's readiness for successful life extension can be measured. Another objective of the study was to examine chemistry data in detail to determine how well US plants are collecting, preserving, and trending the chemistry data that is important to PLEX. The methods used to disseminate this data to outside agencies and other utilities were studied. Finally, an analysis was made to determine additional chemistry data needed to support PLEX

Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

Estimation of fatigue life using electromechanical impedance technique

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Yee Yan; Soh, Chee Kiong

2010-04-01

Fatigue induced damage is often progressive and gradual in nature. Structures subjected to large number of fatigue load cycles will encounter the process of progressive crack initiation, propagation and finally fracture. Monitoring of structural health, especially for the critical components, is therefore essential for early detection of potential harmful crack. Recent advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducer adopting the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique and wave propagation technique are well proven to be effective in incipient damage detection and characterization. Exceptional advantages such as autonomous, real-time and online, remote monitoring may provide a cost-effective alternative to the conventional structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques. In this study, the main focus is to investigate the feasibility of characterizing a propagating fatigue crack in a structure using the EMI technique as well as estimating its remaining fatigue life using the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) approach. Uniaxial cyclic tensile load is applied on a lab-sized aluminum beam up to failure. Progressive shift in admittance signatures measured by the piezo-impedance transducer (PZT patch) corresponding to increase of loading cycles reflects effectiveness of the EMI technique in tracing the process of fatigue damage progression. With the use of LEFM, prediction of the remaining life of the structure at different cycles of loading is possible.

Emergency end of life operations for CNES remote sensing satellites—Management and operational process

Science.gov (United States)

Bertrand, Régis; Alby, Fernand; Costes, Thierry; Dejoie, Joël; Delmas, Dominique-Roland; Delobette, Damien; Gibek, Isabelle; Gleyzes, Alain; Masson, Françoise; Meyer, Jean-Renaud; Moreau, Agathe; Perret, Lionel; Riclet, François; Ruiz, Hélène; Schiavon, Françoise; Spizzi, Pierre; Viallefont, Pierre; Villaret, Colette

2012-10-01

The French Space Agency (CNES) is currently operating thirteen satellites among which five remote sensing satellites. This fleet is composed of two civilian (SPOT) and three military (HELIOS) satellites and it has been recently completed by the first PLEIADES satellite which is devoted to both civil and military purposes. The CNES operation board decided to appoint a Working Group (WG) in order to anticipate and tackle issues related to the emergency End Of Life (EOL) operations due to unexpected on-board events affecting the satellite. This is of particular interest in the context of the French Law on Space Operations (LSO), entered in force on Dec. 2010, which states that any satellite operator must demonstrate its capability to control the space vehicle whatever the mission phase from the launch up to the EOL. Indeed, after several years in orbit the satellites may be affected by on-board anomalies which could damage the implementation of EOL operations, i.e. orbital manoeuvres or platform disposal. Even if automatic recovery actions ensure autonomous reconfigurations on redundant equipment, i.e. setting for instance the satellite into a safe mode, it is crucial to anticipate the consequences of failures of every equipment and functions necessary for the EOL operations. For this purpose, the WG has focused on each potential anomaly by analysing: its emergency level, as well as the EOL operations potentially inhibited by the failure and the needs of on-board software workarounds… The main contribution of the WG consisted in identifying a particular satellite configuration called "minimal Withdrawal From Service (WFS) configuration". This configuration corresponds to an operational status which involves a redundancy necessary for the EOL operations. Therefore as soon as a satellite reaches this state, a dedicated steering committee is activated and decides of the future of the satellite with respect to three options: a/. the satellite is considered safe and can

Operational safety and reactor life improvements of Kyoto University Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Utsuro, M.; Fujita, Y.; Nishihara, H.

1990-01-01

Recent important experience in improving the operational safety and life of a reactor are described. The Kyoto University Reactor (KUR) is a 25-year-old 5 MW light water reactor provided with two thermal columns of graphite and heavy water as well as other kinds of experimental facilities. In the graphite thermal column, noticeable amounts of neutron irradiation effects had accumulated in the graphite blocks near the core. Before the possible release of the stored energy, all the graphite blocks in the column were successfully replaced with new blocks using the opportunity provided by the installation of a liquid deuterium cold neutron source in the column. At the same time, special seal mechanisms were provided for essential improvements to the problem of radioactive argon production in the column. In the heavy-water thermal column we have accomplished the successful repair of a slow leak of heavy water through a thin instrumentation tube failure. The repair work included the removal and reconstructions of the lead and graphite shielding layers and welding of the instrumentation tube under radiation fields. Several mechanical components in the reactor cooling system were also exchanged for new components with improved designs and materials. On-line data logging of almost all instrumentation signals is continuously performed with a high speed data analysis system to diagnose operational conditions of the reactor. Furthermore, through detailed investigations on critical components, operational safety during further extended reactor life will be supported by well scheduled maintenance programs

Gas spark switches with increased operating life for Marx generator of lightning test complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bykov, Yu. A.; Krastelev, E. G., E-mail: ekrastelev@yandex.ru [Russian Academy of Sciences, Joint Institute for High Temperature (Russian Federation)

2016-12-15

A new design of gas spark switches with an increased operating life and stable dynamic characteristics for the Marx generator of the lightning test complex has been developed. The switches are characterized by the following parameters in the mode of operation: voltage up to 80 kV, discharge current up to 50 kA, flowing charge up to 3.5 C/pulse. An increased operating life is achieved by using torus-shaped electrodes with increased working surface area and a trigger electrode in the form of a thick disk with a hole located between them. Low breakdown delay time and high stability of breakdown voltage under dynamic conditions are provided by gas preionization in the spark gap using UV radiation of an additional corona discharge in the axial region.

Fretting fatigue life estimation using fatigue damage gradient correction factor in various contact configurations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Dong Hyeon; Cho, Sung-San [Hongik University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-03-15

A fretting fatigue life estimation method that takes into account the stress gradient effect was developed by the authors [Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 28 (2014) 2153-2159]. In the developed method, fatigue damage value at the cracking location is corrected with fatigue damage gradient and the corrected value is compared directly with the plain fatigue data for life estimation. In other words, the correction factor is the ratio of plain fatigue damage to fretting fatigue damage at the same life and a function of fatigue damage gradient. Since reliability of the method was verified only for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration in the previous study, the present study extends application of the method to flat-on-flat contact configurations by developing the correction factor for both the contact configuration. Fretting fatigue experiments were conducted to obtain fatigue life data for various fretting pads. Finite element analyses were conducted to evaluate the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) fatigue damage parameter in the cracking region. It is revealed that the SWT parameter in fat-on-flat contact configuration decreases exponentially away from the surface as in cylinder-on-flat contact configuration, and thus the SWT gradient at the surface can be evaluated reliably. Moreover, it is found that decrease in the SWT parameter around the cracking location can be expressed by piecewise exponential curves. If the gradient of SWT at the surface is used as a representative value of SWT gradient, it is impossible to establish functional relationship between the SWT gradient and the correction factor for both the contact configurations although it was possible for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration. However, if weighted average of the SWT gradient values obtained from each exponential curve in the piecewise exponential curve is used as a representative value, the correction factor for both the contact configurations becomes a function of the SWT gradient

An Analytical Method for Jack-Up Riser’s Fatigue Life Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fengde Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In order to determine whether a special sea area and its sea state are available for the jack-up riser with surface blowout preventers, an analytical method is presented to estimate the jack-up riser’s wave loading fatigue life in this study. In addition, an approximate formula is derived to compute the random wave force spectrum of the small-scale structures. The results show that the response of jack-up riser is a narrow band random vibration. The infinite water depth dispersion relation between wavenumber and wave frequency can be used to calculate the wave force spectrum of small-scale structures. The riser’s response mainly consists of the additional displacement response. The fatigue life obtained by the formula proposed by Steinberg is less than that of the Bendat method.

Dynamic state estimation and prediction for real-time control and operation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, P.H.; Venayagamoorthy, G.K.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

2013-01-01

Real-time control and operation are crucial to deal with increasing complexity of modern power systems. To effectively enable those functions, it is required a Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) function to provide accurate network state variables at the right moment and predict their trends ahead. This

Assessment of quality of life in patients with non-operated pancreatic cancer after videothoracoscopic splanchnicectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacek Śmigielski

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Pancreatic tumours are a crucial medical issue. The majority of patients report sick in the late stage ofcarcinoma clinical advancement, which considerably limits the possibility of surgical treatment. Pancreatic cancerpatients with no other alternative but palliative treatment constitute a large group.Aim: To assess pain intensity levels and quality of life of pancreatic cancer patients after videothoracoscopic splanchnicectomy.Material and methods: Between 2001 January and 2010 November in the Department of Thorax, General Surgery andOncology of the Medical University of Lodz 262 patients with pancreatic tumours were hospitalized. In 121 casesgrade 3 and grade 4 tumours were observed. Hundred and twenty-one videothoracoscopic procedures of sympathetictrunk and ganglion excision were performed in 89 patients.Results: Before the procedure the pain intensity level according to VAS was 5.66 (3.9-7.2; SD 1.24 in the trial groupand 5.46 (4.1-7.1; SD 1.15 in the control group. The quality of life average assessment in both groups did not differ statistically(p = 1.07 and was 46.3 (32-66; SD 0.92 in patients before the operation and in the control group 50.3(41-63; SD 0.75. On the 7th postoperative day the pain intensity on average was 2.33 (1.2-3.9; SD 0.78 and 4.57(3.6-5.5; SD 0.69 respectively. One week after the procedure the quality of patients’ life was estimated at 64.1(39-83; SD 1.38 and in the control group at 52.2 (42-65; SD 0.71; the differences are significant (p < 0.05. Thirty daysafter the procedure 12 patients did not t ake any painkillers (13.5%, and in the others a considerable decrease of thetaken drugs was observed. On average, the pain intensity was estimated at 1.78 (0.6-3.6; SD 0.68. The quality of life,on the other hand, improved considerably in relation to the state prior to the procedure, but increased insignificantlyin relation to the state on the 7th postoperative day to 70.9 (52-88; SD 1.14.Conclusions

Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

2015-01-01

Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

On $L^p$ Estimates for the Time-Dependent Schrodinger Operator on $L^2$

CERN Document Server

Mortad, M H

2006-01-01

Let L denote the time-dependent Schrodinger operator in n space variables. We consider a variety of Lebesgue norms for functions u on R^{n+1}, and prove or disprove estimates for such norms of u in terms of the L^2-norms of u and Lu. The results have implications for self-adjo intness of operators of the form L+V where V is a multiplication operator. The proofs are based mainly on the Strichartz-type inequalities.

Operational considerations for the Space Station Life Science Glovebox

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmussen, Daryl N.; Bosley, John J.; Vogelsong, Kristofer; Schnepp, Tery A.; Phillips, Robert W.

1988-01-01

The U.S. Laboratory (USL) module on Space Station will house a biological research facility for multidisciplinary research using living plant and animal specimens. Environmentally closed chambers isolate the specimen habitats, but specimens must be removed from these chambers during research procedures as well as while the chambers are being cleaned. An enclosed, sealed Life Science Glovebox (LSG) is the only locale in the USL where specimens can be accessed by crew members. This paper discusses the key science, engineering and operational considerations and constraints involving the LSG, such as bioisolation, accessibility, and functional versatility.

Improved Battery Parameter Estimation Method Considering Operating Scenarios for HEV/EV Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jufeng Yang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted dataset is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.

A kernel principal component analysis–based degradation model and remaining useful life estimation for the turbofan engine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delong Feng

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Remaining useful life estimation of the prognostics and health management technique is a complicated and difficult research question for maintenance. In this article, we consider the problem of prognostics modeling and estimation of the turbofan engine under complicated circumstances and propose a kernel principal component analysis–based degradation model and remaining useful life estimation method for such aircraft engine. We first analyze the output data created by the turbofan engine thermodynamic simulation that is based on the kernel principal component analysis method and then distinguish the qualitative and quantitative relationships between the key factors. Next, we build a degradation model for the engine fault based on the following assumptions: the engine has only had constant failure (i.e. no sudden failure is included, and the engine has a Wiener process, which is a covariate stand for the engine system drift. To predict the remaining useful life of the turbofan engine, we built a health index based on the degradation model and used the method of maximum likelihood and the data from the thermodynamic simulation model to estimate the parameters of this degradation model. Through the data analysis, we obtained a trend model of the regression curve line that fits with the actual statistical data. Based on the predicted health index model and the data trend model, we estimate the remaining useful life of the aircraft engine as the index reaches zero. At last, a case study involving engine simulation data demonstrates the precision and performance advantages of this prediction method that we propose. At last, a case study involving engine simulation data demonstrates the precision and performance advantages of this proposed method, the precision of the method can reach to 98.9% and the average precision is 95.8%.

Estimation of crop water requirements using remote sensing for operational water resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Tzabiras, John; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-06-01

An integrated modeling system, developed in the framework of "Hydromentor" research project, is applied to evaluate crop water requirements for operational water resources management at Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The framework includes coupled components for operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and estimation of agricultural water demands at several spatial scales using remote sensing. The study area was sub-divided into irrigation zones based on land use maps derived from Landsat 5 TM images for the year 2007. Satellite-based energy balance for mapping evapotranspiration with internalized calibration (METRIC) was used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) and crop coefficient (ETrF) values from Landsat TM imagery. Agricultural water needs were estimated using the FAO method for each zone and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development (present situation without operation of the reservoir and future situation with the operation of the reservoir) are coupled with three water demand strategies. In total, eight (8) water management strategies are evaluated and compared. The results show that, under the existing operational water resources management strategies, the crop water requirements are quite large. However, the operation of the proposed hydro-technical projects in Lake Karla watershed coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area.

A shared-world conceptual model for integrating space station life sciences telescience operations

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Vicki; Bosley, John

1988-01-01

Mental models of the Space Station and its ancillary facilities will be employed by users of the Space Station as they draw upon past experiences, perform tasks, and collectively plan for future activities. The operational environment of the Space Station will incorporate telescience, a new set of operational modes. To investigate properties of the operational environment, distributed users, and the mental models they employ to manipulate resources while conducting telescience, an integrating shared-world conceptual model of Space Station telescience is proposed. The model comprises distributed users and resources (active elements); agents who mediate interactions among these elements on the basis of intelligent processing of shared information; and telescience protocols which structure the interactions of agents as they engage in cooperative, responsive interactions on behalf of users and resources distributed in space and time. Examples from the life sciences are used to instantiate and refine the model's principles. Implications for transaction management and autonomy are discussed. Experiments employing the model are described which the authors intend to conduct using the Space Station Life Sciences Telescience Testbed currently under development at Ames Research Center.

Revised estimates for ozone reduction by shuttle operation

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, A. E.

1978-01-01

Previous calculations by five different modeling groups of the effect of space shuttle operations on the ozone layer yielded an estimate of 0.2 percent ozone reduction for the Northern Hemisphere at 60 launches per year. Since these calculations were made, the accepted rate constant for the reaction between hydroperoxyl and nitric oxide to yield hydroxyl and nitrogen dioxide, HO2 + NO yields OH + NO2, was revised upward by more than an order of magnitude, with a resultant increase in the predicted ozone reduction for chlorofluoromethanes by a factor of approximately 2. New calculations of the shuttle effect were made with use of the new rate constant data, again by five different modeling groups. The new value of the shuttle effect on the ozone layer was found to be 0.25 percent. The increase resulting from the revised rate constant is considerably less for space shuttle operations than for chlorofluoromethane production, because the new rate constant also increases the calculated rate of downward transport of shuttle exhaust products out of the stratosphere.

Life cycle management of french operating nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valibus, L.; Loriette, Ph.

1998-01-01

The PWR units of the EDF generation capacity in operation are young. They represent a technical and financial asset with a strategic significance both for the company and for France. According to regulations, even if the safety reports take into account a 40-year lifetime for the NSSS, the French regulations do not specify a time limit for the operation of the facilities according to the plant authorization decree. The Safety Authorities may, at any time require another safety re-examination. In fact, it was decided to carry out unit safety periodic reviews according to types of series. A program was set up in order to achieve regular assessments on the aging of the facilities. This program, combining all the skills within EDF and the manufacturers, is a guarantee for the coherence and the exhaustivity of the consideration as it relies on a great number of evaluation areas. It seems to day that under operational conditions, an appropriate surveillance and maintenance of components the 900 and 1300 MWe units should be able to fulfill the expected duty for a 40-year design life and very likely even longer. (author)

Population-Based Estimates of Decreases in Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Associated with Unhealthy Body Mass Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Haomiao; Zack, Matthew M; Thompson, William W

2016-01-01

Being classified as outside the normal range for body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased risk for chronic health conditions, poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and premature death. To assess the impact of BMI on HRQOL and mortality, we compared quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by BMI levels. We obtained HRQOL data from the 1993-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and life table estimates from the National Center for Health Statistics national mortality files to estimate QALE among U.S. adults by BMI categories: underweight (BMI overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)), obese (BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), and severely obese (BMI ≥35.0 kg/m(2)). In 2010 in the United States, the highest estimated QALE for adults at 18 years of age was 54.1 years for individuals classified as normal weight. The two lowest QALE estimates were for those classified as either underweight (48.9 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). For individuals who were overweight or obese, the QALE estimates fell between those classified as either normal weight (54.1 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). The difference in QALE between adults classified as normal weight and those classified as either overweight or obese was significantly higher among women than among men, irrespective of race/ethnicity. Using population-based data, we found significant differences in QALE loss by BMI category. These findings are valuable for setting national and state targets to reduce health risks associated with severe obesity, and could be used for cost-effectiveness evaluations of weight-reduction interventions.

Accuracy of advanced cancer patients' life expectancy estimates: The role of race and source of life expectancy information.

Science.gov (United States)

Trevino, Kelly M; Zhang, Baohui; Shen, Megan J; Prigerson, Holly G

2016-06-15

The objective of this study was to examine the source of advanced cancer patients' information about their prognosis and determine whether this source of information could explain racial disparities in the accuracy of patients' life expectancy estimates (LEEs). Coping With Cancer was a prospective, longitudinal, multisite study of terminally ill cancer patients followed until death. In structured interviews, patients reported their LEEs and the sources of these estimates (ie, medical providers, personal beliefs, religious beliefs, and other). The accuracy of LEEs was calculated through a comparison of patients' self-reported LEEs with their actual survival. The sample for this analysis included 229 patients: 31 black patients and 198 white patients. Only 39.30% of the patients estimated their life expectancy within 12 months of their actual survival. Black patients were more likely to have an inaccurate LEE than white patients. A minority of the sample (18.3%) reported that a medical provider was the source of their LEEs; none of the black patients (0%) based their LEEs on a medical provider. Black race remained a significant predictor of an inaccurate LEE, even after the analysis had been controlled for sociodemographic characteristics and the source of LEEs. The majority of advanced cancer patients have an inaccurate understanding of their life expectancy. Black patients with advanced cancer are more likely to have an inaccurate LEE than white patients. Medical providers are not the source of information for LEEs for most advanced cancer patients and especially for black patients. The source of LEEs does not explain racial differences in LEE accuracy. Additional research into the mechanisms underlying racial differences in prognostic understanding is needed. Cancer 2016;122:1905-12. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons

Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam

2016-09-01

Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

2016-12-01

This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

324 Building life cycle dose estimates for planned work

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landsman, S.D.; Peterson, C.A.; Thornhill, R.E.

1995-09-01

This report describes a tool for use by organizational management teams to plan, manage, and oversee personnel exposures within their organizations. The report encompasses personnel radiation exposures received from activities associated with the B-Cell Cleanout Project, Surveillance and Maintenance Project, the Mk-42 Project, and other minor activities. It is designed to provide verifiable Radiological Performance Reports. The primary area workers receive radiation exposure is the Radiochemical Engineering Complex airlock. Entry to the airlock is necessary for maintenance of cranes and other equipment, and to set up the rail system used to move large pieces of equipment and shipping casks into and out of the airlock. Transfers of equipment and materials from the hot cells in the complex to the airlock are required to allow dose profiles of waste containers, shuffling of waste containers to allow grouting activities to go on, and to allow maintenance of in-cell cranes. Both DOE and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are currently investing in state-of-the-art decontamination equipment. Challenging goals for exposure reduction were established for several broad areas of activity. Exposure estimates and goals developed from these scheduled activities will be compared against actual exposures for scheduled and unscheduled activities that contributed to exposures received by personnel throughout the year. Included in this report are life cycle exposure estimates by calendar year for the B-Cell Cleanout project, a three-year estimate of exposures associated with Surveillance and Maintenance, and known activities for Calendar Year (CY) 1995 associated with several smaller projects. These reports are intended to provide a foundation for future dose estimates, by year, requiring updating as exposure conditions change or new avenues of approach to performing work are developed.

324 Building life cycle dose estimates for planned work

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsman, S.D.; Peterson, C.A.; Thornhill, R.E.

1995-09-01

This report describes a tool for use by organizational management teams to plan, manage, and oversee personnel exposures within their organizations. The report encompasses personnel radiation exposures received from activities associated with the B-Cell Cleanout Project, Surveillance and Maintenance Project, the Mk-42 Project, and other minor activities. It is designed to provide verifiable Radiological Performance Reports. The primary area workers receive radiation exposure is the Radiochemical Engineering Complex airlock. Entry to the airlock is necessary for maintenance of cranes and other equipment, and to set up the rail system used to move large pieces of equipment and shipping casks into and out of the airlock. Transfers of equipment and materials from the hot cells in the complex to the airlock are required to allow dose profiles of waste containers, shuffling of waste containers to allow grouting activities to go on, and to allow maintenance of in-cell cranes. Both DOE and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are currently investing in state-of-the-art decontamination equipment. Challenging goals for exposure reduction were established for several broad areas of activity. Exposure estimates and goals developed from these scheduled activities will be compared against actual exposures for scheduled and unscheduled activities that contributed to exposures received by personnel throughout the year. Included in this report are life cycle exposure estimates by calendar year for the B-Cell Cleanout project, a three-year estimate of exposures associated with Surveillance and Maintenance, and known activities for Calendar Year (CY) 1995 associated with several smaller projects. These reports are intended to provide a foundation for future dose estimates, by year, requiring updating as exposure conditions change or new avenues of approach to performing work are developed

Risk estimates of HIV and HBV infection to the dental operator via ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

RISK ESTIMATES OF HIV AND HBV INFECTION. TO THE DENTAL OPERATOR VIA. PRICK ACCIDENTS. W.H. van Palenstein Helderman. Department of Community and Preventive Dentistry,. Faculty of Dentistry, Muhirilbili University College of Health Sciences,. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. , Introduction. Intact skin provides ...

Life time estimation for irradiation assisted mechanical cracking of PWR RCCA rodlets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matsuoka, Takanori; Yamaguchi, Youichirou [Nuclear Development Corp., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

1999-09-01

Intergranular cracks of cladding tubes had been observed at the tips of the rodlets of PWR rod cluster control assemblies (RCCAs). Because RCCAs were important core components, an investigation was carried out to estimate their service lifetime. The reviews on their mechanism and the life time estimation are shown in this paper. The summaries are as follows. (1) The mechanism of the intergranular crack of the cladding tube was not IASCC but irradiation assisted mechanical cracking (IAMC) caused by an increase in hoop strain due to the swelling of the absorber and a decrease in elongation due to neutron irradiation. (2) The crack initiation limit of cylindrical shells made of low ductile material and subjected to internal pressure was determined in relation to the uniform strain of the material and was in accordance with that of the RCCA rodlets in an actual plant. (3) From the above investigation, the method of estimating the lifetime and countermeasures for its extension were obtained. (author)

Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dong Sun Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

Development of Estimating Equation of Machine Operational Skill by Utilizing Eye Movement Measurement and Analysis of Stress and Fatigue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Suzuki

2013-01-01

Full Text Available For an establishment of a skill evaluation method for human support systems, development of an estimating equation of the machine operational skill is presented. Factors of the eye movement such as frequency, velocity, and moving distance of saccade were computed using the developed eye gaze measurement system, and the eye movement features were determined from these factors. The estimating equation was derived through an outlier test (to eliminate nonstandard data and a principal component analysis (to find dominant components. Using a cooperative carrying task (cc-task simulator, the eye movement and operational data of the machine operators were recorded, and effectiveness of the derived estimating equation was investigated. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimating equation was effective strongly against actual simple skill levels (r=0.56–0.84. In addition, effects of internal condition such as fatigue and stress on the estimating equation were analyzed. Using heart rate (HR and coefficient of variation of R-R interval (Cvrri. Correlation analysis between these biosignal indexes and the estimating equation of operational skill found that the equation reflected effects of stress and fatigue, although the equation could estimate the skill level adequately.

Life-cycle energy of residential buildings in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Yuan; Ries, Robert J.; Wang, Yaowu

2013-01-01

In the context of rapid urbanization and new construction in rural China, residential building energy consumption has the potential to increase with the expected increase in demand. A process-based hybrid life-cycle assessment model is used to quantify the life-cycle energy use for both urban and rural residential buildings in China and determine the energy use characteristics of each life cycle phase. An input–output model for the pre-use phases is based on 2007 Chinese economic benchmark data. A process-based life-cycle assessment model for estimating the operation and demolition phases uses historical energy-intensity data. Results show that operation energy in both urban and rural residential buildings is dominant and varies from 75% to 86% of life cycle energy respectively. Gaps in living standards as well as differences in building structure and materials result in a life-cycle energy intensity of urban residential buildings that is 20% higher than that of rural residential buildings. The life-cycle energy of urban residential buildings is most sensitive to the reduction of operational energy intensity excluding heating energy which depends on both the occupants' energy-saving behavior as well as the performance of the building itself. -- Highlights: •We developed a hybrid LCA model to quantify the life-cycle energy for urban and rural residential buildings in China. •Operation energy in urban and rural residential buildings is dominant, varying from 75% to 86% of life cycle energy respectively. •Compared with rural residential buildings, the life-cycle energy intensity of urban residential buildings is 20% higher. •The life-cycle energy of urban residential buildings is most sensitive to the reduction of daily activity energy

Capital and operating cost estimates for high temperature superconducting magnetic energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenung, S.M.; Meier, W.R.; Fagaly, R.L.; Heiberger, M.; Stephens, R.B.; Leuer, J.A.; Guzman, R.A.

1992-01-01

Capital and operating costs have been estimated for mid-scale (2 to 200 Mwh) superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) designed to use high temperature superconductors (HTS). Capital costs are dominated by the cost of superconducting materials. Operating costs, primarily for regeneration, are significantly reduced for HTS-SMES in comparison to low temperature, conventional systems. This cost component is small compared to other O and M and capital components, when levelized annual costs are projected. In this paper, the developments required for HTS-SMES feasibility are discussed

Estimation of efficiency of new local rehabilitation method at the early post-operative period after dental implantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Pasechnik

2017-01-01

  Summary Despite of success of dental implantation, there are often complications at the early post-operative period of implant placing associated with wound damage and aseptic inflammation. Purpose of the work is studying clinical efficiency of combined local application of new mucosal gel “Apior” and magnetotherapy at the early post-operative period after dental implantation. Combined local application of the mucosal gel “Apior” and pulsating low-frequency electromagnetic field in the complex medical treatment of patients after conducting an operation of setting dental implants favourably affects the common state of patients and clinical symptoms of inflammation in the area of operating wound. As compared with patients who had traditional anti-inflammatory therapy, the patients treated with local application of apigel and magnetoterapy had decline of edema incidence, of gingival mucosa hyperemia, of discomfort in the area of conducted operation. There occurred more rapid improvement of inflammation painfulness, which correlated with the improvement of hygienic state of oral cavity and promoted to prevention of bacterial content of damaged mucous surfaces. Estimation of microvasculatory blood stream by the method of ultrasonic doppler flowmetry revealed more rapid normalization of volume and linear high systole speed of blood stream in the periimplant tissues in case of use of new complex local rehabilitation method, that testified to the less pronounced inflammation of oral mucosa after the operation. The authors came to conclusion that the local application of the offered method of medical treatment of early post-operative complications of dental implantation reduces terms of renewal of structural-functional integrity of oral mucosa, helps in preventing development of inflammatory complications and strengthening endosseus implant. The inclusion in the treatment management of a new combined method of application of mucosal gel “Apior” and

Radiation dose estimates due to air particulate emissions from selected phosphate industry operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Partridge, J.E.; Horton, T.R.; Sensintaffar, E.L.; Boysen, G.A.

1978-06-01

The EPA Office of Radiation Programs has conducted a series of studies to determine the radiological impact of the phosphate mining and milling industry. This report describes the efforts to estimate the radiation doses due to airborne emissions of particulates from selected phosphate milling operations in Florida. Two wet process phosphoric acid plants and one ore drying facility were selected for this study. The 1976 Annual Operations/Emissions Report, submitted by each facility to the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation, and a field survey trip by EPA personnel to each facility were used to develop data for dose calculations. The field survey trip included sampling for stack emissions and ambient air samples collected in the general vicinity of each plant. Population and individual radiation dose estimates are made based on these sources of data

TOPEX: An expert system for estimating and analyzing the operating costs of oil and gas production facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greffioz, J.; Olver, A.J.; Schirmer, P.

1993-01-01

TOPEX is a new approach to operating costs estimation of oil and gas installations. It does not rely on knowledge of the capital cost of the installation and uses a computerized expert system (or knowledge base). Estimates are generated from specific details of the equipment and systems and general databases of prices and man hours. A novel methodology has been developed for quantifying the operational complexity of an installation which is then correlated with operations manpower. The use of a computerized application allows rapid calculation of estimates so that what-if and sensitivity studies can be readily done. The knowledge base provides a powerful tool to handle the large amounts of data involved and acts as a repository for the expertise used in its development

Fatigue life of drilling bit bearings under arbitrary random loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Talimi, M.; Farshidi, R. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

2009-07-01

A fatigue analysis was conducted in order to estimate the bearing life of a roller cone rock bit under arbitrary random loads. The aim of the study was to reduce bearing failures that can interrupt well operations. Fatigue was considered as the main reason for bearing failure. The expected value of cumulative fatigue damage was used to estimate bearing life. An equation was used to express the relation between bearing life and bearing load when the bearing was subjected to a steady load and constant speed. The Palmgren-Miner hypothesis was used to determine the ultimate tensile strength of the material. The rain flow counting principle was used to determine distinct amplitude cycles. Hertzian equations were used to determine maximum stress loads. Fourier series were used to obtain simple harmonic functions for estimating stress-life relations. It was concluded that the method can be used during the well planning phase to prevent bearing failures. 6 refs.

Estimation of life of PVC cables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bora, J.S.; Babar, A.K.

1989-01-01

Life-spans at various extrapolated temperatures corresponding to early, mid and late-stage failures of PVC are quite consistent and is about 32 years at 30degC. For every 10degC rise in ambient temperature life becomes less than half. (author). 2 tabs

Parameterization of mechanical process operations taking into consideration a coefficient of variation and tool life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Sgibnev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This article describes the results of studies on methods for improving the reliability of mechanical process operations of hard-to-machine materials. In serial production hard-to-machine materials processing should be characterized by high reliability, in particular, low dispersion tool life.The aim is to analyze the reliability of a part of the technological system, i.e. the tool for mechanical processing of hard-to-machine materials.The paper analyzes the effect of various input parameters of the technological system (processed material, tool material, technological environment, operating parameters (processing modes on the reliability of the technological system. A feature of this work is to obtain quantitative characteristics of reliability for processing just the hard-to-machine materials. It is an important problem-solving because of the high cost of both the materials and the tool.For various tool, processed materials, and process operation conditions the experiments have been conducted, and, when machining, the tool life has been recorded, thus allowing to obtain the coefficient of variation for high production run of tool. Comparison of coefficients of variation resulted in offering the tool material, process environment, and operation conditions to improve the reliability of the technological system for the specific brands of corrosion resistant steels and alloys and tungsten.It is shown that the tool material and technological environment have the biggest influence on the tool life period T and its coefficient of variation varT. It is noted that materials with a complicated composition have the higher life volatility as compared with the resistance simple alloys. It is shown that an increasing cutting speed is reduced after a certain value of the coefficient of variation due to entrainment outgrowth formed on the cutting edge of the tool.The results obtained allow machining production engineers at the enterprises of serial

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Estimated Mortality of Selected Migratory Bird Species from Mowing and Other Mechanical Operations in Canadian Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg Tews

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Mechanical operations such as mowing, tilling, seeding, and harvesting are well-known sources of direct avian mortality in agricultural fields. However, there are currently no mortality rate estimates available for any species group or larger jurisdiction. Even reviews of sources of mortality in birds have failed to address mechanical disturbance in farm fields. To overcome this information gap we provide estimates of total mortality rates by mechanical operations for five selected species across Canada. In our step-by-step modeling approach we (i quantified the amount of various types of agricultural land in each Bird Conservation Region (BCR in Canada, (ii estimated population densities by region and agricultural habitat type for each selected species, (iii estimated the average timing of mechanical agricultural activities, egg laying, and fledging, (iv and used these values and additional demographical parameters to derive estimates of total mortality by species within each BCR. Based on our calculations the total annual estimated incidental take of young ranged from ~138,000 for Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris to as much as ~941,000 for Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis. Net losses to the fall flight of birds, i.e., those birds that would have fledged successfully in the absence of mechanical disturbance, were, for example ~321,000 for Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus and ~483,000 for Savannah Sparrow. Although our estimates are subject to an unknown degree of uncertainty, this assessment is a very important first step because it provides a broad estimate of incidental take for a set of species that may be particularly vulnerable to mechanical operations and a starting point for future refinements of model parameters if and when they become available.

Quality of life and sexual function of women operated on reproductive system organs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. S. Lashkul

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Aim – to study the effect of planned gynecological operations on the integral characteristics of physical, psychological, emotional, social and sexual functioning of women. Materials and methods. Quality of life and sexual function were studied in 165 patients who underwent planned gynecological operations. Depending on the type of surgical treatment patients were divided into 6 groups: the 1st group – 20 patients (vaginal hysterectomy without FTS, the 2nd group – 23 patients (abdominal hysterectomy without FTS, the 3rd group – 54 patients (laparoscopic operations on the uterine appendages without FTS, the 4th group – 21 patients (vaginal hysterectomy with FTS, the 5th group – 20 patients (abdominal hysterectomy with FTS, the 6th group – 27 patients (laparoscopic operations on the uterine appendages with FTS. To assess the quality of life a short version of the SF-36 questionnaire was used. The questionnaire was developed at the US Institute of Health, author J. E. Ware, and contains 36 items. They are grouped so that they reflect 8 different aspects related to health. The results for each scale are presented in a point scale (from 1 to 100, where a higher score corresponds to a better quality of life. To assess the sexual function a questionnaire was conducted using the female sexual function index (FSFI. The questionnaire includes 19 items that provide of characteristics of desire, excitement, lubrication, orgasm, getting sexual satisfaction and dyspareunia presence assessment. The minimum score is 2, the maximum is 36. Stages of the questionnaire: before the operation and three months after the operation. Results. In patients before and after laparoscopic surgery on uterine appendages without FTS and with FTS, the mean values of the female sexual function index were significantly higher after surgery and reached the maximum value of 36. So, by questionnaire before and after 3 months it has been found that the indicators

Life management of SG for WWER plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trunov, N. B.; Dragunov, Yu. G.; Banyuk, G. F.

2004-01-01

Nowadays, 252 steam generators (SG) of horizontal type are in operation at WWER plants constructed by the Russian designs. In connection with end of the specified service life of the reactor plant equal to 30 years the activities are performed on service life extension of the main equipment including the SG. At some Units, throughout the design service life of SG there were problems resulting in necessity of SG replacement. At the same time the SGs at some Units are in successful operation above the design service life. This report deals with the peculiarities of operation of the horizontal SGs and the problems to be highlighted as the most important for service life extension. The main component to determine possibility for SG service life extension is the SG tubing. As the operating experience shows it is water chemistry of the secondary circuit that is the main factor influencing operability of the SG tubing. Therefore, differences in water chemistry organization leads to significant differences in operability of the SG tubing at various Units and in some cases within one Unit. Owing to the fact that the cases of water chemistry disturbance and the process of tubes fouling with the corrosion products of the main condensate system are not excluded, the damages continue to occur. Tube integrity shall be inspected by eddy current method using the various instrument complexes. This method has certain disadvantages but allows to estimate the degree and direction of degradation processes. The results of eddy current test (ECT) can be used to determine the plugging criterion for defective tubes. The significant number of defective tubes at some Units makes a choice of the plugging criterion to be an important problem, on which solution the SG safety, reliability and service life depends. The report deals with directions of activities in service life management for the SG at WWER plants. Main activities are improvement of water chemistry and non-destructive tests.(author)

The creep life of superheater and reheater tubes under varying pressure conditions in operational boilers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mizen, D.C.; Plastow, B.

1975-01-01

The first of each manufacturer's 500 MW boilers supplied to the CEGB (Central Electricity Generating Board) have been subjected to an extensive programme of tests for performance optimization and safe operation. Around 250 thermocouples on superheater and reheater tubes have in each case been monitored as part of the exercise. The readings are corrected and used to compute creep rupture damage based on internationally agreed stress rupture data and a simple cumulative damage concept. Comparison of the design creep rupture life and the cumulative life consumed has in several applications been invaluable in influencing operating procedures and arranging tube modifications or replacements, so that loss of generation by creep rupture failure is minimized. (author)

Fatigue life estimation on coke drum due to cycle optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Siahaan, Andrey Stephan; Ambarita, Himsar; Kawai, Hideki; Daimaruya, Masashi

2018-04-01

In the last decade, due to the increasing demand of petroleum product, the necessity for converting the heavy oil are increasing. Thus, demand for installing coke drum in whole world will be increase. The coke drum undergoes the cyclic high temperature and suddenly cooling but in fact is not designed to withstand that kind of cycle, thus the operational life of coke drum is much shorter in comparison to other equipment in oil refinery. Various factors determine in order to improve reliability and minimize the down time, and it is found that the cycle optimization due to cycle, temperature, and pressure have an important role. From this research it is found that the fatigue life of the short cycle is decrease by a half compare to the normal cycle. It also found that in the preheating stage, the stress peak is far exceed the yield strength of coke drum material and fall into plastic deformation. This is happened because of the temperature leap in the preheating stage that cause thermal shock in the upper part of the skirt of the coke drum.

Effect of peri-operative chemotherapy on the quality of life of patients with early breast cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kiebert, G. M.; Hanneke, J.; de Haes, J. Hanneke C. J. M.; Kievit, J.; van de Velde, C. J.

1990-01-01

Since chemotherapy is assumed to have a negative impact on quality of life, the impact of peri-operative chemotherapy on physical, psychological and social well-being and on the activity level of patients with early stage breast cancer was investigated. 24 women received peri-operative chemotherapy

Evaluation of Strain-Life Fatigue Curve Estimation Methods and Their Application to a Direct-Quenched High-Strength Steel

Science.gov (United States)

Dabiri, M.; Ghafouri, M.; Rohani Raftar, H. R.; Björk, T.

2018-03-01

Methods to estimate the strain-life curve, which were divided into three categories: simple approximations, artificial neural network-based approaches and continuum damage mechanics models, were examined, and their accuracy was assessed in strain-life evaluation of a direct-quenched high-strength steel. All the prediction methods claim to be able to perform low-cycle fatigue analysis using available or easily obtainable material properties, thus eliminating the need for costly and time-consuming fatigue tests. Simple approximations were able to estimate the strain-life curve with satisfactory accuracy using only monotonic properties. The tested neural network-based model, although yielding acceptable results for the material in question, was found to be overly sensitive to the data sets used for training and showed an inconsistency in estimation of the fatigue life and fatigue properties. The studied continuum damage-based model was able to produce a curve detecting early stages of crack initiation. This model requires more experimental data for calibration than approaches using simple approximations. As a result of the different theories underlying the analyzed methods, the different approaches have different strengths and weaknesses. However, it was found that the group of parametric equations categorized as simple approximations are the easiest for practical use, with their applicability having already been verified for a broad range of materials.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries - Volume 1: Concepts and Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

1991-03-01

Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner to allow evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key nonmanufacturing sectors. This volume lays out the general concepts and methods used to develop the emergency operating estimates. The historical analysis of capacity extends from 1974 through 1986. Some nonmanufacturing industries are included. In addition to mining and utilities, key industries in transportation, communication, and services were analyzed. Physical capacity and efficiency of production were measured. 3 refs., 2 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

Ensemble Kalman Filtering with Residual Nudging: An Extension to State Estimation Problems with Nonlinear Observation Operators

KAUST Repository

Luo, Xiaodong

2014-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an efficient algorithm for many data assimilation problems. In certain circumstances, however, divergence of the EnKF might be spotted. In previous studies, the authors proposed an observation-space-based strategy, called residual nudging, to improve the stability of the EnKF when dealing with linear observation operators. The main idea behind residual nudging is to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the distances (misfits) between the real observations and the simulated ones of the state estimates, in the hope that by doing so one may be able to obtain better estimation accuracy. In the present study, residual nudging is extended and modified in order to handle nonlinear observation operators. Such extension and modification result in an iterative filtering framework that, under suitable conditions, is able to achieve the objective of residual nudging for data assimilation problems with nonlinear observation operators. The 40-dimensional Lorenz-96 model is used to illustrate the performance of the iterative filter. Numerical results show that, while a normal EnKF may diverge with nonlinear observation operators, the proposed iterative filter remains stable and leads to reasonable estimation accuracy under various experimental settings.

Social security wealth and aggregate consumption : An extended life-cycle model estimated for The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zant, W.

In this paper a method is developed to calculate a wealth variable accounting for the existence of the basic old-age provisions in The Netherlands (AOW). In line with Feldstein's extended life-cycle model, consumption functions with (gross) social security wealth are estimated for The Netherlands

Advanced maintenance strategies for power plant operators--introducing inter-plant life cycle management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graeber, Ulrich

2004-01-01

One of the most important goals of competing power plant operators is to ensure safe operation of their plants, characterized by maximum availability throughout the entire life cycle and minimized specific generating costs. One parameter crucial to the total price of electricity--and one that can be actively influenced by the power plant operators--is maintenance. Up to 30% of all electricity generating costs accrue from maintenance. In the past years maintenance measures have been optimized particularly by the application and continuing development of testing and diagnostic techniques, by the increased level of system and component automation as well as more efficient organization structures. Despite the considerable success of these efforts, the potential for further cost reductions is still far from exhausted. But the risks connected to reliability, availability and safety need to be analyzed in greater detail in order to ensure the sustainability of the savings already achieved as well as those yet to be realized. The systematic application of condition-based maintenance and the implementation of structured life cycle management are essential requirements. An inter-plant approach is recommended to make a quick implementation of maintenance optimization potentials possible. Plant-specific improvement potentials can be established with the help of a best-practice comparison, and measures and priorities can be defined for realizing them. Creating an inter-plant database will allow experience and findings to be analyzed quickly and efficiently by experts and made available to all participants on a neutral platform. Despite--or maybe owing to--the increasingly competitive marketplace, a sustained reduction in the maintenance costs of power plant operators can only be achieved through a structured, inter-plant exchange of experience. The ZES offers the industry a suitable platform for cooperation with its 'Condition-Based Maintenance' research focus. The introduction

Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas

OpenAIRE

Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

2013-01-01

Objective To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Design Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. Setting 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Outcome measures Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectan...

Junction temperature estimation method for a 600 V, 30A IGBT module during converter operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Choi, U. M.; Blaabjerg, F.; Iannuzzo, F.

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an accurate method to estimate the junction temperature using the on-state collector-emitter voltage at high current. By means of the proposed method, the estimation error which comes from the different temperatures of the interconnection materials in the module is compensated....... Finally, it leads to satisfactory estimated results. The proposed method has been verified by means of an IR (Infra-Red) camera during power converter operations when the loading current is sinusoidal....

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle LiFePO4 battery life implications of thermal management, driving conditions, and regional climate

Science.gov (United States)

Yuksel, Tugce; Litster, Shawn; Viswanathan, Venkatasubramanian; Michalek, Jeremy J.

2017-01-01

Battery degradation strongly depends on temperature, and many plug-in electric vehicle applications employ thermal management strategies to extend battery life. The effectiveness of thermal management depends on the design of the thermal management system as well as the battery chemistry, cell and pack design, vehicle system characteristics, and operating conditions. We model a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with an air-cooled battery pack composed of cylindrical LiFePO4/graphite cells and simulate the effect of thermal management, driving conditions, regional climate, and vehicle system design on battery life. We estimate that in the absence of thermal management, aggressive driving can cut battery life by two thirds; a blended gas/electric-operation control strategy can quadruple battery life relative to an all-electric control strategy; larger battery packs can extend life by an order of magnitude relative to small packs used for all-electric operation; and batteries last 73-94% longer in mild-weather San Francisco than in hot Phoenix. Air cooling can increase battery life by a factor of 1.5-6, depending on regional climate and driving patterns. End of life criteria has a substantial effect on battery life estimates.

Estimation and Minimization of Embodied Carbon of Buildings: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Akbarnezhad

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Building and construction is responsible for up to 30% of annual global greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, commonly reported in carbon equivalent unit. Carbon emissions are incurred in all stages of a building’s life cycle and are generally categorised into operating carbon and embodied carbon, each making varying contributions to the life cycle carbon depending on the building’s characteristics. With recent advances in reducing the operating carbon of buildings, the available literature indicates a clear shift in attention towards investigating strategies to minimize embodied carbon. However, minimizing the embodied carbon of buildings is challenging and requires evaluating the effects of embodied carbon reduction strategies on the emissions incurred in different life cycle phases, as well as the operating carbon of the building. In this paper, the available literature on strategies for reducing the embodied carbon of buildings, as well as methods for estimating the embodied carbon of buildings, is reviewed and the strengths and weaknesses of each method are highlighted.

Estimating the Value of Life, Injury, and Travel Time Saved Using a Stated Preference Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

2016-06-01

The incidence of fatality over the period 2010-2014 from automobile accidents in North Cyprus is 2.75 times greater than the average for the EU. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments will need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. The objective of this study is to provide local estimates of the value of a statistical life and injury along with the value of time savings. These are among the parameter values needed for the evaluation of the change in the expected incidence of automotive accidents and time savings brought about by such projects. In this study we conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of automobile drivers in North Cyprus for improved travel times, travel costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers choose. These estimates were used to assess the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid fatalities and injuries and to save travel time. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of travel time saved. The estimates for the VSL range from €315,293 to €1,117,856 and the estimates of VI from € 5,603 to € 28,186. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost estimate of the Yucca Mountain repository based on the site characterization plan conceptual design: Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gruer, E.R.; Fowler, M.E.; Rocha, G.A.

1987-06-01

This report of the life-cycle costs of a mined repository in tuff is based on the site characterization conceptual design and contains estimates of two methods of waste emplacement - vertical and horizontal. The life cycle of the repository progresses from design and construction to emplacement operations that last 25 years. When emplacement has ended, a caretaker period begins and continues until 50 years from emplacement of the first waste. The life of the repository concludes with closure and decommissioning, which includes backfilling and sealing the repository, decontaminating and razing the surface facilities, restoring the land to as near its original condition as possible, and marking the site. The estimates, developed for each phase of the life cycle of the repository, are based on January 1986 constant (unescalated) dollars and include an allowance for contingency. This report mainly comprises explanations of design and operating assumptions, estimating methods, exclusions, definition of cost accounts, calculating procedures, data sources, staffing and other qualifying remarks. Cost estimates are approximations of value and should not be construed as exact. The cost and staffing detail provided in this estimate is commensurate with the detail in the conceptual design

Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Curtright, Aimee E.; Samaras, Constantine; Skone, Timothy

2011-01-01

Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs. This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production. -- Highlights: → We describe key model, scenario and data uncertainties in LCAs of biobased fuels. → System boundaries and allocation choices should be consistent with study goals. → Scenarios should be designed around policy levers that can be controlled. → We describe a new way to analyze the importance of covariance between inputs.

Quality of life in elderly age: areas of concern

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melehin A.I.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The quality of life in elderly age has special features, depending primarily on the state of health, assessment of the spent life, internal standards, support and ability to operate effectively in changing circumstances. In later ages estimation of quality of life affects the mechanisms of pathogenesis of somatic and mental disorders. Up to date there is no agreement among researchers on criteria of identification and assessment of the quality of life in later ages. This article describes the modern understanding of quality of life and its components. It highlights the issues impeding the improvement of quality of life. The article lists the methods for the evaluation of quality of life in later ages. It also presents the analysis of the main factors affecting the quality of life in elderly patients.

Fatigue life estimation of a 1D aluminum beam under mode-I loading using the electromechanical impedance technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Yee Yan; Soh, Chee Kiong

2011-01-01

Structures in service are often subjected to fatigue loads. Cracks would develop and lead to failure if left unnoticed after a large number of cyclic loadings. Monitoring the process of fatigue crack propagation as well as estimating the remaining useful life of a structure is thus essential to prevent catastrophe while minimizing earlier-than-required replacement. The advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducers (lead zirconate titanate, PZT) has ushered in a new era of structural health monitoring (SHM) based on non-destructive evaluation (NDE). This paper presents a series of investigative studies to evaluate the feasibility of fatigue crack monitoring and estimation of remaining useful life using the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique employing a PZT transducer. Experimental tests were conducted to study the ability of the EMI technique in monitoring fatigue crack in 1D lab-sized aluminum beams. The experimental results prove that the EMI technique is very sensitive to fatigue crack propagation. A proof-of-concept semi-analytical damage model for fatigue life estimation has been developed by incorporating the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory into the finite element (FE) model. The prediction of the model matches closely with the experiment, suggesting the possibility of replacing costly experiments in future

Fatigue life estimation of a 1D aluminum beam under mode-I loading using the electromechanical impedance technique

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Yee Yan; Kiong Soh, Chee

2011-12-01

Structures in service are often subjected to fatigue loads. Cracks would develop and lead to failure if left unnoticed after a large number of cyclic loadings. Monitoring the process of fatigue crack propagation as well as estimating the remaining useful life of a structure is thus essential to prevent catastrophe while minimizing earlier-than-required replacement. The advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducers (lead zirconate titanate, PZT) has ushered in a new era of structural health monitoring (SHM) based on non-destructive evaluation (NDE). This paper presents a series of investigative studies to evaluate the feasibility of fatigue crack monitoring and estimation of remaining useful life using the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique employing a PZT transducer. Experimental tests were conducted to study the ability of the EMI technique in monitoring fatigue crack in 1D lab-sized aluminum beams. The experimental results prove that the EMI technique is very sensitive to fatigue crack propagation. A proof-of-concept semi-analytical damage model for fatigue life estimation has been developed by incorporating the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory into the finite element (FE) model. The prediction of the model matches closely with the experiment, suggesting the possibility of replacing costly experiments in future.

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

Science.gov (United States)

Remer, D. S.

1977-01-01

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Estimates of secondary waste production from operations at a proespective geologic repository in tuff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engelhard, M.P.; Jardine, L.J.

1985-01-01

In this paper, a method is outlined for estimating the volumes of solid and liquid radioactive wastes produced during the operation of a repository in tuff. Volume estimates were also developed based on a preliminary conceptual facility design. Based on a disposal rate of 3000 MTU/y of commercial spent fuel, the waste estimates ranged from 793 to 2464 m 3 /y of uncompacted solids and from 80,431 to 128,690 L/y of liquids, depending on the specific set of facility features assumed. The estimates of waste quantities were most dependent on variations in the ratio of truck to rail cask shipments received. The quantities of waste generated on site decreased as this ratio decreased. Although there are large uncertainties in the current estimates caused by the preliminary nature of the facility designs and the limited amount of engineering detail completed, the methodology can be used to refine estimates as the repository design progresses

Modeling Operations Costs for Human Exploration Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert

2013-01-01

Operations and support (O&S) costs for human spaceflight have not received the same attention in the cost estimating community as have development costs. This is unfortunate as O&S costs typically comprise a majority of life-cycle costs (LCC) in such programs as the International Space Station (ISS) and the now-cancelled Constellation Program. Recognizing this, the Constellation Program and NASA HQs supported the development of an O&S cost model specifically for human spaceflight. This model, known as the Exploration Architectures Operations Cost Model (ExAOCM), provided the operations cost estimates for a variety of alternative human missions to the moon, Mars, and Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) in architectural studies. ExAOCM is philosophically based on the DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF) concepts of operational nodes, systems, operational functions, and milestones. This paper presents some of the historical background surrounding the development of the model, and discusses the underlying structure, its unusual user interface, and lastly, previous examples of its use in the aforementioned architectural studies.

Experimental research into operating strength and fatigue life of bodywork of buses and trolleybuses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolhof, V.; Kepka, M.; Rehor, P.; Horak, V.; Sima, J.

1992-01-01

Operational strength and fatigue life reliability of trolleybus and bus bodies are usually assessed by computational methods in combination with selected tests. The latter include test runs of vehicles on real routes or on specially designed tracks, tests on complete vehicles under model test conditions and laboratory tests on selected materials, parts and subassemblies. This paper describes a method of experimental investigation of operational strength and reliability developed and applied at the Central Research Institute Skoda for public-transport road vehicles made in Czechoslovakia. (orig.)

Cost of enlarged operating zone for an existing Francis runner

Science.gov (United States)

Monette, Christine; Marmont, Hugues; Chamberland-Lauzon, Joël; Skagerstrand, Anders; Coutu, André; Carlevi, Jens

2016-11-01

Traditionally, hydro power plants have been operated close to best efficiency point, the more stable operating condition for which they have been designed. However, because of changes in the electricity market, many hydro power plants operators wish to operate their machines differently to fulfil those new market needs. New operating conditions can include whole range operation, many start/stops, extensive low load operation, synchronous condenser mode and power/frequency regulation. Many of these new operating conditions may impose more severe fatigue damage than the traditional base load operation close to best efficiency point. Under these conditions, the fatigue life of the runner may be significantly reduced and reparation or replacement cost might occur sooner than expected. In order to design reliable Francis runners for those new challenging operating scenarios, Andritz Hydro has developed various proprietary tools and design rules. These are used within Andritz Hydro to design mechanically robust Francis runners for the operating scenarios fulfilling customer's specifications. To estimate residual life under different operating scenarios of an existing runner designed years ago for best efficiency base load operation, Andritz Hydro's design rules and tools would necessarily lead to conservative results. While the geometry of a new runner can be modified to fulfil all conservative mechanical design rules, the predicted fatigue life of an existing runner under off-design operating conditions may appear rather short because of the conservative safety factor included in the calculations. The most precise and reliable way to calculate residual life of an existing runner under different operating scenarios is to perform a strain gauge measurement campaign on the runner. This paper presents the runner strain gage measurement campaign of a mid-head Francis turbine over all the operating conditions available during the test, the analysis of the measurement signals

A cost and operational effectiveness analysis of alternative anti-surface warfare platforms

OpenAIRE

Skinner, Walter Mark.

1993-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis (COEA) is performed for three alternative anti-surface warfare (ASUW) platforms that will conduct operations in multi-service regional scenarios. Estimated program costs, historical cost variances, and measures of operational effectiveness are determined for each COEA alternative, and service life extension effects are examined. The data is merged in a mixed-integer optimization model, MPA...

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

Life management of Zr 2.5% Nb pressure tube through estimation of fracture properties by cyclic ball indentation technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, S.; Madhusoodanan, K.; Rama Rao, A.

2015-01-01

In Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) fuel bundles are located inside horizontal pressure tubes. Pressure tubes made up of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb undergo degradation during in-service environmental conditions. Measurement of mechanical properties of degraded pressure tubes is important for assessing its fitness for further service in the reactor. The only way to accomplish this important objective is to develop a system based on insitu measurement technique. Considering the importance of such measurement, an In-situ Property Measurement System (IProMS) based on cyclic ball indentation technique has been designed and developed indigenously. The remotely operable system is capable of carrying out indentation trial on the inside surface of the pressure tube and to estimate important mechanical properties like yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, hardness etc. It is known that fracture toughness is one of the important life limiting parameters of the pressure tube. Hence, five spool pieces of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb pressure tube of different mechanical properties have been used for estimation of fracture toughness by ball indentation method. Curved Compact Tension (CCT) specimens were also prepared from the five spool pieces for measurement of fracture toughness from conventional tests. The conventional fracture toughness values were used as reference data. A methodology has been developed to estimate the fracture properties of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb pressure tube material from the analysis of the ball indentation test data. This paper highlights the comparison between tensile properties measured from conventional tests and IProMS trials and relates the fracture toughness parameters measured from conventional tests with the IProMS estimated fracture properties like Indentation Energy to Fracture. (author)

The TileCal Online Energy Estimation for the Next LHC Operation Period

CERN Document Server

Peralva, B S; The ATLAS collaboration; Cerqueira, A S; Seixas, J M

2014-01-01

This work presents a study on the TileCal online energy estimation for the next LHC operation period (Run2). Due to hardware limitation, the algorithm that performs the online energy estimation must remain based on the linear and fast Optimal Filter (OF) technique, which envisages the use of the background covariance matrix in its design. During Run1, TileCal made use of an identity matrix to describe and the background covariance matrix, which showed to be a reasonable approximation for the low luminosity scenario. Under such conditions, the background for most of its cells comprised mainly electronic noise which can be approximated as a uncorrelated Gaussian process. However, as the pile-up introduces a non-Gaussian component to the background, the OF method presents larger variance and it becomes biased. The use of the background covariance matrix in the design of the OF weights is expected to improve the energy estimation performance. The results for the scenario considered show that for high occupancy ce...

Procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

1983-03-01

This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use

Operative and consultative proportions of neurosurgical disease worldwide: estimation from the surgeon perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Dewan, Michael C; Rattani, Abbas; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Faruque, Serena; Johnson, Walter D; Dempsey, Robert J; Haglund, Michael M; Alkire, Blake C; Park, Kee B; Warf, Benjamin C; Shrime, Mark G

2018-05-11

OBJECTIVE The global magnitude of neurosurgical disease is unknown. The authors sought to estimate the surgical and consultative proportion of diseases commonly encountered by neurosurgeons, as well as surgeon case volume and perceived workload. METHODS An electronic survey was sent to 193 neurosurgeons previously identified via a global surgeon mapping initiative. The survey consisted of three sections aimed at quantifying surgical incidence of neurological disease, consultation incidence, and surgeon demographic data. Surgeons were asked to estimate the proportion of 11 neurological disorders that, in an ideal world, would indicate either neurosurgical operation or neurosurgical consultation. Respondent surgeons indicated their confidence level in each estimate. Demographic and surgical practice characteristics-including case volume and perceived workload-were also captured. RESULTS Eighty-five neurosurgeons from 57 countries, representing all WHO regions and World Bank income levels, completed the survey. Neurological conditions estimated to warrant neurosurgical consultation with the highest frequency were brain tumors (96%), spinal tumors (95%), hydrocephalus (94%), and neural tube defects (92%), whereas stroke (54%), central nervous system infection (58%), and epilepsy (40%) carried the lowest frequency. Similarly, surgery was deemed necessary for an average of 88% cases of hydrocephalus, 82% of spinal tumors and neural tube defects, and 78% of brain tumors. Degenerative spine disease (42%), stroke (31%), and epilepsy (24%) were found to warrant surgical intervention less frequently. Confidence levels were consistently high among respondents (lower quartile > 70/100 for 90% of questions), and estimates did not vary significantly across WHO regions or among income levels. Surgeons reported performing a mean of 245 cases annually (median 190). On a 100-point scale indicating a surgeon's perceived workload (0-not busy, 100-overworked), respondents selected a

Mixed Estimates for Degenerate Multilinear Operators Associated to Simplexes

OpenAIRE

Kesler, Robert

2013-01-01

We prove that the degenerate trilinear operator $C_3^{-1,1,1}$ given by the formula \\begin{eqnarray*} C_3^{-1,1,1}(f_1, f_2, f_3)(x)=\\int_{x_1 < x_2 < x_3} \\hat{f_1}(x_1) \\hat{f_2}(x_2) \\hat{f_3}(x_3) e^{2\\pi i x (-x_1 + x_2 + x_3)} dx_1dx_2 dx_3 \\end{eqnarray*} satisfies the new estimates \\begin{eqnarray*} ||C_3^{-1,1,1}(f_1, f_2, f_3)||_{\\frac{1}{\\frac{1}{p_1}+\\frac{1}{p_2}+\\frac{1}{p_3}}} \\lesssim_{p_1, p_2, p_3} ||\\hat{f}_1||_{p^\\prime_1} ||f_2||_{p_2}||f_3||_{p_3} \\end{eqnarray*} for all...

Maintenance optimization and prognostics of residual life - A state of the art report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nystad, Bent

2006-01-15

In many industries a huge part of the daily operational costs are related to maintenance. One key function in cutting costs is in optimization of the maintenance efforts. A major task is to change the work culture and work processes from being repair oriented, with focus on repairing breakdowns, to being proactive and maintain critical parts/systems before failures occur. Estimation of residual life distributions is of great need to obtain an optimum preventive maintenance strategy. In this report two approaches for estimation of residual life are discussed. The first model assumes that the residual life follows a Weibull distribution where the parameters are dependent on expert judgement, inspection data, repair data, and technical health trends. The second model is based on a continuous time Markov chain. In maintenance optimization a quantitative approach like the mean residual life estimation is needed in addition to a qualitative approach like the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) methodology to give support for e.g. optimization of the maintenance overhaul intervals.The use of residual life knowledge in opportunistic maintenance is also discussed.(auth)

E2CAV, Pavement layer thickness estimation system based on image texture operators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brayan Barrios Arcila

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Context: Public roads are an essential part of economic progress in any country; they are fundamental for increasing the efficiency on transportation of goods and are a remarkable source of employment. For its part, Colombia has few statistics on the condition of its roads; according with INVIAS the state of the roads in Colombia can be classified as “Very Good” (21.1%, “Good” (34.7%, and “Regular” or “Bad” (43.46%. Thus, from the point of view of pavement rehabilitation, it is worth securing the quality of those roads classified as “Regular” or “Bad”. Objective: In this paper we propose a system to estimate the thickness of the pavement layer using image segmentation methods. The pavement thickness is currently estimated using radars of terrestrial penetration, extraction of cores or making pips; and it is part of structural parameters in the systems of evaluation of pavement. Method: The proposed system is composed of a vertical movement control unit, which introduces a video scope into a small hole in the pavement, then the images are obtained and unified in a laptop. Finally, this mosaic is processed through texture operators to estimate the thickness of the pavement. Users can select between the Otsu method and Gabor filters to process the image data. Results: The results include laboratory and field tests; these tests show errors of 5.03% and 11.3%, respectively, in the thickness of the pavement. Conclusion: The proposed system is an attractive option for local estimation of pavement thickness, with minimal structural damage and less impact on mobility and number of operators.

Comparing NEXRAD Operational Precipitation Estimates and Raingage Observations of Intense Precipitation in the Missouri River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, C. B.

2002-05-01

Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.

Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

2016-10-01

Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SCC life estimation based on cracks initiated from the corrosion pits of bolting material SCM435 used in steam turbine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Itoh, Hitomi; Ochi, Mayumi; Fujiwara, Isao; Momoo, Takashi

2003-01-01

Life estimation was performed for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that occurs in deaerated and wet hot pure steam at the bottoms of the threads of bolts made of SCM435 (equivalent to AISI 4137) used in steam turbine. SCC is believed to occur when corrosion pits are formed and grow to critical size, after which SCC is initiated and cracks propagate until the critical fracture toughness value is reached. Calculations were performed using laboratory and field data. The results showed that, for a 40mm diameter bolt with 0.2% offset strength of 820MPa, the critical crack depth for straight-front cracks was 5.4mm. The SCC life depends on the lubricant used; the SCC life estimated from this value is approximately 70,000 hours when graphite is used as a lubricant. (author)

A review of life expectancy and infant mortality estimations for Australian Aboriginal people

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Significant variation exists in published Aboriginal mortality and life expectancy (LE) estimates due to differing and evolving methodologies required to correct for inadequate recording of Aboriginality in death data, under-counting of Aboriginal people in population censuses, and unexplained growth in the Aboriginal population attributed to changes in the propensity of individuals to identify as Aboriginal at population censuses. The objective of this paper is to analyse variation in reported Australian Aboriginal mortality in terms of LE and infant mortality rates (IMR), compared with all Australians. Methods Published data for Aboriginal LE and IMR were obtained and analysed for data quality and method of estimation. Trends in reported LE and IMR estimates were assessed and compared with those in the entire Australian population. Results LE estimates derived from different methodologies vary by as much as 7.2 years for the same comparison period. Indirect methods for estimating Aboriginal LE have produced LE estimates sensitive to small changes in underlying assumptions, some of which are subject to circular reasoning. Most indirect methods appear to under-estimate Aboriginal LE. Estimated LE gaps between Aboriginal people and the overall Australian population have varied between 11 and 20 years. Latest mortality estimates, based on linking census and death data, are likely to over-estimate Aboriginal LE. Temporal LE changes by each methodology indicate that Aboriginal LE has improved at rates similar to the Australian population overall. Consequently the gap in LE between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population appears to be unchanged since the early 1980s, and at the end of the first decade of the 21st century remains at least 11–12 years. In contrast, focussing on the 1990–2010 period Aboriginal IMR declined steeply over 2001–08, from more than 12 to around 8 deaths per 1,000 live births, the same level as Australia overall in

Plant life extensions for German nuclear power plants? Controversial discussion profit taking of nuclear power plant operators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthes, Felix C.

2009-10-01

The discussion on the plant life extensions for German nuclear power plants beyond the residual quantity of electricity particularly focus on three aspects: Effects for the emission of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas; Development of the electricity price for which a reduction or attenuation is postulated due to a plant life extension; Skimming of additional profits at operating companies and their use in the safeguarding of the future (development of renewable energies, support of energy efficiency, promotion of the research, consolidation of the public budget, and so on). Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on the profit taking of nuclear power plant operators. The presented analysis considers three aspects: (a) Specification of the quantity structures for the investigated model of plant life extension; (b) The decisive parameter is the revenue situation and thus the price development for electricity at wholesale markets; (c) Determination and evaluation of the course in time of the profit taking.

Boundary conditions and subelliptic estimates for geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries

CERN Document Server

Nier, Francis

2018-01-01

This article is concerned with the maximal accretive realizations of geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries. A general class of boundary conditions is introduced which ensures the maximal accretivity and some global subelliptic estimates. Those estimates imply nice spectral properties as well as exponential decay properties for the associated semigroup. Admissible boundary conditions cover a wide range of applications for the usual scalar Kramer-Fokker-Planck equation or Bismut's hypoelliptic laplacian.

An On-Board Remaining Useful Life Estimation Algorithm for Lithium-Ion Batteries of Electric Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyu Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Battery remaining useful life (RUL estimation is critical to battery management and performance optimization of electric vehicles (EVs. In this paper, we present an effective way to estimate RUL online by using the support vector machine (SVM algorithm. By studying the characteristics of the battery degradation process, the rising of the terminal voltage and changing characteristics of the voltage derivative (DV during the charging process are introduced as the training variables of the SVM algorithm to determine the battery RUL. The SVM is then applied to build the battery degradation model and predict the battery real cycle numbers. Experimental results prove that the built battery degradation model shows higher accuracy and less computation time compared with those of the neural network (NN method, thereby making it a potential candidate for realizing online RUL estimation in a battery management system (BMS.

Use of Neuber's rule to estimate the fatigue life of notched specimens of ASME SA 106-B steel piping in 2880C air

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terrell, J.B.

1989-01-01

Fatigue strain-life tests were conducted on notched specimens of ADMESA 106-B piping steel at PWR operating temperatures (288 0 C (550 0 F)), under completely reversed loading. Fatigue limits at 10 7 cycles were estimated for smooth specimens to be 185 M Pa (26.8 ksi) at 24 0 C and 232 MPa (33.7 ksi) at 288 0 C. The higher fatigue strength observed at the PWR temperature is postulated to be caused by dynamic strain aging processes. However, a reduction in fatigue strength in the low cycle fatigue regime was observed in 288 0 C air environment tests, which may indicate that the current ASME Section III design curve for carbon steels is nonconservative in its positioning. Notch strain histories were estimated for the notched specimen tests using various interpretations of Neuber's rule. It was concluded that the use of the fatigue notch concentration factor (K f ) in the Neuber relation in conjunction with the uniaxial cyclic stress-strain curve provided the best correlation of notched specimen fatigue data with results obtained from smooth specimen tests. The notched specimen strain-life results derived from the application of Neuber's rule alone proved to be conservative when compared with smooth specimen test results to such an extent that Neuber-generated notch stresses and strain amplitudes cannot accurately be compared with the mean data curves derived from the ASME Section III fatigue curves for carbon steels which are based on net section stress measurements. (author)

Planning study and economic feasibility for extended life operation of light water reactor plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negin, C.A.; Goudarzi, L.A.; Kenworthy, L.U.; Lapides, M.E.

1980-01-01

The purpose of this planning study was to perform an assessment of the engineering and economic feasibility of extended life operation of present nuclear power plant units and to recommend future programs that may be warranted by the feasibility assessments. This effort concludes, essentially, that there is sufficient economic motivation for refurbishment to warrant more extensive examination for present plants and to identify possible design modifications that would facilitate extended service life in future plants. The costs of replacing the deterioration-prone equipment in a nuclear power plant appear to represent a small portion of the total plant costs, provided downtime is not excessive. A refurbishment and economic analysis is presented

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Science.gov (United States)

Unal, Resit

1989-01-01

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

A new tool for life cycle inventories of agricultural machinery operations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Lovarelli

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The interest in environmental assessments about agricultural processes is fast growing and asking for new tools for accurate impact evaluations. The methodology commonly used to go through these studies is the life cycle assessment, of which the inventory phase (life cycle inventory, LCI is an essential step. For studies focusing on agricultural productions, the completion of LCI is particularly complex: taking into account the pedo-climatic and mechanical operative variability is evidently difficult. However, the prediction of the environmental impact of mechanical operations caused by the agricultural sector is essential to quantify the impact categories for which it is responsible. A new tool, ENVIAM, was developed to complete LCI to guarantee the availability of local data that describe the mechanical and pedo-climatic conditions occurring in the Po Valley area and widely applicable as well. It calculates mechanical power requests, directly consumed inputs (i.e., fuel, lubricant and material consumption of a productive system by taking into account soil texture, specific machinery operations and coupling solutions as defined by the user. A subdivision of working time and defined engine load have been considered to calculate fuel consumption; with regard to outputs, exhaust gases emissions from internal combustion engines have been assessed by evaluating the emissive stages of belonging as stated by the EU Directive. A case study was also performed to highlight the differences that occur when an analysis is fulfilled in a context with features different from the average, and resulted in significant variations for the inventory. In more details, a comparison was carried out both with Ecoinvent database and within ENVIAM. With regard to fuel consumption, by changing the soil texture, the analysis showed a range between 64%-184% for sandy and clay soils, respectively, if compared with medium texture ones. With this tool, local contexts defined

Estimation of the optimal operating conditions for a radiation chemical neutralization unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Putilov, A.V.; Kamenetskaya, S.A.; Pshezhetskii, S.Ya.; Kazakov, M.S.; Kudryavtsev, S.L.; Petrukhin, N.V.; Misharin, B.A.; Koneev, V.Z.

1985-01-01

An estimate is made of the effect of the hydrodynamic conditions on the efficiency of foam units for the radiation chemical neutralization of impurities, taking into account the penetrating power of accelerated electrons having various energies. Expressions are obtained for calculating the efficiency of such units with sectionized operation of the chamber and taking account of the effect of incomplete mixing of the products of radiolysis through the height of the foam layer

Estimated Impact of the Regional Operational Programme 2007-2013 in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Antonescu

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The evaluation process is a basic element of modern public sector management practice. If this process is well conducted, it can contribute to improved public interventions, increased transparency, accountability and cost-effectiveness. In the European Union, old Member States have a relatively long record of conducting evaluations and acting on their results, especially regarding Structural Funds. For Romania and other new Member States, this process is being introduced increasingly, in particular, after integration. The study analyses the estimated impact of Regional Operational Programme 2007-2013 in Romania.

Analytical Method to Estimate Fatigue Life Time Duration in Service for Runner Blade Mechanism of Kaplan Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana – Maria Budai

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The paper present an analytical method that can be used to determianted fatigue life time duration in service for runner blade mechanism of Kaplan turbines. The study was made for lever button of runer blade mechanism using two analytical relation to calculate the maximum number of stress cycles whereupon the mechanism work without any damage. To estimate fatigue life time duration will be used a formula obtained from one of most comon cumulative damage methodology taking in consideration the real exploatation conditions of a specified Kapaln turbine.

The TileCal Online Energy Estimation for the Next LHC Operation Period

CERN Document Server

Peralva, B S; The ATLAS collaboration

2014-01-01

The ATLAS Tile Calorimeter (TileCal) is the detector used in the reconstruction of hadrons, jets, muons and missing transverse energy from the proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It covers the central part of the ATLAS detector (|η|<1.6). The energy deposited by the particles is read out by approximately 5,000 cells, with double readout channels. The signal provided by the readout electronics for each channel is digitized at 40 MHz and its amplitude is estimated by an optimal filtering algorithm, which expects a single signal with a well-defined shape. However, the LHC luminosity is expected to increase leading to signal pile-up that deforms the signal of interest. Due to limited resources, the current DSP-based hardware setup does not allow the implementation of sophisticated energy estimation methods that deal with the pile-up. Therefore, the technique to be employed for online energy estimation in TileCal for next LHC operation period must be based on fast filters such as the M...

Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

2015-01-01

The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

Estimation of Remained defects in a Safety-Critical Software using Bayesian Belief Network of Software Development Life Cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea Jung

2015-01-01

Some researchers recognized Bayesian belief network (BBN) method to be a promising method of quantifying software reliability. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) comprehensively reviewed various quantitative software reliability methods to identify the most promising methods for use in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) of digital systems of NPPs against a set of the most desirable characteristics developed therein. BBNs are recognized as a promising way of quantifying software reliability and are useful for integrating many aspects of software engineering and quality assurance. The method explicitly incorporates important factors relevant to reliability, such as the quality of the developer, the development process, problem complexity, testing effort, and the operation environment. In this work, a BBN model was developed to estimate the number of remained defects in a safety-critical software based on the quality evaluation of software development life cycle (SDLC). Even though a number of software reliability evaluation methods exist, none of them can be applicable to the safety-critical software in an NPP because software quality in terms of PDF is required for the PSA

Sensory shelf life estimation of minimally processed lettuce considering two stages of consumers' decision-making process.

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Gastón; Giménez, Ana; Gámbaro, Adriana

2008-01-01

The aim of the present work was to study the influence of context, particularly the stage of the decision-making process (purchase vs consumption stage), on sensory shelf life of minimally processed lettuce. Leaves of butterhead lettuce were placed in common polypropylene bags and stored at 5, 10 and 15 degrees C. Periodically, a panel of six assessors evaluated the appearance of the samples, and a panel of 40 consumers evaluated their appearance and answered "yes" or "no" to the questions: "Imagine you are in a supermarket, you want to buy a minimally processed lettuce, and you find a package of lettuce with leaves like this, would you normally buy it?" and "Imagine you have this leaf of lettuce stored in your refrigerator, would you normally consume it?". Survival analysis was used to calculate the shelf lives of minimally processed lettuce, considering both decision-making stages. Shelf lives estimated considering rejection to purchase were significantly lower than those estimated considering rejection to consume. Therefore, in order to be conservative and assure the products' quality, shelf life should be estimated considering consumers' rejection to purchase instead of rejection to consume, as traditionally has been done. On the other hand, results from logistic regressions of consumers' rejection percentage as a function of the evaluated appearance attributes suggested that consumers considered them differently while deciding whether to purchase or to consume minimally processed lettuce.

Preliminary estimates of dose and residual activation of selected components in ring collimation straight of the SNS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ludewig, H.; Catalan-Lasheras, N.; Simos, N.; Walker, J.; Mallen, A.; Wei, J.; Todosow, M.

2000-01-01

The highest doses to components in the SNS ring are expected to be to those located in the collimation straight section. In this paper the authors present estimated doses to magnets and cable located between collimators. In addition the buildup of relatively long half-life radioactive isotopes is estimated, following machine operation and shutdown. Finally, the potential dose to operators approaching the machine following operation and shutdown for four hours is made. The results indicate that selected components might require replacement after several years of full power operation. In addition, the reflection of gamma-rays from the tunnel walls contribute a non-negligible amount to the dose of an operator in the tunnel following machine shutdown

Tools for in service monitoring and testing of riser to prevent failure and extend service life

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ward, Haakon; Bondevik, Jon Olav; Skjerve, Haavard; Tveit, Oeyvind [SeaFlex AS, Asker (Norway)

2005-07-01

Exploration and development of new oil and gas fields is heavily dependant on use of flexible pipes and many field developments would not have been possible without them. The number of flexible risers in service is constantly increasing since relatively few offshore projects have reached the estimated operational life and the operational lifetime of several fields in-service has been extended due to new and improved technology. Many risers have been in service over a large number of years. Some risers have been operated under demanding conditions such as severe dynamic loads, high pressure and temperatures. One may in some cases find that risers actually have shorter service life than estimated in the design phase due to the severe operational conditions. In order to extend the use of the riser, some risers may have to be modified and re-terminated and prepared for a new and less demanding application. In order to operate risers safely, it is important to re-assess the fatigue life in order to prevent potential riser failure. The operator should implement methods and tools for in-service monitoring and testing. This paper addresses efficient and reliable methods and tools for monitoring of critical operational parameters as well as in-service riser testing. A brief description of structural failure modes will also be given in order to understand how to interpret test results in view of potential failure modes. (author)

Nuclear power plants life extension and decommissioning its economic aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Yoshiaki

1994-06-01

In USA where the development of nuclear power was started early, the life of nuclear power plants expires successively around the turn of century, and the serious hindrance to electric power supply is feared. Therefore, the research for extending 40 year approved period of operation is in progress. By the extension of life of nuclear power plants, huge cost reduction is estimated as compared with the construction of new plants. However, due to the rise of the cost for the life extension, there were the cases of forced decommissioning. In this book, the present state of the life extension of nuclear power stations, the economical assessment and analysis of the life extension by DOE, the economical assessment by MIDAS method of Electric Power Research Institute, the economical assessment by cost-benefit method of Northern States Power Co., the assessment of the long term operation possibility of nuclear power stations, the economical assessment system for the life extension in Japan, the present state of the decommissioning of nuclear power stations and that in USA, Canada and Europe, the assessment of the decommissioning cost by OECD/NEA, and the decommissioning cost for thermal power stations are described. (K.I.)

Long Term Operation R and D to Investigate the Technical Basis for Life Extension and License Renewal Decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaertner, John

2012-01-01

Establishing an improved technical basis for long term operation of existing plants is a nuclear industry priority. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has responded with a comprehensive Long Term Operation (LTO) Program addressing this need for existing nuclear power plants world-wide. The program supports both the business decisions necessary to achieve high performance operation and the licensing requirements for operation beyond 60 years. The program selects its R and D priorities in a structured and objective way with much industry input to provide useful results for decisions in the 2014 to 2019 time frame. The program is highly collaborative with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and with EPRI-member utilities. The R and D portfolio includes materials aging (metals, concrete, and cables), modernization of information and control technology, enhanced safety analysis, advanced fuel design, demonstration plant activities, life cycle management, and identification of aging management program need for subsequent license renewal. The program has focussed stakeholders world-wide on the technical issues of long term operation, and it is on-track to provide practical results for life extension and license renewal decisions. (author)

Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

1994-09-01

This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II.

1994-09-01

This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation

An empiric estimate of the value of life: updating the renal dialysis cost-effectiveness standard.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

2009-01-01

Proposals to make decisions about coverage of new technology by comparing the technology's incremental cost-effectiveness with the traditional benchmark of dialysis imply that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis is seen a proxy for the value of a statistical year of life. The frequently used ratio for dialysis has, however, not been updated to reflect more recently available data on dialysis. We developed a computer simulation model for the end-stage renal disease population and compared cost, life expectancy, and quality adjusted life expectancy of current dialysis practice relative to three less costly alternatives and to no dialysis. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for these alternatives relative to the next least costly alternative and no dialysis and analyzed the population distribution of the ratios. Model parameters and costs were estimated using data from the Medicare population and a large integrated health-care delivery system between 1996 and 2003. The sensitivity of results to model assumptions was tested using 38 scenarios of one-way sensitivity analysis, where parameters informing the cost, utility, mortality and morbidity, etc. components of the model were by perturbed +/-50%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis of current practice relative to the next least costly alternative is on average $129,090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ($61,294 per year), but its distribution within the population is wide; the interquartile range is $71,890 per QALY, while the 1st and 99th percentiles are $65,496 and $488,360 per QALY, respectively. Higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were associated with older age and more comorbid conditions. Sensitivity to model parameters was comparatively small, with most of the scenarios leading to a change of less than 10% in the ratio. The value of a statistical year of life implied by dialysis practice currently averages $129,090 per QALY ($61,294 per year), but

[Discussion on Quality Evaluation Method of Medical Device During Life-Cycle in Operation Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process].

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Caixian; Zheng, Kun; Shen, Yunming; Wu, Yunyun

2016-01-01

The content related to the quality during life-cycle in operation of medical device includes daily use, repair volume, preventive maintenance, quality control and adverse event monitoring. In view of this, the article aims at discussion on the quality evaluation method of medical devices during their life cycle in operation based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The presented method is proved to be effective by evaluating patient monitors as example. The method presented in can promote and guide the device quality control work, and it can provide valuable inputs to decisions about purchase of new device.

3. International Conference on Nuclear Power Plant Life Management (PLiM) for Long Term Operations (LTO). Keynotes, papers, presentations, posters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The world's fleet of nuclear power plants is, on average, more than 20 years old. Even though the design life of a nuclear power plant is typically 30-40 years, many plants will operate in excess of their design lives, provided that nuclear power plant engineers demonstrate by analysis, equipment and system upgrades, increased vigilance, testing and ageing management that the plant will operate safely. In the operation of nuclear power plants, safety should always be the prime consideration. Plant operators and regulators must always ensure that plant safety is maintained and, where possible, enhanced during its operating lifetime. Nuclear power plant life management (PLiM) has gained increased attention over the past decade, and effective ageing management of systems, structures and components (SSCs) is a key element in PLiM for the safe and reliable long term operation of nuclear power plants. A PLiM programme is an effective tool that allows an operator to safely and cost effectively manage ageing effects in SSCs for long term operation (LTO). A PLiM programme helps facilitate decisions concerning when and how to repair, replace or modify SSCs in an economically optimized way, while assuring that a high level of safety is maintained. The option for extended nuclear power plant operation has been recognized by operators and regulators alike, as evidenced in the number of licence renewal programmes that are being developed by Member States. After the severe accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the safe operation of nuclear power plants has become even more important; not only in terms of technical or ageing issues, but also in terms of management system and qualified workforce related issues. Application of an integrated management system and structured workforce planning are needed throughout the plant life in order to ensure effective plant organization and management. The IAEA organized the first and second International Conference on Nuclear

Estimating energy requirement in cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) nut processing operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jekayinfa, S.O. [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, P.M.B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State (Nigeria); Bamgboye, A.I. [Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Ibadan, Ibadan (Nigeria)

2006-07-15

This work deals with a study on estimation of energy consumption in eight readily defined unit operations of cashew nut processing. Data for analysis were collected from nine cashew nut mills stratified into small, medium and large categories to represent different mechanization levels. Series of equations were developed to easily compute requirements of electricity, fuel and labour for each of the unit operations. The computation of energy use was done using spreadsheet program on Microsoft Excel. The results of application test of the equations show that the total energy intensity in the cashew nut mills varied between 0.21 and 1.161MJ/kg. Electrical energy intensity varied between 0.0052 and 0.029MJ/kg, while thermal energy intensity varied from 0.085 to 1.064MJ/kg. The two identified energy intensive operations in cashew nut processing are cashew nut drying and cashew nut roasting, altogether accounting for over 85% of the total energy consumption in all the three mill categories. Thermal energy, obtained from diesel fuel, represented about 90% of the unit energy cost for cashew nut processing. The developed equations have therefore proven to be a useful tool for carrying out budgeting, forecasting energy requirements and planning plant expansion. (author)

Gains in life expectancy after elimination of major causes of death: revised estimates taking into account the effect of competing causes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.; Lautenbach, H.; Oei, Y. B.; Bijlsma, F.

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND: It is generally acknowledged that conventional estimates of the potential number of life years to be gained by elimination of causes of death are too generous. This is because these estimates fail to take into account the fact that those who are saved from the cause are likely to have

Municipal solid waste conversion to transportation fuels: a life-cycle estimation of global warming potential and energy consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pressley, Phillip N.; Aziz, Tarek N.; DeCarolis, Joseph F.

2014-01-01

This paper utilizes life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate the conversion of U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) to liquid transportation fuels via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). The model estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) associated...

Estimation of the shelf life of canned marinated hearts of artichoke (Cynara scolymus L. and the content of omega 3 and omega 6

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Rojas Padilla

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In this study we estimated shelf life of canned marinated hearts of artichoke (Cynara scolymus L. which had the major sensory preference in color and flavor evaluated by a semi trained panel conformed by 15 judges. Also omega 3 and omega 6 content was determined (28.69 g/100g y 43.26 g/100g of fat respectively which are within the limit approved by the World Health Organization. It was done the estimation of the shelf life by accelerated testing, the samples were incubated at 37ºC, 49ºC and 55ºC, evaluating the kinetic of deterioration of the fat in function of the peroxide index that followed a reaction of order zero. The temperature effect was evaluated with the equation of Arrhenius, and the activation energy was 96115.6 J/mol. At a storage temperature of 20 ºC, the estimation of shelf life was 892 days.

Estimating directional epistasis

Science.gov (United States)

Le Rouzic, Arnaud

2014-01-01

Epistasis, i.e., the fact that gene effects depend on the genetic background, is a direct consequence of the complexity of genetic architectures. Despite this, most of the models used in evolutionary and quantitative genetics pay scant attention to genetic interactions. For instance, the traditional decomposition of genetic effects models epistasis as noise around the evolutionarily-relevant additive effects. Such an approach is only valid if it is assumed that there is no general pattern among interactions—a highly speculative scenario. Systematic interactions generate directional epistasis, which has major evolutionary consequences. In spite of its importance, directional epistasis is rarely measured or reported by quantitative geneticists, not only because its relevance is generally ignored, but also due to the lack of simple, operational, and accessible methods for its estimation. This paper describes conceptual and statistical tools that can be used to estimate directional epistasis from various kinds of data, including QTL mapping results, phenotype measurements in mutants, and artificial selection responses. As an illustration, I measured directional epistasis from a real-life example. I then discuss the interpretation of the estimates, showing how they can be used to draw meaningful biological inferences. PMID:25071828

Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

Absolute Monotonicity of Functions Related To Estimates of First Eigenvalue of Laplace Operator on Riemannian Manifolds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Qi

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The authors find the absolute monotonicity and complete monotonicity of some functions involving trigonometric functions and related to estimates the lower bounds of the first eigenvalue of Laplace operator on Riemannian manifolds.

Application of Mathematica Software for Estimate the Fatigue Life Time Duration of Mechanical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petru Florin Minda

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The paper present how we can use Mathematica to solve the equations types usually used to determinate the maximum stress cycles that can be support by a mechanical system until he will be out of use. To illustrate the type of equations used in specialized literature to estimate fatigue life time duration was chosen a specific case of mechanical structure applied to fatigue. It is about lever button of runner blade mechanism of Kaplan turbine, that in function support a very intensive alternative strain.

Robust Models for Operator Workload Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

piloted aircraft (RPA) simultaneously, a vast improvement in resource utilization compared to existing operations that require several operators per...into distinct cognitive channels (visual, auditory, spatial, etc.) based on our ability to multitask effectively as long as no one channel is

What are patient goals after an anterior colporrhaphy operation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kousgaard, Sabrina J; Bjørk, Jonna; Glavind, Karin

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe patient-reported goals after an anterior colporrhaphy operation for anterior vaginal wall prolapse, the fulfilment of goals, and the correlation with subjective patient-reported outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective study involving 100 women....... Preoperatively, patients completed three modified questions from the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire - Vaginal Symptoms (ICIQ-VS) named ICIQ-VS short form (ICIQ-VS SF) and stated three goals for the operation. A telephone interview was performed 3 months postoperatively. RESULTS......: A Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) score from one to 10 estimated the extent to which goals were achieved. Goals were divided into eight groups: 1: mechanical symptoms (bulging), 2: voiding symptoms, 3: quality of life (physical), 4: quality of life (emotional), 5: avoidance of urinary tract infection, 6: cure...

Decision support for life extension of technical systems through virtual age modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez Ramírez, Pedro A.; Utne, Ingrid Bouwer

2013-01-01

This article presents a virtual age model for decision support regarding life extension of ageing repairable systems. The aim of the model is to evaluate different life extension decision alternatives and their impact on the future performance of the system. The model can be applied to systems operated continuously (e.g., process systems) and systems operated on demand (e.g., safety systems). Deterioration and efficiency of imperfect maintenance is assessed when there is limited or no degradation data, and only failure and maintenance data is available. Systems that are in operation can be studied, meaning that the systems may be degraded. The current degradation is represented by a “current virtual age”, which is calculated from recorded maintenance data. The model parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood method. A case study illustrates the application of the model for life extension of two fire water pumps in an oil and gas facility. The performance of the pump system is assessed with respect to number of failures, safety unavailability and costs during the life extension period. -- Highlights: ► Life extension assessment of technical systems using virtual age model is proposed. ► A virtual age model is generalised for systems in stand-by and continuous operation. ► The concept of current virtual age describes technical condition of the system. ► Different decision alternatives for life extension can be easily analysed. ► The decision process is improved even when only scarce failure data is available

Effects on fatigue life of gate valves due to higher torque switch settings during operability testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richins, W.D.; Snow, S.D.; Miller, G.K.; Russell, M.J.; Ware, A.G.

1995-12-01

Some motor operated valves now have higher torque switch settings due to regulatory requirements to ensure valve operability with appropriate margins at design basis conditions. Verifying operability with these settings imposes higher stem loads during periodic inservice testing. These higher test loads increase stresses in the various valve internal parts which may in turn increase the fatigue usage factors. This increased fatigue is judged to be a concern primarily in the valve disks, seats, yokes, stems, and stem nuts. Although the motor operators may also have significantly increased loading, they are being evaluated by the manufacturers and are beyond the scope of this study. Two gate valves representative of both relatively weak and strong valves commonly used in commercial nuclear applications were selected for fatigue analyses. Detailed dimensional and test data were available for both valves from previous studies at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Finite element models were developed to estimate maximum stresses in the internal parts of the valves and to identity the critical areas within the valves where fatigue may be a concern. Loads were estimated using industry standard equations for calculating torque switch settings prior and subsequent to the testing requirements of USNRC Generic Letter 89--10. Test data were used to determine both; (1) the overshoot load between torque switch trip and final seating of the disk during valve closing and (2) the stem thrust required to open the valves. The ranges of peak stresses thus determined were then used to estimate the increase in the fatigue usage factors due to the higher stem thrust loads. The usages that would be accumulated by 100 base cycles plus one or eight test cycles per year over 40 and 60 years of operation were calculated

Biomedical programs operations plans

Science.gov (United States)

Walbrecher, H. F.

1974-01-01

Operational guidelines for the space shuttle life sciences payloads are presented. An operational assessment of the medical experimental altitude test for Skylab, and Skylab life sciences documentation are discussed along with the operations posture and collection of space shuttle operational planning data.

Earth Observation-Based Operational Estimation of Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration for Agricultural Crops in Support of Sustainable Water Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George P. Petropoulos

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Global information on the spatio-temporal variation of parameters driving the Earth’s terrestrial water and energy cycles, such as evapotranspiration (ET rates and surface soil moisture (SSM, is of key significance. The water and energy cycles underpin global food and water security and need to be fully understood as the climate changes. In the last few decades, Earth Observation (EO technology has played an increasingly important role in determining both ET and SSM. This paper reviews the state of the art in the use specifically of operational EO of both ET and SSM estimates. We discuss the key technical and operational considerations to derive accurate estimates of those parameters from space. The review suggests significant progress has been made in the recent years in retrieving ET and SSM operationally; yet, further work is required to optimize parameter accuracy and to improve the operational capability of services developed using EO data. Emerging applications on which ET/SSM operational products may be included in the context specifically in relation to agriculture are also highlighted; the operational use of those operational products in such applications remains to be seen.

In-operation inspection technology development-4 ''development of degradation prediction technology for motor-operated valves''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuo, Takeshima; Yuichi, Higashikawa; Masahiro, Koike; Kenji, Matsumoto; Eiji, O'shima

2001-01-01

A method for degradation predicting technology has been proposed for motor operated valves in nuclear power plants which is based on the concept of condition monitoring for maintenance. This method (degradation prediction technology) eliminates the unnecessary overhaul of valves and realizes high reliability and economy. The degradation mechanism was clarified by long time heating experiments of gasket and gland packing and the wear test for them and stem nut to research valve parts degradation by stress (pressure, temperature, etc) during plant operation. Effective electric power measurements for motor operated valves were confirmed to be useful discovering valve part failures. The motor operated valve degradation prediction system was developed on the basis of the experiment results and mechanism. The system is able to predict the degradation of valve parts (gasket/gland packing, stem, stem nut, etc) utilizing plant data (pressure, temperature, etc) and effective power of the motor. The life of valve parts can be estimated from the experimental results. (authors)

Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) of Foodservice Operation, Dietary Life Education, and Nutrition Counseling Tasks of Nutrition Teachers and Dietitians in Jeju, Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Eun A; Chae, In Sook; Jo, Mi Na

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze foodservice operation, dietary life education, and nutrition counseling tasks of nutrition teachers and dietitians in elementary, middle, and high schools in Jeju, Korea, and to provide effective ways to implement dietary life education and nutrition counseling in schools. This study surveyed 94 nutrition teachers and 46 dietitians working at elementary, middle, and high schools in Jeju during 7–14 May 2015. The importance and performance of 16 tasks of nutrition teachers and dietitians were measured using questionnaires. The data was analyzed by using the SPSS software and Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA). Importance was ranked in the order of foodservice operation (4.72), dietary life education (4.37), and nutrition counseling (4.24); and performance was ranked in the order of foodservice operation (4.48), dietary life education (3.70), and nutrition counseling (3.22). The importance–performance matrix showed that in Quadrant 4, the “Concentrate Here” item was “nutrition and dietary life education for students”, while in Quadrant 2, the “Possible Overkill” item was “cost control and office management”. These findings suggest that it is important to reduce unnecessary administrative and office management tasks in order for nutrition teachers and dietitians to implement effective nutrition education, dietary life education, and nutrition counseling programs. PMID:29065495

Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven I-Jy Chien

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

Gas fired combined cycle plant in Singapore: energy use, GWP and cost-a life cycle approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kannan, R.; Leong, K.C.; Osman, Ramli; Ho, H.K.; Tso, C.P.

2005-01-01

A life cycle assessment was performed to quantify the non-renewable (fossil) energy use and global warming potential (GWP) in electricity generation from a typical gas fired combined cycle power plant in Singapore. The cost of electricity generation was estimated using a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) tool. The life cycle assessment (LCA) of a 367.5 MW gas fired combined cycle power plant operating in Singapore revealed that hidden processes consume about 8% additional energy in addition to the fuel embedded energy, and the hidden GWP is about 18%. The natural gas consumed during the operational phase accounted for 82% of the life cycle cost of electricity generation. An empirical relation between plant efficiency and life cycle energy use and GWP in addition to a scenario for electricity cost with varying gas prices and plant efficiency have been established

Cumulative damage and estimation of residual life in metallic alloys under creep

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silveira, T.L. da.

1980-07-01

The mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics have been determined for a group of materials tested under conditions of creep, and the ability of various models detailed in the literature to describe these observed characteristics discussed. The parametric methods employed in formulating the indices which define the allowable stresses for design codes have been analysed, and a method of Minimum Standard Deviation (MSD) for construction of reference curves has been proposed. The constitutive equations used in the methods of analysis of creep stresses have been discussed. Finally, the accumulated damage by creep in a particular structure which had been in extended service has been characterized and, based on these observations, the methods for estimation of remaining life in industrial equipment have been analysed. (Author) [pt

An attempt to estimate the economic value of the loss of human life due to landslide and flood events in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Salvati, Paola; Bianchi, Cinzia; Hussin, Haydar; Guzzetti, Fausto

2013-04-01

Landslide and flood events in Italy cause wide and severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, and are frequently involved in the loss of human life. The cost estimates of past natural disasters generally refer to the amount of public money used for the restoration of the direct damage, and most commonly do not account for all disaster impacts. Other cost components, including indirect losses, are difficult to quantify and, among these, the cost of human lives. The value of specific human life can be identified with the value of a statistical life (VLS), defined as the value that an individual places on a marginal change in their likelihood of death This is different from the value of an actual life. Based on information of fatal car accidents in Italy, we evaluate the cost that society suffers for the loss of life due to landslide and flood events. Using a catalogue of fatal landslide and flood events, for which information about gender and age of the fatalities is known, we determine the cost that society suffers for the loss of their life. For the purpose, we calculate the economic value in terms of the total income that the working-age population involved in the fatal events would have earned over the course of their life. For the computation, we use the pro-capita income calculated as the ratio between the GDP and the population value in Italy for each year, since 1980. Problems occur for children and retired people that we decided not to include in our estimates.

Pilot-scale data provide enhanced estimates of the life cycle energy and emissions profile of algae biofuels produced via hydrothermal liquefaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaowei; Saydah, Benjamin; Eranki, Pragnya; Colosi, Lisa M; Greg Mitchell, B; Rhodes, James; Clarens, Andres F

2013-11-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been used widely to estimate the environmental implications of deploying algae-to-energy systems even though no full-scale facilities have yet to be built. Here, data from a pilot-scale facility using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is used to estimate the life cycle profiles at full scale. Three scenarios (lab-, pilot-, and full-scale) were defined to understand how development in the industry could impact its life cycle burdens. HTL-derived algae fuels were found to have lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than petroleum fuels. Algae-derived gasoline had significantly lower GHG emissions than corn ethanol. Most algae-based fuels have an energy return on investment between 1 and 3, which is lower than petroleum biofuels. Sensitivity analyses reveal several areas in which improvements by algae bioenergy companies (e.g., biocrude yields, nutrient recycle) and by supporting industries (e.g., CO2 supply chains) could reduce the burdens of the industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiotelemetry to estimate stream life of adult chum salmon in the McNeil River, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Peirce, Joshua M.; Otis, Edward O.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Follmann, Erich H.

2011-01-01

Estimating salmon escapement is one of the fundamental steps in managing salmon populations. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) method is commonly used to convert periodic aerial survey counts into annual salmon escapement indices. The AUC requires obtaining accurate estimates of stream life (SL) for target species. Traditional methods for estimating SL (e.g., mark–recapture) are not feasible for many populations. Our objective in this study was to determine the average SL of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta in the McNeil River, Alaska, through radiotelemetry. During the 2005 and 2006 runs, 155 chum salmon were fitted with mortality-indicating radio tags as they entered the McNeil River and tracked until they died. A combination of remote data loggers, aerial surveys, and foot surveys were used to determine the location of fish and provide an estimate of time of death. Higher predation resulted in tagged fish below McNeil Falls having a significantly shorter SL (12.6 d) than those above (21.9 d). The streamwide average SL (13.8 d) for chum salmon at the McNeil River was lower than the regionwide value (17.5 d) previously used to generate AUC indices of chum salmon escapement for the McNeil River. We conclude that radiotelemetry is an effective tool for estimating SL in rivers not well suited to other methods.

Velocity Estimation in Medical Ultrasound [Life Sciences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Villagómez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Holbek, Simon

2017-01-01

This article describes the application of signal processing in medical ultrasound velocity estimation. Special emphasis is on the relation among acquisition methods, signal processing, and estimators employed. The description spans from current clinical systems for one-and two-dimensional (1-D an...

The prediction of the residual life of electromechanical equipment based on the artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhukovskiy, Yu L.; Korolev, N. A.; Babanova, I. S.; Boikov, A. V.

2017-10-01

This article is devoted to the prediction of the residual life based on an estimate of the technical state of the induction motor. The proposed system allows to increase the accuracy and completeness of diagnostics by using an artificial neural network (ANN), and also identify and predict faulty states of an electrical equipment in dynamics. The results of the proposed system for estimation the technical condition are probability technical state diagrams and a quantitative evaluation of the residual life, taking into account electrical, vibrational, indirect parameters and detected defects. Based on the evaluation of the technical condition and the prediction of the residual life, a decision is made to change the control of the operating and maintenance modes of the electric motors.

Estimation of uranium resources by life-cycle or discovery-rate models: a critique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, D.P.

1976-10-01

This report was motivated primarily by M. A. Lieberman's ''United States Uranium Resources: An Analysis of Historical Data'' (Science, April 30). His conclusion that only 87,000 tons of U 3 O 8 resources recoverable at a forward cost of $8/lb remain to be discovered is criticized. It is shown that there is no theoretical basis for selecting the exponential or any other function for the discovery rate. Some of the economic (productivity, inflation) and data issues involved in the analysis of undiscovered, recoverable U 3 O 8 resources on discovery rates of $8 reserves are discussed. The problem of the ratio of undiscovered $30 resources to undiscovered $8 resources is considered. It is concluded that: all methods for the estimation of unknown resources must employ a model of some form of the endowment-exploration-production complex, but every model is a simplification of the real world, and every estimate is intrinsically uncertain. The life-cycle model is useless for the appraisal of undiscovered, recoverable U 3 O 8 , and the discovery rate model underestimates these resources

Reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty cost-effectiveness: A quality-adjusted life years comparison with total hip arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachman, Daniel; Nyland, John; Krupp, Ryan

2016-02-18

To compare reverse-total shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) cost-effectiveness with total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. This study used a stochastic model and decision-making algorithm to compare the cost-effectiveness of RSA and total hip arthroplasty. Fifteen patients underwent pre-operative, and 3, 6, and 12 mo post-operative clinical examinations and Short Form-36 Health Survey completion. Short form-36 Health Survey subscale scores were converted to EuroQual Group Five Dimension Health Outcome scores and compared with historical data from age-matched patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) improvements based on life expectancies were calculated. The cost/QALY was $3900 for total hip arthroplasty and $11100 for RSA. After adjusting the model to only include shoulder-specific physical function subscale items, the RSA QALY improved to 2.8 years, and its cost/QALY decreased to $8100. Based on industry accepted standards, cost/QALY estimates supported both RSA and total hip arthroplasty cost-effectiveness. Although total hip arthroplasty remains the quality of life improvement "gold standard" among arthroplasty procedures, cost/QALY estimates identified in this study support the growing use of RSA to improve patient quality of life.

Your Lung Operation: After Your Operation

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... Mentoring for Excellence in Trauma Surgery Advanced Trauma Life Support Verification, Review, and Consultation Program for Hospitals ... Surgical Skills for Exposure in Trauma Advanced Trauma Life Support Advanced Trauma Operative Management Basic Endovascular Skills ...

Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

Science.gov (United States)

Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

2018-01-01

Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

An applicable method for efficiency estimation of operating tray distillation columns and its comparison with the methods utilized in HYSYS and Aspen Plus

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghifar, Hamidreza

2015-10-01

Developing general methods that rely on column data for the efficiency estimation of operating (existing) distillation columns has been overlooked in the literature. Most of the available methods are based on empirical mass transfer and hydraulic relations correlated to laboratory data. Therefore, these methods may not be sufficiently accurate when applied to industrial columns. In this paper, an applicable and accurate method was developed for the efficiency estimation of distillation columns filled with trays. This method can calculate efficiency as well as mass and heat transfer coefficients without using any empirical mass transfer or hydraulic correlations and without the need to estimate operational or hydraulic parameters of the column. E.g., the method does not need to estimate tray interfacial area, which can be its most important advantage over all the available methods. The method can be used for the efficiency prediction of any trays in distillation columns. For the efficiency calculation, the method employs the column data and uses the true rates of the mass and heat transfers occurring inside the operating column. It is highly emphasized that estimating efficiency of an operating column has to be distinguished from that of a column being designed.

Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment. Operational Guide to the ISO Standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guinee, J.B. [Centre of Environmental Studies, Leiden University, Leiden (Netherlands)

2002-04-01

In 1992 the Centre of Environmental Science (CML) at Leiden University, The Netherlands, published a Guide on Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, setting the standard for a long time. Since then LCA methodology has progressed enormously and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a series of Standards on LCA. These developments have now been incorporated into a new Handbook on LCA authored by CML in cooperation with a number of other important institutes in the area of LCA. The general aim of this Handbook on LCA is to provide a stepwise 'cookbook' with operational guidelines for conducting an LCA study step-by-step, justified by a scientific background document, based on the ISO Standards for LCA. The different ISO elements and requirements are made operational to the 'best available practice' for each step. CML is strongly involved in the development of a standard methodology to determine environmental impacts of products, i.e., LCA. This is done within international fora such as the Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)

Development of GP and GEP models to estimate an environmental issue induced by blasting operation.

Science.gov (United States)

Faradonbeh, Roohollah Shirani; Hasanipanah, Mahdi; Amnieh, Hassan Bakhshandeh; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Monjezi, Masoud

2018-05-21

Air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most adverse effects induced by blasting in the surface mines and civil projects. So, proper evaluation and estimation of the AOp is important for minimizing the environmental problems resulting from blasting. The main aim of this study is to estimate AOp produced by blasting operation in Miduk copper mine, Iran, developing two artificial intelligence models, i.e., genetic programming (GP) and gene expression programming (GEP). Then, the accuracy of the GP and GEP models has been compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) and three empirical models. For this purpose, 92 blasting events were investigated, and subsequently, the AOp values were carefully measured. Moreover, in each operation, the values of maximum charge per delay and distance from blast points, as two effective parameters on the AOp, were measured. After predicting by the predictive models, their performance prediction was checked in terms of variance account for (VAF), coefficient of determination (CoD), and root mean square error (RMSE). Finally, it was found that the GEP with VAF of 94.12%, CoD of 0.941, and RMSE of 0.06 is a more precise model than other predictive models for the AOp prediction in the Miduk copper mine, and it can be introduced as a new powerful tool for estimating the AOp resulting from blasting.

Should solar photovoltaics be deployed sooner because of long operating life at low, predictable cost?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zweibel, Ken

2010-01-01

Governments subsidize the deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) because PV is deployed for societal purposes. About seven thousand megawatts were deployed in 2009 and over 10,000 are expected in 2010. Yet this is too slow to strongly affect energy and environmental challenges. Faster societal deployment is slowed because PV is perceived to be too costly. Classic economic evaluations would put PV electricity in the range of 15-50 c/kWh, depending on local sunlight and system size. But PV has an unusual, overlooked value: systems can last for a very long time with almost no operating costs, much like, e.g., the Hoover Dam. This long life is rarely taken into account. The private sector cannot use it because far-future cash flow does not add to asset value. But we should not be evaluating PV by business metrics. Governments already make up the difference in return on investment needed to deploy PV. PV deployment is government infrastructure development or direct purchases. Thus the question is: Does the usually unevaluated aspect of long life at predictably low operating costs further motivate governments to deploy more PV, sooner?

Reflections on greenhouse gas life cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jarrell, J.; Phillips, B.; Pendergast, D.

1999-01-01

The amount of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas emitted per unit of electricity produced is an important consideration in the planning of future greenhouse gas reduced electricity supply systems. Useful estimates of emissions must also take into account the entire cradle to grave life cycle emissions of alternative systems. Thus emissions of greenhouse gases take into account all of the components of building operating, and decommissioning facilities. This requires an accounting of emissions from production of all materials used to build the plants, transportation of materials to the site as well as fuels used for their construction, operation, and decommissioning. The construction of facilities may also have effects which tend to affect greenhouse gas emissions through modification of the local environment. A notable example, often cited, is the evolution of methane from the decay of organic matter submerged by dams built to serve hydro power facilities. In the long term, we anticipate that some kind of cost will be associated with the release of greenhouse gases. In that event it may be argued that the modified economic system established by inclusion of this cost will naturally control the emission of greenhouse gases from competing means of electricity production. Greenhouse gas emissions from all stages involved in the birth and retirement of electricity producing plant could be suitably constrained as the least cost method of production is sought. Such an ideal system is far from in place. At this point in time the results of life cycle accounting of greenhouse gas emissions are a needed means of comparing emissions from alternative sources of electricity. Many life cycle studies have been undertaken in the past. Many of the estimates are based on past practice which does not take into account any possible need to limit the production of greenhouse gas during the design of the plant and operational processes. Sources of energy used to produce materials

Real time estimation of photovoltaic modules characteristics and its application to maximum power point operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garrigos, Ausias; Blanes, Jose M.; Carrasco, Jose A. [Area de Tecnologia Electronica, Universidad Miguel Hernandez de Elche, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, 03202 Elche, Alicante (Spain); Ejea, Juan B. [Departamento de Ingenieria Electronica, Universidad de Valencia, Avda. Dr Moliner 50, 46100 Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

2007-05-15

In this paper, an approximate curve fitting method for photovoltaic modules is presented. The operation is based on solving a simple solar cell electrical model by a microcontroller in real time. Only four voltage and current coordinates are needed to obtain the solar module parameters and set its operation at maximum power in any conditions of illumination and temperature. Despite its simplicity, this method is suitable for low cost real time applications, as control loop reference generator in photovoltaic maximum power point circuits. The theory that supports the estimator together with simulations and experimental results are presented. (author)

Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease.

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

2016-01-01

Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAE CC ) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAE CC , whereby fifty 2 nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system.

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sundaram, Meenakshi

2005-01-01

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Modeling Operating Modes during Plant Life Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Sten Bay; Lind, Morten

2012-01-01

Modelling process plants during normal operation requires a set a basic assumptions to define the desired functionalities which lead to fullfillment of the operational goal(-s) for the plant. However during during start-up and shut down as well as during batch operation an ensemble of interrelated...... modes are required to cover the whole operational window of a processs plant including intermediary operating modes. Development of such an model ensemble for a plant would constitute a systematic way of defining the possible plant operating modes and thus provide a platform for also defining a set...... of candidate control structures. The present contribution focuses on development of a model ensemble for a plant with an illustartive example for a bioreactor. Starting from a functional model a process plant may be conceptually designed and qualitative operating models may be developed to cover the different...

A new time-series methodology for estimating relationships between elderly frailty, remaining life expectancy, and ambient air quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

2012-01-01

Many publications estimate short-term air pollution-mortality risks, but few estimate the associated changes in life-expectancies. We present a new methodology for analyzing time series of health effects, in which prior frailty is assumed to precede short-term elderly nontraumatic mortality. The model is based on a subpopulation of frail individuals whose entries and exits (deaths) are functions of daily and lagged environmental conditions: ambient temperature/season, airborne particles, and ozone. This frail susceptible population is unknown; its fluctuations cannot be observed but are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods with the Kalman filter. We used an existing 14-y set of daily data to illustrate the model and then tested the assumption of prior frailty with a new generalized model that estimates the portion of the daily death count allocated to nonfrail individuals. In this demonstration dataset, new entries into the high-risk pool are associated with lower ambient temperatures and higher concentrations of particulate matter and ozone. Accounting for these effects on antecedent frailty reduces this at-risk population, yielding frail life expectancies of 5-7 days. Associations between environmental factors and entries to the at-risk pool are about twice as strong as for mortality. Nonfrail elderly deaths are seen to make only small contributions. This new model predicts a small short-lived frail population-at-risk that is stable over a wide range of environmental conditions. The predicted effects of pollution on new entries and deaths are robust and consistent with conventional morbidity/mortality times-series studies. We recommend model verification using other suitable datasets.

Estimation of Tri-Axial Walking Ground Reaction Forces of Left and Right Foot from Total Forces in Real-Life Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erfan Shahabpoor

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of natural human gait in real-life environments is essential in many applications including disease monitoring, rehabilitation, and professional sports. Wearable inertial measurement units are successfully used to measure body kinematics in real-life environments and to estimate total walking ground reaction forces GRF(t using equations of motion. However, for inverse dynamics and clinical gait analysis, the GRF(t of each foot is required separately. Using an experimental dataset of 1243 tri-axial separate-foot GRF(t time histories measured by the authors across eight years, this study proposes the ‘Twin Polynomial Method’ (TPM to estimate the tri-axial left and right foot GRF(t signals from the total GRF(t signals. For each gait cycle, TPM fits polynomials of degree five, eight, and nine to the known single-support part of the left and right foot vertical, anterior-posterior, and medial-lateral GRF(t signals, respectively, to extrapolate the unknown double-support parts of the corresponding GRF(t signals. Validation of the proposed method both with force plate measurements (gold standard in the laboratory, and in real-life environment showed a peak-to-peak normalized root mean square error of less than 2.5%, 6.5% and 7.5% for the estimated GRF(t signals in the vertical, anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions, respectively. These values show considerable improvement compared with the currently available GRF(t decomposition methods in the literature.

A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jonkman, S.N.; Lentz, A.; Vrijling, J.K.

2010-01-01

In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on 'small probability-large consequences' events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.

Cost drivers for the assessment of nuclear power plant life extension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-09-01

In the period of the nineteen-sixties to eighties, nuclear power had rapidly expanded in many countries of the world. The nuclear power plants built in this period, will reach the end of their planned life in the near future. Statistics drawn from IAEA's Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) indicate that, by the end of 2001, there were 175 nuclear power units (NPPs) with about 122 GWe of net electrical capacity, having 21 to 45 years of operation. This represents about 34% of the total installed nuclear capacity in the world. Since these plants were initially designed for 30-40 years of operation, utilities operating such NPPs will now have to consider whether they will shutdown, decommission, and replace the plants reaching the end of their planned life, or refurbish the plants and extend their original design life. This decision is quite complex, involving a number of political, technical and economic issues. Finally, the utilities involved should manage their assets in a manner that is as close as practicable to the best possible economic optimum scenario. Well before the end of the plant life, NPP operators must evaluate the technical and economic feasibility for PLEX options, seek and obtain regulatory approvals, and implement PLEX schemes that are justified. Often they also have to substantiate the planned life extension, including the economic viability to the relevant governmental bodies, as well as to assure the general public acceptance. Economic feasibility analysis requires cost data that are not readily available. A recent IAEA review of published information on costs of PLEX revealed the scarcity of published information, while the estimated costs of NPP decommissioning are widely available. This is due in part to the reluctance by NPP operators to divulge the cost data that are considered commercial/confidential, as more plant operators are being privatised, and in part to the absence of a common framework and methodology to account for the

Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

2010-12-01

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studies of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.

Empirical investigation on using wind speed volatility to estimate the operation probability and power output of wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Heping; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Ten-minute wind speed and power generation data of an offshore wind turbine are used. ► An ARMA–GARCH-M model is built to simultaneously forecast wind speed mean and volatility. ► The operation probability and expected power output of the wind turbine are predicted. ► The integrated approach produces more accurate wind power forecasting than other conventional methods. - Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a quantitative methodology that performs the interval estimation of wind speed, calculates the operation probability of wind turbine, and forecasts the wind power output. The technological advantage of this methodology stems from the empowered capability of mean and volatility forecasting of wind speed. Based on the real wind speed and corresponding wind power output data from an offshore wind turbine, this methodology is applied to build an ARMA–GARCH-M model for wind speed forecasting, and then to compute the operation probability and the expected power output of the wind turbine. The results show that the developed methodology is effective, the obtained interval estimation of wind speed is reliable, and the forecasted operation probability and expected wind power output of the wind turbine are accurate

Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 for Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leonard J. Bond; Pradeep Ramuhalli; Magdy S. Tawfik; Nancy J. Lybeck

2011-06-01

Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems: there is growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to and prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

Life Cycle Energy Analysis of Reclaimed Water Reuse Projects in Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Yupeng; Guo, Erhui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Chang, Andrew C; Qiao, Qi; Kang, Peng

2018-01-01

  To illustrate the benefits of water reuse project, the process-based life cycle analysis (LCA) could be combined with input-output LCA to evaluate the water reuse project. Energy is the only evaluation parameter used in this study. Life cycle assessment of all energy inputs (LCEA) is completed mainly by the life cycle inventory (LCI), taking into account the full life cycle including the construction, the operation, and the demolition phase of the project. Assessment of benefit from water reuse during the life cycle should focus on wastewater discharge reduction and water-saving benefits. The results of LCEA of Beijing water reuse project built in 2014 in a comprehensive way shows that the benefits obtained from the reclaimed water reuse far exceed the life cycle energy consumption. In this paper, the authors apply the LCEA model to estimate the benefits of reclaimed water reuse projects quantitatively.

The application of probabilistic fracture analysis to residual life evaluation of embrittled reactor vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickson, T.L.; Simonen, F.A.

1992-01-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is a major element of the comprehensive probabilistic methodology on which current NRC regulatory requirements for pressurized water reactor vessel integrity evaluation are based. Computer codes such as OCA-P and VISA-11 perform probabilistic fracture analyses to estimate the increase in vessel failure probability that occurs as the vessel material accumulates radiation damage over the operating life of the vessel. The results of such analyses, when compared with limits of acceptable failure probabilities, provide an estimation of the residual life of a vessel. Such codes can be applied to evaluate the potential benefits of plant-specific mitigating actions designed to reduce the probability of failure of a reactor vessel

The application of probabilistic fracture analysis to residual life evaluation of embrittled reactor vessels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickson, T.L.; Simonen, F.A.

1992-01-01

Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis is a major element of comprehensive probabilistic methodology on which current NRC regulatory requirements for pressurized water reactor vessel integrity evaluation are based. Computer codes such as OCA-P and VISA-II perform probabilistic fracture analyses to estimate the increase in vessel failure probability that occurs as the vessel material accumulates radiation damage over the operating life of the vessel. The results of such analyses, when compared with limits of acceptable failure probabilities, provide an estimation of the residual life of a vessel. Such codes can be applied to evaluate the potential benefits of plant-specific mitigating actions designed to reduce the probability of failure of a reactor vessel. 10 refs

INFORMATION ASSURANCE - INTELLIGENCE - INFORMATION SUPERIORITY RELATIONSHIP WITHIN NATO OPERATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe BOARU, Ioan-Mihai ILIEŞ

2011-01-01

Full Text Available There is a tight relationship between information assurance, the intelligence cycle and information superiority within NATO operations. The intelligence cycle has a discrete architecture and provides on-time and relevant intelligence products to the joint force commanders and to other authorized users in a specifi c joint area of operations. The intelligence cycle must follow the evolution of the operation. A permanent intelligence estimate will be performed during the military decision making process and operations execution. Information superiority is one of the most powerful intelligence cycle achievements. and decisively infuences the success of NATO joint operations. Information superiority must be preserved and enhanced through information assurance. Information assurance is an information operation that must be planned by the military in charge of operation security or by non-military experts, executed by all personnel during the entire intelligence cycle life time and employed during the planning and execution of NATO joint operations.

A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez-Garcia, G.; Hospido, A.; Bagley, D.M.; Moreira, M.T.; Feijoo, G.

2012-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin®, making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N 2 O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO 2 emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: ► A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. ► Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. ► N 2 O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. ► CO 2 emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

Estimation of Corrosion-Free Life for Concrete Containing Ground Granulated Blast-Furnace Slag under a Chloride-Bearing Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sung In Hong

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The rate of chloride transport by diffusion in concrete containing ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS was mathematically estimated to predict the corrosion-free service life of concrete structures exposed to seawater environment. As a factor to corrosiveness of steel embedment, replacement ratio of GGBS was selected, accounting for 25 and 50% to total binder. As a result, it was found that an increase in the GGBS content resulted in an increase in the chloride binding capacity, which would give rise to a lower chloride diffusion rate, thereby reducing the risk of chloride-induced corrosion. When it comes to the sensitivity of parameters to service life, the effective diffusivity showed a marginal influence on serviceability, irrespective of GGBS contents while surface chloride content and critical threshold concentration revealed more crucial factors to long term chloride diffusion. As the GGBS replacement increased, the variation in service life has become less influential with changing parameters. Substantially, GGBS concrete at high replacement ratio enhanced the service life due to a combination of dense pore structure and enhanced chloride binding capacity.

Using operational data to estimate the reliable yields of water-supply wells

Science.gov (United States)

Misstear, Bruce D. R.; Beeson, Sarah

The reliable yield of a water-supply well depends on many different factors, including the properties of the well and the aquifer; the capacities of the pumps, raw-water mains, and treatment works; the interference effects from other wells; and the constraints imposed by ion licences, water quality, and environmental issues. A relatively simple methodology for estimating reliable yields has been developed that takes into account all of these factors. The methodology is based mainly on an analysis of water-level and source-output data, where such data are available. Good operational data are especially important when dealing with wells in shallow, unconfined, fissure-flow aquifers, where actual well performance may vary considerably from that predicted using a more analytical approach. Key issues in the yield-assessment process are the identification of a deepest advisable pumping water level, and the collection of the appropriate well, aquifer, and operational data. Although developed for water-supply operators in the United Kingdom, this approach to estimating the reliable yields of water-supply wells using operational data should be applicable to a wide range of hydrogeological conditions elsewhere. Résumé La productivité d'un puits capté pour l'adduction d'eau potable dépend de différents facteurs, parmi lesquels les propriétés du puits et de l'aquifère, la puissance des pompes, le traitement des eaux brutes, les effets d'interférences avec d'autres puits et les contraintes imposées par les autorisations d'exploitation, par la qualité des eaux et par les conditions environnementales. Une méthodologie relativement simple d'estimation de la productivité qui prenne en compte tous ces facteurs a été mise au point. Cette méthodologie est basée surtout sur une analyse des données concernant le niveau piézométrique et le débit de prélèvement, quand ces données sont disponibles. De bonnes données opérationnelles sont particuli

Estimating the operator's performance time of emergency procedural tasks based on a task complexity measure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Won Dae; Park, Jink Yun

2012-01-01

It is important to understand the amount of time required to execute an emergency procedural task in a high-stress situation for managing human performance under emergencies in a nuclear power plant. However, the time to execute an emergency procedural task is highly dependent upon expert judgment due to the lack of actual data. This paper proposes an analytical method to estimate the operator's performance time (OPT) of a procedural task, which is based on a measure of the task complexity (TACOM). The proposed method for estimating an OPT is an equation that uses the TACOM as a variable, and the OPT of a procedural task can be calculated if its relevant TACOM score is available. The validity of the proposed equation is demonstrated by comparing the estimated OPTs with the observed OPTs for emergency procedural tasks in a steam generator tube rupture scenario.

Safeguard assessment for life extension in nuclear power plants (NPPs) using a production function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, Tae-Ho; Lee, Un-Chul

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → The numerical value is constructed for the secure operation. → As the power increases, the NSEF increases. → Specific month could be indicated by the relative value of NSEF. → It is suggested for the better power in NPPs. → There is another possibility for the secure operation factors. - Abstract: Life extension is investigated as a safeguard assessment for the stability on the operation of the nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Cobb-Douglas function, one of the production functions, is modified for the nuclear safeguard in NPPs, which was developed for the life quality of the social and natural objects. Nuclear Safeguard Estimator Function (NSEF) is developed for the application in NPPs. The cases of NPPs are compared with each other in the aspect of the secure performance. The results are obtained by the standard productivity comparisons with the designed power operations. The range of secure life extension is between 1.008 and 5.353 in 2000 MW e and the range is between 0.302 and 0.994 in 600 MW e . So, the successfulness of the power operation increases about 5 times higher than that of the interested power in this study, which means that the safeguard assessment has been performed in the life extension of the NPPs. The technology assessment (TA) is suggested for the safe operation which is an advanced method comparing conventional probabilistic safety assessment (PSA).

Performance and operational economics estimates for a coal gasification combined-cycle cogeneration powerplant

Science.gov (United States)

Nainiger, J. J.; Burns, R. K.; Easley, A. J.

1982-01-01

A performance and operational economics analysis is presented for an integrated-gasifier, combined-cycle (IGCC) system to meet the steam and baseload electrical requirements. The effect of time variations in steam and electrial requirements is included. The amount and timing of electricity purchases from sales to the electric utility are determined. The resulting expenses for purchased electricity and revenues from electricity sales are estimated by using an assumed utility rate structure model. Cogeneration results for a range of potential IGCC cogeneration system sizes are compared with the fuel consumption and costs of natural gas and electricity to meet requirements without cogeneration. The results indicate that an IGCC cogeneration system could save about 10 percent of the total fuel energy presently required to supply steam and electrical requirements without cogeneration. Also for the assumed future fuel and electricity prices, an annual operating cost savings of 21 percent to 26 percent could be achieved with such a cogeneration system. An analysis of the effects of electricity price, fuel price, and system availability indicates that the IGCC cogeneration system has a good potential for economical operation over a wide range in these assumptions.

Diagnosis of Heat Exchanger Tube Failure in Fossil Fuel Boilers Through Estimation of Steady State Operating Conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herszage, A.; Toren, M.

1998-01-01

Estimation of operating conditions for fossil fuel boiler heat exchangers is often required due to changes in working conditions, design modifications and especially for monitoring performance and failure diagnosis. Regular heat exchangers in fossil fuel boilers are composed of tube banks through which water or steam flow, while hot combustion (flue) gases flow outside the tubes. This work presents a top-down approach to operating conditions estimation based on field measurements. An example for a 350 MW unit superheater is thoroughly discussed. Integral calculations based on measurements for all unit heat exchangers (reheaters, superheaters) were performed first. Based on these calculations a scheme of integral conservation equations (lumped parameter) was then formulated at the single tube level. Steady state temperatures of superheater tube walls were obtained as a main output, and were compared to the maximum allowable operating temperatures of the tubes material. A combined lumped parameter - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics, FLUENT code) approach constitutes an efficient tool in certain cases. A brief report of such a case is given for another unit superheater. We conclude that steady state evaluations based on both integral and detailed simulations are a valuable monitoring and diagnosis tool for the power generation industry

Monitoring and evaluation of wire mesh forming life

Science.gov (United States)

Enemuoh, Emmanuel U.; Zhao, Ping; Kadlec, Alec

2018-03-01

Forming tables are used with stainless steel wire mesh conveyor belts to produce variety of products. The forming tables will typically run continuously for several days, with some hours of scheduled downtime for maintenance, cleaning and part replacement after several weeks of operation. The wire mesh conveyor belts show large variation in their remaining life due to associated variations in their nominal thicknesses. Currently the industry is dependent on seasoned operators to determine the replacement time for the wire mesh formers. The drawback of this approach is inconsistency in judgements made by different operators and lack of data knowledge that can be used to develop decision making system that will be more consistent with wire mesh life prediction and replacement time. In this study, diagnostic measurements about the health of wire mesh former is investigated and developed. The wire mesh quality characteristics considered are thermal measurement, tension property, gage thickness, and wire mesh wear. The results show that real time thermal sensor and wear measurements would provide suitable data for the estimation of wire mesh failure, therefore, can be used as a diagnostic parameter for developing structural health monitoring (SHM) system for stainless steel wire mesh formers.

Individual aircraft life monitoring: An engineering approach for fatigue damage evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui JIAO

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Individual aircraft life monitoring is required to ensure safety and economy of aircraft structure, and fatigue damage evaluation based on collected operational data of aircraft is an integral part of it. To improve the accuracy and facilitate the application, this paper proposes an engineering approach to evaluate fatigue damage and predict fatigue life for critical structures in fatigue monitoring. In this approach, traditional nominal stress method is applied to back calculate the S-N curve parameters of the realistic structure details based on full-scale fatigue test data. Then the S-N curve and Miner’s rule are adopted in damage estimation and fatigue life analysis for critical locations under individual load spectra. The relationship between relative small crack length and fatigue life can also be predicted with this approach. Specimens of 7B04-T74 aluminum alloy and TA15M titanium alloy are fatigue tested under two types of load spectra, and there is a good agreement between the experimental results and analysis results. Furthermore, the issue concerning scatter factor in individual aircraft damage estimation is also discussed. Keywords: Fatigue damage, Fatigue monitoring, Fatigue test, Scatter factor, S-N curve

The System Cost Model: A tool for life cycle cost and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, K.; Lundeen, A.; Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

In May of 1994, Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) in Idaho Falls, Idaho and subcontractors began development of the System Cost Model (SCM) application. The SCM estimates life cycle costs of the entire US Department of Energy (DOE) complex for designing; constructing; operating; and decommissioning treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities for mixed low-level, low-level, and transuranic waste. The SCM uses parametric cost functions to estimate life cycle costs for various treatment, storage, and disposal modules which reflect planned and existing waste management facilities at DOE installations. In addition, SCM can model new TSD facilities based on capacity needs over the program life cycle. The user can provide input data (default data is included in the SCM) including the volume and nature of waste to be managed, the time period over which the waste is to be managed, and the configuration of the waste management complex (i.e., where each installation's generated waste will be treated, stored, and disposed). Then the SCM uses parametric cost equations to estimate the costs of pre-operations (designing), construction, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning these waste management facilities. The SCM also provides transportation costs for DOE wastes. Transportation costs are provided for truck and rail and include transport of contact-handled, remote-handled, and alpha (transuranic) wastes. A complement to the SCM is the System Cost Model-Risk (SCM-R) model, which provides relative Environmental, Safety, and Health (ES and H) risk information. A relative ES and H risk basis has been developed and applied by LITCO at the INEL. The risk basis is now being automated in the SCM-R to facilitate rapid risk analysis of system alternatives. The added risk functionality will allow combined cost and risk evaluation of EM alternatives

Lagged life cycle structures for food products: Their role in global marketing, their determinants and some problems in their estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baadsgaard, Allan; Gede, Mads Peter; Grunert, Klaus G.

cycles for different product categories may be lagged (type II lag) because changes in economic and other factors will result in demands for different products. Identifying lagged life cycle structures major importance in global marketing of food products. The problems in arriving at such estimates...

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

2017-09-01

The incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. We conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved. The estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour. The ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned. Findings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Duration and predictors of emergency surgical operations - basis for medical management of mass casualty incidents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huber-Wagner S

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospitals have a critically important role in the management of mass causality incidents (MCI, yet there is little information to assist emergency planners. A significantly limiting factor of a hospital's capability to treat those affected is its surgical capacity. We therefore intended to provide data about the duration and predictors of life saving operations. Methods The data of 20,815 predominantly blunt trauma patients recorded in the Trauma Registry of the German-Trauma-Society was retrospectively analyzed to calculate the duration of life-saving operations as well as their predictors. Inclusion criteria were an ISS ≥ 16 and the performance of relevant ICPM-coded procedures within 6 h of admission. Results From 1,228 patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria 1,793 operations could be identified as life-saving operations. Acute injuries to the abdomen accounted for 54.1% followed by head injuries (26.3%, pelvic injuries (11.5%, thoracic injuries (5.0% and major amputations (3.1%. The mean cut to suture time was 130 min (IQR 65-165 min. Logistic regression revealed 8 variables associated with an emergency operation: AIS of abdomen ≥ 3 (OR 4,00, ISS ≥ 35 (OR 2,94, hemoglobin level ≤ 8 mg/dL (OR 1,40, pulse rate on hospital admission 120/min (OR 1,39, blood pressure on hospital admission Conclusions The mean operation time of 130 min calculated for emergency life-saving surgical operations provides a realistic guideline for the prospective treatment capacity which can be estimated and projected into an actual incident admission capacity. Knowledge of predictive factors for life-saving emergency operations helps to identify those patients that need most urgent operative treatment in case of blunt MCI.

Overview of plant life management for long term operation in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, K.S.; Vincze, P.; Bychkov, A.

2014-01-01

Many IAEA member states have given high priority to licensing their nuclear power plants to operate for terms longer than the time frame originally anticipated (generally 40 years). The task of managing plant ageing is assigned in most member states to an engineering specialty called 'plant life management' (PLiM) applying a systematic analysis methodology to System Structure Components (SSCs) ageing. In many countries, the safety performance of nuclear power plants is periodically assessed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) process. Regulatory review and acceptance of PSRs constitutes for these countries the licensing requirement for continued operation of the plant to the following PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and in other countries operating US designed plants, instead of PSR process, a license renewal application (LRA) process is followed, which requires certain prerequisites such as ageing management programs, particularly for passive irreplaceable SSCs. Active components are normally addressed via the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. A third group of member states have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both the PSR process and selected LRA specific requirements, such as time limited ageing analysis. The article ends with some IAEA recommendations for the implementation of national PLiM programs

The effects of body image impairment on the quality of life of non-operated Portuguese female IBD patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Trindade, Inês A; Ferreira, Cláudia; Pinto-Gouveia, José

2017-02-01

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) and their treatment are known to negatively impact on patients' body image, especially female patients. However, although there are broad evidences of body image impairment in female IBD patients, its negative impact on the quality of life (QoL) of non-operated women is not clearly and specifically studied. The aim of the current study was therefore to analyse, in a sample of non-operated female IBD patients, the factors that contribute to body image impairment and its impact on QoL. Ninety-six non-operated women (39.7 % with CD and 60.3 % with UC), aged between 18 and 40 years old, completed an online survey with validated self-report measures, which included the Body Image Scale and the WHO Brief Quality of Life Assessment Scale. Negative body image was correlated with lower psychological and physical QoL and increased corticosteroids use, associated medical complications, body mass index (BMI), and IBD symptomatology. Regression analyses revealed that BMI and IBD symptomatology significantly predicted body image impairment. Furthermore, results from path analyses indicated that BMI and IBD symptomatology's effect on psychological and physical QoL was mediated through the negative effects of body image impairment. This model explained 31 % of psychological QoL and 41 % of physical QoL. These findings suggest that non-operated female patients are subject to pervasive and harmful effects of body image impairment on psychological and physical functioning. Therefore, psychological interventions aiming to target body dissatisfaction should be implemented in the health care of IBD, independently of patients' operative status.

Probability of fracture and life extension estimate of the high-flux isotope reactor vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, S.J.

1998-01-01

The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) for fracture, often denoted by RT NDT for carbon steel. This transition temperature can be calibrated by the drop-weight test and, sometimes, by the Charpy impact test. The life extension for the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics that is incorporated with the effect of the DBTT change. The failure probability of the HFIR vessel is limited as the life of the vessel by the reactor core melt probability of 10 -4 . The operating safety of the reactor is ensured by periodic hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest). The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test is calculated and is used to determine the life of the vessel. Failure to perform hydrotest imposes the limit on the life of the vessel. The conventional method of fracture probability calculations such as that used by the NRC-sponsored PRAISE CODE and the FAVOR CODE developed in this Laboratory are based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Heavy computations are required. An alternative method of fracture probability calculation by direct probability integration is developed in this paper. The present approach offers simple and expedient ways to obtain numerical results without losing any generality. In this paper, numerical results on (1) the probability of vessel fracture, (2) the hydrotest time interval, and (3) the hydrotest pressure as a result of the DBTT increase are obtained

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Effect of unbalanced voltage on windings temperature, operational life and load carrying capacity of induction machine

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gnacinski, P. [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Ship Electrical Power Engineering, Morska Street 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

2008-04-15

This paper investigates the influence of the CVUF angle on the windings temperature rise and the derating factor of an induction machine supplied with unbalanced voltage. The effect of simultaneous voltage unbalance and harmonics on its operational life is analyzed as well. The results of calculations and experimental investigations are presented for two induction cage machines of rated power 3 and 5.5 kW. (author)

In-operation inspection technology development-4 ''development of degradation prediction technology for motor-operated valves''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kikuo, Takeshima; Yuichi, Higashikawa [Hitachi Engineering and Production Div., Nuclear Systems Div., Hitachi, Ltd., Ibaraki (Japan); Masahiro, Koike [Power and Industrial Systems R and D Lab., Hitachi, Ltd., (Japan); Kenji, Matsumoto [Tokyo Research and Development Center, Japan Power Engineering and Inspection Corp. (Japan); Eiji, O' shima [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan)

2001-07-01

A method for degradation predicting technology has been proposed for motor operated valves in nuclear power plants which is based on the concept of condition monitoring for maintenance. This method (degradation prediction technology) eliminates the unnecessary overhaul of valves and realizes high reliability and economy. The degradation mechanism was clarified by long time heating experiments of gasket and gland packing and the wear test for them and stem nut to research valve parts degradation by stress (pressure, temperature, etc) during plant operation. Effective electric power measurements for motor operated valves were confirmed to be useful discovering valve part failures. The motor operated valve degradation prediction system was developed on the basis of the experiment results and mechanism. The system is able to predict the degradation of valve parts (gasket/gland packing, stem, stem nut, etc) utilizing plant data (pressure, temperature, etc) and effective power of the motor. The life of valve parts can be estimated from the experimental results. (authors)

PSS32 Impact of dry eye on everyday life (Ideel) - Symptom bother: Estimating cut-off scores for dry eye severity groups

OpenAIRE

Acaster, S.; Verboven, Y.; Begley, C.; Chalmers, R.; Abetz, L.; Thompson, T.

2011-01-01

The aims of the study were to estimate score ranges associated with dry eye severity based on the Impact of Dry Eye on Everyday Life (IDEEL) Symptom Bother (SB) domain, and to evaluate the overall performance of the SB domain.

THE ESTIMATION OF HUMAN-OPERATOR CYBERNETIC ABILITIES DURING THE IMPACT OF DESTABILIZING FACTORS OF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergii T. Polishchuk

2009-04-01

Full Text Available  The method of estimation of human-operator cybernetics abilities during of the impacting of destabilizing factors of external environment is suggested. It was proved that up-to-date biomedical approach for periodical health examination of pilots in civil aviation isn’t guarantees theirs cybernetics abilities in cases of influence of destabilizing factors.

Incorporating operational experience and design changes in availability forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norman, D.

1988-01-01

Reliability or availability forecasts which are based solely on past operating experience will be precise if the sample is large enough, and unbiased if nothing in the future design, environment, operating region or anything else changes. Unfortunately, life is never like that. This paper considers the methodology and philosophy of modifying forecasts based on past experience to take account also of changes in design, construction methods, operating philosophy, environments, operator training and so on, between the plants which provided the operating experience and the plant for which the forecast is being made. This emphasises the importance of collecting, assessing, and learning from past data and of a thorough knowledge of future designs, and procurement, operation, and maintenance policies. The difference between targets and central estimates is also discussed. The paper concludes that improvements in future availability can be made by learning from past experience, but that certain conditions must be fulfilled in order to do so. (author)

Residual life estimation of electrical insulation system for rotating equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vashishtha, Y.D.; Gupta, A.K.; Bhattacharyya, A.K.; Verma, A.K.

1994-01-01

Residual life assessment gains significance towards the end of designed life for granting plant life extensions and resource planning for costly equipment replacement. A critical review of all the diagnostic techniques presently used to assess either health of insulation system or to infer qualitatively the remaining life for rotating machines is presented. However more emphasis is required on developing quantitative methods. This paper also formulates the experimental plan for progressively censored ageing tests, measurement of partial discharge parameters, micro-structural study for delamination and electrical tree growth and measurement of electrical breakdown strength. Partial discharge (PD) patterns, electrical tree growth and time to failure data shall be taken as training set for the neural network learning which can be useful to predict residual life with only one candidate parameter i.e. PD patterns. (author). 9 refs

A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez-Garcia, G., E-mail: gonzalo.rodriguez.garcia@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Hospido, A., E-mail: almudena.hospido@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Bagley, D.M., E-mail: bagley@uwyo.edu [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Wyoming, 82072 Laramie, WY (United States); Moreira, M.T., E-mail: maite.moreira@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Feijoo, G., E-mail: gumersindo.feijoo@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

2012-11-15

The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin Registered-Sign , making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N{sub 2}O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO{sub 2} emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer N{sub 2}O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

Multilevel survival analysis of health inequalities in life expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Merlo Juan

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The health status of individuals is determined by multiple factors operating at both micro and macro levels and the interactive effects of them. Measures of health inequalities should reflect such determinants explicitly through sources of levels and combining mean differences at group levels and the variation of individuals, for the benefits of decision making and intervention planning. Measures derived recently from marginal models such as beta-binomial and frailty survival, address this issue to some extent, but are limited in handling data with complex structures. Beta-binomial models were also limited in relation to measuring inequalities of life expectancy (LE directly. Methods We propose a multilevel survival model analysis that estimates life expectancy based on survival time with censored data. The model explicitly disentangles total health inequalities in terms of variance components of life expectancy compared to the source of variation at the level of individuals in households and parishes and so on, and estimates group differences of inequalities at the same time. Adjusted distributions of life expectancy by gender and by household socioeconomic level are calculated. Relative and absolute health inequality indices are derived based on model estimates. The model based analysis is illustrated on a large Swedish cohort of 22,680 men and 26,474 women aged 65–69 in 1970 and followed up for 30 years. Model based inequality measures are compared to the conventional calculations. Results Much variation of life expectancy is observed at individual and household levels. Contextual effects at Parish and Municipality level are negligible. Women have longer life expectancy than men and lower inequality. There is marked inequality by the level of household socioeconomic status measured by the median life expectancy in each socio-economic group and the variation in life expectancy within each group. Conclusion Multilevel

An Estimation of the Whole-of-Life Noise Exposure of Adolescent and Young Adult Australians with Hearing Impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Lyndal; Black, Deborah; Bundy, Anita; Williams, Warwick

2016-10-01

Since amplified music gained widespread popularity, there has been community concern that leisure-noise exposure may cause hearing loss in adolescents and young adults who would otherwise be free from hearing impairment. Repeated exposure to personal stereo players and music events (e.g., nightclubbing, rock concerts, and music festivals) are of particular concern. The same attention has not been paid to leisure-noise exposure risks for young people with hearing impairment (either present from birth or acquired before adulthood). This article reports on the analysis of a subset of data (leisure participation measures) collected during a large, two-phase study of the hearing health, attitudes, and behaviors of 11- to 35-yr-old Australians conducted by the National Acoustic Laboratories (n = 1,667 hearing threshold level datasets analyzed). The overall aim of the two-phase study was to determine whether a relationship between leisure-noise exposure and hearing loss exists. In the current study, the leisure activity profiles and accumulated ("whole-of-life") noise exposures of young people with (1) hearing impairment and (2) with normal hearing were compared. Cross-sectional cohort study. Hearing impaired (HI) group, n = 125; normal (nonimpaired) hearing (NH) group, n = 296, analyzed in two age-based subsets: adolescents (13- to 17-yr-olds) and young adults (18- to 24-yr-olds). Participant survey. The χ² test was used to identify systematic differences between the leisure profiles and exposure estimates of the HI and NH groups. Whole-of-life noise exposure was estimated by adapting techniques described in ISO 1999. For adolescents, leisure profiles were similar for the two groups and few individuals exceeded the stated risk criterion. For young adults, participation was significantly lower for the HI group for 7 out of 18 leisure activities surveyed. Activity diversity and whole-of-life exposure were also significantly lower for the HI group young adults. A

An online Vce measurement and temperature estimation method for high power IGBT module in normal PWM operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ghimire, Pramod; de Vega, Angel Ruiz; Beczkowski, Szymon

2014-01-01

An on-state collector-emitter voltage (Vce) measurement and thereby an estimation of average temperature in space for high power IGBT module is presented while power converter is in operation. The proposed measurement circuit is able to measure both high and low side IGBT and anti parallel diode...

Estimating of funding levels for decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sieving, K.W.

1985-01-01

In order to meet its public service obligations, an electric utility must attain the following objectives: Recognize future power requirements early, and take appropriate actions to satisfy them; Construct new generating, transmission and distribution facilities in a timely and economical manner; Operate its facilities safely, and maintain them without decreasing the quality and reliability of service. In the case of a nuclear electric generating station, the third objective includes the obligation to decommission the station following shutdown at the end of its useful life and to dispose of residual radioactivity in accordance with Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, as a part of the process of terminating the NRC license. In the case of an investor-owned electric utility, the third objective includes the additional duty to estimate the cost of decommissioning for ratemaking purposes, since the funds required for this future event must be collected over the life of the generating station from the consumers who enjoy the benefits of its output. This article deals with these issues

An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth

Science.gov (United States)

Barraza-Barraza, Diana; Tercero-Gómez, Víctor G.; Beruvides, Mario G.; Limón-Robles, Jorge

2017-01-01

A wide variety of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) techniques deal with the problem of predicting the time for an asset fault. Most statistical approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be available in several practical situations. To address this issue, practitioners might require the use of self-starting approaches that consider only the available knowledge about the current degradation process and the asset operating context to update the prognostic model. Some authors use Autoregressive (AR) models for this purpose that are adequate when the asset operating context is constant, however, if it is variable, the accuracy of the models can be affected. In this paper, three autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX) were constructed, and their capability to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of a process was evaluated following the case of the aluminum crack growth problem. An existing stochastic model of aluminum crack growth was implemented and used to assess RUL estimation performance of the proposed ARX models through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Point and interval estimations were made based only on individual history, behavior, operating conditions and failure thresholds. Both analytic and bootstrapping techniques were used in the estimation process. Finally, by including recursive parameter estimation and a forgetting factor, the ARX methodology adapts to changing operating conditions and maintain the focus on the current degradation level of an asset.

Projecting LED product life based on application

Science.gov (United States)

Narendran, Nadarajah; Liu, Yi-wei; Mou, Xi; Thotagamuwa, Dinusha R.; Eshwarage, Oshadhi V. Madihe

2016-09-01

LED products have started to displace traditional light sources in many lighting applications. One of the commonly claimed benefits for LED lighting products is their long useful lifetime in applications. Today there are many replacement lamp products using LEDs in the marketplace. Typically, lifetime claims of these replacement lamps are in the 25,000-hour range. According to current industry practice, the time for the LED light output to reach the 70% value is estimated according to IESNA LM-80 and TM-21 procedures and the resulting value is reported as the whole system life. LED products generally experience different thermal environments and switching (on-off cycling) patterns when used in applications. Current industry test methods often do not produce accurate lifetime estimates for LED systems because only one component of the system, namely the LED, is tested under a continuous-on burning condition without switching on and off, and because they estimate for only one failure type, lumen depreciation. The objective of the study presented in this manuscript was to develop a test method that could help predict LED system life in any application by testing the whole LED system, including on-off power cycling with sufficient dwell time, and considering both failure types, catastrophic and parametric. The study results showed for the LED A-lamps tested in this study, both failure types, catastrophic and parametric, exist. The on-off cycling encourages catastrophic failure, and maximum operating temperature influences the lumen depreciation rate and parametric failure time. It was also clear that LED system life is negatively affected by on-off switching, contrary to commonly held belief. In addition, the study results showed that most of the LED systems failed catastrophically much ahead of the LED light output reaching the 70% value. This emphasizes the fact that life testing of LED systems must consider catastrophic failure in addition to lumen depreciation, and

Thermal fatigue strength estimation of 2.25Cr-1Mo steel under creep-fatigue interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuwahara, Kazuo; Nitta, Akihito; Kitamura, Takayuki

1980-01-01

A 2-1/4Cr-1Mo steel is one of principal materials for high temperature equipments in nuclear and thermal power plants. The authors experimentally analyzed the high temperature fatigue strength and creep strength of a 2-1/4 Cr-1Mo steel main steam pipe which had been used in a thermal plant for operation up to 130,000 hours, and pointed out that the strain-range vs. life curves crossed each other due to the difference of temperature-strain phase in thermal fatigue. This suggests that it is difficult to estimate thermal fatigue life of steel materials having been subjected to different temperature-strain phase on the basis of isothermal low-cycle fatigue life at the upper limit temperature of thermal fatigue, and that it is urgently required to establish an appropriate method of evaluating thermal fatigue life. The authors attempted to prove that the strain range partitioning method used for the evaluation of thermal fatigue life in SUS 304 steels is applicable to this 2-1/4Cr-1Mo steel. Consequently, it was found that the thermal fatigue life could be estimated within a factor of 2.5 by the application of this method. (author)

Preventive maintenance and life time assessment with respect to cyclic operation; Foerebyggande underhaall och livslaengdsbedoemning med avseende paa cyklisk drift

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Storesund, Jan

2011-03-15

Procedures that may be used for the life time assessments and growth laws for failure mechanisms with respect to cyclic operation has been compiled. Experience and analyzes of the effects of cyclical operation of steam drums, steam boxes, steam accumulators and valves has been compiled. For the strain-induced corrosion cracking in steam drums a correlation between the voltage level and the crack growth rate has been developed.

Laser cost experience and estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shofner, F.M.; Hoglund, R.L.

1977-01-01

This report addresses the question of estimating the capital and operating costs for LIS (Laser Isotope Separation) lasers, which have performance requirements well beyond the state of mature art. This question is seen with different perspectives by political leaders, ERDA administrators, scientists, and engineers concerned with reducing LIS to economically successful commercial practice, on a timely basis. Accordingly, this report attempts to provide ''ballpark'' estimators for capital and operating costs and useful design and operating information for lasers based on mature technology, and their LIS analogs. It is written very basically and is intended to respond about equally to the perspectives of administrators, scientists, and engineers. Its major contributions are establishing the current, mature, industrialized laser track record (including capital and operating cost estimators, reliability, types of application, etc.) and, especially, evolution of generalized estimating procedures for capital and operating cost estimators for new laser design

Influence of accompanying immunocorrecting therapy on the quality of life of breast cancer patients at post-operative radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prokhach, N.E.

2013-01-01

To investigate the influence of accompanying immunotherapy on the parameters of the quality of life of the patients with breast cancer with various profiles of cytokines at post-operative radiation therapy. The study was performed on 30 breast cancer patients at stages of combination therapy

Explaining the Origin of Life is not Enough for a Definition of Life

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jagers Op Akkerhuis, G.A.J.M.

2011-01-01

The comments focus on a presumed circular reasoning in the operator hierarchy and the necessity of understanding life’s origin for defining life. Below it is shown that its layered structure prevents the operator hierarchy from circular definitions. It is argued that the origin of life is an

Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

1994-03-01

This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

Estimating pesticide emissions for life cycle assessment of agricultural products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Røpke, Inge

2004-01-01

As the first country in Europe Denmark almost 2 years ago established an official center for Life Cycle Assessments and life cycle approaches as an element of the national IPP (Integrated Product Policy). The Danish EPA lends financial support to this important initiative, the aim of which is to: 1....... promote the use of Life Cycle Assessment and other product-oriented environmental tools in companies, 2. support companies and other in using environmental assessment of products and services, 3. ensure that the effort in the LCA area is based on a solid and scientific basis, and 4. maintain the well...... evaluation finished in September 2004. Important learnings for all who are engaged in dissemination of life cycle thinking in industry will be presented....

EFO-LCI: A New Life Cycle Inventory Database of Forestry Operations in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Cardellini, Giuseppe; Valada, Tatiana; Cornillier, Claire; Vial, Estelle; Dragoi, Marian; Goudiaby, Venceslas; Mues, Volker; Lasserre, Bruno; Gruchala, Arkadiusz; Rørstad, Per Kristian; Neumann, Mathias; Svoboda, Miroslav; Sirgmets, Risto; Näsärö, Olli-Pekka; Mohren, Frits; Achten, Wouter M. J.; Vranken, Liesbet; Muys, Bart

2018-06-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common methodology to analyze environmental impacts of forestry systems. Although LCA has been widely applied to forestry since the 90s, the LCAs are still often based on generic Life Cycle Inventory (LCI). With the purpose of improving LCA practices in the forestry sector, we developed a European Life Cycle Inventory of Forestry Operations (EFO-LCI) and analyzed the available information to check if within the European forestry sector national differences really exist. We classified the European forests on the basis of "Forest Units" (combinations of tree species and silvicultural practices). For each Forest Unit, we constructed the LCI of their forest management practices on the basis of a questionnaire filled out by national silvicultural experts. We analyzed the data reported to evaluate how they vary over Europe and how they affect LCA results and made freely available the inventory data collected for future use. The study shows important variability in rotation length, type of regeneration, amount and assortments of wood products harvested, and machinery used due to the differences in management practices. The existing variability on these activities sensibly affect LCA results of forestry practices and raw wood production. Although it is practically unfeasible to collect site-specific data for all the LCAs involving forest-based products, the use of less generic LCI data of forestry practice is desirable to improve the reliability of the studies. With the release of EFO-LCI we made a step toward the construction of regionalized LCI for the European forestry sector.

An estimation of population doses from a nuclear power plant during normal operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nowicki, K.

1975-07-01

A model is presented for estimation of the potential submersion and inhalation radiation doses to people located within a distance of 1000 km from a nuclear power plant during normal operation. The model was used to calculate doses for people living 200-1000 km from hypothetical nuclear power facility sited near the geographical centre of Denmark. Two kinds of sources are considered for this situation: - unit release of 15 isotopes of noble gases and iodines, - effluent releases from two types of 1000 MWe Light Water Power Reactors: PWR and BWR. Parameter variations were made and analyzed in order to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms of the model. (author)

Development and quantitative effect estimation of an integrated decision support system to aid operator's cognitive activities for NPP advanced main control rooms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seung Jun

2007-02-01

As digital and computer technologies have grown, human-machine interfaces (HMIs) have evolved. In safety critical systems, especially in nuclear power plants (NPPs), HMIs are important for reducing operational costs, for reducing the number of necessary operators, and for reducing the probability of accident occurrence. Efforts have been made to improve main control room (MCR) interface design and to develop automation or support systems to ensure convenient operation and maintenance. In this paper, an integrated decision support system to aid the cognitive activities of operators is proposed for advanced MCRs in future NPPs. The proposed system supports not merely a particular task, but also the entire operation process based on a human cognitive process model. It supports the operator's entire cognitive process by integrating decision support systems that support each cognitive activity. In this paper, the operator's operation processes are analyzed based on a human cognitive process model and appropriate support systems that support each activity of the human cognitive process are suggested. Two decision support systems were developed in this paper. The first one is the fault diagnosis advisory system (FDAS) which detects faults and diagnoses them. The FDAS provides a list of possible faults and expected causes to operators. It was implemented using two kinds of neural networks for more reliable diagnosis results. The second system is the multifunctional operator support system for operation guidance, which includes the FDAS and the operation guidance system. The operation guidance system is to prevent operator's commission errors and omission errors. Furthermore, the effect of the proposed system was estimated because to evaluate decision support systems in order to validate their efficiency is as important as to design highly reliable decision support systems. The effect estimations were performed theoretically and experimentally. The Bayesian

Collaborative machining solution extends the operating life of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilmore, Geoff; Becker, Andrew; Vandenberg, James

2007-01-01

Examination of a CANDU 6 nuclear power plant's steam generators during a scheduled maintenance outage revealed that the manway ports, part of the ASME Section III, Class 1 pressure boundary, needed repair. The port's inner cover gasket was not seating properly. Integrity was at risk. It was determined that this operation would required a specialized machine to successfully repair the manway port. The solution included the modification of a standard portable boring machine with a custom mounting option to enlarge the counterbore in the primary head shell from a round shape to an obround shape (76 mm of shell thickness, 16 mm radially). The shape change was needed to accommodate the new obround cover and gasket seal design. Once the new major shape was machined, the repair was finished with a Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machine developed by the service team to achieve the necessary gasket face location and sizing. The final result met all of the plant's expectations and was completed well within the time allotted during the maintenance shut down. This success was due to the positive partnership and collaboration of the service team and the machine tool manufacture working together to successfully extend the operating life of the nuclear power plant. (author)

Your Lung Operation: After Your Operation

Medline Plus

Full Text Available ... Surgical Skills for Exposure in Trauma Advanced Trauma Life Support Advanced Trauma Operative Management Basic Endovascular Skills for Trauma Disaster Management and Emergency ...

Gender and ethnic health disparities among the elderly in rural Guangxi, China: estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tai Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Ethnic health inequalities for males and females among the elderly have not yet been verified in multicultural societies in developing countries. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of disparities in health expectancy among the elderly from different ethnic groups using quality-adjusted life expectancy. Design: A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted. A total of 6,511 rural elderly individuals aged ≥60 years were selected from eight different ethnic groups in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China and assessed for health-related quality of life (HRQoL. The HRQoL utility value was combined with life expectancy at age 60 years (LE60 data by using Sullivan's method to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy at age 60 years (QALE60 and loss in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs for each group. Results: Overall, LE60 and QALE60 for all ethnic groups were 20.9 and 18.0 years in men, respectively, and 24.2 and 20.3 years in women. The maximum gap in QALE60 between ethnic groups was 3.3 years in males and 4.6 years in females. The average loss in QALY was 2.9 years for men and 3.8 years for women. The correlation coefficient between LE60 and QALY lost was −0.53 in males and 0.12 in females. Conclusion: Women live longer than men, but they suffer more; men have a shorter life expectancy, but those who live longer are healthier. Attempts should be made to reduce suffering in the female elderly and improve longevity for men. Certain ethnic groups had low levels of QALE, needing special attention to improve their lifestyle and access to health care.

Operational Definitions of Sexual Orientation and Estimates of Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Derrick D.; Blosnich, John R.; Farmer, Grant W.; Adams, Brian J.

2014-01-01

Purpose Increasing attention to the health of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) populations comes with requisite circumspection about measuring sexual orientation in surveys. However, operationalizing these variables also requires considerable thought. This research sought to document the consequences of different operational definitions of sexual orientation by examining variation in health risk behaviors. Methods Using Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, we examined how operational definitions of sexual behavior and sexual identity influenced differences among three health behaviors known to disparately affect LGB populations: smoking, suicide risk, and methamphetamine use. Sexual behavior and sexual identity were also examined together to explore if they captured unique sources of variability in behavior. Results Estimates of health disparities changed as a result of using either sexual behavior or sexual identity. Youth who reported their sexual identity as “not sure” also had increased odds of health risk behavior. Disaggregating bisexual identity and behavior from same-sex identity and behavior frequently resulted in the attenuation or elimination of health disparities that would have otherwise been attributable to exclusively same-sex sexual minorities. Finally, sexual behavior and sexual identity explained unique and significant sources of variability in all three health behaviors. Conclusion Researchers using different operational definitions of sexual orientation could draw different conclusions, even when analyzing the same data, depending upon how they chose to represent sexual orientation in analyses. We discuss implications that these manipulations have on data interpretation and provide specific recommendations for best-practices when analyzing sexual orientation data collected from adolescent populations. PMID:25110718

Integrated manure utilization system life-cycle value assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Row, J.; Neabel, D. [Pembina Inst. for Appropriate Development, Drayton Valley, AB (Canada)

2005-10-15

A life-cycle assessment of the Alberta Research Council (ARC) and Highmark Renewables' development of an integrated manure utilization system (IMUS) were presented. The assessment focused on an evaluation of factors of primary importance to government, investors and the livestock industry. IMUS technology uses manure as a resource to produce electricity, heat, bio-based fertilizer and reusable water. Results of the assessment indicated that IMUS plants have the potential to be financially viable if a power purchase of $90 MWh on average can be purchased from a 30,000 head livestock operation. A capital cost of under $11 million is necessary, and an established biofertilizer price of $50 per tonne should be established. An IMUS plant was estimated to reduce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 70 to 80 per cent when compared to land spreading. Reductions are accomplished through displacing electricity from the provincial grid and reducing nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) emissions from spreading of manure The IMUS plants lessen environment impacts by reducing the extraction and consumption of non-renewable resources, and by displacing an estimated 11,700 GJ of coal and natural gas per 1000 head of cattle per year. In addition, various pathogens within manure are eliminated. The plants have the potential to eliminate the environmental hazards associated with the disposal of deadstock. The systems reduce manure odour, lessen truck traffic and are expected to contribute to rural economic diversification. Barriers to further implementation of IMUS were discussed, as well as emerging opportunities for IMUS developers. It was concluded that the initial assessments of the IMUS were positive. Further investigation is needed to determine actual life-cycle performance of the operations. 18 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs.

Investigating the implications of a new-build hybrid power system for Roll-on/Roll-off cargo ships from a sustainability perspective – A life cycle assessment case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ling-Chin, Janie; Roskilly, Anthony P.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Resources, emissions and impact from manufacture to end of life were estimated. • Operating diesel gensets and disposing metallic scrap were significant processes. • Correlations between fuel consumption and impact categories were identified. • The influence of the end of life scenarios on ecotoxicity potential was studied. • Environmental benefits of the hybrid system were compared and verified. - Abstract: Marine transport has been essential for international trade. Concern for its environmental impact was growing among regulators, classification societies, ship operators, ship owners, and other stakeholders. By applying life cycle assessment, this article aimed to assess the impact of a new-build hybrid system (i.e. an electric power system which incorporated lithium ion batteries, photovoltaic systems and cold-ironing) designed for Roll-on/Roll-off cargo ships. The study was carried out based on a bottom-up integrated system approach using the optimised operational profile and background information for manufacturing processes, mass breakdown and end of life management plans. Resources such as metallic and non-metallic materials and energy required for manufacture, operation, maintenance, dismantling and scrap handling were estimated. During operation, 1.76 × 10 8 kg of marine diesel oil was burned, releasing carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, particulate matter, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide which ranged 5–8 orders of magnitude. The operation of diesel gensets was the primary cause of impact categories that were relevant to particulate matter or respiratory inorganic health issues, photochemical ozone creation, eutrophication, acidification, global warming and human toxicity. Disposing metallic scrap was accountable for the most significant impact category, ecotoxicity potential. The environmental benefits of the hybrid power system in most impact categories were verified in comparison with a conventional power

Machine Learning Applications in Estimating Transformer Loss of Life

OpenAIRE

Majzoobi, Alireza; Mahoor, Mohsen; Khodaei, Amin

2017-01-01

Transformer life assessment and failure diagnostics have always been important problems for electric utility companies. Ambient temperature and load profile are the main factors which affect aging of the transformer insulation, and consequently, the transformer lifetime. The IEEE Std. C57.911995 provides a model for calculating the transformer loss of life based on ambient temperature and transformer's loading. In this paper, this standard is used to develop a data-driven static model for hou...

Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kyong Ju; Yun, Won Gun; Cho, Namho; Ha, Jikwang

2017-01-01

The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kyong Ju, E-mail: kjkim@cau.ac.kr; Yun, Won Gun, E-mail: ogun78@naver.com; Cho, Namho, E-mail: nhc51@cau.ac.kr; Ha, Jikwang, E-mail: wlrhkd29@gmail.com

2017-05-15

The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

Probability estimation of potential harm to human health and life caused by a hypothetical nuclear accident at the nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soloviov, Vladyslav; Pysmenniy, Yevgen

2015-01-01

This paper describes some general methodological aspects of the assessment of the damage to human life and health caused by a hypothetical nuclear accident at the nuclear power plant (NPP). Probability estimation of death (due to cancer and non-cancer effects of radiation injury), disability and incapacity of individuals were made by taking into account the regulations of Ukraine. According to the assessment, the probability of death due to cancer and non-cancer effects of radiation damage to individuals who received radiation dose of 1 Sv is equal to 0.09. Probability of disability of 1, 2 or 3 group regardless of the radiation dose is 0.009, 0.0054, 0.027, respectively. Probability of temporary disability of the individual who received dose equal to 33 mSv (the level of potential exposure in a hypothetical nuclear accident at the NPP) is equal 0.16. This probability estimation of potential harm to human health and life caused by a hypothetical nuclear accident can be used for NPP in different countries using requirements of regulations in these countries. And also to estimate the amount of insurance payments due to the nuclear damage in the event of a nuclear accident at the NPP or other nuclear industry enterprise. (author)

Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

2017-10-01

For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.

ESTIMATION OF MULTI-MODAL ANALGESIA ADEQUACY IN THE PERIOPERATIVE PERIOD AT LONG-TERMED TRAUMATIZING ABDOMINAL OPERATIVE INTERVENTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Kh. Sharipova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available PURPOSE OF THE STUDY. Improvement of perioperative multimodal analgesia at long­termed traumatizing abdominal interventions with estimation of its effectiveness.MATERIALS AND METHODS. Eighty six patients have been examined and divided into 3 groups depending on anesthesia and postoperative pain relief methods.RESULTS. The effectiveness of perioperative multi­modal analgesia using methods affecting the whole pathogenesis of pain has been revealed. Minimal stress of central and peripheral hemodynamics parameters, less evident pain syndrome in the post­operative period, economic effect shown up by the decrease of the use of narcotic analgesics both in intra­ and post­operative period have been observed.CONCLUSION. Algorithm of perioperative multi­modal analgesia at long­termed and traumatizing abdominal operative interventions has been developed. 

7 CFR 1435.301 - Annual estimates and quarterly re-estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Flexible Marketing..., estimates, and re-estimates in this subpart will use available USDA statistics and estimates of production, consumption, and stocks, taking into account, where appropriate, data supplied in reports submitted pursuant...

Thermal load non-uniformity estimation for superheater tube bundle damage evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naď Martin

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Industrial boiler damage is a common phenomenon encountered in boiler operation which usually lasts several decades. Since boiler shutdown may be required because of localized failures, it is crucial to predict the most vulnerable parts. If damage occurs, it is necessary to perform root cause analysis and devise corrective measures (repairs, design modifications, etc.. Boiler tube bundles, such as those in superheaters, preheaters and reheaters, are the most exposed and often the most damaged boiler parts. Both short-term and long-term overheating are common causes of tube failures. In these cases, the design temperatures are exceeded, which often results in decrease of remaining creep life. Advanced models for damage evaluation require temperature history, which is available only in rare cases when it has been measured and recorded for the whole service life. However, in most cases it is necessary to estimate the temperature history from available operation history data (inlet and outlet pressures and temperatures etc.. The task may be very challenging because of the combination of complex flow behaviour in the flue gas domain and heat transfer phenomena. This paper focuses on estimating thermal load non-uniformity on superheater tubes via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD simulation of flue gas flow including heat transfer within the domain consisting of a furnace and a part of the first stage of the boiler.

Matrix elements of four-quark operators relevant to life time difference ΔΓBs from QCD sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, C.S.; Zhang Ailin; Zhu, S.L.

2001-01-01

We extract the matrix elements of four-quark operators O L,S relevant to the B s and anti B s life time difference from QCD sum rules. We find that the vacuum saturation approximation works reasonably well, i.e., within 10%. We discuss the implications of our results and compare them with a recent lattice QCD determination. (orig.)

PWR life time: the EDF project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, R.; Reynes, L.; Mercier, J.P.

1987-01-01

Operating a very large number of standardized PWR units which supply today 70% of French power generation, Electricite de France is highly interested in getting the best estimate of the safe and economical life of these plants. An extensive program of work has been undertaken in this respect. The studies have first to go through all available data on aging process, survey and maintenance of a limited number of major components. This review will lead to recommendation of complementary work in these fields. The first conclusions are that these units are able to perform a long service time, under provision of careful survey and maintenance [fr

Use of plant operating history to define transient loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwivedy, K.K.

1996-01-01

Fatigue and crack growth analyses of components subjected to transient loads have been under continuous development during the recent past to include effects of environment on the components. The accuracy of the evaluation method on the predicted reliability of the components in the operating environment has become a focus of attention. Methods have integrated available material/component test data to improve evaluation techniques. However, in the area of definition of thermal transient loads the analyst still has to remain conservative, because no realistic guidelines have been developed to define thermal transients and their sequences. Fatigue re-evaluations of components are becoming increasingly necessary in operating plants as they age due to two reasons: (1) Components show age related degradation and cannot be repaired/replaced due to economic/logistic reasons. (2) Components experience transient conditions which were not considered in the original design. In either case, the evaluation of remaining life of components involves definition of transients and their sequence from the time the component was put in service until the end of life. As a common practice, initial plant design transients are used in a conservative definition of sequences to obtain results unrealistic for the situation, which sometimes leads to inaccurate estimate of the remaining life of components. The objective of this paper is to use plant operating history and plant monitoring data to provide procedures and techniques to define realistic transients for evaluation

A Modified Model to Estimate Building Rental Multipiers Accounting for Advalorem Operating Expenses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smolyak S.A.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available To develop ideas on building element valuation contained in the first article on the subject published in REMV, we propose an elaboration of the approach accounting for ad valorem expenses incidental to property management, such as land taxes, income/capital gains tax, and insurance premium costs; all such costs, being of an ad valorem nature in the first instance, cause circularity in the logic of the model, which, however, is not intractable under the proposed approach. The resulting formulas for carrying out practical estimation of building rental multipliers and, in consequence, of building values, turn out to be somewhat modified, and we demonstrate the sensitivity of the developed approach to the impact of these ad valorem factors. On the other hand, it is demonstrated that (accounting for building depreciation charges, which should seemingly be included among the considered ad valorem factors, cancel out and do not have any impact on the resulting estimates. However, treating the depreciation of buildings in quantifiable economic terms as a reduction in derivable operating benefits over time (instead of mere physical indications, such as age, we also demonstrate that the approach has implications for estimating the economic service lives of buildings and can be practical when used in conjunction with the market-related approach to valuation – from which the requisite model inputs can be extracted as shown in the final part of the paper.

Heritability Estimates of Endophenotypes of Long and Health Life: The Long Life Family Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Matteini, Amy M; Fallin, M Daniele; Kammerer, Candace M

2010-01-01

survival were identified and heritability estimates were calculated. Principal components (PCs) analysis was carried out using 28 physiologic measurements from five trait domains (cardiovascular, cognition, physical function, pulmonary, and metabolic). RESULTS: The five most dominant PCs accounted for 50......% of underlying trait variance. The first PC (PC1), which consisted primarily of poor pulmonary and physical function, represented 14.3% of the total variance and had an estimated heritability of 39%. PC2 consisted of measures of good metabolic and cardiovascular function with an estimated heritability of 27%. PC...

The estimation of the control rods absorber burn-up during the VVER-1000 operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolshagin, Sergey N.; Gorodkov, Sergey S.; Sukhino-Khomenko, Evgeniya A. [National Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

2013-09-15

The isotopic composition of the control rods absorber changes under the neutron flux influence, so the control rods efficiency can decrease. In the VVER-1000 control rods boron carbide and dysprosium titanate are used as absorbing materials. In boric part the efficiency decreases due to the {sup 10}B isotope burn-up. Dysprosium isotopes turn into other absorbing isotopes, so the absorbing properties of dysprosium part decrease to a lesser degree. Also the control rod's shells may be deformed as a consequence of boron carbide radiation swelling. This fact should be considered in substantiation of control rods durability. For the estimation of the control rods absorber burn-up two models are developed: VVER-1000 3-D fuel assembly with control rods partially immersed (imitation of the control rods operation in the working group) and VVER-1000 3-D fuel assembly with control rods, located at the upper limit switch (imitation of the control rods operation in groups of the emergency shutdown system). (orig.)

Life shocks and crime: a test of the "turning point" hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Corman, Hope; Noonan, Kelly; Reichman, Nancy E; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira

2011-08-01

Other researchers have posited that important events in men's lives-such as employment, marriage, and parenthood-strengthen their social ties and lead them to refrain from crime. A challenge in empirically testing this hypothesis has been the issue of self-selection into life transitions. This study contributes to this literature by estimating the effects of an exogenous life shock on crime. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, augmented with information from hospital medical records, to estimate the effects of the birth of a child with a severe health problem on the likelihood that the infant's father engages in illegal activities. We conduct a number of auxiliary analyses to examine exogeneity assumptions. We find that having an infant born with a severe health condition increases the likelihood that the father is convicted of a crime in the three-year period following the birth of the child, and at least part of the effect appears to operate through work and changes in parental relationships. These results provide evidence that life events can cause crime and, as such, support the "turning point" hypothesis.

Specific aspects for Cernavoda - Unit 1 NPP life assurance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rucareanu, R.

2002-01-01

systems/components; availability criteria - components and structures whose failure can cause a shut down or a reduction of power of the plant. The critical components and structures are of two categories: long-life passive components - Calandria vessel, Calandria internals, fuel channels, steam generators, reactor cooling pipes, pressurizer, containment building, concrete and steel structures, pressure vessels, heat exchangers, cables; short life active components - reactivity mechanisms, turbine, generator, diesel generator, pumps, valves, motors, air compressors, fans, instrumentation and control systems, electrical systems. For these components and structures, the potential degradation mechanisms must be identified and a safety margin defined. The next step is to estimate the actual ageing of these structures and components. This can be done by reviewing the design and the history of fabrication, installation, operation and maintenance. Good records and a database of operating conditions are essential. Periodic inspections (such as in-service, containment components, etc) results give also important information for evaluating the ageing degree. Main Activities ageing studies for Cernavoda NPP - Unit 1 began in 1994. They referred to the improvement of knowledge about ageing mechanisms, the selection of critical components, data collection and data processing. Also a special programme for Environmental Qualification up-dating has been developed by the owner of the plant. The installation of a multi-channel Data Acquisition System at Cernavoda NPP - Unit 1 is the scope of an ongoing IAEA Programme (ROM 04/027). The first steps of a Plant Life Management Programme started this year. The main proposed goals of the PLIM programme are: to review the existing records regarding the history of the critical components and structures (design, fabrication, installation, preservation, operation conditions, maintenance) in order to establish a reference database; to estimate the

Dose estimative in operators during petroleum wells logging with nuclear wireless probes through computer modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Rocha, Paula L.F.

2011-01-01

This paper evaluates the absorbed dose and the effective dose on operators during the petroleum well logging with nuclear wireless that uses gamma radiation sources. To obtain the data, a typical scenery of a logging procedure will be simulated with MCNPX Monte Carlo code. The simulated logging probe was the Density Gamma Probe - TRISOND produced by Robertson Geolloging. The absorbed dose values were estimated through the anthropomorphic simulator in male voxel MAX. The effective dose values were obtained using the ICRP 103

Training and certification program of the operating staff for a 90-day test of a regenerative life support system

Science.gov (United States)

1972-01-01

Prior to beginning a 90-day test of a regenerative life support system, a need was identified for a training and certification program to qualify an operating staff for conducting the test. The staff was responsible for operating and maintaining the test facility, monitoring and ensuring crew safety, and implementing procedures to ensure effective mission performance with good data collection and analysis. The training program was designed to ensure that each operating staff member was capable of performing his assigned function and was sufficiently cross-trained to serve at certain other positions on a contingency basis. Complicating the training program were budget and schedule limitations, and the high level of sophistication of test systems.

Effects of a pre-operative home-based inspiratory muscle training programme on perceived health-related quality of life in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Valkenet, K; Trappenburg, J C A; Hulzebos, E H; van Meeteren, N L U; Backx, F J G

2017-09-01

Pre-operative inspiratory muscle training has been shown to decrease the incidence of postoperative pneumonia and length of hospital stay in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). This study investigated if this decrease acted as a mediator on the time course of quality of life. Complementary analyses of a published randomised controlled trial. The initial trial included patients awaiting CABG surgery at a Dutch university hospital. The secondary analyses used data from the initial trial for patients who had completed at least one quality-of-life questionnaire. Participants were allocated at random to the intervention group or the usual care group. The intervention group followed a home-based pre-operative inspiratory muscle training programme. Quality of life was measured at five time points. Between-group differences in quality-of-life scores were analysed using mixed linear modelling. The secondary analyses used data for 235 patients. In line with the initial trial, pneumonia and length of hospital stay were decreased significantly in the intervention group. The time courses for all patients showed significant improvements in quality of life after surgery compared with baseline. No significant differences in quality of life were observed over time between the two groups. Despite decreased incidence of pneumonia and length of hospital stay in the intervention group, this study did not find any improvements in quality of life due to the pre-operative home-based inspiratory muscle training programme. Clinical trial registration number ISRCTN17691887. Copyright © 2016 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Cycle Life Prediction with Novel Indirect Health Indicator Extraction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haitao Liao

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL estimation for lithium-ion batteries play an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS. The capacity is often used as the fade indicator for estimating the remaining cycle life of a lithium-ion battery. For spacecraft requiring high reliability and long lifetime, in-orbit RUL estimation and reliability verification on ground should be carefully addressed. However, it is quite challenging to monitor and estimate the capacity of a lithium-ion battery on-line in satellite applications. In this work, a novel health indicator (HI is extracted from the operating parameters of a lithium-ion battery to quantify battery degradation. Moreover, the Grey Correlation Analysis (GCA is utilized to evaluate the similarities between the extracted HI and the battery’s capacity. The result illustrates the effectiveness of using this new HI for fading indication. Furthermore, we propose an optimized ensemble monotonic echo state networks (En_MONESN algorithm, in which the monotonic constraint is introduced to improve the adaptivity of degradation trend estimation, and ensemble learning is integrated to achieve high stability and precision of RUL prediction. Experiments with actual testing data show the efficiency of our proposed method in RUL estimation and degradation modeling for the satellite lithium-ion battery application.

Satellite lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation with an iterative updated RVM fused with the KF algorithm

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yuchen SONG; Datong LIU; Yandong HOU; Jinxiang YU; Yu PENG

2018-01-01

Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery's RUL due to its sparse fea-ture and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery's RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better per-formance for RUL estimation.

Satellite lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation with an iterative updated RVM fused with the KF algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuchen SONG

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life (RUL estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine (RVM is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery’s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery’s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.

Piezoelectric multilayer actuator life test.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherrit, Stewart; Bao, Xiaoqi; Jones, Christopher M; Aldrich, Jack B; Blodget, Chad J; Moore, James D; Carson, John W; Goullioud, Renaud

2011-04-01

Potential NASA optical missions such as the Space Interferometer Mission require actuators for precision positioning to accuracies of the order of nanometers. Commercially available multilayer piezoelectric stack actuators are being considered for driving these precision mirror positioning mechanisms. These mechanisms have potential mission operational requirements that exceed 5 years for one mission life. To test the feasibility of using these commercial actuators for these applications and to determine their reliability and the redundancy requirements, a life test study was undertaken. The nominal actuator requirements for the most critical actuators on the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) in terms of number of cycles was estimated from the Modulation Optics Mechanism (MOM) and Pathlength control Optics Mechanism (POM) and these requirements were used to define the study. At a nominal drive frequency of 250 Hz, one mission life is calculated to be 40 billion cycles. In this study, a set of commercial PZT stacks configured in a potential flight actuator configuration (pre-stressed to 18 MPa and bonded in flexures) were tested for up to 100 billion cycles. Each test flexure allowed for two sets of primary and redundant stacks to be mechanically connected in series. The tests were controlled using an automated software control and data acquisition system that set up the test parameters and monitored the waveform of the stack electrical current and voltage. The samples were driven between 0 and 20 V at 2000 Hz to accelerate the life test and mimic the voltage amplitude that is expected to be applied to the stacks during operation. During the life test, 10 primary stacks were driven and 10 redundant stacks, mechanically in series with the driven stacks, were open-circuited. The stroke determined from a strain gauge, the temperature and humidity in the chamber, and the temperature of each individual stack were recorded. Other properties of the stacks, including the

Implementation of National Space Policy on US Air Force End of Life Operations and Orbital Debris Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

Space Development and Test Directorate, Kirtland AFB, NM, 87117 Recent changes to US space policy regarding the execution of satellite End of Life ( EOL ...procedures have been driven by the rising significance of the orbital debris problem in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Therefore current EOL plans are...considerations for writing operational EOL plans, with special applicability to military missions and focus on LEO satellites that are unable to relocate

The need for operating guidelines and a decision making framework applicable to the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life

Science.gov (United States)

Race, Margaret S.; Randolph, Richard O.

While formal principles have been adopted for the eventuality of detecting intelligent life in our galaxy (SETI Principles), no such guidelines exist for the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life within the solar system. Current scientifically based planetary protection policies for solar system exploration address how to undertake exploration, but do not provide clear guidance on what to do if and when life is detected. Considering that martian life could be detected under several different robotic and human exploration scenarios in the coming decades, it is appropriate to anticipate how detection of non-intelligent, microbial life could impact future exploration missions and activities, especially on Mars. This paper discusses a proposed set of interim guidelines based loosely on the SETI Principles and addresses issues extending from the time of discovery through future handling and treatment of extraterrestrial life on Mars or elsewhere. Based on an analysis of both scientific and ethical considerations, there is a clear need for developing operating protocols applicable at the time of discovery and a decision making framework that anticipates future missions and activities, both robotic and human. There is growing scientific confidence that the discovery of extraterrestrial life in some form is nearly inevitable. If and when life is discovered beyond Earth, non-scientific dimensions may strongly influence decisions about the nature and scope of future missions and activities. It is appropriate to encourage international discussion and consideration of the issues prior to an event of such historical significance.

Combined cycle power plants: A comparison between two different dynamic models to evaluate transient behaviour and residual life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benato, Alberto; Stoppato, Anna; Bracco, Stefano

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Two procedures aimed at simulating the dynamic behaviour of power plants are compared. • They both are aimed at predicting the residual life of plant devices. • A single pressure gas-steam combined plant has been modelled. • A good correspondence has been found despite the different approaches used. - Abstract: The deregulated energy market and the increasing quota of electrical capacity covered by non-predictable renewable sources require strongly irregular and discontinuous operation of thermoelectric plants to satisfy users demand and compensate the variability of renewable sources. As a consequence, due to thermo-mechanical fatigue, creep and corrosion, a lifetime reduction of the most critical components occurs. The availability of a procedure able to predict the residual life of plant devices is necessary to assist the management decisions about power plants’ operation and maintenance scheduling. The first step of this procedure is the capability of simulating the plant behaviour versus time by evaluating the trends of the main thermodynamic parameters that describe the plant operation during different transient periods. In this context, the main contribution of the present paper is to propose a complete procedure able to simulate the plant dynamic behaviour and estimate the residual life reduction of some components. Indeed, two different models, developed by two different research groups, of the same single pressure heat recovery steam generator unit are presented and utilized to characterize the dynamic behaviour of the above mentioned power plant. The main thermodynamic variables during different transient operation conditions are predicted and good correspondence between the two methods is obtained. It can be also noted that, when the geometry and size of the devices are considered, the thermal inertia related to heat exchangers tubes, pipes and other physical masses causes a delay in the system response. Moreover, a residual life

Estimation of doses received by operators in the 1958 RB reactor accident using the MCNP5 computer code simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pešić Milan P.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A numerical simulation of the radiological consequences of the RB reactor reactivity excursion accident, which occurred on October 15, 1958, and an estimation of the total doses received by the operators were run by the MCNP5 computer code. The simulation was carried out under the same assumptions as those used in the 1960 IAEA-organized experimental simulation of the accident: total fission energy of 80 MJ released in the accident and the frozen positions of the operators. The time interval of exposure to high doses received by the operators has been estimated. Data on the RB1/1958 reactor core relevant to the accident are given. A short summary of the accident scenario has been updated. A 3-D model of the reactor room and the RB reactor tank, with all the details of the core, created. For dose determination, 3-D simplified, homogenised, sexless and faceless phantoms, placed inside the reactor room, have been developed. The code was run for a number of neutron histories which have given a dose rate uncertainty of less than 2%. For the determination of radiation spectra escaping the reactor core and radiation interaction in the tissue of the phantoms, the MCNP5 code was run (in the KCODE option and “mode n p e”, with a 55-group neutron spectra, 35-group gamma ray spectra and a 10-group electron spectra. The doses were determined by using the conversion of flux density (obtained by the F4 tally in the phantoms to doses using factors taken from ICRP-74 and from the deposited energy of neutrons and gamma rays (obtained by the F6 tally in the phantoms’ tissue. A rough estimation of the time moment when the odour of ozone was sensed by the operators is estimated for the first time and given in Appendix A.1. Calculated total absorbed and equivalent doses are compared to the previously reported ones and an attempt to understand and explain the reasons for the obtained differences has been made. A Root Cause Analysis of the accident was done and

Unified approach for estimating the probabilistic design S-N curves of three commonly used fatigue stress-life models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Yongxiang; Wang Jinnuo; Gao Qing

2001-01-01

A unified approach, referred to as general maximum likelihood method, is presented for estimating probabilistic design S-N curves and their confidence bounds of the three commonly used fatigue stress-life models, namely three parameter, Langer and Basquin. The curves are described by a general form of mean and standard deviation S-N curves of the logarithm of fatigue life. Different from existent methods, i.e., the conventional method and the classical maximum likelihood method,present approach considers the statistical characteristics of whole test data. The parameters of the mean curve is firstly estimated by least square method and then, the parameters of the standard deviation curve is evaluated by mathematical programming method to be agreement with the maximum likelihood principle. Fit effects of the curves are assessed by fitted relation coefficient, total fitted standard error and the confidence bounds. Application to the virtual stress amplitude-crack initiation life data of a nuclear engineering material, Chinese 1Cr18Ni9Ti stainless steel pipe-weld metal, has indicated the validity of the approach to the S-N data where both S and N show the character of random variable. Practices to the two states of S-N data of Chinese 45 carbon steel notched specimens (k t = 2.0) have indicated the validity of present approach to the test results obtained respectively from group fatigue test and from maximum likelihood fatigue test. At the practices, it was revealed that in general the fit is best for the three-parameter model,slightly inferior for the Langer relation and poor for the Basquin equation. Relative to the existent methods, present approach has better fit. In addition, the possible non-conservative predictions of the existent methods, which are resulted from the influence of local statistical characteristics of the data, are also overcome by present approach

Reliability studies of high operating temperature MCT photoconductor detectors

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Xu, Jintong; Zhang, Yan; Li, Xiangyang

2010-10-01

This paper concerns HgCdTe (MCT) infrared photoconductor detectors with high operating temperature. The near room temperature operation of detectors have advantages of light weight, less cost and convenient usage. Their performances are modest and they suffer from reliable problems. These detectors face with stability of the package, chip bonding area and passivation layers. It's important to evaluate and improve the reliability of such detectors. Defective detectors were studied with SEM(Scanning electron microscope) and microscopy. Statistically significant differences were observed between the influence of operating temperature and the influence of humidity. It was also found that humility has statistically significant influence upon the stability of the chip bonding and passivation layers, and the amount of humility isn't strongly correlated to the damage on the surface. Considering about the commonly found failures modes in detectors, special test structures were designed to improve the reliability of detectors. An accelerated life test was also implemented to estimate the lifetime of the high operating temperature MCT photoconductor detectors.

Recovery after Orthognathic Surgery: Short-term Health-Related Quality of Life Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Blakey, George; Jaskolka, Michael

2008-01-01

Purpose Assess the patient-reported time to recovery for quality of life outcomes: post-surgery sequelae, discomfort/pain, oral function, and daily activities following orthognathic surgery Methods 170 patients (age 14 to 53) were enrolled in a prospective study prior to orthognathic surgery. Each patient was given a 20 item Health-Related Quality of Life instrument (OSPostop) to be completed each post-surgery day (PSD) for 90 days. The instrument was designed to assess patients’ perception of recovery for 4 domains: post-surgery sequelae; discomfort/pain; oral function; and daily activities. Discomfort/pain was recorded with a 7-point Likert-type scale; all other items were measured on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Results Post-surgery sequelae, except swelling, resolved within the first week after surgery for over 75% of the subjects. Discomfort/pain and medication usage persisted for two to three weeks after surgery for most subjects. Return to usual activities, except for recreational activities, which took substantially longer, mirrored the resolution of discomfort/pain. Problems with oral function took the longest to resolve, approximately 6 to 8 weeks for the majority of subjects. Conclusions Comprehensive daily postoperative patient quality of life data provides the orthognathic surgeon with estimated recovery times in distinct domains. This information is vital in the provision of informed consent as well as pre-operative education of patients regarding peri-operative and post-operative expectations. Ultimately this data can be combined with individual risk factors to provide personalized consent and expectations as well as tailor peri-operative and post-operative management regimens. PMID:18848110

Life cycle of transformer oil

OpenAIRE

Đurđević Ksenija R.; Vojinović-Miloradov Mirjana; Sokolović Slobodan M.

2008-01-01

The consumption of electric power is constantly increasing due to industrialization and population growth. This results in much more severe operating conditions of transformers, the most important electrical devices that make integral parts of power transmission and distribution systems. The designed operating life of the majority of worldwide transformers has already expired, which puts the increase of transformer reliability and operating life extension in the spotlight. Transformer oil pla...

Application of genetic algorithms for determination biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pantelic, G.

1998-01-01

Genetic algorithm an optimization method involving natural selection mechanisms, was used to determine biological half-life of sup 1 sup 3 sup 7 Cs in the milk, after the Chernobyl accident, based on a two compartment linear system model. Genetic algorithms operate on populations of strings. Reproduction, crossover and mutation are applied to successive string population to create new string population. A model parameter estimation is performed by minimizing square differences between fitting function and experimental data. The calculated biological half-life of sup 1 sup 3 sup 7 Cs in milk is (32(+(-) days (author)

Integrated approach for stress based lifing of aero gas turbine blades

Science.gov (United States)

Abu, Abdullahi Obonyegba

In order to analyse the turbine blade life, the damage due to the combined thermal and mechanical loads should be adequately accounted for. This is more challenging when detailed component geometry is limited. Therefore, a compromise between the level of geometric detail and the complexity of the lifing method to be implemented would be necessary. This research focuses on how the life assessment of aero engine turbine blades can be done, considering the balance between available design inputs and adequate level of fidelity. Accordingly, the thesis contributes to developing a generic turbine blade lifing method that is based on the engine thermodynamic cycle; as well as integrating critical design/technological factors and operational parameters that influence the aero engine blade life. To this end, thermo-mechanical fatigue was identified as the critical damage phenomenon driving the life of the turbine blade.. The developed approach integrates software tools and numerical models created using the minimum design information typically available at the early design stages. Using finite element analysis of an idealised blade geometry, the approach captures relevant impacts of thermal gradients and thermal stresses that contribute to the thermo-mechanical fatigue damage on the gas turbine blade. The blade life is evaluated using the Neu/Sehitoglu thermo-mechanical fatigue model that considers damage accumulation due to fatigue, oxidation, and creep. The leading edge is examined as a critical part of the blade to estimate the damage severity for different design factors and operational parameters. The outputs of the research can be used to better understand how the environment and the operating conditions of the aircraft affect the blade life consumption and therefore what is the impact on the maintenance cost and the availability of the propulsion system. This research also finds that the environmental (oxidation) effect drives the blade life and the blade coolant

Plant life management at Loviisa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hytoenen, Y.; Savikoski, A.

1998-01-01

IVO, Power Engineering Ltd. has developed a company-wide approach to plant life management. The first stage of plant life management comprises operational and maintenance histories, design and plant inspection data using advanced computer systems. The life of the plant can be controlled by maintenance, refurbishment and inspection programs, and by varying the method of plant operation. On-line monitoring is needed, and cost control and training must be taken into account if the life of the plant is to be managed efficiently. Identifying the life-limiting factors is essential at Loviisa. It has been concentrated on the aging in the form of materials degradation due to fatigue, erosion, corrosion, radiation and thermal effects. Certain other life-limiting factors are also mentioned

The influence of cooling forearm/hand and gender on estimation of handgrip strength.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Chih-Chan; Shih, Yuh-Chuan; Tsai, Yue-Jin; Chi, Chia-Fen

2014-01-01

Handgrip strength is essential in manual operations and activities of daily life, but the influence of forearm/hand skin temperature on estimation of handgrip strength is not well documented. Therefore, the present study intended to investigate the effect of local cooling of the forearm/hand on estimation of handgrip strength at various target force levels (TFLs, in percentage of MVC) for both genders. A cold pressor test was used to lower and maintain the hand skin temperature at 14°C for comparison with the uncooled condition. A total of 10 male and 10 female participants were recruited. The results indicated that females had greater absolute estimation deviations. In addition, both genders had greater absolute deviations in the middle range of TFLs. Cooling caused an underestimation of grip strength. Furthermore, a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Statement of relevance: Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the forearm/hand tended to cause underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Practitioner Summary: It is important to understand the effect of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. A cold pressor was used to cool the hand. The cooling caused underestimation, and a power function is recommended for establishing the relationship between actual and estimated handgrip force. Manipulation with grip strength is essential in daily life and the workplace, so it is important to understand the influence of lowering the forearm/hand skin temperature on grip-strength estimation. Females and the middle range of TFL had greater deviations. Cooling the

Unit costs of waste management operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kisieleski, W.E.; Folga, S.M.; Gillette, J.L.; Buehring, W.A.

1994-04-01

This report provides estimates of generic costs for the management, disposal, and surveillance of various waste types, from the time they are generated to the end of their institutional control. Costs include monitoring and surveillance costs required after waste disposal. Available data on costs for the treatment, storage, disposal, and transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive, low-level radioactive, transuranic radioactive, hazardous, mixed (low-level radioactive plus hazardous), and sanitary wastes are presented. The costs cover all major elements that contribute to the total system life-cycle (i.e., ''cradle to grave'') cost for each waste type. This total cost is the sum of fixed and variable cost components. Variable costs are affected by operating rates and throughput capacities and vary in direct proportion to changes in the level of activity. Fixed costs remain constant regardless of changes in the amount of waste, operating rates, or throughput capacities. Key factors that influence cost, such as the size and throughput capacity of facilities, are identified. In many cases, ranges of values for the key variables are presented. For some waste types, the planned or estimated costs for storage and disposal, projected to the year 2000, are presented as graphics

Plant-life extension planning for an operating LMFBR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, R.W.

1985-01-01

The study concluded that continued EBR-II operation is certainly feasible for well beyond 10 more years, and that continued demonstration of the unique inherent safety and operability features of a pool-type liquid-metal-cooled reactor and the demonstration of a reasonable operating lifetime are very important and will provide invaluable information for the design and development of the next generation nuclear power plants

Social impact assessment of sugar production operations in South Africa : a social life cycle assessment perspective

OpenAIRE

2013-01-01

M.Tech. (Quality and Operations Management) This paper focuses on the social impact of the sugar industry in South Africa. A social impact assessment is a method that aims to assess social features of the product and their positive and negative aspects in terms of its processing of raw material to the final stages of its disposal. The objectives of the study were guided by the guidelines on social life cycle assessment of products of the South African Sugar Industry developed by the United...

Life Shocks and Crime: A Test of the “Turning Point” Hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Noonan, Kelly; Reichman, Nancy E.; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira

2012-01-01

Other researchers have posited that important events in men’s lives—such as employment, marriage, and parenthood—strengthen their social ties and lead them to refrain from crime. A challenge in empirically testing this hypothesis has been the issue of self-selection into life transitions. This study contributes to this literature by estimating the effects of an exogenous life shock on crime. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, augmented with information from hospital medical records, to estimate the effects of the birth of a child with a severe health problem on the likelihood that the infant’s father engages in illegal activities. We conduct a number of auxiliary analyses to examine exogeneity assumptions. We find that having an infant born with a severe health condition increases the likelihood that the father is convicted of a crime in the three-year period following the birth of the child, and at least part of the effect appears to operate through work and changes in parental relationships. These results provide evidence that life events can cause crime and, as such, support the “turning point” hypothesis. PMID:21660628

Neuro-fuzzy computing for vibration-based damage localization and severity estimation in an experimental wind turbine blade with superimposed operational effects

Science.gov (United States)

Hoell, Simon; Omenzetter, Piotr