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Sample records for operational life estimation

  1. Remaining useful life estimation in heterogeneous fleets working under variable operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Dahidi, Sameer; Di Maio, Francesco; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The availability of condition monitoring data for large fleets of similar equipment motivates the development of data-driven prognostic approaches that capitalize on the information contained in such data to estimate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL). A main difficulty is that the fleet of equipment typically experiences different operating conditions, which influence both the condition monitoring data and the degradation processes that physically determine the RUL. We propose an approach for RUL estimation from heterogeneous fleet data based on three phases: firstly, the degradation levels (states) of an homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-markov model are identified by resorting to an unsupervised ensemble clustering approach. Then, the parameters of the discrete Weibull distributions describing the transitions among the states and their uncertainties are inferred by resorting to the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), respectively. Finally, the inferred degradation model is used to estimate the RUL of fleet equipment by direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed approach is applied to two case studies regarding heterogeneous fleets of aluminium electrolytic capacitors and turbofan engines. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the RUL and its superiority compared to a fuzzy similarity-based approach of literature. - Highlights: • The prediction of the remaining useful life for heterogeneous fleets is addressed. • A data-driven prognostics approach based on a Markov model is proposed. • The proposed approach is applied to two different heterogeneous fleets. • The results are compared with those obtained by a fuzzy similarity-based approach.

  2. Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically monitored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific operational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC. The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with existing methods for the same dataset.

  3. [Fuel Rod Consolidation Project]: The estimated total life cycle cost for the 30-year operation of prototypical consolidation demonstration equipment: Volume 4, Phase 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The Total Life Cycle Costs have been developed for the construction, operation and decommissioning of a single line of hot-cell-enclosed production consolidation equipment operating on spent fuel at the rate of 750 MTU/year for 30 years. The cost estimate is for a single production line that is part of an overall facility at either a Monitored Retrievable Storage or a Repository facility. This overall facility would include other capabilities and possibly other consolidation lines. However, no costs were included in the cost estimate for other portions of the plant, except that staff costs include an overhead charge that reflects the overhead support services in an overall facility

  4. Operational Waste Stream Assumption for TSLCC Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, S.

    2000-01-01

    This document provides the background and basis for the operational waste stream used in the 2000 Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate for the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). This document has been developed in accordance with its Development Plan (CRWMS MandO 2000a), and AP-3.11Q, ''Technical Reports''

  5. Thermodynamics and life span estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuddusi, Lütfullah

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey is estimated by applying the first and second laws of thermodynamics to the human body. The people living in different regions of Turkey have different food habits. The first and second laws of thermodynamics are used to calculate the entropy generation rate per unit mass of a human due to the food habits. The lifetime entropy generation per unit mass of a human was previously found statistically. The two entropy generations, lifetime entropy generation and entropy generation rate, enable one to determine the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey with different food habits. In order to estimate the life span, some statistics of Turkish Statistical Institute regarding the food habits of the people living in seven regions of Turkey are used. The life spans of people that live in Central Anatolia and Eastern Anatolia regions are the longest and shortest, respectively. Generally, the following inequality regarding the life span of people living in seven regions of Turkey is found: Eastern Anatolia < Southeast Anatolia < Black Sea < Mediterranean < Marmara < Aegean < Central Anatolia. - Highlights: • The first and second laws of thermodynamics are applied to the human body. • The entropy generation of a human due to his food habits is determined. • The life span of Turks is estimated by using the entropy generation method. • Food habits of a human have effect on his life span

  6. A study on the method for estimating the life time of O-rings made of NBR used in sealing air operating cylinders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Yuzo; Mitsuta, Yasumasa

    2003-01-01

    At nuclear power plants, a large number of O-rings made of rubber are attached to safety related machines and apparatus for sealing two metallic components. O-rings degrade during the long term exposure in environmental conditions in use, and finally lose the requested functions. Therefore it is important to exchange them in a proper period based on the precise life time estimation. This study aimed at to investigate the method for estimating the life time of O-rings made of NBR (acrylonitrile butadiene rubber) attached to the air cylinders which drive the dampers of ventilation systems in nuclear power plants. It has been conducted as follows: (1) After confirming that the main cause of degradation of O-rings is thermo-oxidation reaction, thermally accelerated aging tests were carried out for O-rings with three different temperatures. (2) It was certified that the elongation values of O-rings obtained by the tests could be fitted by the Arrhenius rule, and then the life time of O-rings was estimated using the Arrhenius rule. (3) In order to validate the reliability of this estimation, we measured the elongation values of the O-rings which had been actually used at nuclear power plants, and compared them to the predicted elongation values obtained by the above estimation. The average and standard deviation of the values which is calculated by the equation {(measured value-predicted value)/ predicted value} are 11% and 8%, respectively and there are small errors between the measured value and the predicted values. As a result we can judge that good estimation of life time of O-rings can be done by the above method. (author)

  7. A Bayesian Framework for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) of a faulty component is at the center of system prognostics and health management. It gives operators a potent tool in...

  8. Planning and Estimation of Operations Support Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Marilyn E.; Barley, Bryan; Bacskay, Allen; Clardy, Dennon

    2010-01-01

    Life Cycle Cost (LCC) estimates during the proposal and early design phases, as well as project replans during the development phase, are heavily focused on hardware development schedules and costs. Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead to de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Any LCC growth can directly impact the programs' ability to fund new missions, and even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that 4 out of the 5 missions studied had significant overruns at or after launch due to underestimation of the complexity and supporting requirements for operations activities; the fifth mission had not launched at the time of the mission. The drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This paper updates the D

  9. Operation of ULCS - real life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasna Prpić-Oršić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the real life operation of ULCS (Ultra Large Container Ships is presented from the point of view of shipmasters. The paper provides interpretation of results of questionnaire filled by masters of large container ships during Tools for Ultra Large Container Ships (TULC EUI FP7 project. This is done in a way that results of questionnaire are further reviewed and commented by experienced master of ULCS. Following phenomena are subject of questionnaire and further discussed in the paper: parametric rolling, slamming, whipping, springing, green water and rogue waves. Special attention is given to the definition of rough sea states as well as to measures that ship masters take to avoid them as well as to the manoeuvring in heavy seas. The role of the wave forecast and weather routing software is also discussed.

  10. Robust motion estimation using connected operators

    OpenAIRE

    Salembier Clairon, Philippe Jean; Sanson, H

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of connected operators for robust motion estimation The proposed strategy involves a motion estimation step extracting the dominant motion and a ltering step relying on connected operators that remove objects that do not fol low the dominant motion. These two steps are iterated in order to obtain an accurate motion estimation and a precise de nition of the objects fol lowing this motion This strategy can be applied on the entire frame or on individual connected c...

  11. Borosonic inspection and remaining useful operational life estimation of steam turbine rotors; Inspeccion borosonica y estimacion de vida remanente de rotores de turbinas de vapor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carnero P, Jose A; Dorantes G, Oscar; Munoz Q, Rodolfo; Serrano R, Luis E. [Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico)

    2004-07-01

    The turbo-generators used in the electric power generation frequently go through transitory operations (start ups, shut downs or power changes). Such actions cause that certain critical components of the turbines, such as rotors and casings, are put under cycles of repetitive stresses, which consume its useful life. The frequency whereupon these transitory thermal cycles happen result in the presence of high thermo-mechanical stresses that produce fatigue (damage) in the rotor material. With time, at the increase of the material fatigue, fissures form that can inclusively lead to severe, catastrophic faults. The borosonic inspection consists in introducing and positioning an automatic probe in the central drill of the rotor, this allows the non-destructive inspection with longitudinal ultrasonic beam, ultrasonic cross-sectional and ultrasonic superficial. This way, it is possible to detect and locate geometric discontinuities (superficial and volumetric), in at least 100 mm of depth from the drill surface in its entire periphery and throughout the rotor length. [Spanish] Los turbogeneradores empleados en la generacion de energia electrica con frecuencia realizan operaciones transitorias (arranques, paros o cambios de potencia). Acciones tales, provocan que ciertos componentes criticos de las turbinas, como los rotores y carcasas, sean sometidos a ciclos de esfuerzos repetitivos, lo que consume su vida util. La frecuencia con que ocurren estos ciclos termicos transitorios da como resultado la presencia de altos esfuerzos termomecanicos que producen una fatiga (dano) en el material del rotor. Con el tiempo, al incrementarse la fatiga del material, se forman fisuras que pueden conducir a fallas severas, catastroficas inclusive. La inspeccion borosonica consiste en introducir y posicionar una sonda automatica en el barreno central del rotor, ello permite la inspeccion no destructiva con haz ultrasonico longitudinal, haz ultrasonico transversal y haz ultrasonico

  12. Model improves oil field operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    A detailed operating cost model that forecasts operating cost profiles toward the end of a field's life should be constructed for testing depletion strategies and plans for major oil fields. Developing a good understanding of future operating cost trends is important. Incorrectly forecasting the trend can result in bad decision making regarding investments and reservoir operating strategies. Recent projects show that significant operating expense reductions can be made in the latter stages o field depletion without significantly reducing the expected ultimate recoverable reserves. Predicting future operating cost trends is especially important for operators who are currently producing a field and must forecast the economic limit of the property. For reasons presented in this article, it is usually not correct to either assume that operating expense stays fixed in dollar terms throughout the lifetime of a field, nor is it correct to assume that operating costs stay fixed on a dollar per barrel basis

  13. Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnsen, Jon

    As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra.The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp , including a new result for type 1,1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp -functions with compact spectra....

  14. Pointwise estimates of pseudo-differential operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnsen, Jon

    2011-01-01

    As a new technique it is shown how general pseudo-differential operators can be estimated at arbitrary points in Euclidean space when acting on functions u with compact spectra. The estimate is a factorisation inequality, in which one factor is the Peetre–Fefferman–Stein maximal function of u......, whilst the other is a symbol factor carrying the whole information on the symbol. The symbol factor is estimated in terms of the spectral radius of u, so that the framework is well suited for Littlewood–Paley analysis. It is also shown how it gives easy access to results on polynomial bounds...... and estimates in Lp, including a new result for type 1, 1-operators that they are always bounded on Lp-functions with compact spectra....

  15. Life Estimation of Hip Joint Prosthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, C.; Hirani, H.; Chawla, A.

    2015-07-01

    Hip joint is one of the largest weight-bearing structures in the human body. In the event of a failure of the natural hip joint, it is replaced with an artificial hip joint, known as hip joint prosthesis. The design of hip joint prosthesis must be such so as to resist fatigue failure of hip joint stem as well as bone cement, and minimize wear caused by sliding present between its head and socket. In the present paper an attempt is made to consider both fatigue and wear effects simultaneously in estimating functional-life of the hip joint prosthesis. The finite element modeling of hip joint prosthesis using HyperMesh™ (version 9) has been reported. The static analysis (load due to the dead weight of the body) and dynamic analysis (load due to walking cycle) have been described. Fatigue life is estimated by using the S-N curve of individual materials. To account for progressive wear of hip joint prosthesis, Archard's wear law, modifications in socket geometry and dynamic analysis have been used in a sequential manner. Using such sequential programming reduction in peak stress has been observed with increase in wear. Finally life is estimated on the basis of socket wear.

  16. Evaluating Current Practices in Shelf Life Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capen, Robert; Christopher, David; Forenzo, Patrick; Huynh-Ba, Kim; LeBlond, David; Liu, Oscar; O'Neill, John; Patterson, Nate; Quinlan, Michelle; Rajagopalan, Radhika; Schwenke, James; Stroup, Walter

    2018-02-01

    The current International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) methods for determining the supported shelf life of a drug product, described in ICH guidance documents Q1A and Q1E, are evaluated in this paper. To support this evaluation, an industry data set is used which is comprised of 26 individual stability batches of a common drug product where most batches are measured over a 24 month storage period. Using randomly sampled sets of 3 or 6 batches from the industry data set, the current ICH methods are assessed from three perspectives. First, the distributional properties of the supported shelf lives are summarized and compared to the distributional properties of the true shelf lives associated with the industry data set, assuming the industry data set represents a finite population of drug product batches for discussion purposes. Second, the results of the ICH "poolability" tests for model selection are summarized and the separate shelf life distributions from the possible alternative models are compared. Finally, the ICH methods are evaluated in terms of their ability to manage risk. Shelf life estimates that are too long result in an unacceptable percentage of nonconforming batches at expiry while those that are too short put the manufacturer at risk of possibly having to prematurely discard safe and efficacious drug product. Based on the analysis of the industry data set, the ICH-recommended approach did not produce supported shelf lives that effectively managed risk. Alternative approaches are required.

  17. Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

    1986-01-01

    The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

  18. Remaining Life Estimation Of Secondary Superheater Outlet On Industrial Electrical Boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soedardjo; Andryansyah; Arhatari, B.D.; Natsir, Muhammad; Triyadi, Ari; Farokhi

    2001-01-01

    Remaining life estimation of secondary superheater header outlet (SSHO) on industrial electrical boiler has been carried out. Estimation conducted by the observation of microstructure cavitation development based on Neubauer and Wedel theory. The result is available for isolated cavitation development present yet. That Secondary Superheater Outlet component is in good condition after 14 years operated and predicted could be operated for 36 years again

  19. Life Sciences Implications of Lunar Surface Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Steven P.; Norcross, Jason R.; Abercromby, Andrew F.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document preliminary, predicted, life sciences implications of expected operational concepts for lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA). Algorithms developed through simulation and testing in lunar analog environments were used to predict crew metabolic rates and ground reaction forces experienced during lunar EVA. Subsequently, the total metabolic energy consumption, the daily bone load stimulus, total oxygen needed, and other variables were calculated and provided to Human Research Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate stakeholders. To provide context to the modeling, the report includes an overview of some scenarios that have been considered. Concise descriptions of the analog testing and development of the algorithms are also provided. This document may be updated to remain current with evolving lunar or other planetary surface operations, assumptions and concepts, and to provide additional data and analyses collected during the ongoing analog research program.

  20. Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, F.J.

    1979-09-01

    An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

  1. Estimation of life of PVC cables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bora, J.S.; Babar, A.K.

    1989-01-01

    Life-spans at various extrapolated temperatures corresponding to early, mid and late-stage failures of PVC are quite consistent and is about 32 years at 30degC. For every 10degC rise in ambient temperature life becomes less than half. (author). 2 tabs

  2. Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.

  3. Velocity Estimation in Medical Ultrasound [Life Sciences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Villagómez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Holbek, Simon

    2017-01-01

    This article describes the application of signal processing in medical ultrasound velocity estimation. Special emphasis is on the relation among acquisition methods, signal processing, and estimators employed. The description spans from current clinical systems for one-and two-dimensional (1-D an...

  4. Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

  5. Robust Models for Operator Workload Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    piloted aircraft (RPA) simultaneously, a vast improvement in resource utilization compared to existing operations that require several operators per...into distinct cognitive channels (visual, auditory, spatial, etc.) based on our ability to multitask effectively as long as no one channel is

  6. Life estimation I and C cable insulation materials based on accelerated life testing accelerated life testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ramteke, P.K.; Shrestha, N.B.; Ahirwar, A.K.; Gopika, V.

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated Iife tests are becoming increasingly popular in today's industry due to the need for obtaining life data quickly and reliably. Life testing of products under higher stress levels without introducing additional failure modes can provide significant savings of both time and money. Correct analysis of data gathered via such accelerated life testing will yield parameters and other information for the product's life under use stress conditions. To be of practical use in assessing the operational behaviour of cables in NPPs, laboratory ageing aims to mimic the type of degradation observed under operational conditions. Conditions of testing therefore need to be carefully chosen to ensure that the degradation mechanism occurring in the accelerated tests are similar to those which occur in service. This paper presents the results of an investigation in which the elongation-at-break (EAB) measurements were carried on a typical control cable to predict the mean life at service conditions. A low voltage polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulated and PVC sheathed control cable, used in NPP instrumentation and control (I and C) applications, was subjected thermal ageing at three elevated temperatures

  7. Estimation of regulated term of technical systems further operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strel'nikov, V.P.

    2008-01-01

    The technique of estimating the regulated term of technical systems further operation on the basis of data on failures during operation and use of probabilistic-physical model of failures (DN-distribution) is proposed

  8. Weighted estimates for the averaging integral operator

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Opic, Bohumír; Rákosník, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 3 (2010), s. 253-262 ISSN 0010-0757 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/05/2033; GA ČR GA201/08/0383 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : averaging integral operator * weighted Lebesgue spaces * weights Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.474, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF03191231

  9. Estimation of fire frequency from PWR operating experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertrand, R.; Bonneval, F.; Barrachin, G.; Bonino, F.

    1998-01-01

    In the framework of a fire probabilistic safety assessment (Fire PSA), the French Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection (IPSN) has developed a method for estimating the frequency of fire in a nuclear power plant room. This method is based on the analysis of French Pressurized Water Reactors operating experience. The method adopted consists is carrying out an in-depth analysis of fire-related incidents. A database has been created including 202 fire events reported in 900 MWe and 1300 MWe reactors from the start of their commercial operation up to the first of March 1994, which represents a cumulated service life of 508 reactor-years. For each reported fire, several data were recorded among which: The operating state of the reactor in the stage preceding the fire, the building in which the fire broke out, the piece of equipment or the human intervention which caused the fire. Operating experience shows that most fires are initiated by electrical problems (short-circuits, arcing, faulty contacts, etc.) and that human intervention also plays an important role (grinding, cutting, welding, cleaning, etc.). A list of equipment and of human interventions which proved to be possible fire sources was therefore drawn up. the items of this list were distributed in 19 reference groups defined by taking into account the nature of the potential ignition source (transformers, electrical cabinets, pumps, fans, etc.). The fire frequency assigned to each reference group was figured out using the operating experience information of the database. The fire frequency in a room is considered to be made out of two contributions: one due to equipment which is proportional to the number of pieces of equipment from each reference group contained in the room, and a second one which is due to human interventions and assumed to be uniform throughout the reactor. Formulas to assess the fire frequencies in a room, the reactor being in a shutdown state or at power, are then proposed

  10. Estimating emissions from grout pouring operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballinger, M.Y.; Hendrickson, D.W.

    1993-08-01

    Grouting is a method for disposal of low-level radioactive waste in which a contaminated solution is mixed into a slurry, poured into a large storage vault, then dried, fixing the contaminants within a stable solid matrix. A model (RELEASE) has been developed to estimate the quantity of aeorsol created during the pouring process. Information and equations derived from spill experiments were used in the model to determine release fractions. This paper discusses the derivation of the release fraction equation used in the code and the model used to account for gravity settling of particles in the vault. The input and results for a base case application are shown

  11. Loss of life of induction motors under various operating anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chugh, Tarun; Varde, P.V.

    2016-01-01

    Reliability studies conducted to study the various failure modes of all induction motors shows that one of failure modes i.e. winding failure is quite prevalent and accounts for high percentage of failures of motors. Thus, there is a pivotal need to understand the theory of winding failure and know how it can be prognosticated based on the input parameters, current operating environment and maintenance history of a motor. This paper defines loss of motor life as the loss of stator winding insulation life due to thermal and environmental stresses. From the thermal point of view, the stator winding insulation is the weakest part of a squirrel cage induction motor, and equations are developed to estimate the insulation Iife and hence the motor life. In this regard, an integrated model consisting of an electrical model, thermal model and insulation ageing model is developed to evaluate the effect of various anomalies/stressors e.g. overvoltage and voltage unbalance on the life of a motor. This model is used to quantify the loss of life of a 2.3 kW, 415 V induction motor. The electrical model is developed by conducting Open Circuit and Blocked Rotor Test on the motor and thereby deriving its equivalent circuit. Using the model, the stator winding losses are calculated and given as an input to the thermal model to find the temperature rise in the stator winding. The steady state temperature of the stator winding is given as an input to the insulation aging model which predicts the loss of life. This work presents a simple technique for calculating thermal parameters based on motor testing rather than from motor design data. The insulation ageing model is developed based on Eyring Equation considering temperature and humidity as stressors. (author)

  12. The estimation of labor life quality in regions of Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Yelena Leonidovna Andreyeva; Tatyana Vladimirovna Polkova

    2013-01-01

    The methodology of labor life quality estimation based on research of the social and labor sphere of Russia regions over the last 10 years is described in the article. The most significant components of the labor life quality, allowing to estimate the central problem places of the social and labor sphere (employment and unemployment, salary and income, qualification and labor productivity, safety and work organization, business and investment activity) are allocated and proved. On...

  13. 16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

  14. Modeling Operating Modes during Plant Life Cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Sten Bay; Lind, Morten

    2012-01-01

    Modelling process plants during normal operation requires a set a basic assumptions to define the desired functionalities which lead to fullfillment of the operational goal(-s) for the plant. However during during start-up and shut down as well as during batch operation an ensemble of interrelated...... modes are required to cover the whole operational window of a processs plant including intermediary operating modes. Development of such an model ensemble for a plant would constitute a systematic way of defining the possible plant operating modes and thus provide a platform for also defining a set...... of candidate control structures. The present contribution focuses on development of a model ensemble for a plant with an illustartive example for a bioreactor. Starting from a functional model a process plant may be conceptually designed and qualitative operating models may be developed to cover the different...

  15. Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-19

    the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

  16. PFP total operating efficiency calculation and basis of estimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Total Operating Efficiency Calculation and Basis of Estimate document is to provide the calculated value and basis of estimate for the Total Operating Efficiency (TOE) for the material stabilization operations to be conducted in 234-52 Building. This information will be used to support both the planning and execution of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Stabilization and Deactivation Project's (hereafter called the Project) resource-loaded, integrated schedule

  17. MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R.E. Sweeney

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  18. Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

  19. The estimation of labor life quality in regions of Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelena Leonidovna Andreyeva

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The methodology of labor life quality estimation based on research of the social and labor sphere of Russia regions over the last 10 years is described in the article. The most significant components of the labor life quality, allowing to estimate the central problem places of the social and labor sphere (employment and unemployment, salary and income, qualification and labor productivity, safety and work organization, business and investment activity are allocated and proved. On the basis of an author’s calculation method of an integrated index of labor life quality of the population in regions of Russia are calculated and analyzed in dynamics. Regularities of formation of an integrated index of labor life quality in regions of Russia are revealed, ways of an assessment of efficiency of realized state programs in the social and labor sphere are planned.

  20. Remaining useful life estimation based on discriminating shapelet extraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinowski, Simon; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2015-01-01

    In the Prognostics and Health Management domain, estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of critical machinery is a challenging task. Various research topics including data acquisition, fusion, diagnostics and prognostics are involved in this domain. This paper presents an approach, based on shapelet extraction, to estimate the RUL of equipment. This approach extracts, in an offline step, discriminative rul-shapelets from an history of run-to-failure data. These rul-shapelets are patterns that are selected for their correlation with the remaining useful life of the equipment. In other words, every selected rul-shapelet conveys its own information about the RUL of the equipment. In an online step, these rul-shapelets are compared to testing units and the ones that match these units are used to estimate their RULs. Therefore, RUL estimation is based on patterns that have been selected for their high correlation with the RUL. This approach is different from classical similarity-based approaches that attempt to match complete testing units (or only late instants of testing units) with training ones to estimate the RUL. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a case study on the remaining useful life estimation of turbofan engines and performance is compared with other similarity-based approaches. - Highlights: • A data-driven RUL estimation technique based on pattern extraction is proposed. • Patterns are extracted for their correlation with the RUL. • The proposed method shows good performance compared to other techniques

  1. Estimated Costs of Continuing Operations in Iraq and Other Operations of the Global War on Terrorism

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Holtz-Eakin, Douglas

    2004-01-01

    At the request of Senator Conrad, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other operations associated with the global war on terrorism (GWOT...

  2. Estimation of pump operational state with model-based methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahonen, Tero; Tamminen, Jussi; Ahola, Jero; Viholainen, Juha; Aranto, Niina; Kestilae, Juha

    2010-01-01

    Pumps are widely used in industry, and they account for 20% of the industrial electricity consumption. Since the speed variation is often the most energy-efficient method to control the head and flow rate of a centrifugal pump, frequency converters are used with induction motor-driven pumps. Although a frequency converter can estimate the operational state of an induction motor without external measurements, the state of a centrifugal pump or other load machine is not typically considered. The pump is, however, usually controlled on the basis of the required flow rate or output pressure. As the pump operational state can be estimated with a general model having adjustable parameters, external flow rate or pressure measurements are not necessary to determine the pump flow rate or output pressure. Hence, external measurements could be replaced with an adjustable model for the pump that uses estimates of the motor operational state. Besides control purposes, modelling the pump operation can provide useful information for energy auditing and optimization purposes. In this paper, two model-based methods for pump operation estimation are presented. Factors affecting the accuracy of the estimation methods are analyzed. The applicability of the methods is verified by laboratory measurements and tests in two pilot installations. Test results indicate that the estimation methods can be applied to the analysis and control of pump operation. The accuracy of the methods is sufficient for auditing purposes, and the methods can inform the user if the pump is driven inefficiently.

  3. Operational Modal Analysis based Stress Estimation in Friction Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarpø, Marius; Friis, Tobias; Nabuco, Bruna

    this assumption. In this paper, the precision of estimating the strain response of a nonlinear system is investigated using the operational response of numerical simulations. Local nonlinearities are introduced by adding friction to the test specimen and this paper finds that this approach of strain estimation...

  4. Interpolation Inequalities and Spectral Estimates for Magnetic Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolbeault, Jean; Esteban, Maria J.; Laptev, Ari; Loss, Michael

    2018-05-01

    We prove magnetic interpolation inequalities and Keller-Lieb-Thir-ring estimates for the principal eigenvalue of magnetic Schr{\\"o}dinger operators. We establish explicit upper and lower bounds for the best constants and show by numerical methods that our theoretical estimates are accurate.

  5. $L^2$ estimates for the $\\bar \\partial$ operator

    OpenAIRE

    McNeal, Jeffery D.; Varolin, Dror

    2015-01-01

    This is a survey article about $L^2$ estimates for the $\\bar \\partial$ operator. After a review of the basic approach that has come to be called the "Bochner-Kodaira Technique", the focus is on twisted techniques and their applications to estimates for $\\bar \\partial$, to $L^2$ extension theorems, and to other problems in complex analysis and geometry, including invariant metric estimates and the $\\bar \\partial$-Neumann Problem.

  6. Norm estimates of complex symmetric operators applied to quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil; Garcia, Stephan R; Putinar, Mihai

    2006-01-01

    This paper communicates recent results in the theory of complex symmetric operators and shows, through two non-trivial examples, their potential usefulness in the study of Schroedinger operators. In particular, we propose a formula for computing the norm of a compact complex symmetric operator. This observation is applied to two concrete problems related to quantum mechanical systems. First, we give sharp estimates on the exponential decay of the resolvent and the single-particle density matrix for Schroedinger operators with spectral gaps. Second, we provide new ways of evaluating the resolvent norm for Schroedinger operators appearing in the complex scaling theory of resonances

  7. Quality of life of nurses in the operating room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Murano Alfaia dos Santos

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the quality of life of operating room nurses and collect their opinions as to the influence their professional activity exerts on their quality of life. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out on a sample of 24 nurses that work in the operating room of a large private hospital in the city of São Paulo. Two questionnaires were applied; one was designed by the authors of this research project, and the other was the Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF. Rresults: As to quality of life, the environment domain obtained the highest score, while the psychological domain obtained the lowest. When asked if their professional activity in the operating room influenced their quality of life, most responded affirmatively. Regarding the justifications offered by the nurses for the influence of their professional activity on their quality of life, 50% mentioned environment-related stress, responsibilities, duties, risk situations, relationships with the multiprofessional team, and the type of work carried out in the operating room. Cconclusions: The psychological domain obtained the lowest score in the nurse quality of life evaluation, pointing out the need to facilitate and/or encourage nurses to seek psychological support. As to the influence of their professional activity on their quality of life, the nurses mentioned stress related to their work environment and professional activities in the operating room. This highlights the importance of managers in this area, paying greater attention to the individual and collective needs of their employees.

  8. Calculation of life distributions, in particular Weibull distributions, from operational observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rauhut, J.

    1982-01-01

    Established methods are presented by which life distributions of machine elements can be determined on the basis of laboratory experiments and operational observations. Practical observations are given special attention as the results estimated on the basis of conventional have not been accurate enough. As an introduction, the stochastic life concept, the general method of determining life distributions, various sampling methods, and the Weibull distribution are explained. Further, possible life testing schedules and maximum-likelihood estimates are discussed for the complete sample case and for censered sampling without replacement in laboratory experiments. Finally, censered sampling with replacement in laboratory experiments is discussed; it is shown how suitable parameter estimates can be obtained for given life distributions by means of the maximum-likelihood method. (orig./RW) [de

  9. Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

    2015-01-01

    n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

  10. Loss of life estimation-Review, developments and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Maaskant, B.; Kolen, B.; Needham, J. T Jason

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the

  11. Life Cycle Costs in Education: Operations & Maintenance Considered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moussatche, Helena; Languell-Urquhart, Jennifer; Woodson, Carol

    2000-01-01

    Discusses life cycle cost analysis when deciding on flooring finishes and examines operations and maintenance cost effectiveness relative to hard, resilient, and soft flooring. A chart of evaluated flooring materials' characteristics, appropriate maintenance procedures, and recommended frequency is included. (GR)

  12. Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; May, Margaret; Phillips, Andrew

    2013-02-01

    The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research. With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for. Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

  13. Estimation of quality of life in haemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, S; Ramachandran, A

    2012-11-01

    Since haemodialysis is an expensive treatment modality for chronic renal failure patients, it is very essential to assess the outcome of therapy in terms of quality of life. The primary objective of the study was to estimate the effect of patient counselling in quality of life of end stage renal disease patients opting haemodialysis using World Health Organisation Quality of life scale and to assess the variables affecting the quality of life of these patients. Quality of life was determined by World Health Organisation Quality of life scale questionnaire comprised of 26 items which measures four domains: physical, psychological, social and environmental domain. A total of 81 patients were selected and divided into test and control group and the test group patients received counselling regarding their disease, use of medications, importance of adherence and the complications experienced during and after dialysis. The quality of life data was collected at the interval of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months and the patients were counselled at each interval. The demographic profiles revealed that majority of the patients were in the age group of 31-50 and there exists a male predominance. About the socioeconomic status, upper middle class people were mostly affected. Assessment of impact of patient counselling in the quality of life of haemodialysis indicated a significant improvement in each domain after counselling. And also found that the psychological domain showed a significant increase in the score compared to others. Patient counselling helped to gain benefits in terms of improvement in quality of life and delayed progression of renal failure. Early recognition and prevention is necessary to improve the quality of life of chronic renal failure patients. Patient counselling should be made mandatory by incorporating clinical pharmacist in the nephrology team to make the patient understand his illness and modifications in lifestyle also create a positive environment and

  14. Direct estimation of functionals of density operators by local operations and classical communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Carolina Moura; Horodecki, Pawel; Oi, Daniel K. L.; Kwek, L. C.; Ekert, Artur K.

    2003-01-01

    We present a method of direct estimation of important properties of a shared bipartite quantum state, within the ''distant laboratories'' paradigm, using only local operations and classical communication. We apply this procedure to spectrum estimation of shared states, and locally implementable structural physical approximations to incompletely positive maps. This procedure can also be applied to the estimation of channel capacity and measures of entanglement

  15. Smooth time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve estimators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos

    2018-03-01

    The receiver operating characteristic curve is a popular graphical method often used to study the diagnostic capacity of continuous (bio)markers. When the considered outcome is a time-dependent variable, two main extensions have been proposed: the cumulative/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve and the incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curve. In both cases, the main problem for developing appropriate estimators is the estimation of the joint distribution of the variables time-to-event and marker. As usual, different approximations lead to different estimators. In this article, the authors explore the use of a bivariate kernel density estimator which accounts for censored observations in the sample and produces smooth estimators of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. The performance of the resulting cumulative/dynamic and incident/dynamic receiver operating characteristic curves is studied by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, the influence of the choice of the required smoothing parameters is explored. Finally, two real-applications are considered. An R package is also provided as a complement to this article.

  16. Comparison of Plant Life Management Approaches for Long Term Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kisig

    2012-01-01

    Plant life management can be defined as the integration of ageing and economic planning to maintain a high level of safety and optimize operations. Many Member States have given high priority to long term operation of nuclear power plants beyond the time frame originally anticipated (e. g. 30 or 40 years). Out of a total of 445 (369 GWe) operating nuclear power plants, 349 units (297 GWe) have been in operation for more than 20 years (as of November 2011). The need for engineering support to operation, maintenance, safety review and life management for long term operation as well as education and training in the field is increasingly evident. In addition the Fukushima accident has rendered all stake holders even more attentive to safety concerns and to the provision of beyond safety measures in the preparation and scrutiny of applications for operational design life extensions. In many countries, the safety performance of NPPs is periodically followed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) approach. The regulatory The regulatory review and acceptance of the PSR gives the licensee the permission to operate the plant for up to the end of the next PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and other countries operating US designed plants, the license renewal application is based on the five pre-requisite requirements and ageing management programme for passive long life system structure and components(SSCs) and active systems is adequately addressed by the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. Other Member States have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both PSR and additional LRA specific requirements primarily focused on time limited ageing analysis. Taking into account this variety of approaches, the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) initiated work for collecting and sharing information among Member States about good practices on plant life management for long term operation in

  17. Schroedinger operators - geometric estimates in terms of the occupation time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demuth, M.; Kirsch, W.; McGillivray, I.

    1995-01-01

    The difference of Schroedinger and Dirichlet semigroups is expressed in terms of the Laplace transform of the Brownian motion occupation time. This implies quantitative upper and lower bounds for the operator norms of the corresponding resolvent differences. One spectral theoretical consequence is an estimate for the eigenfunction for a Schroedinger operator in a ball where the potential is given as a cone indicator function. 12 refs

  18. Estimating residual life of alloy 600 RPV penetrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, E.S.; White, G.A.; Pathania, R.; Arey, M.L.; Whitaker, D.E.

    1996-01-01

    Primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) of Alloy 600 penetrations PWR in reactor pressure vessel (RPV) heads has become a significant economic concern worldwide. PWSCC of these penetrations has led to extended maintenance outages, expensive inspections and repairs, and in some cases, replacement of the entire vessel head. This paper describes methodology developed to predict the remaining life of Alloy 600 penetrations in reactor vessel heads. Predictions of remaining life are an important input to planning models used by utilities to select a strategy for responding to the PWSCC issue at the lowest life cycle cost with an acceptably low risk of leakage. The remaining life of RPV penetrations is determined using the results of inspections of penetrations and statistical methods to predict future degradation. The analysis takes into account the effects of material properties, welding residual stresses, and operating temperature on PWSCC initiation and growth. The probability of developing cracks of various depths is assessed using Monte Carlo methods which provide for uncertainties in the input assumptions. For plants which have not yet performed inspections, remaining life predictions are based on inspection results from similar plants which have performed inspections with corrections made for known differences in design details, material properties and operating conditions

  19. A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

  20. Pose estimation of industrial objects towards robot operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Jie; Zhou, Fuqiang; Tan, Haishu; Cao, Yu

    2017-10-01

    With the advantages of wide range, non-contact and high flexibility, the visual estimation technology of target pose has been widely applied in modern industry, robot guidance and other engineering practices. However, due to the influence of complicated industrial environment, outside interference factors, lack of object characteristics, restrictions of camera and other limitations, the visual estimation technology of target pose is still faced with many challenges. Focusing on the above problems, a pose estimation method of the industrial objects is developed based on 3D models of targets. By matching the extracted shape characteristics of objects with the priori 3D model database of targets, the method realizes the recognition of target. Thus a pose estimation of objects can be determined based on the monocular vision measuring model. The experimental results show that this method can be implemented to estimate the position of rigid objects based on poor images information, and provides guiding basis for the operation of the industrial robot.

  1. LIFE Cost of Electricity, Capital and Operating Costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anklam, T.

    2011-01-01

    Successful commercialization of fusion energy requires economic viability as well as technical and scientific feasibility. To assess economic viability, we have conducted a pre-conceptual level evaluation of LIFE economics. Unit costs are estimated from a combination of bottom-up costs estimates, working with representative vendors, and scaled results from previous studies of fission and fusion plants. An integrated process model of a LIFE power plant was developed to integrate and optimize unit costs and calculate top level metrics such as cost of electricity and power plant capital cost. The scope of this activity was the entire power plant site. Separately, a development program to deliver the required specialized equipment has been assembled. Results show that LIFE power plant cost of electricity and plant capital cost compare favorably to estimates for new-build LWR's, coal and gas - particularly if indicative costs of carbon capture and sequestration are accounted for.

  2. Residual life estimation of cracked aircraft structural components

    OpenAIRE

    Maksimović, Mirko S.; Vasović, Ivana V.; Maksimović, Katarina S.; Trišović, Nataša; Maksimović, Stevan M.

    2018-01-01

    The subject of this investigation is focused on developing computation procedure for strength analysis of damaged aircraft structural components with respect to fatigue and fracture mechanics. For that purpose, here will be defined computation procedures for residual life estimation of aircraft structural components such as wing skin and attachment lugs under cyclic loads of constant amplitude and load spectrum. A special aspect of this investigation is based on using of the Strain Energy Den...

  3. An improved method for estimating fatigue life under combined stress

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Balda, Miroslav; Svoboda, Jaroslav; Fröhlich, Vladislav

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 1 (2007), s. 1-10 ISSN 1802-680X. [Applied and Computational Mechanics 2007. Nečtiny, 05.11.2007 - 07.11.2007] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA101/05/0199 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : multiaxial fatigue * life-time estimation * nonlinear least squares Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

  4. Loss of life estimation – Review, developments and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonkman S.N. (Bas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview and review of methods developed for loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment. These methods range from empirical to simulation based approaches that are used to support flood risk analyses and emergency management. Similarities and differences between the modelling approaches, input and output types and applications are discussed. Challenges to the field are summarized, including empirical data collection for validation and benchmarking and comparison studies.

  5. Lessons Learned for Planning and Estimating Operations Support Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Marilyn

    2011-01-01

    Operations (phase E) costs are typically small compared to the spacecraft development and test costs. This, combined with the long lead time for realizing operations costs, can lead projects to focus on hardware development schedules and costs, de-emphasizing estimation of operations support requirements during proposal, early design, and replan cost exercises. The Discovery and New Frontiers (D&NF) programs comprise small, cost-capped missions supporting scientific exploration of the solar system. Even moderate yearly underestimates of the operations costs can present significant LCC impacts for deep space missions with long operational durations, and any LCC growth can directly impact the programs ability to fund new missions. The D&NF Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center recently studied cost overruns for 7 D&NF missions related to phase C/D development of operational capabilities and phase E mission operations. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential operations risks and controlling the associated impacts to operations development and execution costs. The study found that the drivers behind these overruns include overly optimistic assumptions regarding the savings resulting from the use of heritage technology, late development of operations requirements, inadequate planning for sustaining engineering and the special requirements of long duration missions (e.g., knowledge retention and hardware/software refresh), and delayed completion of ground system development work. This presentation summarizes the study and the results, providing a set of lessons NASA can use to improve early estimation and validation of operations costs.

  6. Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

  7. Fatigue tests and life estimation of Incoloy alloy 908

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, J.; Toma, L.S.; Jang, C.H.; Steeves, M.M.

    1997-01-01

    Incoloy reg-sign alloy 908* is a candidate conduit material for Nb 3 Sn cable-in-conduit superconductors. The conduit is expected to experience cyclic loads at 4 K. Fatigue fracture of the conduit is one possible failure mode. So far, fatigue life has been estimated from fatigue crack growth data, which provide conservative results. The more traditional practice of life estimation using S-N curves has not been done for alloy 908 due to a lack of data at room and cryogenic temperatures. This paper presents a series of fatigue test results in response to this need. Tests were performed in reversed bending, rotating bending, and uniaxial fatigue machines. The test matrix included different heat treatments, two load ratios (R=-1 and 0.1), two temperatures (298 and 77 K), and two orientations (longitudinal and transverse). As expected, there is a semi-log linear relation between the applied stress and fatigue life above an applied stress (e.g., 310 MPa for tests at 298 K and R=-1). Below this stress the curves show an endurance limit. The aged and cold-worked materials have longer fatigue lives and higher endurance limits than the others. Different orientations have no apparent effect on life. Cryogenic temperature results in a much high fatigue life than room temperature. A higher tensile mean stress gives shorter fatigue life. It was also found that the fatigue lives of the reversed bending specimens were of the same order as those of the uniaxial test specimens, but were only half the lives of the rotating bending specimens for given stresses. A sample application of the S-N data is discussed

  8. Eigenvalue estimates of positive integral operators with analytic ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Eigenvalue estimates of positive integral operators. 337 will be used to denote, respectively, the complex line integral of f along γ and the integral of f with respect to arc-length measure. In the first case we assume γ has an orientation. The notation Lp(γ ) will denote the Lp space of normalized arc length measure on γ with.

  9. Operator support through modern optimal estimation and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burdick, G.R.

    1980-01-01

    Applications of Modern Optimal Estimation and Control Theories are late in coming to the nuclear industry. Some features of the theories that might be exploited in nuclear systems applications are described. Activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory relating to operator support using those theories are identified and some implementation challenges are discussed

  10. Estimating the energy saving potential of telecom operators in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Tian-Jian; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Huang, Jin; Peng, Ruo-Hong

    2013-01-01

    A set of models are employed to estimate the potential of total energy saved of productions and segmented energy saving for telecom operators in China. During the estimation, the total energy saving is divided into that by technology and management, which are derived from technical reform and progress, and management control measures and even marketing respectively, and the estimating methodologies for energy saving potential of each segment are elaborated. Empirical results from China Mobile indicate that, first, the technical advance in communications technology accounts for the largest proportion (70%–80%) of the total energy saved of productions in telecom sector of China. Second, technical reform brings about 20%–30% of the total energy saving. Third, the proportions of energy saving brought by marketing and control measures appear relatively smaller, just less than 3%. Therefore, China's telecom operators should seize the opportunity of the revolution of communications network techniques in recent years to create an advanced network with lower energy consumption

  11. Verification of unfold error estimates in the unfold operator code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehl, D.L.; Biggs, F.

    1997-01-01

    Spectral unfolding is an inverse mathematical operation that attempts to obtain spectral source information from a set of response functions and data measurements. Several unfold algorithms have appeared over the past 30 years; among them is the unfold operator (UFO) code written at Sandia National Laboratories. In addition to an unfolded spectrum, the UFO code also estimates the unfold uncertainty (error) induced by estimated random uncertainties in the data. In UFO the unfold uncertainty is obtained from the error matrix. This built-in estimate has now been compared to error estimates obtained by running the code in a Monte Carlo fashion with prescribed data distributions (Gaussian deviates). In the test problem studied, data were simulated from an arbitrarily chosen blackbody spectrum (10 keV) and a set of overlapping response functions. The data were assumed to have an imprecision of 5% (standard deviation). One hundred random data sets were generated. The built-in estimate of unfold uncertainty agreed with the Monte Carlo estimate to within the statistical resolution of this relatively small sample size (95% confidence level). A possible 10% bias between the two methods was unresolved. The Monte Carlo technique is also useful in underdetermined problems, for which the error matrix method does not apply. UFO has been applied to the diagnosis of low energy x rays emitted by Z-pinch and ion-beam driven hohlraums. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  12. Nuclear power plant life management and longer-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This book, prepared by NEA member country experts, contains data and analyses relevant to nuclear power plant life management and the plants' extended, longer-term operation (LTO). It addresses technical, economic and environmental aspects and provides insights into the benefits and challenges of plant life management and LTO. It will be of interest to policy makers and senior managers in the nuclear power sector and governmental bodies involved in nuclear power programme design and management. The data and information on current trends in nuclear power plant life management will be useful to researchers and analysts working in the field of nuclear energy system assessment. (authors)

  13. Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitarz, Piotr; Powałka, Bartosz

    2018-01-01

    Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is a common technique used to examine the dynamic properties of a system. Contrary to experimental modal analysis, the input signal is generated in object ambient environment. Operational modal analysis mainly aims at determining the number of pole pairs and at estimating modal parameters. Many methods are used for parameter identification. Some methods operate in time while others in frequency domain. The former use correlation functions, the latter - spectral density functions. However, while some methods require the user to select poles from a stabilisation diagram, others try to automate the selection process. Dual ant colony operational modal analysis parameter estimation method (DAC-OMA) presents a new approach to the problem, avoiding issues involved in the stabilisation diagram. The presented algorithm is fully automated. It uses deterministic methods to define the interval of estimated parameters, thus reducing the problem to optimisation task which is conducted with dedicated software based on ant colony optimisation algorithm. The combination of deterministic methods restricting parameter intervals and artificial intelligence yields very good results, also for closely spaced modes and significantly varied mode shapes within one measurement point.

  14. Estimating the remanent life of boiler pressure parts: Pt. 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askins, M.C.

    1988-04-01

    A cast of 1Cr1/2Mo steel has been creep tested in argon at stresses in the range 34-80 MPa and temperatures between 590-630 0 C in various heat treatment states, including normalized and tempered, and overaged. To assess their use in remanent life evaluations, various techniques have been used including hardness, bulk extraction of carbides and X-ray examination of the phases present, determination of matrix solute content, X-ray determination of the matrix lattice parameter and carbide extraction replication of the structure and measurement of various interparticle spacing parameters. The dependence of the spacing on time and temperature has been established and used to calibrate a model of tertiary creep for the material, based on the coarsening of the interparticle separation. The model is shown to match and predict the material's behaviour well. In application to plant the interparticle spacing can be determined from a small sample removed from the component. The model can be used to give estimates of the time to rupture, or more usefully, estimate the time to any given strain. Of all the techniques used, interparticle spacing determinations give the best estimates of remanent life. (author)

  15. Global Carleman estimates for degenerate parabolic operators with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cannarsa, P; Vancostenoble, J

    2016-01-01

    Degenerate parabolic operators have received increasing attention in recent years because they are associated with both important theoretical analysis, such as stochastic diffusion processes, and interesting applications to engineering, physics, biology, and economics. This manuscript has been conceived to introduce the reader to global Carleman estimates for a class of parabolic operators which may degenerate at the boundary of the space domain, in the normal direction to the boundary. Such a kind of degeneracy is relevant to study the invariance of a domain with respect to a given stochastic diffusion flow, and appears naturally in climatology models.

  16. Blade Bearing Friction Estimation of Operating Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perisic, Nevena; Pedersen, Bo Juul; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2012-01-01

    Blade root bearing on a wind turbine (WTG) enables pitching of blades for power control and rotor braking and is a WTG critical component. As the size of modern WTGs is constantly increasing, this leads to relatively less rigid bearings, more sensitive to deformations, thus WTG operational...... reliability can be increased by continuous monitoring of blade bearing. High blade bearing friction is undesirable, as it may be associated with excessive heating of the surfaces, damage and/or inefficient operation. Thus, continuous observation of bearing friction level is crucial for blade bearing health...... monitoring systems. A novel algorithm for online monitoring of bearing friction level is developed combining physical knowledge about pitch system dynamics with state estimator, i.e. observer theory and signal processing assuming realistic sensor availability. Results show estimation of bearing friction...

  17. Estimation for a Weibull accelerated life testing model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, R.E.

    1984-01-01

    It is sometimes reasonable to assume that the lifetime distribution of an item belongs to a certain parametric family, and that actual parameter values depend upon the testing environment of the item. In the two-parameter Weibull family setting, suppose both the shape and scale parameters are expressible as functions of the testing environment. For various models of functional dependency on environment, maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate characteristics of interest at specified environmental levels. The methodology presented handles exact, censored, and grouped data. A detailed accelerated life testing analysis of stress-rupture data for Kevlar/epoxy composites is given. 10 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

  18. Evaluation of operating experience for service life of components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, H.; Sunder, R.

    1987-01-01

    The evaluation of the operating experience of German light-water reactor components based on licensee event reports indicates that a large part of the defects and failures are caused by fatigue and/or corrosion type mechanisms. Actions have been taken to eliminate the causes by redesigning systems, replacement of components and change of operating procedures. The interaction of fatigue and corrosion mechanisms are not understood in all details today, further research is still necessary. To establish a more realistic data base of the local loading and water chemistry condition for all loading conditions the application of advanced monitoring systems is proposed. The benefits of these systems are that the operating procedures can be further optimized, the actual used life time fraction can be calculated regularly and the data base can be used for life time extension. (orig.) [de

  19. Integrity and life estimation of turbine runner cover in a hydro power plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sedmak

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents integrity and life estimation of turbine runner cover in a vertical pipe turbines, Kaplan 200 MW nominal output power, produced in Russia, and built in six hydro-generation units of hydroelectric power plant „Đerdap 1” in Serbia. Fatigue and corrosion-fatigue interaction have been taken into account using experimentally obtained material properties, as well as analytical and numerical calculations of stress state, to estimate appropriate safety factors. Fatigue crack growth rate, da/dN, was also calculated, indicated that internal defects of circular or elliptical shape, found out by ultrasonic testing, do not affect reliable operation of runner cover.

  20. Estimation of the temporary service life of DC arc plasmatron cathode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, V. M.; Pereslavtsev, A. V.; Tresvyatskii, S. S.

    2017-09-01

    The service life of the cathode of a DC arc plasmatron continuously working with tubular electrodes that operate in the air has been considered using the semi-phenomenological approach. The thermal emission, that ensures the necessary flow of electrons, and the evaporation of the cathode material, which determines its erosion, have been taken as the basic physical phenomena that constitute the workflow. The relationships that enable the estimation of the cathode's operating time have been obtained using the known regularities of these phenomena and experimental data available in the literature. The resulting evaluations coincide satisfactorily with the endurance test results.

  1. Estimated water requirements for gold heap-leach operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleiwas, Donald I.

    2012-01-01

    This report provides a perspective on the amount of water necessary for conventional gold heap-leach operations. Water is required for drilling and dust suppression during mining, for agglomeration and as leachate during ore processing, to support the workforce (requires water in potable form and for sanitation), for minesite reclamation, and to compensate for water lost to evaporation and leakage. Maintaining an adequate water balance is especially critical in areas where surface and groundwater are difficult to acquire because of unfavorable climatic conditions [arid conditions and (or) a high evaporation rate]; where there is competition with other uses, such as for agriculture, industry, and use by municipalities; and where compliance with regulatory requirements may restrict water usage. Estimating the water consumption of heap-leach operations requires an understanding of the heap-leach process itself. The task is fairly complex because, although they all share some common features, each gold heap-leach operation is unique. Also, estimating the water consumption requires a synthesis of several fields of science, including chemistry, ecology, geology, hydrology, and meteorology, as well as consideration of economic factors.

  2. Plant life time management for safe long term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burket, Danes

    2010-01-01

    The topics discussed include LTO (long-term operation) and licensing procedure in general and specifically for the Dukovany NPP, components of an LTO programme, the PLIM (plant life management) concept for Dukovany and Temelin, the LTO implementation project for Dukovany, LTO strategy, LTO risk study, international verification. The Conclusions include the following items: (i) Technical-economic study of Dukovany NPP LTO demonstrates technical feasibility and economic profitability of Dukovany NPP LTO with perspective for up to 60 years of operation. (ii) Safety part of Program for assurance of Dukovany NPP LTO complies with IAEA SALTO recommendations. (iii) Dukovany NPP LTO programme incorporated IAEA SALTO Peer Review Mission recommendations. (iv) LTO Implementation Project for 2009-2015 was approved with major targets to renew operational permission and prepare NPP for operation up to 60 years. (v) Preparation of Temelin NPP LTO programme has been started. (P.A.)

  3. Operational data collection and analysis for nuclear plant life extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Berg, R.M.; Bailey, T.L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes initial work undertaken by the US Department of Energy, through Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to define the operational data necessary for support of nuclear plant life extension (PLEX) programs. This work is being performed in coordination with the Working Group on Plant Life Extension of the US Nuclear Management and Resources Council. The intent of the effort is to use results gained initially from pilot PLEX programs a US BWR and a US PWR to build towards the use of ''PLEX indicators'' by which a plant's readiness for successful life extension can be measured. Another objective of the study was to examine chemistry data in detail to determine how well US plants are collecting, preserving, and trending the chemistry data that is important to PLEX. The methods used to disseminate this data to outside agencies and other utilities were studied. Finally, an analysis was made to determine additional chemistry data needed to support PLEX

  4. 324 Building life cycle dose estimates for planned work

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsman, S.D.; Peterson, C.A.; Thornhill, R.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a tool for use by organizational management teams to plan, manage, and oversee personnel exposures within their organizations. The report encompasses personnel radiation exposures received from activities associated with the B-Cell Cleanout Project, Surveillance and Maintenance Project, the Mk-42 Project, and other minor activities. It is designed to provide verifiable Radiological Performance Reports. The primary area workers receive radiation exposure is the Radiochemical Engineering Complex airlock. Entry to the airlock is necessary for maintenance of cranes and other equipment, and to set up the rail system used to move large pieces of equipment and shipping casks into and out of the airlock. Transfers of equipment and materials from the hot cells in the complex to the airlock are required to allow dose profiles of waste containers, shuffling of waste containers to allow grouting activities to go on, and to allow maintenance of in-cell cranes. Both DOE and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are currently investing in state-of-the-art decontamination equipment. Challenging goals for exposure reduction were established for several broad areas of activity. Exposure estimates and goals developed from these scheduled activities will be compared against actual exposures for scheduled and unscheduled activities that contributed to exposures received by personnel throughout the year. Included in this report are life cycle exposure estimates by calendar year for the B-Cell Cleanout project, a three-year estimate of exposures associated with Surveillance and Maintenance, and known activities for Calendar Year (CY) 1995 associated with several smaller projects. These reports are intended to provide a foundation for future dose estimates, by year, requiring updating as exposure conditions change or new avenues of approach to performing work are developed

  5. 324 Building life cycle dose estimates for planned work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landsman, S.D.; Peterson, C.A.; Thornhill, R.E.

    1995-09-01

    This report describes a tool for use by organizational management teams to plan, manage, and oversee personnel exposures within their organizations. The report encompasses personnel radiation exposures received from activities associated with the B-Cell Cleanout Project, Surveillance and Maintenance Project, the Mk-42 Project, and other minor activities. It is designed to provide verifiable Radiological Performance Reports. The primary area workers receive radiation exposure is the Radiochemical Engineering Complex airlock. Entry to the airlock is necessary for maintenance of cranes and other equipment, and to set up the rail system used to move large pieces of equipment and shipping casks into and out of the airlock. Transfers of equipment and materials from the hot cells in the complex to the airlock are required to allow dose profiles of waste containers, shuffling of waste containers to allow grouting activities to go on, and to allow maintenance of in-cell cranes. Both DOE and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are currently investing in state-of-the-art decontamination equipment. Challenging goals for exposure reduction were established for several broad areas of activity. Exposure estimates and goals developed from these scheduled activities will be compared against actual exposures for scheduled and unscheduled activities that contributed to exposures received by personnel throughout the year. Included in this report are life cycle exposure estimates by calendar year for the B-Cell Cleanout project, a three-year estimate of exposures associated with Surveillance and Maintenance, and known activities for Calendar Year (CY) 1995 associated with several smaller projects. These reports are intended to provide a foundation for future dose estimates, by year, requiring updating as exposure conditions change or new avenues of approach to performing work are developed.

  6. Plant life management for long term operation of light water reactors. Principles and guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The subject of this report was originally suggested by the IAEA Technical Working Group on Life Management of Nuclear Power Plants. It was then approved by the IAEA for work to begin in 2004. The participants in the group felt that it was time to address plant life management and ageing issues from the point of view of long term operation and licence renewal. It is believed that the nuclear power industry will only be able to survive if plant economics are favourable and safety is maintained. Therefore, the issue of ageing and obsolescence has to be addressed from an operational and safety standpoint, but also in the context of plant economics in terms of the cost of electricity production, including initial and recurring capital costs. Use of new technologies, such as advanced in-service inspection and condition based maintenance, should be considered, not only to predict the consequences of ageing and guard against them, but also to monitor equipment performance throughout the lifetime of the plant and to help establish replacement schedules for critical systems, structures and components, and to better estimate the optimum end of the operating licence, which means the end of the nuclear power plant's lifetime. The importance of nuclear power plant life management in facilitating the technical and economic goals of long term operation is presented in this report in terms of the requirement to ensure safe long term supplies of electricity in the most economically competitive way. Safe and reliable operation is discussed in terms of the overall economic benefits when plant life management is implemented. Preconditions for plant life management for long term operation are identified and approaches are reviewed. Plant life management should not be associated only with the extension of the operational lifetime of the nuclear power plant, but with an owner's attitude and a rational approach of the operating company towards running the business economically and safely

  7. Regression estimators for generic health-related quality of life and quality-adjusted life years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Anirban; Manca, Andrea

    2012-01-01

    To develop regression models for outcomes with truncated supports, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) data, and account for features typical of such data such as a skewed distribution, spikes at 1 or 0, and heteroskedasticity. Regression estimators based on features of the Beta distribution. First, both a single equation and a 2-part model are presented, along with estimation algorithms based on maximum-likelihood, quasi-likelihood, and Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. A novel Bayesian quasi-likelihood estimator is proposed. Second, a simulation exercise is presented to assess the performance of the proposed estimators against ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for a variety of HRQoL distributions that are encountered in practice. Finally, the performance of the proposed estimators is assessed by using them to quantify the treatment effect on QALYs in the EVALUATE hysterectomy trial. Overall model fit is studied using several goodness-of-fit tests such as Pearson's correlation test, link and reset tests, and a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The simulation results indicate that the proposed methods are more robust in estimating covariate effects than OLS, especially when the effects are large or the HRQoL distribution has a large spike at 1. Quasi-likelihood techniques are more robust than maximum likelihood estimators. When applied to the EVALUATE trial, all but the maximum likelihood estimators produce unbiased estimates of the treatment effect. One and 2-part Beta regression models provide flexible approaches to regress the outcomes with truncated supports, such as HRQoL, on covariates, after accounting for many idiosyncratic features of the outcomes distribution. This work will provide applied researchers with a practical set of tools to model outcomes in cost-effectiveness analysis.

  8. Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meldrum, J; Nettles-Anderson, S; Heath, G; Macknick, J

    2013-01-01

    This article provides consolidated estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption for the full life cycle of selected electricity generating technologies, which includes component manufacturing, fuel acquisition, processing, and transport, and power plant operation and decommissioning. Estimates were gathered through a broad search of publicly available sources, screened for quality and relevance, and harmonized for methodological differences. Published estimates vary substantially, due in part to differences in production pathways, in defined boundaries, and in performance parameters. Despite limitations to available data, we find that: water used for cooling of thermoelectric power plants dominates the life cycle water use in most cases; the coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel cycles require substantial water per megawatt-hour in most cases; and, a substantial proportion of life cycle water use per megawatt-hour is required for the manufacturing and construction of concentrating solar, geothermal, photovoltaic, and wind power facilities. On the basis of the best available evidence for the evaluated technologies, total life cycle water use appears lowest for electricity generated by photovoltaics and wind, and highest for thermoelectric generation technologies. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research. (letter)

  9. Estimation of fatigue life using electromechanical impedance technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Yee Yan; Soh, Chee Kiong

    2010-04-01

    Fatigue induced damage is often progressive and gradual in nature. Structures subjected to large number of fatigue load cycles will encounter the process of progressive crack initiation, propagation and finally fracture. Monitoring of structural health, especially for the critical components, is therefore essential for early detection of potential harmful crack. Recent advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducer adopting the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique and wave propagation technique are well proven to be effective in incipient damage detection and characterization. Exceptional advantages such as autonomous, real-time and online, remote monitoring may provide a cost-effective alternative to the conventional structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques. In this study, the main focus is to investigate the feasibility of characterizing a propagating fatigue crack in a structure using the EMI technique as well as estimating its remaining fatigue life using the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) approach. Uniaxial cyclic tensile load is applied on a lab-sized aluminum beam up to failure. Progressive shift in admittance signatures measured by the piezo-impedance transducer (PZT patch) corresponding to increase of loading cycles reflects effectiveness of the EMI technique in tracing the process of fatigue damage progression. With the use of LEFM, prediction of the remaining life of the structure at different cycles of loading is possible.

  10. Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

    2008-11-25

    A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

  11. Predicting tool life in turning operations using neural networks and image processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikołajczyk, T.; Nowicki, K.; Bustillo, A.; Yu Pimenov, D.

    2018-05-01

    A two-step method is presented for the automatic prediction of tool life in turning operations. First, experimental data are collected for three cutting edges under the same constant processing conditions. In these experiments, the parameter of tool wear, VB, is measured with conventional methods and the same parameter is estimated using Neural Wear, a customized software package that combines flank wear image recognition and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Second, an ANN model of tool life is trained with the data collected from the first two cutting edges and the subsequent model is evaluated on two different subsets for the third cutting edge: the first subset is obtained from the direct measurement of tool wear and the second is obtained from the Neural Wear software that estimates tool wear using edge images. Although the complete-automated solution, Neural Wear software for tool wear recognition plus the ANN model of tool life prediction, presented a slightly higher error than the direct measurements, it was within the same range and can meet all industrial requirements. These results confirm that the combination of image recognition software and ANN modelling could potentially be developed into a useful industrial tool for low-cost estimation of tool life in turning operations.

  12. Fatigue life estimation on coke drum due to cycle optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siahaan, Andrey Stephan; Ambarita, Himsar; Kawai, Hideki; Daimaruya, Masashi

    2018-04-01

    In the last decade, due to the increasing demand of petroleum product, the necessity for converting the heavy oil are increasing. Thus, demand for installing coke drum in whole world will be increase. The coke drum undergoes the cyclic high temperature and suddenly cooling but in fact is not designed to withstand that kind of cycle, thus the operational life of coke drum is much shorter in comparison to other equipment in oil refinery. Various factors determine in order to improve reliability and minimize the down time, and it is found that the cycle optimization due to cycle, temperature, and pressure have an important role. From this research it is found that the fatigue life of the short cycle is decrease by a half compare to the normal cycle. It also found that in the preheating stage, the stress peak is far exceed the yield strength of coke drum material and fall into plastic deformation. This is happened because of the temperature leap in the preheating stage that cause thermal shock in the upper part of the skirt of the coke drum.

  13. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  14. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  15. Operational safety and reactor life improvements of Kyoto University Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utsuro, M.; Fujita, Y.; Nishihara, H.

    1990-01-01

    Recent important experience in improving the operational safety and life of a reactor are described. The Kyoto University Reactor (KUR) is a 25-year-old 5 MW light water reactor provided with two thermal columns of graphite and heavy water as well as other kinds of experimental facilities. In the graphite thermal column, noticeable amounts of neutron irradiation effects had accumulated in the graphite blocks near the core. Before the possible release of the stored energy, all the graphite blocks in the column were successfully replaced with new blocks using the opportunity provided by the installation of a liquid deuterium cold neutron source in the column. At the same time, special seal mechanisms were provided for essential improvements to the problem of radioactive argon production in the column. In the heavy-water thermal column we have accomplished the successful repair of a slow leak of heavy water through a thin instrumentation tube failure. The repair work included the removal and reconstructions of the lead and graphite shielding layers and welding of the instrumentation tube under radiation fields. Several mechanical components in the reactor cooling system were also exchanged for new components with improved designs and materials. On-line data logging of almost all instrumentation signals is continuously performed with a high speed data analysis system to diagnose operational conditions of the reactor. Furthermore, through detailed investigations on critical components, operational safety during further extended reactor life will be supported by well scheduled maintenance programs

  16. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Heat kernel estimates for pseudodifferential operators, fractional Laplacians and Dirichlet-to-Neumann operators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gimperlein, Heiko; Grubb, Gerd

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to establish upper and lower estimates for the integral kernel of the semigroup exp(−t P) associated to a classical, strongly elliptic pseudodifferential operator P of positive order on a closed manifold. The Poissonian bounds generalize those obtained for perturbat......The purpose of this article is to establish upper and lower estimates for the integral kernel of the semigroup exp(−t P) associated to a classical, strongly elliptic pseudodifferential operator P of positive order on a closed manifold. The Poissonian bounds generalize those obtained...... for perturbations of fractional powers of the Laplacian. In the selfadjoint case, extensions to t∈C+  are studied. In particular, our results apply to the Dirichlet-to-Neumann semigroup....

  18. Mixed Estimates for Degenerate Multilinear Operators Associated to Simplexes

    OpenAIRE

    Kesler, Robert

    2013-01-01

    We prove that the degenerate trilinear operator $C_3^{-1,1,1}$ given by the formula \\begin{eqnarray*} C_3^{-1,1,1}(f_1, f_2, f_3)(x)=\\int_{x_1 < x_2 < x_3} \\hat{f_1}(x_1) \\hat{f_2}(x_2) \\hat{f_3}(x_3) e^{2\\pi i x (-x_1 + x_2 + x_3)} dx_1dx_2 dx_3 \\end{eqnarray*} satisfies the new estimates \\begin{eqnarray*} ||C_3^{-1,1,1}(f_1, f_2, f_3)||_{\\frac{1}{\\frac{1}{p_1}+\\frac{1}{p_2}+\\frac{1}{p_3}}} \\lesssim_{p_1, p_2, p_3} ||\\hat{f}_1||_{p^\\prime_1} ||f_2||_{p_2}||f_3||_{p_3} \\end{eqnarray*} for all...

  19. Integration of plant life management in operation and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutin, Jean-Pierre

    2002-01-01

    Full text: 1 - INTRODUCTION. Electricite de France is now operating 58 PWR nuclear power plants which produce 75% of french electricity. Besides maintaining safety and availability on a routine basis, it is outmost important to protect the investment. Indeed, such an asset is a tremendous advantage just as the company is going to face the new european electricity market. That is the reason why EDF is devoting important effort to implement ageing management as an integral part of operation and maintenance programs. But it must be recognized that NPP lifetime is not threatened only by component-related problems: other less technical issues must be seriously considered like industrial support, information system, skilled people, public acceptance, etc. 2 - LIFE MANAGEMENT POLICY. In France, there is no limited licensing period for NPPs. The life management policy of nuclear power plants is based on three principles: - safe and cost-effective operation, looking for excellence in daily activities, with an effective experience feedback organisation taking advantage of the high level of standardization of the units, - every ten years, a new set of safety standards, a complete review of each facility and an upgrading of its safety level through appropriate modifications while maintaining unit standardization in all the fleet, - a Life Management Program, at corporate level, which permanently scrutinizes operation and maintenance activities to identify decisions which could impair plant lifetime and which surveys research and development programs related to ageing phenomenon understanding. 3 - INTEGRATION OF LIFETIME CONCERN IN O and M ACTIVITIES. It is outmost important to take in account lifetime concern in daily operation and maintenance activities and this must be done as early as possible in plant life. Even though sophisticated assessments require engineering capacity, many good ideas may arise from plant staff. For that reason, increasing lifetime awareness of plant

  20. Operational considerations for the Space Station Life Science Glovebox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Daryl N.; Bosley, John J.; Vogelsong, Kristofer; Schnepp, Tery A.; Phillips, Robert W.

    1988-01-01

    The U.S. Laboratory (USL) module on Space Station will house a biological research facility for multidisciplinary research using living plant and animal specimens. Environmentally closed chambers isolate the specimen habitats, but specimens must be removed from these chambers during research procedures as well as while the chambers are being cleaned. An enclosed, sealed Life Science Glovebox (LSG) is the only locale in the USL where specimens can be accessed by crew members. This paper discusses the key science, engineering and operational considerations and constraints involving the LSG, such as bioisolation, accessibility, and functional versatility.

  1. Demirjian approach of dental age estimation: Abridged for operator ease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Vanshika; Kapoor, Priyanka; Miglani, Ragini

    2016-01-01

    Present times have seen an alarming increase in incidence of crimes by juveniles and of mass destruction that Highlight the preponderance of individual age estimation. Of the numerous techniques employed for age assessment, dental age estimation (DAE) and its correlation with chronological age (CA) have been of great significance in the recent past. Demirjian system, considered as gold standard in DAE is a simple and convenient method for DAE, though,, although, referring to multiple tables make it cumbersome and less eco friendly due to excessive paper load. The present study was aimed to develop a comprehensive chart (DAEcc) inclusive of all Demirjian tables and developmental stages of teeth and also to as well as to test the operator ease of 50 undergraduate dental students in performing DAE using this chart. The study was performed in two stages, wherein the first stage was aimed at formulation of the comprehensive chart (DAE CC ) which included pictorial representation of calcification stages, the Federation Dentaire Internationale notation of the teeth, and the corresponding scores for each stage with a concluding column at the end to enter the total score. The second stage assessed the applicability of the ease of DAE by DAE CC , whereby fifty 2 nd year BDS students were asked to trace the calcification stages of the seven permanent left mandibular teeth on a panorex, identify the correct stage, assign the corresponding score, and to calculate the total score for subsequent dental age assessment. showed that average time taken by the students for tracing seven mandibular teeth was 5 min and for assessment of dental age was 7 min. The total time taken for DAE was approximately 12 min, thus making the procedure less time consuming. Hence, this study proposes the use of DAEcc for age estimation due to ease in comprehension and execution of Demirjian system.

  2. Revised estimates for ozone reduction by shuttle operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, A. E.

    1978-01-01

    Previous calculations by five different modeling groups of the effect of space shuttle operations on the ozone layer yielded an estimate of 0.2 percent ozone reduction for the Northern Hemisphere at 60 launches per year. Since these calculations were made, the accepted rate constant for the reaction between hydroperoxyl and nitric oxide to yield hydroxyl and nitrogen dioxide, HO2 + NO yields OH + NO2, was revised upward by more than an order of magnitude, with a resultant increase in the predicted ozone reduction for chlorofluoromethanes by a factor of approximately 2. New calculations of the shuttle effect were made with use of the new rate constant data, again by five different modeling groups. The new value of the shuttle effect on the ozone layer was found to be 0.25 percent. The increase resulting from the revised rate constant is considerably less for space shuttle operations than for chlorofluoromethane production, because the new rate constant also increases the calculated rate of downward transport of shuttle exhaust products out of the stratosphere.

  3. Estimating increment-decrement life tables with multiple covariates from panel data: the case of active life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land, K C; Guralnik, J M; Blazer, D G

    1994-05-01

    A fundamental limitation of current multistate life table methodology-evident in recent estimates of active life expectancy for the elderly-is the inability to estimate tables from data on small longitudinal panels in the presence of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression models for simple state spaces. We argue that Markov panel regression procedures can be used to provide smoothed or graduated group-specific estimates of transition probabilities that are more stable across short age intervals than those computed directly from sample data. We then join these estimates with increment-decrement life table methods to compute group-specific total, active, and dependent life expectancy estimates. To illustrate the methods, we describe an empirical application to the estimation of such life expectancies specific to sex, race, and education (years of school completed) for a longitudinal panel of elderly persons. We find that education extends both total life expectancy and active life expectancy. Education thus may serve as a powerful social protective mechanism delaying the onset of health problems at older ages.

  4. Regression to fuzziness method for estimation of remaining useful life in power plant components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Grelle, Austin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

    2014-10-01

    Mitigation of severe accidents in power plants requires the reliable operation of all systems and the on-time replacement of mechanical components. Therefore, the continuous surveillance of power systems is a crucial concern for the overall safety, cost control, and on-time maintenance of a power plant. In this paper a methodology called regression to fuzziness is presented that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of power plant components. The RUL is defined as the difference between the time that a measurement was taken and the estimated failure time of that component. The methodology aims to compensate for a potential lack of historical data by modeling an expert's operational experience and expertise applied to the system. It initially identifies critical degradation parameters and their associated value range. Once completed, the operator's experience is modeled through fuzzy sets which span the entire parameter range. This model is then synergistically used with linear regression and a component's failure point to estimate the RUL. The proposed methodology is tested on estimating the RUL of a turbine (the basic electrical generating component of a power plant) in three different cases. Results demonstrate the benefits of the methodology for components for which operational data is not readily available and emphasize the significance of the selection of fuzzy sets and the effect of knowledge representation on the predicted output. To verify the effectiveness of the methodology, it was benchmarked against the data-based simple linear regression model used for predictions which was shown to perform equal or worse than the presented methodology. Furthermore, methodology comparison highlighted the improvement in estimation offered by the adoption of appropriate of fuzzy sets for parameter representation.

  5. Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Chao; Jain, Gaurav; Tamirisa, Prabhakar; Gorka, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction. • A state projection scheme is derived for capacity estimation. • The Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used for the RUL prediction. • Results with 10 years’ continuous cycling data verify the effectiveness of the method. - Abstract: Reliability of lithium-ion (Li-ion) rechargeable batteries used in implantable medical devices has been recognized as of high importance from a broad range of stakeholders, including medical device manufacturers, regulatory agencies, physicians, and patients. To ensure Li-ion batteries in these devices operate reliably, it is important to be able to assess the capacity of Li-ion battery and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) throughout the whole life-time. This paper presents an integrated method for the capacity estimation and RUL prediction of Li-ion battery used in implantable medical devices. A state projection scheme from the author’s previous study is used for the capacity estimation. Then, based on the capacity estimates, the Gauss–Hermite particle filter technique is used to project the capacity fade to the end-of-service (EOS) value (or the failure limit) for the RUL prediction. Results of 10 years’ continuous cycling test on Li-ion prismatic cells in the lab suggest that the proposed method achieves good accuracy in the capacity estimation and captures the uncertainty in the RUL prediction. Post-explant weekly cycling data obtained from field cells with 4–7 implant years further verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in the capacity estimation

  6. Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis for the life extension estimate of the high flux isotope reactor vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in the nil ductility temperature (NDT). This temperature is sometimes referred to as the brittle-ductile transition temperature (DBT) for fracture. The life extension of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics. A new method of fracture probability calculation is presented in this paper. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest) is used to determine the life of the vessel. The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. It is then followed by using fracture mechanics to project the safe reactor operation time from the time of the satisfactory hydrostatic test. The life extension calculation provides the following information on the remaining life of the reactor as a function of the NDT increase: (1) the life of the vessel is determined by the probability of vessel fracture as a result of hydrotest at several hydrotest pressures and vessel embrittlement conditions, (2) the hydrotest time interval vs the NDT increase rate, and (3) the hydrotest pressure vs the NDT increase rate. It is understood that the use of a complete range of uncertainties of the NDT increase is equivalent to the entire range of radiation damage that can be experienced by the vessel steel. From the numerical values for the probabilities of the vessel fracture as a result of hydrotest, it is estimated that the reactor vessel life can be extended up to 50 EFPY (100 MW) with the minimum vessel operating temperature equal to 85 degrees F

  7. Wind turbine blade life-time assessment model for preventive planning of operation and maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2014-01-01

    Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

  8. Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florian, Mihai; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2015-01-01

    Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M) practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair...... of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O......&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law...

  9. Life cycle management of french operating nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valibus, L.; Loriette, Ph.

    1998-01-01

    The PWR units of the EDF generation capacity in operation are young. They represent a technical and financial asset with a strategic significance both for the company and for France. According to regulations, even if the safety reports take into account a 40-year lifetime for the NSSS, the French regulations do not specify a time limit for the operation of the facilities according to the plant authorization decree. The Safety Authorities may, at any time require another safety re-examination. In fact, it was decided to carry out unit safety periodic reviews according to types of series. A program was set up in order to achieve regular assessments on the aging of the facilities. This program, combining all the skills within EDF and the manufacturers, is a guarantee for the coherence and the exhaustivity of the consideration as it relies on a great number of evaluation areas. It seems to day that under operational conditions, an appropriate surveillance and maintenance of components the 900 and 1300 MWe units should be able to fulfill the expected duty for a 40-year design life and very likely even longer. (author)

  10. Lithium-ion Battery Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Laayouj

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract—Prognostic activity deals with prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL of physical systems based on their actual health state and their usage conditions. RUL estimation gives operators a potent tool in decision making by quantifying how much time is left until functionality is lost. In addition, it can be used to improve the characterization of the material proprieties that govern damage propagation for the structure being monitored. RUL can be estimated by using three main approaches, namely model-based, data-driven and hybrid approaches. The prognostics methods used later in this paper are hybrid and data-driven approaches, which employ the Particle Filter in the first one and the autoregressive integrated moving average in the second. The performance of the suggested approaches is evaluated in a comparative study on data collected from lithium-ion battery of hybrid electric vehicle.

  11. Emergency end of life operations for CNES remote sensing satellites—Management and operational process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Régis; Alby, Fernand; Costes, Thierry; Dejoie, Joël; Delmas, Dominique-Roland; Delobette, Damien; Gibek, Isabelle; Gleyzes, Alain; Masson, Françoise; Meyer, Jean-Renaud; Moreau, Agathe; Perret, Lionel; Riclet, François; Ruiz, Hélène; Schiavon, Françoise; Spizzi, Pierre; Viallefont, Pierre; Villaret, Colette

    2012-10-01

    The French Space Agency (CNES) is currently operating thirteen satellites among which five remote sensing satellites. This fleet is composed of two civilian (SPOT) and three military (HELIOS) satellites and it has been recently completed by the first PLEIADES satellite which is devoted to both civil and military purposes. The CNES operation board decided to appoint a Working Group (WG) in order to anticipate and tackle issues related to the emergency End Of Life (EOL) operations due to unexpected on-board events affecting the satellite. This is of particular interest in the context of the French Law on Space Operations (LSO), entered in force on Dec. 2010, which states that any satellite operator must demonstrate its capability to control the space vehicle whatever the mission phase from the launch up to the EOL. Indeed, after several years in orbit the satellites may be affected by on-board anomalies which could damage the implementation of EOL operations, i.e. orbital manoeuvres or platform disposal. Even if automatic recovery actions ensure autonomous reconfigurations on redundant equipment, i.e. setting for instance the satellite into a safe mode, it is crucial to anticipate the consequences of failures of every equipment and functions necessary for the EOL operations. For this purpose, the WG has focused on each potential anomaly by analysing: its emergency level, as well as the EOL operations potentially inhibited by the failure and the needs of on-board software workarounds… The main contribution of the WG consisted in identifying a particular satellite configuration called "minimal Withdrawal From Service (WFS) configuration". This configuration corresponds to an operational status which involves a redundancy necessary for the EOL operations. Therefore as soon as a satellite reaches this state, a dedicated steering committee is activated and decides of the future of the satellite with respect to three options: a/. the satellite is considered safe and can

  12. Anomaly Detection and Life Pattern Estimation for the Elderly Based on Categorization of Accumulated Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Taketoshi; Ishino, Takahito; Noguchi, Hiroshi; Shimosaka, Masamichi; Sato, Tomomasa

    2011-06-01

    We propose a life pattern estimation method and an anomaly detection method for elderly people living alone. In our observation system for such people, we deploy some pyroelectric sensors into the house and measure the person's activities all the time in order to grasp the person's life pattern. The data are transferred successively to the operation center and displayed to the nurses in the center in a precise way. Then, the nurses decide whether the data is the anomaly or not. In the system, the people whose features in their life resemble each other are categorized as the same group. Anomalies occurred in the past are shared in the group and utilized in the anomaly detection algorithm. This algorithm is based on "anomaly score." The "anomaly score" is figured out by utilizing the activeness of the person. This activeness is approximately proportional to the frequency of the sensor response in a minute. The "anomaly score" is calculated from the difference between the activeness in the present and the past one averaged in the long term. Thus, the score is positive if the activeness in the present is higher than the average in the past, and the score is negative if the value in the present is lower than the average. If the score exceeds a certain threshold, it means that an anomaly event occurs. Moreover, we developed an activity estimation algorithm. This algorithm estimates the residents' basic activities such as uprising, outing, and so on. The estimation is shown to the nurses with the "anomaly score" of the residents. The nurses can understand the residents' health conditions by combining these two information.

  13. Residual life estimation of electrical insulation system for rotating equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vashishtha, Y.D.; Gupta, A.K.; Bhattacharyya, A.K.; Verma, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    Residual life assessment gains significance towards the end of designed life for granting plant life extensions and resource planning for costly equipment replacement. A critical review of all the diagnostic techniques presently used to assess either health of insulation system or to infer qualitatively the remaining life for rotating machines is presented. However more emphasis is required on developing quantitative methods. This paper also formulates the experimental plan for progressively censored ageing tests, measurement of partial discharge parameters, micro-structural study for delamination and electrical tree growth and measurement of electrical breakdown strength. Partial discharge (PD) patterns, electrical tree growth and time to failure data shall be taken as training set for the neural network learning which can be useful to predict residual life with only one candidate parameter i.e. PD patterns. (author). 9 refs

  14. Evaluation of residual life of material of power plant construction elements after long-term operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osasyuk, V.V.

    1989-01-01

    Existing methods are analyzed for estimation of residual resource of elements of constructions, working in creep conditions. A suggested and experimentally verified new method of residual durability forecasting is described permitting the value of the supplementary resource to be specified according to the real state of the material after preoperation. Evaluation results are given for residual life of steam lines received by different methods and advantages of the technique proposed are shown. Reliability of the new technique is confirmed by steam line operation at thermal power plants

  15. Estimating pesticide emissions for life cycle assessment of agricultural products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Røpke, Inge

    2004-01-01

    As the first country in Europe Denmark almost 2 years ago established an official center for Life Cycle Assessments and life cycle approaches as an element of the national IPP (Integrated Product Policy). The Danish EPA lends financial support to this important initiative, the aim of which is to: 1....... promote the use of Life Cycle Assessment and other product-oriented environmental tools in companies, 2. support companies and other in using environmental assessment of products and services, 3. ensure that the effort in the LCA area is based on a solid and scientific basis, and 4. maintain the well...... evaluation finished in September 2004. Important learnings for all who are engaged in dissemination of life cycle thinking in industry will be presented....

  16. Machine Learning Applications in Estimating Transformer Loss of Life

    OpenAIRE

    Majzoobi, Alireza; Mahoor, Mohsen; Khodaei, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Transformer life assessment and failure diagnostics have always been important problems for electric utility companies. Ambient temperature and load profile are the main factors which affect aging of the transformer insulation, and consequently, the transformer lifetime. The IEEE Std. C57.911995 provides a model for calculating the transformer loss of life based on ambient temperature and transformer's loading. In this paper, this standard is used to develop a data-driven static model for hou...

  17. Energy efficiency estimation of a steam powered LNG tanker using normal operating data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinha Rajendra Prasad

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A ship’s energy efficiency performance is generally estimated by conducting special sea trials of few hours under very controlled environmental conditions of calm sea, standard draft and optimum trim. This indicator is then used as the benchmark for future reference of the ship’s Energy Efficiency Performance (EEP. In practice, however, for greater part of operating life the ship operates in conditions which are far removed from original sea trial conditions and therefore comparing energy performance with benchmark performance indicator is not truly valid. In such situations a higher fuel consumption reading from the ship fuel meter may not be a true indicator of poor machinery performance or dirty underwater hull. Most likely, the reasons for higher fuel consumption may lie in factors other than the condition of hull and machinery, such as head wind, current, low load operations or incorrect trim [1]. Thus a better and more accurate approach to determine energy efficiency of the ship attributable only to main machinery and underwater hull condition will be to filter out the influence of all spurious and non-standard operating conditions from the ship’s fuel consumption [2]. The author in this paper identifies parameters of a suitable filter to be used on the daily report data of a typical LNG tanker of 33000 kW shaft power to remove effects of spurious and non-standard ship operations on its fuel consumption. The filtered daily report data has been then used to estimate actual fuel efficiency of the ship and compared with the sea trials benchmark performance. Results obtained using data filter show closer agreement with the benchmark EEP than obtained from the monthly mini trials . The data filtering method proposed in this paper has the advantage of using the actual operational data of the ship and thus saving cost of conducting special sea trials to estimate ship EEP. The agreement between estimated results and special sea trials EEP is

  18. Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

  19. Fatigue Life Estimation of Medium-Carbon Steel with Different Surface Roughness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changyou Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Medium-carbon steel is commonly used for the rail, wire ropes, tire cord, cold heading, forging steels, cold finished steel bars, machinable steel and so on. Its fatigue behavior analysis and fatigue life estimation play an important role in the machinery industry. In this paper, the estimation of fatigue life of medium-carbon steel with different surface roughness using established S-N and P-S-N curves is presented. To estimate the fatigue life, the effect of the average surface roughness on the fatigue life of medium-carbon steel has been investigated using 75 fatigue tests in three groups with average surface roughness (Ra: 0.4 μm, 0.8 μm, and 1.6 μm, respectively. S-N curves and P-S-N curves have been established based on the fatigue tests. The fatigue life of medium-carbon steel is then estimated based on Tanaka-Mura crack initiation life model, the crack propagation life model using Paris law, and material constants of the S-N curves. Six more fatigue tests have been conducted to validate the presented fatigue life estimation formulation. The experimental results have shown that the presented model could estimate well the mean fatigue life of medium-carbon steel with different surface roughness.

  20. Threat aircraft intent estimation in joint air defence within operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available is required to determine the intent of an aircraft to assist in classification of airborne threats/targets. Throughout all military operations Intent is used to plan and execute operations. Knowledge of the enemy’s Intent will be useful to predict his actions...

  1. Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

    2011-07-01

    Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

  2. Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

  3. One method for life time estimation of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vîlceanu, Fl; Iancu, C.

    2016-08-01

    Rehabilitation of outdated equipment with lifetime expired, or in the ultimate life period, together with high cost investments for their replacement, makes rational the efforts made to extend their life. Rehabilitation involves checking operational safety based on relevant expertise of metal structures supporting effective resistance and assessing the residual lifetime. The bucket wheel machine for coal constitute basic machine within deposits of coal of power plants. The estimate of remaining life can be done by checking the loading on the most stressed subassembly by Finite Element Analysis on a welding detail. The paper presents step-by-step the method of calculus applied in order to establishing the residual lifetime of a bucket wheel machine for coal moving using non-destructive methods of study (fatigue cracking analysis + FEA). In order to establish the actual state of machine and areas subject to study, was done FEA of this mining equipment, performed on the geometric model of mechanical analyzed structures, with powerful CAD/FEA programs. By applying the method it can be calculated residual lifetime, by extending the results from the most stressed area of the equipment to the entire machine, and thus saving time and money from expensive replacements.

  4. Load Identification of Offshore Platform for Fatigue Life Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perisic, Nevena; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Tygesen, Ulf T.

    2014-01-01

    of the structure and the discrete Kalman filter which recursively estimates unknown states of the system in real time. As a test-case, the algorithm is designed to estimate the equivalent total loading forces of the structure. The loads are estimated from noised displacement measurements of a single location...... on the topside of the offshore structure. The method is validated using simulated data for two wave loading cases: regular and irregular wave loadings.......The lifetime of an offshore platform is typically governed by accumulated fatigue damage. Thus, the load time history is an essential parameter for prediction of the lifetime of the structure and its components. Consequently, monitoring of structural loads is of special importance in relation to re...

  5. Estimation of a monotone percentile residual life function under random censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Pereira, Alba M; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a new estimator of a percentile residual life function with censored data under a monotonicity constraint. Specifically, it is assumed that the percentile residual life is a decreasing function. This assumption is useful when estimating the percentile residual life of units, which degenerate with age. We establish a law of the iterated logarithm for the proposed estimator, and its n-equivalence to the unrestricted estimator. The asymptotic normal distribution of the estimator and its strong approximation to a Gaussian process are also established. We investigate the finite sample performance of the monotone estimator in an extensive simulation study. Finally, data from a clinical trial in primary biliary cirrhosis of the liver are analyzed with the proposed methods. One of the conclusions of our work is that the restricted estimator may be much more efficient than the unrestricted one. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Argument estimates of certain multivalent functions involving a linear operator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nak Eun Cho

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to derive some argument properties of certain multivalent functions in the open unit disk involving a linear operator. We also investigate their integral preserving property in a sector.

  7. Estimating the Costs of Military Operations in Iraq

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gilmore, J. M

    2007-01-01

    This testimony, given by J. Michael Gilmore, Assistant Director for National Security, before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate, discusses the costs of operations in the Iraq theater and issues associated...

  8. Quality estimation methods used in product life cycle

    OpenAIRE

    M. Dudek-Burlikowska; D. Szewieczek

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: A new approach to quality control in production company with usage of quality research methods has been presented.Design/methodology/approach: The possibility of usage of quality research methods are connected with continuous quality improvement of pre-production, production and after-production spheres of organization. Interdependence of the quality research methods and product life cycle has been taken into account.Findings: At the present time the enterprises should integrate qua...

  9. Intelligent Prognostic Framework for Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Photovoltaic Module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Laayouj

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available All industrial systems and machines are subjected to degradation processes, which can be related to the operating conditions. This degradation can cause unwanted stops at any time and major maintenance work sometimes. The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL is an important challenge in condition-based maintenance. Prognostic activity allows estimating the RUL before failure occurs and triggering actions to mitigate faults in time when needed. In this study, a new smart prognostic method for photovoltaic module health degradation was developed based on two approaches to achieve more accurate predictions: online diagnosis and data-driven prognosis. This framework of forecasting integrates the strengths of real-time monitoring in the first approach and relevant vector machine in the second. The results show that the proposed method is plausible due to its good prediction of RUL and can be effectively applied to many systems for monitoring and prognostics.

  10. Life time estimation of SSCs for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Choi, Byung-Seon

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► This paper suggests the expectation algorithm of SSCs life time for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities. ► The life time of SSCs can be estimated by using fuzzy theory. ► The estimated results depend on the membership functions and performance characteristic functions. - Abstract: This paper suggests the estimation algorithm for life time of structure, system and components (SSCs) for decommissioning safety of nuclear facilities using the performance data of linguistic languages and fuzzy theory. The fuzzy estimation algorithm of life time can be easily applicable but the estimated results depend on the relevant membership functions and performance characteristic functions. This method will be expected to be very useful for maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear facilities’ SSCs as a safety assessment tool.

  11. Life Estimation of PWR Steam Generator U-Tubes Subjected to Foreign Object-Induced Fretting Wear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Jong Chull; Jhung, Myung Jo; Kim, Woong Sik; Kim, Hho Jung

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to the remaining life prediction of steam generator (SG) U-tubes, which are intact initially, subjected to fretting-wear degradation due to the interaction between a vibrating tube and a foreign object in operating nuclear power plants. The operating SG shell-side flow field conditions are obtained from a three-dimensional SG flow calculation using the ATHOS3 code. Modal analyses are performed for the finite element models of U-tubes to get the natural frequency, corresponding mode shape, and participation factor. The wear rate of a U-tube caused by a foreign object is calculated using the Archard formula, and the remaining life of the tube is predicted. Also discussed in this study are the effects of the tube modal characteristics, external flow velocity, and tube internal pressure on the estimated results of the remaining life of the tube

  12. Vacuum expectation values for four-fermion operators. Model estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhitnitskij, A.R.

    1985-01-01

    Some simple models (a system with a heavy quark, the rarefied insatanton gas) are used to investigate the problem of factorizability. Characteristics of vacuum fluctuations responsible for saturation of four-fermion vacuum expectation values which are known phenomenologically are discussed. A qualitative agreement between the model and phenomenologic;l estimates has been noted

  13. Vacuum expectation values of four-fermion operators. Model estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhitnitskii, A.R.

    1985-01-01

    Simple models (a system with a heavy quark, a rarefied instanton gas) are used to study problems of factorizability. A discussion is given of the characteristics of the vacuum fluctuations responsible for saturation of the phenomenologically known four-fermion vacuum expectation values. Qualitative agreement between the model and phenomenological estimates is observed

  14. Modeling of the fatigue damage accumulation processes in the material of NPP design units under thermomechanical unstationary effects. Estimation of spent life and forecast of residual life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriushin, A.I.; Korotkikh, Yu.G.; Gorodov, G.F.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: The estimation problems of spent life and forecast of residual life of NPP equipment design units, operated at unstationary thermal force loads are considered. These loads are, as a rule, unregular and cause rotation of main stress tensor platforms of the most loaded zones of structural elements and viscoelastic plastic deformation of material in the places of stresses concentrations. The existing engineering approaches to the damages accumulation processes calculation in the material of structural units, their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. For the processes of fatigue damages accumulation a model is proposed, which allows to take into account the unregular pattern of deformation multiaxiality of stressed state, rotation of main platforms, non-linear summation of damages at the loading mode change. The model in based on the equations of damaged medium mechanics, including the equations of viscoplastic deformation of the material and evolutionary equations of damages accumulation. The algorithms of spent life estimation and residual life forecast of the controlled equipment and systems zones are made on the bases of the given model by the known real history of loading, which is determined by real model of NPP operation. The results of numerical experiments on the basis of given model for various processes of thermal force loads and their comparison with experimental results are presented. (author)

  15. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  16. Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Wesley; Thurston, Marland; Hood, Christopher

    1995-01-01

    The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

  17. Estimate the thermomechanical fatigue life of two flip chip packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pash, R.A.; Ullah, H.S.; Khan, M.Z.

    2005-01-01

    The continuing demand towards high density and low profile integrated circuit packaging has accelerated the development of flip chip structures as used in direct chip attach (DCA) technology, ball grid array (BOA) and chip scale package (CSP). In such structures the most widely used flip chip interconnects are solder joints. The reliability of flip chip structures largely depends on the reliability of solder joints. In this work solder joint fatigue life prediction for two chip scale packages is carried out. Elasto-plastic deformation behavior of the solder was simulated using ANSYS. Two dimensional plain strain finite element models were developed for each package to numerically compute the stress and total strain of the solder joints under temperature cycling. These stress and strain values are then used to predict the solder joint lifetime through modified Coffin Manson equation. The effect of solder joint's distance from edge of silicon die on life of the package is explored. The solder joint fatigue response is modeled for a typical temperature cycling of -60 to 140 degree C. (author)

  18. Developing operator capacity estimates for supervisory control of autonomous vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, M L; Guerlain, Stephanie

    2007-02-01

    This study examined operators' capacity to successfully reallocate highly autonomous in-flight missiles to time-sensitive targets while performing secondary tasks of varying complexity. Regardless of the level of autonomy for unmanned systems, humans will be necessarily involved in the mission planning, higher level operation, and contingency interventions, otherwise known as human supervisory control. As a result, more research is needed that addresses the impact of dynamic decision support systems that support rapid planning and replanning in time-pressured scenarios, particularly on operator workload. A dual screen simulation that allows a single operator the ability to monitor and control 8, 12, or 16 missiles through high level replanning was tested on 42 U.S. Navy personnel. The most significant finding was that when attempting to control 16 missiles, participants' performance on three separate objective performance metrics and their situation awareness were significantly degraded. These results mirror studies of air traffic control that demonstrate a similar decline in performance for controllers managing 17 aircraft as compared with those managing only 10 to 11 aircraft. Moreover, the results suggest that a 70% utilization (percentage busy time) score is a valid threshold for predicting significant performance decay and could be a generalizable metric that can aid in manning predictions. This research is relevant to human supervisory control of networked military and commercial unmanned vehicles in the air, on the ground, and on and under the water.

  19. Approach to Operational Experimental Estimation of Static Stresses of Elements of Mechanical Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedov, A. V.; Kalinchuk, V. V.; Bocharova, O. V.

    2018-01-01

    The evaluation of static stresses and strength of units and components is a crucial task for increasing reliability in the operation of vehicles and equipment, to prevent emergencies, especially in structures made of metal and composite materials. At the stage of creation and commissioning of structures to control the quality of manufacturing of individual elements and components, diagnostic control methods are widely used. They are acoustic, ultrasonic, X-ray, radiation methods and others. The using of these methods to control the residual life and the degree of static stresses of units and parts during operation is fraught with great difficulties both in methodology and in instrumentation. In this paper, the authors propose an effective approach of operative control of the degree of static stresses of units and parts of mechanical structures which are in working condition, based on recording the changing in the surface wave properties of a system consisting of a sensor and a controlled environment (unit, part). The proposed approach of low-frequency diagnostics of static stresses presupposes a new adaptive-spectral analysis of a surface wave created by external action (impact). It is possible to estimate implicit stresses of structures in the experiment due to this approach.

  20. Older adults' beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy: a cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bynum Debra L

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimates of life expectancy assist physicians and patients in medical decision-making. The time-delayed benefits for many medical treatments make an older adult's life expectancy estimate particularly important for physicians. The purpose of this study is to assess older adults' beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy. Methods We performed a mixed qualitative-quantitative cross-sectional study in which 116 healthy adults aged 70+ were recruited from two local retirement communities. We interviewed them regarding their beliefs about physician-estimated life expectancy in the context of a larger study on cancer screening beliefs. Semi-structured interviews of 80 minutes average duration were performed in private locations convenient to participants. Demographic characteristics as well as cancer screening beliefs and beliefs about life expectancy were measured. Two independent researchers reviewed the open-ended responses and recorded the most common themes. The research team resolved disagreements by consensus. Results This article reports the life-expectancy results portion of the larger study. The study group (n = 116 was comprised of healthy, well-educated older adults, with almost a third over 85 years old, and none meeting criteria for dementia. Sixty-four percent (n = 73 felt that their physicians could not correctly estimate their life expectancy. Sixty-six percent (n = 75 wanted their physicians to talk with them about their life expectancy. The themes that emerged from our study indicate that discussions of life expectancy could help older adults plan for the future, maintain open communication with their physicians, and provide them knowledge about their medical conditions. Conclusion The majority of the healthy older adults in this study were open to discussions about life expectancy in the context of discussing cancer screening tests, despite awareness that their physicians' estimates could be inaccurate

  1. NUMATH: a nuclear-material-holdup estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichinsky, A.M.

    1981-01-01

    A computer program, NUMATH (Nuclear Material Holdup Estimator), has been developed to permit inventory estimation in vessels involved in unit operations and chemical processes. This program has been implemented in an operating nuclear fuel processing plant. NUMATH's purpose is to provide steady-state composition estimates for material residing in process vessels until representative samples can be obtained and chemical analyses can be performed. Since these compositions are used for inventory estimation, the results are determined for and cataloged in container-oriented files. The estimated compositions represent material collected in applicable vessels-including consideration for material previously acknowledged in these vessels. The program utilizes process measurements and simple material balance models to estimate material holdups and distribution within unit operations. During simulated run testing, NUMATH-estimated inventories typically produced material balances within 7% of the associated measured material balances for uranium and within 16% of the associated, measured material balance for thorium during steady-state process operation

  2. Operator Bias in the Estimation of Arc Efficiency in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fredrik Sikström

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the operator bias in the measurement process of arc efficiency in stationary direct current electrode negative gas tungsten arc welding is discussed. An experimental study involving 15 operators (enough to reach statistical significance has been carried out with the purpose to estimate the arc efficiency from a specific procedure for calorimetric experiments. The measurement procedure consists of three manual operations which introduces operator bias in the measurement process. An additional relevant experiment highlights the consequences of estimating the arc voltage by measuring the potential between the terminals of the welding power source instead of measuring the potential between the electrode contact tube and the workpiece. The result of the study is a statistical evaluation of the operator bias influence on the estimate, showing that operator bias is negligible in the estimate considered here. On the contrary the consequences of neglecting welding leads voltage drop results in a significant under estimation of the arc efficiency.

  3. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

    2015-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in

  4. Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Alaska Airlines Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Alaska Airlines. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that between 8,000 and 12,000 gallons of fuel and 900 to 1,300 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Alaska Airlines in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Alaska TASAR requests peaked at four to eight requests per hour in high-altitude Seattle center sectors south of Seattle-Tacoma airport.

  5. Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Virgin America Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

  6. Dispersive estimates for massive Dirac operators in dimension two

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdoğan, M. Burak; Green, William R.; Toprak, Ebru

    2018-05-01

    We study the massive two dimensional Dirac operator with an electric potential. In particular, we show that the t-1 decay rate holds in the L1 →L∞ setting if the threshold energies are regular. We also show these bounds hold in the presence of s-wave resonances at the threshold. We further show that, if the threshold energies are regular then a faster decay rate of t-1(log ⁡ t) - 2 is attained for large t, at the cost of logarithmic spatial weights. The free Dirac equation does not satisfy this bound due to the s-wave resonances at the threshold energies.

  7. Determination of the remaining operational life of power plant components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eiden, H.; Vorwerk, K.; Graeff, D.; Hoff, E.

    1983-01-01

    The proceedings volume presents, in full wording, eight papers read at a TUEV Rheinland meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, in August 1982. Subjects: Layout, quality assurance, service life analysis etc. of power plant components. (RW) [de

  8. Plasma-Assisted Life and Ecological Operating System (PALEOS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Practical implementation of long-duration, human space missions will require robust, reliable, advanced life support systems. Such systems have been the subject of...

  9. Estimation of residual life of boiler tubes using steamside oxide scale thickness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vikrant, K.S.N.; Ramareddy, G.V.; Pavan, A.H.V.; Singh, Kulvir

    2013-01-01

    In thermal power plants, remaining-life-estimation of boiler tubes is required at regular intervals for a safer and a better functionality of boilers. In this paper, a new method is proposed for the residual life estimation of service exposed boiler tubes using Non-Destructive Ultrasonic Oxide scale thickness measurements, average metal temperature and creep master curve. While steady state conduction heat transfer equations are solved to calculate the average metal temperature, creep master curve is generated from short term stress rupture data of rupture life less than 5000 h on a virgin material. In the present study, the residual life of T22 (2.25Cr-1Mo) service exposed Platen Superheater tube is estimated using two master creep curves, i.e. Larson-Miller Parametric (LMP) method of standard ASME T22 creep data and Wilshire approach of short term stress rupture data of T22. As the residual life is calculated from fundamental conduction heat transfer theory and creep rupture data, the proposed method can be applied for different grades of boiler materials. -- Highlights: ► Residual life is calculated from non-destructive oxide scale thickness, creep master curve and average metal temperature. ► A new method is proposed for calculating residual life using above parameters and from conduction heat transfer principles. ► The method can be applied to different boiler grades for estimating residual life and hence the method is generic

  10. Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Shona J; Levin, Daniel; Looker, Helen C; Lindsay, Robert S; Wild, Sarah H; Joss, Nicola; Leese, Graham; Leslie, Peter; McCrimmon, Rory J; Metcalfe, Wendy; McKnight, John A; Morris, Andrew D; Pearson, Donald W M; Petrie, John R; Philip, Sam; Sattar, Naveed A; Traynor, Jamie P; Colhoun, Helen M

    2015-01-06

    Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on

  11. Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook [Korea Aerospace Univ., Koyang (Korea, Republic of); Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui [Hyosung Corporation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results.

  12. Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dongjin; Kim, Seok Goo; Choi, Jooho; Lee, Jaewook; Song, Hwa Seob; Park, Sang Hui

    2016-01-01

    Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results

  13. Improved computation method in residual life estimation of structural components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksimović Stevan M.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work considers the numerical computation methods and procedures for the fatigue crack growth predicting of cracked notched structural components. Computation method is based on fatigue life prediction using the strain energy density approach. Based on the strain energy density (SED theory, a fatigue crack growth model is developed to predict the lifetime of fatigue crack growth for single or mixed mode cracks. The model is based on an equation expressed in terms of low cycle fatigue parameters. Attention is focused on crack growth analysis of structural components under variable amplitude loads. Crack growth is largely influenced by the effect of the plastic zone at the front of the crack. To obtain efficient computation model plasticity-induced crack closure phenomenon is considered during fatigue crack growth. The use of the strain energy density method is efficient for fatigue crack growth prediction under cyclic loading in damaged structural components. Strain energy density method is easy for engineering applications since it does not require any additional determination of fatigue parameters (those would need to be separately determined for fatigue crack propagation phase, and low cyclic fatigue parameters are used instead. Accurate determination of fatigue crack closure has been a complex task for years. The influence of this phenomenon can be considered by means of experimental and numerical methods. Both of these models are considered. Finite element analysis (FEA has been shown to be a powerful and useful tool1,6 to analyze crack growth and crack closure effects. Computation results are compared with available experimental results. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. OI 174001

  14. Wind Turbine Blade Life-Time Assessment Model for Preventive Planning of Operation and Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Florian

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Out of the total wind turbine failure events, blade damage accounts for a substantial part, with some studies estimating it at around 23%. Current operation and maintenance (O&M practices typically make use of corrective type maintenance as the basic approach, implying high costs for repair and replacement activities as well as large revenue losses, mainly in the case of offshore wind farms. The recent development and evolution of condition monitoring techniques, as well as the fact that an increasing number of installed turbines are equipped with online monitoring systems, offers a large amount of information on the blades structural health to the decision maker. Further, inspections of the blades are often performed in connection with service. In light of the obtained information, a preventive type of maintenance becomes feasible, with the potential of predicting the blades remaining life to support O&M decisions for avoiding major failure events. The present paper presents a fracture mechanics based model for estimating the remaining life of a wind turbine blade, focusing on the crack propagation in the blades adhesive joints. A generic crack propagation model is built in Matlab based on a Paris law approach. The model is used within a risk-based maintenance decision framework to optimize maintenance planning for the blades lifetime.

  15. Plant-life extension planning for an operating LMFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.W.

    1985-01-01

    The study concluded that continued EBR-II operation is certainly feasible for well beyond 10 more years, and that continued demonstration of the unique inherent safety and operability features of a pool-type liquid-metal-cooled reactor and the demonstration of a reasonable operating lifetime are very important and will provide invaluable information for the design and development of the next generation nuclear power plants

  16. Eye Tracking Metrics for Workload Estimation in Flight Deck Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Kyle; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Flight decks of the future are being enhanced through improved avionics that adapt to both aircraft and operator state. Eye tracking allows for non-invasive analysis of pilot eye movements, from which a set of metrics can be derived to effectively and reliably characterize workload. This research identifies eye tracking metrics that correlate to aircraft automation conditions, and identifies the correlation of pilot workload to the same automation conditions. Saccade length was used as an indirect index of pilot workload: Pilots in the fully automated condition were observed to have on average, larger saccadic movements in contrast to the guidance and manual flight conditions. The data set itself also provides a general model of human eye movement behavior and so ostensibly visual attention distribution in the cockpit for approach to land tasks with various levels of automation, by means of the same metrics used for workload algorithm development.

  17. 29 CFR 784.108 - Operations not included in named operations on forms of aquatic “life.”

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... subject matter of the exemptions is concerned with “aquatic forms of animal and vegetable life,” the..., novelties, liquid glue, isinglass, pearl essence, and fortified or refined fish oil is not within these... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Operations not included in named operations on forms of...

  18. Estimation of shelf life of wikau maombo brownies cake using Accelerated Shelf Life Testing (ASLT) method with Arrhenius model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuni, S.; Holilah; Asranudin; Noviyanti

    2018-02-01

    The shelf life of brownies cake made from wikau maombo flour was predicted by ASLT method through the Arrhenius model. The aim of this study was to estimate the shelf life of brownies cake made from wikau maombo flour. The storage temperature of brownies cake was carried out at 20°C, 30°C and 45°C. The results showed that TBA (Thio Barbaturic Acid) number of brownies cake decreased as the storage temperature increase. Brownies stored at 20°C and 30°C were overgrown with mold on the storage time of six days. Brownies product (WT0 and WT1) had shelf life at 40°C approximately six and fourteen days, respectively. Brownies made from wikau maombo and wheat flour (WT1) was the best product with had the longest of shelf life about fourteen days.

  19. Heritability Estimates of Endophenotypes of Long and Health Life: The Long Life Family Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Matteini, Amy M; Fallin, M Daniele; Kammerer, Candace M

    2010-01-01

    survival were identified and heritability estimates were calculated. Principal components (PCs) analysis was carried out using 28 physiologic measurements from five trait domains (cardiovascular, cognition, physical function, pulmonary, and metabolic). RESULTS: The five most dominant PCs accounted for 50......% of underlying trait variance. The first PC (PC1), which consisted primarily of poor pulmonary and physical function, represented 14.3% of the total variance and had an estimated heritability of 39%. PC2 consisted of measures of good metabolic and cardiovascular function with an estimated heritability of 27%. PC...

  20. Essential spectra and exponential estimates of eigenfunctions of lattice operators of quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabinovich, Vladimir S; Roch, Steffen

    2009-01-01

    This paper is devoted to estimates of the exponential decay of eigenfunctions of difference operators on the lattice Z n which are discrete analogs of the Schroedinger, Dirac and square-root Klein-Gordon operators. Our investigation of the essential spectra and the exponential decay of eigenfunctions of the discrete spectra is based on the calculus of pseudodifference operators (i.e., pseudodifferential operators on the group Z n with analytic symbols), and the limit operators method. We obtain a description of the location of the essential spectra and estimates of the eigenfunctions of the discrete spectra of the main lattice operators of quantum mechanics, namely: matrix Schroedinger operators on Z n , Dirac operators on Z 3 and square root Klein-Gordon operators on Z n .

  1. Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Swanson

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

  2. Using cohort change ratios to estimate life expectancy in populations with negligible migration: A new approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucky Tedrow

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Census survival methods are the oldest and most widely applicable methods of estimating adult mortality, and for populations with negligible migration they can provide excellent results. The reason for this ubiquity is threefold: (1 their data requirements are minimal in that only two successive age distributions are needed; (2 the two successive age distributions are usually easily obtained from census counts; and (3 the method is straightforward in that it requires neither a great deal of judgment nor “data-fitting” techniques to implement. This ubiquity is in contrast to other methods, which require more data, as well as judgment and, often, data fitting. In this short note, the new approach we demonstrate is that life expectancy at birth can be computed by using census survival rates in combination with an identity whereby the radix of a life table is equal to 1 (l0 = 1.00. We point out that our suggested method is less involved than the existing approach. We compare estimates using our approach against other estimates, and find it works reasonably well. As well as some nuances and cautions, we discuss the benefits of using this approach to estimate life expectancy, including the ability to develop estimates of average remaining life at any age. We believe that the technique is worthy of consideration for use in estimating life expectancy in populations that experience negligible migration.

  3. ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

  4. An online method for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation using importance sampling and neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ji; Zhang, Chenbin; Chen, Zonghai

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An online RUL estimation method for lithium-ion battery is proposed. • RUL is described by the difference among battery terminal voltage curves. • A feed forward neural network is employed for RUL estimation. • Importance sampling is utilized to select feed forward neural network inputs. - Abstract: An accurate battery remaining useful life (RUL) estimation can facilitate the design of a reliable battery system as well as the safety and reliability of actual operation. A reasonable definition and an effective prediction algorithm are indispensable for the achievement of an accurate RUL estimation result. In this paper, the analysis of battery terminal voltage curves under different cycle numbers during charge process is utilized for RUL definition. Moreover, the relationship between RUL and charge curve is simulated by feed forward neural network (FFNN) for its simplicity and effectiveness. Considering the nonlinearity of lithium-ion charge curve, importance sampling (IS) is employed for FFNN input selection. Based on these results, an online approach using FFNN and IS is presented to estimate lithium-ion battery RUL in this paper. Experiments and numerical comparisons are conducted to validate the proposed method. The results show that the FFNN with IS is an accurate estimation method for actual operation.

  5. Estimation of failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez, Ana; Gagliardi, Andrés; Ares, Gastón

    2017-09-01

    For most food products, shelf life is determined by changes in their sensory characteristics. A predetermined increase or decrease in the intensity of a sensory characteristic has frequently been used to signal that a product has reached the end of its shelf life. Considering all attributes change simultaneously, the concept of multivariate shelf life allows a single measurement of deterioration that takes into account all these sensory changes at a certain storage time. The aim of the present work was to apply survival analysis to estimate failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using two case studies, hamburger buns and orange juice, by modelling the relationship between consumers' rejection of the product and the deterioration index estimated using PCA. In both studies, a panel of 13 trained assessors evaluated the samples using descriptive analysis whereas a panel of 100 consumers answered a "yes" or "no" question regarding intention to buy or consume the product. PC1 explained the great majority of the variance, indicating all sensory characteristics evolved similarly with storage time. Thus, PC1 could be regarded as index of sensory deterioration and a single failure criterion could be estimated through survival analysis for 25 and 50% consumers' rejection. The proposed approach based on multivariate shelf life testing may increase the accuracy of shelf life estimations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Improvement of life insurance-related accounting opera-tions within the New Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinică DOBRIN

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the life insurance-related accounting operations, in consideration to the harmonization of the Romanian legislation with the International Financial Reporting Standards. The main accounting operations specific to the life insurance sector include: accounting of revenues and expenses derived from life insurance operations (recording the premiums written, recording the payment of insurance premiums, termination of insurance policy, recording the compensation expenses, accounting of operations related to the setting up and using the technical reserves for life insurance (general principles, accounting of premium reserves, accounting of loss reserve, accounting of the reserve for benefits and discounts, accounting of mathematical reserve, accounting of other life insurance-related technical reserves.

  7. Grasping and Placing Operation for Labware Transportation in Life Science Laboratories using Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Myasar Ali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In automated working environments, mobile robots can be used for different purposes such as material handling, domestic services, and objects transportation. This work presents a grasping and placing operation for multiple labware and tube racks in life science laboratories using the H20 mobile robots. The H20 robot has dual arms where each arm consists of 6 revolute joints with 6-DOF and 2-DOF grippers. The labware, which have to be manipulated and transported, contain chemical and biological components. Therefore, an accurate approach for object recognition and position estimation is required. The recognition and pose estimation of the desired objects are very essential to guide the robotic arm in the manipulation tasks. In this work, the problem statement of H20 transportation system with the proposed methodology are presented. Different strategies (visual and non-visual of labware manipulation using mobile robots are described. The H20 robot is equipped with a Kinect V2 sensor to identify and estimate the position of the target. The local features recognition based on SURF algorithm (Speeded-Up Robust Features is used. The recognition process is performed for the required labware and holder to perform the grasping and placing operation. A strategy is proposed to find the required holder and to check its emptiness for the placing tasks. Different styles of grippers and labware containers are used to manipulate different weights of labware and to realize a safe transportation. The parts of mobile robot transportation system are communicated with each other using Asynchronous socket Channels.

  8. Estimate of the difference between the Kac operator and the Schroedinger semigroup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichinose, T.; Satoshi, S.

    1997-01-01

    An operator norm estimate of the difference between the Kac operator and the Schroedinger semigroup is proved and used to give a variant of the Trotter product formula for Schroedinger operators in the L p operator norm. This extends Helffer's result in the L 2 operator norm to the case in the L p operator norm for more general scalar potentials and with vector potentials. The method of the proof is probabilistic based on the Feynman-Kac a nd Feynman-Kac-Ito formula. (orig.)

  9. The Social Distribution of Health: Estimating Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love-Koh, James; Asaria, Miqdad; Cookson, Richard; Griffin, Susan

    2015-07-01

    To model the social distribution of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in England by combining survey data on health-related quality of life with administrative data on mortality. Health Survey for England data sets for 2010, 2011, and 2012 were pooled (n = 35,062) and used to model health-related quality of life as a function of sex, age, and socioeconomic status (SES). Office for National Statistics mortality rates were used to construct life tables for age-sex-SES groups. These quality-of-life and length-of-life estimates were then combined to predict QALE as a function of these characteristics. Missing data were imputed, and Monte-Carlo simulation was used to estimate standard errors. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore alternative regression models and measures of SES. Socioeconomic inequality in QALE at birth was estimated at 11.87 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with a sex difference of 1 QALY. When the socioeconomic-sex subgroups are ranked by QALE, a differential of 10.97 QALYs is found between the most and least healthy quintile groups. This differential can be broken down into a life expectancy difference of 7.28 years and a quality-of-life adjustment of 3.69 years. The methods proposed in this article refine simple binary quality-adjustment measures such as the widely used disability-free life expectancy, providing a more accurate picture of overall health inequality in society than has hitherto been available. The predictions also lend themselves well to the task of evaluating the health inequality impact of interventions in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Enhanced design, operation and maintenance practices for a longer plant service life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimondo, E.; Courcoux, A.

    2004-01-01

    Plant service life problems have been under detailed investigation in France and the experience acquired by our company over the past 25 years in the design, construction and maintenance of Pressurized Water Reactors has contributed to develop skills, equipment and capabilities available for efficient plant aging management and component service life extension. The service life of a nuclear power plant is deeply dependant of the provisions made during the design stage, directly linked to good operating conditions and adequate maintenance practices. This paper presents the importance of these three steps (design, operation and maintenance) for plant service life concern. (author)

  11. Absolute Monotonicity of Functions Related To Estimates of First Eigenvalue of Laplace Operator on Riemannian Manifolds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Qi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors find the absolute monotonicity and complete monotonicity of some functions involving trigonometric functions and related to estimates the lower bounds of the first eigenvalue of Laplace operator on Riemannian manifolds.

  12. MRS/IS facility co-located with a repository: preconceptual design and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.I.; Nesbitt, J.F.

    1982-11-01

    A program is described to examine the various alternatives for monitored retrievable storage (MRS) and interim storage (IS) of spent nuclear fuel, solidified high-level waste (HLW), and transuranic (TRU) waste until appropriate geologic repository/repositories are available. The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a preconceptual design for an MRS/IS facility that would become the principal surface facility for a deep geologic repository when the repository is opened, (2) to examine various issues such as transportation of wastes, licensing of the facility, and environmental concerns associated with operation of such a facility, and (3) to estimate the life cycle costs of the facility when operated in response to a set of scenarios which define the quantities and types of waste requiring storage in specific time periods, which generally span the years from 1990 until 2016. The life cycle costs estimated in this study include: the capital expenditures for structures, casks and/or drywells, storage areas and pads, and transfer equipment; the cost of staff labor, supplies, and services; and the incremental cost of transporting the waste materials from the site of origin to the MRS/IS facility. Three scenarios are examined to develop estimates of life cycle costs of the MRS/IS facility. In the first scenario, HLW canisters are stored, starting in 1990, until the co-located repository is opened in the year 1998. Additional reprocessing plants and repositories are placed in service at various intervals. In the second scenario, spent fuel is stored, starting in 1990, because the reprocessing plants are delayed in starting operations by 10 years, but no HLW is stored because the repositories open on schedule. In the third scenario, HLW is stored, starting in 1990, because the repositories are delayed 10 years, but the reprocessing plants open on schedule

  13. An Estimation of Operator's Diagnostic Time for Feed-And-Bleed Operation under Various Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    In order to assess realistic safety of plant, effects of interactions between components, operator, and plant condition are needed to be considered in the PSA model. One of the important issues to estimate the CDF is the estimation of human error probability (HEP). When an accident occurs, operators follow the emergency operating procedure and check various alarm, parameters, and signals. In the conventional Korean PSA model, the Korean standard HRA (K-HRA) method is used. In this method, the HEP is the sum of diagnosis error probability and execution error probability. A diagnosis error probability is expressed by the available time for diagnosis and adjusting performance shaping factors, and an execution error probability is a function of task type and stress level. Available time for diagnosis is very important factor of HEP. If the available time for diagnosis is short, the HEP becomes high. In order to obtain the realistic risk assessment results, we first focus on the estimation of HEP considering the plant dynamics under various scenarios. Target operation and scenarios are feed-and bleed operation (F and B operation) and total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident with/without loss of coolant accident (LOCA). One of the highest HEP is HEP of FnB operation. In additional, Scenarios, which are related to combination secondary heat removal failure and primary heat removal failure, are most critical core damage scenario of the combined accident except scenarios related to station black out (SBO). In these scenarios, the FnB operation is last resort to prevent core damage. To estimate available operator diagnosis time, we identify the relationship between accidents, mitigation function, and plant condition. Distribution of available time of diagnosis was estimated using the MOSAIQUE. The variables are break size, break timing, trip timing of RCP, and availability of high pressure safety injection (HPSI) pump under the TLOFW accident with LOCA. For Type 1 accident

  14. Junction temperature estimation method for a 600 V, 30A IGBT module during converter operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, U. M.; Blaabjerg, F.; Iannuzzo, F.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an accurate method to estimate the junction temperature using the on-state collector-emitter voltage at high current. By means of the proposed method, the estimation error which comes from the different temperatures of the interconnection materials in the module is compensated....... Finally, it leads to satisfactory estimated results. The proposed method has been verified by means of an IR (Infra-Red) camera during power converter operations when the loading current is sinusoidal....

  15. Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

  16. NUMATH: a nuclear material holdup estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichinsky, A.M.

    1982-01-01

    NUMATH provides inventory estimation by utilizing previous inventory measurements, operating data, and, where available, on-line process measurements. For the present time, NUMATH's purpose is to provide a reasonable, near-real-time estimate of material inventory until accurate inventory determination can be obtained from chemical analysis. Ultimately, it is intended that NUMATH will further utilize on-line analyzers and more advanced calculational techniques to provide more accurate inventory determinations and estimates

  17. Assessment of quality of life in patients with non-operated pancreatic cancer after videothoracoscopic splanchnicectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Śmigielski

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Pancreatic tumours are a crucial medical issue. The majority of patients report sick in the late stage ofcarcinoma clinical advancement, which considerably limits the possibility of surgical treatment. Pancreatic cancerpatients with no other alternative but palliative treatment constitute a large group.Aim: To assess pain intensity levels and quality of life of pancreatic cancer patients after videothoracoscopic splanchnicectomy.Material and methods: Between 2001 January and 2010 November in the Department of Thorax, General Surgery andOncology of the Medical University of Lodz 262 patients with pancreatic tumours were hospitalized. In 121 casesgrade 3 and grade 4 tumours were observed. Hundred and twenty-one videothoracoscopic procedures of sympathetictrunk and ganglion excision were performed in 89 patients.Results: Before the procedure the pain intensity level according to VAS was 5.66 (3.9-7.2; SD 1.24 in the trial groupand 5.46 (4.1-7.1; SD 1.15 in the control group. The quality of life average assessment in both groups did not differ statistically(p = 1.07 and was 46.3 (32-66; SD 0.92 in patients before the operation and in the control group 50.3(41-63; SD 0.75. On the 7th postoperative day the pain intensity on average was 2.33 (1.2-3.9; SD 0.78 and 4.57(3.6-5.5; SD 0.69 respectively. One week after the procedure the quality of patients’ life was estimated at 64.1(39-83; SD 1.38 and in the control group at 52.2 (42-65; SD 0.71; the differences are significant (p < 0.05. Thirty daysafter the procedure 12 patients did not t ake any painkillers (13.5%, and in the others a considerable decrease of thetaken drugs was observed. On average, the pain intensity was estimated at 1.78 (0.6-3.6; SD 0.68. The quality of life,on the other hand, improved considerably in relation to the state prior to the procedure, but increased insignificantlyin relation to the state on the 7th postoperative day to 70.9 (52-88; SD 1.14.Conclusions

  18. Integrated Life Cycle Management: A Strategy for Plants to Extend Operating Lifetimes Safely with High Operational Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esselman, Thomas; Bruck, Paul; Mengers, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Nuclear plant operators are studying the possibility of extending their existing generating facilities operating lifetime to 60 years and beyond. Many nuclear plants have been granted licenses to operate their facilities beyond the original 40 year term; however, in order to optimize the long term operating strategies, plant decision-makers need a consistent approach to support their options. This paper proposes a standard methodology to support effective decision-making for the long-term management of selected station assets. Methods detailed are intended to be used by nuclear plant site management, equipment reliability personnel, long term planners, capital asset planners, license renewal staff, and others that intend to look at operation between the current time and the end of operation. This methodology, named Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM), will provide a technical basis to assist decision makers regarding the timing of large capital investments required to get to the end of operation safely and with high plant reliability. ILCM seeks to identify end of life cycle failure probabilities for individual plant large capital assets and attendant costs associated with their refurbishment or replacement. It will provide a standard basis for evaluation of replacement and refurbishment options for these components. ILCM will also develop methods to integrate the individual assets over the entire plant thus assisting nuclear plant decision-makers in their facility long term operating strategies. (author)

  19. [Estimation of the quality of life 8-year-old child with bilateral anophthalmia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sredzińska-Kita, Dorota; Mrugacz, Małgorzata; Bakunowicz-Łazarczyk, Alina

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of our work was to estimate the physical and psychomotor development and the arrangement to the daily life for a 8-year-old girl with inborn bilateral anophthalmia. The basic ophthalmic, pediatric and neurological examinations were performed with additional genetic and radiological examinations. The ophthalmic and MRI examination find out the absence of the eyeballs, optic nerves, optic chiasm, optic tracts and optic radiation. Anophthalmia limits in a big grade an independent life of the child. However, currently the girl's development indicates for good intellectual abilities what is promising for future independent life and professional work.

  20. Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul R Torgerson

    Full Text Available Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs available.We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2.90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1.25-4.54 million from the approximately annual 1.03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2.33 million DALYs (UIs 0.98-3.69 or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden.Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria.

  1. Procedure for estimating nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, M.L.; Fuller, L.C.

    1979-01-01

    Revised guidelines are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants, specifically light-water-reactor plants and coal-fired plants. Previous guidelines were published in October 1975 in ERDA 76-37, a Procedure for Estimating Nonfuel Operating and Maintenance Costs for Large Steam-Electric Power Plants. Estimates for coal-fired plants include the option of limestone slurry scrubbing for flue gas desulfurization. A computer program, OMCOST, is also presented which covers all plant options

  2. Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C

    2017-06-01

    In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

  3. On $L^p$ Estimates for the Time-Dependent Schrodinger Operator on $L^2$

    CERN Document Server

    Mortad, M H

    2006-01-01

    Let L denote the time-dependent Schrodinger operator in n space variables. We consider a variety of Lebesgue norms for functions u on R^{n+1}, and prove or disprove estimates for such norms of u in terms of the L^2-norms of u and Lu. The results have implications for self-adjo intness of operators of the form L+V where V is a multiplication operator. The proofs are based mainly on the Strichartz-type inequalities.

  4. PREMATH: a Precious-Material Holdup Estimator for unit operations and chemical processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichinsky, A.M.; Bruns, D.D.

    1982-01-01

    A computer program, PREMATH (Precious Material Holdup Estimator), has been developed to permit inventory estimation in vessels involved in unit operations and chemical processes. This program has been implemented in an operating nuclear fuel processing plant. PREMATH's purpose is to provide steady-state composition estimates for material residing in process vessels until representative samples can be obtained and chemical analyses can be performed. Since these compositions are used for inventory estimation, the results are determined for and cataloged in container-oriented files. The estimated compositions represent material collected in applicable vessels - including consideration for material previously acknowledged in these vessels. The program utilizes process measurements and simple material balance models to estimate material holdups and distribution within unit operations. During simulated run testing, PREMATH-estimated inventories typically produced material balances within 7% of the associated measured material balances for uranium and within 16% of the associated, measured material balances for thorium (a less valuable material than uranium) during steady-state process operation

  5. Numerical Estimation of Fatigue Life of Wind Turbines due to Shadow Effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Pedersen, Ronnie; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    2009-01-01

    The influence of tower design on damage accumulation in up-wind turbine blades during tower passage is discussed. The fatigue life of a blade is estimated for a tripod tower configuration and a standard mono-tower. The blade stresses are determined from a dynamic mechanical model with a delay...

  6. Social security wealth and aggregate consumption : An extended life-cycle model estimated for The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zant, W.

    In this paper a method is developed to calculate a wealth variable accounting for the existence of the basic old-age provisions in The Netherlands (AOW). In line with Feldstein's extended life-cycle model, consumption functions with (gross) social security wealth are estimated for The Netherlands

  7. A comparison of some methods to estimate the fatigue life of plain dents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, Ricardo R.; Noronha Junior, Dauro B. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-12-19

    This paper describes a method under development at PETROBRAS R and D Center (CENPES) to estimate the fatigue life of plain dents. This method uses the API Publication 1156 as a base to estimate the fatigue life of dome shaped plain dents and the Pipeline Defect Assessment Manual (PDAM) approach to take into account the uncertainty inherent in the fatigue phenomenon. CENPES method, an empirical and a semi-empirical method available in the literature were employed to estimate the fatigue lives of 10 plain dents specimens of Year 1 of an ongoing test program carried out by BMT Fleet Technology Limited, with the support of the Pipeline Research Council International (PRCI). The results obtained with the different methods are presented and compared. Furthermore some details are given on the numerical methodology proposed by PETROBRAS that have been used to describe the behavior of plain dents. (author)

  8. Procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

    1983-03-01

    This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use

  9. Estimates of secondary waste production from operations at a proespective geologic repository in tuff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhard, M.P.; Jardine, L.J.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper, a method is outlined for estimating the volumes of solid and liquid radioactive wastes produced during the operation of a repository in tuff. Volume estimates were also developed based on a preliminary conceptual facility design. Based on a disposal rate of 3000 MTU/y of commercial spent fuel, the waste estimates ranged from 793 to 2464 m 3 /y of uncompacted solids and from 80,431 to 128,690 L/y of liquids, depending on the specific set of facility features assumed. The estimates of waste quantities were most dependent on variations in the ratio of truck to rail cask shipments received. The quantities of waste generated on site decreased as this ratio decreased. Although there are large uncertainties in the current estimates caused by the preliminary nature of the facility designs and the limited amount of engineering detail completed, the methodology can be used to refine estimates as the repository design progresses

  10. Condition monitoring of a motor-operated valve using estimated motor torque

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, Jangbom; Kang, Shinchul; Park, Sungkeun; Hong, Sungyull; Lim, Chanwoo

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the development of data analysis methods to be used in on-line monitoring and diagnosis of Motor-Operated Valves (MOVs) effectively and accurately. The technique to be utilized includes the electrical measurements and signal processing to estimate electric torque of induction motors, which are attached to most of MOV systems. The estimated torque of an induction motor is compared with the directly measured torque using a torque cell in various loading conditions including the degraded voltage conditions to validate the estimating scheme. The accuracy of the estimating scheme is presented. The advantages of the estimated torque signatures are reviewed over the currently used ones such as the current signature and the power signature in several respects: accuracy, sensitivity, resolution and so on. Additionally, the estimated torque methods are suggested as a good way to monitor the conditions of MOVs with higher accuracy. (author)

  11. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions estimation for small hydropower schemes in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varun; Prakash, Ravi; Bhat, I.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents for the first time correlations for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from small hydropower schemes in India. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop life cycle GHG emissions correlations for three different types of small hydropower schemes (run-of river, canal based and dam-toe) in India. It has been found out that GHG emissions depend on the head and capacity of the small hydropower project. The results obtained from correlations show good agreement with the estimated results using EIO-LCA (Economic Input–Output-Life Cycle Assessment) technique. These correlations may be useful for the development of new small hydropower (SHP) schemes, as they can be used to predict life cycle GHG emissions based on capacity, head and type of SHP schemes. -- Highlights: ► A study has been carried out for the Life Cycle Greenhouse gas emissions estimation for SHP schemes in India. ► Around 145 SHP schemes have been studied and their GHG emissions have been estimated. ► Based upon these results correlations have been developed for three different types of SHP schemes.

  12. Improved protocol and data analysis for accelerated shelf-life estimation of solid dosage forms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterman, Kenneth C; Carella, Anthony J; Gumkowski, Michael J; Lukulay, Patrick; MacDonald, Bruce C; Roy, Michael C; Shamblin, Sheri L

    2007-04-01

    To propose and test a new accelerated aging protocol for solid-state, small molecule pharmaceuticals which provides faster predictions for drug substance and drug product shelf-life. The concept of an isoconversion paradigm, where times in different temperature and humidity-controlled stability chambers are set to provide a critical degradant level, is introduced for solid-state pharmaceuticals. Reliable estimates for temperature and relative humidity effects are handled using a humidity-corrected Arrhenius equation, where temperature and relative humidity are assumed to be orthogonal. Imprecision is incorporated into a Monte-Carlo simulation to propagate the variations inherent in the experiment. In early development phases, greater imprecision in predictions is tolerated to allow faster screening with reduced sampling. Early development data are then used to design appropriate test conditions for more reliable later stability estimations. Examples are reported showing that predicted shelf-life values for lower temperatures and different relative humidities are consistent with the measured shelf-life values at those conditions. The new protocols and analyses provide accurate and precise shelf-life estimations in a reduced time from current state of the art.

  13. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series.

  14. Operative needs in HIV+ populations: An estimation for sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherewick, Megan L; Cherewick, Steven D; Kushner, Adam L

    2017-05-01

    In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV globally and approximately 25.5 million of those people were living in sub-Saharan Africa. Limitations in the availability and access to adequate operative care require policy and planning to enhance operative capacity. Data estimating the total number of persons living with HIV by country, sex, and age group were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) in 2015. Using minimum proposed surgical rates per 100,000 for 4, defined, sub-Saharan regions of Africa, country-specific and regional estimates were calculated. The total need and unmet need for operative procedures were estimated. A minimum of 1,539,138 operative procedures were needed in 2015 for the 25.5 million persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, there was an unmet need of 908,513 operative cases in sub-Saharan Africa with the greatest unmet need in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (427,820) and western sub-Saharan Africa (325,026). Approximately 55.6% of the total need for operative cases is adult women, 38.4% are adult men, and 6.0% are among children under the age of 15. A minimum of 1.5 million operative procedures annually are required to meet the needs of persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The unmet need for operative care is greatest in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa and will require investments in personnel, infrastructure, facilities, supplies, and equipment. We highlight the need for global planning and investment in resources to meet targets of operative capacity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries - Volume 1: Concepts and Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

    1991-03-01

    Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner to allow evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key nonmanufacturing sectors. This volume lays out the general concepts and methods used to develop the emergency operating estimates. The historical analysis of capacity extends from 1974 through 1986. Some nonmanufacturing industries are included. In addition to mining and utilities, key industries in transportation, communication, and services were analyzed. Physical capacity and efficiency of production were measured. 3 refs., 2 figs., 12 tabs. (JF)

  16. Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

    2017-12-22

    Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting

  17. Boundary conditions and subelliptic estimates for geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries

    CERN Document Server

    Nier, Francis

    2018-01-01

    This article is concerned with the maximal accretive realizations of geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries. A general class of boundary conditions is introduced which ensures the maximal accretivity and some global subelliptic estimates. Those estimates imply nice spectral properties as well as exponential decay properties for the associated semigroup. Admissible boundary conditions cover a wide range of applications for the usual scalar Kramer-Fokker-Planck equation or Bismut's hypoelliptic laplacian.

  18. Life Limiting Issues for Long Term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esselman, Thomas; Gaertner, John

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on a study which identified and characterized life limiting issues for consideration by nuclear plant owners in their decision to extend plant life or seek subsequent license renewal. As nuclear plants operate for longer periods, the risk that a condition in the plant or an event that occurs, at the plant or elsewhere, will cause a plant owner not to extend plant life increases. The Fukushima accident has made this concept concrete. This paper defines 'Life Limiting' concepts for nuclear plants. It identifies the highest risk conditions and events that may limit duration of continued operation in nuclear plants and employs a survey to prioritize these concerns. Methods for evaluating these risks and changing the capability of systems, structures, and components (SSC) to reduce and manage this risk in long term operation are presented. Integrated obsolescence -the existence of an accumulation of events or condition that can threaten long term operation- is discussed. Many of the life limiting conditions or events may be controllable by early identification, recognition, and mitigation of the potential threat. The recognition of conditions may allow measures to be taken to mitigate the condition. Recognition of the potential for events that may be life limiting may allow actions to be taken that will minimize the likelihood or consequences of the event. These actions may include enhanced research on the expected behavior of the SSC, risk assessment and management, and enhanced monitoring and aging management at the plant. (author)

  19. Remaining Useful Life Estimation using Time Trajectory Tracking and Support Vector Machines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galar, D; Kumar, U; Lee, J; Zhao, W

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, a novel RUL prediction method inspired by feature maps and SVM classifiers is proposed. The historical instances of a system with life-time condition data are used to create a classification by SVM hyper planes. For a test instance of the same system, whose RUL is to be estimated, degradation speed is evaluated by computing the minimal distance defined based on the degradation trajectories, i.e. the approach of the system to the hyper plane that segregates good and bad condition data at different time horizon. Therefore, the final RUL of a specific component can be estimated and global RUL information can then be obtained by aggregating the multiple RUL estimations using a density estimation method.

  20. Estimation of crop water requirements using remote sensing for operational water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Tzabiras, John; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

    2015-06-01

    An integrated modeling system, developed in the framework of "Hydromentor" research project, is applied to evaluate crop water requirements for operational water resources management at Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The framework includes coupled components for operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and estimation of agricultural water demands at several spatial scales using remote sensing. The study area was sub-divided into irrigation zones based on land use maps derived from Landsat 5 TM images for the year 2007. Satellite-based energy balance for mapping evapotranspiration with internalized calibration (METRIC) was used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) and crop coefficient (ETrF) values from Landsat TM imagery. Agricultural water needs were estimated using the FAO method for each zone and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Two operational strategies of hydro-technical project development (present situation without operation of the reservoir and future situation with the operation of the reservoir) are coupled with three water demand strategies. In total, eight (8) water management strategies are evaluated and compared. The results show that, under the existing operational water resources management strategies, the crop water requirements are quite large. However, the operation of the proposed hydro-technical projects in Lake Karla watershed coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area.

  1. Estimates of emergency operating capacity in US manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belzer, D.B. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA)); Serot, D.E. (D/E/S Research, Richland, WA (USA)); Kellogg, M.A. (ERCE, Inc., Portland, OR (USA))

    1991-03-01

    Development of integrated mobilization preparedness policies requires planning estimates of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. Such estimates must be developed in a manner that allows evaluation of current trends in capacity and the consideration of uncertainties in various data inputs and in engineering assumptions. This study, conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), developed estimates of emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 446 manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level of aggregation and for 24 key non-manufacturing sectors. This volume presents tabular and graphical results of the historical analysis and projections for each SIC industry. (JF)

  2. Cost estimates for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm: a budgetary analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, J. Andrew.

    1991-01-01

    Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (DS/DS) presented unique challenges for estimating the cost of that conflict. This analysis reviews the cost estimates and methodologies developed for that purpose by DoD, CBO and GAO. It considers the budget climate and the role of foreign cash and in-kind contributions. Finally, it reviews the budgeting innovations used to provide and monitor DS/DS defense spending. At the outset of the crisis, costs were estimated to determine the defense funding requir...

  3. Operational plans for life science payloads - From experiment selection through postflight reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccollum, G. W.; Nelson, W. G.; Wells, G. W.

    1976-01-01

    Key features of operational plans developed in a study of the Space Shuttle era life science payloads program are presented. The data describes the overall acquisition, staging, and integration of payload elements, as well as program implementation methods and mission support requirements. Five configurations were selected as representative payloads: (a) carry-on laboratories - medical emphasis experiments, (b) mini-laboratories - medical/biology experiments, (c) seven-day dedicated laboratories - medical/biology experiments, (d) 30-day dedicated laboratories - Regenerative Life Support Evaluation (RLSE) with selected life science experiments, and (e) Biomedical Experiments Scientific Satellite (BESS) - extended duration primate (Type I) and small vertebrate (Type II) missions. The recommended operational methods described in the paper are compared to the fundamental data which has been developed in the life science Spacelab Mission Simulation (SMS) test series. Areas assessed include crew training, experiment development and integration, testing, data-dissemination, organization interfaces, and principal investigator working relationships.

  4. Estimated Mortality of Selected Migratory Bird Species from Mowing and Other Mechanical Operations in Canadian Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg Tews

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Mechanical operations such as mowing, tilling, seeding, and harvesting are well-known sources of direct avian mortality in agricultural fields. However, there are currently no mortality rate estimates available for any species group or larger jurisdiction. Even reviews of sources of mortality in birds have failed to address mechanical disturbance in farm fields. To overcome this information gap we provide estimates of total mortality rates by mechanical operations for five selected species across Canada. In our step-by-step modeling approach we (i quantified the amount of various types of agricultural land in each Bird Conservation Region (BCR in Canada, (ii estimated population densities by region and agricultural habitat type for each selected species, (iii estimated the average timing of mechanical agricultural activities, egg laying, and fledging, (iv and used these values and additional demographical parameters to derive estimates of total mortality by species within each BCR. Based on our calculations the total annual estimated incidental take of young ranged from ~138,000 for Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris to as much as ~941,000 for Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis. Net losses to the fall flight of birds, i.e., those birds that would have fledged successfully in the absence of mechanical disturbance, were, for example ~321,000 for Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus and ~483,000 for Savannah Sparrow. Although our estimates are subject to an unknown degree of uncertainty, this assessment is a very important first step because it provides a broad estimate of incidental take for a set of species that may be particularly vulnerable to mechanical operations and a starting point for future refinements of model parameters if and when they become available.

  5. Accuracy of advanced cancer patients' life expectancy estimates: The role of race and source of life expectancy information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trevino, Kelly M; Zhang, Baohui; Shen, Megan J; Prigerson, Holly G

    2016-06-15

    The objective of this study was to examine the source of advanced cancer patients' information about their prognosis and determine whether this source of information could explain racial disparities in the accuracy of patients' life expectancy estimates (LEEs). Coping With Cancer was a prospective, longitudinal, multisite study of terminally ill cancer patients followed until death. In structured interviews, patients reported their LEEs and the sources of these estimates (ie, medical providers, personal beliefs, religious beliefs, and other). The accuracy of LEEs was calculated through a comparison of patients' self-reported LEEs with their actual survival. The sample for this analysis included 229 patients: 31 black patients and 198 white patients. Only 39.30% of the patients estimated their life expectancy within 12 months of their actual survival. Black patients were more likely to have an inaccurate LEE than white patients. A minority of the sample (18.3%) reported that a medical provider was the source of their LEEs; none of the black patients (0%) based their LEEs on a medical provider. Black race remained a significant predictor of an inaccurate LEE, even after the analysis had been controlled for sociodemographic characteristics and the source of LEEs. The majority of advanced cancer patients have an inaccurate understanding of their life expectancy. Black patients with advanced cancer are more likely to have an inaccurate LEE than white patients. Medical providers are not the source of information for LEEs for most advanced cancer patients and especially for black patients. The source of LEEs does not explain racial differences in LEE accuracy. Additional research into the mechanisms underlying racial differences in prognostic understanding is needed. Cancer 2016;122:1905-12. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons

  6. Risk estimates of HIV and HBV infection to the dental operator via ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RISK ESTIMATES OF HIV AND HBV INFECTION. TO THE DENTAL OPERATOR VIA. PRICK ACCIDENTS. W.H. van Palenstein Helderman. Department of Community and Preventive Dentistry,. Faculty of Dentistry, Muhirilbili University College of Health Sciences,. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. , Introduction. Intact skin provides ...

  7. Dynamic state estimation and prediction for real-time control and operation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, P.H.; Venayagamoorthy, G.K.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2013-01-01

    Real-time control and operation are crucial to deal with increasing complexity of modern power systems. To effectively enable those functions, it is required a Dynamic State Estimation (DSE) function to provide accurate network state variables at the right moment and predict their trends ahead. This

  8. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  9. Support vector machine based estimation of remaining useful life: current research status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Hong Zhong; Wang, Hai Kun; Li, Yan Feng; Zhang, Longlong; Liu, Zhiliang

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is helpful to manage life cycles of machines and to reduce maintenance cost. Support vector machine (SVM) is a promising algorithm for estimation of RUL because it can easily process small training sets and multi-dimensional data. Many SVM based methods have been proposed to predict RUL of some key components. We did a literature review related to SVM based RUL estimation within a decade. The references reviewed are classified into two categories: improved SVM algorithms and their applications to RUL estimation. The latter category can be further divided into two types: one, to predict the condition state in the future and then build a relationship between state and RUL; two, to establish a direct relationship between current state and RUL. However, SVM is seldom used to track the degradation process and build an accurate relationship between the current health condition state and RUL. Based on the above review and summary, this paper points out that the ability to continually improve SVM, and obtain a novel idea for RUL prediction using SVM will be future works.

  10. Life time estimation for irradiation assisted mechanical cracking of PWR RCCA rodlets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuoka, Takanori; Yamaguchi, Youichirou [Nuclear Development Corp., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1999-09-01

    Intergranular cracks of cladding tubes had been observed at the tips of the rodlets of PWR rod cluster control assemblies (RCCAs). Because RCCAs were important core components, an investigation was carried out to estimate their service lifetime. The reviews on their mechanism and the life time estimation are shown in this paper. The summaries are as follows. (1) The mechanism of the intergranular crack of the cladding tube was not IASCC but irradiation assisted mechanical cracking (IAMC) caused by an increase in hoop strain due to the swelling of the absorber and a decrease in elongation due to neutron irradiation. (2) The crack initiation limit of cylindrical shells made of low ductile material and subjected to internal pressure was determined in relation to the uniform strain of the material and was in accordance with that of the RCCA rodlets in an actual plant. (3) From the above investigation, the method of estimating the lifetime and countermeasures for its extension were obtained. (author)

  11. Operational production of Geodetic Excitation Functions from EOP estimated values at ASI-CGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciarretta, C.; Luceri, V.; Bianco, G.

    2009-04-01

    ASI-CGS is routinely providing geodetic excitation functions from its own estimated EOP values (at present SLR and VLBI; the current use of GPS EOP's is also planned as soon as this product will be fully operational) on the ASI geodetic web site (http://geodaf.mt.asi.it). This product has been generated and monitored (for ASI internal use only) in a long pre-operational phase (more than two years), including validation and testing. The daily geodetic excitation functions are now weekly updated along with the operational ASI SLR and VLBI EOP solutions and compared, whenever possible, with the atmospheric excitation functions available at the IERS SBAAM, under the IB and not-IB assumption, including the "wind" term. The work will present the available estimated geodetic function time series and its comparison with the relevant atmospheric excitation functions, deriving quantitative indicators on the quality of the estimates. The similarities as well as the discrepancies among the atmospheric and geodetic series will be analysed and commented, evaluating in particular the degree of correlation among the two estimated time series and the likelihood of a linear dependence hypothesis.

  12. A review of life expectancy and infant mortality estimations for Australian Aboriginal people

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Significant variation exists in published Aboriginal mortality and life expectancy (LE) estimates due to differing and evolving methodologies required to correct for inadequate recording of Aboriginality in death data, under-counting of Aboriginal people in population censuses, and unexplained growth in the Aboriginal population attributed to changes in the propensity of individuals to identify as Aboriginal at population censuses. The objective of this paper is to analyse variation in reported Australian Aboriginal mortality in terms of LE and infant mortality rates (IMR), compared with all Australians. Methods Published data for Aboriginal LE and IMR were obtained and analysed for data quality and method of estimation. Trends in reported LE and IMR estimates were assessed and compared with those in the entire Australian population. Results LE estimates derived from different methodologies vary by as much as 7.2 years for the same comparison period. Indirect methods for estimating Aboriginal LE have produced LE estimates sensitive to small changes in underlying assumptions, some of which are subject to circular reasoning. Most indirect methods appear to under-estimate Aboriginal LE. Estimated LE gaps between Aboriginal people and the overall Australian population have varied between 11 and 20 years. Latest mortality estimates, based on linking census and death data, are likely to over-estimate Aboriginal LE. Temporal LE changes by each methodology indicate that Aboriginal LE has improved at rates similar to the Australian population overall. Consequently the gap in LE between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population appears to be unchanged since the early 1980s, and at the end of the first decade of the 21st century remains at least 11–12 years. In contrast, focussing on the 1990–2010 period Aboriginal IMR declined steeply over 2001–08, from more than 12 to around 8 deaths per 1,000 live births, the same level as Australia overall in

  13. Quality of life in patients with cleft lip and palate after operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augsornwan, Darawan; Namedang, Sarakull; Pongpagatip, Sumalee; Surakunprapha, Palakorn

    2011-12-01

    Cleft lip and cleft palate are the most common craniofacial anomalies. Srinagarind Hospital has 150-200 cases each year. The operating process of care, requires continuity of care involving a multidisciplinary team. When the patients go to hospital for an operation they experience pain, limited activity and also food is very different from normal life. When attending school they suffer speech articulation problems and feel shy and isolated, which has a detrimental affect on their life style and quality of life. The main purpose of the study is to the present study quality of life in patients with cleft lip and palate after operation. The present study is descriptive research using qualitative and quantitative approaches. The studied population were patients age 8-18 years old who were admitted at 3C Ward and Outpatient Department, Srinagarind Hospital. 33 patients were interviewed for the quantitative approach. Guideline for in-depth interview with 15 patients were used for the qualitative approach. Quantitative data were analyzed and presented in frequency, percentage and standard deviation. The qualitative data were analyzed through content analysis. Patients consider their QOL is high level, but in detail they still worry about self concept psychological well-being. From indept interview patients would like to get further treatment to minimize their scar as soon as possible. Patients consider their quality of life as high level, but they would like to get further treatment.

  14. Ensemble Kalman Filtering with Residual Nudging: An Extension to State Estimation Problems with Nonlinear Observation Operators

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2014-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an efficient algorithm for many data assimilation problems. In certain circumstances, however, divergence of the EnKF might be spotted. In previous studies, the authors proposed an observation-space-based strategy, called residual nudging, to improve the stability of the EnKF when dealing with linear observation operators. The main idea behind residual nudging is to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the distances (misfits) between the real observations and the simulated ones of the state estimates, in the hope that by doing so one may be able to obtain better estimation accuracy. In the present study, residual nudging is extended and modified in order to handle nonlinear observation operators. Such extension and modification result in an iterative filtering framework that, under suitable conditions, is able to achieve the objective of residual nudging for data assimilation problems with nonlinear observation operators. The 40-dimensional Lorenz-96 model is used to illustrate the performance of the iterative filter. Numerical results show that, while a normal EnKF may diverge with nonlinear observation operators, the proposed iterative filter remains stable and leads to reasonable estimation accuracy under various experimental settings.

  15. Estimating truck operating costs for domestic trips – case studies from Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sdoukopoulos Eleftherios

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector represents a vital component of national economies and has significant impacts on productivity and social welfare. In 2012, the transport sector in Europe was estimated to account for 3.7% of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP and 5.1% for employment. Road transport proves to be the predominant mode for moving goods within Europe holding a share of approximately 45.8% in 2012 (in ton-kms. In Greece, the share of road freight transport is significantly higher (98% indicating the importance of this sector for the Greek economy. To this end and considering the existing needs of road freight transport operators in Greece, the objective of this research is to establish an analytical and documented basis for estimating the operating cost of a truck on specific urban or national freight transport routes. To achieve this goal, an extended literature review has been conducted resulting in the identification of the main components comprising the total truck operating cost, which were then updated and validated through a series of personal interviews with selected road freight transport professionals. An excel-based application tool was also developed in order to facilitate operating cost estimates for different cases, through selection of the proper values of the relevant parameters. The resulting tool was used to analyse four test cases, which demonstrate the tool’s usability and applicability. Results from this analysis have been also validated by industry experts and they reflect real-world transport scenarios.

  16. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Guerrieri

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  17. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  18. An innovative multivariate tool for fuel consumption and costs estimation of agricultural operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guerrieri, M.; Fedrizzi, M.; Antonucci, F.; Pallottino, F.; Sperandio, G.; Pagano, M.; Figorilli, S.; Menesatti, P.; Costa, C.

    2016-07-01

    The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery) were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages) and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy). In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

  19. Comparing NEXRAD Operational Precipitation Estimates and Raingage Observations of Intense Precipitation in the Missouri River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, C. B.

    2002-05-01

    Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.

  20. Estimation Algorithm of Machine Operational Intention by Bayes Filtering with Self-Organizing Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Suzuki

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We present an intention estimator algorithm that can deal with dynamic change of the environment in a man-machine system and will be able to be utilized for an autarkical human-assisting system. In the algorithm, state transition relation of intentions is formed using a self-organizing map (SOM from the measured data of the operation and environmental variables with the reference intention sequence. The operational intention modes are identified by stochastic computation using a Bayesian particle filter with the trained SOM. This method enables to omit the troublesome process to specify types of information which should be used to build the estimator. Applying the proposed method to the remote operation task, the estimator's behavior was analyzed, the pros and cons of the method were investigated, and ways for the improvement were discussed. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimator can identify the intention modes at 44–94 percent concordance ratios against normal intention modes whose periods can be found by about 70 percent of members of human analysts. On the other hand, it was found that human analysts' discrimination which was used as canonical data for validation differed depending on difference of intention modes. Specifically, an investigation of intentions pattern discriminated by eight analysts showed that the estimator could not identify the same modes that human analysts could not discriminate. And, in the analysis of the multiple different intentions, it was found that the estimator could identify the same type of intention modes to human-discriminated ones as well as 62–73 percent when the first and second dominant intention modes were considered.

  1. Developing and testing an operational framework for assessing quality of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fahy, F.; O Cinneide, M.

    2008-01-01

    Difficulties with operationalising the concept of sustainable development have generated much debate, and have stimulated a good deal of research on the challenging task of assessing progress towards that goal. This paper focuses on quality of life, as one discourse in the sustainable development literature, and reports on the development and testing of an operational framework for the assessment of quality of life in an urban setting. Core principles of sustainable development are translated into a set of operational criteria for investigating quality of life. The process of formulating these criteria and the manner in which they may be linked to policy and practice are outlined. The application of the framework is demonstrated by reference to the experience of implementing it in an urban centre in Ireland

  2. Radiotelemetry to estimate stream life of adult chum salmon in the McNeil River, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirce, Joshua M.; Otis, Edward O.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Follmann, Erich H.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating salmon escapement is one of the fundamental steps in managing salmon populations. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) method is commonly used to convert periodic aerial survey counts into annual salmon escapement indices. The AUC requires obtaining accurate estimates of stream life (SL) for target species. Traditional methods for estimating SL (e.g., mark–recapture) are not feasible for many populations. Our objective in this study was to determine the average SL of chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta in the McNeil River, Alaska, through radiotelemetry. During the 2005 and 2006 runs, 155 chum salmon were fitted with mortality-indicating radio tags as they entered the McNeil River and tracked until they died. A combination of remote data loggers, aerial surveys, and foot surveys were used to determine the location of fish and provide an estimate of time of death. Higher predation resulted in tagged fish below McNeil Falls having a significantly shorter SL (12.6 d) than those above (21.9 d). The streamwide average SL (13.8 d) for chum salmon at the McNeil River was lower than the regionwide value (17.5 d) previously used to generate AUC indices of chum salmon escapement for the McNeil River. We conclude that radiotelemetry is an effective tool for estimating SL in rivers not well suited to other methods.

  3. Estimating the Value of Life, Injury, and Travel Time Saved Using a Stated Preference Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

    2016-06-01

    The incidence of fatality over the period 2010-2014 from automobile accidents in North Cyprus is 2.75 times greater than the average for the EU. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments will need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. The objective of this study is to provide local estimates of the value of a statistical life and injury along with the value of time savings. These are among the parameter values needed for the evaluation of the change in the expected incidence of automotive accidents and time savings brought about by such projects. In this study we conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of automobile drivers in North Cyprus for improved travel times, travel costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers choose. These estimates were used to assess the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid fatalities and injuries and to save travel time. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of travel time saved. The estimates for the VSL range from €315,293 to €1,117,856 and the estimates of VI from € 5,603 to € 28,186. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Curtright, Aimee E.; Samaras, Constantine; Skone, Timothy

    2011-01-01

    Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs. This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production. -- Highlights: → We describe key model, scenario and data uncertainties in LCAs of biobased fuels. → System boundaries and allocation choices should be consistent with study goals. → Scenarios should be designed around policy levers that can be controlled. → We describe a new way to analyze the importance of covariance between inputs.

  5. Capital and operating cost estimates for high temperature superconducting magnetic energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenung, S.M.; Meier, W.R.; Fagaly, R.L.; Heiberger, M.; Stephens, R.B.; Leuer, J.A.; Guzman, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    Capital and operating costs have been estimated for mid-scale (2 to 200 Mwh) superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) designed to use high temperature superconductors (HTS). Capital costs are dominated by the cost of superconducting materials. Operating costs, primarily for regeneration, are significantly reduced for HTS-SMES in comparison to low temperature, conventional systems. This cost component is small compared to other O and M and capital components, when levelized annual costs are projected. In this paper, the developments required for HTS-SMES feasibility are discussed

  6. Real time estimation of photovoltaic modules characteristics and its application to maximum power point operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrigos, Ausias; Blanes, Jose M.; Carrasco, Jose A. [Area de Tecnologia Electronica, Universidad Miguel Hernandez de Elche, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, 03202 Elche, Alicante (Spain); Ejea, Juan B. [Departamento de Ingenieria Electronica, Universidad de Valencia, Avda. Dr Moliner 50, 46100 Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

    2007-05-15

    In this paper, an approximate curve fitting method for photovoltaic modules is presented. The operation is based on solving a simple solar cell electrical model by a microcontroller in real time. Only four voltage and current coordinates are needed to obtain the solar module parameters and set its operation at maximum power in any conditions of illumination and temperature. Despite its simplicity, this method is suitable for low cost real time applications, as control loop reference generator in photovoltaic maximum power point circuits. The theory that supports the estimator together with simulations and experimental results are presented. (author)

  7. Estimating NIRR-1 burn-up and core life time expectancy using the codes WIMS and CITATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahaya, B.; Ahmed, Y. A.; Balogun, G. I.; Agbo, S. A.

    The Nigeria Research Reactor-1 (NIRR-1) is a low power miniature neutron source reactor (MNSR) located at the Centre for Energy Research and Training, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria Nigeria. The reactor went critical with initial core excess reactivity of 3.77 mk. The NIRR-1 cold excess reactivity measured at the time of commissioning was determined to be 4.97 mk, which is more than the licensed range of 3.5-4 mk. Hence some cadmium poison worth -1.2 mk was inserted into one of the inner irradiation sites which act as reactivity regulating device in order to reduce the core excess reactivity to 3.77 mk, which is within recommended licensed range of 3.5 mk and 4.0 mk. In this present study, the burn-up calculations of the NIRR-1 fuel and the estimation of the core life time expectancy after 10 years (the reactor core expected cycle) have been conducted using the codes WIMS and CITATION. The burn-up analyses carried out indicated that the excess reactivity of NIRR-1 follows a linear decreasing trend having 216 Effective Full Power Days (EFPD) operations. The reactivity worth of top beryllium shim data plates was calculated to be 19.072 mk. The result of depletion analysis for NIRR-1 core shows that (7.9947 ± 0.0008) g of U-235 was consumed for the period of 12 years of operating time. The production of the build-up of Pu-239 was found to be (0.0347 ± 0.0043) g. The core life time estimated in this research was found to be 30.33 years. This is in good agreement with the literature

  8. Gas spark switches with increased operating life for Marx generator of lightning test complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bykov, Yu. A.; Krastelev, E. G., E-mail: ekrastelev@yandex.ru [Russian Academy of Sciences, Joint Institute for High Temperature (Russian Federation)

    2016-12-15

    A new design of gas spark switches with an increased operating life and stable dynamic characteristics for the Marx generator of the lightning test complex has been developed. The switches are characterized by the following parameters in the mode of operation: voltage up to 80 kV, discharge current up to 50 kA, flowing charge up to 3.5 C/pulse. An increased operating life is achieved by using torus-shaped electrodes with increased working surface area and a trigger electrode in the form of a thick disk with a hole located between them. Low breakdown delay time and high stability of breakdown voltage under dynamic conditions are provided by gas preionization in the spark gap using UV radiation of an additional corona discharge in the axial region.

  9. An Analytical Method for Jack-Up Riser’s Fatigue Life Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengde Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to determine whether a special sea area and its sea state are available for the jack-up riser with surface blowout preventers, an analytical method is presented to estimate the jack-up riser’s wave loading fatigue life in this study. In addition, an approximate formula is derived to compute the random wave force spectrum of the small-scale structures. The results show that the response of jack-up riser is a narrow band random vibration. The infinite water depth dispersion relation between wavenumber and wave frequency can be used to calculate the wave force spectrum of small-scale structures. The riser’s response mainly consists of the additional displacement response. The fatigue life obtained by the formula proposed by Steinberg is less than that of the Bendat method.

  10. A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Lentz, A.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on 'small probability-large consequences' events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.

  11. Radiation dose estimates due to air particulate emissions from selected phosphate industry operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partridge, J.E.; Horton, T.R.; Sensintaffar, E.L.; Boysen, G.A.

    1978-06-01

    The EPA Office of Radiation Programs has conducted a series of studies to determine the radiological impact of the phosphate mining and milling industry. This report describes the efforts to estimate the radiation doses due to airborne emissions of particulates from selected phosphate milling operations in Florida. Two wet process phosphoric acid plants and one ore drying facility were selected for this study. The 1976 Annual Operations/Emissions Report, submitted by each facility to the Florida Department of Environmental Regulation, and a field survey trip by EPA personnel to each facility were used to develop data for dose calculations. The field survey trip included sampling for stack emissions and ambient air samples collected in the general vicinity of each plant. Population and individual radiation dose estimates are made based on these sources of data

  12. Improved Battery Parameter Estimation Method Considering Operating Scenarios for HEV/EV Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jufeng Yang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted dataset is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.

  13. Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

    2016-10-01

    Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Dose estimative in operators during petroleum wells logging with nuclear wireless probes through computer modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Edmilson Monteiro de; Silva, Ademir Xavier da; Lopes, Ricardo T.; Correa, Samanda Cristine Arruda; Rocha, Paula L.F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper evaluates the absorbed dose and the effective dose on operators during the petroleum well logging with nuclear wireless that uses gamma radiation sources. To obtain the data, a typical scenery of a logging procedure will be simulated with MCNPX Monte Carlo code. The simulated logging probe was the Density Gamma Probe - TRISOND produced by Robertson Geolloging. The absorbed dose values were estimated through the anthropomorphic simulator in male voxel MAX. The effective dose values were obtained using the ICRP 103

  15. Estimation of the optimal operating conditions for a radiation chemical neutralization unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Putilov, A.V.; Kamenetskaya, S.A.; Pshezhetskii, S.Ya.; Kazakov, M.S.; Kudryavtsev, S.L.; Petrukhin, N.V.; Misharin, B.A.; Koneev, V.Z.

    1985-01-01

    An estimate is made of the effect of the hydrodynamic conditions on the efficiency of foam units for the radiation chemical neutralization of impurities, taking into account the penetrating power of accelerated electrons having various energies. Expressions are obtained for calculating the efficiency of such units with sectionized operation of the chamber and taking account of the effect of incomplete mixing of the products of radiolysis through the height of the foam layer

  16. Fretting fatigue life estimation using fatigue damage gradient correction factor in various contact configurations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Dong Hyeon; Cho, Sung-San [Hongik University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    A fretting fatigue life estimation method that takes into account the stress gradient effect was developed by the authors [Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, 28 (2014) 2153-2159]. In the developed method, fatigue damage value at the cracking location is corrected with fatigue damage gradient and the corrected value is compared directly with the plain fatigue data for life estimation. In other words, the correction factor is the ratio of plain fatigue damage to fretting fatigue damage at the same life and a function of fatigue damage gradient. Since reliability of the method was verified only for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration in the previous study, the present study extends application of the method to flat-on-flat contact configurations by developing the correction factor for both the contact configuration. Fretting fatigue experiments were conducted to obtain fatigue life data for various fretting pads. Finite element analyses were conducted to evaluate the Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) fatigue damage parameter in the cracking region. It is revealed that the SWT parameter in fat-on-flat contact configuration decreases exponentially away from the surface as in cylinder-on-flat contact configuration, and thus the SWT gradient at the surface can be evaluated reliably. Moreover, it is found that decrease in the SWT parameter around the cracking location can be expressed by piecewise exponential curves. If the gradient of SWT at the surface is used as a representative value of SWT gradient, it is impossible to establish functional relationship between the SWT gradient and the correction factor for both the contact configurations although it was possible for cylinder-on-flat contact configuration. However, if weighted average of the SWT gradient values obtained from each exponential curve in the piecewise exponential curve is used as a representative value, the correction factor for both the contact configurations becomes a function of the SWT gradient

  17. Application of Mathematica Software for Estimate the Fatigue Life Time Duration of Mechanical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petru Florin Minda

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper present how we can use Mathematica to solve the equations types usually used to determinate the maximum stress cycles that can be support by a mechanical system until he will be out of use. To illustrate the type of equations used in specialized literature to estimate fatigue life time duration was chosen a specific case of mechanical structure applied to fatigue. It is about lever button of runner blade mechanism of Kaplan turbine, that in function support a very intensive alternative strain.

  18. Estimating the operator's performance time of emergency procedural tasks based on a task complexity measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Won Dae; Park, Jink Yun

    2012-01-01

    It is important to understand the amount of time required to execute an emergency procedural task in a high-stress situation for managing human performance under emergencies in a nuclear power plant. However, the time to execute an emergency procedural task is highly dependent upon expert judgment due to the lack of actual data. This paper proposes an analytical method to estimate the operator's performance time (OPT) of a procedural task, which is based on a measure of the task complexity (TACOM). The proposed method for estimating an OPT is an equation that uses the TACOM as a variable, and the OPT of a procedural task can be calculated if its relevant TACOM score is available. The validity of the proposed equation is demonstrated by comparing the estimated OPTs with the observed OPTs for emergency procedural tasks in a steam generator tube rupture scenario.

  19. Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

    2017-09-01

    The incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. We conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved. The estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour. The ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned. Findings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The effects of thoracic surgery operations on quality of life: a multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öz, Gürhan; Solak, Okan; Metin, Muzaffer; Esme, Hıdır; Sayar, Adnan

    2015-10-01

    Some treatment modalities may cause losses in patients' life comfort because of the treatment process. Our aim is to determine the effects of thoracic surgery operations on patients' quality of life. This is a multicenter and prospective study. A hundred patients, who had undergone posterolateral thoracotomy (PLT) and/or lateral thoracotomy (LT), were included in the study. A quality of life questionnaire (SF-36) was used to determine the changes in life comfort. SF-36 was performed before the operation, on the first month, third month, sixth month and twelfth month after the operation. Seventy-two percent (n = 72) of the patients were male. PLT was performed in 66% (n = 66) of the patients, and LT was performed in 34% (n = 34) of the patients. The types of resections in patients were pneumonectomy in four patients, lobectomy in 59 patients and wedge resection in 11 patients. No resection was performed in 26 patients. Thoracotomy caused deteriorations in physical function (PF), physical role (RP), bodily pain (BP), health, vitality and social function scores. The deteriorations observed in the third month improved in the sixth and twelfth months. The PF, RP, BP and MH scores of the patients with lung resection were much more worsened compared with the patients who did not undergo lung resection. Thoracic surgery operations caused substantial dissatisfaction in life comfort especially in the third month postoperatively. The worsening in physical function, physical role, pain and mental health is much more in patients with resection compared with the patients who did not undergo resection. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Cash flows: The Gap Between Reported and Estimated Operating Cash Flow Elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Hughes

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The FASB and the IASB recently released a joint Discussion Paper “Preliminary Views on FinancialStatement Presentation” (International Accounting Standards Board 2008, which contains a major proposalrequiring companies to report operating cash flows using the direct method and it also requires that theindirect method of calculating operating cash flows be disclosed in the notes. This is a departure from currentrules and has generated considerable debate among respondents’ comment letters on the Discussion Paper.This paper adds to this debate by providing some evidence as to the size of the gap users confront when usingthe indirect method to estimate the major operating cash flow elements, such as cash collected fromcustomers and cash paid to suppliers. Using a sample of Australian companies which reported operating cashflows using the direct method, and presented the indirect method in the notes, we find significant differencesbetween reported and estimated figures for both cash collected from customers and cash paid to suppliers.These findings support the discussion paper’s proposal that companies be required to report cash flows usingboth the direct and indirect methods.

  2. Estimation of the laser cutting operating cost by support vector regression methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jović, Srđan; Radović, Aleksandar; Šarkoćević, Živče; Petković, Dalibor; Alizamir, Meysam

    2016-09-01

    Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

  3. Planning study and economic feasibility for extended life operation of light water reactor plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negin, C.A.; Goudarzi, L.A.; Kenworthy, L.U.; Lapides, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this planning study was to perform an assessment of the engineering and economic feasibility of extended life operation of present nuclear power plant units and to recommend future programs that may be warranted by the feasibility assessments. This effort concludes, essentially, that there is sufficient economic motivation for refurbishment to warrant more extensive examination for present plants and to identify possible design modifications that would facilitate extended service life in future plants. The costs of replacing the deterioration-prone equipment in a nuclear power plant appear to represent a small portion of the total plant costs, provided downtime is not excessive. A refurbishment and economic analysis is presented

  4. Pain from the life cycle perspective: Evaluation and Measurement through psychophysical methods of category estimation and magnitude estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Fátima Aparecida Emm Faleiros; Silva, Talita de Cássia Raminelli da; Siqueira, Hilze Benigno de Oliveira Moura; Saltareli, Simone; Gomez, Rodrigo Ramon Falconi; Hortense, Priscilla

    2016-08-18

    to describe acute and chronic pain from the perspective of the life cycle. participants: 861 people in pain. The Multidimensional Pain Evaluation Scale (MPES) was used. in the category estimation method the highest descriptors of chronic pain for children/ adolescents were "Annoying" and for adults "Uncomfortable". The highest descriptors of acute pain for children/adolescents was "Complicated"; and for adults was "Unbearable". In magnitude estimation method, the highest descriptors of chronic pain was "Desperate" and for descriptors of acute pain was "Terrible". the MPES is a reliable scale it can be applied during different stages of development. descrever a dor aguda e a crônica na perspectiva do ciclo vital. Métodos: participaram 861 pessoas com dor. Foi utilizada a Escala Multidimensional de Avaliação da Dor (EMADOR). Resultados: no método da estimação de categoria o descritor da dor crônica de maior atribuição para crianças e adolescentes foi "Chata" e para adultos foi "Desconfortável". Os descritores de maior atribuição para dor aguda em crianças e adolescentes foram "Complicada" e em adultos "Insuportável". No método de estimação de magnitude, o descritor de maior atribuição na dor crônica foi "Atormentadora" e na dor aguda foi "Terrível". a EMADOR é uma escala confiável e pode ser utilizada nas diferentes etapas do desenvolvimento humano. la descripción del dolor agudo y crónico desde las perspectiva del ciclo de vida. participaron 861 personas con dolor. Se utilizó la Escala Multidimensional de Evaluación del Dolor (EMEDOR). en el método de estimación de categoría el descriptor de dolor crónico más alto para niños y adolescentes fue de Molesto y para adultos fue Incómodo. Los descriptores mayores de dolor agudo para niños y adolescentes fueron Complejo y para adultos Insoportable. En el método de estimación de magnitud, el mayor descriptor de dolor crónico fueron Atormentador y el mayor de dolor agudo fue Terrible

  5. An empiric estimate of the value of life: updating the renal dialysis cost-effectiveness standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chris P; Chertow, Glenn M; Zenios, Stefanos A

    2009-01-01

    Proposals to make decisions about coverage of new technology by comparing the technology's incremental cost-effectiveness with the traditional benchmark of dialysis imply that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis is seen a proxy for the value of a statistical year of life. The frequently used ratio for dialysis has, however, not been updated to reflect more recently available data on dialysis. We developed a computer simulation model for the end-stage renal disease population and compared cost, life expectancy, and quality adjusted life expectancy of current dialysis practice relative to three less costly alternatives and to no dialysis. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for these alternatives relative to the next least costly alternative and no dialysis and analyzed the population distribution of the ratios. Model parameters and costs were estimated using data from the Medicare population and a large integrated health-care delivery system between 1996 and 2003. The sensitivity of results to model assumptions was tested using 38 scenarios of one-way sensitivity analysis, where parameters informing the cost, utility, mortality and morbidity, etc. components of the model were by perturbed +/-50%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dialysis of current practice relative to the next least costly alternative is on average $129,090 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ($61,294 per year), but its distribution within the population is wide; the interquartile range is $71,890 per QALY, while the 1st and 99th percentiles are $65,496 and $488,360 per QALY, respectively. Higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were associated with older age and more comorbid conditions. Sensitivity to model parameters was comparatively small, with most of the scenarios leading to a change of less than 10% in the ratio. The value of a statistical year of life implied by dialysis practice currently averages $129,090 per QALY ($61,294 per year), but

  6. Life management of Zr 2.5% Nb pressure tube through estimation of fracture properties by cyclic ball indentation technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, S.; Madhusoodanan, K.; Rama Rao, A.

    2015-01-01

    In Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) fuel bundles are located inside horizontal pressure tubes. Pressure tubes made up of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb undergo degradation during in-service environmental conditions. Measurement of mechanical properties of degraded pressure tubes is important for assessing its fitness for further service in the reactor. The only way to accomplish this important objective is to develop a system based on insitu measurement technique. Considering the importance of such measurement, an In-situ Property Measurement System (IProMS) based on cyclic ball indentation technique has been designed and developed indigenously. The remotely operable system is capable of carrying out indentation trial on the inside surface of the pressure tube and to estimate important mechanical properties like yield strength, ultimate tensile strength, hardness etc. It is known that fracture toughness is one of the important life limiting parameters of the pressure tube. Hence, five spool pieces of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb pressure tube of different mechanical properties have been used for estimation of fracture toughness by ball indentation method. Curved Compact Tension (CCT) specimens were also prepared from the five spool pieces for measurement of fracture toughness from conventional tests. The conventional fracture toughness values were used as reference data. A methodology has been developed to estimate the fracture properties of Zr 2.5 wt% Nb pressure tube material from the analysis of the ball indentation test data. This paper highlights the comparison between tensile properties measured from conventional tests and IProMS trials and relates the fracture toughness parameters measured from conventional tests with the IProMS estimated fracture properties like Indentation Energy to Fracture. (author)

  7. Experimental research into operating strength and fatigue life of bodywork of buses and trolleybuses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolhof, V.; Kepka, M.; Rehor, P.; Horak, V.; Sima, J.

    1992-01-01

    Operational strength and fatigue life reliability of trolleybus and bus bodies are usually assessed by computational methods in combination with selected tests. The latter include test runs of vehicles on real routes or on specially designed tracks, tests on complete vehicles under model test conditions and laboratory tests on selected materials, parts and subassemblies. This paper describes a method of experimental investigation of operational strength and reliability developed and applied at the Central Research Institute Skoda for public-transport road vehicles made in Czechoslovakia. (orig.)

  8. Plant life management for long term operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The world's fleet of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) is approximately 20 years old on average, and most plants are believed to be able to operate for 60 years or more. The design life of a NPP is typically 30 to 40 years. This may be extended by 10 to 20 years, or more, provided that the plant can demonstrate by analysis, trending, equipment and system upgrades, increased vigilance, testing, ageing management, and other means that license renewal presents no threat to public health and safety. The basic goal of Plant Life Management (PLiM) is to satisfy requirements for safe long-term supplies of electricity in an economically competitive way. The basic goal of the operating company and the owners to operate as long as economically reasonable and possible from safety point of view. PLiM is a management tool for doing that. PLiM is a system of programmes and procedures to satisfy safety requirements for safe operation and for power production in a competitive way and for time which is rational from technical and economical point of view. PLiM is not only a technical system, it is also an attitude of the operational company to keep the plant in operation as long as possible from safety and business point of view. The common objectives of PLiM assessment is to help and review the pre-conditions for PLiM and long-term operation approaches. PLiM should not be associated with extension of operational life-time of the NPP only. It is an owner's attitude and rational approach of the operating company to run the business economically and safely. The effectiveness of PLiM Programme can be assessed by three complementary kinds of assessment: self-assessment, peer review and comprehensive programme review by the plant owner/ operator. IAEA will provide the assessment service for peer review of PLiM. Preparation for a PLiM Assessment service will be initiated only after the IAEA has been formally approached by a MS and funding (e.g. an existing Technical cooperation project) has

  9. The creep life of superheater and reheater tubes under varying pressure conditions in operational boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizen, D.C.; Plastow, B.

    1975-01-01

    The first of each manufacturer's 500 MW boilers supplied to the CEGB (Central Electricity Generating Board) have been subjected to an extensive programme of tests for performance optimization and safe operation. Around 250 thermocouples on superheater and reheater tubes have in each case been monitored as part of the exercise. The readings are corrected and used to compute creep rupture damage based on internationally agreed stress rupture data and a simple cumulative damage concept. Comparison of the design creep rupture life and the cumulative life consumed has in several applications been invaluable in influencing operating procedures and arranging tube modifications or replacements, so that loss of generation by creep rupture failure is minimized. (author)

  10. Development of GP and GEP models to estimate an environmental issue induced by blasting operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faradonbeh, Roohollah Shirani; Hasanipanah, Mahdi; Amnieh, Hassan Bakhshandeh; Armaghani, Danial Jahed; Monjezi, Masoud

    2018-05-21

    Air overpressure (AOp) is one of the most adverse effects induced by blasting in the surface mines and civil projects. So, proper evaluation and estimation of the AOp is important for minimizing the environmental problems resulting from blasting. The main aim of this study is to estimate AOp produced by blasting operation in Miduk copper mine, Iran, developing two artificial intelligence models, i.e., genetic programming (GP) and gene expression programming (GEP). Then, the accuracy of the GP and GEP models has been compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) and three empirical models. For this purpose, 92 blasting events were investigated, and subsequently, the AOp values were carefully measured. Moreover, in each operation, the values of maximum charge per delay and distance from blast points, as two effective parameters on the AOp, were measured. After predicting by the predictive models, their performance prediction was checked in terms of variance account for (VAF), coefficient of determination (CoD), and root mean square error (RMSE). Finally, it was found that the GEP with VAF of 94.12%, CoD of 0.941, and RMSE of 0.06 is a more precise model than other predictive models for the AOp prediction in the Miduk copper mine, and it can be introduced as a new powerful tool for estimating the AOp resulting from blasting.

  11. Fatigue life estimation of MD36 and MD523 bogies based on damage accumulation and random fatigue theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younesian, Davood; Solhmirzaei, Ali; Gachloo, Alireza

    2009-01-01

    Bogies are one of the multifunctional parts of trains which are extremely subjected to random loads. This type of oscillating and random excitation arises from irregularities of the track including rail surface vertical roughness, rail joints, variance in super-elevation, and also wheel imperfections like wheel flats and unbalancy. Since most of the prementioned sources have random nature, a random based theory should be applied for fatigue life estimation of the bogie frame. Two methods of fatigue life estimation are investigated in this paper. The first approach which is being implemented in time domain is based on the damage accumulation (DA) approach. Using Monte-Carlo simulation algorithm, the rail surface roughness is generated. Finite element (FE) model of the bogie is subjected to the generated random excitation in the first approach and the stress time histories are obtained, and consequently the fatigue life is estimated by using the rain-flow algorithm. In the second approach, the fatigue life is estimated in frequency domain. Power spectral density (PSD) of the stress is obtained by using the FE model of the bogie frame and the fatigue life is estimated using Rayleigh technique in random fatigue theory. A comprehensive parametric study is carried out and effects of different parameters like the train speeds and level of the rail surface vertical roughness on the estimated fatigue life are investigated

  12. Effect of unbalanced voltage on windings temperature, operational life and load carrying capacity of induction machine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gnacinski, P. [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Ship Electrical Power Engineering, Morska Street 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2008-04-15

    This paper investigates the influence of the CVUF angle on the windings temperature rise and the derating factor of an induction machine supplied with unbalanced voltage. The effect of simultaneous voltage unbalance and harmonics on its operational life is analyzed as well. The results of calculations and experimental investigations are presented for two induction cage machines of rated power 3 and 5.5 kW. (author)

  13. A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, G.; Hospido, A.; Bagley, D.M.; Moreira, M.T.; Feijoo, G.

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin®, making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N 2 O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO 2 emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: ► A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. ► Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. ► N 2 O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. ► CO 2 emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

  14. A methodology to estimate greenhouse gases emissions in Life Cycle Inventories of wastewater treatment plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Garcia, G., E-mail: gonzalo.rodriguez.garcia@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Hospido, A., E-mail: almudena.hospido@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Bagley, D.M., E-mail: bagley@uwyo.edu [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Wyoming, 82072 Laramie, WY (United States); Moreira, M.T., E-mail: maite.moreira@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Feijoo, G., E-mail: gumersindo.feijoo@usc.es [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Rua Lope Gomez de Marzoa, S/N, 15782, Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2012-11-15

    The main objective of this paper is to present the Direct Emissions Estimation Model (DEEM), a model for the estimation of CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}O emissions from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). This model is consistent with non-specific but widely used models such as AS/AD and ASM no. 1 and presents the benefits of simplicity and application over a common WWTP simulation platform, BioWin Registered-Sign , making it suitable for Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint studies. Its application in a Spanish WWTP indicates direct N{sub 2}O emissions to be 8 times larger than those associated with electricity use and thus relevant for LCA. CO{sub 2} emissions can be of similar importance to electricity-associated ones provided that 20% of them are of non-biogenic origin. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A model has been developed for the estimation of GHG emissions in WWTP. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model was consistent with both ASM no. 1 and AS/AD. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer N{sub 2}O emissions are 8 times more relevant than the one associated with electricity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer CO{sub 2} emissions are as important as electricity if 20% of it is non-biogenic.

  15. Nonparametric Fine Tuning of Mixtures: Application to Non-Life Insurance Claims Distribution Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardet, Laure; Patilea, Valentin

    When pricing a specific insurance premium, actuary needs to evaluate the claims cost distribution for the warranty. Traditional actuarial methods use parametric specifications to model claims distribution, like lognormal, Weibull and Pareto laws. Mixtures of such distributions allow to improve the flexibility of the parametric approach and seem to be quite well-adapted to capture the skewness, the long tails as well as the unobserved heterogeneity among the claims. In this paper, instead of looking for a finely tuned mixture with many components, we choose a parsimonious mixture modeling, typically a two or three-component mixture. Next, we use the mixture cumulative distribution function (CDF) to transform data into the unit interval where we apply a beta-kernel smoothing procedure. A bandwidth rule adapted to our methodology is proposed. Finally, the beta-kernel density estimate is back-transformed to recover an estimate of the original claims density. The beta-kernel smoothing provides an automatic fine-tuning of the parsimonious mixture and thus avoids inference in more complex mixture models with many parameters. We investigate the empirical performance of the new method in the estimation of the quantiles with simulated nonnegative data and the quantiles of the individual claims distribution in a non-life insurance application.

  16. Estimation of efficiency of new local rehabilitation method at the early post-operative period after dental implantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Pasechnik

    2017-01-01

      Summary Despite of success of dental implantation, there are often complications at the early post-operative period of implant placing associated with wound damage and aseptic inflammation. Purpose of the work is studying clinical efficiency of combined local application of new mucosal gel “Apior” and magnetotherapy at the early post-operative period after dental implantation. Combined local application of the mucosal gel “Apior” and pulsating low-frequency electromagnetic field in the complex medical treatment of patients after conducting an operation of setting dental implants favourably affects the common state of patients and clinical symptoms of inflammation in the area of operating wound. As compared with patients who had traditional anti-inflammatory therapy, the patients treated with local application of apigel and magnetoterapy had decline of edema incidence, of gingival mucosa hyperemia, of discomfort in the area of conducted operation. There occurred more rapid improvement of inflammation painfulness, which correlated with the improvement of hygienic state of oral cavity and promoted to prevention of bacterial content of damaged mucous surfaces. Estimation of microvasculatory blood stream by the method of ultrasonic doppler flowmetry revealed more rapid normalization of volume and linear high systole speed of blood stream in the periimplant tissues in case of use of new complex local rehabilitation method, that testified to the less pronounced inflammation of oral mucosa after the operation. The authors came to conclusion that the local application of the offered method of medical treatment of early post-operative complications of dental implantation reduces terms of renewal of structural-functional integrity of oral mucosa, helps in preventing development of inflammatory complications and strengthening endosseus implant. The inclusion in the treatment management of a new combined method of application of mucosal gel “Apior” and

  17. Operative and consultative proportions of neurosurgical disease worldwide: estimation from the surgeon perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewan, Michael C; Rattani, Abbas; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Faruque, Serena; Johnson, Walter D; Dempsey, Robert J; Haglund, Michael M; Alkire, Blake C; Park, Kee B; Warf, Benjamin C; Shrime, Mark G

    2018-05-11

    OBJECTIVE The global magnitude of neurosurgical disease is unknown. The authors sought to estimate the surgical and consultative proportion of diseases commonly encountered by neurosurgeons, as well as surgeon case volume and perceived workload. METHODS An electronic survey was sent to 193 neurosurgeons previously identified via a global surgeon mapping initiative. The survey consisted of three sections aimed at quantifying surgical incidence of neurological disease, consultation incidence, and surgeon demographic data. Surgeons were asked to estimate the proportion of 11 neurological disorders that, in an ideal world, would indicate either neurosurgical operation or neurosurgical consultation. Respondent surgeons indicated their confidence level in each estimate. Demographic and surgical practice characteristics-including case volume and perceived workload-were also captured. RESULTS Eighty-five neurosurgeons from 57 countries, representing all WHO regions and World Bank income levels, completed the survey. Neurological conditions estimated to warrant neurosurgical consultation with the highest frequency were brain tumors (96%), spinal tumors (95%), hydrocephalus (94%), and neural tube defects (92%), whereas stroke (54%), central nervous system infection (58%), and epilepsy (40%) carried the lowest frequency. Similarly, surgery was deemed necessary for an average of 88% cases of hydrocephalus, 82% of spinal tumors and neural tube defects, and 78% of brain tumors. Degenerative spine disease (42%), stroke (31%), and epilepsy (24%) were found to warrant surgical intervention less frequently. Confidence levels were consistently high among respondents (lower quartile > 70/100 for 90% of questions), and estimates did not vary significantly across WHO regions or among income levels. Surgeons reported performing a mean of 245 cases annually (median 190). On a 100-point scale indicating a surgeon's perceived workload (0-not busy, 100-overworked), respondents selected a

  18. Probability of fracture and life extension estimate of the high-flux isotope reactor vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, S.J.

    1998-01-01

    The state of the vessel steel embrittlement as a result of neutron irradiation can be measured by its increase in ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) for fracture, often denoted by RT NDT for carbon steel. This transition temperature can be calibrated by the drop-weight test and, sometimes, by the Charpy impact test. The life extension for the high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) vessel is calculated by using the method of fracture mechanics that is incorporated with the effect of the DBTT change. The failure probability of the HFIR vessel is limited as the life of the vessel by the reactor core melt probability of 10 -4 . The operating safety of the reactor is ensured by periodic hydrostatic pressure test (hydrotest). The hydrotest is performed in order to determine a safe vessel static pressure. The fracture probability as a result of the hydrostatic pressure test is calculated and is used to determine the life of the vessel. Failure to perform hydrotest imposes the limit on the life of the vessel. The conventional method of fracture probability calculations such as that used by the NRC-sponsored PRAISE CODE and the FAVOR CODE developed in this Laboratory are based on the Monte Carlo simulation. Heavy computations are required. An alternative method of fracture probability calculation by direct probability integration is developed in this paper. The present approach offers simple and expedient ways to obtain numerical results without losing any generality. In this paper, numerical results on (1) the probability of vessel fracture, (2) the hydrotest time interval, and (3) the hydrotest pressure as a result of the DBTT increase are obtained

  19. The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Meenakshi

    2005-01-01

    NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

  20. Greenhouse gases in the life cycle of fossil fuels: critical aspects in upstream emissions estimate and their repercussions on the overall life-cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerlia, Tiziana

    2004-01-01

    Combustion accounts for the main contribution to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions in electricity generation via fossil fuels. To date, minor attention has been paid to pre combustion emissions associated with fossil fuel upstream segment (production, processing and transportation). This study seeks to provide insight into GHG emissions in the pre combustion step of natural gas and coal. Owing to the size/complexity of the upstream processes and to a lack of detailed site-specific data, this study just outlines some of the key aspects involved. The attention will be focused on the elements that may have a significant impact on fossil fuel life-cycle and no on the evaluation of GHG: the sources, the extent of the pre combustion GHG emissions and the accuracy of their estimate. Some key results are summarized in the following. The first one is that pre combustion GHG, owing of the huge Italy reliance on fossil fuels imports, are mainly emitted abroad. In addition, they are released to the atmosphere mainly as fugitive emissions (methane and carbon dioxide being the predominant gases). Moreover, although pre combustion emissions give a modest contribution to GHG of the whole energy sector, they may account for a consistent part of the aver all fuel life-cycle in power generation even though combustion technologies efficiency plays a key role in emission reduction. Some examples are reported, showing the potential impact of pre combustion emissions on coal and natural gas life-cycle in Italy's electricity generation. The second one is that pre combustion emissions are very site specific as they depend on several factors which may vary greatly between countries and even between individual companies. The sources and the extent of upstream emissions are in fact a function of a least three factor types: (a) technical parameters (design and operating practices, process operating conditions, efficiency of potential emission control/reduction equipment, age and conditions of

  1. Application of coating and base material living models to evaluate degradation and estimate the mean local operating temperature of two ex-service 1{sup st} stage blades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandelli, M. [Proing Italia, Torbole sul Garda, Trento (Italy); Rinaldi, C. [ERSE, Milan (Italy); Vacchieri, E. [Ansaldo Energia S.p.A., Genoa (Italy)

    2010-07-01

    In the frame of the collaborative program COST 538 a coating life prediction code was implemented by Proing and ERSE with an inverse problem solution routine able to calculate the local mean operating temperature from the operating conditions and the extension of the coating depleted regions. Moreover base material degradation models were developed by Ansaldo Energia on both equiaxed and single crystal superalloys. This paper describes the application of such methodologies to two ex-service 1st stage gas turbine blades delivered to COST 538 by AEN after operation in two different plants with different operating conditions. The objective of the study was the application and validation of an innovative NDT and the estimate of the mean operating temperature at different positions of the components. The destructive metallographic analysis of the blades let to validate the non destructive frequency scanning eddy current technique (F-SECT). Coating life modelling results are compared with those of the base material degradation models. An interesting correlation was found between the estimated temperatures with the two methods and also with the NDT findings at the most significant component positions. (orig.)

  2. Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank

    2015-01-01

    The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

  3. E2CAV, Pavement layer thickness estimation system based on image texture operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brayan Barrios Arcila

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Public roads are an essential part of economic progress in any country; they are fundamental for increasing the efficiency on transportation of goods and are a remarkable source of employment. For its part, Colombia has few statistics on the condition of its roads; according with INVIAS the state of the roads in Colombia can be classified as “Very Good” (21.1%, “Good” (34.7%, and “Regular” or “Bad” (43.46%. Thus, from the point of view of pavement rehabilitation, it is worth securing the quality of those roads classified as “Regular” or “Bad”. Objective: In this paper we propose a system to estimate the thickness of the pavement layer using image segmentation methods. The pavement thickness is currently estimated using radars of terrestrial penetration, extraction of cores or making pips; and it is part of structural parameters in the systems of evaluation of pavement. Method: The proposed system is composed of a vertical movement control unit, which introduces a video scope into a small hole in the pavement, then the images are obtained and unified in a laptop. Finally, this mosaic is processed through texture operators to estimate the thickness of the pavement. Users can select between the Otsu method and Gabor filters to process the image data. Results: The results include laboratory and field tests; these tests show errors of 5.03% and 11.3%, respectively, in the thickness of the pavement. Conclusion: The proposed system is an attractive option for local estimation of pavement thickness, with minimal structural damage and less impact on mobility and number of operators.

  4. An estimation of population doses from a nuclear power plant during normal operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowicki, K.

    1975-07-01

    A model is presented for estimation of the potential submersion and inhalation radiation doses to people located within a distance of 1000 km from a nuclear power plant during normal operation. The model was used to calculate doses for people living 200-1000 km from hypothetical nuclear power facility sited near the geographical centre of Denmark. Two kinds of sources are considered for this situation: - unit release of 15 isotopes of noble gases and iodines, - effluent releases from two types of 1000 MWe Light Water Power Reactors: PWR and BWR. Parameter variations were made and analyzed in order to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms of the model. (author)

  5. Estimated Impact of the Regional Operational Programme 2007-2013 in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Antonescu

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation process is a basic element of modern public sector management practice. If this process is well conducted, it can contribute to improved public interventions, increased transparency, accountability and cost-effectiveness. In the European Union, old Member States have a relatively long record of conducting evaluations and acting on their results, especially regarding Structural Funds. For Romania and other new Member States, this process is being introduced increasingly, in particular, after integration. The study analyses the estimated impact of Regional Operational Programme 2007-2013 in Romania.

  6. Fleet size estimation for spreading operation considering road geometry, weather and traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven I-Jy Chien

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions(i.e. snow storm in winter time have caused significant travel disruptions and increased delay and traffic accidents. Snow plowing and salt spreading are the most common counter-measures for making our roads safer for motorists. To assist highway maintenance authorities with better planning and allocation of winter maintenance resources, this study introduces an analytical model to estimate the required number of trucks for spreading operation subjective to pre-specified service time constraints considering road geometry, weather and traffic. The complexity of the research problem lies in dealing with heterogeneous road geometry of road sections, truck capacities, spreading patterns, and traffic speeds under different weather conditions and time periods of an event. The proposed model is applied to two maintenance yards with seven road sections in New Jersey (USA, which demonstrates itself fairly practical to be implemented, considering diverse operational conditions.

  7. Quality of life and sexual function of women operated on reproductive system organs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. S. Lashkul

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Aim – to study the effect of planned gynecological operations on the integral characteristics of physical, psychological, emotional, social and sexual functioning of women. Materials and methods. Quality of life and sexual function were studied in 165 patients who underwent planned gynecological operations. Depending on the type of surgical treatment patients were divided into 6 groups: the 1st group – 20 patients (vaginal hysterectomy without FTS, the 2nd group – 23 patients (abdominal hysterectomy without FTS, the 3rd group – 54 patients (laparoscopic operations on the uterine appendages without FTS, the 4th group – 21 patients (vaginal hysterectomy with FTS, the 5th group – 20 patients (abdominal hysterectomy with FTS, the 6th group – 27 patients (laparoscopic operations on the uterine appendages with FTS. To assess the quality of life a short version of the SF-36 questionnaire was used. The questionnaire was developed at the US Institute of Health, author J. E. Ware, and contains 36 items. They are grouped so that they reflect 8 different aspects related to health. The results for each scale are presented in a point scale (from 1 to 100, where a higher score corresponds to a better quality of life. To assess the sexual function a questionnaire was conducted using the female sexual function index (FSFI. The questionnaire includes 19 items that provide of characteristics of desire, excitement, lubrication, orgasm, getting sexual satisfaction and dyspareunia presence assessment. The minimum score is 2, the maximum is 36. Stages of the questionnaire: before the operation and three months after the operation. Results. In patients before and after laparoscopic surgery on uterine appendages without FTS and with FTS, the mean values of the female sexual function index were significantly higher after surgery and reached the maximum value of 36. So, by questionnaire before and after 3 months it has been found that the indicators

  8. Cumulative damage and estimation of residual life in metallic alloys under creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, T.L. da.

    1980-07-01

    The mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics have been determined for a group of materials tested under conditions of creep, and the ability of various models detailed in the literature to describe these observed characteristics discussed. The parametric methods employed in formulating the indices which define the allowable stresses for design codes have been analysed, and a method of Minimum Standard Deviation (MSD) for construction of reference curves has been proposed. The constitutive equations used in the methods of analysis of creep stresses have been discussed. Finally, the accumulated damage by creep in a particular structure which had been in extended service has been characterized and, based on these observations, the methods for estimation of remaining life in industrial equipment have been analysed. (Author) [pt

  9. Advanced maintenance strategies for power plant operators--introducing inter-plant life cycle management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeber, Ulrich

    2004-01-01

    One of the most important goals of competing power plant operators is to ensure safe operation of their plants, characterized by maximum availability throughout the entire life cycle and minimized specific generating costs. One parameter crucial to the total price of electricity--and one that can be actively influenced by the power plant operators--is maintenance. Up to 30% of all electricity generating costs accrue from maintenance. In the past years maintenance measures have been optimized particularly by the application and continuing development of testing and diagnostic techniques, by the increased level of system and component automation as well as more efficient organization structures. Despite the considerable success of these efforts, the potential for further cost reductions is still far from exhausted. But the risks connected to reliability, availability and safety need to be analyzed in greater detail in order to ensure the sustainability of the savings already achieved as well as those yet to be realized. The systematic application of condition-based maintenance and the implementation of structured life cycle management are essential requirements. An inter-plant approach is recommended to make a quick implementation of maintenance optimization potentials possible. Plant-specific improvement potentials can be established with the help of a best-practice comparison, and measures and priorities can be defined for realizing them. Creating an inter-plant database will allow experience and findings to be analyzed quickly and efficiently by experts and made available to all participants on a neutral platform. Despite--or maybe owing to--the increasingly competitive marketplace, a sustained reduction in the maintenance costs of power plant operators can only be achieved through a structured, inter-plant exchange of experience. The ZES offers the industry a suitable platform for cooperation with its 'Condition-Based Maintenance' research focus. The introduction

  10. Estimation and comparison of intra operative blood loss in patients with and without venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahsin, S.; Bashir, A.; Faiz, S.A.; Tahir, J.; Ijaz, A.

    2014-01-01

    To estimate and compare intraoperative blood loss in surgical patients with and without deep vein thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin Study Design: Clinical Trial Place and Duration: Surgery Department of Fauji Foundation Hospital and Physiology Department Foundation University Medical College from October 2011 to August 2012 Patients and Methodology: Patients were selected by non probability purposive sampling. Patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were divided into 2 groups 25 each on the basis of order of presentation at Fauji Foundation Hospital until cohort numbers were reached. Group I received no heparin whereas group II received heparin. Written informed consent was taken from the patient after explaining the procedure of the study. Coagulation profile was done for both groups before the planned surgery. Heparin in a dose of 5000 units was administered subcutaneously to group II on the morning of the planned surgery and it was stopped 24 hours post operatively. Blood loss was estimated in both groups by weighing cotton swabs pre and post operatively. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 17. Results: Demographic data and surgical procedure time between the two groups did not differ. Blood loss between the two groups did not show any statistically significant difference. Conclusion: DVT prophylaxis using unfractionated heparin did not lead to any significant overt blood loss when compared with those without it. (author)

  11. Effects on fatigue life of gate valves due to higher torque switch settings during operability testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richins, W.D.; Snow, S.D.; Miller, G.K.; Russell, M.J.; Ware, A.G.

    1995-12-01

    Some motor operated valves now have higher torque switch settings due to regulatory requirements to ensure valve operability with appropriate margins at design basis conditions. Verifying operability with these settings imposes higher stem loads during periodic inservice testing. These higher test loads increase stresses in the various valve internal parts which may in turn increase the fatigue usage factors. This increased fatigue is judged to be a concern primarily in the valve disks, seats, yokes, stems, and stem nuts. Although the motor operators may also have significantly increased loading, they are being evaluated by the manufacturers and are beyond the scope of this study. Two gate valves representative of both relatively weak and strong valves commonly used in commercial nuclear applications were selected for fatigue analyses. Detailed dimensional and test data were available for both valves from previous studies at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Finite element models were developed to estimate maximum stresses in the internal parts of the valves and to identity the critical areas within the valves where fatigue may be a concern. Loads were estimated using industry standard equations for calculating torque switch settings prior and subsequent to the testing requirements of USNRC Generic Letter 89--10. Test data were used to determine both; (1) the overshoot load between torque switch trip and final seating of the disk during valve closing and (2) the stem thrust required to open the valves. The ranges of peak stresses thus determined were then used to estimate the increase in the fatigue usage factors due to the higher stem thrust loads. The usages that would be accumulated by 100 base cycles plus one or eight test cycles per year over 40 and 60 years of operation were calculated

  12. Estimation of uranium resources by life-cycle or discovery-rate models: a critique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, D.P.

    1976-10-01

    This report was motivated primarily by M. A. Lieberman's ''United States Uranium Resources: An Analysis of Historical Data'' (Science, April 30). His conclusion that only 87,000 tons of U 3 O 8 resources recoverable at a forward cost of $8/lb remain to be discovered is criticized. It is shown that there is no theoretical basis for selecting the exponential or any other function for the discovery rate. Some of the economic (productivity, inflation) and data issues involved in the analysis of undiscovered, recoverable U 3 O 8 resources on discovery rates of $8 reserves are discussed. The problem of the ratio of undiscovered $30 resources to undiscovered $8 resources is considered. It is concluded that: all methods for the estimation of unknown resources must employ a model of some form of the endowment-exploration-production complex, but every model is a simplification of the real world, and every estimate is intrinsically uncertain. The life-cycle model is useless for the appraisal of undiscovered, recoverable U 3 O 8 , and the discovery rate model underestimates these resources

  13. Oxidative stability and estimate of the shelf life of sacha inchi (Plukenetia volubilis L. oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilbert Rodríguez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Sacha inchi oil is rich in polyunsaturated fatty acids that may rust, limiting their shel flife. The Rancimat method is official, for evaluations of oxidative stability accelerated in oils. Industrially conventional techniques based on physical and chemical indicators are used; there are no studies of correlation between them and Rancimat. This work has for objective correlate the oxidative stability index (OSI Sacha inchi oil obtained by Rancimat at temperatures of 80°, 90°, 100° and 110 °C under an air flow of 15 L/h, with the values of physic-chemical indicators such as Index peroxide, p-anisidine, totox and density. Also estimated by mathematical extrapolation, the shelf life of sacha inchi oil to usual storage temperatures. OSI values were: 0.493 ± 0.01 h at 110 ºC, 1.590 ± 0.06 h at 100 ºC, 4.645 ± 0.1 h at 90 ºC and 20.512 ± 0.02 h at 80 ºC. High correlation has been established between values of OSI vs physicochemical quality indices (0.9322 < r < 0.9965. The activation energy was found 137.90 kJ/mol, which explains the high oxidative stability for the oil, estimating a lifetime of 3.29, 1.79 and 0.79 years at 20, 25 and 30 °C respectively.

  14. Mean Green operators of deformable fiber networks embedded in a compliant matrix and property estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franciosi, Patrick; Spagnuolo, Mario; Salman, Oguz Umut

    2018-04-01

    Composites comprising included phases in a continuous matrix constitute a huge class of meta-materials, whose effective properties, whether they be mechanical, physical or coupled, can be selectively optimized by using appropriate phase arrangements and architectures. An important subclass is represented by "network-reinforced matrices," say those materials in which one or more of the embedded phases are co-continuous with the matrix in one or more directions. In this article, we present a method to study effective properties of simple such structures from which more complex ones can be accessible. Effective properties are shown, in the framework of linear elasticity, estimable by using the global mean Green operator for the entire embedded fiber network which is by definition through sample spanning. This network operator is obtained from one of infinite planar alignments of infinite fibers, which the network can be seen as an interpenetrated set of, with the fiber interactions being fully accounted for in the alignments. The mean operator of such alignments is given in exact closed form for isotropic elastic-like or dielectric-like matrices. We first exemplify how these operators relevantly provide, from classic homogenization frameworks, effective properties in the case of 1D fiber bundles embedded in an isotropic elastic-like medium. It is also shown that using infinite patterns with fully interacting elements over their whole influence range at any element concentration suppresses the dilute approximation limit of these frameworks. We finally present a construction method for a global operator of fiber networks described as interpenetrated such bundles.

  15. Parameterization of mechanical process operations taking into consideration a coefficient of variation and tool life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Sgibnev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the results of studies on methods for improving the reliability of mechanical process operations of hard-to-machine materials. In serial production hard-to-machine materials processing should be characterized by high reliability, in particular, low dispersion tool life.The aim is to analyze the reliability of a part of the technological system, i.e. the tool for mechanical processing of hard-to-machine materials.The paper analyzes the effect of various input parameters of the technological system (processed material, tool material, technological environment, operating parameters (processing modes on the reliability of the technological system. A feature of this work is to obtain quantitative characteristics of reliability for processing just the hard-to-machine materials. It is an important problem-solving because of the high cost of both the materials and the tool.For various tool, processed materials, and process operation conditions the experiments have been conducted, and, when machining, the tool life has been recorded, thus allowing to obtain the coefficient of variation for high production run of tool. Comparison of coefficients of variation resulted in offering the tool material, process environment, and operation conditions to improve the reliability of the technological system for the specific brands of corrosion resistant steels and alloys and tungsten.It is shown that the tool material and technological environment have the biggest influence on the tool life period T and its coefficient of variation varT. It is noted that materials with a complicated composition have the higher life volatility as compared with the resistance simple alloys. It is shown that an increasing cutting speed is reduced after a certain value of the coefficient of variation due to entrainment outgrowth formed on the cutting edge of the tool.The results obtained allow machining production engineers at the enterprises of serial

  16. The TileCal Online Energy Estimation for the Next LHC Operation Period

    CERN Document Server

    Peralva, B S; The ATLAS collaboration; Cerqueira, A S; Seixas, J M

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a study on the TileCal online energy estimation for the next LHC operation period (Run2). Due to hardware limitation, the algorithm that performs the online energy estimation must remain based on the linear and fast Optimal Filter (OF) technique, which envisages the use of the background covariance matrix in its design. During Run1, TileCal made use of an identity matrix to describe and the background covariance matrix, which showed to be a reasonable approximation for the low luminosity scenario. Under such conditions, the background for most of its cells comprised mainly electronic noise which can be approximated as a uncorrelated Gaussian process. However, as the pile-up introduces a non-Gaussian component to the background, the OF method presents larger variance and it becomes biased. The use of the background covariance matrix in the design of the OF weights is expected to improve the energy estimation performance. The results for the scenario considered show that for high occupancy ce...

  17. Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belzer, D.B.

    1997-02-01

    To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studies of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.

  18. The TileCal Online Energy Estimation for the Next LHC Operation Period

    CERN Document Server

    Peralva, B S; The ATLAS collaboration

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS Tile Calorimeter (TileCal) is the detector used in the reconstruction of hadrons, jets, muons and missing transverse energy from the proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It covers the central part of the ATLAS detector (|η|<1.6). The energy deposited by the particles is read out by approximately 5,000 cells, with double readout channels. The signal provided by the readout electronics for each channel is digitized at 40 MHz and its amplitude is estimated by an optimal filtering algorithm, which expects a single signal with a well-defined shape. However, the LHC luminosity is expected to increase leading to signal pile-up that deforms the signal of interest. Due to limited resources, the current DSP-based hardware setup does not allow the implementation of sophisticated energy estimation methods that deal with the pile-up. Therefore, the technique to be employed for online energy estimation in TileCal for next LHC operation period must be based on fast filters such as the M...

  19. A Modified Model to Estimate Building Rental Multipiers Accounting for Advalorem Operating Expenses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smolyak S.A.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To develop ideas on building element valuation contained in the first article on the subject published in REMV, we propose an elaboration of the approach accounting for ad valorem expenses incidental to property management, such as land taxes, income/capital gains tax, and insurance premium costs; all such costs, being of an ad valorem nature in the first instance, cause circularity in the logic of the model, which, however, is not intractable under the proposed approach. The resulting formulas for carrying out practical estimation of building rental multipliers and, in consequence, of building values, turn out to be somewhat modified, and we demonstrate the sensitivity of the developed approach to the impact of these ad valorem factors. On the other hand, it is demonstrated that (accounting for building depreciation charges, which should seemingly be included among the considered ad valorem factors, cancel out and do not have any impact on the resulting estimates. However, treating the depreciation of buildings in quantifiable economic terms as a reduction in derivable operating benefits over time (instead of mere physical indications, such as age, we also demonstrate that the approach has implications for estimating the economic service lives of buildings and can be practical when used in conjunction with the market-related approach to valuation – from which the requisite model inputs can be extracted as shown in the final part of the paper.

  20. Prediction equation for estimating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, N D; Pasiakos, S M; McClung, H L; Crombie, A P; Margolis, L M

    2018-01-01

    Special Operations Forces (SOF) engage in a variety of military tasks with many producing high energy expenditures, leading to undesired energy deficits and loss of body mass. Therefore, the ability to accurately estimate daily energy requirements would be useful for accurate logistical planning. Generate a predictive equation estimating energy requirements of SOF. Retrospective analysis of data collected from SOF personnel engaged in 12 different SOF training scenarios. Energy expenditure and total body water were determined using the doubly-labeled water technique. Physical activity level was determined as daily energy expenditure divided by resting metabolic rate. Physical activity level was broken into quartiles (0 = mission prep, 1 = common warrior tasks, 2 = battle drills, 3 = specialized intense activity) to generate a physical activity factor (PAF). Regression analysis was used to construct two predictive equations (Model A; body mass and PAF, Model B; fat-free mass and PAF) estimating daily energy expenditures. Average measured energy expenditure during SOF training was 4468 (range: 3700 to 6300) Kcal·d- 1 . Regression analysis revealed that physical activity level ( r  = 0.91; P  plan appropriate feeding regimens to meet SOF nutritional requirements across their mission profile.

  1. A shared-world conceptual model for integrating space station life sciences telescience operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Vicki; Bosley, John

    1988-01-01

    Mental models of the Space Station and its ancillary facilities will be employed by users of the Space Station as they draw upon past experiences, perform tasks, and collectively plan for future activities. The operational environment of the Space Station will incorporate telescience, a new set of operational modes. To investigate properties of the operational environment, distributed users, and the mental models they employ to manipulate resources while conducting telescience, an integrating shared-world conceptual model of Space Station telescience is proposed. The model comprises distributed users and resources (active elements); agents who mediate interactions among these elements on the basis of intelligent processing of shared information; and telescience protocols which structure the interactions of agents as they engage in cooperative, responsive interactions on behalf of users and resources distributed in space and time. Examples from the life sciences are used to instantiate and refine the model's principles. Implications for transaction management and autonomy are discussed. Experiments employing the model are described which the authors intend to conduct using the Space Station Life Sciences Telescience Testbed currently under development at Ames Research Center.

  2. Estimating energy requirement in cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) nut processing operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jekayinfa, S.O. [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, P.M.B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State (Nigeria); Bamgboye, A.I. [Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Ibadan, Ibadan (Nigeria)

    2006-07-15

    This work deals with a study on estimation of energy consumption in eight readily defined unit operations of cashew nut processing. Data for analysis were collected from nine cashew nut mills stratified into small, medium and large categories to represent different mechanization levels. Series of equations were developed to easily compute requirements of electricity, fuel and labour for each of the unit operations. The computation of energy use was done using spreadsheet program on Microsoft Excel. The results of application test of the equations show that the total energy intensity in the cashew nut mills varied between 0.21 and 1.161MJ/kg. Electrical energy intensity varied between 0.0052 and 0.029MJ/kg, while thermal energy intensity varied from 0.085 to 1.064MJ/kg. The two identified energy intensive operations in cashew nut processing are cashew nut drying and cashew nut roasting, altogether accounting for over 85% of the total energy consumption in all the three mill categories. Thermal energy, obtained from diesel fuel, represented about 90% of the unit energy cost for cashew nut processing. The developed equations have therefore proven to be a useful tool for carrying out budgeting, forecasting energy requirements and planning plant expansion. (author)

  3. Performance and operational economics estimates for a coal gasification combined-cycle cogeneration powerplant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nainiger, J. J.; Burns, R. K.; Easley, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    A performance and operational economics analysis is presented for an integrated-gasifier, combined-cycle (IGCC) system to meet the steam and baseload electrical requirements. The effect of time variations in steam and electrial requirements is included. The amount and timing of electricity purchases from sales to the electric utility are determined. The resulting expenses for purchased electricity and revenues from electricity sales are estimated by using an assumed utility rate structure model. Cogeneration results for a range of potential IGCC cogeneration system sizes are compared with the fuel consumption and costs of natural gas and electricity to meet requirements without cogeneration. The results indicate that an IGCC cogeneration system could save about 10 percent of the total fuel energy presently required to supply steam and electrical requirements without cogeneration. Also for the assumed future fuel and electricity prices, an annual operating cost savings of 21 percent to 26 percent could be achieved with such a cogeneration system. An analysis of the effects of electricity price, fuel price, and system availability indicates that the IGCC cogeneration system has a good potential for economical operation over a wide range in these assumptions.

  4. Retinal vascular segmentation using superpixel-based line operator and its application to vascular topology estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Tong; Xie, Jianyang; Zhao, Yitian; Zhao, Yifan; Liu, Yue; Wang, Yongtian; Liu, Jiang

    2018-05-09

    Automatic methods of analyzing of retinal vascular networks, such as retinal blood vessel detection, vascular network topology estimation, and arteries/veins classification are of great assistance to the ophthalmologist in terms of diagnosis and treatment of a wide spectrum of diseases. We propose a new framework for precisely segmenting retinal vasculatures, constructing retinal vascular network topology, and separating the arteries and veins. A nonlocal total variation inspired Retinex model is employed to remove the image intensity inhomogeneities and relatively poor contrast. For better generalizability and segmentation performance, a superpixel-based line operator is proposed as to distinguish between lines and the edges, thus allowing more tolerance in the position of the respective contours. The concept of dominant sets clustering is adopted to estimate retinal vessel topology and classify the vessel network into arteries and veins. The proposed segmentation method yields competitive results on three public data sets (STARE, DRIVE, and IOSTAR), and it has superior performance when compared with unsupervised segmentation methods, with accuracy of 0.954, 0.957, and 0.964, respectively. The topology estimation approach has been applied to five public databases (DRIVE,STARE, INSPIRE, IOSTAR, and VICAVR) and achieved high accuracy of 0.830, 0.910, 0.915, 0.928, and 0.889, respectively. The accuracies of arteries/veins classification based on the estimated vascular topology on three public databases (INSPIRE, DRIVE and VICAVR) are 0.90.9, 0.910, and 0.907, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed framework has effectively addressed crossover problem, a bottleneck issue in segmentation and vascular topology reconstruction. The vascular topology information significantly improves the accuracy on arteries/veins classification. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  5. Social impact assessment of sugar production operations in South Africa : a social life cycle assessment perspective

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    M.Tech. (Quality and Operations Management) This paper focuses on the social impact of the sugar industry in South Africa. A social impact assessment is a method that aims to assess social features of the product and their positive and negative aspects in terms of its processing of raw material to the final stages of its disposal. The objectives of the study were guided by the guidelines on social life cycle assessment of products of the South African Sugar Industry developed by the United...

  6. Estimation of end of life mobile phones generation: the case study of the Czech Republic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polák, Miloš; Drápalová, Lenka

    2012-08-01

    The volume of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has been rapidly growing in recent years. In the European Union (EU), legislation promoting the collection and recycling of WEEE has been in force since the year 2003. Yet, both current and recently suggested collection targets for WEEE are completely ineffective when it comes to collection and recycling of small WEEE (s-WEEE), with mobile phones as a typical example. Mobile phones are the most sold EEE and at the same time one of appliances with the lowest collection rate. To improve this situation, it is necessary to assess the amount of generated end of life (EoL) mobile phones as precisely as possible. This paper presents a method of assessment of EoL mobile phones generation based on delay model. Within the scope of this paper, the method has been applied on the Czech Republic data. However, this method can be applied also to other EoL appliances in or outside the Czech Republic. Our results show that the average total lifespan of Czech mobile phones is surprisingly long, exactly 7.99 years. We impute long lifespan particularly to a storage time of EoL mobile phones at households, estimated to be 4.35 years. In the years 1990-2000, only 45 thousands of EoL mobile phones were generated in the Czech Republic, while in the years 2000-2010 the number grew to 6.5 million pieces and it is estimated that in the years 2010-2020 about 26.3 million pieces will be generated. Current European legislation sets targets on collection and recycling of WEEE in general, but no specific collection target for EoL mobile phone exists. In the year 2010 only about 3-6% of Czech EoL mobile phones were collected for recovery and recycling. If we make similar estimation using an estimated average EU value, then within the next 10 years about 1.3 billion of EoL mobile phones would be available for recycling in the EU. This amount contains about 31 tonnes of gold and 325 tonnes of silver. Since Europe is dependent on import

  7. Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Sun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

  8. Evaluation of damping estimates by automated Operational Modal Analysis for offshore wind turbine tower vibrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bajrić, Anela; Høgsberg, Jan Becker; Rüdinger, Finn

    2018-01-01

    Reliable predictions of the lifetime of offshore wind turbine structures are influenced by the limited knowledge concerning the inherent level of damping during downtime. Error measures and an automated procedure for covariance driven Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) techniques has been proposed....... In order to obtain algorithmic independent answers, three identification techniques are compared: Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), covariance driven Stochastic Subspace Identification (COV-SSI) and the Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition (EFDD). Discrepancies between automated identification...... techniques are discussed and illustrated with respect to signal noise, measurement time, vibration amplitudes and stationarity of the ambient response. The best bias-variance error trade-off of damping estimates is obtained by the COV-SSI. The proposed automated procedure is validated by real vibration...

  9. Lipschitz estimates for commutators of singular integral operators associated with the sections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangqing Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Let H be Monge-Ampère singular integral operator, b ∈ L i p F β $b\\in Lip_{\\mathcal{F}}^{\\beta}$ , and 1 / q = 1 / p − β $1/q=1/p-\\beta$ . It is proved that the commutator [ b , H ] $[b,H]$ is bounded from L p ( R n , d μ $L^{p}(\\mathbb{R}^{n},d\\mu$ to L q ( R n , d μ $L^{q}(\\mathbb{R}^{n},d\\mu$ for 1 < p < 1 / β $1< p<1/\\beta$ and from H F p ( R n $H^{p}_{\\mathcal{F}}(\\mathbb{R}^{n}$ to L q ( R n , d μ $L^{q}(\\mathbb{R}^{n},d\\mu$ for 1 / ( 1 + β < p ≤ 1 $1/(1+\\beta< p\\leq1$ . For the extreme case p = 1 / ( 1 + β $p=1/(1+\\beta$ , a weak estimate is given.

  10. Estimation of Operating Condition of Appliances Using Circuit Current Data on Electric Distribution Boards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Yagita, Yoshie

    The Energy management systems (EMS) on demand sides are expected as a method to enhance the capability of supply and demand balancing of a power system under the anticipated penetration of renewable energy generation such as Photovoltaics (PV). Elucidation of energy consumption structure in a building is one of important elements for realization of EMS and contributes to the extraction of potential energy saving. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of operating condition of household appliances using circuit current data on an electric distribution board. Circuit current data are broken down by their shape using a self-organization map method and aggregated by appliance based on customers' information of appliance possessed. Proposed method is verified using residential energy consumption measurement survey data.

  11. Estimation of end of life mobile phones generation: The case study of the Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polák, Miloš; Drápalová, Lenka

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► In this paper, we define lifespan of mobile phones and estimate their average total lifespan. ► The estimation of lifespan distribution is based on large sample of EoL mobile phones. ► Total lifespan of Czech mobile phones is surprisingly long, exactly 7.99 years. ► In the years 2010–20, about 26.3 million pieces of EoL mobile phones will be generated in the Czech Republic. - Abstract: The volume of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has been rapidly growing in recent years. In the European Union (EU), legislation promoting the collection and recycling of WEEE has been in force since the year 2003. Yet, both current and recently suggested collection targets for WEEE are completely ineffective when it comes to collection and recycling of small WEEE (s-WEEE), with mobile phones as a typical example. Mobile phones are the most sold EEE and at the same time one of appliances with the lowest collection rate. To improve this situation, it is necessary to assess the amount of generated end of life (EoL) mobile phones as precisely as possible. This paper presents a method of assessment of EoL mobile phones generation based on delay model. Within the scope of this paper, the method has been applied on the Czech Republic data. However, this method can be applied also to other EoL appliances in or outside the Czech Republic. Our results show that the average total lifespan of Czech mobile phones is surprisingly long, exactly 7.99 years. We impute long lifespan particularly to a storage time of EoL mobile phones at households, estimated to be 4.35 years. In the years 1990–2000, only 45 thousands of EoL mobile phones were generated in the Czech Republic, while in the years 2000–2010 the number grew to 6.5 million pieces and it is estimated that in the years 2010–2020 about 26.3 million pieces will be generated. Current European legislation sets targets on collection and recycling of WEEE in general, but no specific collection target

  12. Development of an operator`s mental model acquisition system. 1. Estimation of a physical mental model acquisition system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikeda, Mitsuru; Mizoguchi, Riichirou [Inst. of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka Univ., Ibaraki (Japan); Yoshikawa, Shinji; Ozawa, Kenji

    1997-03-01

    This report describes a technical survey of acquisition method of an operator`s understanding for functions and structures of his target nuclear plant. This method is to play a key role in the information processing framework to support on-training operators in forming their knowledge of the nuclear plants. This kind of technical framework is aiming at enhancing human operator`s ability to cope with anomaly plant situations which are difficult to expect from preceding experiences or engineering surveillance. In these cases, cause identifications and responding operation selections are desired to made not only empirically but also based on thoughts about possible phenomena to take place within the nuclear plant. This report focuses on a particular element technique, defined as `explanation-based knowledge acquisition`, as the candidate technique to potentially be extended to meet the requirement written above, and discusses about applicability to the learning support system and about necessary improvements, to identify future technical developments. (author)

  13. Waste Estimates for a Future Recycling Plant in the US Based Upon AREVA Operating Experience - 13206

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foare, Genevieve; Meze, Florian [AREVA E and P, SGN - 1, rue des Herons, 78182 Montigny-le-Bretonneux (France); Bader, Sven; McGee, Don; Murray, Paul [AREVA Federal Services LLC, 7207 IBM Drive, Mail Code CLT- 1D, Charlotte NC 28262 (United States); Prud' homme, Pascal [AREVA NC SA - 1, place Jean Millier, 92084 Paris La Defense CEDEX (France)

    2013-07-01

    Estimates of process and secondary wastes produced by a recycling plant built in the U.S., which is composed of a used nuclear fuel (UNF) reprocessing facility and a mixed oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication facility, are performed as part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored study [1]. In this study, a set of common inputs, assumptions, and constraints were identified to allow for comparison of these wastes between different industrial teams. AREVA produced a model of a reprocessing facility, an associated fuel fabrication facility, and waste treatment facilities to develop the results for this study. These facilities were divided into a number of discrete functional areas for which inlet and outlet flow streams were clearly identified to allow for an accurate determination of the radionuclide balance throughout the facility and the waste streams. AREVA relied primarily on its decades of experience and feedback from its La Hague (reprocessing) and MELOX (MOX fuel fabrication) commercial operating facilities in France to support this assessment. However, to perform these estimates for a U.S. facility with different regulatory requirements and to take advantage of some technological advancements, such as in the potential treatment of off-gases, some deviations from this experience were necessary. A summary of AREVA's approach and results for the recycling of 800 metric tonnes of initial heavy metal (MTIHM) of LWR UNF per year into MOX fuel under the assumptions and constraints identified for this DOE study are presented. (authors)

  14. Estimation of Remained defects in a Safety-Critical Software using Bayesian Belief Network of Software Development Life Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea Jung

    2015-01-01

    Some researchers recognized Bayesian belief network (BBN) method to be a promising method of quantifying software reliability. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) comprehensively reviewed various quantitative software reliability methods to identify the most promising methods for use in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) of digital systems of NPPs against a set of the most desirable characteristics developed therein. BBNs are recognized as a promising way of quantifying software reliability and are useful for integrating many aspects of software engineering and quality assurance. The method explicitly incorporates important factors relevant to reliability, such as the quality of the developer, the development process, problem complexity, testing effort, and the operation environment. In this work, a BBN model was developed to estimate the number of remained defects in a safety-critical software based on the quality evaluation of software development life cycle (SDLC). Even though a number of software reliability evaluation methods exist, none of them can be applicable to the safety-critical software in an NPP because software quality in terms of PDF is required for the PSA

  15. Should solar photovoltaics be deployed sooner because of long operating life at low, predictable cost?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zweibel, Ken

    2010-01-01

    Governments subsidize the deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) because PV is deployed for societal purposes. About seven thousand megawatts were deployed in 2009 and over 10,000 are expected in 2010. Yet this is too slow to strongly affect energy and environmental challenges. Faster societal deployment is slowed because PV is perceived to be too costly. Classic economic evaluations would put PV electricity in the range of 15-50 c/kWh, depending on local sunlight and system size. But PV has an unusual, overlooked value: systems can last for a very long time with almost no operating costs, much like, e.g., the Hoover Dam. This long life is rarely taken into account. The private sector cannot use it because far-future cash flow does not add to asset value. But we should not be evaluating PV by business metrics. Governments already make up the difference in return on investment needed to deploy PV. PV deployment is government infrastructure development or direct purchases. Thus the question is: Does the usually unevaluated aspect of long life at predictably low operating costs further motivate governments to deploy more PV, sooner?

  16. The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoenig, John M; Then, Amy Y.-H.; Babcock, Elizabeth A.; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.; Hesp, Sybrand A.

    2016-01-01

    There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

  17. The estimation of the control rods absorber burn-up during the VVER-1000 operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolshagin, Sergey N.; Gorodkov, Sergey S.; Sukhino-Khomenko, Evgeniya A. [National Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-09-15

    The isotopic composition of the control rods absorber changes under the neutron flux influence, so the control rods efficiency can decrease. In the VVER-1000 control rods boron carbide and dysprosium titanate are used as absorbing materials. In boric part the efficiency decreases due to the {sup 10}B isotope burn-up. Dysprosium isotopes turn into other absorbing isotopes, so the absorbing properties of dysprosium part decrease to a lesser degree. Also the control rod's shells may be deformed as a consequence of boron carbide radiation swelling. This fact should be considered in substantiation of control rods durability. For the estimation of the control rods absorber burn-up two models are developed: VVER-1000 3-D fuel assembly with control rods partially immersed (imitation of the control rods operation in the working group) and VVER-1000 3-D fuel assembly with control rods, located at the upper limit switch (imitation of the control rods operation in groups of the emergency shutdown system). (orig.)

  18. Operational Definitions of Sexual Orientation and Estimates of Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Derrick D.; Blosnich, John R.; Farmer, Grant W.; Adams, Brian J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Increasing attention to the health of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) populations comes with requisite circumspection about measuring sexual orientation in surveys. However, operationalizing these variables also requires considerable thought. This research sought to document the consequences of different operational definitions of sexual orientation by examining variation in health risk behaviors. Methods Using Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, we examined how operational definitions of sexual behavior and sexual identity influenced differences among three health behaviors known to disparately affect LGB populations: smoking, suicide risk, and methamphetamine use. Sexual behavior and sexual identity were also examined together to explore if they captured unique sources of variability in behavior. Results Estimates of health disparities changed as a result of using either sexual behavior or sexual identity. Youth who reported their sexual identity as “not sure” also had increased odds of health risk behavior. Disaggregating bisexual identity and behavior from same-sex identity and behavior frequently resulted in the attenuation or elimination of health disparities that would have otherwise been attributable to exclusively same-sex sexual minorities. Finally, sexual behavior and sexual identity explained unique and significant sources of variability in all three health behaviors. Conclusion Researchers using different operational definitions of sexual orientation could draw different conclusions, even when analyzing the same data, depending upon how they chose to represent sexual orientation in analyses. We discuss implications that these manipulations have on data interpretation and provide specific recommendations for best-practices when analyzing sexual orientation data collected from adolescent populations. PMID:25110718

  19. Value estimation of end of life vehicles as a source of competitive advantage for dismantling station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Kosacka

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available   Background: End of Life vehicles become an emerging problem because of the type of waste which they are. Each country is creating own recycling network where ELVs are well secured and recycled. Poland is a country where the system is not working correct because of a high absorption of ELVs by illegal dismantling entities which are more competitive than legal elements of recycling network. The problem is well known but there is still lack of solution. The purpose of this article is to present the concept of tools for the valuation of ELVs in order to improve the competitiveness of disassembly stations. Methods: The research methodology consists of a literature review as well as observations, surveys, BPMN and UML diagrams. On the basis of literature review and observations the problem was identified. The surveys were elaborated in order to identify requirements for the concept of the tool. BPMN and UML diagrams were used to model the processes in dismantling station and the information flow between the user and the tool. Results: There was established a concept of the tool - ELV's Calculator which support decisions of ELV's value estimation. Conclusions: Improving competitiveness of legal dismantling station is extremely important issue in order to provide safe for Environment and People and economically justified ELVs' management. Legal entities have to follow the law what makes their business cost higher. This paper provides a solution of encouraging people to return ELVs to legal dismantlers by offering them price adequate to market demand.    

  20. A new tool for life cycle inventories of agricultural machinery operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Lovarelli

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The interest in environmental assessments about agricultural processes is fast growing and asking for new tools for accurate impact evaluations. The methodology commonly used to go through these studies is the life cycle assessment, of which the inventory phase (life cycle inventory, LCI is an essential step. For studies focusing on agricultural productions, the completion of LCI is particularly complex: taking into account the pedo-climatic and mechanical operative variability is evidently difficult. However, the prediction of the environmental impact of mechanical operations caused by the agricultural sector is essential to quantify the impact categories for which it is responsible. A new tool, ENVIAM, was developed to complete LCI to guarantee the availability of local data that describe the mechanical and pedo-climatic conditions occurring in the Po Valley area and widely applicable as well. It calculates mechanical power requests, directly consumed inputs (i.e., fuel, lubricant and material consumption of a productive system by taking into account soil texture, specific machinery operations and coupling solutions as defined by the user. A subdivision of working time and defined engine load have been considered to calculate fuel consumption; with regard to outputs, exhaust gases emissions from internal combustion engines have been assessed by evaluating the emissive stages of belonging as stated by the EU Directive. A case study was also performed to highlight the differences that occur when an analysis is fulfilled in a context with features different from the average, and resulted in significant variations for the inventory. In more details, a comparison was carried out both with Ecoinvent database and within ENVIAM. With regard to fuel consumption, by changing the soil texture, the analysis showed a range between 64%-184% for sandy and clay soils, respectively, if compared with medium texture ones. With this tool, local contexts defined

  1. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

  2. ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-02-01

    This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

  3. Life cycle cost estimation and environmental valuation of coal mine tailings management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joni Safaat Adiansyah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable mining management is increasingly seen as an important issue in achieving a social license to operate for mining companies. This study describes the life cycle cost (LCC analysis and environmental valuation for several coal mine tailings management scenarios. The economic feasibility of six different options was assessed using the Net Present Value (NPV and Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA methods. These options were belt press (OPT 1, tailings paste (OPT 2, thickened tailings (OPT 3, and OPT 1 with technology improvement and renewable energy sources (OPT 1A-C. The results revealed that OPT 1A (belt press technology with stack cell flotation was the first preference in terms of LCC while OPT 1C (belt press technology with stack cell flotation and 10% wind energy generated the highest benefits value (BCA compared to the other options. The LCC and BCA components and the volume of GHG emissions were used to determine the best option. Normalization of these three elements resulted in the selection of Option 1C as being the most cost-effective option.

  4. Residual life and strength estimates of aircraft structural components with MSD/MED

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ripudaman; Park, Jai H.; Atluri, Satya N.

    1994-01-01

    Economic and safe operation of the flight vehicles flying beyond their initial design life calls for an in-depth structural integrity evaluation of all components with potential for catastrophic damages. Fuselage panels with cracked skin and/or stiffening elements is one such example. A three level analytical approach is developed to analyze the pressurized fuselage stiffened shell panels with damaged skin or stiffening elements. A global finite element analysis is first carried out to obtain the load flow pattern through the damaged panel. As an intermediate step, the damaged zone is treated as a spatially three-dimensional structure modeled by plate and shell finite elements, with all the neighboring elements that can alter the stress state at the crack tip. This is followed by the Schwartz-Neumann alternating method for local analysis to obtain the relevant crack tip parameters that govern the onset of fracture and the crack growth. The methodology developed is generic in nature and aims at handling a large fraction of problem areas identified by the Industry Committee on Wide-Spread Fatigue Damage.

  5. Operational energy in the life cycle of residential dwellings: The experience of Spain and Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, Oscar; Castells, Francesc; Sonnemann, Guido

    2010-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been applied within the residential building sector of two buildings, one in each a developed (Spain) and a developing (Colombia) country. The main goal of this paper involves the environmental loads and also brings together the operational energy for activities during the operation phase such as HVAC, domestic hot water, electrical appliances, cooking and illumination. The present research compares two real scenarios: Situation 1, where 100% of the dwelling's energy is supplied with electricity only and Situation 2, where dwellings can be operated with natural gas plus electricity. The results for the environmental impacts using natural gas plus electricity show that of the Spanish environmental impacts air conditioning had the highest impact with approximately 27-42% due to the electricity used to power it. In Colombian results showed that electrical appliances had the highest environmental impacts in the same order of magnitude with approximately 60% and cooking had the best reduction of emissions due to the use of natural gas, from 10% down to less than 2%. The origin of the energy source used in each Country plays an important role to minimize environmental impacts, as was demonstrated by the environmental impacts of its use in Colombia where 78% of the electricity came from hydroelectric plants whereas in Spain it is more mixed, fossil fuels represented 55%, nuclear 18% and wind 9%. In summary, LCA has been applied because this methodology supports the decision making to concern environmental sustainability.

  6. Overview of plant life management for long term operation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, K.S.; Vincze, P.; Bychkov, A.

    2014-01-01

    Many IAEA member states have given high priority to licensing their nuclear power plants to operate for terms longer than the time frame originally anticipated (generally 40 years). The task of managing plant ageing is assigned in most member states to an engineering specialty called 'plant life management' (PLiM) applying a systematic analysis methodology to System Structure Components (SSCs) ageing. In many countries, the safety performance of nuclear power plants is periodically assessed and characterized via the periodic safety review (PSR) process. Regulatory review and acceptance of PSRs constitutes for these countries the licensing requirement for continued operation of the plant to the following PSR cycle (usually 10 years). In the USA and in other countries operating US designed plants, instead of PSR process, a license renewal application (LRA) process is followed, which requires certain prerequisites such as ageing management programs, particularly for passive irreplaceable SSCs. Active components are normally addressed via the maintenance rule (MR) requirements and other established regulatory processes. A third group of member states have adopted a combined approach that incorporates elements of both the PSR process and selected LRA specific requirements, such as time limited ageing analysis. The article ends with some IAEA recommendations for the implementation of national PLiM programs

  7. Development of Estimating Equation of Machine Operational Skill by Utilizing Eye Movement Measurement and Analysis of Stress and Fatigue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Suzuki

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For an establishment of a skill evaluation method for human support systems, development of an estimating equation of the machine operational skill is presented. Factors of the eye movement such as frequency, velocity, and moving distance of saccade were computed using the developed eye gaze measurement system, and the eye movement features were determined from these factors. The estimating equation was derived through an outlier test (to eliminate nonstandard data and a principal component analysis (to find dominant components. Using a cooperative carrying task (cc-task simulator, the eye movement and operational data of the machine operators were recorded, and effectiveness of the derived estimating equation was investigated. As a result, it was confirmed that the estimating equation was effective strongly against actual simple skill levels (r=0.56–0.84. In addition, effects of internal condition such as fatigue and stress on the estimating equation were analyzed. Using heart rate (HR and coefficient of variation of R-R interval (Cvrri. Correlation analysis between these biosignal indexes and the estimating equation of operational skill found that the equation reflected effects of stress and fatigue, although the equation could estimate the skill level adequately.

  8. Estimation of Bank Erosion Due To Reservoir Operation in Cascade (Case Study: Citarum Cascade Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Legowo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Sedimentation is such a crucial issue to be noted once the accumulated sediment begins to fill the reservoir dead storage, this will then influence the long-term reservoir operation. The sediment accumulated requires a serious attention for it may influence the storage capacity and other reservoir management of activities. The continuous inflow of sediment to the reservoir will decrease the capacity of reservoir storage, the reservoir value in use, and the useful age of reservoir. Because of that, the rate of the sediment needs to be delayed as possible. In this research, the delay of the sediment rate is considered based on the rate of flow of landslide of the reservoir slope. The rate of flow of the sliding slope can be minimized by way of each reservoir autonomous efforts. This effort can be performed through; the regulation of fluctuating rate of reservoir surface current that does not cause suddenly drawdown and upraising as well. The research model is compiled using the searching technique of Non Linear Programming (NLP.The rate of bank erosion for the reservoir variates from 0.0009 to 0.0048 MCM/year, which is no sigrificant value to threaten the life time of reservoir.Mean while the rate of watershed sediment has a significant value, i.e: 3,02 MCM/year for Saguling that causes to fullfill the storage capacity in 40 next years (from years 2008.

  9. Lagged life cycle structures for food products: Their role in global marketing, their determinants and some problems in their estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Allan; Gede, Mads Peter; Grunert, Klaus G.

    cycles for different product categories may be lagged (type II lag) because changes in economic and other factors will result in demands for different products. Identifying lagged life cycle structures major importance in global marketing of food products. The problems in arriving at such estimates...

  10. Municipal solid waste conversion to transportation fuels: a life-cycle estimation of global warming potential and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pressley, Phillip N.; Aziz, Tarek N.; DeCarolis, Joseph F.

    2014-01-01

    This paper utilizes life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate the conversion of U.S. municipal solid waste (MSW) to liquid transportation fuels via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch (FT). The model estimates the cumulative energy demand and global warming potential (GWP) associated...

  11. Using operational data to estimate the reliable yields of water-supply wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misstear, Bruce D. R.; Beeson, Sarah

    The reliable yield of a water-supply well depends on many different factors, including the properties of the well and the aquifer; the capacities of the pumps, raw-water mains, and treatment works; the interference effects from other wells; and the constraints imposed by ion licences, water quality, and environmental issues. A relatively simple methodology for estimating reliable yields has been developed that takes into account all of these factors. The methodology is based mainly on an analysis of water-level and source-output data, where such data are available. Good operational data are especially important when dealing with wells in shallow, unconfined, fissure-flow aquifers, where actual well performance may vary considerably from that predicted using a more analytical approach. Key issues in the yield-assessment process are the identification of a deepest advisable pumping water level, and the collection of the appropriate well, aquifer, and operational data. Although developed for water-supply operators in the United Kingdom, this approach to estimating the reliable yields of water-supply wells using operational data should be applicable to a wide range of hydrogeological conditions elsewhere. Résumé La productivité d'un puits capté pour l'adduction d'eau potable dépend de différents facteurs, parmi lesquels les propriétés du puits et de l'aquifère, la puissance des pompes, le traitement des eaux brutes, les effets d'interférences avec d'autres puits et les contraintes imposées par les autorisations d'exploitation, par la qualité des eaux et par les conditions environnementales. Une méthodologie relativement simple d'estimation de la productivité qui prenne en compte tous ces facteurs a été mise au point. Cette méthodologie est basée surtout sur une analyse des données concernant le niveau piézométrique et le débit de prélèvement, quand ces données sont disponibles. De bonnes données opérationnelles sont particuli

  12. Perspectives on greenhouse gas emission estimates based on Australian wastewater treatment plant operating data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Haas, D W; Pepperell, C; Foley, J

    2014-01-01

    Primary operating data were collected from forty-six wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located across three states within Australia. The size range of plants was indicatively from 500 to 900,000 person equivalents. Direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions were calculated using a mass balance approach and default emission factors, based on Australia's National Greenhouse Energy Reporting (NGER) scheme and IPCC guidelines. A Monte Carlo-type combined uncertainty analysis was applied to the some of the key emission factors in order to study sensitivity. The results suggest that Scope 2 (indirect emissions due to electrical power purchased from the grid) dominate the emissions profile for most of the plants (indicatively half to three quarters of the average estimated total emissions). This is only offset for the relatively small number of plants (in this study) that have significant on-site power generation from biogas, or where the water utility purchases grid electricity generated from renewable sources. For plants with anaerobic digestion, inventory data issues around theoretical biogas generation, capture and measurement were sometimes encountered that can skew reportable emissions using the NGER methodology. Typically, nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions dominated the Scope 1 (direct) emissions. However, N(2)O still only accounted for approximately 10 to 37% of total emissions. This conservative estimate is based on the 'default' NGER steady-state emission factor, which amounts to 1% of nitrogen removed through biological nitrification-denitrification processing in the plant (or indicatively 0.7 to 0.8% of plant influent total nitrogen). Current research suggests that true N(2)O emissions may be much lower and certainly not steady-state. The results of this study help to place in context research work that is focused on direct emissions from WWTPs (including N(2)O, methane and carbon dioxide of non-biogenic origin). For example, whereas non-biogenic CO(2

  13. New population and life expectancy estimates for the Indigenous population of Australia's Northern Territory, 1966-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Wilson

    Full Text Available The Indigenous population of Australia suffers considerable disadvantage across a wide range of socio-economic indicators, and is therefore the focus of many policy initiatives attempting to 'close the gap' between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Unfortunately, past population estimates have proved unreliable as denominators for these indicators. The aim of the paper is to contribute more robust estimates for the Northern Territory Indigenous population for the period 1966-2011, and hence estimate one of the most important of socio-economic indicators, life expectancy at birth.A consistent time series of population estimates from 1966 to 2011, based off the more reliable 2011 official population estimates, was created by a mix of reverse and forward cohort survival. Adjustments were made to ensure sensible sex ratios and consistency with recent birth registrations. Standard life table methods were employed to estimate life expectancy. Drawing on an approach from probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals surrounding population numbers and life expectancies were estimated.The Northern Territory Indigenous population in 1966 numbered between 23,800 and 26,100, compared to between 66,100 and 73,200 in 2011. In 1966-71 Indigenous life expectancy at birth lay between 49.1 and 56.9 years for males and between 49.7 and 57.9 years for females, whilst by 2006-11 it had increased to between 60.5 and 66.2 years for males and between 65.4 and 70.8 for females. Over the last 40 years the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed, fluctuating at about 17 years for both males and females. Whilst considerable progress has been made in closing the gap in under-five mortality, at most other ages the mortality rate differential has increased.A huge public health challenge remains. Efforts need to be redoubled to reduce the large gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.

  14. Estimation of left ventricular operating stiffness from Doppler early filling deceleration time in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M J; Firstenberg, M S; Greenberg, N L; Smedira, N; Rodriguez, L; Prior, D; Thomas, J D

    2001-02-01

    Shortened early transmitral deceleration times (E(DT)) have been qualitatively associated with increased filling pressure and reduced survival in patients with cardiac disease and increased left ventricular operating stiffness (K(LV)). An equation relating K(LV) quantitatively to E(DT) has previously been described in a canine model but not in humans. During several varying hemodynamic conditions, we studied 18 patients undergoing open-heart surgery. Transesophageal echocardiographic two-dimensional volumes and Doppler flows were combined with high-fidelity left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) pressures to determine K(LV). From digitized Doppler recordings, E(DT) was measured and compared against changes in LV and LA diastolic volumes and pressures. E(DT) (180 +/- 39 ms) was inversely associated with LV end-diastolic pressures (r = -0.56, P = 0.004) and net atrioventricular stiffness (r = -0.55, P = 0.006) but had its strongest association with K(LV) (r = -0.81, P < 0.001). K(LV) was predicted assuming a nonrestrictive orifice (K(nonrest)) from E(DT) as K(nonrest) = (0.07/E(DT))(2) with K(LV) = 1.01 K(nonrest) - 0.02; r = 0.86, P < 0.001, DeltaK (K(nonrest) - K(LV)) = 0.02 +/- 0.06 mm Hg/ml. In adults with cardiac disease, E(DT) provides an accurate estimate of LV operating stiffness and supports its application as a practical noninvasive index in the evaluation of diastolic function.

  15. Development of Unavailability Estimation Method Considering Various Operating States of Dynamic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Kang, Hyun Gook; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic system can be defined as a system which has a state at any given time which can be represented by a point in an appropriate state space. In order to analyze the dynamic systems, various failure mechanisms with time requirements such as the failure orders of sub-components and the changes of system states with time need to be modeled and quantitatively estimated. Since the conventional static fault tree analysis has imitations when applied to the dynamic systems, two types of dynamic fault tree methods have been developed. Dugan et al. proposed four dynamic gates to handle failure mechanisms composed of sequence-dependent events and Cepin and Mavko proposed the use of house events to handle failure mechanisms of dynamic systems which have various operating states with time. However, modeling a fault tree from a complex system is a cumbersome task even for the experts who is familiar to it, and demands a great amount of attention and caution to avoid errors. In order to model complex systems more conveniently from system block diagrams compared to the fault tree, a reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) was developed by introduction of general gates to a conventional reliability graph. The RGGG is an easy-to-modeling method as powerful as fault tree. It was also improved to analyze the dynamic failure mechanisms composed of sequence-dependent events with the addition of dynamic nodes. In this paper, unavailability assessment method for dynamic systems which have various operating states is proposed using the RGGG method. To achieve this, a novel concept of reliability matrix for the RGGG is introduced and Bayesian Networks are used for the quantification

  16. SCC life estimation based on cracks initiated from the corrosion pits of bolting material SCM435 used in steam turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Hitomi; Ochi, Mayumi; Fujiwara, Isao; Momoo, Takashi

    2003-01-01

    Life estimation was performed for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that occurs in deaerated and wet hot pure steam at the bottoms of the threads of bolts made of SCM435 (equivalent to AISI 4137) used in steam turbine. SCC is believed to occur when corrosion pits are formed and grow to critical size, after which SCC is initiated and cracks propagate until the critical fracture toughness value is reached. Calculations were performed using laboratory and field data. The results showed that, for a 40mm diameter bolt with 0.2% offset strength of 820MPa, the critical crack depth for straight-front cracks was 5.4mm. The SCC life depends on the lubricant used; the SCC life estimated from this value is approximately 70,000 hours when graphite is used as a lubricant. (author)

  17. Effect of peri-operative chemotherapy on the quality of life of patients with early breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiebert, G. M.; Hanneke, J.; de Haes, J. Hanneke C. J. M.; Kievit, J.; van de Velde, C. J.

    1990-01-01

    Since chemotherapy is assumed to have a negative impact on quality of life, the impact of peri-operative chemotherapy on physical, psychological and social well-being and on the activity level of patients with early stage breast cancer was investigated. 24 women received peri-operative chemotherapy

  18. Life cycle assessment of biochar systems: estimating the energetic, economic, and climate change potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Kelli G; Gloy, Brent A; Joseph, Stephen; Scott, Norman R; Lehmann, Johannes

    2010-01-15

    Biomass pyrolysis with biochar returned to soil is a possible strategy for climate change mitigation and reducing fossil fuel consumption. Pyrolysis with biochar applied to soils results in four coproducts: long-term carbon (C) sequestration from stable C in the biochar, renewable energy generation, biochar as a soil amendment, and biomass waste management. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the energy and climate change impacts and the economics of biochar systems. The feedstocks analyzed represent agricultural residues (corn stover), yard waste, and switchgrass energy crops. The net energy of the system is greatest with switchgrass (4899 MJ t(-1) dry feedstock). The net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for both stover and yard waste are negative, at -864 and -885 kg CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions reductions per tonne dry feedstock, respectively. Of these total reductions, 62-66% are realized from C sequestration in the biochar. The switchgrass biochar-pyrolysis system can be a net GHG emitter (+36 kg CO(2)e t(-1) dry feedstock), depending on the accounting method for indirect land-use change impacts. The economic viability of the pyrolysis-biochar system is largely dependent on the costs of feedstock production, pyrolysis, and the value of C offsets. Biomass sources that have a need for waste management such as yard waste have the highest potential for economic profitability (+$69 t(-1) dry feedstock when CO(2)e emission reductions are valued at $80 t(-1) CO(2)e). The transportation distance for feedstock creates a significant hurdle to the economic profitability of biochar-pyrolysis systems. Biochar may at present only deliver climate change mitigation benefits and be financially viable as a distributed system using waste biomass.

  19. Energy consumption during the building life cycle – influence of investment activities and operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vytlačil Dalibor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the dynamic model of maintenance and investments of a building structure and HVAC systems. The aim of the research is finding the time dependent curve for energy consumption and also the cash flow that depends on the investments to energy saving arrangements and operations. The solution is based on the system dynamics method. The method makes possible to interconnect technical and economic parts of the problem. The main parameter in the model is the energy consumption in the building per floor square meter and year. This parameter is influenced by a deterioration of the building structure and the components of the active elements. The investments realized with the aim to decrease the energy consumption is another influence. The example of the computer simulation of the building parameters during the life cycle is presented in the paper.

  20. EFO-LCI: A New Life Cycle Inventory Database of Forestry Operations in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardellini, Giuseppe; Valada, Tatiana; Cornillier, Claire; Vial, Estelle; Dragoi, Marian; Goudiaby, Venceslas; Mues, Volker; Lasserre, Bruno; Gruchala, Arkadiusz; Rørstad, Per Kristian; Neumann, Mathias; Svoboda, Miroslav; Sirgmets, Risto; Näsärö, Olli-Pekka; Mohren, Frits; Achten, Wouter M. J.; Vranken, Liesbet; Muys, Bart

    2018-06-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common methodology to analyze environmental impacts of forestry systems. Although LCA has been widely applied to forestry since the 90s, the LCAs are still often based on generic Life Cycle Inventory (LCI). With the purpose of improving LCA practices in the forestry sector, we developed a European Life Cycle Inventory of Forestry Operations (EFO-LCI) and analyzed the available information to check if within the European forestry sector national differences really exist. We classified the European forests on the basis of "Forest Units" (combinations of tree species and silvicultural practices). For each Forest Unit, we constructed the LCI of their forest management practices on the basis of a questionnaire filled out by national silvicultural experts. We analyzed the data reported to evaluate how they vary over Europe and how they affect LCA results and made freely available the inventory data collected for future use. The study shows important variability in rotation length, type of regeneration, amount and assortments of wood products harvested, and machinery used due to the differences in management practices. The existing variability on these activities sensibly affect LCA results of forestry practices and raw wood production. Although it is practically unfeasible to collect site-specific data for all the LCAs involving forest-based products, the use of less generic LCI data of forestry practice is desirable to improve the reliability of the studies. With the release of EFO-LCI we made a step toward the construction of regionalized LCI for the European forestry sector.

  1. The life cycle greenhouse gas emissions implications of power and hydrogen production for oil sands operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, J.M.; Bergerson, J.A.; MacLean, H.L.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' The Alberta Oil Sands represent a major economic opportunity for Canada, but the industry is also a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One of the sources of these emissions is the use of natural gas for the production of electricity, steam and hydrogen. Due to concerns around resource availability and price volatility, there has been considerable discussion regarding the potential replacement of natural gas with an alternative fuel. While some of the options are non-fossil and could potentially reduce GHG emissions (e.g., nuclear, geothermal, biomass), others have the potential to increase emissions. A comparative life cycle assessment was completed to investigate the relative GHG emissions, energy consumption and financial implications of replacing natural gas with coal, coke, asphaltenes or bitumen for the supply of electricity, steam and hydrogen to oil sands operations. The potential use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) was also investigated as a means of reducing GHG emissions. Preliminary results indicate that, without CCS, the natural gas systems currently in use have lower life cycle GHG emissions than gasification systems using any of the alternative fuels analysed. However, when CCS is implemented in both the coke gasification and natural gas systems, the coke systems have lower GHG emissions and financial costs than the natural gas systems (assuming a 30-year project life and a natural gas price of 6.5 USD/gigajoule). The use of CCS does impose a financial penalty though, indicating that it is unlikely to be implemented without some financial incentive. While this study has limitations and uncertainties, the preliminary results indicate that although the GHG emissions of oil sands development pose a challenge to Canada, there are opportunities available for their abatement. (author)

  2. Operator Splitting Methods for Degenerate Convection-Diffusion Equations I: Convergence and Entropy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holden, Helge; Karlsen, Kenneth H.; Lie, Knut-Andreas

    1999-10-01

    We present and analyze a numerical method for the solution of a class of scalar, multi-dimensional, nonlinear degenerate convection-diffusion equations. The method is based on operator splitting to separate the convective and the diffusive terms in the governing equation. The nonlinear, convective part is solved using front tracking and dimensional splitting, while the nonlinear diffusion equation is solved by a suitable difference scheme. We verify L{sup 1} compactness of the corresponding set of approximate solutions and derive precise entropy estimates. In particular, these results allow us to pass to the limit in our approximations and recover an entropy solution of the problem in question. The theory presented covers a large class of equations. Important subclasses are hyperbolic conservation laws, porous medium type equations, two-phase reservoir flow equations, and strongly degenerate equations coming from the recent theory of sedimentation-consolidation processes. A thorough numerical investigation of the method analyzed in this paper (and similar methods) is presented in a companion paper. (author)

  3. Psychological scaling of expert estimates of human error probabilities: application to nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comer, K.; Gaddy, C.D.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

    1985-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a project to evaluate psychological scaling techniques for use in generating estimates of human error probabilities. The project evaluated two techniques: direct numerical estimation and paired comparisons. Expert estimates were found to be consistent across and within judges. Convergent validity was good, in comparison to estimates in a handbook of human reliability. Predictive validity could not be established because of the lack of actual relative frequencies of error (which will be a difficulty inherent in validation of any procedure used to estimate HEPs). Application of expert estimates in probabilistic risk assessment and in human factors is discussed

  4. Collaborative machining solution extends the operating life of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilmore, Geoff; Becker, Andrew; Vandenberg, James

    2007-01-01

    Examination of a CANDU 6 nuclear power plant's steam generators during a scheduled maintenance outage revealed that the manway ports, part of the ASME Section III, Class 1 pressure boundary, needed repair. The port's inner cover gasket was not seating properly. Integrity was at risk. It was determined that this operation would required a specialized machine to successfully repair the manway port. The solution included the modification of a standard portable boring machine with a custom mounting option to enlarge the counterbore in the primary head shell from a round shape to an obround shape (76 mm of shell thickness, 16 mm radially). The shape change was needed to accommodate the new obround cover and gasket seal design. Once the new major shape was machined, the repair was finished with a Computer Numerically Controlled (CNC) machine developed by the service team to achieve the necessary gasket face location and sizing. The final result met all of the plant's expectations and was completed well within the time allotted during the maintenance shut down. This success was due to the positive partnership and collaboration of the service team and the machine tool manufacture working together to successfully extend the operating life of the nuclear power plant. (author)

  5. Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment. Operational Guide to the ISO Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guinee, J.B. [Centre of Environmental Studies, Leiden University, Leiden (Netherlands)

    2002-04-01

    In 1992 the Centre of Environmental Science (CML) at Leiden University, The Netherlands, published a Guide on Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, setting the standard for a long time. Since then LCA methodology has progressed enormously and the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a series of Standards on LCA. These developments have now been incorporated into a new Handbook on LCA authored by CML in cooperation with a number of other important institutes in the area of LCA. The general aim of this Handbook on LCA is to provide a stepwise 'cookbook' with operational guidelines for conducting an LCA study step-by-step, justified by a scientific background document, based on the ISO Standards for LCA. The different ISO elements and requirements are made operational to the 'best available practice' for each step. CML is strongly involved in the development of a standard methodology to determine environmental impacts of products, i.e., LCA. This is done within international fora such as the Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)

  6. FORMATION OF ESTIMATED CONDITIONS FOR LIFE CYCLE OF DEFORMATION WORK OF THE RAILWAY TRACK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. O. Bondarenko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The purpose of this research is to substantiate the technical limits of the railway track (under reliability status for the formation the regulatory framework for reliability and functional safety of the railway track in Ukraine. Methodology.In order to achieve the goal of research analysis methods of the technical states of elements and trackforms that are typical of operation conditions of the railways in Ukraine were used. Findings.Technical states accordance of elements and trackforms to reliability status under existing regulations was defined. These conditions are based on the track assessments in accordance with the dimensional tape results. The status of each element of the track design affects its deformation work, but the rules are still absent that would connect state of track elements with the state of the track by estimation of the dimensional tape. The reasons on which the limits are not set were established. It was found out which researches are necessary to conduct for their installation. Originality. The classification of the reliability state of a railway track for permitted deviation at the track laying and maintenance was developed. The regulation importance the technical states of ballast section and subgrade for the developed classification was established. Practical value. Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ is a founding member of the Council for Railway Transport of the Commonwealth. This body issued interstate standard State Standard 32192-2013 «Reliability of railway equipment. Basic concepts, terms and definitions». On this basis developed a new interstate standard «Security functional of railway equipment. Terms and definitions». At the same time UZ is a member of the cooperation of railways in International Union of Railway Transport where rules with reliable and safe operation of railways are established in all transport branches. This study will help implement these standards on the railways of Ukraine, improve the

  7. TOPEX: An expert system for estimating and analyzing the operating costs of oil and gas production facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greffioz, J.; Olver, A.J.; Schirmer, P.

    1993-01-01

    TOPEX is a new approach to operating costs estimation of oil and gas installations. It does not rely on knowledge of the capital cost of the installation and uses a computerized expert system (or knowledge base). Estimates are generated from specific details of the equipment and systems and general databases of prices and man hours. A novel methodology has been developed for quantifying the operational complexity of an installation which is then correlated with operations manpower. The use of a computerized application allows rapid calculation of estimates so that what-if and sensitivity studies can be readily done. The knowledge base provides a powerful tool to handle the large amounts of data involved and acts as a repository for the expertise used in its development

  8. Dynamic estimator for determining operating conditions in an internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

    2016-01-05

    Methods and systems are provided for estimating engine performance information for a combustion cycle of an internal combustion engine. Estimated performance information for a previous combustion cycle is retrieved from memory. The estimated performance information includes an estimated value of at least one engine performance variable. Actuator settings applied to engine actuators are also received. The performance information for the current combustion cycle is then estimated based, at least in part, on the estimated performance information for the previous combustion cycle and the actuator settings applied during the previous combustion cycle. The estimated performance information for the current combustion cycle is then stored to the memory to be used in estimating performance information for a subsequent combustion cycle.

  9. An assessment of ozone levels, UV radiation and their occupational health hazard estimation during photocopying operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Bhupendra Pratap, E-mail: bpsingh0783@gmail.com; Kumar, Amit; Singh, Deepak; Punia, Monika; Kumar, Krishan; Jain, Vinod Kumar

    2014-06-30

    Highlights: • First quantitative report of ozone level and UV radiation emission from photocopier. • Ozone production is directly proportional with intensity of photocopy operation. • Ozone level from ground floor is significantly higher than basement photocopier. • Ozone production and UV radiation studied has less correlation during photocopy. • Health hazard issue has been evaluated for effect of UV radiation in terms of SED. - Abstract: This study investigates the levels of ozone concentration along with an ultraviolet (UV) and visible spectral radiation at eight photocopy centers in an academic institute, Delhi. Sampling was done in two types of locations, i.e., basement photocopy centers (BPC) and ground floor photocopy centers (GPC) for 8 h. Measurements of levels of ozone, UV and visible radiation were done by ozone analyzer, UV radiometer and Field spectra instrument, respectively. Results show that the hourly mean concentration of ozone was observed to be in the range of 1.8–10.0 ppb and 5.3–45.8 ppb for BPC and GPC, respectively. In terms UV radiations, energy lies between 5.0 × 10{sup −3} and 7.0 × 10{sup −3} mW/cm{sup 2} for ultraviolet A (UVA), 1.0 × 10{sup −3} and 2.0 × 10{sup −3} mW/cm{sup 2} for ultraviolet B (UVB) and 6.0 × 10{sup −3} and 8.0 × 10{sup −3} mW/cm{sup 2} for ultraviolet C (UVC). Correlation between the UV radiations and ozone production observed was statistically insignificant. To know the health hazard occurred to the workers, the standard erythema dose (SED) value was calculated for emitting UV radiation. The SED was estimated to be in the range of 0.02–0.04 and 0.02–0.32 for direct and indirect methods which is less than the guideline prescribed by Commission Internationale del’ Eclairage (CIE). In nutshell, person involved in photocopy operation for their livelihood must be trained and should have knowledge for the long term gradual build up health problems due to ozone and UV production from

  10. A kernel principal component analysis–based degradation model and remaining useful life estimation for the turbofan engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delong Feng

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Remaining useful life estimation of the prognostics and health management technique is a complicated and difficult research question for maintenance. In this article, we consider the problem of prognostics modeling and estimation of the turbofan engine under complicated circumstances and propose a kernel principal component analysis–based degradation model and remaining useful life estimation method for such aircraft engine. We first analyze the output data created by the turbofan engine thermodynamic simulation that is based on the kernel principal component analysis method and then distinguish the qualitative and quantitative relationships between the key factors. Next, we build a degradation model for the engine fault based on the following assumptions: the engine has only had constant failure (i.e. no sudden failure is included, and the engine has a Wiener process, which is a covariate stand for the engine system drift. To predict the remaining useful life of the turbofan engine, we built a health index based on the degradation model and used the method of maximum likelihood and the data from the thermodynamic simulation model to estimate the parameters of this degradation model. Through the data analysis, we obtained a trend model of the regression curve line that fits with the actual statistical data. Based on the predicted health index model and the data trend model, we estimate the remaining useful life of the aircraft engine as the index reaches zero. At last, a case study involving engine simulation data demonstrates the precision and performance advantages of this prediction method that we propose. At last, a case study involving engine simulation data demonstrates the precision and performance advantages of this proposed method, the precision of the method can reach to 98.9% and the average precision is 95.8%.

  11. Plant life (PLIM) and ageing management (AM) in German NPPs. Prerequisite for long term operation (LTO)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuler, X.

    2010-01-01

    dependant) or based on monitoring of relevant parameters (predictive). The results of these procedures are assessed for each SSC, specifically. For both groups of SSC, in addition to the control of (known) damage mechanisms, all significant plant data (e.g. reports of failures, work orders) and the reports from other plants (incl. exchange of knowledge) are assessed regularly in order to be prepared for new damage mechanisms (and to prevent / control them consequently). This is performed by an appropriate software approach. Within this SSC-specific assessment the entity of measures to control degradation effects is reviewed and modified / extended, if necessary. On the basis of good experiences with the AM procedure and driven by the latest political development (nuclear power is an option in energy supply again) the utilities are re-structuring their plant life management (PLIM), actually. PLIM addresses both safety and economical aspects. Consequently, all SSC of a plant and every possible degradation mechanism have to be considered within PLIM - besides other more not-technical aspects. AM is part of the plant life management. Regarding technical equipment, the PLIM procedure is similar to that established in AM. Depending on the requirements it is necessary to - establish quality during design and manufacture - safeguard this quality in operation by appropriate measures - assess procedure / measures and existing quality, regularly. Living an effective PLIM procedure the utilities are kept on the state of the art; on this basis energy production can be safe and economic at any time. This is an essential prerequisite for long term operation (LTO). (orig.)

  12. Analytical Method to Estimate Fatigue Life Time Duration in Service for Runner Blade Mechanism of Kaplan Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana – Maria Budai

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper present an analytical method that can be used to determianted fatigue life time duration in service for runner blade mechanism of Kaplan turbines. The study was made for lever button of runer blade mechanism using two analytical relation to calculate the maximum number of stress cycles whereupon the mechanism work without any damage. To estimate fatigue life time duration will be used a formula obtained from one of most comon cumulative damage methodology taking in consideration the real exploatation conditions of a specified Kapaln turbine.

  13. Bayesian receiver operating characteristic estimation of multiple tests for diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis in Chadian cattle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borna Müller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bovine tuberculosis (BTB today primarily affects developing countries. In Africa, the disease is present essentially on the whole continent; however, little accurate information on its distribution and prevalence is available. Also, attempts to evaluate diagnostic tests for BTB in naturally infected cattle are scarce and mostly complicated by the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the tested animals. However, diagnostic test evaluation in a given setting is a prerequisite for the implementation of local surveillance schemes and control measures. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We subjected a slaughterhouse population of 954 Chadian cattle to single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT testing and two recently developed fluorescence polarization assays (FPA. Using a Bayesian modeling approach we computed the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of each diagnostic test, the true disease prevalence in the sampled population and the disease status of all sampled animals in the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the sampled animals. In our Chadian setting, SICCT performed better if the cut-off for positive test interpretation was lowered from >4 mm (OIE standard cut-off to >2 mm. Using this cut-off, SICCT showed a sensitivity and specificity of 66% and 89%, respectively. Both FPA tests showed sensitivities below 50% but specificities above 90%. The true disease prevalence was estimated at 8%. Altogether, 11% of the sampled animals showed gross visible tuberculous lesions. However, modeling of the BTB disease status of the sampled animals indicated that 72% of the suspected tuberculosis lesions detected during standard meat inspections were due to other pathogens than Mycobacterium bovis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results have important implications for BTB diagnosis in a high incidence sub-Saharan African setting and demonstrate the practicability of our Bayesian approach for

  14. A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Datta, Koushik; Landis, Michael R. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

  15. Impact of work-related cancers in Taiwan-Estimation with QALY (quality-adjusted life year) and healthcare costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lukas Jyuhn-Hsiarn; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Hung, Mei-Chuan; Wang, Jung-Der

    2016-12-01

    This study estimates the annual numbers of eight work-related cancers, total losses of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and lifetime healthcare expenditures that possibly could be saved by improving occupational health in Taiwan. Three databases were interlinked: the Taiwan Cancer Registry, the National Mortality Registry, and the National Health Insurance Research Database. Annual numbers of work-related cancers were estimated based on attributable fractions (AFs) abstracted from a literature review. The survival functions for eight cancers were estimated and extrapolated to lifetime using a semi-parametric method. A convenience sample of 8846 measurements of patients' quality of life with EQ-5D was collected for utility values and multiplied by survival functions to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancies (QALEs). The loss-of-QALE was obtained by subtracting the QALE of cancer from age- and sex-matched referents simulated from national vital statistics. The lifetime healthcare expenditures were estimated by multiplying the survival probability with mean monthly costs paid by the National Health Insurance for cancer diagnosis and treatment and summing this for the expected lifetime. A total of 3010 males and 726 females with eight work-related cancers were estimated in 2010. Among them, lung cancer ranked first in terms of QALY loss, with an annual total loss-of-QALE of 28,463 QALYs and total lifetime healthcare expenditures of US$36.6 million. Successful prevention of eight work-related cancers would not only avoid the occurrence of 3736 cases of cancer, but would also save more than US$70 million in healthcare costs and 46,750 QALYs for the Taiwan society in 2010.

  16. The impact of the MCU life extension solvent on sludge batch 8 projected operating windows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeler, D.K.; Edwards, T.B.

    2013-01-01

    As a part of the Actinide Removal Process (ARP)/Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) Life Extension Project, a next generation solvent (NGS) and a new strip acid will be deployed. The strip acid will be changed from dilute nitric acid to dilute boric acid (0.01 M). Because of these changes, experimental testing or evaluations with the next generation solvent are required to determine the impact of these changes (if any) to Chemical Process Cell (CPC) activities, glass formulation strategies, and melter operations at the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The introduction of the dilute (0.01 M) boric acid stream into the DWPF flowsheet has a potential impact on glass formulation and frit development efforts since B203 is a major oxide in frits developed for DWPF. Prior knowledge of this stream can be accounted for during frit development efforts but that was not the case for Sludge Batch 8 (SB8). Frit 803 has already been recommended and procured for SB8 processing; altering the frit to account for the incoming boron from the strip effluent (SE) is not an option for SB8. Therefore, the operational robustness of Frit 803 to the introduction of SE including its compositional tolerances (i.e., up to 0.0125M boric acid) is of interest and was the focus of this study. The primary question to be addressed in the current study was: What is the impact (if any) on the projected operating windows for the Frit 803 - SB8 flowsheet to additions of B203 from the SE in the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT)? More specifically, will Frit 803 be robust to the potential compositional changes occurring in the SRAT due to sludge variation, varying additions of ARP and/or the introduction of SE by providing access to waste loadings (WLs) of interest to DWPF? The Measurement Acceptability Region (MAR) results indicate there is very little, if any, impact on the projected operating windows for the Frit 803 - SB8 system regardless of the presence or absence of

  17. Optimisation of battery operating life considering software tasks and their timing behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipskoch, Henrik

    2010-02-19

    Users of mobile embedded systems have an interest in long battery operating life. The longer a system can operate without need for recharge or battery replacement, the more will maintenance cost and the number of faults due to insufficient power supply decrease. Operating life is prolonged by saving energy, which may reduce available processing time. Mobile embedded systems communicating with other participants like other mobiles or radio stations are subject to time guarantees ensuring reliable communication. Thus, methods that save energy by reducing processing time are not only subject to available processing time but subject to the embedded system's time guarantees. To perform parameter optimisations offline, decisions can be taken early at design time, avoiding further computations at run-time. Especially, to compute processor shutdown durations offline, no extra circuitry to monitor system behaviour and to wake up the processor needs to be designed, deployed, or power supplied: only a timer is required. In this work, software tasks are considered sharing one processor. The scheduling algorithm earliest deadline first is assumed, and per-task, a relative deadline is assumed. Tasks may be instantiated arbitrarily as long as this occurrence behaviour is given in the notion of event streams. Scaling of the processor's voltage and processor shutdown are taken into account as methods for saving energy. With given per task worst-case execution times and the tasks' event streams, the real-time feasibility of the energy optimised solutions is proven. The decision which energy saving solution provides longest operating life is made with the help of a battery model. The used real-time feasibility test has the advantage that it can be approximated: this yields an adjustable number of linear optimisation constraints. Reducing the processor's voltage reduces processor frequency, therefore, execution times increase. The resulting slowdown becomes the

  18. Optimisation of battery operating life considering software tasks and their timing behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipskoch, Henrik

    2010-02-19

    Users of mobile embedded systems have an interest in long battery operating life. The longer a system can operate without need for recharge or battery replacement, the more will maintenance cost and the number of faults due to insufficient power supply decrease. Operating life is prolonged by saving energy, which may reduce available processing time. Mobile embedded systems communicating with other participants like other mobiles or radio stations are subject to time guarantees ensuring reliable communication. Thus, methods that save energy by reducing processing time are not only subject to available processing time but subject to the embedded system's time guarantees. To perform parameter optimisations offline, decisions can be taken early at design time, avoiding further computations at run-time. Especially, to compute processor shutdown durations offline, no extra circuitry to monitor system behaviour and to wake up the processor needs to be designed, deployed, or power supplied: only a timer is required. In this work, software tasks are considered sharing one processor. The scheduling algorithm earliest deadline first is assumed, and per-task, a relative deadline is assumed. Tasks may be instantiated arbitrarily as long as this occurrence behaviour is given in the notion of event streams. Scaling of the processor's voltage and processor shutdown are taken into account as methods for saving energy. With given per task worst-case execution times and the tasks' event streams, the real-time feasibility of the energy optimised solutions is proven. The decision which energy saving solution provides longest operating life is made with the help of a battery model. The used real-time feasibility test has the advantage that it can be approximated: this yields an adjustable number of linear optimisation constraints. Reducing the processor's voltage reduces processor frequency, therefore, execution times increase. The resulting slowdown becomes the optimisation variable

  19. A service life extension (SLEP) approach to operating aging aircraft beyond their original design lives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pentz, Alan Carter

    With today's uncertain funding climate (including sequestration and continuing budget resolutions), decision makers face severe budgetary challenges to maintain dominance through all aspects of the Department of Defense (DoD). To meet war-fighting capabilities, the DoD continues to extend aircraft programs beyond their design service lives by up to ten years, and occasionally much more. The budget requires a new approach to traditional extension strategies (i.e., reuse, reset, and reclamation) for structural hardware. While extending service life without careful controls can present a safety concern, future operations planning does not consider how much risk is present when operating within sound structural principles. Traditional structural hardware extension methods drive increased costs. Decision makers often overlook the inherent damage tolerance and fatigue capability of structural components and rely on simple time- and flight-based cycle accumulation when determining aircraft retirement lives. This study demonstrates that decision makers should consider risk in addition to the current extension strategies. Through an evaluation of eight military aircraft programs and the application and simulation of F-18 turbine engine usage data, this dissertation shows that insight into actual aircraft mission data, consideration of fatigue capability, and service extension length are key factors to consider. Aircraft structural components, as well as many critical safety components and system designs, have a predefined level of conservatism and inherent damage tolerance. The methods applied in this study would apply to extensions of other critical structures such as bridges. Understanding how much damage tolerance is built into the design compared to the original design usage requirements presents the opportunity to manage systems based on risk. The study presents the sensitivity of these factors and recommends avenues for further research.

  20. Multiple growth-correlated life history traits estimated simultaneously in indivuals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mollet, F.M.; Ernande, B.; Brunel, T.P.A.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new methodology to estimate rates of energy acquisition, maintenance, reproductive investment and the onset of maturation (four-trait estimation) by fitting an energy allocation model to individual growth trajectories. The accuracy and precision of the method is evaluated on simulated

  1. [Discussion on Quality Evaluation Method of Medical Device During Life-Cycle in Operation Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Caixian; Zheng, Kun; Shen, Yunming; Wu, Yunyun

    2016-01-01

    The content related to the quality during life-cycle in operation of medical device includes daily use, repair volume, preventive maintenance, quality control and adverse event monitoring. In view of this, the article aims at discussion on the quality evaluation method of medical devices during their life cycle in operation based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The presented method is proved to be effective by evaluating patient monitors as example. The method presented in can promote and guide the device quality control work, and it can provide valuable inputs to decisions about purchase of new device.

  2. Fatigue life estimation of a 1D aluminum beam under mode-I loading using the electromechanical impedance technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Yee Yan; Soh, Chee Kiong

    2011-01-01

    Structures in service are often subjected to fatigue loads. Cracks would develop and lead to failure if left unnoticed after a large number of cyclic loadings. Monitoring the process of fatigue crack propagation as well as estimating the remaining useful life of a structure is thus essential to prevent catastrophe while minimizing earlier-than-required replacement. The advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducers (lead zirconate titanate, PZT) has ushered in a new era of structural health monitoring (SHM) based on non-destructive evaluation (NDE). This paper presents a series of investigative studies to evaluate the feasibility of fatigue crack monitoring and estimation of remaining useful life using the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique employing a PZT transducer. Experimental tests were conducted to study the ability of the EMI technique in monitoring fatigue crack in 1D lab-sized aluminum beams. The experimental results prove that the EMI technique is very sensitive to fatigue crack propagation. A proof-of-concept semi-analytical damage model for fatigue life estimation has been developed by incorporating the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory into the finite element (FE) model. The prediction of the model matches closely with the experiment, suggesting the possibility of replacing costly experiments in future

  3. Fatigue life estimation of a 1D aluminum beam under mode-I loading using the electromechanical impedance technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Yee Yan; Kiong Soh, Chee

    2011-12-01

    Structures in service are often subjected to fatigue loads. Cracks would develop and lead to failure if left unnoticed after a large number of cyclic loadings. Monitoring the process of fatigue crack propagation as well as estimating the remaining useful life of a structure is thus essential to prevent catastrophe while minimizing earlier-than-required replacement. The advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducers (lead zirconate titanate, PZT) has ushered in a new era of structural health monitoring (SHM) based on non-destructive evaluation (NDE). This paper presents a series of investigative studies to evaluate the feasibility of fatigue crack monitoring and estimation of remaining useful life using the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique employing a PZT transducer. Experimental tests were conducted to study the ability of the EMI technique in monitoring fatigue crack in 1D lab-sized aluminum beams. The experimental results prove that the EMI technique is very sensitive to fatigue crack propagation. A proof-of-concept semi-analytical damage model for fatigue life estimation has been developed by incorporating the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory into the finite element (FE) model. The prediction of the model matches closely with the experiment, suggesting the possibility of replacing costly experiments in future.

  4. An online Vce measurement and temperature estimation method for high power IGBT module in normal PWM operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghimire, Pramod; de Vega, Angel Ruiz; Beczkowski, Szymon

    2014-01-01

    An on-state collector-emitter voltage (Vce) measurement and thereby an estimation of average temperature in space for high power IGBT module is presented while power converter is in operation. The proposed measurement circuit is able to measure both high and low side IGBT and anti parallel diode...

  5. THE ESTIMATION OF HUMAN-OPERATOR CYBERNETIC ABILITIES DURING THE IMPACT OF DESTABILIZING FACTORS OF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergii T. Polishchuk

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available  The method of estimation of human-operator cybernetics abilities during of the impacting of destabilizing factors of external environment is suggested. It was proved that up-to-date biomedical approach for periodical health examination of pilots in civil aviation isn’t guarantees theirs cybernetics abilities in cases of influence of destabilizing factors.

  6. Earth Observation-Based Operational Estimation of Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration for Agricultural Crops in Support of Sustainable Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George P. Petropoulos

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global information on the spatio-temporal variation of parameters driving the Earth’s terrestrial water and energy cycles, such as evapotranspiration (ET rates and surface soil moisture (SSM, is of key significance. The water and energy cycles underpin global food and water security and need to be fully understood as the climate changes. In the last few decades, Earth Observation (EO technology has played an increasingly important role in determining both ET and SSM. This paper reviews the state of the art in the use specifically of operational EO of both ET and SSM estimates. We discuss the key technical and operational considerations to derive accurate estimates of those parameters from space. The review suggests significant progress has been made in the recent years in retrieving ET and SSM operationally; yet, further work is required to optimize parameter accuracy and to improve the operational capability of services developed using EO data. Emerging applications on which ET/SSM operational products may be included in the context specifically in relation to agriculture are also highlighted; the operational use of those operational products in such applications remains to be seen.

  7. Multicriteria optimization approach to design and operation of district heating supply system over its life cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Piotr; Duzinkiewicz, Kazimierz; Grochowski, Michał

    2017-11-01

    District Heating (DH) systems are commonly supplied using local heat sources. Nowadays, modern insulation materials allow for effective and economically viable heat transportation over long distances (over 20 km). In the paper a method for optimized selection of design and operating parameters of long distance Heat Transportation System (HTS) is proposed. The method allows for evaluation of feasibility and effectivity of heat transportation from the considered heat sources. The optimized selection is formulated as multicriteria decision-making problem. The constraints for this problem include a static HTS model, allowing considerations of system life cycle, time variability and spatial topology. Thereby, variation of heat demand and ground temperature within the DH area, insulation and pipe aging and/or terrain elevation profile are taken into account in the decision-making process. The HTS construction costs, pumping power, and heat losses are considered as objective functions. Inner pipe diameter, insulation thickness, temperatures and pumping stations locations are optimized during the decision-making process. Moreover, the variants of pipe-laying e.g. one pipeline with the larger diameter or two with the smaller might be considered during the optimization. The analyzed optimization problem is multicriteria, hybrid and nonlinear. Because of such problem properties, the genetic solver was applied.

  8. An assessment of quality of life of operated cases of esophageal atresia in the community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harshjeet Singh Bal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To evaluate the outcome of the operated children of esophageal atresia (EA focusing on their early and late morbidity and mortality and quality of life (QoL of survivors. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional follow-up with retrospective analysis of available medical and surgical records of children who underwent repair for EA. Materials and Methods: The medical records of the children who underwent repair for EA during the period from 2000 to 2011 at the Christian Medical College Hospital, Vellore, were collected retrospectively. Patients with parents were invited to visit the hospital for follow-up and nutritional status, digestive and respiratory symptoms, status of associated anomalies and QoL assessment of children done. QoL assessment was done using the PedsQL™ 4.0 generic core scales questionnaire comprising 4 scale scores: physical, emotional, social functioning, and school functioning. Mean scores are calculated based on a 5-point response scale for each item and transformed to a 0-100 scale with a higher score representing better QoL. Statistical Analysis Used: Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 16 using Chi-square or Fisher′s exact test. Results: Of 79 patients operated during the said period, there were 10 deaths and a total of 69 (87% children survived. Of the 66 patients available for follow-up, we interviewed 30 parents and children while for the remaining 36 children, out-patients charts were reviewed retrospectively. Mean follow-up duration was 3.56 years. The height and weight for age measurement showed 47% and 56% of children respectively as below the 5 th percentile. Main problems faced by operated EA children were of the respiratory (26% and gastroesophageal (36% tracts. In spite of the mentioned problems faced, the overall QoL of this group appeared good. In 23 of 30 patients, who answered PedsQL™ , more than 70% had scores >85 out of 100 in QoL scoring. Conclusions: While survivals of the

  9. Population-Based Estimates of Decreases in Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Associated with Unhealthy Body Mass Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Haomiao; Zack, Matthew M; Thompson, William W

    2016-01-01

    Being classified as outside the normal range for body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased risk for chronic health conditions, poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL), and premature death. To assess the impact of BMI on HRQOL and mortality, we compared quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by BMI levels. We obtained HRQOL data from the 1993-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and life table estimates from the National Center for Health Statistics national mortality files to estimate QALE among U.S. adults by BMI categories: underweight (BMI overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)), obese (BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m(2)), and severely obese (BMI ≥35.0 kg/m(2)). In 2010 in the United States, the highest estimated QALE for adults at 18 years of age was 54.1 years for individuals classified as normal weight. The two lowest QALE estimates were for those classified as either underweight (48.9 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). For individuals who were overweight or obese, the QALE estimates fell between those classified as either normal weight (54.1 years) or severely obese (48.2 years). The difference in QALE between adults classified as normal weight and those classified as either overweight or obese was significantly higher among women than among men, irrespective of race/ethnicity. Using population-based data, we found significant differences in QALE loss by BMI category. These findings are valuable for setting national and state targets to reduce health risks associated with severe obesity, and could be used for cost-effectiveness evaluations of weight-reduction interventions.

  10. Estimating end of life liabilities for plant licensing and financial planning for similarly configured stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffiths, G. [TLG Services, Inc. an Entergy Nuclear Co. (United States); Kennard, J. [Ontario Power Generation Inc. (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is required to update estimated waste management and decommissioning costs on a 5-year cycle within the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC) regulatory framework and provide a decommissioning cost update and provisions funds status to the Province of Ontario on a similar five-year cycle under the terms of the Ontario Nuclear Funds Agreement (ONFA). The following is an overview of the important steps used to develop OPG's nuclear power station decommissioning cost estimates, including a discussion of the responsibilities of both the owner (OPG) and estimating services vendor (TLG Services). This presentation is related to decommissioning estimating for multi-unit stations; therefore the discussion will be focused on identifying those activities that may be particularly impacted by multi-unit configuration or multiple stations. It should be noted that simultaneously developing decommissioning estimates for multiple multi-unit stations creates the opportunity to achieve economies of scale to more efficiently produce the estimates, and enables the owner and vendor to compare results between stations to identify inconsistencies. However, without careful attention to detail at the planning and execution stage, it also creates the potential liability of backtracking and developing the estimate multiple times, should significant assumptions be revised in mid-project. (authors)

  11. Estimating end of life liabilities for plant licensing and financial planning for similarly configured stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, G.; Kennard, J.

    2008-01-01

    Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is required to update estimated waste management and decommissioning costs on a 5-year cycle within the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC) regulatory framework and provide a decommissioning cost update and provisions funds status to the Province of Ontario on a similar five-year cycle under the terms of the Ontario Nuclear Funds Agreement (ONFA). The following is an overview of the important steps used to develop OPG's nuclear power station decommissioning cost estimates, including a discussion of the responsibilities of both the owner (OPG) and estimating services vendor (TLG Services). This presentation is related to decommissioning estimating for multi-unit stations; therefore the discussion will be focused on identifying those activities that may be particularly impacted by multi-unit configuration or multiple stations. It should be noted that simultaneously developing decommissioning estimates for multiple multi-unit stations creates the opportunity to achieve economies of scale to more efficiently produce the estimates, and enables the owner and vendor to compare results between stations to identify inconsistencies. However, without careful attention to detail at the planning and execution stage, it also creates the potential liability of backtracking and developing the estimate multiple times, should significant assumptions be revised in mid-project. (authors)

  12. Preventive maintenance and life time assessment with respect to cyclic operation; Foerebyggande underhaall och livslaengdsbedoemning med avseende paa cyklisk drift

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storesund, Jan

    2011-03-15

    Procedures that may be used for the life time assessments and growth laws for failure mechanisms with respect to cyclic operation has been compiled. Experience and analyzes of the effects of cyclical operation of steam drums, steam boxes, steam accumulators and valves has been compiled. For the strain-induced corrosion cracking in steam drums a correlation between the voltage level and the crack growth rate has been developed.

  13. Life Modeling for Nickel-Hydrogen Batteries in Geosynchronous Satellite Operation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zimmerman, A. H; Ang, V. J

    2005-01-01

    .... The model has been used to predict how properly designed and operated nickel-hydrogen battery lifetimes should depend on the operating environments and charge control methods typically used in GEO operation...

  14. Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar (Inventor); Goebel, Kai F. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

  15. Fatigue life estimation of welded components considering welding residual stress relaxation and its mean stress effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Seung Ho; Han, Jeong Woo; Shin, Byung Chun; Kim, Jae Hoon

    2003-01-01

    The fatigue life of welded joints is sensitive to welding residual stress and complexity of their geometric shapes. To predict the fatigue life more reasonably, the effects of welding residual stress and its relaxation on their fatigue strengths should be considered quantitatively, which are often regarded to be equivalent to the effects of mean stresses by external loads. The hot-spot stress concept should be also adopted which can reduce the dependence of fatigue strengths for various welding details. Considering the factors mentioned above, a fatigue life prediction model using the modified Goodman's diagram was proposed. In this model, an equivalent stress was introduced which is composed of the mean stress based on the hot-spot stress concept and the relaxed welding residual stress. From the verification of the proposed model to real welding details, it is proved that this model can be applied to predict reasonably their fatigue lives

  16. Fatigue life estimation considering welding residual stress and hot-spot stress of welded components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S. H.; Lee, T. K.; Shin, B. C.

    2002-01-01

    The fatigue life of welded joints is sensitive to welding residual stress and complexity of their geometric shapes. To predict the fatigue life more reasonably, the effects of welding residual stress and its relaxation have to be considered quantitatively which are equivalent to mean stress by external loads. The hot-spot stress concept should be also adopted which can be reduce the dependence of fatigue strengths for various welding details. Considering the factors mentioned above, a fatigue life prediction model using the modified Goodman's diagram was proposed. In this model, an equivalent stress was introduced which are composed of the mean stress based on the hot-spot stress concept and the relaxed welding residual stress. From the verification of the proposed model to real welding details, it is confirmed that this model can be applied to predict reasonably their fatigue lives

  17. An On-Board Remaining Useful Life Estimation Algorithm for Lithium-Ion Batteries of Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Battery remaining useful life (RUL estimation is critical to battery management and performance optimization of electric vehicles (EVs. In this paper, we present an effective way to estimate RUL online by using the support vector machine (SVM algorithm. By studying the characteristics of the battery degradation process, the rising of the terminal voltage and changing characteristics of the voltage derivative (DV during the charging process are introduced as the training variables of the SVM algorithm to determine the battery RUL. The SVM is then applied to build the battery degradation model and predict the battery real cycle numbers. Experimental results prove that the built battery degradation model shows higher accuracy and less computation time compared with those of the neural network (NN method, thereby making it a potential candidate for realizing online RUL estimation in a battery management system (BMS.

  18. Satellite lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation with an iterative updated RVM fused with the KF algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuchen SONG; Datong LIU; Yandong HOU; Jinxiang YU; Yu PENG

    2018-01-01

    Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery's RUL due to its sparse fea-ture and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery's RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better per-formance for RUL estimation.

  19. Satellite lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation with an iterative updated RVM fused with the KF algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuchen SONG

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life (RUL estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine (RVM is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery’s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery’s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.

  20. Residual Stress Estimation and Fatigue Life Prediction of an Autofrettaged Pressure Vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Kyung Jin; Kim, Eun Kyum; Koh, Seung Kee [Kunsan Nat’l Univ., Kunsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-09-15

    Fatigue failure of an autofrettaged pressure vessel with a groove at the outside surface occurs owing to the fatigue crack initiation and propagation at the groove root. In order to predict the fatigue life of the autofrettaged pressure vessel, residual stresses in the autofrettaged pressure vessel were evaluated using the finite element method, and the fatigue properties of the pressure vessel steel were obtained from the fatigue tests. Fatigue life of a pressure vessel obtained through summation of the crack initiation and propagation lives was calculated to be 2,598 cycles for an 80% autofrettaged pressure vessel subjected to a pulsating internal pressure of 424 MPa.

  1. Estimation of Life-Year Loss and Lifetime Costs for Different Stages of Colon Adenocarcinoma in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Chuan; Lee, Jenq-Chang; Wang, Jung-Der

    2015-01-01

    Life-expectancy of colon cancer patients cannot be accurately answered due to the lack of both large datasets and long-term follow-ups, which impedes accurate estimation of lifetime cost to treat colon cancer patients. In this study, we applied a method to estimate life-expectancy of colon cancer patients in Taiwan and calculate the lifetime costs by different stages and age groups. A total of 17,526 cases with pathologically verified colon adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2009 were extracted from Taiwan Cancer Registry database for analysis. All patients were followed-up until the end of 2011. Life-expectancy, expected-years-of-life-lost and lifetime costs were estimated, using a semi-parametric survival extrapolation method and borrowing information from life tables of vital statistics. Patients with more advanced stages of colon cancer were generally younger and less co-morbid with major chronic diseases than those with stages I and II. The LE of stage I was not significantly different from that of the age- and sex-matched general population, whereas those of stages II, III, and IV colon cancer patients after diagnosis were 16.57 ± 0.07, 13.35 ± 0.07, and 4.05 ± 0.05 years, respectively; the corresponding expected-years-of-life-lost were 1.28 ± 0.07, 5.93 ± 0.07 and 16.42 ± 0.06 years, significantly shorter than the general population after accounting for lead time bias. Besides, the lifetime cost of managing stage II colon cancer patients would be US $8,416 ± 1939, 14,334 ± 1,755, and 21,837 ± 1,698, respectively, indicating a big saving for early diagnosis and treatment after stratification for age and sex. Treating colon cancer at younger age and earlier stage saves more life-years and healthcare costs. Future studies are indicated to apply these quantitative results into the cost-effectiveness evaluation of screening program for colon cancers.

  2. The need for operating guidelines and a decision making framework applicable to the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Race, Margaret S.; Randolph, Richard O.

    While formal principles have been adopted for the eventuality of detecting intelligent life in our galaxy (SETI Principles), no such guidelines exist for the discovery of non-intelligent extraterrestrial life within the solar system. Current scientifically based planetary protection policies for solar system exploration address how to undertake exploration, but do not provide clear guidance on what to do if and when life is detected. Considering that martian life could be detected under several different robotic and human exploration scenarios in the coming decades, it is appropriate to anticipate how detection of non-intelligent, microbial life could impact future exploration missions and activities, especially on Mars. This paper discusses a proposed set of interim guidelines based loosely on the SETI Principles and addresses issues extending from the time of discovery through future handling and treatment of extraterrestrial life on Mars or elsewhere. Based on an analysis of both scientific and ethical considerations, there is a clear need for developing operating protocols applicable at the time of discovery and a decision making framework that anticipates future missions and activities, both robotic and human. There is growing scientific confidence that the discovery of extraterrestrial life in some form is nearly inevitable. If and when life is discovered beyond Earth, non-scientific dimensions may strongly influence decisions about the nature and scope of future missions and activities. It is appropriate to encourage international discussion and consideration of the issues prior to an event of such historical significance.

  3. Use of Neuber's rule to estimate the fatigue life of notched specimens of ASME SA 106-B steel piping in 2880C air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrell, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    Fatigue strain-life tests were conducted on notched specimens of ADMESA 106-B piping steel at PWR operating temperatures (288 0 C (550 0 F)), under completely reversed loading. Fatigue limits at 10 7 cycles were estimated for smooth specimens to be 185 M Pa (26.8 ksi) at 24 0 C and 232 MPa (33.7 ksi) at 288 0 C. The higher fatigue strength observed at the PWR temperature is postulated to be caused by dynamic strain aging processes. However, a reduction in fatigue strength in the low cycle fatigue regime was observed in 288 0 C air environment tests, which may indicate that the current ASME Section III design curve for carbon steels is nonconservative in its positioning. Notch strain histories were estimated for the notched specimen tests using various interpretations of Neuber's rule. It was concluded that the use of the fatigue notch concentration factor (K f ) in the Neuber relation in conjunction with the uniaxial cyclic stress-strain curve provided the best correlation of notched specimen fatigue data with results obtained from smooth specimen tests. The notched specimen strain-life results derived from the application of Neuber's rule alone proved to be conservative when compared with smooth specimen test results to such an extent that Neuber-generated notch stresses and strain amplitudes cannot accurately be compared with the mean data curves derived from the ASME Section III fatigue curves for carbon steels which are based on net section stress measurements. (author)

  4. Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

    1982-05-01

    This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

  5. Metal removal efficiency, operational life and secondary environmental impacts of a stormwater filter developed from iron-oxide-amended bottom ash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyas, Aamir; Muthanna, Tone M

    2017-12-06

    The aim of this paper was to conduct pilot-scale column tests on an alternative treatment filter designed for the treatment of highway stormwater in cold climates. The study evaluated adsorption performance of the filter with regard to the four most commonly found metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in highway stormwater. An alternative method was used to estimate the operational life of the filter from the adsorption test data without a breakthrough under high hydraulic loads. The potential environmental impact of the filter was assessed by comparing desorption test data with four different environmental quality standards. The proposed filter achieved high adsorption (over 90%) of the target metals. The comparisons of desorption and leaching data with the environmental standards indicated that iron-oxide/bottom ash was non-hazardous, reusable and without serious environmental risks. The operational life and filter dimensions were highly dependent on rainfall depth, which indicated that the filter design would have to be adapted to suit the climate. To fully appreciate the performance and environmental aspects, the filter unit should be tested in the field and the testing should explicitly include ecotoxicological and life cycle impacts.

  6. The Impact Of The MCU Life Extension Solvent On Sludge Batch 8 Projected Operating Windows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peeler, D. K.; Edwards, T. B.; Stone, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    As a part of the Actinide Removal Process (ARP)/Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) Life Extension Project, a next generation solvent (NGS) and a new strip acid will be deployed. The strip acid will be changed from dilute nitric acid to dilute boric acid (0.01 M). Because of these changes, experimental testing or evaluations with the next generation solvent are required to determine the impact of these changes (if any) to Chemical Process Cell (CPC) activities, glass formulation strategies, and melter operations at the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). The introduction of the dilute (0.01M) boric acid stream into the DWPF flowsheet has a potential impact on glass formulation and frit development efforts since B2O3 is a major oxide in frits developed for DWPF. Prior knowledge of this stream can be accounted for during frit development efforts but that was not the case for Sludge Batch 8 (SB8). Frit 803 has already been recommended and procured for SB8 processing; altering the frit to account for the incoming boron from the strip effluent (SE) is not an option for SB8. Therefore, the operational robustness of Frit 803 to the introduction of SE including its compositional tolerances (i.e., up to 0.0125M boric acid) is of interest and was the focus of this study. The primary question to be addressed in the current study was: What is the impact (if any) on the projected operating windows for the Frit 803 - SB8 flowsheet to additions of B2O3 from the SE in the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT)? More specifically, will Frit 803 be robust to the potential compositional changes occurring in the SRAT due to sludge variation, varying additions of ARP and/or the introduction of SE by providing access to waste loadings (WLs) of interest to DWPF? The Measurement Acceptability Region (MAR) results indicate there is very little, if any, impact on the projected operating windows for the Frit 803 - SB8 system regardless of the presence or absence of

  7. Matrix elements of four-quark operators relevant to life time difference ΔΓBs from QCD sum rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, C.S.; Zhang Ailin; Zhu, S.L.

    2001-01-01

    We extract the matrix elements of four-quark operators O L,S relevant to the B s and anti B s life time difference from QCD sum rules. We find that the vacuum saturation approximation works reasonably well, i.e., within 10%. We discuss the implications of our results and compare them with a recent lattice QCD determination. (orig.)

  8. Influence of accompanying immunocorrecting therapy on the quality of life of breast cancer patients at post-operative radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prokhach, N.E.

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the influence of accompanying immunotherapy on the parameters of the quality of life of the patients with breast cancer with various profiles of cytokines at post-operative radiation therapy. The study was performed on 30 breast cancer patients at stages of combination therapy

  9. Plant life extensions for German nuclear power plants? Controversial discussion profit taking of nuclear power plant operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2009-10-01

    The discussion on the plant life extensions for German nuclear power plants beyond the residual quantity of electricity particularly focus on three aspects: Effects for the emission of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas; Development of the electricity price for which a reduction or attenuation is postulated due to a plant life extension; Skimming of additional profits at operating companies and their use in the safeguarding of the future (development of renewable energies, support of energy efficiency, promotion of the research, consolidation of the public budget, and so on). Under this aspect, the author of the contribution under consideration reports on the profit taking of nuclear power plant operators. The presented analysis considers three aspects: (a) Specification of the quantity structures for the investigated model of plant life extension; (b) The decisive parameter is the revenue situation and thus the price development for electricity at wholesale markets; (c) Determination and evaluation of the course in time of the profit taking.

  10. Outer measures and weak type estimates of Hardy-Littlewood maximal operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terasawa Yutaka

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We will introduce the times modified centered and uncentered Hardy-Littlewood maximal operators on nonhomogeneous spaces for . We will prove that the times modified centered Hardy-Littlewood maximal operator is weak type bounded with constant when if the Radon measure of the space has "continuity" in some sense. In the proof, we will use the outer measure associated with the Radon measure. We will also prove other results of Hardy-Littlewood maximal operators on homogeneous spaces and on the real line by using outer measures.

  11. What are the elements required to improve exposure estimates in life cycle assessments?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernstoff, Alexi; Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Margni, Manuele

    2016-01-01

    human toxicity and ecosystem toxicity of chemicals posed by different product life cycle stages are characterized in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase. Exposure and effect quantification as part of LCIA toxicity characterization faces numerous challenges related to inventory analysis (e.......g. number and quantity of chemicals emitted), substance-specific modelling (e.g. organics, inorganics, nano-materials) in various environments and time horizons, human and ecosystem exposure quantification (e.g. exposed organisms and exposure pathways), and toxicity end-points (e.g. carcinogenicity...... chemical exposure and harmful effects. Thereby, we structure this study of key elements identified as areas of elevated public, industrial, regulatory, and scientific concerns. We found the majority of missing elements are directly related to the definition of exposed populations (both ecosystems...

  12. ESTIMATING INJURIOUS IMPACT IN CONSTRUCTION LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENTS: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McDevitt, James E.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the result of a desire to include social factors alongside environmental and economic considerations in Life Cycle Assessment studies for the construction sector. We describe a specific search for a method to include injurious impact for construction Life Cycle Assessment studies, by evaluating a range of methods and data sources. A simple case study using selected Accident Compensation Corporation information illustrates that data relating to injury could provide a compelling evidence to cause changes in construction supply chains, and could provide an economic motive to pursue further research in this area. The paper concludes that limitations notwithstanding, the suggested approach could be useful as a fast and cheap high level tool that can accelerate the discussions and research agenda that will bring about the inclusion of social metrics in construction sector supply chain management and declarations.

  13. The QOL-DASS Model to Estimate Overall Quality of Life and General Subjective Health

    OpenAIRE

    Mazaheri, Mehrdad

    2011-01-01

    Objective In Order to find how rating the WHOQOL-BREF and DASS scales are combined to produce an overall measure of quality of life and satisfaction with health rating, a QOL-DASS model was designed; and the strength of this hypothesized model was examined using the structural equation modeling. Method Participants included a sample of 103 voluntary males who were divided into two groups of unhealthy (N=55) and healthy (N=48). To assess satisfaction and negative emotions of depression, anxiet...

  14. Influence of shrinkage porosity on fatigue performance of iron castings and life estimation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Shrinkage porosity exists more or less in heavy castings, and it plays an important role in the fatigue behavior of cast materials. In this study, fatigue tests were carried out on the QT400-18 cast iron specimens containing random degrees of shrinkage porosity defect. Experimental results showed that the order of magnitude of life scattered from 103 to 106 cycles when the shrinkage percentage ranged from 0.67% to 5.91%. SEM analyses were carried out on the shrinkage porosity region. The inter-granular discontinuous, micro cracks and inclusions interfered with the fatigue sliding or hindering process. The slip in shrinkage porosity region was not as orderly as the ordinary continuous medium. The shrinkage porosity area on fracture surface (SPAFS and alternating stress intensity factor (ASIF were applied to evaluate the tendency of residual life distribution; their relationship was fitted by negative exponent functions. Based on the intermediate variable of ASIF, a fatigue life prediction model of nodular cast iron containing shrinkage porosity defects was established. The modeling prediction was in agreement with the experimental results.

  15. Sensory shelf life estimation of minimally processed lettuce considering two stages of consumers' decision-making process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Gastón; Giménez, Ana; Gámbaro, Adriana

    2008-01-01

    The aim of the present work was to study the influence of context, particularly the stage of the decision-making process (purchase vs consumption stage), on sensory shelf life of minimally processed lettuce. Leaves of butterhead lettuce were placed in common polypropylene bags and stored at 5, 10 and 15 degrees C. Periodically, a panel of six assessors evaluated the appearance of the samples, and a panel of 40 consumers evaluated their appearance and answered "yes" or "no" to the questions: "Imagine you are in a supermarket, you want to buy a minimally processed lettuce, and you find a package of lettuce with leaves like this, would you normally buy it?" and "Imagine you have this leaf of lettuce stored in your refrigerator, would you normally consume it?". Survival analysis was used to calculate the shelf lives of minimally processed lettuce, considering both decision-making stages. Shelf lives estimated considering rejection to purchase were significantly lower than those estimated considering rejection to consume. Therefore, in order to be conservative and assure the products' quality, shelf life should be estimated considering consumers' rejection to purchase instead of rejection to consume, as traditionally has been done. On the other hand, results from logistic regressions of consumers' rejection percentage as a function of the evaluated appearance attributes suggested that consumers considered them differently while deciding whether to purchase or to consume minimally processed lettuce.

  16. Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates. American Community Survey Reports. ACS-14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julian, Tiffany; Kominski, Robert

    2011-01-01

    The relationship between education and earnings is a long-analyzed topic of study. Generally, there is a strong belief that achievement of higher levels of education is a well established path to better jobs and better earnings. This report provides one view of the economic value of educational attainment by producing an estimate of the amount of…

  17. Gender and ethnic health disparities among the elderly in rural Guangxi, China: estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai Zhang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ethnic health inequalities for males and females among the elderly have not yet been verified in multicultural societies in developing countries. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of disparities in health expectancy among the elderly from different ethnic groups using quality-adjusted life expectancy. Design: A cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted. A total of 6,511 rural elderly individuals aged ≥60 years were selected from eight different ethnic groups in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China and assessed for health-related quality of life (HRQoL. The HRQoL utility value was combined with life expectancy at age 60 years (LE60 data by using Sullivan's method to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy at age 60 years (QALE60 and loss in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs for each group. Results: Overall, LE60 and QALE60 for all ethnic groups were 20.9 and 18.0 years in men, respectively, and 24.2 and 20.3 years in women. The maximum gap in QALE60 between ethnic groups was 3.3 years in males and 4.6 years in females. The average loss in QALY was 2.9 years for men and 3.8 years for women. The correlation coefficient between LE60 and QALY lost was −0.53 in males and 0.12 in females. Conclusion: Women live longer than men, but they suffer more; men have a shorter life expectancy, but those who live longer are healthier. Attempts should be made to reduce suffering in the female elderly and improve longevity for men. Certain ethnic groups had low levels of QALE, needing special attention to improve their lifestyle and access to health care.

  18. The TileCal Online Energy Estimation for the Next LHC Operation Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotto-Maior Peralva, B.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2015-05-01

    The ATLAS Tile Calorimeter (TileCal) is the detector used in the reconstruction of hadrons, jets and missing transverse energy from the proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It covers the central part of the ATLAS detector (|η| occupancy, the pile-up, which is often modeled by a non-Gaussian distribution, can be seen as outlier events. Consequently, the classical covariance matrix estimation does not describe correctly the second order statistics of the background for the majority of the events, as this approach is very sensitive to outliers. As a result, the OF (or MF) coefficients are miscalculated leading to a larger variance and biased energy estimator. This work evaluates the usage of a robust covariance estimator, namely the Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) algorithm, to be applied in the OF design. The goal of the MCD estimator is to find a number of observations whose classical covariance matrix has the lowest determinant. Hence, this procedure avoids taking into account low likelihood events to describe the background. It is worth mentioning that the background covariance matrix as well as the OF coefficients for each TileCal channel are computed offline and stored for both online and offline use. In order to evaluate the impact of the MCD estimator on the performance of the OF, simulated data sets were used. Different average numbers of interactions per bunch crossing and bunch spacings were tested. The results show that the estimation of the background covariance matrix through MCD improves significantly the final energy resolution with respect to the identity matrix which is currently used. Particularly, for high occupancy cells, the final energy resolution is improved by more than 20%. Moreover, the use of the classical covariance matrix degrades the energy resolution for the majority of TileCal cells.

  19. Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. Operating experience with pulsed-column holdup estimators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for estimating pulsed-column holdup are being investigated as part of the Safeguards Assessment task of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The CFRP was a major sponsor of test runs at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel plant (BNFP) in 1980 and 1981. During these tests, considerable measurement data were collected for pulsed columns in the plutonium purification portion of the plant. These data have been used to evaluate and compare three available methods of holdup estimation

  20. A two-level strategy to realize life-cycle production optimization in an operational setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    We present a two-level strategy to improve robustness against uncertainty and model errors in life-cycle flooding optimization. At the upper level, a physics-based large-scale reservoir model is used to determine optimal life-cycle injection and production profiles. At the lower level these profiles

  1. A two-level strategy to realize life-cycle production optimization in an operational setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van G.M.; Hof, Van den P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2013-01-01

    We present a two-level strategy to improve robustness against uncertainty and model errors in life-cycle flooding optimization. At the upper level, a physics-based large-scale reservoir model is used to determine optimal life-cycle injection and production profiles. At the lower level these profiles

  2. Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

    2017-10-01

    For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.

  3. Life estimation and analysis of dielectric strength, hydrocarbon backbone and oxidation of high voltage multi stressed EPDM composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khattak, Abraiz; Amin, Muhammad; Iqbal, Muhammad; Abbas, Naveed

    2018-02-01

    Micro and nanocomposites of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) are recently studied for different characteristics. Study on life estimation and effects of multiple stresses on its dielectric strength and backbone scission and oxidation is also vital for endorsement of these composites for high voltage insulation and other outdoor applications. In order to achieve these goals, unfilled EPDM and its micro and nanocomposites are prepared at 23 phr micro silica and 6 phr nanosilica loadings respectively. Prepared samples are energized at 2.5 kV AC voltage and subjected for a long time to heat, ultraviolet radiation, acid rain, humidity and salt fog in accelerated manner in laboratory. Dielectric strength, leakage current and intensity of saturated backbone and carbonyl group are periodically measured. Loss in dielectric strength, increase in leakage current and backbone degradation and oxidation were observed in all samples. These effects were least in the case of EPDM nanocomposite. The nanocomposite sample also demonstrated longest shelf life.

  4. A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

    OpenAIRE

    Brandt, James M.

    1999-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

  5. Estimation of Lifetime Duration for a Lever Pin of Runner Blade Operating Mechanism using a Graphic – analytic Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria Budai

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper are presented a graphic - analytic method that can be used to estimate the fatigue lifetime duration for an operating mechanism lever pin to a Kaplan turbine. The presented calculus algorithm is adapted from the one used by Fuji Electric to made strength calculus in order to refurbish a Romanian hydropower plant, equipped with a Kaplan turbine. The graphic part includes a 3D fatigue diagram for rotating bending stress designed by Fuji Electric specialists.

  6. Machine and component residual life estimation through the application of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herzog, M.A.; Marwala, T.; Heyns, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper concerns the use of neural networks for predicting the residual life of machines and components. In addition, the advantage of using condition-monitoring data to enhance the predictive capability of these neural networks was also investigated. A number of neural network variations were trained and tested with the data of two different reliability-related datasets. The first dataset represents the renewal case where the failed unit is repaired and restored to a good-as-new condition. Data were collected in the laboratory by subjecting a series of similar test pieces to fatigue loading with a hydraulic actuator. The average prediction error of the various neural networks being compared varied from 431 to 841 s on this dataset, where test pieces had a characteristic life of 8971 s. The second dataset were collected from a group of pumps used to circulate a water and magnetite solution within a plant. The data therefore originated from a repaired system affected by reliability degradation. When optimized, the multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the general regression neural network produced a sum-of-squares error within 11.1% of each other for the renewal dataset. The small number of inputs and poorly mapped input space on the second dataset meant that much larger errors were recorded on some of the test data. The potential for using neural networks for residual life prediction and the advantage of incorporating condition-based data into the model was nevertheless proven for both examples

  7. Reliability-based fatigue life estimation of shear riveted connections considering dependency of rivet hole failures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonetti* Davide

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Standards and guidelines for the fatigue design of riveted connections make use of a stress range-endurance (S-N curve based on the net section stress range regardless of the number and the position of the rivets. Almost all tests on which S-N curves are based, are performed with a minimum number of rivets. However, the number of rivets in a row is expected to increase the fail-safe behaviour of the connection, whereas the number of rows is supposed to decrease the theoretical stress concentration at the critical locations, and hence these aspects are not considered in the S-N curves. This paper presents a numerical model predicting the fatigue life of riveted connections by performing a system reliability analysis on a double cover plated riveted butt joint. The connection is considered in three geometries, with different number of rivets in a row and different number of rows. The stress state in the connection is evaluated using a finite element model in which the friction coefficient and the clamping force in the rivets are considered in a deterministic manner. The probability of failure is evaluated for the main plate, and fatigue failure is assumed to be originating at the sides of the rivet holes, the critical locations, or hot-spots. The notch stress approach is applied to assess the fatigue life, considered to be a stochastic quantity. Unlike other system reliability models available in the literature, the evaluation of the probability of failure takes into account the stochastic dependence between the failures at each critical location modelled as a parallel system, which means considering the change of the state of stress in the connection when a ligament between two rivets fails. A sensitivity study is performed to evaluate the effect of the pretension in the rivet and the friction coefficient on the fatigue life.

  8. Comparison of environmental radiation doses estimated for Hanford Operations, 1977 through 1982

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCormack, W.D.; Carlile, J.M.V.; Peloquin, R.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1983-12-01

    Offsite environmental radiation dose equivalents based on Hanford operations are compared for the years 1977 through 1981 to those calculated for 1982. The comparison revealed a downward trend in calculated offsite doses over the period 1977 through 1982, due primarily to reported reduced effluent releases, changes in effluent reporting methods, and increased Columbia River flow over this period. The calculated doses verify the surveillance program findings that potential offsite radiation doses due to Hanford Operations are small and well below our ability to detect in the environment. 11 references, 23 tables

  9. The QOL-DASS Model to Estimate Overall Quality of Life and General Health

    OpenAIRE

    Mehrdad Mazaheri

    2011-01-01

    "n Objective: In order to find how rating the WHOQOL-BREF and DASS scales are combined to produce an overall measure of quality of life and satisfaction with health rating, a QOL-DASS model was designed ; and the strength of this hypothesized model was examined using the structural equation modeling "n "nMethod: Participants included a sample of 103 voluntary males who were divided into two groups of unhealthy (N=55) and healthy (N=48). To assess satisfaction and negative  emotions of depress...

  10. Effect of the Length of Traffic Flow Records on the Estimate of a Bridge Service Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krejsa Jan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The service life of bridges is significantly affected by fatigue of used material induced by heavy vehicles. Therefore, precise determination of the vehicle weight is of crucial importance for the calculation of fatigue damage and the prediction of the bridge serviceability. This paper investigates accuracy of the determination of fatigue depending on the length of traffic flow recording. The presented data were obtained from the measurements carried out on a bridge of the Prague Highway Ring. The analysis reveals that the optimal length of traffic recording is about 30 days.

  11. A Numerical Model for Estimation of Service Life of Tribological Systems of the Piston Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Gavrilov

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article describes, develops and applies approach of the interaction of rough surfaces for one of the tasks of simulation of tribological systems of the piston engine. In this paper we described the general approach to building a model of interaction between rough surfaces, leading to the analysis of the Markov process. Given the initial data and the method of calculating the trajectory of movable elements on the lubricating layer, we determined the tribological parameters defining the service life of tribological systems of the piston engine on the example of crankshaft bearings.

  12. USING STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING STUDENTS’ OPINION ON THE PURPOSE OF HUMAN LIFE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aivaz M. KAMER AINUR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, two anthropological models are dominant in Romania. The first is the atheistic-evolutionary model and the second is the Christian model. The purpose of this article is to assess the students’ opinion on the two anthropological models and, in particular, on the purpose of human life. To that effect, there have been used the coefficients of association between the main aspects of the two models. Starting from the two outlined approaches, this paper aims to investigate the opinions of the students from two different specializations within Ovidius University of Constanta – the Faculty of Economics and the Faculty of Theology – on the issues mentioned above

  13. Maximum likelihood estimation of dose-response parameters for therapeutic operating characteristic (TOC) analysis of carcinoma of the nasopharynx

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metz, C.E.; Tokars, R.P.; Kronman, H.B.; Griem, M.L.

    1982-01-01

    A Therapeutic Operating Characteristic (TOC) curve for radiation therapy plots, for all possible treatment doses, the probability of tumor ablation as a function of the probability of radiation-induced complication. Application of this analysis to actual therapeutic situation requires that dose-response curves for ablation and for complication be estimated from clinical data. We describe an approach in which ''maximum likelihood estimates'' of these dose-response curves are made, and we apply this approach to data collected on responses to radiotherapy for carcinoma of the nasopharynx. TOC curves constructed from the estimated dose-response curves are subject to moderately large uncertainties because of the limitations of available data.These TOC curves suggest, however, that treatment doses greater than 1800 rem may substantially increase the probability of tumor ablation with little increase in the risk of radiation-induced cervical myelopathy, especially for T1 and T2 tumors

  14. Estimation of radon concentration in various operating areas of a reprocessing facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayan, M.P.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Raman, Anand; Gopalakrishnan, R.K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports 222 Rn concentration of various operating areas of a reprocessing facility and also the U-processing area, measured using a microcontroller based Continuous Radon Monitor (CRM) built indigenously by Radiation Safety Systems Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre

  15. Ensemble Kalman Filtering with Residual Nudging: An Extension to State Estimation Problems with Nonlinear Observation Operators

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    -space-based strategy, called residual nudging, to improve the stability of the EnKF when dealing with linear observation operators. The main idea behind residual nudging is to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the distances (misfits) between the real observations

  16. Expected shortfall estimation for apparently infinite-mean models of operational risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cirillo, P.; Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    Statistical analyses on actual data depict operational risk as an extremely heavy-tailed phenomenon, able to generate losses so extreme as to suggest the use of infinite-mean models. But no loss can actually destroy more than the entire value of a bank or of a company, and this upper bound should be

  17. Stress corrosion cracking life estimation of hold-down spring screw for nuclear fuel assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, S.K.

    2005-01-01

    Hold-down spring screw fractures due to primary water stress corrosion cracking were observed in nuclear fuel assemblies. The screw fastens hold-down springs that are required to maintain the nuclear fuel assembly in contact with upper core plate and permit thermal and irradiation-induced length changes. In order to investigate the primary causes of the screw fractures, the finite element stress analysis and fracture mechanics analysis were performed on the hold-down spring assembly. The elastic-plastic finite element analysis showed that the local stresses at the critical regions of head-shank fillet and thread root significantly exceeded the yield strength of the screw material, resulting in local plastic deformation. Preloading on the screw applied for tightening had beneficial effects on the screw strength by reducing the stress level at the critical regions, compared to the screw without preload. Calculated deflections and strains at the hold-down springs using the finite element analysis were in very close agreements with the experimentally measured deflections and strains. Primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) life of the Inconel 600 screw was predicted by integrating the Scott's model and resulted in a life of 1.42 years, which was fairly close to the field experience. Cracks were expected to originate at the threaded region of the screw and propagated to the opposite side of the spring, which was confirmed by the fractographic analysis of the fractured screws. (orig.)

  18. The QOL-DASS Model to Estimate Overall Quality of Life and General Subjective Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazaheri, Mehrdad

    2011-01-01

    In Order to find how rating the WHOQOL-BREF and DASS scales are combined to produce an overall measure of quality of life and satisfaction with health rating, a QOL-DASS model was designed; and the strength of this hypothesized model was examined using the structural equation modeling. Participants included a sample of 103 voluntary males who were divided into two groups of unhealthy (N=55) and healthy (N=48). To assess satisfaction and negative emotions of depression, anxiety and stress among the participants, they were asked to fill out the WHOQOL-BREF and The Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-42). Our findings on running the hypothesized model of QOL-DASS indicated that the proposed model of QOL-DASS fitted the data well for the both healthy and unhealthy groups. Our findings with CFA to evaluate the hypothesized model of QOL-DASS indicated that the different satisfaction domain ratings and the negative emotions of depression, anxiety and stress as the observed variables can represent the underlying constructs of general health and quality of life on both healthy and unhealthy groups.

  19. The QOL-DASS Model to Estimate Overall Quality of Life and General Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Mazaheri

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available "n Objective: In order to find how rating the WHOQOL-BREF and DASS scales are combined to produce an overall measure of quality of life and satisfaction with health rating, a QOL-DASS model was designed ; and the strength of this hypothesized model was examined using the structural equation modeling "n "nMethod: Participants included a sample of 103 voluntary males who were divided into two groups of unhealthy (N=55 and healthy (N=48. To assess satisfaction and negative  emotions of depression, anxiety and stress among the participants, they were asked to fill out the WHOQOLBREF and The Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-42. "nResults: Our findings on running the hypothesized model of QOL-DASS indicated that the proposed model of QOL-DASS fitted the data well for the both healthy and unhealthy groups "nConclusion: Our findings with CFA to evaluate the hypothesized model of QOL-DASS indicated that the different satisfaction domain ratings and the negative emotions of depression, anxiety and stress as the observed variables can represent the underlying constructs of general health and quality of life on both healthy and unhealthy groups.

  20. Estimating the biological half-life for radionuclides in homoeothermic vertebrates: a simplified allometric approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beresford, N.A. [Lancaster Environment Centre, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Vives i Batlle, J. [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium)

    2013-11-15

    The application of allometric, or mass-dependent, relationships within radioecology has increased with the evolution of models to predict the exposure of organisms other than man. Allometry presents a method of addressing the lack of empirical data on radionuclide transfer and metabolism for the many radionuclide-species combinations which may need to be considered. However, sufficient data across a range of species with different masses are required to establish allometric relationships and this is not always available. Here, an alternative allometric approach to predict the biological half-life of radionuclides in homoeothermic vertebrates which does not require such data is derived. Biological half-life values are predicted for four radionuclides and compared to available data for a range of species. All predictions were within a factor of five of the observed values when the model was parameterised appropriate to the feeding strategy of each species. This is an encouraging level of agreement given that the allometric models are intended to provide broad approximations rather than exact values. However, reasons why some radionuclides deviate from what would be anticipated from Kleiber's law need to be determined to allow a more complete exploitation of the potential of allometric extrapolation within radioecological models. (orig.)

  1. A new time-series methodology for estimating relationships between elderly frailty, remaining life expectancy, and ambient air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Christian J; Lipfert, Frederick W

    2012-01-01

    Many publications estimate short-term air pollution-mortality risks, but few estimate the associated changes in life-expectancies. We present a new methodology for analyzing time series of health effects, in which prior frailty is assumed to precede short-term elderly nontraumatic mortality. The model is based on a subpopulation of frail individuals whose entries and exits (deaths) are functions of daily and lagged environmental conditions: ambient temperature/season, airborne particles, and ozone. This frail susceptible population is unknown; its fluctuations cannot be observed but are estimated using maximum-likelihood methods with the Kalman filter. We used an existing 14-y set of daily data to illustrate the model and then tested the assumption of prior frailty with a new generalized model that estimates the portion of the daily death count allocated to nonfrail individuals. In this demonstration dataset, new entries into the high-risk pool are associated with lower ambient temperatures and higher concentrations of particulate matter and ozone. Accounting for these effects on antecedent frailty reduces this at-risk population, yielding frail life expectancies of 5-7 days. Associations between environmental factors and entries to the at-risk pool are about twice as strong as for mortality. Nonfrail elderly deaths are seen to make only small contributions. This new model predicts a small short-lived frail population-at-risk that is stable over a wide range of environmental conditions. The predicted effects of pollution on new entries and deaths are robust and consistent with conventional morbidity/mortality times-series studies. We recommend model verification using other suitable datasets.

  2. ESTIMATION OF EFFICIENCY OF OPERATING SYSTEM OF TAX PLANNING IN THE COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeniy A. Samsonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Present clause is devoted to scientific judgement and estimations of efficiency of stimulating mechanisms (tools of application of system of tax planning in the commercial organizations which allow to estimate разнонаправленное influence of taxes on final financial result of the organization, and also to predict change of business activity of the organization depending on tax loading. The big attention is given to complicated questions of features of management by the taxation and the order of reflection in the tax account of the facts of the economic activities arising between the state, on the one hand, and managing subjects - the commercial organizations - with another.

  3. Economic Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with State Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Rawlings, James B.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (E-NMPC) for a complete spray drying plant with multiple stages. In the E-NMPC the initial state is estimated by an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) with noise covariances estimated by an autocovariance least...... squares method (ALS). We present a model for the spray drying plant and use this model for simulation as well as for prediction in the E-NMPC. The open-loop optimal control problem in the E-NMPC is solved using the single-shooting method combined with a quasi-Newton Sequential Quadratic programming (SQP......) algorithm and the adjoint method for computation of gradients. We evaluate the economic performance when unmeasured disturbances are present. By simulation, we demonstrate that the E-NMPC improves the profit of spray drying by 17% compared to conventional PI control....

  4. Operation Ajax: A Case Study on Analyst-Policymaker Tensions and the Challenges of Estimative Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-21

    States’ role in world affairs had expanded significantly after World War II and would require a robust intelligence architecture . Furthermore, concerns...intelligence architecture that could successfully coordinate estimates. The various intelligence organizations feared that an overly centralized CIA...and warships, as they were to do a few years later against the Egyptians at Suez, it was almost certain that the Soviet Union would have

  5. Global gradient estimates for divergence-type elliptic problems involving general nonlinear operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yumi

    2018-05-01

    We study nonlinear elliptic problems with nonstandard growth and ellipticity related to an N-function. We establish global Calderón-Zygmund estimates of the weak solutions in the framework of Orlicz spaces over bounded non-smooth domains. Moreover, we prove a global regularity result for asymptotically regular problems which are getting close to the regular problems considered, when the gradient variable goes to infinity.

  6. Empirical investigation on using wind speed volatility to estimate the operation probability and power output of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Heping; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Ten-minute wind speed and power generation data of an offshore wind turbine are used. ► An ARMA–GARCH-M model is built to simultaneously forecast wind speed mean and volatility. ► The operation probability and expected power output of the wind turbine are predicted. ► The integrated approach produces more accurate wind power forecasting than other conventional methods. - Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a quantitative methodology that performs the interval estimation of wind speed, calculates the operation probability of wind turbine, and forecasts the wind power output. The technological advantage of this methodology stems from the empowered capability of mean and volatility forecasting of wind speed. Based on the real wind speed and corresponding wind power output data from an offshore wind turbine, this methodology is applied to build an ARMA–GARCH-M model for wind speed forecasting, and then to compute the operation probability and the expected power output of the wind turbine. The results show that the developed methodology is effective, the obtained interval estimation of wind speed is reliable, and the forecasted operation probability and expected wind power output of the wind turbine are accurate

  7. Rainfall Estimation Using Specific Differential Phase for the First Operational Polarimetric Radar in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Hwan You

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To assess the performance of rainfall estimation using specific differential phase observed by Bislsan radar, the first polarimetric radar in Korea, three rainfall cases occurring in 2011 were selected, each caused by different conditions: the first is the Changma front and typhoon, the second is only the Changma front, and the third is only a typhoon. For quantitative use of specific differential phase (KDP, a data quality algorithm was developed for differential phase shift (ΦDP, composed of two steps; the first involves removal of scattered noise and the second is unfolding of ΦDP. This order of the algorithm is necessary so as not to remove unfolded areas, which are the real meteorological target. All noise was removed and the folded ΦDP were unfolded successfully for this study. RKDP relations for S-band radar were calculated for 84,754 samples of observed drop size distribution (DSD using different drop shape assumptions. The relation for the Bringi drop shape showed the best statistics: 0.28 for normalized error, and 6.7 mm for root mean square error for rainfall heavier than 10 mm h-1. Because the drop shape assumption affects the accuracy of rainfall estimation differently for different rainfall types, such characteristics should be taken into account to estimate rainfall more accurately using polarimetric variables.

  8. ESTIMATION OF MULTI-MODAL ANALGESIA ADEQUACY IN THE PERIOPERATIVE PERIOD AT LONG-TERMED TRAUMATIZING ABDOMINAL OPERATIVE INTERVENTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Kh. Sharipova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE OF THE STUDY. Improvement of perioperative multimodal analgesia at long­termed traumatizing abdominal interventions with estimation of its effectiveness.MATERIALS AND METHODS. Eighty six patients have been examined and divided into 3 groups depending on anesthesia and postoperative pain relief methods.RESULTS. The effectiveness of perioperative multi­modal analgesia using methods affecting the whole pathogenesis of pain has been revealed. Minimal stress of central and peripheral hemodynamics parameters, less evident pain syndrome in the post­operative period, economic effect shown up by the decrease of the use of narcotic analgesics both in intra­ and post­operative period have been observed.CONCLUSION. Algorithm of perioperative multi­modal analgesia at long­termed and traumatizing abdominal operative interventions has been developed. 

  9. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-12-02

    To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectancy estimation including agreement analysis of life expectancy estimates and comparison of estimate SEs. Chiang II and Silcocks methods produced almost identical life expectancy estimates across a large range of population sizes but calculation failures and excessively large SEs limited their use in small populations. A population of 25 000 or greater was required to estimate life expectancy with SE of 1 year or less using adjusted Chiang II (a composite of Chiang II and Silcocks methods). Data aggregation offered some remedy for extending the use of adjusted Chiang II in small populations but reduced estimate currency. A recently developed Bayesian random effects model utilising the correlation in mortality rates between genders, age groups and geographical areas markedly improved the precision of life expectancy estimates in small populations. We propose a hybrid approach for the calculation of life expectancy using the Bayesian random effects model in populations of 25 000 or lower permitting the precise derivation of life expectancy in small populations. In populations above 25 000, we propose the use of adjusted Chiang II to guard against violations of spatial correlation, to benefit from a widely accepted method that is simpler to communicate to local health authorities and where its slight inferior performance compared with the Bayesian approach is of minor practical significance.

  10. Point Estimation Method of Electromagnetic Flowmeters Life Based on Randomly Censored Failure Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Zhou

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the characteristics of the enterprise after-sale service records for field failure data, and summarizes the types of field data. Maximum likelihood estimation method and the least squares method are presented for the complexity and difficulty of field failure data processing, and Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed. Monte Carlo simulation, the relatively simple calculation method, is an effective method, whose result is closed to that of the other two methods. Through the after-sale service records analysis of a specific electromagnetic flowmeter enterprises, this paper illustrates the effectiveness of field failure data processing methods.

  11. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs

  12. Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Son, Khanh; Fouladirad, Mitra; Barros, Anne; Levrat, Eric; Iung, Benoît

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic of system lifetime is a basic requirement for condition-based maintenance in many application domains where safety, reliability, and availability are considered of first importance. This paper presents a probabilistic method for prognostic applied to the 2008 PHM Conference Challenge data. A stochastic process (Wiener process) combined with a data analysis method (Principal Component Analysis) is proposed to model the deterioration of the components and to estimate the RUL on a case study. The advantages of our probabilistic approach are pointed out and a comparison with existing results on the same data is made

  13. Models for estimation of service life of concrete barriers in low-level radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.C.; Plansky, L.E.; Smith, R.W. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

    1990-09-01

    Concrete barriers will be used as intimate parts of systems for isolation of low level radioactive wastes subsequent to disposal. This work reviews mathematical models for estimating the degradation rate of concrete in typical service environments. The models considered cover sulfate attack, reinforcement corrosion, calcium hydroxide leaching, carbonation, freeze/thaw, and cracking. Additionally, fluid flow, mass transport, and geochemical properties of concrete are briefly reviewed. Example calculations included illustrate the types of predictions expected of the models. 79 refs., 24 figs., 6 tabs.

  14. Evolution of Machine Reliability and Life and Economics of Operational Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Młynarski Stanisław

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents new assumptions for reliability and life of machines, resulting from the development of technology. The innovative approach to reliability and life design as well as warranty duration planning is presented on an example of vehicle reliability characteristics. A new algorithm is proposed for the replacement of repairable objects costs by the price of life and reliability of new unrepairable ones. For the planning of the life of innovative machines, an effective method of technical progress rate determination is proposed. In conclusion, necessary modifications of machine and vehicle use systems, resulting from technology evolution and technical progress, are indicated. Finally, recommendations and directions of indispensable research in engineering and management of technical means of production are formulated.

  15. A probabilistic degradation model for the estimation of the remaining life distribution of feeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, X.-X.; Pandey, M.D.; Bickel, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) is a pervasive form of degradation in the outlet feeder pipes of the primary heat transport system of CANDU reactors. The prediction of the end-of-life of a feeder from wall thickness measurement data is confounded by the sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with the FAC degradation phenomenon. Traditional regression-based statistical methods deal with only the sampling uncertainties, leaving the temporal uncertainties unresolved. This paper presents an advanced probabilistic model, which is able to integrate the temporal uncertainties into the prediction of lifetime. In particular, a random gamma process model is proposed to model the FAC process and it is calibrated with a set of wall thickness measurements using the method of maximum likelihood. This information can be used to establish an optimum strategy for inspection and replacement of feeders. (author)

  16. Preliminary estimation of the dose rates of the operation room of the RPR radioisotope cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rocha, A.C.S.; Silva, J.J.G.; Pina, J.L.S. de; Fajardo, P.W.

    1986-07-01

    During the preliminary studies, about the installations layout of a radioisotope production reactor, the possibility of construction of a radioisotope cell at the reactor building has been investigated. The decisions about that construction has considered mainly the level of the radiation dose over the cell operator. The dose rate has been calculated based on: neutron flux and gamma radiation from fission products and activation materials inside the reactor; volatile fission products such as noble gases and iodides; tritium form ternary fission. The objective was calculate the radiation dose over the cell operator during a journey of 8 hours of work per day. For those calculations some data have been obtained from the Angra-3 reactor. (author)

  17. Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

  18. A HEDONIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS FOR NEW YORK MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Schmit, Todd M.; Boisvert, Richard N.

    1997-01-01

    A hedonic cost function is used to isolate the operation and maintenance costs for water treatments. For small systems, costs are substantial for some technologies, but not for others. When regional differences in input costs are accounted for, small systems located in rural areas may have a cost advantage over similar systems closer to urban centers; however, costs of water treatment to meet Safe Drinking Water Act amendments may still be substantial.

  19. Physiological frailty index (PFI): quantitative in-life estimate of individual biological age in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoch, Marina P; Wrobel, Michelle; Kuropatwinski, Karen K; Gitlin, Ilya; Leonova, Katerina I; Toshkov, Ilia; Gleiberman, Anatoli S; Hutson, Alan D; Chernova, Olga B; Gudkov, Andrei V

    2017-03-19

    The development of healthspan-extending pharmaceuticals requires quantitative estimation of age-related progressive physiological decline. In humans, individual health status can be quantitatively assessed by means of a frailty index (FI), a parameter which reflects the scale of accumulation of age-related deficits. However, adaptation of this methodology to animal models is a challenging task since it includes multiple subjective parameters. Here we report a development of a quantitative non-invasive procedure to estimate biological age of an individual animal by creating physiological frailty index (PFI). We demonstrated the dynamics of PFI increase during chronological aging of male and female NIH Swiss mice. We also demonstrated acceleration of growth of PFI in animals placed on a high fat diet, reflecting aging acceleration by obesity and provide a tool for its quantitative assessment. Additionally, we showed that PFI could reveal anti-aging effect of mTOR inhibitor rapatar (bioavailable formulation of rapamycin) prior to registration of its effects on longevity. PFI revealed substantial sex-related differences in normal chronological aging and in the efficacy of detrimental (high fat diet) or beneficial (rapatar) aging modulatory factors. Together, these data introduce PFI as a reliable, non-invasive, quantitative tool suitable for testing potential anti-aging pharmaceuticals in pre-clinical studies.

  20. An estimation of core damage frequency of a pressurized water reactor during mid-loop operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, C.C.; Chen, C.T.; Lee, M.

    2004-01-01

    The core damage frequency during mid-loop operation of a Westinghouse designed 3-loop Pressurizer Water Reactor (PWR) due to loss of Residual Heat Removal (RHR) events was assessed. The assessment considers two types of outages (refueling and drained maintenance), and uses failure data collected specifically for shutdown condition. Event trees were developed for five categories of loss of RHR events. Human actions to mitigate the loss of RHR events was identified and human error probabilities were quantified using HCR and THERP model. The result showed that the core damage frequency due to loss of RHR events during mid-loop operation is 3.1x10 -5 per year. The results also showed that the core damage frequency can be reduced significantly by removing a pressurizer safety valve before entering mid-loop operation. The establishment of reflux cooling, i.e. decay heat removal through steam generator secondary side also plays important role in mitigating the loss of RHR events. (author)

  1. Reduce operational cost and extend the life of pipeline infrastructure by automating remote cathodic protection systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosado, Elroy [Freewave Technologies, Inc., Boulder, CO (United States). Latin America

    2009-07-01

    Energy and Pipeline Companies wrestle to control operating costs largely affected by new government regulations, ageing buried metal assets, rising steel prices, expanding pipeline operations, new interference points, HCA encroachment, restrictive land use policies, heightened network security, and an ageing soon-to-retire work force. With operating costs on the rise, seemingly out of control, many CP and Operations Professionals look to past best practices in cost containment through automation. Many companies achieve solid business results through deployment of telemetry and SCADA automation of remote assets and now hope to expand this success to further optimize operations by automating remote cathodic protection systems. This presentation will provide examples of how new remote cathodic protection systems are helping energy and pipeline companies address the growing issue of the aging pipeline infrastructure and reduce their costs while optimizing their operations. (author)

  2. Long Term Operation R and D to Investigate the Technical Basis for Life Extension and License Renewal Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaertner, John

    2012-01-01

    Establishing an improved technical basis for long term operation of existing plants is a nuclear industry priority. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has responded with a comprehensive Long Term Operation (LTO) Program addressing this need for existing nuclear power plants world-wide. The program supports both the business decisions necessary to achieve high performance operation and the licensing requirements for operation beyond 60 years. The program selects its R and D priorities in a structured and objective way with much industry input to provide useful results for decisions in the 2014 to 2019 time frame. The program is highly collaborative with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and with EPRI-member utilities. The R and D portfolio includes materials aging (metals, concrete, and cables), modernization of information and control technology, enhanced safety analysis, advanced fuel design, demonstration plant activities, life cycle management, and identification of aging management program need for subsequent license renewal. The program has focussed stakeholders world-wide on the technical issues of long term operation, and it is on-track to provide practical results for life extension and license renewal decisions. (author)

  3. Estimates of the eigenvalues of operator arising in swelling pressure model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanguzhin, Baltabek; Zhapsarbayeva, Lyailya

    2016-01-01

    Swelling pressures from materials confined by structures can cause structural deformations and instability. Due to the complexity of interactions between expansive solid and solid-liquid equilibrium, the forces exerting on retaining structures from swelling are highly nonlinear. This work is our initial attempt to study a simplistic spectral problem based on the Euler-elastic beam theory and some simplistic swelling pressure model. In this work estimates of the eigenvalues of some initial/boundary value problem for nonlinear Euler-elastic beam equation are obtained.

  4. Naval Aircraft Operating and Support Cost-Estimating Model - FY77 Revision

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-01

    cont’d.) SAMPLE DPERflTING AND SUPPDRT COST ESTIMATE CTHQUSAMtiS DP FY77S:> iso AVERAGE AHNUAL TDTflL COST COST PER UE 10 AC TDTflL 939...0 01 1 1 0 0 J 9 ? 9 p 14 0 0J 15 0 0, 9 1 P 1700J 18ij 0 P 1900 P 9p £1 0 0 P £8 00 P 9» £400 P 9J 9P 27001 £8 0 0 P 9p 3 000 £ P 31 01 j P 9 ? 3

  5. PSS32 Impact of dry eye on everyday life (Ideel) - Symptom bother: Estimating cut-off scores for dry eye severity groups

    OpenAIRE

    Acaster, S.; Verboven, Y.; Begley, C.; Chalmers, R.; Abetz, L.; Thompson, T.

    2011-01-01

    The aims of the study were to estimate score ranges associated with dry eye severity based on the Impact of Dry Eye on Everyday Life (IDEEL) Symptom Bother (SB) domain, and to evaluate the overall performance of the SB domain.

  6. Implementation of National Space Policy on US Air Force End of Life Operations and Orbital Debris Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Space Development and Test Directorate, Kirtland AFB, NM, 87117 Recent changes to US space policy regarding the execution of satellite End of Life ( EOL ...procedures have been driven by the rising significance of the orbital debris problem in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Therefore current EOL plans are...considerations for writing operational EOL plans, with special applicability to military missions and focus on LEO satellites that are unable to relocate

  7. Comparing Fatigue Life Estimations of Composite Wind Turbine Blades using different Fatigue Analysis Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ardila, Oscar Gerardo Castro; Lennie, Matthew; Branner, Kim

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, fatigue lifetime prediction of NREL 5MW reference wind turbine is presented. The fatigue response of materials used in selected blade cross sections was obtained by applying macroscopic fatigue approaches and assuming uniaxial stress states. Power production and parked load cases...... suggested by the IEC 61400-1 standard were studied employing different load time intervals and by using two novel fatigue tools called ALBdeS and BECAS+F. The aeroelastic loads were defined thought aeroelastic simulations performed with both FAST and HAWC2 tools. The stress spectra at each layer were...... calculated employing laminated composite theory and beam cross section methods. The Palmgren-Miner linear damage rule was used to calculate the accumulation damage. The theoretical results produced by both fatigue tools proved a prominent effect of analysed design load conditions on the estimated lifetime...

  8. Unified approach for estimating the probabilistic design S-N curves of three commonly used fatigue stress-life models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yongxiang; Wang Jinnuo; Gao Qing

    2001-01-01

    A unified approach, referred to as general maximum likelihood method, is presented for estimating probabilistic design S-N curves and their confidence bounds of the three commonly used fatigue stress-life models, namely three parameter, Langer and Basquin. The curves are described by a general form of mean and standard deviation S-N curves of the logarithm of fatigue life. Different from existent methods, i.e., the conventional method and the classical maximum likelihood method,present approach considers the statistical characteristics of whole test data. The parameters of the mean curve is firstly estimated by least square method and then, the parameters of the standard deviation curve is evaluated by mathematical programming method to be agreement with the maximum likelihood principle. Fit effects of the curves are assessed by fitted relation coefficient, total fitted standard error and the confidence bounds. Application to the virtual stress amplitude-crack initiation life data of a nuclear engineering material, Chinese 1Cr18Ni9Ti stainless steel pipe-weld metal, has indicated the validity of the approach to the S-N data where both S and N show the character of random variable. Practices to the two states of S-N data of Chinese 45 carbon steel notched specimens (k t = 2.0) have indicated the validity of present approach to the test results obtained respectively from group fatigue test and from maximum likelihood fatigue test. At the practices, it was revealed that in general the fit is best for the three-parameter model,slightly inferior for the Langer relation and poor for the Basquin equation. Relative to the existent methods, present approach has better fit. In addition, the possible non-conservative predictions of the existent methods, which are resulted from the influence of local statistical characteristics of the data, are also overcome by present approach

  9. Operational Actual Wetland Evapotranspiration Estimation for South Florida Using MODIS Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristobal N. Ceron

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is a reliable indicator of wetland health. Wetlands are an important and valuable ecosystem on the South Florida landscape. Accurate wetland Actual Evapotranspiration (AET data can be used to evaluate the performance of South Florida’s Everglades restoration programs. However, reliable AET measurements rely on scattered point measurements restricting applications over a larger area. The objective of this study was to validate the ability of the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB approach and the Simple Method (also called the Abtew Method to provide large area AET estimates for wetland recovery efforts. The study used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor spectral data and South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD solar radiation data to derive weekly AET values for South Florida. The SSEB-Simple Method approach provided acceptable results with good agreement with observed values during the critical dry season period, when cloud cover was low (rave (n = 59 = 0.700, pave < 0.0005, but requires further refinement to be viable for yearly estimates because of poor performance during wet season months, mainly because of cloud contamination. The approach can be useful for short-term wetland recovery assessment projects that occur during the dry season and/or long term projects that compare site AET rates from dry season to dry season.

  10. ESTIMATION MODEL OF RESIDUAL LIFE-TIME OF LOCOMOTIVE FRAME BOGIE WITH ALLOWANCE FOR CREEP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. Skalskyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The problem of determining the residual life of frame bogie elements of locomotives is a great importance for predicting their work safely and avoidance potential failures on the track. This especially concern cases when such elements have creep-fatigue cracks which grow under action of cyclic loading with excerpts T1 in the cycle and reach their critical size. Here the question of the propagation of such defects (cracks arises, their kinetics and about the period of subcritical cracks growth. The aim is to develop a calculation model for determination the period of subcritical creep-fatigue cracks growth in the bogies frames of electric locomotive. The model takes into account the basic parameters of load, geometry of the construction element and cracks. Methodology. The calculation model for determination the period of subcritical creep-fatigue cracks growth in structural elements of frame under conditions of variable load time has been formulated. It is based on the first law of thermodynamics concerning to mechanics of solids slow fracture at low temperature creep and variable loadings. It is assumed that the period of unsteady creep dominates here (the first section of the creep curve. Low-temperature creep is creep of materials at temperatures T0 < 0,5Tmp, where Tmp − the melting point of the material. Findings. The analytical formula for the determination of the stress intensity factor of truck bolster with technological hole has been obtained. It is shown that by experimentally established constants of the material using the proposed analytical relations can easily determine residual resource of the bogie frame elements. Originality. The new mathematical model for describing the kinetics of creep-fatigue cracks growth in the frames bogies of electric locomotive under variable in time loadings with various time excerpts and on this base the period determination of subcritical crack growth has been proposed. Practical value

  11. Estimation of quality of life in Cypriot patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsoukka, Maria; Jelastopulu, Eleni; Lavranos, Giagkos; Charalambous, George

    2017-01-07

    To investigate the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients suffering with idiopathic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The Greek validated version of the Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire was used for evaluating the quality of life of IBD patients. The questionnaire was distributed to 100 consecutive patients suffering from IBD and presenting for a clinic appointment at the endoscopy unit of Larnaca General Hospital during the period from October to November 2012. The criteria for participating in this study were constituted by the documented diagnosis of either ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) after endoscopy and histologic examination at least 6 months before the study, adult patients (18 years old or older), the capability of verbal communication and the patient's written consent for attending this study. The majority of the questionnaires were completed by a nurse practitioner who specializes in IBD patient care. Regarding the physical dimension in patients with UC, males scored significantly higher than females (4.2 vs 3.4, P = 0.023). Higher scores were also observed in UC patients younger than 35 or older than 50 years (4.0 and 4.2 vs 3.2, respectively, P = 0.021). The psychological dimension revealed similar results in patients with UC, with males, and older ages scoring higher (5.0 vs 3.0, P = 0.01 and 4.7 vs 2.7, P married compared to unmarried (3.83 vs 2.33, P = 0.042). No statistical differences in any parameters in the social dimension were observed. Regarding the treatment of, patients with CD, overall higher scores were observed when treated with biological factors compared to standard therapy in all dimensions but with statistical significant difference in the social dimension (5.00 vs 3.25, P = 0.045). The study reveals a negative impact of IBD on HRQoL. Increased risks are age and gender in patients with UC and family status in patients with CD.

  12. Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas

    OpenAIRE

    Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Design Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. Setting 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Outcome measures Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectan...

  13. Estimation of intra-operator variability in perfusion parameter measurements using DCE-US.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauthier, Marianne; Leguerney, Ingrid; Thalmensi, Jessie; Chebil, Mohamed; Parisot, Sarah; Peronneau, Pierre; Roche, Alain; Lassau, Nathalie

    2011-03-28

    To investigate intra-operator variability of semi-quantitative perfusion parameters using dynamic contrast-enhanced ultrasonography (DCE-US), following bolus injections of SonoVue(®). The in vitro experiments were conducted using three in-house sets up based on pumping a fluid through a phantom placed in a water tank. In the in vivo experiments, B16F10 melanoma cells were xenografted to five nude mice. Both in vitro and in vivo, images were acquired following bolus injections of the ultrasound contrast agent SonoVue(®) (Bracco, Milan, Italy) and using a Toshiba Aplio(®) ultrasound scanner connected to a 2.9-5.8 MHz linear transducer (PZT, PLT 604AT probe) (Toshiba, Japan) allowing harmonic imaging ("Vascular Recognition Imaging") involving linear raw data. A mathematical model based on the dye-dilution theory was developed by the Gustave Roussy Institute, Villejuif, France and used to evaluate seven perfusion parameters from time-intensity curves. Intra-operator variability analyses were based on determining perfusion parameter coefficients of variation (CV). In vitro, different volumes of SonoVue(®) were tested with the three phantoms: intra-operator variability was found to range from 2.33% to 23.72%. In vivo, experiments were performed on tumor tissues and perfusion parameters exhibited values ranging from 1.48% to 29.97%. In addition, the area under the curve (AUC) and the area under the wash-out (AUWO) were two of the parameters of great interest since throughout in vitro and in vivo experiments their variability was lower than 15.79%. AUC and AUWO appear to be the most reliable parameters for assessing tumor perfusion using DCE-US as they exhibited the lowest CV values.

  14. Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

    2017-12-01

    Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

  15. Ethnic disparities in educational and occupational gradients of estimated cardiovascular disease risk: The Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perini, Wilco; Agyemang, Charles; Snijder, Marieke B; Peters, Ron J G; Kunst, Anton E

    2018-03-01

    European societies are becoming increasingly ethnically diverse. This may have important implications for socio-economic inequalities in health due to the often disadvantaged position of ethnic minority groups in both socio-economic status (SES) and disease, especially cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to determine whether the socio-economic gradient of estimated CVD risk differs between ethnic groups. Using the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting study, we obtained data on SES and CVD risk factors among participants from six ethnic backgrounds residing in Amsterdam. SES was measured using educational level and occupational level. CVD risk was estimated based on the occurrence of CVD risk factors using the Dutch version of the systematic coronary risk evaluation algorithm. Ethnic disparities in socio-economic gradients for estimated CVD risk were determined using the relative index of inequality (RII). Among Dutch-origin men, the RII for estimated CVD risk according to educational level was 6.15% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.35-7.96%), indicating that those at the bottom of the educational hierarchy had a 6.15% higher estimated CVD risk relative than those at the top. Among Dutch-origin women, the RII was 4.49% (CI 2.45-6.52%). The RII was lower among ethnic minority groups, ranging from 0.83% to 3.13% among men and -0.29% to 5.12% among women, indicating weaker associations among these groups. Results were similar based on occupational level. Ethnic background needs to be considered in associations between SES and disease. The predictive value of SES varies between ethnic groups and may be quite poor for some groups.

  16. The Lifetime Estimate for ACSR Single-Stage Splice Connector Operating at Higher Temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jy-An John; Graziano, Joe; Chan, John

    2011-01-01

    This paper is the continuation of Part I effort to develop a protocol of integrating analytical and experimental approaches to evaluate the integrity of a full tension single-stage splice connector (SSC) assembly during service at high operating temperature.1The Part II efforts are mainly focused on the thermal mechanical testing, thermal-cycling simulation and its impact on the effective lifetime of the SSC system. The investigation indicates that thermal cycling temperature and frequency, conductor cable tension loading, and the compressive residual stress field within a SSC system have significant impact on the SSC integrity and the associated effective lifetime.

  17. Tool Wear and Life Span Variations in Cold Forming Operations and Their Implications in Microforming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders E. W. Jarfors

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The current paper aims to review tooling life span, failure modes and models in cold microforming processes. As there is nearly no information available on tool-life for microforming the starting point was conventional cold forming. In cold forming common failures are (1 over stressing of the tool; (2 abrasive wear; (3 galling or adhesive wear, and (4 fatigue failure. The large variation in tool life observed in production and how to predict this was reviewed as this is important to the viability of microforming based on that the tooling cost takes a higher portion of the part cost. Anisotropic properties of the tool materials affect tool life span and depend on both the as-received and in-service conditions. It was concluded that preconditioning of the tool surface, and coating are important to control wear and fatigue. Properly managed, the detrimental effects from surface particles can be reduced. Under high stress low-cycle fatigue conditions, fatigue failure form internal microstructures and inclusions are common. To improve abrasive wear resistance larger carbides are commonly the solution which will have a negative impact on tooling life as these tend to be the root cause of fatigue failures. This has significant impact on cold microforming.

  18. Forecasting ofuseful life of the structures of a production building during operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pshenichkina Valeriya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a probabilistic concept of practical evaluation of the individual resource of structures of industrial buildings and structures in operation. The results of calculation of a monolithic reinforced concrete overpass for safety and durability are given. The quantitative values of the resource are obtained for a given security of operability.

  19. Quantitative estimation of the human error probability during soft control operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Kim, Jaewhan; Jung, Wondea

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► An HRA method to evaluate execution HEP for soft control operations was proposed. ► The soft control tasks were analyzed and design-related influencing factors were identified. ► An application to evaluate the effects of soft controls was performed. - Abstract: In this work, a method was proposed for quantifying human errors that can occur during operation executions using soft controls. Soft controls of advanced main control rooms have totally different features from conventional controls, and thus they may have different human error modes and occurrence probabilities. It is important to identify the human error modes and quantify the error probability for evaluating the reliability of the system and preventing errors. This work suggests an evaluation framework for quantifying the execution error probability using soft controls. In the application result, it was observed that the human error probabilities of soft controls showed both positive and negative results compared to the conventional controls according to the design quality of advanced main control rooms

  20. Changes in Health-Related Quality of Life During Rehabilitation in Patients With Operable Lung Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Maja S.; Trier, Karen; Vibe-Petersen, Jette

    2017-01-01

    . RESULTS: Forty patients were included, 73% of whom completed rehabilitation. Results on emotional well-being (P mental health component score (P = .0004) showed an overall statistically significant improvement during the study. CONCLUSION: This feasibility...... study demonstrated that global quality of life, mental health, and emotional well-being improved significantly during the study, from time of diagnosis until 1 year after resection, in patients with NSCLC participating in rehabilitation.......INTRODUCTION: Surgical resection in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be associated with significant morbidity, functional limitations, and decreased quality of life. OBJECTIVES: The objective is to present health-related quality of life (HRQoL) changes over time before and 1...

  1. Creep life management system for a turbine engine and method of operating the same

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tralshawala, Nilesh; Miller, Harold Edward; Badami, Vivek Venugopal; Vittal, Sameer; Sexton, Daniel White

    2016-11-15

    A creep life management system includes at least one sensor apparatus coupled to a first component. The at least one sensor apparatus is configured with a unique identifier. The creep life management system also includes at least one reader unit coupled to a second component. The at least one reader unit is configured to transmit an interrogation request signal to the at least one sensor apparatus and receive a measurement response signal transmitted from the at least one sensor apparatus. The creep life management system further includes at least one processor programmed to determine a real-time creep profile of the first component as a function of the measurement response signal transmitted from the at least one sensor apparatus.

  2. A possible approach to estimating the operational efficiency of multiprocessor systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsov, N.Y.; Gorlach, S.P.; Sumskaya, A.A.

    1984-01-01

    This article presents a mathematical model that constructs the upper and lower estimates evaluating the efficiency of solution of a large class of problems using a multiprocessor system with a specific architecture. Efficiency depends on a system's architecture (e.g., the number of processors, memory volume, the number of communication links, commutation speed) and the types of problems it is intended to solve. The behavior of the model is considered in a stationary mode. The model is used to evaluate the efficiency of a particular algorithm implemented in a multiprocessor system. It is concluded that the model is flexible and enables the investigation of a broad class of problems in computational mathematics, including linear algebra and boundary-value problems of mathematical physics

  3. Diagnosis of Heat Exchanger Tube Failure in Fossil Fuel Boilers Through Estimation of Steady State Operating Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herszage, A.; Toren, M.

    1998-01-01

    Estimation of operating conditions for fossil fuel boiler heat exchangers is often required due to changes in working conditions, design modifications and especially for monitoring performance and failure diagnosis. Regular heat exchangers in fossil fuel boilers are composed of tube banks through which water or steam flow, while hot combustion (flue) gases flow outside the tubes. This work presents a top-down approach to operating conditions estimation based on field measurements. An example for a 350 MW unit superheater is thoroughly discussed. Integral calculations based on measurements for all unit heat exchangers (reheaters, superheaters) were performed first. Based on these calculations a scheme of integral conservation equations (lumped parameter) was then formulated at the single tube level. Steady state temperatures of superheater tube walls were obtained as a main output, and were compared to the maximum allowable operating temperatures of the tubes material. A combined lumped parameter - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics, FLUENT code) approach constitutes an efficient tool in certain cases. A brief report of such a case is given for another unit superheater. We conclude that steady state evaluations based on both integral and detailed simulations are a valuable monitoring and diagnosis tool for the power generation industry

  4. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyong Ju; Yun, Won Gun; Cho, Namho; Ha, Jikwang

    2017-01-01

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  5. Life cycle assessment based environmental impact estimation model for pre-stressed concrete beam bridge in the early design phase

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kyong Ju, E-mail: kjkim@cau.ac.kr; Yun, Won Gun, E-mail: ogun78@naver.com; Cho, Namho, E-mail: nhc51@cau.ac.kr; Ha, Jikwang, E-mail: wlrhkd29@gmail.com

    2017-05-15

    The late rise in global concern for environmental issues such as global warming and air pollution is accentuating the need for environmental assessments in the construction industry. Promptly evaluating the environmental loads of the various design alternatives during the early stages of a construction project and adopting the most environmentally sustainable candidate is therefore of large importance. Yet, research on the early evaluation of a construction project's environmental load in order to aid the decision making process is hitherto lacking. In light of this dilemma, this study proposes a model for estimating the environmental load by employing only the most basic information accessible during the early design phases of a project for the pre-stressed concrete (PSC) beam bridge, the most common bridge structure. Firstly, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted on the data from 99 bridges by integrating the bills of quantities (BOQ) with a life cycle inventory (LCI) database. The processed data was then utilized to construct a case based reasoning (CBR) model for estimating the environmental load. The accuracy of the estimation model was then validated using five test cases; the model's mean absolute error rates (MAER) for the total environmental load was calculated as 7.09%. Such test results were shown to be superior compared to those obtained from a multiple-regression based model and a slab area base-unit analysis model. Henceforth application of this model during the early stages of a project is expected to highly complement environmentally friendly designs and construction by facilitating the swift evaluation of the environmental load from multiple standpoints. - Highlights: • This study is to develop the model of assessing the environmental impacts on LCA. • Bills of quantity from completed designs of PSC Beam were linked with the LCI DB. • Previous cases were used to estimate the environmental load of new case by CBR model. • CBR

  6. The effect of a low-speed automatic brake system estimated from real life data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksson-Hellman, Irene; Lindman, Magdalena

    2012-01-01

    A substantial part of all traffic accidents involving passenger cars are rear-end collisions and most of them occur at low speed. Auto Brake is a feature that has been launched in several passenger car models during the last few years. City Safety is a technology designed to help the driver mitigate, and in certain situations avoid, rear-end collisions at low speed by automatically braking the vehicle.Studies have been presented that predict promising benefits from these kinds of systems, but few attempts have been made to show the actual effect of Auto Brake. In this study, the effect of City Safety, a standard feature on the Volvo XC60 model, is calculated based on insurance claims data from cars in real traffic crashes in Sweden. The estimated claim frequency of rear-end frontal collisions measured in claims per 1,000 insured vehicle years was 23% lower for the City Safety equipped XC60 model than for other Volvo models without the system.

  7. Application of HRV-CD for estimation of life expectancy in various clinical disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almoznino-Sarafian, Dorit; Sarafian, Gideon; Zyssman, Itzhak; Shteinshnaider, Miriam; Tzur, Irma; Kaplan, Ben-Zion; Berman, Sylvia; Cohen, Natan; Gorelik, Oleg

    2009-12-01

    Low heart rate variability (HRV) was found in various medical conditions including heart failure and acute myocardial infarction. Decreased HRV in these conditions predicted poor prognosis. HRV was estimated in 133 unselected inpatients with relevant clinical bedside conditions by non-linear analysis derived from chaos theory, which calculates the correlation dimension (CD) of the cardiac electrophysiologic system (HRV-CD). Mean HRV-CD in the entire group was 3.75+/-0.45. Heart failure, coronary artery disease, cardiac arrhythmia, low serum potassium, renal dysfunction, and diabetes mellitus were significantly associated with reduced HRV-CD compared to their counterparts [3.6 vs. 3.9 (P3.75) was associated with lower survival (P=.01). Mortality of diabetic patients with HRV-CD 3.75 (P=.02). Heart failure, renal dysfunction or age over 70 combined with HRV-CD < or =3.75 also appeared to be associated with augmented mortality. Diminished HRV-CD is associated with heart failure, coronary artery disease, cardiac arrhythmia, renal dysfunction, diabetes mellitus and low serum potassium. Among the latter, heart failure is most significantly associated with decreased HRV-CD. Decreased HRV-CD values, especially in diabetics, are also associated with lower survival.

  8. Operating cost estimate low-level radioactive waste volume reduction and packaging options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, P.C.; Collins, E.G.

    1983-01-01

    The projected operating cost data examine the differences in compaction and incineration for DAW. Two commonly achieved densities for compaction are presented, while a third case approaching the theoretical density of the cloth and paper materials shows the interesting possibilities of improved compaction. Incineration at two benchmarks for the chlorinated plastic component of typical DAW illustrates the impact waste stream make-up has on economics. Evaporator concentrates are considered as a liquid at four concentrations (6%, 12%, 25% and 50%) and after all water has been removed for the cement and polymer cases. Five separate processing schemes are presented for bead resins. These range from dewatering and packaging in high integrity containers to incineration with solidification

  9. Estimating the potential of energy saving and carbon emission mitigation of cassava-based fuel ethanol using life cycle assessment coupled with a biogeochemical process model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Dong; Hao, Mengmeng; Fu, Jingying; Tian, Guangjin; Ding, Fangyu

    2017-09-01

    Global warming and increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) have prompted considerable interest in the potential role of energy plant biomass. Cassava-based fuel ethanol is one of the most important bioenergy and has attracted much attention in both developed and developing countries. However, the development of cassava-based fuel ethanol is still faced with many uncertainties, including raw material supply, net energy potential, and carbon emission mitigation potential. Thus, an accurate estimation of these issues is urgently needed. This study provides an approach to estimate energy saving and carbon emission mitigation potentials of cassava-based fuel ethanol through LCA (life cycle assessment) coupled with a biogeochemical process model—GEPIC (GIS-based environmental policy integrated climate) model. The results indicate that the total potential of cassava yield on marginal land in China is 52.51 million t; the energy ratio value varies from 0.07 to 1.44, and the net energy surplus of cassava-based fuel ethanol in China is 92,920.58 million MJ. The total carbon emission mitigation from cassava-based fuel ethanol in China is 4593.89 million kgC. Guangxi, Guangdong, and Fujian are identified as target regions for large-scale development of cassava-based fuel ethanol industry. These results can provide an operational approach and fundamental data for scientific research and energy planning.

  10. A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

  11. Estimated cumulative radiation dose received by diagnostic imaging during staging and treatment of operable Ewing sarcoma 2005-2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnsen, Boel [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); Fasmer, Kristine Eldevik [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Section, Bergen (Norway); Boye, Kjetil [Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Oslo (Norway); Rosendahl, Karen; Aukland, Stein Magnus [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Paediatric Section, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Trovik, Clement [University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Surgery, Orthopaedic Section, Bergen (Norway); Biermann, Martin [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway)

    2017-01-15

    Patients with Ewing sarcoma are subject to various diagnostic procedures that incur exposure to ionising radiation. To estimate the radiation doses received from all radiologic and nuclear imaging episodes during diagnosis and treatment, and to determine whether {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography - computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET-CT) is a major contributor of radiation. Twenty Ewing sarcoma patients diagnosed in Norway in 2005-2012 met the inclusion criteria (age <30 years, operable disease, uncomplicated chemotherapy and surgery, no metastasis or residual disease within a year of diagnosis). Radiation doses from all imaging during the first year were calculated for each patient. The mean estimated cumulative radiation dose for all patients was 34 mSv (range: 6-70), radiography accounting for 3 mSv (range: 0.2-12), CT for 13 mSv (range: 2-28) and nuclear medicine for 18 mSv (range: 2-47). For the patients examined with PET-CT, the mean estimated cumulative effective dose was 38 mSv, of which PET-CT accounted for 14 mSv (37%). There was large variation in number and type of examinations performed and also in estimated cumulative radiation dose. The mean radiation dose for patients examined with PET-CT was 23% higher than for patients not examined with PET-CT. (orig.)

  12. Estimated cumulative radiation dose received by diagnostic imaging during staging and treatment of operable Ewing sarcoma 2005-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, Boel; Fasmer, Kristine Eldevik; Boye, Kjetil; Rosendahl, Karen; Aukland, Stein Magnus; Trovik, Clement; Biermann, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Patients with Ewing sarcoma are subject to various diagnostic procedures that incur exposure to ionising radiation. To estimate the radiation doses received from all radiologic and nuclear imaging episodes during diagnosis and treatment, and to determine whether 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography - computed tomography ( 18 F-FDG PET-CT) is a major contributor of radiation. Twenty Ewing sarcoma patients diagnosed in Norway in 2005-2012 met the inclusion criteria (age <30 years, operable disease, uncomplicated chemotherapy and surgery, no metastasis or residual disease within a year of diagnosis). Radiation doses from all imaging during the first year were calculated for each patient. The mean estimated cumulative radiation dose for all patients was 34 mSv (range: 6-70), radiography accounting for 3 mSv (range: 0.2-12), CT for 13 mSv (range: 2-28) and nuclear medicine for 18 mSv (range: 2-47). For the patients examined with PET-CT, the mean estimated cumulative effective dose was 38 mSv, of which PET-CT accounted for 14 mSv (37%). There was large variation in number and type of examinations performed and also in estimated cumulative radiation dose. The mean radiation dose for patients examined with PET-CT was 23% higher than for patients not examined with PET-CT. (orig.)

  13. Quality of life of men after various methods of operative treatment for urethral stricture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Quality of life of patients was the best after substitution buccal urethroplasty and Turner-Warwick modified by Webster anastomotic urethroplasty, than after internal optical urethrotomy. It is caused by high frequency of recurrence of urethral stricture after internal optical urethrotomy that dictates necessity of its use only at strict indications.

  14. Quality of life of men after various methods of operative treatment for urethral stricture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Pushkar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality of life of patients was the best after substitution buccal urethroplasty and Turner-Warwick modified by Webster anastomotic urethroplasty, than after internal optical urethrotomy. It is caused by high frequency of recurrence of urethral stricture after internal optical urethrotomy that dictates necessity of its use only at strict indications.

  15. Detailed Life Cycle Assessment of Bounty Paper Towel Operations in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a well-established and informative method of understanding the environmental impacts of consumer products across the entire value chain. However, companies committed to sustainability are interested in more methods that examine their products and ac...

  16. Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guihua; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P. Y.

    Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air quality

  17. Estimating changes in urban ozone concentrations due to life cycle emissions from hydrogen transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guihua Wang; Ogden, Joan M.; Chang, Daniel P.Y.

    2007-01-01

    Hydrogen has been proposed as a low polluting alternative transportation fuel that could help improve urban air quality. This paper examines the potential impact of introducing a hydrogen-based transportation system on urban ambient ozone concentrations. This paper considers two scenarios, where significant numbers of new hydrogen vehicles are added to a constant number of gasoline vehicles. In our scenarios hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are introduced in Sacramento, California at market penetrations of 9% and 20%. From a life cycle analysis (LCA) perspective, considering all the emissions involved in producing, transporting, and using hydrogen, this research compares three hypothetical natural gas to hydrogen pathways: (1) on-site hydrogen production; (2) central hydrogen production with pipeline delivery; and (3) central hydrogen production with liquid hydrogen truck delivery. Using a regression model, this research shows that the daily maximum temperature correlates well with atmospheric ozone formation. However, increases in initial VOC and NO x concentrations do not necessarily increase the peak ozone concentration, and may even cause it to decrease. It is found that ozone formation is generally limited by NO x in the summer and is mostly limited by VOC in the fall in Sacramento. Of the three hydrogen pathways, the truck delivery pathway contributes the most to ozone precursor emissions. Ozone precursor emissions from the truck pathway at 9% market penetration can cause additional 3-h average VOC (or NO x ) concentrations up to approximately 0.05% (or 1%) of current pollution levels, and at 20% market penetration up to approximately 0.1% (or 2%) of current pollution levels. However, all of the hydrogen pathways would result in very small (either negative or positive) changes in ozone air quality. In some cases they will result in worse ozone air quality (mostly in July, August, and September), and in some cases they will result in better ozone air

  18. Training and certification program of the operating staff for a 90-day test of a regenerative life support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    Prior to beginning a 90-day test of a regenerative life support system, a need was identified for a training and certification program to qualify an operating staff for conducting the test. The staff was responsible for operating and maintaining the test facility, monitoring and ensuring crew safety, and implementing procedures to ensure effective mission performance with good data collection and analysis. The training program was designed to ensure that each operating staff member was capable of performing his assigned function and was sufficiently cross-trained to serve at certain other positions on a contingency basis. Complicating the training program were budget and schedule limitations, and the high level of sophistication of test systems.

  19. Synthesis document on the long life behavior of packages: reference operational document ''CSD-C'' 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helie, M.

    2004-12-01

    This document is realized in the framework of the law of 1991 on the radioactive wastes management. The 2004 synthesis document on long time behavior of standard packages of compacted wastes is constituted by two documents, the reference document and the operational document. This paper presents the operational model describing the packages alteration by the water and the associated radionuclide release. (A.L.B.)

  20. Estimation of doses received by operators in the 1958 RB reactor accident using the MCNP5 computer code simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Milan P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical simulation of the radiological consequences of the RB reactor reactivity excursion accident, which occurred on October 15, 1958, and an estimation of the total doses received by the operators were run by the MCNP5 computer code. The simulation was carried out under the same assumptions as those used in the 1960 IAEA-organized experimental simulation of the accident: total fission energy of 80 MJ released in the accident and the frozen positions of the operators. The time interval of exposure to high doses received by the operators has been estimated. Data on the RB1/1958 reactor core relevant to the accident are given. A short summary of the accident scenario has been updated. A 3-D model of the reactor room and the RB reactor tank, with all the details of the core, created. For dose determination, 3-D simplified, homogenised, sexless and faceless phantoms, placed inside the reactor room, have been developed. The code was run for a number of neutron histories which have given a dose rate uncertainty of less than 2%. For the determination of radiation spectra escaping the reactor core and radiation interaction in the tissue of the phantoms, the MCNP5 code was run (in the KCODE option and “mode n p e”, with a 55-group neutron spectra, 35-group gamma ray spectra and a 10-group electron spectra. The doses were determined by using the conversion of flux density (obtained by the F4 tally in the phantoms to doses using factors taken from ICRP-74 and from the deposited energy of neutrons and gamma rays (obtained by the F6 tally in the phantoms’ tissue. A rough estimation of the time moment when the odour of ozone was sensed by the operators is estimated for the first time and given in Appendix A.1. Calculated total absorbed and equivalent doses are compared to the previously reported ones and an attempt to understand and explain the reasons for the obtained differences has been made. A Root Cause Analysis of the accident was done and

  1. Gains in life expectancy after elimination of major causes of death: revised estimates taking into account the effect of competing causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.; Lautenbach, H.; Oei, Y. B.; Bijlsma, F.

    1999-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It is generally acknowledged that conventional estimates of the potential number of life years to be gained by elimination of causes of death are too generous. This is because these estimates fail to take into account the fact that those who are saved from the cause are likely to have

  2. Estimates for the Aerodynamic Coefficients of Ringsail and Disk-Gap-Band Parachutes Operating on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Juan R.; Snyder, Miranda L.

    2017-01-01

    Models are presented for the aerodynamic coefficients of Supersonic Ringsail and Disk-Gap-Band parachutes as functions of total porosity, Lambda(sub t), Mach number, M, and total angle of attack, Alpha(sub t) (when necessary). The source aerodynamic coefficients data used for creating these models were obtained from a wind tunnel test of subscale parachutes. In this wind tunnel test, subscale parachutes of both parachute types were fabricated from two different fabrics with very different permeabilities. By varying the fabric permeability, while maintaining the parachute geometry constant, it was possible to vary Alpha(sub t). The fabric permeability test data necessary for the calculation of Alpha(sub t) were obtained from samples of the same fabrics used to fabricate the subscale parachutes. Although the models for the aerodynamic coefficients are simple polynomial functions of Alpha(sub t) and M, they are capable of producing good reproductions of the source data. The (Alpha(sub t), M) domains over which these models are applicable are clearly defined. The models are applicable to flight operations on Mars.

  3. The Job Satisfaction-Life Satisfaction Relationship Revisited: Using the Lewbel Estimation Technique to Estimate Causal Effects Using Cross-Sectional Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vinod Mishra; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth; Alex Newman

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a novel identification strategy proposed by Lewbel (2012, J. Bus. Econ. Stat.) to illustrate how causation between job satisfaction and life satisfaction can be established with cross-sectional data. In addition to examining the relationship between composite job satisfaction and life satisfaction, we consider the relationship between life satisfaction and different facets of job satisfaction. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between job satisfaction and life satisf...

  4. An Estimation of the Whole-of-Life Noise Exposure of Adolescent and Young Adult Australians with Hearing Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Lyndal; Black, Deborah; Bundy, Anita; Williams, Warwick

    2016-10-01

    Since amplified music gained widespread popularity, there has been community concern that leisure-noise exposure may cause hearing loss in adolescents and young adults who would otherwise be free from hearing impairment. Repeated exposure to personal stereo players and music events (e.g., nightclubbing, rock concerts, and music festivals) are of particular concern. The same attention has not been paid to leisure-noise exposure risks for young people with hearing impairment (either present from birth or acquired before adulthood). This article reports on the analysis of a subset of data (leisure participation measures) collected during a large, two-phase study of the hearing health, attitudes, and behaviors of 11- to 35-yr-old Australians conducted by the National Acoustic Laboratories (n = 1,667 hearing threshold level datasets analyzed). The overall aim of the two-phase study was to determine whether a relationship between leisure-noise exposure and hearing loss exists. In the current study, the leisure activity profiles and accumulated ("whole-of-life") noise exposures of young people with (1) hearing impairment and (2) with normal hearing were compared. Cross-sectional cohort study. Hearing impaired (HI) group, n = 125; normal (nonimpaired) hearing (NH) group, n = 296, analyzed in two age-based subsets: adolescents (13- to 17-yr-olds) and young adults (18- to 24-yr-olds). Participant survey. The χ² test was used to identify systematic differences between the leisure profiles and exposure estimates of the HI and NH groups. Whole-of-life noise exposure was estimated by adapting techniques described in ISO 1999. For adolescents, leisure profiles were similar for the two groups and few individuals exceeded the stated risk criterion. For young adults, participation was significantly lower for the HI group for 7 out of 18 leisure activities surveyed. Activity diversity and whole-of-life exposure were also significantly lower for the HI group young adults. A

  5. MITRA Virtual laboratory for operative application of satellite time series for land degradation risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nole, Gabriele; Scorza, Francesco; Lanorte, Antonio; Manzi, Teresa; Lasaponara, Rosa

    2015-04-01

    This paper aims to present the development of a tool to integrate time series from active and passive satellite sensors (such as of MODIS, Vegetation, Landsat, ASTER, COSMO, Sentinel) into a virtual laboratory to support studies on landscape and archaeological landscape, investigation on environmental changes, estimation and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic risks. The virtual laboratory is composed by both data and open source tools specifically developed for the above mentioned applications. Results obtained for investigations carried out using the implemented tools for monitoring land degradation issues and subtle changes ongoing on forestry and natural areas are herein presented. In detail MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat time series were analyzed comparing results of different statistical analyses and the results integrated with ancillary data and evaluated with field survey. The comparison of the outputs we obtained for the Basilicata Region from satellite data analyses and independent data sets clearly pointed out the reliability for the diverse change analyses we performed, at the pixel level, using MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat TM data. Next steps are going to be implemented to further advance the current Virtual Laboratory tools, by extending current facilities adding new computational algorithms and applying to other geographic regions. Acknowledgement This research was performed within the framework of the project PO FESR Basilicata 2007/2013 - Progetto di cooperazione internazionale MITRA "Remote Sensing tecnologies for Natural and Cultural heritage Degradation Monitoring for Preservation and valorization" funded by Basilicata Region Reference 1. A. Lanorte, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbance International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

  6. An Optimal Operating Strategy for Battery Life Cycle Costs in Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinghua Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact on petroleum based vehicles on the environment, cost, and availability of fuel has led to an increased interest in electric vehicle as a means of transportation. Battery is a major component in an electric vehicle. Economic viability of these vehicles depends on the availability of cost-effective batteries. This paper presents a generalized formulation for determining the optimal operating strategy and cost optimization for battery. Assume that the deterioration of the battery is stochastic. Under the assumptions, the proposed operating strategy for battery is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem considering reliability and failure number. And an explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived for battery lifetime. Results show that the proposed operating strategy enhances the availability and reliability at a low cost.

  7. The effects of body image impairment on the quality of life of non-operated Portuguese female IBD patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trindade, Inês A; Ferreira, Cláudia; Pinto-Gouveia, José

    2017-02-01

    Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) and their treatment are known to negatively impact on patients' body image, especially female patients. However, although there are broad evidences of body image impairment in female IBD patients, its negative impact on the quality of life (QoL) of non-operated women is not clearly and specifically studied. The aim of the current study was therefore to analyse, in a sample of non-operated female IBD patients, the factors that contribute to body image impairment and its impact on QoL. Ninety-six non-operated women (39.7 % with CD and 60.3 % with UC), aged between 18 and 40 years old, completed an online survey with validated self-report measures, which included the Body Image Scale and the WHO Brief Quality of Life Assessment Scale. Negative body image was correlated with lower psychological and physical QoL and increased corticosteroids use, associated medical complications, body mass index (BMI), and IBD symptomatology. Regression analyses revealed that BMI and IBD symptomatology significantly predicted body image impairment. Furthermore, results from path analyses indicated that BMI and IBD symptomatology's effect on psychological and physical QoL was mediated through the negative effects of body image impairment. This model explained 31 % of psychological QoL and 41 % of physical QoL. These findings suggest that non-operated female patients are subject to pervasive and harmful effects of body image impairment on psychological and physical functioning. Therefore, psychological interventions aiming to target body dissatisfaction should be implemented in the health care of IBD, independently of patients' operative status.

  8. Core design of long life-cycle fast reactors operating without reactivity margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aristova, E. N.; Baydin, D. F.; Gol'din, V. Y.; Pestryakova, G. A.; Stoynov, M. I.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we consider a possibility of designing a fast reactor core that operates without reactivity margin for a long time. This study is based on the physical principle of fast reactor operating in a self-adjustable neutron-nuclear regime (SANNR-1) introduced by L.P. Feoktistov (1988-1993) and improved by V. Ya. Gol'din SANNR-2 (1995). The mathematical modeling of active zones of fast reactors in SANNR modes is held by authors since 1992. The numerical simulation is based on solving the neutron transport equation coupled with quasi-diffusion equations. The calculations have been performed using standard 26 energy groups. We use a hierarchy of spatial models of 1D, 1.5D, 2D, and 3D geometries. The spatial models of higher dimensionality are used for verification of results. The calculations showed that operation of the reactor in this mode increases its efficiency, safety and simplifies management. It is possible to achieve continuous work of the reactor in SANNR-2 during 7-10 years without fuel overloads by means of further optimization of the mode. Small reactivity margin is used only for the reactor start up. After first 10-15 days the reactor in SANNR-2 operates without reactivity margin. (authors)

  9. Regional-level estimation of expected years of life lost attributable to overweight and obesity among Mexican adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Efrén Murillo-Zamora

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Excess body weight has become a major public health problem worldwide, and the burden of overweight and obesity was calculated in this work from a health economics perspective. Objective: To estimate the burden of disease attributable to overweight and obesity among males and females aged 20 years and older using years of life lost (YLL and age-standardized YLL rates (ASYLL, and to rank the leading causes of premature death. Design: A cross-sectional study took place (2010–2014 and 6,054 deaths were analyzed. Thirteen basic causes of death associated with overweight or obesity were included. The population attributable fraction (PAF, YLL, and ASYLL were calculated. Results: The overall burden attributable to overweight and obesity was 36,087 YLL, and the estimated ASYLL per 10,000 persons was 1,098 and 1,029 in males and females, respectively. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was the main cause of premature death (males, 968 ASYLL; females, 772 ASYLL. Conclusions: Overweight and obesity are major risk factors of chronic diseases that are main causes of premature death in the study population. Strategies for preventing overweight and obesity may decrease the incidence and mortality associated with these non-communicable diseases. ASYLL seems to be an indicator that is particularly well adapted to decision-making in public health.

  10. Premium cost optimization of operational and maintenance of green building in Indonesia using life cycle assessment method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latief, Yusuf; Berawi, Mohammed Ali; Basten, Van; Budiman, Rachmat; Riswanto

    2017-06-01

    Building has a big impact on the environmental developments. There are three general motives in building, namely the economy, society, and environment. Total completed building construction in Indonesia increased by 116% during 2009 to 2011. It made the energy consumption increased by 11% within the last three years. In fact, 70% of energy consumption is used for electricity needs on commercial buildings which leads to an increase of greenhouse gas emissions by 25%. Green Building cycle costs is known as highly building upfront cost in Indonesia. The purpose of optimization in this research improves building performance with some of green concept alternatives. Research methodology is mixed method of qualitative and quantitative approaches through questionnaire surveys and case study. Assessing the successful of optimization functions in the existing green building is based on the operational and maintenance phase with the Life Cycle Assessment Method. Choosing optimization results were based on the largest efficiency of building life cycle and the most effective cost to refund.

  11. An approach toward estimating the safety significance of normal and abnormal operating procedures in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grant, T.F.; Harris, M.S.

    1989-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's TMI Action Plan calls for a long-term plan to upgrade operating procedures in nuclear power plants. The scope of Generic Issue Human Factors 4.4, which stems from this requirement, includes the recommendation of improvements in nuclear power plant normal and abnormal operating procedures (NOPs and AOPs) and the implementation of appropriate regulatory action. This paper will describe the objectives, methodologies, and results of a Battelle-conducted value impact assessment to determine the costs and benefits of having the NRC implement regulatory action that would specify requirements for the preparation of acceptable NOPs and AOPs by the Commission's nuclear power plant licensees. The results of this value impact assessment are expressed in terms of ten cost/benefit attributes that can be affected by the NRC regulatory action. Five of these attributes require the calculation of change in public risk that could be expected to result from the action which, in this case, required determining the safety significance of NOPs and AOPs. In order to estimate this safety significance, a multi-step methodology was created that relies on an existing Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide a quantitative framework for modeling the role of operating procedures. The purpose of this methodology is to determine what impact the improvement of NOPs and AOPs would have on public health and safety

  12. Plant life management. An integral part of operation and maintenance policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faidy, C.; Hutin, J.-P.

    2002-01-01

    Electricite de France is now operating 58 PWR nuclear power plants that produce 75% of electricity in France. Besides maintaining safety and availability on a routine basis, it is outmost important to protect the investment. That is the reason why EDF is devoting important resources to implement ageing management concern as an integral part of operation and maintenance programs (for example through appropriate data collection and analysis, specific repair and replacement projects and important anticipation efforts, taking in account the high level of standardisation of the units). A particular organisation has been set up to continuously observe and analyse all activities so as to make sure that ageing concern is correctly taken in account in strategies and that no decisions are susceptible to impair plant lifetime. This 'lifetime program' is paying attention to technical issues associated with main components but is also dealing with issues related to economics and industry situation. (orig.)

  13. Bringing teaching to life: Exploring innovative approaches to operations management education

    OpenAIRE

    Brandon-Jones, Alistair; Piercy, Niall; Slack, N

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The aim of this review and of the papers in this special issue is to critically examine different approaches to teaching operations management (OM) in order to provoke and stimulate educators within the discipline. Design/methodology/approach – The papers within this special issue include empirical assessments of a problem-based learning enterprise resource planning (ERP) simulation; a computer-based learning tool for material requirements planning (MRP); a simulation of assembly op...

  14. Virtualization of Legacy Instrumentation Control Computers for Improved Reliability, Operational Life, and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katz, Jonathan E

    2017-01-01

    Laboratories tend to be amenable environments for long-term reliable operation of scientific measurement equipment. Indeed, it is not uncommon to find equipment 5, 10, or even 20+ years old still being routinely used in labs. Unfortunately, the Achilles heel for many of these devices is the control/data acquisition computer. Often these computers run older operating systems (e.g., Windows XP) and, while they might only use standard network, USB or serial ports, they require proprietary software to be installed. Even if the original installation disks can be found, it is a burdensome process to reinstall and is fraught with "gotchas" that can derail the process-lost license keys, incompatible hardware, forgotten configuration settings, etc. If you have running legacy instrumentation, the computer is the ticking time bomb waiting to put a halt to your operation.In this chapter, I describe how to virtualize your currently running control computer. This virtualized computer "image" is easy to maintain, easy to back up and easy to redeploy. I have used this multiple times in my own lab to greatly improve the robustness of my legacy devices.After completing the steps in this chapter, you will have your original control computer as well as a virtual instance of that computer with all the software installed ready to control your hardware should your original computer ever be decommissioned.

  15. IEA-R1 research reactor: operational life extension and considerations regarding future decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frajndlich, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    The IEA-R1 reactor is a pool type research reactor moderated and cooled by light water and uses graphite and beryllium reflectors. The reactor is located at the Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN-CNEN/SP), in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It is the oldest research reactor in the southern hemisphere and one of the oldest of this kind in the world. The first criticality of the reactor was obtained on September 16, 1957. Given the fact that Brazil does not have yet a definitive radioactive waste repository and a national policy establishing rules for the spent fuel storage, the institutions which operate the research reactors for more than 50 years in the country have searched internal solutions for continued operation. This paper describes the spent fuel assemblies and radioactive waste management process for the IEA-R1 reactor and the refurbishment and modernization program adopted to extend its lifetime. Some considerations about the future decommissioning of the reactor are also discussed which, in my opinion, might help the operating organization to make decisions about financial, legal and technical aspects of the decommissioning procedures in a time frame of 10-15 years(author)

  16. Environmental impact assessment of a package type IFAS reactor during construction and operational phases: a life cycle approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Nitin Kumar; Singh, Rana Pratap; Kazmi, Absar Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    In the present study, a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach was used to analyse the environmental impacts associated with the construction and operational phases of an integrated fixed-film activated sludge (IFAS) reactor treating municipal wastewater. This study was conducted within the boundaries of a research project that aimed to investigate the implementation related challenges of a package type IFAS reactor from an environmental perspective. Along with the LCA results of the construction phase, a comparison of the LCA results of seven operational phases is also presented in this study. The results showed that among all the inputs, the use of stainless steel in the construction phase caused the highest impact on environment, followed by electricity consumption in raw materials production. The impact of the construction phase on toxicity impact indicators was found to be significant compared to all operational phases. Among the seven operational phases of this study, the dissolved oxygen phase III, having a concentration of ∼4.5 mg/L, showed the highest impact on abiotic depletion, acidification, global warming, ozone layer depletion, human toxicity, fresh water eco-toxicity, marine aquatic eco-toxicity, terrestrial eco-toxicity, and photochemical oxidation. However, better effluent quality in this phase reduced the eutrophication load on environment.

  17. Building a Simulator with Life-like Realism for Teaching Abdominal Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, James M; O'Shea, Jennie M

    2018-01-29

    The objective of this communication is to provide an evolutionary description of an attempt to replicate the success of the Rampahl Cardiac Simulator using perfused abdominal organ blocks the way that the Rampahl Simulator uses ex vivo porcine hearts. This descriptive paper makes no attempt to prove the effectiveness of the described educational tool, but rather, outlines the successes and failures in development. The proven value of a perfused organ teaching tool, as the Rampahl Simulator, suggests that others can build upon the work described in this paper so that, in the future, perfused abdominal organs will be available to students of general surgery as a routine part of their pre-operative preparation. The Animal Resource Facility of the University of Utah, under the oversight of the University Institutional Animal Use and Care Committee (IACUC), provided the animals, operating suites and technical support. During each development phase, General Surgery Residents and Medical Students from all levels participated. In addition, operating room staff with an interest in either medical school or perfusion were invited to participate. The efforts described in this paper eventually resulted in a reliable teaching tool for abdominal procedures in that viability of the porcine abdominal organs for up to three hours after euthanasia was regularly achieved. General Surgery Teaching Programs of a size similar to the University of Utah may have access to the resources necessary to replicate this teaching tool in a cost-effective manner. However smaller teaching programs, such as those without a research facility, may not be able to adapt the procedures described in this paper. Copyright © 2018 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Five years in the life of an inertial system operating in orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R. A.; Denhard, W. G.

    1978-01-01

    The paper describes the in-orbit performance of the gyroscopes and strapdown attitude reference system for the OAO-C (Copernicus) satellite, launched on Aug. 21, 1972. In order to fulfill NASA requirements, the inertial system had to: (1) operate for at least one year in orbit without failure, (2) maintain an inertial reference with an uncertainty of 50 microradians or less for at least one hour, and (3) control attitude changes with an accuracy of at least 30 parts per million. During the orbit period, the inertial system has demonstrated a capability for maintaining an inertial reference that is significantly better than these performance goals.

  19. Thin film photovoltaic cells having increased durability and operating life and method for making same

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Allen M.; Masi, James V.; Hall, Robert B.

    1980-12-16

    A solar cell having a copper-bearing absorber is provided with a composite transparent encapsulating layer specifically designed to prevent oxidation of the copper sulfide. In a preferred embodiment, the absorber is a layer of copper sulfide and the composite layer comprises a thin layer of copper oxide formed on the copper sulfide and a layer of encapsulating glass formed on the oxide. It is anticipated that such devices, when exposed to normal operating conditions of various terrestrial applications, can be maintained at energy conversion efficiencies greater than one-half the original conversion efficiency for periods as long as thirty years.

  20. Health-related quality of life after transforaminal percutaneous endoscopic discectomy: An analysis according to the level of operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapetanakis, Stylianos; Charitoudis, Georgios; Thomaidis, Tryfon; Theodosiadis, Panagiotis; Papathanasiou, Jannis; Giatroudakis, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Many patients suffer from radiculopathy and low back pain due to lumbar disc hernia. Transforaminal percutaneous endoscopic discectomy (TPED) is a minimally invasive method that accesses the disc pathology through the intervertebral foramen. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) has been previously assessed for this method. However, a possible effect of the level of operation on the postoperative progress of HRQoL remains undefined. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the level of operation on HRQoL, following TPED. A total of 76 patients diagnosed with lumbar disc hernia were enrolled in the study. According to the level of operation, they were divided into three groups: Group A (21 patients) for L3-L4, Group B (40 patients) for L4-L5, and Group C (15 patients) for L5-S1 intervertebral level. All patients underwent TPED. Their HRQoL was evaluated by the short-form-36 (SF-36) health survey questionnaire before the operation and at 6 weeks, 3, 6, and 12 months postsurgery. The progress of SF-36 was analyzed in relation to the operated level. All aspects of SF-36 showed statistical significant improvement, at every given time interval ( P ≤ 0.05) in the total of patients and in each group separately. Group A had a significantly higher increase in physical functioning (PF) score at 3 and 12 months postsurgery ( P = 0.046 and P = 0.056, respectively). On the other hand, Group B had a significant lower increase in mental health (MH) score at 6 months ( P = 0.009) postoperatively. Our study concludes that the level of operation in patients who undergo TPED for lumbar disc herniation affects the HRQoL 1 year after surgery, with Group A having a significantly greater improvement of PF in comparison with Groups B and C.

  1. Changes in quality of life and perceptions of general health before and after operation of wind turbines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalali, Leila; Bigelow, Philip; McColl, Stephen; Majowicz, Shannon; Gohari, Mahmood; Waterhouse, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Ontario is Canada's provincial leader in wind energy, with over 4000 MW of installed capacity supplying approximately five percent of the province's electricity demand. Wind energy is now one of the fastest-growing sources of renewable power in Canada and many other countries. However, its possible negative impact on population health, as a new source of environmental noise, has raised concerns for people living in proximity to wind turbines (WTs). The aims of this study were to assess the effect of individual differences and annoyance on the self-reported general health and health-related quality of life (QOL) of nearby residents, using a pre- and post-exposure design. Prospective cohort data were collected before and after WT operations, from the individuals (n = 43) in Ontario, Canada. General health and QOL metrics were measured using standard scales, such as SF12, life satisfaction scales developed by Diener (SWLS) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS-SWL). The mean values for the Mental Component Score of SF12 (p = 0.002), SWLS (p < 0.001), and CCHS-SWL (p = 0.044) significantly worsened after WT operation for those participants who had a negative attitude to WTs, who voiced concerns about property devaluation, and/or who reported being visually or noise annoyed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Parameter estimation and long-term process simulation of a biogas reactor operated under trace elements limitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lübken, Manfred; Koch, Konrad; Gehring, Tito; Horn, Harald; Wichern, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Estimation of ADM1 parameter uncertainty by nonlinear, correlated parameter analysis. • Unbounded confidence regions were obtained for single hydrolysis rate constants. • ADM1 carbohydrates were divided into a slowly and readily degradable part. • Bioavailability of trace metals explained discrepancies between modeled and measured data. - Abstract: The Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) was modified to describe the long-term process stability of a two-stage agricultural biogas system operated for 494 days with a mono-substrate. The ADM1 model fraction for carbohydrates was divided into a slowly and readily degradable part. Significant different hydrolysis rate constants were found for proteins and single fractions of carbohydrates in batch experiments. Degradation of starch, xylan (hemicellulose), cellulose and zein (protein) were modeled with first order hydrolysis rate coefficients of 1.20 d −1 , 0.70 d −1 , 0.18 d −1 and 0.30 d −1 , respectively. While the hydrolysis rate coefficients found in batch experiments could be used for predicting continuous process data, the statistically calculated confidence regions (nonlinear parameter estimation) showed that the upper limits were unbounded. Single discrepancies between measured and modeled process data of the two-stage pilot system could be explained by the lack of bioavailability of trace elements. Addition of iron, as Fe(III)Cl 3 , allowed stable process conditions for an organic loading rate (OLR) up to 2.5 g VS L −1 d −1 . Additional supplement of trace elements was necessary for process operation at OLRs above 2.5 g VS L −1 d −1

  3. Estimating the snowfall limit in alpine and pre-alpine valleys: A local evaluation of operational approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fehlmann, Michael; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Rohrer, Mario; Schwarb, Manfred; Stoffel, Markus

    2018-05-01

    The snowfall limit has important implications for different hazardous processes associated with prolonged or heavy precipitation such as flash floods, rain-on-snow events and freezing precipitation. To increase preparedness and to reduce risk in such situations, early warning systems are frequently used to monitor and predict precipitation events at different temporal and spatial scales. However, in alpine and pre-alpine valleys, the estimation of the snowfall limit remains rather challenging. In this study, we characterize uncertainties related to snowfall limit for different lead times based on local measurements of a vertically pointing micro rain radar (MRR) and a disdrometer in the Zulg valley, Switzerland. Regarding the monitoring, we show that the interpolation of surface temperatures tends to overestimate the altitude of the snowfall limit and can thus lead to highly uncertain estimates of liquid precipitation in the catchment. This bias is much smaller in the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system, which integrates surface station and remotely sensed data as well as outputs of a numerical weather prediction model. To reduce systematic error, we perform a bias correction based on local MRR measurements and thereby demonstrate the added value of such measurements for the estimation of liquid precipitation in the catchment. Regarding the nowcasting, we show that the INCA system provides good estimates up to 6 h ahead and is thus considered promising for operational hydrological applications. Finally, we explore the medium-range forecasting of precipitation type, especially with respect to rain-on-snow events. We show for a selected case study that the probability for a certain precipitation type in an ensemble-based forecast is more persistent than the respective type in the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF IFS). In this case study, the

  4. ESTIMATION OF LONG-TERM INVESTMENT PROJECTS WITH ENERGY-EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS BASED ON LIFE CYCLE COSTS INDICATOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bazhenov Viktor Ivanovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The starting stage of the tender procedures in Russia with the participation of foreign suppliers dictates the feasibility of the developments for economical methods directed to comparison of technical solutions on the construction field. The article describes the example of practical Life Cycle Cost (LCC evaluations under respect of Present Value (PV determination. These create a possibility for investor to estimate long-term projects (indicated as 25 years as commercially profitable, taking into account inflation rate, interest rate, real discount rate (indicated as 5 %. For economic analysis air-blower station of WWTP was selected as a significant energy consumer. Technical variants for the comparison of blower types are: 1 - multistage without control, 2 - multistage with VFD control, 3 - single stage double vane control. The result of LCC estimation shows the last variant as most attractive or cost-effective for investments with economy of 17,2 % (variant 1 and 21,0 % (variant 2 under adopted duty conditions and evaluations of capital costs (Cic + Cin with annual expenditure related (Ce+Co+Cm. The adopted duty conditions include daily and seasonal fluctuations of air flow. This was the reason for the adopted energy consumption as, kW∙h: 2158 (variant 1,1743...2201 (variant 2, 1058...1951 (variant 3. The article refers to Europump guide tables in order to simplify sophisticated factors search (Cp /Cn, df, which can be useful for economical analyses in Russia. Example of evaluations connected with energy-efficient solutions is given, but this reference involves the use of materials for the cases with resource savings, such as all types of fuel. In conclusion follows the assent to use LCC indicator jointly with the method of determining discounted cash flows, that will satisfy the investor’s need for interest source due to technical and economical comparisons.

  5. Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nik G Wiman

    Full Text Available Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit. Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

  6. Power system for production, construction, life support and operations in space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sovie, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    As one looks to man's future in space it becomes obvious that unprecedented amounts of power are required for the exploration, colonization, and exploitation of space. Activities envisioned include interplanetary travel and LEO to GEO transport using electric propulsion, Earth and lunar observatories, advance space stations, free-flying manufacturing platforms, communications platforms, and eventually evolutionary lunar and Mars bases. These latter bases would start as camps with modest power requirements (kWes) and evolve to large bases as manufacturing, food production, and life support materials are developed from lunar raw materials. These latter activities require very robust power supplies (MWes). The advanced power system technologies being pursued by NASA to fulfill these future needs are described. Technologies discussed will include nuclear, photovoltaic, and solar dynamic space power systems, including energy storage, power conditioning, power transmission, and thermal management. The state-of-the-art and gains to be made by technology advancements will be discussed. Mission requirements for a variety of applications (LEO, GEO, lunar, and Martian) will be treated, and data for power systems ranging from a few kilowatts to megawatt power systems will be represented. In addition the space power technologies being initiated under NASA's new Civilian Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) and Space Leadership Planning Group Activities will be discussed

  7. A novel method for in-situ estimation of time constant for core temperature monitoring thermocouples of operating reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sylvia, J.I.; Chandar, S. Clement Ravi; Velusamy, K.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Core temperature sensor was mathematically modeled. • Ramp signal generated during reactor operating condition is used. • Procedure and methodology has been demonstrated by applying it to FBTR. • Same technique will be implemented for all fast reactors. - Abstract: Core temperature monitoring system is an important component of reactor protection system in the current generation fast reactors. In this system, multiple thermocouples are housed inside a thermowell of fuel subassemblies. Response time of the thermocouple assembly forms an important input for safety analysis of fast reactor and hence frequent calibration/time constant estimation is essential. In fast reactors the central fuel subassembly is provided with bare fast response thermocouples to detect under cooling events in reactor and take proper safety action. On the other hand, thermocouples in thermowell are mainly used for blockage detection in individual fuel subassemblies. The time constant of thermocouples in thermowell can drift due to creep, vibration and thermal fatigue of the thermowell assembly. A novel method for in-situ estimation of time constant is proposed. This method uses the Safety Control Rod Accelerated Mechanism (SCRAM) or lowering of control Rod (LOR) signals of the reactor along with response of the central subassembly thermocouples as reference data. Validation of the procedure has been demonstrated by applying it to FBTR

  8. Battery Internal Temperature Estimation for LiFePO4 Battery Based on Impedance Phase Shift under Operating Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangong Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An impedance-based temperature estimation method is investigated considering the electrochemical non-equilibrium with short-term relaxation time for facilitating the vehicular application. Generally, sufficient relaxation time is required for battery electrochemical equilibrium before the impedance measurement. A detailed experiment is performed to investigate the regularity of the battery impedance in short-term relaxation time after switch-off current excitation, which indicates that the impedance can be measured and also has systematical decrement with the relaxation time growth. Based on the discussion of impedance variation in electrochemical perspective, as well as the monotonic relationship between impedance phase shift and battery internal temperature in the electrochemical equilibrium state, an exponential equation that accounts for both measured phase shift and relaxation time is established to correct the measuring deviation caused by electrochemical non-equilibrium. Then, a multivariate linear equation coupled with ambient temperature is derived considering the temperature gradients between the active part and battery surface. Equations stated above are all identified with the embedded thermocouple experimentally. In conclusion, the temperature estimation method can be a valuable alternative for temperature monitoring during cell operating, and serve the functionality as an efficient implementation in battery thermal management system for electric vehicles (EVs and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs.

  9. Estimation of immersion dose to the Tin mining in the seashore of Bangka island from NPP operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nurokhim; Erwansyah Lubis

    2015-01-01

    The estimation of immersion dose to the Tin (Sn) mining in the seashore of Bangka island using concentrations factor methods was carried out. In the estimation, the source-term of effluent released to Pacific ocean from Diablo Canyon and San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operations was used. The results indicated that the Sn mining with immersion in the sea water of 2, 4 and 6 hours per day will receives maximum effective dose of 4.45 × 10 -3 %; 8.90 ×10 -3 % and 1.34 × 10 -2 % from dose constraint of 0.3 mSv per years. The probability of cancer happen for individual are 2.67 × 10 -8 ; 5.34 × 10 -8 and 8.01 × 10 -8 respectively if the working hours are 2, 4 dan 6 hours per days as long as 40 years (reactor lifetime) . These data give the information if there are 50 millions of Sn mining, the potential of miner will receive a fatal cancer is around 4 persons. According to the population of Sn mining is very small, so the probabilities of fatal cancer is unsignificant. (author)

  10. OMNIITOX - operational life-cycle impact assessment models and information tools for practitioners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molander, S; Lidholm, Peter; Schowanek, Diederik

    2004-01-01

    of the characterisation model(s) and limited input data on chemical properties, which often has resulted in the omission of toxicants from the LCIA, or at best focus on well characterised chemicals. The project addresses both problems and integrates models, as well as data, in an information system – the OMNIITOX IS....... There is also a need for clarification of the relations between the (environmental) risk assessments of toxicants and LCIA, in addition to investigating the feasibility of introducing LCA into European chemicals legislation, tasks that also were addressed in the project.......This article is the preamble to a set of articles describing initial results from an on-going European Commission funded, 5th Framework project called OMNIITOX, Operational Models aNd Information tools for Industrial applications of eco/TOXicological impact assessments. The different parts...

  11. Empirical Platform Data Analysis to Investigate how Heat Pumps Operate in Real-Life Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carmo, Carolina; Elmegaard, Brian; Nielsen, M. P.

    2015-01-01

    Heat pumps have been widely acknowledged, by academia and industry, as highly efficient thermal energy technologies, for space heating and domestic hot water production. However, there is a lack of information about real performance in residential single family houses with active participation...... of end-users. In this paper, an analysis based on data from 242 heat pump installations in Denmark gathered over a period up to 4 years (2010 until today) is performed. COP, operating temperatures and socio-demographic data are used as basis for comparing theoretical and actual performance. Six different...... heat pump configurations are considered depending on source (ground or air) and sink (radiators, floor heating and/or combined systems). This unique study intends to point out the benefits and limitations of such technologies in terms of energy efficiency and comfort delivery, as well as investigating...

  12. Life management and operational experience feedback - tools to enhance safety and reliability of the NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mach, P.

    1997-01-01

    Preparation has started of the Temelin power plant centralized equipment database. Principles of reliability centered maintenance are studied, and use of these activities will be made in the Plant Ageing Management Programme. The aims of the Programme are as follows: selection of important components subject to ageing, data collection, determination of dominant stressors, development, selection and validation of ageing evaluation methods, setup of experience feedback, determination of responsibilities, methodologies and strategy, elaboration of programme procedures and documentation, and maintenance of programme flexibility. Pilot studies of component ageing are under way: for the reactor pressure vessel, steam generator, pressurizer, piping, ECCS and cables. The organizational structure of the Operational Experience Feedback system is described, as are the responsibility of staff and sources of information. (M.D.)

  13. Evaluating life cycle costs of perpetual pavements in China using operational pavement management system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saud A. Sultan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Highway transportation is considered as vital factor in China’s economic growth; many high grade highways have been constructed in China during the last decades. The research and application of perpetual asphalt pavement (PP technology have been deployed in China since 2000. The semi-rigid pavement has been normally considered as typical pavement of high class highways in the design according to the Chinese experience. The objective of this research is to evaluate the performance of different Chinese perpetual pavements using operational pavement management system and to examine its suitability for use in the design and construction of more economical and durable pavements. It has been found that the use of thin asphalt layers over semi-rigid pavement foundation in PP structure will create more sustainable, economical, and durable PP structures in comparison with typical thick asphalt layers PP structures.

  14. Estimating cancer risk in relation to tritium exposure from routine operation of a nuclear-generating station in Pickering, Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanigaratne, S; Holowaty, E; Jiang, H; Norwood, T A; Pietrusiak, M A; Brown, P

    2013-09-01

    Evidence suggests that current levels of tritium emissions from CANDU reactors in Canada are not related to adverse health effects. However, these studies lack tritium-specific dose data and have small numbers of cases. The purpose of our study was to determine whether tritium emitted from a nuclear-generating station during routine operation is associated with risk of cancer in Pickering, Ontario. A retrospective cohort was formed through linkage of Pickering and north Oshawa residents (1985) to incident cancer cases (1985-2005). We examined all sites combined, leukemia, lung, thyroid and childhood cancers (6-19 years) for males and females as well as female breast cancer. Tritium estimates were based on an atmospheric dispersion model, incorporating characteristics of annual tritium emissions and meteorology. Tritium concentration estimates were assigned to each cohort member based on exact location of residence. Person-years analysis was used to determine whether observed cancer cases were higher than expected. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine whether tritium was associated with radiation-sensitive cancers in Pickering. Person-years analysis showed female childhood cancer cases to be significantly higher than expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-3.38). The issue of multiple comparisons is the most likely explanation for this finding. Cox models revealed that female lung cancer was significantly higher in Pickering versus north Oshawa (HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.23-4.46) and that tritium was not associated with increased risk. The improved methodology used in this study adds to our understanding of cancer risks associated with low-dose tritium exposure. Tritium estimates were not associated with increased risk of radiationsensitive cancers in Pickering.

  15. Automatic Synthetic Aperture Radar based oil spill detection and performance estimation via a semi-automatic operational service benchmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singha, Suman; Vespe, Michele; Trieschmann, Olaf

    2013-08-15

    Today the health of ocean is in danger as it was never before mainly due to man-made pollutions. Operational activities show regular occurrence of accidental and deliberate oil spill in European waters. Since the areas covered by oil spills are usually large, satellite remote sensing particularly Synthetic Aperture Radar represents an effective option for operational oil spill detection. This paper describes the development of a fully automated approach for oil spill detection from SAR. Total of 41 feature parameters extracted from each segmented dark spot for oil spill and 'look-alike' classification and ranked according to their importance. The classification algorithm is based on a two-stage processing that combines classification tree analysis and fuzzy logic. An initial evaluation of this methodology on a large dataset has been carried out and degree of agreement between results from proposed algorithm and human analyst was estimated between 85% and 93% respectively for ENVISAT and RADARSAT. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Investigation into the effects of operating conditions and design parameters on the creep life of high pressure turbine blades in a stationary gas turbine engine

    OpenAIRE

    Eshati, Samir; Abu, Abdullahi; Laskaridis, Panagiotis; Haslam, Anthony

    2011-01-01

    A physics–based model is used to investigate the relationship between operating conditions and design parameters on the creep life of a stationary gas turbine high pressure turbine (HPT) blade. A performance model is used to size the blade and to determine its stresses. The effects of radial temperature distortion, turbine inlet temperature, ambient temperature and compressor degradation on creep life are then examined. The results show variations in creep life and failure locat...

  17. Climate-based policies may increase life-cycle social costs of vehicle fleet operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emery, Isaac; Mbonimpa, Eric; Thal, Alfred E.

    2017-01-01

    Sustainability guidelines and regulations in the United States often focus exclusively on carbon or petroleum reductions. Though some of these policies have resulted in substantial progress toward their goals, the effects of these efforts on other social and environmental externalities are often ignored. In this study, we examine the life-cycle air pollutant emissions for alternative fuel and vehicle purchase scenarios at a military installation near a typical urban area in the United States (U.S.). We find that scenarios which minimize petroleum use or greenhouse gas emissions do not concomitantly minimize criteria air pollutant emissions. We also employ social cost methodologies to quantify economic externalities due to climate change and health-related air pollutant impacts. Accounting for the social costs of climate change and air pollution from vehicle use reveals that criteria air pollutants may have a greater total impact than greenhouse gas emissions in locations similar to the urban area examined in this study. Use of first-generation biofuels, particularly corn grain ethanol, may reduce net petroleum use at the cost of increased total health impacts. More comprehensive policies may be needed to ensure that sustainability policies result in a net benefit to society. - Highlights: • U.S. energy and transportation policies focus on petroleum use and greenhouse gases. • Use of corn ethanol at a military base in Ohio, U.S. increases total social costs vs. gasoline. • Renewable electricity provides cost-effective climate and health protection. • DOD strategy to improve energy security may damage Americans' health. • More inclusive policies needed to protect health and climate.

  18. Need for consent of a law extending the operating life of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degenhart, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    The article deals with the question whether a law extending nuclear power plant life beyond the residual periods of time laid down in the law of April 22, 2002 requires consent of the Federal Council. The Atomic Energy Act needed the consent of the Federal Council pursuant to Article 87c, Basic Law, as its Section 24 determines that central functions of licensing and supervision be exercised by the federal states on behalf of the Federal Government. This has not changed after the current version of the norm. Increasing the residual quotas of electricity by amending Annex 3 of Sec.7, Para.1a, Atomic Energy Act, per se does not require consent. This is a substantive provision. Sec.24, Atomic Energy Act, does not need to be amended. The Federal Council, which consented to the original legislation, thus does not bear continued responsibility for the law. Every law must be treated as a separate entity in terms of legislative method. The Federal Council, with its first consent to the piece of legislation, ''approves'' this systemic shift. Renewed consent is required only in case of another systemic shift. This is the case when the provision about administrative responsibility takes on a very different meaning and impact no longer supported by the earlier consent. According to decisions by the Federal Constitutional Court, this expressly applies also to administration by commission. What is required is a comparison of administrative duties before and after entry into force of the amending law; mere quantitative shifts of administrative burdens do not cause a systemic shift. Whether the inclusion of backfitting obligations would be associated with regulations in administrative procedures has not been decided. In its ruling of May 4, 2010, the Federal Constitutional Court confirms that these do not require consent within the framework of Art.85 Para.1, Basic Law. (orig.)

  19. Enhancement of the life of refractories through the operational experience of plasma torch melter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Young Pyo [Technology Institute, Korea Radioactive waste Agency (KORAD), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Jaang Young [Chungnam National University, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    The properties of wastes for melting need to be considered to minimize the maintenance of refractory and to discharge the molten slags smoothly from a plasma torch melter. When the nonflammable wastes from nuclear facilities such as concrete debris, glass, sand, etc., are melted, they become acid slags with low basicity since the chemical composition has much more acid oxides than basic oxides. A molten slag does not have good characteristics of discharge and is mainly responsible for the refractory erosion due to its low liquidity. In case of a stationary plasma torch melter with a slant tapping port on the wall, a fixed amount of molten slags remains inside of tapping hole as well as the melter inside after tapping out. Nonmetallic slags keep the temperature higher than melting point of metal because metallic slags located on the bottom of melter by specific gravity difference are simultaneously melted when dual mode plasma torch operates in transferred mode. In order to minimize the refractory erosion, the compatible refractories are selected considering the temperature inside the melter and the melting behavior of slags whether to contact or noncontact with molten slags. An acidic refractory shall not be installed in adjacent to a basic refractory for the resistibility against corrosion.

  20. Operating and life-cycle costs for uranium-contaminated soil treatment technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douthat, D.M.; Armstrong, A.Q.

    1995-09-01

    The development of a nuclear industry in the US required mining, milling, and fabricating a large variety of uranium products. One of these products was purified uranium metal which was used in the Savannah River and Hanford Site reactors. Most of this feed material was produced at the US Department of Energy (DOE) facility formerly called the Feed Materials Production Center at Fernald, Ohio. During operation of this facility, soils became contaminated with uranium from a variety of sources. To avoid disposal of these soils in low-level radioactive waste burial sites, increasing emphasis has been placed on the remediating soils contaminated with uranium and other radionuclides. To address remediation and management of uranium-contaminated soils at sites owned by DOE, the DOE Office of Technology Development (OTD) evaluates and compares the versatility, efficiency, and economics of various technologies that may be combined into systems designed to characterize and remediate uranium-contaminated soils. Each technology must be able to (1) characterize the uranium in soil, (2) decontaminate or remove uranium from soil, (3) treat or dispose of resulting waste streams, (4) meet necessary state and federal regulations, and (5) meet performance assessment objectives. The role of the performance assessment objectives is to provide the information necessary to conduct evaluations of the technologies. These performance assessments provide the basis for selecting the optimum system for remediation of large areas contaminated with uranium. One of the performance assessment tasks is to address the economics of full-scale implementation of soil treatment technologies. The cost of treating contaminated soil is one of the criteria used in the decision-making process for selecting remedial alternatives