BALTEX water and energy budgets in the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roads, J. [Experimental Climate Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Raschke, E. [Meteorologisches Institut der Universitaet Hamburg (Germany); Rocke, B. [Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht (Germany)

2002-07-01

Water and energy budgets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Dept. of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis II (NCEPRII) are described for the Baltic Sea catchment and sea (BALTEX). Annually, NCEPRII shows 0.7 mm d{sup -1} of atmospheric moisture converged into the land region with a corresponding runoff of 0.7 mm d{sup -1} to the Baltic Sea, consistent with observations. However, precipitation is too low; evaporation is too large; runoff does not have an appropriate winter minimum and spring maximum; the assimilation and surface nudging are too large. Important hydroclimatic characteristics can still be discerned. During summer, atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, evaporation, and surface and atmospheric radiative heating increase and the atmospheric radiative cooling, dry static energy convergence decrease. There are large contrasts between the sea and land; during winter sensible heat is transferred from the sea to the atmosphere and sea evaporation and precipitation are largest during the fall and winter; somewhat opposite behavior occurs over land. (orig.)

Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

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K. Miyazaki

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Air sea exchange of fluxes and Indian monsoon from satellite data

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Muraleedharan, P.M.; Pankajakshan, T.; Sundaram, S.

Temperature (Reynolds), Sea Surface Wind Speed and Integrated water vapor (from SSMI sensor onboard DMSP satellite series), mean sea level pressure (from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data). Evaporation zones are identified over the western tropical Indian Ocean where...

Validation of the Suomi NPP VIIRS Ice Surface Temperature Environmental Data Record

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Yinghui Liu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of the surface temperature is critical to understanding and forecasting Arctic climate change; as surface temperature integrates changes in the surface energy budget. The sea-ice surface temperature (IST has been measured with optical and thermal infrared sensors for many years. With the IST Environmental Data Record (EDR available from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP and future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS satellites; we can continue to monitor and investigate Arctic climate change. This work examines the quality of the VIIRS IST EDR. Validation is performed through comparisons with multiple datasets; including NASA IceBridge measurements; air temperature from Arctic drifting ice buoys; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS IST; MODIS IST simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO; and surface air temperature from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Results show biases of −0.34; −0.12; 0.16; −3.20; and −3.41 K compared to an aircraft-mounted downward-looking pyrometer; MODIS; MODIS SNO; drifting buoy; and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis; respectively; root-mean-square errors of 0.98; 1.02; 0.95; 4.89; and 6.94 K; and root-mean-square errors with the bias removed of 0.92; 1.01; 0.94; 3.70; and 6.04 K. Based on the IceBridge and MODIS results; the VIIRS IST uncertainty (RMSE meets or exceeds the JPSS system requirement of 1.0 K. The product can therefore be considered useful for meteorological and climatological applications.

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

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Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-08-01

Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (Re-1), supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO) contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC). The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Solar cycle signatures in the NCEP equatorial annual oscillation

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H. G. Mayr

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Our analysis of temperature and zonal wind data (1958 to 2006 from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR reanalysis (Re-1, supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, shows that the hemispherically symmetric 12-month equatorial annual oscillation (EAO contains spectral signatures with periods around 11 years. Moving windows of 44 years show that, below 20 km, the 11-year modulation of the EAO is phase locked to the solar cycle (SC. The spectral features from the 48-year data record reveal modulation signatures of 9.6 and 12 years, which produce EAO variations that mimic in limited altitude regimes the varying maxima and minima of the 10.7 cm flux solar index. Above 20 km, the spectra also contain modulation signatures with periods around 11 years, but the filtered variations are too irregular to suggest that systematic SC forcing is the principal agent.

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Science.gov (United States)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Simple multiple regression model for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

, Wang J, Roy J, Dennis J (1996) The NCEP=NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 77: 437–71 Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushner Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B (1998) Analysis of global sea-surface temperature: 1856–1991. J Geophys Res...

Extreme Winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob

2009-01-01

wind. We examined extreme winds in different places where the strongest wind events are weather phenomena of different scales, including the mid-latitude lows in Denmark, channelling winds in the Gulf of Suez, typhoons in the western North Pacific, cyclones in the Caribbean Sea, local strong winds...

Evaluation of ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE R2 and CFSR Reanalysis precipitation Data using Gauge Observation over Ethiopia for a period of 33 years

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Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The vital demand of reliable climatic and hydrologic data of fine spatial and temporal resolution triggered the employment of reanalysis datasets as a surrogate in most of the hydrological modelling exercises. This study examines the performance of four widely used reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE R2, MERRA and CFSR, in reproducing the spatio-temporal characteristics of observed daily precipitation of different stations spread across Ethiopia, East Africa. The appropriateness of relying on reanalysis datasets for hydrologic modelling, climate change impact assessment and regional modelling studies is assessed using various statistical and non-parametric techniques. ERA-Interim is found to exhibit higher correlation and least root mean square error values with observed daily rainfall, which is followed by CFSR and MERRA in most of the stations. The variability of daily precipitation is better captured by ERA, CFSR and MERRA, while NCEP-DOE R2 overestimated the spread of the precipitation data. While ERA overestimates the probability of moderate rainfall, it is seemingly better in capturing the probability of low rainfall. CFSR captures the overall distribution reasonable well. NCEP-DOE R2 appears to be outperforming others in capturing the probabilities of higher magnitude rainfall. Climatological seasonal cycle and the characteristics of wet and dry spells are compared further, where ERA seemingly replicates the pattern more effectively. However, observed rainfall exhibits higher frequency of short wet spells when compared to that of any reanalysis datasets. MERRA relatively underperforms in simulating the wet spell characteristics of observed daily rainfall. CFSR overestimates the mean wet spell length and mean dry spell length. Spatial trend analysis indicates that the northern and central western Ethiopia show increasing trends, whereas the Central and Eastern Ethiopia as well as the Southern Ethiopia stations show either no trend

Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

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Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

2017-04-01

A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

Comparação de produtos de radiação solar incidente à superfície para a América do Sul Product comparison of solar radiation incident surface for South America

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Lucía Iracema Chipponelli Pinto

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Para algumas aplicações meteorológicas, o conhecimento da radiação solar incidente à superfície (Sin é muito importante. Métodos convencionais de medida deste fluxo são pontuais e, portanto, representativos de pequenas áreas. Por outro lado, os satélites meteorológicos possibilitam uma cobertura regular de todo o globo terrestre, proporcionando estimativas de fluxos radiativos sobre grandes áreas com resolução espacial do sensor (apenas alguns quilômetros. Além disso, produtos de reanálise fornecem estimativas alternativas de Sin, que precisam ser adequadamente validadas. Este trabalho compara quatro bancos de dados de radiação solar incidente para a América do Sul: três produtos provenientes de reanálise (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 e Eta/CPTEC e o produto gerado pelo algoritmo GL1.2, que produz estimativas da Sin a partir do conjunto de imagens do satélite GOES. Os resultados mostram que os campos de radiação solar incidente dos produtos de reanálise do NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 e as estimativas do satélite GOES apresentam valores médios mensais bem próximos para todos os biomas e bacias estudados. Já a reanálise do Eta/CPTEC apresentou valores bem mais elevados para à radiação sobre a América do Sul, tanto para a média anual como nas médias mensais analisadas.For some meteorological applications, knowledge of incoming solar radiation at surface level (Sin is very important. Conventional measurements of this flux by individual sensors are representative of small areas only. On the other hand, meteorological satellites allow a regular cover of the entire globe, providing estimates of radiative fluxes over wide areas, within the spatial resolution of the sensor (a few km. In addition, reanalysis products provide alternative Sin estimates that must be adequately validated. This work compares four long-term Sin databases for South America: three reanalysis products (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 e Eta/CPTEC and the database produced by

Changes in atmospheric circulation between solar maximum and minimum conditions in winter and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae Nyung

2008-10-01

variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has a qualitatively similar structure but with less variability in the Asian monsoon region which is displaced eastward of its observed position. In both the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the GISS GCM, the negative anomalies associated with the NAM in the Euro-Atlantic and Aleutian island regions are enhanced in the solar minimum conditions, though the results are not statistically significant. The difference of the downward propagation of NAM between solar maximum and solar minimum is shown with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. For the winter NAM, a much greater fraction of stratospheric circulation perturbations penetrate to the surface in solar maximum conditions than in minimum conditions. This difference is more striking when the zonal wind direction in the tropics is from the west: when equatorial 50 hPa winds are from the west, no stratospheric signals reach the surface under solar minimum conditions, while over 50 percent reach the surface under solar maximum conditions. This work also studies the response of the tropical circulation to the solar forcing in combination with different atmospheric compositions and with different ocean modules. Four model experiments have been designed to investigate the role of solar forcing in the tropical circulation: one with the present day (PD) greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, one with the preindustrial (PI) conditions, one with the doubled minimum solar forcing, and finally one with the hybrid-isopycnic ocean model (HYCOM). The response patterns in the tropical humidity and in the vertical motion due to solar forcing are season dependent and spatially heterogeneous. The tropical humidity response from the model experiments are compared with the corresponding differences obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with all years and with non-ENSO years. Both the model and the reanalysis consistently show that the specific humidity is significantly greater in the

Synoptic Storms in the North Atlantic in the Atmospheric Reanalysis and Scatterometer-Based Wind Products

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Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Bourassa, M. A.

2016-12-01

The study compares and analyses the characteristics of synoptic storms in the Subpolar North Atlantic over the time period from 2000 through 2009 derived from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-based gridded wind products. The analysis is performed for ocean 10-m winds derived from the following wind data sets: NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (NCEPR2), NCAR/CFSR, Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) version 1, Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product versions 1.1 and recently released version 2.0 prepared by the Remote Sensing Systems, and QuikSCAT. A cyclone tracking algorithm employed in this study for storm identification is based on average vorticity fields derived from the wind data. The study discusses storm characteristics such as storm counts, trajectories, intensity, integrated kinetic energy, spatial scale. Interannal variability of these characteristics in the data sets is compared. The analyses demonstrates general agreement among the wind data products on the characteristics of the storms, their spatial distribution and trajectories. On average, the NCEPR2 storms are more energetic mostly due to large spatial scales and stronger winds. There is noticeable interannual variability in the storm characteristics, yet no obvious trend in storms is observed in the data sets.

Empirical-statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, Marlis; MöLg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-06-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term, atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to air temperature and specific humidity, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (northern Cordillera Blanca). The ESD modeling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses and a double cross-validation scheme for model evaluation. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modeling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice using both single-field and mixed-field predictors. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day. The forecast skill largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8. The mixed-field predictors perform better than the single-field predictors. The ESD model shows added value, at all time scales, against simpler reference models (e.g., the direct use of reanalysis grid point values). The ESD model forecast 1960-2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type.

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

An assessment of TropFlux and NCEP air-sea fluxes on ROMS simulations over the Bay of Bengal region

Science.gov (United States)

Dey, Dipanjan; Sil, Sourav; Jana, Sudip; Pramanik, Saikat; Pandey, P. C.

2017-12-01

This study presents an assessment of the TropFlux and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis air-sea fluxes in simulating the surface and subsurface oceanic parameters over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region during 2002-2014 using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). The assessment has been made by comparing the simulated fields with in-situ and satellite observations. The simulated surface and subsurface temperatures in the TropFlux forced experiment (TropFlux-E) show better agreement with the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis (RAMA) and Argo observations than the NCEP forced experiment (NCEP-E). The BoB domain averaged sea surface temperature (SST) simulated in the NCEP-E is consistently cooler than the satellite SST, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.79 °C. Moreover, NCEP-E shows a limitation in simulating the observed seasonal cycle of the SST due to substantial underestimation of the pre-monsoon SST peak. These limitations are mostly due to the lower values of the NCEP net heat flux. The seasonal and interannual variations of SST in the TropFlux-E are better comparable to the observations with correlations and skills more than 0.80 and 0.90 respectively. However, SST is overestimated during summer monsoon periods mainly due to higher net heat flux. The superiority of TropFlux forcing over the NCEP reanalysis can also be seen when simulating the interannual variabilities of the magnitude and vertical extent of Wyrtki jets at two equatorial RAMA buoy locations. The jet is weaker in the NCEP-E relative to the TropFlux-E and observations. The simulated sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) from both the experiments are able to capture the regions of positive and negative SSHA with respect to satellite-derived altimeter data with better performance in the TropFlux-E. The speed of the westward propagating Rossby wave along 18°N in the TropFlux-E is found to be about 4.7 cm/s, which is close to

Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Craig S.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Davis, Sean; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Wright, Corwin J.

2017-12-01

Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon), aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979-2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979-1998) and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999-2014). There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25) have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from TOVS to ATOVS observations

Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the Reanalysis and in-situ observed data

Science.gov (United States)

Shulgina, T.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.

2009-04-01

At present numerous data archives which include meteorological observations as well as climate processes modeling data are available for Earth Science specialists. Methods of mathematical statistics are widely used for their processing and analysis. In many cases they represent the only way of quantitative assessment of the meteorological and climatic information. Unified set of analysis methods allows us to compare climatic characteristics calculated on the basis of different datasets with the purpose of performing more detailed analysis of climate dynamics for both regional and global levels. The report presents the results of comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature behavior for the Northern Eurasia territory for the period from 1979 to 2004 based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data and observation data obtained from meteorological stations of the former Soviet Union. Statistical processing of atmosphere temperature data included analysis of time series homogeneity of climate indices approved by WMO, such as "Number of frost days", "Number of summer days", "Number of icing days", "Number of tropical nights", etc. by means of parametric methods of mathematical statistics (Fisher and Student tests). That allowed conducting comprehensive research of spatio-temporal features of the atmosphere temperature. Analysis of the atmosphere temperature dynamics revealed inhomogeneity of the data obtained for large observation intervals. Particularly, analysis performed for the period 1979 - 2004 showed the significant increase of the number of frost and icing days approximately by 1 day for every 2 years and decrease roughly by 1 day for 2 years for the number of summer days. Also it should be mentioned that the growth period mean temperature have increased by 1.5 - 2° C for the time period being considered. The usage of different Reanalysis datasets in conjunction with in-situ observed

NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), for 1979 to Present

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Project is a reanalysis of historical observations using a 32-km version of the National Centers for Environmental...

Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. S. Long

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon, aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979–2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979–1998 and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999–2014. There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25 have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from

The Dependency between the Arabian Peninsula Wet Events and Sea Level Pressure Patterns during Spring Season

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Raj, Jerry

2014-01-01

This work investigates the relationships between regional extreme wet events in the Arabian Peninsula during the spring season (MAM) and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, S-mode principal components were computed

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Symbolic Dynamics of Reanalysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, J. W.; Dickens, P. M.

2003-12-01

Symbolic dynamics1 is the study of sequences of symbols belonging to a discrete set of elements, the most commmon example being a sequence of ones and zeroes. Often the set of symbols is derived from a timeseries of a continuous variable through the introduction of a partition function--a process called symbolization. Symbolic dynamics has been used widely in the physical sciences; a geophysical example being the application of C1 and C2 complexity2 to hourly precipitation station data3. The C1 and C2 complexities are computed by examining subsequences--or words--of fixed length L in the limit of large values of L. Recent advances in information theory have led to techniques focused on the growth rate of the Shannon entropy and its asymptotic behavior in the limit of long words--levels of entropy convergence4. The result is a set of measures one can use to quantify the amount of memory stored in the sequence, whether or not an observer is able to synchronize to the sequence, and with what confidence it may be predicted. These techniques may also be used to uncover periodic behavior in the sequence. We are currently applying complexity theory and levels of entropy convergence to gridpoint timeseries from the NCAR/NCEP 50-year reanalysis5. Topics to be discussed include: a brief introduction to symbolic dynamics; a description of the partition function/symbolization strategy; a discussion of C1 and C2 complexity and entropy convergence rates and their utility; and example applications of these techniques to NCAR/NCEP 50-reanalyses gridpoint timeseries, resulting in maps of C1 and C2 complexities and entropy convergence rates. Finally, we will discuss how these results may be used to validate climate models. 1{Hao, Bai-Lin, Elementary Symbolic Dynamics and Chaos in Dissipative Systems, Wold Scientific, Singapore (1989)} 2{d'Alessandro, G. and Politi, A., Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 1609-1612 (1990).} 3{Elsner, J. and Tsonis, A., J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 400-405 (1993).} 4

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

Monsoon and cyclone induced wave climate over the near shore waters off Puduchery, south western Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Glejin, J.; SanilKumar, V.; Nair, T.M.B.

. Reanalysis data, NCEP / NCAR (Kalnay et al. 1996), provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ at 10 m height with a temporal resolution of 6 hour intervals is used to analyze the wind pattern...

Impact of global warming on cyclonic storms over north Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.

., Reynolds, R., Roy, Jenne. & Dennis, Joseph., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77(3)(1996) 437 – 471. 7 Smith, T.M. & Reynolds, R.W., Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997), J. Climate, 17(2004) 2466...

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

year (Arabian Sea) and 0.030°/year (Bay of Bengal). The above alarming results are based on sixty years (1948–2007) of daily temperature and wind data extracted from CDAS-NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. TG based on ERA-40 data also ...

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution ...

Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel)and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa,Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam)in the north Indian Ocean.

Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Fujiwara

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 ... Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with ... storm surges and also it affects the offshore marine operations. Several studies were ...

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

Interannual Variability in the Meridional Transport of Water Vapor

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah L.; Salstein, David A.; Rosen, Richard D.

2000-01-01

The zonal-mean meridional transport of water vapor across the globe is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis for 1948-97. The shape of the meridional profile of the climatological mean transport closely resembles that of previous mean climate descriptions, but values tend to be notably larger than in climatologies derived from radiosonde-only-based analyses. The unprecedented length of the NCEP-NCAR dataset invites a focus on interannual variations in the zonal-mean moisture transport, and these results for northern winter are highlighted here. Although interannual variability in the transport is typically small at most latitudes, a significant ENSO signal is present, marked by a strengthening of water vapor transports over much of the winter hemisphere during warm events. Because of an increase in tropical sea surface temperatures and in the frequency of warm events relative to cold events in the latter half of the 50-yr record, this interannual signal projects onto an overall trend toward enhanced meridional moisture transports in the global hydrological cycle.

A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndt, H

2001-07-01

The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

Atmospheric and oceanic excitation of decadal-scale Earth orientation variations

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Richard S.; Fukumori, Ichiro; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2005-09-01

The contribution of atmospheric wind and surface pressure and oceanic current and bottom pressure variations during 1949-2002 to exciting changes in the Earth's orientation on decadal timescales is investigated using an atmospheric angular momentum series computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project and an oceanic angular momentum series computed from a near-global ocean model that was forced by surface fluxes from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Not surprisingly, since decadal-scale variations in the length of day are caused mainly by interactions between the mantle and core, the effect of the atmosphere and oceans is found to be only about 14% of that observed. More surprisingly, it is found that the effect of atmospheric and oceanic processes on decadal-scale changes in polar motion is also only about 20% (x component) and 38% (y component) of that observed. Therefore redistribution of mass within the atmosphere and oceans does not appear to be the main cause of the Markowitz wobble. It is also found that on timescales between 10 days and 4 years the atmospheric and oceanic angular momentum series used here have very little skill in explaining Earth orientation variations before the mid to late 1970s. This is attributed to errors in both the Earth orientation observations prior to 1976 when measurements from the accurate space-geodetic techniques became available and to errors in the modeled atmospheric fields prior to 1979 when the satellite era of global weather observing systems began.

Environmental Composites for Bomb Cyclones of the Western North Atlantic in Reanalysis, 1948-2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, R.; Sheridan, S. C.

2017-12-01

"Bomb" cyclones represent a small subset of mid-latitude cyclones characterized by rapid intensification and frequently are associated with extreme weather conditions along the eastern coast of North America. Like other extreme phenomena, bomb cyclone predictions are prone to error leading to inadequate or untimely hazard warnings. The rare nature of bomb cyclones and the uniqueness of their evolutions has made it difficult for researchers to make meaningful generalizations on bomb cyclone events. This paper describes bomb cyclone climatology for the western North Atlantic, using data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis for 1948-2016, and uses a synoptic climatological analysis to relate these bombs to their associated atmospheric environments. A self-organizing map (SOM) of 300-hPa geopotential height tendency is created to partition the regional atmospheric environment. Thermodynamic fields are contrasted by each 300-hPa geopotential height tendency pattern for both bomb and non-bomb events in composite difference maps. The SOM patterns most significantly associated with western North Atlantic bomb cyclogenesis are characterized by both strongly and weakly negative height tendencies along the eastern United States. In both cases, these patterns exhibit strong meridional flow, a distinction marked by the weakening and breaking down of the polar vortex in the boreal Winter. The composite maps for each pattern show the mean differences in low-mid level ascent and near surface thermodynamics for bomb environments contrasted with non-bomb environments, resulting in diverse spatiotemporal distributions of bombs in the western North Atlantic.

Evaluation of the hydrological cycle of MATCH driven by NCEP reanalysis data: comparison with GOME water vapor measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines two key parameters of the hydrological cycle, water vapor (WV and precipitation rates (PR, as modelled by the chemistry transport model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data (NRA. For model output evaluation we primarily employ WV total column data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME on ERS-2, which is the only instrument capable measuring WV on a global scale and over all surface types with a substantial data record from 1995 to the present. We find that MATCH and NRA WV and PR distributions are closely related, but that significant regional differences in both parameters exist in magnitude and distribution patterns when compared to the observations. We also find that WV residual patterns between model and observations show remarkable similarities to residuals observed in the PR when comparing MATCH and NRA output to observations comprised by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP. We conclude that deficiencies in model parameters shared by MATCH and NRA, like in the surface evaporation rates and regional transport patterns, are likely to lead to the observed differences. Monthly average regional differences between MATCH modelled WV columns and the observations can be as large as 2 cm, based on the analysis of three years. Differences in the global mean WV values are, however, below 0.1 cm. Regional differences in the PR between MATCH and GPCP can be above 0.5 cm per day and MATCH computes on average a higher PR than what has been observed. The lower water vapor content of MATCH is related to shorter model WV residence times by up to 1 day as compared to the observations. We find that MATCH has problems in modelling the WV content in regions of strong upward convection like, for example, along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, where it appears to be generally too dry as compared to the observations. We

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bedia

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

Atmospheric circulation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Surkova, Galina V.; Arkhipkin, Victor S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2013-12-01

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961-2000) and future (2046-2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961-2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961-2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21st century.

Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

Science.gov (United States)

Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

2014-12-01

Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

The NASA Reanalysis Ensemble Service - Advanced Capabilities for Integrated Reanalysis Access and Intercomparison

Science.gov (United States)

Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

2017-12-01

NASA's efforts to advance climate analytics-as-a-service are making new capabilities available to the research community: (1) A full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) comprising monthly means data from multiple reanalysis data sets, accessible through an enhanced set of extraction, analytic, arithmetic, and intercomparison operations. The operations are made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib; (2) A cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables. This near real-time capability enables advanced technologies like Spark and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files; and (3) A WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation systems such as ESGF. The Reanalysis Ensemble Service includes the following: - New API that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services with sample queries - A Docker-ready RES application to deploy across platforms - Extended capabilities that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, standard deviation, and ensemble averages - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses including basic sub-setting and arithmetic operations (e.g., avg, sum, max, min, var, count, anomaly) - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset in addition to, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JMA JRA-55 and NOAA/ESRL 20CR… - A Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism designed for client use cases that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive scenarios and personalized project management - Supporting analytic services for NASA GMAO Forward Processing datasets - Basic uncertainty quantification services that combine heterogeneous ensemble products with comparative observational products (e

Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven

2004-01-01

The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Li, Yu; Jiang, Tingchen; San Liang, X.

2018-05-01

In this study, we evaluated the effects of springtime Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) on the Tibetan Plateau's role as atmospheric heat source (AHS) in summer. The SST data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) and the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 33 years (from 1979 to 2011) were used to analyze the relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the Tibetan Plateau's AHS in summer, using the approaches that include correlation analysis, and lead-lag analysis. Our results show that some certain strong oceanic SSTs affect the summer plateau heat, specially finding that the early spring SSTs of the Indian Ocean significantly affect the plateau's ability to serve as a heat source in summer. Moreover, the anomalous atmospheric circulation and transport of water vapor are related to the Plateau heat variation.

The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cavicchia, Leone [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); Ca' Foscari University, Venice (Italy); Storch, Hans von [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg (Germany)

2012-11-15

Medicanes, strong mesoscale cyclones with tropical-like features, develop occasionally over the Mediterranean Sea. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea and the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to study systematically the multidecadal statistics of sub-synoptic medicanes. Our goal is to assess the long-term variability and trends of medicanes, obtaining a long-term climatology through dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In this paper, we examine the robustness of this method and investigate the value added for the study of medicanes. To do so, we performed several climate mode simulations with a high resolution regional atmospheric model (CCLM) for a number of test cases described in the literature. We find that the medicanes are formed in the simulations, with deeper pressures and stronger winds than in the driving global NCEP reanalysis. The tracks are adequately reproduced. We conclude that our methodology is suitable for constructing multi-decadal statistics and scenarios of current and possible future medicane activities. (orig.)

Large differences in the diabatic heat budget of the tropical UTLS in reanalyses

OpenAIRE

J. S. Wright; S. Fueglistaler

2013-01-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: MERRA, ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-25/JCDAS, and NCEP/NCAR. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including la...

Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2012-06-15

While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

Towards closure of regional heat budgets in the North Atlantic using Argo floats and surface flux datasets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. C. Wells

2009-04-01

Full Text Available The upper ocean heat budget (0–300 m of the North Atlantic from 20°–60° N is investigated using data from Argo profiling floats for 1999–2005 and the NCEP/NCAR and NOC surface flux datasets. Estimates of the different terms in the budget (heat storage, advection, diffusion and surface exchange are obtained using the methodology developed by Hadfield et al. (2007a, b. The method includes optimal interpolation of the individual profiles to produce gridded fields with error estimates at a 10°×10° grid box resolution. Closure of the heat budget is obtained within the error estimates for some regions – particularly the eastern subtropical Atlantic – but not for those boxes that include the Gulf Stream. Over the whole range considered, closure is obtained for 13 (9 out of 20 boxes with the NOC (NCEP/NCAR surface fluxes. The seasonal heat budget at 20–30° N, 35–25° W is considered in detail. Here, the NCEP based budget has an annual mean residual of −55±35 Wm⁻² compared with a NOC based value of −4±35 Wm⁻². For this box, the net heat divergence of 36 Wm⁻² (Ekman=−4 Wm⁻², geostrophic=11 Wm⁻², diffusion=29 Wm⁻² offsets the net heating of 32 Wm⁻² from the NOC surface heat fluxes. The results in this box are consistent with an earlier evaluation of the fluxes using measurements from research buoys in the subduction array which revealed biases in NCEP but good agreement of the buoy values with the NOC fields.

Global Climatology of the Coastal Low-Level Wind Jets using different Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Semedo, Alvaro; Cardoso, Rita M.

2016-04-01

Coastal Low-Level Jets (henceforth referred to as "coastal jets" or simply as CLLJ) are low-tropospheric mesoscale wind features, with wind speed maxima confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), typically bellow 1km. Coastal jets occur in the eastern flank of the semi-permanent subtropical mid-latitude high pressure systems, along equatorward eastern boundary currents, due to a large-scale synoptic forcing. The large-scale synoptic forcing behind CLLJ occurrences is a high pressure system over the ocean and a thermal low inland. This results in coastal parallel winds that are the consequence of the geostrophic adjustment. CLLJ are found along the California (California-Oregon) and the Canary (Iberia and Northeastern Africa) currents in the Northern Hemisphere, and along the Peru-Humboldt (Peru-Chile), Benguela (Namibia) and Western Australia (West Australia) currents in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arabian Sea (Oman CLLJ), the interaction between the high pressure over the Indian Ocean in summer (Summer Indian Monsoon) and the Somali (also known as Findlater) Jet forces a coastal jet wind feature off the southeast coast of Oman. Coastal jets play an important role in the regional climates of the mid-latitude western continental regions. The decrease of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the coast due to upwelling lowers the evaporation over the ocean and the coast parallel winds prevents the advection of marine air inshore. The feedback processes between the CLLJ and upwelling play a crucial role in the regional climate, namely, promoting aridity since the parallel flow prevents the intrusion of moisture inland, and increasing fish stocks through the transport of rich nutrient cold water from the bottom. In this study, the global coastal low-level wind jets are identified and characterized using an ensemble of three reanalysis, the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP Climate Forecast

Air Sea Interaction Over the Indian Ocean During the Contrasting Monsoon Years 2002 and 2003

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.; Fennig, K.; Pai, S.; Schulz, J.

dataset ? HOAPS II (http://www.hoaps.zmaw.de). More details can be had from Jost et al., [2002], Grassl et al., [2000]. The specific humidity and zonal wind were obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis [Kalnay et al., 1996] website ftp://ftp.cdc... in Environmental Sciences) Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, from their website http://www.cdc.noaa.gov [Gruber and Krueger, 1984]. 3. Results [7] Krishnan et al. [2003] have studied the influence of positive SST anomalies over...

Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.;

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump

Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Jiang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Preceding the El Niño Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Y.; Zhang, R.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

Composite analysis from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets over the period 1948-2007 indicates that stronger East Asian winter monsoons (EAWM) and stronger Australian summer monsoons (ASM) generally co-exist in boreal winters preceding the onset of El Niño, although the EAWM tend to be weak after 1990, probably because of the decadal shift of EAWM and the change in El Niño events from cold-tongue type to warm-pool type. The anomalous EAWM and ASM enhance surface westerlies over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTP). It is proposed that the enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP prior to El Niño onset are generally associated with the concurrent anomalous EAWM and ASM. A simple analytical atmospheric model is constructed to test the hypothesis that the emergence of enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP can be linked to concurrent EAWM and ASM anomalies. Model results indicate that when anomalous northerlies from the EAWM converge with anomalous southerlies from the ASM, westerly anomalies over the WTP are enhanced. This result provides a possible explanation of the co-impact of the EAWM and the ASM on the onset of El Niño through enhancing the surface westerly over the WTP.

Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)

Science.gov (United States)

Rai, Archana; Saha, Subodh Kumar

2018-01-01

The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This study focuses on the annual mean energy fluxes and tries to link it with the systematic cold biases in the 2 m air temperature, particularly over the land regions. The imbalance in the long term mean global averaged energy fluxes are also evaluated. The global averaged imbalance at the surface and at the TOA is found to be 0.37 and 6.43 Wm-2, respectively. It is shown that CFSv2 overestimates the land surface albedo, particularly over the snow region, which in turn contributes to the cold biases in 2 m air temperature. On the other hand, surface albedo is highly underestimated over the coastal region around Antarctica and that may have contributed to the warm bias over that oceanic region. This study highlights the need for improvements in the parameterization of snow/sea-ice albedo scheme for a realistic simulation of surface temperature and that may have implications on the global energy imbalance in the model.

Empirical downscaling of atmospheric key variables above a tropical glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, M.; Kaser, G.; Mölg, T.; Juen, I.; Wagnon, P.

2009-04-01

Glaciers in the outer tropical Cordillera Blanca (Peru, South America) are of major socio-economic importance, since glacier runoff represents the primary water source during the dry season, when little or no rainfall occurs. Due to their location at high elevations, the glaciers moreover provide important information about climate change in the tropical troposphere, where measurements are sparse. This study targets the local reconstruction of air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed above the surface of an outer tropical glacier from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as large scale predictors. Since a farther scope is to provide input data for process based glacier mass balance modelling, the reconstruction pursues a high temporal resolution. Hence an empirical downscaling scheme is developed, based on a few years' time series of hourly observations from automatic weather stations, located at the glacier Artesonraju and nearby moraines (Northern Cordillera Blanca). Principal component and multiple regression analyses are applied to define the appropriate spatial downscaling domain, suitable predictor variables, and the statistical transfer functions. The model performance is verified using an independent data set. The best predictors are lower tropospheric air temperature and specific humidity, at reanalysis model grid points that represent the Bolivian Altiplano, located in the South of the Cordillera Blanca. The developed downscaling model explaines a considerable portion (more than 60%) of the diurnal variance of air temperature and specific humidity at the moraine stations, and air temperature above the glacier surface. Specific humidity above the glacier surface, however, can be reconstructed well in the seasonal, but not in the required diurnal time resolution. Wind speed can only be poorly determined by the large scale predictors (r² lower than 0.3) at both sites. We assume a complex local interaction between valley and glacier wind system to be the main

A comparison of extreme rainfall characteristics in the Brazilian Amazon derived from two gridded data sets and a national rain gauge network

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Robin T.; Bulhoes Mendes, Carlos Andre; Costa Buarque, Diogo

2010-07-01

Two issues of particular importance for the Amazon watershed are: whether annual maxima obtained from reanalysis and raingauge records agree well enough for the former to be useful in extending records of the latter; and whether reported trends in Amazon annual rainfall are reflected in the behavior of annual extremes in precipitation estimated from reanalyses and raingauge records. To explore these issues, three sets of daily precipitation data (1979-2001) from the Brazilian Amazon were analyzed (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, and records from the raingauge network of the Brazilian water resources agency - ANA), using the following variables: (1) mean annual maximum precipitation totals, accumulated over one, two, three and five days; (2) linear trends in these variables; (3) mean length of longest within-year "dry" spell; (4) linear trends in these variables. Comparisons between variables obtained from all three data sources showed that reanalyses underestimated time-trends and mean annual maximum precipitation (over durations of one to five days), and the correlations between reanalysis and spatially-interpolated raingauge estimates were small for these two variables. Both reanalyses over-estimated mean lengths of dry period relative to the mean length recorded by the raingauge network. Correlations between the trends calculated from all three data sources were small. Time-trends averaged over the reanalysis grid-squares, and spatially-interpolated time trends from raingauge data, were all clustered around zero. In conclusion, although the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 gridded data-sets may be valuable for studies of inter-annual variability in precipitation totals, they were found to be inappropriate for analysis of precipitation extremes.

Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Piani

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon, to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.

Multidecadal change of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean associated with AMO and PDO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronika Nikolaevna Maslova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to analysis of the cold half-year (October to March frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with the global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Firstly, climatic conditions in the North Atlantic-European region during positive and negative phases of these global oscillations were shown using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1948 - 2016 and data of the NASA GISS Atlas of Exratropical Strom Tracks in 1961 - 1998. Mean monthly values / anomalies (composites for equal periods of the negative and positive AMO and PDO phases were calculated and compared. The results of the study support the idea that the Pacific and Atlantic influence on the climatic (multidecadal scale is realized via change of the large-scale fields of the North Atlantic anomalies typical for the interannual scale. Then spatial distribution of the frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region was obtained using global NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets on 1000 hPa geopotential height in 1948 - 2013. It was shown that during the positive AMO phase, frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean was higher by absolute values in November to March over the Tyrrhenian and Ionic Seas and lower over the Anatolian peninsula. During the negative PDO phase, frequency of cyclones over the Anatolian peninsula in January to March is significantly higher than in the positive PDO phase.

Rainy Days in the New Arctic: A Comprehensive Look at Precipitation from 8 Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic plays an important role in the fresh water budget, and is the primary control of snow accumulation on sea ice. However, Arctic precipitation from reanalysis is highly uncertain due to differences in the atmospheric physics and use/approaches of data assimilation and sea ice concentrations across the different products. More specifically, yearly cumulative precipitation in some regions can vary by 100-150 mm across reanalyses. This creates problems for those modeling snow depth on sea ice, specifically for use in deriving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In recent years, this new Arctic has become warmer and wetter, and evaporation from the ice-free ocean has been increasing, which leads to the question: is more precipitation falling and is more of this precipitation rain? This could pose a big problem for model and remote sensing applications and studies those modeling snow accumulation because rain events will can melt the existing snow pack, reduce surface albedo, and modify the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux via snow densification. In this work we compare precipitation (both snow and rain) from 8 different reanalysis: MERRA, MERRA2, NCEP-R1, NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, ERA-5, ASR and JRA-55. We examine the annual, seasonal, and regional differences and compare with buoy data to assess discrepancies between products during observed snowfall and rainfall events. Magnitudes and frequencies of these precipitation events are evaluated, as well as the "residual drizzle" between reanalyzes. Lastly, we will look at whether the frequency and magnitude of "rainy days" in the Arctic have been changing over recent decades.

Assessing Hydrological and Energy Budgets in Amazonia through Regional Downscaling, and Comparisons with Global Reanalysis Products

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2014-12-01

Although current global reanalyses provide reasonably accurate large-scale features of the atmosphere, systematic errors are still found in the hydrological and energy budgets of such products. In the tropics, precipitation is particularly challenging to model, which is also adversely affected by the scarcity of hydrometeorological datasets in the region. With the goal of producing downscaled analyses that are appropriate for a climate assessment at regional scales, a regional spectral model has used a combination of precipitation assimilation with scale-selective bias correction. The latter is similar to the spectral nudging technique, which prevents the departure of the regional model's internal states from the large-scale forcing. The target area in this study is the Amazon region, where large errors are detected in reanalysis precipitation. To generate the downscaled analysis, the regional climate model used NCEP/DOE R2 global reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and assimilated NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHed precipitation (CMORPH), available at 0.25-degree resolution, every 3 hours. The regional model's precipitation was successfully brought closer to the observations, in comparison to the NCEP global reanalysis products, as a result of the impact of a precipitation assimilation scheme on cumulus-convection parameterization, and improved boundary forcing achieved through a new version of scale-selective bias correction. Water and energy budget terms were also evaluated against global reanalyses and other datasets.

Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

2010-01-01

Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

ANALYSIS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

徐国强; 朱乾根

2003-01-01

With NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data and SST for 1998, the paper investigates the features of summer monsoon low-frequency oscillation (LFO) over the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that SCS summer monsoon onset is enhanced because of its LFO. Low-frequency (LF) low-level convergence (divergence) region of SCS is in the LF positive (negative) rainfall area. LFO of the SCS region migrates from south to north in the meridian and from west to east in zonal direction. LF divergence of SCS is vertically compensating to each other between high and low level.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

KAUST Repository

Attada, Raju

2017-07-04

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Hindcast of breaking waves and its impact at an island sheltered coast, Karwar

Science.gov (United States)

Dora, G. Udhaba; Kumar, V. Sanil

2018-01-01

Variability in the characteristics of depth-induced wave breakers along a non-uniform coastal topography and its impact on the morpho-sedimentary processes is examined at the island sheltered wave-dominated micro-tidal coast, Karwar, west coast of India. Waves are simulated using the coupled wind wave model, SWAN nested in WAVEWATCH III, forced by the reanalysis winds from different sources (NCEP/NCAR, ECMWF, and NCEP/CFSR). Impact of the wave breakers is evaluated through mean longshore current and sediment transport for various wave energy conditions across different coastal morphology. Study revealed that the NCEP/CFSR wind is comparatively reasonable in simulation of nearshore waves using the SWAN model nested by 2D wave spectra generated from WAVEWATCH III. The Galvin formula for estimating mean longshore current using the crest wave period and the Kamphuis approximation for longshore sediment transport is observed realistically at the sheltered coastal environment while the coast interacts with spilling and plunging breakers.

Comparison and evaluation of gridded radiation products across northern Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troy, T J; Wood, E F

2009-01-01

Northern Eurasia is a region experiencing documented changes in temperature and large-scale streamflow, yet little attention has been focused on the large-scale energy budgets over the region. We compare station data and gridded radiation products from reanalysis and remote sensing to evaluate the radiative fluxes across northern Eurasia. On annual timescales, we find that the downward shortwave radiation products, with the exception of those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, compare well with long-term station observations, but that this agreement breaks down with smaller timescales and for downward longwave and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. Of the six gridded products, the Surface Radiation Budget data set performs the best as compared to observations. Differences in radiative fluxes are on the order of 15-20 W m -2 on seasonal timescales, averaged across the region, with larger variations spatially and at smaller timescales. The resulting uncertainty in net radiation has implications for climate and hydrologic analyses that seek to understand changes in northern Eurasia climate and its hydrologic cycle.

Avaliação de mudanças na frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da América do Sul em projeções do clima futuro Changes in frequency of frontal systems over southern of South America in projections of future climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelen Martins Andrade

2012-06-01

Full Text Available A frequência de sistemas frontais sobre o sul da América do Sul identificada na reanálise do NCEP/NCAR é comparada com as simulações dos modelos GFDL e Hadley e projetadas no clima futuro. As análises para identificar casos de sistemas frontais foram feitas em três regiões que cobrem áreas do Brasil, Uruguai, Paraguai e Argentina. Esta análise foi realizada com o fim de investigar as características de eventos extremos no clima presente e em projeções do clima futuro. Para o clima presente observou-se que os modelos analisados simularam bem as características sinóticas dos sistemas frontais. No entanto, quando se compara a frequência de ocorrência das frentes entre a reanálise e as simulações, observa-se que os modelos GFDL e Hadley superestimam seu número e apenas o GFDL consegue reproduzir a variabilidade mensal. O modelo Hadley superestima ainda mais em relação ao NCEP e GFDL no clima presente. A tendência positiva no número de frentes observada na área 3 (65ºW-60ºW, 33ºS-38ºS nos resultados da reanálise não é simulada pelos modelos. Quando os casos mais intensos são selecionados, o modelo GFDL é o que superestima mais o número de sistemas frontais. Os dois modelos indicam aumento na frequência de sistemas frontais no futuro nas três áreas, porém em menor proporção na área 3.The frequency of frontal systems reaching the south of South America is compared with reanalysis NCEP/NCAR and results of GFDL and Hadley models for the future climate. Three regions were analyzed to identify the frontal systems, in areas of Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. The following criteria were used: increase of sea surface pressure, reduction of the temperature and change of the meridional wind at 850hPa, in two consecutive days. Selected cases with temperature drop above five degrees, considered the most intense, were also analyzed. For the present climate it was observed that the models simulated well the

Regional improvement of global reanalyses by means of a new long-term Mediterranean hindcasted precipitation dataset: a first study over the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. G. Sotillo

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Generation of a Mediterranean long-term (1958-2001 homogeneous high resolution environmental database constituted the main objective whitin the HIPOCAS Project. The high number of parameters included in this database allows a complete characterization of Mediterranean storms. In this paper, the HIPOCAS precipitation reliability over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands is evaluated against long-term in-situ observations from Iberia. In order to provide a more complete study, comparisons of the HIPOCAS field with NCEP/NCAR and ERA global reanalysis show the important improvement in the characterisation of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast.

PATRONES ATMOSFÉRICOS SIMULADOS EN EL CLIMA PRESENTE Y FUTURO ASOCIADOS AL DESCENSO DE TEMPERATURA EN EL SUDESTE DE SUDAMERICA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cintia Rabelo da.Rocha Repinaldo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The atmospheric features associated with extreme cold events, identified by the temperature drop in the winter, in three regions of southeastern South America are analyzed with reanalysis data from NCEP / NCAR as well as simulations of the coupled ocean-atmosphere HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.0 models for the present and CMIP3 A2 future scenario. In the present climate, GFDL-CM2.0 represents better the reanalysis fields, being more coherent with the post-frontal high pressure and the 0°C and better the reanalysis fields, being more coherent with the post-frontal high pressure and the 0°C and10°C isotherms. For the future climate, GFDL-CM2.0 projects weakening of temperature anomalies and lower advance of the extreme events of temperature drop in direction to the Equator, while the HadCM3 projection also indicates lower latitudinal range, but in general, higher intensity of these events.

Annual cycle of the upper-ocean circulation and properties in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ocean dynamics and its influence on ocean properties in the tropical western Indian Ocean. Surface winds and heat fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis forced the model (Model_NCEP) with initial and ...

Monitoring Multidecadal satellite earth observation of soil moisture products through land surface reanalysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.; Balsamo, G.; Sabatar, J; de Rosnay, P.; Isaksen, I; Brocca, L; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.

2013-01-01

Soil moisture from ERA-Land, a revised version of the land surface components of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), is used to monitor at a global scale the consistency of a new microwave based multi-satellite surface soil moisture date set

Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

2018-02-01

Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

Interdecadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon northward propagation and influences on summer precipitation over East China

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Z.; Yang, S.; He, J.; Li, J.; Liang, J.

2008-08-01

The interdecadal variation of northward propagation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and summer precipitation in East China have been investigated using daily surface rainfall from a dense rain gauge network in China for 1957 2001, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis, and Global Mean Sea Level Pressure Dataset (GMSLP2) from Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Results in general show a consistent agreement on the interdecadal variability of EASM northward propagations. However, it appears that the interdecadal variation is stronger in NCEP than in ECMWF and CRU datasets. A newly defined normalized precipitation index (NPI), a 5-day running mean rainfall normalized with its standard deviation, clearly depicts the characteristics of summer rainbelt activities in East China in terms of jumps and durations during its northward propagations. The EASM northward propagation shows a prominent interdecadal variation. EASM before late 1970s had a rapid northward advance and a northern edge beyond its normal position. As a result, more summer rainfall occurred for the North China rainy season, Huaihe-River Mei-Yu, and South China Mei-Yu. In contrast, EASM after late 1970s had a slow northward movement and a northern edge located south of its normal position. Less summer precipitation occurred in East China except in Yangtze River basin. The EASM northernmost position (ENP), northernmost intensity (ENI), and EASM have a complex and good relationship at interdecadal timescales. They have significant influences on interdecadal variation of the large-scale precipitation anomalies in East China.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul Characterization of extreme sea level events in Santos and their correspondence with the NCEP model reanalysis in the southwest of the South Atlantic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Martins Campos

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente, enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente. Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.This work aims to identify the synoptic scale atmospheric influence over the ocean for extreme events of storm surges events in the Southeastern Brazilian coast. Time series of sea surface height at the Port of Santos as well as wind and surface pressure from the NCEP reanalysis model enclosing the South Atlantic, for period 1951-1990, were used. Seasonal variability and typical evolution of atmospheric systems were found to be associated with extreme events, very relevant for applications on prognostics and warnings to authorities. Autumn and winter are seasons with the highest occurrence of positive extreme events (40.2 % and 30.8 % respectively and the spring and winter are the ones with negative extreme events (47.2 % and 32.3 % respectively. The results show that the storm surges events depend on low pressure systems

An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

KAUST Repository

Xu, Zhongfeng

2012-09-01

An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

Spatial pattern recognition of extreme temperature climatology: assessing HadCM3 simulations via NCEP reanalyses over Europe Análise do padrão espacial da climatologia de temperaturas extremas: avaliando simulações do HadCM3 via reanálises do NCEP para a Europa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. S. Lucio

2007-08-01

Full Text Available This article attempts to quantify the spatial uncertainties associated with extreme temperature’s response, by assessing data derived from climate model. This is undertaken by a comparison of the spatial pattern of a long-term time-series aggregation (1960/61-1989/90 for extreme temperatures simulated by a particular GCM (the UK Met Office - Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3 to that of the USA NCAR NCEP Reanalyses, which are considered as ‘truth’, over the MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes - EU Project spatial domain. Since evaluation of models is crucial to assessing future scenarios, the aim of this study is to investigate whether the extreme values predicted by the HadCM3 climate model can simulate those produced by NCEP Reanalyses, assuming that the extremes of both models are realizations of the same spatial stochastic process. To get more useful information about the uncertainties surrounding spatial climate projection, one also has to analyze the pattern of temperature extremes in terms of their anomalies. A common technical issue in the assessment of numerical spatial models is based on the Principal Components Analysis and Bayesian Classification for spatial pattern recognition. These methodologies are very important and useful for guiding an evolutionary statistical model-building process. This study leads to the conclusion that the HadCM3 Simulations do not realistically reproduce the NCEP Reanalyses, despite the fact that the climatology of extremes has demonstrated very similar spatial patterns. It is likely therefore that such instability may persist in the future.Este artigo é um ensaio na quantificação de incertezas espaciais associadas à resposta de temperaturas extremas, avaliando dados derivados de um determinado modelo de clima. Isto é empreendido por uma comparação entre o padrão espacial de séries temporais agregadas de longo termo (1960/61-1989/90 para temperaturas extremas simuladas de um

Net sea–air CO2 flux uncertainties in the Bay of Biscay based on the choice of wind speed products and gas transfer parameterizations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Otero

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The estimation of sea–air CO2 fluxes is largely dependent on wind speed through the gas transfer velocity parameterization. In this paper, we quantify uncertainties in the estimation of the CO2 uptake in the Bay of Biscay resulting from the use of different sources of wind speed such as three different global reanalysis meteorological models (NCEP/NCAR 1, NCEP/DOE 2 and ERA-Interim, one high-resolution regional forecast model (HIRLAM-AEMet, winds derived under the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP project, and QuikSCAT winds in combination with some of the most widely used gas transfer velocity parameterizations. Results show that net CO2 flux estimations during an entire seasonal cycle (September 2002–September 2003 may vary by a factor of ~ 3 depending on the selected wind speed product and the gas exchange parameterization, with the highest impact due to the last one. The comparison of satellite- and model-derived winds with observations at buoys advises against the systematic overestimation of NCEP-2 and the underestimation of NCEP-1. In the coastal region, the presence of land and the time resolution are the main constraints of QuikSCAT, which turns CCMP and ERA-Interim in the preferred options.

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, Erik; Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2014-01-01

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

2017-03-01

Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

Snow Climatology of Arctic Sea Ice: Comparison of Reanalysis and Climate Model Data with In Situ Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Chevooruvalappil Chandran, B.; Pittana, M.; Haas, C.

2015-12-01

Snow on sea ice is a critical and complex factor influencing sea ice processes. Deep snow with a high albedo and low thermal conductivity inhibits ice growth in winter and minimizes ice loss in summer. Very shallow or absent snow promotes ice growth in winter and ice loss in summer. The timing of snow ablation critically impacts summer sea ice mass balance. Here we assess the accuracy of various snow on sea ice data products from reanalysis and modeling comparing them with in situ measurements. The latter are based on the Warren et al. (1999) monthly climatology derived from snow ruler measurements between 1954-1991, and on daily snow depth retrievals from few drifting ice mass balance buoys (IMB) with sufficiently long observations spanning the summer season. These were compared with snow depth data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP), the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4), and the Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2). Results are quite variable in different years and regions. However, there is often good agreement between CanESM2 and IMB snow depth during the winter accumulation and spring melt periods. Regional analyses show that over the western Arctic covered primarily with multiyear ice NCEP snow depths are in good agreement with the Warren climatology while CCSM4 overestimates snow depth. However, in the Eastern Arctic which is dominated by first-year ice the opposite behavior is observed. Compared to the Warren climatology CanESM2 underestimates snow depth in all regions. Differences between different snow depth products are as large as 10 to 20 cm, with large consequences for the sea ice mass balance. However, it is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis and model snow depths due to a lack of extensive, continuous in situ measurements.

Off-shore Wind Atlas of the Central Aegean Sea: A simple comparison of NCEP/NCAR RE-analysis data, QuickSCAT and ENVISAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) by use of Wind Atlas Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bingöl, Ferhat; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Karagali, Ioanna

2012-01-01

model results). Unfortunately all of these methods are still under development and do not provide data acceptable for bankable wind assessment reports. On the other hand, they give good indications of the geographical distribution of the wind resources and that is very useful for decision making...... to high costs, but with the new developments in floating turbine design, it seems that offshore wind parks in deep waters will also be a possibility in the future. Whether on-shore or offshore, the first step of a site assessment is to estimate the wind resources. Usually well-known conventional methods...... are used to produce estimates of wind resources by means of at least one year data from a single or multiple points on the terrain. This criterion is dicult to satisfy in offshore locations where measurements are costly and sparse. Therefore other methods are required (e.g satellite imagery or reanalysis...

Mapping near-surface air temperature, pressure, relative humidity and wind speed over Mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Tao; Zheng, Xiaogu; Dai, Yongjiu; Yang, Chi; Chen, Zhuoqi; Zhang, Shupeng; Wu, Guocan; Wang, Zhonglei; Huang, Chengcheng; Shen, Yan; Liao, Rongwei

2014-09-01

As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal resolution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km×1 km. The approach comprises two steps: (1) fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; (2) apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.

Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 1961-2003

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

You, Qinglong [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou (China); Aguilar, Enric [Universitat Rovirai Virgili de Tarragona, Climate Change Research Group, Geography Unit, Tarragona (Spain); Pepin, Nick [University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Portsmouth (United Kingdom); Fluegel, Wolfgang-Albert [Friedrich-Schiller University Jena, Department of Geoinformatics, Jena (Germany); Yan, Yuping [National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Xu, Yanwei; Huang, Jie [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang, Yongjun [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China)

2011-06-15

negative magnitudes. This is inconsistent with changes of water vapor flux calculated from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Large scale atmospheric circulation changes derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis grids show that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent have contributed to the changes in climate extremes in China. (orig.)

Paracas dust storms: Sources, trajectories and associated meteorological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Briceño-Zuluaga, F.; Castagna, A.; Rutllant, J. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Caquineau, S.; Sifeddine, A.; Velazco, F.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardich, J.

2017-09-01

Dust storms that develop along the Pisco-Ica desert in Southern Peru, locally known as ;Paracas; winds have ecological, health and economic repercussions. Here we identify dust sources through MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery and analyze HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particles Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model trajectories and dispersion patterns, along with concomitant synoptic-scale meteorological conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR). Additionally, surface pressure data from the hourly METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) at Arica (18.5°S, 70.3°W) and Pisco (13.7°S, 76.2°W) were used to calculate Alongshore (sea-level) Pressure Gradient (APG) anomalies during Paracas dust storms, their duration and associated wind-speeds and wind directions. This study provides a review on the occurrence and strength of the Paracas dust storms as reported in the Pisco airfield for five-year period and their correspondence with MODIS true-color imagery in terms of dust-emission source areas. Our results show that most of the particle fluxes moving into the Ica-Pisco desert area during Paracas wind events originate over the coastal zone, where strong winds forced by steep APGs develop as the axis of a deep mid-troposphere trough sets in along north-central Chile. Direct relationships between Paracas wind intensity, number of active dust-emission sources and APGs are also documented, although the scarcity of simultaneous METAR/MODIS data for clearly observed MODIS dust plumes prevents any significant statistical inference. Synoptic-scale meteorological composites from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data show that Paracas wind events (steep APGs) are mostly associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic conditions in northern Chile, that can be attributed to cold air advection associated with the incoming trough. Compared to the MODIS images, HYSPLIT outputs were able

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu Hailong; Liu Xiangcui [State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang Minghua [Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States); Lin Wuyin, E-mail: lhl@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Atmospheric Sciences Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

2011-07-15

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents-key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific-from 5 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 170 deg. E to 150 deg. W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

NCEP Central Operations

Science.gov (United States)

) NCO Organizational Chart NOAA's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System is known as Climate Climate Prediction Climate Archives Weather Safety Storm Ready NOAA Central Library Photo Library NCO's MISSION * Execute the NCEP operational model suite - Create climate, weather, ocean, space and

Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Bohua; Kinter, James L. [George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, and Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center (suite 605), NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-01-15

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

Connection of stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part I: methodology and composite life cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Bohua; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kinter, James L.; Wu, Zhaohua; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and its association with the interannual variability in the stratosphere and troposphere, as well as in tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), are examined in the context of a QBO life cycle. The analysis is based on the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, radiosonde observations at Singapore, and other observation-based datasets. Both reanalyses reproduce the QBO life cycle and its associated variability in the stratosphere reasonably well, except that some long-term changes are detected only in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In order to separate QBO from variability on other time scales and to eliminate the long-term changes, a scale separation technique [Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD)] is applied to the raw data. The QBO component of zonal wind anomalies at 30 hPa, extracted using the EEMD method, is defined as a QBO index. Using this index, the QBO life cycle composites of stratosphere and troposphere variables, as well as SSTA, are constructed and examined. The composite features in the stratosphere are generally consistent with previous investigations. The correlations between the QBO and tropical Pacific SSTA depend on the phase in a QBO life cycle. On average, cold (warm) SSTA peaks about half a year after the maximum westerlies (easterlies) at 30 hPa. The connection of the QBO with the troposphere seems to be associated with the differences of temperature anomalies between the stratosphere and troposphere. While the anomalies in the stratosphere propagate downward systematically, some anomalies in the troposphere develop and expand vertically. Therefore, it is possible that the temperature difference between the troposphere and stratosphere may alter the atmospheric stability and tropical deep convection, which modulates the Walker circulation and SSTA in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

1993-08-01

A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

2012-04-15

This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

NCEP Internal Office Notes

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and its predecessors have produced internal publications, known as Office Notes, since the mid-1950's. In...

Linking entropy flow with typhoon evolution: a case-study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, C; Xu, H; Liu, Y

2007-01-01

This paper is mainly aimed at investigating the relationship of entropy flow with an atmospheric system (typhoon), based on the observational analyses covering its whole life-cycle. The formula for calculating entropy flow is derived starting with the Gibbs relation with data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that: (i) entropy flow characteristics at different vertical layers of the system are heterogeneous with predominant negative entropy flow in the large portion of the troposphere and positive ones at upper levels during its development; (ii) changes in the maximum surface wind velocity or the intensity of a typhoon are synchronous with the total entropy flow around the typhoon centre and its neighbourhood, suggesting that the growth of a severe atmospheric system relies greatly upon the negative entropy flow being strong enough, and that entropy flow analysis might provide a particular point of view and a powerful tool to understand the mechanism responsible for the life-cycle of an atmospheric system and associated weather events; and (iii) the horizontal pattern of negative entropy flow near the surface might contain some significant information conducive to the track forecast of typhoons

Comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments of the MACCii global reanalysis near surface ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Katragou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Inness, Antje; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf; Zerefos, Christos

2014-05-01

In this work we evaluate near surface ozone concentrations of the MACCii global reanalysis using measurements from the EMEP and AIRBASE database. The eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003-2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system (Inness et al., 2013). The study mainly focuses in the differences between the assimilated and the non-assimilated experiments and aims to identify and quantify any improvements achieved by adding data assimilation to the system. Results are analyzed in eight European sub-regions and region-specific Taylor plots illustrate the evaluation and the overall predictive skill of each experiment. The diurnal and annual cycles of near surface ozone are evaluated for both experiments. Furthermore ozone exposure indices for crop growth (AOT40), human health (SOMO35) and the number of days that 8-hour ozone averages exceeded 60ppb and 90ppb have been calculated for each station based on both observed and simulated data. Results indicate mostly improvement of the assimilated experiment with respect to the high near surface ozone concentrations, the diurnal cycle and range and the bias in comparison to the non-assimilated experiment. The limitations of the comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments for near surface ozone are also discussed.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

South Baltic wind atlas. South Baltic offshore wind energy regions project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pena, A.; Hahmann, A.; Hasager, C.B.; Bingoel, F.; Karagali, I.; Badger, J.; Badger, M.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

2011-05-15

A first version of a wind atlas for the South Baltic Sea has been developed using the WRF mesoscale model and verified by data from tall Danish and German masts. Six different boundary-layer parametrization schemes were evaluated by comparing the WRF results to the observed wind profiles at the masts. The WRF modeling was done in a nested domain of high spatial resolution for 4 years. In addition the long-term wind statistics using the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis data were performed during 30 years to provide basis for a long-term adjustment of the results and the final WRF results include a weighting for the long-term trends variability in the South Baltic Sea. Observations from Earth observing satellites were used to evaluate the spatial resolution of the WRF model results near the surface. The QuikSCAT and the WRF results compared well whereas the Envisat ASAR mean wind map showed some variation to the others. The long-term analysis revealed that the South Baltic Sea has a spatially highly variable wind climate during the 30-years. (Author)

Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

Comparison of measured and simulated wind speed data in the North Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winterfeldt, J. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

2008-11-06

A systematic investigation and comparison of near-surface marine wind speed obtained from in situ and satellite observations, atmospheric reanalyses and regional atmospheric hindcasts with reanalysis driven regional climate models (RCMs) is presented for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. Wind speed retrievals from two remote sensing data sets, namely QuikSCAT and the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) data set, are found to give good representation of observed near-surface wind speed. The value of the root mean squared error (RMSE) for all co-located HOAPS and in situ wind speed data is 2 m/s, while it is 1.8 m/s for QuikSCAT demonstrating that QuikSCAT's mission requirement of providing wind speed with an RMSE of 2 m/s is met for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. QuikSCAT shows a slightly better agreement with observed instantaneous wind speed and its frequency distribution than HOAPS. In contrast, HOAPS wind speed is available for a much longer period and is therefore the more suitable product for climatic studies or investigations of trends in wind speed. The capability of two state-of-the-art RCMs (with and without spectral nudging applied) to add value for surface marine wind fields in comparison to the reanalysis wind speed forcing is assessed by the comparison with in situ wind speed observations in the eastern North Atlantic in 1998. The comparison of the 10 m wind speed forecasts from the NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE-II reanalyses with in-situ observations demonstrates the implausibility of the latter forecast resulting in its non-consideration in the added value assessment. The added value is investigated for instantaneous wind speeds (relevant for case studies) and their frequency distribution (relevant for e.g., extreme value statistics and estimations of wind potential). The observations are discriminated into groups according to their proximity to land and assimilation status, meaning whether

REMO poor man's reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ries, H.; Moseley, C.; Haensler, A.

2012-04-01

Reanalyses depict the state of the atmosphere as a best fit in space and time of many atmospheric observations in a physically consistent way. By essentially solving the data assimilation problem in a very accurate manner, reanalysis results can be used as reference for model evaluation procedures and as forcing data sets for different model applications. However, the spatial resolution of the most common and accepted reanalysis data sets (e.g. JRA25, ERA-Interim) ranges from approximately 124 km to 80 km. This resolution is too coarse to simulate certain small scale processes often associated with extreme events. In addition, many models need higher resolved forcing data ( e.g. land-surface models, tools for identifying and assessing hydrological extremes). Therefore we downscaled the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the EURO-CORDEX-Domain for the time period 1989 to 2008 to a horizontal resolution of approximately 12 km. The downscaling is performed by nudging REMO-simulations to lower and lateral boundary conditions of the reanalysis, and by re-initializing the model every 24 hours ("REMO in forecast mode"). In this study the three following questions will be addressed: 1.) Does the REMO poor man's reanalysis meet the needs (accuracy, extreme value distribution) in validation and forcing? 2.) What lessons can be learned about the model used for downscaling? As REMO is used as a pure downscaling procedure, any systematic deviations from ERA-Interim result from poor process modelling but not from predictability limitations. 3.) How much small scale information generated by the downscaling model is lost with frequent initializations? A comparison to a simulation that is performed in climate mode will be presented.

Wind waves on the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, V. S.; Gippius, F. N.; Koltermann, K. P.; Surkova, G. V.

2014-02-01

In this study we describe the wind waves fields on the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal storm variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 km × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1948 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant storminess are the south-western and the north-eastern corners as expressed in the spatial distribution of wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides that, long-term annual variations of storminess were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the reanalysis period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s-1970s.

On the role of the cross equatorial flow on summer monsoon rainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schluessel, P.

throughout the year and Bay of Bengal (Fig. 6f) a low level moisture con- vergence area for most of the months agrees well with the earlier results (Ramesh Kumar and Prasad, 1995). 5. Interannual Variability of Wind Speed, Specific Humidity and Precipitable... (d) Monsoon Years (Negative Sign Indicates Inward Flux and Positive Sign Indicates Outward Flow). Div and Con indicate Divergence and Convergence in the Box respectively. E & P indicate the Evaporation and Precipitation respectively. Units: 10 10 Tons...

Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J. S.; Fueglistaler, S.

2013-09-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis and Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis 1. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Discrepancies in latent heating reflect continuing difficulties in representing moist convection in models. Although these discrepancies may be expected, their magnitude is still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour) and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention). The largest differences in radiative heating in the tropical UTLS are attributable to differences in cloud radiative heating, but important systematic differences are present even in the absence of clouds. Local maxima in heating and cooling due to parameterised turbulent mixing occur in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause.

Why is the Bay of Bengal experiencing a reduced rate of sea surface warming?

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

DeMello, J.R.; PrasannaKumar, S.

://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds260.1/) (Yu et al., 2008), while the precipitation rate was from the climate diagnostic centre (CDC) derived NCEP reanalysis products (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi- bin/db_search/). The monthly gridded data of the short wave radiation, long wave...

Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

2004-08-01

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

2018-04-01

In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

Anomalous Arctic surface wind patterns and their impacts on September sea ice minima and trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bingyi Wu

2012-05-01

Full Text Available We used monthly mean surface wind data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset during the period 1979–2010 to describe the first two patterns of Arctic surface wind variability by means of the complex vector empirical orthogonal function (CVEOF analysis. The first two patterns respectively account for 31 and 16% of its total anomalous kinetic energy. The leading pattern consists of the two subpatterns: the northern Laptev Sea (NLS pattern and the Arctic dipole (AD pattern. The second pattern contains the northern Kara Sea (NKS pattern and the central Arctic (CA pattern. Over the past two decades, the combined dynamical forcing of the first two patterns has contributed to Arctic September sea ice extent (SIE minima and its declining trend. September SIE minima are mainly associated with the negative phase of the AD pattern and the positive phase of the CA pattern during the summer (July to September season, and both phases coherently show an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean. Wind patterns affect September SIE through their frequency and intensity. The negative trend in September SIE over the past two decades is associated with increased frequency and enhanced intensity of the CA pattern during the melting season from April to September. Thus, it cannot be simply attributed to the AD anomaly characterised by the second empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level pressure north of 70°N. The CA pattern exhibited interdecadal variability in the late 1990s, and an anomalous cyclone prevailed before 1997 and was then replaced by an anomalous anticyclone over the Arctic Ocean that is consistent with the rapid decline trend in September SIE. This paper provides an alternative way to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability and investigate their associated Arctic sea ice variability from a dynamical perspective. Indeed, this study

Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25)

Science.gov (United States)

Ohkawara, Nozomu

2006-12-01

A long term global atmospheric reanalysis Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) which covers from 1979 to 2004 was completed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical assimilation and forecast system. This is the first long term reanalysis undertaken in Asia. JMA's latest numerical assimilation system, and observational data collected as much as possible, were used in JRA-25 to generate a consistent and high quality reanalysis dataset to contribute to climate research and operational work. One purpose of JRA-25 is to enhance to a high quality the analysis in the Asian region. 6-hourly data assimilation cycles were performed and produced 6-hourly atmospheric analysis and forecast fields with various kinds of physical variables. The global model used in JRA-25 has a spectral resolution of T106 (equivalent to a horizontal grid size of around 120km) and 40 vertical layers with the top level at 0.4hPa. For observational data, a great deal of satellite data was used in addition to conventional surface and upper air data. Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data retrieved from geostationary satellites, brightness temperature (TBB) data from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), precipitable water retrieved from radiance of microwave radiometer from orbital satellites and some other satellite data were assimilated with 3-dimensional variational method (3DVAR). Many advantages have been found in the JRA-25 reanalysis. Firstly, forecast 6-hour global total precipitation in JRA-25 performs well, distribution and amount are properly represented both in space and time. JRA-25 has the best performance compared to other reanalysis with respect to time series of global precipitation over many years, with few unrealistic variations caused by degraded quality of satellite data due to volcanic eruptions. Secondly, JRA-25 is the first reanalysis which assimilated wind profiles surrounding tropical cyclones retrieved from historical best track information; tropical cyclones

The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH): Implementing Unified Data Discovery and Access

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, D.; Worley, S. J.; Hou, C. Y.; Nienhouse, E.

2017-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement an integrated single entry point for uniform digital asset discovery and access across the organization in order to improve the efficiency of access, reduce the costs, and establish the foundation for interoperability with other federated systems. This effort supports new policies included in federal funding mandates, NSF data management requirements, and journal citation recommendations. An inventory during the early planning stage identified diverse asset types across the organization that included publications, datasets, metadata, models, images, and software tools and code. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH) is being developed and phased in this year to improve the quality of users' experiences in finding and using these assets. DASH serves to provide engagement, training, search, and support through the following four nodes (see figure). DASH MetadataDASH provides resources for creating and cataloging metadata to the NCAR Dialect, a subset of ISO 19115. NMDEdit, an editor based on a European open source application, has been configured for manual entry of NCAR metadata. CKAN, an open source data portal platform, harvests these XML records (along with records output directly from databases) from a Web Accessible Folder (WAF) on GitHub for validation. DASH SearchThe NCAR Dialect metadata drives cross-organization search and discovery through CKAN, which provides the display interface of search results. DASH search will establish interoperability by facilitating metadata sharing with other federated systems. DASH ConsultingThe DASH Data Curation & Stewardship Coordinator assists with Data Management (DM) Plan preparation and advises on Digital Object Identifiers. The coordinator arranges training sessions on the DASH metadata tools and DM planning, and provides one-on-one assistance as requested. DASH Repository

Large differences in reanalyses of diabatic heating in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. S. Wright

2013-09-01

Full Text Available We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT and lower stratosphere (LS as simulated by five reanalysis models: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA, European Reanalysis (ERA-Interim, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis and Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Discrepancies in latent heating reflect continuing difficulties in representing moist convection in models. Although these discrepancies may be expected, their magnitude is still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention. The largest differences in radiative heating in the tropical UTLS are attributable to differences in cloud radiative heating, but important systematic differences are present even in the absence of clouds. Local maxima in heating and cooling due to parameterised turbulent mixing occur in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause.

Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Kuo; Zeng Yu-Xing; Wang Xu-Jia; Feng Guo-Lin

2013-01-01

In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

A synoptic climatology of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems in the North-Central Plains

Science.gov (United States)

Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.; Byrd, Stephen F.

2000-09-01

Synoptic-scale environments favourable for producing derechos, or widespread convectively induced windstorms, in the North-Central Plains are examined with the goal of providing pattern-recognition/diagnosis techniques. Fifteen derechos were identified across the North-Central Plains region during 1986-1995. The synoptic environment at the initiation, mid-point and decay of each derecho was then evaluated using surface, upper-air and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets.Results suggest that the synoptic environment is critical in maintaining derecho producing mesoscale convective systems (DMCSs). The synoptic environment in place downstream of the MCS initiation region determines the movement and potential strength of the system. Circulation around surface low pressure increased the instability gradient and maximized leading edge convergence in the initiation region of nearly all events regardless of DMCS location or movement. Other commonalities in the environments of these events include the presence of a weak thermal boundary, high convective instability and a layer of dry low-to-mid-tropospheric air. Of the two corridors sampled, northeastward moving derechos tend to initiate east of synoptic-scale troughs, while southeastward moving derechos form on the northeast periphery of a synoptic-scale ridge. Other differences between these two DMCS events are also discussed.

Numerical Modelling of Extreme Natural Hazards in the Russian Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Surkova, Galina

2017-04-01

Storm surges and extreme waves are severe natural sea hazards. Due to the almost complete lack of natural observations of these phenomena in the Russian seas (Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic, White, Barents, Okhotsk, Kara), especially about their formation, development and destruction, they have been studied using numerical simulation. To calculate the parameters of wind waves for the seas listed above, except the Barents Sea, the spectral model SWAN was applied. For the Barents and Kara seas we used WAVEWATCH III model. Formation and development of storm surges were studied using ADCIRC model. The input data for models - bottom topography, wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover. In modeling of surges in the White and Barents seas tidal level fluctuations were used. They have been calculated from 16 harmonic constant obtained from global atlas tides FES2004. Wind, atmospheric pressure and ice cover was taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2010, and NCEP/CFSR reanalysis for the period from 1979 to 2015. In modeling we used both regular and unstructured grid. The wave climate of the Caspian, Black, Azov, Baltic and White seas was obtained. Also the extreme wave height possible once in 100 years has been calculated. The statistics of storm surges for the White, Barents and Azov Seas were evaluated. The contribution of wind and atmospheric pressure in the formation of surges was estimated. The technique of climatic forecast frequency of storm synoptic situations was developed and applied for every sea. The research was carried out with financial support of the RFBR (grant 16-08-00829).

Rainfall Prediction of Indian Peninsula: Comparison of Time Series Based Approach and Predictor Based Approach using Machine Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Dash, Y.; Mishra, S. K.; Panigrahi, B. K.

2017-12-01

Prediction of northeast/post monsoon rainfall which occur during October, November and December (OND) over Indian peninsula is a challenging task due to the dynamic nature of uncertain chaotic climate. It is imperative to elucidate this issue by examining performance of different machine leaning (ML) approaches. The prime objective of this research is to compare between a) statistical prediction using historical rainfall observations and global atmosphere-ocean predictors like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and b) empirical prediction based on a time series analysis of past rainfall data without using any other predictors. Initially, ML techniques have been applied on SST and SLP data (1948-2014) obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean provided by the NOAA ESRL PSD. Later, this study investigated the applicability of ML methods using OND rainfall time series for 1948-2014 and forecasted up to 2018. The predicted values of aforementioned methods were verified using observed time series data collected from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the result revealed good performance of ML algorithms with minimal error scores. Thus, it is found that both statistical and empirical methods are useful for long range climatic projections.

What Controls the Temperature of the Arctic Stratosphere during the Spring?

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms that control the temperature of the polar lower stratosphere during spring is key to understanding ozone loss in the Arctic polar vortex. Spring ozone loss rates are directly tied to polar stratospheric temperatures by the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, and the conversion of chlorine species to reactive forms on these cloud particle surfaces. In this paper, we study those factors that control temperatures in the polar lower stratosphere. We use the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR reanalysis data covering the last two decades to investigate how planetary wave driving of the stratosphere is connected to polar temperatures. In particular, we show that planetary waves forced in the troposphere in mid- to late winter (January-February) are principally responsible for the mean polar temperature during the March period. These planetary waves are forced by both thermal and orographic processes in the troposphere, and propagate into the stratosphere in the mid and high latitudes. Strong mid-winter planetary wave forcing leads to a warmer Arctic lower stratosphere in early spring, while weak mid-winter forcing leads to cooler Arctic temperatures.

Bridging the knowledge gap between Big Data producers and consumers

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, G. S.; Worley, S. J.

2015-12-01

Most weather data is produced, disseminated and consumed by expert users in large national operational centers or laboratories. Data 'ages' off their systems in days or weeks. While archives exist, would-be users often lack the credentials necessary to obtain an account to access or search its contents. Moreover, operational centers and many national archives lack the mandate and the resources to serve non-expert users. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, was created over 40 years ago to collect data for NCAR's internal Big Science projects such as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. Over time, the data holdings have grown to 1.8+ Petabytes spanning 600+ datasets. The user base has also grown; in 2014, we served 1.1 Petabytes of data to over 11,000 unique users. The RDA works with national centers, such as NCEP, ECMWF and JMA to make their data available to worldwide audiences and mutually support data access at the production source. We have become not just an open-access data center, but also a data education center. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages prepared by the DS, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. The RDA has stepped in to fill the gap between data

Reservoir Inflow Prediction under GCM Scenario Downscaled by Wavelet Transform and Support Vector Machine Hybrid Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gusfan Halik

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change has significant impacts on changing precipitation patterns causing the variation of the reservoir inflow. Nowadays, Indonesian hydrologist performs reservoir inflow prediction according to the technical guideline of Pd-T-25-2004-A. This technical guideline does not consider the climate variables directly, resulting in significant deviation to the observation results. This research intends to predict the reservoir inflow using the statistical downscaling (SD of General Circulation Model (GCM outputs. The GCM outputs are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. A new proposed hybrid SD model named Wavelet Support Vector Machine (WSVM was utilized. It is a combination of the Multiscale Principal Components Analysis (MSPCA and nonlinear Support Vector Machine regression. The model was validated at Sutami Reservoir, Indonesia. Training and testing were carried out using data of 1991–2008 and 2008–2012, respectively. The results showed that MSPCA produced better extracting data than PCA. The WSVM generated better reservoir inflow prediction than the one of technical guideline. Moreover, this research also applied WSVM for future reservoir inflow prediction based on GCM ECHAM5 and scenario SRES A1B.

A regional model simulation of the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. Part 2: Model bias

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gong, W.; Wang, W.C.

2000-01-01

This is the second part of a study investigating the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Uangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in China using both observations and regional model simulations. While Part 1 reported on the Mei-yu front and its association with large-scale circulation, this study documents the biases associated with the treatment of the lateral boundary in the regional model. Two aspects of the biases were studied: the driving field, which provides large-scale boundary forcing, and the coupling scheme, which specified how the forcing is adopted by the model. The former bias is defined as model uncertainty because it is not related to the model itself, while the latter bias (as well as those biases attributed to other sources) is referred to as model error. These two aspects were examined by analyzing the regional model simulations of the 1991 summer severe precipitation event over YHRV using different driving fields (ECMWF-TOGA objective analysis, ECMWF reanalysis, and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis) and coupling scheme (distribution function of the nudging coefficient and width of the buffer zone). Spectral analysis was also used to study the frequency distribution of the bias.

NCEP BUFRLIB Software User Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Integration Branch > Decoders > BUFRLIB BUFRLIB Software User Guide This document set describes how to use the NCEP BUFRLIB software to encode or decode BUFR messages. It is not intended to be a primer on background knowledge of the basic concepts of BUFR and will focus solely on how to use the BUFRLIB software

Structure and precursors of the 1992 / 93 drought in KwaZulu-Natal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The historical context and potential causes and structure of the 1992/93 drought in KwaZulu-Natal are analysed using NCEP reanalysis data. The analysis indicates that increased westerly winds with surface marine lows and continental highs prevailed over Southern Africa. Anomalous divergence and subsidence occur ...

Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.; Toma, Violeta E. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2012-12-15

The seasonal prediction skill of the Asian summer monsoon is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2009) from the ECMWF System 4 (SYS4) and NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal prediction systems. In both SYS4 and CFSv2, a cold bias of sea-surface temperature (SST) is found over the equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, Indian Oceans and over a broad region in the Southern Hemisphere relative to observations. In contrast, a warm bias is found over the northern part of North Pacific and North Atlantic. Excessive precipitation is found along the ITCZ, equatorial Atlantic, equatorial Indian Ocean and the maritime continent. The southwest monsoon flow and the Somali Jet are stronger in SYS4, while the south-easterly trade winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Somali Jet and the subtropical northwestern Pacific high are weaker in CFSv2 relative to the reanalysis. In both systems, the prediction of SST, precipitation and low-level zonal wind has greatest skill in the tropical belt, especially over the central and eastern Pacific where the influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is dominant. Both modeling systems capture the global monsoon and the large-scale monsoon wind variability well, while at the same time performing poorly in simulating monsoon precipitation. The Asian monsoon prediction skill increases with the ENSO amplitude, although the models simulate an overly strong impact of ENSO on the monsoon. Overall, the monsoon predictive skill is lower than the ENSO skill in both modeling systems but both systems show greater predictive skill compared to persistence. (orig.)

ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. G. Pavlakis

2007-01-01

Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Niall, Stephanie; Walsh, Kevin

2005-11-01

Data from a number of locations around southeastern Australia were analysed to determine the influence of climate change on the frequency and intensity of hail events in this region. The relationship between Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), frequently used as a measure of atmospheric instability, and hailstorms was investigated using both NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (a data set comprising a blend of observations and model simulations) and also direct sounding data obtained from the Australian National Climate Centre. Two locations were chosen in southeastern Australia, Mount Gambier and Melbourne, over the months August to October for the period 1980-2001. A statistically significant relationship between hail incidence and CAPE values was established for both NCEP/NCAR and sounding data at both study sites. A stronger relationship was found between hail incidence and the CAPE, which was calculated using NCEP/NCAR data, than that between hail and the CAPE from the actual sounding data. A similar analysis was also conducted at both sites using the totals-totals index (TT index), which is an alternative measure of atmospheric instability.The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model was used to simulate values of CAPE for Mount Gambier in an environment containing double the pre-industrial concentrations of equivalent CO2. The results showed a significant decrease in CAPE values in the future. From this, assuming the relationship between CAPE and hail remains unchanged under enhanced greenhouse conditions, it is possible that there will be a decrease in the frequency of hail in southeastern Australia if current rates of CO2 emission are sustained. The severity of future hail events was investigated using crop-loss data from insurance companies. Strongest correlations were found between the crop-loss ratio (value of crop lost to hail damage over the total insured value of crop) and the number of days in a crop season with a TT index greater than 55. Results from the

Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, K.

2008-04-01

Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

Interdecadal variability of winter precipitation in Southeast China

OpenAIRE

Zhang, L.; Zhu, X.; Fraedrich, K.; Sielmann, F.; Zhi, X.

2014-01-01

Interdecadal variability of observed winter precipitation in Southeast China (1961–2010) is characterized by the first empirical orthogonal function of the three-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) subjected to a 9-year running mean. For interdecadal time scales the dominating spatial modes represent monopole features involving the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Dynamic composite analysis (based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyzes) reveals the followin...

The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiedler, B H; Bukovsky, M S

2011-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to study the effect of a giant wind farm on warm-season precipitation in the eastern two-thirds of the USA. The boundary conditions for WRF are supplied by 62 years of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) global reanalysis. In the model, the presence of a mid-west wind farm, either giant or small, can have an enormous impact on the weather and the amount of precipitation for one season, which is consistent with the known sensitivity of long-term weather forecasts to initial conditions. The effect on climate is less strong. In the average precipitation of 62 warm seasons, there is a statistically significant 1.0% enhancement of precipitation in a multi-state area surrounding and to the south-east of the wind farm.

Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data for the NSF/NCAR HIAPER (GV) and NSF/NCAR C-130 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

Science.gov (United States)

Aquino, J.

2014-12-01

The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies. The data collected are an important legacy of these field campaigns. A comprehensive metadata database and integrated cyber-infrastructure, along with a robust data workflow that begins during the field phase and extends to long-term archival (current aircraft data holdings go back to 1967), assures that: all data and associated software are safeguarded throughout the data handling process; community standards of practice for data stewardship and software version control are followed; simple and timely community access to collected data and associated software tools are provided; and the quality of the collected data is preserved, with the ultimate goal of supporting research and the reproducibility of published results. The components of this data system to be presented include: robust, searchable web access to data holdings; reliable, redundant data storage; web-based tools and scripts for efficient creation, maintenance and update of data holdings; access to supplemental data and documentation; storage of data in standardized data formats; comprehensive metadata collection; mature version control; human-discernable storage practices; and procedures to inform users of changes. In addition, lessons learned, shortcomings, and desired upgrades

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne Illinois USA

2014-07-27

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Atmospheric Model

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) numerical weather...

Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

2012-11-01

Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

Science.gov (United States)

White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

2017-04-01

A dynamically consistent, long-term atmospheric reanalysis can be used to support high-quality assessments of environmental risk and likelihood of extreme events. Most reanalyses are presently based on coarse-scale global systems that are not suitable for regional assessments in fire risk, water and natural resources, amongst others. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently working to close this gap by producing a high-resolution reanalysis over the Australian and New Zealand region to construct a sequence of atmospheric conditions at sub-hourly intervals over the past 25 years from 1990. The Australia reanalysis consists of a convective-scale analysis nested within a 12 km regional-scale reanalysis, which is bounded by a coarse-scale ERA-Interim reanalysis that provides the required boundary and initial conditions. We use an unchanging atmospheric modelling suite based on the UERRA system used at the UK Met Office and the more recent version of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational numerical prediction model used in ACCESS-R (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Regional system). An advanced (4-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme is used to optimally combine model physics with multiple observations from aircrafts, sondes, surface observations and satellites to create a best estimate of state of the atmosphere over a 6-hour moving window. This analysis is in turn used to drive a higher-resolution (1.5 km) downscaling model over selected subdomains within Australia, currently eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, with the capability to support this anywhere in the Australia-New Zealand domain. The temporal resolution of the gridded analysis fields for both the regional and higher-resolution subdomains are generally one hour, with many fields such as 10 m winds and 2 m temperatures available every 10 minutes. The reanalysis also produces many other variables that include wind, temperature, moisture, pressure, cloud cover

Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

Science.gov (United States)

Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

2011-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the axial atmospheric angular momentum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonid Zotov

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM (atmospheric angular momentum. In particular, the axial AAM component χ3, which undergoes especially strong variations, induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD (length of day were described. We applied MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-month, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs (Principal components strongly related to ENSO (El Nino southern oscillation were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.

An assessment of the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification to a continental mid-latitude location

Science.gov (United States)

Spellman, Greg

2017-05-01

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part I—decomposition model and theorems

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shujuan; Chou, Jifan; Cheng, Jianbo

2018-04-01

In order to study the interactions between the atmospheric circulations at the middle-high and low latitudes from the global perspective, the authors proposed the mathematical definition of three-pattern circulations, i.e., horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations with which the actual atmospheric circulation is expanded. This novel decomposition method is proved to accurately describe the actual atmospheric circulation dynamics. The authors used the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to calculate the climate characteristics of those three-pattern circulations, and found that the decomposition model agreed with the observed results. Further dynamical analysis indicates that the decomposition model is more accurate to capture the major features of global three dimensional atmospheric motions, compared to the traditional definitions of Rossby wave, Hadley circulation and Walker circulation. The decomposition model for the first time realized the decomposition of global atmospheric circulation using three orthogonal circulations within the horizontal, meridional and zonal planes, offering new opportunities to study the large-scale interactions between the middle-high latitudes and low latitudes circulations.

Large differences in the diabatic heat budget of the tropical UTLS in reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, J. S.; Fueglistaler, S.

2013-04-01

We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: MERRA, ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-25/JCDAS, and NCEP/NCAR. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including latent heating, heating due to radiative transfer, and heating due to parameterised vertical mixing. We describe and discuss the most pronounced differences. Although they may be expected given difficulties in representing moist convection in models, the discrepancies in latent heating are still disturbing. We pay particular attention to discrepancies in radiative heating (which may be surprising given the strength of observational constraints on temperature and tropospheric water vapour) and discrepancies in heating due to turbulent mixing (which have received comparatively little attention).

What Controls the Arctic Lower Stratosphere Temperature?

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period. We will further show that the recent cold years in the northern polar vortex are a result of this weakened wave driving of the stratosphere.

Modes of winter precipitation variability in the North Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Saenz, J.; Fernandez, J.; Zubillaga, J. [Bilbao Univ. (Spain)

2001-07-01

The modes of variability of winter precipitation in the North Atlantic sector are identified by Empirical Orthogonal Functions Analysis in the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data sets. These modes are also present in a gridded precipitation data set over the Western Europe. The large-scale fields of atmospheric seasonal mean circulation, baroclinic activity, evaporation and humidity transport that are connected to the rainfall modes have been also analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanisms that are causally linked to the rainfall modes. The results indicate that the leading rainfall mode is associated to the North Atlantic oscillation and represents a meridional redistribution of precipitation in the North Atlantic through displacements of the storm tracks. The second mode is related to evaporation anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic that precipitate almost entirely in the Western Atlantic. The third mode seems to be associated to meridional transport of water vapor from the Tropical Atlantic. (orig.)

Differences between downscaling with spectral and grid nudging using WRF

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Liu

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling has been extensively used to study regional climate forced by large-scale global climate models. During the downscaling process, however, the simulation of regional climate models (RCMs tends to drift away from the driving fields. Developing a solution that addresses this issue, by retaining the large scale features (from the large-scale fields and the small-scale features (from the RCMs has led to the development of "nudging" techniques. Here, we examine the performance of two nudging techniques, grid and spectral nudging, in the downscaling of NCEP/NCAR data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model. The simulations are compared against the results with North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR data set at different scales of interest using the concept of similarity. We show that with the appropriate choice of wave numbers, spectral nudging outperforms grid nudging in the capacity of balancing the performance of simulation at the large and small scales.

Evolution of the Water Vapor Plume over Eastern Europe during Summer 2010 Atmospheric Blocking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei A. Sitnov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We present an analysis of water vapor (WV plume evolution over Eastern Europe (EE during atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010, carried out on the basis of satellite (MODIS and MLS instruments, aerological, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The obtained results show that the development of blocking was accompanied by the development of a positive anomaly of total column water vapor (TCWV content over the northern part of EE. Local TCWV content from 28 July to 6 August 2010 reached 3.35 cm, a value that exceeded by 3.3 times its content before the block. The surplus of WV was mainly conditioned by the advection of WV due to transfer of moist air from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea into northern EE and also due to increased evaporation from the surface enriched with water due to increased temperature and wind. We hypothesize that the influx of latent heat in the block area can contribute to the energy supply of the blocking anticyclone and prolong the existence of block. Strong humidification of the troposphere and some dehumidification of the lower stratosphere during the block were accompanied by warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere.

Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-08-15

The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

2015-11-01

Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2017-09-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

2018-06-01

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Hongwei; Wang, Bin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

2012-02-15

Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979-2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. (orig.)

Intercomparison of meteorological analyses and trajectories in the Antarctic lower stratosphere with Concordiasi superpressure balloon observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Lars; Hertzog, Albert; Rößler, Thomas; Stein, Olaf; Wu, Xue

2017-07-01

In this study we compared temperatures and horizontal winds of meteorological analyses in the Antarctic lower stratosphere, a region of the atmosphere that is of major interest regarding chemistry and dynamics of the polar vortex. The study covers the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 1 and 2 (MERRA and MERRA-2), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The comparison was performed with respect to long-duration observations from 19 superpressure balloon flights during the Concordiasi field campaign in September 2010 to January 2011. Most of the balloon measurements were conducted at altitudes of 17-18.5 km and latitudes of 60-85° S. We found that large-scale state temperatures of the analyses have a mean precision of 0.5-1.4 K and a warm bias of 0.4-2.1 K with respect to the balloon data. Zonal and meridional winds have a mean precision of 0.9-2.3 m s-1 and a bias below ±0.5 m s-1. Standard deviations related to small-scale fluctuations due to gravity waves are reproduced at levels of 15-60 % for temperature and 30-60 % for the horizontal winds. Considering the fact that the balloon observations have been assimilated into all analyses, except for NCEP/NCAR, notable differences found here indicate that other observations, the forecast models, and the data assimilation procedures have a significant impact on the analyses as well. We also used the balloon observations to evaluate trajectory calculations with our new Lagrangian transport model Massive-Parallel Trajectory Calculations (MPTRAC), where vertical motions of simulated trajectories were nudged to pressure measurements of the balloons. We found relative horizontal transport deviations of 4-12 % and error growth rates of 60-170 km day-1 for 15-day trajectories. Dispersion

Impact of Amazon deforestation on climate simulations using the NCAR CCM2/BATS model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

1996-12-31

Model validation and results are briefly presented for a simulation of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. This initial study is made using assumptions regarding deforestation similar to those in earlier studies with several versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) couples to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The model used is a revised version of the NCAR CCM Version 2 coupled to BATS Version 1e. This paper discusses the portion of validation dealing with the distribution of precipitation; the simulation displays very good agreement with observed rainfall rates for the austral summer. Preliminary results from an 8-year simulation of deforestation are similar to that of previous studies. Annual precipitation and evaporation are reduced, while surface air temperatures show a slight increase. A substantial bimodal pattern appears in the results, with the Amazon decrease of precipitation and temperature increase accompanied by changes in the opposite sign to the southeast of the Amazon. Similar patterns have occurred in other studies, but not always in exactly the same locations. Evidently, how much of the region of rainfall increase occurs in the deforested area over the Amazon strongly affects the inferred statistics. It is likely that this pattern depends on the model control climatology and possibly other features. 16 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

2015-11-15

This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM).

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Menkes, C.E.; Lengaigne, M.; Marchesiello, P.; Jourdain, N.C.; Vincent, E.M.; Lefevre, J.; Chauvin, F.; Royer, J.-F.

Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main...

NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria for metabolic syndrome predict type 2 diabetes mellitus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Sulistiowati

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Background Subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS have a greater risk for acquiring type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM. The MetS criteria usually used are those of the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel (NCEP and Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III and of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF. This study aimed to evaluate the modified NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria as predictor of type 2 DM among subjects with MetS.   Methods A cohort study was conducted among 4240 subjects with MetS. MetS was determined according to the modified NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria. The study followed up 3324 non-diabetic subjects of the cohort study of non-communicable disease (NCD risk factors (NCD study during a 2-year period. Type 2 DM was determined from the diagnosis by health personnel or from fasting blood glucose of ≥126 mg/dL or blood glucose of ≥200 mg/dL, 2 hours after 75g glucose loading.   Results The MetS prevalence based on modified NCEP ATP III and IDF criteria in non-DM subjects was 17.1% and 15.6%, respectively. The risk for DM in subjects with MetS using modified NCEP ATP III and IDF criteria was 4.7 (CI 95%: 3.4-6.5 and 4.1 (CI 95%: 3.0-5.7, respectively.   Conclusions Both MetS criteria can be used as predictors of the occurrence of DM type 2, but the modified NCEP-ATP III is more properly applied than the IDF criteria in subjects with MetS. Screening programs and routine monitoring of MetS components are required for early detection of type 2 DM.

NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory - An End-to-End Observational Science Enterprise

Science.gov (United States)

Rockwell, A.; Baeuerle, B.; Grubišić, V.; Hock, T. F.; Lee, W. C.; Ranson, J.; Stith, J. L.; Stossmeister, G.

2017-12-01

Researchers who want to understand and describe the Earth System require high-quality observations of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Making these observations not only requires capable research platforms and state-of-the-art instrumentation but also benefits from comprehensive in-field project management and data services. NCAR's Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) is an end-to-end observational science enterprise that provides leadership in observational research to scientists from universities, U.S. government agencies, and NCAR. Deployment: EOL manages the majority of the NSF Lower Atmosphere Observing Facilities, which includes research aircraft, radars, lidars, profilers, and surface and sounding systems. This suite is designed to address a wide range of Earth system science - from microscale to climate process studies and from the planet's surface into the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. EOL offers scientific, technical, operational, and logistics support to small and large field campaigns across the globe. Development: By working closely with the scientific community, EOL's engineering and scientific staff actively develop the next generation of observing facilities, staying abreast of emerging trends, technologies, and applications in order to improve our measurement capabilities. Through our Design and Fabrication Services, we also offer high-level engineering and technical expertise, mechanical design, and fabrication to the atmospheric research community. Data Services: EOL's platforms and instruments collect unique datasets that must be validated, archived, and made available to the research community. EOL's Data Management and Services deliver high-quality datasets and metadata in ways that are transparent, secure, and easily accessible. We are committed to the highest standard of data stewardship from collection to validation to archival. Discovery: EOL promotes curiosity about Earth science, and fosters advanced understanding of the

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome using NCEP-ATPIII and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome using ınternational dietetics federation (IDF) versus National cholesterol education program; adult treatment panel III (NCEP-ATPIII) definitions in Turkish adults. A cross-sectional study was conducted on a total of 1531 (male 758 and female 773) Turkish adults, aged ...

ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. G. Pavlakis

2008-09-01

Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm⁻² during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm⁻² during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm⁻² to −20 Wm⁻² during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ji, Zhenming [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Lanzhou (China); Zhang, Dongfeng [Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan (China); Zhu, Chunzi [Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing (China); Wu, Jia; Xu, Ying [National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

2011-05-15

A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1-0.5 C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between -25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1-2 pentads, and delaying by 1-2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes. (orig.)

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

Equatorial Annual Oscillation with QBO-driven 5-year Modulation in NCEP Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2007-01-01

An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

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Liselotte Bach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

Identification of tipping elements of the Indian Summer Monsoon using climate network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

2015-04-01

Spatial and temporal variability of the rainfall is a vital question for more than one billion of people inhabiting the Indian subcontinent. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall is crucial for India's economy, social welfare, and environment and large efforts are being put into predicting the Indian Summer Monsoon. For predictability of the ISM, it is crucial to identify tipping elements - regions over the Indian subcontinent which play a key role in the spatial organization of the Indian monsoon system. Here, we use climate network approach for identification of such tipping elements of the ISM. First, we build climate networks of the extreme rainfall, surface air temperature and pressure over the Indian subcontinent for pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. We construct network of extreme rainfall event using observational satellite data from 1998 to 2012 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) and reanalysis gridded daily rainfall data for a time period of 57 years (1951-2007) (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE). For the network of surface air temperature and pressure fields, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). Second, we filter out data by coarse-graining the network through network measures, and identify tipping regions of the ISM. Finally, we compare obtained results of the network analysis with surface wind fields and show that occurrence of the tipping elements is mostly caused by monsoonal wind circulation, migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Westerlies. We conclude that climate network approach enables to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to identify tipping regions of the ISM. Obtained tipping elements deserve a

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The coeficients were derived using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data of three months: July, September, November of 1999. The NCEP daily analyzed latent heat uxes and brightness temperatures observed by MSMR were used to derive the coeficients. Validity of the derived ...

Supporting National User Communities at NERSC and NCAR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Killeen, Timothy L.; Simon, Horst D.

2006-05-16

The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center(NERSC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are twocomputing centers that have traditionally supported large national usercommunities. Both centers have developed responsive approaches to supportthese user communities and their changing needs, providing end-to-endcomputing solutions. In this report we provide a short overview of thestrategies used at our centers in supporting our scientific users, withan emphasis on some examples of effective programs and futureneeds.

Climate Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

KAUST Repository

Philbin, R.

2015-05-22

This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

KAUST Repository

Philbin, R.; Jun, M.

2015-01-01

This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Yujie; Feng, Junqiao; Hu, Dunxin

2016-05-01

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and upper ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon (SWASM) (2.5°-20°N, 35°-70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon (SEASM) (2.5°-20°N, 70°-110°E). Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift, the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean. The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow. The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO. After the 1976/77 shift, there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM. However, before that shift, their relationship was weak.

Relationships between the West Asian subtropical westerly jet and summer precipitation in northern Xinjiang

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yong; Wang, MinZhong; Huang, AnNing; Li, HongJun; Huo, Wen; Yang, Qing

2014-05-01

The relation between the spatial and temporal variations of the West Asian subtropical westerly jet (WASWJ) and the summer precipitation in northern Xinjiang has been explored using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the summer precipitation data at 43 stations in northern Xinjiang during 1961 to 2007. Results show that the position of the WASWJ is more important than its strength in influencing the summer precipitation in northern Xinjiang. When the jet position is further south, the anomalous southwesterly flow crossing the Indian subcontinent along the southern foothill of the Tibetan Plateau is favorable for the southwestward warm and wet air penetrating from low latitudes into Central Asia and northern Xinjiang and more rainfall formation. Further analysis shows that the interannual variations of the jet position are well correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the weak AO years, the middle to upper troposphere becomes colder than normal and results in an anomalous cyclonic circulation at 200 hPa over Western and Central Asia, which enhances the westerly wind over middle and low latitudes and leads to the WASWJ located further south.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María N Lorenzo

Full Text Available The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorenzo, María N; Ramos, Alexandre M; Taboada, Juan J; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-21

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th) assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

DISTRIBUIÇÃO ESPACIAL DO ÍNDICE DE HAINES PARA MINAS GERAIS POR ANÁLISE DA MÉDIA ATMOSFERA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Fernando Lemos

2012-07-01

Full Text Available As queimadas são responsáveis por custos financeiros e degradação ambiental. Este estudo avalia as áreas de risco de incêndio, com base no índice de Haines (IH em setembro de 2003, em comparação com a climatologia de 1968-1995. Setembro é o mês mais crítico para incêndios florestais. A avaliação se baseia no NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (National Center for ambiental Previsão/National Center for Atmospheric Research. Os resultados demonstram que o Índice de Haines era capaz de reproduzir as áreas com maior incidência de fogo. Este índice mostrou que a atmosfera era mais suscetível ao desenvolvimento de fogo em setembro de 2003, em comparação com a climatologia. Esta pesquisa irá ajudar a gerenciar as áreas críticas e a tomada de decisões estratégicas para combate a incêndios no estado de Minas Gerais.

Development of a methodology to assess the climate evolution and its impacts on wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simard, I. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada); Yu, W. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). Meteorological Research Div.; Gagnon, Y. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). K.C. Irving Chair in Sustainable Development

2010-07-01

Maps of wind resources were used to develop a method of evaluating climatic changes and their potential impacts on wind energy resources. Global IPCC climate change scenarios were used to predict climatic conditions for the future, while past wind resource availability was simulated and validated using NCEP and NCAR reanalysis data as well as observed meteorological data from Environment Canada. The simulations were used to compare each 5-year period with a 50-year reference period. Regional scale climate change impacts were evaluated using a statistical dynamic down-scaling method. Advanced meteorological models were used to predict wind flow patterns across specific landscapes. The evolution of past wind resource availability was then simulated. Five-year wind resource simulations for a 50-year period were simulated at 25 km{sup 2} wind speeds at 80 m above the ground. Average wind speed variations were then evaluated. The method has been used to simulate 5-year periods within a 50-year reference period in New Brunswick. Further studies will be conducted to simulate future wind resources availability. tabs., figs.

Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, V. S.; Gippius, F. N.; Koltermann, K. P.; Surkova, G. V.

2014-11-01

In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s-1970s.

The Pressure-Temperature Regime of Iraq during the Period of 1948–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu.P. Perevedentsev

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We have considered spatiotemporal changes in the pressure-temperature regime at the territory of Iraq and Middle Eastern countries, which is limited by the following geographical coordinates: 27.5–37.5° N, 37.5–50.0° E. The initial data have been obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in the nodes of 2.5° × 2.5° grids, as well as from the indices of atmospheric circulation during the period of 1948–2013. Statistical processing of the material and construction of the linear trends and composites have allowed to reveal the dynamics of changes in the air temperature and pressure, its dependence on fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation. A tendency has been revealed towards a decrease in the temperature during the cold period and its increase during the warm period. Deviations (anomalies of the distribution of actual temperature and atmospheric pressure from the climatological norm have been estimated. Maps of temperature and pressure distribution in the regions have been created.

Temporal changes in the Euphrates and Tigris discharges and teleconnections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, O L; Unal, A; Bozkurt, D; Kindap, T

2011-01-01

The streamflow timings of the Euphrates and Tigris, two important snow-fed rivers in the Middle East, are found to be shifting to earlier days in the year. Six out of eight stations indicate statistically significant shifts between two consecutive 17-year periods (i.e. 1972-88 and 1990-2006). Among these stations, the average shift to earlier times is over 5 days, suggesting earlier spring melting of snowpack due to increased temperatures in the second period. A striking increase in the discharges takes place during the first half of March, and it is observed at all stream gauging sites considered in this study. An analysis based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data indicates that warming which results in this increase is associated with the switching from the northeasterly flow to southwesterly flow over the Black Sea and western Anatolia caused by the weakening of the Siberian High over eastern Europe. These changes in the circulation features from the first to second periods are found to be very consistent with the positive and negative phases of the North Sea-Caspian pattern.

Tracking polar lows in CLM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zahn, M.; Storch, H. von [Inst. for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht (Germany); Meteorological Inst., Univ. of Hamburg (Germany)

2008-08-15

Polar lows are severe cyclones in sub-polar oceans sized beyond the resolved scale of existing global reanalysis products. We used the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses data to drive a regional climate model (CLM) in order to reproduce finer resolved atmospheric fields over the North Atlantic over a two year period. In these fields we detected polar lows by means of a detection algorithm based on a spatial digital bandpass filter. CLM was run in two different ways, the conventional way and with additionally prescribing the analysed large scale situation. The resulting temporal and spatial distributions of polar lows between the different simulations are compared. A reasonable seasonal cycle and spatial distribution was found for all simulations. A lower number of polar lows in the spectral nudged simulation indicates a closer vicinity to reality. Higher temporal and spatial variability between the conventional simulations suggest a more random generation of polar lows. Frequency distributions of track-lengths reveal shorter tracks when nudging is applied. Maximum wind speeds reveal only minor, insignificant differences between all runs and are higher in conventional mode. (orig.)

Development of an Extratropical Storm Wind, Wave, and Water Level Climatology for the Offshore Mid-Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

windfield improvements in WIS result in a superior hindcast product. ERDC/CHL TR-15-11 16 Figure 6. Station 44025 full hindcast evaluations. See...using IOKA winds and WAVEWATCH III modeling technology. Furthermore, the NCEP reanalysis hindcast will likely be rerun with improved WAVEWATCH III...surface wind speeds. Part I: Theory and seawinds observations. Journal of Climate 19:497–520. Ramsey, R., D. Leathers , D. Wells, and H. Talley. 1998

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

Detection of 10B distributions in histological samples by NCAR using thermal and cold neutrons and photoluminiscent imaging plates. New results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rant, J.; Skvarc, J.; Ilic, R.; Gabel, D.; Bayon, G.; Yanagie, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Lehmann, E.; Kuehne, G.

1999-01-01

The Neutron Capture Autoradiography (NCAR) using various Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (SSNTDs) is a well established and accurate method to detect and measure the distributions of 10 B in the ppm range on macroscopic and microscopic level in biological samples, such as histological sections of tumours loaded with 10 B compounds used for BNCT (e.g. 1,2). recently a new technique of NCAR using sensitive photoluminescent Imaging Plates (IP) has been proposed to detect 10 B distributions in histological sections (3), exploiting excellent detection properties of IP systems such as very high detection sensitivity and quantum detection efficiency, broad linear response and dynamic range, very small image distortion, reusability of IP and possibilities of digital autoradiography. The advantage of IP-NCAR vs. NCAR with SSNTDs should be the much lower neutron fluence (10 7 10 9 vs. 10 10 10 13 n/cm 2 with SSNTDs), no intermediate chemical treatment (track etching) and direct and fast compuitational handling and evaluation of the digitized autoradiographic image. However, the spatial resolution of the present available IP detection systems is somewhat lower (∼ 0,04 mm) than with SSNTDs (∼ 0,01 mm). Another problem with IP NCAR is rather high sensitivity of IP to all types of ionizing radiations. Therefore the background of direct and induced gamma-rays as well as of epithermal and fast neutrons has to be filtered out of thermal neutron beam to be used for IP-NCAR. To improve the signal/background ratio and to increase the detectibility of 10 B we propose to use clean cold neutron beams for the IP-NCAR of 10 B distributions in histological samples in BNCT experiments (4,5). In the present work the recent results of experiments in IP-NCAR with cold neutrons from the neutron radiographic channel of the ORPHEE reactor in Saclay and with the rather clean thermal neutron beam of the NEUTRA neutron radiography facility of the PSI (Villingen) will be presented. For the

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2016-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

Global temperature estimates in the troposphere and stratosphere: a validation study of COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Kishore

2009-02-01

Full Text Available This paper mainly focuses on the validation of temperature estimates derived with the newly launched Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC/Formosa Satellite 3 (FORMOSAT-3 system. The analysis is based on the radio occultation (RO data samples collected during the first year observation from April 2006 to April 2007. For the validation, we have used the operational stratospheric analyses including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Reanalysis (NCEP, the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25, and the United Kingdom Met Office (MetO data sets. Comparisons done in different formats reveal good agreement between the COSMIC and reanalysis outputs. Spatially, the largest deviations are noted in the polar latitudes, and height-wise, the tropical tropopause region noted the maximum differences (2–4 K. We found that among the three reanalysis data sets the NCEP data sets have the best resemblance with the COSMIC measurements.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

2004-01-01

High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds from atmospheric reanalysis and scatterometer-based wind products over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic and their application for ocean modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry S.; Bourassa, Mark A.; Petersen, Gudrún Nína; Steffen, John

2017-03-01

Ocean surface vector wind fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products are analyzed over the Nordic Seas and the northern North Atlantic for the time period from 2000 to 2009. The data sets include the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR), Cross-Calibrated Multiplatform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and QuikSCAT. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields in the data sets and demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. A cyclone tracking methodology is developed and applied to the wind fields to compare cyclone characteristics in the data sets. Additionally, the winds are evaluated against observations collected from meteorological buoys deployed in the Iceland and Irminger Seas. The agreement among the wind fields is better for longer time and larger spatial scales. The discrepancies are clearly apparent for synoptic timescales and mesoscales. CCMP, ASR, and CFSR show the closest overall agreement with each other. Substantial biases are found in the NCEPR2 winds. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storms. In the experiment forced by NCEPR2 winds, there are discrepancies in the large-scale wind-driven ocean dynamics compared to the other experiments.

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya;

NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GODAS dataset is a real-time ocean analysis and a reanalysis. It is used for monitoring, retrospective analysis as well as for providing oceanic initial...

Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

2006-11-15

A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2015-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The intensity and location of the westerly jet (WJ) in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has been closely related to weather and climate changes in Eurasia. In this paper, we analyzed the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the strength and position of the WJ, using the NCEP-DOE reanalysis II (NCEP) data.

GPM GROUND VALIDATION NCAR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS PARTICLE PROBES MC3E V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation NCAR Cloud Microphysics Particle Probes MC3E dataset was collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E),...

Recent Reanalysis Activities at ECMWF: Results from ERA-20C and Plans for ERA5

Science.gov (United States)

Dragani, R.; Hersbach, H.; Poli, P.; Pebeuy, C.; Hirahara, S.; Simmons, A.; Dee, D.

2015-12-01

This presentation will provide an overview of the most recent reanalysis activities performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century (ERA-20C) has recently been completed. Funded through the European FP7 collaborative project ERA-CLIM, ERA-20C is part of a suite of experiments that also includes a model-only integration (ERA-20CM) and a land-surface reanalysis (ERA-20CL). Its data assimilation system is constrained by only surface observations obtained from ISPD (3.2.6) and ICOADS (2.5.1). Surface boundary conditions are provided by the Hadley Centre (HadISST2.1.0.0) and radiative forcing follows CMIP5 recommended data sets. First-guess uncertainty estimates are based on a 10-member ensemble of Data Assimilations, ERA-20C ensemble, run prior to ERA-20C using ten SST and sea-ice realizations from the Hadley Centre. In November 2014, the European Commission entrusted ECMWF to run on its behalf the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) aiming at producing quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate at both European and global scales. Reanalysis will be one of the main components of the C3S portfolio and the first one to be produced is a global modern era reanalysis (ERA5) covering the period from 1979 onwards. Based on a recent version of the ECMWF data assimilation system, ERA5 will replace the widely used ERA-Interim dataset. This new production will benefit from a much improved model, and better characterized and exploited observations compared to its predecessor. The first part of the presentation will focus on the ERA-20C production, provide an overview of its main characteristics and discuss some of the key results from its assessment. The second part of the talk will give an overview of ERA5, and briefly discuss some of its challenges.

Spectral wave climatology off Ratnagiri, northeast Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nair, M.A.; SanilKumar, V.

and meridional components of the wind speed at 6-hour intervals at 10 m height from NCEP / NCAR on an approximately 2° grid (Kalnay et al. 1996). These data were downloaded from NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc...

Analysis of the structure of climate networks under El Niño and La Niña conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Graciosa, Juan Carlos; Pastor, Marissa

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of natural climate variability and is characterized by anomalies in the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the tropical Pacific ocean. It has three phases: neutral, a warming phase or El Niño, and a cooling phase called La Niña. In this research, we modeled the climate under the three phases as a network and characterized its properties. We utilized the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) daily surface temperature reanalysis data from January 1950 to December 2016. A network associated to a month was created using the temperature spanning from the previous month to the succeeding month, for a total of three months worth of data for each network. Each site of the included data was a potential node in the network and the existence of links were determined by the strength of their relationship, which was based on mutual information. Interestingly, we found that climate networks exhibit small-world properties and these are found to be more prominent from October to April, coinciding with observations that El Niño occurrences peak from December to March. During these months, the temperature of a relatively large part of the Pacific ocean and its surrounding areas increase and the anomaly values become synchronized. This synchronization in the temperature anomalies forms links around the Pacific, increasing the clustering in the region and in effect, that of the entire network.

A Method for Snow Reanalysis: The Sierra Nevada (USA) Example

Science.gov (United States)

Girotto, Manuela; Margulis, Steven; Cortes, Gonzalo; Durand, Michael

2017-01-01

This work presents a state-of-the art methodology for constructing snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data from the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. This presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years and ultimately improve real-time streamflow predictions.

Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2004-01-01

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E

2004-01-15

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of the Extreme Saharan Dust Event over Turkey in March 2016

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Hakki Baltaci

2017-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, the influence of an extraordinary Saharan dust episode over Turkey on 23–24 March 2016 and the atmospheric conditions that triggered this event were evaluated in detail. PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 μm observations from 97 air quality stations, METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report observations at 64 airports, atmospheric soundings, and satellite products were used for the analysis. To determine the surface and upper levels of atmospheric circulation, National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR Reanalysis data were applied to the extreme dust episodes. On 23 March 2016, high southwesterly winds due to the interaction between surface low- and high-pressure centers over Italy and Levant basin brought thick dust particles from Libya to Turkey. The daily PM10 data from 43 stations exceeded their long-term spring means over Turkey (especially at the northern and western stations. As a consequence of the longitudinal movement of the surface low from Italy to the Balkan Peninsula, and the quasi-stationary conditions of the surface high-pressure center allowed for the penetration of strong south and southwesterly winds to inner parts of the country on the following day. As a consequence, 100%, 90%, 88%, and 87% of the monitoring stations in Marmara (NW Turkey, central Anatolia, western (Aegean and northern (Black Sea regions of Turkey, respectively, exhibited above-normal daily PM10 values. In addition, while strong subsidence at the low levels of the atmosphere plays a significant role in having excessive daily PM10 values in Black Sea, dry atmospheric conditions and thick inversion level near the ground surface of Marmara ensured this region to have peak PM10 values ~00 Local Time (LT.

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, F. R.; Lu, H.-I.

2004-01-01

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended

Role of the convergence zone over West Africa in controlling Saharan mineral dust load and transport in the boreal summer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Owen M. Doherty

2014-07-01

Full Text Available During summer, large amounts of mineral dust are emitted and transported from North Africa over the tropical North Atlantic towards the Caribbean with the exact quantity varying greatly from year to year. Much effort has been made to explain the variability of summer season mineral dust load, for example, by relating dust variability to teleconnection indices such as ENSO and the NAO. However, only weak relationships between such climate indices and the abundance of mineral dust have been found. In this work, we demonstrate the role of the near-surface convergence zone over West Africa in controlling dust load and transport of mineral dust. We apply the ‘Center of Action’ approach to obtain indices that quantify the movement and strength of the convergence zone using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. The latitudinal position of the convergence zone is significantly correlated with the quantity of mineral dust at Barbados over the period 1965–2003 (r=−0.47. A southward displacement of the convergence zone is associated with both increased near-surface flow and decreased precipitation over the dust source regions of the southern Saharan desert, Sahel and Lake Chad. This in turn reduces soil moisture and vegetation, furthering the potential for dust emission. In contrast, the intensity of the convergence zone is not correlated with dust concentration at Barbados. We conclude that the coupling of changes in near-surface winds with changes in precipitation in source regions driven by a southward movement of the convergence zone most directly influence dust load at Barbados and over the tropical North Atlantic during summer.

Remote wind stress influence on mean sea level in a subtropical coastal region

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Mabel Calim Costa

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to assess the relative influence of remote wind stress on mean sea level (MSL variations in the coastal region of Cananeia (Sao Paulo State, Southern Brazil during the period from 1/1/1955 to 12/31/1993. An optimized low-pass Thompson filter for the study area, and spectral analysis (cross spectrum, coherence and phase lag of the relationship between the MSL and both parallel (T// and perpendicular (T| wind stress components were applied. These were extracted from four grid points of the NCEP/NCAR global model. The predominance of annual oscillations as those of greatest coherence and energy, of periods of approximately 341 days (frequency of 0.00293 cpd and 410 days (frequency of 0.00244 cpd, respectively, were observed. Offshore NCEP/NCAR grid points were those with the highest coherence and energy throughout the study in relation to the observed MSL. This may be linked to the restriction of the NCEP/NCAR model as regards the inland limit. It is also concluded that remote wind stress may play an important role in several MSL time scales, including the annual ones. Based on criteria such as coherence and energy peaks, the wind stress component of greatest effect on MSL was the parallel one.O presente estudo tem por objetivo avaliar a influência relativa de tensão do vento remoto na variação do nível médio do mar (NMM para a região costeira de Cananéia (SP durante o período de 1/1/1955 a 31/12/1993. Foram aplicados um filtro de passa-baixa de Thompson (1983, otimizado para a região de Cananéia, além de análise espectral (espectro cruzado, coerência e defasagem entre o NMM e as componentes paralela (T// e perpendicular (T| da tensão do vento. Estas foram extraídas de quatro pontos de grade do modelo global NCEP/NCAR. Observou-se a predominância das oscilações anuais como aquelas de maior coerência e energia, destacando-se os períodos de aproximadamente 341 dias (frequência de 0,00293 cpd e 410

An investigation of the Archean climate using the NCAR CCm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jenkins, G.S.

1991-01-01

The Archean (2.5 to 3.8 billion years ago) is of interest climatically, because of the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox', which can be characterized by the Sun's reduced energy output. This lower energy output leads to a frozen planet if the climate existed as it does today. But, the geologic record shows that water was flowing at the earth's surface 3.8 billion years ago. Energy Balance Models (EBMs) and one-dimensional radiative-convective (1DRC) models predict a frozen planet for this time period, unless large carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations exist in the Archean atmosphere. The goal is to explore the Archean climate with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Community Climate Model (CCM). The search for negative feedbacks to explain the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox' is the thrust of this study. This study undertakes a series of sensitivity simulations which first explores individual factors that may be important for the Archean. They include rotation rate, lower solar luminosity, and land fraction. Then, these climatic factors along with higher CO2 concentrations are combined into a set of experiments. A faster rotation rate may have existed in the Archean. The faster rotation rate simulations show warmer globally averaged surface temperatures that are caused by a 20 percent decrease in the total cloud fraction. The smaller cloud fraction is brought about by dynamical changes. A global ocean is a possibility for the Archean. A global ocean simulation predicts 4 K increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to the present-day climate control

PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

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Michael J. Foster

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Yumimoto, Keiya; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Oshima, Naga; Maki, Takashi

2017-09-01

A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero) was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1° × 1.1°). This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation) of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE) of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB) of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (RMSE = 0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE = 28.1 %, MFB = 0.6 %, and IOA = 0.93). Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in industrializing countries) and a positive bias at mountain sites, possibly because

NCAR High-resolution Land Data Assimilation System and Its Recent Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, F.; Manning, K.; Barlage, M.; Gochis, D.; Tewari, M.

2008-05-01

A High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) has been developed at NCAR to meet the need for high-resolution initial conditions of land state (soil moisture and temperature) by today's numerical weather prediction models coupled to a land surface model such as the WRF/Noah coupled modeling system. Intended for conterminous US application, HRLDAS uses observed hourly 4-km national precipitation analysis and satellite-derived surface-solar-downward radiation to drive, in uncoupled mode, the Noah land surface model to simulate long-term evolution of soil state. The advantage of HRLDAS is its use of 1-km resolution land-use and soil texture maps and 4-km rainfall data. As a result, it is able to capture fine-scale heterogeneity at the surface and in the soil. The ultimate goal of HRLDAS development is to characterize soil moisture/temperature and vegetation variability at small scales (~4km) over large areas to provide improved initial land and vegetation conditions for the WRF/Noah coupled model. Hence, HRLDAS is configured after the WRF/Noah coupled model configuration to ensure the consistency in model resolution, physical configuration (e.g., terrain height), soil model, and parameters between the uncoupled soil initialization system and its coupled forecast counterpart. We will discuss various characteristics of HRLDAS, including its spin-up and sensitivity to errors in forcing data. We will describe recent enhancement in terms of hydrological modeling and the use of remote sensing data. We will discuss recent applications of HRLDAS for flood forecast, agriculture, and arctic land system.

Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Separation from Cross-Track Infrared Sounder Data with Atmospheric Reanalysis Data and ISSTES Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Ze Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS is one of the most advanced hyperspectral instruments and has been used for various atmospheric applications such as atmospheric retrievals and weather forecast modeling. However, because of the specific design purpose of CrIS, little attention has been paid to retrieving land surface parameters from CrIS data. To take full advantage of the rich spectral information in CrIS data to improve the land surface retrievals, particularly the acquisition of a continuous Land Surface Emissivity (LSE spectrum, this paper attempts to simultaneously retrieve a continuous LSE spectrum and the Land Surface Temperature (LST from CrIS data with the atmospheric reanalysis data and the Iterative Spectrally Smooth Temperature and Emissivity Separation (ISSTES algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of the retrieved LSEs and LST is comparable with the current land products. The overall differences of the LST and LSE retrievals are approximately 1.3 K and 1.48%, respectively. However, the LSEs in our study can be provided as a continuum spectrum instead of the single-channel values in traditional products. The retrieved LST and LSEs now can be better used to further analyze the surface properties or improve the retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

The high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2016-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Expanding Access to NCAR's Digital Assets: Towards a Unified Scientific Data Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, D.

2016-12-01

In 2014 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement the strategic vision of an integrated front door for data discovery and access across the organization, including all laboratories, the library, and UCAR Community Programs. The DSET is focused on improving the quality of users' experiences in finding and using NCAR's digital assets. This effort also supports new policies included in federal mandates, NSF requirements, and journal publication rules. An initial survey with 97 respondents identified 68 persons responsible for more than 3 petabytes of data. An inventory, using the Data Asset Framework produced by the UK Digital Curation Centre as a starting point, identified asset types that included files and metadata, publications, images, and software (visualization, analysis, model codes). User story sessions with representatives from each lab identified and ranked desired features for a unified Scientific Data Management System (SDMS). A process beginning with an organization-wide assessment of metadata by the HDF Group and followed by meetings with labs to identify key documentation concepts, culminated in the development of an NCAR metadata dialect that leverages the DataCite and ISO 19115 standards. The tasks ahead are to build out an SDMS and populate it with rich standardized metadata. Software packages have been prototyped and currently are being tested and reviewed by DSET members. Key challenges for the DSET include technical and non-technical issues. First, the status quo with regard to how assets are managed varies widely across the organization. There are differences in file format standards, technologies, and discipline-specific vocabularies. Metadata diversity is another real challenge. The types of metadata, the standards used, and the capacity to create new metadata varies across the organization. Significant effort is required to develop tools to create

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRV2)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire...

Re-analysis as a Comparison of Constructions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jochen Gläser

2000-12-01

Full Text Available An interesting methodological aspect of secondary analysis is that it enables comparisons between constructions that constitute qualitative data analysis. This comparison is even more focused if a reanalysis is conducted, that means an analysis that reexamines both the primary study's data and the primary study's research question. In this article, a reanalysis is described that used interviews from the archive at the Special Collaborative Centre 186 (Sfb 186. One of the primary study's results was formulated as a hypothesis and subsequently "tested" by conducting a qualitative content analysis of the interviews. A comparison of primary study and reanalysis reveals critical decisions which may lead the data analyses to different results. These decisions are usually made implicitly and will show up only if contradictions between results are explained. As a second result of the comparison, typical threats to primary and secondary analyses are discussed. Primary studies seem to suffer from a "closure pressure", that it is a necessity to make sense of the data at all costs. This may stimulate researchers to close gaps in their data by speculation and to neglect contradicting evidence. Secondary analyses are thematically and methodically restricted by the primary study's data collection. Finally, the reanalysis confirmed that it is possible to use interviews from archives: The losses of information due to archiving and anonymisation seemed to have no significant influence on the reanalysis. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0003257

Applications For Real Time NOMADS At NCEP To Disseminate NOAA's Operational Model Data Base

Science.gov (United States)

Alpert, J. C.; Wang, J.; Rutledge, G.

2007-05-01

A wide range of environmental information, in digital form, with metadata descriptions and supporting infrastructure is contained in the NOAA Operational Modeling Archive Distribution System (NOMADS) and its Real Time (RT) project prototype at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NOMADS is now delivering on its goal of a seamless framework, from archival to real time data dissemination for NOAA's operational model data holdings. A process is under way to make NOMADS part of NCEP's operational production of products. A goal is to foster collaborations among the research and education communities, value added retailers, and public access for science and development. In the National Research Council's "Completing the Forecast", Recommendation 3.4 states: "NOMADS should be maintained and extended to include (a) long-term archives of the global and regional ensemble forecasting systems at their native resolution, and (b) re-forecast datasets to facilitate post-processing." As one of many participants of NOMADS, NCEP serves the operational model data base using data application protocol (Open-DAP) and other services for participants to serve their data sets and users to obtain them. Using the NCEP global ensemble data as an example, we show an Open-DAP (also known as DODS) client application that provides a request-and-fulfill mechanism for access to the complex ensemble matrix of holdings. As an example of the DAP service, we show a client application which accesses the Global or Regional Ensemble data set to produce user selected weather element event probabilities. The event probabilities are easily extended over model forecast time to show probability histograms defining the future trend of user selected events. This approach insures an efficient use of computer resources because users transmit only the data necessary for their tasks. Data sets are served by OPeN-DAP allowing commercial clients such as MATLAB or IDL as well as freeware clients

Monthly Sea Surface Salinity and Freshwater Flux Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, L.; Xie, P.; Wu, S.

2017-12-01

Taking advantages of the complementary nature of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) measurements from the in-situ (CTDs, shipboard, Argo floats, etc.) and satellite retrievals from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA), the Aquarius of a joint venture between US and Argentina, and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) of national Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a technique is developed at NOAA/NCEP/CPC to construct an analysis of monthly SSS, called the NOAA Blended Analysis of Sea-Surface Salinity (BASS). The algorithm is a two-steps approach, i.e. to remove the bias in the satellite data through Probability Density Function (PDF) matching against co-located in situ measurements; and then to combine the bias-corrected satellite data with the in situ measurements through the Optimal Interpolation (OI) method. The BASS SSS product is on a 1° by 1° grid over the global ocean for a 7-year period from 2010. Combined with the NOAA/NCEP/CPC CMORPH satellite precipitation (P) estimates and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) evaporation (E) fields, a suite of monthly package of the SSS and oceanic freshwater flux (E and P) was developed to monitor the global oceanic water cycle and SSS on a monthly basis. The SSS in BASS product is a suite of long-term SSS and fresh water flux data sets with temporal homogeneity and inter-component consistency better suited for the examination of the long-term changes and monitoring. It presents complete spatial coverage and improved resolution and accuracy, which facilitates the diagnostic analysis of the relationship and co-variability among SSS, freshwater flux, mixed layer processes, oceanic circulation, and assimilation of SSS into global models. At the AGU meeting, we will provide more details on the CPC salinity and fresh water flux data package and its applications in the monitoring and analysis of SSS variations in association with the ENSO and other major climate

JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Yumimoto

2017-09-01

Full Text Available A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1°  ×  1.1°. This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET (RMSE  =  0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE  =  28.1 %, MFB  =  0.6 %, and IOA  =  0.93. Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in

Intra-Seasonal Monthly Oscillations in Stratospheric NCEP Data and Model Results

Science.gov (United States)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Huang, F. T.; Nash, E. R.

2009-01-01

Intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) are observed in the zonal-mean of mesospheric wind and temperature measurements-and the numerical spectral model (NSM) generates such oscillations. Relatively large temperature ISO are evident also in stratospheric CPC (NCEP) data at high latitudes, where the NSM produces amplitudes around 3 K at 30 km. Analyzing the NCEP data for the years 1996-2006, we find in Fourier spectra signatures of oscillations with periods between 1.7 and 3 months. With statistical confidence levels exceeding 70%, the spectral features are induced by nonlinear interactions involving the annual and semi-annual variations. The synthesized data show for the 10-year average that the temperature ISO peak in winter, having amplitudes close to 4 K. The synthesized complete spectrum for periods around 2 months produces oscillations, varying from year to year, which can reach peak amplitudes of 15 and 5 K respectively at northern and southern polar latitudes.

Analysis of Climatic and Environmental Changes Using CLEARS Web-GIS Information-Computational System: Siberia Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, A. G.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Shulgina, T. M.

2011-12-01

Analysis of recent climatic and environmental changes in Siberia performed on the basis of the CLEARS (CLimate and Environment Analysis and Research System) information-computational system is presented. The system was developed using the specialized software framework for rapid development of thematic information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies. It comprises structured environmental datasets, computational kernel, specialized web portal implementing web mapping application logic, and graphical user interface. Functional capabilities of the system include a number of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, data processing and visualization. At present a number of georeferenced datasets is available for processing including two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 and ERA Interim Reanalysis, meteorological observation data for the territory of the former USSR, and others. Firstly, using functionality of the computational kernel employing approved statistical methods it was shown that the most reliable spatio-temporal characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in Siberia in the second half of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries are provided by ERA-40/ERA Interim Reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA Reanalysis, respectively. Namely those Reanalyses are statistically consistent with reliable in situ meteorological observations. Analysis of surface temperature and precipitation dynamics for the territory of Siberia performed on the base of the developed information-computational system reveals fine spatial and temporal details in heterogeneous patterns obtained for the region earlier. Dynamics of bioclimatic indices determining climate change impact on structure and functioning of regional vegetation cover was investigated as well. Analysis shows significant positive trends of growing season length accompanied by statistically significant increase of sum of growing degree days and total

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Water vapour trends at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, L.; Mattar, C.; Da-Silva, L.; Abarca, R.

2009-01-01

In this paper water vapour trends were analyzed at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003. It was carried out using in situ values retrieved by 15 radiosonde stations and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis data (NNR). NNR and radiosonde water vapour data were linked to Koeppen-Geiger climatic zones to calculate anomalies, trends, and the non-parametric statistical significance for each mandatory level. A methodology used to process radiosonde data is shown. Water vapour trends in tropical climates presented positive decadal trends. This is statistically significant for the first mandatory levels retrieved by radiosonde. The highest values are presented in average with NNR; the decadal magnitude for climate Af being 0.15 g kg -1 for 1000 and 925 h Pa, and for climate As 0.27 g kg -1 for 925 and 850 h Pa. For non-tropical climates the magnitude trends of specific humidity are affected by the spatial resolution of NNR, which is seen when comparing the results received by the radiosondes. Finally, this paper shows the initial results of water vapour content trends in the last three decades over South America. Strong climatic events and synoptic oscillations were not commented upon.

Seasonal variations of stable isotope in precipitation and moisture transport at Yushu,eastern Tibetan Plateau

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2008-01-01

Precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau, shows strong fluctuation and lack of clear seasonality. The seasonal pattern of precipitation stable isotope at Yushu is apparently different from either that of the southwest monsoon region to the south or that of the inland region to the north. This different seasonal pattern probably reflects the shift of different moisture sources. In this paper, we present the spatial comparison of the seasonal patterns of precipitation δ 18O, and calculate the moisture transport flux by using the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. This allows us to discuss the relation between moisture transport flux and precipitation δ 18O. This study shows that both the southwest monsoon from south and inland air mass transport from north affected the seasonal precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Southwest monsoon brings the main part of the moisture, but southwest transport flux is weaker than in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. However, contribution of the inland moisture from north or local evaporation moisture is enhanced. The combined effect is the strong fluctuation of summer precipitation δ 18O at Yushu and comparatively poor seasonality.

Prediction of winter wheat high yield from remote sensing based model: application in United States and Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Roger, J. C.; Skakun, S.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.

2017-12-01

Accurate and timely crop yield forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. In Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) and Franch et al. (2015) we developed an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat yield. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season and the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. These methods were applied to MODIS CMG data in Ukraine, the US and China with errors around 10%. However, the NDVI is saturated for yield values higher than 4 MT/ha. As a consequence, the model had to be re-calibrated in each country and the validation of the national yields showed low correlation coefficients. In this study we present a new model based on the extrapolation of the pure wheat signal (100% of wheat within the pixel) from MODIS data at 1km resolution and using the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI). The model has been applied to monitor the national yield of winter wheat in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2016.

Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

Science.gov (United States)

Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2017-04-01

The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing

NCEP/CPC L3 Half Hourly 4km Global (60S - 60N) Merged IR V1 (GPM_MERGIR) at GES DISC

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data originate from NOAA/NCEP. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS is making the data available originally in binary format, in a weekly rotating...

An Overview of the GEOS-5 Aerosol Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter Richard; Damenov, Anton Spasov; Buchard-Marchant, Virginie; Randles, Cynthia A.; Gupta, Pawan

2011-01-01

GEOS-5 is the latest version of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) earth system model. GEOS-5 contains components for atmospheric circulation and composition (including data assimilation), ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and land surface processes. In addition to traditional meteorological parameters, GEOS-5 includes modules representing the atmospheric composition, most notably aerosols and tropospheric/stratospheric chemical constituents, taking explicit account of the impact of these constituents on the radiative processes of the atmosphere. MERRA is a NASA meteorological reanalysis for the satellite era (1979-present) using GEOS-5. This project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales. As a first step towards an integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA), the GMAO is extending MERRA with reanalyses for other components of the earth system: land, ocean, bio-geochemistry and atmospheric constituents. In this talk we will present results from the MERRA-driven aerosol reanalysis covering the Aqua period (2003-present). The assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS-5 involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a Neural Net scheme that translates MODIS radiances into AERONET calibrated AOD. These measurements are further quality controlled using an adaptive buddy check scheme, and assimilated using the Local Displacement Ensemble (LDE) methodology. For this reanalysis, GEOS-5 runs at a nominal 50km horizontal resolution with 72 vertical layers (top at approx. 8Skm). GEOS-5 is driven by daily biomass burning emissions derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. We will present a summary of our efforts to validate such dataset. The GEOS-5 assimilated aerosol fields are first validated by comparison to independent in-situ measurements (AERONET and PM2.5 surface concentrations). In order to asses aerosol

A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westermann, S.; Østby, T. I.; Gisnås, K.

2015-01-01

Permafrost is a key element of the terrestrial cryosphere which makes mapping and monitoring of its state variables an imperative task. We present a modeling scheme based on remotely sensed land surface temperatures and reanalysis products from which mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) can be ...... with gradually decreasing permafrost probabilities. The study exemplifies the unexploited potential of remotely sensed data sets in permafrost mapping if they are employed in multi-sensor multi-source data fusion approaches.......Permafrost is a key element of the terrestrial cryosphere which makes mapping and monitoring of its state variables an imperative task. We present a modeling scheme based on remotely sensed land surface temperatures and reanalysis products from which mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) can...

Geoinformation web-system for processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data

Science.gov (United States)

Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

2010-12-01

Developed working model of information-computational system aimed at scientific research in area of climate change is presented. The system will allow processing and analysis of large archives of geophysical data obtained both from observations and modeling. Accumulated experience of developing information-computational web-systems providing computational processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data was used during the implementation (Gordov et al, 2007; Okladnikov et al, 2008; Titov et al, 2009). Functional capabilities of the system comprise a set of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, processing and visualization of data. At present five archives of data are available for processing: 1st and 2nd editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, and NOAA-CIRES XX Century Global Reanalysis Version I. To provide data processing functionality a computational modular kernel and class library providing data access for computational modules were developed. Currently a set of computational modules for climate change indices approved by WMO is available. Also a special module providing visualization of results and writing to Encapsulated Postscript, GeoTIFF and ESRI shape files was developed. As a technological basis for representation of cartographical information in Internet the GeoServer software conforming to OpenGIS standards is used. Integration of GIS-functionality with web-portal software to provide a basis for web-portal’s development as a part of geoinformation web-system is performed. Such geoinformation web-system is a next step in development of applied information-telecommunication systems offering to specialists from various scientific fields unique opportunities of performing reliable analysis of heterogeneous geophysical data using approved computational algorithms. It will allow a wide range of researchers to work with geophysical data without specific programming

Responses of Mixed-Phase Cloud Condensates and Cloud Radiative Effects to Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations in NCAR CAM5 and DOE ACME Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Shi, Y.; Wu, M.; Zhang, K.

2017-12-01

Mixed-phase clouds frequently observed in the Arctic and mid-latitude storm tracks have the substantial impacts on the surface energy budget, precipitation and climate. In this study, we first implement the two empirical parameterizations (Niemand et al. 2012 and DeMott et al. 2015) of heterogeneous ice nucleation for mixed-phase clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy Version 1 (ACME1). Model simulated ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations based on Niemand et al. and DeMott et al. are compared with those from the default ice nucleation parameterization based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) in CAM5 and ACME, and with in situ observations. Significantly higher INP concentrations (by up to a factor of 5) are simulated from Niemand et al. than DeMott et al. and CNT especially over the dust source regions in both CAM5 and ACME. Interestingly the ACME model simulates higher INP concentrations than CAM5, especially in the Polar regions. This is also the case when we nudge the two models' winds and temperature towards the same reanalysis, indicating more efficient transport of aerosols (dust) to the Polar regions in ACME. Next, we examine the responses of model simulated cloud liquid water and ice water contents to different INP concentrations from three ice nucleation parameterizations (Niemand et al., DeMott et al., and CNT) in CAM5 and ACME. Changes in liquid water path (LWP) reach as much as 20% in the Arctic regions in ACME between the three parameterizations while the LWP changes are smaller and limited in the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes in CAM5. Finally, the impacts on cloud radiative forcing and dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds are quantified with the three ice nucleation parameterizations in CAM5 and ACME.

The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

Science.gov (United States)

Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens

2014-05-01

Accurate and long time series of hydrological data are important for understanding land surface water and energy budgets in many parts of the world, as well as for improving real-time hydrological monitoring and climate change anticipation. The ultimate goal of the present work is to produce a multi-decadal "land surface hydrological reanalysis" dataset with retrospective and updated hydrological states and fluxes that are constrained to available in-situ river discharge measurements. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), which is a large-scale hydrological model intended for global to regional studies. PCR-GLOBWB provides a grid-based representation of terrestrial hydrology with a typical spatial resolution of approximately 50×50 km (currently 0.5° globally) on a daily basis. For each grid cell, PCR-GLOBWB simulates moisture storage in two vertically stacked soil layers as well as the water exchange between the soil and the atmosphere and the underlying groundwater reservoir. Exchange to the atmosphere comprises precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, as well as snow accumulation and melt, which are all simulated by considering vegetation phenology and sub-grid variations of elevation, land cover and soil saturation distribution. The model includes improved schemes for runoff-infiltration partitioning, interflow, groundwater recharge and baseflow, as well as river routing of discharge. It also dynamically simulates water storage in reservoirs, water demand and the withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. By embedding the PCR-GLOBWB model in an Ensemble Kalman Filter framework, we calibrate the model parameters based on the discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre. The parameters calibrated are related to snow accumulation and melt, runoff-infiltration partitioning, groundwater recharge, channel discharge and baseflow processes, as well as pre-factors to correct forcing precipitation

Multimodel evaluation of cloud phase transition using satellite and reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Cesana, G.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.; Li, J.-L. F.

2015-08-01

We take advantage of climate simulations from two multimodel experiments to characterize and evaluate the cloud phase partitioning in 16 general circulation models (GCMs), specifically the vertical structure of the transition between liquid and ice in clouds. We base our analysis on the ratio of ice condensates to the total condensates (phase ratio, PR). Its transition at 90% (PR90) and its links with other relevant variables are evaluated using the GCM-Oriented Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation Cloud Product climatology, reanalysis data, and other satellite observations. In 13 of 16 models, the PR90 transition height occurs too low (6 km to 8.4 km) and at temperatures too warm (-13.9°C to -32.5°C) compared to observations (8.6 km, -33.7°C); features consistent with a lack of supercooled liquid with respect to ice above 6.5 km. However, this bias would be slightly reduced by using the lidar simulator. In convective regimes (more humid air and precipitation), the observed cloud phase transition occurs at a warmer temperature than for subsidence regimes (less humid air and precipitation). Only few models manage to roughly replicate the observed correlations with humidity (5/16), vertical velocity (5/16), and precipitation (4/16); 3/16 perform well for all these parameters (MPI-ESM, NCAR-CAM5, and NCHU). Using an observation-based Clausius-Clapeyron phase diagram, we illustrate that the Bergeron-Findeisen process is a necessary condition for models to represent the observed features. Finally, the best models are those that include more complex microphysics.

Facilitating NCAR Data Discovery by Connecting Related Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Rosati, A.

2012-12-01

Linking datasets, creators, and users by employing the proper standards helps to increase the impact of funded research. In order for users to find a dataset, it must first be named. Data citations play the important role of giving datasets a persistent presence by assigning a formal "name" and location. This project focuses on the next step of the "name-find-use" sequence: enhancing discoverability of NCAR data by connecting related resources on the web. By examining metadata schemas that document datasets, I examined how Semantic Web approaches can help to ensure the widest possible range of data users. The focus was to move from search engine optimization (SEO) to information connectivity. Two main markup types are very visible in the Semantic Web and applicable to scientific dataset discovery: The Open Archives Initiative-Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE - www.openarchives.org) and Microdata (HTML5 and www.schema.org). My project creates pilot aggregations of related resources using both markup types for three case studies: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset and related publications, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PSDI) animation and image files from NCAR's Visualization Lab (VisLab), and the multidisciplinary data types and formats from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS). This project documents the differences between these markups and how each creates connectedness on the web. My recommendations point toward the most efficient and effective markup schema for aggregating resources within the three case studies based on the following assessment criteria: ease of use, current state of support and adoption of technology, integration with typical web tools, available vocabularies and geoinformatic standards, interoperability with current repositories and access portals (e.g. ESG, Java), and relation to data citation tools and methods.

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.; Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Bollmeyer, C.

2014-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers 6 years (2007-2012) and is currently extended to 16 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Synoptic climatology of the long-distance dispersal of white pine blister rust I. Development of an upper level synoptic classification

Science.gov (United States)

K. L. Frank; L. S. Kalkstein; B. W. Geils; H. W. Thistle

2008-01-01

This study developed a methodology to temporally classify large scale, upper level atmospheric conditions over North America, utilizing a newly-developed upper level synoptic classification (ULSC). Four meteorological variables: geopotential height, specific humidity, and u- and v-wind components, at the 500 hPa level over North America were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR...

Web-GIS approach for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced data

Science.gov (United States)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales [1]. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required [2]. Dedicated information-computational system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is presented. It is based on combination of Web and GIS technologies according to Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards, and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library (http://www.geoext.org), ExtJS Framework (http://www.sencha.com/products/extjs) and OpenLayers software (http://openlayers.org). The main advantage of the system lies in it's capability to perform integrated analysis of time series of georeferenced data obtained from different sources (in-situ observations, model results, remote sensing data) and to combine the results in a single map [3, 4] as WMS and WFS layers in a web-GIS application. Also analysis results are available for downloading as binary files from the graphical user interface or can be directly accessed through web mapping (WMS) and web feature (WFS) services for a further processing by the user. Data processing is performed on geographically distributed computational cluster comprising data storage systems and corresponding computational nodes. Several geophysical datasets represented by NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, reanalysis of Monitoring

Hydrology of major North American watersheds as simulated by the CRCM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Music, B.; Caya, D.

2008-01-01

The present study investigates the sensitivity of the water budget components simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) to the formulation of land surface processes, lateral boundary and initial conditions. This evaluation is a contribution to the estimation of the uncertainty associated to RCM simulations. Sensitivity analyses were carried out for climatological means, climatological annual cycles and interannual variability, over the period 1961-1999 for several North American River basins, selected to cover a wide range of climate conditions. Three pairs of simulations have been used: the first one was generated using two different land-surface schemes (LSSs): a simple Manabe-based and complex second-generation scheme; the simulations in the second pair differ in the driving data (NCEP/NCAR vs ERA40 reanalysis); and simulations in the third pair were started at different times (estimation of internal variability). An evaluation of the simulated water budget components is carried out. Results indicate that changes in climatological means and annual cycles of the water budget components resulting from different LLSs and from different lateral boundary conditions vary from basin to basin. Sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions was in general smaller than sensitivity to the LSS, although tended to be stronger for the northern basins. Interannual variability was not much affected by the change in LSS and driving data. Internal variability does not significantly affect neither the 39-year climatology nor the climatological annual cycles and interannual variability. Comparison with observations suggests that while simple Manabe-based LSS may be adequate for simulations of climatological means, skilful simulation of annual cycles require the use of a state-of-the-art LSS. (author)

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2c)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRV2c)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the...

Improving Convection and Cloud Parameterization Using ARM Observations and NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Guang J. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

2016-11-07

The fundamental scientific objectives of our research are to use ARM observations and the NCAR CAM5 to understand the large-scale control on convection, and to develop improved convection and cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs.

Towards a phenomena-based model assessment: The Case of Blocking over Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Jury, Martin W.; Barriopedro, David

2016-04-01

Atmospheric Blocking (AB) is a main phenomenon influencing the future climate change in Europe. Results of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) state with medium confidence that the frequency of AB over the Northern Hemisphere will not increase, while AB-related regional changes in Europe are uncertain especially in connection to AB intensity and its persistence. Here, we present results of a study connecting GCMs' ability to reproduce AB patterns and its abilities to correctly reproduce Temperature near the surface (tas) and Precipitation (pr). The used method detects AB by localizing high pressure systems between 55°N and 65°N with the use of geopotential height gradients on the 500 hPa level (zg500). Daily fields of tas and pr are connected to the results of the AB detection over continental Europe. The AB detection method accounts for AB frequency, AB duration and AB intensity and henceforth allowing a detailed comparison of AB representations in GCMs. Furthermore, the number of AB episodes, average AB duration, longitudinal extension and longitudinal propagation are taken into account. The AB detection is applied on zg500 fields of 3 Reanalysis (ERA40, JRA55 and NCEP/NCAR) and 10 GCMs of the CMIP5 between 1961 and 1990 over the Atlantic and over Europe. Most of the evaluated models underrepresent the spatial distribution of annual blocking days over Europe. This is also the case on seasonal timescales, with the largest underestimations during winter and only some overestimations during summer. There are indications that biases in the representation of AB are connected to overall GCM biases concerning the representation of surface fields. Especially when taking into account the seasonal as well as localized characteristics of the AB representation and the surface biases.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region

Science.gov (United States)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Crewell, Susanne; Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas; Keller, Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kneifel, Stefan; Ohlwein, Christian; Pscheidt, Ieda; Redl, Stephanie; Steinke, Sandra

2014-05-01

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on the regional reanalysis for Europe with a domain matching the CORDEX-EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). The COSMO reanalysis system comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-interim data. The reanalysis data set currently covers 6 years (2007-2012). The evaluation of the reanalyses is done using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations. The development and evaluation of the COSMO-based reanalysis for the CORDEX-Euro domain can be seen as a preparation for joint European activities on the development of an ensemble system of regional reanalyses for Europe.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

2016-12-01

The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

2016-11-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

Software Framework for Development of Web-GIS Systems for Analysis of Georeferenced Geophysical Data

Science.gov (United States)

Okladnikov, I.; Gordov, E. P.; Titov, A. G.

2011-12-01

Georeferenced datasets (meteorological databases, modeling and reanalysis results, remote sensing products, etc.) are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated software framework for rapid development of providing such support information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies has been created. The software framework consists of 3 basic parts: computational kernel developed using ITTVIS Interactive Data Language (IDL), a set of PHP-controllers run within specialized web portal, and JavaScript class library for development of typical components of web mapping application graphical user interface (GUI) based on AJAX technology. Computational kernel comprise of number of modules for datasets access, mathematical and statistical data analysis and visualization of results. Specialized web-portal consists of web-server Apache, complying OGC standards Geoserver software which is used as a base for presenting cartographical information over the Web, and a set of PHP-controllers implementing web-mapping application logic and governing computational kernel. JavaScript library aiming at graphical user interface development is based on GeoExt library combining ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. Based on the software framework an information-computational system for complex analysis of large georeferenced data archives was developed. Structured environmental datasets available for processing now include two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Moraes, Elisabete C.; Bertani, Gabriel; dos Santos, Thiago V.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.

2016-01-01

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001–December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance. PMID:27347957

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Moraes, Elisabete C; Bertani, Gabriel; Dos Santos, Thiago V; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2016-06-24

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001-December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver Angélil

2016-09-01

Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

Multiple parameters anomalies for verifying the geosystem spheres coupling effect: a case study of the 2010 Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuo Zheng

2014-08-01

Full Text Available In the research of earthquake anomaly recognition, the coupling effect of multiple geosystem spheres can be expected to reasonably interpretating the correlation between various anomalous signals before strong earthquake. Specially, the development of the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere (LAI coupling model has been accepted as verified by some experimental, thermal and electromagnetic data. However, quasi-synchronous anomalies of the multiple parameters, including thermal, radon and electromagnetic data, have not been reported in a single event case for verifying the geosystem spheres coupling effect. In this paper, we firstly summarized the reported studies on the power spectrum density (PSD in the ELF/VLF band and radon data recorded from Guza seismic station. Then, historical surface latent heat flux (SLHF data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project was employed for investigating anomalous change in a month before the April 14, 2010, Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake which is one of the typical intra-continental earthquakes in Tibet Plateau. The results from spatial and temporal analysis revealed that anomalous fields of PSD and SLHF data were located close to the epicenter and the ends of some active faults at Bayan Har Block and all anomalous dates converged between April 8 and 11 (6 to 3 days before the Yushu earthquake. Therefore, we suggest that the anomalies of multiple parameters before the main shock are related with the Yushu earthquake. This paper could give an ideal case study to verify the geosystem spheres coupling effect happened in a single event.

Interannual Variation of the Surface Temperature of Tropical Forests from Satellite Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huilin Gao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Land surface temperatures (LSTs within tropical forests contribute to climate variations. However, observational data are very limited in such regions. This study used passive microwave remote sensing data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS, providing observations under all weather conditions, to investigate the LST over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The SSM/I and SSMIS data were collected from 1996 to 2012. The morning and afternoon observations from passive microwave remote sensing facilitate the investigation of the interannual changes of LST anomalies on a diurnal basis. As a result of the variability of cloud cover and the corresponding reduction of solar radiation, the afternoon LST anomalies tend to vary more than the morning LST anomalies. The dominant spatial and temporal patterns for interseasonal variations of the LST anomalies over the tropical rainforest were analyzed. The impacts of droughts and El Niños on this LST were also investigated. Differences between early morning and late afternoon LST anomalies were identified by the remote sensing product, with the morning LST anomalies controlled by humidity (according to comparisons with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data.

Revista Espinhaço entrevistaDra. Bette Otto Bliesner(NCAR Boulder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kourosh Behzadian

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Dra. Bette Otto Bliesner foi entrevistada pela Revista Espinhaço durante o BIARI 2016, que ocorreu em Providence (EUA na Brown University. Para este volume especial da Revista Espihaço, a Dra. Bette, pesquisadora do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR e especialista em modelagem climática e paleo-climatologia, traz reflexões sobre seu recente trabalho no IPCC.Esta entrevista foi conduzida por Kourosh Behzadian (University of West London, Douglas Sathler (FIH/Cegeo/UFVJM and Lorena Fleury (UFRGS.

A reanalysis of resistive size effects in tungsten

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sambles, J.R.; Mundy, J.N.

1983-01-01

A reanalysis of available data on the influence of surface scattering upon the resistivity of high-purity tungsten is presented. It is shown that some of the data appear to fit quite well to Soffer's model of surface scattering. From this new analysis values for the product rhosub(infinity)lambdasub(infinity) (bulk resistivity times bulk mean free path) may be obtained lying in the range 1.0-1.7 fΩ m 2 . Early data, which could not be interpreted using Fuchs' theory of surface scattering, may now be explained and yield surface roughness ratios (ratio of root mean square height of deviations from the mean surface to the Fermi wavelength) of the order of 0.2-2.5, typical of the value expected for atomically smooth to atomically rough surfaces. However, more recent data violate Soffer's theory in a convincing fashion. They illustrate fully the severe dangers of using a theory to interpret data for which it is not at all applicable. The Fermi surface of tungsten by no means approximates a simple sphere (one of the basic assumptions of the Soffer model). Hence such a naive treatment as Fuchs' leads to meaningless parameters such as quoted above. This paper is presented as a warning to all experimentalists who attempt to interpret data from metals with complex Fermi surfaces in a simple-minded fashion (e.g. using Fuchs' model). (author)

Land Surface Model (LSM 1.0) for Ecological, Hydrological, Atmospheric Studies

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NCAR LSM 1.0 is a land surface model developed to examine biogeophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere interactions, especially the effects of land surfaces...

Approximate Reanalysis in Topology Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded; Bendsøe, Martin P.; Sigmund, Ole

2009-01-01

In the nested approach to structural optimization, most of the computational effort is invested in the solution of the finite element analysis equations. In this study, the integration of an approximate reanalysis procedure into the framework of topology optimization of continuum structures...

The modified NCEP ATP III criteria maybe better than the IDF criteria in diagnosing Metabolic Syndrome among Malays in Kuala Lumpur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bulgiba Awang

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Metabolic Syndrome is associated with increased risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. However, different diagnostic criteria have been recommended by different expert groups. In Malaysia, there is a lack of research comparing these different diagnostic criteria. Therefore, it is our aim to study the concordance between the IDF and the modified NCEP ATP III definitions of Metabolic Syndrome among a Malay cohort in Kuala Lumpur; and to demonstrate if all participants have the same cardiometabolic risks. Methods This was an analytical cross sectional study. Ethics approval was obtained and informed consent was given by all participants. Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose and lipid profile were taken following standard protocols. Results Metabolic Syndrome was diagnosed in 41.4% and 38.2% participants using the modified NCEP and IDF criteria respectively. Among those diagnosed with Metabolic Syndrome by modified NCEP, 7.6% were missed by the IDF criteria. Participants diagnosed by the modified NCEP criteria had lower BMI and waist circumference but had higher cardiometabolic risks than those diagnosed with both criteria. Their blood pressure, glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride were more adverse than the IDF group. This demonstrated that central obesity may not be a prerequisite for the development of increased cardiometabolic risks within this Malay cohort. Conclusion Metabolic syndrome is common in this Malay cohort regardless of the criterion used. The modified NCEP ATP III criteria may be more suitable in diagnosis of metabolic syndrome for this Malay cohort.

The NCAR Research Data Archive's Hybrid Approach for Data Discovery and Access

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, D.; Worley, S. J.

2013-12-01

The NCAR Research Data Archive (RDA http://rda.ucar.edu) maintains a variety of data discovery and access capabilities for it's 600+ dataset collections to support the varying needs of a diverse user community. In-house developed and standards-based community tools offer services to more than 10,000 users annually. By number of users the largest group is external and access the RDA through web based protocols; the internal NCAR HPC users are fewer in number, but typically access more data volume. This paper will detail the data discovery and access services maintained by the RDA to support both user groups, and show metrics that illustrate how the community is using the services. The distributed search capability enabled by standards-based community tools, such as Geoportal and an OAI-PMH access point that serves multiple metadata standards, provide pathways for external users to initially discover RDA holdings. From here, in-house developed web interfaces leverage primary discovery level metadata databases that support keyword and faceted searches. Internal NCAR HPC users, or those familiar with the RDA, may go directly to the dataset collection of interest and refine their search based on rich file collection metadata. Multiple levels of metadata have proven to be invaluable for discovery within terabyte-sized archives composed of many atmospheric or oceanic levels, hundreds of parameters, and often numerous grid and time resolutions. Once users find the data they want, their access needs may vary as well. A THREDDS data server running on targeted dataset collections enables remote file access through OPENDAP and other web based protocols primarily for external users. In-house developed tools give all users the capability to submit data subset extraction and format conversion requests through scalable, HPC based delayed mode batch processing. Users can monitor their RDA-based data processing progress and receive instructions on how to access the data when it is

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

A Dynamic Analysis of the Role of the Planetary- and Synoptic-Scale in the Summer of 2010 Blocking Episodes over the European Part of Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anthony R. Lupo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available During the summer of 2010, an unusually persistent blocking episode resulted in anomalously warm dry weather over the European part of Russia. The excessive heat resulted in forest and peat fires, impacted terrestrial ecosystems, greatly increased pollution in urban areas, and increased mortality rates in the region. Using the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis datasets, the climatological and dynamic character of blocking events for summer 2010 and a precursor May blocking event were examined. We found that these events were stronger and longer lived than typical warm season events. Using dynamic methods, we demonstrate that the July 2010 event was a synoptic-scale dominant blocking event; unusual in the summer season. An analysis of phase diagrams demonstrated that the planetary-scale did not become stable until almost one week after block onset. For all other blocking events studied here and previously, the planetary-scale became stable around onset. Analysis using area integrated regional enstrophy (IRE demonstrated that for the July 2010 event, synoptic-scale IRE increased at block onset. This was similar for the May 2010 event, but different from case studies examined previously that demonstrated the planetary-scale IRE was prominent at block onset.

Continuous measurements of methane from a tower network over Siberia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasakawa, M.; Machida, T.; Saeki, T.; Koyama, Y.; Maksyutov, S.; Shimoyama, K.; Tsuda, N.; Suto, H.; Arshinov, M.; Davydov, D.; Fofonov, A.; Krasnov, O.

2010-01-01

We have been conducting continuous measurements of Methane (CH 4 ) concentration from an expanding network of towers (JR-STATION: Japan-Russia Siberian Tall Tower Inland Observation Network) located in taiga, steppe and wetland biomes of Siberia since 2004. High daytime means (>2000 ppb) observed simultaneously at several towers during winter, together with in situ weather data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, indicate that high pressure systems caused CH 4 accumulation at subcontinental scale due to the widespread formation of an inversion layer. Daytime means sometimes exceeded 2000 ppb, particularly in the summer of 2007 when temperature and precipitation rates were anomalously high over West Siberia, which implies that CH 4 emission from wetlands were exceptionally high in 2007. Many hot spots detected by MODIS in the summer of 2007 illustrate that the contribution of biomass burning also cannot be neglected. Daytime mean CH 4 concentrations from the Siberian tower sites were generally higher than CH 4 values reported at NOAA coastal sites in the same latitudinal zone, and the difference in concentrations between two sets of sites was reproduced with a coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport model. Simulations of emissions from different CH 4 sources suggested that the major contributor to variation switched from wetlands during summer to fossil fuel during winter.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Simulation and spatiotemporal pattern of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Central Asia using RegCM.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Xianyong; Long, Aihua; Wu, Yiping; Yin, Gang; Wang, Hao; Ji, Xiaonan

2018-02-26

Central Asia is a region that has a large land mass, yet meteorological stations in this area are relatively scarce. To address this data issues, in this study, we selected two reanalysis datasets (the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR) and downscaled them to 40 × 40 km using RegCM. Then three gridded datasets (the CRU, APHRO, and WM) that were extrapolated from the observations of Central Asian meteorological stations to evaluate the performance of RegCM and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and air temperature. We found that since the 1960s, the air temperature in Xinjiang shows an increasing trend and the distribution of precipitation in the Tianshan area is quite complex. The precipitation is increasing in the south of the Tianshan Mountains (Southern Xinjiang, SX) and decreasing in the mountainous areas. The CRU and WM data indicate that precipitation in the north of the Tianshan Mountains (Northern Xinjiang, NX) is increasing, while the APHRO data show an opposite trend. The downscaled results from RegCM are generally consistent with the extrapolated gridded datasets in terms of the spatiotemporal patterns. We believe that our results can provide useful information in developing a regional climate model in Central Asia where meteorological stations are scarce.

Will the western Pacific subtropical high constantly intensify in the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yanyan; Li, Xiaofan; Wang, Huijun

2016-07-01

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) features lower-level southerlies or southwesterlies at its western and southern edges that transport amount of water vapor into East Asia, and it exerts a large influence on the East Asian summer climate. This paper evaluates the historical (1950-2005) spatial distribution and variability in the summer WPSH at 850 hPa using 28 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) relative to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. To avoid the artificial influence caused by global warming, this study primarily investigates the 850-hPa eddy geopotential height and the horizontal winds. The results show that most of the CMIP5 models reliably reproduce the geographical distribution and spatial variability in the WPSH. Four models (bcc-csm1-1, CESM1-CAM5, GFDL-ESM2G and inmcm4) generally perform well in simulating the eastward-recessed interdecadal variation in the WPSH during 1979-2005 relative to 1950-1978, with a significant cyclone anomaly appearing over the western Pacific and a decreasing trend in the WPSH index. Based on these four models, a multi-model ensemble projects a weaker WPSH during 2026-2070 relative to 2010-2025 and 2071-2100 under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario.

Same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michalakes, J.

1997-12-31

The Pennsylvania State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is a limited-area model of atmospheric systems, now in its fifth generation, MM5. Designed and maintained for vector and shared-memory parallel architectures, the official version of MM5 does not run on message-passing distributed memory (DM) parallel computers. The authors describe a same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5 using FLIC, the Fortran Loop and Index Converter. The resulting source is nearly line-for-line identical with the original source code. The result is an efficient distributed memory parallel option to MM5 that can be seamlessly integrated into the official version.

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Gruber

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub- surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (<1 km global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60° S is estimated to be 13–18 × 10⁶ km² or 9–14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16–21 × 10⁶ km². The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 10⁶ km². A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues

Variability of the Surface Meteorological Fields over Eurasia for the Recent 30 Years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basharin, D.V.

2009-10-01

On the basis of the Japanese reanalysis (JRA25) dataset (1979-2008), linear trends, interannual to decadal variability of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation fields over the Eurasian region have been studied. For the recent 30 years there are only significant positive linear trends of SAT in the northwestern part of the Eurasia/eastern Asia in winter and central Europe in summer. Areas with significant negative trends of SAT are absent. For precipitation field there are no significant tendencies except for the significantly positive area over England both in winter and in summer time. In winter, there are two areas with the opposite SLP tendencies: insignificant negative (to the north of 45-50N) and significant positive (to the south of 45-50N) one. These trends could be accompanied by the corresponding tendencies bee-hive reproduction and honey production in different regions of Ukraine. Space-time patterns of the first, second and third EOF of the fields under study are mainly determined by the NAO and in the less extent by the SO (only in spring-summer). It was found that the leading modes become more contributive over the Eurasia for the last 30 years comparing with NCEP data for the previous period (1950-2001). It could imply that an internal signal of the ocean-atmosphere system, which determines space-time patterns over Eurasia, has arisen. Intercomparison of the space-time EOF patterns between JRA25 and NCEP (1950-2001) re-analyses show that in autumn, winter and spring the first 3-4 corresponding time coefficients stay at the same order (coefficient correlations between them are significant), while in summer such correspondence in order of modes is changed. (author)

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2016-07-28

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975–2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December–May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Future projections of synoptic weather types over the Arabian Peninsula during the twenty-first century using an ensemble of CMIP5 models

Science.gov (United States)

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew F.

2017-10-01

An assessment of future change in synoptic conditions over the Arabian Peninsula throughout the twenty-first century was performed using 20 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. We employed the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from model output together with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and compared the relevant circulation types produced by the Lamb classification scheme for the base period 1975-2000. Overall, model results illustrated good agreement with the reanalysis, albeit with a tendency to underestimate cyclonic (C) and southeasterly (SE) patterns and to overestimate anticyclones and directional flows. We also investigated future projections for each circulation-type during the rainy season (December-May) using three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), comprising RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Overall, two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) revealed a statistically significant increase in weather types favoring above normal rainfall in the region (e.g., C and E-types). In contrast, weather types associated with lower amounts of rainfall (e.g., anticyclones) are projected to decrease in winter but increase in spring. For all scenarios, there was consistent agreement on the sign of change (i.e., positive/negative) for the most frequent patterns (e.g., C, SE, E and A-types), whereas the sign was uncertain for less recurrent types (e.g., N, NW, SE, and W). The projected changes in weather type frequencies in the region can be viewed not only as indicators of change in rainfall response but may also be used to inform impact studies pertinent to water resource planning and management, extreme weather analysis, and agricultural production.

Observational evidence of quasi-27-day oscillation propagating from the lower atmosphere to the mesosphere over 20° N

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. M. Huang

2015-10-01

Full Text Available By using meteor radar, radiosonde and satellite observations over 20° N and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 81 days from 22 December 2004 to 12 March 2005, a quasi-27-day oscillation propagating from the troposphere to the mesosphere is reported. A pronounced 27-day periodicity is observed in the raw zonal wind from meteor radar. Spectral analysis shows that the oscillation also occurs in the meridional wind and temperature and propagates westward with wavenumber s = 1; thus the oscillation is of Rossby wave type. The oscillation attains a large amplitude of about 12 m s−1 in the eastward wind shear region of the troposphere. When the wind shear reverses, its amplitude rapidly decays, and the background wind gradually evolves to be westward. However, the oscillation can penetrate through the weak westward wind field due to its relatively large phase speed. After this, the oscillation restrengthens with its upward propagation and reaches about 20 m s−1 in the mesosphere. Reanalysis data show that the oscillation can propagate to the mid and high latitudes from the low latitudes and has large amplitudes over there. There is another interesting phenomenon that a quasi-46-day oscillation appears simultaneously in the troposphere, but it cannot penetrate through the westward wind field because of its smaller phase speed. In the observational interval, a quasi-27-day periodicity in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR and specific humidity is found in a latitudinal zone of 5–20° N. Thus the quasi-27-day oscillation may be an atmospheric response to forcing due to the convective activity with a period of about 27 days in the tropical region.

Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teng, Haiyan; Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO (United States)

2008-06-15

Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950-1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. (orig.)

Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liang, Jianyin [CMA Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou, Guangdong (China); Yang, Song; Kumar, Arun [NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [George Mason University, Department of Climate Dynamics, Fairfax, VA (United States); Zhang, Zuqiang [CMA National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

2009-06-15

The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. The first most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions including the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. It is also highly skillful in capturing the air-sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features, as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns. (orig.)

Spectral wave characteristics off Gangavaram, Bay of Bengal.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

SanilKumar, V.; Dubhashi, K.K.; Nair, T.M.B.

the seasonal change in wind pattern. These data are provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/. Kumar and Sajiv (2010) compared the buoy measured wind data with the NCEP reanalysis data for a location...

Application of web-GIS approach for climate change study

Science.gov (United States)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Bogomolov, Vasily; Martynova, Yuliya; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. It is based on OGC standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The main advantage of the system lies in a possibility to perform mathematical and statistical data analysis, graphical visualization of results with GIS-functionality, and to prepare binary output files with just only a modern graphical web-browser installed on a common desktop computer connected to Internet. Several geophysical datasets represented by two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. And this list is extending. Also a functionality to run WRF and "Planet simulator" models was implemented in the system. Due to many preset parameters and limited time and spatial ranges set in the system these models have low computational power requirements and could be used in educational workflow for better

A conceptual prediction model for seasonal drought processes using atmospheric and oceanic standardized anomalies and its application to four recent severe regional drought events in China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; LU, G.; He, H.; Wu, Z.; He, J.

2017-12-01

Reliable drought prediction is fundamental for seasonal water management. Considering that drought development is closely related to the spatio-temporal evolution of large-scale circulation patterns, we develop a conceptual prediction model of seasonal drought processes based on atmospheric/oceanic Standardized Anomalies (SA). It is essentially the synchronous stepwise regression relationship between 90-day-accumulated atmospheric/oceanic SA-based predictors and 3-month SPI updated daily (SPI3). It is forced with forecasted atmospheric and oceanic variables retrieved from seasonal climate forecast systems, and it can make seamless drought prediction for operational use after a year-to-year calibration. Simulation and prediction of four severe seasonal regional drought processes in China were forced with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) operationally forecasted datasets, respectively. With the help of real-time correction for operational application, model application during four recent severe regional drought events in China revealed that the model is good at development prediction but weak in severity prediction. In addition to weakness in prediction of drought peak, the prediction of drought relief is possible to be predicted as drought recession. This weak performance may be associated with precipitation-causing weather patterns during drought relief. Based on initial virtual analysis on predicted 90-day prospective SPI3 curves, it shows that the 2009/2010 drought in Southwest China and 2014 drought in North China can be predicted and simulated well even for the prospective 1-75 day. In comparison, the prospective 1-45 day may be a feasible and acceptable lead time for simulation and prediction of the 2011 droughts in Southwest China and East China, after which the simulated and predicted developments clearly change.

Long-term variability of extreme waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobroliubov, Sergey

2013-04-01

In order to study extreme storm waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Sea we used the spectral wave model SWAN. Significant wave height, swell and sea height, direction of propagation, their length and period were calculated with the NCEP/NCAR (1,9°x1,9°, 4-daily) reanalysis wind forcing from 1948 to 2010 in the Caspian, Black and Baltic Seas and with the NCEP/CFSR (0,3°x0,3°, 1 hour) for the period from 1979 to 2010 in the Azov Sea. The calculations were performed on supercomputers of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU). The spatial resolution of the numerical grid was of order 5 km for the Caspian, Baltic and Black Seas, 2 km for the Azov Sea. These model wave hindcasts were used to calculate interannual and seasonal variability of the storm frequency, location and duration. The Initial Distribution Method and Annual Maxima Series Methods were used to study probable waves of a century reoccurrence. The long-term variability of extreme waves revealed different trends in the investigated seas. The Caspian and Azov seas decreased the storm activity, while in the Baltic Sea the number of storm cases increased and the Black Sea showed no significant trend. The of more than 12 m were observed in two centers in the middle part of the Caspian Sea and in the center of the Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea the extreme waves of the same probability of more than 14 m were found in the region to the south of the Crimean peninsula. In the Azov Sea the highest waves of a century reoccurrence do not exceed 5 m. The work was done in Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory, MSU under contract G.34.31.0007.

Comparação de produtos de precipitação para a América do Sul Comparison of precipitation products for South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucía Iracema Chipponelli Pinto

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Este trabalho compara cinco bancos de dados de precipitação para a América do Sul, para o período 2000 a 2004, considerando a variação meridional, a variação por diferentes bacias hidrográficas (Amazonas, Tocantins, São Francisco, Orinoco, Paraná/Prata, além das bacias dos rios da Patagônia e pelos principais tipos de vegetação (floresta tropical perene, floresta tropical semi-decídua, caatinga, cerrado e pampas. Foram utilizados três produtos provenientes da composição de dados observados com sensoriamento remoto (TRMM, CMAP e GPCP e dois de dados de reanálise (NCEP/NCAR e CPTEC. Os resultados indicam que os campos de intensidade média da precipitação anual dos diferentes produtos apresentam comportamento diferenciado entre si. Por exemplo, a reanálise do CPTEC não é capaz de representar os principais regimes de precipitação existentes no continente, demonstrando uma forte tendência em superestimar a intensidade média da precipitação no interior do nordeste brasileiro e subestimá-la na maioria das demais regiões. Os produtos que combinam dados de estações pluviométricas com os de sensoriamento remoto, mostram-se com valores bem próximos do esperado, principalmente o CMAP e GPCP.This work compares five precipitation datasets for South America, for the period 2000-2004, considering the meridional variation, the variation across the main continental watersheds (Amazonas, Tocantins, São Francisco, Orinoco, Paraná/Prata, in addition to the main Patagônia basins and across the main vegetation types (tropical evergreen forest, tropical deciduous forest, woodland, savanna and grassland/steppe. We compare three products based on a combination of rain gauge measurements and satellite data (TRMM, CMAP and GPCP and two based on reanalyzed meteorological datasets (NCEP/NCAR and CPTEC. The results indicate that the annual average precipitation fields of the different products present different behavior among them. For

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2016-03-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871-2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards. The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis, available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871-2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and under-estimated over the whole of France. Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature (T). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959-2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in

Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

2018-02-01

Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the surface, and...

AMOC variations in 1979-2008 simulated by NCEP operational ocean data assimilation system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Boyin [Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); National Climate Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David W. [Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-02-15

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between 1979 and 2008 are documented using the operational ocean analysis, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS), at the National Centers for Climate Prediction (NCEP). The maximum AMOC at 40 N is about 16 Sv in average with peak-to-peak variability of 3-4 Sv. The AMOC variations are dominated by an upward trend from 1980 to 1995, and a downward trend from 1995 to 2008. The maximum AMOC at 26.5 N is slightly weaker than hydrographic estimates and observations from mooring array. The dominant variability of the AMOC in 20 -65 N (the first EOF, 51% variance) is highly correlated with that in the subsurface temperature (the first EOF, 33% variance), and therefore, with density (the first EOF, 25% variance) in the North Atlantic, and is consistent with the observational estimates based on the World Ocean Database 2005. The dominant variabilities of AMOC and subsurface temperature are also analyzed in the context of possible links with the net surface heat flux, deep convection, western boundary current, and subpolar gyre. Variation in the net surface heat flux is further linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index which is found to lead AMOC variations by about 5 years. Our results indicate that AMOC variations can be documented based on an ocean analysis system such as GODAS. (orig.)

Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2011-05-15

In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

1998-01-01

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

Evaluation of gridded precipitation data for driving SWAT model in area upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue

2014-01-01

Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend-surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography.

Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Data for Driving SWAT Model in Area Upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue

2014-01-01

Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend - surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography. PMID:25409467

El ciclo anual de la hidrología de Colombia en relación con el ENSO y la NAO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

1998-01-01

. The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO phenomenon ENSO and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO on the annual cycle of the Colombian hydroclimatology is quantified. Results of the NCEP/NCAR Climatic Reanalysis Project are used to compare the climatology of the annual cycle of diverse variables and to evaluate the behavior during the extreme phases of ENSO. Of particular importance, during El Niño there is a weakening of the low-level westerly jet penetrating from the Pacific Ocean inland Colombia, that constitutes one main circulation mechanism that helps to explain the observed negative hydrological anomalies during El Niño in Colombia. Correlation analysis confirms the strong influence of ENSO and NAO on the annual cycle of rainfall and river discharges anomalies in Colombia, in particular during SON and DJF.

Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A

2017-08-28

Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

Ross sea ice motion, area flux, and deformation

Science.gov (United States)

kwok, Ron

2005-01-01

The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.

Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

Science.gov (United States)

Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

2017-05-01

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

Assessment of Bias in the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) Reanalysis Radar-Only Estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, B. R.; Prat, O. P.; Stevens, S. E.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, J.; Howard, K.

2014-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over Continental United States (CONUS) is nearly completed for the period covering from 2001 to 2012. Reanalysis data are available at 1-km and 5-minute resolution. An important step in generating the best possible precipitation data is to assess the bias in the radar-only product. In this work, we use data from a combination of rain gauge networks to assess the bias in the NMQ reanalysis. Rain gauge networks such as the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS), the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), the Climate Reference Network (CRN), and the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) are combined for use in the assessment. These rain gauge networks vary in spatial density and temporal resolution. The challenge hence is to optimally utilize them to assess the bias at the finest resolution possible. For initial assessment, we propose to subset the CONUS data in climatologically representative domains, and perform bias assessment using information in the Q2 dataset on precipitation type and phase.

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

2008-01-24

We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

A study on spectral energy for the end of the twentieth century the basis of the NCEP reanalysis-II

Science.gov (United States)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. A.; Yoshida, M. C.

2013-05-01

The energy cycle proposed by Lorenz (1955) is composed of the behavior of the average energy from the atmosphere and characteristics of atmospheric energy deviations from this average, respectively called basic state and perturbed state. However, it is possible to discretize the energy contained in the atmosphere disturbed state, decomposing the fields of the various disturbances or harmonics wave type, so as to measure and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength, this methodology described second Saltzman (1957). Therefore, in view of the spectral analysis as a methodological basis, this work aims to study the energy contained by the atmosphere in disturbed state. Considering the terms of power generation potential available for nth waves due to diabatic heating, represented by (G(n)), potential energy of nth wave (P(n)) and kinetic energy of nth wave (K(n)) and the conversion of energy between the energy nth kinetic and potential energy of waves nth waves given by (C(n)). The variables used in the calculation of the terms above are, temperature (T) orthogonal components of the wind (u, v, w) and geopotential height (G) from a data set from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) considering daily shared values on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°, distributed in 12 pressure levels (1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100 hPa ) for the 1970 to 1999 period. The results show that for kinetic energy of disturbance to nth wave, the amount of energy is somewhat dammed during for the first 10 wave numbers in this range are the planetary waves and waves. Observing this way, we can conclude that these waves are responsible for much of the kinetic energy in disturbed state. A characteristic and a difference in the distribution of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy disturbed total available to disturbance, is the derivative of the energy wavenumber presented by

Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

2017-12-01

With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

2012-04-01

The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

Science.gov (United States)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Spectral nudging to eliminate the effects of domain position and geometry in regional climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan

2004-07-01

It is well known that regional climate simulations are sensitive to the size and position of the domain chosen for calculations. Here we study the physical mechanisms of this sensitivity. We conducted simulations with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for June 2000 over North America at 50 km horizontal resolution using a 7500 km × 5400 km grid and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as boundary conditions. The position of the domain was displaced in several directions, always maintaining the U.S. in the interior, out of the buffer zone along the lateral boundaries. Circulation biases developed a large scale structure, organized by the Rocky Mountains, resulting from a systematic shifting of the synoptic wave trains that crossed the domain. The distortion of the large-scale circulation was produced by interaction of the modeled flow with the lateral boundaries of the nested domain and varied when the position of the grid was altered. This changed the large-scale environment among the different simulations and translated into diverse conditions for the development of the mesoscale processes that produce most of precipitation for the Great Plains in the summer season. As a consequence, precipitation results varied, sometimes greatly, among the experiments with the different grid positions. To eliminate the dependence of results on the position of the domain, we used spectral nudging of waves longer than 2500 km above the boundary layer. Moisture was not nudged at any level. This constrained the synoptic scales to follow reanalysis while allowing the model to develop the small-scale dynamics responsible for the rainfall. Nudging of the large scales successfully eliminated the variation of precipitation results when the grid was moved. We suggest that this technique is necessary for all downscaling studies with regional models with domain sizes of a few thousand kilometers and larger embedded in global models.

Relationship between changes in the upper and lower tropospheric water vapor: A revisit

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, M.; Sun, D. Z.; Zhang, G. J.

2017-12-01

Upper tropospheric water vapor response to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing is as important as the lower tropospheric water vapor response in determining climate sensitivity. Early studies using older versions of climate models have suggested that the upper- and lower-troposphere water vapor changes are more strongly coupled in the climate models than in the observations. Here we reexamine this issue using a state-of-the-art climate model—the NCAR community model CAM5. Specifically, we have calculated the correlations between interannual variations of specific humidity in all levels of the troposphere with that at the surface in CAM5 and in the observations (as represented by the updated ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis). It is found that the previously noted biases in how strongly upper tropospheric water vapor and lower troposphere water vapor are linked still exist in CAM5—the change in the tropical averaged upper tropospheric water vapor is more strongly correlated with the change in the surface. However, this bias disappears in the averaged correlation obtained by averaging the point-by-point correlations over the tropics. The spatial pattern of the point-by-point correlations reveals that the better agreement between the model and the observations is related to the opposite model biases in different regions: the correlation is weaker in the model in the western Pacific, but stronger in the central and eastern Pacific. Further analysis of precipitation fields suggests that the weaker (stronger) coupling between tropospheric water vapor and surface moisture over western (central-eastern) Pacific in model is related to weaker (stronger) simulated convective activities in these regions. More specifically, during El Nino, the model has excessive deep convection in the central Pacific, but too littler deep convection in western Pacific. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of climate change as well as in the context of how to improve the model

Continuous measurements of methane from a tower network over Siberia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sasakawa, M.; Machida, T.; Saeki, T.; Koyama, Y.; Maksyutov, S. (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)); Shimoyama, K. (Inst. of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido Univ., Hokkaido (Japan)); Tsuda, N. (Global Environmental Forum, Tokyo (Japan)); Suto, H. (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Japan)); Arshinov, M.; Davydov, D.; Fofonov, A.; Krasnov, O. (Inst. of Atmospheric Optics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation))

2010-11-15

We have been conducting continuous measurements of Methane (CH{sub 4}) concentration from an expanding network of towers (JR-STATION: Japan-Russia Siberian Tall Tower Inland Observation Network) located in taiga, steppe and wetland biomes of Siberia since 2004. High daytime means (>2000 ppb) observed simultaneously at several towers during winter, together with in situ weather data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, indicate that high pressure systems caused CH{sub 4} accumulation at subcontinental scale due to the widespread formation of an inversion layer. Daytime means sometimes exceeded 2000 ppb, particularly in the summer of 2007 when temperature and precipitation rates were anomalously high over West Siberia, which implies that CH{sub 4} emission from wetlands were exceptionally high in 2007. Many hot spots detected by MODIS in the summer of 2007 illustrate that the contribution of biomass burning also cannot be neglected. Daytime mean CH{sub 4} concentrations from the Siberian tower sites were generally higher than CH{sub 4} values reported at NOAA coastal sites in the same latitudinal zone, and the difference in concentrations between two sets of sites was reproduced with a coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport model. Simulations of emissions from different CH{sub 4} sources suggested that the major contributor to variation switched from wetlands during summer to fossil fuel during winter.

Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.

Science.gov (United States)

Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas; Wahl, Sabrina; Brune, Sebastian; Baehr, Johanna

2016-04-01

The decadal variability and its predictability of the surface net freshwater fluxes is compared in a set of retrospective predictions, all using the same model setup, and only differing in the implemented ocean initialisation method and ensemble generation method. The basic aim is to deduce the differences between the initialization/ensemble generation methods in view of the uncertainty of the verifying observational data sets. The analysis will give an approximation of the uncertainties of the net freshwater fluxes, which up to now appear to be one of the most uncertain products in observational data and model outputs. All ensemble generation methods are implemented into the MPI-ESM earth system model in the framework of the ongoing MiKlip project (www.fona-miklip.de). Hindcast experiments are initialised annually between 2000-2004, and from each start year 10 ensemble members are initialized for 5 years each. Four different ensemble generation methods are compared: (i) a method based on the Anomaly Transform method (Romanova and Hense, 2015) in which the initial oceanic perturbations represent orthogonal and balanced anomaly structures in space and time and between the variables taken from a control run, (ii) one-day-lagged ocean states from the MPI-ESM-LR baseline system (iii) one-day-lagged of ocean and atmospheric states with preceding full-field nudging to re-analysis in both the atmospheric and the oceanic component of the system - the baseline one MPI-ESM-LR system, (iv) an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) implemented into oceanic part of MPI-ESM (Brune et al. 2015), assimilating monthly subsurface oceanic temperature and salinity (EN3) using the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The hindcasts are evaluated probabilistically using fresh water flux data sets from four different reanalysis data sets: MERRA, NCEP-R1, GFDL ocean reanalysis and GECCO2. The assessments show no clear differences in the evaluations scores on regional scales. However, on the

An 8-year, high-resolution reanalysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, B.; Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

2017-12-01

This talk presents an overview of results from the GEOS-Carb reanalysis of retrievals of average-column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite missions. The reanalysis is a Level 3 (L3) product: a collection of 3D fields of carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios every 6 hours beginning in April 2009 going until the present on a grid with a 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels from the surface to 0.01 hPa. Using an assimilation methodology based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), the L3 fields are weighted averages of the two satellite retrievals and predictions from the GEOS general circulation model driven by assimilated meteorology from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). In places and times where there are a dense number of soundings, the observations dominate the predicted mixing ratios, while the model is used to fill in locations with fewer soundings, e.g., high latitudes and the Amazon. Blending the satellite observations with model predictions has at least two notable benefits. First, it provides a bridge for evaluating the satellite retrievals and their uncertainties against a heterogeneous collection of observations including those from surface sites, towers, aircraft, and soundings from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Extensive evaluations of the L3 reanalysis clearly demonstrate both the strength and the deficiency of the satellite retrievals. Second, it is possible to estimate variables from the reanalysis without introducing bias due to spatiotemporal variability in sounding coverage. For example, the assimilated product provides robust estimates of the monthly CO2 global growth rate. These monthly growth rate estimates show significant differences from estimates based on in situ observations, which have sparse coverage

Efficient reanalysis techniques for robust topology optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov

2012-01-01

efficient robust topology optimization procedures based on reanalysis techniques. The approach is demonstrated on two compliant mechanism design problems where robust design is achieved by employing either a worst case formulation or a stochastic formulation. It is shown that the time spent on finite...

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

Science.gov (United States)

Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation in NCEP Coupled Model Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanqiu Wang Kyong-Hwan Seo

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This study documents a detailed analysis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP using the Global Forecast System (GFS model version 2003 coupled with the Climate Forecast System model (CFS consisting of the 2003 version of GFS and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL Modular Ocean Model V.3 (MOM3. The analyses are based upon a 21-year simulation of AMIP-type with GFS and CMIP-type with CFS. It is found that air-sea coupling in CFS is shown to improve the coherence between convection and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO. The too fast propagation of convection from the Indian Ocean to the maritime continents and the western Pacific in GFS is improved (slowed down in CFS. Both GFS and CFS produce too strong intraseasonal convective heating and circulation anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific; further, the air-sea coupling in CFS enhances this unrealistic feature. The simulated mean slow phase speed of east ward propagating low-wavenumber components shown in the wavenumber-frequency spectra is due to the slow propagation in the central-eastern Pacific in both GFS and CFS. Errors in model climatology may have some effect upon the simulated MJO and two possible influences are: (i CFS fails to simulate the westerlies over maritime continents and western Pacific areas, resulting in an unrealistic representation of surface latent heat flux associated with the MJO; and (ii vertical easterly wind shear from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in CFS is much weaker than that in the observation and in GFS, which may adversely affect the eastward propagation of the simulated MJO.

An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

2018-03-01

The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications (RAL), Boulder, CO (United States)

2015-11-15

This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). We have made substantial progress in model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation, as discussed in Sections 2-4. Section 5 presents our success in data dissemination, while Section 6 discusses the scientific impacts of our work. Section 7 discusses education and mentoring success of our project, while Section 8 lists our relevant DOE services. All peer-reviewed papers that acknowledged this project are listed in Section 9. Highlights of our achievements include: • We have finished 20 papers (most published already) on model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation • The global datasets developed under this project have been permanently archived and publicly available • Some of our research results have already been implemented in WRF and CLM • Patrick Broxton and Michael Brunke have received their Ph.D. • PI Zeng has served on DOE proposal review panels and DOE lab scientific focus area (SFA) review panels

Challenges in the Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

Science.gov (United States)

Aquino, J.; Daniels, M. D.

2015-12-01

The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies (referred to as Principal Investigator, or PI, instruments). At the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, a poster (IN13B-3639) was presented outlining the components of Airborne Data Management included field phase data collection, formats, data archival and documentation, version control, storage practices, stewardship and obsolete data formats, and public data access. This talk will cover lessons learned, challenges associated with the above components, and current developments to address these challenges, including: tracking data workflows for aircraft instrumentation to facilitate identification, and correction, of gaps in these workflows; implementation of dataset versioning guidelines; and assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) to data and instrumentation to facilitate tracking data and facility use in publications.

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions associated with flash flooding in watersheds of the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Teale, N. G.; Quiring, S. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with flash flooding between 1987 and 2013 were examined. Flash floods were identified during this time period using USGS 15-minute discharge data at the Esopus Creek near Allaben, NY and Neversink River at Claryville, NY gauges. Overall, 25 flash floods were detected, occurring over 17 separate flash flood days. These flash flood days were compared to the days on which flash flood warnings encompassing the study area was issued by the National Weather Service. The success rate for which the flash flood warnings for Ulster County coincided with flash flood in the study watershed was 0.09, demonstrating the highly localized nature of flash flooding in the Catskill Mountain region. The synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns influencing the study area were characterized by a principal component analysis and k-means clustering of NCEP/NCAR 500 mb geopotential height reanalysis data. This procedure was executed in Spatial Synoptic Typer Tools 4.0. While 17 unique synoptic patterns were identified, only 3 types were strongly associated with flash flooding events. A strong southwesterly flow suggesting advection of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico is shown in composites of these 3 types. This multiscalar study thereby links flash flooding in the NYCWSS with synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation.Understanding flash flooding is important in unfiltered watersheds, such as portions of the New York City water supply system (NYCWSS), as water quality is degraded by turbidity associated with flooding. To further understand flash flooding in watersheds of the NYCWSS, synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions most frequently associated with

Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

KAUST Repository

Srinivas, C. V.

2015-09-11

This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. V. Srinivas

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative and above-normal onset (June positive phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over

A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

2006-01-01

This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

The Next Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar: NCAR/EOL Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR) Development

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, James; Lee, Wen-Chau; Loew, Eric; Vivekanandan, Jothiram; Grubišić, Vanda; Tsai, Peisang; Dixon, Mike; Emmett, Jonathan; Lord, Mark; Lussier, Louis; Hwang, Kyuil; Ranson, James

2017-04-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth observing Laboratory (EOL) is entering the third year of preliminary system design studies, engineering prototype testing and project management plan preparation for the development of a novel Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR). This system being designed by NCAR/EOL will be installed and operated on the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft. The APAR system will consist of four removable C-band Active Electronically Scanned Arrays (AESA) strategically placed on the fuselage of the aircraft. Each AESA measures approximately 1.5 x 1.9 m and is composed of 3000 active radiating elements arranged in an array of line replaceable units (LRU) to simplify maintenance. APAR will provide unprecedented observations, and in conjunction with the advanced radar data assimilation schema, will be able to address the key science questions to improve understanding and predictability of significant and high-impact weather APAR, operating at C-band, allows the measurement of 3-D kinematics of the more intense portions of storms (e.g. thunderstorm dynamics and tornadic development, tropical cyclone rainband structure and evolution) with less attenuation compared with current airborne Doppler radar systems. Polarimetric measurements are not available from current airborne tail Doppler radars. However, APAR, with dual-Doppler and dual polarization diversity at a lesser attenuating C-band wavelength, will further advance the understanding of the microphysical processes within a variety of precipitation systems. The radar is sensitive enough to provide high resolution measurements of winter storm dynamics and microphysics. The planned APAR development that would bring the system to operational readiness for research community use aboard the C-130 is expected to take 8 years once major funding support is realized. The authors will review the overall APAR design and provide new details of the system based on our Technical Requirements Document

ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the...

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX region

Science.gov (United States)

Bollmeyer, Christoph; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Wahl, Sabrina

2015-04-01

Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Weather Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations, renewable energy applications). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on two regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany. The European reanalysis COSMO-REA6 matches the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). Nested into COSMO-REA6 is COSMO-REA2, a convective-scale reanalysis with 2km resolution for Germany. COSMO-REA6 comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-Interim data. COSMO-REA2 also uses the nudging scheme complemented by a latent heat nudging of radar information. The reanalysis data set currently covers 17 years (1997-2013) for COSMO-REA6 and 4 years (2010-2013) for COSMO-REA2 with a very large set of output variables and a high temporal output step of hourly 3D-fields and quarter-hourly 2D-fields. The evaluation

Evaluation of ERA-Interim precipitation data in complex terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lu; Bernhardt, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

2013-04-01

Precipitation controls a large variety of environmental processes, which is an essential input parameter for land surface models e.g. in hydrology, ecology and climatology. However, rain gauge networks provides the necessary information, are commonly sparse in complex terrains, especially in high mountainous regions. Reanalysis products (e.g. ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR) as surrogate data are increasing applied in the past years. Although they are improving forward, previous studies showed that these products should be objectively evaluated due to their various uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the precipitation data from ERA-Interim, which is a latest reanalysis product developed by ECMWF. ERA-Interim daily total precipitation are compared with high resolution gridded observation dataset (E-OBS) at 0.25°×0.25° grids for the period 1979-2010 over central Alps (45.5-48°N, 6.25-11.5°E). Wet or dry day is defined using different threshold values (0.5mm, 1mm, 5mm, 10mm and 20mm). The correspondence ratio (CR) is applied for frequency comparison, which is the ratio of days when precipitation occurs in both ERA-Interim and E-OBS dataset. The result shows that ERA-Interim captures precipitation occurrence very well with a range of CR from 0.80 to 0.97 for 0.5mm to 20mm thresholds. However, the bias of intensity increases with rising thresholds. Mean absolute error (MAE) varies between 4.5 mm day-1 and 9.5 mm day-1 in wet days for whole area. In term of mean annual cycle, ERA-Interim almost has the same standard deviation of the interannual variability of daily precipitation with E-OBS, 1.0 mm day-1. Significant wet biases happened in ERA-Interim throughout warm season (May to August) and dry biases in cold season (November to February). The spatial distribution of mean annual daily precipitation shows that ERA-Interim significant underestimates precipitation intensity in high mountains and northern flank of Alpine chain from November to March while pronounced

Contenido

OpenAIRE

Avances Recursos Hidráulicos, Revista

2010-01-01

ARTICULOS DE INVESTIGACION Variabilidad estacional e interanual del viento en los datos del reanálisis NCEP/NCAR en la cuenca Colombia, mar Caribe Mauricio A. Ruiz-Ochoa & Gladys Bernal Franco.........................................................................7 Patrón de circulación en bahía Barbacoas y su influencia sobre el transporte de sedimentos hacía las islas del Rosario Andrés Gómez-Giraldo, Andrés F Osorio, Francisco M. Toro, Juan D. Osorio, Oscar A. Álva...

Hurricane Data Analysis Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Gregory

2011-01-01

In order to facilitate Earth science data access, the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC) has developed a web prototype, the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT; URL: http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/HDAT), to allow users to conduct online visualization and analysis of several remote sensing and model datasets for educational activities and studies of tropical cyclones and other weather phenomena. With a web browser and few mouse clicks, users can have a full access to terabytes of data and generate 2-D or time-series plots and animation without downloading any software and data. HDAT includes data from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) and NECP Reanalysis, and the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N - 60 S) IR Dataset. The GES DISC archives TRMM data. The daily global rainfall product derived from the 3-hourly multi-satellite precipitation product (3B42 V6) is available in HDAT. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature from the Remote Sensing Systems is in HDAT as well. The NASA QuikSCAT ocean surface wind and the NCEP Reanalysis provide ocean surface and atmospheric conditions, respectively. The global merged IR product, also known as, the NCEP/CPC half-hourly, 4-km Global (60 N -60 S) IR Dataset, is one of TRMM ancillary datasets. They are globally-merged pixel-resolution IR brightness temperature data (equivalent blackbody temperatures), merged from all available geostationary satellites (GOES-8/10, METEOSAT-7/5 & GMS). The GES DISC has collected over 10 years of the data beginning from February of 2000. This high temporal resolution (every 30 minutes) dataset not only provides additional background information to TRMM and other satellite missions, but also allows observing a wide range of meteorological phenomena from space, such as, hurricanes, typhoons, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convection system, etc. Basic functions include selection of area of

¿Son aplicables las funciones SCORE y NCEP para el cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular en prevención primaria en la población argentina?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia F. Benozzi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available RESUMENIntroducciónLa estimación del riesgo cardiovascular en prevención primaria mediante ecuaciones elaboradaspara tal fin permite optimizar la utilización de recursos disponibles en salud pública.ObjetivosEvaluar el riesgo cardiovascular mediante la aplicación de las funciones SCORE y NCEP yanalizar la concordancia entre ambas tablas en una población argentina.Material y métodosSe obtuvieron datos clínicos y bioquímicos de 234 personas adultas, de ambos sexos, queconcurrieron al Servicio de Medicina Preventiva del Hospital Municipal de Bahía Blanca. Sedefinió el síndrome metabólico según criterios de la AHA y se determinó riesgo cardiovascularbajo según NCEP III < 20% y según SCORE < 5%.ResultadosLas funciones SCORE y NCEP clasificaron con una precisión del 93,16% a los individuoscon riesgo cardiovascular bajo y la concordancia fue moderada (kappa: 0,452.ConclusiónLa aplicación de las tablas SCORE y NCEP en prevención primaria puede ser una herramientaútil y costo-eficiente en la práctica clínica diaria.REV ARGENT CARDIOL 2010;78:346-349.

Equatorial modes observed in atmospheric variables

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Weather Forecasting) ERA-40 reanalysis (Uppala et al 2005). NCEP does not give divergence as a product (it can be computed), whereas diver- gence is one of .... study is robust and gives results consistent with those based on FFT. This has provided the confi- dence that the FFT-wavelet method can be used to study the ...

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

2014-01-01

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

Temporal and spatial variations of oceanic pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux in th Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro; Aoki, Shuji; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Yoshikawa-Inoue, Hisayuki

2006-01-01

In order to elucidate the seasonal and inter annual variations of oceanic CO 2 uptake in the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea, the partial pressure of CO 2 in the surface ocean (pCO 2 sea ) was measured in all seasons between 1992 and 2001. We derived monthly varying relationships between pCO 2 sea and sea surface temperature (SST) and combined them with the SST data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to determine pCO 2 sea and air-sea CO 2 flux in these seas. The pCO 2 sea values were normalized to the year 1995 by assuming that pCO 2 sea increased at the same growth rate (1.5 μatm/yr) of the pCO 2 in the air (pCO 2 air ) between 1992 and 2001. In 1995, the annual net air-sea CO 2 fluxes were evaluated to be 52 ± 20 gC/m 2 /yr in the Greenland Sea and 46 ± 18 gC/m 2 /yr in the Barents Sea. The CO 2 flux into the ocean reached its maximum in winter and minimum in summer. The wind speed and (delta)pCO 2 (=pCO 2 air -pCO 2 sea ) exerted a greater influence on the seasonal variation than the sea ice coverage. The annual CO 2 uptake examined in this study (70-80 deg N, 20 deg W-40 deg E) was estimated to be 0.050 ± 0.020 GtC/yr in 1995. The inter annual variation in the annual CO 2 uptake was found to be positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) via wind strength but negatively correlated with (delta)pCO 2 and the sea ice coverage. The present results indicate that the variability in wind speed and sea ice coverage play a major role, while that in (delta)pCO 2 plays a minor role, in determining the interannual variation of CO 2 uptake in this area

Estimation of Volume and Freshwater Flux from the Arctic Ocean using SMAP and NCEP CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Bulusu, S.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal monitoring of sea surface salinity (SSS) plays an important role globally and especially over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic ice melt has led to an influx of freshwater into the Arctic environment, a process that can be observed in SSS. The recently launched NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is primarily designed for the global monitoring of soil moisture using L- band (1.4GHz) frequency. SMAP also has the capability of measuring SSS and can thus extend the NASA's Aquarius salinity mission (ended June 7, 2015), salinity data record with improved temporal/spatial sampling. In this research an attempt is made to investigate the retrievability of SSS over the Arctic from SMAP satellite. The objectives of this study are to verify the use of SMAP sea surface salinity (and freshwater) variability in the Arctic Ocean and the extent to estimate freshwater, salt and volume flux from the Arctic Ocean. Along with SMAP data we will use NASA's Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellites (ICESat and ICESat-2), and ESA's CryoSat-2, and NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites data to estimate ice melt in the Arctic. The preliminary results from SMAP compared well with the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) salinity data in this region capturing patterns fairly well over the Arctic.

Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to

Sensitivity test of parameterizations of subgrid-scale orographic form drag in the NCAR CESM1

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yishuang; Wang, Lanning; Zhang, Guang Jun; Wu, Qizhong

2017-05-01

Turbulent drag caused by subgrid orographic form drag has significant effects on the atmosphere. It is represented through parameterization in large-scale numerical prediction models. An indirect parameterization scheme, the Turbulent Mountain Stress scheme (TMS), is currently used in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model v1.0.4. In this study we test a direct scheme referred to as BBW04 (Beljaars et al. in Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1327-1347, 10.1256/qj.03.73), which has been used in several short-term weather forecast models and earth system models. Results indicate that both the indirect and direct schemes increase surface wind stress and improve the model's performance in simulating low-level wind speed over complex orography compared to the simulation without subgrid orographic effect. It is shown that the TMS scheme produces a more intense wind speed adjustment, leading to lower wind speed near the surface. The low-level wind speed by the BBW04 scheme agrees better with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and is more sensitive to complex orography as a direct method. Further, the TMS scheme increases the 2-m temperature and planetary boundary layer height over large areas of tropical and subtropical Northern Hemisphere land.

Quantifying How Observations Inform a Numerical Reanalysis of Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, B. S.

2017-11-01

When assimilating observations into a model via state-estimation, it is possible to quantify how each observation changes the modeled estimate of a chosen oceanic metric. Using an existing 2 year reanalysis of Hawaii that includes more than 31 million observations from satellites, ships, SeaGliders, and autonomous floats, I assess which observations most improve the estimates of the transport and eddy kinetic energy. When the SeaGliders were in the water, they comprised less than 2.5% of the data, but accounted for 23% of the transport adjustment. Because the model physics constrains advanced state-estimation, the prescribed covariances are propagated in time to identify observation-model covariance. I find that observations that constrain the isopycnal tilt across the transport section provide the greatest impact in the analysis. In the case of eddy kinetic energy, observations that constrain the surface-driven upper ocean have more impact. This information can help to identify optimal sampling strategies to improve both state-estimates and forecasts.

An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

2017-12-07

The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

2017-09-01

The representation of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution - for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and

The climatology of planetary boundary layer height in China derived from radiosonde and reanalysis data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The important roles of the planetary boundary layer (PBL in climate, weather and air quality have long been recognized, but little is known about the PBL climatology in China. Using the fine-resolution sounding observations made across China and reanalysis data, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of the PBL in China from January 2011 to July 2015. The boundary layer height (BLH is found to be generally higher in spring and summer than that in fall and winter. The comparison of seasonally averaged BLHs derived from observations and reanalysis, on average, shows good agreement, despite the pronounced inconsistence in some regions. The BLH, derived from soundings conducted three or four times daily in summer, tends to peak in the early afternoon, and the diurnal amplitude of BLH is higher in the northern and western subregions of China than other subregions. The meteorological influence on the annual cycle of BLH is investigated as well, showing that BLH at most sounding sites is negatively associated with the surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability, but positively associated with the near-surface wind speed and temperature. In addition, cloud tends to suppress the development of PBL, particularly in the early afternoon. This indicates that meteorology plays a significant role in the PBL processes. Overall, the key findings obtained from this study lay a solid foundation for us to gain a deep insight into the fundamentals of PBL in China, which helps to understand the roles that the PBL plays in the air pollution, weather and climate of China.

Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Sudeepkumar, B. L.; Babu, C. A.; Varikoden, Hamza

2018-02-01

The effect of global climate change on Indian summer monsoon has been analysed with special emphasis on active-break cycle. The changes in intensity and duration of active and break monsoon conditions towards the end of the century are studied by using 850 hPa zonal circulations. The analysis is carried out using twenty year climatology of historical period (1986-2005) and future projections (2080-2099) simulated as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Models are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The models that effectively capture the circulation pattern of monsoon (JJAS) are considered for assessing the future climate in RCP 4.5 scenario. They are CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. During the southwest monsoon period, the ensemble mean of models projects a strengthening of the wind speed towards north (north of 15°N) and weakening to the southern region (especially south of 12°N) which facilitates wetting of northern Indian regions and drying of southern peninsular regions. In the case of active-break conditions, the active spells are found to be strengthening over northern India and weakening over the peninsular India, the break spells intensify over southern tip of peninsular India indicating intense breaks. Increased propensity of short intense active days and decreased propensity of long active days are also projected by the models. The number of break spells does not show any significant changes.

Assessing Intraseasonal Variability Produced by Several Deep Convection Schemes in the NCAR CCM3.6

Science.gov (United States)

Maloney, E. D.

2001-05-01

The Hack, Zhang/McFarlane, and McRAS convection schemes produce very different simulations of intraseasonal variability in the NCAR CCM3.6. A robust analysis of simulation performance requires an expanded set of diagnostics. The use of only one criterion to analyze model Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) variability, such as equatorial zonal wind variability, may give a misleading impression of model performance. Schemes that produce strong variability in zonal winds may sometimes lack a corresponding coherent signal in precipitation, suggesting that model convection and the large-scale circulation are not as strongly coupled as observed. The McRAS scheme, which includes a parametrization of unsaturated convective downdrafts, produces the best simulation of intraseasonal variability of the three schemes used. Downdrafts in McRAS create a moister equatorial troposphere, which increases equatorial convection. Composite analysis indicates a strong dependence of model intraseasonal variability on the frictional convergence mechanism, which may also be important in nature. The McRAS simulation has limitations, however. Indian Ocean variability is weak, and anomalous convection extends too far east across the Pacific. The dependence of convection on surface friction is too strong, and causes enhanced MJO convection to be associated with low-level easterly wind perturbations, unlike observed MJO convection. Anomalous vertical advection associated with surface convergence influences model convection by moistening the lower troposphere. Based on the work of Hendon (2000), coupling to an interactive ocean is unlikely to change the performance of the CCM3 with McRAS, due to the phase relationship between anomalous convection and zonal winds. Use of the analysis tools presented here indicates areas for improvement in the parametrization of deep convection by atmospheric GCMs.

Regional Spectral Model simulations of the summertime regional climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas

Science.gov (United States)

Ching-Teng Lee; Ming-Chin Wu; Shyh-Chin Chen

2005-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) version 97 was used to investigate the regional summertime climate over Taiwan and adjacent areas for June-July-August of 1990 through 2000. The simulated sea-level-pressure and wind fields of RSM1 with 50-km grid space are similar to the reanalysis, but the strength of the...

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2015-04-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the last century built on the NOAA 20th century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at delivering appropriate meteorological forcings for continuous distributed hydrological modelling over the last 140 years. The longer term objective is to improve our knowledge of major historical hydrometeorological events having occurred outside of the last 50-year period, over which comprehensive reconstructions and observations are available. It would constitute a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies. The Sandhy (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for Hydrology) statistical downscaling method (Radanovics et al., 2013), initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between 20CR predictors - temperature, geopotential shape, vertical velocity and relative humidity - and local predictands - precipitation and temperature - relevant for catchment-scale hydrology. Multiple predictor domains for geopotential shape are retained from a local optimisation over France using the Safran near-surface reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). Sandhy gives an ensemble of 125 equally plausible gridded precipitation and temperature time series over the whole 1871-2012 period. Previous studies showed that Sandhy precipitation outputs are very slightly biased at the annual time scale. Nevertheless, the seasonal precipitation signal for areas with a high interannual variability is not well simulated. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and underestimated. Reliable seasonal precipitation and temperature signals are however necessary for hydrological modelling, especially for evapotranspiration and snow accumulation/snowmelt processes. Two different post-processing methods are

The Use of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

1999-01-01

An important component of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind resource assessment methodology is the use of available upper-air data to construct detailed vertical profiles for a study region. Currently, the most useful upper-air data for this type of analysis are archived observations from approximately 1800 rawinsonde and pilot balloon stations worldwide. However, significant uncertainty exists in the accuracy of the constructed profiles for many regions. The United States Reanalysis Data Set, recently created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, has the potential to improve the quality of the vertical profiles. The initial evaluation of the usefulness of the Reanalysis data for wind resource assessment consisted of contrasting reanalysis-derived vertical profiles of the wind characteristics to those generated from upper-air observations for comparable locations. The results indicate that, while reanalysis data can be substituted for upper-air observation data in the assessment methodology for areas of the world where observation data are limited, enough discrepancies with observation data have been noticed to warrant further studies

Connecting Observations and Reanalysis of the MJO with Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, S. W.

2017-12-01

Over the past few years, refined theories have been advanced the explain the onset and/or propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the tropical warm pool. For example, Adames and Kim (2016) built on Sobel and Maloney (2012, 2013) to describe the MJO as a dispersive moisture wave whose instability mechanism is a radiative-convective instability supported by anvils of large mesoscale systems. Wang and Chen (2016) describe a similar frictionally coupled moisture mode that captures many basic features of the canonically observed MJO. Arnold and Randall (2015) hypothesize that the MJO might be described as self-aggregation of convection over the Indian Ocean. Fuchs and Raymond (2017) describe the MJO as a first baroclinic dispersive mode in a simplified model with a linear WISHE instability that shows decreased propagation speeds for lower wavelengths. Not all of these theories can be correct, and quite possibly none of them are fully. Intelligent use of observations and reanalysis of past MJO events can help guide development of MJO theory. For example, Powell (2017) shows that in MERRA-2 reanalysis, the MJO propagates as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave over the Western Hemisphere then transitions abruptly into a slower moving mode over the Indian Ocean. A complete MJO theory must account for both forms as, and when, the MJO circumnavigates. Observations (like TRMM and GPM data) and reanalysis can reveal the relative roles of cloud-scale processes and large-scale free tropospheric horizontal advection in "pre-moistening" the troposphere in the location of MJO initiation where subsequent propagation of an existing MJO occurs. This can, for example, help validate or refute aspects of moisture mode theory that require large-scale dynamics to moisten an area ahead of an active envelope of MJO-related convection before the MJO can propagate eastward. Radar and satellite observations might yield some insight into whether convective self-aggregation is a real

El príncep, Niccolò Machiavelli: elogi del passat, crítica del present, projecte del futur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Àngels B. Miró

2002-04-01

Full Text Available El príncep és una obra fonamental dins la història de la filosofia política. Però no podem entendre l'obra cabdal de Maquiavel sense detenir-nos en la trajectòria personal i literària de l'autor i en l'entorn en què va viure.

Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

Science.gov (United States)

Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

2016-12-01

We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

Dynamical Downscaling of Typhoon Vera (1959) and related Storm Surge based on JRA-55 Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ninomiya, J.; Takemi, T.; Mori, N.; Shibutani, Y.; Kim, S.

2015-12-01

Typhoon Vera in 1959 is historical extreme typhoon that caused severest typhoon damage mainly due to the storm surge up to 389 cm in Japan. Vera developed 895 hPa on offshore and landed with 929.2 hPa. There are many studies of the dynamical downscaling of Vera but it is difficult to simulate accurately because of the lack of the accuracy of global reanalysis data. This study carried out dynamical downscaling experiment of Vera using WRF downscaling forced by JRA-55 that are latest atmospheric model and reanalysis data. In this study, the reproducibility of five global reanalysis data for Typhoon Vera were compered. Comparison shows that reanalysis data doesn't have strong typhoon information except for JRA-55, so that downscaling with conventional reanalysis data goes wrong. The dynamical downscaling method for storm surge is studied very much (e.g. choice of physical model, nudging, 4D-VAR, bogus and so on). In this study, domain size and resolution of the coarse domain were considered. The coarse domain size influences the typhoon route and central pressure, and larger domain restrains the typhoon strength. The results of simulations with different domain size show that the threshold of developing restrain is whether the coarse domain fully includes the area of wind speed more than 15 m/s around the typhoon. The results of simulations with different resolution show that the resolution doesn't affect the typhoon route, and higher resolution gives stronger typhoon simulation.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

Role of low level flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Swapna, P.; RameshKumar, M.R.

northern summer, Quad. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 95, 362-380. Findlater, J., 1971. Mean monthly airflow at low levels over the western Indian Ocean, Geophysical memories, No. l15, HMSO, London 53pp. Ghosh, S.K., Pant, M.C. & Dewan, B.N., 1978. Influence...., Kisder, R., Collins, W, Deaven, D, Gandin, m., Saha, S., White, G, Woollen, J, Zhu, Y, Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W, Higgins, W, Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C.,Ropelewski,C.,Wang,J.,Leetma, A., Reynolds, R., Roy Jenne & Dennis Joseph, 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40...

Air-sea heat fluxes associated to mesoscale eddies in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean and their dependence on different regional conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Leyba, Inés M.; Saraceno, Martín; Solman, Silvina A.

2017-10-01

Heat fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere largely represent the link between the two media. A possible mechanism of interaction is generated by mesoscale ocean eddies. In this work we evaluate if eddies in Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) Ocean may significantly affect flows between the ocean and the atmosphere. Atmospherics conditions associated with eddies were examined using data of sea surface temperature (SST), sensible (SHF) and latent heat flux (LHF) from NCEP-CFSR reanalysis. On average, we found that NCEP-CFSR reanalysis adequately reflects the variability expected from eddies in the SWA, considering the classical eddy-pumping theory: anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies cause maximum positive (negative) anomalies with maximum mean anomalies of 0.5 °C (-0.5 °C) in SST, 6 W/m2 (-4 W/m2) in SHF and 12 W/m2 (-9 W/m2) in LHF. However, a regional dependence of heat fluxes associated to mesoscale cyclonic eddies was found: in the turbulent Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region they are related with positive heat flux anomaly (ocean heat loss), while in the rest of the SWA they behave as expected (ocean heat gain). We argue that eddy-pumping do not cool enough the center of the cyclonic eddies in the BMC region simply because most of them trapped very warm waters when they originate in the subtropics. The article therefore concludes that in the SWA: (1) a robust link exists between the SST anomalies generated by eddies and the local anomalous heat flow between the ocean and the atmosphere; (2) in the BMC region cyclonic eddies are related with positive heat anomalies, contrary to what is expected.

High Resolution Simulations of Future Climate in West Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

Science.gov (United States)

Adegoke, J. O.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2013-12-01

In previous work demonstrated the application of a var¬iable-resolution global atmospheric model, the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), across a wide range of spatial and time scales to investigate the ability of the model to provide realistic simulations of present-day climate and plausible projections of future climate change over sub-Saharan Africa. By applying the model in stretched-grid mode the versatility of the model dynamics, numerical formulation and physical parameterizations to function across a range of length scales over the region of interest, was also explored. We primarily used CCAM to illustrate the capability of the model to function as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. Here we report on additional long term climate projection studies performed by downscaling at much higher resolutions (8 Km) over an area that stretches from just south of Sahara desert to the southern coast of the Niger Delta and into the Gulf of Guinea. To perform these simulations, CCAM was provided with synoptic-scale forcing of atmospheric circulation from 2.5 deg resolution NCEP reanalysis at 6-hourly interval and SSTs from NCEP reanalysis data uses as lower boundary forcing. CCAM 60 Km resolution downscaled to 8 Km (Schmidt factor 24.75) then 8 Km resolution simulation downscaled to 1 Km (Schmidt factor 200) over an area approximately 50 Km x 50 Km in the southern Lake Chad Basin (LCB). Our intent in conducting these high resolution model runs was to obtain a deeper understanding of linkages between the projected future climate and the hydrological processes that control the surface water regime in this part of sub-Saharan Africa.

Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Naha

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006. Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU, rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated

Improving the Amazonian Hydrologic Cycle in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere, Single Column Model

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, A. B.; Denning, S.; Baker, I.; Prihodko, L.; Branson, M.

2006-12-01

We have coupled a land-surface model, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3), to a single column of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU-GCM) in the Amazon River Basin. This is a preliminary step in the broader goal of improved simulation of Basin-wide hydrology. A previous version of the coupled model (SiB2) showed drought and catastrophic dieback of the Amazon rain forest. SiB3 includes updated soil hydrology and root physiology. Our test area for the coupled single column model is near Santarem, Brazil, where measurements from the km 83 flux tower in the Tapajos National Forest can be used to evaluate model output. The model was run for 2001 using NCEP2 Reanalysis as driver data. Preliminary results show that the updated biosphere model coupled to the GCM produces improved simulations of the seasonal cycle of surface water balance and precipitation. Comparisons of the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface fluxes are also being made.

AVHRR GAC SST Reanalysis Version 1 (RAN1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Ignatov

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In response to its users’ needs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA initiated reanalysis (RAN of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC; 4 km sea surface temperature (SST data employing its Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO retrieval system. Initially, AVHRR/3 data from five NOAA and two Metop satellites from 2002 to 2015 have been reprocessed. The derived SSTs have been matched up with two reference SSTs—the quality controlled in situ SSTs from the NOAA in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC L4 SST analysis—and analyzed in the NOAA SST Quality Monitor (SQUAM online system. The corresponding clear-sky ocean brightness temperatures (BT in AVHRR bands 3b, 4 and 5 (centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 µm, respectively have been compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model simulations in another NOAA online system, Monitoring of Infrared Clear-sky Radiances over Ocean for SST (MICROS. For some AVHRRs, the time series of “AVHRR minus reference” SSTs and “observed minus model” BTs are unstable and inconsistent, with artifacts in the SSTs and BTs strongly correlated. In the official “Reanalysis version 1” (RAN1, data from only five platforms—two midmorning (NOAA-17 and Metop-A and three afternoon (NOAA-16, -18 and -19—were included during the most stable periods of their operations. The stability of the SST time series was further improved using variable regression SST coefficients, similarly to how it was done in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder version 5.2 (PFV5.2 dataset. For data assimilation applications, especially those blending satellite and in situ SSTs, we recommend bias-correcting the RAN1 SSTs using the newly developed sensor-specific error statistics (SSES, which are reported in the product files. Relative performance of RAN1 and PFV5.2 SSTs is discussed. Work is underway to improve the calibration of AVHRR/3s and

Runoff simulation using the North American regional reanalysis data set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, P.; Kim, S.J.; Moore, A.; Choi, W.

2008-01-01

In part due to concerns about the impact of climate change, there has been an increased interest in hydrological modelling of watersheds in Canada. Most of Canada is sparsely populated and a recurrent problem is the lack of quality weather data that are often not available at the sites of interest. Continuous hydrologic models require input of temperature and precipitation as a minimum, and often additional information such as solar radiation and humidity. It is not uncommon that such information must be obtained by interpolating information from weather stations located far outside the watershed. The difficulty in obtaining good calibration results is obvious in such cases. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set has been found to be in reasonable agreement with surface observations. NARR surface data, including those commonly required in hydrologic models, are available on a 32 km by 32 km grid which is appropriate for hydrologic modelling. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether hydrologic models for selected watersheds in Central Canada can be adequately calibrated using NARR data rather than conventional station information. For the specific case studies considered here, it is found that calibration with NARR weather information is quite acceptable and similar to what can be obtained using interpolated weather station data. (author)

On the impact of using downscaled reanalysis data instead of direct measurements for modeling the mass balance of a tropical glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Galos, Stephan; Hofer, Marlis; Marzeion, Ben; Mölg, Thomas; Großhauser, Martin

2013-04-01

Due to their setting, tropical glaciers are sensitive indicators of mid-tropospheric meteorological variability and climate change. Furthermore these glaciers are of particular interest because they respond faster to climatic changes than glaciers located in mid- or high-latitudes. As long-term direct meteorological measurements in such remote environments are scarce, reanalysis data (e.g. ERA-Interim) provide a highly valuable source of information. Reanalysis datasets (i) enable a temporal extension of data records gained by direct measurements and (ii) provide information from regions where direct measurements are not available. In order to properly derive the physical exchange processes between glaciers and atmosphere from reanalysis data, downscaling procedures are required. In the present study we investigate if downscaled atmospheric variables (air temperature and relative humidity) from a reanalysis dataset can be used as input for a physically based, high resolution energy and mass balance model. We apply a well validated empirical-statistical downscaling model, fed with ERA-Interim data, to an automated weather station (AWS) on the surface of Glaciar Artesonraju (8.96° S | 77.63° W). The downscaled data is then used to replace measured air temperature and relative humidity in the input for the energy and mass balance model, which was calibrated using ablation data from stakes and a sonic ranger. In order to test the sensitivity of the modeled mass balance to the downscaled data, the results are compared to a reference model run driven solely with AWS data as model input. We finally discuss the results and present future perspectives for further developing this method.

Development of web-GIS system for analysis of georeferenced geophysical data

Science.gov (United States)

Okladnikov, I.; Gordov, E. P.; Titov, A. G.; Bogomolov, V. Y.; Genina, E.; Martynova, Y.; Shulgina, T. M.

2012-12-01

Georeferenced datasets (meteorological databases, modeling and reanalysis results, remote sensing products, etc.) are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. The information-computational system consists of 4 basic parts: computational kernel developed using GNU Data Language (GDL), a set of PHP-controllers run within specialized web-portal, JavaScript class libraries for development of typical components of web mapping application graphical user interface (GUI) based on AJAX technology, and an archive of geophysical datasets. Computational kernel comprises of a number of dedicated modules for querying and extraction of data, mathematical and statistical data analysis, visualization, and preparing output files in geoTIFF and netCDF format containing processing results. Specialized web-portal consists of a web-server Apache, complying OGC standards Geoserver software which is used as a base for presenting cartographical information over the Web, and a set of PHP-controllers implementing web-mapping application logic and governing computational kernel. JavaScript libraries aiming at graphical user interface development are based on GeoExt library combining ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The archive of geophysical data consists of a number of structured environmental datasets represented by data files in netCDF, HDF, GRIB, ESRI Shapefile formats. For processing by the system are available: two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25

PLC based control system and maintenance activities at NCAR, Bilaspur

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dewangan, Jaidev; Trivedi, T.; Patel, Shiv P.; Malik, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Gupta, Santosh Kumar; Bajpai, P.K.

2015-01-01

A 3.0 MV high current low energy Pelletron Accelerator facility (Model 9SDH-4, NEC, USA) with TORUIS (ion source for H + and He 2+ beam current H + ion ∼ 50μA @ 6 MeV, He 2+ at ∼ 10μA) and SNICS-II ion source for heavy ions has been commissioned as 'National Centre for Accelerator Based Research' in the Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya. In this paper, we detail out the control system developed and implemented at NCAR. The basic idea of controlling the machine is by providing the output signal through PLC to ACPC of accelerator using user interface points provided by the manufacturer. The PLC based system generates output signal once it receives the feedback signals from search and secure switches, door lock switches and scram switches interlocked with PLC. The output is controlled by ladder logic and is activated only when all the radiation monitors are in healthy state and outside radiations monitor having low radiation level. The details of control system and maintenance activities will be discussed in the paper

Re-Analysis of Metagenomic Sequences from Acute Flaccidmyelitis Patients Reveals Alternatives to Enterovirus D68 Infection

Science.gov (United States)

2015-07-13

caused in some cases by infection with enterovirus D68. We found that among the patients whose symptoms were previously attributed to enterovirus D68...distribution is unlimited. Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus D68...Street Baltimore, MD 21218 -2685 ABSTRACT Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus

Anomalous Heat Budgets in the Interior Pacific Ocean on Seasonal- to -Timescales and Gyre Spacescales

Science.gov (United States)

White, Warren; Cayan, Daniel R.; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage over the Pacific Ocean from 20 degrees S to 60 degrees N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) products over 7 years from 1993-1999. We utilize WOCE reanalysis products from the following sources: diabatic heat storage (DHS) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from the Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We interpolate these products onto a common grid, allowing the seasonal cycle of DHS to be modeled for comparison with that observed. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals and shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, both comparable in magnitude to the residual horizontal heat advection. We find the root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies to be less than 15 W per square meters everywhere except in the Kuroshio extension. Comparable COADS and NCEP products perform better than ECMWF products in the extra-tropics, while the NCEP product performs best in the tropics. Radiative and turbulent air-sea heat flux residuals computed from ship-born measurements perform better than those computed from satellite cloud and wind measurements. Since the RMS differences derive largely from biases in measured wind speed and cloud fraction, least-squares minimization is used to correct the residual Ekman heat advection and air-sea heat flux. Minimization reduces RMS differences less than 5 W per square meters except in the Kuroshio extension, suggesting how winds, clouds, and exchange coefficients in the NCEP, ECMWF, and ESR products can be improved.

Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, P.; Zucker, A.; Careri, F.; Huld, T.; Badger, J.

2017-01-01

Highlights: •Wind speed spatial resolution highly influences calculated wind power peaks and ramps. •Reduction of wind power generation uncertainties using statistical downscaling. •Publicly available dataset of wind power generation hourly time series at NUTS2. -- Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources – and in particular wind power – crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1 × 1 km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25 km to 70 km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured by different wind speeds spatial resolution datasets, the importance of using high resolution data for the conversion into power and the implications in power system analyses. It is proposed a methodology to increase the spatial resolution from a reanalysis. This study presents an open access renewable generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative

Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Klinger, Barry [Gorge Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Xue, Yan [National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

2012-08-15

We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16 Sv (10{sup 6} m{sup 3}/s) near 35 N at 1.2 km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6 Sv near 35 N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45 N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning. (orig.)

Exploiting the atmosphere's memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)

Science.gov (United States)

Del Rio Amador, Lenin; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

. The corresponding space-time model (the ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) is thus only multifractal in space where the spatial intermittency is associated with different climate zones. SLIMM exploits the power law (scaling) behavior in time of the temperature field and uses the long historical memory of the temperature series to improve the skill. The only model parameter is the fluctuation scaling exponent, H (usually in the range -0.5 - 0), which is directly related to the skill and can be obtained from the data. The results predicted analytically by the model have been tested by performing actual hindcasts in different 5° x 5° regions covering the planet using ERA-Interim, 20CRv2 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as reference datasets. We report maps of theoretical skill predicted by the model and we compare it with actual skill based on hindcasts for monthly, seasonal and annual resolutions. We also present maps of calibrated probability hindcasts with their respective validations. Comparisons between our results using SLIMM, some other stochastic autoregressive model, and hindcasts from the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s model CFSv2, are also shown. For seasonal temperature forecasts, SLIMM outperforms the GCM based forecasts in over 90% of the earth's surface. SLIMM forecasts can be accessed online through the site: http://www.to_be_announced.mcgill.ca.

A System of Oceanic Reanalysis (SOR) fot the Nordic Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Pnyushkov, A.

2009-04-01

A system of oceanic reanalysis of the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Barents seas) directed to the investigations of long period changes in the oceanic climate of the Arctic sub-polar seas was developed. The system of oceanic reanalysys (SOR) includes hybrid coordinate 22-th level ocean model HYCOM [Bleck,2002] and modern oceanographic data assimilation technique based on spectral nudging method. A series of test experiments was carried out and optimal parameters for assimilation routine were choused. These parameters take into account the accuracy of spatial restoring by means objective analysis procedure and phase distortion in modeling fields during monotonous assimilation of monthly distributions. On the basis of modeling results a set of monthly mean hydrological distributions of thermohaline parameters was created for the Nordic seas that was used for climatic field compilations on the standard levels for period 1957-1990. The data of reanalysis system projections allow us to restore the information about structure and dynamic of oceanographic fields for the periods and areas with a small number of direct measurements, for example East-Greenland currents area, north and north-east parts of the Barents sea. A series of additional experiments with SOR were performed directed to the simple assimilation of sea ice concentration data. A significant improvement of the system of objectively analyzed field preparation was done during 2008 including additional validation procedure of gridded arrays with using the direct data of oceanographic stations. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 07-05-00393).

Efficient Reanalysis Procedures in Structural Topology Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded

This thesis examines efficient solution procedures for the structural analysis problem within topology optimization. The research is motivated by the observation that when the nested approach to structural optimization is applied, most of the computational effort is invested in repeated solutions...... on approximate reanalysis. For cases where memory limitations require the utilization of iterative equation solvers, we suggest efficient procedures based on alternative termination criteria for such solvers. These approaches are tested on two- and three-dimensional topology optimization problems including...

The Value of Reanalysis: TV Viewing and Attention Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, E. Michael; Watkins, Stephanie

2010-01-01

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 1,159), this study reexamines the link between maternal reports of television viewing at ages 1 and 3 and attention problems at age 7. This work represents a reanalysis and extension of recent research suggesting young children's television viewing causes subsequent attention problems.…

Comparison of mesoscale model and tower measurements of surface fluxes during Winter Icing and Storms Program/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement 91

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oncley, S.P.; Dudhia, J.

1994-01-01

This study is an evaluation of the ability of the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (MM4) to determine surface fluxes to see if measured fluxes should be assimilated into model runs. Fluxes were compared from a high-resolution (5 km grid spacing) MM4 run during one day of the Winter Icing and Storms Programs/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (WISP/ARM) experiment (over NE Colorado in winter 1991) with direct flux measurements made from a tower over a representative site by a three-dimensional sonic anemometer and fast response temperature and humidity sensors. This tower was part of the NCAR Atmosphere-Surface Turbulent Exchange Research (ASTER) facility. Also, mean values were compared to check whether any differences were due to the model parameterization or model variables

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

2013-01-01

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatia...

Interoperable Access to NCAR Research Data Archive Collections

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, D.; Ji, Z.; Worley, S. J.; Manross, K.

2014-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA) provides free access to 600+ observational and gridded dataset collections. The RDA is designed to support atmospheric and related sciences research, updated frequently where datasets have ongoing production, and serves data to 10,000 unique users annually. The traditional data access options include web-based direct archive file downloads, user selected data subsets and format conversions produced by server-side computations, and client and cURL-based APIs for routine scripted data retrieval. To enhance user experience and utility, the RDA now also offers THREDDS Data Server (TDS) access for many highly valued dataset collections. TDS offered datasets are presented as aggregations, enabling users to access an entire dataset collection, that can be comprised of 1000's of files, through a single virtual file. The OPeNDAP protocol, supported by the TDS, allows compatible tools to open and access these virtual files remotely, and make the native data file format transparent to the end user. The combined functionality (TDS/OPeNDAP) gives users the ability to browse, select, visualize, and download data from a complete dataset collection without having to transfer archive files to a local host. This presentation will review the TDS basics and describe the specific TDS implementation on the RDA's diverse archive of GRIB-1, GRIB-2, and gridded NetCDF formatted dataset collections. Potential future TDS implementation on in-situ observational dataset collections will be discussed. Illustrative sample cases will be used to highlight the end users benefits from this interoperable data access to the RDA.

Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

2012-01-15

In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

2012-01-01

In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

Long- Range Forecasting Of The Onset Of Southwest Monsoon Winds And Waves Near The Horn Of Africa

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

conditions is also indicated ( S : strong, M: moderate, W: weak). ..............34 xi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Table of correlation experiments conducted...2nd ed.). Essex, England: Pearson prentice hall, 317 pp. Saha, S ., and Coauthors, 2010: NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) Selected...WAVES NEAR THE HORN OF AFRICA 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR( S ) Gary M. Vines 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive: a Data Education Center

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, G. S.; Schuster, D.

2015-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, is not just another data center or data archive. It is a data education center. We not only serve data, we TEACH data. Weather and climate data is the original "Big Data" dataset and lessons learned while playing with weather data are applicable to a wide range of data investigations. Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. Users can quickly find datasets by name or dataset ID number. They can also perform a faceted search that successively narrows the options by user requirements or simply kick off an indexed search with a few words. Weather data formats can be difficult to read for non-expert users; it's usually packed in binary formats requiring specialized software and parameter names use specialized vocabularies. DSs create detailed information pages for each dataset and maintain lists of helpful software, documentation and links of information around the web. We further grow the level of sophistication of the users with tips, tutorials and data stories on the RDA Blog, http://ncarrda.blogspot.com/. How-to video tutorials are also posted on the NCAR Computational and Information Systems

Summarising climate and air quality (ozone) data on self-organising maps: a Sydney case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Ningbo; Betts, Alan; Riley, Matt

2016-02-01

This paper explores the classification and visualisation utility of the self-organising map (SOM) method in the context of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, using gridded NCEP/NCAR geopotential height reanalysis for east Australia, together with multi-site meteorological and air quality data for Sydney from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage Air Quality Monitoring Network. A twice-daily synoptic classification has been derived for east Australia for the period of 1958-2012. The classification has not only reproduced the typical synoptic patterns previously identified in the literature but also provided an opportunity to visualise the subtle, non-linear change in the eastward-migrating synoptic systems influencing NSW (including Sydney). The summarisation of long-term, multi-site air quality/meteorological data from the Sydney basin on the SOM plane has identified a set of typical air pollution/meteorological spatial patterns in the region. Importantly, the examination of these patterns in relation to synoptic weather types has provided important visual insights into how local and synoptic meteorological conditions interact with each other and affect the variability of air quality in tandem. The study illustrates that while synoptic circulation types are influential, the within-type variability in mesoscale flows plays a critical role in determining local ozone levels in Sydney. These results indicate that the SOM can be a useful tool for assessing the impact of weather and climatic conditions on air quality in the regional airshed. This study further promotes the use of the SOM method in environmental research.

Climatology of the autumn Red Sea trough

Science.gov (United States)

Awad, Adel M.; Mashat, Abdul-Wahab S.

2018-03-01

In this study, the Sudan low and the associated Red Sea trough (RST) are objectively identified using the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset covering the period 1955-2015. The Sudan low was detected in approximately 60.6% of the autumn periods, and approximately 83% of the detected low-pressure systems extended into RSTs, with most generated at night and during cold months. The distribution of the RSTs demonstrated that Sudan, South Sudan and Red Sea are the primary development areas of the RSTs, generating 97% of the RSTs in the study period. In addition, the outermost areas affected by RSTs, which include the southern, central and northern Red Sea areas, received approximately 91% of the RSTs originating from the primary generation areas. The synoptic features indicated that a Sudan low developed into an RST when the Sudan low deepened in the atmosphere, while the low pressures over the southern Arabian Peninsula are shallow and the anticyclonic systems are weakened over the northern Red Sea. Moreover, stabile areas over Africa and Arabian Peninsula form a high stability gradient around the Red Sea and the upper maximum winds weaken. The results of the case studies indicate that RSTs extend northward when the upper cyclonic and anticyclonic systems form a high geopotential gradient over Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the RST is oriented from the west to the east when the Azores high extends eastward and the Siberian high shrinks eastward or shifts northward.

Short-cut transport path for Asian dust directly to the Arctic: a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Zhongwei; Huang, Jianping; Wang, Shanshan; Zhou, Tian; Jin, Hongchun; Hayasaka, Tadahiro

2015-01-01

Asian dust can be transported long distances from the Taklimakan or Gobi desert to North America across the Pacific Ocean, and it has been found to have a significant impact on ecosystems, climate, and human health. Although it is well known that Asian dust is transported all over the globe, there are limited observations reporting Asian dust transported to the Arctic. We report a case study of a large-scale heavy dust storm over East Asia on 19 March 2010, as shown by ground-based and space-borne multi-sensor observations, as well as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and HYSPLIT trajectories. Our analysis suggests that Asian dust aerosols were transported from northwest China to the Arctic within 5 days, crossing eastern China, Japan and Siberia before reaching the Arctic. The results indicate that Asian dust can be transported for long distances along a previously unreported transport path. Evidence from other dust events over the past decade (2001–2010) also supports our results, indicating that dust from 25.2% of Asian dust events has potentially been transported directly to the Arctic. The transport of Asian dust to the Arctic is due to cyclones and the enhanced East Asia Trough (EAT), which are very common synoptic systems over East Asia. This suggests that many other large dust events would have generated long-range transport of dust to the Arctic along this path in the past. Thus, Asian dust potentially affects the Arctic climate and ecosystem, making climate change in the Arctic much more complex to be fully understood. (letter)

East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2016-04-01

The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

Isotopic changes due to convective moistening of the lower troposphere associated with variations in the ENSO and IOD from 2005 to 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeonghoon Lee

2015-04-01

Full Text Available We use the tropospheric emission spectrometer measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour (δD in the lower troposphere to examine how changes in the distribution of convection and precipitation control water vapour amount and its isotope over the Indian Ocean. Measurements of the outgoing longwave radiation and vertical velocity from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and cloud ice water content from the Microwave Limb Sounder show distinct variations in convection due to a phase shift of both El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD. These variations in convection are associated with changes in precipitation and water amount over the Western Indian Ocean (WIO and Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO, depending on the phases of ENSO and/or the IOD. Over the EIO in 2006, induced by the interplay of both positive ENSO and IOD, it is drier and less isotopically depleted due to less frequent and/or weaker deep convective activity and subsequent precipitation compared to 2005. By contrast, over the WIO in 2006, an increase in water vapour and precipitation but little isotopic fractionation in water vapour of clear sky compared to 2005 is likely associated with an increase in both enhanced deep and shallow convection, caused by the positive IOD. Therefore, paleoarchives of water isotopes near Africa will be more difficult to relate to a single process because changes in convective activity result in changes in precipitation but do not have a significant impact on the isotopic composition of the source vapour based on this case analysis.

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

Science.gov (United States)

Faranda, Davide; Messori, Gabriele; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Yiou, Pascal

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect - or are linked to phenomena which affect - human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes - namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948-2013. The results show that (i) despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii) the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii) the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Analysis of the relationship between the monthly temperatures and weather types in Iberian Peninsula

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Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Nicola, Cortesi; José Carlos, González-Hidalgo

2016-04-01

In this study, the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and weather types and the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula is modeled (period 1950-2010). The temperature data used were obtained from a high spatial resolution (10km x 10km) dataset (MOTEDAS dataset, Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). In addition, a dataset of Portuguese temperatures was used (obtained from the Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere). The weather type classification used was the one developed by Jenkinson and Collison, which was adapted for the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The analysis of the behaviour of monthly temperatures based on the weather types was carried out using a stepwise regression procedure of type forward to estimate temperatures in each cell of the considered grid, for each month, and for both maximum and minimum monthly average temperatures. The model selects the weather types that best estimate the temperatures. From the validation model it was obtained the error distribution in the time (months) and space (Iberian Peninsula). The results show that best estimations are obtained for minimum temperatures, during the winter months and in coastal areas. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298

Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

2018-02-01

We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and

Effects of multilayer snow scheme on the simulation of snow: Offline Noah and coupled with NCEP CFSv2

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Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sujith, K.; Pokhrel, Samir; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam

2017-03-01

The Noah version 2.7.1 is a moderately complex land surface model (LSM), with a single layer snowpack, combined with vegetation and underlying soil layer. Many previous studies have pointed out biases in the simulation of snow, which may hinder the skill of a forecasting system coupled with the Noah. In order to improve the simulation of snow by the Noah, a multilayer snow scheme (up to a maximum of six layers) is introduced. As Noah is the land surface component of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the modified Noah is also coupled with the CFSv2. The offline LSM shows large improvements in the simulation of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover area during snow season (October to June). CFSv2 with the modified Noah reveals a dramatic improvements in the simulation of snow depth and 2 m air temperature and moderate improvements in SWE. As suggested in the previous diagnostic and sensitivity study, improvements in the simulation of snow by CFSv2 have lead to the reduction in dry bias over the Indian subcontinent (by a maximum of 2 mm d-1). The multilayer snow scheme shows promising results in the simulation of snow as well as Indian summer monsoon rainfall and hence this development may be the part of the future version of the CFS.

Does Nutrition Cause Intelligence? A Reanalysis of the Cali Experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bejar, Isaac I.

1981-01-01

Recent literature suggests a causal link between malnutrition and impaired cognitive development. A selective literature review indicates that the presence or absence of such a link cannot be established. A reanalysis of an experiment indicated after four years of treatment there was no association between cognitive and nutritional status.…

Syntactic Reconstruction and Reanalysis, Semantic Dead Ends, and Prefrontal Cortex

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

2010-01-01

have been to Paris than […] to Oslo), using pseudo-elliptical structures (‘dead ends’) as control (More people have been to Paris than I have). (ii) Reanalysis in the face of structural ambiguity in syntactic ‘garden paths’, where the parser initially assigns an incorrect structure and is forced...

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

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Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

2017-07-01

The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from climate.copernicus.eu" target="_blank">ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

An inter-comparison of six latent and sensible heat flux products over the Southern Ocean

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Lejiang Yu

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The latent heat fluxes (LHF and sensible heat fluxes (SHF over the Southern Ocean from six different data sets are inter-compared for the period 1988–2000. The six data sets include three satellite-based products, namely, the second version of the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes data set (GSSTF-2, the third version of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS-3 and the Japanese Ocean Fluxes Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO; two global reanalysis products, namely, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set (NCEP-2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis data set (ERA-40; and the Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans data set (OAFlux. All these products reveal a similar pattern in the averaged flux fields. The zonal mean LHF fields all exhibit a continuous increase equatorward. With an exception of HOAPS-3, the zonal mean SHF fields display a minimum value near 50°S, increasing both pole- and equatorward. The differences in the standard deviation for LHF are larger among the six data products than the differences for SHF. Over the regions where the surface fluxes are significantly influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation and the Pacific–South American teleconnection, the values and distributions of both LHF and SHF are consistent among the six products. It was found that the spatial patterns of the standard deviations and trends of LHF and SHF can be explained primarily by sea–air specific humidity and temperature differences; wind speed plays a minor role.

Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goubanova, K. [CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Instituto del Mar del Peru, Callao (Peru); Echevin, V.; Terray, P. [IPSL/UPMC/IRD, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et de Climatologie, Experimentation et Approches Numeriques, Paris (France); Dewitte, B. [CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale, Toulouse (France); Instituto del Mar del Peru, Callao (Peru); Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima (Peru); Codron, F. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Takahashi, K. [Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima (Peru); Vrac, M. [IPSL/CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2011-04-15

The key aspect of the ocean circulation off Peru-Chile is the wind-driven upwelling of deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters that promote a rich marine ecosystem. It has been suggested that global warming may be associated with an intensification of upwelling-favorable winds. However, the lack of high-resolution long-term observations has been a limitation for a quantitative analysis of this process. In this study, we use a statistical downscaling method to assess the regional impact of climate change on the sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region as simulated by the global coupled general circulation model IPSL-CM4. Taking advantage of the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind product and of the NCEP reanalysis data, a statistical model based on multiple linear regressions is built for the daily mean meridional and zonal wind at 10 m for the period 2000-2008. The large-scale 10 m wind components and sea level pressure are used as regional circulation predictors. The skill of the downscaling method is assessed by comparing with the surface wind derived from the ERS satellite measurements, with in situ wind observations collected by ICOADS and through cross-validation. It is then applied to the outputs of the IPSL-CM4 model over stabilized periods of the pre-industrial, 2 x CO{sub 2} and 4 x CO{sub 2} IPCC climate scenarios. The results indicate that surface along-shore winds off central Chile (off central Peru) experience a significant intensification (weakening) during Austral winter (summer) in warmer climates. This is associated with a general decrease in intra-seasonal variability. (orig.)

Effects of Initial Drivers and Land Use on WRF Modeling for Near-Surface Fields and Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Junhua Yang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available To improve the simulation performance of mesoscale models in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, two reanalysis initial datasets (NCEP FNL and ERA-Interim and two MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land-use datasets (from 2001 and 2010 are used in WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting modeling. The model can reproduce the variations of 2 m temperature (T2 and 2 m relative humidity (RH2, but T2 is overestimated and RH2 is underestimated in the control experiment. After using the new initial drive and land use data, the simulation precision in T2 is improved by the correction of overestimated net energy flux at surface and the RH2 is improved due to the lower T2 and larger soil moisture. Due to systematic bias in WRF modeling for wind speed, we design another experiment that includes the Jimenez subgrid-scale orography scheme, which reduces the frequency of low wind speed and increases the frequency of high wind speed and that is more consistent with the observation. Meanwhile, the new drive and land-use data lead to lower boundary layer height and influence the potential temperature and wind speed in both the lower atmosphere and the upper layer, while the impact on water vapor mixing ratio is primarily concentrated in the lower atmosphere.

FGOALS-s2 simulation of upper-level jet streams over East Asia: Mean state bias and synoptic-scale transient eddy activity

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Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun

2013-05-01

Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project II reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux ( E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean.

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

2018-01-01

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context

Accurate reanalysis of structures by a preconditioned conjugate gradient method

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kirsch, U.; Kočvara, Michal; Zowe, J.

2002-01-01

Roč. 55, č. 2 (2002), s. 233-251 ISSN 0029-5981 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA1075005 Grant - others:BMBF(DE) 03ZOM3ER Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : preconditioned conjugate gradient s * structural reanalysis Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.468, year: 2002

Detecting Arctic Climate Change Using Koeppen Climate Classification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, M. [Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Overland, J.E. [NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, Washington (United States)

2004-11-01

Ecological impacts of the recent warming trend in the Arctic are already noted as changes in tree line and a decrease in tundra area with the replacement of ground cover by shrubs in northern Alaska and several locations in northern Eurasia. The potential impact of vegetation changes to feedbacks on the atmospheric climate system is substantial because of the large land area impacted and the multi-year persistence of the vegetation cover. Satellite NDVI estimates beginning in 1981 and the Koeppen climate classification, which relates surface types to monthly mean air temperatures from 1901 onward, track these changes on an Arctic-wide basis. Temperature fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU analysis serve as proxy for vegetation cover over the century. A downward trend in the coverage of tundra group for the first 40 yr of the twentieth century was followed by two increases during 1940s and early 1960s, and then a rapid decrease in the last 20 yr. The decrease of tundra group in the 1920-40 period was localized, mostly over Scandinavia; whereas the decrease since 1990 is primarily pan-Arctic, but largest in NW Canada, and eastern and coastal Siberia. The decrease in inferred tundra coverage from 1980 to 2000 was 1.4 x 106 km{sup 2}, or about a 20% reduction in tundra area based on the CRU analyses. This rate of decrease is confirmed by the NDVI data. These tundra group changes in the last 20 yr are accompanied by increase in the area of both the boreal and temperate groups. During the tundra group decrease in the first half of the century boreal group area also decreased while temperate group area increased. The calculated minimum coverage of tundra group from both the Koeppen classification and NDVI indicates that the impact of warming on the spatial coverage of the tundra group in the 1990s is the strongest in the century, and will have multi-decadal consequences for the Arctic.

The temperature signature of an IMF-driven change to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC) in the Antarctic troposphere

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Mervyn; Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth

2017-04-01

We use National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to show that Antarctic surface air temperature anomalies result from differences in the daily-mean duskward component,By, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We find the anomalies have strong geographical and seasonal variations. Regional anomalies are evident poleward of 60˚ S and are of diminishing representative peak amplitude from autumn (3.2˚ C) to winter (2.4˚ C) to spring (1.6˚ C) to summer (0.9˚ C). We demonstrate that anomalies of statistically-significant amplitude are due to geostrophic wind anomalies, resulting from the same By changes, moving air across large meridional gradients in zonal mean air temperature between 60 and 80˚ S. Additionally, we find that the mean tropospheric temperature anomaly for geographical latitudes ≤ -70˚ peaks at about 0.7 K and is statistically significant at the 1 - 5% level between air pressures of 1000 and 500 hPa (i.e., ˜0.1 to 5.6 km altitude above sea level) and for time lags with respect to the IMF of up to 7 days. The signature propagates vertically between air pressure p ≥ 850 hPa (≤ 1.5 km) and p = 500 hPa (˜5.6 km). The characteristics of prompt response and vertical propagation within the troposphere have previously been seen in the correlation between the IMF and high-latitude air pressure anomalies, known as the Mansurov effect, at higher statistical significances (1%). We conclude that we have identified the temperature signature of the Mansurov effect in the Antarctic troposphere. Since these tropospheric anomalies have been associated with By-driven anomalies in the electric potential of the ionosphere, we further conclude that they are caused by IMF-induced changes to the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). Our results support the view that variations in the ionospheric potential act on the troposphere via the action of resulting variations in the

Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin A Reed

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s^-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

A North American regional reanalysis climatology of the Haines Index

Science.gov (United States)

Wei Lu; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Sharon Zhong; Xindi Bian; Shuhua. Liu

2011-01-01

A warm-season (May through October) Haines Index climatology is derived using 32-km regional reanalysis temperature and humidity data from 1980 to 2007. We compute lapse rates, dewpoint depressions, Haines Index factors A and B, and values for each of the low-, mid- and high-elevation variants of the Haines Index. Statistical techniques are used to investigate the...

Water vapor variability and comparisons in the subtropical Pacific from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), and reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Bradford, Mark; Cole, Harold; Fox, Jack; Hock, Terry; Lauritsen, Dean; Loehrer, Scot; Martin, Charlie; Vanandel, Joseph; Weng, Chun-Hsiung; Young, Kathryn

2010-11-01

During the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), from 1 August to 30 September 2008, ˜1900 high-quality, high vertical resolution soundings were collected over the Pacific Ocean. These include dropsondes deployed from four aircrafts and zero-pressure balloons in the stratosphere (NCAR's Driftsonde system). The water vapor probability distribution and spatial variability in the northern subtropical Pacific (14°-20°N, 140°E-155°W) are studied using Driftsonde and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) data and four global reanalysis products. Driftsonde data analysis shows distinct differences of relative humidity (RH) distributions in the free troposphere between the Eastern and Western Pacific (EP and WP, defined as east and west of 180°, respectively), very dry with a single peak of ˜1% RH in the EP and bi-modal distributions in the WP with one peak near ice saturation and one varying with altitude. The frequent occurrences of extreme dry air are found in the driftsonde data with 59% and 19% of RHs less than or equal to 5% and at 1% at 500 hPa in the EP, respectively. RH with respect to ice in the free troposphere exhibits considerable longitudinal variations, very low (problems in Driftsonde, two National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and COSMIC data. The moist layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP shown in the ERA-Interim, JRA and COSMIC is missing in Driftsonde data. Major problems are found in the RH means and variability over the study region for both NCEP reanalyses. Although the higher-moisture layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP in the COSMIC data agrees well with the ERA-Interim and JRA, it is primarily attributed to the first guess of the 1-Dimensional (1D) variational analysis used in the COSMIC retrieval rather than the refractivity measurements. The limited soundings (total 268) of Driftsonde data are capable of

Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations over two solar cycles, and operational forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

2015-12-01

Understanding of the dynamics in Earth's radiation belts is critical to accurate modeling and forecasting of space weather conditions, both which are important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. In the current study, we utilize the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, multi-spacecraft measurements, and a split-operator Kalman filter to recontructe the global state of the radiation belt system in the CRRES era and the current era. The reanalysis has revealed a never before seen 4-belt structure in the radiation belts during the March 1991 superstorm, and highlights several important aspects in regards to the the competition between the source, acceleration, loss, and transport of particles. In addition to the above, performing reanalysis in adiabatic coordinates relies on specification of the Earth's magnetic field, and associated observational, and model errors. We determine the observational errors for the Kalman filter directly from cross-spacecraft phase-space density (PSD) conjunctions, and obtain the error in VERB by comparison with reanalysis over a long time period. Specification of errors associated with several magnetic field models provides an important insight into the applicability of such models for radiation belt research. The comparison of CRRES area reanalysis with Van Allen Probe era reanalysis allows us to perform a global comparison of the dynamics of the radiation belts during different parts of the solar cycle and during different solar cycles. The data assimilative model is presently used to perform operational forecasts of the radiation belts (http://rbm.epss.ucla.edu/realtime-forecast/).

Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. R. Alder

2011-02-01

Full Text Available We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2 nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2 and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 °C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation.

Spring snow albedo feedback over northern Eurasia: Comparing in situ measurements with reanalysis products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wegmann

2018-06-01

Full Text Available This study uses daily observations and modern reanalyses in order to evaluate reanalysis products over northern Eurasia regarding the spring snow albedo feedback (SAF during the period from 2000 to 2013. We used the state-of-the-art reanalyses from ERA-Interim/Land and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2 as well as an experimental set-up of ERA-Interim/Land with prescribed short grass as land cover to enhance the comparability with the station data while underlining the caveats of comparing in situ observations with gridded data. Snow depth statistics derived from daily station data are well reproduced in all three reanalyses. However day-to-day albedo variability is notably higher at the stations than for any reanalysis product. The ERA-Interim grass set-up shows improved performance when representing albedo variability and generates comparable estimates for the snow albedo in spring. We find that modern reanalyses show a physically consistent representation of SAF, with realistic spatial patterns and area-averaged sensitivity estimates. However, station-based SAF values are significantly higher than in the reanalyses, which is mostly driven by the stronger contrast between snow and snow-free albedo. Switching to grass-only vegetation in ERA-Interim/Land increases the SAF values up to the level of station-based estimates. We found no significant trend in the examined 14-year time series of SAF, but interannual changes of about 0.5 % K−1 in both station-based and reanalysis estimates were derived. This interannual variability is primarily dominated by the variability in the snowmelt sensitivity, which is correctly captured in reanalysis products. Although modern reanalyses perform well for snow variables, efforts should be made to improve the representation of dynamic albedo changes.

Testing cloud microphysics parameterizations in NCAR CAM5 with ISDAC and M-PACE observations

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaohong; Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Shi, Xiangjun; Wang, Zhien; Lin, Wuyin; Ghan, Steven J.; Earle, Michael; Liu, Peter S. K.; Zelenyuk, Alla

2011-01-01

Arctic clouds simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) are evaluated with observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), which were conducted at its North Slope of Alaska site in April 2008 and October 2004, respectively. Model forecasts for the Arctic spring and fall seasons performed under the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed framework generally reproduce the spatial distributions of cloud fraction for single-layer boundary-layer mixed-phase stratocumulus and multilayer or deep frontal clouds. However, for low-level stratocumulus, the model significantly underestimates the observed cloud liquid water content in both seasons. As a result, CAM5 significantly underestimates the surface downward longwave radiative fluxes by 20-40 W m-2. Introducing a new ice nucleation parameterization slightly improves the model performance for low-level mixed-phase clouds by increasing cloud liquid water content through the reduction of the conversion rate from cloud liquid to ice by the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process. The CAM5 single-column model testing shows that changing the instantaneous freezing temperature of rain to form snow from -5°C to -40°C causes a large increase in modeled cloud liquid water content through the slowing down of cloud liquid and rain-related processes (e.g., autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain). The underestimation of aerosol concentrations in CAM5 in the Arctic also plays an important role in the low bias of cloud liquid water in the single-layer mixed-phase clouds. In addition, numerical issues related to the coupling of model physics and time stepping in CAM5 are responsible for the model biases and will be explored in future studies.

The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanhove, Jan

2013-01-01

In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph) holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical) tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression) by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

A interação do vento local no interior de um vale com o escoamento de grande escala - análise de dois estudos de caso Interaction of the local wind within a valley with the large-scale flow - analysis of two case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Pires Bitencourt

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Este artigo apresenta dois estudos de caso com objetivo de investigar a interação do vento local no interior de um vale, com o vento sinótico. A direção e a velocidade do vento local são obtidas de dados de resposta lenta medidos em um trecho leste/oeste do vale do rio da Prata, localizado na região de Nova Roma do Sul, Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os dados sinóticos da direção e velocidade dos ventos foram observados às 00, 12 e 18 TMG, em três estações meteorológicas de superfície localizadas na mesorregião do vale estudado. O padrão sinótico é avaliado através de campos meteorológicos construídos com a reanálise do NCEP-NCAR. A análise sinótica e a avaliação empírica do vento local são realizadas com a ajuda de outras variáveis medidas no fundo do vale, tais como radiação solar incidente e temperatura do ar. Os resultados mostram a existência de superposição das forçantes, térmica e canalizada, durante a madrugada e parte da manhã. Porém, quando a temperatura do ar durante a madrugada é baixa, o efeito térmico parece ser mais pronunciado do que o efeito do vento sinótico canalizado. O vento sinótico de norte proporciona um padrão característico do vento local no interior do vale. O escoamento vale abaixo é relativamente mais forte entre a madrugada e a manhã devido à soma dos efeitos, térmico e canalizado. Por outro lado, esses efeitos anulam-se a partir das 12 - 13 h, provocando calmaria no interior do vale.This paper shows two case studies to investigate the interaction of the local wind within a valley with the synoptic-scale wind. The direction and velocity of the local wind are obtained from slow response data measured within an east/west section of Prata valley in Nova Roma do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The synoptic direction and velocity wind were observed at 00, 12 and 18 TMG at three meteorological surface stations, situated in the studied valley. The synoptic pattern is

Isotope Reanalysis for 20th century: Reproduction of isotopic time series in corals, tree-rings, and tropical ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimura, K.

2012-04-01

In the present study, an isotope-incorporated GCM simulation for AD1871 to AD2008 nudged toward the so-called "20th Century Reanalysis (20CR)" atmospheric fields is conducted. Beforehand the long-term integration, a method to downscale ensemble mean fields is proposed, since 20CR is a product of 56-member ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation. The method applies a correction to one of the ensemble members in such a way that the seasonal mean is equal to that of the ensemble mean, and then the corrected member is inputted into the isotope-incorporated GCM (i.e., IsoGSM) with the global spectral nudging technique. Use of the method clearly improves the skill than the cases of using only a single member and of using the ensemble means; the skill becomes equivalent to when 3-6 members are directly used. By comparing with GNIP precipitation isotope database, it is confirmed that the 20C Isotope Reanalysis's performance for latter half of the 20th century is just comparable to the other latest studies. For more comparisons for older periods, proxy records including corals, tree-rings, and tropical ice cores are used. First for corals: the 20C Isotope Reanalysis successfully reproduced the δ18O in surface sea water recorded in the corals at many sites covering large parts of global tropical oceans. The comparison suggests that coral records represent past hydrologic balance information where interannual variability in precipitation is large. Secondly for tree-rings: δ18O of cellulose extracted from the annual rings of the long-lived Bristlecone Pine from White Mountain in Southern California is well reproduced by 20C Isotope Reanalysis. Similar good performance is obtained for Cambodia, too. However, the mechanisms driving the isotopic variations are different over California and Cambodia; for California, Hadley cell's expansion and consequent meridional shift of the submerging dry zone and changes in water vapor source is the dominant control, but in Cambodia

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices and connection to upper-level flow in reanalysis data and a high-resolution model simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Curio, Julia; Schiemann, Reinhard; Hodges, Kevin; Turner, Andrew

2017-04-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding high mountain ranges constitute an important forcing of the atmospheric circulation over Asia due to their height and extent. Therefore, the TP impacts weather and climate in downstream regions of East Asia, especially precipitation. Mesoscale Tibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) are known to be one of the major precipitation-bearing systems on the TP. They are mainly present at the 500 hPa level and have a vertical extent of 2-3 km while their horizontal scale is around 500 km. Their average lifetime is 18 hours. There are two types of TPVs: the largest number originating and staying on the TP, while a smaller number is able to move off the plateau to the east. The latter category can cause extreme precipitation events and severe flooding in large parts of eastern and southern China downstream of the TP, e.g. the Yangtze River valley. The first aim of the study is to identify and track TPVs in reanalysis data and to connect the TPV activity to the position and strength of the upper-level subtropical jet stream, and to determine favourable conditions for TPV development and maintenance. We identify and track TPVs using the TRACK algorithm developed by Hodges et al. (1994). Relative vorticity at the 500 hPa level from the ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses are used as input data. TPVs are retained which originate on the TP and which persist for at least two days, since these are more likely to move off the TP to the East. The second aim is to identify TPVs in a high-resolution, present-day climate model simulation of the MetOffice Unified Model (UPSCALE, HadGEM3 GA3.0) to assess how well the model represents the TPV climatology and variability. We find that the reanalysis data sets and the model show similar results for the statistical measures of TPVs (genesis, track, and lysis density). The TPV genesis region is small and stable at a specific region of the TP throughout the year. The reason for this seems to be the convergence

Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the Subtropical Ridge

OpenAIRE

Chang, C.-P.; Zhang, Yongsheng; Li, Tim

2000-01-01

The interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTs is studied using rainfall data in the Yangtze River Valley and the NCEP reanalysis for 1951–96. The datasets are also partitioned into two periods, 1951–77 and 1978–96, to study the interdecadal variations of this relationship. A wet summer monsoon is preceded by a warm equatorial eastern Pacific in the previous winter and followed by a cold equatorial eastern Pacific in the following fa...

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2014-09-15

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

Geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Stolbova, Veronika; Bookhagen, Bodo; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Juergen

2014-05-01

Complex networks (CN) and event synchronization (ES) methods have been applied to study a number of climate phenomena such as Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), South-American Monsoon, and African Monsoon. These methods proved to be powerful tools to infer interdependencies in climate dynamics between geographical sites, spatial structures, and key regions of the considered climate phenomenon. Here, we use these methods to study the spatial temporal variability of the extreme rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, in order to filter the data by coarse-graining the network, and to identify geographic patterns that are signature features (spatial signatures) of the ISM. We find four main geographic patterns of networks derived from extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent using up-to-date satellite-derived, and high temporal and spatial resolution rain-gauge interpolated daily rainfall datasets. In order to prove that our results are also relevant for other climatic variables like pressure and temperature, we use re-analysis data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). We find that two of the patterns revealed from the CN extreme rainfall analysis coincide with those obtained for the pressure and temperature fields, and all four above mentioned patterns can be explained by topography, winds, and monsoon circulation. CN and ES enable to select the most informative regions for the ISM, providing realistic description of the ISM dynamics with fewer data, and also help to infer geographic pattern that are spatial signatures of the ISM. These patterns deserve a special attention for the meteorologists and can be used as markers of the ISM variability.

Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

2016-11-01

All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

Reconstructing Northern Hemisphere upper-level fields during World War II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broennimann, S. [Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, PO Box 210092, Tucson, AZ 85721-0092 (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); NCCR Climate, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland)

2004-05-01

Monthly mean fields of temperature and geopotential height (GPH) from 700 to 100 hPa were statistically reconstructed for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere for the World War II period. The reconstruction was based on several hundred predictor variables, comprising temperature series from meteorological stations and gridded sea level pressure data (1939-1947) as well as a large amount of historical upper-air data (1939-1944). Statistical models were fitted in a calibration period (1948-1994) using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data set as predictand. The procedure consists of a weighting scheme, principal component analyses on both the predictor variables and the predictand fields and multiple regression models relating the two sets of principal component time series to each other. According to validation experiments, the reconstruction skill in the 1939-1944 period is excellent for GPH at all levels and good for temperature up to 500 hPa, but somewhat worse for 300 hPa temperature and clearly worse for 100 hPa temperature. Regionally, high predictive skill is found over the midlatitudes of Europe and North America, but a lower quality over Asia, the subtropics, and the Arctic. Moreover, the quality is considerably better in winter than in summer. In the 1945-1947 period, reconstructions are useful up to 300 hPa for GPH and, in winter, up to 500 hPa for temperature. The reconstructed fields are presented for selected months and analysed from a dynamical perspective. It is demonstrated that the reconstructions provide a useful tool for the analysis of large-scale circulation features as well as stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 1930s and early 1940s. (orig.)

The Dependency between the Arabian Peninsula Wet Events and Sea Level Pressure Patterns during Spring Season

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2014-05-01

This work investigates the relationships between regional extreme wet events in the Arabian Peninsula during the spring season (MAM) and sea level pressure (SLP) patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, S-mode principal components were computed from the de-seasonalized daily SLP for spring months between 1960 and 2013. The analysis covered a window for the region (15-70°E and 2.5-50°N). This window coupled different oceanic-land influences (e.g. the Indian, Mediterranean and the Sahara configurations) that may impart an effect on rainfall variations in the study domain. A set of eight significant circulation spatial patterns were retained, which explained 84.8% of the total explained variance. The derived patterns explained a wide variety of flows over the peninsula, with a clear distinction between zonal and meridional advections. The extreme wet events (R95 and R99) were defined from a relatively dense network of 209 observatories covering the peninsula, using the 95th and 99th percentile of rainfall distribution respectively. The links between the dominant SLP patterns and significant wet events were established and the physical interpretations of these associations were examined. The results, as revealed by the location and intensity of high pressure centers, highlight the strength of eastern and southeastern advections corresponding to these extreme events. Other patterns have a local character, suggesting an orographic origin of some wet events in the region. The relationships described in this research can advance the understanding of the large-scale processes that contribute to the wet weather events in the Arabian Peninsula. These findings can therefore contribute to better management of water resources and agricultural practices in the region.

Dynamical properties and extremes of Northern Hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Faranda

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric dynamics are described by a set of partial differential equations yielding an infinite-dimensional phase space. However, the actual trajectories followed by the system appear to be constrained to a finite-dimensional phase space, i.e. a strange attractor. The dynamical properties of this attractor are difficult to determine due to the complex nature of atmospheric motions. A first step to simplify the problem is to focus on observables which affect – or are linked to phenomena which affect – human welfare and activities, such as sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency. We make use of recent advances in dynamical systems theory to estimate two instantaneous dynamical properties of the above fields for the Northern Hemisphere: local dimension and persistence. We then use these metrics to characterize the seasonality of the different fields and their interplay. We further analyse the large-scale anomaly patterns corresponding to phase-space extremes – namely time steps at which the fields display extremes in their instantaneous dynamical properties. The analysis is based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, over the period 1948–2013. The results show that (i despite the high dimensionality of atmospheric dynamics, the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure and temperature fields can on average be described by roughly 20 degrees of freedom; (ii the precipitation field has a higher dimensionality; and (iii the seasonal forcing modulates the variability of the dynamical indicators and affects the occurrence of phase-space extremes. We further identify a number of robust correlations between the dynamical properties of the different variables.

Testing the performance of three nonlinear methods of time seriesanalysis for prediction and downscaling of European daily temperatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Miksovsky

2005-01-01

Full Text Available We investigated the usability of the method of local linear models (LLM, multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN and radial basis function neural network (RBF NN for the construction of temporal and spatial transfer functions between different meteorological quantities, and compared the obtained results both mutually and to the results of multiple linear regression (MLR. The tested methods were applied for the short-term prediction of daily mean temperatures and for the downscaling of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, using series of daily mean, minimum and maximum temperatures from 25 European stations as predictands. None of the tested nonlinear methods was recognized to be distinctly superior to the others, but all nonlinear techniques proved to be better than linear regression in the majority of the cases. It is also discussed that the most frequently used nonlinear method, the MLP neural network, may not be the best choice for processing the climatic time series - LLM method or RBF NNs can offer a comparable or slightly better performance and they do not suffer from some of the practical disadvantages of MLPs. Aside from comparing the performance of different methods, we paid attention to geographical and seasonal variations of the results. The forecasting results showed that the nonlinear character of relations between climate variables is well apparent over most of Europe, in contrast to rather weak nonlinearity in the Mediterranean and North Africa. No clear large-scale geographical structure of nonlinearity was identified in the case of downscaling. Nonlinearity also seems to be noticeably stronger in winter than in summer in most locations, for both forecasting and downscaling.

Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

2018-01-01

Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

Controls of precipitation δ18O on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau: A case study at Ngari station

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaoyu; Tian, Lide; Wen, Rong; Yu, Wusheng; Qu, Dongmei

2017-06-01

The shifting atmospheric circulation between the Indian monsoon and the westerlies on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau (TP) influences precipitation as well as precipitation isotopes. Isotopic records will therefore show historical fluctuations. To understand better the factors controlling present day precipitation δ18O values on the northwestern TP, we made continuous observations of precipitation isotopes at Ngari station from 2010 to 2013. The drivers of precipitation δ18O were investigated using analyses of their statistical relations with temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, and convective activities based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from NOAA satellites, and downward shortwave radiation (DSR) data collected at the Ngari automatic weather station. Atmospheric circulation patterns from NCAR reanalysis, and moisture transport paths of individual events derived from the HYSPLIT model using NCEP data, were also used to trace moisture sources. The results of our study include: (1) The slope and intercept of the Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) at Ngari (δD = 8.51 δ18O + 11.57 (R2 = 0.97, p < 0.01)) were higher than for the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL), indicating drier local climatic conditions; (2) Precipitation δ18O values showed a weak ;temperature effect; and a weak ;precipitation amount effect; at Ngari; and (3) Convection (or temperature patterns) integrated over several days (0-20) preceding each event were determined to be the main driver of precipitation isotopic values in monsoon (or non-monsoon) season. The longer (shorter) periods of τm days when correlation coefficients between precipitation δ18O and OLR were at their maxima (minima) indicate deep convective activities (shorter moisture transportation pathways) in August (June, July, and September).

Intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall and its related atmospheric circulation features during the 1991 summer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Beijing (China); Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

2006-12-15

The intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall over eastern China and its related atmospheric circulation characteristics during the 1991 summer are examined based on the gauge-observed rainfall and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Wavelet analysis shows that during the 1991 summer, the active and break sequences of rainfall over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin are mainly regulated by an oscillatory mode with a period of 15-35 days. An investigation of the circulation features suggests that the 15-35-day oscillation is associated with an anomalous low-level cyclone (anticyclone) appearing alternatively over the northern South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea, and related to a northeastward (southwestward) shift of the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the SCS, leading to a lower tropospheric divergence (convergence) over the Yangtze Basin. In the upper troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation exhibits a dipole anomaly characterized by an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over eastern China and an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the northern Tibetan Plateau, resulting in a southwestward shrinking (northeastward extending) of the South Asian anticyclone, and forming a convergence (divergence) over eastern China. Such a coupled anomalous flow pattern between the lower and upper troposphere favors large-scale descending (ascending) motion, and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall over the Yangtze Basin. Dynamically, the intraseasonal variations in the Yangtze rainfall are mainly determined by the coupling between the low-level relative vorticity and the upper-level divergence. In the middle troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation of the subtropical high is originated over the central North Pacific north of Hawaii, then propagates westward to the SCS-Philippine Sea, and finally modulates the intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall. (orig.)

A comparison of explosive cyclone characteristics in recent reanalyses: NCEP CFSR, JRA-55, and ERA-Interim

Science.gov (United States)

Kita, Y.; Waseda, T.

2016-12-01

Explosive cyclones (EXPCs) were investigated in three recent reanalyses. Their tracking methods is diverse among researchers, and additionally reanalysis data they use are various. Reanalysis data are essential as initial conditions to implement a downscale simulation with high accuracy. In this study, characteristics of EXPCs in three recent reanalyses were investigated from several perspectives: track densities, minimum MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure), and radius of EXPCs. The tracking method of extratropical cyclones (ECs) is to track local minimum of MSLP. The domain is limited to Eastern Asia and the North Pacific Ocean (lat20°:70°, lon100°:200°), and target period is 2000-2014. Fig.1 shows that the frequencies of EXPCs, which is defined as ECs whose MSLP drops by over 12hPa in 12hours, are greatly different, noting that extracted EXPCs are those whose most deepening phases were located around Japan (lat20°:60°, lon110°:160°). In addition, they are dissimilar to those in a previous EXPCs database (Kawamura et al.) and results in weather map analyses. The differences between each frequency might be caused by MSLP at their centers: there were sometimes small gaps of a few hPa. The minimum MSLP and effective radius were also investigated, but distributions of effective radii of EXPCs did not show significant difference (Fig.2). Thus, the gaps of central MSLP just matter in the differences of their trends. To evaluate the path density of EXPCs, two-dimensional kernel density estimation was conducted. The kernel densities of EXPCs' tracks in three reanalyses seem similar: they accumulated apparently above ocean (not shown). Two-dimensional kernel densities of EXPCs' most deepening points accumulated above Sea of Japan, Kuroshio and Extension. Therefore, it is proved that there are considerable differences in numbers of EXPCs depending on reanalyses, while the general characteristics of EXPCs just have little difference. It is worthwhile to say that careful

PREDICTIONS OF DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION OF FALLOUT FROM NUCLEAR TESTING USING THE NOAA-HYSPLIT METEOROLOGICAL MODEL

Science.gov (United States)

Moroz, Brian E.; Beck, Harold L.; Bouville, André; Simon, Steven L.

2013-01-01

The NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) was evaluated as a research tool to simulate the dispersion and deposition of radioactive fallout from nuclear tests. Model-based estimates of fallout can be valuable for use in the reconstruction of past exposures from nuclear testing, particularly, where little historical fallout monitoring data is available. The ability to make reliable predictions about fallout deposition could also have significant importance for nuclear events in the future. We evaluated the accuracy of the HYSPLIT-predicted geographic patterns of deposition by comparing those predictions against known deposition patterns following specific nuclear tests with an emphasis on nuclear weapons tests conducted in the Marshall Islands. We evaluated the ability of the computer code to quantitatively predict the proportion of fallout particles of specific sizes deposited at specific locations as well as their time of transport. In our simulations of fallout from past nuclear tests, historical meteorological data were used from a reanalysis conducted jointly by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We used a systematic approach in testing the HYSPLIT model by simulating the release of a range of particles sizes from a range of altitudes and evaluating the number and location of particles deposited. Our findings suggest that the quantity and quality of meteorological data are the most important factors for accurate fallout predictions and that when satisfactory meteorological input data are used, HYSPLIT can produce relatively accurate deposition patterns and fallout arrival times. Furthermore, when no other measurement data are available, HYSPLIT can be used to indicate whether or not fallout might have occurred at a given location and provide, at minimum, crude quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the deposited activity. A variety of

Sub-Seasonal Prediction of the Maritime Continent Rainfall of Wet-Dry Transitional Seasons in the NCEP Climate Forecast Version 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuantuan Zhang

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the characteristics and prediction of the Maritime Continent (MC rainfall for the transitional periods between wet and dry seasons. Several observational data sets and the output from the 45-day hindcast by the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2 are used. Results show that the MC experiences a sudden transition from wet season to dry season (WTD around the 27th pentad, and a gradual transition from dry season to wet season (DTW around the 59th pentad. Correspondingly, the westerlies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the easterlies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Australia High become weaker, contributing to weakening of the convergence over the MC. The subtropical western Pacific high intensifies and extends northeastward during the WTD. The Mascarene High becomes weaker, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation forms over the northeast of the Philippines, and an anomalous low-level convergence occurs over the western MC during the DTW. The NCEP CFSv2 captures the major features of rainfall and related atmospheric circulation when forecast lead time is less than three weeks for WTD and two weeks for DTW. The model predicts a weaker amplitude of the changes in rainfall and related atmospheric circulation for both WTD and DTW as lead time increases.

Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

Applying an economical scale-aware PDF-based turbulence closure model in NOAA NCEP GCMs.

Science.gov (United States)

Belochitski, A.; Krueger, S. K.; Moorthi, S.; Bogenschutz, P.; Cheng, A.

2017-12-01

A novel unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence, cloudiness, and shallow convection is being implemented into the NOAA NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) general circulation model. The approach, known as Simplified High Order Closure (SHOC), is based on predicting a joint PDF of SGS thermodynamic variables and vertical velocity, and using it to diagnose turbulent diffusion coefficients, SGS fluxes, condensation, and cloudiness. Unlike other similar methods, comparatively few new prognostic variables needs to be introduced, making the technique computationally efficient. In the base version of SHOC it is SGS turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and in the developmental version — SGS TKE, and variances of total water and moist static energy (MSE). SHOC is now incorporated into a version of GFS that will become a part of the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System based around NOAA GFDL's FV3 dynamical core, NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) coupled modeling infrastructure software, and a set novel physical parameterizations. Turbulent diffusion coefficients computed by SHOC are now used in place of those produced by the boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection parameterizations. Large scale microphysics scheme is no longer used to calculate cloud fraction or the large-scale condensation/deposition. Instead, SHOC provides these quantities. Radiative transfer parameterization uses cloudiness computed by SHOC. An outstanding problem with implementation of SHOC in the NCEP global models is excessively large high level tropical cloudiness. Comparison of the moments of the SGS PDF diagnosed by SHOC to the moments calculated in a GigaLES simulation of tropical deep convection case (GATE), shows that SHOC diagnoses too narrow PDF distributions of total cloud water and MSE in the areas of deep convective detrainment. A subsequent sensitivity study of SHOC's diagnosed cloud fraction (CF) to higher order input moments of the SGS PDF

SST algorithms in ACSPO reanalysis of AVHRR GAC data from 2002-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Petrenko, B.; Ignatov, A.; Kihai, Y.; Zhou, X.; Stroup, J.

2014-05-01

In response to a request from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Program, NOAA SST Team initiated reprocessing of 4 km resolution GAC data from AVHRRs flown onboard NOAA and MetOp satellites. The objective is to create a longterm Level 2 Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) SST product, consistent with NOAA operations. ACSPO-Reanalysis (RAN) is used as input in the NOAA geo-polar blended Level 4 SST and potentially other Level 4 SST products. In the first stage of reprocessing (reanalysis 1, or RAN1), data from NOAA-15, -16, -17, -18, -19, and Metop-A and -B, from 2002-present have been processed with ACSPO v2.20, and matched up with quality controlled in situ data from in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam) version 1. The ~12 years time series of matchups were used to develop and explore the SST retrieval algorithms, with emphasis on minimizing spatial biases in retrieved SSTs, close reproduction of the magnitudes of true SST variations, and maximizing temporal, spatial and inter-platform stability of retrieval metrics. Two types of SST algorithms were considered: conventional SST regressions, and recently developed incremental regressions. The conventional equations were adopted in the EUMETSAT OSI-SAF formulation, which, according to our previous analyses, provide relatively small regional biases and well-balanced combination of precision and sensitivity, in its class. Incremental regression equations were specifically elaborated to automatically correct for model minus observation biases, always present when RTM simulations are employed. Improved temporal stability was achieved by recalculation of SST coefficients from matchups on a daily basis, with a +/-45 day window around the current date. This presentation describes the candidate SST algorithms considered for the next round of ACSPO reanalysis, RAN2.

Geodetic reanalysis of annual glaciological mass balances (2001-2011) of Hintereisferner, Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Klug, Christoph; Bollmann, Erik; Galos, Stephan Peter; Nicholson, Lindsey; Prinz, Rainer; Rieg, Lorenzo; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Kaser, Georg

2018-03-01

This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained annual glacier mass balances at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria, for the period 2001-2011. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid-based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two methods of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual, as well as the cumulative, mass changes over the 10-year record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.), and 2006/07 (-0.45 m w.e.). We conclude that exceptional meteorological conditions can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as validation or calibration tools for the glaciological method.

COR1 Engineering Test Unit Measurements at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility, October-November 2002

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Thompson, William

2002-01-01

The Engineering Test Unit (ETU) of COR1 was made in two configurations. The first configuration, ETU-1, was for vibration testing, while the second, ETU-2, was for optical testing. This is a report on the optical testing performed on ETU-2 at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility during the months of October and November, 2002. This was the same facility used to test the two previous breadboard models. In both configurations, the first two tube sections were complete, with all optical elements aligned. The vibration model ETU-1 had the remaining tube sections attached, with mass models for the remaining optics, for the various mechanisms, and for the focal plane assembly. It was then converted into the optical model ETU-2 by removing tube sections 3 to 5, and mounting the remaining optics on commercial mounts. (The bandpass filter was also installed into tube 2, which had been replaced in ETU-1 by a mass model, so that pre- and post-vibration optical measurements could be made.) Doublet 2 was installed in a Newport LP-2 carrier, and aligned to the other optics in the first two tube sections. The LP-2 adjustment screws were then uralened so that the alignment could be maintained during shipping. Because neither the flight polarizer nor Hollow Core Motor were available, they were simulated by a commercial polarizer and rotational mount, both from Oriel corporation. The Oriel rotational stage was not designed for vacuum use, but it was determined after consultation with the company, and lab testing, that the stage could be used in the moderate vacuum conditions at the NCAR/HAO facility. The shutter and focal plane assembly were simulated with the same camera used for the previous two breadboard tests. The focal plane mask was simulated with a plane of BK7 glass with a mask glued on, using the same procedure as for the Lyot spot on Doublet 1, and mounted in an adjustable LP-2 carrier. Two masks were made, one made to the precise specifications of the optical design, the

The Roles of Convection Parameterization in the Formation of Double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes

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Song, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Guang J.

2018-03-01

Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long-standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

A climatology based on reanalysis of baroclinic developmental regions in the extratropical northern hemisphere.

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de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; Noguerol, Marta; Añel, Juan Antonio; Gimeno, Luis

2008-12-01

Regions of the occurrence of different phenomena related to the development of baroclinic disturbances are reviewed for the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The occurrence of height lows appears to be related to the orography near the earth's surface and with surface- and upper-air cyclogenesis in the upper troposphere. Over the cyclone tracks, the surface maxima appear to be trapped by land masses, whereas over the Mediterranean Sea they are located on the lee side of mountain ranges. The forcing terms of the geopotential tendency and omega equations mark the genesis (and, by the vorticity advection terms, the path) of the extratropical cyclones on the storm track. They occur mostly over the western coast of the oceans, beginning and having maxima on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Their associated fronts form from the cold air coming from the continents and converging with the warm air over the Gulf and Kuroshio currents. Evident trends are found only for the Atlantic cyclone track (positive) and the Pacific cyclone track (negative) until the last decade when the tendency reverses. Over the southern Pacific, the number of fronts is lower during 1978-1997, coinciding with a period of strong El Niño Southern Oscillation episodes. This information is important for validating numerical models in order to predict changes associated with climate change and to study the behavior of extratropical cyclones and fronts.

Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

2017-07-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

Effect of Terrestrial and Marine Organic Aerosol on Regional and Global Climate: Model Development, Application, and Verification with Satellite Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meskhidze, Nicholas; Zhang, Yang; Kamykowski, Daniel

2012-03-28

configuration of physics options in GWRF for global scale modeling in 2001 at a horizontal grid resolution of 1° x 1°. GU-WRF model output was evaluated using observational datasets from a variety of sources including surface based observations (NCDC and BSRN), model reanalysis (NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis and CMAP), and remotely-sensed data (TRMM) to evaluate the ability of GU-WRF to simulate atmospheric variables at the surface as well as aloft. Explicit treatment of nanoparticles produced from new particle formation in GU-WRF/Chem-MADRID was achieved by expanding particle size sections from 8 to 12 to cover particles with the size range of 1.16 nm to 11.6m. Simulations with two different nucleation parameterizations were conducted for August 2002 over a global domain at a 4º by 5º horizontal resolution. The results are evaluated against field measurement data from the 2002 Aerosol Nucleation and Real Time Characterization Experiment (ANARChE) in Atlanta, Georgia, as well as satellite and reanalysis data. We have also explored the relationship between clean marine aerosol optical properties and ocean surface wind speed using remotely sensed data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on board the CALIPSO satellite and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on board the AQUA satellite. Detailed data analyses were carried out over 15 regions selected to be representative of different areas of the global ocean for the time period from June 2006 to April 2011. We show that for very low (less than 4 m s-1) and very high (more than 12 m s-1) wind speed conditions the mean CALIPSO-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) has little dependency on the surface wind speed. For an intermediate (between 4 and 12 m s-1) marine AOD was linearly correlated with the surface wind speed values, with a slope of 0.0062 s m-1. Results of our study suggest that considerable improvements to both optical properties of marine aerosols and their production mechanisms

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds over the Nordic Seas and their application for ocean modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

2017-04-01

Ocean processes in the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic are strongly controlled by air-sea heat and momentum fluxes. The predominantly cyclonic, large-scale atmospheric circulation brings the deep ocean layer up to the surface preconditioning the convective sites in the Nordic Seas for deep convection. In winter, intensive cooling and possibly salt flux from newly formed sea ice erodes the near-surface stratification and the mixed layer merges with the deeper domed layer, exposing the very weakly stratified deep water mass to direct interaction with the atmosphere. Surface wind is one of the atmospheric parameters required for estimating momentum and turbulent heat fluxes to the sea ice and ocean surface. In the ocean models forced by atmospheric analysis, errors in surface wind fields result in errors in air-sea heat and momentum fluxes, water mass formation, ocean circulation, as well as volume and heat transport in the straits. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products over the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic and to demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. The analyzed data sets include the reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) and satellite wind products Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and Remote Sensing Systems QuikSCAT data. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storm events. Next, it is hypothesized that discrepancies in the wind vorticity

Self-Disorder and Brain Processing of Proprioception in Schizophrenia Spectrum Patients: A Re-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnfred, Sidse M.; Raballo, Andrea; Mørup, Morten

2015-01-01

with abnormalities of early contralateral proprioceptive evoked oscillatory brain activity. Methods : We investigated the association between proprioceptive evoked potential components and SDs in a re-analysis of data from a subsample (n = 12) of SZS patients who had previously been observed with deviant...

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards

Evaluation of PM2.5 surface concentration simulated by Version 1 of the NASA’s MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis over Israel and Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Provençal, Simon; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Leduc, Richard; Barrette, Nathalie; Elhacham, Emily; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang

2018-01-01

Version 1 of the NASA MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) assimilates bias-corrected aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua, and simulates particulate matter (PM) concentration data to reproduce a consistent database of AOD and PM concentration around the world from 2002 to the end of 2015. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate MERRAero’s simulation of fine PM concentration against surface measurements in two regions of the world with relatively high levels of PM concentration but with profoundly different PM composition, those of Israel and Taiwan. Being surrounded by major deserts, Israel’s PM load is characterized by a significant contribution of mineral dust, and secondary contributions of sea salt particles, given its proximity to the Mediterranean Sea, and sulfate particles originating from Israel’s own urban activities and transported from Europe. Taiwan’s PM load is composed primarily of anthropogenic particles (sulfate, nitrate and carbonaceous particles) locally produced or transported from China, with an additional contribution of springtime transport of mineral dust originating from Chinese and Mongolian deserts. The evaluation in Israel produced favorable results with MERRAero slightly overestimating measurements by 6% on average and reproducing an excellent year-to-year and seasonal fluctuation. The evaluation in Taiwan was less favorable with MERRAero underestimating measurements by 42% on average. Two likely reasons explain this discrepancy: emissions of anthropogenic PM and their precursors are largely uncertain in China, and MERRAero doesn’t include nitrate particles in its simulation, a pollutant of predominately anthropogenic sources. MERRAero nevertheless simulates well the concentration of fine PM during the summer, when Taiwan is least affected by the advection of pollution from China. PMID:29670645

Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

2018-02-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

Reanalysis and semantic persistence in native and non-native garden-path recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob, Gunnar; Felser, Claudia

2016-01-01

We report the results from an eye-movement monitoring study investigating how native and non-native speakers of English process temporarily ambiguous sentences such as While the gentleman was eating the burgers were still being reheated in the microwave, in which an initially plausible direct-object analysis is first ruled out by a syntactic disambiguation (were) and also later on by semantic information (being reheated). Both participant groups showed garden-path effects at the syntactic disambiguation, with native speakers showing significantly stronger effects of ambiguity than non-native speakers in later eye-movement measures but equally strong effects in first-pass reading times. Ambiguity effects at the semantic disambiguation and in participants' end-of-trial responses revealed that for both participant groups, the incorrect direct-object analysis was frequently maintained beyond the syntactic disambiguation. The non-native group showed weaker reanalysis effects at the syntactic disambiguation and was more likely to misinterpret the experimental sentences than the native group. Our results suggest that native language (L1) and non-native language (L2) parsing are similar with regard to sensitivity to syntactic and semantic error signals, but different with regard to processes of reanalysis.

Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past Fifty-Seven Years (1958-2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, B.; Shin, C. S.; Shukla, J.; Marx, L.; Balmaseda, M.; Halder, S.; Dirmeyer, P.; Kinter, J. L.

2016-12-01

A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958-2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initialized with observation-based ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice reanalyses, including the Eu­ropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global ocean reanalysis version 4, the ERA-40 atmospheric reanalysis, the NCEP CFS Reanalysis for atmosphere, land and sea ice, and the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System reanalysis version 2.0 for land. The purpose is to examine a long and continuous seasonal reforecast dataset from a modern seasonal forecast system to be used by the research community. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset allows us to evaluate the degree to which El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted, using a larger sample of events. Furthermore, we can directly compare the predictability of the ENSO events in 1960s-70s with the more widely studied ENSO events occurring since the 1980s to examine the state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system's capability at different phases of global climate change and multidecadal variability. A major concern is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 have useful skill when there were fewer ocean observations. Our preliminary examination of the reforecasts shows that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting the SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the ENSO onset and development for 1958-1978 is comparable to that for 1979-2014. The skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase because the reforecasts initialized after the summer season persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the decaying phase of several major ENSO events in the 1960s-70s. Since the 1980s, the reforecasts initialized in fall overestimate the peak SST

Re-analysis of RNA-Sequencing Data on Apple Stem Grooving Virus infected Apple reveals more significant differentially expressed genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bipin Balan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq technology has enabled the researchers to investigate the host global gene expression changes in plant-virus interactions which helped to understand the molecular basis of virus diseases. The re-analysis of RNA-Seq studies using most updated genome version and the available best analysis pipeline will produce most accurate results. In this study, we re-analysed the Apple stem grooving virus (ASGV infected apple shoots in comparison with that of virus-free in vitro shoots [1] using the most updated Malus x domestica genome downloaded from Phytozome database. The re-analysis was done by using HISAT2 software and Cufflinks program was used to mine the differentially expressed genes. We found that ~20% more reads was mapped to the latest genome using the updated pipeline, which proved the significance of such re-analysis. The comparison of the updated results with that of previous was done. In addition, we performed protein-protein interaction (PPI to investigate the proteins affected by ASGV infection.

Regime-Dependent Differences in Surface Freshwater Exchange Estimates Over the Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Sun; Behrangi, Ali

2018-01-01

Differences in gridded precipitation (P), surface evaporation (E), and the resultant surface freshwater exchange (P - E) among different products over the ocean are diagnosed as functions of moisture advection (Qadvt) and moisture tendency by dynamical convergence (Qcnvg). Compared to the GPCP product, the TRMM3B42 product captures higher frequency of precipitation with larger extreme precipitation rates in regimes of deep convection and more light rain detections in regimes of frequent occurrence of boundary layer clouds. Discrepancies in E depend on moisture flux divergence, with the OAFlux product having the largest E in regimes of divergence. Discrepancies in mean P - E in deep convective regimes are highly influenced by differences in precipitation, with the TRMM3B42 product yielding P - E histograms closer to those inferred from the reanalysis moisture flux convergence. In nonconvergent regimes, observation-based P - E histograms skew toward positive values while the inferred reanalysis histograms are symmetric about the means.

Characterization of the variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone using satellite and reanalysis wind products

Science.gov (United States)

Kidwell, Autumn; Lee, Tong; Jo, Young-Heon; Yan, Xiao-hai

2016-04-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the largest rain band worldwide during austral summer, is important to atmospheric circulation (including cyclone genesis) and ocean circulation. Previous studies of the SPCZ have focused on parameters such as outgoing longwave radiation or precipitation. However, wind convergence is fundamental causing the variations of these parameters. In this study, the SPCZ variability is examined using ocean surface wind products derived from NASA's QuickSCAT (1999-2009) and ESA's ASCAT (2007 onward) satellite scatterometers and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis (1981 onward). From these products, indices were developed to characterize the SPCZ strength, area, and centroid location. Excellent agreement is found in terms of the temporal variations of the indices derived from the satellites and reanalysis wind products, despite some small differences in the time-mean SPCZ strength. The SPCZ strength, area, and centroid latitude have a dominant seasonal cycle. In contrast, the SPCZ centroid longitude is dominated by intraseasonal variability due to the influence by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The SPCZ indices are all correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. Interannual and intraseasonal variations of SPCZ strength during strong El Niño are approximately twice as large as the respective seasonal variations. SPCZ strength depends more on the intensity of El Niño rather than the central- vs. eastern-Pacific type. The longer ERA-Interim product is also used to examine decadal variations of the SPCZ indices. The change from positive to negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase around 1999 resulted in a westward shift of the SPCZ centroid longitude, much smaller interannual swing in centroid latitude, and a decrease in SPCZ area. This study improves the understanding of the variations of the SPCZ on multiple time scales and reveals the variations of SPCZ strength not reported previously. The diagnostics analyses can be

Coastal upwelling in the Gelendzhik area of the Black Sea: Effect of wind and dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestrova, K. P.; Zatsepin, A. G.; Myslenkov, S. A.

2017-07-01

Long series data of a thermistor chain in the Black Sea coastal zone near Gelendzhik were analyzed. A thermistor chain installed 1 km offshore and at a depth of 22 m. There are full and incomplete upwelling events observed. The study of upwelling genesis based on: wind speed data from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis and Gelendzhik weather station, velocity and direction of coastal currents measured by ADCP profiler moored on the bottom near the thermistor chain. Over the whole observation period (warm seasons of 2013-2015), more than 40 events of upwelling were registered four of them were full upwellings, when presence of under-thermocline water was observed near the sea surface. For every upwelling event, conditions prior to the changes in thermic structure, were analyzed. It is found that full upwelling generally occur under synergistic wind and current forcing. Fairly strong forcing of one of these factors is sufficient for partial upwelling to occur.

Comment to the 'Reanalysis of the Eoetvoes experiment'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vecsernyes, P.

1986-07-01

A recent reanalysis of the classical Eoetvoes experiment - concerning the relation between the inertial and gravitational mass - shows strong correlation between the baryon number per unit mass of the samples and the deviations from the strict linearity measured by Eoetvoes. This result can be interpreted as an evidence for the existence of a new basic interaction of medium range, 'the fifth force'. Another possible candidate for carrying a new interaction is the lepton charge, the symmetric pair of the baryon charge in grand unified models. It is pointed out that the deviations from the null results in the Eoetvoes experiment do not correlate with the lepton charge per unit mass of the samples used by Eotvoes, only with their baryon charges. (D.Gy.)

Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, Pat; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Marie, B.; Cappelaere, B.; Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Noubellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

2012-01-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled actual evapotranspiration (AET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a model driven by dynamic canopy AET was combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the NOAH Land Surface Model (GNOAH) wet canopy and soil AET for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against AET from the GNOAH model and dynamic model using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance are at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites is poor, but better than individual models. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a dynamic vegetation component with land surface model estimates, improved model parameterization, and reduction of multiplicative effects of uncertain data.

Interannual and Decadal Variations of Planetary Wave Activity, Stratospheric Cooling, and Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yongyun; Kit Tung, Ka

2002-07-01

Using NCEP-NCAR 51-yr reanalysis data, the interannual and decadal variations of planetary wave activity and its relationship to stratospheric cooling, and the Northern Hemisphere Annular mode (NAM), are studied. It is found that winter stratospheric polar temperature is highly correlated on a year-to-year basis with the Eliassen-Palm (E-P) wave flux from the troposphere, implying a dynamical control of the former by the latter, as often suggested. Greater (lower) wave activity from the troposphere implies larger (smaller) poleward heat flux into the polar region, which leads to warmer (colder) polar temperature. A similar highly correlated antiphase relationship holds for E-P flux divergence and the strength of the polar vortex in the stratosphere. It is tempting to extrapolate these relationships found for interannual timescales to explain the recent stratospheric polar cooling trend in the past few decades as caused by decreased wave activity in the polar region. This speculation is not supported by the data. On timescales of decades the cooling trend is not correlated with the trend in planetary wave activity. In fact, it is found that planetary wave amplitude, E-P flux, and E-P flux convergence all show little statistical evidence of decrease in the past 51 yr, while the stratosphere is experiencing a cooling trend and the NAM index has a positive trend during the past 30 yr. This suggests that the trends in the winter polar temperature and the NAM index can reasonably be attributed to the radiative cooling of the stratosphere, due possibly to increasing greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. It is further shown that the positive trend of the NAM index in the past few decades is not through the inhibition of upward planetary wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere, as previously suggested.

Small-Scale Gravity Waves in ER-2 MMS/MTP Wind and Temperature Measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, L.; Alexander, M. J.; Bui, T. P.; Mahoney, M. J.

2006-01-01

Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs) at the aircraft's flight level (typically approximately 20 km altitude). For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform) was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of approximately 5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, approximately 20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus

Spatiotemporal Variability and Change of the South China Spring Precipitation during 1961–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Lan Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations spanning between 1961 and 2012 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to understand spatiotemporal variability and change of spring precipitation of South China and their relations to atmospheric circulations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis and rotated EOF (REOF are used to reveal dominant spatial structures of precipitation anomaly and Mann-Kendall testing method to determine the temporal locations of abrupt changes during the analyzed time span. We find that the first spatial mode of the spring precipitation of the South China has a domain uniform structure; the second is dominated by a spatial dipole; and the third contains six variability centers. 1980s was the decade of the largest amount of precipitation while 1960s the decade of the smallest amount of precipitation. The spring precipitation also appeared to have a decreasing trend since 2000. We also find that spring precipitation of the South China has experienced a few abrupt changes: sudden increment at 1964, sudden decrement at 2002, and sudden increment at 1995. In addition to these abrupt changes, the precipitation could also be characterized by variability of multiple temporal scales, with dominant periodicities of 4 years, 8 years, and 14 years. The South China spring precipitation is also closely tied to the atmospheric circulations: when Aleutian Low strengthens, westerly weakens, and the center of the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts southeastward in the early spring; and the South China precipitation tends to be abundant (positive anomaly. In contrast, when Ural ridge strengthens, the southern branch of the East Asian trough weakens and the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northwestward in the early spring, the South China precipitation tends to be reduced (negative anomaly.

Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

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M. Romem

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

Small-scale gravity waves in ER-2 MMS/MTP wind and temperature measurements during CRYSTAL-FACE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Wang

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs at the aircraft's flight level (typically ~20 km altitude. For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of ~5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, ~20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus cloud models.

Equalizing effects of the wind energy production in Northern Europe determined from reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giebel, Gregor

2000-01-01

The wind energy resource of Northern Europe is spread out over a geographically large area. This helps the utilities to integrate wind energy into their grids, since the generation is less variable, when it is combined from a larger area. The analysis wasdone based on 34 years of Reanalysis data...

Synoptic conditions and hazards in coastal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Surkova, Galina; Arkhipkin, Victor; Kislov, Alexsandr

2013-04-01

This work is an approach to the methodology of prediction of hazards in the coastal zone. For the past 60 years, according to the observations and reanalysis, meteorological conditions are rough in connection with the storm waves and strong winds resulting in catastrophic damage in the coastal zone of the Black and Caspian Seas. Forecast of similar events is taken from CMIP3 modeled for the future climate 2046-2065 by general global atmosphere and ocean circulation model MPI-ECHAM5. The research was conducted for the three types of calendar data samples: 1) storm wave and surge from observations (1948-2012), 2) storm simulations with wave height of 4 m and more (1948-2010), and 3) prognostic climate scenarios for 2046-2065. In the first sample especially rare events were chosen, accompanied by a large damage in the coastal zone. Second sample of cases was derived from modeling of SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). The third sample was derived from projections of cases from group 1 in the MPI-ECHAM5 climate forecasts for 2046-2065. For each sample the data of large-scale fields of surface pressure, height 500 hPa isobaric surfaces, 700gPa (Reanalysis NCEP / NCAR) was analyzed. On the basis of statistical techniques (decomposition of fields in the natural orthogonal functions (EOF) and cluster analysis) the synoptic situations associated with these events were classified. Centroids of pressure fields for dominated cases show that there are two basic types of synoptic situations in case of storm waves for the Black Sea. In the first case main role play the Mediterranean cyclones located in the east of the Mediterranean Sea, they are spread over the Black Sea, and often form a local center of low pressure. Their movement is blocked by the high pressure over the European Russia and Eastern Europe. If the center of the cyclone is over Asia and the southern part of the Black Sea, the weather is dominated by the north-eastern, eastern, south-easterly winds. In some cases

Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

1988-04-01

The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Toreti, A.; Xoplaki, E.; Maraun, D.; Kuglitsch, F. G.; Wanner, H.; Luterbacher, J.

2010-05-01

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October-March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950-2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Toreti

2010-05-01

Full Text Available We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series. Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous

Long-term global distribution of earth's shortwave radiation budget at the top of atmosphere

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N. Hatzianastassiou

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The mean monthly shortwave (SW radiation budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA was computed on 2.5° longitude-latitude resolution for the 14-year period from 1984 to 1997, using a radiative transfer model with long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2 supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR Global Reanalysis project, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS. The model radiative fluxes at TOA were validated against Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE S4 scanner satellite data (1985–1989. The model is able to predict the seasonal and geographical variation of SW TOA fluxes. On a mean annual and global basis, the model is in very good agreement with ERBE, overestimating the outgoing SW radiation at TOA (OSR by 0.93 Wm-2 (or by 0.92%, within the ERBE uncertainties. At pixel level, the OSR differences between model and ERBE are mostly within ±10 Wm-2, with ±5 Wm-2 over extended regions, while there exist some geographic areas with differences of up to 40 Wm-2, associated with uncertainties in cloud properties and surface albedo. The 14-year average model results give a planetary albedo equal to 29.6% and a TOA OSR flux of 101.2 Wm-2. A significant linearly decreasing trend in OSR and planetary albedo was found, equal to 2.3 Wm-2 and 0.6% (in absolute values, respectively, over the 14-year period (from January 1984 to December 1997, indicating an increasing solar planetary warming. This planetary SW radiative heating occurs in the tropical and sub-tropical areas (20° S–20° N, with clouds being the most likely cause. The computed global mean OSR anomaly ranges within ±4 Wm-2, with signals from El Niño and La Niña events or Pinatubo eruption, whereas significant negative OSR anomalies, starting from year 1992, are also

ENSO events are induced by the Global Atmosphere Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri

2014-05-01

The large-scale anomalies in the planetary fields of the principal hydro-meteorological characteristics were found to appear prior the beginning and during the main phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies were interpreted as manifestation of the interannual Global Atmosphere Oscillation (GAO) in dynamics of the modern climatic system. The key feature of the GAO baric structure is a large-scale positive anomaly in tropical area (30N-30S, 50W-170E) surrounded by negative anomaly bending its outer boundaries. Eventually, such reconstruction of the atmospheric pressure field over tropical zone as a consequence of the GAO leads to Walker circulation cell reversal which is immediately followed by the next El Niño process starting. Spatio-temporal structure of the anomalous hydro-meteorological fields developing under impact of the GAO was analyzed using the monthly-mean atmospheric pressure data at sea level (HadSLP2) and near-surface temperature (CRUTEM4) prepared by GB Met Office Hadley Centre for period of 1948-2012, also we used wind data from US NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the same period. Due to the presence of feed-forwards and feedbacks in the climate dynamics, the large-scale anomalies of characteristics appearing after the GAO cause their back effect on the system of interaction of the ocean-atmosphere-land. This is the secondary impact which can be implemented either by direct exchange of properties between the adjacent areas (this is seen most explicitly in the Indo-Pacific Region), or owing to teleconnections between the concrete climatic subsystems in different parts of the Earth. It is apparently that the secondary, or indirect, GAO impact spreading through the system of general atmospheric circulation has a certain phase shift in different areas, which depends first on the distance from the respective climatic anomalies, in particular, from the most intensive of them, appearing in the equatorial

Complementizer Agreement in Modern Varieties of West Germanic: A Model of Reanalysis and Renewal

Science.gov (United States)

Bousquette, Joshua

2013-01-01

This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of Complementizer Agreement (C-agr) in modern dialects of West Germanic from a diachronic perspective, attributing the rise and development of C-agr to the initiation and progression of a Linguistic Cycle specific to C-agr. Approached as a historical process of reanalysis and compensatory renewal…

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Mengjiao; Feng, Jinqin; Li, Zhanqing; Sun, Ruiyu; Hou, Yu-Tai; Zhu, Yuejian; Wan, Bingcheng; Guo, Jianping; Cribb, Maureen

2017-11-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 %) and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively) from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m-2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and invigorate warm-base mixed

Potential influences of neglecting aerosol effects on the NCEP GFS precipitation forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Jiang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs have been widely recognized as a factor affecting precipitation. However, they have not been considered in the operational National Centers for Environmental Predictions Global Forecast System model. We evaluated the potential impact of neglecting ACI on the operational rainfall forecast using ground-based and satellite observations and model reanalysis. The Climate Prediction Center unified gauge-based precipitation analysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 aerosol reanalysis were used to evaluate the forecast in three countries for the year 2015. The overestimation of light rain (47.84 % and underestimation of heavier rain (31.83, 52.94, and 65.74 % for moderate rain, heavy rain, and very heavy rain, respectively from the model are qualitatively consistent with the potential errors arising from not accounting for ACI, although other factors cannot be totally ruled out. The standard deviation of the forecast bias was significantly correlated with aerosol optical depth in Australia, the US, and China. To gain further insight, we chose the province of Fujian in China to pursue a more insightful investigation using a suite of variables from gauge-based observations of precipitation, visibility, water vapor, convective available potential energy (CAPE, and satellite datasets. Similar forecast biases were found: over-forecasted light rain and under-forecasted heavy rain. Long-term analyses revealed an increasing trend in heavy rain in summer and a decreasing trend in light rain in other seasons, accompanied by a decreasing trend in visibility, no trend in water vapor, and a slight increasing trend in summertime CAPE. More aerosols decreased cloud effective radii for cases where the liquid water path was greater than 100 g m−2. All findings are consistent with the effects of ACI, i.e., where aerosols inhibit the development of shallow liquid clouds and

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) temperature increments

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-09-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in the reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the lack of dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (>0.5), low correlation and high negative correlation (Forecast (ECMWF) suggest that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity and downward (upward) airflow. These findings are associated with the interaction between dust-forced heating/cooling and atmospheric circulation. This paper contributes to a better understanding of dust radiative processes missed in the model.

Climatologia de ciclones explosivos para a área ciclogenética da América do Sul Climatology of explosive cyclones over cyclogenetic area of South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Pires Bitencourt

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Ciclones extratropicais são classificados como "explosivos" quando a pressão central decresce 1 hPa h-1 em 24 h. Estes sistemas são importantes sobre a América do Sul devido aos fortes impactos sócio-econômicos. Esse artigo apresenta uma climatologia dos ciclones explosivos para a área ciclogenética da América do Sul, usando dados da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR de 1957 a 2010. A taxa de aprofundamento de um ciclone individual foi analisada com respeito a sua latitude média. Analisou-se vários aspectos, como frequência, gênese, trajetória e aprofundamento em 6 h. Além disso, a profundidade, pressão central e raio dos ciclones explosivos foram comparadas com a climatologia de ciclones não explosivos. O campo de vento horizontal é comparado através de um sistema de coordenada móvel, no qual o centro do ciclone é posicionado no centro de um domínio de 30° lat x 30° lon. Constatou-se que os ciclones explosivos não ocorrem ao norte de 27 °S e, em geral, iniciam sobre o oceano. Também observou-se que, em média, os ciclones explosivos são 5,1 hPa mais profundos, possuem raio 0,41ºlat. maior e pressão central de 15,5 hPa menor, em relação aos ciclones não explosivos. Além disso, os ciclones explosivos geram ventos médios de até 60 % mais intensos que os demais ciclones.Extratropical cyclones are defined as "explosive" when their deepening rate is maintained at 1 hPa h-1 during a 24-h period. Those systems are important over the South American continent due to their severe socio-economic impacts. This study presents a climatology of explosive cyclones over the cyclogenetic area of South America using NCEP-NCAR re-analysis data from 1957 to 2010. The deepening rate of an individual cyclone was classified with respect to their average latitude. Six-hourly storm attributes such as frequency, genesis, tracks, and deepening rates were analyzed. As a second step, their depth, central pressure, and radius were meaningfully

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis increments

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-04-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data - the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely-sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (> 0.5), low correlation, and high negative correlation (Forecast(ECMWF) suggests that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity, and downward (upward) airflow. These facts indicate an interaction between dust-forced heating /cooling and atmospheric circulation. The April correlation results are supported by the analysis of vertical distribution of dust concentration, derived from the 24-hour dust prediction system at Tel Aviv University (website: http://earth.nasa.proj.ac.il/dust/current/). For other months the analysis is more complicated because of the essential increasing of humidity along with the northward progress of the ITCZ and the significant impact on the increments.

Lipid Treatment Assessment Project (L-TAP Study : a survey in 13 cities in Indonesia to evaluate the percentages of dyslipidemic patients achieving NCEP LDL-C target goals after treatment

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Rinambaan W.M. Kaligis

2001-06-01

Full Text Available Clinical trials have demonstrated significant benefit from low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In the US, it is well recognized that a substantial number of hypercholesterolemic patients were not treated to the LDL-C goals recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP guidelines. In 1996, the Indonesian Heart Association (PERKI has issued guidelines recommending goals for screening and lipid treatment in Indonesia adopted from NCEP guidelines; however, the frequency of undertreatment in Indonesia is not known. The objective of this study was to determine the percentage of patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy who reached LDL-C goals as defined by NCEP guidelines in routine clinical practice. This was a cross-sectional survey targeted physicians who regularly treated dyslipidemic patients in 13 cities in Indonesia. Participating doctors were asked on their awareness of NCEP guidelines and to complete the case record form (CRF of the enrolled patients. One-hundred and eighty-eight (188 out of four hundreds (400 physicians who were invited, have participated in this study. Among the evaluable 1420 CRF, 1082 patients received statins, 301 used fibrates, 14 patients used combination drugs, and 23 others received non-drug treatments only. Success rates on achieving target LDL-C in low-risk, high-risk, and CHD groups were 73.0 %, 43.6 %, and 14.8 %, respectively. Overall success rate in patients using statins was 55.1 %, while in low-risk group, high-risk group, and CHD patients, the success rates with statin were 77.8%, 50.1%, and 18.6 %, respectively. Atorvastatin showed the highest success rate (77.4 % if compared to other statins. Only 14 % of physicians were knowledgeable about the NCEP goals. Conclusion : A large number of dyslipidemic patients who were on lipid-lowering therapy were not achieving the recommended LDL-C target

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

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P. K. Patra

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

OpenAIRE

A. Storto; S. Masina

2016-01-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysi...

Evaluation of person-level heterogeneity of treatment effects in published multiperson N-of-1 studies: systematic review and reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Raman, Gowri; Balk, Ethan M; Lai, Lana; Shi, Jennifer; Chan, Jeffrey; Lutz, Jennifer S; Dubois, Robert W; Kravitz, Richard L; Kent, David M

2018-05-26

Individual patients with the same condition may respond differently to similar treatments. Our aim is to summarise the reporting of person-level heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) in multiperson N-of-1 studies and to examine the evidence for person-level HTE through reanalysis. Systematic review and reanalysis of multiperson N-of-1 studies. Medline, Cochrane Controlled Trials, EMBASE, Web of Science and review of references through August 2017 for N-of-1 studies published in English. N-of-1 studies of pharmacological interventions with at least two subjects. Citation screening and data extractions were performed in duplicate. We performed statistical reanalysis testing for person-level HTE on all studies presenting person-level data. We identified 62 multiperson N-of-1 studies with at least two subjects. Statistical tests examining HTE were described in only 13 (21%), of which only two (3%) tested person-level HTE. Only 25 studies (40%) provided person-level data sufficient to reanalyse person-level HTE. Reanalysis using a fixed effect linear model identified statistically significant person-level HTE in 8 of the 13 studies (62%) reporting person-level treatment effects and in 8 of the 14 studies (57%) reporting person-level outcomes. Our analysis suggests that person-level HTE is common and often substantial. Reviewed studies had incomplete information on person-level treatment effects and their variation. Improved assessment and reporting of person-level treatment effects in multiperson N-of-1 studies are needed. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Heat Stress in a Climate Setting: A Framework for Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Huynh, Jonathan

The proliferation of reanalysis models for the atmosphere in recent decades has allowed researchers to study Earth's past climate in great detail. While much work has gone into understanding key climate indicators such as surface temperature and precipitation trends, there have been few studies dealing with heat stress. As climate change grows increasingly exigent, it is becoming vitally important to understand the thermal impacts on biological systems. This study analyzed data from five reanalysis models (20CRv2, NARR, NNRA 1, NCEP DOE 2, and ERA-I) and found agreement in average surface temperature increases of 0.2-0.6°C per decade across the U.S. west coast and east coast since 1979. These trends were consistent with previous studies. Less agreement was found for the central U.S. The Temperature Humidity Index and the Heat Index were found to generally follow the temperature trends. An analysis of the role of moisture indicated that the effect of specific humidity on heat stress is dependent on climatology. Trends of heat stress over arid regions such as the desert southwest were found to be much more influenced by temperature trends than by moisture trends. In contrast, moisture seemed to play a stronger role in the more humid southeast. There appeared to be a more equal effect of temperature and moisture on heat stress in the northeast and Great Lake states. Perhaps equally as important, the study provides a framework to reduce computational time but allows for more rigorous statistical methods that are not available in the typical suite of software and programming languages to analyze climate data. Functionality was developed to infer daily extrema from six-hourly reanalysis data. A shapefile was used to aggregate the data according to prescribed geographic boundaries and reduce the load of data for statistical analysis. Time series decomposition was performed on the aggregated daily data to determine linear trends which were then mapped out to visualize

Spatial and temporal variation of surface waves in shallow waters along the eastern Arabian Sea.

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Anoop, T.R.; SanilKumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.

We studied the spatial and temporal variation of surface waves along the eastern Arabian Sea during 2011 and 2012. Measured directional wave data at two shallow water locations and re-analysis datasets (ERA-Interim) at 0.751 intervals at four...

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

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Ibrahima Diouf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM, driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-09-25

The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

The Climate Response to Explosive Volcanism in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Emile-Geay, J.; Erb, M. P.; Hakim, G. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Toohey, M.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

Explosive volcanism substantially affects the climate system via the direct effect of radiative forcing anomalies and ensuing influences on, and feedback to, major modes of ocean-atmosphere variability. Eruptions therefore offer unparalleled natural experiments with which to study the climate response to stratospheric aerosol loading. While the instrumental record provides a few, modest examples of such eruptions, the Common Era provides a much larger sample with more dramatic instances [Sigl et al, Nature, 2015]. Here we leverage the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR, Hakim et al [JGR-Atm, 2016]), to probe the climate response to explosive volcanism. LMR fuses information from general circulation models and a recent multiproxy compilation [PAGES 2k Consortium, Sci Data, 2017] to depict Common Era climate: surface temperature, 500mb geopotential height, precipitation and drought indices are reconstructed at annual resolution over the past 2,000 years, with error estimates. Using forcing estimates from Toohey & Sigl [ESDD, 2017], the reconstructions shows a 0.2K cooling following the 20 largest eruptions since 750, with maximum impacts over Northern Eurasia and western North America. Comparison to the N-TREND temperature reconstruction [Anchukaitis et al, QSR 2017], which uses a completely independent methodology, shows remarkable agreement in the magnitude and spatial patterns. Surprisingly, reconstructed temperature recovers slowly (10-15y) after major eruptions, a result at odds with conventional wisdom [Robock, Rev. Geophys. 2000] but consistent with modeling results [Pausata et al, PNAS, 2015], and suggestive of an active role for ocean dynamics. Preliminary results show a marginally significant, El Niño-like sea-surface temperature response immediately after the eruption, accompanied by a significant weakening of the Walker circulation and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. A comparison to PMIP3 simulations shows greater magnitudes of

Investigating smoke's influence on primary production throughout the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Flanner, M. G.; Mahowald, N. M.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Tosca, M. G.

2007-12-01

Smoke from annual burning in the Amazon causes large reduction in surface insolation and increases the diffuse fraction of photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR). These effects have competing influence on gross primary production (GPP). Recent studies indicate that the sign of net influence depends on aerosol optical depth, but the magnitude of smoke's effect on continental-scale carbon cycling is very poorly constrained and may constitute an important term of fire's net impact on carbon storage. To investigate widespread effects of Amazon smoke on surface radiation properties, we apply a version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model with prognostic aerosol transport, driven with re-analysis winds. Carbon aerosol emissions are derived from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We use AERONET observations to identify model biases in aerosol optical depth, single-scatter albedo, and surface radiative forcing, and prescribe new aerosol optical properties based on field observations to improve model agreement with AERONET data. Finally, we quantify a potential range of smoke-induced change in large-scale GPP based on: 1) ground measurements of GPP in the Amazon as a function of aerosol optical depth and diffuse fraction of PAR, and 2) empirical functions of ecosystem-scale photosynthesis rates currently employed in models such as the Community Land Model (CLM).

High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany

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M. G. Donat

2011-10-01

Full Text Available A refined model for the calculation of storm losses is presented, making use of high-resolution insurance loss records for Germany and allowing loss estimates on a spatial level of administrative districts and for single storm events. Storm losses are calculated on the basis of wind speeds from both ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalyses. The loss model reproduces the spatial distribution of observed losses well by taking specific regional loss characteristics into account. This also permits high-accuracy estimates of total cumulated losses, though slightly underestimating the country-wide loss sums for storm "Kyrill", the most severe event in the insurance loss records from 1997 to 2007. A larger deviation, which is assigned to the relatively coarse resolution of the NCEP reanalysis, is only found for one specific rather small-scale event, not adequately captured by this dataset.

The loss model is subsequently applied to the complete reanalysis period to extend the storm event catalogue to cover years when no systematic insurance records are available. This allows the consideration of loss-intensive storm events back to 1948, enlarging the event catalogue to cover the recent 60+ years, and to investigate the statistical characteristics of severe storm loss events in Germany based on a larger sample than provided by the insurance records only. Extreme value analysis is applied to the loss data to estimate the return periods of loss-intensive storms, yielding a return period for storm "Kyrill", for example, of approximately 15 to 21 years.

The role of sea–land air thermal difference, shape of the coastline and sea surface temperature in the nocturnal offshore convection

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Jordi Mazón

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Nocturnal precipitation cells and lines occur near the coastline in the whole Mediterranean basin in all seasons. The precipitation events are mainly located in areas where coastal mountain ranges and rivers enhance convergence though the interaction of nocturnal mesoscale and local flows (land breeze, katabatic and drainages winds with prevailing synoptic wind or with other mesoscale and local flows. The methodology used here to study this phenomenon consists of three stages. First, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM radar satellite database is used to detect nocturnal precipitation near the coastline, from 18 to 09 UTC. An event is included in the study if the 3 hours accumulated precipitation detected by TRMM is stationary near the coast, or has moved slightly onshore or offshore, and has lasted no more than six consecutive hours. Second, the NCEP reanalysis database is used to describe the synoptic conditions and to discard precipitation associated with synoptic events (large low pressure areas, dynamic polar fronts, or troughs, for example. In the final step by using the version 3 of the Weather Research Forecast model, we simulate and analyse some of the selected events to determine the role of the land–sea temperature differences, the curvature of the coastline and the sea surface temperature.The simulations confirm that the nocturnal precipitation studied in the Mediterranean basin near the coastline is formed from the interaction between relatively warm and wet sea-air with the cold air mass from drainage winds, as well as from the convergence of several drainage winds offshore. The mechanism is the same that is used to explain nocturnal precipitation in tropical areas.

Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

2008-01-01

There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

Soil moisture variations in remotely sensed and reanalysis datasets during weak monsoon conditions over central India and central Myanmar

Science.gov (United States)

Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

2017-07-01

Variation of soil moisture during active and weak phases of summer monsoon JJAS (June, July, August, and September) is very important for sustenance of the crop and subsequent crop yield. As in situ observations of soil moisture are few or not available, researchers use data derived from remote sensing satellites or global reanalysis. This study documents the intercomparison of soil moisture from remotely sensed and reanalyses during dry spells within monsoon seasons in central India and central Myanmar. Soil moisture data from the European Space Agency (ESA)—Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has been treated as observed data and was compared against soil moisture data from the ECMWF reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) and the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for the period of 2002-2011. The ESA soil moisture correlates rather well with observed gridded rainfall. The ESA data indicates that soil moisture increases over India from west to east and from north to south during monsoon season. The ERA-I overestimates the soil moisture over India, while the CFSR soil moisture agrees well with the remotely sensed observation (ESA). Over Myanmar, both the reanalysis overestimate soil moisture values and the ERA-I soil moisture does not show much variability from year to year. Day-to-day variations of soil moisture in central India and central Myanmar during weak monsoon conditions indicate that, because of the rainfall deficiency, the observed (ESA) and the CFSR soil moisture values are reduced up to 0.1 m3/m3 compared to climatological values of more than 0.35 m3/m3. This reduction is not seen in the ERA-I data. Therefore, soil moisture from the CFSR is closer to the ESA observed soil moisture than that from the ERA-I during weak phases of monsoon in the study region.

NCEP Global Data Assimilation System GDAS

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized analysis (2x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2016-01-01

This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

Simulated impacts of land cover change on summer climate in the Tibetan Plateau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qian; Xue Yongkang

2010-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a key region of land-atmosphere interactions with severe eco-environment degradation. This study uses an atmospheric general circulation model, NCEP GCM/SSiB, to present the major TP summer climate features for six selected ENSO years and preliminarily assess the possible impact of land cover change on the summer circulation over the TP. Compared to Reanalysis II data, the GCM using satellite derived vegetation properties generally reproduces the main 6-year-mean TP summer circulation features despite some discrepancies in intensity and geographic locations of some climate features. Two existing vegetation maps with very different land cover conditions over the TP, one with bare ground and one with vegetation cover, derived from satellite derived data, are tested and produce clearer climate signals due to land cover change. It shows that land cover change from vegetated land to bare ground decreases the radiation absorbed by the surface and results in weaker surface thermal effects, which lead to lower atmospheric temperature, as well as weaker vertical ascending motion, low-layer cyclonic, upper level anticyclonic, and summer monsoon circulation. These changes in circulation cause a decrease in the precipitation in the southeastern TP.

Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble

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Moises Angeles-Malaspina

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Significant accelerated warming of the Sea Surface Temperature of 0.15°C per decade (1982–2012 was recently detected, which motivated the research for the present consequences and future projections on the heat index and heat waves in the intra-Americas region. Present records every six hours are retrieved from NCEP reanalysis (1948–2015 to calculate heat waves changes. Heat index intensification has been detected in the region since 1998 and driven by surface pressure changes, sinking air enhancement, and warm/weaker cold advection. This regional warmer atmosphere leads to heat waves intensification with changes in both frequency and maximum amplitude distribution. Future projections using a multimodel ensemble mean for five global circulation models were used to project heat waves in the future under two scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Massive heat waves events were projected at the end of the 21st century, particularly in the RCP8.5 scenario. Consequently, the regional climate change in the current time and in the future will require special attention to mitigate the more intense and frequent heat waves impacts on human health, countries’ economies, and energy demands in the IAR.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Polarizing a stored proton beam by spin flip? - A high statistic reanalysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oellers, Dieter

2011-01-01

Prompted by recent, conflicting calculations, we have carried out a measurement of the spin flip cross section in low-energy electron-proton scattering. The experiment uses the cooling electron beam at COSY as an electron target. A reanalysis of the data leeds to a reduced statistical errors resulting in a factor of 4 reduced upper limit for the spin flip cross section. The measured cross sections are too small for making spin flip a viable tool in polarizing a stored beam.

Hydroclimatological Processes in the Central American Dry Corridor

Science.gov (United States)

Hidalgo, H. G.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.; Amador, J. A.; Alfaro, E. J.; Mora, G.

2015-12-01

This work studies the hydroclimatological variability and the climatic precursors of drought in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC), a subregion located in the Pacific coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. Droughts are frequent in the CADC, which is featured by a higher climatological aridity compared to the highlands and Caribbean coast of Central America. The CADC region presents large social vulnerability to hydroclimatological impacts originated from dry conditions, as there is a large part of population that depends on subsistance agriculture. The influence of large-scale climatic precursors such as ENSO, the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), low frequency signals from the Pacific and Caribbean and some intra-seasonal signals such as the MJO are evaluated. Previous work by the authors identified a connection between the CLLJ and CADC precipitation. This connection is more complex than a simple rain-shadow effect, and instead it was suggested that convection at the exit of the jet in the Costa-Rica and Nicaragua Caribbean coasts and consequent subsidence in the Pacific could be playing a role in this connection. During summer, when the CLLJ is stronger than normal, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (located mainly in the Pacific) displaces to a more southern position, and vice-versa, suggesting a connection between these two processes that has not been fully explained yet. The role of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool also needs more research. All this is important, as it suggest a working hypothesis that during summer, the effect of the Caribbean wind strength may be responsible for the dry climate of the CADC. Another previous analysis by the authors was based on downscaled precipitation and temperature from GCMs and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The data was later used in a hydrological model. Results showed a negative trend in reanalysis' runoff for 1980-2012 in San José (Costa Rica) and Tegucigalpa (Honduras). This highly significant drying trend

Assessment of Patient-Specific Surgery Effect Based on Weighted Estimation and Propensity Scoring in the Re-Analysis of the Sciatica Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Bart J. A.; Jacobs, Wilco C. H.; Brand, Ronald; Peul, Wilco C.

2014-01-01

We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control) arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery. PMID:25353633

Characterizing Drought and Flood Events over the Yangtze River Basin Using the HUST-Grace2016 Solution and Ancillary Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Zhou

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Accurate terrestrial water storage (TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resources over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new temporal gravity field model, HUST-Grace2016 (Huazhong University of Science and Technology, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the drought and flood events over the YRB. The HUST-Grace2016-derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR (Center for Space Research mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB (PCRaster Global Water Balance hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the YRB and its sub-basins. The comparison between GRACE-derived TWS variations and the MODIS-derived (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer inundated area variations is then conducted. The analysis demonstrates that the terrestrial reflectance data can provide an alternative way of cross-comparing and validating TWS information in Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and 0.70, respectively. In contrast, the correlation is only 0.10 for Tai Lake, indicating the limitation of cross-comparison between MODIS and GRACE data. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research vertical velocity data is incorporated with GRACE TWS in the exploration of the climate-induced hydrological activities. The good agreement between non-seasonal NCEP/NCAR vertical velocities and non-seasonal GRACE TWSs is found in flood years (2005, 2010, 2012 and 2016 and drought years (2006, 2011 and 2013. The evidence shown in this study may contribute to the

Investigating a solar influence on cloud cover using the North American Regional Reanalysis data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krahenbuhl Daniel Scott

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The controversial connection between cosmic rays, solar activity, and cloud cover is investigated using a climatological reconstructed reanalysis product: the North American Regional Reanalysis which provides high-resolution, low, mid-level, high, and total cloud cover data over a Lambert conformal conic projection permitting land/ocean discrimination. Pearson’s product-moment regional correlations were obtained between monthly cloud cover data and solar variability indicators, cosmic ray neutron monitors, several climatological indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, and between cloud layers. Regions of the mid-latitude oceans exhibited a positive correlation with cosmic ray flux. Additionally, this maritime low cloud cover exhibits the only failed correlation significance with other altitudes. The cross correlation reveals that cloud cover is positively correlated everywhere but for ocean low cloud cover, supporting the unique response of the marine layer. The results of this investigation suggest that with the assumption that solar forcing does impact cloud cover, measurements of solar activity exhibits a slightly higher correlation than GCRs. The only instance where GCRs exhibit a positive regional correlation with cloud cover is for maritime low clouds. The AMO exerts the greatest control of cloud cover in the NARR domain.

Re-analysis of fatigue data for welded joints using the notch stress approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Mikkel Melters; Mouritsen, Ole Ø.; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

2010-01-01

Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently......-welded joints agree quite well with the FAT 225 curve; however a reduction to FAT 200 is suggested in order to achieve approximately the same safety as observed in the nominal stress approach....

Evaluation of a bias correction method applied to downscaled precipitation and temperature reanalysis for the Rhine basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Terink, W.; Hurkmans, R.T.W.L.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2010-01-01

In many climate impact studies hydrological models are forced with meteorological data without an attempt to assess the quality of these data. The objective of this study was to compare downscaled ERA15 (ECMWF-reanalysis data) precipitation and temperature with observed precipitation and temperature

Assessment of patient-specific surgery effect based on weighted estimation and propensity scoring in the re-analysis of the sciatica trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bart J A Mertens

Full Text Available We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery.

Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

Science.gov (United States)

Colarco, Peter R.; Gassó, Santiago; Ahn, Changwoo; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Torres, Omar

2017-11-01

We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV) is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

NCEP Real-time Marine Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly surface marine data gathered by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The basic observational data are edited, using a "trimming" procedure...