WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonoptimistic amazon scenarios

  1. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger defined...

  2. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger...

  3. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  4. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  5. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  6. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  7. Natural and drought scenarios in an east central Amazon forest: Fidelity of the Community Land Model 3.5 with three biogeochemical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Koichi; Zeng, Xubin; Christoffersen, Bradley J.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; Brando, Paulo M.

    2011-03-01

    Recent development of general circulation models involves biogeochemical cycles: flows of carbon and other chemical species that circulate through the Earth system. Such models are valuable tools for future projections of climate, but still bear large uncertainties in the model simulations. One of the regions with especially high uncertainty is the Amazon forest where large-scale dieback associated with the changing climate is predicted by several models. In order to better understand the capability and weakness of global-scale land-biogeochemical models in simulating a tropical ecosystem under the present day as well as significantly drier climates, we analyzed the off-line simulations for an east central Amazon forest by the Community Land Model version 3.5 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its three independent biogeochemical submodels (CASA', CN, and DGVM). Intense field measurements carried out under Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, including forest response to drought from a throughfall exclusion experiment, are utilized to evaluate the whole spectrum of biogeophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the models. Our analysis shows reasonable correspondence in momentum and energy turbulent fluxes, but it highlights three processes that are not in agreement with observations: (1) inconsistent seasonality in carbon fluxes, (2) biased biomass size and allocation, and (3) overestimation of vegetation stress to short-term drought but underestimation of biomass loss from long-term drought. Without resolving these issues the modeled feedbacks from the biosphere in future climate projections would be questionable. We suggest possible directions for model improvements and also emphasize the necessity of more studies using a variety of in situ data for both driving and evaluating land-biogeochemical models.

  8. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  9. Programming Amazon EC2

    CERN Document Server

    Vliet, Jurg

    2011-01-01

    If you plan to use Amazon Web Services to run applications in the cloud, the end-to-end approach in this book will save you needless trial and error. You'll find practical guidelines for designing and building applications with Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) and a host of supporting AWS tools, with a focus on critical issues such as load balancing, monitoring, and automation. How do you move an existing application to AWS, or design your application so that it scales effectively? How much storage will you require? Programming Amazon EC2 not only helps you get started, it will also keep y

  10. The Amazon's energetic paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Marcos Vinicius Miranda da; Bermann, Celio

    1999-01-01

    The main energy sources in Amazon region are hydroelectric, biomass, and natural gas. Although abundance of these resources, the energy consumption in this region is one of the most low of Brazil. The article overviews this paradox. In this context, economical, geopolitical, and technical aspects are presented

  11. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  12. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/156696207

    2015-01-01

    This essay takes a (green) criminological and multidisciplinary perspective on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, by focusing on the crimes and damages that are associated with Amazonian deforestation. The analysis and results are partly based on longer ethnographic stays in North Brazil (Amazon

  13. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  14. Amazon`s strategic analysis approaching the Spanish market

    OpenAIRE

    Rúa de la Plaza, José

    2018-01-01

    Amazon.com has not stopped growing since its foundation in 1994, and has become the leading company in the world of e-commerce. Amazon emerged from a great idea of its founder Jeff Bezos, who has managed to turn an online books store into a company that is constantly thinking about its customers and trying to innovate, either improving existing products and services, developing new ones or entering new markets. Amazon takes advantage of economies of scale that derive from its excellent dis...

  15. Amazon: Is Profitability a Possibility?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett DENNIS

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s society, companies seem to all be following the same trend; growth in profitability at all cost. Higher profits, for the most part, leads to more investors and more potential financing. Amazon.com appears to be breaking that trend, however. Their strategy seems to be growth, but not in profits. We would like to look into how and why Amazon is growing at such a fast pace, while their profits are staying steady at a very low level. Is profitability a possibility for Amazon? We believe that a marginal increase in price could accomplish just that, with a minimal impact to consumers.

  16. Integrating Ecosystem Management, Protected Areas, and Mammal Conservation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Azevedo-Ramos

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon forest has been converted to a matrix of pristine and modified habitats. Landscape-scale biodiversity conservation requires an understanding of species' distributions over this matrix to guarantee both effective protection and use for present and future generations. In this study, we evaluated how much of the existing and future planned protected areas (PAs would be contributing to the conservation of Brazilian Amazon mammals (N = 399, including threatened species (N = 51. Currently, almost 37% of Brazilian Amazon is protected and that may increase to 46% if planned PAs are implemented. In the current PA system, 22% are indigenous land and 11% are sustainable use units, e.g., production forests. Only one-fifth of the whole range of mammal species occurring in Brazilian Amazon is actually protected by Brazilian PAs. However, considering only the part of the ranges within the Brazilian Amazon, and therefore under the scope of Brazilian actions, Brazilian PAs assume an important role in the protection of 39% of mammal distribution ranges, particularly the threatened species (39%. These results suggest that an integrated network of protected areas among Amazon countries would be necessary to increase their efficiency in mammal conservation. The need for strengthening of the forest sector and good management practices in Brazil appears critical for the maintenance of large extents of forest and species conservation. Under such a scenario, the contribution of developed nations and international agencies must assume an important role for the maintenance and enlargement of the protected area network in Amazon region.

  17. The economic value of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil Costa, Marcos; Pires, Gabrielle; Fontes, Vitor; Brumatti, Livia

    2017-04-01

    The rainy Amazon climate allowed important activities to develop in the region as large rainfed agricultural lands and hydropower plants. The Amazon rainforest is an important source of moisture to the regional atmosphere and helps regulate the local climate. The replacement of forest by agricultural lands decreases the flux of water vapor into the atmosphere and changes the precipitation patterns, which may severely affect such economic activities. Assign an economic value to this ecosystem service may emphasize the significance to preserve the Amazon rainforest. In this work, we provide a first approximation of the quantification of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest using the marginal production method. We use climate scenarios derived from Amazon deforestation scenarios as input to crop and runoff models to assess how land use change would affect agriculture and hydropower generation. The effects of forest removal on soybean production and on cattle beef production can both be as high as US 16 per year per ha deforested, and the effects on hydropower generation can be as high as US 8 per year per ha deforested. We consider this as a conservative estimate of a permanent service provided by the rainforest. Policy makers and other Amazon agriculture and energy businesses must be aware of these numbers, and consider them while planning their activities.

  18. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  19. Future of oil and gas development in the western Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finer, Matt; Babbitt, Bruce; Novoa, Sidney; Ferrarese, Francesco; Pappalardo, Salvatore Eugenio; Marchi, Massimo De; Saucedo, Maria; Kumar, Anjali

    2015-01-01

    The western Amazon is one of the world’s last high-biodiversity wilderness areas, characterized by extraordinary species richness and large tracts of roadless humid tropical forest. It is also home to an active hydrocarbon (oil and gas) sector, characterized by operations in extremely remote areas that require new access routes. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of the hydrocarbon sector and its associated road-building in the western Amazon. Specifically, we document the (a) current panorama, including location and development status of all oil and gas discoveries, of the sector, and (b) current and future scenario of access (i.e. access road versus roadless access) to discoveries. We present an updated 2014 western Amazon hydrocarbon map illustrating that oil and gas blocks now cover 733 414 km 2 , an area much larger than the US state of Texas, and have been expanding since the last assessment in 2008. In terms of access, we documented 11 examples of the access road model and six examples of roadless access across the region. Finally, we documented 35 confirmed and/or suspected untapped hydrocarbon discoveries across the western Amazon. In the Discussion, we argue that if these reserves must be developed, use of the offshore inland model—a method that strategically avoids the construction of access roads—is crucial to minimizing ecological impacts in one of the most globally important conservation regions. (letter)

  20. Is Amazon the next Google?

    OpenAIRE

    Budzinski, Oliver; Köhler, Karoline Henrike

    2015-01-01

    Dominant or apparently dominant internet platform increasingly become subject to both antitrust investigations and further-reaching political calls for regulation. While Google is currently in the focus of the discussion, the next candidate is already on the horizon - the ubiquitous online trading platform Amazon. Competitors and suppliers but also famous economists like Paul Krugman unite in criticizing Amazon's market power and alleged abuse of it. In this paper, we collect the multitude of...

  1. Analogical reasoning in amazons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obozova, Tanya; Smirnova, Anna; Zorina, Zoya; Wasserman, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Two juvenile orange-winged amazons (Amazona amazonica) were initially trained to match visual stimuli by color, shape, and number of items, but not by size. After learning these three identity matching-to-sample tasks, the parrots transferred discriminative responding to new stimuli from the same categories that had been used in training (other colors, shapes, and numbers of items) as well as to stimuli from a different category (stimuli varying in size). In the critical testing phase, both parrots exhibited reliable relational matching-to-sample (RMTS) behavior, suggesting that they perceived and compared the relationship between objects in the sample stimulus pair to the relationship between objects in the comparison stimulus pairs, even though no physical matches were possible between items in the sample and comparison pairs. The parrots spontaneously exhibited this higher-order relational responding without having ever before been trained on RMTS tasks, therefore joining apes and crows in displaying this abstract cognitive behavior.

  2. Violence against Amazon women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Vera Lúcia de Azevedo; Souza, Maria de Lourdes de; Monticelli, Marisa; Oliveira, Marília de Fátima Vieira de; Souza, Carlos Benedito Marinho de; Costa, Carlos Alberto Leal da; Brüggemann, Odaléa Maria

    2009-01-01

    This quantitative and exploratory study analyzed violence against Amazon women presented in print media according to type and severity, and whether aggressors fell under the Maria da Penha law. A total of 181 issues of a regional newspaper were consulted. Based on content analysis, 164 items addressing violence against women were selected and 46 were included in the corpus of analysis. Results were gathered in three thematic groups: women killed with cruelty, sexual violence against women regardless of age, and violence against women and the limitations of the Maria da Penha law. Violence against these women varied in terms of form and severity, including up to homicide. Women are submitted to sexual violence from childhood through adulthood. The enforcement of this law shows the community it has a means to cope with this social phenomenon.

  3. Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlström, Anders; Canadell, Josep G; Schurgers, Guy; Wu, Minchao; Berry, Joseph A; Guan, Kaiyu; Jackson, Robert B

    2017-08-30

    The Amazon rainforest is disproportionately important for global carbon storage and biodiversity. The system couples the atmosphere and land, with moist forest that depends on convection to sustain gross primary productivity and growth. Earth system models that estimate future climate and vegetation show little agreement in Amazon simulations. Here we show that biases in internally generated climate, primarily precipitation, explain most of the uncertainty in Earth system model results; models, empirical data and theory converge when precipitation biases are accounted for. Gross primary productivity, above-ground biomass and tree cover align on a hydrological relationship with a breakpoint at ~2000 mm annual precipitation, where the system transitions between water and radiation limitation of evapotranspiration. The breakpoint appears to be fairly stable in the future, suggesting resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Changes in precipitation and land use are therefore more likely to govern biomass and vegetation structure in Amazonia.Earth system model simulations of future climate in the Amazon show little agreement. Here, the authors show that biases in internally generated climate explain most of this uncertainty and that the balance between water-saturated and water-limited evapotranspiration controls the Amazon resilience to climate change.

  4. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  5. Ozone measurements in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchhoff, V. W. J. H.

    Several scientists of the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (Instituto de Pesquisas Espacias, or INPE; headquarters at Sāo Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo) went to Manaus (3°S, 60°W), in the central region of the Amazon forest during July-August 1985 to study the atmosphere of the equatorial rainforest. The expedition to the Amazon was part of a large binational atmospheric chemistry field campaign that was organized to measure several atmospheric gases of the forest environment. This was definitely the largest scientific field expedition in this field ever performed on Brazilian territory.

  6. Insecta, Coleoptera, Elmidae, Amazon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Passos, M. I. S.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A list of Elmidae species from Amazon is presented. The list was prepared based on a literature surveyand examination of the entomological collection of Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA. The listincludes 102 species, with ten new occurrences recorded, being one for the Amazon (which includes areas ofBrazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, French Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela three for the Amazonas state,and six for other localities in Brazil. Reports about species bibliography contents were also included, as well asavailable species municipalities distributional data.

  7. GoAmazon – Scaling Amazon Carbon Water Couplings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubey, Manvendra Krishna [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-09-06

    Forests soak up 25% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic fossil energy use (10 Gt C y-1) moderating its atmospheric accumulation. How this terrestrial CO2 uptake will evolve with climate change in the 21st century is largely unknown. Rainforests are the most active ecosystems with the Amazon basin storing 120 Gt C as biomass and exchanging 18 Gt C y-1 of CO2 via photosynthesis and respiration and fixing carbon at 2-3 kg C m-2 y-1. Furthermore, the intense hydrologic and carbon cycles are tightly coupled in the Amazon where about half of the water is recycled by evapotranspiration and the other half imported from the ocean by Northeasterly trade winds. Climate models predict a drying in the Amazon with reduced carbon uptake while observationally guided assessments indicate sustained uptake. We will resolve this huge discrepancy in the size and sign of the future Amazon carbon cycle by performing the first simultaneous regional scale high frequency measurements of atmospheric CO2, H2O, HOD, CH4, N2O and CO at the T3 site in Manacupuru, Brazil as part of DOE's GoAmazon project. Our data will be used to inform and develop DOE's CLM on the tropical carbon-water couplings at the appropriate grid scale (10-50km). Our measurements will also validate the CO2 data from Japan's GOSAT and NASA's imminent OCO-2 satellite (launch date July 2014).

  8. The Amazon Basin in transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric A. Davidson; Alessandro C. de Araujo; Paulo Artaxo; Jennifer K. Balch; I. Foster Brown; Mercedes M.C. Bustamente; Michael T. Coe; Ruth S. DeFriess; Michael Keller; Marcos Longo; J. William Munger; Wilfrid Schroeder; Britaldo Soares-Filho; Carlos M. Souza, Jr.; Steven C. Wofsy

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional...

  9. Amazon Fund: financing deforestation avoidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Marcovitch

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon Fund, created in 2008 by the Brazilian Federal Government, is managed by Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES. It is a pioneering initiative to fundraise and manage financial resources to cut back deforestation and support sustainable development for 30 million inhabitants in the Amazon Biome. The Amazon Fund has already received more than R$ 1.7 billion in grants (about USD 787 million. This essay analyzes the Amazon Fund's governance and management with focus on its operation and from its stakeholders' perspectives. A combination of research methods includes: documental research, in-depth interviews, and speech analysis. The study offers a comparative analysis of strengths and weaknesses related to its governance. Furthermore, it proposes ways to improve its management towards greater effectiveness. The essay also includes an assessment of the government of Norway, a major donor to the fund. The governments of Norway and Germany, in partnership with Brazil, reveal how important it is to experiment with new means of international cooperation to successfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions through rainforest preservation.

  10. [Ground-clearing fires in the amazon and respiratory disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Karen dos Santos; de Castro, Hermano Albuquerque; Hacon, Sandra de Souza

    2012-06-01

    The intentional burning of forest biomass commonly known as "ground-clearing fires" is an age-old and widespread practice in the country and is seen as a major contributor to global emissions of greenhouse gases. However, global awareness of their potential impact is relatively recent. The occurrence of large ground-clearing fires in the Brazilian and international scenarios drew attention to the problem, but the measures taken to prevent and/or control the fires are still insufficient. In the Amazon region, with distinct geographical and environmental features from the rest of the country, with its historic process of land occupation, every year the ground-clearing fires expose larger portions of the population making them vulnerable to its effects. In this context, this non-systematic review presents the papers written over the past five years about the fires in the Brazilian Amazon and respiratory illness. The main objective is to provide information for managers and leaders on environmental issues about the problems related to biomass burning in the Amazon region.

  11. Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Divino, Jose Angelo; McAleer, Michael

    2008-01-01

    The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Para (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's North region. Th...

  12. Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. P. Asner; D. E. Knapp; E. N. Broadbent; P. J. C. Oliveira; M Keller; J. N. Silva

    2005-01-01

    Amazon deforestation has been measured by remote sensing for three decades. In comparison, selective logging has been mostly invisible to satellites. We developed a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote-sensing analysis of selective logging in the top five timber-producing states of the Brazilian Amazon. Logged areas ranged from 12,075 to 19,823 square...

  13. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  14. AMAZON HADOOP FRAMEWORK USED IN BUSINESS FOR BIG DATA ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Ankush Verma*, Dr Neelesh Jain

    2017-01-01

    The Amazon MapReduce programming model, introduced by Amazon, a simple and efficient way of performing distributed computation over large data sets on the web especially for e-commerce. Amazon EMR work on Master/Slave Architecture using Amazon EMR for map and reduce big data. Amazon EC2 use cloud computing is a central part of designed web service that provides resizable compute capacity in the cloud. Here we also discuss about the Benefit and limitation of using Amazon EMR. Amazon S3 use eas...

  15. Deep mycoses in Amazon region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talhari, S; Cunha, M G; Schettini, A P; Talhari, A C

    1988-09-01

    Patients with deep mycoses diagnosed in dermatologic clinics of Manaus (state of Amazonas, Brazil) were studied from November 1973 to December 1983. They came from the Brazilian states of Amazonas, Pará, Acre, and Rondônia and the Federal Territory of Roraima. All of these regions, with the exception of Pará, are situated in the western part of the Amazon Basin. The climatic conditions in this region are almost the same: tropical forest, high rainfall, and mean annual temperature of 26C. The deep mycoses diagnosed, in order of frequency, were Jorge Lobo's disease, paracoccidioidomycosis, chromomycosis, sporotrichosis, mycetoma, cryptococcosis, zygomycosis, and histoplasmosis.

  16. Getting started With Amazon Redshift

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Getting Started With Amazon Redshift is a step-by-step, practical guide to the world of Redshift. Learn to load, manage, and query data on Redshift.This book is for CIOs, enterprise architects, developers, and anyone else who needs to get familiar with RedShift. The CIO will gain an understanding of what their technical staff is working on; the technical implementation personnel will get an in-depth view of the technology, and what it will take to implement their own solutions.

  17. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  18. A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

    2009-04-01

    The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

  19. How many more dams in the Amazon?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tundisi, J.G.; Goldemberg, J.; Matsumura-Tundisi, T.; Saraiva, A.C.F.

    2014-01-01

    The Amazon watershed harbors a megadiversity of terrestrial and aquatic plants and animals. Mechanisms that sustain this biodiversity are the water level fluctuations the fluvial dynamics and the intense gene flux due to permanent integration of climatological, geomorphological and biological components of the system. The construction of hydroelectric reservoirs to support economic development of Brazil and other countries that share the Amazon basin will interfere with the ecological dynamics of this ecosystem changing the hydrological, hydrosocial and fundamental processes. Furthermore the construction of Andean reservoirs can disrupt the connectivity with the lower Amazon ecosystem. Principles of ecohydrologies, ecological engineering and preservation of key river basins, have to be applied in order to optimize energy production and promote conservation practices. Long term planning and integration of countries that share the Amazon basin is a strategic decision to control and develop the hydropower exploitation in the region. - Highlights: • The Amazon basin is an ecosystem of megadiversity. • The demand for energy threatens this ecosystem. • Climate, water, forests and floodplain interacts in the Amazon basin. • Dams in the Amazon basin will impact the hydrological and biological systems. • Ecohydrological principles and ecological engineering technology are necessary

  20. The Pulse of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, R. G.; Moura, J. M. S.; Mitsuya, M.; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B.; Holmes, R. M.; Galy, V.; Drake, T.

    2017-12-01

    Rivers integrate over a fixed and definable area (the watershed), with their discharge and chemistry at any given point a function of upstream processes. As a consequence, examination of riverine discharge and chemistry can provide powerful indictors of change within a watershed. To assess the validity of this approach long-term datasets are required from fluvial environments around the globe. The Amazon River delivers one-fifth of the total freshwater discharged to the ocean and so represents a fundamentally important site for examination of long-term major ion, trace element, nutrient, and organic matter (OM) export. Here we describe data from a multi-year, monthly sampling campaign of the Amazon River at Obidos (Para, Brazil). Clear seasonality in all analyte fluxes is apparent and is linked to hydrology, however dissolved OM composition appears dominated by allochthonous sources throughout the year as evidenced by optical parameters indicative of high molecular weight and high relative aromatic content. Annual loads of some analytes for 2011-2013 inclusive varied by up to 50%, highlighting significant variability in flux from year to year that was linked to inter-annual hydrologic shifts (i.e. higher fluxes in wetter years). Finally, encompassing both intra- and inter-annual variability, a robust correlation was observed between chromophoric dissolved OM (CDOM) absorbance and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration highlighting the potential to improve DOC flux estimates at this globally significant site via CDOM measurements from in situ technologies or remote sensing techniques.

  1. Amazon Web Services- a Case Study

    OpenAIRE

    Narendula, Rammohan

    2012-01-01

    The Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a set (more than 25) of proprietary web-based services owned by Amazon.com. All these services ranging from simple storage to sophisticated database services constitute the cloud platform oered by Amazon. An extensive list of customers for AWS include Dropbox, UniLever, Airbnb, Nasdaq, Netflix. As of 2007, there are more than 300K developers actively using AWS. It is one of the pioneers which brought the cloud computing closer to masses helping number of start...

  2. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  3. Trophic opportunism of central Amazon floodplain fish

    OpenAIRE

    Mortillaro, J. M.; Pouilly, Marc; Wach, M.; Freitas, C. E. C.; Abril, G.; Meziane, T.

    2015-01-01

    The food web of the central Amazon basin displays one of the largest discrepancies in food source utilisation versus availability for consumers. While C-4 macrophytes dominate the primary producing biomass in floodplains, the food web is dominated by the use of C-3 carbon sources. Amazon fish species have wide-ranging diets and show feeding flexibility in response to spatial and temporal patterns in food source availability. Fish are therefore expected to use a range of available resources. F...

  4. Archaeometric study of Amazon ceramic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabino, Claudia de Vilhena Schayer; Amaral, Angela Maria; Poirior, Andre Pierre Prous

    2002-01-01

    There is no evidence of urban civilization in Brazilian prehistory; most inhabitants lived in tribal organization, probably with regional economic integration among several independent tribes. There are few evidences of seasonal migrations between the coast and the inland of southern Brazil. Some specialized horticulturists competed among themselves but other groups lived more isolatedly and probably peacefully, in the upper interfluvial regions. The chiefdom system is supposed to have existed only along the Amazon River. In this region, some pottery makers may have been specialized craftsmen and finest ceramics, that should have been exported from one village/region to another, can be found. In this study we tested some limited possibilities in three different cultural and regional contexts to see if application of analytic analysis in economically and politically 'simple' societies should give any results. (author)

  5. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  6. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  7. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

    2011-07-01

    Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change

  8. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  9. Phylogeography of the dark fruit-eating bat Artibeus obscurus in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Wallax Augusto Silva; Borges, Bárbara do Nascimento; Rodrigues-Antunes, Symara; de Andrade, Fernanda Atanaena Gonçalves; Aguiar, Gilberto Ferreira de Souza; de Sousa e Silva-Junior, José; Marques-Aguiar, Suely Aparecida; Harada, Maria Lúcia

    2014-01-01

    Artibeus obscurus (Mammalia: Chiroptera) is endemic to South America, being found in at least 18 Brazilian states. Recent studies revealed that different populations of this genus present distinct phylogeographic patterns; however, very little is known on the population genetics structure of A. obscurus in the Amazon rainforest. Here, using a fragment (1010bp) of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b from 87 samples, we investigated patterns of genetic divergence among populations of A. obscurus from different locations in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest and compared them with other Brazilian and South American regions. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), fixation index (Fst) analysis, and phylogeographic patterns showed divergence between two major monophyletic groups, each one corresponding to a geographic region associated with the Atlantic and Amazon forest biomes. The Atlantic forest clusters formed a monophyletic group with a high bootstrap support and a fragmented distribution that follows the pattern predicted by the Refuge Theory. On the other hand, a different scenario was observed for the Amazon forest, where no fragmentation was identified. The AMOVA results revealed a significant geographic heterogeneity in the distribution of genetic variation, with 70% found within populations across the studied populations (Fst values ranging from 0.05864 to 0.09673; φST = 0.55). The intrapopulational analysis revealed that one population (Bragança) showed significant evidence of population expansion, with the formation of 2 distinct phylogroups, suggesting the occurrence of a subspecies or at least a different population in this region. These results also suggest considerable heterogeneity for A. obscurus in the Amazon region.

  10. Use and management of the natural resources of the Colombian Amazon rain forest: a biological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Yaneth Landínez Torres

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the main features associated with biological use practices and management of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon. The theoretical cut proposal contrasts biological level, the forms of appropriation of forest resources in indigenous and urban contexts depending on the importance that such activity involves the establishment of management strategies biodiversity in Colombia. In this way, provides an integrative perspective that will address conflict situations considering environmental factors not only biological but cultural in various scenarios , to give sustenance to the decisions made and provide a reasonable treatment that enables the implementation of environmental regulation mechanisms in especially in areas such as strategic biological Colombian Amazon. Finally, reflect on the importance of facilitating the functional analysis of the connections and interrelationships of ecosystem components, including human communities, sketching involving both biological and social guidelines for sustainable use of biodiversity.

  11. Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Divino (Jose Angelo); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the

  12. Business as Usual: Amazon.com and the Academic Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Ullen, Mary K.; Germain, Carol Anne

    2002-01-01

    In 1999, Steve Coffman proposed that libraries form a single interlibrary loan based entity patterned after Amazon.com. This study examined the suitability of Amazon.com's Web interface and record enhancements for academic libraries. Amazon.com could not deliver circulating monographs in the University at Albany Libraries' collection quickly…

  13. Soluble iron nutrients in Saharan dust over the central Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzolo, Joana A.; Barbosa, Cybelli G. G.; Borillo, Guilherme C.; Godoi, Ana F. L.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Andreoli, Rita V.; Manzi, Antônio O.; Sá, Marta O.; Alves, Eliane G.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Angelis, Isabella H.; Ditas, Florian; Saturno, Jorge; Moran-Zuloaga, Daniel; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Rosário, Nilton E.; Pauliquevis, Theotonio; Santos, Rosa M. N.; Yamamoto, Carlos I.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Artaxo, Paulo; Taylor, Philip E.; Godoi, Ricardo H. M.

    2017-02-01

    The intercontinental transport of aerosols from the Sahara desert plays a significant role in nutrient cycles in the Amazon rainforest, since it carries many types of minerals to these otherwise low-fertility lands. Iron is one of the micronutrients essential for plant growth, and its long-range transport might be an important source for the iron-limited Amazon rainforest. This study assesses the bioavailability of iron Fe(II) and Fe(III) in the particulate matter over the Amazon forest, which was transported from the Sahara desert (for the sake of our discussion, this term also includes the Sahel region). The sampling campaign was carried out above and below the forest canopy at the ATTO site (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory), a near-pristine area in the central Amazon Basin, from March to April 2015. Measurements reached peak concentrations for soluble Fe(III) (48 ng m-3), Fe(II) (16 ng m-3), Na (470 ng m-3), Ca (194 ng m-3), K (65 ng m-3), and Mg (89 ng m-3) during a time period of dust transport from the Sahara, as confirmed by ground-based and satellite remote sensing data and air mass backward trajectories. Dust sampled above the Amazon canopy included primary biological aerosols and other coarse particles up to 12 µm in diameter. Atmospheric transport of weathered Saharan dust, followed by surface deposition, resulted in substantial iron bioavailability across the rainforest canopy. The seasonal deposition of dust, rich in soluble iron, and other minerals is likely to assist both bacteria and fungi within the topsoil and on canopy surfaces, and especially benefit highly bioabsorbent species. In this scenario, Saharan dust can provide essential macronutrients and micronutrients to plant roots, and also directly to plant leaves. The influence of this input on the ecology of the forest canopy and topsoil is discussed, and we argue that this influence would likely be different from that of nutrients from the weathered Amazon bedrock, which otherwise provides the

  14. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  15. The Vine Trust's Amazon Hope boats--providing a dental service on the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Shona M C

    2013-01-01

    The Vine Trust's Amazon Hope Project is a medical and dental programme providing healthcare to communities along the Amazon River in Peru. Volunteers from the UK and other countries work alongside Peruvian staff employed by their partner organization, Union Biblica del Peru, to provide a health service from a boat which serves communities on several tributaries who otherwise would have no other access to care. The dental programme involves a basic restorative and extraction service, with scope to develop a preventive programme. Dentists'and DCPs' skills are transferable globally: this article illustrates how one volunteer dental project is working to provide relevant and sustainable dental health care in the Amazon jungle.

  16. The changing hydrology of a dammed Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpe, Kelsie; Kaplan, David

    2017-01-01

    Developing countries around the world are expanding hydropower to meet growing energy demand. In the Brazilian Amazon, >200 dams are planned over the next 30 years, and questions about the impacts of current and future hydropower in this globally important watershed remain unanswered. In this context, we applied a hydrologic indicator method to quantify how existing Amazon dams have altered the natural flow regime and to identify predictors of alteration. The type and magnitude of hydrologic alteration varied widely by dam, but the largest changes were to critical characteristics of the flood pulse. Impacts were largest for low-elevation, large-reservoir dams; however, small dams had enormous impacts relative to electricity production. Finally, the “cumulative” effect of multiple dams was significant but only for some aspects of the flow regime. This analysis is a first step toward the development of environmental flows plans and policies relevant to the Amazon and other megadiverse river basins. PMID:29109972

  17. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

    2017-06-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

  18. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  19. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  20. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  1. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  2. Amazon: Navigating the Jungle of a Business

    OpenAIRE

    McIntosh Theroux, Brett; Rais El Fenni, Tarik

    2014-01-01

    This project investigated Amazon.com, Inc’s business model and environment, particularly, the effect of Amazon’s implementation of a drone delivery system and the Amazon Fire TV, and its related services. This was achieved through an examination of four areas, the four working questions; revolving around an analysis and discussion of Amazon’s business model and environment, with particular focus on the two new features. Also, an analysis and discussion of how Amazon’s business model could be ...

  3. Rethinking the strategy of Amazon.com

    OpenAIRE

    Heng, Michael S.H.

    2001-01-01

    The strategic challenge facing Amazon.com is that it is not able to convince the investment community that it is able to generate profits in the long run. The doubt of investors is well grounded. This paper argues that Amazon should make a strategic shift to operate as a provider of technical services and business consulting in the area of business-to-consumer e-commerce. At the same time it should reduce the range of the items sold on-line to, say, books and CDs, and treat this part of its b...

  4. Greenhouse problem in the Amazon jungle clearing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, E.J.; Margulis, S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses the contribution of Amazon jungle clearing to the greenhouse problem and makes an assessment of long-run prospects. The introductory sections pose the problem from both international and Brazilian perspectives. The next section describes major features of the Amazonia ecosystems and presents methods and evidence on deforestation and on its impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Based upon cross-section information for a sample of municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon, the following section estimates elasticities of deforestation in relation to major economic factors- government policies included- and uses them to make projections for the future pace of deforestation. The last section discusses policy alternatives to slow down forest conversion

  5. The Amazon, measuring a mighty river

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1967-01-01

    The Amazon, the world's largest river, discharges enough water into the sea each day to provide fresh water to the City of New York for over 9 years. Its flow accounts for about 15 percent of all the fresh water discharged into the oceans by all the rivers of the world. By comparison, the Amazon's flow is over 4 times that of the Congo River, the world's second largest river. And it is 10 times that of the Mississippi, the largest river on the North American Continent.

  6. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  7. Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Mercado, Lina; Booth, Ben B B; Sitch, Stephen; Harris, Phil P; Cox, Peter M; Jones, Chris D; Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Glen R; Collins, Mat; Moorcroft, Paul

    2008-05-27

    Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the

  8. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  9. Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

    2017-12-01

    The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Land Use Dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Walker

    1996-01-01

    The articles presented in this special issue of Ecological Economics address the important theme of land use dynamics as it pertains to the Brazilian Amazon. Much environmental change is an ecological artifact of human agency, and such agency is often manifested in land use impacts, particularly in tropical areas. The critical problem of tropical deforestation is but...

  11. Health Concerns in the Amazon Region

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Residents of the Amazon region of South America contend with a number of health threats - from mosquito-borne diseases to difficulty accessing doctors and healthcare facilities in such a vast area. This podcast helps explore some of the health issues in the region and what's being done to address them.

  12. Charcoal chronology of the Amazon forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goulart, Ana Carolina; Macario, Kita D.; Scheel-Ybert, Rita; Alves, Eduardo Q.; Bachelet, Caroline; Pereira, Bruna B.; Levis, Carolina; Marimon Junior, Ben Hur; Marimon, Beatriz S.; Quesada, Carlos Alberto; Feldpausch, Ted R.

    2017-01-01

    The Amazon region holds a wide variety of ethnic groups and microclimates, enabling different interactions between humans and environment. To better understand the evolution of this region, ancient remains need to be analysed by all possible means. In this context, the study of natural and/or

  13. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers,

  14. Principal Connection / Amazon and the Whole Teacher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerr, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    A recent controversy over Amazon's culture has strong implications for the whole child approach, and it offers powerful lessons for principals. A significant difference between the culture of so many businesses today and the culture at good schools is that in good schools, the welfare of the employees is very important. Student success is the…

  15. Does the Amazon suffer from BSE prevention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elferink, E.V.; Nonhebel, S.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    In the last decade, large-scale production of soybeans has been a major driver of the enhanced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that these soybeans are mainly exported to the EU to substitute for the BSE related banned meat and bone meal in livestock feed. This strongly suggests a link

  16. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  17. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  18. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  19. An overview of malaria transmission from the perspective of Amazon Anopheles vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo FP Pimenta

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In the Americas, areas with a high risk of malaria transmission are mainly located in the Amazon Forest, which extends across nine countries. One keystone step to understanding the Plasmodium life cycle in Anopheles species from the Amazon Region is to obtain experimentally infected mosquito vectors. Several attempts to colonise Ano- pheles species have been conducted, but with only short-lived success or no success at all. In this review, we review the literature on malaria transmission from the perspective of its Amazon vectors. Currently, it is possible to develop experimental Plasmodium vivax infection of the colonised and field-captured vectors in laboratories located close to Amazonian endemic areas. We are also reviewing studies related to the immune response to P. vivax infection of Anopheles aquasalis, a coastal mosquito species. Finally, we discuss the importance of the modulation of Plasmodium infection by the vector microbiota and also consider the anopheline genomes. The establishment of experimental mosquito infections with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium berghei parasites that could provide interesting models for studying malaria in the Amazonian scenario is important. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the development of the parasites in New World vectors is crucial in order to better determine the interaction process and vectorial competence.

  20. An overview of malaria transmission from the perspective of Amazon Anopheles vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenta, Paulo FP; Orfano, Alessandra S; Bahia, Ana C; Duarte, Ana PM; Ríos-Velásquez, Claudia M; Melo, Fabrício F; Pessoa, Felipe AC; Oliveira, Giselle A; Campos, Keillen MM; Villegas, Luis Martínez; Rodrigues, Nilton Barnabé; Nacif-Pimenta, Rafael; Simões, Rejane C; Monteiro, Wuelton M; Amino, Rogerio; Traub-Cseko, Yara M; Lima, José BP; Barbosa, Maria GV; Lacerda, Marcus VG; Tadei, Wanderli P; Secundino, Nágila FC

    2015-01-01

    In the Americas, areas with a high risk of malaria transmission are mainly located in the Amazon Forest, which extends across nine countries. One keystone step to understanding the Plasmodium life cycle in Anopheles species from the Amazon Region is to obtain experimentally infected mosquito vectors. Several attempts to colonise Ano- pheles species have been conducted, but with only short-lived success or no success at all. In this review, we review the literature on malaria transmission from the perspective of its Amazon vectors. Currently, it is possible to develop experimental Plasmodium vivax infection of the colonised and field-captured vectors in laboratories located close to Amazonian endemic areas. We are also reviewing studies related to the immune response to P. vivax infection of Anopheles aquasalis, a coastal mosquito species. Finally, we discuss the importance of the modulation of Plasmodium infection by the vector microbiota and also consider the anopheline genomes. The establishment of experimental mosquito infections with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium berghei parasites that could provide interesting models for studying malaria in the Amazonian scenario is important. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the development of the parasites in New World vectors is crucial in order to better determine the interaction process and vectorial competence. PMID:25742262

  1. Evaluation of last extreme drought events in Amazon basin using remotely sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panisset, Jéssica S.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Libonati, Renata; Peres, Leonardo; Machado-Silva, Fausto; França, Daniela A.; França, José R. A.

    2017-04-01

    Amazon basin has experienced several intense droughts among which were highlighted last recent ones in 2005 and 2010. Climate models suggest these events will be even more frequent due to higher concentration of greenhouse gases that are also driven forward by alteration in forest dynamics. Environmental and social impacts demand to identify these intense droughts and the behavior of climate parameters that affect vegetation. This present study also identifies a recent intense drought in Amazon basin during 2015. Meteorological parameters and vegetation indices suggest this event was the most severe already registered in the region. We have used land surface temperature (LST), vegetation indices, rainfall and shortwave radiation from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and compare droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2015. Our results show singularities among the three climate extreme events. The austral winter was the most affected season in 2005 and 2010, but not in 2015 when austral summer presented extreme conditions. Precipitation indicates epicenter of 2005 in west Amazon corroborating with previous studies. In 2010, the west region was strongly affected again together with the northwest and the southeast areas. However, 2015 epicenters were concentrated in the east of the basin. In 2015, shortwave radiation has exceeded the maximum values of 2005 and temperature the maximum value of 2010. Vegetation indices have shown positive and negative anomalies. Despite of heterogenous response of Amazon forest to drought, hybrid vegetation indices using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and LST highlights the exceptionality of 2015 drought episode that exhibits higher vegetation water stress than the cases of 2010 and 2005. Finally, this work has shown how meteorological parameters influence droughts and the effects on vegetation in Amazon basin. Complexity of climate, ecosystem heterogeneity and high diversity of Amazon forest are response by idiosyncrasies of each drought. All

  2. Large expansion of oil industry in the Ecuadorian Amazon: biodiversity vulnerability and conservation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessmann, Janeth; Fajardo, Javier; Muñoz, Jesús; Bonaccorso, Elisa

    2016-07-01

    Ecuador will experience a significant expansion of the oil industry in its Amazonian region, one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. In view of the changes that are about to come, we explore the conflicts between oil extraction interests and biodiversity protection and apply systematic conservation planning to identify priority areas that should be protected in different oil exploitation scenarios. First, we quantified the current extent of oil blocks and protected zones and their overlap with two biodiversity indicators: 25 ecosystems and 745 species (whose distributions were estimated via species distribution models). With the new scheme of oil exploitation, oil blocks cover 68% (68,196 km(2)) of the Ecuadorian Amazon; half of it occupied by new blocks open for bids in the southern Amazon. This region is especially vulnerable to biodiversity losses, because peaks of species diversity, 19 ecosystems, and a third of its protected zones coincide spatially with oil blocks. Under these circumstances, we used Marxan software to identify priority areas for conservation outside oil blocks, but their coverage was insufficient to completely represent biodiversity. Instead, priority areas that include southern oil blocks provide a higher representation of biodiversity indicators. Therefore, preserving the southern Amazon becomes essential to improve the protection of Amazonian biodiversity in Ecuador, and avoiding oil exploitation in these areas (33% of the extent of southern oil blocks) should be considered a conservation alternative. Also, it is highly recommended to improve current oil exploitation technology to reduce environmental impacts in the region, especially within five oil blocks that we identified as most valuable for the conservation of biodiversity. The application of these and other recommendations depends heavily on the Ecuadorian government, which needs to find a better balance between the use of the Amazon resources and biodiversity conservation.

  3. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Le Page

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

  4. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  5. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  6. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  7. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  8. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  9. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  12. Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng Ning; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Marengo, Jose A; Nobre, Carlos A; Subramaniam, Ajit; Mariotti, Annarita; Neelin, J David

    2008-01-01

    A rare drought in the Amazon culminated in 2005, leading to near record-low streamflows, small Amazon river plume, and greatly enhanced fire frequency. This episode was caused by the combination of 2002-03 El Nino and a dry spell in 2005 attributable to a warm subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Analysis for 1979-2005 reveals that the Atlantic influence is comparable to the better-known Pacific linkage. While the Pacific influence is typically locked to the wet season, the 2005 Atlantic impact concentrated in the Amazon dry season when its hydroecosystem is most vulnerable. Such mechanisms may have wide-ranging implications for the future of the Amazon rainforest

  13. [Folklore and popular medicine in the Amazon].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrique, Márcio Couto

    2009-01-01

    This discussion of the relations between folklore and popular medicine in the Amazon takes Canuto Azevedo's story "Filhos do boto" (Children of the porpoise) as an analytical reference point. Replete with elements of cultural reality, folk tales can serve as historical testimonies expressing clashes between different traditions. Folk records are fruit of what is often a quarrelsome dialogue between folklorists, social scientists, physicians, and pajés and their followers, and their analysis should take into account the conditions under which they were produced. Based on the imaginary attached to the figure of the porpoise--a seductive creature with healing powers--the article explores how we might expand knowledge of popular medicine as practiced in the Amazon, where the shamanistic rite known as pajelança cabocla has a strong presence.

  14. Pilvipalvelut: Microsoft Azure vs. Amazon Web Services

    OpenAIRE

    Aro, Marko

    2016-01-01

    Opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena oli tutustua kahteen suosittuun pilvipalveluntarjoajaan, Microsoft Azureen ja Amazon Web Serviceen, sekä vertailla miten ne eroavat toisistaan ominaisuuksiltaan, palveluiltaan ja hinnoittelultaan. Opinnäytetyön tavoitteena oli antaa hyvä yleiskuva vertailtavista pilvipalveluntarjoajista, niiden tarjoamista palveluista, ja niiden sopivuudesta yrityksen pilviratkaisuksi. Vertailu tehtiin yrityksen näkökulmasta. Työn alussa tarkasteltiin pilvipalveluita yleisesti ...

  15. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers, the oldest human societies. The green criminological perspective also implies that the definition of victimisation is being enlarged: not only (future) humans, but also non-humans can be considered...

  16. Health Concerns in the Amazon Region

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-09

    Residents of the Amazon region of South America contend with a number of health threats - from mosquito-borne diseases to difficulty accessing doctors and healthcare facilities in such a vast area. This podcast helps explore some of the health issues in the region and what's being done to address them.  Created: 4/9/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 4/9/2009.

  17. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-04-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

  18. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  19. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  20. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  1. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  2. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  3. Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

  4. Combined effects of climate change and forest clearing on the Amazon vegetation: Projections for 2080-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2007-05-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.

  5. Isoprene photochemistry over the Amazon rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yingjun; Brito, Joel; Dorris, Matthew R; Rivera-Rios, Jean C; Seco, Roger; Bates, Kelvin H; Artaxo, Paulo; Duvoisin, Sergio; Keutsch, Frank N; Kim, Saewung; Goldstein, Allen H; Guenther, Alex B; Manzi, Antonio O; Souza, Rodrigo A F; Springston, Stephen R; Watson, Thomas B; McKinney, Karena A; Martin, Scot T

    2016-05-31

    Isoprene photooxidation is a major driver of atmospheric chemistry over forested regions. Isoprene reacts with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and molecular oxygen to produce isoprene peroxy radicals (ISOPOO). These radicals can react with hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) to dominantly produce hydroxyhydroperoxides (ISOPOOH). They can also react with nitric oxide (NO) to largely produce methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR). Unimolecular isomerization and bimolecular reactions with organic peroxy radicals are also possible. There is uncertainty about the relative importance of each of these pathways in the atmosphere and possible changes because of anthropogenic pollution. Herein, measurements of ISOPOOH and MVK + MACR concentrations are reported over the central region of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The research site, downwind of an urban region, intercepted both background and polluted air masses during the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. Under background conditions, the confidence interval for the ratio of the ISOPOOH concentration to that of MVK + MACR spanned 0.4-0.6. This result implies a ratio of the reaction rate of ISOPOO with HO2 to that with NO of approximately unity. A value of unity is significantly smaller than simulated at present by global chemical transport models for this important, nominally low-NO, forested region of Earth. Under polluted conditions, when the concentrations of reactive nitrogen compounds were high (>1 ppb), ISOPOOH concentrations dropped below the instrumental detection limit (Amazon rainforest.

  6. Potential groundwater contribution to Amazon evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.; Miguez-Macho, G.

    2010-07-01

    Climate and land ecosystem models simulate a dry-season vegetation stress in the Amazon forest, but observations show enhanced growth in response to higher radiation under less cloudy skies, indicating an adequate water supply. Proposed mechanisms include larger soil water store and deeper roots in nature and the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution). Here we assess the importance of the upward soil water flux from the groundwater driven by capillarity. We present a map of water table depth from observations and groundwater modeling, and a map of potential capillary flux these water table depths can sustain. The maps show that the water table beneath the Amazon can be quite shallow in lowlands and river valleys (2.1 mm day-1 to the land surface averaged over Amazonia, but varies from 0.6 to 3.7 mm day-1 across nine study sites. Current models simulate a large-scale reduction in dry-season photosynthesis under today's climate and a possible dieback under projected future climate with a longer dry season, converting the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a source and accelerating warming. The inclusion of groundwater and capillary flux may modify the model results.

  7. Petrobras eyes LNG project in Amazon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    The Brazilian state oil company has proved gas reserves in the Rio Urucu area of the Amazon jungle totaling 1.84 tcf. That compares with 3.08 tcf contained in the offshore Campos basin, source of most of Brazil's oil and gas production. The environmentally sensitive Urucu region is one of the most dense, remote jungles in the world. Because of environmental concerns about pipelines in the rain forest and a government emphasis on boosting the natural gas share of Brazil's energy mix, a small liquefied natural gas project is shaping up as the best option for developing and marketing Urucu gas. The amazon campaign underscores a government initiative to boost Brazilian consumption of natural gas. In Brazil natural gas accounts for only 4% of primary energy consumption. Some years ago, the government set an official goal of boosting the gas share of the primary energy mix to 10% by 2000. The paper discusses current drilling activities, gas production and processing, the logistics of the upper Amazon, and gas markets

  8. Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

    2011-12-01

    Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

  9. Pharmacokinetics of Compounded Intravenous and Oral Gabapentin in Hispaniolan Amazon Parrots ( Amazona ventralis ).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baine, Katherine; Jones, Michael P; Cox, Sherry; Martín-Jiménez, Tomás

    2015-09-01

    Neuropathic pain is a manifestation of chronic pain that arises with damage to the somatosensory system. Pharmacologic treatment recommendations for alleviation of neuropathic pain are often multimodal, and the few reports communicating treatment of suspected neuropathic pain in avian patients describe the use of gabapentin as part of the therapeutic regimen. To determine the pharmacokinetics of gabapentin in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots ( Amazona ventralis ), compounded gabapentin suspensions were administered at 30 mg/kg IV to 2 birds, 10 mg/kg PO to 3 birds, and 30 mg/kg PO to 3 birds. Blood samples were collected immediately before and at 9 different time points after drug administration. Plasma samples were analyzed for gabapentin concentration, and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated with both a nonlinear mixed-effect approach and a noncompartmental analysis. The best compartmental, oral model was used to simulate the concentration-time profiles resulting from different dosing scenarios. Mild sedation was observed in both study birds after intravenous injection. Computer simulation of different dosing scenarios with the mean parameter estimates showed that 15 mg/kg every 8 hours would be a starting point for oral dosing in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots based on effective plasma concentrations reported for human patients; however, additional studies need to be performed to establish a therapeutic dose.

  10. Bayesian inferences suggest that Amazon Yunga Natives diverged from Andeans less than 5000 ybp: implications for South American prehistory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scliar, Marilia O; Gouveia, Mateus H; Benazzo, Andrea; Ghirotto, Silvia; Fagundes, Nelson J R; Leal, Thiago P; Magalhães, Wagner C S; Pereira, Latife; Rodrigues, Maira R; Soares-Souza, Giordano B; Cabrera, Lilia; Berg, Douglas E; Gilman, Robert H; Bertorelle, Giorgio; Tarazona-Santos, Eduardo

    2014-09-30

    Archaeology reports millenary cultural contacts between Peruvian Coast-Andes and the Amazon Yunga, a rainforest transitional region between Andes and Lower Amazonia. To clarify the relationships between cultural and biological evolution of these populations, in particular between Amazon Yungas and Andeans, we used DNA-sequence data, a model-based Bayesian approach and several statistical validations to infer a set of demographic parameters. We found that the genetic diversity of the Shimaa (an Amazon Yunga population) is a subset of that of Quechuas from Central-Andes. Using the Isolation-with-Migration population genetics model, we inferred that the Shimaa ancestors were a small subgroup that split less than 5300 years ago (after the development of complex societies) from an ancestral Andean population. After the split, the most plausible scenario compatible with our results is that the ancestors of Shimaas moved toward the Peruvian Amazon Yunga and incorporated the culture and language of some of their neighbors, but not a substantial amount of their genes. We validated our results using Approximate Bayesian Computations, posterior predictive tests and the analysis of pseudo-observed datasets. We presented a case study in which model-based Bayesian approaches, combined with necessary statistical validations, shed light into the prehistoric demographic relationship between Andeans and a population from the Amazon Yunga. Our results offer a testable model for the peopling of this large transitional environmental region between the Andes and the Lower Amazonia. However, studies on larger samples and involving more populations of these regions are necessary to confirm if the predominant Andean biological origin of the Shimaas is the rule, and not the exception.

  11. Impact of Atmospheric Albedo on Amazon Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, A. V.; Thompson, S. E.; Dracup, J. A.

    2013-12-01

    The vulnerability of the Amazon region to climate and anthropogenic driven disturbances has been the subject of extensive research efforts, given its importance in the global and regional climate and ecologic systems. The evaluation of such vulnerabilities requires the proper understanding of physical mechanisms controlling water and energy balances and how the disturbances change them. Among those mechanisms, the effects of atmospheric albedo on evapotranspiration have not been fully explored yet and are explored in this study. Evapotranspiration in the Amazon is sustained at high levels across all seasons and represents a large fraction of water and energy surface budgets. In this study, statistical analysis of data from four flux towers installed at Amazon primary forest sites was employed to quantify the impact of atmospheric albedo, mostly resulted from cloudiness, on evapotranspiration and to compare it to the effect of water limitation. Firstly, the difference in eddy-flux derived evapotranspiration at the flux towers under rainy and non-rainy antecedent conditions was tested for significance. Secondly, the same statistical comparison was performed under cloudy and clear sky conditions at hourly and daily time scales, using the reduction in incoming solar radiation as an indicator of cloudiness. Finally, the sensitivity of seasonal evapotranspiration totals to atmospheric albedo resulted from rainfall patterns is evaluated. That was done by sampling daily evapotranspiration estimates from empirical probability distribution functions conditioned to rainfall occurrence and then varying the number of dry days in each season. It was found that light limitation is much more important than water limitation in the Amazon, resulting in up to 43% reduction in daily evapotranspiration. Also, this effect varies by location and by season, the largest impact being in wet season, from December do January. Moreover, seasonal evapotranspiration totals were found to be

  12. Introduction: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Martin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin for 2 years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and quantify these linked processes, first under natural conditions to obtain a baseline and second when altered by the effects of human activities. To this end, the pollution plume from the Manaus metropolis, superimposed on the background conditions of the central Amazon basin, served as a natural laboratory. The present paper, as the introduction to the special issue of GoAmazon2014/5, presents the context and motivation of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The nine research sites, including the characteristics and instrumentation of each site, are presented. The sites range from time point zero (T0 upwind of the pollution, to T1 in the midst of the pollution, to T2 just downwind of the pollution, to T3 furthest downwind of the pollution (70 km. In addition to the ground sites, a low-altitude G-159 Gulfstream I (G-1 observed the atmospheric boundary layer and low clouds, and a high-altitude Gulfstream G550 (HALO operated in the free troposphere. During the 2-year experiment, two Intensive Operating Periods (IOP1 and IOP2 also took place that included additional specialized research instrumentation at the ground sites as well as flights of the two aircraft. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP1 was carried out from 1 February to 31 March 2014 in the wet season. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP2 was conducted from 15 August to 15 October 2014 in the dry season. The G-1 aircraft flew during both IOP1 and IOP2, and the HALO aircraft flew during IOP2. In the context of the Amazon basin, the two IOPs also

  13. Introduction: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, S. T.; Artaxo, P.; Machado, L. A. T.; Manzi, A. O.; Souza, R. A. F.; Schumacher, C.; Wang, J.; Andreae, M. O.; Barbosa, H. M. J.; Fan, J.; Fisch, G.; Goldstein, A. H.; Guenther, A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Pöschl, U.; Silva Dias, M. A.; Smith, J. N.; Wendisch, M.

    2016-04-01

    The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin for 2 years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and quantify these linked processes, first under natural conditions to obtain a baseline and second when altered by the effects of human activities. To this end, the pollution plume from the Manaus metropolis, superimposed on the background conditions of the central Amazon basin, served as a natural laboratory. The present paper, as the introduction to the special issue of GoAmazon2014/5, presents the context and motivation of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The nine research sites, including the characteristics and instrumentation of each site, are presented. The sites range from time point zero (T0) upwind of the pollution, to T1 in the midst of the pollution, to T2 just downwind of the pollution, to T3 furthest downwind of the pollution (70 km). In addition to the ground sites, a low-altitude G-159 Gulfstream I (G-1) observed the atmospheric boundary layer and low clouds, and a high-altitude Gulfstream G550 (HALO) operated in the free troposphere. During the 2-year experiment, two Intensive Operating Periods (IOP1 and IOP2) also took place that included additional specialized research instrumentation at the ground sites as well as flights of the two aircraft. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP1 was carried out from 1 February to 31 March 2014 in the wet season. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP2 was conducted from 15 August to 15 October 2014 in the dry season. The G-1 aircraft flew during both IOP1 and IOP2, and the HALO aircraft flew during IOP2. In the context of the Amazon basin, the two IOPs also correspond to the clean and

  14. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  15. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  16. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  17. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  18. Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miguel Ayala, Laura; Eupen, van Michiel; Zhang, Guoping; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Martorano, Lucieta G.; Lisboa, Leila S.; Beltrao, Norma E.

    2016-01-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent

  19. Vulnerability of Amazon forests to storm-driven tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Holm, Jennifer A.; Magnabosco Marra, Daniel; Rifai, Sami W.; Riley, William J.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Koven, Charles D.; Knox, Ryan G.; McGroddy, Megan E.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Urquiza-Muñoz, Jose; Tello-Espinoza, Rodil; Alegria Muñoz, Waldemar; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Higuchi, Niro

    2018-05-01

    Tree mortality is a key driver of forest community composition and carbon dynamics. Strong winds associated with severe convective storms are dominant natural drivers of tree mortality in the Amazon. Why forests vary with respect to their vulnerability to wind events and how the predicted increase in storm events might affect forest ecosystems within the Amazon are not well understood. We found that windthrows are common in the Amazon region extending from northwest (Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, and west Brazil) to central Brazil, with the highest occurrence of windthrows in the northwest Amazon. More frequent winds, produced by more frequent severe convective systems, in combination with well-known processes that limit the anchoring of trees in the soil, help to explain the higher vulnerability of the northwest Amazon forests to winds. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of convective storms in the Amazon have the potential to increase wind-related tree mortality. A forest demographic model calibrated for the northwestern and the central Amazon showed that northwestern forests are more resilient to increased wind-related tree mortality than forests in the central Amazon. Our study emphasizes the importance of including wind-related tree mortality in model simulations for reliable predictions of the future of tropical forests and their effects on the Earth’ system.

  20. Amazon soils : a reconnaissance of the soils of the Brazilian Amazon region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sombroek, W.G.

    1966-01-01

    The study deals with soils of the Brazilian part of the Amazon basin. Most soils are Latosols, some with soft or hardened plinthite. The Latosols are characterized by a latosolic B horizon as defined in Brazil.

    Plinthite, its formation and morphology were extensively described. Five main

  1. Unusual presentation of an Amazon parrot (Amazon a species) with hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freeman, K.P.; Hahn, K.A.; Jones, M.P.; Petersen, M.G.; Toal, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    Non-haematopoietic hepatic malignancies are uncommon in birds. The clinical presentation (i.e, chronic buphthalmos) and non-specific radiographic findings observed in this adult Amazon parrot (Amazona spp,) were not consistent with previous reports describing the natural behaviour of metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma in birds

  2. Metagenome sequencing of the microbial community of two Brazilian anthropogenic Amazon dark earth sites, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemos, Leandro Nascimento; de Souza, Rosineide Cardoso; de Souza Cannavan, Fabiana; Patricio, André; Pylro, Victor Satler; Hanada, Rogério Eiji; Mui, Tsai Siu

    2016-12-01

    The Anthropogenic Amazon Dark Earth soil is considered one of the world's most fertile soils. These soils differs from conventional Amazon soils because its higher organic content concentration. Here we describe the metagenome sequencing of microbial communities of two sites of Anthropogenic Amazon Dark Earth soils from Amazon Rainforest, Brazil. The raw sequence data are stored under Short Read Accession number: PRJNA344917.

  3. Proliferation of hydroelectric dams in the Andean Amazon and implications for Andes-Amazon connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N

    2012-01-01

    Due to rising energy demands and abundant untapped potential, hydropower projects are rapidly increasing in the Neotropics. This is especially true in the wet and rugged Andean Amazon, where regional governments are prioritizing new hydroelectric dams as the centerpiece of long-term energy plans. However, the current planning for hydropower lacks adequate regional and basin-scale assessment of potential ecological impacts. This lack of strategic planning is particularly problematic given the intimate link between the Andes and Amazonian flood plain, together one of the most species rich zones on Earth. We examined the potential ecological impacts, in terms of river connectivity and forest loss, of the planned proliferation of hydroelectric dams across all Andean tributaries of the Amazon River. Considering data on the full portfolios of existing and planned dams, along with data on roads and transmission line systems, we developed a new conceptual framework to estimate the relative impacts of all planned dams. There are plans for 151 new dams greater than 2 MW over the next 20 years, more than a 300% increase. These dams would include five of the six major Andean tributaries of the Amazon. Our ecological impact analysis classified 47% of the potential new dams as high impact and just 19% as low impact. Sixty percent of the dams would cause the first major break in connectivity between protected Andean headwaters and the lowland Amazon. More than 80% would drive deforestation due to new roads, transmission lines, or inundation. We conclude with a discussion of three major policy implications of these findings. 1) There is a critical need for further strategic regional and basin scale evaluation of dams. 2) There is an urgent need for a strategic plan to maintain Andes-Amazon connectivity. 3) Reconsideration of hydropower as a low-impact energy source in the Neotropics.

  4. Green Ocean Amazon 2014/15 – Scaling Amazon Carbon Water Couplings Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubey, Manvendra [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Parket, Harrison [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Myers, Katherine [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rahn, Thom [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Christoffersson, B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wunch, Debra [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Wennberg, Paul [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Forests soak up 25% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic fossil energy use (10 Gt C y-1), moderating its atmospheric accumulation. How this terrestrial CO2 uptake will evolve with climate change in the 21st Century is largely unknown. Rainforests are the most active ecosystems, with the Amazon basin storing 120 Gt C as biomass and exchanging 18 Gt C y-1 of CO2 via photosynthesis and respiration and fixing carbon at 2-3 kg C m-2 y-1. Furthermore, the intense hydrologic and carbon cycles are tightly coupled in the Amazon where about half of the water is recycled by evapotranspiration and the other half imported from the ocean by Northeasterly trade winds. Climate models predict a drying in the Amazon with reduced carbon uptake while observationally guided assessments indicate sustained uptake. We set out to resolve this huge discrepancy in the size and sign of the future Amazon carbon cycle by performing the first simultaneous regional-scale high-frequency measurements of atmospheric CO2, H2O, HOD, CH4, N2O, and CO at the T3 site in Manacupuru, Brazil, as part of DOE's GoAmazon 2014/15 project. Our data will be used to inform and develop DOE's Community Land Model (CLM) on the tropical carbon-water couplings at the appropriate grid scale (10-50 km). Our measurements will also validate the CO2 data from Japan's Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 satellite (launched in July, 2014). Our data addresses these science questions: 1. How does ecosystem heterogeneity and climate variability influence the rainforest carbon cycle? 2. How well do current tropical ecosystem models simulate the observed regional carbon cycle? 3. Does nitrogen deposition (from the Manaus, Brazil, plume) enhance rainforest carbon uptake?

  5. Proliferation of hydroelectric dams in the Andean Amazon and implications for Andes-Amazon connectivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Finer

    Full Text Available Due to rising energy demands and abundant untapped potential, hydropower projects are rapidly increasing in the Neotropics. This is especially true in the wet and rugged Andean Amazon, where regional governments are prioritizing new hydroelectric dams as the centerpiece of long-term energy plans. However, the current planning for hydropower lacks adequate regional and basin-scale assessment of potential ecological impacts. This lack of strategic planning is particularly problematic given the intimate link between the Andes and Amazonian flood plain, together one of the most species rich zones on Earth. We examined the potential ecological impacts, in terms of river connectivity and forest loss, of the planned proliferation of hydroelectric dams across all Andean tributaries of the Amazon River. Considering data on the full portfolios of existing and planned dams, along with data on roads and transmission line systems, we developed a new conceptual framework to estimate the relative impacts of all planned dams. There are plans for 151 new dams greater than 2 MW over the next 20 years, more than a 300% increase. These dams would include five of the six major Andean tributaries of the Amazon. Our ecological impact analysis classified 47% of the potential new dams as high impact and just 19% as low impact. Sixty percent of the dams would cause the first major break in connectivity between protected Andean headwaters and the lowland Amazon. More than 80% would drive deforestation due to new roads, transmission lines, or inundation. We conclude with a discussion of three major policy implications of these findings. 1 There is a critical need for further strategic regional and basin scale evaluation of dams. 2 There is an urgent need for a strategic plan to maintain Andes-Amazon connectivity. 3 Reconsideration of hydropower as a low-impact energy source in the Neotropics.

  6. Solar energy scenarios in Brazil. Part two: Photovoltaics applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, F.R.; Ruether, R.; Pereira, E.B.; Abreu, S.L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses some energy scenarios for photovoltaic applications in Brazil engendered by using SWERA database in order to demonstrate its potential for feasibility analysis and application in the energy planning for electricity generation. It discusses two major different markets: hybrid PV-Diesel installations in mini-grids of the off-grid Brazilian electricity system in the Amazon region, and grid-connected PV in urban areas of the interconnected Brazilian electricity system. The potential for using PV is huge, and can be estimated in tens to hundreds of MWp in the Amazon region alone, even if only a fraction of the existing Diesel-fired plants with a total installed capacity of over 620 MVA would fit to run in an optimum Diesel/PV mix. Most of the major cities in Brazil present greater electricity demand in summertime with the demand peak happening in the daytime period. This energy profile match the actual solar resource assessment provided by SWERA Data Archive, enabling grid-connected PV systems to provide an important contribution to the utility's capacity

  7. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  8. Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, W. K.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Pizzitutti, F.; Berky, A.; Feingold, B.; Mena, C.; Janko, M.

    2017-12-01

    Reported cases of malaria in the western Amazon regions of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador have more than tripled since 2011. Responding to this epidemic has been challenging given large-scale environmental impacts and demographic changes combined with changing financial and political priorities. In Peru alone, malaria cases increased 5-fold since 2011. Reasons include changes in the Global Malaria Fund, massive flooding in 2012, the "mega" El Nino in 2016, and continued natural resource extraction via logging and mining. These challenges prompted the recent creation of the Malaria Cero program in 2017 with the goal to eradicate malaria by 2021. To assist in malaria eradiation, a team of investigators supported by NASA have been developing an Early Warning System for Malaria. The system leverages demographic, epidemiological, meteorological and land use/cover data to develop a four-component system that will improve detection of malaria across the western Amazon Basin. System components include a land data assimilation system (LDAS) to estimate past and future hydrological states and flux, a seasonal human population model to estimate population at risk and spatial connectivity to high risk transmission areas, a sub-regional statistical model to identify when and where observed malaria cases have exceeded those expected, and an Agent Based Model (ABM) to integrate human, environmental, and entomological transmission dynamics with potential strategies for control. Data include: daily case detection reports between 2000 and 2017 from all health posts in the region of Loreto in the northern Peruvian Amazon; LDAS outputs (precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation) at a 1km and weekly scale; satellite-derived estimates of land cover; and human population size from census and health data. This presentation will provide an overview of components, focusing on how the system identifies an outbreak and plans for technology transfer.

  9. Isoprene photochemistry over the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yingjun; Brito, Joel; Dorris, Matthew R.; Rivera-Rios, Jean C.; Seco, Roger; Bates, Kelvin H.; Artaxo, Paulo; Duvoisin, Sergio; Keutsch, Frank N.; Kim, Saewung; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Manzi, Antonio O.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Springston, Stephen R.; Watson, Thomas B.; McKinney, Karena A.

    2016-01-01

    Isoprene photooxidation is a major driver of atmospheric chemistry over forested regions. Isoprene reacts with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and molecular oxygen to produce isoprene peroxy radicals (ISOPOO). These radicals can react with hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) to dominantly produce hydroxyhydroperoxides (ISOPOOH). They can also react with nitric oxide (NO) to largely produce methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR). Unimolecular isomerization and bimolecular reactions with organic peroxy radicals are also possible. There is uncertainty about the relative importance of each of these pathways in the atmosphere and possible changes because of anthropogenic pollution. Herein, measurements of ISOPOOH and MVK + MACR concentrations are reported over the central region of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The research site, downwind of an urban region, intercepted both background and polluted air masses during the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. Under background conditions, the confidence interval for the ratio of the ISOPOOH concentration to that of MVK + MACR spanned 0.4–0.6. This result implies a ratio of the reaction rate of ISOPOO with HO2 to that with NO of approximately unity. A value of unity is significantly smaller than simulated at present by global chemical transport models for this important, nominally low-NO, forested region of Earth. Under polluted conditions, when the concentrations of reactive nitrogen compounds were high (>1 ppb), ISOPOOH concentrations dropped below the instrumental detection limit (<60 ppt). This abrupt shift in isoprene photooxidation, sparked by human activities, speaks to ongoing and possible future changes in the photochemistry active over the Amazon rainforest. PMID:27185928

  10. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  11. [The Amazon Sanitation Plan (1940-1942)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Rômulo de Paula; Hochman, Gilberto

    2007-12-01

    The article addresses the Amazon Sanitation Plan and the political context in which it was formulated between 1940 and 1941. It examines the role of Getúlio Vargas, the activities of the plan's main protagonists (such as Evandro Chagas, João de Barros Barreto, and Valério Konder), its key proposals, and its demise as of 1942 upon creation of the Special Public Health Service (Sesp), which grew out of cooperation agreements between Brazil and the US following both nations' involvement in World War II. A reproduction of the Plan as published in the Arquivos de Higiene in 1941 is included.

  12. Early warning signals of simulated Amazon dieback

    OpenAIRE

    Boulton, Chris; Good, Peter; Lenton, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Dieback of the Amazon rainforest has been considered a potential tipping point in the Earth system due to the belief that there is more than one stable attractor in its dynamics and for future projections within global climate models (GCMs), in some cases a huge amount of forest is lost abruptly. The rainforest is a huge carbon sink, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle and so if dieback is going to happen over a short period of time, it is important to have some early warning t...

  13. The Amazon reveals its secrets--partly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, Julio L.

    2000-01-01

    The role of the tropics in global climate change during glacial cycles is hotly debated in paleoclimate cycles today. Records from South America have not provided a clear picture of tropical climate change. In his Perspective, Betancourt highlights the study by Maslin and Burns, who have deduced the outflow of the Amazon over the past 14,000 years. This may serve as a proxy that integrates hydrology over the entire South American tropics, although the record must be interpreted cautiously because factors other than rainfall may contribute to the variability in outflow.

  14. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  15. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  16. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  17. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  18. Carbon uptake by mature Amazon forests has mitigated Amazon nations' carbon emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W

    2017-12-01

    Several independent lines of evidence suggest that Amazon forests have provided a significant carbon sink service, and also that the Amazon carbon sink in intact, mature forests may now be threatened as a result of different processes. There has however been no work done to quantify non-land-use-change forest carbon fluxes on a national basis within Amazonia, or to place these national fluxes and their possible changes in the context of the major anthropogenic carbon fluxes in the region. Here we present a first attempt to interpret results from ground-based monitoring of mature forest carbon fluxes in a biogeographically, politically, and temporally differentiated way. Specifically, using results from a large long-term network of forest plots, we estimate the Amazon biomass carbon balance over the last three decades for the different regions and nine nations of Amazonia, and evaluate the magnitude and trajectory of these differentiated balances in relation to major national anthropogenic carbon emissions. The sink of carbon into mature forests has been remarkably geographically ubiquitous across Amazonia, being substantial and persistent in each of the five biogeographic regions within Amazonia. Between 1980 and 2010, it has more than mitigated the fossil fuel emissions of every single national economy, except that of Venezuela. For most nations (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname) the sink has probably additionally mitigated all anthropogenic carbon emissions due to Amazon deforestation and other land use change. While the sink has weakened in some regions since 2000, our analysis suggests that Amazon nations which are able to conserve large areas of natural and semi-natural landscape still contribute globally-significant carbon sequestration. Mature forests across all of Amazonia have contributed significantly to mitigating climate change for decades. Yet Amazon nations have not directly benefited from providing this global scale

  19. Patents on periphery of the Amazon rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moura, Emanoel G; Araújo, José R G; Monroe, Paulo H M; de O Nascimento, Ivaneide; Aguiar, Alana C F

    2009-06-01

    In the humid tropics, on the edges of the Amazon forest, the technological challenges to establishing and maintaining productive and sustainable agricultural systems have yet to be overcome. The groups involved in agriculture in the north of Brazil still engage in the practice of slash and burn in order to prepare and fertilize the soil. This produces negative effects for the local and global environment, without the counter-effect of providing social benefits to rural communities. Whether this process continues is of fundamental importance to many countries because it means that slash and burn agriculture is advancing on the Amazon rainforest, with a negative effect on every dimension of national policy. Beyond social political problems the biggest challenge for researchers in the field of tropical agriculture is to offer technological alternatives that can sustain agriculture in soils derived from sedimentary rocks that have been subjected to a high degree of weathering. In this article patented information is also discussed. Experiments undertaken in this region recommend taking advantage of the rapid growth of plants in the tropics. We aimed at proposing a suitable alternative system for a sustainable soil management in the particular conditions of humid tropics, named as "no-till in alley cropping using tree leguminous mulch." This system offers the advantages of: bringing together, in the same space and at the same time, the processes of cultivation and the regeneration of soil fertility.

  20. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Oliver L; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Lewis, Simon L; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, Jon; López-González, Gabriela; Malhi, Yadvinder; Monteagudo, Abel; Peacock, Julie; Quesada, Carlos A; van der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, Samuel; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo; Baker, Tim R; Bánki, Olaf; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Brando, Paulo; Chave, Jerome; de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves; Cardozo, Nallaret Dávila; Czimczik, Claudia I; Feldpausch, Ted R; Freitas, Maria Aparecida; Gloor, Emanuel; Higuchi, Niro; Jiménez, Eliana; Lloyd, Gareth; Meir, Patrick; Mendoza, Casimiro; Morel, Alexandra; Neill, David A; Nepstad, Daniel; Patiño, Sandra; Peñuela, Maria Cristina; Prieto, Adriana; Ramírez, Fredy; Schwarz, Michael; Silva, Javier; Silveira, Marcos; Thomas, Anne Sota; Steege, Hans Ter; Stropp, Juliana; Vásquez, Rodolfo; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Alvarez Dávila, Esteban; Andelman, Sandy; Andrade, Ana; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Erwin, Terry; Di Fiore, Anthony; Honorio C, Eurídice; Keeling, Helen; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, William F; Peña Cruz, Antonio; Pitman, Nigel C A; Núñez Vargas, Percy; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustín; Salamão, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Terborgh, John; Torres-Lezama, Armando

    2009-03-06

    Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

  1. Protecting the Amazon with protected areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Robert; Moore, Nathan J.; Arima, Eugenio; Perz, Stephen; Simmons, Cynthia; Caldas, Marcellus; Vergara, Dante; Bohrer, Claudio

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses climate-tipping points in the Amazon Basin resulting from deforestation. It applies a regional climate model to assess whether the system of protected areas in Brazil is able to avoid such tipping points, with massive conversion to semiarid vegetation, particularly along the south and southeastern margins of the basin. The regional climate model produces spatially distributed annual rainfall under a variety of external forcing conditions, assuming that all land outside protected areas is deforested. It translates these results into dry season impacts on resident ecosystems and shows that Amazonian dry ecosystems in the southern and southeastern basin do not desiccate appreciably and that extensive areas experience an increase in precipitation. Nor do the moist forests dry out to an excessive amount. Evidently, Brazilian environmental policy has created a sustainable core of protected areas in the Amazon that buffers against potential climate-tipping points and protects the drier ecosystems of the basin. Thus, all efforts should be made to manage them effectively. PMID:19549819

  2. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  4. Evolution of Land Use in the Brazilian Amazon: From Frontier Expansion to Market Chain Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana S. Soler

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural census data and fieldwork observations are used to analyze changes in land cover/use intensity across Rondônia and Mato Grosso states along the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. Results show that the development of land use is strongly related to land distribution structure. While large farms have increased their share of annual and perennial crops, small and medium size farms have strongly contributed to the development of beef and milk market chains in both Rondônia and Mato Grosso. Land use intensification has occurred in the form of increased use of machinery, labor in agriculture and stocking rates of cattle herds. Regional and national demands have improved infrastructure and productivity. The data presented show that the distinct pathways of land use development are related to accessibility to markets and processing industry as well as to the agricultural colonization history of the region. The data analyzed do not provide any indication of frontier stagnation, i.e., the slowdown of agricultural expansion, in the Brazilian Amazon. Instead of frontier stagnation, the data analyzed indicate that intensification processes in consolidated areas as well as recent agricultural expansion into forest areas are able to explain the cycle of expansion and retraction of the agricultural frontier into the Amazon region. The evolution of land use is useful for scenario analysis of both land cover change and land use intensification and provides insights into the role of market development and policies on land use.

  5. The importance of forest structure for carbon fluxes of the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Rammig, Anja; Fischer, Rico; Taubert, Franziska; Huth, Andreas

    2018-05-01

    Precise descriptions of forest productivity, biomass, and structure are essential for understanding ecosystem responses to climatic and anthropogenic changes. However, relations between these components are complex, in particular for tropical forests. We developed an approach to simulate carbon dynamics in the Amazon rainforest including around 410 billion individual trees within 7.8 million km2. We integrated canopy height observations from space-borne LIDAR in order to quantify spatial variations in forest state and structure reflecting small-scale to large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Under current conditions, we identified the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink, gaining 0.56 GtC per year. This carbon sink is driven by an estimated mean gross primary productivity (GPP) of 25.1 tC ha‑1 a‑1, and a mean woody aboveground net primary productivity (wANPP) of 4.2 tC ha‑1 a‑1. We found that successional states play an important role for the relations between productivity and biomass. Forests in early to intermediate successional states are the most productive, and woody above-ground carbon use efficiencies are non-linear. Simulated values can be compared to observed carbon fluxes at various spatial resolutions (>40 m). Notably, we found that our GPP corresponds to the values derived from MODIS. For NPP, spatial differences can be observed due to the consideration of forest successional states in our approach. We conclude that forest structure has a substantial impact on productivity and biomass. It is an essential factor that should be taken into account when estimating current carbon budgets or analyzing climate change scenarios for the Amazon rainforest.

  6. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  7. Diversity of palm uses in the western Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paniagua Zambrana, N.Y.; Byg, A.; Svenning, J.-C.

    2007-01-01

    Abstract  We used palm knowledge to understand the interaction between people and the rainforests and the factors that influence this dynamic process. We interviewed 278 informants in 12 villages in the Pastaza and Madidi areas of the western Amazon basin. Together they used 38 different palm......, the great variation in the knowledge they possess, and the fact that the differences between villages is so great, are important elements to consider when developing management plans for the sustainable use of the rainforest resources in the western Amazon. Keywords  Local knowledge - Palms - Western Amazon...

  8. Amazon River investigations, reconnaissance measurements of July 1963

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltman, Roy Edwin; Sternberg, H. O'R.; Ames, F.C.; Davis, L.C.

    1964-01-01

    The first measurements of the flow of the Amazon River were made in July 1963 as a joint project of the University of Brazil, the Brazilian Navy, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The discharge of the Amazon River at Obidos was 7,640,000 cfs at an annual flood stage somewhat lower than the average. For comparison the maximum known discharge of the Mississippi River at Vicksburg is about 2,300,000 cfs. Dissolved-solids concentrations and sediment loads of the Amazon River and of several major tributaries were found to be low.

  9. Radium and barium in the Amazon River system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, W.S.; Edmond, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    Data for 226 Ra and 228 Ra in the Amazon River system show that the activity of each radium isotope is strongly correlated with barium concentrations. Two trends are apparent, one for rivers which drain shield areas and another for all other rivers. These data suggest that there has been extensive fractionation of U, Th, and Ba during weathering in the Amazon basin. The 226 Ra data fit a flux model for the major ions indicating that 226 Ra behaves conservatively along the main channel of the Amazon River

  10. Trace elements distribution in the Amazon floodplain soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandes, E.A.N.; Ferraz, E.S.B.; Oliveira, H.

    1994-01-01

    Neutron activation analysis was performed on aluvial soil samples from several sites on the foodplains of the Amazon River and its major tributaries for trace elements determination. The spatial and temporal variations of chemical composition of floodland sediments in the Amazon basin are discussed. No significant difference was found in trace elemental distribution in the floodland soils along the Amazon main channel, even after the source material has been progressively diluted with that from lowland draining tributaries. It was also seen that the average chemical composition of floodplain soils compares well with that of the suspended sedimets. (author) 12 refs.; 5 figs.; 2 tabs

  11. Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Clark, James

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burden. Yet, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increases malaria incidence, which implies the opposite relationship between forest conservation and malaria. We compare the effect of these environmental factors on malaria and explore its implications. Using a large malaria dataset (~1,300,000 positive malaria tests collected over ~4.5 million km(2)), satellite imagery, permutation tests, and hierarchical Bayesian regressions, we show that greater forest cover (as a proxy for proximity to forest fringes) tends to be associated with higher malaria incidence, and that forest cover effect was 25 times greater than the land clearing effect, the often cited culprit of malaria in the region. These findings have important implications for land use/land cover (LULC) policies in the region. We find that cities close to protected areas (PA's) tend to have higher malaria incidence than cities far from PA's. Using future LULC scenarios, we show that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might result in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban health posts. Our results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emissions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increased malaria morbidity, and that conservation initiatives should consider adopting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate science fields, government ministries, and global initiatives (e.g., Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation; Millenium Development Goals; Roll Back Malaria; and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), will be required to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these

  12. Maximizing Amazonia's Ecosystem Services: Juggling the potential for carbon storage, agricultural yield and biodiversity in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, C. S.; Foley, J. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Polasky, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon is not only an exceptionally biodiverse and carbon-rich tract of tropical forest, it is also a case study in land use change. Over the next forty years it will continue to experience pressure from an urbanizing and increasingly affluent populace: under a business-as-usual scenario, global cropland, pasture and biofuels systems will carry on expanding, while the Amazon's carbon storage potential will likely become another viable revenue source under REDD+. Balancing those competing land use pressures ought also take into account Amazonia's high - but heterogeneous - biodiversity. Knowing where Amazonia has opportunities to make efficient or optimal trade offs between carbon storage, agricultural production and biodiversity can allow policymakers to direct or influence LUC drivers. This analysis uses a spatially-explicit model that takes climate and management into account to quantify the potential agricultural yield of both the Amazon's most important agricultural commodities - sugar, soy and maize - as well as several that are going to come into increasing prominence, including palm oil. In addition, it maps the potential for carbon to be stored in forest biomass and relative species richness across Amazonia. We then compare carbon storage, agricultural yield and species richness and identify areas where efficient trade offs occur between food, carbon, and biodiversity - three critical ecosystem goods and services provided by the world's largest tropical forest.

  13. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  14. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  15. Potential Impact of Planned Andean Dams on the Amazon Fluvial Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, B.; Melack, J. M.; Dunne, T.; Barthem, R. B.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Sorribas, M.; Silva, U. L., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    Increased energy demand has led to plans for building 151 new dams in the western Amazon, mostly in the Andes Region. Historical data and simulation scenarios were used to explore potential impacts above and below six of the largest storage dams planned for the region. These impacts included: 1) reduction in the downstream sediment supply 2) reduction in the downstream nutrient supply, 3) attenuation of the downstream flood pulse and 4) increased greenhouse gas emissions. Together, the six dams are expected to reduce the total downstream supply of sediments, total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) from the Andes by 66, 65 and 49%, respectively. These large reductions in sediment and nutrient supplies will have major impacts on channel geomorphology, floodplain fertility and aquatic productivity. These impacts are expected to be greatest close to the dams but could also extend to the central Amazon floodplain and delta regions. The attenuation of the downstream flood pulse following impoundment is expected to alter the survival, phenology and growth patterns of floodplain vegetation and result in lower fish yields in the downstream regions closest to the dams. Greenhouse gas emissions above and below the dams are expected to increase, contributing to significantly higher regional and global emissions for dams. Gas fired power plants are suggested as a cleaner, less impactful alternative to meeting regional energy demands.

  16. Use and management of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon: cultural particularities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Landínez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the main cultural particularities: worldviews and ways of knowing that are associated with the use and management practices of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon. The theoretical cutting proposal contrasts, cultural level, the forms of appropriation of forest resources in indigenous and urban contexts in light of the importance that such activity involves the establishment of management strategies biodiversity in Colombia. Thus, offers an integrated perspective that will address environmental situations considering conflicting factors not only biological but cultural in various scenarios, to give substance to the decisions made and provide a reasonable treatment that enables the implementation of environmental regulatory mechanisms in strategic special biological areas as the Colombian Amazon. Finally, reflect on the importance of facilitating the functional analysis of the connections and interrelationships of ecosystem components, including human communities, to sketch involving both biological and social guidelines for sustainable use of biodiversity.

  17. Potential groundwater contribution to Amazon evapotranspiration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fan

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate and land ecosystem models simulate a dry-season vegetation stress in the Amazon forest, but observations do not support these results, indicating adequate water supply. Proposed mechanisms include larger soil water store and deeper roots in nature and the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution, both absent in the models. Here we provide a first-order assessment of the potential importance of the upward soil water flux from the groundwater driven by capillarity. We present a map of equilibrium water table depth from available observations and a groundwater model simulation constrained by these observations. We then present a map of maximum capillary flux these water table depths, combined with the fine-textured soils in the Amazon, can potentially support. The maps show that the water table beneath the Amazon can be shallow in lowlands and river valleys (<5 m in 36% and <10 m in 60% of Amazonia. These water table depths can potentially accommodate a maximum capillary flux of 2.1 mm day−1 to the land surface averaged over Amazonia, but varies from 0.6 to 3.7 mm day−1 across nine study sites.

    We note that the results presented here are based on limited observations and simple equilibrium model calculations, and as such, have important limitations and must be interpreted accordingly. The potential capillary fluxes are not indicative of their contribution to the actual evapotranspiration, and they are only an assessment of the possible rate at which this flux can occur, to illustrate the power of soil capillary force acting on a shallow water table in fine textured soils. They may over-estimate the actual flux where the surface soils remain moist. Their contribution to the actual evapotranspiration can only be assessed through fully coupled model simulation of the dynamic feedbacks between soil water and groundwater with sub-daily climate forcing. The equilibrium water table

  18. Helping the Amazon's Caboclos riverine communities cope with ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2013-11-15

    Nov 15, 2013 ... Tides expand the Amazon's delta's lacework of rivers and streams twice a day, ... last longer, causing more environmental damage and threatening their communities. ... Managing flood risk through collaborative governance.

  19. Lipid Panel Reference Intervals for Amazon Parrots (Amazona species).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravich, Michelle; Cray, Carolyn; Hess, Laurie; Arheart, Kristopher L

    2014-09-01

    The lipoprotein panel is a useful diagnostic tool that allows clinicians to evaluate blood lipoprotein fractions. It is a standard diagnostic test in human medicine but is poorly understood in avian medicine. Amazon parrots (Amazona species) are popular pets that frequently lead a sedentary lifestyle and are customarily fed high-fat diets. Similar to people with comparable diets and lifestyles, Amazon parrots are prone to obesity and atherosclerosis. In human medicine, these conditions are typically correlated with abnormalities in the lipoprotein panel. To establish reference intervals for the lipoprotein panel in Amazon parrots, plasma samples from 31 captive Amazon parrots were analyzed for concentrations of cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL). The data were also grouped according to sex, diet, body condition score, and age. Aside from HDL levels, which were significantly different between male and female parrots, no intergroup differences were found for any of the lipoprotein fractions.

  20. LBA-ECO LC-07 JERS-1 SAR Wetlands Masks and Land Cover, Amazon Basin: 1995-1996

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides three Amazon Basin wetland image products: (1) a Central Amazon Wetlands Mask, (2) a Central Amazon Wetlands Vegetative-hydrologic...

  1. LBA-ECO LC-07 JERS-1 SAR Wetlands Masks and Land Cover, Amazon Basin: 1995-1996

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides three Amazon Basin wetland image products: (1) a Central Amazon Wetlands Mask, (2) a Central Amazon Wetlands Vegetative-hydrologic Land Cover...

  2. Four years of ozone measurements in the Central Amazon - Absorption mechanisms and reactions within the rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Stefan; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Tsokankunku, Anywhere; Saturno, Jorge; Souza, Rodrigo; Trebs, Ivonne; Sörgel, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The ATTO (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory) site (02°08'38.8''S, 58°59'59.5''W) is located in the remote Amazon rainforest, allowing atmospheric and forest studies away from nearby anthropogenic emission sources. Starting with continuous measurements of vertical mixing ratio profiles of H2O, CO2 and O3 in April 2012 at 8 heights between 0.05 m and 80 m above ground, the longest continuous record of near surface O3 in the Amazon rainforest was established. Black carbon (BC), CO and micrometeorological measurements are available for the same period. During intensive campaigns, NOx was measured as well using the same profile system, and therefore several month of parallel NOx measurements are available. This data allows the analyses of diverse patterns regarding emission, deposition, turbulence and chemical reactions of trace gases within and above the rainforest for several rainy and dry seasons. The remote Amazon generally serves as a sink for O3 which is mainly deposited to the canopy. The deposition depends to a large extent on the aperture of the leaf stomata, which is correlated to temperature, humidity, solar radiation and water availability. Comparing these parameters with the in-canopy and above canopy gradients of O3, considering the turbulent conditions and further chemical reactions of O3 with NOx and VOC molecules, we estimated the role of the forest for the removal of ozone from the atmosphere under different meteorological conditions. We applied the Multi-Layer Canopy Chemical Exchange Model - MLC-CHEM to support the analysis of the observed profiles of NOx and O3. Under pristine conditions, the forest soil is the major source for NO emissions, which are directly reacting with O3 molecules, affecting the O3 gradient within the sub-canopy. We have analyzed differences between model and measurements in sub-canopy NO and O3 mixing ratios by the application of different NO soil emission scenarios and by the performance of several sensitivity analyses to

  3. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  4. Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Sonter, Laura J.; Herrera, Diego; Barrett, Damian J.; Galford, Gillian L.; Moran, Chris J.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2017-01-01

    Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil’s Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boun...

  5. Estuarine beaches of the Amazon coast: environmental and recreational characterization

    OpenAIRE

    de Sousa, Rosigleyse C.; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; Jiménez Quintana, José Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The Amazon coast is rich in natural resources, with highly valued natural landscapes and ecological systems. These environments include estuarine beaches, which are important areas for recreational activities. The present study provides an environmental and recreational diagnosis of three of these estuarine beaches on the Amazon coast (Colares, Maruda, and Murubira). The study was conducted in July, 2012, 2013 and 2015. An set of variables was assessed: (i) physical variables (hydrodynamics),...

  6. Trace elements distribution in bottom sediments from Amazon River estuary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lara, L.B.L.S.; Nadai Fernandes, E. de; Oliveira, H. de; Bacchi, M.A.

    1994-01-01

    The Amazon River discharges into a dynamic marine environment where there have been many interactive processes affecting dissolved and particulate solids, either those settling on the shelf or reaching the ocean. Trace elemental concentration, especially of the rare earth elements, have been determined by neutron activation analysis in sixty bottom sediment samples of the Amazon River estuary, providing information for the spatial and temporal variation study of those elements. (author). 16 refs, 6 figs, 3 tabs

  7. The Legal Protection of Ecoturism on Amazon State

    OpenAIRE

    Bárbara Dias Cabral

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the legislation on ecotourism in the Amazon, which stands as polo Brazilian and global ecotourism. An answer search the following questioning: analyzing the social, environmental and cultural aspects, we can say that the Brazilian legal system and legislation promote Amazon Ecotourism? The methodology is deductive, with doctrinal, legislative and interdisciplinary research, as it quotes the thought of some tourismologists, agronomists and environmentalists. There in the ...

  8. Is the Amazon Rainforest Drying Out?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saatchi, S.; Xu, L.; Bloom, A. A.; Konings, A. G.; Yang, Y.; Aragão, L. E.; Fu, R.; Worden, J. R.; Schimel, D.

    2017-12-01

    Hotter droughts are the emerging characteristics of recent climate conditions, causing increased aridity over many land areas, broad-scale die-off, and pervasive mortality in forest ecosystems globally. Using a suite of eco-hydrological measurements from satellite observations combined with ecosystem data assimilation model, we show the Amazon forests, under recent changes in climate, have been consistently losing water in vegetation from increased leaf temperature. These long-term changes have caused a decline in evapotranspiration with consequences of changing the seasonality of precipitation by increasing the dry season length and delaying the wet season arrival. Three severe droughts (2005, 2010, 2015), occurring on the background of this long-term warming have an unprecedented legacy resulting in longer delays in recharging of water storage and recovery of forests after drought induced disturbances (4-5 years after each drought). The paper discusses the evidences of eco-hydrological changes pointing to the drying of forests of Amazonia.

  9. Hydrological Predictability for the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towner, Jamie; Stephens, Elizabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Bazo, Juan; Coughlan, Erin; Zsoter, Ervin

    2017-04-01

    Population growth in the Peruvian Amazon has prompted the expansion of livelihoods further into the floodplain and thus increasing vulnerability to the annual rise and fall of the river. This growth has coincided with a period of increasing hydrological extremes with more frequent severe flood events. The anticipation and forecasting of these events is crucial for mitigating vulnerability. Forecast-based Financing (FbF) an initiative of the German Red Cross implements risk reducing actions based on threshold exceedance within hydrometeorological forecasts using the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). However, the lead times required to complete certain actions can be long (e.g. several weeks to months ahead to purchase materials and reinforce houses) and are beyond the current capabilities of GloFAS. Therefore, further calibration of the model is required in addition to understanding the climatic drivers and associated hydrological response for specific flood events, such as those observed in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This review sets out to determine the current capabilities of the GloFAS model while exploring the limits of predictability for the Amazon basin. More specifically, how the temporal patterns of flow within the main coinciding tributaries correspond to the overall Amazonian flood wave under various climatic and meteorological influences. Linking the source areas of flow to predictability within the seasonal forecasting system will develop the ability to expand the limit of predictability of the flood wave. This presentation will focus on the Iquitos region of Peru, while providing an overview of the new techniques and current challenges faced within seasonal flood prediction.

  10. Fragmentation of Andes-to-Amazon connectivity by hydropower dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth P; Jenkins, Clinton N; Heilpern, Sebastian; Maldonado-Ocampo, Javier A; Carvajal-Vallejos, Fernando M; Encalada, Andrea C; Rivadeneira, Juan Francisco; Hidalgo, Max; Cañas, Carlos M; Ortega, Hernan; Salcedo, Norma; Maldonado, Mabel; Tedesco, Pablo A

    2018-01-01

    Andes-to-Amazon river connectivity controls numerous natural and human systems in the greater Amazon. However, it is being rapidly altered by a wave of new hydropower development, the impacts of which have been previously underestimated. We document 142 dams existing or under construction and 160 proposed dams for rivers draining the Andean headwaters of the Amazon. Existing dams have fragmented the tributary networks of six of eight major Andean Amazon river basins. Proposed dams could result in significant losses in river connectivity in river mainstems of five of eight major systems-the Napo, Marañón, Ucayali, Beni, and Mamoré. With a newly reported 671 freshwater fish species inhabiting the Andean headwaters of the Amazon (>500 m), dams threaten previously unrecognized biodiversity, particularly among endemic and migratory species. Because Andean rivers contribute most of the sediment in the mainstem Amazon, losses in river connectivity translate to drastic alteration of river channel and floodplain geomorphology and associated ecosystem services.

  11. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  12. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  13. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  14. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  15. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  16. Socio-ecological costs of Amazon nut and timber production at community household forests in the Bolivian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soriano, Marlene; Mohren, Frits; Ascarrunz, Nataly; Dressler, Wolfram; Peña-Claros, Marielos

    2017-01-01

    The Bolivian Amazon holds a complex configuration of people and forested landscapes in which communities hold secure tenure rights over a rich ecosystem offering a range of livelihood income opportunities. A large share of this income is derived from Amazon nut (Bertholletia excelsa). Many communities also have long-standing experience with community timber management plans. However, livelihood needs and desires for better living conditions may continue to place these resources under considerable stress as income needs and opportunities intensify and diversify. We aim to identify the socioeconomic and biophysical factors determining the income from forests, husbandry, off-farm and two keystone forest products (i.e., Amazon nut and timber) in the Bolivian Amazon region. We used structural equation modelling tools to account for the complex inter-relationships between socioeconomic and biophysical factors in predicting each source of income. The potential exists to increase incomes from existing livelihood activities in ways that reduce dependency upon forest resources. For example, changes in off-farm income sources can act to increase or decrease forest incomes. Market accessibility, social, financial, and natural and physical assets determined the amount of income community households could derive from Amazon nut and timber. Factors related to community households' local ecological knowledge, such as the number of non-timber forest products harvested and the number of management practices applied to enhance Amazon nut production, defined the amount of income these households could derive from Amazon nut and timber, respectively. The (inter) relationships found among socioeconomic and biophysical factors over income shed light on ways to improve forest-dependent livelihoods in the Bolivian Amazon. We believe that our analysis could be applicable to other contexts throughout the tropics as well.

  17. Regional Eco-hydrologic Sensitivity to Projected Amazonian Land Use Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, R. G.; Longo, M.; Zhang, K.; Levine, N. M.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Bras, R. L.

    2011-12-01

    Given business as usual land-use practices, it is estimated that by 2050 roughly half of the Amazon's pre-anthropogenic closed-canopy forest stands would remain. Of this, eight of the Amazon's twelve major hydrologic basins would lose more than half of their forest cover to deforestation. With the availability of these land-use projections, we may start to question the associated response of the region's hydrologic climate to significant land-cover change. Here the Ecosystem-Demography Model 2 (EDM2, a dynamic and spatially distributed terrestrial model of plant structure and composition, succession, disturbance and thermodynamic transfer) is coupled with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model (BRAMS, a three-dimensional limited area model of the atmospheric fluid momentum equations and physics parameterizations for closing the system of equations at the lower boundary, convection, radiative transfer, microphysics, etc). This experiment conducts decadal simulations, framed with high-reliability lateral boundary conditions of reanalysis atmospheric data (ERA-40 interim) and variable impact of land-use scenarios (SimAmazonia). This is done by initializing the regional ecosystem structure with both aggressive and conservationist deforestation scenarios, and also by differentially allowing and not-allowing dynamic vegetation processes. While the lateral boundaries of the simulation will not reflect the future climate in the region, reanalysis data has provided improved realism as compared to results derived from GCM boundary data. Therefore, the ecosystem response (forest composition and structure) and the time-space patterns of hydrologic information (soil moisture, rainfall, evapotranspiration) are objectively compared in the context of a sensitivity experiment, as opposed to a forecast. The following questions are addressed. How do aggressive and conservative scenarios of Amazonian deforestation effect the regional patterning of hydrologic information in the

  18. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  19. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  20. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  1. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  2. 77 FR 14852 - Advanced Growing Systems, Inc., Advantage Capital Development Corp., Amazon Biotech, Inc...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-13

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] Advanced Growing Systems, Inc., Advantage Capital Development Corp., Amazon Biotech, Inc., Andover Holdings, Inc. a/k/a Andover Energy Holdings, Inc... securities of Amazon [[Page 14853

  3. Granular cell tumor in an endangered Puerto Rican Amazon parrot (Amazon vittata)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, C.F.; Latimer, K.S.; Goldade, S.L.; Rivera, A.; Dein, F.J.

    1999-01-01

    A 3 cm diameter mass from the metacarpus of a Puerto Rican Amazon parrot was diagnosed as a granular cell tumour based on light microscopy. The cytoplasmic granules were periodic-acid Schiff positive and diastase resistant. Ultrastructural characteristics of the cells included convoluted nuclei and the presence of numerous cytoplasmic tertiary lysosomes. This is only the second granular cell tumour reported in a bird. We speculate that most granular cell tumours are derived from cells that are engaged in some type of cellular degradative process, creating a similar morphologic appearance, but lacking a uniform histogenesis.

  4. Regional nitrous oxide flux in Amazon basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felippe, Monica Tais Siqueira D'Amelio

    2010-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Globally, the main sources of N 2 O are nitrification and denitrification in soils. About two thirds of the soil emissions occur in the tropics and approximately 20% originate in wet rain forest ecosystems, like the Amazon forest. The work presented here involves aircraft vertical profiles of N 2 O from the surface to 4 km over two sites in the Eastern and Central Amazon: Tapajos National Forest (2000-2009) and Cuieiras Biologic Reserve (2004-2007), and the estimation of N 2 O fluxes for regions upwind of these sites using two methods: Column Integration Technique and Inversion Model - FLEXPART. To our knowledge, these regional scale N 2 O measurements in Amazonia are unique and represent a new approach to looking regional scale emissions. For the both methods, the fluxes upwind of Cuieiras Biologic Reserve exhibited little seasonality, and the annual mean was 1.9 ±1.6 mgN 2 Om -2 day -1 for the Column Integration Technique and 2.3±0.9 mgN 2 Om -2 day -1 for Inversion Model - FLEXPART. For fluxes upwind of Tapajos Nacional Forest, the Inversion Model - FLEXPART presented about half (0.9±1.7 mgN 2 Om -2 day -1 ) of the Column Integration Technique (2.0±1.1 mgN 2 Om -2 day -1 ) for the same period (2004-2008). One reason could be because the inversion model does not consider anthropic activities, once it had a good representation for less impacted area. Both regions presented similar emission during wet season. By Column Integration Technique, fluxes upwind Tapajos Nacional Forest were similar for dry and wet seasons. The dry season N 2 O fluxes exhibit significant correlations with CO fluxes, indicating a larger than expected source of N 2 O from biomass burning. The average CO:N 2 O ratio for all 38 profiles sampled during the dry season was 82±69 mol CO:molN 2 O and suggests a larger biomass burning contribution to the global N 2 O budget than previously reported. (author)

  5. Programming Amazon Web Services S3, EC2, SQS, FPS, and SimpleDB

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, James

    2009-01-01

    With this book, you'll learn how companies can take advantage of Amazon Web Services (AWS) to rent" computing power, data storage and bandwidth on Amazon's vast network infrastructure. Programming Amazon Web Services gives developers the background and technical detail they need for using Amazon's subscription-based Simple Storage Service (S3), Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), Simple Queue Service (SQS), Flexible Payments Service (FPS), and SimpleDB to build web-scale business applications. "

  6. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  7. Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Genovese, V.

    2009-01-01

    A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from

  8. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

    2015-11-01

    We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

  9. Physicochemical parameters of Amazon Melipona honey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Bicudo de Almeida-Muradian

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Stingless bees produce a honey that is different from the Apis honey in terms of composition. There aren't enough data to establish quality control parameters for this product, mainly due to lack of research results. The aim of this work is to evaluate some physicochemical parameters that can be used for the characterization and for the quality control of the Meliponinae honey. Four different samples were collected in the Amazon region of Brazil in 2004 (Melipona compressipes manaoense bee and Melipona seminigra merribae bee. Honey analyses were performed as described by the official methods. The mean results were: moisture (30.13%, pH (3.65, acidity (24.57 mEq/kg, water activity (0.75, fructose (31.91%, glucose (29.30% and sucrose (0.19%. These results reinforce the need for a specific regulation for stingless bee honey. This will only be feasible when enough data is available to establish upper and lower limits for the physicochemical parameters used for quality control.

  10. Macrodynamic of media communication in the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Fonseca de Castro

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the characteristics of media communication system in the Amazon, describing how television networks, radio stations, newspapers, and communal and popular communication act, building strategies for the social reproduction of hegemonic models or, alternatively, rehearsing counter-hegemonic processes. The analysis highlights the political economy of communication, substantiated with an approach to the phenomenon of intersubjectivity, whereby we want to understand properly the Amazonian peculiarities in the Brazilian media scene. The theoretical-methodological approach considers the role of systems and systemic action in the context of a culturalist yaw in the political economy of communication. The article identifies eight macrodynamics in the Amazonian mediatic communication: the systemical logic in the dispute for communicative capital; the geoespatial dynamics of the markets; the perception of communicative function as marketing; the local complexity of the phenomenon of 'electronic colonels'; the prevalence of the 'advertising function'; the logic of exclusion of community communication; the role of the 'Amazonian object' in gauging the communicative capital; and the regional role of religious media.

  11. Rickettsial Disease in the Peruvian Amazon Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, Claudine; Morrison, Amy C; Leguia, Mariana; Loyola, Steev; Castillo, Roger M; Galvez, Hugo A; Astete, Helvio; Flores-Mendoza, Carmen; Ampuero, Julia S; Bausch, Daniel G; Halsey, Eric S; Cespedes, Manuel; Zevallos, Karine; Jiang, Ju; Richards, Allen L

    2016-07-01

    Using a large, passive, clinic-based surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we characterized the prevalence of rickettsial infections among undifferentiated febrile cases and obtained evidence of pathogen transmission in potential domestic reservoir contacts and their ectoparasites. Blood specimens from humans and animals were assayed for spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) and typhus group rickettsiae (TGR) by ELISA and/or PCR; ectoparasites were screened by PCR. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between patient history, demographic characteristics of participants and symptoms, clinical findings and outcome of rickettsial infection. Of the 2,054 enrolled participants, almost 2% showed evidence of seroconversion or a 4-fold rise in antibody titers specific for rickettsiae between acute and convalescent blood samples. Of 190 fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) and 60 ticks (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) tested, 185 (97.4%) and 3 (5%), respectively, were positive for Rickettsia spp. Candidatus Rickettsia asemboensis was identified in 100% and 33% of the fleas and ticks tested, respectively. Collectively, our serologic data indicates that human pathogenic SFGR are present in the Peruvian Amazon and pose a significant risk of infection to individuals exposed to wild, domestic and peri-domestic animals and their ectoparasites.

  12. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  13. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  14. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  15. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  16. From where does the Amazon forest gets its water?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguez-Macho, G.; Fan, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon receives abundant annual rainfall but parts of it experience a multi-month dry season. Here we ask: what is the water source that sustains the dry-season ET? Where over the Amazon it is largely local and recent rain (hence ET shutting down in dry season), or past rain that is stored in the deep soils and the groundwater (deep roots tapping deep reservoirs sustaining ET), or is it rain that fell on higher grounds (through topography-driven lateral convergence)? Using synthesis of isotope and other tracer observations and basin-wide inverse modeling (shallow soil, deep soil, with and without groundwater, with and without dynamic rooting depth), we attempt to tease out these components. The results shed light on likely ET sources and how future global change may preferentially impact Amazon ecosystem functioning.

  17. Radium-226 in waters of the Amazon river

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirshova, M.P.; Vinogradova, A.S.; Popov, N.I.

    1987-01-01

    Analysis of the Amazon river waters for 226 Ra content is carried out. Exploration works are carried out in the framework of the soviet investigations of the Amazon river in 1983 by the Academy of Science of USSR on board a research ship ''Professor Schtokman'' with the agreement and participation of brazilian scientists. Radium determination has been carried out in reference with equilibrium radon preliminary accumulated in samples (30 y) tightly closed. The general 226 Ra concentrations observed in the Amazon waters exceed 4-6 times the values known before relating to a ''diluted'' element fraction. It happens due to the presence of the river suspended matter in the water analysed; it is a carrier of additional quantities of 226 Ra, and considerable. The mixture zone of river and ocean waters is shown to be no ''geochemical barrier'' on the way to the ocean for river radium inlike the other microelements of the river run-off

  18. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  19. Future drying of the southern Amazon and central Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Cook, B.

    2008-12-01

    Recent climate modeling suggests that the Amazon rainforest could exhibit considerable dieback under future climate change, a prediction that has raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge, is in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. First, a decline in precipitation of 24% in the southern Amazon lengthens the dry season and reduces soil moisture, despite of an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to the nonlinear response in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season precipitation: (1) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient; (2) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure. Secondly, evaporation will increase due to the general warming, thus also reducing soil moisture. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of vegetation by 20%, and enhanced fire carbon flux by 10-15% in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence, the double pressure of deforestation and climate change may subject the region to dramatic changes in the 21st century.

  20. Beginning Amazon Web Services with Node.js

    CERN Document Server

    Shackelford, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Beginning Amazon Web Services with Node.js teaches any novice Node.js developer to configure, deploy, and maintain scalable small to large scale Node.js applications in Amazon Web Services. Hosting a Node.js application in a production environment usually means turning to PaaS hosting, but this approach brings problems. Deploying Node.js directly to AWS solves the problems you encounter in these situations, enabling you to cut out the middle man. You will begin with a basic RESTful web service in Node.js, using the popular Express.js framework, pre-built and ready to run in your local env

  1. Assessing the Amazon Cloud Suitability for CLARREO's Computational Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldin, Daniel; Vakhnin, Andrei A.; Currey, Jon C.

    2015-01-01

    In this document we compare the performance of the Amazon Web Services (AWS), also known as Amazon Cloud, with the CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) cluster and assess its suitability for computational needs of the CLARREO mission. A benchmark executable to process one month and one year of PARASOL (Polarization and Anistropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) data was used. With the optimal AWS configuration, adequate data-processing times, comparable to the CLARREO cluster, were found. The assessment of alternatives to the CLARREO cluster continues and several options, such as a NASA-based cluster, are being considered.

  2. Osteoma in a blue-fronted Amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, João Felipe Rito; Levy, Marcelo Guilherme Bezerra; Liparisi, Flavia; Romão, Mario Antonio Pinto

    2013-09-01

    Osteoma is an uncommon bone formation documented in avian species and other animals. A blue-fronted Amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva) with clinical respiratory symptoms was examined because of a hard mass present on the left nostril. Radiographs suggested a bone tumor, and the mass was surgically excised. Histopathologic examination revealed features of an osteoma. To our knowledge, this is the first description of an osteoma in a blue-fronted Amazon parrot. Osteoma should be considered as a differential diagnosis in birds with respiratory distress and swelling of the nostril.

  3. The Visibility of Work among Ticuna Women in the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraildes Caldas Torres

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the Amazon Indian craftsmanship, done by Ticuna Women. Crafts are shown to be an important product in the strong positive development in the rural Amazon community. It works with data observed and collected in research done as a consultant for Sebrae/Amazonas in 2004. It shows how women work is an organizing element of the domestic economy for the Ticuna ethnicity. A principal feature of the sexual division of labor places women as having more responsibility for family maintenance.

  4. Particle growth kinetics over the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinterich, T.; Andreae, M. O.; Artaxo, P.; Kuang, C.; Longo, K.; Machado, L.; Manzi, A. O.; Martin, S. T.; Mei, F.; Pöhlker, C.; Pöhlker, M. L.; Poeschl, U.; Shilling, J. E.; Shiraiwa, M.; Tomlinson, J. M.; Zaveri, R. A.; Wang, J.

    2016-12-01

    Aerosol particles larger than 100 nm play a key role in global climate by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Most of these particles, originated from new particle formation or directly emitted into the atmospheric, are initially too small to serve as CCN. These small particles grow to CCN size mainly through condensation of secondary species. In one extreme, the growth is dictated by kinetic condensation of very low-volatility compounds, favoring the growth of the smallest particles; in the other extreme, the process is driven by Raoult's law-based equilibrium partitioning of semi-volatile organic compound, favoring the growth of larger particles. These two mechanisms can lead to very different production rates of CCN. The growth of particles depends on a number of parameters, including the volatility of condensing species, particle phase, and diffusivity inside the particles, and this process is not well understood in part due to lack of ambient data. Here we examine atmospheric particle growth using high-resolution size distributions measured onboard the DOE G-1 aircraft during GoAmazon campaign, which took place from January 2014 to December 2015 near Manaus, Brazil, a city surrounded by natural forest for over 1000 km in every direction. City plumes are clearly identified by the strong enhancement of nucleation and Aitken mode particle concentrations over the clean background. As the plume traveled downwind, particle growth was observed, and is attributed to condensation of secondary species and coagulation (Fig.1). Observed aerosol growth is modeled using MOSAIC (Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry), which dynamically partitions multiple compounds to all particle size bins by taking into account compound volatility, gas-phase diffusion, interfacial mass accommodation, particle-phase diffusion, and particle-phase reaction. The results from both wet and dry seasons will be discussed.

  5. Biomedical cloud computing with Amazon Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusaro, Vincent A; Patil, Prasad; Gafni, Erik; Wall, Dennis P; Tonellato, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    In this overview to biomedical computing in the cloud, we discussed two primary ways to use the cloud (a single instance or cluster), provided a detailed example using NGS mapping, and highlighted the associated costs. While many users new to the cloud may assume that entry is as straightforward as uploading an application and selecting an instance type and storage options, we illustrated that there is substantial up-front effort required before an application can make full use of the cloud's vast resources. Our intention was to provide a set of best practices and to illustrate how those apply to a typical application pipeline for biomedical informatics, but also general enough for extrapolation to other types of computational problems. Our mapping example was intended to illustrate how to develop a scalable project and not to compare and contrast alignment algorithms for read mapping and genome assembly. Indeed, with a newer aligner such as Bowtie, it is possible to map the entire African genome using one m2.2xlarge instance in 48 hours for a total cost of approximately $48 in computation time. In our example, we were not concerned with data transfer rates, which are heavily influenced by the amount of available bandwidth, connection latency, and network availability. When transferring large amounts of data to the cloud, bandwidth limitations can be a major bottleneck, and in some cases it is more efficient to simply mail a storage device containing the data to AWS (http://aws.amazon.com/importexport/). More information about cloud computing, detailed cost analysis, and security can be found in references.

  6. Jotï ecogony, Venezuelan Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zent, Egleé L

    2013-01-01

    The current environmental crisis permeates the discourse and concerns of people all over the world. Consideration of diverse environmental ethics showing the alternative ways in which people conceptualize and relate to nature and natural resources are critical for bringing about more sustainable human behaviors. After a brief review of Western historical notions of nature, this work explores the ecogony, or causal reasons, that trigger the behavior of the Jotï, an Amerindian people of the Venezuelan Amazon, with other entities and the forest that they inhabit. The analysis presented synthesizes 15 years of transdisciplinary ethno-ecological research comprising quantitative and qualitative methods (collection of herbarium voucher specimens, floristic inventories in forest plots, structured interviews focused on plot vegetation, semi-structured interviews of life-histories, participant observation, time allocation studies, food resource accounting, focal person following observations, garden crop inventories and censuses, mapping of wild resource harvest locations, among others). Jotï pragmatic and ideological tenets generate a distinctive environmental ethics based on ecogonic nodes. Notions of interdependence, humanity and person are articulated on a daily basis through several dynamics: (1) hyper-awareness of all living things’ dependence on each other and other elements of the biophysical environment at macroscales and microscales, (2) the construction of human spiritual, conscious, physical and agentive constituents from a variety of diverse botanical and zoological species and mineral components of their homeland, and (3) an understanding of the aggregate surroundings, including a significant portion of the biotic and abiotic components, as potential subjects with awareness, creativity and moral stances. This condition of interdependence confers rights and duties on all the parts. Jotï horizontal communications with and among life-forms sustain their

  7. Jotï ecogony, Venezuelan Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zent, Egleé L.

    2013-03-01

    The current environmental crisis permeates the discourse and concerns of people all over the world. Consideration of diverse environmental ethics showing the alternative ways in which people conceptualize and relate to nature and natural resources are critical for bringing about more sustainable human behaviors. After a brief review of Western historical notions of nature, this work explores the ecogony, or causal reasons, that trigger the behavior of the Jotï, an Amerindian people of the Venezuelan Amazon, with other entities and the forest that they inhabit. The analysis presented synthesizes 15 years of transdisciplinary ethno-ecological research comprising quantitative and qualitative methods (collection of herbarium voucher specimens, floristic inventories in forest plots, structured interviews focused on plot vegetation, semi-structured interviews of life-histories, participant observation, time allocation studies, food resource accounting, focal person following observations, garden crop inventories and censuses, mapping of wild resource harvest locations, among others). Jotï pragmatic and ideological tenets generate a distinctive environmental ethics based on ecogonic nodes. Notions of interdependence, humanity and person are articulated on a daily basis through several dynamics: (1) hyper-awareness of all living things’ dependence on each other and other elements of the biophysical environment at macroscales and microscales, (2) the construction of human spiritual, conscious, physical and agentive constituents from a variety of diverse botanical and zoological species and mineral components of their homeland, and (3) an understanding of the aggregate surroundings, including a significant portion of the biotic and abiotic components, as potential subjects with awareness, creativity and moral stances. This condition of interdependence confers rights and duties on all the parts. Jotï horizontal communications with and among life-forms sustain their

  8. Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; ter Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; van der Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

  9. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  10. Amazon Forests Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Jian; Myneni, Ranga; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Park, Taejin; Chi, Chen; Yan, Kai; Knyazikhin, Yuri

    2016-01-01

    Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth's climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests' response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI) data to assess Amazon forests' response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6) MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1) the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity) of Amazon forests; (2) the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3) in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

  11. Amazon Forests’ Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Bi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth’s climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests’ response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS vegetation index (VI data to assess Amazon forests’ response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6 MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1 the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; (2 the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3 in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

  12. Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

    2017-01-01

    Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of

  13. Identification of Plasmodium spp. in Neotropical primates of Maranhense Amazon in Northeast Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayra Araguaia Pereira Figueiredo

    Full Text Available In the Brazilian Amazon region, malaria caused by Plasmodium malariae is considered to be a zoonosis because of cross-transfer of the parasite between humans and Neotropical primates. To contribute information on this issue, we investigated occurrences of natural infection with Plasmodium sp. among Neotropical primates in the Maranhense Amazon (Amazon region of the state of Maranhão, in the northeastern region of Brazil. Blood samples were collected from 161 Neotropical primates of six species that were caught in an environmental reserve (Sítio Aguahy and from captive primates (CETAS-Wildlife Screening Center, municipality of São Luís, in Maranhão. Plasmodium sp. was diagnosed based on light microscopy, PCR, qPCR and LAMP for amplification of the 18S rRNA gene. Serum samples were also assayed by means of indirect immunofluorescence for IgG antibodies against P. malariae/P. brasilianum, P. falciparum and P. berghei. Parasites were detected through light microscopy on five slides from captive primates (four Sapajus spp. and one Callithrix jacchus. In the molecular tests, 34.16% (55/161 and 29.81% (48/161 of the animals sampled were positive in the qPCR and PCR assays, respectively. In the PCR, 47/48 animals were positive for P. malariae/P. brasilianum; of these, eight were free-living primates and 39 from CETAS, São Luís. One sample showed a band in the genus-specific reaction, but not in the second PCR reaction. Anti-P. malariae/P. brasilianum IgG antibodies were detected in four serum samples from Sapajus spp. in captivity. In this study, circulation of P. malariae/P. brasilianum in Neotropical primates was confirmed, with low levels of parasitemia and low levels of antibodies. The importance of these animals as reservoirs of human malaria in the region studied is still unknown. This scenario has an impact on control and elimination of malaria in this region.

  14. An Analysis of Cloud Computing with Amazon Web Services for the Atmospheric Science Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, J. L.; Little, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    NASA science and engineering efforts rely heavily on compute and data handling systems. The nature of NASA science data is such that it is not restricted to NASA users, instead it is widely shared across a globally distributed user community including scientists, educators, policy decision makers, and the public. Therefore NASA science computing is a candidate use case for cloud computing where compute resources are outsourced to an external vendor. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a commercial cloud computing service developed to use excess computing capacity at Amazon, and potentially provides an alternative to costly and potentially underutilized dedicated acquisitions whenever NASA scientists or engineers require additional data processing. AWS desires to provide a simplified avenue for NASA scientists and researchers to share large, complex data sets with external partners and the public. AWS has been extensively used by JPL for a wide range of computing needs and was previously tested on a NASA Agency basis during the Nebula testing program. Its ability to support the Langley Science Directorate needs to be evaluated by integrating it with real world operational needs across NASA and the associated maturity that would come with that. The strengths and weaknesses of this architecture and its ability to support general science and engineering applications has been demonstrated during the previous testing. The Langley Office of the Chief Information Officer in partnership with the Atmospheric Sciences Data Center (ASDC) has established a pilot business interface to utilize AWS cloud computing resources on a organization and project level pay per use model. This poster discusses an effort to evaluate the feasibility of the pilot business interface from a project level perspective by specifically using a processing scenario involving the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project.

  15. Risk assessment of PM2.5 to child residents in Brazilian Amazon region with biofuel production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Oliveira Beatriz Fátima

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine fractions of particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with increased hospital admissions and mortality for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in children and the elderly. This study aims to estimate the toxicological risk of PM2.5 from biomass burning in children and adolescents between the age of 6 and 14 in Tangará da Serra, a municipality of Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon. Methods Risk assessment methodology was applied to estimate the risk quotient in two scenarios of exposure according to local seasonality. The potential dose of PM2.5 was estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation, stratifying the population by age, gender, asthma and Body Mass Index (BMI. Results Male asthmatic children under the age of 8 at normal body rate had the highest risk quotient among the subgroups. The general potential average dose of PM2.5 was 1.95 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 1.62 – 2.27 during the dry scenario and 0.32 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 0.29 – 0.34 in the rainy scenario. During the dry season, children and adolescents showed a toxicological risk to PM2.5 of 2.07 μg/kg.day (95% CI: 1.85 – 2 .30. Conclusions Children and adolescents living in the Subequatorial Brazilian Amazon region were exposed to high levels of PM2.5 resulting in toxicological risk for this multi-pollutant. The toxicological risk quotients of children in this region were comparable or higher to children living in metropolitan regions with PM2.5 air pollution above the recommended limits to human health.

  16. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  17. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  18. Social, biological, and environmental drivers of the hunting and trade of the endangered yellow-footed tortoise in the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís Q. Morcatty

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Chelonians constitute an important source of food and income for the inhabitants of tropical forests. We assessed the social, biological, and environmental factors affecting the hunting and trade of the endangered yellow-footed tortoise (Chelonoidis denticulata in rural and urban areas in the Amazon and estimated the sustainability of tortoise use. We also discuss possible conservation alternatives that are compatible with the needs of local inhabitants. We monitored tortoise hunting and trade for 12 years in 10 traditional communities that exploit different habitat types in the Brazilian Amazon and collected data on the tortoise trade in two urban markets for six years. In upland forests, tortoise hunting mainly occurred during the dry season; in whitewater flooded forests, hunting mainly occurred during the flood season. The tortoise trade was carried out nearly entirely by whitewater flooded forest users and was intimately related to fishing, the main economic activity in these communities. Furthermore, the tortoise trade was encouraged in whitewater flooded forests because this environment yielded significantly heavier tortoises than upland forests, and we observed a strong relationship between trade probability and tortoise size. The tortoise trade was found to primarily supply nearby urban centers, generating high monetary gain. Female tortoises suffered greater hunting pressure and were more valued in the bushmeat market. The productivity of tortoise hunting in the monitored communities severely decreased with time. In addition, the price per kilogram of tortoise greatly increased in the urban market. Given this unsustainable scenario, policies regulating tortoise hunting in the Amazon are needed. These policies must be adapted to the different patterns of tortoise use by rural communities while maintaining the culture and food sovereignty of the local inhabitants.

  19. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  20. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  1. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

    2015-03-19

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

  2. Learning big data with Amazon Elastic MapReduce

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Amarkant

    2014-01-01

    This book is aimed at developers and system administrators who want to learn about Big Data analysis using Amazon Elastic MapReduce. Basic Java programming knowledge is required. You should be comfortable with using command-line tools. Prior knowledge of AWS, API, and CLI tools is not assumed. Also, no exposure to Hadoop and MapReduce is expected.

  3. Condition and fate of logged forests in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory P. Asner; Eben N. Broadbent; Paulo J. C. Oliveira; Michael Keller; David E. Knapp; Jose N. M. Silva

    2006-01-01

    The long-term viability of a forest industry in the Amazon region of Brazil depends on the maintenance of adequate timber volume and growth in healthy forests. Using extensive high-resolution satellite analyses, we studied the forest damage caused by recent logging operations and the likelihood that logged forests would be cleared within 4 years after timber harvest....

  4. People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peña Venegas, C.P.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract

    Clara Patricia Peña Venegas (2015). People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, with summaries in English and Dutch, 210 pp.

    The presence of anthropogenic soils, or Amazonian Dark

  5. Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondízio, Eduardo S; de Lima, Ana C B; Schramski, Sam; Adams, Cristina

    2016-07-01

    The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited. This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions. Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO. This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels. Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.

  6. Amazon estuary - assessment of trace elements in seabed sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lara, L.B.L.S.; Fernandes, E.A.N.; Oliveira, H.; Bacchi, M.A.; Ferraz, E.S.B.

    1997-01-01

    The interactive processes operating on the continental shelf to the river mouth control the amount and the characteristics of the Amazon discharge reaching the Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the distribution of trace elemental concentrations, with emphasis to the rare-earth elements, in sediment cores collected at several stations from the Amazon continental shelf during the falling water period was investigated by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Cores from the terrigenous and blue water zones have relatively uniform REE concentrations throughout the profile. Cerium anomalies for samples of the upper section of the eight stations are consistently positive and of high values (normally > 2). Similar variation in the elemental concentration ratios between the seabed sediments and Amazon River suspended sediments was seen for stations located in the biogenic and blue water zones, with an enrichment for Ce, Sm, Fe, Th, and Sc and a depletion for the La, Eu, Tb, Yb, Co, Cr, Cs, Hf, Ta, and Zn. The shale-normalized REE patterns from shelf sediments are enriched in LREE relative to HREE, with enrichment factors varying from 1.5 for stations near the river mouth (terrigenous zone) to 1.9 for station located far in the blue water zone. Published data for the Amazon River suspended sediment agree remarkably well with this observation of LREE-enrichment. (author)

  7. Sustainable Amazon : Limitations and Opportunities for Rural Development

    OpenAIRE

    Schneider, Robert R.; Arima, Eugenio; Verissimo, Adalberto; Souza, Carlos, Jr.; Barreto, Paulo

    2002-01-01

    The report contributes to the debate surrounding land use in the Brazilian Amazon. It sets the context by reviewing the evidence concerning the deleterious effect of increasing levels of rainfall on agricultural settlement, and productivity. Next, it compares the economic future of an Amazonian community, under the traditional "predatory logging followed by ranching" model, and under susta...

  8. Following Saharan Dust Outbreak Toward The Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ami, Y.; Koren, I.; Rudich, Y.; Flores, M.

    2008-12-01

    The role of the Amazon rainforest on earth climatic system is well recognized. To keep forest wellbeing and the fragile balance between the rainforest and the atmosphere, the Amazon must contain a satisfactory amount of nutrients to support the plants. The extensive rain and floods wash most of the soluble nutrients from the rainforest soil, leaving behind acidic kaolinite clay or sandy soil, with limited minerals for plant growth. It was suggested that lack of mineral in the soil may be replenished by deposition of Saharan mineral dust. Using remote sensing data (from the A-train satellites constellation) following with in-situ measurements (as part of the AMazonian Aerosol CharacteriZation Experiment (AMZE) campaign), ground-based data (from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET)) and back trajectory calculations, we analyzed Saharan dust transport toward the Amazon basin during the AMZE period (Feb 7 to Mar 14, 2008). Dust mass, sink, vertical distribution and surface wind speeds were analyzed over the Bodele depression (located in Chad), where most of the dust is emitted, along the Atlantic Ocean and near the Brazilian coastline. Using an integrated data analysis approach we followed dust packages from their emission in the Sahara to their sink in the Amazon forest.

  9. Photovoltaics and eco-tourism in the Peruvian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenkins, D. [Dulas Ltd. (United Kingdom)

    2000-04-01

    The Explorama company caters for tourists in the jungles along the Amazon in Peru where the mains electricity (if present at all) is notoriously unreliable. The company therefore generates electricity through photovoltaic cells so that the tourists can enjoy home comforts such as lights, fans, air-conditioning, radio, freezers and refrigerators. The paper discusses the various units supplying the electric power. (uk)

  10. Extreme Drought Events Revealed in Amazon Tree Ring Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, H. S.; Baker, P. A.; Guilderson, T. P.

    2010-12-01

    The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global hydrologic circulation. Yet despite its significance, a full understanding of Amazon rainfall variability remains elusive due to a poor historical record of climate. Temperate tree rings have been used extensively to reconstruct climate over the last thousand years, however less attention has been given to the application of dendrochronology in tropical regions, in large part due to a lower frequency of tree species known to produce annual rings. Here we present a tree ring record of drought extremes from the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru over the last 190 years. We confirm that tree ring growth in species Cedrela odorata is annual and show it to be well correlated with wet season precipitation. This correlation is used to identify extreme dry (and wet) events that have occurred in the past. We focus on drought events identified in the record as drought frequency is expected to increase over the Amazon in a warming climate. The Cedrela chronology records historic Amazon droughts of the 20th century previously identified in the literature and extends the record of drought for this region to the year 1816. Our analysis shows that there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme drought (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) since the turn of the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated.

  11. Amazonía y el medio ambiente

    OpenAIRE

    Mosquera Mesa, Ricardo

    2010-01-01

    Editorial: Amazonía: responsabilidad de todos -- Ecología y economía -- El patrimonio cultural amazónico -- La universidad y el liderazgo investigativo -- cooperación internacional -- Realizaciones y perspectivas -- Por una política de investigación ambiental

  12. Food Security, Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Bolivian Amazon ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indigenous communities involved in fisheries and aquaculture are among the most food insecure in the Bolivian Amazon. Although fish could be the main source of protein, it is often not part of the local diet. This project - supported by the Canadian International Food Security Research Fund (CIFSRF), a joint program of ...

  13. Microsatellites for the gynogenetic Amazon molly, Poecilia formosa

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 85; Issue 1. Microsatellites for the gynogenetic Amazon molly, Poecilia formosa: useful tools for detection of mutation rate, ploidy determination and overall genetic diversity. Kathrin P. Lampert Dunja K. Lamatsch Susanne Schories Armin Hopf Francisco J. García De León ...

  14. Lipids of Amazon Caimans: A source of fatty acids

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ariane

    2016-07-20

    Jul 20, 2016 ... Therefore, an in vivo study on the properties of Amazon caiman's fat and its antioxidant activity is suggested to investigate its possible biotechnological use as nutraceutical, such as the fish oils that have already been manufactured by the pharmaceutical companies. Conflict of interest. The authors have not ...

  15. Two new Morganella species from the Brazilian Amazon rainforest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo DS

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Two new Morganella species, M. albostipitata and M. rimosa were found during studies of gasteroid fungi in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, Adolpho Ducke Forest Reserve, Amazonas State, Brazil. The new taxa are described, and illustrated with photographs and line drawings, and taxonomical comments are made.

  16. Placentation in dolphins from the Amazon River Basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    da Silva, Vera M F; Carter, Anthony M; Ambrosio, Carlos E

    2007-01-01

    A recent reassessment of the phylogenetic affinities of cetaceans makes it timely to compare their placentation with that of the artiodactyls. We studied the placentae of two sympatric species of dolphin from the Amazon River Basin, representing two distinct families. The umbilical cord branched ...

  17. Andes hantavirus variant in rodents, southern Amazon Basin, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuri, Hugo; Tokarz, Rafal; Ghersi, Bruno M; Salmon-Mulanovich, Gabriela; Guezala, M Claudia; Albujar, Christian; Mendoza, A Patricia; Tinoco, Yeny O; Cruz, Christopher; Silva, Maria; Vasquez, Alicia; Pacheco, Víctor; Ströher, Ute; Guerrero, Lisa Wiggleton; Cannon, Deborah; Nichol, Stuart T; Hirschberg, David L; Lipkin, W Ian; Bausch, Daniel G; Montgomery, Joel M

    2014-02-01

    We investigated hantaviruses in rodents in the southern Amazon Basin of Peru and identified an Andes virus variant from Neacomys spinosus mice. This finding extends the known range of this virus in South America and the range of recognized hantaviruses in Peru. Further studies of the epizoology of hantaviruses in this region are warranted.

  18. Andes Hantavirus Variant in Rodents, Southern Amazon Basin, Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Razuri, Hugo; Tokarz, Rafal; Ghersi, Bruno M.; Salmon-Mulanovich, Gabriela; Guezala, M. Claudia; Albujar, Christian; Mendoza, A. Patricia; Tinoco, Yeny O.; Cruz, Christopher; Silva, Maria; Vasquez, Alicia; Pacheco, Víctor; Ströher, Ute; Guerrero, Lisa Wiggleton; Cannon, Deborah

    2014-01-01

    We investigated hantaviruses in rodents in the southern Amazon Basin of Peru and identified an Andes virus variant from Neacomys spinosus mice. This finding extends the known range of this virus in South America and the range of recognized hantaviruses in Peru. Further studies of the epizoology of hantaviruses in this region are warranted.

  19. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Classroom Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijman, Jan; Hill, A. David

    1991-01-01

    Presents a classroom project dealing with tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Addresses environmental consequences and economic, social, and political causes. Involves both lectures and individual research and reports by student groups on deforestation causes. Includes a note-playing activity in which students make recommendations for…

  20. Kindling: The Amazon e-Reader as an Educational Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezicki, Colin

    2011-01-01

    The revolutionary electronic reading device, Amazon's Kindle, is already obsolete. Such is the breakneck speed of technology that the machine touted to spell the death of printed books is already heading for the scrap heap, replaced by e-readers like the iPad that access the Internet, make phone calls, download movies, and connect users with all…

  1. Reshaping institutions : bricolage processes in smallholder forestry in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, de J.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis aims at identifying the different kinds of institutional influences on forest practices of small farmers in the Amazon region of Ecuador and Bolivia and how small farmers respond to them. It departs from the perspective that institutions affecting forest practices are subject to

  2. Commons management and ecotourism: Ethnographic evidence from the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stronza, Amanda Lee

    2010-01-01

    TThe paper evaluates the relationship between ecotourism and commons management. Social and economic impacts of ecotourism in an indigenous village in the Peruvian Amazon are considered in relation to opportunities for collective action to manage common pool resources, including wildlife, forests,

  3. Tree rings and rainfall in the equatorial Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granato-Souza, Daniela; Stahle, David W.; Barbosa, Ana Carolina; Feng, Song; Torbenson, Max C. A.; de Assis Pereira, Gabriel; Schöngart, Jochen; Barbosa, Joao Paulo; Griffin, Daniel

    2018-05-01

    The Amazon basin is a global center of hydroclimatic variability and biodiversity, but there are only eight instrumental rainfall stations with continuous records longer than 80 years in the entire basin, an area nearly the size of the coterminous US. The first long moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronology has been developed in the eastern equatorial Amazon of Brazil based on dendrochronological analysis of Cedrela cross sections cut during sustainable logging operations near the Rio Paru. The Rio Paru chronology dates from 1786 to 2016 and is significantly correlated with instrumental precipitation observations from 1939 to 2016. The strength and spatial scale of the precipitation signal vary during the instrumental period, but the Rio Paru chronology has been used to develop a preliminary reconstruction of February to November rainfall totals from 1786 to 2016. The reconstruction is related to SSTs in the Atlantic and especially the tropical Pacific, similar to the stronger pattern of association computed for the instrumental rainfall data from the eastern Amazon. The tree-ring data estimate extended drought and wet episodes in the mid- to late-nineteenth century, providing a valuable, long-term perspective on the moisture changes expected to emerge over the Amazon in the coming century due to deforestation and anthropogenic climate change.

  4. Computational Platform About Amazon Web Services (Aws Distributed Rendering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Rojas-Albarracín

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Today has created a dynamic in which people require higher image quality in different media formats (games, movies, animations. Further definition usually requires image processing larger; this brings the need for increased computing power. This paper presents a case study in which the implementation of a low-cost platform on the Amazon cloud for parallel processing of images and animation.

  5. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  6. The Impacts of Amazon Deforestation on Pacific Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Leah

    Variability in eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation are known to affect Amazonian precipitation, but to what extent do changing Amazonian vegetation and rainfall impact eastern Pacific SST? The Amazon rainforest is threatened by many factors including climate change and clearing for agricultural reasons. Forest fires and dieback are more likely due to increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the region. It is possible that extensive Amazon deforestation can enhance El Nino conditions by weakening the Walker circulation. Correlations between annual rainfall rates over the Amazon and other atmospheric parameters (global precipitation, surface air temperature, low cloud amount, 500 hPa vertical velocity, surface winds, and 200 hPa winds) over the eastern Pacific indicate strong relationships among these fields. Maps of these correlations (teleconnection maps) reveal that when the Amazon is rainy SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific are cold, rainfall is suppressed over the central and eastern Pacific, low clouds are prominent over the eastern and southeastern Pacific, and subsidence over the central and eastern Pacific is enhanced. Precipitation in the Amazon is also consistent with a strong Walker circulation (La Nina conditions), manifest as strong correlations with the easterly surface and westerly 200 hPa zonal winds. Coupling between Amazon rainfall and these fields are seen in observations and model data. Correlations were calculated using data from observations, reanalysis data, two models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/AMIP), and an AMIP run with the model used in this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.1.1). Although the correlations between Amazon precipitation and the aforementioned fields are strong, they do not show causality. In order to investigate the impact of tropical South American deforestation on the

  7. Rapid diagnostic test for G6PD deficiency in Plasmodium vivax-infected men: a budget impact analysis based in Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Henry Maia; Brito, Marcelo Augusto Mota; Romero, Gustavo Adolfo Sierra; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; de Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; de Oliveira, Maria Regina Fernandes

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental budget impact (IBI) of a rapid diagnostic test to detect G6PDd in male patients infected with Plasmodium vivax in the Brazilian Amazon, as compared with the routine protocol recommended in Brazil which does not include G6PDd testing. The budget impact analysis was performed from the perspective of the Brazilian health system, in the Brazilian Amazon for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015. The analysis used a decision model to compare two scenarios: the first consisting of the routine recommended in Brazil which does not include prior diagnosis of dG6PD, and the second based on the use of RDT CareStart™ G6PD (CS-G6PD) in all male subjects diagnosed with vivax malaria. The expected implementation of the diagnostic test was 30% in the first year, 70% the second year and 100% in the third year. The analysis identified negative IBIs which were progressively smaller in the 3 years evaluated. The sensitivity analysis showed that the uncertainties associated with the analytical model did not significantly affect the results. A strategy based on the use of CS-G6PD would result in better use of public resources in the Brazilian Amazon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Phylogeny of Amazona barbadensis and the Yellow-headed Amazon complex (Aves: Psittacidae): a new look at South American parrot evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urantówka, Adam Dawid; Mackiewicz, Paweł; Strzała, Tomasz

    2014-01-01

    The Yellow-shouldered Amazon (Amazona barbadensis) is the sole parrot of the genus Amazona that inhabits only dry forests. Its population has been dropping; therefore it has been the topic of many studies and conservation efforts. However, the phylogenetic relationship of this species to potential relatives classified within the Yellow-Headed Amazon (YHA) complex are still not clear. Therefore, we used more extensive data sets, including the newly sequenced mitochondrial genome of A. barbadensis, to conduct phylogenetic analyses. Various combinations of genes and many phylogenetic approaches showed that A. barbadensis clustered significantly with A. ochrocephala ochrocephala from Colombia and Venezuela, which created the Northern South American (NSA) lineage, clearly separated from two other lineages within the YHA complex, the Central (CA) and South American (SA). Tree topology tests and exclusion of rapidly evolving sites provided support for a NSA+SA grouping. We propose an evolutionary scenario for the YHA complex and its colonization of the American mainland. The NSA lineage likely represents the most ancestral lineage, which derived from Lesser Antillean Amazons and colonized the northern coast of Venezuela about a million years ago. Then, Central America was colonized through the Isthmus of Panama, which led to the emergence of the CA lineage. The southward expansion to South America and the origin of the SA lineage happened almost simultaneously. However, more intensive or prolonged gene flow or migrations have led to much weaker geographic differentiation of genetic markers in the SA than in the CA lineage.

  9. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  10. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  11. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  12. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  13. Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in free-living Amazon river dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from central Amazon, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important pathogen in aquatic mammals and its presence in these animals may indicate water contamination of aquatic environment by oocysts. Serum samples from 95 dolphins from free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from Sustainable Development Reserve Mamirauá (...

  14. Recovery of Areas Degraded by Mining Within the Amazon Forest: Interaction of the Physical Condition of Soil and Biological Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, A. I.; Mello, G. F.; Longo, R. M.; Fengler, F. H.; Peche Filho, A., Sr.

    2017-12-01

    One of the greatest natural riches of Brazil is the Amazon rainforest. The Amazon region is known for its abundance of mineral resources, and may include topaz, oil, and especially cassiterite. In this scope, the mining sector in Brazil has great strategic importance because it accounts for approximately 30% of the country's exports with a mineral production of 40 billion dollars (Brazilian Mining Institute, 2015). In this scenario, as a consequence of mining, the Amazonian ecosystem has been undergoing a constant process of degradation. An important artifice in the exploitation of mineral resources is the rehabilitation and/or recovery of degraded areas. This recovery requires the establishment of degradation indicators and also the quality of the soil associated with its biota, since the Amazonian environment is dynamic, heterogeneous and complex in its physical, chemical and biological characteristics. In this way, this work presupposes that it is possible to characterize the different stages of recovery of tillage floor areas in deactivated cassiterite mines, within the Amazonian forest, in order to evaluate the interactions between the level of biological activity (Serrapilheira Height, Coefficient Metabolic, Basal Breath) and physical soil characteristics (aggregate DMG, Porosity, Total Soil Density, Moisture Content), through canonical correlation analysis. The results present correlations between the groups of indicators. Thus, from the use of the groups defined by canonical correlations, it was possible to identify the response of the set of physical and biological variables to the areas at different stages of recovery.

  15. Late Miocene onset of the Amazon River and the Amazon deep-sea fan: Evidence from the Foz do Amazonas Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Figueiredo, J.; Hoorn, C.; van der Ven, P.; Soares, E.

    2009-01-01

    New biostratigraphic, isotopic, and well log data from exploration wells on the outer continental shelf and uppermost Amazon deep-sea fan, Brazil, reveal that the Amazon River was initiated as a transcontinental river between 11.8 and 11.3 Ma ago (middle to late Miocene), and reached its present

  16. The Late Miocene paleogeography of the Amazon Basin and the evolution of the Amazon River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latrubesse, Edgardo M.; Cozzuol, Mario; da Silva-Caminha, Silane A. F.; Rigsby, Catherine A.; Absy, Maria Lucia; Jaramillo, Carlos

    2010-05-01

    basin, and became instead an erosional area that contributed sediments to the Amazon fluvial system. At that time, the lowland fluvial systems of southwestern Amazonia (the Purus, Jurua and Javarí basins) become isolated from the Andes by the newly formed north-flowing Ucayali system and south-east flowing Madre de Dios System. It was during the early Pliocene that the Amazon fluvial system integrated regionally and acquired its present appearance, and also when it started to drain water and sediments on a large scale to the Atlantic Ocean.

  17. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  18. Large emissions from floodplain trees close the Amazon methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangala, Sunitha R.; Enrich-Prast, Alex; Basso, Luana S.; Peixoto, Roberta Bittencourt; Bastviken, David; Hornibrook, Edward R. C.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Marotta, Humberto; Calazans, Luana Silva Braucks; Sakuragui, Cassia Mônica; Bastos, Wanderley Rodrigues; Malm, Olaf; Gloor, Emanuel; Miller, John Bharat; Gauci, Vincent

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands are the largest global source of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas. However, methane emission inventories from the Amazon floodplain, the largest natural geographic source of CH4 in the tropics, consistently underestimate the atmospheric burden of CH4 determined via remote sensing and inversion modelling, pointing to a major gap in our understanding of the contribution of these ecosystems to CH4 emissions. Here we report CH4 fluxes from the stems of 2,357 individual Amazonian floodplain trees from 13 locations across the central Amazon basin. We find that escape of soil gas through wetland trees is the dominant source of regional CH4 emissions. Methane fluxes from Amazon tree stems were up to 200 times larger than emissions reported for temperate wet forests and tropical peat swamp forests, representing the largest non-ebullitive wetland fluxes observed. Emissions from trees had an average stable carbon isotope value (δ13C) of -66.2 ± 6.4 per mil, consistent with a soil biogenic origin. We estimate that floodplain trees emit 15.1 ± 1.8 to 21.2 ± 2.5 teragrams of CH4 a year, in addition to the 20.5 ± 5.3 teragrams a year emitted regionally from other sources. Furthermore, we provide a ‘top-down’ regional estimate of CH4 emissions of 42.7 ± 5.6 teragrams of CH4 a year for the Amazon basin, based on regular vertical lower-troposphere CH4 profiles covering the period 2010-2013. We find close agreement between our ‘top-down’ and combined ‘bottom-up’ estimates, indicating that large CH4 emissions from trees adapted to permanent or seasonal inundation can account for the emission source that is required to close the Amazon CH4 budget. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tree stem surfaces in mediating approximately half of all wetland CH4 emissions in the Amazon floodplain, a region that represents up to one-third of the global wetland CH4 source when trees are combined with other emission sources.

  19. Foraminifera and Thecamoebians as hydrodynamic indicators for Amazon estuarine system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laut, L. L.; Figueiredo, A. G.; Santos, V. F.; Souza-Vieira, S.

    2007-05-01

    The Amazon mangrove forest in Brazilian territory is one of the most extended in the world. It goes from Ponta do Tubarao (4S e 43W) to Cape Orange (5N e 51W) along 2,250 km of coast line. Because the Amazon River System influence, it can be divided into two regions; one with river influence toward north and the other without river influence. In order to characterize the mangrove environment hydrodynamic on both sides of the Amazon River System, foraminifera and thecamoebians assemblages were investigated in the sediment of two estuaries; Araguari to the North (1 15S - 50 30W) and Caete to the South (0 50S - 46 30W). For both estuaries forams and thecamoebians species distribution are atypical relative to other world regions. In both, there are only few calcareous forams and almost all are small and possible of being transported in suspension. Typical estuarine species were not identified. The typical mangrove forams which are agglutinated species were dominant in both estuaries. However, the Caete estuary has a large number of forams species (29), indicating better efficiency in mixing fresh and salt water in comparison to the Araguari. On the other hand, the Araguari has big richness of thecamoebians species (15) indicating fresh water prevalence. The fresh water predominance is due to the Amazon water plume being diverted to the Amapa coast where the Araguari estuary is located. The foraminifera species was also used to determine the salt water penetration in the estuary. In the Caete estuary, salt water penetrates to about 40 km while in the Araguari it does coincide with the limit of the bore tide wave "pororoca" penetration, 45 km. Based on the species succession (forams to thecamoebians species) the Araguary estuary can be divided into three regions controlled by turbidity: the outer, middle and inner estuary. The Caete species succession is not that clear and only could be divided based on salinity into outer and inner estuary. In both estuaries forams and

  20. Large emissions from floodplain trees close the Amazon methane budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangala, Sunitha R; Enrich-Prast, Alex; Basso, Luana S; Peixoto, Roberta Bittencourt; Bastviken, David; Hornibrook, Edward R C; Gatti, Luciana V; Marotta, Humberto; Calazans, Luana Silva Braucks; Sakuragui, Cassia Mônica; Bastos, Wanderley Rodrigues; Malm, Olaf; Gloor, Emanuel; Miller, John Bharat; Gauci, Vincent

    2017-12-14

    Wetlands are the largest global source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. However, methane emission inventories from the Amazon floodplain, the largest natural geographic source of CH 4 in the tropics, consistently underestimate the atmospheric burden of CH 4 determined via remote sensing and inversion modelling, pointing to a major gap in our understanding of the contribution of these ecosystems to CH 4 emissions. Here we report CH 4 fluxes from the stems of 2,357 individual Amazonian floodplain trees from 13 locations across the central Amazon basin. We find that escape of soil gas through wetland trees is the dominant source of regional CH 4 emissions. Methane fluxes from Amazon tree stems were up to 200 times larger than emissions reported for temperate wet forests and tropical peat swamp forests, representing the largest non-ebullitive wetland fluxes observed. Emissions from trees had an average stable carbon isotope value (δ 13 C) of -66.2 ± 6.4 per mil, consistent with a soil biogenic origin. We estimate that floodplain trees emit 15.1 ± 1.8 to 21.2 ± 2.5 teragrams of CH 4 a year, in addition to the 20.5 ± 5.3 teragrams a year emitted regionally from other sources. Furthermore, we provide a 'top-down' regional estimate of CH 4 emissions of 42.7 ± 5.6 teragrams of CH 4 a year for the Amazon basin, based on regular vertical lower-troposphere CH 4 profiles covering the period 2010-2013. We find close agreement between our 'top-down' and combined 'bottom-up' estimates, indicating that large CH 4 emissions from trees adapted to permanent or seasonal inundation can account for the emission source that is required to close the Amazon CH 4 budget. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tree stem surfaces in mediating approximately half of all wetland CH 4 emissions in the Amazon floodplain, a region that represents up to one-third of the global wetland CH 4 source when trees are combined with other emission sources.

  1. Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

    2012-12-01

    Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

  2. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  3. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  4. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  5. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  6. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  7. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  8. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

    OpenAIRE

    Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M J; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Rammig, Anja

    2017-01-01

    Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnetwork approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. ...

  9. In Search of the Amazon - Brazil, the United States and the Nature of a Region

    OpenAIRE

    Garfield, Seth

    2013-01-01

    Chronicling the dramatic history of the Brazilian Amazon during the Second World War, Seth Garfield provides fresh perspectives on contemporary environmental debates. His multifaceted analysis explains how the Amazon became the object of geopolitical rivalries, state planning, media coverage, popular fascination, and social conflict. In need of rubber, a vital war material, the United States spent millions of dollars to revive the Amazon's rubber trade. In the name of development and national...

  10. Highly reactive light-dependent monoterpenes in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardine, A. B.; Jardine, K. J.; Fuentes, J. D.; Martin, S. T.; Martins, G.; Durgante, F.; Carneiro, V.; Higuchi, N.; Manzi, A. O.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2015-03-01

    Despite orders of magnitude difference in atmospheric reactivity and great diversity in biological functioning, little is known about monoterpene speciation in tropical forests. Here we report vertically resolved ambient air mixing ratios for 12 monoterpenes in a central Amazon rainforest including observations of the highly reactive cis-β-ocimene (160 ppt), trans-β-ocimene (79 ppt), and terpinolene (32 ppt) which accounted for an estimated 21% of total monoterpene composition yet 55% of the upper canopy monoterpene ozonolysis rate. All 12 monoterpenes showed a mixing ratio peak in the upper canopy, with three demonstrating subcanopy peaks in 7 of 11 profiles. Leaf level emissions of highly reactive monoterpenes accounted for up to 1.9% of photosynthesis confirming light-dependent emissions across several Amazon tree genera. These results suggest that highly reactive monoterpenes play important antioxidant roles during photosynthesis in plants and serve as near-canopy sources of secondary organic aerosol precursors through atmospheric photooxidation via ozonolysis.

  11. A user experience evaluation of Amazon Kindle mobile application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Azham; Mkpojiogu, Emmanuel O. C.; Musa, Ja'afaru; Mortada, Salah

    2017-10-01

    There is a dramatic increase in the development of mobile applications in recent years. This makes the usability evaluation of these mobile applications an important aspect in the advancement and application of technology. In this paper, a laboratory-based usability evaluation was carried out on the Amazon Kindle app using 15 users who performed 5 tasks on the Kindle e-book mobile app. A post-test questionnaire was administered to elicit users' perception on the usability of the application. The results demonstrate that almost all the participants were satisfied with services provided by the Amazon Kindle e-book mobile app. On all the four user experience factors examined, namely, perceived ease-of-use, perceived visibility, perceived enjoyabilty, and perceived efficiency, the evaluation outcome shows that the participants had a good and rich mobile experience with the application.

  12. Rare models: Roger Casement, the Amazon, and the ethnographic picturesque.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Lesley

    2010-01-01

    In 1910 Roger Casement was sent by the British government to investigate the alleged humanitarian abuses of the Peruvian Amazon Company in the Putumayo, a disputed border zone in North West Amazonia. Casement brought more than verbal and written testimony back to London. On 26 June, some six months after he returned from the Amazon, Casement collected two Amerindian boys - Omarino and Ricudo - from Southampton docks. This paper will reconstruct the brief period that these young men spent in Britain in the summer of 1911 and assess, in particular, to what extent they were treated as 'exhibits' by Casement, who not only introduced them to leading members of the British establishment but also arranged for them to be painted and photographed following contemporary ethnographic conventions.

  13. Analisis E-Bisnis Terhadap Amazon dan Aquarelle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evawaty Tanuar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The internet and digital world is one thing that needs to be taken into account by the Company. Business through Internet, known as e-business, is another way to increase the relation between company and customers or prospective customers. Analysis from the view point of customers and the integration of technologies was conducted on 2 examples sites that well known in doing online business but have different history on how it started the e-commerce. They are Amazon and Aquarelle. By comparing the two sites, the characteristics of e-commerce sites could be studied. As a result, there are striking differences between these two sites, where Amazon is more oriented to sales, while Aquarelle more on customer-oriented impact to the design and implementation of their e-business. 

  14. The impact of rise of the Andes and Amazon landscape evolution on diversification of lowland terra-firme forest birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, A.; Wilkinson, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    upland terra-firme forest develop. The youngest landsurfaces thus appear to lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion from a northward (Caribbean) outlet to a generally eastward, Atlantic Ocean outlet. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. The bird DNA data appears to confirm the role of Amazonian rivers as primary diversification barriers, and thus probably as promoters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers of apparently different ages ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

  15. Crowdsourcing Participatory Evaluation of Medical Pictograms Using Amazon Mechanical Turk

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Bei; Willis, Matt; Sun, Peiyuan; Wang, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Background Consumer and patient participation proved to be an effective approach for medical pictogram design, but it can be costly and time-consuming. We proposed and evaluated an inexpensive approach that crowdsourced the pictogram evaluation task to Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) workers, who are usually referred to as the ?turkers?. Objective To answer two research questions: (1) Is the turkers? collective effort effective for identifying design problems in medical pictograms? and (2) Do ...

  16. AMADA: Web Data Repositories in the Amazon Cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Aranda-Andújar , Andrés; Bugiotti , Francesca; Camacho-Rodríguez , Jesús; Colazzo , Dario; Goasdoué , François; Kaoudi , Zoi; Manolescu , Ioana

    2012-01-01

    International audience; We present AMADA, a platform for storing Web data (in particular, XML documents and RDF graphs) based on the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud infrastructure. AMADA operates in a Software as a Service (SaaS) approach, allowing users to upload, index, store, and query large volumes of Web data. The demonstration shows (i) the step-by-step procedure for building and exploiting the warehouse (storing, indexing, querying) and (ii) the monitoring tools enabling one to control...

  17. Response of the Amazon rainforest to late Pleistocene climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggi, Christoph; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Merkel, Ute; Mulitza, Stefan; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael; Schefuß, Enno

    2017-12-01

    Variations in Amazonian hydrology and forest cover have major consequences for the global carbon and hydrological cycles as well as for biodiversity. Yet, the climate and vegetation history of the lowland Amazon basin and its effect on biogeography remain debated due to the scarcity of suitable high-resolution paleoclimate records. Here, we use the isotopic composition (δD and δ13C) of plant-waxes from a high-resolution marine sediment core collected offshore the Amazon River to reconstruct the climate and vegetation history of the integrated lowland Amazon basin for the period from 50,000 to 12,800 yr before present. Our results show that δD values from the Last Glacial Maximum were more enriched than those from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the present-day. We interpret this trend to reflect long-term changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation, with overall drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results thus suggest a dominant glacial forcing of the climate in lowland Amazonia. In addition to previously suggested thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation change, which are directly related to temperature, we conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation are crucial to explain the temporal evolution of Amazonian rainfall variations, as demonstrated in climate model experiments. Our vegetation reconstruction based on δ13C values shows that the Amazon rainforest was affected by intrusions of savannah or more open vegetation types in its northern sector during Heinrich Stadials, while it was resilient to glacial drying. This suggests that biogeographic patterns in tropical South America were affected by Heinrich Stadials in addition to glacial-interglacial climate variability.

  18. Palm diversity and abundance in the Colombian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Henrik; Copete, Juan Carlos; Pedersen, Dennis

    2017-01-01

    We studied diversity and abundance of palms in the eastern Colombian Amazon in 71 transects, 61 measuring 5×500 m and 10 transects measuring 4×500 m, innventoring a total of 17.25 hectares. We found a total of 74 species in 21 genera. In terra firme we found 68 species in 20 genera and an average...... found in this study (Euterpe precatoria, Oenocarpus bataua, Attalea butyracea, Iriartella setigera) coincide with dominant species in other Amazonian palm communities....

  19. Calha Norte: Explaining Brazilian Army Presence in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    the Yanomami Indians.""’ The potential wealth present in the Calha Norte region has been estimated at over US$134 billion, enough to repay almost all...garimpeiros to remain on Yanomami land was essentially a military decision. The Army’s pro-miner position was highlighted by official statements made by the...Environmental Policy and Military Geopolitics in the Development of the Brazilian Amazon: The Case of the Yanomami ," Development and Change (1992

  20. Reserves protect against deforestation fires in the Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Marion Adeney

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon.

  1. Reserves Protect against Deforestation Fires in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeney, J. Marion; Christensen, Norman L.; Pimm, Stuart L.

    2009-01-01

    Background Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. Methodology/Principal Findings Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. Conclusions/Significance Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon. PMID:19352423

  2. Logging Concessions Enable Illegal Logging Crisis in the Peruvian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Sky, Melissa A. Blue; Pine, Justin

    2014-01-01

    The Peruvian Amazon is an important arena in global efforts to promote sustainable logging in the tropics. Despite recent efforts to achieve sustainability, such as provisions in the US?Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, illegal logging continues to plague the region. We present evidence that Peru's legal logging concession system is enabling the widespread illegal logging via the regulatory documents designed to ensure sustainable logging. Analyzing official government data, we found that 68.3%...

  3. Oil frontiers and indigenous resistance in the Peruvian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orta-Martinez, Marti [ICTA, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona (Spain); Finer, Matt [Save America' s Forests, 4 Library Court. NW, Washington DC 20003 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    The Peruvian Amazon is culturally and biologically one of the most diverse regions on Earth. Since the 1920s oil exploration and extraction in the region have threatened both biodiversity and indigenous peoples, particularly those living in voluntary isolation. We argue that the phenomenon of peak oil, combined with rising demand and consumption, is now pushing oil extraction into the most remote corners of the world. Modern patterns of production and consumption and high oil prices are forcing a new oil exploratory boom in the Peruvian Amazon. While conflicts spread on indigenous territories, new forms of resistance appear and indigenous political organizations are born and become more powerful. The impacts of oil exploration and exploitation and indigenous resistance throughout the oil history of the Peruvian Amazon are reviewed here, focusing on the Achuar people in Rio Corrientes. The driving forces, impacts, and responses to the current oil exploration boom are analyzed from an environmental justice perspective. We conclude that, in a context of peak oil and growing global demand for oil, such devastating effects for minor quantities of oil are likely to increase and impact other remote parts of the world. (author)

  4. New products made with lignocellulosic nanofibers from Brazilian amazon forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bufalino, L; Mendes, L M; Tonoli, G H D; Fonseca, A; Rodrigues, A; Cunha, P I; Marconcini, J M

    2014-01-01

    The biodiversity of the Amazon forest is undoubtedly rich; hence there is considerable variety of plant fibers regarding their morphological, chemical and structural properties. The legal exploration of the Brazilian Amazon is based on sustainable management techniques, but the generation of a relevant amount of plant wastes still cant be avoided. The correct destination of such materials is a challenge that Brazilian companies have to face. In this context, the National Council of Science and Technology (CNPq) promoted the creation of investigation nets on sustainability of Brazilian agribusiness. The Brazilian Net on Lignocellulosic Composites and Nanocomposites was then created, with partnership between several national and international research institutions. Until the moment, the results showed that Amazon plant fibers that are discarded as residues have great potential to nanofiber production. Nanopapers with considerable high mechanical and physical strength, proper opacity and great crystalline index were produced by using a clean and simple mechanical method. Those materials are candidates to several uses such as packaging, substrates transparent conductive films, gas barrier films, solar cells and e-papers

  5. Atmospheric mercury concentrations in the basin of the amazon, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, N; Takizawa, Y; Hisamatsu, S; Abe, T; Abe, Y; Motohashi, Y

    1998-01-01

    A wide regional mercury pollution in Amazon, Brazil is closely associated with goldmining that has been carried out in the basin of tributaries of the Amazon since the eighteenth century. Possible involvement has been discussed on atmospheric circulation in distributing the volatile pollutant. We developed a portable air sampler for the collection of mercury compounds and determined atmospheric mercury concentrations at several sites in Brazil including the basin of the Amazon tributaries. The mean concentration of total mercury was between 9.1 and 14.0 ng/m(3) in the basin of the Uatumã River located in the tropical rain forest far from goldmining sites and from urbanized area. These mercury levels exceeded the background level previously reported in rural area and, furthermore, were higher than concentrations observed in Rio de Janeiro and in Manaus that were compatible with the reference values for urban area. Mercury concentrations were also determined in gold refineries in the basin of the Tapajos River, and detected at a significant but not a health deteriorating level. Although only preliminary data were available, the present observations were in favor of the hypothesis that mercury is distributed widely by long distant transport by the atmospheric circulation after released at gold mining sites.

  6. New products made with lignocellulosic nanofibers from Brazilian amazon forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bufalino, L.; Mendes, L. M.; Tonoli, G. H. D.; Rodrigues, A.; Fonseca, A.; Cunha, P. I.; Marconcini, J. M.

    2014-08-01

    The biodiversity of the Amazon forest is undoubtedly rich; hence there is considerable variety of plant fibers regarding their morphological, chemical and structural properties. The legal exploration of the Brazilian Amazon is based on sustainable management techniques, but the generation of a relevant amount of plant wastes still cant be avoided. The correct destination of such materials is a challenge that Brazilian companies have to face. In this context, the National Council of Science and Technology (CNPq) promoted the creation of investigation nets on sustainability of Brazilian agribusiness. The Brazilian Net on Lignocellulosic Composites and Nanocomposites was then created, with partnership between several national and international research institutions. Until the moment, the results showed that Amazon plant fibers that are discarded as residues have great potential to nanofiber production. Nanopapers with considerable high mechanical and physical strength, proper opacity and great crystalline index were produced by using a clean and simple mechanical method. Those materials are candidates to several uses such as packaging, substrates transparent conductive films, gas barrier films, solar cells and e-papers.

  7. Public policies and communication affecting forest cover in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.; Aguiar, A. P. D.

    2014-12-01

    The research program Amazalert was based on information delivered by the IPCC through its 2007 report, which indicates forest degradation processes in the Amazonian region as a consequence of anthropogenic actions. Such processes affecting the structural and functional characteristics of ecosystems would harm environmental services that guarantee, for example, the regulation of climate and the provision of fresh water. A survey was organized, through a multidisciplinary perspective, on the main policies and programs that can affect forest cover in the Amazon. These rules and norms seek to regulate societal actions by defining a developmental model for the region. Although deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, some locations maintain high levels of deforestation. In 2013, for example, the municipalities of Monte Alegre, Óbidos, Alenquer, Oriximiná, Curuá and Almeirin, in the northern region of the state of Para, showed the highest rates of deforestation in the Amazon. Managers and stakeholders within these areas are being interviewed to provide insights on how policies are interpreted and applied locally. There is an understanding delay between discourses normalized by federal governmental institutions and claims of local societies. The possible lack of clarity in official discourses added to the absence of a local communicative dynamics cause the phenomenon of incomplete information. Conflicts often occur in local institutional arenas resulting in violence and complex social and historical dissonances, enhanced by other public policies idealized in different temporal and spatial conditions.

  8. Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonter, Laura J; Herrera, Diego; Barrett, Damian J; Galford, Gillian L; Moran, Chris J; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2017-10-18

    Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil's Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boundaries, causing 11,670 km 2 of deforestation between 2005 and 2015. This extent represents 9% of all Amazon forest loss during this time and 12 times more deforestation than occurred within mining leases alone. Pathways leading to such impacts include mining infrastructure establishment, urban expansion to support a growing workforce, and development of mineral commodity supply chains. Mining-induced deforestation is not unique to Brazil; to mitigate adverse impacts of mining and conserve tropical forests globally, environmental assessments and licensing must considered both on- and off-lease sources of deforestation.

  9. Rural electrification of the Brazilian Amazon - Achievements and lessons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, Maria F.; Silveira, Semida

    2010-01-01

    The Brazilian government has the ambition to provide complete electricity coverage for all citizens as a means to promote development and reduce inequalities. Full coverage implies the provision of electricity to 15 million people in the country by the end of 2010 through the program Luz para Todos (LPT - light for all) launched in 2003. So far, 11 million people have benefited, 2 million of which live in the Amazon. In this paper, we analyze the linkages between development and rural electrification through the Human Development Index (HDI) and within the context of the Amazon. We examine the suitability of the HDI as a planning and monitoring tool for improving energy access and development. We show that the recognition of electricity access as a driver for development has led to concrete goals for electrification, actual action and welfare improvement. Our study serves to highlight the role of LPT in the development of the Amazon region, and the specific features and achievements of the Brazilian policy for universal electrification. We conclude that some challenges related to the electrification of isolated areas still lie ahead. We finalize with a discussion on the relevance of the Brazilian experience to other developing countries.

  10. Estimation of the evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villa Nova, N.A.; Salati, E.; Matsui, E.

    1976-01-01

    The establishment of a water balance for the Amazon Basin constitutes a problem of difficult solution, not only on the account of its extension and characteristics, but also for lack of sufficient meteorological and hydrological data. In an attempt to estimate the magnitude of the main components of the water balance, a study was made with data from the Brazilian Amazon Region and from some observation stations in other countries. An energy balance was made and based on this balance the water balance of the region was established, having the Penman method been adapted to forest conditions. The data obtained indicate that 90% of the evaportranspiration is due to the energy balance. The evaportranspiration in this area should be very close to the potential evaportranspiration, and the average found was of the order of 4mm/day, i.e., 1460mm/year. As a first approximation it was found that the Amazon Basin system receives 14,4X10 12 m 3 water/year through precipitation, this total being balanced by a surface discharge of 5,5 x10 12 m 3 /year and an evaportranspiration of 8,9x10 12 m 3 /year. Since transpiration by plants represents 61,8% of the water balance, all seems to indicate that intensive deforestation shall bring about alterations of the hydrological cycle [pt

  11. Investigating smoke's influence on primary production throughout the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanner, M. G.; Mahowald, N. M.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Tosca, M. G.

    2007-12-01

    Smoke from annual burning in the Amazon causes large reduction in surface insolation and increases the diffuse fraction of photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR). These effects have competing influence on gross primary production (GPP). Recent studies indicate that the sign of net influence depends on aerosol optical depth, but the magnitude of smoke's effect on continental-scale carbon cycling is very poorly constrained and may constitute an important term of fire's net impact on carbon storage. To investigate widespread effects of Amazon smoke on surface radiation properties, we apply a version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model with prognostic aerosol transport, driven with re-analysis winds. Carbon aerosol emissions are derived from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We use AERONET observations to identify model biases in aerosol optical depth, single-scatter albedo, and surface radiative forcing, and prescribe new aerosol optical properties based on field observations to improve model agreement with AERONET data. Finally, we quantify a potential range of smoke-induced change in large-scale GPP based on: 1) ground measurements of GPP in the Amazon as a function of aerosol optical depth and diffuse fraction of PAR, and 2) empirical functions of ecosystem-scale photosynthesis rates currently employed in models such as the Community Land Model (CLM).

  12. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  13. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

    2010-11-16

    The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

  15. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  16. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  17. Quantifying How Climate Affects Vegetation in the Amazon Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, K.; Kodali, A.; Szubert, M.; Ganguly, S.; Bongard, J.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon droughts in 2005 and 2010 have raised serious concern about the future of the rainforest. Amazon forests are crucial because of their role as the largest carbon sink in the world which would effect the global warming phenomena with decreased photosynthesis activity. Especially, after a decline in plant growth in 1.68 million km2 forest area during the once-in-a-century severe drought in 2010, it is of primary importance to understand the relationship between different climatic variables and vegetation. In an earlier study, we have shown that non-linear models are better at capturing the relation dynamics of vegetation and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, compared to linear models. In this research, we learn precise models between vegetation and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) for normal conditions in the Amazon region using genetic programming based symbolic regression. This is done by removing high elevation and drought affected areas and also considering the slope of the region as one of the important factors while building the model. The model learned reveals new and interesting ways historical and current climate variables affect the vegetation at any location. MAIAC data has been used as a vegetation surrogate in our study. For temperature and precipitation, we have used TRMM and MODIS Land Surface Temperature data sets while learning the non-linear regression model. However, to generalize the model to make it independent of the data source, we perform transfer learning where we regress a regularized least squares to learn the parameters of the non-linear model using other data sources such as the precipitation and temperature from the Climatic Research Center (CRU). This new model is very similar in structure and performance compared to the original learned model and verifies the same claims about the nature of dependency between these climate variables and the vegetation in the Amazon region. As a result of this

  18. Molecular characterization of an earliest cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) collection from Peruvian Amazon using microsatllite DNA markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is indigenous to the Amazon region of South America. The Peruvian Amazon harbors a large number of diverse cacao populations. Since the 1930s, several numbers of populations have been collected from the Peruvian Amazon and maintained as ex situ germplasm repositories in ...

  19. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  20. Net Heterotrophy in the Amazon Continental Shelf Changes Rapidly to a Sink of CO2 in the Outer Amazon Plume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalie Lefèvre

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon continental shelf and adjacent oceanic area were sampled for inorganic and organic carbon parameters in order to improve data coverage and understanding of carbon cycling dynamics within this important region. Seasonal coverage of the Amazon plume on the French Guiana continental shelf further north, was provided by CO2 monitoring using a merchant ship sailing from France to French Guiana (2006–2016. Salinity ranged from 1 to 36 (transects in April 2013, and May 2014. At salinity below 10, strong outgassing was observed with fugacity of CO2 (fCO2 over 2,000 μatm. This region displayed net heterotrophy, fueled by organic matter with terrestrial origin, as shown by δ13C and δ15N values of suspended particles. A δ13C cross shelf average of −31% was measured during May 2014, contrasting with oceanic values in excess of −20%. The reactivity of this terrestrial material resulted in the local production of dissolved inorganic and organic carbon as well as fluorescent humic compounds. Further offshore, the dilution of freshwater by ocean waters created a sink for CO2, enhanced by biological activity. The strongest CO2 drawdowns, associated with high chlorophyll a concentrations, were observed on the French Guiana continental shelf in the outer Amazon plume, with fCO2 values below 150 μatm. Here, a CO2 sink was present almost throughout the year, with a seasonal maximum of −9.2 mmol CO2 m−2d−1 observed in June 2015. However, both the CO2 and salinity distributions could vary significantly within a few days, confirming the presence of many eddies in this region. The Amazon continental shelf hence behaved as a transition zone between an inshore source of CO2 to the atmosphere and an offshore sink. Some marine phytoplankton production was detected but occurred mainly close to the French Guiana shelf. A mean net CO2 outgassing of 44 ± 43.6 mmol m−2d−1 was estimated for the area. Quantifying the CO2 flux for the entire Amazon

  1. Amazon Forest Structure from IKONOS Satellite Data and the Automated Characterization of Forest Canopy Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Palace; Michael Keller; Gregory P. Asner; Stephen Hagen; Bobby . Braswell

    2008-01-01

    We developed an automated tree crown analysis algorithm using 1-m panchromatic IKONOS satellite images to examine forest canopy structure in the Brazilian Amazon. The algorithm was calibrated on the landscape level with tree geometry and forest stand data at the Fazenda Cauaxi (3.75◦ S, 48.37◦ W) in the eastern Amazon, and then compared with forest...

  2. A Slippery Slope: Children's Perceptions of Their Role in Environmental Preservation in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Despite international attention and attempts to preserve the environmental diversity of the Amazon, it is an accepted fact that those who inhabit the forest must be the ones who preserve it. This article presents an analysis of how children in small rural riverine communities along the Amazon understand the importance of environmental preservation…

  3. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M J; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Rammig, Anja

    2017-01-01

    Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss

  4. Hypoxia adaptation in fish of the Amazon: a never-ending task

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ance, fish of the Amazon have developed multiple adaptive solutions which occur at all biological levels. These solutions are thought to represent adaptive convergence rather than phylogenetic relatedness. Fish of the ..... these adjustments, morpho-functional adaptations of gills ..... Ecology of the flshes in the Amazon and.

  5. Transforming Data: An Ethnography of Scientific Data from the Brazilian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walford, Antonia Caitlin

    This thesis is an ethnography of scientific data produced by a Brazil-led scientific project in the Brazilian Amazon. It describes how the researchers and technicians make data about the Amazon forest, and how this data in turn generates different scientific communities, scientific subjectivities...

  6. Hypoxia adaptation in fish of the Amazon: a never-ending task | Val ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In addition to seasonal long-term changes in dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide, water bodies of the Amazon present periodic short-term episodes of hypoxia and even anoxia. To preserve gas exchange and acid base balance, fish of the Amazon have developed multiple adaptive solutions which occur at all biological ...

  7. Effects of environmental change on malaria in the Amazon region of Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takken, W.; Tarso Vilarinhos, de P.; Schneider, P.; Santos, dos F.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is endemic in Brazil, affecting mostly the Amazon states. Whereas 50 years ago good progress was made towards its control, since the opening up of the Amazon region for forestry, agriculture and livestock activities, the disease has rapidly increased in incidence, peaking to >500,000

  8. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S.; Verburg, R.W.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Bursztyn, M.; Vilhena, A.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied

  9. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S; Verburg, R.W.; Bursztyn, M; Lindoso, D; Debortoli, N

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied

  10. Desmidias (zygnemaphyceae) of a small tributary of the Amazons River in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunez Avellaneda, Marcela; Duque, Santiago

    2000-01-01

    This is a contribution to the knowledge of the freshwater algae of the Colombian Amazon region. Two of the 13 taxa are reported for the first time from Colombia and 10 are new records for the Colombian Amazon. Ecological characteristics are given for these desmids

  11. East of the Andes: The genetic profile of the Peruvian Amazon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Corcia, T; Sanchez Mellado, C; Davila Francia, T J; Ferri, G; Sarno, S; Luiselli, D; Rickards, O

    2017-06-01

    Assuming that the differences between the Andes and the Amazon rainforest at environmental and historical levels have influenced the distribution patterns of genes, languages, and cultures, the maternal and paternal genetic reconstruction of the Peruvian Amazon populations was used to test the relationships within and between these two extreme environments. We analyzed four Peruvian Amazon communities (Ashaninka, Huambisa, Cashibo, and Shipibo) for both Y chromosome (17 STRs and 8 SNPs) and mtDNA data (control region sequences, two diagnostic sites of the coding region, and one INDEL), and we studied their variability against the rest of South America. We detected a high degree of genetic diversity in the Peruvian Amazon people, both for mtDNA than for Y chromosome, excepting for Cashibo people, who seem to have had no exchanges with their neighbors, in contrast with the others communities. The genetic structure follows the divide between the Andes and the Amazon, but we found a certain degree of gene flow between these two environments, as particularly emerged with the Y chromosome descent cluster's (DCs) analysis. The Peruvian Amazon is home to an array of populations with differential rates of genetic exchanges with their neighbors and with the Andean people, depending on their peculiar demographic histories. We highlighted some successful Y chromosome lineages expansions originated in Peru during the pre-Columbian history which involved both Andeans and Amazon Arawak people, showing that at least a part of the Amazon rainforest did not remain isolated from those exchanges. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  13. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  14. Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land-use options in southern Amazonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regine Schönenberg

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results.

  15. Cloud characteristics, thermodynamic controls and radiative impacts during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giangrande, Scott E.; Feng, Zhe; Jensen, Michael P.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Johnson, Karen L.

    2017-01-01

    Routine cloud, precipitation and thermodynamic observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) and Aerial Facility (AAF) during the 2-year US Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign are summarized. These observations quantify the diurnal to large-scale thermodynamic regime controls on the clouds and precipitation over the undersampled, climatically important Amazon basin region. The extended ground deployment of cloud-profiling instrumentation enabled a unique look at multiple cloud regimes at high temporal and vertical resolution. This longer-term ground deployment, coupled with two short-term aircraft intensive observing periods, allowed new opportunities to better characterize cloud and thermodynamic observational constraints as well as cloud radiative impacts for modeling efforts within typical Amazon wet and dry seasons.

  16. Dampak Peningkatan Kepuasan Pelanggan dalam Proses Bisnis E-Commerce pada Perusahaan Amazon.Com

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Gusti Made Karmawan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Purpose of writing is to describe the impact of increased customer satisfaction in the business process of e-commerce at Amazon.com and analyzed e-commerce strategies used in the company.The Benefits are to get an overview of the strategies in the Amazon.com for improving customer satisfaction and the impact of increased satisfaction. The method of writing is conducting reviews of existing sources to gain an overview strategy and business processes e-commerce at Amazon.com. The paper results are gaining knowledge of thenumber of visitors and Sales that accurred at Amazon.com. The Conclusions is about the impact of increasing customer Satisfaction in the business process e-commerce in the Amazone.com.

  17. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  18. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  19. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  20. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  1. Andean contributions to the biogeochemistry of the amazon river system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available LA CONTRIBUTION ANDINE A LA BIOGEOCHIMIE DE L’AMAZONE. Les fleuves andins ont vraisemblablement un rôle déterminant sur la biogéochimie de l’Amazone au Brésil. Les données disponibles sur le C organique, le NO3- et le PO43- des fleuves andins montrent des concentrations très variables et ne révèlent aucune relation avec leur altitude ou leur position dans le bassin. En général, les concentrations des fleuves andins sont semblables à celles du chenal principal et de ses principaux affluents. L’explication des phénomènes d’altération du matériel provenant des Andes ne peut être que spéculative. Cependant, l’atténuation du signal andin est liée à la décomposition et à l’ajout de matériel en aval des Andes. Les analyses de 13C sur la matière organique particulaire ou soluble du chenal principal de l’Amazone mettent en évidence qu’une fraction andine persiste dans le système fluvial qui se jette dans l’océan Atlantique. En 1994, un nouveau programme international de recherche a commencé pour mieux caractériser la biogéochimie des fleuves andins. CONTRIBUCIÓN ANDINA A LA BIOGEOQUÍMICA DEL RÍO AMAZONAS. Los ríos andinos podrían ejercer una influencia significativa sobre la biogeoquímica del Río Amazonas. Las concentraciones en C orgánico, NO3- y PO43- de los ríos andinos son altamente variables y no presentan claros patrones geográficos o altitudinos. En general, las concentraciones presentan valores similares a aquéllos observados en el Río Amazonas. Actualmente sólo existen explicaciones especulativas de los procesos que modifican el material de origen andino sin embargo, la atenuación de la señal andina es una consecuencia del proceso de descomposición y de la añadidura de materiales provenientes de las planicies bajas. El contenido de 13C en el material orgánico del Río Amazonas constituye una evidencia concreta de que cierta fracción del material andino persiste y es transportado hacia el

  2. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  3. Consistency of Vegetation Index Seasonality Across the Amazon Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Wagner, Fabien; Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Wang, Yujie; Chave, Jerome; Mottus, Matti; Aragao, Luiz E.O.C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio

    2016-01-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) calculated from remotely sensed reflectance are widely used tools for characterizing the extent and status of vegetated areas. Recently, however, their capability to monitor the Amazon forest phenology has been intensely scrutinized. In this study, we analyze the consistency of VIs seasonal patterns obtained from two MODIS products: the Collection 5 BRDF product (MCD43) and the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC). The spatio-temporal patterns of the VIs were also compared with field measured leaf litterfall, gross ecosystem productivity and active microwave data. Our results show that significant seasonal patterns are observed in all VIs after the removal of view-illumination effects and cloud contamination. However, we demonstrate inconsistencies in the characteristics of seasonal patterns between different VIs and MODIS products. We demonstrate that differences in the original reflectance band values form a major source of discrepancy between MODIS VI products. The MAIAC atmospheric correction algorithm significantly reduces noise signals in the red and blue bands. Another important source of discrepancy is caused by differences in the availability of clear-sky data, as the MAIAC product allows increased availability of valid pixels in the equatorial Amazon. Finally, differences in VIs seasonal patterns were also caused by MODIS collection 5 calibration degradation. The correlation of remote sensing and field data also varied spatially, leading to different temporal offsets between VIs, active microwave and field measured data. We conclude that recent improvements in the MAIAC product have led to changes in the characteristics of spatio-temporal patterns of VIs seasonality across the Amazon forest, when compared to the MCD43 product. Nevertheless, despite improved quality and reduced uncertainties in the MAIAC product, a robust biophysical interpretation of VIs seasonality is still missing.

  4. Inundation and Gas Fluxes from Amazon Lakes and Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melack, J. M.; MacIntyre, S.; Forsberg, B. R.; Amaral, J. H.; Barbosa, P.

    2015-12-01

    Inundation areas and wetland habitats for the lowland Amazon basin derived remote sensing with synthetic aperture radar are combined with measurements of greenhouse gas evasion derived from field measurements and new formulations of atmosphere-water. On-going field studies in representative aquatic habitats on the central Amazon floodplain are combining monthly measurements of carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and fluxes to the atmosphere with deployment of meteorological sensors and high-resolution thermistors and optical dissolved oxygen sensors. A real-time cavity ringdown spectrometer is being used to determine the gas concentrations; vertical profiles were obtained by using an equilibrator to extract gases from water, and floating chambers are used to assess fluxes. Gas fluxes varied as a function of season, habitat and water depth. Greatest carbon dioxide fluxes occurred during high and falling water levels. During low water, periods with high chlorophyll, indicative of phytoplankton, the flux of carbon dioxide switched from being emitted from the lake to being taken-up by the lake some of the time. The highest pCO2 concentration (5500 μatm) was about three times higher than the median (1700 μatm). Higher CO2 fluxes were observed in open water than in areas with flooded or floating vegetation. In contrast, methane fluxes were higher in vegetated regions. We measured turbulence as rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy based on microstructure profiling. Comparison of these measurements with those calculated from meteorological and time series measurements validated new equations for turbulent kinetic energy dissipation (TKE) rates during moderate winds and cooling and illustrated that the highest dissipation rates occurred under heating. Measured gas exchange coefficients (k600) were similar to those based on the TKE dissipation rates and are well described using the surface renewal model. These k values are several times higher than

  5. Consistency of vegetation index seasonality across the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Wagner, Fabien; Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Wang, Yujie; Chave, Jérôme; Mõttus, Matti; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio

    2016-10-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) calculated from remotely sensed reflectance are widely used tools for characterizing the extent and status of vegetated areas. Recently, however, their capability to monitor the Amazon forest phenology has been intensely scrutinized. In this study, we analyze the consistency of VIs seasonal patterns obtained from two MODIS products: the Collection 5 BRDF product (MCD43) and the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC). The spatio-temporal patterns of the VIs were also compared with field measured leaf litterfall, gross ecosystem productivity and active microwave data. Our results show that significant seasonal patterns are observed in all VIs after the removal of view-illumination effects and cloud contamination. However, we demonstrate inconsistencies in the characteristics of seasonal patterns between different VIs and MODIS products. We demonstrate that differences in the original reflectance band values form a major source of discrepancy between MODIS VI products. The MAIAC atmospheric correction algorithm significantly reduces noise signals in the red and blue bands. Another important source of discrepancy is caused by differences in the availability of clear-sky data, as the MAIAC product allows increased availability of valid pixels in the equatorial Amazon. Finally, differences in VIs seasonal patterns were also caused by MODIS collection 5 calibration degradation. The correlation of remote sensing and field data also varied spatially, leading to different temporal offsets between VIs, active microwave and field measured data. We conclude that recent improvements in the MAIAC product have led to changes in the characteristics of spatio-temporal patterns of VIs seasonality across the Amazon forest, when compared to the MCD43 product. Nevertheless, despite improved quality and reduced uncertainties in the MAIAC product, a robust biophysical interpretation of VIs seasonality is still missing.

  6. Key to Plecoptera nymphs from the Brazilian Amazon (Insecta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, José Moacir Ferreira; Gorayeb, Inocêncio DE Sousa

    2016-12-19

    Nymphs of 22 species of Plecoptera from the Brazilian Amazon are keyed and illustrated to enhance their usefulness as water quality indicator taxa. Four described species of Anacroneuria, two species of Macrogynoplax, and two species of Enderleina have been associated with adults: Anacroneuria marlieri, A. manauensis, A. minuta, A. singularis, M. delicata, M. pulchra, E. froehlichi, and E. flinti. Nymphs of 14 additional morphospecies not yet associated with adults are included. Characters of the head, pronotum, mesonotum, and metanotum are used to distinguish late instar nymphs.

  7. Roads Investments, Spatial Intensification and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Walker, Robert; Aldrich, Steven; Caldas, Marcellus; Reis, Eustaquio; Perz, Stephen; Bohrer, Claudio; Arima, Eugenio; Laurance, William; hide

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.

  8. Oil Extraction and Indigenous Livelihoods in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozigar, Matthew; Gray, Clark L; Bilsborrow, Richard E

    2016-02-01

    Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenous households with varying degrees of exposure to oil extraction. Fixed and random effects regression models of the consequences of oil activities for livelihood outcomes reveal mixed and multidimensional effects. These results challenge common assumptions about these processes and are only partly consistent with hypotheses drawn from the Dutch disease literature.

  9. Cloacolith in a blue-fronted amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufrère, Hugues; Nevarez, Javier; Tully, Thomas N

    2010-06-01

    A 4-year-old blue-fronted Amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva) was admitted for vocalization secondary to constipation. Saline infusion cloacoscopy revealed the presence of a 2-cm-diameter cloacolith within the coprodeum that was obstructing the rectal opening. The cloacolith was fragmented with a pair of biopsy forceps and the pieces removed. The cloacolith was subsequently analyzed and was composed of 100% uric acid salts. The bird improved completely and was able to defecate normally after the procedure. Cloacoliths are relative uncommon cloacal conditions, and this case documents cloacoscopic findings, rectal obstruction, and confirmation of its uric acid composition by urolith analysis.

  10. Box: Natural Language Processing Research Using Amazon Web Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axelrod Amittai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a publicly-available state-of-the-art research and development platform for Machine Translation and Natural Language Processing that runs on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud. This provides a standardized research environment for all users, and enables perfect reproducibility and compatibility. Box also enables users to use their hardware budget to avoid the management and logistical overhead of maintaining a research lab, yet still participate in global research community with the same state-of-the-art tools.

  11. Analisis E-Bisnis terhadap Amazon dan Aquarelle

    OpenAIRE

    Tanuar, Evawaty; Yosanny, Agustinna

    2010-01-01

    The internet and digital world is one thing that needs to be taken into account by the Company. Business through Internet, known as e-business, is another way to increase the relation between company and customers or prospective customers. Analysis from the view point of customers and the integration of technologies was conducted on 2 examples sites that well known in doing online business but have different history on how it started the e-commerce. They are Amazon and Aquarelle. By comparing...

  12. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  13. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  14. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  15. Evolution in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Events of Precipitation in Northeast Region and Brazilian Amazon in XXI Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, P. M.; Veiga, J. A.; Correia, F. S.; Brito, A. L.

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this research was evaluate changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events of precipitation in Brazilian Amazon and Northeast Region, doubling CO2 concentration in agreement of IPCC A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2001). For this evaluation was used ETA model (Chou et al., 2011), forced with CCSM3 Global model data (Meehl, 2006) to run 4 experiments, only for January, February and March: 1980-1990, 2000-2010, 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. Using the first decade as reference (1980-1990), was evaluated changes occurred in following decades, with a methodology to classify extremes events adapted from Frich (2002) and Gao (2006). Higher was the class, more intense is the event. An increase of 25% was observed in total precipitation in Brazilian Amazon for the end of XXI century and 12% for extreme events type 1, 9% for events type 2 and 10% for type 3. By the other hand, a 17% decrease of precipitation in Brazilian Northeast was observed, and a pronounced decay of 24% and 15% in extreme events contribution type 1 and 2 to total amount of precipitation, respectively. The difference between total normal type events was positive in this three decades compared with reference decade 1980-1990, varying positively from 4 to 6 thousand events included in normality by decade, these events was decreased in your majority of Class 1 events, which presented a decay of at least 3.500 events by each decade. This suggests an intensification of extreme events, considering that the amount of precipitation by class increased, and the number of events by class decreased. To Northeast region, an increasing in 9% of contribution to events type 3 class was observed, as well as in the frequency of this type of events (about of 700 more events). Major decreasing in number of classes extreme events occur in 2000-2010, to classes 1 and 3, with 7,2 and 5,6%, and by the end of century in class 3, with 4,5%. For the three analyzed decades a total decrease of 8.400 events was

  16. Amazon rainforest responses to elevated CO2: Deriving model-based hypotheses for the AmazonFACE experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rammig, A.; Fleischer, K.; Lapola, D.; Holm, J.; Hoosbeek, M.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is assumed to have a stimulating effect ("CO2 fertilization effect") on forest growth and resilience. Empirical evidence, however, for the existence and strength of such a tropical CO2 fertilization effect is scarce and thus a major impediment for constraining the uncertainties in Earth System Model projections. The implications of the tropical CO2 effect are far-reaching, as it strongly influences the global carbon and water cycle, and hence future global climate. In the scope of the Amazon Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment, we addressed these uncertainties by assessing the CO2 fertilization effect at ecosystem scale. AmazonFACE is the first FACE experiment in an old-growth, highly diverse tropical rainforest. Here, we present a priori model-based hypotheses for the experiment derived from a set of 12 ecosystem models. Model simulations identified key uncertainties in our understanding of limiting processes and derived model-based hypotheses of expected ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 that can directly be tested during the experiment. Ambient model simulations compared satisfactorily with in-situ measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes, as well as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks. Models consistently predicted an increase in photosynthesis with elevated CO2, which declined over time due to developing limitations. The conversion of enhanced photosynthesis into biomass, and hence ecosystem carbon sequestration, varied strongly among the models due to different assumptions on nutrient limitation. Models with flexible allocation schemes consistently predicted an increased investment in belowground structures to alleviate nutrient limitation, in turn accelerating turnover rates of soil organic matter. The models diverged on the prediction for carbon accumulation after 10 years of elevated CO2, mainly due to contrasting assumptions in their phosphorus cycle representation. These differences define the expected

  17. Contributions of mobile, stationary and biogenic sources to air pollution in the Amazon rainforest: a numerical study with the WRF-Chem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Rafee, Sameh A.; Martins, Leila D.; Kawashima, Ana B.; Almeida, Daniela S.; Morais, Marcos V. B.; Souza, Rita V. A.; Oliveira, Maria B. L.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Urbina, Viviana; Freitas, Edmilson D.; Martin, Scot T.; Martins, Jorge A.

    2017-06-01

    This paper evaluates the contributions of the emissions from mobile, stationary and biogenic sources on air pollution in the Amazon rainforest by using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The analyzed air pollutants were CO, NOx, SO2, O3, PM2. 5, PM10 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Five scenarios were defined in order to evaluate the emissions by biogenic, mobile and stationary sources, as well as a future scenario to assess the potential air quality impact of doubled anthropogenic emissions. The stationary sources explain the highest concentrations for all air pollutants evaluated, except for CO, for which the mobile sources are predominant. The anthropogenic sources considered resulted an increasing in the spatial peak-temporal average concentrations of pollutants in 3 to 2780 times in relation to those with only biogenic sources. The future scenario showed an increase in the range of 3 to 62 % in average concentrations and 45 to 109 % in peak concentrations depending on the pollutant. In addition, the spatial distributions of the scenarios has shown that the air pollution plume from the city of Manaus is predominantly transported west and southwest, and it can reach hundreds of kilometers in length.

  18. Contributions of mobile, stationary and biogenic sources to air pollution in the Amazon rainforest: a numerical study with the WRF-Chem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Abou Rafee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the contributions of the emissions from mobile, stationary and biogenic sources on air pollution in the Amazon rainforest by using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem model. The analyzed air pollutants were CO, NOx, SO2, O3, PM2. 5, PM10 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs. Five scenarios were defined in order to evaluate the emissions by biogenic, mobile and stationary sources, as well as a future scenario to assess the potential air quality impact of doubled anthropogenic emissions. The stationary sources explain the highest concentrations for all air pollutants evaluated, except for CO, for which the mobile sources are predominant. The anthropogenic sources considered resulted an increasing in the spatial peak-temporal average concentrations of pollutants in 3 to 2780 times in relation to those with only biogenic sources. The future scenario showed an increase in the range of 3 to 62 % in average concentrations and 45 to 109 % in peak concentrations depending on the pollutant. In addition, the spatial distributions of the scenarios has shown that the air pollution plume from the city of Manaus is predominantly transported west and southwest, and it can reach hundreds of kilometers in length.

  19. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  20. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  1. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  2. Cloudiness over the Amazon rainforest: Meteorology and thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Miller, Mark A.; Trabachino, Lynne C.

    2016-07-01

    Comprehensive meteorological observations collected during GOAmazon2014/15 using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility no. 1 and assimilated observations from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are used to document the seasonal cycle of cloudiness, thermodynamics, and precipitation above the Amazon rainforest. The reversal of synoptic-scale vertical motions modulates the transition between the wet and dry seasons. Ascending moist air during the wet season originates near the surface of the Atlantic Ocean and is advected into the Amazon rainforest, where it experiences convergence and, ultimately, precipitates. The dry season is characterized by weaker winds and synoptic-scale subsidence with little or no moisture convergence accompanying moisture advection. This combination results in the drying of the midtroposphere during June through October as indicated by a decrease in liquid water path, integrated water, and the vertical profile of water vapor mixing ratio. The vertical profile of cloud fraction exhibits a relatively consistent decline in cloud fraction from the lifting condensation level (LCL) to the freezing level where a minimum is observed, unlike many other tropical regions. Coefficients of determination between the LCL and cloud fractional coverage suggest a relatively robust relationship between the LCL and cloudiness beneath 5 km during the dry season (R2 = 0.42) but a weak relationship during the wet season (0.12).

  3. Water stress detection in the Amazon using radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Paget, Aaron; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Bittencourt, Paulo R. L.; Barros, Fernanda de V.; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-07-01

    The Amazon rainforest plays an important role in the global water and carbon cycle, and though it is predicted to continue drying in the future, the effect of drought remains uncertain. Developments in remote sensing missions now facilitate large-scale observations. The RapidScat scatterometer (Ku band) mounted on the International Space Station observes the Earth in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit, which allows for studying changes in the diurnal cycle of radar backscatter over the Amazon. Diurnal cycles in backscatter are significantly affected by the state of the canopy, especially during periods of increased water stress. We use RapidScat backscatter time series and water deficit measurements from dendrometers in 20 trees during a 9 month period to relate variations in backscatter to increased tree water deficit. Morning radar bacskcatter dropped significantly with increased tree water deficit measured with dendrometers. This provides unique observational evidence that demonstrates the sensitivity of radar backscatter to vegetation water stress, highlighting the potential of drought detection and monitoring using radar.

  4. Preliminary data on atmospheric aerosol of the Amazon basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orsini, C.M.Q.; Artaxo Netto, P.E.; Tabacniks, M.H.

    1981-10-01

    Preliminary distributions of the trace-elements Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V and Fe in the atmospheric aerosol of the Amazon Basin have been determined through samples collected from August 23 to September 2 of 1980, at a remote place located in the Amazon Forest, about 30 km NE of the city of Manaus. In all, 10 complete cascade impactors of 6-stage, Battelle model, have been exposed but only with 8 success, thus generating 48 samples. From these, 33 samples have been succesfully analyzed by the PIXE method (Particle Induced X-Ray Emission), using particle beam of the Pelletron Accelerator of the University of Sao Paulo, and the results revealed that the trace-elements S and K have a noticeable predominance, mainly as fine particle size, relative to the others. The high correlation factor found between the fine particle concentrations of S and K (0,96) support the assumption of their common airbone transport on the same particulates, originated from the gas-to-particle conversion of gases exuded by the trees of the forest, their only existing sources. Coarse airborne particles, of a probable soil origin, are also present but in unusually small amounts, as it was revelead by the Al, Si, Ca, Ti and Fe size distribution curves. (Author) [pt

  5. Weather forecasting for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Ramos da Silva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The OLAM model has as its characteristics the advantage to represent simultaneously the global and regional meteorological phenomena using the application of a grid refinement scheme. During the REMAM project the model was applied for a few case studies to evaluate its performance on numerical weather prediction for the eastern Amazon region. Case studies were performed for the twelve months of the year of 2009. The model results for those numerical experiments were compared with the observed data for the region of study. Precipitation data analysis showed that OLAM is able to represent the average mean accumulated precipitation and the seasonal features of the events occurrence, but can't predict the local total amount of precipitation. However, individual evaluation for a few cases had shown that OLAM was able to represent the dynamics and forecast a few days in advance the development of coastal meteorological systems such as the squall lines that are one of the most important precipitating systems of the Amazon.

  6. Amazon rainforest modulation of water security in the Pantanal wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergier, Ivan; Assine, Mario L; McGlue, Michael M; Alho, Cleber J R; Silva, Aguinaldo; Guerreiro, Renato L; Carvalho, João C

    2018-04-01

    The Pantanal is a large wetland mainly located in Brazil, whose natural resources are important for local, regional and global economies. Many human activities in the region rely on Pantanal's ecosystem services including cattle breeding for beef production, professional and touristic fishing, and contemplative tourism. The conservation of natural resources and ecosystems services provided by the Pantanal wetland must consider strategies for water security. We explored precipitation data from 1926 to 2016 provided by a regional network of rain gauge stations managed by the Brazilian Government. A timeseries obtained by dividing the monthly accumulated-rainfall by the number of rainy days indicated a positive trend of the mean rate of rainy days (mm/day) for the studied period in all seasons. We assessed the linkage of Pantanal's rainfall patterns with large-scale climate data in South America provided by NOAA/ESRL from 1949 to 2016. Analysis of spatiotemporal correlation maps indicated that, in agreement with previous studies, the Amazon biome plays a significant role in controlling summer rainfall in the Pantanal. Based on these spatiotemporal maps, a multi-linear regression model was built to predict the mean rate of summer rainy days in Pantanal by 2100, relative to the 1961-1990 mean reference. We found that the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest has profound implications for water security and the conservation of Pantanal's ecosystem services. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Transfer of trace elements in the Amazon basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraz, E.S.B.; Tuon, R.L.; Fernandes, E.A.N.

    1991-01-01

    The Amazon basin is the world's largest system both in terms of drainage area, 7x10 6 km 2 , and sediment discharge, about 1.3x10 9 tons of solid suspended material each year. It is located at northern South America in the equatorial zone, extending through nine countries, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Surinam, French Guyana, and Brazil, where is the majority (70%) of the total area. The Amazon basin is geologically limited in the west by the Andes Cordillera, in the south by the Brazilian altiplain, in the north by the Guyana mountains and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. It is the most fabulous natural ecosystem of the world, remaining in a perfect state of equilibrium, not yet deeply studied. The development of mathematic models describing its dynamics is very important for its comprehension and preservation. Trace elements, in special the rare earth elements, can be useful to elaborate such models. Several processes in rivers and estuaries have been investigated through the use of REEs as tracers, addressing the riverine input of elements to the oceans from continents. Trace elements were also used to elaborate a model for chemical exchange from the water to the sediments and the subsequent release from the sediments into the water. (5 refs., 6 figs.)

  8. Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

    2010-06-01

    A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

  9. Dusty air masses transport between Amazon Basin and Caribbean Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euphrasie-Clotilde, Lovely; Molinie, Jack; Prospero, Joseph; Feuillard, Tony; Brute, Francenor; Jeannot, Alexis

    2015-04-01

    Depend on the month, African desert dust affect different parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. From December to April, Saharan dust outbreaks are often reported over the amazon basin and from May to November over the Caribbean islands and the southern regions of USA. This annual oscillation of Saharan dust presence, related to the ITCZ position, is perturbed some time, during March. Indeed, over Guadeloupe, the air quality network observed between 2007 and 2012 several dust events during March. In this paper, using HISPLIT back trajectories, we analyzed air masses trajectories for March dust events observed in Guadeloupe, from 2007 to 2012.We observed that the high pressure positions over the Atlantic Ocean allow the transport of dusty air masses from southern region of West Africa to the Caribbean Sea with a path crossing close to coastal region of French Guyana. Complementary investigations including the relationship between PM10 concentrations recorded in two sites Pointe-a-Pitre in the Caribbean, and Cayenne in French Guyana, have been done. Moreover we focus on the mean delay observed between the times arrival. All the results show a link between pathway of dusty air masses present over amazon basin and over the Caribbean region during several event of March. The next step will be the comparison of mineral dust composition for this particular month.

  10. Neogene sharks and rays from the Brazilian 'Blue Amazon'.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orangel Aguilera

    Full Text Available The lower Miocene Pirabas Formation in the North of Brazil was deposited under influence of the proto-Amazon River and is characterized by large changes in the ecological niches from the early Miocene onwards. To evaluate these ecological changes, the elasmobranch fauna of the fully marine, carbonate-rich beds was investigated. A diverse fauna with 24 taxa of sharks and rays was identified with the dominant groups being carcharhiniforms and myliobatiforms. This faunal composition is similar to other early Miocene assemblages from the proto-Carribbean bioprovince. However, the Pirabas Formation has unique features compared to the other localities; being the only Neogene fossil fish assemblage described from the Atlantic coast of Tropical Americas. Phosphate oxygen isotope composition of elasmobranch teeth served as proxies for paleotemperatures and paleoecology. The data are compatible with a predominantly tropical marine setting with recognized inshore and offshore habitats with some probable depth preferences (e.g., Aetomylaeus groups. Paleohabitat of taxa particularly found in the Neogene of the Americas (†Carcharhinus ackermannii, †Aetomylaeus cubensis are estimated to have been principally coastal and shallow waters. Larger variation among the few analyzed modern selachians reflects a larger range for the isotopic composition of recent seawater compared to the early Miocene. This probably links to an increased influence of the Amazon River in the coastal regions during the Holocene.

  11. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  12. Web quality control for lectures: Supercourse and Amazon.com.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Faina; LaPorte, Ronald; Lovalekar, Mita; Dodani, Sunita

    2005-12-01

    Peer review has been at the corner stone of quality control of the biomedical journals in the past 300 years. With the emergency of the Internet, new models of quality control and peer review are emerging. However, such models are poorly investigated. We would argue that the popular system of quality control used in Amazon.com offers a way to ensure continuous quality improvement in the area of research communications on the Internet. Such system is providing an interesting alternative to the traditional peer review approaches used in the biomedical journals and challenges the traditional paradigms of scientific publishing. This idea is being explored in the context of Supercourse, a library of 2,350 prevention lectures, shared for free by faculty members from over 150 countries. Supercourse is successfully utilizing quality control approaches that are similar to Amazon.com model. Clearly, the existing approaches and emerging alternatives for quality control in scientific communications needs to be assessed scientifically. Rapid explosion of internet technologies could be leveraged to produce better, more cost effective systems for quality control in the biomedical publications and across all sciences.

  13. Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

    2014-01-01

    We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

  14. Malaria diagnosis under field conditions in the Venezuelan Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, W G; Vivas-Martínez, S; Rodriguez, I; Gonçalves, J; Bongard, E; Fanello, C I; Vivas, L; Magris, M

    2008-01-01

    To improve practical, accurate diagnosis of malaria in the Amazon rainforest of Venezuela, two rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) (OptiMAL-IT) and FalciVax) and a laboratory light microscope, used in the field with a battery-operated head lamp as an external light source, were evaluated against the standard laboratory microscope procedure for malaria detection. One hundred and thirty-six Yanomami patients were studied for the presence of malaria parasites. Thirty-three patients (24%) were positive for malaria (Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae). Twenty-one (64%) of the positive patients had <100 parasites/microl. Both RDTs showed poor sensitivity (24.2% for OptiMAL-IT) and 36.4% for FalciVax) but good specificity (99% both for OptiMAL-IT) and FalciVax). Field and laboratory microscopy showed sensitivities of 94% and 91%, respectively. The kappa coefficient was 0.90, indicating a high agreement between field and laboratory microscopy. We conclude that (i) adequate slide reading cannot be substituted by either of the two RDTs in the Venezuelan Amazon and (ii) the use of a light source such as that described above makes slide reading more feasible than hitherto in remote areas without electricity.

  15. Simulating hydrologic and hydraulic processes throughout the Amazon River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beighley, R.E.; Eggert, K.G.; Dunne, T.; He, Y.; Gummadi, V.; Verdin, K.L.

    2009-01-01

    Presented here is a model framework based on a land surface topography that can be represented with various degrees of resolution and capable of providing representative channel/floodplain hydraulic characteristics on a daily to hourly scale. The framework integrates two models: (1) a water balance model (WBM) for the vertical fluxes and stores of water in and through the canopy and soil layers based on the conservation of mass and energy, and (2) a routing model for the horizontal routing of surface and subsurface runoff and channel and floodplain waters based on kinematic and diffusion wave methodologies. The WBM is driven by satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM_3B42) and air temperature (MOD08_M3). The model's use of an irregular computational grid is intended to facilitate parallel processing for applications to continental and global scales. Results are presented for the Amazon Basin over the period Jan 2001 through Dec 2005. The model is shown to capture annual runoff totals, annual peaks, seasonal patterns, and daily fluctuations over a range of spatial scales (>1, 000 to Amazon vary by approximately + /− 5 to 10 cm, and the fractional components accounting for these changes are: root zone soil moisture (20%), subsurface water being routed laterally to channels (40%) and channel/floodplain discharge (40%). Annual variability in monthly water storage changes by + /− 2·5 cm is likely due to 0·5 to 1 month variability in the arrival of significant rainfall periods throughout the basin.

  16. Pharmacokinetics of nebulized terbinafine in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots (Amazona ventralis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Lee C; Cox, Sherry K; Souza, Marcy J

    2012-09-01

    Aspergillosis is one of the most difficult diseases to treat successfully in avian species. Terbinafine hydrochloride offers numerous potential benefits over traditionally used antifungals for treatment of this disease. Adding nebulized antifungals to treatment strategies is thought to improve clinical outcomes in lung diseases. To determine plasma concentrations of terbinafine after nebulization, 6 adult Hispaniolan Amazon parrots were randomly divided into 2 groups of 3. Each bird was nebulized for 15 minutes with 1 of 2 terbinafine solutions, one made with a crushed tablet and the second with raw drug powder. Blood samples were collected at baseline and at multiple time points up to 720 minutes after completing nebulization. Plasma and nebulization solutions were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. The terbinafine concentration of the solution made with a crushed tablet (0.87 +/- 0.05 mg/mL) was significantly lower than was that made with raw powder (1.02 +/- 0.09 mg/mL). Plasma concentrations of terbinafine did not differ significantly between birds in the 2 groups. Plasma terbinafine concentrations in birds were maintained above in vitro minimum inhibitory concentrations for approximately 1 hour in birds nebulized with the crushed tablet solution and 4 hours in birds nebulized with the raw powder solution. Higher concentrations of solution, longer nebulization periods, or more frequent administration are likely needed to reach therapeutic plasma concentrations of terbinafine for clinically relevant periods in Hispaniolan Amazon parrots.

  17. Branchial cysts in two Amazon parrots (Amazona species).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufrère, Hugues; Castillo-Alcala, Fernanda; Holmberg, David L; Boston, Sarah; Smith, Dale A; Taylor, W Michael

    2010-03-01

    A 37-year-old yellow-crowned Amazon parrot (Amazona ochrocephala) and a 20-year-old red-lored Amazon parrot (Amazona autumnalis) each presented with a large mass localized on the lateral neck. With the first bird, there was no evidence of signs of pain or discomfort, and the bird prehended and swallowed food normally. The second bird showed signs of mild upper-gastrointestinal discomfort. Results of an ultrasound examination and aspiration of the mass on each bird revealed a cystic structure. A computed tomography performed on the second bird revealed a large polycystic mass connected to the pharynx by a lateral tract. During surgical resection, both masses were found to originate from the subpharyngeal area. Based on topography and the histopathologic and immunohistochemical results, the masses were determined to be a second branchial cleft cyst for the first case and a second branchial pouch cyst for the second case. In addition, a carcinoma was present in situ within the epithelium of case 1, and the cyst in case 2 was secondarily infected. Branchial cysts are uncommonly diagnosed in veterinary and human medicine. These 2 cases are the first documented in parrots and appear similar to second branchial cysts reported in adult humans.

  18. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  19. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  20. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  1. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  2. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.

    2015-08-01

    We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the southern Amazon during June-November. The relationship between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and southern Amazon fires (r = 0.61, p forests.

  3. Dampak Peningkatan Kepuasan Pelanggan dalam Proses Bisnis E-Commerce pada Perusahaan Amazon.com

    OpenAIRE

    I Gusti Made Karmawan

    2014-01-01

    The Purpose of writing is to describe the impact of increased customer satisfaction in the business process of e-commerce at Amazon.com and analyzed e-commerce strategies used in the company.The Benefits are to get an overview of the strategies in the Amazon.com for improving customer satisfaction and the impact of increased satisfaction. The method of writing is conducting reviews of existing sources to gain an overview strategy and business processes e-commerce at Amazon.com. The paper resu...

  4. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  5. Comparing a Carbon Budget for the Amazon Basin Derived from Aircraft Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, V. Y.; Dayalu, A.; Wofsy, S. C.; Gerbig, C.

    2015-12-01

    We present and compare a carbon budget for the Brazilian Amazon Basin based on the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) aircraft program, which occurred in November 2008 & May 2009, to other published carbon budgets. In particular, we compare our budget and analysis to others also derived from aircraft observations. Using mesoscale meteorological fields from ECMWF and WRF, we drive the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model and couple the footprint, or influence, to a biosphere model represented by the Vegetation Photosynthesis Respiration Model (VPRM). Since it is the main driver for the VPRM, we use observed shortwave radiation from towers in Brazil and French Guyana to examine the modeled shortwave radiation data from GL 1.2 (a global radiation model based on GOES 8 visible imagery), ECMWF, and WRF to determine if there are any biases in the modeled shortwave radiation output. We use WRF-STILT and ECMWF-STILT, GL 1.2 shortwave radiation, temperature, and vegetation maps (IGBP and SYNMAP) updated by landuse scenarios modeled by Sim Amazonia 2 and Sim Brazil, to compute hourly a priori CO2 fluxes by calculating Gross Ecosystem Exchange and Respiration for the 4 significant vegetation types across two (wet and dry) seasons as defined by 10-years of averaged TRIMM precipitation data. SF6 from stations and aircraft observations are used to determine the anthropogenic CO2 background and the lateral boundary conditions are taken from CarbonTracker2013B. The BARCA aircraft mixing ratios are then used as a top down constraint in an inversion framework that solves for the parameters controlling the fluxes for each vegetation type. The inversion provides scaling factors for GEE and R for each vegetation type in each season. From there, we derive a budget for the Basin and compare/contrast with other published basinwide CO2 fluxes.

  6. The Impact of Rise of the Andes and Amazon Landscape Evolution on Diversification of Lowland terra-firme Forest Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Alexandre; Wilkinson, M. Justin

    2011-01-01

    . The youngest landsurfaces thus lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion away from a northerly orientation generally towards the east and an Atlantic Ocean outlet. The advance of megafans is best seen by the location of axial rivers such as the Orinoco and Mamore which lie against the cratonic margins furthest from the Andes, at the distal ends of major megafan ramparts. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. If this landscape-sequence scenario is accurate, it parallels the progressive younging of the passerine lineages. The bird DNA data appears to confirm strongly the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers--as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and thus probably as facilitaters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

  7. Dactylogyrids (Platyhelminthes, Monogenoidea) from the gills of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) from coastal rivers of the Oriental Amazon Basin: species of Urocleidoides and Constrictoanchoratus n. gen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, K D C; Rodrigues, A R O; Cunha, J-M; Domingues, M V

    2018-05-01

    Five species of Urocleidoides (one new) and two new species of Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. are described in this study. All were collected from the gills of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) captured in six localities of coastal rivers of the north-eastern sector the State of Pará (Oriental Amazon): Urocleidoides brasiliensis Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Urocleidoides bulbophallus n. sp.; Urocleidoides cuiabai Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Urocleidoides eremitus Kritsky, Thatcher & Boeger, 1986; Urocleidoides malabaricusi Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Constrictoanchoratus lemmyi n. gen. n. sp.; and Constrictoanchoratus ptilonophallus n. gen. n. sp. This is the first reported occurrence of the four previously described species of Urocleidoides parasitizing H. malabaricus from streams in the Oriental Amazon Basin. The analysis of voucher specimens of U. eremitus parasitizing the gills of H. malabaricus from the Upper Paraná River floodplain in the limits of States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, indicates that these specimens are members of a new species of Urocleidoides, described here as Urocleidoides paranae n. sp. Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. is proposed for the species with a male copulatory organ sclerotized, coiled, clockwise; ventral anchor with elongate superficial root, inconspicuous deep root; dorsal anchor with inconspicuous roots, and a constriction at the intersection between the shaft and the point. The host-parasite diversity scenario and host specificity of the species of Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. and Urocleidoides from the gills of H. malabaricus are also discussed in this study.

  8. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  9. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  10. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  11. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  12. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  13. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  14. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  15. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  16. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  17. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  18. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  19. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  20. Bacterial Biogeography across the Amazon River-Ocean Continuum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Doherty

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal patterns in microbial biodiversity across the Amazon river-ocean continuum were investigated along ∼675 km of the lower Amazon River mainstem, in the Tapajós River tributary, and in the plume and coastal ocean during low and high river discharge using amplicon sequencing of 16S rRNA genes in whole water and size-fractionated samples (0.2–2.0 μm and >2.0 μm. River communities varied among tributaries, but mainstem communities were spatially homogeneous and tracked seasonal changes in river discharge and co-varying factors. Co-occurrence network analysis identified strongly interconnected river assemblages during high (May and low (December discharge periods, and weakly interconnected transitional assemblages in September, suggesting that this system supports two seasonal microbial communities linked to river discharge. In contrast, plume communities showed little seasonal differences and instead varied spatially tracking salinity. However, salinity explained only a small fraction of community variability, and plume communities in blooms of diatom-diazotroph assemblages were strikingly different than those in other high salinity plume samples. This suggests that while salinity physically structures plumes through buoyancy and mixing, the composition of plume-specific communities is controlled by other factors including nutrients, phytoplankton community composition, and dissolved organic matter chemistry. Co-occurrence networks identified interconnected assemblages associated with the highly productive low salinity near-shore region, diatom-diazotroph blooms, and the plume edge region, and weakly interconnected assemblages in high salinity regions. This suggests that the plume supports a transitional community influenced by immigration of ocean bacteria from the plume edge, and by species sorting as these communities adapt to local environmental conditions. Few studies have explored patterns of microbial diversity in

  1. LBA-ECO LC-15 Aerodynamic Roughness Maps of Vegetation Canopies, Amazon Basin: 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set, LBA-ECO LC-15 Aerodynamic Roughness Maps of Vegetation Canopies, Amazon Basin: 2000, provides physical roughness maps of vegetation canopies in the...

  2. LBA-ECO LC-01 Hydrography, Morphology, Edaphology Maps, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides map images of hydrographic, morphologic, and edaphic features for the northern Amazon Basin in eastern Ecuador. The hydrographic data are...

  3. LBA-ECO LC-01 Topographic Data for Intensive Study Areas, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains topographic/geomorphological data associated with the four Intensive Study Areas (ISAs) in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (northern...

  4. LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set, LBA-ECO LC-01 SRTM 90-Meter Digital Elevation Model, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, provides 90-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model data used in the...

  5. LBA-ECO LC-01 City, Community, and Road Maps, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: 1990-2002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the boundaries of the four major cities in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, the locations of primary communities in the colonist settlement...

  6. LBA-ECO LC-01 Topographic Data for Intensive Study Areas, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains topographic/geomorphological data associated with the four Intensive Study Areas (ISAs) in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (northern Oriente)...

  7. LBA-ECO LC-01 City, Community, and Road Maps, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: 1990-2002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the boundaries of the four major cities in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, the locations of primary communities in the colonist...

  8. LBA-ECO LC-01 Hydrography, Morphology, Edaphology Maps, Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides map images of hydrographic, morphologic, and edaphic features for the northern Amazon Basin in eastern Ecuador. The hydrographic...

  9. LBA-ECO LC-07 Wetland Extent, Vegetation, and Inundation: Lowland Amazon Basin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a map of wetland extent, vegetation type, and dual-season flooding state of the entire lowland Amazon basin. The map was derived from mosaics...

  10. LBA Regional Boundary for the Legal Amazon of Brazil, 8-km

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Legal Amazon of Brazil is defined by law to include the states of Acre, Amapa, Amazonas, Para, Rondonia, Roraima, Mato Grosso, Maranhao, and Tocantins [Fundacao...

  11. LBA-ECO LC-03 Hypsography, Rivers, Roads, and DEM, Four Areas across Brazilian Amazon

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides four related spatial data products for four study areas across the Brazilian Amazon: Manaus, Amazonas; Tapajos National Forest, Para Western...

  12. From space and from the ground: determining forest dynamics in settlement projects in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diniz, F.H.; Kok, K.; Hott, H.C.; Hoogstra-Klein, M.A.; Arts, B.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been partially attributed to the establishment of settlement projects. Acknowledging the difficulties in quantifying the rate and patterns of deforestation, the objective of this paper is to determine forest dynamics (deforestation and reforestation) in

  13. Biomass energy for the economic sustain ability of isolated communities in the Amazon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lascio, Marco Alfredo di; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio V.; Marques, Ana Claudia S.

    1999-01-01

    This work evaluates the use of forestry biomass as energy source for dispersed communities in the Amazon region. The photovoltaic alternative is also presented, including the experience obtained with two demonstration photovoltaic installations in the state of Rondonia, Brazil

  14. The Amazon River’s Ecosystem: Where Land Meets the Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ward, Nicholas; Sawakuchi, Henrique; Richey, Jeffrey

    2018-01-18

    What happens to plant matter on its journey down the Amazon River to the Atlantic Ocean? One research group investigated the region where river and ocean meet to fill in this part of the story.

  15. The use of Amazon fungus ( Trametes sp.) in the production of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The use of Amazon fungus (Trametes sp.) in the production of cellulase and xylanase. Salony Aquino Pereira, Rafael Lopes e Oliveira, Sergio Duvoisin Jr, Leonor Alves de Oliveira da Silva, Patrícia Melchionna Albuquerque ...

  16. From conflict to cooperation : international policies to protect the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.

    1998-01-01

    When environmental degradation in a particular country has international consequences, a dilemma arises: how to find effective policies which address the causes and take domestic sensitivities into account? This article analyzes the Brazilian Amazon, where international concern over deforestation

  17. The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

    2006-12-01

    Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

  18. Amazon Molly, Poecilia formosa, as a model for studies of the effects of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodhead, A.D.; Setlow, R.B.; Hart, R.W.

    1977-01-01

    It is suggested that the viviparous teleost, Poecilia formosa, (Amazon molly) may have wide potential use for aquatic radiation studies. The Amazon molly is a naturally occurring gynogenetic species, in which the eggs are activated after mating with the males of closely related species, without the subsequent genetic contribution from the male. The offspring of a single original female constitute a clone, having identical genotypes. Clones of the genetically homogeneous Amazon molly may prove to be equally as valuable to aquatic radiobiologists as the inbred rodent lines have been to mammalian studies. In many other respects the Amazon molly is a satisfactory laboratory animal. It is robust, easy to rear, and has large broods of young when fully grown. Maintenance costs are low. Details are given of the conditions under which colonies reproduce

  19. How Do Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures Influence the Seasonal Distribution of Precipitation in the Equatorial Amazon?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.; Chen, Mingxuan; Wang, Hui

    2001-10-01

    Although the correlation between precipitation over tropical South America and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Pacific and Atlantic has been documented since the early twentieth century, the impact of each ocean on the timing and intensity of the wet season over tropical South America and the underlying mechanisms have remained unclear. Numerical experiments have been conducted using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model Version 3 to explore these impacts. The results suggest the following.1)Seasonality of SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic has an important influence on precipitation in the eastern Amazon during the equinox seasons. The eastern side of the Amazon is influenced both by the direct thermal circulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and by Rossby waves. These processes are enhanced by the seasonal cycles of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. SSTs affect Amazon precipitation much less during the solstice seasons and in the western Amazon.2)The seasonality of SSTs in the Atlantic more strongly affects Amazon rainfall than does that of the Pacific. Without the former, austral spring in the eastern equatorial Amazon would be a wet season, rather than the observed dry season. As a consequence of the lag at that time of the southward seasonal migration of the Atlantic SSTs behind that of the insolation, the Atlantic ITCZ centers itself near 10°N, instead of at the equator, imposing subsidence and low-level anticyclonic flow over the eastern equatorial Amazon, thus drying the air above the planetary boundary layer and reducing the low-level moisture convergence. Consequently, convection in the eastern Amazon is suppressed despite strong surface heating.3)Seasonality of the SSTs in the tropical Pacific also tends to reduce precipitation in the eastern Amazon during both spring and fall. In spring, subsidence is enhanced not only through a zonal direct circulation, but also through

  20. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  1. Input of particulate organic and dissolved inorganic carbon from the Amazon to the Atlantic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Druffel, E. R. M; Bauer, J. E; Griffin, S.

    2005-01-01

    We report concentrations and isotope measurements (radiocarbon and stable carbon) of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) in waters collected from the mouth of the Amazon River and the North Brazil Current. Samples were collected in November 1991, when the Amazon hydrograph was at its annual minimum and the North Brazil Current had retroflected into the equatorial North Atlantic. The DIC Δ14C results revealed postbomb carbon in river and ocean waters...

  2. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Manz, B.; Rosas, C. V.; Willems, P.; Lavado-Casimiro, W.; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-01-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming...

  3. Synergy between land use and climate change increases future risk in Amazon forests

    OpenAIRE

    Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Pereira, José Miguel Cardoso; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest’s future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climatedriven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and ...

  4. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    OpenAIRE

    B. Cook; N. Zeng; J.-H. Yoon

    2010-01-01

    Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest...

  5. Datový sklad v prostředí Amazon Web Services

    OpenAIRE

    Kuželka, Kryštof

    2015-01-01

    The primary objective of this work is to investigate the potential of utilizing Hadoop and Amazon Redshift in the Amazon Web Services ("AWS") cloud, in order to design and implement a data warehouse, the efficacy of which will be tested afterwards. Contributions of this work include: documenting the technologies in the AWS cloud in Czech, demonstration of the design and performance tests of the data warehouse and the ETL part. Another considerable benefit is the added value to the company for...

  6. Utvärdering av Amazon Machine Learning för taggsystem

    OpenAIRE

    Madosh, Farzana; Lundsten, Erik

    2017-01-01

    How companies deal with machine learning is currently a highly-discussed topic, as it can facilitate corporate manual work by training computers to recognize patterns and thus automate the working procedure. However, this requires resources and knowledge in the field. As a result, various companies like Amazon and Google provide machine learning services without requiring the user to have deep knowledge in the area. This study evaluates Amazon Machine Learning program for a tag system with da...

  7. The Battle for Critical Internet Resources: South America vs. Amazon.com, Inc.

    OpenAIRE

    Patricia Vargas-Leon; Andreas Kuehn

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – To analyze the controversy about the allocation of critical Internet resources generated by ICANN's new gTLD program with a particular focus on the .AMAZON TLD. Methodology/approach/design – This article presents an exploratory case study about the .AMAZON controversy. The initial analysis of this ongoing research is based on data collected from various reports and media coverage on ICANN's new gTLD policy. The article draws from political economy theory to analyze disputes about...

  8. Effects of environmental change on malaria in the Amazon region of Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Takken, W.; Tarso Vilarinhos, de, P.; Schneider, P.; Santos, dos, F.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is endemic in Brazil, affecting mostly the Amazon states. Whereas 50 years ago good progress was made towards its control, since the opening up of the Amazon region for forestry, agriculture and livestock activities, the disease has rapidly increased in incidence, peaking to >500,000 cases annually in the 1990s. Rondônia state was particularly hard hit, with thousands of new immigrants suffering malaria attacks. It is argued that the environmental change caused by deforestation has...

  9. Towards the integration of StoRM on Amazon Simple Storage Service (S3)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreozzi, S; Magnoni, L; Zappi, R [INFN-CNAF, Viale Carlo Berti Pichat, 6/2, 40127, Bologna (Italy)], E-mail: sergio.andreozzi@cnaf.infn.it, E-mail: luca.magnoni@cnaf.infn.it, E-mail: riccardo.zappi@cnaf.infn.it

    2008-07-15

    In Grid systems, a core resource being shared among geographically-dispersed communities of users is the storage. For this resource, a standard interface specification (Storage Resource Management or SRM) was defined and is being evolved in the context of the Open Grid Forum. By implementing this interface, all storage resources part of a Grid could be managed in an homogenous fashion. In this work, we consider the extension of StoRM (STOrage Resource Manager, an implementation of SRM v2.2) in order to integrate a new type of storage resource: the Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3). Amazon S3 is a simple Web services interface offering access to the same highly scalable, reliable, fast, inexpensive data storage infrastructure that Amazon uses to run its own global network of Web sites. By performing this integration, we offer to the Grid community the capability to manage and access an incredible amount of storage resources freeing them from considering the costs associated with server maintenance, or whether they have enough storage available. The characteristics of StoRM are suitable for a smooth integration with Amazon S3. In particular, StoRM is designed to be easily adapted to the underlying storage resource via a plug-in mechanism, therefore a new plugin for integration with the Amazon S3 Web Service will be written. As regards the access policies, StoRM translates the Grid authorization rules into the Amazon S3 ones and applies them to the Amazon Web Services identity.

  10. Poverty in the Brazilian Amazon: An Assessment of Poverty Focused on the State of Para

    OpenAIRE

    Verner, Dorte

    2004-01-01

    The states in the Brazilian Amazon have made progress in reducing poverty and improving social indicators in the last decade. Despite this progress, the poverty rate in the Amazon is among the highest in Brazil. As of 2000, rural poverty is the greatest challenge. In Par?, not only is the headcount poverty rate of 58.4 percent in rural areas more than 55 percent higher than headcount pover...

  11. Towards the integration of StoRM on Amazon Simple Storage Service (S3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreozzi, S; Magnoni, L; Zappi, R

    2008-01-01

    In Grid systems, a core resource being shared among geographically-dispersed communities of users is the storage. For this resource, a standard interface specification (Storage Resource Management or SRM) was defined and is being evolved in the context of the Open Grid Forum. By implementing this interface, all storage resources part of a Grid could be managed in an homogenous fashion. In this work, we consider the extension of StoRM (STOrage Resource Manager, an implementation of SRM v2.2) in order to integrate a new type of storage resource: the Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3). Amazon S3 is a simple Web services interface offering access to the same highly scalable, reliable, fast, inexpensive data storage infrastructure that Amazon uses to run its own global network of Web sites. By performing this integration, we offer to the Grid community the capability to manage and access an incredible amount of storage resources freeing them from considering the costs associated with server maintenance, or whether they have enough storage available. The characteristics of StoRM are suitable for a smooth integration with Amazon S3. In particular, StoRM is designed to be easily adapted to the underlying storage resource via a plug-in mechanism, therefore a new plugin for integration with the Amazon S3 Web Service will be written. As regards the access policies, StoRM translates the Grid authorization rules into the Amazon S3 ones and applies them to the Amazon Web Services identity

  12. Incorporating phylogenetic information for the definition of floristic districts in hyperdiverse Amazon forests: Implications for conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; ter Steege, Hans; Mogollón, Hugo; Ceron, Carlos; Palacios, Walter; Oleas, Nora; Fine, Paul V. A.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Using complementary metrics to evaluate phylogenetic diversity can facilitate the delimitation of floristic units and conservation priority areas. In this study, we describe the spatial patterns of phylogenetic alpha and beta diversity, phylogenetic endemism, and evolutionary distinctiveness of the hyperdiverse Ecuador Amazon forests and define priority areas for conservation. We established a network of 62 one‐hectare plots in terra firme forests of Ecuadorian Amazon. In these plots...

  13. Nuclear method applied in archaeological sites at the Amazon basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicoli, Ieda Gomes; Bernedo, Alfredo Victor Bellido; Latini, Rose Mary

    2002-01-01

    The aim of this work was to use the nuclear methodology to character pottery discovered inside archaeological sites recognized with circular earth structure in Acre State - Brazil which may contribute to the research in the reconstruction of part of the pre-history of the Amazonic Basin. The sites are located mainly in the Hydrographic Basin of High Purus River. Three of them were strategic chosen to collect the ceramics: Lobao, in Sena Madureira County at north; Alto Alegre in Rio Branco County at east and Xipamanu I, in Xapuri County at south. Neutron Activation Analysis in conjunction with multivariate statistical methods were used for the ceramic characterization and classification. An homogeneous group was established by all the sherds collected from Alto Alegre and was distinct from the other two groups analyzed. Some of the sherds collected from Xipamunu I appeared in Lobao's urns, probably because they had the same fabrication process. (author)

  14. Ideal sweetness of mixed juices from Amazon fruits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela De Grandi Castro Freitas

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ready-to-drink fruit juices represent a large share of the market and are an important target for product development. The mixture of fruits can bring about improvements to nutritional and sensory aspects of these beverages while making used of the wide variety of exotic fruits from the Amazon region. Therefore, it is necessary to select mixed fruits and determine their ideal sweetness according to consumer acceptance. Consumers in the city of Belém (Brazil evaluated five different concentrations of sugar using the just-about-right scale in two blends selected by preference ranking. For the cupuassu-acerola-açai blend, the optimum concentration of sugar was 9.5 g/100 mL, and for the soursop-camucamu-yellow mombin blend, it was 10.7 g/100 mL.

  15. Structural aspects of the atmospheric aerosol of the Amazon basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaxo Netto, P.E.; Orsini, C.M.Q.

    1982-01-01

    The results presented on this paper may be considered as complementary to the ones published on two previous papers about the natural atmospheric aerosol of the Amazon Basin, and the effects, on these physical-chemical systems of the large scale brushfires carried out from time to time on that region. The experiments have been performed in August-September, 1980, simultaneously to the ones of the 'Projeto Queimadas - 1980' promoted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research from the U.S.A.. The new results here in presented are size distribution concentration data as log-probability curves for the detected tracer-elements; from these curves, by introducing a new technique, is was possible to derive the corresponding log-normal curves. These last curves can be used conveniently to characterize the atmospheric aerosol system which is under investigation. (Author) [pt

  16. Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

    2011-12-01

    Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient

  17. Lateritinga project: a geochemical orientation study for Amazon lateritic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, M.L. da

    1990-01-01

    The aim of this project is the development of systematic geochemical orientation survey in lateritic weathered terrain, like those form Amazon Region. The main selected targets (sheets) are: Turiacu, Cajuapara and Serra dos Carajas, with 690 samples collected (soils and lateritic rocks). For the Aurizona-Serra do Pirocaua target (Turiacu sheet), within the purpose of this work, 49 samples were collected in a 100x 200m regular grid. From all samples the fraction minor than 200 mesh was taken to analyses (by XRF, AA, OES, ICP and fire assay) for SiO sub(2), Fe sub(2) O sub(3), TiO sub(2), P sub(2) O sub(5), Sr, Ba, Y, Nb, Zr, Ga, Sc, Ni, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, V, As, Bi, Pt, Pd, Th, Au and REE, as well for their mineralogy by XRD. The chemical results were submitted to statistical treatment with the Geoquant-software for IBM-compatible microcomputer. (author)

  18. Mercury persistence in indoor environments in the Amazon region, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Wanderley Rodrigues; Fonseca, Márlon de Freitas; Pinto, Fernando Neves; Rebelo, Mauro de Freitas; dos Santos, Sérgio Silva; da Silveira, Ene Glória; Torres, João Paulo Machado; Malm, Olaf; Pfeiffer, Wolfgang Christian

    2004-10-01

    We evaluated the indoor atmospheric Hg contamination in gold trade shops in two Brazilian cities of the Legal Amazon area using the Spanish moss (Tillandsia usneoides, Bromeliaceae) as a sentinel species. Plants inside plastic cages were exposed to a controlled atmosphere to evaluate the rate of Hg retention over time and then distributed in several stores with different characteristics to enable a relative comparison. Hg concentrations were determined by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Plants exposed in active stores with good air circulation exhibited lower levels. Ex-gold trade shops that were kept closed for long periods exhibited higher values. Stores that have been restored before being transformed into new businesses exhibited lower values than nonrestored ones. Direct measurements suggest that indoor Hg air concentrations were below the threshold limit recommended by the World Health Organization to occupational exposure; nevertheless, restoring ex-gold trade shops could ensure a healthier working environment.

  19. Mercury persistence in indoor environments in the Amazon Region, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastos, W.R.; Freitas Fonseca, M. de; Pinto, F.N.; Freitas Rebelo, Mauro de; Silva dos Santos, Sergio; Gloria da Silveira, Ene; Torres, J.P.M.; Malm, Olaf; Pfeiffer, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We evaluated the indoor atmospheric Hg contamination in gold trade shops in two Brazilian cities of the Legal Amazon area using the Spanish moss (Tillandsia usneoides, Bromeliaceae) as a sentinel species. Plants inside plastic cages were exposed to a controlled atmosphere to evaluate the rate of Hg retention over time and then distributed in several stores with different characteristics to enable a relative comparison. Hg concentrations were determined by cold vapor atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Plants exposed in active stores with good air circulation exhibited lower levels. Ex-gold trade shops that were kept closed for long periods exhibited higher values. Stores that have been restored before being transformed into new businesses exhibited lower values than nonrestored ones. Direct measurements suggest that indoor Hg air concentrations were below the threshold limit recommended by the World Health Organization to occupational exposure; nevertheless, restoring ex-gold trade shops could ensure a healthier working environment

  20. Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Samuel

    2017-06-01

    Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

  1. Rhinovirus antibodies in an isolated Amazon Indian tribe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thwing, C J; Arruda, E; Vieira Filho, J P; Castelo Filho, A; Gwaltney, J M

    1993-06-01

    In early 1985, the Parakana-Apiterewa, a small, primitive Indian tribe, was contacted in the southern Amazon Basin. The tribe was thought to have been totally isolated from civilization until recent development of their land. Blood specimens were collected in 1985, shortly after the discovery of the tribe, and analyzed for the presence of rhinovirus-neutralizing antibody to nine different immunotypes. Six to forty-seven percent of the serum samples tested contained antibody to at least one immunotype of rhinovirus. The prevalence of rhinovirus antibody in the Parakana-Apiterewa Indians was similar to that reported in United States populations, suggesting that there had been considerable direct or indirect contact in the past between tribe members and persons in the outside world.

  2. Smoke Invigoration Versus Inhibition of Clouds over the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koren, Ilan; Martins, J. Vanderlei; Lorraine, A. Remer; Afargan, Hila

    2008-01-01

    The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is one of the most important and least understood aspects of human-induced climate change. Small changes in the amount of cloud coverage can produce a climate forcing equivalent in magnitude and opposite in sign to that caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and changes in cloud height can shift the effect of clouds from cooling to warming. Focusing on the Amazon, we show a smooth transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds: the microphysical and the radiative. We show how a feedback between the optical properties of aerosols and the cloud fraction can modify the aerosol forcing, changing the total radiative energy and redistributing it over the atmospheric column.

  3. Fatal toxoplasmosis in a vinaceous Amazon parrot (Amazona vinacea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Francisco Carlos; Donatti, Rogerio Venâncio; Marques, Marcus Vinícius Romero; Ecco, Roselene; Preis, Ingred Sales; Shivaprasad, H L; Vilela, Daniel Ambrózio da Rocha; Martins, Nelson Rodrigo da Silva

    2012-12-01

    Toxoplasmosis was diagnosed in a vinaceous Amazon parrot based on histopathology and immunohistochemistry. The bird was prostrate on the bottom of the cage and died. Necropsy revealed edema and congestion of the lungs, cloudy air sacs, and mild hepatomegaly. Histopathology revealed severe pulmonary congestion and edema and interstitial mononuclear cell inflammation associated with many cysts containing bradyzoites of Toxoplasma gondii scattered throughout. The heart had mild multifocal lymphocytic myocarditis and free tachyzoites in the muscle fibers, and the kidneys had mild interstitial nephritis and a few cysts containing bradyzoites of T. gondii. Immunohistochemistry was negative for Sarcocystis falcatula and Neospora caninum and confirmed the protozoa as T. gondii. This is the first description of T. gondii in an endangered species ofa Brazilian psittacine.

  4. The Amazon Hydroelectric Dams, an Internal Geopolitical Issue in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broggio, Celine; Droulers, Martine; Pallamar, Juan-Pablo

    2017-01-01

    This paper develops a geopolitical analysis of dams and hydroelectric plants in the Brazilian Amazon since the mid-2000's. The implementation of these projects has provoked tensions within the federal government under the presidency of the Workers' Party and accelerated the erosion of the ideological and political platform called 'socio-environmentalism', a situation that has led to the break-up of the coalition leading to the political crisis of 2016 and the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. From a regional point of view, the dispute occurred in very different terms in the case of the Madeira hydroelectric power stations (Santo Antonio and Jirau in Rondonia) and in the case of the Xingu dam (Belo Monte in Para), worldwide covered by the media

  5. Logging Concessions Enable Illegal Logging Crisis in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Sky, Melissa A. Blue; Pine, Justin

    2014-04-01

    The Peruvian Amazon is an important arena in global efforts to promote sustainable logging in the tropics. Despite recent efforts to achieve sustainability, such as provisions in the US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, illegal logging continues to plague the region. We present evidence that Peru's legal logging concession system is enabling the widespread illegal logging via the regulatory documents designed to ensure sustainable logging. Analyzing official government data, we found that 68.3% of all concessions supervised by authorities were suspected of major violations. Of the 609 total concessions, nearly 30% have been cancelled for violations and we expect this percentage to increase as investigations continue. Moreover, the nature of the violations indicate that the permits associated with legal concessions are used to harvest trees in unauthorized areas, thus threatening all forested areas. Many of the violations pertain to the illegal extraction of CITES-listed timber species outside authorized areas. These findings highlight the need for additional reforms.

  6. Logging concessions enable illegal logging crisis in the Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N; Sky, Melissa A Blue; Pine, Justin

    2014-04-17

    The Peruvian Amazon is an important arena in global efforts to promote sustainable logging in the tropics. Despite recent efforts to achieve sustainability, such as provisions in the US-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, illegal logging continues to plague the region. We present evidence that Peru's legal logging concession system is enabling the widespread illegal logging via the regulatory documents designed to ensure sustainable logging. Analyzing official government data, we found that 68.3% of all concessions supervised by authorities were suspected of major violations. Of the 609 total concessions, nearly 30% have been cancelled for violations and we expect this percentage to increase as investigations continue. Moreover, the nature of the violations indicate that the permits associated with legal concessions are used to harvest trees in unauthorized areas, thus threatening all forested areas. Many of the violations pertain to the illegal extraction of CITES-listed timber species outside authorized areas. These findings highlight the need for additional reforms.

  7. Exploring the Geomorphology of the Amazon's Planalto and Understanding the Origin of the Modern Amazon Basin with Imaging Radar:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, R.; McDonald, K. C.; Azarderakhsh, M.; Campbell, K.; Cracraft, J.; Carnaval, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazon basin is a biodiversity biome and plays a significant role into shaping the earth's climate, ocean and atmospheric gases. Understanding the history of the formation of the basin is essential to our understanding of the region's biodiversity loss and response to climate change. Ancient River channels in lowland Amazonia exhibit right angle branching structures as well as intricately intertwined channels. Past research has attributed these characteristic as a result of subsurface faults but makes it difficult to validate this augment due to dense vegetation and sedimentation. We seek to employ remote sensing techniques for examining geomorphological features and the relationship to evolutionary processes that shaped biodiversity in the modern Amazon River Basin. We utilize UAVSAR imagery gathered from the NASA/JPL airborne imaging radar over the Planalto, in the Madre de Dios region of Southeastern Peru in an assessment of the underlying geomorphology, its relationship to the current distribution of vegetation, and geologic processes through deep time. In the late Neogene, the Amazonian lowlands comprised either a series of independent basins or a single sedimentary basin. The Amazonian Planalto is variously described as either erosional surface or a surface of deposition. We employ UAVSAR data collection to assess (1) the utility of these radar data for use in identifying associated geomorphologic features, and (2) UAVSAR's utility in aiding interpretation of ALOS PALSAR and STRM datasets to support a basin-wide characterization. We derive maps of river networks using a canny based edge detection method applied on the UAVSAR backscatter images. We develop an algorithm, which separates the river networks into various catchments based on connected component and then calculates angles at each branch point. We then assess distribution of right angle branching structure throughout the entire region. The results of the analysis will have a major impact on

  8. Amazon River carbon dioxide outgassing fuelled by wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abril, Gwenaël; Martinez, Jean-Michel; Artigas, L Felipe; Moreira-Turcq, Patricia; Benedetti, Marc F; Vidal, Luciana; Meziane, Tarik; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Bernardes, Marcelo C; Savoye, Nicolas; Deborde, Jonathan; Souza, Edivaldo Lima; Albéric, Patrick; Landim de Souza, Marcelo F; Roland, Fabio

    2014-01-16

    River systems connect the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the ocean in the global carbon cycle. A recent estimate suggests that up to 3 petagrams of carbon per year could be emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from global inland waters, offsetting the carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. It is generally assumed that inland waters emit carbon that has been previously fixed upstream by land plant photosynthesis, then transferred to soils, and subsequently transported downstream in run-off. But at the scale of entire drainage basins, the lateral carbon fluxes carried by small rivers upstream do not account for all of the CO2 emitted from inundated areas downstream. Three-quarters of the world's flooded land consists of temporary wetlands, but the contribution of these productive ecosystems to the inland water carbon budget has been largely overlooked. Here we show that wetlands pump large amounts of atmospheric CO2 into river waters in the floodplains of the central Amazon. Flooded forests and floating vegetation export large amounts of carbon to river waters and the dissolved CO2 can be transported dozens to hundreds of kilometres downstream before being emitted. We estimate that Amazonian wetlands export half of their gross primary production to river waters as dissolved CO2 and organic carbon, compared with only a few per cent of gross primary production exported in upland (not flooded) ecosystems. Moreover, we suggest that wetland carbon export is potentially large enough to account for at least the 0.21 petagrams of carbon emitted per year as CO2 from the central Amazon River and its floodplains. Global carbon budgets should explicitly address temporary or vegetated flooded areas, because these ecosystems combine high aerial primary production with large, fast carbon export, potentially supporting a substantial fraction of CO2 evasion from inland waters.

  9. Long term atmospheric aerosol characterization in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artaxo, Paulo; Gerab, Fábio; Yamasoe, Marcia A.

    This chapter presents a characterization of atmospheric aerosols collected in different places in the Amazon Basin. Both the biogenic aerosol emission from the forest and the particulate material which is emitted to the atmosphere due to the large scale man-made burns during the dry season were studied. The samples were collected during a three year period at three different locations in the Amazon (Cuiabá, Alta Floresta and Serra do Navio), using stacked filter units. Aerosol samples were also collected directly over fires of cerrado vegetation and tropical primary forest burns The samples were analyzed using several techniques for a number of elements. Gravimetric analyses were used to determine the total atmospheric aerosol concentration. Multivariate statistical analysis was used in order to identify and characterize the sources of the atmospheric aerosol present in the sampled regions. Cerrado burning emissions were enriched compared to forest ones, specially for Cl, K and Zn. High atmospheric aerosol concentrations were observed in large amazonian areas due to emissions from man-made burns in the period from June to September. The emissions from burns dominate the fine fraction of the atmospheric aerosol with characteristic high contents of black carbon, S and K. Aerosols emitted in biomass burning process are correlated to the increase in the aerosol optical thickness of the atmosphere during the Amazonian dry season. The Serra do Navio aerosol is characterized by biogenic emissions with strong marine influence. The presence of trace elements characteristic of soil particulate associated with this marine contribution indicates the existence of aerosol transport from Africa to South America. Similar composition characteristics were observed in the biogenic emission aerosols from Serra do Navio and Alta Floresta.

  10. Ancestry informative markers in Amerindians from Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luizon, Marcelo Rizzatti; Mendes-Junior, Celso Teixeira; De Oliveira, Silviene Fabiana; Simões, Aguinaldo Luiz

    2008-01-01

    Ancestry informative markers (AIMs) are genetic loci with large frequency differences between the major ethnic groups and are very useful in admixture estimation. However, their frequencies are poorly known within South American indigenous populations, making it difficult to use them in admixture studies with Latin American populations, such as the trihybrid Brazilian population. To minimize this problem, the frequencies of the AIMs FY-null, RB2300, LPL, AT3-I/D, Sb19.3, APO, and PV92 were determined via PCR and PCR-RFLP in four tribes from Brazilian Amazon (Tikúna, Kashinawa, Baníwa, and Kanamarí), to evaluate their potential for discriminating indigenous populations from Europeans and Africans, as well as discriminating each tribe from the others. Although capable of differentiating tribes, as evidenced by the exact test of population differentiation, a neighbor-joining tree suggests that the AIMs are useless in obtaining reliable reconstructions of the biological relationships and evolutionary history that characterize the villages and tribes studied. The mean allele frequencies from these AIMs were very similar to those observed for North American natives. They discriminated Amerindians from Africans, but not from Europeans. On the other hand, the neighbor-joining dendrogram separated Africans and Europeans from Amerindians with a high statistical support (bootstrap = 0.989). The relatively low diversity (G(ST) = 0.042) among North American natives and Amerindians from Brazilian Amazon agrees with the lack of intra-ethnic variation previously reported for these markers. Despite genetic drift effects, the mean allelic frequencies herein presented could be used as Amerindian parental frequencies in admixture estimates in urban Brazilian populations. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  11. Guarana: revisiting a highly caffeinated plant from the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimpl, Flávia Camila; da Silva, José Ferreira; Gonçalves, José Francisco de Carvalho; Mazzafera, Paulo

    2013-10-28

    Guarana (Paullinia cupana Kunth var. sorbilis (Mart.) Ducke) has been traditionally consumed by indigenous communities of the Amazon region. It is valued mainly for its stimulant property because of its high content of caffeine, which can be up to 6% in the seeds. The purpose of this review is to revisit this typically Brazilian plant, addressing economic considerations, the chemical makeup of the seeds and pharmacological properties so far investigated. Guarana is primarily produced in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Bahia, and approximately 70% of the production is used by the industry of soft and energy drinks. The other 30% becomes guarana powder for direct consumption in capsules or dilution in water, or it serves as a raw material for the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries. In addition to its stimulant property, guarana has other therapeutic properties, which have aroused the interest of the scientific community. This review shows that other guarana properties may be explored and how scarce are the studies regarding agronomic, plant pathology, physiology and breeding. So far, caffeine has been the main reason to study guarana and still will lead the researches because the demand for this alkaloid by food and pharmaceutical industry, and a strongly growing market related with beauty products. However, guarana has other components and there is great interest in studies designed to elucidate the effects of guarana's bioactive components and their potential pharmacological applications. Significant part of the guarana production in Brazil still comes from Indians tribes in the Amazon State, and any improvement in this plant, in any aspect, may propitiate a positive economic impact in their lives. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Amazon Land Wars in the South of Para

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Cynthia S.; Walker, Robert T.; Arima, Eugenio Y.; Aldrich, Stephen P.; Caldas, Marcellus M.

    2007-01-01

    The South of Para, located in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, has become notorious for violent land struggle. Although land conflict has a long history in Brazil, and today impacts many parts of the country, violence is most severe and persistent here. The purpose of this article is to examine why. Specifically, we consider how a particular Amazonian place, the so-called South of Para has come to be known as Brazil's most dangerous badland. We begin by considering the predominant literature, which attributes land conflict to the frontier expansion process with intensified struggle emerging in the face of rising property values and demand for private property associated with capitalist development. From this discussion, we distill a concept of the frontier, based on notions of property rights evolution and locational rents. We then empirically test the persistence of place-based violence in the region, and assess the frontier movement through an analysis of transportation costs. The findings from the analyses indicate that the prevalent theorization of frontier violence in Amazonia does little to explain its persistent and pervasive nature in the South of Para. To fill this gap in understanding, we develop an explanation based the geographic conception of place, and we use contentious politics theory heuristically to elucidate the ways in which general processes interact with place specific history to engender a landscape of violence. In so doing, we focus on environmental, cognitive, and relational mechanisms (and implicated structures), and attempt to deploy them in an explanatory framework that allows direct observation of the accumulating layers of the region's tragic history. We end by placing our discussion within a political ecological context, and consider the implications of the Amazon Land War for the environment.

  13. Effect of fatty Amazon fish consumption on lipid metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisca das Chagas do Amaral Souza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of feeding diets enriched with fatty fish from the Amazon basin on lipid metabolism. METHODS: Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: control group treated with commercial chow; Mapará group was fed diet enriched with Hypophthalmus edentatus; Matrinxã group was fed diet enriched with Brycon spp.; and, Tambaqui group was fed diet enriched with Colossoma macropomum. Rats with approximately 240g±0.60 of body weight were fed ad libitum for 30 days, and then were sacrificed for collection of whole blood and tissues. RESULTS: The groups treated with enriched diets showed a significant reduction in body mass and lipogenesis in the epididymal and retroperitoneal adipose tissues and carcass when compared with the control group. However, lipogenesis in the liver showed an increase in Matrinxã group compared with the others groups. The levels of serum triglycerides in the treated groups with Amazonian fish were significantly lower than those of the control group. Moreover, total cholesterol concentration only decreased in the group Matrinxã. High Density Lipoprotein cholesterol levels increased significantly in the Mapará and Tambaqui compared with control group and Matrinxã group. The insulin and leptin levels increased significantly in all treatment groups. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that diets enriched with fatty fish from the Amazon basin changed the lipid metabolism by reducing serum triglycerides and increasing high density lipoprotein-cholesterol in rats fed with diets enriched with Mapará, Matrinxã, and Tambaqui.

  14. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  15. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Rammig, Anja

    2017-03-01

    Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

  16. Uranium geochemistry on the Amazon shelf: Evidence for uranium release from bottom sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKee, B.A.; DeMaster, D.J.; Nittrouer, C.A.

    1987-01-01

    In Amazon-shelf waters, as salinity increases to 36.5 x 10 -3 , dissolved uranium activities increase to a maximum of 4.60 dpm 1 -1 . This value is much higher than the open-ocean value (2.50 dpm 1 -1 ), indicating a source of dissolved uranium to shelf waters in addition to that supplied from open-ocean and riverine waters. Uranium activities are much lower for surface sediments in the Amazon-shelf sea bed (mean: 0.69 ± .09 dpm g -1 ) than for suspended sediments in the Amazon river (1.82 dpm g -1 ). Data suggest that the loss of particulate uranium from riverine sediments is probably the result of uranium desorption from the ferric-oxyhydroxide coatings on sediment particles, and/or uranium release by mobilization of the ferric oxyhydroxides. The total flux of dissolved 238 U from the Amazon shelf (about 1.2 x 10 15 dpm yr -1 ) constitutes about 15% of uranium input to the world ocean, commensurate to the Amazon River's contribution to world river-water discharge. Measurement of only the riverine flux of dissolved 238 U underestimates, by a factor of about 5, the flux of dissolved 238 U from the Amazon shelf to the open ocean

  17. Trading forests for yields in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Holly

    2012-03-01

    Our knowledge of how agriculture expands, and the types of land it replaces, is remarkably limited across the tropics. Most remote-sensing studies focus on the net gains and losses in forests and agricultural land rather than the land-use transition pathways (Gibbs et al 2010). Only a handful of studies identify land sources for new croplands or plantations, and then only for farming systems aggregated together (e.g., Koh and Wilcove 2008, Morton et al 2006, Gibbs et al 2010). Gutiérrez-Vélez et al (2011), however, have taken a leap forward by tracking the different expansion pathways for smallholder and industrial oil palm plantations. Using a combination of Landsat, MODIS and field surveys, they investigate whether higher yields in new agricultural lands spare forests in the Peruvian Amazon and in a smaller focus area in the Ucayali region. Across the Peruvian Amazon, they show that between 2000 and 2010, new high-yield oil palm plantations replaced forests 72% of the time and accounted for 1.3% of total deforestation, with most expansion occurring after 2006. Gutiérrez-Vélez et al went further in the Ucayali region and compared land sources for new high-yield and low-yield plantations. Expansion of higher-yield agricultural lands should logically reduce the total area needed for production, thus potentially sparing forests. In the Ucayali focus area, expansion of high-yield oil palm did convert less total land area but more forest was cleared than with low-yield expansion. Smaller-scale plantations tended to expand into already cleared areas while industrial-scale plantations traded their greater yields for forests, leading to higher land-clearing carbon emissions per production unit (Gibbs et al 2008). Gutiérrez-Vélez et al show that higher yields may require less land for production but more forest may be lost in the process, and they emphasize the need for stronger incentives for land sparing. The potential land-saving nature of these high

  18. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  19. Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point

    OpenAIRE

    Nepstad, Daniel C; Stickler, Claudia M; Filho, Britaldo Soares-; Merry, Frank

    2008-01-01

    Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest dieback. Rising worldwide demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions. For...

  20. ARSENIC, CADMIUM, CHROMIUM, LEAD, MERCURY, AND SELENIUM LEVELS IN BLOOD OF FOUR SPECIES OF TURTLES FROM THE AMAZON IN BRAZIL

    OpenAIRE

    Burger, Joanna; Jeitner, Christian; Schneider, Larissa; Vogt, Richard; Gochfeld, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Using blood as a method of assessing metal levels in turtles may be useful for populations that are threatened or endangered or are decreasing. In this study the levels of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), and selenium (Se) in blood of four species of turtles from the tributaries of the Rio Negro in the Amazon of Brazil were examined. The turtles included the six-tubercled Amazon (river) turtle (Podocnemis sextuberculata), red-headed Amazon (river) turtle (Po...

  1. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  2. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  3. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  4. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  5. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  6. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  7. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  8. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  9. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  10. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  11. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  12. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  13. Repeat-Pass Multi-Temporal Interferometric SAR Coherence Variations with Amazon Floodplain and Lake Habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H.; Alsdorf, D.

    2006-12-01

    Monitoring discharge in the main channels of rivers and upland tributaries as well as storage changes in floodplain lakes is necessary for understanding flooding hazards, methane production, sediment transport, and nutrient exchange. Interferometric processing of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data may enable hydrologists to detect environmental and ecological changes in hydrological systems over space and time. An aim of our experiments is to characterize interferometric SAR coherence variations that occur in Amazon aquatic habitats. We analyze coherence variations in JERS-1 data at three central Amazon sites; Lake Balbina, the Cabaliana floodplain, and the confluence of the Purus and Amazon rivers. Because radar pulse interactions with inundated vegetation typically follow a double-bounce travel path which returns energy to the antenna, coherence will vary with vegetation type, physical baseline, and temporal baseline. Balbina's vegetation consists mostly of forest and inundated trunks of dead, leafless trees as opposed to Cabaliana and Amazon- Purus (dominated by flooded forests), thus it serves to isolate the vegetation signal. Coherence variations with baselines were determined from 253 interferograms at Balbina, 210 at Calbaliana, and 153 at Purus. The average temporal and perpendicular baselines (mean std.) are 574 394 days and 1708 1159 m at Balbina, 637 435 days and 1381 981 m at Cabaliana, and 587 425 days and 1430 964 m at Purus. Balbina has a stronger coherence than either Cabaliana or Amazon-Purus. With results of Mann-Whitney statistical tests, Balbina has a difference between terre-firme and flooded coherence values plotted with perpendicular baseline but Cabaliana and Amazon-Purus do not show this difference. Balbina has a linearly decreasing trend in coherence plotted with temporal baseline whereas Cabaliana and Amazon-Purus have a steep drop-off, non- linear change. A strong annual periodicity is evident on power spectrums of the coherence values

  14. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  15. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  16. Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N; Pimm, Stuart L; Keane, Brian; Ross, Carl

    2008-08-13

    The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2) of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

  17. Oil and Gas Projects in the Western Amazon: Threats to Wilderness, Biodiversity, and Indigenous Peoples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Pimm, Stuart L.; Keane, Brian; Ross, Carl

    2008-01-01

    Background The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. Methodology/Principal Findings We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or “blocks” that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover ∼688,000 km2 of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. Conclusions/Significance Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories. PMID:18716679

  18. Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Finer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2 of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

  19. Implications of Scientific Collaboration Networks on Studies of Aquatic Vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero, María Celeste; Michalski, Fernanda

    2016-01-01

    The quantity of wildlife extracted from the Amazon has increased in the past decades as a consequence of an increase in human population density and income growth. To evaluate the spatial distribution of studies on subsistence and/or commercial hunting conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, we selected eight mid-sized and large-bodied aquatic vertebrate species with a history of human exploitation in the region. We used a combination of searches in the gray and scientific literature from the past 24 years to provide an updated distributional map of studies on the target species. We calculated the distances between the study sites and the locations of the research institutes/universities that the first and last authors of the same study were affiliated to. For the period of 1990 to 2014, we found 105 studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of aquatic vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon in 271 locations that involved 43 institutions (37 Brazilian and 6 international). The spatial distribution of the studies across the Brazilian Amazon varied, but over 80% took place in the northeast and central Amazon, encompassing three States of the Legal Brazilian Amazon (Amazonas, 51.42%; Pará, 19.05%; and Amapá, 16.19%). Over half of the research study sites (52.91%) were within 500 km of the research institute/university of the first or last authors. Some research institutes/universities did not have any inter-institutional collaborations, while others collaborated with eight or more institutes. Some research institutes/universities conducted many studies, had an extensive collaboration network, and contributed greatly to the network of studies on Amazonian aquatic vertebrates. Our research contributes to the knowledge of studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of the most exploited aquatic vertebrates of the Brazilian Amazon, illustrates the impact that collaboration networks have on research, and highlights potential areas for improvement and the

  20. Sources, Properties, Aging, and Anthropogenic Influences on OA and SOA over the Southeast US and the Amazon duing SOAS, DC3, SEAC4RS, and GoAmazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    The SE US and the Amazon have large sources of biogenic VOCs, varying anthropogenic pollution impacts, and often poor organic aerosol (OA) model performance. Recent results on the sources, properties, aging, and impact of anthropogenic pollution on OA and secondary OA (SOA) over ...

  1. The Amazon. Bio-geochemistry applied to river basin management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tardy, Yves; Bustillo, Vincent; Roquin, Claude; Mortatti, Jefferson; Victoria, Reynaldo

    2005-01-01

    A hydrochemical model, using hydrograph separation, developed for the Niger basin, has been proposed as a strategic tool for studying the watershed dynamics at any time and space scales. The model is applied to the Amazon basin, including the main channel and its major tributaries. The database corresponds to a sampling and analytical program developed over 8 cruises at 9 stations (about 70 samples), collected in the framework of the CAMREX Project (1982-1984). The model, based on a hydrograph separation of 3 reservoirs, is successful in extrapolating and predicting the geochemical and environmental behaviour of such large basins, naturally submitted to large secular or annual, regular or even catastrophic climatic oscillations. Several topics have been considered. (1) Coherence among the physico-chemical analyses: dissolved species (pH, NH 4 + , Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , NO 3 - , HCO 3 - , Cl - , DOC - , SO 4 2- , HPO 4 2- , SiO 2 , O 2 and CO 2 ), and inorganic or organic suspended load (fine and coarse fractions FSS, CSS, POCF, POCC). (2) Hydrograph separation in 3 reservoir contributions: R S , the superficial or rapid runoff, R I , the hypodermic or intermediate runoff, including the flood plain contributions, and R B the ground water or base flow. (3) Estimation of the isotopic and physico-chemical features of each of the 3 flow components: R S , R I , and R B . (4) Determination of the 3 hydrological parameters (size of the reservoir, drying up coefficient, and residence time of water), characterizing each of the 3 flow components (R S , R I , and R B ), in each of the 9 basins considered. (5) Hydrological and geochemical balances for all the parameters analysed either (a) cruise by cruise for all tributaries and the Amazon River at Obidos, or (b) among each of the 3 river flow components. (6) Isotopic data set of δ 18 O in waters, tests of coherence of the hydrograph separation model. (7) Relationships between isotopic signatures and morphological or

  2. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  3. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  4. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  5. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  6. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  7. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  8. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  9. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  10. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  11. The Amazons and an analysis of breast mutilation from a plastic surgeon's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karacalar, Ahmet

    2007-03-01

    The Amazon philosophy has been increasing in popularity because of the evolving status of women in society. Many references point to Themiscrya on the southern coast of the Black Sea in Anatolia as the Amazon homeland. The primary objective of this article is to discuss the different femininity of the Amazons and their breast mutilation from the perspective of a plastic surgeon who has been living in this region that the Amazons inhabited. Findings from archaeology, linguistics, anthropology, medicine, history, psychology, and the fine arts were integrated. The hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the method of breast mutilation include amputation, cauterization, breast searing, and breast pinching. It is generally believed that the primary purpose was to facilitate the efficient use of a bow. Another explanation would be that breast mutilation was performed for medical reasons, including the prevention of breast pain, the development of a tender lump, or cancer. There is another school of thought on this involving religious and sociological reasons that breast mutilation was a badge of honor for warrior women and a sign that a woman had become a real warrior and a sacrifice to Artemis as a sign of service. Much indirect proof and archaeological evidence point to their historical existence. The Amazons, who lived in an autonomous and original social model, changed their image and function to suit the needs of the society and the times.

  12. Transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon area; Transporte de produtos perigosos na regiao Amazonica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Wallace de Castro [FURNAS Centrais Eletricas S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Fernandes, Elton; Nassi, Carlos David [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE)

    2008-07-01

    Amongst several exploratory sources of the subject 'hazardous materials transport', it is distinguished: 'the threat to the environment'. This paper presents an exploratory investigation of this subject line in the Amazon region. In view of the diversity of 'existing hazardous materials' and the raised dimension of the oil transport and its derivatives in this context, this paper focused in these products. Regarding to the geographic region, the approach was given to the State of Amazon, considering the amplitude of this State in the Amazon region and the availability of data. Therefore, this work explores and analyzes macro aspects inherent to the State of Amazon pertinent to the oil transport and its derivatives. In the macro context, it is observed the necessity of a higher control in the transport of hazardous materials in the region. The absence of registered data and the unfamiliarity on the risks related to the transport of hazardous materials by authorities and transporters indicate a relative absence of qualification in the region to deal with the monitoring of the transport of hazardous materials. So far, it is not possible up till now to make any evaluation of the environment threats of accidents with transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon region.(author)

  13. Transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon area; Transporte de produtos perigosos na regiao Amazonica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Wallace de Castro [FURNAS Centrais Eletricas S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Fernandes, Elton; Nassi, Carlos David [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE)

    2008-07-01

    Amongst several exploratory sources of the subject 'hazardous materials transport', it is distinguished: 'the threat to the environment'. This paper presents an exploratory investigation of this subject line in the Amazon region. In view of the diversity of 'existing hazardous materials' and the raised dimension of the oil transport and its derivatives in this context, this paper focused in these products. Regarding to the geographic region, the approach was given to the State of Amazon, considering the amplitude of this State in the Amazon region and the availability of data. Therefore, this work explores and analyzes macro aspects inherent to the State of Amazon pertinent to the oil transport and its derivatives. In the macro context, it is observed the necessity of a higher control in the transport of hazardous materials in the region. The absence of registered data and the unfamiliarity on the risks related to the transport of hazardous materials by authorities and transporters indicate a relative absence of qualification in the region to deal with the monitoring of the transport of hazardous materials. So far, it is not possible up till now to make any evaluation of the environment threats of accidents with transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon region.(author)

  14. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  15. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  16. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  17. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  18. Construction delays: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Mauricio Furtado Maués

    Full Text Available Abstract he construction industry is one of the industrial sectors with the lowest rates of fulfilment of contract deadlines, especially in developing countries. This fact has been the focus of considerable discussions seeking to identify the causes of the delays. The main purpose of this paper is to use factor analysis to identify the factors that are correlated with delay, contemplating exclusively residential real estate projects and using a city in the Brazilian Amazon as a case study. Based on the database from the government agency that authorises constructions in the city of Belém (City Planning Department - Secretaria Municipal de Urbanismo, SEURB and data from construction companies, the study investigated 274 construction projects from the past 11 years. Factor analysis and work with the variables that can be identified and measured in the initial phase of the project, i.e., during the feasibility study, demonstrate that the physical characteristics of the apartments and the construction project are the primary causes for variations in construction delays; these causes have not yet been reported in the literature. We hope that the results of this study will contribute to more consistent forecasting of construction time, minimising the risk of delays.

  19. Reshaping Text Data for Efficient Processing on Amazon EC2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Turcu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Text analysis tools are nowadays required to process increasingly large corpora which are often organized as small files (abstracts, news articles, etc.. Cloud computing offers a convenient, on-demand, pay-as-you-go computing environment for solving such problems. We investigate provisioning on the Amazon EC2 cloud from the user perspective, attempting to provide a scheduling strategy that is both timely and cost effective. We derive an execution plan using an empirically determined application performance model. A first goal of our performance measurements is to determine an optimal file size for our application to consume. Using the subset-sum first fit heuristic we reshape the input data by merging files in order to match as closely as possible the desired file size. This also speeds up the task of retrieving the results of our application, by having the output be less segmented. Using predictions of the performance of our application based on measurements on small data sets, we devise an execution plan that meets a user specified deadline while minimizing cost.

  20. Unofficial Road Building in the Amazon: Socioeconomic and Biophysical Explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perz, Stephen G.; Caldas, Marcellus M.; Arima, Eugenio; Walker, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Roads have manifold social and environmental impacts, including regional development, social conflicts and habitat fragmentation. 'Road ecology' has emerged as an approach to evaluate the various ecological and hydrological impacts of roads. This article aims to complement road ecology by examining the socio-spatial processes of road building itself. Focusing on the Brazilian Amazon, a heavily-studied context due to forest fragmentation by roads, the authors consider non-state social actors who build 'unofficial roads' for the purpose of gaining access to natural resources to support livelihoods and community development. They examine four case studies of roads with distinct histories in order to explain the socio-spatial processes behind road building in terms of profit maximization, land tenure claims, co-operative and conflictive political ecologies, and constraints as well as opportunities afforded by the biophysical environment. The study cases illustrate the need for a multi-pronged theoretical approach to understanding road building, and call for more attention to the role of non-state actors in unofficial road construction.

  1. Photochemistry of biogenic emissions over the Amazon forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniel J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    1988-01-01

    The boundary layer chemistry over the Amazon forest during the dry season is simulated with a photochemical model. Results are in good agreement with measurements of isoprene, NO, ozone, and organic acids. Photochemical reactions of biogenic isoprene and NOx can supply most of the ozone observed in the boundary layer. Production of ozone is very sensitive to the availability of NOx, but is insensitive to the isoprene source strength. High concentrations of total odd nitrogen (NOy) are predicted for the planetary boundary layer, about 1 ppb in the mixed layer and 0.75 ppb in the convective cloud layer. Most of the odd nitrogen is present as PAN-type species, which are removed by dry deposition to the forest. The observed daytime variations of isoprene are explained by a strong dependence of the isoprene emission flux on sun angle. Nighttime losses of isoprene exceed rates of reaction with NO3 and O3 and appear to reflect dry-deposition processes. The 24-hour averaged isoprene emission flux is calculated to be 38 mg/sq m per day. Photooxidation of isoprene could account for a large fraction of the CO enrichment observed in the boundary layer under unpolluted conditions and could constitute an important atmospheric source of formic acid, methacrylic acid, and pyruvic acid.

  2. Protein requirements for Blue-fronted Amazon (Amazona aestiva) growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carciofi, A C; Sanfilippo, L F; de-Oliveira, L D; do Amaral, P P; Prada, F

    2008-06-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the protein requirements for hand-rearing Blue-fronted Amazon parrots (Amazona aestiva). Forty hatchlings were fed semi-purified diets containing one of four (as-fed basis) protein levels: 13%, 18%, 23% and 28%. The experiment was carried out in a randomized block design with the initial weight of the nestling as the blocking factor and 10 parrots per protein level. Regression analysis was used to determine relationships between protein level and biometric measurements. The data indicated that 13% crude protein supported nestling growth with 18% being the minimum tested level required for maximum development. The optimal protein concentration for maximum weight gain was 24.4% (p = 0.08; r(2) = 0.25), tail length 23.7% (p = 0.09; r(2) = 0.19), wing length 23.0% (p = 0.07; r(2) = 0.17), tarsus length 21.3% (p = 0.06; r(2) = 0.10) and tarsus width 21.4% (p = 0.07; r(2) = 0.09). Tarsus measurements were larger in males (p < 0.05), indicating that sex must be considered when studying developing psittacines. These results were obtained using a highly digestible protein and a diet with moderate metabolizable energy levels.

  3. Intermittent bradyarrhythmia in a Hispaniolan Amazon parrot (Amazona ventralis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rembert, Melanie S; Smith, Julie A; Strickland, Keith N; Tully, Thomas N

    2008-03-01

    A clinically normal 2-year-old Hispaniolan Amazon parrot (Amazona ventralis) was found to have periodic second-degree atrioventricular (AV) block with variable nodal conductions while anesthetized with isoflurane during a thermal-support research project. Arrhythmias were observed on 5 successive weekly electrocardiograms. A complete cardiac evaluation, including a diagnostic electrocardiogram, revealed intermittent bradyarrhythmias ranging from a 2:1 to a 7:1 second-degree AV block, with concurrent hypotensive episodes during the nodal blocks. Results of a complete blood cell count, plasma biochemical profile, blood gas analysis, and atropine-response test, as well as radiography and auscultation, revealed no obvious cause for the arrhythmias. Echocardiography demonstrated cardiac wall thickness, chamber size, and systolic function similar to other psittacine birds. On return to the colony, the parrot continued to be outwardly asymptomatic despite the dramatic conduction disturbances. Although cardiac arrhythmias, including second-degree AV block, have been widely reported in birds, the wide variation of nodal conductions, the intermittent nature, and an arrhythmia with a 7:1 second-degree AV block that spontaneously reverts to normal as seen in this case have not been well documented in parrots.

  4. Fluorescence lifetime evaluation of whole soils from the Amazon rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolodelli, Gustavo; Tadini, Amanda Maria; Nogueira, Marcelo Saito; Pratavieira, Sebastião; Mounier, Stephane; Huaman, Jose Luis Clabel; Dos Santos, Cléber Hilário; Montes, Célia Regina; Milori, Débora Marcondes Bastos Pereira

    2017-08-20

    Time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy (TRFS) is a new tool that can be used to investigate processes of interaction between metal ions and organic matter (OM) in soils, providing a specific analysis of the structure and dynamics of macromolecules. To the best of our knowledge, there are no studies in the literature reporting the use of this technique applied to whole/non-fractionated soil samples, making it a potential method for use in future studies. This work describes the use of TRFS to evaluate the fluorescence lifetimes of OM of whole soils from the Amazon region. Analysis was made of pellets of soils from an oxisol-spodosol system, collected in São Gabriel da Cachoeira (Amazonas, Brazil). The fluorescence lifetimes in the oxisol-spodosol system were attributed to two different fluorophores. One was related to complexation of an OM fraction with metals, resulting in a shorter fluorophore lifetime. A short fluorescence lifetime (2-12 ns) could be associated with simpler structures of the OM, while a long lifetime (19-66 ns) was associated with more complex OM structures. This new TRFS technique for analysis of the fluorescence lifetime in whole soil samples complies with the principles of green chemistry.

  5. On the footprints of a major Brazilian Amazon earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALBERTO V. VELOSO

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Combining historical accounts and seismological studies, three hundred years of dormant information emerged as a source of the largest known seismic event that rocked Brazil since the beginning of our colonization. The probable epicenter location of the 1690 tremor lies on the left bank of the Amazon River, about 45 km downstream from the modern day Manaus. A year later, while passing this area, a missionary met witnesses of the tremor and observed remarkable changes in the topography and vegetation along the margin of the river. By 1692 another priest confirmed this event and the occurrence of large waves in the river, which led to the flooding of the Native Indians' terrains. The tremor spread seismic waves throughout the forest and shook indigenous constructions as far as one thousand kilometers away. A calculation of the seismic parameters shows an estimated magnitude of 7, a maximum intensity of IX MM and a felt area of about 2 million km2. Due to the long recurrence period for this type of tremor, the discovery of one of these events is valuable for seismic global intraplate studies. As for Brazil, it unravels the myth that the country was never hit by severe earthquakes.

  6. An experience CTS in the classroom: theinternationalizationof the amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luiz Rodrigues Chaves

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is based on the construction and application of a sequence of teaching and learning, built collectively with an interdisciplinary vision and focused on a discussion about the topic “internationalization of Amazon” following a STS approach, by means of the controlled controversy technique applied on a private High School of Rio de Janeiro. It begins with a brief digression on teaching as a skill developer, a review about the story of the STS approach and its implications to scientific teaching as a significant learning way. The main questions that guided the research aimed to identify the following elements: student's previous ideas about subjects related to the Internalization of Amazon; the ways in which students and teachers have integrated themselves to the methodology used; the way in which students would use scientific concepts regarding a proposed problem; the proposed problem’s contribution to the development of competences and cognitive skills, in order to form citizens out of students. The analysis of the process was theoretically founded on Case Study, trough the STS focus as a promotion of the scientific alphabetization

  7. Nutrient retranslocation in forest species in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murilo Rezende Machado

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Internal retranslocation is an important mechanism for nutrient conservation in plants, which depends on different factors. However, there are little data about this subject, especially on tropical forest species. This study aimed to evaluate the macronutrient retranslocation dynamic and the influence of ecological (P: pioneer x NP: non-pioneer and phenological (ND: non-deciduous x D: semideciduous / deciduous characteristics on the macronutrient content of leaves of five tree species on monospecific plantations in the Brazilian Amazon: Acacia mangium Willd., Parkia decussata Ducke, Dipteryx odorata (Aublet Willd., Jacaranda copaia (Aubl. D. Don and Swietenia macrophylla King. Photosynthetically active green leaves and senescent leaves (leaf litter were collected. Retranslocation was estimated through an equation proposed by Attiwill, Guthrie and Leuning (1978. The pioneer species presented higher foliar contents of N; the non-pioneer species presented higher contents of K, Ca and S; and the results were inconclusive for P and Mg. The deciduous species presented higher foliar contents of K and of P, whereas the foliar contents of N, Ca, Mg and S were virtually identical between the phenological groups. The internal retranslocation of foliar nutrients in pioneer and non-deciduous species was higher than that of non-pioneer and deciduous species.

  8. Forced Migration and Changing Livelihoods in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randell, Heather

    2017-09-01

    Forced migration due to development projects or environmental change impacts livelihoods, as affected households are faced with new-and often less favorable-environmental, social, and economic conditions. This article examines changing livelihood strategies among a population of rural agricultural households displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Using longitudinal data, I find that many households used compensation payments to concentrate income generation efforts on the most lucrative strategies-cacao and cattle production and business or rental income. Poorer households and those that received the least compensation were more likely to continue relying on agricultural wage labor-a less desirable income source associated with not owning land or with persons needing to supplement income with additional work as a day laborer. Results also indicate that the amount of compensation received by most households was sufficient to enable them to make productive investments beyond attaining replacement land and housing. Many households invested in assets such as agricultural infrastructure, cattle, rental houses, or tractors-all of which directly contribute to future income. Displacement compensation, similar to remittances or conditional cash transfers, can therefore act as an important infusion of capital to promote socioeconomic development and poverty reduction.

  9. Colorimetric characterization of three wood species from the amazon forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sâmia Valéria dos Santos Barros

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze wood color variability in the (radial, tangential and transversal anatomic sections of Breu-vermelho, Tauari-vermelho and Pequiarana species through quantitative colorimetry using CIELAB color system. Such species come from a forest sustainable area of Thousand Precious Woods Company, located in Itacoatiara in the Amazon region of Brazil. Five wood samples from each species were selected so as to determine the following colorimetric parameters: L*, a*, b*, C e h*. In addition, 225 measurements were carried out with Konica Minolta CM-5 spectrophotometer connected to the computer. Results pointed out to statistical differences in the colorimetric parameters and also a low saturation in a* in the analyzed species. According to the cluster gathering, Breu-vermelho wood presents olive and/or grayish pink color, Tauari-vermelho is pinkish-gray and Pequiarana is grayish-pink and/or pinkish-gray. Such species presented differences in color among the three anatomic sections cited above and were also influenced by the yellow color defined in b* parameter. To summarize, colorimetric analysis to establish wood color is a simple procedure which may be used from the sawing of the logs until their final exploitation enabling value aggregation to the final product.

  10. Extreme flood events in the Bolivian Amazon wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ovando

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods. Keywords: Flood dynamics, Wetlands, Remote sensing, Llanos de Moxos

  11. Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros, Elías; Zhou, Sophie Lian; Börner, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit. PMID:26398096

  12. Landslides Are Common In The Amazon Rainforests Of SE Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanal, S. P.; Muttiah, R. S.; Janovec, J. P.

    2005-12-01

    The recent landslides in La Conchita, California, Mumbai, India, Ratnapura, Sri Lanka and Sugozu village, Turkey have dramatically illustrated prolonged rainfall on water induced change in soil shear stress. In these examples, the human footprint may have also erased or altered the natural river drainage from small to large scales. By studying patterns of landslides in natural ecosystems, government officials, policy makers, engineers, geologists and others may be better informed about likely success of prevention or amelioration programs in risk prone areas. Our study area in the Los Amigos basin in Amazon rainforests of Southeastern Peru, has recorded several hundred landslides. The area has no large human settlements. The basin is characterized by heavy rainfall, dense vegetation, river meander and uniform soils. Our objectives were: 1). Determine the spatial pattern of landslides using GIS and Remotely sensed data, 2). Model the statistical relationship between environmental variables and, 3). Evaluate influence of drainage on landscape and soil loss. GIS layers consisted of: 50cm aerial imagery, DEMs, digitized streams, soils, geology, rainfall from the TRMM satellite, and vegetation cover from the LANDSAT and MODIS sensors.

  13. Methane and Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Fluxes in Amazon Floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melack, J. M.; MacIntyre, S.; Forsberg, B.; Barbosa, P.; Amaral, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Field studies on the central Amazon floodplain in representative aquatic habitats (open water, flooded forests, floating macrophytes) combine measurements of methane and carbon dioxide concentrations and fluxes to the atmosphere over diel and seasonal times with deployment of meteorological sensors and high-resolution thermistors and dissolved oxygen sondes. A cavity ringdown spectrometer is used to determine gas concentrations, and floating chambers and bubble collectors are used to measure fluxes. To further understand fluxes, we measured turbulence as rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy based on microstructure profiling. These results allow calculations of vertical mixing within the water column and of air-water exchanges using surface renewal models. Methane and carbon dioxide fluxes varied as a function of season, habitat and water depth. High CO2 fluxes at high water are related to high pCO2; low pCO2 levels at low water result from increased phytoplankton uptake. CO2 fluxes are highest at turbulent open water sites, and pCO2 is highest in macrophyte beds. Fluxes and pCH4 are high in macrophyte beds.

  14. Nitrogen mass balance in the Brazilian Amazon: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinelli, L A; Pinto, A S; Nardoto, G B; Ometto, J P H B; Filoso, S; Coletta, L D; Ravagnani, E C

    2012-08-01

    The main purpose of this study is to perform a nitrogen budget survey for the entire Brazilian Amazon region. The main inputs of nitrogen to the region are biological nitrogen fixation occurring in tropical forests (7.7 Tg.yr(-1)), and biological nitrogen fixation in agricultural lands mainly due to the cultivation of a large area with soybean, which is an important nitrogen-fixing crop (1.68 Tg.yr(-1)). The input due to the use of N fertilizers (0.48 Tg.yr(-1)) is still incipient compared to the other two inputs mentioned above. The major output flux is the riverine flux, equal to 2.80 Tg.yr(-1) and export related to foodstuff, mainly the transport of soybean and beef to other parts of the country. The continuous population growth and high rate of urbanization may pose new threats to the nitrogen cycle of the region through the burning of fossil fuel and dumping of raw domestic sewage in rivers and streams of the region.

  15. Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros, Elías; Zhou, Sophie Lian; Börner, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit.

  16. Retrobulbar adenocarcinoma in an Amazon parrot (Amazona autumnalis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Victoria E; Murdock, Jessica H; Cazzini, Paola; Schnellbacher, Rodney; Divers, Stephen J; Sakamoto, Kaori

    2013-03-01

    Retrobulbar neoplasms are not common in mammals and are even more infrequently seen in nonmammalian species. The current report describes a retrobulbar mass creating exophthalmia and neurologic signs in a red-lored Amazon parrot (Amazona autumnalis). A 27-year-old female parrot presented for a 3-day history of anorexia and a 2-week history of periocular soft tissue swelling and exophthalmia of the right eye. Physical examination revealed 9% dehydration and right eye exophthalmia with inability to retropulse the globe. A fine-needle aspirate was performed, and cytologic evaluation revealed necrotic debris with scattered clusters of epithelial cells, moderate numbers of macrophages, and few heterophils. Given the possibility of neoplasia and paucity of treatment options, the owners elected euthanasia and submitted the body for necropsy. A large, fluctuant, friable, red, retrobulbar mass with multiple areas of hemorrhage, on cut surface, was noted at necropsy. Histologically, the mass was composed of neoplastic, cuboidal to columnar epithelial cells, forming rosette-like glandular structures, admixed with abundant necrotic debris. The neoplastic cells were strongly positive for cytokeratin (AE1/AE3) by immunohistochemistry. Based on histopathology and immunohistochemistry, the mass was diagnosed as an adenocarcinoma.

  17. Perspectives on the Great Amazon Reef: Extension, Biodiversity, and Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronaldo B. Francini-Filho

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Here we provide a broad overview of the Great Amazon Reef System (GARS based on the first-ever video surveys of the region. This footage supports four major hypotheses: (1 the GARS area may be six times larger than previously suggested (up to 56,000 km2; (2 the GARS may extend deeper than previously suggested (up to 220 m; (3 the GARS is composed of a greater complexity and diversity of habitats than previously recognized (e.g., reef platforms, reef walls, rhodolith beds, and sponge bottoms; and (4 the GARS represents a useful system to test whether a deep corridor connects the Caribbean Sea to the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. We also call attention to the urgent need to adopt precautionary conservation measures to protect the region in the face of increasing threats from extractive oil and gas practices. With less than 5% of the potential area of the GARS surveyed so far, more research will be required to inform a systematic conservation planning approach and determine how best to establish a network of marine protected areas. Such planning will be required to reconcile extractive activities with effective biodiversity conservation in the GARS.

  18. AMAZON RAINFOREST COSMETICS: CHEMICAL APPROACH FOR QUALITY CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariko Funasaki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The market for natural cosmetics featuring ingredients derived from Amazon natural resources is growing worldwide. However, there is neither enough scientific basis nor quality control of these ingredients. This paper is an account of the chemical constituents and their biological activities of fourteen Amazonian species used in cosmetic industry, including açaí (Euterpe oleracea, andiroba (Carapa guianensis, bacuri (Platonia insignis, Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, buriti (Mauritia vinifera or M. flexuosa, cumaru (Dipteryx odorata, cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum, guarana (Paullinia cupana, mulateiro (Calycophyllum spruceanum, murumuru (Astrocaryum murumuru, patawa (Oenocarpus bataua or Jessenia bataua, pracaxi (Pentaclethra macroloba, rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora, and ucuuba (Virola sebifera. Based on the reviewed articles, we selected chemical markers for the quality control purpose and evaluated analytical methods. Even though chromatographic and spectroscopic methods are major analytical techniques in the studies of these species, molecular approaches will also be important as used in food and medicine traceability. Only a little phytochemical study is available about most of the Amazonian species and some species such as açaí and andiroba have many reports on chemical constituents, but studies on biological activities of isolated compounds and sampling with geographical variation are limited.

  19. Collecting response times using Amazon Mechanical Turk and Adobe Flash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simcox, Travis; Fiez, Julie A

    2014-03-01

    Crowdsourcing systems like Amazon's Mechanical Turk (AMT) allow data to be collected from a large sample of people in a short amount of time. This use has garnered considerable interest from behavioral scientists. So far, most experiments conducted on AMT have focused on survey-type instruments because of difficulties inherent in running many experimental paradigms over the Internet. This study investigated the viability of presenting stimuli and collecting response times using Adobe Flash to run ActionScript 3 code in conjunction with AMT. First, the timing properties of Adobe Flash were investigated using a phototransistor and two desktop computers running under several conditions mimicking those that may be present in research using AMT. This experiment revealed some strengths and weaknesses of the timing capabilities of this method. Next, a flanker task and a lexical decision task implemented in Adobe Flash were administered to participants recruited with AMT. The expected effects in these tasks were replicated. Power analyses were conducted to describe the number of participants needed to replicate these effects. A questionnaire was used to investigate previously undescribed computer use habits of 100 participants on AMT. We conclude that a Flash program in conjunction with AMT can be successfully used for running many experimental paradigms that rely on response times, although experimenters must understand the limitations of the method.

  20. Commons management and ecotourism: Ethnographic evidence from the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Lee Stronza

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluates the relationship between ecotourism and commons management. Social and economic impacts of ecotourism in an indigenous village in the Peruvian Amazon are considered in relation to opportunities for collective action to manage common pool resources, including wildlife, forests, and river habitats. Longitudinal, ethnographic data gathered over 12 years about a joint venture ecotourism project between a private company and a local community show three outcomes that support commons management and three outcomes that challenge it. The outcomes in favor of commons management include: direct economic returns that act as conservation incentives, strengthened organization resulting from participatory management of ecotourism, and expanded networks of support from outside actors. Outcomes that are challenging the potential for collective action include: direct economic returns that enable expanded individual production and extraction, a new spirit of individual entrepreneurship that threatens to debilitate traditional social relations and institutions, and a conservation ethic that fosters dualistic thinking about people and nature and the zoning of places where resources are used vs. where they are preserved.