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Sample records for ncar community climate

  1. Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) version le as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Technical note. [NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, R.E.; Henderson-Sellers, A.; Kennedy, P.J.

    1993-08-01

    A comprehensive model of land-surface processes has been under development suitable for use with various National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Models (GCMs). Special emphasis has been given to describing properly the role of vegetation in modifying the surface moisture and energy budgets. The result of these efforts has been incorporated into a boundary package, referred to as the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The current frozen version, BATS1e is a piece of software about four thousand lines of code that runs as an offline version or coupled to the Community Climate Model (CCM).

  2. An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun

    2017-12-07

    The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations.

  3. An investigation of the Archean climate using the NCAR CCm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.S.

    1991-01-01

    The Archean (2.5 to 3.8 billion years ago) is of interest climatically, because of the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox', which can be characterized by the Sun's reduced energy output. This lower energy output leads to a frozen planet if the climate existed as it does today. But, the geologic record shows that water was flowing at the earth's surface 3.8 billion years ago. Energy Balance Models (EBMs) and one-dimensional radiative-convective (1DRC) models predict a frozen planet for this time period, unless large carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations exist in the Archean atmosphere. The goal is to explore the Archean climate with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Community Climate Model (CCM). The search for negative feedbacks to explain the 'Faint-Young Sun Paradox' is the thrust of this study. This study undertakes a series of sensitivity simulations which first explores individual factors that may be important for the Archean. They include rotation rate, lower solar luminosity, and land fraction. Then, these climatic factors along with higher CO2 concentrations are combined into a set of experiments. A faster rotation rate may have existed in the Archean. The faster rotation rate simulations show warmer globally averaged surface temperatures that are caused by a 20 percent decrease in the total cloud fraction. The smaller cloud fraction is brought about by dynamical changes. A global ocean is a possibility for the Archean. A global ocean simulation predicts 4 K increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to the present-day climate control

  4. Supporting National User Communities at NERSC and NCAR

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    Killeen, Timothy L.; Simon, Horst D.

    2006-05-16

    The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center(NERSC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are twocomputing centers that have traditionally supported large national usercommunities. Both centers have developed responsive approaches to supportthese user communities and their changing needs, providing end-to-endcomputing solutions. In this report we provide a short overview of thestrategies used at our centers in supporting our scientific users, withan emphasis on some examples of effective programs and futureneeds.

  5. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

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    Jablonowski, Christiane [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-12-14

    The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

  6. Impact of Amazon deforestation on climate simulations using the NCAR CCM2/BATS model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Model validation and results are briefly presented for a simulation of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. This initial study is made using assumptions regarding deforestation similar to those in earlier studies with several versions of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) couples to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The model used is a revised version of the NCAR CCM Version 2 coupled to BATS Version 1e. This paper discusses the portion of validation dealing with the distribution of precipitation; the simulation displays very good agreement with observed rainfall rates for the austral summer. Preliminary results from an 8-year simulation of deforestation are similar to that of previous studies. Annual precipitation and evaporation are reduced, while surface air temperatures show a slight increase. A substantial bimodal pattern appears in the results, with the Amazon decrease of precipitation and temperature increase accompanied by changes in the opposite sign to the southeast of the Amazon. Similar patterns have occurred in other studies, but not always in exactly the same locations. Evidently, how much of the region of rainfall increase occurs in the deforested area over the Amazon strongly affects the inferred statistics. It is likely that this pattern depends on the model control climatology and possibly other features. 16 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM).

  8. Simulation of the modern arctic climate by the NCAR CCM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, David H.; Tzeng, Ren-Yow; Parish, Thomas, R.

    1994-01-01

    The National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1's) simulation of the modern arctic climate is evaluated by comparing a five-year seasonal cycle simulation with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The sea level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, vertical cross section of height, 500-hPa height, total energy budget, and moisture budget are analyzed to investigate the biases in the simulated arctic climate. The results show that the model simulates anomalously low SLP, too much storm activity, and anomalously strong baroclinicity to the west of Greenland and vice versa to the east of Greenland. This bias is mainly attributed to the model's topographic representation of Greenland. First, the broadened Greenland topography in the model distorts the path of cyclone waves over the North Atlantic Ocean. Second, the model oversimulates the ridge over Greenland, which intensifies its blocking effect and steers the cyclone waves clockwise around it and hence produces an artificial circum-Greenland trough. These biases are significantly alleviated when the horizontal resolution increases to T42. Over the Arctic basin, the model simulates large amounts of low-level (stratus) clouds in winter and almost no stratus in summer, which is opposite to the observations. This bias is mainly due to the location of the simulated SLP features and the negative anomaly of storm activity, which prevent the transport of moisture into this region during summer but favor this transport in winter. The moisture budget analysis shows that the model's net annual precipitation (P-E) between 70 deg N and the North Pole is 6.6 times larger than the observations and the model transports six times more moisture into this region. The bias in the advection term is attributed to the positive moisture fixer scheme and the distorted flow pattern. However, the excessive moisture transport into the Arctic basin does not solely

  9. Development of hybrid 3-D hydrological modeling for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeng, Xubin [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Troch, Peter [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Pelletier, Jon [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Niu, Guo-Yue [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Gochis, David [NCAR Research Applications (RAL), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-11-15

    This is the Final Report of our four-year (3-year plus one-year no cost extension) collaborative project between the University of Arizona (UA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The overall objective of our project is to develop and evaluate the first hybrid 3-D hydrological model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km for the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). We have made substantial progress in model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation, as discussed in Sections 2-4. Section 5 presents our success in data dissemination, while Section 6 discusses the scientific impacts of our work. Section 7 discusses education and mentoring success of our project, while Section 8 lists our relevant DOE services. All peer-reviewed papers that acknowledged this project are listed in Section 9. Highlights of our achievements include: • We have finished 20 papers (most published already) on model development and evaluation, computational efficiencies and software engineering, and data development and evaluation • The global datasets developed under this project have been permanently archived and publicly available • Some of our research results have already been implemented in WRF and CLM • Patrick Broxton and Michael Brunke have received their Ph.D. • PI Zeng has served on DOE proposal review panels and DOE lab scientific focus area (SFA) review panels

  10. Improving Convection and Cloud Parameterization Using ARM Observations and NCAR Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

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    Zhang, Guang J. [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2016-11-07

    The fundamental scientific objectives of our research are to use ARM observations and the NCAR CAM5 to understand the large-scale control on convection, and to develop improved convection and cloud parameterizations for use in GCMs.

  11. A Diagnostic PDF Cloud Scheme to Improve Subtropical Low Clouds in NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Yi; Lin, Yanluan; Xu, Shiming; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Xie, Shaocheng

    2018-02-01

    Low clouds strongly impact the radiation budget of the climate system, but their simulation in most GCMs has remained a challenge, especially over the subtropical stratocumulus region. Assuming a Gaussian distribution for the subgrid-scale total water and liquid water potential temperature, a new statistical cloud scheme is proposed and tested in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The subgrid-scale variance is diagnosed from the turbulent and shallow convective processes in CAM5. The approach is able to maintain the consistency between cloud fraction and cloud condensate and thus alleviates the adjustment needed in the default relative humidity-based cloud fraction scheme. Short-term forecast simulations indicate that low cloud fraction and liquid water content, including their diurnal cycle, are improved due to a proper consideration of subgrid-scale variance over the southeastern Pacific Ocean region. Compared with the default cloud scheme, the new approach produced the mean climate reasonably well with improved shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) due to more reasonable low cloud fraction and liquid water path over regions with predominant low clouds. Meanwhile, the SWCF bias over the tropical land regions is also alleviated. Furthermore, the simulated marine boundary layer clouds with the new approach extend further offshore and agree better with observations. The new approach is able to obtain the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance with a slightly alleviated double ITCZ problem in preliminary coupled simulations. This study implies that a close coupling of cloud processes with other subgrid-scale physical processes is a promising approach to improve cloud simulations.

  12. Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj Kanta; Salunke, Popat

    2018-03-01

    A new bias-corrected statistically downscaled product, namely, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), has recently been developed by NASA to help the scientific community in climate change impact studies at local to regional scale. In this work, the product is validated over India and its added value as compared to its CMIP5 counterpart for the NCAR CCSM4 model is analyzed, followed by climate change projections under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario using the two datasets for the variables daily maximum 2-m air temperature (Tmax), daily minimum 2-m air temperature (Tmin), and rainfall. It is found that, overall, the CCSM4-NEX-GDDP significantly reduces many of the biases in CCSM4-CMIP5 for the historical simulations; however, some biases such as the significant overestimation in the frequency of occurrence in the lower tail of the Tmax and Tmin still remain. In regard to rainfall, an important value addition in CCSM4-NEX-GDDP is the alleviation of the significant underestimation of rainfall extremes found in CCSM4-CMIP5. The projected Tmax from CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are in general higher than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5, suggesting that the risks of heat waves and very hot days could be higher than that projected by the latter. CCSM4-NEX-GDDP projects the frequency of occurrence of the upper extreme values of historical Tmax to increase by a factor of 100 towards the end of century (as opposed to a factor of 10 increase projected by CCSM4-CMIP5). In regard to rainfall, both CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP project an increase in annual rainfall over India under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario progressively from the near term through the far term. However, CCSM4-NEX-GDDP consistently projects a higher magnitude of increase and over a larger area as compared to that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5. Projected daily rainfall distributions from CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP suggest the occurrence of events that have no historical precedents

  13. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  14. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

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    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  15. Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

    2001-01-01

    In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

  16. Responses of Mixed-Phase Cloud Condensates and Cloud Radiative Effects to Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations in NCAR CAM5 and DOE ACME Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Shi, Y.; Wu, M.; Zhang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds frequently observed in the Arctic and mid-latitude storm tracks have the substantial impacts on the surface energy budget, precipitation and climate. In this study, we first implement the two empirical parameterizations (Niemand et al. 2012 and DeMott et al. 2015) of heterogeneous ice nucleation for mixed-phase clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy Version 1 (ACME1). Model simulated ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations based on Niemand et al. and DeMott et al. are compared with those from the default ice nucleation parameterization based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) in CAM5 and ACME, and with in situ observations. Significantly higher INP concentrations (by up to a factor of 5) are simulated from Niemand et al. than DeMott et al. and CNT especially over the dust source regions in both CAM5 and ACME. Interestingly the ACME model simulates higher INP concentrations than CAM5, especially in the Polar regions. This is also the case when we nudge the two models' winds and temperature towards the same reanalysis, indicating more efficient transport of aerosols (dust) to the Polar regions in ACME. Next, we examine the responses of model simulated cloud liquid water and ice water contents to different INP concentrations from three ice nucleation parameterizations (Niemand et al., DeMott et al., and CNT) in CAM5 and ACME. Changes in liquid water path (LWP) reach as much as 20% in the Arctic regions in ACME between the three parameterizations while the LWP changes are smaller and limited in the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes in CAM5. Finally, the impacts on cloud radiative forcing and dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds are quantified with the three ice nucleation parameterizations in CAM5 and ACME.

  17. The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

    1998-06-01

    Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

  18. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  19. Coral Reef Habitat Suitability in Future Climate Scenarios from NCAR CESM1 considering a Suite of Biogeochemical Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, L. A.; Kleypas, J. A.; Miller, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    A maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe coral reef habitat in current climate conditions and to predict changes to that habitat during the 21st century. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for the family of corals Scleractina in 1° by 1° cells. Input environmental variables most suitable for representing coral habitat limitation are isolated using a principal component analysis and include cumulative thermal stress, salinity, light availability, current speed, phosphate levels and aragonite saturation state. Considering a suite of environmental variables allows for a more synergistic view of future habitat suitability, although individual variables are found to be limiting in certain areas- for example, aragonite saturation state is limiting at higher latitudes. Climate-driven coral reef habitat changes depend strongly on the oceanic region of interest and the region of corals used to train the niche model. Increased global coral habitat loss occurred in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections as time progressed through the 21th century. Maximum suitable habitat loss was 82% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When only Caribbean/Atlantic coral reef environmental data is applied globally, 88% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP8.5. The global runs utilizing only Pacific Ocean reefs' ability to survive showed the most significant worldwide loss, 90% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained with Indian Ocean reefs, an increase in suitable habitat worldwide was estimated. Habitat suitability was found to increase by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. This suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future worldwide climate projections. Indian Ocean reefs may be ideal candidate

  20. Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that: 1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. 2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. 3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. 4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along 30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of

  1. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  2. Urban Climate Risk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2016-01-01

    of Beck’s forward-looking agenda for a post-Euro-centric social science, outlines the contours of such an urban-cosmopolitan ‘realpolitik’ of climate risks, as this is presently unfolding across East Asian world cities. Much more than a theory-building endeavour, the essay suggests, Beck’s sociology......Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology affords a much-needed rethinking of the transnational politics of climate change, not least in pointing to an emerging inter-urban geography of world cities as a potential new source of community, change and solidarity. This short essay, written in honour...... provides a standing invitation for further transnational dialogue and collaborative empirical work, in East Asia and beyond, on what are, arguably, the defining challenges for the 21st century world of global risks....

  3. Application of the system of assimilation of climatic data (CDAS) of the Project NCEP/NCAR - Reanalysis Dates Set For climatological and synoptic ends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    In response to an increasing demand of meteorological information on a synoptic scale and the need for a better and more precise knowledge of the different atmospheric fields on a local, regional and global scale, the program known as GRADS, developed by COLA in the US, has been implemented. to show graphically meteorological patterns at the surface and at different levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere based on high-quality grid data prepared by NCEP/NCAR (NOAA)

  4. An Efficient Workflow Environment to Support the Collaborative Development of Actionable Climate Information Using the NCAR Climate Risk Management Engine (CRMe)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Lee, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    Society's growing needs for robust and relevant climate information have fostered an explosion in tools and frameworks for processing climate projections. Many top-down workflows might be employed to generate sets of pre-computed data and plots, frequently served in a "loading-dock style" through a metadata-enabled search and discovery engine. Despite these increasing resources, the diverse needs of applications-driven projects often result in data processing workflow requirements that cannot be fully satisfied using past approaches. In parallel to the data processing challenges, the provision of climate information to users in a form that is also usable represents a formidable challenge of its own. Finally, many users do not have the time nor the desire to synthesize and distill massive volumes of climate information to find the relevant information for their particular application. All of these considerations call for new approaches to developing actionable climate information. CRMe seeks to bridge the gap between the diversity and richness of bottom-up needs of practitioners, with discrete, structured top-down workflows typically implemented for rapid delivery. Additionally, CRMe has implemented web-based data services capable of providing focused climate information in usable form for a given location, or as spatially aggregated information for entire regions or countries following the needs of users and sectors. Making climate data actionable also involves summarizing and presenting it in concise and approachable ways. CRMe is developing the concept of dashboards, co-developed with the users, to condense the key information into a quick summary of the most relevant, curated climate data for a given discipline, application, or location, while still enabling users to efficiently conduct deeper discovery into rich datasets on an as-needed basis.

  5. Climate, Carbon, Conservation and Communities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaugn, Kit; Brickell, Emily [WWF-UK (United Kingdom); Roe, Dilys; Reid, Hannah; Elliot, Jo

    2007-07-01

    The growing market for carbon offers great opportunities for linking greenhouse gas mitigation with conservation of forests and biodiversity, and the generation of local livelihoods. For these combined objectives to be achieved, strong governance is needed along with institutions that ensure poor people win, rather than lose out, from the new challenges posed by climate change. This briefing paper explores the opportunities from and limitations to carbon-based funds for conservation and development. It highlights mechanisms that may help secure benefits for climate, conservation and communities.

  6. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  7. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; White, G.; Woollen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Leetmaa, A.; Reynolds, B.; Chelliah, M.; Ebisuzaki, W.; Higgins, W.; Janowiak, J.; Mo, K. C.; Ropelewski, C.; Wang, J.; Jenne, Roy; Joseph, Dennis

    1996-03-01

    The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted "reanalysis") to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957-96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system.The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a "quick look" CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CD-ROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, "C" variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined

  8. Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaikh Mohammad Kais

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community’s capability of bouncing back—restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward—the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the ‘bouncing back’ and ‘moving forward’ properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community’s resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1 the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2 emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community’s resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions.

  9. Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kais, Shaikh Mohammad; Islam, Md Saidul

    2016-01-01

    In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community’s capability of bouncing back—restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward—the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the ‘bouncing back’ and ‘moving forward’ properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community’s resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1) the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2) emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community’s resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions. PMID:27929448

  10. Parallel community climate model: Description and user`s guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, J.B.; Flanery, R.E.; Semeraro, B.D.; Worley, P.H. [and others

    1996-07-15

    This report gives an overview of a parallel version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, CCM2, implemented for MIMD massively parallel computers using a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallel implementation was developed on an Intel iPSC/860 with 128 processors and on the Intel Delta with 512 processors, and the initial target platform for the production version of the code is the Intel Paragon with 2048 processors. Because the implementation uses a standard, portable message-passing libraries, the code has been easily ported to other multiprocessors supporting a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallelization strategy used is to decompose the problem domain into geographical patches and assign each processor the computation associated with a distinct subset of the patches. With this decomposition, the physics calculations involve only grid points and data local to a processor and are performed in parallel. Using parallel algorithms developed for the semi-Lagrangian transport, the fast Fourier transform and the Legendre transform, both physics and dynamics are computed in parallel with minimal data movement and modest change to the original CCM2 source code. Sequential or parallel history tapes are written and input files (in history tape format) are read sequentially by the parallel code to promote compatibility with production use of the model on other computer systems. A validation exercise has been performed with the parallel code and is detailed along with some performance numbers on the Intel Paragon and the IBM SP2. A discussion of reproducibility of results is included. A user`s guide for the PCCM2 version 2.1 on the various parallel machines completes the report. Procedures for compilation, setup and execution are given. A discussion of code internals is included for those who may wish to modify and use the program in their own research.

  11. NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory - An End-to-End Observational Science Enterprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockwell, A.; Baeuerle, B.; Grubišić, V.; Hock, T. F.; Lee, W. C.; Ranson, J.; Stith, J. L.; Stossmeister, G.

    2017-12-01

    Researchers who want to understand and describe the Earth System require high-quality observations of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere. Making these observations not only requires capable research platforms and state-of-the-art instrumentation but also benefits from comprehensive in-field project management and data services. NCAR's Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) is an end-to-end observational science enterprise that provides leadership in observational research to scientists from universities, U.S. government agencies, and NCAR. Deployment: EOL manages the majority of the NSF Lower Atmosphere Observing Facilities, which includes research aircraft, radars, lidars, profilers, and surface and sounding systems. This suite is designed to address a wide range of Earth system science - from microscale to climate process studies and from the planet's surface into the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere. EOL offers scientific, technical, operational, and logistics support to small and large field campaigns across the globe. Development: By working closely with the scientific community, EOL's engineering and scientific staff actively develop the next generation of observing facilities, staying abreast of emerging trends, technologies, and applications in order to improve our measurement capabilities. Through our Design and Fabrication Services, we also offer high-level engineering and technical expertise, mechanical design, and fabrication to the atmospheric research community. Data Services: EOL's platforms and instruments collect unique datasets that must be validated, archived, and made available to the research community. EOL's Data Management and Services deliver high-quality datasets and metadata in ways that are transparent, secure, and easily accessible. We are committed to the highest standard of data stewardship from collection to validation to archival. Discovery: EOL promotes curiosity about Earth science, and fosters advanced understanding of the

  12. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  13. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

    2016-10-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

  14. Engaging diverse communities towards climate protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nichols, J.; Imran, N. [Blekinge Inst. of Technology, Karlskrona (Sweden)

    2008-07-01

    Engaging urban communities as newcomers towards UN climate change targets is not only good governance but also a way of relating deliberative democracy to the human need of participation. This poster outlines effective multicultural engagement as it relates to strategic sustainable development. The presentation shares the benefits of broadening communication strategies from informing citizens to consultation and empowering diverse communities to participate in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Doing Climate Science in Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandya, R. E.; Bennett, B.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, the goal of broadening participation in the geosciences has been expressed and approached from the viewpoint of the majority-dominated geoscience community. The need for more students who are American Indian, Native Hawaiian, or Alaska Native is expressed in terms of the need to diversify the research community, and strategies to engage more students are often posed around the question “what can we do to get more indigenous students interested in coming to our institutions to do geosciences?” This approach can lead to neglecting indigenous ways of knowing, inadvertently prioritizes western values over traditional ones, and doesn’t necessarily honor tribal community’s desire to hold on to their talented youth. Further, while this approach has resulted in some modest success, the overall participation in geoscience by students from indigenous backgrounds remains low. Many successful programs, however, have tried an alternate approach; they begin by approaching the geosciences from the viewpoint of indigenous communities. The questions they ask center around how geosciences can advance the priorities of indigenous communities, and their approaches focus on building capacity for the geosciences within indigenous communities. Most importantly, perhaps, these efforts originate in Tribal communities themselves, and invite the geoscience research community to partner in projects that are rooted in indigenous culture and values. Finally, these programs recognize that scientific expertise is only one among many skills indigenous peoples employ in their relation with their homelands. Climate change, like all things related to the landscape, is intimately connected to the core of indigenous cultures. Thus, emerging concerns about climate change provide a venue for developing new, indigenous-centered, approaches to the persistent problem of broadening participation in the geoscience. This presentation will highlight three indigenous-led efforts in to

  16. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  17. NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

    2016-12-01

    Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

  18. Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience—vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state, and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptua

  19. Plant community responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kongstad, J.

    2012-07-01

    ecosystem more resilient to the climatic treatments than expected. We also found that the amount of flowering culms of D. flexuosa increased in response to increased CO{sub 2}, whereas the seed germination success decreased. The bryophyte biomass and the nitrogen content decreased in response to nitrogen addition. Even such apparently minor changes might, given time, affect the plant composition and thereby possibly also the major ecosystem processes. Further, we observed changes in the aboveground plant composition in response to the climate manipulations at the Mols site, where C. vulgaris was regenerating after a disturbance. Here a decrease in biomass of the pioneer stage was seen, when subjected to the drought treatment compared to warmed and control treatments. I therefore conclude, that the stage of the C. vulgaris population as well as the magnitude and frequency of disturbances determine the effects of future climate change on the plant community in heathland ecosystems. (Author)

  20. Facilitating NCAR Data Discovery by Connecting Related Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, A.

    2012-12-01

    Linking datasets, creators, and users by employing the proper standards helps to increase the impact of funded research. In order for users to find a dataset, it must first be named. Data citations play the important role of giving datasets a persistent presence by assigning a formal "name" and location. This project focuses on the next step of the "name-find-use" sequence: enhancing discoverability of NCAR data by connecting related resources on the web. By examining metadata schemas that document datasets, I examined how Semantic Web approaches can help to ensure the widest possible range of data users. The focus was to move from search engine optimization (SEO) to information connectivity. Two main markup types are very visible in the Semantic Web and applicable to scientific dataset discovery: The Open Archives Initiative-Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE - www.openarchives.org) and Microdata (HTML5 and www.schema.org). My project creates pilot aggregations of related resources using both markup types for three case studies: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset and related publications, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PSDI) animation and image files from NCAR's Visualization Lab (VisLab), and the multidisciplinary data types and formats from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS). This project documents the differences between these markups and how each creates connectedness on the web. My recommendations point toward the most efficient and effective markup schema for aggregating resources within the three case studies based on the following assessment criteria: ease of use, current state of support and adoption of technology, integration with typical web tools, available vocabularies and geoinformatic standards, interoperability with current repositories and access portals (e.g. ESG, Java), and relation to data citation tools and methods.

  1. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

  2. Taking a Multi-pronged Approach to Expand the Reach of Climate Research Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, R.; Unger, M.; Eastburn, T.; Rockwell, A.; Laursen, K. K.; National CenterAtmospheric Research

    2011-12-01

    Recognizing the importance of tailoring content to a variety of audiences, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) takes a multi-pronged approach to expand the reach of climate research results. The center's communications and education and outreach teams leverage Web 1.0 and 2.0 functionality - Google searches, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube - as well as face-to-face interactions and traditional media outlets to ensure climate change messages effectively connect with multiple audiences. Key to these efforts, NCAR seeks to frame messages that emphasize cultural cognition, that is, in a manner that recognizes and resonates with different audiences' values and thus their identities. Among the basic communications approaches NCAR uses to engage the public are one-on-one interactions with the visiting public, which ranges from school children and tourists, to dignitaries and journalists. As an example, the NCAR Journalism Fellowship brings a competitively selected group of internatoinal journalists to NCAR. During a week-long visit and ongoing contact, journalists are provided with a close-up, nuanced view of the science and individuals working on the bigger-picture research that drives climate-related sound bites reported by the press. NCAR provides media training for its scientists, giving them tools and practice in effectively handling interviews for print, Web and radio outlets. The institution hosts public events like "Super Science Saturday," and NCAR staff participate in external activities such as school science fairs, community events and continuing education sessions. In addition to interactive displays that allow the public to "experience" science directly and informally, NCAR develops educational programs and curricula targeted to specific age groups and levels of expertise. We will explore the importance of analogies, images and anecdotes in explaining complicated subjects to such a varied set of audiences, and identify key concepts in simplifying

  3. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  4. Community College Organizational Climate for Minorities and Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Barbara K.

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores the issues of what would constitute a positive organizational climate for women and minorities within the community college setting and ways in which such a climate might be achieved. It first describes some traditional or standard measures of a positive organizational climate for women and minorities and then evaluates how…

  5. Old-field Community, Climate and Atmospheric Manipulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aimee Classen

    2009-11-01

    We are in the process of finishing a number of laboratory, growth chamber and greenhouse projects, analyzing data, and writing papers. The projects reported addressed these subjects: How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground plant biomass and community structure; Effects of multiple climate changes factors on plant community composition and diversity: what did we learn from a 5-year open-top chamber experiment using constructed old-field communities; Do atmospheric and climatic change factors interact to alter woody seedling emergence, establishment and productivity; Soil moisture surpasses elevated CO{sub 2} and temperature in importance as a control on soil carbon dynamics; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground root and fungal biomass; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter soil microarthropod and microbial communities; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground microbial function; Linking root litter diversity and microbial functioning at a micro scale under current and projected CO{sub 2} concentrations; Multifactor climate change effects on soil ecosystem functioning depend on concurrent changes in plant community composition; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground insect populations; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter festuca endophyte infection; How do climate and atmospheric changes soil carbon stabilization.

  6. Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data for the NSF/NCAR HIAPER (GV) and NSF/NCAR C-130 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, J.

    2014-12-01

    The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies. The data collected are an important legacy of these field campaigns. A comprehensive metadata database and integrated cyber-infrastructure, along with a robust data workflow that begins during the field phase and extends to long-term archival (current aircraft data holdings go back to 1967), assures that: all data and associated software are safeguarded throughout the data handling process; community standards of practice for data stewardship and software version control are followed; simple and timely community access to collected data and associated software tools are provided; and the quality of the collected data is preserved, with the ultimate goal of supporting research and the reproducibility of published results. The components of this data system to be presented include: robust, searchable web access to data holdings; reliable, redundant data storage; web-based tools and scripts for efficient creation, maintenance and update of data holdings; access to supplemental data and documentation; storage of data in standardized data formats; comprehensive metadata collection; mature version control; human-discernable storage practices; and procedures to inform users of changes. In addition, lessons learned, shortcomings, and desired upgrades

  7. Exploring the Climate for Women as Community College Faculty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagedorn, Linda Serra; Laden, Berta Vigil

    2002-01-01

    Provides a literature review and national dataset analyses regarding the perceived conditions of women community college faculty members. Reports that the climate at the average community college may be friendlier than at four-year institutions; however, women faculty at community colleges are not free from the confines of glass ceilings, academic…

  8. Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

    2014-12-01

    In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

  9. Gender and climate change-induced conflict in pastoral communities

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    30 juin 2011 ... Climate change poses serious challenges to the already precarious livelihoods of pastoral communities in East Africa. Now, climate-related resource scarcities are increasing the likelihood of violent conflict. Women are often most vulnerable to such violence. Understanding the drivers of this environmental ...

  10. Community based adaptations to climate change: experiences of the Mijikenda Community in Coastal Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Groh, Maxie Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    Small-scale farmers in Africa are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Macro level climate change policies are having little positive impacts on their livelihoods. However, at the local level, communities are innovating and adapting to climate change. While these innovations are not enough to guarantee extensive adaptation to climate change, they are an important element for the survival of agrarian societies and botanical diversity. It is therefore importan...

  11. Preparing US community greenhouse gas inventories for climate action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackhurst, Michael; Scott Matthews, H; Hendrickson, Chris T; Sharrard, Aurora L; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2011-01-01

    This study illustrates how alternative and supplemental community-level greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory techniques could improve climate action planning. Eighteen US community GHG inventories are reviewed for current practice. Inventory techniques could be improved by disaggregating the sectors reported, reporting inventory uncertainty and variability, and aligning inventories with local organizations that could facilitate emissions reductions. The potential advantages and challenges of supplementing inventories with comparative benchmarks are also discussed. While GHG inventorying and climate action planning are nascent fields, these techniques can improve CAP design, help communities set more meaningful emission reduction targets, and facilitate CAP implementation and progress monitoring.

  12. Preparing US community greenhouse gas inventories for climate action plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blackhurst, Michael [Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1752, Austin, TX 78712-0276 (United States); Scott Matthews, H; Hendrickson, Chris T [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Sharrard, Aurora L [Green Building Alliance, 333 East Carson Street, Suite 331, Pittsburgh, PA 15219 (United States); Azevedo, Ines Lima, E-mail: mblackhurst@gmail.com, E-mail: hsm@cmu.edu, E-mail: auroras@gbapgh.org, E-mail: cth@andrew.cmu.edu, E-mail: iazevedo@cmu.edu [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This study illustrates how alternative and supplemental community-level greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory techniques could improve climate action planning. Eighteen US community GHG inventories are reviewed for current practice. Inventory techniques could be improved by disaggregating the sectors reported, reporting inventory uncertainty and variability, and aligning inventories with local organizations that could facilitate emissions reductions. The potential advantages and challenges of supplementing inventories with comparative benchmarks are also discussed. While GHG inventorying and climate action planning are nascent fields, these techniques can improve CAP design, help communities set more meaningful emission reduction targets, and facilitate CAP implementation and progress monitoring.

  13. School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Community Partners. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

    2017-01-01

    Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines how community partners can support school climate improvements. Organizations and individuals can partner with schools in many different ways--from delivering or coordinating direct services to students and families inside or…

  14. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Forrest [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Fung, Inez [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Randerson, Jim [University of California at Irvine, Irvine, California (United States); Thornton, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Foley, Jon [University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Covey, Curtis [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); John, Jasmin [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Levis, Samuel [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Post, W Mac [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Stoeckli, Reto [Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado (United States); Running, Steve [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Heinsch, Faith Ann [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Erickson, David [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Drake, John [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States)

    2006-09-15

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA{sup '} biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C{sup 4}MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA{sup '} is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  15. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, Forrest; Fung, Inez; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter; Foley, Jon; Covey, Curtis; John, Jasmin; Levis, Samuel; Post, W Mac; Vertenstein, Mariana; Stoeckli, Reto; Running, Steve; Heinsch, Faith Ann; Erickson, David; Drake, John

    2006-01-01

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA ' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C 4 MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA ' is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  16. Community-based adaptation to climate change: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul

    2009-06-15

    Over a billion people - the world's poorest and most bulnerable communities – will bear the brunt of climate change. For them, building local capacity to cope is a vital step towards resilience. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is emerging as a key response to this challenge. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on autonomous adaptations to climate variability, such as the traditional baira or floating gardens of Bangladesh, which help small farmers' crops survive climate-driven floods. Above all, CBA is participatory – a process involving both local stakeholders, and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As such, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many regions, and is ripe for the reassessment offered here.

  17. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  18. Comparing the Global Charcoal Database with Burned Area Trends from an Offline Fire Model Driven by the NCAR Last Millennium Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, A.; Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    This study uses an offline fire model driven by output from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to evaluate how climate, ecological, and human factors contributed to burned area over the past millennium, and uses the Global Charcoal Database (GCD) record of fire activity as a constraint. The offline fire model is similar to the fire module within the NCAR Community Land Model. The LME experiment includes 13 simulations of the Earth system from 850 CE through 2005 CE, and the fire model simulates burned area using LME climate and vegetation with imposed land use and land cover change. The fire model trends are compared to GCD records of charcoal accumulation rates derived from sediment cores. The comparisons are a way to assess the skill of the fire model, but also set up a methodology to directly test hypotheses of the main drivers of fire patterns over the past millennium. The focus is on regions selected from the GCD with high data density, and that have lake sediment cores that best capture the last millennium. Preliminary results are based on a fire model which excludes burning cropland and pasture land cover types, but this allows some assessment of how climate variability is captured by the fire model. Generally, there is good agreement between modeled burned area trends and fire trends from GCD for many regions of interest, suggesting the strength of climate variability as a control. At the global scale, trends and features are similar from 850 to 1700, which includes the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. After 1700, the trends significantly deviate, which may be due to non-cultivated land being converted to cultivated. In key regions of high data density in the GCD such as the Western USA, the trends agree from 850 to 1200 but diverge from 1200 to 1300. From 1300 to 1800, the trends show good agreement again. Implementing processes to include burning cultivated land within the fire model is anticipated to

  19. Engaging Youth on Climate & Health to Cultivate Community Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haine, D. B.; Gray, K. M.; Chang, D.; Morton, T.; Steele, B.; Backus, A.; Hauptman, M.

    2017-12-01

    Cultivating climate literacy among youth positions them to develop solutions and advocate for actions that prepare communities to adapt to climate change, mitigate emissions and ultimately protect human health and well-being, with an eye towards protecting the most vulnerable populations. This presentation will describe an innovative partnership among three university environmental health programs—based at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Columbia University and Harvard University—and their community collaborators: the Alliance for Climate Education, Boston Children's Hospital Pediatric Environmental Health Center and WE ACT for Environmental Justice. This project engages youth through non-formal educational programming that promotes climate literacy while also building the capacity of today's youth to promote community resilience. This partnership led to the development and implementation of two, long-duration extracurricular youth science enrichment programs in 2017, one in North Carolina (NC) and one in New York, with joint activities conducted virtually and in person to connect students with each other and with leading public health professionals and others working to promote community resilience and climate justice. Forty high school students, 20 from central NC and 20 from West Harlem in New York City, are enrolled in each program. In July 2017, students came together for a 3-day summer institute in NC. This session will feature the strategies, STEM-based activities and resources used in this project to engage students in the examination of their communities, identification and evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and promotion of community resilience. Programming entailed having students interact with public health professionals, scientists and others to learn about climate impacts to public health and its infrastructure, vulnerable populations and planning for resilient communities. Ultimately, we sought to promote

  20. Climate impacts on fungal community and trait dynamics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Andrew, C.; Heegaard, E.; Halvorsen, R.; Martinez-Pena, F.; Egli, S.; Kirk, P.M.; Baessler, C.; Büntgen, Ulf; Aldea, J.; Hoiland, K.; Boddy, L.; Kauserud, H.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 22, aug (2016), s. 17-25 ISSN 1754-5048 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear dimensionality reduction * root-tip communities * ectomycorrhizal fungi * environmental drivers * resource availability * mycorrhizal fungi * fruit bodies * soil * forest * patterns * Community structure * Fungi-forest-climate interactions * Life-history traits * Long-term data * Successional models Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.219, year: 2016

  1. COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai-Chen, C.

    Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

  2. Engaging with Underserved Urban Communities on Climate Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, K.; Moser, F. C.; Baja, K.; Dindinger, J. M.; Chanse, V.; Rowan, K. E.; Rohring, B.

    2016-12-01

    Meeting the needs of urban high-risk/low-resource communities is one of the most critical challenges in improving climate resilience nationally, but little tailored information exists to guide community engagement efforts specifically for these contexts. This case study describes a collaboration between universities, local governments, and community members working in underserved neighborhoods of the City of Baltimore and Prince George's County, Maryland. In service of current and developing community programs, the team surveyed residents door-to-door about their perceptions of the socio-environmental risks they face, their priorities for change, and the ways in which communication may build protective social capital. We highlight theoretical, applied, and pedagogical aspects of the study that inform both the promise and limitations of these collaborations. These include: 1) the role of citizen participation in climate adaptation decision-making; 2) the meaning, use, and potential impact of community data; 3) balancing differing organizational priorities, timelines, and cultures within community-based projects; and 4) research participation of undergraduate students. The results of the survey illuminate climate risk perceptions in neighborhoods facing complex stressors with lessons for communication and engagement in other urban areas facing similar adaptation challenges.

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS: ARE THEY CORRELATED?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achmad Romsan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and global warming affect major change in freshwater availability and season uncertainty which hamper all part of the globe. Although the phenomenon is not new but it needs concerns from all the government of States around the world to  address the problem. If notthe drought and water shortages will directly and indirectly be the world problem and finally will ignite conflict over resources.Pollution and environmental degradation will also affect the sustainability of community’s economic activities. In Indonesia, since the enforcement of the first Environmental Management Act of 1982 up to the third Environmental Management Act of 2019, there have been forty one conflicts involving community and industries and palm plantation companies. All the conflicts are brought before the courts. Herein, industries and plantations are blamed for responsible for river water pollution and environmental degradation. Unfortunately, there is very little information in Indonesia obtained from the research reports, journals, news papers, magazines whether climate change and global warming also responsible for the occurrence of community environmental conflict. From the second data sources obtained from outsite Indonesia it is found that there is a link between climate change and community environmental disputes. The objectives of this paper tryto examine whether the cases submitted and solved by the District Courtsalso have some connection with the climate change phenomenon. Other objectives are to recommend to the Government of Indonesia to strengthen the existing regulations dealing with the climate change

  4. An Examination of Campus Climate for LGBTQ Community College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvey, Jason C.; Taylor, Jason L.; Rankin, Susan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines campus climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) undergraduate students at community colleges. Data for the study originates from Rankin, Blumenfeld, Weber, and Frazer's (2010) "State of Higher Education for LGBT People." We analyzed both quantitative data generated from closed-ended…

  5. 507 community perception on climate change and usage patterns

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    forest-dependent communities as a strategy to cope with the impacts of climate change and variability around the ..... minimize or spread risks by managing a mix of crops, crop ... harvesting, processing and marketing of NTFPs is needed so as ...

  6. Impacts of climatic changes on small mammal communities in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To evaluate the impact of climatic change on rodent sahelian communities, we analysed the contents of over 2500 barn owl (Tyto alba) pellets collected along the Senegal river between 1989 and 2003, and from the Ferlo sahelian area in 2003. These results are compared with data from the 1970s and 1980s in the same ...

  7. Common Belief. Australia's Faith Communities on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-12-01

    Sixteen Australian faith communities representing the world's great religious traditions have united to speak out on climate change: Aboriginal people, the Australian Christian lobby, Baha'i believers, Baptists, Buddhists, Catholics, Evangelical Christians, Greek Orthodox, Hindus, Jewish people, Lutherans, Muslims, The Salvation Army, Sikhs, The United Church

  8. Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

    1999-11-13

    The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

  9. Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

    2017-01-01

    The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

  10. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  11. Psychosocial influences on safety climate: evidence from community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, Denham L; Ashcroft, Darren M

    2011-12-01

    To examine the relationship between psychosocial job characteristics and safety climate. Cross-sectional survey. Community pharmacies in Great Britain. Participants A random sample of community pharmacists registered in Great Britain (n = 860). Survey instruments Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) indicator and Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). Main outcome measures Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire (PSCQ). The profile of scores from the ERI indicated a relatively high risk of adverse psychological effects. The profile of scores from the JCQ indicated both high demand on pharmacists and a high level of psychological and social resources to meet these demands. Path analysis confirmed a model in which the ERI and JCQ measures, as well as the type of pharmacy and pharmacist role, predicted responses to the PSCQ (χ(2)(36) = 111.38, p demand) accounted for the effect of job characteristics on safety climate ratings; each had differential effects on the PSCQ scales. The safety climate in community pharmacies is influenced by perceptions of job characteristics, such as the level of job demands and the resources available to meet these demands. Hence, any efforts to improve safety should take into consideration the effect of the psychosocial work environment on safety climate. In addition, there is a need to address the presence of work-related stressors, which have the potential to cause direct or indirect harm to staff and service users. The findings of the current study provide a basis for future research to improve the safety climate and well-being, both in the pharmacy profession and in other healthcare settings.

  12. Expanding Access to NCAR's Digital Assets: Towards a Unified Scientific Data Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, D.

    2016-12-01

    In 2014 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement the strategic vision of an integrated front door for data discovery and access across the organization, including all laboratories, the library, and UCAR Community Programs. The DSET is focused on improving the quality of users' experiences in finding and using NCAR's digital assets. This effort also supports new policies included in federal mandates, NSF requirements, and journal publication rules. An initial survey with 97 respondents identified 68 persons responsible for more than 3 petabytes of data. An inventory, using the Data Asset Framework produced by the UK Digital Curation Centre as a starting point, identified asset types that included files and metadata, publications, images, and software (visualization, analysis, model codes). User story sessions with representatives from each lab identified and ranked desired features for a unified Scientific Data Management System (SDMS). A process beginning with an organization-wide assessment of metadata by the HDF Group and followed by meetings with labs to identify key documentation concepts, culminated in the development of an NCAR metadata dialect that leverages the DataCite and ISO 19115 standards. The tasks ahead are to build out an SDMS and populate it with rich standardized metadata. Software packages have been prototyped and currently are being tested and reviewed by DSET members. Key challenges for the DSET include technical and non-technical issues. First, the status quo with regard to how assets are managed varies widely across the organization. There are differences in file format standards, technologies, and discipline-specific vocabularies. Metadata diversity is another real challenge. The types of metadata, the standards used, and the capacity to create new metadata varies across the organization. Significant effort is required to develop tools to create

  13. Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

  14. Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucek, Ross E; Rehage, Jennifer S

    2014-06-01

    The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. The NCAR Research Data Archive's Hybrid Approach for Data Discovery and Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, D.; Worley, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The NCAR Research Data Archive (RDA http://rda.ucar.edu) maintains a variety of data discovery and access capabilities for it's 600+ dataset collections to support the varying needs of a diverse user community. In-house developed and standards-based community tools offer services to more than 10,000 users annually. By number of users the largest group is external and access the RDA through web based protocols; the internal NCAR HPC users are fewer in number, but typically access more data volume. This paper will detail the data discovery and access services maintained by the RDA to support both user groups, and show metrics that illustrate how the community is using the services. The distributed search capability enabled by standards-based community tools, such as Geoportal and an OAI-PMH access point that serves multiple metadata standards, provide pathways for external users to initially discover RDA holdings. From here, in-house developed web interfaces leverage primary discovery level metadata databases that support keyword and faceted searches. Internal NCAR HPC users, or those familiar with the RDA, may go directly to the dataset collection of interest and refine their search based on rich file collection metadata. Multiple levels of metadata have proven to be invaluable for discovery within terabyte-sized archives composed of many atmospheric or oceanic levels, hundreds of parameters, and often numerous grid and time resolutions. Once users find the data they want, their access needs may vary as well. A THREDDS data server running on targeted dataset collections enables remote file access through OPENDAP and other web based protocols primarily for external users. In-house developed tools give all users the capability to submit data subset extraction and format conversion requests through scalable, HPC based delayed mode batch processing. Users can monitor their RDA-based data processing progress and receive instructions on how to access the data when it is

  16. Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanrahan, J.

    2015-12-01

    While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.

  17. Analysis and Lessons Learned from an Online, Consultative Dialogue between Community Leaders and Climate Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylak-Glassman, E.; Clavin, C.

    2016-12-01

    Common approaches to climate resilience planning in the United States rely upon participatory planning approaches and dialogues between decision-makers, science translators, and subject matter experts. In an effort to explore alternative approaches support community climate resilience planning, a pilot of a public-private collaboration called the Resilience Dialogues was held in February and March of 2016. The Resilience Dialogues pilot was an online, asynchronous conversation between community leaders and climate experts, designed to help communities begin the process of climate resilience planning. In order to identify lessons learned from the pilot, we analyzed the discourse of the facilitated dialogues, administered surveys and conducted interviews with participants. Our analysis of the pilot suggests that participating community leaders found value in the consultative dialogue with climate experts, despite limited community-originated requests for climate information. Community leaders most often asked for advice regarding adaptation planning, including specific engineering guidance and advice on how to engage community members around the topic of resilience. Community leaders that had access to downscaled climate data asked experts about how to incorporate the data into their existing planning processes. The guidance sought by community leaders during the pilot shows a large range of hurdles that communities face in using climate information to inform their decision-making processes. Having a forum that connects community leaders with relevant experts and other community leaders who have familiarity with both climate impacts and municipal planning processes would likely help communities accelerate their resilience efforts.

  18. Decoding the Digital Campus Climate for Prospective LGBTQ+ Community Colleges Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jason L.; Dockendorff, Kari J.; Inselman, Kyle

    2018-01-01

    LGBTQ+ students are increasingly visible on community college campuses, and a safe and welcoming campus climate is critical to LGBTQ+ students' academic success and well-being. Campus climate is difficult to assess for prospective LGBTQ+ community college students, and institutional websites may be a source of information about campus climate.…

  19. Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather T. Root; Bruce. McCune; Sarah. Jovan

    2014-01-01

    Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

  20. Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    The focus of 'Local governments and climate change' is on how small and medium-sized communities in Europe are effectively responding to climate change, with a particular focus on different approaches...

  1. Climatic and Environmental Changes Affecting Communities in Atlantic Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liette Vasseur

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Small rural coastal communities located in Atlantic Canada are vulnerable to the effects of climate and environmental changes. Major storms have impounded the coastline, causing much physical damage and affecting the socioeconomics of these communities that are composed of an aging population. The current study relays findings based on interviews completed in 2011–2012, following the 2010 winter storms in Atlantic Canada. It portrays the physical and social–ecological impacts affecting 10 coastal communities located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Semi-structured interviews held in these provinces are the basis for the contributions of this research. The findings reveal physical changes related to coastal erosion from high-wave impacts and storm surge causing flooding of the coastal zone. Also considered are strategies preferred and actually implemented by residents, such as building of protection walls, although undesirable. Due to funding constraints, however, many of these large-scale flood protection projects are not possible without governmental support. Instead, it is suggested that development be controlled and some respondents in this study upheld that relocation be used to alleviate the situation. Finally, more work is required to improve emergency planning. Better concerted short- and long-term responses need to be coordinated by local authorities and higher up in the government in order to ensure the sustainability of these coastal communities.

  2. Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

    2011-09-01

    Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

  3. Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, R.E.

    1986-01-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project

  4. Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, R.E.

    1986-12-03

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project.

  5. Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

  6. Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonder, Benjamin; Nogués-Bravo, David; Borregaard, Michael K; Donoghue, John C; Jørgensen, Peter M; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Violle, Cyrille; Rahbek, Carsten; Enquist, Brian J

    2015-04-01

    We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

  7. Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

  8. Place Identity, Participation, and Emotional Climate in a Rural Community From the Northern Coast of Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Silvana; Espinosa, Agustín; Rottenbacher, Jan Marc

    2015-01-01

    Currently, in rural communities from the Peruvian northern coast, it is common to find a climate of distrust and pessimism that accompanies the lack of coordinated social action and community participation among residents. This study analyzes the relationships that people develop with regard to the place where they live in, how it associates to the ways they participate in their community and the relationship that these two variables have with the perceived emotional climate, in a rural community from the northern coast of Peru (n = 81). Results indicate that place identity is significantly associated with a high community participation and a climate of trust in the community. Finally, a Path Analysis is performed to analyze comprehensively the relationship between these variables. The results suggest that place identity does have an influence on perceived positive climate in the community, being mediated by the dimensions of community participation.

  9. Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jennings, Simon; Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    for the community under the same climate scenario. The main weakness of the community approach is that the methods predict abundance and production by size-class rather than taxonomic group, and society would be particularly concerned if climate driven changes had a strong effect on the relative production...... of fishable and non-fishable species in the community. The main strength of the community approach is that it provides widely applicable ‘null’ models for assessing the biological effects of climate change and a baseline for model comparisons.......Climate effects on the structure and function of marine communities have received scant attention. The few existing approaches for predicting climate effects suggest that community responses might be predicted from the responses of component populations. These approaches require a very complex...

  10. Staff Turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (Act) Teams: The Role of Team Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xi; Wholey, Douglas R; Cain, Cindy; Natafgi, Nabil

    2017-03-01

    Staff turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams can result in interrupted services and diminished support for clients. This paper examines the effect of team climate, defined as team members' shared perceptions of their work environment, on turnover and individual outcomes that mediate the climate-turnover relationship. We focus on two climate dimensions: safety and quality climate and constructive conflict climate. Using survey data collected from 26 ACT teams, our analyses highlight the importance of safety and quality climate in reducing turnover, and job satisfaction as the main mediator linking team climate to turnover. The findings offer practical implications for team management.

  11. Connecting communities for climate and disaster risk preparedness ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate adaptation and disaster risk management and response are ... not only mitigate impact but to improve preparedness, risk management, and climate resilience. ... including heat stress, water management, and climate-related migration.

  12. Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Ferrier, Simon; Lorenz, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa. PMID:26962143

  13. Community gardens as a strategy for coping with climate shocks in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought is the most important climate shock affecting rural farmers this century. In a bid to reduce the effects of climate shocks, coping strategies are being investigated. Community gardens is one such strategy. The purpose of the study was to objectively look at the dynamics involved in community gardens, that is, the ...

  14. Student Leadership Distribution: Effects of a Student-Led Leadership Program on School Climate and Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Jeff; Yager, Stuart; Yager, Robert

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the understandings educators developed from two schools concerning how distributed leadership involving a select group of students affected the climate and community of their schools. Findings suggest that student-led leadership roles within the school community have an impact on creating a positive school-wide climate; a…

  15. Climate Resilience: Outreach and Engagement with Hard to Reach Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baja, K.

    2017-12-01

    Baltimore faces a unique combination of shocks and stresses that cut across social, economic, and environmental sectors. Like many postindustrial cities, Baltimore has experienced a decline in its population - resulting in a lower tax base. These trends have had deleterious effects on the city's ability to attend to much needed infrastructure improvements and human services. Furthermore, Baltimore has an unfortunate history of deliberate racial segregation that is directly responsible for many of the economic and social challenges the City faces today. In addition to considerable social and economic issues, the city is already experiencing negative impacts from climate change. Baltimore is vulnerable to many natural hazards including heavy precipitation, sea level rise, storm surge, and extreme heat. Impacts from hazards and the capacity to adapt to them is not equal across all populations. Low-income residents and communities of color are most vulnerable and lack access to the resources to effectively plan, react and recover. They are also less likely to engage in government processes or input sessions, either due to distrust or ineffective outreach efforts by government employees and partners. This session is focused on sharing best practices and lessons learned from Baltimore's approach to community outreach and engagement as well as its focus on power shifting and relationship building with hard-to-reach communities. Reducing neighborhood vulnerability and strengthening the fabric that holds systems together requires a large number of diverse stakeholders coordinated around resiliency efforts. With the history of deliberate segregation and current disparities it remains critical to build trust, shift power from government to residents, and focus on relationship building. Baltimore City utilized this approach in planning, implementation and evaluation of resiliency work. This session will highlight two plan development processes, several projects, and innovative

  16. Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

    2017-12-01

    As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

  17. Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

    2018-01-01

    Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities

  18. PLC based control system and maintenance activities at NCAR, Bilaspur

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewangan, Jaidev; Trivedi, T.; Patel, Shiv P.; Malik, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Gupta, Santosh Kumar; Bajpai, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    A 3.0 MV high current low energy Pelletron Accelerator facility (Model 9SDH-4, NEC, USA) with TORUIS (ion source for H + and He 2+ beam current H + ion ∼ 50μA @ 6 MeV, He 2+ at ∼ 10μA) and SNICS-II ion source for heavy ions has been commissioned as 'National Centre for Accelerator Based Research' in the Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya. In this paper, we detail out the control system developed and implemented at NCAR. The basic idea of controlling the machine is by providing the output signal through PLC to ACPC of accelerator using user interface points provided by the manufacturer. The PLC based system generates output signal once it receives the feedback signals from search and secure switches, door lock switches and scram switches interlocked with PLC. The output is controlled by ladder logic and is activated only when all the radiation monitors are in healthy state and outside radiations monitor having low radiation level. The details of control system and maintenance activities will be discussed in the paper

  19. The Next Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar: NCAR/EOL Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR) Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, James; Lee, Wen-Chau; Loew, Eric; Vivekanandan, Jothiram; Grubišić, Vanda; Tsai, Peisang; Dixon, Mike; Emmett, Jonathan; Lord, Mark; Lussier, Louis; Hwang, Kyuil; Ranson, James

    2017-04-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth observing Laboratory (EOL) is entering the third year of preliminary system design studies, engineering prototype testing and project management plan preparation for the development of a novel Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR). This system being designed by NCAR/EOL will be installed and operated on the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft. The APAR system will consist of four removable C-band Active Electronically Scanned Arrays (AESA) strategically placed on the fuselage of the aircraft. Each AESA measures approximately 1.5 x 1.9 m and is composed of 3000 active radiating elements arranged in an array of line replaceable units (LRU) to simplify maintenance. APAR will provide unprecedented observations, and in conjunction with the advanced radar data assimilation schema, will be able to address the key science questions to improve understanding and predictability of significant and high-impact weather APAR, operating at C-band, allows the measurement of 3-D kinematics of the more intense portions of storms (e.g. thunderstorm dynamics and tornadic development, tropical cyclone rainband structure and evolution) with less attenuation compared with current airborne Doppler radar systems. Polarimetric measurements are not available from current airborne tail Doppler radars. However, APAR, with dual-Doppler and dual polarization diversity at a lesser attenuating C-band wavelength, will further advance the understanding of the microphysical processes within a variety of precipitation systems. The radar is sensitive enough to provide high resolution measurements of winter storm dynamics and microphysics. The planned APAR development that would bring the system to operational readiness for research community use aboard the C-130 is expected to take 8 years once major funding support is realized. The authors will review the overall APAR design and provide new details of the system based on our Technical Requirements Document

  20. Impacts of Subgrid Heterogeneous Mixing between Cloud Liquid and Ice on the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen Process and Mixed-phase Clouds in NCAR CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds are persistently observed over the Arctic and the phase partitioning between cloud liquid and ice hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds has important impacts on the surface energy budget and Arctic climate. In this study, we test the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) with the single-column and weather forecast configurations and evaluate the model performance against observation data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's M-PACE field campaign in October 2004 and long-term ground-based multi-sensor remote sensing measurements. Like most global climate models, we find that CAM5 also poorly simulates the phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds by significantly underestimating the cloud liquid water content. Assuming pocket structures in the distribution of cloud liquid and ice in mixed-phase clouds as suggested by in situ observations provides a plausible solution to improve the model performance by reducing the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process rate. In this study, the modification of the WBF process in the CAM5 model has been achieved with applying a stochastic perturbation to the time scale of the WBF process relevant to both ice and snow to account for the heterogeneous mixture of cloud liquid and ice. Our results show that this modification of WBF process improves the modeled phase partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. The seasonal variation of mixed-phase cloud properties is also better reproduced in the model in comparison with the long-term ground-based remote sensing observations. Furthermore, the phase partitioning is insensitive to the reassignment time step of perturbations.

  1. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

    2015-09-01

    The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

  3. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  4. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive: a Data Education Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G. S.; Schuster, D.

    2015-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, is not just another data center or data archive. It is a data education center. We not only serve data, we TEACH data. Weather and climate data is the original "Big Data" dataset and lessons learned while playing with weather data are applicable to a wide range of data investigations. Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. Users can quickly find datasets by name or dataset ID number. They can also perform a faceted search that successively narrows the options by user requirements or simply kick off an indexed search with a few words. Weather data formats can be difficult to read for non-expert users; it's usually packed in binary formats requiring specialized software and parameter names use specialized vocabularies. DSs create detailed information pages for each dataset and maintain lists of helpful software, documentation and links of information around the web. We further grow the level of sophistication of the users with tips, tutorials and data stories on the RDA Blog, http://ncarrda.blogspot.com/. How-to video tutorials are also posted on the NCAR Computational and Information Systems

  5. Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Gislason, Henrik; Möllmann, C.

    2007-01-01

    reviewed. We then use recent regional - scale climate - ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity...... some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.......The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly...

  6. Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

    2013-01-01

    Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

  7. GPM GROUND VALIDATION NCAR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS PARTICLE PROBES MC3E V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation NCAR Cloud Microphysics Particle Probes MC3E dataset was collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E),...

  8. Interoperable Access to NCAR Research Data Archive Collections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, D.; Ji, Z.; Worley, S. J.; Manross, K.

    2014-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA) provides free access to 600+ observational and gridded dataset collections. The RDA is designed to support atmospheric and related sciences research, updated frequently where datasets have ongoing production, and serves data to 10,000 unique users annually. The traditional data access options include web-based direct archive file downloads, user selected data subsets and format conversions produced by server-side computations, and client and cURL-based APIs for routine scripted data retrieval. To enhance user experience and utility, the RDA now also offers THREDDS Data Server (TDS) access for many highly valued dataset collections. TDS offered datasets are presented as aggregations, enabling users to access an entire dataset collection, that can be comprised of 1000's of files, through a single virtual file. The OPeNDAP protocol, supported by the TDS, allows compatible tools to open and access these virtual files remotely, and make the native data file format transparent to the end user. The combined functionality (TDS/OPeNDAP) gives users the ability to browse, select, visualize, and download data from a complete dataset collection without having to transfer archive files to a local host. This presentation will review the TDS basics and describe the specific TDS implementation on the RDA's diverse archive of GRIB-1, GRIB-2, and gridded NetCDF formatted dataset collections. Potential future TDS implementation on in-situ observational dataset collections will be discussed. Illustrative sample cases will be used to highlight the end users benefits from this interoperable data access to the RDA.

  9. Communities' perception of climate change risks in South America's ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2014-08-15

    Aug 15, 2014 ... uses an Integrated Coastal Management approach and stakeholder perceptions of climate change risks to inform wetland management. ... has been made worse by extreme events tied to climate change. ... Related articles ...

  10. Recognizing Community Voice and a Youth-Led School-Community Partnership in the School Climate Improvement Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ice, Megan; Thapa, Amrit; Cohen, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    A growing body of school improvement research suggests that engaging all members of the school community, including community members and leaders, provides an essential foundation to successful school improvement efforts. School climate surveys to date tend to recognize student, parent/guardian, and school personnel voice but not the voice of…

  11. Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

  12. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  13. Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tozer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

  14. Life on thin ice: Insights from Uummannaq, Greenland for connecting climate science with Arctic communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baztan, Juan; Cordier, Mateo; Huctin, Jean-Michel; Zhu, Zhiwei; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

    2017-09-01

    What are the links between mainstream climate science and local community knowledge? This study takes the example of Greenland, considered one of the regions most impacted by climate change, and Inuit people, characterized as being highly adaptive to environmental change, to explore this question. The study is based on 10 years of anthropological participatory research in Uummannaq, Northwest Greenland, along with two fieldwork periods in October 2014 and April 2015, and a quantitative bibliometric analysis of the international literature on sea ice - a central subject of concern identified by Uummannaq community members during the fieldwork periods. Community members' perceptions of currently available scientific climate knowledge were also collected during the fieldwork. This was done to determine if community members consider available scientific knowledge salient and if it covers issues they consider relevant. The bibliometric analysis of the sea ice literature provided additional insight into the degree to which scientific knowledge about climate change provides information relevant for the community. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the missing connections between community worldviews, cultural values, livelihood needs, interests and climate science. Our results show that more scientific research efforts should consider local-level needs in order to produce local-scale knowledge that is more salient, credible and legitimate for communities experiencing climate change. In Uummannaq, as in many Inuit communities with similar conditions, more research should be done on sea ice thickness in winter and in areas through which local populations travel. This paper supports the growing evidence that whenever possible, climate change research should focus on environmental features that matter to communities, at temporal and spatial scales relevant to them, in order to foster community adaptations to change. We recommend such research be connected to and

  15. The Climate Literacy Network: Leveraging a Diverse Community to Broaden the Reach of Your Climate Literacy Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.; Carley, S.; Niepold, F.; Duggan-Haas, D. A.; Hollweg, K.; McCaffrey, M. S.

    2012-12-01

    There are a wide range of programs, activities, and projects focused on improving the understanding of climate science by citizens in a multitude of contexts. While most of these are necessarily customized for the particular audiences, communities, or regions they address, they can learn a lot from each other by sharing their experiences, expertise, and materials. The Climate Literacy Network (CLN, http://cleanet.org/cln), established in 2008 to facilitate the implementation of the Climate Literacy Essential Principles of Climate Science, is a diverse group of over 370 stakeholders with a wide range of expertise in, for example, science, policy, media, arts, economics, psychology, education, and social sciences. The CLN meets virtually weekly to share information about ongoing activities and new resources, discuss controversial public issues and ways to address them, get input from this diverse community on directions individual efforts might take, organize climate literacy sessions at professional meetings, provide input on documents relevant to climate literacy, and address common needs of the individual members. The weekly CLN teleconferences are also a venue for presentations from climate change education efforts to extend their reach and potential impact. The teleconferences are supported by an active listserv that is archived on the CLN website along with recordings of past teleconference and the schedule of upcoming teleconferences (http://cleanet.org/clean/community/cln/telecon_schedule.html). In this presentation we will describe the details of these various activities, give examples of how discussions within the CLN has led to funded efforts and expanded partnerships, and identify ways you can participate in and leverage this very active community.

  16. Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this

  17. Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness in Iran using NCEP/NCAR and GPCC datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Raziei

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness over Iran is investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset for the common period 1948–2007. The aim is to complement previous studies on the detection of long-term trends in drought/wetness time series and on the applicability of reanalysis data for drought monitoring in Iran. Climate conditions of the area are assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI on 24-month time scale, while Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Varimax rotation are used for investigating drought/wetness variability, and drought regionalization, respectively. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is applied to the time series of interest to extract the leading nonlinear components and compare them with linear fittings.

    Differences in drought and wetness area coverage resulting from the two datasets are discussed also in relation to the change occurred in recent years. NCEP/NCAR and GPCC are in good agreement in identifying four sub-regions as principal spatial modes of drought variability. However, the climate variability in each area is not univocally represented by the two datasets: a good agreement is found for south-eastern and north-western regions, while noticeable discrepancies occur for central and Caspian sea regions. A comparison with NCEP Reanalysis II for the period 1979–2007, seems to exclude that the discrepancies are merely due to the introduction of satellite data into the reanalysis assimilation scheme.

  18. Lichen communities as climate indicators in the U.S. Pacific States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert J. Smith; Sarah Jovan; Bruce. McCune

    2017-01-01

    Epiphytic lichens are bioindicators of climate, air quality, and other forest conditions and may reveal how forests will respond to global changes in the U.S. Pacific States of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. We explored climate indication with lichen communities surveyed by using both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Alaska...

  19. An Investigation of Students' Perceptions about Democratic School Climate and Sense of Community in School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakus, Memet

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to investigate students' perceptions about democratic school climate and sense of community in school. In line with this purpose, it aims to find answers to the following questions: How democratic do students find the school climate? What is students' sense of belonging level at school? What is the academic success level of…

  20. The Relationship between Campus Climate and the Teaching of Critical Thinking Skills in Community College Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Although critical thinking skills are important for all citizens participating in a democratic society, many community college students appear to lack these skills. This study addressed the apparent lack of research relating critical thinking instruction to campus climate. Critical thinking theory and Moos's organizational climate theory served as…

  1. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, John M; Jacob, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Tony; Loy, Raymond

    2007-01-01

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10 0 resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4 0 resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science

  2. Climate Change and Societal Response: Livelihoods, Communities, and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Joseph J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change may be considered a natural disaster evolving in slow motion on a global scale. Increasing storm intensities, shifting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and other manifold alterations are being experienced around the world. Climate has never been constant in any location, but human-induced changes associated…

  3. Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    First General Meeting : the Adaptation Network; We're Up to the Climate Challenge!, Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, 4 November 2009. Download PDF. Reports. South African National Networking Meeting on Climate Change Adaptation, the Airport Grand Hotel, Johannesburg, 18 June 2009. Download PDF ...

  4. Gender and climate change-induced conflict in pastoral communities

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Clitmate change-induced conflict is a major global threat to human security and the environment. It has been projected that there is going to be an increase in climate changes resulting in increased droughts and floods in northern Kenya. Climate change impacts will be differently distributed among different regions, ages, ...

  5. Climate Change and the Health of Indigenous Communities | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Indigenous people are among the most directly affected by climate change. Yet, there is limited understanding of the health dimensions of climate change and opportunities for adaptation among indigenous populations. Researchers have tended to focus on other vulnerable regions or on populations as a whole.

  6. Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

  7. Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvis Modikela Nkoana

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

  8. The European Community and climate protection. What's behind the ''empty rhetoric''?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringius, Lasse

    1999-10-01

    The EC has been hoping to play an environmental leadership role in the global climate negotiations and has been proposing comparatively stringent climate targets for the OECD countries. But especially the United States and to some extent the international environmental community have criticized the EC for being unable to develop effective climate policies that will achieve its ambitious targets. This publication shows that the EC in general expects that it is relatively inexpensive to implement climate policy within the EC and that its climate policy strategy from the beginning has been heavily influenced by the notion of environmental leadership. The defensive positions taken by the United States and Japan in the global climate negotiations have made EC environmental leadership seem simultaneously economically, environmentally and politically beneficial, and political and environmental interests have pushed EC climate policy to go further than what it otherwise would have been. (author)

  9. Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

  10. CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gukurume Simbarashe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

  11. Coaching small communities towards a climate stretegy plan -- experiences from Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gormsen, D. [City of Malmoe (Sweden). Environment Dept.

    2008-07-01

    Working on climate change mitigation and adaptation is often more difficult for small communities than is the case for larger cities. Smaller cities and towns may lack the resources and time to take up this work in a comprehensive manner, which is usually not prescribed as a local governmental task by national law but instead is performed voluntarily. In Sweden, applications for a national climate investment fund have shown that small and medium-sized communities are represented to a very small degree among applicants to the fund. To address this gap, the Swedish Network of Municipalities on Climate Change initiated a project called 'Climate coaching -- support to local activities on climate change in small communities', which started in January 2007. Twenty-three small communities joined the project that aims at the production of sustainable energy and the development of climate plans in at least 11 of the participants by September 2008. The remaining communities should by then at least be in the process of developing a climate strategy. The communities receive direct support from a climate coach who visits the communities, arranges seminars of common interest to the participants, and gives support via email and telephone. Additional support comes also from the existing Swedish Network of Municipalities on Climate Change and their 23 members. The results show so far that a number of factors are important for the success of local work. These include the following: The responsibility for the work has to be clear within the municipal organization; The responsible officers need to have time and resources which will allow them to work with climate issues; The politicians should support the commitment of the officers; and It is also important that attention is paid to the establishment of a suitable internal organization for climate mitigation and adaptation, and that this process is allowed to take time. When these issues are in place this will guarantee that

  12. Building climate change adaptation on community experiences: Lessons from community-based natural resource management in southern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chishakwe, Nyasha; Murray, Laurel; Chambwera, Muyeye

    2012-05-15

    This publication, produced in collaboration with WWF Southern Africa, looks at how community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) can inform and contribute to climate change adaptation at the community level, specifically to community-based adaptation (CBA) to climate change. It provides a framework for analysing the two approaches at conceptual and practical levels. Using case studies from southern Africa, the publication demonstrates the synergies between CBA and CBNRM, most important of which are the adaptation co-benefits between the two. While local incentives have driven community action in CBNRM, it is the evolution of an enabling environment in the region, in the form of institutions, policies, capacity and collaboration which characterises the scaling up of CBNRM to national and regional levels.

  13. Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites

  14. Adaptation to Climate Change in two Rural Communities on the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    -arid areas, and are largely dependent on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Already subject to episodic drought, increased climate variability is expected to exacerbate poverty and undermine socioeconomic gains made in ...

  15. Evaluation of the Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire in European community pharmacies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phipps, D.L.; Bie, J. de; Herborg, H.; Guerreiro, M.; Eickhoff, C.; Fernandes-Llimos, F.; Bouvy, M.L.; Rossing, C.; Mueller, U.; Ashcroft, D.M.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the internal reliability, factor structure and construct validity of the Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire (PSCQ) when applied to a pan-European sample of community pharmacies. Design: A cross-sectional survey design was used. Setting: Community pharmacies in Denmark,

  16. Change Orientations: The Effects of Organizational Climate on Principal, Teacher, and Community Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Page A.; Maika, Sean A.

    2008-01-01

    This research investigates the openness that teachers and principals have to change--specifically, the openness of the faculty to community pressure for change. Three dimensions of change are examined (teacher, principal, and community), as well as four aspects of organizational climate (institutional vulnerability, collegial leadership,…

  17. Perceptions of Campus Climate, Academic Efficacy and Academic Success among Community College Students: An Ethnic Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edman, Jeanne L.; Brazil, Brad

    2009-01-01

    The present study examined whether there are ethnic differences in perceptions of campus climate, social support, and academic efficacy among community college students, and whether student perceptions were associated with academic success. A total of 475 community college students completed a questionnaire that measured students' perceptions of…

  18. Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

  19. Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

  20. Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

    2010-01-01

    Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

  1. Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

    2015-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.

  2. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  3. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH): Implementing Unified Data Discovery and Access

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, D.; Worley, S. J.; Hou, C. Y.; Nienhouse, E.

    2017-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement an integrated single entry point for uniform digital asset discovery and access across the organization in order to improve the efficiency of access, reduce the costs, and establish the foundation for interoperability with other federated systems. This effort supports new policies included in federal funding mandates, NSF data management requirements, and journal citation recommendations. An inventory during the early planning stage identified diverse asset types across the organization that included publications, datasets, metadata, models, images, and software tools and code. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH) is being developed and phased in this year to improve the quality of users' experiences in finding and using these assets. DASH serves to provide engagement, training, search, and support through the following four nodes (see figure). DASH MetadataDASH provides resources for creating and cataloging metadata to the NCAR Dialect, a subset of ISO 19115. NMDEdit, an editor based on a European open source application, has been configured for manual entry of NCAR metadata. CKAN, an open source data portal platform, harvests these XML records (along with records output directly from databases) from a Web Accessible Folder (WAF) on GitHub for validation. DASH SearchThe NCAR Dialect metadata drives cross-organization search and discovery through CKAN, which provides the display interface of search results. DASH search will establish interoperability by facilitating metadata sharing with other federated systems. DASH ConsultingThe DASH Data Curation & Stewardship Coordinator assists with Data Management (DM) Plan preparation and advises on Digital Object Identifiers. The coordinator arranges training sessions on the DASH metadata tools and DM planning, and provides one-on-one assistance as requested. DASH Repository

  4. Testing cloud microphysics parameterizations in NCAR CAM5 with ISDAC and M-PACE observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaohong; Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Shi, Xiangjun; Wang, Zhien; Lin, Wuyin; Ghan, Steven J.; Earle, Michael; Liu, Peter S. K.; Zelenyuk, Alla

    2011-01-01

    Arctic clouds simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) are evaluated with observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), which were conducted at its North Slope of Alaska site in April 2008 and October 2004, respectively. Model forecasts for the Arctic spring and fall seasons performed under the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed framework generally reproduce the spatial distributions of cloud fraction for single-layer boundary-layer mixed-phase stratocumulus and multilayer or deep frontal clouds. However, for low-level stratocumulus, the model significantly underestimates the observed cloud liquid water content in both seasons. As a result, CAM5 significantly underestimates the surface downward longwave radiative fluxes by 20-40 W m-2. Introducing a new ice nucleation parameterization slightly improves the model performance for low-level mixed-phase clouds by increasing cloud liquid water content through the reduction of the conversion rate from cloud liquid to ice by the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process. The CAM5 single-column model testing shows that changing the instantaneous freezing temperature of rain to form snow from -5°C to -40°C causes a large increase in modeled cloud liquid water content through the slowing down of cloud liquid and rain-related processes (e.g., autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain). The underestimation of aerosol concentrations in CAM5 in the Arctic also plays an important role in the low bias of cloud liquid water in the single-layer mixed-phase clouds. In addition, numerical issues related to the coupling of model physics and time stepping in CAM5 are responsible for the model biases and will be explored in future studies.

  5. NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program: 2016 projects to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2016 the following projects will take place to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change: Climate and resilience-based...

  6. Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

  7. Increasing Communities Capacity to Effectively Address Climate Change Through Education, Civic Engagement and Workforce Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Ledley, T. S.; Stanton, C.; Fraser, J.; Scowcroft, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes, effects, risks, and developing the social will and skills for responses to global change is a major challenge of the 21st century that requires coordinated contributions from the sciences, social sciences, humanities, arts, and beyond. There have been many effective efforts to implement climate change education, civic engagement and related workforce development programs focused on a multitude of audiences, topics and in multiple regions. This talk will focus on how comprehensive educational efforts across our communities are needed to support cities and their primary industries as they prepare for, and embrace, a low-carbon economy and develop the related workforce.While challenges still exist in identifying and coordinating all stakeholders, managing and leveraging resources, and resourcing and scaling effective programs to increase impact and reach, climate and energy literacy leaders have developed initiatives with broad input to identify the understandings and structures for climate literacy collective impact and to develop regional/metropolitan strategy that focuses its collective impact efforts on local climate issues, impacts and opportunities. This Climate Literacy initiative envisions education as a central strategy for community's civic actions in the coming decades by key leaders who have the potential to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities to seize opportunity and prosperity in a post-carbon and resilient future. This talk discusses the advances and collaborations in the Climate Change Education community over the last decade by U.S. federal and non-profit organization that have been made possible through the partnerships of the Climate Literacy & Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, and the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative.

  8. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  9. Leveraging federal science data and tools to help communities & business build climate resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, D.

    2016-12-01

    Decision-makers in every sector and region of the United States are seeking actionable science-based information to help them understand and manage their climate-related risks. Translating data, tools and information from the domain of climate science to the domains of municipal, social, and economic decision-making raises complex questions—e.g., how to communicate causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to show projections of plausible future climate scenarios; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities facing communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans. These are the types of challenges being addressed by a public-private partnership of federal agencies, academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and private businesses that are contributing to the development of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov), a new website designed to help people build resilience to extreme events caused by both natural climate variability and long-term climate change. The site's Climate Explorer is designed to help people understand potential climate conditions over the course of this century. It offers easy access to downloadable maps, graphs, and data tables of observed and projected temperature, precipitation and other decision-relevant climate variables dating back to 1950 and out to 2100. Of course, climate change is only one of many variables affecting decisions about the future so the Toolkit also ties climate information to a wide range of other relevant tools and information to help users to explore their vulnerabilities and risks. In this session, we will describe recent enhancements to the Toolkit, lessons learned from user engagements, and evidence that our approach of coupling scientific information with actionable decision-making processes is helping Americans build resilience to climate-related impacts.

  10. Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

  11. Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shales, J.

    1994-01-01

    Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO 2 , the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO 2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners

  12. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

  13. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  14. Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

    2013-06-01

    Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities of Prairie-Pothole wetlands and lakes under a changed climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Kyle I.; Mushet, David M.; Renton, David A.; Stockwell, Craig A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities respond to changes in climate is important for biodiversity conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region and other wetland-rich landscapes. We sampled macroinvertebrate communities of 162 wetlands and lakes previously sampled from 1966 to 1976, a much drier period compared to our 2012–2013 sampling timeframe. To identify possible influences of a changed climate and predation pressures on macroinvertebrates, we compared two predictors of aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities: ponded-water dissolved-ion concentration and vertebrate-predator presence/abundance. Further, we make inferences of how macroinvertebrate communities were structured during the drier period when the range of dissolved-ion concentrations was much greater and fish occurrence in aquatic habitats was rare. We found that aquatic-macroinvertebrate community structure was influenced by dissolved-ion concentrations through a complex combination of direct and indirect relationships. Ion concentrations also influenced predator occurrence and abundance, which indirectly affected macroinvertebrate communities. It is important to consider both abiotic and biotic gradients when predicting how invertebrate communities will respond to climate change. Generally, in the wetlands and lakes we studied, freshening of ponded water resulted in more homogenous communities than occurred during a much drier period when salinity range among sites was greater.

  16. Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

    2012-12-01

    The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key

  17. A systematic approach to community resilience that reduces the federal fiscal exposure to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stwertka, C.; Albert, M. R.; White, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    Despite widely available information about the adverse impacts of climate change to the public, including both private sector and federal fiscal exposure, there remain opportunities to effectively translate this knowledge into action. Further delay of climate preparedness and resilience actions imposes a growing toll on American communities and the United States fiscal budget. We hypothesize that a set of four criteria must be met before a community can translate climate disturbances into preparedness action. We examine four case studies to review these proposed criteria, we discuss the critical success factors that can build community resilience, and we define an operational strategy that could support community resilience while reducing the federal fiscal exposure to climate change. This operational strategy defines a community response system that integrates social science research, builds on the strengths of different sectors, values existing resources, and reduces the planning-to-action time. Our next steps are to apply this solution in the field, and to study the dynamics of community engagement and the circular economy.

  18. Coastal community resilience in climate adaptation and risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mie; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    that neither the community nor the municipality perceives floods as any immediate threat. Municipal adaptation planning is slowly forming but hitherto without engaging the local community, and the town has no formal emergency preparedness plan. In contrast, the medieval town of Løgstør last experienced severe......, have different resilience strengths and limitations inherent. Thyborøn emerged over the past century as a fisheries town protected from the North Sea by large sea dikes constructed by the national government. Life in a harsh physical environment and no significant flood accounts in decades, means...... floods in 1981 and 2005 which led to the construction of a sea wall, community involvement, and detailed emergency management setup. The Thyborøn community has a reputation of ‘acting on their own’ and the citizens do not –neither individually nor collectively, ask e.g., the municipality for assistance...

  19. Indigenous knowledge of Rural Communities for Combating Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HP

    and extremes, suppress diseases and crop pests and usd to conserve soil moisture so as to increase ..... materials such as leaves, grass clippings, kitchen scraps and yard wastes. As a result, ... consumption in urban and rural communities.

  20. Engaging Key Stakeholders in Climate Change: A Community-Based Project for Youth-Led Participatory Climate Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trott, Carlie D.

    Few studies have examined how youth think about, and take action on climate change and far fewer have sought to facilitate their engagement using participatory methods. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of Science, Camera, Action! (SCA), a novel after-school program that combined climate change education with participatory action through photovoice. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) Evaluate the impacts of SCA on youth participants' climate change knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors; (2) Examine how SCA participation served to empower youth agency; and (3) Explore SCA's influence on youths' science engagement. Participants were 55 youths (ages 10 to 12) across three Boys and Girls Club sites in Northern Colorado. SCA's Science component used interactive activities to demonstrate the interrelationships between Earth's changing climate, ecosystems, and sustainable actions within communities. Photovoice, SCA's Camera component, was used to explore youths' climate change perspectives and to identify opportunities for their active engagement. Finally, SCA's Action component aimed to cultivate youth potential as agents of change in their families and communities through the development and implementation of youth-led action projects. Action projects included local policy advocacy, a tree-planting campaign, a photo gallery opening, development of a website, and the establishment of a Boys and Girls Club community garden. To evaluate SCA impacts, a combination of survey and focus group methods were used. Following the program, youth demonstrated increased knowledge of the scientific and social dimensions of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as its solutions through human action. Though participants expressed a mix of positive (e.g., hope) and negative (e.g., sadness) emotions about climate change, they left the program with an increased sense of respect for nature, an enhanced sense of environmental responsibility, and a greater sense

  1. Phenological Characterization of Desert Sky Island Vegetation Communities with Remotely Sensed and Climate Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Marsh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.

  2. Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

    2016-03-01

    This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

  3. Correlation between asthma and climate in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlato, Giuseppe; Calabrese, Rolando; De Marco, Roberto

    2002-01-01

    The European Community Respiratory Health Survey, performed during 1991-1993, found a remarkable geographical variability in the prevalence of asthma and asthma-like symptoms in individuals aged 20-44 yr. The highest values occurred in the English-speaking centers. In the present investigation, the ecological relationship between climate and symptom prevalence was evaluated in the 48 centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Meteorological variables were derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network and were averaged over an 11-yr period (i.e., 1980-1990). Respiratory symptom prevalence was directly related to temperature in the coldest month and was related inversely to the temperature in the hottest month. Warm winters and cool summers are features of oceanic climate found in most English-speaking centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (i.e., England, New Zealand, and Oregon). In conclusion, climate can account for significant geographic variability in respiratory symptom prevalence.

  4. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, John M [Computer Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Jacob, Robert [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Craig, Tony [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Loy, Raymond [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States)

    2007-07-15

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10{sup 0} resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4{sup 0} resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science.

  5. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  6. Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyrer, Frederick; Cloern, James E; Brown, Larry R; Fish, Maxfield A; Hieb, Kathryn A; Baxter, Randall D

    2015-10-01

    Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.

  8. Community functional responses to soil and climate at multiple spatial scales: when does intraspecific variation matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Siefert

    Full Text Available Despite increasing evidence of the importance of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities, its role in community trait responses to environmental variation, particularly along broad-scale climatic gradients, is poorly understood. We analyzed functional trait variation among early-successional herbaceous plant communities (old fields across a 1200-km latitudinal extent in eastern North America, focusing on four traits: vegetative height, leaf area, specific leaf area (SLA, and leaf dry matter content (LDMC. We determined the contributions of species turnover and intraspecific variation to between-site functional dissimilarity at multiple spatial scales and community trait responses to edaphic and climatic factors. Among-site variation in community mean trait values and community trait responses to the environment were generated by a combination of species turnover and intraspecific variation, with species turnover making a greater contribution for all traits. The relative importance of intraspecific variation decreased with increasing geographic and environmental distance between sites for SLA and leaf area. Intraspecific variation was most important for responses of vegetative height and responses to edaphic compared to climatic factors. Individual species displayed strong trait responses to environmental factors in many cases, but these responses were highly variable among species and did not usually scale up to the community level. These findings provide new insights into the role of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities and the factors controlling its relative importance. The contribution of intraspecific variation to community trait responses was greatest at fine spatial scales and along edaphic gradients, while species turnover dominated at broad spatial scales and along climatic gradients.

  9. Science, Practitioners and Faith Communities: using TEK and Faith Knowledge to address climate issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, K.

    2017-12-01

    Worldview, Lifeway and Science - Communities that are tied to the land or water for their livelihood, and for whom subsistence guides their cultural lifeway, have knowledges that inform their interactions with the environment. These frameworks, sometimes called Traditional Ecological Knowledges (TEK), are based on generations of observations made and shared within lived life-environmental systems, and are tied to practitioners' broader worldviews. Subsistence communities, including Native American tribes, are well aware of the crises caused by climate change impacts. These communities are working on ways to integrate knowledge from their ancient ways with current observations and methods from Western science to implement appropriate adaptation and resilience measures. In the delta region of south Louisiana, the communities hold worldviews that blend TEK, climate science and faith-derived concepts. It is not incongruent for the communities to intertwine conversations from complex and diverse sources, including the academy, to inform their adaptation measures and their imagined solutions. Drawing on over twenty years of work with local communities, science organizations and faith institutions of the lower bayou region of Louisiana, the presenter will address the complexity of traditional communities' work with diverse sources of knowledge to guide local decision-making and to assist outside partners to more effectively address challenges associated with climate change.

  10. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

    2007-01-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  11. Perception, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Irrigated Paddy Farmer Community to Face Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siska Rasiska Suantapura

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has a real impact on the condition of agriculture in developing countries, including Indonesia. Irrigated paddy farmers are the ones really feeling the impact of climate change. Therefore, we need to understand the perceptions, mitigation and adaptation strategies of irrigated paddy farmer community to face climate change. The study is conducted in Indramayu and Tasikmalaya Regency in West Java by using descriptive survey method, regression analysis and path analysis through Structural Equation Modelling approach with Lisrel TM 8.5. The results showes that: (1 changes to climate variability affects the productivity of rice; (2 perception of irrigated paddy farmer community on climate change and its affects are influenced by internal and external factors; and (3 adaptation strategy are influenced by internal and external factors, whereas no mitigation strategy. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation strategies with site specific location are very necessary improving climate information services, increasing empowerment of farmers through field schools, and providing the provision of facilities that are practical and adaptive to climate.

  12. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-02-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

  14. Performance Evaluation of a Hot-Humid Climate Community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osser, R. [Building Science Corporation, Somerville, MA (United States); Kerrigan, P. [Building Science Corporation, Somerville, MA (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This report describes the Project Home Again community in New Orleans, a new development for high-performance, affordable homes for residents who lost their homes to Hurricane Katrina. Building Science Corporation acted as a consultant for the project, advocating design strategies for durability, flood resistance, occupant comfort, and low energy use while maintaining cost effectiveness.

  15. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan

    2018-01-01

    Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind...... plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic...... turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our...

  16. Building adaptive capacity to climate change in tropical coastal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinner, Joshua E.; Adger, W. Neil; Allison, Edward H.; Barnes, Michele L.; Brown, Katrina; Cohen, Philippa J.; Gelcich, Stefan; Hicks, Christina C.; Hughes, Terry P.; Lau, Jacqueline; Marshall, Nadine A.; Morrison, Tiffany H.

    2018-01-01

    To minimize the impacts of climate change on human wellbeing, governments, development agencies, and civil society organizations have made substantial investments in improving people's capacity to adapt to change. Yet to date, these investments have tended to focus on a very narrow understanding of adaptive capacity. Here, we propose an approach to build adaptive capacity across five domains: the assets that people can draw upon in times of need; the flexibility to change strategies; the ability to organize and act collectively; learning to recognize and respond to change; and the agency to determine whether to change or not.

  17. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  18. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  19. Climate interacts with soil to produce beta diversity in Californian plant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Going, B M; Harrison, S P; Anacker, B L; Safford, H D

    2013-09-01

    Spatially distinct communities can arise through interactions and feedbacks between abiotic and biotic factors. We suggest that, for plants, patches of infertile soils such as serpentine may support more distinct communities from those in the surrounding non-serpentine matrix in regions where the climate is more productive (i.e., warmer and/or wetter). Where both soil fertility and climatic productivity are high, communities may be dominated by plants with fast-growing functional traits, whereas where either soils or climate impose low productivity, species with stress-tolerant functional traits may predominate. As a result, both species and functional composition may show higher dissimilarity between patch and matrix in productive climates. This pattern may be reinforced by positive feedbacks, in which higher plant growth under favorable climate and soil conditions leads to higher soil fertility, further enhancing plant growth. For 96 pairs of sites across a 200-km latitudinal gradient in California, we found that the species and functional dissimilarities between communities on infertile serpentine and fertile non-serpentine soils were higher in more productive (wetter) regions. Woody species had more stress-tolerant functional traits on serpentine than non-serpentine soil, and as rainfall increased, woody species functional composition changed toward fast-growing traits on non-serpentine, but not on serpentine soils. Soil organic matter increased with rainfall, but only on non-serpentine soils, and the difference in organic matter between soils was positively correlated with plant community dissimilarity. These results illustrate a novel mechanism wherein climatic productivity is associated with higher species, functional, and landscape-level dissimilarity (beta diversity).

  20. Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock

  1. Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

    2015-01-01

    The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Acting Globally: Cultivating a thousand community solutions for climate justice

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanna Di Chiro

    2011-01-01

    Giovanna Di Chiro is Director of Environmental Programs at Nuestras Raíces, Inc. and Research Associate at the Five College Women's Studies Research Center. She has published widely on the intersections of race, gender, and environmental justice with a focus on women's activism and policy change addressing environmental health disparities in lower income communities. She is completing a book Embodied Ecologies: Science, Politics, and Environmental Justice. Her current work examines environmen...

  3. Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weedon, James T; Kowalchuk, George A; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F M; van Bodegom, Peter M

    2017-01-01

    The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50-100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12-15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7-11%) > climate treatment (4-9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates-evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

  4. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  5. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Pearce

    Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  6. Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

    2015-01-01

    The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

  7. Responses of redwood soil microbial community structure and N transformations to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon C. Bradbury; Mary K. Firestone

    2012-01-01

    Soil microorganisms perform critical ecosystem functions, including decomposition, nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification. Soil temperature and water availability can be critical determinants of the rates of these processes as well as microbial community composition and structure. This research examined how changes in climate affect bacterial and fungal...

  8. Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeppesen, E.; Meerhoff, M.; Holmgren, K.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; Declerck, Steven A.J.; De Meester, L.; Søndergaard, M.; Lauridsen, T.; Bjerring, R.; Conde-Porcuna, J-M.; Mazzeo, N.; Iglesias, C.; Reizenstein, M.; Malmquist, H.J.; Liu, Z.; Balayla, D.; Lazzaro, X.

    2010-01-01

    Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation

  9. Profiling climate change vulnerability of forest indigenous communities in the Congo Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nkem, J.N.; Somorin, O.A.; Jum, C.; Idinoba, M.E.; Bele, Y.M.; Sonwa, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    The livelihood strategies of indigenous communities in the Congo Basin are inseparable from the forests, following their use of forest ecosystem goods and services (FEGS). Climate change is expected to exert impacts on the forest and its ability to provide FEGS. Thus, human livelihoods that depend

  10. Perceptions of climate change by highland communities in the Nepal Himalaya

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uprety, Y.; Shrestha, U. B.; Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Shrestha, S.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Thakali, A.; Cockfield, G.; Asselin, H.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 7 (2017), s. 649-661 ISSN 1756-5529 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-10280S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * local communities * traditional knowledge Subject RIV: EF - Botanics OBOR OECD: Plant sciences, botany Impact factor: 2.051, year: 2016

  11. Perceptions of climate change by highland communities in the Nepal Himalaya

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uprety, Y.; Shrestha, U. B.; Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Shrestha, S.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Thakali, A.; Cockfield, G.; Asselin, H.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 7 (2017), s. 649-661 ISSN 1756-5529 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate change * local communities * Himalaya * Nepal * traditional knowledge Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 2.051, year: 2016

  12. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  13. The Brazilian freshwater wetscape: Changes in tree community diversity and composition on climatic and geographic gradients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Wittmann

    Full Text Available Wetlands harbor an important compliment of regional plant diversity, but in many regions data on wetland diversity and composition is still lacking, thus hindering our understanding of the processes that control it. While patterns of broad-scale terrestrial diversity and composition typically correlate with contemporary climate it is not clear to what extent patterns in wetlands are complimentary, or conflicting. To elucidate this, we consolidate data from wetland forest inventories in Brazil and examine patterns of diversity and composition along temperature and rainfall gradients spanning five biomes. We collated 196 floristic inventories covering an area >220 ha and including >260,000 woody individuals. We detected a total of 2,453 tree species, with the Amazon alone accounting for nearly half. Compositional patterns indicated differences in freshwater wetland floras among Brazilian biomes, although biomes with drier, more seasonal climates tended to have a larger proportion of more widely distributed species. Maximal alpha diversity increased with annual temperature, rainfall, and decreasing seasonality, patterns broadly consistent with upland vegetation communities. However, alpha diversity-climate relationships were only revealed at higher diversity values associated with the uppermost quantiles, and in most sites diversity varied irrespective of climate. Likewise, mean biome-level differences in alpha-diversity were unexpectedly modest, even in comparisons of savanna-area wetlands to those of nearby forested regions. We describe attenuated wetland climate-diversity relationships as a shifting balance of local and regional effects on species recruitment. Locally, excessive waterlogging strongly filters species able to colonize from regional pools. On the other hand, increased water availability can accommodate a rich community of drought-sensitive immigrant species that are able to track buffered wetland microclimates. We argue that

  14. Challenges of Climate Change: Resilience Efforts in Rural Communities of Kaliwlingi Village based on Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Tangguh (PKPT) Program

    OpenAIRE

    Mustovia Azahro; Angga Dwisapta Ardi

    2017-01-01

    Kaliwlingi Village in Brebes City has experienced climate change impacts such as tidal flood and land abrasion. The climate change causes the dynamics of the coast and sea levels dramatically and fosters the coastal communities to have adaptation strategies. This paper aims to identify how the community of Kaliwlingi Village adapts to the climate change that affects to a social economic condition of the inhabitants. The study used qualitative method by interpreting data taken from Pengembanga...

  15. Signals of Climate Change in Butterfly Communities in a Mediterranean Protected Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zografou, Konstantina; Kati, Vassiliki; Grill, Andrea; Wilson, Robert J.; Tzirkalli, Elli; Pamperis, Lazaros N.; Halley, John M.

    2014-01-01

    The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be

  16. Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zografou, Konstantina; Kati, Vassiliki; Grill, Andrea; Wilson, Robert J; Tzirkalli, Elli; Pamperis, Lazaros N; Halley, John M

    2014-01-01

    The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012) and short-term (2011-2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be devised.

  17. Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantina Zografou

    Full Text Available The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012 and short-term (2011-2012 changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012 in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year. Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012 variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be

  18. Gaining trust from the scientific climate change community and increasing the visibility of their data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeil, B.; Diepenbroek, M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate science has a major impact not just within the field, but also has immediate significant societal and economic implications. Scientists are well aware that their research results may be discussed by policy-makers and the media, sometimes with hostile intent from climate science deniers. Sustainable and scrutinized data management is the backbone for future scientific research and vital to maintain the integrity and reputation of the climate science community. In 2009 a lack of openness regarding data acquisition data treatment was one of the main factors in Climategate that severely damaged the community's image - and efficient data sharing and management can prevent this in the future. Data repositories can only operate effectively if they have the trust of their users: this includes both the data providers and data users. Both groups have to be assured that data treatment and quality control follows internationally agreed SOPs (standard operating procedures), is transparent, documented and traceable. Users want easy access to data and have to be assured that data is citable, allows reproducibility and can be used with confidence, which requires that both the data and accompanying metadata are of the highest possible quality. Building up trust from both communities takes time and requires collaboration, getting feedback from the community and addressing their needs. This presentation will show the basic needs and challenges for data repositories, and will illustrate how the marine carbon climate change community has successfully addressed these through the SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas) project. The project actively involves both data providers and users throughout the design and implementation of their infrastructures. Scientists are directly involved in quality control of the data and metadata, increasing trust in the data and encouraging international collaboration, which in turn increases the visibility of both the community and its data.

  19. Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

    2016-12-01

    As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

  20. Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

  1. Temperature adaptation of soil bacterial communities along an Antarctic climate gradient: predicting responses to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Rousk, Johannes; Yergeau, Etienne

    2009-01-01

     °38'W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76'S 59 °03'W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell-field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment...

  2. Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

    2016-03-15

    Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

  3. Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

  4. Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

  5. Decision-Makers As Messengers Of Climate Change Impacts And Ambassadors For Their Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudrias, M. A.; DeBenedict, C.; Bruce, L.; Estrada, M.; Hedge, N.; Silva-Send, N. J.

    2016-12-01

    Over the past several years there have been many coordinated efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging with a goal to reach solutions and build community resilience. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has employed a multidisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, social and learning sciences and effective communication strategies to create innovative resources and new approaches to climate change communication in order to engage audiences more effectively. We have interviewed over 140 key San Diego leaders and invited them to serve as ambassadors to the project by engaging them directly in the creation of a variety of innovative educational resources as well as serving as spokespersons for outreach activities. Our program has evolved from having only scientists, educators and community practitioners serve as presenters to strategically and deliberately engaging a mix of scientists, educators and decision makers as the conveyers of key messages. Our protocol for events includes preparing all speakers in advance, researching our audience, creating a script, immediate debriefs of each activity and a qualitative and quantitative assessment of each event. Two examples of this integrated approach will show how to engage decision-makers more deeply: (1) coastal flooding tour as a place-based activity and (2) impact videos that blend climate science, local personal stories and key messages from decision makers themselves. For climate change communication to be successful in the future, we will need creative and coordinated approaches.

  6. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Contributions of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation, Large-Scale Circulation, and Shallow Cumulus Detrainment to Cloud Phase Transition in Mixed-Phase Clouds with NCAR CAM5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds consisting of both liquid and ice water occur frequently at high-latitudes and in mid-latitude storm track regions. This type of clouds has been shown to play a critical role in the surface energy balance, surface air temperature, and sea ice melting in the Arctic. Cloud phase partitioning between liquid and ice water determines the cloud optical depth of mixed-phase clouds because of distinct optical properties of liquid and ice hydrometeors. The representation and simulation of cloud phase partitioning in state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are associated with large biases. In this study, the cloud phase partition in mixed-phase clouds simulated from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) is evaluated against satellite observations. Observation-based supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) is calculated from CloudSat, MODIS and CPR radar detected liquid and ice water paths for clouds with cloud-top temperatures between -40 and 0°C. Sensitivity tests with CAM5 are conducted for different heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations with respect to aerosol influence (Wang et al., 2014), different phase transition temperatures for detrained cloud water from shallow convection (Kay et al., 2016), and different CAM5 model configurations (free-run versus nudged winds and temperature, Zhang et al., 2015). A classical nucleation theory-based ice nucleation parameterization in mixed-phase clouds increases the SLF especially at temperatures colder than -20°C, and significantly improves the model agreement with observations in the Arctic. The change of transition temperature for detrained cloud water increases the SLF at higher temperatures and improves the SLF mostly over the Southern Ocean. Even with the improved SLF from the ice nucleation and shallow cumulus detrainment, the low SLF biases in some regions can only be improved through the improved circulation with the nudging technique. Our study highlights the challenges of

  8. Response of carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.

    2009-12-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.

  9. Differences in Certification and the Effect on Team Climate Among Community Health Workers in Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemon, Mark; Kreglo, Brenna; Boursaw, Blake

    The purpose of this study was to compare team climate among Texas community health workers (CHWs)/promotoras who were certified by the 2 different methods: (a) completing a state-approved training program, and (b) providing evidence of work experience (grandfathering). Analysis of survey results found no significant differences in Team Climate Inventory scores between CHWs who were certified either through state-approved training or through work experience. This research provides some preliminary evidence in support of experience-based certification, but there continues to be a need for more research evaluating CHW certification requirements and the impact of state certification of CHWs on population health outcomes.

  10. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nufio, César R; McGuire, Chris R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

    2010-09-23

    The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology. This study utilizes past (1959-1960) and present (2006-2008) surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m), A1 (2195 m), B1 (2591 m), and C1 (3048 m), located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1) warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs) associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season. Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger process

  11. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César R Nufio

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology.This study utilizes past (1959-1960 and present (2006-2008 surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m, A1 (2195 m, B1 (2591 m, and C1 (3048 m, located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1 warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season.Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger

  12. Innovative Strategies for Building Community Resilience: Lessons from the Frontlines of Climate Change Capacity-Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrash Walton, A.

    2017-12-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that climate change is occurring; however, there is limited implementation of measures to create resilient local communities (Abrash Walton, Simpson, Rhoades, & Daniels, 2016; Adger, Arnell, & Tompkins, 2005; Glavovic & Smith, 2014; Moser & Ekstrom, 2010; Picketts, Déry, & Curry, 2014). Communities that are considered climate leaders in the United States may have adopted climate change plans, yet few have actually implemented the policies, projects and recommendations in those plans. A range of innovative, education strategies have proven effective in building the capacity of local decision makers to strengthen community resilience. This presentation draws on the results of two years of original research regarding the information and support local decision makers require for effective action. Findings are based on information from four datasets, with more than 600 respondents from 48 U.S. states and 19 other countries working on local adaptation in a range of capacities. These research results can inform priority setting for public policy, budget setting, and action as well as private sector funding and investment. The presentation will focus, in particular, on methods and results of a pioneering Facilitated Community of Practice model (FCoP) for building climate preparedness and community resilience capacity, among local-level decision makers. The FCoP process includes group formation and shared capacity building experience. The process can also support collective objective setting and creation of structures and processes for ongoing sustainable collaboration. Results from two FCoPs - one fully online and the other hybrid - suggest that participants viewed the interpersonal and technical assistance elements of the FCoP as highly valuable. These findings suggest that there is an important need for facilitated networking and other relational aspects of building capacity among those advancing resilience at the local level.

  13. Transdisciplinarity Within the North American Climate Change Mitigation Research Community, Specifically the Carbon Dioxide Capture, Transportation, Utilization and Storage Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Steven Michael

    This research investigates the existence of and potential challenges to the development of a transdisciplinary approach to the climate change mitigation technology research focusing on carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in North America. The unprecedented challenge of global climate change is one that invites a transdisciplinary approach. The challenge of climate change mitigation requires an understanding of multiple disciplines, as well as the role that complexity, post-normal or post-modern science, and uncertainty play in combining these various disciplines. This research followed the general discourse of transdisciplinarity as described by Klein (2014) and Augsburg (2016) which describe it as using transcendence, problem solving, and transgression to address wicked, complex societal problems, and as taught by California School of Transdisciplinarity, where the research focuses on sustainability in the age of post-normal science (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993). Through the use of electronic surveys and semi-structured interviews, members of the North American climate change mitigation research community shared their views and understanding of transdisciplinarity (Kvale & Brinkmann, 2009). The data indicate that much of the research currently being conducted by members of the North American CCUS research community is in fact transdisciplinary. What is most intriguing is the manner in which researchers arrived at their current understanding of transdisciplinarity, which is in many cases without any foreknowledge or use of the term transdisciplinary. The data reveals that in many cases the researchers now understand that this transdisciplinary approach is borne out of personal beliefs or emotion, social or societal aspects, their educational process, the way in which they communicate, and in most cases, the CCUS research itself, that require this transdisciplinary approach, but had never thought about giving it a name or understanding its origin or

  14. Climate Feedback: Bringing the Scientific Community to Provide Direct Feedback on the Credibility of Climate Media Coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, E. M.; Matlock, T.; Westerling, A. L.

    2015-12-01

    While most scientists recognize climate change as a major societal and environmental issue, social and political will to tackle the problem is still lacking. One of the biggest obstacles is inaccurate reporting or even outright misinformation in climate change coverage that result in the confusion of the general public on the issue.In today's era of instant access to information, what we read online usually falls outside our field of expertise and it is a real challenge to evaluate what is credible. The emerging technology of web annotation could be a game changer as it allows knowledgeable individuals to attach notes to any piece of text of a webpage and to share them with readers who will be able to see the annotations in-context -like comments on a pdf.Here we present the Climate Feedback initiative that is bringing together a community of climate scientists who collectively evaluate the scientific accuracy of influential climate change media coverage. Scientists annotate articles sentence by sentence and assess whether they are consistent with scientific knowledge allowing readers to see where and why the coverage is -or is not- based on science. Scientists also summarize the essence of their critical commentary in the form of a simple article-level overall credibility rating that quickly informs readers about the credibility of the entire piece.Web-annotation allows readers to 'hear' directly from the experts and to sense the consensus in a personal way as one can literaly see how many scientists agree with a given statement. It also allows a broad population of scientists to interact with the media, notably early career scientists.In this talk, we will present results on the impacts annotations have on readers -regarding their evaluation of the trustworthiness of the information they read- and on journalists -regarding their reception of scientists comments.Several dozen scientists have contributed to this effort to date and the system offers potential to

  15. Creating a Partnering Community Aimed to Foster Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, D.; McNeal, K. S.; Smith, R.; Hare, D.; Nair, U. S.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast through crafting a shared vision and strategic plan among stakeholders that promotes scientific formal and informal educational resources, materials and programs; a diverse network of key partnering organizations throughout the Southeastern United States (SE US); and effective public dialogues that address diverse learners and audiences and supports learning of climate, climate change, and its relevance upon human and environmental systems. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with more than fifty key stakeholders that stem from a few key publics such as agriculture, education, leisure, religious organizations, and culturally diverse communities. These key publics in the SE US frequently consist of individuals that place great trust in local, private efforts, and CLiPSE has realized the importance of the role of the partnering organizations in providing information through a trusted source. A second unique characteristic of the SE US is the predominately conservative and Protestant citizenry in the region. Working with and through these communities enhances climate change education outreach to this citizenry. The CLiPSE project rests on solid climate science and learning science research in order to formulate an effective plan with desired learning outcomes of critical thinking and civil conversation through effective communication strategies. This paper will present the CLiPSE model in reaching the key publics that traditionally hold ideologies that are traditionally perceived as incompatible with climate change science. We will present the strategies utilized to bring together experts and researchers in climate science, learning science, and social science with

  16. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  17. Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefort, Stelly; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Arsouze, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Maury, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES)--ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size-structured bio-energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES-APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body-size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body-size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low- and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body-size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body-size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body-size organisms might be

  18. A Model for Teaching a Climate Change Elective Science Course at the Community College Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandia, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    The impact of global climate change is far-reaching, both for humanity and for the environment. It is essential that our students be provided a strong scientific background for the role of natural and human caused climate change so that they are better prepared to become involved in the discussion. Here the author reveals a successful model designed for use with a diverse student body at the community college level. Teaching strategies beyond the traditional lecture and exam style include: web-based resources such as static websites along with dynamic blogging tools, post-lecture cooperative learning review sessions, weekly current event research projects, use of rubrics to assist students in their own project evaluation before submission, and a research paper utilizing the Skeptical Science website to examine the validity of the most common climate change myths.

  19. Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

    2017-11-14

    Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  20. Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sejabaledi A. Rankoana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Perceptions of climate change by rural communities are centered on observations of variations in temperature and rainfall patterns supported by observations and projections on climate alterations in the form of increased temperatures and scarce rainfall by scientists worldwide. The present study documented perceptions of climate variation and the community’s ability to adapt to climate change hazards threatening the production of subsistence crops. Data were collected through interactions with 100 participants. In the study, climate change is explained as variations in temperature and rainfall patterns which resulted in excessive heat, erratic rainfall patterns and drought negatively impacting on subsistence crop production. Community members have the potential to limit the impacts of climate hazards on subsistence crop production. The negative impacts of climate hazards are limited by community members’ indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction, the seasons, crop diversification and mixed cropping. Mulching and the application of kraal manure improve the soil structure and fertility to reduce crop failure. These adaptation measures are resilient to the negative impact of climate hazards and may be helpful in the development of adaptation policies to assist rural communities vulnerable to climate change hazards.

  1. Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)--A Gulf of Mexico Education Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, S. H.; Stone, D.; Schultz, T.; LeBlanc, T.; Miller-Way, T.; Estrada, P.

    2012-12-01

    This five-year, Gulf of Mexico regional collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Office of Education and represents a successful grant submitted by the FL Aquarium as a member of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA). This climate change effort focuses on enhanced content knowledge and the manner in which personal actions and behaviors contribute to sustainability and stewardship. Diverse audiences—represented by visitors at the informal centers listed above—have been and are involved in the following activities: social networking via responses to climate change surveys; an "ocean and climate change defender" computer game, specifically designed for this project; an average of 10 annual outreach events implemented by these facilities at community festivals; climate change lectures provided to family audiences; and professional development workshops for informal and formal educators. This presentation will provide opportunities and challenges encountered during the first two years of implementation. This regional effort is also aligned with both the Ocean Literacy: Essential Principles and the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles. Additional partners include: Normandeau Associates, Conservation Enterprises, Unlimited, and Mindclay Creative.

  2. Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

    2016-10-01

    Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

  3. Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pratiksha Sharma

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception and adaptation strategies followed by different farmers of world including Chepang is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

  4. Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.

  5. Climate Effects on Plant Range Distributions and Community Structure of Pacific Northwest Prairies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bridgham, Scott D. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States); Johnson, Bart [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2013-09-26

    was negatively impacted by increased temperatures, but for species planted north of their current range, increased temperature was neutral. However, for surviving plants climate treatments and site-specific factors (e.g., nutrient availability) were the strongest predictors of plant growth and seed set. When recruitment and plant growth are considered together, increased temperatures are negative within a species current range but beyond this range they become positive. Germination was the most critical stage for plant response across all sites and climate treatments. Our results underscore the importance of including plant vital rates into models that are examining climate change effects on plant ranges. Warming altered plant community composition, decreased diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities over time becoming more like ambient communities further south. In particular, warming increased the cover of annual introduced species, suggesting that the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing invasion by this plant functional group in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south is at least in part due to climate. Our results suggest that with the projected increase in drought severity with climate change, Pacific Northwest prairies may face an increase of invasion by annuals, similar to what has been observed in California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem function. Warming generally increased nutrient availability and plant productivity across all sites. The seasonality of soil respiration responses to heating were strongly dependent on the Mediterranean climate gradient in the PNW, with heating responses being generally positive during periods of adequate soil moisture and becoming neutral to negative during periods of low soil moisture. The asynchrony between temperature and precipitation may make soils less sensitive to warming. Precipitation

  6. Approaches to 30% Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas-Rees, S.; Beal, D.; Martin, E.; Fonorow, K.

    2013-03-01

    BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the BA Program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. The scope of this report is to demonstrate achievement of these goals though the documentation of production-scale homes built cost-effectively at the community scale, and modeled to reduce whole-house energy use by 30% in the Hot Humid climate region. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

  7. A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. - Research highlights: → Plant community changes can be used to estimate critical loads of nitrogen. → Climate change is decisive for future changes of geochemistry and plant communities. → Climate change cannot be ignored in estimates of critical loads. → The model ForSAFE-Veg was successfully used to set critical loads of nitrogen. - Plant community composition can be used in dynamic modelling to estimate critical loads of nitrogen deposition, provided the appropriate reference deposition, future climate and target plant communities are defined.

  8. Climate responsive and safe earthquake construction: a community building a school

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hari Darshan

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available This article outlines environment friendly features, climate responsive features and construction features of a prototype school building constructed using green building technology. The school building has other additional features such as earthquake resistant construction, use of local materials and local technology. The construction process not only establishes community ownership, but also facilitates dissemination of the technology to the communities. Schools are effective media for raising awareness, disseminating technology and up-scaling the innovative approach. The approach is cost effective and sustainable for long-term application of green building technology. Furthermore, this paper emphasizes that such construction technology will be instrumental to build culture of safety in communities and reduce disaster risk.

  9. Approaches to 30 Percent Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas-Rees, S. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Beal, D. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Martin, E. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

    2013-03-01

    BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the Building America program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

  10. An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

  11. A community based approach to improving resilience of forests and water resources: A local and regional climate adaptation methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toby Thaler; Gwen Griffith; Nancy Gilliam

    2014-01-01

    Forest-based ecosystem services are at risk from human-caused stressors, including climate change. Improving governance and management of forests to reduce impacts and increase community resilience to all stressors is the objective of forest-related climate change adaptation. The Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) has applied one method designed to meet this objective...

  12. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  13. Revista Espinhaço entrevistaDra. Bette Otto Bliesner(NCAR Boulder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kourosh Behzadian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Dra. Bette Otto Bliesner foi entrevistada pela Revista Espinhaço durante o BIARI 2016, que ocorreu em Providence (EUA na Brown University. Para este volume especial da Revista Espihaço, a Dra. Bette, pesquisadora do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR e especialista em modelagem climática e paleo-climatologia, traz reflexões sobre seu recente trabalho no IPCC.Esta entrevista foi conduzida por Kourosh Behzadian (University of West London, Douglas Sathler (FIH/Cegeo/UFVJM and Lorena Fleury (UFRGS.

  14. Whole Community Resilience: Engaging Multiple Sectors with the Coastal Community Resilience Index and the Climate and Resilience Community of Practice in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sempier, T.

    2017-12-01

    Communicating risk due to flooding, sea level rise, storm surge, and other natural hazards is a complex task when attempting to build resilience in coastal communities. There are a number of challenges related to preparing for, responding to, and recovering from coastal storms. Successful resilience planning must include a wide range of sectors including, but not limited to local government, business, non-profit, religious, academia, and healthcare. Years of experience working with communities in the Gulf of Mexico has helped create a process that is both inclusive and effective at bringing the right people to the table and gaining momentum towards resilience efforts. The Coastal Community Resilience Index (CRI), a self-assessment for community leaders, has been implemented in 54 Gulf communities with funding that provides small grant awards to help communities take action to address gaps and vulnerabilities identified in the assessment process. To maintain momentum with resilience actions, the Gulf Climate and Resilience Community of Practice (CoP) encourages local municipality participants to share lessons learned and best practices from their implementation projects in an annual symposium. Recently, both graduate and undergraduate students have been exposed to the CRI and CoP as avenues to work through solutions to complex problems at the local level. In addition, a new generation of high school students has been introduced to the CRI. Their engagement in the process is building a more informed citizenry that will take on the leadership and decision-making roles in the future. Investing in multiple age groups and sectors through the CRI and CoP is building capacity for whole community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico. This presentation will focus on methods that have been successful in the Gulf of Mexico for creating effective change in local municipalities towards resilience actions. Discussion will include decision support tools for engaging local

  15. Collaboration in Action: Working with Indigenous peoples and Tribal communities to navigate climate decision support organizations and programs to assist Tribal communities in addressing climate resilience and sustainability efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    Creating opportunities and appropriate spaces with Tribal communities to engage with western scientists on climate resiliency is a complex endeavor. The shifting of seasons predicted by climate models and the resulting impacts that climate scientists investigate often verify what Traditional knowledge has already revealed to Indigenous peoples as they continue to live on, manage, and care for the environment they have been a part of for thousands of years. However, this convergence of two ways of knowing about our human environmental relationships is often difficult to navigate because of the ongoing impacts of colonialism and the disadvantage that Tribes operate from as a result. Day to day priorities of the Tribe are therefore reflective of more immediate issues rather than specifically considering the uncertainties of climate change. The College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute has developed a climate resilience program aimed at combining western science methodologies with indigenous ways of knowing as a means to assist Tribes in building capacity to address climate and community resiliency through culturally appropriate activities led by the Tribes. The efforts of the Institute, as guided by the SDI theoretical model of sustainability, have resulted in a variety of research, education and outreach projects that have provided not only the Menominee community, but other Tribal communities with opportunities to address climate resiliency as they see fit.

  16. An Accelerated Path to Assisting At-Risk Communities Adapt to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socci, A.

    2010-12-01

    countries need, what and where the opportunities are to assist countries and communities in adapting to climate change, and how might one get started? One of the most effective and efficient ways of identifying community/country needs, assistance opportunities and community/country entry points is to search the online archive of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) that many of the least developed countries have already assembled in conformance with the UNFCCC process. Better still perhaps, consider focusing on community-scale assessments and adaptation action plans that have already been compiled by various communities seeking assistance as national plans are unlikely to capture the nuances and variability of community needs. Unlike NAPAs, such plans are not archived in a central location. Yet clearly, community-scale plans in particular, not only represent an assessment of community needs and plans, presumptively crafted by affected communities, but also represent opportunities to align assistance resources and capacity with community needs, providing the basis for engaging affected communities in an accelerated process. Simply stated, take full advantage of the multitude of assessment and planning efforts that communities have already engaged in on their own behalf.

  17. Grassland communities in the USA and expected trends associated with climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Paul Belesky

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasslands, including managed grazinglands, represent one of the largest ecosystems on the planet. Managed grazinglands in particular tend to occupy marginal climatic and edaphic resource zones, thus exacerbating responses in net primary productivity relative to changes in system resources, including anthropogenic factors. Climate dynamism, as evident from the fossil record, appears to be a putative feature of our planet. Recent global trends in temperature and precipitation patterns seem to differ from long-term patterns and have been associated with human activities linked with increased greenhouse gas emissions; specifically CO2. Thus grasslands, with their diverse floristic components, and interaction with and dependence upon herbivores, have a remarkable ability to persist and sustain productivity in response to changing resource conditions. This resistance and resilience to change, including uncertain long-term weather conditions, establishes managed grasslands as an important means of protecting food security. We review responses of grassland communities across regions of the USA and consider the responses in productivity and system function with respect to climatic variation. Research is needed to identify plant resources and management technologies that strengthen our ability to capitalize upon physiological and anatomical features prevalent in grassland communities associated with varying growing conditions.

  18. Best Practices in Weathering Climate Risks: Advancing Corporate and Community Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; Winkelman, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the annual costs of severe weather events in the US grow into the billions of dollars, companies and communities are examining how best to plan ahead to protect their assets and bolster their bottom line. The Center for Clean Air Policy's Weathering Climate Risks program aims to help cities and companies enhance resilience to the economic impacts of severe weather and a changing climate. This presentation will highlight three communication techniques aimed at different types of audiences such as businesses, policymakers, the media, and society. First, we find that although planning for natural hazards now saves money later, stakeholders must fi¬nd their own self-interest if they are going to engage in a solution. Thus we research best practices and hold informational, off-the-record interviews to better understand the different stakeholders' perspectives, key concerns, and issues surrounding adaptation, resilience, and/or hazard mitigation. Diverse stakeholders find it attractive when a solution has multiple co-benefits such as climate resilience, greenhouse gas reduction, reduced costs, and social benefits. Second, we use off-the-record dialogues emphasizing candid public-private discussion to promote collaborative problem solving. Our high-level workshops typically consist of 30-40 scientists, companies, communities, and policymakers. We begin with presenting background material, such as geographic information systems (GIS) maps. Then we move to informal conservation. Topics include ideas such as "Ask the Climate Question": How will infrastructure, land development, and investment decisions affect GHG emissions and resilience to climate change impacts? We find these dialogues help stakeholders share their perspectives and advance public-private collaboration on climate resilience to protect critical urban infrastructure, ensure business continuity, and increase extreme weather resilience. Third, we find that communication to the general public must capture

  19. Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-15

    The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

  20. Insect community responses to climate and weather across elevation gradients in the Sagebrush Steppe, eastern Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S.; Rohde, Ashley T.

    2016-11-17

    Executive SummaryIn this study, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of insects as bioindicators of climate change in sagebrush steppe shrublands and grasslands in the Upper Columbia Basin. The research was conducted in the Stinkingwater and Pueblo mountain ranges in eastern Oregon on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management.We used a “space-for-time” sampling design that related insect communities to climate and weather along elevation gradients. We analyzed our insect dataset at three levels of organization: (1) whole-community, (2) feeding guilds (detritivores, herbivores, nectarivores, parasites, and predators), and (3) orders within nectarivores (i.e., pollinators). We captured 59,517 insects from 176 families and 10 orders at the Pueblo Mountains study area and 112,305 insects from 185 families and 11 orders at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area in 2012 and 2013. Of all the individuals captured at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area, 77,688 were from the family Cecidomyiidae (Diptera, gall gnats).We found that the composition of insect communities was associated with variability in long-term (30-yr) temperature and interannual fluctuations in temperature. We found that captures of certain fly, bee, moth, and butterfly pollinators were more strongly associated with some climate and vegetation variables than others. We found that timing of emergence, as measured by first detection of families, was associated with elevation. When analyzed by feeding guilds, we found that all guilds emerged later at high elevations except for detritivores, which emerged earlier at high elevations. The abundance of most taxa varied through time, mostly in response to temperature and precipitation. Of the pollinators, bees (particularly, Halictidae and Megachilidae) peaked in abundance in late June and early July, whereas butterflies and moths peaked in August. Flies peaked in abundance in July.Overall, our interpretation of these patterns is that

  1. Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

    2018-05-01

    A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

  2. Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

    2012-01-01

    The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

  3. Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendriksen, Kåre

    2011-01-01

    Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

  4. Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane McClymont Peace

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design: The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods: Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results: Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions: Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.

  5. Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peace, Diane McClymont; Myers, Erin

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies. PMID:22584509

  6. Philosophy of sufficiency economy for community-based adaptation to climate change: Lessons learned from Thai case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Major components within the philosophy of a sufficiency economy include moderation, prudence, and self-immunity together with knowledge and morality. These components were proposed to safeguard local communities from adverse changes and crises. Climatic crises due to global warming can impact upon local agricultural production and consumption systems. Yet, it is still questionable whether communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy can cope with climate change. The objective of this research was to study the coping and adaptive capacity to climate change of local agricultural communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy and to analyze the success factors of adaptation to climate change. The research found five adaptive strategies leading to a resilient livelihood: (1 self-evaluation, (2 diversity dependency, (3 storage and reserve, (4 cooperation, and (5 mobility over space and time. These strategies help to reduce exposure and sensitivity, while increasing adaptive capacity to climate change with the aims of sustainability and adaptation for survival, and protecting natural resource bases for food and settlement security. Moderation, prudence, and self-immunity are critical success factors of adaptation measures, whereas local ecological knowledge with morality is a core enabling factor for adapting to climate change. These factors can be applied in community-based climate change adaptation in the National Adaptation Plan.

  7. Alpine vegetation communities and the alpine-treeline ecotone boundary in New England as biomonitors for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth D. Kimball; Douglas M. Weihrauch

    2000-01-01

    This study mapped and analyzed the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE) boundary and alpine plant communities on the Presidential Range, New Hampshire and Mount Katahdin, Maine. These are sensitive biomonitoring parameters for plant community responses to climatic change. The ATE boundary spans a considerable elevational range, suggesting that shorter growing seasons with...

  8. Effects of Institutional Climate and Culture on the Perceptions of the Working Environments of Public Community Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Stephanie J.; Taylor, Colette M.

    2012-01-01

    Researchers have found that, although community colleges continue to remain gendered organizations, their climates and cultures are perceived to be more open to women than are their college and university peers. Community colleges may in fact still have the male orientation of the higher education system despite their efforts to be…

  9. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

    2016-12-05

    Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  10. Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

    2001-01-01

    This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

  11. Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the

  12. The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

  13. How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, T.; Fuller, E.; Coleman, K.; Provost, M.; Pinsky, M. L.; St Martin, K.

    2016-02-01

    We know climate is changing and fish are moving in response to those changes. But we understand less about how harvesters are responding to these changes in fish distribution and the ramifications of those changes for fishing communities. Ecological and evolutionary theory suggests that organisms must move, adapt, or die in response to environmental changes, and a related frame may be relevant for human harvesters in the face of climate change. Furthermore, research suggests that there may be a portfolio effect: a wider diversity of catch may buffer harvesters from some effects of climate change. To get at these questions, we explored changes in fishing patterns among commercial fishing communities in the northeast US from 1997-2014 using NOAA-collected logbook data. We found that communities using more mobile gear (large trawl vessels) demonstrated a greater range of latitudinal shift than communities using any other gear. Latitudinal shift was also inversely related to species diversity of catch and port latitude in those communities: southern communities that caught few species shifted dramatically northward, and northern communities that caught many species did not demonstrate marked latitudinal shifts. Those communities that demonstrated larger latitudinal shifts also demonstrated smaller changes in catch composition than their more stationary counterparts. We also found that vessels are indeed leaving many, but not all, fisheries in this region. These results suggest that harvesters are moving, adapting, and leaving fisheries, and that there does appear to be a portfolio effect, with catch diversity mediating some of these responses. While these changes in fishing patterns cannot all be directly attributed to climate change per se, marine fishes in this region are shifting north rapidly, as is expected under climate change. This study provides a valuable test case for exploring the potential ramifications of climate change on coastal socio-ecological systems.

  14. Black Sea's wind wave parameters derived from numerical simulations driven by NCEP/NCAR and NCEP CFSR reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gippius, Fedor; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Stoliarova, Elena; Arkhipkin, Victor

    2017-04-01

    This study is focused on typical features of spatiotemporal distribution of wind wave parameters on the Black Sea. These parameters were calculated during two experiments using the third-generation spectral wind wave model SWAN. During the first run a 5x5 km rectangular grid covering the entire Black Sea was used. Forcing parameters - wind speed and direction - were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period between 1948 and 2010. During the second run high resolution wind fields form the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis were used as forcing for the period from 1979 till 2010. For the period form 2011 till 2015 the second version of this reanalysis was used. The computations were performed on an unstructured computational grid with cell size depending on the sea depth. The distance between grid points varies from 10—15 km in deep-water regions till 500 m in coastal areas. Calculated values of significant wave heights (SWH) obtained during both runs were validated against instrumental measurements data. In the first case we used satellite altimetry data from the AVISO project. It turned out that calculated SWH values are typically lower than observed ones - the deviation between them was 0.3 m on the average, its maximum was of 1.67 m. Therefore, an empirical formula was applied to correct the modeling results obtained during the first experiment. For the second experiment in situ measurements performed by a Datawell buoy installed 7 km off the city Gelendzhik were used for validation. The comparison of measured and modelled values of SWH shows a good agreement between these parameters in this case. No correction was applied to the results of the second experiment. We applied the results of the NCEP/NCAR experiment to assess various features of the wave climate of the entire Black Sea. Thus, maximal SWH are observed in winter and autumn in two areas in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the sea; SWH values in these areas exceed 9 m. To define areas with most

  15. Projected shifts in copepod surface communities in the Mediterranean Sea under several climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, F.; Guilhaumon, F.; Adloff, F.; Irisson, J. O.; Ayata, S. D.

    2016-02-01

    Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

  16. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

  17. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V

    2017-07-01

    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  18. Can Perceptions of Environmental and Climate Change in Island Communities Assist in Adaptation Planning Locally?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Vaccaro, Ismael; Abernethy, Kirsten; Albert, Simon; de Pablo, Javier Fernández-López

    2015-12-01

    Local perceptions of environmental and climate change, as well as associated adaptations made by local populations, are fundamental for designing comprehensive and inclusive mitigation and adaptation plans both locally and nationally. In this paper, we analyze people's perceptions of environmental and climate-related transformations in communities across the Western Solomon Islands through ethnographic and geospatial methods. Specifically, we documented people's observed changes over the past decades across various environmental domains, and for each change, we asked respondents to identify the causes, timing, and people's adaptive responses. We also incorporated this information into a geographical information system database to produce broad-scale base maps of local perceptions of environmental change. Results suggest that people detected changes that tended to be acute (e.g., water clarity, logging intensity, and agricultural diseases). We inferred from these results that most local observations of and adaptations to change were related to parts of environment/ecosystem that are most directly or indirectly related to harvesting strategies. On the other hand, people were less aware of slower insidious/chronic changes identified by scientific studies. For the Solomon Islands and similar contexts in the insular tropics, a broader anticipatory adaptation planning strategy to climate change should include a mix of local scientific studies and local observations of ongoing ecological changes.

  19. Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, Russell K; Lipson, David L; Burns, Sean P; Turnipseed, Andrew A; Delany, Anthony C; Williams, Mark W; Schmidt, Steven K

    2006-02-09

    Most terrestrial carbon sequestration at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere occurs in seasonal, montane forest ecosystems. Winter respiratory carbon dioxide losses from these ecosystems are high, and over half of the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis in the summer can be lost the following winter. The amount of winter carbon dioxide loss is potentially susceptible to changes in the depth of the snowpack; a shallower snowpack has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower soil respiration rates. Recent climate analyses have shown widespread declines in the winter snowpack of mountain ecosystems in the western USA and Europe that are coupled to positive temperature anomalies. Here we study the effect of changes in snow cover on soil carbon cycling within the context of natural climate variation. We use a six-year record of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in a subalpine forest to show that years with a reduced winter snowpack are accompanied by significantly lower rates of soil respiration. Furthermore, we show that the cause of the high sensitivity of soil respiration rate to changes in snow depth is a unique soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow. Our observations suggest that a warmer climate may change soil carbon sequestration rates in forest ecosystems owing to changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover.

  20. Threats and climate risks into vulnerable populations. The role of education in the community resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Javier GONZÁLEZ-GAUDIANO

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, challenges in the contemporary world lead to the education to propose its current themes. Environmental education is not an exception. The magnitude and complexity of global environmental problems such as the climate change, the ocean acidification and the loss of the biodiversity have generated issues that had attracted pedagogical attention for decades. This article presents the early results of a study aimed at assessing the perception of risk and vulnerability of communities that frequently are affected by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. These findings could be a starting point for the design of educational programs aimed at strengthening community resilience. We start from the assumption based on socio-cognitive factors that determine the dispositions in order to the populations can act under similar circumstances, we can find key elements that allow us to infer their reactions to difficult situations. This considering their previous experience and their singularities in the adaptation to climate change, in the social learning in extreme situations and in the identification of their strengths and weaknesses.

  1. Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

  2. Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Rezaul Karim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

  3. Same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalakes, J.

    1997-12-31

    The Pennsylvania State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is a limited-area model of atmospheric systems, now in its fifth generation, MM5. Designed and maintained for vector and shared-memory parallel architectures, the official version of MM5 does not run on message-passing distributed memory (DM) parallel computers. The authors describe a same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5 using FLIC, the Fortran Loop and Index Converter. The resulting source is nearly line-for-line identical with the original source code. The result is an efficient distributed memory parallel option to MM5 that can be seamlessly integrated into the official version.

  4. Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

    2016-09-01

    In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big

  5. Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

    2016-01-01

    In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big

  6. New Community Education Program on Oceans and Global Climate Change: Results from Our Pilot Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, B. C.; Wiener, C.

    2010-12-01

    Ocean FEST (Families Exploring Science Together) engages elementary school students and their parents and teachers in hands-on science. Through this evening program, we educate participants about ocean and earth science issues that are relevant to their local communities. In the process, we hope to inspire more underrepresented students, including Native Hawaiians, Pacific Islanders and girls, to pursue careers in the ocean and earth sciences. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global climate change, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, coral reef degradation and ocean acidification. It is therefore critically important to train ocean and earth scientists within these communities. This two-hour program explores ocean properties and timely environmental topics through six hands-on science activities. Activities are designed so students can see how globally important issues (e.g., climate change and ocean acidification) have local effects (e.g., sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching) which are particularly relevant to island communities. The Ocean FEST program ends with a career component, drawing parallel between the program activities and the activities done by "real scientists" in their jobs. The take-home message is that we are all scientists, we do science every day, and we can choose to do this as a career. Ocean FEST just completed our pilot year. During the 2009-2010 academic year, we conducted 20 events, including 16 formal events held at elementary schools and 4 informal outreach events. Evaluation data were collected at all formal events. Formative feedback from adult participants (parents, teachers, administrators and volunteers) was solicited through written questionnaires. Students were invited to respond to a survey of five questions both before and after the program to see if there were any changes in content knowledge and career attitudes. In our presentation, we will present our

  7. Climate Variability Structures Plant Community Dynamics in Mediterranean Restored and Reference Tidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan E. Chapple

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In Mediterranean regions and other areas with variable climates, interannual weather variability may impact ecosystem dynamics, and by extension ecological restoration projects. Conditions at reference sites, which are often used to evaluate restoration projects, may also be influenced by weather variability, confounding interpretations of restoration outcomes. To better understand the influence of weather variability on plant community dynamics, we explore change in a vegetation dataset collected between 1990 and 2005 at a historic tidal wetland reference site and a nearby tidal wetland restoration project initiated in 1976 in California’s San Francisco (SF Bay. To determine the factors influencing reference and restoration trajectories, we examine changes in plant community identity in relation to annual salinity levels in the SF Bay, annual rainfall, and tidal channel structure. Over the entire study period, both sites experienced significant directional change away from the 1990 community. Community change was accelerated following low salinity conditions that resulted from strong El Niño events in 1994–1995 and 1997–1998. Overall rates of change were greater at the restoration site and driven by a combination of dominant and sub-dominant species, whereas change at the reference site was driven by sub-dominant species. Sub-dominant species first appeared at the restoration site in 1996 and incrementally increased during each subsequent year, whereas sub-dominant species cover at the reference site peaked in 1999 and subsequently declined. Our results show that frequent, long-term monitoring is needed to adequately capture plant community dynamics in variable Mediterranean ecosystems and demonstrate the need for expanding restoration monitoring and timing restoration actions to match weather conditions.

  8. Challenges of Climate Change: Resilience Efforts in Rural Communities of Kaliwlingi Village based on Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Tangguh (PKPT Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustovia Azahro

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Kaliwlingi Village in Brebes City has experienced climate change impacts such as tidal flood and land abrasion. The climate change causes the dynamics of the coast and sea levels dramatically and fosters the coastal communities to have adaptation strategies. This paper aims to identify how the community of Kaliwlingi Village adapts to the climate change that affects to a social economic condition of the inhabitants. The study used qualitative method by interpreting data taken from PengembanganKawasanPesisirTangguh (PKPT program, interviews, and observations.The study highlights that PKPT program has a significant impact, especially regarding disaster mitigation. PKPT program is successful in collecting the common rules of the community to become social capital accommodated in the local institution. Furthermore, the PKPT Program is also fostering the local economy.

  9. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  10. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  11. Linking Climate Change Science and Adaptation Policy at the Community Scale through Anticipatory Governance: A Review of Concepts with Application to Arizona Communities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, D. D.; Quay, R.; Ferguson, D. B.; Buizer, J. L.; Guido, Z.; Chhetri, N.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific consensus and certainty varies regarding the link between climate change, specific natural hazards and extreme events, and local and regional impacts. Despite these uncertainties, it is necessary to apply the best available scientific knowledge to anticipate a range of possible futures, develop mitigation and adaptation strategies, and monitor changes to build resilience. While there is widespread recognition of the need to improve the linkages between climate science information and public policy for adaptation at the community scale, there are significant challenges to this goal. Many community outreach and engagement efforts, for instance, operate using a one-size-fits-all approach. Recent research has shown this to be problematic for local governments. Public policy occurs in a cycle that includes problem understanding, planning and policy approval, and implementation, with ongoing policy refinement through multiple such cycles. One promising approach to incorporating scientific knowledge with uncertainty into public policy is an anticipatory governance approach. Anticipatory governance employs a continual cycle of anticipation (understanding), planning, monitoring, and adaptation (policy choice and implementation). The types of information needed in each of these phases will be different given the nature of each activity and the unique needs of each community. It is highly unlikely that all local governments will be in the same phase of climate adaptation with the same unique needs at the same time and thus a uniform approach to providing scientific information will only be effective for a discrete group of communities at any given point in time. A key concept for the effective integration of scientific information into public discourse is that such information must be salient, credible, and legitimate. Assuming a scientific institution has established credibility with engaged communities, maximizing the effectiveness of climate science requires

  12. Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

    2014-01-01

    As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

  13. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  14. Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

  15. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  16. Simulating the Pineapple Express in the half degree Community Climate System Model, CCSM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric rivers are recognized as major contributors to the poleward transport of water vapor. Upon reaching land, these phenomena also play a critical role in extreme precipitation and flooding events. The Pineapple Express (PE) is defined as an atmospheric river extending out of the deep tropics and reaching the west coast of North America. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) high-resolution ensemble simulations for the twentieth and 21st centuries are diagnosed to identify the PE. Analysis of the twentieth century simulations indicated that the CCSM4 accurately captures the spatial and temporal climatology of the PE. Analysis of the end 21st century simulations indicates a significant increase in storm duration and intensity of precipitation associated with landfall of the PE. Only a modest increase in the number of atmospheric rivers of a few percent is projected for the end of 21st century.

  17. Differentiation, Leaders and Fairness. Negotiating Climate Commitments in the European Community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringius, Lasse

    1997-12-31

    This report shows that it is possible to negotiate and reach asymmetrical environmental agreements that take into account significant national dissimilarities. It is argued that analytical models and intuitively appealing model-based quantitative indicators of national circumstances can establish premises for negotiations leading to differentiated environmental agreements. While they cannot take the place of political negotiations, they help identify a formula that defines the problem in a resolvable fashion and prevent the bargaining space from expanding uncontrollably. Scholars arguing that symmetrical environmental measures are widely used because they simplify negotiations and prevent countries from pursuing extremist positions, and that salient focal points are significant in negotiation, overlook this argument. In pre-Kyoto European Community climate policy, which this report empirically examines, high transaction costs and EC member states` ability to block economically hurtful agreements were not essential issues. 54 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.

  18. Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Q; Epstein, H E; Frost, G V; Walker, D A; Forbes, B C

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

  19. The capacity to adapt?: communities in a changing climate, environment, and economy on the northern Andaman coast of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan J. Bennett

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The health and productivity of marine ecosystems, habitats, and fisheries are deteriorating on the Andaman coast of Thailand. Because of their high dependence on natural resources and proximity to the ocean, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to climate-induced changes in the marine environment. These communities must also adapt to the impacts of management interventions and conservation initiatives, including marine protected areas, which have livelihood implications. Further, communities on the Andaman coast are also experiencing a range of new economic opportunities associated in particular with tourism and agriculture. These complex and ongoing changes require integrated assessment of, and deliberate planning to increase, the adaptive capacity of communities so that they may respond to: (1 environmental degradation and fisheries declines through effective management interventions or conservation initiatives, (2 new economic opportunities to reduce dependence on fisheries, and (3 the increasing impacts of climate change. Our results are from a mixed methods study, which used surveys and interviews to examine multiple dimensions of the adaptive capacity of seven island communities near marine protected areas on the Andaman coast of Thailand. Results show that communities had low adaptive capacity with respect to environmental degradation and fisheries declines, and to management and conservation interventions, as well as uneven levels of adaptive capacity to economic opportunities. Though communities and households were experiencing the impacts of climate change, especially storm events, changing seasons and weather patterns, and erosion, they were reacting to these changes with limited knowledge of climate change per se. We recommend interventions, in the form of policies, programs, and actions, at multiple scales for increasing the adaptive capacity of Thailand's coastal communities to change. The analytical and methodological

  20. Community level perceptions of the monsoon onset, withdrawal and climatic trends in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, M. A.; Abu Syed, M. D.; Hossain, P. R.; Maainuddi, G.; Mamnun, N.

    2012-04-01

    A structured questionnaire study was carried out in 6 different regions in Bangladesh in order to give insight into how the different communities define the monsoon. The respondents were asked how they define the monsoon onset and withdrawal, and by how much these can vary from year to year. They were also asked about how they perceive changes in onset and withdrawal dates and total monsoonal rainfall during the past 20 years. Bangladesh is a developing country with a large proportion of the population living in rural areas and employed in the agricultural sector. It is foreseen that these communities will be most affected by changes in the climate. These groups were considered to be the main stakeholders when considering climate change, due to the direct influence the monsoon has on their livelihood and the food supply for the entire nation. Agricultural workers were therefore the main group targeted in this study. The main aim of the study was to create a framework for defining the monsoon in order to increase the usability of results in future impact-related studies. Refining definitions according to the perceptions of the main stakeholders helps to achieve this goal. Results show that rainfall is the main parameter used in defining the monsoon onset and withdrawal. This is possibly intuitive, however the monsoon onset was considered to be considerably earlier than previous scientific studies. This could be due to pre-monsoonal rainfall, however the respondents defined this type of rainfall separately to what they called the monsoon. The monsoon is considered to start earliest in the Sylhet region in northeast Bangladesh.

  1. Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.

    2016-01-01

    Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

  2. Formal education as an avenue for community action on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordero, E.

    2017-12-01

    Green Ninja started at San Jose State University as an educational initiative to inspire youth action on climate change. We created educational videos, games and lesson plans that promoted climate science literacy and pro-environmental behavior. Although some teachers found our content valuable, we came to learn that the overriding decisions about course curriculum come from the school district level. Should we want to scale in a manner that might really provide an environmental benefit, we needed to learn about school district needs and to develop a product that solves their problems. This presentation will discuss our journey from value propositions to empathy for our clients, and how we came to realize that the best approach for achieving our common goals was through the commercial marketplace. We will share data from some of our early adopters that suggests that formal education can both achieve district goals while also delivering environmental benefits. We will also describe the value of partnerships and how leveraging support from communities with aligning interests are improving our chances of success.

  3. Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product in Giovanni for the Climate Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Feng; Hearty, Thomas J.; Wei, Jennifer; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Seiler, Edward; Meyer, David

    2018-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission began with the launch of Aqua in 2002. Over 15 years of AIRS products have been used by the climate research and application communities. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), in collaboration with NASA Sounder Team at JPL, provides processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) mission. We generated a Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly product using 14 years of AIRS standard monthly product. The product includes Air Temperature at the Surface and Surface Skin Temperature, both in Ascending/Daytime and Descending/Nighttime mode. The temperature variables and their anomalies are deployed to Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC. Giovanni provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. It is also a powerful tool that stakeholders can use for decision support in planning and preparing for increased climate variability. In this presentation, we demonstrate the functions in Giovanni with use cases employing AIRS Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly variables.

  4. Psychosocial safety climate: a multilevel theory of work stress in the health and community service sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dollard, M F; McTernan, W

    2011-12-01

    Work stress is widely thought to be a significant problem in the health and community services sector. We reviewed evidence from a range of different data sources that confirms this belief. High levels of psychosocial risk factors, psychological health problems and workers compensation claims for stress are found in the sector. We propose a multilevel theoretical model of work stress to account for the results. Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) refers to a climate for psychological health and safety. It reflects the balance of concern by management about psychological health v. productivity. By extending the health erosion and motivational paths of the Job Demands-Resources model we propose that PSC within work organisations predicts work conditions and in turn psychological health and engagement. Over and above this, however, we expect that the external environment of the sector particularly government policies, driven by economic rationalist ideology, is increasing work pressure and exhaustion. These conditions are likely to lead to a reduced quality of service, errors and mistakes.

  5. Leveling up: enabling diverse users to locate and effectively use unfamiliar data sets through NCAR's Research Data Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    Research necessarily expands upon the volume and variety of data used in prior work. Increasingly, investigators look outside their primary areas of expertise for data to incorporate into their research. Locating and using the data that they need, which may be described in terminology from other fields of science or be encoded in unfamiliar data formats, present often insurmountable barriers for potential users. As a data provider of a diverse collection of over 600 atmospheric and oceanic data sets (DS) (http://rda.ucar.edu), we seek to reduce or remove those barriers. Serving a broadening and increasing user base with fixed and finite resources requires automation. Our software harvests metadata descriptors about the data from the data files themselves. Data curators/subject matter experts augment the machine-generated metadata as needed. Metadata powers our data search tools. Users may search for data in a myriad of ways ranging from free text queries to GCMD keywords to faceted searches capable of narrowing down selections by specific criteria. Users are offered customized lists of DSs fitting their criteria with links to DS main information pages that provide detailed information about each DS. Where appropriate, they link to the NCAR Climate Data Guide for expert guidance about strengths and weaknesses of that particular DS. Once users find the data sets they need, we provide modular lessons for common data tasks. The lessons may be data tool install guides, data recipes, blog posts, or short YouTube videos. Rather than overloading users with reams of information, we provide targeted lessons when the user is most receptive, e.g. when they want to use data in an unfamiliar format. We add new material when we discover common points of confusion. Each educational resource is tagged with DS ID numbers so that they are automatically linked with the relevant DSs. How can data providers leverage the work of other data providers? Can a common tagging scheme for data

  6. Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial 2016 Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2017-05-09

    For the 2016 tutorial, NCAR/CGD requested a total budget of $70,000 split equally between DOE and NSF. The funds were used to support student participation (travel, lodging, per diem, etc.). Lectures and practical session support was primarily provided by local participants at no additional cost (see list below). The seventh annual Community Earth System Model (CESM) tutorial (2016) for students and early career scientists was held 8 – 12 August 2016. As has been the case over the last few years, this event was extremely successful and there was greater demand than could be met. There was continued interest in support of the NSF’s EaSM Infrastructure awards, to train these awardees in the application of the CESM. Based on suggestions from previous tutorial participants, the 2016 tutorial experience again provided direct connection to Yellowstone for each individual participant (rather than pairs), and used the NCAR Mesa Library. The 2016 tutorial included lectures on simulating the climate system and practical sessions on running CESM, modifying components, and analyzing data. These were targeted to the graduate student level. In addition, specific talks (“Application” talks) were introduced this year to provide participants with some in-depth knowledge of some specific aspects of CESM.

  7. Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: a state-of-the-knowledge review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy R. McPherson; Jake F. Weltzin

    2000-01-01

    This review evaluates the effects and importance of disturbance and climate change on plant community dynamics in the United States/Mexico borderlands region. Our primary focus is on knowledge of physiognomic-level change in grasslands and woodlands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Changes in vegetation physiognomy have broad implications for...

  8. A modelling framework to assess climate change and adaptation impact on heterogeneous crop-livestock farming communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, P.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Chibwana, G.A.; Crespo, O.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the livelihoods of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid Zimbabwe. The large diversity in resource endowment and production objectives in rural communities differentially influences this impact and the

  9. Communities of practice in support of collaborative multi-disciplinary learning and action in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimlich, J. E.; Stylinski, C.; Palmquist, S.; Wasserman, D.

    2017-12-01

    Collaborative efforts reaching across interdisciplinary boundaries to address controversial issues such as climate change present significant complexities, including developing shared language, agreeing on common outcomes, and even establishing habits of regular dialogue. Such collaborative efforts should include museums, aquariums, zoos, parks, and youth groups as each of these informal education institutions provides a critical avenue for supporting learning about and responding to climate change. The community of practice framework offers a potential effective approach to support learning and action of diverse groups with a shared interest. Our study applied this framework to the NSF-funded Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Education (MADE-CLEAR) project, facilitating informal educators across these two states to advance their climate change education practices, and could provide insight for a building a citywide multi-sector collaborative effort. We found strategies that center on the process of group evolution; support different perspectives, levels of participation, and community spaces; focus on value as defined by members; and balance familiarity and fun produced a dynamic and functional community with a shared practice where none had existed before. Also important was expanding the community-of-practice focus on relationship building to include structured professional development and spin-off opportunities for small-group team-based endeavors. Our findings suggest that this collaborative professional learning approach is well suited to diverse groups seeking creative solutions to complex and even divisive challenges.

  10. Perceptions of Obvious and Disruptive Climate Change: Community-Based Risk Assessment for Two Native Villages in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Rosales

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work operationalizes the determinants of climate change risk, exposure and vulnerability, through the perceptions held by Native hunters, fishers, and gatherers in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska. Informed by their skill, experience, and the traditional knowledge of their elders, hunters, fishers, and gatherers in these communities are astute observers of their environment and environmental change. A questionnaire is used to sort and rank their perceptions of the most obvious and disruptive elements of climate change as representations of exposure and vulnerability, respectively. Results represent the relative strength and significance of those perceptions of environmental change. In addition to other changes, storms are among the most obvious and disruptive impacts of climate change to respondents in both communities, while changes to sea ice tend to be more disruptive in Savoonga, a more ice-obligate culture, than Shaktoolik. Changes on the tundra are more obvious in Shaktoolik, but is the least disruptive category of change in both villages. Changes along the coast were both obvious and disruptive, albeit more so in Shaktoolik than Savoonga. The findings suggest that traditional ecological knowledge is a valuable source of information to access perceptions of risk, and develop climate risk management and adaptation plans. The questionnaire design and statistical methodology may be of interest to those working on community-based adaptation and risk assessment projects in high-risk, poor, and marginalized Native communities with small populations.

  11. Safety climate in the US federal wildland fire management community: influences of organizational, environmental, group, and individual characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne E. Black; Brooke Baldauf McBride

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the effects of organisational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate (High Reliability Organising Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity) in the US federal wildland fire management community. Of particular interest were differences between perceptions based on...

  12. Safety climate in the federal fire management community: Influences of organizational, environmental, group, and individual characteristics (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke Baldauf McBride; Anne E. Black

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effects of organizational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate in the US federal fire management community (HRO Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity). Multiple analyses of variance revealed that all types of characteristics had a significant effect on...

  13. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, R.; Kokic, P.; Crimp, S.; Meinke, H.B.; Howden, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for

  14. Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

    2017-11-01

    Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm

  15. Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Zhang, J.; Bao, Q.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA infrastructure and technology have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences for three years since 2014. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets and analysis tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. A provenance management system for CMDA is developed to keep track of students' usages of CMDA, and to recommend datasets and analysis tools for their research topic. The provenance system also allows students to revisit their analysis results and share them with their group. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each use case developed is described and listed in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered from the use case, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the exact analysis service call with all the input arguments filled. For example, one science use case is the evaluation of NCAR CAM5 model with MODIS total cloud fraction. The analysis service used is Difference Plot Service of

  16. Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurélien Royer

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød.

  17. Extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulev, S.K.; Zolina, O.; Grigoriev, S. [AN SSSR, Moscow (USSR). Inst. Okeanologii

    2001-07-01

    The winter climatology of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity was derived from 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 to 1999, using software which provides improved accuracy in cyclone identification in comparison to numerical tracking schemes. Cyclone characteristics over the Kuroshio and Gulfstream are very different to those over continental North America and the Arctic. Analysis of Northern Hemisphere cyclones shows secular and decadal-scale changes in cyclone frequency, intensity, lifetime and deepening rates. The western Pacific and Atlantic are characterized by an increase in cyclone intensity and deepening during the 42-year period, although the eastern Pacific and continental North America demonstrate opposite tendencies in most cyclone characteristics. There is an increase of the number of cyclones in the Arctic and in the western Pacific and a downward tendency over the Gulf Stream and subpolar Pacific. Decadal scale variability in cyclone activity over the Atlantic and Pacific exhibits south-north dipole-like patterns. Atlantic and Pacific cyclone activity associated with the NAO and PNA is analyzed. Atlantic cyclone frequency demonstrates a high correlation with NAO and reflects the NAO shift in the mid 1970s, associated with considerable changes in European storm tracks. The PNA is largely linked to the eastern Pacific cyclone frequencies, and controls cyclone activity over the Gulf region and the North American coast during the last two decades. Assessment of the accuracy of the results and comparison with those derived using numerical algorithms, shows that biases inherent in numerical procedures are not negligible. (orig.)

  18. Community based ecological restoration of peatland in Central Mongolia for climate change mitigation and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minayeva, Tatiana; Chultem, Dugarjav; Grootjans, Ab; Yamkhin, Jambaljav; Sirin, Andrey; Suvorov, Gennady; Batdorj, Oyunbileg; Tsamba, Batdorj

    2017-04-01

    Peatlands cover almost 2 % of Mongolia. They play crucial role in regulation of key natural processes in ecosystems and provide unique resources to maintain traditional way of life and livelihoods of herders. During the last decades, Mongolian peatlands severely degraded both due to the climate related events and due to overgrazing. The peat degradation causes significant losses of carbon store, GHG emissions and is followed by changes in water balance and water composition. The issue arises if such a type of ecosystems as peatlands could be a subject for ecosystem restoration in this arid and subhumid climate. Could it be considered as measure for climate change mitigation and adaptation? With funding opportunities from the Asian Development Bank a pilot project for peatland restoration had been launched in 2016 in Khashaat soum, Arkhangai aimag in Central Mongolia. The pilot aimed to merge local interests of herders with global targets of climate change mitigation. The following questions are addressed: what are the losses of natural functions and ecosystem services of peatland; what are expectations and demands of local communities and incentives for their involvement; how should and could look the target ecosystem; what are the technical solutions in order to achieve the target ecosystem characteristics; and what are the parameters for monitoring to assess the success of the project? The comprehensive baseline study addressed both natural and social aspects. The conclusions are: most of peat in the study area had been mineralised and has turned to organic rich soil with carbon content between 20 to 40 %, the key sources of water - small springs - are partly destroyed by cattle; the permafrost disappeared in this area and could not be the subject for restoration; local herders understand the value of peatland as water source and had carried out some voluntary activities for water storage and regulation such as dam construction; nevertheless there is no

  19. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  20. Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonnell, T.C.; Belyazid, S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Sverdrup, H.; Bowman, W.D.; Porter, E.M.

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

  1. Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch, Jaime; Fernández-Beaskoetxea, Saioa; Garner, Trenton W J; Carrascal, Luis María

    2018-02-15

    Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

  3. #ClimateEdCommunity : Field Workshops Bring Together Teachers and Researchers to Make Meaning of Science and Classroom Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, S.; Warburton, J.; Wood, J. H.; Steiner, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Seeing Understanding and Teaching: Climate Change in Denali is a four-day immersive teacher professional development course held in Denali National Park. Developed through three partner organizations, the course aims to develop teachers' skills for integrating climate change content into their classrooms. This presentation aims to share tangible best practices for linking researchers and teachers in the field, through four years of experience in program delivery and reported through a published external evaluation. This presentation will examine the key aspects of a successful connection between teachers, researchers, science, and classrooms: (1) Inclusion of teacher leaders, (2) dedicated program staff, (3) workshop community culture, and will expose barriers to this type of collaboration including (1) differences in learning style, (2) prior teaching experience, (3) existing/scaffolding understanding of climate change science, and (4) accessibility of enrollment and accommodations for the extended learning experience. Presentation Content Examples:Participants overwhelmingly value the deep commitment this course has to linking their field experience to the classroom attributing to the role of a teacher-leader; an expert science teacher with first-hand field research experience in the polar regions. The goal of including a teacher-leader is to enhance translatability between fieldwork and the classroom. Additionally, qualitative aspects of the report touches on the intangible successes of the workshop such as: (1) the creation of a non-judgmental learning atmosphere, (2) addressing accessibility to science learning tools in rural and under-served communities, (3) defining successful collaboration as making meaning together through exploratory questioning while in the field (4) discussed the social and cultural implications of climate change, and the difficulty of navigating these topics in educational and/or multicultural spaces. Next Steps? Create a #ClimateEdCommunity

  4. Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

  5. The relative role of dispersal and local interactions for alpine plant community diversity under simulated climate warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klanderud, K.; Totland, Oe. [Norwegian Univ. of Life Science, Dept. of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Aas (Norway)

    2007-08-15

    Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs). Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala. These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity. (au)

  6. Comparison of post-fire seedling establishment between scrub communities in mediterranean and non-mediterranean climate ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrington, M.E.; Keeley, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    I Both fire regimes and the conditions under which fires occur vary widely. Abiotic conditions (such as climate) in combination with fire season, frequency and intensity could influence vegetation responses to fire. A variety of adaptations facilitate post-fire recruitment in mediterranean climate ecosystems, but responses of other communities are less well known. We evaluated the importance of climate by comparing sites with mediterranean and subtropical climates. 2 We used paired burned and mature sites in chamise chaparral, mixed chaparral and coastal sage scrub (California), and rosemary scrub, sand pine scrub and sand-hill (Florida), to test whether (i) patterns of pre-fire and post-fire seedling recruitment are more similar between communities within a region than between regions, and (ii) post-fire stimulation of seedling establishment is greater in regions with marked fire-induced contrasts in abiotic site characteristics. 3 Post-fire seedling densities were more similar among sites within climatic regions than between regions. Both seedling densities and proportions of species represented by seedlings after fires were generally higher in California. 4 The only site characteristic showing a pre-fire-post-fire contrast was percentage open canopy, and the effect was greater in California than in Florida. Soil properties were unaffected by fire. 5 Mediterranean climate ecosystems in other regions have nutrient-poor soils similar to our subtropical Florida sites, but show post-fire seedling recruitment patterns more similar to the nutrient-rich sites in California. Climate therefore appears to play a more major role than soil characteristics.

  7. A Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process for Low-Lying, Communities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Tatebe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available While the province of British Columbia (BC, Canada, provides guidelines for flood risk management, it is local governments’ responsibility to delineate their own flood vulnerability, assess their risk, and integrate these with planning policies to implement adaptive action. However, barriers such as the lack of locally specific data and public perceptions about adaptation options mean that local governments must address the need for adaptation planning within a context of scientific uncertainty, while building public support for difficult choices on flood-related climate policy and action. This research demonstrates a process to model, visualize and evaluate potential flood impacts and adaptation options for the community of Delta, in Metro Vancouver, across economic, social and environmental perspectives. Visualizations in 2D and 3D, based on hydrological modeling of breach events for existing dike infrastructure, future sea level rise and storm surges, are generated collaboratively, together with future adaptation scenarios assessed against quantitative and qualitative indicators. This ‘visioning package’ is being used with staff and a citizens’ Working Group to assess the performance, policy implications and social acceptability of the adaptation strategies. Recommendations based on the experience of the initiative are provided that can facilitate sustainable future adaptation actions and decision-making in Delta and other jurisdictions.

  8. British Container Breeding Mosquitoes: The Impact of Urbanisation and Climate Change on Community Composition and Phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townroe, Susannah; Callaghan, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    The proliferation of artificial container habitats in urban areas has benefitted urban adaptable mosquito species globally. In areas where mosquitoes transmit viruses and parasites, it can promote vector population productivity and fuel mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. In Britain, storage of water in garden water butts is increasing, potentially expanding mosquito larval habitats and influencing population dynamics and mosquito-human contact. Here we show that the community composition, abundance and phenology of mosquitoes breeding in experimental water butt containers were influenced by urbanisation. Mosquitoes in urban containers were less species-rich but present in significantly higher densities (100.4±21.3) per container than those in rural containers (77.7±15.1). Urban containers were dominated by Culex pipiens (a potential vector of West Nile Virus [WNV]) and appear to be increasingly exploited by Anopheles plumbeus (a human-biting potential WNV and malaria vector). Culex phenology was influenced by urban land use type, with peaks in larval abundances occurring earlier in urban than rural containers. Among other factors, this was associated with an urban heat island effect which raised urban air and water temperatures by 0.9°C and 1.2°C respectively. Further increases in domestic water storage, particularly in urban areas, in combination with climate changes will likely alter mosquito population dynamics in the UK. PMID:24759617

  9. Towards a dedicated impact portal to bridge the gap between the impact and climate communities: Lessons from use cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deandreis, Celine; Page, Christian; Braconnot, Pascale; Joussaume, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    Future climate evolution is of primary importance for the societal, economical, political orientations and decision-making. It explains the increasing use of climate projections as input for quantitative impact studies, assessing vulnerability and defining adaptation strategies in different sectors. Here we analyse 17 national and representative use cases so as to identify the diversity of the demand for climate information depending on user profiles as well as the best practices, methods and tools that are needed to answer the different requests. A particular emphasis is put on the workflow that allows to translate climate data into suitable impact data, the way to deal with the different sources of uncertainty and to provide a suited product to users. We identified three complementary tools to close the gap between climate scientists and user needs: an efficient interface between users and providers; an optimized methodology to handle user requests and a portal to facilitate access to data and elaborated products. We detail in the paper how these three tools can limit the intervention of experts, educate users, and lead to the production of useful information. This work provides the basis on which the ENES (European Network for Earth System Modelling) Portal Interface for the Climate Impact Communities is built. (authors)

  10. NCAR High-resolution Land Data Assimilation System and Its Recent Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, F.; Manning, K.; Barlage, M.; Gochis, D.; Tewari, M.

    2008-05-01

    A High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) has been developed at NCAR to meet the need for high-resolution initial conditions of land state (soil moisture and temperature) by today's numerical weather prediction models coupled to a land surface model such as the WRF/Noah coupled modeling system. Intended for conterminous US application, HRLDAS uses observed hourly 4-km national precipitation analysis and satellite-derived surface-solar-downward radiation to drive, in uncoupled mode, the Noah land surface model to simulate long-term evolution of soil state. The advantage of HRLDAS is its use of 1-km resolution land-use and soil texture maps and 4-km rainfall data. As a result, it is able to capture fine-scale heterogeneity at the surface and in the soil. The ultimate goal of HRLDAS development is to characterize soil moisture/temperature and vegetation variability at small scales (~4km) over large areas to provide improved initial land and vegetation conditions for the WRF/Noah coupled model. Hence, HRLDAS is configured after the WRF/Noah coupled model configuration to ensure the consistency in model resolution, physical configuration (e.g., terrain height), soil model, and parameters between the uncoupled soil initialization system and its coupled forecast counterpart. We will discuss various characteristics of HRLDAS, including its spin-up and sensitivity to errors in forcing data. We will describe recent enhancement in terms of hydrological modeling and the use of remote sensing data. We will discuss recent applications of HRLDAS for flood forecast, agriculture, and arctic land system.

  11. Assessing Intraseasonal Variability Produced by Several Deep Convection Schemes in the NCAR CCM3.6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, E. D.

    2001-05-01

    The Hack, Zhang/McFarlane, and McRAS convection schemes produce very different simulations of intraseasonal variability in the NCAR CCM3.6. A robust analysis of simulation performance requires an expanded set of diagnostics. The use of only one criterion to analyze model Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) variability, such as equatorial zonal wind variability, may give a misleading impression of model performance. Schemes that produce strong variability in zonal winds may sometimes lack a corresponding coherent signal in precipitation, suggesting that model convection and the large-scale circulation are not as strongly coupled as observed. The McRAS scheme, which includes a parametrization of unsaturated convective downdrafts, produces the best simulation of intraseasonal variability of the three schemes used. Downdrafts in McRAS create a moister equatorial troposphere, which increases equatorial convection. Composite analysis indicates a strong dependence of model intraseasonal variability on the frictional convergence mechanism, which may also be important in nature. The McRAS simulation has limitations, however. Indian Ocean variability is weak, and anomalous convection extends too far east across the Pacific. The dependence of convection on surface friction is too strong, and causes enhanced MJO convection to be associated with low-level easterly wind perturbations, unlike observed MJO convection. Anomalous vertical advection associated with surface convergence influences model convection by moistening the lower troposphere. Based on the work of Hendon (2000), coupling to an interactive ocean is unlikely to change the performance of the CCM3 with McRAS, due to the phase relationship between anomalous convection and zonal winds. Use of the analysis tools presented here indicates areas for improvement in the parametrization of deep convection by atmospheric GCMs.

  12. Late Quaternary climate-change velocity: Implications for modern distributions and communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandel, Brody Steven; Dalsgaard, Bo; Arge, Lars Allan

    a global map of climate-change velocity since the Last Glacial Maximum and used this measure of climate instability to address a number of classic hypotheses. Results/Conclusions We show that historical climate-change velocity is related to a wide range of characteristics of modern distributions...

  13. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pearce, W; Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate

  14. Climate change, human communities, and forests in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Linda A. Joyce

    2012-01-01

    Human concerns about the effects of climate change on forests are related to the values that forests provide to human populations, that is, to the effects on ecosystem services derived from forests. Service values include the consumption of timber products, the regulation of climate and water quality, and aesthetic and spiritual values. Effects of climate change on...

  15. Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on rural communities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankaj Lal; Janaki Alavalapati; D Evan Mercer

    2011-01-01

    Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate such as temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer (USEPA 2009). In the last decade, there has been a clear consensus among scientists that the world is experiencing a rapid global climate change, much of it attributable to anthropogenic activities. The extent of...

  16. Does social climate influence positive eWOM? A study of heavy-users of online communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Ruiz-Mafe

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of social influences on positive eWOM behaviour (PeWOM of heavy-users of online communities. Drawing on Social Interaction Utility Framework, Group Marketing and Social Learning Theories, we develop and test a research model integrating the interactions between the social climate of a website and Interpersonal Influences in PeWOM. 262 Spanish heavy-users of online communities were selected and the data analysed using partial least squares equation modelling. Overall, the model explains 59% of the variance of PeWOM on online communities. Findings reveal that interaction with other members of the online community (Social Presence is the main predictor of PeWOM. Social Identity is a mediator between Social Presence and PeWOM. Interpersonal Influence has an important role as a moderator variable; the greater the impact of Interpersonal Influence, the stronger the relationship between Social Presence and PeWOM.

  17. Forest Plant community changes during 1989-2007 in response to climate warming in the Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Gégout, J.C.; Dupouey, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    Question: How strong are climate warming-driven changes within mid-elevation forest communities? Observations of plant community change within temperate mountain forest ecosystems in response to recent warming are scarce in comparison to high-elevation alpine and nival ecosystems, perhaps...... reflecting the confounding influence of forest stand dynamics. Location: Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland). Methods: We assessed changes in plant community composition by surveying 154 Abies alba forest vegetation relevés (550-1,350 m a.s.l.) in 1989 and 2007. Over this period, temperatures increased...... while precipitation did not change. Correspondence analysis (CA) and ecological indicator values were used to measure changes in plant community composition. Relevés in even- and uneven-aged stands were analysed separately to determine the influence of forest stand dynamics. We also analysed changes...

  18. Constraints on trait combinations explain climatic drivers of biodiversity: the importance of trait covariance in community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, John M; Laughlin, Daniel C

    2017-07-01

    Trade-offs maintain diversity and structure communities along environmental gradients. Theory indicates that if covariance among functional traits sets a limit on the number of viable trait combinations in a given environment, then communities with strong multidimensional trait constraints should exhibit low species diversity. We tested this prediction in winter annual plant assemblages along an aridity gradient using multilevel structural equation modelling. Univariate and multivariate functional diversity measures were poorly explained by aridity, and were surprisingly poor predictors of community richness. By contrast, the covariance between maximum height and seed mass strengthened along the aridity gradient, and was strongly associated with richness declines. Community richness had a positive effect on local neighbourhood richness, indicating that climate effects on trait covariance indirectly influence diversity at local scales. We present clear empirical evidence that declines in species richness along gradients of environmental stress can be due to increasing constraints on multidimensional phenotypes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Differences in plankton community structure and carbon cycling along a climate gradient from the Greenland Ice Sheet to offshore waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arendt, K.E.; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Rysgaard, S.

    Huge differences in plankton community structures and biomasses are observed along a climate gradient from the Greenland Ice Sheet to offshore waters at the West Greenland coast. The offshore region has a high biomass of copepods dominated by Calanus spp., which are capable of consuming 55....... Protozooplankton accounts for 20-38% of the carbon turnover in the offshore and inland areas. However, protozooplankton like copepods has low ability to turn over the primary production close to the Ice Sheet. Increased run of from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to global warming could displace the existing climate...... gradient. This would have a profound influence on the future plankton community structure as well as the energy transfer to higher trophic levels in Arctic coastal ecosystems....

  20. Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A.; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

    2011-01-01

    Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg -1 dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO 2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO 2 assimilation rate (A sat ) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A sat in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. - Highlights: → We exposed constructed grassland communities to Zn addition in a current and a future climate. → Zn uptake did not differ between the climates. → Although A sat was more responsive to Zn in future climate, climate did not alter biomass responses. → If this response remains on the long term, climate change will not alter sensitivity. - This study is the first to examine plant responses to a heavy metal (Zn) in a changing climate, and shows that the tolerance of plants to Zn stress will not be altered in a future climate.

  1. Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

    2005-12-01

    The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop

  2. The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

    2013-02-01

    Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

  3. Response of air-sea carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, K.; Lindsay, K.

    2010-07-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10%-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net air-sea carbon fluxes are small, which is due to several effects, two of which stand out: first, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange, and second, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds that is predicted by some idealized studies occurs only in part of the basin, and is compensated by stronger winds in other parts.

  4. Flexible Environments for Grand-Challenge Simulation in Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrehumbert, R.; Tobis, M.; Lin, J.; Dieterich, C.; Caballero, R.

    2004-12-01

    Current climate models are monolithic codes, generally in Fortran, aimed at high-performance simulation of the modern climate. Though they adequately serve their designated purpose, they present major barriers to application in other problems. Tailoring them to paleoclimate of planetary simulations, for instance, takes months of work. Theoretical studies, where one may want to remove selected processes or break feedback loops, are similarly hindered. Further, current climate models are of little value in education, since the implementation of textbook concepts and equations in the code is obscured by technical detail. The Climate Systems Center at the University of Chicago seeks to overcome these limitations by bringing modern object-oriented design into the business of climate modeling. Our ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end modeling environment capable of configuring anything from a simple single-column radiative-convective model to a full 3-D coupled climate model using a uniform, flexible interface. Technically, the modeling environment is implemented as a Python-based software component toolkit: key number-crunching procedures are implemented as discrete, compiled-language components 'glued' together and co-ordinated by Python, combining the high performance of compiled languages and the flexibility and extensibility of Python. We are incrementally working towards this final objective following a series of distinct, complementary lines. We will present an overview of these activities, including PyOM, a Python-based finite-difference ocean model allowing run-time selection of different Arakawa grids and physical parameterizations; CliMT, an atmospheric modeling toolkit providing a library of 'legacy' radiative, convective and dynamical modules which can be knitted into dynamical models, and PyCCSM, a version of NCAR's Community Climate System Model in which the coupler and run-control architecture are re-implemented in Python, augmenting its flexibility

  5. Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change; Potenziale und Grenzen von epistemic communities. Eine Analyse des Weltklimarates und der Klimarahmenkonvention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto, Daniel

    2015-07-01

    In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [German] In Zeiten zunehmender globaler Unsicherheiten nimmt die Wissenschaft fuer die Entscheidungen der Politik eine zentrale Stellung ein. Epistemic communities sind nach Peter M. Haas durch ihr konsensuales Wissen in der Lage, das Kooperationsverhalten von Staaten zu beeinflussen. Das vorliegende Buch prueft diese Aussage kritisch. Wie der Fall der Klimarahmenkonvention zeigt, war der Weltklimarat (IPCC) nicht in der Lage, seine Loesungsoptionen in den zwischenstaatlichen Verhandlungen durchzusetzen, da diesen die individuellen Ueberzeugungen der Entscheidungstraeger entgegenstanden. Waehrend Angela Merkel ein Abkommen befuerwortete, bestritt die US-Regierung unter George W. Bush die Existenz des Klimawandels. Entscheidungstraegern und ihren individuellen Ueberzeugungen muss daher in der internationalen Politik eine staerkere Bedeutung zukommen.

  6. Climate-related changes of soil characteristics affect bacterial community composition and function of high altitude and latitude lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rofner, Carina; Peter, Hannes; Catalán, Núria; Drewes, Fabian; Sommaruga, Ruben; Pérez, María Teresa

    2017-06-01

    Lakes at high altitude and latitude are typically unproductive ecosystems where external factors outweigh the relative importance of in-lake processes, making them ideal sentinels of climate change. Climate change is inducing upward vegetation shifts at high altitude and latitude regions that translate into changes in the pools of soil organic matter. Upon mobilization, this allochthonous organic matter may rapidly alter the composition and function of lake bacterial communities. Here, we experimentally simulate this potential climate-change effect by exposing bacterioplankton of two lakes located above the treeline, one in the Alps and one in the subarctic region, to soil organic matter from below and above the treeline. Changes in bacterial community composition, diversity and function were followed for 72 h. In the subarctic lake, soil organic matter from below the treeline reduced bulk and taxon-specific phosphorus uptake, indicating that bacterial phosphorus limitation was alleviated compared to organic matter from above the treeline. These effects were less pronounced in the alpine lake, suggesting that soil properties (phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon availability) and water temperature further shaped the magnitude of response. The rapid bacterial succession observed in both lakes indicates that certain taxa directly benefited from soil sources. Accordingly, the substrate uptake profiles of initially rare bacteria (copiotrophs) indicated that they are one of the main actors cycling soil-derived carbon and phosphorus. Our work suggests that climate-induced changes in soil characteristics affect bacterioplankton community structure and function, and in turn, the cycling of carbon and phosphorus in high altitude and latitude aquatic ecosystems. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Community violence exposure and post-traumatic stress reactions among Gambian youth: the moderating role of positive school climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Deborah A; Roberts, William C; Schwab-Stone, Mary E

    2011-01-01

    Community violence exposure among youth can lead to various negative outcomes, including post-traumatic stress symptoms. Research in the Western world indicates that a number of social support factors may moderate the relation between violence exposure and internalizing symptoms. Little research has been carried out in non-Western countries. This study aimed to fill this gap by exploring the relations among violence exposure, parental warmth, positive school climate, and post-traumatic stress reactions among youth in The Republic of The Gambia, Africa. A school-based survey of youth behaviors, feelings, attitudes, and perceptions was administered to 653 students at senior secondary schools in four Gambian communities. Students reported high levels of exposure to violence. Over half of students reported witnessing someone threatened with serious physical harm, beaten up or mugged, attacked or stabbed with a knife/piece of glass, or seriously wounded in an incident of violence. Nearly half of students reported being beaten up or mugged during the past year, and nearly a quarter reported being threatened with serious physical harm. There were no sex differences in levels of exposure. Traumatic stress symptoms were common, especially among females. Both violence witnessing and violent victimization significantly predicted post-traumatic stress symptoms, and positive school climate moderated the relationship. Among youth victimized by violence, positive school climate was most strongly correlated with lower levels of post-traumatic stress at low levels of exposure. Among youth who had witnessed violence, positive school climate was most strongly correlated with lower levels of post-traumatic stress at high levels of exposure. Community-based programs that bring together parents, schools, and youth may play an important role in combating the negative effects of some types of violence exposure among Gambian youth. Youth experiencing high levels of violent victimization

  8. Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the

  9. Impact of Antarctic mixed-phase clouds on climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, R Paul; Gettelman, Andrew

    2014-12-23

    Precious little is known about the composition of low-level clouds over the Antarctic Plateau and their effect on climate. In situ measurements at the South Pole using a unique tethered balloon system and ground-based lidar reveal a much higher than anticipated incidence of low-level, mixed-phase clouds (i.e., consisting of supercooled liquid water drops and ice crystals). The high incidence of mixed-phase clouds is currently poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). As a result, the effects that mixed-phase clouds have on climate predictions are highly uncertain. We modify the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) GCM to align with the new observations and evaluate the radiative effects on a continental scale. The net cloud radiative effects (CREs) over Antarctica are increased by +7.4 Wm(-2), and although this is a significant change, a much larger effect occurs when the modified model physics are extended beyond the Antarctic continent. The simulations show significant net CRE over the Southern Ocean storm tracks, where recent measurements also indicate substantial regions of supercooled liquid. These sensitivity tests confirm that Southern Ocean CREs are strongly sensitive to mixed-phase clouds colder than -20 °C.

  10. A Functional Approach to Zooplankton Communities in Mountain Lakes Stocked With Non-Native Sportfish Under a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redmond, Laura E.; Loewen, Charlie J. G.; Vinebrooke, Rolf D.

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem function likely increase with elevation, thereby possibly placing alpine communities at greatest risk. Here, consideration of species traits enables stressor effects on taxonomic composition to be translated into potential functional impacts. We analyzed data for 47 taxa across 137 mountain lakes and ponds spanning large latitudinal (491 km) and elevational (1,399 m) gradients in western Canada, to assess regional and local factors of the taxonomic composition and functional structure of zooplankton communities. Multivariate community analyses revealed that small body size, clonal reproduction via parthenogenesis, and lack of pigmentation were species traits associated with both introduced non-native sportfish and also environmental conditions reflecting a warmer and drier climate—namely higher water temperatures, shallower water depths, and more chemically concentrated water. Thus, historical introductions of sportfish appear to have potentially induced greater tolerance in zooplankton communities of future climatic warming, especially in previously fishless alpine lakes. Although alpine lake communities occupied a relatively small functional space (i.e., low functional diversity), they were contained within the broader regional functional structure. Therefore, our findings point to the importance of dispersal by lower montane species to the future functional stability of alpine communities.

  11. Framing Climate Change Communication to Prompt Individual and Collective Action among Adolescents from Agricultural Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Kathryn T.; King, Tasha L.; Selm, Kathryn R.; Peterson, M. Nils; Monroe, Martha C.

    2018-01-01

    Climate communication research suggests strategic message framing may help build public consensus on climate change causes, risks and solutions. However, few have investigated how framing applies to adolescents. Similarly, little research has focused on agricultural audiences, who are among the most vulnerable to and least accepting of climate…

  12. Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew Daniel Petrie

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

  13. Abstracts and final report of the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on Sustainability workshop on climate change and coastal communities: concerns and challenges for today and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-11-01

    The participants at this workshop presented important climate change information from a national perspective and provided an opportunity for stakeholder comments on the Southeastern New Brunswick Sea-Level Rise Project. The abstracts presented in this report outlined current research on ocean current variabilities; climate change and coastal erosion impacts in the Gulf of St. Lawrence estuary; and agriculture and climate change. Community focus presentations addressed issues associated with coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise in Haida Gwaii, BC; Inuit observations of climate change; impacts and adaptation to climate change in Atlantic Canada; and communities, fisheries and tourism. Future research orientations from governments were also examined, with information on protection policies for coastal areas; climate change impact and adaptation directorates; climate change scenarios; and potential impacts and possible adaptations to the communities in the region. The studies indicate that the sea level will rise by 70 cm by the year 2100 in the southeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Immediate implementation of New Brunswick's Coastal Areas Protection Policy was recommended. Climate change is an issue that contains ecological, social and economic aspects, linking science to local knowledge. This final report contains 25 abstracts presented at the conference. A participant list and an appendix of the workshop's agenda was also included.

  14. Evaluating a European knowledge hub on climate change in agriculture: Are we building a better connected community?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saetnan, Eli Rudinow; Kipling, Richard Philip

    In order to maintain food security and sustainability of production under climate change, interdisciplinary and international collaboration in research is essential. In the EU, knowledge hubs are important funding instruments for the development of an interconnected European Research Area. Here, network analysis was used to assess whether the pilot knowledge hub MACSUR has affected interdisciplinary collaboration, using co-authorship of peer reviewed articles as a measure of collaboration. The broad community of all authors identified as active in the field of agriculture and climate change was increasingly well connected over the period studied. Between knowledge hub members, changes in network parameters suggest an increase in collaborative interaction beyond that expected due to network growth, and greater than that found in the broader community. Given that interdisciplinary networks often take several years to have an impact on research outputs, these changes within the relatively new MACSUR community provide evidence that the knowledge hub structure has been effective in stimulating collaboration. However, analysis showed that knowledge hub partners were initially well-connected, suggesting that the initiative may have gathered together researchers with particular resources or inclinations towards collaborative working. Long term, consistent funding and ongoing reflection to improve networking structures may be necessary to sustain the early positive signs from MACSUR, to extend its success to a wider community of researchers, or to repeat it in less connected fields of science. Tackling complex challenges such as climate change will require research structures that can effectively support and utilise the diversity of talents beyond the already well-connected core of scientists at major research institutes. But network research shows that this core, well-connected group are vital brokers in achieving wider integration.

  15. Divergence of dominant factors in soil microbial communities and functions in forest ecosystems along a climatic gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiwei; Yu, Guirui; Zhang, Xinyu; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Qiufeng; Wang, Shengzhong; Xu, Xiaofeng; Wang, Ruili; Zhao, Ning

    2018-03-01

    Soil microorganisms play an important role in regulating nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Most of the studies conducted thus far have been confined to a single forest biome or have focused on one or two controlling factors, and few have dealt with the integrated effects of climate, vegetation, and soil substrate availability on soil microbial communities and functions among different forests. In this study, we used phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) analysis to investigate soil microbial community structure and extracellular enzymatic activities to evaluate the functional potential of soil microbes of different types of forests in three different climatic zones along the north-south transect in eastern China (NSTEC). Both climate and forest type had significant effects on soil enzyme activities and microbial communities with considerable interactive effects. Except for soil acid phosphatase (AP), the other three enzyme activities were much higher in the warm temperate zone than in the temperate and the subtropical climate zones. The soil total PLFAs and bacteria were much higher in the temperate zone than in the warm temperate and the subtropical zones. The soil β-glucosidase (BG) and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activities were highest in the coniferous forest. Except for the soil fungi and fungi-bacteria (F/B), the different groups of microbial PLFAs were much higher in the conifer broad-leaved mixed forests than in the coniferous forests and the broad-leaved forests. In general, soil enzyme activities and microbial PLFAs were higher in primary forests than in secondary forests in temperate and warm temperate regions. In the subtropical region, soil enzyme activities were lower in the primary forests than in the secondary forests and microbial PLFAs did not differ significantly between primary and secondary forests. Different compositions of the tree species may cause variations in soil microbial communities and enzyme activities. Our results

  16. Network Connectedness, Sense of Community, and Risk Perception of Climate Change Professionals in the Pacific Islands Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlew, L. K.; Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

    2013-12-01

    The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program conducted social network analysis research of climate change professionals (broadly defined) who are from or work in Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region. This study is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) to address an identified need for a resource that quantifies the region's collaborative network of climate change professionals, and that supports the further development of cross-regional and inter-sectoral collaborations for future research and adaptation activities. A survey was distributed to nearly 1,200 people who are from and/or work in climate change related fields in the region. The Part One Survey questions (not confidential) created a preferential attachment network by listing major players in Hawaii and the USAPI, with additional open fields to identify important contacts in the greater professional network. Participants (n=340) identified 975 network contacts and frequency of communications (weekly, monthly, seasonally, yearly, at least once ever). Part Two Survey questions (confidential, n=302) explored climate change risk perceptions, Psychological Sense of Community (PSOC), sense of control over climate change impacts, sense of responsibility to act, policy beliefs and preferences regarding climate change actions, concern and optimism scales about specific impacts, and demographic information. Graphical representations of the professional network are being developed for release in September 2013 as a free online tool to promote and assist collaboration building among climate professionals in the region. The graphs are partitioned according to network 'hubs' (high centrality), participant location, and profession to clearly identify network strengths and opportunities for future collaborations across spatial and professional boundaries. For additional

  17. Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Azim, Syed; Milton, Abul Hasnat

    2016-03-15

    Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC). A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples' knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health. In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge. The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6% had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60%), and only 10% earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.). The majority of the participants (54.2%) had some knowledge about CC but 45.8% did not (p change of climate (83.2%). Among all the respondents (n = 6720), 94.5% perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9%) observed change in rainfall patterns in the last 10 years, and 97

  18. Detection of 10B distributions in histological samples by NCAR using thermal and cold neutrons and photoluminiscent imaging plates. New results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rant, J.; Skvarc, J.; Ilic, R.; Gabel, D.; Bayon, G.; Yanagie, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Lehmann, E.; Kuehne, G.

    1999-01-01

    The Neutron Capture Autoradiography (NCAR) using various Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (SSNTDs) is a well established and accurate method to detect and measure the distributions of 10 B in the ppm range on macroscopic and microscopic level in biological samples, such as histological sections of tumours loaded with 10 B compounds used for BNCT (e.g. 1,2). recently a new technique of NCAR using sensitive photoluminescent Imaging Plates (IP) has been proposed to detect 10 B distributions in histological sections (3), exploiting excellent detection properties of IP systems such as very high detection sensitivity and quantum detection efficiency, broad linear response and dynamic range, very small image distortion, reusability of IP and possibilities of digital autoradiography. The advantage of IP-NCAR vs. NCAR with SSNTDs should be the much lower neutron fluence (10 7 10 9 vs. 10 10 10 13 n/cm 2 with SSNTDs), no intermediate chemical treatment (track etching) and direct and fast compuitational handling and evaluation of the digitized autoradiographic image. However, the spatial resolution of the present available IP detection systems is somewhat lower (∼ 0,04 mm) than with SSNTDs (∼ 0,01 mm). Another problem with IP NCAR is rather high sensitivity of IP to all types of ionizing radiations. Therefore the background of direct and induced gamma-rays as well as of epithermal and fast neutrons has to be filtered out of thermal neutron beam to be used for IP-NCAR. To improve the signal/background ratio and to increase the detectibility of 10 B we propose to use clean cold neutron beams for the IP-NCAR of 10 B distributions in histological samples in BNCT experiments (4,5). In the present work the recent results of experiments in IP-NCAR with cold neutrons from the neutron radiographic channel of the ORPHEE reactor in Saclay and with the rather clean thermal neutron beam of the NEUTRA neutron radiography facility of the PSI (Villingen) will be presented. For the

  19. Climate Change and Thawing Permafrost in Two Iñupiaq Communities of Alaska's Arctic: Observations, Implications, and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, A.; Kofinas, G.

    2013-12-01

    For thousands of years the Iñupiat of northern Alaska have relied on ecosystems underlain by permafrost for material and cultural resources. As permafrost thaws across the Arctic, these social-ecological systems are changing rapidly. Community-based research and extensive local knowledge of Iñupiaq villagers offer unique and valuable contributions to understanding permafrost change and its implications for humans. We partnered with two Iñupiaq communities in Alaska's Arctic to investigate current and potential effects of thawing permafrost on social-ecological systems. Anaktuvuk Pass is situated on thaw-stable consolidated gravel in the Brooks Range, while Selawik rests on ice-rich permafrost in Beringia lowland tundra. Using the transdisciplinary approach of resilience theory and mixed geophysical and ethnographic methods, we measured active layer thaw depths and documented local knowledge about climate and permafrost change. Thaw depths were greater overall in Selawik. Residents of both communities reported a variety of changes in surface features, hydrology, weather, flora, and fauna that they attribute to thawing permafrost and / or climate change. Overall, Selawik residents described more numerous and extreme examples of such changes, expressed higher degrees of certainty that change is occurring, and anticipated more significant and negative implications for their way of life than did residents of Anaktuvuk Pass. Of the two villages, Selawik faces greater and more immediate challenges to the resilience of its social-ecological system as permafrost thaws.

  20. How will coral reef fish communities respond to climate-driven disturbances? Insight from landscape-scale perturbations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Thomas C; Brooks, Andrew J; Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Washburn, Libe; Bernardi, Giacomo

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change is rapidly altering disturbance regimes in many ecosystems including coral reefs, yet the long-term impacts of these changes on ecosystem structure and function are difficult to predict. A major ecosystem service provided by coral reefs is the provisioning of physical habitat for other organisms, and consequently, many of the effects of climate change on coral reefs will be mediated by their impacts on habitat structure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand the independent and combined effects of coral mortality and loss of physical habitat on reef-associated biota. Here, we use a unique series of events affecting the coral reefs around the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia to differentiate between the impacts of coral mortality and the degradation of physical habitat on the structure of reef fish communities. We found that, by removing large amounts of physical habitat, a tropical cyclone had larger impacts on reef fish communities than an outbreak of coral-eating sea stars that caused widespread coral mortality but left the physical structure intact. In addition, the impacts of declining structural complexity on reef fish assemblages accelerated as structure became increasingly rare. Structure provided by dead coral colonies can take up to decades to erode following coral mortality, and, consequently, our results suggest that predictions based on short-term studies are likely to grossly underestimate the long-term impacts of coral decline on reef fish communities.

  1. Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

  2. Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

  3. Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    ...) motivations and actions. The most effective responses are those with a holistic, integrated and lon-term approach, addressing both climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on citizen and other local stakeholder involvement...

  4. Understanding smallholder farmers’ capacity to respond to climate change in a coastal community in Central Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Phuong, Le Thi Hong; Biesbroek, G.R.; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Wals, Arjen E.J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change as expressed by erratic rainfall, increased flooding, extended droughts, frequency tropical cyclones or saline water intrusion, poses severe threats to smallholder farmers in Vietnam. Adaptation of the agricultural sector is vital to increase the resilience of smallholder farmers’

  5. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  6. Ocean climate data for user community in West and Central Africa: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojo, S. O.

    1992-01-01

    The urgent need to improve data delivery systems needed by scientists studying ocean role in climate and climate characteristics has been manifested in recent years because of the unprecedented climatic events experienced in many parts of the world. Indeed, there has been a striking and growing realization by governments and the general public indicating that national economies and human welfare depend on climate and its variability. In West and Central Africa, for instance climatic events, which have resulted in floods and droughts, have caused a lot of concern to both governments and people of the region. In particular, the droughts have been so widespread that greater awareness and concern have become generated for the need to find solutions to the problems created by the consequences of the climatic events. Particularly in the southern border regions of the Sahara Desert as well as in the Sahel region, the drought episodes considerably reduced food production and led to series of socioeconomic problems, not only in the areas affected by the droughts, but also in the other parts of West Africa. The various climatic variabilities which have caused the climatic events are no doubt related to the ocean-atmosphere interactions. Unfortunately, not much has been done on the understanding of these interactions, particularly as they affect developing countries. Indeed, not much has been done to develop programs which will reflect the general concerns and needs for researching into the ocean-atmosphere systems and their implications on man-environmental systems in many developing countries. This is for example, true of West and Central Africa, where compared with the middle latitude countries, much less is known about the characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere systems and their significance on man-environmental systems of the area.

  7. Carbon finance and pro-poor co-benefits: The Gold Standard and Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Rachel

    2011-04-15

    This paper assesses the practical contribution of the Gold Standard (GS) and Climate Community and Biodiversity (CCB) Standards to local development through the identification of high quality carbon offset projects and ensuring high standards of consultation with local communities during project development and implementation. It is based on desk research, involving analysis of the GS and CCB Standards' project databases, project design documents, and secondary literature. In addition, over 20 representatives of the two standards systems, project developers, NGO representatives, and researchers were interviewed. The paper concludes that both standard systems successfully reward high quality projects which have a demonstrated commitment to local consultations and sustainable development benefits. Moreover, they serve to give well-meaning project developers frameworks with which to ensure that a wide range of criteria are considered in planning and implementing projects. As voluntary standards, it is unrealistic to expect either the GS or CCB Standards to improve poor-quality or unsustainable projects.

  8. Carbon finance and pro-poor co-benefits: The Gold Standard and Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Rachel

    2011-04-15

    This paper assesses the practical contribution of the Gold Standard (GS) and Climate Community and Biodiversity (CCB) Standards to local development through the identification of high quality carbon offset projects and ensuring high standards of consultation with local communities during project development and implementation. It is based on desk research, involving analysis of the GS and CCB Standards' project databases, project design documents, and secondary literature. In addition, over 20 representatives of the two standards systems, project developers, NGO representatives, and researchers were interviewed. The paper concludes that both standard systems successfully reward high quality projects which have a demonstrated commitment to local consultations and sustainable development benefits. Moreover, they serve to give well-meaning project developers frameworks with which to ensure that a wide range of criteria are considered in planning and implementing projects. As voluntary standards, it is unrealistic to expect either the GS or CCB Standards to improve poor-quality or unsustainable projects.

  9. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  10. Climate-induced signatures in the zooplankton communities: a meta-analysis at a European scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sónia Cotrim Marques

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Several recent studies have revealed the impacts of the climate variability in the dynamic of zooplankton in different estuarine ecosystems, imposing a need for more and continued global studies. Presently, there is a growing appreciation in international collaborations to compare and contrast estuarine ecosystem response to climate variability across geographical gradients, including long-term changes in zooplankton. We performed a meta-analysis comprising field data from 7 location (Mondego estuary-Portugal, Seine estuary- France, Sheldt estuary- Belgium, Kiel fjord - Germany, Gulf of Riga- Latvia, Gulf of Bothnia – Sweden and Finland Archipelagos. The use of climatic modes (e.g. NAO, ENSO has proven useful in investigating links between climatic variations and ecological patterns. Therefore, the main focus will be to test the influence of the NAO on abundance of organisms, key species, local environment and whether these relationships are generally positive, whether they are sensitive to methodological differences among studies, between taxonomic group and key species. The knowledge gained will contribute to quantitatively evaluate the multi-scale structure of climate and marine environment and to identify a set of environmental indicators to assess the estuarine ecosystem state and risks for ecological shifts.

  11. Organizational Climate and Emotional Intelligence: An Appreciative Inquiry into a "Leaderful" Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, Debra Marie

    2005-01-01

    In an era of unprecedented challenges and rapid change, community colleges need effective leadership that brings out the best in people, organizations, and communities. This qualitative study was based on interpretive research using appreciative inquiry (AI). AI is based on social constructivist theory and is a collaborative and highly…

  12. Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

  13. Effective Social Media Practices for Communicating Climate Change Science to Community Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, M.; DeBenedict, C.; Bruce, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate Education Partners (CEP) uses an action research approach to increase climate knowledge and informed decision-making among key influential (KI) leaders in San Diego county. Social media has been one method for disseminating knowledge. During CEP's project years, social media use has proliferated. To capitalize on this trend, CEP iteratively developed a strategic method to engage KIs. First, as with all climate education, CEP identified the audience. Three primary Facebook and Twitter audiences were CEP's internal team, local KIs, and strategic partner organizations. Second, post contents were chosen based on interest to CEP key audiences and followed CEP's communications message triangle, which incorporates the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI). This message triangle focuses on San Diegan's valued quality of life, future challenges we face due to the changing climate, and ways in which we are working together to protect our quality of life for future generations. Third, an editorial calendar was created to carefully time posts, which capitalize on when target audiences were using social media most and to maintain consistency. The results of these three actions were significant. Results attained utilizing Facebook and Twitter data, which tracks post reach, total followers/likes, and engagement (likes, comments, mentions, shares). For example we found that specifically mentioning KIs resulted in more re-tweets and resulted in reaching a broader audience. Overall, data shows that CEP's reach to audiences of like-minded individuals and organizations now extends beyond CEP's original local network and reached more than 20,000 accounts on Twitter this year (compared with 460 on Twitter the year before). In summary, through posting and participating in the online conversation strategically, CEP disseminated key educational climate resources and relevant climate change news to educate and engage target audience and amplify our work.

  14. Diverse coral communities in mangrove habitats suggest a novel refuge from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Kimberly K.; Rogers, Caroline S.; Herlan, James J.; Brooks, Gregg R.; Smiley, Nathan A.; Larson, Rebekka A.

    2014-01-01

    Risk analyses indicate that more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by climate change and local anthropogenic impacts by the year 2030 under "business-as-usual" climate scenarios. Increasing temperatures and solar radiation cause coral bleaching that has resulted in extensive coral mortality. Increasing carbon dioxide reduces seawater pH, slows coral growth, and may cause loss of reef structure. Management strategies include establishment of marine protected areas with environmental conditions that promote reef resiliency. However, few resilient reefs have been identified, and resiliency factors are poorly defined. 

  15. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

    2014-01-01

    Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

  16. Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory L Hodd

    Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need

  17. Climate-vegetation relationship: adaptations of jarillal community to the semiarid climate. Lihué Calel National Park, province of La Pampa, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Soledad Duval

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The study of vegetation from the Geography perspective focuses on the analysis of the spatial distribution and on the factors affecting it. One of these factors is the climate, which determines the characteristics of the vegetation and, on a larger scale, of the communities. The aim of this paper is to analyze the climate-vegetation relationship by studying adaptations of the jarillal community regarding the semiarid climate in the Lihué Calel National Park, Argentina. Therefore, this contribution is concerned with the knowledge of the characteristics of the environment in order to understand how vegetation responds to certain phenomena, so management of protected areas will be more suitable. Lihué Calel National Park is a national protected area located in the south-center of La Pampa province, Argentina. According to Cabrera (1976 the area belongs to the floristic province of “monte” and the climate is warm and dry. In the interest to achieve the goals of this paper, Thornthwaite and Mather´s water balance was done. The data was collected from a weather station that belongs to the national park, for the period 1995-2010. Emberger›s pluviothermic coefficient, Lang´s rainfall index, De Martonne´s aridity index and Currey´s continentality index were analyzed. In addition, ten stands or plots of vegetation were placed to determine the floristic composition and the vegetation physiognomy. Then, plants species were identified as individuals and their adaptive responses were also analyzed. In conclusion, the survey verified that semi-arid climate conditions determine the morphology and the appearance of jarillal. Climate analysis shows that for the period 1995-2010 the average annual temperature is 16.2° C and reveals that thermal summers and winters are well differentiated. Large water deficit is defined, because water balance indicates that the evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during every month of the year. According to

  18. Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rykken, Jessica; Rodman, Ann; Droege, Sam; Grundel, Ralph

    2014-01-01

    In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

  19. The impact of state certification of community health workers on team climate among registered nurses in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemon, Mark; Shuster, Geoff; Boursaw, Blake

    2015-04-01

    A number of states have adopted certification programs for community health workers (CHWs) to improve recognition of CHWs as members of health care teams, increase oversight, and to provide sustainable funding. There has been little research into the impact of state CHW certification on the diffusion and adoption of CHWs into existing health care systems. This study examined the impact of state CHW certification on the perceptions of team climate among registered nurses (RNs) who work with CHWs in states with and without CHW certification programs. The study recruited RNs using a purposeful sampling method and used an online survey, which included the Team Climate Inventory (TCI), and compared the perceptions of team climate between the two groups. The study found no significant differences in the overall mean TCI score or TCI subscale scores between RNs who work in states with CHW certification programs (n = 81) and those who work in states without CHW certification programs (n = 115). There was a statistically significant difference on one survey question regarding whether RNs believe state certification of CHWs improved the ability of their health care team to deliver quality care. More research is needed to assess impact of state certification of CHWs and other factors that influence the diffusion and adoption of CHWs into the current health care system.

  20. Using a community-driven approach to identify local forest and climate change priorities in Teslin, Yukon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joleen Timko

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The likelihood of addressing the complex environmental, economic, and social/cultural issues associated with local climate change impacts is enhanced when collaborative partnerships with local people are established. Using a community-centered approach in the Teslin region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, we utilized our research skills to respond to local needs for information by facilitating both an internal community process to clarify traditional and local knowledge, values, and perceptions on locally identified priorities, while gathering external information to enable local people to make sound decisions. Specifically, we sought to clarify local perceptions surrounding climate change impacts on fire risk and wildlife habitat, and the potential adaptation strategies appropriate and feasible within the Teslin Tlingit Traditional Territory. This paper provides a characterization of the study region and our project team; provides background on the interview and data collection process; presents our key results; and discusses the importance of our findings and charts a way forward for our continued work with the people in the Teslin region. This approach presents an excellent opportunity to help people holistically connect a range of local values, including fire risk mitigation, habitat enhancement, economic development, and enhanced social health.

  1. Implementing Climate-Compatible Development in the Context of Power: Lessons for Encouraging Procedural Justice through Community-Based Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin T. Wood

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate-compatible development (CCD is being operationalised across the developing world through projects that integrate development, adaptation and mitigation using community-based approaches—community-based CCD (CB-CCD. By incorporating and considering local people’s concerns, these projects are positioned as more effective, efficient and sustainable than ‘top-down’ climate and development solutions. However, the literature pays little attention to whether and how these projects achieve procedural justice by recognising local people’s identities, cultures and values; and providing local people with meaningful participatory opportunities. We address this gap through an analysis of two donor-funded CB-CCD projects in Malawi, drawing on household surveys, semi-structured interviews and documentary materials. Our findings show that the projects had only limited success in facilitating procedural justice for the target populations. Households’ meaningful engagement in project activities and decision-making was often curtailed because power asymmetries went unchallenged. While many households were well engaged in projects, the recognition and participation of others—including many of the most vulnerable households—was limited. Building on our findings, we present a six-step approach to help CB-CCD project staff understand, manage and challenge power asymmetries; and create widespread recognition of, and meaningful participatory opportunities for, local people.

  2. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  3. Understanding the interactions between Social Capital, climate change, and community resilience in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, C.; Blomberg, B.; Kolker, A.; Nguyen, U.; Page, C. M.; Sherchan, S. P.; Tobias, V. D.; Wu, H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico are facing new and complex challenges as their physical environment is altered by climate warming and sea level rise. To effectively prepare for environmental changes, coastal communities must build resilience in both physical structures and social structures. One measure of social structure resilience is how much social capital a community possesses. Social capital is defined as the connections among individuals which result in networks with shared norms, values and understandings that facilitate cooperation within or among groups. Social capital exists in three levels; bonding, bridging and linking. Bonding social capital is a measure of the strength of relationships amongst members of a network who are similar in some form. Bridging social capital is a measure of relationships amongst people who are dissimilar in some way, such as age, education, or race/ethnicity. Finally Linking social capital measures the extent to which individuals build relationships with institutions and individuals who have relative power over them (e.g local government, educational institutions). Using census and American Community Survey data, we calculated a Social Capital index value for bonding, bridging and linking for 60 Gulf of Mexico coastal counties for the years 2000, and 2010 to 2015. To investigate the impact of social capital on community resilience we coupled social capital index values with physical datasets of land-use/land cover, sea level change, climate, elevation and surface water quality for each coastal county in each year. Preliminary results indicate that in Gulf of Mexico coastal counties, increased bonding social capital results in decreased population change. In addition, we observed a multi-year time lag in the effect of increased bridging social capital on population stability, potentially suggesting key linkages between the physical and social environment in this complex coupled-natural human system. This

  4. Vulnerability of Permafrost Soil Carbon to Climate Warming: Evaluating Controls on Microbial Community Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract: Despite the fact that permafrost soils contain up to half of the carbon (C) in terrestrial pools, we have a poor understanding of the controls on decomposition in thawed permafrost. Global climate models assume that decomposition increases linearly with temperature, yet decomposition in th...

  5. Vulnerability to climate change and community based adaptation in the Peruvian Andes, a stepwise approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lasage, R.; Muis, S.; Sardella, C.S.E.; van Drunen, M.A.; Verburg, P.H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2015-01-01

    The livelihoods of people in the Andes are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on glacier water. The observed decrease in glacier volume over the last few decades is likely to accelerate during the current century, which will affect water availability in the region.

  6. Investigation of rotated PCA from the perspective of network communities applied to climate data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Vejmelka, Martin; Paluš, Milan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 15, - (2013), s. 13124 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2013. 07.04.2013-12.04.2013, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : complex networks * graph theory * climate dynamics Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  7. Sinks and sources : a strategy to involve forest communities in Tanzania in global climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zahabu, E.M.

    2008-01-01

    At present only the sink ability of forest to sequester atmospheric CO2 through establishing new forests is credited under the current UNFCCC climate change mitigation mechanisms in developing countries, i.e. the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Other forest practices such as

  8. Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the late ordovician mass extinction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sheets, H. D.; Melchin, M. J.; Loxton, J.; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, K. L.; Hawkins, A. D.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 113, č. 30 (2016), s. 8380-8385 ISSN 0027-8424 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA301110908 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : abundance * climate change * extinction * macroevolution * selection Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 9.661, year: 2016

  9. Community based ecological restoration of peatland in Central Mongolia for climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minayeva, Tatiana; Chultem, Dugarjav; Grootjans, Ab; Yamkhin, Jambaljav; Sirin, Andrey; Suvorov, Gennady; Batdorj, Oyunbileg; Tsamba, Batdorj

    2017-01-01

    Peatlands cover almost 2 % of Mongolia. They play crucial role in regulation of key natural processes in ecosystems and provide unique resources to maintain traditional way of life and livelihoods of herders. During the last decades, Mongolian peatlands severely degraded both due to the climate

  10. Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

    2011-12-01

    Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Unjust waters. Climate change, flooding and the protection of poor urban communities. Experiences from six African cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-02-01

    Floods are natural phenomena, but damage and losses from floods are the consequence of human action. The increasing climatic variability, storminess and more frequent flooding driven by climate change will affect poor urban communities far more than other people living in towns and cities. Although driven by human activities ranging from modernisation and development to land degradation by poor farmers and grazing flocks, climate change in Africa has uneven impacts, affecting the poor severely. Flooding in urban areas is not just related to heavy rainfall and extreme climatic events; it is also related to changes in the built-up areas themselves. Urbanisation aggravates flooding by restricting where floods waters can go, by covering large parts of the ground with roofs, roads and pavements, by obstructing sections of natural channels, and by building drains that ensure that water moves to rivers more rapidly than it did under natural conditions. As people crowd into African cities, these human impacts on urban land surfaces and drainage intensify. The proportions of small stream and river catchment areas that are urbanised will increase. As a result, even quite moderate storms now produce quite high flows in rivers because much more of the catchment area supplies direct surface runoff from its hard surfaces and drains. Where streams flow through a series of culverts and concrete channels, they cannot adjust to changes in the frequency of heavy rain as natural streams do. They often get obstructed by silt and urban debris, particularly when houses are built close to the channels. Such situations frequently arise where poor people build their shelters on low-lying flood plains, over swamps or above the tidewater on the coast. The effects of climate change are superimposed on these people-driven local land surface modifications. The links between changes in land use and in heavy rainfall patterns, the frequency and depth of flooding and the problems of the urban poor

  12. Implications of climate change on human comfort in buildings: evidence from Nkontompo community of Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amos-Abanyie, S. [Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science and Technology, Kumasi (GH)

    2006-07-01

    Climate change has become the most talked about issue in recent times. The impact of climate change is likely to become more evident in the coming decades. Currently, atmospheric conditions, especially in the dry season, are getting hotter and drier with increased heat waves. Increased demand for air conditioning for space cooling as a result of internal discomfort in buildings is already manifesting. This could put an additional stress on the already over-burdened energy capactiy of the nation. The study on implications of climate change on human comfort in buidlings was conducted in Nkontompo community, a suburb of Sekondi-Takoradi Metropolitan area of the Shama-Ahanta District of the Western Region of Ghana. The objectives of this study are to assemble and disseminate information about some of the possible impacts of climate change on the built environment. This is to set the platform for building professionals to identify possible adaptive measures to serve as basis for development of standards to maintain and enhance the quality of life in buildings. The results showed that there were significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. A rise in temperature and humidity levels constitutes a potential hazard to health and human comfort and accelerates many degradation processes and material damage. Subsequently, the amount of energy needed to maintain the condition of air in spaces at comfort levels keeps increasing. It is therefore imperative that landlords and other property owners should be effectively guided by qualified professionals within the framework of policy guidelines based on sound research.

  13. Accessing Both Halves of the Brain to Make Climate Decisions: How Community-Sourced Media, Earth Remote Sensing Data, and Creative Placemaking Art Can Cultivate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making, science tells us, accesses multiple parts of the brain: both logic and data as well as memory and emotion. It is this mix of signals that propels individuals and communities to act. Founded in 2012, ISeeChange is the nation's first community crowdsourced climate and weather journal that empowers users to document environmental changes with others and discuss the impacts over time. Our neighborhood investigation methodology includes residents documenting their personal experiences alongside collected data, Earth remote sensing data, and local artists interpreting community questions and experiences into place-based public art in the neighborhood to inspire a culture of resilience and climate literacy. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. Our groundbreaking environmental reporting platform—available online and through a mobile app—personalizes and tracks climate change from the perspective of every day experiences, bringing Eearth science home and into the placesspaces people know best and trust most- their own communities Our session will focus on our newest neighborhood pilot program in New Orleans, furthering the climate resilience, green infrastructure, and creative placemaking efforts of the Trust for Public Land, the City of New Orleans, and other resilience community partners.

  14. Leveraging a Community Participatory Framework to Move Climate Survey Data into Action at a Small College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, C. Ellen; Benitez, Michael, Jr.

    2017-01-01

    A participatory framework in conducting research and implementing decisions can engage multiple constituents throughout a college community. At a small college, it is especially relevant, because nonmajority groups are especially vulnerable because of a smaller critical mass.

  15. Shortcuts to sustainable Nordic communities. Experiences from Nordic Climate Festival (at) Aalto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haanpaa, S. (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    Nordic Climate Festival (at) Aalto gathered some 90 Nordic Master's and PhD students to Helsinki and Espoo in late August 2011, to search for shortcuts to sustainable Nordic societies. The students worked in 7 workshop tracks, covering all key fields of sustainable societies, under the guidance of researchers from Aalto University. The workshop turned out to be a success with enthusiastic contribution from dedicated students. The real value of the workshop lies not only in the results however, but also in new ways of thinking about sustainability - both for the students and Aalto staff. Most of all, the event helped to build individual connections and networks people engaged in the topic. In the end, the festival was much more than just a Nordic event; the participants represented over 30 countries in total. This can only be seen as a richness in ways of looking at climate change related challenges and especially solutions that, although always being operationalized on a local level and in a local context, in the end are common challenges to all countries in one form or another. The core challenge in dealing with climate change, especially on mitigation, is time. As the level of global greenhouse gas emissions keeps on growing, we desperately need new policies and practices to turn this trend around. At the same time inertia both in natural phenomena and in changing our lifestyles means that global temperatures based on current emissions only will keep on rising for decades to come. This forces us to think of ways to adapt to unavoidable consequences of climate change and adaptation to them, despite the success of mitigation policies. Both aspects of managing climate change require forward oriented thinking already today, so that we can avoid being locked into unsustainable development pathways at the very least - a thing one might argue in many cases is already slowing mitigation efforts down. Therefore the key question the workshop set to study was: can we

  16. City carbon budgets: A proposal to align incentives for climate-friendly communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salon, Deborah; Sperling, Daniel; Meier, Alan; Murphy, Sinnott; Gorham, Roger; Barrett, James

    2010-01-01

    Local governments can have a large effect on carbon emissions through land use zoning, building codes, transport infrastructure investments, and support for transportation alternatives. This paper proposes a climate policy instrument - city carbon budgets - that provides a durable framework for local governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments would be assigned an emissions 'budget', and would be required to keep annual local transport and buildings emissions within this budget. This policy framework could be implemented and managed by a higher-level government, or might be used in awarding funds to developing country cities from international climate funds. The state of California has enacted a version of this policy. In this paper, we identify and evaluate options for creating an effective and acceptable institutional structure, allocating emission targets to localities, measuring emissions, providing flexibility and incentives to local governments, and assuring compliance. We also discuss the likely costs of such a policy.

  17. Shortcuts to sustainable Nordic communities. Experiences from Nordic Climate Festival (at) Aalto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haanpaa, S [ed.

    2011-07-01

    Nordic Climate Festival (at) Aalto gathered some 90 Nordic Master's and PhD students to Helsinki and Espoo in late August 2011, to search for shortcuts to sustainable Nordic societies. The students worked in 7 workshop tracks, covering all key fields of sustainable societies, under the guidance of researchers from Aalto University. The workshop turned out to be a success with enthusiastic contribution from dedicated students. The real value of the workshop lies not only in the results however, but also in new ways of thinking about sustainability - both for the students and Aalto staff. Most of all, the event helped to build individual connections and networks people engaged in the topic. In the end, the festival was much more than just a Nordic event; the participants represented over 30 countries in total. This can only be seen as a richness in ways of looking at climate change related challenges and especially solutions that, although always being operationalized on a local level and in a local context, in the end are common challenges to all countries in one form or another. The core challenge in dealing with climate change, especially on mitigation, is time. As the level of global greenhouse gas emissions keeps on growing, we desperately need new policies and practices to turn this trend around. At the same time inertia both in natural phenomena and in changing our lifestyles means that global temperatures based on current emissions only will keep on rising for decades to come. This forces us to think of ways to adapt to unavoidable consequences of climate change and adaptation to them, despite the success of mitigation policies. Both aspects of managing climate change require forward oriented thinking already today, so that we can avoid being locked into unsustainable development pathways at the very least - a thing one might argue in many cases is already slowing mitigation efforts down. Therefore the key question the workshop set to study was: can we find

  18. Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

    OpenAIRE

    Md Mahmudul Haque; Prasanna Egodawatta; Ataur Rahman; Ashantha Goonetilleke

    2015-01-01

    Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The resul...

  19. Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Access to Ecosystem Services in Rural Alaska: Enhancing the Science through Community Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, T. J.; Cold, H.; Brown, D. N.; Brown, C.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Verbyla, D.

    2017-12-01

    In Arctic-Boreal regions, studies quantifying the characteristics and prevalence of environmental disruptions to access to ecosystem services are lacking. Empirical investigations are needed to assess the vulnerability of rural communities to climate change. We integrated community-based local observation (9 Interior Alaska Communities), field-based ground measurements, and remote sensing data to: 1) identify and prioritize the relative importance of different environmental changes affecting access, 2) characterize the biophysical causes and mechanisms related to access, and 3) evaluate long-term (30 year) trends in the environment that are challenging access. Dynamic winter ice and snow conditions (e.g., dangerous ice travel; n =147) were the most commonly reported cause of disturbance to access, followed by changes in summer hydrology (e.g., river navigability; n = 77) and seasonal shifts in freeze/thaw cycles (n = 31). Supporting local observations, our remote-sensing analysis indicated a trend toward environmental conditions that hinder or disrupt traditional uses of ecosystem services. For example, we found that the window of safe travel on ice has narrowed by approximately 2 weeks since the 1980s. Shifts in travel have implications on the effectiveness of subsistence activities, such as winter trapping and spring waterfowl hunting. From a methods perspective, we implemented a study design that generated novel science while also addressing locally relevant issues. Our approach and findings highlight opportunities for connecting biophysical science with societal concerns.

  20. Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Iqbal Kabir

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC. A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples’ knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health. Methods In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS. Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge. Results The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6 % had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60 %, and only 10 % earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.. The majority of the participants (54.2 % had some knowledge about CC but 45.8 % did not (p < 0.001. The majority of knowledgeable participants (n = 3645 felt excessive temperature as the change of climate (83.2 %. Among all the

  1. Climate change adaptation planning for the Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada: A combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, J. R.; Kaplan, J. O.; Matthews, R.; Sydneysmith, R.; Tesluk, J.; Piggot, G.; Robinson, D. C.; Brinkman, D.; Marmorek, D.; Cohen, S.; McPherson, K.

    2011-12-01

    The Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada is among the world's most important commercial forest production areas, a key transportation corridor, and provides critical habitat for salmon and other wildlife. Climate change compounds threats to the region from other local environmental and social challenges. To aid local communities in adaptive planning for future climate change impacts, our project combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement in a participatory approach to build regional capacity to prepare and respond to climate change. The sociological aspect of our study interviewed local leaders and resource managers (both First Nations and settlers groups in three communities) to examine how perceptions of environmental and socioeconomic issues have changed in the recent past, and the values placed on diverse natural resources at the present. The three communities differed in their perception of the relative value and condition of community resources, such as small business, natural resource trade, education and local government. However, all three communities regarded salmon as their most important and threatened resource. The most important future drivers of change in the study region were perceived to be: "aboriginal rights, title and treaty settlements", "availability of natural resources", "natural resource policies", and the "global economy". Climate change, as a potential driver of change in the region, was perceived as less important than other socio-economic factors; even though climate records for the region already demonstrate warmer winters, decreased snowfall, and decreased spring precipitation over the last half century. The natural science component of our project applies a regional-scale dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to simulate the potential future of forest ecosystems, with a focus on how climate change and management strategy interact to influence forest productivity, disturbance frequency, species

  2. Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

    2017-12-01

    Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

  3. Local environment rather than past climate determines community composition of mountain stream macroinvertebrates across Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Múrria, Cesc; Bonada, Núria; Vellend, Mark; Zamora-Muñoz, Carmen; Alba-Tercedor, Javier; Sainz-Cantero, Carmen Elisa; Garrido, Josefina; Acosta, Raul; El Alami, Majida; Barquín, Jose; Derka, Tomáš; Álvarez-Cabria, Mario; Sáinz-Bariain, Marta; Filipe, Ana F; Vogler, Alfried P

    2017-11-01

    Community assembly is determined by a combination of historical events and contemporary processes that are difficult to disentangle, but eco-evolutionary mechanisms may be uncovered by the joint analysis of species and genetic diversity across multiple sites. Mountain streams across Europe harbour highly diverse macroinvertebrate communities whose composition and turnover (replacement of taxa) among sites and regions remain poorly known. We studied whole-community biodiversity within and among six mountain regions along a latitudinal transect from Morocco to Scandinavia at three levels of taxonomic hierarchy: genus, species and haplotypes. Using DNA barcoding of four insect families (>3100 individuals, 118 species) across 62 streams, we found that measures of local and regional diversity and intraregional turnover generally declined slightly towards northern latitudes. However, at all hierarchical levels we found complete (haplotype) or high (species, genus) turnover among regions (and even among sites within regions), which counters the expectations of Pleistocene postglacial northward expansion from southern refugia. Species distributions were mostly correlated with environmental conditions, suggesting a strong role of lineage- or species-specific traits in determining local and latitudinal community composition, lineage diversification and phylogenetic community structure (e.g., loss of Coleoptera, but not Ephemeroptera, at northern sites). High intraspecific genetic structure within regions, even in northernmost sites, reflects species-specific dispersal and demographic histories and indicates postglacial migration from geographically scattered refugia, rather than from only southern areas. Overall, patterns were not strongly concordant across hierarchical levels, but consistent with the overriding influence of environmental factors determining community composition at the species and genus levels. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. The Worldviews Network: Innovative Strategies for Increasing Climate and Ecological Literacy in Your Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, R.; Yu, K.; McConville, D.; Sickler, J.; "Irving, Lindsay", L. S.; Gardiner, N.; Hamilton, H.

    2011-12-01

    Informal science Institutions (ISI) are in the unique position to convene and support community dialogues surrounding local ecological impacts of global change. The Worldviews Network-a collaboration between museums, scientists, and community-based organizations-is developing and testing innovative approaches for promoting and encouraging ecological literacy with the American public. In this session, we will share strategies for sparking and sustaining dialogue and action in local communities through high-impact visual presentations and real-world examples of successful projects that are increasing the healthy functioning of regional and global ecosystems. Educating the public about interconnected global change issues can be a daunting task. ISIs can help communities by facilitating dialogues about realistic and regionally relevant approaches for systemically addressing global challenges. Managing the complexity of these challenges requires going far beyond the standard prescriptions for behavior change; it requires inspiring participants with positive examples of system-wide solutions as well as actively involving the audience in scientifically informed design processes. This session will demonstrate how you can implement and sustain these community dialogues, using real-world examples from our partners' national events. We present visualization story templates and a model for facilitating dialogues that can be adapted at your institution. Based on video and written assessment feedback from visitors of our first Worldviews events, we will present initial evaluation findings about the impact that these strategies are having on our audiences and ISI partners. These findings show that engaging the public and NGO partners in sustainability and design dialogues is a powerful way to maintain the relevance of ISIs within their communities.

  5. Managing Community Resilience to Climate Extremes, Rapid Unsustainable Urbanization, Emergencies of Scarcity, and Biodiversity Crises by Use of a Disaster Risk Reduction Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Burkle, Frederick M; Speare, Rick

    2015-12-01

    Earth's climate is changing and national and international decision-makers are recognizing that global health security requires urgent attention and a significant investment to protect the future. In most locations, current data are inadequate to conduct a full assessment of the direct and indirect health impacts of climate change. All states require this information to evaluate community-level resilience to climate extremes and climate change. A model that is being used successfully in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand is recommended to generate rapid information to assist decision-makers in the event of a disaster. The model overcomes barriers to success inherent in the traditional ''top-down'' approach to managing crises and recognizes the capacity of capable citizens and community organizers to facilitate response and recovery if provided the opportunity and resources. Local information is a prerequisite for strategic and tactical statewide planning. Time and resources are required to analyze risks within each community and what is required to prevent (mitigate), prepare, respond, recover (rehabilitate), anticipate, and assess any threatening events. Specific requirements at all levels from state to community must emphasize community roles by focusing on how best to maintain, respond, and recover public health protections and the infrastructure necessary for health security.

  6. Developing a Community of Practice through Learning Climate, Leader Support, and Leader Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker-Eveleth, Lori J.; Chung, Yunhyung; Eveleth, Daniel M.; O'Neill, Michele

    2011-01-01

    The Communities of Practice (CoP) concept and the knowledge management literature both provide useful frameworks for conceptualizing how an individual's performance in the classroom (e.g., earning a grade) or in an organization (e.g., solving a client's problem) can be supported by a collection of other individuals performing similar tasks and…

  7. Climate change effects on soil arthropod communities from the Falkland Islands and the maritime Antartic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Huiskes, A.; Convey, P.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Aerts, R.

    2008-01-01

    Over a 2-year study, we investigated the effect of environmental change on the diversity and abundance of soil arthropod communities (Acari and Collembola) in the Maritime Antarctic and the Falkland Islands. Open Top Chambers (OTCs), as used extensively in the framework of the northern boreal

  8. Development of a membrane roofing system with integrated climate control for community shelters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, R.; Cox, M.G.D.M.; Haas, de T.C.A.; Kok, P.J.A.; Hulsbergen, H.S.

    2009-01-01

    In case of calamities and emergencies, shelters offer great relief to large groups of survivors. For community supporting functions the current sheltering solutions are not satisfactory. A humane and feasible solution should be developed to fill this niche. The research group product development has

  9. Local climate determines intra- and interspecific variation in sexual size dimorphism in mountain grasshopper communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, P; Illera, J C; Obeso, J R

    2013-10-01

    The climate is often evoked to explain broad-scale clines of body size, yet its involvement in the processes that generate size inequality in the two sexes (sexual size dimorphism) remains elusive. Here, we analyse climatic clines of sexual size dimorphism along a wide elevation gradient (i) among grasshopper species in a phylogenetically controlled scenario and (ii) within species differing in distribution and cold tolerance, to highlight patterns generated at different time scales, mainly evolutionary (among species or higher taxa) and ontogenetic or microevolutionary (within species). At the interspecific level, grasshoppers were slightly smaller and less dimorphic at high elevations. These clines were associated with gradients of precipitation and sun exposure, which are likely indicators of other factors that directly exert selective pressures, such as resource availability and conditions for effective thermoregulation. Within species, we found a positive effect of temperature and a negative effect of elevation on body size, especially on condition-dependent measures of body size (total body length rather than hind femur length) and in species inhabiting the highest elevations. In spite of a certain degree of species-specific variation, females tended to adjust their body size more often than males, suggesting that body size in females can evolve faster among species and can be more plastic or dependent on nutritional conditions within species living in adverse climates. Natural selection on female body size may therefore prevail over sexual selection on male body size in alpine environments, and abiotic factors may trigger consistent phenotypic patterns across taxonomic scales. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  10. Integrated and Optimized Energy-Efficient Construction Package for a Community of Production Homes in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, J. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Del Bianco, M. [Partnership for Home Innovation, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This research high performance home analyzes how a set of advanced technologies can be integrated into a durable and energy-efficient house in the mixed-humid climate while remaining affordable to homeowners. The technical solutions documented in this report are the cornerstone of the builder's entire business model based on delivering high-performance homes on a production basis as a standard product offering to all price segments of the residential market. Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with production builder Nexus EnergyHomes (CZ 4) and they plan to adopt the successful components of the energy solution package for all 55 homes in the community. The research objective was to optimize the builder's energy solution package based on energy performance and construction costs. All of the major construction features, including envelope upgrades, space conditioning system, hot water system, and solar electric system were analyzed.

  11. Short-term utilization of carbon by the soil microbial community under future climatic conditions in a temperate heathland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Michelsen, Anders; Sárossy, Zsuzsa

    2014-01-01

    An in-situ13C pulse-labeling experiment was carried out in a temperate heath/grassland to study the impacts of elevated CO2 concentration (510ppm), prolonged summer droughts (annual exclusion of 7.6±0.8%) and increased temperature (~1°C) on belowground carbon (C) utilization. Recently assimilated C...... (13C from the pulse-label) was traced into roots, soil and microbial biomass 1, 2 and 8 days after pulse-labeling. The importance of the microbial community in C utilization was investigated using 13C enrichment patterns in different microbial functional groups on the basis of phospholipid fatty acid...... (PLFA) biomarker profiles. Climate treatments did not affect microbial abundance in soil or rhizosphere fractions in terms of total PLFA-C concentration. Elevated CO2 significantly reduced the abundance of gram-negative bacteria (17:0cy), but did not affect the abundance of decomposers (fungi...

  12. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

  13. Building a global federation system for climate change research: the earth system grid center for enabling technologies (ESG-CET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ananthakrishnan, R; Bernholdt, D E; Bharathi, S; Brown, D; Chen, M; Chervenak, A L; Cinquini, L; Drach, R; Foster, I T; Fox, P; Fraser, D; Halliday, K; Hankin, S; Jones, P; Kesselman, C; Middleton, D E; Schwidder, J; Schweitzer, R; Schuler, R; Shoshani, A; Siebenlist, F; Sim, A; Strand, W G; Wilhelmi, N; Su, M; Williams, D N

    2007-01-01

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the US role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading US climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 180 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 250 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single sign-on of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide

  14. A Global Assessment on Climate Research Engaging Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Recommendations for Quality Standards of Research Practice in Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davíd-Chavez, D. M.; Gavin, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Indigenous communities worldwide have maintained their own knowledge systems for millennia informed through careful observation of dynamics of environmental changes. Withstanding centuries of challenges to their rights to maintain and practice these knowledge systems, Indigenous peoples continually speak to a need for quality standards for research in their communities. Although, international and Indigenous peoples' working groups emphasize Indigenous knowledge systems and the communities who hold them as critical resources for understanding and adapting to climate change, there has yet to be a comprehensive, evidence based analysis into how diverse knowledge systems are integrated in scientific studies. Do current research practices challenge or support Indigenous communities in their efforts to maintain and appropriately apply their knowledge systems? This study addresses this question using a systematic literature review and meta-analysis assessing levels of Indigenous community participation and decision-making in all stages of the research process (initiation, design, implementation, analysis, dissemination). Assessment is based on reported quality indicators such as: outputs that serve the community, ethical guidelines in practice (free, prior, and informed consent and intellectual property rights), and community access to findings. These indicators serve to identify patterns between levels of community participation and quality standards in practice. Meta-analysis indicates most climate studies practice an extractive model in which Indigenous knowledge systems are co-opted with minimal participation or decision-making authority from communities who hold them. Few studies report outputs that directly serve Indigenous communities, ethical guidelines in practice, or community access to findings. Studies reporting the most quality indicators were initiated in mutual agreement between Indigenous communities and outside researchers or by communities themselves

  15. Moral Stress, Moral Practice, and Ethical Climate in Community-Based Drug-Use Research: Views From the Front Line.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Celia B; True, Gala; Alexander, Leslie; Fried, Adam L

    2013-01-01

    The role of front-line researchers, those whose responsibilities include face-to-face contact with participants, is critical to ensuring the responsible conduct of community-based drug use research. To date, there has been little empirical examination of how front-line researchers perceive the effectiveness of ethical procedures in their real-world application and the moral stress they may experience when adherence to scientific procedures appears to conflict with participant protections. This study represents a first step in applying psychological science to examine the work-related attitudes, ethics climate, and moral dilemmas experienced by a national sample of 275 front-line staff members whose responsibilities include face-to-face interaction with participants in community-based drug-use research. Using an anonymous Web-based survey we psychometrically evaluated and examined relationships among six new scales tapping moral stress (frustration in response to perceived barriers to conducting research in a morally appropriate manner); organizational ethics climate; staff support; moral practice dilemmas (perceived conflicts between scientific integrity and participant welfare); research commitment; and research mistrust. As predicted, front-line researchers who evidence a strong commitment to their role in the research process and who perceive their organizations as committed to research ethics and staff support experienced lower levels of moral stress. Front-line researchers who were distrustful of the research enterprise and frequently grappled with moral practice dilemmas reported higher levels of moral stress. Applying psychometrically reliable scales to empirically examine research ethics challenges can illuminate specific threats to scientific integrity and human subjects protections encountered by front-line staff and suggest organizational strategies for reducing moral stress and enhancing the responsible conduct of research.

  16. Wrestling with 'doubt-sayers': a first step in leading community-wide climate change action for better health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Jan

    2011-12-01

    Although the evidence base for climate change is indisputable and the potential human health impact is extremely concerning, to date public health professionals are playing little part in influencing community change to accept and act on the science. In reviewing the techniques used to obstruct action on tobacco control by vested interests through constantly raising doubt about the science in this arena, a similar pattern is seen in obstructing action on climate change. It is clear that the raising of unverified doubt is the primary tool employed by profit-driven corporations to prevent constructive action in both these arenas, with the very high potential for the health of the whole population to suffer as a result. Those promoting the health of Australians have a responsibility to optimise health in this regard and need to think differently through embracing complexity science and then take action, with the first step being to provide constant counter-arguments to the unsubstantiated statements of the 'doubt-sayers'.

  17. Effects of organic amendments and mulches on soil microbial communities in quarry restoration under semiarid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna Ramos, Lourdes; Pastorelli, Roberta; Miralles Mellado, Isabel; Fabiani, Arturo; Bastida López, Felipe; Hernández Fernández, María Teresa; García Izquierdo, Carlos; Solé Benet, Albert

    2015-04-01

    Mining activities generate loss of the quality of the environment and landscape specially in arid and semiarid Mediterranean regions. A precondition for ecosystem reclamation in such highly disturbed mining areas is the development of functional soils with appropriate levels of organic matter. In an experimental soil restoration in limestone quarries from Sierra de Gádor (Almería), SE Spain, 9 plots 15 x 5 m were prepared to test organic amendments (compost from solid urban residues-DOW-, sludge from urban water treatment-SS-, control-NA-) and different mulches (fine gravel-GM-, wood chips-WM-, control-NM-) with the aim to improve soil/substrate properties and to reduce evaporation and erosion. In each experimental plot, 75 native plants (Macrochloa tenacissima, Anthyllis terniflora and Anthyllis cytisoides) were planted. After 5 years from the start of the experiment, we evaluated how microbial community composition responded to the organic amendments and mulches. Microbial community composition of both bacteria and fungi was determined by phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) and polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) fingerprinting. The results of the two-way ANOVA showed that PLFAs were significantly affected by organic amendments but not by the mulches or interaction of both factors. Experimental plots with DOW showed significantly higher level of fungal PLFAs than those with SS and NA, even higher than the reference undisturbed soil. However, any plot with organic amendments did not reach the content of bacterial PLFAs of the reference soils. The bacterial diversity (evaluated by diversity indices calculated from DGGE profiles) was greater in soil samples taken under NA and GM. Comparing these indices in fungal DGGE, we found greater values for soil samples taken under DOW and without mulches. Results from UPGMA analysis showed significant differences in the structure of soil bacterial communities from the different treatments

  18. Atmospheric balance of the humidity and estimate of the precipitation recycled in Colombia according to the re-analysis NCEP/NCAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuartas, Adriana; Poveda, German

    2002-01-01

    The magnitudes of the entrance humidity flows and exit are considered and the amount of precipitable water at different levels from the atmospheric column on Colombia. The water balance is quantified in the Colombian atmosphere; the regions and the atmospheric levels of entrance and exit of humidity are identified. The hypothesis that in the long term the net atmospheric humidity influence must be equal to the average of long term of the net run-off is verified. In addition, the percentage of recycled precipitation is considered on the Colombian territory. The variability during the two phases of the ENSO is analyzed. The calculations are made with the information of the climatic project Reanalysis developed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with the collaboration of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Environmental Satellite of the U.S.A. For this work it was counted on monthly information of 41 years between 1958-1998. The hydrological information was obtained from the project Balances Hidrologicos de Colombia, 1999, made by the Posgrado de Recursos Hidraulicos, de la Universidad Nacional, with the support of COLCIENCIAS and the Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica-UPME. The results showed the average value of the net influence of humidity to the atmosphere of Colombia is of 5716 mm/year, with a great variability in both phases of the ENSO. The greater humidity advection towards Colombia occurs in the low levels of pressure (between 1000 and 850 hPa), and originating of all the directions, mainly of trade winds of the east and trade winds of the west. Also one was that the greater humidity transport towards Colombia occurs in trimesters DJF and MAM, with average values 505,1 and 606,6 mm/year, respectively. It was observed that the hypothesis that in the long term, the net atmospheric flux, is equal to the net terrestrial run-off, reasonably is adapted for

  19. Deep ocean communities impacted by changing climate over 24 y in the abyssal northeast Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kenneth L; Ruhl, Henry A; Kahru, Mati; Huffard, Christine L; Sherman, Alana D

    2013-12-03

    The deep ocean, covering a vast expanse of the globe, relies almost exclusively on a food supply originating from primary production in surface waters. With well-documented warming of oceanic surface waters and conflicting reports of increasing and decreasing primary production trends, questions persist about how such changes impact deep ocean communities. A 24-y time-series study of sinking particulate organic carbon (food) supply and its utilization by the benthic community was conducted in the abyssal northeast Pacific (~4,000-m depth). Here we show that previous findings of food deficits are now punctuated by large episodic surpluses of particulate organic carbon reaching the sea floor, which meet utilization. Changing surface ocean conditions are translated to the deep ocean, where decadal peaks in supply, remineralization, and sequestration of organic carbon have broad implications for global carbon budget projections.

  20. Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Graae, Bente; Aarrestad, Per

    2013-01-01

    -change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community...... data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We...... temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0...

  1. Community based adaptation options for climate change impacts on water resources: The case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Hammouri Nezar; Al-Qinna Mohammad; Salahat Mohammad; Adamowski Jan; Prasher Shiv O.

    2015-01-01

    A strategic vision to ensure an adequate, safe and secure drinking water supply presents a challenge, particularly for such a small country as Jordan, faced with a critical supply-demand imbalance and a high risk of water quality deterioration. In order to provide sustainable and equitable long-term water management plans for the future, current and future demands, along with available adaptation options should be assessed through community engagement. An analysis of available water resources...

  2. Impact of climate variability on ichthyoplankton communities: An example of a small temperate estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primo, Ana Lígia; Azeiteiro, Ulisses Miranda; Marques, Sónia Cotrim; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo

    2011-03-01

    Recent variations in the precipitation regime across southern Europe have led to changes in river fluxes and salinity gradients affecting biological communities in most rivers and estuaries. A sampling programme was developed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, from January 2003 to December 2008 at five distinct sampling stations to evaluate spatial, seasonal and inter-annual distributions of fish larvae. Gobiidae was the most abundant family representing 80% of total catch and Pomatoschistus spp. was the most important taxon. The fish larval community presented a clear seasonality with higher abundances and diversities during spring and summer seasons. Multivariate analysis reinforced differences among seasons but not between years or sampling stations. The taxa Atherina presbyter, Solea solea, Syngnathus abaster, Crystallogobius linearis and Platichthys flesus were more abundant during spring/summer period while Ammodytes tobianus, Callionymus sp., Echiichthys vipera and Liza ramada were more abundant in autumn/winter. Temperature, chlorophyll a and river flow were the main variation drivers observed although extreme drought events (year 2005) seemed not to affect ichthyoplankton community structure. Main changes were related to a spatial displacement of salinity gradient along the estuarine system which produced changes in marine species distribution.

  3. Composition and structure of the larval fish community related to environmental parameters in a tropical estuary impacted by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloterdijk, Hans; Brehmer, Patrice; Sadio, Oumar; Müller, Hanno; Döring, Julian; Ekau, Werner

    2017-10-01

    Mangrove ecosystems have long been considered essential habitats and are commonly viewed and referred to as "nursery areas". They are highly sensitive to climate change, and environmental transformations in these ecosystems are expected. The Sine Saloum estuary is a case of a system affected by global climate change where reduced precipitation and temperature increase have resulted in an inversion of the salinity gradient. Within the estuary, the composition and structure of the larval fish community related to environmental parameters were investigated using neuston and ring trawl nets. Larval fishes were sampled at 16 stations distributed along a salinity and distance-to-the-sea gradient during four field campaigns (November 2013, February, June, and August 2014) covering an annual cycle. This is the first study documenting the spatial and temporal assemblages of fish larvae in an inverse estuary. The total of 41 taxa representing 24 families and 34 genus identified in this study was lower than that of other tropical estuaries. Clupeidae spp. was the dominant taxon, accounting for 28.9% of the total number of fish larvae caught, followed by Gerreidae spp. (21.1%), Hyporamphus picarti (18.8%), Diplodus bellottii (8.9%), Hypleurochilus langi (4.8%), Mugilidae spp. (4.4%), and Gobiidae sp.1 (3.5%). A total of 20 taxa were recorded within the upper estuary region, whereas 29 and 37 taxa were observed in the middle and lower reaches, respectively. While larval fish were captured at all sites and during all seasons, abundances and richness decreased with increasing salinity. Larval fish assemblages also showed a clear vertical structure corresponding to three distinct water strata. Salinity, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen were the variables that best explained the spatial and temporal differences in larval fish assemblages. It is difficult to forecast the future situation for this system but so far, compared to other mangrove estuarine systems, we have

  4. Microbial ecology in a future climate: effects of temperature and moisture on microbial communities of two boreal fens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltoniemi, Krista; Laiho, Raija; Juottonen, Heli; Kiikkilä, Oili; Mäkiranta, Päivi; Minkkinen, Kari; Pennanen, Taina; Penttilä, Timo; Sarjala, Tytti; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Tuomivirta, Tero; Fritze, Hannu

    2015-07-01

    Impacts of warming with open-top chambers on microbial communities in wet conditions and in conditions resulting from moderate water-level drawdown (WLD) were studied across 0-50 cm depth in northern and southern boreal sedge fens. Warming alone decreased microbial biomass especially in the northern fen. Impact of warming on microbial PLFA and fungal ITS composition was more obvious in the northern fen and linked to moisture regime and sample depth. Fungal-specific PLFA increased in the surface peat in the drier regime and decreased in layers below 10 cm in the wet regime after warming. OTUs representing Tomentella and Lactarius were observed in drier regime and Mortierella in wet regime after warming in the northern fen. The ectomycorrhizal fungi responded only to WLD. Interestingly, warming together with WLD decreased archaeal 16S rRNA copy numbers in general, and fungal ITS copy numbers in the northern fen. Expectedly, many results indicated that microbial response on warming may be linked to the moisture regime. Results indicated that microbial community in the northern fen representing Arctic soils would be more sensitive to environmental changes. The response to future climate change clearly may vary even within a habitat type, exemplified here by boreal sedge fen. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Adler

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence.We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions.We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

  6. ECOLES: a Citizen Observers network engaging communities to map climate change at the local level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thejll, Peter; Walker, Nicholas; Sandholt, Inge; Brown, Ian; Solberg, Rune; Suwala, Jason; Kelly, Richard; Tangen, Helge; Berglund, Robin; Dean, Andy; Engset, Rune; Siewertsen, Bjarne

    2016-04-01

    Engaging people in environmental studies is an important way to bring across awareness of expected future climate changes, and also a way to measure environmental change in ways that are better or complementary to remote sensing methods. With a hands-on approach, people are more likely to embrace the idea that climate change is occurring, and with modern technologies it is possible to collect quite stunning amounts of relevant data. We suggest several national activities tailored to conditions in each of the participating countries and also to existing national CO-projects. The project focuses on gathering data on biological changes, on weather, and on snow-pack information in Nordic countries as well as Greenland and Canada. Data will be gathered with existing equipment (mobile phones and internet-connected weather stations) and the project provides the means for collation of data into a database for dissemination and quality control. Numerical data collected by small non-professional weather stations or mobile phones with sensors are not directly useful quantitatively for e.g. numerical weather prediction without validation of data quality, but with validation there is a huge untapped potential due to the number of observers. Students are a central part of the project, which also seeks to engage people out and about in nature, and people with their own weather stations or other environmental data-collection activities, as well as passive data collection from mobile phone data sensors in people's bags and pockets. Appropriate software, educational and training materials will be designed with end-users in mind; school-age materials will be produced in the appropriate languages (e.g. Kalaallisut for COs of school age in Greenland).

  7. COR1 Engineering Test Unit Measurements at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility, October-November 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, William

    2002-01-01

    The Engineering Test Unit (ETU) of COR1 was made in two configurations. The first configuration, ETU-1, was for vibration testing, while the second, ETU-2, was for optical testing. This is a report on the optical testing performed on ETU-2 at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility during the months of October and November, 2002. This was the same facility used to test the two previous breadboard models. In both configurations, the first two tube sections were complete, with all optical elements aligned. The vibration model ETU-1 had the remaining tube sections attached, with mass models for the remaining optics, for the various mechanisms, and for the focal plane assembly. It was then converted into the optical model ETU-2 by removing tube sections 3 to 5, and mounting the remaining optics on commercial mounts. (The bandpass filter was also installed into tube 2, which had been replaced in ETU-1 by a mass model, so that pre- and post-vibration optical measurements could be made.) Doublet 2 was installed in a Newport LP-2 carrier, and aligned to the other optics in the first two tube sections. The LP-2 adjustment screws were then uralened so that the alignment could be maintained during shipping. Because neither the flight polarizer nor Hollow Core Motor were available, they were simulated by a commercial polarizer and rotational mount, both from Oriel corporation. The Oriel rotational stage was not designed for vacuum use, but it was determined after consultation with the company, and lab testing, that the stage could be used in the moderate vacuum conditions at the NCAR/HAO facility. The shutter and focal plane assembly were simulated with the same camera used for the previous two breadboard tests. The focal plane mask was simulated with a plane of BK7 glass with a mask glued on, using the same procedure as for the Lyot spot on Doublet 1, and mounted in an adjustable LP-2 carrier. Two masks were made, one made to the precise specifications of the optical design, the

  8. Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    stability Science & Innovation Collaboration Careers Community Environment Science & Innovation Recruitment Events Community Commitment Giving Campaigns, Drives Economic Development Employee Funded neighbor pledge: contribute to quality of life in Northern New Mexico through economic development

  9. Community based adaptation options for climate change impacts on water resources: The case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammouri Nezar

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A strategic vision to ensure an adequate, safe and secure drinking water supply presents a challenge, particularly for such a small country as Jordan, faced with a critical supply-demand imbalance and a high risk of water quality deterioration. In order to provide sustainable and equitable long-term water management plans for the future, current and future demands, along with available adaptation options should be assessed through community engagement. An analysis of available water resources, existing demands and use per sector served to assess the nation’s historic water status. Taking into account the effect of both population growth and rainfall reduction, future per sector demands were predicted by linear temporal trend analysis. Water sector vulnerability and adaptation options were assessed by engaging thirty five stakeholders. A set of weighed-criterions were selected, adopted, modified, and then framed into comprehensive guidelines. A quantitative ratio-level approach was used to quantify the magnitude and likelihood of risks and opportunities associated with each proposed adaptation measure using the level of effectiveness and severity status. Prioritization indicated that public awareness and training programs were the most feasible and effective adaptation measures, while building new infrastructure was of low priority. Associated barriers were related to a lack of financial resources, institutional arrangements, and data collection, sharing, availability, consistency and transparency, as well as willingness to adapt. Independent community-based watershed-vulnerability analyses to address water integrity at watershed scale are recommended.

  10. Sensitivity test of parameterizations of subgrid-scale orographic form drag in the NCAR CESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yishuang; Wang, Lanning; Zhang, Guang Jun; Wu, Qizhong

    2017-05-01

    Turbulent drag caused by subgrid orographic form drag has significant effects on the atmosphere. It is represented through parameterization in large-scale numerical prediction models. An indirect parameterization scheme, the Turbulent Mountain Stress scheme (TMS), is currently used in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model v1.0.4. In this study we test a direct scheme referred to as BBW04 (Beljaars et al. in Q J R Meteorol Soc 130:1327-1347, 10.1256/qj.03.73), which has been used in several short-term weather forecast models and earth system models. Results indicate that both the indirect and direct schemes increase surface wind stress and improve the model's performance in simulating low-level wind speed over complex orography compared to the simulation without subgrid orographic effect. It is shown that the TMS scheme produces a more intense wind speed adjustment, leading to lower wind speed near the surface. The low-level wind speed by the BBW04 scheme agrees better with the ERA-Interim reanalysis and is more sensitive to complex orography as a direct method. Further, the TMS scheme increases the 2-m temperature and planetary boundary layer height over large areas of tropical and subtropical Northern Hemisphere land.

  11. Ocean acidification and desalination: climate-driven change in a Baltic Sea summer microplanktonic community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulff, Angela; Karlberg, Maria; Olofsson, Malin; Torstensson, Anders; Riemann, Lasse; Steinhoff, Franciska S; Mohlin, Malin; Ekstrand, Nina; Chierici, Melissa

    2018-01-01

    Helcom scenario modelling suggests that the Baltic Sea, one of the largest brackish-water bodies in the world, could expect increased precipitation (decreased salinity) and increased concentration of atmospheric CO 2 over the next 100 years. These changes are expected to affect the microplanktonic food web, and thereby nutrient and carbon cycling, in a complex and possibly synergistic manner. In the Baltic Proper, the extensive summer blooms dominated by the filamentous cyanobacteria Aphanizomenon sp., Dolichospermum spp. and the toxic Nodularia spumigena contribute up to 30% of the yearly new nitrogen and carbon exported to the sediment. In a 12 days outdoor microcosm experiment, we tested the combined effects of decreased salinity (from 6 to 3) and elevated CO 2 concentrations (380 and 960 µatm) on a natural summer microplanktonic community, focusing on diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria. Elevated p CO 2 had no significant effects on the natural microplanktonic community except for higher biovolume of Dolichospermum spp. and lower biomass of heterotrophic bacteria. At the end of the experimental period, heterotrophic bacterial abundance was correlated to the biovolume of N. spumigena. Lower salinity significantly affected cyanobacteria together with biovolumes of dinoflagellates, diatoms, ciliates and heterotrophic bacteria, with higher biovolume of Dolichospermum spp. and lower biovolume of N. spumigena , dinoflagellates, diatoms, ciliates and heterotrophic bacteria in reduced salinity. Although the salinity effects on diatoms were apparent, they could not clearly be separated from the influence of inorganic nutrients. We found a clear diurnal cycle in photosynthetic activity and pH, but without significant treatment effects. The same diurnal pattern was also observed in situ ( p CO 2 , pH). Thus, considering the Baltic Proper, we do not expect any dramatic effects of increased p CO 2 in combination with decreased salinity on the microplanktonic food web

  12. Ectomycorrhizal Communities on the Roots of Two Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Populations from Contrasting Climates Differ in Nitrogen Acquisition in a Common Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leberecht, Martin; Dannenmann, Michael; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Bilela, Silvija; Meier, Rudolf; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz; Schloter, Michael; Polle, Andrea

    2015-09-01

    Beech (Fagus sylvatica), a dominant forest species in Central Europe, competes for nitrogen with soil microbes and suffers from N limitation under dry conditions. We hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal communities and the free-living rhizosphere microbes from beech trees from sites with two contrasting climatic conditions exhibit differences in N acquisition that contribute to differences in host N uptake and are related to differences in host belowground carbon allocation. To test these hypotheses, young trees from the natural regeneration of two genetically similar populations, one from dryer conditions (located in an area with a southwest exposure [SW trees]) and the other from a cooler, moist climate (located in an area with a northeast exposure [NE trees]), were transplanted into a homogeneous substrate in the same environment and labeled with (13)CO2 and (15)NH4 (+). Free-living rhizosphere microbes were characterized by marker genes for the N cycle, but no differences between the rhizospheres of SW or NE trees were found. Lower (15)N enrichment was found in the ectomycorrhizal communities of the NE tree communities than the SW tree communities, whereas no significant differences in (15)N enrichment were observed for nonmycorrhizal root tips of SW and NE trees. Neither the ectomycorrhizal communities nor the nonmycorrhizal root tips originating from NE and SW trees showed differences in (13)C signatures. Because the level of (15)N accumulation in fine roots and the amount transferred to leaves were lower in NE trees than SW trees, our data support the suggestion that the ectomycorrhizal community influences N transfer to its host and demonstrate that the fungal community from the dry condition was more efficient in N acquisition when environmental constraints were relieved. These findings highlight the importance of adapted ectomycorrhizal communities for forest nutrition in a changing climate. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights

  13. The Roles of Convection Parameterization in the Formation of Double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Guang J.

    2018-03-01

    Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long-standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

  14. Mitigating Climate Change at the Carbon Water Nexus: A Call to Action for the Environmental Engineering Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarens, Andres F; Peters, Catherine A

    2016-10-01

    Environmental engineers have played a critical role in improving human and ecosystem health over the past several decades. These contributions have focused on providing clean water and air as well as managing waste streams and remediating polluted sites. As environmental problems have become more global in scale and more deeply entrenched in sociotechnical systems, the discipline of environmental engineering must grow to be ready to respond to the challenges of the coming decades. Here we make the case that environmental engineers should play a leadership role in the development of climate change mitigation technologies at the carbon-water nexus (CWN). Climate change, driven largely by unfettered emissions of fossil carbon into the atmosphere, is a far-reaching and enormously complex environmental risk with the potential to negatively affect food security, human health, infrastructure, and other systems. Solving this problem will require a massive mobilization of existing and innovative new technology. The environmental engineering community is uniquely positioned to do pioneering work at the CWN using a skillset that has been honed, solving related problems. The focus of this special issue, on "The science and innovation of emerging subsurface energy technologies," provides one example domain within which environmental engineers and related disciplines are beginning to make important contributions at the CWN. In this article, we define the CWN and describe how environmental engineers can bring their considerable expertise to bear in this area. Then we review some of the topics that appear in this special issue, for example, mitigating the impacts of hydraulic fracturing and geologic carbon storage, and we provide perspective on emergent research directions, for example, enhanced geothermal energy, energy storage in sedimentary formations, and others.

  15. Integrated and Optimized Energy-Efficient Construction Package for a Community of Production Homes in the Mixed-Humid Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.; Del Bianco, M.

    2014-10-01

    Selection and integration of high performance home features are two sides of the same coin in energy efficient sustainable construction. Many advanced technologies are available for selection, but it is in the integration of these technologies into an affordable set of features that can be used on a production basis by builders, that ensures whole-house performance meets expectations. This research high performance home analyzes how a set of advanced technologies can be integrated into a durable and energy efficient house in the mixed-humid climate while remaining affordable to homeowners. The technical solutions documented in this report are the cornerstone of the builder's entire business model based on delivering high-performance homes on a production basis as a standard product offering to all price segments of the residential market. Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with production builder Nexus EnergyHomes (CZ 4). The builder plans to adopt the successful components of the energy solution package for all 55 homes in the community. The research objective was to optimize the builder's energy solution package based on energy performance and construction costs. All of the major construction features, including envelope upgrades, space conditioning system, hot water system, and solar electric system were analyzed. The information in this report can be used by builders and designers to evaluate options, and the integration of options, for increasing the efficiency of home designs in climate zone 4. The data also provide a point of reference for evaluating estimates of energy savings and costs for specific features.

  16. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  17. Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory

  18. So Close Yet So Far Apart: Contrasting Climate Change Perceptions in Two “Neighboring” Coastal Communities on Aotearoa New Zealand’s Coromandel Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Schneider

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Coastal hazard risk, compounded by climate change, is escalating. Efforts to address this challenge are fraught and ‘success’ is elusive. We focus on this impasse and recommend ways to improve understanding, reduce risk and enable adaptation. Two Aotearoa New Zealand coastal communities, Mercury Bay and Kennedy Bay, on the Coromandel Peninsula, serve as case studies. Ethnographic fieldwork underpins this analysis. Despite close proximity, local perceptions are ‘worlds apart’. Poor understanding of climate change, and preoccupation with everyday issues, is commonplace. Moreover, there are countervailing community narratives. In Kennedy Bay, which is undeveloped and Māori, climate change is not a manifest concern. Local narratives are rooted in Māori culture and under the shadow of colonization, which shapes contemporary perceptions, practices and prospects. In Mercury Bay, a rapidly developing resort town, seashore property owners demand protection works—ignoring sea-level rise and privileging short-term private interests. Despite laudable regulatory provisions, static responses to dynamic risks prevail and proactive adaptation is absent. Recommendations are made to improve understanding about local cultural-social-ecological characteristics, climate change and adaption. Enabling leadership and capability-building are needed to institutionalize proactive adaptation. Strengthening Māori self-determination (rangatiratanga and guardianship (kaitiakitanga, and local democracy, are key to mobilizing and sustaining community-based adaptation governance.

  19. The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

  20. Ichthyoplankton Time Series: A Potential Ocean Observing Network to Provide Indicators of Climate Impacts on Fish Communities along the West Coast of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koslow, J. A.; Brodeur, R.; Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Perry, I.; jimenez Rosenberg, S.; Aceves, G.

    2016-02-01

    Ichthyoplankton time series available from the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and California Current (Oregon to Baja California) provide a potential ocean observing network to assess climate impacts on fish communities along the west coast of North America. Larval fish abundance reflects spawning stock biomass, so these data sets provide indicators of the status of a broad range of exploited and unexploited fish populations. Analyses to date have focused on individual time series, which generally exhibit significant change in relation to climate. Off California, a suite of 24 midwater fish taxa have declined > 60%, correlated with declining midwater oxygen concentrations, and overall larval fish abundance has declined 72% since 1969, a trend based on the decline of predominantly cool-water affinity taxa in response to warming ocean temperatures. Off Oregon, there were dramatic differences in community structure and abundance of larval fishes between warm and cool ocean conditions. Midwater deoxygenation and warming sea surface temperature trends are predicted to continue as a result of global climate change. US, Canadian, and Mexican fishery scientists are now collaborating in a virtual ocean observing network to synthesize available ichthyoplankton time series and compare patterns of change in relation to climate. This will provide regional indicators of populations and groups of taxa sensitive to warming, deoxygenation and potentially other stressors, establish the relevant scales of coherence among sub-regions and across Large Marine Ecosystems, and provide the basis for predicting future climate change impacts on these ecosystems.

  1. Climatic and ecological drivers of euphausiid community structure vary spatially in the Barents Sea: relationships from a long time series (1952-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Lvovna Orlova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Euphausiids play an important role in transferring energy from ephemeral primary producers to fish, seabirds, and marine mammals in the Barents Sea ecosystem. Climatic impacts have been suggested to occur at all levels of the Barents Sea food-web, but adequate exploration of these phenomena on ecologically relevant spatial scales has not been integrated sufficiently. We used a time-series of euphausiid abundance data spanning 58 years, one of the longest biological time-series in the Arctic, to explore qualitative and quantitative relationships among climate, euphausiids, and their predators, and how these parameters vary spatially in the Barents Sea. We detected four main hydrographic regions, each with distinct patterns of interannual variability in euphausiid abundance and community structure. Assemblages varied primarily in the relative abundance of Thysanoessa inermis versus T. raschii, or T. inermis versus T. longicaudata and Meganyctiphanes norvegica. Climate proxies and the abundance of capelin or cod explained 30-60% of the variability in euphausiid abundance in each region. Climate also influenced patterns of variability in euphausiid community structure, but correlations were generally weaker. Advection of boreal euphausiid taxa from the Norwegian Sea is clearly more prominent in warmer years than in colder years, and interacts with seasonal fish migrations to help explain spatial differences in primary drivers of euphausiid community structure. Non-linear effects of predators were common, and must be considered more carefully if a mechanistic understanding of the ecosystem is to be achieved. Quantitative relationships among euphausiid abundance, climate proxies, and predator stock-sizes derived from these time series are valuable for ecological models being used to predict impacts of climate change on the Barents Sea ecosystem, and how the system should be managed.

  2. Changes of climate regimes during the last millennium and the twenty-first century simulated by the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Feng, Song; Liu, Chang; Chen, Jie; Chen, Jianhui; Chen, Fahu

    2018-01-01

    This study examines the shifts in terrestrial climate regimes using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) simulations for the period 850-2005 and CESM Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and CESM with fixed aerosols Medium Ensemble (CESM-LE_FixA) simulations for the period 1920-2080. We compare K-T climate types from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (950-1250) with the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550-1850), from present day (PD) (1971-2000) with the last millennium (LM) (850-1850), and from the future (2050-2080) with the LM in order to place anthropogenic changes in the context of changes due to natural forcings occurring during the last millennium. For CESM-LME, we focused on the simulations with all forcings, though the impacts of individual forcings (e.g., solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, aerosols and land use changes) were also analyzed. We found that the climate types changed slightly between the MCA and the LIA due to weak changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate type changes in PD relative to the last millennium have been largely driven by greenhouse gas-induced warming, but anthropogenic aerosols have also played an important role on regional scales. At the end of the twenty-first century, the anthropogenic forcing has a much greater effect on climate types than the PD. Following the reduction of aerosol emissions, the impact of greenhouse gases will further promote global warming in the future. Compared to precipitation, changes in climate types are dominated by greenhouse gas-induced warming. The large shift in climate types by the end of this century suggests possible wide-spread redistribution of surface vegetation and a significant change in species distributions.

  3. Monsoon and cyclone induced wave climate over the near shore waters off Puduchery, south western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Glejin, J.; SanilKumar, V.; Nair, T.M.B.

    . Reanalysis data, NCEP / NCAR (Kalnay et al. 1996), provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ at 10 m height with a temporal resolution of 6 hour intervals is used to analyze the wind pattern...

  4. Challenges in the Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, J.; Daniels, M. D.

    2015-12-01

    The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies (referred to as Principal Investigator, or PI, instruments). At the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, a poster (IN13B-3639) was presented outlining the components of Airborne Data Management included field phase data collection, formats, data archival and documentation, version control, storage practices, stewardship and obsolete data formats, and public data access. This talk will cover lessons learned, challenges associated with the above components, and current developments to address these challenges, including: tracking data workflows for aircraft instrumentation to facilitate identification, and correction, of gaps in these workflows; implementation of dataset versioning guidelines; and assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) to data and instrumentation to facilitate tracking data and facility use in publications.

  5. [Description of the organizational climate in primary care teams in an autonomous community].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menárguez Puche, J F; Saturno Hernández, P J

    1999-03-31

    To describe the organisational atmosphere (OA) in primary care teams (PCTs) in an autonomous community. Crossover and observational. PCTs. A questionnaire on OA was administered after prior validation to all the doctors, nurses and social workers at 29 PCTs. The OA in the different teams was described, comprehensively and by dimensions: team-work, cohesion and commitment. Multiple regression was used to find the relationship between OA (dependent variable) and the independent variables: age of the professionals, years of functioning of the PCT, teaching status, type, location (rural or urban) and profession (coordinators, doctors, nurses, clerical staff). Overall reply rate was 77.5% (402 professionals): it was higher for coordinators. Average score on the questionnaire was 3.53 (SD = 0.56): it was higher for nurses. Results by dimensions were: team-work 3.67 (SD = 0.59), cohesion 3.54 (SD = 0.71) and commitment 3.37 (SD = 0.72). OA was seen as better by teaching teams (p dimensions. Coordinators had better self-perception of the OA, both overall and by dimensions (p < 0.01). Teams who had worked together for a long time thought the atmosphere was worse. The type of job and the number of years doing it did not affect the perception of OA. 1. The evaluation of OA is generally positive, though it can certainly be improved. 2. Perception is not uniform, as coordinators and teaching teams see the OA as better. 3. Teams working together for many years see the OA as worse.

  6. Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Kit, Ed.

    1995-01-01

    Art in context of community is the theme of this newsletter. The theme is introduced in an editorial "Community-Enlarging the Definition" (Kit Grauer). Related articles include: (1) "The Children's Bridge is not Destroyed: Heart in the Middle of the World" (Emil Robert Tanay); (2) "Making Bridges: The Sock Doll…

  7. Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Feng; Keim, Elaine; Hearty, Thomas J.; Wei, Jennifer; Savtchenko, Andrey; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

  8. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  9. Access to energy sources in the face of climate change: Challenges faced by women in rural communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mphemelang J. Ketlhoilwe

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Access to energy is a challenge to rural communities, especially among women who are the prime household energy users. This article is based on research carried out in the Tswapong villages in Botswana where energy sources particularly wood, are slowly getting depleted while electricity connection costs remain unaffordable for the poor. The article provides constructivist analysis of experiences in real-life situations among women. Data were generated through observations, documents analysis, interviews and focus group discussions. It has emerged from the research that majority of the respondents use firewood as energy source. Firewood and gas are mainly used for cooking while electricity is mainly used for lighting. The demand for firewood has led to firewood commercialisation, the depletion of preferred firewood tree species and increase in the impact of climate change. The article recommends economic diversification and subsidies to empower the majority of the rural poor to connect to the national electric grid and reduce on firewood dependence. These could be complemented by harnessing of solar energy and low-cost, energy-saving technologies. Subsidies to enable women access to energy services would contribute immensely to the decade of Sustainable Energy for All and to the attainment of the post 2015 sustainable development goal on energy.

  10. Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

  11. The Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN: a high resolution global model to estimate the emissions from open burning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Wiedinmyer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1 provides daily, 1 km resolution, global estimates of the trace gas and particle emissions from open burning of biomass, which includes wildfire, agricultural fires, and prescribed burning and does not include biofuel use and trash burning. Emission factors used in the calculations have been updated with recent data, particularly for the non-methane organic compounds (NMOC. The resulting global annual NMOC emission estimates are as much as a factor of 5 greater than some prior estimates. Chemical speciation profiles, necessary to allocate the total NMOC emission estimates to lumped species for use by chemical transport models, are provided for three widely used chemical mechanisms: SAPRC99, GEOS-CHEM, and MOZART-4. Using these profiles, FINNv1 also provides global estimates of key organic compounds, including formaldehyde and methanol. Uncertainties in the emissions estimates arise from several of the method steps. The use of fire hot spots, assumed area burned, land cover maps, biomass consumption estimates, and emission factors all introduce error into the model estimates. The uncertainty in the FINNv1 emission estimates are about a factor of two; but, the global estimates agree reasonably well with other global inventories of biomass burning emissions for CO, CO2, and other species with less variable emission factors. FINNv1 emission estimates have been developed specifically for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality in a consistent framework at scales from local to global. The product is unique because of the high temporal and spatial resolution, global coverage, and the number of species estimated. FINNv1 can be used for both hindcast and forecast or near-real time model applications and the results are being critically evaluated with models and observations whenever possible.

  12. Exploring recent and projected climate change in a steep monsoonal catchment in the middle Himalaya through innovative synthesis of local observations, gridded datasets and community engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Pritchard, Davis; Tiwari, Prakash; Fowler, Hayley; Kumaun, Bhagwati

    2016-04-01

    Under the auspices of an "Innovation Partnerships" programme research exchange grant jointly funded by the India Department of Science and Technology and the British Council, Kumaun University and Newcastle University have been collaboratively exploring the recorded historical and projected future climate change implications for a case study catchment, the Ramgad river, in the Kumaon Lesser Himalaya (Uttarakhand state, India). This work weaves together diverse research strands with the aim of producing a coherent thorough characterisation of the impacts of recent/on-going and likely climate evolution on local communities. Participatory research activities in multiple villages in the case study catchment have yielded a consistent narrative of changes posed by the increasingly erratic monsoonal rainfall as well as upward displacement and replacement crops in their historical elevation ranges due to temperature change. Multi-decadal climate records from both local observations and global meteorological records reveal a more complex picture with strong seasonal asymmetry of changes in both temperature and precipitation: a) trend analysis shows mild weakening of the early phase (May, July) but strengthen in the later stages (August, September); b) temperature trends show much stronger warming in late winter and early spring (February to April) than the rest of the year with additional asymmetry in both sign and magnitude of change between individual components (Tmax, Tmin) of the diurnal temperature cycle. On-going research seeks to associate this asymmetry with causal mechanisms (cloud radiative effect, atmospheric circulation). Analysis of historical records will provide the basis for validation and assessment of individual regional climate model projections from the CORDEX South Asia domain ensemble. For the terraced agricultural communities of the Kumaon Himalaya, the most directly consequential effects of climate variability and change are impacts on crop yields

  13. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  14. Rainwater Harvesting-based Safe Water Access in Diarrhea-endemic Coastal Communities of Bangladesh under Threats of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Redwan, A. M.; Ali, M. A.; Alam, M.; Jutla, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    The highly populated coastal floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of water-related natural calamities such as droughts, floods, and cyclones. Population centers along the floodplain corridors of the GBM (Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna) river system remain vulnerable to such natural hazards and waterborne epidemic outbreaks due to increasing intensity and changing frequency of extreme events over many areas in the delta region. Such changes in hydrologic extremes and resulting environmental conditions would likely lengthen the transmission seasons of prevalent waterborne diseases and alter their geographic range as well as seasonality. In addition, the combination of changing upstream precipitation and temperature, and coastal sea-level rise are exposing a vast area in Southwestern Bangladesh to increased diarrheal disease outbreaks due to higher salinity and water scarcity in the dry season as well as coastal flooding and water resources contamination in the wet season. It is thus essential to establish sustainable safe water access practices in these regions for the rural communities of low-income people. The impact of climate change in the recent past on the people of coastal rural areas of Bangladesh has been severe, and the water sector is one of its biggest victims. Previously, pond and groundwater sources were considered dependable, but salinity intrusion in both water resources have left the vulnerable people with only a few scarce ponds and forced them to depend more on rainwater than before. The poorest group is suffering the most for this crisis even though paying more of the percentage of their income especially in the dry season (December-March). As rainwater is their most preferred and dependable option during this part of the year, outbreaks of waterborne diseases can be minimized by installing rainwater harvesting systems with effective disinfection system at both household and community levels. In this study, we explore the technical

  15. Analysis of barriers and levers to the implementation of strategies of adaptation to climate changes - 2014-2015. The case of urban communities. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonet, Guillaume; Leseur, Alexia

    2015-12-01

    This is the final report of a research project (ABSTRACT-colurba) which aimed at exploring decision mechanisms and organisational dynamics underlying the elaboration of strategies of adaptation to climate changes by using results of a field study among ten previously selected French local communities. The objectives were to determine priority local social and economic challenges associated with expected impacts of climate changes, to identify economic, organisational and cognitive barriers and levers (at the State, representative or collectivity level) to an optimal implementation of measures of reduction of local vulnerabilities to climate changes, to identify possible or already used diagnosis tools for the assessment of costs and of priority investments, and to make comparisons with other referenced cases and to assess possibilities to bypass barriers thanks to a dialogue with stakeholders. After a presentation of the project (objectives, institutional context, guides and methodologies, scientific approach for data acquisition and analysis), the report presents and discusses the obtained results regarding the place given to adaptation in local policies (PCET, the French local climate-energy plans), representations of adaptation, the inclusion of adaptation in the agenda of public climatic action, tools to make adaptation operational, barriers and levers to action implementation

  16. Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uejio, Christopher K.; Christenson, Megan; Moran, Colleen; Gorelick, Mark

    2017-06-01

    This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age first quantified the observed (1991-2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991-2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011-2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ˜1.5%, range: -3.6-4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ˜3.0%, range: 0.2-7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ˜82.0%, range: 82.0-83.0%).

  17. Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

    2011-01-10

    To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

  18. Climate science reconsidered

    OpenAIRE

    Rapley, C.; De Meyer, K.

    2014-01-01

    There is a gap between the current role of the climate science community and the needs of society. Closing this gap represents a necessary but insufficient step towards improved public discourse and more constructive policy formulation on climate change.

  19. Climate change influences on environment as a determinant of Indigenous health: Relationships to place, sea ice, and health in an Inuit community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkalec, Agata; Furgal, Chris; Skinner, Mark W; Sheldon, Tom

    2015-07-01

    This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment - sea ice - and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010-11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollisterd; Anna Maria Fosaa; William A. Gould; Luise Hermanutz; Annika Hofgaard; Ingibjorg I. Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Esther Levesque; Borgbor Magnusson; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Christian Rixen; Craig E. Tweedie; Marilyn Walkers

    2015-01-01

    Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along...

  1. How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

  2. Water in the Native World: Hydrological Impacts of Future Land Use and Climate Change in the Lumbee River Watershed and Implications for Ecosystems and Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Singh, N.; Painter, J.; Sikes, J. A.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Martin, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the coming decades, the southeastern US will likely experience substantial shifts in land use due to population growth, food and energy production, and other factors. In the same period, climate change is expected to alter ecohydrological processes in terrestrial landscapes while contributing to further land use change. Increasingly, these changes will challenge the ability of the region's freshwater resources to support natural ecosystems and human communities. The impacts of land use and climate change on water are of particular concern to rural indigenous communities of the southeastern US. For these communities, the cultural significance of land and water, together with historical legacies of discrimination, marginalization and other factors, combine to create unique vulnerabilities to environmental change. Assessments of land use and climate impacts on water resources of the southeastern US tend to focus on quantity and quality concerns of large cities or on waters of special economic concern (e.g. estuaries and coastal fisheries). The potential impacts of land use and climate change on American Indian communities are largely overlooked or unknown. With this in mind, we used a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT) to assess impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow regimes in the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River, North Carolina (USA). This coastal plain blackwater river is a significant natural and cultural resource for indigenous people of the Lumbee Tribe, and its watershed, containing extensive riparian wetlands and agriculture-dominated uplands, is home to more than 30,000 tribal citizens. We ran SWAT with statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs) for the mid-21st century (RCP8.5 scenario), together with a mid-century land use scenario from the US Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. We used these inputs to simulate daily streamflows on the Lumbee River for the 2040-2060 period with uncertainty

  3. The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield

  4. Exposing Underrepresented Groups to Climate Change and Atmospheric Science Through Service Learning and Community-Based Participatory Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, D.

    2016-12-01

    Tennessee State University (TSU) is among seven partner institutions in the NASA-funded project "Mission Earth: Fusing Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) with NASA Assets to Build Systemic Innovation in STEM Education." The primary objective at the TSU site is to expose high school students from racial and ethnic groups traditionally underrepresented in STEM to atmospheric science and physical systems associated with climate change. Currently, undergraduate students enrolled in TSU's urban and physical courses develop lessons for high school students focused upon the analysis of global warming phenomena and related extreme weather events. The GLOBE Atmosphere Protocols are emphasized in exercises focused upon the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon and air quality measurements. Pre-service teachers at TSU, and in-service teachers at four local high schools are being certified in the Atmosphere Protocols. Precipitation, ambient air temperature, surface temperature and other data are collected at the schools through a collaborative learning effort among the high school students, TSU undergraduates, and high school teachers. Data collected and recorded manually in the field are compared to each school's automated Weatherbug station measurements. Students and teachers engage in analysis of NASA imagery as part of the GLOBE Surface Temperature Protocol. At off-campus locations, US Clean Air Act (CAA) criteria air pollutant and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) air pollutant sampling is being conducted in community-based participatory research (CBPR) format. Students partner with non-profit environmental organizations. Data collected using low-cost air sampling devices is being compared with readings from government air monitors. The GLOBE Aerosols Protocol is used in comparative assessments with air sampling results. Project deliverables include four new GLOBE schools, the enrollment of which is nearly entirely comprised of students

  5. The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

    2013-12-01

    Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

  6. The Land Use and Cover Change in Miombo Woodlands under Community Based Forest Management and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation: A Case of Southern Highlands of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. J. Lupala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In Tanzania, miombo woodland is the most significant forest vegetation with both ecological and socioeconomic importance. The vegetation has been threatened from land use and cover change due to unsustainable utilization. Over the past two decades, community based forest management (CBFM has been practiced to address the problem. Given the current need to mitigate global climate change, little is known on the influence of CBFM to the land use and cover change in miombo woodlands and therefore compromising climate change mitigation strategies. This study explored the dynamic of land use and covers change and biomass due to CBFM and established the implication to climate change mitigation. The study revealed increasing miombo woodland cover density with decreasing unsustainable utilization. The observed improvement in cover density and biomass provides potential for climate change mitigation strategies. CBFM also developed solidarity, cohesion, and social control of miombo woodlands illegal extraction. This further enhances permanence, reduces leakage, and increases accountability requirement for carbon credits. Collectively with these promising results, good land use plan at village level and introduction of alternative income generating activities can be among the best options to further reduce land use change and biomass loss in miombo woodlands.

  7. Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

    2017-09-01

    Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Shifts in the microbial community structure explain the response of soil respiration to land-use change but not to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nazaries, Loïc; Tottey, William; Robinson, Lucinda

    2015-01-01

    Soil stores more carbon (C) than plants and atmosphere combined and it is vulnerable to increased microbial respiration under projected global changes including land-use change and future climate scenarios (mainly elevated temperature). Land-use change is known to have a direct impact on soil...... of this feedback response of Rs to global change. To identify the mechanisms of Rs response to land-use change and climate warming, we first investigated Rs from different land use types. Soil respiration was estimated seasonally from four different Scottish land uses: moorland, birch woodland, grassland and pine......, estimated by Multiplex Terminal-Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (MT-RFLP) and 454 pyrosequencing, was significantly different under each land use type. A strong correlation of Rs with soil properties (pH, inorganic N, C:N ratio and moisture) and with microbial community structure was identified...

  9. Tools and Techniques to Collaborate and Connect with At-Risk Climate Communities UsingSensors, Remote Sensing Data, and Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drapkin, J. K.; Ramamurthy, P.; Vant-Hull, B.; Yuen, K.; Glenn, A.; Jusino, C.; Corbin, C.; Schuerman, M.; Keefe, J.; Brooke, H.

    2016-12-01

    Those most at risk during heat waves and floods are often the socio-economically vulnerable. Yet very few studies exist of indoor temperatures during heat waves or of standing water events at the neighborhood level during extreme events. ISeeChange, a community weather and climate journal, is developing tools and testing techniques in a series of community pilots in Harlem and New Orleans to assess if a combination of citizen science, remote sensing, and journalism can bridge the gap. Our consortium of media (WNYC,Adapt NYC, ISeeChange), scientists (CUNY, CoCoRaHS, NASAJPL), and community partners (WE ACT for Environmental Justice, tenant, and neighborhood associations) are collaborating to engage with residents, report radio stories, as well as develop scientifically valuableinformation for decision-making. Community volunteers place temperature and humidity sensors inside residences (Harlem) or photograph standing water using specific methodologies (New Orleans). Sensordata, photographs, and text documenting the impacts of extreme weather on residents are posted on the ISeeChange platform via mobile app or community ambassadors and compared to other remote sensing data products (surface temperature, precipitation, subsidence) Preliminary results of the Harlem pilot show that indoor temperatures are far more stable than outdoor temperatures, so can be both cooler during the day but warmer at night; preliminary work on the New Orleans pilot is set to begin in fall 2016. A full analysis of the Harlem pilot will be presented along with preliminary results of the New Orleans pilot.

  10. Online Discovery and Mapping of Great Lakes Climate Change Education and Scientific Research Activities: Building an Online Collaborative Learning Community of Scientists and Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuddenham, P.; Bishop, K.; Walters, H.; Carley, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Great Lakes Climate Change Science and Education Systemic Network (GLCCSESN) project is an NSF-funded CCEP program awarded to Eastern Michigan University in 2010. The College of Exploration is one of the project partners and has conducted a series of online surveys, workshop and focus group to identify a wide range of organizations, individuals, resources and needs related to climate change education and research activities in and about the Great Lakes Region and to provide information about climate change science to the education community. One of the first steps taken to build this community was to build a web site that features a dynamic online map of individuals and organizations concerned about climate change as well as interested in resources and activities specific to the Great Lakes. Individuals and organizations have been, and are still, invited to put themselves on the map at http://greatlakesclimate.org This map of the Great Lakes region provides both a visual representation of activities and resources as well as a database of climate change activities. This map will grow over time as more people and organizations put themselves on the map. The use of online technologies has helped broaden the participation and representation in the GLCCSESN from all states/provinces in the Great Lakes region, encouraging diverse audiences and stakeholders, including scientists, educators, and journalists, etc.to engage with the project. In the fall of 2011 a combined online professional development workshop and focus group is planned. Educators and scientists working on climate change studies and issues related to the Great Lakes will be sharing their work and expertise in an online workshop and focus group. Following the professional development activity a focus group will be conducted online using a model developed as part of a NSF funded COSEE project. The focus group purpose is to review current educational resources and to identify gaps and needs for further

  11. Supporting local farming communities and crop production resilience to climate change through giant reed (Arundo donax L.) cultivation: An Italian case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfante, A; Impagliazzo, A; Fiorentino, N; Langella, G; Mori, M; Fagnano, M

    2017-12-01

    Bioenergy crops are well known for their ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the soil carbon stock. Although such crops are often held to be in competition with food crops and thus raise the question of current and future food security, at the same time mitigation measures are required to tackle climate change and sustain local farming communities and crop production. However, in some cases the actions envisaged for specific pedo-climatic conditions are not always economically sustainable by farmers. In this frame, energy crops with high environmental adaptability and yields, such as giant reed (Arundo donax L.), may represent an opportunity to improve farm incomes, making marginal areas not suitable for food production once again productive. In so doing, three of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations would be met, namely SDG 2 on food security and sustainable agriculture, SDG 7 on reliable, sustainable and modern energy, and SDG 13 on action to combat climate change and its impacts. In this work, the response of giant reed in the marginal areas of an agricultural district of southern Italy (Destra Sele) and expected farm incomes under climate change (2021-2050) are evaluated. The normalized water productivity index of giant reed was determined (WP; 30.1gm -2 ) by means of a SWAP agro-hydrological model, calibrated and validated on two years of a long-term field experiment. The model was used to estimate giant reed response (biomass yield) in marginal areas under climate change, and economic evaluation was performed to determine expected farm incomes (woodchips and chopped forage). The results show that woodchip production represents the most profitable option for farmers, yielding a gross margin 50% lower than ordinary high-input maize cultivation across the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate Literacy Through Learning-by-Doing: Engaging Communities in the Production of Accessible Research-Based Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourqui, M.; Charriere, M. K. M.; Bolduc, C.

    2016-12-01

    This talk presents a case of a learning-by-doing approach used by the Climanosco organisation to produce research-based information written in a language accessible to a large public. In this model, engagement (the "doing") of members of the general public, alongside