WorldWideScience

Sample records for online epidemic intelligence

  1. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  2. Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

    2017-10-01

    Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluating and Improving Online Intelligence Courses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Alexandra Luce

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Civilian, military and government institutions offer a wide range of courses on intelligence and are increasingly doing so online. While evaluation and improvement are critical to ensuring quality training and education, there is little research about how to evaluate and improve online intelligence courses. Based on the author’s experience developing and teaching such courses, this article offers four suggestions to those involved in online intelligence training and education: (1 conduct a key assumptions check; (2 ensure the course presentation embodies the principles of intelligence communication; (3 encourage creative freedom; and (4 build in mechanisms for feedback throughout the course.

  4. Online Sources of Competitive Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagers, Robert

    1986-01-01

    Presents an approach to using online sources of information for competitor intelligence (i.e., monitoring industry and tracking activities of competitors); identifies principal sources; and suggests some ways of making use of online databases. Types and sources of information and sources and database charts are appended. Eight references are…

  5. Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

    2011-12-01

    Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

  6. Do Students Experience "Social Intelligence," Laughter, and Other Emotions Online?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Katrina A.; Jones, Stephanie J.

    2012-01-01

    Are online activities devoid of emotion and social intelligence? Graduate students in online and blended programs at Texas Tech University and the University of Memphis were surveyed about how often they laughed, felt other emotions, and expressed social intelligence. Laughter, chuckling, and smiling occurred "sometimes" as did other…

  7. Multiple Intelligences in Online, Hybrid, and Traditional Business Statistics Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Salvador; Patron, Hilde

    2012-01-01

    According to Howard Gardner, Professor of Cognition and Education at Harvard University, intelligence of humans cannot be measured with a single factor such as the IQ level. Instead, he and others have suggested that humans have different types of intelligence. This paper examines whether students registered in online or mostly online courses have…

  8. Competitive Intelligence: Finding the Clues Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combs, Richard; Moorhead, John

    1990-01-01

    Defines and discusses competitive intelligence for business decision making and suggests the use of online databases to start looking for relevant information. The best databases to use are described, designing the search strategy is explained, reviewing and editing results are discussed, and the presentation of results is considered. (LRW)

  9. Evaluation of Epidemic Intelligence Systems Integrated in the Early Alerting and Reporting Project for the Detection of A/H5N1 Influenza Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P.; Hartley, David M.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Linge, Jens P.; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S.; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal; on behalf of the Early Alerting, Reporting Project of the Global Health Security Initiative

    2013-01-01

    The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7–13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users. PMID:23472077

  10. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Barboza

    Full Text Available The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8. This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  11. Evaluation of epidemic intelligence systems integrated in the early alerting and reporting project for the detection of A/H5N1 influenza events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboza, Philippe; Vaillant, Laetitia; Mawudeku, Abla; Nelson, Noele P; Hartley, David M; Madoff, Lawrence C; Linge, Jens P; Collier, Nigel; Brownstein, John S; Yangarber, Roman; Astagneau, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    The objective of Web-based expert epidemic intelligence systems is to detect health threats. The Global Health Security Initiative (GHSI) Early Alerting and Reporting (EAR) project was launched to assess the feasibility and opportunity for pooling epidemic intelligence data from seven expert systems. EAR participants completed a qualitative survey to document epidemic intelligence strategies and to assess perceptions regarding the systems performance. Timeliness and sensitivity were rated highly illustrating the value of the systems for epidemic intelligence. Weaknesses identified included representativeness, completeness and flexibility. These findings were corroborated by the quantitative analysis performed on signals potentially related to influenza A/H5N1 events occurring in March 2010. For the six systems for which this information was available, the detection rate ranged from 31% to 38%, and increased to 72% when considering the virtual combined system. The effective positive predictive values ranged from 3% to 24% and F1-scores ranged from 6% to 27%. System sensitivity ranged from 38% to 72%. An average difference of 23% was observed between the sensitivities calculated for human cases and epizootics, underlining the difficulties in developing an efficient algorithm for a single pathology. However, the sensitivity increased to 93% when the virtual combined system was considered, clearly illustrating complementarities between individual systems. The average delay between the detection of A/H5N1 events by the systems and their official reporting by WHO or OIE was 10.2 days (95% CI: 6.7-13.8). This work illustrates the diversity in implemented epidemic intelligence activities, differences in system's designs, and the potential added values and opportunities for synergy between systems, between users and between systems and users.

  12. Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

    2004-10-01

    As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

  13. Automated vocabulary discovery for geo-parsing online epidemic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Mikaela; Freifeld, Clark C; Brownstein, John S

    2009-11-24

    Automated surveillance of the Internet provides a timely and sensitive method for alerting on global emerging infectious disease threats. HealthMap is part of a new generation of online systems designed to monitor and visualize, on a real-time basis, disease outbreak alerts as reported by online news media and public health sources. HealthMap is of specific interest for national and international public health organizations and international travelers. A particular task that makes such a surveillance useful is the automated discovery of the geographic references contained in the retrieved outbreak alerts. This task is sometimes referred to as "geo-parsing". A typical approach to geo-parsing would demand an expensive training corpus of alerts manually tagged by a human. Given that human readers perform this kind of task by using both their lexical and contextual knowledge, we developed an approach which relies on a relatively small expert-built gazetteer, thus limiting the need of human input, but focuses on learning the context in which geographic references appear. We show in a set of experiments, that this approach exhibits a substantial capacity to discover geographic locations outside of its initial lexicon. The results of this analysis provide a framework for future automated global surveillance efforts that reduce manual input and improve timeliness of reporting.

  14. Telediagnostic Assessment of Intelligibility in Dysarthria: A Pilot Investigation of MVP-Online

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Wolfram; Zierdt, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    Background: A most important index of functional impairment in dysarthria is "intelligibility". The "Munich Intelligibility Profile" (MVP) is a computer-based method for the assessment of the intelligibility of dysarthric patients. A multi-user online version of MVP is now available. Aims: To describe the structure of…

  15. Automated vocabulary discovery for geo-parsing online epidemic intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freifeld Clark C

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Automated surveillance of the Internet provides a timely and sensitive method for alerting on global emerging infectious disease threats. HealthMap is part of a new generation of online systems designed to monitor and visualize, on a real-time basis, disease outbreak alerts as reported by online news media and public health sources. HealthMap is of specific interest for national and international public health organizations and international travelers. A particular task that makes such a surveillance useful is the automated discovery of the geographic references contained in the retrieved outbreak alerts. This task is sometimes referred to as "geo-parsing". A typical approach to geo-parsing would demand an expensive training corpus of alerts manually tagged by a human. Results Given that human readers perform this kind of task by using both their lexical and contextual knowledge, we developed an approach which relies on a relatively small expert-built gazetteer, thus limiting the need of human input, but focuses on learning the context in which geographic references appear. We show in a set of experiments, that this approach exhibits a substantial capacity to discover geographic locations outside of its initial lexicon. Conclusion The results of this analysis provide a framework for future automated global surveillance efforts that reduce manual input and improve timeliness of reporting.

  16. MOIDSS?- Mobile Online Intelligent Decision Support System, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — GRID has had a successfully completed Phase I 'Mobile Online Intelligent Decision Support System' (MOIDSS). The system developed into a total solution that supports...

  17. An Intelligent Sensor for the Ultra-High-Frequency Partial Discharge Online Monitoring of Power Transformers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ultra-high-frequency (UHF partial discharge (PD online monitoring is an effective way to inspect potential faults and insulation defects in power transformers. The construction of UHF PD online monitoring system is a challenge because of the high-frequency and wide-frequency band of the UHF PD signal. This paper presents a novel, intelligent sensor for UHF PD online monitoring based on a new method, namely a level scanning method. The intelligent sensor can directly acquire the statistical characteristic quantities and is characterized by low cost, few data to output and transmit, Ethernet functionality, and small size for easy installation. The prototype of an intelligent sensor was made. Actual UHF PD experiments with three typical artificial defect models of power transformers were carried out in a laboratory, and the waveform recording method and intelligent sensor proposed were simultaneously used for UHF PD measurement for comparison. The results show that the proposed intelligent sensor is qualified for the UHF PD online monitoring of power transformers. Additionally, three methods to improve the performance of intelligent sensors were proposed according to the principle of the level scanning method.

  18. Image intelligence online consulting: A flexible and remote access to strategic information applied to verification of declaration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chassy, A.F. de; Denizot, L.

    2001-01-01

    Commercial satellite imagery is giving International Institutions specialized Information Departments access to a great source of valuable intelligence. High resolution and multiple sensors have also led to a growing complexity of interpretation that calls for a greater need of consulting, verification and training in the field in order to make it eligible as an operational source of verification. Responding to this need, Fleximage is extending its Image intelligence (IMINT) training program to include a fully operational and flexible online consulting and training program. Image Intelligence (IMINT) Online Program, a new approach to acquiring IMINT expertise, supported by Internet technologies, and managed by a professional team of experts and technical staff. Fleximage has developed a virtual learning environment on the Internet for acquiring IMINT expertise. Called the IMINT Online Program, this dynamic learning environment provides complete flexibility and personalization of the process for acquiring expertise. The IMINT online program includes two services: Online Consulting and Online Training. The Online Consulting service is designed for the technical staff of an organization who are already operational in the field of image intelligence. Online Consulting enables these staff members to acquire pertinent expertise online that can be directly applied to their professional activity, such as IAEA verification tasks. The Online Training service is designed for the technical staff of an organization who are relatively new to the field of image intelligence. These staff members need to build expertise within a formal training program. Online Training is a flexible and structured program for acquiring IMINT expertise online

  19. Enhancing reliable online transaction with intelligent rule-based ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Enhancing reliable online transaction with intelligent rule-based fraud detection technique. ... These are with a bid to reducing amongst other things the cost of production and also dissuade the poor handling of Nigeria currency. The CBN pronouncement has necessitated the upsurge in transactions completed with credit ...

  20. Examining Perception of Emotional Intelligence in Online Professors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Diane

    2018-01-01

    The perceptions of the knowledge and value online instructors place on emotional intelligence (EI), warrants scholarly attention. Thirty-eight adjunct faculty members who were recruited through LinkedIn completed an instrument developed for this purpose. Instructors ranked their perception of the importance of the factors associated with EI…

  1. Online Services Management Support for an Intelligent Locality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena BĂTĂGAN

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available As the number of habitants of large cities is expanding, put greater pressure on city infrastructure delivering vital services, such as health, education, public safety and transport. These efforts are added to changing public demands for better information, better education, environmental programs, a more open government, lower maintenance costs and other housing options for older people. Therefore, to achieve these goals, it must take into account the quality of all services, but especially the quality of online services based on the use of modern information and communication technologies.The management of service quality on-line offers a performance evaluation and comparative analysis of indicators. He also works as a decision support to improve the quality of online services and increasing customer satisfaction, essential elements in an intelligent city.

  2. Generalized anxiety disorder and online intelligence: a phenomenological account of why worrying is unhelpful.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meynen, Gerben

    2011-05-03

    Worrying is the central feature of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Many people worry from time to time, but in GAD the worrying is prolonged and difficult to control. Worrying is a specific way of coping with perceived threats and feared situations. Meanwhile, it is not considered to be a helpful coping strategy, and the phenomenological account developed in this paper aims to show why. It builds on several phenomenological notions and in particular on Michael Wheeler's application of these notions to artificial intelligence and the cognitive sciences. Wheeler emphasizes the value of 'online intelligence' as contrasted to 'offline intelligence'. I discuss and apply these concepts with respect to worrying as it occurs in GAD, suggesting that GAD patients overrate the value of detached contemplation (offline intelligence), while underrating their embodied-embedded adaptive skills (online intelligence). I argue that this phenomenological account does not only help explaining why worrying is used as a coping strategy, but also why cognitive behavioral therapy is successful in treating GAD.

  3. Intelligent Cloud Learning Model for Online Overseas Chinese Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yidong Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available With the development of Chinese economy, oversea Chinese education has been paid more and more attention. However, the overseas Chinese education resource is relatively lack because of historical reasons, which hindered further development . How to better share the Chinese education resources and provide intelligent personalized information service for overseas student is a key problem to be solved. In recent years, the rise of cloud computing provides us an opportunity to realize intelligent learning mode. Cloud computing offers some advantages by allowing users to use infrastructure, platforms and software . In this paper we proposed an intelligent cloud learning model based on cloud computing. The learning model can utilize network resources sufficiently to implement resource sharing according to the personal needs of students, and provide a good practicability for online overseas Chinese education.

  4. Dimensions of Emotional Intelligence and Online Gaming Addiction in Adolescence: The Indirect Effects of Two Facets of Perceived Stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Dexin; Hu, Jianping; Zhen, Shuangju; Yu, Chengfu; Li, Bin; Chang, Xi; Zhang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This study tested a parallel two-mediator model in which the relationship between dimensions of emotional intelligence and online gaming addiction are mediated by perceived helplessness and perceived self-efficacy, respectively. The sample included 931 male adolescents (mean age = 16.18 years, SD = 0.95) from southern China. Data on emotional intelligence (four dimensions, including self-management of emotion, social skills, empathy and utilization of emotions), perceived stress (two facets, including perceived self-efficacy and perceived helplessness) and online gaming addiction were collected, and bootstrap methods were used to test this parallel two-mediator model. Our findings revealed that perceived self-efficacy mediated the relationship between three dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management, social skills, and empathy) and online gaming addiction, and perceived helplessness mediated the relationship between two dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management and emotion utilization) and online gaming addiction. These findings underscore the importance of separating the four dimensions of emotional intelligence and two facets of perceived stress to understand the complex relationship between these factors and online gaming addiction.

  5. Dimensions of Emotional Intelligence and Online Gaming Addiction in Adolescence: The Indirect Effects of Two Facets of Perceived Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dexin Che

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study tested a parallel two-mediator model in which the relationship between dimensions of emotional intelligence and online gaming addiction are mediated by perceived helplessness and perceived self-efficacy, respectively. The sample included 931 male adolescents (mean age = 16.18 years, SD = 0.95 from southern China. Data on emotional intelligence (four dimensions, including self-management of emotion, social skills, empathy and utilization of emotions, perceived stress (two facets, including perceived self-efficacy and perceived helplessness and online gaming addiction were collected, and bootstrap methods were used to test this parallel two-mediator model. Our findings revealed that perceived self-efficacy mediated the relationship between three dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management, social skills, and empathy and online gaming addiction, and perceived helplessness mediated the relationship between two dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management and emotion utilization and online gaming addiction. These findings underscore the importance of separating the four dimensions of emotional intelligence and two facets of perceived stress to understand the complex relationship between these factors and online gaming addiction.

  6. Dimensions of Emotional Intelligence and Online Gaming Addiction in Adolescence: The Indirect Effects of Two Facets of Perceived Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Dexin; Hu, Jianping; Zhen, Shuangju; Yu, Chengfu; Li, Bin; Chang, Xi; Zhang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This study tested a parallel two-mediator model in which the relationship between dimensions of emotional intelligence and online gaming addiction are mediated by perceived helplessness and perceived self-efficacy, respectively. The sample included 931 male adolescents (mean age = 16.18 years, SD = 0.95) from southern China. Data on emotional intelligence (four dimensions, including self-management of emotion, social skills, empathy and utilization of emotions), perceived stress (two facets, including perceived self-efficacy and perceived helplessness) and online gaming addiction were collected, and bootstrap methods were used to test this parallel two-mediator model. Our findings revealed that perceived self-efficacy mediated the relationship between three dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management, social skills, and empathy) and online gaming addiction, and perceived helplessness mediated the relationship between two dimensions of emotional intelligence (i.e., self-management and emotion utilization) and online gaming addiction. These findings underscore the importance of separating the four dimensions of emotional intelligence and two facets of perceived stress to understand the complex relationship between these factors and online gaming addiction. PMID:28751876

  7. Image intelligence online consulting: A flexible and remote access to strategic information applied to verification of declaration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chassy, A.F. de; Denizot, L.

    2001-01-01

    Commercial satellite imagery is giving International Institutions specialized Information Departments access to a great source of valuable intelligence. High resolution and multiple sensors have also led to a growing complexity of interpretation that calls for a greater need of consulting, verification and training in the field in order to make it eligible as an operational source of verification. Responding to this need, Fleximage is extending its Image Intelligence (IMINT) training program to include a fully operational and flexible online consulting and training program. Image Intelligence (IMINT) Online Program, a new approach to acquiring IMINT expertise, supported by Internet technologies, and managed by a professional team of experts and technical staff. Fleximage has developed a virtual learning environment on the Internet for acquiring IMINT expertise. Called the IMINT Online Program, this dynamic learning environment provides complete flexibility and personalization of the process for acquiring expertise. The IMINT online program includes two services: Online Consulting and Online Training. The Online Consulting service is designed for the technical staff of an organization who are already operational in the field of image intelligence. Online Consulting enables these staff members to acquire pertinent expertise online that can be directly applied to their professional activity, such as IAEA verification tasks. The IMINT virtual Consulting and Training services indicated above are made possible thanks to the latest in Internet-based technologies including: multimedia CD-ROM, Internet technologies, rich media content (Audio, Video and Flash), application sharing, platform Maintenance Tools, secured connections and authentication, knowledge database technologies. IMINT Online Program operates owing to: specialized experts in fields relating to IMINT. These experts carry out the tasks of consultants, coaches, occasional speakers, and course content designers

  8. Relationship between Students' Emotional Intelligence, Social Bond, and Interactions in Online Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Heeyoung; Johnson, Scott D.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to investigate the relationship between students' emotional intelligence, social bond, and their interactions in an online learning environment. The research setting in this study was a 100% online master's degree program within a university located in the Midwest of the United States. Eighty-four students participated…

  9. Online Behavior Analysis-Based Student Profile for Intelligent E-Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Kun; Zhang, Yiying; He, Yeshen; Zhou, Yilin; Tan, Wei; Li, Xiaoxia

    2017-01-01

    With the development of mobile platform, such as smart cellphone and pad, the E-Learning model has been rapidly developed. However, due to the low completion rate for E-Learning platform, it is very necessary to analyze the behavior characteristics of online learners to intelligently adjust online education strategy and enhance the quality of learning. In this paper, we analyzed the relation indicators of E-Learning to build the student profile and gave countermeasures. Adopting the similarit...

  10. Generalized anxiety disorder and online intelligence: A phenomenological account of why worrying is unhelpful

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meynen Gerben

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Worrying is the central feature of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD. Many people worry from time to time, but in GAD the worrying is prolonged and difficult to control. Worrying is a specific way of coping with perceived threats and feared situations. Meanwhile, it is not considered to be a helpful coping strategy, and the phenomenological account developed in this paper aims to show why. It builds on several phenomenological notions and in particular on Michael Wheeler's application of these notions to artificial intelligence and the cognitive sciences. Wheeler emphasizes the value of 'online intelligence' as contrasted to 'offline intelligence'. I discuss and apply these concepts with respect to worrying as it occurs in GAD, suggesting that GAD patients overrate the value of detached contemplation (offline intelligence, while underrating their embodied-embedded adaptive skills (online intelligence. I argue that this phenomenological account does not only help explaining why worrying is used as a coping strategy, but also why cognitive behavioral therapy is successful in treating GAD.

  11. Analysis of Students' Online Learning Readiness Based on Their Emotional Intelligence Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engin, Melih

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present study is to determine whether there is a significant relationship between the students' readiness in online learning and their emotional intelligence levels. Correlational research method was used in the study. Online Learning Readiness Scale which was developed by Hung et al. (2010) has been used and Trait Emotional…

  12. Intelligent data analysis for e-learning enhancing security and trustworthiness in online learning systems

    CERN Document Server

    Miguel, Jorge; Xhafa, Fatos

    2016-01-01

    Intelligent Data Analysis for e-Learning: Enhancing Security and Trustworthiness in Online Learning Systems addresses information security within e-Learning based on trustworthiness assessment and prediction. Over the past decade, many learning management systems have appeared in the education market. Security in these systems is essential for protecting against unfair and dishonest conduct-most notably cheating-however, e-Learning services are often designed and implemented without considering security requirements. This book provides functional approaches of trustworthiness analysis, modeling, assessment, and prediction for stronger security and support in online learning, highlighting the security deficiencies found in most online collaborative learning systems. The book explores trustworthiness methodologies based on collective intelligence than can overcome these deficiencies. It examines trustworthiness analysis that utilizes the large amounts of data-learning activities generate. In addition, as proc...

  13. Online Behavior Analysis-Based Student Profile for Intelligent E-Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Liang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of mobile platform, such as smart cellphone and pad, the E-Learning model has been rapidly developed. However, due to the low completion rate for E-Learning platform, it is very necessary to analyze the behavior characteristics of online learners to intelligently adjust online education strategy and enhance the quality of learning. In this paper, we analyzed the relation indicators of E-Learning to build the student profile and gave countermeasures. Adopting the similarity computation and Jaccard coefficient algorithm, we designed a system model to clean and dig into the educational data and also the students’ learning attitude and the duration of learning behavior to establish student profile. According to the E-Learning resources and learner behaviors, we also present the intelligent guide model to guide both E-Learning platform and learners to improve learning things. The study on student profile can help the E-Learning platform to meet and guide the students’ learning behavior deeply and also to provide personalized learning situation and promote the optimization of the E-Learning.

  14. Evaluation of Intelligent Grouping Based on Learners' Collaboration Competence Level in Online Collaborative Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muuro, Maina Elizaphan; Oboko, Robert; Wagacha, Waiganjo Peter

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we explore the impact of an intelligent grouping algorithm based on learners' collaborative competency when compared with (a) instructor based Grade Point Average (GPA) method level and (b) random method, on group outcomes and group collaboration problems in an online collaborative learning environment. An intelligent grouping…

  15. Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Frederick; Griffith, Amanda; Cottrell, Allin; Wong, Yue-Ling

    2013-01-01

    We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time. PMID:23326360

  16. A Mindful Approach to Teaching Emotional Intelligence to Undergraduate Students Online and in Person

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotler, Jami L.; DiTursi, Dan; Goldstein, Ira; Yates, Jeff; DelBelso, Deb

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we examine whether emotional intelligence (EI) can be taught online and, if so, what key variables influence the successful implementation of this online learning model. Using a 3 x 2 factorial quasi-experimental design, this mixed-methods study found that a team-based learning environment using a blended teaching approach, supported…

  17. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  18. The development of a massive open online course during the 2014-15 Ebola virus disease epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Dabney P; Luffy, Samantha M; Parisi, Stephanie; Del Rio, Carlos

    2017-09-01

    Timely training was urgently needed at the onset of the 2014 Ebola virus disease epidemic. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have grown in popularity, though little is known about their utility in time-sensitive situations, including infectious disease outbreaks. We created the first English language massive open online course on Ebola virus disease. Designed by a team representing various units of Emory University and six partner institutions, the six module course was aimed at a global general audience but also relevant for health care professionals. Over 7,000 learners from 170 countries participated in the initial course offering. More than a third of learners were from emerging economies, including seven percent from Africa, and another 13% from countries outside the United States who received individuals requiring treatment for Ebola virus disease. Creating and producing the first English language MOOC on EVD in a short time period required effective collaboration and strong coordination between subject matter and course development experts from Emory. Through these collaborative efforts, the development team was able to provide urgently needed training and educational materials while the epidemic of EVD continued to radiate through West Africa. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. iHelp: an intelligent online helpdesk system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dingding; Li, Tao; Zhu, Shenghuo; Gong, Yihong

    2011-02-01

    Due to the importance of high-quality customer service, many companies use intelligent helpdesk systems (e.g., case-based systems) to improve customer service quality. However, these systems face two challenges: 1) Case retrieval measures: most case-based systems use traditional keyword-matching-based ranking schemes for case retrieval and have difficulty to capture the semantic meanings of cases and 2) result representation: most case-based systems return a list of past cases ranked by their relevance to a new request, and customers have to go through the list and examine the cases one by one to identify their desired cases. To address these challenges, we develop iHelp, an intelligent online helpdesk system, to automatically find problem-solution patterns from the past customer-representative interactions. When a new customer request arrives, iHelp searches and ranks the past cases based on their semantic relevance to the request, groups the relevant cases into different clusters using a mixture language model and symmetric matrix factorization, and summarizes each case cluster to generate recommended solutions. Case and user studies have been conducted to show the full functionality and the effectiveness of iHelp.

  20. Virtual plagues and real-world pandemics: reflecting on the potential for online computer role-playing games to inform real world epidemic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oultram, Stuart

    2013-12-01

    In the wake of the Corrupted Blood incident, which afflicted the massively multiplayer online computer role-playing game World of Warcraft in 2005, it has been suggested that both, the incident itself and massively multiplayer online computer role-playing games in general, can be utilised to inform and assist real-world epidemic and public health research. In this paper, I engage critically with these claims.

  1. Can Artificial Intelligence and Online Dispute Resolution enhance efficiency and effectiveness in Courts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Zeleznikow

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The growing rise in the number of self-represented litigants has negative implications for both the court system and access to justice. The expanding use of Artificial Intelligence and the World Wide Web has led to the development and use of Online Dispute Resolution. In this article we investigate a number of systems in Australian Family Law that enhance Alternative Dispute Resolution and Access to Justice. We discuss how a hybrid system that incorporates advice about BATNAs and potential trade-offs as well as allowing online communication can enhance access to justice.

  2. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  3. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  4. Business Intelligence from User Generated Content: Online Opinion Formation in Purchasing Decisions in High-Tech Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Setiya , Karan; Ubacht , Jolien; Cunningham , Scott; Oruç , Sertaç

    2016-01-01

    Part 6: Data Acquisition, Management and Analytics; International audience; User Generated Content (UGC) requires new business intelligence methods to understand the influence of online opinion formation on customer purchasing decisions. We developed a conceptual model for deriving business intelligence from tweets, based on the Classical Model of Consensus Formation and the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We applied the model to the dynamic high-tech smartphone market by means of three case stu...

  5. Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Online Social Therapy for Youth Mental Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D'Alfonso

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Benefits from mental health early interventions may not be sustained over time, and longer-term intervention programs may be required to maintain early clinical gains. However, due to the high intensity of face-to-face early intervention treatments, this may not be feasible. Adjunctive internet-based interventions specifically designed for youth may provide a cost-effective and engaging alternative to prevent loss of intervention benefits. However, until now online interventions have relied on human moderators to deliver therapeutic content. More sophisticated models responsive to user data are critical to inform tailored online therapy. Thus, integration of user experience with a sophisticated and cutting-edge technology to deliver content is necessary to redefine online interventions in youth mental health. This paper discusses the development of the moderated online social therapy (MOST web application, which provides an interactive social media-based platform for recovery in mental health. We provide an overview of the system's main features and discus our current work regarding the incorporation of advanced computational and artificial intelligence methods to enhance user engagement and improve the discovery and delivery of therapy content.Methods: Our case study is the ongoing Horyzons site (5-year randomized controlled trial for youth recovering from early psychosis, which is powered by MOST. We outline the motivation underlying the project and the web application's foundational features and interface. We discuss system innovations, including the incorporation of pertinent usage patterns as well as identifying certain limitations of the system. This leads to our current motivations and focus on using computational and artificial intelligence methods to enhance user engagement, and to further improve the system with novel mechanisms for the delivery of therapy content to users. In particular, we cover our usage of natural

  6. Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Online Social Therapy for Youth Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alfonso, Simon; Santesteban-Echarri, Olga; Rice, Simon; Wadley, Greg; Lederman, Reeva; Miles, Christopher; Gleeson, John; Alvarez-Jimenez, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Benefits from mental health early interventions may not be sustained over time, and longer-term intervention programs may be required to maintain early clinical gains. However, due to the high intensity of face-to-face early intervention treatments, this may not be feasible. Adjunctive internet-based interventions specifically designed for youth may provide a cost-effective and engaging alternative to prevent loss of intervention benefits. However, until now online interventions have relied on human moderators to deliver therapeutic content. More sophisticated models responsive to user data are critical to inform tailored online therapy. Thus, integration of user experience with a sophisticated and cutting-edge technology to deliver content is necessary to redefine online interventions in youth mental health. This paper discusses the development of the moderated online social therapy (MOST) web application, which provides an interactive social media-based platform for recovery in mental health. We provide an overview of the system's main features and discus our current work regarding the incorporation of advanced computational and artificial intelligence methods to enhance user engagement and improve the discovery and delivery of therapy content. Methods: Our case study is the ongoing Horyzons site (5-year randomized controlled trial for youth recovering from early psychosis), which is powered by MOST. We outline the motivation underlying the project and the web application's foundational features and interface. We discuss system innovations, including the incorporation of pertinent usage patterns as well as identifying certain limitations of the system. This leads to our current motivations and focus on using computational and artificial intelligence methods to enhance user engagement, and to further improve the system with novel mechanisms for the delivery of therapy content to users. In particular, we cover our usage of natural language analysis

  7. The Effects of an Online Mind-Body Training Program on Stress, Coping Strategies, Emotional Intelligence, Resilience and Psychological State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ye-Ha; Ha, Tae Min; Oh, Chang Young; Lee, Ui Soon; Jang, Joon Hwan; Kim, Jungwon; Park, Jae-Oh; Kang, Do-Hyung

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of an online mind-body training (MBT) program on participants' stress, anger, coping strategies, emotional intelligence, resilience, and positive and negative affect. Forty-two healthy women participated in an online MBT program for approximately 8-10 minutes a day for 8 weeks; a control group of 45 healthy women did not participate in the program. Self-report psychological questionnaires were administered before the beginning of the program and at 4 and 8 weeks following its onset. Data from the MBT group and the control group were compared using repeated measures ANOVA and Student's t-tests. Significant time x group interaction effects were found with respect to stress, coping strategies, anger, emotional intelligence, negative affect and resilience. These results demonstrate beneficial effects of the online MBT program and significant improvements in the psychological capabilities of participants compared with the control group. The effects of online MBT program were similar with those of the previous offline MBT in psychological aspects, suggesting further studies for neuroscientific evidence related stress and emotion of online MBT effects.

  8. High Level of Emotional Intelligence Is Related to High Level of Online Teaching Self-Efficacy among Academic Nurse Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Nagia; Ali, Omar; Jones, James

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between emotional intelligence (EI) and online teaching self-efficacy among 115 academic nurse educators who teach online (totally, blended, or both). The sample was randomly drawn from the list of nursing schools accredited by Commission on Collegiate Nursing Education (CCNE) with baccalaureate, master's…

  9. Increases in Emotional Intelligence After an Online Training Program Are Associated With Better Decision-Making on the Iowa Gambling Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkozei, Anna; Smith, Ryan; Demers, Lauren A; Weber, Mareen; Berryhill, Sarah M; Killgore, William D S

    2018-01-01

    Higher levels of emotional intelligence have been associated with better inter and intrapersonal functioning. In the present study, 59 healthy men and women were randomized into either a three-week online training program targeted to improve emotional intelligence ( n = 29), or a placebo control training program targeted to improve awareness of nonemotional aspects of the environment ( n = 30). Compared to placebo, participants in the emotional intelligence training group showed increased performance on the total emotional intelligence score of the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, a performance measure of emotional intelligence, as well as subscales of perceiving emotions and facilitating thought. Moreover, after emotional intelligence training, but not after placebo training, individuals displayed the ability to arrive at optimal performance faster (i.e., they showed a faster learning rate) during an emotion-guided decision-making task (i.e., the Iowa Gambling Task). More specifically, although both groups showed similar performance at the start of the Iowa Gambling Task from pre- to posttraining, the participants in the emotional intelligence training group learned to choose more advantageous than disadvantageous decks than those in the placebo training group by the time they reached the "hunch" period of the task (i.e., the point in the task when implicit task learning is thought to have occurred). Greater total improvements in performance on the Iowa Gambling Task from pre- to posttraining in the emotional intelligence training group were also positively correlated with pre- to posttraining changes in Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test scores, in particular with changes in the ability to perceive emotions. The present study provides preliminary evidence that emotional intelligence can be trained with the help of an online training program targeted at adults; it also suggests that changes in emotional intelligence, as a

  10. Addressing diverse learner preferences and intelligences with emerging technologies: Matching models to online opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Zhang

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper critically reviews various learning preferences and human intelligence theories and models with a particular focus on the implications for online learning. It highlights a few key models, Gardner’s multiple intelligences, Fleming and Mills’ VARK model, Honey and Mumford’s Learning Styles, and Kolb’s Experiential Learning Model, and attempts to link them to trends and opportunities in online learning with emerging technologies. By intersecting such models with online technologies, it offers instructors and instructional designers across educational sectors and situations new ways to think about addressing diverse learner needs, backgrounds, and expectations. Learning technologies are important for effective teaching, as are theories and models and theories of learning. We argue that more immense power can be derived from connections between the theories, models and learning technologies. Résumé : Cet article passe en revue de manière critique les divers modèles et théories sur les préférences d’apprentissage et l’intelligence humaine, avec un accent particulier sur les implications qui en découlent pour l’apprentissage en ligne. L’article présente quelques-uns des principaux modèles (les intelligences multiples de Gardner, le modèle VAK de Fleming et Mills, les styles d’apprentissage de Honey et Mumford et le modèle d’apprentissage expérientiel de Kolb et tente de les relier à des tendances et occasions d’apprentissage en ligne qui utilisent les nouvelles technologies. En croisant ces modèles avec les technologies Web, les instructeurs et concepteurs pédagogiques dans les secteurs de l’éducation ou en situation éducationnelle se voient offrir de nouvelles façons de tenir compte des divers besoins, horizons et attentes des apprenants. Les technologies d’apprentissage sont importantes pour un enseignement efficace, tout comme les théories et les modèles d’apprentissage. Nous sommes d

  11. The Effects of an Online Mind-Body Training Program on Stress, Coping Strategies, Emotional Intelligence, Resilience and Psychological State.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye-Ha Jung

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of an online mind-body training (MBT program on participants' stress, anger, coping strategies, emotional intelligence, resilience, and positive and negative affect. Forty-two healthy women participated in an online MBT program for approximately 8-10 minutes a day for 8 weeks; a control group of 45 healthy women did not participate in the program. Self-report psychological questionnaires were administered before the beginning of the program and at 4 and 8 weeks following its onset. Data from the MBT group and the control group were compared using repeated measures ANOVA and Student's t-tests. Significant time x group interaction effects were found with respect to stress, coping strategies, anger, emotional intelligence, negative affect and resilience. These results demonstrate beneficial effects of the online MBT program and significant improvements in the psychological capabilities of participants compared with the control group. The effects of online MBT program were similar with those of the previous offline MBT in psychological aspects, suggesting further studies for neuroscientific evidence related stress and emotion of online MBT effects.

  12. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  13. An on-line gas control system using an artificial intelligence language: PROLOG II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, C.

    1990-01-01

    An application of Artificial Intelligence to a real physics experiment is presented. This allows comparison with classical programming techniques. The PROLOG language appears as a convenient on-line language, easily interfaced to the low level service routines, for which algorithmic languages can still be used. Steering modules have been written for a gas acquisition and analysis program, and for a control system with graphic human interface. This system includes safety rules and automatic action sequences

  14. Seeking an optimal renal replacement therapy for the chronic kidney disease epidemic: the case for on-line hemodiafiltration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatti, Emanuele; Ronco, Claudio

    2011-01-01

    the overall costs incurred by payers of renal care. In short, optimal care needs to be provided with shrinking resources and without compromising the medical appropriateness of the therapy. Additionally, we believe ensuring improved quality of life is just as important as prolonging patient survival. Therefore, a balanced compromise between optimal and affordable technology is required in order to reach the targets of achieving good medical care and meeting the expectations of patients, their families, healthcare providers, and society as a whole. Under these premises, and focusing on the aforementioned targets, we believe that on-line hemodiafiltration (HDF) represents the most advanced and clinically appropriate RRT modality available to best cope with the CKD epidemic. Together with the guidance and recommendations of those taking care of CKD patients on dialysis therapy, the contribution of industry is indispensable for the availability of highly reliable and affordable solutions to the impending dilemma. As representatives of the academic-medical community and of industry, we present a joint case for the application of on-line HDF towards meeting the challenge of large-scale provision of dialysis under an increasingly restrictive financial climate. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. The Effects of Textisms on Learning, Study Time, and Instructional Perceptions in an Online Artificial Intelligence Instructional Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beasley, Robert; Bryant, Nathan L.; Dodson, Phillip T.; Entwistle, Kevin C.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of textisms (i.e., abbreviated spellings, acronyms, and other shorthand notations) on learning, study time, and instructional perceptions in an online artificial intelligence instructional module. The independent variable in this investigation was experimental condition. For the control…

  16. Addressing the "Epidemic" of Overweight Children by Using the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Mick; Wallinga, Charlotte; Bales, Diane

    2009-01-01

    The Internet can be of great assistance to early childhood teachers in planning educational activities for the classroom and with families. This article explores how early childhood teachers can use resources online to address what has been called an "epidemic" of overweight children. Guidelines for using online resources are presented. (Contains…

  17. Facilitating Multiple Intelligences Through Multimodal Learning Analytics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayesha PERVEEN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a theoretical framework for employing learning analytics in online education to trace multiple learning variations of online students by considering their potential of being multiple intelligences based on Howard Gardner’s 1983 theory of multiple intelligences. The study first emphasizes the need to facilitate students as multiple intelligences by online education systems and then suggests a framework of the advanced form of learning analytics i.e., multimodal learning analytics for tracing and facilitating multiple intelligences while they are engaged in online ubiquitous learning. As multimodal learning analytics is still an evolving area, it poses many challenges for technologists, educationists as well as organizational managers. Learning analytics make machines meet humans, therefore, the educationists with an expertise in learning theories can help technologists devise latest technological methods for multimodal learning analytics and organizational managers can implement them for the improvement of online education. Therefore, a careful instructional design based on a deep understanding of students’ learning abilities, is required to develop teaching plans and technological possibilities for monitoring students’ learning paths. This is how learning analytics can help design an adaptive instructional design based on a quick analysis of the data gathered. Based on that analysis, the academicians can critically reflect upon the quick or delayed implementation of the existing instructional design based on students’ cognitive abilities or even about the single or double loop learning design. The researcher concludes that the online education is multimodal in nature, has the capacity to endorse multiliteracies and, therefore, multiple intelligences can be tracked and facilitated through multimodal learning analytics in an online mode. However, online teachers’ training both in technological implementations and

  18. Tool path strategy and cutting process monitoring in intelligent machining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming; Wang, Chengdong; An, Qinglong; Ming, Weiwei

    2018-06-01

    Intelligent machining is a current focus in advanced manufacturing technology, and is characterized by high accuracy and efficiency. A central technology of intelligent machining—the cutting process online monitoring and optimization—is urgently needed for mass production. In this research, the cutting process online monitoring and optimization in jet engine impeller machining, cranio-maxillofacial surgery, and hydraulic servo valve deburring are introduced as examples of intelligent machining. Results show that intelligent tool path optimization and cutting process online monitoring are efficient techniques for improving the efficiency, quality, and reliability of machining.

  19. Facilitating Multiple Intelligences through Multimodal Learning Analytics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perveen, Ayesha

    2018-01-01

    This paper develops a theoretical framework for employing learning analytics in online education to trace multiple learning variations of online students by considering their potential of being multiple intelligences based on Howard Gardner's 1983 theory of multiple intelligences. The study first emphasizes the need to facilitate students as…

  20. Reading the Mind in the Eyes or Reading between the Lines? Theory of Mind Predicts Collective Intelligence Equally Well Online and Face-To-Face

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, David; Woolley, Anita Williams; Jing, Lisa X.; Chabris, Christopher F.; Malone, Thomas W.

    2014-01-01

    Recent research with face-to-face groups found that a measure of general group effectiveness (called “collective intelligence”) predicted a group’s performance on a wide range of different tasks. The same research also found that collective intelligence was correlated with the individual group members’ ability to reason about the mental states of others (an ability called “Theory of Mind” or “ToM”). Since ToM was measured in this work by a test that requires participants to “read” the mental states of others from looking at their eyes (the “Reading the Mind in the Eyes” test), it is uncertain whether the same results would emerge in online groups where these visual cues are not available. Here we find that: (1) a collective intelligence factor characterizes group performance approximately as well for online groups as for face-to-face groups; and (2) surprisingly, the ToM measure is equally predictive of collective intelligence in both face-to-face and online groups, even though the online groups communicate only via text and never see each other at all. This provides strong evidence that ToM abilities are just as important to group performance in online environments with limited nonverbal cues as they are face-to-face. It also suggests that the Reading the Mind in the Eyes test measures a deeper, domain-independent aspect of social reasoning, not merely the ability to recognize facial expressions of mental states. PMID:25514387

  1. A Cybernetic Design Methodology for 'Intelligent' Online Learning Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinton, Stephen R.

    The World Wide Web (WWW) provides learners and knowledge workers convenient access to vast stores of information, so much that present methods for refinement of a query or search result are inadequate - there is far too much potentially useful material. The problem often encountered is that users usually do not recognise what may be useful until they have progressed some way through the discovery, learning, and knowledge acquisition process. Additional support is needed to structure and identify potentially relevant information, and to provide constructive feedback. In short, support for learning is needed. The learning envisioned here is not simply the capacity to recall facts or to recognise objects. The focus is on learning that results in the construction of knowledge. Although most online learning platforms are efficient at delivering information, most do not provide tools that support learning as envisaged in this chapter. It is conceivable that Web-based learning environments can incorporate software systems that assist learners to form new associations between concepts and synthesise information to create new knowledge. This chapter details the rationale and theory behind a research study that aims to evolve Web-based learning environments into 'intelligent thinking' systems that respond to natural language human input. Rather than functioning simply as a means of delivering information, it is argued that online learning solutions will 1 day interact directly with students to support their conceptual thinking and cognitive development.

  2. Prediction of pork loin quality using online computer vision system and artificial intelligence model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Young, Jennifer; Liu, Jeng-Hung; Newman, David

    2018-06-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a computer vision system (CVS) for objective measurement of pork loin under industry speed requirement. Color images of pork loin samples were acquired using a CVS. Subjective color and marbling scores were determined according to the National Pork Board standards by a trained evaluator. Instrument color measurement and crude fat percentage were used as control measurements. Image features (18 color features; 1 marbling feature; 88 texture features) were extracted from whole pork loin color images. Artificial intelligence prediction model (support vector machine) was established for pork color and marbling quality grades. The results showed that CVS with support vector machine modeling reached the highest prediction accuracy of 92.5% for measured pork color score and 75.0% for measured pork marbling score. This research shows that the proposed artificial intelligence prediction model with CVS can provide an effective tool for predicting color and marbling in the pork industry at online speeds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  4. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  5. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  6. Intelligent Information Retrieval: An Introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauch, Susan

    1992-01-01

    Discusses the application of artificial intelligence to online information retrieval systems and describes several systems: (1) CANSEARCH, from MEDLINE; (2) Intelligent Interface for Information Retrieval (I3R); (3) Gausch's Query Reformulation; (4) Environmental Pollution Expert (EP-X); (5) PLEXUS (gardening); and (6) SCISOR (corporate…

  7. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  8. Online Learning Flight Control for Intelligent Flight Control Systems (IFCS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niewoehner, Kevin R.; Carter, John (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The research accomplishments for the cooperative agreement 'Online Learning Flight Control for Intelligent Flight Control Systems (IFCS)' include the following: (1) previous IFC program data collection and analysis; (2) IFC program support site (configured IFC systems support network, configured Tornado/VxWorks OS development system, made Configuration and Documentation Management Systems Internet accessible); (3) Airborne Research Test Systems (ARTS) II Hardware (developed hardware requirements specification, developing environmental testing requirements, hardware design, and hardware design development); (4) ARTS II software development laboratory unit (procurement of lab style hardware, configured lab style hardware, and designed interface module equivalent to ARTS II faceplate); (5) program support documentation (developed software development plan, configuration management plan, and software verification and validation plan); (6) LWR algorithm analysis (performed timing and profiling on algorithm); (7) pre-trained neural network analysis; (8) Dynamic Cell Structures (DCS) Neural Network Analysis (performing timing and profiling on algorithm); and (9) conducted technical interchange and quarterly meetings to define IFC research goals.

  9. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  10. Fostering Emotional Intelligence in Online Higher Education Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majeski, Robin A.; Stover, Merrily; Valais, Teresa; Ronch, Judah

    2017-01-01

    Given the complex challenges organizations face and the importance of emotional intelligence to effective leadership, management education has begun to help adult learners develop emotional intelligence competencies. These include emotional self-control, conflict management, teamwork, cultural awareness, and inspirational leadership, among other…

  11. The new competitive intelligence agents: "Programming" competitive intelligence ethics into corporate cultures

    OpenAIRE

    Betsy Van der Veer Martens; Emilie Steele Giustozzi

    2011-01-01

    This article examines some of the ethical issues involved in competitive intelligence activities on the Internet. We discuss the importance of an ethical framework for the performance of competitive intelligence, especially the Code of Ethics of SCIP (the leading professional association for strategic and competitive professionals), in the context of today's networked global environment. The virtual borderlines separating national economic and military territories online are becoming increasi...

  12. 5th Computer Science On-line Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Senkerik, Roman; Oplatkova, Zuzana; Silhavy, Petr; Prokopova, Zdenka

    2016-01-01

    This volume is based on the research papers presented in the 5th Computer Science On-line Conference. The volume Artificial Intelligence Perspectives in Intelligent Systems presents modern trends and methods to real-world problems, and in particular, exploratory research that describes novel approaches in the field of artificial intelligence. New algorithms in a variety of fields are also presented. The Computer Science On-line Conference (CSOC 2016) is intended to provide an international forum for discussions on the latest research results in all areas related to Computer Science. The addressed topics are the theoretical aspects and applications of Computer Science, Artificial Intelligences, Cybernetics, Automation Control Theory and Software Engineering.

  13. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE AND SOCIAL MEDIA LISTENING

    OpenAIRE

    Tsvetta Kaleynska

    2015-01-01

    Business intelligence has been completely revamped over the past decade. After the arrival of social media, all brands realized that the organic insights and business intelligence lays in the conversation online. With that, the present and future of business can be found in social media listening.

  14. Intelligent type sodium instrumentations for LMFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daolong Chen

    1996-01-01

    The constructions and their performances of a lot of newly developed intelligent type sodium instrumentations that consist of the intelligent type sodium flowmeter, the intelligent type immersed sodium flowmeter, the intelligent type sodium manometer and the intelligent type sodium level gauge are described. The graduation characteristic equations for corresponding transducer using the medium temperature as the parameter are given. Because the operating temperature limit of measured medium (sodium) is wide, so the on-line compensation of the temperature effect of their graduation characteristics much be considered. The tests show that these intelligent type sodium instrumentations possess of good linearity. The accurate sodium process parameter (flowrate, pressure and level) measurement data can be obtained by means of their on-line compensation function of the temperature effect. Moreover, these intelligent type sodium instrumentations possess of the self-inspection, the electric shutoff protection, the setting of full-scale, the setting of alarm limits (two upper limits and two lower limits alarms), the thermocouple breaking alarm, each other isolative the 0-10V direct-current analogue output and CENTRONICS standard digital output, and the alarm relay contact output. These intelligent type sodium instrumentations are suitable particularly for the instrument, control and protective systems of LMFR by means of these excellent functions based on microprocessor. The basic error of the intelligent type sodium flowmeter, immersed sodium flowmeter, sodium manometer and sodium level gauge is respectively ±2%, ±2.3%, ±0.3% and ±1.9% of measuring range. (author). 4 refs, 9 figs

  15. LIA: An Intelligent Advisor for E-Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, Nicola; Gaeta, Matteo; Marengo, Agostino; Miranda, Sergio; Orciuoli, Francesco; Ritrovato, Pierluigi

    2009-01-01

    Intelligent e-learning systems have revolutionized online education by providing individualized and personalized instruction for each learner. Nevertheless, until now very few systems were able to leave academic laboratories and be integrated into real commercial products. One of these few exceptions is the Learning Intelligent Advisor (LIA)…

  16. Multiple Intelligences, Motivations and Learning Experience Regarding Video-Assisted Subjects in a Rural University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajhashemi, Karim; Caltabiano, Nerina; Anderson, Neil; Tabibzadeh, Seyed Asadollah

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates multiple intelligences in relation to online video experiences, age, gender, and mode of learning from a rural Australian university. The inter-relationships between learners' different intelligences and their motivations and learning experience with the supplementary online videos utilised in their subjects are…

  17. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match

  18. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  19. An online spatiotemporal prediction model for dengue fever epidemic in Kaohsiung (Taiwan).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Angulo, José M; Cheng, Ming-Hung; Wu, Jiaping; Christakos, George

    2014-05-01

    The emergence and re-emergence of disease epidemics is a complex question that may be influenced by diverse factors, including the space-time dynamics of human populations, environmental conditions, and associated uncertainties. This study proposes a stochastic framework to integrate space-time dynamics in the form of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, together with uncertain disease observations, into a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) framework. The resulting model (BME-SIR) can be used to predict space-time disease spread. Specifically, it was applied to obtain a space-time prediction of the dengue fever (DF) epidemic that took place in Kaohsiung City (Taiwan) during 2002. In implementing the model, the SIR parameters were continually updated and information on new cases of infection was incorporated. The results obtained show that the proposed model is rigorous to user-specified initial values of unknown model parameters, that is, transmission and recovery rates. In general, this model provides a good characterization of the spatial diffusion of the DF epidemic, especially in the city districts proximal to the location of the outbreak. Prediction performance may be affected by various factors, such as virus serotypes and human intervention, which can change the space-time dynamics of disease diffusion. The proposed BME-SIR disease prediction model can provide government agencies with a valuable reference for the timely identification, control, and prevention of DF spread in space and time. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Online Plagiarism Training Falls Short in Biology Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Emily A.; Fagerheim, Britt; Durham, Susan

    2014-01-01

    Online plagiarism tutorials are increasingly popular in higher education, as faculty and staff try to curb the plagiarism epidemic. Yet no research has validated the efficacy of such tools in minimizing plagiarism in the sciences. Our study compared three plagiarism-avoidance training regimens (i.e., no training, online tutorial, or homework…

  1. The Construction of Intelligent English Teaching Model Based on Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to build a modernized tool platform that can help students improve their English learning efficiency according to their mastery of knowledge and personality, this paper develops an online intelligent English learning system that uses Java and artificial intelligence language Prolog as the software system. This system is a creative reflection of the thoughts of expert system in artificial intelligence. Established on the Struts Spring Hibernate lightweight JavaEE framework, the system modules are coupled with each other in a much lower degree, which is convenient to future function extension. Combined with the idea of expert system in artificial intelligence, the system developed appropriate learning strategies to help students double the learning effect with half the effort; Finally, the system takes into account the forgetting curve of memory, on which basis the knowledge that has been learned will be tested periodically, intending to spare students’ efforts to do a sea of exercises and obtain better learning results.

  2. Hacking web intelligence open source intelligence and web reconnaissance concepts and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Chauhan, Sudhanshu

    2015-01-01

    Open source intelligence (OSINT) and web reconnaissance are rich topics for infosec professionals looking for the best ways to sift through the abundance of information widely available online. In many cases, the first stage of any security assessment-that is, reconnaissance-is not given enough attention by security professionals, hackers, and penetration testers. Often, the information openly present is as critical as the confidential data. Hacking Web Intelligence shows you how to dig into the Web and uncover the information many don't even know exists. The book takes a holistic approach

  3. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  4. Distributed intelligence at CELLO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, W. de

    1981-01-01

    This paper describes the use of distributed intelligence at CELLO, a large 4π detector at PETRA. Besides special purpose hardware processors for online calibration and reformatting of data, several microcomputers are used for monitoring and testing the various detector components. (orig.)

  5. Intelligent Counseling System: A 24 x 7 Academic Advisor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Chun Ming; Tsang, Eva Y. M.; Lam, S. S.; Pang, Dominic C. W.

    2010-01-01

    Universities are increasingly looking into self-service systems with intelligent digital agents to supplement or replace labor-intensive services, such as academic counseling. The Open University of Hong Kong has developed an intelligent online system that instantly responds to enquiries about career development, learning modes, program/course…

  6. A business intelligence approach using web search tools and online data reduction techniques to examine the value of product-enabled services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanev, Stoyan; Liotta, Giacomo; Kleismantas, Andrius

    2015-01-01

    in Canada and Europe. It adopts an innovative methodology based on online textual data that could be implemented in advanced business intelligence tools aiming at the facilitation of innovation, marketing and business decision making. Combinations of keywords referring to different aspects of service value......-service innovation as a competitive advantage on the marketplace. On the other hand, the focus of EU firms on innovative hybrid offerings is not explicitly related to business differentiation and competitiveness....

  7. Intelligent Evaluation Method of Tank Bottom Corrosion Status Based on Improved BP Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Feng; Dai, Guang; Zhang, Ying

    According to the acoustic emission information and the appearance inspection information of tank bottom online testing, the external factors associated with tank bottom corrosion status are confirmed. Applying artificial neural network intelligent evaluation method, three tank bottom corrosion status evaluation models based on appearance inspection information, acoustic emission information, and online testing information are established. Comparing with the result of acoustic emission online testing through the evaluation of test sample, the accuracy of the evaluation model based on online testing information is 94 %. The evaluation model can evaluate tank bottom corrosion accurately and realize acoustic emission online testing intelligent evaluation of tank bottom.

  8. Intelligent Control of Diesel Generators Using Gain-Scheduling Based on Online External-Load Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Christian; Jepsen, Kasper Lund; Yang, Zhenyu

    2014-01-01

    The development of an intelligent control solution for a wide range of diesel generators is discussed. Compared with most existing solutions, the advantages of the proposed solution lie in two folds: (i) The proposed control has the plug-and-play capability which is reflected by an automatic...... recognition procedure when it is plugged into a specific diesel generator, such that some extensive manual-tuning of the installed controller can be significantly reduced; (ii) The proposed control has an real-time adaptability by using the online external load estimation, such that the integrated system can...... keep a consistent performance for a wide range of operating conditions. Technically, a general nonlinear dynamic model is firstly developed based on fundamental principles of diesel generators. Then, the system parameters of this model can be identified experimentally or partially retrieved from...

  9. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI): On-Line Intelligent Self-Diagnostic Monitoring for Next Generation Nuclear Plants - Phase I Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, L.G.; Doctor, S.R.; Gilbert, R.W.; Jarrell, D.B.; Greitzer, F.L.; Meador, R.J.

    2000-01-01

    OAK-B135 This OSTI ID belongs to an IWO and is being released out of the system. The Program Manager Rebecca Richardson has confirmed that all reports have been received. The objective of this project is to design and demonstrate the operation of the real-time intelligent self-diagnostic and prognostic system for next generation nuclear power plant systems. This new self-diagnostic technology is titled, ''On-Line Intelligent Self-Diagnostic Monitoring System'' (SDMS). This project provides a proof-of-principle technology demonstration for SDMS on a pilot plant scale service water system, where a distributed array of sensors is integrated with active components and passive structures typical of next generation nuclear power reactor and plant systems. This project employs state-of-the-art sensors, instrumentation, and computer processing to improve the monitoring and assessment of the power reactor system and to provide diagnostic and automated prognostics capabilities

  10. Employing Artificial Intelligence To Minimise Internet Fraud

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Wong Sek Khin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Internet fraud is increasing on a daily basis with new methods for extracting funds from government, corporations, businesses in general, and persons appearing almost hourly. The increases in on-line purchasing and the constant vigilance of both seller and buyer have meant that the criminal seems to be one-step ahead at all times. To pre-empt or to stop fraud before it can happen occurs in the non-computer based daily transactions of today because of the natural intelligence of the players, both seller and buyer. Currently, even with advances in computing techniques, intelligence is not the current strength of any computing system of today, yet techniques are available which may reduce the occurrences of fraud, and are usually referred to as artificial intelligence systems.This paper provides an overview of the use of current artificial intelligence (AI techniques as a means of combating fraud.Initially the paper describes how artificial intelligence techniques are employed in systems for detecting credit card fraud (online and offline fraud and insider trading.Following this, an attempt is made to propose the using of MonITARS (Monitoring Insider Trading and Regulatory Surveillance Systems framework which use a combination of genetic algorithms, neural nets and statistical analysis in detecting insider dealing. Finally, the paper discusses future research agenda to the role of using MonITARS system.

  11. Can Health 2.0 Address Critical Healthcare Challenges? Insights from the Case of How Online Social Networks Can Assist in Combatting the Obesity Epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janine Hacker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the serious concerns in healthcare in this 21st century is obesity. While the causes of obesity are multifaceted, social networks have been identified as one of the most important dimensions of people's social environment that may influence the adoption of many behaviours, including health-promoting behaviours. In this article, we examine the possibility of harnessing the appeal of online social networks to address the obesity epidemic currently plaguing society. Specifically, a design science research methodology is adopted to design, implement and test the Health 2.0 application called “Calorie Cruncher”. The application is designed specifically to explore the influence of online social networks on individual’s health-related behaviour. In this regard, pilot data collected based on qualitative interviews indicate that online social networks may influence health-related behaviours in several ways. Firstly, they can influence people’s norms and value system that have an impact on their health-related behaviours. Secondly, social control and pressure of social connections may also shape health-related behaviours, and operate implicitly when people make food selection decisions. Thirdly, social relationships may provide emotional support. Our study has implications for research and practice. From a theoretical perspective, the article inductively identifies three factors that influence specific types of health outcomes in the context of obesity. From a practical perspective, the study underscores the benefits of adopting a design science methodology to design and implement a technology solution for a healthcare issue as well as the key role for online social media to assist with health and wellness management and maintenance.

  12. An Intelligent Optical Dissolved Oxygen Measurement Method Based on a Fluorescent Quenching Mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fengmei; Wei, Yaoguang; Chen, Yingyi; Li, Daoliang; Zhang, Xu

    2015-12-09

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key factor that influences the healthy growth of fishes in aquaculture. The DO content changes with the aquatic environment and should therefore be monitored online. However, traditional measurement methods, such as iodometry and other chemical analysis methods, are not suitable for online monitoring. The Clark method is not stable enough for extended periods of monitoring. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an intelligent DO measurement method based on the fluorescence quenching mechanism. The measurement system is composed of fluorescent quenching detection, signal conditioning, intelligent processing, and power supply modules. The optical probe adopts the fluorescent quenching mechanism to detect the DO content and solves the problem, whereas traditional chemical methods are easily influenced by the environment. The optical probe contains a thermistor and dual excitation sources to isolate visible parasitic light and execute a compensation strategy. The intelligent processing module adopts the IEEE 1451.2 standard and realizes intelligent compensation. Experimental results show that the optical measurement method is stable, accurate, and suitable for online DO monitoring in aquaculture applications.

  13. An Intelligent Optical Dissolved Oxygen Measurement Method Based on a Fluorescent Quenching Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengmei Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Dissolved oxygen (DO is a key factor that influences the healthy growth of fishes in aquaculture. The DO content changes with the aquatic environment and should therefore be monitored online. However, traditional measurement methods, such as iodometry and other chemical analysis methods, are not suitable for online monitoring. The Clark method is not stable enough for extended periods of monitoring. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an intelligent DO measurement method based on the fluorescence quenching mechanism. The measurement system is composed of fluorescent quenching detection, signal conditioning, intelligent processing, and power supply modules. The optical probe adopts the fluorescent quenching mechanism to detect the DO content and solves the problem, whereas traditional chemical methods are easily influenced by the environment. The optical probe contains a thermistor and dual excitation sources to isolate visible parasitic light and execute a compensation strategy. The intelligent processing module adopts the IEEE 1451.2 standard and realizes intelligent compensation. Experimental results show that the optical measurement method is stable, accurate, and suitable for online DO monitoring in aquaculture applications.

  14. An Exploratory Study on Multiple Intelligences and Social Work Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matto, Holly; Berry-Edwards, Janice; Hutchison, Elizabeth D.; Bryant, Shirley A.; Waldbillig, Amy

    2006-01-01

    This study surveyed social work educators about the importance of multiple intelligences for social work practice and social work education. The sample consisted of 91 faculty members who responded to an online survey that asked them to rate the importance of 7 intelligences (linguistic, logical-mathematical, musical, bodily-kinesthetic, spatial,…

  15. GROWTH OF COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE BY LINKING KNOWLEDGE WORKERS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAROSLAVA KUBÁTOVÁ

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Collective intelligence can be defined, very broadly, as groups of individuals that do things collectively, and that seem to be intelligent. Collective intelligence has existed for ages. Families, tribes, companies, countries, etc., are all groups of individuals doing things collectively, and that seem to be intelligent. However, over the past two decades, the rise of the Internet has given upturn to new types of collective intelligence. Companies can take advantage from the so-called Web-enabled collective intelligence. Web-enabled collective intelligence is based on linking knowledge workers through social media. That means that companies can hire geographically dispersed knowledge workers and create so-called virtual teams of these knowledge workers (members of the virtual teams are connected only via the Internet and do not meet face to face. By providing an online social network, the companies can achieve significant growth of collective intelligence. But to create and use an online social network within a company in a really efficient way, the managers need to have a deep understanding of how such a system works. Thus the purpose of this paper is to share the knowledge about effective use of social networks in companies. The main objectives of this paper are as follows: to introduce some good practices of the use of social media in companies, to analyze these practices and to generalize recommendations for a successful introduction and use of social media to increase collective intelligence of a company.

  16. Responsible vendors, intelligent consumers: Silk Road, the online revolution in drug trading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hout, Marie Claire; Bingham, Tim

    2014-03-01

    Silk Road is located on the Deep Web and provides an anonymous transacting infrastructure for the retail of drugs and pharmaceuticals. Members are attracted to the site due to protection of identity by screen pseudonyms, variety and quality of product listings, selection of vendors based on reviews, reduced personal risks, stealth of product delivery, development of personal connections with vendors in stealth modes and forum activity. The study aimed to explore vendor accounts of Silk Road as retail infrastructure. A single and holistic case study with embedded units approach (Yin, 2003) was chosen to explore the accounts of vendor subunits situated within the Silk Road marketplace. Vendors (n=10) completed an online interview via the direct message facility and via Tor mail. Vendors described themselves as 'intelligent and responsible' consumers of drugs. Decisions to commence vending operations on the site centred on simplicity in setting up vendor accounts, and opportunity to operate within a low risk, high traffic, high mark-up, secure and anonymous Deep Web infrastructure. The embedded online culture of harm reduction ethos appealed to them in terms of the responsible vending and use of personally tested high quality products. The professional approach to running their Silk Road businesses and dedication to providing a quality service was characterised by professional advertising of quality products, professional communication and visibility on forum pages, speedy dispatch of slightly overweight products, competitive pricing, good stealth techniques and efforts to avoid customer disputes. Vendors appeared content with a fairly constant buyer demand and described a relatively competitive market between small and big time market players. Concerns were evident with regard to Bitcoin instability. The greatest threat to Silk Road and other sites operating on the Deep Web is not law enforcement or market dynamics, it is technology itself. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier

  17. Cognitive Process as a Basis for Intelligent Retrieval Systems Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsinchun; Dhar, Vasant

    1991-01-01

    Two studies of the cognitive processes involved in online document-based information retrieval were conducted. These studies led to the development of five computational models of online document retrieval which were incorporated into the design of an "intelligent" document-based retrieval system. Both the system and the broader implications of…

  18. Are the Emotionally Intelligent Happier? Associations Between the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire (TEIQUE) and External Measures of Happiness and Well-Being.

    OpenAIRE

    Raithatha, Sonal

    2009-01-01

    This study used self-report questionnaires to investigate emotional intelligence (EI) in relation to happiness and well-being. Previous research has supported the links between well-being and life satisfaction to EI. This study aimed to look specifically at associations between the full version of the ‘Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire’ (TEIQue) (Petrides, 2009) for trait EI and an external measure of happiness. A student sample (N=187) completed 4 questionnaires online; The TEIQue f...

  19. Proceedings of the 6th Computer Science On-line Conference 2017

    CERN Document Server

    Senkerik, Roman; Oplatkova, Zuzana; Prokopova, Zdenka; Silhavy, Petr

    2017-01-01

    This book presents new methods and approaches to real-world problems as well as exploratory research that describes novel artificial intelligence applications, including deep learning, neural networks and hybrid algorithms. This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Artificial Intelligence Trends in Intelligent Systems Section of the 6th Computer Science On-line Conference 2017 (CSOC 2017), held in April 2017. .

  20. Emotional competence and online game use in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Mia; Kang, Hee Sun; Chae, Sun-Mi

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relations between emotional competence and online game use in adolescents. This study is a cross-sectional descriptive survey using a convenience sample. The participants were 2199 adolescents in South Korea. Online game use and emotional competence including positive emotion, emotional expression, and emotional intelligence were measured. The study results indicated that emotional competence was negatively correlated with excessive online game use. All variables of emotional competence were significantly lower in high-risk users compared with general users. In addition, female adolescents were rated significantly higher in emotional competence among general users, but there were no significant gender differences among high-risk users. The results of our study imply that high-risk game users have lower levels of emotional intelligence than general users do. The results of this study suggest that emotion is an important factor to which practitioners in psychomedical fields and nursing should pay attention. Therefore, nurses in schools and communities should regularly screen the emotions of adolescents who habitually play online games and develop a program to enhance emotional competence associated with online games.

  1. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  2. Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

    2013-06-01

    The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

  3. Point of View: Online assessment in medical education– current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    time-consuming burden for medical education institutions1,2. Online assessment is ... online assessment and discusses the impact these will have on the future of this ... in medical education is a move away from the artificial distinction between ... increasingly intelligent text recognition software will enable the delivery and ...

  4. Pengaruh Kecanduan Game Online Siswa SMA Kelas X Terhadap Kecerdasan Sosial Sekolah Kristen Swasta Di Makassar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    maurice andrew suplig

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Perkembangan teknologi pada masa ini sangat berkembang pesat. Salah satu bagian dari hal ini adalah perkembangan game online yang berbasis pada internet. Perkembangan game online ini sudah menguasai banyak orang dan terutama kepada anak-anak remaja. Banyak anak-anak remaja mengalami kecanduan game online. Anak-anak ini menghabiskan banyak waktu untuk bermain game online. Karena menghabiskan waktu yang sangat banyak membuat anak-anak ini kurang bergaul dengan teman-teman di dalam dunia nyata. Oleh karena itu, tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah: Pertama, untuk mengetahui bagaimana game online mengakibatkan seorang pemain game online menjadi kecanduan. Kedua, untuk mengetahui apakah kecanduan game online memengaruhi kecerdasan sosial bagi pengguna game online. Ketiga, supaya siswa kelas X dan remaja pada umumnya memahami bahaya dari kecanduan game online. Keempat, menolong para pemuda remaja untuk terhindar dari masalah kecanduan game online yang berdampak negatif pada kecerdasan sosial.Technology development is very rapidly growing at the present time. One part of this is the development of online games based on the internet. The development of these online games has already gained control over many people, especially teenagers. Teenagers spend a lot of time playing online games. Social intelligence is low making these kids less sociable with friends in the real world. The purpose of this paper is: First, to find out how online games result in online game players becoming addicted. Secondly, to find out if online game addiction affects social intelligence for online gaming users. Third, so that students of class X and teenagers generally understand the dangers of online game addiction. Fourth, to help teenagers to avoid online game addiction problems that negatively impact social intelligence.

  5. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  6. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  7. Intelligent type sodium instrumentations for LMFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Daolong

    1996-07-01

    The constructions and performances of lots of newly developed intelligent type sodium instrumentations are described. The graduation characteristic equations for corresponding transducer using the medium temperature as the parameter are given. These intelligent type sodium instrumentations are possessed of good linearity. The accurate measurement data of sodium process parameters (flowrate, pressure and level) can be obtained by means of their on-line compensation function of the temperature effect. Moreover, these intelligent type sodium instrumentations are possessed of the self-inspection, the electric shutoff protection, the setting of full-scale, the setting of alarm limits (two upper limits and two lower limits alarms), the thermocouple breaking alarm, mutual isolative the 0∼10 V direct-current analogue output and the CENTRONICS standard digital output, and the alarm relay contact output. Theses intelligent type sodium instrumentations are suitable particularly for the instrument, control and protective systems of LMFBR by means of these excellent functions based on microprocessor. The basic errors of the intelligent type sodium flowmeter, immersed sodium flowmeter, sodium manometer and sodium level gauge are +-2%, +-2.3%, +-0.3% and +-1.9% of measuring ranges respectively. (9 figs.)

  8. Emotional intelligence and locus of control of adult patients with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-03-15

    Mar 15, 2011 ... Keywords: breast cancer, treatment, positive psychology, emotional intelligence, locus of control ... branches are organised in a hierarchy with perception of ..... Asian. Development Bank Knowledge Solutions [serial online].

  9. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  10. Computational intelligence in nuclear engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, Robert E.; Hines, J. Wesley

    2005-01-01

    Approaches to several recent issues in the operation of nuclear power plants using computational intelligence are discussed. These issues include 1) noise analysis techniques, 2) on-line monitoring and sensor validation, 3) regularization of ill-posed surveillance and diagnostic measurements, 4) transient identification, 5) artificial intelligence-based core monitoring and diagnostic system, 6) continuous efficiency improvement of nuclear power plants, and 7) autonomous anticipatory control and intelligent-agents. Several Changes to the focus of Computational Intelligence in Nuclear Engineering have occurred in the past few years. With earlier activities focusing on the development of condition monitoring and diagnostic techniques for current nuclear power plants, recent activities have focused on the implementation of those methods and the development of methods for next generation plants and space reactors. These advanced techniques are expected to become increasingly important as current generation nuclear power plants have their licenses extended to 60 years and next generation reactors are being designed to operate for extended fuel cycles (up to 25 years), with less operator oversight, and especially for nuclear plants operating in severe environments such as space or ice-bound locations

  11. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  12. Facilitating and Dealing with Learner Differences in the Online Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, Donovan A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the challenges faced by teachers and educators in the online classroom, especially in light of existing learner differences among students stemming from intelligence, socioeconomic status (SES), culture, gender, among other factors. The author examines the characteristics of the online classroom and looks at learner differences…

  13. Development of 3D online contact measurement system for intelligent manufacturing based on stereo vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peng; Chong, Wenyan; Ma, Yongjun

    2017-10-01

    In order to avoid shortcomings of low efficiency and restricted measuring range exsited in traditional 3D on-line contact measurement method for workpiece size, the development of a novel 3D contact measurement system is introduced, which is designed for intelligent manufacturing based on stereo vision. The developed contact measurement system is characterized with an intergarted use of a handy probe, a binocular stereo vision system, and advanced measurement software.The handy probe consists of six track markers, a touch probe and the associated elcetronics. In the process of contact measurement, the hand probe can be located by the use of the stereo vision system and track markers, and 3D coordinates of a space point on the workpiece can be mearsured by calculating the tip position of a touch probe. With the flexibility of the hand probe, the orientation, range, density of the 3D contact measurenent can be adptable to different needs. Applications of the developed contact measurement system to high-precision measurement and rapid surface digitization are experimentally demonstrated.

  14. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Intelligent e-Learning Systems: An Educational Paradigm Shift

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suman Bhattacharya

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Learning is the long process of transforming information as well as experience into knowledge, skills, attitude and behaviors. To make up the wide gap between the demand of increasing higher education and comparatively limited resources, more and more educational institutes are looking into instructional technology. Use of online resources not only reduces the cost of education but also meet the needs of society. Intelligent e-learning has become one of the important channels to reach out to students exceeding geographic boundaries. Besides this, the characteristics of e-learning have complicated the process of education, and have brought challenges to both instructors and students. This paper will focus on the discussion of different discipline of intelligent e-learning like scaffolding based e-learning, personalized e-learning, confidence based e-learning, intelligent tutoring system, etc. to illuminate the educational paradigm shift in intelligent e-learning system.

  16. Rancang Bangun Sistem Business Intelligence Universitas Sebagai Pendukung Pengambilan Keputusan Akademik

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainal Arifin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sistem business intelligence universitas dimulai dengan tahapan integrasi data, analisis data, membuat laporan dan membuatweb portal dan kemudian mengitegrasikan laporan tersebut dengan web portal. Analisis data diolah dengan OLAP, KPI dandata mining untuk mengekstrak informasi dari data yang tersimpan didalam data warehouse. Hasil proses analisis datatersebut di representasikan dalam bentuk laporan statistik dan dashboard, kemudian digunakan sebagai pendukungpengambilan keputusan akademik. Penelitian ini bertujuan merancang bangun sistem business intelligence universitassebagai pendukung pengambilan keputusan akademik pada Universitas Mulawarman berbasis web dengan OLAP. Penelitianini menghasilkan kerangka sistem dan web portal sistem business intelligence universitas yang diakses melalui browsersecara online. Business Intelligence dapat digunakan sebagai solusi untuk mempertimbangkan proses pengambilan keputusandalam pengelolaan universitas dan solusi dalam peningkatan kinerja pengelolaan akademik untuk mencapai keunggulanakademik.Kata kunci : Business Intelligence; Data warehouse; OLAP; KPI; Data mining

  17. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  18. Epidemic mitigation via awareness propagation in communication networks: the role of time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huijuan; Chen, Chuyi; Qu, Bo; Li, Daqing; Havlin, Shlomo

    2017-07-01

    The participation of individuals in multi-layer networks allows for feedback between network layers, opening new possibilities to mitigate epidemic spreading. For instance, the spread of a biological disease such as Ebola in a physical contact network may trigger the propagation of the information related to this disease in a communication network, e.g. an online social network. The information propagated in the communication network may increase the awareness of some individuals, resulting in them avoiding contact with their infected neighbors in the physical contact network, which might protect the population from the infection. In this work, we aim to understand how the time scale γ of the information propagation (speed that information is spread and forgotten) in the communication network relative to that of the epidemic spread (speed that an epidemic is spread and cured) in the physical contact network influences such mitigation using awareness information. We begin by proposing a model of the interaction between information propagation and epidemic spread, taking into account the relative time scale γ. We analytically derive the average fraction of infected nodes in the meta-stable state for this model (i) by developing an individual-based mean-field approximation (IBMFA) method and (ii) by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA). We show that when the time scale γ of the information spread relative to the epidemic spread is large, our IBMFA approximation is better compared to MMCA near the epidemic threshold, whereas MMCA performs better when the prevalence of the epidemic is high. Furthermore, we find that an optimal mitigation exists that leads to a minimal fraction of infected nodes. The optimal mitigation is achieved at a non-trivial relative time scale γ, which depends on the rate at which an infected individual becomes aware. Contrary to our intuition, information spread too fast in the communication network could reduce the

  19. Gender Differences in the Relationship between Emotional Intelligence and Right Hemisphere Lateralization for Facial Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Schilo, Laura; Kee, Daniel W.

    2010-01-01

    The present study examined relationships between emotional intelligence, measured by the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, and right hemisphere dominance for a free vision chimeric face test. A sample of 122 ethnically diverse college students participated and completed online versions of the forenamed tests. A hierarchical…

  20. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  1. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  2. A Model of Intelligent Fault Diagnosis of Power Equipment Based on CBR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays the demand of power supply reliability has been strongly increased as the development within power industry grows rapidly. Nevertheless such large demand requires substantial power grid to sustain. Therefore power equipment’s running and testing data which contains vast information underpins online monitoring and fault diagnosis to finally achieve state maintenance. In this paper, an intelligent fault diagnosis model for power equipment based on case-based reasoning (IFDCBR will be proposed. The model intends to discover the potential rules of equipment fault by data mining. The intelligent model constructs a condition case base of equipment by analyzing the following four categories of data: online recording data, history data, basic test data, and environmental data. SVM regression analysis was also applied in mining the case base so as to further establish the equipment condition fingerprint. The running data of equipment can be diagnosed by such condition fingerprint to detect whether there is a fault or not. Finally, this paper verifies the intelligent model and three-ratio method based on a set of practical data. The resulting research demonstrates that this intelligent model is more effective and accurate in fault diagnosis.

  3. Semi-non-intrusive objective intelligibility measure using spatial filtering in hearing aids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Charlotte; Boldt, Jesper Bünsow; Gran, Frederik

    2016-01-01

    -intrusive metrics have not been able to achieve acceptable intelligibility predictions. This paper presents a new semi-non-intrusive intelligibility measure based on an existing intrusive measure, STOI, where an estimate of the clean speech is extracted using spatial filtering in the hearing aid. The results......Reliable non-intrusive online assessment of speech intelligibility can play a key role for the functioning of hearing aids, e.g. as guidance for adjusting the hearing aid settings to the environment. While existing intrusive metrics can provide a precise and reliable measure, the current non...

  4. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

  5. On-line Configuration of Network Emulator for Intelligent Energy System Testbed Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kemal, Mohammed Seifu; Iov, Florin; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein

    2015-01-01

    Intelligent energy networks (or Smart Grids) provide efficient solutions for a grid integrated with near-real-time communication technologies between various grid assets in power generation, transmission and distribution systems. The design of a communication network associated with intelligent...... power system involves detailed analysis of its communication requirements, a proposal of the appropriate protocol architecture, the choice of appropriate communication technologies for each case study, and a means to support heterogeneous communication technology management system. This paper discuses...

  6. Traffic control and intelligent vehicle highway systems: a survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baskar, L.D.; Schutter, B. de; Hellendoorn, J.; Papp, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Traffic congestion in highway networks is one of the main issues to be addressed by today's traffic management schemes. Automation combined with the increasing market penetration of on-line communication, navigation and advanced driver assistance systems will ultimately result in intelligent vehicle

  7. Personality traits and life satisfaction among online game players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lily Shui-Lien; Tu, Hill Hung-Jen; Wang, Edward Shih-Tse

    2008-04-01

    The DFC Intelligence predicts worldwide online game revenues will reach $9.8 billion by 2009, making online gaming a mainstream recreational activity. Understanding online game player personality traits is therefore important. This study researches the relationship between personality traits and life satisfaction in online game players. Taipei, Taiwan, is the study location, with questionnaire surveys conducted in cyber cafe shops. Multiple regression analysis studies the causal relationship between personality traits and life satisfaction in online game players. The result shows that neuroticism has significant negative influence on life satisfaction. Both openness and conscientiousness have significant positive influence on life satisfaction. Finally, implications for leisure practice and further research are discussed.

  8. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  9. Financial Intelligence and the Quality of Higher Education in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Financial Intelligence and the Quality of Higher Education in Africa. ... Improving the quality of curriculum development in private Universities in Africa from time to time is a task that is very essential to achieving ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  10. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  11. Tracking social contact networks with online respondent-driven detection : who recruits whom?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, Mart L.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.; Buskens, V.W.; van Steenbergen, Jim E.; Bengtsson, Linus; Koppeschaar, Carl E.; Thorson, Anna E.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. E.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Transmission of respiratory pathogens in a population depends on the contact network patterns of individuals. To accurately understand and explain epidemic behaviour information on contact networks is required, but only limited empirical data is available. Online respondent-driven

  12. Tracking social contact networks with online respondent-driven detection : who recruits whom?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, Mart L; van der Heijden, Peter G M; Buskens, Vincent; van Steenbergen, Jim E; Bengtsson, Linus; Koppeschaar, Carl E; Thorson, Anna; Kretzschmar, MEE

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Transmission of respiratory pathogens in a population depends on the contact network patterns of individuals. To accurately understand and explain epidemic behaviour information on contact networks is required, but only limited empirical data is available. Online respondent-driven

  13. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  14. Emotional Intelligence as a Determinant of Readiness for Online Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdar, Muhammad Ayub; Ali, Akhtar; Tariq, Riaz Ul Haq

    2016-01-01

    Students' performance in online learning environments is associated with their readiness to adopt a digital learning approach. Traditional concept of readiness for online learning is connected with students' competencies of using technology for learning purposes. We in this research, however, investigated psychometric aspects of students'…

  15. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  16. An intelligent detecting system for permeability prediction of MBR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Honggui; Zhang, Shuo; Qiao, Junfei; Wang, Xiaoshuang

    2018-01-01

    The membrane bioreactor (MBR) has been widely used to purify wastewater in wastewater treatment plants. However, a critical difficulty of the MBR is membrane fouling. To reduce membrane fouling, in this work, an intelligent detecting system is developed to evaluate the performance of MBR by predicting the membrane permeability. This intelligent detecting system consists of two main parts. First, a soft computing method, based on the partial least squares method and the recurrent fuzzy neural network, is designed to find the nonlinear relations between the membrane permeability and the other variables. Second, a complete new platform connecting the sensors and the software is built, in order to enable the intelligent detecting system to handle complex algorithms. Finally, the simulation and experimental results demonstrate the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed intelligent detecting system, underlying the potential of this system for the online membrane permeability for detecting membrane fouling of MBR.

  17. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  18. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Polanco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010 taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

  19. Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

    2013-01-01

    A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

  20. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  1. An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Transient Stability Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Akella, Vijay Ahaskar; Khincha, HP; Kumar, Sreerama R

    1991-01-01

    An artificial intelligence approach to online transient stability assessment is briefly discussed, and some crucial requirements for this algorithm are identified. Solutions to these are proposed. Some new attributes are suggested so as to reflect machine dynamics and changes in the network. Also a new representative learning set algorithm has been developed.

  2. Como obter vantagem competitiva utilizando business intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avanilde Kemczinski

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to define Business Intelligence and to identify the information and communication technologies that support to this type of information system. A context is made about the concept and typologies of information systems (IS. Data Warehouse, Data Mart and Data Mining are the technological resources of Back-end system, used to store important data and to extract patterns of behavior and tendencies of the organizational processes. DSS (Decision Support Systems, EIS (Executive Information Systems and OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing tools are Front-end systems for Business Intelligence solutions. Through these systems the user transforms the information in strategic knowledge for the obtaining competitive advantages.

  3. Relationship between Social Networks Adoption and Social Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunduz, Semseddin

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to set forth the relationship between the individuals' states to adopt social networks and social intelligence and analyze both concepts according to various variables. Research data were collected from 1145 social network users in the online media by using the Adoption of Social Network Scale and Social Intelligence…

  4. Exploring the relationship between video game expertise and fluid intelligence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios V Kokkinakis

    Full Text Available Hundreds of millions of people play intellectually-demanding video games every day. What does individual performance on these games tell us about cognition? Here, we describe two studies that examine the potential link between intelligence and performance in one of the most popular video games genres in the world (Multiplayer Online Battle Arenas: MOBAs. In the first study, we show that performance in the popular MOBA League of Legends' correlates with fluid intelligence as measured under controlled laboratory conditions. In the second study, we also show that the age profile of performance in the two most widely-played MOBAs (League of Legends and DOTA II matches that of raw fluid intelligence. We discuss and extend previous videogame literature on intelligence and videogames and suggest that commercial video games can be useful as 'proxy' tests of cognitive performance at a global population level.

  5. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  6. Intelligent Routines

    CERN Document Server

    Anastassiou, George A

    “Intelligent Routines II: Solving Linear Algebra and Differential Geometry with Sage” contains numerous of examples and problems as well as many unsolved problems. This book extensively applies the successful software Sage, which can be found free online http://www.sagemath.org/. Sage is a recent and popular software for mathematical computation, available freely and simple to use. This book is useful to all applied scientists in mathematics, statistics and engineering, as well for late undergraduate and graduate students of above subjects. It is the first such book in solving symbolically with Sage problems in Linear Algebra and Differential Geometry. Plenty of SAGE applications are given at each step of the exposition.

  7. INTELLIGENT TUTORING SYSTEM FOR DISTANCE EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Dutra de Oliveira Neto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop and implement a tool called intelligent tutoring system in an online course to help a formative evaluation in order to improve student learning. According to Bloom et al. (1971,117 formative evaluation is a systematic evaluation to improve the process of teaching and learning. The intelligent tutoring system may provides a timely and high quality feedback that not only inform the correctness of the solution to the problem, but also informs the students about the accuracy of the response relative to their current knowledge about the solution. Constructive and supportive feedback should be given to the students to reveal the right and wrong answers immediately after taking the test. A feedback about the right answers is a form to reinforce positive behaviors. Identifying possible errors and relating them to the instruction material may help student to strengthen the content under consideration. The remedial suggestion should be given for each answer with detailed prescription with regards the materials and instructional procedures before taking next step. The main idea is to inform the students what he has learned and what he still has to learn. The open-source LMS called Moodle™ was extended to accomplish the formative evaluation, high-quality feedback, and communal knowledge presented here with a short online financial math course that is being offered at a large University in Brazil. The preliminary results shows that the intelligent tutoring system using high quality feedback helped the students to improve their knowledge about the solution to the problems based on the errors of their past cohorts. The results and suggestion for future work are presented and discussed.

  8. Online plagiarism training falls short in biology classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Emily A; Fagerheim, Britt; Durham, Susan

    2014-01-01

    Online plagiarism tutorials are increasingly popular in higher education, as faculty and staff try to curb the plagiarism epidemic. Yet no research has validated the efficacy of such tools in minimizing plagiarism in the sciences. Our study compared three plagiarism-avoidance training regimens (i.e., no training, online tutorial, or homework assignment) and their impacts on students' ability to accurately discriminate plagiarism from text that is properly quoted, paraphrased, and attributed. Using pre- and postsurveys of 173 undergraduate students in three general ecology courses, we found that students given the homework assignment had far greater success in identifying plagiarism or the lack thereof compared with students given no training. In general, students trained with the homework assignment more successfully identified plagiarism than did students trained with the online tutorial. We also found that the summative assessment associated with the plagiarism-avoidance training formats (i.e., homework grade and online tutorial assessment score) did not correlate with student improvement on surveys through time.

  9. Online Plagiarism Training Falls Short in Biology Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Emily A.; Fagerheim, Britt; Durham, Susan

    2014-01-01

    Online plagiarism tutorials are increasingly popular in higher education, as faculty and staff try to curb the plagiarism epidemic. Yet no research has validated the efficacy of such tools in minimizing plagiarism in the sciences. Our study compared three plagiarism-avoidance training regimens (i.e., no training, online tutorial, or homework assignment) and their impacts on students’ ability to accurately discriminate plagiarism from text that is properly quoted, paraphrased, and attributed. Using pre- and postsurveys of 173 undergraduate students in three general ecology courses, we found that students given the homework assignment had far greater success in identifying plagiarism or the lack thereof compared with students given no training. In general, students trained with the homework assignment more successfully identified plagiarism than did students trained with the online tutorial. We also found that the summative assessment associated with the plagiarism-avoidance training formats (i.e., homework grade and online tutorial assessment score) did not correlate with student improvement on surveys through time. PMID:24591507

  10. Intelligent PID controller based on ant system algorithm and fuzzy inference and its application to bionic artificial leg

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭冠政; 曾庆冬; 李文斌

    2004-01-01

    A designing method of intelligent proportional-integral-derivative(PID) controllers was proposed based on the ant system algorithm and fuzzy inference. This kind of controller is called Fuzzy-ant system PID controller. It consists of an off-line part and an on-line part. In the off-line part, for a given control system with a PID controller,by taking the overshoot, setting time and steady-state error of the system unit step response as the performance indexes and by using the ant system algorithm, a group of optimal PID parameters K*p , Ti* and T*d can be obtained, which are used as the initial values for the on-line tuning of PID parameters. In the on-line part, based on Kp* , Ti*and Td* and according to the current system error e and its time derivative, a specific program is written, which is used to optimize and adjust the PID parameters on-line through a fuzzy inference mechanism to ensure that the system response has optimal transient and steady-state performance. This kind of intelligent PID controller can be used to control the motor of the intelligent bionic artificial leg designed by the authors. The result of computer simulation experiment shows that the controller has less overshoot and shorter setting time.

  11. Tomorrow's energy needs require intelligent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsch, R.

    1998-01-01

    With the European wide move towards increased competition and greater deregulation of the energy industry, has come a thrust for greater efficiency and understanding customer needs and external constraints such as the environment. This, in turn, has led to solutions which take advantage of the tremendous developments in information technology and on-line control systems which are described in this paper. Topics include intelligent networks, decentralised energy supplies and decentralised energy management. (UK)

  12. iES - An Intelligent Electronic Sales Platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanton, V L; Korbe III, W; Gao, J G

    2003-10-02

    Current e-commerce systems support online shopping based on electronic product catalogs. The major issues associated with catalog-based commerce systems are: difficulty in distinguishing one retailer from another, complex navigation with confusing links, and a lack of personalized service. This paper reports an intelligent solution to address these issues. Our solution will provide a more personalized sales experience through the use of a transaction-based knowledge model that includes both the rules used for reasoning as well as the corresponding actions. Based on this solution, we have developed an intelligent electronic sales platform that is supported by a framework which provides the desired personalization as well as extensibility and customization capabilities. This paper reports our design and development of this system and application examples.

  13. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  14. Intelligence in Artificial Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Datta, Shoumen Palit Austin

    2016-01-01

    The elusive quest for intelligence in artificial intelligence prompts us to consider that instituting human-level intelligence in systems may be (still) in the realm of utopia. In about a quarter century, we have witnessed the winter of AI (1990) being transformed and transported to the zenith of tabloid fodder about AI (2015). The discussion at hand is about the elements that constitute the canonical idea of intelligence. The delivery of intelligence as a pay-per-use-service, popping out of ...

  15. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  16. Online multiple intelligence teaching tools (On-MITT) for enhancing interpersonal teaching activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Siti Nurul Mahfuzah; Salam, Sazilah; Bakar, Norasiken; Sui, Linda Khoo Mei

    2014-07-01

    The theories of Multiple Intelligence (MI) used in this paper apply to students with interpersonal intelligence who is encouraged to work together in cooperative groups where interpersonal interaction is practiced. In this context, students used their knowledge and skills to help the group or partner to complete the tasks given. Students can interact with each other as they learn and the process of learning requires their verbal and non-verbal communication skills, co-operation and empathy in the group. Meanwhile educators can incorporate cooperative learning in groups in the classroom. On-MITT provides various tools to facilitate lecturers in preparing e-content that applies interpersonal intelligence. With minimal knowledge of Information and Technology (IT) skills, educators can produce creative and interesting teaching activities and teaching materials. The objective of this paper is to develop On-MITT prototype for interpersonal teaching activities. This paper addressed initial prototype of this study. An evaluation of On-MITT has been completed by 20 lecturers of Malaysian Polytechnics. Motivation Survey Questionnaire is used as the instrument to measure four motivation variables: ease of use, enjoyment, usefulness and self-confidence. Based on the findings, the On-MITT can facilitate educators to prepare teaching materials that are compatible for interpersonal learner.

  17. PowerPivot for Business Intelligence Using Excel and SharePoint

    CERN Document Server

    Ralston, Barry

    2011-01-01

    PowerPivot comprises a set of technologies for easy access to data mining and business intelligence analysis from Microsoft Excel and SharePoint. Power users and developers alike can create sophisticated, online analytic processing (OLAP) solutions using PowerPivot for Excel, and then share those solutions with other users via PowerPivot for SharePoint. Data can be pulled in from any of the leading database platforms, as well as from spreadsheets and flat files. PowerPivot for Business Intelligence Using Excel and SharePoint is your key to mastering PowerPivot. The book takes a scenario-based

  18. Complexity, Competitive Intelligence and the "First Mover" Advantage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellman, Philip Vos; Post, Jonathan Vos

    In the following paper we explore some of the ways in which competitive intelligence and game theory can be employed to assist firms in deciding whether or not to undertake international market diversification and whether or not there is an advantage to being a market leader or a market follower overseas. In attempting to answer these questions, we take a somewhat unconventional approach. We first examine how some of the most recent advances in the physical and biological sciences can contribute to the ways in which we understand how firms behave. Subsequently, we propose a formal methodology for competitive intelligence. While space considerations here do not allow for a complete game-theoretic treatment of competitive intelligence and its use with respect to understanding first and second mover advantage in firm internationalization, that treatment can be found in its entirety in the on-line proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Complex Systems at http://knowledgetoday.org/wiki/indec.php/ICCS06/89

  19. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  20. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  1. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  2. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  3. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Business Intelligence in Process Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopčeková, Alena; Kopček, Michal; Tanuška, Pavol

    2013-12-01

    The Business Intelligence technology, which represents a strong tool not only for decision making support, but also has a big potential in other fields of application, is discussed in this paper. Necessary fundamental definitions are offered and explained to better understand the basic principles and the role of this technology for company management. Article is logically divided into five main parts. In the first part, there is the definition of the technology and the list of main advantages. In the second part, an overview of the system architecture with the brief description of separate building blocks is presented. Also, the hierarchical nature of the system architecture is shown. The technology life cycle consisting of four steps, which are mutually interconnected into a ring, is described in the third part. In the fourth part, analytical methods incorporated in the online analytical processing and data mining used within the business intelligence as well as the related data mining methodologies are summarised. Also, some typical applications of the above-mentioned particular methods are introduced. In the final part, a proposal of the knowledge discovery system for hierarchical process control is outlined. The focus of this paper is to provide a comprehensive view and to familiarize the reader with the Business Intelligence technology and its utilisation.

  5. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  6. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  7. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  8. Artificial Intelligence and Moral intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Laura Pana

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the thesis that the implementation of a moral code in the behaviour of artificial intelligent systems needs a specific form of human and artificial intelligence, not just an abstract intelligence. We present intelligence as a system with an internal structure and the structural levels of the moral system, as well as certain characteristics of artificial intelligent agents which can/must be treated as 1- individual entities (with a complex, specialized, autonomous or selfdetermined,...

  9. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  10. An adaptive signal-processing approach to online adaptive tutoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergeron, Bryan; Cline, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    Conventional intelligent or adaptive tutoring online systems rely on domain-specific models of learner behavior based on rules, deep domain knowledge, and other resource-intensive methods. We have developed and studied a domain-independent methodology of adaptive tutoring based on domain-independent signal-processing approaches that obviate the need for the construction of explicit expert and student models. A key advantage of our method over conventional approaches is a lower barrier to entry for educators who want to develop adaptive online learning materials.

  11. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  12. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  13. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  14. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  15. Intelligence Naturelle et Intelligence Artificielle

    OpenAIRE

    Dubois, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Cet article présente une approche systémique du concept d’intelligence naturelle en ayant pour objectif de créer une intelligence artificielle. Ainsi, l’intelligence naturelle, humaine et animale non-humaine, est une fonction composée de facultés permettant de connaître et de comprendre. De plus, l'intelligence naturelle reste indissociable de la structure, à savoir les organes du cerveau et du corps. La tentation est grande de doter les systèmes informatiques d’une intelligence artificielle ...

  16. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  17. MOOCs and the AI-Stanford Like Courses: Two Successful and Distinct Course Formats for Massive Open Online Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, C. Osvaldo

    2012-01-01

    Open online courses (OOC) with a massive number of students have represented an important development for online education in the past years. A course on artificial intelligence, CS221, at the University of Stanford was offered in the fall of 2011 free and online which attracted 160,000 registered students. It was one of three offered as an…

  18. Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

    2013-07-01

    Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

  19. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  1. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  2. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  3. Greenhouse intelligent control system based on microcontroller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Congwei

    2018-04-01

    As one of the hallmarks of agricultural modernization, intelligent greenhouse has the advantages of high yield, excellent quality, no pollution and continuous planting. Taking AT89S52 microcontroller as the main controller, the greenhouse intelligent control system uses soil moisture sensor, temperature and humidity sensors, light intensity sensor and CO2 concentration sensor to collect measurements and display them on the 12864 LCD screen real-time. Meantime, climate parameter values can be manually set online. The collected measured values are compared with the set standard values, and then the lighting, ventilation fans, warming lamps, water pumps and other facilities automatically start to adjust the climate such as light intensity, CO2 concentration, temperature, air humidity and soil moisture of the greenhouse parameter. So, the state of the environment in the greenhouse Stabilizes and the crop grows in a suitable environment.

  4. Social networks a framework of computational intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    This volume provides the audience with an updated, in-depth and highly coherent material on the conceptually appealing and practically sound information technology of Computational Intelligence applied to the analysis, synthesis and evaluation of social networks. The volume involves studies devoted to key issues of social networks including community structure detection in networks, online social networks, knowledge growth and evaluation, and diversity of collaboration mechanisms.  The book engages a wealth of methods of Computational Intelligence along with well-known techniques of linear programming, Formal Concept Analysis, machine learning, and agent modeling.  Human-centricity is of paramount relevance and this facet manifests in many ways including personalized semantics, trust metric, and personal knowledge management; just to highlight a few of these aspects. The contributors to this volume report on various essential applications including cyber attacks detection, building enterprise social network...

  5. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  6. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  7. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  8. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  9. An epidemic model of rumor diffusion in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun-Jun; Liu, Yun; Shen, Bo; Yuan, Wei-Guo

    2013-01-01

    So far, in some standard rumor spreading models, the transition probability from ignorants to spreaders is always treated as a constant. However, from a practical perspective, the case that individual whether or not be infected by the neighbor spreader greatly depends on the trustiness of ties between them. In order to solve this problem, we introduce a stochastic epidemic model of the rumor diffusion, in which the infectious probability is defined as a function of the strength of ties. Moreover, we investigate numerically the behavior of the model on a real scale-free social site with the exponent γ = 2.2. We verify that the strength of ties plays a critical role in the rumor diffusion process. Specially, selecting weak ties preferentially cannot make rumor spread faster and wider, but the efficiency of diffusion will be greatly affected after removing them. Another significant finding is that the maximum number of spreaders max( S) is very sensitive to the immune probability μ and the decay probability v. We show that a smaller μ or v leads to a larger spreading of the rumor, and their relationships can be described as the function ln(max( S)) = Av + B, in which the intercept B and the slope A can be fitted perfectly as power-law functions of μ. Our findings may offer some useful insights, helping guide the application in practice and reduce the damage brought by the rumor.

  10. Intelligent control for PMSM based on online PSO considering parameters change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zhengqiang; Yang, Huiling

    2018-03-01

    A novel online particle swarm optimization method is proposed to design speed and current controllers of vector controlled interior permanent magnet synchronous motor drives considering stator resistance variation. In the proposed drive system, the space vector modulation technique is employed to generate the switching signals for a two-level voltage-source inverter. The nonlinearity of the inverter is also taken into account due to the dead-time, threshold and voltage drop of the switching devices in order to simulate the system in the practical condition. Speed and PI current controller gains are optimized with PSO online, and the fitness function is changed according to the system dynamic and steady states. The proposed optimization algorithm is compared with conventional PI control method in the condition of step speed change and stator resistance variation, showing that the proposed online optimization method has better robustness and dynamic characteristics compared with conventional PI controller design.

  11. Online Academic Networks as Knowledge Brokers: The Mediating Role of Organizational Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena-Mădălina Vătămănescu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Placing online academic networks in the framework of social, cultural and institutional “deterritorialization,” the current paper aims at investigating the functionality of these new forms of transnational and trans-organizational aggregations as knowledge brokers. The emphasis is laid on the influence of human collective intelligence and consistent knowledge flows on research innovation, considering the role of organizational support within higher education systems. In this respect, the research relied on a questionnaire-based survey with 140 academics from European emerging countries, the data collected being processed via a partial least squares structural equation modelling technique. Evidence was brought that, as knowledge brokers, online academic networks are systems aimed to support the access to human collective intelligence and consistent knowledge flows which exert a positive influence on research innovation, both directly and indirectly, by means of formal and informal organizational support. As facilitators of collaborative environments for individuals with specialized knowledge, competence, expertise and experience, online academic networks have set themselves up as an agora for academics worldwide and as an outlet for their acumen and literacy.

  12. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  13. SmartWeld/SmartProcess - intelligent model based system for the design and validation of welding processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchner, J.

    1996-04-01

    Diagrams are presented on an intelligent model based system for the design and validation of welding processes. Key capabilities identified include `right the first time` manufacturing, continuous improvement, and on-line quality assurance.

  14. Como obter vantagem competitiva utilizando business intelligence?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avanilde Kemczinski

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo tem por objetivo definir Business Intelligence e identificar as tecnologias de informação e comunicação que dão suporte a este tipo de sistema de informação. Faz-se uma contextualização sobre o conceito e as tipologias de sistemas de informação (SI. Data Warehouse, Data Mart e Data Mining são os recursos tecnológicos denominados de Back-end system, utilizados para armazenar dados relevantes e extrair padrões de comportamento e tendências dos processos organizacionais. Os DSS (Decision Support Systems, EIS (Executive Information Systems e ferramentas de OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing são caracterizados como Front-end systems para os sistemas de Business Intelligence, requerendo-se ampla funcionalidade, flexibilidade e usabilidade para que o usuário possa fazer a transformação das informações em conhecimento estratégico que apóie a tomada de decisão organizacional, objetivando a vantagem competitiva. Palavras-chave: Sistemas de Informação, Business Intelligence, Data Mining, Data Warehouse, OLAP.

  15. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  16. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  17. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

  18. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  19. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE IN DECISION MAKING ON THE LABOR MARKET OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina GLOBA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Implementation of the business intelligence concept is enabling new opportunities for the labor market research and management. Labor market intelligence means a competent decision making process in the labor market. Such process should be based on the comprehensive set of analytical technologies and tools. The analysis of online information available at websites of state organizations working in the labor market of the Republic of Moldova has shown that many them are still at the very beginning of the effective data using.

  20. Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

    2018-03-20

    Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of

  1. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  2. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  3. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  5. BOOK REVIEW INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS FOR E-LEARNING Enhancing Security and Trustworthiness in Online Learning Systems Written by Jorge Miguel, Santi Caballe, and Fatos Xhafa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilal Seda YILDIZ AYBEK

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of Internet technologies, various paradigms of learning can be adapted to e-learning environments. One of these paradigms, Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL, can be presented to learners through web-based systems such as LMS while incorporating peer-to-peer (P2P learning, measurement, and evaluation strategies. In this book titled Intelligent Data Analysis for e-Learning Enhancing Security and Trustworthiness in Online Learning Systems, various strategies and applications are presented to ensure trustworthiness in e-learning environments, especially where the CSCL paradigm is adopted. A comprehensive literature review on student security, privacy, and trustworthiness has been presented in a very detailed and comprehensive way. This allowed readers to conceptually prepare for detailed applications in the later parts of the book and case studies at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. In addition to the applications that are presented in detail, the approaches and techniques such as Learning Analytics, Educational Data Mining, distributed computing, and massive data processing are shared through detailed applications of how to adapt to the measurement and evaluation applications offered in online learning environments in the context of trustworthiness.

  6. Analisis Data Penjualan Perusahaan Detergen XYZ dengan Aplikasi Zoho Reporting Menggunakan Metode OLAP (Online Analytycal Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricky Akbar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Sales Channel atau saluran penjualan merupakan salah satu hal yang harus diperhatikan oleh perusahaan. Sales channel yang beragam memungkin perusahaan untuk memperbesar keuntungan mereka, sales channel online misalnya dengan sales channel ini perusahaan dapat memperluas lokasi pemasaran keseluruh negara-negara di dunia. Perusahaan yang memiliki sales channel yang banyak dan memproduksi barang yang biasa digunakan sehari-hari, memiliki data pelanggan yang sangat besar diberbagai belahan dunia. Prediksi jumlah penjualan produk di masing-masing negara berdasarkan sales channel yang digunkan perusahaan merupakan Business Intelligence (BI yang sangat penting untuk melihat negara mana yang berpotensi memberikan pelanggan yang besar untuk penjualan produk perusahaan. Dari penelitian dengan menggunakan metode OLAP (Online Analytical Processing dan aplikasi Zoho Reporting, dapat membantu pihak pengambil keputusan dalam menemukan pelanggan dari negara mana yang nantinya berpotensi memberikan keuntungan besar bagi perusahaan. Kata kunci— business intelligence, online analytical processing, sales channel, prediksi.

  7. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  8. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  9. Epidemic model for information diffusion in web forums: experiments in marketing exchange and political dialog.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jiyoung; Chen, Hsinchun

    2016-01-01

    As social media has become more prevalent, its influence on business, politics, and society has become significant. Due to easy access and interaction between large numbers of users, information diffuses in an epidemic style on the web. Understanding the mechanisms of information diffusion through these new publication methods is important for political and marketing purposes. Among social media, web forums, where people in online communities disseminate and receive information, provide a good environment for examining information diffusion. In this paper, we model topic diffusion in web forums using the epidemiology model, the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, frequently used in previous research to analyze both disease outbreaks and knowledge diffusion. The model was evaluated on a large longitudinal dataset from the web forum of a major retail company and from a general political discussion forum. The fitting results showed that the SIR model is a plausible model to describe the diffusion process of a topic. This research shows that epidemic models can expand their application areas to topic discussion on the web, particularly social media such as web forums.

  10. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  11. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  12. Enhanced intelligence through optimized TCPED concepts for airborne ISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, M.; Kappes, E.; Böker, D.

    2012-06-01

    Current multinational operations show an increased demand for high quality actionable intelligence for different operational levels and users. In order to achieve sufficient availability, quality and reliability of information, various ISR assets are orchestrated within operational theatres. Especially airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets provide - due to their endurance, non-intrusiveness, robustness, wide spectrum of sensors and flexibility to mission changes - significant intelligence coverage of areas of interest. An efficient and balanced utilization of airborne ISR assets calls for advanced concepts for the entire ISR process framework including the Tasking, Collection, Processing, Exploitation and Dissemination (TCPED). Beyond this, the employment of current visualization concepts, shared information bases and information customer profiles, as well as an adequate combination of ISR sensors with different information age and dynamic (online) retasking process elements provides the optimization of interlinked TCPED processes towards higher process robustness, shorter process duration, more flexibility between ISR missions and, finally, adequate "entry points" for information requirements by operational users and commands. In addition, relevant Trade-offs of distributed and dynamic TCPED processes are examined and future trends are depicted.

  13. Cybervetting internet searches for vetting, investigations, and open-source intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Appel, Edward J

    2014-01-01

    Section I Behavior and TechnologyThe Internet's Potential for Investigators and Intelligence OfficersIntroductionGrowth of Internet UseA Practitioner's PerspectiveThe SearchInternet Posts and the People They ProfileFinding the NeedlesThe Need for SpeedSufficiency of SearchesNotesBehavior OnlineInternet Use GrowthEvolution of Internet UsesPhysical World, Virtual ActivitiesConnections and DisconnectingNotesUse and Abuse: Crime and Mis

  14. Proceedings of the Air Force Forum for Intelligent Tutoring Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-04-01

    Science Air Force Summer Study on Fault Isolation in Air Force Weapons and Support Systems. He is an expert in simulation-oriented computer-based...Tutoring (Collins, 1976.) Reprinted with permission of Lawrence Erlbauni Assoc., Inc., Publishers, ( 1976. It should be clear that understanding natural...Grignetti, M., Hausman , C., & Gould, L. (1975). An intelligent on-line assistant and tutor: NLS-Scholar. In Proceedings of the National Computer

  15. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  16. Intelligent simulations for on-line transient analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassberger, J.A.; Lee, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    A unique combination of simulation, parameter estimation and expert systems technology is applied to the problem of diagnosing nuclear power plant transients. Knowledge-based reasoning is ued to monitor plant data and hypothesize about the status of the plant. Fuzzy logic is employed as the inferencing mechanism and an implication scheme based on observations is developed and employed to handle scenarios involving competing failures. Hypothesis testing is performed by simulating the behavior of faulted components using numerical models. A filter has been developed for systematically adjusting key model parameters to force agreement between simulations and actual plant data. Pattern recognition is employed as a decision analysis technique for choosing among several hypotheses based on simulation results. An artificial Intelligence framework based on a critical functions approach is used to deal with the complexity of a nuclear plant system. Detailed simulation results of various nuclear power plant accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate the performance and robustness properties of the diagnostic algorithm developed. The system is shown to be successful in diagnosing and identifying fault parameters for a normal reactor scram, loss-of-feedwater (LOFW) and small loss-of-coolant (LOCA) transients occurring together in a scenario similar to the accident at Three Mile Island

  17. Online Cable Tester and Rerouter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Mark; Medelius, Pedro

    2012-01-01

    Hardware and algorithms have been developed to transfer electrical power and data connectivity safely, efficiently, and automatically from an identified damaged/defective wire in a cable to an alternate wire path. The combination of online cable testing capabilities, along with intelligent signal rerouting algorithms, allows the user to overcome the inherent difficulty of maintaining system integrity and configuration control, while autonomously rerouting signals and functions without introducing new failure modes. The incorporation of this capability will increase the reliability of systems by ensuring system availability during operations.

  18. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  19. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  20. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  1. Natural Language Processing Of Online Propaganda As A Means Of Passively Monitoring An Adversarial Ideology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    US analysts overwhelmed by pro-ISIS social media , military posts threatened. [Online]. Available: http://www.foxnews. com/politics/2015/05/26/bulletin...warns-us-analysts-overwhelmed-by-pro-isis- social - media -military-posts.html [3] J. Moore. (2015, Feb. 35). Western intelligence services overwhelmed...organizations have effectively leveraged an online presence to influence elections and distance-recruit. The Islamic State has also shown proficiency in

  2. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  3. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  4. Men's harassment behavior in online video games: Personality traits and game factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Wai Yen; Fox, Jesse

    2016-11-01

    Online video games afford co-play and social interaction, often anonymous, among players from around the world. As predicted by the social identity model of deindividuation effects, undesirable behavior is not uncommon in online gaming environments, and online harassment has become a pervasive issue in the gaming community. In this study, we sought to determine what personality traits and game-related variables predicted two types of online aggression in video games: general harassment (e.g., skill-based taunting, insulting others' intelligence) and sexual harassment (e.g., sexist comments, rape threats). Men who play online video games (N = 425) participated in an anonymous online survey. Social dominance orientation and hostile sexism predicted higher levels of both sexual harassment and general harassment in online games. Game involvement and hours of weekly gameplay were additional predictors of general harassment. We discuss implications of online social aggression and online sexual harassment for online gaming. We also apply our findings to the broader understanding of online harassment, cyberaggression, cyberbullying, and other forms of online hostility in computer-mediated communication contexts. Aggr. Behav. 42:513-521, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Price Comparisons on the Internet Based on Computational Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun Woo; Ha, Sung Ho

    2014-01-01

    Information-intensive Web services such as price comparison sites have recently been gaining popularity. However, most users including novice shoppers have difficulty in browsing such sites because of the massive amount of information gathered and the uncertainty surrounding Web environments. Even conventional price comparison sites face various problems, which suggests the necessity of a new approach to address these problems. Therefore, for this study, an intelligent product search system was developed that enables price comparisons for online shoppers in a more effective manner. In particular, the developed system adopts linguistic price ratings based on fuzzy logic to accommodate user-defined price ranges, and personalizes product recommendations based on linguistic product clusters, which help online shoppers find desired items in a convenient manner. PMID:25268901

  6. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  7. A New Dimension of Business Intelligence: Location-based Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Zeljko Panian

    2012-01-01

    Through the course of this paper we define Locationbased Intelligence (LBI) which is outgrowing from process of amalgamation of geolocation and Business Intelligence. Amalgamating geolocation with traditional Business Intelligence (BI) results in a new dimension of BI named Location-based Intelligence. LBI is defined as leveraging unified location information for business intelligence. Collectively, enterprises can transform location data into business intelligence applic...

  8. Validation of the Schutte Self-Report Emotional Intelligence Scale with American College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Xiaopeng; Paulson, Sharon E.

    2018-01-01

    The current study examined the factor structure of the Schutte Self-Report Emotional Intelligence (SSREI) scale with an American college sample (n = 404, 322 females, 88.9% Whites). Data were collected through an online survey, and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to test several proposed factor models from previous studies. The results…

  9. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  10. Intelligence analysis – the royal discipline of Competitive Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    František Bartes

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to propose work methodology for Competitive Intelligence teams in one of the intelligence cycle’s specific area, in the so-called “Intelligence Analysis”. Intelligence Analysis is one of the stages of the Intelligence Cycle in which data from both the primary and secondary research are analyzed. The main result of the effort is the creation of added value for the information collected. Company Competiitve Intelligence, correctly understood and implemented in business practice, is the “forecasting of the future”. That is forecasting about the future, which forms the basis for strategic decisions made by the company’s top management. To implement that requirement in corporate practice, the author perceives Competitive Intelligence as a systemic application discipline. This approach allows him to propose a “Work Plan” for Competitive Intelligence as a fundamental standardized document to steer Competitive Intelligence team activities. The author divides the Competitive Intelligence team work plan into five basic parts. Those parts are derived from the five-stage model of the intelligence cycle, which, in the author’s opinion, is more appropriate for complicated cases of Competitive Intelligence.

  11. Detecting the Online Image of “Average” Restaurants on TripAdvisor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrvoje Jakopović

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Collective intelligence can be interpreted as the actions of individuals that provide collective effects. In online spaces, the more user comments about a matter of discussion, the higher the potential that certain repeated points of view will be used as a story frame. This observation can be a very useful explanation for the value of user comments, reviews and the ratings in the field of public relations. Nowadays, it has become noticeable that many indecisive people who are thinking of buying a product or using a certain service rely on information left by users who already have some kind of experience with the product or service. This information has an effect on decision-making and taking action. In the case of contemporary PR, collective intelligence, facilitated through user comments/reviews, is involved in the image making process. This paper uses the idea of collective intelligence to measure restaurants’ online image, using sentiment analysis to gain insight to users’ attitudes and opinions. Image is interpreted as a short-term outcome of organizational activities that can be identified through individual attitudes and opinions in this study. The author uses sentiment analysis, the use of natural language processing applications, to examine user comments and reviews for restaurants in Dubrovnik rated as “average” on the website TripAdvisor. This paper tests the accuracy of sentiment analysis software, therefore the efficiency of automated sentiment analysis is compared to human sentiment analysis. The results indicate that sentiment analysis tools could be important instruments for the estimation of a positive, negative, or neutral sentiment and detection of organization’s online image.

  12. Gathering International Competitive Intelligence via Online Data Retrieval in the International Marketing Class.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Fred

    A unit on online data retrieval techniques designed for a college course in international marketing is described. The unit is intended to teach students how to compile information on overseas markets and competitors. Online retrieval is seen as a relatively inexpensive means of gathering important data from otherwise inaccessible international…

  13. Spiritual Intelligence, Emotional Intelligence and Auditor’s Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Hanafi, Rustam

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this research was to investigate empirical evidence about influence audi-tor spiritual intelligence on the performance with emotional intelligence as a mediator variable. Linear regression models are developed to examine the hypothesis and path analysis. The de-pendent variable of each model is auditor performance, whereas the independent variable of model 1 is spiritual intelligence, of model 2 are emotional intelligence and spiritual intelligence. The parameters were estima...

  14. Using the Web for Competitive Intelligence (CI) Gathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocker, JoAnne; Roncaglia, George

    2002-01-01

    Businesses use the Internet as a way to communicate company information as a way of engaging their customers. As the use of the Web for business transactions and advertising grows, so too, does the amount of useful information for practitioners of competitive intelligence (CI). CI is the legal and ethical practice of information gathering about competitors and the marketplace. Information sources like company webpages, online newspapers and news organizations, electronic journal articles and reports, and Internet search engines allow CI practitioners analyze company strengths and weaknesses for their customers. More company and marketplace information than ever is available on the Internet and a lot of it is free. Companies should view the Web not only as a business tool but also as a source of competitive intelligence. In a highly competitive marketplace can any organization afford to ignore information about the other players and customers in that same marketplace?

  15. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  16. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  17. Experiments with microcomputer-based artificial intelligence environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, E.G.; MacDonald, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been experimenting with the use of relatively inexpensive microcomputers as artificial intelligence (AI) development environments. Several AI languages are available that perform fairly well on desk-top personal computers, as are low-to-medium cost expert system packages. Although performance of these systems is respectable, their speed and capacity limitations are questionable for serious earth science applications foreseen by the USGS. The most capable artificial intelligence applications currently are concentrated on what is known as the "artificial intelligence computer," and include Xerox D-series, Tektronix 4400 series, Symbolics 3600, VAX, LMI, and Texas Instruments Explorer. The artificial intelligence computer runs expert system shells and Lisp, Prolog, and Smalltalk programming languages. However, these AI environments are expensive. Recently, inexpensive 32-bit hardware has become available for the IBM/AT microcomputer. USGS has acquired and recently completed Beta-testing of the Gold Hill Systems 80386 Hummingboard, which runs Common Lisp on an IBM/AT microcomputer. Hummingboard appears to have the potential to overcome many of the speed/capacity limitations observed with AI-applications on standard personal computers. USGS is a Beta-test site for the Gold Hill Systems GoldWorks expert system. GoldWorks combines some high-end expert system shell capabilities in a medium-cost package. This shell is developed in Common Lisp, runs on the 80386 Hummingboard, and provides some expert system features formerly available only on AI-computers including frame and rule-based reasoning, on-line tutorial, multiple inheritance, and object-programming. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  18. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  19. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  20. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  1. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  2. Online Classrooms: Powerful Tools for Rapid-Iteration Pedagogical Improvements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horodyskyj, L.; Semken, S.; Anbar, A.; Buxner, S.

    2015-11-01

    Online education offers the opportunity to reach a variety of students including non-traditional and geographically diverse students. Research has shown that online courses modeled after traditional lecture-exam courses are ineffective. Over the past three years, Arizona State University developed and offered Habitable Worlds, an online-only astrobiology lab course featuring active learning tools. The course is offered in an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) that records a wealth of student data. In analyzing data from the Fall 2013 offering of the course, we were able to identify pre-post quiz results that were suboptimal and where in the lesson and how precisely students were missing concepts. The problem areas were redesigned, and the improved lessons were deployed a few months later. We saw significant improvements in our pre-post quiz results due to the implemented changes. This demonstrates the effectiveness of using robust ITS not only to present content online, but to provide instantaneous data for rapid iteration and improvement of existing content.

  3. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  4. [Control of intelligent car based on electroencephalogram and neurofeedback].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Song; Xiong, Xin; Fu, Yunfa

    2018-02-01

    To improve the performance of brain-controlled intelligent car based on motor imagery (MI), a method based on neurofeedback (NF) with electroencephalogram (EEG) for controlling intelligent car is proposed. A mental strategy of MI in which the energy column diagram of EEG features related to the mental activity is presented to subjects with visual feedback in real time to train them to quickly master the skills of MI and regulate their EEG activity, and combination of multi-features fusion of MI and multi-classifiers decision were used to control the intelligent car online. The average, maximum and minimum accuracy of identifying instructions achieved by the trained group (trained by the designed feedback system before the experiment) were 85.71%, 90.47% and 76.19%, respectively and the corresponding accuracy achieved by the control group (untrained) were 73.32%, 80.95% and 66.67%, respectively. For the trained group, the average, longest and shortest time consuming were 92 s, 101 s, and 85 s, respectively, while for the control group the corresponding time were 115.7 s, 120 s, and 110 s, respectively. According to the results described above, it is expected that this study may provide a new idea for the follow-up development of brain-controlled intelligent robot by the neurofeedback with EEG related to MI.

  5. Intelligent type sodium level gauge and its graduation calibration facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Daolong; Wang Xuan; Li Xinying; Sun Huiqing; Zhu Jie

    1998-04-01

    The component construction and their performances of the intelligent type sodium level gauge newly-developed and its graduation calibration facility are presented. They can be operated in the temperature limit 100∼550 degree C. Its graduation characteristic calibration test is described. The temperature effect is analyzed. The graduation characteristic equation using the medium temperature as the parameter is given. The calibration errors are analyzed. The measurement system using this sodium level gauge is presented. The tests show that the intelligent type sodium level gauge possesses good linearity. The accurate sodium level measurement data can be obtained by means of its on-line compensation function of the temperature effect. Moreover, it possesses the self-inspection, the electric shutoff protection, the setting of full-scale, the thermocouple breaking alarm, the two upper limits and two lower limits alarms, the standard analog output signal and the digital output signal. Therefore, it is applicable particularly to the instrument, control and protection systems of LMFBR. The basic error of this intelligent type sodium level gauge is +-1.9% of measuring range

  6. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  7. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  8. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  9. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  10. Intelligence analysis – the royal discipline of Competitive Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    František Bartes

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this article is to propose work methodology for Competitive Intelligence teams in one of the intelligence cycle’s specific area, in the so-called “Intelligence Analysis”. Intelligence Analysis is one of the stages of the Intelligence Cycle in which data from both the primary and secondary research are analyzed. The main result of the effort is the creation of added value for the information collected. Company Competiitve Intelligence, correctly understood and implemented in busines...

  11. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  12. The relationship between trait emotional intelligence and interaction with ostracized others' retaliation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozaki, Yuki; Koyasu, Masuo

    2013-01-01

    Regulation of emotions in others is distinct from other activities related to trait emotional intelligence in that only such behavior can directly change other people's psychological states. Although emotional intelligence has generally been associated with prosociality, emotionally intelligent people may manipulate others' behaviors to suit their own interests using high-level capabilities to read and manage the emotions of others. This study investigated how trait emotional intelligence was related to interacting with ostracized others who attempt retaliation. We experimentally manipulated whether two people were simultaneously ostracized or not by using an online ball-tossing game called Cyberball. Eighty university students participated in Cyberball for manipulating ostracism and a "recommendation game," a variation of the ultimatum game for assessing how to interact with others who attempt retaliation, with four participants. After the recommendation game, participants rated their intention to retaliate during the game. People with higher interpersonal emotional intelligence were more likely to recommend that the ostracized other should inhibit retaliation and maximize additional rewards when they have a weaker intention to retaliate. However, they were more likely to recommend that the ostracized other should retaliate against the ostracizers when they have a stronger intention to retaliate. This is the first laboratory study that empirically reveals that people with high interpersonal emotional intelligence influence others' emotions based on their own goals contrary to the general view. Trait emotional intelligence itself is neither positive nor negative, but it can facilitate interpersonal behaviors for achieving goals. Our study offers valuable contributions for the refinement of the trait emotional intelligence concept in the respect of its social function.

  13. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  14. Sense-making for intelligence analysis on social media data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritzkau, Albert

    2016-05-01

    Social networks, in particular online social networks as a subset, enable the analysis of social relationships which are represented by interaction, collaboration, or other sorts of influence between people. Any set of people and their internal social relationships can be modelled as a general social graph. These relationships are formed by exchanging emails, making phone calls, or carrying out a range of other activities that build up the network. This paper presents an overview of current approaches to utilizing social media as a ubiquitous sensor network in the context of national and global security. Exploitation of social media is usually an interdisciplinary endeavour, in which the relevant technologies and methods are identified and linked in order ultimately demonstrate selected applications. Effective and efficient intelligence is usually accomplished in a combined human and computer effort. Indeed, the intelligence process heavily depends on combining a human's flexibility, creativity, and cognitive ability with the bandwidth and processing power of today's computers. To improve the usability and accuracy of the intelligence analysis we will have to rely on data-processing tools at the level of natural language. Especially the collection and transformation of unstructured data into actionable, structured data requires scalable computational algorithms ranging from Artificial Intelligence, via Machine Learning, to Natural Language Processing (NLP). To support intelligence analysis on social media data, social media analytics is concerned with developing and evaluating computational tools and frameworks to collect, monitor, analyze, summarize, and visualize social media data. Analytics methods are employed to extract of significant patterns that might not be obvious. As a result, different data representations rendering distinct aspects of content and interactions serve as a means to adapt the focus of the intelligence analysis to specific information

  15. Automated Critical Test Findings Identification and Online Notification System Using Artificial Intelligence in Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevedello, Luciano M; Erdal, Barbaros S; Ryu, John L; Little, Kevin J; Demirer, Mutlu; Qian, Songyue; White, Richard D

    2017-12-01

    Purpose To evaluate the performance of an artificial intelligence (AI) tool using a deep learning algorithm for detecting hemorrhage, mass effect, or hydrocephalus (HMH) at non-contrast material-enhanced head computed tomographic (CT) examinations and to determine algorithm performance for detection of suspected acute infarct (SAI). Materials and Methods This HIPAA-compliant retrospective study was completed after institutional review board approval. A training and validation dataset of noncontrast-enhanced head CT examinations that comprised 100 examinations of HMH, 22 of SAI, and 124 of noncritical findings was obtained resulting in 2583 representative images. Examinations were processed by using a convolutional neural network (deep learning) using two different window and level configurations (brain window and stroke window). AI algorithm performance was tested on a separate dataset containing 50 examinations with HMH findings, 15 with SAI findings, and 35 with noncritical findings. Results Final algorithm performance for HMH showed 90% (45 of 50) sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78%, 97%) and 85% (68 of 80) specificity (95% CI: 76%, 92%), with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.91 with the brain window. For SAI, the best performance was achieved with the stroke window showing 62% (13 of 21) sensitivity (95% CI: 38%, 82%) and 96% (27 of 28) specificity (95% CI: 82%, 100%), with AUC of 0.81. Conclusion AI using deep learning demonstrates promise for detecting critical findings at noncontrast-enhanced head CT. A dedicated algorithm was required to detect SAI. Detection of SAI showed lower sensitivity in comparison to detection of HMH, but showed reasonable performance. Findings support further investigation of the algorithm in a controlled and prospective clinical setting to determine whether it can independently screen noncontrast-enhanced head CT examinations and notify the interpreting radiologist of critical findings.

  16. Artificial intelligence and process management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epton, J.B.A.

    1989-01-01

    Techniques derived from work in artificial intelligence over the past few decades are beginning to change the approach in applying computers to process management. To explore this new approach and gain real practical experience of its potential a programme of experimental applications was initiated by Sira in collaboration with the process industry. This programme encompassed a family of experimental applications ranging from process monitoring, through supervisory control and troubleshooting to planning and scheduling. The experience gained has led to a number of conclusions regarding the present level of maturity of the technology, the potential for further developments and the measures required to secure the levels of system integrity necessary in on-line applications to critical processes. (author)

  17. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  18. Active Learning for Autonomous Intelligent Agents: Exploration, Curiosity, and Interaction

    OpenAIRE

    Lopes, Manuel; Montesano, Luis

    2014-01-01

    In this survey we present different approaches that allow an intelligent agent to explore autonomous its environment to gather information and learn multiple tasks. Different communities proposed different solutions, that are in many cases, similar and/or complementary. These solutions include active learning, exploration/exploitation, online-learning and social learning. The common aspect of all these approaches is that it is the agent to selects and decides what information to gather next. ...

  19. A UK-wide analysis of trait emotional intelligence within the radiography profession

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, S.J.; Hogg, P.; Cooke, G.; Baker, R.D.; Dawkes, T.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to profile the Trait emotional intelligence (EI) of the radiography profession, explore any differences between subgroups, compare the profession with a normative group and investigate the relationship between EI and the leaders of the profession. An online UK-wide survey was conducted using the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire, a self-report measure. Three main analyses were undertaken to investigate any differences between the sample and population, the radiographer subgroups and the sample and a normative group. The sample had similar characteristics to the population. There were differences between types of radiographer, with nuclear medicine radiographers scoring consistently lower than other groups. There were differences between the leaders and other members of the profession particularly in the Sociability factor. Radiographers scored higher than the TEIQue normative group for Global EI and three of the four factors. The study has benchmarked the Trait EI of one healthcare profession and identified areas for future research to develop our understanding of emotional intelligence.

  20. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  1. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  2. Project X: competitive intelligence data mining and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, John F.; Pagels, Michael A.; Palk, Justin

    2001-03-01

    Competitive Intelligence (CI) is a systematic and ethical program for gathering and analyzing information about your competitors' activities and general business trends to further your own company's goals. CI allows companies to gather extensive information on their competitors and to analyze what the competition is doing in order to maintain or gain a competitive edge. In commercial business this potentially translates into millions of dollars in annual savings or losses. The Internet provides an overwhelming portal of information for CI analysis. The problem is how a company can automate the translation of voluminous information into valuable and actionable knowledge. This paper describes Project X, an agent-based data mining system specifically developed for extracting and analyzing competitive information from the Internet. Project X gathers CI information from a variety of sources including online newspapers, corporate websites, industry sector reporting sites, speech archiving sites, video news casts, stock news sites, weather sites, and rumor sites. It uses individual industry specific (e.g., pharmaceutical, financial, aerospace, etc.) commercial sector ontologies to form the knowledge filtering and discovery structures/content required to filter and identify valuable competitive knowledge. Project X is described in detail and an example competitive intelligence case is shown demonstrating the system's performance and utility for business intelligence.

  3. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  4. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  5. Epidemic spreading with activity-driven awareness diffusion on multiplex network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Jiang, Xin; Ma, Yifang; Huo, Guanying; Zheng, Zhiming

    2016-04-01

    There has been growing interest in exploring the interplay between epidemic spreading with human response, since it is natural for people to take various measures when they become aware of epidemics. As a proper way to describe the multiple connections among people in reality, multiplex network, a set of nodes interacting through multiple sets of edges, has attracted much attention. In this paper, to explore the coupled dynamical processes, a multiplex network with two layers is built. Specifically, the information spreading layer is a time varying network generated by the activity driven model, while the contagion layer is a static network. We extend the microscopic Markov chain approach to derive the epidemic threshold of the model. Compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the method shows high accuracy for the prediction of the epidemic threshold. Besides, taking different spreading models of awareness into consideration, we explored the interplay between epidemic spreading with awareness spreading. The results show that the awareness spreading can not only enhance the epidemic threshold but also reduce the prevalence of epidemics. When the spreading of awareness is defined as susceptible-infected-susceptible model, there exists a critical value where the dynamical process on the awareness layer can control the onset of epidemics; while if it is a threshold model, the epidemic threshold emerges an abrupt transition with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5. Moreover, we also find that temporal changes in the topology hinder the spread of awareness which directly affect the epidemic threshold, especially when the awareness layer is threshold model. Given that the threshold model is a widely used model for social contagion, this is an important and meaningful result. Our results could also lead to interesting future research about the different time-scales of structural changes in multiplex networks.

  6. Preliminary study of online machine translation use of nursing literature: quality evaluation and perceived usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anazawa Ryoko

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Japanese nurses are increasingly required to read published international research in clinical, educational, and research settings. Language barriers are a significant obstacle, and online machine translation (MT is a tool that can be used to address this issue. We examined the quality of Google Translate® (English to Japanese and Korean to Japanese, which is a representative online MT, using a previously verified evaluation method. We also examined the perceived usability and current use of online MT among Japanese nurses. Findings Randomly selected nursing abstracts were translated and then evaluated for intelligibility and usability by 28 participants, including assistants and research associates from nursing universities throughout Japan. They answered a questionnaire about their online MT use. From simple comparison of mean scores between two language pairs, translation quality was significantly better, with respect to both intelligibility and usability, for Korean-Japanese than for English-Japanese. Most respondents perceived a language barrier. Online MT had been used by 61% of the respondents and was perceived as not useful enough. Conclusion Nursing articles translated from Korean into Japanese by an online MT system could be read at an acceptable level of comprehension, but the same could not be said for English-Japanese translations. Respondents with experience using online MT used it largely to grasp the overall meanings of the original text. Enrichment in technical terms appeared to be the key to better usability. Users will be better able to use MT outputs if they improve their foreign language proficiency as much as possible. Further research is being conducted with a larger sample size and detailed analysis.

  7. Web Intelligence and Artificial Intelligence in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devedzic, Vladan

    2004-01-01

    This paper surveys important aspects of Web Intelligence (WI) in the context of Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) research. WI explores the fundamental roles as well as practical impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and advanced Information Technology (IT) on the next generation of Web-related products, systems, services, and…

  8. Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

    2017-10-01

    The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

  9. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  10. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  11. Artificial Intelligence and Moral intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Pana

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the thesis that the implementation of a moral code in the behaviour of artificial intelligent systems needs a specific form of human and artificial intelligence, not just an abstract intelligence. We present intelligence as a system with an internal structure and the structural levels of the moral system, as well as certain characteristics of artificial intelligent agents which can/must be treated as 1- individual entities (with a complex, specialized, autonomous or selfdetermined, even unpredictable conduct, 2- entities endowed with diverse or even multiple intelligence forms, like moral intelligence, 3- open and, even, free-conduct performing systems (with specific, flexible and heuristic mechanisms and procedures of decision, 4 – systems which are open to education, not just to instruction, 5- entities with “lifegraphy”, not just “stategraphy”, 6- equipped not just with automatisms but with beliefs (cognitive and affective complexes, 7- capable even of reflection (“moral life” is a form of spiritual, not just of conscious activity, 8 – elements/members of some real (corporal or virtual community, 9 – cultural beings: free conduct gives cultural value to the action of a ”natural” or artificial being. Implementation of such characteristics does not necessarily suppose efforts to design, construct and educate machines like human beings. The human moral code is irremediably imperfect: it is a morality of preference, of accountability (not of responsibility and a morality of non-liberty, which cannot be remedied by the invention of ethical systems, by the circulation of ideal values and by ethical (even computing education. But such an imperfect morality needs perfect instruments for its implementation: applications of special logic fields; efficient psychological (theoretical and technical attainments to endow the machine not just with intelligence, but with conscience and even spirit; comprehensive technical

  12. Intelligible Artificial Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Weld, Daniel S.; Bansal, Gagan

    2018-01-01

    Since Artificial Intelligence (AI) software uses techniques like deep lookahead search and stochastic optimization of huge neural networks to fit mammoth datasets, it often results in complex behavior that is difficult for people to understand. Yet organizations are deploying AI algorithms in many mission-critical settings. In order to trust their behavior, we must make it intelligible --- either by using inherently interpretable models or by developing methods for explaining otherwise overwh...

  13. Data mining for the online retail industry: A case study of RFM model-based customer segmentation using data mining

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, D

    2012-01-01

    Many small online retailers and new entrants to the online retail sector are keen to practice data mining and consumer-centric marketing in their businesses yet technically lack the necessary knowledge and expertise to do so. In this article a case study of using data mining techniques in customer-centric business intelligence for an online retailer is presented. The main purpose of this analysis is to help the business better understand its customers and therefore conduct customer-centric ma...

  14. Naturalist Intelligence Among the Other Multiple Intelligences [In Bulgarian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Genkov

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The theory of multiple intelligences was presented by Gardner in 1983. The theory was revised later (1999 and among the other intelligences a naturalist intelligence was added. The criteria for distinguishing of the different types of intelligences are considered. While Gardner restricted the analysis of the naturalist intelligence with examples from the living nature only, the present paper considered this problem on wider background including objects and persons of the natural sciences.

  15. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  16. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  17. Artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Hunt, Earl B

    1975-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of artificial intelligence. This book presents the basic mathematical and computational approaches to problems in the artificial intelligence field.Organized into four parts encompassing 16 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the various fields of artificial intelligence. This text then attempts to connect artificial intelligence problems to some of the notions of computability and abstract computing devices. Other chapters consider the general notion of computability, with focus on the interaction bet

  18. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  19. Intelligence Ethics:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønn, Kira Vrist

    2016-01-01

    Questions concerning what constitutes a morally justified conduct of intelligence activities have received increased attention in recent decades. However, intelligence ethics is not yet homogeneous or embedded as a solid research field. The aim of this article is to sketch the state of the art...... of intelligence ethics and point out subjects for further scrutiny in future research. The review clusters the literature on intelligence ethics into two groups: respectively, contributions on external topics (i.e., the accountability of and the public trust in intelligence agencies) and internal topics (i.......e., the search for an ideal ethical framework for intelligence actions). The article concludes that there are many holes to fill for future studies on intelligence ethics both in external and internal discussions. Thus, the article is an invitation – especially, to moral philosophers and political theorists...

  20. #%Applications of artificial intelligence in intelligent manufacturing: a review

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    #

    2017-01-01

    #%Based on research into the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) technology in the manufacturing industry in recent years, we analyze the rapid development of core technologies in the new era of 'Internet plus AI', which is triggering a great change in the models, means, and ecosystems of the manufacturing industry, as well as in the development of AI. We then propose new models, means, and forms of intelligent manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing system architecture, and intelligent man-ufacturing technology system, based on the integration of AI technology with information communications, manufacturing, and related product technology. Moreover, from the perspectives of intelligent manufacturing application technology, industry, and application demonstration, the current development in intelligent manufacturing is discussed. Finally, suggestions for the appli-cation of AI in intelligent manufacturing in China are presented.

  1. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  2. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  3. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

    2015-11-01

    Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

  4. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  5. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  6. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  7. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  8. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  9. Development and evaluation of intelligent machine tools based on knowledge evolution in M2M environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hoon; Song, Jun Yeob; Lee, Jong Hyun; Cha, Suk Keun

    2009-01-01

    In the near future, the foreseen improvement in machine tools will be in the form of a knowledge evolution-based intelligent device. The goal of this study is to develop intelligent machine tools having knowledge-evolution capability in Machine to Machine (M2M) wired and wireless environment. The knowledge evolution-based intelligent machine tools are expected to be capable of gathering knowledge autonomously, producing knowledge, understanding knowledge, applying reasoning to knowledge, making new decisions, dialoguing with other machines, etc. The concept of the knowledge-evolution intelligent machine originated from the process of machine control operation by the sense, dialogue and decision of a human expert. The structure of knowledge evolution in M2M and the scheme for a dialogue agent among agent-based modules such as a sensory agent, a dialogue agent and an expert system (decision support agent) are presented in this paper, and work-offset compensation from thermal change and recommendation of cutting condition are performed on-line for knowledge-evolution verification

  10. The need for data science in epidemic modelling. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danon, Leon; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen

    2016-09-01

    In their review, Chowell et al. consider the ability of mathematical models to predict early epidemic growth [1]. In particular, they question the central prediction of classical differential equation models that the number of cases grows exponentially during the early stages of an epidemic. Using examples including HIV and Ebola, they argue that classical models fail to capture key qualitative features of early growth and describe a selection of models that do capture non-exponential epidemic growth. An implication of this failure is that predictions may be inaccurate and unusable, highlighting the need for care when embarking upon modelling using classical methodology. There remains a lack of understanding of the mechanisms driving many observed epidemic patterns; we argue that data science should form a fundamental component of epidemic modelling, providing a rigorous methodology for data-driven approaches, rather than trying to enforce established frameworks. The need for refinement of classical models provides a strong argument for the use of data science, to identify qualitative characteristics and pinpoint the mechanisms responsible for the observed epidemic patterns.

  11. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  12. Reviewing the development of an artificial intelligence based risk program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Hinton, M.F.

    1985-01-01

    A successful application of nonconventional programming methods has been achieved in computer-assisted probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The event tree sequence importance calculator, SQUIMP, provides for prompted data entry, generic expansion, on-line pruning, boolean reductions, and importance factor selection. SQUIMP employs constructs typically found in artificial intelligence (AI) programs. The development history of SQUIMP is outlined and its internal structure described as background for a discussion on the applicability of symbolic programming methods in PRA

  13. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  14. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  15. A fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system for spacecraft integrated vehicle health management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, G. Gordon

    1995-01-01

    Due to the complexity of future space missions and the large amount of data involved, greater autonomy in data processing is demanded for mission operations, training, and vehicle health management. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system to perform data reduction, data analysis, and fault diagnosis for spacecraft vehicle health management applications. The diagnostic system contains a data filter and an inference engine. The data filter is designed to intelligently select only the necessary data for analysis, while the inference engine is designed for failure detection, warning, and decision on corrective actions using fuzzy logic synthesis. Due to its adaptive nature and on-line learning ability, the diagnostic system is capable of dealing with environmental noise, uncertainties, conflict information, and sensor faults.

  16. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  17. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Martínez-Beneito, Miguel Angel; Miralles, María Teresa; Verdejo, Francisco

    2009-07-29

    The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based) client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probability of being in an epidemic phase (via e-mail if desired). When the probability is greater than 0.5, it also returns the probability of an increase in the incidence rate during the following week. The system also provides two complementary graphs. This system has been implemented using statistical free-software (R and WinBUGS), a web server environment for Java code (Tomcat) and a software module created by us (Rdp) responsible for managing internal tasks; the software package MySQL has been used to construct the database management system. The implementation is available on-line from: http://www.geeitema.org/meviepi/fludetweb/. The ease of use of FluDetWeb and its on-line availability can make it a valuable tool for public health practitioners who want to obtain information about the probability that their system is in an epidemic phase. Moreover, the architecture described can also be useful for developers of systems based on computationally intensive methods.

  18. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  19. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  20. Social intelligence, human intelligence and niche construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterelny, Kim

    2007-04-29

    This paper is about the evolution of hominin intelligence. I agree with defenders of the social intelligence hypothesis in thinking that externalist models of hominin intelligence are not plausible: such models cannot explain the unique cognition and cooperation explosion in our lineage, for changes in the external environment (e.g. increasing environmental unpredictability) affect many lineages. Both the social intelligence hypothesis and the social intelligence-ecological complexity hybrid I outline here are niche construction models. Hominin evolution is hominin response to selective environments that earlier hominins have made. In contrast to social intelligence models, I argue that hominins have both created and responded to a unique foraging mode; a mode that is both social in itself and which has further effects on hominin social environments. In contrast to some social intelligence models, on this view, hominin encounters with their ecological environments continue to have profound selective effects. However, though the ecological environment selects, it does not select on its own. Accidents and their consequences, differential success and failure, result from the combination of the ecological environment an agent faces and the social features that enhance some opportunities and suppress others and that exacerbate some dangers and lessen others. Individuals do not face the ecological filters on their environment alone, but with others, and with the technology, information and misinformation that their social world provides.

  1. Trends in ambient intelligent systems the role of computational intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Khan, Mohammad; Abraham, Ajith

    2016-01-01

    This book demonstrates the success of Ambient Intelligence in providing possible solutions for the daily needs of humans. The book addresses implications of ambient intelligence in areas of domestic living, elderly care, robotics, communication, philosophy and others. The objective of this edited volume is to show that Ambient Intelligence is a boon to humanity with conceptual, philosophical, methodical and applicative understanding. The book also aims to schematically demonstrate developments in the direction of augmented sensors, embedded systems and behavioral intelligence towards Ambient Intelligent Networks or Smart Living Technology. It contains chapters in the field of Ambient Intelligent Networks, which received highly positive feedback during the review process. The book contains research work, with in-depth state of the art from augmented sensors, embedded technology and artificial intelligence along with cutting-edge research and development of technologies and applications of Ambient Intelligent N...

  2. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  4. Canine distemper virus infection among wildlife before and after the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Junko; Nishio, Yohei; Kameo, Yuki; Terada, Yutaka; Kuwata, Ryusei; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Kazuo; Maeda, Ken

    2015-11-01

    In 2007-2008, a canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic occurred among wild animals in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, and many mammals, including the wild boar and deer, were infected. In this study, CDV prevalence among wild animals was surveyed before and after the epidemic. At first, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with horseradish peroxidase-conjugated protein A/G was established to detect CDV antibodies in many mammalian species. This established ELISA was available for testing dogs, raccoons and raccoon dogs as well as virus-neutralization test. Next, a serological survey of wild mammalians was conducted, and it was indicated that many wild mammalians, particularly raccoons, were infected with CDV during the epidemic, but few were infected before and after the epidemic. On the other hand, many raccoon dogs died during the epidemic, but CDV remained prevalent in the remaining population, and a small epidemic occurred in raccoon dogs in 2012-2013. These results indicated that the epidemic of 2007-2008 may have been intensified by transmission to raccoons.

  5. Encouraging Development of a Global Mindset among Students in Online International Management Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Seemantini

    2018-01-01

    This research explores how a multiple intelligences approach can be used to build a global mindset among students in online international management courses. It draws upon research in the areas of global mindset, education, cognition and learning, and neuroscience to discuss how pedagogical tools and strategies relevant to each specific…

  6. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  7. MOSES: A Matlab-based open-source stochastic epidemic simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Huseyin Atakan

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents an open-source stochastic epidemic simulator. Discrete Time Markov Chain based simulator is implemented in Matlab. The simulator capable of simulating SEQIJR (susceptible, exposed, quarantined, infected, isolated and recovered) model can be reduced to simpler models by setting some of the parameters (transition probabilities) to zero. Similarly, it can be extended to more complicated models by editing the source code. It is designed to be used for testing different control algorithms to contain epidemics. The simulator is also designed to be compatible with a network based epidemic simulator and can be used in the network based scheme for the simulation of a node. Simulations show the capability of reproducing different epidemic model behaviors successfully in a computationally efficient manner.

  8. Food Marketing to Children Online: A Content Analysis of Food Company Websites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, Lisa B; Montague, Heather; Wartella, Ellen

    2017-03-01

    Since 2006, many U.S. food and beverage companies have pledged to market healthier foods to children to help combat the childhood obesity epidemic. Despite this, companies' expenditures on online advertising have increased of late. To explore this seemingly contradictory situation, the authors conducted a content analysis of approximately 100 food and beverage brand websites, examining a multitude of online marketing practices across a variety of different products, as well as the relationship between marketing techniques and the nutritional profile of promoted foods. This is the first study to examine if nutrition varied by marketing technique. Few brands maintained child-oriented websites, but the brands that did have child-oriented websites included a large number of games promoting particularly obesogenic food products. Somewhat surprisingly, games with many brand identifiers were paired with slightly less obesogenic foods. These findings present a mixed picture of the threat posed by online child-oriented food marketing.

  9. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  10. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  11. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  12. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  13. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  14. Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Online Social Therapy for Youth Mental Health

    OpenAIRE

    D'Alfonso, Simon; Santesteban-Echarri, Olga; Rice, Simon; Wadley, Greg; Lederman, Reeva; Miles, Christopher; Gleeson, John; Alvarez-Jimenez, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Benefits from mental health early interventions may not be sustained over time, and longer-term intervention programs may be required to maintain early clinical gains. However, due to the high intensity of face-to-face early intervention treatments, this may not be feasible. Adjunctive internet-based interventions specifically designed for youth may provide a cost-effective and engaging alternative to prevent loss of intervention benefits. However, until now online interventions...

  15. Traffic Route Modelling and Assignment with Intelligent Transport System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunicina Nadezhda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of signal transmitting environment for multimodal traffic control will enhance the integration of emergency and specialized transport routing tools in usual traffic control paradigms - it is one of the opportunities offered by modern intelligent traffic control systems. The improvement of effective electric power use in public transport system is an advantage of Intelligent Transport System (ITS. The research is connected with the improvement of on-line traffic control and adaptation of special traffic lighting alternatives by ITS. The assignment of the nearest appropriate transport will be done by passenger request, but unlike information system, the transport planning is done on demand. The task can be solved with the help of modern technical methods and equipment, as well as by applying control paradigms of the distributed systems. The problem is solved with the help of calculations hyper-graph and scheduling theory. The goal of the research is to develop methods, which support scheduling of the emergency transport, using high performance computing.

  16. Advanced intelligent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ryoo, Young; Jang, Moon-soo; Bae, Young-Chul

    2014-01-01

    Intelligent systems have been initiated with the attempt to imitate the human brain. People wish to let machines perform intelligent works. Many techniques of intelligent systems are based on artificial intelligence. According to changing and novel requirements, the advanced intelligent systems cover a wide spectrum: big data processing, intelligent control, advanced robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning. This book focuses on coordinating intelligent systems with highly integrated and foundationally functional components. The book consists of 19 contributions that features social network-based recommender systems, application of fuzzy enforcement, energy visualization, ultrasonic muscular thickness measurement, regional analysis and predictive modeling, analysis of 3D polygon data, blood pressure estimation system, fuzzy human model, fuzzy ultrasonic imaging method, ultrasonic mobile smart technology, pseudo-normal image synthesis, subspace classifier, mobile object tracking, standing-up moti...

  17. Identifying emotional intelligence in professional nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooker, Barbara Molina; Shoultz, Jan; Codier, Estelle E

    2007-01-01

    The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis projects that the shortage of registered nurses in the United States will double by 2010 and will nearly quadruple to 20% by 2015 (Bureau of Health Professionals Health Resources and Services Administration. [2002]. Projected supply, demand, and shortages of registered nurses, 2000-2020 [On-line]. Available: http:bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/reports/rnprojects/report.htm). The purpose of this study was to use the conceptual framework of emotional intelligence to analyze nurses' stories about their practice to identify factors that could be related to improved nurse retention and patient/client outcomes. The stories reflected evidence of the competencies and domains of emotional intelligence and were related to nurse retention and improved outcomes. Nurses recognized their own strengths and limitations, displayed empathy and recognized client needs, nurtured relationships, used personal influence, and acted as change agents. Nurses were frustrated when organizational barriers conflicted with their knowledge/intuition about nursing practice, their communications were disregarded, or their attempts to create a shared vision and teamwork were ignored. Elements of professional nursing practice, such as autonomy, nurse satisfaction, respect, and the professional practice environment, were identified in the excerpts of the stories. The shortage of practicing nurses continues to be a national issue. The use of emotional intelligence concepts may provide fresh insights into ways to keep nurses engaged in practice and to improve nurse retention and patient/client outcomes.

  18. Concern about the Expanding Prescription Drug Epidemic: A Survey of Licensed Prescribers and Dispensers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, R Eric; Reed, Nia; Carnes, Neal; Kooreman, Harold E

    2016-01-01

    Prescription drug misuse and abuse has reached epidemic levels in the U.S., and stands as a leading cause of death. As the primary gatekeepers to the medications contributing to this epidemic, it is critical to understand the views of licensed health care professionals. In this study, we examine health care professionals' concern regarding prescription drug abuse in their communities and the impact their concern has had on their prescribing and dispensing practices. An online survey of licensed health care providers. Conducted in Indiana. This study was a state-wide evaluation of Indiana's prescription drug monitoring program. The questionnaire asked respondents how concerned they were about prescription drug abuse in their community. Variation in the level of concern was examined using ordinary least squares regression and information about the respondents' demographic background and clinical experience. In addition, we used logistic regression to examine whether concern was associated with changing prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The majority of providers indicated they were "moderately" or "extremely concerned" about prescription drug abuse in their communities. The level of concern, however, varied significantly by profession, with pharmacists, physicians, nurse practitioners/physician assistants being more concerned than dentists. Additional analyses indicate that providers with higher levels of concern were those who also reported recently changing their prescribing and/or dispensing behavior. The voluntary nature and geographical focus of the study limits the generalizability of the findings. Concern about prescription drug abuse is generally high across the major health care professions; however, a significant minority of providers, particularly among dentists, expressed little or no concern about the epidemic. Increasing health care providers' general level of concern about prescription drug abuse may be an effective public health tool for

  19. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  20. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  1. Competitive Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergeron, Pierrette; Hiller, Christine A.

    2002-01-01

    Reviews the evolution of competitive intelligence since 1994, including terminology and definitions and analytical techniques. Addresses the issue of ethics; explores how information technology supports the competitive intelligence process; and discusses education and training opportunities for competitive intelligence, including core competencies…

  2. An artificial intelligence approach towards disturbance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiedler, U.; Lindner, A.; Baldeweg, F.; Klebau, J.

    1986-01-01

    Scale and degree of sophistication of technological plants, e.g. nuclear power plants, have been essentially increased during the last decades. Conventional disturbance analysis systems have proved to work successfully in well-known situations. But in cases of emergencies, the operator needs more advanced assistance in realizing diagnosis and therapy control. The significance of introducing artificial intelligence (AI) methods in nuclear power technology is emphasized. Main features of the on-line disturbance analysis system SAAP-2 are reported about. It is being developed for application to nuclear power plants. Problems related to man-machine communication will be gone into more detail, because their solution will influence end-user acceptance considerably. (author)

  3. Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Report on the 1st Southern African Regional Epidemic Outlook Forum, Harare, Zimbabwe, 26-29 September, 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DaSilva, Joaquim; Garanganga, Brad; Teveredzi, Vonai; Marx, Sabine M; Mason, Simon J; Connor, Stephen J

    2004-10-22

    Malaria is a major public health problem for countries in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). While the endemicity of malaria varies enormously across this region, many of the countries have districts that are prone to periodic epidemics, which can be regional in their extent, and to resurgent outbreaks that are much more localized. These epidemics are frequently triggered by climate anomalies and often follow periods of drought. Many parts of Southern Africa have suffered rainfall deficit over the past three years and countries expect to see increased levels of malaria when the rains return to more 'normal' levels. Problems with drug and insecticide resistance are documented widely and the region contains countries with the highest rates of HIV prevalence to be found anywhere in the world. Consequently, many communities are vulnerable to severe disease outcomes should epidemics occur. The SADC countries have adopted the Abuja targets for Roll Back Malaria in Africa, which include improved epidemic detection and response, i.e., that 60% of epidemics will be detected within two weeks of onset, and 60% of epidemics will be responded to within two weeks of detection. The SADC countries recognize that to achieve these targets they need improved information on where and when to look for epidemics. The WHO integrated framework for improved early warning and early detection of malaria epidemics has been recognized as a potentially useful tool for epidemic preparedness and response planning. Following evidence of successful adoption and implementation of this approach in Botswana, the SADC countries, the WHO Southern Africa Inter-Country Programme on Malaria Control, and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre decided to organize a regional meeting where countries could gather to assess their current control status and community vulnerability, consider changes in epidemic risk, and develop a detailed plan of action for the forthcoming 2004-2005 season. The

  4. Knowledge Discovery from Posts in Online Health Communities Using Unified Medical Language System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghua Chen

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Patient-reported posts in Online Health Communities (OHCs contain various valuable information that can help establish knowledge-based online support for online patients. However, utilizing these reports to improve online patient services in the absence of appropriate medical and healthcare expert knowledge is difficult. Thus, we propose a comprehensive knowledge discovery method that is based on the Unified Medical Language System for the analysis of narrative posts in OHCs. First, we propose a domain-knowledge support framework for OHCs to provide a basis for post analysis. Second, we develop a Knowledge-Involved Topic Modeling (KI-TM method to extract and expand explicit knowledge within the text. We propose four metrics, namely, explicit knowledge rate, latent knowledge rate, knowledge correlation rate, and perplexity, for the evaluation of the KI-TM method. Our experimental results indicate that our proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of providing knowledge support. Our method enhances knowledge support for online patients and can help develop intelligent OHCs in the future.

  5. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  6. Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

  7. Implementation of an Intelligent Tutoring System for Online Homework Support in an Efficacy Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Mingyu; Roschelle, Jeremy; Heffernan, Neil; Fairman, Janet; Murphy, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Much research has been done on the development of an intelligent tutoring system (ITS), and small empirical studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of ITS at promoting student learning. However, large-scale implementation of ITS in school settings has not been researched thoroughly. In this paper, we describe an ongoing randomized controlled…

  8. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  9. A Proposed Business Intelligent Framework for Recommender Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sitalakshmi Venkatraman

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this Internet age, recommender systems (RS have become popular, offering new opportunities and challenges to the business world. With a continuous increase in global competition, e-businesses, information portals, social networks and more, websites are required to become more user-centric and rely on the presence and role of RS in assisting users in better decision making. However, with continuous changes in user interests and consumer behavior patterns that are influenced by easy access to vast information and social factors, raising the quality of recommendations has become a challenge for recommender systems. There is a pressing need for exploring hybrid models of the five main types of RS, namely collaborative, demographic, utility, content and knowledge based approaches along with advancements in Big Data (BD to become more context-aware of the technology and social changes and to behave intelligently. There is a gap in literature with a research focus in this direction. This paper takes a step to address this by exploring a new paradigm of applying business intelligence (BI concepts to RS for intelligently responding to user changes and business complexities. A BI based framework adopting a hybrid methodology for RS is proposed with a focus on enhancing the RS performance. Such a business intelligent recommender system (BIRS can adopt On-line Analytical Processing (OLAP tools and performance monitoring metrics using data mining techniques of BI to enhance its own learning, user profiling and predictive models for making a more useful set of personalised recommendations to its users. The application of the proposed framework to a B2C e-commerce case example is presented.

  10. [Chinese medicine industry 4.0：advancing digital pharmaceutical manufacture toward intelligent pharmaceutical manufacture].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yi-Yu; Qu, Hai-Bin; Zhang, Bo-Li

    2016-01-01

    A perspective analysis on the technological innovation in pharmaceutical engineering of Chinese medicine unveils a vision on "Future Factory" of Chinese medicine industry in mind. The strategy as well as the technical roadmap of "Chinese medicine industry 4.0" is proposed, with the projection of related core technology system. It is clarified that the technical development path of Chinese medicine industry from digital manufacture to intelligent manufacture. On the basis of precisely defining technical terms such as process control, on-line detection and process quality monitoring for Chinese medicine manufacture, the technical concepts and characteristics of intelligent pharmaceutical manufacture as well as digital pharmaceutical manufacture are elaborated. Promoting wide applications of digital manufacturing technology of Chinese medicine is strongly recommended. Through completely informationized manufacturing processes and multi-discipline cluster innovation, intelligent manufacturing technology of Chinese medicine should be developed, which would provide a new driving force for Chinese medicine industry in technology upgrade, product quality enhancement and efficiency improvement. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  11. Sustainable Model for Public Health Emergency Operations Centers for Global Settings

    OpenAIRE

    Balajee, S. Arunmozhi; Pasi, Omer G.; Etoundi, Alain Georges M.; Rzeszotarski, Peter; Do, Trang T.; Hennessee, Ian; Merali, Sharifa; Alroy, Karen A.; Phu, Tran Dac; Mounts, Anthony W.

    2017-01-01

    Capacity to receive, verify, analyze, assess, and investigate public health events is essential for epidemic intelligence. Public health Emergency Operations Centers (PHEOCs) can be epidemic intelligence hubs by 1) having the capacity to receive, analyze, and visualize multiple data streams, including surveillance and 2) maintaining a trained workforce that can analyze and interpret data from real-time emerging events. Such PHEOCs could be physically located within a ministry of health epidem...

  12. Mathematical modeling of Avian Influenza epidemic with bird vaccination in constant population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharis, M.; Amidi

    2018-03-01

    The development of the industrial world and human life is increasingly modern and less attention to environmental sustainability causes the virus causes the epidemic has a high tendency to mutate so that the virus that initially only attack animals, is also found to have the ability to attack humans. The epidemics that lasted some time were bird flu epidemics and swine flu epidemics. The flu epidemic led to several deaths and many people admitted to the hospital. Strain (derivatives) of H5N1 virus was identified as the cause of the bird flu epidemic while the H1N1 strain of the virus was identified as the cause of the swine flu epidemic. The symptoms are similar to seasonal flu caused by H3N2 strain of the virus. Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu initially only attacked animals, but over time some people were found to be infected with the virus.

  13. How to define and build an effective cyber threat intelligence capability how to understand, justify and implement a new approach to security

    CERN Document Server

    Dalziel, Henry; Carnall, James

    2014-01-01

    Intelligence-Led Security: How to Understand, Justify and Implement a New Approach to Security is a concise review of the concept of Intelligence-Led Security. Protecting a business, including its information and intellectual property, physical infrastructure, employees, and reputation, has become increasingly difficult. Online threats come from all sides: internal leaks and external adversaries; domestic hacktivists and overseas cybercrime syndicates; targeted threats and mass attacks. And these threats run the gamut from targeted to indiscriminate to entirely accidental. Amo

  14. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  15. Modelling traffic flows with intelligent cars and intelligent roads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Arem, Bart; Tampere, Chris M.J.; Malone, Kerry

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the modeling of traffic flows with intelligent cars and intelligent roads. It will describe the modeling approach MIXIC and review the results for different ADA systems: Adaptive Cruise Control, a special lane for Intelligent Vehicles, cooperative following and external speed

  16. Changing Students Minds and Achievement in Mathematics: The Impact of a Free Online Student Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo Boaler

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study reports on the impact of a “massive, open, online course” (MOOC designed to change students' ideas about mathematics and their own potential and improve their mathematics achievement. Many students hold damaging fixed mindsets, believing that their intelligence is unchangeable. When students shift to a growth mindset (believing that their intelligence is malleable, their achievement increases. This study of a MOOC intervention differs from previous mindset research in three ways (1 the intervention was delivered through a free online course with the advantage of being scalable nationwide (2 the intervention infused mindset messages into mathematics, specifically targeting students' beliefs about mathematics (3 the research was conducted with a teacher randomized controlled design to estimate its effects. Results show that the treatment group who took the MOOC reported more positive beliefs about math, engaged more deeply in math in class, and achieved at significantly higher levels on standardized mathematics assessments.

  17. 3rd Computer Science On-line Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Senkerik, Roman; Oplatkova, Zuzana; Silhavy, Petr; Prokopova, Zdenka

    2014-01-01

    This book is based on the research papers presented in the 3rd Computer Science On-line Conference 2014 (CSOC 2014).   The conference is intended to provide an international forum for discussions on the latest high-quality research results in all areas related to Computer Science. The topics addressed are the theoretical aspects and applications of Artificial Intelligences, Computer Science, Informatics and Software Engineering.   The authors provide new approaches and methods to real-world problems, and in particular, exploratory research that describes novel approaches in their field. Particular emphasis is laid on modern trends in selected fields of interest. New algorithms or methods in a variety of fields are also presented.   This book is divided into three sections and covers topics including Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science and Software Engineering. Each section consists of new theoretical contributions and applications which can be used for the further development of knowledge of everybod...

  18. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  19. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  20. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  1. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  2. Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

    2009-01-01

    Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

  3. Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternberg, Robert J

    2012-03-01

    Intelligence is the ability to learn from experience and to adapt to, shape, and select environments. Intelligence as measured by (raw scores on) conventional standardized tests varies across the lifespan, and also across generations. Intelligence can be understood in part in terms of the biology of the brain-especially with regard to the functioning in the prefrontal cortex-and also correlates with brain size, at least within humans. Studies of the effects of genes and environment suggest that the heritability coefficient (ratio of genetic to phenotypic variation) is between .4 and .8, although heritability varies as a function of socioeconomic status and other factors. Racial differences in measured intelligence have been observed, but race is a socially constructed rather than biological variable, so such differences are difficult to interpret.

  4. Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternberg, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Intelligence is the ability to learn from experience and to adapt to, shape, and select environments. Intelligence as measured by (raw scores on) conventional standardized tests varies across the lifespan, and also across generations. Intelligence can be understood in part in terms of the biology of the brain—especially with regard to the functioning in the prefrontal cortex—and also correlates with brain size, at least within humans. Studies of the effects of genes and environment suggest that the heritability coefficient (ratio of genetic to phenotypic variation) is between .4 and .8, although heritability varies as a function of socioeconomic status and other factors. Racial differences in measured intelligence have been observed, but race is a socially constructed rather than biological variable, so such differences are difficult to interpret. PMID:22577301

  5. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  6. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  7. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

  8. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  9. A case for critical ethnography: rethinking the early years of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassin, Didier

    2013-12-01

    The epidemic of AIDS in South Africa has been characterized not only by its rapid progression but also its impassioned controversies. Retrospectively examining a long-term anthropological project and discussing some reactions it elicited, the paper proposes a defense and illustration of a critical ethnography at three moments of the research. Ethnography is first discussed as fieldworks, proposing an alternative to the horizontal multi-sited approach via a vertical multi-layered method using various scales and locations, and thus connecting the disease endured by patients in townships and former homelands with the heated debates in scientific and political forums: this procedure substitutes a political economy of the disease for its cultural and behavioral interpretations. Ethnography is then discussed as writing, suggesting acknowledgment of the social intelligence of the agents as well as the need for a scientific distance: this principle allows the articulation of the objective historical condition of the individuals and their subjective experience of history, both revealed in the development of the epidemic. Ultimately ethnography is considered from the perspective of its afterlife, that is, the continuous process of its translation by readers and commentators, on the one hand, by the author trying to reach beyond the boundaries of the academic realm, on the other, the work of anthropology appearing as a living object open to public conversation and consequently a resource for knowledge and action. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Combined Intelligent Control (CIC an Intelligent Decision Making Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moteaal Asadi Shirzi

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research is to introduce the concept of combined intelligent control (CIC as an effective architecture for decision-making and control of intelligent agents and multi-robot sets. Basically, the CIC is a combination of various architectures and methods from fields such as artificial intelligence, Distributed Artificial Intelligence (DAI, control and biological computing. Although any intelligent architecture may be very effective for some specific applications, it could be less for others. Therefore, CIC combines and arranges them in a way that the strengths of any approach cover the weaknesses of others. In this paper first, we introduce some intelligent architectures from a new aspect. Afterward, we offer the CIC by combining them. CIC has been executed in a multi-agent set. In this set, robots must cooperate to perform some various tasks in a complex and nondeterministic environment with a low sensory feedback and relationship. In order to investigate, improve, and correct the combined intelligent control method, simulation software has been designed which will be presented and considered. To show the ability of the CIC algorithm as a distributed architecture, a central algorithm is designed and compared with the CIC.

  11. Net smart how to thrive online

    CERN Document Server

    Rheingold, Howard

    2014-01-01

    Like it or not, knowing how to make use of online tools without being overloaded with too much information is an essential ingredient to personal success in the twenty-first century. But how can we use digital media so that they make us empowered participants rather than passive receivers, grounded, well-rounded people rather than multitasking basket cases? In Net Smart, cyberculture expert Howard Rheingold shows us how to use social media intelligently, humanely, and, above all, mindfully. Mindful use of digital media means thinking about what we are doing, cultivating an ongoing inner inquiry into how we want to spend our time. Rheingold outlines five fundamental digital literacies, online skills that will help us do this: attention, participation, collaboration, critical consumption of information (or "crap detection"), and network smarts. He explains how attention works, and how we can use our attention to focus on the tiny relevant portion of the incoming tsunami of information. He describes the quality...

  12. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  13. Intelligence and negotiating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    This paper discusses the role of US intelligence during arms control negotiations between 1982 and 1987. It also covers : the orchestration of intelligence projects; an evaluation of the performance of intelligence activities; the effect intelligence work had on actual arms negotiations; and suggestions for improvements in the future

  14. Intelligence and childlessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanazawa, Satoshi

    2014-11-01

    Demographers debate why people have children in advanced industrial societies where children are net economic costs. From an evolutionary perspective, however, the important question is why some individuals choose not to have children. Recent theoretical developments in evolutionary psychology suggest that more intelligent individuals may be more likely to prefer to remain childless than less intelligent individuals. Analyses of the National Child Development Study show that more intelligent men and women express preference to remain childless early in their reproductive careers, but only more intelligent women (not more intelligent men) are more likely to remain childless by the end of their reproductive careers. Controlling for education and earnings does not at all attenuate the association between childhood general intelligence and lifetime childlessness among women. One-standard-deviation increase in childhood general intelligence (15 IQ points) decreases women's odds of parenthood by 21-25%. Because women have a greater impact on the average intelligence of future generations, the dysgenic fertility among women is predicted to lead to a decline in the average intelligence of the population in advanced industrial nations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  16. FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miralles María

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probability of being in an epidemic phase (via e-mail if desired. When the probability is greater than 0.5, it also returns the probability of an increase in the incidence rate during the following week. The system also provides two complementary graphs. This system has been implemented using statistical free-software (ℝ and WinBUGS, a web server environment for Java code (Tomcat and a software module created by us (Rdp responsible for managing internal tasks; the software package MySQL has been used to construct the database management system. The implementation is available on-line from: http://www.geeitema.org/meviepi/fludetweb/. Conclusion The ease of use of FluDetWeb and its on-line availability can make it a valuable tool for public health practitioners who want to obtain information about the probability that their system is in an epidemic phase. Moreover, the architecture described can also be useful for developers of systems based on computationally intensive methods.

  17. Perceived intelligence is associated with measured intelligence in men but not women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleisner, Karel; Chvátalová, Veronika; Flegr, Jaroslav

    2014-01-01

    The ability to accurately assess the intelligence of other persons finds its place in everyday social interaction and should have important evolutionary consequences. We used static facial photographs of 40 men and 40 women to test the relationship between measured IQ, perceived intelligence, and facial shape. Both men and women were able to accurately evaluate the intelligence of men by viewing facial photographs. In addition to general intelligence, figural and fluid intelligence showed a significant relationship with perceived intelligence, but again, only in men. No relationship between perceived intelligence and IQ was found for women. We used geometric morphometrics to determine which facial traits are associated with the perception of intelligence, as well as with intelligence as measured by IQ testing. Faces that are perceived as highly intelligent are rather prolonged with a broader distance between the eyes, a larger nose, a slight upturn to the corners of the mouth, and a sharper, pointing, less rounded chin. By contrast, the perception of lower intelligence is associated with broader, more rounded faces with eyes closer to each other, a shorter nose, declining corners of the mouth, and a rounded and massive chin. By contrast, we found no correlation between morphological traits and real intelligence measured with IQ test, either in men or women. These results suggest that a perceiver can accurately gauge the real intelligence of men, but not women, by viewing their faces in photographs; however, this estimation is possibly not based on facial shape. Our study revealed no relation between intelligence and either attractiveness or face shape.

  18. Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

  19. Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

  20. Artificial Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information Technology Quarterly, 1985

    1985-01-01

    This issue of "Information Technology Quarterly" is devoted to the theme of "Artificial Intelligence." It contains two major articles: (1) Artificial Intelligence and Law" (D. Peter O'Neill and George D. Wood); (2) "Artificial Intelligence: A Long and Winding Road" (John J. Simon, Jr.). In addition, it contains two sidebars: (1) "Calculating and…

  1. The Role of Semantics in Next-Generation Online Virtual World-Based Retail Store

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Geetika; Anantaram, C.; Ghosh, Hiranmay

    Online virtual environments are increasingly becoming popular for entrepreneurship. While interactions are primarily between avatars, some interactions could occur through intelligent chatbots. Such interactions require connecting to backend business applications to obtain information, carry out real-world transactions etc. In this paper, we focus on integrating business application systems with virtual worlds. We discuss the probable features of a next-generation online virtual world-based retail store and the technologies involved in realizing the features of such a store. In particular, we examine the role of semantics in integrating popular virtual worlds with business applications to provide natural language based interactions.

  2. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  3. Health-Care Access during the Ebola Virus Epidemic in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuilkin, Patricia A; Udhayashankar, Kanagasabai; Niescierenko, Michelle; Maranda, Louise

    2017-09-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic, which began in West Africa in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, with more than 4,800 of these deaths occurring in Liberia. The epidemic had an additional effect of paralyzing the health-care systems in affected countries, which led to even greater mortality and morbidity. Little is known about the impact that the epidemic had on the provision of basic health care. During the period from March to May 2015, we undertook a nationwide, community-based survey to learn more about health-care access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. A cluster sampling strategy was used to administer a structured in-person survey to heads of households located within the catchment areas surrounding all 21 government hospitals in Liberia. A total of 543 heads of household from all 15 counties in Liberia participated in the study; more than half (67%) of urban respondents and 46% of rural respondents stated that it was very difficult or impossible to access health care during the epidemic. In urban areas, only 20-30% of patients seeking care during the epidemic received care, and in rural areas, only 70-80% of those seeking care were able to access it. Patients requiring prenatal and obstetric care and emergency services had the most difficulty accessing care. The results of this survey support the observation that basic health care was extremely difficult to access during the EVD epidemic in Liberia. Our results underscore the critical need to support essential health-care services during humanitarian crises to minimize preventable morbidity and mortality.

  4. Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

  5. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  6. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  7. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  8. Self-Assessing of the Emotional Intelligence and Organizational Intelligence in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagiene, Valentina; Juškeviciene, Anita; Carneiro, Roberto; Child, Camilla; Cullen, Joe

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents the results of an evaluation of the Emotional Intelligence (EI) and Organisational Intelligence (OI) competences self-assessment tools developed and applied by the IGUANA project. In the paper Emotional Intelligence and Organisational Intelligence competences are discussed, their use in action research experiments to assess and…

  9. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  10. Development of cyberblog-based intelligent tutorial system to improve students learning ability algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyudin; Riza, L. S.; Putro, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    E-learning as a learning activity conducted online by the students with the usual tools is favoured by students. The use of computer media in learning provides benefits that are not owned by other learning media that is the ability of computers to interact individually with students. But the weakness of many learning media is to assume that all students have a uniform ability, when in reality this is not the case. The concept of Intelligent Tutorial System (ITS) combined with cyberblog application can overcome the weaknesses in neglecting diversity. An Intelligent Tutorial System-based Cyberblog application (ITS) is a web-based interactive application program that implements artificial intelligence which can be used as a learning and evaluation media in the learning process. The use of ITS-based Cyberblog in learning is one of the alternative learning media that is interesting and able to help students in measuring ability in understanding the material. This research will be associated with the improvement of logical thinking ability (logical thinking) of students, especially in algorithm subjects.

  11. Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Godwin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

  12. Perceived Intelligence Is Associated with Measured Intelligence in Men but Not Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleisner, Karel; Chvátalová, Veronika; Flegr, Jaroslav

    2014-01-01

    Background The ability to accurately assess the intelligence of other persons finds its place in everyday social interaction and should have important evolutionary consequences. Methodology/Principal Findings We used static facial photographs of 40 men and 40 women to test the relationship between measured IQ, perceived intelligence, and facial shape. Both men and women were able to accurately evaluate the intelligence of men by viewing facial photographs. In addition to general intelligence, figural and fluid intelligence showed a significant relationship with perceived intelligence, but again, only in men. No relationship between perceived intelligence and IQ was found for women. We used geometric morphometrics to determine which facial traits are associated with the perception of intelligence, as well as with intelligence as measured by IQ testing. Faces that are perceived as highly intelligent are rather prolonged with a broader distance between the eyes, a larger nose, a slight upturn to the corners of the mouth, and a sharper, pointing, less rounded chin. By contrast, the perception of lower intelligence is associated with broader, more rounded faces with eyes closer to each other, a shorter nose, declining corners of the mouth, and a rounded and massive chin. By contrast, we found no correlation between morphological traits and real intelligence measured with IQ test, either in men or women. Conclusions These results suggest that a perceiver can accurately gauge the real intelligence of men, but not women, by viewing their faces in photographs; however, this estimation is possibly not based on facial shape. Our study revealed no relation between intelligence and either attractiveness or face shape. PMID:24651120

  13. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  14. Nexus between Intelligence Education and Intelligence Training: A South African Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. van den Berg

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the nexus of intelligence education and training from a South African perspective with the focus on current practices in light of the country’s transition towards democracy. A brief overview is provided on the history and development of the South African intelligence community with specific focus on the civilian intelligence services from the period prior 1994 to date (2015. The main focus, however, is on intelligence education that is currently available from training institutions and universities in South Africa as registered with the Department of Higher Education as well as private training institutions on the one hand, and the intelligence training practices within the statutory intelligence environment on the other. To this extent, the relations between academic institutions and the intelligence structures in terms of education and training within South Africa are perused against other practices within the African continent and internationally. The approaches to the study of intelligence are also addressed within this paper. Likewise, the how, what as well as to whom – pertaining to intelligence education and training availability and accessibility to students and practitioners within South Africa, is reviewed and analysed with the focus on making recommendations for the enhancement and improvement thereof to enable a focus on preparing the next generation of professional intelligence officers.

  15. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  16. Impact of clinical surveillance during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    duration, number of infected herds and the economic losses from an epidemic. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was enhanced to include simulation of surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and the model was used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing......The objectives of this study were to assess, whether the current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could reduce epidemic...... showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds within one week of the zones establishment, as the regulations demand. Extra resources for surveillance did not reduce the costs of the epidemics, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Furthermore...

  17. Understanding Spatio-Temporal Variability in the Reproduction Ratio of the Bluetongue (BTV-1 Epidemic in Southern Spain (Andalusia in 2007 Using Epidemic Trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Napp

    Full Text Available Andalusia (Southern Spain is considered one of the main routes of introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV into Europe, evidenced by a devastating epidemic caused by BTV-1 in 2007. Understanding the pattern and the drivers of BTV-1 spread in Andalusia is critical for effective detection and control of future epidemics. A long-standing metric for quantifying the behaviour of infectious diseases is the case-reproduction ratio (Rt, defined as the average number of secondary cases arising from a single infected case at time t (for t>0. Here we apply a method using epidemic trees to estimate the between-herd case reproduction ratio directly from epidemic data allowing the spatial and temporal variability in transmission to be described. We then relate this variability to predictors describing the hosts, vectors and the environment to better understand why the epidemic spread more quickly in some regions or periods. The Rt value for the BTV-1 epidemic in Andalusia peaked in July at 4.6, at the start of the epidemic, then decreased to 2.2 by August, dropped below 1 by September (0.8, and by October it had decreased to 0.02. BTV spread was the consequence of both local transmission within established disease foci and BTV expansion to distant new areas (i.e. new foci, which resulted in a high variability in BTV transmission, not only among different areas, but particularly through time, which suggests that general control measures applied at broad spatial scales are unlikely to be effective. This high variability through time was probably due to the impact of temperature on BTV transmission, as evidenced by a reduction in the value of Rt by 0.0041 for every unit increase (day in the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, which is itself directly dependent on temperature. Moreover, within the range of values at which BTV-1 transmission occurred in Andalusia (20.6°C to 29.5°C there was a positive correlation between temperature and Rt values, although the

  18. K-12 Online Teacher Beliefs: Relationships among Intelligence, Confidence, Teacher-Student Interactions, and Student Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vander Ploeg, Guadalupe

    2012-01-01

    The vigorous expansion of online learning in K-12 education is a recent change to the conceptualization of schooling that has been occurring for more than 10 years. However, methods used for recruiting, hiring, and preparing online teachers have not been altered beyond the current federal standard defined by No Child Left Behind of Highly…

  19. Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-12-05

    A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

  20. ONLINE MARKETING. CHALLENGES AND OPORTUNITIES FOR THE MILITARY HIGHER EDUCATION

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe MINCULETE; Maria -Ana CHISEGA-NEGRILA

    2013-01-01

    The impact of the Internet on marketing is a radical phenomenon whose elements are diffi cult to quantify. The explosive dynamics of the phenomenon has determined unpredictable evolutions, shaking the very foundations of modern economics, and putting to the test modern managers’ ability, intelligence, and capacity to adapt. In this situation, online marketing is a challenge to organizations, taking into account the opportunities offered by the Internet at global level. In higher education, on...

  1. Modeling habitual and addictive smartphone behavior: The role of smartphone usage types, emotional intelligence, social stress, self-regulation, age, and gender

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Deursen, Alexander Johannes Aloysius Maria; Bolle, Colin L.; Hegner, Sabrina M.; Hegner, Sabrina; Kommers, Petrus A.M.

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the role of process and social oriented smartphone usage, emotional intelligence, social stress, self-regulation, gender, and age in relation to habitual and addictive smartphone behavior. We conducted an online survey among 386 respondents. The results revealed that

  2. Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

  3. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  4. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  5. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  6. Embedded intelligent adaptive PI controller for an electromechanical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Nagar, Ahmad M

    2016-09-01

    In this study, an intelligent adaptive controller approach using the interval type-2 fuzzy neural network (IT2FNN) is presented. The proposed controller consists of a lower level proportional - integral (PI) controller, which is the main controller and an upper level IT2FNN which tuning on-line the parameters of a PI controller. The proposed adaptive PI controller based on IT2FNN (API-IT2FNN) is implemented practically using the Arduino DUE kit for controlling the speed of a nonlinear DC motor-generator system. The parameters of the IT2FNN are tuned on-line using back-propagation algorithm. The Lyapunov theorem is used to derive the stability and convergence of the IT2FNN. The obtained experimental results, which are compared with other controllers, demonstrate that the proposed API-IT2FNN is able to improve the system response over a wide range of system uncertainties. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  8. Experiences and perceptions of online continuing professional development among clinicians in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldacker, Caryl; Jacob, Sheena; Chung, Michael H; Nartker, Anya; Kim, H Nina

    2017-12-29

    Limitations in healthcare worker (HCW) capacity compound the burden of dual TB and HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. To fill gaps in knowledge and skills, effective continuing profession development (CPD) initiatives are needed to support practicing HCWs reach high standards of care. e-learning opportunities can bring expert knowledge to HCWs in the field and provide a flexible learning option adaptable to local settings. Few studies provide insight into HCW experiences with online CPD in the developing country context. An online survey using both close-ended and free response was conducted to HCWs in sub-Saharan Africa who completed the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine online graduate course, "Clinical Management of HIV." Associations between respondent characteristics (age, gender, rural/urban, job title) and learning preferences, course barriers, and facilitators with an emphasis on online courses were examined using chi-square. Covariates significant at the p online course from work, noting that slow (55%) or limited (41%) internet as well as lack of time (53%) were barriers to course completion. Women (p online courses by noting the knowledge gains, the flexibility of format, a desire for recognition of course completion, and a request for additional online coursework. Online CPD opportunities were accepted across a diverse group of HCWs from sub-Saharan Africa and should be expanded to provide more flexible opportunities for self-initiated learning; however, these need to be responsive to the limited resources of those who seek these courses.

  9. A survey of open source tools for business intelligence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2005-01-01

    The industrial use of open source Business Intelligence (BI) tools is not yet common. It is therefore of interest to explore which possibilities are available for open source BI and compare the tools. In this survey paper, we consider the capabilities of a number of open source tools for BI....... In the paper, we consider three Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) tools, three On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) servers, two OLAP clients, and four database management systems (DBMSs). Further, we describe the licenses that the products are released under. It is argued that the ETL tools are still not very...

  10. The relationship of Emotional Intelligence with Academic Intelligence and the Big Five

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Zee, K.I.; Thijs, Melanie; Schakel, Lolle

    The present study examines the relationship of self- and other ratings of emotional intelligence with academic intelligence and personality, as well as the incremental validity of emotional intelligence beyond academic intelligence and personality in predicting academic and social success. A sample

  11. The relationship of emotional intelligence with academic intelligence and the Big Five

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, K; Thijs, M; Schakel, L

    2002-01-01

    The present study examines the relationship of self- and other ratings of emotional intelligence with academic intelligence and personality, as well as the incremental validity of emotional intelligence beyond academic intelligence and personality in predicting academic and social success. A sample

  12. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  13. Sequential detection of influenza epidemics by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Closas Pau

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Influenza is a well known and common human respiratory infection, causing significant morbidity and mortality every year. Despite Influenza variability, fast and reliable outbreak detection is required for health resource planning. Clinical health records, as published by the Diagnosticat database in Catalonia, host useful data for probabilistic detection of influenza outbreaks. Methods This paper proposes a statistical method to detect influenza epidemic activity. Non-epidemic incidence rates are modeled against the exponential distribution, and the maximum likelihood estimate for the decaying factor λ is calculated. The sequential detection algorithm updates the parameter as new data becomes available. Binary epidemic detection of weekly incidence rates is assessed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on the absolute difference between the empirical and the cumulative density function of the estimated exponential distribution with significance level 0 ≤ α ≤ 1. Results The main advantage with respect to other approaches is the adoption of a statistically meaningful test, which provides an indicator of epidemic activity with an associated probability. The detection algorithm was initiated with parameter λ0 = 3.8617 estimated from the training sequence (corresponding to non-epidemic incidence rates of the 2008-2009 influenza season and sequentially updated. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test detected the following weeks as epidemic for each influenza season: 50−10 (2008-2009 season, 38−50 (2009-2010 season, weeks 50−9 (2010-2011 season and weeks 3 to 12 for the current 2011-2012 season. Conclusions Real medical data was used to assess the validity of the approach, as well as to construct a realistic statistical model of weekly influenza incidence rates in non-epidemic periods. For the tested data, the results confirmed the ability of the algorithm to detect the start and the end of epidemic periods. In general, the proposed test could

  14. An Intelligent Fleet Condition-Based Maintenance Decision Making Method Based on Multi-Agent

    OpenAIRE

    Bo Sun; Qiang Feng; Songjie Li

    2012-01-01

    According to the demand for condition-based maintenance online decision making among a mission oriented fleet, an intelligent maintenance decision making method based on Multi-agent and heuristic rules is proposed. The process of condition-based maintenance within an aircraft fleet (each containing one or more Line Replaceable Modules) based on multiple maintenance thresholds is analyzed. Then the process is abstracted into a Multi-Agent Model, a 2-layer model structure containing host negoti...

  15. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  16. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. The impact of multiple information on coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yaohui; Yan, Zhijun

    2018-02-01

    Growing interest has emerged in the study of the interplay between awareness and epidemics in multiplex networks. However, previous studies on this issue usually assume that all aware individuals take the same level of precautions, ignoring individual heterogeneity. In this paper, we investigate the coupled awareness-epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks considering individual heterogeneity. Here, the precaution levels are heterogeneous and depend on three types of information: contact information and local and global prevalence information. The results show that contact-based precautions can decrease the epidemic prevalence and augment the epidemic threshold, but prevalence-based precautions, regardless of local or global information, can only decrease the epidemic prevalence. Moreover, unlike previous studies in single-layer networks, we do not find a greater impact of local prevalence information on the epidemic prevalence compared to global prevalence information. In addition, we find that the altruistic behaviors of infected individuals can effectively suppress epidemic spreading, especially when the level of contact-based precaution is high.

  18. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  19. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  20. Exploiting Mobile Ad Hoc Networking and Knowledge Generation to Achieve Ambient Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Lekova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ambient Intelligence (AmI joins together the fields of ubiquitous computing and communications, context awareness, and intelligent user interfaces. Energy, fault-tolerance, and mobility are newly added dimensions of AmI. Within the context of AmI the concept of mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs for “anytime and anywhere” is likely to play larger roles in the future in which people are surrounded and supported by small context-aware, cooperative, and nonobtrusive devices that will aid our everyday life. The connection between knowledge generation and communication ad hoc networking is symbiotic—knowledge generation utilizes ad hoc networking to perform their communication needs, and MANETs will utilize the knowledge generation to enhance their network services. The contribution of the present study is a distributed evolving fuzzy modeling framework (EFMF to observe and categorize relationships and activities in the user and application level and based on that social context to take intelligent decisions about MANETs service management. EFMF employs unsupervised online one-pass fuzzy clustering method to recognize nodes' mobility context from social scenario traces and ubiquitously learn “friends” and “strangers” indirectly and anonymously.

  1. A study of the laser power online detecting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiue; Zhang, Rong; Li, Yongzheng

    2008-12-01

    This article introduced a fundamental of new intelligent instruments. It can be used in laser power online detecting. Based in this theory, we have made a new intelligent mini-power meter. The device adopt SPCE061A MPU to control and process the all detected data, Its CPU core is used 16-bits MPU, it is a perfect unit in industry field. It can process complicated digital signals. Its detecting parts adopt high-speed responding and high-sensitive photoelectric dynatron 3DU13 to detecting the beam's output. It respond spectrum is from 0.4 to 1.1µm, can detect any other laser source's online detecting. Which locate in this spectrum range, optical design is made up of 45 degrees high reflect device and dark body scattering structure. The detector receive a little scatter light, use on-chip ADC to sampling the detector's output. By subsection, insert value linearity, proportion calculate to beam's output powers. And then real-time to displaying by LCD. It can communicate to PC by RS232. By communicate to upper instrument and others, the users can use detected data to achieve laser power's closed-loop control, to control laser source's real time output correctly and calibrating by itself. This mini-power meter need use standard power meter to calibrate in installing, after this process, the device can detect laser power's output from 1 to 200 watts correctly. It error is less than 5 percent.

  2. An intelligent condition monitoring system for on-line classification of machine tool wear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pan, Fu; Hope, A D; Javed, M [Systems Engineering Faculty, Southampton Institute (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-31

    The development of intelligent tool condition monitoring systems is a necessary requirement for successful automation of manufacturing processes. This presentation introduces a tool wear monitoring system for milling operations. The system utilizes power, force, acoustic emission and vibration sensors to monitor tool condition comprehensively. Features relevant to tool wear are drawn from time and frequency domain signals and a fuzzy pattern recognition technique is applied to combine the multisensor information and provide reliable classification results of tool wear states. (orig.) 10 refs.

  3. An intelligent condition monitoring system for on-line classification of machine tool wear

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fu Pan; Hope, A.D.; Javed, M. [Systems Engineering Faculty, Southampton Institute (United Kingdom)

    1997-12-31

    The development of intelligent tool condition monitoring systems is a necessary requirement for successful automation of manufacturing processes. This presentation introduces a tool wear monitoring system for milling operations. The system utilizes power, force, acoustic emission and vibration sensors to monitor tool condition comprehensively. Features relevant to tool wear are drawn from time and frequency domain signals and a fuzzy pattern recognition technique is applied to combine the multisensor information and provide reliable classification results of tool wear states. (orig.) 10 refs.

  4. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  5. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  6. On the relative role of different age groups in influenza epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worby, Colin J; Chaves, Sandra S; Wallinga, Jacco; Lipsitch, Marc; Finelli, Lyn; Goldstein, Edward

    2015-12-01

    The identification of key "driver" groups in influenza epidemics is of much interest for the implementation of effective public health response strategies, including vaccination programs. However, the relative importance of different age groups in propagating epidemics is uncertain. During a communicable disease outbreak, some groups may be disproportionately represented during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such groups or subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion of cases within the subpopulation occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several subpopulations (age groups) using data on laboratory-confirmed US influenza hospitalizations during epidemics between 2009-2014. Additionally, we simulated various influenza outbreaks in an age-stratified population, relating the RR to the impact of vaccination in each subpopulation on the epidemic's initial effective reproductive number R_e(0). We found that children aged 5-17 had the highest estimates of RR during the five largest influenza A outbreaks, though the relative magnitude of RR in this age group compared to other age groups varied, being highest for the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. For the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza B epidemics, adults aged 18-49, and 0-4 year-olds had the highest estimates of RR respectively. For 83% of simulated epidemics, the group with the highest RR was also the group for which initial distribution of a given quantity of vaccine would result in the largest reduction of R_e(0). In the largest 40% of simulated outbreaks, the group with the highest RR and the largest vaccination impact was children 5-17. While the relative importance of different age groups in propagating influenza outbreaks varies, children aged 5-17 play the leading role during the largest influenza A epidemics. Extra vaccination efforts for this group may contribute

  7. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  8. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  9. Artificial Intelligence Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Symposium on Aritificial Intelligence and Software Engineering Working Notes, March 1989. Blumenthal, Brad, "An Architecture for Automating...Artificial Intelligence Project Final Technical Report ARO Contract: DAAG29-84-K-OGO Artificial Intelligence LaboratO"ry The University of Texas at...Austin N>.. ~ ~ JA 1/I 1991 n~~~ Austin, Texas 78712 ________k A,.tificial Intelligence Project i Final Technical Report ARO Contract: DAAG29-84-K-0060

  10. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  11. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  12. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  13. Intelligently interactive combat simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogel, Lawrence J.; Porto, Vincent W.; Alexander, Steven M.

    2001-09-01

    To be fully effective, combat simulation must include an intelligently interactive enemy... one that can be calibrated. But human operated combat simulations are uncalibratable, for we learn during the engagement, there's no average enemy, and we cannot replicate their culture/personality. Rule-based combat simulations (expert systems) are not interactive. They do not take advantage of unexpected mistakes, learn, innovate, and reflect the changing mission/situation. And it is presumed that the enemy does not have a copy of the rules, that the available experts are good enough, that they know why they did what they did, that their combat experience provides a sufficient sample and that we know how to combine the rules offered by differing experts. Indeed, expert systems become increasingly complex, costly to develop, and brittle. They have face validity but may be misleading. In contrast, intelligently interactive combat simulation is purpose- driven. Each player is given a well-defined mission, reference to the available weapons/platforms, their dynamics, and the sensed environment. Optimal tactics are discovered online and in real-time by simulating phenotypic evolution in fast time. The initial behaviors are generated randomly or include hints. The process then learns without instruction. The Valuated State Space Approach provides a convenient way to represent any purpose/mission. Evolutionary programming searches the domain of possible tactics in a highly efficient manner. Coupled together, these provide a basis for cruise missile mission planning, and for driving tank warfare simulation. This approach is now being explored to benefit Air Force simulations by a shell that can enhance the original simulation.

  14. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  15. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  16. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  17. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  18. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  19. Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason D Bishai

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/. Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.MDR-TB epidemics propagated more extensively after TB prevalence had fallen. At a case detection rate of 75%, improving therapeutic compliance from 50% to 75% can reduce the probability of an epidemic from 45% to 15%. Paradoxically, improving the case-detection rate from 50% to 75% when compliance with DOT is constant at 75% increases the probability of MDR-TB epidemics from 3% to 45%.The ability of MDR-TB to spread depends on the prevalence of drug-susceptible TB. Immunologic protection conferred by exposure to drug-susceptible TB can be a crucial factor that prevents MDR-TB epidemics when TB treatment is poor. Any single population that successfully reduces its burden of drug-susceptible TB will have reduced herd immunity to externally or internally introduced strains of MDR-TB and can experience heightened vulnerability to an epidemic. Since countries with good TB control may be more vulnerable, their self interest dictates greater promotion of case detection and DOTS implementation in countries with poor control to control their risk of MDR-TB.

  20. Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

  1. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

  2. Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

    2015-05-01

    The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

  3. Routledge companion to intelligence studies

    CERN Document Server

    Dover, Robert; Hillebrand, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    The Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies provides a broad overview of the growing field of intelligence studies. The recent growth of interest in intelligence and security studies has led to an increased demand for popular depictions of intelligence and reference works to explain the architecture and underpinnings of intelligence activity. Divided into five comprehensive sections, this Companion provides a strong survey of the cutting-edge research in the field of intelligence studies: Part I: The evolution of intelligence studies; Part II: Abstract approaches to intelligence; Part III: Historical approaches to intelligence; Part IV: Systems of intelligence; Part V: Contemporary challenges. With a broad focus on the origins, practices and nature of intelligence, the book not only addresses classical issues, but also examines topics of recent interest in security studies. The overarching aim is to reveal the rich tapestry of intelligence studies in both a sophisticated and accessible way. This Companion...

  4. A Data-Driven Air Transportation Delay Propagation Model Using Epidemic Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Baspinar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a flight-based epidemic model and (b airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

  5. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  6. The Nigerian health care system: Need for integrating adequate medical intelligence and surveillance systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Menizibeya Osain Welcome

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives : As an important element of national security, public health not only functions to provide adequate and timely medical care but also track, monitor, and control disease outbreak. The Nigerian health care had suffered several infectious disease outbreaks year after year. Hence, there is need to tackle the problem. This study aims to review the state of the Nigerian health care system and to provide possible recommendations to the worsening state of health care in the country. To give up-to-date recommendations for the Nigerian health care system, this study also aims at reviewing the dynamics of health care in the United States, Britain, and Europe with regards to methods of medical intelligence/surveillance. Materials and Methods : Databases were searched for relevant literatures using the following keywords: Nigerian health care, Nigerian health care system, and Nigerian primary health care system. Additional keywords used in the search were as follows: United States (OR Europe health care dynamics, Medical Intelligence, Medical Intelligence systems, Public health surveillance systems, Nigerian medical intelligence, Nigerian surveillance systems, and Nigerian health information system. Literatures were searched in scientific databases Pubmed and African Journals OnLine. Internet searches were based on Google and Search Nigeria. Results : Medical intelligence and surveillance represent a very useful component in the health care system and control diseases outbreak, bioattack, etc. There is increasing role of automated-based medical intelligence and surveillance systems, in addition to the traditional manual pattern of document retrieval in advanced medical setting such as those in western and European countries. Conclusion : The Nigerian health care system is poorly developed. No adequate and functional surveillance systems are developed. To achieve success in health care in this modern era, a system well grounded in routine

  7. 78 FR 90 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Intelligence University Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-02

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Intelligence University Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: National Intelligence University, Defense Intelligence... hereby given that a closed meeting of the National Intelligence University Board of Visitors has been...

  8. An intelligent nuclear reactor core controller for load following operations, using recurrent neural networks and fuzzy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boroushaki, M.; Ghofrani, M.B.; Lucas, C.; Yazdanpanah, M.J.

    2003-01-01

    In the last decade, the intelligent control community has paid great attention to the topic of intelligent control systems for nuclear plants (core, steam generator...). Papers mostly used approximate and simple mathematical SISO (single-input-single-output) model of nuclear plants for testing and/or tuning of the control systems. They also tried to generalize theses models to a real MIMO (multi-input-multi-output) plant, while nuclear plants are typically of complex nonlinear and multivariable nature with high interactions between their state variables and therefore, many of these proposed intelligent control systems are not appropriate for real cases. In this paper, we designed an on-line intelligent core controller for load following operations, based on a heuristic control algorithm, using a valid and updatable recurrent neural network (RNN). We have used an accurate 3-dimensional core calculation code to represent the real plant and to train the RNN. The results of simulation show that this intelligent controller can control the reactor core during load following operations, using optimum control rod groups manoeuvre and variable overlapping strategy. This methodology represents a simple and reliable procedure for controlling other complex nonlinear MIMO plants, and may improve the responses, comparing to other control systems

  9. Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

  10. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  11. X Syndrome. The epidemic of the XXI century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirian Belkis Nápoles

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The humanity has always been tied to the emergence of epidemics and pandemics that affect the course of the history, of the development in entire civilizations. In the epidemiologic transition that happened in last century, the control of transmissible illnesses with the progress of the science and the prevention, it brought about the appearance of chronic not transmissible illnesses. The metabolic syndrome (SM also known as Multimetabolic Syndrome or X Syndrome, is only a constellation of factors of risk lipids and not lipids that can appear in sequential or simultaneous form in the same individual. The objective of the present bibliographical review is to mention some relevant aspects destined to know, prevent and treating to the X Syndrome. For the realization of the same one we base on two types of sources: written material and on-line material. We conclude that a primary prevention and an opportune change of the food habits, environmental factors and life styles, would lead to diminishing the appearance of the Metabolic Syndrome. The treatment is accessible to the patient, of low economical cost, of very easy application for the population, and whose finality will be to prevent complications and to diminish the risks of cardiovascular illness.

  12. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  13. Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

    2013-01-21

    The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  15. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  16. Intelligent products : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meyer, G.G.; Främling, K.; Holmström, J.

    This paper presents an overview of the field of Intelligent Products. As Intelligent Products have many facets, this paper is mainly focused on the concept behind Intelligent Products, the technical foundations, and the achievable practical goals of Intelligent Products. A novel classification of

  17. Benefits of collective intelligence: Swarm intelligent foraging, an ethnographic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivave Mashingaidze

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Wisdom of crowds; bees, colonies of ants, schools of fish, flocks of birds, and fireflies flashing synchronously are all examples of highly coordinated behaviors that emerge from collective, decentralized intelligence. This article is an ethnographic study of swarm intelligence foraging of swarms and the benefits derived from collective decision making. The author used using secondary data analysis to look at the benefits of swarm intelligence in decision making to achieve intended goals. Concepts like combined decision making and consensus were discussed and four principles of swarm intelligence were also discussed viz; coordination, cooperation, deliberation and collaboration. The research found out that collective decision making in swarms is the touchstone of achieving their goals. The research further recommended corporate to adopt collective intelligence for business sustainability.

  18. Intelligence: Real or artificial?

    OpenAIRE

    Schlinger, Henry D.

    1992-01-01

    Throughout the history of the artificial intelligence movement, researchers have strived to create computers that could simulate general human intelligence. This paper argues that workers in artificial intelligence have failed to achieve this goal because they adopted the wrong model of human behavior and intelligence, namely a cognitive essentialist model with origins in the traditional philosophies of natural intelligence. An analysis of the word “intelligence” suggests that it originally r...

  19. Realization of Intelligent Household Appliance Wireless Monitoring Network Based on LEACH Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weilong ZHOU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The intelligent household appliance wireless monitoring network can real-time monitor the apparent power and power factor of various household appliances in different indoor regions, and can realize the real-time monitoring on the household appliance working status and performance. The household appliance wireless monitoring network based on LEACH protocol is designed in the paper. Firstly, the basic idea of LEACH routing algorithm is proposed. Aiming at the node-distribution feature of intelligent home, the selection of cluster head in the routing algorithm and the data transmission method at the stable communication phase is modified. Moreover, the hardware circuit of power acquisition and power factor measurement is designed. The realization of wireless monitoring network based on CC2530 is described, each module and the whole system were conducted the on-line debugging. Finally, the system is proved to meet the practical requirement through the networking test.

  20. Global stability of a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model on networks with individual awareness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ke-Zan; Xu Zhong-Pu; Zhu Guang-Hu; Ding Yong

    2014-01-01

    Recent research results indicate that individual awareness can play an important influence on epidemic spreading in networks. By local stability analysis, a significant conclusion is that the embedded awareness in an epidemic network can increase its epidemic threshold. In this paper, by using limit theory and dynamical system theory, we further give global stability analysis of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks with awareness. Results show that the obtained epidemic threshold is also a global stability condition for its endemic equilibrium, which implies the embedded awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold globally. Some numerical examples are presented to verify the theoretical results. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  1. An artificial intelligence approach towards disturbance analysis in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindner, A.; Klebau, J.; Fielder, U.; Baldeweg, F.

    1987-01-01

    The scale and degree of sophistication of technological plants, e.g. nuclear power plants, have been essentially increased during the last decades. Conventional disturbance analysis systems have proved to work successfully in wellknown situations. But in cases of emergencies, the operator staff needs a more advanced assistance in realizing diagnosis and therapy control. The significance of introducing artificial intelligence methods in nuclear power technology is emphasized. Main features of the on-line disturbance analysis system SAAP-2 are reported about. It is being developed for application in nuclear power plants. 9 refs. (author)

  2. Applying of Content Analysis Method in Business Online Advertising Intelligence Extraction --Based on Advertising of China Three Telecom Operators%内容分析法在商业网络广告情报萃取中的运用——以中国三大电信运营商为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄晓斌; 钟辉新

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies the content analysis method combined with visualization tools UCINET to extract the marketing strategies and corporate strategic intelligence from banner advertising of three China telecom operators＇ online business hall. The results show that the content analysis method can effectively extract the marketing strategy and corporate strategic intelligence of telecom operators. Moreover, the strategies extracted from advertising are in good agreement with the company＇ s real strategies. Therefore, the content analysis method is an effective method for extracting business online advertising intelligence.%运用内容分析法，借助可视化工具UCINET，分析中国三大电信运营商网络营业厅横幅广告中隐含的营销战略和企业战略情报。结果表明：通过网络广告内容分析法能有效地萃取电信运营商的营销战略和企业战略情报，而且萃取出的企业战略情报与企业的真实战略有较好的一致性，说明内容分析法是一种行之有效的商业网络广告情报萃取的方法。

  3. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  4. Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

  5. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  6. 17th Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Krömer, Pavel; Köppen, Mario; Schaefer, Gerald

    2014-01-01

    This volume of Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing contains accepted papers presented at WSC17, the 17th Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications, held from December 2012 to January 2013 on the Internet. WSC17 continues a successful series of scientific events started over a decade ago by the World Federation of Soft Computing. It brought together researchers from over the world interested in the ever advancing state of the art in the field. Continuous technological improvements make this online forum a viable gathering format for a world class conference. The aim of WSC17 was to disseminate excellent research results and contribute to building a global network of scientists interested in both theoretical foundations and practical applications of soft computing.   The 2012 edition of the Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications consisted of general track and special session on Continuous Features Discretization for Anomaly Intrusion Detectors...

  7. Epidemic spreading on complex networks with overlapping and non-overlapping community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jiaxing; Liu, Lianchen; Li, Xin; Xie, Feng; Wu, Cheng

    2015-02-01

    Many real-world networks exhibit community structure where vertices belong to one or more communities. Recent studies show that community structure plays an import role in epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate how the extent of overlap among communities affects epidemics. In order to experiment on the characteristic of overlapping communities, we propose a rewiring algorithm that can change the community structure from overlapping to non-overlapping while maintaining the degree distribution of the network. We simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic process on synthetic scale-free networks and real-world networks by applying our rewiring algorithm. Experiments show that epidemics spread faster on networks with higher level of overlapping communities. Furthermore, overlapping communities' effect interacts with the average degree's effect. Our work further illustrates the important role of overlapping communities in the process of epidemic spreading.

  8. The importance of thinking beyond the water-supply in cholera epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phelps, Matthew D.; Azman, Andrew S.; Lewnard, Joseph A.

    2017-01-01

    the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some...... municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal. Author summary: John Snow’s seminal work on the London cholera epidemic and Broadway pump helped establish cholera......-cycle transmission to the epidemic. We find transmission between neighborhoods during the epidemic did not follow water pipe connections, suggesting little evidence of long-cycle transmission. Instead, we suggest that short-cycle transmission was likely critical to the propagation of the outbreak. Interventions...

  9. Does Online Technology Make Us More or Less Sociable? A Preliminary Review and Call for Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waytz, Adam; Gray, Kurt

    2018-05-01

    How does online technology affect sociability? Emerging evidence-much of it inconclusive-suggests a nuanced relationship between use of online technology (the Internet, social media, and virtual reality) and sociability (emotion recognition, empathy, perspective taking, and emotional intelligence). Although online technology can facilitate purely positive behavior (e.g., charitable giving) or purely negative behavior (e.g., cyberbullying), it appears to affect sociability in three ways, depending on whether it allows a deeper understanding of people's thoughts and feelings: (a) It benefits sociability when it complements already-deep offline engagement with others, (b) it impairs sociability when it supplants deeper offline engagement for superficial online engagement, and (c) it enhances sociability when deep offline engagement is otherwise difficult to attain. We suggest potential implications and moderators of technology's effects on sociability and call for additional causal research.

  10. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  11. Quality control of intelligence research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Yan; Xin Pingping; Wu Jian

    2014-01-01

    Quality control of intelligence research is the core issue of intelligence management, is a problem in study of information science This paper focuses on the performance of intelligence to explain the significance of intelligence research quality control. In summing up the results of the study on the basis of the analysis, discusses quality control methods in intelligence research, introduces the experience of foreign intelligence research quality control, proposes some recommendations to improve quality control in intelligence research. (authors)

  12. Intelligence Issues for Congress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-23

    open source information— osint (newspapers...by user agencies. Section 1052 of the Intelligence Reform Act expressed the sense of Congress that there should be an open source intelligence ...center to coordinate the collection, analysis, production, and dissemination of open source intelligence to other intelligence agencies. An Open Source

  13. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  14. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  15. Orchestrating Multiple Intelligences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Seana; Kornhaber, Mindy; Gardner, Howard

    2006-01-01

    Education policymakers often go astray when they attempt to integrate multiple intelligences theory into schools, according to the originator of the theory, Howard Gardner, and his colleagues. The greatest potential of a multiple intelligences approach to education grows from the concept of a profile of intelligences. Each learner's intelligence…

  16. How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Gou

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

  17. Semantic Business Intelligence - a New Generation of Business Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu AIRINEI

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Business Intelligence Solutions represents applications used by companies to manage process and analyze data to provide substantiated decision. In the context of Semantic Web develop-ment trend is to integrate semantic unstructured data, making business intelligence solutions to be redesigned in such a manner that can analyze, process and synthesize, in addition to traditional data and data integrated with semantic another form and structure. This invariably leads appearance of new BI solution, called Semantic Business Intelligence.

  18. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  19. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  20. Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

  1. Research of Classical and Intelligent Information System Solutions for Criminal Intelligence Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Šimović, Vladimir

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to present research on classical and intelligent information system solutions used in criminal intelligence analysis in Croatian security system theory. The study analyses objective and classical methods of information science, including artificial intelligence and other scientific methods. The intelligence and classical software solutions researched, proposed, and presented in this study were used in developing the integrated information system for the Croatian...

  2. Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

    2015-01-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

  3. Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

    2010-08-01

    During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic

  4. Artificial Consciousness or Artificial Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Spanache Florin

    2017-01-01

    Artificial intelligence is a tool designed by people for the gratification of their own creative ego, so we can not confuse conscience with intelligence and not even intelligence in its human representation with conscience. They are all different concepts and they have different uses. Philosophically, there are differences between autonomous people and automatic artificial intelligence. This is the difference between intelligence and artificial intelligence, autonomous versus a...

  5. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  6. Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

  7. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  8. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  9. Intelligent mechatronics; Intelligent mechatronics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashimoto, H. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Institute of Industrial Science

    1995-10-01

    Intelligent mechatronics (IM) was explained as follows: a study of IM essentially targets realization of a robot namely, but in the present stage the target is a creation of new values by intellectualization of machine, that is, a combination of the information infrastructure and the intelligent machine system. IM is also thought to be constituted of computers positively used and micromechatronics. The paper next introduces examples of IM study, mainly those the author is concerned with as shown below: sensor gloves, robot hands, robot eyes, tele operation, three-dimensional object recognition, mobile robot, magnetic bearing, construction of remote controlled unmanned dam, robot network, sensitivity communication using neuro baby, etc. 27 figs.

  10. Brain Intelligence: Go Beyond Artificial Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Huimin; Li, Yujie; Chen, Min; Kim, Hyoungseop; Serikawa, Seiichi

    2017-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is an important technology that supports daily social life and economic activities. It contributes greatly to the sustainable growth of Japan's economy and solves various social problems. In recent years, AI has attracted attention as a key for growth in developed countries such as Europe and the United States and developing countries such as China and India. The attention has been focused mainly on developing new artificial intelligence information communication ...

  11. Business Intelligence Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan NEDELCU

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to show the importance of business intelligence and its growing influence. It also shows when the concept of business intelligence was used for the first time and how it evolved over time. The paper discusses the utility of a business intelligence system in any organization and its contribution to daily activities. Furthermore, we highlight the role and the objectives of business intelligence systems inside an organization and the needs to grow the incomes and reduce the costs, to manage the complexity of the business environment and to cut IT costs so that the organization survives in the current competitive climate. The article contains information about architectural principles of a business intelligence system and how such a system can be achieved.

  12. Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H S Girgia

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

  13. Effective degree Markov-chain approach for discrete-time epidemic processes on uncorrelated networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

    2014-11-01

    Recently, Gómez et al. proposed a microscopic Markov-chain approach (MMCA) [S. Gómez, J. Gómez-Gardeñes, Y. Moreno, and A. Arenas, Phys. Rev. E 84, 036105 (2011)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.84.036105] to the discrete-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic process and found that the epidemic prevalence obtained by this approach agrees well with that by simulations. However, we found that the approach cannot be straightforwardly extended to a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic process (due to its irreversible property), and the epidemic prevalences obtained by MMCA and Monte Carlo simulations do not match well when the infection probability is just slightly above the epidemic threshold. In this contribution we extend the effective degree Markov-chain approach, proposed for analyzing continuous-time epidemic processes [J. Lindquist, J. Ma, P. Driessche, and F. Willeboordse, J. Math. Biol. 62, 143 (2011)JMBLAJ0303-681210.1007/s00285-010-0331-2], to address discrete-time binary-state (SIS) or three-state (SIR) epidemic processes on uncorrelated complex networks. It is shown that the final epidemic size as well as the time series of infected individuals obtained from this approach agree very well with those by Monte Carlo simulations. Our results are robust to the change of different parameters, including the total population size, the infection probability, the recovery probability, the average degree, and the degree distribution of the underlying networks.

  14. Professionalizing Intelligence Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B. Bruce

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the current state of professionalism in national security intelligence analysis in the U.S. Government. Since the introduction of major intelligence reforms directed by the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA in December, 2004, we have seen notable strides in many aspects of intelligence professionalization, including in analysis. But progress is halting, uneven, and by no means permanent. To consolidate its gains, and if it is to continue improving, the U.S. intelligence community (IC should commit itself to accomplishing a new program of further professionalization of analysis to ensure that it will develop an analytic cadre that is fully prepared to deal with the complexities of an emerging multipolar and highly dynamic world that the IC itself is forecasting. Some recent reforms in intelligence analysis can be assessed against established standards of more fully developed professions; these may well fall short of moving the IC closer to the more fully professionalized analytical capability required for producing the kind of analysis needed now by the United States.

  15. Revolutionary Intelligence: The Expanding Intelligence Role of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udit Banerjea

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC is a military and paramilitary organization that is meant to defend the ideals of the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979. Since its formation, the IRGC has grown in influence and its intelligence role has expanded. This paper examines the role of the IRGC in Iran’s intelligence system through a comprehensive analysis of the organization of the IRGC’s intelligence arm, along with its operations and capabilities. In doing so, the scope, objectives, resources, customers, and sponsors of the IRGC’s intelligence activities are also analyzed. Additionally, this paper explores how the IRGC interacts with the government of Iran, the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS, other key internal stakeholders, and foreign client organizations. A key focus of this analysis is the evolution of the relationship between the IRGC and the MOIS and the growing influence of the IRGC in Iran’s intelligence community over the last decade. The paper concludes that the IRGC has now eclipsed the MOIS within Iran’s intelligence community and is one of the most powerful institutions in Iranian politics today, using its intelligence activities as its key means of maintaining power and influence within the country.

  16. ONLINE MARKETING. CHALLENGES AND OPORTUNITIES FOR THE MILITARY HIGHER EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe MINCULETE

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the Internet on marketing is a radical phenomenon whose elements are diffi cult to quantify. The explosive dynamics of the phenomenon has determined unpredictable evolutions, shaking the very foundations of modern economics, and putting to the test modern managers’ ability, intelligence, and capacity to adapt. In this situation, online marketing is a challenge to organizations, taking into account the opportunities offered by the Internet at global level. In higher education, online marketing is a rapid way to form and develop the image of an institution regarding not only the implementation of strategies, policies, plans, and educational programs, but also the better use of products and services that accompany the offers according to the requests of beneficiaries or interested users. This article stresses the essential aspects of educational marketing whose requests become viable through e-marketing. To this end, we will approach the mechanism of online marketing, and further, we will concentrate on its applications for higher military education. In addition, we will approach eLearning as a modern electronic system to implement e-marketing objects.

  17. A model-based approach to on-line process disturbance management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, I.S.

    1988-01-01

    The methodology developed can be applied to the design of a real-time expert system to aid control-room operators in coping with process abnormalities. The approach encompasses diverse functional aspects required for an effective on-line process disturbance management: (1) intelligent process monitoring and alarming, (2) on-line sensor data validation, (3) on-line sensor and hardware (except sensors) fault diagnosis, and (4) real-time corrective measure synthesis. Accomplishment of these functions is made possible through the application of various models, goal-tree success-tree, process monitor-tree, sensor failure diagnosis, and hardware failure diagnosis models. The models used in the methodology facilitate not only the knowledge-acquisition process - a bottleneck in the development of an expert system - but also the reasoning process of the knowledge-based system. These transparent models and model-based reasoning significantly enhance the maintainability of the real-time expert systems. The proposed approach was applied to the feedwater control system of a nuclear power plant, and implemented into a real-time expert system, MOAS II, using the expert system shell, PICON, on the LMI machine

  18. 77 FR 32952 - Defense Intelligence Agency National Intelligence University Board of Visitors Closed Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-04

    ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Intelligence Agency National Intelligence University Board of Visitors Closed Meeting AGENCY: Department of Defense, Defense Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence University. ACTION: Notice of closed meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the provisions of...

  19. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  20. Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

    2013-01-01

    In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

  1. Dynamic behavior of the interaction between epidemics and cascades on heterogeneous networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lurong; Jin, Xinyu; Xia, Yongxiang; Ouyang, Bo; Wu, Duanpo

    2014-12-01

    Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes on complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long time. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with the SIR epidemic spreading model and a local load sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of the tolerance parameter for which the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value, the cascading failure cuts off the abundance of paths and blocks the spreading of the epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical value, the epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulations, we verify the effectiveness of this method in the uncorrelated configuration model (UCM) scale-free networks.

  2. Intelligent playgrounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lasse Juel

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines play, gaming and learning in regard to intelligent playware developed for outdoor use. The key questions are how does these novel artefacts influence the concept of play, gaming and learning. Up until now play and game have been understood as different activities. This paper...... examines if the sharp differentiation between the two can be uphold in regard to intelligent playware for outdoor use. Play and game activities will be analysed and viewed in conjunction with learning contexts. This paper will stipulate that intelligent playware facilitates rapid shifts in contexts...

  3. Artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Ennals, J R

    1987-01-01

    Artificial Intelligence: State of the Art Report is a two-part report consisting of the invited papers and the analysis. The editor first gives an introduction to the invited papers before presenting each paper and the analysis, and then concludes with the list of references related to the study. The invited papers explore the various aspects of artificial intelligence. The analysis part assesses the major advances in artificial intelligence and provides a balanced analysis of the state of the art in this field. The Bibliography compiles the most important published material on the subject of

  4. Descriptive epidemiology of typhoid fever during an epidemic in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polonsky, Jonathan A; Martínez-Pino, Isabel; Nackers, Fabienne; Chonzi, Prosper; Manangazira, Portia; Van Herp, Michel; Maes, Peter; Porten, Klaudia; Luquero, Francisco J

    2014-01-01

    Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare. A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic. This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.

  5. Evaluating neighborhood structures for modeling intercity diffusion of large-scale dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Hsu, Ching-Shun; Hu, Ming-Che

    2018-05-03

    Dengue fever is a vector-borne infectious disease that is transmitted by contact between vector mosquitoes and susceptible hosts. The literature has addressed the issue on quantifying the effect of individual mobility on dengue transmission. However, there are methodological concerns in the spatial regression model configuration for examining the effect of intercity-scale human mobility on dengue diffusion. The purposes of the study are to investigate the influence of neighborhood structures on intercity epidemic progression from pre-epidemic to epidemic periods and to compare definitions of different neighborhood structures for interpreting the spread of dengue epidemics. We proposed a framework for assessing the effect of model configurations on dengue incidence in 2014 and 2015, which were the most severe outbreaks in 70 years in Taiwan. Compared with the conventional model configuration in spatial regression analysis, our proposed model used a radiation model, which reflects population flow between townships, as a spatial weight to capture the structure of human mobility. The results of our model demonstrate better model fitting performance, indicating that the structure of human mobility has better explanatory power in dengue diffusion than the geometric structure of administration boundaries and geographic distance between centroids of cities. We also identified spatial-temporal hierarchy of dengue diffusion: dengue incidence would be influenced by its immediate neighboring townships during pre-epidemic and epidemic periods, and also with more distant neighbors (based on mobility) in pre-epidemic periods. Our findings suggest that the structure of population mobility could more reasonably capture urban-to-urban interactions, which implies that the hub cities could be a "bridge" for large-scale transmission and make townships that immediately connect to hub cities more vulnerable to dengue epidemics.

  6. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

    2016-12-01

    Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Fault diagnosis of an intelligent hydraulic pump based on a nonlinear unknown input observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhonghai MA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic piston pumps are commonly used in aircraft. In order to improve the viability of aircraft and energy efficiency, intelligent variable pressure pump systems have been used in aircraft hydraulic systems more and more widely. Efficient fault diagnosis plays an important role in improving the reliability and performance of hydraulic systems. In this paper, a fault diagnosis method of an intelligent hydraulic pump system (IHPS based on a nonlinear unknown input observer (NUIO is proposed. Different from factors of a full-order Luenberger-type unknown input observer, nonlinear factors of the IHPS are considered in the NUIO. Firstly, a new type of intelligent pump is presented, the mathematical model of which is established to describe the IHPS. Taking into account the real-time requirements of the IHPS and the special structure of the pump, the mechanism of the intelligent pump and failure modes are analyzed and two typical failure modes are obtained. Furthermore, a NUIO of the IHPS is performed based on the output pressure and swashplate angle signals. With the residual error signals produced by the NUIO, online intelligent pump failure occurring in real-time can be detected. Lastly, through analysis and simulation, it is confirmed that this diagnostic method could accurately diagnose and isolate those typical failure modes of the nonlinear IHPS. The method proposed in this paper is of great significance in improving the reliability of the IHPS. Keywords: Fault diagnosis, Hydraulic piston pump, Model-based, Nonlinear unknown input observer (NUIO, Residual error

  9. Advanced intelligence and mechanism approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHONG Yixin

    2007-01-01

    Advanced intelligence will feature the intelligence research in next 50 years.An understanding of the concept of advanced intelligence as well as its importance will be provided first,and detailed analysis on an approach,the mechanism approach.suitable to the advanced intelligence research will then be flolowed.And the mutual relationship among mechanism approach,traditional approaches existed in artificial intelligence research,and the cognitive informatics will be discussed.It is interesting to discover that mechanism approach is a good one to the Advanced Intelligence research and a tmified form of the existed approaches to artificial intelligence.

  10. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  11. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  12. Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn Orbann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model structure. Papers describing computer models of infectious disease often lack a clear description of how the data are aggregated and whether or not non-epidemic runs are excluded from analyses. Given that there is no concrete quantitative definition of what constitutes an epidemic within the public health literature, each modeler must decide on a strategy for identifying epidemics during simulation runs. Here, an SEIR model was used to test the effects of how varying the cutoff for considering a run an epidemic changes potential interpretations of simulation outcomes. Varying the cutoff from 0% to 15% of the model population ever infected with the illness generated significant differences in numbers of dead and timing variables. These results are important for those who use models to form public health policy, in which questions of timing or implementation of interventions might be answered using findings from computer simulation models.

  13. A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blower Sally

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, the promise of a new universal long-term flu vaccine has become more tangible than ever before. Such a vaccine would protect against very many seasonal and pandemic flu strains for many years, making annual vaccination unnecessary. However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year. Findings To predict the impact of universal long-term flu vaccines on influenza epidemics we developed a mathematical model that linked human cognition and memory with the transmission dynamics of influenza. Our modeling shows that universal vaccines that provide short-term protection are likely to result in small frequent epidemics, whereas universal vaccines that provide long-term protection are likely to result in severe infrequent epidemics. Conclusions Influenza vaccines that provide short-term protection maintain risk awareness regarding influenza in the population and result in stable vaccination coverage. Vaccines that provide long-term protection could lead to substantial drops in vaccination coverage and should therefore include an annual epidemic risk awareness programs in order to minimize the risk of severe epidemics.

  14. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  15. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  17. Computational Intelligence in Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nürnberger, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems and their phenomena are ubiquitous as they can be found in biology, finance, the humanities, management sciences, medicine, physics and similar fields. For many problems in these fields, there are no conventional ways to mathematically or analytically solve them completely at low cost. On the other hand, nature already solved many optimization problems efficiently. Computational intelligence attempts to mimic nature-inspired problem-solving strategies and methods. These strategies can be used to study, model and analyze complex systems such that it becomes feasible to handle them. Key areas of computational intelligence are artificial neural networks, evolutionary computation and fuzzy systems. As only a few researchers in that field, Rudolf Kruse has contributed in many important ways to the understanding, modeling and application of computational intelligence methods. On occasion of his 60th birthday, a collection of original papers of leading researchers in the field of computational intell...

  18. The threshold of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic delayed SIR epidemic model with vaccination. We obtain sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence in the mean of the epidemic. The threshold between persistence in the mean and extinction of the stochastic system is also obtained. Compared with the corresponding deterministic model, the threshold affected by the white noise is smaller than the basic reproduction number Rbar0 of the deterministic system. Results show that time delay has important effects on the persistence and extinction of the epidemic.

  19. Before and Beyond Anticipatory Intelligence: Assessing the Potential for Crowdsourcing and Intelligence Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Halman

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Crowdsourcing is a new tool for businesses, academics, and now intelligence analysts. Enabled by recent technology, crowdsourcing allows researchers to harness the wisdom of crowds and provide recommendations and insight into complex problems. This paper examines the potential benefits and limitations of crowdsourcing for intelligence analysis and the intelligence community beyond its primary use: anticipatory intelligence. The author constructs a model and compares it to existing crowdsourcing theories in business, information science, and public policy. Finally, he offers advice for intelligence analysis and public policy.

  20. 2015 Chinese Intelligent Systems Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Du, Junping; Li, Hongbo; Zhang, Weicun; CISC’15

    2016-01-01

    This book presents selected research papers from the 2015 Chinese Intelligent Systems Conference (CISC’15), held in Yangzhou, China. The topics covered include multi-agent systems, evolutionary computation, artificial intelligence, complex systems, computation intelligence and soft computing, intelligent control, advanced control technology, robotics and applications, intelligent information processing, iterative learning control, and machine learning. Engineers and researchers from academia, industry and the government can gain valuable insights into solutions combining ideas from multiple disciplines in the field of intelligent systems.

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