18 CFR 348.1 - Content of application for a market power determination.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Content of application for a market power determination. 348.1 Section 348.1 Conservation of Power and Water Resources... OIL PIPELINE APPLICATIONS FOR MARKET POWER DETERMINATIONS § 348.1 Content of application for a market...

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

How much oil will the world consume in 2012? What role will OPEC play in global oil production? Will biofuels become an important part of the oil market? How will the refinery sector cope? The International Energy Agency (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report tackles these questions, adopting a perspective that goes beyond the traditional short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. Drawing on current futures curves and the investment threshold for upstream projects, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report analyses how global demand and supply balances may develop. By assessing all firmly planned upstream and downstream projects worldwide, this report forecasts supply and demand potential for crude and petroleum products over the next five years. The results provide an invaluable insight into vital issues such as surplus production capacity and product supply. An essential report for all policymakers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

The functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, G.; Siner, M.; Tijdhof, B.

2003-01-01

The title study regarding the functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis is carried out with particular reference to the strategic behaviour of oil companies. Section 2 identifies major oil supply disruptions since 1951 and describes some important changes in the market that have occurred in recent decades; Section 3 reviews the economic literature of the functioning of oil markets during disruptions and models of oil supply disruptions; Section 4 examines the response of oil markets to recent supply disruptions; Section 5 examines the incentives and scope for strategic behaviour; Section 6 considers the implications of our analysis for the design of policy responses to oil supply disruptions; Appendix A describes the background to the four recent oil supply disruptions; Appendix B discusses the relationship between spot and futures prices for a storable commodity; and Appendix C is the bibliography

Reference data on world oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This paper makes a status of the 2004 activity of worldwide oil markets: oil demand, oil supplies (OPEC and non-OPEC countries, unused production capacities), formation of oil prices (role of stockpiles, role of terminal markets, impact of dollar rate), economic data: OPEC objectives, market vision, volatility of prices, supply and demand. (J.S.)

The oil market towards 2030 - can OPEC combine high oil price with high market share

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Glomsroed, Solveig; Lindholt, Lars; Rosendahl, Knut Einar

2005-01-01

In this paper we examine within a partial equilibrium model for the oil market whether OPEC can combine high oil prices with a high market share. The oil market model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4 field categories across 13 regions. Oil companies may invest in new field development or alternatively on improved oil recovery in the decline phase of fields in production. Non-OPEC production is profit-driven, whereas OPEC meets the residual call for OPEC oil at a pre-specified oil price, while maintaining a surplus capacity. The model is run over a range of exogenous oil prices from 15 to 60 $ per barrel. Sustained high oil prices stimulate Non-OPEC production, but its remaining reserves gradually diminish despite new discoveries. Oil demand is only slightly affected by higher prices. Thus, OPEC is able to keep and eventually increase its current market share beyond 2010 even with oil prices around $30 per barrel. In fact, the model simulations indicate that an oil price around $40 is profitable for OPEC, even in the long term. Sensitivity analyses show that the most profitable price level for OPEC is generally above $35 per barrel. Even with several factors working jointly in OPEC's disfavour, the oil price seems to stick to the 30 $ level. Thus, for OPEC there is a trade-off between high prices and high market share in the short to medium term, but not in the long term. For OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear trade-off between low oil prices and low import dependence. (Author)

Challenge of the oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaidah, A M

1981-11-01

The oil market is experiencing a different environment in 1981 as demand for OPEC oil fades while customers run down their inventories. The oil-producing countries face a new challenge, but the need of consuming countries for secure oil supplies and the need of producing countries to broaden their economies and reduce dependence on a depleting resource continue. Two episodes 1973 to 1975 and late 1978 to the present, illustrate the current market situation. The impact of these episodes is the basis for recommended long-run goals that go beyond market management to the real challenge of converting oil resources into the real assets of economic development. (DCK)

Oil price stability and free markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamani, A.Z.

1992-01-01

The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

Development of Danish wind power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Niels I.

2004-01-01

The modern phase of Danish wind power started after the oil crisis in 1973. Based on long traditions of Danish wind power dating back to the beginning of the century a new commercial phase was initiated by small industrial entrepreneurs with support by the Danish government, the Danish Academy of Technical Sciences and green organizations. During the eighties technological development resulted in increased cost efficiency, while the investment subsidies from the state were gradually phased out. Conflicts between utilities and wind power producers over tariffs and the costs of grid connections, then slowed down the penetration of wind power on the Danish market. In addition, many local municipalities were setting up administrative barriers for wind turbines. These barriers were removed by government intervention in the early nineties when favourable feed-in tariffs were introduced together with easy access to the grid, simple procedures for construction allowances and priority to green electricity. As a result wind power was booming in the Danish home market and Danish turbines achieved a global market share of around 50%. After a change of government in December 2001, however the Danish home market for wind power has more or less collapsed. (Author)

How equity markets view heavy oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janisch, M.L.

2001-01-01

A review of heavy oil economics was presented in this power point presentation with particular focus on investor motivation, the importance of heavy oil, and an outlook on commodity price for oil and natural gas. Heavy oil from oil sands is playing a major role on the Canadian domestic production front as well as globally. Almost all senior Canadian producers have a major heavy oil project in the works. Oil prices are forecasted to remain strong, but a more bullish outlook is expected for natural gas prices for both the short and long term. Natural gas drilling has increased, but the number of natural gas wells as a percentage of total wells has decreased. Recent Canadian drilling activity has placed more emphasis on crude oil production which has contributed to the lower overall natural gas drilling success rate. It was shown that infrastructure issues regarding tankers, refining capacity (at or near capacity) will be the major factor affecting the availability of crude products to market. It was also shown that heavy oil differentials have increased substantially, which could be a potential issue if oil prices begin to weaken. 1 tab., 12 figs

Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gong Jinshuang

2006-01-01

@@ Major features of China's oil market in 2005 China's oil market is changing under the influence of domestic economy and the international oil market, witnessing different characteristics from time to time.

Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Dorozhkina

2006-03-01

Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

Linkages between the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Didziulis, V.S.

1990-01-01

To understand the crude oil price determination process it is necessary to extend the analysis beyond the markets for petroleum. Crude oil prices are determined in two closely related markets: the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products. An econometric-linear programming model was developed to capture the linkages between the markets for crude oil and refined products. In the LP refiners maximize profits given crude oil supplies, refining capacities, and prices of refined products. The objective function is profit maximization net of crude oil prices. The shadow price on crude oil gives the netback price. Refined product prices are obtained from the econometric models. The model covers the free world divided in five regions. The model is used to analyze the impacts on the markets of policies that affect crude oil supplies, the demands for refined products, and the refining industry. For each scenario analyzed the demand for crude oil is derived from the equilibrium conditions in the markets for products. The demand curve is confronted with a supply curve which maximizes revenues providing an equilibrium solution for both crude oil and product markets. The model also captures crude oil price differentials by quality. The results show that the demands for crude oil are different across regions due to the structure of the refining industries and the characteristics of the demands for refined products. Changes in the demands for products have a larger impact on the markets than changes in the refining industry. Since markets for refined products and crude oil are interrelated they can't be analyzed individually if an accurate and complete assessment of a policy is to be made. Changes in only one product market in one region affect the other product markets and the prices of crude oil

Growing markets to sustain oil sands development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, T.H.

2003-01-01

The utilization of Alberta bitumen for the clean fuels market depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production in Western Canada. Several issues pose a challenge to the oil sands processing industry. The producers' market is affected by crude oil prices, market expansion options, diluent availability/cost, supply cost competitiveness, and regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. A brief review of markets for Canadian crude oil, including synthetic crude, was provided. The share of the Midwest market by Alberta must be retained and increased. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. To reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California, new pipeline capacity would be required. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. tabs., figs

Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitan Herraiz, Alvaro; Rodriguez Monroy, Carlos

2009-01-01

Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased. In the period considered (August 2006-July 2008), monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium variations (decreasing with variance of spot prices during delivery period and increasing with skewness of spot prices during delivery period). Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. (author)

Substituting oil by electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lichtenberg, H.

1981-01-01

Parting from the development of primary energy use the author refers to the latest investigations and results presented on the 1980 World Energy Conference and with special regard to oil points out the threatening exhaustion of fossil energy resources. Maintaining the economic structure of the Federal Republic of Germany implies an orientation away from oil. Due to its flexible application technology and quasi-inexhaustible energy resources electric power may substantially contribute to oil substitution which as a matter of fact is of particular interest in connection with the heat market. Coal alone cannot substitute both oil and nuclear energy. Thus, the above postulates the use of the latter. Leaving nuclear energy inactive today will effect an increase in the demand for oil the negative consequences of which would weight heavily upon the anyhow unbalanced import/export ratio of the Federal Republic of Germany. (orig.) [de

Market potential for Canadian crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heath, M.; Fisher, L.; Golosinski, D.; Luthin, A.; Gill, L.; Raggett, C.

1997-01-01

Future key markets for Canadian crude were evaluated, and probable flow volumes and prices were identified. Key concerns of market participants such as pricing, alternative crude sources, pipeline tariffs and crude quality, were examined. An overview of the competition faced by Canadian crude supply in global markets was presented. World crude oil supply and demand was discussed. US and Canadian crude oil supply (2000 to 2010), refinery demand for light and heavy crudes, existing future crude oil and refined product pipeline infrastructure, and pricing implications of changing crude oil flows were analyzed. The general conclusion was that the US market will continue to provide growing markets for Canadian crude oil, and that the Canadian supply to fulfill increased export requirements will be available due to the combined effects of increasing heavy crude supply, growing production from the east coast offshore, and recent and ongoing pipeline expansions and additions. 20 refs., 64 tabs., 42 figs

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-15

Why have oil prices hit US$140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets? The Medium-Term Oil Market Report (now in its third year) published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report. This year's edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks. An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.

Market opportunities and challenges for oil sands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, T.H.

2004-01-01

The use of Alberta bitumen as a clean fuel depends on upgrading, transportation, and refining processes. Forecasts show that oil sands production, which includes synthetic crude oil (SCO), will surpass declining conventional production from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The challenges facing the oils sands processing industry include: crude oil prices which affect the producer's market; market expansion options; diluent availability/cost; supply cost competitiveness; and, regional processing. The common market issues include light/heavy crude prices, oil sands crude qualities, prices of oil sands crudes, pipeline infrastructure, and competitive supplies. The issues facing the refiners are: refining margins, security of crude supply, refined product quality, and competitive product supply. It was noted that Alberta must retain or increase its share of the Midwest market. The market expansion options were reviewed for both downstream (refining) and upstream (upgrading) operations. New pipeline capacity is needed to reach more distant markets such as Southern Midwest, Washington, and California. The market is nearly saturated for Canada's heavy oil supply. More upgrading will be required as bitumen production increases. Market growth is still possible for Canada's SCO but according to forecasts, the market could also become saturated. To increase demand and allow supplies to grow, SCO prices may fall below light crude prices. It was noted that a balance must be achieved in order for producers to increase production and for refiner/upgraders to expand their conversion capacity. 13 figs

Update on Spain's oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitaker, D.; Gutierrez, I.

1994-01-01

Since Spain's entry into the European Community a liberalisation of the oil industry has occurred culminating in two oil sector reform laws passed in 1992. While competition has increased, a return to the free-market policies which held sway before 1927 has not happened. Rather, three large companies dominate the Spanish oil market, with continuing input from government towards liberalization, if somewhat slowly. This paper describes recent changes and examines factors which limit liberalization policies. (UK)

International oil market: instability and restructuring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayoub, A

1988-12-01

The three phenomena which today dominate the international oil market are: 1. the downward price trend since 1981 and the uncertainty about medium and long term price evolution; 2. chronic price instability in the short term; 3. the trend toward new forms of vertical integration and concentration which are now stabilizing a market confronted by a weakening OPEC and free markets which are volatile. The new market restructuring the present period for the international oil sector as a transition period, with the following characteristics: 1. an evident convergence in the motivations of the major oil companies and of a number of OPEC countries, to see a certain stability restored in the oil market based on vertical integration and concentration; 2. markets cannot be stabilized by political agreements between the states, but only by reciprocal financial implications and participations between companies according to the rules of the business world; 3. the market as a whole will still continue for a certain time to be governed by the OPEC-free market pair, with alternating domination by one or the other according to the economic situation. Nevertheless, the longer the market continues to be unstable, the more the trend toward concentration and integration will intensify.

Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh T.

2009-01-01

This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

Marketing BTUs: Gas, electricity lead oil in innovation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krapels, E.N.

1996-01-01

The transformation in relations between energy providers and users--powered by reform of electric utilities and by continuation of natural gas deregulation--is challenging several fundamental precepts of how oil companies managed their deregulation. In the wake of the price decontrol completed by the Reagan administration in 1981, oil companies (1) retreated from national business structures, (2) focused on limited range core businesses, and (3) provided minimal oil price risk management services for their customers. By contrast, the electric and natural gas industry is consolidating for the purpose of playing a role in ever-larger markets, diversifying its products and services, and providing innovative hedging instruments to itself as well as its customers. From Enron, one can purchase physical and paper energy, delivered in whatever form desired, nationwide and internationally, with or without mechanisms to manage price risk. What will impede the newly integrated energy companies--which are composite electric plus natural gas firms--from also delivering products and services now rendered by the oil companies? Could utilities organize gasoline consumers better than oil companies? If the Price Club can sell gasoline at 10 cents below market, why can't the new energy companies do so? The paper discusses what consumers want, procurement and costs, and innovations and lessons

World oil market simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldwin, N.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

2009-01-01

This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

2011-01-15

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

2011-01-01

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012: Market Trends and Projections to 2017

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown. Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows. At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

Empirical evaluation of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Álvaro Capitán Herráiz

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Market efficiency is analysed for the Iberian Power Futures Market and other European Power Markets, as well as other fuel markets through evaluation of ex-post Forward Risk Premium. The equilibrium price from compulsory call auctions for distribution companies within the framework of the Iberian Power Futures Market is not optimal for remuneration purposes as it seems to be slightly upward biased, though such a premium is not significant (only around 2% above the average of Settlement Prices. In the period considered (August 2006 to September 2008, monthly futures contracts behave similarly to quarterly contracts. Average risk premia have been positive in power and natural gas markets but negative in oil and coal markets. Different hypotheses are tested regarding increasing volatility with maturity and regarding Forward Risk Premium correlations (negative with variance of spot prices during delivery period and positive with skewness of spot prices during delivery period. Enlarged data sets are recommended for stronger test results. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. Regarding the emerging Iberian Power Futures Market, price efficiency is improved with market development and with further integration of European Regional Power Markets.

Economic and political power relationships and price formation in strategic materials markets. The example of oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mortazavi, M.

1998-01-01

The more and more generalized substitution of coordination trading mechanisms by administrated regulation forms on the world petroleum scene has led some authors to sustain the idea that oil prices can be durably fixed on a competitive market, like any ordinary good. By analysing the limits of the Hotellinian optimization approach, this work tries to demonstrate that: conformably to a theoretical trend initiated by the works of P.H. Frankel, integration and concentration are two elements indispensable to the proper operation of the petroleum domain. A non-organized market leads to a prices fight and to the reinforcement of the main actors. It demonstrates also that the interdependence between economy and politics has always been an important factor in prices making. The history of petroleum political economics has been and remains largely connected to the power relations established between governments for the share of profits. This work stresses on the necessity of the implementation by the main actors of a back-to-integration and cooperation strategy to stabilize the market and the prices and to make possible the implementation of energy mastery and environment protection policies. On the other hand, the examination of the present day situation, characterized by a very unequal share of profits and by an upstream weakness of prices and investments, reveals the existence of tension factors susceptible to start up a new oil crisis in the coming years. (J.S.)

Changes in the world market in oil and oil refinements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ristik, Julija

1996-01-01

Since 1980's the world market for crude oil and oil products has faced significant changes that are going to have a grate influence on the supply and consumption of crude oil derivatives in Macedonia. The knowledge of these changes would have a grate contribution in planning the future development of this part of the energetic system of Macedonia. The purpose of this paper (which is a short version of the introductory report for the ZEMAK session with a theme 'Energetic policy and development of energetics in Macedonia') is to present the actual situation on the market for crude oil products, as well as to give the main factors that would have influence on this market in the future. (author). 4 refs., 3 ills

Russian oil goes to market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandelaki, T.L.; Tankayev, R.U.

1997-01-01

In 1996, Russia retained its place as the world's third largest producer of oil and gas condensate after Saudi Arabia and the USA. Data are provided on Russia's oil sales to its domestic market, to the former Soviet Union and to the rest of the world. These are accompanied by a commentary on Russia's world-wide market, refining in Russia, transportation costs of crude from the generally remote areas where it is produced and price ranges in the various market segments. (7 tables) (UK)

Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

2011-01-01

This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

Special report: EC oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

A European Commission report on the EC's oil market has conceded that the Community will not meet its official objective of reducing oil's share of energy consumption to 40% by 1995. The paper, a 'Communication' to the European Council entitled ''The Oil Market and the Refining Industry in the Community: Recent Developments and Prospects'' says oil will ''continue to account for a major share - of the order of 45% -of the Community's energy consumption'' up to the year 2000. Nonetheless, the report's authors insist the Commission has proposed ''a number of measures'' which could reduce the potential consumption of fossil fuels and help limit CO2 emissions. The report confirms that though lower in 1990 than 1980 at 530mt, oil demand picked up in the second half of the 1980s, reflecting world trends. Little impression has been made on the proportion of the Community's crude supply that is imported. However, one area where the report did find energy objectives successes was that of diversifying sources of crude oil supply. A major source of concern for the Commission at one stage in the second half of the 1980s was the possibility of massive imports of finished oil products from refineries in the oil producing countries. However, the fact that this threat did not materialise is taken as a vindication of the Commission's assessment in previous analyses that ''an open Community market should be maintained''. (author)

Ownership structure and market power in the nordic power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amundsen, E.S.; Bergman, L.

1999-01-01

The opening of Nord Pool in 1996 seriously constrained the power companies' ability to exercise market power within their national borders. Currently there is an integration process going on among the power companies in the Nord Pool area. It manifest itself in terms of take-over and reciprocal acquisition of shares in the power companies - nationally and abroad. This process may undo what the introduction of the common power market achieved in curtailing market power. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects on market power of increased cross- ownership in the Nordic power market. (au)

Dynamics of world oil crops market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Knežević Marija

2012-01-01

Full Text Available According to the harvested area, oil crops are the second most important crops after cereals. Soybean is the most important oil crop in terms of production and trade of oilseeds and meals, and second most important in terms of production and trade of vegetable oils after palm oil. Dynamics of prices of derived oil crop products in the international market is conditioned by the relationship between supply and demand in the overall market of oil crops. The substitution of animal fats with vegetable oils in human nutrition, the expansion of biodiesel industry and intensification of livestock production have led to increased demand for oil crops. The objective of this paper was to identify trends in production, consumption and trade of soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower and their derived products.

Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akinnusi, Ayo

1994-01-01

This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

Green Certificates and Market Power on the Nordic Power Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergman, Lars; Amundsen, Eirik S

2007-06-01

In Sweden a market for Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) was introduced in 2003. The purpose was to stimulate investments in electricity generation based on renewable energy sources without using direct governmental subsidies to renewable energy. More precisely the aim is to create a market where different types of renewable electricity can compete on equal terms, thus relieving governments and public agencies from being directly involved in power industry investment decisions. The purpose of this study is to elucidate under which circumstances, how, and to what extent market power in the TGC market can be used to affect the entire electricity market. There are basically two reasons for being concerned with market power in TGC markets. The first is the fact that the industry average cost curve for 'green' electricity tends to be upward sloping. This is because the cost of wind power, the main source of green electricity, depends on the location of the power plants, and that the availability of first rate sites that do not involve sizable investments in new transmission and network infrastructure, is limited. The situation is similar for environmentally friendly hydro power, and, to some extent, for other types of 'green' electricity. Thus, given the state of technology and an upper cost limit, there is a maximum amount of 'green' electricity that can be produced within a country. This means that some generators, by getting access to the suitable sites, will become dominating producers of 'green' electricity and thus may be able to exercise market power in the TGC market. The second reason for being concerned with market power in a TGC market is that, as a result of the percentage requirement, the withdrawal of a given number of TGCs from the market forces a much larger reduction of electricity consumption. Thus relatively modest exercise of market power in the TGC market may have a significant impact on the price of electricity and the allocation of resources in

The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prices,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges%The Chinese Olive Oil Market Today Import Prioes,Market Segments, Opportunities and Challenges

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Mateo Radnic

2011-01-01

@@ Ⅰ .EDIBLE OIL CONSUMPTION IN CHINA According to the data of Edible Oil Consumption in China,this market has constantly growth over the last years, doublingits size in only 8 years.For the past year 2010, the market sizereaches over 29 thousand tons.

Will cross-ownership reestablish market power in the Nordic power market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amundsen, Eirik S.; Bergman, Lars

2000-01-01

The integration of the power markets in Norway and Sweden in 1996 significantly constrained the major power companies' ability to exercise market power within their national borders. In recent years, however, mergers and reciprocal acquisition of shares have reduced the number of independent players on the Norwegian-Swedish power market. The aim of this paper is to explore to what extent increasing cross-ownership among major power companies in Norway and Sweden might re-establish the market power that was lost when the two national power markets were integrated. The analysis is based on a numerical model, assuming Cournot quantity setting behaviour, of the Norwegian-Swedish power market. The simulation results suggest that partial ownership relations between major generators and other power-producing firms tend to increase horizontal market power and thus the market price of electricity. (author)

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Creti, Anna; Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled

2014-01-01

The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters' markets than in the importers' ones. - Highlights: • A new time-varying measure for the stock markets and oil price relationship in different horizons. • We propose a new empirical methodology: multivariate frequency approach. • We propose a comparison between oil importing and exporting countries. • We show that oil is not always countercyclical with respect to stock markets. • When high oil prices originate from supply shocks, oil is countercyclical with stock markets

European gas oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Long, D.

1991-04-01

The developments over the past five years of the bulk markets for gas oil in Europe are examined using advanced econometric techniques to study the related issues of pricing efficiency and hedge efficiency. The study attempts to preserve the fluctuations of the actual data as these provide insights into the process of price discovery. The markets studied include the spot, forward and futures markets and looks for evidence of differentiated markets. (UK)

Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enav, Peter

1998-09-01

This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

Wind power and market power in competitive markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twomey, Paul; Neuhoff, Karsten

2010-01-01

Average market prices for intermittent generation technologies are lower than for conventional generation. This has a technical reason but can be exaggerated in the presence of market power. When there is much wind smaller amounts of conventional generation technologies are required, and prices are lower, while at times of little wind prices are higher. This effect reflects the value of different generation technologies to the system. But under conditions of market power, conventional generators with market power can further depress the prices if they have to buy back energy at times of large wind output and can increase prices if they have to sell additional power at times of little wind output. This greatly exaggerates the effect. Forward contracting does not reduce the effect. An important consequence is that allowing market power profit margins as a support mechanism for generation capacity investment is not a technologically neutral policy.

The oil markets: A vision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miras Salamanca, P.

2007-01-01

Although oil markets show high levels of volatility, governments and institutions are much more concern with the problem of security of supply. Fundamental drivers of these markets vary from global questions (such as the balance between world supply and demand or the geopolitical situation), to national and local issues (regulation, industry structure and the cost chain in a given market). Global factors account for the lions share of the final price. Therefore, price variations of oil products tend to be similar in different environment. However, regulators and competition watchdogs should put special attention to supervise smaller areas, where specific problems could occur. (Author)

Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-06-29

This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014? Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment - in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover. The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.

Power reserves in the end-user market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Livik, K.; Mo, B.

1994-10-01

Based on a detailed modelling of the end-user electric power market it is evaluated how a selection of energy conservation efforts will affect Norway's system curve for the day of maximum power load. The analysis given in this report is based on empiric load data and statistical analyses of how changing simultaneity in power consumption by the end-users contribute to an aggregated effect on the maximum power of the system. The computer code PMAX was used for the simulation. The following efforts are considered: controlling water heaters in the housing sector, replacing electricity by oil for heating in the housing sector and in the service sector, implementation of temperature control with reduced temperature at night/day in the housing and service sectors, energy conservation in the service sector, heat recovery in the service sector. Transition from electricity to oil in heating is the effort which most strongly affects the energy consumption and power load on the day of peak power load. The discussion excludes energy-intensive industries, pumps and boilers. 11 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs

Utility residual fuel oil market conditions: An update

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, H.A. Jr.

1992-01-01

Planning for residual fuel oil usage and management remains an important part of the generation fuel planning and management function for many utilities. EPRI's Utility Planning Methods Center has maintained its analytical overview of the fuel oil markets as part of its overall fuel planning and management research program. This overview provides an update of recent fuel oil market directions. Several key events of the past year have had important implications for residual fuel oil markets. The key events have been the changes brought about by the Persian Gulf War and its aftermath, as well as continuing environmental policy developments. The Persian Gulf conflict has created renewed interest in reducing fuel oil use by utilities as part of an overall reduction in oil imports. The policy analysis performed to date has generally failed to properly evaluate utility industry capability. The Persian Gulf conflict has also resulted in an important change in the structure of international oil markets. The result of this policy-based change is likely to be a shift in oil pricing strategy. Finally, continued change in environmental requirements is continuing to shift utility residual oil requirements, but is also changing the nature of the US resid market itself

Power marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sioshansi, F.P.; Altman, A.M.

1998-01-01

One of the most significant developments in the US electric power industry in recent years has been the phenomenal growth of power marketing. What was barely a blimp on the radar screen in 1992 has turned out to be a jumbo jet. This article explains what is power marketing who are power marketers, what role play these players and what will be their longer-term impact on the traditional industry [it

Joint ventures and concentrations in oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabarelli, D.

1996-01-01

Many are the joint ventures taken during last year by the oil companies as a move towards the ever existing rules of the oil market: integration, economies of scale and reduction of competitive market uncertainty. This article discusses some of the most interesting points of the recent events and the initiatives in the Italian market

Market brief : the oil and gas market in Bolivia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-03-01

This report presents a market overview of the oil and gas sector in Bolivia and describes the potential for Canadian suppliers to enter into joint ventures to establish local production facilities and transfer technology expertise. Bolivia has an estimated 54.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 440.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves. The main hope for future economic growth in Bolivia hinges on increasing natural gas exports. Opportunities for Canadian companies exist in exploration, production and pipeline construction. There is also a demand for drilling machinery equipment, pipeline components and services for the expansion of the proposed Bolivia-Brazil pipeline. The largest energy company in Bolivia is Repsol YPF which operates through its subsidiary Empress Petrolera Andina. The largest end-users of oil and gas equipment and services include domestic upstream operators and international oil majors and international exploration and production companies. This report describes the key factors shaping market growth along with the competitive environment, local capabilities, international competition and the Canadian position. Considerations for market-entry in Bolivia were also outlined.

Construction of power plants to have oil for a long term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freiberger, S.; Barthelt, K.

1980-01-01

Most of our oil is literally burnt out ; therefore there should be a search for possibilities especially in the field of heat production to lessen our dependence on oil. Coal- and nuclear power plants, electric heat pumps and district heating could unburden the oil market in a shorter term than all other substitution technologies. This way, oil could be saved for applications where it is difficult to be replaced, e.g. in the road traffic. (orig.) [de

How does market concern derived from the Internet affect oil prices?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Jian-Feng; Ji, Qiang

2013-01-01

Highlights: • The impact of market concern derived from the Web on oil volatility is analysed. • It has an equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern. • The short-run market concerns have an asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. • The Internet can exaggerate the impact of information shocks on oil price. - Abstract: With the acceleration of oil marketisation and the rapid development of electronic information carriers, external information shocks can be easily and quickly transmitted to the oil market through the Internet. This paper analyses the impact of short- and long-run market concerns, derived from search query volumes in Google for different domains around the oil market on oil volatility using co-integration and the modified EGARCH model. Empirical results suggest there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between oil prices and long-run market concern for oil prices and oil demand. The short-run market concerns for the 2008 financial crisis and the Libyan war convulsion have a significant and asymmetric influence on oil price volatility. This indicates that market concern transmitted through the Internet can strengthen the linkage between oil price changes and external events by influencing the expectation of market traders, and to some extent it can exaggerate the impact of nonfundamental information shocks

Oil and gas market developments in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaygusuz, K.

2003-01-01

Turkey's strategic location makes it a natural 'energy bridge' between major oil and gas producing areas in the Middle East and Caspian Sea regions on one hand and consumer markets in Europe on the other. Oil consumption has increased in recent years in Turkey, and this trend is expected to continue, with growth of 2-3% annually in coming years. The annual oil consumption of the country is around 31.3 million tons, while 83% of total consumption is supplied from imports and only 17% is supplied from indigenous production. Oil provides around 43% of Turkey's total energy requirements, but its share is declining (as the share of natural gas rises). On the other hand, due to diversification efforts of energy sources, use of natural gas was newly introduced into the Turkish economy in 1987 and has been growing rapidly. Turkey's natural gas reserves seem limited and current gas production in the country meets 2.8% of domestic consumption requirements. The annual natural gas consumption of Turkey is around 14.7 billion m 3 and is assumed to increase by 12% per annum. Turkish natural gas use is projected to increase dramatically in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be industry and power plants. Turkey has chosen natural gas as the preferred fuel for the massive amount of new power plant capacity to be added in coming years. (Author)

The interdependence among oil markets: Any discernible patterns?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osayimwese, I.

1992-01-01

A study is presented which tests a hypothesis about co-movement of oil prices in all regions, implying that markets are interdependent. The hypothesis is tested against the background of the structural changes that occurred in the oil industry during the last 20 years, using the concept of cointegration. These changes occurred mainly in response to the oil price hikes in the 1970s and the price collapse in 1986. Refinery upgrading and increased flexibility in buying and selling crude oil and products, as well as the continuing articulation of oil markets with a variety of specific instruments, are key elements of the transformation during the past 15-20 years. A framework for modelling market interdependence via three approaches is outlined, focusing on the approach that consists of exploring the univariate time-series characteristics of two or more random variables with a view to verifying that the variables tend to move together in the long term. To examine the empirical evidence for market interdependence, monthly observations on crude and product prices from three major spot markets are used. Cointegration tests show that spot and futures market prices for gas, oil and crudes move closely together in the long run. In particular, the key role played by price differences rather than absolute price levels as a market barometer is confirmed. A test of the law of one price between two markets for the same crude or product generally confirms the co-movement of prices. It is concluded that, globally, oil markets are integrated and indeed constitute one great pool. 29 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

Market power monitoring and mitigation in the US wholesale power markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helman, Udi [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 888 First Street, N.E., Washington, DC 20426 (United States)

2006-05-15

Under current statutory requirements, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) must ensure that prices in US wholesale power markets are 'just and reasonable'. This has been interpreted by the agency and the courts as requiring the monitoring and mitigation of undue market power. This paper focuses on generation market power. Prior to electricity sector restructuring, wholesale bilateral power trading took place among vertically integrated monopoly utilities trading at the margin or between small independent producers and the utilities. Under those conditions, the authorization of trading at market prices, called 'market-based rates', required only that the generation supplier pass a simple market share screen for market power. As restructuring unfolded, and market conditions changed, there has been a steady evolution in FERC's market power mitigation rules, encompassing (a) changes in the market power assessment required for granting market-based rates and related methods for merger approval, and (b) development and refinement of new techniques for screening and mitigating offers into the organized day-ahead and real-time markets operated by Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs). This paper reviews these changes to date, as FERC continues to clarify its approved rules and procedures. It also examines recent methods for quantitative market power analysis that could augment current procedures or supplant them, as found appropriate. (author)

Medium-Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-06-16

Oil and gas markets have been marked by an increased divergence in recent months. On the one hand, oil market developments have generated an unpleasant sense of deja vu: rapid demand growth in emerging markets eclipsed sluggish supply growth to push prices higher even before the conflict in Libya tightened supplies still further. Oil prices around $100/bbl are weighing down on an already-fragile macroeconomic and financial situation in the OECD, pressuring national budgets in the non-OECD and causing price inflation of other commodities, as well as political concerns about speculation. There is an uncanny resemblance to the first half of 2008. On the other hand, in the world of natural gas an amazing disconnect has developed as demand recovered to well above pre-financial-crisis levels in most major regions. Gas markets have tightened in Europe and Asia, where prices are about twice the level seen in the United States, as the unconventional gas revolution is in full swing. From the upstream implications of the Arab Spring to the macroeconomic consequences of the eurozone crisis, energy markets are experiencing one of the most uncertain periods in decades. This publication provides a comprehensive outlook for oil and gas fundamentals through 2016. The oil market analysis covers demand developments on a product-by-product and key-sector basis, as well as a detailed bottom-up assessment of upstream and refinery investments, trade flows, oil products supply and OPEC spare capacity. The gas market analysis offers a region-by-region assessment of demand and production, infrastructure investment, price developments and prospects for unconventional gas. It also examines the globalising LNG trade.

The oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durousset, M.

1999-01-01

This document presents todays economical and strategic realities of the oil market. According to the author, petroleum will remain a vital energy source essentially supplied by the Middle-East with strong increasing and decreasing demand changes. (J.S.)

The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Tu, Xiaohua

2016-01-01

This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigated the effect of oil price shocks on China’s metal markets. • The oil price shocks had significant impacts on China's metal markets • The oil price shocks on China's metal markets were symmetric. • Copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks than aluminum.

Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

Science.gov (United States)

Niere, H. M.

2015-01-01

The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

Green power: A renewable energy resources marketing plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, R.C.

1997-01-01

Green power is electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as power generated from the sun, the wind, the heat of the earth, and biomass. Green pricing is the marketing strategy to sell green power to customers who voluntarily pay a premium for it. Green pricing is evolving from the deregulation of the electric industry, the need for clean air, reflected in part as concern over global warming, and technology advances. The goal of the renewable energy marketing plan is to generate enough revenues for a utility to fund power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy developers or construct its own renewable facilities. Long-term, fixed price PPAs enable developers to obtain financing to construct new facilities, sometimes taking technological risks which a utility might not take otherwise. The marketing plan is built around different rate premiums for different categories of ratepayers, volunteer customer participation, customer participation recognition, and budget allocations between project costs and power marketing costs. Green prices are higher than those for conventional sources, particularly prices from natural gas fired plants. Natural gas is abundant relative to oil in price per British thermal unit (Btu). Green pricing can help bridge the gap between the current oversupply of gas and the time, not far off, when all petroleum prices will exceed those for renewable energy. The rapid implementation of green pricing is important. New marketing programs will bolster the growing demand for renewable energy evidenced in many national surveys thus decreasing the consumption of power now generated by burning hydrocarbons. This paper sets forth a framework to implement a green power marketing plan for renewable energy developers and utilities working together

Expanding U.S. markets for Canadian crude oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heath, M.; Angevine, G.; Chan, K.; Renne, G.; Stariha, J.; MacKay, E.

1993-01-01

The quantities and types of Canadian, U.S. and competing foreign crudes flowing into U.S. market regions and the potential to retain and/or expand Canadian crude oil sales in each of those markets, was studied. The various pipeline system expansion/construction proposals were reviewed. Findings of the study with respect to prospects for crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were presented. Opportunities and constraints with regard to the potential for incremental crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were detailed. The study concluded that there was a substantial market in the U.S. for incremental sales of Canadian crudes. Most of the refineries in the U.S. market regions were more flexible in terms of their crude diet than they were before the rationalization and restructuring of the industry began. The market for crude oil in the U.S. was shown to be one of the most competitive in the world and the most volatile. The study also revealed that there were risks associated with large additions to the capacity to ship crude oil by pipeline from Western Canada, given the uncertainties surrounding future supply. 4 refs., figs., tabs

Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

2016-11-01

Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Papatulica

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

Canadian oil sands : supply and potential for market growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crandall, G.

2004-01-01

Canadian oil sands recoverable reserves rank second only to Saudi Arabia and present enormous potential, particularly through technological gains. This paper discussed the market potential for oil sands both globally and in North America. It was estimated that oil sands production would eventually surpass declining conventional production, increasing from 42 per cent of Western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. Recoverable reserves were an estimated 174 billion barrels, with cumulative production at 4 billion barrels between 1967 to 2003. Statistics of U.S. and Canadian markets for crude oil were presented to the year 2020. A flow chart of oil sands products and market outlets was presented, as well as details of existing and potential markets for Canadian crude oil. Oil sands product dispositions were outlined, with the prediction that Asia may emerge as an incremental market. World crude oil production statistics were presented by type. World residual supply and demand estimates were presented, including details of conversion capacity and requirements for residual processing capacity in refineries and field upgraders. American refinery feedstocks were presented by type, with the identification of an increase in heavy crude runs. It was noted that recent pricing provided a strong incentive to add refining conversion capacity to process heavy oil. An outline of a study completed for the Alberta government and industry was presented, in which upgrading to light synthetic crude was determined as a base case. The value added to process bitumen beyond upgrading was discussed in relation to the upgrading of American refineries to process bitumen blends and synthetic crude. Potential cases for upgrading bitumen were presented, along with a comparison of capital costs. An overall economic comparison of projects was provided. Various measures to maximize markets for oil sands products in Alberta were presented. It was suggested that U.S. markets should absorb more new

Oil seed marketing prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceroni, G.

1992-01-01

With its 100 million tonnes annual production, the American continent is by far the world's biggest producer of oil seed, followed by Asia - 52 million, and Europe - 27 million tonnes. The Italian and European Communities have the farming capacity to double their production, but international agreements currently prohibit such initiatives. After first providing a panorama of the world oil seed market, this paper discusses new reforms in European Communities internal agricultural policies which currently limit production. These reforms, intended to encourage the production of oil seed for use as an ecological automotive fuel alternative, call for an obligatory set-aside of 15% of producing farm-land in exchange for the compensatory removal of oil seed production limits

Economic crisis and oil market balances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duquesnoy, S.; Rozenberg, J.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2011-01-01

One might intuitively think that an economic crisis would at least relieve the pressure on oil supply since it slows energy demand. From the model of the oil market DYSMO, we show that an economic crisis may on the contrary increase tension, as it postpones investment in oil supply. (authors)

Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anindya Sen

2003-01-01

There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

Vicissitudes in the Hong Kong oil market, 1980-97

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chow, L.-H.

2000-01-01

Hong Kong, devoid of natural resources, has to import all the energy it consumes. Up to 1981, oil accounted for almost 100 per cent of the total primary energy requirement, of which about 59 per cent was used to generate electricity. Starting in 1982, the electricity sector switched to coal generation, leading to plummeting oil consumption. The conversion process was essentially completed by 1988. Local sales of oil products declined from 5.790 million kilolitres in 1981 to 3.470m kl in 1987, but climbed back to 5.157m kl in 1997; oil consumption stagnated between 1981 and 1997. This paper analyses the fluctuations in oil consumption during the period, covering use by the utility and non-utility sectors. Next, it deals with consumption of, and the factors involved in, the six major oil products, i.e. fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene and jet fuel. Interestingly, bunker sales, including air and sea transport, rose noticeably during these years, partly offsetting the effect of slumping oil sales to the power plants and helping boost total oil demand in the 1990s. Lastly, a glimpse into the future of the Hong Kong oil market is taken. (author)

OIL PRICES AND THE KUWAITI AND THE SAUDI STOCK MARKETS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samih Antoine Azar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the impact of oil price shocks on the stock markets of the two biggest and most liquid GCC equity markets, those of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that the two stock markets react similarly to oil price shocks. Actually the results show heterogeneity in responses. While there is prima facie evidence that both stock markets are influenced positively and linearly by oil price shocks, this evidence disappears when additional variables are added to the regressions. With the larger specification oil price shocks do not impact, neither linearly or non-linearly, Kuwaiti stock markets. By contrast Saudi markets react non-linearly to both oil price shocks and shocks in the US S&P 500. The only common feature for both equity markets is the positive relation with the shocks in the US S&P 500.

Asian-Pacific markets : a new strategy for Alberta oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laureshen, C.J.; Du Plessis, D.; Xu, C.M.; Chung, K.H.

2004-01-01

Alberta's oil sands contain an estimated crude bitumen-in-place of nearly 2.5 trillion barrels. Production has increased to the point where it has overtaken non-conventional sources, and is expected to reach more than 2 million barrels per day by 2012, and over 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Although it is assumed that most of this production will be marketed in the United States, the industry is facing many constraints that could affect potential crude oil production and existing market share. The Asian-Pacific region is an obvious new market for Canadian heavy oil and bitumen due to an increasing demand for petroleum products in that region and the potential for reaching the California market with the same pipeline. This paper examined the following three criteria that will determine the success of any initiative to move Canadian crude oil to Asian-Pacific markets: (1) a sustainable supply of crude from Alberta; a pipeline to transport the crude to a deepwater port on the west coast; and, a guaranteed market at the other end. The feasibility of marketing Alberta heavy oil and bitumen to Asia was also discussed. 12 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

Crude oil market report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1985-01-01

Falling demand for refined products and an excess of production capacity are driving world oil prices down further. Competitive price cutting, notably by Mexico, Britain, and the Soviet Union, has left Saudi Arabia the only guardian of a costly pricing discipline in terms of crude oil sales. The current crisis is limited to the producers of crude oil. Refineries are now deciding what, where, and how to buy crude in order to meet the requirements of a slack market place. Saudi Arabia could precipitate a price collapse below $20 per barrel by increasing production volume, but that seems unlikely. 1 figure, 2 tables.

Green certificates and market power in the Nordic power market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amundsen, Eirik S; Bergman, Lars

2012-01-01

principles and a numerical model based on that to investigate the Swedish TGC market operating in a setting of a common Nordic electricity market. The analysis shows that Swedish producers may exercise market power using the TGC-market but that this problem will be eliminated by opening the TGC-market......The purpose of this study is to elucidate under which circumstances, how, and to what extent market power on a Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) market can be used to affect an entire electricity market. There are basically two reasons for being concerned with this. One is that a small number...

Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

2016-07-01

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

2013-01-01

Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

Is the world oil market 'one great pool'? A test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, A.E.; Williams, M.D.

1993-01-01

In a recent paper (Weiner, 1991) it was argued that crude oil markets are regionalized, thus challenging the assertion that the world oil market is homogeneous. This argument bears on the effectiveness of various energy policies. It is argued that these policies should be analyzed using constructs such as antitrust markets, rather than in relation to an ad-hoc definition of regionalization like that used by Weiner. Regionalization and geographic antitrust markets, empirics, and policy implications of regional markets are discussed. By drawing clear parallels between the concept of regionalization and antitrust markets, it is shown that: due to Wiener's flawed methodological and empirical approach, it is not clear that crude oil markets are, in fact, regional; and policies that appear at first glance to require regional markets to be effective, may be explained even in a unified world market. Strong evidence is found in support of a unified world oil market. Some policy implications in the area of import taxes are discussed. 35 refs., 1 tab

Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

2014-01-01

Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

Latin American oil markets and refining

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Obadia, C.

1999-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the oil markets and refining in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, and examines the production of crude oil in these countries. Details are given of Latin American refiners highlighting trends in crude distillation unit capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and refining in the different countries. Latin American oil trade is discussed, and charts are presented illustrating crude production, oil consumption, crude refining capacity, cracking to distillation ratios, and oil imports and exports

Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asgari, Mohammad Hossein; Monsef, Hassan

2010-01-01

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran's electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector's ownership in Iran's power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran's power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007-March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran's electricity market are also mentioned.

Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammazi, Rania

2012-01-01

, apart from UK and Japanese cases, the responses of the stock market to an oil shock depend on the geographic area for the main source of supply whether from the North Sea or from the North America (as we take two oil benchmarks WTI and Brent respectively). -- Highlights: ► limitation of standard Garch models in capturing non linearity, drifts and spikes of oil and stock returns. ► Wavelet method is known as a powerful tool in removing noises affecting the dynamics of the data. ► Regime switching models are also more suitable to encircle the behavior of these series. ► The use of the Trivariate BEKK-SWITCHING GARCH to explore the transmissions of shock between stock and oil returns. ► Combination of wavelet and BEKK regime switching may be considered as the most flexible model for the data dynamics.

Placing Brazil's heavy acid oils on international markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szklo, Alexandre Salem; Machado, Giovani; Schaeffer, Roberto; Felipe Simoes, Andre; Barboza Mariano, Jacqueline

2006-01-01

This paper identifies the international market niches of Brazil's heavy acid oils. It analyzes the perspectives for making wider use of heavy acid oils, assessing their importance for certain oil-producing regions such as Brazil, Venezuela, West Africa, the North Sea and China. Within this context, the oil produced in the Marlim Field offshore Brazil is of specific interest, spurred by the development of its commercial brand name for placement on international markets and backed by ample production volumes. This analysis indicates keener international competition among acid oils produced in Brazil, the North Sea and the West Coast of Africa, through to 2010. However, over the long term, refinery conversion capacity is the key factor for channeling larger volumes of heavy acid oils to the international market. In this case, the future of acid oil producers will depend on investments in refineries close to oil product consumption centers. For Brazil, this means investments in modifying its refineries and setting up partnerships in the downstream segment for consumer centers absorbing all products of high added value, such as the USA and even Southeast Asia and Western Europe

Market power and storage in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skaar, Jostein

2004-05-01

Market power in liberalised electricity markets dominated by hydropower is analyzed in four chapters. The existing literature on competition in hydropower markets is briefly presented and examined. Chapter 1 discusses the effects of market power in the context of acquisitions in a situation where transmission capacity is constrained. Chapter 2 and 3 elaborate on the issue of competition and market power when water inflow is uncertain, and finally Chapter 4 focuses on the supply function equilibrium model in the context of a hydropower market

The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Raymond; Leung, Guy C.K.

2011-01-01

The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market. - Highlights: → Review of the oil trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government. → Review of the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies. → China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. → Shipment data show that China can no longer be regarded as a separate market. → Strong co-movement between the Chinese oil price and the international oil prices.

Crude oil options market found to be efficient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the U.S. crude oil options market operates efficiently and does not overreact. The authors, with the JFK School of Government, studied the crude oil options market under a Department of Energy grant. The current market was created in November 1986 when the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced an options contract for delivery of West Texas intermediate crude futures. it has grown greatly since then

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

2007-01-01

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

Dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Bin; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

2018-02-01

This paper aims to examine the dynamic linkages among the gold market, US dollar and crude oil market. The analysis also delves more deeply into the effect of the global financial crisis on the short-term relationship. We use fractional cointegration to analyze the long-term memory feature of these volatility processes to investigate whether they are tied through a common long-term equilibrium. The DCC-MGARCH model is employed to investigate the time-varying long-term linkages among these markets. The Krystou-Labys non-linear asymmetric Granger causality method is used to examine the effect of the financial crisis. We find that (i) there is clearly a long-term dependence among these markets; (ii) the dynamic gold-oil relationship is always positive and the oil-dollar relationship is always negative; and (iii) after the crisis, we can observe evidence of a positive non-linear causal relationship from gold to US dollar and US dollar to crude oil, and a negative non-linear causal relationship from US dollar to gold. Investors who want to construct their optimal portfolios and policymakers who aim to make effective macroeconomic policies should take these findings into account.

Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Eduardo; Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose

2012-01-01

The role of crude oil as the main energy source for the global economic activity has motivated the discussion about the dynamics and causes of crude oil price changes. An accurate understanding of the issue should provide important guidelines for the design of optimal policies and government budget planning. Using daily data for WTI over the period January 1986–March 2011, we analyze the evolution of the informational complexity and efficiency for the crude oil market through multiscale entropy analysis. The results indicated that the crude oil market is informationally efficient over the scrutinized period except for two periods that correspond to the early 1990s and late 2000s US recessions. Overall, the results showed that deregulation has improved the operation of the market in the sense of making returns less predictable. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the probability of having a severe US economic recession increases as the informational efficiency decreases, which indicates that returns from crude oil markets are less uncertain during economic downturns. - Highlights: ► Entropy concepts are used to characterize crude oil prices. ► An index of market efficiency is introduced. ► Except for periods of economic recession, the crude oil market is informationally efficient.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013: Market Trends and Projections to 2018

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-06-01

The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants. This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon revolution is a ''game changer''. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected. While North America is expected to lead medium-term supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer. These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies. It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil

Power marketing and renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, J.M.

1997-01-01

Power marketing refers to wholesale and retail transactions of electric power made by companies other than public power entities and the regulated utilities that own the generation and distribution lines. The growth in power marketing has been a major development in the electric power industry during the last few years, and power marketers are expected to realize even more market opportunities as electric industry deregulation proceeds from wholesale competition to retail competition. This Topical Issues Brief examines the nature of the power marketing business and its relationship with renewable power. The information presented is based on interviews conducted with nine power marketing companies, which accounted for almost 54% of total power sales by power marketers in 1995. These interviews provided information on various viewpoints of power marketers, their experience with renewables, and their respective outlooks for including renewables in their resource portfolios. Some basic differences exist between wholesale and retail competition that should be recognized when discussing power marketing and renewable power. At the wholesale level, the majority of power marketers stress the commodity nature of electricity. The primary criteria for developing resource portfolios are the same as those of their wholesale customers: the cost and reliability of power supplies. At the retail level, electricity may be viewed as a product that includes value-added characteristics or services determined by customer preferences

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

1999-04-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

1999-01-01

We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

China's oil market and refining sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.; Fridley, D.G.

2000-01-01

The article assesses the future for China's oil industry as the country makes the transition from a command economy to an international market. China has one of the world's biggest oil industries and recent years have seen much growth in exploration and development, refining capacity and trade. China is more and more dependent on oil imports and is now a major international player; it has attracted much outside investment. Diagrams show (i) how coal dominates other sources of energy in China; (ii) crude production 1977-1998; (iii) how Middle East crudes now dominate Chinese crude imports; (iv) the growth of petroleum demand in China; (v) the Chinese demand for petroleum products; (vi) the growth in transport fuels; (vii) Chinese product imports: import ban targeted diesel; (viii) crude imports favoured over product imports and (ix) refinery capacity and throughput. The changes are expected to result in further integration into international markets, increased transparency and a healthier oil business

Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, M.R.

1997-01-01

The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry's practice of maintaining crude stocks at ''Just in time'' inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers' information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996

Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

Data are presented in these appendices on the marketing and economic potential for soda ash, aluminia, and nahcolite as by-products of shale oil production. Appendices 1 and 2 contain data on the estimated capital and operating cost of an oil shales/mineral co-products recovery facility. Appendix 3 contains the marketing research data.

The World Oil Market: The Search for Balance in the New “Oil” Reality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatjiana A. Malova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article provides an analysis of change of the world oil market in the face of new "oil" reality. Factors of formation of new "oil" reality in the global world defined. Scientific background and current state of research of the problem are described. It is shownthat in the Russian and foreign literature the considerable attention is paid to the analysis of dynamics of the quantitative variables characterizing fluctuations and shocks in the oil market. At the same time the search for balance in the new "oil" reality are not considerably investigated yet. The proposed approach allows toreveal the substance of the transformation of the world oil market, to assess the changes in the oil market with the development of rhenium in terms of efficiency and functioning of the mechanism, the prospects of price volatility in the oil market. The main directions of transformation of the oil market are follows. Development of a subject basis of the oil market due to changes of a role of the main market players whose structure includes the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia now. The impact of regulatory factors complex in the oil market towards equilibrium, which include activity of OPEC, supply of shale oil, future market,activity of the uniform regulator and national regulators. Transformation of the oil market in the direction of perfection of the competitive relations, achievement of optimum market balance as a result of coordination and interaction of interests of participants of the global oil market.

Market power in electricity markets: Beyond concentration measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borenstein, S.; Bushnell, J.; Knittel, C.R.

1999-01-01

The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the US and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures. In this paper, the authors discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and they propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. The authors discuss results from previous studies they have performed, and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. They close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results

China Oil and Gas Market Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu, Yu

2004-08-01

China, with one-fifth of the world's population and one of the fastest rates of economic growth, is experiencing a boom in its energy requirements. China has been identified as a high priority market for the oil and gas sector. This priority has resulted in the high level of investment and many large-scale projects related to the oil and gas industry. Oil production from existing fields is expected to increase, new oil and gas fields will be developed, and the country's oil and gas transmission infrastructure will be extended to meet domestic demands. In addition, total domestic investment needs for the next three decades till 2030 are estimated at around $119 billion, and upstream exploration and development will account for about $69 billion. China's oil and gas exploitation business has been the biggest beneficiary of the bearish crude oil prices, national oil stockpile and the need of infrastructure. In the first six-month period of 2005, this industry has gained a profit of USD16.5 billion, up 73.4 per cent year-on-year. The country is becoming increasingly open to international oil companies, contractors and equipment suppliers, who can bring advanced technology, equipment, and management experience. In this context, considerable opportunities in the supply and service sectors are open to Dutch companies. This report analyses the present situation and market prospect of China upstream oil and gas industry, including: Current status of Chinese oil and gas industry analysis and future development forecast; Potential customers analysis, such as three stated-owned oil companies and their foreign partners;Domestic and foreign competitors analysis; Potential opportunities and challenges analysis; Providing contacts and information on main ongoing oil exploration and development projects, and business practices

OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahmani, A.; Al-Osaimy, M.H.

2001-01-01

This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries' compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the casual relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. (author)

Shale oil specialty markets: Screening survey for United States applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1987-12-01

EG and G requested J. E. Sinor Consultants Inc. to carry out an initial screening study on the possibilities for producing specialty chemicals from oil shale. Raw shale oil is not an acceptable feedstock to refineries and there are not enough user of heavy fuel oil in the western oil shale region to provide a dependable market. The only alternatives are to hydrotreat the oil, or else ship it long distances to a larger market area. Either of these alternatives results in a cost penalty of several dollars per barrel. Instead of attempting to enter the large-volume petroleum products market, it was hypothesized that a small shale oil facility might be able to produce specialty chemicals with a high enough average value to absorb the high costs of shipping small quantities to distant markets and still provide a higher netback to the plant site than sales to the conventional petroleum products market. This approach, rather than attempting to refine shale oil or to modify its characteristics to satisfy the specifications for petroleum feedstocks or products, focuses instead on those particular characteristics which distinguish shale oil from petroleum, and attempts to identify applications which would justify a premium value for those distinctive characteristics. Because byproducts or specialty chemicals production has been a prominent feature of oil shale industries which have flourished for periods of time in various countries, a brief review of those industries provides a starting point for this study. 9 figs., 32 tabs.

Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, Ferenc L.; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2006-01-01

The relationship between oil and nuclear energy in the global energy scene over the past 50 years is analysed. The former nuclear-oil product competition in power generation and various end-use markets is found to have transformed into a complementary relationship. Current concerns associated with both energy sources and related technologies, including price volatility, supply security, geopolitical sensitivity, depletion alarms, and environmental pollution issues for oil, economic performance, operational safety, proliferation, terrorism, radioactive waste disposal, and the resulting public acceptance for nuclear are examined as determinants of their future roles in the world energy balance. An assessment of the long-term prospects for oil and nuclear energy is presented at the scale of a century to support further economic and energy policy analyses. It is the first in-depth study of global energy projections based on a comparative examination of long-term socio-economic scenarios and their coordinated quantifications by a set of integrated energy-economy models

Global warming and oil: Can nuclear power make a difference?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1991-01-01

A responsible energy policy, for the United States and the world, must address two needs: to restrain the rate of fossil fuel consumption, and to reduce the consumption of oil. Unless the first is accomplished, the world may experience major climate changes, some perhaps disastrous, from the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Unless the second is met, we face recurring threats of economic disruption and war, due to the dangerous concentration of the world's oil resources in the Persian Gulf region. Nuclear power has long been cited as a possible answer to these needs. Mr. Bodansky takes a fresh look at the contribution nuclear power could make, in the light of our increased awareness of global warming dangers and the renewed reminders of the instabilities of oil markets. He notes, however, that the basic objections to nuclear power remain. They are well-known, stemming from concerns about reactor safety, waste disposal, nuclear proliferation, and cost. These are old but continuing controversies, involving a tangle of technical, political, social, and economic issues. If nuclear power is to be revived, these concerns clearly must be addressed. 1 fig., 7 tabs

Introduction to market power issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

This paper presents an initial introduction to market power issues in wholesale electric power markets. Market power was described as the ability of sellers to act together to profitably maintain prices above competitive levels for a significant period of time. The two general forms of market power, vertical and horizontal market power, were described with reference to how they may be exercised. The factors that should be considered when evaluating the competitiveness of a market include: (1) market share of suppliers, (2) overall market concentration, (3) elasticity of demand, (4) shape of the industry supply curve, (5) the amount and distribution of excess supply, (6) typical contractual arrangements and the process for establishing prices, and (7) the relative ease to enter the market. It was noted that a narrow market scope allows only wholesale market sector (such as municipal utilities) to access competitive electricity supplies, however, a more expansive definition of market scope would consider the sale of electricity to industrial customers. This would allow more players to enter the Nova Scotia market. The barriers to entry for wholesale electric power markets are: (1) access to the transmission grids and services, (2) sites for new capacity development, (3) major inputs to power generation, (4) transportation of major inputs to generation, and (5) lack of liquidity

The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Buryanova N.V.

2017-08-01

Full Text Available the article examines the issues of influence of OPEC countries on the international oil market. Also, the author analyzes the state of the oil market and fluctuations in oil prices at the macroeconomic level for 2011–2016.

The Asia-Pacific oil market : prospects for Canadian oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

2004-01-01

The Asia-Pacific region is among the fastest growing oil markets for which analysts predict healthy growth rates due to high energy demands from developing countries such as China. Increased oil demand will mean new refining capacity needs and increased supplies of crude oil. The indigenous crude supply in the Asia-Pacific region is limited and unable to meet the region's needs. Imports are therefore expected to rise continuously. Although the Middle East will continue to be the dominant player in meeting these growing oil needs, Canada has an opportunity to diversify the supply source and play a significant role in meeting the energy needs of the Asia-Pacific region. tabs., figs

Taxing the difference: World oil market projections 1994-2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinsch, A.E.; Considine, J.I.; MacKay, E.J.

1994-01-01

The likely impacts of key uncertainties affecting the oil market were assessed, and reference price path to aid industry and governments in their investment and policy decisions, was provided. The reference market outlook corresponded to an annual growth of around 1.5% and a price of $ 18.00 per barrel. The greatest weakness of the market projections were found to be the expected performance of petroleum product demand growth. There was strong evidence that governments of major oil consuming countries had taken action to weaken the response of petroleum product demand to declines in the crude price, by driving an ever increasing fiscal wedge between the crude price and the corresponding product prices.The outcome is an asymmetry in demand response to crude price movements. Incorporation of this asymmetry into the world oil market model could have some disturbing results: under the reference case market assumptions, continuation of this tax and pricing policy would not only eliminate the price gains projected, but move the oil price below current levels on a sustained basis. The study concluded that OPEC members and the governments of the major industrialized oil consuming countries should strive to reach an agreement to avoid catastrophic price instability. refs., tabs., figs

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

OpenAIRE

Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

2017-01-01

Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

OpenAIRE

Filis, George; Degiannakis, S.; Floros, C.

2011-01-01

The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between stock market prices and oil prices for oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. A DCC-GARCH-GJR approach is employed to test the above hypothesis based on data from six countries; Oil-exporting: Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Oil-importing: USA, Germany, Netherlands. The contemporaneous correlation results show that i) although time-varying correlation does not differ for oil-importing and oil-exporting economies, ii) the correlation i...

Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

2014-01-01

Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aune, Finn Roar; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Mohn, Klaus; Osmundsen, Petter

2010-01-01

We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. A partial equilibrium model for the global oil market is applied to compare the effects of these tacitly collusive capital constraints on oil supply with an alternative characterised by industrial stability. Our results suggest that even temporary economic and financial shocks may have a long-term impact on oil price formation. (author)

Oil market in the 1990s: implications for ESCWA countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gault, J.; Karbassioun, B.

1992-01-01

This paper, prepared for the ESCWA Expert Group Meeting in Amman, Jordan, 20-23 November 1989, concerns the outlook for oil markets in the coming decade and the implications of certain market trends for the ESCWA countries, including both the energy exporting and energy importing members of ESCWA. It is argued that increasing oil consumption may well bring world oil production close to physical capacity before the end of the 1990s, thereby provoking an increase in real oil prices. It is further argued that the uncertainty surrounding this scenario is asymmetric; it is more likely that real oil prices will rise than that they will remain stable or fall. Other major trends, including enhanced worldwide concern for the environment and the bilateralization of world trade, also will affect ESCWA countries. The authors conclude that member countries should expand petroleum exploration activities, improve the operating efficiency of their national oil companies, bring domestic energy prices into line with world markets, expand natural gas development and marketing efforts, participate in multilateral trade negotiations, and expand co-ordination in all energy matters. (Author)

The tenth CERI [Canadian Energy Research Institute] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

At a conference on oil and gas markets, papers were presented on oil market instability and its impact on economic development, international energy policy, oil supply and demand, natural gas liquids sales, world gas trade, gas markets in Europe and Asia, petroleum industry activities and their relation to government, oil refining and product market developments, and the North American natural gas market. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 25 papers from this conference

Market Prices in a Power Market with more than 50% Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Klaus; Grohnheit, Poul Erik

2018-01-01

Denmark has the highest proportion of wind power in the world. Wind power provided a world record of 39.1% of the total annual Danish electricity consumption in 2014 with as much as 51.7% in Western Denmark. Many would argue that the present power markets are not designed for such high shares...... of wind power production and that it would be hard to get good and stable prices. However, analyses in this chapter show that the Nordic power market works, extreme events have been few, and the current infrastructure and market organization has been able to handle the amount of wind power installed so...... far. It is found that geographical bidding areas for the wholesale electricity market reflect external transmission constraints caused by wind power. The analyses in this chapter use hourly data from West Denmark—which has the highest share of wind energy in Denmark and which is a separate price area...

Market Prices in a Power Market with more than 50% Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skytte, Klaus; Grohnheit, Poul Erik

2017-01-01

Denmark has the highest proportion of wind power in the world. Wind power provided a world record of 39.1% of the total annual Danish electricity consumption in 2014 with as much as 51.7% in Western Denmark. Many would argue that the present power markets are not designed for such high shares...... of wind power production and that it would be hard to get good and stable prices. However, analyses in this chapter show that the Nordic power market works, extreme events have been few, and the current infrastructure and market organization has been able to handle the amount of wind power installed so...... far. It is found that geographical bidding areas for the wholesale electricity market reflect external transmission constraints caused by wind power. The analyses in this chapter use hourly data from West Denmark—which has the highest share of wind energy in Denmark and which is a separate price area...

Power Markets. Creating a regional power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beckman, K.; Belin, H.

2009-01-01

One article and one column in the section 'Power markets'. In the article attention is paid to the leading role of the Netherlands in the pursuit of a fully integrated North West European electricity market. the column 'View from Brussels' focuses on the 'Sustainable Energy Europe' campaign and the related EU Sustainable Energy Week in February 2009

Green Power Marketing - from Niches to Mass Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wuestenhagen, Rolf

2000-01-01

In the process of liberalization of the electricity market the customers are now in a position to participate in the decision on how their electricity is produced. In particular, many consumers have a preference for renewable energies. For the producers, marketing of 'eco-power' is an opportunity to achieve sustainable competitive advantage. However, the market share of these products is still quite small today, and 'eco-power' is usually marketed as an expensive niche product. From the perspective of sustainable development these niches are a necessary but not sufficient step. In this book, ways are discussed which could lead to a mass-market penetration of eco-power products. A theoretical analysis is combined with empirical evidence derived from the eco-power market in Germany, Switzerland, Great Britain and the U.S. as well as with a comparison with other market segments [de

Modeling market power in Korea's emerging power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Nam-sung; Niemeyer, Victor

2007-01-01

The Korean power market is being formed from the unbundled generation, transmission and distribution assets of Korea Electric Power Corporation. The KEPCO generation has been allocated to six independent gencos with a combined generating capacity of 46,629 MW in 2002. This gave an 11% margin over the peak load that year (41,921 MW). One of the concerns for any power market is whether individual participants can increase profits (and prices) by withholding generation from the market. To address this concern, a Cournot-based model of Korean power system was created and applied to a set of loads representing the load duration curve for Korea's system loads in 2002. Our simulation results show a strong possibility for exercise of market power to increase market price in Korean market. Under tight market conditions, even 1 GW of withholding can cause a large increase in market price. If loads unexpectedly grow faster than the 5% recent experience, the gencos will have the collective ability and incentive to spike prices further. Vesting contracts can reduce the incentive to act strategically. Requiring that the gencos offer 50% of their capacity in long-term forward contracts greatly reduces the payoff to act strategically, and requiring vesting for 75% of their capacity results in prices that are essentially the same as the competitive equilibrium. Depending on the price for the vesting contracts, this policy can reduce the incentives to add new generation by gencos or the competitive fringe. Another approach to reducing the effects of market power is establishing demand-response programs, simulated here by increasing the elasticity of overall demand. These programs can reduce the incentives to withhold capacity, but to a lesser degree than vesting contracts. The genco with the greatest ability to influence prices through withholding is the largest, KNHP. However, acting on its own, without the support of the other gencos, its ability to raise prices is limited. This

Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamed, A.H.

1992-01-01

Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

Market power behaviour in the danish food marketing chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2009-01-01

The paper presents and demonstrates an econometric approach to analysing food industry firms' market pricing behaviour within the framework of translog cost functions and based on firm-level accounts panel data. The study identifies effects that can be interpreted as firms' market power behaviour...... in output or input markets. The most robust indications of market power behaviour in output markets are found in the pork and poultry processing sectors, as well as for firms in the bakeries sector. On the other hand, the most robust market power behaviour indications regarding input markets are found...... for poultry processing. In general, the patterns with regard to market power behaviour seem to be more clearly identified in the processing sectors than in the distribution sectors....

Asia-Pacific lube oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.

2001-01-01

An overview of the Asia-Pacific (AP) lubricating oils market, its special characteristics, and its role in the global economy are presented. In the 'boom and bust' years of 1997-1999, the Asia-Pacific market was even bigger then the US market. For the short-term, the scenario is surplus capacity and poor margins, but in the long term there is enormous potential for growth. How fuel demand and quality is related to engine type is discussed. The three basic grades of baseoils are described, and the Asia-Pacific lube demand and the Asia-Pacific lube oil supply are discussed. There are 15 diagrams giving data on: (i) finished lubes in world markets as a percentage of total; (ii) how lube demand follows GDP per capita in Asia; (iii) AP baseoil capacity relationships; (iv) AP baseoil disposition by end use; (v) AP changing shares of baseoil demand; (vi) AP finished lube demand by subregion; (vii) AP finished lube demand growth, indexed; (viii) AP baseoil capacity by region; Singapore baseoil vs. Dubai crude prices, 1992-99; (ix) Singapore baseoil vs. crude prices, 1992-99; (x) AP baseoil deficit moved to surplus; (xi) AP baseoil production; (xii) East Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999. (xiii) Southeast Asia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999; (xiv) South East Asia and Australia net percentage change in lube sales, 1997-1999 and (xv) Asia-Pacific major lube marketers

Markets during world oil supply crises: an analysis of industry, consumer, and governmental response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Erfle, Stephen; Pound, John; Kalt, Joseph

1981-04-01

An analysis of the response of American markets to supply crises in world oil markets is presented. It addresses four main issues: the efficiency of the operation of American oil markets during oil supply crises; the problems of both economic efficiency and social equity which arise during the American adaptation process; the propriety of the Federal government's past policy responses to these problems; and the relationship between perceptions of the problems caused by world oil crises and the real economic natures of these problems. Specifically, Chapter 1 presents a theoretical discussion of the effects of a world supply disruption on the price level and supply availability of the world market oil to any consuming country including the US Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the efficiency of the adaptations of US oil product markets to higher world oil prices. Chapter 3 examines the responses of various groups of US oil firms to the alterations observed in world markets, while Chapter 4 presents a theoretical explanation for the price-lagging behavior exhibited by firms in the US oil industry. Chapter 5 addresses the nature of both real and imagined oil market problems in the US during periods of world oil market transition. (MCW)

Market power and technological bias in electricity generation markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Twomey, Paul; Neuhoff, Karsten

2005-01-01

It is difficult or very costly to avoid all market power in electricity markets. A recurring response is that a limited amount of market power is accepted with the justification that it is necessary to produce revenues to cover some of the fixed costs. It is assumed that all market participants benefit equally from the increased prices. However, this assumption is not satisfied if different production technologies are used. We assess the case of a generation mix of conventional generation and intermittent generation with exogenously varying production levels. If all output is sold in the spot market, then intermittent generation benefits less from market power than conventional generation. If forward contracts or option contracts are signed, then market power might be reduced but the bias against returns to intermittent generators persists. Thus allowing some level of market power as a means of encouraging investment in new generation may result in a bias against intermittent technologies or increase the costs of strategic deployment to achieve renewable quotas. (Author)

Stability factors for OPEC and the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yousfi, Y.

1991-01-01

The nationalizations of the 1970s, as well as the 1973 and 1979 sharp price increases which heightened OPEC's notoriety, considerably exaggerated the organization's image of strength, power, and dominance. In contrast, the 1980s-which witnesses the murderous war between two OPEC founding members, the shrinkage of the energy market, the emergence of new oil exporters, the dramatic price collapse in early 1986, and acute economic crises in a great number of member countries-have framed OPEC as a weak and powerless organization, incapable of enforcing any discipline or establishing any dialogue with its competitors. This paper reports that in this period of market depression, the end of a cartel-or at best its breaking apart-became common talk as too much emphasis was placed on the deep antagonisms between the rich, less populated member countries and those with dense population and relatively low income

The outlook for the world and Australian oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donaldson, K.; Fok, G.

1996-01-01

Global demand for oil is projected to continue its upward trend to 2000-1, with growth in the transport sector expected to underpin future increases in oil consumption. World oil consumption is projected to be matched by global production, keeping the average annual oil price relatively stable. In many countries, the diversion of oil revenue to other projects is threatening to constrain increases in production capacity, particularly in the OPEC countries. The encouragement of foreign investment in state oil industries is a likely method of easing the constraint. Australian exploration activity is rising steadily with the prospect of stable oil prices, expanding gas markets and the incentives provided by a number of recent discoveries. While the geographical pattern of Australian production has now changed, with Western Australian production exceeding Victoria production, Australia is expected to maintain its position in the world oil market as a significant producer, importer and exporter. (author). 6 figs., 23 refs

How equity markets view heavy oil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janisch, M. L. [Nesbitt Burns Research, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1996-12-31

Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development.

How equity markets view heavy oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janisch, M. L.

1996-01-01

Factors that influence the equity market in investment decisions vis-a-vis the oil sands/heavy oil industry were reviewed. The importance of financing methods (debt, royalty trusts, common equity), liquidity of investments, absolute vs. relative performance, comparative economics vis-a-vis conventional oil producers, oil prices, operating cost drivers (technology, natural gas costs, cost/availability of diluent), transportation and refining capacity, were summarized. In the final analysis, consistent economic success on a large scale, combined with an assessment of available alternatives, were considered to be the most likely motivators for portfolio managers. As a cautionary note, it was noted that traditionally, oil and gas investors have not been known to be in the forefront to invest in research and development

Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabre, S.

1991-01-01

Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

A unified world oil market: Regions in physical, economic, geographic, and political space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Banerjee, Shayan

2014-01-01

Although there is a general consensus that the market is unified, here we quantify the factors that create regions by analyzing the price relation between 33 crude oils. ADF statistics indicate that 447 of the 528 crude oil pairings cointegrate; 81 do not. The presence/absence of cointegration is analyzed using a logit model. The likelihood that the prices for two crude oils cointegrate depends on their physical characteristics (density and sulfur content), economic factors (country risk for the nation of origin), their geographic location (distance between supply ports), and political factors (OPEC membership). Over the sample period, the technology to refine heavy crude oils penetrates the market, and this reduces the price difference between heavy and light crude oils. The effect of country risk implies that crude oils from high risk nations are not perfect substitutes for crude oils of similar quality from low risk nations. Finally, crude oils from widely separated suppliers are more likely to cointegrate than crude oils from near-by nations, which suggests consumers diversify supply across transportation chokepoints. For this sample, these sources of regionalization add $0.20 per barrel to the $2.86 average price difference between crude oils in the same market. Together, these factors have important implications for the efficacy of policy aimed at reducing dependence on unreliable suppliers and the spill-over effects of holding inventories. - Highlights: • The world oil market is not completely unified. • Regions are defined by differences in API gravity and sulfur content. • Country risk regionalizes the world oil market. • Shipping chokepoints regionalize the world oil market. • Regionalization adds $0.20 to $2.86 price difference between oils in same market

13th CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

At an oil and gas industry conference, papers were presented on world oil supply and demand, energy geopolitics, world oil prices, the status of the Chinese oil/gas industry and prospects for exploration and development, Latin American oil/gas markets and development opportunities, the oil and gas industries in non-OPEC Middle East countries (Oman, Yemen, Turkey), oil and gas markets in North America, and financial and regulatory aspects of domestic gas markets in Canada and the USA. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 17 papers from this conference

Comment: Reluctance to trade a risky position in oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, M.

1995-01-01

The oil industry is re-engineering, restructuring, down-sizing, etc. as part of a draconian effort to reduce costs and enhance profit margins. Benchmarking of corporate results against the competition is in vogue, with a view to challenging performance at every level of management. The bold can do attitude behind today's oil industry revolution in management grinds to a halt when the subject is oil trading. Mention speculation, oil pricing mechanisms, market risk-taking, or derivative instruments, and many in senior management and the corporate boardroom lapse into worried silence. When an oil company finishes restructuring and reconcentrating business direction, setting new investment and performance criteria, it is still left with the huge variable of price. Any corporate management that fails to act aggressively in the trading sector by pursuing the best possible oil price as a buyer or seller isn't living up to its responsibilities to shareholders. This article discusses market retreat, market imperfections, winners and losers, the decision to trade, developing a program and issues currently attracting oil industry attention

Market analysis of shale oil co-products. Summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

This study examines the potential for separating, upgrading and marketing sodium mineral co-products together with shale oil production. The co-products investigated are soda ash and alumina which are derived from the minerals nahcolite and dawsonite. Five cases were selected to reflect the variance in mineral and shale oil content in the identified resource. In the five cases examined, oil content of the shale was varied from 20 to 30 gallons per ton. Two sizes of facilities were analyzed for each resource case to determine economies of scale between a 15,000 barrel per day demonstration unit and a 50,000 barrel per day full sized plant. Three separate pieces of analysis were conducted in this study: analysis of manufacturing costs for shale oil and co-products; projection of potential world markets for alumina, soda ash, and nahcolite; and determination of economic viability and market potential for shale co-products.

Global market trade policy analysis for petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bagheri, F.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This article is based on surveying the custom tariffs imposed on the world export market of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. We obtained the data according to the most updated available data provided online by UNCTAD and World Bank. The results indicate that none of the 142 countries in the world market of this product have imposed non-tariff trade barriers on the import of Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude. The developed countries and the countries with transition economies are the main world import partners. European Union, United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, South Africa, Australia, Turkey, Brazil, Sweden and Belarus are the examples and have imposed low custom tariffs on Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained from Bituminous Minerals, Crude.

Development of the German mineral oil market in 1995. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohnfeld, J.; Heinze, W.

1996-01-01

Following a brief glance at the boundary conditions for the German market (world oil market, inland energy consumption), the development of inland sales is described. One after one, the mineral oil products Otto engine fuel, diesel fuel, light fuel oil and heavy fuel oil are considered. Further sections deal with crude oil supply, the supply of mineral oil produce, refinery production, the development in the sales sector, the profit situation of the mineral oil industry, the development of prices (according to products) and expenditure in foreign exchange for mineral oil. The article contains numerous tables and graphs; comparisons with the years previously illustrate development trends. (UA) [de

Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormady, Noah C.

2014-01-01

This paper provides an experimental analysis of a simultaneous energy-emissions market under conditions of market power. The experimental design employs real-world institutional features; including stochastic demand, permit banking, inter-temporal (multi-round) dynamics, a tightening cap, and resale. The results suggest that dominant firms can utilize energy-emissions market linkages to simultaneously inflate the price of energy and suppress the price of emissions allowances. Whereas under prior market designs, regulators were concerned with dominant firms exercising their market power over the emissions market to exclude rivals and manipulate the permit market by hoarding permits; the results of this paper suggest that this strategy is less profitable to dominant firms in contemporary auction-based markets than strategic capacity withholding in the energy market and associated demand reduction in the emissions market. - Highlights: • Laboratory simulation of joint energy-emissions market. • Evaluates market power under collusion and real-world institutional features. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to inflate energy prices. • Dominant firms can exercise market power to suppress emissions prices. • Supply withholding is an implicit demand reduction in the emissions market

Market value of wind power

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haan, de J.E.S.; Shoeb, M.A.; Lopes Ferreira, H.M.; Kling, W.L.

2013-01-01

Variability and predictability constraints of wind hinder the cost-efficient integration of wind power generation into power markets. Within the framework of EIT KIC INNOENERGY Offwindtech project, a ‘Market Value’ tool is developed. Here, the market value of wind power generation can be assessed

Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)

1997-11-01

This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)

Explaining the so-called 'price premium' in oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino, A.; Ortiz, A.

2005-01-01

This paper explores the information content of several variables on the so-called ''oil price premium over fundamentals''. We define this premium as the difference between the market oil price and the estimated price consistent with the OECD's relative industry stock level. By using Granger causality tests and extended regressions we test the systematic ability of a broad set of variables to explain the premium. We find that speculation in the oil market - measured by non-commercial long positions - can improve the traditional model, reducing the premium significantly during some parts of the sample. (author)

Prospect for the oil market as a consequence of the financial crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koppelaar, R.

2008-11-01

The Peak Oil Netherlands Foundation shines its light on the consequences of the financial crisis for the global oil market and the relation between oil prices and the credit crisis; short term supply and demand on the oil market; supply and demand of petroleum up to 2015; the volatility of the oil price and the meaning of volatility for the energy transition [mk] [nl

A survey of the market for nuclear power in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Falls, O.B.

1973-01-01

The results of an analysis, undertaken by the IAEA, of the possible long-range economic justification for nuclear power plants in 14 developing countries are reported. The methodology and procedures used in carrying out the analytical work are reviewed and several computer programmes specially developed for the survey are described. The results indicate that during the period 1980-89 there is essentially no market for small nuclear power units of sizes 300 MW and smaller. The market is indicated as averaging less than 800 MW per year. There is however a substantial market for 600 MW and 800 to 1000 MW sizes. This market is indicated as averaging in the range of 4000 to 7000 MW per year. Of the total thermal power plant market the nuclear portion is indicated to be; less than 50% up to 1982, 70 to 75% in 1982-84 and 80 to 95% in 1985-89. Once nuclear plants are indicated for a given country, they will continue so in the future; also, after the larger sizes (600 MW and over) become justified substantial changes in the values of the economic parameters (e.g. oil prices or discount rates) will have little effect on the total nuclear plant market since essentially all units will prove to be nuclear from that point into the future. (U.K.)

Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

Market Penetration Simulation of Hydrogen Powered Vehicles in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eunju Jun; Yong Hoon, Jeong; Soon Heung, Chang

2006-01-01

As oil price being boosted, hydrogen has been considered to be a strong candidate for the future energy carrier along with electricity. Although hydrogen can be produced by many energy sources, carbon-free sources such as nuclear and renewable energy may be ideal ones due to their environmental friendliness. For the analysis of hydrogen economy, the cost and market penetration of various end-use technologies are the most important factors in production and consumer side, respectively. Particularly, hydrogen powered vehicle is getting more interests as fuel cell technologies are developed. In this paper, the hydrogen powered vehicle penetration into the transportation market is simulated. A system dynamic code, Vensim, was utilized to simulate the dynamics in the transportation, assuming various types of vehicle such as gasoline, hybrid electricity and hydrogen powered. Market shares of each vehicle are predicted by using currently available data. The result showed that hydrogen era will not be bright as we think. To reach the era of hydrogen fuel cell cost should be reduced dramatically. And if the hydrogen cost which includes both operating and capital cost reaches to a $0.16 per kilometer, hydrogen portion can be a 50 percent in the transportation sector. However, if strong policy or subsidy can be given, the result will be changed. [1] (authors)

Methods for Estimation of Market Power in Electric Power Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Turcik, M.; Oleinikova, I.; Junghans, G.; Kolcun, M.

2012-01-01

The article is related to a topical issue of the newly-arisen market power phenomenon in the electric power industry. The authors point out to the importance of effective instruments and methods for credible estimation of the market power on liberalized electricity market as well as the forms and consequences of market power abuse. The fundamental principles and methods of the market power estimation are given along with the most common relevant indicators. Furthermore, in the work a proposal for determination of the relevant market place taking into account the specific features of power system and a theoretical example of estimating the residual supply index (RSI) in the electricity market are given.

Energy swaps as profit motive instruments in oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arshi, A.A.

1992-01-01

In this paper, I introduce oil swaps as financial instruments available to oil producers and to buyers of crude oil and products, and the positive effects they can provide for marketing profitability. In addition, I seek to underline the complementarity of oil swaps, emphasizing the benefits which can result from efficiently monitored use of such tools. I review the various criteria to be considered when implementing swap arrangements and I examine standard and non-standard examples which I believe to be of interest. Due to the unfortunate fact that exchange market liquidity is limited, I am of the opinion that producers, if they think fit, should start with only a limited amount of their availability covered by such swap arrangements. Nevertheless, I wish to draw the attention of producers and buyers of crude oil and oil products to the benefits of swap arrangements, as described in this paper. (author)

Market power mitigation, monitoring and surveillance in the Ontario electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barrett, A.

2001-01-01

This power point presentation discussed the meaning of market power and how Ontario Power Generation's market power is one of the most contentious market implementation issues in the deregulation debate. Market power was described as being the ability to profitably maintain prices above competitive levels for a significant period of time. The presentation referred to the key elements of the market power mitigation framework (MPMF) of Ontario and how it strikes a balance between the three major objectives of creating a competitive marketplace, to pay down the stranded debt, and to ensure viable power generation in the province. It was concluded that there will be a viable competitive market in Ontario in the near future, but a pragmatic, fact-based view of the market is needed to allow market forces to work. It was emphasized that markets by nature are unpredictable and volatility does not necessarily means that the market is not working. The author stated that Ontario Power Generation recognized that it is important to coordinate roles and responsibilities to minimize duplication and reduce confusion. tags., figs

Oil Dependence: The Value of R{ampersand}D

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greene, D.L.

1997-07-01

Over the past quarter century the United States` dependence on oil has cost its economy on the order of $5 trillion. Oil dependence is defined as economically significant consumption of oil, given price inelastic demand in the short and long run and given the ability of the OPEC cartel to use market power to influence oil prices. Although oil prices have been lower and more stable over the past decade, OPEC still holds the majority of the world`s conventional oil resources according to the best available estimates. OPEC`s share of the world oil market is likely to grow significantly in the future,restoring much if not all of their former market power. Other than market share, the key determinants of OPEC`s market power are the long and short run price elasticities of world oil demand and supply. These elasticities depend critically on the technologies of oil supply and demand, especially the technology of energy use in transportation. Research and development can change these elasticities in fundamental ways, and given the nature of the problem,the government has an important role to play in supporting such research.

Power market competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, J.

1998-01-01

In the Unites States the prospect of greater competition in wholesale power market was immediately eclipsed by talk of retail competition. Attempts to move to retail competition have been costly and complex. Prudent public policy and economic analyses suggest that retail competition not be implemented until it can first be demonstrated that effective competition exists in wholesale power markets [it

The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, Amelie, E-mail: acharles@audencia.co [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.darne@univ-nantes.f [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

2009-11-15

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable.

The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amelie; Darne, Olivier

2009-01-01

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

The efficiency of the crude oil markets. Evidence from variance ratio tests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, Amelie [Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Joneliere, 44312 Nantes (France); Darne, Olivier [LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN-IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, 44322 Nantes (France)

2009-11-15

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the crude oil markets, using daily data over the period 1982-2008. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for two crude oil markets (UK Brent and US West Texas Intermediate) is tested with non-parametric variance ratio tests developed by [Wright J.H., 2000. Alternative variance-ratio tests using ranks and signs. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18, 1-9] and [Belaire-Franch J. and Contreras D., 2004. Ranks and signs-based multiple variance ratio tests. Working paper, Department of Economic Analysis, University of Valencia] as well as the wild-bootstrap variance ratio tests suggested by [Kim, J.H., 2006. Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests. Economics Letters, 92, 38-43]. We find that the Brent crude oil market is weak-form efficiency while the WTI crude oil market seems to be inefficiency on the 1994-2008 sub-period, suggesting that the deregulation have not improved the efficiency on the WTI crude oil market in the sense of making returns less predictable. (author)

OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ante Nosić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

Market based solutions for power pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wangensteen, Ivar

2002-06-01

The report examines how the price for effect reserves, spot market power and regulated power is formed provided ideal market conditions rule. Primarily the price determining factors in a market for power reserves are examined and how the connection between this market and the energy market (the spot market) is. In a free market there would be a balance between what the actors may obtain by operating in the open market for power reserves/regulated power on the one hand and the market for spot power on the other. Primarily we suppose that the desired amount of power reserve is known. Secondly the problem constellation is extended to comprise the size of the effect reserves i.e. the optimising of the requirement to the power reserves. The optimal amount of power reserves is obtained when there is a balance between the cost and the benefit. This optimal balance is achieved when expected macro economical loss due to outfacing balances against the cost of maintaining larger reserves. By using a simple model it is demonstrated that a system operator regulates the maximal price in the regulated market and this equals the rationing price. The actors will offer sufficient reserves even if the reserve price is zero (provided risk neutrality). If the maximal price for regulated power is lower the price of effect reserves will rise. Based on the same simple model calculations are made for how short and long term market balance will be for increasing demands

Assembling Markets for Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pallesen, Trine

hand, as an economic good, wind power is said to suffer from (techno-economic) ‘disabilities’, such as high costs, fluctuating and unpredictable generation, etc. Therefore, because of its performance as a good, it is argued that the survival of wind power in the market is premised on different......This project studies the making of a market for wind power in France. Markets for wind power are often referred to as ‘political markets: On the one hand, wind power has the potential to reduce CO2-emissions and thus stall the effects of electricity generation on climate change; and on the other...... instruments, some of which I will refer to as ‘prosthetic devices’. This thesis inquires into two such prosthetic devices: The feed-in tariff and the wind power development zones (ZDE) as they are negotiated and practiced in France, and also the ways in which they affect the making of markets for wind power....

Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

OpenAIRE

Liu, Xing

2009-01-01

Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

Vertical integration as a source of market power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phelps, J.H.

1981-11-01

This paper has put forward a theory of vertial integration where the ability of a group of firms to engage in noncompetitive pricing is increased by altering conjectural variations. An analysis of conditions faced by major oil companies at refining indicated little likelihood of market power, short of a complex, secret price fixing agreement. Vertical integration to branded retail outlets appears to have created the ability to price noncompetitively without overt collusion. More interesting for vertical policy are the results on non price rivalry where excess profits appear to have been turned into social costs.

The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The economy of palm oil production and marketing in Igala land. ... Palm oil processing and marketing constituted one of the major occupations of the people as men, women and even the young ones ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

Market power in interactive environmental and energy markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amundsen, Eirik S; Nese, Gjermund

2017-01-01

electricity and TGC markets, and focus on the role of market power (i.e., Stackelberg leadership). One result is that a certificate system faced with market power may collapse into a system of per-unit subsidies. Also, the model shows that TGCs may be an imprecise instrument for regulating the generation......A market for tradable green certificates (TGCs) is strongly interwoven in the electricity market in that the producers of green electricity are also the suppliers of TGCs. Therefore, strategic interaction may result. We formulate an analytic equilibrium model for simultaneously functioning...

From the ecological niche to the mass market with 'Green Power Marketing' - 1st European Conference on Green Power Marketing 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

This report summarises the information presented at the European Conference on Green Power Marketing held in 2001 in St. Moritz, Switzerland. It takes a look at the market chances of ecologically produced electricity for use in Switzerland and for export. The opinions of experts from the areas of research, business, politics, marketing and non-governmental organisations that were presented at the meeting are summarised. European perspectives and trends in the USA are discussed and examples of green power marketing in the USA and Holland are given. Marketing issues and price policies are discussed, as are labelling strategies and customer perception of 'Green Power' issues. Also, sales issues including e-marketing, power-market rules and certificate trading are dealt with

Market Design and Supply Security in Imperfect Power Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schwenen, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Supply security in imperfect power markets is modelled under different market designs. In a uniform price auction for electricity with two firms, strategic behaviour may leave firms offering too few capacities and unable to supply all realized demand. Market design that relies oncapacity markets...... increases available generation capacities for sufficiently high capacity prices and consequently decreases energy prices. However, equilibrium capacity prices are non-competitive. Capacity markets can increase security of supply, but cannot mitigate market power, which is exercised in the capacity market...

The Dilemma of the Oil Market in the Current Geopolitical Context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Teodora Balaceanu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In an increasingly globalized world, where the effects of technology have an overwhelming impact on people's lives, meaning an increase in appetite for consumption of luxury goods, of lifestyle, it seems that conventional resources are becoming fewer and their use in industrial processes lead to environmental harm, at least from pollution. Essentially, oil prices influence governments, companies, and markets of raw materials markets of finite economic goods, markets of conventional and unconventional energy and an assumed oil crisis would lead to stronger inflections on the market, with repercussions on the overall level of prices, the oil price being generally regarded as decisive for the other prices in the economy.

Crude oil and stock markets. Stability, instability, and bubbles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, J. Isaac; Ratti, Ronald A.

2009-01-01

We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)

The development of market power in the Spanish power generation sector: Perspectives after market liberalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciarreta, Aitor; Nasirov, Shahriyar; Silva, Carlos

2016-01-01

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the market power problem in the Spanish power generation sector and examines how and to which extent the market has developed in terms of market power concerns after the market liberalization reforms. The methodology applied in this study includes typical ex-post structural and behavioral measures employed to estimate potential for market power, namely: concentration ratios (CR) (for the largest and the three largest suppliers), the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), Entropy, Pivotal Supply Index, the Residual Supply Index and Residual Demand Elasticity (RDE). The results are presented for the two largest Spanish generating companies (Endesa and Iberdrola) acting in the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), and in the Spanish Day-ahead electricity market. The results show evidence that these companies have behaved much more competitively in recent periods than in the beginning of the market liberalization. In addition, the paper discusses important structural and regulatory changes through market liberalization processes in the Spanish Day-ahead electricity market. - Highlights: •Competition and regulation in the Spanish electricity market. •The methodology applied in this study: ex-post structural and behavioral measures. •Key dominant companies behaved more competitively in recent periods. •Important structural and regulatory changes in the Spanish electricity market.

Market risks and oilfield ownership - Refining oil and gas disclosures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kretzschmar, Gavin L.; Hatherly, David; Misund, Bard

2007-01-01

Market risk exposures of balance sheet asset values are becoming an increasingly important accounting issue. In oil and gas, oilfield exposures to oil prices are specific and contractual, presenting a contingency problem for investors, financial analysts, standard setting bodies and government agencies. Our paper uses an extensive sample of 292 oilfields to provide evidence that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supplementary disclosures do not capture the price sensitivities of oil and gas disclosures implicit in the two main forms of oilfield ownership, concession and production sharing contracts (PSCs). Current asset disclosures neither distinguish between global variations in oilfield ownership terms, nor on market risk implications for the value of oilfield assets. Importantly, we show that unlike concessions, reserve and production disclosures vary in response to oil price movements for PSC regimes. Our results highlight the need to differentiate PSC disclosures from concession fields, and to fully reflect price risks implicit in oilfield ownership contracts. We extend findings by Rajgopal [1999. Early evidence on the informativeness of the SEC's market risk disclosures: the case of commodity price risk exposure of oil and gas producers. The Accounting Review 74, 251-280] and propose refinements to capture market risk in financial reporting. (author)

Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC equity markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talat Ulussever

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes the effect of crude oil prices on herd behavior among investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC stock markets. Using firm level data from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges, we examine equity return dispersions within industry portfolios and test whether investor herds exist in these markets. We then assess whether crude oil price movements have any effect on the investment behavior of traders in the aforementioned markets. Our findings reveal significant evidence supporting herd behavior in all GCC equity markets with the exception of Oman and Qatar, more consistently during periods of market losses. Furthermore, we find significant oil price effects on herd behavior in these markets, particularly during periods of extreme positive changes in the price of oil. Our findings suggest that investors’ tendency to act as a herd in the said markets is significantly affected by the developments in the oil market.

The peak of oil production-Timings and market recognition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Almeida, Pedro de; Silva, Pedro D.

2009-01-01

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments

Market design and supply security in imperfect power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwenen, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Supply security in imperfect power markets is modelled under different market designs. In a uniform price auction for electricity with two firms, strategic behaviour may leave firms offering too few capacities and unable to supply all realized demand. Market design that relies on capacity markets increases available generation capacities for sufficiently high capacity prices and consequently decreases energy prices. However, equilibrium capacity prices are non-competitive. Capacity markets can increase security of supply, but cannot mitigate market power, which is exercised in the capacity market instead of the energy market. - Highlights: • I model two power generating firms who compete to serve stochastic demand in a multiunit uniform price auction. • In equilibrium, blackout probabilities can arise through capacity withholding. • Capacity mechanisms decrease capacity withholding and the expected energy price. • With dominant firms, capacity mechanisms are only effective if capacity prices are non-competitive and include a mark-up for leaving the energy-only market optimum

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

Dynamics of the Asia-Pacific oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, N.D.

1996-01-01

The Asia-Pacific could become the world's largest oil market with an estimated 10 million b/d new demand by 2010. At the same time less Asian crude will be available for the world market. Refinery expansion is likely to be insufficient and imports of refined products will rise. The Asia-Pacific market could be the world's largest middle distillate importer and a major centre of trade for essentially every other petroleum product and form of commercial energy. (Author)

Utility-Marketer Partnerships. An Effective Strategy for Marketing Green Power?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L. A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brown, E. S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2006-04-01

This paper explores whether partnerships between utilities and independent marketers are an effective strategy for marketing green power. We present case studies of voluntary and mandatory partnerships covering green power program design and implementation in both regulated and restructured electricity markets. We also include perspectives (based on interviews) from utilities, marketers, and regulators involved in developing and implementing these partnerships. From these case studies and interviews, we describe lessons learned about developing effective partnerships, including such issues as respective roles in marketing and administration, product branding, and contract and incentive structures. Based on experience to date, strategic partnerships between utilities and marketers can be an effective approach to marketing green power. Partnerships leverage the sales and resource procurement experience of marketers and the utility’s reputation and access to customers. Further, partnerships can create greater incentives for success because marketers have a vested financial interest in maximizing customer participation and green power sales.

Utility-Marketing Partnerships: An Effective Strategy for Marketing Green Power?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bird, L. A.; Brown, E. S.

2006-04-01

This paper explores whether partnerships between utilities and independent marketers are an effective strategy for marketing green power. We present case studies of voluntary and mandatory partnerships covering green power program design and implementation in both regulated and restructured electricity markets. We also include perspectives (based on interviews) from utilities, marketers, and regulators involved in developing and implementing these partnerships. From these case studies and interviews, we describe lessons learned about developing effective partnerships, including such issues as respective roles in marketing and administration, product branding, and contract and incentive structures. Based on experience to date, strategic partnerships between utilities and marketers can be an effective approach to marketing green power. Partnerships leverage the sales and resource procurement experience of marketers and the utility?s reputation and access to customers. Further, partnerships can create greater incentives for success because marketers have a vested financial interest in maximizing customer participation and green power sales.

Islamic versus conventional stock market and its co-movement with crude oil: a wavelet analysis

OpenAIRE

Kamarudin, Eka Azrin; Masih, Mansur

2015-01-01

Crude oil market plays an important role in economic development and its price changes give huge impact to the financial markets. In this paper, the relationships between crude oil and stock markets are examined. This study has selected Malaysian Islamic and conventional stock markets as a case study. Financialisation of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfolios warrant an analysis of the relationship between crude oil and stock market indices at various time scales or i...

SUSTAINABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A MARKET INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana Chalil

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Crude Palm Oil (CPO is the biggest consumed vegetable oil in the world. The increase in CPO production raises concern on the environmental impact even outside the producing countries. As a response to this matter, the EU has made a requirement to only import certified CPO (CSPO. India and China, the two biggest importers in the world, are less restrictive to the environmental issues, and their demands are more influenced by CPO price levels. These countries are the main export markets for Indonesia and Malaysia, the two biggest CPO exporters in the world. This research using monthly price data from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, EU28, India, China, Indonesia and Malaysia. Market integrations are tested with Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results show that these markets are integrated, but European countries are unlikely to lead the price movement. Therefore, the concern on sustainable certification from the European countries still slowly spreads to other main importers, resulting in low absorption of CSPO. Keywords: market integration; sustainable palm oil; seemingly unrelated regression; vector Error correction model

The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

2016-01-01

We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

Oil sands market and transportation solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandahl, R.

2004-01-01

This presentation outlined the immense potential of the western Canadian oil sands reserves. Recoverable reserves have been estimated at 180 billion barrels, with production forecasts estimated at 5 million barrels per day by 2030. Resource development is occurring at a time when the world's largest oil importer is increasing supplies through concern for security of supply. The second and third largest oil importers in the world are experiencing economic and energy demand growth. These factors underscore the motivation for rapid growth of the Western Canadian Oil Sands reserves. One of the challenges that must be addressed is to ensure that incremental markets for the increased production are accessed. Another challenge is to ensure adequate infrastructure in terms of pipeline capacity to ensure deliverability of the product. tabs., figs

Price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Emmanouilides, C.; Fousekis, P.; Grigoriadis, V.

2014-06-01

The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence in the principal EU olive oil markets (Spain, Italy and Greece). To this end, it utilizes monthly olive oil price data and the statistical tool of copulas. The empirical results suggest that prices are likely to boom together but not to crash together; this is especially true for the prices of the two most important players, Italy (importer) and Spain (exporter). The finding of asymmetric price co-movements implies that the three principal spatial olive oil markets in the EU cannot be thought of as one great pool. (Author)

Power market model with energy- and power dimension

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnsen, T.A.; Larsen, B.M.

1995-01-01

This report discusses a mathematical model of the Norwegian power market. The year is divided into three seasons. Each season is subdivided into a high-load period and a low-load period according to the demand. High-load occurs in daytime on workdays while low-load occurs at night and on holidays. The model is intended to be a tool for studying variations in prices, production, demand and trade throughout the year in a market of free competition. The model establishes equilibrium prices of electricity in Norway in high-load and low-load periods. Equilibrium prices with added transport tariffs and charges give customer an indication of the cost of using electricity. And the equilibrium prices indicate to the power producers the value of further energy or power capacity. Examples of calculations using the model show that extended export and import between Norway and other countries affect power prices and production in Norway. In the examples, power intensive industry and wood processing are subjected to market prices on energy. World market prices which give unilateral power export in the high-load periods cause the Norwegian power prices to rise strongly. If to the export from Norway in periods of high-load there corresponds import in periods of low-load, then the pressure on the prices in the power market is significantly reduced. A more extensive power exchange implies that foreign power producers may use the Norwegian power system to avoid large variations in their thermal power production. 23 refs., 21 figs., 1 tab

The instability of world oil market and its impact on economic development: Indonesia's experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patmosukismo, S.

1991-01-01

The world oil market has been characterized by fluctuating prices which have a direct impact on the world economy. If the world oil price rises in real terms, upstream activities become more attractive to producers, and if the price declines, downstream opportunities become more attractive. The world oil market is currently determined not only by producers and consumers, but also by the futures trade. In addition, the elasticity of oil prices has increased since the 1970s through competition among producers and competition from other energy sources. The Asia Pacific countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are thus heavily dependent on oil, but generally have small reserves. Their reserves/production ratio is ca 20 years, with a major share coming from China and Indonesia. The current situation of tight and inadequate supply may increase the region's dependence on Middle East sources. The effects of the three recent major oil crises on the Asia Pacific countries are reviewed and the role of oil and gas in Indonesia's economic development is described. Export earnings from oil and gas represent a major share of total Indonesian export revenues, and taxes and receipts from oil companies continue to be the largest receipts in Indonesian government revenues. Slow changes in the primary fuel mix and high growth in domestic consumption may turn Indonesia into a net oil importer before the year 2000. A major effort to decrease domestic oil consumption has been implemented by using natural gas and coal in the power generation sector. On the supply side, recoverable oil and gas reserves of 50 billion bbl and 200 trillion ft 3 respectively may be present but their development depends on the investment scheme of the continuing exploration program

NEB view of development potential and markets for heavy crude oil. [Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scotland, W A; Gutek, A M.H.

1977-01-01

The phased reduction in total crude oil and equivalent exports, from 911 Mpbd in 1974 to 465 Mbpd in 1976, has no doubt had a disruptive effect on the rate of development of heavy crude oil reserves. The effect could have become more series as total exports continued to drop. However, the separate licensing of heavy crude oil for export will allow heavy crude oil to enter available markets until the early 1980s. The construction of one or several upgrading facilities by the early 1980s, combined with growing domestic requirements for heavy crude oil feedstock, could make the disposition of heavy oil largely independent of the purchasing patterns of export markets. The prospect of increased market stability combined with increasing cash flows should provide an appropriate environment to optimize the role that heavy oil resources can play in Canada's future energy balance. (12 refs.)

Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal C. Moore

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential available to Canadian producers gaining access to new overseas markets. Success in this arena will allow Canada to reap incredible economic benefits. For example, the near term benefits for increased access to Gulf Coast markets after mid-continent bottlenecks are removed, are significant, representing nearly 10$ US per barrel for Canadian producers. On the Pacific Coast, the world market is represented by growing capacity for heavy crude products in emerging Asian markets including Japan, Korea and China and existing heavy crude facilities in California and the west coast. Here, in the reference scenario for California and Asia the benefits are assumed to begin in 2020. The differential value range in California in 2020 is estimated at $7.20US per barrel and escalates to $8.77US by 2030. In Asia, the benefit range is estimated to grow from $11.15US per barrel in 2020 to $13.60US in 2030. Those higher prices for Canadian heavy oil would translate into significant increases in profits, jobs and government revenues. With better access and new pipeline capacity, oil producers will see more efficient access to international markets which can add up to $131 billion to Canada’s GDP between 2016 and 2030 in the reference scenario. This amounts to over $27 billion in federal, provincial and municipal tax receipts, along with an estimated 649,000 person-years of employment. Alberta will be the principal but not sole beneficiary from increased access to world market pricing. Most provinces and territories will realize fiscal and economic gains from the distribution and sale of products reflecting reduced costs and increased access to refineries for heavy oil. The key to this change is the elimination of current bottlenecks in transport and the expansion of a network of pipelines that can

Long-term prospects for oil market stability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Subroto, Dr [OPEC, Vienna (AT)

1989-10-01

OPEC recognize that energy consumption has its social costs and benefits, and that some energy sources impose fewer costs on society. We must consider the environmental implications of oil extraction. Our policies today should enable future generations to secure their energy needs, and OPEC is well-positioned to supply them. An inward-looking OPEC, distracted by internal wranglings and inconsistencies, cannot expect to be a stabilizing force in the oil markets. We have sought, therefore, to put our own house in order. Aside from the debate on depletion policy, a major strain on OPEC stability is the growing tendency towards regionalization in the world oil market. And the absence of universally acceptable quota allocation criteria means that OPEC may have to live with instability for some time to come, but this will be manageable in the short run. In the medium term, however, the call on OPEC oil in the 1990s is predicted to rise to a level commensurate with the sustainable capacities of member states. Producers and consumers have a common interest and should share a similar perspective on the inter-dependence between energy, the environment and economic development. (author).

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum; Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed

2009-01-01

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk. Application to oil market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marimoutou, Velayoudoum [GREQAM, Universite de la Mediterranee, Institut Francais de Pondichery (France); Raggad, Bechir; Trabelsi, Abdelwahed [BESTMOD, Institut Superieur de Gestion de Tunis (Tunisia)

2009-07-15

Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1, 1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. (author)

Electric power geneation and other gas market opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucy, M.S.

1991-01-01

The future market for natural gas in the northeast USA is discussed. A strong market demand for natural gas is foreseen to continue because of the need for clean burning electric generation facilities and the low saturation of overall natural gas use in the northeast. Although total gas sales increased 30% in the northeast from 1978 to 1989, and conversion of commercial businesses and houses to natural gas use is increasing, the northeast still remains highly dependent on oil as an energy source. For example, nearly 60% of all the oil used to generate electricity and ca 70% of all the home heating oil used the USA is burned in the northeast. The northeast currently receives ca 4.3 billion ft 3 /d of gas, 80% from Louisiana and Texas. With the addition of a number of pipeline projects, another 4.2 billion ft 3 /d will be added by 1992. Power demand is growing, and many New England generation plants are 30 years old or more and in need of upgrading. Natural gas is the fuel of choice for new installations because of pollution regulations, low capital costs, competitive gas pricing, and other factors. A recent report projects that ca 68% of the planned cogeneration capacity in New England will be fuelled by natural gas, requiring an additional 200.7 billion ft 3 /d in the northeast. Another market with strong potential for continued growth is the residential sector, where only 61% of households with gas service use gas for heating. Natural gas vehicle development is being stimulated by mandates for alternative fuelled vehicle fleets; an increase in gas demand of 600 billion ft 3 by 2005 is projectd, based on increased use of natural gas vehicles. 2 figs., 6 tabs

The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balcilar, Mehmet; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to analyse the causal link between monthly oil futures price changes and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index changes. The causal linkage between oil and stock markets is modelled using a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters so as to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. A Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model, in which causal link between the series is stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain, is used for inferring time-varying causality. Although we do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality, the results based on the MS-VAR model clearly show that oil futures price has strong regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index during various sub-periods in the sample, while there is a weak evidence for the regime prediction power of a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock indexes. The regime-prediction non-causality tests on the MS-VAR model show that both variables are useful for making inference about the regime process and that the evidence on regime-prediction causality is primarily found in the equation describing a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock market returns. The evidence from the conditional non-causality tests shows that past information on the other series fails to improve the one step ahead prediction for both oil futures and stock returns. - Highlights: • We analyse the causal links between oil futures price and a sub-grouping of S and P 500 index. • The causal links are modelled using a regime switching model. • We do not find any lead–lag type Granger causality between the series. • The results show that oil futures price has regime prediction power for a sub-grouping of S and P 500 stock index

Perspectives of the electric power industry amid the transforming global power generation markets

Science.gov (United States)

Makarov, A. A.; Mitrova, T. A.; Veselov, F. V.; Galkina, A. A.; Kulagin, V. A.

2017-10-01

A scenario-based prognosis of the evolution of global power generation markets until 2040, which was developed using the Scaner model-and-information complex, was given. The perspective development of fuel markets, vital for the power generation industry, was considered, and an attempt to predict the demand, production, and prices of oil, gas, coal, and noncarbon resources across various regions of the world was made. The anticipated decline in the growth of the global demand for fossil fuels and their sufficiency with relatively low extraction expenses will maintain the fuel prices (the data hereinafter are given as per 2014 prices) lower than their peak values in 2012. The outrunning growth of demand for electric power is shown in comparison with other power resources by regions and large countries in the world. The conditions of interfuel competition in the electric power industry considering the changes in anticipated fuel prices and cost indicators for various power generation technologies were studied. For this purpose, the ratios of discounted costs of electric power production by new gas and coal TPPs and wind and solar power plants were estimated. It was proven that accounting the system effects (operation modes, necessary duplicating and reserving the power of electric power plants using renewable energy sources) notably reduces the competitiveness of the renewable power industry and is not always compensated by the expected lowering of its capital intensity and growth of fuel for TPPs. However, even with a moderate (in relation to other prognoses) growth of the role of power plants using renewable energy sources, they will triple electric power production. In this context, thermal power plants will preserve their leadership covering up to 60% of the global electric power production, approximately half using gas.

The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

1992-01-01

Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

Global power: Markets and strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poirer, J.L.

1998-01-01

The author will first present an updated view of the global power market activity, including opportunities in power generation, transmission and distribution. This will include a review of the trends in closings and transaction flowed by type of activity and geographic area. Estimates will be based on Hagler Bailly's comprehensive database on global power transactions and project announcements. The firm has also worked with dozens of global power companies since 1990. Second, the author will review trends in terms of regulatory changes, project cost trends, developers' project experiences, and financing issues. This systematic review will be the foundation for projection of future market activity (e.g., number of closing by type of project through 2000). A forecast of future greenfield and privatization activity will be provided and the key markets will be highlighted. Third, the author will present an updated view of the competition in the global power market (including the various types of competitors and changes in their respective market posture). Finally, the author will discuss the various types of strategies and business models that are followed by key global power players

Oil Price and Equity Markets: Modeling Co-Movement and Conditional Value at Risk

OpenAIRE

Solvang, Jørn; Aarø, Thomas

2017-01-01

Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies the co-movement between oil prices and stock markets during the period 2006 – 2017 utilizing quantile regression. The studied stock indices are AEX, BOVESPA, CAC40, DAX30, EUROSTOXX50, FTSE100, SMI, S&P500 and TSX60, and the United States Oil Fund ETF represents the oil price. We investigate the co-movement and find a positive and significant co-movement between oil returns and stock market returns across quantiles for the stock market return d...

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

Near-term world oil markets : economics, politics and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwarkin, J.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses the three main factors that will determine how OPEC oil production will impact on energy markets. OPEC reassured the market in September 2001, following the terrorist attack in New York that it would not cut oil production, but by December 2001, OPEC was threatening that it would cut production unless many key non-OPEC producers collaborated to shore up prices. On January 1, 2002, OPEC members went ahead with a quota reduction, based on pledges of cuts from the non-OPEC oil exporting countries. World economies, oil demand, and the path which the U.S. economy will take during 2002 is critical in determining what happens next in terms of oil production from OPEC. Another important factor is knowing whether non-OPEC producers will actually cut output to a significant extent. The most critical factor will be the response by OPEC members if non-OPEC exporting countries do not keep their promise

Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2010-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

2009-01-01

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

2009-01-15

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Multivariate FIGARCH and long memory process: evidence of oil price markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadhem Selmi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Oil price markets can benefit from a better considerate of how shocks can affect volatility through time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of two crude oil markets WTI and Brent oil price between January 1, 1996 and March 17, 2014. First, we identify the FIGARCH process proposed by Baillie et al. (1996 [Baillie, R.T., Bollerslev, T., & Mikkelsen, H.O., (1996, Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74, 3-30.] and investigate some of its statistical proprieties and then incorporate this information into the volatility modelling. We also show that outliers can bias the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Taking into account outliers on the volatility modelling process improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets.

Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Economics of palm oil marketing in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria. ... Data on trades socio economic factors, marketing cost and marketing margin were collected from 80 traders randomly selected from the ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

Optimal electricity market for wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holttinen, H.

2005-01-01

This paper is about electricity market operation when looking from the wind power producers' point of view. The focus in on market time horizons: how many hours there is between the closing and delivering the bids. The case is for the Nordic countries, the Nordpool electricity market and the Danish wind power production. Real data from year 2001 was used to study the benefits of a more flexible market to wind power producer. As a result of reduced regulating market costs from better hourly predictions to the market, wind power producer would gain up to 8% more if the time between market bids and delivery was shortened from the day ahead Elspot market (hourly bids by noon for 12-36 h ahead). An after sales market where surplus or deficit production could be traded 2 h before delivery could benefit the producer almost as much, gaining 7%

The Conflict in Syria: Key Issues and Consequences on the International Market of Crude Oil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Papatulică

2013-07-01

Full Text Available At the end of August 2013, the international prices of Brent crude rose to a 17-month high ($ 117.8 /barrel as Western powers, mainly USA, readied a military strike against Syria, and traders and analysts cited concerns over stability in the Middle East. The main concern was the risk that Western intervention in Syria could prompt a wider regional conflict, given the support that Iran has provided to the regime of Syria. The attack failed to materialize, because U.S. and Russia reached an agreement with the goal of disarming Syria’s chemical weapon arsenal, and consequently the prices declined, but the risk of geopolitical and social unrest movementsAlpha is still high, so that a reactivation of geopolitical tensions in the extended area of Middle East and north Africa is anytime possible with the afferent disruptive effects on the international oil market. We tried to answer to some questions in order to clear up the background of the problem: 1 What was the real stake of the U.S. plan to intervene in Syria: the concern generated by chemical weapons or U.S. geostrategic interests in the wider Middle East? 2 Why Syria matters to oil market, given that it is not a major oil producer (as was Libya, nor is it a major transit point for oil and gas exports (as is Egypt? 3 The aftermath of a serious military action targeted against the Middle Eastern country and “qui prodest”? 4 Will Iran’s possible return to the world oil market send oil prices down, and how much?

Coupled energy and reactive power market clearing considering power system security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabiee, Abdorreza; Shayanfar, Heidarali; Amjady, Nima

2009-01-01

In a deregulated environment, when talking about electricity markets, one usually refers to energy market, paying less attention to the reactive power market. Active and reactive powers are, however, coupled through the AC power flow equations and branch loading limits as well as the synchronous generators capability curves. However, the sequential approach for energy and reactive power markets cannot present the optimal solution due to the interactions between these markets. For instance, clearing of the reactive power market can change active power dispatch (e.g. due to a change of transmission system losses and the capability curve limitation), which can lead to degradation of the energy market clearing point. This paper presents a coupled day ahead energy and reactive power market based on the pay-at-MCP settlement mechanism. Besides, the proposed coupled framework considers voltage stability and security issues and branch loading limits. The coupled market is cleared through optimal power flow (OPF). Its objective function includes total payment of generating units for their active power production along with the total payment function (TPF) of units for their reactive power compensation. Moreover, lost opportunity cost (LOC) of the units is also considered. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is examined on the IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System

Coupled energy and reactive power market clearing considering power system security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rabiee, Abdorreza; Shayanfar, Heidarali [Center of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Electrical Engineering Department, Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), Tehran (Iran); Amjady, Nima [Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan (Iran)

2009-04-15

In a deregulated environment, when talking about electricity markets, one usually refers to energy market, paying less attention to the reactive power market. Active and reactive powers are, however, coupled through the AC power flow equations and branch loading limits as well as the synchronous generators capability curves. However, the sequential approach for energy and reactive power markets cannot present the optimal solution due to the interactions between these markets. For instance, clearing of the reactive power market can change active power dispatch (e.g. due to a change of transmission system losses and the capability curve limitation), which can lead to degradation of the energy market clearing point. This paper presents a coupled day ahead energy and reactive power market based on the pay-at-MCP settlement mechanism. Besides, the proposed coupled framework considers voltage stability and security issues and branch loading limits. The coupled market is cleared through optimal power flow (OPF). Its objective function includes total payment of generating units for their active power production along with the total payment function (TPF) of units for their reactive power compensation. Moreover, lost opportunity cost (LOC) of the units is also considered. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is examined on the IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System. (author)

Energy Markets in the United States: The Influence of Politics, Regulations, and Markets on Energy Development in the Oil and Gas and Wind Industries

Science.gov (United States)

Maguire, Karen Kay

2011-12-01

My dissertation focuses on the influence of politics, policies, and markets in determining oil and natural gas and wind energy development. In the first chapter, I examine the role of federal elected political influence and market factors in determining the acres of oil and natural gas leases issued on Bureau of Management (BLM) lands in the western United States between 1978 and 2008. I seek to determine if the political party and ideology of the federal political environment influence the number of acres that are leased and if there is disparate federal political influence in states that have a large amount of federal lands. Using a random effects Tobit model for a 17-state sample of the westernmost states in the contiguous United States, I find that more conservative federal political influence leads to additional leasing. The results are consistent across Senate committee leaders, Senate majority leadership, and the President's office. The further found that the influence of politics on leasing is not stronger in states with more federal lands. In the second chapter, I analyze the influence of state and federal political party changes and market factors on state oil and natural gas permitting. My findings, using a first-differenced empirical model for two samples, a 19-state sample, from 1990--2007, and a 14-state sample, from 1977--2007, indicate that the influence of state political party changes are trumped by economic factors. Oil and gas prices are the main drivers of permitting changes, while the state political party changes for the state legislatures and Governor's office are consistently not significant. In the third chapter I focus on the role of electricity markets and renewable energy regulation in wind development across the United States. My findings, using a random effects Tobit model with a 25-state sample, from 1994--2008, indicate that the implementation of state Renewables Portfolio Standards (RPS), the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC

Market for oil and gas assets defined in survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taggart, L.; Murry, D.A.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that hundreds of companies are currently active in the oil and gas acquisition and disposition marketplace, but unfortunately, the entire sale process within the industry continues to operate inefficiently. The mechanism for selling oil and gas properties in this secondary market - as used here, a term that excludes initial investments in oil and gas assets and sales of drilling program shares - is sort of catch-as-catch- can. Identifying who is seeking what type of property at any time is difficult, bordering on guesswork. A recent survey of 186 company representatives and individuals, who declared themselves as in the market, disclosed some of this information at a point in time

Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xin

consensus has been reached on OPEC strategic behavior. In the third chapter, we are interested in the effects of supply-side market power on oil price dynamics in face of different demand shocks, and model the oil market as composed of a strategic dominant firm and several competitive fringe producers. In each period, the dominant firm makes decision while taking fringe's response into consideration. We consider two alternative pricing strategies for the dominant firm. Our results show that this dynamic strategic model improves the potential of dominant firm-competitive fringe model in fitting and explaining real world data. A regime switch after a permanent demand increase generates a time path for price that looks like the price movements in the recent years.

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

2010-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

2010-11-15

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Challenges of executing heavy oil projects in today's market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunka, G.

2001-01-01

Alberta's industrial project scene from 1981 to 2000 was presented in this power point presentation with particular focus on proposed bitumen recovery projects and heavy oil project challenges. A graph depicting GTG world orders by region (Americas, Asia and Europe) showed that U.S. market continues to drive global growth. Major industrial projects in Alberta were highlighted and employment requirements by sector were outlined. In addition, mitigation measures that are needed to successfully deal with the unique challenges of today's market were described. It was noted that in recent years lower capital expenditure by the industry in general has resulted in corporate downsizing or mergers which in turn have resulted in lower technical and operational knowledge. Some of the current challenges facing the industry are new demands for water treatment expertise and an aging workforce. It was concluded that effective mitigation will require a disciplined approach within a flexible framework.1 tab., 7 figs

Developing new markets for oil sands products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crandall, G.

2004-01-01

This paper presents a review by Purvin and Gertz of western Canadian crude oil supply. This energy consulting firm provides advise to the energy sector. It suggests that oil sands production will surpass declining conventional production. Oil sands supply includes bitumen, synthetic crude oil (SCO), and diluent. It is forecasted that oil sands will increase from 42 per cent of western supply in 2002 to 78 per cent in 2015. The potential of Alberta's oil sands was discussed along with a recent study of refined products and petrochemicals from bitumen. Upgrading, refining and petrochemical case studies were presented. The author examined if a Canadian oil sands upgrading project with high capital costs can be competitive with competing projects in the United States and internationally. In addition to supply and demand issues, the presentation examined infrastructure capability and market potential in the United States. The economic potential and risks of preferred business cases compared to upgrading to SCO were also evaluated. 15 figs

Research on market power and market structure: A direct measure of market power of internet platform enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baowen Sun

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose – This paper aims to clear whether the monopoly structure of the internet industry has produced market power and discussed the welfare change of the internet industry monopoly. Design/methodology/approach – By using new empirical industrial organization methods and taking the e-commerce market as an example, the authors measured market power and economies of scale of the internet platform companies. Findings – Internet platform enterprises have formed scale economy, but it has not had market power, and the industry still maintains high levels of competition; also, the emergence of large enterprises may increase the welfare of consumers. Originality/value – The conclusion of this paper clarified actual competition status of internet industry and provided a new foothold for regulation and ideas for the traditional industry to crack the Marshall Conflict.

Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong Ronggang; Wei Yiming; Jiao Jianlin; Fan Ying

2008-01-01

This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing index and some oil companies. Some 'important' oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain much more than interest rates for manufacturing index

The outlook for US oil dependence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

1998-01-01

Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

2017-01-01

Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

Elasticity and competitiveness of Indonesia’s palm oil export in India market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Awan Setya Dewanta

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This study examines the elasticity and competitiveness of Indonsia’s palm oil export in the India market, 1990 -2014. The methods used are Error Correction Model (ECM and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA approach. The results shows that the price is inelastic in short-term but it is elastic in long-term. The income and exchange rate are elastic in the long-term. There is also a decline in competitiveness in the market India. These findings also demonstrate that palm oil is normal goods and can be easily substituted with the same products of other countries or other vegetable oils. It threatens the Indonesian palm oil competitiveness in the Indian market.

France liberalizes its power supply market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2004-01-01

The French market of power supply to companies is now free. This means that Electricite de France (EdF), the first world electric utility now has competitors in its domestic market. This is an important challenge for EdF because 3 millions of clients (70% of the French power consumption) are now concerned by the opening of the power market. According to A. Merlin, head of the energy transportation network (RTE), the opening of the market does not increase the risk of black-out, it just makes the operation of power networks more complex. The implementation of a single power transportation company (RTE) simplifies the mastery of networks safety but the development of investments is necessary to ensure the maintenance of 400 kV power lines. A comparison of the situation of power market liberalization is made for 6 countries (Germany, UK, Spain, US, Netherlands and Italy). Short paper. (J.S.)

Technical and economic framework for market enhancement of shale oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunger, J.W.; Devineni, A.V.

1992-01-01

By now it is apparent that production of syncrude from shale oil will not be economically viable as long as there is a stable and reasonably-priced supply of petroleum. The costs and financial risks of producing syncrude from oil shale, in the face of price constraints imposed by petroleum markets, are too high to warrant private investment. A possible solution is to develop commodity and specialty products from shale oil which command a high market value. In this fashion, the economics are partially uncoupled from petroleum and an opportunity for a greater price/cost differential is provided

Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

Turmoil on the International Oil Markets. Getting Used to Production Capacity Constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ten Kate, W.; Van Geuns, L.

2009-01-01

In 2008 the world experienced a prelude to the new realities of the international oil market. These new realities include a tight balance between supply and demand, the rapidly increased cost of the marginal barrel and the extreme price volatility. This price volatility has driven prices up $50 a barrel in the space of 5 months, only to drop $50 in 2 months after the July 14 peak of $147 a barrel when consumers began to seriously drop out of the market and inventories were drawn down. After the extreme downward correction, the crisis on the international capital markets led to dim expectations about economic growth for the rest of the year and 2009, and this also played a role. However, prices are expected to rebound again, reflecting the fundamental upward shift of oil prices from an average of about $70-80 a barrel to about $110-120 a barrel. This fundamental upward shift is due to a combination of so-called 'underground' and 'above ground' conditions. The 'underground' problems include the size, depth and geological complexities of new oil fields that are driving up the cost per barrel. These complex oil fields need to be taken into production, since 'above ground' problems limit International Oil Companies' (IOCs) ability to access the lower-cost oil in producing countries. The 'above ground' problems slow the pace of development of medium-cost oil in the largest producing countries in the Middle East and Russia. Despite the expectation of a continued demand for oil, oil exporting countries are concerned about the security of demand, and adapt their development plans accordingly. Moreover, with the increased prices of the last few years and the resulting increase in oil revenues, the management of the monetarised oil wealth has become a concern as well. The value of the dollar has been slipping and oil exporting countries tried to match this depreciation by increasing oil prices. China's rise as an important manufacturer in the world, with the accompanying

The price of fuel oil for power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu, G.J.Y.; Liaw, Y.Y.C.

1987-01-01

This study establishes a break-even analysis model for fuel oil generation. The authors calculate the break-even points of the international fuel oil prices for the existing coal-fired power plants, the nuclear power plants and the newly-built coal/oil-fired power plants

Russian oil prices: courting the world market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khartukov, E.M.

1995-01-01

The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Power plant engineering for overseas market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chun, K.S.

1994-12-31

Korea`s experience in power plant engineering for the overseas market is reviewed. The following topics are discussed: the Asian electric power market, ordering characteristics, country situations, and overseas market requirements.

Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorenz, A.

2000-04-01

The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market.

Golden age: marketers extract the most from oil and natural gas trade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenz, A.

2000-01-01

The complexity of the oil and natural gas markets, the complex factors which interact to produce the price of oil or natural gas on any given day, and the role of marketers in this high stakes game are discussed. While oil and natural gas prices are very good today compared to the low prices through much of the 1990s, marketers are now concerned about the ability of Canadian fields to produce enough to fill the expanded pipelines and meet the rising demand. As the oil and natural gas industry in Canada is moving from a pipeline-constrained environment to a resource-constrained environment, the question of declining reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the resulting surplus in pipeline capacity is one of the most serious issues facing industry in the immediate future. This is especially true of natural gas where the cost of transportation, which can be as high as 30 per cent, is one of major importance to gas marketers. Locking in prices or allowing prices to float can make the difference between huge losses or gains depending on the interplay of the various factor that influence price fluctuations. Examples of how decisions about oil and gas prices are made, and the various outcomes that may result from marketer decisions are described to illustrate the vagaries of the natural gas market

Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-07-01

The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

Does wind energy mitigate market power in deregulated electricity markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Moshe, Ori; Rubin, Ofir D.

2015-01-01

A rich body of literature suggests that there is an inverse relationship between wind power penetration rate into the electricity market and electricity prices, but it is unclear whether these observations can be generalized. Therefore, in this paper we seek to analytically characterize market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. For this purpose, we expand a recently developed theoretical framework to facilitate flexibility in modeling the structure of the electric industry with respect to the degree of market concentration and diversification in the ownership of wind power capacity. The analytical results and their attendant numerical illustrations indicate that the introduction of wind energy into the market does not always depress electricity prices. Such a drop in electricity prices is likely to occur when the number of firms is large enough or the ownership of wind energy is sufficiently diversified, or most often a combination of the two. Importantly, our study defines the circumstances in which the question of which type of firm invests in wind power capacity is crucial for market prices. - Highlights: • Studies show that electricity prices decrease with increased wind power capacity. • We investigate market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. • Average prices for wind energy are systematically lower than average market prices. • Conventional generation firms may increase market power by investing in wind farms. • Energy policy should seek to diversify the ownership of wind power capacity

Eleventh CERI [Canadian Energy Research Inst.] international oil and gas markets conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

At a conference on international oil and gas markets, papers were presented on world oil and gas markets; energy policies; regulatory policies; supply and demand scenarios; environmental issues; the markets and industries in individual countries such as the former Soviet Union, USA, Canada, and the United Kingdom; business strategies; geopolitics of energy; and coalbed methane supplies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 22 papers from this conference

Market integration of Virtual Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Mette Kirschmeyer; Hansen, Lars Henrik; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

2013-01-01

develop a three stage market model, which includes Day-Ahead (Spot), Intra-Day and Regulating Power Markets. This allows us to test the hypothesis that the Virtual Power Plant can generate additional profit by trading across several markets. We find that even though profits do increase as more markets...

Marketing opportunities and challenges for Canada's oil sands industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This report demonstrated that effective marketing of Canadian oil sands products has been vital to the success of the industry in the past. Future success was expected to depend on having efficient transportation systems for the industry's products, unrestricted access to markets, and a range of products can competitively meet the needs of specific markets and customs. 9 ills

Investigating Food and Beverage Industry Market Structure and Market Power Based on Leo and Bresnahan’s Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Nabishahikitash

2016-03-01

. Suppose you have two firms producing the same good, so that the industry price is determined by the combined output of the two firms (think of the water duopoly in Cournot's original 1838 account. Now suppose that each firm has what is called the "Bertrand Conjecture" of −1. This means that if firm A increases its output, it conjectures that firm B will reduce its output to exactly offset firm A's increase, so that the total output and hence price remain unchanged. With the Bertrand Conjecture, the firms act as if they believe that the market price is unaffected by their own output, because each firm believes that the other firm will adjust its output so that total output will be constant. At the other extreme is the Joint-Profit maximizing conjecture of +1. In this case each firm believes that the other firm will imitate exactly any change it makes in output, which leads (with constant marginal cost to the firms behaving like a single monopoly supplier. The results show that it is significant uncompetitive pattern for 18 of the 19 industries. Existence of oligopoly industry for 12 shows the non-competitiveness of this industry. The flour and cereals production industry has 2.24 degrees of collusion and the tea industry has 2.14 degrees of collusion. Degree of conjectural variation is between 0.43 and 2.24. These numbers are related to carbonated soft drinks industry and production of flour and cereals. Conclusion: This paper discusses the Market Structure and the Degree of Market Power and Collusion Index of Food and Beverage industry on the basis of Modern Industrial Organization (NEIO with Bresnahan- Leo (1982 Approach. For this Purpose, data of ISIC Four- Digit Code is used to investigate the 19 industries for the years 2005-2011. The result showsthat competitive conditions for 18 Industriesaresignificant. The degree of Market Power is between 0.43 and 2.24.12.The industry has Oligopolistic Market and Production of Oil and Fat Industry has a Monopoly Market close to

Workshop Papers: Directions and Marketing of Synthetic Crude Oil and Heavy Oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This workshop was organized by the National Centre for Upgrading Technology in an effort to bring together experts from the various sectors of the petroleum industry to outline their views of the directions that the synthetic crude oil market will pursue over the next decade and into the 21. century. The motivation for the Workshop came from the many announcements during 1996 and 1997 by several Canadian oil companies about plans to initiate or expand their heavy oil and synthetic crude production. During the same period, at least one US refiner also announced plans to revamp an existing refinery to allow it to process Canadian heavy oil and synthetic crude. The workshop was organized to review these plans and to discuss such questions as (1) Would the selected technologies be the familiar carbon rejection or hydrogen addition methods, or would there be radical advanced technologies? (2) Would the products be fully or partially upgraded? (3) How would they be processed in the refinery? (4) Would there be a market? This collection of papers or viewgraphs comprise all the formal presentations given at the workshop. The final section also contains the edited notes recorded during the question and answer periods. refs., tabs., figs

Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franco Rosa

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

Canada's oil sands, opportunities and challenges to 2015 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-05-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report provides an assessment of the current state of the oil sands industry and the potential for growth. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's oil sands, one of the world's largest hydrocarbon resources. Initial production of Canada's oil sands began in 1967. The resource has become more economic to develop in recent years due to higher energy prices and new technologies. The economic potential of Canada's oil sands has been recognized internationally. Canadian oil sands production in 2004 will surpass 160,000 cubic metres per day. By 2015, production is expected to more than double to meet market demands. The challenges facing the industry include higher natural gas prices, capital cost overruns and environmental impacts. The major factors that affect the rate of oil sands development include natural gas supply, energy demand, oil and gas pricing, markets and pipelines, environmental considerations, emerging technologies, geopolitical issues, and labour. This report includes key findings for the following four key components: economic potential and development of the resource base; markets and pipelines; environmental and socio-economic impacts; and, potential spin-off developments in the electricity and petrochemical industries. 26 tabs., 53 figs

Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2009-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

Oil and nuclear power: the dynamic interrelationship

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stauffer, T.

1987-01-01

The impact of changing oil prices on the economic case for nuclear power and the political viability of the nuclear industry is reviewed. The case for nuclear energy is less obvious currently on the grounds of safety (following the Chernobyl accident), need (because of slower economic growth and energy conservation) and rationale (the cost advantage is no longer obvious). Nuclear power and oil prices are shown to be interrelated because the competitive economics of each is affected by the other. The competitive balance between the two changes. The use of nuclear power helps to keep oil prices down. However, if oil is cheap, nuclear power is less favourable economically. Some facts and figures are used to illustrate this paradox. (U.K.)

Panorama 2013 - The oil market in 2012 and forward trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, Guy

2012-11-01

As predicted at the beginning of 2012, the past year has proved fairly similar to 2011, focused more on geopolitical risk than the economic downturn, leading to a high oil price, close to the 2011 price ($110 for Brent). For the future, caution is called for: past performance is no guarantee of future developments... the old saying certainly applies to the oil market. While tension and even runaway oil prices remain a credible scenario for geopolitical reasons, a marked decline in the coming years is also a possibility. Faced with these extreme trends, the market reached an unstable balance at $110 for Brent (WTI around $95). (author)

Do we need a power exchange if there are enough power marketers ?

OpenAIRE

SMEERS, Yves; WEI, Jing-Yuan

1997-01-01

Decentralization in electricity restructuring is a growing trend that Power Marketers are ex- pected to take advantage of. We consider a market composed of Power Marketers, an Indepen- dent System Operator, generators and retailers. Power Marketers behave a` la Cournot-Nash and the ISO implements a Transmission Capacity Reservation market a` la FERC. Retailers are price taker. Generators’ behavior is only reflected in the purchase costs of the Power Marketers. Their behavior is thus not reall...

18 CFR 284.503 - Market-power determination.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Market-power determination. 284.503 Section 284.503 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY... RELATED AUTHORITIES Applications for Market-Based Rates for Storage § 284.503 Market-power determination...

The Nordic electric power market. A study of the market characteristics, price factors and the competitive environment of the Nordic power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keskikallio, J.; Lindholm, J.

2003-06-01

The market price of power depends on the balance between energy supply and demand. This balance depends on several external factors: the hydrological situation, temperature, time, fuel prices and exchange rates, transmission capacity and congestion, business cycles, other weather-related factors (wind, sun etc.) There are interdependencies between the factors, but the greatest price effects are caused by changes in the hydrological situation (affects energy supply) and temperature (affects mainly demand). Transmission capacity is normally sufficient, especially between Sweden and Finland. When congestion occurs, the price effects may be drastic, due to differences between the countries in the energy production mix. Price areas with several other bordering price areas (Oslo) have the lowest price level. The Helsinki area has the highest price level over time. Congestion is more frequent between southern Sweden and Norway, which accounts for a major part of the difference between the Helsinki area price and the system price. Market concentration is very high in separate price areas, but only moderate for the Nordic market as a whole. Congestion automatically leads to a highly concentrated sub-market. Further market concentration should be avoided, and congestion management should be improved in order to ensure a functioning market. Our findings also included the fact that although power producers have increased their profits since the deregulation of the market, there were no conclusive evidence of market power abuse. A continued trend toward higher profits may change the situation in the future, as the possibility to take advantage of market power already exists. Transmission System Operators (TSO's) have a crucial role for ensuring a functioning power market. As the actions of the TSO may have adverse effects, they should be continuously monitored and subject to much tighter scrutiny than 'ordinary' energy companies. Issues have arisen from the TSO's trading of

The modes of influence of oil on gas markets - The economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maisonnier, Guy

2016-01-01

This article first indicates how the oil price has influence on some gas markets in the USA, in the UK and in the Asia-Pacific region. The author then focuses on this last region, notably Japan where the LNG market was strongly impacted by the oil price. Many Asian actors now want to reform the gas market in order to avoid such a strong influence. The author discusses the consequences of the development of shale gas exploitation in the USA, not only on the US domestic market, but also on Europe and Asia. In Europe, two types of prices are still coexisting: indexed and spot prices. Indexed prices might be reached in periods of tension on the market (during a cold winter), but the trend is globally oriented downwards. It seems that spot prices tend to converge toward indexed prices, at least in winter. Thus, despite the existence of indexed contracts, the influence of oil price is slowly decreasing. Finally, the author outlines upheavals experienced by the gas market since 2009 due to economic growth, development of shale gas, change of contract models, level of LNG supply, CO 2 price, increasing share of renewable energies

An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dennis Bergmann

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

Modelling of demand response and market power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristoffersen, B.B.; Donslund, B.; Boerre Eriksen, P.

2004-01-01

Demand-side flexibility and demand response to high prices are prerequisites for the proper functioning of the Nordic power market. If the consumers are unwilling to respond to high prices, the market may fail the clearing, and this may result in unwanted forced demand disconnections. Being the TSO of Western Denmark, Eltra is responsible of both security of supply and the design of the power market within its area. On this basis, Eltra has developed a new mathematical model tool for analysing the Nordic wholesale market. The model is named MARS (MARket Simulation). The model is able to handle hydropower and thermal production, nuclear power and wind power. Production, demand and exchanges modelled on an hourly basis are new important features of the model. The model uses the same principles as Nord Pool (The Nordic Power Exchange), including the division of the Nordic countries into price areas. On the demand side, price elasticity is taken into account and described by a Cobb-Douglas function. Apart from simulating perfect competition markets, particular attention has been given to modelling imperfect market conditions, i.e. exercise of market power on the supply side. Market power is simulated by using game theory, including the Nash equilibrium concept. The paper gives a short description of the MARS model. Besides, focus is on the application of the model in order to illustrate the importance of demand response in the Nordic market. Simulations with different values of demand elasticity are compared. Calculations are carried out for perfect competition and for the situation in which market power is exercised by the large power producers in the Nordic countries (oligopoly). (au)

Linking the grids : marketing power across the border

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawrence, G.K.

1998-01-01

A review of U.S. regulations such as Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) order 888 and 889, regarding the transmission and distribution of electricity by electric utilities was presented. This presentation outlined FERC market power tests for power marketer applications. Meeting the 'Market Power' Test requirements means that FERC will allow a power marketer to sell power at market-based rates provided that the applicant can demonstrate that (1) neither it, nor its affiliates, is a dominant firm in generation sales in the relevant market, (2) owns or controls transmission facilities, (3) can erect or control any other barrier to market entry, or (4) abuses the affiliate relationship or has reciprocal dealings. The market power test applies to power marketers affiliated with government-owned Canadian utilities such as Energy Alliance Partnership, TransAlta Enterprises Corp., Ontario Hydro Interconnected Markets, British Columbia Power Exchange Corp., and H.Q. Energy Services (U.S.) Inc. Present state of the FERC applications of each of these power marketers was reviewed. Some lessons learned from U.S. retail natural gas unbundling were described. The general conclusion was that the future for Canadian sales into the U.S. electricity market is exciting, even if meeting FERC conditions is going to be difficult. Those who can, will prosper

The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chuanguo; Chen, Xiaoqing

2014-01-01

This paper investigated the reaction of aggregate commodity market to oil price shocks and also explored the effects of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries: metals, petrochemicals, grains and oilfats. We separated the volatilities of oil price into expected, unexpected and negatively expected categories to identify how oil prices influence bulk commodity markets. We contrasted the results between different periods and among classified indices, in order to discover the significant changes in recent years and the differences at an industry level. Our results indicate that the aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities in China. The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices, in contrast to the petrochemicals and oilfats indices. These results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from policy makers and market investors in China. - Highlights: • We investigated the impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries. • The aggregate commodity market was affected by both expected and unexpected oil price volatilities. • The impact of unexpected oil price volatilities became more complex after 2007. • The metals and grains indices did not significantly respond to the expected volatility in oil prices

Wind power generation and dispatch in competitive power markets

Science.gov (United States)

Abreu, Lisias

Wind energy is currently the fastest growing type of renewable energy. The main motivation is led by more strict emission constraints and higher fuel prices. In addition, recent developments in wind turbine technology and financial incentives have made wind energy technically and economically viable almost anywhere. In restructured power systems, reliable and economical operation of power systems are the two main objectives for the ISO. The ability to control the output of wind turbines is limited and the capacity of a wind farm changes according to wind speeds. Since this type of generation has no production costs, all production is taken by the system. Although, insufficient operational planning of power systems considering wind generation could result in higher system operation costs and off-peak transmission congestions. In addition, a GENCO can participate in short-term power markets in restructured power systems. The goal of a GENCO is to sell energy in such a way that would maximize its profitability. However, due to market price fluctuations and wind forecasting errors, it is essential for the wind GENCO to keep its financial risk at an acceptable level when constituting market bidding strategies. This dissertation discusses assumptions, functions, and methodologies that optimize short-term operations of power systems considering wind energy, and that optimize bidding strategies for wind producers in short-term markets. This dissertation also discusses uncertainties associated with electricity market environment and wind power forecasting that can expose market participants to a significant risk level when managing the tradeoff between profitability and risk.

Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashar, M.

2008-01-01

Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs

Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ashar, M. [Suncor Energy, Fort McMurray, AB (Canada)

2008-05-15

Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs.

Pay-as-bid based reactive power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, N.; Rabiee, A.; Shayanfar, H.A.

2010-01-01

In energy market clearing, the offers are stacked in increasing order and the offer that intersects demand curve, determines the market clearing price (MCP). In reactive power market, the location of reactive power compensator is so important. A low cost reactive producer may not essentially be favorable if it is far from the consumer. Likewise, a high cost local reactive compensator at a heavily loaded demand center of network could be inevitably an alternative required to produce reactive power to maintain the integrity of power system. Given the background, this paper presents a day-ahead reactive power market based on pay-as-bid (PAB) mechanism. Generators expected payment function (EPF) is used to construct a bidding framework. Then, total payment function (TPF) of generators is used as the objective function of optimal power flow (OPF) problem to clear the PAB based market. The CIGRE-32 bus test system is used to examine the effectiveness of the proposed reactive power market.

Pay-as-bid based reactive power market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amjady, N. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Rabiee, A., E-mail: Rabiee@iust.ac.i [Center of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Department of Electrical Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shayanfar, H.A. [Center of Excellence for Power System Automation and Operation, Department of Electrical Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2010-02-15

In energy market clearing, the offers are stacked in increasing order and the offer that intersects demand curve, determines the market clearing price (MCP). In reactive power market, the location of reactive power compensator is so important. A low cost reactive producer may not essentially be favorable if it is far from the consumer. Likewise, a high cost local reactive compensator at a heavily loaded demand center of network could be inevitably an alternative required to produce reactive power to maintain the integrity of power system. Given the background, this paper presents a day-ahead reactive power market based on pay-as-bid (PAB) mechanism. Generators expected payment function (EPF) is used to construct a bidding framework. Then, total payment function (TPF) of generators is used as the objective function of optimal power flow (OPF) problem to clear the PAB based market. The CIGRE-32 bus test system is used to examine the effectiveness of the proposed reactive power market.

A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

2015-01-01

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

Multiobjective clearing of reactive power market in deregulated power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabiee, A.; Shayanfar, H.; Amjady, N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a day-ahead reactive power market which is cleared in the form of multiobjective context. Total payment function (TPF) of generators, representing the payment paid to the generators for their reactive power compensation, is considered as the main objective function of reactive power market. Besides that, voltage security margin, overload index, and also voltage drop index are the other objective functions of the optimal power flow (OPF) problem to clear the reactive power market. A Multiobjective Mathematical Programming (MMP) formulation is implemented to solve the problem of reactive power market clearing using a fuzzy approach to choose the best compromise solution according to the specific preference among various non-dominated (pareto optimal) solutions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is examined based on the IEEE 24-bus reliability test system (IEEE 24-bus RTS). (author)

Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emenike O. Kalu

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

Market Power in Laboratory Emission Permit Markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godby, R.

2002-01-01

Many proposals suggesting the use of markets to control pollution assume markets will be competitive. When markets do not exhibit competitive characteristics, however, should they still be expected to result in efficiency improvement relative to traditional approaches? This paper employs experimental economic methods to examine the effect of market structure on the use of marketable emissions permits. Results indicate that in a market with one dominant firm and a number of fringe firms, strategic manipulation occurs repeatedly in the laboratory as predicted by market power models, undermining the allocative and dynamic efficiency benefits such markets offer. When firms compete in a downstream product market dominated by the same single firm, market efficiency can actually be reduced with the implementation of permit markets. Final market efficiencies reflect initial endowments and are influenced by competitive conditions elsewhere in the economy, indicating that policy-makers should carefully consider whether markets are appropriate in such circumstances

Impact of changing conditions in the oil market on energy policies in the ESCWA region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The present study has been prepared in the implementation of the ESCWA work programme and priorities for 1988/1989. It is aimed at examining energy issues of major concern to the region particularly the changes in the oil market, fluctuations of oil prices and their impact on energy plans and policies. The study is also intended to serve as a background document to the Meeting organized to discuss salient energy issues arising from recent developments in the oil market. It has therefore been designed to deal with downstream and upstream activities, adjustments to contractual terms, and market and national energy policies following the violent fluctuations of oil prices. Some futuristic views on the oil market are also presented and the study includes an examination of national and regional entities involved in energy issues and development of oil resources in the ESCWA region. (Author)

OPEC charts course for future oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subroto, H.E.

1992-01-01

The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

State of the art in oil market in the world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, F. E.

2007-01-01

Things move fast in the world of oil and unfortunately many events do not always receive an appropriate interpretation. The present update reviews the on-going oil peak debate, providing evidence against unjustified optimistic propositions, discussing the predictable shortage of energy materials and its influence on prices. Moreover, the return of OPEC to the oil market drivers seat and the irruption of state oil companies from exporting countries are also commented. (Author)

Oil market strengthening in the second half of 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the economy and events in the Middle East continue to drive the oil market. Saudi Arabia's decision in March to reduce crude oil output boosted prices by about $3/bbl and may have signaled a significant change in the kingdom's price strategy. With Kuwaiti production capacity still less then its levels before the Iraqi invasion of 1990, with Iraqi exports still crimped by an international embargo, and with Saudi Arabia producing less than before, the market looks tight for the rest of the year. Last year's war to liberate Kuwait temporarily eliminated much of the surplus production capacity with which the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had grappled for several years. This year, oil supply and demand have stayed in rough balance, even with Kuwaiti crude returning to the market. Two prospects have made traders nervous: resumption of Iraqi exports at significant levels and deliberate Saudi overproduction aimed at suppressing prices. The Saudi production cut put one of those fears to temporary rest. And negotiations between Baghdad and the United Nations over the Iraqi embargo seem unlikely to produce results for at least a while. Demand growth, meanwhile, will depend on economic performances of key oil consuming countries. In the US, modest economic recovery has increased industrial activity and stimulated demand for petroleum products. Crude oil and product prices began rising in April. Refiner additions to crude stocks have further added to the call on shrinking crude supplies, helping to lift prices. In turn, product prices have risen. With continued economic growth, prices will climb modestly throughout the year

Wind power in a deregulated market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravn, Hans F.

2000-01-01

The paper describes organisational and economic elements related to wind power in a deregulated market, it describes physical and technical characteristics of wind power and it describes how wind power is handled in daily operation as well as on the market. (author)

The world oil market after the Iraq-Kuwait crisis: Economic and politicoeconomic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wirl, F.

1994-01-01

The recent crisis in the Gulf (Iraq's temporary annexation of Kuwait) will presumably inflict enormous damage on future oil markets on both sides, consumers and producers. Consumers will be aware of the potential insecurity of the oil supply from the Arab-Persian Gulf, ironically, at a time when OPEC members (others than Iraq and Kuwait) stood up to their commitment. The reason for this lack of confidence is that political objectives may dominate conventional economic goals so that the future oil market becomes unpredictable and potentially insecure. As a consequence, consumers may conserve even in period of low oil prices so that billions and billions of (opportunity) dollars might be wasted. Vertical integration may be a way to mitigate this insecurity and to increase the credibility of a reliable supply. Presumably the easiest way to regain some of the consumers' confidence seems to be to again offer the international oil companies larger responsibility for the oil market

VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios Panagiotou

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

Risk handling in the power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindbaek-Nilsen, Brian; Strand, Krister

2004-01-01

In 1991 a new energy law was implemented in Norway. The Norwegian power market became deregulated and the law created a basis for a market based trade of electrical energy in Norway. In 1998 Nord Pool was founded and this has gradually become a common Nordic power exchange. The power market is characterized by large price fluctuations periodically. The reason is a variable resource supply and demand. In important factor in this context is that electricity cannot be stored after production. The large variations in supply and demand lead to large market risks for the involved parties. The derivate markets make hedging possible and thereby make it possible for the parties to guard against risks connected to future prices. This study presents risk elements in the power market, supplier and consumer sectors in view of the deregulation. In addition the present and future risk management is studied in with focus upon power suppliers that offer one-year fixed price contracts to the consumers. A study focuses on how a supplier may secure a certain volume of power in a year against price fluctuations in the market. As a basis the term market at Nord Pool is used and based on historical facts an estimated price for a supplier to eliminate the price risk for the volume is stipulated. This price is called the hedging cost and is compared with the offer a selection of power suppliers have for their one-year fixed price contracts. The possible difference between the two prices may be regarded as the power supplier risk price (premium) by offering these one-year fixed price contracts to the end consumers. The most surprising in the results in this study is how close the hedging costs are to the prices on the fixed price contracts. This means that compared to the hedging costs in the study the power suppliers operated with a small margin. Another tendency is that the fixed price contracts do not seem to have a high correlation to the hedging costs even if some companies follow the

Displacement of oil by gas in power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sundram, S.; Seng, L.K.; Kow, P.T.A.

1992-01-01

After the oil crises, Malaysia unveiled its four fuel diversification policy in the late 1970s towards utilization of gas, oil, coal and hydro. This was to ensure adequate and continuous energy supply for driving economic development and to cushion itself against impact of possible future fluctuations in oil prices. The primary energy supply in 1978 was predominantly oil based, consisting of 75.5% oil. As a result of this diversification policy, the oil component was reduced to about 51.8% in 1988. Due to its inherent ability to adapt and adjust to different fuels, the power sector played a crucial role in this massive shift away from oil. For the corresponding period, the oil component in the electricity generation input mix has decreased from 86.7% oil to 47.4%. Malaysia is endowed with substantial natural gas reserves amounting to 52.5 trillion cubic feet. Gas, therefore constitutes a natural and attractive option for the power sector in diversifying into non-oil indigenous energy resources, as the country's hydro potential has its limitations and the available proven coal reserves are relatively small. The paper addresses the past and current status and issues involved in displacing oil by gas for the power sector. These include the economic, technological and pricing aspects of natural gas development and issues pertaining to power system development. Future gas utilization strategies include the conversion of existing oil-fired plants to gas-fired, and the plant-up of gas turbines and the efficient combined cycle plants to meet the load requirements. These strategies are assessed from the viability and security perspective of increased gas utilization. Oil will continue to be displaced, but the extent to which gas will increase its share in power production is dependent on numerous factors ranging from its economics to supply security

Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, P.; Mohn, K.; Misund, B.; Asche, F.

2007-01-01

Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development - based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth. (author)

Is oil supply choked by financial market pressures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, Petter; Mohn, Klaus; Misund, Bard; Asche, Frank

2007-01-01

Since the late 1990s, financial analysts have focused strongly on short-term profitability for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. The increasing pressure for strict capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. The current high oil price is partly due to low exploration activity in the oil industry the last decade. We present and discuss the background for this development-based on previous academic research, industry trends and current valuation practices. An estimated econometric model of stock market valuation among oil and gas companies suggests that analysts and companies have put exaggerate weight on short-term earnings and accounting profitability. We therefore expect that the attention will shift back to long-term reserve and production growth

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Recycled Cooking Oil Powers Biodiesel

Science.gov (United States)

Vehicles in Vermont Recycled Cooking Oil Powers Biodiesel Vehicles in Vermont to someone by E -mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Recycled Cooking Oil Powers Biodiesel Vehicles in Vermont on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Recycled Cooking Oil Powers Biodiesel Vehicles in

A New Framework for Reactive Power Market Considering Power System Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Rabiee

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new framework for the day-ahead reactive power market based on the uniform auction price. Voltage stability and security have been considered in the proposed framework. Total Payment Function (TPF is suggested as the objective function of the Optimal Power Flow (OPF used to clear the reactive power market. Overload, voltage drop and voltage stability margin (VSM are included in the constraints of the OPF. Another advantage of the proposed method is the exclusion of Lost Opportunity Cost (LOC concerns from the reactive power market. The effectiveness of the proposed reactive power market is studied based on the CIGRÉ-32 bus test system.

Coal gasification and the power production market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howington, K.; Flandermeyer, G.

1995-01-01

The US electric power production market is experiencing significant changes sparking interest in the current and future alternatives for power production. Coal gasification technology is being marketed to satisfy the needs of the volatile power production industry. Coal gasification is a promising power production process in which solid coal is burned to produce a synthesis gas (syn gas). The syn gas may be used to fuel combustion integrated into a facility producing electric power. Advantages of this technology include efficient power production, low flue gas emissions, flexible fuel utilization, broad capability for facility integration, useful process byproducts, and decreased waste disposal. The primary disadvantages are relatively high capital costs and lack of proven long-term operating experience. Developers of coal gasification intend to improve on these disadvantages and lop a strong position in the power generation market. This paper is a marketing analysis of the partial oxidation coal gasification processes emerging in the US in response to the market factors of the power production industry. A brief history of these processes is presented, including the results of recent projects exploring the feasibility of integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) as a power production alternative. The current power generation market factors are discussed, and the status of current projects is presented including projected performance

Macro economy, stock market and oil prices. Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Filis, George

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market. (author)

Signals from the oil market. The right strategy at the right moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correlje, A.; Van Geuns, L.

2006-04-01

The authors discuss the perceptions of the international oil market which are formed in the light of the current high oil prices, tight supplies, rapid demand growth, geopolitical turbulence and diminishing reserves. The authors argue that the world is not running out of oil in the near and medium term, albeit that substantial investments and continuing technological innovations are required to increase the world oil production capacity. The problem signalled is that observers and policy makers are tempted to mix up their interpretation of short term events and possible longer term developments. Market developments should be evaluated in the context of the time scale at which they occur. An accumulation of ad hoc policies, unrelated to the nature of the problem and timing, may have disastrous consequences for the oil market and energy supply. Over the longer term it is hard to make predictions about the interaction of specific technological, economic and political developments. Given these uncertainties, policy makers should strive for a type of energy policy making that is consistent with mid-term objectives. [nl

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

2016-07-01

It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernabéu, R.; Díaz, M.

2016-01-01

It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share). The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

Preference for olive oil consumption in the Spanish local market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodolfo Bernabéu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available It is becoming ever more important for the olive oil industry in Spain to adopt a business strategy based on client orientation. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to identify the preferences of olive oil consumers and propose a series of business strategies for the producing sector. The methodology consisted in a survey of 404 olive oil consumers during the months of January and February 2013, whose preferences were determined through several multivariate techniques (conjoint analysis, consumer segmentation and a simulation of market share. The preferred olive oil is low priced, extra virgin and organic. The type of bottle does not appear to be relevant in the buying decision process, although it might be a factor in increasing market share. The current economic crisis has resulted in the emergence of two consumer segments; 67.1% of consumers selected the olive oil they buy on the basis of price and 32.9% were guided by the product’s specific attributes, which include, for example, organic production, which can be another differentiating element for producing companies.

The New Electricity Market of Singapore: Regulatory framework, market power and competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Youngho

2007-01-01

This study examines whether the New Electricity Market of Singapore (NEMS) is functioning at a workable level of competition. The generation market of the NEMS appears highly concentrated by a four-firm concentration ratio or the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. However, other measures of market power present that the NEMS is working at close to a competitive market. First, there seems to be a number of effective competitors in the market. Second, Supply Margin Assessment and Residual Supply Index support that the market is competitive though there are some possibilities in which the largest generator or a few large generators jointly could still have market power. Third, the Lerner Index of the NEMS shows that the generation market is fairly competitive and the Lerner Index adjusted with an industry level price elasticity of demand implies that there has not been much exercise of market power. Finally, vesting contracts-a contractual obligation of a specified quantity of electricity supply to the market-have appeared to be a strong and effective tool to mitigate market power in the NEMS. The vesting contracts are considered the force behind the lowering in the average Uniform Singapore Electricity Price and the Lerner Index in 2004

Bio-oil fueled diesel power plant; Biooeljyllae toimiva dieselvoimala

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vuorinen, A. [Modigen Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

1995-12-31

The project mission is to develop a diesel power plant which is capable of using liquid bio-oils as the main fuel of the power plant. The applicable bio-oils are rape seed oils and pyrolysis oils. The project was started in 1994 by installing a 1.5 MW Vasa 4L32 engine in VTT Energy laboratory in Otaniemi. During 1995 the first tests with the rape seed oils were made. The tests show that the rape seed oil can be used in Vasa 32 engines without difficulties. In the second phase of the project during 1996 and 1997 pyrolysis oil made of wood will be tested. Finally a diesel power plant concept with integrated pyrolysis oil, electricity and heat production will be developed

Bio-oil fueled diesel power plant; Biooeljyllae toimiva dieselvoimala

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vuorinen, A [Modigen Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

1996-12-31

The project mission is to develop a diesel power plant which is capable of using liquid bio-oils as the main fuel of the power plant. The applicable bio-oils are rape seed oils and pyrolysis oils. The project was started in 1994 by installing a 1.5 MW Vasa 4L32 engine in VTT Energy laboratory in Otaniemi. During 1995 the first tests with the rape seed oils were made. The tests show that the rape seed oil can be used in Vasa 32 engines without difficulties. In the second phase of the project during 1996 and 1997 pyrolysis oil made of wood will be tested. Finally a diesel power plant concept with integrated pyrolysis oil, electricity and heat production will be developed

Bio-oil fuelled diesel power plant; Biooeljyllae toimiva dieselvoimala

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vuorinen, A [Modigen Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

1997-12-01

The project mission is to develop a diesel power plant which is capable of using liquid bio-oils as the main fuel of the power plant. The applicable bio-oils are rape seed oils and pyrolysis oils. The project was started in 1994 by installing a 1.5 MW Vasa 4L32 engine in VTT Energy laboratory in Otaniemi. During 1995 the first tests with the rape seed oils were made. The tests show that the rape seed oil can be used in Vasa 32 engines without difficulties. In the second phase of the project during 1996 pyrolysis oil made of wood was tested. Finally a diesel power plant concept with integrated pyrolysis oil, electricity and heat production will be developed

Heavy crude oil and synthetic crude market outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crandall, G.R.

1997-01-01

This presentation included an outline of the international heavy crude supply and demand versus Canadian heavy crude supply and disposition, and pricing outlook for synthetic crudes. Differences among crude oils such as light sweet, light sour, heavy and bitumen were described and illustrated with respect to their gravity, API, percentage of sulphur, metals and nitrogen. Internationally, heavy and sour crude supplies are forecast to increase significantly over the next four years. Discoveries of light sour crude in offshore Gulf of Mexico will provide a major new source of sour crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Venezuela's supplies of heavy and sour crude are also expected to increase over the next few years. Mexico and Canada have plans to increase their heavy crude production. All of the crudes will be aimed at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest markets. Pentanes and condensates are also expected to increase based on the growing Canadian natural gas production. Diluent demand will also grow to match Canadian heavy crude/bitumen production. U.S. midwest refiners are proposing expansions to allow them to process more Canadian heavy crude oil. At present, only a few refineries are equipped to process significant amounts of synthetic crude. It was suggested that to absorb available heavy and synthetic production, increased penetration into both Canadian and U.S. markets will be required. Some refineries may have to be modified to process heavy and synthetic oil supplies. Heavy oil and synthetic producers may need to develop relationships with refiners such as joint ventures and term supply agreements to secure markets. 2 tabs., 12 figs

An options model for electric power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

1997-01-01

The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

Prospects of the French offshore wind power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-12-01

This market study about the French offshore wind power industry presents: 1 - the bases of the offshore wind power market: wind turbine operation principle, foundations and scale change; 2 - business model of offshore wind power projects: logistical, technical and financial challenges, cost structure and profitability of projects (investment, power generation costs, incentive mechanisms), project development time; 3 - European and French regulatory framework: the energy/climate package, the French 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' commitments for the development of renewable energies; 4 - start up of the French offshore wind power market: the onshore wind power market looking for growth relaying, the lateness of the offshore market, outlines of the call for bids and of the first phase launching (schedule, selected sites and candidates), market development stakes and opportunities; 5 - offshore wind power overview in Europe - lessons for the French market prospects: status of the European market (installed power/country, projects in progress), European leaders of the market (analysis of the British, Danish and German markets successful takeoff), specificities of the French market (are all favourable conditions present?); 6 - takeoff of the French market - what opportunities on the overall value chain?: front-end of the industry (manufacturers and component suppliers: industry structure, competition, R and D, subcontractors in France), back-end of the industry (developers/operators: sector analysis, ambitions, alliances, competences), specific French know-how in offshore installation and connection of wind turbines (reconversion of harbour areas, re-positioning of shipbuilding industry). (J.S.)

Studies in market-based electric power trade and regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hope, Einar

2000-01-01

This is a compilation of articles written by the author during the last fifteen years. Most of the articles are related to the reform of the Norwegian electric power market. This reform led to the Energy Act of 1990 and to the subsequent development of the power markets. Some of the sections are in Norwegian, some in English. The sections discuss (1) Markets for electricity trade in Norway, (2) Economic incentives and public firm behaviour, (3) Market alternatives to the present forms of occasional power trade, (4) Socio-economic considerations about electricity pricing, (5) Scenarios for market based power trade in Norway, (6) Markets for electricity: economic reform of the Norwegian electricity industry, (7) The Norwegian power market, (8) A common Nordic energy market?, (9) Organization of supply markets for natural gas in Europe, (10) The extent of the central grid, (11) Optimum regulation of grid monopolies in the power trade, (12) Power markets and competition policy, (13) Deregulation of the Norwegian power sector, (14) designing a market based system for the Icelandic electricity industry and (15) regulation regimes for the power sector

Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedoyin I. Lawal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

Market Power in Hydro-Thermal Supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edin, Karl-Axel

2006-12-01

Despite having had a deregulated electricity market in Sweden for over ten years we still need to increase our understanding as to how deregulated electricity markets actually work and how possible problems are to be solved. One question that is always in focus is if the competition between generators in the Nordic electricity market really works the way it was intended. Many argue that the concentration in ownership of generation plants already has gone too far. Together with joint ownership in nuclear facilities and barriers for entrance, critics say that this has resulted in higher electricity prices than necessary. In this report different methods to (ex ante) study potential possibilities for generating firms to influence the electricity price (market power) and (ex post) discover possible manipulation through analysing the spot price and other observed factors on the electricity market are analysed. The purpose of the longer underlying paper is to give a comprehensive treatment of the electricity market with storage, i.e. hydro power, with an auction market organisation and to test the models on the Nordic market in order to explore the explanatory power of auction market theory and the theory of contestable market. The main theoretical effort in the paper concerns auction theory with inventories. The paper develops an inter-temporal auction model of a thermal-hydro power market. Parallel to the derivation of the basic equations a numerical model is developed in order to illustrate the results of the model. Section 2 of the present paper summarizes the basic equations (derived in the longer paper) for an inter-temporal auction thermal-hydro market. Section 3 contains the illustrations of solutions to equations for some stylized markets. In section 4 the auction model is tested on the Nordic market

The role of reserves and production in the market capitalization of oil and gas companies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ewing, Bradley T.; Thompson, Mark A.

2016-01-01

We examine the role proved reserves and production play in the market capitalization of publicly traded oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The paper provides two important contributions to the literature. First, we extend the existing research by utilizing the method of Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model that controls for firm type. Second, we document the impacts that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. This is a key finding in the context of discounted net cash flow models and the findings suggest there is an optimal tradeoff between current and future production, given current volumes of reserves, the latter of which is valued positively by the market. Moreover, this optimal tradeoff or the optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. Additionally, our findings highlight the importance of capital structure in the heavily capital intensive oil and gas industry. The results from this research should benefit both oil and gas companies and investors. Specifically, the results provide new and robust information as to the empirical relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations. - Highlights: • We utilized Robust Least Squares to estimate a multivariate market capitalization model. • There is a differential impact that oil and gas reserves to production ratios have on market capitalization. • The optimal profit-maximizing intertemporal production choice is unique to the type of hydrocarbon being considered. • Results provide new information as to the relationships between key determinants of oil and gas company market valuations.

The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

OpenAIRE

Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

2016-01-01

In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

Novel approach to assess local market power considering transmission constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Canbing; Xia, Qing; Kang, Chongqing; Jiang, Jianjian

2008-01-01

Market power (MP) assessment and mitigation affect the efficiency of the generation market. The traditional indices such as HHI and Lerner index can not express local market power, which caused by transmission constraints. Transmission constraints divide the market into some smaller parts. Some generators can abuse their MP in one part but not in the whole market. This paper describes a new approach to assess market power. The main contributions of the new method can be summarized as following. First, the concept of local market is developed, and the whole power system is divided into several local markets, as transmission congestions dividing the market. In the local markets, there are no transmission constraints so local market power does not exist. Then the local market power index (LMPI) is calculated according to market concentration, transmission constraints, and demand-supply ratio. Based on LMPI, the integrated local market power index which describes the whole picture of market can be obtained. It has been proved that the new approach can assess market power exactly, and identify the critical factor that results in market power and where generators are easy to exercise market power. The finding in this paper is helpful for market monitoring and mitigating market power. Moreover, the new index can be used to evaluate the power grid availability to generation competition and the power transmission expansion planning. (author)

Oil and gas markets, companies, and technology in the 1990`s and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kennedy, J.L.

1995-08-01

During the late 1990`s and beyond, oil prices will be stagnant while costs increase, competition for markets and capital will be fierce, funds available for exploration and development will be limited, and environmental extremists will keep prospective areas off-limits. Higher taxes will limit growth in oil and gas demand and reapportion energy market shares. And a campaign to brand oil use as an ``addiction`` that must be cured will gather steam. But opportunities abound, too, even in the US High-quality properties are available throughout the US, independents can find and develop reserves cheaper than the majors, and new tools are available to reduce risks both in the field and in the market. Gas prices are firming and natural gas is often labeled the ``fuel of the future.`` To succeed in the petroleum industry of the 1990`s, all companies must accept change, be creative, and take initiative. To prosper, oil and gas producers and refiners and those who supply and serve the industry must face the new realities of the market. They cannot mark time until the return of 4,000 active rigs and $40/bbl oil. those days are never coming back. Never.

Market structure, excess capacity and price movement: implications for the world oil market in the 1990s

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iwayemi, A.

1992-01-01

World Oil Market developments, since the second half of the 1980s, have demonstrated again the conventional wisdom in economics that competitive production and pricing strategies have among producers, when the industry is characterized by significant excess capacity, in exerting strong downward pressure on the price. The magnitude and speed of the price falls depends not only on the size and utilization of the available excess capacity, but also on the perception of the markets as regards the degree of the imbalance between demand and supply. The impact of output competition on oil revenues in the short run depends on the magnitude of the price elasticity of demand. The most vivid illustration of this phenomenon is captured by the experience of 1986, when competition for market share among oil producers, despite the existence of about 20 per cent excess capacity, culminated in a sharp drop in price, with only a marginal improvement in demand. (author)

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Solis, Ricardo

2010-01-01

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Alvarez, Jesus [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Solis, Ricardo [Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico)

2010-09-15

Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-10-29

The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices.

Marketing strategy for the BC oil and gas service sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The British Columbia (BC) oil and gas service sector is collaborating with the BC Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) to enhance the competitiveness of oil and gas service providers in Northeast BC. The MEM agreed to provide one-time funding to develop this marketing strategy for the oil and gas sector, particularly for small to medium-sized companies with limited resources. This document is also a resource tool for suppliers in the sector that have developed and are implementing their own marketing plans and wish to enhance elements of their own plans. The strategy also outlines the potential role of associations in Northeast BC that represent the service sector. It links their marketing activities with the activities of individual service providers. Local service providers (LSP) include companies in a wide range of businesses such as drilling support, transportation, health and safety services, and construction. Six issues that directly impact the competitiveness of LSPs were also presented along with recommendations for participants in the service sector, associations and individual companies. tabs., figs., 11 appendices

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

2010-09-15

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

2010-01-01

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

Local Buyer Market Power and Horizontally Differentiated Manufacturers

OpenAIRE

Wang, Shinn-Shyr; Rojas, Christian; Lavoie, Nathalie

2010-01-01

In this paper we study a farmer-processor relationship, where market power is bidirectional: processors have buyer as well as seller market power. Farmers supply a homogeneous raw input to the processors, which, in turn, process it into a horizontally differentiated product. The analysis shows that the spread between prices that both parties receive can be decomposed into two components: one due to buyer market power in the agricultural input market and one due to seller market power in the d...

The New Electricity Market of Singapore : regulatory framework, market power and competition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.

2007-01-01

This study examines whether the New Electricity Market of Singapore (NEMS) is functioning at a workable level of competition. The generation market of the NEMS appears highly concentrated by a four-firm concentration ratio or the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. However, other measures of market power present that the NEMS is working at close to a competitive market. First, there seems to be a number of effective competitors in the market. Second, Supply Margin Assessment and Residual Supply Index support that the market is competitive though there are some possibilities in which the largest generator or a few large generators jointly could still have market power. Third, the Lerner Index of the NEMS shows that the generation market is fairly competitive and the Lerner Index adjusted with an industry level price elasticity of demand implies that there has not been much exercise of market power. Finally, vesting contracts - a contractual obligation of a specified quantity of electricity supply to the market - have appeared to be a strong and effective tool to mitigate market power in the NEMS. The vesting contracts are considered the force behind the lowering in the average Uniform Singapore Electricity Price and the Lerner Index in 2004. [Author

Forward reliability markets: Less risk, less market power, more efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cramton, Peter; Stoft, Steven

2008-01-01

A forward reliability market is presented. The market coordinates new entry through the forward procurement of reliability options - physical capacity bundled with a financial option to supply energy above a strike price. The market assures adequate generating resources and prices capacity from the bids of competitive new entry in an annual auction. Efficient performance incentives are maintained from a load-following obligation to supply energy above the strike price. The capacity payment fully hedges load from high spot prices, and reduces supplier risk as well. Market power is reduced in the spot market, since suppliers enter the spot market with a nearly balanced position in times of scarcity. Market power in the reliability market is addressed by not allowing existing supply to impact the capacity price. The approach, which has been adopted in New England and Colombia, is readily adapted to either a thermal system or a hydro system. (author)

Do regulatory mechanisms promote competition and mitigate market power? Evidence from Spanish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moutinho, Victor; Moreira, António C.; Mota, Jorge

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the relationships between bidding quantities, marginal cost and market power measures in the Spanish wholesale electricity market for two different regulatory periods: 2002–2005 and 2006–2007. Using panel econometric techniques we find differences in the impacts on bidding strategies for both periods. Hence, the marginal cost and the market power measures affect bid and net quantities. The market power measures also suggest that the coefficient is consistently positive and highly significant for both periods. Moreover, the market power and marginal costs have mixed effects according to the models proposed for both periods. In addition, our results point to the effectiveness of the different effects of mitigating the market power in the Spanish electricity market. For the 2006–2007 period, the proposed causal relationships are partially validated by the cointegration results, which assumes there is a significant causality between the Lerner Index and the marginal cost. - Highlights: • Competition and regulation in the Spanish electricity market. • Net supplier and net demander behavior in the spot market. • Panel cointegration methods used: FMOLS, PMG, MG, DFE and DOLS. • The price cap regulation is effective in mitigating market power. • Market power and marginal cost have positive effects on bidding strategies

Testing efficiency and unbiasedness in the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.

1994-03-01

This paper presents some empirical evidence on speculative efficiency or unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the WTI crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time-varying risk premium. (author)

Market power in the Nordic electricity wholesale market: A survey of the empirical evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fridolfsson, Sven-Olof; Tangeras, Thomas P.

2009-01-01

We review the recent empirical research assessing market power on the Nordic wholesale market for electricity, Nord Pool. The studies find no evidence of systematic exploitation of system level market power on Nord Pool. Local market power arising from transmission constraints seems to be more problematic in some price areas across the Nordic countries. Market power can manifest itself in a number of ways that have so far escaped empirical scrutiny. We discuss investment incentives, vertical integration and buyer power, as well as withholding of base-load (nuclear) capacity.

Market power mitigation, monitoring and surveillance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandler, H.

2001-01-01

This power point presentation described the working of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) in Ontario in terms of its function and structure, competencies, operating principles, and interagency coordination in the electricity sector. An independent market surveillance panel (MSP) appointed by the IMO Board empowers the IMO to monitor, investigate and request information from market participants regarding power system operations, market and strategic development and industrial economics. The six operating principles of the MSP are efficiency, consistency, fairness, transparency, timeliness and confidentiality

Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

Assessing the market power due to the network constraints in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bompard, E.; Ma, Y.C.; Napoli, R.; Jiang, C.W.

2006-01-01

The physical and operational constraints of the network pose very specific problems to market power analysis in the oligopolistic electricity markets. This paper presents a direct analytical approach to find the market equilibrium based on a supply function game model. The model is exploited to undertake a sensitivity analysis of the producer surplus with reference to the line flow limits under a DC power flow model for network representation. Two different kinds of indices, that can capture the market power arising under network constraints, are proposed. The first set of indices is the location privilege (LP), that measure the effect of the generators positioning in the grid on their surplus under perfect competition. The second set is for the network market power (NMP) indices that take into account the strategic behaviors of the producers that may take advantage of the congestion of the transmission lines. The indices allow for a ranking of the lines in terms of the market power they can induce and, in this respect, they may help the market regulator to focus on the network weakness in terms of the possible market outcomes under the market power behaviors from the supply side. The application of the proposed indices is illustrated with reference to the IEEE 30-bus test system. (author)

Assembling markets for wind power. An inquiry into the making of market devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pallesen, T.

2013-04-15

This project studies the making of a market for wind power in France. Markets for wind power, as well as markets for other renewable energies, are often referred to as 'political markets: On the one hand, wind power has the potential to reduce CO{sub 2}-emissions and thus stall the effects of electricity generation on climate change; and on the other hand, as an economic good, wind power is said to suffer from 'disabilities', such as high costs, fluctuating and unpredictable generation, etc. Therefore, because of its performance as a good, it is argued that the survival of wind power in the market is premised on different instruments, some of which I will refer to as 'prosthetic devices'. This thesis inquires into two such prosthetic devices: The feed-in tariff and the wind power development zones (ZDE) as they are negotiated and practiced in France, and the ways in which they affect the making of markets for wind power. In this thesis, it is argued that while the two devices frame the price of wind power and the location of turbines, they also affect and address questions of costs, profitability, and efficiency; and as such, they may be investigated as market devices. (Author)

Agora Energiewende (2016). The power market pentagon. A pragmatic power market design for Europe's energy transition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buck, Matthias; Redl, Christian; Steigenberger, Markus; Graichen, Patrick

2016-04-15

As consequence of Europe's climate and energy agenda, the European Union will generate some 50 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030. By 2050, the EU's power system will have to be completely carbon-free. Solar photovoltaics and wind power - driven by significant cost reductions - will almost certainly contribute the biggest share of the zero-carbon technologies. Given the specific characteristics of wind power and photovoltaics (intermittent generation, high capital costs, very low variable costs), they will fundamentally change both market operations and the market design framework. Decarbonisation rests on continuous investments in these technologies. Usually it is expected that the energy market will deliver these investments, in combination with the emissions trading system. But is this view, based on simple textbook economics, enough to enable the required investments under real world conditions? In this paper, we argue that this rather theoretical view to power market design is not the way forward. Instead, a more pragmatic approach is needed, that takes into account the complex practical, political, and economic challenges of the transition towards a carbon-free power system. Thus, we propose to think of the future European market design as a Power Market Pentagon.

Agora Energiewende (2016). The power market pentagon. A pragmatic power market design for Europe's energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buck, Matthias; Redl, Christian; Steigenberger, Markus; Graichen, Patrick

2016-01-01

As consequence of Europe's climate and energy agenda, the European Union will generate some 50 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030. By 2050, the EU's power system will have to be completely carbon-free. Solar photovoltaics and wind power - driven by significant cost reductions - will almost certainly contribute the biggest share of the zero-carbon technologies. Given the specific characteristics of wind power and photovoltaics (intermittent generation, high capital costs, very low variable costs), they will fundamentally change both market operations and the market design framework. Decarbonisation rests on continuous investments in these technologies. Usually it is expected that the energy market will deliver these investments, in combination with the emissions trading system. But is this view, based on simple textbook economics, enough to enable the required investments under real world conditions? In this paper, we argue that this rather theoretical view to power market design is not the way forward. Instead, a more pragmatic approach is needed, that takes into account the complex practical, political, and economic challenges of the transition towards a carbon-free power system. Thus, we propose to think of the future European market design as a Power Market Pentagon.

The impact of the Market Power Mitigation Agreement on power prices in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chute, R. G.

2000-01-01

Market power was defined by the Market Design Committee (MDC) as 'the ability to sustain a significant price increase profitably', although it is generally understood to refer to the 'overwhelming dominance of generating capacity and supply capability of Ontario Power Generation' (OPG), the former generating arm of Ontario Hydro. The MDC sought to address market power within the context of the Ontario Government's White Paper on electricity sector reform, entitled 'Directions for Change'. The solution was the Market Power Mitigation Agreement (MPMA), a negotiated agreement between the MDC and OPG that established market share goals and provided incentives and penalties to meet these goals. Briefly, the major instrument used by the MPMA is the price of electric power sold in the Ontario market to reward, or penalize the actions of OPG in moving towards its market share goals as defined in the MPMA. This paper explains the principal elements of the MPMA and how they are expected to influence the market prices for power in Ontario. The principal elements of the Agreement are price cap and rebate, decontrol targets, and intertie capacity and limits, while the instruments comprise licence conditions, settlement agreements, market rules and ministerial directives. The issue of the impact of the MPMA on the cost of power, and the future prospects of market power after the expiration of the MPMA are also addressed

Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

2004-01-01

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

National Oil Companies and their role in international market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Thirteen of the top 20 international helders of oil and gas reserves are either traditional national oil company (NOC) or newly privatised NOC. The growing importance of NOC in the international energy markets raises questions about emerging policies, objectives and priorities of these organizations since, historically, geopolitical and strategic aims in addition to purely commercial considerations are factored into their foreign investment decisions [it

Plasticizer contamination in edible vegetable oil in a U.S. retail market.

Science.gov (United States)

Bi, Xiaolong; Pan, Xiaojun; Yuan, Shoujun; Wang, Qiquan

2013-10-02

With the wide application of plastics, the contamination of plasticizers migrating from plastic materials in the environment is becoming ubiquitous. The presence of phthalates, the major group of plasticizers, in edible items has gained increasingly more concern due to their endocrine disrupting property. In this study, 15 plasticizers in 21 edible vegetable oils purchased from a U.S. retail market were analyzed using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometry. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP) were detected in all oil samples. Benzylbutyl phthalate (BzBP), dibutyl phthalate (DBP), and diethyl phthalate (DEP) were detected at a rate of 95.2, 90.5, and 90.5%, respectively. The detection rates for all other plasticizers ranged from 0 to 57.1%. The content of total plasticizers in oil samples was determined to be 210-7558 μg/kg, which was comparable to the content range in oil marketed in Italy. Although no significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizer was observed among oil species (soybean, canola, corn, and olive), the wider range and higher average of total content of plasticizers in olive oil than other oil species indicated the inconsistence of plasticizer contamination in olive oil and a possible priority for quality monitoring. No significant difference (p = 0.05) in the total content of plasticizers was found among glass-bottle (n = 4), plastic-bottle (n = 14), and metal-can (n = 3) packaging, implying that oil packaging is not the major cause of plasticizer contamination. The daily intake amount of plasticizers contained in edible oil on this U.S. retail market constituted only a minimum percentage of reference dose established by US EPA, thus no obvious toxicological effect might be caused. However, the fact that DEHP content in two olive oils exceeded relevant special migration limits (SMLs) of Europe and China might need attention.

Dealing with risk in the power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holtan, J.A.; Mo, B.

1995-01-01

The report describes the most important sources of risk in the electric power market and how risk can be dealt with by the actors in the market. It stresses recharge risk, price risk, and quantity risk in various types of contracts. It is shown how these risk sources interact and how power traders can exploit the opportunities in the power market to their own benefit. 17 refs

THE ORGANIZATIONAL-ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF RESTRUCTURING OF THE MARKET OF MINERAL OIL IN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V.I. Efimenkov

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Restructuring, in opinion of the experts, one of the basic ways of steady development of managing subjects in modern conditions. In clause strategy of organizational-economic restructuring of the regional market of mineral oil is considered. Concrete actions of complex restructuring of the market of mineral oil in region and the mechanism of management are resulted by reorganization of the given market.

The marketing concept of nuclear power plant constructors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czakainski, M.

1980-01-01

The paper examines the largely non-investigated area of marketing theory and energy sciences. The author considers the structure of the nuclear power industry and of marketing, analyses the nuclear power station market and its factors of influence, and gives a market forecast. The marketing concept requires especially a typologization of the investment good nuclear power plant. Project-dependent and project-independent marketing activities are coordinated in a marketing programme, and are integrated into mixed marketing efforts. Problems result from insecurity related to the further development of political, social and economic factors of influence. Constructors of nuclear power plants in the Federal Republic of Germany have to adapt to this insecurity and to face risks presented by entrepreneurial activities and the environment by means of flexible planning. (HSCH) [de

Croatian Oil and Gas Market - an Area of Contact Between Europe and Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dragicevic, T.

2007-01-01

Croatia - a regional energy hub, a catchword that has been adopted even by politicians, denotes a combination of favourable geographical position and use of this advantage as a mediator in providing transmission services for natural gas, oil and electricity between Europe and Asia, as well as between the north and the south of the European continent. However, although the idea of regional energy hub has gained support, it is still at a turning point and may take three different directions: 1. If timely activities are undertaken for the implementation of the LNG terminal project and connecting of the JANAF oil pipeline with PEOP and/or Druzba Adria, the realisation of energy hub is possible; 2. In case of further delays in implementing the LNG terminal project and Druzba Adria oil pipeline, we will lose the opportunity for participation in major European projects for twenty years at least; 3. A possible solution may be sought in takeover of individual energy activities by large foreign energy companies that show interest for the Croatian energy market. This last option is very likely due to considerable interest by Central and East European energy companies. In the eve of the expected EU accession, any resistance to takeover may be qualified as economic nationalism. Only large, powerful nations enjoy the privilege that their resistance to foreign domination is qualified as economic patriotism. Since the year 2000 when preparations for INA's privatization began, there were indications of interest and aspiration of the Russian oil companies to ensure presence in the Croatian market. In the meantime the Russian companies evolved their strategies of penetration on the flanks of the European market in the form of North Stream pipeline over the Baltic Sea and South Stream through the Black Sea and Turkey. So, the Republic of Croatia is on the crossroad: it can take a secondary role in other players' strategy, or it can pursue its own strategy based on growth and security

Wind power and the conditions at a liberalized power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morthorst, P.E.

2003-01-01

Wind power is undergoing a rapid development nationally as well as globally and in a number of countries covers an increasing part of the power supply. At the same time an ongoing liberalization of power markets is taking place and to an increasing extent the owners of wind power plants will themselves have to be responsible for trading the power at the spot market and financially handling the balancing. In the western part of Denmark (Jutland/Funen area), wind-generated power from time to time covers almost 100% of total power consumption. Therefore some examples are chosen from this area to analyse in more detail how well large amounts of wind power in the short-term are handled at the power spot market. It turns out that there is a tendency that more wind power in the system in the short run leads to relatively lower spot prices, while less wind power implies relatively higher spot prices, although, with the exception of December 2002, in general no strong relationship is found. A stronger relationship is found at the regulating market, where there is a fairly clear tendency that the more wind power produced, the higher is the need for down-regulation, and, correspondingly, the less wind power produced, the higher is the need for up-regulation. In general for the Jutland/Funen area the average cost of down-regulation is calculated as 1 2 c euros/kWh regulated for 2002, while the cost of up-regulation amounts to 0 7 c euros/kWh regulated. (author)

A review of the deregulated power market since market opening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Runge, C.

2003-01-01

The Alberta electrical industry structure was discussed along with the market opportunities and historic market data pertaining to Alberta. The Alberta electrical industry is responsible for 20,000 kilometres of transmission lines, connections with British Columbia and Saskatchewan, operates in excess of 90 generating units, with 200 Power Pool participants. The Alberta electricity generation breakdown was provided (coal, gas, hydro), and a look at the projected growth in installed capacity provided. General information concerning the Power Pool of Alberta was presented. In discussing market opportunities, the author began by looking at the evolution of the Alberta market, noting that the Pool commenced operations in 1996. A discussion followed on real time spot market, direct sales, contract for differences (CfD), and other market opportunities. The last part of the presentation dealt with historical market data. The Alberta annual Pool price from 1996 to 2002 was presented, along with daily pool price 1996-2002. The factors affecting Pool price are: other markets, input costs, supply-demand balance, and other market elements. Alberta imports and exports were discussed, followed by a look at forward trading activity. Market evolution was addressed, including considerations in next phase of Alberta market. figs

An economic study of palm oil marketing in Akwa Ibom state ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, the fluctuating trends in the production and marketing of palm oil in the State, calls for adequate economic investigation in order to enhance the potentials of the enterprise. The study covered the major markets in Akwa Ibom State, namely Uyo, Eket, Etinan, and Ikot Abasi main markets. In all, both the producers, ...

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greene, David L.; Liu, Changzheng

2015-01-01

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. -- Highlights: •Increased oil production and decreased use caused U.S. oil imports to fall from 60% in 2005 to 27% in 2014. •OPEC's market power appears to have increased due to lower oil price elasticities. •Future costs of oil dependence to the U.S. are likely to increase but decrease relative to GDP. •If U.S. oil resources are far larger than EIA estimates, the U.S. could be oil independent by 2040

Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Ofir David

Estimates from the World Wind Energy Association assert that world total wind power installed capacity climbed from 18 Gigawatt (GW) to 152 GW from 2000 to 2009. Moreover, according to their predictions, by the end of 2010 global wind power capacity will reach 190 GW. Since electricity is a unique commodity, this remarkable expansion brings forward several key economic questions regarding the integration of significant amount of wind power capacity into deregulated electricity markets. The overall dissertation objective is to develop a comprehensive theoretical framework that enables the modeling of the performance and outcome of wind-integrated electricity markets. This is relevant because the state of knowledge of modeling electricity markets is insufficient for the purpose of wind power considerations. First, there is a need to decide about a consistent representation of deregulated electricity markets. Surprisingly, the related body of literature does not agree on the very economic basics of modeling electricity markets. That is important since we need to capture the fundamentals of electricity markets before we introduce wind power to our study. For example, the structure of the electric industry is a key. If market power is present, the integration of wind power has large consequences on welfare distribution. Since wind power uncertainty changes the dynamics of information it also impacts the ability to manipulate market prices. This is because the quantity supplied by wind energy is not a decision variable. Second, the intermittent spatial nature of wind over a geographical region is important because the market value of wind power capacity is derived from its statistical properties. Once integrated into the market, the distribution of wind will impact the price of electricity produced from conventional sources of energy. Third, although wind power forecasting has improved in recent years, at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards, forecasting