WorldWideScience

Sample records for ncar-ncep reanalysis surface

  1. Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA Using Satellite and Surface Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaotong Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface (Rs is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55 using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from −2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 were obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

  2. Toward a 35-years North American Precipitation and Surface Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasset, N.; Fortin, V.

    2017-12-01

    In support of the International Watersheds Initiative (IWI) of the International Joint Commission (IJC), a 35-years precipitation and surface reanalysis covering North America at a 3-hours and 15-km resolution is currently being developed at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). A deterministic reforecast / dynamical downscaling approach is followed where a global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used as initial condition of the Global Environmental Multi-scale model (GEM). Moreover, the latter is coupled with precipitation and surface data assimilation systems, i.e. the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) and the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). While optimized to be more computationally efficient in the context of a reforecast experiment, all systems used are closely related to model versions and configurations currently run operationally at CMC, meaning they have undergone a strict and thorough validation procedure.As a proof of concept and in order to identify the optimal set-up before achieving the 35-years reanalysis, several configurations of the approach are evaluated for the years 2010-2014 using both standard CMC validation methodology as well as more dedicated scores such as comparison against the currently available products (North American Regional Reanalysis, MERRA-Land and the newly released ERA5 reanalysis). A special attention is dedicated to the evaluation of analysed variables, i.e. precipitation, snow depth, surface/ground temperature and moisture over the whole domain of interest. Results from these preliminary samples are very encouraging and the optimal set-up is identified. The coupled approach, i.e. GEM+CaPA/CaLDAS, always shows clear improvements over classical reforecast and dynamical downscaling where surface observations are present. Furthermore, results are inline or better than currently available products and the reference CMC operational approach that was operated from 2012 to 2016 (GEM 3.3, 10-km resolution). This

  3. Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Long

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon, aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979–2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979–1998 and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999–2014. There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25 have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from

  4. Monitoring Multidecadal satellite earth observation of soil moisture products through land surface reanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.; Balsamo, G.; Sabatar, J; de Rosnay, P.; Isaksen, I; Brocca, L; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.

    2013-01-01

    Soil moisture from ERA-Land, a revised version of the land surface components of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), is used to monitor at a global scale the consistency of a new microwave based multi-satellite surface soil moisture date set

  5. Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

    2018-02-01

    Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

  6. An integrated evaluation of land surface energy fluxes over China in seven reanalysis/modeling products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongyu; Fu, Congbin; Guo, Weidong

    2017-08-01

    An integrated evaluation of monthly mean land surface energy fluxes over China in seven reanalysis and land model products during the period 1979-2015 is conducted. Observations from seven field sites are used to evaluate these flux products, including four reanalysis data sets and three produced by off-line land surface models. In general, the expected seasonal variations and spatial patterns in major climatic regimes are well reproduced by all reanalysis and modeling products. However, large differences among the four reanalysis products are found, while the three off-line land surface modeling products correlate well with each other. Looking at the Bowen ratio, it is found that the off-line land surface models convert a larger fraction of surface available energy into sensible heat flux compared to the reanalysis products in all climatic regimes. There are three centers of high interannual variability in sensible heat located in West China, Northeast China, and the eastern Inner Mongolia, respectively. In addition, the sensible heat flux agrees better with observations at grassland sites than at forest sites, while the latent heat flux and net radiation are significantly overestimated at forest sites in all the flux products. Besides, mean square errors of the fluxes are decomposed into biases, correlations, and differences in standard deviation. Finally, based on a ranking system adopted to quantitatively evaluate the performance of each data set, it is found that the surface energy fluxes in ERA-Interim and JRA-25 agree well with observations and the ensemble mean of all these products remains reasonably realistic as well.

  7. ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the surface, and...

  8. ISLSCP II Reanalysis Near-Surface Meteorology Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set for the ISLSCP Initiative II data collection provides near surface meteorological variables, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum at the...

  9. Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, Pat; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Marie, B.; Cappelaere, B.; Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Noubellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled actual evapotranspiration (AET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a model driven by dynamic canopy AET was combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the NOAH Land Surface Model (GNOAH) wet canopy and soil AET for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against AET from the GNOAH model and dynamic model using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance are at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites is poor, but better than individual models. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a dynamic vegetation component with land surface model estimates, improved model parameterization, and reduction of multiplicative effects of uncertain data.

  10. Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfaye, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

  11. Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

  12. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard; Liu, Chunlei

    2017-04-01

    The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; Roberts et al., 2016). A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA) adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally (Liu et al., 2015). Land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach using relations at each grid point with the consideration of snowmelt to improve regional realism. The energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis input data and products. Zonal multiannual mean surface flux uncertainty is estimated to be less than 5 Wm-2 but much larger uncertainty is likely for regional monthly values. The meridional energy transport is calculated using the net surface heat fluxes estimated in this study and the result shows better agreement with observations in Atlantic than before. The derived turbulent fluxes (difference between the net heat flux and the CERES EBAF radiative flux at surface) also have good agreement with those from OAFLUX dataset and buoy observations. Decadal changes in the global energy budget and the hemisphere energy imbalances are quantified and present day cross-equator heat transports is re-evaluated as 0.22±0.15 PW southward by the atmosphere and 0.32±0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks (Roemmich et al., 2006) . Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res., Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD

  13. Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Camilla; Alpfjord, Heléne; Robertson, Lennart; Karlsson, Per Erik; Engardt, Magnuz

    2017-11-01

    We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990-2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using retrospective variational data analysis. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance over the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyses, we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the distribution of the near-surface O3 concentrations, focusing on the linear trend over the 24-year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is reflected in observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the CTM we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three factors: change in hemispheric background concentrations, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three factors, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by European O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modeled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

  14. Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

    KAUST Repository

    Perdigão, João Carlos

    2016-01-26

    © 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results show that reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm-2 (40Wm-2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964-1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

  15. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  16. NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized reanalysis (4x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

  17. High-resolution land surface fluxes from satellite and reanalysis data (HOLAPS v1.0): evaluation and uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loew, Alexander; Peng, Jian; Borsche, Michael

    2016-07-01

    Surface water and energy fluxes are essential components of the Earth system. Surface latent heat fluxes provide major energy input to the atmosphere. Despite the importance of these fluxes, state-of-the-art data sets of surface energy and water fluxes largely differ. The present paper introduces a new framework for the estimation of surface energy and water fluxes at the land surface, which allows for temporally and spatially high-resolved flux estimates at the quasi-global scale (50° S, 50° N) (High resOlution Land Atmosphere Parameters from Space - HOLAPS v1.0). The framework makes use of existing long-term satellite and reanalysis data records and ensures internally consistent estimates of the surface radiation and water fluxes. The manuscript introduces the technical details of the developed framework and provides results of a comprehensive sensitivity and evaluation study. Overall the root mean square difference (RMSD) was found to be 51.2 (30.7) W m-2 for hourly (daily) latent heat flux, and 84 (38) W m-2 for sensible heat flux when compared against 48 FLUXNET stations worldwide. The largest uncertainties of latent heat flux and net radiation were found to result from uncertainties in the solar radiation flux obtained from satellite data products.

  18. Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Separation from Cross-Track Infrared Sounder Data with Atmospheric Reanalysis Data and ISSTES Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ze Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS is one of the most advanced hyperspectral instruments and has been used for various atmospheric applications such as atmospheric retrievals and weather forecast modeling. However, because of the specific design purpose of CrIS, little attention has been paid to retrieving land surface parameters from CrIS data. To take full advantage of the rich spectral information in CrIS data to improve the land surface retrievals, particularly the acquisition of a continuous Land Surface Emissivity (LSE spectrum, this paper attempts to simultaneously retrieve a continuous LSE spectrum and the Land Surface Temperature (LST from CrIS data with the atmospheric reanalysis data and the Iterative Spectrally Smooth Temperature and Emissivity Separation (ISSTES algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of the retrieved LSEs and LST is comparable with the current land products. The overall differences of the LST and LSE retrievals are approximately 1.3 K and 1.48%, respectively. However, the LSEs in our study can be provided as a continuum spectrum instead of the single-channel values in traditional products. The retrieved LST and LSEs now can be better used to further analyze the surface properties or improve the retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

  19. Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

  20. Validation of solar radiation surfaces from MODIS and reanalysis data over topographically complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd A. Schroeder; Robbie Hember; Nicholas C. Coops; Shunlin Liang

    2009-01-01

    The magnitude and distribution of incoming shortwave solar radiation (SW) has significant influence on the productive capacity of forest vegetation. Models that estimate forest productivity require accurate and spatially explicit radiation surfaces that resolve both long- and short-term temporal climatic patterns and that account for topographic variability of the land...

  1. Contributions to the geomagnetic secular variation from a reanalysis of core surface dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrois, O.; Gillet, N.; Aubert, J.

    2017-10-01

    We invert for motions at the surface of Earth's core under spatial and temporal constraints that depart from the mathematical smoothings usually employed to ensure spectral convergence of the flow solutions. Our spatial constraints are derived from geodynamo simulations. The model is advected in time using stochastic differential equations coherent with the occurrence of geomagnetic jerks. Together with a Kalman filter, these spatial and temporal constraints enable the estimation of core flows as a function of length and time-scales. From synthetic experiments, we find it crucial to account for subgrid errors to obtain an unbiased reconstruction. This is achieved through an augmented state approach. We show that a significant contribution from diffusion to the geomagnetic secular variation should be considered even on short periods, because diffusion is dynamically related to the rapidly changing flow below the core surface. Our method, applied to geophysical observations over the period 1950-2015, gives access to reasonable solutions in terms of misfit to the data. We highlight an important signature of diffusion in the Eastern equatorial area, where the eccentric westward gyre reaches low latitudes, in relation with important up/downwellings. Our results also confirm that the dipole decay, observed over the past decades, is primarily driven by advection processes. Our method allows us to provide probability densities for forecasts of the core flow and the secular variation.

  2. Surface wave climatology and its variability in the North Indian Ocean based on ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anoop, T.R.; Sanilkumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.; Johnson, G.

    -Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA-Interim) for the period 1979–2012 are analyzed. Annual average significant wave height (SWH) of the NIO ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m and the seasonal average is highest (3–3.5 m) during...

  3. Response Surface Methodology Using a Fullest Balanced Model: A Re-Analysis of a Dataset in theKorean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheem, Sungsue; Rheem, Insoo; Oh, Sejong

    2017-01-01

    Response surface methodology (RSM) is a useful set of statistical techniques for modeling and optimizing responses in research studies of food science. In the analysis of response surface data, a second-order polynomial regression model is usually used. However, sometimes we encounter situations where the fit of the second-order model is poor. If the model fitted to the data has a poor fit including a lack of fit, the modeling and optimization results might not be accurate. In such a case, using a fullest balanced model, which has no lack of fit, can fix such problem, enhancing the accuracy of the response surface modeling and optimization. This article presents how to develop and use such a model for the better modeling and optimizing of the response through an illustrative re-analysis of a dataset in Park et al. (2014) published in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources .

  4. Comment on Marden (2013): "reanalysis and experimental evidence indicate that the earliest trace fossil of a winged insect was a surface skimming neopteran".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, Jacob S; Knecht, Richard J; Engel, Michael S

    2013-07-01

    Marden's (2013) reanalysis of Knecht et al. (2011) suggesting that specimen SEMC-F97 is the result of the skimming behavior of a neopteran insect and, more importantly, fossil evidence of "… surface skimming as a precursor to the evolution of flight in insects" (Marden 2013) is found to be deficient on three fronts: (1) the principal specimen was never viewed firsthand which led to significant morphological misinterpretations; (2) poorly designed and executed neoichnological experiments led to incredulous results; and (3) the assumption that this specimen is fossil evidence supporting the surface skimming hypothesis of the origin of insect flight despite the fact that since its induction into the literature that hypothesis has been refuted based on significant paleontological, phylogenetic, genetic, and developmental evidence. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  5. Reanalysis and experimental evidence indicate that the earliest trace fossil of a winged insect was a surface-skimming neopteran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marden, James H

    2013-01-01

    A recent description and analysis of an imprint fossil from the Carboniferous concluded that it was made by a mayfly landing in sediment at the edge of water. Here, I reanalyze that trace fossil and supply experimental evidence regarding wing traces and behavior. The thorax of the trace maker lacked structures characteristic of mayflies, but closely matches a modern neopteran insect family (Taeniopterygidae, Plecoptera) little changed from Early Permian fossils. Edges of the folded wings of live Taeniopteryx leave marks on sediment closely matching marks in the trace fossil. Faint marks lateral to and beyond the reach of meso- and metathoracic legs match the location where wings of surface-skimming Taeniopteryx stoneflies lightly touch the sediment when these insects skim onto wet ground at shorelines. Dimensions of the thorax of the trace indicate relatively weak flight ability compared to fossils from the Early Permian, making doubtful the hypothesis that the trace maker was flight capable. Ultimately, this fossil best fits a scenario in which a neopteran insect skimmed across the surface of water, then folded its wings. Surface skimming as a precursor to the evolution of flight in insects is supported by this fossil evidence of skimming behavior in a Carboniferous insect. © 2012 The Author. Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  6. CO2 surface fluxes at grid point scale estimated from a global 21 year reanalysis of atmospheric measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Bousquet, P.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Ramonet, M.; Rivier, L.; Schmidt, M.; Conway, T.J.; Aalto, T.; Anderson, B.E.; Vay, S.A.; Brunke, E.G.; Ciattaglia, L.; Esaki, Y.; Froehlich, M.; Gomez, A.; Gomez-Pelaez, A.J.; Haszpra, L.; Krummel, P.B.; Langenfelds, R.L.; Steele, L.P.; Leuenberger, M.; Machida, T.; Mukai, H.; Matsueda, H.; Sawa, Y.; Morgui, J.A.; Nakazawa, T.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Wofsy, S.; Worthy, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper documents a global Bayesian variational inversion of CO2 surface fluxes during the period 1988-2008. Weekly fluxes are estimated on a 3.75x2.5 (longitude-latitude) grid throughout the 21 years. The assimilated observations include 128 station records from three large data sets of surface CO2 mixing ratio measurements. A Monte Carlo approach rigorously quantifies the theoretical uncertainty of the inverted fluxes at various space and time scales, which is particularly important for proper interpretation of the inverted fluxes. Fluxes are evaluated indirectly against two independent CO2 vertical profile data sets constructed from aircraft measurements in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. The skill of the inversion is evaluated by the improvement brought over a simple benchmark flux estimation based on the observed atmospheric growth rate. Our error analysis indicates that the carbon budget from the inversion should be more accurate than the a priori carbon budget by 20% to 60% for terrestrial fluxes aggregated at the scale of subcontinental regions in the Northern Hemisphere and over a year, but the inversion cannot clearly distinguish between the regional carbon budgets within a continent. On the basis of the independent observations, the inversion is seen to improve the fluxes compared to the benchmark: the atmospheric simulation of CO2 with the Bayesian inversion method is better by about 1 ppm than the benchmark in the free troposphere, despite possible systematic transport errors. The inversion achieves this improvement by changing the regional fluxes over land at the seasonal and at the interannual time scales.

  7. The estimation of the surface energy balance of the North American Laurentian Great Lakes using satellite remote sensing and MERRA reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moukomla, Sitthisak

    The Surface Energy Balance (SEB) of the Great Lakes (GL) is a key to understanding the effects of climate change on the GL. There is a high possibility of underestimating the SEB of the GL when using existing methodologies with inputs from near-shore and land-based meteorological data. This study provides the first technique to investigate the SEB over the GL from July 2001 to December 2014 using a combination of data from satellite remote sensing, reanalysis data sets, and direct measurements. The pixel-based Great Lake Surface Temperature (GLST) under all-sky conditions were well correlated with the in situ observations (R2 = 0.9102) with a cool bias of -1.10 °C and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.39 °C. Contrary to expectations, the long-term trends of GLST decreased slightly due to the impact of an anomalously cold winter in 2013-2014. The components of the surface radiation budget estimated from the proposed method showed a good statistical agreement. Monthly spatial variations of net shortwave radiation varied with cloud cover and surface albedo while net longwave radiation varied with the temperature difference between the water surface and the atmosphere. We evaluated the feasibility of three different techniques for the estimation of the turbulent heat fluxes over the GL: i) the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance method; ii) the bulk aerodynamic approach and; iii) turbulent fluxes from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis). Turbulent heat fluxes from those methods were compared with the direct eddy covariance measurements. The best statistical agreement amongst the three approaches was the bulk aerodynamic approach. Turbulent fluxes estimate from MERRA were not recommended due to the poor statistic agreement with the direct measurements. Using the bulk aerodynamic or direct eddy covariance measurements, the over-lake evaporation peaked during winter. From MERRA, the over-lake precipitation is uniformly spread throughout the year. The Great Lakes Net

  8. Evaluation of PM2.5 Surface Concentration Simulated by Version 1 of the Nasa's MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis Over Israel and Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Leduc, Richard; Barrette, Nathalie; Elhacham, Emily; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang

    2017-01-01

    Version 1 of the NASA MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero) assimilates bias-corrected 18 aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua, and simulates particulate 19 matter (PM) concentration data to reproduce a consistent database of AOD and PM concentration around 20 the world from 2002 to the end of 2015. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate MERRAeros simulation 21 of fine PM concentration against surface measurements in two regions of the world with relatively high 22 levels of PM concentration but with profoundly different PM composition, those of Israel and Taiwan. 23 Being surrounded by major deserts, Israels PM load is characterized by a significant contribution of 24 mineral dust, and secondary contributions of sea salt particles, given its proximity to the Mediterranean 25 Sea, and sulfate particles originating from Israels own urban activities and transported from Europe. 26 Taiwans PM load is composed primarily of anthropogenic particles (sulfate, nitrate and carbonaceous 27 particles) locally produced or transported from China, with an additional contribution of springtime 28 transport of mineral dust originating from Chinese and Mongolian deserts. The evaluation in Israel 29 produced favorable results with MERRAero slightly overestimating measurements by 6 on average 30 and reproducing an excellent year-to-year and seasonal fluctuation. The evaluation in Taiwan was less 31 favorable with MERRAero underestimating measurements by 42 on average. Two likely reasons 32 explain this discrepancy: emissions of anthropogenic PM and their precursors are largely uncertain in 33 China, and MERRAero doesnt include nitrate particles in its simulation, a pollutant of predominately 34 anthropogenic sources. MERRAero nevertheless simulates well the concentration of fine PM during the 35 summer, when Taiwan is least affected by the advection of pollution from China.

  9. Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

  10. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  11. Variations in return value estimate of ocean surface waves - a study based on measured buoy data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammed Naseef, T.; Sanil Kumar, V.

    2017-10-01

    An assessment of extreme wave characteristics during the design of marine facilities not only helps to ensure their safety but also assess the economic aspects. In this study, return levels of significant wave height (Hs) for different periods are estimated using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the Waverider buoy data spanning 8 years and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data spanning 38 years. The analysis is carried out for wind-sea, swell and total Hs separately for buoy data. Seasonality of the prevailing wave climate is also considered in the analysis to provide return levels for short-term activities in the location. The study shows that the initial distribution method (IDM) underestimates return levels compared to GPD. The maximum return levels estimated by the GPD corresponding to 100 years are 5.10 m for the monsoon season (JJAS), 2.66 m for the pre-monsoon season (FMAM) and 4.28 m for the post-monsoon season (ONDJ). The intercomparison of return levels by block maxima (annual, seasonal and monthly maxima) and the r-largest method for GEV theory shows that the maximum return level for 100 years is 7.20 m in the r-largest series followed by monthly maxima (6.02 m) and annual maxima (AM) (5.66 m) series. The analysis is also carried out to understand the sensitivity of the number of observations for the GEV annual maxima estimates. It indicates that the variations in the standard deviation of the series caused by changes in the number of observations are positively correlated with the return level estimates. The 100-year return level results of Hs using the GEV method are comparable for short-term (2008 to 2016) buoy data (4.18 m) and long-term (1979 to 2016) ERA-Interim shallow data (4.39 m). The 6 h interval data tend to miss high values of Hs, and hence there is a significant difference in the 100-year return level Hs obtained using 6 h interval data compared to data at 0.5 h interval. The

  12. Approximate Reanalysis in Topology Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Bendsøe, Martin P.; Sigmund, Ole

    2009-01-01

    In the nested approach to structural optimization, most of the computational effort is invested in the solution of the finite element analysis equations. In this study, the integration of an approximate reanalysis procedure into the framework of topology optimization of continuum structures...

  13. Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Todling, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the modifications implemented into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version-5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to maintain global conservation of dry atmospheric mass as well as to preserve the model balance of globally integrated precipitation and surface evaporation during reanalysis. Section 1 begins with a review of these global quantities from four current reanalysis efforts. Section 2 introduces the modifications necessary to preserve these constraints within the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis procedure, and the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) algorithm. Section 3 presents experiments quantifying the impact of the new procedure. Section 4 shows preliminary results from its use within the GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis project. Section 5 concludes with a summary.

  14. Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution ...

  15. Sensitivity of Satellite-Based Skin Temperature to Different Surface Emissivity and NWP Reanalysis Sources Demonstrated Using a Single-Channel, Viewing-Angle-Corrected Retrieval Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarino, B. R.; Minnis, P.; Yost, C. R.; Chee, T.; Palikonda, R.

    2015-12-01

    Single-channel algorithms for satellite thermal-infrared- (TIR-) derived land and sea surface skin temperature (LST and SST) are advantageous in that they can be easily applied to a variety of satellite sensors. They can also accommodate decade-spanning instrument series, particularly for periods when split-window capabilities are not available. However, the benefit of one unified retrieval methodology for all sensors comes at the cost of critical sensitivity to surface emissivity (ɛs) and atmospheric transmittance estimation. It has been demonstrated that as little as 0.01 variance in ɛs can amount to more than a 0.5-K adjustment in retrieved LST values. Atmospheric transmittance requires calculations that employ vertical profiles of temperature and humidity from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Selection of a given NWP model can significantly affect LST and SST agreement relative to their respective validation sources. Thus, it is necessary to understand the accuracies of the retrievals for various NWP models to ensure the best LST/SST retrievals. The sensitivities of the single-channel retrievals to surface emittance and NWP profiles are investigated using NASA Langley historic land and ocean clear-sky skin temperature (Ts) values derived from high-resolution 11-μm TIR brightness temperature measured from geostationary satellites (GEOSat) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR). It is shown that mean GEOSat-derived, anisotropy-corrected LST can vary by up to ±0.8 K depending on whether CERES or MODIS ɛs sources are used. Furthermore, the use of either NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) or NASA Goddard Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the radiative transfer model initial atmospheric state can account for more than 0.5-K variation in mean Ts. The results are compared to measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program ground

  16. SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, M.; Long, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The middle atmosphere and climate community use reanalyses widely to understand atmospheric processes and variability in the middle atmosphere, to validate climate models, and, potentially, for trend analysis. Yet different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic. There is thus a need for a coordinated reanalysis intercomparison project that shall start a comprehensive activity to compare all appropriate reanalysis data sets for key diagnostics to help understand the causes of differences and to use the results to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies. In addition, the reanalysis community will benefit from coordinated user feedback, which can lead to improvements in the next generation of reanalysis products. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a SPARC activity that was proposed in 2012 and approved in 2014. The goals of S-RIP are: (1) to create a communication platform between the SPARC community and the reanalysis centers; (2) to understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region; and (3) to write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report. The project duration is from 2013 to 2018. In the presentation, an overview of the project is made and some early intercomparison results are discussed.

  17. Status and Preliminary Evaluation for Chinese Re-Analysis Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    bin, zhao; chunxiang, shi; tianbao, zhao; dong, si; jingwei, liu

    2016-04-01

    Based on operational T639L60 spectral model, combined with Hybird_GSI assimilation system by using meteorological observations including radiosondes, buoyes, satellites el al., a set of Chinese Re-Analysis (CRA) datasets is developing by Chinese National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). The datasets are run at 30km (0.28°latitude / longitude) resolution which holds higher resolution than most of the existing reanalysis dataset. The reanalysis is done in an effort to enhance the accuracy of historical synoptic analysis and aid to find out detailed investigation of various weather and climate systems. The current status of reanalysis is in a stage of preliminary experimental analysis. One-year forecast data during Jun 2013 and May 2014 has been simulated and used in synoptic and climate evaluation. We first examine the model prediction ability with the new assimilation system, and find out that it represents significant improvement in Northern and Southern hemisphere, due to addition of new satellite data, compared with operational T639L60 model, the effect of upper-level prediction is improved obviously and overall prediction stability is enhanced. In climatological analysis, compared with ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses, the results show that surface temperature simulates a bit lower in land and higher over ocean, 850-hPa specific humidity reflects weakened anomaly and the zonal wind value anomaly is focus on equatorial tropics. Meanwhile, the reanalysis dataset shows good ability for various climate index, such as subtropical high index, ESMI (East-Asia subtropical Summer Monsoon Index) et al., especially for the Indian and western North Pacific monsoon index. Latter we will further improve the assimilation system and dynamical simulating performance, and obtain 40-years (1979-2018) reanalysis datasets. It will provide a more comprehensive analysis for synoptic and climate diagnosis.

  18. A compendium of P- and S-wave velocities from surface-to-borehole logging; summary and reanalysis of previously published data and analysis of unpublished data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boore, David M.

    2003-01-01

    For over 28 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been acquiring seismic velocity and geologic data at a number of locations in California, many of which were chosen because strong ground motions from earthquakes were recorded at the sites. The method for all measurements involves picking first arrivals of P- and S-waves from a surface source recorded at various depths in a borehole (as opposed to noninvasive methods, such as the SASW method [e.g., Brown et al., 2002]). The results from most of the sites are contained in a series of U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Reports (see References). Until now, none of the results have been available as computer files, and before 1992 the interpretation of the arrival times was in terms of piecemeal interval velocities, with no attempt to derive a layered model that would fit the travel times in an overall sense (the one exception is Porcella, 1984). In this report I reanalyze all of the arrival times in terms of layered models for P- and for S-wave velocities at each site, and I provide the results as computer files. In addition to the measurements reported in the open-file reports, I also include some borehole results from other reports, as well as some results never before published. I include data for 277 boreholes (at the time of this writing; more will be added to the web site as they are obtained), all in California (I have data from boreholes in Washington and Utah, but these will be published separately). I am also in the process of interpreting travel time data obtained using a seismic cone penetrometer at hundreds of sites; these data can be interpreted in the same way of those obtained from surface-to-borehole logging. When available, the data will be added to the web site (see below for information on obtaining data from the World Wide Web (WWW)). In addition to the basic borehole data and results, I provide information concerning strong-motion stations that I judge to be close enough to the boreholes

  19. South Baltic Wind Atlas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pena Diaz, Alfredo; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

    A first version of a wind atlas for the South Baltic Sea has been developed using the WRF mesoscale model and verified by data from tall Danish and German masts. Six different boundary-layer parametrization schemes were evaluated by comparing the WRF results to the observed wind profiles...... at the masts. The WRF modeling was done in a nested domain of high spatial resolution for 4 years. In addition the longterm wind statistics using the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis data were performed during 30 years to provide basis for a long-term adjustment of the results and the final WRF results include a weighting...... for the long-term trends variability in the South Baltic Sea. Observations from Earth observing satellites were used to evaluate the spatial resolution of the WRF model results near the surface. The QuikSCAT and the WRF results compared well whereas the Envisat ASAR mean wind map showed some variation...

  20. Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    A dynamically consistent, long-term atmospheric reanalysis can be used to support high-quality assessments of environmental risk and likelihood of extreme events. Most reanalyses are presently based on coarse-scale global systems that are not suitable for regional assessments in fire risk, water and natural resources, amongst others. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is currently working to close this gap by producing a high-resolution reanalysis over the Australian and New Zealand region to construct a sequence of atmospheric conditions at sub-hourly intervals over the past 25 years from 1990. The Australia reanalysis consists of a convective-scale analysis nested within a 12 km regional-scale reanalysis, which is bounded by a coarse-scale ERA-Interim reanalysis that provides the required boundary and initial conditions. We use an unchanging atmospheric modelling suite based on the UERRA system used at the UK Met Office and the more recent version of the Bureau of Meteorology's operational numerical prediction model used in ACCESS-R (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Regional system). An advanced (4-dimensional variational) data assimilation scheme is used to optimally combine model physics with multiple observations from aircrafts, sondes, surface observations and satellites to create a best estimate of state of the atmosphere over a 6-hour moving window. This analysis is in turn used to drive a higher-resolution (1.5 km) downscaling model over selected subdomains within Australia, currently eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, with the capability to support this anywhere in the Australia-New Zealand domain. The temporal resolution of the gridded analysis fields for both the regional and higher-resolution subdomains are generally one hour, with many fields such as 10 m winds and 2 m temperatures available every 10 minutes. The reanalysis also produces many other variables that include wind, temperature, moisture, pressure, cloud cover

  1. Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

    OpenAIRE

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2013-01-01

    Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatial distribution of the extreme wind with coarse resolution data giving smaller extreme winds. The CFSR surface winds at 38 km horizontal resolution provides the best spatial distribution of the extreme...

  2. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; White, G.; Woollen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Leetmaa, A.; Reynolds, B.; Chelliah, M.; Ebisuzaki, W.; Higgins, W.; Janowiak, J.; Mo, K. C.; Ropelewski, C.; Wang, J.; Jenne, Roy; Joseph, Dennis

    1996-03-01

    The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted "reanalysis") to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957-96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system.The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a "quick look" CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CD-ROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, "C" variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined

  3. High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

    2017-10-01

    Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

  4. Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ron

    2018-01-01

    Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

  5. NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project is using a state-of-the-art analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1979 through near present....

  6. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NARR dataset is an extension of the NCEP Global Reanalysis which is run over the North American Region. The NARR model uses the very high resolution NCEP Eta...

  7. Evaluation of reanalysis datasets against observational soil temperature data over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai; Zhang, Jingyong

    2018-01-01

    Soil temperature is a key land surface variable, and is a potential predictor for seasonal climate anomalies and extremes. Using observational soil temperature data in China for 1981-2005, we evaluate four reanalysis datasets, the land surface reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim/Land), the second modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), and version 2 of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0), with a focus on 40 cm soil layer. The results show that reanalysis data can mainly reproduce the spatial distributions of soil temperature in summer and winter, especially over the east of China, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Owing to the influence of precipitation on soil temperature, the four datasets perform better in winter than in summer. The ERA-Interim/Land and GLDAS-2.0 produce spatial characteristics of the climatological mean that are similar to observations. The interannual variability of soil temperature is well reproduced by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset in summer and by the CFSR dataset in winter. The linear trend of soil temperature in summer is well rebuilt by reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate that soil heat fluxes in April-June and in winter are highly correlated with the soil temperature in summer and winter, respectively. Different estimations of surface energy balance components can contribute to different behaviors in reanalysis products in terms of estimating soil temperature. In addition, reanalysis datasets can mainly rebuild the northwest-southeast gradient of soil temperature memory over China.

  8. Efficacy of Interventions with Caregivers: A Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlatch, Carol J.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Presents reanalysis of previously reported study (Zarit et al.,1987) with family caregivers (n=113) of dementia patients using the method of prediction analysis. Compared with subjects on a waiting list or enrolled in support groups, caregivers in individual and family counseling were more likely to have successful outcomes. Recommends previous…

  9. AN EFFICIENT STRUCTURAL REANALYSIS MODEL FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to a form (see Annex): in which F is the flexibility matrix, N is the vector of redundant forces, and D the displacement compatibility vector corresponding to the ... effort both in the synthesis and the analysis phases as reanalysis is to be carried out at significantly. 'large number of design coordinates in the design space. A more ...

  10. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), for 1979 to Present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Project is a reanalysis of historical observations using a 32-km version of the National Centers for Environmental...

  11. The NASA Reanalysis Ensemble Service - Advanced Capabilities for Integrated Reanalysis Access and Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    NASA's efforts to advance climate analytics-as-a-service are making new capabilities available to the research community: (1) A full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) comprising monthly means data from multiple reanalysis data sets, accessible through an enhanced set of extraction, analytic, arithmetic, and intercomparison operations. The operations are made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib; (2) A cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables. This near real-time capability enables advanced technologies like Spark and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files; and (3) A WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation systems such as ESGF. The Reanalysis Ensemble Service includes the following: - New API that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services with sample queries - A Docker-ready RES application to deploy across platforms - Extended capabilities that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, standard deviation, and ensemble averages - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses including basic sub-setting and arithmetic operations (e.g., avg, sum, max, min, var, count, anomaly) - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset in addition to, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JMA JRA-55 and NOAA/ESRL 20CR… - A Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism designed for client use cases that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive scenarios and personalized project management - Supporting analytic services for NASA GMAO Forward Processing datasets - Basic uncertainty quantification services that combine heterogeneous ensemble products with comparative observational products (e

  12. Reanalysis of Tyrannosaurus rex Mass Spectra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bern, Marshall; Phinney, Brett S; Goldberg, David

    2009-09-01

    Asara et al. reported the detection of collagen peptides in a 68-million-year-old Tyrannosaurus rex bone by shotgun proteomics. This finding has been called into question as a possible statistical artifact. We reanalyze Asara et al.'s tandem mass spectra using a different search engine and different statistical tools. Our reanalysis shows a sample containing common laboratory contaminants, soil bacteria, and bird-like hemoglobin and collagen.

  13. Reanalysis of Tyrannosaurus rex Mass Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bern, Marshall; Phinney, Brett S.; Goldberg, David

    2009-01-01

    Asara et al. reported the detection of collagen peptides in a 68-million-year-old T. rex bone by shotgun proteomics. This finding has been called into question as a possible statistical artifact. We reanalyze Asara et al.'s tandem mass spectra using a different search engine and different statistical tools. Our reanalysis shows a sample containing common laboratory contaminants, soil bacteria, and bird-like hemoglobin and collagen. PMID:19603827

  14. A reanalysis of resistive size effects in tungsten

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sambles, J.R.; Mundy, J.N.

    1983-01-01

    A reanalysis of available data on the influence of surface scattering upon the resistivity of high-purity tungsten is presented. It is shown that some of the data appear to fit quite well to Soffer's model of surface scattering. From this new analysis values for the product rhosub(infinity)lambdasub(infinity) (bulk resistivity times bulk mean free path) may be obtained lying in the range 1.0-1.7 fΩ m 2 . Early data, which could not be interpreted using Fuchs' theory of surface scattering, may now be explained and yield surface roughness ratios (ratio of root mean square height of deviations from the mean surface to the Fermi wavelength) of the order of 0.2-2.5, typical of the value expected for atomically smooth to atomically rough surfaces. However, more recent data violate Soffer's theory in a convincing fashion. They illustrate fully the severe dangers of using a theory to interpret data for which it is not at all applicable. The Fermi surface of tungsten by no means approximates a simple sphere (one of the basic assumptions of the Soffer model). Hence such a naive treatment as Fuchs' leads to meaningless parameters such as quoted above. This paper is presented as a warning to all experimentalists who attempt to interpret data from metals with complex Fermi surfaces in a simple-minded fashion (e.g. using Fuchs' model). (author)

  15. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRV2)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire...

  16. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2c)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRV2c)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the...

  17. Efficient reanalysis techniques for robust topology optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov

    2012-01-01

    The article focuses on the reduction of the computational effort involved in robust topology optimization procedures. The performance of structures designed by means of topology optimization may be seriously degraded due to fabrication errors. Robust formulations of the optimization problem were...... shown to yield optimized designs that are tolerant with respect to such manufacturing uncertainties. The main drawback of such procedures is the added computational cost associated with the need to evaluate a set of designs by performing multiple finite element analyses. In this article, we propose...... efficient robust topology optimization procedures based on reanalysis techniques. The approach is demonstrated on two compliant mechanism design problems where robust design is achieved by employing either a worst case formulation or a stochastic formulation. It is shown that the time spent on finite...

  18. Extreme winds over Denmark from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    An extreme wind analysis of wind speed calculated in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is done for grid points over and near Denmark. Winds at 10 m, 850 hPa, and geostrophic winds at 850 hPa, 1000 hPa, and at the sea level are analyzed. At 10 m height the expectedextreme wind with a return period of 50...... at 850 hPa and the geostrophic wind at 850 hPa or 1000 hPa yield very similar extreme winds of approximately 42ms-1. The geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure is approximately 45 ms-1 in central Denmark. The geostrophic winds at 1000 hPa are slightly stronger than at 850 hPa, which...... are somewhat greater than the actual wind at 850 hPa.Transformations to a wind at 10 m over a surface with roughness 5 cm with the help of the drag law yield extreme winds, which are approximately 10-12 % less than from surface measurements. The 850 hPa winds and the geostrophic wind calculated from thesurface...

  19. A 10-year global gridded Aerosol Optical Thickness Reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Zhang, J.; Westphal, D. L.; Campbell, J. R.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D.; Hyer, E. J.; Sessions, W.; Shi, Y.; Turk, J.

    2013-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need of a best-available fused product on a regular grid for numerous climate and applied applications. Remote sensing and modeling technologies have now advanced to a point where aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers. It is inevitable that, like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see heavy use in the near future. A first long term, 2003-2012 global 1x1 degree and 6-hourly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product has been generated. The goal of this effort is not only for climate applications, but to generate a dataset that can be used by the US Navy to understand operationally hindering aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and application of electro-optical technologies. The reanalysis utilizes Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled collection 5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD with minor corrections from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRaditometer (MISR). A subset of this product includes Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar assimilation since its launch in mid-2006. Surface aerosol sources, including dust and smoke, in the aerosol model have been regionally tuned so that fine and coarse mode AOTs best match those resolve by ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT is then used to adjust other aerosol processes, eg., sources, dry deposition, etc. Aerosol wet deposition is constrained with satellite-retrieved precipitation. The final AOT reanalysis is shown to exhibit good agreement with AERONET. Here we review the development of the reanalysis and consider issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses. Considerations are also made for extending such work

  20. Runoff simulation using the North American regional reanalysis data set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, P.; Kim, S.J.; Moore, A.; Choi, W.

    2008-01-01

    In part due to concerns about the impact of climate change, there has been an increased interest in hydrological modelling of watersheds in Canada. Most of Canada is sparsely populated and a recurrent problem is the lack of quality weather data that are often not available at the sites of interest. Continuous hydrologic models require input of temperature and precipitation as a minimum, and often additional information such as solar radiation and humidity. It is not uncommon that such information must be obtained by interpolating information from weather stations located far outside the watershed. The difficulty in obtaining good calibration results is obvious in such cases. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set has been found to be in reasonable agreement with surface observations. NARR surface data, including those commonly required in hydrologic models, are available on a 32 km by 32 km grid which is appropriate for hydrologic modelling. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether hydrologic models for selected watersheds in Central Canada can be adequately calibrated using NARR data rather than conventional station information. For the specific case studies considered here, it is found that calibration with NARR weather information is quite acceptable and similar to what can be obtained using interpolated weather station data. (author)

  1. Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Moraes, Elisabete C; Bertani, Gabriel; Dos Santos, Thiago V; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Aragão, Luiz E O C

    2016-06-24

    In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001-December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

  2. Stratospheric Intrusion-Influenced Ozone Air Quality Exceedances Investigated in the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowland, K. E.; Ott, L. E.; Duncan, B. N.; Wargan, K.

    2017-10-01

    Stratospheric intrusions have been the interest of decades of research for their ability to bring stratospheric ozone (O3) into the troposphere with the potential to enhance surface O3 concentrations. However, these intrusions have been misrepresented in models and reanalyses until recently, as the features of a stratospheric intrusion are best identified in horizontal resolutions of 50 km or smaller. NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis is a publicly available high-resolution data set (˜50 km) with assimilated O3 that characterizes O3 on the same spatiotemporal resolution as the meteorology. We demonstrate the science capabilities of the MERRA-2 reanalysis when applied to the evaluation of stratospheric intrusions that impact surface air quality. This is demonstrated through a case study analysis of stratospheric intrusion-influenced O3 exceedances in spring 2012 in Colorado, using a combination of observations, the MERRA-2 reanalysis and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 simulations.

  3. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  4. The Mediterranean interannual variability in MEDRYS, a Mediterranean Sea reanalysis over 1992-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beuvier, Jonathan; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Alias, Antoinette; Arsouze, Thomas; Benkiran, Mounir; Béranger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean area (more specific Post-Glacial-Rebound corrections, new model-equivalent for the Sea Level Anomaly for example) have been introduced. Temperature and salinity vertical profiles from the newly released CORA4 database, altimeter data and satellite SST and are jointly assimilated. Thus, the reanalysis benefits from the intensive observational field campaigns carried out during the HyMeX Special Observation Periods (SOPs) in fall 2012 and winter 2013 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea. We assess here the ability of a MEDRYS1 to reproduce the general circulation and the water masses in the Mediterranean Sea. We present the misfit between the reanalysis and the assimilated observations, as well as differences between the reanalysis and its twin free simulation. We show diagnostics on the surface circulation variability, heat and salt contents and deep water formation over the whole period of the reanalysis, with also a focus on the impact of the HyMeX data during the SOPs time period.

  5. AVHRR GAC SST Reanalysis Version 1 (RAN1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Ignatov

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In response to its users’ needs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA initiated reanalysis (RAN of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC; 4 km sea surface temperature (SST data employing its Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO retrieval system. Initially, AVHRR/3 data from five NOAA and two Metop satellites from 2002 to 2015 have been reprocessed. The derived SSTs have been matched up with two reference SSTs—the quality controlled in situ SSTs from the NOAA in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC L4 SST analysis—and analyzed in the NOAA SST Quality Monitor (SQUAM online system. The corresponding clear-sky ocean brightness temperatures (BT in AVHRR bands 3b, 4 and 5 (centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 µm, respectively have been compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model simulations in another NOAA online system, Monitoring of Infrared Clear-sky Radiances over Ocean for SST (MICROS. For some AVHRRs, the time series of “AVHRR minus reference” SSTs and “observed minus model” BTs are unstable and inconsistent, with artifacts in the SSTs and BTs strongly correlated. In the official “Reanalysis version 1” (RAN1, data from only five platforms—two midmorning (NOAA-17 and Metop-A and three afternoon (NOAA-16, -18 and -19—were included during the most stable periods of their operations. The stability of the SST time series was further improved using variable regression SST coefficients, similarly to how it was done in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder version 5.2 (PFV5.2 dataset. For data assimilation applications, especially those blending satellite and in situ SSTs, we recommend bias-correcting the RAN1 SSTs using the newly developed sensor-specific error statistics (SSES, which are reported in the product files. Relative performance of RAN1 and PFV5.2 SSTs is discussed. Work is underway to improve the calibration of AVHRR/3s and

  6. Quantifying How Observations Inform a Numerical Reanalysis of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, B. S.

    2017-11-01

    When assimilating observations into a model via state-estimation, it is possible to quantify how each observation changes the modeled estimate of a chosen oceanic metric. Using an existing 2 year reanalysis of Hawaii that includes more than 31 million observations from satellites, ships, SeaGliders, and autonomous floats, I assess which observations most improve the estimates of the transport and eddy kinetic energy. When the SeaGliders were in the water, they comprised less than 2.5% of the data, but accounted for 23% of the transport adjustment. Because the model physics constrains advanced state-estimation, the prescribed covariances are propagated in time to identify observation-model covariance. I find that observations that constrain the isopycnal tilt across the transport section provide the greatest impact in the analysis. In the case of eddy kinetic energy, observations that constrain the surface-driven upper ocean have more impact. This information can help to identify optimal sampling strategies to improve both state-estimates and forecasts.

  7. JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yumimoto

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1°  ×  1.1°. This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET (RMSE  =  0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE  =  28.1 %, MFB  =  0.6 %, and IOA  =  0.93. Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in

  8. JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumimoto, Keiya; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Oshima, Naga; Maki, Takashi

    2017-09-01

    A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero) was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1° × 1.1°). This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation) of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE) of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB) of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (RMSE = 0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE = 28.1 %, MFB = 0.6 %, and IOA = 0.93). Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in industrializing countries) and a positive bias at mountain sites, possibly because

  9. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

  10. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  11. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  12. Extreme winds over Denmark from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, H.P.

    2001-05-01

    An extreme wind analysis of wind speed calculated in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is done for grid points over and near Denmark. Winds at 10 m, 850 hPa, and geostrophic winds at 850 hPa, 1000 hPa, and at the sea level are analyzed. At 10 m height the expected extreme wind with a return period of 50 years at the North Sea west of Denmark is 27 ms{sup -1}. It is approximately 11 % less than estimates from observations. However, values at grid points over land in Denmark cannot be compared with observations because the roughness length of these land surfaces is far to big in the model. A transformation to a common roughness length of 5 cm using the geostrophic drag law yields too high values. At points in northern Germany, where the surface roughness of the model is less, the transformed 50-years wind speed is 22-23 ms{sup -1}, which agrees well with estimates obtained from measurements. The analyses of the wind at 850 hPa and the geostrophic wind at 850 hPa or 1000 hPa yield very similar extreme winds of approximately 42 ms{sup -1}. The geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure is approximately 45 ms{sup -1} in central Denmark. The geostrophic winds at 1000 hPa are slightly stronger than at 850 hPa, which are somewhat greater than the actual wind at 850 hPa. Transformations to a wind at 10 m over a surface with roughness 5 cm with the help of the drag law yield extreme winds, which are approximately 10-12 % less than from surface measurements. The 850 hPa winds and the geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure indicate a weak decrease from west to east, whereas the geostrophic wind data at constant pressure levels show almost constant extreme winds across Denmark. All upper-air and geostrophic wind data show higher extreme winds in northern Germany than in Denmark. Further investigations are necessary to find out if the underestimation of the extreme wind by approximately 10-12 % is valid in most mid-latitudes. (au)

  13. Ocean Monitoring Indicators for the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry derived from a high-resolution reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Bolzon, Giorgio; Salon, Stefano; Teruzzi, Anna; Lazzari, Paolo; Crise, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    In recent years the interest in multi-decadal reanalyses of the status of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem has been rising constantly, also in light of the need of information for a proper implementation of European directives (e.g. MSFD). State-of-art reanalyses of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry - being an optimal integration of multi-platforms data and numerical models - constitute an extremely relevant source of information in evaluating the ecosystem status at basin and sub-basin scale. Furthermore, they provide highly valuable data to be used as boundary conditions for local studies. The objective of this work is to produce sensible environmental indicators useful to characterize the environmental status of the Mediterranean starting from an upgraded high-resolution reanalysis of Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry delivered in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS). The reanalysis was qualified by a comparison against several available data sets, in terms of the main surface and sub-surface biogeochemical essential climate variables (chlorophyll, carbon dioxide partial pressure, ocean acidity, nutrients, oxygen). The reanalysis outputs reproduced spatial patterns, seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of the assessed variables, allowing for a proper description of recent trends and present status of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry. Our results confirm the vision of the Mediterranean as a mainly oligotrophic ecosystem with the presence of significant biogeochemical gradients from the eastern to the western sub-basins (e.g. in chlorophyll, nutrients, primary production). Our reanalysis can be used to contribute estimating eutrophication MFSD descriptors, atmospheric carbon sequestration fluxes, first assessment of potential resources available for the higher trophic levels and more. Indeed, the reanalysis data set provides a suitable basis for the estimation of the so-called Ocean Monitoring Indicators

  14. Investigation on the Urmia Lake Drought Using Satellite Altimetry and Weather Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabzehee, F.; Nafisi, V.; Iran Pour, S.

    2017-09-01

    The Urmia Lake is located in northwestern Iran. It is the sixth largest salt lake in the world. In the past 14 years, this lake strongly faced to the water level decrease and surface water reduction. Several space-borne techniques have been employed for detecting the hydrological cycle and its inter-annual changes. The goal of this paper is to investigate weather reanalysis products such as specific humidity of NCEP model and a total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF model and other techniques such as satellite altimetry that have been powerful for the identification of some drought factors of the Urmia Lake. In this study, we used satellite altimetry data from ENVISAT and CryoSat-2 to monitor the Lake water level and optical satellite imagery to determine the surface water extent of the lake during 2002 to 2014. Our altimetry and satellite imagery results reveal decrease in height and area of Urmia Lake over the last 14 years. The lake surface area and the water level decreased continuously at approximately 2666 km2 and 3.5 m respectively. Moreover, we employed the monthly 0.125°×0.125° datasets of the ECMWF data and 2.5°×2.5° datasets of the NCEP data to demonstrate amount of water vapor in the atmosphere over the lake. The total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF data and specific humidity of NCEP data show similar behavior. Results indicate that no meaningful correlation between the altimetry data and weather reanalysis models exists. The weather reanalysis models do not indicate descending variations during 2000 until 2014. For interpreting the situation and studying the climate change and man-made impacts on the drought in this region, we need to use ground-based data such as wind speed, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature.

  15. INVESTIGATION ON THE URMIA LAKE DROUGHT USING SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND WEATHER REANALYSIS PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sabzehee

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Urmia Lake is located in northwestern Iran. It is the sixth largest salt lake in the world. In the past 14 years, this lake strongly faced to the water level decrease and surface water reduction. Several space-borne techniques have been employed for detecting the hydrological cycle and its inter-annual changes. The goal of this paper is to investigate weather reanalysis products such as specific humidity of NCEP model and a total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF model and other techniques such as satellite altimetry that have been powerful for the identification of some drought factors of the Urmia Lake. In this study, we used satellite altimetry data from ENVISAT and CryoSat-2 to monitor the Lake water level and optical satellite imagery to determine the surface water extent of the lake during 2002 to 2014. Our altimetry and satellite imagery results reveal decrease in height and area of Urmia Lake over the last 14 years. The lake surface area and the water level decreased continuously at approximately 2666 km2 and 3.5 m respectively. Moreover, we employed the monthly 0.125°×0.125° datasets of the ECMWF data and 2.5°×2.5° datasets of the NCEP data to demonstrate amount of water vapor in the atmosphere over the lake. The total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF data and specific humidity of NCEP data show similar behavior. Results indicate that no meaningful correlation between the altimetry data and weather reanalysis models exists. The weather reanalysis models do not indicate descending variations during 2000 until 2014. For interpreting the situation and studying the climate change and man-made impacts on the drought in this region, we need to use ground-based data such as wind speed, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature.

  16. Simulation of the anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia and their effects on Indian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ji, Zhenming [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Kang, Shichang [Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Lanzhou (China); Zhang, Dongfeng [Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan (China); Zhu, Chunzi [Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing (China); Wu, Jia; Xu, Ying [National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

    2011-05-15

    A regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model is employed to simulate the anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon and their direct effect on climate over South Asia. The model is driven by the NCAR/NCEP re-analysis data. Multi-year simulations with half, normal and double emission fluxes are conducted. Results show that the model performs well in reproducing present climate over the region. Simulations of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration of aerosols are also reasonable although to a less extent. The negative radiative forcing is found at the top of atmosphere and largely depended on emission concentration. Surface air temperature decreases by 0.1-0.5 C both in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The range and intensity of cooling areas enlarge while aerosol emission increases. Changes in precipitation are between -25 and 25%. Different diversifications of rainfall are showed with three emission scenarios. The changes of precipitation are consistent with varieties of monsoon onset dates in pre-monsoon season. In the regions of increasing precipitation, monsoon onset is advanced and vice versa. In northeast India and Myanmar, aerosols lead the India summer monsoon onset advancing 1-2 pentads, and delaying by 1-2 pentads in central and southeast India. These changes are mainly caused by the anomaly of local Hadley circulations and enhancive precipitation. Tibetan Plateau played a crucial role in the circulation changes. (orig.)

  17. A North American regional reanalysis climatology of the Haines Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Lu; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Sharon Zhong; Xindi Bian; Shuhua. Liu

    2011-01-01

    A warm-season (May through October) Haines Index climatology is derived using 32-km regional reanalysis temperature and humidity data from 1980 to 2007. We compute lapse rates, dewpoint depressions, Haines Index factors A and B, and values for each of the low-, mid- and high-elevation variants of the Haines Index. Statistical techniques are used to investigate the...

  18. Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

    2012-01-15

    In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

  19. Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

    2013-01-01

    Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatial...

  20. Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

  1. An efficient structural reanalysis model for general design changes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Approximate structural reanalysis methods have long been pursued in quest for efficiency so as to enhance their practical' application in the assessment and verification of designs following design modifications, These have been of significant practical importance with particular emphasis on design optimization of ...

  2. Role of extratropical cyclones in the recently observed increase in poleward moisture transport into the Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamil-Otero, Gian A.; Zhang, Jing; He, Juanxiong; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2018-01-01

    Poleward atmospheric moisture transport (AMT) into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vapor content and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surface energy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced poleward AMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMT predominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to the total transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role that extratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the Arctic Ocean each year, among which about 66 (32% of the total) and 47 (23%) originate from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, we found a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index (measurement of cyclone intensity, number, and duration). This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parameters and may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysis indicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activity play an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.

  3. Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

    2018-02-01

    Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

  4. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  5. A Reanalysis of Hurricane Andrew's Intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsea, Christopher W.; Franklin, James L.; McAdie, Colin J.; Beven, John L., II; Gross, James M.; Jarvinen, Brian R.; Pasch, Richard J.; Rappaport, Edward N.; Dunion, Jason P.; Dodge, Peter P.

    2004-11-01

    Hurricane Andrew of 1992 caused unprecedented economic devastation along its path through the Bahamas, southeastern Florida, and Louisiana. Damage in the United States was estimated to be $26 billion (in 1992 dollars), making Andrew one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history. This hurricane struck southeastern Florida with maximum 1-min surface winds estimated in a 1992 poststorm analysis at 125 kt (64 m s-1). This original assessment was primarily based on an adjustment of aircraft reconnaissance flight-level winds to the surface.Based on recent advancements in the understanding of the eyewall wind structure of major hurricanes, the official intensity of Andrew was adjusted upward for five days during its track across the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico by the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee. In particular, Andrew is now assessed by the National Hurricane Center to be a Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale category-5 hurricane (the highest intensity category possible) at its landfall in southeastern Florida, with maximum 1-min winds of 145 kt (75 m s-1). This makes Andrew only the third category-5 hurricane to strike the United States since at least 1900. Implications for how this change impacts society's planning for such extreme events are discussed.

  6. Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

  7. A System of Oceanic Reanalysis (SOR) fot the Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pnyushkov, A.

    2009-04-01

    A system of oceanic reanalysis of the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Barents seas) directed to the investigations of long period changes in the oceanic climate of the Arctic sub-polar seas was developed. The system of oceanic reanalysys (SOR) includes hybrid coordinate 22-th level ocean model HYCOM [Bleck,2002] and modern oceanographic data assimilation technique based on spectral nudging method. A series of test experiments was carried out and optimal parameters for assimilation routine were choused. These parameters take into account the accuracy of spatial restoring by means objective analysis procedure and phase distortion in modeling fields during monotonous assimilation of monthly distributions. On the basis of modeling results a set of monthly mean hydrological distributions of thermohaline parameters was created for the Nordic seas that was used for climatic field compilations on the standard levels for period 1957-1990. The data of reanalysis system projections allow us to restore the information about structure and dynamic of oceanographic fields for the periods and areas with a small number of direct measurements, for example East-Greenland currents area, north and north-east parts of the Barents sea. A series of additional experiments with SOR were performed directed to the simple assimilation of sea ice concentration data. A significant improvement of the system of objectively analyzed field preparation was done during 2008 including additional validation procedure of gridded arrays with using the direct data of oceanographic stations. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 07-05-00393).

  8. Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871-2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards. The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis, available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871-2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and under-estimated over the whole of France. Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature (T). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959-2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in

  9. Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing

  10. Syntactic features in reanalysis: positive and negative symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, J D; Inoue, A

    2000-01-01

    Meng and Bader have presented evidence that a Case conflict is a more effective cue for garden-path reanalysis than a number conflict is, for German wh-sentences with subject-object ambiguities. The preferred first-pass analysis has the wh-trace in subject position, although object position is correct. In a speeded grammaticality judgment task, perceivers accepted Case-disambiguated examples more often and more rapidly than number-disambiguated examples, although comprehension questions indicated that both were eventually understood correctly. For ungrammatical sentences, a Case mismatch error resulted in more false positive grammaticality judgments than a number mismatch error. We offer an explanation for why Case and number features differ in these two ways in their effects on sentence processing. We propose, within the Diagnosis Model of garden-path processing, that reanalysis triggered by a Case mismatch guides the parser more effectively toward the correct structure. Case is a positive symptom, which carries information about the new structure that must be built. By contrast, a number mismatch is a negative symptom; it invalidates the incorrect structure without showing how to rebuild it. This difference in the transparency of garden-path repair can also account for the greater overacceptance of Case-disambiguated ungrammatical sentences. The speeded grammaticality judgment task is designed to encourage hasty responses. Usually, these are hasty rejections of garden path sentences that, on calmer reflection, the parser would find acceptable. Conversely, over-hasty acceptance could occur if some initial progress is made in resolving a grammatical problem. Thus, a higher rate of false positives on ungrammaticals is to be expected where reanalysis proceeds successfully for a while before blocking.

  11. Minimizing Reanalysis Jumps Due to New Observing Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Kalnay, E.; Chen, J.

    2014-12-01

    A major problem with reanalyses has been the presence of jumps in the climatology associated with changes in the observing system. These jumps became especially obvious when satellites were first introduced in 1979. After 1979, however, during the "satellite era" jumps have continued to appear whenever a new observing system was introduced. To explore this problem, we develop and test new methodologies to minimize these reanalysis jumps in the reanalyses time series due to new observing systems. We first study a state-of-the-art reanalysis, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA thereafter). Analysis increments from two 2-year analyses with SSM/I (referred to as MERRA) or without SSM/I (referred to as NoSSMI), are compared and their climatological differences are defined as correction terms. The correction terms are then introduced into the tendency equation of the forecast model, i.e., GEOS-5. The debiased reanalysis without SSM/I observations shows improvements in almost all fields, even in precipitation field that is generally considered to be uncertain on all time and space scales, but the correction is underestimated by about a factor of 2. We believe that this is because the correction terms defined here do not take into account the nonlinear interactions between the temperature and humidity fields observed by SSM/I, which would introduce accumulated errors during the 2-year experiment period. This deficiency can be corrected by doing the No-SSMI analysis using a MERRA background, as in the method of Danforth et al. (2007) We test the new correction method in a simpler data assimilation system, SPEEDY-LETKF because with our limited computational resource it is infeasible to apply this method to the complex MERRA system. The new method defines the correction terms by calculating the difference of analysis increments from the following two analyses, 1) assimilating both RAOB and AIRS observations, named RaobAirs, and 2

  12. Reanalysis Data Evaluation to Study Temperature Extremes in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Ongoing global climate changes are strongly pronounced in Siberia by significant warming in the 2nd half of 20th century and recent extreme events such as 2010 heat wave and 2013 flood in Russia's Far East. To improve our understanding of observed climate extremes and to provide to regional decision makers the reliable scientifically based information with high special and temporal resolution on climate state, we need to operate with accurate meteorological data in our study. However, from available 231 stations across Siberia only 130 of them present the homogeneous daily temperature time series. Sparse, station network, especially in high latitudes, force us to use simulated reanalysis data. However those might differ from observations. To obtain reliable information on temperature extreme "hot spots" in Siberia we have compared daily temperatures form ERA-40, ERA Interim, JRA-25, JRA-55, NCEP/DOE, MERRA Reanalysis, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX gridded datasets with observations from RIHMI-WDC/CDIAC dataset for overlap period 1981-2000. Data agreement was estimated at station coordinates to which reanalysis data were interpolated using modified Shepard method. Comparison of averaged over 20 year annual mean temperatures shows general agreement for Siberia excepting Baikal region, where reanalyses significantly underestimate observed temperature behavior. The annual temperatures closest to observed one were obtained from ERA-40 and ERA Interim. Furthermore, t-test results show homogeneity of these datasets, which allows one to combine them for long term time series analysis. In particular, we compared the combined data with observations for percentile-based extreme indices. In Western Siberia reanalysis and gridded data accurately reproduce observed daily max/min temperatures. For East Siberia, Lake Baikal area, ERA Interim data slightly underestimates TN90p and TX90p values. Results obtained allows regional decision-makers to get required high spatial resolution (0,25°×0

  13. Syntactic Reconstruction and Reanalysis, Semantic Dead Ends, and Prefrontal Cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

    2010-01-01

    The left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG) is crucially has been found to be involved in syntactic processing of various kinds. This study investigates the cortical effects of two types of syntactic processes: (i) Reconstruction in ellipsis (recovery of left-out material given by context, More people...... to reanalyze. Reanalysis and reconstruction require additional syntactic processing and were predicted to increase activation in areas otherwise involved in structural computation: LIFG (BA 44, 45), premotor BA 6, and posterior temporal BA 21, 22. This was borne out. The results showed an interaction effect...

  14. Ensemble-based Experimental Atmospheric Reanalysis using a Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komori, N.; Enomoto, T.; Miyoshi, T.; Yamazaki, A.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; Taguchi, B.

    2016-02-01

    To enhance the capability of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with the Atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the Earth Simulator (AFES), a new system has been developed by replacing AFES with the Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM for the Earth Simulator (CFES). An initial test of the prototype of the CFES-LETKF system has been completed successfully, assimilating atmospheric observational data (NCEP PREPBUFR archived at UCAR) every 6 hours to update the atmospheric variables, whereas the oceanic variables are kept unchanged throughout the assimilation procedure. An experimental retrospective analysis-forecast cycle with the coupled system (CLERA-A) starts on August 1, 2008, and the atmospheric initial conditions (63 members) are taken from the second generation of AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis (ALERA2). The ALERA2 analyses are also used as forcing of stand-alone 63-member ensemble simulations with the Ocean GCM for the Earth Simulator (EnOFES), from which the oceanic initial conditions for the CLERA-A are taken. The ensemble spread of SST is larger in CLERA-A than in EnOFES, suggesting positive feedback between the ocean and the atmosphere. Although SST in CLERA-A suffers from the common biases among many coupled GCMs, the ensemble spreads of air temperature and specific humidity in the lower troposphere are larger in CLERA-A than in ALERA2. Thus replacement of AFES with CFES successfully contributes to mitigate an underestimation of the ensemble spread near the surface resulting from the single boundary condition for all ensemble members and the lack of atmosphere-ocean interaction. In addition, the basin-scale structure of surface atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific is well reconstructed from the ensemble correlation in CLERA-A but not ALERA2. This suggests that use of a coupled GCM rather than an atmospheric GCM could be important even for atmospheric reanalysis with an ensemble-based data assimilation system.

  15. The climatology of planetary boundary layer height in China derived from radiosonde and reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Guo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The important roles of the planetary boundary layer (PBL in climate, weather and air quality have long been recognized, but little is known about the PBL climatology in China. Using the fine-resolution sounding observations made across China and reanalysis data, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of the PBL in China from January 2011 to July 2015. The boundary layer height (BLH is found to be generally higher in spring and summer than that in fall and winter. The comparison of seasonally averaged BLHs derived from observations and reanalysis, on average, shows good agreement, despite the pronounced inconsistence in some regions. The BLH, derived from soundings conducted three or four times daily in summer, tends to peak in the early afternoon, and the diurnal amplitude of BLH is higher in the northern and western subregions of China than other subregions. The meteorological influence on the annual cycle of BLH is investigated as well, showing that BLH at most sounding sites is negatively associated with the surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability, but positively associated with the near-surface wind speed and temperature. In addition, cloud tends to suppress the development of PBL, particularly in the early afternoon. This indicates that meteorology plays a significant role in the PBL processes. Overall, the key findings obtained from this study lay a solid foundation for us to gain a deep insight into the fundamentals of PBL in China, which helps to understand the roles that the PBL plays in the air pollution, weather and climate of China.

  16. Rainy Days in the New Arctic: A Comprehensive Look at Precipitation from 8 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Markus, T.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation in the Arctic plays an important role in the fresh water budget, and is the primary control of snow accumulation on sea ice. However, Arctic precipitation from reanalysis is highly uncertain due to differences in the atmospheric physics and use/approaches of data assimilation and sea ice concentrations across the different products. More specifically, yearly cumulative precipitation in some regions can vary by 100-150 mm across reanalyses. This creates problems for those modeling snow depth on sea ice, specifically for use in deriving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In recent years, this new Arctic has become warmer and wetter, and evaporation from the ice-free ocean has been increasing, which leads to the question: is more precipitation falling and is more of this precipitation rain? This could pose a big problem for model and remote sensing applications and studies those modeling snow accumulation because rain events will can melt the existing snow pack, reduce surface albedo, and modify the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux via snow densification. In this work we compare precipitation (both snow and rain) from 8 different reanalysis: MERRA, MERRA2, NCEP-R1, NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, ERA-5, ASR and JRA-55. We examine the annual, seasonal, and regional differences and compare with buoy data to assess discrepancies between products during observed snowfall and rainfall events. Magnitudes and frequencies of these precipitation events are evaluated, as well as the "residual drizzle" between reanalyzes. Lastly, we will look at whether the frequency and magnitude of "rainy days" in the Arctic have been changing over recent decades.

  17. Comprehensive graphical presentation of data from incurred sample reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudzki, Piotr J; Biecek, Przemysław; Kaza, Michał

    2017-06-01

    Incurred sample reanalysis (ISR) contributes to the reliability of pharmacokinetic studies. Despite regulatory guidelines having adopted ISR methodology, graphical presentation of data has been overlooked. Different graphs were tested for datasets including limited, standard and large numbers of ISR pairs. The datasets covered both passed and failed cases. We have developed a combination of complementary plots enabling the visual inspection of ISR data quality: %difference versus mean concentration and cumulative ISR plot. The former shows individual ISR datapoints and concentration-dependent trends, while the latter presents the contribution of individual pairs to the overall result as well as time-dependent trends. The proposed visualization of ISR data shows at a glance whether acceptance criteria for each sample and whole experiment are met or not. Standardized graphical presentation of ISR outcomes may increase quality of bioanalytical data.

  18. On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Kennedy, John; Dee, Dick; Allan, R.; O'Neill, Alan

    2013-01-01

    The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

  19. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

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    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  20. Modeling Regional Climate Responses to 17th-20th Century Land Use Change over the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alder, J. R.; Hostetler, S. W.; Reker, R. R.; Loveland, T. R.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Thompson, R.; Sundquist, E. T.; Willard, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    Regional climate change is the combined response to global and regional radiative forcing, circulation and interactions between the atmosphere and Earth surface. A potentially key component of regional climate change derives from natural and human-caused land use and land-use change (LULC) and related atmosphere-surface feedbacks. In the first step of disentangling and quantifying the effect of LULC over the southeastern United States, we conducted a series of simulations with the RegCM4 regional climate model which includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) surface physics package. Land use and vegetation types determine the specified values of a number of biophysical and physical parameters in BATS such as albedo, roughness length, stomatal resistance, and rooting depth. We ran four simulations in which we specified BATS land use types derived from harmonized reconstructions for 1650, 1850, 1920 and Landsat-based observations for 1992 (Steyaert and Knox, 2008). The simulations were run over a model domain comprising a 20 km × 20 km horizontal grid and 23 atmospheric levels for the period 1990-2000. The boundary conditions for the simulations were derived from the NCAR-NCEP Reanalysis and the NOAA Optimum Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature global data sets. Depending on the time periods considered, the simulations indicate regionally coherent patterns of April-September changes in surface radiation, warming and cooling of up to 2 °C or more, substantial changes in soil moisture and atmospheric humidity associated with conversion of native vegetation to agriculture and agriculture back to forest, draining of wetlands and marshes, and urbanization. Extensive draining of wetlands in the lower Mississippi Valley during the 20th century induced a robust feedback with the atmosphere which suppressed convective summertime precipitation. Our joint analysis of LULC classes and the model simulations suggests a need to be able to disaggregate land use to a

  1. Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

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    Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

    2017-12-01

    With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

  2. How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, F. R.; Lu, H.-I.

    2004-01-01

    One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended

  3. A 4D Variational Reanalysis of the Bering Sea Circulation in 2007-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaremchuk, M.; Panteleev, G.; Francis, O. P.; Stabeno, P. J.; Weingartner, T.; Zhang, J.

    2016-02-01

    A two-way nested 4d-variational data assimilation system is implementedin the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) to investigate changes in circulation andthermodynamic state for a 3.8-year period. Assimilated observations includedata from 19 moorings deployed on the shelf and in the Bering Strait, 1705hydrographic stations occupied during eight surveys, and remotely sensedsea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) data. Validation ofthe presented 4dVar reanalysis against the output of two sequential data-assimilative systems (the Bering Ecosystem Study ice-ocean Modeling andAssimilation System (BESTMAS) and the Arctic Cap Nowcast-ForecastSystem (ACNFS)) has shown that the product is more consistent with theobserved transports in the Bering Strait and in the EBS interior both interms of their magnitude and time variability.Analysis of the data-optimized solution quantifies a sequence of wind-forced events that resulted in the anomalous heat and freshwater transportsthrough the Bering Strait, including a 28-day long flow reversal that occurredin November of 2009 and carried Siberian Coastal Current water as far asthe Gulf of Anadyr. Lagrangian study of the Arctic-bound Pacific watersindicates the extreme importance of the cross-shelf exchange along the pathof the Bering Slope Current and quantifies the spectrum of residence timesfor the waters entering EBS through Unimak Pass and through Aleutianpassages. Residence times in the EBS cold pool are diagnosed to be 2-3times longer than those in the surrounding waters.

  4. Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis

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    S. Brönnimann

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1 kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2 ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011 that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures. In cruise (1, the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2, after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1 and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2 are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the

  5. Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

    2017-04-01

    A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

  6. Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

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    Anja T. Westermayer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The relations between lightning occurrence over Europe from the EUCLID network (2008–2013 and parameters derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data were studied to increase the understanding of the conditions under which thunderstorms form. The objective was to identify relevant factors beyond instability and convective inhibition, in order to better model thunderstorms using numerical weather prediction or climate model data. It was found that latent instability is only required up to a certain amount of approximately 200–400 J kg-1 CAPE. For higher values of CAPE (~800$\\sim800$–2800 J kg-1, the relative frequency of lightning is rather constant. Relative humidity in the low to mid-troposphere has a major influence on storm occurrence with low relative humidity strongly suppressing thunderstorm development. For an average 850–500 hPa relative humidity below 50 %, the frequency of lightning decreases to below 15 %, even when CIN is negligible and CAPE sufficient. A subtle dependency on wind shear was found in which two regimes of higher frequency of lightning were identified. For very weak and for high shear the probability was higher than for intermediate values of both deep-layer and low-level shear.

  7. Reanalysis of "Raptorex kriegsteini": a juvenile tyrannosaurid dinosaur from Mongolia.

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    Denver W Fowler

    Full Text Available The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18 derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size.

  8. Reanalysis of "Raptorex kriegsteini": a juvenile tyrannosaurid dinosaur from Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Denver W; Woodward, Holly N; Freedman, Elizabeth A; Larson, Peter L; Horner, John R

    2011-01-01

    The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18) derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size.

  9. Shared probe design and existing microarray reanalysis using PICKY

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    Chou Hui-Hsien

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large genomes contain families of highly similar genes that cannot be individually identified by microarray probes. This limitation is due to thermodynamic restrictions and cannot be resolved by any computational method. Since gene annotations are updated more frequently than microarrays, another common issue facing microarray users is that existing microarrays must be routinely reanalyzed to determine probes that are still useful with respect to the updated annotations. Results PICKY 2.0 can design shared probes for sets of genes that cannot be individually identified using unique probes. PICKY 2.0 uses novel algorithms to track sharable regions among genes and to strictly distinguish them from other highly similar but nontarget regions during thermodynamic comparisons. Therefore, PICKY does not sacrifice the quality of shared probes when choosing them. The latest PICKY 2.1 includes the new capability to reanalyze existing microarray probes against updated gene sets to determine probes that are still valid to use. In addition, more precise nonlinear salt effect estimates and other improvements are added, making PICKY 2.1 more versatile to microarray users. Conclusions Shared probes allow expressed gene family members to be detected; this capability is generally more desirable than not knowing anything about these genes. Shared probes also enable the design of cross-genome microarrays, which facilitate multiple species identification in environmental samples. The new nonlinear salt effect calculation significantly increases the precision of probes at a lower buffer salt concentration, and the probe reanalysis function improves existing microarray result interpretations.

  10. Validation and uncertainty analysis for monthly and extreme precipitation in the ERA-20C reanalysis based on the WZN in-situ measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustemeier, Elke; Ziese, Markus; Raykova, Kristin; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Schneider, Udo; Finger, Peter; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The proper representation of precipitation, in particular extreme precipitation, in global reanalyses is still challenging. This paper focuses on the potential of the ERA-20C centennial reanalysis to reproduce precipitation events. The global ERA-20C Reanalysis has been developed within the projects ERA-CLIM and its successor ERA-CLIM2 with the aim of a multi-decadal reanalysis of the global climate system. One of the objectives of ERA-CLIM2 is to provide useful information about the uncertainty of the various parameters. Since precipitation is a prognostic variable, it allows for independent validation by in-situ measurements. For this purpose, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) operated by the DWD has compared the ERA-20C Reanalysis with the GPCC observational products "Full Data Monthly Version 7" (FDM-V7) and "Full Data Daily Version 1" (FDD-V1). ERA-20C is based on the ECMWF prediction model IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of approximately 125 km and covers the 111 years from 1900 to 2010. The GPCC FDM-V7 raster data product, on the other hand, includes the global land surface in-situ measurements between 1901 and 2013 (Schneider et al., 2014) and the FDD-V1 raster data product covers daily precipitation from 1988 to 2013 with daily resolution. The most suitable resolution of 1° was used to validate ERA-20C. For the spatial and temporal validation of the ERA-20C Reanalysis, global temporal scores were calculated on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. These include e.g. monthly contingency table scores, correlation or climate change indices (ETCCDI) for precipitation to determine extreme values and their temporal change (Peterson et al., 2001, Appendix A). Not surprisingly, the regions with the strongest differences are also those with data scarcity, mountain regions with their luv and lee effects or monsoon areas. They all show a strong systematic difference and breaks within the time series. Differences between ERA-20C and

  11. Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

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    H. K. A. Singh

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0–2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

  12. Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

    2018-02-01

    The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

  13. Examination of Satellite and Model Reanalysis Precipitation with Climate Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, T. F.; Houser, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of satellite and model reanalysis precipitation with climate oscillations. Specifically, we examine and compare the relationship between the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) in regards to four climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, the Southern Annular Mode and Solar Activity. This analysis covers a 35-year observation period from 1980 through 2015. We ask two questions: How is global and regional precipitation changing over the observation period, and how are global and regional variations in precipitation related to global climate variation? We explore and compare global and regional precipitation trends between the two data sets. To do this, we constructed a total of 56 Regions of Interest (ROI). Nineteen of the ROIs were focused on geographic regions including continents, ocean basins, and marginal seas. Twelve ROIs examine hemispheric processes. The remaining 26 regions are derived from spatial-temporal classification analysis of GPCP data over a ten-year period (2001-2010). These regions include the primary wet and dry monsoon regions, regions influenced by western boundary currents, and orography. We investigate and interpret the monthly, seasonal and yearly global and regional response to the selected climate indices. Initial results indicate that no correlation exist between the GPCP data and Merra-2 data. Preliminary qualitative assessment between GCPC and solar activity suggest a possible relationship in intra-annual variability. This work is performed under the State of the Global Water and Energy Cycle (SWEC) project, a NASA-sponsored program in support of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS).

  14. Airborne Characterization of the 2003 North American Electrical Blackout: Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marufu, L.; Piety, C.; Bloomer, B.; Doddridge, B.; Stehr, J.; Dickerson, R.

    2006-05-01

    Airborne observations over central Pennsylvania on August 15, 2003, about 24 hrs into one of the largest North American electrical blackouts, revealed significant reductions in SO2, O3, and light scattered by particles, relative to measurements outside the blackout region and over the same location on a synoptically similar day the year before (August 4, 2002). CO and light absorbing particles were unaffected; the single scattering albedo during the blackout was 0.85. Reported SO2 and NOx emissions from upwind power plants were reduced to 34 and 20% of normal. The substantial improvement in air quality during the blackout suggested that transport of emissions from power plants hundreds of km upwind can play a dominant role in levels of O3 and haze over eastern North America. In this paper we report on the outcome of a follow up study that aimed at further testing the above conclusion. This study involved; 1) flying additional control cases, i.e., repeating the blackout flights over central PA under similar weather conditions, 2) inclusion of more control day (August 4, 2002) aircraft measurements over central PA in the comparisons, and 3) comparison of aircraft measurements to the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with appropriate emissions. Reanalysis of the blackout observations against additional information from this study confirmed the initial conclusion that long- range transport of emissions from up-wind power plants contribute substantially to the pollution experienced over eastern North America. Model output and the larger data set of control cases show that ozone was reduced by roughly 25%, SO2 by a factor of 2-4, and scattering by aerosols by a factor of 2.

  15. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

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    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  16. Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

    2002-02-01

    Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

  17. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

    2018-04-01

    Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

  18. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

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    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  19. A Comparison of Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Track Climatology and Interannual Variability in Coarse-Gridded Reanalysis Datasets

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Timothy Paul; Gottschalck, Jon

    2013-01-01

    Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclones have received less study than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. Generating SH cyclone tracks from global reanalysis datasets is problematic due to data reliability, especially prior to 1979. It is therefore prudent to compare the climatology and variability of SH cyclone tracks from different reanalysis datasets. We generate cyclone track frequency and intensity climatologies from three reanalysis datasets: The National Center for Env...

  20. Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cássia Pianca

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007 obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1, Southeast (W2, Central (W3, East (W4, Northeast (W5 and North (W6. W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.O presente trabalho apresenta o clima de ondas da região ao largo da costa brasileira com base em uma série temporal de onze anos (Jan/1997-Dez/2007 obtida através de dados de reanálise do modelo operacional NWW3. Informações sobre o regime de ondas no Brasil são escassas e baseadas em observações ocasionais de curto período, sendo a presente análise inédita na escala espaço-temporal apresentada. Para a definição do clima de ondas foram definidos e analisados seis setores ao longo da quebra da plataforma continental brasileira: Sul (W1, Sudeste (W2, Central (W3, Leste (W4, Nordeste (W5 e Norte

  1. The history and transitent nature of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea from advanced reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinardi, Nadia; Fratianni, Claudia; Lyubartsev, Vladyslav

    2015-04-01

    Long term, high resolution re-analyses of the Mediterranean Sea circulation and thermohaline structure are now available from the NextData and MyOcean projects. The first is a 60 years re-analysis (1953-2012) done with atmospheric AMIP forcing and the second is 25 years re-analysis (1987-2012) done with ECMWF atmospheric forcing re-analysis. Both concur to have a representation of the longest time series of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, the highest space-time reconstruction ever done for the whole basin. The salinity anomalies of the Mediterranean Sea below seven hundred meters of the past 60 years are examined in comparison with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, a phenomenon Dr. A.Hecht contributed to discover during POEM. Deep water salinity changes and Gibraltar Strait anomalies are also examined in the light of possible feedback mechanisms, as well as the structure and correlation of such salinity anomalies with atmospheric forcing.

  2. Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

  3. Reanalysis of the 1893 heat wave in France through offline data assimilation in a downscaled ensemble meteorological reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devers, Alexandre; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Lauvernet, Claire; Graff, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of historical French weather has recently been improved through the development of the SCOPE (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended) Climate reconstruction, a probabilistic high-resolution daily reconstruction of precipitation and temperature covering the period 1871-2012 and based on the statistical downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (Caillouet et al., 2016). However, historical surface observations - even though rather scarce and sparse - do exist from at least the beginning of the period considered, and this information does not currently feed SCOPE Climate reconstructions. The goal of this study is therefore to assimilate these historical observations into SCOPE Climate reconstructions in order to build a 150-year meteorological reanalysis over France. This study considers "offline" data assimilation methods - Kalman filtering methods like the Ensemble Square Root Filter - that have successfully been used in recent paleoclimate studies, i.e. at much larger temporal and spatial scales (see e.g. Bhend et al., 2012). These methods are here applied for reconstructing the 8-24 August 1893 heat wave in France, using all available daily temperature observations from that period. Temperatures reached that summer were indeed compared at the time to those of Senegal (Garnier, 2012). Results show a spatially coherent view of the heat wave at the national scale as well as a reduced uncertainty compared to initial meteorological reconstructions, thus demonstrating the added value of data assimilation. In order to assess the performance of assimilation methods in a more recent context, these methods are also used to reconstruct the well-known 3-14 August 2003 heat wave by using (1) all available stations, and (2) the same station density as in August 1893, the rest of the observations being saved for validation. This analysis allows comparing two heat waves having occurred 100 years apart in France with different associated uncertainties, in

  4. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008–2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080984

  5. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

    2016-12-05

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  6. The MACC reanalysis: an 8 yr data set of atmospheric composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a horizontal resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gas analysis fields to document the data set and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozonesondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most seasons and regions. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozonesondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area-averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi-sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in northern and southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with

  7. Detection and Attribution of Precipitation Extremes over China using Gauge Observations, Reanalysis Products and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Wang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation characteristics have undergone notable changes over the past several decades (IPCC 2013) and their extremes at subdaily, seasonal to decadal timescales should be associated with severe impacts such as drought and flooding. Using gauge observations, reanalysis and model simulation of precipitation, we did a systematic detection and attribution for multi-graded precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2014 over China. (1) We found subdaily precipitation characteristics exhibit an asymmetrical long-term trends, i.e., the long-time decreasing (increasing) trend in nighttime precipitation frequency (intensity) is significantly greater than that in daytime precipitation frequency (intensity) from 1979 to 2014 over China, despite of no significant change in precipitation amount. (2) We examined the eight current reanalysis products and pointed out that the JRA-55 roughly capture this trend pattern in precipitation intensity but still have considerable room for improvement. (3) We put forward a novel method to quantify the precipitation scalings with long-term warming trend and interannual-decadal variation of surface air temperature from 1979 to 2014 over China. In this method, we successfully isolated the dynamic and thermodynamic effect on precipitation scaling and further reconciled a seemingly contradiction on existing reports. (4) Combining the observed with modeled precipitation from CMIP5 and HadGEM3-A-based attribution system, we separated the impact of global warming and El Niño on increasing probability of the occurrence of such events as the July 2016 flood-induced extreme precipitation over China's Wuhan. These results have been published in Journal of Climate and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

  8. An 8-year, high-resolution reanalysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, B.; Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

    2017-12-01

    This talk presents an overview of results from the GEOS-Carb reanalysis of retrievals of average-column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite missions. The reanalysis is a Level 3 (L3) product: a collection of 3D fields of carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios every 6 hours beginning in April 2009 going until the present on a grid with a 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels from the surface to 0.01 hPa. Using an assimilation methodology based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), the L3 fields are weighted averages of the two satellite retrievals and predictions from the GEOS general circulation model driven by assimilated meteorology from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). In places and times where there are a dense number of soundings, the observations dominate the predicted mixing ratios, while the model is used to fill in locations with fewer soundings, e.g., high latitudes and the Amazon. Blending the satellite observations with model predictions has at least two notable benefits. First, it provides a bridge for evaluating the satellite retrievals and their uncertainties against a heterogeneous collection of observations including those from surface sites, towers, aircraft, and soundings from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Extensive evaluations of the L3 reanalysis clearly demonstrate both the strength and the deficiency of the satellite retrievals. Second, it is possible to estimate variables from the reanalysis without introducing bias due to spatiotemporal variability in sounding coverage. For example, the assimilated product provides robust estimates of the monthly CO2 global growth rate. These monthly growth rate estimates show significant differences from estimates based on in situ observations, which have sparse coverage

  9. Complementizer Agreement in Modern Varieties of West Germanic: A Model of Reanalysis and Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousquette, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of Complementizer Agreement (C-agr) in modern dialects of West Germanic from a diachronic perspective, attributing the rise and development of C-agr to the initiation and progression of a Linguistic Cycle specific to C-agr. Approached as a historical process of reanalysis and compensatory renewal…

  10. The Use of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

    1999-01-01

    An important component of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind resource assessment methodology is the use of available upper-air data to construct detailed vertical profiles for a study region. Currently, the most useful upper-air data for this type of analysis are archived observations from approximately 1800 rawinsonde and pilot balloon stations worldwide. However, significant uncertainty exists in the accuracy of the constructed profiles for many regions. The United States Reanalysis Data Set, recently created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, has the potential to improve the quality of the vertical profiles. The initial evaluation of the usefulness of the Reanalysis data for wind resource assessment consisted of contrasting reanalysis-derived vertical profiles of the wind characteristics to those generated from upper-air observations for comparable locations. The results indicate that, while reanalysis data can be substituted for upper-air observation data in the assessment methodology for areas of the world where observation data are limited, enough discrepancies with observation data have been noticed to warrant further studies

  11. Equalizing effects of the wind energy production in Northern Europe determined from reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor

    2000-01-01

    The wind energy resource of Northern Europe is spread out over a geographically large area. This helps the utilities to integrate wind energy into their grids, since the generation is less variable, when it is combined from a larger area. The analysis wasdone based on 34 years of Reanalysis data...

  12. Dissociating retrieval interference and reanalysis in the P600 during sentence comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Darren; Grey, Sarah; van Hell, Janet G

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the relative independence of two key processes in language comprehension, as reflected in the P600 ERP component. Numerous studies have linked the P600 to sentence- or message-level reanalysis; however, much research has shown that skilled, cue-based memory retrieval operations are also important to successful language processing. Our goal was to identify whether these cue-based retrieval operations are part of the reanalysis processes indexed by the P600. To this end, participants read sentences that were either grammatical or ungrammatical via subject-verb agreement violations, and in which there was either no possibility for retrieval interference or there was an attractor noun interfering with the computation of subject-verb agreement (e.g., "The slogan on the political poster(s) was/were …"). A stimulus onset asynchrony manipulation (fast, medium, or slow presentation rate) was designed to modulate participants' ability to engage in reanalysis processes. Results showed a reliable attraction interference effect, indexed by reduced behavioral sensitivity to ungrammaticalities and P600 amplitudes when there was an opportunity for retrieval interference, as well as an effect of presentation rate, with reduced behavioral sensitivity and smaller P600 effects at faster presentation rates. Importantly, there was no interaction between the two, suggesting that retrieval interference and sentence-level reanalysis processes indexed by the P600 can be neurocognitively distinct processes. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  13. Skill and global trend analysis of soil moisture from reanalysis and microwave remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.A.; Reichle, R.H.; Balsamo, G.; de Rosnay, P.; Munoz-Sabater, J.; Isaksen, I; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.W.

    2014-01-01

    In situ soil moisture measurements from 2007 to 2010 for 196 stations from five networks across the world (United States, France, Spain, China, and Australia) are used to determine the reliability of three soil moisture products: (i) a revised version of the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim;

  14. Impact of different reanalysis data on WRF dynamical downscaling over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Danlian; Gao, Shibo

    2018-02-01

    High-resolution simulations were conducted over China during 2000-2014 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Final Analysis (FNL) and ERA-interim reanalysis data. ERA-interim showed better agreement with observed temperature and precipitation than FNL. In general, WRF downscaling resulted in a more reliable spatial distribution of temperature than FNL, but not better than ERA-interim. For precipitation, ERA-interim performed the best, while WRF produced a wet bias in southeastern and southwestern China. A better spatial distribution and annual cycle were achieved by WRF in most of the subregions compared with FNL. In the simulation of extreme precipitation, WRF captured the main features of the extreme indices, and the spatial pattern correlations were higher than those for FNL. The simulation of precipitation and extreme precipitation was sensitive to the different reanalysis data boundaries, where significant differences occurred. The precipitation and extreme precipitation of WRF forced by ERA-interim were relatively better than those forced by FNL. This suggests a positive influence of the lateral boundary conditions of ERI in improving the WRF dynamical downscaling capabilities. However, compared with the reanalysis data itself, the improvements in the WRF simulation forced by FNL were more obvious than those forced by ERA-interim. This indicates that greater improvements can be made to the downscaling skill of the WRF forced by the FNL reanalysis data than to that forced by the ERA-interim data.

  15. Can reanalysis datasets describe the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jian; Huang, Dan-Qing; Yan, Pei-Wen; Huang, Ying; Kuang, Xue-Yuan

    2017-10-01

    The persistent temperature and precipitation extremes may bring damage to the economy and human due to their intensity, duration and areal coverage. Understanding the quality of reanalysis datasets in descripting these extreme events is important for detection, attribution and model evaluation. In this study, the performances of two reanalysis datasets [the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and Interim ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim)] in reproducing the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes in China are evaluated. For the persistent temperature extremes, the two datasets can better capture the intensity indices than the frequency indices. The increasing/decreasing trend of persistent warm/cold extremes has been reasonably detected by the two datasets, particularly in the northern part of China. The ERA-Interim better reproduces the climatology and tendency of persistent warm extremes, while the 20CR has better skill to depict the persistent cold extremes. For the persistent precipitation extremes, the two datasets have the ability to reproduce the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation. The two datasets largely underestimate the maximum consecutive dry days over the northern part of China, while overestimate the maximum consecutive wet days over the southern part of China. For the response of the precipitation extremes against the temperature variations, the ERA-Interim has good ability to depict the relationship among persistent precipitation extremes, local persistent temperature extremes, and global temperature variations over specific regions.

  16. Re-Analysis of QPO in 3C 273 Light Curve P. Mohan1,∗ , A ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    c Indian Academy of Sciences. Re-Analysis of QPO in 3C 273 Light Curve. P. Mohan1,∗. , A. Mangalam1, Hum Chand2 & Alok C. Gupta2. 1Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Sarjapur Road, Koramangala, Bangalore 560 034, India. 2Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES), Nainital 263 129, India. ∗.

  17. Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

    2018-01-01

    Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context

  18. Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2017-12-01

    Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to

  19. Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Colarco

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI aerosol index (AI product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero. Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

  20. Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colarco, Peter R.; Gassó, Santiago; Ahn, Changwoo; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Torres, Omar

    2017-11-01

    We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV) is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

  1. Winter atmospheric circulation over Europe and the North Atlantic: an intercomparison of reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

    2016-04-01

    Research on atmospheric circulation has been quite common lately and includes e.g. analyses of circulation properties and trends in both reanalysis datasets and circulation model outputs. In many cases, however, studies have been restricted to only one set of data and only one research method. The goal of our present work is to compare the properties of winter European atmospheric circulation in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, JRA-55, ERA-20C, and 20CRv2) over 1961-2000. The main research method we use is an automated circulation classification. In order to bring robust results, however, eight distinct circulation type calendars are defined based on the reanalysed daily mean sea level pressure patterns, for each of the reanalyses and over the total of eight European domains. Subsequently, basic properties of these calendars are computed and compared. Lastly, we show how results of GCM validation can vary if different reanalyses are taken as a benchmark.

  2. Re-analysis of fatigue data for welded joints using the notch stress approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mikkel Melters; Mouritsen, Ole Ø.; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2010-01-01

    Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently, there ......-welded joints agree quite well with the FAT 225 curve; however a reduction to FAT 200 is suggested in order to achieve approximately the same safety as observed in the nominal stress approach.......Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently...

  3. Validation of three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervantes-Villa, Juan Sebastian; Shprits, Yuri Y.

    2017-04-01

    Satellite observations are often incomplete and inaccurate and may have only limited spatial coverage. However, through data assimilation they can be blended with information from physics-based models, in order to fill gaps and lead to a better understanding of the underlying dynamical processes. Data assimilation methods have been extensively used to analyze and predict meteorological, oceanographic, and climate processes. With the advent of space-borne observational data and the development of more sophisticated space-physics models, dynamical processes in the Earth's radiation belts can be analyzed and assessed using data assimilation methods. In this study, reanalysis of radiation belt electrons is achieved through data assimilation of Van Allen Probes mission and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite with the 3D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt using a split-operator Kalman filter technique. Results are statistically validated for several field models and boundary conditions. Sensitivity of the reanalysis electron flux to available spacecraft data is also assessed.

  4. Development and evaluation of a high-resolution reanalysis of the East Australian Current region using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerry, Colette; Powell, Brian; Roughan, Moninya; Oke, Peter

    2016-10-01

    As with other Western Boundary Currents globally, the East Australian Current (EAC) is highly variable making it a challenge to model and predict. For the EAC region, we combine a high-resolution state-of-the-art numerical ocean model with a variety of traditional and newly available observations using an advanced variational data assimilation scheme. The numerical model is configured using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and takes boundary forcing from the BlueLink ReANalysis (BRAN3). For the data assimilation, we use an Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) scheme, which uses the model dynamics to perturb the initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions, such that the modelled ocean state better fits and is in balance with the observations. This paper describes the data assimilative model configuration that achieves a significant reduction of the difference between the modelled solution and the observations to give a dynamically consistent "best estimate" of the ocean state over a 2-year period. The reanalysis is shown to represent both assimilated and non-assimilated observations well. It achieves mean spatially averaged root mean squared (rms) residuals with the observations of 7.6 cm for sea surface height (SSH) and 0.4 °C for sea surface temperature (SST) over the assimilation period. The time-mean rms residual for subsurface temperature measured by Argo floats is a maximum of 0.9 °C between water depths of 100 and 300 m and smaller throughout the rest of the water column. Velocities at several offshore and continental shelf moorings are well represented in the reanalysis with complex correlations between 0.8 and 1 for all observations in the upper 500 m. Surface radial velocities from a high-frequency radar array are assimilated and the reanalysis provides surface velocity estimates with complex correlations with observed velocities of 0.8-1 across the radar footprint. A comparison with

  5. The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vanhove

    Full Text Available In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

  6. Evaluation of river discharges from ensemble global water resources reanalysis in the Upper Blue Nile basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belay, Haileyesus; Moges, Semu; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil

    2017-04-01

    The increased capacity of observational datasets, both from in-situ and remote sensors, along with the continuous advancements in earth system models and data assimilation algorithms, have led to the generation of a number of water resources reanalysis products that are available at global scale and high spatial and temporal resolution. These products hold a great potential for studies and applications related to water resources but their level of accuracy and range of uncertainty needs to be investigated and understood. In this work, we analyze and evaluate the runoff estimates from a multi-model global water resources reanalysis (WRR) dataset that was recently produced within the framework of Earth2Observe project (http: //www.earth2observe.eu). Evaluation of the WRR reanalysis is based on the comparison of streamflows derived from the ensemble WRR and available in situ observations for a range of basin scales in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Analysis is carried out for different runoff properties (e.g. volume, maximum flows, duration curves) and for different temporal scales (daily, seasonal, annual) in order to evaluate the ability of WRR-based runoff estimates to represent various runoff characteristics. Results clearly indicate that the basin area and temporal scale are the most important controls on the performance of WRR streamflow simulations. Furthermore, results allow providing recommendations on application-specific use of WRR products and discussing potential bias correction techniques for improving river streamflow simulations.

  7. The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanhove, Jan

    2013-01-01

    In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph) holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical) tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression) by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

  8. Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

  9. Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. L. Manney

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The representation of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric (UTLS jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex, and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis, JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution – for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in

  10. An Empirical Orthogonal Function Reanalysis of the Northern Polar External and Induced Magnetic Field During Solar Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shore, R. M.; Freeman, M. P.; Gjerloev, J. W.

    2018-01-01

    We apply the method of data-interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to ground-based magnetic vector data from the SuperMAG archive to produce a series of month length reanalyses of the surface external and induced magnetic field (SEIMF) in 110,000 km2 equal-area bins over the entire northern polar region at 5 min cadence over solar cycle 23, from 1997.0 to 2009.0. Each EOF reanalysis also decomposes the measured SEIMF variation into a hierarchy of spatiotemporal patterns which are ordered by their contribution to the monthly magnetic field variance. We find that the leading EOF patterns can each be (subjectively) interpreted as well-known SEIMF systems or their equivalent current systems. The relationship of the equivalent currents to the true current flow is not investigated. We track the leading SEIMF or equivalent current systems of similar type by intermonthly spatial correlation and apply graph theory to (objectively) group their appearance and relative importance throughout a solar cycle, revealing seasonal and solar cycle variation. In this way, we identify the spatiotemporal patterns that maximally contribute to SEIMF variability over a solar cycle. We propose this combination of EOF and graph theory as a powerful method for objectively defining and investigating the structure and variability of the SEIMF or their equivalent ionospheric currents for use in both geomagnetism and space weather applications. It is demonstrated here on solar cycle 23 but is extendable to any epoch with sufficient data coverage.

  11. Diesel motor exhaust and lung cancer mortality: reanalysis of a cohort study in potash miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möhner, Matthias; Kersten, Norbert; Gellissen, Johannes

    2013-02-01

    The aim of the reanalysis is to reassess lung cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to diesel motor exhaust in potash miners, while controlling for potential confounders such as smoking and previous occupational history. Our investigation is based on a cohort study of nearly 6,000 German potash miners, who were followed up from 1970 to 2001. The reanalysis also takes into account the employment periods before potash mining, in particular uranium mining. Different approaches (nested case-control study and Cox model) were used to adjust for confounding. The exposure estimates were recalculated, lagging the exposure by 5 years. Exposure groups were defined by tertiles of cumulative respirable elemental carbon (REC) exposure estimates and occupational categories, where exposure was estimated originally by representative measurements of total carbon for different occupations. The highest REC concentration was measured for production workers, about twice as much as for other occupations. The reanalysis revealed that while about 4 % of all study subjects had worked earlier in uranium mines, 10.3 % of later lung cancer cases did so. Although their absolute number was small, the corresponding relative risk estimator was significantly elevated. Our analysis did not show any notable association between cumulative REC exposure and lung cancer risk. Introducing cumulative REC exposure as a continuous variable into the conditional logistic regression model yielded an odds ratio of OR = 1.04 [0.70-1.53]95 % adjusted for smoking and previous employment. The study results give no evidence for an association between REC exposure and lung cancer risk. Only for very high cumulative dose, corresponding to at least 20 years of exposure in the production area, some weak hints for a possible risk increase could be detected. The study underlines the importance of assessing the entire occupational history in occupational studies, especially if the supposed dose

  12. Nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea - results from a 30-year physical-biogeochemical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ye; Meier, H. E. Markus; Eilola, Kari

    2017-04-01

    Long-term oxygen and nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea are reconstructed using the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). Two simulations with and without data assimilation covering the period 1970-1999 are carried out. Here, the weakly coupled scheme with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) method is adopted to assimilate observed profiles in the reanalysis system. The reanalysis shows considerable improvement in the simulation of both oxygen and nutrient concentrations relative to the free run. Further, the results suggest that the assimilation of biogeochemical observations has a significant effect on the simulation of the oxygen-dependent dynamics of biogeochemical cycles. From the reanalysis, nutrient transports between sub-basins, between the coastal zone and the open sea, and across latitudinal and longitudinal cross sections are calculated. Further, the spatial distributions of regions with nutrient import or export are examined. Our results emphasize the important role of the Baltic proper for the entire Baltic Sea, with large net transport (export minus import) of nutrients from the Baltic proper into the surrounding sub-basins (except the net phosphorus import from the Gulf of Riga and the net nitrogen import from the Gulf of Riga and Danish Straits). In agreement with previous studies, we found that the Bothnian Sea imports large amounts of phosphorus from the Baltic proper that are retained in this sub-basin. For the calculation of sub-basin budgets, the location of the lateral borders of the sub-basins is crucial, because net transports may change sign with the location of the border. Although the overall transport patterns resemble the results of previous studies, our calculated estimates differ in detail considerably.

  13. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-09-25

    The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

  14. Inferring the Relative Quality of Reanalysis Data from a Historical Reforecast Using a Vorticity Equation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros, C. A.; Herrmann, M.; Huang, H.

    2011-12-01

    The improvement of numerical weather prediction models in recent decades has led to a measurable decrease in forecast error, for instance as quantified by the 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation. This improvement can be attributed in part to the refinements in the numerical architecture and the representation of physical processes in the model. It is more difficult to attribute the reduction in forecast error to improvements in the accuracy of the models' initial conditions, not least because of the complexity of the data assimilation process. As a contribution to this problem that will also be pedagogically useful, a reforecast experiment was conducted using a simple regional vorticity equation model for the 500-hPa flow over North America. This model is comparable in complexity to the Charney-Fjörtoft-von Neumann model used for the first numerical weather prediction experiment in 1949. Six-hourly predictions are made out to 36 hours for the period from 1948-2010, using the NCEP Reanalysis dataset for the initial conditions. Because initialization is trivial for this "filtered" model, one can clearly attribute the change in forecast skill to the changing quality of the initial state. The choice of the 500 hPa level is relevant since it will reflect the effect of the significant change in the density of upper-air observations from the mid- to late 20th Century. As an important byproduct of this exercise, a trend of improved forecast over time will imply an improved relative quality of the reanalysis data for the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the experiment serves two purposes of studying the forecast error and checking the quality of the reanalysis. An analysis of selected cases indicates that the predictions made for the 21st century have smaller errors compared to those made for the 1950s. A comprehensive analysis for the whole set of forecast is underway and the outcome will be discussed.

  15. SST algorithms in ACSPO reanalysis of AVHRR GAC data from 2002-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, B.; Ignatov, A.; Kihai, Y.; Zhou, X.; Stroup, J.

    2014-05-01

    In response to a request from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Program, NOAA SST Team initiated reprocessing of 4 km resolution GAC data from AVHRRs flown onboard NOAA and MetOp satellites. The objective is to create a longterm Level 2 Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) SST product, consistent with NOAA operations. ACSPO-Reanalysis (RAN) is used as input in the NOAA geo-polar blended Level 4 SST and potentially other Level 4 SST products. In the first stage of reprocessing (reanalysis 1, or RAN1), data from NOAA-15, -16, -17, -18, -19, and Metop-A and -B, from 2002-present have been processed with ACSPO v2.20, and matched up with quality controlled in situ data from in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam) version 1. The ~12 years time series of matchups were used to develop and explore the SST retrieval algorithms, with emphasis on minimizing spatial biases in retrieved SSTs, close reproduction of the magnitudes of true SST variations, and maximizing temporal, spatial and inter-platform stability of retrieval metrics. Two types of SST algorithms were considered: conventional SST regressions, and recently developed incremental regressions. The conventional equations were adopted in the EUMETSAT OSI-SAF formulation, which, according to our previous analyses, provide relatively small regional biases and well-balanced combination of precision and sensitivity, in its class. Incremental regression equations were specifically elaborated to automatically correct for model minus observation biases, always present when RTM simulations are employed. Improved temporal stability was achieved by recalculation of SST coefficients from matchups on a daily basis, with a +/-45 day window around the current date. This presentation describes the candidate SST algorithms considered for the next round of ACSPO reanalysis, RAN2.

  16. Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bedia

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

    In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

    As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

  17. Application of the spectral correction method to reanalysis data in South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries C.

    2014-01-01

    of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the method to the relevant region. The impacts from the two aspects are investigated for interior and coastal locations. Measurements from five stations from South Africa are used to evaluate the results from the spectral model S(f)=af−5/3 together...... with the hourly time series of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) 10 m wind at 38 km resolution over South Africa. The results show that using the spectral correction method to the CFSR wind data produce extreme wind atlases in acceptable agreement with the atlas made from limited measurements across...

  18. A Comparison of Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Track Climatology and Interannual Variability in Coarse-Gridded Reanalysis Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Paul Eichler

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Southern Hemisphere (SH extratropical cyclones have received less study than their Northern Hemisphere (NH counterparts. Generating SH cyclone tracks from global reanalysis datasets is problematic due to data reliability, especially prior to 1979. It is therefore prudent to compare the climatology and variability of SH cyclone tracks from different reanalysis datasets. We generate cyclone track frequency and intensity climatologies from three reanalysis datasets: The National Center for Environmental Prediction’s Reanalysis I and Reanalysis II datasets and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ERA-40 dataset. Our results show that ERA-40 produces more intense cyclones in the SH active cyclone region compared to NCEP reanalyses. More intense storms are also found in the SH active cyclone region in NCEP reanalyses data post-1979 reflecting the positive trend in the AAO in the past few decades. When evaluating interannual variability, our results show Rossby wave trains including the Pacific South American (PSA and the East Indian Ocean pattern in response to anomalous heating linked to El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, respectively. Response to the AAO shows a robust annular structure for cyclone track frequency, but not intensity suggesting a weak relationship between cyclone frequency and cyclone intensity.

  19. Investigating a solar influence on cloud cover using the North American Regional Reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krahenbuhl Daniel Scott

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The controversial connection between cosmic rays, solar activity, and cloud cover is investigated using a climatological reconstructed reanalysis product: the North American Regional Reanalysis which provides high-resolution, low, mid-level, high, and total cloud cover data over a Lambert conformal conic projection permitting land/ocean discrimination. Pearson’s product-moment regional correlations were obtained between monthly cloud cover data and solar variability indicators, cosmic ray neutron monitors, several climatological indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, and between cloud layers. Regions of the mid-latitude oceans exhibited a positive correlation with cosmic ray flux. Additionally, this maritime low cloud cover exhibits the only failed correlation significance with other altitudes. The cross correlation reveals that cloud cover is positively correlated everywhere but for ocean low cloud cover, supporting the unique response of the marine layer. The results of this investigation suggest that with the assumption that solar forcing does impact cloud cover, measurements of solar activity exhibits a slightly higher correlation than GCRs. The only instance where GCRs exhibit a positive regional correlation with cloud cover is for maritime low clouds. The AMO exerts the greatest control of cloud cover in the NARR domain.

  20. Does tool use extend peripersonal space? A review and re-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Nicholas P

    2012-04-01

    The fascinating idea that tools become extensions of our body appears in artistic, literary, philosophical, and scientific works alike. In the last 15 years, this idea has been reframed into several related hypotheses, one of which states that tool use extends the neural representation of the multisensory space immediately surrounding the hands (variously termed peripersonal space, peri-hand space, peri-cutaneous space, action space, or near space). This and related hypotheses have been tested extensively in the cognitive neurosciences, with evidence from molecular, neurophysiological, neuroimaging, neuropsychological, and behavioural fields. Here, I briefly review the evidence for and against the hypothesis that tool use extends a neural representation of the space surrounding the hand, concentrating on neurophysiological, neuropsychological, and behavioural evidence. I then provide a re-analysis of data from six published and one unpublished experiments using the crossmodal congruency task to test this hypothesis. While the re-analysis broadly confirms the previously reported finding that tool use does not literally extend peripersonal space, the overall effect sizes are small and statistical power is low. I conclude by questioning whether the crossmodal congruency task can indeed be used to test the hypothesis that tool use modifies peripersonal space.

  1. Comprehensive reanalysis of transcription factor knockout expression data in Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals many new targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimand, Jüri; Vaquerizas, Juan M; Todd, Annabel E; Vilo, Jaak; Luscombe, Nicholas M

    2010-08-01

    Transcription factor (TF) perturbation experiments give valuable insights into gene regulation. Genome-scale evidence from microarray measurements may be used to identify regulatory interactions between TFs and targets. Recently, Hu and colleagues published a comprehensive study covering 269 TF knockout mutants for the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. However, the information that can be extracted from this valuable dataset is limited by the method employed to process the microarray data. Here, we present a reanalysis of the original data using improved statistical techniques freely available from the BioConductor project. We identify over 100,000 differentially expressed genes-nine times the total reported by Hu et al. We validate the biological significance of these genes by assessing their functions, the occurrence of upstream TF-binding sites, and the prevalence of protein-protein interactions. The reanalysed dataset outperforms the original across all measures, indicating that we have uncovered a vastly expanded list of relevant targets. In summary, this work presents a high-quality reanalysis that maximizes the information contained in the Hu et al. compendium. The dataset is available from ArrayExpress (accession: E-MTAB-109) and it will be invaluable to any scientist interested in the yeast transcriptional regulatory system.

  2. The Posterior Sustained Negativity Revisited—An SPN Reanalysis of Jacobsen and Höfel (2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Jacobsen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Symmetry is an important cue for the aesthetic judgment of beauty. Using a binary forced-choice format in a cued mixed design, Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 compared aesthetic judgments of beauty and symmetry judgments of novel graphic patterns. A late posterior sustained negativity elicited by symmetric patterns was observed in the symmetry judgment condition, but not in the beauty judgement condition. Therefore, this negativity appeared to be mainly driven by the task.In a series of studies, Bertamini, Makin, and colleagues observed a comparable sustained posterior negativity (SPN to symmetric stimuli, mainly taken to reflect obligatory symmetry processing independent of task requirements. We reanalyzed the data by Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 using similar parameters for data analysis as Bertamini, Makin, and colleagues to examine these apparent differences. The reanalysis confirmed both a task-driven effect on the posterior sustained negativity/SPN to symmetric patterns in the symmetry judgment condition and a strong symmetry-driven SPN to symmetric patterns. Differences between the references used for analyses of the electroencephalogram (EEG had an effect. Based on the reanalysis, the Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 data also fit well with Bertamini’s, Makin’s, and colleagues’ account of obligatory symmetry processing.

  3. Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We applied a Regional Climate Model (RCM to simulate precipitation and snow cover over the Himalaya, between March 2000 and December 2002. Due to its higher resolution, our model simulates a more realistic spatial variability of wind and precipitation than those of the reanalysis of the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF used as lateral boundaries. In this region, we found very large discrepancies between the estimations of precipitation provided by reanalysis, rain gauges networks, satellite observations, and our RCM simulation. Our model clearly underestimates precipitation at the foothills of the Himalaya and in its eastern part. However, our simulation provides a first estimation of liquid and solid precipitation in high altitude areas, where satellite and rain gauge networks are not very reliable. During the two years of simulation, our model resembles the snow cover extent and duration quite accurately in these areas. Both snow accumulation and snow cover duration differ widely along the Himalaya: snowfall can occur during the whole year in western Himalaya, due to both summer monsoon and mid-latitude low pressure systems bringing moisture into this region. In Central Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau, a much more marked dry season occurs from October to March. Snow cover does not have a pronounced seasonal cycle in these regions, since it depends both on the quite variable duration of the monsoon and on the rare but possible occurrence of snowfall during the extra-monsoon period.

  4. Fast variable stiffness composite cylinder uncertainty analysis by using reanalysis assisted Copula function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zeng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There are lots of uncertainties in variable-stiffness composite materials such as material properties, fibre volume fraction, geometries at various scale and matrix porosity. Commonly, these uncertainties are not always mutually independent and there exist correlations among these random input variables. These correlations may affect the output of composite significantly. To address these correlations, a novel approach for uncertainty analysis based on copula function assisted by reanalysis method is suggested. The Copula function is utilized to address the correlations of random input variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is employed to obtain the uncertainty analysis. Therefore, a large number of samples should be generated and the expensive computational cost is not feasible when the popular finite element (FE model is utilized. To save the computational cost and make the uncertainty analysis feasible in practice, an efficient fast computation method, reanalysis method is integrated in the frame. The numerical test demonstrates that the proposed approach is an efficient uncertainty analysis tool for the practical engineering problems.

  5. Asking 'why' from a distance facilitates emotional processing: a reanalysis of Wimalaweera and Moulds (2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayduk, Ozlem; Kross, Ethan

    2009-01-01

    Wimalaweera and Moulds [Wimalaweera, S. W., & Moulds, M. L. (2008). Processing memories of anger-eliciting events: the effect of asking 'why' from a distance. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 402-409] reported a failure to replicate previous findings demonstrating the effectiveness of analyzing anger-related experiences from a self-distanced perspective for reducing negative affect in the short-term (Ayduk, O., & Kross, E. (2008). [Enhancing the pace of recovery: self-distanced-analysis of negative experiences reduces blood pressure reactivity. Psychological Science, 9(3), 229-231; Kross, E., Ayduk, O., & Mischel, W. (2005). When asking "why" does not hurt. Psychological Science, 16, 709-715.] and facilitating adaptive emotional processing over time [Kross, E., & Ayduk, O. (2008). Facilitating adaptive emotional analysis: distinguishing distanced-analysis of depressive experiences from immersed-analysis and distraction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin]. A reanalysis of their data that takes into account effect sizes and participants' scores on the avoidance subscale of the Impact of Events Scale, which were not reported in the original write-up, contradict this and a number of other conclusions reported in their article. In this article, we review the key findings that emerged from this reanalysis.

  6. Reanalysis and semantic persistence in native and non-native garden-path recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Gunnar; Felser, Claudia

    2016-01-01

    We report the results from an eye-movement monitoring study investigating how native and non-native speakers of English process temporarily ambiguous sentences such as While the gentleman was eating the burgers were still being reheated in the microwave, in which an initially plausible direct-object analysis is first ruled out by a syntactic disambiguation (were) and also later on by semantic information (being reheated). Both participant groups showed garden-path effects at the syntactic disambiguation, with native speakers showing significantly stronger effects of ambiguity than non-native speakers in later eye-movement measures but equally strong effects in first-pass reading times. Ambiguity effects at the semantic disambiguation and in participants' end-of-trial responses revealed that for both participant groups, the incorrect direct-object analysis was frequently maintained beyond the syntactic disambiguation. The non-native group showed weaker reanalysis effects at the syntactic disambiguation and was more likely to misinterpret the experimental sentences than the native group. Our results suggest that native language (L1) and non-native language (L2) parsing are similar with regard to sensitivity to syntactic and semantic error signals, but different with regard to processes of reanalysis.

  7. Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cornejo-Bueno

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

  8. Geodetic reanalysis of annual glaciological mass balances (2001-2011) of Hintereisferner, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klug, Christoph; Bollmann, Erik; Galos, Stephan Peter; Nicholson, Lindsey; Prinz, Rainer; Rieg, Lorenzo; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Kaser, Georg

    2018-03-01

    This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained annual glacier mass balances at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria, for the period 2001-2011. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid-based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two methods of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual, as well as the cumulative, mass changes over the 10-year record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.), and 2006/07 (-0.45 m w.e.). We conclude that exceptional meteorological conditions can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as validation or calibration tools for the glaciological method.

  9. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  10. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Diouf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM, driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be

  11. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  12. Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

    2015-01-01

    The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

  13. A Reanalysis of Toomela (2003: Spurious measurement error as cause for common variance between personality factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MATTHIAS ZIEGLER

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The present article reanalyzed data collected by Toomela (2003. The data contain personality self ratings and cognitive ability test results from n = 912 men with military background. In his original article Toomela showed that in the group with the highest cognitive ability, Big-Five-Neuroticism and -Conscientiousness were substantially correlated and could no longer be clearly separated using exploratory factor analysis. The present reanalysis was based on the hypothesis that a spurious measurement error caused by situational demand was responsible. This means, people distorted their answers. Furthermore it was hypothesized that this situational demand was felt due to a person’s military rank but not due to his intelligence. Using a multigroup structural equation model our hypothesis could be confirmed. Moreover, the results indicate that an uncorrelated trait model might represent personalities better when situational demand is partialized. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

  14. Re-analysis of survival data of cancer patients utilizing additive homeopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleiss, Andreas; Frass, Michael; Gaertner, Katharina

    2016-08-01

    In this short communication we present a re-analysis of homeopathic patient data in comparison to control patient data from the same Outpatient´s Unit "Homeopathy in malignant diseases" of the Medical University of Vienna. In this analysis we took account of a probable immortal time bias. For patients suffering from advanced stages of cancer and surviving the first 6 or 12 months after diagnosis, respectively, the results show that utilizing homeopathy gives a statistically significant (p<0.001) advantage over control patients regarding survival time. In conclusion, bearing in mind all limitations, the results of this retrospective study suggest that patients with advanced stages of cancer might benefit from additional homeopathic treatment until a survival time of up to 12 months after diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Reanalysis of Korean War Anthropological Records to Support the Resolution of Cold Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Emily K

    2017-09-01

    Re-investigation of previously unidentified remains from the Korean War has yielded 55 new identifications, each with corresponding records of prior anthropological analyses. This study compares biological assessments for age at death, stature, and ancestry across (i) anthropological analyses from the 1950s, (ii) recent anthropological analyses of those same sets of remains, and (iii) the reported antemortem biological information for the identified individual. A comparison of long bone measurements from both the 1950s and during reanalysis is also presented. These comparisons demonstrate commonalities and continuing patterns of errors that are useful in refining both research on Korean War cold case records and forensic anthropological analyses performed using methods developed from the 1950s identifications. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  16. Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietsche, Steffen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zuo, Hao; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-08-01

    We discuss the state of Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis Ocean ReAnalysis Pilot 5 (ORAP5). Among other innovations, ORAP5 now assimilates observations of sea ice concentration using a univariate 3DVar-FGAT scheme. We focus on the period 1993-2012 and emphasize the evaluation of model performance with respect to recent observations of sea ice thickness. We find that sea ice concentration in ORAP5 is close to assimilated observations, with root mean square analysis residuals of less than 5 % in most regions. However, larger discrepancies exist for the Labrador Sea and east of Greenland during winter owing to biases in the free-running model. Sea ice thickness is evaluated against three different observational data sets that have sufficient spatial and temporal coverage: ICESat, IceBridge and SMOSIce. Large-scale features like the gradient between the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic and thinner ice in the Siberian Arctic are simulated well by ORAP5. However, some biases remain. Of special note is the model's tendency to accumulate too thick ice in the Beaufort Gyre. The root mean square error of ORAP5 sea ice thickness with respect to ICESat observations is 1.0 m, which is on par with the well-established PIOMAS model sea ice reconstruction. Interannual variability and trend of sea ice volume in ORAP5 also compare well with PIOMAS and ICESat estimates. We conclude that, notwithstanding a relatively simple sea ice data assimilation scheme, the overall state of Arctic sea ice in ORAP5 is in good agreement with observations and will provide useful initial conditions for predictions.

  17. Circumpolar Genetic Structure and Recent Gene Flow of Polar Bears: A Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malenfant, René M; Davis, Corey S; Cullingham, Catherine I; Coltman, David W

    2016-01-01

    Recently, an extensive study of 2,748 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from across their circumpolar range was published in PLOS ONE, which used microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes to apparently show altered population structure and a dramatic change in directional gene flow towards the Canadian Archipelago-an area believed to be a future refugium for polar bears as their southernmost habitats decline under climate change. Although this study represents a major international collaborative effort and promised to be a baseline for future genetics work, methodological shortcomings and errors of interpretation undermine some of the study's main conclusions. Here, we present a reanalysis of this data in which we address some of these issues, including: (1) highly unbalanced sample sizes and large amounts of systematically missing data; (2) incorrect calculation of FST and of significance levels; (3) misleading estimates of recent gene flow resulting from non-convergence of the program BayesAss. In contrast to the original findings, in our reanalysis we find six genetic clusters of polar bears worldwide: the Hudson Bay Complex, the Western and Eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Western and Eastern Polar Basin, and-importantly-we reconfirm the presence of a unique and possibly endangered cluster of bears in Norwegian Bay near Canada's expected last sea-ice refugium. Although polar bears' abundance, distribution, and population structure will certainly be negatively affected by ongoing-and increasingly rapid-loss of Arctic sea ice, these genetic data provide no evidence of strong directional gene flow in response to recent climate change.

  18. Reporting and analysis of trials using stratified randomisation in leading medical journals: review and reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahan, Brennan C; Morris, Tim P

    2012-09-14

    To assess how often stratified randomisation is used, whether analysis adjusted for all balancing variables, and whether the method of randomisation was adequately reported, and to reanalyse a previously reported trial to assess the impact of ignoring balancing factors in the analysis. Review of published trials and reanalysis of a previously reported trial. Four leading general medical journals (BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine) and the second Multicenter Intrapleural Sepsis Trial (MIST2). 258 trials published in 2010 in the four journals. Cluster randomised, crossover, non-randomised, single arm, and phase I or II trials were excluded, as were trials reporting secondary analyses, interim analyses, or results that had been previously published in 2010. Whether the method of randomisation was adequately reported, how often balanced randomisation was used, and whether balancing factors were adjusted for in the analysis. Reanalysis of MIST2 showed that an unadjusted analysis led to larger P values and a loss of power. The review of published trials showed that balanced randomisation was common, with 163 trials (63%) using at least one balancing variable. The most common methods of balancing were stratified permuted blocks (n=85) and minimisation (n=27). The method of randomisation was unclear in 37% of trials. Most trials that balanced on centre or prognostic factors were not adequately analysed; only 26% of trials adjusted for all balancing factors in their primary analysis. Trials that did not adjust for balancing factors in their analysis were less likely to show a statistically significant result (unadjusted 57% v adjusted 78%, P=0.02). Balancing on centre or prognostic factors is common in trials but often poorly described, and the implications of balancing are poorly understood. Trialists should adjust their primary analysis for balancing factors to obtain correct P values and confidence intervals and

  19. Circumpolar Genetic Structure and Recent Gene Flow of Polar Bears: A Reanalysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René M Malenfant

    Full Text Available Recently, an extensive study of 2,748 polar bears (Ursus maritimus from across their circumpolar range was published in PLOS ONE, which used microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes to apparently show altered population structure and a dramatic change in directional gene flow towards the Canadian Archipelago-an area believed to be a future refugium for polar bears as their southernmost habitats decline under climate change. Although this study represents a major international collaborative effort and promised to be a baseline for future genetics work, methodological shortcomings and errors of interpretation undermine some of the study's main conclusions. Here, we present a reanalysis of this data in which we address some of these issues, including: (1 highly unbalanced sample sizes and large amounts of systematically missing data; (2 incorrect calculation of FST and of significance levels; (3 misleading estimates of recent gene flow resulting from non-convergence of the program BayesAss. In contrast to the original findings, in our reanalysis we find six genetic clusters of polar bears worldwide: the Hudson Bay Complex, the Western and Eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Western and Eastern Polar Basin, and-importantly-we reconfirm the presence of a unique and possibly endangered cluster of bears in Norwegian Bay near Canada's expected last sea-ice refugium. Although polar bears' abundance, distribution, and population structure will certainly be negatively affected by ongoing-and increasingly rapid-loss of Arctic sea ice, these genetic data provide no evidence of strong directional gene flow in response to recent climate change.

  20. The MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis, 1980 Onward. Part I: System Description and Data Assimilation Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randles, C. A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; da Silva, A. M. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Buchard, V. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland; Colarco, P. R. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Darmenov, A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Govindaraju, R. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; Smirnov, A. [Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Holben, B. [NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Ferrare, R. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Hair, J. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Shinozuka, Y. [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Petaluma, California; NASA Ames Research Center Cooperative for Research in Earth Science and Technology, Moffett Field, California; Flynn, C. J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-09-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) updates NASA’s previous satellite era (1980 – onward) reanalysis system to include additional observations and improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model. As a major step towards a full Integrated Earth Systems Analysis (IESA), in addition to meteorological observations, MERRA-2 now includes assimila-tion of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from various ground- and space-based remote sensing platforms. Here, in the first of a pair of studies, we document the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation, including a description of the prognostic model (GEOS-5 coupled to the GOCART aerosol module), aerosol emissions, and the quality control of ingested observations. We provide initial validation and evaluation of the analyzed AOD fields using independent observations rom ground, aircraft, and shipborne instruments. We demonstrate the pos-itive impact of the AOD assimilation on simulated aerosols by comparing MERRA-2 aerosol fields to an identical control simulation that does not in-clude AOD assimilation. Having shown the AOD evaluation, we take a first look at aerosol-climate interactions by examining the shortwave, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect. In our companion paper, we evaluate and validate available MERRA-2 aerosol properties not directly impacted by the AOD assimilation (e.g. aerosol vertical distribution and absorption). Importantly, while highlighting the skill of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation products, both studies point out caveats that must be considered when using this new reanalysis product for future studies of aerosols and their interactions with weather and climate.

  1. Assessment of the European Severe Convective Storm Climatology using Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistotnik, Georg; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Kühne, Thilo

    2013-04-01

    Thunderstorms and their accompanying phenomena like large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation are increasingly recognized as an important hazard to life and property in Europe. Within the project STEPCLIM ("Severe Thunderstorm Evaluation and Predictability in Climate Models"), we link historic severe thunderstorm events in Europe to atmospheric conditions resolved by reanalysis data. The aim is to find a relation between quantities, which can be represented by relatively coarse climate models, and the occurrence of short-lived and local severe weather phenomena associated with convection. At a later stage, this relation will be applied to climate forecast data, so that the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms can be investigated. A set of parameters is defined for the characterization of the local state of the atmosphere at any given point in place and time. These parameters represent the "ingredients" for severe thunderstorms, namely instability, vertical wind shear, and a measure of support for convective initiation. They are calculated from 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis fields (1979-2011). The such derived fields are compared with the occurrence or non-occurrence of severe weather phenomena according to the quality-controlled severe storm reports collected in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). A logistic regression is then fitted in order to find the best relation between a given combination of parameters and the associated severe weather probability. This relation is postulated to be invariant against any changes in climate, an assumption that is justified by the physics-based nature of the chosen parameters. With this restriction, the derived relation can be used to estimate future severe weather frequencies based on modeled climatic changes of the underlying parameter distributions. In this presentation, emphasis is put on the used methodology and on a way to deal with

  2. Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to 2011. The mean 80-m wind exhibits strong seasonality and large spatial variability, with higher (lower) wind speeds in the...

  3. No support for a General Factor of Personality in a reanalysis of Van der Linden et al.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, R.E.

    2011-01-01

    Reanalysis of data (N= 512) of Van der Linden, Scholte, Cillessen, Te Nijenhuis, and Segers (2010) does not provide support for the existence of a General Factor of Personality (GFP) and of its relation with likeability and popularity among adolescent classmates. First of all, it was impossible to

  4. Re-analysis of public genetic data reveals a rare X-chromosomal variant associated with type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonàs-Guarch, Sílvia; Guindo-Martínez, Marta; Miguel-Escalada, Irene

    2018-01-01

    The reanalysis of existing GWAS data represents a powerful and cost-effective opportunity to gain insights into the genetics of complex diseases. By reanalyzing publicly available type 2 diabetes (T2D) genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data for 70,127 subjects, we identify seven novel associ...

  5. Processes of Change in Acceptance and Commitment Therapy and Cognitive Therapy for Depression: A Mediation Reanalysis of Zettle and Rains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zettle, Robert D.; Rains, Jeanetta C.; Hayes, Steven C.

    2011-01-01

    Several articles have recently questioned the distinction between acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) and traditional cognitive therapy (CT). This study presents a reanalysis of data from Zettle and Rains that compared 12 weeks of group CT with group ACT. For theoretical reasons, Zettle and Rains also included a modified form of CT that did…

  6. EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments (Volume 1) (Interagency Science Discussion Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is releasing the draft report, EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments (Volume 1), that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the 75 FR 35800 - Draft EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-23

    ... AGENCY Draft EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments... Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments'' (EPA/600/R-10/038A) for independent external review, and... result from exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). These analyses have not been in...

  7. Fluxo de vapor de água atmosférico na obtenção do resíduo ET-P em três macrorregiões brasileiras Atmospheric water vapor flux in the determination of the residual ET-P in three Brazilian macro regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enilson P. Cavalcanti

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available São analisados, neste trabalho, a precipitação, a evapotranspiração e o resíduo (ET-P para três áreas de controle de 10 por 10 graus de latitude e longitude sobre as regiões Nordeste, Norte e Sudeste do Brasil. O fluxo de vapor d'água resultante é calculado e comparado com o resíduo. As análises são feitas a partir dos dados de reanálise mensais do National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction - NCAR/NCEP, para o período de 1958 a 1998. Aspectos da variação sazonal e interanual dos elementos citados são apresentados para cada uma das áreas e, entre os resultados obtidos, destacam-se a boa correlação entre o resíduo e o fluxo de vapor d'água resultante, com coeficientes de determinação de 0,86, 0,84 e 0,74 para as áreas Nordeste, Norte e Sudeste, respectivamente.This paper presents an analysis of precipitation, evapotranspiration and ET-P residuals for three 10º by 10º latitude/longitude control areas over the northeast, north and southeast of Brazil. The resulting water vapor flux is calculated and compared to the residual. The analysis is performed through the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1998. Some aspects of both seasonal and interannual variation of these variables are presented for each depicted area. The main result is the good correlation between the residuals and the resulting water vapor flux with determination coefficients of 0.86, 0.84 and 0.74 for these respective regions.

  8. Evaluation of the hydrological cycle of MATCH driven by NCEP reanalysis data: comparison with GOME water vapor measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Lang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines two key parameters of the hydrological cycle, water vapor (WV and precipitation rates (PR, as modelled by the chemistry transport model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data (NRA. For model output evaluation we primarily employ WV total column data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME on ERS-2, which is the only instrument capable measuring WV on a global scale and over all surface types with a substantial data record from 1995 to the present. We find that MATCH and NRA WV and PR distributions are closely related, but that significant regional differences in both parameters exist in magnitude and distribution patterns when compared to the observations. We also find that WV residual patterns between model and observations show remarkable similarities to residuals observed in the PR when comparing MATCH and NRA output to observations comprised by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP. We conclude that deficiencies in model parameters shared by MATCH and NRA, like in the surface evaporation rates and regional transport patterns, are likely to lead to the observed differences. Monthly average regional differences between MATCH modelled WV columns and the observations can be as large as 2 cm, based on the analysis of three years. Differences in the global mean WV values are, however, below 0.1 cm. Regional differences in the PR between MATCH and GPCP can be above 0.5 cm per day and MATCH computes on average a higher PR than what has been observed. The lower water vapor content of MATCH is related to shorter model WV residence times by up to 1 day as compared to the observations. We find that MATCH has problems in modelling the WV content in regions of strong upward convection like, for example, along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, where it appears to be generally too dry as compared to the observations. We

  9. Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations over two solar cycles, and operational forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding of the dynamics in Earth's radiation belts is critical to accurate modeling and forecasting of space weather conditions, both which are important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. In the current study, we utilize the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, multi-spacecraft measurements, and a split-operator Kalman filter to recontructe the global state of the radiation belt system in the CRRES era and the current era. The reanalysis has revealed a never before seen 4-belt structure in the radiation belts during the March 1991 superstorm, and highlights several important aspects in regards to the the competition between the source, acceleration, loss, and transport of particles. In addition to the above, performing reanalysis in adiabatic coordinates relies on specification of the Earth's magnetic field, and associated observational, and model errors. We determine the observational errors for the Kalman filter directly from cross-spacecraft phase-space density (PSD) conjunctions, and obtain the error in VERB by comparison with reanalysis over a long time period. Specification of errors associated with several magnetic field models provides an important insight into the applicability of such models for radiation belt research. The comparison of CRRES area reanalysis with Van Allen Probe era reanalysis allows us to perform a global comparison of the dynamics of the radiation belts during different parts of the solar cycle and during different solar cycles. The data assimilative model is presently used to perform operational forecasts of the radiation belts (http://rbm.epss.ucla.edu/realtime-forecast/).

  10. Interannual variability of sea surface temperature and circulation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A regional ocean model was used to study interannual variations in the Tanzanian shelf region and offshore in the tropical western Indian Ocean for the period 1980–2007. The model was forced with surface winds and heat fluxes from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, and its initial and ...

  11. Development studies towards an 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Zhang, J.; Hogan, T. F.; Hyer, E. J.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D. A.; Shi, Y.; Campbell, J. R.; Rubin, J. I.; Sessions, W. R.; Turk, F. J.; Walker, A. L.

    2015-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous climate and applied applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003-2013 global 1° × 1° and 6 hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This dataset can be applied to basic and applied earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine and coarse mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine and coarse mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine and coarse mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how the

  12. Evidence for non-linear metabolism at low benzene exposures? A reanalysis of data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, K; Sams, C; Loizou, G D; Jones, K

    2017-12-25

    The presence of a high-affinity metabolic pathway for low level benzene exposures of less than one part per million (ppm) has been proposed although a pathway has not been identified. The variation of metabolite molar fractions with increasing air benzene concentrations was suggested as evidence of significantly more efficient benzene metabolism at concentrations benzene concentrations (not just "low level"). In this work we undertake a further independent re-analysis of this data with a focus on the evidence for an increase in the rate of metabolism of benzene exposures of less than 1 ppm. The analysis dataset consisted of measurements of benzene and toluene from personal air samplers, and measurements of unmetabolised benzene and toluene and five metabolites (phenol hydroquinone, catechol, trans, trans-muconic acid and s-phenylmercapturic acid) from post-shift urine samples for 213 workers with an occupational exposure to benzene (and toluene) and 139 controls. Measurements from control subjects were used to estimate metabolite concentrations resulting from non-occupational sources, including environmental sources of benzene. Data from occupationally exposed subjects were used to estimate metabolite concentrations as a function of benzene exposure. Correction for background (environmental exposure) sources of metabolites was achieved through a comparison of geometric means in occupationally exposed and control populations. The molar fractions of the five metabolites as a function of benzene exposure were computed. A supra-linear relationship between metabolite concentrations and benzene exposure was observed over the range 0.1-10 ppm benzene, however over the range benzene exposures of between 0.1 and 1 ppm only a modest departure from linearity was observed. The molar fractions estimated in this work were near constant over the range 0.1-10 ppm. No evidence of high affinity metabolism at these low level exposures was observed. Our reanalysis brings in to

  13. Changing perspectives on community identity and function: A remote sensing and artifactual re-analysis of Barton Ramie, Belize

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Errin Teresa

    This dissertation presents the results of the remote sensing and artifact re-analysis of the archaeological site of Barton Ramie, Belize. The site was the focus of Dr. Gordon R. Willey's innovative archaeological program in the Belize River Valley to study ancient Maya settlement, environment, and population in 1954-1956. Through the use of artifact analysis combined with the examination of high-resolution Worldview-1 imagery and a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis, I consider how the inhabitants of Barton Ramie forged community functioning and identity. I focus on the range of intra-site diversity including differential access to labor, goods, land, and the activities evidenced in households and non-domestic structures. Using a community theory framework, emphasizing the many practices that tied the community together, I underscore the variability expressed in architectural elaboration, sumptuary goods, ritual, and specialization. That variability has profound implications for understanding community diversity and economic, social, and ritual functioning. High-resolution panchromatic Worldview-1 satellite imagery successfully detected the remains of Barton Ramie settlement. Surface archaeology has been largely destroyed due to extensive agricultural activities in recent decades. GIS analysis and ground-truthing determined that mound size is the primary factor enabling detection of ancient features. The confirmation of features in an intensively plowed environment has implications including settlement, survey, and population for other disturbed environments. I argue that the Barton Ramie community developed from a complex interaction of networks and practices. These include activities at the household level, articulation between households to form sub-communities (or neighborhoods), and a larger imagined community of the Barton Ramie polity. Individual households articulated to form seven discrete sub-communities, bounded by landscape

  14. A reanalysis of ozone on Mars from assimilation of SPICAM observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, James A.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, Manish R.; Lefèvre, Franck

    2018-03-01

    We have assimilated for the first time SPICAM retrievals of total ozone into a Martian global circulation model to provide a global reanalysis of the ozone cycle. Disagreement in total ozone between model prediction and assimilation is observed between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180° and at northern polar (60°N-90°N) latitudes during northern fall (LS = 150-195°). Large percentage differences in total ozone at northern fall polar latitudes identified through the assimilation process are linked with excessive northward transport of water vapour west of Tharsis and over Arabia Terra. Modelling biases in water vapour can also explain the underestimation of total ozone between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180°. Heterogeneous uptake of odd hydrogen radicals are unable to explain the outstanding underestimation of northern polar total ozone in late northern fall. Assimilation of total ozone retrievals results in alterations of the modelled spatial distribution of ozone in the southern polar winter high altitude ozone layer. This illustrates the potential use of assimilation methods in constraining total ozone where SPICAM cannot observe, in a region where total ozone is especially important for potential investigations of the polar dynamics.

  15. Use Of EOS-AURA Observation In The MERRA-2 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Coy, Lawrence L.; McCarty, Will

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological reanalyses provide multi-year gridded datasets that describe the evolution of the atmosphere. Such products use a data assimilation system, comprising of an atmospheric model, a broad suite of observations, and an analysis system that optimally combines the model forecast with the observations, using an algorithm that includes information about model and data accuracy. The mixture of observations is of central importance to the quality of the assimilated datasets. The Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) included constraints on the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere from nadir sounders on the NOAA polar-orbiting platforms (Stratospheric Sounding Units and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units). These instruments have peak sensitivities that occur well below the stratopause. As such, the radiance measurements do not provide strong constraints on stratopause temperature. The new MERRA-2 reanalysis is using EOS-MLS temperature retrievals after they are available: it will be demonstrated that these data lead to a more realistic stratopause structure in MERRA-2 than in MERRA. Similarly, the work demonstrates the improvements in lower stratospheric ozone in MERRA-2 than in MERRA, for the period when EOS-MLS ozone data are assimilated. This improvement occurs because of the ozone profile information offered by MLS in the low stratosphere, in contrast to the SBUV/2 data used for the rest of MERRA-2. The impacts of choosing to use the EOS-MLS datasets are discussed in context of the continuity of the data record in MERRA- 2.

  16. Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

    2011-01-01

    Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

  17. Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

    2018-01-01

    Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

  18. Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

  19. Wave energy resource of Brazil: An analysis from 35 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Luz Espindola

    Full Text Available This paper presents a characterization of the wave power resource and an analysis of the wave power output for three (AquaBuoy, Pelamis and Wave Dragon different wave energy converters (WEC over the Brazilian offshore. To do so it used a 35 years reanalysis database from the ERA-Interim project. Annual and seasonal statistical analyzes of significant height and energy period were performed, and the directional variability of the incident waves were evaluated. The wave power resource was characterized in terms of the statistical parameters of mean, maximum, 95th percentile and standard deviation, and in terms of the temporal variability coefficients COV, SV e MV. From these analyses, the total annual wave power resource available over the Brazilian offshore was estimated in 89.97 GW, with largest mean wave power of 20.63 kW/m in the southernmost part of the study area. The analysis of the three WEC was based in the annual wave energy output and in the capacity factor. The higher capacity factor was 21.85% for Pelamis device at the southern region of the study area.

  1. Reanalysis of “Raptorex kriegsteini”: A Juvenile Tyrannosaurid Dinosaur from Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Denver W.; Woodward, Holly N.; Freedman, Elizabeth A.; Larson, Peter L.; Horner, John R.

    2011-01-01

    The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18) derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size. PMID:21738646

  2. Revisiting tropical instability wave variability in the Atlantic ocean using SODA reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Decco, Hatsue Takanaca; Torres Junior, Audalio Rebelo; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi; Landau, Luiz

    2018-03-01

    The spatial and temporal variability of energy exchange in Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) in the Atlantic Ocean were investigated. A spectral analysis was used to filter the 5-day mean results from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis spanning from 1958 to 2008. TIWs were filtered over periods of 15 to 60 days and between wavelengths of 4 and 20 longitude degrees. The main approach of this study was the use of bidirectionally filtered TIW time series as the perturbation fields, and the difference in these time series from the SODA total results was considered to be the basic state for energetics analysis. The main result was that the annual cycle (period of 360 days) was the main source of variability of the waves, and the semi-annual cycle (period of 180 days) was a secondary variation, which indicated that TIWs occurred throughout the year but with intensity that varies seasonally. In SODA, barotropic instability acts as the mechanism that feeds and extracts energy to/from TIWs at equatorial Atlantic. Baroclinic instability is the main mechanism that extracts energy from TIWs to the equatorial circulation north of the Equator. All TIW patterns of variability were observed western of 10° W. The present study reveals new evidences regarding TIW variability and suggests that future investigations should include a detailed description of TIW dynamics as part of Atlantic Ocean equatorial circulation.

  3. Reanalysis of interviewing study data in the health attitude survey of A-bomb survivors, etc

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satoh, Kenichi

    2012-01-01

    The interviewing study data in the title were initially contained in the official request of Hiroshima City and Prefecture, which had been presented to MHLW (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare) in 2010, concerning spread of previously defined A-bomb exposed regions and were statistically reanalyzed based on the requirement of the consequent MHLW council. The data were originally derived from the questionnaire in 2008 about the health attitude survey by Hiroshima authorities, from which 892 survivors had received the interview together with self-writing, and answers of 869 parsons (524 males) were finally subjected to the present reanalysis. Measures of the interview involved the SF-36 (Medical Outcome Study Short Form 36-item Health Survey) for QOL, GHQ28 (General Health Questionnaire 28-item) for screening of neurosis/depression, and CAPS (Clinician Administered PTSD Scale) for diagnosis of PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder), etc. These measures were analyzed along with classes of A-bomb experience with adjustment factors of sex, age and income by multiple-/multivariate logistic-regression. It was found that measures were tended to be worse in groups experiencing the black rain without effects of adjustment factors, which was similar to groups experiencing the heavier rainfall; however, these results were statistically insignificant. (T.T.)

  4. Wave energy resource of Brazil: An analysis from 35 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espindola, Rafael Luz; Araújo, Alex Maurício

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a characterization of the wave power resource and an analysis of the wave power output for three (AquaBuoy, Pelamis and Wave Dragon) different wave energy converters (WEC) over the Brazilian offshore. To do so it used a 35 years reanalysis database from the ERA-Interim project. Annual and seasonal statistical analyzes of significant height and energy period were performed, and the directional variability of the incident waves were evaluated. The wave power resource was characterized in terms of the statistical parameters of mean, maximum, 95th percentile and standard deviation, and in terms of the temporal variability coefficients COV, SV e MV. From these analyses, the total annual wave power resource available over the Brazilian offshore was estimated in 89.97 GW, with largest mean wave power of 20.63 kW/m in the southernmost part of the study area. The analysis of the three WEC was based in the annual wave energy output and in the capacity factor. The higher capacity factor was 21.85% for Pelamis device at the southern region of the study area.

  5. Reanalysis of atomic bomb survivors' leukemia based on the recent classification for leukemias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuo, Tatsuki; Tomonaga, Masao.

    1990-01-01

    Four hundred and ninety-three A-bomb survivors developing leukemia, who had been exposed within 9,000 m from the hypocenter, were entered on the study for reanalysis of their disease based on the new classification. Chronic myelocytic leukemia (CML) showed the highest concordance rate (95%) between the previous and new classifications. For 10 survivors previously diagnosed as having chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), a new classification diagnosed CLL as well in 3 and adult T-cell leukemia in the other 7. None of the A-bomb survivors exposed to one Gy or more had subtype M3 of acute myelocytic leukemia (AML), although the exposed group had almost the same distribution pattern of AML subtypes as the naturally induced leukemic group. The incidence of CML was significantly lower than that of AML in Nagasaki A-bomb survivors. As A-bomb survivors were older at the time of A-bombing, the relative risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was decreased; that of CML and other types of leukemia was increased. An increased relative risk of ALL and CML tended to be associated with larger doses. A significantly shortened interval between A-bomb exposure and the development of leukemia was also associated with larger doses. (N.K.)

  6. Hail frequency estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punge, H. J.; Bedka, K. M.; Kunz, M.; Reinbold, A.

    2017-12-01

    This article presents a hail frequency estimation based on the detection of cold overshooting cloud tops (OTs) from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) operational weather satellites, in combination with a hail-specific filter derived from the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This filter has been designed based on the atmospheric properties in the vicinity of hail reports registered in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). These include Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), 0-6-km bulk wind shear and freezing level height, evaluated at the nearest time step and interpolated from the reanalysis grid to the location of the hail report. Regions highly exposed to hail events include Northern Italy, followed by South-Eastern Austria and Eastern Spain. Pronounced hail frequency is also found in large parts of Eastern Europe, around the Alps, the Czech Republic, Southern Germany, Southern and Eastern France, and in the Iberic and Apennine mountain ranges.

  7. Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-10

    Oceanography Division, Naval Research Laboratory, tennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA. Tel.: +2286884883. E-mail address: zhitao.yu.ctr@nrlssc.navy.mil (Z. Yu...of the observations (Na et al., 2014). The time frame spans the observational period, June 2009–June 2011. Table 1 Correlation coefficient between...transforms the results. The correlation coefficients between reanalysis and observed along Kerama Gap velocity are summarized in Table 1 for the two

  8. Evaluation of the trend uncertainty in summer ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau in three reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Dong; Su, Yucheng; Zhou, Xiuji; Xu, Jianjun; Shi, Chunhua; Liu, Yu; Li, Weiliang; Li, Zhenkun

    2017-04-01

    Trend uncertainty in the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) and the South Asian high (SAH) during 1979-2009 in ERA-Interim (interim reanalysis data from the ECMWF), JRA-55 (55-yr reanalysis data from the Japan Meteorological Agency), and NCEP-CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) datasets was evaluated. The results showed that the NCEP-CFSR OVTP became strong in the summers of 1979-2009, whereas it became weak according to ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Satellite data merged with TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) agreed with the OVTP trend of NCEP-CFSR. The OVTP strengthening in NCEP-CFSR may have been caused by SAH intensification, a rising tropopause, and increasing ozone over non-TP (non-Tibetan Plateau) areas (27°-37°N, 105°E). Analogously, the OVTP weakening in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 may have been affected by weakening SAH, descending tropopause, and decreasing non-TP ozone.

  9. Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

  10. Analysis of the precipitation and streamflow extremes in Northern Italy using high resolution reanalysis dataset Express-Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Parodi, Antonio; Campo, Lorenzo

    2017-04-01

    The characterization of the hydrometeorological extremes, both in terms of rainfall and streamflow, in a given region plays a key role in the environmental monitoring provided by the flood alert services. In last years meteorological simulations (both near real-time and historical reanalysis) were available at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions, making possible long-period hydrological reanalysis in which the meteo dataset is used as input in distributed hydrological models. In this work, a very high resolution meteorological reanalysis dataset, namely Express-Hydro (CIMA, ISAC-CNR, GAUSS Special Project PR45DE), was employed as input in the hydrological model Continuum in order to produce long time series of streamflows in the Liguria territory, located in the Northern part of Italy. The original dataset covers the whole Europe territory in the 1979-2008 period, at 4 km of spatial resolution and 3 hours of time resolution. Analyses in terms of comparison between the rainfall estimated by the dataset and the observations (available from the local raingauges network) were carried out, and a bias correction was also performed in order to better match the observed climatology. An extreme analysis was eventually carried on the streamflows time series obtained by the simulations, by comparing them with the results of the same hydrological model fed with the observed time series of rainfall. The results of the analysis are shown and discussed.

  11. Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

    2017-07-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

  12. Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

    2018-05-01

    The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

  13. Studying Diurnal Variations of Aerosols with NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana M.; Zeng, Jian; Vollmer, Bruce E.

    2018-01-01

    Aerosols play an important role in atmospheric dynamics, climate variations, and Earth's energy cycle by altering the radiation balance in the atmosphere through interaction with clouds, providing fertilizer for forests and canopy, and as a supply of iron to the ocean over long time periods. Studies suggest that much of the feedback between dust aerosols and dynamics is associated with diurnal and synoptic scale variability. However, the lack of sub-daily resolution of aerosols from satellite observations makes it difficult to study the diurnal characteristics, especially over tropical and subtropical regions. Investigation of this topic utilizes over 37 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, in the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set, available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, and is continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using data from MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated using the MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interacts directly with radiation parameterization, and is radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Hourly, monthly, and monthly diurnal data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5o x 0.625o (latitude x longitude). By using MERRA-2 hourly and monthly diurnal products, different aerosol diurnal variabilities are observed over North America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, that may be due to different meteorological conditions and aerosol sources. The presentation will also provide an overview of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, such as how to find and download data, and how to quickly visualize and analyze data online with Giovanni.

  14. Mass balance re-analysis of Findelengletscher, Switzerland; benefits of extensive snow accumulation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo eSold

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A re-analysis is presented here of a 10-year mass balance series at Findelengletscher, a temperate mountain glacier in Switzerland. Calculating glacier-wide mass balance from the set of glaciological point balance observations using conventional approaches, such as the profile or contour method, resulted in significant deviations from the reference value given by the geodetic mass change over a five-year period. This is attributed to the sparsity of observations at high elevations and to the inability of the evaluation schemes to adequately estimate accumulation in unmeasured areas. However, measurements of winter mass balance were available for large parts of the study period from snow probings and density pits. Complementary surveys by helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR were conducted in three consecutive years. The complete set of seasonal observations was assimilated using a distributed mass balance model. This model-based extrapolation revealed a substantial mass loss at Findelengletscher of -0.43m w.e. a^-1 between 2004 and 2014, while the loss was less pronounced for its former tributary, Adlergletscher (-0.30m w.e. a^-1. For both glaciers, the resulting time series were within the uncertainty bounds of the geodetic mass change. We show that the model benefited strongly from the ability to integrate seasonal observations. If no winter mass balance measurements were available and snow cover was represented by a linear precipitation gradient, the geodetic mass balance was not matched. If winter balance measurements by snow probings and snow density pits were taken into account, the model performance was substantially improved but still showed a significant bias relative to the geodetic mass change. Thus the excellent agreement of the model-based extrapolation with the geodetic mass change was owed to an adequate representation of winter accumulation distribution by means of extensive GPR measurements.

  15. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Fischer, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Ganske, A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Heinrich, H.

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  16. [Characteristics of Hospitalized Mentally ill Spanish Migrants in Germany - Results of a Statistical Reanalysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdés-Stauber, J; Valdés-Stauber, M A

    2015-10-01

    To draft a clinical profile of mentally ill first-generation Spanish immigrants in Germany treated in a special setting in their native language and to identify possible correlations between time of onset of a mental disorder and migration and also between degree of utilization and clinical as well as care variables. Statistical reanalysis of individual data (n = 100) of a previously published descriptive study with aggregated data corresponding to 15 variables. Correlations are calculated using chi-square as well as Fisher's exact test. Multivariate regression and logistic models were conducted. In addition to the explained variance of the models (R(2)), analyses of residuals as well as post-hoc power analyses (1-β) were performed. A quarter of the sample (26 %) was mentally ill before migration; most of the patients received treatment very late (about 10 years after onset) and became chronically ill. Half of the sample shows a relevant somatic comorbidity and large average lengths of inpatient stays (54 days). In 16 % of treated cases, repatriation had to be organized. The degree of chronicity correlates with mental illness prior to migration. Severe mood disorders and psychoses occur late after having migrated, addictions and neurotic disorders are equally distributed over time. Migration can not be set in a causal relationship with the development of mental disorders, although there is a positive correlation between affective disorders and the duration of the migration status. Chronicity is related to an outbreak of the disease before migration. The sample is relatively homogeneous (one nationality, first generation), but loses epidemiological representativeness (not related to a catchment area). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnafous, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

  18. Global snowfall: A combined CloudSat, GPM, and reanalysis perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Lisa; Kulie, Mark S.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail; Munchak, S. Joseph; Wood, Norman B.; Levizzani, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    Quantitative global snowfall estimates derived from multi-year data records will be presented to highlight recent advances in high latitude precipitation retrievals using spaceborne observations. More specifically, the analysis features the 2006-2016 CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and the 2014-2016 Global Precipitation (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) observational datasets and derived products. The ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset is also used to define the meteorological context and an independent combined modeling/observational evaluation dataset. An overview is first provided of CloudSat CPR-derived results that have stimulated significant recent research regarding global snowfall, including seasonal analyses of unique snowfall modes. GMI and DPR global annual snowfall retrievals are then evaluated against the CloudSat estimates to highlight regions where the datasets provide both consistent and diverging snowfall estimates. A hemispheric seasonal analysis for both datasets will also be provided. These comparisons aim at providing a unified global snowfall characterization that leverages the respective instrument's strengths. Attention will also be devoted to regions around the globe that experience unique snowfall modes. For instance, CloudSat has demonstrated an ability to effectively discern snowfall produced by shallow cumuliform cloud structures (e.g., lake/ocean-induced convective snow produced by air/water interactions associated with seasonal cold air outbreaks). The CloudSat snowfall database also reveals prevalent seasonal shallow cumuliform snowfall trends over climate-sensitive regions like the Greenland Ice Sheet. Other regions with unique snowfall modes, such as the US East Coast winter storm track zone that experiences intense snowfall rates directly associated with strong low pressure systems, will also be highlighted to demonstrate GPM's observational effectiveness. Linkages between CloudSat and GPM

  19. Parameterization and prediction of nanoparticle transport in porous media: A reanalysis using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babakhani, Peyman; Bridge, Jonathan; Doong, Ruey-an; Phenrat, Tanapon

    2017-06-01

    The continuing rapid expansion of industrial and consumer processes based on nanoparticles (NP) necessitates a robust model for delineating their fate and transport in groundwater. An ability to reliably specify the full parameter set for prediction of NP transport using continuum models is crucial. In this paper we report the reanalysis of a data set of 493 published column experiment outcomes together with their continuum modeling results. Experimental properties were parameterized into 20 factors which are commonly available. They were then used to predict five key continuum model parameters as well as the effluent concentration via artificial neural network (ANN)-based correlations. The Partial Derivatives (PaD) technique and Monte Carlo method were used for the analysis of sensitivities and model-produced uncertainties, respectively. The outcomes shed light on several controversial relationships between the parameters, e.g., it was revealed that the trend of Katt with average pore water velocity was positive. The resulting correlations, despite being developed based on a "black-box" technique (ANN), were able to explain the effects of theoretical parameters such as critical deposition concentration (CDC), even though these parameters were not explicitly considered in the model. Porous media heterogeneity was considered as a parameter for the first time and showed sensitivities higher than those of dispersivity. The model performance was validated well against subsets of the experimental data and was compared with current models. The robustness of the correlation matrices was not completely satisfactory, since they failed to predict the experimental breakthrough curves (BTCs) at extreme values of ionic strengths.

  20. Toward Reanalysis of the Tight-Pitch HCLWR-PROTEUS Phase II Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perret, Grégory; Vlassopoulos, Efstathios; Hursin, Mathieu; Pautz, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The HCLWR-Proteus Phase II experiments were conducted from 1985 to 1990 in the zero-power reactor Proteus at PSI in Switzerland. The experimental program was dedicated to the physics of high conversion light water reactors and in particular to the measurement of reactor parameters such as reaction rate traverses, spectral indices, absorber reactivity worths and void coefficients. The HCLWR experiments are especially interesting because they generated knowledge in the epithermal range of the neutron flux spectrum, for which little integral experimental data is available. In an effort to assess the interest of this experimental data to validate modern nuclear data and improve their uncertainties, a preliminary re-analysis of selected configurations was conducted with Monte-Carlo codes (MCNP6/SERPENT2) and modern nuclear data libraries (ENDF/B-VII.0, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-4.0). The spectral ndices, flux spectra and sensitivity coefficients on k∞ were calculated using cell models representative of the tight-pitch measurement configurations containing 11% PuO2-UO2 fuel rods in different moderation conditions (air, water and dowtherm). Spectral index predictions using the three nuclear data libraries agreed within two standard deviations with the measured values. The only exception is the Pu-242-capture-to-Pu-239-fission ratio, which was overestimated with all libraries by more than four standard deviations, i.e. 13%, in the non-moderated configuration. In this configuration, Pu-242 captures are few since the flux spectrum in the Pu-242 capture resonance region (between 1eV and 1keV) is small making this spectral index hard to measure. Sensitivity coefficient predictions with both MCNP6 and SERPENT2 were in good agreement.

  1. Acupuncture is Effective for Chronic Knee Pain: A Reanalysis of the Australian Acupuncture Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Arthur Yin; Zhou, Kehua; Gu, Sherman; Ming Li, Yong

    2016-03-01

    Context • In the October 2014 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), Hinman et al published the results of an Australian clinical trial on acupuncture in a paper entitled "Acupuncture for Chronic Knee Pain: A Randomized Clinical Trial" (JAMA report), in which they concluded that neither acupuncture nor laser acupuncture had any greater effects than sham laser acupuncture for pain or function for patients aged 50 y and older with moderate-to-severe knee pain. That study has been criticized extensively by international scholars for its validity because serious methodological flaws existed throughout the study's design, implementation, and conclusions. Objective • The current study intended to re-examine the prior study's conclusions about the efficacy of acupuncture for chronic knee pain. Design • The current research team performed a reanalysis of relevant data from the JAMA report. Intervention • The original study included 4 groups: (1) an acupuncture group, which received needle acupuncture, inferred by the current authors to have been set up to be a positive control in the original study; (2) a laser acupuncture group, which received laser acupuncture; (3) a sham laser acupuncture group, which received sham laser acupuncture and acted as the negative controls for the laser acupuncture intervention; and (4) a control group, which received conventional care but no acupuncture or laser treatments. The study lasted 12 wk. Outcome Measures • The measures included evaluations in the following areas: (1) poststudy modifications-an evaluation of the consistency of the JAMA report with the study's intentions as identified for a grant that was originally approved and funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) in 2009, as indicated in the study's trial registration, and as compared with the published protocols and to the study's originally stated objectives; (2) high heterogeneity-an assessment of the

  2. A revised global ozone dry deposition estimate based on a new two-layer parameterisation for air-sea exchange and the multi-year MACC composition reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhar, Ashok K.; Woodhouse, Matthew T.; Galbally, Ian E.

    2018-03-01

    Dry deposition at the Earth's surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. Currently, dry deposition of ozone to the ocean surface in atmospheric chemistry models has the largest uncertainty compared to deposition to other surface types, with implications for global tropospheric ozone budget and associated radiative forcing. Most global models assume that the dominant term of surface resistance in the parameterisation of ozone dry deposition velocity at the oceanic surface is constant. There have been recent mechanistic parameterisations for air-sea exchange that account for the simultaneous waterside processes of ozone solubility, molecular diffusion, turbulent transfer, and first-order chemical reaction of ozone with dissolved iodide and other compounds, but there are questions about their performance and consistency. We present a new two-layer parameterisation scheme for the oceanic surface resistance by making the following realistic assumptions: (a) the thickness of the top water layer is of the order of a reaction-diffusion length scale (a few micrometres) within which ozone loss is dominated by chemical reaction and the influence of waterside turbulent transfer is negligible; (b) in the water layer below, both chemical reaction and waterside turbulent transfer act together and are accounted for; and (c) chemical reactivity is present through the depth of the oceanic mixing layer. The new parameterisation has been evaluated against dry deposition velocities from recent open-ocean measurements. It is found that the inclusion of only the aqueous iodide-ozone reaction satisfactorily describes the measurements. In order to better quantify the global dry deposition loss and its interannual variability, modelled 3-hourly ozone deposition velocities are combined with the 3-hourly MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis ozone for the years 2003-2012. The resulting ozone dry deposition is found to be 98.4 ± 30.0 Tg O3 yr-1 for the ocean

  3. Variable amplitude fatigue analysis using surrogate models and exact XFEM reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Matthew Jon

    Fatigue crack growth occurs as the result of repeated cyclic loading well below the stress levels which typically would cause failure. The number of cycles to failure for high-cycle fatigue is commonly of the order of 10 4--108 cycles to failure. Fatigue is characterized by a differential equation which gives the crack growth rate as a function of material properties and the stress intensity factor. Analytical relationships for the stress intensity factor are limited to simple geometries. A numerical method is commonly used to find the stress intensity factor for a given geometry under certain loading. The use of kriging to assist higher-order approximations is introduced. Here stress intensity factor data is fit using a surrogate. This surrogate is used to extrapolate for the purpose of integration, which enables larger step sizes to be taken without a loss in accuracy for the solution of the governing differential equation. Furthermore, it was observed that for the extended finite element method a small portion of the global stiffness matrix is changed as a result of crack growth. It is possible to use this small portion to save on both the assembly and solution of the resulting system of linear equations. This results in savings in both the assembly and factorization of the stiffness matrix for repeated simulations reducing the computational cost associated with numerical fatigue crack growth. The use of the XFEM reanalysis algorithm allow for the analysis of nonproportional mixed-mode variable amplitude loading upon an airplane wing to be considered. An airplane wing box was analyzed using AbaqusRTM. The Abaqus RTM stress solution was used in coordination with airplane flight data provided by the Air Force Research Laboratory. This stress history is converted into a cyclic loading history through the use of the rainflow counting method. The resulting analysis is one where approximately 30,000 cycles elapse. Due to the non-proportional loading, each cycle must

  4. Validating HadCM3 from NCEP re-analysis by seasonal extreme temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, P. S.; Corte-Real, J.; Silva, A. M.

    2003-04-01

    The debate on the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, confusing the climate change impact analysis and the decision-makers. In this paper we attempt to quantify the space-time uncertainties surrounding the extreme temperature’s response. Climatic and meteorological risk analy-sis and forecasting concerns, among others topics, analysis of recurrence of long duration extreme values. A statistical-dynamical analysis is carried on to derive a climatological characterization of different areas. For particular depend-ent sequences and in a context of statistical extremes, a relevant parameter appears to be the extremal index. Important parameters of rare events, which are functions of this index, are the high quantiles, and the return period for an established level. We consider the influence of the extremal index working with the method of the annual maximal or minimal. We analyse the extreme annual temperatures for the reference pe-riod 1960-61 to 1989-90 based on NCEP re-analysis to validate the HadCM3 model output over Europe. The aim of this study is to analyse whether the extreme values of the time series can detect changes, supporting the assumption of global warming during these years. We use the maximal and minimal seasonal temperatures (“DJF” for winter and “JJA” for summer) as well as the spatiotemporal clustering of extreme temperatures for this analysis. The present study points to the conclusion that, in terms of extremes, the simulations of HadCM3 reasonably reproduce those of NCEP re-analyses, a conclusion that not always emerge from the consideration of the ensembles of daily simulated and analysed fields. Consequently, all diagnostic plots led support to the fitted GEV model for extrapolation, suggesting that the HadCM3 is adequate for forecasting future extreme scenarios. Though uncertainty is inherent in any statistical model, such uncertainties can be reduced by judicious choices of model and inference, and by the utilization of all

  5. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  6. Re-analysis of tropospheric sulfate aerosol and ozone for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pozzoli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding historical trends of trace gas and aerosol distributions in the troposphere is essential to evaluate the efficiency of existing strategies to reduce air pollution and to design more efficient future air quality and climate policies. We performed coupled photochemistry and aerosol microphysics simulations for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ, to assess our understanding of long-term changes and inter-annual variability of the chemical composition of the troposphere, and in particular of ozone and sulfate concentrations, for which long-term surface observations are available. In order to separate the impact of the anthropogenic emissions and natural variability on atmospheric chemistry, we compare two model experiments, driven by the same ECMWF re-analysis data, but with varying and constant anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Our model analysis indicates an increase of ca. 1 ppbv (0.055 ± 0.002 ppbv yr−1 in global average surface O3 concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions, but this trend is largely masked by the larger O3 anomalies due to the variability of meteorology and natural emissions. The changes in meteorology (not including stratospheric variations and natural emissions account for the 75 % of the total variability of global average surface O3 concentrations. Regionally, annual mean surface O3 concentrations increased by 1.3 and 1.6 ppbv over Europe and North America, respectively, despite the large anthropogenic emission reductions between 1980 and 2005. A comparison of winter and summer O3 trends with measurements shows a qualitative agreement, except in North America, where our model erroneously computed a positive trend. Simulated O3 increases of more than 4 ppbv in East Asia and 5 ppbv in South Asia can not be corroborated with long-term observations. Global average sulfate surface

  7. Comparative Evaluation of the Third-Generation Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment of the Southwestern Offshore in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Goo Kim

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the applicability of long-term datasets among third-generation reanalysis data CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, and MERRA-2 to determine which dataset is more suitable when performing wind resource assessment for the ‘Southwest 2.5 GW Offshore Wind Power Project’, which is currently underway strategically in South Korea. The evaluation was performed by comparing the reanalyses with offshore, onshore, and island meteorological tower measurements obtained in and around the southwest offshore. In the pre-processing of the measurement data, the shading sectors due to a meteorological tower were excluded from all observation data, and the measurement heights at the offshore meteorological towers were corrected considering the sea level change caused by tidal difference. To reflect the orographic forcing by terrain features, the reanalysis data were transformed by using WindSim, a flow model based on computational fluid dynamics and statistical-dynamic downscaling. The comparison of the reanalyses with the measurement data showed the fitness in the following order in terms of coefficient of determination: MERRA-2 > CFSR = MERRA > ERA-Interim. Since the measurement data at the onshore meteorological towers strongly revealed a local wind system such as sea-land breeze, it is judged to be inappropriate for use as supplementary data for offshore wind resource assessment.

  8. An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

    2017-07-01

    A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

  9. Bicycle helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing: a re-analysis of Walker, 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Olivier

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To re-analyse bicycle overtaking data collected by Walker (2007 with a view to assess factors associated with close passing (<1 m, to adjust for other observed factors in a multivariable analysis, and to assess the extent to which the sample size in the original analysis may have contributed to spurious results. METHOD: A re-analysis of 2,355 motor vehicle passing events recorded by Walker that includes information on cyclist's distance to the kerb, vehicle size and colour, city of observation, time of day, whether the event occurred while in a bikelane and helmet wearing. Each variable was considered for a final, multivariable model using purposeful selection of variables. The analysis was repeated using multiple logistic regression with passing distance dichotomised by the one metre rule. Bootstrap p-values were computed using sample sizes computed from conventional values of power and effect size. RESULTS: The previously observed significant association between passing distance and helmet wearing was not found when dichotomised by the one metre rule. Other factors were found to be significantly associated with close passing including cyclists' distance to the kerb, vehicle size and city of observation (Salisbury or Bristol, UK. P-values from bootstrap samples indicate the significance of helmet wearing resulted from an overly large sample size. CONCLUSIONS: After re-analysis of Walker's data, helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing. The results, however, highlight other more important factors that may inform effective bicycle safety strategies.

  10. Assembling Typical Meteorological Year Data Sets for Building Energy Performance Using Reanalysis and Satellite-Based Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Huld

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a method to generate Typical Meteorological Year (TMY data sets for use in calculations of the energy performance of buildings, based on satellite derived solar radiation data and other meteorological parameters obtained from reanalysis products. The great advantage of this method is the availability of data over large geographical regions, giving global coverage for the reanalysis and continental-scale coverage for the solar radiation data, making it possible to generate TMY data for nearly any location, independent of the availability of meteorological measurement stations in the area. The TMY data generated with this method have been validated against 487 meteorological stations in Europe, by calculating heating and cooling degree days, and by running building energy performance simulations using EnergyPlus. Results show that the generated data sets using a long time series perform better than the TMY data generated from station measurements for building heating calculations and nearly as well for cooling calculations, with relative standard deviations remaining below 6% for heating calculations. TMY data constructed using the proposed method yield somewhat larger deviations compared to TMY data constructed from station data. We outline a number of possibilities for further improvement using data sets that will become available in the near future.

  11. Spatial and temporal variation of surface waves in shallow waters along the eastern Arabian Sea.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anoop, T.R.; SanilKumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.

    We studied the spatial and temporal variation of surface waves along the eastern Arabian Sea during 2011 and 2012. Measured directional wave data at two shallow water locations and re-analysis datasets (ERA-Interim) at 0.751 intervals at four...

  12. The twentieth century Africal easterly waves in reanalysis systems and IPCC simulations, from intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruti, Paolo; Dell' Aquila, Alessandro [ENEA, CR Casaccia, UTMEA-CLIM, Rome (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    The nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of African easterly waves (AEWs) in IPCC-CMIP3 global simulations is investigated in comparison with 40-year NCEP and ERA40 products. AEWs are a major source of atmospheric variability over the Sahel and particularly over West Africa. An accurate representation of AEWs dynamics is therefore an important precondition to skilled climate predictions and seasonal forecasts for this area. We describe the synoptic features of these disturbances and we illustrate a statistical link, at interannual timescale, between Sea Surface Temperature and AEWs activity. At intraseasonal time scale, the models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours in reproducing the synoptic features of the disturbances, namely AEWs amplitude and pattern. It is possible to classify the models into two groups, one localizing intense variability well inside the continental area, and the other exhibiting a weaker variance mostly placed over West Africa. Concerning the inter-annual variability, we point out a statistical link between SST anomalies and AEWs activity that reveals a strong influence of the ENSO events on the variability of the disturbances over the Guinean coasts. Warm/cold ENSO events occur in conjunction with suppressed/enhanced AEWs through upper tropospheric teleconnection bridge. Only two model running at significantly different vertical and horizontal resolution (INM and INGV-SGX) are able to reproduce this mechanism in accordance to what observed in the global reanalysis systems. Our result introduces non-negligible caveats with respect to the ability of most of CMIP3 models in obtaining reliable description of AEWs. (orig.)

  13. Multi-decadal modulations in the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw and the axial symmetry of the Arctic Oscillation signature, as revealed in the 20th century reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Shi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Seesaw relationship in intensity between the surface Aleutian and Icelandic Lows (AIS is a manifestation of atmospheric teleconnection that bridges the interannual variability over the Pacific and Atlantic in particular winter months. Analysis of the 20th Century Reanalysis data reveals that the strength and timing of AIS have undergone multi-decadal modulations in conjunction with those in structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO signature, extracted in the leading mode of interannual sea-level pressure (SLP variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, events of what may be called ‘pure AO’, in which SLP anomalies exhibit a high degree of axial symmetry in association with in-phase SLP variability between the midlatitude Atlantic and Pacific, tended to occur during multi-decadal periods in which the inter-basin teleconnection through AIS was active under the enhanced interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In contrast, the axial symmetry of the AO pattern was apparently reduced during a multi-decadal period in which the AIS teleconnection was inactive under the weakened interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In this period, the leading mode of interannual SLP variability represented a meridional seesaw between the Atlantic and Arctic, which resembles SLP anomaly pattern associated with the cold-ocean/warm-land (COWL temperature pattern. These multi-decadal modulations in interannual AIS signal and the axial symmetry of the interannual AO pattern occurred under multi-decadal changes in the background state that also represented the polarity changes of the COWL-like anomaly pattern.

  14. Assessment of patient-specific surgery effect based on weighted estimation and propensity scoring in the re-analysis of the sciatica trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart J A Mertens

    Full Text Available We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery.

  15. Assessment of Patient-Specific Surgery Effect Based on Weighted Estimation and Propensity Scoring in the Re-Analysis of the Sciatica Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Bart J. A.; Jacobs, Wilco C. H.; Brand, Ronald; Peul, Wilco C.

    2014-01-01

    We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control) arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery. PMID:25353633

  16. Comparison and evaluation of satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products for water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Khan, Abu; Sohel Masud, Md.; Abdulla Hel Kafi, Md.; Sultana, Tashrifa; Lopez Lopez, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    The Brahmaputra River, with a transboundary basin area of approx. 554,500 km2, has its origin on the northern slope of the Himalayas in China, from where it flows through India, Bhutan and finally Bangladesh. Brahmaputra basin's climatology is heavily conditioned by precipitation during the monsoon months, concentrating about the 85 % of the rainfall in this period and originating severe and frequent floods that impact specially the Bangladeshi population in the delta region. Recent campaigns to increase the quality and to share ground-based hydro-meteorological data, in particular precipitation, within the basin have provided limited results. Global rainfall data from satellite and reanalysis may improve the temporal and spatial availability of in-situ observations for advanced water resources management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of several global precipitation products from satellite and reanalysis in comparison with in-situ data to quantify their added value for hydrological modeling at a basin and sub-basin scale for the Brahmaputra River. Precipitation products from CMORPH, TRMM-3B42, GsMAP, WFDEI, MSWEP and various combinations with ground-based data were evaluated at basin and sub-basin level at a daily and monthly temporal resolution. The Brahmaputra was delineated into 54 sub-basins for a more detailed evaluation of the precipitation products. The data were analysed and inter-compared for the time period from 2002 to 2010. Precipitation performance assessment was conducted including several indicators, such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). Preliminary results indicate high correlation and low bias and RMSE values between WFDEI, TRMM-3B42 and CMORPH precipitation and in-situ observations at a monthly time scale. Lower correlations and higher bias and RMSE values were found between GsMAP and MSWEP and ground-observed precipitation

  17. ENSO impact on surface radiative fluxes as observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinker, R. T.; Grodsky, S. A.; Zhang, B.; Busalacchi, A.; Chen, W.

    2017-10-01

    We investigate the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on surface radiative fluxes over the tropical Pacific using satellite observations and fluxes derived from selected atmospheric reanalyses. Agreement between the two in this region is important because reanalysis information is frequently used to assess surface energy budget sensitivity to ENSO. We found that during the traditional ENSO, the maximum variance of anomalous incoming solar radiation is located just west of the dateline and coincides with the area of the largest anomalous SST gradient. It can reach up to 60 W/m2 and lags behind the Niño3 index by about a month, suggesting a response to anomalous SST gradient. The magnitude of longwave anomaly is only half that large and varies in phase with the SST anomaly. Similar anomalies were derived from outputs: from the European Centre for Medium-Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis version 2 (MERRA-2), from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 (R1), and from the Japanese JRA55 reanalysis. Among the four reanalyses used, results from ERA-I are the closest to observations. We have also investigated the surface wind divergence/convergence and found that the main factor limiting eastward excursions of convection is the surface wind convergence. Due to the wind divergence pattern normally present over the eastern cold tongue, anomalous convection extends into the eastern equatorial Pacific only during the strongest warm events. Our analysis also considers the El Niño Modoki events, for which the radiation flux patterns are shifted westward following the SST pattern.

  18. A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikus, Lawrie

    2018-04-01

    A simple closed contour object identification scheme has been applied to the zonal mean monthly mean zonal wind fields from nine global reanalysis data sets for 31 years of the satellite era (1979-2009) to identify objects corresponding to westerly jet streams. The results cluster naturally into six individual jet streams but only the mid-latitude upper-tropospheric jets are considered here. The time series of the jet properties from all reanalyses are decomposed into seasonal means and anomalies, and correlations between variables are evaluated, with the aim of identifying robust features which can form the basis of evaluation metrics for climate model simulations of the twentieth century. There is substantial agreement between all the reanalyses for all jet properties although there are some systematic differences with particular data sets. Some of the results from the object identification applied to the reanalyses are used in a simple example of a model evaluation score for the zonal mean jet seasonal cycle.

  19. Reanalysis of mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth industry workers, with consideration of potential confounding by asbestos exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkoway, H; Heyer, N J; Demers, P A; Gibbs, G W

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential for confounding from asbestos exposure, primarily chrysotile, on the relation between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth (diatomite) workers. METHODS: A reanalysis of a cohort mortality study of diatomite workers was performed to take into account quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure. The reanalysis was limited to a subset of the original cohort, comprising 2266 white men for whom asbestos exposure could be reconstructed with greatest confidence. Comparisons between mortality from lung cancer (standardised mortality ratios (SMR)) were made between rates for 1942-87 for United States white men, and workers cross classified according to cumulative exposures to crystalline silica and asbestos. Comparisons of internal rates, involving Poisson regression modeling, were conducted for exposure to crystalline silica, with and without adjustment for asbestos exposure. Exposures were lagged by 15 years to take into account disease latency. RESULTS: There was an overall excess of lung cancer (SMR 1.41; 52 observed). The SMRs for four categories of increasing crystalline silica among the workers not exposed to asbestos were 1.13, 0.87, 2.14, 2.00. An SMR of 8.31 (three observed) was found for workers with the highest cumulative exposure to both dusts. Internal analysis, after adjustment for asbestos exposure, yielded rate ratios for categories of exposure to crystalline silica: 1.00 (reference), 1.37, 1.80, and 1.79. CONCLUSIONS: Asbestos exposure was not an important confounder of the association between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer in this cohort. Although based on a small number of deaths from lung cancer, the data suggest possible synergy between these exposures. An extended follow up of this cohort is in progress and should enable better assessments of independent and combined effects on risk of lung cancer. PMID:8882123

  20. The characteristics of weakly forced mountain-to-plain precipitation systems based on radar observations and high-resolution reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Xian; Sun, Juanzhen; Chen, Mingxuan; Qie, Xiushu; Wang, Yingchun; Ying, Zhuming

    2017-03-01

    The metropolis of Beijing in China is located on a plain adjacent to high mountains to its northwest and the gulf of the Bohai Sea to its southeast. One of the most challenging forecast problems for Beijing is to predict whether thunderstorms initiating over the mountains will propagate to the adjacent plains and intensify. In this study, 18 warm season convective cases between 2008 and 2013 initiating on the mountains and intensifying on the plains under weak synoptic forcing were analyzed to gain an understanding of their characteristics. The statistical analysis was based on mosaic reflectivity data from six operational Doppler radars and reanalysis data produced by the Four-Dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS). The analysis of the radar reflectivity data shows that convective precipitation strengthened on the plains at certain preferred locations. To investigate the environmental conditions favoring the strengthening of the mountain-to-plain convective systems, statistical diagnoses of the rapid-update (12 min) 3 km reanalyses from VDRAS for the 18 cases were performed by computing the horizontal and temporal means of convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, vertical wind shear, and low-level wind for the plain and mountain regions separately. The results were compared with those from a baseline representing the warm season average and from a set of null cases and found considerable differences in these fields between the three data sets. The mean distributions of VDRAS reanalysis fields were also examined. The results suggest that the convergence between the low-level outflows associated with cold pools and the south-southeasterly environmental flows corresponds well with the preferred locations of convective intensification on the plains.

  1. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data

  2. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-04-01

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  3. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2017-07-04

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  4. Temporal variations in the wind and wave climate at a location in the eastern Arabian Sea based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shanas, P.R.; SanilKumar, V.

    Temporal variations in wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) at a location in the eastern Arabian Sea are studied using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2012. A shallow water location is selected for the study since measured buoy data...

  5. Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, E.; Safari, A.; Mostafaie, A.; Schumacher, M.; Delavar, M.; Awange, J. L.

    2017-05-01

    Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and Iran's six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003-2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to -5.2 and -2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003-2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of -11.1, -6.6, -6.1, -4.8, -4.7, -3.8, and -1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris-Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar -8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs -7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.

  6. The influence of surface versus free-air decoupling on temperature trend patterns in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    N.C. Pepin; C. Daly; J. Lundquist

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed temperature trends from 460 GHCNv2 weather stations in the western United States for 1948¨C2006 to determine whether the extent of decoupling of surface temperatures from the free atmosphere influences past change. At each location we derived monthly indices representative of anticyclonicity using NCEP/NCAR 700 hPa reanalysis pressure fields. The number of...

  7. Evaporation variability under climate warming in five reanalyses and its association with pan evaporation over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Tao; Feng, Taichen; Feng, Guolin

    2015-08-01

    With the motivation to identify actual evapotranspiration (AE) variability under climate warming over China, an assessment is made from five sets of reanalysis data sets [National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), NCEP-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), Interim Reanalysis, and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55)]. Based on comparison with AE estimates calculated using the Budyko equation, all five reanalysis data sets reasonably reproduce the spatial patterns of AE over China, with a clearly southeast-northwest gradient. Overall, JRA-55 (NCEP-DOE) gives the lowest (highest) reanalysis evaporation (RE) values. From 1979 to 2013, dominant modes of RE among five reanalyses are extracted using multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Accordingly, the interdecadal variation of RE is likely driven by the change of temperature, and the interannual variation is constrained by the water supply conditions. Under climate warming, RE increase in the Northwest China, Yangtze-Huaihe river basin, and South China, while they decrease in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and northern and Northeast China. Moreover, the relationship between RE and pan evaporation (PE) are comprehensively evaluated in space-time. Negative correlations are generally confirmed in nonhumid environments, while positive correlations exist in the humid regions. Our analysis supports the interpretation that the relationship between PE and AE was complementary with water control and proportional with energy control. In view of data availability, important differences in spatial variability and the amount of RE can be found in Northwest China, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the Yangtze River Basin. Generally speaking, NCEP-NCAR and MERRA have substantial problems on describing the long-term change of RE; however, there are some inaccuracies in the JRA-55 estimates when focusing on

  8. Reanalysis of Clementine Bistatic Radar Data from the Lunar South Pole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Richard A.; Tyler, G. Leonard

    1998-01-01

    On 9 April 1994 the Clementine spacecraft high-gain antenna was aimed toward the Moon's surface and the resulting 13-cm wavelength radio echoes were received on Earth. Using these data, we have found that the lunar surface generally follows a Lambertian bistatic scattering function sigma(sub 0) = K(sub D)cos(theta(sub i) with K(sub D) approx. 0.003 for the opposite (expected) sense of circular polarization and K(sub D) approx. 0.001 for the same (unexpected) sense. But there are important deviations-of up to 50% in some parts of the echo spectrum-from this simple form. Based on an earlier analysis of these same data, Nozette et al. claimed detection of an enhancement in echoes with right circular polarization from regions near the South Pole in a near-backscatter geometry. Such behavior would be consistent with presence of perhaps large quantities of water ice near the Pole. We have been unable to reproduce that result. Although we find weak suggestions of enhanced echoes at the time of South Pole backscatter, similar features are present at earlier and later times, adjacent frequencies, and in left circular polarization. If enhanced backscatter is present, it is not unique to the South Pole; if not unique to the Pole, then ice is less likely as an explanation for the enhancement.

  9. A Novel Reanalysis Dataset for Improving Seasonal Snowpack Characterization: Application to the Sierra Nevada (USA) Over the Landsat 5 Record (1985-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margulis, S. A.; Cortés, G.; Girotto, M.; Durand, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Highly variable spatial and temporal patterns in snow properties are the norm in complex terrain, yet most mountain regions remain significantly under-sampled with respect to in situ data. We argue that significant strides in our understanding of snow processes in montane regions can be made using a regional reanalysis approach that merges information from uncertain model estimates and globally available remote sensing measurements. While many large-scale reanalysis datasets (e.g. NARR, NCEP/NCAR, MERRA, etc.) exist, their coarse spatial resolution and modeling/assimilation approaches are generally insufficient and/or inaccurate for direct application to analysis of snow processes in remote complex mountainous terrain. The newly developed state-of-the-art snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis approach presented in this paper is focused on snow and is based on the leveraging of long-term Landsat fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) datasets together with existing meteorological reanalysis products and snow modeling, merging all information streams within a data assimilation framework. The method is applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) for the Landsat 5 record (1985-2011). The resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (27 years), and accuracy (mean and root-mean-squared errors less than 3 and 14 cm respectively and correlation greater than 0.94 compared with in situ SWE observations) provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. Preliminary analysis has focused on the peak SWE climatology over the reanalysis period. The pixel-wise peak SWE volume over the domain was found to be 19.9 km3 on average with a range of 9.8-35.8 km3. The 27-year climatology for range-wide peak SWE was found to be 16.4 km3 and occurred on 28 March. The results show that the assumption that 01 April SWE is representative of the peak range-wide SWE can lead to significant underestimation both on average (16%) and on an inter-annual basis (up to 47%). The reanalysis is being

  10. Re-analysis of health and educational impacts of a school-based deworming programme in western Kenya: a pure replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Alexander M; Davey, Calum; Hargreaves, James R; Hayes, Richard J

    2015-10-01

    Helminth (worm) infections cause morbidity among poor communities worldwide. An influential study conducted in Kenya in 1998-99 reported that a school-based drug-and-educational intervention had benefits regarding worm infections and school attendance. Effects were seen among children treated with deworming drugs, untreated children in intervention schools and children in nearby non-intervention schools. Combining these effects, the intervention was reported to increase school attendance by 7.5% in treated children. Effects on other outcomes (worm infections, anaemia, nutritional status and examination performance) were also investigated. In this pure replication, we used data provided by the original authors to re-analyse the study according to their methods. We compared these results against those presented in the original paper. Although most results were reproduced as originally reported, we identified discrepancies of several types between the original findings and re-analysis. For worm infections, re-analysis showed reductions similar to those originally reported. For anaemia prevalence, in contrast to the original findings, re-analysis found no evidence of benefit. For nutritional status, both original findings and re-analysis described modest evidence for a small improvement. For school attendance, re-analysis showed benefits similar to those originally found in intervention schools for both children who did and those who did not receive deworming drugs. However, after correction of coding errors, there was little evidence of an indirect effect on school attendance among children in schools close to intervention schools. Combining these effects gave a total increase in attendance of 3.9% among treated children, which was no longer statistically significant. As in the original results, re-analysis found no effect of the intervention on examination performance. Re-applying analytical approaches originally used, but correcting various errors, we found little

  11. Inconsistencies between precipitation and streamflow data in the Mekong River Basin and the Need for reanalysis products in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa-Cabral, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2006-12-01

    precipitation appears plausible at its native resolution (slightly more than one degree latitude-longitude in the Mekong), the resolution is too coarse to resolve the complex topography of the Mekong basin. We argue that a high quality reanalysis, at a spatial resolution which ideally would exceed that of the North American Regional Reanalysis (about 32 km) would be highly useful in improving understanding of runoff generation in the Mekong, and other important river basins in the region where in situ gauge networks are sparse.

  12. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koller, Josep [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models over more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand

  13. Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project

  14. Spatial and Decadal Variations in Potential Evapotranspiration of China Based on Reanalysis Datasets during 1982–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjun Yao

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration (PET is an important indicator of atmospheric evaporation demand and has been widely used to characterize hydrological change. However, sparse observations of pan evaporation (EP prohibit the accurate characterization of the spatial and temporal patterns of PET over large spatial scales. In this study, we have estimated PET of China using the Penman-Monteith (PM method driven by gridded reanalysis datasets to analyze the spatial and decadal variations of PET in China during 1982–2010. The results show that the estimated PET has decreased on average by 3.3 mm per year (p < 0.05 over China during 1982–1993, while PET began to increase since 1994 by 3.4 mm per year (p < 0.05. The spatial pattern of the linear trend in PET of China illustrates that a widely significant increasing trend in PET appears during 1982–2010 in Northwest China, Central China, Northeast China and South China while there are no obvious variations of PET in other regions. Our findings illustrate that incident solar radiation (Rs is the largest contributor to the variation of PET in China, followed by vapor pressure deficit (VPD, air temperature (Tair and wind speed (WS. However, WS is the primary factor controlling inter-annual variation of PET over Northwest China.

  15. Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

    2017-12-01

    This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

  16. Early-childhood housing mobility and subsequent PTSD in adolescence: a Moving to Opportunity reanalysis [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C. Norris

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In a 2014 report on adolescent mental health outcomes in the Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration (MTO, Kessler et al. reported that, at 10- to 15-year follow-up, boys from households randomized to an experimental housing voucher intervention experienced 12-month prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD at several times the rate of boys from control households. We reanalyze this finding here, bringing to light a PTSD outcome imputation procedure used in the original analysis, but not described in the study report. By bootstrapping with repeated draws from the frequentist sampling distribution of the imputation model used by Kessler et al., and by varying two pseudorandom number generator seeds that fed their analysis, we account for several purely statistical components of the uncertainty inherent in their imputation procedure. We also discuss other sources of uncertainty in this procedure that were not accessible to a formal reanalysis.

  17. A re-analysis of a caries clinical trial by survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannigan, A; O'Mullane, D M; Barry, D; Schäfer, F; Roberts, A J

    2001-02-01

    The decline in caries prevalence, the increases in the level of fluoride exposure, and the lack of placebo control subjects have complicated caries clinical trials in recent times. There has been a substantial increase in the numbers of subjects required for the detection of statistically significant differences between dental products, and hence, the cost of these trials has grown enormously. This study uses a new statistical approach to the analysis of the data from these trials with the ultimate aim of providing a more sensitive method of analysis. The new approach uses survival analysis, where the outcome measure is the survival time of an individual tooth surface. It exploits recent developments in the analysis of clustered survival data where survival times within the same cluster or subject are correlated. To illustrate, the new method of analysis was used for the North Wales, UK, caries clinical trial. It is concluded that survival analysis uses most of the data available in a caries clinical trial, an outcome measure that is easily understood and may lead to a more sensitive method of analysis.

  18. A comparative analysis of the temperature behavior and multiple tropopause events derived from GPS, radiosonde and reanalysis datasets over Argentina, as an example of Southern mid latitudes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G. Lakkis

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent research on climatologies for temperature structure and tropopause parameters in the tropics, based on radiosonde, satellites data and model reanalysis show good agreement between radiosonde (RS and data derived from remote sounding, such as GPS Radio Occultation (GPS RO, and reanalysis. The agreement is remarkably good over and immediately near the tropics. However, in the southern extra tropical region, especially at medium and high latitudes, there are often considerable differences in the temperature profiles as latitudes increases, which depends on the variability of location and evolution of the tropopause. The purpose of this work is to compare the behaviour of temperature profiles derived from GPS RO, daily and monthly ERA 40 reanalysis means and nearby radiosonde measurements in the southern extra tropical region. Argentina serves as an example of latitudes between 30°- 60°S. The data covers 2001-2002 and analyses parameters such as temperature, pressure, and height derived rom radiosonde and satellite data in order to detect single and multiple tropopause events. The results show that in most cases are GPS RO more closely related to RS measurements than to reanalysis profiles, both for daily values, monthly means and their standard deviations. However, GPS RO deviations increase with respect to RS for heights above the tropopause, i.e., in the stratosphere, and decrease into the troposphere. Radiosonde and GPS appear to be in good agreement for tropopause temperatures and heights estimates when a single tropopause (LRT1 is considered, but with decreasing agreement as latitudes increase. Furthermore, while single and double tropopause events can be detected in RS observations this is less common for the GPS RO retrievals.

  19. The Mesoscale Eddies and Kuroshio Transport in the Western North Pacific East of Taiwan from 8-year (2003-2010) Model Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-25

    the Navy Opera- tional Global Atmospheric Prediction System (Rosmond 1992). In the heat flux, solar radiation is retained separately , while the rest...in space and time. An oceanographic reanalysis product, on the other hand, is rarely available because global/re- gional ocean operational systems...10.1029/ 2005GL025416 Ko DS, Chao SY, Huang P, Lin SF (2009) Anomalous upwelling in Nan Wan: July 2008. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 20(6):839–852. doi:10. 3319/TAO

  20. Evaluation of ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE R2 and CFSR Reanalysis precipitation Data using Gauge Observation over Ethiopia for a period of 33 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The vital demand of reliable climatic and hydrologic data of fine spatial and temporal resolution triggered the employment of reanalysis datasets as a surrogate in most of the hydrological modelling exercises. This study examines the performance of four widely used reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE R2, MERRA and CFSR, in reproducing the spatio-temporal characteristics of observed daily precipitation of different stations spread across Ethiopia, East Africa. The appropriateness of relying on reanalysis datasets for hydrologic modelling, climate change impact assessment and regional modelling studies is assessed using various statistical and non-parametric techniques. ERA-Interim is found to exhibit higher correlation and least root mean square error values with observed daily rainfall, which is followed by CFSR and MERRA in most of the stations. The variability of daily precipitation is better captured by ERA, CFSR and MERRA, while NCEP-DOE R2 overestimated the spread of the precipitation data. While ERA overestimates the probability of moderate rainfall, it is seemingly better in capturing the probability of low rainfall. CFSR captures the overall distribution reasonable well. NCEP-DOE R2 appears to be outperforming others in capturing the probabilities of higher magnitude rainfall. Climatological seasonal cycle and the characteristics of wet and dry spells are compared further, where ERA seemingly replicates the pattern more effectively. However, observed rainfall exhibits higher frequency of short wet spells when compared to that of any reanalysis datasets. MERRA relatively underperforms in simulating the wet spell characteristics of observed daily rainfall. CFSR overestimates the mean wet spell length and mean dry spell length. Spatial trend analysis indicates that the northern and central western Ethiopia show increasing trends, whereas the Central and Eastern Ethiopia as well as the Southern Ethiopia stations show either no trend

  1. Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

    2001-01-01

    In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

  2. The Re-Analysis of Ozone Profile Data from a 41-Year Series of SBUV Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramarova, Natalya; Frith, Stacey; Bhartia, Pawan K.; McPeters, Richard; Labow, Gordon; Taylor, Steven; Fisher, Bradford

    2012-01-01

    also be minimized by combining layers of data, and we will discuss recommendations for this approach as well. The SBUV ozone profiles have been intensively validated against satellite profile measurements obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounders (MLS) (on board the UARS and AURA satellites), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). Also, we compare coincident and collocated SBUV ozone retrievals with observations made by ground-based instruments, such as microwave spectrometers, lidars, Umkehr instruments and balloon-borne ozonosondes. Finally, we compare the SBUV ozone profiles with output from the NASA GSFC GEOS-CCM model. In the stratosphere between 25 and 1 hPa the mean biases and standard deviations are within 5% for monthly mean ozone profiles. Above and below this layer the vertical resolution of the SBUV algorithm decreases and the effects of vertical smoothing should be taken into account. Though the SBUV algorithm has a coarser vertical resolution in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, it is capable of precisely estimating the integrated ozone column between the surface and 25 hPa. The time series of the tropospheric - lower stratospheric ozone column derived from SBUV agrees within 5% with the corresponding values observed by an ensemble of ozone sonde stations in North Hemisphere. Drift of the ozone time series obtained from each SBUV(/2) instrument relative to ground based and satellite measurements are evaluated and some features of individual SBUV(l2) instruments are discussed. In addition to evaluating individual instruments against independent observations, we also focus on the instrument to instrument consistency in the series. Overall, Version 8.6 ozone profiles obtained from two different SBUV(l2) instruments compare within a couple of percent during overlap periods and are consistently varying in time, with some exceptions. Some of the noted discrepancies might

  3. Reanalysis of Epidemiological Investigation of Cancer Risk among People Residing near Nuclear Power Plants in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jeong-Min; Kim, Myoung-Hee; Ju, Young-Su; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Ha, Mina; Kim, Bong-Kyu; Zoh, Kyung Ehi; Paek, Domyung

    2018-03-09

    Background : A 20-year follow-up study on cancer incidence among people living near nuclear power plants in South Korea ended in 2011 with a finding of significantly, but inconsistently, elevated thyroid cancer risk for females. Reanalysis of the original study was carried out to examine the dose-response relationship further, and to investigate any evidence of detection bias. Methods : In addition to replicating the original Cox proportional hazards models, nested case-control analysis was carried out for all subjects and for four different birth cohorts to examine the effects of excluding participants with pre-existing cancer history at enrollment. The potential for detection bias was investigated using the records of medical utilization and voluntary health checks of comparison groups. Results : The overall risk profile of the total sample was similar to that of the original study. However, in the stratified analysis of four birth cohorts, the cancer risk among people living near nuclear power plants became higher in younger birth cohorts. This was especially true for thyroid cancers of females (hazard ratio (HR) 3.38) and males (HR 1.74), female breast cancers (HR 2.24), and radiation-related cancers (HR 1.59 for males, HR 1.77 for females), but not for radiation-insensitive cancers (HR 0.59 for males, HR 0.98 for females). Based on medical records and health check reports, we found no differences between comparison groups that could have led to detection bias. Conclusions : The overall results suggest elevated risk of radiation-related cancers among residents living near nuclear power plants, controlling for the selective survival effect. This is further supported by the lack of evidence of detection bias and by records of environmental exposure from radiation waste discharge.

  4. Discrete versus multiple word displays: A re-analysis of studies comparing dyslexic and typically developing children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierluigi eZoccolotti

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The study examines whether impairments in reading a text can be explained by a deficit in word decoding or an additional deficit in the processes governing the integration of reading subcomponents (including eye movement programming and pronunciation should also be postulated. We report a re-analysis of data from eleven previous experiments conducted in our lab where the reading performance on single, discrete word displays as well multiple displays (texts, and in few cases also word lists was investigated in groups of dyslexic children and typically developing readers. The analysis focuses on measures of time and not accuracy.Across experiments, dyslexic children are slower and more variable than typically developing readers in reading texts as well as vocal RTs to singly presented words; the dis-homogeneity in variability between groups points to the inappropriateness of standard measures of size effect (such as Cohen’s d, and suggests the use of the ratio between groups’ performance. The mean ratio for text reading is 1.95 across experiments. Mean ratio for vocal RTs for singly presented words is considerably smaller (1.52. Furthermore, this latter value is probably an overestimation as considering total reading times (i.e., a measure including also the pronunciation component considerably reduces the group difference in vocal RTs (1.19 according to Martelli et al., 2014. The ratio difference between single and multiple displays does not depend upon the presence of a semantic context in the case of texts as large ratios are also observed with lists of unrelated words (though studies testing this aspect were few.We conclude that, if care is taken in using appropriate comparisons, the deficit in reading texts or lists of words is appreciably greater than that revealed with discrete word presentations. Thus, reading multiple stimuli present a specific, additional challenge to dyslexic children indicating that models of reading should

  5. Reanalysis of Epidemiological Investigation of Cancer Risk among People Residing near Nuclear Power Plants in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong-Min Kim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: A 20-year follow-up study on cancer incidence among people living near nuclear power plants in South Korea ended in 2011 with a finding of significantly, but inconsistently, elevated thyroid cancer risk for females. Reanalysis of the original study was carried out to examine the dose–response relationship further, and to investigate any evidence of detection bias. Methods: In addition to replicating the original Cox proportional hazards models, nested case-control analysis was carried out for all subjects and for four different birth cohorts to examine the effects of excluding participants with pre-existing cancer history at enrollment. The potential for detection bias was investigated using the records of medical utilization and voluntary health checks of comparison groups. Results: The overall risk profile of the total sample was similar to that of the original study. However, in the stratified analysis of four birth cohorts, the cancer risk among people living near nuclear power plants became higher in younger birth cohorts. This was especially true for thyroid cancers of females (hazard ratio (HR 3.38 and males (HR 1.74, female breast cancers (HR 2.24, and radiation-related cancers (HR 1.59 for males, HR 1.77 for females, but not for radiation-insensitive cancers (HR 0.59 for males, HR 0.98 for females. Based on medical records and health check reports, we found no differences between comparison groups that could have led to detection bias. Conclusions: The overall results suggest elevated risk of radiation-related cancers among residents living near nuclear power plants, controlling for the selective survival effect. This is further supported by the lack of evidence of detection bias and by records of environmental exposure from radiation waste discharge.

  6. Testing the mindfulness-to-meaning theory: Evidence for mindful positive emotion regulation from a reanalysis of longitudinal data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric L Garland

    Full Text Available The Mindfulness to Meaning Theory (MMT provides a detailed process model of mindful positive emotion regulation.We conducted a post-hoc reanalysis of longitudinal data (N = 107 derived from a RCT of mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR versus cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT for social anxiety disorder to model the core constructs of the MMT (attentional control, decentering, broadened awareness, reappraisal, and positive affect in a multivariate path analysis.Findings indicated that increases in attentional control from baseline to post-training predicted increases in decentering by 3 months post-treatment (p<.01 that in turn predicted increases in broadened awareness of interoceptive and exteroceptive data by 6 months post-treatment (p<.001. In turn, broadened awareness predicted increases in the use of reappraisal by 9 months post-treatment (p<.01, which culminated in greater positive affect at 12 months post-treatment (p<.001. MBSR led to significantly greater increases in decentering (p<.05 and broadened awareness than CBT (p<.05. Significant indirect effects indicated that increases in decentering mediated the effect of mindfulness training on broadening awareness, which in turn mediated enhanced reappraisal efficacy.Results suggest that the mechanisms of change identified by the MMT form an iterative chain that promotes long-term increases in positive affectivity. Though these mechanisms may reflect common therapeutic factors that cut across mindfulness-based and cognitive-behavioral interventions, MBSR specifically boosts the MMT cycle by producing significantly greater increases in decentering and broadened awareness than CBT, providing support for the foundational assumption in the MMT that mindfulness training may be a key means of stimulating downstream positive psychological processes.

  7. High-resolution dynamical downscaling of re-analysis data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Ricardo; Martín-Torres, Javier

    2018-03-01

    We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the climate of the Kerguelen Islands (49° S, 69° E) and investigate its inter-annual variability. Here, we have dynamically downscaled 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over these islands at 3-km horizontal resolution. The model output is found to agree well with the station and radiosonde data at the Port-aux-Français station, the only location in the islands for which observational data is available. An analysis of the seasonal mean WRF data showed a general increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature with elevation. The largest seasonal rainfall amounts occur at the highest elevations of the Cook Ice Cap in winter where the summer mean temperature is around 0 °C. Five modes of variability are considered: conventional and Modoki El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Subtropical IOD (SIOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is concluded that a key mechanism by which these modes impact the local climate is through interaction with the diurnal cycle in particular in the summer season when it has a larger magnitude. One of the most affected regions is the area just to the east of the Cook Ice Cap extending into the lower elevations between the Gallieni and Courbet Peninsulas. The WRF simulation shows that despite the small annual variability, the atmospheric flow in the Kerguelen Islands is rather complex which may also be the case for the other islands located in the Southern Hemisphere at similar latitudes.

  8. Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

  9. Regime-Dependent Differences in Surface Freshwater Exchange Estimates Over the Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Sun; Behrangi, Ali

    2018-01-01

    Differences in gridded precipitation (P), surface evaporation (E), and the resultant surface freshwater exchange (P - E) among different products over the ocean are diagnosed as functions of moisture advection (Qadvt) and moisture tendency by dynamical convergence (Qcnvg). Compared to the GPCP product, the TRMM3B42 product captures higher frequency of precipitation with larger extreme precipitation rates in regimes of deep convection and more light rain detections in regimes of frequent occurrence of boundary layer clouds. Discrepancies in E depend on moisture flux divergence, with the OAFlux product having the largest E in regimes of divergence. Discrepancies in mean P - E in deep convective regimes are highly influenced by differences in precipitation, with the TRMM3B42 product yielding P - E histograms closer to those inferred from the reanalysis moisture flux convergence. In nonconvergent regimes, observation-based P - E histograms skew toward positive values while the inferred reanalysis histograms are symmetric about the means.

  10. Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

  11. Surface roughness effect on ultracold neutron interaction with a wall and implications for computer simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Steyerl, A.; Malik, S. S.; Desai, A. M.; Kaufman, C.

    2009-01-01

    We review the diffuse scattering and the loss coefficient in ultracold neutron reflection from slightly rough surfaces, report a surprising reduction in loss coefficient due to roughness, and discuss the possibility of transition from quantum treatment to ray optics. The results are used in a computer simulation of neutron storage in a recent neutron lifetime experiment that re-ported a large discrepancy of neutron lifetime with the current particle data value. Our partial re-analysis suggest...

  12. Reanalysis of Zion risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, C.K.; Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.; Tingle, A.; Chun, M.

    1988-01-01

    As part of the NUREG-1150 effort, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has undertaken a risk analysis of Zion Unit 1 adopting the methodology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining Program. Resulting of the preliminary version of that analysis are reported here. Completion plans for the Zion study are described also

  13. Circumpolar polynya characteristics in the Arctic between 2002/2003 and 2014/2015 as derived from MODIS thermal infrared imagery and ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preußer, Andreas; Willmes, Sascha; Heinemann, Günther; Paul, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In this pan-Arctic study, high-resolution MODIS thermal infrared satellite data are used to infer spatial and temporal characteristics of 16 prominent coastal polynya regions and leads over the entire Arctic basin. Thin-ice thickness distributions (≤ 20cm) are calculated from MODIS ice-surface temperatures swath-data (MOD/MYD29), combined with ECMWF ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data in an energy balance model for the last 13 winter-seasons (2002/2003 to 2014/2015; November to March). From all available swath-data, (quasi-) daily thin-ice thickness composites are computed in order to derive valuable quantities such as polynya area and total thermodynamic ice production. Two different cloud-cover correction schemes are applied to account for cloud and data gaps in the MODIS composites. During the investigated period, the average total wintertime accumulated ice production in all 16 polynya regions is estimated with about 1481 ± 262 km³, plus an additional 65 ± 59 km³ if leads in the central Arctic Ocean are taken into consideration. The largest contributions originate from the Kara Sea region and the North Water polynya (both ~19%) as well as scattered smaller polynyas in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (all combined ~15%), while other well-known sites of polynya formation (Laptev Sea, Chukchi Sea) show smaller contributions with around 2-7%. Compared to another recently published pan-Arctic polynya study using coarser resolution passive microwave remote sensing data, our estimates are considerably larger due to distinct differences regarding the observed winter-period and applied polynya masks/reference areas. In addition, the use of high-resolution MODIS data increases the capability to resolve small scale (> 2km) thin-ice features such as leads, which therefore contribute to our ice production estimates. Despite the short record of 13 winter-seasons, positive trends in ice production can be detected for some regions of the eastern Arctic (most

  14. Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

    2018-03-01

    The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the

  15. Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations of a four-zone structure using five spacecraft and the VERB code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y. Y.; Kondrashov, D.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

    2014-11-01

    Obtaining the global state of radiation belt electrons through reanalysis is an important step toward validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics and for identification of new physical processes. In the current study, reanalysis of radiation belt electrons is achieved through data assimilation of five spacecraft with the 3-D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code using a split-operator Kalman filter technique. The spacecraft data are cleaned for noise, saturation effects, and then intercalibrated on an individual energy channel basis, by considering phase space density conjunctions in the T96 field model. Reanalysis during the CRRES era reveals a never-before-reported four-zone structure in the Earth's radiation belts during the 24 March 1991 shock-induced injection superstorm: (1) an inner belt, (2) the high-energy shock-injection belt, (3) a remnant outer radiation belt, and (4) a second outer radiation belt. The third belt formed near the same time as the second belt and was later enhanced across keV to MeV energies by a second particle injection observed by CRRES and the Northern Solar Terrestrial Array riometer network. During the recovery phase of the storm, the fourth belt was created near L*=4RE, lasting for several days. Evidence is provided that the fourth belt was likely created by a dominant local heating process. This study outlines the necessity to consider all diffusive processes acting simultaneously and the advantage of supporting ground-based data in quantifying the observed radiation belt dynamics. It is demonstrated that 3-D data assimilation can resolve various nondiffusive processes and provides a comprehensive picture of the electron radiation belts.

  16. Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

    2006-11-15

    A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

  17. An ensemble estimation of the variability of upper-ocean heat content over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with multi-ocean reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Jieshun [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Balmaseda, Magdalena A. [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-15

    Current ocean reanalysis systems contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the subsurface oceanic state, especially in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Given this level of uncertainty, it is important to develop useful strategies to identify realistic low-frequency signals optimally from these analyses. In this paper, we present an ''ensemble'' method to estimate the variability of upper-ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Atlantic based on multiple-ocean reanalysis products. Six state-of-the-art global ocean reanalysis products, all of which are widely used in the climate research community, are examined in terms of their HC variability from 1979 to 2007. The conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the HC anomalies from each individual analysis indicates that their leading modes show significant qualitative differences among analyses, especially for the first modes, although some common characteristics are discernable. Then, the simple arithmetic average (or ensemble mean) is applied to produce an ensemble dataset, i.e., the EM analysis. The leading EOF modes of the EM analysis show quantitatively consistent spatial-temporal patterns with those derived from an alternative EOF technique that maximizes signal-to-noise ratio of the six analyses, which suggests that the ensemble mean generates HC fields with the noise reduced to an acceptable level. The quality of the EM analysis is further validated against AVISO altimetry sea level anomaly (SLA) data and PIRATA mooring station data. A regression analysis with the AVISO SLA data proved that the leading modes in the EM analysis are realistic. It also demonstrated that some reanalysis products might contain higher level of intrinsic noise than others. A quantitative correlation analysis indicates that the HC fields are more realistic in the EM analysis than in individual products, especially over the equatorial regions, with signals contributed from all ensemble members. A

  18. How do uncertainties in NCEP R2 and CFSR surface fluxes impact tropical ocean simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Caihong; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun; Behringer, David; Yu, Lisan

    2017-11-01

    NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) surface fluxes are widely used by the research community to understand surface flux climate variability, and to drive ocean models as surface forcings. However, large discrepancies exist between these two products, including (1) stronger trade winds in CFSR than in R2 over the tropical Pacific prior 2000; (2) excessive net surface heat fluxes into ocean in CFSR than in R2 with an increase in difference after 2000. The goals of this study are to examine the sensitivity of ocean simulations to discrepancies between CFSR and R2 surface fluxes, and to assess the fidelity of the two products. A set of experiments, where an ocean model was driven by a combination of surface flux components from R2 and CFSR, were carried out. The model simulations were contrasted to identify sensitivity to different component of the surface fluxes in R2 and CFSR. The accuracy of the model simulations was validated against the tropical moorings data, altimetry SSH and SST reanalysis products. Sensitivity of ocean simulations showed that temperature bias difference in the upper 100 m is mostly sensitive to the differences in surface heat fluxes, while depth of 20 °C (D20) bias difference is mainly determined by the discrepancies in momentum fluxes. D20 simulations with CFSR winds agree with observation well in the western equatorial Pacific prior 2000, but have large negative bias similar to those with R2 winds after 2000, partly because easterly winds over the central Pacific were underestimated in both CFSR and R2. On the other hand, the observed temperature variability is well reproduced in the tropical Pacific by simulations with both R2 and CFSR fluxes. Relative to the R2 fluxes, the CFSR fluxes improve simulation of interannual variability in all three tropical oceans to a varying degree. The improvement in the tropical Atlantic is most significant and is largely attributed to differences in surface winds.

  19. Reanalysis of Wupus agilis (Early Cretaceous) of Chongqing, China as a Large Avian Trace: Differentiating between Large Bird and Small Non-Avian Theropod Tracks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Lida; Buckley, Lisa G; McCrea, Richard T; Lockley, Martin G; Zhang, Jianping; Piñuela, Laura; Klein, Hendrik; Wang, Fengping

    2015-01-01

    Trace fossils provide the only records of Early Cretaceous birds from many parts of the world. The identification of traces from large avian track-makers is made difficult given their overall similarity in size and tridactyly in comparison with traces of small non-avian theropods. Reanalysis of Wupus agilis from the Early Cretaceous (Aptian-Albian) Jiaguan Formation, one of a small but growing number of known avian-pterosaur track assemblages, of southeast China determines that these are the traces of a large avian track-maker, analogous to extant herons. Wupus, originally identified as the trace of a small non-avian theropod track-maker, is therefore similar in both footprint and trackway characteristics to the Early Cretaceous (Albian) large avian trace Limiavipes curriei from western Canada, and Wupus is reassigned to the ichnofamily Limiavipedidae. The reanalysis of Wupus reveals that it and Limiavipes are distinct from similar traces of small to medium-sized non-avian theropods (Irenichnites, Columbosauripus, Magnoavipes) based on their relatively large footprint length to pace length ratio and higher mean footprint splay, and that Wupus shares enough characters with Limiavipes to be reassigned to the ichnofamily Limiavipedidae. The ability to discern traces of large avians from those of small non-avian theropods provides more data on the diversity of Early Cretaceous birds. This analysis reveals that, despite the current lack of body fossils, large wading birds were globally distributed in both Laurasia and Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous.

  20. Reanalysis of Wupus agilis (Early Cretaceous of Chongqing, China as a Large Avian Trace: Differentiating between Large Bird and Small Non-Avian Theropod Tracks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Xing

    Full Text Available Trace fossils provide the only records of Early Cretaceous birds from many parts of the world. The identification of traces from large avian track-makers is made difficult given their overall similarity in size and tridactyly in comparison with traces of small non-avian theropods. Reanalysis of Wupus agilis from the Early Cretaceous (Aptian-Albian Jiaguan Formation, one of a small but growing number of known avian-pterosaur track assemblages, of southeast China determines that these are the traces of a large avian track-maker, analogous to extant herons. Wupus, originally identified as the trace of a small non-avian theropod track-maker, is therefore similar in both footprint and trackway characteristics to the Early Cretaceous (Albian large avian trace Limiavipes curriei from western Canada, and Wupus is reassigned to the ichnofamily Limiavipedidae. The reanalysis of Wupus reveals that it and Limiavipes are distinct from similar traces of small to medium-sized non-avian theropods (Irenichnites, Columbosauripus, Magnoavipes based on their relatively large footprint length to pace length ratio and higher mean footprint splay, and that Wupus shares enough characters with Limiavipes to be reassigned to the ichnofamily Limiavipedidae. The ability to discern traces of large avians from those of small non-avian theropods provides more data on the diversity of Early Cretaceous birds. This analysis reveals that, despite the current lack of body fossils, large wading birds were globally distributed in both Laurasia and Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous.

  1. A reanalysis of five studies on sexual orientation and the relative length of the 2nd and 4th fingers (the 2D:4D ratio).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFadden, Dennis; Loehlin, John C; Breedlove, S Marc; Lippa, Richard A; Manning, John T; Rahman, Qazi

    2005-06-01

    Five studies have examined the relationship between sexual orientation and the relative lengths of the 2nd and 4th fingers (the 2D:4D ratio). Although differences have commonly been found between heterosexuals and homosexuals, the direction of the difference has not been consistent across studies. The original data from all five studies were reanalyzed in a search for possible explanations of the discrepancies. Because ethnicity is known to affect the 2D:4D ratio, the reanalysis focused on participants who identified themselves as White or Caucasian, the ethnic group that was most numerous in all of the studies. Age differences did not account for the discrepancies. Differences in variability within different groups were minor. One interesting result to emerge from the reanalysis was that the 2D:4D ratios for the homosexual groups were relatively similar across studies. It was the 2D:4D values for the heterosexual participants that varied most, particularly between the USA and the British studies, and these were responsible for many of the discrepancies in the conclusions across studies. The constancy of the 2D:4D ratio for the White homosexuals did not appear to extend to homosexuals of three other ethnicities, and there were also subpopulation differences related to right or left hands.

  2. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  3. ENSO influence on the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone as derived from the satellite observations, reanalysis and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiaolu; Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Bian, Jianchun; Mueller, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The extremes of ENSO patterns have impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate. The ENSO activities typically show pronounced features in boreal winter time, but some prolonged events may last for months or years. In this study we analyze the influence of ENSO on the atmospheric composition in the tropical and extra-tropical UTLS region in the months following strong ENSO events. In particular, we are interested in the impact of ENSO on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone. Using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), we define two composites starting from strong El Nino and La Nina winters (|MEI|>0.9) and analyze the anomalies caused by them in the following months. To quantify the differences in dynamics, the velocity potential (VP) and the stream function (SF) are calculated based on ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. SF shows that during winter the horizontal flow in the tropical UTLS is dominated by two equatorially symmetric anticyclones resembling the well-known Matsuno-Gill solution. In summer, the anticyclone in the North Hemisphere is shifted to the ASM region. VP shows that the centers of the divergent part of the flow lie in the West Tropical Pacific and Central Pacific for La Nina and El Nino winters, respectively. These centers move northwestwards during spring and summer. The anticyclone, subtropical jet and the divergent part of the flow after La Nina winters are significantly stronger than after El Nino winters. Based on the MLS measurements of CO, H2O and O3 from 2004 to 2015, we also discuss the respective anomalies at the tropopause level for the El Nino/La Nina composites. EL Nino composite of CO shows higher values in the tropical region not only during winter but also during spring and summer. La Nina composite of H2O shows low anomaly over Maritime Continent which spread over the whole tropics until summer. The H2O

  4. Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual

  5. Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Lin, X.

    2006-01-01

    The GCE (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble) model, which has been developed and improved at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades, is considered as one of the finer and state-of-the-art CRMs (Cloud Resolving Models) in the research community. As the chosen CRM for a NASA Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Project, GCE has recently been successfully upgraded into an MPI (Message Passing Interface) version with which great improvement has been achieved in computational efficiency, scalability, and portability. By basically using the large-scale temperature and moisture advective forcing, as well as the temperature, water vapor and wind fields obtained from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments such as SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) and KWAJEX (Kwajalein Experiment), our recent 2-D and 3-D GCE simulations were able to capture detailed convective systems typical of the targeted (simulated) regions. The GEOS-3 [Goddard EOS (Earth Observing System) Version-3] reanalysis data have also been proposed and successfully implemented for usage in the proposed/performed GCE long-term simulations (i.e., aiming at producing massive simulated cloud data -- Cloud Library) in compensating the scarcity of real field experimental data in both time and space (location). Preliminary 2-D or 3-D pilot results using GEOS-3 data have generally showed good qualitative agreement (yet some quantitative difference) with the respective numerical results using the SCSMEX observations. The first objective of this paper is to ensure the GEOS-3 data quality by comparing the model results obtained from several pairs of simulations using the real observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis data. The different large-scale advective forcing obtained from these two kinds of resources (i.e., sounding observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis) has been considered as a major critical factor in producing various model results. The second objective of this paper is therefore to

  6. Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

  7. Atmospheric conditions of meso-scale convective systems over Colombia, during 1998 according to the mission TRMM and the re-analysis NCEP/NCAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejia, John Freddy; Poveda, German

    2005-01-01

    Diagnostics of prevalent atmospheric conditions during the life cycle of meso-scale convective systems (MCSs) over Colombia and the eastern tropical pacific are developed using satellite data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Atmospheric stability indices such as CAPE, CINE, LI, and equivalent potential temperature are quantified, as well as kinematical indices such as relative vertical vorticity and vertical wind shear. Atmospheric environments associated with MCS are studied for 1998; both as long-term means but also in terms of the seasonal cycle large-scale atmospheric indices are quantified for the most intense precipitation events within MCSs. Relationships between those indices are estimated, and atmospheric conditions are studied for the life cycle of MCSs, including antecedent and subsequent conditions surrounding MCSs activity

  8. Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast cancer: Breast cancer and abortion: collaborative reanalysis of data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 83000 women with breast cancer from 16 countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beral, V.; Bull, D.; Doll, R.; Peto, R.; Reeves, G.; van den Brandt, P.A.; Goldbohm, R.A.

    2004-01-01

    Breast cancer and abortion: collaborative reanalysis of data from 53 epidemiological studies, including 83?000 women with breast cancer from 16 countries. Beral V, Bull D, Doll R, Peto R, Reeves G; Collaborative Group on Hormonal Factors in Breast Cancer. BACKGROUND: The Collaborative Group on

  9. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis wind products with in situ wave glider wind observations in the Southern Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schmidt, KM

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Surface ocean wind datasets are required to be of high spatial and temporal resolution and high precision to accurately force or be assimilated into coupled atmosphere–ocean numerical models and to understand ocean–atmospheric processes. In situ...

  10. Surface meteorology and Solar Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

    The Release 5.1 Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data contains parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems. Parameters fall under 11 categories including: Solar cooking, solar thermal applications, solar geometry, tilted solar panels, energy storage systems, surplus product storage systems, cloud information, temperature, wind, other meteorological factors, and supporting information. This latest release contains new parameters based on recommendations by the renewable energy industry and it is more accurate than previous releases. On-line plotting capabilities allow quick evaluation of potential renewable energy projects for any region of the world. The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Mission Objectives] The SSE project contains insolation and meteorology data intended to aid in the development of renewable energy systems. Collaboration between SSE and technology industries such as the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables ( HOMER ) may aid in designing electric power systems that employ some combination of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, or diesel generators to produce electricity. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

  11. The impact of upper tropospheric dynamics on surface air quality over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kollonige, Debra E.

    Monitoring air quality and source attribution at the surface requires a vast understanding of radiative and dynamical e.ects in the lower atmosphere to capture influential processes a.ecting human health, the environment, and current pollutant standards. In order to accurately determine all sources impacting lower atmospheric composition, a more thorough comprehension of the dynamical, chemical, and radiative coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere is required. Particularly significant is the transport or exchange of trace gases (i.e. ozone), both natural and anthropogenic, between the stratosphere and troposphere also known as stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). During previous research campaigns, STE was found to contribute to the tropospheric ozone budget. In this work, a plan was designed to determine whether or not stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) was a viable mechanism for elevated ozone at the surface, particularly in cases where unhealthy air quality conditions were detected. An investigation of several case studies in which high levels of surface ozone appear to originate from the stratosphere shows that a variety of dynamical pro cesses from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere are involved. Starting with the quasi-geostrophic equations of vertical and horizontal motion, dynamical parameters can be derived and evaluated from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) meteorological fields. Reanalysis diagnostics, such as Q-vector, can locate the prevailing STT mechanism and capture the extent of vertical transport and mixing into the lower troposphere. Back trajectories from the UMBC-LT model released at the ground sites present additional support for stratospheric contribution to measured ozone levels. Along with the reanalysis dataset, a combination of satellite-retrieved and surface observations of chemical tracers were utilized to demonstrate the plausibility of a stratospheric source and to rule out anthropogenic

  12. GREP: Evaluation of the Copernicus Marine Service Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product: deriving uncertainty estimates for 3D T and S variability in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desportes, Charles; Drévillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann; Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Régnier, Charly; Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Petterson, Drew; Wood, Richard; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Zuo, Hao

    2017-04-01

    Global ocean reanalyses are homogeneous 3D gridded descriptions of the physical state of the ocean spanning several decades, produced with a numerical ocean model constrained with data assimilation of satellite and in situ observations. The evaluation of global ocean reanalyses, and of how well they capture ocean variability, has progressed these recent years thanks to the CLIVAR/GSOP/GODAE Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project ORA-IP (Balmaseda et al 2015). During the MyOcean project, several high resolution (1/4° horizontal grid) reanalyses based on NEMO but produced with different tunings and by different institutes, were evaluated jointly using common validation guidelines (Masina et al, 2015). The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service CMEMS (marine.copernicus.eu) Global Monitoring and Forecasting Center now takes advantage of the diversity of ocean reanalyses currently developed with that same NEMO model grid (ORCA025 at ¼°) to propose a multi-model ensemble product, which spread allows uncertainties or error bars to be estimated. In a number of regions, the ensemble mean may even provide a more reliable estimate than any individual reanalysis product. Four reanalyses have been selected to contribute to the project; GLORYS2V4 from Mercator Ocean (Fr), ORAS5 from ECMWF, FOAM/GloSea from Met Office (UK), and C-GLORS from CMCC (It). The four different time series of global ocean 3D monthly estimates have been post-processed to create the new product called GREP (Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product), covering the recent period during which altimetry observations are available: 1993-2015. Starting from April 20th 2017, the ensemble mean and standard deviation of the ensemble, as well as the four individual members for the period 1993-2015, are thus made available on a 1°x1° grid and monthly frequency. The time series will be extended by one year each year. In the presentation, we will describe the results of the scientific qualification of the

  13. An assessment of tropical cyclone representation in a regional reanalysis and a shape metric methodology for studying the evolving precipitation structure prior to and during landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zick, Stephanie E.

    Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is intricately organized with multiple scales of phenomena collaborating to harness the massive energy required to support these storms. During landfall, a TC leaves the tropical oceanic environment and encounters a wide range of continental air mass regimes. Although evolving precipitation patterns are qualitatively observed in these storms during landfall, the timing and spatial variability of these structural changes have yet to be quantified or documented. This dissertation integrates meteorological and geographic concepts to explore the representation and evolution of TC rainfall at the crucial time of landfall when coastal and inland communities and environments are most vulnerable to TC-associated flooding. This research begins with a two-part assessment of TC representation in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which is selected for its documented skill in characterizing North American precipitation patterns. Due to the sparsely available data over the tropical oceans, spatial biases exist in both global and regional reanalysis datasets. However, within the NARR the introduction of over-ocean precipitation assimilation in 2004 leads to an improved analysis of TC warm core structure, which results in an improved precipitation forecast. Collectively, these studies highlight the need for sophisticated observational and data assimilation systems. Specifically, the development of new, novel precipitation assimilation techniques will be valuable to the construction of better-quality forecasting tools with more authentic TC representation. In the third study, the fundamental geographic concept of compactness is utilized to construct a shape metric methodology for investigating (a) the overall evolution of and (b) the spatiotemporal positions of significant changes to synoptic-scale precipitation structure. These metrics encompass the characteristic geometries of TCs moving into the mid-latitudes: asymmetry

  14. Mercury bioaccumulation and bioaccumulation factors for Everglades mosquitofish as related to sulfate: a re-analysis of Julian II (2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollman, Curtis D; Axelrad, Donald M

    2014-11-01

    The Everglades, an ecosystem of international significance, has elevated biota mercury levels representing risk to human and wildlife consumers of fish. Given the critical role of sulfate in the methylation of mercury, and because there is a significant agricultural contribution, one potential means of reducing these mercury levels is reducing Everglades sulfate inputs. Julian II (Bull Environ Contam Toxicol 90:329-332, 2013) conducted regression modeling of the relationship between surface water sulfate concentrations and Gambusia spp. mercury bioconcentration factors across the major hydrologic subunits of the Everglades, and used those results to draw conclusions about the role of sulfate in the cycling of mercury in the Everglades. We however demonstrate a number of fundamental problems with the analysis, interpretation and conclusions. As a result, we strongly caution against using the results of Julian II (Bull Environ Contam Toxicol 90:329-332, 2013) to formulate management decisions regarding mitigation of the Everglades mercury problem.

  15. Evaluation of Greenland near surface air temperature datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin

    2017-07-01

    Near-surface air temperature (SAT) over Greenland has important effects on mass balance of the ice sheet, but it is unclear which SAT datasets are reliable in the region. Here extensive in situ SAT measurements ( ˜ 1400 station-years) are used to assess monthly mean SAT from seven global reanalysis datasets, five gridded SAT analyses, one satellite retrieval and three dynamically downscaled reanalyses. Strengths and weaknesses of these products are identified, and their biases are found to vary by season and glaciological regime. MERRA2 reanalysis overall performs best with mean absolute error less than 2 °C in all months. Ice sheet-average annual mean SAT from different datasets are highly correlated in recent decades, but their 1901-2000 trends differ even in sign. Compared with the MERRA2 climatology combined with gridded SAT analysis anomalies, thirty-one earth system model historical runs from the CMIP5 archive reach ˜ 5 °C for the 1901-2000 average bias and have opposite trends for a number of sub-periods.

  16. Diagnosing the extreme surface melt event over southwestern Greenland in 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tedesco

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of passive microwave brightness temperatures from the space-borne Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I documents a record surface snowmelt over high elevations (above 2000 m of the Greenland ice sheet during summer of 2007. To interpret this record, results from the SSM/I are examined in conjunction with fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and output from a regional climate model. The record surface melt reflects unusually warm conditions, seen in positive summertime anomalies of surface air temperatures, downwelling longwave radiation, 1000–500 hPa atmospheric thickness, and the net surface energy flux, linked in turn to southerly airflow over the ice sheet. Low snow accumulation may have contributed to the record through promoting anomalously low surface albedo.

  17. A 3-D evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the greater European region using CALIOP/CALIPSO satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Benedetti, Angela; Zanis, Prodromos; Kourtidis, Konstantinos

    2016-04-01

    Significant amounts of dust are being transferred on an annual basis over the Mediterranean Basin and continental Europe from Northern Africa (Sahara Desert) and Middle East (Arabian Peninsula) as well as from other local sources. Dust affects a number of processes in the atmosphere modulating weather and climate also having an impact on human health and the economy. Therefore, the ability of simulating adequately the amount and optical properties of dust is essential. This work focuses on the evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the regions mentioned above. The evaluation procedure is based on pure dust satellite retrievals from CALIOP/CALIPSO that cover the period 2007-2012. The CALIOP/CALIPSO data utilized here come from an optimized retrieval scheme that was originally developed within the framework of the LIVAS (Lidar Climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for Space-Based LIDAR Simulation Studies) project. CALIOP/CALIPSO dust extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 532 nm are used for the validation of MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 550 nm. Overall, it is shown in this work that space-based lidars may play a major role in the improvement of the MACC aerosol product. This research has been financed under the FP7 Programme MarcoPolo (Grand Number 606953, Theme SPA.2013.3.2-01).

  18. Calculating the quality of public high-throughput sequencing data to obtain a suitable subset for reanalysis from the Sequence Read Archive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Tazro; Nakazato, Takeru; Bono, Hidemasa

    2017-06-01

    It is important for public data repositories to promote the reuse of archived data. In the growing field of omics science, however, the increasing number of submissions of high-throughput sequencing (HTSeq) data to public repositories prevents users from choosing a suitable data set from among the large number of search results. Repository users need to be able to set a threshold to reduce the number of results to obtain a suitable subset of high-quality data for reanalysis. We calculated the quality of sequencing data archived in a public data repository, the Sequence Read Archive (SRA), by using the quality control software FastQC. We obtained quality values for 1 171 313 experiments, which can be used to evaluate the suitability of data for reuse. We also visualized the data distribution in SRA by integrating the quality information and metadata of experiments and samples. We provide quality information of all of the archived sequencing data, which enable users to obtain sufficient quality sequencing data for reanalyses. The calculated quality data are available to the public in various formats. Our data also provide an example of enhancing the reuse of public data by adding metadata to published research data by a third party. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  19. Flood variability over 1871-2012 in Northern Québec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree-rings and on geopotential height field reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, François; Caya, Daniel; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Kuentz, Anna; Mathevet, Thibault; Gailhard, Joël

    2015-04-01

    For the next couple of decades, the impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes are likely to be masked by climate natural variability. Thus, a better understanding and quantification of natural climate variability on hydrological extremes would be helpful for short-term adaptation. However, studying natural variability requires long instrumental records, which are inexistant in remote regions such as Northern Québec. Different methods have been proposed to extend observed hydroclimatic time-series, based on other data sources such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in Northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of spring flood series (Boucher et al., 2011) and of annual and seasonal mean flow series (Nicault et al., 2014), for the last 150 years. Here, we apply a different reconstruction method on the same catchment, using historical reanalysis of geopotential height fields, to compare the flood series obtained and study the observed flood variability over the 1871-2012 period. The applied method, named ANATEM (Kuentz et al., 2013), aims firstly at producing climatic time series (temperature and precipitation) which are then used as inputs to one or several hydrological model previously calibrated in order to obtain streamflow time series. The climatic reconstruction is based on the analog method, using the link between atmospheric pressure situations and local climatic variables and thus requires (i) a geopotential height field reanalysis (here the NOAA reanalysis, available over the 1871-2012 period (Compo et al., 2011)), and (ii) the available observed temperature and precipitation time series (here available over the 1960-2012 period). The hypothesis of the analog method is that two different days having similar atmospheric circulations are expected to produce similar temperature and precipitation patterns. Using this hypothesis, the method

  20. How effective is good domestic kitchen hygiene at reducing diarrhoeal disease in developed countries? A systematic review and reanalysis of the UK IID study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macdonald Clare

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To assess whether domestic kitchen hygiene is an important contributor to the development of diarrhoea in the developed world. Methods Electronic searches were carried out in October 2006 in EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge, Cochrane central register of clinical trials and CINAHL. All publications, irrespective of study design, assessing food hygiene practices with an outcome measure of diarrhoea were included in the review. All included studies underwent data extraction and the data was subsequently analysed. The analysis was conducted by qualitative synthesis of the results. Given the substantial heterogeneity in study design and outcome measures meta-analysis was not done. In addition the existing dataset of the UK IID study was reanalysed to investigate possible associations between self-reported diarrhoea and variables indicative of poor domestic kitchen hygiene Results Some 14 studies were finally included in subsequent analyses. Of the 14 studies included in this systematic review, 11 were case-control studies, 2 cross-sectional surveys, and 1 RCT. Very few studies identified any significant association with good environmental kitchen hygiene. Although some of the variables in the reanalysis of the UK IID study were statistically significant no obvious trend was seen. Conclusion The balance of the available evidence does not support the hypothesis that poor domestic kitchen hygiene practices are important risk factors for diarrhoeal disease in developed countries.

  1. Influence of Springtime Snow over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau on the Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon in the NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis during the post-1950s period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senan, Retish; Orsolini, Yvan

    2014-05-01

    The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has been suggested to be an influential factor in the seasonal predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon. However, many observational and modelling studies remained inconclusive as to the reliability and the stationarity of this snow-monsoon relationship, and the nature of the spatio-temporal teleconnection patterns involved. Here, we re-visit the snow-monsoon relationship using the NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis, which are the longest global reanalysis dataset available and covers the period 1871-2010. We use data for the post-1950s period to show that heavy snow in spring over HTP can delay the onset of the monsoon over the Indian sub-continent by about 6 days and therefore can constitute an important component of the inter-annual variability of the monsoon.

  2. Chemistry Simulations Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.

    2016-01-01

    Simulations using reanalyzed meteorological conditions have been long used to understand causes of atmospheric composition change over the recent past. Using the new Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorology, chemistry simulations are being conducted to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model developed Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 analysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 x 1.25 simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 approximately horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. The Replay simulations is driven by the online use of key MERRA-2 meteorological variables (i.e. U, V, T, and surface pressure) with all other variables calculated in response to those variables. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and changes over the recent past.

  3. Minimal surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Dierkes, Ulrich; Sauvigny, Friedrich; Jakob, Ruben; Kuster, Albrecht

    2010-01-01

    Minimal Surfaces is the first volume of a three volume treatise on minimal surfaces (Grundlehren Nr. 339-341). Each volume can be read and studied independently of the others. The central theme is boundary value problems for minimal surfaces. The treatise is a substantially revised and extended version of the monograph Minimal Surfaces I, II (Grundlehren Nr. 295 & 296). The first volume begins with an exposition of basic ideas of the theory of surfaces in three-dimensional Euclidean space, followed by an introduction of minimal surfaces as stationary points of area, or equivalently

  4. tavg1_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average 1-hourly 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MST1NXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  5. tavgU_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average Diurnal 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MSTUNXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  6. tavgM_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average Monthly Mean 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MSTMNXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  7. Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - a generalized framework for land surface model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S. V.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Santanello, J.; Harrison, K.; Liu, Y.; Shaw, M.

    2012-06-01

    Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it supports hydrological data products from non-LIS environments as well. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.

  8. Surface roughness effect on ultracold neutron interaction with a wall and implications for computer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steyerl, A.; Malik, S. S.; Desai, A. M.; Kaufman, C.

    2010-01-01

    We review the diffuse scattering and the loss coefficient in ultracold neutron reflection from slightly rough surfaces, report a surprising reduction in loss coefficient due to roughness, and discuss the possibility of transition from quantum treatment to ray optics. The results are used in a computer simulation of neutron storage in a recent neutron lifetime experiment that reported a large discrepancy of neutron lifetime with the current particle data value. Our partial reanalysis suggests the possibility of systematic effects that were not included in this publication.

  9. Rumble surfaces

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    National Institute for Transport and Road

    1977-01-01

    Full Text Available Rumble surfaces are intermittent short lengths of coarse-textured road surfacings on which vehicle tyres produce a rumbling sound. used in conjunction with appropriate roadsigns and markings, they can reduce accidents on rural roads by alerting...

  10. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Koller

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe here a new method for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. L* (pronounced L-star is directly proportional to the integral of the magnetic flux contained within the surface defined by a charged particle moving in the Earth's geomagnetic field. Under adiabatic changes to the geomagnetic field L* is a conserved quantity, while under quasi-adiabatic fluctuations diffusion (with respect to a particle's L* is the primary term in equations of particle dynamics. In particular the equations of motion for the very energetic particles that populate the Earth's radiation belts are most commonly expressed by diffusion in three dimensions: L*, energy (or momentum, and pitch angle (the dot product of velocity and the magnetic field vector. Expressing dynamics in these coordinates reduces the dimensionality of the problem by referencing the particle distribution functions to values at the magnetic equatorial point of a magnetic "drift shell" (or L-shell irrespective of local time (or longitude. While the use of L* aids in simplifying the equations of motion, practical applications such as space weather forecasting using realistic geomagnetic fields require sophisticated magnetic field models that, in turn, require computationally intensive numerical integration. Typically a single L* calculation can require on the order of 105 calls to a magnetic field model and each point in the simulation domain and each calculated pitch angle has a different value of L*. We describe here the development and validation of a neural network surrogate model for calculating L* in sophisticated geomagnetic field models with a high degree of fidelity at computational speeds that are millions of times faster than direct numerical field line mapping and integration. This new surrogate model has

  11. Surface thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Moliner, F.

    1975-01-01

    Basic thermodynamics of a system consisting of two bulk phases with an interface. Solid surfaces: general. Discussion of experimental data on surface tension and related concepts. Adsorption thermodynamics in the Gibbsian scheme. Adsorption on inert solid adsorbents. Systems with electrical charges: chemistry and thermodynamics of imperfect crystals. Thermodynamics of charged surfaces. Simple models of charge transfer chemisorption. Adsorption heat and related concepts. Surface phase transitions

  12. Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youyi Fong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oral cholera vaccine (OCV is a feasible tool to prevent or mitigate cholera outbreaks. A better understanding of the vaccine’s efficacy among different age groups and how rapidly its protection wanes could help guide vaccination policy. Methods To estimate the level and duration of OCV efficacy, we re-analyzed data from a previously published cluster-randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trial with five years of follow-up. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and modeled the potentially time-dependent effect of age categories on both vaccine efficacy and risk of infection in the placebo group. In addition, we investigated the impact of an outbreak period on model estimation. Results Vaccine efficacy was 38% (95% CI: -2%,62% for those vaccinated from ages 1 to under 5 years old, 85% (95% CI: 67%,93% for those 5 to under 15 years, and 69% (95% CI: 49%,81% for those vaccinated at ages 15 years and older. Among adult vaccinees, efficacy did not appear to wane during the trial, but there was insufficient data to assess the waning of efficacy among child vaccinees. Conclusions Through this re-analysis we were able to detect a statistically significant difference in OCV efficacy when the vaccine was administered to children under 5 years old vs. children 5 years and older. The estimated efficacies are more similar to the previously published analysis based on the first two years of follow-up than the analysis based on all five years. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00289224

  13. A reanalysis of “Two types of asynchronous activity in networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons” [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainer Engelken

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal activity in the central nervous system varies strongly in time and across neuronal populations. It is a longstanding proposal that such fluctuations generically arise from chaotic network dynamics. Various theoretical studies predict that the rich dynamics of rate models operating in the chaotic regime can subserve circuit computation and learning. Neurons in the brain, however, communicate via spikes and it is a theoretical challenge to obtain similar rate fluctuations in networks of spiking neuron models. A recent study investigated spiking balanced networks of leaky integrate and fire (LIF neurons and compared their dynamics to a matched rate network with identical topology, where single unit input-output functions were chosen from isolated LIF neurons receiving Gaussian white noise input. A mathematical analogy between the chaotic instability in networks of rate units and the spiking network dynamics was proposed. Here we revisit the behavior of the spiking LIF networks and these matched rate networks. We find expected hallmarks of a chaotic instability in the rate network: For supercritical coupling strength near the transition point, the autocorrelation time diverges. For subcritical coupling strengths, we observe critical slowing down in response to small external perturbations. In the spiking network, we found in contrast that the timescale of the autocorrelations is insensitive to the coupling strength and that rate deviations resulting from small input perturbations rapidly decay. The decay speed even accelerates for increasing coupling strength. In conclusion, our reanalysis demonstrates fundamental differences between the behavior of pulse-coupled spiking LIF networks and rate networks with matched topology and input-output function. In particular there is no indication of a corresponding chaotic instability in the spiking network.

  14. Role of diuretics, β blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Lan; Shah, Bimal R; Reyes, Eric M; Thomas, Laine; Wojdyla, Daniel; Diem, Peter; Leiter, Lawrence A; Charbonnel, Bernard; Mareev, Viacheslav; Horton, Edward S; Haffner, Steven M; Soska, Vladimir; Holman, Rury; Bethel, M Angelyn; Schaper, Frank; Sun, Jie-Lena; McMurray, John J V; Califf, Robert M; Krum, Henry

    2013-12-09

    To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. NAVIGATOR trial. Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00097786.

  15. Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Youyi; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Park, Jin Kyung; Marks, Florian; Clemens, John D; Chao, Dennis L

    2018-02-20

    Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a feasible tool to prevent or mitigate cholera outbreaks. A better understanding of the vaccine's efficacy among different age groups and how rapidly its protection wanes could help guide vaccination policy. To estimate the level and duration of OCV efficacy, we re-analyzed data from a previously published cluster-randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trial with five years of follow-up. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and modeled the potentially time-dependent effect of age categories on both vaccine efficacy and risk of infection in the placebo group. In addition, we investigated the impact of an outbreak period on model estimation. Vaccine efficacy was 38% (95% CI: -2%,62%) for those vaccinated from ages 1 to under 5 years old, 85% (95% CI: 67%,93%) for those 5 to under 15 years, and 69% (95% CI: 49%,81%) for those vaccinated at ages 15 years and older. Among adult vaccinees, efficacy did not appear to wane during the trial, but there was insufficient data to assess the waning of efficacy among child vaccinees. Through this re-analysis we were able to detect a statistically significant difference in OCV efficacy when the vaccine was administered to children under 5 years old vs. children 5 years and older. The estimated efficacies are more similar to the previously published analysis based on the first two years of follow-up than the analysis based on all five years. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00289224.

  16. A Reanalysis of Curvature in the Dose Response for Cancer and Modifications by Age at Exposure Following Radiation Therapy for Benign Disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, Mark P.; Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A.; Kleinerman, Ruth A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time. Methods and Materials: Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other). Results: There are statistically significant (P −1 of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI −0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI −0.018, 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers. Conclusions: There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.

  17. The association between vitamin E intake and hypertension: results from the re-analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwabara, Akiko; Nakade, Makiko; Tamai, Hiroshi; Tsuboyama-Kasaoka, Nobuyo; Tanaka, Kiyoshi

    2014-01-01

    Recently, there has been an increasing concern about noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in which oxidative damage plays a role. In this paper, we have re-analyzed the data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) 2007 to study the relationship between an NCD (e.g. hypertension) and the dietary intake of vitamin E, a potent anti-oxidative vitamin. The inclusion criteria were those aged 40 and over, excluding pregnant or lactating women, and data from 1,405 males and 2,102 females were analyzed. The mean ages were 63.5 and 62.4, respectively. Nutrients intake was evaluated from a semi-weighted, 1-d household dietary record. When the subjects were categorized into tertiles based on their vitamin E intake, higher vitamin E intake was associated with a lower percentage of subjects with hypertension (p for trend=0.01). Subjects with higher vitamin E intake had higher energy intake-adjusted intake of other nutrients which have been considered to be related to hypertension such as potassium, magnesium, and vitamin C. Logistic regression analysis was done with the low tertile of vitamin E intake as the reference. The medium and high tertiles of vitamin E intake were associated with a significantly lower odds ratio for hypertension, 0.73 (95% CI; 0.62-0.87) for the former and 0.81 (95% CI; 0.69-0.96) for the latter. Additional analyses, one adjusted for the indices associated with hypertension and one excluding the subjects with vitamin E supplementation, have yielded the similar results. In summary, re-analysis of data from NHNS has revealed that higher vitamin E intake was significantly associated with lower prevalence of hypertension.

  18. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  19. Superhydrophobic surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Evelyn N; McCarthy, Matthew; Enright, Ryan; Culver, James N; Gerasopoulos, Konstantinos; Ghodssi, Reza

    2015-03-24

    Surfaces having a hierarchical structure--having features of both microscale and nanoscale dimensions--can exhibit superhydrophobic properties and advantageous condensation and heat transfer properties. The hierarchical surfaces can be fabricated using biological nanostructures, such as viruses as a self-assembled nanoscale template.

  20. Spherical Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David

    2016-01-01

    We study surfaces of constant positive Gauss curvature in Euclidean 3-space via the harmonicity of the Gauss map. Using the loop group representation, we solve the regular and the singular geometric Cauchy problems for these surfaces, and use these solutions to compute several new examples. We give...

  1. Meteorological Drivers of West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Surface Melt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, R. C.; Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.; Norris, J. R.; Lubin, D.

    2017-12-01

    We identify synoptic patterns and surface energy balance components driving warming and surface melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and ice shelves using reanalysis and satellite remote sensing data from 1973-present. We have developed a synoptic climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns during the summer melt season using k-means cluster and composite analysis of daily 700-mb geopotential height and near-surface air temperature and wind fields from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Surface melt occurrence is detected in satellite passive microwave brightness temperature observations (K-band, horizontal polarization) beginning with the NASA Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) and continuing with its more familiar descendants SMMR, SSM/I and SSMIS. To diagnose synoptic precursors and physical processes driving surface melt we combine the circulation climatology and multi-decadal records of cloud cover with surface radiative fluxes from the Extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) project. We identify three distinct modes of regional summer West Antarctic warming since 1979 involving anomalous ridging over West Antarctica (WA) and the Amundsen Sea (AS). During the 1970s, ESMR data reveal four extensive melt events on the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS also linked to AS blocking. We therefore define an Amundsen Sea Blocking Index (ASBI). The ASBI and synoptic circulation pattern occurrence frequencies are correlated with the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and high latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices and the West Antarctic melt index. Surface melt in WA is favored by enhanced downwelling infrared and turbulent sensible heat fluxes associated with intrusions of warm, moist marine air. Consistent with recent findings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), marine advection to the Ross sector is favored by El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and a negative SAM. We also find

  2. Reanalysis of galactic primary nucleosynthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twarog, B.A.; Wheeler, J.C.

    1987-05-01

    Primary nucleosynthesis in the Galactic disk is reexamined in light of improved observational data for Mg in field stars and improved theoretical data in the form of stellar elemental yields and a higher C-12(alpha, gamma)O-16 reaction rate. It is concluded that the data for O, C, Fe, and Mg are consistent with a constant relative production rate for these elements over the lifetime of the disk in a standard infall model. The yield distribution is nonsolar. Additionally, any continuous mass function in which all stars over 12 solar masses explode both fails to meet the observational constraints on elemental production ratios and overproduces significant amounts of O for the most plausible mass function. Consideration of the probable uncertainties indicates that the discrepancy is real and casts doubt on the capability of current stellar nucleosynthesis theory to provide reliable constraints on stellar evolution, the history of the mass function, or models of galactic chemical evolution. 32 references.

  3. Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Draper, C.; Liu, Q.; Girotto, M.; Mahanama, S.; De Lannoy, G.; Partyka, G.

    2017-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in

  4. Comparing and Combining Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Products for Improved Hydrological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M. Parinussa

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Land surface temperature (LST is an important variable that provides a valuable connection between the energy and water budget and is strongly linked to land surface hydrology. Space-borne remote sensing provides a consistent means for regularly observing LST using thermal infrared (TIR and passive microwave observations each with unique strengths and weaknesses. The spatial resolution of TIR based LST observations is around 1 km, a major advantage when compared to passive microwave observations (around 10 km. However, a major advantage of passive microwaves is their cloud penetrating capability making them all-weather sensors whereas TIR observations are routinely masked under the presence of clouds and aerosols. In this study, a relatively simple combination approach that benefits from the cloud penetrating capacity of passive microwave sensors was proposed. In the first step, TIR and passive microwave LST products were compared over Australia for both anomalies and raw timeseries. A very high agreement was shown over the vast majority of the country with R2 typically ranging from 0.50 to 0.75 for the anomalies and from 0.80 to 1.00 for the raw timeseries. Then, the scalability of the passive microwave based LST product was examined and a pixel based merging approach through linear scaling was proposed. The individual and merged LST products were further compared against independent LST from the re-analysis model outputs. This comparison revealed that the TIR based LST product agrees best with the re-analysis data (R2 0.26 for anomalies and R2 0.76 for raw data, followed by the passive microwave LST product (R2 0.16 for anomalies and R2 0.66 for raw data and the combined LST product (R2 0.18 for anomalies and R2 0.62 for raw data. It should be noted that the drop in performance comes with an increased revisit frequency of approximately 20% compared to the revised frequency of the TIR alone. Additionally, this comparison against re-analysis

  5. Atmospheric balance of the humidity and estimate of the precipitation recycled in Colombia according to the re-analysis NCEP/NCAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuartas, Adriana; Poveda, German

    2002-01-01

    The magnitudes of the entrance humidity flows and exit are considered and the amount of precipitable water at different levels from the atmospheric column on Colombia. The water balance is quantified in the Colombian atmosphere; the regions and the atmospheric levels of entrance and exit of humidity are identified. The hypothesis that in the long term the net atmospheric humidity influence must be equal to the average of long term of the net run-off is verified. In addition, the percentage of recycled precipitation is considered on the Colombian territory. The variability during the two phases of the ENSO is analyzed. The calculations are made with the information of the climatic project Reanalysis developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with the collaboration of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite of the U.S.A. For this work it was counted on monthly information of 41 years between 1958-1998. The hydrological information was obtained from the project Balances Hidrologicos de Colombia, 1999, made by the Posgrado de Recursos Hidraulicos, de la Universidad Nacional, with the support of COLCIENCIAS and the Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica-UPME. The results showed the average value of the net influence of humidity to the atmosphere of Colombia is of 5716 mm/year, with a great variability in both phases of the ENSO. The greater humidity advection towards Colombia occurs in the low levels of pressure (between 1000 and 850 hPa), and originating of all the directions, mainly of trade winds of the east and trade winds of the west. Also one was that the greater humidity transport towards Colombia occurs in trimesters DJF and MAM, with average values 505,1 and 606,6 mm/year, respectively. It was observed that the hypothesis that in the long term, the net atmospheric flux, is equal to the net terrestrial run-off, reasonably is adapted for

  6. Rain gauge - radar rainfall reanalysis of operational and research data in the Cévennes-Vivarais region, France, estimation error analysis over a wide range of scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijbrans, Annette; Delrieu, Guy; Nord, Guillaume; Boudevillain, Brice; Berne, Alexis; Grazioli, Jacopo; Confoland, Audrey

    2014-05-01

    In the Cévennes -Vivarais region in France, flash-flood events can occur due to high intensity precipitation events. These events are described in a detailed quantitative precipitation estimates, to be able to better characterize the hydrological response to these rain events in a number of small-scale nested watersheds (window, as well as a research network, in the same region on a window of 15x30 km. The radar and rain gauge data of the operational network are collected from three organisms (Météo-France, Service de Prévision des Crues du Grand Delta and EdF/DTG). The research network contains high resolution data are from research rainfall observation systems deployed within the Enhanced Observation Period (autumn 2012-2015) of the HyMeX project (www.hymex.org). This project aims at studying the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean with emphases on the hydro-meteorological extremes and their evolution in the coming decades. Rain gauge radar merging is performed using a kriging with external drift (KED) technique, and compared to the ordinary kriging (OK) of the rain gauges and the radar products on the same time scale using a cross-validation technique. Also a method is applied to quantify kriging estimation variances for both kriging techniques at the two spatial scales, in order to analyse the error characteristics of the interpolation methods at a scale range of 0.1 - 100 km² and 0.2 - 12 h. The combined information of the reanalysis of the data of the operational network and the research network gives a view on the error structure of rainfall estimations over several orders of magnitudes in spatial scale. This allows understanding of the error structure of these rain events, their relation to availability of data, and gives insight in the added value of detailed rainfall data on the understanding of the rainfall structure on very small, 'missing', scales (smaller than 1km2 and 1 hour time steps).

  7. Intra- and Inter- annual PM2.5 variations in the Arctic region during 2003-2017 based on the NASA's MERRA-2 re-analysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, T. J.; Kim, K. M.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    We examined the intra- and inter-annual variations of PM2.5 in the Arctic region based on monthly mean aerosols (dust, sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols) and PM2.5 from NASA's latest reanalysis, MERRA2. We focus on the time period from January 2003 to the recent month (May 2017). The domain of the Arctic region was defined as North of 66.5N in this study. Although there are some exceptions, the largest contributions of dust, ammonium sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols (i.e., Black Carbon, BC, and Particulate Organic Matter, POM) to the fractions of PM2.5 were mainly seen in spring, spring, fall, and summer, respectively. During the focused time period, the fractions of dust, ammonium sulfate, sea salt, BC, and POM explains 2.7-42.5%, 9.5-37.5%, 16.7-73.1%, 0.5-2.8%, 1.5-58.0% of the Arctic PM2.5, respectively. If we picked up the top 10 high PM2.5 months during the period, those were separated into two seasons: summer (eight months) and winter (two months). For the composites of the summer months above, the areas with higher PM2.5 were Siberia, Far East, Alaska, and Canada and the regions where POM fractions were larger, implying the contributions from smokes due to active wildfires in summer seasons. For the winter months, the mixture of increased dust, ammonium sulfate, and sea salt was seen. However, the highest PM2.5 in the Arctic region was seen from the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, and Greenland Sea over which the contribution of sea salt was very large. This means the sea salt aerosols were the main contributor to the high PM2.5 winter months there. Based on our MERRA-2 analyses, continuous monitoring and development for better forecasting wildfire activities in summer and sea salt emissions in winter would be the keys for better understanding of the air quality in the Arctic region including mitigation and measures of it in the future.

  8. A Reanalysis of Curvature in the Dose Response for Cancer and Modifications by Age at Exposure Following Radiation Therapy for Benign Disease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, Mark P., E-mail: mark.little@nih.gov [Radiation Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland (United States); Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A. [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Kleinerman, Ruth A. [Radiation Epidemiology Branch, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland (United States)

    2013-02-01

    Purpose: To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time. Methods and Materials: Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other). Results: There are statistically significant (P<.05) excess risks for all cancer and for lung cancer and borderline statistically significant risks for stomach cancer (P=.07), and leukemia (P=.06), with excess relative risks Gy{sup -1} of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI -0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI -0.018, 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers. Conclusions: There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.

  9. A characterization of Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and runoff in contemporary reanalyses and a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullather, Richard; Nowicki, Sophie; Zhao, Bin; Koenig, Lora

    2016-02-01

    For the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), large-scale melt area has increased in recent years and is detectable via remote sensing, but its relation to runoff is not known. Historical, modeled melt area and runoff from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Replay), the Interim Re-Analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) are examined. These sources compare favorably with satellite-derived estimates of surface melt area for the period 2000-2012. Spatially, the models markedly disagree on the number of melt days in the interior of the southern part of the ice sheet, and on the extent of persistent melt areas in the northeastern GrIS. Temporally, the models agree on the mean seasonality of daily surface melt and on the timing of large-scale melt events in 2012. In contrast, the models disagree on the amount, seasonality, spatial distribution, and temporal variability of runoff. As compared to global reanalyses, time series from MAR indicate a lower correlation between runoff and melt area (r2 = 0.805). Runoff in MAR is much larger in the second half of the melt season for all drainage basins, while the ASR indicates larger runoff in the first half of the year. This difference in seasonality for the MAR and to an extent for the ASR provide a hysteresis in the relation between runoff and melt area, which is not found in the other models. The comparison points to a need for reliable observations of surface runoff.

  10. The application of a dynamic OpenMI coupling between a regional climate model and a distributed surface water-groundwater model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2014-01-01

    -dominated catchment, the Skjern River, Denmark. The 2500 km2 catchment model is embedded in a meso-scale (4000 km x 2800 km) climate modelling domain. By using the ERA Interim reanalysis as boundary conditions the coupling performance is evaluated against measurements of both climatic and hydrological variables...... the atmosphere and the groundwater via the soil and land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions as well as human interventions. The coupled model is applied to one-way and two-way coupled simulations for a managed groundwater...

  11. The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,

    2015-01-01

    SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean have tracked closely with CMIP5 simulations despite recent hiatus cooling in the eastern Pacific. This paper quantifies these similarities and associated circulation and precipitation variations using the first global 1900–2012 ENSO-residual empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 35 variables: observed SSTs; 28 CMIP5 SST simulations; Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) 25-, 70-, and 171-m ocean temperatures and sea surface heights (SSHs); and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (20CRv2), surface winds and precipitation.

  12. A review of the findings and theories on surface size effects on visual attention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peschel, Anne Odile; Orquin, Jacob Lund

    2013-01-01

    in the literature: a linear model based on the assumption of random fixations (Lohse, 1997), a theory of surface size as visual saliency (Pieters et al., 2007), and a theory based on competition for attention (CA; Janiszewski, 1998). We furthermore suggest a fourth model – demand for attention – which we derive...... from the theory of CA by revising the underlying model assumptions. In order to test the models against each other, we reanalyze data from an eye tracking study investigating surface size and saliency effects on attention. The reanalysis revealed little support for the first three theories while...... the demand for attention model showed a much better alignment with the data. We conclude that surface size effects may best be explained as an increase in object signal strength which depends on object size, number of objects in the visual scene, and object distance to the center of the scene. Our findings...

  13. Desiccation of the Aral Sea and climate change in Central Asia: Interplay and mutual feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavialov, Peter; Huang, Huei-Ping

    2013-04-01

    In this presentation, we report results of a research project supported by US Civil Research and Development Foundation aimed at investigating the interplays between the Aral Sea desiccation, anthropogenic impacts, and climate change in Central Asia, and quantify principal feedbacks in the climatic system of the Aral Sea region by means of numerical model experiments as well as analyses of historical and newly obtained observational data. Aral Sea desiccation has been recognized as one of the worst anthropogenic ecological disasters ever. However, it is believed that a part of the desiccation may have been due to the natural climate variability manifested in larger scale warming trends across the Central Asia. The interaction between the lake and the climate change is a "two-way street": the shrinking of the Aral Sea leads to reduction in evaporation and precipitation, thus affecting regional moisture and temperature regimes, and atmospheric circulation. The altered meteorological condition may, in turn, induce further changes in the Aral Sea. In this study, we attempted to quantify the relative contribution from the alterations in the lake's hydrology and surface area to the regional climate change, and, reciprocally, from the large-scale and regional climate trends to the desiccation of the Aral Sea. We show, in particular, that the Aral Sea desiccation has led to significant changes in the regional precipitation, snow cover, and air temperature regimes. On the other hand, the large-scale variability of climate across Central Asia has modulated the hydrology of the lake and caused at least a part of the water level drop. We assessed the long-term trends of air temperature at different isobaric surfaces in the Aral Sea region basing on reanalysis and historical data. Temperature and rainfall daily measurements from 223 meteorological stations of the former USSR in period from 1936 to 1990 were used, as well as the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The differences between

  14. Off-shore Wind Atlas of the Central Aegean Sea: A simple comparison of NCEP/NCAR RE-analysis data, QuickSCAT and ENVISAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) by use of Wind Atlas Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bingöl, Ferhat; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Karagali, Ioanna

    2012-01-01

    to high costs, but with the new developments in floating turbine design, it seems that offshore wind parks in deep waters will also be a possibility in the future. Whether on-shore or offshore, the first step of a site assessment is to estimate the wind resources. Usually well-known conventional methods...... of using SAR data at the Central Aegean Sea and compare with two other parallel developing techniques; NCEP/NCAR re-analysis based Ocean wind Atlas and scatterometer winds QuickSCAT 1. WAsP software and/or method is used in all steps of the study....

  15. Surface boxplots

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-22

    In this paper, we introduce a surface boxplot as a tool for visualization and exploratory analysis of samples of images. First, we use the notion of volume depth to order the images viewed as surfaces. In particular, we define the median image. We use an exact and fast algorithm for the ranking of the images. This allows us to detect potential outlying images that often contain interesting features not present in most of the images. Second, we build a graphical tool to visualize the surface boxplot and its various characteristics. A graph and histogram of the volume depth values allow us to identify images of interest. The code is available in the supporting information of this paper. We apply our surface boxplot to a sample of brain images and to a sample of climate model outputs.

  16. Convex surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Busemann, Herbert

    2008-01-01

    This exploration of convex surfaces focuses on extrinsic geometry and applications of the Brunn-Minkowski theory. It also examines intrinsic geometry and the realization of intrinsic metrics. 1958 edition.

  17. Surface decontamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, S. da; Teixeira, M.V.

    1986-06-01

    The general methods of surface decontamination used in laboratory and others nuclear installations areas, as well as the procedures for handling radioactive materials and surfaces of work are presented. Some methods for decontamination of body external parts are mentioned. The medical supervision and assistance are required for internal or external contamination involving or not lesion in persons. From this medical radiation protection decontamination procedures are determined. (M.C.K.) [pt

  18. Surface phonons

    CERN Document Server

    Wette, Frederik

    1991-01-01

    In recent years substantial progress has been made in the detection of surface phonons owing to considerable improvements in inelastic rare gas scattering tech­ niques and electron energy loss spectroscopy. With these methods it has become possible to measure surface vibrations in a wide energy range for all wave vectors in the two-dimensional Brillouin zone and thus to deduce the complete surface phonon dispersion curves. Inelastic atomic beam scattering and electron energy loss spectroscopy have started to play a role in the study of surface phonons similar to the one played by inelastic neutron scattering in the investigation of bulk phonons in the last thirty years. Detailed comparison between experimen­ tal results and theoretical studies of inelastic surface scattering and of surface phonons has now become feasible. It is therefore possible to test and to improve the details of interaction models which have been worked out theoretically in the last few decades. At this point we felt that a concise, co...

  19. Reinitialised versus continuous regional climate simulations using ALARO-0 coupled to the land surface model SURFEXv5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; De Troch, Rozemien; Hamdi, Rafiq; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Termonia, Piet

    2017-01-01

    Dynamical downscaling in a continuous approach using initial and boundary conditions from a reanalysis or a global climate model is a common method for simulating the regional climate. The simulation potential can be improved by applying an alternative approach of reinitialising the atmosphere, combined with either a daily reinitialised or a continuous land surface. We evaluated the dependence of the simulation potential on the running mode of the regional climate model ALARO coupled to the land surface model Météo-France SURFace EXternalisée (SURFEX), and driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Three types of downscaling simulations were carried out for a 10-year period from 1991 to 2000, over a western European domain at 20 km horizontal resolution: (1) a continuous simulation of both the atmosphere and the land surface, (2) a simulation with daily reinitialisations for both the atmosphere and the land surface and (3) a simulation with daily reinitialisations of the atmosphere while the land surface is kept continuous. The results showed that the daily reinitialisation of the atmosphere improved the simulation of the 2 m temperature for all seasons. It revealed a neutral impact on the daily precipitation totals during winter, but the results were improved for the summer when the land surface was kept continuous. The behaviour of the three model configurations varied among different climatic regimes. Their seasonal cycle for the 2 m temperature and daily precipitation totals was very similar for a Mediterranean climate, but more variable for temperate and continental climate regimes. Commonly, the summer climate is characterised by strong interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface. The results for summer demonstrated that the use of a daily reinitialised atmosphere improved the representation of the partitioning of the surface energy fluxes. Therefore, we recommend using the alternative approach of the daily reinitialisation of the atmosphere for

  20. Expanding the performance curve of different weather data sources for hydrologic modeling in central Texas: a comparison of ground observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as watershed model inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuka, D. R.; Collick, A.; Auerbach, D.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Wagena, M. B.; Sommerlot, A.; Harmel, D.; Easton, Z. M.

    2015-12-01

    Obtaining location specific representative meteorological data can be difficult and time consuming, even though correctly representing the weather is critical to hydrological modeling and watershed management planning. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally-available records that offer a consistent baseline for assessments of candidate weather data, have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations, as well as have been demonstrated as a solution for ungaged tropical and semi-tropical montane basins. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall data density in USDA-ARS's Reisel experimental watershed. We compared model performance under alternative weather inputs: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) records, a standard public weather station dataset available from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN), and a the high density research quality dataset available from the USDA-ARS. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations available from GHCN, especially when stations are more than 10-km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling ungauged watersheds and advancing real-time hydrological modelling.

  1. A reanalysis of the morphological phylogeny of the spider genus Physocyclus Simon (Araneae: Pholcidae) with the description of a new species and description of the female of Physocyclus paredesi Valdez-Mondragón from Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez-Mondragón, Alejandro

    2014-09-23

    A new species of spider from Michoacán, Physocyclus peribanensis sp. nov. is described. This description is based on a male holotype and one female paratype. Also, the first description of the female of Physocyclus paredesi Valdez-Mondragón from Oaxaca, Mexico is provided, as well as the redescription of the male. This paper provides a cladistic reanalysis of the spider genus Physocyclus Simon, corroborating the monophyly of the genus with morphological data. The phylogenetic reanalysis was done with 54 morphological characters (44 binary and 10 multistate) using equal and implied weighting approach. The equal weighting analysis found two most parsimonious trees, whereas the analysis with implied weighting found just one most parsimonious trees with the concavity values (K= 5-10). The genus Physocyclus is composed by two clades or species groups: the globosus and the dugesi groups. Physocyclus peribanensis sp. nov. belongs to the dugesi group composed of 21 species, and P. paredesi to the globosus group composed of 11 species. With the new species described here, the number of known species of the genus Physocyclus increases to 32 species. The globosus group has a biogeographical distribution pattern in the Mesoamerican and Mexican Mountain biotic components, whereas the dugesi group has a biogeographical distribution in the Mesoamerican and Continental Nearctic biotic components.

  2. Ice Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Mary Jane

    2017-05-01

    Ice is a fundamental solid with important environmental, biological, geological, and extraterrestrial impact. The stable form of ice at atmospheric pressure is hexagonal ice, Ih. Despite its prevalence, Ih remains an enigmatic solid, in part due to challenges in preparing samples for fundamental studies. Surfaces of ice present even greater challenges. Recently developed methods for preparation of large single-crystal samples make it possible to reproducibly prepare any chosen face to address numerous fundamental questions. This review describes preparation methods along with results that firmly establish the connection between the macroscopic structure (observed in snowflakes, microcrystallites, or etch pits) and the molecular-level configuration (detected with X-ray or electron scattering techniques). Selected results of probing interactions at the ice surface, including growth from the melt, surface vibrations, and characterization of the quasi-liquid layer, are discussed.

  3. Potential for Controlling Cholera Using a Ring Vaccination Strategy: Re-analysis of Data from a Cluster-Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali

    2016-09-01

    -11 times higher than that among the cohort not exposed to cholera cases. The risk gradually diminished with an increase in distance and time. The overall and indirect VE measured between 8 and 28 d after exposure to a cholera index case during the first 2 y was 91% (95% CI 62%-98% and 93% (95% CI 44%-99%, respectively. VE persisted for 5 y after vaccination and was similar whether the index case was a young child (<5 y or was older. Of note, this study was a reanalysis of a cholera vaccine trial that used two doses; thus, a limitation of the study relates to the assumption that a single dose, if administered quickly, will induce a similar level of total and indirect protection over the short term as did two doses.These findings suggest that high-level protection can be achieved if individuals living close to cholera cases are living in a high coverage ring. Since this was an observational study including participants who had received two doses of vaccine (or placebo in the clinical trial, further studies are needed to determine whether a ring vaccination strategy, in which vaccine is given quickly to those living close to a case, is feasible and effective.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289224.

  4. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  5. Changes in Energy Imbalance at the Ocean Surface during the "hiatus" period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, L.

    2016-02-01

    Despite the recent slowdown in the rate of surface warming, a general consensus exists, that is, the Earth continues to gain energy and almost all the energy added to the Earth system is accumulated in the oceans. Nevertheless, key issues remain unaddressed regarding the actual energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere and the Earth surface, their changes over time, and their storage and distribution in the oceans. Quantifying and tracking the energy flow through the Earth System require consistent and accurate record of observations, but existing observation platforms contain various degrees of uncertainty. There is a need to cross-validate the energy budget estimates from different resources and from different approaches. In this study, we conducted an assessment of net energy budget at the ocean surface estimated from three general sources, the satellite-based analysis (WHOI OAFlux and NASA CERES), an ocean state estimator (MIT ECCO), and the atmospheric reanalysis products. For the "hiatus" period (2001-2010) in study, all products show that the oceans have been on net energy gain, but the magnitude varies and the differences in the rate of the decadal change in energy imbalance are large. While the reanalysis products show either upward or downward trends, ECCO and OAFlux/CERES indicate that the energy imbalance remains near constant. The downward trend in ERA-Interim started from 2006, driven by a peculiar pattern change in the Pacific. ECCO, which used ERA-Interim as initial surface forcing, corrected the pattern and maintained a near steady rate. ECCO assimilates observations from oceanographic satellites and Argo profiles, while the OAFlux/CERES Qnet were obtained from satellite atmospheric and near-surface observations using no dynamical models but the state-of-the-art flux algorithms and statistical approaches. Given the differences in input data sources and approaches, the agreement between ECCO and OAFlux/CERES is encouraging and instructive.

  6. Cyclone-induced surface ozone and HDO depletion in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaoyi; Weaver, Dan; Bognar, Kristof; Manney, Gloria; Millán, Luis; Yang, Xin; Eloranta, Edwin; Schneider, Matthias; Strong, Kimberly

    2017-12-01

    Ground-based, satellite, and reanalysis datasets were used to identify two similar cyclone-induced surface ozone depletion events at Eureka, Canada (80.1° N, 86.4° W), in March 2007 and April 2011. These two events were coincident with observations of hydrogen deuterium oxide (HDO) depletion, indicating that condensation and sublimation occurred during the transport of the ozone-depleted air masses. Ice clouds (vapour and crystals) and aerosols were detected by lidar and radar when the ozone- and HDO-depleted air masses arrived over Eureka. For the 2007 event, an ice cloud layer was coincident with an aloft ozone depletion layer at 870 m altitude on 2-3 March, indicating this ice cloud layer contained bromine-enriched blowing-snow particles. Over the following 3 days, a shallow surface ozone depletion event (ODE) was observed at Eureka after the precipitation of bromine-enriched particles onto the local snowpack. A chemistry-climate model (UKCA) and a chemical transport model (pTOMCAT) were used to simulate the surface ozone depletion events. Incorporating the latest surface snow salinity data obtained for the Weddell Sea into the models resulted in improved agreement between the modelled and measured BrO concentrations above Eureka. MERRA-2 global reanalysis data and the FLEXPART particle dispersion model were used to study the link between the ozone and HDO depletion. In general, the modelled ozone and BrO showed good agreement with the ground-based observations; however, the modelled BrO and ozone in the near-surface layer are quite sensitive to the snow salinity. HDO depletion observed during these two blowing-snow ODEs was found to be weaker than pure Rayleigh fractionation. This work provides evidence of a blowing-snow sublimation process, which is a key step in producing bromine-enriched sea-salt aerosol.

  7. Validation of the Suomi NPP VIIRS Ice Surface Temperature Environmental Data Record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinghui Liu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of the surface temperature is critical to understanding and forecasting Arctic climate change; as surface temperature integrates changes in the surface energy budget. The sea-ice surface temperature (IST has been measured with optical and thermal infrared sensors for many years. With the IST Environmental Data Record (EDR available from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP and future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS satellites; we can continue to monitor and investigate Arctic climate change. This work examines the quality of the VIIRS IST EDR. Validation is performed through comparisons with multiple datasets; including NASA IceBridge measurements; air temperature from Arctic drifting ice buoys; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS IST; MODIS IST simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO; and surface air temperature from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Results show biases of −0.34; −0.12; 0.16; −3.20; and −3.41 K compared to an aircraft-mounted downward-looking pyrometer; MODIS; MODIS SNO; drifting buoy; and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis; respectively; root-mean-square errors of 0.98; 1.02; 0.95; 4.89; and 6.94 K; and root-mean-square errors with the bias removed of 0.92; 1.01; 0.94; 3.70; and 6.04 K. Based on the IceBridge and MODIS results; the VIIRS IST uncertainty (RMSE meets or exceeds the JPSS system requirement of 1.0 K. The product can therefore be considered useful for meteorological and climatological applications.

  8. Impact of improved Greenland ice sheet surface representation in the NASA GISS ModelE2 GCM on simulated surface mass balance and regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, P. M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Fischer, E.; Tedesco, M.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.; Fettweis, X.

    2017-12-01

    Towards achieving coupled simulations between the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 general circulation model (GCM) and ice sheet models (ISMs), improvements have been made to the representation of the ice sheet surface in ModelE2. These include a sub-grid-scale elevation class scheme, a multi-layer snow model, a time-variable surface albedo scheme, and adjustments to parameterization of sublimation/evaporation. These changes improve the spatial resolution and physical representation of the ice sheet surface such that the surface is represented at a level of detail closer to that of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We assess the impact of these changes on simulated Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB). We also compare ModelE2 simulations in which winds have been nudged to match the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis with simulations from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM forced by the same reanalysis. Adding surface elevation classes results in a much higher spatial resolution representation of the surface necessary for coupling with ISMs, but has a negligible impact on overall SMB. Implementing a variable surface albedo scheme increases melt by 100%, bringing it closer to melt simulated by MAR. Adjustments made to the representation of topography-influenced surface roughness length in ModelE2 reduce a positive bias in evaporation relative to MAR. We also examine the impact of changes to the GrIS surface on regional atmospheric and oceanic climate in coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations with ModelE2, finding a general warming of the Arctic due to a warmer GrIS, and a cooler North Atlantic in scenarios with doubled atmospheric CO2 relative to pre-industrial levels. The substantial influence of changes to the GrIS surface on the oceans and atmosphere highlight the importance of including these processes in the GCM, in view of potential feedbacks between the ice sheet

  9. Surfacing Moves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lutz, Peter

    2013-01-01

    such as schedules, machines, and aging bodies. To this end, the article also experiments with ‘surfacing’ as an ethnographic heuristic for figuring these different ‘spatial-timings’. The article concludes that surfacing matters not only in senior home care but also in the field-desks of ethnographic analysis....

  10. Attack surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gruschka, Nils; Jensen, Meiko

    2010-01-01

    The new paradigm of cloud computing poses severe security risks to its adopters. In order to cope with these risks, appropriate taxonomies and classification criteria for attacks on cloud computing are required. In this work-in-progress paper we present one such taxonomy based on the notion...... of attack surfaces of the cloud computing scenario participants....

  11. Interaction Between Surface Heat Budgets, Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Convection in the Tropical Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The surface heat budgets, sea surface temperature (SST), clouds and winds in the tropical western Pacific are analyzed and compared for the periods April-June 1998 and 1999. The spring of 1998 is in the later phase of a strong El Nino, whereas the spring of 1999 is in a period of a La Nina. The surface shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes are retrieved from Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements, while the surface turbulent fluxes (latent and sensible heat) are derived from SSM/I-Inferred surface air humidity and winds. The SST and sea-air temperature differences are taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Deep convection is inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation of NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites. The longitudinal shift in maximum SST, deep convection and winds during El Nino and La Nina have a large impact on the spatial distribution of surface heating. Changes in clouds between these two periods have a large impact on the monthly-mean radiative heating, exceeding 60 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic regions. Similarly, the differences in wind speeds and SST have a large impact on the latent cooling, exceeding 40 W m(exp -2) over large oceanic areas. However, the maximum impacts on radiative and latent heat fluxes occur in different regions. The regions of maximum impact on radiative fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in clouds, whereas regions of maximum impact on turbulent heat fluxes coincide with the regions of maximum change in trade winds. The time-evolution of SST in relation to that of surface heat fluxes and winds are investigated and compared between the two El Nino and La Nina periods. In regions where wind speeds (or wind stresses) are large, the change in SST agrees well with the change in the net surface heating, indicating a deep ocean mixed layer associated with strong trade winds. On the other hand, in regions where radiative fluxes are large, the change in SST does not agree well with the

  12. A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul; Brazauskas, Vytaras

    2017-10-01

    The most comprehensive continuous-coverage modern climatic data sets, known as reanalyses, come from combining state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with diverse available observations. These reanalysis products estimate the path of climate evolution that actually happened, and their use in a probabilistic context—for example, to document trends in extreme events in response to climate change—is, therefore, limited. Free runs of NWP models without data assimilation can in principle be used for the latter purpose, but such simulations are computationally expensive and are prone to systematic biases. Here we produce a high-resolution, 100-member ensemble simulation of surface atmospheric temperature over North America for the 1979-2015 period using a comprehensive spatially extended non-stationary statistical model derived from the data based on the North American Regional Reanalysis. The surrogate climate realizations generated by this model are independent from, yet nearly statistically congruent with reality. This data set provides unique opportunities for the analysis of weather-related risk, with applications in agriculture, energy development, and protection of human life.

  13. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II, for GSSTF, 0.25x0.25 deg, Daily Grid, V3, (GSSTF_NCEP), at GES DISC V3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data are the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version 3 Dataset recently produced through a MEaSURES funded project led by Dr. Chung-Lin Shie...

  14. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II, for GSSTF, 0.25x0.25 deg, Monthly grid, V3, (GSSTFM_NCEP), at GES DISC V3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data are the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version 3 Dataset recently produced through a MEaSURES funded project led by Dr. Chung-Lin Shie...

  15. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in HDF-EOS5, for GSSTF2c, 1x1 deg Daily grid V2c

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data are the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version-2c (GSSTF2c) Dataset recently produced through a MEaSURES funded project led by Dr....

  16. NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in HDF-EOS5, for GSSTF2c, 1x1 deg Monthly grid V2c

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These data are the Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version-2c Dataset recently produced through a MEaSURES funded project led by Dr. Chung-Lin Shie...

  17. Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

    2017-10-01

    Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

  18. Mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet - a study of ICESat data, surface density and firn compaction modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, L. S.; Simonsen, Sebastian Bjerregaard; Nielsen, K.

    2010-01-01

    in estimating the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. We find firn dynamics and surface densities to be important factors in deriving the mass loss from remote sensing altimetry. The volume change derived from ICESat data is corrected for firn compaction, vertical bedrock movement and an intercampaign...... elevation bias in the ICESat data. Subsequently, the corrected volume change is converted into mass change by surface density modelling. The firn compaction and density models are driven by a dynamically downscaled simulation of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model using ERA-Interim reanalysis lateral......ICESat has provided surface elevation measurements of the ice sheets since the launch in January 2003, resulting in a unique data set for monitoring the changes of the cryosphere. Here we present a novel method for determining the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet derived from ICESat...

  19. Off-shore Wind Atlas of the Central Aegean Sea: A simple comparison of NCEP/NCAR RE-analysis data, QuickSCAT and ENVISAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) by use of Wind Atlas Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bingöl, Ferhat; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Karagali, Ioanna

    2012-01-01

    to high costs, but with the new developments in floating turbine design, it seems that offshore wind parks in deep waters will also be a possibility in the future. Whether on-shore or offshore, the first step of a site assessment is to estimate the wind resources. Usually well-known conventional methods......Offshore wind energy is progressing rapidly in many parts of the world including Europe. While our understanding of offshore wind is growing parallel to that, most of the offshore wind development is located in shallow or transitional waters. Deep, open sea was never preferred by developers due...... are used to produce estimates of wind resources by means of at least one year data from a single or multiple points on the terrain. This criterion is dicult to satisfy in offshore locations where measurements are costly and sparse. Therefore other methods are required (e.g satellite imagery or reanalysis...

  20. Olmesartan vs ramipril in the treatment of hypertension and associated clinical conditions in the elderly: a reanalysis of two large double-blind, randomized studies at the light of the most recent blood pressure targets recommended by guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omboni, Stefano; Malacco, Ettore; Mallion, Jean-Michel; Volpe, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present the results of a reanalysis of the data of two large randomized, double-blind, parallel group studies with a similar design, comparing the efficacy of an angiotensin-receptor blocker (olmesartan medoxomil) with that of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ramipril), by applying two different blood pressure targets recently recommended by hypertension guidelines for all patients, irrespective of the presence of diabetes (elderly hypertensive patients (elderly hypertensives even when new blood pressure targets for antihypertensive treatment are considered. Such results may be relevant for the clinical practice, providing some hint on the possible different response of elderly hypertensive patients to two different drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system, when patients are targeted according to the blood pressure levels recommended by recent hypertension guidelines.

  1. On the use of MOZAIC-IAGOS data to assess the ability of the MACC reanalysis to reproduce the distribution of ozone and CO in the UTLS over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrey Gaudel

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available MOZAIC-IAGOS data are used to assess the ability of the MACC reanalysis (REAN to reproduce distributions of ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO, along with vertical and inter-annual variability in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region (UTLS over Europe for the period 2003–2010. A control run (CNTRL, without assimilation is compared with the MACC reanalysis (REAN, with assimilation to assess the impact of assimilation. On average over the period, REAN underestimates ozone by 60 ppbv in the lower stratosphere (LS, whilst CO is overestimated by 20 ppbv. In the upper troposphere (UT, ozone is overestimated by 50 ppbv, while CO is partly over or underestimated by up to 20 ppbv. As expected, assimilation generally improves model results but there are some exceptions. Assimilation leads to increased CO mixing ratios in the UT which reduce the biases of the model in this region but the difference in CO mixing ratios between LS and UT has not changed and remains underestimated after assimilation. Therefore, this leads to a significant positive bias of CO in the LS after assimilation. Assimilation improves estimates of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle for both species. Additionally, the observations clearly show a general negative trend of CO in the UT which is rather well reproduced by REAN. However, REAN misses the observed inter-annual variability in summer. The O3–CO correlation in the Ex-UTLS is rather well reproduced by the CNTRL and REAN, although REAN tends to miss the lowest CO mixing ratios for the four seasons and tends to oversample the extra-tropical transition layer (ExTL region in spring. This evaluation stresses the importance of the model gradients for a good description of the mixing in the Ex-UTLS region, which is inherently difficult to observe from satellite instruments.

  2. SEMIC: an efficient surface energy and mass balance model applied to the Greenland ice sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Krapp

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We present SEMIC, a Surface Energy and Mass balance model of Intermediate Complexity for snow- and ice-covered surfaces such as the Greenland ice sheet. SEMIC is fast enough for glacial cycle applications, making it a suitable replacement for simpler methods such as the positive degree day (PDD method often used in ice sheet modelling. Our model explicitly calculates the main processes involved in the surface energy and mass balance, while maintaining a simple interface and requiring minimal data input to drive it. In this novel approach, we parameterise diurnal temperature variations in order to more realistically capture the daily thaw–freeze cycles that characterise the ice sheet mass balance. We show how to derive optimal model parameters for SEMIC specifically to reproduce surface characteristics and day-to-day variations similar to the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional, version 2 and its incorporated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT (Soil Ice Snow Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer. A validation test shows that SEMIC simulates future changes in surface temperature and surface mass balance in good agreement with the more sophisticated multilayer snowpack model SISVAT included in MAR. With this paper, we present a physically based surface model to the ice sheet modelling community that is general enough to be used with in situ observations, climate model, or reanalysis data, and that is at the same time computationally fast enough for long-term integrations, such as glacial cycles or future climate change scenarios.

  3. Development of high-resolution (250 m) historical daily gridded air temperature data using reanalysis and distributed sensor networks for the US northern Rocky Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachary A. Holden; Alan Swanson; Anna E. Klene; John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Samuel A. Cushman; John Squires; Gretchen G. Moisen; Jared W. Oyler

    2016-01-01

    Gridded temperature data sets are typically produced at spatial resolutions that cannot fully resolve fine-scale variation in surface air temperature in regions of complex topography. These data limitations have become increasingly important as scientists and managers attempt to understand and plan for potential climate change impacts. Here, we describe the...

  4. Estimating Land Surface Temperature from Feng Yun-3C/MERSI Data Using a New Land Surface Emissivity Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangchen Meng

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Land surface temperature (LST is a key parameter for a wide number of applications, including hydrology, meteorology and surface energy balance. In this study, we first proposed a new land surface emissivity (LSE scheme, including a lookup table-based method to determine the vegetated surface emissivity and an empirical method to derive the bare soil emissivity from the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS broadband emissivity (BBE product. Then, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA reanalysis data and the Feng Yun-3C/Medium Resolution Spectral Imager (FY-3C/MERSI precipitable water vapor product were used to correct the atmospheric effects. After resolving the land surface emissivity and atmospheric effects, the LST was derived in a straightforward manner from the FY-3C/MERSI data by the radiative transfer equation algorithm and the generalized single-channel algorithm. The mean difference between the derived LSE and field-measured LSE over seven stations is approximately 0.002. Validation of the LST retrieved with the LSE determined by the new scheme can achieve an acceptable accuracy. The absolute biases are less than 1 K and the STDs (RMSEs are less than 1.95 K (2.2 K for both the 1000 m and 250 m spatial resolutions. The LST accuracy is superior to that retrieved with the LSE determined by the commonly used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI threshold method. Thus, the new emissivity scheme can be used to improve the accuracy of the LSE and further the LST for sensors with broad spectral ranges such as FY-3C/MERSI.

  5. Surfaces of Building Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Surynková, Petra

    2009-01-01

    My diploma thesis Surfaces of Building Practice deals with the basic properties of surfaces, their mathematical description, categorization, and application in technical practice. Each studied surface is defined and its process of construction and parametrical description is listed. The thesis studies selected types of surfaces in details - these surfaces include surfaces of revolution, ruled surfaces, screw surfaces, and translational surfaces. An application of each studied surfaces is show...

  6. Global distribution of Earth's surface shortwave radiation budget

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hatzianastassiou

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The monthly mean shortwave (SW radiation budget at the Earth's surface (SRB was computed on 2.5-degree longitude-latitude resolution for the 17-year period from 1984 to 2000, using a radiative transfer model accounting for the key physical parameters that determine the surface SRB, and long-term climatological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-D2. The model input data were supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Global Reanalysis projects, and other global data bases such as TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS and Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS. The model surface radiative fluxes were validated against surface measurements from 22 stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN covering the years 1992-2000, and from 700 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, covering the period 1984-2000. The model is in good agreement with BSRN and GEBA, with a negative bias of 14 and 6.5 Wm-2, respectively. The model is able to reproduce interesting features of the seasonal and geographical variation of the surface SW fluxes at global scale. Based on the 17-year average model results, the global mean SW downward surface radiation (DSR is equal to 171.6 Wm-2, whereas the net downward (or absorbed surface SW radiation is equal to 149.4 Wm-2, values that correspond to 50.2 and 43.7% of the incoming SW radiation at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. These values involve a long-term surface albedo equal to 12.9%. Significant increasing trends in DSR and net DSR fluxes were found, equal to 4.1 and 3.7 Wm-2, respectively, over the 1984-2000 period (equivalent to 2.4 and 2.2 Wm-2 per decade, indicating an increasing surface solar radiative heating. This surface SW radiative heating is primarily attributed to clouds, especially low-level, and secondarily to

  7. Rough surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hudina, M.

    1982-08-01

    For the determination of the thermal-hydraulic performances of rough surfaces, the method of evaluation is particularly important. In order to increase confidence in the results, a new evaluation procedure was introduced. This procedure is based on the transformation of simple channel experimental results to equal boundary conditions, and on the suitable application and confirmation of these transformed values in more complicated flow channel geometries. Existing methods, applied to the results obtained in an annular channel, do not fulfil all the transformation requirements. Thus a new, more complete transformation method, which uses the turbulent eddy diffusivity model, was developed. To check the quality of this transformation, within the scope of the new evaluation procedure, the results of experimental investigation in annular channels and in a bundle of hexagonal geometry were used together with the predictions of benchmark calculations. The success of the new method was confirmed by extensive comparisons, with the results of different presently-acknowledged transformations being considered as well. Based on these comparisons an assessment of the individual transformations is given. (Auth.)

  8. Low-Frequency Variability of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass Identified from the China Coastal Waters and Adjacent Seas Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    266100, China 2Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Information Technology, SOA , National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171,China...dominant pattern of nonseasonal sea level pressure variability north of 20∘N. It is characterized by sea level pressure anomalies with opposite signs in...surface temperature variability north of 20∘N in the North Pacific, and it is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of the Pacific climate variability [21

  9. Application of the system of assimilation of climatic data (CDAS) of the Project NCEP/NCAR - Reanalysis Dates Set For climatological and synoptic ends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    In response to an increasing demand of meteorological information on a synoptic scale and the need for a better and more precise knowledge of the different atmospheric fields on a local, regional and global scale, the program known as GRADS, developed by COLA in the US, has been implemented. to show graphically meteorological patterns at the surface and at different levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere based on high-quality grid data prepared by NCEP/NCAR (NOAA)

  10. The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Verfaillie

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We introduce the method ADAMONT v1.0 to adjust and disaggregate daily climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM using an observational dataset at hourly time resolution. The method uses a refined quantile mapping approach for statistical adjustment and an analogous method for sub-daily disaggregation. The method ultimately produces adjusted hourly time series of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation, which can in turn be used to force any energy balance land surface model. While the method is generic and can be employed for any appropriate observation time series, here we focus on the description and evaluation of the method in the French mountainous regions. The observational dataset used here is the SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis, which covers the entire French Alps split into 23 massifs, within which meteorological conditions are provided for several 300 m elevation bands. In order to evaluate the skills of the method itself, it is applied to the ALADIN-Climate v5 RCM using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary conditions, for the time period from 1980 to 2010. Results of the ADAMONT method are compared to the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. Various evaluation criteria are used for temperature and precipitation but also snow depth, which is computed by the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus model using the meteorological driving data from either the adjusted RCM data or the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. The evaluation addresses in particular the time transferability of the method (using various learning/application time periods, the impact of the RCM grid point selection procedure for each massif/altitude band configuration, and the intervariable consistency of the adjusted meteorological data generated by the method. Results show that the performance of the method is satisfactory, with similar or even better evaluation metrics than alternative methods. However, results for air temperature are generally

  11. The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-11-01

    We introduce the method ADAMONT v1.0 to adjust and disaggregate daily climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) using an observational dataset at hourly time resolution. The method uses a refined quantile mapping approach for statistical adjustment and an analogous method for sub-daily disaggregation. The method ultimately produces adjusted hourly time series of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation, which can in turn be used to force any energy balance land surface model. While the method is generic and can be employed for any appropriate observation time series, here we focus on the description and evaluation of the method in the French mountainous regions. The observational dataset used here is the SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis, which covers the entire French Alps split into 23 massifs, within which meteorological conditions are provided for several 300 m elevation bands. In order to evaluate the skills of the method itself, it is applied to the ALADIN-Climate v5 RCM using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary conditions, for the time period from 1980 to 2010. Results of the ADAMONT method are compared to the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. Various evaluation criteria are used for temperature and precipitation but also snow depth, which is computed by the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus model using the meteorological driving data from either the adjusted RCM data or the SAFRAN reanalysis itself. The evaluation addresses in particular the time transferability of the method (using various learning/application time periods), the impact of the RCM grid point selection procedure for each massif/altitude band configuration, and the intervariable consistency of the adjusted meteorological data generated by the method. Results show that the performance of the method is satisfactory, with similar or even better evaluation metrics than alternative methods. However, results for air temperature are generally better than for

  12. Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Data Release 5.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Paul W. (Principal Investigator)

    The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set contains over 200 parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems.The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree].

  13. Experiences With an Optimal Estimation Algorithm for Surface and Atmospheric Parameter Retrieval From Passive Microwave Data in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scarlat, Raul Cristian; Heygster, Georg; Pedersen, Leif Toudal

    2017-01-01

    the brightness temperatures observed by a passive microwave radiometer. The retrieval method inverts the forward model and produces ensembles of the seven parameters, wind speed, integrated water vapor, liquid water path, sea and ice temperature, sea ice concentration and multiyear ice fraction. The method...... compared with the Arctic Systems Reanalysis model data as well as columnar water vapor retrieved from satellite microwave sounders and the Remote Sensing Systems AMSR-E ocean retrieval product in order to determine the feasibility of using the same setup over pure surface with 100% and 0% sea ice cover......, respectively. Sea ice concentration retrieval shows good skill for pure surface cases. Ice types retrieval is in good agreement with scatterometer backscatter data. Deficiencies have been identified in using the forward model over sea ice for retrieving atmospheric parameters, that are connected...

  14. Re-analysis of martian gully orientation and slope for comparison with climate model predictions of freeze-thaw and dry-ice sublimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Susan; Harrison, Tanya; Lewis, Stephen; Balme, Matthew; Soare, Richard; Britton, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Gullies on Mars are kilometre-scale landforms, comprising an erosional alcove and channel and a terminal debris apron/fan. These landforms are similar to features on Earth carved by the flow of liquid water, or by the action of water rich debris flows. The majority gullies on Mars are believed to be (at most) ˜5 Ma old and both erosion and deposition within these features have been observed within the last 10 years of orbital observations. At present liquid water is not thermodynamically stable at the martian surface and many of the recent changes in surface morphology occur during winter and early spring, when temperatures are too low for even metastable liquid water to be produced. Therefore, researchers have proposed an alternative mechanism for gully-formation - the sublimation of solid CO2, which is deposited on the maritan surface every winter. Previous studies have revealed that gully-density and orientation varies systematically with latitude - a fact that led to the development of many climate-based hypotheses for their formation. Here, we use the global database of martian gullies and extract the orientation and slope-angle of gully-hosting-slopes. We find that gully-orientation is more even strongly controlled by latitude than previous studies, where more sparse data were used. From ˜30-40° latitude in both hemispheres, gullies are almost never found on equator-facing slopes, and polewards of 40° gullies have a tendency to be located on equator-facing slopes. We use a 1D version of the LMD Mars climate model physics to simulate surface temperature on slopes up to 35° , oriented to face north or south, for all latitudes (5° spacing), and for orbital obliquities of 5-55° . We otherwise use current orbital conditions (ellipticity, date of perihelion) and we use a constant thermal inertia of the substrate of 1000 Jm-2K-1s-1/2and a bare soil albedo of 0.2. We extracted two pieces of information from a complete annual cycle: (i) The number of hours

  15. Modelagem da maré meteorológica utilizando redes neurais artificiais: uma aplicação para a Baía de Paranaguá-PR, parte 2: dados meteorológicos de reanálise do NCEP/NCAR Meteorological tide modeling using an artificial neural netwok: an aplication to the Paranaguá Bay-PR: part 2: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meterological data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilia Mitidieri F. de Oliveira

    2007-04-01

    álise sugerem a sua utilização na falta de estações meteorológicas convencionais próximas a estações maregráficas.The variability of the observed sea level and the meteorological tide in Paranaguá Bay-PR was analyzed with the tide gauge station time series used in the Part 1 and reanalysis data set of the "National Centers for Environmental Prediction" (NCEP and the "National Center Atmospheric Research" (NCAR, on some grid points over the oceanic area, near the Bay to the same period. The Thompson low-pass filter was adapted for 6 hours intervals to remove the high frequency oscillations present in teh reanalysis data set. Remote influence of the meteorological variables, in the rises and lowing of the coastal sea level, are analyzed, statistically, in the time and the frequency domain according to the Part 1. Tide gauge station time series from Cananéia (SP, used to verify the correlation with Paranaguá data set, confirmed the Mesquita (1997 research to the southeastern coastal region. Correlation between the variability of the meteorological tide in both cities were made due to the point 1 is near Cananéia. Artificial Neural Network (ANN with the same architecture developed in Part 1 was applied to the reanalysis data. The maxima correlations between the input/output vectors were also used, adjusting the learning rate and momentum for improving the algorithm to reach the best performance. As the Part 1, the network performed very well at 6 and 12 time lag simulations. The results to 18 and 24 time lag simulations were lower than these ones presented to the surface station, than these ones, suggesting also, others ANN architectures to improve the predictions for larger periods. The results suggest the using of reanalysis data where the lack of conventional station is significant.

  16. Transboundary Contributions To Surface Ozone In California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, A.; Faloona, I. C.; Conley, S. A.; Lighthall, D.

    2014-12-01

    Rising concern over the impacts of exogenous air pollution in California's Central Valley has prompted the establishment of a coastal, high altitude monitoring site at the Chews Ridge Observatory (1550 m) approximately 30 km east of Point Sur in Monterey County, under the auspices of the Monterey Institute for Research in Astronomy. Two and a half years of continuous ozone data are presented in the context of long-range transport and its potential impact on surface air quality in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Past attempts to quantify the impact of transboundary ozone on surface levels have relied on uncertain model estimates, or have been limited to weekly ozonesonde data. Here, we present an observationally derived quantification of the contribution of free tropospheric ozone to surface sites in the San Joaquin Valley throughout three ozone seasons (June through September, 2012-2014). The diurnal ozone patterns at Chews Ridge, and their correlations with ozone aloft over the Valley, have been presented previously. Furthermore, reanalysis data of geopotential heights indicate consistent flow from Chews Ridge to the East, directly over the SJV. In a related airborne project we quantify the vertical exchange, or entrainment, rate over the Southern SJV from a series of focused flights measuring ozone concentrations during peak photochemical hours in conjunction with local meteorological data to quantify an ozone budget for the area. By applying the entrainment rates observed in that study here we are able to quantify the seasonal contributions of free tropospheric ozone measured at Chews Ridge to surface sites in the San Joaquin Valley, and compare prior model estimates to our observationally derived values.

  17. Olmesartan vs ramipril in the treatment of hypertension and associated clinical conditions in the elderly: a reanalysis of two large double-blind, randomized studies at the light of the most recent blood pressure targets recommended by guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omboni, Stefano; Malacco, Ettore; Mallion, Jean-Michel; Volpe, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present the results of a reanalysis of the data of two large randomized, double-blind, parallel group studies with a similar design, comparing the efficacy of an angiotensin-receptor blocker (olmesartan medoxomil) with that of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ramipril), by applying two different blood pressure targets recently recommended by hypertension guidelines for all patients, irrespective of the presence of diabetes (hypertensive patients (hypertension type, diabetes status or other concomitant clinical conditions, or cardiovascular risk factors. In most cases, olmesartan provided better blood pressure control than ramipril. Olmesartan was significantly more effective than ramipril in male patients, in younger patients (aged 65–69 years), in those with metabolic syndrome, obesity, dyslipidemia, preserved renal function, diastolic ± systolic hypertension, and, in general, in patients with a high or very high cardiovascular risk. Interestingly, patients previously untreated or treated with two or more antihypertensive drugs showed a significantly larger response with olmesartan than with ramipril. Thus, our results confirm the good efficacy of olmesartan in elderly hypertensives even when new blood pressure targets for antihypertensive treatment are considered. Such results may be relevant for the clinical practice, providing some hint on the possible different response of elderly hypertensive patients to two different drugs acting on the renin–angiotensin system, when patients are targeted according to the blood pressure levels recommended by recent hypertension guidelines. PMID:26491273

  18. Development and Assessment of the Sand Dust Prediction Model by Utilizing Microwave-Based Satellite Soil Moisture and Reanalysis Datasets in East Asian Desert Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunglok Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For several decades, satellite-based microwave sensors have provided valuable soil moisture monitoring in various surface conditions. We have first developed a modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD dataset by utilizing Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2, and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS soil moisture datasets in order to estimate dust outbreaks over desert areas of East Asia. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer- (MODIS- based AOD products were used as reference datasets to validate the modeled AOD (MA. The SMOS-based MA (SMOS-MA dataset showed good correspondence with observed AOD (R-value: 0.56 compared to AMSR2- and GLDAS-based MA datasets, and it overestimated AOD compared to observed AOD. The AMSR2-based MA dataset was found to underestimate AOD, and it showed a relatively low R-value (0.35 with respect to observed AOD. Furthermore, SMOS-MA products were able to simulate the short-term AOD trends, having a high R-value (0.65. The results of this study may allow us to acknowledge the utilization of microwave-based soil moisture datasets for investigation of near-real time dust outbreak predictions and short-term dust outbreak trend analysis.

  19. On surface approximation using developable surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, H. Y.; Lee, I. K.; Leopoldseder, s.

    1999-01-01

    We introduce a method for approximating a given surface by a developable surface. It will be either a G(1) surface consisting of pieces of cones or cylinders of revolution or a G(r) NURBS developable surface. Our algorithm will also deal properly with the problems of reverse engineering and produ...... robust approximation of given scattered data. The presented technique can be applied in computer aided manufacturing, e.g. in shipbuilding. (C) 1999 Academic Press....

  20. On surface approximation using developable surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, H. Y.; Lee, I. K.; Leopoldseder, S.

    1998-01-01

    We introduce a method for approximating a given surface by a developable surface. It will be either a G_1 surface consisting of pieces of cones or cylinders of revolution or a G_r NURBS developable surface. Our algorithm will also deal properly with the problems of reverse engineering and produce...... robust approximation of given scattered data. The presented technique can be applied in computer aided manufacturing, e.g. in shipbuilding....

  1. Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

  2. Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Counillon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We document a pilot stochastic re-analysis computed by assimilating sea surface temperature (SST anomalies into the ocean component of the coupled Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM for the period 1950–2010 (doi: 10.11582/2016.00002. NorCPM is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model and uses the ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation (DA. Here, we assimilate SST from the stochastic HadISST2 historical reconstruction. The accuracy, reliability and drift are investigated using both assimilated and independent observations. NorCPM is slightly overdispersive against assimilated observations but shows stable performance through the analysis period. It demonstrates skills against independent measurements: sea surface height, heat and salt content, in particular in the Equatorial and North Pacific, the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG region and the Nordic Seas. Furthermore, NorCPM provides a reliable monitoring of the SPG index and represents the vertical temperature variability there, in good agreement with observations. The monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also encouraging. The benefit of using a flow-dependent assimilation method and constructing the covariance in isopycnal coordinates are investigated in the SPG region. Isopycnal coordinates discretisation is found to better capture the vertical structure than standard depth-coordinate discretisation, because it leads to a deeper influence of the assimilated surface observations. The vertical covariance shows a pronounced seasonal and decadal variability that highlights the benefit of flow-dependent DA method. This study demonstrates the potential of NorCPM to compute an ocean re-analysis for the 19th and 20th centuries when SST observations are available.

  3. Parametrization of translational surfaces

    OpenAIRE

    Perez-Diaz, Sonia; Shen, Liyong

    2014-01-01

    The algebraic translational surface is a typical modeling surface in computer aided design and architecture industry. In this paper, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for that algebraic surface having a standard parametric representation and our proof is constructive. If the given algebraic surface is translational, then we can compute a standard parametric representation for the surface.

  4. Changes in surface energy partitioning in China over the past three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Yitian; Hsu, Pang-Chi; Cheng, Chi-Han

    2017-05-01

    Surface energy balance and the partitioning of sensible heat flux (SHF) and latent heat flux (LHF) play key roles in land-atmosphere feedback. However, the lack of long-term observations of surface energy fluxes, not to mention spatially extensive ones, limits our understanding of how the surface energy distribution has responded to a warming climate over recent decades (1979-2009) at the national scale in China. Using four state-of-the-art reanalysis products with long-term surface energy outputs, we identified robust changes in surface energy partitioning, defined by the Bowen ratio (BR = SHF/LHF), over different climate regimes in China. Over the past three decades, the net radiation showed an increasing trend over almost the whole of China. The increase in available radiative energy flux, however, was balanced by differential partitioning of surface turbulent fluxes, determined by local hydrological conditions. In semi-arid areas, such as Northeast China, the radiative energy was transferred largely into SHF. A severe deficiency in near-surface and soil moistures led to a significant decreasing trend in LHF. The combined effect of increased SHF and decreased LHF resulted in significant upward trends in the BR and surface warming over Northeast China. In contrast, in the wet monsoon regions, such as southern China, increased downward net radiation favored a rise in LHF rather than in SHF, leading to a significant decreasing trend in the BR. Meanwhile, the increased LHF partly cancelled out the surface warming. The warming trend in southern China was smaller than that in Northeast China. In addition to impacts on heat-related events, the changes in the BR also reflected recent cases of extreme drought in China. Our results indicate that information regarding the BR may be valuable for drought monitoring, especially in regions prone to such conditions.

  5. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  6. An Improved Local Gradient Method for Sea Surface Wind Direction Retrieval from SAR Imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lizhang Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface wind affects the fluxes of energy, mass and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean, and therefore regional and global weather and climate. With various satellite microwave sensors, sea surface wind can be measured with large spatial coverage in almost all-weather conditions, day or night. Like any other remote sensing measurements, sea surface wind measurement is also indirect. Therefore, it is important to develop appropriate wind speed and direction retrieval models for different types of microwave instruments. In this paper, a new sea surface wind direction retrieval method from synthetic aperture radar (SAR imagery is developed. In the method, local gradients are computed in frequency domain by combining the operation of smoothing and computing local gradients in one step to simplify the process and avoid the difference approximation. This improved local gradients (ILG method is compared with the traditional two-dimensional fast Fourier transform (2D FFT method and local gradients (LG method, using interpolating wind directions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF reanalysis data and the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP wind vector product. The sensitivities to the salt-and-pepper noise, the additive noise and the multiplicative noise are analyzed. The ILG method shows a better performance of retrieval wind directions than the other two methods.

  7. The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somavilla, R; González-Pola, C; Fernández-Diaz, J

    2017-09-01

    Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m  decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

  8. The warmer the ocean surface, the shallower the mixed layer. How much of this is true?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somavilla, R.; González-Pola, C.; Fernández-Diaz, J.

    2017-09-01

    Ocean surface warming is commonly associated with a more stratified, less productive, and less oxygenated ocean. Such an assertion is mainly based on consistent projections of increased near-surface stratification and shallower mixed layers under global warming scenarios. However, while the observed sea surface temperature (SST) is rising at midlatitudes, the concurrent ocean record shows that stratification is not unequivocally increasing nor is MLD shoaling. We find that while SST increases at three study areas at midlatitudes, stratification both increases and decreases, and MLD deepens with enhanced deepening of winter MLDs at rates over 10 m decade-1. These results rely on the estimation of several MLD and stratification indexes of different complexity on hydrographic profiles from long-term hydrographic time-series, ocean reanalysis, and Argo floats. Combining this information with estimated MLDs from buoyancy fluxes and the enhanced deepening/attenuation of the winter MLD trends due to changes in the Ekman pumping, MLD variability involves a subtle interplay between circulation and atmospheric forcing at midlatitudes. Besides, it is highlighted that the density difference between the surface and 200 m, the most widely used stratification index, should not be expected to reliably inform about changes in the vertical extent of mixing.

  9. Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Selective surfaces have wavelength dependent emissivity/absorption. These surfaces can be designed to reflect solar radiation, while maximizing infrared emittance,...

  10. Characterization of solid surfaces

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kane, Philip F; Larrabee, Graydon B

    1974-01-01

    .... A comprehensive review of surface analysis, this important volume surveys both principles and techniques of surface characterization, describes instrumentation, and suggests the course of future research...

  11. Open algebraic surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Miyanishi, Masayoshi

    2000-01-01

    Open algebraic surfaces are a synonym for algebraic surfaces that are not necessarily complete. An open algebraic surface is understood as a Zariski open set of a projective algebraic surface. There is a long history of research on projective algebraic surfaces, and there exists a beautiful Enriques-Kodaira classification of such surfaces. The research accumulated by Ramanujan, Abhyankar, Moh, and Nagata and others has established a classification theory of open algebraic surfaces comparable to the Enriques-Kodaira theory. This research provides powerful methods to study the geometry and topology of open algebraic surfaces. The theory of open algebraic surfaces is applicable not only to algebraic geometry, but also to other fields, such as commutative algebra, invariant theory, and singularities. This book contains a comprehensive account of the theory of open algebraic surfaces, as well as several applications, in particular to the study of affine surfaces. Prerequisite to understanding the text is a basic b...

  12. Inferring CO2 Fluxes from OCO-2 for Assimilation into Land Surface Models to Calculate Net Ecosystem Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prouty, R.; Radov, A.; Halem, M.; Nearing, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    Investigations of mid to high latitude atmospheric CO2 show a growing seasonal amplitude. Land surface models poorly predict net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and are unable to substantiate these sporadic observations. An investigation of how the biosphere has reacted to changes in atmospheric CO2 is essential to our understanding of potential climate-vegetation feedbacks. A global, seasonal investigation of CO2-flux is then necessary in order to assimilate into land surface models for improving the prediction of annual NEE. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM) of DOE collects CO2-flux measurements (in addition to CO2 concentration and various other meteorological quantities) at several towers located around the globe at half hour temporal frequencies. CO2-fluxes are calculated via the eddy covariance technique, which utilizes CO2-densities and wind velocities to calculate CO2-fluxes. The global coverage of CO2 concentrations as provided by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) provide satellite-derived CO2 concentrations all over the globe. A framework relating the satellite-inferred CO2 concentrations collocated with the ground-based ARM as well as Ameriflux stations would enable calculations of CO2-fluxes far from the station sites around the entire globe. Regression techniques utilizing deep-learning neural networks may provide such a framework. Additionally, meteorological reanalysis allows for the replacement of the ARM multivariable meteorological variables needed to infer the CO2-fluxes. We present the results of inferring CO2-fluxes from OCO-2 CO2 concentrations for a two year period, Sept. 2014- Sept. 2016 at the ARM station located near Oklahoma City. A feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is used to infer relationships between the following data sets: F([ARM CO2-density], [ARM Meteorological Data]) = [ARM CO2-Flux] F([OCO-2 CO2-density],[ARM Meteorological Data]) = [ARM CO2-Flux] F([ARM CO2-density],[Meteorological Reanalysis]) = [ARM CO2-Flux

  13. Developing of the database of meteorological and radiation fields for Moscow region (urban reanalysis) for 1981-2014 period with high spatial and temporal resolution. Strategy and first results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Platonov, Vladimir; Samsonov, Timofey; Zhdanova, Ekaterina; Chubarova, Natalia

    2017-04-01

    The main goal of this investigation is to develop a kind of "urban reanalysis" - the database of meteorological and radiation fields under Moscow megalopolis for period 1981-2014 with high spatial resolution. Main meteorological fields for Moscow region are reproduced with COSMO_CLM regional model (including urban parameters) with horizontal resolution 1x1 km. Time resolution of output fields is 1 hour. For radiation fields is quite useful to calculate SVF (Sky View Factor) for obtaining losses of UV radiation in complex urban conditions. Usually, the raster-based SVF analysis the shadow-casting algorithm proposed by Richens (1997) is popular (see Ratti and Richens 2004, Gal et al. 2008, for example). SVF image is obtained by combining shadow images obtained from different directions. An alternative is to use raster-based SVF calculation similar to vector approach using digital elevation model of urban relief. Output radiation field includes UV-radiation with horizontal resolution 1x1 km This study was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of the scientific project no. 15-35-21129 _mol_a_ved and project no 15-35-70006 mol_a_mos References: 1. Gal, T., Lindberg, F., and Unger, J., 2008. Computing continuous sky view factors using 3D urban raster and vector databases: comparison and application to urban climate. Theoretical and applied climatology, 95 (1-2), 111-123. 2. Richens, P., 1997. Image processing for urban scale environmental modelling. In: J.D. Spitler and J.L.M. Hensen, eds. th Intemational IBPSA Conference Building Simulation, Prague. 3. Ratti, C. and Richens, P., 2004. Raster analysis of urban form. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31 (2), 297-309.

  14. A new, high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica (1979-2010) based on regional atmospheric climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van de Berg, W. J.; van Meijgaard, E.; Kuipers Munneke, P.

    2012-02-01

    A new, high resolution (27 km) surface mass balance (SMB) map of the Antarctic ice sheet is presented, based on output of a regional atmospheric climate model that includes snowdrift physics and is forced by the most recent reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ERA-Interim (1979-2010). The SMB map confirms high accumulation zones in the western Antarctic Peninsula (>1500 mm y-1) and coastal West Antarctica (>1000 mm y-1), and shows low SMB values in large parts of the interior ice sheet (181 Gt y-1. Snowfall shows modest interannual variability (σ = 114 Gt y-1), but a pronounced seasonal cycle (σ = 30 Gt mo-1), with a winter maximum. The main ablation process is drifting snow sublimation, which also peaks in winter but with little interannual variability (σ = 9 Gt y-1).

  15. Surfaces with Natural Ridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David; Markvorsen, Steen

    2015-01-01

    We discuss surfaces with singularities, both in mathematics and in the real world. For many types of mathematical surface, singularities are natural and can be regarded as part of the surface. The most emblematic example is that of surfaces of constant negative Gauss curvature, all of which neces...

  16. Reconciling Land-Ocean Moisture Transport Variability in Reanalyses with P-ET in Observationally-Driven Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.

    2016-01-01

    Vertically integrated atmospheric moisture transport from ocean to land [vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux convergence (VMFC)] is a dynamic component of the global climate system but remains problematic in atmospheric reanalyses, with current estimates having significant multidecadal global trends differing even in sign. Continual evolution of the global observing system, particularly stepwise improvements in satellite observations, has introduced discrete changes in the ability of data assimilation to correct systematic model biases, manifesting as nonphysical variability. Land surface models (LSMs) forced with observed precipitation P and near-surface meteorology and radiation provide estimates of evapotranspiration (ET). Since variability of atmospheric moisture storage is small on interannual and longer time scales, VMFC equals P minus ET is a good approximation and LSMs can provide an alternative estimate. However, heterogeneous density of rain gauge coverage, especially the sparse coverage over tropical continents, remains a serious concern. Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) with prefiltering of VMFC to isolate the artificial variability is used to investigate artifacts in five reanalysis systems. This procedure, although ad hoc, enables useful VMFC corrections over global land. The P minus ET estimates from seven different LSMs are evaluated and subsequently used to confirm the efficacy of the RPCA-based adjustments. Global VMFC trends over the period 1979-2012 ranging from 0.07 to minus 0.03 millimeters per day per decade are reduced by the adjustments to 0.016 millimeters per day per decade, much closer to the LSM P minus ET estimate (0.007 millimeters per day per decade). Neither is significant at the 90 percent level. ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)-related modulation of VMFC and P minus ET remains the largest global interannual signal, with mean LSM and adjusted reanalysis time series correlating at 0.86.

  17. Weyl nodal surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Türker, Oǧuz; Moroz, Sergej

    2018-02-01

    We consider three-dimensional fermionic band theories that exhibit Weyl nodal surfaces defined as two-band degeneracies that form closed surfaces in the Brillouin zone. We demonstrate that topology ensures robustness of these objects under small perturbations of a Hamiltonian. This topological robustness is illustrated in several four-band models that exhibit nodal surfaces protected by unitary or antiunitary symmetries. Surface states and Nielsen-Ninomiya doubling of nodal surfaces are also investigated.

  18. Surface Topography Hinders Bacterial Surface Motility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yow-Ren; Weeks, Eric R; Ducker, William A

    2018-03-21

    We demonstrate that the surface motility of the bacterium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, is hindered by a crystalline hemispherical topography with wavelength in the range of 2-8 μm. The motility was determined by the analysis of time-lapse microscopy images of cells in a flowing growth medium maintained at 37 °C. The net displacement of bacteria over 5 min is much lower on surfaces containing 2-8 μm hemispheres than on flat topography, but displacement on the 1 μm hemispheres is not lower. That is, there is a threshold between 1 and 2 μm for response to the topography. Cells on the 4 μm hemispheres were more likely to travel parallel to the local crystal axis than in other directions. Cells on the 8 μm topography were less likely to travel across the crowns of the hemispheres and were also more likely to make 30°-50° turns than on flat surfaces. These results show that surface topography can act as a significant barrier to surface motility and may therefore hinder surface exploration by bacteria. Because surface exploration can be a part of the process whereby bacteria form colonies and seek nutrients, these results help to elucidate the mechanism by which surface topography hinders biofilm formation.

  19. SURFACE PHOTOMETRY OF LOW SURFACE BRIGHTNESS GALAXIES

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DEBLOK, WJG; VANDERHULST, JM; BOTHUN, GD

    1995-01-01

    Low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies are galaxies dominated by an exponential disc whose central surface brightness is much fainter than the value of mu(B)(0) = 21.65 +/- 0.30 mag arcsec(-2) found by Freeman. In this paper we present broadband photometry of a sample of 21 late-type LSB galaxies.

  20. Surface-Atmosphere Moisture Coupling in Eurasian Frozen Ground Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfeld, O. W.; Ford, T.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost represents an impermeable barrier to moisture, resulting in a saturated or near-saturated surface layer during the warm season in many continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones. These surface conditions could lead to enhanced convection and precipitation during the warm season, and significant local recycling of moisture. In areas underlain by sporadic or isolated permafrost, or in seasonally frozen areas, the moisture can drain away more readily, resulting in much drier soil conditions. As climate change causes frozen ground degradation, this will thus also alter the patterns of atmospheric convection, moisture recycling, and the hydrologic cycle in high-latitude land areas. In this study, we analyze evaporative fraction (EF) as a proxy for evapotranspiration, and precipitation from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-land) reanalysis dataset. We focus on 1979-2012 and document patterns and changes in EF over the Eurasian high latitudes. We find strong, positive April EF trends over the study period, particularly in the Lena River Basin, 80% of which is underlain by continuous permafrost. In fact, these significant positive trends in spring EF are strongest over continuous permafrost across the Eurasian high latitudes, but negative for sporadic and isolated permafrost. In addition, we find a strong, statistically significant relationship between EF anomalies and the probability of subsequent precipitation over the Lena Basin during April. This association therefore suggests a potential land-atmosphere coupling between frozen ground and precipitation. As the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground distribution changes in the future, this will likely have repercussions for the Arctic hydrologic cycle.

  1. The impact of land surface temperature on soil moisture anomaly detection from passive microwave observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Parinussa

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available For several years passive microwave observations have been used to retrieve soil moisture from the Earth's surface. Low frequency observations have the most sensitivity to soil moisture, therefore the current Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS and future Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP satellite missions observe the Earth's surface in the L-band frequency. In the past, several satellite sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E and WindSat have been used to retrieve surface soil moisture using multi-channel observations obtained at higher microwave frequencies. While AMSR-E and WindSat lack an L-band channel, they are able to leverage multi-channel microwave observations to estimate additional land surface parameters. In particular, the availability of Ka-band observations allows AMSR-E and WindSat to obtain coincident surface temperature estimates required for the retrieval of surface soil moisture. In contrast, SMOS and SMAP carry only a single frequency radiometer and therefore lack an instrument suited to estimate the physical temperature of the Earth. Instead, soil moisture algorithms from these new generation satellites rely on ancillary sources of surface temperature (e.g. re-analysis or near real time data from weather prediction centres. A consequence of relying on such ancillary data is the need for temporal and spatial interpolation, which may introduce uncertainties. Here, two newly-developed, large-scale soil moisture evaluation techniques, the triple collocation (TC approach and the Rvalue data assimilation approach, are applied to quantify the global-scale impact of replacing Ka-band based surface temperature retrievals with Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA surface temperature output on the accuracy of WindSat and AMSR-E based surface soil moisture retrievals. Results demonstrate that under sparsely vegetated conditions, the use of

  2. Assimilation of Freeze-Thaw Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhadi, L.; Reichle, R. H.; De Lannoy, G. J.; Kimball, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    The land surface freeze/thaw (F/T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and net primary productivity at the land surface. To support the level 4 soil moisture and carbon products (value-added, i.e. using a combination of remote sensing data and modeling) for the planned NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, an F/T assimilation algorithm is developed for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F/T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. A rule-based approach that incorporates model and observational errors is developed and used for assimilating the categorical F/T measurements into the land surface model (F/T analysis). An Observing System Simulation Experiment is conducted using synthetically generated measurements of the F/T state for a region in North America (90-110oW longitude, 45-55oN latitude). The synthetic 'truth' is generated using the NASA Catchment land surface model forced with surface meteorological fields from the Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). To generate synthetic measurements, the true categorical F/T state is corrupted with a prescribed amount of F/T classification error. The assimilation experiment employs the same Catchment model except that forcing errors (relative to truth) are introduced via the application of meteorological forcing fields from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The effect of the F/T analysis and classification error on land surface temperature and soil temperature predictions is examined in this research.

  3. Recent Improvements in Retrieving Near-Surface Air Temperature and Humidity Using Microwave Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent

    2010-01-01

    Detailed studies of the energy and water cycles require accurate estimation of the turbulent fluxes of moisture and heat across the atmosphere-ocean interface at regional to basin scale. Providing estimates of these latent and sensible heat fluxes over the global ocean necessitates the use of satellite or reanalysis-based estimates of near surface variables. Recent studies have shown that errors in the surface (10 meter)estimates of humidity and temperature are currently the largest sources of uncertainty in the production of turbulent fluxes from satellite observations. Therefore, emphasis has been placed on reducing the systematic errors in the retrieval of these parameters from microwave radiometers. This study discusses recent improvements in the retrieval of air temperature and humidity through improvements in the choice of algorithms (linear vs. nonlinear) and the choice of microwave sensors. Particular focus is placed on improvements using a neural network approach with a single sensor (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) and the use of combined sensors from the NASA AQUA satellite platform. The latter algorithm utilizes the unique sampling available on AQUA from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A). Current estimates of uncertainty in the near-surface humidity and temperature from single and multi-sensor approaches are discussed and used to estimate errors in the turbulent fluxes.

  4. Global land surface climate analysis based on the calculation of a modified Bowen ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Bo; Lü, Shihua; Li, Ruiqing; Wang, Xin; Zhao, Lin; Zhao, Cailing; Wang, Danyun; Meng, Xianhong

    2017-05-01

    A modified Bowen ratio (BRm), the sign of which is determined by the direction of the surface sensible heat flux, was used to represent the major divisions in climate across the globe, and the usefulness of this approach was evaluated. Five reanalysis datasets and the results of an offline land surface model were investigated. We divided the global continents into five major BRm zones using the climatological means of the sensible and latent heat fluxes during the period 1980-2010: extremely cold, extremely wet, semi-wet, semi-arid and extremely arid. These zones had BRm ranges of (-∞, 0), (0, 0.5), (0.5, 2), (2, 10) and (10, +∞), respectively. The climatological mean distribution of the Bowen ratio zones corresponded well with the K¨oppen-like climate classification, and it reflected well the seasonal variation for each subdivision of climate classification. The features of climate change over the mean climatological BRm zones were also investigated. In addition to giving a map-like classification of climate, the BRm also reflects temporal variations in different climatic zones based on land surface processes. An investigation of the coverage of the BRm zones showed that the extremely wet and extremely arid regions expanded, whereas a reduction in area was seen for the semi-wet and semi-arid regions in boreal spring during the period 1980-2010. This indicates that the arid regions may have become drier and the wet regions wetter over this period of time.

  5. Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

  6. Computer aided surface representation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnhill, R E

    1987-11-01

    The aims of this research are the creation of new surface forms and the determination of geometric and physical properties of surfaces. The full sweep from constructive mathematics through the implementation of algorithms and the interactive computer graphics display of surfaces is utilized. Both three-dimensional and multi- dimensional surfaces are considered. Particular emphasis is given to the scientific computing solution of Department of Energy problems. The methods that we have developed and that we are proposing to develop allow applications such as: Producing smooth contour maps from measured data, such as weather maps. Modeling the heat distribution inside a furnace from sample measurements. Terrain modeling based on satellite pictures. The investigation of new surface forms includes the topics of triangular interpolants, multivariate interpolation, surfaces defined on surfaces and monotone and/or convex surfaces. The geometric and physical properties considered include contours, the intersection of surfaces, curvatures as a interrogation tool, and numerical integration.

  7. Mechanics of active surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salbreux, Guillaume; Jülicher, Frank

    2017-09-01

    We derive a fully covariant theory of the mechanics of active surfaces. This theory provides a framework for the study of active biological or chemical processes at surfaces, such as the cell cortex, the mechanics of epithelial tissues, or reconstituted active systems on surfaces. We introduce forces and torques acting on a surface, and derive the associated force balance conditions. We show that surfaces with in-plane rotational symmetry can have broken up-down, chiral, or planar-chiral symmetry. We discuss the rate of entropy production in the surface and write linear constitutive relations that satisfy the Onsager relations. We show that the bending modulus, the spontaneous curvature, and the surface tension of a passive surface are renormalized by active terms. Finally, we identify active terms which are not found in a passive theory and discuss examples of shape instabilities that are related to active processes in the surface.

  8. Evidence for significant urbanization and land - use change effect on surface wind speed in Eastern China during 1960 - 1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Y.; Zhou, T.

    2016-12-01

    The long-term decrease of surface wind speed has been revealed by previous studies in China in recent years, but the reasons for that decrease remain uncertain. In this article, we present evidence for the impact of urbanization and other land-use changes on surface wind speed in the eastern China where has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic growth by comparing the observed and the reanalysis data surface wind speed trends during 1960 - 1999. The results show that the decreasing of annual mean surface wind speed of 0.071 m·s-1 per decade attributable to urbanization, which suggest that about half of the observed decrease is due to urban and other land - use changes. Seasonally, the decreasing of summer/winter mean surface wind speed of 0.05/0.081 m·s-1 per decade attributable to urbanization, which suggest that about 60/46 percentage of the observed decrease is due to urban and other land - use changes .

  9. Advanced Surface Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Per; Nielsen, Lars Pleht

    This new significant book on advanced modern surface technology in all its variations, is aimed at both teaching at engineering schools and practical application in industry. The work covers all the significant aspects of modern surface technology and also describes how new advanced techniques make...... of the components. It covers everything from biocompatible surfaces of IR absorbent or reflective surfaces to surfaces with specific properties within low friction, hardness, corrosion, colors, etc. The book includes more than 400 pages detailing virtually all analysis methods for examining at surfaces....

  10. Regularity of Minimal Surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Dierkes, Ulrich; Tromba, Anthony J; Kuster, Albrecht

    2010-01-01

    "Regularity of Minimal Surfaces" begins with a survey of minimal surfaces with free boundaries. Following this, the basic results concerning the boundary behaviour of minimal surfaces and H-surfaces with fixed or free boundaries are studied. In particular, the asymptotic expansions at interior and boundary branch points are derived, leading to general Gauss-Bonnet formulas. Furthermore, gradient estimates and asymptotic expansions for minimal surfaces with only piecewise smooth boundaries are obtained. One of the main features of free boundary value problems for minimal surfaces is t

  11. Coping and schizophrenia: a re-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudnick, Abraham; Martins, Jennifer

    2009-02-01

    Standard notions of coping have not been particularly fruitful in the study of schizophrenia. However, facilitation of adaptive coping with serious mental illnesses such as schizophrenia is an important part of mental health care in general and of psychiatric nursing in particular. This study explored factors of coping and examined their relation with symptom severity and with quality of life of outpatients with schizophrenia. Data were analyzed from a previous cross-sectional study, using the Ways of Coping Checklist, the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, and the Wisconsin Quality of Life Index. A principal component factor analysis was performed on the Ways of Coping Checklist scores, and the resulting six coping factors were then tested for correlations with Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and Wisconsin Quality of Life Index scores. Factors conceptually linked with emotion-focused coping were more strongly associated with symptom severity and with quality of life than were factors conceptually linked with problem-focused coping. The emotion-focused versus problem-focused coping framework was only partly explanatory. It may be fruitful to study whether supportive counseling enhances beneficial factors conceptually linked with emotion-focused coping of individuals with schizophrenia.

  12. Efficient Reanalysis Procedures in Structural Topology Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded

    This thesis examines efficient solution procedures for the structural analysis problem within topology optimization. The research is motivated by the observation that when the nested approach to structural optimization is applied, most of the computational effort is invested in repeated solutions...... effort invested in the solution of the nested problem is even more dominant since nonlinear equation systems are to be solved repeatedly. Efficient procedures for nonlinear structural analysis are proposed, based on transferring solutions and factorized tangent stiffnesses from one design cycle...... is on the utilization of various approximations to the solution of the analysis problem, where the underlying model corresponds to linear elasticity. For computational environments that enable the direct solution of large linear equation systems using matrix factorization, we propose efficient procedures based...

  13. ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

  14. PREFACE: Vibrations at surfaces Vibrations at surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Talat S.

    2011-12-01

    This special issue is dedicated to the phenomenon of vibrations at surfaces—a topic that was indispensible a couple of decades ago, since it was one of the few phenomena capable of revealing the nature of binding at solid surfaces. For clean surfaces, the frequencies of modes with characteristic displacement patterns revealed how surface geometry, as well as the nature of binding between atoms in the surface layers, could be different from that in the bulk solid. Dispersion of the surface phonons provided further measures of interatomic interactions. For chemisorbed molecules on surfaces, frequencies and dispersion of the vibrational modes were also critical for determining adsorption sites. In other words, vibrations at surfaces served as a reliable means of extracting information about surface structure, chemisorption and overlayer formation. Experimental techniques, such as electron energy loss spectroscopy and helium-atom-surface scattering, coupled with infra-red spectroscopy, were continually refined and their resolutions enhanced to capture subtleties in the dynamics of atoms and molecules at surfaces. Theoretical methods, whether based on empirical and semi-empirical interatomic potential or on ab initio electronic structure calculations, helped decipher experimental observations and provide deeper insights into the nature of the bond between atoms and molecules in regions of reduced symmetry, as encountered on solid surfaces. Vibrations at surfaces were thus an integral part of the set of phenomena that characterized surface science. Dedicated workshops and conferences were held to explore the variety of interesting and puzzling features revealed in experimental and theoretical investigations of surface vibrational modes and their dispersion. One such conference, Vibrations at Surfaces, first organized by Harald Ibach in Juelich in 1980, continues to this day. The 13th International Conference on Vibrations at Surfaces was held at the University of

  15. Smooth polyhedral surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Günther, Felix

    2017-03-15

    Polyhedral surfaces are fundamental objects in architectural geometry and industrial design. Whereas closeness of a given mesh to a smooth reference surface and its suitability for numerical simulations were already studied extensively, the aim of our work is to find and to discuss suitable assessments of smoothness of polyhedral surfaces that only take the geometry of the polyhedral surface itself into account. Motivated by analogies to classical differential geometry, we propose a theory of smoothness of polyhedral surfaces including suitable notions of normal vectors, tangent planes, asymptotic directions, and parabolic curves that are invariant under projective transformations. It is remarkable that seemingly mild conditions significantly limit the shapes of faces of a smooth polyhedral surface. Besides being of theoretical interest, we believe that smoothness of polyhedral surfaces is of interest in the architectural context, where vertices and edges of polyhedral surfaces are highly visible.

  16. Integrated Surface Dataset (Global)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Integrated Surface (ISD) Dataset (ISD) is composed of worldwide surface weather observations from over 35,000 stations, though the best spatial coverage is...

  17. Surface Prognostic Charts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Prognostic Charts are historical surface prognostic (forecast) charts created by the United States Weather Bureau. They include fronts, isobars, cloud, and...

  18. Advanced Surface Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Per; Nielsen, Lars Pleht

    of the components. It covers everything from biocompatible surfaces of IR absorbent or reflective surfaces to surfaces with specific properties within low friction, hardness, corrosion, colors, etc. The book includes more than 400 pages detailing virtually all analysis methods for examining at surfaces.......This new significant book on advanced modern surface technology in all its variations, is aimed at both teaching at engineering schools and practical application in industry. The work covers all the significant aspects of modern surface technology and also describes how new advanced techniques make...... it possible to examine surfaces all the way down to their atomic layers and also to perform realistic durability tests. The many surface techniques are described in clear and simple language, and the book is richly illustrated with detailed drawings and photos. It also deals with replacing environmentally...

  19. Apollo Surface Panoramas

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Apollo Surface Panoramas is a digital library of photographic panoramas that the Apollo astronauts took while exploring the Moon's surface. These images provide a...

  20. Olmesartan vs ramipril in the treatment of hypertension and associated clinical conditions in the elderly: a reanalysis of two large double blind, randomized studies at the light of the most recent blood pressure targets recommended by guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omboni S

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Stefano Omboni,1 Ettore Malacco,2 Jean-Michel Mallion,3 Massimo Volpe4,5 1Clinical Research Unit, Italian Institute of Telemedicine, Solbiate Arno, Varese, Italy; 2Department of Internal Medicine, Ospedale L Sacco, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; 3Cardiology and Arterial Hypertension, CHU de Grenoble, Grenoble, France; 4Division of Cardiology, II Faculty of Medicine, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Sant’Andrea Hospital, Rome, Italy; 5IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli, Isernia, Italy Abstract: In this paper, we present the results of a reanalysis of the data of two large randomized, double-blind, parallel group studies with a similar design, comparing the efficacy of an angiotensin-receptor blocker (olmesartan medoxomil with that of an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ramipril, by applying two different blood pressure targets recently recommended by hypertension guidelines for all patients, irrespective of the presence of diabetes (<140/90 mmHg, and for elderly hypertensive patients (<150/90 mmHg. The efficacy of olmesartan was not negatively affected by age, sex, hypertension type, diabetes status or other concomitant clinical conditions, or cardiovascular risk factors. In most cases, olmesartan provided better blood pressure control than ramipril. Olmesartan was significantly more effective than ramipril in male patients, in younger patients (aged 65–69 years, in those with metabolic syndrome, obesity, dyslipidemia, preserved renal function, diastolic ± systolic hypertension, and, in general, in patients with a high or very high cardiovascular risk. Interestingly, patients previously untreated or treated with two or more antihypertensive drugs showed a significantly larger response with olmesartan than with ramipril. Thus, our results confirm the good efficacy of olmesartan in elderly hypertensives even when new blood pressure targets for antihypertensive treatment are considered. Such results may be relevant for the clinical

  1. Development of CDMS-II Surface Event Rejection Techniques and Their Extensions to Lower Energy Thresholds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofer, Thomas James [Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2014-12-01

    The CDMS-II phase of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search, a dark matter direct-detection experiment, was operated at the Soudan Underground Laboratory from 2003 to 2008. The full payload consisted of 30 ZIP detectors, totaling approximately 1.1 kg of Si and 4.8 kg of Ge, operated at temperatures of 50 mK. The ZIP detectors read out both ionization and phonon pulses from scatters within the crystals; channel segmentation and analysis of pulse timing parameters allowed e ective ducialization of the crystal volumes and background rejection su cient to set world-leading limits at the times of their publications. A full re-analysis of the CDMS-II data was motivated by an improvement in the event reconstruction algorithms which improved the resolution of ionization energy and timing information. The Ge data were re-analyzed using three distinct background-rejection techniques; the Si data from runs 125 - 128 were analyzed for the rst time using the most successful of the techniques from the Ge re-analysis. The results of these analyses prompted a novel \\mid-threshold" analysis, wherein energy thresholds were lowered but background rejection using phonon timing information was still maintained. This technique proved to have signi cant discrimination power, maintaining adequate signal acceptance and minimizing background leakage. The primary background for CDMS-II analyses comes from surface events, whose poor ionization collection make them di cult to distinguish from true nuclear recoil events. The novel detector technology of SuperCDMS, the successor to CDMS-II, uses interleaved electrodes to achieve full ionization collection for events occurring at the top and bottom detector surfaces. This, along with dual-sided ionization and phonon instrumentation, allows for excellent ducialization and relegates the surface-event rejection techniques of CDMS-II to a secondary level of background discrimination. Current and future SuperCDMS results hold great promise for mid- to low

  2. Biomaterials surface science

    CERN Document Server

    Taubert, Andreas; Rodriguez-Cabello, José Carlos

    2013-01-01

    The book provides an overview of the highly interdisciplinary field of surface science in the context of biological and biomedical applications. The covered topics range from micro- and nanostructuring for imparting functionality in a top-down manner to the bottom-up fabrication of gradient surfaces by self-assembly, from interfaces between biomaterials and living matter to smart, stimuli-responsive surfaces, and from cell and surface mechanics to the elucidation of cell-chip interactions in biomedical devices.

  3. Surface and Interface Characterisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2006-01-01

    Surface physical analysis, i.e. topography characterisation, encompasses measurement, visualisation, and quantification. This is critical for both component form and for surface finish at macro-, micro- and nano-scales. The principal methods of surface topography measurement are stylus profilometry...

  4. Modeling conoid surfaces

    OpenAIRE

    Velimirović Ljubica S.; Stanković Mića S.; Radivojević Grozdana

    2002-01-01

    In tins paper we consider conoid surfaces as frequently used surfaces in building techniques, mainly as daring roof structures. Different types of conoids are presented using the programme package Mathematica. We describe the generation of conoids and by means of parametric representation we get their graphics. The geometric approach offers a wide range of possibilities in the research of complicated spatial surface systems.

  5. Surface optical vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembessis, V. E.; Babiker, M.; Andrews, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    It is shown how the total internal reflection of orbital-angular-momentum-endowed light can lead to the generation of evanescent light possessing rotational properties in which the intensity distribution is firmly localized in the vicinity of the surface. The characteristics of these surface optical vortices depend on the form of the incident light and on the dielectric mismatch of the two media. The interference of surface optical vortices is shown to give rise to interesting phenomena, including pattern rotation akin to a surface optical Ferris wheel. Applications are envisaged to be in atom lithography, optical surface tweezers, and spanners.

  6. Surface cleanliness measurement procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroder, Mark Stewart; Woodmansee, Donald Ernest; Beadie, Douglas Frank

    2002-01-01

    A procedure and tools for quantifying surface cleanliness are described. Cleanliness of a target surface is quantified by wiping a prescribed area of the surface with a flexible, bright white cloth swatch, preferably mounted on a special tool. The cloth picks up a substantial amount of any particulate surface contamination. The amount of contamination is determined by measuring the reflectivity loss of the cloth before and after wiping on the contaminated system and comparing that loss to a previous calibration with similar contamination. In the alternative, a visual comparison of the contaminated cloth to a contamination key provides an indication of the surface cleanliness.

  7. Surface for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Rathbone, Andy

    2014-01-01

    Make Microsoft's Surface work-and play-just the way you want it to Microsoft's Surface tablet has the features and personality you're looking for, with a robust environment for business computing that doesn't skimp on fun. Surface for Dummies, 2nd Edition explains how Windows 8.1 Pro and Windows RT differ, and helps you decide which Surface model is best for you. Step by step, this book walks you through both the hardware and software features of the Surface, including the touch cover and type cover, Windows RT and Windows 8.1 Pro operating systems, and the coveted Office Home & Student 2013 s

  8. On rationally supported surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens; Juttler, B.; Sir, Z.

    2008-01-01

    We analyze the class of surfaces which are equipped with rational support functions. Any rational support function can be decomposed into a symmetric (even) and an antisymmetric (odd) part. We analyze certain geometric properties of surfaces with odd and even rational support functions....... In particular it is shown that odd rational support functions correspond to those rational surfaces which can be equipped with a linear field of normal vectors, which were discussed by Sampoli et al. (Sampoli, M.L., Peternell, M., Juttler, B., 2006. Rational surfaces with linear normals and their convolutions...... with rational surfaces. Comput. Aided Geom. Design 23, 179-192). As shown recently, this class of surfaces includes non-developable quadratic triangular Bezier surface patches (Lavicka, M., Bastl, B., 2007. Rational hypersurfaces with rational convolutions. Comput. Aided Geom. Design 24, 410426; Peternell, M...

  9. Estimating daily surface NO2 concentrations from satellite data - a case study over Hong Kong using land use regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jasdeep S.; Monks, Paul S.

    2017-07-01

    Land use regression (LUR) models have been used in epidemiology to determine the fine-scale spatial variation in air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in cities and larger regions. However, they are often limited in their temporal resolution, which may potentially be rectified by employing the synoptic coverage provided by satellite measurements. In this work a mixed-effects LUR model is developed to model daily surface NO2 concentrations over the Hong Kong SAR during the period 2005-2015. In situ measurements from the Hong Kong Air Quality Monitoring Network, along with tropospheric vertical column density (VCD) data from the OMI, GOME-2A, and SCIAMACHY satellite instruments were combined with fine-scale land use parameters to provide the spatiotemporal information necessary to predict daily surface concentrations. Cross-validation with the in situ data shows that the mixed-effects LUR model using OMI data has a high predictive power (adj. R2 = 0. 84), especially when compared with surface concentrations derived using the MACC-II reanalysis model dataset (adj. R2 = 0. 11). Time series analysis shows no statistically significant trend in NO2 concentrations during 2005-2015, despite a reported decline in NOx emissions. This study demonstrates the utility in combining satellite data with LUR models to derive daily maps of ambient surface NO2 for use in exposure studies.

  10. Improving operational land surface model canopy evapotranspiration in Africa using a direct remote sensing approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, P.; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Boucher, M.; Cappelaere, B.; de Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Nouvellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

    2013-03-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled evapotranspiration (ET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a remote sensing model of transpiration (the primary component of ET), driven by a time series of vegetation indices, was used to substitute transpiration from the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrology Research Laboratory at National Weather Service Land Surface Model (GNOAH) to improve total ET model estimates for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against GNOAH ET and the remote sensing method using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance were at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites was poor, but better than the models before hybridization. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a simple canopy scheme that depends primarily on low bias surface climate reanalysis data and is driven primarily by a time series of vegetation indices.

  11. Role of west Asian surface pressure in summer monsoon onset over central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Arindam; Agrawal, Shubhi

    2017-07-01

    Using rain-gauge measurements and reanalysis data sets for 1948-2015, we propose a mechanism that controls the interannual variation of summer monsoon onset over central India. In May, about a month before the onset, the low level jet over the Arabian Sea is about 40% stronger and about 2.5 degrees northward during years of early onset as compared to years of late onset. A stronger and northward shifted low level jet carries about 50% more moisture in early onset years, which increases low level moist static energy over central India in the pre-monsoon season. The increase in low level moist static energy decreases the stability of the atmosphere and makes it conducive for convection. The strength and position of the low level jet are determined by surface pressure gradient between western Asia and the west-equatorial Indian Ocean. Thus, an anomalous surface pressure low over western Asia in the pre-monsoon season increases this gradient and strengthens the jet. Moreover, a stronger low level jet increases the meridional shear of zonal wind and supports the formation of an onset vortex in a stronger baroclinic atmosphere. These developments are favourable for an early onset of the monsoon over the central Indian region. Our study postulates a new physical mechanism for the interannual variation of onset over central India, the core of the Indian monsoon region and relevant to Indian agriculture, and could be tested for real-time prediction.

  12. Improving operational land surface model canopy evapotranspiration in Africa using a direct remote sensing approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Marshall

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled evapotranspiration (ET, a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a remote sensing model of transpiration (the primary component of ET, driven by a time series of vegetation indices, was used to substitute transpiration from the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrology Research Laboratory at National Weather Service Land Surface Model (GNOAH to improve total ET model estimates for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against GNOAH ET and the remote sensing method using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance were at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites was poor, but better than the models before hybridization. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a simple canopy scheme that depends primarily on low bias surface climate reanalysis data and is driven primarily by a time series of vegetation indices.

  13. On the potential application of land surface models for drought monitoring in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Huqiang; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Yaohui; Zhao, Jianhua

    2017-05-01

    The potential of using land surface models (LSMs) to monitor near-real-time drought has not been fully assessed in China yet. In this study, we analyze the performance of such a system with a land surface model (LSM) named the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE). The meteorological forcing datasets based on reanalysis products and corrected by observational data have been extended to near-real time for semi-operational trial. CABLE-simulated soil moisture (SM) anomalies are used to characterize drought spatial and temporal evolutions. One outstanding feature in our analysis is that with the same meteorological data, we have calculated a range of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We have assessed the similarity among these indices against observed SM over a number of regions in China. While precipitation is the dominant factor in the drought development, relationships between precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture anomalies vary significantly under different climate regimes, resulting in different characteristics of droughts in China. The LSM-based trial system is further evaluated for the 1997/1998 drought in northern China and 2009/2010 drought in southwestern China. The system can capture the severities and temporal and spatial evolutions of these drought events well. The advantage of using a LSM-based drought monitoring system is further demonstrated by its potential to monitor other consequences of drought impacts in a more physically consistent manner.

  14. DNA ELECTROPHORESIS AT SURFACES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RAFAILOVICH, MIRIAM; SOKOLOV, JONATHAN; GERSAPPE, DILIP

    2003-09-01

    During this year we performed two major projects: I. We developed a detailed theoretical model which complements our experiments on surface DNA electrophoresis. We found that it was possible to enhance the separation of DNA chains by imposing a chemical nanoscale pattern on the surface. This approach utilized the surface interaction effect of the DNA chains with the substrate and is a refinement to our previous method in which DNA chains were separated on homogeneous flat surfaces. By introducing the nano-patterns on the surface, the conformational changes of DNA chains of different lengths can be amplified, which results in the different friction strengths with the substrate surface. Our results also show that, when compared to the DNA electrophoresis performed on homogeneous flat surfaces, nanopatterned surfaces offer a larger window in choosing different surface interactions to achieve separation. II. In collaboration with a large international manufacturer of skin care products we also embarked on a project involving photo toxicity of titanium dioxide nanoparticles, which are a key ingredient in sunscreen and cosmetic lotions. The results clearly implicated the nanoparticles in catalyzing damage to chromosomal DNA. We then used this knowledge to develop a polymer/anti-oxidant coating which prevented the photocatalytic reaction on DNA while still retaining the UV absorptive properties of the nanoparticles. The standard gel electrophoresis was not sufficient in determining the extent of the DNA damage. The conclusions of this study were based predominantly on analysis obtained with the surface electrophoresis method.

  15. Mirror reactor surface study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, A. L.; Damm, C. C.; Futch, A. H.; Hiskes, J. R.; Meisenheimer, R. G.; Moir, R. W.; Simonen, T. C.; Stallard, B. W.; Taylor, C. E.

    1976-09-01

    A general survey is presented of surface-related phenomena associated with the following mirror reactor elements: plasma first wall, ion sources, neutral beams, director converters, vacuum systems, and plasma diagnostics. A discussion of surface phenomena in possible abnormal reactor operation is included. Several studies which appear to merit immediate attention and which are essential to the development of mirror reactors are abstracted from the list of recommended areas for surface work. The appendix contains a discussion of the fundamentals of particle/surface interactions. The interactions surveyed are backscattering, thermal desorption, sputtering, diffusion, particle ranges in solids, and surface spectroscopic methods. A bibliography lists references in a number of categories pertinent to mirror reactors. Several complete published and unpublished reports on surface aspects of current mirror plasma experiments and reactor developments are also included.

  16. Laser-surface interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ganeev, Rashid A

    2014-01-01

    This book is about the interaction of laser radiation with various surfaces at variable parameters of radiation. As a basic principle of classification we chose the energetic or intensity level of interaction of laser radiation with the surfaces. These two characteristics of laser radiation are the most important parameters defining entire spectrum of the processes occurring on the surfaces during interaction with electromagnetic waves. This is a first book containing a whole spectrum of the laser-surface interactions distinguished by the ranges of used laser intensity. It combines the surface response starting from extremely weak laser intensities (~1 W cm-2) up to the relativistic intensities (~1020 W cm-2 and higher). The book provides the basic information about lasers and acquaints the reader with both common applications of laser-surface interactions (laser-related printers, scanners, barcode readers, discs, material processing, military, holography, medicine, etc) and unusual uses of the processes on t...

  17. Mirror reactor surface study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, A.L.; Damm, C.C.; Futch, A.H.; Hiskes, J.R.; Meisenheimer, R.G.; Moir, R.W.; Simonen, T.C.; Stallard, B.W.; Taylor, C.E.

    1976-01-01

    A general survey is presented of surface-related phenomena associated with the following mirror reactor elements: plasma first wall, ion sources, neutral beams, director converters, vacuum systems, and plasma diagnostics. A discussion of surface phenomena in possible abnormal reactor operation is included. Several studies which appear to merit immediate attention and which are essential to the development of mirror reactors are abstracted from the list of recommended areas for surface work. The appendix contains a discussion of the fundamentals of particle/surface interactions. The interactions surveyed are backscattering, thermal desorption, sputtering, diffusion, particle ranges in solids, and surface spectroscopic methods. A bibliography lists references in a number of categories pertinent to mirror reactors. Several complete published and unpublished reports on surface aspects of current mirror plasma experiments and reactor developments are also included

  18. Electrostatics of patchy surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adar, Ram M; Andelman, David; Diamant, Haim

    2017-09-01

    In the study of colloidal, biological and electrochemical systems, it is customary to treat surfaces, macromolecules and electrodes as homogeneously charged. This simplified approach is proven successful in most cases, but fails to describe a wide range of heterogeneously charged surfaces commonly used in experiments. For example, recent experiments have revealed a long-range attraction between overall neutral surfaces, locally charged in a mosaic-like structure of positively and negatively charged domains ("patches"). Here, we review experimental and theoretical studies addressing the stability of heterogeneously charged surfaces, their effect on ionic profiles in solution, and the interaction between two such surfaces. We focus on electrostatics, and highlight the important new physical parameters appearing in the heterogeneous case, such as the largest patch size and inter-surface charge correlations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Hydrodynamic Vortex on Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragazzo, Clodoaldo Grotta; de Barros Viglioni, Humberto Henrique

    2017-10-01

    The equations of motion for a system of point vortices on an oriented Riemannian surface of finite topological type are presented. The equations are obtained from a Green's function on the surface. The uniqueness of the Green's function is established under hydrodynamic conditions at the surface's boundaries and ends. The hydrodynamic force on a point vortex is computed using a new weak formulation of Euler's equation adapted to the point vortex context. An analogy between the hydrodynamic force on a massive point vortex and the electromagnetic force on a massive electric charge is presented as well as the equations of motion for massive vortices. Any noncompact Riemann surface admits a unique Riemannian metric such that a single vortex in the surface does not move ("Steady Vortex Metric"). Some examples of surfaces with steady vortex metric isometrically embedded in R^3 are presented.

  20. Ruled Laguerre minimal surfaces

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-10-30

    A Laguerre minimal surface is an immersed surface in ℝ 3 being an extremal of the functional ∫ (H 2/K-1)dA. In the present paper, we prove that the only ruled Laguerre minimal surfaces are up to isometry the surfaces ℝ (φλ) = (Aφ, Bφ, Cφ + D cos 2φ) + λ(sin φ, cos φ, 0), where A,B,C,D ε ℝ are fixed. To achieve invariance under Laguerre transformations, we also derive all Laguerre minimal surfaces that are enveloped by a family of cones. The methodology is based on the isotropic model of Laguerre geometry. In this model a Laguerre minimal surface enveloped by a family of cones corresponds to a graph of a biharmonic function carrying a family of isotropic circles. We classify such functions by showing that the top view of the family of circles is a pencil. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  1. The Impact of Moisture Intrusions from Lower Latitudes on Arctic Net Surface Radiative Fluxes and Sea Ice Growth in Fall and Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegyi, B. M.; Taylor, P. C.

    2017-12-01

    The fall and winter seasons mark an important period in the evolution of Arctic sea ice, where energy is transferred away from the surface to facilitate the cooling of the surface and the growth of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. Climatologically, these seasons are characterized by distinct periods of increased and reduced surface cooling and sea ice growth. Periods of reduced sea ice growth and surface cooling are associated with cloudy conditions and the transport of warm and moist air from lower latitudes, termed moisture intrusions. In the research presented, we explore the regional and Arctic-wide impact of moisture intrusions on the surface net radiative fluxes and sea ice growth for each fall and winter season from 2000/01-2015/16, utilizing MERRA2 reanalysis data, PIOMAS sea ice thickness data, and daily CERES radiative flux data. Consistent with previous studies, we find that positive anomalies in downwelling longwave surface flux are associated with increased temperature and water vapor content in the atmospheric column contained within the moisture intrusions. Interestingly, there are periods of increased downwelling LW flux anomalies that persist for one week or longer (i.e. longer than synoptic timescales) that are associated with persistent poleward flux of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. These persistent anomalies significantly reduce the regional growth of Arctic sea ice, and may in part explain the interannual variability of fall and winter Arctic sea ice growth.

  2. Surface optical vortices

    OpenAIRE

    Lembessis, V. E.; Babiker, M.; Andrews, D L.

    2009-01-01

    It is shown how the total internal reflection of orbital-angular-momentum-endowed light can lead to the generation of evanescent light possessing rotational properties in which the intensity distribution is firmly localized in the vicinity of the surface. The characteristics of these surface optical vortices depend on the form of the incident light and on the dielectric mismatch of the two media. The interference of surface optical vortices is shown to give rise to interesting phenomena, incl...

  3. Encyclopedia of analytical surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Krivoshapko, S N

    2015-01-01

    This encyclopedia presents an all-embracing collection of analytical surface classes. It provides concise definitions  and description for more than 500 surfaces and categorizes them in 38 classes of analytical surfaces. All classes are cross references to the original literature in an excellent bibliography. The encyclopedia is of particular interest to structural and civil engineers and serves as valuable reference for mathematicians.

  4. Surface science and catalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somorjai, G.A.

    1985-02-01

    Modern surface science studies have explored a large number of metal catalyst systems. Three classes of catalytic reactions can be identified: (1) those that occur over the metal surface; (2) reactions that take place on top of a strongly adsorbed overlayer and (3) reactions that occur on co-adsorbate modified surfaces. Case histories for each class are presented. 44 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Water at surfaces with tunable surface chemistries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Stephanie E.; Vanselous, Heather; Petersen, Poul B.

    2018-03-01

    Aqueous interfaces are ubiquitous in natural environments, spanning atmospheric, geological, oceanographic, and biological systems, as well as in technical applications, such as fuel cells and membrane filtration. Where liquid water terminates at a surface, an interfacial region is formed, which exhibits distinct properties from the bulk aqueous phase. The unique properties of water are governed by the hydrogen-bonded network. The chemical and physical properties of the surface dictate the boundary conditions of the bulk hydrogen-bonded network and thus the interfacial properties of the water and any molecules in that region. Understanding the properties of interfacial water requires systematically characterizing the structure and dynamics of interfacial water as a function of the surface chemistry. In this review, we focus on the use of experimental surface-specific spectroscopic methods to understand the properties of interfacial water as a function of surface chemistry. Investigations of the air-water interface, as well as efforts in tuning the properties of the air-water interface by adding solutes or surfactants, are briefly discussed. Buried aqueous interfaces can be accessed with careful selection of spectroscopic technique and sample configuration, further expanding the range of chemical environments that can be probed, including solid inorganic materials, polymers, and water immiscible liquids. Solid substrates can be finely tuned by functionalization with self-assembled monolayers, polymers, or biomolecules. These variables provide a platform for systematically tuning the chemical nature of the interface and examining the resulting water structure. Finally, time-resolved methods to probe the dynamics of interfacial water are briefly summarized before discussing the current status and future directions in studying the structure and dynamics of interfacial water.

  6. Super Riemann surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabin, J.M.

    1986-10-01

    A mathematically rigorous notion of supermanifold is presented and used to develop the theory of super Riemann surfaces. Super Riemann surfaces describe superconformal equivalence classes of supergravity geometries in two dimensions and therefore provide a powerful formalism for studying fermionic string theory. They also provide a convenient description of spin structures and half-forms on ordinary Riemann surfaces. I prove the uniformization theorem for super Riemann surfaces, determine the dimension and global structure of super Teichmueller space, and show that the super modular group is isomorphic to the ordinary modular (mapping class) group. Quasisuperconformal mappings and the super Beltrami equations are briefly discussed. 32 refs

  7. Surface science an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Hudson, John

    1991-01-01

    The whole field of surface science is covered in this work. Starting with a description of the structure and thermodynamics of clean surfaces, the book goes on to discuss kinetic theory of gases and molecular beam formation. This is followed by a largesection on gas-surface interactions, and another major section on energetic particle-surface interactions. The final chapter provides the background to crystal nucleation and growth. The approach adopted is interdisciplinary and slanted towards theexperimental side, with practical analytical techniques being used to illustrate general princi

  8. Surface chemistry essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Birdi, K S

    2013-01-01

    Surface chemistry plays an important role in everyday life, as the basis for many phenomena as well as technological applications. Common examples range from soap bubbles, foam, and raindrops to cosmetics, paint, adhesives, and pharmaceuticals. Additional areas that rely on surface chemistry include modern nanotechnology, medical diagnostics, and drug delivery. There is extensive literature on this subject, but most chemistry books only devote one or two chapters to it. Surface Chemistry Essentials fills a need for a reference that brings together the fundamental aspects of surface chemistry w

  9. Anodized dental implant surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Kumar Mishra

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Anodized implants with moderately rough surface were introduced around 2000. Whether these implants enhanced biologic effect to improve the environment for better osseointegration was unclear. The purpose of this article was to review the literature available on anodized surface in terms of their clinical success rate and bone response in patients till now. Materials and Methods: A broad electronic search of MEDLINE and PubMed databases was performed. A focus was made on peer-reviewed dental journals. Only articles related to anodized implants were included. Both animal and human studies were included. Results: The initial search of articles resulted in 581 articles on anodized implants. The initial screening of titles and abstracts resulted in 112 full-text papers; 40 animal studies, 16 studies on cell adhesion and bacterial adhesion onto anodized surfaced implants, and 47 human studies were included. Nine studies, which do not fulfill the inclusion criteria, were excluded. Conclusions: The long-term studies on anodized surface implants do favor the surface, but in most of the studies, anodized surface is compared with that of machined surface, but not with other surfaces commercially available. Anodized surface in terms of clinical success rate in cases of compromised bone and immediately extracted sockets has shown favorable success.

  10. Efficacy, tolerability, and safety of an oral enzyme combination vs diclofenac in osteoarthritis of the knee: results of an individual patient-level pooled reanalysis of data from six randomized controlled trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ueberall MA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Michael A Ueberall,1 Gerhard HH Mueller-Schwefe,2 Rainer Wigand,3 Ute Essner4 1Institute of Neurological Sciences, Nuremberg, 2Interdisciplinary Center for Pain and Palliative Care Medicine, Göppingen, 3Interdisciplinary Center for Rheumatology and Immunology, Frankfurt, 4O.Meany Consultancy, Hamburg, Germany Objective: To compare efficacy, safety, and tolerability of an oral enzyme combination (OEC containing proteolytic enzymes and bioflavonoid vs diclofenac (DIC, a nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug in the treatment of osteoarthritis of the knee.Materials and methods: This was an individual patient-level pooled reanalysis of patient-reported data from prospective, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group studies in adult patients with moderate-to-severe osteoarthritis of the knee treated for at least 3 weeks with OEC or DIC. Appropriate trials were identified with a systemic literature and database search. Data were extracted from the original case-report forms and reanalyzed by a blinded evaluation committee. The primary end point was the improvement of the Lequesne algofunctional index (LAFI score at study end vs baseline. Secondary end points addressed LAFI response rates, treatment-related pain-intensity changes, adverse events, and laboratory parameters.Results: Six trials were identified that enrolled in total 774 patients, of whom 759 had postbaseline data for safety analysis, 697 (n=348/349 with OEC/DIC for intent to treat, 524 for per protocol efficacy analysis, and 500 for laboratory evaluation. LAFI scores – the primary efficacy end point – decreased comparably with both treatments and improved with both ­treatments significantly vs baseline (OEC 12.6±2.4 to 9.1±3.9, DIC 12.7±2.4 to 9.1±4.2, effect size 0.9/0.88; P<0.001 for each. In parallel, movement-related 11-point numeric rating-scale pain intensity improved significantly (P<0.001 and comparably with both treatments from baseline (6.4±1.9/6.6±1.8 to

  11. Stiction in surface micromachining

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tas, Niels Roelof; Sonnenberg, A.H.; Jansen, Henricus V.; Legtenberg, R.; Legtenberg, Rob; Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

    1996-01-01

    Due to the smoothness of the surfaces in surface micromachining, large adhesion forces between fabricated structures and the substrate are encountered. Four major adhesion mechanisms have been analysed: capillary forces, hydrogen bridging, electrostatic forces and van der Waals forces. Once contact

  12. Biocompatible implant surface treatments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bikash Pattanaik

    2012-01-01

    Limitation of this study is that we tried to give a broader overview related to implant surface treatments. It does not give any conclusion regarding the best biocompatible implant surface treatment investigated till date. Unfortunately, the eventually selected studies were too heterogeneous for inference of data.

  13. Solar absorption surface panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santala, Teuvo J.

    1978-01-01

    A composite metal of aluminum and nickel is used to form an economical solar absorption surface for a collector plate wherein an intermetallic compound of the aluminum and nickel provides a surface morphology with high absorptance and relatively low infrared emittance along with good durability.

  14. Response Surface Methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, Jack P.C.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: This chapter first summarizes Response Surface Methodology (RSM), which started with Box and Wilson’s article in 1951 on RSM for real, non-simulated systems. RSM is a stepwise heuristic that uses first-order polynomials to approximate the response surface locally. An estimated polynomial

  15. Response surface methodolgy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Fu, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter first summarizes Response Surface Methodology (RSM), which started with Box and Wilson’s 1951 article on RSM for real, non-simulated systems. RSM is a stepwise heuristic that uses first-order polynomials to approximate the response surface locally. An estimated polynomial metamodel

  16. Surface tritium contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sienkiewicz, C.J.

    1986-01-01

    Glovebox wipe surveys were conducted to correlate surface tritium contamination with atmospheric tritium levels. Surface contamination was examined as a function of tritium concentration and limited to the HT/T 2 form. The previously predicted relationship between atmospheric HTO concentration and cleanup times was examined in order to predict a model for atmospheric detritiation of stainless steel enclosures. 2 figures, 2 tables

  17. Sperm Surface Proteomics 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brewis, I.A.; Gadella, B.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/115389873

    2017-01-01

    This contribution will focus exclusively on the total (global) protein composition (the proteome) of the sperm surface. Immune responses directed towards sperm surface proteins may cause infertility since functionally intact sperm are under immune attack. The immune attack can be achieved directly

  18. Pseudospherical surfaces with singularities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David

    2017-01-01

    We study a generalization of constant Gauss curvature −1 surfaces in Euclidean 3-space, based on Lorentzian harmonic maps, that we call pseudospherical frontals. We analyse the singularities of these surfaces, dividing them into those of characteristic and non-characteristic type. We give methods...

  19. Surface Loving and Surface Avoiding modes

    OpenAIRE

    Combe, Nicolas; Huntzinger, Jean Roch; Morillo, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    International audience; We theoretically study the propagation of sound waves in GaAs/AlAs superlattices focussing on periodic modes in the vicinity of the band gaps. Based on analytical and numerical calculations, we show that these modes are the product of a quickly oscillating function times a slowly varying envelope function. We carefully study the phase of the envelope function compared to the surface of a semi-infinite superlattice. Especially, the dephasing of the superlattice compared...

  20. The 30-60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May-September

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Jiangyu; Wang, Ming

    2018-05-01

    This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer (May-September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

  1. Workbench surface editor of brain cortical surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, Douglas E.; Nowinski, Wieslaw L.; Serra, Luis

    1996-04-01

    We have developed a 3D reach-in tool to manually reconstruct 3D cortical surface patches from 2D brain atlas images. The first application of our cortex editor is building 3D functional maps, specifically Brodmann's areas. This tool may also be useful in clinical practice to adjust incorrectly mapped atlas regions due to the deforming effect of lesions. The cortex editor allows a domain expert to control the correlation of control points across slices. Correct correlation has been difficult for 3D reconstruction algorithms because the atlas slices are far apart and because of the complex topology of the cortex which differs so much from slice to slice. Also, higher precision of the resulting surfaces is demanded since these define 3D brain atlas features upon which future stereotactic surgery may be based. The cortex editor described in this paper provides a tool suitable for a domain expert to use in defining the 3D surface of a Brodmann's area.

  2. Surface preparation of niobium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kneisel, P.

    1980-01-01

    Any discussion of surface preparation for superconducting rf-surfaces is certainly connected with the question what is the best recipe for achieving high Q-values and high break-down fields. Since the break-down in a cavity is not understood so far and because several mechanisms play a role, it also is not possible to give one recipe which always works. Nevertheless in the past certain preparation techniques for niobium surfaces have been developed and certain rules for preparation can be applied. In the following the to-days state of the art will be described and it is attempted to give a short description of the surface in conjunction with the methods of surface treatments, which generally can be applied to niobium cavities. (orig./WTR)

  3. Surface enhanced Raman scattering

    CERN Document Server

    Furtak, Thomas

    1982-01-01

    In the course of the development of surface science, advances have been identified with the introduction of new diagnostic probes for analytical characterization of the adsorbates and microscopic structure of surfaces and interfaces. Among the most recently de­ veloped techniques, and one around which a storm of controversy has developed, is what has now been earmarked as surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS). Within this phenomenon, molecules adsorbed onto metal surfaces under certain conditions exhibit an anomalously large interaction cross section for the Raman effect. This makes it possible to observe the detailed vibrational signature of the adsorbate in the ambient phase with an energy resolution much higher than that which is presently available in electron energy loss spectroscopy and when the surface is in contact with a much larger amount of material than that which can be tolerated in infrared absorption experiments. The ability to perform vibrational spectroscopy under these conditions would l...

  4. Defects at oxide surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Thornton, Geoff

    2015-01-01

    This book presents the basics and characterization of defects at oxide surfaces. It provides a state-of-the-art review of the field, containing information to the various types of surface defects, describes analytical methods to study defects, their chemical activity and the catalytic reactivity of oxides. Numerical simulations of defective structures complete the picture developed. Defects on planar surfaces form the focus of much of the book, although the investigation of powder samples also form an important part. The experimental study of planar surfaces opens the possibility of applying the large armoury of techniques that have been developed over the last half-century to study surfaces in ultra-high vacuum. This enables the acquisition of atomic level data under well-controlled conditions, providing a stringent test of theoretical methods. The latter can then be more reliably applied to systems such as nanoparticles for which accurate methods of characterization of structure and electronic properties ha...

  5. Super Riemann surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogers, Alice

    1990-01-01

    A super Riemann surface is a particular kind of (1,1)-dimensional complex analytic supermanifold. From the point of view of super-manifold theory, super Riemann surfaces are interesting because they furnish the simplest examples of what have become known as non-split supermanifolds, that is, supermanifolds where the odd and even parts are genuinely intertwined, as opposed to split supermanifolds which are essentially the exterior bundles of a vector bundle over a conventional manifold. However undoubtedly the main motivation for the study of super Riemann surfaces has been their relevance to the Polyakov quantisation of the spinning string. Some of the papers on super Riemann surfaces are reviewed. Although recent work has shown all super Riemann surfaces are algebraic, some areas of difficulty remain. (author)

  6. Assessing modeled Greenland surface mass balance in the GISS Model E2 and its sensitivity to surface albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Patrick; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Koenig, Lora S.; Tedesco, Marco; Moustafa, Samiah E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Fischer, Robert P.; Fettweis, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in global sea level change. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) such as the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) have been employed at high spatial resolution with relatively complex physics to simulate ice sheet SMB. Global climate models (GCMs) incorporate less sophisticated physical schemes and provide outputs at a lower spatial resolution, but have the advantage of modeling the interaction between different components of the earth's oceans, climate, and land surface at a global scale. Improving the ability of GCMs to represent ice sheet SMB is important for making predictions of future changes in global sea level. With the ultimate goal of improving SMB simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 GCM, we compare simulated GrIS SMB against the outputs of the MAR model and radar-derived estimates of snow accumulation. In order to reproduce present-day climate variability in the Model E2 simulation, winds are constrained to match the reanalysis datasets used to force MAR at the lateral boundaries. We conduct a preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the simulated Model E2 SMB to surface albedo, a parameter that is known to strongly influence SMB. Model E2 albedo is set to a fixed value of 0.8 over the entire ice sheet in the initial configuration of the model (control case). We adjust this fixed value in an ensemble of simulations over a range of 0.4 to 0.8 (roughly the range of observed summer GrIS albedo values) to examine the sensitivity of ice-sheet-wide SMB to albedo. We prescribe albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A3 v6 to examine the impact of a more realistic spatial and temporal variations in albedo. An age-dependent snow albedo parameterization is applied, and its impact on SMB relative to observations and the RCM is assessed.

  7. Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

    2017-12-01

    We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

  8. Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

  9. Analysis of remotely sensed and surface data of aerosols and meteorology for the Mexico Megalopolis Area between 2003 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Marco; Braun, Rachel A.; Shingler, Taylor; Sorooshian, Armin

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an aerosol characterization study from 2003 to 2015 for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using remotely sensed aerosol data, ground-based measurements, air mass trajectory modeling, aerosol chemical composition modeling, and reanalysis data for the broader Megalopolis of Central Mexico region. The most extensive biomass burning emissions occur between March and May concurrent with the highest aerosol optical depth, ultraviolet aerosol index, and surface particulate matter (PM) mass concentration values. A notable enhancement in coarse PM levels is observed during vehicular rush hour periods on weekdays versus weekends owing to nonengine-related emissions such as resuspended dust. Among wet deposition species measured, PM2.5, PM10, and PMcoarse (PM10−PM2.5) were best correlated with NH4+, SO42−, and Ca2+, suggesting that the latter three constituents are important components of the aerosol seeding raindrops that eventually deposit to the surface in the study region. Reductions in surface PM mass concentrations were observed in 2014–2015 owing to reduced regional biomass burning as compared to 2003–2013. PMID:28955600

  10. Analysis of remotely sensed and surface data of aerosols and meteorology for the Mexico Megalopolis Area between 2003 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Marco; Braun, Rachel A; Shingler, Taylor; Sorooshian, Armin

    2017-08-27

    This paper presents an aerosol characterization study from 2003 to 2015 for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area using remotely sensed aerosol data, ground-based measurements, air mass trajectory modeling, aerosol chemical composition modeling, and reanalysis data for the broader Megalopolis of Central Mexico region. The most extensive biomass burning emissions occur between March and May concurrent with the highest aerosol optical depth, ultraviolet aerosol index, and surface particulate matter (PM) mass concentration values. A notable enhancement in coarse PM levels is observed during vehicular rush hour periods on weekdays versus weekends owing to nonengine-related emissions such as resuspended dust. Among wet deposition species measured, PM 2.5 , PM 10 , and PM coarse (PM 10 -PM 2.5 ) were best correlated with NH 4 + , SO 4 2- , and Ca 2+ , suggesting that the latter three constituents are important components of the aerosol seeding raindrops that eventually deposit to the surface in the study region. Reductions in surface PM mass concentrations were observed in 2014-2015 owing to reduced regional biomass burning as compared to 2003-2013.

  11. Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

    2017-07-01

    Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

  12. A Smart Climatology of Evaporation Duct Height and Surface Radar Propagation in the Indian Ocean

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Twigg, Katherine L

    2007-01-01

    .... We have used existing, civilian, dynamically balanced reanalysis data, for 1970 to 2006, and a state-of-the-art ED model, to produce a spatially and temporally refined EDH climatology for the Indian Ocean (10) and nearby seas...

  13. Plasma-surface interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeckner, M J; Nelson, C T; Sant, S P; Jindal, A K; Joseph, E A; Zhou, B S; Padron-Wells, G; Jarvis, B; Pierce, R; Overzet, L J

    2008-01-01

    Materials processing is at a crossroads. Currently a large fraction of industrially viable materials processing is via plasmas. Until recently it has been economical to just examine the influence the plasma properties on the desired surface processes and through this ultimately optimize manufacturing. For example, it is well known that the surface processes (etch or deposition), occur in the top few mono-layers of the surface. Thus, in film growth one requires that molecules from the gas-phase land and bond on the surface. However as processing has reached the nano-scale, development of viable processes has become more and more difficult. In part, this is because of all of the free parameters that exist in plasmas. To overcome this economic issue, tool vendors and semiconductor companies have turned to complex computational models of processing plasmas. For those models to work, one requires a through understanding of all of the gas-phase and surface-phase processes that are exhibited in plasmas. Unfortunately, these processes, particularly those at the surface, are not well understood. In this article we describe a viable model of the surface-phase based on cross sections for processes that occur. While originally developed of fluorocarbon systems, the model also appears to be applicable to hydrocarbon systems.

  14. Electrokinetics on superhydrophobic surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papadopoulos, Periklis; Deng Xu; Vollmer, Doris; Butt, Hans-Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    On a superhydrophobic surface a liquid is exposed to a large air-water interface. The reduced wall friction is expected to cause a higher electro-osmotic mobility. On the other hand, the low charge density of a superhydrophobic surface reduces the electro-osmotic mobility. Due to a lack of experimental data it has not been clear so far whether the reduced wall friction or the reduced charge density dominate the electrokinetic mobilities. To separate the relative contributions of electrophoresis and electro-osmosis, the mobilities of colloids on a negatively charged hydrophilic, a superhydrophobic (Cassie) and a partially hydrophilized superhydrophobic (Cassie composite) coating were measured. To vary the charge density as well as its sign with respect to those of the colloids the partially hydrophilized surfaces were coated with polyelectrolytes. We analyzed the electrokinetic mobilities of negatively charged polystyrene colloids dispersed in aqueous medium on porous hydrophilic and superhydrophobic surfaces by confocal laser scanning electron microscopy. In all cases, the external electric field was parallel to the surface. The total electrokinetic mobilities on the superhydrophobic (Cassie) and negatively charged partially hydrophilized (Cassie composite) surfaces were similar, showing that electro-osmosis is small compared to electrophoresis. The positively charged Cassie composite surfaces tend to ‘trap’ the colloids due to attracting electrostatic interactions and rough morphology, reducing the mobility. Thus, either the charge density of the coatings in the Cassie composite state or its slip length is too low to enhance electro-osmosis.

  15. Dynamics at Surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylvia Ceyer, Nancy Ryan Gray

    2010-05-04

    The 2009 Gordon Conference on Dynamics at Surfaces is the 30th anniversary of a meeting held every two years that is attended by leading researchers in the area of experimental and theoretical dynamics at liquid and solid surfaces. The conference focuses on the dynamics of the interaction of molecules with either liquid or solid surfaces, the dynamics of the outermost layer of liquid and solid surfaces and the dynamics at the liquid-solid interface. Specific topics that are featured include state-to-state dynamics, non-adiabatic interactions in molecule-metal systems, photon induced desorption from semiconductor and metal surfaces, ultrafast x-ray and electron diffraction as probes of the dynamics of ablation, ultrafast vibrational spectroscopy of water surface dynamics, dynamics of a single adsorbate, growth at nano-scale mineral surfaces, dynamics of atom recombination on interstellar dust grains and the dynamics of the interaction of water with lipid bilayers. The conference brings together investigators from a variety of scientific disciplines including chemistry, physics, materials science, geology and biophysics.

  16. A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

    2017-11-01

    Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

  17. Progressive Response Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, V. J.; Swiler, L. P.

    2004-01-01

    Response surface functions are often used as simple and inexpensive replacements for computationally expensive computer models that simulate the behavior of a complex system over some parameter space. Progressive response surfaces are ones that are built up progressively as global information is added from new sample points in the parameter space. As the response surfaces are globally upgraded based on new information, heuristic indications of the convergence of the response surface approximation to the exact (fitted) function can be inferred. Sampling points can be incrementally added in a structured fashion, or in an unstructured fashion. Whatever the approach, at least in early stages of sampling it is usually desirable to sample the entire parameter space uniformly. At later stages of sampling, depending on the nature of the quantity being resolved, it may be desirable to continue sampling uniformly over the entire parameter space (Progressive response surfaces), or to switch to a focusing/economizing strategy of preferentially sampling certain regions of the parameter space based on information gained in early stages of sampling (Adaptive response surfaces). Here we consider Progressive response surfaces where a balanced indication of global response over the parameter space is desired.We use a variant of Moving Least Squares to fit and interpolate structured and unstructured point sets over the parameter space. On a 2-D test problem we compare response surface accuracy for three incremental sampling methods: Progressive Lattice Sampling; Simple-Random Monte Carlo; and Halton Quasi-Monte-Carlo sequences. We are ultimately after a system for constructing efficiently upgradable response surface approximations with reliable error estimates.

  18. Surface physics : experimental

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padalia, B.D.

    1978-01-01

    In this report, discussion is confined to some important ultra high vacuum surface techniques such as ultra-violet photoelectron spectroscopy (UPS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) and the low energy electron diffraction (LEED). An attempt is made to cover the basic principles and the experimental details of XPS and AES. Selected examples illustrating the potentialities of the above techniques to solve the important basic as well as applied problems relating to surfaces are presented. Salient features of the available commercial machines in which UPS, AES and LEED are combined to facilitate surface examination sequentially or simultaneously under identical experimental conditions are indicated. (auth.)

  19. Advanced Surface Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Per; Nielsen, Lars Pleht

    , nitriding, carbonitriding, and many other lesser-known thermochemical processes used for solving technological problems. The book is richly illustrated with pictures and figures showing how the technology creates new innovative solutions for industry and how surfaces are becoming integral to the function......This new significant book on advanced modern surface technology in all its variations, is aimed at both teaching at engineering schools and practical application in industry. The work covers all the significant aspects of modern surface technology and also describes how new advanced techniques make...

  20. Surface modes in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Sernelius, Bo E

    2011-01-01

    Electromagnetic surface modes are present at all surfaces and interfaces between material of different dielectric properties. These modes have very important effects on numerous physical quantities: adhesion, capillary force, step formation and crystal growth, the Casimir effect etc. They cause surface tension and wetting and they give rise to forces which are important e.g. for the stability of colloids.This book is a useful and elegant approach to the topic, showing how the concept of electromagnetic modes can be developed as a unifying theme for a range of condensed matter physics. The

  1. Surface science techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Walls, JM

    2013-01-01

    This volume provides a comprehensive and up to the minute review of the techniques used to determine the nature and composition of surfaces. Originally published as a special issue of the Pergamon journal Vacuum, it comprises a carefully edited collection of chapters written by specialists in each of the techniques and includes coverage of the electron and ion spectroscopies, as well as the atom-imaging methods such as the atom probe field ion microscope and the scanning tunnelling microscope. Surface science is an important area of study since the outermost surface layers play a crucial role

  2. Architectural Knitted Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mossé, Aurélie

    2010-01-01

    WGSN reports from the Architectural Knitted Surfaces workshop recently held at ShenkarCollege of Engineering and Design, Tel Aviv, which offered a cutting-edge insight into interactive knitted surfaces. With the increasing role of smart textiles in architecture, the Architectural Knitted Surfaces...... workshop brought together architects and interior and textile designers to highlight recent developments in intelligent knitting. The five-day workshop was led by architects Ayelet Karmon and Mette Ramsgaard Thomsen, together with Amir Cang and Eyal Sheffer from the Knitting Laboratory, in collaboration...

  3. Nonlinear surface electromagnetic phenomena

    CERN Document Server

    Ponath, H-E

    1991-01-01

    In recent years the physics of electromagnetic surface phenomena has developed rapidly, evolving into technologies for communications and industry, such as fiber and integrated optics. The variety of phenomena based on electromagnetism at surfaces is rich and this book was written with the aim of summarizing the available knowledge in selected areas of the field. The book contains reviews written by solid state and optical physicists on the nonlinear interaction of electromagnetic waves at and with surfaces and films. Both the physical phenomena and some potential applications are

  4. Localized Acoustic Surface Modes

    KAUST Repository

    Farhat, Mohamed

    2015-08-04

    We introduce the concept of localized acoustic surface modes (ASMs). We demonstrate that they are induced on a two-dimensional cylindrical rigid surface with subwavelength corrugations under excitation by an incident acoustic plane wave. Our results show that the corrugated rigid surface is acoustically equivalent to a cylindrical scatterer with uniform mass density that can be represented using a Drude-like model. This, indeed, suggests that plasmonic-like acoustic materials can be engineered with potential applications in various areas including sensing, imaging, and cloaking.