A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Xavier A

2015-01-01

Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE) to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non-Beta-Binomial data. Finally, both OLRE and Beta-Binomial models performed

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

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Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

A comparison of observation-level random effect and Beta-Binomial models for modelling overdispersion in Binomial data in ecology & evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier A. Harrison

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Overdispersion is a common feature of models of biological data, but researchers often fail to model the excess variation driving the overdispersion, resulting in biased parameter estimates and standard errors. Quantifying and modeling overdispersion when it is present is therefore critical for robust biological inference. One means to account for overdispersion is to add an observation-level random effect (OLRE to a model, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that can absorb the extra-parametric variation in the data. Although some studies have investigated the utility of OLRE to model overdispersion in Poisson count data, studies doing so for Binomial proportion data are scarce. Here I use a simulation approach to investigate the ability of both OLRE models and Beta-Binomial models to recover unbiased parameter estimates in mixed effects models of Binomial data under various degrees of overdispersion. In addition, as ecologists often fit random intercept terms to models when the random effect sample size is low (<5 levels, I investigate the performance of both model types under a range of random effect sample sizes when overdispersion is present. Simulation results revealed that the efficacy of OLRE depends on the process that generated the overdispersion; OLRE failed to cope with overdispersion generated from a Beta-Binomial mixture model, leading to biased slope and intercept estimates, but performed well for overdispersion generated by adding random noise to the linear predictor. Comparison of parameter estimates from an OLRE model with those from its corresponding Beta-Binomial model readily identified when OLRE were performing poorly due to disagreement between effect sizes, and this strategy should be employed whenever OLRE are used for Binomial data to assess their reliability. Beta-Binomial models performed well across all contexts, but showed a tendency to underestimate effect sizes when modelling non

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Olsen, Are; Heinze, Christoph; Bopp, Laurent; Roy, Tilla

2014-01-01

We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO 2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO 2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake, while ocean pCO 2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO 2 uptake. Aside from the western sub-polar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO 2 trends is found when the simulated fields are sub sampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO 2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO 2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970-2011) period, the simulated regional pCO 2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO 2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO 2 growth rates are projected for the sub-polar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO 2 growth rate. Our work

Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerry F. Tjiputra

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011 period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

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Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

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Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

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Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

2015-01-01

This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

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Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Classification of Clouds and Deep Convection from GEOS-5 Using Satellite Observations

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Putman, William; Suarez, Max

2010-01-01

With the increased resolution of global atmospheric models and the push toward global cloud resolving models, the resemblance of model output to satellite observations has become strikingly similar. As we progress with our adaptation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) as a high resolution cloud system resolving model, evaluation of cloud properties and deep convection require in-depth analysis beyond a visual comparison. Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) provides a sufficient comparison with infrared (IR) satellite imagery to isolate areas of deep convection. We have adopted a binning technique to generate a series of histograms for OLR which classify the presence and fraction of clear sky versus deep convection in the tropics that can be compared with a similar analyses of IR imagery from composite Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) observations. We will present initial results that have been used to evaluate the amount of deep convective parameterization required within the model as we move toward cloud system resolving resolutions of 10- to 1-km globally.

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

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Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, Lisa

2007-01-01

Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

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Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Rigorous determination of stratospheric water vapor trends from MIPAS observations.

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Ceccherini, Simone; Carli, Bruno; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco

2011-05-09

The trend of stratospheric water vapor as a function of latitude is estimated by the MIPAS measurements by means of a new method that uses the measurement space solution. The method uses all the information provided by the observations avoiding the artifacts introduced by the a priori information and by the interpolation to different vertical grids. The analysis provides very precise values of the trends that, however, are limited by a relatively large systematic error induced by the radiometric calibration error of the instrument. The results show in the five years from 2005 to 2009 a dependence on latitude of the stratospheric (from 37 to 53 km) water vapor trend with a positive value of (0.41 ± 0.16)%yr-1 in the northern hemisphere and less than 0.16%yr-1 in the southern hemisphere.

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-10-01

Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

First Satellite-detected Perturbations of Outgoing Longwave Radiation Associated with Blowing Snow Events over Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yuekui; Palm, Stephen P.; Marshak, Alexander; Wu, Dong L.; Yu, Hongbin; Fu, Qiang

2014-01-01

We present the first satellite-detected perturbations of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) associated with blowing snow events over the Antarctic ice sheet using data from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System. Significant cloud-free OLR differences are observed between the clear and blowing snow sky, with the sign andmagnitude depending on season and time of the day. During nighttime, OLRs are usually larger when blowing snow is present; the average difference in OLRs between without and with blowing snow over the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is about 5.2 W/m2 for the winter months of 2009. During daytime, in contrast, the OLR perturbation is usually smaller or even has the opposite sign. The observed seasonal variations and day-night differences in the OLR perturbation are consistent with theoretical calculations of the influence of blowing snow on OLR. Detailed atmospheric profiles are needed to quantify the radiative effect of blowing snow from the satellite observations.

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Biomass characterization by dielectric monitoring of viability and oxygen uptake rate measurements in a novel membrane bioreactor.

Science.gov (United States)

Shariati, Farshid Pajoum; Heran, Marc; Sarrafzadeh, Mohammad Hossein; Mehrnia, Mohammad Reza; Sarzana, Gabriele; Ghommidh, Charles; Grasmick, Alain

2013-07-01

The application of permittivity and oxygen uptake rate (OUR) as biological process control parameters in a wastewater treatment system was evaluated. Experiments were carried out in a novel airlift oxidation ditch membrane bioreactor under different organic loading rates (OLR). Permittivity as representative of activated sludge viability was measured by a capacitive on-line sensor. OUR was also measured as a representative for respirometric activity. Results showed that the biomass concentration increases with OLR and all biomass related measurements and simulators such as MLSS, permittivity, OUR, ASM1 and ASM3 almost follow the same increasing trends. The viability of biomass decreased when the OLR was reduced from 5 to 4 kg COD m(-3)d(-1). During decreasing of OLR, biomass related parameters generally decreased but not in a similar manner. Also, protein concentration in the system during OLR decreasing changed inversely with the activated sludge viability. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

Science.gov (United States)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Temperature properties in the tropical tropopause layer and their correlations with Outgoing Longwave Radiation: FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kaiti; Wu, Yi-chao; Lin, Jia-Ting; Tan, Pei-Hua

2018-06-01

The properties of temperature at the level of lapse rate minimum (LRM) in the tropical tropopause layer between 20°S and 20°N are investigated using 3-year radio occultation observations based on the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from November of 2006 to October of 2009. The correlations between this LRM temperature and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) are analyzed by 5° × 5° grids in longitude and latitude. Two primary regions, one from 60°E to 180°E and the other from 90°W to 30°E, are found to have higher correlations and can be associated with regions of lower OLR values. The patterns of this spatial distributions of regions with higher correlations begin to change more obviously when the altitude ascends to the level of Cold Point Tropopause (CPT). This correlation at the LRM altitude in annual and seasonal scales also shows spatial distributions associated with OLR intensities. The altitudinal dependence of the correlations between temperature and OLR is further analyzed based on grids of high correlations with significance at LRM altitude, for the two primary regions. The results show that for the different time scales in this analysis (3-year, annual, and seasonal), the correlations all gradually decrease above the LRM levels but maintain a significant level to as high as 2.5-3.5 km. Below the LRM level, the correlation decreases with a slower rate as the altitude descends and still keeps significant at the deep 5 km level. These suggest that the vertical temperature profiles could be affected by the convection mechanism for a wide range of altitudes in the troposphere even above LRM altitude. Applying the same analysis on one complete La Niña event during the survey period also reveals similar features.

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will

Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuanji Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

Shift of subtropical transport barriers explains observed hemispheric asymmetry of decadal trends of age of air

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G. P. Stiller

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In response to global warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere is expected to accelerate and the mean transport time of air along this circulation to decrease. This would imply a negative stratospheric age of air trend, i.e. an air parcel would need less time to travel from the tropopause to any point in the stratosphere. Age of air as inferred from tracer observations, however, shows zero to positive trends in the northern mid-latitude stratosphere and zonally asymmetric patterns. Using satellite observations and model calculations we show that the observed latitudinal and vertical patterns of the decadal changes of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere during the period 2002–2012 are predominantly caused by a southward shift of the circulation pattern by about 5°. After correction for this shift, the observations reveal a hemispherically almost symmetric decrease of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere up to 800 K of up to −0.25 years over the 2002–2012 period with strongest decrease in the northern tropics. This net change is consistent with long-term trends from model predictions.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Trends of light particle spectra observed in nucleus-nucleus collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Awes, T.C.; Poggi, G.; Saini, S.; Gelbke, C.K.; Legrain, R.; Westfall, G.D.

1981-01-01

The emission of energetic light particles (p,d,t) has been studied for 16 O induced reactions on Al, Zr and Au targets at the incident energies of 140, 215 and 310 MeV. The light-particle energy spectra have been analyzed in terms of a moving thermal source. The apparent temperatures exhibit a systematic variation as a function of the incident energy per nucleon above the Coulomb barrier. The observed trend can be extrapolated in a smooth fashion to temperatures obtained in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. (orig.)

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Vigouroux

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH₄, C₂H₆, N₂O, CHClF₂, and O₃ have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

Noctilucent clouds observed from the UK and Denmark – trends and variations over 43 years

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S. Kirkwood

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The combined UK/Denmark record of noctilucent cloud (NLC observations over the period 1964–2006 is analysed. This data set is based on visual observations by professional and voluntary observers, with around 40 observers each year contributing reports. Evidence is found for a significantly longer NLC season, a greater frequency of bright NLC, and a decreased sensitivity to 5-day planetary waves, from 1973–1982, compared to the rest of the time interval. This coincides with a period when the length of the summer season in the stratosphere was also longer (defined by zonal winds at 60° N, 30 hPa. At NLC heights, lower mean temperatures, and/or higher water vapour and/or smaller planetary wave amplitudes could explain these results. The time series of number of NLC nights each year shows a quasi-decadal variation with good anti-correlation with the 10.7 cm solar flux, with a lag of 13–17 months. Using multi-parameter linear fitting, it is found that the solar-cycle and the length of summer in the stratosphere together can explain ~40% of the year-to-year variation in NLC numbers. However, no statistically confidant long-term trend in moderate or bright NLC is found. For NLC displays of moderate or greater intensity, the multi-parameter fit gives a trend of ~0.08 nights (0.35% per year with a statistical probability of 28% that it is zero, or as high as 0.16 nights (0.7% per year. There is a significant increasing trend in the number of reports of faint or very faint NLC which is inconsistent with other observations and may be due changes in observing practices.

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Contributions to Climate Research Using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 Products

Science.gov (United States)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2011-01-01

This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLR(sub CLR) are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. This relationship can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions

Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO missions observations and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krivanek, Robert, E-mail: r.krivanek@iaea.org [Operational Safety Section, Department of Nuclear Safety and Security, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna 1400 (Austria); Havel, Radim, E-mail: Radim.Havel@gmail.com [RESCO, Nitranska 894/8, 10100 Praha 10 (Czech Republic)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • During the period 2005–mid 2015, 22 SALTO peer review missions and 2 LTO modules of OSART missions were conducted. • Analysis of these mission results and main trends observed are gathered in this paper. • The main task of the assessment performed was to evaluate and give a weight to the evaluation. • Results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions with LTO module are summarized. • The SALTO peer review service is strongly recommended for NPPs prior to entering LTO period. - Abstract: This paper builds on paper “Long term operation of nuclear power plants – IAEA SALTO peer review service and its results”, NED8070, presented in Nuclear Engineering and Design in September 2014. This paper presents the analysis of SALTO mission results and main trends observed so that all the most important results of SALTO missions are gathered in one paper. The paper also includes the results of LTO module reviews performed in the frame of OSART missions where applicable as well as follow-up missions. This paper is divided in three main Sections. Section 1 provides brief introduction to SALTO peer review service. Section 2 provides overview of performed SALTO missions and LTO modules of OSART missions performed between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 3 summarizes the most significant observations and trends resulting from the missions between 2005 and mid-2015. Section 4 summarizes the results of SALTO follow-up missions as well as OSART follow-up missions.

Mismatch between observed and modeled trends in dissolved upper-ocean oxygen over the last 50 yr

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Stramma

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 yr. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 yr, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is –0.066 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO₂-induced climate change. However, the pattern correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 yr. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO₂-induced enhancement of the C : N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.027 to –0.047 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for climatological wind forcing, with a much larger range of –0.083 to +0.027 μmol kg⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for different initializations of sensitivity runs with reanalysis wind forcing. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Trends in observable passive solar design strategies for existing homes in the U.S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruzner, Kelly; Cox, Kristin; Machmer, Brian; Klotz, Leidy

2013-01-01

Passive design strategies are among the most cost-effective methods to reduce energy consumption in buildings. However, the prevalence of these strategies in existing U.S. homes is not well understood. To help address this issue, this research evaluated a nationally-representative sample of 1000 existing homes distributed geographically across the U.S. Using satellite images, each building was evaluated for three passive design strategies: orientation, roof color, and level of shading. Several statistically significant regional trends were identified. For example, existing homes in the High Plains, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and Southern regions show a statistically significant trend towards orientation in the East–West direction, an effective passive design strategy. Less intuitively, in terms of what would seem to be optimal passive design, buildings in the High Plains and Ohio Valley generally have lighter roof colors than buildings in the warmer Southwest region. At the national level, no statistically significant trends were found towards the passive design strategies evaluated. These trends give us no reason to believe they were a major consideration in the design of existing homes. Policy measures and education may be required to take advantage of the opportunity for cost-effective energy savings through more widespread passive solar design. - Highlights: ► GoogleMaps to examine implementation of cost-effective, observable passive solar strategies in U.S. houses. ► No national trends toward passive solar design in U.S.—a missed opportunity. ► Some regional passive solar trends in U.S. for house orientation, roof color

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Sea level differences between Topex/Poseidon altimetry and tide gauges: observed trends and vertical land motions

Science.gov (United States)

Lombard, A.; Dominh, K.; Cazenave, A.; Calmant, S.; Cretaux, J.

2002-12-01

Nine year-long (1993-2001) sea level difference time series have been constructed by comparing sea level recorded by tide gauges and Topex/Poseidon altimetry. Although the primary goal of such an analysis is to define a sub network of good quality tide gauges for calibration of satellite altimetry systems, in particular Jason-1. The difference time series displaying large positive or negative trends may give evidence of vertical land motion at the tide gauge site. We have analyzed 98 tide gauge records from the UHSLC. Among them, 42 sites mainly located on open ocean islands, give very good agreement (better than 2 mm/year) with Topex/Poseidon-derived sea level trends. 22 other sites, mainly located along the continental coastlines of the Pacific Ocean, present sea level trends differing by more than 5 mm/year with Topex/Poseidon. Many of these sites are located in active tectonic areas (either in the vicinity of subduction zones or in active volcanic areas), where vertical land motions (either transient or long-term) are expected. For example, this is the case at Kushimoto, Ofunato, Kushiro (Japan), Kodiak Island and Yakutat (Alaska), La Libertad, Callao, Caldera (western south America), and Rabaul (western Pacific). When possible, we compare these observed trends in sea level differences with GPS and/or DORIS observations.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

Historical and projected trends in temperature and precipitation extremes in Australia in observations and CMIP5

OpenAIRE

Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.

2017-01-01

This study expands previous work on climate extremes in Australia by investigating the simulation of a large number of extremes indices in the CMIP5 multi-model dataset and comparing them to multiple observational datasets over a century of observed data using consistent methods. We calculate 24 indices representing extremes of temperature and precipitation from 1911 to 2010 over Australia and show that there have been significant observed trends in temperature extremes associated with warmin...

Using observation-level random effects to model overdispersion in count data in ecology and evolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier A. Harrison

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Overdispersion is common in models of count data in ecology and evolutionary biology, and can occur due to missing covariates, non-independent (aggregated data, or an excess frequency of zeroes (zero-inflation. Accounting for overdispersion in such models is vital, as failing to do so can lead to biased parameter estimates, and false conclusions regarding hypotheses of interest. Observation-level random effects (OLRE, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that models the extra-Poisson variation present in the data, are commonly employed to cope with overdispersion in count data. However studies investigating the efficacy of observation-level random effects as a means to deal with overdispersion are scarce. Here I use simulations to show that in cases where overdispersion is caused by random extra-Poisson noise, or aggregation in the count data, observation-level random effects yield more accurate parameter estimates compared to when overdispersion is simply ignored. Conversely, OLRE fail to reduce bias in zero-inflated data, and in some cases increase bias at high levels of overdispersion. There was a positive relationship between the magnitude of overdispersion and the degree of bias in parameter estimates. Critically, the simulations reveal that failing to account for overdispersion in mixed models can erroneously inflate measures of explained variance (r2, which may lead to researchers overestimating the predictive power of variables of interest. This work suggests use of observation-level random effects provides a simple and robust means to account for overdispersion in count data, but also that their ability to minimise bias is not uniform across all types of overdispersion and must be applied judiciously.

Air-sea coupling during the tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean: A case study using satellite observations

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Subrahmanyam, B.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sharp, R.J.; O'Brien, J.J.

by HILBURN et al. (2003). Daily OLR data on 2.5 C176C22.5 C176 grids were obtained for the periods of cyclones (October 1999 and May 2001) from Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC), Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. MURTY et al. (2000, 2002, 2003) reported that intense...-sea Coupling During the Tropical Cyclones 1669 Acknowledgements The interpolated OLR data is provided by the NOAA-CIRES CDC. We thank Dr. Harley Hurlburt and Dr. Birol Kara for providing the NLOM MLD simulations and Dr. Charlie Barron for providing the MODAS...

Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

Recent changes in economic development tendencies and environmental protection policies in the East Asian countries raise hopes for improvement of regional air quality in this vast region populated by more than 3 billion people. To recognize anticipated changes in atmospheric pollutants levels, deposition rates and impact on the environment, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) is regularly operating region-wide since 2000 in 13 countries. The network provides continuous monitoring data on the air quality and precipitation (including gas-phase and particulate chemistry) at 55 monitoring sites, including 20 remote and 14 rural sites. Observation of soil and inland water environments are performed at more than 30 monitoring sites [1]. In this study we focus on 1) the data quality assessment and preparation and 2) analysis of temporal trends of compositions observed at selected 26 non-urban EANET stations. Speciation includes gas-phase (SO2, HNO3, HCl, NH3) and particulate matter (SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, NH4+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) abundances analysed in samples collected using filterpack technique with sampling duration/frequency of one-two weeks. Data quality assessment (distribution test and manual inspection) allowed us to remove/repair random and operator errors. Wrong sample timing was found for 0.37% (severe) and 34% (mild inconsistency) of the total of 7630 samples regarded. Erroneous data flagging (e.g. missing or below the detection limit) was repaired for 9.3%, respectively. Some 1.8% of severely affected data were corrected (where possible) or removed. Thus refined 15-year dataset is made available for the scientific community. For convenience, we also provide data in netCDF format (per station or in an assembly). Based on this refined dataset, we performed trend analysis using several statistical approaches including quantile regression which provides robust results against outliers and better understanding of trend

Observed trends in climate over Southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Davis-Reddy, Claire L

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The body of work on historical climate trends has been steadily increasing during the last decade. Global mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C since 1880 and are projected to increase by 0.3 to 2.5 °C by 2050, relative to the 1985...

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

2014-01-01

In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

2014-11-25

In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

Science.gov (United States)

Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

2014-11-01

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

Self-immobilization of acidogenic mixed consortia on mesoporous material (SBA-15) and activated carbon to enhance fermentative hydrogen production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mohan, S. Venkata; Mohanakrishna, G.; Sarma, P.N. [Bioengineering and Environmental Centre, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Hyderabad 500607 (India); Reddy, S. Sreevardhan; Raju, B. David; Rao, K.S. Rama [Catalysis and Physical Chemistry Division, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, Hyderabad 500607 (India)

2008-11-15

The influence of self-immobilization of enriched acidogenic mixed consortia on fermentative hydrogen (H{sub 2}) production was studied on different supporting materials [SBA-15 (mesoporous) and activated carbon (granular; GAC and powder; PAC)] using chemical wastewater as substrate. Batch fermentation experiments were performed with same substrate at different organic loading rates (OLRs) under acidophilic microenvironment (pH 5.5) and room temperature (28 {+-} 2 C). Experimental data evidenced the effectiveness of attached growth on both the H{sub 2} yields and substrate degradation efficiency, particularly at higher loading rates. Among the three materials evaluated, immobilization on SBA-15 material showed comparatively effective performance in enhancing both H{sub 2} yield and substrate degradation. Suspended growth (SG-control) culture showed inhibition in terms of both H{sub 2} production and substrate degradation especially at applied higher loading rates. Immobilization on SBA-15 resulted in nine times higher H{sub 2} production (7.29 mol/kg COD{sub R}-day at OLR of 0.83 kg COD/m{sup 3}-day) than the lowest yield observed (suspended growth at OLR of 2.55 kg COD/m{sup 3}-day). Maximum substrate degradation rate (SDR) of 0.96 kg COD/m{sup 3}-day (OLR 2.55 kg COD/m{sup 3}-day) was also observed with SBA-15 immobilization, which is 1.62 times higher than the lowest substrate degradation observed with SG-control experiments with the same OLR. Attached growth on GAC and PAC also showed remarkable improvement in the process performance at higher OLRs compared to SG-control. (author)

Trends and characteristics observed in nuclear events based on international nuclear event scale reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2001-01-01

The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is jointly operated by the IAEA and the OECD-NEA as a means designed for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events, that occurred at nuclear facilities, and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public. Nuclear events are reported to the INES with the Scale', a consistent safety significance indicator, which runs from level 0, for events with no safety significance, to level 7 for a major accident with widespread health and environmental effects. Since the operation of INES was initiated in 1990, approximately 500 events have been reported and disseminated. The present paper discusses the trends observed in nuclear events, such as overall trends of the reported events and characteristics of safety significant events with level 2 or higher, based on the INES reports. (author)

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

Science.gov (United States)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

Sea-level trend in the South China Sea observed from 20 years of along-track satellite altimetric data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2014-01-01

The sea-level trend in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on 20 years of along-track data from TOPEX and Jason-1/2 satellite altimetry. The average sea-level rise over all the regions in the study area is observed to have a rate of 5.1 ± 0.8 mm year-1 for the period from 1993 to 2012....... The steric sea level contributes 45% to the observed sea-level trend. These results are consistent with previous studies. In addition, the results demonstrate that the maximum sea-level rise rate of 8.4 mm year-1 is occurring off the east coast of Vietnam and eastern part of SCS. During 2010-2011, the La...... Niña event was highly correlated with the dramatic sea-level rise in the SCS; La Niña events were also associated with the maximum rate of sea rise off the east coast of Vietnam, which occurred during 1993 and 2012. We also evaluated the trends in the geophysical (e.g. dynamical atmospheric correction...

Organic loading rate impact on biohydrogen production and microbial communities at anaerobic fluidized thermophilic bed reactors treating sugarcane stillage.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Samantha Christine; Rosa, Paula Rúbia Ferreira; Sakamoto, Isabel Kimiko; Varesche, Maria Bernadete Amâncio; Silva, Edson Luiz

2014-05-01

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of high organic loading rates (OLR) (60.0-480.00 kg COD m(-3)d(-1)) on biohydrogen production at 55°C, from sugarcane stillage for 15,000 and 20,000 mg CODL(-1), in two anaerobic fluidized bed reactors (AFBR1 and AFBR2). It was obtained, for H2 yield and content, a decreasing trend by increasing the OLR. The maximum H2 yield was observed in AFBR1 (2.23 mmol g COD added(-1)). The volumetric H2 production was proportionally related to the applied hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 6, 4, 2 and 1h and verified in AFBR1 the highest value (1.49 L H2 h(-1)L(-1)). Among the organic acids obtained, there was a predominance of lactic acid (7.5-22.5%) and butyric acid (9.4-23.8%). The microbial population was set with hydrogen-producing fermenters (Megasphaera sp.) and other organisms (Lactobacillus sp.). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anaerobic treatment of cassava stillage for hydrogen and methane production in continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) under high organic loading rate (OLR)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Gang; Xie, Li; Zou, Zhonghai; Wang, Wen; Zhou, Qi [Key Laboratory of Yangtze River Water Environment, Ministry of Education (Tongji University), UNEP-Tongji, Tongji University, Siping Road No. 1239, Shanghai 200092 (China); Shim, Hojae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau SAR 999078 (China)

2010-11-15

Anaerobic hydrogen and methane production from cassava stillage in continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) were investigated in this study. Results showed that the heat-pretreatment of inoculum did not enhance hydrogen yield compared to raw inoculum under mesophilic condition after continuous operation. However, the hydrogen yield increased from about 14 ml H{sub 2}/gVS under mesophilic condition to 69.6 ml H{sub 2}/gVS under thermophilic condition due to the decrease of propionate concentration and inhibition of homoacetogens. Therefore, temperature was demonstrated to be more important than pretreatment of inoculum to enhance the hydrogen production. Under high organic loading rate (OLR) (>10 gVS/(L.d)), the two-phase thermophilic CSTR for hydrogen and methane production was stable with hydrogen and methane yields of 56.6 mlH{sub 2}/gVS and 249 mlCH{sub 4}/gVS. The one-phase thermophilic CSTR for methane production failed due to the accumulation of both acetate and propionate, leading to the pH lower than 6. Instead of propionate alone, the accumulations of both acetate and propionate were found to be related to the breakdown of methane reactor. (author)

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space.

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-05-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.

Pure Laparoscopic Versus Open Liver Resection for Primary Liver Carcinoma in Elderly Patients: A Single-Center, Case-Matched Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xi-Tao; Wang, Hong-Guang; Duan, Wei-Dong; Wu, Cong-Ying; Chen, Ming-Yi; Li, Hao; Huang, Xin; Zhang, Fu-Bo; Dong, Jia-Hong

2015-10-01

Pure laparoscopic liver resection (PLLR) has been reported to be as safe and effective as open liver resection (OLR) for liver lesions, and it is associated with less intraoperative blood loss, shorter hospital stay, and lower complication rate. However, studies comparing PLLR with OLR in elderly patients were limited. The aim of this study was to analyze the short-term outcome of PLLR versus OLR for primary liver carcinoma (PLC) in elderly patients.Between January 2008 and October 2014, 30 consecutive elderly patients (≥70 years) who underwent PLLR for PLC were included into analysis. Sixty patients who received OLR for PLC during the same study period were also included as a case-matched control group. Patients were well matched in terms of age, sex, comorbid illness, Child Pugh class, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, tumor size, tumor location, and extent of hepatectomy.No significant differences were observed with regard to patient preoperative baseline status, median tumor size (Group PLLR 4.0 cm vs Group OLR 5.0 cm, P = 0.125), tumor location, extent of hepatectomy, and operation time (Group PLLR 133 minutes vs Group OLR 170 minutes, P = 0.073). Compared with OLR, the PLLR group displayed a significantly less frequent Pringle maneuver application (10.0% vs 70.0%, P PLC is as safe and feasible as OLR, but with less blood loss, shorter hospital stay, and lower hospitalization cost for selected elderly patients.

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, A.; Müller, R.; Homonnai, V.; Jánosi, I. M.; Hurst, D.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Rohrer, F.; Spelten, N.; Riese, M.

2013-10-01

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N,105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TPz>14km), extratropical (TPzconcepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Simulated and observed trends in key variables of the Arctic marine carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Lauvset, Siv; Petrenko, Dmitry; Pozdnyakov, Dmitry; Schwinger, Jörg

2013-04-01

For the Arctic region, a thorough monitoring of the marine carbon cycle is important, as the general "polar amplification" of climate change also translates into the biogeochemical realm. As compared to the global ocean, the sink for human-produced CO2 is fairly small in the Arctic Ocean itself. Nevertheless, it is important to follow up this Arctic sink as a further control of the regional carbon budget and to record changes in the marine carbon cycle on the way towards a "blue Arctic". Since observations on the Arctic are rare, the EU FP7 MONARCH-A project tries to enable adequate descriptions of the status and evolution of the Arctic region Earth system components by generating time series of observation datasets and model hindcasts. In terms of the marine carbon cycle, this analysis focuses mainly on the key variables pCO2 and primary productivity. For oceanic pCO2, the comprehensive data-sets SOCAT and LDEO were combined, while measurements of atmospheric CO2 were collected from the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 data integration project. Monthly Primary Production fields were retrieved from the sensors MODIS and SeaWiFs. In order to get an overall picture of the behavior and trends of those key variables, in addition the physical-biogeochemical model MICOM-HAMOCC-M was employed. The investigation showed that both oceanic and atmospheric pCO2 are consistent variables which have a regular annual cycle and a similar behaviour all over the Arctic for both model and data. In contrast, primary production shows an irregular annual cycle in both range and form, varying over the Arctic. While a few well distributed measurement stations with continuous observations are sufficient to get a comprehensive picture for consistent variables like pCO2, it is relatively difficult and costly to get a comprehensive record of non-consistent variables. Since the provided data-set for primary production covers a relatively short time-scale, it was neither possible to confidently validate the model

Solar wind ion trends and signatures: STEREO PLASTIC observations approaching solar minimum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Galvin

2009-10-01

Full Text Available STEREO has now completed the first two years of its mission, moving from close proximity to Earth in 2006/2007 to more than 50 degrees longitudinal separation from Earth in 2009. During this time, several large-scale structures have been observed in situ. Given the prevailing solar minimum conditions, these structures have been predominantly coronal hole-associated solar wind, slow solar wind, their interfaces, and the occasional transient event. In this paper, we extend earlier solar wind composition studies into the current solar minimum using high-resolution (1-h sampling times for the charge state analysis. We examine 2-year trends for iron charge states and solar wind proton speeds, and present a case study of Carrington Rotation 2064 (December 2007 which includes minor ion (He, Fe, O kinetic and Fe composition parameters in comparison with proton and magnetic field signatures at large-scale structures observed during this interval.

Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability in Indonesian seas

Science.gov (United States)

Napitu, A. M.; Gordon, A. L.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

The satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data, 1998-mid 2012, are used to examine intraseasonal variability (ISV; 20-90 days) across the Indonesian seas. The most energetic ISV is observed in the Banda Sea and across the Indo-Australia basin with an The satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data, 1998-mid 2012, are used to examine intraseasonal variability (ISV; 20-90 days) across the Indonesian seas. The most energetic ISV is observed in the Banda Sea and across the Indo-Australia basin with an average SST standard deviation (STD) between 0.4-0.5°C, with strongest signature during boreal winter. What physical processes force the SST ISV variability within the Indonesian seas? Ocean process, sea-air interaction, or both? To help identify the main forcing, the satellite derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and wind stress data in the region are examined. The OLR shows robust intraseasonal variations and is significantly correlated with the SST, particularly for variability with periods of 30-60 days, with OLR accounting for ~60-70% of the SST variance. The OLR is also maximum during boreal winter. Conversely, the surface wind may play insignificant role in perturbing the SST at intraseasonal timescales as shown by weak correlation between wind stress and SST. We thus suspect that the surface solar flux (suggested by the OLR) is likely more dominant than the surface turbulent heat flux (indicated by the surface wind) as the main source for the ISV in the SST in Indonesian seas. Furthermore the maximum OLR phase, coupled with a period of minimum mixed layer depth, may explain the strong SST variation during boreal winter in Indonesian seas. The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the OLR and SST variability is currently being evaluated.

Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

2012-12-01

It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

Science.gov (United States)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

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Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.-P. Ho

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate radio occultation (RO under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW radiometer – COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade−1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63, which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade−1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62. The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40–60° N and 40–65° S, and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade−1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor–temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical

Anaerobic digestion of autoclaved and untreated food waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tampio, Elina; Ervasti, Satu; Paavola, Teija; Heaven, Sonia; Banks, Charles; Rintala, Jukka

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Autoclaving decreased the formation of NH4-N and H 2 S during food waste digestion. • Stable digestion was achieved with untreated and autoclaved FW at OLR 6 kg VS/m 3 day. • Use of acclimated inoculum allowed very rapid increases in OLR. • Highest CH 4 yields were observed at OLR 3 kg VS/m 3 day with untreated FW. • Autoclaved FW produced highest CH 4 yields during OLR 4 kgVS/m 3 day. - Abstract: Anaerobic digestion of autoclaved (160 °C, 6.2 bar) and untreated source segregated food waste (FW) was compared over 473 days in semi-continuously fed mesophilic reactors with trace elements supplementation, at organic loading rates (OLRs) of 2, 3, 4 and 6 kg volatile solids (VS)/m 3 d. Methane yields at all OLR were 5–10% higher for untreated FW (maximum 0.483 ± 0.013 m 3 CH 4 /kg VS at 3 kg VS/m 3 d) than autoclaved FW (maximum 0.439 ± 0.020 m 3 CH 4 /kg VS at 4 kg VS/m 3 d). The residual methane potential of both digestates at all OLRs was less than 0.110 m 3 CH 4 /kg VS, indicating efficient methanation in all cases. Use of acclimated inoculum allowed very rapid increases in OLR. Reactors fed on autoclaved FW showed lower ammonium and hydrogen sulphide concentrations, probably due to reduced protein hydrolysis as a result of formation of Maillard compounds. In the current study this reduced biodegradability appears to outweigh any benefit due to thermal hydrolysis of ligno-cellulosic components

Performance of UASB reactors in two stages under different HRT and OLR treating residual waters of swine farming Desempenho de reatores UASB em dois estágios sob diferentes TDH e COV tratando águas residuárias de suinocultura

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Estevão Urbinati

2013-04-01

Full Text Available In this study it was evaluated the effects of hydraulic retention time (HRT and Organic Loading Rate (OLR on the performance of UASB (Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket reactors in two stages treating residual waters of swine farming. The system consisted of two UASB reactors in pilot scale, installed in series, with volumes of 908 and 188 L, for the first and second stages (R1 and R2, respectively. The HRT applied in the system of anaerobic treatment in two stages (R1 + R2 was of 19.3, 29.0 and 57.9 h. The OLR applied in the R1 ranged from 5.5 to 40.1 kg CODtotal (m³ d-1. The average removal efficiencies of chemical oxygen demand (COD and total suspended solids (TSS ranged, respectively, from 66.3 to 88.2% and 62.5 to 89.3% in the R1, and from 85.5 to 95.5% and 76.4 to 96.1% in the system (R1 + R2. The volumetric production of methane in the system (R1 + R2 ranged from 0.295 to 0.721 m³CH4 (m³ reactor d-1. It was found that the OLR applied were not limiting to obtain high efficiencies of CODtotal and TSS removal and methane production. The inclusion of the UASB reactor in the second stage contributed to increase the efficiencies of CODtotal and TSS removal, especially, when the treatment system was submitted to the lowest HRT and the highest OLR.Neste trabalho, avaliou-se o efeito do tempo de detenção hidráulica (TDH e da carga orgânica volumétrica (COV no desempenho de reatores UASB (Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket, em dois estágios, tratando águas residuárias de suinocultura. O sistema foi constituído por dois reatores UASB em escala-piloto, instalados em série, com volumes de 908 e 188 L, para o primeiro e segundo estágios (R1 e R2, respectivamente. Os TDH, aplicados no sistema de tratamento anaeróbio, em dois estágios (R1 + R2, foram de 19,3; 29,0 e 57,9 h. As COVs aplicadas no R1 variaram de 5,5 a 40,1 kg DQOtotal (m³ d-1. As eficiências médias de remoção de demanda química de oxigênio total (DQOtotal e s

Multi-year levels and trends of non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations observed in ambient air in France

Science.gov (United States)

Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine

2016-09-01

Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.

Effects of climate change on groundwater: observed and forecasted trends on Italian systems

Science.gov (United States)

Doveri, Marco; Menichini, Matia; Provenzale, Antonello; Scozzari, Andrea

2017-04-01

Groundwater represents the main source of water supply at global level. In Italy, as well as in most European countries, water needs are mainly covered by groundwater exploitation. The reliance on this resource is continuously growing, given the key role that groundwater plays for mitigating the climate change/variability and for addressing the significant increase in the global water demand. Despite this, and unlike surface waters, groundwater bodies have not been widely studied, and there is a general paucity of quantitative information, especially in relation to climate change. Although groundwater systems are more resilient to climate change than surface waters, they are affected both directly and indirectly. The estimation of the entity of these effects is mandatory for a reliable management of this crucial resource. The analysis of hydro-meteorological data over a few decades highlights that also the Italian territory is experiencing a change of the climate regime. Besides the increase of mean annual temperature, observed in particular since the early 1980s, longer and more frequent drought periods have been registered, as well as an increase of extreme events characterized by heavy rainfall. It is also noticeable a decrease in total rainfall, that is much more evident in the period from January to June. In addition to the reduced yearly inputs from precipitation, such trends determine also a lower snow accumulation and earlier snow melt in mountain areas, a general increase of evapotranspiration rates and an increased runoff fraction of the effective rainfall amount. As flood hydrographs of several major Italian rivers (e.g., Po, Brenta and Arno rivers) confirm, evident effects concern surface water resources. The main observed phenomena consist in the decline of mean annual discharge, the increase of extreme events with high discharge concentrated in short periods, and longer and earlier periods of low base flow. Impacts on groundwater recharge are not well

Empirical links between the local runaway greenhouse, super-greenhouse, and deep convection in Earth's tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Dewey, M. C.; Goldblatt, C.

2017-12-01

Energy balance requires that energy absorbed and emitted at the top of the atmosphere equal; this is maintained via the Planck feedback whereby outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) increases as surface temperature increases. There are two cases where this breaks down: the runaway greenhouse (known from planetary sciences theory) characterized by an asymptotic limit on OLR from moist atmospheres, and the super-greenhouse (known from tropical meteorology observations) where OLR decreases with surface temperature when the atmosphere is moist aloft. Here we show that the runaway greenhouse limit can be empirically observed and constrained in Earth's tropics, that the runaway and super-greenhouse occur as part of the same physical phenomenon, and that the transition through the super-greenhouse to a local runaway greenhouse is intimately linked to the onset of deep convection. A runaway greenhouse occurs when water vapour causes the troposphere to become optically thick to thermal radiation from the surface and a limit on OLR emerges as thermal emission is from a constant temperature level aloft. This limit is modelled as 282 W/m/m [Goldblatt et al, 2013]. Using satellite data from Earth's tropics, we find an empirical value of this limit of 280 W/m/m, in excellent agreement with the model.A column transitioning to a runaway greenhouse typically overshoots the runaway limit and then OLR decreases with increasing surface temperature until the runaway limit is reached after which OLR remains constant. The term super-greenhouse effect (SGE) has been used to describe OLR decreasing with surface warming, observed in these satellite measurements. We show the SGE is one and the same as the transition to a local runaway greenhouse, and represents a fundamental shift in the radiation response of the earth system, rather than simply an extension of water vapour feedback. This transition via SGE from an optically thin to optically thick troposphere is facilitated by enhanced

CPUE TRENDS OF THE INDONESIA’S TUNA LONGLINE FISHERY: LESSONS LEARNED FROM A TRIAL OBSERVER PROGRAM

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Lilis Sadiyah

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In an effort to address a shortage of reliable CPUE information, and as a preliminary step to a broader observer program, Indonesia established a Trial Observer Program (TOP for the industrial tuna long line fishery based at Benoa Fishing Port, Bali, in mid 2005. The objectives of this paper are i to describe spatial and temporal catch and effort trends from the Indonesian Indian Ocean industrial tuna long line fishery based at Benoa Fishing Port, and ii to provide an understanding of the fishing strategies used by different companies and of the environmental conditions that may influence catch trends. The observed effort covered areas both north and south of 20°S, with a concentration within 10°-20°S; 105°-120°E which overlaps with the only known spawning grounds of southern bluefin tuna (SBT. This data set showed that SBT comprised the lowest catch proportion, relative to the other three tuna species caught, bigeye tuna (BET, yellowfin tuna (YFT and albacore (ALB. BET and ALB had been suggested as the main target species for the fishery, but this varied by region. The TOP data set suggests that different tuna fishing companies targeted different species and used different fishing practices, including differences in bait used, areas fished, start time of setting, and the number of hooks between floats (HBF. It is a priority to improve the spatial and temporal coverage of the observer program before the data can be considered to be representative of the fleet, particularly given the high degree of variability in fishing practices between companies.

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Orlowsky

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI of these events lies within the general range of observation-based SPI time series and simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5. In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa. Also for the future, projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI and soil moisture (SMA drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However, projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of Global Climate Models (GCMs generally becomes the dominant source of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas (GHG concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the main source

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

2015-03-01

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

Anaerobic digestion of autoclaved and untreated food waste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tampio, Elina, E-mail: elina.tampio@mtt.fi [Bioenergy and Environment, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-31600 Jokioinen (Finland); Ervasti, Satu; Paavola, Teija [Bioenergy and Environment, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-31600 Jokioinen (Finland); Heaven, Sonia; Banks, Charles [University of Southampton, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Rintala, Jukka [Bioenergy and Environment, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, FI-31600 Jokioinen (Finland)

2014-02-15

Highlights: • Autoclaving decreased the formation of NH4-N and H{sub 2}S during food waste digestion. • Stable digestion was achieved with untreated and autoclaved FW at OLR 6 kg VS/m{sup 3}day. • Use of acclimated inoculum allowed very rapid increases in OLR. • Highest CH{sub 4} yields were observed at OLR 3 kg VS/m{sup 3}day with untreated FW. • Autoclaved FW produced highest CH{sub 4} yields during OLR 4 kgVS/m{sup 3}day. - Abstract: Anaerobic digestion of autoclaved (160 °C, 6.2 bar) and untreated source segregated food waste (FW) was compared over 473 days in semi-continuously fed mesophilic reactors with trace elements supplementation, at organic loading rates (OLRs) of 2, 3, 4 and 6 kg volatile solids (VS)/m{sup 3} d. Methane yields at all OLR were 5–10% higher for untreated FW (maximum 0.483 ± 0.013 m{sup 3} CH{sub 4}/kg VS at 3 kg VS/m{sup 3} d) than autoclaved FW (maximum 0.439 ± 0.020 m{sup 3} CH{sub 4}/kg VS at 4 kg VS/m{sup 3} d). The residual methane potential of both digestates at all OLRs was less than 0.110 m{sup 3} CH{sub 4}/kg VS, indicating efficient methanation in all cases. Use of acclimated inoculum allowed very rapid increases in OLR. Reactors fed on autoclaved FW showed lower ammonium and hydrogen sulphide concentrations, probably due to reduced protein hydrolysis as a result of formation of Maillard compounds. In the current study this reduced biodegradability appears to outweigh any benefit due to thermal hydrolysis of ligno-cellulosic components.

Effects of Organic Loading Rate on the Performance of a Pressurized Anaerobic Filter in Two-Phase Anaerobic Digestion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuling Chen

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The effect of organic loading rate (OLR on a pressurized anaerobic filter was studied in a laboratory two-phase anaerobic digestion system. The anaerobic filter was operated successively at two working pressures (9 bar and 1.5 bar. The OLR(COD for each pressure was increased from 5 to 17.5 kg·m−3·day−1. The best performance of the reactor at 9 bar was observed at OLR(COD of 12.5 kg·m−3·day−1 and hydraulic retention time (HRT of 1.8 day, with specific biogas productivity (SBP of 5.3 L·L−1·day−1 and COD degradation grade of 90.6%. At higher OLRs and shorter HRTs, the process became unstable. In contrast, there was no indication of digester failure during the experiments at 1.5 bar. The SBP peaked at OLR(COD of 17.5 kg·m−3·day−1 with 8.2 L·L−1·day−1, where COD degradation grade was 90.4%. The biogas collected from the reactor at 9 bar and 1.5 bar contained approximately 74.5% CH4 and 66.2% CH4, respectively, regardless of OLR variation. At OLR(COD of 5–12.5 kg·m−3·day−1, the reactor at 9 bar had the same specific methane yield as at 1.5 bar, which was in the range of 0.31–0.32 LN·g−1COD. Raising the working pressure in the reactor resulted in an increase of methane content of the produced biogas. However, the low pH value (approximately 6.5 inside the reactor, induced by high CO2 partial pressure seemed to limit the reactor performance at high OLRs and short HRT.

On the use of a regression model for trend estimates from ground-based atmospheric observations in the Southern hemisphere

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Bencherif, H

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The present reports on the use of a multi-regression model adapted at Reunion University for temperature and ozone trend estimates. Depending on the location of the observing site, the studied geophysical signal is broken down in form of a sum...

Two-phase anaerobic digestion of mixed waste streams to separate generation of bio-hydrogen and bio-methane

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Z.; Horam, N.J. [Leeds Univ. (United Kingdom). School of Civil Engineering

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the net energy potential of single stage mesophilic reactor and two phase mesophilic reactor (hydrogeniser followed by methaniser) using the mix of process industrial food waste (IFW) and sewage sludge (SS). Two-phase reactor efficiency was analysed based on individual optimum influent/environmental (C:N and pH) and reactor/engineering (HRT and OLR) conditions achieved using the batch and continuous reactor study for the hydrogen and methane. Optimum C:N 20 and pH 5.5{+-}0.5 was observed using the Bio-H{sub 2} potential (BHP) and C:N 15 and pH 6.5{+-}0.3 for the biochemical methane potential (BMP) test. The maximum hydrogen content of 47% (v/v) was achieved using OLR 6 g VS/L/d and HRT of 5 days. Increase in hydrogen yield was noticed with consistent decrease in OLR. The volatile solids (VS) removal and hydrogen yield was observed in range 41.3 to 47% and 112.3 to 146.7 mL/ gVS{sub removed}. The specific hydrogen production rate improved at low OLR, 0.2 to 0.4 L/(L.d) using OLR 7.1 and 6 g VS/L/d respectively was well corroborated comparable to previous reported results at OLR 6 gVS/L/d using the enriched carbohydrate waste stream in particular to food wastes. A significant increase in VFA concentrations were noticed shifting OLR higher from 6 g VS/L/d thereby unbalancing the reactor pH and the biogas yield respectively. In similar, maximum methane content of 70% (v/v) was achieved using OLR of 3.3 gVS/L/d and HRT of 10 days. Slight decrease in methane content was noticed thereby increasing HRT to 12 and 15 days respectively. The volatile solids (VS) removal and specific methane production rate was observed in range 57.6 to 68.7 and 0.22 to 1.19 L/(L.d). The specific methane production potential improved thereby reducing the HRT and optimum yield was recorded as 476.6 mL/gVS{sub removed} using OLR 3.3 gVS/L/d. The energy potential of optimum condition in single stage hydorgeniser is 2.27 MW/tonne VS{sub fed}. Using the

Near-equatorial convective regimes over the Indian Ocean as revealed by synergistic analysis of satellite observations.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Levy, G.; Geiss, A.; RameshKumar, M.R.

We examine the organization and temporal evolution of deep convection in relation to the low level flow over the Indian Ocean by a synergistic analysis of several satellite datasets for wind, rainfall, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and cloud...

Global Trends in Chlorophyll Concentration Observed with the Satellite Ocean Colour Data Record

Science.gov (United States)

Melin, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Chuprin, A.; Grant, M.; Jackson, T.; Sathyendranath, S.

2016-08-01

To detect climate change signals in the data records derived from remote sensing of ocean colour, combining data from multiple missions is required, which implies that the existence of inter-mission differences be adequately addressed prior to undertaking trend studies. Trend distributions associated with merged products are compared with those obtained from single-mission data sets in order to evaluate their suitability for climate studies. Merged products originally developed for operational applications such as near-real time distribution (GlobColour) do not appear to be proper climate data records, showing large parts of the ocean with trends significantly different from trends obtained with SeaWiFS, MODIS or MERIS. On the other hand, results obtained from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data are encouraging, showing a good consistency with single-mission products.

Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing on observed mean and extreme sea level pressure trends over the Mediterranean Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scale component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.

Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

OpenAIRE

Narvydas, A

2014-01-01

The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

Who launched what, when and why; trends in global land-cover observation capacity from civilian earth observation satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Belward, Alan S.; Skøien, Jon O.

2015-05-01

This paper presents a compendium of satellites under civilian and/or commercial control with the potential to gather global land-cover observations. From this we show that a growing number of sovereign states are acquiring capacity for space based land-cover observations and show how geopolitical patterns of ownership are changing. We discuss how the number of satellites flying at any time has progressed as a function of increased launch rates and mission longevity, and how the spatial resolutions of the data they collect has evolved. The first such satellite was launched by the USA in 1972. Since then government and/or private entities in 33 other sovereign states and geopolitical groups have chosen to finance such missions and 197 individual satellites with a global land-cover observing capacity have been successfully launched. Of these 98 were still operating at the end of 2013. Since the 1970s the number of such missions failing within 3 years of launch has dropped from around 60% to less than 20%, the average operational life of a mission has almost tripled, increasing from 3.3 years in the 1970s to 8.6 years (and still lengthening), the average number of satellites launched per-year/per-decade has increased from 2 to 12 and spatial resolution increased from around 80 m to less than 1 m multispectral and less than half a meter for panchromatic; synthetic aperture radar resolution has also fallen, from 25 m in the 1970s to 1 m post 2007. More people in more countries have access to data from global land-cover observing spaceborne missions at a greater range of spatial resolutions than ever before. We provide a compendium of such missions, analyze the changes and shows how innovation, the need for secure data-supply, national pride, falling costs and technological advances may underpin the trends we document.

Comparison of the effectivities of two-phase and single-phase anaerobic sequencing batch reactors during dairy wastewater treatment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goebloes, Sz.; Portoero, P.; Bordas, D.; Kalman, M.; Kiss, I. [Institute for Biotechnology, Bay Zoltan Foundation for Applied Research, H-6726 Szeged (Hungary)

2008-05-15

The performances of anaerobic sequencing batch reactors fed with two different substrates were studied. The substrates were raw acid whey and acid whey fermented with Kluyveromyces lactis in order to investigate the suitability of ethanol for biogas production. The organic loading rates (OLRs) during the experiment ranged from 1.6 to 12.8 g COD dm{sup -3} d{sup -1} and the corresponding decreasing hydraulic retention times from 40 to 5 days for both reactor systems. The efficiency of each system depended on the OLR: the highest COD removal rate was observed at the lowest OLR applied (about 100% in both systems), and at maximum OLR the COD removal efficiency was 68% for the reactors fed with the raw whey and 80% for those fed with the pre-fermented whey. Under the same high OLR conditions the methane yield was 0.122 dm{sup -3} CH{sub 4} g{sup -1} COD{sub degraded} for the anaerobic digesters fed with the untreated whey, and 0.197 dm{sup -3} CH{sub 4} g{sup -1} COD{sub degraded} for those fed with the pre-fermented whey. The digesters functioned without pH control. At the maximum OLR the pH in the reactors fed with the raw acid whey was 5.1, while in those fed with the pre-fermented whey it was 7.15. The results demonstrate that the use of the pre-fermented acid whey as substrate for anaerobic digestion without pH control is feasible, especially at high OLR levels. This substrate is preferable to the raw acid whey, because of the ethanol formed as a non-acidic fermentation product of the yeast. (author)

A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-08-01

A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

World trends from 2017

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janković Slobodan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Strode

2016-06-01

Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER

2004-01-01

The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

Degradation of phenolics, nitrogen-heterocyclics and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in a rotating biological contactor.

Science.gov (United States)

Jeswani, Hansa; Mukherji, Suparna

2012-05-01

The degradation of phenolics, heterocyclics and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in a synthetic biomass gasifier wastewater with average COD of 1388 mg/L was studied in a three stage rotating biological contactor (RBC) using the pyrene degrader, Exiguobacterium aurantiacum and activated sludge consortia (1:3 v/v). As the organic loading rate (OLR) was varied from 3.3 to 14 g/m(2)/d, the COD removal ranged from 63.3% to 92.6%. Complete removal of all the constituents was observed at the lowest OLR of 3.3g/m(2)/d. At 24h hydraulic retention time (HRT) and OLR of 6.6g/m(2)/d complete removal of pyridine, quinoline and benzene and 85-96% removal of phenol, naphthalene, phenanthrene, fluoranthene and pyrene was observed. E. aurantiacum was found to be the dominant bacteria in the biofilm. Clark's model provided good fits to data for all the three stages of the RBC. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Development of monitoring and control technology based on trace gas monitoring. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liebowitz, B.

1997-07-01

Trace gases are generated by many biological reactions. During anaerobic decomposition, trace levels of hydrogen (H{sub 2}) and carbon monoxide (CO) gases are produced. It was shown previously that these trace gases are intrinsically related to the biochemical reactions occurring and, therefore, offer promise for on-line process monitoring and control. This work was designed to test how effectively hydrogen and CO could be to monitor high-rate anaerobic systems that has significant mass transfer and complex hydraulics. An experimental program was designed to examine the behavior of an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor system under steady state and in response to organic loading perturbations. The responses of trace gases CO and H{sub 2} were tracked using an on-line, real-time gas-monitoring system linked to a computer-controlled data acquisition package. Data on conventional process parameters such as pH, chemical oxygen demand (COD), volatile fatty acids (VFAs) were concurrently collected. Monitoring of conventional process indicators (i.e., pH, VFA, gas production) and trace gas (H{sub 2} and CO) indicators was conducted using a matrix of nine different steady-state OLRs (4-23 kg COD/m{sup 3} -d) and system HRTs (0.5 to 2.5 days) was performed to determine any correlation among the indicators. Of OLR, HRT, and influent COD, only OLR had any significant influence on the process indicators examined. All parameters except methane increased with increases in OLR; methane decreased with increased OLR. The OLR and gas production rate (GP) were observed to be linearly correlated.

U.S. NO2 trends (2005-2013): EPA Air Quality System (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Streets, David G.; Lu, Zifeng

2015-06-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO2 levels have decreased by 30-40% in the last decade. We quantify NO2 trends (2005-2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. We demonstrate that the current OMI NO2 algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence of trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO2 concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NOx emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO2 standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO2 reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO2 VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly

Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2015-05-01

Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

2010-2015 methane trends over Canada, the United States, and Mexico observed by the GOSAT satellite: contributions from different source sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, J. X.; Jacob, D.; Turner, A. J.; Maasakkers, J. D.; Benmergui, J. S.; Bloom, A. A.; Arndt, C.; Gautam, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.; Boesch, H.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We use six years (2010-2015) of methane column data from the GOSAT satellite to examine trends in atmospheric methane over North America and infer trends in emissions. Local methane enhancements above background are diagnosed in the GOSAT data on a 0.5°x0.5° grid by estimating the local background as the low (10th-25th) quantile of the deseasonalized frequency distributions of the data for individual years. Trends in methane enhancements on the 0.5°x0.5° grid are then aggregated nationally and for individual source sectors, using information from state-of-science bottom-up inventories, to increase statistical power. We infer that US methane emissions increased by 1.9% a-1 over the six-year period, with contributions from both oil/gas systems (possibly unconventional gas production) and from livestock in the Midwest (possibly swine production). Mexican emissions show a decrease that can be attributed to a decreasing cattle population. Canadian emissions show interannual variability driven by wetlands emissions and correlated with wetland areal extent. The US emission trends inferred from the GOSAT data are within the constraint provided by surface observations from the North American Carbon Program network.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

2016-07-20

The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides

Co-treatment of fruit and vegetable waste in sludge digesters. An analysis of the relationship among bio-methane generation, process stability and digestate phytotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Di Maria, Francesco; Sordi, Alessio; Cirulli, Giuseppe; Gigliotti, Giovanni; Massaccesi, Luisa; Cucina, Mirko

2014-09-01

The co-digestion of a variable amount of fruit and vegetable waste in a waste mixed sludge digester was investigated using a pilot scale apparatus. The organic loading rate (OLR) was increased from 1.46 kg VS/m(3) day to 2.8 kg VS/m(3) day. The hydraulic retention time was reduced from 14 days to about 10 days. Specific bio-methane production increased from about 90 NL/kg VS to the maximum value of about 430 NL/kg VS when OLR was increased from 1.46 kg VS/m(3) day to 2.1 kg VS/m(3) day. A higher OLR caused an excessive reduction in the hydraulic retention time, enhancing microorganism wash out. Process stability evaluated by the total volatile fatty acids concentration (mg/l) to the alkalinity buffer capacity (eq. mg/l CaCO3) ratio (i.e. FOS/TAC) criterion was 2.46 kg VS/m(3) day, GI decreased rapidly. This corresponding trend between FOS/TAC and GI was further investigated by the definition of the GI ratio (GIR) parameter. Comparison between GIR and FOS/TAC suggests that GI could be a suitable criterion for evaluating process stability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Low-Temperature (10?C) Anaerobic Digestion of Dilute Dairy Wastewater in an EGSB Bioreactor: Microbial Community Structure, Population Dynamics, and Kinetics of Methanogenic Populations

OpenAIRE

Bialek, Katarzyna; Cysneiros, Denise; O'Flaherty, Vincent

2013-01-01

The feasibility of anaerobic digestion of dairy wastewater at 10?C was investigated in a high height?:?diameter ratio EGSB reactor. Stable performance was observed at an applied organic loading rate (OLR) of 0.5?2?kg?COD?m?3?d?1 with chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies above 85%. When applied OLR increased to values above 2?kg?COD?m?3?d?1, biotreatment efficiency deteriorated, with methanogenesis being the rate-limiting step. The bioreactor recovered quickly (3 days) after reduc...

Space-borne Observations of Atmospheric Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas: Case Study for Greece 2008-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D. P.; Pulinets, S. A.; Davidenko, D. A.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P. T.

2013-01-01

We are conducting theoretical studies and practical validation of atm osphere/ionosphere phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on monitoring of two physical parameters from space: outgoi ng long-wavelength radiation (OLR) on the top of the atmosphere and e lectron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Tot al Electron Content (GPS/TEC). We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of OLR an GPS/TEC parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before four m ajor earthquakes (M>6) in Greece for 2008-2009: M6.9 of 02.12.08, M6. 2 02.20.08; M6.4 of 06.08.08 and M6.4 of 07.01.09.We found anomalous behavior before all of these events (over land and sea) over regions o f maximum stress. We expect that our analysis reveal the underlying p hysics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquakes in Greece.

Performance evaluation of a completely stirred anaerobic reactor treating pig manure at a low range of mesophilic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jianbin; Dong, Renjie; Clemens, Joachim; Wang, Wei

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The biogas process can run stably at 20 °C at extremely low OLR after long-term acclimation of bacteria. • A biogas plant running at 28 °C seems as efficient as that operated at 38 °C at low OLR of 1.3 g ODM L −1 d −1 . • Lower temperature operation is inadvisable for the commercial biogas plant running at rather high OLR. • The estimated sludge yield at 28 °C is higher than that at 38 °C. - Abstract: Many Chinese biogas plants run in the lower range of mesophilic conditions. This study evaluated the performance of a completely stirred anaerobic reactor treating pig manure at different temperatures (20, 28 and 38 °C). The start-up phase of the reactor at 20 °C was very long and extremely poor performance was observed with increasing organic loading rate (OLR). At an OLR of 4.3 g ODM L −1 d −1 , methane production at 28 °C was comparable (3% less) with that at 38 °C, but the risk of acidification was high at 28 °C. At low OLR (1.3 g ODM L −1 d −1 ), the biogas process appeared stable at 28 °C and gave same methane yields as compared to the reactor operating at 38 °C. The estimated sludge yield at 28 °C was 0.065 g VSS g −1 COD removed, which was higher than that at 38 °C (0.016 g VSS g −1 COD removed )

Effect of organic loading rate on methane and volatile fatty acids productions from anaerobic treatment of palm oil mill effluent in UASB and UFAF reactors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sumate Chaiprapat

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Anaerobic treatment of palm oil mill effluent (POME with the separation of the acidogenic and methanogenic phase was studied in an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB reactor and an up-flowanaerobic filter (UFAF reactor. Furthermore, the effect of OLR on methane and volatile fatty acid productions in UASB and UFAF reactors was investigated. In this research, UASB as acidogenic reactor wasused for volatile fatty acid production and UFAF as methanogenic reactor was used for methane production. Therefore, POME without pH adjustment was used as influent for the UASB reactor. Moreover, the syntheticwastewater with pH adjustment to 6.00 was fed into the UFAF reactor. The inoculum source for both reactors was the combination of POME sludge collected from the CSTR of a POME treatment plant and granulesludge collected from the UASB reactor of a frozen sea food industry treatment plant. During experimental operation, the organic loading rate (OLR was gradually increased from 2.50 to 17.5 g COD/l/day in theUASB reactor and 1.10 to 10.0 g COD/l/day in the UFAF reactor. Consequently, hydraulic retention time (HRT ranged from 20.0 to 2.90 days in the UASB reactor and from 13.5 to 1.50 days in the UFAF reactor.The result showed that the COD removal efficiency from both reactors was greater than 60.0%. In addition, the total volatile fatty acids increased with the increasing OLR. The total volatile fatty acids and acetic acidproduction in the UASB reactor reached 5.50 g/l and 4.90 g/l, respectively at OLR of 17.5 g COD/l/day and HRT of 2.90 days before washout was observed. In the UFAF reactor, the methane and biogas productionincreased with increasing OLR until an OLR of 7.50 g COD/l/day. However, the methane and biogas production significantly decreased when OLR increased up to 10.0 g COD/l/day. Therefore, the optimum OLR inthe laboratory-scale UASB and UFAF reactors were concluded to be 15.5 and 7.50 g COD/l/day, respectively.

The academic trend of Oriental Medicine during the Japanese colonial period as observed through the publication of medical books

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KIM Nam-il

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This thesis examines the academical trend of Oriental Medicine in the Japanese colonial period observed through medical books published during the Japanese colonial period.This is a period in which Western Medicine was introduced,and due to the lean-to-one-side policy by the Japanese, Western Medicine became the mainstream medical science while Oriental Medicine was pushed to the outskirts.Even after all this,the academic activity was flourishing during this period compared to any other periods. This article is divided into various chapters each with its own theme in order to understand the academic trend of Oriental Medicine during the Japanese colonial period.Focusing on the publication of medical books, this article is divided and observed according to various themes such as the study of Dong-Eui-Bo-Gam(東醫寶鑑,the study of Bang-Yak-Hap- Pyeun(方藥合編,the study of Sang-Han-Ron(傷寒論,the study of Sa-sang (四象constitutional medicine,the study of Eui-Hak-Ip-Mun (醫學入門,the study about Bu-Yang-Ron(扶陽論,On-Bo-Ron(溫補論,and pediatrics, compromise between Western and Oriental Medicine,the study of experience medicine,the study of acupuncture and moxibustion,and etc.

Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

2015-01-29

Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

Science.gov (United States)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

Sustainable organic loading rate and energy recovery potential of mesophilic anaerobic membrane bioreactor for municipal wastewater treatment

KAUST Repository

Wei, Chunhai

2014-08-01

The overall performance of a mesophilic anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) for synthetic municipal wastewater treatment was investigated under a range of organic loading rate (OLR). A very steady and high chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal (around 98%) was achieved over a broad range of volumetric OLR of 0.8-10gCOD/L/d. The sustainable volumetric and sludge OLR satisfying a permeate COD below 50mg/L for general reuse was 6gCOD/L/d and 0.63gCOD/gMLVSS (mixed liquor volatile suspended solids)/d, respectively. At a high sludge OLR of over 0.6gCOD/gMLVSS/d, the AnMBR achieved high methane production of over 300ml/gCOD (even approaching the theoretical value of 382ml/gCOD). A low biomass production of 0.015-0.026gMLVSS/gCOD and a sustainable flux of 6L/m2/h were observed. The integration of a heat pump and forward osmosis into the mesophilic AnMBR process would be a promising way for net energy recovery from typical municipal wastewater in a temperate area. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Sustainable organic loading rate and energy recovery potential of mesophilic anaerobic membrane bioreactor for municipal wastewater treatment

KAUST Repository

Wei, Chunhai; Harb, Moustapha; Amy, Gary L.; Hong, Pei-Ying; Leiknes, TorOve

2014-01-01

The overall performance of a mesophilic anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) for synthetic municipal wastewater treatment was investigated under a range of organic loading rate (OLR). A very steady and high chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal (around 98%) was achieved over a broad range of volumetric OLR of 0.8-10gCOD/L/d. The sustainable volumetric and sludge OLR satisfying a permeate COD below 50mg/L for general reuse was 6gCOD/L/d and 0.63gCOD/gMLVSS (mixed liquor volatile suspended solids)/d, respectively. At a high sludge OLR of over 0.6gCOD/gMLVSS/d, the AnMBR achieved high methane production of over 300ml/gCOD (even approaching the theoretical value of 382ml/gCOD). A low biomass production of 0.015-0.026gMLVSS/gCOD and a sustainable flux of 6L/m2/h were observed. The integration of a heat pump and forward osmosis into the mesophilic AnMBR process would be a promising way for net energy recovery from typical municipal wastewater in a temperate area. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

World trends from 2017

OpenAIRE

Janković Slobodan

2016-01-01

Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

Forest Dragon-3: Decadal Trends of Northeastern Forests in China from Earth Observation Synergy

Science.gov (United States)

Schmullius, C.; Balling, J.; Schratz, P.; Thiel, C.; Santoro, M.; Wegmuller, U.; Li, Z.; Yong, P.

2016-08-01

In Forest DRAGON 3, synergy of Earth Observation products to derive information of decadal trends of forest in northeast China was investigated. Following up the results of Forest-DRAGON 1 and 2, Growing Stock Volume (GSV) products from different years were investigated to derive information on vegetational in north- east China. The BIOMASAR maps of 2005 and 2010, produced within the previous DRAGON projects, set the base for all analyses. We took a closer look at scale problems regarding GSV derivation, which are introduced by differing landcover within one pixel, to investigate differences throughout pixel classes with varying landcover class percentages. We developed an approach to select pixels containing forest only with the aim of undertaking a detailed analysis on retrieved GSV values for such pixels for the years 2005 and 2010. Using existing land cover products at different scales, the plausibility of changes in the BIOMASAR maps were checked.

Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

2014-01-21

Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

OpenAIRE

ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

2014-01-01

Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

Effect of organic loading on a novel hydrogen bioreactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hafez, Hisham; El Naggar, M. Hesham; Elbeshbishy, Elsayed [Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5B9 (Canada); Nakhla, George [Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5B9 (Canada); Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5B9 (Canada); Baghchehsaraee, Bita [Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5B9 (Canada)

2010-01-15

This study investigated the impact of six organic loading rates (OLR) ranging from 6.5 gCOD/L-d to 206 gCOD/L-d on the performance of a novel integrated biohydrogen reactor clarifier systems (IBRCSs) comprised a continuously stirred reactor (CSTR) for biological hydrogen production, followed by an uncovered gravity settler for decoupling of solids retention time (SRT) from hydraulic retention time (HRT). The system was able to maintain a high molar hydrogen yield of 2.8 mol H{sub 2}/mol glucose at OLR ranging from 6.5 to 103 gCOD/L-d, but dropped precipitously to approximately 1.2 and 1.1 mol H{sub 2}/mol glucose for the OLRs of 154 and 206 gCOD/L-d, respectively. The optimum OLR at HRT of 8 h for maximizing both hydrogen molar yield and volumetric hydrogen production was 103 gCOD/L-d. A positive statistical correlation was observed between the molar hydrogen production and the molar acetate-to-butyrate ratio. Biomass yield correlated negatively with hydrogen yield, although not linearly. Analyzing the food-to-microorganisms (F/M) data in this study and others revealed that, both molar hydrogen yields and biomass specific hydrogen rates peaked at 2.8 mol H{sub 2}/mol glucose and 2.3 L/gVSS-d at F/M ratios ranging from 4.4 to 6.4 gCOD/gVSS-d. Microbial community analysis for OLRs of 6.5 and 25.7 gCOD/L-d showed the predominance of hydrogen producers such as Clostridium acetobutyricum, Klebsiella pneumonia, Clostridium butyricum, Clostridium pasteurianum. While at extremely high OLRs of 154 and 206 gCOD/L-d, a microbial shift was clearly evident due to the coexistence of the non-hydrogen producers such as Lactococcus sp. and Pseudomonas sp. (author)

Performance evaluation of an anaerobic fluidized bed reactor with natural zeolite as support material when treating high-strength distillery wastewater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fernandez, N. [Renewable Energy Technology Center (CETER), ' ' Jose Antonio Echeverria' ' Polytechnical University, Calle 127 s/n, CP 19390, Apdo. 6028, Habana 6 Marianao, Ciudad de La Habana (Cuba); Montalvo, S. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Santiago de Chile University, Ave. Lib. Bernardo O' Higgins 3363, Santiago de Chile (Chile); Borja, R.; Travieso, L.; Raposo, F. [Instituto de la Grasa (CSIC), Avenida Padre Garcia Tejero 4, 41012 Sevilla (Spain); Guerrero, L. [Department of Chemical, Biotechnological and Environmental Processes, Federico Santa Maria Technical University, Casilla 110-V, Valparaiso (Chile); Sanchez, E.; Colmenarejo, M.F. [Centro de Ciencias Medioambientales (CSIC), C/Serrano, 115-Duplicado, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Cortes, I. [Environment Nacional Center, Chile University, Ave. Larrain 9975, La Reina, Santiago de Chile (Chile)

2008-11-15

The performance of two laboratory-scale fluidized bed reactors with natural zeolite as support material when treating high-strength distillery wastewater was assessed. Two sets of experiments were carried out. In the first experimental set, the influences of the organic loading rate (OLR), the fluidization level (FL) and the particle diameter of the natural zeolite (D{sub P}) were evaluated. This experimental set was carried out at an OLR from 2 to 5 g COD (chemical oxygen demand)/l d, at FL 20% and 40% and with D{sub P} in the range of 0.2-0.5 mm (reactor 1) and of 0.5-0.8 mm (reactor 2). It was demonstrated that OLR and FL had a slight influence on COD removal, whereas they had a strong influence on the methane production rate. The COD removal was slightly higher for the highest particle diameter used. The second experimental set was carried out at an OLR from 3 to 20 g COD/l d with 25% of fluidization and D{sub P} in the above-mentioned ranges for reactors 1 and 2. The performance of the two reactors was similar; no significant differences were found. The COD removal efficiency correlated with the OLR based on a straight line. COD removal efficiencies higher than 80% were achieved in both reactors without significant differences. In addition, a straight line equation with a slope of 1.74 d{sup -1} and an intercept on the y-axis equal to zero described satisfactorily the effect of the influent COD on the COD removal rate. It was also observed that both COD removal rate and methane production (Q{sub M}) increased linearly with the OLR, independently of the D{sub P} used. (author)

Organic loading rates affect composition of soil-derived bacterial communities during continuous, fermentative biohydrogen production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Yonghua; Bruns, Mary Ann [Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Zhang, Husen; Salerno, Michael; Logan, Bruce E. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

2008-11-15

Bacterial community composition during steady-state, fermentative H{sub 2} production was compared across a range of organic loading rates (OLRs) of 0.5-19 g COD l{sup -1} h{sup -1} in a 2-l continuous flow reactor at 30 C. The varied OLRs were achieved with glucose concentrations of 2.5-10 g l{sup -1} and hydraulic retention times of 1-10 h. The synthetic wastewater feed was amended with L-cysteine and maintained at a pH of 5.5. For each run at a given glucose concentration, the reactor was inoculated with an aliquot of well-mixed agricultural topsoil that had been heat-treated to reduce numbers of vegetative cells. At OLRs less than 2 g COD l{sup -1} h{sup -1}, DNA sequences from ribosomal RNA intergenic spacer analysis profiles revealed more diverse and variable populations (Selenomonas, Enterobacter, and Clostridium spp.) than were observed above 2 g COD l{sup -1} h{sup -1} (Clostridium spp. only). An isolate, LYH1, was cultured from a reactor sample (10 g glucose l{sup -1} at a 10-h HRT) on medium containing L-cysteine. In confirming H{sub 2} production by LYH1 in liquid batch culture, lag periods for H{sub 2} production in the presence and absence of L-cysteine were 5 and 50 h, respectively. The 16S rRNA gene sequence of LYH1 indicated that the isolate was a Clostridium sp. affiliated with RNA subcluster Ic, with >99% similarity to Clostridium sp. FRB1. In fluorescent in situ hybridization tests, an oligonucleotide probe complementary to the 16S rRNA of LYH1 hybridized with 90% of cells observed at an OLR of 2 g COD h{sup -1}, compared to 26% of cells at an OLR of 0.5 g COD l{sup -1} h{sup -1}. An OLR of 2 g COD l{sup -1} h{sup -1} appeared to be a critical threshold above which clostridia were better able to outcompete Enterobacteriaceae and other organisms in the mixed soil inoculum. Our results are discussed in light of other biohydrogen studies employing pure cultures and mixed inocula. (author)

Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.

2014-10-01

Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Associations among 25-year trends in diet, cholesterol and BMI from 140,000 observations in men and women in Northern Sweden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johansson Ingegerd

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the 1970s, men in northern Sweden had among the highest prevalences of cardiovascular diseases (CVD worldwide. An intervention program combining population- and individual-oriented activities was initiated in 1985. Concurrently, collection of information on medical risk factors, lifestyle and anthropometry started. Today, these data make up one of the largest databases in the world on diet intake in a population-based sample, both in terms of sample size and follow-up period. The study examines trends in food and nutrient intake, serum cholesterol and body mass index (BMI from 1986 to 2010 in northern Sweden. Methods Cross-sectional information on self-reported food and nutrient intake and measured body weight, height, and serum cholesterol were compiled for over 140,000 observations. Trends and trend breaks over the 25-year period were evaluated for energy-providing nutrients, foods contributing to fat intake, serum cholesterol and BMI. Results Reported intake of fat exhibited two significant trend breaks in both sexes: a decrease between 1986 and 1992 and an increase from 2002 (women or 2004 (men. A reverse trend was noted for carbohydrates, whereas protein intake remained unchanged during the 25-year period. Significant trend breaks in intake of foods contributing to total fat intake were seen. Reported intake of wine increased sharply for both sexes (more so for women and export beer increased for men. BMI increased continuously for both sexes, whereas serum cholesterol levels decreased during 1986 - 2004, remained unchanged until 2007 and then began to rise. The increase in serum cholesterol coincided with the increase in fat intake, especially with intake of saturated fat and fats for spreading on bread and cooking. Conclusions Men and women in northern Sweden decreased their reported fat intake in the first 7 years (1986–1992 of an intervention program. After 2004 fat intake increased sharply for both genders

Development trends of the international derivatives market

OpenAIRE

Motorniuk, U.; Terebukh, M.; Kharchuk, V.

2016-01-01

The factors forming international derivatives market trends are researched in this article. The history of the formation of the global derivatives market was analyzed, in particular, events which have led to the growth of the derivatives market. Global derivatives market has revealed major changes in its trends and witnessed the gradual transformation of its structure, observed in recent years. Global derivatives market has revealed major changes in its trends and witnessed the gradual transf...

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Recent trends of plutonium deposition observed in Japan: comparison with naturallithogenic radionuclides, thorium isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirose, K.; Igarashi, Y.; Aoyama, M.

2005-01-01

Plutonium in monthly deposition samples from 2000 to end of 2003 collected to Tsukuba (the Meteorological Research Institute), Japan is reported, together with monthly thorium deposition. The annual deposition of 239,240 Pri during the past 18 years. ranged from 1.7 to 7.8 mBq m -2 y -1 shows no systematic inter-annual variation. However, a maximum annual 239,240 Pu deposition (7.8 mBq m -2 y -1 ) was observed in 2002. On the other hand, monthly 239,240 Pu depositions show a typical seasonal variation with a maximum in spring season (March to April), which corresponds to the seasonal cycle of generation of dust storms in the East Asian arid area. Thorium, which is a typical lithogenic radionuclide, reflects soil-derived particles in the atmospheric dust. The monthly Th deposition showed a typical seasonal trend with a maximum in spring and minimum in summer. The 230 Th/ 232 Th activity ratios in the deposition samples significantly differed from that in surface soils collected in Tsukuba area, which means that a significant part of thorium in deposition samples is not derived from suspension of local soil particles. The result reveals that the resent 239,240 Pu deposition observed in Japan are attributed to resuspension of deposited plutonium; resuspended plutonium originates from the East Asian continent desert and arid areas. These findings suggest that a significant amount of soil dust observed in Tsukuba is attributable to the long-range transport of continental dust from the East Asian arid areas. Plutonium in deposition samples as does thorium would become a proxy of the environmental change in the Asian continent.

Effect of organic loading rate on fermentative hydrogen production from continuous stirred tank and membrane bioreactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Lihong [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1A4 (Canada); Bagley, David M. [Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Dept. 3295, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, WY 82071 (United States); Liss, Steven N. [Department of Environmental Biology, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1 (Canada)

2009-05-15

The influence of organic loading rates (OLRs) on the performance of fermentative hydrogen-producing bioreactors operating in continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and membrane bioreactor (MBR) modes was examined. Five OLRs were examined, ranging from 4.0 to 30 g COD L{sup -1} d{sup -1}, with influent glucose concentrations ranging from 1.3 to 10 g COD L{sup -1}. At OLRs up to 13 g COD L{sup -1} d{sup -1}, all influent glucose was utilized and the H{sub 2} yield was not significantly influenced by OLR, although the yield in the CSTR mode was significantly higher than that in the MBR mode, 1.25 versus 0.97 mol H{sub 2} (mol Gluc. Conv.){sup -1}, respectively. At an OLR of 30 g COD L{sup -1} d{sup -1}, both reactor modes were overloaded with respect to glucose utilization and also had significantly higher H{sub 2} yields of 1.77 and 1.49 mol H{sub 2} (mol Gluc. Conv.){sup -1} for the CSTR and MBR modes, respectively, versus the underloaded operation. At the intermediate OLR of 22 g COD L{sup -1} d{sup -1}, the H{sub 2} yield was maximized at 1.78 mol H{sub 2} (mol Gluc. Conv.){sup -1} for both the CSTR and MBR operation. Overall H{sub 2} production was 50% higher in the MBR mode, 0.78 versus 0.51 moles d{sup -1}, because the CSTR mode was overloaded with respect to glucose utilization at this OLR. These results suggest that an optimum OLR that maximizes H{sub 2} yield and H{sub 2} production may be near the OLR that causes overload with respect to substrate utilization. Additionally, while the CSTR mode is easier to operate and provides higher H{sub 2} yields at underloaded and overloaded OLRs, the MBR mode may be preferable when operating near the optimum OLR. (author)

Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

2010-01-01

Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

KAUST Repository

Mahajan, Salil

2011-05-11

Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Harvesting Collective Trend Observations from Large Scale Study Trips

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksen, Kaare; Ovesen, Nis

2014-01-01

To enhance industrial design students’ decoding and understanding of the technological possibilities and the diversity of needs and preferences in different cultures it is not unusual to arrange study trips where such students acquire a broader view to strengthen their professional skills and app...... numbers of students to the annual Milan Design Week and the Milan fair ‘I Saloni’ in Italy. The present paper describes and evaluates the method, the theory behind it, the practical execution of the trend registration, the results from the activities and future perspectives....... and approach, hence linking the design education and the design culture of the surrounding world. To improve the professional learning it is useful, though, to facilitate and organize the trips in a way that involves systematic data collection and reporting. This paper presents a method for facilitating study...

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of their causes. Pt. 1; Regional approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liepert, B [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung; Fabian, P [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung; Grassl, H [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

The possible longterm variation of daily sums of global solar radiation (direct plus diffuse solar radiation) in West-Germany was analysed for twelve stations of the German Weather Service (DWD). The global solar radiation decreased remarkably at seven stations (List/Sylt, Norderney, Hamburg, Braunlage, Wuerzburg, Weihenstephan, Hohenpeissenberg) and showed no significant variations at the remaining five stations (Braunschweig, Bocholt, Gelsenkirchen, Trier and Freiburg). The average decline is 3.7[+-]1.3% per decade in the last 15 to 39 years. The locally varying causes for the decline are changes in cloud parameters, fog occurrence and tropospheric aerosol. In this part of the article some possible causes, such as solar variability, increased number of contrails, decreased surface reflectivity, increased volcanic aerosol load in the 1980's or increased water vapour column content could be excluded. With a more sophisticated statistical procedure the effect of changes in cloud parameters and the effect of changed clear sky turbidity could not only be separated for each month for Hohenpeissenberg and Wuerzburg but also made mainly responsible for the observed trend. In Part II (Grabbe, Grassl), more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. (orig.)

Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

Science.gov (United States)

Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

2018-01-01

We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

[Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

2013-10-01

To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Collins, M.; Hazeleger, W.

2013-01-01

Clear precipitation trends have been observed in Europe over the past century. In winter, precipitation has increased in north-western Europe. In summer, there has been an increase along many coasts in the same area. Over the second half of the past century precipitation also decreased in southern

Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion in ferrofluids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shulyma, S.I., E-mail: kiw_88@mail.ru; Tanygin, B.M., E-mail: b.m.tanygin@gmail.com; Kovalenko, V.F.; Petrychuk, M.V.

2016-10-15

Effects of pulse magnetic field on the optical transmission properties of thin ferrofluid (FF) layers were experimentally investigated. It was observed that, under an influence of an external uniform magnetic field, pulses applied to the samples surfaces in normal direction decrease the optical transmission with further returning it to its original state, even before the end of the field pulse. The dependencies of the observed effects on the magnetic pulse magnitude and the samples thickness were investigated. The experimental results are explained using FF columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence under influence of a magnetic field, leading to a light scattering type Rayleigh-to-Mie transition. Further evolution of this process comes to a geometrical optics scale and respective macroscopic observable opaque FF columnar aggregates emergence. These changes of optical transmission are non-monotonic during the magnetic field pulse duration with minimal value in the case of Mie scattering, which is known as a magneto-optical extinction trend inversion. The residual inversion was detected after the external magnetic field pulse falling edge. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we showed that a homogeneous external magnetic field is enough for the formation of columnar aggregates and their fusion. The results clarify the known Li theory (Li et al., 2004, 2007), implying an inhomogeneous field as a required prerequisite for the magneto-optical extinction trend inversion phenomenon. - Highlights: • Ferrofluid columnar aggregates have been observed in a homogeneous magnetic field. • Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion is related to the Mie light scattering. • Crucial role of columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence has been revealed. • Residual extinction trend inversion was observed after the field switch off.

Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion in ferrofluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shulyma, S.I.; Tanygin, B.M.; Kovalenko, V.F.; Petrychuk, M.V.

2016-01-01

Effects of pulse magnetic field on the optical transmission properties of thin ferrofluid (FF) layers were experimentally investigated. It was observed that, under an influence of an external uniform magnetic field, pulses applied to the samples surfaces in normal direction decrease the optical transmission with further returning it to its original state, even before the end of the field pulse. The dependencies of the observed effects on the magnetic pulse magnitude and the samples thickness were investigated. The experimental results are explained using FF columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence under influence of a magnetic field, leading to a light scattering type Rayleigh-to-Mie transition. Further evolution of this process comes to a geometrical optics scale and respective macroscopic observable opaque FF columnar aggregates emergence. These changes of optical transmission are non-monotonic during the magnetic field pulse duration with minimal value in the case of Mie scattering, which is known as a magneto-optical extinction trend inversion. The residual inversion was detected after the external magnetic field pulse falling edge. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we showed that a homogeneous external magnetic field is enough for the formation of columnar aggregates and their fusion. The results clarify the known Li theory (Li et al., 2004, 2007), implying an inhomogeneous field as a required prerequisite for the magneto-optical extinction trend inversion phenomenon. - Highlights: • Ferrofluid columnar aggregates have been observed in a homogeneous magnetic field. • Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion is related to the Mie light scattering. • Crucial role of columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence has been revealed. • Residual extinction trend inversion was observed after the field switch off.

NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

2011-01-01

We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

Observational Trends of Cometary X-ray Emission

Science.gov (United States)

Lisse, C. M.

2001-05-01

The unexpected discovery of x-ray emission from Comet Hyakutake in March 1996 (Lisse et al. 1996) has produced a number of questions about the physical mechanism producing the radiation. The original detection and subsequent observations (Dennerl et al. 1997, Mumma et al. 1997, Krasnopolsky et al. 1998, Owens et al. 1998, Lisse et al. 1999, Lisse et a. 2001, Dennerl et al. 2001) have shown that the very soft (best fit thermal bremsstrahlung model kT = 0.23 keV) emission is due to an interaction between the solar wind and the comet's atmosphere. Using the results from the more than 15 comets detected to date in x-rays, we report on the latest results on cometary x-ray emission. Our emphasis will be on understanding the physical mechanism producing the emission, and using this to determine the nature of the cometary coma and solar wind flux. As-observed morphologies, spectra, and light curves will be discussed. We also report on the status of current cometary observations using the new powerful x-ray observatories Chandra and XMM. This work has been graciously supported by grants from the NASA Planetary Astronomy and Astrophysical Data Programs.

Outgoing Longwave Radiation Daily Climate Data Record (OLR Daily CDR)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The product contains the 1-degree by 1-degree daily mean outgoing longwave radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from HIRS radiance observations...

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

Science.gov (United States)

Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

Time trends of cancer mortality among elderly in Italy, 1970–2008: an observational study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bidoli Ettore

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aging of the Italian population will unavoidably lead to a growing number of persons diagnosed and living with cancer. A comprehensive description of the burden of cancer mortality among Italian elderly (65-84 years of age in the last four decades has not been carried out yet. Cancer mortality rates were used to describe time trends between 1970-2008. Methods Mortality counts, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, were grouped according to data availability: in quinquennia from 1970-74 through 1995-99, and in 2000-03 and 2006-08 groups. Age-standardized rates (world population were computed by calendar periods while annual percent changes (APCs were computed for elderly and middle aged (35-64 years people for the period 1995-2008. Results The number of cancer deaths in elderly nearly doubled between 1970-74 (31,400 deaths/year in men, and 24,000 in women and 2006-08 (63,000 deaths/year in men, and 42,000 in women. Overall cancer mortality rates peaked during the quinquennia 1985-89 and 1990-94 (about 1,500/100,000 in men and 680 in women and declined thereafter. Throughout 1995-2008 cancer mortality rates decreased by -1.6%/year in men and -0.9%/year in women. These decreases were mainly driven by cancers of the stomach, bladder, prostate, and lung (APC = -3.3%, -2.7%, -2.5%, -2.2%, respectively in men, and by cancers of the stomach, bladder, and breast (APC = -3.5%, -1.9%, -1.1%, respectively in women. Conversely, increases in mortality rates between 1995 and 2008 were recorded for lung cancer (APC = +0.6% in women, cutaneous melanoma (APC = +1.7% in men, and pancreatic cancer (APC = +0.6% in men and +0.9% in women. Conclusions Overall favorable trends in cancer mortality were observed among Italian elderly between 1995 and 2008. Early diagnosis, improved efficacy of anti-cancer treatments and management of comorbidities are the most likely explanations of these positive

Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

Explanation of the observed trend in the mean excitation energy of a target as determined using several projectiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabrera-Trujillo, R.; Sabin, J.R.; Oddershede, J.

2003-01-01

Recently, Porter observed [L.E. Porter, Int. J. Quantum Chem. 90, 684 (2002)] that the mean excitation energy and stopping cross section of a target, obtained from fitting experimental data at given projectile charge to a modified Bethe-Block theory, gives projectile dependent results. The main result of his work is that there is a trend for the inferred target mean excitation energy, to decrease as the projectile atomic number increases. However, this result is inconsistent with the usual definition of the mean excitation energy as a function of target excitation properties only. Here we present an explanation of Porter's results based on the Bethe theory extended to take projectile electronic structure explicitly into account

Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre

2017-01-01

Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded

Organic loading rate effect on the acidogenesis of cheese whey: a comparison between UASB and SBR reactors.

Science.gov (United States)

Calero, R; Iglesias-Iglesias, R; Kennes, C; Veiga, M C

2017-09-16

Volatile fatty acids (VFA) production and degree of acidification (DA) were investigated in the anaerobic treatment of cheese whey by comparison of two processes: a continuous process using a laboratory upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor and a discontinuous process using a sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The main purpose of this work was to study the organic loading rate (OLR) effect on the yield of VFA in two kinds of reactors. The predominant products in the acidogenic process in both reactors were: acetate, propionate, butyrate and valerate. The maximum DA obtained was 98% in an SBR at OLR of 2.7 g COD L -1 d -1 , and 97% in the UASB at OLR at 15.1 g COD L -1 d -1 . The results revealed that the UASB reactor was more efficient at a medium OLR with a higher VFA yield, while with the SBR reactor, the maximum acidification was obtained at a lower OLR with changes in the VFA profile at different OLRs applied.

Effects of organic loading rate on biogas production from macroalgae: Performance and microbial community structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Meng-Ting; Fan, Xiao-Lei; Zhao, Xiao-Xian; Fu, Shan-Fei; He, Shuai; Manasa, M R K; Guo, Rong-Bo

2017-07-01

Macroalgae biomass has been considered as a promising feedstock for biogas production. In order to improve the efficiency of anaerobic digestion (AD) of macroalgae, semi-continuous fermentation was conducted to examine the effects of organic loading rate (OLR) on biogas production from Macrocystis pyrifer. Results showed that, under OLRs of 1.37, 2.74, 4.12 and 6.85kgVS substrate /(m 3 ·d), the average unit biogas yields were 438.9, 477.3, 480.1 and 188.7mL/(gVS substrate d), respectively. It indicated that biogas production was promoted by the increased OLR in an appropriate range while inhibited by the OLR beyond the appropriate range. The investigation on physical-chemical parameters revealed that unfavorable VFAs concentration, pH and salinity might be the main causes for system failure due to the overrange OLR, while the total phenols failed to reach the inhibitory concentration. Microbial community analysis demonstrated that several bacterial and archaeal phyla altered with increase in OLR apparently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the Information Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Thomas H.

1987-01-01

The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

Integration of ozonation and an anaerobic sequencing batch reactor (AnSBR) for the treatment of cherry stillage.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez, Pedro M; Beltrán, Fernando J; Rodríguez, Eva M

2005-01-01

Cherry stillage is a high strength organic wastewater arising from the manufacture of alcoholic products by distillation of fermented cherries. It is made up of biorefractory polyphenols in addition to readily biodegradable organic matter. An anaerobic sequencing batch reactor (AnSBR) was used to treat cherry stillage at influent COD ranging from 5 to 50 g/L. Different cycle times were selected to test biomass organic loading rates (OLR(B)), from 0.3 to 1.2 g COD/g VSS.d. COD and TOC efficiency removals higher than 80% were achieved at influent COD up to 28.5 g/L but minimum OLR(B) tested. However, as a result of the temporary inhibition of acetogens and methanogens, volatile fatty acids (VFA) noticeably accumulated and methane production came to a transient standstill when operating at influent COD higher than 10 g/L. At these conditions, the AnSBR showed signs of instability and could not operate efficiently at OLR(B) higher than 0.3 g COD/g VSS.d. A feasible explanation for this inhibition is the presence of toxic polyphenols in cherry stillage. Thus, an ozonation step prior to the AnSBR was observed to be useful, since more than 75% of polyphenols could be removed by ozone. The integrated process was shown to be a suitable treatment technology as the following advantages compared to the single AnSBR treatment were observed: greater polyphenols and color removals, higher COD and TOC removal rates thus enabling the process to effectively operate at higher OLR, higher degree of biomethanation, and good stability with less risk of acidification.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Trend curve data development and testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

1986-01-01

Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and γ-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Empirically derived end-of-life (EOL) and life-extension-range (LER) trend curves are presented and discussed in this paper for high temperature [∼288 0 C (550 0 F)] irradiation of two weld, two plate, and two forging pressure vessel (PV) steels and low-temperature [∼60 0 C (140 0 F)] irradiation of one support structure-type steel

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

2014-01-01

The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bremer

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO₂ content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hines, Paul; Apt, Jay; Talukdar, Sarosh

2009-01-01

Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.

Explaining NDVI trends in northern Burkina Faso

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Kjeld; Fensholt, Rasmus; Fog, Bjarne

2014-01-01

by a distinct spatial pattern and strongly dominated by negative trends in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The aim of the paper is to explain this distinct pattern. When studied over the period 2000–2012, using NDVI data from the MODIS sensor the spatial pattern of NDVI trends indicates that non......-climatic factors are involved. By relating NDVI trends to landscape elements and land use change we demonstrate that NDVI trends in the north-western parts of the study area are mostly related to landscape elements, while this is not the case in the south-eastern parts, where rapidly changing land use, including....... expansion of irrigation, plays a major role. It is inferred that a process of increased redistribution of fine soil material, water and vegetation from plateaus and slopes to valleys, possibly related to higher grazing pressure, may provide an explanation of the observed pattern of NDVI trends. Further work...

Quality assurance tracking and trending system (QATTS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, W.J.

1987-01-01

In 1984, The Philadelphia Electric Company (PECo) Quality Assurance (QA) Division recognized a need to modify the existing quality finding tracking program to generate a nuclear trending program that could detect trends of PECo-initiated findings that were not detectable to a day-to-day observer. Before 1984, each quality organization in PECo had a separate tracking system. An adequate quality trending program demanded that all findings be tracked in a common data base. The Quality Assurance Tracking and Trending System (QATTS) is divided into two parts, an on-line subsystem that provides access to QATTS data via corporate computer data screens and a reports and graphics subsystem that connects commercially available reports and graphic software computer packages to the QATTS data base. The QATTS can be accessed from any terminal connected to the main frame computer at PECo headquarters. The paper discusses the tracking system, report generation, responsible organization commitment tracking system (ROCT), and trending program

Level and Temporal Trend of Perfluoroalkyl Acids in Greenlandic Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

2012-01-01

bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoran Kovač

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

Science.gov (United States)

Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

Science.gov (United States)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Mapping of the DLQI scores to EQ-5D utility values using ordinal logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Faraz Mahmood; Kay, Richard; Finlay, Andrew Y; Piguet, Vincent; Kupfer, Joerg; Dalgard, Florence; Salek, M Sam

2017-11-01

The Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and the European Quality of Life-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) are separate measures that may be used to gather health-related quality of life (HRQoL) information from patients. The EQ-5D is a generic measure from which health utility estimates can be derived, whereas the DLQI is a specialty-specific measure to assess HRQoL. To reduce the burden of multiple measures being administered and to enable a more disease-specific calculation of health utility estimates, we explored an established mathematical technique known as ordinal logistic regression (OLR) to develop an appropriate model to map DLQI data to EQ-5D-based health utility estimates. Retrospective data from 4010 patients were randomly divided five times into two groups for the derivation and testing of the mapping model. Split-half cross-validation was utilized resulting in a total of ten ordinal logistic regression models for each of the five EQ-5D dimensions against age, sex, and all ten items of the DLQI. Using Monte Carlo simulation, predicted health utility estimates were derived and compared against those observed. This method was repeated for both OLR and a previously tested mapping methodology based on linear regression. The model was shown to be highly predictive and its repeated fitting demonstrated a stable model using OLR as well as linear regression. The mean differences between OLR-predicted health utility estimates and observed health utility estimates ranged from 0.0024 to 0.0239 across the ten modeling exercises, with an average overall difference of 0.0120 (a 1.6% underestimate, not of clinical importance). This modeling framework developed in this study will enable researchers to calculate EQ-5D health utility estimates from a specialty-specific study population, reducing patient and economic burden.

Sewage treatment in integrated system of UASB reactor and duckweed pond and reuse for aquaculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohapatra, D P; Ghangrekar, M M; Mitra, A; Brar, S K

2012-06-01

The performance of a laboratory-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor and a duckweed pond containing Lemna gibba was investigated for suitability for treating effluent for use in aquaculture. While treating low-strength sewage having a chemical oxygen demand (COD) of typically less than 200 mg/L, with an increase in hydraulic retention time (HRT) from 10.04 to 33.49 h, COD removal efficiency of the UASB reactor decreased owing to a decrease in organic loading rate (OLR) causing poor mixing in the reactor. However, even at the lower OLR (0.475 kg COD/(m3 x d)), the UASB reactor gave a removal efficiency of 68% for COD and 74% for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). The maximum COD, BOD, ammonia-nitrogen and phosphate removal efficiencies of the duckweed pond were 40.77%, 38.01%, 61.87% and 88.57%, respectively. Decreasing the OLR by increasing the HRT resulted in an increase in efficiency of the duckweed pond for removal of ammonia-nitrogen and phosphate. The OLR of 0.005 kg COD/(m2 x d) and HRT of 108 h in the duckweed pond satisfied aquaculture quality requirements. A specific growth rate of 0.23% was observed for tilapia fish fed with duckweed harvested from the duckweed pond. The economic analysis proved that it was beneficial to use the integrated system of a UASB reactor and a duckweed pond for treatment of sewage.

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Canudas-Romo, V

2010-01-01

at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

2012-03-19

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

Evaluation of the sensitivity of the Amazonian diurnal cycle to convective intensity in reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Itterly, Kyle F.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2017-02-01

Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics—specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

Science.gov (United States)

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Analysis of gravity data using trend surfaces

Science.gov (United States)

Asimopolos, Natalia-Silvia; Asimopolos, Laurentiu

2013-04-01

In this paper we have developed algorithms and related software programs for calculating of trend surfaces of higher order. These methods of analysis of trends, like mobile media applications are filtration systems for geophysical data in surface. In particular we presented few case studies for gravity data and gravity maps. Analysis with polynomial trend surfaces contributes to the recognition, isolation and measurement of trends that can be represented by surfaces or hyper-surfaces (in several sizes), thus achieving a separation in regional variations and local variations. This separation is achieved by adjusting the trend function at different values. Trend surfaces using the regression analysis satisfy the criterion of least squares. The difference between the surface of trend and the observed value in a certain point is the residual value. Residual sum of squares of these values should be minimal as the criterion of least squares. The trend surface is considered as regional or large-scale and the residual value will be regarded as local or small-scale component. Removing the regional trend has the effect of highlighting local components represented by residual values. Surface analysis and hyper-surfaces principles are applied to the surface trend and any number of dimensions. For hyper-surfaces we can work with polynomial functions with four or more variables (three variables of space and other variables for interest parameters) that have great importance in some applications. In the paper we presented the mathematical developments about generalized trend surfaces and case studies about gravimetric data. The trend surfaces have the great advantage that the effect of regional anomalies can be expressed as analytic functions. These tendency surfaces allows subsequent mathematical processing and interesting generalizations, with great advantage to work with polynomial functions compared with the original discrete data. For gravity data we estimate the depth of

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Trends in childhood injury mortality in South African population ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Trends in major causes of injury mortality and the proportion of total deaths attributable to injuries trom 1968·to 1985 tor white, coloured and Asian children < 15 years in the RSA were examined. There were 937 injury deaths in 1968 and 853 in 1985 but no clear trends in overall mortality rates were observed. There were ...

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hayakawa, M.; Mogi, K.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Current and future trends in cloud CRM

OpenAIRE

Nemček, Sebastian

2011-01-01

The diploma thesis is committed to mapping CRM applications available in cloud and trends within. The goal is to describe what CRM is, how it evolved into Cloud CRM, analyze main differences between the two approaches and analyze trends that can be observed in CRM market and CRM applications. This is coupled with description of the most common CRM solutions and products available both on-premises as well as on-demand. In the first part, the thesis introduces theory behind Customer Relationshi...

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Trend curve data development and testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

1986-08-01

Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and gamma-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Two principal questions asked concerning the metallurgical condition of the pressure vessel and its support structures are: What are the controlling variables; and What effects do they have on changing the metallurgical properties of the vessel and its support structures throughout their lifetimes

Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations

Science.gov (United States)

Rawlins, M.A.; Steele, M.; Holland, M.M.; Adam, J.C.; Cherry, J.E.; Francis, J.A.; Groisman, P.Y.; Hinzman, L.D.; Huntington, T.G.; Kane, D.L.; Kimball, J.S.; Kwok, R.; Lammers, R.B.; Lee, C.M.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; McDonald, K.C.; Podest, E.; Pundsack, J.W.; Rudels, B.; Serreze, Mark C.; Shiklomanov, A.; Skagseth, O.; Troy, T.J.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Wensnahan, M.; Wood, E.F.; Woodgate, R.; Yang, D.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, T.

2010-01-01

Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

Trend analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

1991-01-01

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manhai Long

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982–2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998–2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998–2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. Conclusions: We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. T. Akhil Raj

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Observed trend in Asian dust days in South Korea and its geo-physiographical implications

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Soohyun; Paik, Kyungrock

2015-04-01

South Korea has experienced significant socio-economic damages by Asian dust (also called Yellow sand or Yellow dust). Asian dust is a wind-driven natural phenomenon that carries fine sand particles along with surface pollutants from semi-arid areas in northern China, Inner Mongolia, the Gobi Desert, and the Taklimakan Desert to the East Asia. Its occurrence requires three necessary conditions: dry soil in source areas, strong ascending air current to lift sand particles up, and intense wind speed to transport the particles. Accordingly, the drier source areas are, the larger amount of source materials for Asian dust becomes. Further, regional wind speed and direction are key elements that determine the influencing boundary and level of damage. In this study, we investigate number of Asian dust days over South Korea. We utilize monthly data over 50 years (from 1961 to 2013) recorded at 12 stations, operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration, which are evenly distributed over the country. We find that annual number of Asian dust days in South Korea tends to increase until early 2000s and the increasing trend is ceased since then. Interestingly, this transition time (early 2000s) matches the time when the surface wind speed trend has reversed (Kim and Paik, 2015). Hence, we hypothesize that occurrence of Asian dust in South Korea can be largely captured by surface wind, instead of air circulation at high altitude. We also hypothesize that the transition in the trend around early 2000s is associated with expansion of cold air system during winter over the East Asia. Detailed analysis to support these findings will be presented. Reference Kim, JC., & Paik, K. (2015). Recent recovery of surface wind speed after decadal decrease: A focus on South Korea. Climate Dynamics, (Under review).

The application of cat swarm optimisation algorithm in classifying small loan performance

Science.gov (United States)

Kencana, Eka N.; Kiswanti, Nyoman; Sari, Kartika

2017-10-01

It is common for banking system to analyse the feasibility of credit application before its approval. Although this process has been carefully done, there is no warranty that all credits will be repaid smoothly. This study aimed to know the accuracy of Cat Swarm Optimisation (CSO) algorithm in classifying small loans’ performance that is approved by Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), one of several public banks in Indonesia. Data collected from 200 lenders were used in this work. The data matrix consists of 9 independent variables that represent profile of the credit, and one categorical dependent variable reflects credit’s performance. Prior to the analyses, data was divided into two data subset with equal size. Ordinal logistic regression (OLR) procedure is applied for the first subset and gave 3 out of 9 independent variables i.e. the amount of credit, credit’s period, and income per month of lender proved significantly affect credit performance. By using significantly estimated parameters from OLR procedure as the initial values for observations at the second subset, CSO procedure started. This procedure gave 76 percent of classification accuracy of credit performance, slightly better compared to 64 percent resulted from OLR procedure.

Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

Non-response bias in physical activity trend estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bauman Adrian

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Increases in reported leisure time physical activity (PA and obesity have been observed in several countries. One hypothesis for these apparently contradictory trends is differential bias in estimates over time. The purpose of this short report is to examine the potential impact of changes in response rates over time on the prevalence of adequate PA in Canadian adults. Methods Participants were recruited in representative national telephone surveys of PA from 1995-2007. Differences in PA prevalence estimates between participants and those hard to reach were assessed using Student's t tests adjusted for multiple comparisons. Results The number of telephone calls required to reach and speak with someone in the household increased over time, as did the percentage of selected participants who initially refused during the first interview attempt. A higher prevalence of adequate PA was observed with 5-9 attempts to reach anyone in the household in 1999-2002, but this was not significant after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Conclusion No significant impact on PA trend estimates was observed due to differential non response rates. It is important for health policy makers to understand potential biases and how these may affect secular trends in all aspects of the energy balance equation.

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

2016-01-01

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Colella

Full Text Available In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity. Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication. Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020 and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I and coastal (i.e., Case II waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However

Measurements and trend analysis of O2, CO2 and δ13C of CO2 from the high altitude research station Junfgraujoch, Switzerland - A comparison with the observations from the remote site Puy de Dome, France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valentino, Francesco L.; Leuenberger, Markus; Uglietti, Chiara; Sturm, Patrick

2008-01-01

Atmospheric O 2 and CO 2 flask measurements from the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, and from the observatory at Puy de Dome, France, are presented. Additionally, the Jungfraujoch δ 13 C record of CO 2 is discussed. The observations on flask samples collected at the Jungfraujoch station show, since 2003, an enhancement of the oxygen trend which amounts to about 45 per meg/year with a corresponding CO 2 increase of around 2.4 ppm/year. This enhancement is comparable with that observed at the Puy de Dome station where oxygen, since mid 2002, has decreased with a rate of about 50 per meg/year whilst the CO 2 increase was of around 1.7 ppm/year but exhibiting a higher variability. Several processes influence δO 2 /N 2 . However, these processes are marked with different oxidation ratios (O 2 :CO 2 ) that can be used to distinguish them. The apparent slopes calculated from correlation plots between de-trended CO 2 and δO 2 /N 2 records as well as between corresponding trends are significantly larger than the observed terrestrial exchange and fossil fuel emission slopes indicating a strong oceanic influence. Since ocean-atmosphere exchange can have very variable O 2 :CO 2 ratios depending on processes within the ocean, it is to our understanding the only possibility to explain our observations. The stability of the δO 2 /N 2 scale is critical in this regard, therefore, it is addressed here and we found no significant scale drift which would influence our trend calculations. In our view more important are criterions on the data selection before trend analysis

Cassava Stillage Treatment by Thermophilic Anaerobic Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR)

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Gang; Xie, Li; Zou, Zhonghai; Zhou, Qi

2010-11-01

This paper assesses the performance of a thermophilic anaerobic Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) in the treatment of cassava stillage under various organic loading rates (OLRs) without suspended solids (SS) separation. The reactor was seeded with mesophilic anaerobic granular sludge, and the OLR increased by increments to 13.80 kg COD/m3/d (HRT 5d) over 80 days. Total COD removal efficiency remained stable at 90%, with biogas production at 18 L/d (60% methane). Increase in the OLR to 19.30 kg COD/m3/d (HRT 3d), however, led to a decrease in TCOD removal efficiency to 79% due to accumulation of suspended solids and incomplete degradation after shortened retention time. Reactor performance subsequently increased after OLR reduction. Alkalinity, VFA and pH levels were not significantly affected by OLR variation, indicating that no additional alkaline or pH adjustment is required. More than half of the SS in the cassava stillage could be digested in the process when HRT was 5 days, which demonstrated the suitability of anaerobic treatment of cassava stillage without SS separation.

Effects of temperature and organic loading rate on the performance and microbial community of anaerobic co-digestion of waste activated sludge and food waste.

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, Chengliu; Yang, Zhaohui; Huang, Jing; Wang, Huiling; Xu, Haiyin; Wang, Like

2014-06-01

Anaerobic co-digestion of waste activated sludge and food waste was investigated semi-continuously using continuously stirred tank reactors. Results showed that the performance of co-digestion system was distinctly influenced by temperature and organic loading rate (OLR) in terms of gas production rate (GPR), methane yield, volatile solids (VS) removal efficiency and the system stability. The highest GPR at 55 °C was 1.6 and 1.3 times higher than that at 35 and 45 °C with the OLR of 1 g VSL(-1)d(-1), and the corresponding average CH₄ yields were 0.40, 0.26 and 0.30 L CH₄ g(-1)VSadded, respectively. The thermophilic system exhibited the best load bearing capacity at extremely high OLR of 7 g VSL(-1)d(-1), while the mesophilic system showed the best process stability at low OLRs (< 5 g VSL(-1)d(-1)). Temperature had a more remarkable effect on the richness and diversity of microbial populations than the OLR. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Different organic loading rates on the biogas production during the anaerobic digestion of rice straw: A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jun; Yang, Jun; Yu, Qing; Yong, Xiaoyu; Xie, Xinxin; Zhang, Lijuan; Wei, Ping; Jia, Honghua

2017-11-01

The aim of this work was to investigate the mesophilic methane fermentation of rice straw at different organic loading rates (OLRs) in a 300m 3 bioreactor. It was found that biogas production increased when the OLR was below 2.00kg VS substrate /(m 3 ·d). The average volumetric biogas production reached 0.86m 3 /(m 3 ·d) at an OLR of 2.00kg VS substrate /(m 3 ·d). Biogas production rate was 323m 3 /t dry rice straw over the whole process. The pH, chemical oxygen demand, volatile fatty acid, and NH 4 + -N concentrations were all in optimal range at different OLRs. High-throughput sequencing analysis indicated that Firmicutes, Fibrobacteres, and Spirochaetes predominated in straw samples. Chloroflexi, Proteobacteria, and Planctomycetes were more abundant in the slurry. The hydrogenotrophic pathway was the main biochemical pathway of methanogenesis in the reactor. This study provides new information regarding the OLR and the differences in the spatial distribution of specific microbiota in a rice straw biogas plant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LOX-1 and Its Splice Variants: A New Challenge for Atherosclerosis and Cancer-Targeted Therapies

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzacasa, Barbara; Morini, Elena; Pucci, Sabina; Murdocca, Michela; Novelli, Giuseppe; Amati, Francesca

2017-01-01

Alternative splicing (AS) is a process in which precursor messenger RNA (pre-mRNA) splicing sites are differentially selected to diversify the protein isoform population. Changes in AS patterns have an essential role in normal development, differentiation and response to physiological stimuli. It is documented that AS can generate both “risk” and “protective” splice variants that can contribute to the pathogenesis of several diseases including atherosclerosis. The main endothelial receptor for oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDLs) is LOX-1 receptor protein encoded by the OLR1 gene. When OLR1 undergoes AS events, it generates three variants: OLR1, OLR1D4 and LOXIN. The latter lacks exon 5 and two-thirds of the functional domain. Literature data demonstrate a protective role of LOXIN in pathologies correlated with LOX-1 overexpression such as atherosclerosis and tumors. In this review, we summarize recent developments in understanding of OLR1 AS while also highlighting data warranting further investigation of this process as a novel therapeutic target. PMID:28146073

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

Science.gov (United States)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

The Influence of Loading Rate and Variable Temperatures on Microbial Communities in Anaerobic Digesters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J. Ciotola

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The relationship between seasonal temperatures, organic loading rate (OLR and the structure of archaeal communities in anaerobic digesters was investigated. Previous studies have often assessed archaeal community structure at fixed temperatures and constant OLRs, or at variable temperatures not characteristic of temperate climates. The goal of this study was to determine the maximum OLR that would maintain a balanced microbial ecosystem during operation in a variable temperature range expected in a temperate climate (27–10 °C. Four-liter laboratory digesters were operated in a semi-continuous mode using dairy cow manure as the feedstock. At OLRs of 1.8 and 0.8 kg VS/m3·day the digesters soured (pH < 6.5 as a result of a decrease in temperature. The structure of the archaeal community in the sour digesters became increasingly similar to the manure feedstock with gains in the relative abundance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens. At an OLR of 0.3 kg VS/m3·day the digesters did not sour, but the archaeal community was primarily hydrogenotrophic methanogens. Recommendations for operating an ambient temperature digester year round in a temperate climate are to reduce the OLR to at least 0.3 kg VS/m3·day in colder temperatures to prevent a shift to the microbial community associated with the sour digesters.

Trends in suicidal behaviour in Dutch general practice 1983–2013: a retrospective observational study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beurs, D.P. de; Hooiveld, M.; Kerkhof, A.J.F.M.; Korevaar, J.C.; Donker, G.A.

2016-01-01

Objectives To analyse trends in suicidal behaviour as reported by the Dutch sentinel general practices from 1983 to 2013. Second, to examine the relationship between suicidal behaviour and several patient characteristics. Finally, to compare the relationship between suicidal

Revealing Fact or Fiction in Spitzer Exoplanet Phase Curve Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, Jacob; Parmentier, Vivien; Mansfield, Megan; Cowan, Nicolas; Kempton, Eliza; Desert, Jean-Michel; Swain, Mark; Dang, Lisa; Bell, Taylor; Keating, Dylan; Zellem, Robert; Fortney, Jonathan; Line, Michael; Kreidberg, Laura; Stevenson, Kevin

2018-05-01

The constraints on energy transport in exoplanet atmospheres from phase curve observations is sure to be one of Spitzer's enduring legacies. However, with phase curves for 17 planets now observed we find that the previously observed trends are not coming into sharper focus. Instead, these trends in hot spot offset and day-night flux contrast vs. the fundamental planetary parameters expected to control the energy transport (e.g., irradiation and rotational period) are becoming more uncertain due to the recent discovery of outliers. At the same time, there is a growing understanding that a number of factors like magnetic fields, aerosols, and molecular chemistry could be confounding the search for these correlations. We propose a final phase curve program to advance our understanding of energy transport in transiting exoplanet atmospheres and to cement Spitzer's legacy on this topic. This program tackles the outstanding questions in this area with a comprehensive, two-pronged approach: (1) a survey of an additional 10 high signal-to-noise planets that span a broad parameter space and (2) a search for magnetic field-induced variability in the planet HAT-P-7b. The expanded survey will bring additional statistical power to the search for trends and will enable us to determine if the recently-detected outliers are indeed oddities or are instead actually representative of the intrinsic sample diversity. The variability search will test the hypothesis that the atmospheric dynamics of the partially ionized atmospheres of close-in planets are influenced by magnetic fields, which could explain the observed scatter around the existing trends. All observations will be performed at 4.5 microns, which is the consensus best channel for these measurements. The dataset from this program will provide vital context for JWST observations and will not be superseded until ARIEL flies more than a decade from now.

Persistent collective trend in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

2010-12-01

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

Ammonia threshold for inhibition of anaerobic digestion of thin stillage and the importance of organic loading rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Moestedt, Jan; Müller, Bettina; Westerholm, Maria; Schnürer, Anna

2016-03-01

Biogas production from nitrogen-rich feedstock results in release of ammonia (NH3), causing inhibition of the microbial process. The reported threshold ammonia value for stable biogas production varies greatly between studies, probably because of differences in operating conditions. Moreover, it is often difficult to separate the effect of ammonia inhibition from that of organic loading rate (OLR), as these two factors are often interrelated. This study attempted to distinguish the effects of ammonia and OLR by analysis of two laboratory-scale biogas reactors operating with thin stillage and subjected to an increase in free ammonia (from 0.30 to 1.1 g L(-1)) either by addition of an external nitrogen source (urea) or by increasing the OLR (3.2-6.0 g volatile solids L(-1) d(-1)). The results showed that ammonia concentration was detrimental for process performance, with the threshold for stability in both processes identified as being about 1 g NH3-N L(-1), irrespective of OLR. Analysis of the methanogenic community showed limited differences between the two reactors on order level and a clear increase in the abundance of Methanomicrobiales, particularly Methanoculleus sp., in response to increasing ammonia concentration. Further comprehensive molecular analysis revealed that diverse Methanoculleus species dominated in the reactors at a given ammonia level at different OLR. The acetogenic community was clearly affected by both ammonia concentration and OLR, suggesting that the volatile fatty acid load in relation to the higher OLR was important for the dynamics of this community. © 2015 The Authors. Microbial Biotechnology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Society for Applied Microbiology.

Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

East Antarctica is an order of magnitude larger than its western neighbour and the Greenland ice sheet. It has the greatest potential to contribute to sea level rise of any source, including non-glacial contributors. It is, however, the most challenging ice mass to constrain because of a range of factors including the relative paucity of in-situ observations and the poor signal to noise ratio of Earth Observation data such as satellite altimetry and gravimetry. A recent study using satellite radar and laser altimetry (Zwally et al. 2015) concluded that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) had been accumulating mass at a rate of 136±28 Gt/yr for the period 2003-08. Here, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model, which has been tested on, and applied to, the whole of Antarctica, to investigate the impact of different assumptions regarding the origin of elevation changes of the EAIS. We combined GRACE, satellite laser and radar altimeter data and GPS measurements to solve simultaneously for surface processes (primarily surface mass balance, SMB), ice dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment over the period 2003-13. The hierarchical model partitions mass trends between SMB and ice dynamics based on physical principles and measures of statistical likelihood. Without imposing the division between these processes, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +18 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +39 Gt/yr, to SMB. The total mass trend for that period for the EAIS was 57±20 Gt/yr. Over the period 2003-08, we obtain an ice dynamic trend of 12 Gt/yr and a SMB trend of 15 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 27 Gt/yr. We then imposed the condition that the surface mass balance is tightly constrained by the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and allowed height changes due to ice dynamics to occur in areas of low surface velocities (solution that satisfies all the input data, given these constraints. By imposing these conditions, over the period 2003-13 we obtained a mass

Detectability of migrating raptors and its effect on bias and precision of trend estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric G. Nolte

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Annual counts of migrating raptors at fixed observation points are a widespread practice, and changes in numbers counted over time, adjusted for survey effort, are commonly used as indices of trends in population size. Unmodeled year-to-year variation in detectability may introduce bias, reduce precision of trend estimates, and reduce power to detect trends. We conducted dependent double-observer surveys at the annual fall raptor migration count at Lucky Peak, Idaho, in 2009 and 2010 and applied Huggins closed-capture removal models and information-theoretic model selection to determine the relative importance of factors affecting detectability. The most parsimonious model included effects of observer team identity, distance, species, and day of the season. We then simulated 30 years of counts with heterogeneous individual detectability, a population decline (λ = 0.964, and unexplained random variation in the number of available birds. Imperfect detectability did not bias trend estimation, and increased the time required to achieve 80% power by less than 11%. Results suggested that availability is a greater source of variance in annual counts than detectability; thus, efforts to account for availability would improve the monitoring value of migration counts. According to our models, long-term trends in observer efficiency or migratory flight distance may introduce substantial bias to trend estimates. Estimating detectability with a novel count protocol like our double-observer method is just one potential means of controlling such effects. The traditional approach of modeling the effects of covariates and adjusting the index may also be effective if ancillary data is collected consistently.

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃ during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

Trend analysis in the nuclear maintenance industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruemeli, W.A.

1986-01-01

The maintenance of nuclear facilities is a demanding, ongoing activity which requires the same level of quality as new construction. Heretofore, many owners and contractors have relied on ''gut feel'' to determine whether maintenance quality was improving or not. However, trend analysis now is becoming a key factor in monitoring plant activities to ensure quality. Literature abounds with descriptions of computerized systems for collecting and sorting data. Even the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has concurred, with its endorsement of trend analysis of construction indicators in NUREG 1055 (Ford Amendment Study). Stearns Catalytic has developed a unique system of tend analyses for nuclear plant activities. Aside from its intended purpose of determining the quality trends in maintenance activities, the program also supplies substantial quantitative data for control and management of the quality activities. Trend analysis is a time series analysis of a set of observations arranged in chronological order. The important aspect is the time basis, specifically the analysis of quality indicators over successive periods of time. Many program elements, including surveillances, nonconformances, inspections, and audits, are designed to look at quality indications

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Surface ozone and carbon monoxide levels observed at Oki, Japan: regional air pollution trends in East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sikder, Helena Akhter; Suthawaree, Jeeranut; Kato, Shungo; Kajii, Yoshizumi

2011-03-01

Simultaneous ground-based measurements of ozone and carbon monoxide were performed at Oki, Japan, from January 2001 to September 2002 in order to investigate the O(3) and CO characteristics and their distributions. The observations revealed that O(3) and CO concentrations were maximum in springtime and minimum in the summer. The monthly averaged concentrations of O(3) and CO were 60 and 234 ppb in spring and 23 and 106 ppb in summer, respectively. Based on direction, 5-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis was carried out to determine the transport path of air masses, preceding their arrival at Oki. Comparison between classified results from present work and results from the year 1994-1996 was carried out. The O(3) and CO concentration results of classified air masses in our analysis show similar concentration trends to previous findings; highest in the WNW/W, lowest in N/NE and medium levels in NW. Moreover, O(3) levels are higher and CO levels are lower in the present study in all categories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

Science.gov (United States)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Abul-basher, M M

1985-01-01

Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

Operation of a two-stage continuous fermentation process producing hydrogen and methane from artificial food wastes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagai, Kohki; Mizuno, Shiho; Umeda, Yoshito; Sakka, Makiko [Toho Gas Co., Ltd. (Japan); Osaka, Noriko [Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. (Japan); Sakka, Kazuo [Mie Univ. (Japan)

2010-07-01

An anaerobic two-stage continuous fermentation process with combined thermophilic hydrogenogenic and methanogenic stages (two-stage fermentation process) was applied to artificial food wastes on a laboratory scale. In this report, organic loading rate (OLR) conditions for hydrogen fermentation were optimized before operating the two-stage fermentation process. The OLR was set at 11.2, 24.3, 35.2, 45.6, 56.1, and 67.3 g-COD{sub cr} L{sup -1} day{sup -1} with a temperature of 60 C, pH5.5 and 5.0% total solids. As a result, approximately 1.8-2.0 mol-H{sub 2} mol-hexose{sup -1} was obtained at the OLR of 11.2-56.1 g-COD{sub cr} L{sup -1} day{sup -1}. In contrast, it was inferred that the hydrogen yield at the OLR of 67.3 g-COD{sub cr} L{sup -1} day{sup -1} decreased because of an increase in lactate concentration in the culture medium. The performance of the two-stage fermentation process was also evaluated over three months. The hydraulic retention time (HRT) of methane fermentation was able to be shortened 5.0 days (under OLR 12.4 g-COD{sub cr} L{sup -1} day{sup -1} conditions) when the OLR of hydrogen fermentation was 44.0 g-COD{sub cr} L{sup -1} day{sup -1}, and the average gasification efficiency of the two-stage fermentation process was 81% at the time. (orig.)

Simultaneous Biohydrogen and Bioethanol Production from Anaerobic Fermentation with Immobilized Sludge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Han

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The effects of organic loading rates (OLRs on fermentative productions of hydrogen and ethanol were investigated in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR with attached sludge using molasses as substrate. The CSTR reactor with attached sludge was operated under different OLRs, ranging from 8 to 24 kg/m3·d. The H2 and ethanol production rate essentially increased with increasing OLR. The highest H2 production rate (10.74 mmol/h⋅L and ethanol production rate (11.72 mmol/h⋅L were obtained both operating at OLR = 24 kg/m3·d. Linear regression results show that ethanol production rate ( and H2 production rate ( were proportionately correlated and can be expressed as =1.5365−5.054 (2=0.9751. The best energy generation rate was 19.08 kJ/h⋅L, which occurred at OLR = 24 kg/m3·d. In addition, the hydrogen yield was affected by the presence of ethanol and acetic acid in the liquid phase, and the maximum hydrogen production rate occurred while the ratio of ethanol to acetic acid was close to 1.

Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holand, P

1996-02-01

The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

Are trends in billing for high-intensity emergency care explained by changes in services provided in the emergency department? An observational study among US Medicare beneficiaries

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Laura G; Wild, Robert C; Orav, E John; Hsia, Renee Y

2018-01-01

Objective There has been concern that an increase in billing for high-intensity emergency care is due to changes in coding practices facilitated by electronic health records. We sought to characterise the trends in billing for high-intensity emergency care among Medicare beneficiaries and to examine the degree to which trends in high-intensity billing are explained by changes in patient characteristics and services provided in the emergency department (ED). Design, setting and participants Observational study using traditional Medicare claims to identify ED visits at non-federal acute care hospitals for elderly beneficiaries in 2006, 2009 and 2012. Outcomes measures Billing intensity was defined by emergency physician evaluation and management (E&M) codes. We tested for overall trends in high-intensity billing (E&M codes 99285, 99291 and 99292) and in services provided over time using linear regression models, adjusting for patient characteristics. Additionally, we tested for time trends in rates of admission to the hospital and to the intensive care unit (ICU). Next, we classified outpatient visits into 39 diagnosis categories and analysed the change in proportion of high-intensity visits versus the change in number of services. Finally, we quantified the extent to which trends in high-intensity billing are explained by changes in patient demographics and services provided in the ED using multivariable modelling. Results High-intensity visits grew from 45.8% of 671 103 visits in 2006 to 57.8% of 629 010 visits in 2012 (2.0% absolute increase per year; 95% CI 1.97% to 2.03%) as did the mean number of services provided for admitted (1.28 to 1.41; +0.02 increase in procedures per year; 95% CI 0.018 to 0.021) and discharged ED patients (7.1 to 8.6; +0.25 increase in services per year; 95% CI 0.245 to 0.255). There was a reduction in hospital admission rate from 40.1% to 35.9% (−0.68% per year; 95% CI −0.71% to −0.65%; Pbilled as high intensity

Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

2015-10-01

To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Do rats have orgasms?

Science.gov (United States)

Pfaus, James G.; Scardochio, Tina; Parada, Mayte; Gerson, Christine; Quintana, Gonzalo R.; Coria-Avila, Genaro A.

2016-01-01

Background Although humans experience orgasms with a degree of statistical regularity, they remain among the most enigmatic of sexual responses; difficult to define and even more difficult to study empirically. The question of whether animals experience orgasms is hampered by similar lack of definition and the additional necessity of making inferences from behavioral responses. Method Here we define three behavioral criteria, based on dimensions of the subjective experience of human orgasms described by Mah and Binik, to infer orgasm-like responses (OLRs) in other species: 1) physiological criteria that include pelvic floor and anal muscle contractions that stimulate seminal emission and/or ejaculation in the male, or that stimulate uterine and cervical contractions in the female; 2) short-term behavioral changes that reflect immediate awareness of a pleasurable hedonic reward state during copulation; and 3) long-term behavioral changes that depend on the reward state induced by the OLR, including sexual satiety, the strengthening of patterns of sexual arousal and desire in subsequent copulations, and the generation of conditioned place and partner preferences for contextual and partner-related cues associated with the reward state. We then examine whether physiological and behavioral data from observations of male and female rats during copulation, and in sexually-conditioned place- and partner-preference paradigms, are consistent with these criteria. Results Both male and female rats display behavioral patterns consistent with OLRs. Conclusions The ability to infer OLRs in rats offers new possibilities to study the phenomenon in neurobiological and molecular detail, and to provide both comparative and translational perspectives that would be useful for both basic and clinical research. PMID:27799081

Co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sludge to increase biogas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marañón, E.; Castrillón, L.; Quiroga, G.; Fernández-Nava, Y.; Gómez, L.; García, M.M.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Small increase in methane production was observed applying sonication pretreatment. ► Biogas productions between 720 and 1100 mL/Lreactor day were achieved. ► Volatile solids removal efficiencies ranged between 53% and 60%. ► Lower methane yields were obtained when operating under thermophilic conditions. ► Optimum OLR in lab-scale CSTR was 1.2–1.3 g VS/L day (HRT: 20 days). - Abstract: Anaerobic co-digestion strategies are needed to enhance biogas production, especially when treating certain residues such as cattle/pig manure. This paper presents a study of co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sewage sludge. With the aim of maximising biogas yields, a series of experiments were carried out under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions using continuously stirred-tank reactors, operating at different hydraulic residence times. Pretreatment with ultrasound was also applied to compare the results with those obtained with non-pretreated waste. Specific methane production decreases when increasing the OLR and decreasing HRT. The maximum value obtained was 603 LCH 4 /kg VS feed for the co-digestion of a mixture of 70% manure, 20% food waste and 10% sewage sludge (total solid concentration around 4%) at 36 °C, for an OLR of 1.2 g VS/L day. Increasing the OLR to 1.5 g VS/L day led to a decrease of around 20–28% in SMP. Lower methane yields were obtained when operating at 55 °C. The increase in methane production when applying ultrasound to the feed mixtures does not compensate for the energy spent in this pretreatment.

Do rats have orgasms?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James G. Pfaus

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Although humans experience orgasms with a degree of statistical regularity, they remain among the most enigmatic of sexual responses; difficult to define and even more difficult to study empirically. The question of whether animals experience orgasms is hampered by similar lack of definition and the additional necessity of making inferences from behavioral responses. Method: Here we define three behavioral criteria, based on dimensions of the subjective experience of human orgasms described by Mah and Binik, to infer orgasm-like responses (OLRs in other species: 1 physiological criteria that include pelvic floor and anal muscle contractions that stimulate seminal emission and/or ejaculation in the male, or that stimulate uterine and cervical contractions in the female; 2 short-term behavioral changes that reflect immediate awareness of a pleasurable hedonic reward state during copulation; and 3 long-term behavioral changes that depend on the reward state induced by the OLR, including sexual satiety, the strengthening of patterns of sexual arousal and desire in subsequent copulations, and the generation of conditioned place and partner preferences for contextual and partner-related cues associated with the reward state. We then examine whether physiological and behavioral data from observations of male and female rats during copulation, and in sexually-conditioned place- and partner-preference paradigms, are consistent with these criteria. Results: Both male and female rats display behavioral patterns consistent with OLRs. Conclusions: The ability to infer OLRs in rats offers new possibilities to study the phenomenon in neurobiological and molecular detail, and to provide both comparative and translational perspectives that would be useful for both basic and clinical research.

Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

Science.gov (United States)

Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

2014-08-01

Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Zeleňáková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi. Bian

2018-01-01

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

Climate Trends and Impacts in China

OpenAIRE

Chris Sall

2013-01-01

This discussion paper summarizes observed and projected trends in extreme weather events, present-day climate variability, and future climate change and their impacts on China's different regions. Findings are presented from China's national assessment report on climate change (2007) and second national assessment report on climate change (2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and inte...

Changing trends in diabetes mellitus in pregnancy.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Khalifeh, A

2014-02-01

The purpose of this study was to identify any changing trends in the incidence and caesarean section (CS) rate of pre-gestational diabetes mellitus (DM) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) over a 10- year period, between 1999 and 2008. Although the incidence of pre-gestational DM has not significantly changed over the course of the last 10 years, there is an obvious rising trend in the incidence of GDM. Despite an increase in the overall CS rate during this time period, a parallel increase in the CS rate has not been observed among women whose pregnancies are complicated either by gestational or by pre-gestational diabetes (PGD).

Extraction of antioxidants from olive mill wastewater and electro-coagulation of exhausted fraction to reduce its toxicity on anaerobic digestion.

Science.gov (United States)

Khoufi, Sonia; Aloui, Fathi; Sayadi, Sami

2008-03-01

Liquid-liquid extraction was used in order to recover phenolic compounds from centrifuged olive mill wastewater (OMW), a polluting by-product of olive oil production process, and to reduce their toxicity for a subsequent aerobic or anaerobic digestion. Phenolic compounds were identified in untreated and treated OMW by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The experimental results of ethyl acetate extraction showed that the monomers recovery efficiency was over 90%. This pre-treatment resulted in the removal of the major LMM phenolic compounds and a small part of HMM polyphenols. The aerobic treatment of the exhausted OMW fraction removed 78.7% of the soluble COD. In the case of anaerobic digestion at OLR ranged from 1 to 3.5 gCOD l(-1)day(-1), methanisation process exhibited high methane yield as 0.3 l CH4 produced per g COD introduced and high COD removal (80%). However, a disruption of the process was observed when the OLR was increased to 4.5 gCODl(-1)day(-1). A pre-treatment by electro-coagulation resulted in decreasing the toxicity and enhancing the performance of methanisation operated at higher OLR from 4 to 7.5 gCODl(-1)day(-1).

The sequencing batch reactor as an excellent configuration to treat wastewater from the petrochemical industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Caluwé, Michel; Daens, Dominique; Blust, Ronny; Geuens, Luc; Dries, Jan

2017-02-01

In the present study, the influence of a changing feeding pattern from continuous to pulse feeding on the characteristics of activated sludge was investigated with a wastewater from the petrochemical industry from the harbour of Antwerp. Continuous seed sludge, adapted to the industrial wastewater, was used to start up three laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactors. After an adaptation period from the shift to pulse feeding, the effect of an increasing organic loading rate (OLR) and volume exchange ratio (VER) were investigated one after another. Remarkable changes of the specific oxygen uptake rate (sOUR), microscopic structure, sludge volume index (SVI), SVI 30 /SVI 5 ratio, and settling rate were observed during adaptation. sOUR increased two to five times and treatment time decreased 43.9% in 15 days. Stabilization of the SVI occurred after a period of 20 days and improved significantly from 300 mL·g -1 to 80 mL·g -1 . Triplication of the OLR and VER had no negative influence on sludge settling and effluent quality. Adaptation time of the microorganisms to a new feeding pattern, OLR and VER was relatively short and sludge characteristics related to aerobic granular sludge were obtained. This study indicates significant potential of the batch activated sludge system for the treatment of this industrial petrochemical wastewater.

Low-temperature (10°C) anaerobic digestion of dilute dairy wastewater in an EGSB bioreactor: microbial community structure, population dynamics, and kinetics of methanogenic populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialek, Katarzyna; Cysneiros, Denise; O'Flaherty, Vincent

2013-01-01

The feasibility of anaerobic digestion of dairy wastewater at 10°C was investigated in a high height : diameter ratio EGSB reactor. Stable performance was observed at an applied organic loading rate (OLR) of 0.5-2 kg COD m(-3) d(-1) with chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiencies above 85%. When applied OLR increased to values above 2 kg COD m(-3) d(-1), biotreatment efficiency deteriorated, with methanogenesis being the rate-limiting step. The bioreactor recovered quickly (3 days) after reduction of the OLR. qPCR results showed a reduction in the abundance of hydrogenotrophic methanogenic Methanomicrobiales and Methanobacteriales throughout the steady state period followed by a sharp increase in their numbers (111-fold) after the load shock. Specific methanogenic activity and maximum substrate utilising rate (A(max)) of the biomass at the end of trial indicated increased activity and preference towards hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, which correlated well with the increased abundance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens. Acetoclastic Methanosaeta spp. remained at stable levels throughout the trial. However, increased apparent half-saturation constant (K(m)) at the end of the trial indicated a decrease in the specific substrate affinity for acetate of the sludge, suggesting that Methanosaeta spp., which have high substrate affinity, started to be outcompeted in the reactor.

Effects of organic loading rates on reactor performance and microbial community changes during thermophilic aerobic digestion process of high-strength food wastewater.

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Hyun Min; Lee, Jae Won; Ha, Jeong Hyub; Park, Jong Moon

2013-11-01

To evaluate the applicability of single-stage thermophilic aerobic digestion (TAD) process treating high-strength food wastewater (FWW), TAD process was operated at four organic loading rates (OLRs) from 9.2 to 37.2 kg COD/m(3)d. The effects of OLRs on microbial community changes were also examined. The highest volumetric removal rate (13.3 kg COD/m(3)d) and the highest thermo-stable protease activity (0.95 unit/mL) were detected at OLR=18.6 kg COD/m(3)d. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) profiles and quantitative PCR (qPCR) results showed significant microbial community shifts in response to changes in OLR. In particular, DGGE and phylogenetic analysis demonstrate that the presence of Bacillus sp. (phylum of Firmicutes) was strongly correlated with efficient removal of organic particulates from high-strength food wastewater. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

Observations of Equatorial Kelvin Wave Modes in FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS RO Temperature Profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Potula Sree Brahmanandam

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we analyze FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C GPS radio occultation (RO derived temperature components for the period September 2006 to February 2008. Results show the presence of slow Kelvin waves (wave period > 10 days with higher zonal wavenumbers (either one or two in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. The vertical wavelengths of these waves are found to be in the range of 5 - 12 km. The predominant Kelvin waves observed in the temperature fluctuations are in the altitude range between 15 and 28 km and centered on the tropical tropopause. The downward phase progression of these waves suggests that the derived waves are propagating upward, with the source region located at lower altitudes possibly due to tropical convective heating. The zonal winds retrieved using radiosonde observations over Singapore (1¢XN, 104¢XE during this period show a periodicity of ~24 - 26 months in the stratosphere, and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO characteristics with eastward zonal winds from March 2006 to May 2007 and westward winds from June 2007 to July 2008 respectively. Our results further show that the Kelvin wave characteristics are enhanced during the westward phase of QBO and diminish during the eastward phase, in line with the previous reported results. Furthermore, an examination of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR data shows that deep convection activity is developed episodically over the Indonesian archipelago during the observation period, thereby indicating that the Kelvin wave events observed in temperature fluctuations are either driven by convective activity (convectively coupled waves or by a broad spectrum of convective variability (free waves over the Indonesian region.

Vibrational spectra and ab initio analysis of tert-butyl, trimethylsilyl, and trimethylgermyl derivatives of 3,3-dimethylcyclopropene . VI: Application of observed trends to stannyl derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Panchenko, Yu. N.; De Maré, G. R.; Abramenkov, A. V.; Baird, M. S.; Tverezovsky, V. V.; Nizovtsev, A. V.; Bolesov, I. G.

2004-09-01

The effects of substitution of X=C by Si or Ge in X(CH 3) 3 moieties attached to the formal double bond of 3,3-dimethylcyclopropene are examined. Regularities in observed trends of vibrational frequencies implicating the moieties containing the X atom, as the X atomic mass is increased, are extrapolated to X=Sn. The results of this extrapolation made it possible to assign the known experimental vibrational frequencies of 3,3-dimethyl-1-(trimethylstannyl)cyclopropene and 3,3-dimethyl-1,2-bis(trimethylstannyl)cyclopropene.

Working Group 1: Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trenberth, K.; Angell, J.; Barry, R.; Bradley, R.; Diaz, H.; Elliott, W.; Etkins, R.; Folland, C.; Jenne, R.; Jones, P.; Karl, T.; Levitus, S.; Oort, A.; Parker, D.; Ropelewski, C.; Vinnikov, K.; Wigley, T.

1991-01-01

Topics of discussion include the following: the need for observations; issues in establishing global climate trends; climate variables such as surface air temperature over land, marine temperature, precipitation, circulation, upper air measurements, historical observations, subsurface ocean data, sea level, cryosphere, clouds, solar radiation, and aerosols; future considerations and recommendations which focuses on the establishment of a global benchmark climate monitoring network and data management

Working Group 1: Observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trenberth, K.; Angell, J.; Barry, R.; Bradley, R.; Diaz, H.; Elliott, W.; Etkins, R.; Folland, C.; Jenne, R.; Jones, P.; Karl, T.; Levitus, S.; Oort, A.; Parker, D.; Ropelewski, C.; Vinnikov, K.; Wigley, T.

1990-01-01

Topics of discussion include the following: the need for observations; issues in establishing global climate trends; climate variables such as surface air temperature over land, marine temperature, precipitation, circulation, upper air measurements, historical observations, subsurface ocean data, sea level, cryosphere, clouds, solar radiation, and aerosols; future considerations and recommendations which focuses on the establishment of a global benchmark climate monitoring network and data management

Is climate change intensifying the drying-trend in the Caribbean?

Science.gov (United States)

Herrera, D. A.; Ault, T.; Fasullo, J.; Carrillo, C. M.

2017-12-01

Since 1950, the Caribbean (11ºN-25ºN; 85ºW-60ºW) has seen a significant drying trend characterized by several recent droughts, some of them contemporaneous with El Niño events. Moreover, the most recent drought from 2013 to 2016 was both the most severe and widespread event since at least 1950, and was associated with high temperatures, likely driven in part by climate change. This work examines the role of increased evaporative demand resulting from warmer temperatures on the drying trend observed in the Caribbean since 1950, using observations and model simulations. Large-scale dynamics associated with drought are also analyzed using sea surface temperature, geopotential height, wind, and precipitation anomalies, as well as radiative fluxes anomalies. Furthermore, land surface model soil moisture and high-resolution self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) datasets are used to quantify drought severity at local scales. The anthropogenic contribution to drought severity is estimated as the difference between the scPDSI calculated using linearly-detrended temperatures, and the scPDSI computed with the observed trend, with unadjusted precipitation, net radiation, and wind speed. Soil moisture anomalies driven by climate change are derived by comparing a large ensemble of forced simulations against a pre-industrial control. The resulting analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing has intensified the drying trend in the Caribbean by -0.4 scPDSI-units over 60 years, and has increased the dry-land area by 10%. These findings are consistent with observed potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies, which are 30% higher than PET-anomalies estimated using detrended temperatures. These results suggest that climate change is already increasing the risk of drought in the Caribbean by enhancing the atmospheric demand of moisture through temperature, and provide insights into the role of climate change in future drought risk in the region.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004–2014: a multi-exponential approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pandolfi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background, located in the northeast (NE of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004–2014 were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann–Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10 showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN and Montseny (MSY during 2004–2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V–Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic and from the industrial (metallurgy

Simultaneous Biohydrogen and Bioethanol Production from Anaerobic Fermentation with Immobilized Sludge

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wei; Wang, Zhanqing; Chen, Hong; Yao, Xin; Li, Yongfeng

2011-01-01

The effects of organic loading rates (OLRs) on fermentative productions of hydrogen and ethanol were investigated in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with attached sludge using molasses as substrate. The CSTR reactor with attached sludge was operated under different OLRs, ranging from 8 to 24 kg/m3·d. The H2 and ethanol production rate essentially increased with increasing OLR. The highest H2 production rate (10.74 mmol/h·L) and ethanol production rate (11.72 mmol/h·L) were obtained both operating at OLR = 24 kg/m3·d. Linear regression results show that ethanol production rate (y) and H2 production rate (x) were proportionately correlated and can be expressed as y = 1.5365x − 5.054 (r2 = 0.9751). The best energy generation rate was 19.08 kJ/h·L, which occurred at OLR = 24 kg/m3·d. In addition, the hydrogen yield was affected by the presence of ethanol and acetic acid in the liquid phase, and the maximum hydrogen production rate occurred while the ratio of ethanol to acetic acid was close to 1. PMID:21799660

Anaerobic treatment of wastewater with high suspended solids from a bulk drug industry using fixed film reactor (AFFR).

Science.gov (United States)

Gangagni Rao, A; Venkata Naidu, G; Krishna Prasad, K; Chandrasekhar Rao, N; Venkata Mohan, S; Jetty, Annapurna; Sarma, P N

2005-01-01

Studies were carried out on the treatment of wastewater from a bulk drug industry using an anaerobic fixed film reactor (AFFR) designed and fabricated in the laboratory. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total dissolved solids (TDS) of the wastewater were found to be very high with low biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to COD ratio and high total suspended solid (TSS) concentration. Acclimatization of seed consortia and startup of the reactor was carried out by directly using the wastewater, which resulted in reducing the period of startup to 30 days. The reactor was studied at different organic loading rates (OLR) and it was found that the optimum OLR was 10 kg COD/m(3)/day. The wastewater under investigation, which had a considerable quantity of SS, was treated anaerobically without any pretreatment. COD and BOD of the reactor outlet wastewater were monitored and at steady state and optimum OLR 60-70% of COD and 80-90% of BOD were removed. The reactor was subjected to organic shock loads at two different OLR and the reaction could withstand the shocks and performance could be restored to normalcy at that OLR. The results obtained indicated that AFFR could be used efficiently for the treatment of wastewater from a bulk drug industry having high COD, TDS and TSS.

Evidence for acid-precipitation-induced trends in stream chemistry at hydrologic bench-mark stations

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard A.; Alexander, Richard B.

1983-01-01

Ten- to 15-year water-quality records from a network of headwater sampling stations show small declines in stream sulfate concentrations at stations in the northeastern quarter of the Nation and small increases in sulfate at most southeastern and western sites. The regional pattern of stream sulfate trends is similar to that reported for trends in S02 emissions to the atmosphere during the same period. Trends in the ratio of alkalinity to total major cation concentrations at the stations follow an inverse pattern of small increases in the Northeast and small, but widespread decreases elsewhere. The undeveloped nature of the sampled basins and the magnitude and direction of observed changes in relation to SO2 emissions support the hypothesis that the observed patterns in water quality trends reflect regional changes in the rates of acid deposition.

Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

1996-01-01

Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

Long-term trends in foF2: their estimating and origin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Wan

2008-03-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with two problems, methods of foF2 trend determination and origin of trends in foF2, both being controversial in current literature. We found that various regression-based methods and artificial neural network-based method of Yue et al. (2006 provided comparable results within uncertainties caused mainly by various ways of removing/suppressing the dominant solar cycle effect. The role of geomagnetic activity in the observed trends in foF2 was probably substantial and might be still even rather dominant in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Multidecadal trends in the duration of wet spells and associated intensity of precipitation as revealed by a very dense observational German network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zolina, Olga

2014-01-01

Precipitation durations and intensities over the period 1950–2008 are analysed using daily rain gauge data from the Deutsche Wetterdienst raingauge network—one of the densest and most properly maintained precipitation observational networks in Europe. Truncated geometric distribution of the family of discrete distributions was applied for quantifying probability distribution of the durations of wet spells. Further intensities of wet spells of different durations were analysed along with wet spell lengths. During the cold season (October–March) wet periods over the whole of Germany demonstrate a robust pattern of lengthening by about 2–3% for the mean durations of wet spells and up to 6% for extremely long wet periods. This tendency is clearly associated with growing (up to 10% per decade in Eastern Germany) intensity of precipitation during long wet periods (more than 5 days) and the weakening of precipitation events associated with short and moderately long wet periods with both signals being statistically significant. Trends are superimposed with interdecadal variability, which is the strongest in Northern and Central Germany. In the warm season (April–September) there is no robust pan-German trend pattern in the wet spell durations and associated precipitation intensities. Strong structural changes in winter precipitation over Germany potentially imply growing rates of winter ground water recharge over Germany and increasing probability of winter flash and river flooding. (paper)

Batch and semi-continuous anaerobic co-digestion of goose manure with alkali solubilized wheat straw: A case of carbon to nitrogen ratio and organic loading rate regression optimization.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Muhammad; Ding, Weimin; Umar, Muhammad; Rasool, Ghulam

2017-04-01

The present study focused on carbon to nitrogen ratio (C/N) and organic loading rate (OLR) optimization of goose manure (GM) and wheat straw (WS). Dealing the anaerobic digestion of poultry manure on industrial scale; the question of optimum C/N (mixing ratio) and OLR (daily feeding concentration) have significant importance still lack in literature. Therefore, Batch and CSTR co-digestion experiments of the GM and WS were carried out at mesophilic condition. The alkali (NaOH) solubilization pretreatment for the WS had greatly enhanced its anaerobic digestibility. The highest methane production was evaluated between the C/N of 20-30 during Batch experimentation while for CSTRs; the second applied OLR of (3g.VS/L.d) was proved as the optimum with maximum methane production capability of 254.65ml/g.VS for reactor B at C/N of 25. The C/N and OLR regression optimization models were developed for their commercial scale usefulness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of organic loading rate on methane production in a CSTR from physicochemical sludge generated in a poultry slaughterhouse.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Escobar, Luis A; Martínez-Hernández, Sergio; Corte-Cano, Grisel; Méndez-Contreras, Juan M

2014-01-01

The influence of the increase of the organic loading rate (OLR) on methane production in a continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) from physicochemical sludge generated in a poultry slaughterhouse was evaluated. Total solid (TS) to obtain OLR of 1, 5, 10 and 15 g VS L(-1) day(-1), with hydraulic retention times of 29, 6, 6 and 4, respectively, were conditioned. The results showed a decrease in pH levels and an increase in the theoretical volatile fatty acids (VFA). While the yield of methane production decreased from 0.48 to 0.10 LCH4/g VSremoved, respectively, the OLR-10 managed on average 38% removal of volatile solids (VS) and a yield biogas production of 0.81 Lbiogas g(-1) VSremoved and 1.35 L day(-1). This suggests that the OLR increases in an anaerobic system from physicochemical sludge only inhibits the methanogenic metabolism, because there is still substrate consumption and biogas production.

Improving the performance of an aerobic membrane bioreactor (MBR) treating pharmaceutical wastewater with powdered activated carbon (PAC) addition.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaya, Yasemin; Bacaksiz, A Murat; Golebatmaz, Ugur; Vergili, Ilda; Gönder, Z Beril; Yilmaz, Gulsum

2016-04-01

In this study, the effects of organic loading rate (OLR) and the addition of powdered activated carbon (PAC) on the performance and membrane fouling of MBR were conducted to treat real pharmaceutical process wastewater. Over 145 days of operation, the MBR system was operated at OLRs ranging from 1 to 2 kg COD m(-3) day(-1) without sludge wasting. The addition of PAC provided an improvement in the flux, despite an increase in the OLR:PAC ratio. The results demonstrated that the hybrid PAC-MBR system maintained a reduced amount of membrane fouling and steadily increased the removal performance of etodolac. PAC addition reduced the deposition of extracellular polymeric substance and organic matter on the membrane surface and resulted an increase in COD removal even at higher OLRs with low PAC addition. Membrane fouling mechanisms were investigated using combined adsorption fouling models. Modified fouling index values and normalized mass transfer coefficient values indicated that predominant fouling mechanism was cake adsorption.

Probabilistic Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States at Vienna International Airport During Cold Season

Science.gov (United States)

Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian J.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

2018-04-01

Airport operations are sensitive to visibility conditions. Low-visibility events may lead to capacity reduction, delays and economic losses. Different levels of low-visibility procedures (lvp) are enacted to ensure aviation safety. A nowcast of the probabilities for each of the lvp categories helps decision makers to optimally schedule their operations. An ordered logistic regression (OLR) model is used to forecast these probabilities directly. It is applied to cold season forecasts at Vienna International Airport for lead times of 30-min out to 2 h. Model inputs are standard meteorological measurements. The skill of the forecasts is accessed by the ranked probability score. OLR outperforms persistence, which is a strong contender at the shortest lead times. The ranked probability score of the OLR is even better than the one of nowcasts from human forecasters. The OLR-based nowcasting system is computationally fast and can be updated instantaneously when new data become available.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AND CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orbita Roswintiarti

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the quantitative estimates of the effect of large-scale circulations on the sea surface temperature (SST-tropical convection relationship and the effect of SST on the large-scale circulation-convection relationship over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans are presented. Although convection tends to maximize at warm SSTs, increased deep convection is also determined by the divergence (DIV associated with large-scale circulation. An analysis of the relationship between SST and deep convection shows that under subsidence and clear conditions, there is a decrease in convection or increase in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR at a maximum rate of 3.4 Wm-2 °C-1. In the SST range of 25°C to 29.5°C, a large increase in deep convection (decrease in OLR occurs in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The OLR reduction is found to be a strong function of the large-scale circulation in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Under a weak large-scale circulation, the rate of OLR reduction is about    -3.5 Wm-2 °C-1 to -8.1 Wm-2 °C-1. Under the influence of strong rising motions, the rate can increase to about -12.5 Wm-2 °C-1 for the same SST range. The overall relationship between large-scale circulation and deep convection is nearly linear. A maximum rate of OLR reduction with respect to DIV is -6.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1 in the western Pacific Ocean. It is also found that the DIV-OLR relationship is less dependent on SST. For example, the rate of OLR reduction over the western Pacific Ocean for 26°C < SST £ 27°C is -4.2 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1, while that for 28°C < SST £ 29°C is  -5.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1. These results are expected to have a great importance for climate feedback mechanisms associated with clouds and SST and for climate predictability.

Pilot-scale anaerobic co-digestion of municipal biomass waste and waste activated sludge in China: Effect of organic loading rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiao; Wang Wei; Shi Yunchun; Zheng Lei; Gao Xingbao; Qiao Wei; Zhou Yingjun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Co-digestion of municipal biomass waste (MBW) and waste activated sludge (WAS) was examined on a pilot-scale reactor. ► System performance and stability under OLR of 1.2, 2.4, 3.6, 4.8, 6.0 and 8.0 kg VS (m 3 d) −1 were analyzed. ► A maximum methane production rate of 2.94 m 3 (m 3 d) −1 was achieved at OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m 3 d) −1 and HRT of 15d. ► With the increasing OLRs, pH values, VS removal rate and methane concentration decreased and VFA increased. ► The changing of biogas production rate can be a practical approach to monitor and control anaerobic digestion system. - Abstract: The effects of organic loading rate on the performance and stability of anaerobic co-digestion of municipal biomass waste (MBW) and waste activated sludge (WAS) were investigated on a pilot-scale reactor. The results showed that stable operation was achieved with organic loading rates (OLR) of 1.2–8.0 kg volatile solid (VS) (m 3 d) −1 , with VS reduction rates of 61.7–69.9%, and volumetric biogas production of 0.89–5.28 m 3 (m 3 d) −1 . A maximum methane production rate of 2.94 m 3 (m 3 d) −1 was achieved at OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m 3 d) −1 and hydraulic retention time of 15 days. With increasing OLRs, the anaerobic reactor showed a decrease in VS removal rate, average pH value and methane concentration, and a increase of volatile fatty acid concentration. By monitoring the biogas production rate (BPR), the anaerobic digestion system has a higher acidification risk under an OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m 3 d) −1 . This result remarks the possibility of relating bioreactor performance with BPR in order to better understand and monitor anaerobic digestion process.

Earth Observations for Global Water Security

Science.gov (United States)

Lawford, Richard; Strauch, Adrian; Toll, David; Fekete, Balazs; Cripe, Douglas

2013-01-01

The combined effects of population growth, increasing demands for water to support agriculture, energy security, and industrial expansion, and the challenges of climate change give rise to an urgent need to carefully monitor and assess trends and variations in water resources. Doing so will ensure that sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe and useable water will serve as a foundation for water security. Both satellite and in situ observations combined with data assimilation and models are needed for effective, integrated monitoring of the water cycle's trends and variability in terms of both quantity and quality. On the basis of a review of existing observational systems, we argue that a new integrated monitoring capability for water security purposes is urgently needed. Furthermore, the components for this capability exist and could be integrated through the cooperation of national observational programmes. The Group on Earth Observations should play a central role in the design, implementation, management and analysis of this system and its products.

Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2012-11-15

In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

2013-05-01

One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Trend of tuberculosis cases under directly observed treatment, short-course strategy in Tabriz, Iran, from 2001 to 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhila Khamnian

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The universal target under the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs is to reduce the worldwide burden of tuberculosis (TB 2015, and we wanted to evaluate development in TB control by assessment of the time trend in incidence and death rate in Tabriz, Iran. Methods: This was a retrospective trend analysis of the data have been recorded in East Azerbaijan State TB center during 10 years. Data were related to patients have been registered for treatment under the directly observed treatment, short-course (DOTS strategy from 2001 to 2011. Results: In total, 3283 TB patients were treated under DOTS strategy during 2001-2011. Males constituted 55.0% of subjects. The risk was the highest among the productive age group (15-44 years. About 61.0% of cases had pulmonary, and 78.0% of pulmonary TB patients were found to be the sputum smear positive than 46.0% of them were new sputum smear positive, and 2.0% of them were relapse. On average, for sputum smear positive, TB cases from 2005 to 2011; the treatment success rate was 87.3%; the cure rate was 80.2%; the treatment failure rate was 0.5% and death rate was 10.3%. In general, the TB incidence rate for all TB cases was decreased from 11.9-8.1 a 100000 population and the smear-positive pulmonary TB incidence rate were decreased from 4.7 to 4.1 a 100000 population in eastern Azerbaijan province during 2001-2011. Conclusion: In general, we had a decrease in the incidence rate for all of TB cases. In addition, we had a fall in cure rate and had an increase in drug side effects rate in this year that can be because of elevated old people ratio and high death rate by other indirect causes and lack of regular visits and medications taking according to the treatment protocol.

Temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and perfluorinated compounds in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs (1984-2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Jianxian, Sun; Hui, Peng; Jianying, Hu

2015-02-03

Because investigation on the temporal trends of persistent halogenated compounds (PHCs) is necessary to predict their future impacts on the environment and human health and evaluate the effectiveness of regulations on their production and usage, it is of concern to investigate annual temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples. This study examined the temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs over a period of 25 years (1984-2008), and 62 PCBs (19.2-1030 ng/g dw for total PCBs), 16 PBDEs (4.7-572 ng/g dw for total PBDEs), and 14 PFCs (26-46 ng/g dw for total PFCs) were detected. Although a decreasing temporal trend was observed for total PCBs with annual reduction rate of 3.4% (ρ = 0.005), a clear break point was observed around 1991, indicating their continuing emission in the 1980s in China. All major PBDEs showed increasing temporal trends, with annual change rates at 3.5-10.2% over the 25 years, but a sharp decreasing trend was observed after 2006, indicating a rapid response to the banning of PBDE usage in China in 2004. The greatest annual rate of increase was observed for BDE-28 (10.2%) followed by BDE-100 (7.7%), which would be due to metabolism input from higher brominated PBDEs. Significantly increasing temporal trends were observed for all PFCs, and the annual rates of increase were 7.9% and 5.9% for total perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), respectively. A peak concentration for PFOS was observed in 1989, which may be related to the import history of PFCs in China. The present study is the first report of systematic temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples from China and shows that regulatory policy is needed to reduce their potential health and ecological risk in China considering the increasing temporal trends of PBDEs and PFCs.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

Pathways of 3-biofules (hydrogen, ethanol and methane) production from petrochemical industry wastewater via anaerobic packed bed baffled reactor inoculated with mixed culture bacteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elreedy, Ahmed; Tawfik, Ahmed; Enitan, Abimbola; Kumari, Sheena; Bux, Faizal

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Bio-energy production from MEG contaminated wastewater via AnPBBR, was assessed. • Maximum concurrent H_2 and CH_4 production of 6.57 and 3.57 L/d were obtained. • Maximum ethanol generation of 237.13 mg/L was observed at a HRT of 9 h. • At OLRs up to 4 gCOD/L/d, MEG biodegradability of 71–98% was achieved. • AnPBBR economically achieved shorter payback period (6.25 y), compared to ABR. - Abstract: Simultaneous production of 3-biofuels (hydrogen, ethanol and methane) as by-products of the biodegradation of petrochemical wastewater containing MEG via anaerobic packed bed baffled reactor (AnPBBR), was extensively investigated. A four-chambered reactor supported by polyurethane sheets, was operated at a constant hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 36 h and different organic loading rates (OLRs) of 0.67, 1, 2 and 4 gCOD/L/d. The maximum specific H_2 and CH_4 production rates of 438.07 ± 43.02 and 237.80 ± 21.67 ml/L/d were respectively achieved at OLR of 4 gCOD/L/d. The residual bio-ethanol significantly increased from 57.15 ± 2.31 to 240.19 ± 34.69 mg/L at increasing the OLR from 0.67 to 4 gCOD/L/d, respectively. The maximum MEG biodegradability of 98% was attained at the lowest OLR. Compartment-wise profiles revealed that the maximum H_2 and ethanol production were achieved at HRT of 9 h (1st compartment), while the CH_4 production was peaked at HRTs of 27 and 36 h (last two compartments). Kinetic studies using Stover–Kincannon and completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) in series models were successfully applied to the AnPBBR overall and compartment-to-compartment performance, respectively. The economic evaluation strongly revealed the potentials of using AnPBBR for simultaneous treatment and bio-energy production from petrochemical wastewater as compared to the classical anaerobic baffled reactor (ABR). Microbial analysis using Illumina MiSeq sequencing showed a diversity of bacterial community in AnPBBR. Proteobacteria (36

Developing Online Learning Resources: Big Data, Social Networks, and Cloud Computing to Support Pervasive Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Anshari, Muhammad; Alas, Yabit; Guan, Lim Sei

2016-01-01

Utilizing online learning resources (OLR) from multi channels in learning activities promise extended benefits from traditional based learning-centred to a collaborative based learning-centred that emphasises pervasive learning anywhere and anytime. While compiling big data, cloud computing, and semantic web into OLR offer a broader spectrum of…

Thermophilic two-phase anaerobic digestion using an innovative fixed-bed reactor for enhanced organic matter removal and bioenergy recovery from sugarcane vinasse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuess, Lucas Tadeu; Kiyuna, Luma Sayuri Mazine; Ferraz, Antônio Djalma Nunes; Persinoti, Gabriela Felix

2017-01-01

Highlights: • An innovative fixed-film anaerobic reactor was applied to sugarcane vinasse. • Stable operation was observed for OLRs as high as 30 kg COD m"−"3 day"−"1. • Propionate buildup did not impact the stability of the structured-bed reactor. • Enhanced bioenergy recovery was estimated from biodigestion with phase separation. • Energy extraction was over 20% higher compared to single-phase systems. - Abstract: This study considered the application of anaerobic digestion (AD) with phase separation combined with the use of an anaerobic structured-bed reactor (ASTBR) as the methanogenic phase for the treatment of sugarcane vinasse, a high-strength wastewater resulting from ethanol production. Two combined thermophilic acidogenic-methanogenic systems formed by one single acidogenic reactor followed by two methanogenic reactors operated in parallel were compared, namely, a conventional UASB reactor and an upflow ASTBR reactor. Increasing organic loading rate (OLR) conditions (15–30 kg COD m"−"3 d"−"1) were applied to the methanogenic reactors. The results highlighted the feasibility of applying the ASTBR to vinasse, indicating a global COD removal higher than 80%. The ASTBR exhibited a stable long-term operation (240 days), even for OLR values as high as 30 kg COD m"−"3 d"−"1. The application of similar conditions to the UASB reactor indicated severe performance losses, leading to the accumulation of acids for every increase in the OLR. An energetic potential of 181.5 MJ for each cubic meter of vinasse was estimated from both hydrogen and methane. The provision of bicarbonate alkalinity proved to be a key factor in obtaining stable performance, offsetting the limitations of relatively low hydraulic retention times (<24 h).

Co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sludge to increase biogas production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maranon, E., E-mail: emara@uniovi.es [Department of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Technology, University Institute of Technology of Asturias, Campus of Gijon, University of Oviedo, 33203 Gijon (Spain); Castrillon, L.; Quiroga, G.; Fernandez-Nava, Y. [Department of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Technology, University Institute of Technology of Asturias, Campus of Gijon, University of Oviedo, 33203 Gijon (Spain); Gomez, L.; Garcia, M.M. [Zero Emissions Technology, 41018 Seville (Spain)

2012-10-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Small increase in methane production was observed applying sonication pretreatment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Biogas productions between 720 and 1100 mL/Lreactor day were achieved. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Volatile solids removal efficiencies ranged between 53% and 60%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Lower methane yields were obtained when operating under thermophilic conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Optimum OLR in lab-scale CSTR was 1.2-1.3 g VS/L day (HRT: 20 days). - Abstract: Anaerobic co-digestion strategies are needed to enhance biogas production, especially when treating certain residues such as cattle/pig manure. This paper presents a study of co-digestion of cattle manure with food waste and sewage sludge. With the aim of maximising biogas yields, a series of experiments were carried out under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions using continuously stirred-tank reactors, operating at different hydraulic residence times. Pretreatment with ultrasound was also applied to compare the results with those obtained with non-pretreated waste. Specific methane production decreases when increasing the OLR and decreasing HRT. The maximum value obtained was 603 LCH{sub 4}/kg VS{sub feed} for the co-digestion of a mixture of 70% manure, 20% food waste and 10% sewage sludge (total solid concentration around 4%) at 36 Degree-Sign C, for an OLR of 1.2 g VS/L day. Increasing the OLR to 1.5 g VS/L day led to a decrease of around 20-28% in SMP. Lower methane yields were obtained when operating at 55 Degree-Sign C. The increase in methane production when applying ultrasound to the feed mixtures does not compensate for the energy spent in this pretreatment.

Structure and Origins of Trends in Hydrological Measures over the western United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Das, T; Hidalgo, H G; Dettinger, M D; Cayan, D R; Pierce, D W; Bonfils, C; Barnett, T P; Bala, G; Mirin, A

2008-08-22

This study examines, at 1/8 degree spatial resolution, the geographic structure of observed trends in key hydrologically relevant variables across the western United States (U.S.) over the period 1950-1999, and investigates whether these trends are statistically significantly different from trends associated with natural climate variations. A number of variables were analyzed, including late winter and spring temperature, winter-total snowy days as a fraction of winter-total wet days, 1st April Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) as a fraction of October through March precipitation total (P{sub ONDJFM}), and seasonal (January-February-March; JFM) accumulated runoff as a fraction of water year accumulated runoff. The observed changes were compared to natural internal climate variability simulated by an 850-year control run of the CCSM3-FV climate model, statistically downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid using the method of Constructed Analogues. Both observed and downscaled temperature and precipitation data were then used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to obtain the hydrological variables analyzed in this study. Large trends (magnitudes found less than 5% of the time in the long control run) are common in the observations, and occupy substantial part of the area (37-42%) over the mountainous western U.S. These trends are strongly related to the large scale warming that appears over 89% of the domain. The strongest changes in the hydrologic variables, unlikely to be associated with natural variability alone, have occurred at medium elevations (750 m to 2500 m for JFM runoff fractions and 500 m-3000 m for SWE/PONDJFM) where warming has pushed temperatures from slightly below to slightly above freezing. Further analysis using the data on selected catchments across the simulation domain indicated that hydroclimatic variables must have changed significantly (at 95% confidence level) over at least 45% of the total catchment area to achieve a

Demonstration of Software Application Biogas Optimizer at the Haendeloe Biogas Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cook, Kristofer (Bioprocess Control Sweden AB, Lund (SE))

2008-04-15

There is a growing interest in the utilisation of process optimisation technologies within the biogas industry. This trend is being driven by new and growing market opportunities as well as an interest to improve the overall profitability of commercial biogas processes. Biogas Optimizer, developed by Bioprocess Control Sweden AB based in Lund, Sweden, represents one such process optimisation technology, utilising a supervisory and control approach to improve both biogas production efficiency and process stability. A demonstration project was conducted over a nine month period during 2007 at the Haendeloe biogas plant in Norrkoeping, Sweden, owned and operated by Svensk Biogas AB, to provide an indication of the potential of Biogas Optimizer to improve the competitiveness of biogas producers. The demonstration project attempted to satisfy 3 goals, namely; 1) to obtain baseline production information regarding the average Organic Loading Rate (OLR) and average Biogas Production Rate (BPR), 2) to demonstrate that the technology behind Biogas Optimizer works under full-scale production conditions, and 3) to verify that significant/notable production efficiency improvements can be achieved utilising Biogas Optimizer when compared to baseline production information, and that biogas production can be optimised for maximising the utilisation of reactor capacity while still leaving a comfortable safety margin so as to avoid reactor overloading. The collection of baseline production information during three months resulted in an average OLR of 4.0 Kg VS/m3/day and average BPR of 2.6 Nm3/m3/day being selected as baseline data from which to compare the performance of Biogas Optimizer. The full-scale demonstration of Biogas Optimizer was conducted over a 40 day period. During these 40 days, OLR recommendations from Biogas Optimizer, and the resulting manual adjustment of the OLR by the plant operator, resulted in an increase in the average OLR from 4.0 to 4.7 Kg/m3/day and

Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

2009-03-01

The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

Clustering Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracks by the Standard Deviational Ellipse

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Shahinoor Rahman

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The standard deviational ellipse is useful to analyze the shape and the length of a tropical cyclone (TC track. Cyclone intensity at each six-hour position is used as the weight at that location. Only named cyclones in the Indian Ocean since 1981 are considered for this study. The K-means clustering algorithm is used to cluster Indian Ocean cyclones based on the five parameters: x-y coordinates of the mean center, variances along zonal and meridional directions, and covariance between zonal and meridional locations of the cyclone track. Four clusters are identified across the Indian Ocean; among them, only one cluster is in the North Indian Ocean (NIO and the rest of them are in the South Indian Ocean (SIO. Other characteristics associated with each cluster, such as wind speed, lifespan, track length, track orientation, seasonality, landfall, category during landfall, total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE, and cyclone trend, are analyzed and discussed. Cyclone frequency and energy of Cluster 4 (in the NIO have been following a linear increasing trend. Cluster 4 also has a higher number of landfall cyclones compared to other clusters. Cluster 2, located in the middle of the SIO, is characterized by the long track, high intensity, long lifespan, and high accumulated energy. Sea surface temperature (SST and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR associated with genesis of TCs are also examined in each cluster. Cyclone genesis is co-located with the negative OLR anomaly and the positive SST anomaly. Localized SST anomalies are associated with clusters in the SIO; however, TC geneses of Cluster 4 are associated with SSTA all over the Indian Ocean (IO.

Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

2007-01-01

We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

Incidence rates and trends of hip/femur fractures in five European countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Requena, G; Abbing-Karahagopian, V; Huerta, C

2014-01-01

Hip fractures represent a major public health challenge worldwide. Multinational studies using a common methodology are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence rates (IRs) and trends of hip/femur fractures over the period 2003-2009 in five European countries. The study was performed using seven......, P European countries. With the exception of Denmark, no decreasing trend was observed over the study period....

Airborne pollen trends in the Iberian Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

Galán, C; Alcázar, P; Oteros, J; García-Mozo, H; Aira, M J; Belmonte, J; Diaz de la Guardia, C; Fernández-González, D; Gutierrez-Bustillo, M; Moreno-Grau, S; Pérez-Badía, R; Rodríguez-Rajo, J; Ruiz-Valenzuela, L; Tormo, R; Trigo, M M; Domínguez-Vilches, E

2016-04-15

Airborne pollen monitoring is an effective tool for studying the reproductive phenology of anemophilous plants, an important bioindicator of plant behavior. Recent decades have revealed a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations in Europe, attributing these trends to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and temperature. However, the lack of water availability in southern Europe may prompt a trend towards lower flowering intensity, especially in herbaceous plants. Here we show variations in flowering intensity by analyzing the Annual Pollen Index (API) of 12 anemophilous taxa across 12 locations in the Iberian Peninsula, over the last two decades, and detecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results revealed differences in the distribution and flowering intensity of anemophilous species. A negative correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and winter averages of the NAO index. This study confirms that changes in rainfall in the Mediterranean region, attributed to climate change, have an important impact on the phenology of plants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends of river discharges in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ulaga, F; Kobold, M; Frantar, P

2008-01-01

Trends of river discharges are very important in recognition of climate changes and also in water management. In last years droughts and floods are more and more frequent, therefore monitoring and investigating of hydrological situation became one of the guidance scientific approach. In analysis of mean annual discharges made in Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for the Environment in last years, statistical significance trend was find out only by rivers of northwest alpine region [1] [2] [3]. In recent research of time changing discharges, presumption of generally decreasing of water quantity all over Slovenia was confirmed. Our basic conclusion - in Slovenia it is well recognized decreasing of water quantity in long period of observation. This fact and also worsening of water quality became alarming problems of our future, especially in dry months of the year.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonius G T Schut

Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Performance of low cost scalable air-cathode microbial fuel cell made from clayware separator using multiple electrodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghadge, Anil N; Ghangrekar, Makarand M

2015-04-01

Performance of scalable air-cathode microbial fuel cell (MFC) of 26 L volume, made from clayware cylinder with multiple electrodes, was evaluated. When electrodes were connected in parallel with 100 Ω resistance (R ext), power of 11.46 mW was produced which was 4.48 and 3.73 times higher than individual electrode pair and series connection, respectively. Coulombic efficiency of 5.10 ± 0.13% and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal of 78.8 ± 5.52% was observed at R ext of 3 Ω. Performance under different organic loading rates (OLRs) varying from 0.75 to 6.0 g CODL(-1)d(-1) revealed power of 17.85 mW (47.28 mA current) at OLR of 3.0 g CODL(-1)d(-1). Internal resistance (R int) of 5.2 Ω observed is among the least value reported in literature. Long term operational stability (14 months) demonstrates the technical viability of clayware MFC for practical applications and potential benefits towards wastewater treatment and electricity recovery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anaerobic digestion of grain stillage at high organic loading rates in three different reactor systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, Thomas; Pröter, Jürgen; Scholwin, Frank; Nelles, Michael

2013-01-01

In this study the anaerobic digestion of grain stillage in three different reactor systems (continuous stirred tank reactor, anaerobic sequencing batch reactor, fixed bed reactor) with and without immobilization of microorganisms was investigated to evaluate the performance during increase of the organic loading rate (OLR) from 1 to 10 g of volatile solids (VS) per liter reactor volume and day and decrease of the hydraulic retention time (HRT) from 40 to 6 days. No significant differences have been observed between the performances of the three examined reactor systems. The changes in OLR and HRT caused a reduction of the specific biogas production (SBP) of about 25% from about 650 to 550 L kg −1 of VS but would also diminish the necessary digester volume and investment costs of about 75% compared to the state of the art. -- Highlights: ► It was shown that without immobilization of microorganisms low HRT's are possible. ► No significant differences have been observed between different digester designs. ► Trace element supplementation is obligatory with grain stillage as substrate

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

2013-09-01

To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

Thermophilic co-digestion feasibility of distillers grains and swine manure: effect of C/N ratio and organic loading rate during high solid anaerobic digestion (HSAD).

Science.gov (United States)

Sensai, P; Thangamani, A; Visvanathan, C

2014-01-01

Anaerobic co-digestion of high solids containing distillers grains and swine manure (total solids, 27 +/- 2% and 18 +/- 2%, respectively) was evaluated in this study to assess the effect of C/N ratio and organic loading rate (OLR). Feed mixture was balanced to achieve a C/N ratio of 30/1 by mixing distillers grains and swine manure. Pilot-scale co-digestion of distillers grains and swine manure was carried out under thermophilic conditions in the continuous mode for seven different OLRs from R1 to R7 (3.5, 5, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 kg VS/m3 day) under high solid anaerobic digestion. The methane yield and volatile solid (VS) removal were consistent; ranging from 0.33 to 0.34 m3CH4/kg VS day and 50-53%, respectively, until OLR 8 kg VS/m3 day. After which methane yield and VS removal significantly decreased to 0.26 m3 CH4/kg VS day and 42%, respectively, when OLR was increased to 14 kg VS/m3 day. However, during operation, at OLR of 10 kg VS/m3 day, the methane yield and VS removal increased after the 19th day to 0.33 m3 CH4/kg VS day and 46%, respectively, indicating that a longer acclimatization period is required by methanogens at a higher loading rate.

Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

de la Casa, Antonio; Nasello, Olga

2010-03-01

Long-term rainfall variability in the Province of Córdoba, Argentina is studied. The methodology used was developed by Tomé and Miranda (2004), and the most notable breakpoints in the time series were determined in order to identify sudden transitions from one period to another with a different linear trend sign. All the rain gauges operated by the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (SMN) of Argentina in Córdoba Province, in the period 1930-2006, were analyzed. One of the stations studied, Córdoba Observatorio, has reliable rainfall data since 1873. In this case, the 1925-2006 period and the 1873-2006 period were studied to analyze the influence of series length in terms of the piecewise linear trends produced. Analyzing only one breakpoint in all the series, a trend change is observed from negative to positive in the 1950s in the north area of the region, while in the other areas the opposite change occurs in the 1970s. The residual sum of squares obtained with the partial trend method is compared to that produced by the traditional method. This comparison shows how the multiple trend method enables regional changes to be determined for a given climatological variable.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

Temporal trends (1999–2010) of perfluoroalkyl acids in commonly consumed food items

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johansson, Jana H.; Berger, Urs; Vestergren, Robin; Cousins, Ian T.; Bignert, Anders; Glynn, Anders; Darnerud, Per Ola

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine how dietary exposure to PFAAs has changed over the period when major production changes occurred. Archived samples (1999–2010) of eggs, milk and farmed rainbow trout were analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) in fish (p < 0.002 and p < 0.032, respectively) and eggs (p < 0.001 for both compounds). Concentrations of PFOS in fish and eggs decreased by a factor of 10 and 40, respectively. In eggs there was also a statistically significant decreasing trend in concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The results of this study demonstrate that PFAA concentrations in food items from agricultural food chains and aquatic food chains close to sources respond rapidly to changes in environmental emissions. Implications for the overall understanding of human exposure are discussed. - Highlights: • Food items sampled yearly (1999–2010) were analyzed for perfluoroalkyl acids. • Significantly declining trends were observed for PFOS and PFHxS in farmed fish and eggs. • In eggs, an additional significant decreasing trend was found for PFOA. • A decrease in human dietary exposure to PFHxS, PFOS and PFOA is suggested. - Concentrations of PFOS in farmed fish and in hen's eggs decreased between 1999 and 2010. Furthermore, we observed decreasing trends of PFOA in eggs and PFHxS in fish

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-04-05

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

Role of Mast Cells in Oral Lichen Planus and Oral Lichenoid Reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramalingam, Suganya; Malathi, Narasimhan; Thamizhchelvan, Harikrishnan; Sangeetha, Narasimhan; Rajan, Sharada T

2018-01-01

Oral lichen planus (OLP) is a chronic T cell mediated disease of oral mucosa, skin, and its appendages with a prevalence of 0.5 to 2.6% worldwide. Oral lichenoid reactions (OLR) are a group of lesions with diverse aetiologies but have clinical and histological features similar to OLP, thereby posing a great challenge in differentiating both lesions. Mast cells are multifunctional immune cells that play a major role in the pathogenesis of lichen planus by release of certain chemical mediators. Increased mast cell densities with significant percentage of degranulation have been observed as a consistent finding in pathogenesis of oral lichen planus. The current study was aimed at quantifying the mast cells in histopathological sections of OLP and OLR thereby aiding a means of distinguishing these lesions. The study group involved 21 cases of oral lichen planus, 21 cases of oral lichenoid reactions, and 10 control specimens of normal buccal mucosa. All the cases were stained with Toluidine Blue and routine haematoxylin and eosin and the mast cells were quantified. The results were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and an intergroup analysis was performed using Mann-Whitney U test. The number of mast cells showed an increased value in oral lichen planus when compared to oral lichenoid reaction and thus an estimation of mast cells count could aid in distinguishing OLP from OLR histopathologically.

Low-Temperature (10°C Anaerobic Digestion of Dilute Dairy Wastewater in an EGSB Bioreactor: Microbial Community Structure, Population Dynamics, and Kinetics of Methanogenic Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Bialek

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The feasibility of anaerobic digestion of dairy wastewater at 10°C was investigated in a high height : diameter ratio EGSB reactor. Stable performance was observed at an applied organic loading rate (OLR of 0.5–2 kg COD m−3 d−1 with chemical oxygen demand (COD removal efficiencies above 85%. When applied OLR increased to values above 2 kg COD m−3 d−1, biotreatment efficiency deteriorated, with methanogenesis being the rate-limiting step. The bioreactor recovered quickly (3 days after reduction of the OLR. qPCR results showed a reduction in the abundance of hydrogenotrophic methanogenic Methanomicrobiales and Methanobacteriales throughout the steady state period followed by a sharp increase in their numbers (111-fold after the load shock. Specific methanogenic activity and maximum substrate utilising rate (Amax of the biomass at the end of trial indicated increased activity and preference towards hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, which correlated well with the increased abundance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens. Acetoclastic Methanosaeta spp. remained at stable levels throughout the trial. However, increased apparent half-saturation constant (Km at the end of the trial indicated a decrease in the specific substrate affinity for acetate of the sludge, suggesting that Methanosaeta spp., which have high substrate affinity, started to be outcompeted in the reactor.

The safety indicators program in Taiwan, China : a six-year trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, Mingte

1998-01-01

This paper presents data on the current operating status and the safety indicators (SI) of the six nuclear power units in Taiwan. Analysis of the data collected in a six-year period has been made to obtain trends for each safety indicator. An overview of the trends of the plant operational data during the same period are also provided and discussed. On the whole, the trends of safety indicators are improving during the observed period 1991-1996. The plant operational data have depicted coherent improvement with the safety indicator trends. This result supports the premise that improvements in safety performance and in operational reliability are correspondingly inter-dependent. Both the safety indicators quarterly report and the annual report are available to the public. The public can also approach this information from the AEC's World Wide Web site (http://www.aec.gov.tw). (author)

On the Nature of Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

2010-01-01

A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

Trends in nitrogen concentrations and load in 48 minor streams draining intensively farmed Danish catchments, 1990-2014. How can the observed trend be explained?

Science.gov (United States)

Windolf, Jørgen; Børgesen, Christen; Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Kronvang, Brian; Larsen, Søren E.; Tornbjerg, Henrik

2016-04-01

The total land-based nitrogen load to Danish coastal waters has decreased by 50% since 1990 through a reduction of the outlet of nitrogen from sewage point sources and diffuse sources. On a national scale nitrogen load from diffuse sources, has been reduced by 43% , mainly due to limitation of the amount of N input to different crops, rules for timing and application of manure, mandatory demands for catch crops and restoration of wetlands. The latter increasing the nitrogen retention capacity in surface waters. However, on a local scale huge variations exist in the reduction of the diffuse nitrogen load. Since 1990, an important part of the Danish national monitoring program on the aquatic environment (NOVANA) has been directed at quantifying the nitrogen concentrations and load in 48 minor streams draining small intensively farmed catchments. The 48 catchments have a mean size of 18 km2, farmed area constitutes more than 60% of the catchment area and the catchments have no significant outlets of sewage to the streams. The statistical trend results (based on a seasonal Mann-Kendall) from these 48 streams show a 9-65% reduction in the diffuse nitrogen load (mean: 48%). The large differences in trends in the diffuse N load are related to differences in catchment-specific variables such as nitrogen surpluses, nitrogen leaching from the root zone, hydrogeology and nitrogen retention in ground and surface waters.

Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

2014-12-01

Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary sugars intake. Only thirteen countries (all in the developed world) appear to report estimates of sugars intake from national nutrition surveys at more than one point in time. Definitions of dietary sugars that were used include 'total sugars', 'non-milk extrinsic sugars', 'added sugars', sucrose' and 'mono- and disaccharides'. This variability in terminology across countries meant that comparisons were limited to within countries. Hence trends in dietary sugars intake were examined by country for the whole population (where data permitted), and for specific or combined age and sex subpopulations. Findings indicate that in the majority of population comparisons, estimated dietary sugars intake is either stable or decreasing in both absolute (g/d) and relative (% energy) terms. An increase in sugars intake was observed in few countries and only in specific subpopulations. In conclusion, the findings from the present review suggest that, in the main, dietary sugars intake are decreasing or stable. A consistent approach to estimation of dietary sugars intake from national nutrition surveys is required if more valid estimates of changes in dietary sugars intakes are required in the future.

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

OpenAIRE

Y. Wang; P. Konopka; Y. Liu; H. Chen; R. Müller; F. Plöger; M. Riese; Z. Cai; D. Lü

2012-01-01

Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photoche...

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Infodemiology of systemic lupus erythematous using Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Radin, M; Sciascia, S

2017-07-01

Objective People affected by chronic rheumatic conditions, such as systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), frequently rely on the Internet and search engines to look for terms related to their disease and its possible causes, symptoms and treatments. 'Infodemiology' and 'infoveillance' are two recent terms created to describe a new developing approach for public health, based on Big Data monitoring and data mining. In this study, we aim to investigate trends of Internet research linked to SLE and symptoms associated with the disease, applying a Big Data monitoring approach. Methods We analysed the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, considering 'lupus', 'relapse' and 'fatigue' in a 10-year web-based research. Google Trends automatically normalized data for the overall number of searches, and presented them as relative search volumes, in order to compare variations of different search terms across regions and periods. The Menn-Kendall test was used to evaluate the overall seasonal trend of each search term and possible correlation between search terms. Results We observed a seasonality for Google search volumes for lupus-related terms. In the Northern hemisphere, relative search volumes for 'lupus' were correlated with 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.019) and with fatigue (τ = 0.82; p = 0.003), whereas in the Southern hemisphere we observed a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.85; p = 0.018). Similarly, a significant correlation between 'fatigue' and 'relapse' (τ = 0.70; p < 0.001) was seen also in the Northern hemisphere. Conclusion Despite the intrinsic limitations of this approach, Internet-acquired data might represent a real-time surveillance tool and an alert for healthcare systems in order to plan the most appropriate resources in specific moments with higher disease burden.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

KAUST Repository

Klingmüller, Klaus

2016-04-22

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Barzin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

International variations and trends in renal cell carcinoma incidence and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

2015-03-01

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s. To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden. We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs). RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends. Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening. Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited. Copyright © 2014 European Association of

Mesophilic and thermophilic anaerobic digestion of biologically pretreated abattoir wastewaters in an upflow anaerobic filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gannoun, H.; Bouallagui, H.; Okbi, A.; Sayadi, S.; Hamdi, M.

2009-01-01

The hydrolysis pretreatment of abattoir wastewaters (AW), rich in organic suspended solids (fats and protein) was studied in static and stirred batch reactors without aeration in the presence of natural microbial population acclimated in a storage tank of AW. Microbial analysis showed that the major populations which contribute to the pretreatment of AW belong to the genera Bacillus. Contrary to the static pretreatment, the stirred conditions favoured the hydrolysis and solubilization of 80% of suspended matter into soluble pollution. The pretreated AW, in continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 2 days, was fed to an upflow anaerobic filter (UAF) at an HRT of 2 days. The performance of anaerobic digestion of biologically pretreated AW was examined under mesophilic (37 deg. C) and thermophilic (55 deg. C) conditions. The shifting from a mesophilic to a thermophilic environment in the UAF was carried out with a short start-up of thermophilic condition. The UAF ran at organic loading rates (OLRs) ranging from 0.9 to 6 g COD/L d in mesophilic conditions and at OLRs from 0.9 to 9 g COD/L d in thermophilic conditions. COD removal efficiencies of 80-90% were achieved for OLRs up to 4.5 g COD/L d in mesophilic conditions, while the highest OLRs i.e. 9 g COD/L d led to efficiencies of 70-72% in thermophilic conditions. The biogas yield in thermophilic conditions was about 0.32-0.45 L biogas/g of COD removed for OLRs up to 4.5 g COD/L d. For similar OLR, the UAF in mesophilic conditions showed lower percentage of methanization. Mesophilic anaerobic digestion has been shown to destroy pathogens partially, whereas the thermophilic process was more efficient in the removal of indicator microorganisms and pathogenic bacteria at different organic loading rates.

The effect of organic loading rate and retention time on hydrogen production from a methanogenic CSTR.

Science.gov (United States)

Pakarinen, O; Kaparaju, P; Rintala, J

2011-10-01

The possibility of shifting a methanogenic process for hydrogen production by changing the process parameters viz., organic loading rate (OLR) and hydraulic retention time (HRT) was evaluated. At first, two parallel semi-continuously fed continuously stirred tank reactors (CSTR) were operated as methanogenic reactors (M1 and M2) for 78 days. Results showed that a methane yield of 198-218 L/kg volatile solids fed (VS(fed)) was obtained when fed with grass silage at an OLR of 2 kgVS/m³/d and HRT of 30 days. After 78 days of operation, hydrogen production was induced in M2 by increasing the OLR from 2 to 10 kgVS/m³/d and shortening the HRT from 30 to 6 days. The highest H₂ yield of 42 L/kgVS(fed) was obtained with a maximum H₂ content of 24%. The present results thus demonstrate that methanogenic process can be shifted towards hydrogen production by increasing the OLR and decreasing HRT. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volatile fatty acids production from food waste: effects of pH, temperature, and organic loading rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Jianguo; Zhang, Yujing; Li, Kaimin; Wang, Quan; Gong, Changxiu; Li, Menglu

2013-09-01

The effects of pH, temperature, and organic loading rate (OLR) on the acidogenesis of food waste have been determined. The present study investigated their effects on soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD), volatile fatty acids (VFAs), volatile solids (VS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH4(+)-N). Both the concentration and yield of VFAs were highest at pH 6.0, acetate and butyrate accounted for 77% of total VFAs. VFAs concentration and the VFA/SCOD ratio were highest, and VS levels were lowest, at 45 °C, but the differences compared to the values at 35 °C were slight. The concentrations of VFAs, SCOD, and NH4(+)-N increased as OLR increased, whereas the yield of VFAs decreased from 0.504 at 5 g/Ld to 0.306 at 16 g/Ld. Acetate and butyrate accounted for 60% of total VFAs. The percentage of acetate and valerate increased as OLR increased, whereas a high OLR produced a lower percentage of propionate and butyrate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of organic loading rate on anaerobic treatment of slaughterhouse wastewater in a fluidised-bed reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Borja, R. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Seville (Spain). Inst. de la Grasa; Banks, C.J.; Zhengjian Wang [Manchester Univ. (United Kingdom). Inst. of Science and Technology

1995-09-01

COD removal efficiencies in the range 75.0-98.9% were achieved in an aerobic fluidised-bed reactor treating slaughterhouse wastewater, when evaluated at organic loading rates (OLR) of between 2.9 and 54.0 g COD/l.d, hydraulic retention times (HRT) of between 0.5 and 8 h and feed COD concentrations of between 250 and 4500 mg/l. More than 94% of feed COD could be removed up to OLR of about 27 g COD/l.d. Up to 0.320 litres of methane were produced per gram of COD removed and this methane production rate was independent of the OLR applied in this investigation. Volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration in the reactor increased sharply at an OLR of about 30 g COD/l.d and, therefore, sufficient alkalinity should be provided to prevent pH from dropping to an undesirable level. The anaerobic fluidised-bed system can be operated at a significantly higher liquid throughput than other previously reported systems while maintaining its excellent efficiency. (Author)

Sulfate addition as an effective method to improve methane fermentation performance and propionate degradation in thermophilic anaerobic co-digestion of coffee grounds, milk and waste activated sludge with AnMBR.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qian; Li, Yu-You; Qiao, Wei; Wang, Xiaochang; Takayanagi, Kazuyuki

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of sulfate on propionate degradation and higher organic loading rate (OLR) achievement in a thermophilic AnMBR for 373days using coffee grounds, milk and waste activated sludge (WAS) as the co-substrate. Without the addition of sulfate, the anaerobic system failed at an OLR of 14.6g-COD/L/d, with propionate accumulating to above 2.23g-COD/L, and recovery by an alkalinity supplement was not successful. After sulfate was added into substrates at a COD/SO4(2-) ratio of 200:1 to 350:1, biogas production increased proportionally with OLR increasing from 4.06 to 15.2g-COD/L/d. Propionic acid was maintained at less than 100mg-COD/L due to the effective conversion of propionic acid to methane after the sulfate supplement was added. The long-term stable performance of the AnMBR indicated that adding sulfate was beneficial for the degradation of propionate and achieving a higher OLR under the thermophilic condition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smoking trend indicators in Brazilian capitals, 2006-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deborah Carvalho Malta

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the trend of indicators related to smoking in the capitals of Brazil from 2006 to 2013. Information on smoking trends extracted from the survey of risk and protective factors for chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs are analyzed through telephone interviews - VIGITEL conducted from 2006-2013 for the adult population in Brazilian capitals. To estimate the trend, the simple linear regression model was used. The prevalence of smokers in Brazil showed a relative reduction of 0.62% for each year of the survey, ranging from 15.6% in 2006 to 11.3% in 2013. A decrease was observed in both sexes in all age ranges except between 55 and 64 years in all education levels and regions. The total population of former smokers remained stable, with a reduction for men. Smoking 20 or more cigarettes per day decreased from 4.6% (2006 to 3.4% (2013, or 0.162 percentage points per year. Passive smoking at home decreased among women 13.4% (2009 to 10.7% (2013, a reduction of 0.72% per annum. Passive smoking at work has remained stable over the period. The smoking trend reduced in the period in most indicators, reflecting the importance of the tobacco control actions in the country.

Trends of ozone and Ox in Switzerland from 1992 to 2007: observations at selected stations of the NABEL, OASI (Ticino) and ANU (Graubuenden) networks corrected for meteorological variability. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, J.; Prevot, A.; Beguin, A.F.; Jutzi, V.; Ordonez, C.

2008-11-01

northern stations are positive (up to 0.5 ppb/yr). At stations south of the Alps they are close to zero or even negative. It is surprising that the decrease of emissions in Europe during the last decades is not visible in distinct negative ozone trends north of the Alps. For southern Switzerland, however, there is evidence that the air quality in northern Italy improved leading to lower (less positive) trends than those observed in the Swiss Plateau. We suppose that the emission mitigations are compensated by an increasing ozone background. Possible reasons for this effect are the strong economic growth in developing countries and a continuous increase of the ozone intrusion from the stratosphere. (author)

Non-existence of Steady State Equilibrium in the Neoclassical Growth Model with a Longevity Trend

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem

of steady state equilibrium when considering the empirically observed trend in longevity. We extend a standard continuous time overlapping generations model by a longevity trend and are thereby able to study the properties of mortality-driven population growth. This turns out to be exceedingly complicated...

Optimization of an integrated sponge--granular activated carbon fluidized bed bioreactor as pretreatment to microfiltration in wastewater reuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, W; Ngo, H H; Guo, W S; Listowski, A; Cullum, P

2012-06-01

A specific integrated fluidized bed bioreactor (iFBBR) was optimized in terms of organic loading rate (OLR), hydraulic retention time (HRT) and frequency of new sustainable flocculant (NSBF) addition for primary treated sewage effluent (PTSE) treatment. It was observed that iFBBR achieved the best performance with the operating conditions of 4 times/day NSBF addition, HRT of 90 min and OLR of 8.64 kg COD/day m(3). The removal efficiencies were found to be more than 93% of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), 61% of total nitrogen (T-N) and 60% of total phosphorus (T-P). iFBBR as pretreatment of submerged microfiltration (SMF) is successful in increasing the critical flux and reducing the membrane fouling. NSBF-iFBBR-SMF hybrid system led to very high organic removal efficiency with an average DOC removal of 97% from synthetic PTSE. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franciane F. Silva

2014-12-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. RESULTS: Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually, while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females. CONCLUSIONS: The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Long-term dynamics of OH * temperatures over central Europe: trends and solar correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kalicinsky

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We present the analysis of annual average OH* temperatures in the mesopause region derived from measurements of the Ground-based Infrared P-branch Spectrometer (GRIPS at Wuppertal (51° N, 7° E in the time interval 1988 to 2015. The new study uses a temperature time series which is 7 years longer than that used for the latest analysis regarding the long-term dynamics. This additional observation time leads to a change in characterisation of the observed long-term dynamics. We perform a multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux F10.7 cm (11-year cycle of solar activity and time to describe the temperature evolution. The analysis leads to a linear trend of (−0.089 ± 0.055 K year−1 and a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.2 ± 0.9 K (100 SFU−1 (r2 of fit 0.6. However, one linear trend in combination with the 11-year solar cycle is not sufficient to explain all observed long-term dynamics. In fact, we find a clear trend break in the temperature time series in the middle of 2008. Before this break point there is an explicit negative linear trend of (−0.24 ± 0.07 K year−1, and after 2008 the linear trend turns positive with a value of (0.64 ± 0.33 K year−1. This apparent trend break can also be described using a long periodic oscillation. One possibility is to use the 22-year solar cycle that describes the reversal of the solar magnetic field (Hale cycle. A multiple linear regression using the solar radio flux and the solar polar magnetic field as parameters leads to the regression coefficients Csolar = (5.0 ± 0.7 K (100 SFU−1 and Chale = (1.8 ±  0.5 K (100 µT−1 (r2 = 0.71. The second way of describing the OH* temperature time series is to use the solar radio flux and an oscillation. A least-square fit leads to a sensitivity to the solar activity of (4.1 ± 0.8 K (100 SFU−1, a period P  =  (24.8 ± 3.3 years, and

Changing trends in the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in a rural district of India: Systematic observations over a decade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rohit C Khanna

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Context : Globally, limited data are available on changing trends of blindness from a single region. Aims : To report the changing trends in the prevalence of blindness, visual impairment (VI, and visual outcomes of cataract surgery in a rural district of Andhra Pradesh, India, over period of one decade. Settings and Design : Rural setting; cross-sectional study. Materials and Methods : Using a validated Rapid Assessment of Cataract Surgical Services (RACSS method, population-based, cross-sectional survey was done in a rural district in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India. Two-stage sampling procedure was used to select participants ≥50 years of age. Further, a comparative analysis was done with participants ≥50 years from the previously concluded Andhra Pradesh Eye Disease Study (APEDS study, who belonged to the same district. Statistical Analysis : Done using 11 th version of Stata. Results : Using RACSS, 2160/2300 (93.9% participants were examined as compared with the APEDS dataset (n=521. Age and sex adjusted prevalence of blindness in RACSS and APEDS was 8% (95% CI, 6.9-9.1% and 11% (95% CI, 8.3-13.7%, while that of VI was 13.6% (95% CI, 12.2-15.1% and 40.3% (95% CI, 36.1-44.5%, respectively. Cataract was the major cause of blindness in both the studies. There was a significant reduction in blindness following cataract surgery as observed through RACSS (17.3%; 95% CI, 13.5-21.8% compared with APEDS (34%; 95% CI, 20.9-49.3%. Conclusion : There was a significant reduction in prevalence of blindness and VI in this rural district of India over a decade.

Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

Pilot-scale anaerobic co-digestion of municipal biomass waste and waste activated sludge in China: Effect of organic loading rate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu Xiao, E-mail: liuxiao07@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Wang Wei; Shi Yunchun; Zheng Lei [School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Gao Xingbao [Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Qiao Wei [State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249 (China); Zhou Yingjun [Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Katsura, Nisikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540 (Japan)

2012-11-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Co-digestion of municipal biomass waste (MBW) and waste activated sludge (WAS) was examined on a pilot-scale reactor. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer System performance and stability under OLR of 1.2, 2.4, 3.6, 4.8, 6.0 and 8.0 kg VS (m{sup 3} d){sup -1} were analyzed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A maximum methane production rate of 2.94 m{sup 3} (m{sup 3} d){sup -1} was achieved at OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m{sup 3} d){sup -1} and HRT of 15d. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer With the increasing OLRs, pH values, VS removal rate and methane concentration decreased and VFA increased. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The changing of biogas production rate can be a practical approach to monitor and control anaerobic digestion system. - Abstract: The effects of organic loading rate on the performance and stability of anaerobic co-digestion of municipal biomass waste (MBW) and waste activated sludge (WAS) were investigated on a pilot-scale reactor. The results showed that stable operation was achieved with organic loading rates (OLR) of 1.2-8.0 kg volatile solid (VS) (m{sup 3} d){sup -1}, with VS reduction rates of 61.7-69.9%, and volumetric biogas production of 0.89-5.28 m{sup 3} (m{sup 3} d){sup -1}. A maximum methane production rate of 2.94 m{sup 3} (m{sup 3} d){sup -1} was achieved at OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m{sup 3} d){sup -1} and hydraulic retention time of 15 days. With increasing OLRs, the anaerobic reactor showed a decrease in VS removal rate, average pH value and methane concentration, and a increase of volatile fatty acid concentration. By monitoring the biogas production rate (BPR), the anaerobic digestion system has a higher acidification risk under an OLR of 8.0 kg VS (m{sup 3} d){sup -1}. This result remarks the possibility of relating bioreactor performance with BPR in order to better understand and monitor anaerobic digestion process.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John

2018-01-01

We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.

Trends in Education.

Science.gov (United States)

School Planning & Management, 2002

2002-01-01

Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

Lung Cancer Trends

Science.gov (United States)

... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

2016-04-01

We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Science.gov (United States)

Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

2018-03-01

Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15-30 km) recorded during the period January 1998-December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0-10° S), tropical (10-20° S) and subtropical (20-30° S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ˜ 26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is

Optimization of biogas production from wheat straw stillage in UASB reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaparaju, Prasad; Serrano, Maria; Angelidaki, Irini [Institute of Environment and Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Building 115, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

2010-12-15

In the present study, thermophilic anaerobic digestion of wheat straw stillage was investigated. Methane potential of stillage was determined in batch experiments at two different substrate concentrations. Results showed that higher methane yields of 324 ml/g-(volatile solids) VS{sub added} were obtained at stillage concentrations of 12.8 g-VS/L than at 25.6 g-VS/l. Continuous anaerobic digestion of stillage was performed in an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor at 55 C with 2 days hydraulic retention time. Results showed that both substrate concentration and organic loading rate (OLR) influenced process performance and methane yields. Maximum methane yield of 155 ml CH{sub 4}/g-COD was obtained at stillage mixtures with water of 25% (v/v) in the feed and at an OLR of 17.1 g-COD/(l.d). Soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD) removal at this OLR was 76% (w/w). Increase in OLR to 41.2 g-COD/(l.d) and/or stillage concentration in the feed to 33-50% (v/v) resulted in low methane yields or complete process failure. The results showed that thermophilic anaerobic digestion of wheat straw stillage alone for methane production is feasible in UASB reactor at an OLR of 17.1 g-COD/(l.d) and at substrate concentration of 25% in the feed. The produced methane could improve the process energy and economics of a bioethanol plant and also enable to utilize the stillage in a sustainable manner. (author)

Optimization of biogas production from wheat straw stillage in UASB reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaparaju, Prasad; Serrano, Maria; Angelidaki, Irini

2010-01-01

In the present study, thermophilic anaerobic digestion of wheat straw stillage was investigated. Methane potential of stillage was determined in batch experiments at two different substrate concentrations. Results showed that higher methane yields of 324 ml/g-(volatile solids) VS added were obtained at stillage concentrations of 12.8 g-VS/L than at 25.6 g-VS/l. Continuous anaerobic digestion of stillage was performed in an up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor at 55 o C with 2 days hydraulic retention time. Results showed that both substrate concentration and organic loading rate (OLR) influenced process performance and methane yields. Maximum methane yield of 155 ml CH 4 /g-COD was obtained at stillage mixtures with water of 25% (v/v) in the feed and at an OLR of 17.1 g-COD/(l.d). Soluble chemical oxygen demand (SCOD) removal at this OLR was 76% (w/w). Increase in OLR to 41.2 g-COD/(l.d) and/or stillage concentration in the feed to 33-50% (v/v) resulted in low methane yields or complete process failure. The results showed that thermophilic anaerobic digestion of wheat straw stillage alone for methane production is feasible in UASB reactor at an OLR of 17.1 g-COD/(l.d) and at substrate concentration of 25% in the feed. The produced methane could improve the process energy and economics of a bioethanol plant and also enable to utilize the stillage in a sustainable manner.

Biohydrogen production from specified risk materials co-digested with cattle manure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gilroyed, Brandon H. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research Centre, P.O. Box 3000, Lethbridge, Alberta T1J 4B1 (Canada); Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 (Canada); Li, Chunli; Hao, Xiying; McAllister, Tim A. [Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research Centre, P.O. Box 3000, Lethbridge, Alberta T1J 4B1 (Canada); Chu, Angus [Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 (Canada)

2010-02-15

Biohydrogen production from the anaerobic digestion of specified risk materials (SRM) co-digested with cattle manure was assessed in a 3 x 5 factorial design. Total organic loading rates (OLR) of 10, 20, and 40 g L{sup -1} volatile solids (VS) were tested using manure:SRM (wt/wt) mixtures of 100:0 (control), 90:10, 80:20, 60:40, and 50:50 using five 2 L continuously stirred biodigesters operating at 55 C. Gas samples were taken daily to determine hydrogen production, and slurry samples were analyzed daily for volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration, total ammonia nitrogen (TAN), and VS degradation. Hydrogen production (mL g{sup -1} VS fed) varied quadratically according to OLR (P < 0.01), with maximum production at OLR20, while production decreased linearly (P < 0.0001) as SRM concentration increased. Reduced hydrogen production associated with SRM inclusion at >10% VS may be attributed to a rapid increase in TAN (r = -0.55) or other inhibitors such as long chain fatty acids. Reduced hydrogen production (P < 0.01) at OLR40 versus OLR20 may be related to increased rate of VFA accumulation and final VFA concentration (P < 0.001), as well as inhibition due to hydrogen accumulation (P < 0.001). Biohydrogen production from SRM co-digested with cattle manure may not be feasible on an industrial scale due to reduced hydrogen production with increasing levels of SRM. (author)

Computer architecture technology trends

CERN Document Server

1991-01-01

Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

An Analysis of Trends in U.S. Stormater Utility and Fee Systems

OpenAIRE

Kea, Kandace

2015-01-01

Many municipalities have established stormwater user fees (SUFs), commonly known as stormwater utilities, to raise revenue for stormwater management programs, however little is known about the trends among the fees currently in existence. This research observes trends in the establishment, type and magnitude of user fees by analyzing location, population density, home value, and establishment for a comprehensive national stormwater user fee database with data for 1,490 user fees. The Equivale...

Trend analyses in the health behaviour in school-aged children study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schnohr, Christina W; Molcho, Michal; Rasmussen, Mette

2015-01-01

are considered. When analysing trends, researchers must be able to assess whether a change in prevalence is an expression of an actual change in the observed outcome, whether it is a result of methodological artefacts, or whether it is due to changes in the conceptualization of the outcome by the respondents....... CONCLUSION: The article present recommendations to take a number of the considerations into account. The considerations imply methodological challenges, which are core issues in undertaking trend analyses....... collecting data from adolescents aged 11-15 years, on a broad variety of health determinants and health behaviours. RESULTS: A number of methodological challenges have stemmed from the growth of the HBSC-study, in particular given that the study has a focus on monitoring trends. Some of those challenges...

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Fast neutrons and the optical model: some observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.B.; Lawson, R.D.; Guenther, P.T.

1985-01-01

The optical model of fast-neutron-induced phenomena is considered from the observational viewpoint. Experimental characteristics governing the reliability of the modeling are outlined with attention to implications on model parameters and their uncertainties. The physical characteristics of experimentally-deduced ''regional'' and ''specific'' model parameters are examined including: parameter trends with mass and energy, implications of collective effects, and fundamental relations between real and imaginary potentials. These physical properties are illustrated by studies in the A=60 and 90 regions. General trends are identified and outstanding issues cited. Throughout, the approach is that of observational interpretation for basic and applied purposes. 20 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs

Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Isaevska, Elena; Manasievska, Milena; Alessi, Daniela; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Magnani, Corrado; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pastore, Guido; Fagioli, Franca; Merletti, Franco; Maule, Milena

2017-01-01

In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP), a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years) since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19) since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC) over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011) and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011). From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5) and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6) and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6), respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Isaevska

Full Text Available In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP, a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19 since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011 and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011. From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5 and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6 and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6, respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

Observational methodology in sport sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Teresa Anguera

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the conceptual framework, the key literature and the methods (observation tools, such as category systems and field formats, and coding software, etc. that should be followed when conducting research from the perspective of observational methodology. The observational designs used by the authors’ research group over the last twenty years are discussed, and the procedures for analysing data and assessing their quality are described. Mention is also made of the latest methodological trends in this field, such as the use of mixed methods.

Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Mieruch

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H₂O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

Mapping trends of large and medium size carnivores of conservation interest in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin Cazacu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available We analysed yearly estimates of population size data during 2001-2012 for five carnivores species of conservation interest (Ursus arctos, Canis lupus, Lynx lynx, Felis silvestris and Canis aureus. Population size estimations were done by the game management authorities and integrated by the competent authorities on the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. Trends in data were detected using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test was chosen considering the short length of data series and its usefulness for non-normal distributed data. The trend was tested at three spatial scales: game management units (n=1565, biogeographical region (n=5 and national. Trends depicted for each game management unit were plotted using ArcGIS, resulting species trend distribution maps. For the studied period increasing population trends were observed for Ursus arctos, Canis lupus, Canis aureus and Lynx lynx, while for Felis silvestris there was no trend recorded. Such an analysis in especially useful for conservation proposes, game management and reporting obligations under article 17 of the EC Habitat Directive, using population trend as a proxy for population dynamics. We conclude that the status of the five carnivore species is favourable during the study period.

Atmospheric evaporative demand observations, estimates and driving factors in Spain (1961-2011)

KAUST Repository

Azorin-Molina, Cesar

2015-04-01

We analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of evaporation observations from Piché atmometers (1961-2011; 56 stations) and Pan evaporimeters (1984-2011; 21 stations) across Spain, and compared both measurements with evaporation estimates obtained by four physical models: i.e., Food and Agricultural Organization-56 Penman-Monteith, Food and Agricultural Organization-Pan, PenPan and Penman, based on climate data. In this study we observed a positive and statistically significant correlation between Piché and Pan evaporation measurements during the common period (1984-2011; 19 stations), mainly in summer. When evaporation observations and estimates were compared, we detected positive and statistically significant correlations with the four methods, except for winter. Among the four physical models, the FAO-Pan showed the best fitting to both Piché and Pan evaporation measurements; the PenPan model overestimated evaporation rates; and the FAO-Penman-Monteith and Penman methods underestimated evaporation observations. We also observed a better spatial agreement between Pan evaporation and estimates than that obtained by Piché measurements. Annual and seasonal trends of evaporation estimates show a statistically significant increase for 1961-2011, which do not agree with long-term Piché evaporation trends; e.g. a discontinuity was found around the 1980s. Radiative and aerodynamic driving factors suggest that this discontinuity, and the observed evaporation trends across Spain could be associated with the abrupt increase in air temperature observed during last few decades (i.e., global warming). Further investigations using available Piché evaporation observations for other regions are needed to better understand physical components influencing long-term trends of evaporation.

Atmospheric evaporative demand observations, estimates and driving factors in Spain (1961-2011)

KAUST Repository

Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; McVicar, Tim R.; Morá n-Tejeda, Enrique; Revuelto, Jesú s; El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; Martí n-Herná ndez, Natalia; Tomà s, M.

2015-01-01

We analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of evaporation observations from Piché atmometers (1961-2011; 56 stations) and Pan evaporimeters (1984-2011; 21 stations) across Spain, and compared both measurements with evaporation estimates obtained by four physical models: i.e., Food and Agricultural Organization-56 Penman-Monteith, Food and Agricultural Organization-Pan, PenPan and Penman, based on climate data. In this study we observed a positive and statistically significant correlation between Piché and Pan evaporation measurements during the common period (1984-2011; 19 stations), mainly in summer. When evaporation observations and estimates were compared, we detected positive and statistically significant correlations with the four methods, except for winter. Among the four physical models, the FAO-Pan showed the best fitting to both Piché and Pan evaporation measurements; the PenPan model overestimated evaporation rates; and the FAO-Penman-Monteith and Penman methods underestimated evaporation observations. We also observed a better spatial agreement between Pan evaporation and estimates than that obtained by Piché measurements. Annual and seasonal trends of evaporation estimates show a statistically significant increase for 1961-2011, which do not agree with long-term Piché evaporation trends; e.g. a discontinuity was found around the 1980s. Radiative and aerodynamic driving factors suggest that this discontinuity, and the observed evaporation trends across Spain could be associated with the abrupt increase in air temperature observed during last few decades (i.e., global warming). Further investigations using available Piché evaporation observations for other regions are needed to better understand physical components influencing long-term trends of evaporation.

Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

2017-04-01

The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

NS&T Management Observations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gianotto, David [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2014-09-01

The INL Management Observation Program (MOP) is designed to improve managers and supervisors understanding of work being performed by employees and the barriers impacting their success. The MOP also increases workers understanding of managements’ expectations as they relate to safety, security, quality, and work performance. Management observations (observations) are designed to improve the relationship and trust between employees and managers through increased engagement and interactions between managers and researchers in the field. As part of continuous improvement, NS&T management took initiative to focus on the participation and quality of observations in FY 14. This quarterly report is intended to (a) summarize the participation and quality of management’s observations, (b) assess observations for commonalities or trends related to facility or process barriers impacting research, and (c) provide feedback and make recommendations for improvements NS&T’s MOP.

Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

2015-05-01

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

Science.gov (United States)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Sirenomelia in Argentina: Prevalence, geographic clusters and temporal trends analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Groisman, Boris; Liascovich, Rosa; Gili, Juan Antonio; Barbero, Pablo; Bidondo, María Paz

2016-07-01

Sirenomelia is a severe malformation of the lower body characterized by a single medial lower limb and a variable combination of visceral abnormalities. Given that Sirenomelia is a very rare birth defect, epidemiological studies are scarce. The aim of this study is to evaluate prevalence, geographic clusters and time trends of sirenomelia in Argentina, using data from the National Network of Congenital Anomalies of Argentina (RENAC) from November 2009 until December 2014. This is a descriptive study using data from the RENAC, a hospital-based surveillance system for newborns affected with major morphological congenital anomalies. We calculated sirenomelia prevalence throughout the period, searched for geographical clusters, and evaluated time trends. The prevalence of confirmed cases of sirenomelia throughout the period was 2.35 per 100,000 births. Cluster analysis showed no statistically significant geographical aggregates. Time-trends analysis showed that the prevalence was higher in years 2009 to 2010. The observed prevalence was higher than the observed in previous epidemiological studies in other geographic regions. We observed a likely real increase in the initial period of our study. We used strict diagnostic criteria, excluding cases that only had clinical diagnosis of sirenomelia. Therefore, real prevalence could be even higher. This study did not show any geographic clusters. Because etiology of sirenomelia has not yet been established, studies of epidemiological features of this defect may contribute to define its causes. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:604-611, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

Science.gov (United States)

Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-05-01

The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

The distribution of the annual and semiannual cycles in the tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sumathipala, W.L.

1992-06-01

The distributions of annual and semiannual cycles in the tropics are studied using outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), and FGGE level III b wind data. Amplitudes and variances of first and second harmonics (in the time domain) of low level zonal wind (U) are largest over monsoon regions of the eastern hemisphere and account for more than 80% of the variance. The first harmonic of OLR shows largest amplitudes over the continental regions between 10-15 degrees from the equator. The first harmonics of both low-level wind and OLR show standing character. The second and third harmonics of U are characterized by cross equatorial and clockwise phase propagation. All three harmonics are ''phase locked'' in the monsoon region of the eastern hemisphere during summer. Amplitude of the first harmonic of low level meridonal wind (V) is prominent at the Somalia coast and Malaysia. Amplitude variations of first and second harmonics of upper level zonal wind exhibit the response of subtropical jet streams to monsoon and inter-monsoon convective activity. Fairly strong amplitudes of OLR are found over the equatorial land areas where rainfall is maximum during the transition periods. (author). 15 refs, 7 figs

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Toihir

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene, using total column ozone data (TCO and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15–30 km recorded during the period January 1998–December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, ENSO, 11-year solar cycle that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0–10° S, tropical (10–20° S and subtropical (20–30° S. Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java. The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at  ∼ 26�

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

Effect of loading rate variation on soybean protein wastewater treatment by UASB reactor

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Yi; Li, Yongfeng; Guo, Zi-rui; Jiao, An-ying; Han, Wei; Yang, Chuan-ping

2010-11-01

In order to improve the efficiency and evaluate the feasibility of anaerobic digestion for treatment of soybean protein wastewater. The stability and performance of the Up-Flow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) process was investigated at different organic loading rates (OLRS) and hydraulic retention times over 200 days. When chemical oxygen demand (COD) reached maximum, the loading rate was adjusted in a small way and indicators such as VFA, pH and COD in effluent as well as gas production are observed. These experimental results clearly showed that, the most proper corresponding organic loading rate (OLR) and hydraulic retention time were 6 kg/ (m3ṡd) (COD = 6000 mg/L) and 24 h respectively. Up to 85% of COD was removed and the CH4 production rate of 3.2 m3/(m3ṡd) was obtained. The produced biogas contained 72% of CH4. In the mean time, anaerobic sludge multiplies more faster and exiguous particles appeared. Granules with diameter 1-3 mm.

Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

2015-01-01

Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

Health trends in the wake of the financial crisis-increasing inequalities?

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Kenneth; Tøge, Anne Grete

2017-08-01

The financial crisis that hit Europe in 2007-2008 and the corresponding austerity policies have generated concern about increasing health inequalities, although impacts have been less salient than initially expected. One explanation could be that health inequalities emerged first a few years into the crisis. This study investigates health trends in the wake of the financial crisis and analyses health inequalities across a number of relevant population subgroups, including those defined by employment status, age, family type, gender, and educational attainment. This study uses individual-level panel data (EU-SILC, 2010-2013) to investigate trends in self-rated health. By applying individual fixed effects regression models, the study estimates the average yearly change in self-rated health for persons aged 15-64 years in 28 European countries. Health inequalities are investigated using stratified analyses. Unemployed respondents, particularly those who were unemployed in all years of observation, had a steeper decline in self-rated health than the employed. Respondents of prime working age (25-54 years) had a steeper decline than their younger (15-24) and older (55-64) counterparts, while single parents had a more favorable trend in self-rated health than dual parents. We did not observe any increasing health inequalities based on gender or educational attainment. Health inequalities increased in the wake of the financial crisis, especially those associated with employment status, age, and family type. We did not observe increasing health inequalities in terms of levels of educational attainment and gender.

Modelling the decadal trend of ecosystem carbon fluxes demonstrates the important role of functional changes in a temperate deciduous forest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Jian; Jansson, P.E.; van der Linden, Leon

2013-01-01

Temperate forests are globally important carbon sinks and stocks. Trends in net ecosystem exchange have been observed in a Danish beech forest and this trend cannot be entirely attributed to changing climatic drivers. This study sought to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the observed trend...... for nitrogen demand during mast years is supported by the inter-annual variability in the estimated parameters. The inter-annual variability of photosynthesis parameters was fundamental to the simulation of the trend in carbon fluxes in the investigated beech forest and this demonstrates the importance......, the latent and sensible heat fluxes and the CO2 fluxes decreased the parameter uncertainty considerably compared to using CO2 fluxes as validation data alone. The fitted model was able to simulate the observed carbon fluxes well (R2=0.8, mean error=0.1gCm−2d−1) but did not reproduce the decadal (1997...

Uncertainty of pesticide residue concentration determined from ordinary and weighted linear regression curve.

Science.gov (United States)

Yolci Omeroglu, Perihan; Ambrus, Árpad; Boyacioglu, Dilek

2018-03-28

Determination of pesticide residues is based on calibration curves constructed for each batch of analysis. Calibration standard solutions are prepared from a known amount of reference material at different concentration levels covering the concentration range of the analyte in the analysed samples. In the scope of this study, the applicability of both ordinary linear and weighted linear regression (OLR and WLR) for pesticide residue analysis was investigated. We used 782 multipoint calibration curves obtained for 72 different analytical batches with high-pressure liquid chromatography equipped with an ultraviolet detector, and gas chromatography with electron capture, nitrogen phosphorus or mass spectrophotometer detectors. Quality criteria of the linear curves including regression coefficient, standard deviation of relative residuals and deviation of back calculated concentrations were calculated both for WLR and OLR methods. Moreover, the relative uncertainty of the predicted analyte concentration was estimated for both methods. It was concluded that calibration curve based on WLR complies with all the quality criteria set by international guidelines compared to those calculated with OLR. It means that all the data fit well with WLR for pesticide residue analysis. It was estimated that, regardless of the actual concentration range of the calibration, relative uncertainty at the lowest calibrated level ranged between 0.3% and 113.7% for OLR and between 0.2% and 22.1% for WLR. At or above 1/3 of the calibrated range, uncertainty of calibration curve ranged between 0.1% and 16.3% for OLR and 0% and 12.2% for WLR, and therefore, the two methods gave comparable results.

Expression of survivin and p53 in oral lichen planus, lichenoid reaction and lichenoid dysplasia: An immunohistochemical study

Science.gov (United States)

Basheer, Shaini; Shameena, PM; Sudha, S; Varma, Sujatha; Vidyanath, S; Varekar, Aniruddha

2017-01-01

Context: The malignant transformation potential of oral lichen planus (OLP) and related lesions is a subject of great controversy. Aim: The aim of this study was to compare the expression of proteins related to apoptosis and tumour suppressor gene processes in OLP, oral lichenoid reaction (OLR) and oral lichenoid dysplasia (OLD). Materials and Methods The immunohistochemical study was carried out to investigate the expressions of survivin and p53 in a total of 30 lesional biopsy specimens - 10 cases each of OLP, OLR and OLD. The expression rates were further compared with 10 control specimens of normal oral mucosa (NORM). Results: Immunoreactivity for p53 was seen in 7 cases (70%) of OLD, 4 cases (40%) of OLP and 2 cases (20%) of OLR and none of NORM. We obtained a significant difference (P = 0.01) in mean p53 expression between the different entities. The positive staining rate of survivin was found to be significantly different between OLD (50%), OLP (10%), OLR (0%), and normal mucosa (0%) (P = 0.004). There was a positive correlation between p53 and survivin expression in OLP and OLD using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Conclusion: Lichenoid dysplasia has shown p53 and survivin expression in the range of not OLP, but leukoplakia. On the other hand, OLR seems to be an innocuous lesion. The study results with OLP are inconclusive but points toward a small but important malignant potential in OLP. This kind of comparative study highlights the importance of biopsying OLP and related lesions for proper diagnosis and appropriate management. PMID:29391729

Interactive Gaussian Graphical Models for Discovering Depth Trends in ChemCam Data

Science.gov (United States)

Oyen, D. A.; Komurlu, C.; Lanza, N. L.

2018-04-01

Interactive Gaussian graphical models discover surface compositional features on rocks in ChemCam targets. Our approach visualizes shot-to-shot relationships among LIBS observations, and identifies the wavelengths involved in the trend.

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Trends of ozone and O{sub x} in Switzerland from 1992 to 2007: observations at selected stations of the NABEL, OASI (Ticino) and ANU (Graubuenden) networks corrected for meteorological variability. Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, J.; Prevot, A. [Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry (LAC), Villigen (Switzerland); Beguin, A.F. [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), Zuerich (Switzerland); Jutzi, V. [Vincent Jutzi, Lausanne (Switzerland); Ordonez, C. [Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB (United Kingdom)

2008-11-15

negative trends were found (up to -1 ppb/yr). In winter the trends of the northern stations are positive (up to 0.5 ppb/yr). At stations south of the Alps they are close to zero or even negative. It is surprising that the decrease of emissions in Europe during the last decades is not visible in distinct negative ozone trends north of the Alps. For southern Switzerland, however, there is evidence that the air quality in northern Italy improved leading to lower (less positive) trends than those observed in the Swiss Plateau. We suppose that the emission mitigations are compensated by an increasing ozone background. Possible reasons for this effect are the strong economic growth in developing countries and a continuous increase of the ozone intrusion from the stratosphere. (author)

Accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imaeda, Daisuke; Kunisue, Tatsuya; Ochi, Yoko; Iwata, Hisato; Tsydenova, Oyuna; Takahashi, Shin; Amano, Masao; Petrov, Evgeny A.; Batoev, Valeriy B.; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2009-01-01

This study investigated the accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDD/Fs, dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) in the blubber of Baikal seals collected in 1992 and 2005. DL-PCBs (480-3600 ng/g) and NDL-PCBs (980-35,000 ng/g) were dominant contaminants. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs in males were significantly higher than in females. In males, age-dependent accumulation was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs. PCDFs and non-ortho PCBs showed no such trends, implying that exposure of seals to these contaminants has been decreasing in recent years. No decreasing temporal trend was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs, suggesting that Baikal seals are still exposed to PCDDs and PCBs. TEQs of PCDDs and mono-ortho PCBs in seals collected in 2005 accounted for 62-77% of total TEQs. The TEQ levels in 40% of the specimens exceeded the threshold level for immunosuppression observed in harbor seals (209 pg/g). - Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs remain high in Baikal seals

ICT and Mass Commnication: The Trends and Challenges of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper reviews the environment of public affairs reporting in Nigeria and examines it against the global trend as shaped by ICTs and the challenges this poses to the business of reporting. The paper observes that not only have the traditional reportorial tools been replaced with slim, fast and versatile digital tools, the ...

Smoking Trends and Disparities Among Black and Non-Hispanic Whites in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakuma, Kari-Lyn Kobayakawa; Felicitas, Jamie; Fagan, Pebbles; Gruder, Charles L; Blanco, Lyzette; Cappelli, Christopher; Trinidad, Dennis R

2015-12-01

The current study examined disparities in smoking trends across Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites in California. Data from the 1996 to 2008 California Tobacco Survey were analyzed to examine trends in smoking behaviors and cessation across Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites. A decrease in overall ever and current smoking was observed for both Black and non-Hispanic Whites across the 12-year time period. A striking decrease in proportions of heavy daily smokers for both Black and non-Hispanic Whites were observed. Proportions of light and intermittent smokers and moderate daily smokers displayed modest increases for Blacks, but large increases for non-Hispanic Whites. Increases in successful cessation were also observed for Blacks and, to a lesser extent, for non-Hispanic Whites. Smoking behavior and cessation trends across Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites were revealing. The decline in heavy daily and former smokers may demonstrate the success and effectiveness of tobacco control efforts in California. However, the increase in proportions of light and intermittent smokers and moderate daily smokers for both Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites demonstrates a need for tobacco cessation efforts focused on lighter smokers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Individual and combined effects of organic, toxic, and hydraulic shocks on sequencing batch reactor in treating petroleum refinery wastewater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mizzouri, Nashwan Sh., E-mail: nashwan_mizzouri@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Lembah Pantai, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Duhok, Kurdistan (Iraq); Shaaban, Md Ghazaly [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Lembah Pantai, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2013-04-15

Highlights: ► This research focuses on the combined impact of shock loads on the PRWW treatment. ► System failure resulted when combined shock of organic and hydraulic was applied. ► Recovery was achieved by replacing glucose with PRWW and OLR was decreased to half. ► Worst COD removals were 68.9, and 57.8% for organic, and combined shocks. -- Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of toxic, hydraulic, and organic shocks on the performance of a lab-scale sequencing batch reactor (SBR) with a capacity of 5 L. Petroleum refinery wastewater (PRWW) was treated with an organic loading rate (OLR) of approximately 0.3 kg chemical oxygen demand (COD)/kg MLSS d at 12.8 h hydraulic retention time (HRT). A considerable variation in the COD was observed for organic, toxic, hydraulic, and combined shocks, and the worst values observed were 68.9, 77.1, 70.2, and 57.8%, respectively. Improved control of toxic shock loads of 10 and 20 mg/L of chromium (VI) was identified. The system was adversely affected by the organic shock when a shock load thrice the normal value was used, and this behavior was repeated when the hydraulic shock was 4.8 h HRT. The empirical recovery period was greater than the theoretical period because of the inhibitory effects of phenols, sulfides, high oil, and grease in the PRWW. The system recovery rates from the shocks were in the following order: toxic, organic, hydraulic, and combined shocks. System failure occurred when the combined shocks of organic and hydraulic were applied. The system was resumed by replacing the PRWW with glucose, and the OLR was reduced to half its initial value.

Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

2011-08-01

The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

2009-09-01

In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio

2018-05-01

A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

Modern trends on development of cotton production and processing chain Uzbekistan

OpenAIRE

Abdimumin Alikulov

2010-01-01

The cotton production complex of Uzbekistan has high rating comparing other export oriented branches. Cotton fiber value in 2008 share made 12% from total export of the country. The paper observes some trends and policy developments in cotton industry development.

Marketing Trends to Watch

Science.gov (United States)

Circle, Alison

2009-01-01

This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

Sludge granulation during anaerobic treatment of pre-hydrolysed ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An upflow anaerobic sludge bed (UASB) digester was operated at different hydraulic retention times (HRT) ranging from 26.7 h to 2.2 h, while the organic load rate (OLR) ranged from 0.9 to 7.3 kgCOD/m3·d. Sludge granulation was observed after day 150 of operation, at an HRT of 3.4 h, when small granules of less than 2 ...

Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

Science.gov (United States)

Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzaneh Zolala

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

KAUST Repository

McCabe, Matthew; Liu, Yi; Evans, Jason; De Jeu, Richard; van Dijk, Albert

2013-01-01

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

KAUST Repository

McCabe, Matthew

2013-12-01

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

2018-03-01

Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

2014-01-01

To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

How Do Trend Researchers Conduct Research? The Production of Knowledge in a Controversial Field

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Michaela Pfadenhauer

2004-05-01

Full Text Available The planned research project described in this article focuses on the methods of trend research—not only in a narrow literal sense of techniques of data collection and data evaluation but also in a broader understanding of the logic of knowledge production in this controversial field. Initially trend research can be appointed between market research on the one hand and futurology on the other hand. Criticism regarding trend research as well as its innovative potential is also mentioned. Following the recent studies, trend research is conceived as application-oriented research in a broad sense. As far as the methodology is concerned, the proposed study promises to be an empirically-founded contribution by integrating analysis from sources such as explorative and focused conversations, observations and expert interviews. The study uses the example of trend research and asks the question how research is actually "done" and if it is application oriented or not. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0402366

Fast breeder reactors: Experience and trends. V. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

The IAEA Symposium on ''Fast Breeder Reactors: Experience and Future Trends'' was held, at the invitation of the Government of France, in Lyons, France, on 22-26 July 1985. It was hosted by the French Commissariat a l'energie atomique and Electricite de France. The purpose of the Symposium was to review the experience gained so far in the field of LMFBRs, taking into account the constructional, operational, technological, economic and fuel cycle aspects, and to consider the developmental trends as well as the international co-operation in fast breeder reactor design and utilization. The Symposium was attended by almost 400 participants (340 participants, 35 observers and 20 journalists) from 25 countries and five international organizations. More than 80 papers were presented and discussed during six regular sessions and four poster sessions. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers

Monitoring influenza activity in the United States: a comparison of traditional surveillance systems with Google Flu Trends.

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Justin R Ortiz

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections.Influenza activity data from 2003-04 through 2007-08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance, and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance. Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79. The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89. Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003-04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87 or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90.This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003-04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior.

Monitoring Influenza Activity in the United States: A Comparison of Traditional Surveillance Systems with Google Flu Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Justin R.; Zhou, Hong; Shay, David K.; Neuzil, Kathleen M.; Fowlkes, Ashley L.; Goss, Christopher H.

2011-01-01

Background Google Flu Trends was developed to estimate US influenza-like illness (ILI) rates from internet searches; however ILI does not necessarily correlate with actual influenza virus infections. Methods and Findings Influenza activity data from 2003–04 through 2007–08 were obtained from three US surveillance systems: Google Flu Trends, CDC Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (CDC ILI Surveillance), and US Influenza Virologic Surveillance System (CDC Virus Surveillance). Pearson's correlation coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to compare surveillance data. An analysis was performed to investigate outlier observations and determine the extent to which they affected the correlations between surveillance data. Pearson's correlation coefficient describing Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance over the study period was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). The correlation between CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance over the same period was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.89). Most of the outlier observations in both comparisons were from the 2003–04 influenza season. Exclusion of the outlier observations did not substantially improve the correlation between Google Flu Trends and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.82; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.87) or CDC ILI Surveillance and CDC Virus Surveillance (0.86; 95%CI: 0.82, 0.90). Conclusions This analysis demonstrates that while Google Flu Trends is highly correlated with rates of ILI, it has a lower correlation with surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza. Most of the outlier observations occurred during the 2003–04 influenza season that was characterized by early and intense influenza activity, which potentially altered health care seeking behavior, physician testing practices, and internet search behavior. PMID:21556151

Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

Exploring historical trends using taxonomic name metadata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schenk Ryan

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Authority and year information have been attached to taxonomic names since Linnaean times. The systematic structure of taxonomic nomenclature facilitates the ability to develop tools that can be used to explore historical trends that may be associated with taxonomy. Results From the over 10.7 million taxonomic names that are part of the uBio system 4, approximately 3 million names were identified to have taxonomic authority information from the years 1750 to 2004. A pipe-delimited file was then generated, organized according to a Linnaean hierarchy and by years from 1750 to 2004, and imported into an Excel workbook. A series of macros were developed to create an Excel-based tool and a complementary Web site to explore the taxonomic data. A cursory and speculative analysis of the data reveals observable trends that may be attributable to significant events that are of both taxonomic (e.g., publishing of key monographs and societal importance (e.g., world wars. The findings also help quantify the number of taxonomic descriptions that may be made available through digitization initiatives. Conclusion Temporal organization of taxonomic data can be used to identify interesting biological epochs relative to historically significant events and ongoing efforts. We have developed an Excel workbook and complementary Web site that enables one to explore taxonomic trends for Linnaean taxonomic groupings, from Kingdoms to Families.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

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López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

Trends in bromide wet deposition concentrations in the contiguous United States, 2001-2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Wetherbee, Gregory A; Lehmann, Christopher M B; Kerschner, Brian M; Ludtke, Amy S; Green, Lee A; Rhodes, Mark F

2018-02-01

Bromide (Br - ) and other solute concentration data from wet deposition samples collected and analyzed by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) from 2001 to 2016, were statistically analyzed for trends both geographically and temporally by precipitation type. Analysis was limited to NADP sites in the contiguous 48 United States. The Br - concentrations for this time period had a high number of values censored at the detection limits with greater than 86 percent of sample concentrations below analytical detection. Bromide was more frequently detected at NADP sites in coastal regions. Analysis using specialized statistical techniques for censored data revealed that Br - concentrations varied by precipitation type with higher concentrations usually observed in liquid versus precipitation containing snow. Negative temporal trends in Br - wet deposition concentrations were observed at a majority of NADP sites; approximately 25 percent of these trend values were statistically significant at less than 0.05 to 0.10 significance levels. Potential causes for the negative trends were explored, including annual and seasonal changes in precipitation depth, reduced emissions of methyl bromide (CH 3 Br) from coastal wetlands, and declining industrial use of bromine compounds. The results indicate that Br - in non-coastal wet-deposition comes mainly from long-range transport, not local sources. Correlations between Br - , chloride, and nitrate concentrations also were evaluated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A graphical study of tuberculosis incidence and trends in the WHO's European region (1980-2006).

Science.gov (United States)

Ríos, Martín; Monleón-Getino, Toni

2009-01-01

A graphical output was obtained using classical principal component analysis techniques in order to analyse tuberculosis trends in Europe over a 27-year period (1980-2006). Taxonomic methods were used to better define the interrelationship between the data in the 52 countries studied. Data were provided by the World Health Organization. Differences in the overall incidence and trends were identified during the 1980-2006 period. The highest rates of incidence were reported in Kazakhstan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and Kyrgyzstan. High and moderately high rates were reported in the former Soviet Union, the former Yugoslavia, some countries from the former Eastern Bloc, Turkey and Portugal. The lowest rates were reported in the eastern Mediterranean, Scandinavia and Iceland. Risk of infection was determined by social conditions, intravenous drug use, HIV infection and immigration from countries where tuberculosis is endemic. As regards development of tuberculosis in Europe, 1992 represents the change in the decreasing trend in the incidence observed from 1980, when the incidence presented a minimum general trend and started to increase. The linear model calculated to project the rate of increase from 2006 to 2015, reveals the tuberculosis rates observed during the 1980s.

Nuclear Installation Safety: General Observations and Trends from IAEA Peer Reviews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rzentkowski, G.

2016-01-01

The Safety Review Services (SRSs) for nuclear installations address the needs of Member States at all stages of installations’ lifecycle. SRSs are based on the IAEA Safety Standards and are provided on Member States’ request to peer review national regulatory frameworks and safety provisions for nuclear installations. They result in recommendations and suggestions to improve national regulations and operational safety, and serve to exert peer pressure to ensure that that every Member State with nuclear installations recognizes its safety responsibility and the need to comply with the IAEA Safety Standards. This presentation provides an overview of SRSs for Nuclear Installations, including their structure and main subject areas. The presentation also summarizes general findings and trends which clearly demonstrate that there is continuous improvement in regulation of nuclear installations and in safety of their operation. Nevertheless, there is the need to further enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of SRSs through review of the overall governance model and service delivery to better serve the needs of Member States. The presentation points out some areas of improvements which have already been implemented or are being considered for implementation. Just as important, SRSs are conducted by teams of experts from around the world to strengthening international cooperation, ensure diversity and impartiality, and improve the overall quality of the safety review being conducted. The review team members are also provided with the opportunity for mutual learning and sharing good practices among themselves and with the Member State undergoing the review. As a result, SRAs play an important role in a quest to harmonize regulatory requirements and approaches globally. (author)

Trends in types of dermatology books available over the last ten years.

Science.gov (United States)

Aquino, Lisa L; Wu, Jashin J

2009-06-15

Shifts in interest toward cosmetic and surgical dermatology and away from medical and academic dermatology have been observed in recent years. We hypothesized that this trend would be evident in the types of books available for purchase from a major medical textbook supplier. Books published from 1998-2008 were categorized by type and statistical testing was performed to determine if this trend has been reflected in books published. The percentage of medical dermatology books decreased over time, whereas the percentage of cosmetic and surgical dermatology books increased over time.

National Prevalence and Trends of HIV Transmitted Drug Resistance in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Avila-Ríos, Santiago; García-Morales, Claudia; Garrido-Rodríguez, Daniela; Ormsby, Christopher E.; Hernández-Juan, Ramón; Andrade-Villanueva, Jaime; González-Hernández, Luz A.; Torres-Escobar, Indiana; Navarro-Álvarez, Samuel; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

2011-01-01

Background Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains an important concern for the management of HIV infection, especially in countries that have recently scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) access. Methodology/Principal Findings We designed a study to assess HIV diversity and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence and trends in Mexico. 1655 ART-naïve patients from 12 Mexican states were enrolled from 2005 to 2010. TDR was assessed from plasma HIV pol sequences using Stanford scores and the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. TDR prevalence fluctuations over back-projected dates of infection were tested. HIV subtype B was highly prevalent in Mexico (99.9%). TDR prevalence (Stanford score>15) in the country for the study period was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.2∶8.8) and 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7∶8.2) based on the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. NRTI TDR was the highest (4.2%), followed by NNRTI (2.5%) and PI (1.7%) TDR. Increasing trends for NNRTI (p = 0.0456) and PI (p = 0.0061) major TDR mutations were observed at the national level. Clustering of viruses containing minor TDR mutations was observed with some apparent transmission pairs and geographical effects. Conclusions TDR prevalence in Mexico remains at the intermediate level and is slightly lower than that observed in industrialized countries. Whether regional variations in TDR trends are associated with differences in antiretroviral drug usage/ART efficacy or with local features of viral evolution remains to be further addressed. PMID:22110765

Incidence trends of adenocarcinoma of the cervix in 13 European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, Freddie; Carstensen, Bendix; Møller, Henrik; Zappa, Marco; Zakelj, Maja Primic; Lawrence, Gill; Hakama, Matti; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2005-09-01

Rapid increases in cervical adenocarcinoma incidence have been observed in Western countries in recent decades. Postulated explanations include an increasing specificity of subtype-the capability to diagnose the disease, an inability of cytologic screening to reduce adenocarcinoma, and heterogeneity in cofactors related to persistent human papillomavirus infection. This study examines the possible contribution of these factors in relation with trends observed in Europe. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to cervical adenocarcinoma incidence trends in women ages countries. Age-adjusted adenocarcinoma incidence rates increased throughout Europe, the rate of increase ranging from around 0.5% per annum in Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland to >/=3% in Finland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The increases first affected generations born in the early 1930s through the mid-1940s, with risk invariably higher in women born in the mid-1960s relative to those born 20 years earlier. The magnitude of this risk ratio varied considerably from around 7 in Slovenia to almost unity in France. Declines in period-specific risk were observed in United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, primarily among women ages >30. Whereas increasing specificity of subtype with time may be responsible for some of the increases in several countries, the changing distribution and prevalence of persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types, alongside an inability to detect cervical adenocarcinoma within screening programs, would accord with the temporal profile observed in Europe. The homogeneity of trends in adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in birth cohort is consistent with the notion that they share a similar etiology irrespective of the differential capability of screen detection. Screening may have had at least some impact in reducing cervical adenocarcinoma incidence in several countries during the 1990s.

Suicide mortality trends in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania.

Science.gov (United States)

Strukcinskiene, B; Andersson, R; Janson, S

2011-11-01

This paper considers the suicide mortality trends from 1990-2009 in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania. Suicide and injury mortality data, plus mortality data from all causes, were used to compare the trend lines. Suicide mortality rate in young people aged 15-19 years and in all population showed a rising trend from 1990, and then a decreasing trend from 2002 year. This trend was significant exclusively in boys. When comparing suicide deaths as a percentage of injury deaths and of all deaths in the age group 15-19 years, rising trends for boys were evident, whilst in girls, there was no evidence of change. In Lithuania, from early 1990s, the frequency of suicide increased amongst adults and young people aged 15-19 years. After 2002, a decrease in deaths by suicide was observed both for the whole population and for young people aged 15-19 years. The rise and fall was obvious for boys. The reasons for different trends may have been influenced by the political and socioeconomic instability in the 1990-2002 period, and the socioeconomic stability, together with active preventive measures, from 2002. Although the consumption of modern Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increased during the same time, suicide mortality was again high during the economic crisis in 2008-2009. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

TRENDS IN FLOODS AND LOW FLOWS IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPACT OF SPATIAL CORRELATION. (R824992,R826888)

Science.gov (United States)

Trends in flood and low flows in the US were evaluated using a regional average Kendall's S trend test at two spatial scales and over two timeframes. Field significance was assessed using a bootstrap methodology to account for the observed regional cross-correlation of streamflow...

Trends in Overweight and Obesity in Czech Schoolchildren from 1998 to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamřík, Zdeněk; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Pavelka, Jan; Kalman, Michal; Sigmund, Erik

2017-07-01

Overweight and obesity in adolescents is associated with many health risks and considerable direct and indirect healthcare costs. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 11-, 13- and 15-year-old adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2014. Data from five self-reported survey rounds (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study (HBSC) were used to assess trends in overweight and obesity among Czech adolescents. The total sample consisted of 19,103 adolescents (51.2% girls). A logistic regression analysis was used to assess trends in different age and gender categories. From 1998 to 2014 a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed among boys in all age categories (11 years old 22.2% 1998 - 28.3% 2014 ; 13 years old 17.9% 1998 - 26.7% 2014 ; 15 years old 9.8% 1998 - 20.8% 2014 ) and among 15-year-old girls (6.0% 1998 - 10.9% 2014 ). None of the age and gender categories showed an overall decrease over the 16-year period. In boys, the prevalence of overweight was significantly higher with steeper negative trends compared with girls. However, stabilization in overweight rates was observed between 2010 and 2014 in all age and gender groups. Nationally representative self-reported data show a significant increase in overweight (including obesity) prevalence among children from 1998 to 2014 in the Czech Republic. The results also suggest stabilization in overweight prevalence between 2010 and 2014. Continuing research is needed to determine future trends while interventions aimed at reducing overweight and obesity in children should be implemented on different levels of public policy. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

A two-dimensional model study of past trends in global ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuebbles, D.J.; Kinnison, D.E.

1988-08-01

Emissions and atmospheric concentrations of several trace gases important to atmospheric chemistry are known to have increased substantially over recent decades. Solar flux variations and the atmospheric nuclear test series are also likely to have affected stratospheric ozone. In this study, the LLNL two-dimensional chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere has been applied to an analysis of the effects that these natural and anthropogenic influences may have had on global ozone concentrations over the last three decades. In general, model determined species distributions and the derived ozone trends agree well with published analyses of land-based and satellite-based observations. Also, the total ozone and ozone distribution trends derived from CFC and other trace gas effects have a different response with latitude than the derived trends from solar flux variations, thus providing a ''signature'' for anthropogenic effects on ozone. 24 refs., 5 figs

Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Temperature Series of Quetta, Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farhat Iqbal

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The monthly average temperature series of Quetta – Pakistan from 1950 – 2000 is examined. A straight line is fitted to the data and seasonal variation and trend in temperature for each month of the year were obtained. An overall model is constructed as large variations in the monthly slopes were observed. In order to describe the seasonal pattern and trend in temperature, corresponding to the different months, both sine/cosine waves and sine/cosine waves multiplied by the time were included in the model as independent variables. The lag-1 autocorrelation was found in the residual of the model and hence another model was fitted to the pre-whiten series that shows a good fit ( and is free from correlated residuals. Both parametric and non-parametric tests applied to each month temperature show significant trend in all months except February and March.

Institutional Repositories at Small Institutions in America: Some Current Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Nykanen, Melissa

2011-01-01

The research reported in this article was undertaken to determine the level of implementation of institutional repositories (IRs) at small institutions enrolling fewer than 10,000 students. The study analyzed quantitative and qualitative data from IRs at a number of small institutions with the aim of observing relevant patterns and trends that may…

Trends and Tensions: Australian and International Research about Starting School

Science.gov (United States)

Dockett, Sue; Perry, Bob

2013-01-01

This paper details and compares the discernible trends observed in a wide-ranging review of the recent starting school literature in Australia and beyond. More than half of the research reviewed considers children's readiness for school. This research is critiqued through a three-way view of readiness: child readiness, school readiness and support…

Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

2013-10-15

greenhouse gas emissions. Chapter 3 focuses on the energy trends and possible fuel shifts, as the special topic for this year's report. Compared to last year's report, global energy trends are described more fully, including an analysis of the main options for reducing emissions, being renewable energy, nuclear power, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage. In addition, the extent to which structural changes have caused the observed slowdown in the increase in global CO2 emissions is discussed. Finally, Chapter 4 summarises the main conclusions on trends, mitigation achievements and prospects.

High speed municipal sewage treatment in microbial fuel cell integrated with anaerobic membrane filtration system.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Y; Oa, S W

2014-01-01

A cylindrical two chambered microbial fuel cell (MFC) integrated with an anaerobic membrane filter was designed and constructed to evaluate bioelectricity generation and removal efficiency of organic substrate (glucose or domestic wastewater) depending on organic loading rates (OLRs). The MFC was continuously operated with OLRs 3.75, 5.0, 6.25, and 9.38 kg chemical oxygen demand (COD)/(m(3)·d) using glucose as a substrate, and the cathode chamber was maintained at 5-7 mg/L of dissolved oxygen. The optimal OLR was found to be 6.25 kgCOD/(m(3)·d) (hydraulic retention time (HRT) 1.9 h), and the corresponding voltage and power density averaged during the operation were 0.15 V and 13.6 mW/m(3). With OLR 6.25 kgCOD/(m(3)·d) using domestic wastewater as a substrate, the voltage and power reached to 0.13 V and 91 mW/m(3) in the air cathode system. Even though a relatively short HRT of 1.9 h was applied, stable effluent could be obtained by the membrane filtration system and the following air purging. In addition, the short HRT would provide economic benefit in terms of reduction of construction and operating costs compared with a conventional aerobic treatment process.

Kinetic study of thermophilic anaerobic digestion of solid wastes from potato processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linke, Bernd

2006-01-01

Anaerobic treatment of solid wastes from potato processing was studied in completely stirred tank reactors (CSTR) at 55 o C. Special attention was paid to the effect of increased organic loading rate (OLR) on the biogas yield in long-term experiments. Both biogas yield and CH 4 in the biogas decreased with the increase in OLR. For OLR in the range of 0.8 gl -1 d -1 -3.4 gl -1 d -1 , biogas yield and CH 4 obtained were 0.85 l g -1 -0.65 l g -1 and 58%-50%, respectively. Biogas yield y as a function of maximum biogas yield y m , reaction rate constant k and HRT are described on the basis of a mass balance in a CSTR and a first order kinetic. The value of y m can be obtained from curve fitting or a simple batch test and k results from plotting y/(y m -y) against 1/OLR from long-term experiments. In the present study values for y m and k were obtained as 0.88 l g -1 and 0.089 d -1 , respectively. The simple model equations can apply for dimensioning completely stirred tank reactors (CSTR) digesting organic wastes from food processing industries, animal waste slurries or biogas crops

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mitchell, David L; Finnegan, William

2009-01-01

Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than -2.8 W m -2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO 2 doubling (3.7 W m -2 ). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mitchell, David L; Finnegan, William, E-mail: david.mitchell@dri.ed [Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512-1095 (United States)

2009-10-15

Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than -2.8 W m{sup -2} and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO{sub 2} doubling (3.7 W m{sup -2}). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

2015-12-01

Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

Bio-hydrogen production from molasses by anaerobic fermentation in continuous stirred tank reactor

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Wei; Li, Yong-feng; Chen, Hong; Deng, Jie-xuan; Yang, Chuan-ping

2010-11-01

A study of bio-hydrogen production was performed in a continuous flow anaerobic fermentation reactor (with an available volume of 5.4 L). The continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) for bio-hydrogen production was operated under the organic loading rates (OLR) of 8-32 kg COD/m3 reactor/d (COD: chemical oxygen demand) with molasses as the substrate. The maximum hydrogen production yield of 8.19 L/d was obtained in the reactor with the OLR increased from 8 kg COD/m3 reactor/d to 24 kg COD/m3 d. However, the hydrogen production and volatile fatty acids (VFAs) drastically decreased at an OLR of 32 kg COD/m3 reactor/d. Ethanoi, acetic, butyric and propionic were the main liquid fermentation products with the percentages of 31%, 24%, 20% and 18%, which formed the mixed-type fermentation.

Strategies for the anaerobic digestion of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste: an overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartmann, H.; Ahring, Birgitte Kiær

2006-01-01

Different process strategies for anaerobic digestion of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) are reviewed weighing high-solids versus low-solids, mesophilic versus thermophilic and single-stage versus multi-stage processes. The influence of different waste characteristics...... such as composition of biodegradable fractions, C:N ratio and particle size is described. Generally, source sorting of OFMSW and a high content of food waste leads to higher biogas yields than the use of mechanically sorted OFMSW. Thermophilic processes are more efficient than mesophilic processes in terms of higher...... biogas yields at different organic loading rates (OLR). Highest biogas yields are achieved by means of wet thermophilic processes at OLRs lower than 6 kg-VS(.)m(-3) d(-1). High-solids processes appear to be relatively more efficient when OLRs higher than 6 kg-VS(.)m(-3) d(-1) are applied. Multi...

On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

OpenAIRE

Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

2015-01-01

Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Kwok, Ron; Derksen, Chris; King, Joshua

2016-07-01

Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957-2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (-4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade-1), Eureka (-4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade-1) and Alert (-4.44 ± 1.6 cm -1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ˜ 0.24-0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.

Globally Increased Crop Growth and Cropping Intensity from the Long-Term Satellite-Based Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Bin

2018-04-01

Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p impact on the crop growth trend.

Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Livingston, Michael; Callinan, Sarah; Raninen, Jonas; Pennay, Amy; Dietze, Paul M

2018-04-01

Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n = 113 279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n = 12 347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Obtaining the Greatest Scientific Benefit from Observational Platforms by Consideration of the Relative Benefit of Observations