WorldWideScience

Sample records for nonoptimistic amazon scenarios

  1. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  2. Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Assis, Talita Oliveira; Dalla-Nora, Eloi L; Toledo, Peter Mann; Santos-Junior, Roberto Araújo Oliveira; Batistella, Mateus; Coelho, Andrea Santos; Savaget, Elza Kawakami; Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz; Nobre, Carlos Afonso; Ometto, Jean Pierre H

    2016-05-01

    Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary

  3. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  4. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  5. Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel Ayala, Laura; van Eupen, Michiel; Zhang, Guoping; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Martorano, Lucieta G; Lisboa, Leila S; Beltrao, Norma E

    2016-11-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent water bodies. These impacts might be intensified by projected climate change in tropical areas. A Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) serves as a tool to assess environmental impacts of water and fertiliser use. The aim of this study was to understand potential impacts on environmental sustainability of agricultural intensification close to a protected forest area of the Amazon under climate change. We carried out a WFA to calculate the water footprint (WF) related to soybean production, Glycine max, to understand the sustainability of the WF in the Tapajós river basin, a region in the Brazilian Amazon with large expansion and intensification of soybean. Based on global datasets, environmental hotspots - potentially unsustainable WF areas - were identified and spatially plotted in both baseline scenario (2010) and projection into 2050 through the use of a land-use change scenario that includes climate change effects. Results show green and grey WF values in 2050 increased by 304% and 268%, respectively. More than one-third of the watersheds doubled their grey WF in 2050. Soybean production in 2010 lies within sustainability limits. However, current soybean expansion and intensification trends lead to large impacts in relation to water pollution and water use, affecting protected areas. Areas not impacted in terms of water pollution dropped by 20.6% in 2050 for the whole catchment, while unsustainability increased 8.1%. Management practices such as water consumption regulations to stimulate efficient water use, reduction of crop water use and evapotranspiration, and optimal fertiliser application control could be key factors in achieving sustainability within a river basin.

  6. Modelling future fire probability in the Brazilian Amazon under different land-use and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Marisa; Alves, Lincoln; Aguiar, Ana Paula; Anderson, Liana; Aragão, Luiz

    2017-04-01

    Climate and land-use change are expected to amplify fire incidence in the Amazon. Modelling the influence of land-use and climate change scenarios on fire occurrence is therefore important to better understand their impacts on the carbon emissions and ecosystems' degradation in the region. Here we use the Maximum Entropy method (MaxEnt) to estimate the impact of different climate and land-use change scenarios on the relative fire probability (RFP) during the 2071-2099 period in the Brazilian Amazon with a 0.25° spatial resolution. The model was calibrated using satellite-based fire detections during the 2006-2015 period (hereafter "baseline"). The land-use change variables were obtained considering alternative pathways of clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation and old growth forest degradation resulting from major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental dynamics in the region. The climatic variables were generated using a regional model (ETA) nested in an earth system global model (HadGEM2-ES). A land-use "sustainability" scenario considering that institutional and political conditions would favour the increase in forest regeneration and decrease of the old growth forest degradation and clear-cut deforestation rates was combined with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 climatic scenario (hereafter SUST-4.5). To access the worst-case scenario of fire incidence, a "fragmentation" land-use scenario, representing the opposite tendency of the "sustainability" conditions, was combined with the climatic variables resulting from the RCP 8.5 (FRAG-8.5). The test AUC (area under de curve) metric (0.768 ± 0.018) indicated satisfactory model performance. In the FRAG-8.5 scenario 63% ( 2.900.000 km2) of the study region shows from 0.35 to 0.55 of RFP, while in the baseline and under the SUST-4.5 scenario, 30% and 40% of the region is within this range of RFP, respectively. Conversely, in the baseline 29% of the area shows up to 0.1 RFP, but this

  7. The Scenario of Brazilian Amazon Transportation Infrastructure in the Natural Hazards Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Almeida Flores

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The development of a region is related, in part, to its ability to establish relations with other regions and the efficiency with which it operates internally and streamlines their intra relations. The study of the impacts in the availability of transport infrastructure in regional development interests by the influence it has on the location decisions of investment. The network of transport infrastructure in the Brazilian Amazon region is susceptible to interruptions in its functioning by pressures arising from the interaction of coupled human and natural systems, impacting regional development mainly by isolating regions raising concerns about human security of local residents and the economic development to the extent that regional production does not circulates temporarily, eliminating one of the economy dynamics main stages. The susceptibility indicators of transport infrastructure system in the Amazon are unclear and this study presents disruptions causes, frequency, potential risks and impacts in this system functioning.

  8. Soil erosion and associated organic carbon transfer along the southern Amazon land use frontier - status quo and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Anne-Kathrin; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    The Southern Amazon deforestation arc is one of the world's most dynamically changing landscapes mainly caused by global demands on animal products. Already more than 50 % of the savanna vegetation in Mato Grosso is converted to agricultural land. Following the BR-163 highway to the north deforestation is continuing, where former tropical rainforest is converted to pastures. Consequences are expected to be negative and highly relevant concerning soil functions. Soil losses and related carbon transfer by water erosion are likely to occur on a larger scale. Within the Carbiocial project, the impact of land use changes on soil loss was measured by applying artificial rainfall simulations. Experimental results were used to parameterize the physical based EROSION 3D simulation model in two meso-scale watersheds. The impact of future land use and climate scenarios on soil erosion and particle bound organic carbon transfer were simulated in addition to present day effects. Our results allow different predictions: Land use changes from natural vegetation to pasture lead to increased surface runoffs and soil losses. Due to the predominant no-tillage management, croplands do not reveal a similar behaviour; runoff and sediment yields are close to the initial level. Particle bound organic carbon losses are negligible compared to the removal of biomass during deforestation. Compared to the land use change effect more significant differences appear concerning the predominant soil types of the study region. Deterioration of soil functions are less pronounced for Ferralsols with a stable microstructure than for Acrisols. Additionally, our data suggest, that the main soil losses are related to the narrow time windows of land use conversion. Consequently, intensifying production on existing agricultural land rather than creating new production area (deforestation) might be the most practical way of preserving soils of the Southern Amazon.

  9. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  10. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  11. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  12. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  13. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an i

  14. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an i

  15. Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin: a multi-model analysis with a new set of land-cover change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimberteau, Matthieu; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès; Boisier, Juan Pablo; Dutra Aguiar, Ana Paula; Biemans, Hester; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Galbraith, David; Kruijt, Bart; Langerwisch, Fanny; Poveda, German; Rammig, Anja; Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Tejada, Graciela; Thonicke, Kirsten; Von Randow, Celso; Von Randow, Rita C. S.; Zhang, Ke; Verbeeck, Hans

    2017-03-01

    Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change (LCC), as well as on climate change and CO2 levels. On the one hand, elevated CO2 decreases leaf-scale transpiration, but this effect could be offset by increased foliar area density. Using three regional LCC scenarios specifically established for the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, we investigate the impacts of climate change and deforestation on the surface hydrology of the Amazon Basin for this century, taking 2009 as a reference. For each LCC scenario, three land surface models (LSMs), LPJmL-DGVM, INLAND-DGVM and ORCHIDEE, are forced by bias-corrected climate simulated by three general circulation models (GCMs) of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On average, over the Amazon Basin with no deforestation, the GCM results indicate a temperature increase of 3.3 °C by 2100 which drives up the evaporative demand, whereby precipitation increases by 8.5 %, with a large uncertainty across GCMs. In the case of no deforestation, we found that ET and runoff increase by 5.0 and 14 %, respectively. However, in south-east Amazonia, precipitation decreases by 10 % at the end of the dry season and the three LSMs produce a 6 % decrease of ET, which is less than precipitation, so that runoff decreases by 22 %. For instance, the minimum river discharge of the Rio Tapajós is reduced by 31 % in 2100. To study the additional effect of deforestation, we prescribed to the LSMs three contrasted LCC scenarios, with a forest decline going from 7 to 34 % over this century. All three scenarios partly offset the climate-induced increase of ET, and runoff increases over the entire Amazon. In the south-east, however, deforestation amplifies the decrease of ET at the end of dry season

  16. Deforestation effects on Amazon forest resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemp, D. C.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Barbosa, H. M. J.; Rammig, A.

    2017-06-01

    Through vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, rainfall reductions as a result of Amazon deforestation could reduce the resilience on the remaining forest to perturbations and potentially lead to large-scale Amazon forest loss. We track observation-based water fluxes from sources (evapotranspiration) to sinks (rainfall) to assess the effect of deforestation on continental rainfall. By studying 21st century deforestation scenarios, we show that deforestation can reduce dry season rainfall by up to 20% far from the deforested area, namely, over the western Amazon basin and the La Plata basin. As a consequence, forest resilience is systematically eroded in the southwestern region covering a quarter of the current Amazon forest. Our findings suggest that the climatological effects of deforestation can lead to permanent forest loss in this region. We identify hot spot regions where forest loss should be avoided to maintain the ecological integrity of the Amazon forest.

  17. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, Sao Francisco and the Parana River basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Chou, Sin Chan; Alves, Lincoln M.; Pesquero, Jose F.; Soares, Wagner R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-05-15

    The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961-1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4-6 C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation-Evaporation (P-E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and Sao Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future

  18. Programming Amazon EC2

    CERN Document Server

    Vliet, Jurg

    2011-01-01

    If you plan to use Amazon Web Services to run applications in the cloud, the end-to-end approach in this book will save you needless trial and error. You'll find practical guidelines for designing and building applications with Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) and a host of supporting AWS tools, with a focus on critical issues such as load balancing, monitoring, and automation. How do you move an existing application to AWS, or design your application so that it scales effectively? How much storage will you require? Programming Amazon EC2 not only helps you get started, it will also keep y

  19. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/156696207

    2015-01-01

    This essay takes a (green) criminological and multidisciplinary perspective on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, by focusing on the crimes and damages that are associated with Amazonian deforestation. The analysis and results are partly based on longer ethnographic stays in North Brazil (Amazon

  20. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2015-01-01

    This essay takes a (green) criminological and multidisciplinary perspective on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, by focusing on the crimes and damages that are associated with Amazonian deforestation. The analysis and results are partly based on longer ethnographic stays in North Brazil (Amazon

  1. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  2. The changing Amazon forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Baker, Timothy R; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Higuchi, Niro

    2008-05-27

    Long-term monitoring of distributed, multiple plots is the key to quantify macroecological patterns and changes. Here we examine the evidence for concerted changes in the structure, dynamics and composition of old-growth Amazonian forests in the late twentieth century. In the 1980s and 1990s, mature forests gained biomass and underwent accelerated growth and dynamics, all consistent with a widespread, long-acting stimulation of growth. Because growth on average exceeded mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been a carbon sink. In the late twentieth century, biomass of trees of more than 10cm diameter increased by 0.62+/-0.23tCha-1yr-1 averaged across the basin. This implies a carbon sink in Neotropical old-growth forest of at least 0.49+/-0.18PgCyr-1. If other biomass and necromass components are also increased proportionally, then the old-growth forest sink here has been 0.79+/-0.29PgCyr-1, even before allowing for any gains in soil carbon stocks. This is approximately equal to the carbon emissions to the atmosphere by Amazon deforestation. There is also evidence for recent changes in Amazon biodiversity. In the future, the growth response of remaining old-growth mature Amazon forests will saturate, and these ecosystems may switch from sink to source driven by higher respiration (temperature), higher mortality (as outputs equilibrate to the growth inputs and periodic drought) or compositional change (disturbances). Any switch from carbon sink to source would have profound implications for global climate, biodiversity and human welfare, while the documented acceleration of tree growth and mortality may already be affecting the interactions among millions of species.

  3. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  4. The economic value of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil Costa, Marcos; Pires, Gabrielle; Fontes, Vitor; Brumatti, Livia

    2017-04-01

    The rainy Amazon climate allowed important activities to develop in the region as large rainfed agricultural lands and hydropower plants. The Amazon rainforest is an important source of moisture to the regional atmosphere and helps regulate the local climate. The replacement of forest by agricultural lands decreases the flux of water vapor into the atmosphere and changes the precipitation patterns, which may severely affect such economic activities. Assign an economic value to this ecosystem service may emphasize the significance to preserve the Amazon rainforest. In this work, we provide a first approximation of the quantification of the climate regulation ecosystem service provided by the Amazon rainforest using the marginal production method. We use climate scenarios derived from Amazon deforestation scenarios as input to crop and runoff models to assess how land use change would affect agriculture and hydropower generation. The effects of forest removal on soybean production and on cattle beef production can both be as high as US 16 per year per ha deforested, and the effects on hydropower generation can be as high as US 8 per year per ha deforested. We consider this as a conservative estimate of a permanent service provided by the rainforest. Policy makers and other Amazon agriculture and energy businesses must be aware of these numbers, and consider them while planning their activities.

  5. Amazon: Is Profitability a Possibility?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett DENNIS

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In today’s society, companies seem to all be following the same trend; growth in profitability at all cost. Higher profits, for the most part, leads to more investors and more potential financing. Amazon.com appears to be breaking that trend, however. Their strategy seems to be growth, but not in profits. We would like to look into how and why Amazon is growing at such a fast pace, while their profits are staying steady at a very low level. Is profitability a possibility for Amazon? We believe that a marginal increase in price could accomplish just that, with a minimal impact to consumers.

  6. Future of oil and gas development in the western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Babbitt, Bruce; Novoa, Sidney; Ferrarese, Francesco; Eugenio Pappalardo, Salvatore; De Marchi, Massimo; Saucedo, Maria; Kumar, Anjali

    2015-02-01

    The western Amazon is one of the world’s last high-biodiversity wilderness areas, characterized by extraordinary species richness and large tracts of roadless humid tropical forest. It is also home to an active hydrocarbon (oil and gas) sector, characterized by operations in extremely remote areas that require new access routes. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of the hydrocarbon sector and its associated road-building in the western Amazon. Specifically, we document the (a) current panorama, including location and development status of all oil and gas discoveries, of the sector, and (b) current and future scenario of access (i.e. access road versus roadless access) to discoveries. We present an updated 2014 western Amazon hydrocarbon map illustrating that oil and gas blocks now cover 733 414 km2, an area much larger than the US state of Texas, and have been expanding since the last assessment in 2008. In terms of access, we documented 11 examples of the access road model and six examples of roadless access across the region. Finally, we documented 35 confirmed and/or suspected untapped hydrocarbon discoveries across the western Amazon. In the Discussion, we argue that if these reserves must be developed, use of the offshore inland model—a method that strategically avoids the construction of access roads—is crucial to minimizing ecological impacts in one of the most globally important conservation regions.

  7. Neogene origins and implied warmth tolerance of Amazon tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Christopher W; Lewis, Simon L; Maslin, Mark; Bermingham, Eldredge

    2012-01-01

    Tropical rain forest has been a persistent feature in South America for at least 55 million years. The future of the contemporary Amazon forest is uncertain, however, as the region is entering conditions with no past analogue, combining rapidly increasing air temperatures, high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, possible extreme droughts, and extensive removal and modification by humans. Given the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend, it is unknown whether Amazon forests can tolerate air temperature increases, with suggestions that lowland forests lack warm-adapted taxa, leading to inevitable species losses. In response to this uncertainty, we posit a simple hypothesis: the older the age of a species prior to the Pleistocene, the warmer the climate it has previously survived, with Pliocene (2.6-5 Ma) and late-Miocene (8-10 Ma) air temperature across Amazonia being similar to 2100 temperature projections under low and high carbon emission scenarios, respectively. Using comparative phylogeographic analyses, we show that 9 of 12 widespread Amazon tree species have Pliocene or earlier lineages (>2.6 Ma), with seven dating from the Miocene (>5.6 Ma) and three >8 Ma. The remarkably old age of these species suggest that Amazon forests passed through warmth similar to 2100 levels and that, in the absence of other major environmental changes, near-term high temperature-induced mass species extinction is unlikely.

  8. Proximate analysis for amazon biomass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Antonio Geraldo de Paula; Feitosa Netto, Genesio Batista; Nogueira, Manoel Fernandes Martins; Coutinho, Manoel Fernandes Martins; Coutinho, Hebert Willian Martins; Rendeiro, Goncalo [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Lab. de Engenharia Mecanica (LABGAS)], e-mail: ageraldo@ufpa.br, e-mail: mfmn@ufpa.br, e-mail: rendeiro@ufpa.br

    2006-07-01

    In order to asses the potentiality of Amazon biomass to generate power, either to supply electric energy to the grid or as fuel to plants supplying power for off-grid location, data for their proximate analysis must be available. A literature review on the subject indicated a lack of information and data concerning typical Amazon rain forest species. This work aimed to characterize (proximate analysis) 80 Amazon species in order to evaluate the energy resource from woody biomass wastes in Amazon region. Higher Heating Value, Carbon, Volatile and Ash contents were measured in a dry basis. The measurements were performed obeying the following Brazilian standards, NBR 6923, NBR 8112, NBR 8633, NBR 6922. (author)

  9. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  10. Ecological diversity of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the Amazon basin. The main scenaries in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coura, J R; Junqueira, A C V

    2015-11-01

    The ecological diversity of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the Brazilian Amazon region is directly interlinked with the parasite's extensive reservoir, composed of 33 species of wild mammals within the following orders: Marsupialia, Chiroptera, Rodentia, Xenarthra, Carnivora and Primates; and of 16 species of wild triatomines, of which ten may be infected with T. cruzi. Four scenarios for the diversity of T. cruzi transmission in the Brazilian Amazon region are evident: (i) T. cruzi transmission between vectors and wild mammals, which is characterized as a wild enzooty encompassing the entire Amazon basin; (ii) accidental T. cruzi transmission from vectors and wild mammals to humans, when they invade the wild ecotope or when these vectors and wild mammals invade human homes; (iii) occupational Chagas disease among piassava (Leopoldinia piassaba) palm fiber gatherers, transmitted by the vector Rhodnius brethesi, for which these palm trees are the specific ecotope; (IV) oral T. cruzi transmission to humans through food contamination, particularly in juices from plants such as assai, which today is considered to be endemic in the Brazilian Amazon region, with more than 1500 cases notified.

  11. Modelling the interplay between global and regional drivers on Amazon deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Aguiar, A. P. D.; Montenegro Lapola, D.; Woltjer, G.

    2014-12-01

    Since mid-2000s, several measures have been taken to curb Amazon deforestation in Brazil, which dropped 84% up to 2012. However, this process raise concerns owed of the unintended effects of such interventions, like land use displacements. Here we explore an innovative modeling approach for the Amazon in order to simulate how the global demand for agricultural commodities and different regional land use policies could affect future deforestation trends inside and outside the Amazon, paying special attention to leakage effects over the Cerrado. A global economic model was taken to integrate supply and demand factors at both global and regional scales, coupled with a spatially explicitly land use model. Leakage effects are simulated in two different ways, regarding land demand and land allocation, based on the relative land rents of different land use types and spatial regression. Six contrasting multi-scale scenarios are explored focusing on deforestation rates and spatial pattern analysis. Our results unveil that Amazon conservation might not be the end of deforestation in Brazil once it can lead to 70% increase over the Cerrado cleared area up to 2050. Biofuels targets compliance can further press land cover changes over these regions revealing that productivity gains will be decisive for both Amazon and Cerrado conservation. In summary, closing the agricultural frontier in the Amazon cannot ensure biodiversity conservation or carbon savings in absence of complementary measures committed with land use efficiency, controlled land use expansion and new economic alternatives.

  12. Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Philip B; Brando, Paulo; Asner, Gregory P; Field, Christopher B

    2015-10-27

    Future intensification of Amazon drought resulting from climate change may cause increased fire activity, tree mortality, and emissions of carbon to the atmosphere across large areas of Amazonia. To provide a basis for addressing these issues, we examine properties of recent and future meteorological droughts in the Amazon in 35 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that the CMIP5 climate models, as a group, simulate important properties of historical meteorological droughts in the Amazon. In addition, this group of models reproduces observed relationships between Amazon precipitation and regional sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. Assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for future drivers of climate change, the models project increases in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon, and the opposite in the West. For the region as a whole, the CMIP5 models suggest that the area affected by mild and severe meteorological drought will nearly double and triple, respectively, by 2100. Extremes of wetness are also projected to increase after 2040. Specifically, the frequency of periods of unusual wetness and the area affected by unusual wetness are projected to increase after 2040 in the Amazon as a whole, including in locations where annual mean precipitation is projected to decrease. Our analyses suggest that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of extreme events that have been shown to alter and degrade Amazonian forests.

  13. The Amazon basin in transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Eric A; de Araújo, Alessandro C; Artaxo, Paulo; Balch, Jennifer K; Brown, I Foster; C Bustamante, Mercedes M; Coe, Michael T; DeFries, Ruth S; Keller, Michael; Longo, Marcos; Munger, J William; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S; Souza, Carlos M; Wofsy, Steven C

    2012-01-18

    Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

  14. Rethinking IR from the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela Picq

    Full Text Available Abstract This article proposes Amazonia as a site to think world politics. The Amazon is invisible in the study International Relations (IR, yet its experiences are deeply global. I present the international dynamics at play in Amazonia at different historical moments to posit that this periphery has contributed to forging the political-economy of what is refer to as the core. The Amazon's absence from the study of IR speaks about the larger inequality in processes of knowledge production. Serious engagements with Amazonia are one way to invite a plurality of worlds in the production of theories, disrupting global divisions of labor in knowledge production ally.

  15. GoAmazon – Scaling Amazon Carbon Water Couplings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubey, Manvendra Krishna [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-09-06

    Forests soak up 25% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic fossil energy use (10 Gt C y-1) moderating its atmospheric accumulation. How this terrestrial CO2 uptake will evolve with climate change in the 21st century is largely unknown. Rainforests are the most active ecosystems with the Amazon basin storing 120 Gt C as biomass and exchanging 18 Gt C y-1 of CO2 via photosynthesis and respiration and fixing carbon at 2-3 kg C m-2 y-1. Furthermore, the intense hydrologic and carbon cycles are tightly coupled in the Amazon where about half of the water is recycled by evapotranspiration and the other half imported from the ocean by Northeasterly trade winds. Climate models predict a drying in the Amazon with reduced carbon uptake while observationally guided assessments indicate sustained uptake. We will resolve this huge discrepancy in the size and sign of the future Amazon carbon cycle by performing the first simultaneous regional scale high frequency measurements of atmospheric CO2, H2O, HOD, CH4, N2O and CO at the T3 site in Manacupuru, Brazil as part of DOE's GoAmazon project. Our data will be used to inform and develop DOE's CLM on the tropical carbon-water couplings at the appropriate grid scale (10-50km). Our measurements will also validate the CO2 data from Japan's GOSAT and NASA's imminent OCO-2 satellite (launch date July 2014).

  16. Amazon Fund: financing deforestation avoidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Marcovitch

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon Fund, created in 2008 by the Brazilian Federal Government, is managed by Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES. It is a pioneering initiative to fundraise and manage financial resources to cut back deforestation and support sustainable development for 30 million inhabitants in the Amazon Biome. The Amazon Fund has already received more than R$ 1.7 billion in grants (about USD 787 million. This essay analyzes the Amazon Fund's governance and management with focus on its operation and from its stakeholders' perspectives. A combination of research methods includes: documental research, in-depth interviews, and speech analysis. The study offers a comparative analysis of strengths and weaknesses related to its governance. Furthermore, it proposes ways to improve its management towards greater effectiveness. The essay also includes an assessment of the government of Norway, a major donor to the fund. The governments of Norway and Germany, in partnership with Brazil, reveal how important it is to experiment with new means of international cooperation to successfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions through rainforest preservation.

  17. The Amazon Region; A Vision of Sovereignty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    da Amazonia (Brazilian Regional Commander of Amazon), about Ŕ Exercito na Amazonia " ("The Army in the Amazon) . Manaus, AM, 1996. 3 Instituto...accessed 23 Dec 97. 6 Editora Abril, Almanaque Abril 97, 205. 7 Comando Militär da Amazonia , lecture. 8 Comando Militär da Amazonia , lecture. 9...Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. 10 Editora Abril, Almanaque Abril 97, 98. 11 Gelio Fregapani, Amazonia 1996 - Soberania Ameacada (Amazon

  18. Genetic variability in three Amazon parrot species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IF. Lopes

    Full Text Available Parrots of the genus Amazona are among the most threatened species of the Order Pscittaciformes. This work describes allozyme polymorphisms in three Amazon parrot species - the Blue-fronted Amazon (Amazona aestiva, the Orange-winged Amazon (Amazona amazonica, and the Festive Amazon (Amazona festiva -, and provides useful data for the evaluation of their genetic variability. We electrophoretically analyzed blood samples from 68 wild-caught individuals, maintained in captivity in three Brazilian zoos. Eight of the ten studied enzyme loci exhibited polymorphism. Glucosephosphate isomerase (Gpi proved to be a diagnostic locus for the identification of these Amazon species. The expected average heterozygosity of the Blue-fronted Amazon (0.060 differed significantly from the expected heterozygosities of the Orange-winged Amazon and the Festive Amazon (0.040 and 0.039, respectively. This result was discussed as a consequence of hybridization between two geographic A. aestiva subspecies, and alternatively as a particular trait of this species. Genetic variability of the Blue-fronted Amazon compared to birds in general is not low on a species-wide level, despite the fact that this parrot is one of the most illegally traded species. Allozyme analysis proved to be an useful tool in monitoring the genetic variation within the genus Amazona and can be applied in the management program of other threatened species of this genus.

  19. Current Characterization at the Amazon estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezerra, M. O.

    2009-04-01

    February to May, the plume goes northwest towards the Caribbean. As to classification according to salinity stratification, at the quadrature the Amazon estuary is considered as "Saline Wedge" type (highly stratified estuary), salinity at 120 Km way from river moth standing out, whereas at sysygy it can be classified as well mixed (Limeburner et al. 1991e 1992; Patchineelam, 2004). Fresh water is everywhere in the river area, salty or mixed water is located in the ocean. In this estuary 90 Km away from the mouth surface water salinity is less than 0.05 and bottom salinity at 14 m deep is about 19 at high water on quadrature at the end of the rainy season. This behavior produces marked difference in the vertical salinity profile, showing the current is moving in the opposite direction (river fresh water and salty water brought by the tide). In this scenario, speed shearing at the interface produces interfacial friction stress that, from the entrainment process carries portions of water from the sea to the upper part. Usually, therefore, in "saline wedge" (highly stratified estuary) type estuaries, when river discharge is more intensive than the tide wave, entrainment is the predominant mechanism; and the greater tide amplitude is, the greater will its influence be to produce turbulent scattering and mixing be. Probably, at Amazon estuary quadrature entrainment processes are predominant and are the ones responsible for increased salinity in surface layer, whereas turbulence scattering mixing is secondary to it. "Saline wedge" (highly stratified estuary) type estuaries are typical of large fluvial discharge and microtide regions. But although the Amazon estuary is a macrotide region, this stratification is due to the river's exceptional discharge. Due to the remarkable river plume discharge on the platform, the tide - a dominant in macrotide region estuarine circulation - now has a secondary role, albeit not a negligible one, with quadrature amplitudes varying from 2 m to 90

  20. Rethinking the strategy of Amazon.com

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heng, Michael S.H.

    2001-01-01

    The strategic challenge facing Amazon.com is that it is not able to convincethe investment community that it is able to generate profits in the long run. The doubtof investors is well grounded. This paper argues that Amazon should make a strategicshift to operate as a provider of technical services

  1. Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. P. Asner; D. E. Knapp; E. N. Broadbent; P. J. C. Oliveira; M Keller; J. N. Silva

    2005-01-01

    Amazon deforestation has been measured by remote sensing for three decades. In comparison, selective logging has been mostly invisible to satellites. We developed a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote-sensing analysis of selective logging in the top five timber-producing states of the Brazilian Amazon. Logged areas ranged from 12,075 to 19,823 square...

  2. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  3. Getting started With Amazon Redshift

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Getting Started With Amazon Redshift is a step-by-step, practical guide to the world of Redshift. Learn to load, manage, and query data on Redshift.This book is for CIOs, enterprise architects, developers, and anyone else who needs to get familiar with RedShift. The CIO will gain an understanding of what their technical staff is working on; the technical implementation personnel will get an in-depth view of the technology, and what it will take to implement their own solutions.

  4. Amazon SimpleDB LITE

    CERN Document Server

    Chaganti, Prabhakar

    2011-01-01

    This focused book is an extracted LITE version of Packt's full: Amazon SimpleDB Developer Guide. It concentrates on getting a grounding in the value of SimpleDB, and shows how to set up an AWS account, enable a SimpleDB service for the account, and install and set up libraries for Java, PHP, and Python. If you are a developer wanting to get to grips with a primer into SimpleDB, then this book is for you. You do not need to know anything about SimpleDB to read and learn from this book, and no basic knowledge is strictly necessary.

  5. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel M D Rosa

    Full Text Available Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1 it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2 the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3 deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia"-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy, annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is

  6. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  7. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the application of WaterWorld (www.policysupport.org/waterworld) to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural-to-urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined plausible scenarios of climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon.

  8. Introduction: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5)

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, S. T.; Artaxo, P.; Machado, L. A. T.; A. O. Manzi; SOUZA, R. A. F. de; SCHUMACHER, C.; J. Wang; ANDREAE, M.O.; H. M. J. Barbosa; Fan, J.; G. Fisch; Goldstein, A.H.; Guenther, A.; J. L. Jimenez; Pöschl, U.

    2015-01-01

    The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin during two years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and ...

  9. Damming the rivers of the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latrubesse, Edgardo M.; Arima, Eugenio Y.; Dunne, Thomas; Park, Edward; Baker, Victor R.; D'Horta, Fernando M.; Wight, Charles; Wittmann, Florian; Zuanon, Jansen; Baker, Paul A.; Ribas, Camila C.; Norgaard, Richard B.; Filizola, Naziano; Ansar, Atif; Flyvbjerg, Bent; Stevaux, Jose C.

    2017-06-01

    More than a hundred hydropower dams have already been built in the Amazon basin and numerous proposals for further dam constructions are under consideration. The accumulated negative environmental effects of existing dams and proposed dams, if constructed, will trigger massive hydrophysical and biotic disturbances that will affect the Amazon basin’s floodplains, estuary and sediment plume. We introduce a Dam Environmental Vulnerability Index to quantify the current and potential impacts of dams in the basin. The scale of foreseeable environmental degradation indicates the need for collective action among nations and states to avoid cumulative, far-reaching impacts. We suggest institutional innovations to assess and avoid the likely impoverishment of Amazon rivers.

  10. Forest response to increased disturbance in the Central Amazon and comparison to Western Amazonian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Collins, W.; Higuchi, N.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties surrounding vegetation response to increased disturbance rates associated with climate change remains a major global change issue for Amazon forests. Additionally, turnover rates in the Western Amazon are doubled compared to the Central Amazon, and notable gradients currently exist in specific wood density and aboveground biomass (AGB). This study investigates the extent to which the variation in disturbance regimes contributes to these regional gradients. To address these issues, we evaluated disturbance-recovery processes under scenarios of increased disturbance rates in a Central Amazon forest using first ZELIG-TROP, a dynamic vegetation gap model which we calibrated using long-term inventory data, and second using the Community Land Model (CLM), a global land surface model. Upon doubling the mortality rate in the Central Amazon to mirror the disturbance regime in the Western Amazon of ~2% mortality, the two regions continued to differ in multiple forest processes. With the inclusion of elevated natural disturbances, at steady-state, AGB significantly decreased by 41.9% with no significant difference between modeled AGB and empirical AGB from the western Amazon datasets (104 vs. 107 Mg C ha-1). However, different processes were responsible for the reductions in AGB between the models and empirical dataset. The empirical dataset suggests that a decrease in wood density drives the reduction in AGB. While decreased stand basal area was the driver of AGB loss in ZELIG-TROP, and decreased leaf area index (LAI) was the driver in CLM, two forest attributes that do not significantly vary across the Amazon Basin. Further comparisons found that stem density, specific wood density, and growth rates differed between the two Amazonian regions. This suggests that: 1) the variability between regions cannot be entirely explained by the variability in disturbance regime, but rather potentially sensitive to intrinsic environmental factors; or 2) the models are not

  11. Synergisms among fire, land use, and climate change in the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Mark A; Laurance, William F

    2008-12-01

    The Amazon is being rapidly transformed by fire. Logging and forest fragmentation sharply elevate fire incidence by increasing forest desiccation and fuel loads, and forests that have experienced a low-intensity surface fire are vulnerable to far more catastrophic fires. Satellites typically detect thermal signatures from 40 000 to 50 000 separate fires in the Amazon each year, and this number could increase as new highways and infrastructure expand across the basin. Many are concerned that large-scale deforestation, by reducing regional evapotranspiration and creating moisture-trapping smoke plumes, will make the basin increasingly vulnerable to fire. The Amazon may also be affected by future global warming and atmospheric changes, although much remains uncertain. Most models suggest the basin will become warmer throughout this century, although there is no consensus about how precipitation will be affected. The most alarming scenarios project a permanent disruption of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, leading to greatly increased drought or destructive synergisms between regional and global climate change in the Amazon.

  12. The vulnerability of Amazon freshwater ecosystems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Castello, Leandro; McGrath, David G; Hess, Laura L; Coe, Michael T; Lefebvre, Paul A; Petry, Paulo; Macedo, Marcia N; Renó, Vivian F; Arantes, Caroline C

    2013-01-01

    ... at local and distant locations. Amazon freshwater ecosystems are suffering escalating impacts caused by expansions in deforestation, pollution, construction of dams and waterways, and overharvesting of animal and plant species...

  13. Amazon Forest Responses to Drought and Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    Deforestation and agricultural land uses provide a consistent source of ignitions along the Amazon frontier during the dry season. The risk of understory fires in Amazon forests is amplified by drought conditions, when fires at the forest edge may spread for weeks before rains begin. Fire activity also impacts the regional response of intact forests to drought through diffuse light effects and nutrient redistribution, highlighting the complexity of feedbacks in this coupled human and natural system. This talk will focus on recent advances in our understanding of fire-climate feedbacks in the Amazon, building on research themes initiated under NASA's Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). NASA's LBA program began in the wake of the 1997-1998 El Niño, a strong event that exposed the vulnerability of Amazon forests to drought and fire under current climate and projections of climate change. With forecasts of another strong El Niño event in 2015-2016, this talk will provide a multi-scale synthesis of Amazon forest responses to drought and fire based on field measurements, airborne lidar data, and satellite observations of fires, rainfall, and terrestrial water storage. These studies offer new insights into the mechanisms governing fire season severity in the southern Amazon and regional variability in carbon losses from understory fires. The contributions from remote sensing to our understanding of drought and fire in Amazon forests reflect the legacy of NASA's LBA program and the sustained commitment to interdisciplinary research across the Amazon region.

  14. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  15. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  16. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  17. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

    2011-07-01

    Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change

  18. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. J. van Soesbergen

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950–2000 and allows for examining impacts of population, climate and land use change as well as land and water management interventions on hydrology. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural to urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined scenarios of: climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon and discuss the likely pathways for adaptation to and mitigation against their worst effects. See Mulligan et al. (2013 for a similar analysis for the entire Amazon Basin.

  19. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins) and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950-2000 and allows for examining impacts of population, climate and land use change as well as land and water management interventions on hydrology. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural to urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined scenarios of: climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon and discuss the likely pathways for adaptation to and mitigation against their worst effects. See Mulligan et al. (2013) for a similar analysis for the entire Amazon Basin.

  20. Use and management of the natural resources of the Colombian Amazon rain forest: a biological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Yaneth Landínez Torres

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the main features associated with biological use practices and management of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon. The theoretical cut proposal contrasts biological level, the forms of appropriation of forest resources in indigenous and urban contexts depending on the importance that such activity involves the establishment of management strategies biodiversity in Colombia. In this way, provides an integrative perspective that will address conflict situations considering environmental factors not only biological but cultural in various scenarios , to give sustenance to the decisions made and provide a reasonable treatment that enables the implementation of environmental regulation mechanisms in especially in areas such as strategic biological Colombian Amazon. Finally, reflect on the importance of facilitating the functional analysis of the connections and interrelationships of ecosystem components, including human communities, sketching involving both biological and social guidelines for sustainable use of biodiversity.

  1. Soluble iron nutrients in Saharan dust over the central Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzolo, Joana A.; Barbosa, Cybelli G. G.; Borillo, Guilherme C.; Godoi, Ana F. L.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Andreoli, Rita V.; Manzi, Antônio O.; Sá, Marta O.; Alves, Eliane G.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Angelis, Isabella H.; Ditas, Florian; Saturno, Jorge; Moran-Zuloaga, Daniel; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Rosário, Nilton E.; Pauliquevis, Theotonio; Santos, Rosa M. N.; Yamamoto, Carlos I.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Artaxo, Paulo; Taylor, Philip E.; Godoi, Ricardo H. M.

    2017-02-01

    The intercontinental transport of aerosols from the Sahara desert plays a significant role in nutrient cycles in the Amazon rainforest, since it carries many types of minerals to these otherwise low-fertility lands. Iron is one of the micronutrients essential for plant growth, and its long-range transport might be an important source for the iron-limited Amazon rainforest. This study assesses the bioavailability of iron Fe(II) and Fe(III) in the particulate matter over the Amazon forest, which was transported from the Sahara desert (for the sake of our discussion, this term also includes the Sahel region). The sampling campaign was carried out above and below the forest canopy at the ATTO site (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory), a near-pristine area in the central Amazon Basin, from March to April 2015. Measurements reached peak concentrations for soluble Fe(III) (48 ng m-3), Fe(II) (16 ng m-3), Na (470 ng m-3), Ca (194 ng m-3), K (65 ng m-3), and Mg (89 ng m-3) during a time period of dust transport from the Sahara, as confirmed by ground-based and satellite remote sensing data and air mass backward trajectories. Dust sampled above the Amazon canopy included primary biological aerosols and other coarse particles up to 12 µm in diameter. Atmospheric transport of weathered Saharan dust, followed by surface deposition, resulted in substantial iron bioavailability across the rainforest canopy. The seasonal deposition of dust, rich in soluble iron, and other minerals is likely to assist both bacteria and fungi within the topsoil and on canopy surfaces, and especially benefit highly bioabsorbent species. In this scenario, Saharan dust can provide essential macronutrients and micronutrients to plant roots, and also directly to plant leaves. The influence of this input on the ecology of the forest canopy and topsoil is discussed, and we argue that this influence would likely be different from that of nutrients from the weathered Amazon bedrock, which otherwise provides the

  2. Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Divino (Jose Angelo); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the

  3. Business as Usual: Amazon.com and the Academic Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Ullen, Mary K.; Germain, Carol Anne

    2002-01-01

    In 1999, Steve Coffman proposed that libraries form a single interlibrary loan based entity patterned after Amazon.com. This study examined the suitability of Amazon.com's Web interface and record enhancements for academic libraries. Amazon.com could not deliver circulating monographs in the University at Albany Libraries' collection quickly…

  4. Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Divino (Jose Angelo); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThe Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the

  5. Introduction: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5)

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, S. T.; Artaxo, P.; Machado, L. A. T.; A. O. Manzi; SOUZA, R. A. F. de; SCHUMACHER, C.; Wang, J.; ANDREAE, M.O.; H. M. J. Barbosa; Fan, J.; G. Fisch; Goldstein, A.H.; Guenther, A.; J. L. Jimenez; Pöschl, U.

    2016-01-01

    The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin for 2 years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and ...

  6. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  7. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  8. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

    2017-06-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

  9. The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.

    2009-01-01

    The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, is introduced as a possible improvement. An example from the Brazilian Amazon shows that by including an integrated set of factor

  10. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system

    OpenAIRE

    Soesbergen, A.J.J.; M. Mulligan

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the application of WaterWorld (www.policysupport.org/waterworld) to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural-to-urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined plausible scenarios of climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth ...

  11. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

    OpenAIRE

    A. J. J. van Soesbergen; Mulligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins) and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of pr...

  12. Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system

    OpenAIRE

    A. J. J. van Soesbergen; Mulligan, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the application of WaterWorld (www.policysupport.org/waterworld) to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural-to-urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined plausible scenarios of climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth ...

  13. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  16. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  17. Does the Amazon suffer from BSE prevention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elferink, E.V.; Nonhebel, S.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the last decade, large-scale production of soybeans has been a major driver of the enhanced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that these soybeans are mainly exported to the EU to substitute for the BSE related banned meat and bone meal in livestock feed. This strongly suggests a link

  18. Does the Amazon suffer from BSE prevention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elferink, E.V.; Nonhebel, S.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the last decade, large-scale production of soybeans has been a major driver of the enhanced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that these soybeans are mainly exported to the EU to substitute for the BSE related banned meat and bone meal in livestock feed. This strongly suggests a link

  19. Amazon Flooded Forest. Teacher Resource Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvall, Todd

    This teacher's resource guide was created to accompany the Amazon Flooded Forest exhibit at the Oregon Zoo. The enclosed lessons and activities are designed to extend into several aspects of daily curriculum including science, math, reading, writing, speaking, and geography. The materials are intended for use in grades 3-6 although most activities…

  20. Principal Connection / Amazon and the Whole Teacher

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerr, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    A recent controversy over Amazon's culture has strong implications for the whole child approach, and it offers powerful lessons for principals. A significant difference between the culture of so many businesses today and the culture at good schools is that in good schools, the welfare of the employees is very important. Student success is the…

  1. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers,

  2. Polycystic echinococcosis in Pacas, Amazon region, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, Pedro; Baquedano, Laura E; Sanchez, Elisabeth; Aramburu, Javier; Gomez-Puerta, Luis A; Mamani, Victor J; Gavidia, Cesar M

    2015-03-01

    In the Peruvian Amazon, paca meat is consumed by humans. To determine human risk for polycystic echinococcosis, we examined wild pacas from 2 villages; 15 (11.7%) of 128 were infected with Echinococcus vogeli tapeworms. High E. vogeli prevalence among pacas indicates potential risk for humans living in E. vogeli-contaminated areas.

  3. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers,

  4. Amazon Flooded Forest. Teacher Resource Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvall, Todd

    This teacher's resource guide was created to accompany the Amazon Flooded Forest exhibit at the Oregon Zoo. The enclosed lessons and activities are designed to extend into several aspects of daily curriculum including science, math, reading, writing, speaking, and geography. The materials are intended for use in grades 3-6 although most activities…

  5. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  6. An overview of malaria transmission from the perspective of Amazon Anopheles vectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo FP Pimenta

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In the Americas, areas with a high risk of malaria transmission are mainly located in the Amazon Forest, which extends across nine countries. One keystone step to understanding the Plasmodium life cycle in Anopheles species from the Amazon Region is to obtain experimentally infected mosquito vectors. Several attempts to colonise Ano- pheles species have been conducted, but with only short-lived success or no success at all. In this review, we review the literature on malaria transmission from the perspective of its Amazon vectors. Currently, it is possible to develop experimental Plasmodium vivax infection of the colonised and field-captured vectors in laboratories located close to Amazonian endemic areas. We are also reviewing studies related to the immune response to P. vivax infection of Anopheles aquasalis, a coastal mosquito species. Finally, we discuss the importance of the modulation of Plasmodium infection by the vector microbiota and also consider the anopheline genomes. The establishment of experimental mosquito infections with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium berghei parasites that could provide interesting models for studying malaria in the Amazonian scenario is important. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the development of the parasites in New World vectors is crucial in order to better determine the interaction process and vectorial competence.

  7. Evaluation of last extreme drought events in Amazon basin using remotely sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panisset, Jéssica S.; Gouveia, Célia M.; Libonati, Renata; Peres, Leonardo; Machado-Silva, Fausto; França, Daniela A.; França, José R. A.

    2017-04-01

    Amazon basin has experienced several intense droughts among which were highlighted last recent ones in 2005 and 2010. Climate models suggest these events will be even more frequent due to higher concentration of greenhouse gases that are also driven forward by alteration in forest dynamics. Environmental and social impacts demand to identify these intense droughts and the behavior of climate parameters that affect vegetation. This present study also identifies a recent intense drought in Amazon basin during 2015. Meteorological parameters and vegetation indices suggest this event was the most severe already registered in the region. We have used land surface temperature (LST), vegetation indices, rainfall and shortwave radiation from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and compare droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2015. Our results show singularities among the three climate extreme events. The austral winter was the most affected season in 2005 and 2010, but not in 2015 when austral summer presented extreme conditions. Precipitation indicates epicenter of 2005 in west Amazon corroborating with previous studies. In 2010, the west region was strongly affected again together with the northwest and the southeast areas. However, 2015 epicenters were concentrated in the east of the basin. In 2015, shortwave radiation has exceeded the maximum values of 2005 and temperature the maximum value of 2010. Vegetation indices have shown positive and negative anomalies. Despite of heterogenous response of Amazon forest to drought, hybrid vegetation indices using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and LST highlights the exceptionality of 2015 drought episode that exhibits higher vegetation water stress than the cases of 2010 and 2005. Finally, this work has shown how meteorological parameters influence droughts and the effects on vegetation in Amazon basin. Complexity of climate, ecosystem heterogeneity and high diversity of Amazon forest are response by idiosyncrasies of each drought. All

  8. Large expansion of oil industry in the Ecuadorian Amazon: biodiversity vulnerability and conservation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessmann, Janeth; Fajardo, Javier; Muñoz, Jesús; Bonaccorso, Elisa

    2016-07-01

    Ecuador will experience a significant expansion of the oil industry in its Amazonian region, one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. In view of the changes that are about to come, we explore the conflicts between oil extraction interests and biodiversity protection and apply systematic conservation planning to identify priority areas that should be protected in different oil exploitation scenarios. First, we quantified the current extent of oil blocks and protected zones and their overlap with two biodiversity indicators: 25 ecosystems and 745 species (whose distributions were estimated via species distribution models). With the new scheme of oil exploitation, oil blocks cover 68% (68,196 km(2)) of the Ecuadorian Amazon; half of it occupied by new blocks open for bids in the southern Amazon. This region is especially vulnerable to biodiversity losses, because peaks of species diversity, 19 ecosystems, and a third of its protected zones coincide spatially with oil blocks. Under these circumstances, we used Marxan software to identify priority areas for conservation outside oil blocks, but their coverage was insufficient to completely represent biodiversity. Instead, priority areas that include southern oil blocks provide a higher representation of biodiversity indicators. Therefore, preserving the southern Amazon becomes essential to improve the protection of Amazonian biodiversity in Ecuador, and avoiding oil exploitation in these areas (33% of the extent of southern oil blocks) should be considered a conservation alternative. Also, it is highly recommended to improve current oil exploitation technology to reduce environmental impacts in the region, especially within five oil blocks that we identified as most valuable for the conservation of biodiversity. The application of these and other recommendations depends heavily on the Ecuadorian government, which needs to find a better balance between the use of the Amazon resources and biodiversity conservation.

  9. Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleska, Scott R; Didan, Kamel; Huete, Alfredo R; da Rocha, Humberto R

    2007-10-26

    Coupled climate-carbon cycle models suggest that Amazon forests are vulnerable to both long- and short-term droughts, but satellite observations showed a large-scale photosynthetic green-up in intact evergreen forests of the Amazon in response to a short, intense drought in 2005. These findings suggest that Amazon forests, although threatened by human-caused deforestation and fire and possibly by more severe long-term droughts, may be more resilient to climate changes than ecosystem models assume.

  10. Causes and impacts of the 2005 Amazon drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng Ning; Yoon, Jin-Ho [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, MD 20742 (United States); Marengo, Jose A; Nobre, Carlos A [CPTEC, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista (Brazil); Subramaniam, Ajit [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964 (United States); Mariotti, Annarita [Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, MD 20742 (United States); Neelin, J David [Department Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)], E-mail: zeng@atmos.umd.edu

    2008-01-15

    A rare drought in the Amazon culminated in 2005, leading to near record-low streamflows, small Amazon river plume, and greatly enhanced fire frequency. This episode was caused by the combination of 2002-03 El Nino and a dry spell in 2005 attributable to a warm subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Analysis for 1979-2005 reveals that the Atlantic influence is comparable to the better-known Pacific linkage. While the Pacific influence is typically locked to the wet season, the 2005 Atlantic impact concentrated in the Amazon dry season when its hydroecosystem is most vulnerable. Such mechanisms may have wide-ranging implications for the future of the Amazon rainforest.

  11. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-04-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

  12. Combined effects of climate change and forest clearing on the Amazon vegetation: Projections for 2080-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2007-05-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.

  13. Antibacterial activity of Brazilian Amazon plant extracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Barbosa Suffredini

    Full Text Available Infections caused by multiresistant bacteria are a widespread problem, especially in intensive care units. New antibiotics are necessary, and we need to search for alternatives, including natural products. Brazil is one of the hottest spots in the world in terms of biodiversity, but little is known about the chemical and pharmacological properties of most of the plants found in the Amazon rain forest and the Atlantic Forest. We screened 1,220 organic and aqueous extracts, obtained from Amazon and Atlantic rain forest plants, against Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecalis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and E. coli. Seventeen organic and aqueous extracts obtained from 16 plants showed activity against both Gram-positive bacteria. None of the extracts showed relevant activity against the Gram-negative E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

  14. Selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asner, Gregory P; Knapp, David E; Broadbent, Eben N; Oliveira, Paulo J C; Keller, Michael; Silva, Jose N

    2005-10-21

    Amazon deforestation has been measured by remote sensing for three decades. In comparison, selective logging has been mostly invisible to satellites. We developed a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote-sensing analysis of selective logging in the top five timber-producing states of the Brazilian Amazon. Logged areas ranged from 12,075 to 19,823 square kilometers per year (+/-14%) between 1999 and 2002, equivalent to 60 to 123% of previously reported deforestation area. Up to 1200 square kilometers per year of logging were observed on conservation lands. Each year, 27 million to 50 million cubic meters of wood were extracted, and a gross flux of approximately 0.1 billion metric tons of carbon was destined for release to the atmosphere by logging.

  15. [Folklore and popular medicine in the Amazon].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrique, Márcio Couto

    2009-01-01

    This discussion of the relations between folklore and popular medicine in the Amazon takes Canuto Azevedo's story "Filhos do boto" (Children of the porpoise) as an analytical reference point. Replete with elements of cultural reality, folk tales can serve as historical testimonies expressing clashes between different traditions. Folk records are fruit of what is often a quarrelsome dialogue between folklorists, social scientists, physicians, and pajés and their followers, and their analysis should take into account the conditions under which they were produced. Based on the imaginary attached to the figure of the porpoise--a seductive creature with healing powers--the article explores how we might expand knowledge of popular medicine as practiced in the Amazon, where the shamanistic rite known as pajelança cabocla has a strong presence.

  16. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  17. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  18. Health Concerns in the Amazon Region

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-04-09

    Residents of the Amazon region of South America contend with a number of health threats - from mosquito-borne diseases to difficulty accessing doctors and healthcare facilities in such a vast area. This podcast helps explore some of the health issues in the region and what's being done to address them.  Created: 4/9/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 4/9/2009.

  19. Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Oliver L.; Aragao, Luiz; Lewis, Simon L.; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, J.; Lopez Gonzalez, G.; Malhi, Y; A. Monteagudo; J. Peacock; Quesada, C.A.; Van Der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, S; Amaral, Ieda; Arroyo, L.; Aymard, Gerardo

    2009-01-01

    Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed wh...

  20. Cost-effectiveness of the vaccine against human papillomavirus in the Brazilian Amazon region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Allex Jardim da; Ferreira, Luiz Carlos de Lima; Neto, Giacomo Balbinotto

    2013-01-01

    To assess the cost-utility of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the prevention of cervical cancer in the Brazilian Amazon region. A Markov cohort model was developed to simulate the natural evolution of HPV and its progress to cervical cancer, considering the current preventive programs and treatment costs. The one-year transition probabilities were mainly based on empirical data of local and national studies. The model evaluated the addition of the vaccine to three cervical cancer-screening scenarios (0, 3 or 10 exams throughout life). The scenario of three Pap tests resulted in satisfactory calibration (base case). The addition of HPV vaccination would reduce by 35% the incidence of cervical cancer (70% vaccination coverage). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$ 825 for each quality-adjusted life year gained. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of this result, and duration of immunity was the parameter with greater variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Vaccination has a favorable profile in terms of cost-utility, and its inclusion in the immunization schedule would result in a substantial reduction in incidence and mortality of invasive cervical cancer in the Brazilian Amazon region. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  1. Potential groundwater contribution to Amazon evapotranspiration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fan

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate and land ecosystem models simulate a dry-season vegetation stress in the Amazon forest, but observations show enhanced growth in response to higher radiation under less cloudy skies, indicating an adequate water supply. Proposed mechanisms include larger soil water store and deeper roots in nature and the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution. Here we assess the importance of the upward soil water flux from the groundwater driven by capillarity. We present a map of water table depth from observations and groundwater modeling, and a map of potential capillary flux these water table depths can sustain. The maps show that the water table beneath the Amazon can be quite shallow in lowlands and river valleys (<5 m in 36% and <10 m in 60% of Amazonia. The water table can potentially sustain a capillary flux of >2.1 mm day−1 to the land surface averaged over Amazonia, but varies from 0.6 to 3.7 mm day−1 across nine study sites. Current models simulate a large-scale reduction in dry-season photosynthesis under today's climate and a possible dieback under projected future climate with a longer dry season, converting the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a source and accelerating warming. The inclusion of groundwater and capillary flux may modify the model results.

  2. Sensitivity of Amazon rainforest to drought: results from forest inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteucci G

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A recent study based on inventory data from the RAINFOR network, published in the journal Science, reported a relevant effect of an anomalous dry year (2005 on biomass accumulation and mortality in Amazon old-growth forests. Results were obtained by comparing inventory data taken before and after the dry year and point to biomass losses in consequence of drought. These losses were driven by large mortality increases at some plots and by small but diffuse declines in growth. If upscaled to the area affected by drought, the release of carbon (1.21 PgC would be much larger than that resulting from deforestation in the area (0.3÷0.8 PgC and would offset the carbon gained in the recent past (0.5 PgC. As the frequency of extreme dry years is expected to increase in future climate scenarios, regional carbon balances may be strongly impacted with a positive feedback on climate change. The main results of the paper are briefly presented and commented.

  3. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  5. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  6. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  7. Introduction: Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, S. T.; Artaxo, P.; Machado, L. A. T.; Manzi, A. O.; Souza, R. A. F.; Schumacher, C.; Wang, J.; Andreae, M. O.; Barbosa, H. M. J.; Fan, J.; Fisch, G.; Goldstein, A. H.; Guenther, A.; Jimenez, J. L.; Pöschl, U.; Silva Dias, M. A.; Smith, J. N.; Wendisch, M.

    2016-04-01

    The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin for 2 years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and quantify these linked processes, first under natural conditions to obtain a baseline and second when altered by the effects of human activities. To this end, the pollution plume from the Manaus metropolis, superimposed on the background conditions of the central Amazon basin, served as a natural laboratory. The present paper, as the introduction to the special issue of GoAmazon2014/5, presents the context and motivation of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The nine research sites, including the characteristics and instrumentation of each site, are presented. The sites range from time point zero (T0) upwind of the pollution, to T1 in the midst of the pollution, to T2 just downwind of the pollution, to T3 furthest downwind of the pollution (70 km). In addition to the ground sites, a low-altitude G-159 Gulfstream I (G-1) observed the atmospheric boundary layer and low clouds, and a high-altitude Gulfstream G550 (HALO) operated in the free troposphere. During the 2-year experiment, two Intensive Operating Periods (IOP1 and IOP2) also took place that included additional specialized research instrumentation at the ground sites as well as flights of the two aircraft. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP1 was carried out from 1 February to 31 March 2014 in the wet season. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP2 was conducted from 15 August to 15 October 2014 in the dry season. The G-1 aircraft flew during both IOP1 and IOP2, and the HALO aircraft flew during IOP2. In the context of the Amazon basin, the two IOPs also correspond to the clean and

  8. Disruption of hydroecological equilibrium in southwest Amazon mediated by drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Kim, Hyungjun; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Famiglietti, James S.; Oki, Taikan

    2015-09-01

    The impacts of droughts on the Amazon ecosystem have been broadly discussed in recent years, but a comprehensive understanding of the consequences is still missing. In this study, we show evidence of a fragile hydrological equilibrium in the western Amazon. While drainage systems located near the equator and the western Amazon do not show water deficit in years with average climate conditions, this equilibrium can be broken during drought events. More importantly, we show that this effect is persistent, taking years until the normal hydrological patterns are reestablished. We show clear links between persistent changes in forest canopy structure and changes in hydrological patterns, revealing physical evidence of hydrological mechanisms that may lead to permanent changes in parts of the Amazon ecosystem. If prospects of increasing drought frequency are confirmed, a change in the current hydroecological patterns in the western Amazon could take place in less than a decade.

  9. Amazon soils : a reconnaissance of the soils of the Brazilian Amazon region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sombroek, W.G.

    1966-01-01

    The study deals with soils of the Brazilian part of the Amazon basin. Most soils are Latosols, some with soft or hardened plinthite. The Latosols are characterized by a latosolic B horizon as defined in Brazil.Plinthite, its formation and morphology were extensively described. Five main types of har

  10. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  11. Green Ocean Amazon 2014/15 – Scaling Amazon Carbon Water Couplings Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubey, Manvendra [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Parket, Harrison [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Myers, Katherine [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rahn, Thom [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Christoffersson, B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Wunch, Debra [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); Wennberg, Paul [California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Forests soak up 25% of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic fossil energy use (10 Gt C y-1), moderating its atmospheric accumulation. How this terrestrial CO2 uptake will evolve with climate change in the 21st Century is largely unknown. Rainforests are the most active ecosystems, with the Amazon basin storing 120 Gt C as biomass and exchanging 18 Gt C y-1 of CO2 via photosynthesis and respiration and fixing carbon at 2-3 kg C m-2 y-1. Furthermore, the intense hydrologic and carbon cycles are tightly coupled in the Amazon where about half of the water is recycled by evapotranspiration and the other half imported from the ocean by Northeasterly trade winds. Climate models predict a drying in the Amazon with reduced carbon uptake while observationally guided assessments indicate sustained uptake. We set out to resolve this huge discrepancy in the size and sign of the future Amazon carbon cycle by performing the first simultaneous regional-scale high-frequency measurements of atmospheric CO2, H2O, HOD, CH4, N2O, and CO at the T3 site in Manacupuru, Brazil, as part of DOE's GoAmazon 2014/15 project. Our data will be used to inform and develop DOE's Community Land Model (CLM) on the tropical carbon-water couplings at the appropriate grid scale (10-50 km). Our measurements will also validate the CO2 data from Japan's Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2 satellite (launched in July, 2014). Our data addresses these science questions: 1. How does ecosystem heterogeneity and climate variability influence the rainforest carbon cycle? 2. How well do current tropical ecosystem models simulate the observed regional carbon cycle? 3. Does nitrogen deposition (from the Manaus, Brazil, plume) enhance rainforest carbon uptake?

  12. Proliferation of hydroelectric dams in the Andean Amazon and implications for Andes-Amazon connectivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Finer

    Full Text Available Due to rising energy demands and abundant untapped potential, hydropower projects are rapidly increasing in the Neotropics. This is especially true in the wet and rugged Andean Amazon, where regional governments are prioritizing new hydroelectric dams as the centerpiece of long-term energy plans. However, the current planning for hydropower lacks adequate regional and basin-scale assessment of potential ecological impacts. This lack of strategic planning is particularly problematic given the intimate link between the Andes and Amazonian flood plain, together one of the most species rich zones on Earth. We examined the potential ecological impacts, in terms of river connectivity and forest loss, of the planned proliferation of hydroelectric dams across all Andean tributaries of the Amazon River. Considering data on the full portfolios of existing and planned dams, along with data on roads and transmission line systems, we developed a new conceptual framework to estimate the relative impacts of all planned dams. There are plans for 151 new dams greater than 2 MW over the next 20 years, more than a 300% increase. These dams would include five of the six major Andean tributaries of the Amazon. Our ecological impact analysis classified 47% of the potential new dams as high impact and just 19% as low impact. Sixty percent of the dams would cause the first major break in connectivity between protected Andean headwaters and the lowland Amazon. More than 80% would drive deforestation due to new roads, transmission lines, or inundation. We conclude with a discussion of three major policy implications of these findings. 1 There is a critical need for further strategic regional and basin scale evaluation of dams. 2 There is an urgent need for a strategic plan to maintain Andes-Amazon connectivity. 3 Reconsideration of hydropower as a low-impact energy source in the Neotropics.

  13. “Un piccolo pataccio al rio dell’Amazzoni”: European piracy and Italian projects on Amazon at the time of the Hispanic Monarchy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alírio Cardoso

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the early seventeenth century, navigators and merchants of different nations attended the waters of the territory now known as Brazilian Amazon, corresponding to the ancient State of Maranhão and Grão-Pará (1621-1770. The objective of this paper is to discuss the relationship between Portugal and Spain with other European competitors in Atlantic scenario using as case study attempts to Tuscany navigation to the north of Portuguese America.

  14. [The Amazon Sanitation Plan (1940-1942)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Rômulo de Paula; Hochman, Gilberto

    2007-12-01

    The article addresses the Amazon Sanitation Plan and the political context in which it was formulated between 1940 and 1941. It examines the role of Getúlio Vargas, the activities of the plan's main protagonists (such as Evandro Chagas, João de Barros Barreto, and Valério Konder), its key proposals, and its demise as of 1942 upon creation of the Special Public Health Service (Sesp), which grew out of cooperation agreements between Brazil and the US following both nations' involvement in World War II. A reproduction of the Plan as published in the Arquivos de Higiene in 1941 is included.

  15. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  16. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  17. Evolution of Land Use in the Brazilian Amazon: From Frontier Expansion to Market Chain Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana S. Soler

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural census data and fieldwork observations are used to analyze changes in land cover/use intensity across Rondônia and Mato Grosso states along the agricultural frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. Results show that the development of land use is strongly related to land distribution structure. While large farms have increased their share of annual and perennial crops, small and medium size farms have strongly contributed to the development of beef and milk market chains in both Rondônia and Mato Grosso. Land use intensification has occurred in the form of increased use of machinery, labor in agriculture and stocking rates of cattle herds. Regional and national demands have improved infrastructure and productivity. The data presented show that the distinct pathways of land use development are related to accessibility to markets and processing industry as well as to the agricultural colonization history of the region. The data analyzed do not provide any indication of frontier stagnation, i.e., the slowdown of agricultural expansion, in the Brazilian Amazon. Instead of frontier stagnation, the data analyzed indicate that intensification processes in consolidated areas as well as recent agricultural expansion into forest areas are able to explain the cycle of expansion and retraction of the agricultural frontier into the Amazon region. The evolution of land use is useful for scenario analysis of both land cover change and land use intensification and provides insights into the role of market development and policies on land use.

  18. ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barklow, T; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision...

  19. Carbon uptake by mature Amazon forests has mitigated Amazon nations' carbon emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W

    2017-12-01

    Several independent lines of evidence suggest that Amazon forests have provided a significant carbon sink service, and also that the Amazon carbon sink in intact, mature forests may now be threatened as a result of different processes. There has however been no work done to quantify non-land-use-change forest carbon fluxes on a national basis within Amazonia, or to place these national fluxes and their possible changes in the context of the major anthropogenic carbon fluxes in the region. Here we present a first attempt to interpret results from ground-based monitoring of mature forest carbon fluxes in a biogeographically, politically, and temporally differentiated way. Specifically, using results from a large long-term network of forest plots, we estimate the Amazon biomass carbon balance over the last three decades for the different regions and nine nations of Amazonia, and evaluate the magnitude and trajectory of these differentiated balances in relation to major national anthropogenic carbon emissions. The sink of carbon into mature forests has been remarkably geographically ubiquitous across Amazonia, being substantial and persistent in each of the five biogeographic regions within Amazonia. Between 1980 and 2010, it has more than mitigated the fossil fuel emissions of every single national economy, except that of Venezuela. For most nations (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname) the sink has probably additionally mitigated all anthropogenic carbon emissions due to Amazon deforestation and other land use change. While the sink has weakened in some regions since 2000, our analysis suggests that Amazon nations which are able to conserve large areas of natural and semi-natural landscape still contribute globally-significant carbon sequestration. Mature forests across all of Amazonia have contributed significantly to mitigating climate change for decades. Yet Amazon nations have not directly benefited from providing this global scale

  20. Protecting the Amazon with protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Robert; Moore, Nathan J; Arima, Eugenio; Perz, Stephen; Simmons, Cynthia; Caldas, Marcellus; Vergara, Dante; Bohrer, Claudio

    2009-06-30

    This article addresses climate-tipping points in the Amazon Basin resulting from deforestation. It applies a regional climate model to assess whether the system of protected areas in Brazil is able to avoid such tipping points, with massive conversion to semiarid vegetation, particularly along the south and southeastern margins of the basin. The regional climate model produces spatially distributed annual rainfall under a variety of external forcing conditions, assuming that all land outside protected areas is deforested. It translates these results into dry season impacts on resident ecosystems and shows that Amazonian dry ecosystems in the southern and southeastern basin do not desiccate appreciably and that extensive areas experience an increase in precipitation. Nor do the moist forests dry out to an excessive amount. Evidently, Brazilian environmental policy has created a sustainable core of protected areas in the Amazon that buffers against potential climate-tipping points and protects the drier ecosystems of the basin. Thus, all efforts should be made to manage them effectively.

  1. Isoprene photochemistry over the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yingjun; Brito, Joel; Dorris, Matthew R.; Rivera-Rios, Jean C.; Seco, Roger; Bates, Kelvin H.; Artaxo, Paulo; Duvoisin, Sergio; Keutsch, Frank N.; Kim, Saewung; Goldstein, Allen H.; Guenther, Alex B.; Manzi, Antonio O.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Springston, Stephen R.; Watson, Thomas B.; McKinney, Karena A.; Martin, Scot T.

    2016-05-01

    Isoprene photooxidation is a major driver of atmospheric chemistry over forested regions. Isoprene reacts with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and molecular oxygen to produce isoprene peroxy radicals (ISOPOO). These radicals can react with hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) to dominantly produce hydroxyhydroperoxides (ISOPOOH). They can also react with nitric oxide (NO) to largely produce methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACR). Unimolecular isomerization and bimolecular reactions with organic peroxy radicals are also possible. There is uncertainty about the relative importance of each of these pathways in the atmosphere and possible changes because of anthropogenic pollution. Herein, measurements of ISOPOOH and MVK + MACR concentrations are reported over the central region of the Amazon basin during the wet season. The research site, downwind of an urban region, intercepted both background and polluted air masses during the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. Under background conditions, the confidence interval for the ratio of the ISOPOOH concentration to that of MVK + MACR spanned 0.4-0.6. This result implies a ratio of the reaction rate of ISOPOO with HO2 to that with NO of approximately unity. A value of unity is significantly smaller than simulated at present by global chemical transport models for this important, nominally low-NO, forested region of Earth. Under polluted conditions, when the concentrations of reactive nitrogen compounds were high (>1 ppb), ISOPOOH concentrations dropped below the instrumental detection limit (rainforest.

  2. Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Oliver L; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Lewis, Simon L; Fisher, Joshua B; Lloyd, Jon; López-González, Gabriela; Malhi, Yadvinder; Monteagudo, Abel; Peacock, Julie; Quesada, Carlos A; van der Heijden, Geertje; Almeida, Samuel; Amaral, Iêda; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo; Baker, Tim R; Bánki, Olaf; Blanc, Lilian; Bonal, Damien; Brando, Paulo; Chave, Jerome; de Oliveira, Atila Cristina Alves; Cardozo, Nallaret Dávila; Czimczik, Claudia I; Feldpausch, Ted R; Freitas, Maria Aparecida; Gloor, Emanuel; Higuchi, Niro; Jiménez, Eliana; Lloyd, Gareth; Meir, Patrick; Mendoza, Casimiro; Morel, Alexandra; Neill, David A; Nepstad, Daniel; Patiño, Sandra; Peñuela, Maria Cristina; Prieto, Adriana; Ramírez, Fredy; Schwarz, Michael; Silva, Javier; Silveira, Marcos; Thomas, Anne Sota; Steege, Hans Ter; Stropp, Juliana; Vásquez, Rodolfo; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Alvarez Dávila, Esteban; Andelman, Sandy; Andrade, Ana; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Erwin, Terry; Di Fiore, Anthony; Honorio C, Eurídice; Keeling, Helen; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, William F; Peña Cruz, Antonio; Pitman, Nigel C A; Núñez Vargas, Percy; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Rudas, Agustín; Salamão, Rafael; Silva, Natalino; Terborgh, John; Torres-Lezama, Armando

    2009-03-06

    Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 x 10(15) to 1.6 x 10(15) grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.

  3. Copepods and fishes in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, Vernon E.

    1998-06-01

    The Amazon basin comprises the largest river ecosystem in the world (7 million km 2) with annual high and low water peaks and a constant temperature near 29°C. Some 2000 fish species and 40 species of free-living copepods are known to occur in Amazonia. The free-living forms serve as food for most larval fishes and some adults, but they also transmit several parasites including representatives of the nematode family Camallanidae. About three dozen species of parasitic copepods have been described from the Brazilian Amazon. Females of Amazonian parasitic copepods are found on skin, gill filaments, gill rakers or within the nasal fossae. Parasitic copepods are found on fishes that are from a few millimeters long up to those over 2 m in length and they are usually quite host specific. All have body pigmentation in different patterns and colors (frequently blues, such as cerulean, cobalt, spectrum, smalt or campanula). It is suggested that the coloration serves to attract specific host fish. Copepods have evolved adaptations for attachment and feeding, especially in the second antennae and endopods. Examples of progenesis, phoresis and commensalism are shown. Some species produce pathology such as a tourniquet effect, hyperplasia, blood loss and anemia, and can kill fishes by limiting their respiration.

  4. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  5. Diversity of palm uses in the western Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paniagua Zambrana, N.Y.; Byg, A.; Svenning, J.-C.;

    2007-01-01

    Abstract  We used palm knowledge to understand the interaction between people and the rainforests and the factors that influence this dynamic process. We interviewed 278 informants in 12 villages in the Pastaza and Madidi areas of the western Amazon basin. Together they used 38 different palm......, the great variation in the knowledge they possess, and the fact that the differences between villages is so great, are important elements to consider when developing management plans for the sustainable use of the rainforest resources in the western Amazon. Keywords  Local knowledge - Palms - Western Amazon...

  6. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  7. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  8. Maximizing Amazonia's Ecosystem Services: Juggling the potential for carbon storage, agricultural yield and biodiversity in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, C. S.; Foley, J. A.; Gerber, J. S.; Polasky, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Amazon is not only an exceptionally biodiverse and carbon-rich tract of tropical forest, it is also a case study in land use change. Over the next forty years it will continue to experience pressure from an urbanizing and increasingly affluent populace: under a business-as-usual scenario, global cropland, pasture and biofuels systems will carry on expanding, while the Amazon's carbon storage potential will likely become another viable revenue source under REDD+. Balancing those competing land use pressures ought also take into account Amazonia's high - but heterogeneous - biodiversity. Knowing where Amazonia has opportunities to make efficient or optimal trade offs between carbon storage, agricultural production and biodiversity can allow policymakers to direct or influence LUC drivers. This analysis uses a spatially-explicit model that takes climate and management into account to quantify the potential agricultural yield of both the Amazon's most important agricultural commodities - sugar, soy and maize - as well as several that are going to come into increasing prominence, including palm oil. In addition, it maps the potential for carbon to be stored in forest biomass and relative species richness across Amazonia. We then compare carbon storage, agricultural yield and species richness and identify areas where efficient trade offs occur between food, carbon, and biodiversity - three critical ecosystem goods and services provided by the world's largest tropical forest.

  9. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  10. Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valle, Denis; Clark, James

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burden. Yet, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increases malaria incidence, which implies the opposite relationship between forest conservation and malaria. We compare the effect of these environmental factors on malaria and explore its implications. Using a large malaria dataset (~1,300,000 positive malaria tests collected over ~4.5 million km(2)), satellite imagery, permutation tests, and hierarchical Bayesian regressions, we show that greater forest cover (as a proxy for proximity to forest fringes) tends to be associated with higher malaria incidence, and that forest cover effect was 25 times greater than the land clearing effect, the often cited culprit of malaria in the region. These findings have important implications for land use/land cover (LULC) policies in the region. We find that cities close to protected areas (PA's) tend to have higher malaria incidence than cities far from PA's. Using future LULC scenarios, we show that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might result in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban health posts. Our results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emissions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increased malaria morbidity, and that conservation initiatives should consider adopting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate science fields, government ministries, and global initiatives (e.g., Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation; Millenium Development Goals; Roll Back Malaria; and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), will be required to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these

  11. Use and management of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon: cultural particularities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Landínez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the main cultural particularities: worldviews and ways of knowing that are associated with the use and management practices of forest resources in the Colombian Amazon. The theoretical cutting proposal contrasts, cultural level, the forms of appropriation of forest resources in indigenous and urban contexts in light of the importance that such activity involves the establishment of management strategies biodiversity in Colombia. Thus, offers an integrated perspective that will address environmental situations considering conflicting factors not only biological but cultural in various scenarios, to give substance to the decisions made and provide a reasonable treatment that enables the implementation of environmental regulatory mechanisms in strategic special biological areas as the Colombian Amazon. Finally, reflect on the importance of facilitating the functional analysis of the connections and interrelationships of ecosystem components, including human communities, to sketch involving both biological and social guidelines for sustainable use of biodiversity.

  12. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  13. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  14. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  15. Potential groundwater contribution to Amazon evapotranspiration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Fan

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate and land ecosystem models simulate a dry-season vegetation stress in the Amazon forest, but observations do not support these results, indicating adequate water supply. Proposed mechanisms include larger soil water store and deeper roots in nature and the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution, both absent in the models. Here we provide a first-order assessment of the potential importance of the upward soil water flux from the groundwater driven by capillarity. We present a map of equilibrium water table depth from available observations and a groundwater model simulation constrained by these observations. We then present a map of maximum capillary flux these water table depths, combined with the fine-textured soils in the Amazon, can potentially support. The maps show that the water table beneath the Amazon can be shallow in lowlands and river valleys (<5 m in 36% and <10 m in 60% of Amazonia. These water table depths can potentially accommodate a maximum capillary flux of 2.1 mm day−1 to the land surface averaged over Amazonia, but varies from 0.6 to 3.7 mm day−1 across nine study sites.

    We note that the results presented here are based on limited observations and simple equilibrium model calculations, and as such, have important limitations and must be interpreted accordingly. The potential capillary fluxes are not indicative of their contribution to the actual evapotranspiration, and they are only an assessment of the possible rate at which this flux can occur, to illustrate the power of soil capillary force acting on a shallow water table in fine textured soils. They may over-estimate the actual flux where the surface soils remain moist. Their contribution to the actual evapotranspiration can only be assessed through fully coupled model simulation of the dynamic feedbacks between soil water and groundwater with sub-daily climate forcing. The equilibrium water table

  16. Remote sensing in forestry: Application to the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Tardin, A. T.; Dossantos, A.; Filho, P. H.; Shimabukuro, Y. E.

    1981-01-01

    The utilization of satellite remote sensing in forestry is reviewed with emphasis on studies performed for the Brazilian Amazon Region. Timber identification, deforestation, and pasture degradation after deforestation are discussed.

  17. Evidence of Apeu Virus Infection in Wild Monkeys, Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Danilo B; Luiz, Ana Paula Moreira Franco; Fagundes, Alexandre; Pinto, Carla Amaral; Bonjardim, Cláudio A; Trindade, Giliane S; Kroon, Erna G; Abrahão, Jônatas S; Ferreira, Paulo C P

    2016-03-01

    Orthobunyaviruses are arboviruses in which at least 30 members are human pathogens. The members of group C orthobunyaviruses were first isolated in the Brazilian Amazon in 1950, since that time little information is accumulated about ecology and the medical impact of these virus groups in Brazil. Herein, we describe the evidence of Apeu virus (APEUV; an Orthobunyavirus member) infection in wild monkeys from the Brazilian Amazon forest. APEUV was detected by using a neutralizing antibody in serum and its RNA, suggesting past and acute infection of Amazonian monkeys by this virus. These results altogether represent an important contribution of orthobunyavirus ecology in the Amazon and an update about recent circulation and risk for humans with expansion of the cities to Amazon forest.

  18. Lipids of Amazon Caimans: A source of fatty acids

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ariane

    2016-07-20

    Jul 20, 2016 ... crocodilus and Melanosuchus niger (native to the Brazilian Amazon flooded forest) was determined in samples of a ... Alligatoridae and are found in South American countries. Like any kind of fauna ..... functional substance.

  19. Four years of ozone measurements in the Central Amazon - Absorption mechanisms and reactions within the rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Stefan; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Tsokankunku, Anywhere; Saturno, Jorge; Souza, Rodrigo; Trebs, Ivonne; Sörgel, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    The ATTO (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory) site (02°08'38.8''S, 58°59'59.5''W) is located in the remote Amazon rainforest, allowing atmospheric and forest studies away from nearby anthropogenic emission sources. Starting with continuous measurements of vertical mixing ratio profiles of H2O, CO2 and O3 in April 2012 at 8 heights between 0.05 m and 80 m above ground, the longest continuous record of near surface O3 in the Amazon rainforest was established. Black carbon (BC), CO and micrometeorological measurements are available for the same period. During intensive campaigns, NOx was measured as well using the same profile system, and therefore several month of parallel NOx measurements are available. This data allows the analyses of diverse patterns regarding emission, deposition, turbulence and chemical reactions of trace gases within and above the rainforest for several rainy and dry seasons. The remote Amazon generally serves as a sink for O3 which is mainly deposited to the canopy. The deposition depends to a large extent on the aperture of the leaf stomata, which is correlated to temperature, humidity, solar radiation and water availability. Comparing these parameters with the in-canopy and above canopy gradients of O3, considering the turbulent conditions and further chemical reactions of O3 with NOx and VOC molecules, we estimated the role of the forest for the removal of ozone from the atmosphere under different meteorological conditions. We applied the Multi-Layer Canopy Chemical Exchange Model - MLC-CHEM to support the analysis of the observed profiles of NOx and O3. Under pristine conditions, the forest soil is the major source for NO emissions, which are directly reacting with O3 molecules, affecting the O3 gradient within the sub-canopy. We have analyzed differences between model and measurements in sub-canopy NO and O3 mixing ratios by the application of different NO soil emission scenarios and by the performance of several sensitivity analyses to

  20. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on the Amazon Rainforest: 2080-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

    2006-12-01

    A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km is coupled with a potential vegetation model to simulate future climate over South America. The following steps are taken to effectively communicate the results across disciplines and to make them useful to the policy and impacts communities: the simulation is aimed at a particular time period (2081-2100), the climate change results are translated into changes in vegetation distribution, and the results are reported on regional space scales relative to political boundaries. In addition, the model validation in clearly presented to provide perspective on uncertainty for the prognosis. The model reproduces today's climate and vegetation over tropical and subtropical South America accurately. In simulations of the future, the model is forced by the IPCC's A2 scenario of future emissions, which assumes that CO2 emissions continue to grow at essentially today's rate throughout the 21st century, reaching 757 ppmv averaged over 2081-2100. The model is constrained on its lateral boundaries by atmospheric conditions simulated by a global climate model, applied as anomalies to present day conditions, and predicted changes in sea surface temperatures. The extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent in the simulation, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward well into the continental interior. Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina lose all of their rainforest vegetation, and Brazil and Peru lose most of it. The surviving rain forest is concentrated near the equator. Columbia's rainforest survives largely intact and, along the northern coast, Venezuela and French Guiana suffer relatively small reductions. The loss in Guyana and Surinam is 30-50 per cent. Much of the rainforest in the central Amazon north of about 15S is replaced by savanna vegetation, but in southern Bolivia, northern Paraguay, and southern Brazil, grasslands take the place of the

  1. Amazon's Profit Falls, but Beats Expectations,as Company Invests

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    @@ Fpr Amazon.com, down is the new up.The Internet retailer said Tuesday that its second-quarter profit dropped by 8 percent, which might seem like bad news.But the decline was not nearly as much as Amazon, or analysts, had expected, and the profit was being sacrificed for what the company said was a good cause, new investments in technology and warehouses.Revenue continued to be strong, rising 51 percent.

  2. Extinction debt and windows of conservation opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wearn, Oliver R; Reuman, Daniel C; Ewers, Robert M

    2012-07-13

    Predicting when future species extinctions will occur is necessary for directing conservation investments but has proved difficult. We developed a new method for predicting extinctions over time, accounting for the timing and magnitude of habitat loss. We applied this to the Brazilian Amazon, predicting that local extinctions of forest-dependent vertebrate species have thus far been minimal (1% of species by 2008), with more than 80% of extinctions expected to be incurred from historical habitat loss still to come. Realistic deforestation scenarios suggest that local regions will lose an average of nine vertebrate species and have a further 16 committed to extinction by 2050. There is a window of opportunity to dilute the legacy of historical deforestation by concentrating conservation efforts in areas with greatest debt.

  3. Cartography of affections in the Bragantine Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ênio José da Costa Brito

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This communication synthetically presents some elements of Jerônimo Silva e Silva’s ethnographic research. Actually it is the outlines of his doctoral thesis Cartography of affections in the encantaria: religious masters narratives from Bragantine Amazon. Silva lines out an ethnography via a cartographic flow having in mind to capture its live forces or movers. Using hermeneutics data from these narratives and living with some religious agents in situ – Pajé-Exorcista Cristino, Pajé Edvaldo, Mãe Terezinha, Mãe Lourdes, Rezadeira Luiza, Mãe Ana e Experiente Zé Maria – he unveils a plurality of relationships between people and incantation. Using some local technical concepts like corda (rope, linha (line, viração (breeze he discloses a rich social complexity in this religion of the incantation.

  4. The Herodotean »Amazonic« Artemisia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos N. Deligiorgis

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A large part of the oeuvre written by Herodotus of Halicarnassus consists of narratives presenting female protagonists. The historian’s interest and curiosity are fascinated and attracted by mysterious queens with masculine attitudes. Perhaps the best-known heroine of that uncommon ‘elite’ is Artemisia, queen of Halicarnassus and compatriot of Herodotus. Describing her presence and action during the great Persian War against Greece, the paper attempts to investigate her role by comparing her with the Amazons of myth and legend and their influence on the barbaric Scythian tribe of the Sauromatae. Herodotus interweaves reality and mythology in order to portray an unusual type, a miraculous female figure who commands our admiration.

  5. Hydrological Predictability for the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towner, Jamie; Stephens, Elizabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Bazo, Juan; Coughlan, Erin; Zsoter, Ervin

    2017-04-01

    Population growth in the Peruvian Amazon has prompted the expansion of livelihoods further into the floodplain and thus increasing vulnerability to the annual rise and fall of the river. This growth has coincided with a period of increasing hydrological extremes with more frequent severe flood events. The anticipation and forecasting of these events is crucial for mitigating vulnerability. Forecast-based Financing (FbF) an initiative of the German Red Cross implements risk reducing actions based on threshold exceedance within hydrometeorological forecasts using the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). However, the lead times required to complete certain actions can be long (e.g. several weeks to months ahead to purchase materials and reinforce houses) and are beyond the current capabilities of GloFAS. Therefore, further calibration of the model is required in addition to understanding the climatic drivers and associated hydrological response for specific flood events, such as those observed in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This review sets out to determine the current capabilities of the GloFAS model while exploring the limits of predictability for the Amazon basin. More specifically, how the temporal patterns of flow within the main coinciding tributaries correspond to the overall Amazonian flood wave under various climatic and meteorological influences. Linking the source areas of flow to predictability within the seasonal forecasting system will develop the ability to expand the limit of predictability of the flood wave. This presentation will focus on the Iquitos region of Peru, while providing an overview of the new techniques and current challenges faced within seasonal flood prediction.

  6. Role of vegetation change in future climate under the A1B scenario and a climate stabilisation scenario, using the HadCM3C earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. D. Falloon

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to use the coupled climate-carbon cycle model HadCM3C to quantify climate impact of ecosystem changes over recent decades and under future scenarios, due to changes in both atmospheric CO2 and surface albedo. We use two future scenarios – the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, and a climate stabilisation scenario (2C20, allowing us to assess the impact of climate mitigation on results. We performed a pair of simulations under each scenario – one in which vegetation was fixed at the initial state and one in which vegetation changes dynamically in response to climate change, as determined by the interactive vegetation model within HadCM3C.

    In our simulations with interactive vegetation, relatively small changes in global vegetation coverage were found, mainly dominated by increases in scrub and needleleaf trees at high latitudes and losses of broadleaf trees and grasses across the Amazon. Globally this led to a loss of terrestrial carbon, mainly from the soil. Global changes in carbon storage were related to the regional losses from the Amazon and gains at high latitude. Regional differences in carbon storage between the two scenarios were largely driven by the balance between warming-enhanced decomposition and altered vegetation growth. Globally, interactive vegetation reduced albedo acting to enhance albedo changes due to climate change. This was mainly related to the darker land surface over high latitudes (due to vegetation expansion, particularly during winter and spring; small increases in albedo occurred over the Amazon. As a result, there was a relatively small impact of vegetation change on most global annual mean climate variables, which was generally greater under A1B than 2C20, with markedly stronger local-to-regional and seasonal impacts. Globally, vegetation change amplified future annual temperature increases by 0.24 and 0.15 K (under A1B and 2C20, respectively and increased global precipitation

  7. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  8. Socio-ecological costs of Amazon nut and timber production at community household forests in the Bolivian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohren, Frits; Ascarrunz, Nataly; Dressler, Wolfram; Peña-Claros, Marielos

    2017-01-01

    The Bolivian Amazon holds a complex configuration of people and forested landscapes in which communities hold secure tenure rights over a rich ecosystem offering a range of livelihood income opportunities. A large share of this income is derived from Amazon nut (Bertholletia excelsa). Many communities also have long-standing experience with community timber management plans. However, livelihood needs and desires for better living conditions may continue to place these resources under considerable stress as income needs and opportunities intensify and diversify. We aim to identify the socioeconomic and biophysical factors determining the income from forests, husbandry, off-farm and two keystone forest products (i.e., Amazon nut and timber) in the Bolivian Amazon region. We used structural equation modelling tools to account for the complex inter-relationships between socioeconomic and biophysical factors in predicting each source of income. The potential exists to increase incomes from existing livelihood activities in ways that reduce dependency upon forest resources. For example, changes in off-farm income sources can act to increase or decrease forest incomes. Market accessibility, social, financial, and natural and physical assets determined the amount of income community households could derive from Amazon nut and timber. Factors related to community households’ local ecological knowledge, such as the number of non-timber forest products harvested and the number of management practices applied to enhance Amazon nut production, defined the amount of income these households could derive from Amazon nut and timber, respectively. The (inter) relationships found among socioeconomic and biophysical factors over income shed light on ways to improve forest-dependent livelihoods in the Bolivian Amazon. We believe that our analysis could be applicable to other contexts throughout the tropics as well. PMID:28235090

  9. Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from central Amazon, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    P.S. Santos; ALBUQUERQUE, G. R.; da Silva, V. M. F.; Martin, A R; Marvulo,M.F.V.; S.L.P. Souza; Ragozo, A. M. A. [UNESP; Nascimento, C. C.; Gennari,S.M.; Dubey, J. P.; Silva, J. C. R.

    2011-01-01

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important pathogen in aquatic mammals and its presence in these animals may indicate the water contamination of aquatic environment by oocysts. Serum samples from 95 free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from the Mamiraua Sustainable Development Reserve (RDSM), Tefe, Amazonas, Central Amazon, Brazil were tested for T. gondii antibodies using the modified agglutination test (MAT). Antibodies (MAT >= 25) to T. gondii were found in 82 (86.3%) dolphins with ...

  10. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  11. Modelling the potential of focal screening and treatment as elimination strategy for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Peruvian Amazon Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas-Aguirre, Angel; Erhart, Annette; Llanos-Cuentas, Alejandro; Branch, Oralee; Berkvens, Dirk; Abatih, Emmanuel; Lambert, Philippe; Frasso, Gianluca; Rodriguez, Hugo; Gamboa, Dionicia; Sihuincha, Moisés; Rosanas-Urgell, Anna; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Speybroeck, Niko

    2015-05-07

    Focal screening and treatment (FSAT) of malaria infections has recently been introduced in Peru to overcome the inherent limitations of passive case detection (PCD) and further decrease the malaria burden. Here, we used a relatively straightforward mathematical model to assess the potential of FSAT as elimination strategy for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Peruvian Amazon Region. A baseline model was developed to simulate a scenario with seasonal malaria transmission and the effect of PCD and treatment of symptomatic infections on the P. falciparum malaria transmission in a low endemic area of the Peruvian Amazon. The model was then adjusted to simulate intervention scenarios for predicting the long term additional impact of FSAT on P. falciparum malaria prevalence and incidence. Model parameterization was done using data from a cohort study in a rural Amazonian community as well as published transmission parameters from previous studies in similar areas. The effect of FSAT timing and frequency, using either microscopy or a supposed field PCR, was assessed on both predicted incidence and prevalence rates. The intervention model indicated that the addition of FSAT to PCD significantly reduced the predicted P. falciparum incidence and prevalence. The strongest reduction was observed when three consecutive FSAT were implemented at the beginning of the low transmission season, and if malaria diagnosis was done with PCR. Repeated interventions for consecutive years (10 years with microscopy or 5 years with PCR), would allow reaching near to zero incidence and prevalence rates. The addition of FSAT interventions to PCD may enable to reach P. falciparum elimination levels in low endemic areas of the Amazon Region, yet the progression rates to those levels may vary substantially according to the operational criteria used for the intervention.

  12. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  13. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  14. 77 FR 14852 - Advanced Growing Systems, Inc., Advantage Capital Development Corp., Amazon Biotech, Inc...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-13

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Advanced Growing Systems, Inc., Advantage Capital Development Corp., Amazon Biotech, Inc., Andover... of current and accurate information concerning the securities of Amazon ] Biotech, Inc. because...

  15. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  16. Programming Amazon Web Services S3, EC2, SQS, FPS, and SimpleDB

    CERN Document Server

    Murty, James

    2009-01-01

    With this book, you'll learn how companies can take advantage of Amazon Web Services (AWS) to rent" computing power, data storage and bandwidth on Amazon's vast network infrastructure. Programming Amazon Web Services gives developers the background and technical detail they need for using Amazon's subscription-based Simple Storage Service (S3), Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2), Simple Queue Service (SQS), Flexible Payments Service (FPS), and SimpleDB to build web-scale business applications. "

  17. Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Genovese, V.

    2009-01-01

    A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from

  18. Carbon emissions from deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Genovese

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000–2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; g C m−2 for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006 were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazônia project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C yr−1 (1 Pg=1015 g and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C yr−1 from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C yr−1 in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may

  19. Methane emissions from floodplain trees of the Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangala, Sunitha; Bastviken, David; Enrich-Prast, Alex; Gauci, Vincent

    2016-04-01

    Wetlands are the largest source of methane to the atmosphere, but emission estimates are highly uncertain leading to large discrepancies between emission inventories and much larger estimates of the Amazon methane source derived at larger scales. We examined methane emissions from all emission pathways including aquatic surfaces, emergent soils and herbaceous vegetation and more than 2000 trees from 13 locations across the central Amazon floodplain in 2014. Our data are the first measurements of stem emission from emergent portions of inundated trees in the Amazon and they demonstrate that regionally, tree stems are the dominant means of emissions for soil produced methane to the atmosphere. Emissions via the range of egress pathways varied substantially between sample locations and water-table exerted some control over emissions from ~2m below the soil surface upto 0.5-1m of inundation. Higher water (upto ~10m of inundation) exerted no further control over emissions. Applying our measurements to models of whole tree emission and scaling to the entire Amazon lowland basin demonstrates the significant contribution of trees to regional emissions that can close the Amazon basin methane budget.

  20. Spatiotemporal variability of methane over the Amazon from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Igor Oliveira; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Costa, Patrícia dos Santos

    2016-07-01

    The spatiotemporal variability of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) in the atmosphere over the Amazon is studied using data from the space-borne measurements of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board NASA's AQUA satellite for the period 2003-12. The results show a pronounced variability of this gas over the Amazon Basin lowlands region, where wetland areas occur. CH4 has a well-defined seasonal behavior, with a progressive increase of its concentration during the dry season, followed by a decrease during the wet season. Concerning this variability, the present study indicates the important role of ENSO in modulating the variability of CH4 emissions over the northern Amazon, where this association seems to be mostly linked to changes in flooded areas in response to ENSO-related precipitation changes. In this region, a CH4 decrease (increase) is due to the El Niño-related (La Niña-related) dryness (wetness). On the other hand, an increase (decrease) in the biomass burning over the southeastern Amazon during very dry (wet) years explains the increase (decrease) in CH4 emissions in this region. The present analysis identifies the two main areas of the Amazon, its northern and southeastern sectors, with remarkable interannual variations of CH4. This result might be useful for future monitoring of the variations in the concentration of CH4, the second-most important greenhouse gas, in this area.

  1. Physicochemical parameters of Amazon Melipona honey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia Bicudo de Almeida-Muradian

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Stingless bees produce a honey that is different from the Apis honey in terms of composition. There aren't enough data to establish quality control parameters for this product, mainly due to lack of research results. The aim of this work is to evaluate some physicochemical parameters that can be used for the characterization and for the quality control of the Meliponinae honey. Four different samples were collected in the Amazon region of Brazil in 2004 (Melipona compressipes manaoense bee and Melipona seminigra merribae bee. Honey analyses were performed as described by the official methods. The mean results were: moisture (30.13%, pH (3.65, acidity (24.57 mEq/kg, water activity (0.75, fructose (31.91%, glucose (29.30% and sucrose (0.19%. These results reinforce the need for a specific regulation for stingless bee honey. This will only be feasible when enough data is available to establish upper and lower limits for the physicochemical parameters used for quality control.

  2. Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Hilker, Thomas; Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Sanchez, Alber; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Wang, Yujie; Aragão, Luiz E O C

    2017-01-01

    Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.

  3. Rickettsial Disease in the Peruvian Amazon Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, Claudine; Morrison, Amy C; Leguia, Mariana; Loyola, Steev; Castillo, Roger M; Galvez, Hugo A; Astete, Helvio; Flores-Mendoza, Carmen; Ampuero, Julia S; Bausch, Daniel G; Halsey, Eric S; Cespedes, Manuel; Zevallos, Karine; Jiang, Ju; Richards, Allen L

    2016-07-01

    Using a large, passive, clinic-based surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we characterized the prevalence of rickettsial infections among undifferentiated febrile cases and obtained evidence of pathogen transmission in potential domestic reservoir contacts and their ectoparasites. Blood specimens from humans and animals were assayed for spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) and typhus group rickettsiae (TGR) by ELISA and/or PCR; ectoparasites were screened by PCR. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between patient history, demographic characteristics of participants and symptoms, clinical findings and outcome of rickettsial infection. Of the 2,054 enrolled participants, almost 2% showed evidence of seroconversion or a 4-fold rise in antibody titers specific for rickettsiae between acute and convalescent blood samples. Of 190 fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) and 60 ticks (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) tested, 185 (97.4%) and 3 (5%), respectively, were positive for Rickettsia spp. Candidatus Rickettsia asemboensis was identified in 100% and 33% of the fleas and ticks tested, respectively. Collectively, our serologic data indicates that human pathogenic SFGR are present in the Peruvian Amazon and pose a significant risk of infection to individuals exposed to wild, domestic and peri-domestic animals and their ectoparasites.

  4. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...... into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon....

  5. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  6. Boundary layer ozone - An airborne survey above the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Gerald L.; Browell, Edward V.; Warren, Linda S.

    1988-01-01

    Ozone data obtained over the forest canopy of the Amazon Basin during July and August 1985 in the course of NASA's Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A are discussed, and ozone profiles obtained during flights from Belem to Tabatinga, Brazil, are analyzed to determine any cross-basin effects. The analyses of ozone data indicate that the mixed layer of the Amazon Basin, for the conditions of undisturbed meteorology and in the absence of biomass burning, is a significant sink for tropospheric ozone. As the coast is approached, marine influences are noted at about 300 km inland, and a transition from a forest-controlled mixed layer to a marine-controlled mixed layer is noted.

  7. Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakschewski, Boris; von Bloh, Werner; Boit, Alice; Poorter, Lourens; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Heinke, Jens; Joshi, Jasmin; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2016-11-01

    Climate change threatens ecosystems worldwide, yet their potential future resilience remains largely unquantified. In recent years many studies have shown that biodiversity, and in particular functional diversity, can enhance ecosystem resilience by providing a higher response diversity. So far these insights have been mostly neglected in large-scale projections of ecosystem responses to climate change. Here we show that plant trait diversity, as a key component of functional diversity, can have a strikingly positive effect on the Amazon forests' biomass under future climate change. Using a terrestrial biogeochemical model that simulates diverse forest communities on the basis of individual tree growth, we show that plant trait diversity may enable the Amazon forests to adjust to new climate conditions via a process of ecological sorting, protecting the Amazon's carbon sink function. Therefore, plant trait diversity, and biodiversity in general, should be considered in large-scale ecosystem projections and be included as an integral part of climate change research and policy.

  8. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  9. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  10. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  11. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  12. Assessing the Amazon Cloud Suitability for CLARREO's Computational Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldin, Daniel; Vakhnin, Andrei A.; Currey, Jon C.

    2015-01-01

    In this document we compare the performance of the Amazon Web Services (AWS), also known as Amazon Cloud, with the CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) cluster and assess its suitability for computational needs of the CLARREO mission. A benchmark executable to process one month and one year of PARASOL (Polarization and Anistropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) data was used. With the optimal AWS configuration, adequate data-processing times, comparable to the CLARREO cluster, were found. The assessment of alternatives to the CLARREO cluster continues and several options, such as a NASA-based cluster, are being considered.

  13. Osteoma in a blue-fronted Amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, João Felipe Rito; Levy, Marcelo Guilherme Bezerra; Liparisi, Flavia; Romão, Mario Antonio Pinto

    2013-09-01

    Osteoma is an uncommon bone formation documented in avian species and other animals. A blue-fronted Amazon parrot (Amazona aestiva) with clinical respiratory symptoms was examined because of a hard mass present on the left nostril. Radiographs suggested a bone tumor, and the mass was surgically excised. Histopathologic examination revealed features of an osteoma. To our knowledge, this is the first description of an osteoma in a blue-fronted Amazon parrot. Osteoma should be considered as a differential diagnosis in birds with respiratory distress and swelling of the nostril.

  14. Beginning Amazon Web Services with Node.js

    CERN Document Server

    Shackelford, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Beginning Amazon Web Services with Node.js teaches any novice Node.js developer to configure, deploy, and maintain scalable small to large scale Node.js applications in Amazon Web Services. Hosting a Node.js application in a production environment usually means turning to PaaS hosting, but this approach brings problems. Deploying Node.js directly to AWS solves the problems you encounter in these situations, enabling you to cut out the middle man. You will begin with a basic RESTful web service in Node.js, using the popular Express.js framework, pre-built and ready to run in your local env

  15. Amazon Forests’ Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Bi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth’s climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests’ response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS vegetation index (VI data to assess Amazon forests’ response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6 MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1 the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; (2 the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3 in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

  16. Amazon Forests Response to Droughts: A Perspective from the MAIAC Product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Jian; Myneni, Ranga; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Park, Taejin; Chi, Chen; Yan, Kai; Knyazikhin, Yuri

    2016-01-01

    Amazon forests experienced two severe droughts at the beginning of the 21st century: one in 2005 and the other in 2010. How Amazon forests responded to these droughts is critical for the future of the Earth's climate system. It is only possible to assess Amazon forests' response to the droughts in large areal extent through satellite remote sensing. Here, we used the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI) data to assess Amazon forests' response to droughts, and compared the results with those from the standard (Collection 5 and Collection 6) MODIS VI data. Overall, the MAIAC data reveal more realistic Amazon forests inter-annual greenness dynamics than the standard MODIS data. Our results from the MAIAC data suggest that: (1) the droughts decreased the greenness (i.e., photosynthetic activity) of Amazon forests; (2) the Amazon wet season precipitation reduction induced by El Niño events could also lead to reduced photosynthetic activity of Amazon forests; and (3) in the subsequent year after the water stresses, the greenness of Amazon forests recovered from the preceding decreases. However, as previous research shows droughts cause Amazon forests to reduce investment in tissue maintenance and defense, it is not clear whether the photosynthesis of Amazon forests will continue to recover after future water stresses, because of the accumulated damages caused by the droughts.

  17. Identification of Plasmodium spp. in Neotropical primates of Maranhense Amazon in Northeast Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Mayra Araguaia Pereira; Di Santi, Silvia Maria; Manrique, Wilson Gómez; André, Marcos Rogério; Machado, Rosangela Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    In the Brazilian Amazon region, malaria caused by Plasmodium malariae is considered to be a zoonosis because of cross-transfer of the parasite between humans and Neotropical primates. To contribute information on this issue, we investigated occurrences of natural infection with Plasmodium sp. among Neotropical primates in the Maranhense Amazon (Amazon region of the state of Maranhão), in the northeastern region of Brazil. Blood samples were collected from 161 Neotropical primates of six species that were caught in an environmental reserve (Sítio Aguahy) and from captive primates (CETAS-Wildlife Screening Center, municipality of São Luís), in Maranhão. Plasmodium sp. was diagnosed based on light microscopy, PCR, qPCR and LAMP for amplification of the 18S rRNA gene. Serum samples were also assayed by means of indirect immunofluorescence for IgG antibodies against P. malariae/P. brasilianum, P. falciparum and P. berghei. Parasites were detected through light microscopy on five slides from captive primates (four Sapajus spp. and one Callithrix jacchus). In the molecular tests, 34.16% (55/161) and 29.81% (48/161) of the animals sampled were positive in the qPCR and PCR assays, respectively. In the PCR, 47/48 animals were positive for P. malariae/P. brasilianum; of these, eight were free-living primates and 39 from CETAS, São Luís. One sample showed a band in the genus-specific reaction, but not in the second PCR reaction. Anti-P. malariae/P. brasilianum IgG antibodies were detected in four serum samples from Sapajus spp. in captivity. In this study, circulation of P. malariae/P. brasilianum in Neotropical primates was confirmed, with low levels of parasitemia and low levels of antibodies. The importance of these animals as reservoirs of human malaria in the region studied is still unknown. This scenario has an impact on control and elimination of malaria in this region.

  18. An Analysis of Cloud Computing with Amazon Web Services for the Atmospheric Science Data Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, J. L.; Little, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    NASA science and engineering efforts rely heavily on compute and data handling systems. The nature of NASA science data is such that it is not restricted to NASA users, instead it is widely shared across a globally distributed user community including scientists, educators, policy decision makers, and the public. Therefore NASA science computing is a candidate use case for cloud computing where compute resources are outsourced to an external vendor. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a commercial cloud computing service developed to use excess computing capacity at Amazon, and potentially provides an alternative to costly and potentially underutilized dedicated acquisitions whenever NASA scientists or engineers require additional data processing. AWS desires to provide a simplified avenue for NASA scientists and researchers to share large, complex data sets with external partners and the public. AWS has been extensively used by JPL for a wide range of computing needs and was previously tested on a NASA Agency basis during the Nebula testing program. Its ability to support the Langley Science Directorate needs to be evaluated by integrating it with real world operational needs across NASA and the associated maturity that would come with that. The strengths and weaknesses of this architecture and its ability to support general science and engineering applications has been demonstrated during the previous testing. The Langley Office of the Chief Information Officer in partnership with the Atmospheric Sciences Data Center (ASDC) has established a pilot business interface to utilize AWS cloud computing resources on a organization and project level pay per use model. This poster discusses an effort to evaluate the feasibility of the pilot business interface from a project level perspective by specifically using a processing scenario involving the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project.

  19. The potential impact of new Andean dams on Amazon fluvial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Bruce R; Melack, John M; Dunne, Thomas; Barthem, Ronaldo B; Goulding, Michael; Paiva, Rodrigo C D; Sorribas, Mino V; Silva, Urbano L; Weisser, Sabine

    2017-01-01

    Increased energy demand has led to plans for building many new dams in the western Amazon, mostly in the Andean region. Historical data and mechanistic scenarios are used to examine potential impacts above and below six of the largest dams planned for the region, including reductions in downstream sediment and nutrient supplies, changes in downstream flood pulse, changes in upstream and downstream fish yields, reservoir siltation, greenhouse gas emissions and mercury contamination. Together, these six dams are predicted to reduce the supply of sediments, phosphorus and nitrogen from the Andean region by 69, 67 and 57% and to the entire Amazon basin by 64, 51 and 23%, respectively. These large reductions in sediment and nutrient supplies will have major impacts on channel geomorphology, floodplain fertility and aquatic productivity. These effects will be greatest near the dams and extend to the lowland floodplains. Attenuation of the downstream flood pulse is expected to alter the survival, phenology and growth of floodplain vegetation and reduce fish yields below the dams. Reservoir filling times due to siltation are predicted to vary from 106-6240 years, affecting the storage performance of some dams. Total CO2 equivalent carbon emission from 4 Andean dams was expected to average 10 Tg y-1 during the first 30 years of operation, resulting in a MegaWatt weighted Carbon Emission Factor of 0.139 tons C MWhr-1. Mercury contamination in fish and local human populations is expected to increase both above and below the dams creating significant health risks. Reservoir fish yields will compensate some downstream losses, but increased mercury contamination could offset these benefits.

  20. Viruses and bacteria in floodplain lakes along a major Amazon tributary respond to distance to the Amazon River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Marques Almeida

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Because of the massive water volume of the Amazon River, the Amazon tributaries have their water backed up by hundreds of kilometers upstream their mouth. This backwater effect is part of the complex hydrodynamics of Amazonian surface waters, which in turn drives the variation in concentrations of organic matter and nutrients, and also regulates planktonic communities such as viruses and bacteria. Viruses and bacteria are commonly tightly coupled, and their ecological role in aquatic food webs has been increasingly recognized. Here, we surveyed viral and bacterial abundances in 26 floodplain lakes along the Trombetas River, the largest clear-water tributary of the Amazon River’s north margin. We correlated viral and bacterial abundances with temperature, pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon (DOC, phosphorus, nitrogen, turbidity, water transparency, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2, phytoplankton abundance and distance from the lake mouth until the confluence of the Trombetas with the Amazon River. We hypothesized that both bacterial and viral abundances would change along a latitudinal gradient, as the backwater effect becomes more intense with increased proximity to the Amazon River; different flood duration and intensity among lakes and waters with contrasting sources would cause spatial variation. Our measurements were performed during the low water period, when floodplain lakes are in their most lake-like conditions. Viral and bacterial abundances, DOC, pCO2 and water transparency increased as distance to the Amazon River increased. Most viruses were bacteriophages, as viruses were strongly linked to bacteria, but not to phytoplankton. We suggest that bacterial abundances increase in response to DOC quantity and possibly quality, consequently leading to increased viral abundances. Our results highlight that hydrodynamics plays a key role in the regulation of planktonic viral and bacterial communities in

  1. Jotï ecogony, Venezuelan Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zent, Egleé L.

    2013-03-01

    The current environmental crisis permeates the discourse and concerns of people all over the world. Consideration of diverse environmental ethics showing the alternative ways in which people conceptualize and relate to nature and natural resources are critical for bringing about more sustainable human behaviors. After a brief review of Western historical notions of nature, this work explores the ecogony, or causal reasons, that trigger the behavior of the Jotï, an Amerindian people of the Venezuelan Amazon, with other entities and the forest that they inhabit. The analysis presented synthesizes 15 years of transdisciplinary ethno-ecological research comprising quantitative and qualitative methods (collection of herbarium voucher specimens, floristic inventories in forest plots, structured interviews focused on plot vegetation, semi-structured interviews of life-histories, participant observation, time allocation studies, food resource accounting, focal person following observations, garden crop inventories and censuses, mapping of wild resource harvest locations, among others). Jotï pragmatic and ideological tenets generate a distinctive environmental ethics based on ecogonic nodes. Notions of interdependence, humanity and person are articulated on a daily basis through several dynamics: (1) hyper-awareness of all living things’ dependence on each other and other elements of the biophysical environment at macroscales and microscales, (2) the construction of human spiritual, conscious, physical and agentive constituents from a variety of diverse botanical and zoological species and mineral components of their homeland, and (3) an understanding of the aggregate surroundings, including a significant portion of the biotic and abiotic components, as potential subjects with awareness, creativity and moral stances. This condition of interdependence confers rights and duties on all the parts. Jotï horizontal communications with and among life-forms sustain their

  2. Biomedical cloud computing with Amazon Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusaro, Vincent A; Patil, Prasad; Gafni, Erik; Wall, Dennis P; Tonellato, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    In this overview to biomedical computing in the cloud, we discussed two primary ways to use the cloud (a single instance or cluster), provided a detailed example using NGS mapping, and highlighted the associated costs. While many users new to the cloud may assume that entry is as straightforward as uploading an application and selecting an instance type and storage options, we illustrated that there is substantial up-front effort required before an application can make full use of the cloud's vast resources. Our intention was to provide a set of best practices and to illustrate how those apply to a typical application pipeline for biomedical informatics, but also general enough for extrapolation to other types of computational problems. Our mapping example was intended to illustrate how to develop a scalable project and not to compare and contrast alignment algorithms for read mapping and genome assembly. Indeed, with a newer aligner such as Bowtie, it is possible to map the entire African genome using one m2.2xlarge instance in 48 hours for a total cost of approximately $48 in computation time. In our example, we were not concerned with data transfer rates, which are heavily influenced by the amount of available bandwidth, connection latency, and network availability. When transferring large amounts of data to the cloud, bandwidth limitations can be a major bottleneck, and in some cases it is more efficient to simply mail a storage device containing the data to AWS (http://aws.amazon.com/importexport/). More information about cloud computing, detailed cost analysis, and security can be found in references.

  3. Biomedical cloud computing with Amazon Web Services.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent A Fusaro

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this overview to biomedical computing in the cloud, we discussed two primary ways to use the cloud (a single instance or cluster, provided a detailed example using NGS mapping, and highlighted the associated costs. While many users new to the cloud may assume that entry is as straightforward as uploading an application and selecting an instance type and storage options, we illustrated that there is substantial up-front effort required before an application can make full use of the cloud's vast resources. Our intention was to provide a set of best practices and to illustrate how those apply to a typical application pipeline for biomedical informatics, but also general enough for extrapolation to other types of computational problems. Our mapping example was intended to illustrate how to develop a scalable project and not to compare and contrast alignment algorithms for read mapping and genome assembly. Indeed, with a newer aligner such as Bowtie, it is possible to map the entire African genome using one m2.2xlarge instance in 48 hours for a total cost of approximately $48 in computation time. In our example, we were not concerned with data transfer rates, which are heavily influenced by the amount of available bandwidth, connection latency, and network availability. When transferring large amounts of data to the cloud, bandwidth limitations can be a major bottleneck, and in some cases it is more efficient to simply mail a storage device containing the data to AWS (http://aws.amazon.com/importexport/. More information about cloud computing, detailed cost analysis, and security can be found in references.

  4. Social, biological, and environmental drivers of the hunting and trade of the endangered yellow-footed tortoise in the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís Q. Morcatty

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Chelonians constitute an important source of food and income for the inhabitants of tropical forests. We assessed the social, biological, and environmental factors affecting the hunting and trade of the endangered yellow-footed tortoise (Chelonoidis denticulata in rural and urban areas in the Amazon and estimated the sustainability of tortoise use. We also discuss possible conservation alternatives that are compatible with the needs of local inhabitants. We monitored tortoise hunting and trade for 12 years in 10 traditional communities that exploit different habitat types in the Brazilian Amazon and collected data on the tortoise trade in two urban markets for six years. In upland forests, tortoise hunting mainly occurred during the dry season; in whitewater flooded forests, hunting mainly occurred during the flood season. The tortoise trade was carried out nearly entirely by whitewater flooded forest users and was intimately related to fishing, the main economic activity in these communities. Furthermore, the tortoise trade was encouraged in whitewater flooded forests because this environment yielded significantly heavier tortoises than upland forests, and we observed a strong relationship between trade probability and tortoise size. The tortoise trade was found to primarily supply nearby urban centers, generating high monetary gain. Female tortoises suffered greater hunting pressure and were more valued in the bushmeat market. The productivity of tortoise hunting in the monitored communities severely decreased with time. In addition, the price per kilogram of tortoise greatly increased in the urban market. Given this unsustainable scenario, policies regulating tortoise hunting in the Amazon are needed. These policies must be adapted to the different patterns of tortoise use by rural communities while maintaining the culture and food sovereignty of the local inhabitants.

  5. Commons management and ecotourism: Ethnographic evidence from the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stronza, Amanda Lee

    2010-01-01

    TThe paper evaluates the relationship between ecotourism and commons management. Social and economic impacts of ecotourism in an indigenous village in the Peruvian Amazon are considered in relation to opportunities for collective action to manage common pool resources, including wildlife, forests, a

  6. People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peña Venegas, C.P.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Clara Patricia Peña Venegas (2015). People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, with summaries in English and Dutch, 210 pp. The presence of anthropogenic soils, or Amazonian Dark

  7. People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peña Venegas, C.P.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Clara Patricia Peña Venegas (2015). People, soil and manioc interactions in the upper Amazon region. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, with summaries in English and Dutch, 210 pp. The presence of anthropogenic soils, or Amazonian Dark   Ea

  8. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Classroom Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijman, Jan; Hill, A. David

    1991-01-01

    Presents a classroom project dealing with tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Addresses environmental consequences and economic, social, and political causes. Involves both lectures and individual research and reports by student groups on deforestation causes. Includes a note-playing activity in which students make recommendations for…

  9. Spatial pattern of standing timber value across the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2012-01-01

    The Amazon is a globally important system, providing a host of ecosystem services from climate regulation to food sources. It is also home to a quarter of all global diversity. Large swathes of forest are removed each year, and many models have attempted to predict the spatial patterns of this forest loss. The spatial patterns of deforestation are determined largely by the patterns of roads that open access to frontier areas and expansion of the road network in the Amazon is largely determined by profit seeking logging activities. Here we present predictions for the spatial distribution of standing value of timber across the Amazon. We show that the patterns of timber value reflect large-scale ecological gradients, determining the spatial distribution of functional traits of trees which are, in turn, correlated with timber values. We expect that understanding the spatial patterns of timber value across the Amazon will aid predictions of logging movements and thus predictions of potential future road developments. These predictions in turn will be of great use in estimating the spatial patterns of deforestation in this globally important biome.

  10. Condition and fate of logged forests in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asner, Gregory P; Broadbent, Eben N; Oliveira, Paulo J C; Keller, Michael; Knapp, David E; Silva, José N M

    2006-08-22

    The long-term viability of a forest industry in the Amazon region of Brazil depends on the maintenance of adequate timber volume and growth in healthy forests. Using extensive high-resolution satellite analyses, we studied the forest damage caused by recent logging operations and the likelihood that logged forests would be cleared within 4 years after timber harvest. Across 2,030,637 km2 of the Brazilian Amazon from 1999 to 2004, at least 76% of all harvest practices resulted in high levels of canopy damage sufficient to leave forests susceptible to drought and fire. We found that 16+/-1% of selectively logged areas were deforested within 1 year of logging, with a subsequent annual deforestation rate of 5.4% for 4 years after timber harvests. Nearly all logging occurred within 25 km of main roads, and within that area, the probability of deforestation for a logged forest was up to four times greater than for unlogged forests. In combination, our results show that logging in the Brazilian Amazon is dominated by highly damaging operations, often followed rapidly by deforestation decades before forests can recover sufficiently to produce timber for a second harvest. Under the management regimes in effect at the time of our study in the Brazilian Amazon, selective logging would not be sustained.

  11. Mayaro Virus Infection, Amazon Basin Region, Peru, 2010–2013

    OpenAIRE

    Halsey, Eric S; Siles, Crystyan; Guevara, Carolina; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Erik J. Jhonston; Ramal, Cesar; Aguilar, Patricia V.; Ampuero, Julia S.

    2013-01-01

    During 2010–2013, we recruited 16 persons with confirmed Mayaro virus infection in the Peruvian Amazon to prospectively follow clinical symptoms and serologic response over a 12-month period. Mayaro virus infection caused long-term arthralgia in more than half, similar to reports of other arthritogenic alphaviruses.

  12. Mayaro virus infection, Amazon Basin region, Peru, 2010-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halsey, Eric S; Siles, Crystyan; Guevara, Carolina; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Jhonston, Erik J; Ramal, Cesar; Aguilar, Patricia V; Ampuero, Julia S

    2013-11-01

    During 2010-2013, we recruited 16 persons with confirmed Mayaro virus infection in the Peruvian Amazon to prospectively follow clinical symptoms and serologic response over a 12-month period. Mayaro virus infection caused long-term arthralgia in more than half, similar to reports of other arthritogenic alphaviruses.

  13. Serologic Evidence of Scrub Typhus in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ju; Morrison, Amy C.; Castillo, Roger; Leguia, Mariana; Loyola, Steev; Ampuero, Julia S.; Cespedes, Manuel; Halsey, Eric S.; Bausch, Daniel G.; Richards, Allen L.

    2017-01-01

    Using a large, passive, febrile surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we retrospectively tested human blood specimens for scrub typhus group orientiae by ELISA, immunofluorescence assay, and PCR. Of 1,124 participants, 60 (5.3%) were seropositive, and 1 showed evidence of recent active infection. Our serologic data indicate that scrub typhus is present in the Peruvian Amazon. PMID:28726619

  14. Learning big data with Amazon Elastic MapReduce

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Amarkant

    2014-01-01

    This book is aimed at developers and system administrators who want to learn about Big Data analysis using Amazon Elastic MapReduce. Basic Java programming knowledge is required. You should be comfortable with using command-line tools. Prior knowledge of AWS, API, and CLI tools is not assumed. Also, no exposure to Hadoop and MapReduce is expected.

  15. The Amazon region: tropical deforestation, biogeochemical cycles and the climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabat, P.; Andreae, M.O.; Silva-Dias, M.A.; Veraart, J.A.; Brink, N.J.

    2003-01-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, aerosols, and trace gases in the Amazon Basin, and the interactions between deforestation, rainfall and climate were all investigated in this programme as a part of an integrated cluster of inter-linked and complementary research projects. These i

  16. Reshaping institutions : bricolage processes in smallholder forestry in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, de J.

    2011-01-01

    This thesis aims at identifying the different kinds of institutional influences on forest practices of small farmers in the Amazon region of Ecuador and Bolivia and how small farmers respond to them. It departs from the perspective that institutions affecting forest practices are subject to processe

  17. Placentation in dolphins from the Amazon River Basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    da Silva, Vera M F; Carter, Anthony M; Ambrosio, Carlos E

    2007-01-01

    A recent reassessment of the phylogenetic affinities of cetaceans makes it timely to compare their placentation with that of the artiodactyls. We studied the placentae of two sympatric species of dolphin from the Amazon River Basin, representing two distinct families. The umbilical cord branched...

  18. Staphylococcus aureus causing tropical pyomyositis, Amazon Basin, Peru.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia, C.; Hallin, M.; Deplano, A.; Denis, O.; Sihuincha, M.; Groot, R. de; Gotuzzo, E.; Jacobs, J.

    2013-01-01

    We studied 12 Staphylococcus aureus isolates causing tropical pyomyositis in the Amazon Basin of Peru. All isolates were methicillin-susceptible; 11 carried Panton-Valentine leukocidin-encoding genes, and 5 belonged to multilocus sequence type 25 and possessed an extensive set of enterotoxins. Our f

  19. Backwater effects in the Amazon River basin of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meade, R.H.; Rayol, J.M.; Da Conceicao, S.C.; Natividade, J.R.G.

    1991-01-01

    The Amazon River mainstem of Brazil is so regulated by differences in the timing of tributary inputs and by seasonal storage of water on floodplains that maximum discharges exceed minimum discharges by a factor of only 3. Large tributaries that drain the southern Amazon River basin reach their peak discharges two months earlier than does the mainstem. The resulting backwater in the lowermost 800 km of two large southern tributaries, the Madeira and Puru??s rivers, causes falling river stages to be as much as 2-3 m higher than rising stages at any given discharge. Large tributaries that drain the northernmost Amazon River basin reach their annual minimum discharges three to four months later than does the mainstem. In the lowermost 300-400 km of the Negro River, the largest northern tributary and the fifth largest river in the world, the lowest stages of the year correspond to those of the Amazon River mainstem rather than to those in the upstream reaches of the Negro River. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  20. Aerosol retrieval from OMI: Applications to the amazon bassin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curier, R.L.; Veefkind, J.P.; Veilhmann, B.; Braak, R.; Torres, O.; Leeuw, G.de

    2007-01-01

    We present the aerosol optical depth retrieved from OMI measurements using the multi-wavelengthm algorithm for two different environments: over Western Europe where the aerosols are weakly absorbing and over the Amazon basin where aerosol optical properties are governed by biomass burning. The resul

  1. Kindling: The Amazon e-Reader as an Educational Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezicki, Colin

    2011-01-01

    The revolutionary electronic reading device, Amazon's Kindle, is already obsolete. Such is the breakneck speed of technology that the machine touted to spell the death of printed books is already heading for the scrap heap, replaced by e-readers like the iPad that access the Internet, make phone calls, download movies, and connect users with all…

  2. Aerosol retrieval from OMI: Applications to the amazon bassin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Curier, R.L.; Veefkind, J.P.; Veilhmann, B.; Braak, R.; Torres, O.; Leeuw, G.de

    2007-01-01

    We present the aerosol optical depth retrieved from OMI measurements using the multi-wavelengthm algorithm for two different environments: over Western Europe where the aerosols are weakly absorbing and over the Amazon basin where aerosol optical properties are governed by biomass burning. The resul

  3. Serologic Evidence of Scrub Typhus in the Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocher, Claudine; Jiang, Ju; Morrison, Amy C; Castillo, Roger; Leguia, Mariana; Loyola, Steev; Ampuero, Julia S; Cespedes, Manuel; Halsey, Eric S; Bausch, Daniel G; Richards, Allen L

    2017-08-01

    Using a large, passive, febrile surveillance program in Iquitos, Peru, we retrospectively tested human blood specimens for scrub typhus group orientiae by ELISA, immunofluorescence assay, and PCR. Of 1,124 participants, 60 (5.3%) were seropositive, and 1 showed evidence of recent active infection. Our serologic data indicate that scrub typhus is present in the Peruvian Amazon.

  4. Andes hantavirus variant in rodents, southern Amazon Basin, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razuri, Hugo; Tokarz, Rafal; Ghersi, Bruno M; Salmon-Mulanovich, Gabriela; Guezala, M Claudia; Albujar, Christian; Mendoza, A Patricia; Tinoco, Yeny O; Cruz, Christopher; Silva, Maria; Vasquez, Alicia; Pacheco, Víctor; Ströher, Ute; Guerrero, Lisa Wiggleton; Cannon, Deborah; Nichol, Stuart T; Hirschberg, David L; Lipkin, W Ian; Bausch, Daniel G; Montgomery, Joel M

    2014-02-01

    We investigated hantaviruses in rodents in the southern Amazon Basin of Peru and identified an Andes virus variant from Neacomys spinosus mice. This finding extends the known range of this virus in South America and the range of recognized hantaviruses in Peru. Further studies of the epizoology of hantaviruses in this region are warranted.

  5. Long-term decline of Amazon carbon the sink

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Phillips, O.L.; Feldpausch, T.; Gloor, E.; Baker, T.R.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Pena Claros, M.; Poorter, L.

    2015-01-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades1, 2, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics3, particularly in the Amazon4. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will

  6. The Amazon region: tropical deforestation, biogeochemical cycles and the climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabat, P.; Andreae, M.O.; Silva-Dias, M.A.; Veraart, J.A.; Brink, N.J.

    2003-01-01

    The biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, aerosols, and trace gases in the Amazon Basin, and the interactions between deforestation, rainfall and climate were all investigated in this programme as a part of an integrated cluster of inter-linked and complementary research projects. These i

  7. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Classroom Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijman, Jan; Hill, A. David

    1991-01-01

    Presents a classroom project dealing with tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Addresses environmental consequences and economic, social, and political causes. Involves both lectures and individual research and reports by student groups on deforestation causes. Includes a note-playing activity in which students make recommendations for…

  8. Calha Norte: Explaining Brazilian Army Presence in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    Perimetral Norte (Northern Perimeter Rim Road) that essentially served to "fence in" the Brazilian occupied territories of the Amazon. Another move by the...Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943 13. LT Michael B. Ryan 1604 Red Hill Rd. Dauphin, PA 17018 110

  9. Generation of electric energy in isolated rural communities in the Amazon Region a proposal for the autonomy and sustainability of the local populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Celia Salama [Energy and Environment Planning Program, COPPE/UFRJ - Cidade Universitaria, Centro de Tecnologia, Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil); Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli [Energy and Environment Planning Program, COPPE/UFRJ - Director of COPPE/UFRJ - Cidade Universitaria, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco G, sala 101, Ilha do Fundao, Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil); Silva, Neilton Fidelis da [IVIG/COPPE/UFRJ, CETS, Predio anexo ao Centro de Tecnologia, Rua Pedro Calmon, s/no. Cidade Universitaria, Ilha do Fundao, Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil)

    2011-01-15

    The Brazilian Amazon Region is living with the consequences of governance based on predatory extraction of its natural resources, bringing little or no benefit to the local population. The region suffers from socioeconomic inequality and lack of basic infrastructure. The populations of the Amazon Region, if and when supplied with electricity at all, are provided with a low quality service based on energy generation from fossil fuels, subject to difficulties in terms of access and logistics, and negative environmental impacts. There have been programs aimed at the universalization of electricity services, such as the current Programa Luz para Todos (Light for All Program), but they have not succeeded in altering this scenario in the North region of the country. In this paper we present the result of these initiatives and an overview of the Isolated Systems in the Amazon Region. We propose in this paper that the provision of electric energy be effectively considered part of a plan for generating wealth and employment for the region's inhabitants, whilst preserving the environment. The solutions offered to each community should take into account the need to manage renewable energy sources, should be developed together with local populations, and drawing on the lessons learned from other projects. The specific characteristics and needs of the communities should be taken into account and local people should be empowered as citizens by means of their involvement in the development possibilities. (author)

  10. Rapid diagnostic test for G6PD deficiency in Plasmodium vivax-infected men: a budget impact analysis based in Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peixoto, Henry Maia; Brito, Marcelo Augusto Mota; Romero, Gustavo Adolfo Sierra; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; de Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; de Oliveira, Maria Regina Fernandes

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the incremental budget impact (IBI) of a rapid diagnostic test to detect G6PDd in male patients infected with Plasmodium vivax in the Brazilian Amazon, as compared with the routine protocol recommended in Brazil which does not include G6PDd testing. The budget impact analysis was performed from the perspective of the Brazilian health system, in the Brazilian Amazon for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015. The analysis used a decision model to compare two scenarios: the first consisting of the routine recommended in Brazil which does not include prior diagnosis of dG6PD, and the second based on the use of RDT CareStart™ G6PD (CS-G6PD) in all male subjects diagnosed with vivax malaria. The expected implementation of the diagnostic test was 30% in the first year, 70% the second year and 100% in the third year. The analysis identified negative IBIs which were progressively smaller in the 3 years evaluated. The sensitivity analysis showed that the uncertainties associated with the analytical model did not significantly affect the results. A strategy based on the use of CS-G6PD would result in better use of public resources in the Brazilian Amazon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Electricity access for human development in the Brazilian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez Galindo, Maria Fernanda

    2012-07-01

    Electricity access is widely recognized as a driver of development. The Brazilian government has incorporated this principle into its national rural electrification program, Luz Para Todos (LPT - Light for all), which has already benefited more than 14 million people in the country since its inception in 2003. But a different electrification model is required if remote areas in the Amazon region are to fully benefit from the program. In general, LPT has been implemented through a grid-based technology. However, the program has been less successful in providing electricity access in the Amazon region. In this region, about 24 % of the rural population has no access to electricity. Key challenges are related to the exhaustion of the grid-extension model in isolated areas. Extending the grid in these areas is neither realistic because of the local topography and natural conditions, nor cost-effective because expensive investments would be required to benefit a small number of citizens with low income and consumption rates. This study suggests an adapted LPT model for delivering electricity access in isolated areas of the Amazon region. In particular, the study offers a policy maker perspective and details the specific needs of isolated communities. It was developed in the form of a case study and included a variety of data sources, gathering techniques and analysis approaches, including an extensive literature review, the collection of in-situ evidence through direct observations and semi-structured interviews. Conclusions draw attention to the need for more local and site-specific solutions. Three issues will be decisive in achieving universal, reliable and affordable access to electricity in the Amazon region. Firstly, harmonization with the regional context is essential as the Amazon is a vast and unique environment. Secondly, there is need for adapting the existing institutional structures to appreciate the conditions and specific needs of rural populations in the

  12. Monitoring the Amazon plume northwestward transport along Lagrangian pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Severine; Gaultier, Lucile; Vandemark, Douglas; Lee, Tong; Gierach, Michelle

    2016-04-01

    Large rivers are important to marine air-sea interactions and local biogeochemistry. By modifying the local and regional sea surface salinity (SSS), the freshwater inputs associated with major river plumes cause the formation of a layer near the surface with salinity stratification but near-uniform temperature, known as the barrier layer (BL). The BL prevent exchanges between the warm mixed layer and the cold ocean interior, and thus affect the vertical mixing of heat between the mixed layer and the thermocline. This can have an important impact on air-sea interactions such as hurricanes intensification. Our study focuses on the Amazon and Orinoco rivers, respectively the first and fourth world's largest rivers in terms of discharge. Amazon-Orinoco waters are carried northwestward by the North Brazilian Current (NBC) during the first part of the year and then eastward along the North Equatorial Counter Current. The hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic extends from June through November, the period of Amazon-Orinoco plume maximum northwestward extension, on a hurricane route. Being able to monitor the spatial and temporal dispersal of the Amazon and Orinoco river plumes is therefore important to better understand their impact on barrier layer thickness and SST variation at seasonal to interannual time scales. Variations from year to year in spatial extent of the plume may result from several processes including changes in Amazon discharge, ocean advection, turbulent mixing, and wind field. Satellite remote sensing data provide several means to visualize the surface dispersal of the Amazon plume, with ocean color data being the first to track it in the tropical Atlantic ocean further than 1000 km from shore. With the launches of the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the NASA Aquarius/SAC-D missions, we are now able to use the SSS observations in combination with ocean color, altimetry and sea surface temperature observations to track surface plume

  13. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  14. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  15. Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldpausch, T. R.; Phillips, O. L.; Brienen, R. J. W.; Gloor, E.; Lloyd, J.; Lopez-Gonzalez, G.; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A.; Malhi, Y.; Alarcón, A.; Álvarez Dávila, E.; Alvarez-Loayza, P.; Andrade, A.; Aragao, L. E. O. C.; Arroyo, L.; Aymard C., G. A.; Baker, T. R.; Baraloto, C.; Barroso, J.; Bonal, D.; Castro, W.; Chama, V.; Chave, J.; Domingues, T. F.; Fauset, S.; Groot, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Laurance, S.; Laurance, W. F.; Lewis, S. L.; Licona, J. C.; Marimon, B. S.; Marimon-Junior, B. H.; Mendoza Bautista, C.; Neill, D. A.; Oliveira, E. A.; Oliveira dos Santos, C.; Pallqui Camacho, N. C.; Pardo-Molina, G.; Prieto, A.; Quesada, C. A.; Ramírez, F.; Ramírez-Angulo, H.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Rudas, A.; Saiz, G.; Salomão, R. P.; Silva-Espejo, J. E.; Silveira, M.; Steege, H.; Stropp, J.; Terborgh, J.; Thomas-Caesar, R.; Heijden, G. M. F.; Vásquez Martinez, R.; Vilanova, E.; Vos, V. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin-wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin-wide ground-based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground-based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: -0.43 Mg ha-1, confidence interval (CI): -1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long-term biomass sink during the baseline pre-2010 drought period (1998 to pre-2010) of 1.33 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p drought (i.e., reversal of the baseline net sink) was -1.95 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (CI:-2.77, -1.18; p drought history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre-2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin-wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (-0.07 Pg C yr-1 CI:-0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land-atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long-term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

  16. Priority Areas for Establishing National Forests in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adalberto Veríssimo

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazil will benefit if it gains control of its vast Amazonian timber resources. Without immediate planning, the fate of much of the Amazon will be decided by predatory and largely unregulated timber interests. Logging in the Amazon is a transient process of natural resource mining. Older logging frontiers are being exhausted of timber resources and will face severe wood shortages within 5 yr. The Brazilian government can avoid the continued repetition of this process in frontier areas by establishing a network of National Forests (Florestas Nacionais or Flonas to stabilize the timber industry and simultaneously protect large tracts of forest. Flonas currently comprise less than 2% of the Brazilian Amazon (83,000 km2. If all these forests were used for sustainable logging, they would provide less than 10% of the demand for Amazonian timber. To sustainably supply the present and near-future demand for timber, approximately 700,000 km2 of the Amazon forest needs to be brought into well-managed production. Brazil's National Forest Program, launched in 2000, is designed to create at least 400,000 km2 of new Flonas. Objective decision-making tools are needed to site these new national forests. We present here a method for optimally locating the needed Flonas that incorporates information on existing protected areas, current vegetation cover, areas of human occupation, and timber stocks. The method combines these data in a spatial database that makes it possible to model the economic potential of the region's various forests as a function of their accessibility and timber values while constraining model solutions for existing areas of protection or human occupation. Our results indicate that 1.15 x 106 km2 of forests (23% of the Brazilian Amazon could be established as Flonas in a manner that will promote sustainable forest management; these Flonas would also serve as buffer zones for fully protected areas such as parks and reserves.

  17. Achieving zero deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: What is missing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Moutinho

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Amazon deforestation causes severe climatic and ecological disruptions, with negative consequences for the livelihood of forest-dependent peoples. To avoid further disruptions, Brazil will need to take bold steps to eliminate both illegal and legal Amazon deforestation over the short term. Amazon deforestation declined by 70% between 2005 and 2014 due to drops in commodity prices and interventions by federal and state governments, such as law enforcement campaigns and credit restrictions for landowners who deforest illegally. Despite these impressive achievements, Brazil still deforests 5,000 km2 of Amazonian forests each year. How then will Brazil eliminate Amazon deforestation altogether if the country is only committed to cut illegal deforestation by 2030—as stated in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (iNDC to the 2015 climate change treaty meeting in Paris? Here we provide an analysis of the major socio-economic-political threats that could constrain Brazil from achieving its current goals. We then propose six fundamental strategies to help Brazil achieve a more ambitious goal to eliminate all major legal and illegal Amazon deforestation. These strategies involve bringing social and environmental safeguards to the infrastructure plans in the region, consolidating and expanding positive incentives for the production of sustainable commodities, establishing a new policy to guarantee the social and environmental sustainability of rural settlements, fully implementing the national legislation protecting forests (the Forest Code, protecting the land rights of indigenous people and traditional communities, and expanding the existing network of protected areas, allocating the 80 million hectares of not designated public forests as protected areas or areas for sustainable use of timber and non-timber forest products. The implementation of these strategies however depends on the formulation of a new development paradigm that

  18. The terms traditional “populations” and “communities” and the appropriation of the concepts in the Amazon reality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Rowsy Amorim de Castro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review the use of the terminology traditional “populations” and “communities”, highlighting the ambiguities of their uses and appropriation of both concepts in the Amazon reality. The work is the result of a literature search, where surveys have been conducted on the subject. In literature the use of the terms traditional “population” and “communities” it seems to be more of a semantic preference than epistemological and conceptual distances, since the authors use both terms, usually with the same connotation, although there are criticisms related the use of terminology. In Brazilian legislative and legal proceedings there is the use of two terms, as in the case of the National Protected Areas System (Law N° 9.985/2000 and Decree 6040/2007, which prevails in the first the term “populations” and in the second, “peoples and communities”, which does not reflect, however, significant differences in how the definitions of the characteristics of these traditional groups. In the scenario of Amazon biological and cultural diversity, the appropriation of both definitions “population” and “community” contributes to the understanding of social collectivities categories that fight for recognition and to maintain their way of life.

  19. Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in free-living Amazon river dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from central Amazon, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important pathogen in aquatic mammals and its presence in these animals may indicate water contamination of aquatic environment by oocysts. Serum samples from 95 dolphins from free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from Sustainable Development Reserve Mamirauá (...

  20. Late Miocene onset of the Amazon River and the Amazon deep-sea fan: Evidence from the Foz do Amazonas Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Figueiredo, J.; Hoorn, C.; van der Ven, P.; Soares, E.

    2009-01-01

    New biostratigraphic, isotopic, and well log data from exploration wells on the outer continental shelf and uppermost Amazon deep-sea fan, Brazil, reveal that the Amazon River was initiated as a transcontinental river between 11.8 and 11.3 Ma ago (middle to late Miocene), and reached its present sha

  1. Late Miocene onset of the Amazon River and the Amazon deep-sea fan: Evidence from the Foz do Amazonas Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Figueiredo, J.; Hoorn, C.; van der Ven, P.; Soares, E.

    2009-01-01

    New biostratigraphic, isotopic, and well log data from exploration wells on the outer continental shelf and uppermost Amazon deep-sea fan, Brazil, reveal that the Amazon River was initiated as a transcontinental river between 11.8 and 11.3 Ma ago (middle to late Miocene), and reached its present sha

  2. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  3. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  4. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  5. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  6. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  7. Mapping future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability based on perceptions of small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio H. Diniz

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is a widely recognized problem in the Brazilian Amazon. Small farmers play a key role in this process in that they earn their livelihood by ranching and farming. Many studies have addressed the link between deforestation and livelihood strategies adopted by small farmers. Most have focused on advanced monitoring systems, simulation models, and GIS approaches to analyze the interaction of both dimensions, i.e., livelihoods and forest cover change. Although the current toolbox of methods has proved successful in increasing our understanding of these interactions, the models and approaches employed do not consider small farmers' perspectives. On the assumption that local small farmers are agents of land-cover change, understanding how they perceive their own situation is essential to elucidate their actions. Our objective is to explore future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability as envisaged by local small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous livelihood cluster analysis of small farmers located in southeast Pará was integrated with fuzzy cognitive mapping to determine present perceptions and to explore future changes, using global scenarios downscaled to the local situation. Overall, system description differs only on details; all results indicate a strong trade-off between livelihood security and environmental sustainability in all livelihood systems, as identified by the small farmers. However, fundamentally different outcomes are obtained from the future analysis, depending on the livelihood strategy cluster. Achieving win-win outcomes does not necessarily imply a positive scenario, especially if small farmers are dependent on income transfers from the government to provide their livelihood.

  8. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are discussed: the limits to growth (the great tragedy and demise); sustainable development and ecological modernization (hope and innovation); and the Anthrop...

  9. The impact of rise of the Andes and Amazon landscape evolution on diversification of lowland terra-firme forest birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, A.; Wilkinson, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    upland terra-firme forest develop. The youngest landsurfaces thus appear to lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion from a northward (Caribbean) outlet to a generally eastward, Atlantic Ocean outlet. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. The bird DNA data appears to confirm the role of Amazonian rivers as primary diversification barriers, and thus probably as promoters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers of apparently different ages ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

  10. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  11. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  12. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  13. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  14. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  15. ANALISIS E-BISNIS TERHADAP AMAZON DAN AQUARELLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustinna Yosanny

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The internet and digital world is one thing that needs to be taken into account by the Company. Business through Internet, known as e-business, is another way to increase the relation between company and customers or prospective customers. Analysis from the view point of customers and the integration of technologies was conducted on 2 examples sites that well known in doing online business but have different history on how it started the e-commerce. They are Amazon and Aquarelle. By comparing the two sites, the characteristics of e-commerce sites could be studied. As a result, there are striking differences between these two sites, where Amazon is more oriented to sales, while Aquarelle more on customer-oriented impact to the design and implementation of their e-business.

  16. International media spotlight on the Amazon roams, but rarely enlightens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Tollefson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The international media has played a powerful role by highlighting problems in the Brazilian Amazon, projecting the views of scientists and activists and projecting data from Brazil’s satellite monitoring program to throughout society. Journalists have also told powerful stories about violence and corruption and put pressure on both the Brazilian government and the agribusiness industry. But very few have attempted to explain the forces at work in the Brazilian Amazon today, despite the fact that the drop in deforestation, if sustained, would represent perhaps a singular environmental success story that could have repercussions across the world. If the goal of the media is to seek and promote understanding in the midst of confusion and debate, journalists must engage on a deeper level.

  17. Atmospheric turbulence within and above an Amazon forest

    CERN Document Server

    Ramos, F M; Sá, L D A; Rosa, R R; Ramos, Fernando M.; Bolzan, Mauricio J. A.; Sa, Leonardo D. A.; Rosa, Reinaldo R.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the impact of a rain forest canopy on the statistical characteristics of atmospheric turbulence. This issue is of particular interest for understanding on how the Amazon terrestrial biosphere interact with the atmosphere. For this, we used a probability density function model of velocity and temperature differences based on Tsallis' non-extensive thermostatistics. We compared theoretical results with experimental data measured in a 66 m micrometeorological tower, during the wet-season campaign of the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). Particularly, we investigated how the value of the entropic parameter is affected when one moves into the canopy, or when one passes from day/unstable to night/stable conditions. We show that this new approach provides interesting insights on turbulence in a complex environment such as the Amazon forest.

  18. Tree ring reconstructed rainfall over the southern Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Lidio; Stahle, David; Villalba, Ricardo; Torbenson, Max; Feng, Song; Cook, Edward

    2017-07-01

    Moisture sensitive tree ring chronologies of Centrolobium microchaete have been developed from seasonally dry forests in the southern Amazon Basin and used to reconstruct wet season rainfall totals from 1799 to 2012, adding over 150 years of rainfall estimates to the short instrumental record for the region. The reconstruction is correlated with the same atmospheric variables that influence the instrumental measurements of wet season rainfall. Anticyclonic circulation over midlatitude South America promotes equatorward surges of cold and relatively dry extratropical air that converge with warm moist air to form deep convection and heavy rainfall over this sector of the southern Amazon Basin. Interesting droughts and pluvials are reconstructed during the preinstrumental nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the tree ring reconstruction suggests that the strong multidecadal variability in instrumental and reconstructed wet season rainfall after 1950 may have been unmatched since 1799.

  19. Remote tropical and sub-tropical responses to Amazon deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badger, Andrew M.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

    2016-05-01

    Replacing natural vegetation with realistic tropical crops over the Amazon region in a global Earth system model impacts vertical transport of heat and moisture, modifying the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. Vertical velocity is decreased over a majority of the Amazon region, shifting the ascending branch and modifying the seasonality of the Hadley circulation over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. Using a simple model that relates circulation changes to heating anomalies and generalizing the upper-atmosphere temperature response to deforestation, agreement is found between the response in the fully-coupled model and the simple solution. These changes to the large-scale dynamics significantly impact precipitation in several remote regions, namely sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, the southwestern United States and extratropical South America, suggesting non-local climate repercussions for large-scale land use changes in the tropics are possible.

  20. Reserves protect against deforestation fires in the Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Marion Adeney

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon.

  1. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Moutinho, Paulo; Nepstad, Daniel; Anderson, Anthony; Rodrigues, Hermann; Garcia, Ricardo; Dietzsch, Laura; Merry, Frank; Bowman, Maria; Hissa, Letícia; Silvestrini, Rafaella; Maretti, Cláudio

    2010-06-15

    Protected areas (PAs) now shelter 54% of the remaining forests of the Brazilian Amazon and contain 56% of its forest carbon. However, the role of these PAs in reducing carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from deforestation and their associated costs are still uncertain. To fill this gap, we analyzed the effect of each of 595 Brazilian Amazon PAs on deforestation using a metric that accounts for differences in probability of deforestation in areas of pairwise comparison. We found that the three major categories of PA (indigenous land, strictly protected, and sustainable use) showed an inhibitory effect, on average, between 1997 and 2008. Of 206 PAs created after the year 1999, 115 showed increased effectiveness after their designation as protected. The recent expansion of PAs in the Brazilian Amazon was responsible for 37% of the region's total reduction in deforestation between 2004 and 2006 without provoking leakage. All PAs, if fully implemented, have the potential to avoid 8.0 +/- 2.8 Pg of carbon emissions by 2050. Effectively implementing PAs in zones under high current or future anthropogenic threat offers high payoffs for reducing carbon emissions, and as a result should receive special attention in planning investments for regional conservation. Nevertheless, this strategy demands prompt and predictable resource streams. The Amazon PA network represents a cost of US$147 +/- 53 billion (net present value) for Brazil in terms of forgone profits and investments needed for their consolidation. These costs could be partially compensated by an international climate accord that includes economic incentives for tropical countries that reduce their carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

  2. Reserves protect against deforestation fires in the Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeney, J Marion; Christensen, Norman L; Pimm, Stuart L

    2009-01-01

    Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon.

  3. Motif Analysis in the Amazon Product Co-Purchasing Network

    OpenAIRE

    Srivastava, Abhishek

    2010-01-01

    Online stores like Amazon and Ebay are growing by the day. Fewer people go to departmental stores as opposed to the convenience of purchasing from stores online. These stores may employ a number of techniques to advertise and recommend the appropriate product to the appropriate buyer profile. This article evaluates various 3-node and 4-node motifs occurring in such networks. Community structures are evaluated too.These results may provide interesting insights into user behavior and a better u...

  4. Reshaping Text Data for Efficient Processing on Amazon EC2

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriela Turcu; Ian Foster; Svetlozar Nestorov

    2011-01-01

    Text analysis tools are nowadays required to process increasingly large corpora which are often organized as small files (abstracts, news articles, etc.). Cloud computing offers a convenient, on-demand, pay-as-you-go computing environment for solving such problems. We investigate provisioning on the Amazon EC2 cloud from the user perspective, attempting to provide a scheduling strategy that is both timely and cost effective. We derive an execution plan using an empirically determined applicat...

  5. Climate change, deforestation and the fate of Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberti G

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, deforestation and the fate of Amazon. Understanding and mitigation the impact of the increasing population and global economic activities on tropical forests is one of the greatest challenges for scientists and policy makers. A summary of some of the latest findings and thinking on this topic has been reported by Malhi and colleagues in a recent paper published on Science. An overview and comments on this paper is herein proposed.

  6. Palm diversity and abundance in the Colombian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balslev, Henrik; Copete, Juan Carlos; Pedersen, Dennis

    2017-01-01

    We studied diversity and abundance of palms in the eastern Colombian Amazon in 71 transects, 61 measuring 5×500 m and 10 transects measuring 4×500 m, innventoring a total of 17.25 hectares. We found a total of 74 species in 21 genera. In terra firme we found 68 species in 20 genera and an average...... found in this study (Euterpe precatoria, Oenocarpus bataua, Attalea butyracea, Iriartella setigera) coincide with dominant species in other Amazonian palm communities....

  7. Crowd Sourcing Data Collection through Amazon Mechanical Turk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    response (HR) file in compliance with a Broad Evaluation Plan ( BEP ) issued as part of the larger 7 project. Every response presented in the HR file...of variance API application programming interface ARL U.S. Army Research Laboratory BEP Broad Evaluation Plan DT:CS Description Task...truth data in the form of action labels for these videos as interpreted by human respondents. Amazon Mechanical Turk was identified as the service to

  8. Soybeans, Poverty and Inequality in the Brazilian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Weinhold, Diana; Killick, Evan; Reis, Eustaquio Jose

    2011-01-01

    The recent growth of soybean cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon has been unprecedented, even as the debate continues over its economic and environmental consequences. Based on contemporary datasets as well as our own field studies, this paper examines the social and economic costs and benefits of increases in soybean production for local populations. After presenting some background information on the rise of soybean cultivation in Brazil we examine the relationship between increases in soyb...

  9. Impacts of Amazon deforestation on regional weather and climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Walko, R. L.; Avissar, R.

    2010-12-01

    Recent deforestation projections estimate that 40% of the Amazon rainforest will be deforested by 2050. Many modeling studies have indicated that deforestation will reduce average rainfall in the Amazon. However, very few studies have investigated the potential for deforestation to change the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. To fill this gap in our understanding, we use a variable-resolution GCM to investigate how precipitation and temperature extremes throughout South America respond to deforestation. The model’s grid mesh is set up to cover South America and nearby oceans at mesoscale (25 km) resolution, and then to gradually coarsen and cover the rest of the world at 200 km resolution. This approach differs from the two most common current approaches: (1) to use a GCM with too coarse of a resolution to evaluate regional climate extremes, or (2) to use a regional atmospheric model that requires lateral boundary conditions from a GCM or reanalysis. We find that deforestation induces large changes in winter (June-July-August) climate throughout much of South America. Extreme cold events become much more common along the eastern slopes of the Andes. The largest changes were in the western Amazon and, surprisingly, in Argentina, far from the actual deforested area. We also find shifts in precipitation extremes, especially in September-October-November. Such changes in temperature and precipitation extremes have important consequences for agriculture, natural ecosystems, and human society.

  10. Large-scale Modeling of Inundation in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, X.; Li, H. Y.; Getirana, A.; Leung, L. R.; Tesfa, T. K.

    2015-12-01

    Flood events have impacts on the exchange of energy, water and trace gases between land and atmosphere, hence potentially affecting the climate. The Amazon River basin is the world's largest river basin. Seasonal floods occur in the Amazon Basin each year. The basin being characterized by flat gradients, backwater effects are evident in the river dynamics. This factor, together with large uncertainties in river hydraulic geometry, surface topography and other datasets, contribute to difficulties in simulating flooding processes over this basin. We have developed a large-scale inundation scheme in the framework of the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) river routing model. Both the kinematic wave and the diffusion wave routing methods are implemented in the model. A new process-based algorithm is designed to represent river channel - floodplain interactions. Uncertainties in the input datasets are partly addressed through model calibration. We will present the comparison of simulated results against satellite and in situ observations and analysis to understand factors that influence inundation processes in the Amazon Basin.

  11. Artisanal fisheries of the Xingu River basin in Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, V J; Almeida, M C; Cruz, R E A; Nunes, L G

    2015-08-01

    The present study characterises the commercial fisheries of the basin of the Xingu River, a major tributary of the Amazon River, between the towns of Gurupá (at the mouth of the Amazon) and São Félix do Xingu. Between April, 2012, and March, 2014, a total of 23,939 fishing trips were recorded, yielding a total production of 1,484 tons of fish, harvested by almost three thousand fishers. The analysis of the catches emphasizes the small-scale and artisanal nature of the region's fisheries, with emphasis on the contribution of the motorised canoes powered by "long-tail" outboard motors. Larger motorboats operate only at the mouth of the Xingu and on the Amazon. Peacock bass (Cichla spp.), croakers (Plagioscion spp.), pacu (a group containing numerous serrasalmid species), aracu (various anostomids), and curimatã (Prochilodus nigricans) together contributed more than 60% of the total catch. Mean catch per unit effort was 18 kg/fisher-1.day-1, which varied among fishing methods (type of vessel and fishing equipment used), river sections, and time of the year. In most cases, yields varied little between years (2012 and 2013). The technical database provided by this study constitutes an important resource for the regulation of the region's fisheries, as well as for the evaluation of future changes resulting from the construction of the Belo Monte dam on the Xingu River.

  12. Ballast water: a threat to the Amazon Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Newton Narciso; Botter, Rui Carlos; Folena, Rafael Dompieri; Pereira, José Pinheiro Fragoso Neto; da Cunha, Alan Cavalcanti

    2014-07-15

    Ballast water exchange (BWE) is the most efficient measure to control the invasion of exotic species from ships. This procedure is being used for merchant ships in national and international voyages. The ballast water (BW) salinity is the main parameter to evaluate the efficacy of the mid-ocean ballast water exchange. The vessels must report to the Port State Control (PSC), via ballast water report (BWR), where and how the mid-ocean BWE was performed. This measure allows the PSC to analyze this information before the ship arrives at the port, and to decide whether or not it should berth. Ship BW reporting forms were collected from the Captaincy of Santana and some ships were visited near the Port of Santana, located in Macapá (Amazon River), to evaluate the BW quality onboard. We evaluated data submitted in these BWR forms and concluded that the BWE efficacy might be compromised, because data contained in these BWR indicate that some ships did not change their BW. We found mistakes in filling the BWR forms and lack of information. Moreover, these ships had discharged BW with high level of salinity, Escherichia coli and total coliforms into the Amazon River. We concluded that the authorities of the Amazon Region need to develop more efficient proceedings to evaluate the ballast water reporting forms and BW quality, as there is potential risk of future invasion of exotic species in Brazilian ports.

  13. Deforestation, floodplain dynamics, and carbon biogeochemistry in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, M. L.; Dunne, T.; Richey, J.; Melack, J.; Simonett, D. S.; Woodwell, G.

    1984-07-01

    Three aspects of the physical geographic environment of the Amazon Basin are considered: (1) deforestation and reforestation, (2) floodplain dynamics, and (3) fluvial geomorphology. Three independent projects are coupled in this experiment to improve the in-place research and to ensure that the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) experiment stands on a secure base of ongoing work. Major benefits to be obtained center on: (1) areal and locational information, (2) data from various depression angles, and (3) digital radar signatures. Analysis will be conducted for selected sites to define how well SIR-B data can be used for: (1) definition of extent and location of deforestation in a tropical moist forest, (2) definition and quantification of the nature of the vegetation and edaphic conditions on the (floodplain) of the Amazon River, and (3) quantification of the accuracy with which the geometry and channel shifting of the Amazon River may be mapped using SIR-B imagery in conjunction with other remote sensing data.

  14. Rural electrification of the Brazilian Amazon. Achievements and lessons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez, Maria F.; Silveira, Semida [Energy and Climate Studies, Department of Energy Technology, Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Brinellvaegen 68, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2010-10-15

    The Brazilian government has the ambition to provide complete electricity coverage for all citizens as a means to promote development and reduce inequalities. Full coverage implies the provision of electricity to 15 million people in the country by the end of 2010 through the program Luz para Todos (LPT - light for all) launched in 2003. So far, 11 million people have benefited, 2 million of which live in the Amazon. In this paper, we analyze the linkages between development and rural electrification through the Human Development Index (HDI) and within the context of the Amazon. We examine the suitability of the HDI as a planning and monitoring tool for improving energy access and development. We show that the recognition of electricity access as a driver for development has led to concrete goals for electrification, actual action and welfare improvement. Our study serves to highlight the role of LPT in the development of the Amazon region, and the specific features and achievements of the Brazilian policy for universal electrification. We conclude that some challenges related to the electrification of isolated areas still lie ahead. We finalize with a discussion on the relevance of the Brazilian experience to other developing countries. (author)

  15. Oil frontiers and indigenous resistance in the Peruvian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orta-Martinez, Marti [ICTA, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona (Spain); Finer, Matt [Save America' s Forests, 4 Library Court. NW, Washington DC 20003 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    The Peruvian Amazon is culturally and biologically one of the most diverse regions on Earth. Since the 1920s oil exploration and extraction in the region have threatened both biodiversity and indigenous peoples, particularly those living in voluntary isolation. We argue that the phenomenon of peak oil, combined with rising demand and consumption, is now pushing oil extraction into the most remote corners of the world. Modern patterns of production and consumption and high oil prices are forcing a new oil exploratory boom in the Peruvian Amazon. While conflicts spread on indigenous territories, new forms of resistance appear and indigenous political organizations are born and become more powerful. The impacts of oil exploration and exploitation and indigenous resistance throughout the oil history of the Peruvian Amazon are reviewed here, focusing on the Achuar people in Rio Corrientes. The driving forces, impacts, and responses to the current oil exploration boom are analyzed from an environmental justice perspective. We conclude that, in a context of peak oil and growing global demand for oil, such devastating effects for minor quantities of oil are likely to increase and impact other remote parts of the world. (author)

  16. Rural electrification of the Brazilian Amazon - Achievements and lessons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez, Maria F., E-mail: maria.gomez@energy.kth.se; Silveira, Semida

    2010-10-15

    The Brazilian government has the ambition to provide complete electricity coverage for all citizens as a means to promote development and reduce inequalities. Full coverage implies the provision of electricity to 15 million people in the country by the end of 2010 through the program Luz para Todos (LPT - light for all) launched in 2003. So far, 11 million people have benefited, 2 million of which live in the Amazon. In this paper, we analyze the linkages between development and rural electrification through the Human Development Index (HDI) and within the context of the Amazon. We examine the suitability of the HDI as a planning and monitoring tool for improving energy access and development. We show that the recognition of electricity access as a driver for development has led to concrete goals for electrification, actual action and welfare improvement. Our study serves to highlight the role of LPT in the development of the Amazon region, and the specific features and achievements of the Brazilian policy for universal electrification. We conclude that some challenges related to the electrification of isolated areas still lie ahead. We finalize with a discussion on the relevance of the Brazilian experience to other developing countries.

  17. Predicting land cover changes in the Amazon rainforest: An ocean-atmosphere-biosphere problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Marcos Paulo Santos; Malhado, Ana Cláudia Mendes; Costa, Marcos Heil

    2012-05-01

    Accurate studies of the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major vegetation types are essential for developing effective conservation and land use policy. Such studies require the development of models that accurately represent the complex and interacting biophysical factors that influence regional patterns of vegetation. Here we investigate the impacts of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on the vegetation of the Amazon, testing the hypothesis that changes in Amazonian vegetation structure are a consequence of an ocean-atmosphere-biosphere interaction. We design a numerical experiment in which we force a coupled climate-biosphere model by 10 SST patterns produced by different IPCC AR4 models, for the A2 scenario for the period 2000-2050. Simulations for 2011-2050 show that certain patterns of SST are likely to decrease the ensemble for tropical evergreen rainforest and savanna, and that these areas will be occupied mainly by tropical deciduous rainforest, emitting an average of 0.53 Pg-C.yr-1 during the transition.

  18. The biomass burning aerosol influence on precipitation over the Central Amazon: an observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. A. Gonçalves

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the aerosol influence on clouds and precipitation is an important key to reduce uncertainties in simulations of climate change scenarios with regards to deforestation fires. Here, we associate rainfall characteristics obtained by an S-Band radar in the Amazon with in situ measurements of biomass burning aerosols for the entire year of 2009. The most important results were obtained during the dry semester (July–December. The results indicate that the aerosol influence on precipitating systems is modulated by the atmospheric instability degree. For stable atmospheres, the higher the aerosol concentration, the lower the precipitation over the region. On the other hand, for unstable cases, higher concentrations of particulate material are associated with more precipitation, elevated presence of ice and larger rain cells, which suggests an association with long lived systems. The results presented were statistically significant. However, due to the limitation imposed by the dataset used, some important features such as wet scavenging and droplet size distribution need further clarification. Regional climate model simulations in addition with new field campaigns could aggregate information to the aerosol/precipitation relationship.

  19. Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

    2010-11-16

    The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

  20. Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii in free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from central Amazon, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, P S; Albuquerque, G R; da Silva, V M F; Martin, A R; Marvulo, M F V; Souza, S L P; Ragozo, A M A; Nascimento, C C; Gennari, S M; Dubey, J P; Silva, J C R

    2011-12-29

    Toxoplasma gondii is an important pathogen in aquatic mammals and its presence in these animals may indicate the water contamination of aquatic environment by oocysts. Serum samples from 95 free-living Amazon River dolphins (Inia geoffrensis) from the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (RDSM), Tefé, Amazonas, Central Amazon, Brazil were tested for T. gondii antibodies using the modified agglutination test (MAT). Antibodies (MAT ≥ 25) to T. gondii were found in 82 (86.3%) dolphins with titers of 1:25 in 24, 1:50 in 56, and 1:500 in 2. Results suggest a high level contamination of the aquatic environment of the home range of these animals.

  1. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  2. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  3. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  4. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  5. Could the STARS detect deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mello, M. P.; Trabaquini, K.; Rudorff, B. F.; Oliveira, J. C.

    2013-05-01

    The Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) has been monitoring the Brazilian Legal Amazon deforestation through the PRODES project since 1988, providing yearly deforestation maps based on about 60 m spatial resolution. Additionally, INPE's Real Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER) has monthly indicating, based on high temporal resolution satellite data, where and when the forest is being felled. However, those monitoring processes are mainly based on visual interpretation, which is accurate but a hard and time consuming task. The Spectral-Temporal Analysis by Response Surface (STARS), which synthesizes the full information content of a multitemporal-multispectral remote sensing image dataset to represent the spectral variation over time of features on the Earth's surface, comes as an alternative for applications in land cover change detection, such as deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Thus, since deforestation process presents particular spectral changes over time, spectral-temporal response surfaces could be fitted to describe its change patterns, allowing to detect deforested areas. In this context, this work aims to apply the STARS to detect deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, using Landsat-5 multitemporal-multispectral images. Four georeferenced images covering about 3.400 square kilometres within the Mato Grosso State, Brazil (13°17'S; 55°50'W to 14°20'S; 55°10'W) were used: one Multispectral Scanner (MSS) image from 1980 (bands 4, 5, 6 and 7 - 60 m spatial resolution); and three Thematic Mapper (TM) images from 1990, 2000 and 2010 (bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 - 30 m spatial resolution). The MSS image was resampled to 30 m to match the TM spatial resolution. All images were then used as input for STARS resulting in a Multi-Coefficient Image (MCI) with 10 synthetic bands formed by the 10 fitted coefficients of a Polynomial Trend Surface (PTS) model with degree equal to three. The MCI was used as input for a decision tree (DT

  6. Size Resolved measurements of aerosol hygroscopicity and mixing state during Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thalman, R. M.; Artaxo, P.; Campuzano Jost, P.; Barbosa, H. M.; Day, D. A.; de Sá, S. S.; Hu, W.; Jimenez, J. L.; Kuang, C.; Palm, B. B.; Krüger, M. L.; Manzi, A. O.; Martin, S. T.; Poeschl, U.; Sedlacek, A. J., III; Senum, G.; Souza, R. A. F. D.; Springston, S. R.; Alexander, M. L.; Watson, T. B.; Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    Measurements of size-resolved cloud condensation nucleai (CCN) spectra were performed at the T3 site of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field project located near Manacapuru, Brazil during 2014. The T3 site is a receptor site for both polluted urban down-wind (Manaus, BR a city of several million 70 km up wind) and background (Amazon rainforest) air-masses and can provide a contrast between clean and polluted conditions. Particle hygroscopicity (kappa) and mixing state were calculated from the particle activation spectrum measured by size selecting aerosols and exposing them to a wide range of supersaturation in the CCN counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies Continuous-Flow Streamwise Thermal Gradient CCN Chamber). The supersaturation was varied between 0.07 and 1.1% by changing a combination of both total flow rate and temperature gradient in the CCN counter. Measured spectra were examined for air masses with different level of influence from Manaus plume. Particle hygroscopicity generally peaked near noon local time which was broadly consistent with the trend in aerosol sulfate. The average kappa values during the first intensive operation period were 0.14±0.05, 0.14±0.04 and 0.16±0.06 for 75, 112 and 171 nm particles respectively. Evaluation of particle hygroscopicity and dispersion (mixing state) will be presented with respect to size and level of pollution.

  7. Assessing the Amazon Basin Circulation with Stable Water Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuffie, K.; Henderson-Sellers, A.

    2004-05-01

    The isotopic abundances of Oxygen-18 (δ 18O) and Deuterium (δ D) over the Amazon are used to constrain simulations of the water cycle in this, the largest river basin in the world. Tracking the two stable but rare isotopes of water (1HD16O and 1H218O) makes it possible to trace Amazonian regional evaporative and condensation processes. This offers isotopic constraints on regional to global-scale atmospheric moisture budgets. Based on data in the Global Network on Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database, we analyse the simulation of the land surface hydrology and water cycling. Temporal changes between 1965 and 2000 in stable water isotopic signatures in the Amazon have been used to evaluate global climate model (GCM) predictions revealing notable anomalies. For example, the differences in the wet season deuterium excess between Belem and Manaus are consistent with recent GCM simulations only if there has been a relative increase in evaporation from non-fractionating water sources over this period. Despite earlier predictions that land-use change signals would be found, late twentieth century data reveal no significant change in dry season isotopic characteristics. On the other hand, more recent isotopic data do show trends at stations in the Andes, where as much as 88% of the rainfall is thought to be derived from recycled moisture. At Izobamba the wet season depletions are enhanced (greater depletion) and the dry season ones decreased (less depletion). At Bogota only the wet months show statistically significant changes - also an enhancement. More depletion in the wet months is consistent with reductions in non-fractioning recycling such as through transpiration and in full re-evaporation of canopy-intercepted rainfall. These data might be linked to deforestation impacts. Results of GCM and simpler model simulations of the Amazon suggest that the recent stable isotope record is consistent with the predicted effects of forest removal, perhaps combined with

  8. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  9. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  10. Atmospheric correction analysis on LANDSAT data over the Amazon region. [Manaus, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Dias, L. A. V.; Dossantos, J. R.; Formaggio, A. R.

    1983-01-01

    The Amazon Region natural resources were studied in two ways and compared. A LANDSAT scene and its attributes were selected, and a maximum likelihood classification was made. The scene was atmospherically corrected, taking into account Amazonic peculiarities revealed by (ground truth) of the same area, and the subsequent classification. Comparison shows that the classification improves with the atmospherically corrected images.

  11. Transforming Data: An Ethnography of Scientific Data from the Brazilian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walford, Antonia Caitlin

    This thesis is an ethnography of scientific data produced by a Brazil-led scientific project in the Brazilian Amazon. It describes how the researchers and technicians make data about the Amazon forest, and how this data in turn generates different scientific communities, scientific subjectivities...

  12. A Slippery Slope: Children's Perceptions of Their Role in Environmental Preservation in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Despite international attention and attempts to preserve the environmental diversity of the Amazon, it is an accepted fact that those who inhabit the forest must be the ones who preserve it. This article presents an analysis of how children in small rural riverine communities along the Amazon understand the importance of environmental preservation…

  13. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S.; Verburg, R.W.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Bursztyn, M.; Vilhena, A.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied drive

  14. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S; Verburg, R.W.; Bursztyn, M; Lindoso, D; Debortoli, N

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied drive

  15. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S.; Verburg, R.W.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Bursztyn, M.; Vilhena, A.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied drive

  16. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S; Verburg, R.W.; Bursztyn, M; Lindoso, D; Debortoli, N

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied drive

  17. First record of Anastrepha flavipennis Greene (Diptera: Tephritidae) and of its host in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrêa, E C; Silva, N M; Silva, F C C; Pena, M R

    2011-01-01

    Anastrepha flavipennis Greene was obtained from Pouteria glomerata (Sapotaceae) fruits, known as "abiurana-da-várzea" in the Brazilian Amazon. This is the first record of A. flavipennis for the state of Amazonas and of P. glomerata as a host for this fruit fly in the Amazon Basin.

  18. A Slippery Slope: Children's Perceptions of Their Role in Environmental Preservation in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Despite international attention and attempts to preserve the environmental diversity of the Amazon, it is an accepted fact that those who inhabit the forest must be the ones who preserve it. This article presents an analysis of how children in small rural riverine communities along the Amazon understand the importance of environmental preservation…

  19. East of the Andes: The genetic profile of the Peruvian Amazon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Corcia, T; Sanchez Mellado, C; Davila Francia, T J; Ferri, G; Sarno, S; Luiselli, D; Rickards, O

    2017-06-01

    Assuming that the differences between the Andes and the Amazon rainforest at environmental and historical levels have influenced the distribution patterns of genes, languages, and cultures, the maternal and paternal genetic reconstruction of the Peruvian Amazon populations was used to test the relationships within and between these two extreme environments. We analyzed four Peruvian Amazon communities (Ashaninka, Huambisa, Cashibo, and Shipibo) for both Y chromosome (17 STRs and 8 SNPs) and mtDNA data (control region sequences, two diagnostic sites of the coding region, and one INDEL), and we studied their variability against the rest of South America. We detected a high degree of genetic diversity in the Peruvian Amazon people, both for mtDNA than for Y chromosome, excepting for Cashibo people, who seem to have had no exchanges with their neighbors, in contrast with the others communities. The genetic structure follows the divide between the Andes and the Amazon, but we found a certain degree of gene flow between these two environments, as particularly emerged with the Y chromosome descent cluster's (DCs) analysis. The Peruvian Amazon is home to an array of populations with differential rates of genetic exchanges with their neighbors and with the Andean people, depending on their peculiar demographic histories. We highlighted some successful Y chromosome lineages expansions originated in Peru during the pre-Columbian history which involved both Andeans and Amazon Arawak people, showing that at least a part of the Amazon rainforest did not remain isolated from those exchanges. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Localised Voices in the globalised Amazon: challenges of civil society building in Ecuador

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brian Wallis (Brian)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCivil society building efforts in Ecuador have provided the Achuar and Kichwas of the Amazon with a voice. This is particularly relevant given the global significance of the Amazon, which makes it essential that local voices are empowered to have a say in the future of their local space.

  1. Effects of environmental change on malaria in the Amazon region of Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Takken, W.; Tarso Vilarinhos, de P.; Schneider, P.; Santos, dos F.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is endemic in Brazil, affecting mostly the Amazon states. Whereas 50 years ago good progress was made towards its control, since the opening up of the Amazon region for forestry, agriculture and livestock activities, the disease has rapidly increased in incidence, peaking to >500,000 case

  2. Vibrio cholerae O1 from superficial water of the Tucunduba Stream, Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, L.L.C.; Vale, E.R.V.; Garza, D.R.; Vicente, A.C.P.

    2012-01-01

    Isolation and genetic characterization of an environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 from the Amazon is reported. This strain lacks two major virulence factors - CTX and TCP - but carries other genes related to virulence. Genetic similarity with epidemic strains is evaluated and the importance of V. cholerae surveillance in the Amazon is emphasized. PMID:24031874

  3. The JERS Amazon Multi-Season Mapping Study (JAMMS): Observation Strategies and Data Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, B.; Freeman, A.; Siqueira, P.

    2000-01-01

    The JERS-1 Amazon Multi-season Mapping Study (JAMMS), part of the Global Rain Forest Mapping (GRFM) project led by the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA), had an ambitious agenda to completely map the Amazon River floodpain (and surrounding areas) twice at high resolution.

  4. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  5. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  6. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  7. Large-scale expansion of agriculture in Amazonia may be a no-win scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Leydimere J. C.; Costa, Marcos H.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

    2013-06-01

    Using simplified climate and land-use models, we evaluated primary forests’ carbon storage and soybean and pasture productivity in the Brazilian Legal Amazon under several scenarios of deforestation and increased CO2. The four scenarios for the year 2050 that we analyzed consider (1) radiative effects of increased CO2, (2) radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2, (3) effects of land-use changes on the regional climate and (4) radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 plus land-use climate feedbacks. Under current conditions, means for aboveground forest live biomass (AGB), soybean yield and pasture yield are 179 Mg-C ha-1, 2.7 Mg-grains ha-1 and 16.2 Mg-dry mass ha-1 yr-1, respectively. Our results indicate that expansion of agriculture in Amazonia may be a no-win scenario: in addition to reductions in carbon storage due to deforestation, total agriculture output may either increase much less than proportionally to the potential expansion in agricultural area, or even decrease, as a consequence of climate feedbacks from changes in land use. These climate feedbacks, usually ignored in previous studies, impose a reduction in precipitation that would lead agriculture expansion in Amazonia to become self-defeating: the more agriculture expands, the less productive it becomes.

  8. What We Can Learn from Amazon for Clinical Decision Support Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Sidra; Keshavjee, Karim; Karim, Arsalan; Guergachi, Aziz

    2017-01-01

    Health care continue to lag behind other industries, such as retail and financial services, in the use of decision-support-like tools. Amazon is particularly prolific in the use of advanced predictive and prescriptive analytics to assist its customers to purchase more, while increasing satisfaction, retention, repeat-purchases and loyalty. How can we do the same in health care? In this paper, we explore various elements of the Amazon website and Amazon's data science and big data practices to gather inspiration for re-designing clinical decision support in the health care sector. For each Amazon element we identified, we present one or more clinical applications to help us better understand where Amazon's.

  9. Dampak Peningkatan Kepuasan Pelanggan dalam Proses Bisnis E-Commerce pada Perusahaan Amazon.com

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Gusti Made Karmawan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Purpose of writing is to describe the impact of increased customer satisfaction in the business process of e-commerce at Amazon.com and analyzed e-commerce strategies used in the company.The Benefits are to get an overview of the strategies in the Amazon.com for improving customer satisfaction and the impact of increased satisfaction. The method of writing is conducting reviews of existing sources to gain an overview strategy and business processes e-commerce at Amazon.com. The paper results are gaining knowledge of the number of visitors and Sales that accurred at Amazon.com. The Conclusions is about the impact of increasing customer Satisfaction in the business process e-commerce in the Amazone.com.

  10. An explicit GIS-based river basin framework for aquatic ecosystem conservation in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venticinque, Eduardo; Forsberg, Bruce; Barthem, Ronaldo; Petry, Paulo; Hess, Laura; Mercado, Armando; Cañas, Carlos; Montoya, Mariana; Durigan, Carlos; Goulding, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Despite large-scale infrastructure development, deforestation, mining and petroleum exploration in the Amazon Basin, relatively little attention has been paid to the management scale required for the protection of wetlands, fisheries and other aspects of aquatic ecosystems. This is due, in part, to the enormous size, multinational composition and interconnected nature of the Amazon River system, as well as to the absence of an adequate spatial model for integrating data across the entire Amazon Basin. In this data article we present a spatially uniform multi-scale GIS framework that was developed especially for the analysis, management and monitoring of various aspects of aquatic systems in the Amazon Basin. The Amazon GIS-Based River Basin Framework is accessible as an ESRI geodatabase at doi:10.5063/F1BG2KX8.

  11. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  12. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  13. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  14. New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

    2014-12-01

    Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders

  15. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  16. Climatic variability between SST and river discharge at Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, M. E.; Silva, E. R. L.

    2012-04-01

    Climatic variability, related both to precipitation and river discharge, has been associated to ocean variability. Authors commonly relate Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variation to South America (SA) precipitation. Zonal displacement of Walker cell, with intensified subsidence over northern portion of SA, Subtropical Jet strengthening/weakening over extratropical latitudes of SA are, respectively, dynamical reasons scientifically accepted for increasing and depletion of precipitation at the respective areas. Many studies point out the influence of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in relation to precipitation/river discharge variability over northeast of Brazil. Aliseos variability at tropical Atlantic is also a physic process that contributes to explain precipitation and river flow variability over SA, mainly over the north portion. In this study, we aim to investigate the temporal correlation between SST, mainly from Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and rivers discharge at the Amazon region. Ji-Parana, Madeira and Tapajós river discharge in monthly and annual scale, between 1968 and 2008, were the time series selected to reach the purpose. Time series for river discharge were obtained from Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA, in Portuguese) and, SST data were obtained from CDC/NOAA. Before linear correlation computations between river discharge and SST have been made, seasonal cycle and linear tendency were removed from all original time series. Areas better correlated to river discharge at Amazon region show oceanic patterns apparently associated to PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and ENSO (El Niño-South Oscillation) variability, with absolute values greater than 0.3 and reaching 0.5 or 0.6. The spatial pattern observed at Pacific basin is similar to that showed by the first mode of PCA (Principal Component Analysis), such seen in many studies (the "horse shoe" pattern). In general, negative correlation values appear far more to the west of Pacific basin

  17. Predicting biomass of hyperdiverse and structurally complex Central Amazon forests - a virtual approach using extensive field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnabosco Marra, D.; Higuchi, N.; Trumbore, S. E.; Ribeiro, G. H. P. M.; dos Santos, J.; Carneiro, V. M. C.; Lima, A. J. N.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negrón-Juárez, R. I.; Holzwarth, F.; Reu, B.; Wirth, C.

    2015-09-01

    Old-growth forests are subject to substantial changes in structure and species composition due to the intensification of human activities, gradual climate change and extreme weather events. Trees store ca. 90 % of the total AGB above-ground biomass in tropical forests and AGB estimation models are crucial for forest management and conservation. In the Central Amazon, predicting AGB at large spatial-scales is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity of successional stages, high tree species diversity and inherent variations in allometry and architecture. We parameterized generic AGB estimation models applicable across species and a wide range of structural and compositional variation related to species sorting into height layers as well as frequent natural disturbances. We used 727 trees from 101 genera and at least 135 species harvested in a contiguous forest near Manaus, Brazil. Sampling from this dataset we assembled six scenarios designed to span existing gradients in floristic composition and size distribution in order to select models that best predict AGB at the landscape-level across successional gradients. We found that good individual tree model fits do not necessarily translate into good predictions of AGB at the landscape level. When predicting AGB (dry mass) over scenarios using our different models and an available pantropical model, we observed systematic biases ranging from -31 % (pantropical) to +39 %, with RMSE root-mean-square error values of up to 130 Mg ha-1 (pantropical). Our first and second best models had both low mean biases (0.8 and 3.9 %, respectively) and RMSE (9.4 and 18.6 Mg ha-1) when applied over scenarios. Predicting biomass correctly at the landscape-level in complex tropical forests, especially allowing good performance at the margins of data availability for model parametrization, requires the inclusion of predictors related to species architecture. The model of interest should comprise the floristic composition and size

  18. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  19. An extensive reef system at the Amazon River mouth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, Rodrigo L.; Amado-Filho, Gilberto M.; Moraes, Fernando C.; Brasileiro, Poliana S.; Salomon, Paulo S.; Mahiques, Michel M.; Bastos, Alex C.; Almeida, Marcelo G.; Silva, Jomar M.; Araujo, Beatriz F.; Brito, Frederico P.; Rangel, Thiago P.; Oliveira, Braulio C. V.; Bahia, Ricardo G.; Paranhos, Rodolfo P.; Dias, Rodolfo J. S.; Siegle, Eduardo; Figueiredo, Alberto G.; Pereira, Renato C.; Leal, Camille V.; Hajdu, Eduardo; Asp, Nils E.; Gregoracci, Gustavo B.; Neumann-Leitão, Sigrid; Yager, Patricia L.; Francini-Filho, Ronaldo B.; Fróes, Adriana; Campeão, Mariana; Silva, Bruno S.; Moreira, Ana P. B.; Oliveira, Louisi; Soares, Ana C.; Araujo, Lais; Oliveira, Nara L.; Teixeira, João B.; Valle, Rogerio A. B.; Thompson, Cristiane C.; Rezende, Carlos E.; Thompson, Fabiano L.

    2016-01-01

    Large rivers create major gaps in reef distribution along tropical shelves. The Amazon River represents 20% of the global riverine discharge to the ocean, generating up to a 1.3 × 106–km2 plume, and extensive muddy bottoms in the equatorial margin of South America. As a result, a wide area of the tropical North Atlantic is heavily affected in terms of salinity, pH, light penetration, and sedimentation. Such unfavorable conditions were thought to imprint a major gap in Western Atlantic reefs. We present an extensive carbonate system off the Amazon mouth, underneath the river plume. Significant carbonate sedimentation occurred during lowstand sea level, and still occurs in the outer shelf, resulting in complex hard-bottom topography. A permanent near-bottom wedge of ocean water, together with the seasonal nature of the plume’s eastward retroflection, conditions the existence of this extensive (~9500 km2) hard-bottom mosaic. The Amazon reefs transition from accretive to erosional structures and encompass extensive rhodolith beds. Carbonate structures function as a connectivity corridor for wide depth–ranging reef-associated species, being heavily colonized by large sponges and other structure-forming filter feeders that dwell under low light and high levels of particulates. The oxycline between the plume and subplume is associated with chemoautotrophic and anaerobic microbial metabolisms. The system described here provides several insights about the responses of tropical reefs to suboptimal and marginal reef-building conditions, which are accelerating worldwide due to global changes. PMID:27152336

  20. Delayed fertility transition among indigenous women in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jason; Bilsborrow, Richard; Gray, Clark

    2015-03-01

    Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the challenges women there face in limiting fertility would be useful. Samples of women of reproductive age from five indigenous ethnic groups in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon were surveyed in 2001 and 2012. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses examined married women's desire for another child at both times and modern contraceptive use in 2012, as well as determinants of a change in women's desire to have more children and of the number of children born during the study period. In 2001, 48% of married women desired another child, 2% used a modern contraceptive and 50% had an unmet need for limiting; in 2012, the proportions were 40%, 19% and 47%, respectively. The total fertility rate was 7.9 births per woman in 2001 and 7.0 births per woman in 2012. Characteristics associated with wanting another child in 2001 and 2012 included parity (odds ratios, 0.6 and 0.4, respectively) and experience of a child death (2.0 each); characteristics associated with contraceptive use in 2012 included desire for another child, experience of a child death and presence of a community health worker (0.3-0.5). Number of children born was positively associated, and the square of the term negatively associated, with no longer wanting more children in 2012 among women who wanted more in 2001 (2.1 and 0.9, respectively). Indigenous women in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon appear to be making the transition to lower fertility. Insufficient access to credible information about the safety and efficacy of modern contraceptives, however, may slow the transition.

  1. Consistency of vegetation index seasonality across the Amazon rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Moura, Yhasmin Mendes; Wagner, Fabien; Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Wang, Yujie; Chave, Jérôme; Mõttus, Matti; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio

    2016-10-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) calculated from remotely sensed reflectance are widely used tools for characterizing the extent and status of vegetated areas. Recently, however, their capability to monitor the Amazon forest phenology has been intensely scrutinized. In this study, we analyze the consistency of VIs seasonal patterns obtained from two MODIS products: the Collection 5 BRDF product (MCD43) and the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC). The spatio-temporal patterns of the VIs were also compared with field measured leaf litterfall, gross ecosystem productivity and active microwave data. Our results show that significant seasonal patterns are observed in all VIs after the removal of view-illumination effects and cloud contamination. However, we demonstrate inconsistencies in the characteristics of seasonal patterns between different VIs and MODIS products. We demonstrate that differences in the original reflectance band values form a major source of discrepancy between MODIS VI products. The MAIAC atmospheric correction algorithm significantly reduces noise signals in the red and blue bands. Another important source of discrepancy is caused by differences in the availability of clear-sky data, as the MAIAC product allows increased availability of valid pixels in the equatorial Amazon. Finally, differences in VIs seasonal patterns were also caused by MODIS collection 5 calibration degradation. The correlation of remote sensing and field data also varied spatially, leading to different temporal offsets between VIs, active microwave and field measured data. We conclude that recent improvements in the MAIAC product have led to changes in the characteristics of spatio-temporal patterns of VIs seasonality across the Amazon forest, when compared to the MCD43 product. Nevertheless, despite improved quality and reduced uncertainties in the MAIAC product, a robust biophysical interpretation of VIs seasonality is still missing.

  2. Distribution of Aboveground Live Biomass in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saatchi, S. S.; Houghton, R. A.; DosSantos Alvala, R. C.; Soares, J. V.; Yu, Y.

    2007-01-01

    The amount and spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Amazon basin is a major source of uncertainty in estimating the flux of carbon released from land-cover and land-use change. Direct measurements of aboveground live biomass (AGLB) are limited to small areas of forest inventory plots and site-specific allometric equations that cannot be readily generalized for the entire basin. Furthermore, there is no spaceborne remote sensing instrument that can measure tropical forest biomass directly. To determine the spatial distribution of forest biomass of the Amazon basin, we report a method based on remote sensing metrics representing various forest structural parameters and environmental variables, and more than 500 plot measurements of forest biomass distributed over the basin. A decision tree approach was used to develop the spatial distribution of AGLB for seven distinct biomass classes of lowland old-growth forests with more than 80% accuracy. AGLB for other vegetation types, such as the woody and herbaceous savanna and secondary forests, was directly estimated with a regression based on satellite data. Results show that AGLB is highest in Central Amazonia and in regions to the east and north, including the Guyanas. Biomass is generally above 300Mgha(sup 1) here except in areas of intense logging or open floodplains. In Western Amazonia, from the lowlands of Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia to the Andean mountains, biomass ranges from 150 to 300Mgha(sup 1). Most transitional and seasonal forests at the southern and northwestern edges of the basin have biomass ranging from 100 to 200Mgha(sup 1). The AGLB distribution has a significant correlation with the length of the dry season. We estimate that the total carbon in forest biomass of the Amazon basin, including the dead and below ground biomass, is 86 PgC with +/- 20% uncertainty.

  3. On the sources of hydrological prediction uncertainty in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, R. C. D.; Collischonn, W.; Bonnet, M. P.; de Gonçalves, L. G. G.

    2012-09-01

    Recent extreme events in the Amazon River basin and the vulnerability of local population motivate the development of hydrological forecast systems using process based models for this region. In this direction, the knowledge of the source of errors in hydrological forecast systems may guide the choice on improving model structure, model forcings or developing data assimilation systems for estimation of initial model states. We evaluate the relative importance of hydrologic initial conditions and model meteorological forcings errors (precipitation) as sources of stream flow forecast uncertainty in the Amazon River basin. We used a hindcast approach that compares Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and a reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (reverse-ESP). Simulations were performed using the physically-based and distributed hydrological model MGB-IPH, comprising surface energy and water balance, soil water, river and floodplain hydrodynamics processes. The model was forced using TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates. Results show that uncertainty on initial conditions plays an important role for discharge predictability, even for large lead times (∼1 to 3 months) on main Amazonian Rivers. Initial conditions of surface waters state variables are the major source of hydrological forecast uncertainty, mainly in rivers with low slope and large floodplains. Initial conditions of groundwater state variables are important, mostly during low flow period and in the southeast part of the Amazon where lithology and the strong rainfall seasonality with a marked dry season may be the explaining factors. Analyses indicate that hydrological forecasts based on a hydrological model forced with historical meteorological data and optimal initial conditions may be feasible. Also, development of data assimilation methods is encouraged for this region.

  4. The Amazon River reversal explained by tectonic and surface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacek, V.

    2014-12-01

    The drainage pattern in Amazonia was expressively modified during the mountain building of central and northern Andes. In Early Miocene, the fluvial systems in western Amazonia flowed to the foreland basins and northward to the Caribbean. By Late Miocene the drainage reversal occurred and formed the transcontinental Amazon River, connecting the Andes and the equatorial Atlantic margin. This event is recorded in the stratigraphic evolution of the Foz do Amazonas Basin by the onset of Andean-derived sedimentation. Additionally, an abrupt increase in sedimentation rate after the reversal occurred in the Foz do Amazonas Basin. Based on three-dimensional numerical models that couple surface processes, flexural isostasy and crustal thickening due to orogeny, I concluded that the Miocene drainage reversal can be explained by the flexural and surface processes response to the Andes formation with no need to invoke dynamic topography induced by mantle convection, as previously proposed. I observed that the instant of drainage reversal is directly linked to the rate of crustal thickening in the orogeny, the rate of erosion and, mainly, the efficiency of sediment transport. Moreover, the numerical experiments were able to predict the increase in sedimentation rate in the Amazon fan after the drainage reversal of the Amazon River as observed in the Late Miocene-Pliocene sedimentary record. However, the present numerical model fails to fully reproduce the evolution of the Pebas system, a megawetland in western Amazonia that preceded the drainage reversal. Therefore, further investigation is necessary to evaluate the mechanisms that generated and sustained the Pebas system.

  5. Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036

  6. Bacterial Biogeography across the Amazon River-Ocean Continuum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doherty, Mary; Yager, Patricia L.; Moran, Mary Ann; Coles, Victoria J.; Fortunato, Caroline S.; Krusche, Alex V.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Payet, Jérôme P.; Richey, Jeffrey E.; Satinsky, Brandon M.; Sawakuchi, Henrique O.; Ward, Nicholas D.; Crump, Byron C.

    2017-05-23

    Spatial and temporal patterns in microbial biodiversity across the Amazon river-ocean continuum were investigated along ~675 km of the lower Amazon River mainstem, in the Tapajos River tributary, and in the plume and coastal ocean during low and high river discharge using amplicon sequencing of 16S rRNA genes in whole water and size-fractionated samples (0.2-2.0 μm and >2.0 μm). River communities varied among tributaries, but mainstem communities were spatially homogeneous and tracked seasonal changes in river discharge and co-varying factors. Co-occurrence network analysis identified strongly interconnected river assemblages during high (May) and low (December) discharge periods, and weakly interconnected transitional assemblages in September, suggesting that this system supports two seasonal microbial communities linked to river discharge. In contrast, plume communities showed little seasonal differences and instead varied spatially tracking salinity. However, salinity explained only a small fraction of community variability, and plume communities in blooms of diatom-diazotroph assemblages were strikingly different than those in other high salinity plume samples. This suggests that while salinity physically structures plumes through buoyancy and mixing, the composition of plume-specific communities is controlled by other factors including nutrients, phytoplankton community composition, and dissolved organic matter chemistry. Co-occurrence networks identified interconnected assemblages associated with the highly productive low salinity nearshore region, diatom-diazotroph blooms, and the plume edge region, and weakly interconnected assemblages in high salinity regions. This suggests that the plume supports a transitional community influenced by immigration of ocean bacteria from the plume edge, and by species sorting as these communities adapt to local environmental conditions. Few studies have explored patterns of microbial diversity in tropical rivers and

  7. Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Bruno R; Sales, Lilian P; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

  8. Roads Investments, Spatial Intensification and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Walker, Robert; Aldrich, Steven; Caldas, Marcellus; Reis, Eustaquio; Perz, Stephen; Bohrer, Claudio; Arima, Eugenio; Laurance, William; hide

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.

  9. Amazon S3 for Science Grids: a Viable Solution?

    OpenAIRE

    Palankar, Mayur; Iamnitchi, Adriana; Ripeanu, Matei; Garfinkel, Simson

    2008-01-01

    International Workshop on Data-Aware Distributed Computing (DADC'08), June 23-27, 2008, Boston, MA Refereed Conference Paper Amazon.com has introduced the Simple Storage Service (S3), a commodity-priced storage utility. S3 aims to provide storage as a low-cost, highly available service, with a simple 'pay-as-you-go' charging model. This article makes three contributions. First, we evaluate S3's ability to provide storage support to large-scale science projects from a cost, a...

  10. 运动奖:木雕Amazon Kindle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    入围理由:当然这玩意不能真正的翻页,不过他比真正Kindle2高级的是,可以当作柴烧。Amazon Kindle是Amazone出品的一款电子阅读器。Google之。而图中看到的这个则是eBay用户stylograph制作的工艺品。呃,当然这玩意不能真正的翻页,不过他比真正Kindle2高级的是,可以当作柴烧。

  11. Creating A Galactic Plane Atlas With Amazon Web Services

    CERN Document Server

    Berriman, G Bruce; Good, John; Juve, Gideon; Kinney, Jamie; Merrihew, Ann; Rynge, Mats

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes by example how astronomers can use cloud-computing resources offered by Amazon Web Services (AWS) to create new datasets at scale. We have created from existing surveys an atlas of the Galactic Plane at 16 wavelengths from 1 {\\mu}m to 24 {\\mu}m with pixels co-registered at spatial sampling of 1 arcsec. We explain how open source tools support management and operation of a virtual cluster on AWS platforms to process data at scale, and describe the technical issues that users will need to consider, such as optimization of resources, resource costs, and management of virtual machine instances.

  12. Roads Investments, Spatial Intensification and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Walker, Robert; Aldrich, Steven; Caldas, Marcellus; Reis, Eustaquio; Perz, Stephen; Bohrer, Claudio; Arima, Eugenio; Laurance, William; Kibry, Kathryn

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.

  13. PALEOCLIMATE: The Amazon Reveals Its Secrets--Partly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, J L

    2000-12-22

    The role of the tropics in global climate change during glacial cycles is hotly debated in paleoclimate cycles today. Records from South America have not provided a clear picture of tropical climate change. In his Perspective, Betancourt highlights the study by Maslin and Burns, who have deduced the outflow of the Amazon over the past 14,000 years. This may serve as a proxy that integrates hydrology over the entire South American tropics, although the record must be interpreted cautiously because factors other than rainfall may contribute to the variability in outflow.

  14. Observations about chemical composition of aerosols in the Brazilian Amazon region - Case study: Biomass burning in the subequatorial Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gioda, A.; Monteiro, I. L.; Almeida, A. C.; Hacon, S. S.; Dallacort, R.; Ignotti, E.; Godoy, J. M.; Loureiro, A. L.; Morais, F.; Artaxo, P.

    2012-04-01

    The study was carried out in two cities in the Brazilian Amazon region, Tangará da Serra (14 ° 37'10 "S, 57 ° 29'09" W, 427 m asl), located in a transition area between the Amazon biome and the Cerrado and has the characteristics of urban area in Amazon region; and Alta Floresta (9 ° 52 '32 "S, 56 ° 5' 10" W, 283 m asl) situated in the extreme north of the state of Mato Grosso (MT), both in the subequatorial Amazon region. Tangara da Serra has the largest production of sugar cane in the subequatorial Amazon region. They are located 800 km from each other. These two regions are inserted in a region with typical cycles of drought and rain that alter air pollution levels, and lies in the dispersion path of the pollution plume resulting from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon and pollution emanating from neighboring countries. Both cities have wet tropical climate with two well defined seasons: rainy summer (November to May) and dry winter (June to October). During the dry winter, biomass burnings are frequent in these regions. In 2008, the Department of the Environment has banned fires in the period from July 15 to September 15 throughout the State. In this study chemical characterization was performed for approximately 100 aerosol samples collected in each site during 2008. Fine and coarse aerosol samples collected in SFUs were analyzed by ion chromatography for determination of cations (Na+, K+, NH3+, Ca2+ and Mg2+), anions (SO42-, Cl- and NO3-) and organic acids (acetate and formiate) and also measures of black carbon (BC) (Aethalometer). The results showed that for both sites the average concentrations were quite similar for PM2.5 (16 µg/m3), PM10 (11 and 13 µg/m3) and black carbon (1.4 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 1.6 µg/m3 for PM10). Sulfate was the predominant species in fine (45%) and coarse (26%) particles in both sites. The sulfate concentrations ranged from 0.01-1.92 µg/m3 in PM2.5 and 0.01-1.66 µg/m3 in PM10 in Tangará da Serra and 0.01-2.93 µg/m3 in PM2

  15. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  16. Plasmodium vivax Landscape in Brazil: Scenario and Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Siqueira, Andre M.; Mesones-Lapouble, Oscar; Marchesini, Paola; Sampaio, Vanderson Souza; Brasil, Patricia; Tauil, Pedro L; Fontes, Cor Jesus; COSTA, Fabio T. M.; Daniel-Ribeiro, Cláudio Tadeu; Lacerda, Marcus V. G.; Damasceno, Camila P.; Santelli, Ana Carolina S.

    2016-01-01

    Brazil is the largest country of Latin America, with a considerable portion of its territoritory within the malaria-endemic Amazon region in the North. Furthermore, a considerable portion of its territory is located within the Amazon region in the north. As a result, Brazil has reported half of the total malaria cases in the Americas in the last four decades. Recent progress in malaria control has been accompanied by an increasing proportion of Plasmodium vivax, underscoring a need for a bett...

  17. Living Rivers: Importance of Andes-Amazon Connectivity and Consequences of Hydropower Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, E.

    2016-12-01

    The inherent dynamism of rivers along elevational and longitudinal gradients underpins freshwater biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services in the Andean-Amazon. While this region covers only a small part of the entire Amazon Basin, its influences on downstream ecology, biogeochemistry, and human wellbeing are disproportionate with its relative small size. Seasonal flow pulses from Andean rivers maintain habitat, signal migratory fishes, and export sediment, nutrients, and organic matter to distant ecosystems—like lowland Amazonia and the Atlantic coast of Brazil. Rivers are key transportation routes, and freshwater fisheries are a primary protein source for the >30 million people that inhabit the Amazon Basin. Numerous cultural traditions depend on free-flowing Andean rivers; examples include Kukama beliefs in the underwater cities of the Marañon River, where people who have drowned in rivers whose bodies are not recovered go to live, or the pre-dawn bathing rituals of the Peruvian Shawi, who gain energy and connect with ancestors in cold, fast-flowing Andean waters. Transformations in the Andean-Amazon landscape—in particular from dams—threaten to compromise flows critical for human and ecosystem wellbeing. Presently, at least 250 hydropower dams are in operation, under construction, or proposed for Andean-Amazon rivers. This presentation will discuss regional trends in hydropower development, quantify effects of existing and proposed dams on Andean-Amazon connectivity, and examine the social and cultural importance of free-flowing Andean-Amazon rivers.

  18. A Quantified Reconstruction of Amazon River Discharge for the Last 40 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettwein, V.; Maslin, M.; Burns, S.; Leng, M.; Weyhenmeyer, C.

    2003-04-01

    The glacial moisture history of the Amazon Basin is comparatively poorly known. Previous estimates have been inferred from highly localised and qualitative indicators of effective moisture, and debate exists as to whether the glacial Amazon Basin was humid or dry. Reconstructing glacial Amazon aridity is essential for three main reasons: 1) Aridity is a key physiological control on the distribution of vegetation and therefore provides a means of testing the Pleistocene tropical rainforest refuge hypothesis; 2) Amazonian wetlands represent a major source of atmospheric methane and may exert a primary control on the ice core methane records; 3) the Amazon Basin is a major source of tropical atmospheric water vapour, another important greenhouse gas. Here we present unequivocal evidence to suggest widespread aridity within the Amazon Basin during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and also the Younger Dryas (YD). We have used δ18O of planktonic foraminifera from ODP Site 942 on the Amazon Fan to quantify Amazon River discharge for the last 40 kyr, employing an age model constructed around 35 14C AMS dates. Our calculations suggest outflow to have been c. 70% relative to modern during the LGM (i.e. c. 30% reduced), and c. 60% relative to modern during the YD. Sedimentation rates are relatively more elevated during the YD with two distinct peaks around 11200 and 13500 Cal yr BP. Centennial and millennial-scale variability in the data are most likely climate-driven.

  19. Merging plot and Landsata data to estimate the frequency distribution of Central Amazon mortality event size for landscape-scale ecosystem simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2012-12-01

    Mitigation strategies and estimates of land use change emissions assume initial states of landscapes that respond to prescribed scenarios. The Amazon basin is a target for both mitigation (e.g. maintenance of old-growth forest) and land use change (e.g. agriculture), but the current states of its old-growth and secondary forest landscapes are uncertain with respect to carbon cycling. Contributing to this uncertainty in old-growth forest ecosystems is a mosaic of patches in different successional stages, with the areal fraction of any particular stage relatively constant over large temporal and spatial scales. Old-growth mosaics are generally created through ongoing effects of tree mortality, with the Central Amazon mosaic generated primarily by wind mortality. Unfortunately, estimation of generalizable frequency distributions of mortality event size has been hindered by limited spatial and temporal scales of observations. To overcome these limitations we merge field and remotely sensed tree mortality data and fit the top two candidate distributions (power law and exponential) to these data to determine the most appropriate statistical mortality model for use in landscape-scale ecosystem simulations. Our results show that the power law model better represents the distribution of mortality event size than the exponential model. We also use an individual-tree-based forest stand model to simulate a 100 ha landscape using the best fit of each candidate distribution to demonstrate the effects of different mortality regimes on above ground biomass in the Central Amazon forest mosaic. We conclude that the correct mortality distribution model is critical for robust simulation of patch succession dynamics and above ground biomass.

  20. Riverside Population in Amazon: Culture, Environment and Construction Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Célia Regina Moretti Meirelles

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article´s objective is to study the construction techniques of the riverside dwellers in the Amazon rainforest. The studied communities are located in the banks of the Solimões River, and suffer with the constant floods and physical phenomena related to the region environment. An ecosystem of thunderous natural forces, which makes it harder the importation of approaches from other regions as alternatives to the Amazon rainforest. As a method of research and understanding of the problematics, an assessment of the riverside communities in the city of Manacapuru and in two rural communities was carried out, surveying the cultural, social, and environmental characteristics of each community, and surveying the local constructive characteristics, materials and vernacular techniques. In the conclusion, we observed that: the relevance of a joint action to understand the wood and the housing durability, expanding the life cycle of the river buildings and reducing the impact on the rainforest. Regarding thermic comfort, it is important to redeem the bioclimatic techniques of crossed ventilation and to highlight the relevancy of sustainable techniques that work with local materials, such as natural fibers

  1. Water stress detection in the Amazon using radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Paget, Aaron; Oliveira, Rafael S.; Bittencourt, Paulo R. L.; Barros, Fernanda de V.; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-07-01

    The Amazon rainforest plays an important role in the global water and carbon cycle, and though it is predicted to continue drying in the future, the effect of drought remains uncertain. Developments in remote sensing missions now facilitate large-scale observations. The RapidScat scatterometer (Ku band) mounted on the International Space Station observes the Earth in a non-Sun-synchronous orbit, which allows for studying changes in the diurnal cycle of radar backscatter over the Amazon. Diurnal cycles in backscatter are significantly affected by the state of the canopy, especially during periods of increased water stress. We use RapidScat backscatter time series and water deficit measurements from dendrometers in 20 trees during a 9 month period to relate variations in backscatter to increased tree water deficit. Morning radar bacskcatter dropped significantly with increased tree water deficit measured with dendrometers. This provides unique observational evidence that demonstrates the sensitivity of radar backscatter to vegetation water stress, highlighting the potential of drought detection and monitoring using radar.

  2. [Hansen's disease, social conditions, and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Diego Ricardo Xavier; Ignotti, Eliane; Souza-Santos, Reinaldo; Hacon, Sandra de Souza

    2010-04-01

    To analyze the association between social and environmental indicators and the Hansen's disease new case detection rate (HNCDR) in the Brazilian Amazon. This ecological study was based on the new cases of Hansen's disease reported to the Brazilian Disease Surveillance System SINAN in 2006. Analyses were performed considering 105 micro-regions formed by adjacent municipalities with economic and social similarities. HNCDRs per 10 000 people were calculated. Independent variables were total area deforested (km(2)) in each micro-region until 2006; proportion of people living in households with rudimentary septic tanks; proportion of people living in households with water supply from wells; and human development index (HDI) in 2000. Local empirical Bayes smoothing was applied to HNCDR. Analyses were carried out to determined correlations and differences between means (analysis of variance) for a significance level of 5%. The Kernel technique was used to investigate the geographic distribution of events of interest for all the study indicators. A positive correlation was observed between HNCDR and total deforested area (r = 0.50; P Hansen's disease new case detection rate, which reflects the magnitude of disease, is associated with social conditions and land settlement practices in the Brazilian Amazon.

  3. Simulating hydrologic and hydraulic processes throughout the Amazon River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beighley, R.E.; Eggert, K.G.; Dunne, T.; He, Y.; Gummadi, V.; Verdin, K.L.

    2009-01-01

    Presented here is a model framework based on a land surface topography that can be represented with various degrees of resolution and capable of providing representative channel/floodplain hydraulic characteristics on a daily to hourly scale. The framework integrates two models: (1) a water balance model (WBM) for the vertical fluxes and stores of water in and through the canopy and soil layers based on the conservation of mass and energy, and (2) a routing model for the horizontal routing of surface and subsurface runoff and channel and floodplain waters based on kinematic and diffusion wave methodologies. The WBM is driven by satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM_3B42) and air temperature (MOD08_M3). The model's use of an irregular computational grid is intended to facilitate parallel processing for applications to continental and global scales. Results are presented for the Amazon Basin over the period Jan 2001 through Dec 2005. The model is shown to capture annual runoff totals, annual peaks, seasonal patterns, and daily fluctuations over a range of spatial scales (>1, 000 to Amazon vary by approximately +/-5 to 10 cm, and the fractional components accounting for these changes are: root zone soil moisture (20%), subsurface water being routed laterally to channels (40%) and channel/floodplain discharge (40%). Annual variability in monthly water storage changes by +/-2.5 cm is likely due to 0D5 to 1 month variability in the arrival of significant rainfall periods throughout the basin. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

    2014-01-01

    We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

  5. Cloudiness over the Amazon rainforest: Meteorology and thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, Allison B. Marquardt; Miller, Mark A.; Trabachino, Lynne C.

    2016-07-01

    Comprehensive meteorological observations collected during GOAmazon2014/15 using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility no. 1 and assimilated observations from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are used to document the seasonal cycle of cloudiness, thermodynamics, and precipitation above the Amazon rainforest. The reversal of synoptic-scale vertical motions modulates the transition between the wet and dry seasons. Ascending moist air during the wet season originates near the surface of the Atlantic Ocean and is advected into the Amazon rainforest, where it experiences convergence and, ultimately, precipitates. The dry season is characterized by weaker winds and synoptic-scale subsidence with little or no moisture convergence accompanying moisture advection. This combination results in the drying of the midtroposphere during June through October as indicated by a decrease in liquid water path, integrated water, and the vertical profile of water vapor mixing ratio. The vertical profile of cloud fraction exhibits a relatively consistent decline in cloud fraction from the lifting condensation level (LCL) to the freezing level where a minimum is observed, unlike many other tropical regions. Coefficients of determination between the LCL and cloud fractional coverage suggest a relatively robust relationship between the LCL and cloudiness beneath 5 km during the dry season (R2 = 0.42) but a weak relationship during the wet season (0.12).

  6. Web quality control for lectures: Supercourse and Amazon.com.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Faina; LaPorte, Ronald; Lovalekar, Mita; Dodani, Sunita

    2005-12-01

    Peer review has been at the corner stone of quality control of the biomedical journals in the past 300 years. With the emergency of the Internet, new models of quality control and peer review are emerging. However, such models are poorly investigated. We would argue that the popular system of quality control used in Amazon.com offers a way to ensure continuous quality improvement in the area of research communications on the Internet. Such system is providing an interesting alternative to the traditional peer review approaches used in the biomedical journals and challenges the traditional paradigms of scientific publishing. This idea is being explored in the context of Supercourse, a library of 2,350 prevention lectures, shared for free by faculty members from over 150 countries. Supercourse is successfully utilizing quality control approaches that are similar to Amazon.com model. Clearly, the existing approaches and emerging alternatives for quality control in scientific communications needs to be assessed scientifically. Rapid explosion of internet technologies could be leveraged to produce better, more cost effective systems for quality control in the biomedical publications and across all sciences.

  7. Neogene sharks and rays from the Brazilian 'Blue Amazon'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilera, Orangel; Luz, Zoneibe; Carrillo-Briceño, Jorge D; Kocsis, László; Vennemann, Torsten W; de Toledo, Peter Mann; Nogueira, Afonso; Amorim, Kamilla Borges; Moraes-Santos, Heloísa; Polck, Marcia Reis; Ruivo, Maria de Lourdes; Linhares, Ana Paula; Monteiro-Neto, Cassiano

    2017-01-01

    The lower Miocene Pirabas Formation in the North of Brazil was deposited under influence of the proto-Amazon River and is characterized by large changes in the ecological niches from the early Miocene onwards. To evaluate these ecological changes, the elasmobranch fauna of the fully marine, carbonate-rich beds was investigated. A diverse fauna with 24 taxa of sharks and rays was identified with the dominant groups being carcharhiniforms and myliobatiforms. This faunal composition is similar to other early Miocene assemblages from the proto-Carribbean bioprovince. However, the Pirabas Formation has unique features compared to the other localities; being the only Neogene fossil fish assemblage described from the Atlantic coast of Tropical Americas. Phosphate oxygen isotope composition of elasmobranch teeth served as proxies for paleotemperatures and paleoecology. The data are compatible with a predominantly tropical marine setting with recognized inshore and offshore habitats with some probable depth preferences (e.g., Aetomylaeus groups). Paleohabitat of taxa particularly found in the Neogene of the Americas (†Carcharhinus ackermannii, †Aetomylaeus cubensis) are estimated to have been principally coastal and shallow waters. Larger variation among the few analyzed modern selachians reflects a larger range for the isotopic composition of recent seawater compared to the early Miocene. This probably links to an increased influence of the Amazon River in the coastal regions during the Holocene.

  8. Promoting health and happiness in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scannavino, Caetano; Anastácio, Rui

    2007-01-01

    With the motto "Health, happiness of the body. Happiness, health of the soul", the Health & Happiness Project (PSA) works to promote integrated and sustainable community development in parts of the Brazilian Amazon. PSA grew out of local workers' personal experience in collaborating with communities and the need for sustainable actions for their future development. PSA was established as a not-for-profit organization in 1987 It started off by implementing strategies that would increase the health status of the population, which was identified as the biggest challenge, to then extend to other areas of development. Education, training and community participation were key elements of the project's actions, which included basic sanitation, reproductive health and child health, technical assistance in agricultural practices and youth empowerment through communications, among others. Once the health structure was established, the work moved on to new priorities related to education, economic production, protection of the environment and community management in the medium and long terms. The project's success has helped to institutionalize the practices and today it reaches a total of approximately 5,000 families distributed across 150 rural communities in the mid- and low-Amazon region.

  9. Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

    1994-01-01

    The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

  10. Modelling basin-wide variations in Amazon forest photosynthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercado, Lina; Lloyd, Jon; Domingues, Tomas; Fyllas, Nikolaos; Patino, Sandra; Dolman, Han; Sitch, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Given the importance of Amazon rainforest in the global carbon and hydrological cycles, there is a need to use parameterized and validated ecosystem gas exchange and vegetation models for this region in order to adequately simulate present and future carbon and water balances. Recent research has found major differences in above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), above ground biomass and tree dynamics across Amazonia. West Amazonia is more dynamic, with younger trees, higher stem growth rates and lower biomass than central and eastern Amazon (Baker et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2004; Phillips et al. 2004). A factor of three variation in above-ground net primary productivity has been estimated across Amazonia by Malhi et al. (2004). Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the observed spatial variability in ANPP (Malhi et al. 2004). First, due to the proximity to the Andes, sites from western Amazonia tend to have richer soils than central and eastern Amazon and therefore soil fertility could possibly be highly related to the high wood productivity found in western sites. Second, if GPP does not vary across the Amazon basin then different patterns of carbon allocation to respiration could also explain the observed ANPP gradient. However since plant growth depends on the interaction between photosynthesis, transport of assimilates, plant respiration, water relations and mineral nutrition, variations in plant gross photosynthesis (GPP) could also explain the observed variations in ANPP. In this study we investigate whether Amazon GPP can explain variations of observed ANPP. We use a sun and shade canopy gas exchange model that has been calibrated and evaluated at five rainforest sites (Mercado et al. 2009) to simulate gross primary productivity of 50 sites across the Amazon basin during the period 1980-2001. Such simulation differs from the ones performed with global vegetation models (Cox et al. 1998; Sitch et al. 2003) where i) single plant functional

  11. Dampak Peningkatan Kepuasan Pelanggan dalam Proses Bisnis E-Commerce pada Perusahaan Amazon.com

    OpenAIRE

    I Gusti Made Karmawan

    2014-01-01

    The Purpose of writing is to describe the impact of increased customer satisfaction in the business process of e-commerce at Amazon.com and analyzed e-commerce strategies used in the company.The Benefits are to get an overview of the strategies in the Amazon.com for improving customer satisfaction and the impact of increased satisfaction. The method of writing is conducting reviews of existing sources to gain an overview strategy and business processes e-commerce at Amazon.com. The paper resu...

  12. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nord 2009]. Figure 1 shows the relationship between mission thread scenarios and QA scenarios. Mission thread scenarios contain steps that...Execute Health Severe Immediate Observed Flash Flood "No Special Handling" Actual Assess Meteorological Severe Expected Likely Tsunami "No Special...projects.shtm#6 (2011). CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 | 49 [ Nord 2009] Nord , R.; Bergey, J.; Blanchette, S.; & Klein, M. “The Impact of Conducting ATAM

  13. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  14. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  15. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  16. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  17. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  18. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  19. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  20. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  1. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  2. The Impact of Rise of the Andes and Amazon Landscape Evolution on Diversification of Lowland terra-firme Forest Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Alexandre; Wilkinson, M. Justin

    2011-01-01

    . The youngest landsurfaces thus lie furthest from the mountains. In this scenario major drainages were also reoriented in wholesale fashion away from a northerly orientation generally towards the east and an Atlantic Ocean outlet. The advance of megafans is best seen by the location of axial rivers such as the Orinoco and Mamore which lie against the cratonic margins furthest from the Andes, at the distal ends of major megafan ramparts. More importantly, other major river courses in western-central Amazonia will have been established at progressively younger dates with distance eastward. If this landscape-sequence scenario is accurate, it parallels the progressive younging of the passerine lineages. The bird DNA data appears to confirm strongly the pervasive role of Amazonian rivers--as primary barriers separating sister lineages of birds, and thus probably as facilitaters of bird speciation. We show for the first time that a general spatio-temporal pattern of diversification for terra-firme lineages in the Amazon is associated with rivers ("younging-eastward"), and furthermore parallels a specific scenario of regional drainage evolution.

  3. Dactylogyrids (Platyhelminthes, Monogenoidea) from the gills of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) from coastal rivers of the Oriental Amazon Basin: species of Urocleidoides and Constrictoanchoratus n. gen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, K D C; Rodrigues, A R O; Cunha, J-M; Domingues, M V

    2017-05-15

    Five species of Urocleidoides (one new) and two new species of Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. are described in this study. All were collected from the gills of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) captured in six localities of coastal rivers of the north-eastern sector the State of Pará (Oriental Amazon): Urocleidoides brasiliensis Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Urocleidoides bulbophallus n. sp.; Urocleidoides cuiabai Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Urocleidoides eremitus Kritsky, Thatcher & Boeger, 1986; Urocleidoides malabaricusi Rosim, Mendoza-Franco & Luque, 2011; Constrictoanchoratus lemmyi n. gen. n. sp.; and Constrictoanchoratus ptilonophallus n. gen. n. sp. This is the first reported occurrence of the four previously described species of Urocleidoides parasitizing H. malabaricus from streams in the Oriental Amazon Basin. The analysis of voucher specimens of U. eremitus parasitizing the gills of H. malabaricus from the Upper Paraná River floodplain in the limits of States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, indicates that these specimens are members of a new species of Urocleidoides, described here as Urocleidoides paranae n. sp. Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. is proposed for the species with a male copulatory organ sclerotized, coiled, clockwise; ventral anchor with elongate superficial root, inconspicuous deep root; dorsal anchor with inconspicuous roots, and a constriction at the intersection between the shaft and the point. The host-parasite diversity scenario and host specificity of the species of Constrictoanchoratus n. gen. and Urocleidoides from the gills of H. malabaricus are also discussed in this study.

  4. Surveillance, health promotion and control of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region--Medical attention in the Brazilian Amazon Region: a proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coura, José Rodrigues; Junqueira, Angela C V

    2015-11-01

    We refer to Oswaldo Cruz's reports dating from 1913 about the necessities of a healthcare system for the Brazilian Amazon Region and about the journey of Carlos Chagas to 27 locations in this region and the measures that would need to be adopted. We discuss the risks of endemicity of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region. We recommend that epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in the Brazilian Amazon Region and Pan-Amazon region should be implemented through continuous monitoring of the human population that lives in the area, their housing, the environment and the presence of triatomines. The monitoring should be performed with periodic seroepidemiological surveys, semi-annual visits to homes by health agents and the training of malaria microscopists and healthcare technicians to identify Trypanosoma cruzi from patients' samples and T. cruzi infection rates among the triatomines caught. We recommend health promotion and control of Chagas disease through public health policies, especially through sanitary education regarding the risk factors for Chagas disease. Finally, we propose a healthcare system through base hospitals, intermediate-level units in the areas of the Brazilian Amazon Region and air transportation, considering the distances to be covered for medical care.

  5. Surveillance, health promotion and control of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region - Medical attention in the Brazilian Amazon Region: a proposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coura, José Rodrigues; Junqueira, Angela CV

    2015-01-01

    We refer to Oswaldo Cruz's reports dating from 1913 about the necessities of a healthcare system for the Brazilian Amazon Region and about the journey of Carlos Chagas to 27 locations in this region and the measures that would need to be adopted. We discuss the risks of endemicity of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region. We recommend that epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in the Brazilian Amazon Region and Pan-Amazon region should be implemented through continuous monitoring of the human population that lives in the area, their housing, the environment and the presence of triatomines. The monitoring should be performed with periodic seroepidemiological surveys, semi-annual visits to homes by health agents and the training of malaria microscopists and healthcare technicians to identify Trypanosoma cruzi from patients' samples and T. cruzi infection rates among the triatomines caught. We recommend health promotion and control of Chagas disease through public health policies, especially through sanitary education regarding the risk factors for Chagas disease. Finally, we propose a healthcare system through base hospitals, intermediate-level units in the areas of the Brazilian Amazon Region and air transportation, considering the distances to be covered for medical care. PMID:26560976

  6. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  7. Monitoring vegetation dynamics in the Amazon with RapidScat

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Paget, Aaron C.; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-04-01

    Several studies affiliated diurnal variations in radar backscatter over the Amazon [1,2] with vegetation water stress. Recent studies on tree and corn canopies [3,4] have demonstrated that during periods of low soil moisture availability, the total radar backscatter is primarily sensitive to changes in leaf water content, highlighting the potential of radar for water stress detection. The RapidScat mission (Ku-band, 13.4GHz), mounted on the International Space Station, observes the Earth in a non-sun-synchronous orbit [5]. This unique orbit allows for reconstructing diurnal cycles of radar backscatter. We hypothesize that the state of the canopy is a significant portion of the diurnal variations observed in the radar backscatter. Recent, yet inconclusive, analyses support the theory of the impact of vegetation water content on diurnal variation in RapidScat radar backscatter over the Amazon and Congo. Linking ground measurements of canopy dynamics to radar backscatter will allow further exploration of the possibilities for monitoring vegetation dynamics. Our presentation focuses of two parts. First, we reconstruct diurnal cycles of RapidScat backscatter over the Amazon, and study its variation over time. Second, we analyze the pre-dawn backscatter over time. The water content at this time of day is a measure of water stress, and might therefore be visible in the backscatter time series. References [1] Frolking, S., et al.: "Tropical forest backscatter anomaly evident in SeaWinds scatterometer morning overpass data during 2005 drought in Amazonia", Remote Sensing of Environment, 2011. [2] Jaruwatanadilok, S., and B. Stiles: "Trends and variation in Ku-band backscatter of natural targets on land observed in QuikSCAT data", IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing , 2014. [3] Steele-Dunne, S., et al.: "Using diurnal variation in backscatter to detect vegetation water stress", IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 2012. [4] van Emmerik, T., et

  8. Bacterial Biogeography across the Amazon River-Ocean Continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Mary; Yager, Patricia L; Moran, Mary Ann; Coles, Victoria J; Fortunato, Caroline S; Krusche, Alex V; Medeiros, Patricia M; Payet, Jérôme P; Richey, Jeffrey E; Satinsky, Brandon M; Sawakuchi, Henrique O; Ward, Nicholas D; Crump, Byron C

    2017-01-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns in microbial biodiversity across the Amazon river-ocean continuum were investigated along ∼675 km of the lower Amazon River mainstem, in the Tapajós River tributary, and in the plume and coastal ocean during low and high river discharge using amplicon sequencing of 16S rRNA genes in whole water and size-fractionated samples (0.2-2.0 μm and >2.0 μm). River communities varied among tributaries, but mainstem communities were spatially homogeneous and tracked seasonal changes in river discharge and co-varying factors. Co-occurrence network analysis identified strongly interconnected river assemblages during high (May) and low (December) discharge periods, and weakly interconnected transitional assemblages in September, suggesting that this system supports two seasonal microbial communities linked to river discharge. In contrast, plume communities showed little seasonal differences and instead varied spatially tracking salinity. However, salinity explained only a small fraction of community variability, and plume communities in blooms of diatom-diazotroph assemblages were strikingly different than those in other high salinity plume samples. This suggests that while salinity physically structures plumes through buoyancy and mixing, the composition of plume-specific communities is controlled by other factors including nutrients, phytoplankton community composition, and dissolved organic matter chemistry. Co-occurrence networks identified interconnected assemblages associated with the highly productive low salinity near-shore region, diatom-diazotroph blooms, and the plume edge region, and weakly interconnected assemblages in high salinity regions. This suggests that the plume supports a transitional community influenced by immigration of ocean bacteria from the plume edge, and by species sorting as these communities adapt to local environmental conditions. Few studies have explored patterns of microbial diversity in tropical rivers and

  9. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  10. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  11. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  12. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  13. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  14. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  15. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  16. From conflict to cooperation : international policies to protect the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.

    1998-01-01

    When environmental degradation in a particular country has international consequences, a dilemma arises: how to find effective policies which address the causes and take domestic sensitivities into account? This article analyzes the Brazilian Amazon, where international concern over deforestation le

  17. Flooding and Canopy Dynamics Shape the Demography of a Clonal Amazon Understorey Herb

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Matthias Schleuning; Vicky Huamán; Diethart Matthies

    2008-01-01

    .... We studied the influence of flooding and canopy gaps on the demography of the widespread clonal herb Heliconia metallica in 16 populations in the Peruvian Amazon over two wet and two dry seasons...

  18. Protected Areas' Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation-Development Interactions to Inform Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Herrera, Diego; Sandoval, Catalina

    2015-01-01

    .... For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas' forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e...

  19. Protected Areas' Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation - Development Interactions to Inform Planning: e0129460

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alexander Pfaff; Juan Robalino; Diego Herrera; Catalina Sandoval

    2015-01-01

    .... For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas' forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e...

  20. From conflict to cooperation : international policies to protect the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Kolk

    1998-01-01

    When environmental degradation in a particular country has international consequences, a dilemma arises: how to find effective policies which address the causes and take domestic sensitivities into account? This article analyzes the Brazilian Amazon, where international concern over deforestation le

  1. Lophopidae of the amazon basin with keys to new world genera and species (HOMOPTERA: FULGOROIDEA).

    OpenAIRE

    1986-01-01

    The two especies of Lophopidae found in the lowland Amazon Basin, Hesticus rufimanus, (walker) and H. sanguinifrons Muir, are redescribed and their geographical distributions given. Keys are provided to genera of New World lophopidae, and to species of Hesticus .

  2. From landless to forestless? : settlers, livelihoods and forest dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homero Diniz, F.

    2013-01-01

      Keywords: deforestation; remote sensing; mental models; stakeholders’ perceptions; agrarian reform   Over the last decades, hundreds of thousands of families have settled in projects in the Brazilian Amazon within the Agrarian Reform Program (ARP) framework, the rationale being

  3. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  4. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  5. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  6. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  7. Deforestation, Development, and Government Policy in the Brazilian Amazon: an Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Lykke E.; Eustáquio J. Reis

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a model of deforestation and economic development in the Amazon. It is based on the determinants of demand for agricultural land, i.e. on the interactions between population dynamics, urbanization and the growth of local markets, land prices, and government policies. The model is estimated using a panel data set covering 316 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon during the period 1970/85. The model is used to evaluate the effects of different policy instruments. The trade...

  8. The academic formation and the scientific production of physiotherapist researchers from Amazon region

    OpenAIRE

    Warken, Gianne de La-Rocque Barros; Freitas,Jofre Jacob da Silva; Domingues, Robson José de Souza; Kietzer, Katia Simone

    2016-01-01

    This article correlates educational data from 66 Amazonian physiotherapist researchers with their scientific production. The data show that only 24.2% are doctors, 50% had studied at the graduate level in the Amazon region, and 13% had graduate study in the physiotherapy area, in all cases outside of the Amazon region. It was found that the scientific production is concentrated in journals Qualis B. We believe that the way for the physiotherapist of the region to produce knowledge oriented to...

  9. Hallux amputation after a freshwater stingray injury in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Oliveira, Sâmella Silva de; Sachett, Jacqueline de Almeida Gonçalves; Silva, Iran Mendonça da; Ferreira, Luiz Carlos de Lima; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

    2016-01-01

    Freshwater stingray injuries are a common problem in the Brazilian Amazon, affecting mostly riverine and indigenous populations. These injuries cause severe local and regional pain, swelling and erythema, as well as complications, such as local necrosis and bacterial infection. Herein, we report a case of bacterial infection and hallux necrosis, after a freshwater stingray injury in the Brazilian Amazon, which eventually required amputation. Different antimicrobial regimens were administered at different stages of the disease; however, avoiding amputation through effective treatment was not achieved.

  10. Description of Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia) nautaensis n. sp. (Diptera: Psychodidae) from the Peruvian Amazon Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandez, Roberto; Lopez,Victor; Cardenas, Roldan; Requena, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    A new species of sand fly, which we describe as Lutzomyia (Trichophoromyia) nautaensis n. sp., was collected in the northern Peruvian Amazon Basin. In this region of Peru, cutaneous leishmaniasis is transmitted primarily by anthropophilic sand flies; however, zoophilic sand flies of the subgenus Trichophoromyia may also be incriminated in disease transmission. Detection of Leishmania spp. in Lutzomyia auraensis Mangabeira captured in the southern Peruvian Amazon indicates the potential of thi...

  11. Richardia Robineau-Desvoidy (Diptera, Tephritoidea, Richardiidae from Central Amazon, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letícia Barros de Alencar

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Richardia Robineau-Desvoidy (Diptera, Tephritoidea, Richardiidae from Central Amazon, Brazil. There are 11 species of Richardia known to Brazil. Of these, only four are known to occur in the Brazilian Amazon Region, where the diversity of Richardia is underestimated. Herein we describe and illustrate Richardia intemperata sp. nov. and Richardia parispina sp. nov. from Amazonas, Brazil. An illustrated key to males from this region is also provided.

  12. Amazon vegetation greenness as measured by satellite sensors over the last decade

    OpenAIRE

    Atkinson, P.M.; Dash, J.; Jeganathan, C.

    2011-01-01

    [1] During the last decade two major drought events, one in 2005 and another in 2010, occurred in the Amazon basin. Several studies have claimed the ability to detect the effect of these droughts on Amazon vegetation response, measured through satellite sensor vegetation indices (VIs). Such monitoring capability is important as it potentially links climate changes (increasing frequency and severity of drought), vegetation response as observed through vegetation greenness, and land-atmosphere ...

  13. Outbreak of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Peruvian Military Personnel Undertaking Training Activities in the Amazon Basin, 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Oré, Marianela; Sáenz, Eliana; Cabrera, Rufino; Sanchez, Juan F.; De Los Santos, Maxy; Lucas, Carmen M.; Núñez, Jorge; Edgel, Kimberly A.; Sopan, Justino; Fernández, Jorge; Carnero, G, Andres M.; Baldeviano, Christian; Arrasco, Juan C.; Paul C F Graf; Lescano, Andres G.

    2015-01-01

    Article Military personnel deployed to the Amazon Basin are at high risk for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). We responded to an outbreak among Peruvian Army personnel returning from short-term training in the Amazon, conducting active case detection, lesion sample collection, and risk factor assessment. The attack rate was 25% (76/303); the incubation period was 2–36 weeks (median = 8). Most cases had one lesion (66%), primarily ulcerative (49%), and in the legs (57%). Real-time ...

  14. Does the disturbance hypothesis explain the biomass increase in basin-wide Amazon forest plot data?

    OpenAIRE

    Gloor, M.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lloyd, J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Malhi, Y; Baker, T. R.; Lopez Gonzalez, G.; J. Peacock; Almeida, S; Alves de Oliveira, Atila Cristina; Alvarez, E; Amaral, Ieda; Arroyo, L.; Aymard, Gerardo; Banki, Olaf

    2009-01-01

    Positive aboveground biomass trends have been reported from old-growth forests across the Amazon basin and hypothesized to reflect a large-scale response to exterior forcing. The result could, however, be an artefact due to a sampling bias induced by the nature of forest growth dynamics. Here, we characterize statistically the disturbance process in Amazon old-growth forests as recorded in 135 forest plots of the RAINFOR network up to 2006, and other independent research programmes, and explo...

  15. Viruses Surveillance Under Different Season Scenarios of the Negro River Basin, Amazonia, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, Carmen Baur; de Abreu Corrêa, Adriana; de Jesus, Michele Silva; Luz, Sérgio Luiz Bessa; Wyn-Jones, Peter; Kay, David; Vargha, Marta; Miagostovich, Marize Pereira

    2016-03-01

    The Negro River is located in the Amazon basin, the largest hydrological catchment in the world. Its water is used for drinking, domestic activities, recreation and transportation and water quality is significantly affected by anthropogenic impacts. The goals of this study were to determine the presence and concentrations of the main viral etiological agents of acute gastroenteritis, such as group A rotavirus (RVA) and genogroup II norovirus (NoV GII), and to assess the use of human adenovirus (HAdV) and JC polyomavirus (JCPyV) as viral indicators of human faecal contamination in the aquatic environment of Manaus under different hydrological scenarios. Water samples were collected along Negro River and in small streams known as igarapés. Viruses were concentrated by an organic flocculation method and detected by quantitative PCR. From 272 samples analysed, HAdV was detected in 91.9%, followed by JCPyV (69.5%), RVA (23.9%) and NoV GII (7.4%). Viral concentrations ranged from 10(2) to 10(6) GC L(-1) and viruses were more likely to be detected during the flood season, with the exception of NoV GII, which was detected only during the dry season. Statistically significant differences on virus concentrations between dry and flood seasons were observed only for RVA. The HAdV data provides a useful complement to faecal indicator bacteria in the monitoring of aquatic environments. Overall results demonstrated that the hydrological cycle of the Negro River in the Amazon Basin affects the dynamics of viruses in aquatic environments and, consequently, the exposure of citizens to these waterborne pathogens.

  16. Carbon offsets and land use in the brazilian Amazon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Carmen Vera Diaz, M. [Boston University, Boston (United States); Schwartzman, S. [Environmental Defense, Washington DC (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Reducing tropical deforestation will be central to an effective international carbon emissions control regime. The 'compensated reduction' concept proposes a voluntary mechanism for tropical countries to receive compensation for demonstrated reductions of deforestation below a national baseline through international carbon markets. Two questions arise in examining ways to implement this concept. First, is carbon economically competitive with current land uses in tropical regions? If so, what effects on carbon markets would carbon crediting for reduced deforestation be liable to produce, that is, what volume of carbon would likely be available for sale? This paper addresses these two issues in the case of the largest remaining tropical forest region in the world, the Brazilian Amazon.

  17. Conservation efforts and malaria in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Micah B; Olson, Sarah H; Vittor, Amy Y; Barcellos, Christovam; Patz, Jonathan A; Pan, William

    2014-04-01

    We respond to Valle and Clark, who assert that "conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon," because the relationship between forest cover and malaria incidence was stronger than the effect of the deforestation rate. We contend that their conclusion is flawed because of limitations in their methodology that we discuss in detail. Most important are the exclusion of one-half the original data without a discussion of selection bias, the lack of model adjustment for either population growth or migration, and the crude classifications of land cover and protected areas that lead to aggregation bias. Of greater significance, we stress the need for caution in the interpretation of data that could have profound effects on regional land use decisions.

  18. Amazon acai: chemistry and biological activities: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Klenicy Kazumy de Lima; Pereira, Luiz Felipe Ravazi; Lamarão, Carlos Victor; Lima, Emerson Silva; da Veiga-Junior, Valdir Florêncio

    2015-07-15

    Acai (acai or assai) is one of the Amazon's most popular functional foods and widely used in the world. There are many benefits to its alleged use in the growing market for nutraceuticals. The acai extracts have a range of polyphenolic components with antioxidant properties, some of those present in greater quantity are orientin, isoorientin and vanillic acid, as well as anthocyanins cyanidin-3-glucoside and cyanidin-3-rutinoside. The presence of these substances is linked mainly to the antioxidant, anti- inflammatory, anti-proliferative and cardioprotective activities. Importantly, there are two main species of the Euterpe genus which produce acai. There are several differences between them but they are still quite unknown, from literature to producers and consumers. In this review are highlighted the chemical composition, botanical aspects, pharmacological, marketing and nutrition of these species based on studies published in the last five years in order to unify the current knowledge and dissimilarities between them.

  19. Conservation Efforts and Malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Micah B.; Olson, Sarah H.; Vittor, Amy Y.; Barcellos, Christovam; Patz, Jonathan A.; Pan, William

    2014-01-01

    We respond to Valle and Clark,1 who assert that “conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon,” because the relationship between forest cover and malaria incidence was stronger than the effect of the deforestation rate.1 We contend that their conclusion is flawed because of limitations in their methodology that we discuss in detail. Most important are the exclusion of one-half the original data without a discussion of selection bias, the lack of model adjustment for either population growth or migration, and the crude classifications of land cover and protected areas that lead to aggregation bias.1 Of greater significance, we stress the need for caution in the interpretation of data that could have profound effects on regional land use decisions. PMID:24277787

  20. Smoke Invigoration Versus Inhibition of Clouds over the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koren, Ilan; Martins, J. Vanderlei; Lorraine, A. Remer; Afargan, Hila

    2008-01-01

    The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is one of the most important and least understood aspects of human-induced climate change. Small changes in the amount of cloud coverage can produce a climate forcing equivalent in magnitude and opposite in sign to that caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and changes in cloud height can shift the effect of clouds from cooling to warming. Focusing on the Amazon, we show a smooth transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds: the microphysical and the radiative. We show how a feedback between the optical properties of aerosols and the cloud fraction can modify the aerosol forcing, changing the total radiative energy and redistributing it over the atmospheric column.

  1. Pseudo-dyadic "interaction" on Amazon's Mechanical Turk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerville, Amy; Chartier, Christopher R

    2013-03-01

    Psychological researchers have begun to utilize Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) marketplace as a participant pool. Although past work has established that MTurk is well suited to examining individual behavior, pseudo-dyadic interactions, in which participants falsely believe they are interacting with a partner, are a key element of social and cognitive psychology. The ability to conduct such interdependent research on MTurk would increase the utility of this online population for a broad range of psychologists. The present research therefore attempts to qualitatively replicate well-established pseudo-dyadic tasks on MTurk in order to establish the utility of this platform as a tool for researchers. We find that participants do behave as if a partner is real, even when doing so incurs a financial cost, and that they are sensitive to subtle information about the partner in a minimal-groups paradigm, supporting the use of MTurk for pseudo-dyadic research.

  2. Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

    2011-12-01

    Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient

  3. Ideal sweetness of mixed juices from Amazon fruits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela De Grandi Castro Freitas

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Ready-to-drink fruit juices represent a large share of the market and are an important target for product development. The mixture of fruits can bring about improvements to nutritional and sensory aspects of these beverages while making used of the wide variety of exotic fruits from the Amazon region. Therefore, it is necessary to select mixed fruits and determine their ideal sweetness according to consumer acceptance. Consumers in the city of Belém (Brazil evaluated five different concentrations of sugar using the just-about-right scale in two blends selected by preference ranking. For the cupuassu-acerola-açai blend, the optimum concentration of sugar was 9.5 g/100 mL, and for the soursop-camucamu-yellow mombin blend, it was 10.7 g/100 mL.

  4. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  5. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  6. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemp, Delphine Clara; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Hirota, Marina; Montade, Vincent; Sampaio, Gilvan; Staal, Arie; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Rammig, Anja

    2017-03-01

    Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

  7. Exploring the Geomorphology of the Amazon's Planalto with Imaging Radar: Understanding the Origins of the Modern Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, K. C.; Campbell, K.; Islam, R.; Azarderakhsh, M.; Cracraft, J.

    2013-12-01

    Amazonia is Earth's most iconic center of biological diversity and endemism and, owing to its contributions to global systems ecology, is arguably Earth's most important terrestrial biome . Amazonia includes a vast landscape of mostly lowland rainforest found in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela. It harbors the world's highest species diversity, the largest fresh-water ecosystem in the world, and contributes substantially to shaping the Earth's atmospheric gasses and oceans and consequently its climate. Despite this global importance, we still have an incomplete understanding of how this biodiversity-rich biome developed over time. Knowing its history is crucially important for understanding how the short and long-term effects of biodiversity loss and climate change will impact the region, and the globe, in the future. Hence, we seek to understand the evolutionary and environmental-ecological history of Amazonia over the past 10 million years through a comparative approach that integrates across the disciplines of systematic biology, population biology, ecosystem structure and function, geology, Earth systems modeling and remote sensing, and paleoenvironmental history. During springtime 2013, the NASA/JPL airborne imaging radar, UAVSAR, conducted airborne studies over many regions of South America including portions of the western Amazon basin. We utilize UAVSAR imagery acquired over the Madre de Dios region of southeastern Peru in an assessment of the underlying geomorphology of the Amazon's planalto, its relationship to the current distribution of vegetation, and its relationship to geologic processes through deep time. In the late Neogene, the Amazonian lowlands comprised either a series of independent basins or a single sedimentary basin. The Amazonian planalto is variously described as either an erosional surface or a surface of deposition. We employ UAVSAR data collections to assess (1) the utility of these high quality imaging radar

  8. Exploring the Geomorphology of the Amazon's Planalto and Understanding the Origin of the Modern Amazon Basin with Imaging Radar:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, R.; McDonald, K. C.; Azarderakhsh, M.; Campbell, K.; Cracraft, J.; Carnaval, A. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazon basin is a biodiversity biome and plays a significant role into shaping the earth's climate, ocean and atmospheric gases. Understanding the history of the formation of the basin is essential to our understanding of the region's biodiversity loss and response to climate change. Ancient River channels in lowland Amazonia exhibit right angle branching structures as well as intricately intertwined channels. Past research has attributed these characteristic as a result of subsurface faults but makes it difficult to validate this augment due to dense vegetation and sedimentation. We seek to employ remote sensing techniques for examining geomorphological features and the relationship to evolutionary processes that shaped biodiversity in the modern Amazon River Basin. We utilize UAVSAR imagery gathered from the NASA/JPL airborne imaging radar over the Planalto, in the Madre de Dios region of Southeastern Peru in an assessment of the underlying geomorphology, its relationship to the current distribution of vegetation, and geologic processes through deep time. In the late Neogene, the Amazonian lowlands comprised either a series of independent basins or a single sedimentary basin. The Amazonian Planalto is variously described as either erosional surface or a surface of deposition. We employ UAVSAR data collection to assess (1) the utility of these radar data for use in identifying associated geomorphologic features, and (2) UAVSAR's utility in aiding interpretation of ALOS PALSAR and STRM datasets to support a basin-wide characterization. We derive maps of river networks using a canny based edge detection method applied on the UAVSAR backscatter images. We develop an algorithm, which separates the river networks into various catchments based on connected component and then calculates angles at each branch point. We then assess distribution of right angle branching structure throughout the entire region. The results of the analysis will have a major impact on

  9. Anthropogenic Effects on the Mixing State of Aerosols over Manaus during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraund, M. W.; Pham, D.; Harder, T.; O'Brien, R.; Wang, B.; Laskin, A.; Gilles, M. K.; Moffet, R.

    2015-12-01

    The role that anthropogenic aerosols play in cloud formation is uncertain and contributes largely to the uncertainty in predicting future climate. One region of particular importance is the Amazon rainforest, which accounts for over half of the world's rainforest. During GoAmazon2014/15 IOP2, aerosol samples were collected at multiple sites in and around the rapidly growing industrial city of Manaus in the Amazon basin. Manaus is of scientific interest due to the pristine nature of the surrounding rainforest and the high levels of pollution coming from the city in the form of SO2, NOx, and soot. Some sites, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science center (TES, also designated ZF2) located to the north of Manaus, represent air masses which have not interacted with emissions from the city. The comparison of pristine atmosphere with heavy pollution allows both for the determination of a natural baseline level of pollutants, as well as the study of pollutant's impact on the conversion of biogenic volatile organic compounds to secondary organic aerosols. Towards this goal, samples from ZF2 and other unpolluted sites will be compared to samples from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) climate research facility in Manacapuru (T3), which is southwest (downwind) of Manaus. Spatially resolved spectra were recorded at the sub-particle level using scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) at the carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen K-absorption edges. Scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX) was also performed on to characterize higher Z elements. These two techniques together will allow for the mass fraction of atmospherically relevant elements to be determined on a per-particle basis. We will apply established procedures to determine the mixing state index for samples collected at ZF2 and T3 using elemental mass fractions. Preliminary results will be presented which focus on investigating the difference between mixing

  10. Chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsior, Michael; Valle, Juliana; Schmitt-Kopplin, Philippe; Hertkorn, Norbert; Bastviken, David; Luek, Jenna; Harir, Mourad; Bastos, Wanderley; Enrich-Prast, Alex

    2016-07-01

    Regions in the Amazon Basin have been associated with specific biogeochemical processes, but a detailed chemical classification of the abundant and ubiquitous dissolved organic matter (DOM), beyond specific indicator compounds and bulk measurements, has not yet been established. We sampled water from different locations in the Negro, Madeira/Jamari and Tapajós River areas to characterize the molecular DOM composition and distribution. Ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) combined with excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy and parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) revealed a large proportion of ubiquitous DOM but also unique area-specific molecular signatures. Unique to the DOM of the Rio Negro area was the large abundance of high molecular weight, diverse hydrogen-deficient and highly oxidized molecular ions deviating from known lignin or tannin compositions, indicating substantial oxidative processing of these ultimately plant-derived polyphenols indicative of these black waters. In contrast, unique signatures in the Madeira/Jamari area were defined by presumably labile sulfur- and nitrogen-containing molecules in this white water river system. Waters from the Tapajós main stem did not show any substantial unique molecular signatures relative to those present in the Rio Madeira and Rio Negro, which implied a lower organic molecular complexity in this clear water tributary, even after mixing with the main stem of the Amazon River. Beside ubiquitous DOM at average H / C and O / C elemental ratios, a distinct and significant unique DOM pool prevailed in the black, white and clear water areas that were also highly correlated with EEM-PARAFAC components and define the frameworks for primary production and other aspects of aquatic life.

  11. Amazon River carbon dioxide outgassing fuelled by wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abril, Gwenaël; Martinez, Jean-Michel; Artigas, L. Felipe; Moreira-Turcq, Patricia; Benedetti, Marc F.; Vidal, Luciana; Meziane, Tarik; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Bernardes, Marcelo C.; Savoye, Nicolas; Deborde, Jonathan; Souza, Edivaldo Lima; Albéric, Patrick; Landim de Souza, Marcelo F.; Roland, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    River systems connect the terrestrial biosphere, the atmosphere and the ocean in the global carbon cycle. A recent estimate suggests that up to 3 petagrams of carbon per year could be emitted as carbon dioxide (CO2) from global inland waters, offsetting the carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. It is generally assumed that inland waters emit carbon that has been previously fixed upstream by land plant photosynthesis, then transferred to soils, and subsequently transported downstream in run-off. But at the scale of entire drainage basins, the lateral carbon fluxes carried by small rivers upstream do not account for all of the CO2 emitted from inundated areas downstream. Three-quarters of the world's flooded land consists of temporary wetlands, but the contribution of these productive ecosystems to the inland water carbon budget has been largely overlooked. Here we show that wetlands pump large amounts of atmospheric CO2 into river waters in the floodplains of the central Amazon. Flooded forests and floating vegetation export large amounts of carbon to river waters and the dissolved CO2 can be transported dozens to hundreds of kilometres downstream before being emitted. We estimate that Amazonian wetlands export half of their gross primary production to river waters as dissolved CO2 and organic carbon, compared with only a few per cent of gross primary production exported in upland (not flooded) ecosystems. Moreover, we suggest that wetland carbon export is potentially large enough to account for at least the 0.21 petagrams of carbon emitted per year as CO2 from the central Amazon River and its floodplains. Global carbon budgets should explicitly address temporary or vegetated flooded areas, because these ecosystems combine high aerial primary production with large, fast carbon export, potentially supporting a substantial fraction of CO2 evasion from inland waters.

  12. The Brazilian Amazon Region Eye Survey: Design and Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomão, Solange R; Furtado, João Marcello; Berezovsky, Adriana; Cavascan, Nívea N; Ferraz, Alberto N; Cohen, Jacob M; Muñoz, Sergio; Belfort, Rubens

    2017-08-01

    To describe the study design, operational strategies, procedures, and baseline characteristics of the Brazilian Amazon Region Eye Survey (BARES), a population-based survey of the prevalence and causes of distance and near visual impairment and blindness in older adults residing in the city of Parintins. Cluster sampling, based on geographically defined census sectors, was used for cross-sectional random sampling of persons 45 years and older from urban and rural areas. Subjects were enumerated through a door-to-door survey and invited for measurement of uncorrected, presenting and best-corrected visual acuity and an ocular examination. Of 9931 residents (5878 urban and 4053 rural), 2384 individuals (1410 urban and 974 rural) were eligible and 2041 (1180 urban and 861 rural) had a clinical examination (response rate 85.6%). The majority of participants were female (1041, 51.0%); the average age was 59.9 ± 11.1 years (60.2 ± 11.2 years for urban and 59.4 ± 11.1 years for rural); 1360 (66.6%) had primary schooling or less (58.1% in urban and 78.4% in rural) and 57.8% were resident in urban areas. The age distribution between sexes was similar (p = 0.178). Both sex and age distributions of the sample were comparable to that of the Brazilian Amazon Region population. The BARES cohort will provide information about the prevalence and causes of near and distance vision in this underprivileged and remote population in Brazil.

  13. Two Preliminary SRTM DEMs Within the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsdorf, D.; Hess, L.; Melack, J.; Dunne, T.; Mertes, L.; Ballantine, A.; Biggs, T.; Holmes, K.; Sheng, Y.; Hendricks, G.

    2002-12-01

    Digital topography provides important measures, such as hillslope lengths and flow path networks, for understanding hydrologic and geomorphic processes (e.g., runoff response to land use change and floodplain inundation volume). Two preliminary Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation models of Manaus (1S to 5S and 59W to 63W) and Rondonia (9S to 12S and 61W to 64W) were received from NASA JPL in August 2002. The "PI Processor" produced these initial DEM segments and we are using them to assess the initial accuracy of the interferometrically derived heights and for hydrologic research. The preliminary SRTM derived absolute elevations across the Amazon floodplain in the Cabaliana region generally range from 5 to 15 m with reported errors of 1 to 3 m. This region also includes some preliminary elevations that are erroneously negative. However, topographic contours on 1:100,000 scale quadrangles of 1978 to 1980 vintage indicate elevations of 20 to 30 m. Because double-bounce travel paths are possible over the sparsely vegetated and very-flat 2400 sq-km water surface of the Balbina reservoir near Manaus, it serves to identify the relative accuracy of the SRTM heights. Here, cell-to-cell height changes are generally 0 to 1 m and changes across a ~100 km transect rarely exceed 3 m. Reported errors throughout the transect range from 1 to 2 m with some errors up to 5 m. Deforestation in Rondonia is remarkably clear in the C-band DEM where elevations are recorded from the canopy rather than bare earth. Here, elevation changes are ~30 m (with reported 1 to 2 m errors) across clear-cut areas. Field derived canopy heights are in agreement with this change. Presently, we are deriving stream networks in the Amazon floodplain for comparison with our previous network extraction from JERS-1 SAR mosaics and for hydrologic modeling.

  14. Sources of optically active aerosol particles over the Amazon forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyon, Pascal; Graham, Bim; Roberts, Gregory C.; Mayol-Bracero, Olga L.; Maenhaut, Willy; Artaxo, Paulo; Andreae, Meinrat O.

    Size-fractionated ambient aerosol samples were collected at a pasture site and a primary rainforest site in the Brazilian Amazon Basin during two field campaigns (April-May and September-October 1999), as part of the European contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA-EUSTACH). The samples were analyzed for up to 19 trace elements by particle-induced X-ray emission analysis (PIXE), for equivalent black carbon (BC e) by a light reflectance technique and for mass concentration by gravimetric analysis. Additionally, we made continuous measurements of absorption and light scattering by aerosol particles. The vertical chemical composition gradients at the forest site have been discussed in a companion article (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 108 (D18), 4591 (doi:4510.1029/2003JD003465)). In this article, we present the results of a source identification and quantitative apportionment study of the wet and dry season aerosols, including an apportionment of the measured scattering and absorption properties of the total aerosol in terms of the identified aerosol sources. Source apportionments (obtained from absolute principal component analysis) revealed that the wet and dry season aerosols contained the same three main components, but in different (absolute and relative) amounts: the wet season aerosol consisted mainly of a natural biogenic component, whereas pyrogenic aerosols dominated the dry season aerosol mass. The third component identified was soil dust, which was often internally mixed with the biomass-burning aerosol. All three components contributed significantly to light extinction during both seasons. At the pasture site, up to 47% of the light absorption was attributed to biogenic particles during the wet season, and up to 35% at the tower site during the wet-to-dry transition period. The results from the present study suggest that, in addition to pyrogenic particles, biogenic and soil dust aerosols must be

  15. The geological record preserved by Amazon shelf sedimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nittrouer, Charles A.; Kuehl, Steven A.; Figueiredo, Alberto G.; Allison, Mead A.; Sommerfield, Christopher K.; Rine, James M.; Faria, L. Ercilio C.; Silveira, Odete M.

    A recent study of the subaqueous delta and coastal plain near the mouth of the Amazon River provides insight to the geological record created there and elsewhere. A compound clinoform structure is forming across the Amazon shelf. The uppermost portion is the shoreline, whose aggradation brings the modern sedimentary deposit to sea level and produces a deposit 5-10 m thick. It contains sediments accumulating primarily in shallow subtidal areas, intertidal mudflats and mangrove forests, and progradation occurs by overlapping of northward-extending mudcapes. Through these processes, the coastal plain has been widened by 10-100 km during the Holocene. The shoreline deposits are prograding across topset strata of the modern subaqueous delta, which is the lowermost and dominant portion of the compound clinoform structure. The subaqueous delta extends to a water depth of 70 m, with a depositional break between topset and foreset strata at 30-40 m. Advective sediment input to the foreset region causes high accumulation rates, which control the geometry and progradation of the clinoform structure. On time scales of 10 2-10 3 y, physical processes (e.g. waves, currents) have changed and the upper portions of the coastal plain and subaqueous delta have been eroded. One expression of this is a widespread unconformity recorded within late Holocene strata on the inner shelf. Over longer time scales (10 3-10 4 y) sea-level changes have led to more extensive erosion and only the lower 20 m of the compound clinoform structure is preserved, overlain by a transgressive sand layer. On other continental margins with different regional characteristics (e.g. more rapid subsidence) larger fractions of the clinoform structures could be preserved.

  16. Effect of fatty Amazon fish consumption on lipid metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisca das Chagas do Amaral Souza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of feeding diets enriched with fatty fish from the Amazon basin on lipid metabolism. METHODS: Male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: control group treated with commercial chow; Mapará group was fed diet enriched with Hypophthalmus edentatus; Matrinxã group was fed diet enriched with Brycon spp.; and, Tambaqui group was fed diet enriched with Colossoma macropomum. Rats with approximately 240g±0.60 of body weight were fed ad libitum for 30 days, and then were sacrificed for collection of whole blood and tissues. RESULTS: The groups treated with enriched diets showed a significant reduction in body mass and lipogenesis in the epididymal and retroperitoneal adipose tissues and carcass when compared with the control group. However, lipogenesis in the liver showed an increase in Matrinxã group compared with the others groups. The levels of serum triglycerides in the treated groups with Amazonian fish were significantly lower than those of the control group. Moreover, total cholesterol concentration only decreased in the group Matrinxã. High Density Lipoprotein cholesterol levels increased significantly in the Mapará and Tambaqui compared with control group and Matrinxã group. The insulin and leptin levels increased significantly in all treatment groups. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that diets enriched with fatty fish from the Amazon basin changed the lipid metabolism by reducing serum triglycerides and increasing high density lipoprotein-cholesterol in rats fed with diets enriched with Mapará, Matrinxã, and Tambaqui.

  17. Trading forests for yields in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Holly

    2012-03-01

    Our knowledge of how agriculture expands, and the types of land it replaces, is remarkably limited across the tropics. Most remote-sensing studies focus on the net gains and losses in forests and agricultural land rather than the land-use transition pathways (Gibbs et al 2010). Only a handful of studies identify land sources for new croplands or plantations, and then only for farming systems aggregated together (e.g., Koh and Wilcove 2008, Morton et al 2006, Gibbs et al 2010). Gutiérrez-Vélez et al (2011), however, have taken a leap forward by tracking the different expansion pathways for smallholder and industrial oil palm plantations. Using a combination of Landsat, MODIS and field surveys, they investigate whether higher yields in new agricultural lands spare forests in the Peruvian Amazon and in a smaller focus area in the Ucayali region. Across the Peruvian Amazon, they show that between 2000 and 2010, new high-yield oil palm plantations replaced forests 72% of the time and accounted for 1.3% of total deforestation, with most expansion occurring after 2006. Gutiérrez-Vélez et al went further in the Ucayali region and compared land sources for new high-yield and low-yield plantations. Expansion of higher-yield agricultural lands should logically reduce the total area needed for production, thus potentially sparing forests. In the Ucayali focus area, expansion of high-yield oil palm did convert less total land area but more forest was cleared than with low-yield expansion. Smaller-scale plantations tended to expand into already cleared areas while industrial-scale plantations traded their greater yields for forests, leading to higher land-clearing carbon emissions per production unit (Gibbs et al 2008). Gutiérrez-Vélez et al show that higher yields may require less land for production but more forest may be lost in the process, and they emphasize the need for stronger incentives for land sparing. The potential land-saving nature of these high

  18. Comunidades locales, conservación de la avifauna y de la biodiversidad en la Amazonía peruana

    OpenAIRE

    José Álvarez

    2013-01-01

    La Amazonía peruana ha sido vista por la mayoría de los gobiernos como una región rica en recursos, subutilizada y abierta para ser explotada. La visión de la Amazonía ha estado (y en cierto modo todavía está) deformada por lo que algunos han dado en llamar “los mitos sobre la Amazonía” (CADMA, 1992).

  19. Comunidades locales, conservación de la avifauna y de la biodiversidad en la Amazonía peruana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Álvarez

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available La Amazonía peruana ha sido vista por la mayoría de los gobiernos como una región rica en recursos, subutilizada y abierta para ser explotada. La visión de la Amazonía ha estado (y en cierto modo todavía está deformada por lo que algunos han dado en llamar “los mitos sobre la Amazonía” (CADMA, 1992.

  20. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  1. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  2. Amazon Web Services(AWS)云平台可靠性技术研究%Research on Reliability Technology of Amazon Web Services(AWS) Cloud Platform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘义颖

    2014-01-01

    目前软件应用广泛,对软件可靠性要求越来越高。近几年云计算技术的研究逐渐增多,对于云平台的可靠性技术也有了新的要求。Amazon Web Services(AWS)提供了一整套云计算服务,用户能够构建复杂、可扩展的应用程序。AWS在最小成本情况下,为用户提供了一套构建容错的软件系统平台。在技术和性能等多方面的优势,被业界广泛认可和接受。该文主要研究Amazon Web Services云平台中的核心组件是如何提供可靠性技术的,分别对核心组件Amazon EC2, Amazon Simple Storage (S3),Elastic Storage Block (EBS),Elastic Load Balancing,Auto Scaling进行研究分析,为以后云计算平台的搭建和可靠性技术的研究提供依据。%At present, the software is widely used, the requirement of reliability of software is more and more high necessary. In recent years, the research about cloud computing has gradually increased, the reliability technology of cloud platform also has new requirements. Amazon Web Services (AWS) provides a set of cloud computing services, users can build complex and scalable ap⁃plications. In the minimum cost situation, AWS provides a set of building fault-tolerant software platform for the users. Because of the advantages of technology and performance, it was widely recognized and accepted. This paper mainly studies that how the core component of Amazon Web Services cloud platform can provide reliability technology, research on the core components of Amazon were EC2, Amazon Simple Storage (S3), Elastic Storage Block (EBS), Elastic Load Balancing, Auto Scaling, to provide the basis theory for building a cloud computing platform or research on reliability technology.

  3. Challenges to managing ecosystems sustainably for poverty alleviation: Securing well-being in the Andes/Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    ESPA-AA (Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation Program)

    2008-01-01

    This report focuses on the Amazon basin and the eastern Andean slopes (herein referred to as the Andes/Amazon ecosystem or region). The Amazon is the largest fresh water system and tropical forest in the world. Large portions of the region are still covered by relatively intact primary forests that provide substantial locally and globally valuable ecosystem services (ES). Rural population densities in the region are among the lowest in the world. As such, the Andes/Amazon is a contrast to oth...

  4. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  5. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  6. Amazon Web Services: Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the conterminous United States that...

  7. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  8. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  9. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  10. Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub

    2010-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., & Kurvers, H. J. (2010, 23 March). Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation during a workshop with Sector5, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands; iCoper.

  11. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology...

  12. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed...

  13. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  14. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  15. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  16. Plasmodium vivax Landscape in Brazil: Scenario and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, Andre M; Mesones-Lapouble, Oscar; Marchesini, Paola; Sampaio, Vanderson de Souza; Brasil, Patricia; Tauil, Pedro L; Fontes, Cor Jesus; Costa, Fabio T M; Daniel-Ribeiro, Cláudio Tadeu; Lacerda, Marcus V G; Damasceno, Camila P; Santelli, Ana Carolina S

    2016-12-28

    Brazil is the largest country of Latin America, with a considerable portion of its territoritory within the malaria-endemic Amazon region in the North. Furthermore, a considerable portion of its territory is located within the Amazon region in the north. As a result, Brazil has reported half of the total malaria cases in the Americas in the last four decades. Recent progress in malaria control has been accompanied by an increasing proportion of Plasmodium vivax, underscoring a need for a better understanding of management and control of this species and associated challenges. Among these challenges, the contribution of vivax malaria relapses, earlier production of gametocytes (compared with Plasmodium falciparum), inexistent methods to diagnose hypnozoite carriers, and decreasing efficacy of available antimalarials need to be addressed. Innovative tools, strategies, and technologies are needed to achieve further progress toward sustainable malaria elimination. Further difficulties also arise from dealing with the inherent socioeconomic and environmental particularities of the Amazon region and its dynamic changes.

  17. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  18. Implications of Scientific Collaboration Networks on Studies of Aquatic Vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero, María Celeste; Michalski, Fernanda

    2016-01-01

    The quantity of wildlife extracted from the Amazon has increased in the past decades as a consequence of an increase in human population density and income growth. To evaluate the spatial distribution of studies on subsistence and/or commercial hunting conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, we selected eight mid-sized and large-bodied aquatic vertebrate species with a history of human exploitation in the region. We used a combination of searches in the gray and scientific literature from the past 24 years to provide an updated distributional map of studies on the target species. We calculated the distances between the study sites and the locations of the research institutes/universities that the first and last authors of the same study were affiliated to. For the period of 1990 to 2014, we found 105 studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of aquatic vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon in 271 locations that involved 43 institutions (37 Brazilian and 6 international). The spatial distribution of the studies across the Brazilian Amazon varied, but over 80% took place in the northeast and central Amazon, encompassing three States of the Legal Brazilian Amazon (Amazonas, 51.42%; Pará, 19.05%; and Amapá, 16.19%). Over half of the research study sites (52.91%) were within 500 km of the research institute/university of the first or last authors. Some research institutes/universities did not have any inter-institutional collaborations, while others collaborated with eight or more institutes. Some research institutes/universities conducted many studies, had an extensive collaboration network, and contributed greatly to the network of studies on Amazonian aquatic vertebrates. Our research contributes to the knowledge of studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of the most exploited aquatic vertebrates of the Brazilian Amazon, illustrates the impact that collaboration networks have on research, and highlights potential areas for improvement and the

  19. Implications of Scientific Collaboration Networks on Studies of Aquatic Vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Celeste Salinero

    Full Text Available The quantity of wildlife extracted from the Amazon has increased in the past decades as a consequence of an increase in human population density and income growth. To evaluate the spatial distribution of studies on subsistence and/or commercial hunting conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, we selected eight mid-sized and large-bodied aquatic vertebrate species with a history of human exploitation in the region. We used a combination of searches in the gray and scientific literature from the past 24 years to provide an updated distributional map of studies on the target species. We calculated the distances between the study sites and the locations of the research institutes/universities that the first and last authors of the same study were affiliated to. For the period of 1990 to 2014, we found 105 studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of aquatic vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon in 271 locations that involved 43 institutions (37 Brazilian and 6 international. The spatial distribution of the studies across the Brazilian Amazon varied, but over 80% took place in the northeast and central Amazon, encompassing three States of the Legal Brazilian Amazon (Amazonas, 51.42%; Pará, 19.05%; and Amapá, 16.19%. Over half of the research study sites (52.91% were within 500 km of the research institute/university of the first or last authors. Some research institutes/universities did not have any inter-institutional collaborations, while others collaborated with eight or more institutes. Some research institutes/universities conducted many studies, had an extensive collaboration network, and contributed greatly to the network of studies on Amazonian aquatic vertebrates. Our research contributes to the knowledge of studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of the most exploited aquatic vertebrates of the Brazilian Amazon, illustrates the impact that collaboration networks have on research, and highlights potential areas for

  20. Implications of Scientific Collaboration Networks on Studies of Aquatic Vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero, María Celeste; Michalski, Fernanda

    2016-01-01

    The quantity of wildlife extracted from the Amazon has increased in the past decades as a consequence of an increase in human population density and income growth. To evaluate the spatial distribution of studies on subsistence and/or commercial hunting conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, we selected eight mid-sized and large-bodied aquatic vertebrate species with a history of human exploitation in the region. We used a combination of searches in the gray and scientific literature from the past 24 years to provide an updated distributional map of studies on the target species. We calculated the distances between the study sites and the locations of the research institutes/universities that the first and last authors of the same study were affiliated to. For the period of 1990 to 2014, we found 105 studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of aquatic vertebrates in the Brazilian Amazon in 271 locations that involved 43 institutions (37 Brazilian and 6 international). The spatial distribution of the studies across the Brazilian Amazon varied, but over 80% took place in the northeast and central Amazon, encompassing three States of the Legal Brazilian Amazon (Amazonas, 51.42%; Pará, 19.05%; and Amapá, 16.19%). Over half of the research study sites (52.91%) were within 500 km of the research institute/university of the first or last authors. Some research institutes/universities did not have any inter-institutional collaborations, while others collaborated with eight or more institutes. Some research institutes/universities conducted many studies, had an extensive collaboration network, and contributed greatly to the network of studies on Amazonian aquatic vertebrates. Our research contributes to the knowledge of studies on the subsistence and/or commercial hunting of the most exploited aquatic vertebrates of the Brazilian Amazon, illustrates the impact that collaboration networks have on research, and highlights potential areas for improvement and the

  1. Oil and Gas Projects in the Western Amazon: Threats to Wilderness, Biodiversity, and Indigenous Peoples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finer, Matt; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Pimm, Stuart L.; Keane, Brian; Ross, Carl

    2008-01-01

    Background The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. Methodology/Principal Findings We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or “blocks” that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover ∼688,000 km2 of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. Conclusions/Significance Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories. PMID:18716679

  2. Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Finer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2 of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

  3. Late Quaternary Vegetation and Climate Change in the Amazon Basin Based on a 50,000 Year Pollen Record from the Amazon Fan, ODP Site 932

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Simon G.; Maslin, Mark A.

    1999-01-01

    Hemipelagic sediments from the Amazon deep-sea fan, ODP Site 932 (5° 12.7‧N, 47° 1.8‧W), and continental shelf provide a 50,000-yr-long pollen record of Amazon Basin vegetation. The age model for Hole 932A is constrained by eight magnetic remanence intensity features, one paleomagnetic excursion, and three AMS14C dates.Alchornea,Melastomataceae, Myrtaceae, and Moraceae/Urticaceae are dominant taxa in the pollen record between 40,200 and 19,800 cal yr B.P. Andean taxa, such asPodocarpusandHedyosmum,increase in abundance between 19,800 and 11,000 cal yr B.P. and prior to 40,200 cal yr B.P. The Holocene pollen assemblage, derived from Amazon River and continental shelf sediments, is dominated by secondary growth taxa, such asCecropia.Climatic factors influencing the development of glacial and interglacial tropical vegetation are considered by comparing marine with terrestrial records of vegetation change. This comparison shows that the Amazon Basin forests were not extensively replaced by savanna vegetation during the glacial period, contradicting the refugia hypothesis.

  4. O programa piloto para proteção das florestas tropicais do Brasil (PPG-7 e a globalização da Amazônia Pilot program for tropical forest protection in Brazil (PPG-7 and the globalization of the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgio De Antoni

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available O PPG-7 desenvolvido desde 1994 até 2009 adquire um significado especial pelo fato de marcar a passagem da ideologia conservacionista à introdução da economia de mercado na região amazônica. A própria oferta do G-7 e a aceitação do governo brasileiro da época visavam a integrar a iniciativa dentro do novo cenário internacional, dando início ao processo de mercantilização atual da Amazônia.The PPG-7, developed from 1994 to 2009, acquires a special significance by making the transition of a conservationist ideology to the introduction of market economy in the Amazon region. The proposal of G-7 and the acceptance of the Brazilian government at that time sought to integrate the initiative within the new international scenario, initiating the current mercantile process of the Amazon.

  5. Investigating Landsat-derived forest evapotranspiration in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khand, K. B.; Numata, I.; Kjaersgaard, J.; Cochrane, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Nearly half of annual rainfall in the Amazon rainforest region is returned to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). However, this land-atmosphere water vapor feedback in Amazonia has been continuously disturbed by anthropogenic influence and climate change such as severe drought events. While forest ET dynamics in the Amazon have been studied from both point estimates (or in-situ measurements) and regional land-surface models as well as coarse-spatial satellite data, finer spatial data is required to address the spatial variability of forest ET associated with both forest disturbances and extreme climate events. We use Landsat-based METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) model to generate high-resolution (30 m) ET products and investigate its potential to characterize local and regional ET behavior by comparison to ET calculated from flux tower data. METRIC estimates actual ET as residual of the surface energy balance and is applied to capture the spatial variability of forest ET. The flux tower data were collected at two sites with different forest types: Para with wet equatorial forest and Rondônia with seasonally dry tropical forest. Our study was conducted on the dry season of the years 2003 and 2005 for Para, and 2000 through 2002 for Rondônia as a function of data availability of both cloud-free Landsat images and meteorological data for METRIC processing. Daily gridded actual ET estimates from METRIC during the dry season were obtained using a cubic spline interpolation of ETrF (fraction of reference ET) values between the satellite image dates and multiplying by daily reference ET. Across the all study years, differences between the daily ET estimates for the selected image dates from METRIC and the flux towers were less than 1.2 mm/day, while on monthly basis, these averaged daily ET differences were much lower (< 0.5 mm). At Para, the correlation (R2) between the daily ET rates from METRIC and the

  6. Global Changes And Tree Growth Rate In The Amazon Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, P. B.; Vieira, S. A.; Trumbore, S. E.

    2003-12-01

    A better understanding of the variations in the dynamics and structure of trees in tropical forests is necessary for predicting the potential for these ecosystems to lose or store carbon. In general, tropical forests have been treated as if all trees behaved similarly, and little is known about how forests vary across the large extent of the Amazon basin. Our data show large differences in forest structure, biomass, and tree growth rates among plots under study in three locations in Brazil: ZF-2 Bionte/Jacaranda plots \\(Manaus\\), Catuaba Reserve \\(Rio Branco\\), and Tapaj¢s National Forest \\(Santarém\\). These locations span an east-west transect of the Amazon basin with different dry-season lengths. The number of stems >10cm diameter and stocks of C in aboveground biomass are the highest in Manaus \\(626ha-1, 180.1Mg.C.ha-1\\), than Rio Branco \\(466ha-1, 122.1Mg.C.ha-1\\) or Santarém \\(460ha-1, 140.6Mg.C.ha-1\\). Estimates of mean annual accumulation of C ranged from 1.6 \\(Manaus\\) and 2.5 \\(Rio Branco\\) to 2.8Mg.C.ha-1.yr-1 \\(Santarém\\). Trees in the 10-30cm diameter-size showed the highest accumulation of C \\(38%, 55%, and 56% - Manaus, Rio Branco, and Santarém, respectively\\). Our results showed marked seasonal growth, with the highest growth rates in the wet-season and the lowest growth rates in the dry-season. This effect was most evident for trees with diameter >50cm. The comparison of the three areas investigated suggests that forests experiencing a longer dry-season have larger annual diameter growth increments for individual trees. Tree average age was larger in Manaus where the increment was smaller. In all the three areas it was found specimens with DBH smaller than 30cm, but with ages over 200 years. It was found a specimen of 17 cm of DBH and age of 920 years. The fact that small trees can reach old ages may alter the scope of the present forest management planning whose focus is tree species of economical interest and the time the

  7. Impact of seasonal hydrological variation on the distributions of tetraether lipids along the Amazon River in the central Amazon basin: implications for the MBT/CBT paleothermometer and the BIT index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zell, C.; Kim, J.-H.; Abril, G.; Lima Sobrinho, R.; Dorhout, D.; Moreiro-Turcq, P.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2013-01-01

    Suspended particulate matter (SPM) was collected along the Amazon River in the central Amazon basin and in three tributaries during the rising water (RW), high water (HW), falling water (FW) and low water (LW) season. Changes in the concentration and the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl gly

  8. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  9. The AmazonFACE research program: assessing the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the ecology and resilience of the Amazon forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapola, David; Quesada, Carlos; Norby, Richard; Araújo, Alessandro; Domingues, Tomas; Hartley, Iain; Kruijt, Bart; Lewin, Keith; Meir, Patrick; Ometto, Jean; Rammig, Anja

    2016-04-01

    The existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed "CO2 fertilization" effect in tropical forests remains largely undetermined, despite being suggested for nearly 20 years as a key knowledge gap for understanding the future resilience of Amazonian forests and its impact on the global carbon cycle. Reducing this uncertainty is critical for assessing the future of the Amazon region as well as its vulnerability to climate change. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) research program is an integrated model-experiment initiative of unprecedented scope in an old-growth Amazon forest near Manaus, Brazil - the first of its kind in tropical forest. The experimental treatment will simulate an atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of the future in order to address the question: "How will rising atmospheric CO2 affect the resilience of the Amazon forest, the biodiversity it harbors, and the ecosystem services it provides, in light of projected climatic changes?" AmazonFACE is divided into three phases: (I) pre-experimental ecological characterization of the research site; (II) pilot experiment comprised of two 30-m diameter plots, with one treatment plot maintained at elevated [CO2] (ambient +200 ppmv), and the other control plot at ambient [CO2]; and (III) a fully-replicated long-term experiment comprised of four pairs of control/treatment FACE plots maintained for 10 years. A team of scientists from Brazil, USA, Australia and Europe will employ state-of-the-art methods to study the forest inside these plots in terms of carbon metabolism and cycling, water use, nutrient cycling, forest community composition, and interactions with environmental stressors. All project phases also encompass ecosystem-modeling activities in a way such that models provide hypothesis to be verified in the experiment, which in turn will feed models to ultimately produce more accurate projections of the environment. Resulting datasets and analyses will be a valuable resource for a broad community

  10. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  11. Risks of endemicity, morbidity and perspectives regarding the control of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coura, José Rodrigues; Junqueira, Angela Cv

    2012-03-01

    Chagas disease, in the Amazon Region as elsewhere, can be considered an enzootic disease of wild animals or an anthropozoonosis, an accidental disease of humans that is acquired when humans penetrate a wild ecosystem or when wild triatomines invade human dwellings attracted by light or searching for human blood. The risk of endemic Chagas disease in the Amazon Region is associated with the following phenomena: (i) extensive deforestation associated with the displacement of wild mammals, which are the normal sources of blood for triatomines, (ii) adaptation of wild triatomines to human dwellings due to the need for a new source of blood for feeding and (iii) uncontrolled migration of human populations and domestic animals that are already infected with Trypanosoma cruzi from areas endemic for Chagas disease to the Amazon Region. Several outbreaks of severe acute cases of Chagas disease, as well as chronic cases, have been described in the Amazon Region. Control measures targeted to avoiding endemic Chagas disease in the Amazon Region should be the following: improving health education in communities, training public health officials and communities for vector and Chagas disease surveillance and training local physicians to recognise and treat acute and chronic cases of Chagas diseases as soon as possible.

  12. Downscaling Statistical Model Techniques for Climate Change Analysis Applied to the Amazon Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Mendes

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon is an area covered predominantly by dense tropical rainforest with relatively small inclusions of several other types of vegetation. In the last decades, scientific research has suggested a strong link between the health of the Amazon and the integrity of the global climate: tropical forests and woodlands (e.g., savannas exchange vast amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are thought to be important in controlling local and regional climates. Consider the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the role of the protected area in the conservation of biodiversity and state-of-art of downscaling model techniques based on ANN Calibrate and run a downscaling model technique based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN that is applied to the Amazon region in order to obtain regional and local climate predicted data (e.g., precipitation. Considering the importance of the Amazon biome to the global climate changes impacts and the state-of-art of downscaling techniques for climate models, the shower of this work is presented as follows: the use of ANNs good similarity with the observation in the cities of Belém and Manaus, with correlations of approximately 88.9% and 91.3%, respectively, and spatial distribution, especially in the correction process, representing a good fit.

  13. Modeling River Hydrologic Regime and Spawning of Migratory Catfishes in Southeastern Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canas, C. M.; Waylen, P. R.

    2008-05-01

    Seasonal hydrologic conditions and catfish larvae production were evaluated in the Madre de Dios River in order to determine whether environmental conditions influence the reproductive activity of a group of large, commercially important catfishes, in the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon. A simple stochastic model of floods is presented to describe the influence of the natural high flow regime on observed patterns of catfish larvae release and drifting. Daily river stage records at Puerto Maldonado are related to weekly larval catches to determine the association between flood and spawning events. On the basis of hydroclimatologic characteristics of Andean- Amazon regions, available long-term historical rainfall records are employed to approximate the likely inter- annual variability of floods within this Amazon headwater basin. Major larval drift appeared associated with stages of over the 5 m, or "Biologic Hydrologic Significant Events" (BSE), which act as triggers, or a reasonable surrogates, for spawning responses of these species. The timing of BSEs, estimated from the historical rainfall records, appear to be uniformly distributed during the rain season and their inter-arrival times exponential. These observations provided the basis of the stochastic model describing the likelihood of volumes of larvae releases from the headwater region to lowland Amazon. The ecologically significant role of the hydroclimatology of this region in the complete life cycle of this important Amazon fish resource is illustrated.

  14. Transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon area; Transporte de produtos perigosos na regiao Amazonica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Wallace de Castro [FURNAS Centrais Eletricas S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Fernandes, Elton; Nassi, Carlos David [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE)

    2008-07-01

    Amongst several exploratory sources of the subject 'hazardous materials transport', it is distinguished: 'the threat to the environment'. This paper presents an exploratory investigation of this subject line in the Amazon region. In view of the diversity of 'existing hazardous materials' and the raised dimension of the oil transport and its derivatives in this context, this paper focused in these products. Regarding to the geographic region, the approach was given to the State of Amazon, considering the amplitude of this State in the Amazon region and the availability of data. Therefore, this work explores and analyzes macro aspects inherent to the State of Amazon pertinent to the oil transport and its derivatives. In the macro context, it is observed the necessity of a higher control in the transport of hazardous materials in the region. The absence of registered data and the unfamiliarity on the risks related to the transport of hazardous materials by authorities and transporters indicate a relative absence of qualification in the region to deal with the monitoring of the transport of hazardous materials. So far, it is not possible up till now to make any evaluation of the environment threats of accidents with transport of hazardous materials in the Amazon region.(author)

  15. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  16. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  17. Palaeohydrological controls on sedimentary organic matter in an Amazon floodplain lake, Lake Maracá (Brazil) during the late Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreira, L.S.; Moreira-Turcq, P.; Turcq, B.; Cordeiro, R.C.; Kim, J.-H.; Caquineau, S.; Mandeng-Yogo, M.; Macario, K.D.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2013-01-01

    In order to understand the impact of hydrological changes of the Amazon River on sedimentary organic matter (OM) composition in Amazonian floodplain lakes, three sediment cores were collected from Lake Maracá (eastern Amazonia) along a transect from the Amazon River main channel to inland. The cores

  18. Interagency Command and Control Approaches in Amazon Environment to Include, Trust, Cultural and Personal Relationship into a C2 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    makes the interpersonal trust among the officers play a greater role than a simple institutional relationship. AMAZON BRAZILIAN CULTURE...There is a duality in the concept of warmth . The most actions of the Brazilian people are directed by the heart than by reason, and...exchange in Brazilian Amazon environment is stronglly affected by the interpersonal relationship amongthe people involved in

  19. A Slippery Slope: Children's Perceptions of Their Role in Environmental Preservation in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galeano, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Despite international attention and attempts to preserve the environmental diversity of the Amazon, it is an accepted fact that those who inhabit the forest must be the ones who preserve it. This article presents an analysis of how children in small rural riverine communities along the Amazon understand the importance of environmental preservation…

  20. Response of the Amazon carbon balance to the 2010 drought derived with CarbonTracker South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laan-Luijkx, van der I.T.; Velde, van der I.R.; Krol, M.C.; Gatti, L.V.; Domingues, L.G.; Correia, C.S.C.; Miller, J.B.; Gloor, M.; Leeuwen, van T.T.; Kaiser, J.W.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Basu, S.; Clerbaux, C.; Peters, W.

    2015-01-01

    Two major droughts in the past decade had large impacts on carbon exchange in the Amazon. Recent analysis of vertical profile measurements of atmospheric CO2 and CO by Gatti et al. (2014) suggests that the 2010 drought turned the normally close-to-neutral annual Amazon carbon balance into a substant

  1. Response of the Amazon carbon balance to the 2010 drought derived with CarbonTracker South America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid; van der Velde, Ivar; Krol, Maarten; Gatti, Luciana; Miller, John; Gloor, Manuel; van Leeuwen, Thijs; Kaiser, Johannes; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Basu, Sourish; Clerbaux, Cathy; Peters, Wouter

    2015-01-01

    Two major droughts in the past decade had large impacts on carbon exchange in the Amazon. Recent analysis of vertical profile measurements of atmospheric CO2 and CO by Gatti et al. [2014] suggests that the 2010 drought turned the normally close to neutral annual Amazon carbon balance into a substant

  2. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  3. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  4. Effects of Climate Change and Deforestation on the Amazon's Hydrological Cycle Will Require Interventions to Hydropower Planning in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, M. E.; Farinosi, F.; Lee, E.; Livino, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Brazil is the 2nd largest hydropower producer in the world, and this energy source will continue to be a priority in the country for the foreseeable decades. Yet, climate change is expected to alter the country's hydrological regime, in particular in the Amazon where most new hydropower development is occurring. In order to better assess the potential of hydropower projects in decades to come, it is important to evaluate how future hydrological regimes will affect their performance and suitability. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and land use conversion on hydropower generation, and identifies mechanisms that could help energy planners to account for future changes. Using the largest network of dams in Brazil's national portfolio within a single watershed, the Tapaj's River, this study connects global and regional future environmental projections to daily river flows and operations of 37 dams with an overall potential capacity of 29.4 GW. We found that climate change could decrease hydropower potential by 477-665 MW (-6 to -8% from historical conditions) during the dry season, a critical loss since dams are expected to operate at only one third of capacity during this perioddue to the limited reservoir volume of most projects in the Amazon lowlands. Furthermore, deforestation is expected to increase the inter-annual variability in hydropower potential from 2,798 for baseline conditions to 3,764-3,899 (+967-1102) MW under future scenarios for the 2040s. Consideration of future hydrological conditions on individual dams showed that the magnitude and uncertainty of losses could be greater than 30 MW -equivalent to the total potential of some dams in the inventory- in 11 of the projects studied. Future hydrological conditions could also delay the period when maximum daily generation occurs by 22-29 days, which could have important implications to energy planning in Brazil because these run-of-river dams would no longer be able to meet the country

  5. Commons management and ecotourism: Ethnographic evidence from the Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Lee Stronza

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluates the relationship between ecotourism and commons management. Social and economic impacts of ecotourism in an indigenous village in the Peruvian Amazon are considered in relation to opportunities for collective action to manage common pool resources, including wildlife, forests, and river habitats. Longitudinal, ethnographic data gathered over 12 years about a joint venture ecotourism project between a private company and a local community show three outcomes that support commons management and three outcomes that challenge it. The outcomes in favor of commons management include: direct economic returns that act as conservation incentives, strengthened organization resulting from participatory management of ecotourism, and expanded networks of support from outside actors. Outcomes that are challenging the potential for collective action include: direct economic returns that enable expanded individual production and extraction, a new spirit of individual entrepreneurship that threatens to debilitate traditional social relations and institutions, and a conservation ethic that fosters dualistic thinking about people and nature and the zoning of places where resources are used vs. where they are preserved.

  6. Nutrient retranslocation in forest species in the Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murilo Rezende Machado

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Internal retranslocation is an important mechanism for nutrient conservation in plants, which depends on different factors. However, there are little data about this subject, especially on tropical forest species. This study aimed to evaluate the macronutrient retranslocation dynamic and the influence of ecological (P: pioneer x NP: non-pioneer and phenological (ND: non-deciduous x D: semideciduous / deciduous characteristics on the macronutrient content of leaves of five tree species on monospecific plantations in the Brazilian Amazon: Acacia mangium Willd., Parkia decussata Ducke, Dipteryx odorata (Aublet Willd., Jacaranda copaia (Aubl. D. Don and Swietenia macrophylla King. Photosynthetically active green leaves and senescent leaves (leaf litter were collected. Retranslocation was estimated through an equation proposed by Attiwill, Guthrie and Leuning (1978. The pioneer species presented higher foliar contents of N; the non-pioneer species presented higher contents of K, Ca and S; and the results were inconclusive for P and Mg. The deciduous species presented higher foliar contents of K and of P, whereas the foliar contents of N, Ca, Mg and S were virtually identical between the phenological groups. The internal retranslocation of foliar nutrients in pioneer and non-deciduous species was higher than that of non-pioneer and deciduous species.

  7. Molecular cytogenetic characterization of the Amazon River dolphin Inia geoffrensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonifácio, Heidi L; da Silva, Vera M F; Martin, Anthony R; Feldberg, Eliana

    2012-09-01

    Classical and molecular cytogenetic (18S rDNA, telomeric sequence, and LINE-1 retrotransposon probes) studies were carried out to contribute to an understanding of the organization of repeated DNA elements in the Amazon River dolphin (boto, Inia geoffrensis). Twenty-seven specimens were examined, each presenting 2n = 44 chromosomes, the karyotype formula 12m + 14sm + 6st + 10t + XX/XY, and fundamental number (FN) = 74. C-positive heterochromatin was observed in terminal and interstitial positions, with the occurrence of polymorphism. Interstitial telomeric sequences were not observed. The nucleolar organizer region (NOR) was located at a single site on a smallest autosomal pair. LINE-1 was preferentially distributed in the euchromatin regions, with the greatest accumulation on the X chromosome. Although the karyotype structure in cetaceans is considered to be conserved, the boto karyotype demonstrated significant variations in its formula, heterochromatin distribution, and the location of the NOR compared to other cetacean species. These results contribute to knowledge of the chromosome organization in boto and to a better understanding of karyoevolution in cetaceans.

  8. Antibacterial Activity of Aluminum in Clay from the Colombian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londono, S Carolina; Hartnett, Hilairy E; Williams, Lynda B

    2017-02-21

    The problems of antibiotic overuse compel us to seek alternative antibacterial agents. Some clays have been shown to kill antibiotic-resistant human pathogens and may provide an alternative to known antibiotics. Here we show that Al toxicity plays a central role in the antibacterial action of a kaolin-rich clay from the Colombian Amazon (AMZ). Antibacterial susceptibility testing shows minimum inhibitory concentrations of 80 mg/mL against a model Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922). The clay buffered the media pH to ∼4.6 and Eh values to +360 mV. Chemical analysis of AMZ and bacteria showed that Al, P, and transition metals (Fe, Cu, Mn, and Zn) were exchanged during incubation at 37 °C. Only Al derived from the clay exceeded the minimum inhibitory concentrations for E. coli under acidic conditions. Ion imaging showed elevated Al levels in the bacterial membrane, and high intracellular Fe levels, relative to those of untreated controls. Phosphorus depletion in E. coli after reaction with AMZ, together with evidence of membrane permeabilization, suggests that Al reacts with membrane phospholipids, enhancing intracellular transport of metals. These results highlight the importance of dissolved Al for amplifying the toxicity of transition metals to human pathogens.

  9. Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elías Cisneros

    Full Text Available Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit.

  10. Naming and Shaming for Conservation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisneros, Elías; Zhou, Sophie Lian; Börner, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has dropped substantially after a peak of over 27 thousand square kilometers in 2004. Starting in 2008, the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment has regularly published blacklists of critical districts with high annual forest loss. Farms in blacklisted districts face additional administrative hurdles to obtain authorization for clearing forests. In this paper we add to the existing literature on evaluating the Brazilian anti-deforestation policies by specifically quantifying the impact of blacklisting on deforestation. We first use spatial matching techniques using a set of covariates that includes official blacklisting criteria to identify control districts. We then explore the effect of blacklisting on change in deforestation in double difference regressions with panel data covering the period from 2002 to 2012. Multiple robustness checks are conducted including an analysis of potential causal mechanisms behind the success of the blacklist. We find that the blacklist has considerably reduced deforestation in the affected districts even after controlling for the potential mechanism effects of field-based enforcement, environmental registration campaigns, and rural credit.

  11. AMAZON RAINFOREST COSMETICS: CHEMICAL APPROACH FOR QUALITY CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariko Funasaki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The market for natural cosmetics featuring ingredients derived from Amazon natural resources is growing worldwide. However, there is neither enough scientific basis nor quality control of these ingredients. This paper is an account of the chemical constituents and their biological activities of fourteen Amazonian species used in cosmetic industry, including açaí (Euterpe oleracea, andiroba (Carapa guianensis, bacuri (Platonia insignis, Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, buriti (Mauritia vinifera or M. flexuosa, cumaru (Dipteryx odorata, cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum, guarana (Paullinia cupana, mulateiro (Calycophyllum spruceanum, murumuru (Astrocaryum murumuru, patawa (Oenocarpus bataua or Jessenia bataua, pracaxi (Pentaclethra macroloba, rosewood (Aniba rosaeodora, and ucuuba (Virola sebifera. Based on the reviewed articles, we selected chemical markers for the quality control purpose and evaluated analytical methods. Even though chromatographic and spectroscopic methods are major analytical techniques in the studies of these species, molecular approaches will also be important as used in food and medicine traceability. Only a little phytochemical study is available about most of the Amazonian species and some species such as açaí and andiroba have many reports on chemical constituents, but studies on biological activities of isolated compounds and sampling with geographical variation are limited.

  12. Micrometeorological Conditions at the ATTO - Site in the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsokankunku, Anywhere; Sörgel, Matthias; Acevedo, Otávio C.; Araùjo, Alessandro; Berger, Martina; de Abreu Sá, Leonardo D.; de Oliveira Sá, Marta; Dias, Nelson L.; Dlugi, Ralph; Manzi, Antonio O.; Oliveira, Pablo E. S.; Zelger, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The ATTO site is located in a pristine rainforest environment in the Amazon basin about 150 km north east of Manaus. The site is currently equipped with two walk-up towers (325 m and 80 m) and an 80 m high mast. The canopy height is about 35 m. A detailed description of the site and the ongoing measurements is given in the overview paper by Andreae et al. (2015). The 325 m tower was completed in 2015 and will be equipped in 2016. The 80 m walk-up tower is operational since 2012 with a full set of micrometeorological measurements (e.g. wind and temperature profile, radiation, and a few levels for flux measurements). Measurements of vertical profiles of wind velocity components, temperature, humidity, and energy fluxes, together with 3d sonic anemometer measurements at 150 m on the ATTO tower, are analysed to determine characteristics of momentum, heat and water vapour exchange. In addition, the day time influences of secondary circulation on energy fluxes is described, together with the interaction of these circulations with cloud development. The diurnal cycle of stability and the onset and development of convection is shown to be strongly dependent on the onset of cloud formation. Implications on trace gas transport are discussed.

  13. INSETICIDAL OILS FROM AMAZON PLANTS IN CONTROL OF FALL ARMYWORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANA CLÁUDIA VIEIRA DOS SANTOS

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential insecticidal of oils from southwestern Amazon plants against Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith, 1797 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae was investigated. Initial bioassays were performed with undiluted oils from 11 plant species. The efficacy of the oils was evaluated against eggs and third-instar caterpillars of S. frugiperda. The oils of Copaifera sp. (Leguminosae, Orbignya phalerata (Arecaceae, and Carapa guianensis (Meliaceae displayed a high efficacy against the caterpillars and were used in subsequent concentration-response bioassays, at concentrations established through preliminary tests. The highest nonlethal concentrations of oils and the lowest lethal concentrations were calculated. A completely randomized design was adopted in both bioassays. The LC50 of the oils varied from 7.50 to 60.84% (v/v. Copaifera sp. oil had the highest toxicity and was 6.84-fold more toxic than O. phalerata oil and 8.11-fold more toxic than Carapa guianensis oil. In general, oils from Copaifera sp., O. phalerata, and Carapa guianensis were effective in controlling S. frugiperda caterpillars under laboratory conditions, and are good candidates for use in integrated management programs of corn pests.

  14. Reshaping Text Data for Efficient Processing on Amazon EC2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Turcu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Text analysis tools are nowadays required to process increasingly large corpora which are often organized as small files (abstracts, news articles, etc.. Cloud computing offers a convenient, on-demand, pay-as-you-go computing environment for solving such problems. We investigate provisioning on the Amazon EC2 cloud from the user perspective, attempting to provide a scheduling strategy that is both timely and cost effective. We derive an execution plan using an empirically determined application performance model. A first goal of our performance measurements is to determine an optimal file size for our application to consume. Using the subset-sum first fit heuristic we reshape the input data by merging files in order to match as closely as possible the desired file size. This also speeds up the task of retrieving the results of our application, by having the output be less segmented. Using predictions of the performance of our application based on measurements on small data sets, we devise an execution plan that meets a user specified deadline while minimizing cost.

  15. Collecting response times using Amazon Mechanical Turk and Adobe Flash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simcox, Travis; Fiez, Julie A

    2014-03-01

    Crowdsourcing systems like Amazon's Mechanical Turk (AMT) allow data to be collected from a large sample of people in a short amount of time. This use has garnered considerable interest from behavioral scientists. So far, most experiments conducted on AMT have focused on survey-type instruments because of difficulties inherent in running many experimental paradigms over the Internet. This study investigated the viability of presenting stimuli and collecting response times using Adobe Flash to run ActionScript 3 code in conjunction with AMT. First, the timing properties of Adobe Flash were investigated using a phototransistor and two desktop computers running under several conditions mimicking those that may be present in research using AMT. This experiment revealed some strengths and weaknesses of the timing capabilities of this method. Next, a flanker task and a lexical decision task implemented in Adobe Flash were administered to participants recruited with AMT. The expected effects in these tasks were replicated. Power analyses were conducted to describe the number of participants needed to replicate these effects. A questionnaire was used to investigate previously undescribed computer use habits of 100 participants on AMT. We conclude that a Flash program in conjunction with AMT can be successfully used for running many experimental paradigms that rely on response times, although experimenters must understand the limitations of the method.

  16. Identification of Colletotrichum isolates from Capsicum chinense in Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, C V S; Matos, K S; de Albuquerque, D M C; Hanada, R E; da Silva, G F

    2017-06-29

    Chili pepper (Capsicum chinense) is a great economic important culture on the State of Amazonas, and it represents, approximately, a production of 1.9 thousand tons per year. It is one of the hosts of Colletotrichum genus in the North region of Brazil. The aim of the study was to differentiate and to identify isolates of Colletotrichum collected from C. chinense in Amazon. Molecular characterization, using RFLP-PCR, ERIC-PCR and ISSR, was carried out initially for screening of morphologically similar isolates. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses were performed using combined regions: Actin (ACT), glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) for the three isolates, INPA 2066, INPA 2286 and INPA 1858, plus superoxide dismutase (SOD2) for INPA 2066. We showed that the molecular markers were able to distinguish the isolates of Colletotrichum studied and these results were confirmed with the phylogenetic analyses, three different occurrences of Colletotrichum species (C. siamense, C. scovillei and C. brevisporum) causing anthracnose in C. chinense in the State of Amazonas. This study represents the first report of the species C. siamense and C. scovillei in this host in Brazil.

  17. Titling indigenous communities protects forests in the Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackman, Allen; Corral, Leonardo; Lima, Eirivelthon Santos; Asner, Gregory P

    2017-04-18

    Developing countries are increasingly decentralizing forest governance by granting indigenous groups and other local communities formal legal title to land. However, the effects of titling on forest cover are unclear. Rigorous analyses of titling campaigns are rare, and related theoretical and empirical research suggests that they could either stem or spur forest damage. We analyze such a campaign in the Peruvian Amazon, where more than 1,200 indigenous communities comprising some 11 million ha have been titled since the mid-1970s. We use community-level longitudinal data derived from high-resolution satellite images to estimate the effect of titling between 2002 and 2005 on contemporaneous forest clearing and disturbance. Our results indicate that titling reduces clearing by more than three-quarters and forest disturbance by roughly two-thirds in a 2-y window spanning the year title is awarded and the year afterward. These results suggest that awarding formal land titles to local communities can advance forest conservation.

  18. Sun Protection Belief Clusters: Analysis of Amazon Mechanical Turk Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago-Rivas, Marimer; Schnur, Julie B; Jandorf, Lina

    2016-12-01

    This study aimed (i) to determine whether people could be differentiated on the basis of their sun protection belief profiles and individual characteristics and (ii) explore the use of a crowdsourcing web service for the assessment of sun protection beliefs. A sample of 500 adults completed an online survey of sun protection belief items using Amazon Mechanical Turk. A two-phased cluster analysis (i.e., hierarchical and non-hierarchical K-means) was utilized to determine clusters of sun protection barriers and facilitators. Results yielded three distinct clusters of sun protection barriers and three distinct clusters of sun protection facilitators. Significant associations between gender, age, sun sensitivity, and cluster membership were identified. Results also showed an association between barrier and facilitator cluster membership. The results of this study provided a potential alternative approach to developing future sun protection promotion initiatives in the population. Findings add to our knowledge regarding individuals who support, oppose, or are ambivalent toward sun protection and inform intervention research by identifying distinct subtypes that may best benefit from (or have a higher need for) skin cancer prevention efforts.

  19. Hydrogeology of the Western Amazon Aquifer System (WAAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário, Fátima Ferreira do; Custodio, Emilio; Silva, Gerson Cardoso da, Jr.

    2016-12-01

    The Western Amazon Aquifer System (WAAS), as defined and proposed in the present work, encompasses an area of about 2.0·106 km2 located in the northwestern portion of South America. Published and unpublished data were used to define WAAS boundaries and main hydrogeologic characteristics. Petroleum industry data, environmental data, and other diverse thematic data were compiled for this study according to the data's origin. The analysis, treatment and integration of available data allowed us to define the WAAS as a multilayered aquifer system comprised of the Tertiary Solimões Aquifer System (SAS) and the Cretaceous Tikuna Aquifer System (TAS). The thick clay-rich basal strata of the SAS appear to confine the TAS. The SAS is widely used for both domestic and industrial purposes, providing good quality freshwater. The TAS has varying water quality: it contains freshwater near its recharge areas in the Sub-Andean fault belt zone, brackish to brine water in the Sub-Andean basins, and salty water in the Solimões Basin (Brazil). The interpretation and conclusions provided by an increasing understanding of the area's hydrogeology resulting from this work made it possible to propose an improved and new WAAS regional hydrogeologic conceptual model with data and descriptions not previously available. Some surprising results have been later confirmed as true by looking at unpublished reports, logs and field notes. Therefore, this work resulted in new findings and settled the basis for future works, especially for the poorly understood TAS.

  20. Lead exposure in indigenous communities of the Amazon basin, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anticona, Cynthia; Bergdahl, Ingvar A; Lundh, Thomas; Alegre, Yuri; Sebastian, Miguel San

    2011-12-01

    Since 2006, three studies have reported elevated levels of lead (Pb) among the indigenous population of the Corrientes river, in the Amazon basin of Peru. Due to the large evidence of environmental pollution related to oil exploitation in the area, this activity has been suggested as the source of exposure. This study aimed to evaluate Pb levels in the population and environment of two communities exposed and one community non-exposed to the oil exploitation activity. Blood lead levels (BLL) were determined by the instrument Leadcare. A comparison with the graphite furnace atomic absorption technique was performed in order to validate the Leadcare results. Environmental samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. Among 361 capillary samples, the mean BLL was 9.4 μg/dl. Mean BLL of the communities exposed (n=171, x¯=9.5 μg/dl) and non-exposed (n=190, x¯=9.2 μg/dl) to the oil activity were not significantly different. Pb levels in environmental samples were below the maximum permissible levels. The sources of exposure could not be identified. Elevated levels of Pb in the oil-non-exposed community pointed out at other sources not yet clarified. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  1. Local Participation in REDD+: Lessons from the Eastern Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Cromberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There are concerns that local people will not be genuinely involved in initiatives to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+. We analyzed local participation in the design of one REDD+ project in the eastern Brazilian Amazon, and assessed local hopes, worries and recommendations for the project through four community focus groups and interviews with 137 households at the site. Our results showed that only one-third of households interviewed (31% had enough information about the project to describe it accurately. Of those, the majority (60% hoped that the project would improve their incomes, followed by improving their agricultural production (33% and helping protect forests (26%. While increasing household incomes was the dominant hope, people’s recommendations revealed that they favored non-monetary forms of compensation over the direct cash payments included in the proponents’ package of incentives. Their main recommendation was that the project should help improve their production systems through access to technical assistance, machinery and training, while valuing local production systems (46%. Our study highlights the need for participation that goes beyond passive consultation with local people to develop REDD+ interventions that best reflect local knowledge, land use practices and aspirations.

  2. On the footprints of a major Brazilian Amazon earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALBERTO V. VELOSO

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Combining historical accounts and seismological studies, three hundred years of dormant information emerged as a source of the largest known seismic event that rocked Brazil since the beginning of our colonization. The probable epicenter location of the 1690 tremor lies on the left bank of the Amazon River, about 45 km downstream from the modern day Manaus. A year later, while passing this area, a missionary met witnesses of the tremor and observed remarkable changes in the topography and vegetation along the margin of the river. By 1692 another priest confirmed this event and the occurrence of large waves in the river, which led to the flooding of the Native Indians' terrains. The tremor spread seismic waves throughout the forest and shook indigenous constructions as far as one thousand kilometers away. A calculation of the seismic parameters shows an estimated magnitude of 7, a maximum intensity of IX MM and a felt area of about 2 million km2. Due to the long recurrence period for this type of tremor, the discovery of one of these events is valuable for seismic global intraplate studies. As for Brazil, it unravels the myth that the country was never hit by severe earthquakes.

  3. Biomass Change of the Landless Peasants' Settlements in Lower Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, S.; Ishimaru, K.

    2014-12-01

    Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes have been reported to occur over large areas in Legal Amazon due to the introduction of large-scale mechanized agriculture, extensive cattle ranching and uncontrolled slash-and-burn cultivation since the 1980s. Around the same time, movements which poor peoples or landless peasants settle into abandoned land have been very active in Brazil. In many cases, these people lack agricultural experiences to yield sufficient production for livelihoods. Thus, it leads to abandon the land and repeat forest clearance. In recent year, education by NGOs to these people encourage spreading of agroforestry which is a land use management system in which trees are grown around or among crops or pasture land. In this study, we specifically aimed at clarifying changes in LULC and these biomass using ground observation data, remotely-sensed LANDSAT data and GIS techniques. We focus on four different settlements: old-established settlement (around 30 years), established settlement (around 20 years), productive settlement (7 year) and unproductive settlement (7 years). These four settelements were located at Santa Barbará province, about 40 km northeast from the center of Belém, the Pará state capital, in the northern part of Brazil. We clarify that the biomass change varied according to whether the settlement are productive or not.

  4. Methane and Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Fluxes in Amazon Floodplains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melack, J. M.; MacIntyre, S.; Forsberg, B.; Barbosa, P.; Amaral, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Field studies on the central Amazon floodplain in representative aquatic habitats (open water, flooded forests, floating macrophytes) combine measurements of methane and carbon dioxide concentrations and fluxes to the atmosphere over diel and seasonal times with deployment of meteorological sensors and high-resolution thermistors and dissolved oxygen sondes. A cavity ringdown spectrometer is used to determine gas concentrations, and floating chambers and bubble collectors are used to measure fluxes. To further understand fluxes, we measured turbulence as rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy based on microstructure profiling. These results allow calculations of vertical mixing within the water column and of air-water exchanges using surface renewal models. Methane and carbon dioxide fluxes varied as a function of season, habitat and water depth. High CO2 fluxes at high water are related to high pCO2; low pCO2 levels at low water result from increased phytoplankton uptake. CO2 fluxes are highest at turbulent open water sites, and pCO2 is highest in macrophyte beds. Fluxes and pCH4 are high in macrophyte beds.

  5. Assessing Model Treatment of Drought Legacy Effects in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolus, H. R.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Schwalm, C.; Fisher, J. B.; Cook, R. B.; Fang, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Schaefer, K. M.; Wei, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events play an important and potentially lasting role in terrestrial carbon cycling and storage. In particular, satellite and in-situ measurements have shown that forest recovery time following severe drought can extend several years beyond the return to normal climate conditions. However, terrestrial ecosystem models generally do not account for the physiological mechanisms that cause these legacy effects and, instead, assume complete and rapid vegetation recovery from drought. Using a suite of fifteen land surface models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assess models' ability to capture legacy effects by analyzing the spatial and temporal extent of modeled vegetation response to the 2005 Amazon drought. We compare the simulated primary production and ecosystem exchange (GPP, NPP, NEE) to previous recovery-focused analysis of satellite microwave observations of canopy backscatter. Further, we evaluate the specific model characteristics that control the timescale and magnitude of simulated vegetation recovery from drought. Since climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme climate events, improving models' ability to simulate the legacy effects of these events will likely refine estimates of the land carbon sink and its interannual variability.

  6. Drought impacts on the Amazon forest: the remote sensing perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asner, Gregory P; Alencar, Ane

    2010-08-01

    Drought varies spatially and temporally throughout the Amazon basin, challenging efforts to assess ecological impacts via field measurements alone. Remote sensing offers a range of regional insights into drought-mediated changes in cloud cover and rainfall, canopy physiology, and fire. Here, we summarize remote sensing studies of Amazônia which indicate that: fires and burn scars are more common during drought years; hydrological function including floodplain area is significantly affected by drought; and land use affects the sensitivity of the forest to dry conditions and increases fire susceptibility during drought. We highlight two controversial areas of research centering on canopy physiological responses to drought and changes in subcanopy fires during drought. By comparing findings from field and satellite studies, we contend that current remote sensing observations and techniques cannot resolve these controversies using current satellite observations. We conclude that studies integrating multiple lines of evidence from physiological, disturbance-fire, and hydrological remote sensing, as well as field measurements, are critically needed to narrow our uncertainty of basin-level responses to drought and climate change.

  7. Nitrogen mass balance in the Brazilian Amazon: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinelli, L A; Pinto, A S; Nardoto, G B; Ometto, J P H B; Filoso, S; Coletta, L D; Ravagnani, E C

    2012-08-01

    The main purpose of this study is to perform a nitrogen budget survey for the entire Brazilian Amazon region. The main inputs of nitrogen to the region are biological nitrogen fixation occurring in tropical forests (7.7 Tg.yr(-1)), and biological nitrogen fixation in agricultural lands mainly due to the cultivation of a large area with soybean, which is an important nitrogen-fixing crop (1.68 Tg.yr(-1)). The input due to the use of N fertilizers (0.48 Tg.yr(-1)) is still incipient compared to the other two inputs mentioned above. The major output flux is the riverine flux, equal to 2.80 Tg.yr(-1) and export related to foodstuff, mainly the transport of soybean and beef to other parts of the country. The continuous population growth and high rate of urbanization may pose new threats to the nitrogen cycle of the region through the burning of fossil fuel and dumping of raw domestic sewage in rivers and streams of the region.

  8. Nitrogen turnover in drying sediments of an Amazon floodplain lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koschorreck, Matthias

    2005-05-01

    In the Amazon floodplain large areas are subject to annual cycles of drying and rewetting. The turnover of nitrogen in the periodically drying sediments is an important regulator of floodplain fertility. In the present study the transition of a lake sediment from flooded to dry conditions was studied with respect to microbial nitrogen turnover. Soil nitrogen pools, as well as the activity and abundance of denitrifying and nitrifying bacteria, were investigated during one dry season. During the first weeks after drying, most of the inorganic nitrogen vanished from the sediment. The process was inhibited by a nitrification inhibitor, showing that coupled nitrification-denitrification was responsible for the nitrogen loss. Assimilation by plants or microbes, as well as leaching, were not important mechanisms of nitrogen loss. During a period of only 10 days, 59% of the total denitrification and 94% of the total N2O emission during the dry period occurred. Cell numbers of denitrifiers were not correlated with activities. Denitrification was not correlated with other sediment variables but was regulated by the patchy distribution of reduced and oxidized zones in the uppermost centimeters of the sediment. This heterogeneity was probably introduced by the bioturbation of small insects, which was restricted to a rather short time period shortly after drying.

  9. THE EPIPHYTIC BRYOPHYTE FLORA OF THE COLOMBIAN AMAZON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAURA V. CAMPOS

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available An inventory of 384 plots on 64 trees, in four localities across the Colombian Amazon region (Amazonas, Caquetá, Putumayo, Vaupés, yielded 160 species of epiphytic bryophytes (116 of liverworts, 44 of mosses, in 64 genera and 26 families. Sampling was carried out in four non-seasonally flooded forests (Terra Firme, where bryophytes where collected from the base to the outer canopy, of 16 trees per locality. The flora is characterized by dominance of liverworts, especially Lejeuneaceae. The families with the highest number of records were Lejeuneaceae (55%, Calymperaceae (10%, Lepidoziaceae (8%, Octoblepharaceae (6% and Sematophyllaceae (5%. The most common genera in number of records were Cheilolejeunea (11%, Pycnolejeunea (8%, Archilejeunea (8% Ceratolejeunea (8% and Syrrhopodon (7%.Syrropodon and Lejeunea were the most species-rich genera, followed by Ceratolejeunea and Cheilolejeunea. In average, the localities had 102 species in sixteen phorophytes. In terms of species richness and composition there were no significant differences between the four localities.

  10. GENETIC CHARACTERIZATION OF A BOVINE BREED (TABAPUA UNDER ARTIFICIAL SELECTION LOCATED IN THE AMAZON REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ednaldo da Silva Filho

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Brazil currently has the biggest commercial bovine cattle population in the world. Several different breeds that come from Europe and India compose it. They are primarily used for dairy and meat production. In Brazil, several high quality genetic background cattle are kept in a condition known as pure breed, meaning no other animal of different genetic background is interbreeding with them and consequently, affecting their genetic variability. Hence, these cattle are apparently vulnerable to lose of their genetic variability by continuous interbreed. This scenario has encouraged this study to evaluate the genetic variability of one cattle type, known in Brazil as Tabapua breed, located at the Brazilian Amazon, by using DNA microsatellites loci as molecular markers. Blood samples were randomly taken from 60 animals and submitted to DNA extraction, followed by multiplex PCR, using 11 microsatellites primers recommended by International Society of Animal Genetics (ISAG for paternity test in bovine. PCR products were genotyped in an automated DNA sequencer and polymorphic loci were found. They presented the following data: Average allele number: 6.727±1.679; Average effective allele number: 3.772±1.266; Shannon index: 1.454±0.302; Average heterozygosis: 0.706±0.101. Polymorphic Informative Content (PIC varied from 0.452 to 0.815; Average Fis was -0.037±0.054. The probability for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was not significant (p>0.05 for all loci. The power of discrimination and power exclusion were >0.999 and >0.981 respectively, for PE1 (with offspring and their parental genotypes and PE2 (without one of the parental genotypes. The pure bovine breed Tabapua evaluated in this study showed significantly high genetic variability. Because Tabapua is a commercial breed, in which reproductive animals are selected for business, the high genetic variability can be linked to the high circulation of animals purchased for reproduction

  11. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...... optimization sets for corresponding optimization problems is useful in a power system context. Generating and evaluating such spacetime scenarios is difficult. While quite a number of proposals have appeared in the literature, a gap between methodological proposals and actual usage in operational and planning...... studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open...

  12. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    have accepted both functional foods and genetically modified foods. They have confidence in modern food production and believe they are well informed and have a realistic picture of how to produce modern foods. The last scenario 'Tight spending' is based on a lower disposable income and extensive......What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...

  13. Selecting Supersymmetric String Scenarios From Sparticle Spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Allanach, Benjamin C; Quevedo, Fernando

    2002-01-01

    We approach the following question: if supersymmetry is discovered, how can we select among different supersymmetric extensions of the Standard Model? In particular, we perform an analysis of the sparticle spectrum in low-energy string effective theories, asking which observables best distinguish various scenarios. We examine scenarios differing by the fundamental string scale and concentrate on GUT and intermediate scale models. We scan over all parameters (two goldstino angles, tan beta and the gravitino mass) in each scenario, finding ratios of sparticle masses that provide the maximum discrimination between them. The necessary accuracy for discrimination is determined in each case. We find that the required accuracy on various sparticle mass ratios is at the few percent level, a precision that may be achieved in future linear colliders. We place phenomenological constraints on the parameter space and determine the supersymmetric contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment.

  14. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  15. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...... events and uncertainties, especially on long-term horizons such as 25-50 years ahead. In order to deal with these uncertainties, complexities and long-term challenges as well as to influence developments pro-actively, scenario planning is increasingly applied in both policy making and knowledge brokerage....... Scenarios can reveal uncertainties, can help prepare for unexpected changes and highlight crucial decisions to be taken today. Scenarios can offer a clearer picture of the present and visions for the future, can help to identify key driving forces and their trends as well as as-sess potential outcomes...

  16. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...... with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...

  17. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  18. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  19. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  20. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  1. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  2. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  3. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  4. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  5. Chagas disease: from bush to huts and houses. Is it the case of the Brazilian amazon?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coura José Rodrigues

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Two of the major problems facing the Amazon - human migration from the other areas and uncontrolled deforestation - constitute the greatest risk for the establishment of endemic Chagas disease in this part of Brazil. At least 18 species of triatomines had been found in the Brazilian Amazon, 10 of them infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, associated with numerous wild reservoirs. With wide-range deforestation, wild animals will perforce be driven into other areas, with tendency for triatomines to become adapted to alternative food sources in peri and intradomicilies. Serological surveys and cross-sectional studies for Chagas disease, carried out in rural areas of the Rio Negro, in the Brazilian Amazon, showed a high level of seropositivity for T. cruzi antibodies. A strong correlation of seroreactivity with the contact of gatherers of piaçava fibers with wild triatomines could be evidenced.

  6. Validation and analysis of MOPITT CO observations of the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deeter, M. N.; Martínez-Alonso, S.; Gatti, L. V.; Gloor, M.; Miller, J. B.; Domingues, L. G.; Correia, C. S. C.

    2016-08-01

    We analyze satellite retrievals of carbon monoxide from the MOPITT (Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere) instrument over the Amazon Basin, focusing on the MOPITT Version 6 "multispectral" retrieval product (exploiting both thermal-infrared and near-infrared channels). Validation results based on in situ vertical profiles measured between 2010 and 2013 are presented for four sites in the Amazon Basin. Results indicate a significant negative bias in retrieved lower-tropospheric CO concentrations. The possible influence of smoke aerosol as a source of retrieval bias is investigated using collocated Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements at two sites but does not appear to be significant. Finally, we exploit the MOPITT record to analyze both the mean annual cycle and the interannual variability of CO over the Amazon Basin since 2002.

  7. Spectral tuning of Amazon parrot feather coloration by psittacofulvin pigments and spongy structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinbergen, Jan; Wilts, Bodo D; Stavenga, Doekele G

    2013-12-01

    The feathers of Amazon parrots are brightly coloured. They contain a unique class of pigments, the psittacofulvins, deposited in both barbs and barbules, causing yellow or red coloured feathers. In specific feather areas, spongy nanostructured barb cells exist, reflecting either in the blue or blue-green wavelength range. The blue-green spongy structures are partly enveloped by a blue-absorbing, yellow-colouring pigment acting as a spectral filter, thus yielding a green coloured barb. Applying reflection and transmission spectroscopy, we characterized the Amazons' pigments and spongy structures, and investigated how they contribute to the feather coloration. The reflectance spectra of Amazon feathers are presumably tuned to the sensitivity spectra of the visual photoreceptors.

  8. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in Eastern Amazon during the Rainy Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batista da Silva Ferreira, Douglas; Barreiros de Souza, Everaldo; Cavalcanti de Moraes, Bergson; Meira Filho, Luiz Gylvan

    2015-01-01

    Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) and composites analysis were employed on pentad data in order to investigate the tropical atmospheric-ocean patterns over the Atlantic Ocean and the spatial-temporal characteristics of the rainfall in eastern Amazon during the peak of the rainy season (February to April). The EOF results evidenced that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main rainfall-producing system in eastern Amazon during the rainy season. Conditions associated with the southward SST gradient in the intertropical Atlantic formed the dynamic patterns that favored the position of the ITCZ to south of the equator, thus explaining the predominance of positive precipitation anomalies in eastern Amazon, especially in the state of Maranhão and northeastern Pará during the February and April months. PMID:25793218

  9. Changes in the carbon cycle of Amazon ecosystems during the 2010 drought

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, Christopher [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA (United States); Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa [California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA (United States); Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos, E-mail: chris.potter@nasa.gov [Planetary Skin Institute, Silicon Valley, CA (United States)

    2011-07-15

    Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO{sub 2} uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon river basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to those for forests outside the main river floodplains.

  10. Mycotoxins and cyanogenic glycosides in staple foods of three indigenous people of the Colombian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Gonzalo J; Krska, Rudolf; Sulyok, Michael

    2015-01-01

    A study was conducted to determine the incidence and levels of mycotoxins in the main staple foods of three indigenous people of the Colombian Amazon. A total of 20 corn, 24 rice and 59 cassava samples were analysed by a multi-analyte liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method covering the major classes of mycotoxins. In addition, cassava samples were also analysed for cyanogenic glycosides. The indigenous Amazon communities tested are exposed to potentially carcinogenic mycotoxins (particularly aflatoxins), as well as other mycotoxins, mainly through the intake of locally grown corn. Citrinin content in this corn was unusually high and has not been reported elsewhere. Two cassava samples contained high levels of cyanogenic glycosides. It is strongly recommended not to grow corn in the Amazon but instead purchase it from vendors capable of guaranteeing mycotoxin levels below the maximum allowable concentration in Colombia.

  11. Environmental goods & services and rural livelihoods in the Congo and Brazilian Amazon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakkegaard, Riyong Kim

    Environmental goods and services are increasingly valued for their contributions of food, resources and incomes to rural livelihoods of the poor in the developing world. Resources from tropical forests not only support current consumption but also provide valuable safety nets where limited...... alleviation. Paper 3 analyses the income and incentive effects of conservation transfers and other transfers under various land use regulated settings in the Brazilian Amazon. It looks at the welfare implications of payments and potential spillover effects on land use above land use conditionalities attached...... households in the Brazilian Amazon, and compares this to actual current measures of agricultural income. It uncovers some basic household characteristics that can predictably determine levels of compensation required. Paper 5 is a theoretical piece using a case study from the Brazilian Amazon, on how full...

  12. Formative experience mediated by virtual learning environment: science and mathematics teachers’ education in the amazon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    France Fraiha Martins

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This article reports results of a qualitative research, in the narrative modality. We investigated the formative experiences of teachers of Mathematics and Science through distance learning in the Amazon region, experienced in a course through the Virtual Learning Environment (VLE. We investigated under what conditions this education experience was a catalyst for teachers’ reflections on the Amazonian context of teaching science and mathematics. By using Discursive Textual Analysis some categories e merged: graduating in the Amazon region: obstacles and confrontations; AVA and Technologies: meaning (s of the education experience and the impact of the experience in the perceptions of teachers’ practices and training. The analysis of the results reveals the obstacles to the training in this context. The dynamics experienced by the use of VLE technologies and of the teachers reverberated methodological insights regarding the use of technology in teaching practices, indicating also the VLE as an alternative of (self education on the Amazon reality

  13. Changes in the Carbon Cycle of Amazon Ecosystems During the 2010 Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christophera; Klooster, Steven; Hiatt, Cyrus; Genovese, Vanessa; Castilla-Rubino, Juan Carlos

    2011-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing was combined with the NASA-CASA carbon cycle simulation model to evaluate the impact of the 2010 drought (July through September) throughout tropical South America. Results indicated that net primary production (NPP) in Amazon forest areas declined by an average of 7% in 2010 compared to 2008. This represented a loss of vegetation CO2 uptake and potential Amazon rainforest growth of nearly 0.5 Pg C in 2010. The largest overall decline in ecosystem carbon gains by land cover type was predicted for closed broadleaf forest areas of the Amazon River basin, including a large fraction of regularly flooded forest areas. Model results support the hypothesis that soil and dead wood carbon decomposition fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere were elevated during the drought period of 2010 in periodically flooded forest areas, compared to forests outside the main river floodplains.

  14. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  15. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  16. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  17. Saving the Other Amazon: Changing Understandings of Nature and Wilderness among Indigenous Leaders in the Ecuadorian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliet S. Erazo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This article examines a new set of policies embraced by indigenous leaders in the Upper Napo region of the Ecuadorian Amazon, driven, in part, by a growing appreciation for “wilderness” —large areas where humans exercise a very light touch. In the past few years, leaders have pursued wilderness conservation initiatives while simultaneously promoting petroleum extraction in their own backyards. Both political positions run counter to those pursued in previous decades, when opposition to both oil development and strict forms of conservation within their territory was strong. To address this reversal, I trace some of the development interventions and North-South collaborations that have contributed to the emergence of “nature” as a meaningful imaginary for Amazonian indigenous leaders and for a new generation of young people, drawing connections to William Cronon’s critical analysis of how wilderness conservation became a priority in the United States. I conclude that more than two decades of conservationist interventions in the Upper Napo region have led to some largely unintended consequences, as Amazonian leaders increasingly subscribe to Northern environmentalists’ romanticization of “the Amazon” as a wild place, one that therefore must be distant from the places where they work and live.

  18. Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiao-Peng; Huang, Chengquan; Saatchi, Sassan S; Hansen, Matthew C; Townshend, John R

    2015-01-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.

  19. Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Peng Song

    Full Text Available Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+ is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1 and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1 respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1, ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1. Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1•yr(-1 from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such

  20. Dynamic reorganization of Amazon forest structure and canopy illumination from tree and branch fall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, D. C.; Leitold, V.; Longo, M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Keller, M. M.; Cook, B.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon forests are dynamic ecosystems that store and cycle globally-significant amounts of atmospheric CO2. Forest inventory plots and atmospheric CO2 measurements integrate long-term and large-scale changes in Amazon forests, respectively, but neither approach captures the dynamic reorganization of Amazon forests at fine spatial and temporal scales necessary to refine estimates of the Amazon forest carbon sink. Here, we used multi-temporal airborne lidar data to characterize changes in canopy structure and illumination in the Brazilian Amazon. Annualized rates of canopy turnover varied four-fold across study sites (1.18 to 4.63% yr-1). Branch fall events (4 - 25 m2) were widespread and accounted for one-third of total canopy turnover. Branch and tree fall events created intermediate or low illumination conditions in 80% of canopy turnover areas, regardless of size, as taller neighbors partially shaded areas with canopy height losses. Importantly, canopy losses also redistributed light to adjacent canopy trees, doubling the canopy area influenced by turnover dynamics. Linking multi-temporal lidar measurements with field data on tree mortality and coarse woody debris, our analysis provides a critical link between existing forest inventory data and next generation ecosystem models with full three-dimensional representation of tropical forest structure and canopy dynamics. Current ecosystem models do not capture the influence of forest structure on canopy illumination, dynamism in canopy light availability over short (1-4 yr) time scales, or contributions from branch falls to canopy turnover. These mechanisms alter Amazon forest productivity over time scales relevant for carbon cycle science and climate mitigation efforts.