A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

2014-12-01

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj Kanta; Salunke, Popat

2018-03-01

A new bias-corrected statistically downscaled product, namely, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), has recently been developed by NASA to help the scientific community in climate change impact studies at local to regional scale. In this work, the product is validated over India and its added value as compared to its CMIP5 counterpart for the NCAR CCSM4 model is analyzed, followed by climate change projections under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario using the two datasets for the variables daily maximum 2-m air temperature (Tmax), daily minimum 2-m air temperature (Tmin), and rainfall. It is found that, overall, the CCSM4-NEX-GDDP significantly reduces many of the biases in CCSM4-CMIP5 for the historical simulations; however, some biases such as the significant overestimation in the frequency of occurrence in the lower tail of the Tmax and Tmin still remain. In regard to rainfall, an important value addition in CCSM4-NEX-GDDP is the alleviation of the significant underestimation of rainfall extremes found in CCSM4-CMIP5. The projected Tmax from CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are in general higher than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5, suggesting that the risks of heat waves and very hot days could be higher than that projected by the latter. CCSM4-NEX-GDDP projects the frequency of occurrence of the upper extreme values of historical Tmax to increase by a factor of 100 towards the end of century (as opposed to a factor of 10 increase projected by CCSM4-CMIP5). In regard to rainfall, both CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP project an increase in annual rainfall over India under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario progressively from the near term through the far term. However, CCSM4-NEX-GDDP consistently projects a higher magnitude of increase and over a larger area as compared to that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5. Projected daily rainfall distributions from CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP suggest the occurrence of events that have no historical precedents

Responses of Mixed-Phase Cloud Condensates and Cloud Radiative Effects to Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations in NCAR CAM5 and DOE ACME Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Shi, Y.; Wu, M.; Zhang, K.

2017-12-01

Mixed-phase clouds frequently observed in the Arctic and mid-latitude storm tracks have the substantial impacts on the surface energy budget, precipitation and climate. In this study, we first implement the two empirical parameterizations (Niemand et al. 2012 and DeMott et al. 2015) of heterogeneous ice nucleation for mixed-phase clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy Version 1 (ACME1). Model simulated ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations based on Niemand et al. and DeMott et al. are compared with those from the default ice nucleation parameterization based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) in CAM5 and ACME, and with in situ observations. Significantly higher INP concentrations (by up to a factor of 5) are simulated from Niemand et al. than DeMott et al. and CNT especially over the dust source regions in both CAM5 and ACME. Interestingly the ACME model simulates higher INP concentrations than CAM5, especially in the Polar regions. This is also the case when we nudge the two models' winds and temperature towards the same reanalysis, indicating more efficient transport of aerosols (dust) to the Polar regions in ACME. Next, we examine the responses of model simulated cloud liquid water and ice water contents to different INP concentrations from three ice nucleation parameterizations (Niemand et al., DeMott et al., and CNT) in CAM5 and ACME. Changes in liquid water path (LWP) reach as much as 20% in the Arctic regions in ACME between the three parameterizations while the LWP changes are smaller and limited in the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes in CAM5. Finally, the impacts on cloud radiative forcing and dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds are quantified with the three ice nucleation parameterizations in CAM5 and ACME.

Facilitating NCAR Data Discovery by Connecting Related Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Rosati, A.

2012-12-01

Linking datasets, creators, and users by employing the proper standards helps to increase the impact of funded research. In order for users to find a dataset, it must first be named. Data citations play the important role of giving datasets a persistent presence by assigning a formal "name" and location. This project focuses on the next step of the "name-find-use" sequence: enhancing discoverability of NCAR data by connecting related resources on the web. By examining metadata schemas that document datasets, I examined how Semantic Web approaches can help to ensure the widest possible range of data users. The focus was to move from search engine optimization (SEO) to information connectivity. Two main markup types are very visible in the Semantic Web and applicable to scientific dataset discovery: The Open Archives Initiative-Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE - www.openarchives.org) and Microdata (HTML5 and www.schema.org). My project creates pilot aggregations of related resources using both markup types for three case studies: The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset and related publications, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PSDI) animation and image files from NCAR's Visualization Lab (VisLab), and the multidisciplinary data types and formats from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS). This project documents the differences between these markups and how each creates connectedness on the web. My recommendations point toward the most efficient and effective markup schema for aggregating resources within the three case studies based on the following assessment criteria: ease of use, current state of support and adoption of technology, integration with typical web tools, available vocabularies and geoinformatic standards, interoperability with current repositories and access portals (e.g. ESG, Java), and relation to data citation tools and methods.

The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH): Implementing Unified Data Discovery and Access

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, D.; Worley, S. J.; Hou, C. Y.; Nienhouse, E.

2017-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement an integrated single entry point for uniform digital asset discovery and access across the organization in order to improve the efficiency of access, reduce the costs, and establish the foundation for interoperability with other federated systems. This effort supports new policies included in federal funding mandates, NSF data management requirements, and journal citation recommendations. An inventory during the early planning stage identified diverse asset types across the organization that included publications, datasets, metadata, models, images, and software tools and code. The NCAR Digital Asset Services Hub (DASH) is being developed and phased in this year to improve the quality of users' experiences in finding and using these assets. DASH serves to provide engagement, training, search, and support through the following four nodes (see figure). DASH MetadataDASH provides resources for creating and cataloging metadata to the NCAR Dialect, a subset of ISO 19115. NMDEdit, an editor based on a European open source application, has been configured for manual entry of NCAR metadata. CKAN, an open source data portal platform, harvests these XML records (along with records output directly from databases) from a Web Accessible Folder (WAF) on GitHub for validation. DASH SearchThe NCAR Dialect metadata drives cross-organization search and discovery through CKAN, which provides the display interface of search results. DASH search will establish interoperability by facilitating metadata sharing with other federated systems. DASH ConsultingThe DASH Data Curation & Stewardship Coordinator assists with Data Management (DM) Plan preparation and advises on Digital Object Identifiers. The coordinator arranges training sessions on the DASH metadata tools and DM planning, and provides one-on-one assistance as requested. DASH Repository

Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

2005-12-01

The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop

Climatic projections and socio economic impacts of the climatic change in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

2001-01-01

For the task of working out climate change projections, different methodologies have been in use, from simple extrapolations to sophisticated statistical and mathematical tools. Today, the tools most used are the models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, which include many processes of other climate components (biosphere, cryosphere, continental surface models, etc.). Different global and regional scenarios have been generated with those models. They may be of great utility in calculating projections and future scenarios for Colombia, but the representation of the country's climate in those models has to be improved in order to get projections with a higher level of certainty. The application of climate models and of the techniques of down scaling in studies of climate change is new both in Colombia and tropical America, and was introduced through the National University of Colombia's project on local and national climate change. In the first phase of the project, version 3 of the CCM (Climate Community Model) of NCAR was implemented. Parallel to that, and based on national (grid) data, maps have been prepared of the monthly temperature and precipitation of Colombia, which were used to validate the model

Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shaikh Mohammad Kais

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community’s capability of bouncing back—restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward—the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the ‘bouncing back’ and ‘moving forward’ properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community’s resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1 the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2 emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community’s resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions.

Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections

Science.gov (United States)

Kais, Shaikh Mohammad; Islam, Md Saidul

2016-01-01

In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community’s capability of bouncing back—restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward—the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the ‘bouncing back’ and ‘moving forward’ properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community’s resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1) the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2) emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community’s resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions. PMID:27929448

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dickinson, R.E.

1986-01-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project

Research on the climatic effects of nuclear winter: Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dickinson, R.E.

1986-12-03

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has undertaken a series of research efforts to develop and implement improvements to the Community Climate Model (CCM) needed to make the model more applicable to studies of the climatic effects of nuclear war. The development of the model improvements has reached a stage where implementation may proceed, and several of the developed routines are being incorporated into the next approved version of the CCM (CCM1). Formal documentation is being completed describing the specific model improvements that have been successfully implemented. This final report includes the series of annual proposals and progress reports that have guided the project.

Expanding Access to NCAR's Digital Assets: Towards a Unified Scientific Data Management System

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, D.

2016-12-01

In 2014 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Directorate created the Data Stewardship Engineering Team (DSET) to plan and implement the strategic vision of an integrated front door for data discovery and access across the organization, including all laboratories, the library, and UCAR Community Programs. The DSET is focused on improving the quality of users' experiences in finding and using NCAR's digital assets. This effort also supports new policies included in federal mandates, NSF requirements, and journal publication rules. An initial survey with 97 respondents identified 68 persons responsible for more than 3 petabytes of data. An inventory, using the Data Asset Framework produced by the UK Digital Curation Centre as a starting point, identified asset types that included files and metadata, publications, images, and software (visualization, analysis, model codes). User story sessions with representatives from each lab identified and ranked desired features for a unified Scientific Data Management System (SDMS). A process beginning with an organization-wide assessment of metadata by the HDF Group and followed by meetings with labs to identify key documentation concepts, culminated in the development of an NCAR metadata dialect that leverages the DataCite and ISO 19115 standards. The tasks ahead are to build out an SDMS and populate it with rich standardized metadata. Software packages have been prototyped and currently are being tested and reviewed by DSET members. Key challenges for the DSET include technical and non-technical issues. First, the status quo with regard to how assets are managed varies widely across the organization. There are differences in file format standards, technologies, and discipline-specific vocabularies. Metadata diversity is another real challenge. The types of metadata, the standards used, and the capacity to create new metadata varies across the organization. Significant effort is required to develop tools to create

A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

2013-02-01

We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cassano, John [Principal Investigator

2013-06-30

The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

Old-field Community, Climate and Atmospheric Manipulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aimee Classen

2009-11-01

We are in the process of finishing a number of laboratory, growth chamber and greenhouse projects, analyzing data, and writing papers. The projects reported addressed these subjects: How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground plant biomass and community structure; Effects of multiple climate changes factors on plant community composition and diversity: what did we learn from a 5-year open-top chamber experiment using constructed old-field communities; Do atmospheric and climatic change factors interact to alter woody seedling emergence, establishment and productivity; Soil moisture surpasses elevated CO{sub 2} and temperature in importance as a control on soil carbon dynamics; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground root and fungal biomass; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter soil microarthropod and microbial communities; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter belowground microbial function; Linking root litter diversity and microbial functioning at a micro scale under current and projected CO{sub 2} concentrations; Multifactor climate change effects on soil ecosystem functioning depend on concurrent changes in plant community composition; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter aboveground insect populations; How do climate and atmospheric changes alter festuca endophyte infection; How do climate and atmospheric changes soil carbon stabilization.

Regional decadal predictions of coupled climate-human systems

Science.gov (United States)

Curchitser, E. N.; Lawrence, P.; Felder, F.; Large, W.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Andrews, C.; Kopp, R. E.

2016-12-01

We present results from a project to develop a framework for investigating the interactions between human activity and the climate system using state-of-the-art multi-scale, climate and economic models. The model is applied to the highly industrialized and urbanized coastal region of the northeast US with an emphasis on New Jersey. The framework is developed around the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). The CESM model capabilities are augmented with enhanced resolution of the atmosphere (25 km), land surface (I km) and ocean models (7 km) in our region of interest. To the climate model, we couple human activity models for the utility sector and a 300-equation econometric model with sectorial details of an input-output model for the New Jersey economy. We will present results to date showing the potential impact of climate change on electricity markets on its consequences on economic activity in the region.

Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin A Reed

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s^-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness in Iran using NCEP/NCAR and GPCC datasets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Raziei

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Space-time variability of hydrological drought and wetness over Iran is investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset for the common period 1948–2007. The aim is to complement previous studies on the detection of long-term trends in drought/wetness time series and on the applicability of reanalysis data for drought monitoring in Iran. Climate conditions of the area are assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI on 24-month time scale, while Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Varimax rotation are used for investigating drought/wetness variability, and drought regionalization, respectively. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA is applied to the time series of interest to extract the leading nonlinear components and compare them with linear fittings.

Differences in drought and wetness area coverage resulting from the two datasets are discussed also in relation to the change occurred in recent years. NCEP/NCAR and GPCC are in good agreement in identifying four sub-regions as principal spatial modes of drought variability. However, the climate variability in each area is not univocally represented by the two datasets: a good agreement is found for south-eastern and north-western regions, while noticeable discrepancies occur for central and Caspian sea regions. A comparison with NCEP Reanalysis II for the period 1979–2007, seems to exclude that the discrepancies are merely due to the introduction of satellite data into the reanalysis assimilation scheme.

Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Zhang, J.; Bao, Q.

2016-12-01

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA infrastructure and technology have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences for three years since 2014. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets and analysis tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. A provenance management system for CMDA is developed to keep track of students' usages of CMDA, and to recommend datasets and analysis tools for their research topic. The provenance system also allows students to revisit their analysis results and share them with their group. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each use case developed is described and listed in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered from the use case, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the exact analysis service call with all the input arguments filled. For example, one science use case is the evaluation of NCAR CAM5 model with MODIS total cloud fraction. The analysis service used is Difference Plot Service of

Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

Communities under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

2011-01-01

The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

Doing Climate Science in Indigenous Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Pandya, R. E.; Bennett, B.

2009-12-01

Historically, the goal of broadening participation in the geosciences has been expressed and approached from the viewpoint of the majority-dominated geoscience community. The need for more students who are American Indian, Native Hawaiian, or Alaska Native is expressed in terms of the need to diversify the research community, and strategies to engage more students are often posed around the question “what can we do to get more indigenous students interested in coming to our institutions to do geosciences?” This approach can lead to neglecting indigenous ways of knowing, inadvertently prioritizes western values over traditional ones, and doesn’t necessarily honor tribal community’s desire to hold on to their talented youth. Further, while this approach has resulted in some modest success, the overall participation in geoscience by students from indigenous backgrounds remains low. Many successful programs, however, have tried an alternate approach; they begin by approaching the geosciences from the viewpoint of indigenous communities. The questions they ask center around how geosciences can advance the priorities of indigenous communities, and their approaches focus on building capacity for the geosciences within indigenous communities. Most importantly, perhaps, these efforts originate in Tribal communities themselves, and invite the geoscience research community to partner in projects that are rooted in indigenous culture and values. Finally, these programs recognize that scientific expertise is only one among many skills indigenous peoples employ in their relation with their homelands. Climate change, like all things related to the landscape, is intimately connected to the core of indigenous cultures. Thus, emerging concerns about climate change provide a venue for developing new, indigenous-centered, approaches to the persistent problem of broadening participation in the geoscience. This presentation will highlight three indigenous-led efforts in to

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

KAUST Repository

Xu, Zhongfeng

2012-09-01

An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

2008-01-24

We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kardol, Paul [ORNL; Cregger, Melissa [ORNL; Campany, Courtney E [ORNL; Classen, Aimee T [ORNL

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct

Engaging Youth on Climate & Health to Cultivate Community Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, D. B.; Gray, K. M.; Chang, D.; Morton, T.; Steele, B.; Backus, A.; Hauptman, M.

2017-12-01

Cultivating climate literacy among youth positions them to develop solutions and advocate for actions that prepare communities to adapt to climate change, mitigate emissions and ultimately protect human health and well-being, with an eye towards protecting the most vulnerable populations. This presentation will describe an innovative partnership among three university environmental health programs—based at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Columbia University and Harvard University—and their community collaborators: the Alliance for Climate Education, Boston Children's Hospital Pediatric Environmental Health Center and WE ACT for Environmental Justice. This project engages youth through non-formal educational programming that promotes climate literacy while also building the capacity of today's youth to promote community resilience. This partnership led to the development and implementation of two, long-duration extracurricular youth science enrichment programs in 2017, one in North Carolina (NC) and one in New York, with joint activities conducted virtually and in person to connect students with each other and with leading public health professionals and others working to promote community resilience and climate justice. Forty high school students, 20 from central NC and 20 from West Harlem in New York City, are enrolled in each program. In July 2017, students came together for a 3-day summer institute in NC. This session will feature the strategies, STEM-based activities and resources used in this project to engage students in the examination of their communities, identification and evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and promotion of community resilience. Programming entailed having students interact with public health professionals, scientists and others to learn about climate impacts to public health and its infrastructure, vulnerable populations and planning for resilient communities. Ultimately, we sought to promote

Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

2017-01-01

The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

Parallel community climate model: Description and user`s guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drake, J.B.; Flanery, R.E.; Semeraro, B.D.; Worley, P.H. [and others

1996-07-15

This report gives an overview of a parallel version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, CCM2, implemented for MIMD massively parallel computers using a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallel implementation was developed on an Intel iPSC/860 with 128 processors and on the Intel Delta with 512 processors, and the initial target platform for the production version of the code is the Intel Paragon with 2048 processors. Because the implementation uses a standard, portable message-passing libraries, the code has been easily ported to other multiprocessors supporting a message-passing programming paradigm. The parallelization strategy used is to decompose the problem domain into geographical patches and assign each processor the computation associated with a distinct subset of the patches. With this decomposition, the physics calculations involve only grid points and data local to a processor and are performed in parallel. Using parallel algorithms developed for the semi-Lagrangian transport, the fast Fourier transform and the Legendre transform, both physics and dynamics are computed in parallel with minimal data movement and modest change to the original CCM2 source code. Sequential or parallel history tapes are written and input files (in history tape format) are read sequentially by the parallel code to promote compatibility with production use of the model on other computer systems. A validation exercise has been performed with the parallel code and is detailed along with some performance numbers on the Intel Paragon and the IBM SP2. A discussion of reproducibility of results is included. A user`s guide for the PCCM2 version 2.1 on the various parallel machines completes the report. Procedures for compilation, setup and execution are given. A discussion of code internals is included for those who may wish to modify and use the program in their own research.

Detection of 10B distributions in histological samples by NCAR using thermal and cold neutrons and photoluminiscent imaging plates. New results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rant, J.; Skvarc, J.; Ilic, R.; Gabel, D.; Bayon, G.; Yanagie, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Lehmann, E.; Kuehne, G.

1999-01-01

The Neutron Capture Autoradiography (NCAR) using various Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (SSNTDs) is a well established and accurate method to detect and measure the distributions of 10 B in the ppm range on macroscopic and microscopic level in biological samples, such as histological sections of tumours loaded with 10 B compounds used for BNCT (e.g. 1,2). recently a new technique of NCAR using sensitive photoluminescent Imaging Plates (IP) has been proposed to detect 10 B distributions in histological sections (3), exploiting excellent detection properties of IP systems such as very high detection sensitivity and quantum detection efficiency, broad linear response and dynamic range, very small image distortion, reusability of IP and possibilities of digital autoradiography. The advantage of IP-NCAR vs. NCAR with SSNTDs should be the much lower neutron fluence (10 7 10 9 vs. 10 10 10 13 n/cm 2 with SSNTDs), no intermediate chemical treatment (track etching) and direct and fast compuitational handling and evaluation of the digitized autoradiographic image. However, the spatial resolution of the present available IP detection systems is somewhat lower (∼ 0,04 mm) than with SSNTDs (∼ 0,01 mm). Another problem with IP NCAR is rather high sensitivity of IP to all types of ionizing radiations. Therefore the background of direct and induced gamma-rays as well as of epithermal and fast neutrons has to be filtered out of thermal neutron beam to be used for IP-NCAR. To improve the signal/background ratio and to increase the detectibility of 10 B we propose to use clean cold neutron beams for the IP-NCAR of 10 B distributions in histological samples in BNCT experiments (4,5). In the present work the recent results of experiments in IP-NCAR with cold neutrons from the neutron radiographic channel of the ORPHEE reactor in Saclay and with the rather clean thermal neutron beam of the NEUTRA neutron radiography facility of the PSI (Villingen) will be presented. For the

Engaging with Underserved Urban Communities on Climate Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, K.; Moser, F. C.; Baja, K.; Dindinger, J. M.; Chanse, V.; Rowan, K. E.; Rohring, B.

2016-12-01

Meeting the needs of urban high-risk/low-resource communities is one of the most critical challenges in improving climate resilience nationally, but little tailored information exists to guide community engagement efforts specifically for these contexts. This case study describes a collaboration between universities, local governments, and community members working in underserved neighborhoods of the City of Baltimore and Prince George's County, Maryland. In service of current and developing community programs, the team surveyed residents door-to-door about their perceptions of the socio-environmental risks they face, their priorities for change, and the ways in which communication may build protective social capital. We highlight theoretical, applied, and pedagogical aspects of the study that inform both the promise and limitations of these collaborations. These include: 1) the role of citizen participation in climate adaptation decision-making; 2) the meaning, use, and potential impact of community data; 3) balancing differing organizational priorities, timelines, and cultures within community-based projects; and 4) research participation of undergraduate students. The results of the survey illuminate climate risk perceptions in neighborhoods facing complex stressors with lessons for communication and engagement in other urban areas facing similar adaptation challenges.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Blonder, Benjamin; Nogués-Bravo, David; Borregaard, Michael K; Donoghue, John C; Jørgensen, Peter M; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Violle, Cyrille; Rahbek, Carsten; Enquist, Brian J

2015-04-01

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

ARCAS (ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System) -- a Web Access System for Climate Model Data Access, Visualization and Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Hakkarinen, C.; Brown, D.; Callahan, J.; hankin, S.; de Koningh, M.; Middleton-Link, D.; Wigley, T.

2001-05-01

A Web-based access system to climate model output data sets for intercomparison and analysis has been produced, using the NOAA-PMEL developed Live Access Server software as host server and Ferret as the data serving and visualization engine. Called ARCAS ("ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System"), and publicly accessible at http://dataserver.ucar.edu/arcas, the site currently serves climate model outputs from runs of the NCAR Climate System Model for the 21st century, for Business as Usual and Stabilization of Greenhouse Gas Emission scenarios. Users can select, download, and graphically display single variables or comparisons of two variables from either or both of the CSM model runs, averaged for monthly, seasonal, or annual time resolutions. The time length of the averaging period, and the geographical domain for download and display, are fully selectable by the user. A variety of arithmetic operations on the data variables can be computed "on-the-fly", as defined by the user. Expansions of the user-selectable options for defining analysis options, and for accessing other DOD-compatible ("Distributed Ocean Data System-compatible") data sets, residing at locations other than the NCAR hardware server on which ARCAS operates, are planned for this year. These expansions are designed to allow users quick and easy-to-operate web-based access to the largest possible selection of climate model output data sets available throughout the world.

GPM GROUND VALIDATION NCAR CLOUD MICROPHYSICS PARTICLE PROBES MC3E V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The GPM Ground Validation NCAR Cloud Microphysics Particle Probes MC3E dataset was collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E),...

The Next Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar: NCAR/EOL Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR) Development

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, James; Lee, Wen-Chau; Loew, Eric; Vivekanandan, Jothiram; Grubišić, Vanda; Tsai, Peisang; Dixon, Mike; Emmett, Jonathan; Lord, Mark; Lussier, Louis; Hwang, Kyuil; Ranson, James

2017-04-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth observing Laboratory (EOL) is entering the third year of preliminary system design studies, engineering prototype testing and project management plan preparation for the development of a novel Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR). This system being designed by NCAR/EOL will be installed and operated on the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft. The APAR system will consist of four removable C-band Active Electronically Scanned Arrays (AESA) strategically placed on the fuselage of the aircraft. Each AESA measures approximately 1.5 x 1.9 m and is composed of 3000 active radiating elements arranged in an array of line replaceable units (LRU) to simplify maintenance. APAR will provide unprecedented observations, and in conjunction with the advanced radar data assimilation schema, will be able to address the key science questions to improve understanding and predictability of significant and high-impact weather APAR, operating at C-band, allows the measurement of 3-D kinematics of the more intense portions of storms (e.g. thunderstorm dynamics and tornadic development, tropical cyclone rainband structure and evolution) with less attenuation compared with current airborne Doppler radar systems. Polarimetric measurements are not available from current airborne tail Doppler radars. However, APAR, with dual-Doppler and dual polarization diversity at a lesser attenuating C-band wavelength, will further advance the understanding of the microphysical processes within a variety of precipitation systems. The radar is sensitive enough to provide high resolution measurements of winter storm dynamics and microphysics. The planned APAR development that would bring the system to operational readiness for research community use aboard the C-130 is expected to take 8 years once major funding support is realized. The authors will review the overall APAR design and provide new details of the system based on our Technical Requirements Document

Coaching small communities towards a climate stretegy plan -- experiences from Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gormsen, D. [City of Malmoe (Sweden). Environment Dept.

2008-07-01

Working on climate change mitigation and adaptation is often more difficult for small communities than is the case for larger cities. Smaller cities and towns may lack the resources and time to take up this work in a comprehensive manner, which is usually not prescribed as a local governmental task by national law but instead is performed voluntarily. In Sweden, applications for a national climate investment fund have shown that small and medium-sized communities are represented to a very small degree among applicants to the fund. To address this gap, the Swedish Network of Municipalities on Climate Change initiated a project called 'Climate coaching -- support to local activities on climate change in small communities', which started in January 2007. Twenty-three small communities joined the project that aims at the production of sustainable energy and the development of climate plans in at least 11 of the participants by September 2008. The remaining communities should by then at least be in the process of developing a climate strategy. The communities receive direct support from a climate coach who visits the communities, arranges seminars of common interest to the participants, and gives support via email and telephone. Additional support comes also from the existing Swedish Network of Municipalities on Climate Change and their 23 members. The results show so far that a number of factors are important for the success of local work. These include the following: The responsibility for the work has to be clear within the municipal organization; The responsible officers need to have time and resources which will allow them to work with climate issues; The politicians should support the commitment of the officers; and It is also important that attention is paid to the establishment of a suitable internal organization for climate mitigation and adaptation, and that this process is allowed to take time. When these issues are in place this will guarantee that

Climate, Carbon, Conservation and Communities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaugn, Kit; Brickell, Emily [WWF-UK (United Kingdom); Roe, Dilys; Reid, Hannah; Elliot, Jo

2007-07-01

The growing market for carbon offers great opportunities for linking greenhouse gas mitigation with conservation of forests and biodiversity, and the generation of local livelihoods. For these combined objectives to be achieved, strong governance is needed along with institutions that ensure poor people win, rather than lose out, from the new challenges posed by climate change. This briefing paper explores the opportunities from and limitations to carbon-based funds for conservation and development. It highlights mechanisms that may help secure benefits for climate, conservation and communities.

Community College Organizational Climate for Minorities and Women

Science.gov (United States)

Townsend, Barbara K.

2009-01-01

This paper explores the issues of what would constitute a positive organizational climate for women and minorities within the community college setting and ways in which such a climate might be achieved. It first describes some traditional or standard measures of a positive organizational climate for women and minorities and then evaluates how…

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvis Modikela Nkoana

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

Decoding the Digital Campus Climate for Prospective LGBTQ+ Community Colleges Students

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jason L.; Dockendorff, Kari J.; Inselman, Kyle

2018-01-01

LGBTQ+ students are increasingly visible on community college campuses, and a safe and welcoming campus climate is critical to LGBTQ+ students' academic success and well-being. Campus climate is difficult to assess for prospective LGBTQ+ community college students, and institutional websites may be a source of information about campus climate.…

Application of the system of assimilation of climatic data (CDAS) of the Project NCEP/NCAR - Reanalysis Dates Set For climatological and synoptic ends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

2001-01-01

In response to an increasing demand of meteorological information on a synoptic scale and the need for a better and more precise knowledge of the different atmospheric fields on a local, regional and global scale, the program known as GRADS, developed by COLA in the US, has been implemented. to show graphically meteorological patterns at the surface and at different levels in the troposphere and lower stratosphere based on high-quality grid data prepared by NCEP/NCAR (NOAA)

The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model*.

Science.gov (United States)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.

1998-06-01

Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1°-2°C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1-2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year. Time series of area-averaged SSTs for the NINO3 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific show that the CSM is producing about 60% of the amplitude of the observed variability in that region, consistent

Community-based adaptation to climate change: an update

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul

2009-06-15

Over a billion people - the world's poorest and most bulnerable communities – will bear the brunt of climate change. For them, building local capacity to cope is a vital step towards resilience. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is emerging as a key response to this challenge. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on autonomous adaptations to climate variability, such as the traditional baira or floating gardens of Bangladesh, which help small farmers' crops survive climate-driven floods. Above all, CBA is participatory – a process involving both local stakeholders, and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As such, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many regions, and is ripe for the reassessment offered here.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

Science.gov (United States)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Engaging diverse communities towards climate protection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nichols, J.; Imran, N. [Blekinge Inst. of Technology, Karlskrona (Sweden)

2008-07-01

Engaging urban communities as newcomers towards UN climate change targets is not only good governance but also a way of relating deliberative democracy to the human need of participation. This poster outlines effective multicultural engagement as it relates to strategic sustainable development. The presentation shares the benefits of broadening communication strategies from informing citizens to consultation and empowering diverse communities to participate in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites

The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

2013-02-01

Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

Community Earth System Model (CESM) Tutorial 2016 Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lamarque, Jean-Francois [Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD), Boulder, CO (United States)

2017-05-09

For the 2016 tutorial, NCAR/CGD requested a total budget of $70,000 split equally between DOE and NSF. The funds were used to support student participation (travel, lodging, per diem, etc.). Lectures and practical session support was primarily provided by local participants at no additional cost (see list below). The seventh annual Community Earth System Model (CESM) tutorial (2016) for students and early career scientists was held 8 – 12 August 2016. As has been the case over the last few years, this event was extremely successful and there was greater demand than could be met. There was continued interest in support of the NSF’s EaSM Infrastructure awards, to train these awardees in the application of the CESM. Based on suggestions from previous tutorial participants, the 2016 tutorial experience again provided direct connection to Yellowstone for each individual participant (rather than pairs), and used the NCAR Mesa Library. The 2016 tutorial included lectures on simulating the climate system and practical sessions on running CESM, modifying components, and analyzing data. These were targeted to the graduate student level. In addition, specific talks (“Application” talks) were introduced this year to provide participants with some in-depth knowledge of some specific aspects of CESM.

Analysis and Lessons Learned from an Online, Consultative Dialogue between Community Leaders and Climate Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Sylak-Glassman, E.; Clavin, C.

2016-12-01

Common approaches to climate resilience planning in the United States rely upon participatory planning approaches and dialogues between decision-makers, science translators, and subject matter experts. In an effort to explore alternative approaches support community climate resilience planning, a pilot of a public-private collaboration called the Resilience Dialogues was held in February and March of 2016. The Resilience Dialogues pilot was an online, asynchronous conversation between community leaders and climate experts, designed to help communities begin the process of climate resilience planning. In order to identify lessons learned from the pilot, we analyzed the discourse of the facilitated dialogues, administered surveys and conducted interviews with participants. Our analysis of the pilot suggests that participating community leaders found value in the consultative dialogue with climate experts, despite limited community-originated requests for climate information. Community leaders most often asked for advice regarding adaptation planning, including specific engineering guidance and advice on how to engage community members around the topic of resilience. Community leaders that had access to downscaled climate data asked experts about how to incorporate the data into their existing planning processes. The guidance sought by community leaders during the pilot shows a large range of hurdles that communities face in using climate information to inform their decision-making processes. Having a forum that connects community leaders with relevant experts and other community leaders who have familiarity with both climate impacts and municipal planning processes would likely help communities accelerate their resilience efforts.

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Community Partners. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

Science.gov (United States)

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines how community partners can support school climate improvements. Organizations and individuals can partner with schools in many different ways--from delivering or coordinating direct services to students and families inside or…

Urban Climate Risk Communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2016-01-01

of Beck’s forward-looking agenda for a post-Euro-centric social science, outlines the contours of such an urban-cosmopolitan ‘realpolitik’ of climate risks, as this is presently unfolding across East Asian world cities. Much more than a theory-building endeavour, the essay suggests, Beck’s sociology......Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology affords a much-needed rethinking of the transnational politics of climate change, not least in pointing to an emerging inter-urban geography of world cities as a potential new source of community, change and solidarity. This short essay, written in honour...... provides a standing invitation for further transnational dialogue and collaborative empirical work, in East Asia and beyond, on what are, arguably, the defining challenges for the 21st century world of global risks....

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive: a Data Education Center

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, G. S.; Schuster, D.

2015-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA), rda.ucar.edu, is not just another data center or data archive. It is a data education center. We not only serve data, we TEACH data. Weather and climate data is the original "Big Data" dataset and lessons learned while playing with weather data are applicable to a wide range of data investigations. Erroneous data assumptions are the Achilles heel of Big Data. It doesn't matter how much data you crunch if the data is not what you think it is. Each dataset archived at the RDA is assigned to a data specialist (DS) who curates the data. If a user has a question not answered in the dataset information web pages, they can call or email a skilled DS for further clarification. The RDA's diverse staff—with academic training in meteorology, oceanography, engineering (electrical, civil, ocean and database), mathematics, physics, chemistry and information science—means we likely have someone who "speaks your language." Data discovery is another difficult Big Data problem; one can only solve problems with data if one can find the right data. Metadata, both machine and human-generated, underpin the RDA data search tools. Users can quickly find datasets by name or dataset ID number. They can also perform a faceted search that successively narrows the options by user requirements or simply kick off an indexed search with a few words. Weather data formats can be difficult to read for non-expert users; it's usually packed in binary formats requiring specialized software and parameter names use specialized vocabularies. DSs create detailed information pages for each dataset and maintain lists of helpful software, documentation and links of information around the web. We further grow the level of sophistication of the users with tips, tutorials and data stories on the RDA Blog, http://ncarrda.blogspot.com/. How-to video tutorials are also posted on the NCAR Computational and Information Systems

Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, Forrest; Fung, Inez; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter; Foley, Jon; Covey, Curtis; John, Jasmin; Levis, Samuel; Post, W Mac; Vertenstein, Mariana; Stoeckli, Reto; Running, Steve; Heinsch, Faith Ann; Erickson, David; Drake, John

2006-01-01

Described here is the formulation of the CASA ' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C 4 MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA ' is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Impacts of Subgrid Heterogeneous Mixing between Cloud Liquid and Ice on the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen Process and Mixed-phase Clouds in NCAR CAM5

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Mixed-phase clouds are persistently observed over the Arctic and the phase partitioning between cloud liquid and ice hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds has important impacts on the surface energy budget and Arctic climate. In this study, we test the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) with the single-column and weather forecast configurations and evaluate the model performance against observation data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's M-PACE field campaign in October 2004 and long-term ground-based multi-sensor remote sensing measurements. Like most global climate models, we find that CAM5 also poorly simulates the phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds by significantly underestimating the cloud liquid water content. Assuming pocket structures in the distribution of cloud liquid and ice in mixed-phase clouds as suggested by in situ observations provides a plausible solution to improve the model performance by reducing the Wegner-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process rate. In this study, the modification of the WBF process in the CAM5 model has been achieved with applying a stochastic perturbation to the time scale of the WBF process relevant to both ice and snow to account for the heterogeneous mixture of cloud liquid and ice. Our results show that this modification of WBF process improves the modeled phase partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. The seasonal variation of mixed-phase cloud properties is also better reproduced in the model in comparison with the long-term ground-based remote sensing observations. Furthermore, the phase partitioning is insensitive to the reassignment time step of perturbations.

Community based adaptations to climate change: experiences of the Mijikenda Community in Coastal Kenya

OpenAIRE

Groh, Maxie Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Small-scale farmers in Africa are among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Macro level climate change policies are having little positive impacts on their livelihoods. However, at the local level, communities are innovating and adapting to climate change. While these innovations are not enough to guarantee extensive adaptation to climate change, they are an important element for the survival of agrarian societies and botanical diversity. It is therefore importan...

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

2014-01-01

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jennings, Simon; Brander, Keith

2010-01-01

for the community under the same climate scenario. The main weakness of the community approach is that the methods predict abundance and production by size-class rather than taxonomic group, and society would be particularly concerned if climate driven changes had a strong effect on the relative production...... of fishable and non-fishable species in the community. The main strength of the community approach is that it provides widely applicable ‘null’ models for assessing the biological effects of climate change and a baseline for model comparisons.......Climate effects on the structure and function of marine communities have received scant attention. The few existing approaches for predicting climate effects suggest that community responses might be predicted from the responses of component populations. These approaches require a very complex...

Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoffman, Forrest [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Fung, Inez [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Randerson, Jim [University of California at Irvine, Irvine, California (United States); Thornton, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Foley, Jon [University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Covey, Curtis [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); John, Jasmin [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Levis, Samuel [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Post, W Mac [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Stoeckli, Reto [Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado (United States); Running, Steve [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Heinsch, Faith Ann [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Erickson, David [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Drake, John [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States)

2006-09-15

Described here is the formulation of the CASA{sup '} biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C{sup 4}MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA{sup '} is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

2015-09-01

The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

Impact of Antarctic mixed-phase clouds on climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, R Paul; Gettelman, Andrew

2014-12-23

Precious little is known about the composition of low-level clouds over the Antarctic Plateau and their effect on climate. In situ measurements at the South Pole using a unique tethered balloon system and ground-based lidar reveal a much higher than anticipated incidence of low-level, mixed-phase clouds (i.e., consisting of supercooled liquid water drops and ice crystals). The high incidence of mixed-phase clouds is currently poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). As a result, the effects that mixed-phase clouds have on climate predictions are highly uncertain. We modify the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) GCM to align with the new observations and evaluate the radiative effects on a continental scale. The net cloud radiative effects (CREs) over Antarctica are increased by +7.4 Wm(-2), and although this is a significant change, a much larger effect occurs when the modified model physics are extended beyond the Antarctic continent. The simulations show significant net CRE over the Southern Ocean storm tracks, where recent measurements also indicate substantial regions of supercooled liquid. These sensitivity tests confirm that Southern Ocean CREs are strongly sensitive to mixed-phase clouds colder than -20 °C.

Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

2011-12-01

The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

2017-12-01

Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this

Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Hanrahan, J.

2015-12-01

While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.

Exploring the Climate for Women as Community College Faculty.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagedorn, Linda Serra; Laden, Berta Vigil

2002-01-01

Provides a literature review and national dataset analyses regarding the perceived conditions of women community college faculty members. Reports that the climate at the average community college may be friendlier than at four-year institutions; however, women faculty at community colleges are not free from the confines of glass ceilings, academic…

Community gardens as a strategy for coping with climate shocks in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Drought is the most important climate shock affecting rural farmers this century. In a bid to reduce the effects of climate shocks, coping strategies are being investigated. Community gardens is one such strategy. The purpose of the study was to objectively look at the dynamics involved in community gardens, that is, the ...

Psychosocial influences on safety climate: evidence from community pharmacies.

Science.gov (United States)

Phipps, Denham L; Ashcroft, Darren M

2011-12-01

To examine the relationship between psychosocial job characteristics and safety climate. Cross-sectional survey. Community pharmacies in Great Britain. Participants A random sample of community pharmacists registered in Great Britain (n = 860). Survey instruments Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) indicator and Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ). Main outcome measures Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire (PSCQ). The profile of scores from the ERI indicated a relatively high risk of adverse psychological effects. The profile of scores from the JCQ indicated both high demand on pharmacists and a high level of psychological and social resources to meet these demands. Path analysis confirmed a model in which the ERI and JCQ measures, as well as the type of pharmacy and pharmacist role, predicted responses to the PSCQ (χ(2)(36) = 111.38, p demand) accounted for the effect of job characteristics on safety climate ratings; each had differential effects on the PSCQ scales. The safety climate in community pharmacies is influenced by perceptions of job characteristics, such as the level of job demands and the resources available to meet these demands. Hence, any efforts to improve safety should take into consideration the effect of the psychosocial work environment on safety climate. In addition, there is a need to address the presence of work-related stressors, which have the potential to cause direct or indirect harm to staff and service users. The findings of the current study provide a basis for future research to improve the safety climate and well-being, both in the pharmacy profession and in other healthcare settings.

The Climate Literacy Network: Leveraging a Diverse Community to Broaden the Reach of Your Climate Literacy Efforts

Science.gov (United States)

Ledley, T. S.; Carley, S.; Niepold, F.; Duggan-Haas, D. A.; Hollweg, K.; McCaffrey, M. S.

2012-12-01

There are a wide range of programs, activities, and projects focused on improving the understanding of climate science by citizens in a multitude of contexts. While most of these are necessarily customized for the particular audiences, communities, or regions they address, they can learn a lot from each other by sharing their experiences, expertise, and materials. The Climate Literacy Network (CLN, http://cleanet.org/cln), established in 2008 to facilitate the implementation of the Climate Literacy Essential Principles of Climate Science, is a diverse group of over 370 stakeholders with a wide range of expertise in, for example, science, policy, media, arts, economics, psychology, education, and social sciences. The CLN meets virtually weekly to share information about ongoing activities and new resources, discuss controversial public issues and ways to address them, get input from this diverse community on directions individual efforts might take, organize climate literacy sessions at professional meetings, provide input on documents relevant to climate literacy, and address common needs of the individual members. The weekly CLN teleconferences are also a venue for presentations from climate change education efforts to extend their reach and potential impact. The teleconferences are supported by an active listserv that is archived on the CLN website along with recordings of past teleconference and the schedule of upcoming teleconferences (http://cleanet.org/clean/community/cln/telecon_schedule.html). In this presentation we will describe the details of these various activities, give examples of how discussions within the CLN has led to funded efforts and expanded partnerships, and identify ways you can participate in and leverage this very active community.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Preparing US community greenhouse gas inventories for climate action plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackhurst, Michael; Scott Matthews, H; Hendrickson, Chris T; Sharrard, Aurora L; Azevedo, Ines Lima

2011-01-01

This study illustrates how alternative and supplemental community-level greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory techniques could improve climate action planning. Eighteen US community GHG inventories are reviewed for current practice. Inventory techniques could be improved by disaggregating the sectors reported, reporting inventory uncertainty and variability, and aligning inventories with local organizations that could facilitate emissions reductions. The potential advantages and challenges of supplementing inventories with comparative benchmarks are also discussed. While GHG inventorying and climate action planning are nascent fields, these techniques can improve CAP design, help communities set more meaningful emission reduction targets, and facilitate CAP implementation and progress monitoring.

Preparing US community greenhouse gas inventories for climate action plans

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blackhurst, Michael [Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1752, Austin, TX 78712-0276 (United States); Scott Matthews, H; Hendrickson, Chris T [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Sharrard, Aurora L [Green Building Alliance, 333 East Carson Street, Suite 331, Pittsburgh, PA 15219 (United States); Azevedo, Ines Lima, E-mail: mblackhurst@gmail.com, E-mail: hsm@cmu.edu, E-mail: auroras@gbapgh.org, E-mail: cth@andrew.cmu.edu, E-mail: iazevedo@cmu.edu [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 119 Porter Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

2011-07-15

This study illustrates how alternative and supplemental community-level greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory techniques could improve climate action planning. Eighteen US community GHG inventories are reviewed for current practice. Inventory techniques could be improved by disaggregating the sectors reported, reporting inventory uncertainty and variability, and aligning inventories with local organizations that could facilitate emissions reductions. The potential advantages and challenges of supplementing inventories with comparative benchmarks are also discussed. While GHG inventorying and climate action planning are nascent fields, these techniques can improve CAP design, help communities set more meaningful emission reduction targets, and facilitate CAP implementation and progress monitoring.

Gender and climate change-induced conflict in pastoral communities

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

30 juin 2011 ... Climate change poses serious challenges to the already precarious livelihoods of pastoral communities in East Africa. Now, climate-related resource scarcities are increasing the likelihood of violent conflict. Women are often most vulnerable to such violence. Understanding the drivers of this environmental ...

CLIMATE CHANGE AND COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICTS: ARE THEY CORRELATED?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achmad Romsan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change and global warming affect major change in freshwater availability and season uncertainty which hamper all part of the globe. Although the phenomenon is not new but it needs concerns from all the government of States around the world to  address the problem. If notthe drought and water shortages will directly and indirectly be the world problem and finally will ignite conflict over resources.Pollution and environmental degradation will also affect the sustainability of community’s economic activities. In Indonesia, since the enforcement of the first Environmental Management Act of 1982 up to the third Environmental Management Act of 2019, there have been forty one conflicts involving community and industries and palm plantation companies. All the conflicts are brought before the courts. Herein, industries and plantations are blamed for responsible for river water pollution and environmental degradation. Unfortunately, there is very little information in Indonesia obtained from the research reports, journals, news papers, magazines whether climate change and global warming also responsible for the occurrence of community environmental conflict. From the second data sources obtained from outsite Indonesia it is found that there is a link between climate change and community environmental disputes. The objectives of this paper tryto examine whether the cases submitted and solved by the District Courtsalso have some connection with the climate change phenomenon. Other objectives are to recommend to the Government of Indonesia to strengthen the existing regulations dealing with the climate change

Collaboration in Action: Working with Indigenous peoples and Tribal communities to navigate climate decision support organizations and programs to assist Tribal communities in addressing climate resilience and sustainability efforts

Science.gov (United States)

Caldwell, C. M.

2017-12-01

Creating opportunities and appropriate spaces with Tribal communities to engage with western scientists on climate resiliency is a complex endeavor. The shifting of seasons predicted by climate models and the resulting impacts that climate scientists investigate often verify what Traditional knowledge has already revealed to Indigenous peoples as they continue to live on, manage, and care for the environment they have been a part of for thousands of years. However, this convergence of two ways of knowing about our human environmental relationships is often difficult to navigate because of the ongoing impacts of colonialism and the disadvantage that Tribes operate from as a result. Day to day priorities of the Tribe are therefore reflective of more immediate issues rather than specifically considering the uncertainties of climate change. The College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute has developed a climate resilience program aimed at combining western science methodologies with indigenous ways of knowing as a means to assist Tribes in building capacity to address climate and community resiliency through culturally appropriate activities led by the Tribes. The efforts of the Institute, as guided by the SDI theoretical model of sustainability, have resulted in a variety of research, education and outreach projects that have provided not only the Menominee community, but other Tribal communities with opportunities to address climate resiliency as they see fit.

Engaging Key Stakeholders in Climate Change: A Community-Based Project for Youth-Led Participatory Climate Action

Science.gov (United States)

Trott, Carlie D.

Few studies have examined how youth think about, and take action on climate change and far fewer have sought to facilitate their engagement using participatory methods. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of Science, Camera, Action! (SCA), a novel after-school program that combined climate change education with participatory action through photovoice. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) Evaluate the impacts of SCA on youth participants' climate change knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors; (2) Examine how SCA participation served to empower youth agency; and (3) Explore SCA's influence on youths' science engagement. Participants were 55 youths (ages 10 to 12) across three Boys and Girls Club sites in Northern Colorado. SCA's Science component used interactive activities to demonstrate the interrelationships between Earth's changing climate, ecosystems, and sustainable actions within communities. Photovoice, SCA's Camera component, was used to explore youths' climate change perspectives and to identify opportunities for their active engagement. Finally, SCA's Action component aimed to cultivate youth potential as agents of change in their families and communities through the development and implementation of youth-led action projects. Action projects included local policy advocacy, a tree-planting campaign, a photo gallery opening, development of a website, and the establishment of a Boys and Girls Club community garden. To evaluate SCA impacts, a combination of survey and focus group methods were used. Following the program, youth demonstrated increased knowledge of the scientific and social dimensions of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as its solutions through human action. Though participants expressed a mix of positive (e.g., hope) and negative (e.g., sadness) emotions about climate change, they left the program with an increased sense of respect for nature, an enhanced sense of environmental responsibility, and a greater sense

Coral Reef Habitat Suitability in Future Climate Scenarios from NCAR CESM1 considering a Suite of Biogeochemical Variables

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, L. A.; Kleypas, J. A.; Miller, A. J.

2013-12-01

A maximum entropy species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe coral reef habitat in current climate conditions and to predict changes to that habitat during the 21st century. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for the family of corals Scleractina in 1° by 1° cells. Input environmental variables most suitable for representing coral habitat limitation are isolated using a principal component analysis and include cumulative thermal stress, salinity, light availability, current speed, phosphate levels and aragonite saturation state. Considering a suite of environmental variables allows for a more synergistic view of future habitat suitability, although individual variables are found to be limiting in certain areas- for example, aragonite saturation state is limiting at higher latitudes. Climate-driven coral reef habitat changes depend strongly on the oceanic region of interest and the region of corals used to train the niche model. Increased global coral habitat loss occurred in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections as time progressed through the 21th century. Maximum suitable habitat loss was 82% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When only Caribbean/Atlantic coral reef environmental data is applied globally, 88% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP8.5. The global runs utilizing only Pacific Ocean reefs' ability to survive showed the most significant worldwide loss, 90% by 2100 for RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained with Indian Ocean reefs, an increase in suitable habitat worldwide was estimated. Habitat suitability was found to increase by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. This suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future worldwide climate projections. Indian Ocean reefs may be ideal candidate

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Climate impacts on fungal community and trait dynamics

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Andrew, C.; Heegaard, E.; Halvorsen, R.; Martinez-Pena, F.; Egli, S.; Kirk, P.M.; Baessler, C.; Büntgen, Ulf; Aldea, J.; Hoiland, K.; Boddy, L.; Kauserud, H.

2016-01-01

Roč. 22, aug (2016), s. 17-25 ISSN 1754-5048 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear dimensionality reduction * root-tip communities * ectomycorrhizal fungi * environmental drivers * resource availability * mycorrhizal fungi * fruit bodies * soil * forest * patterns * Community structure * Fungi-forest-climate interactions * Life-history traits * Long-term data * Successional models Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.219, year: 2016

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate ...

Science.gov (United States)

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience—vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state, and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptua

Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Tozer

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Climate interacts with soil to produce beta diversity in Californian plant communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez-Going, B M; Harrison, S P; Anacker, B L; Safford, H D

2013-09-01

Spatially distinct communities can arise through interactions and feedbacks between abiotic and biotic factors. We suggest that, for plants, patches of infertile soils such as serpentine may support more distinct communities from those in the surrounding non-serpentine matrix in regions where the climate is more productive (i.e., warmer and/or wetter). Where both soil fertility and climatic productivity are high, communities may be dominated by plants with fast-growing functional traits, whereas where either soils or climate impose low productivity, species with stress-tolerant functional traits may predominate. As a result, both species and functional composition may show higher dissimilarity between patch and matrix in productive climates. This pattern may be reinforced by positive feedbacks, in which higher plant growth under favorable climate and soil conditions leads to higher soil fertility, further enhancing plant growth. For 96 pairs of sites across a 200-km latitudinal gradient in California, we found that the species and functional dissimilarities between communities on infertile serpentine and fertile non-serpentine soils were higher in more productive (wetter) regions. Woody species had more stress-tolerant functional traits on serpentine than non-serpentine soil, and as rainfall increased, woody species functional composition changed toward fast-growing traits on non-serpentine, but not on serpentine soils. Soil organic matter increased with rainfall, but only on non-serpentine soils, and the difference in organic matter between soils was positively correlated with plant community dissimilarity. These results illustrate a novel mechanism wherein climatic productivity is associated with higher species, functional, and landscape-level dissimilarity (beta diversity).

Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zongci Zhao

2011-01-01

@@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucek, Ross E; Rehage, Jennifer S

2014-06-01

The response of communities to climate extremes can be quite variable. Much of this variation has been attributed to differences in community-specific functional trait diversity, as well as community composition. Yet, few if any studies have explicitly tested the response of the functional trait structure of communities following climate extremes (CEs). Recently in South Florida, two independent, but sequential potential CEs took place, a 2010 cold front, followed by a 2011 drought, both of which had profound impacts on a subtropical estuarine fish community. These CEs provided an opportunity to test whether the structure of South Florida fish communities following each extreme was a result of species-specific differences in functional traits. From historical temperature (1927-2012) and freshwater inflows records into the estuary (1955-2012), we determined that the cold front was a statistically extreme disturbance, while the drought was not, but rather a decadal rare disturbance. The two disturbances predictably affected different parts of functional community structure and thus different component species. The cold front virtually eliminated tropical species, including large-bodied snook, mojarra species, nonnative cichlids, and striped mullet, while having little affect on temperate fishes. Likewise, the drought severely impacted freshwater fishes including Florida gar, bowfin, and two centrarchids, with little effect on euryhaline species. Our findings illustrate the ability of this approach to predict and detect both the filtering effects of different types of disturbances and the implications of the resulting changes in community structure. Further, we highlight the value of this approach to developing predictive frameworks for better understanding community responses to global change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Heather T. Root; Bruce. McCune; Sarah. Jovan

2014-01-01

Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

Life on thin ice: Insights from Uummannaq, Greenland for connecting climate science with Arctic communities

Science.gov (United States)

Baztan, Juan; Cordier, Mateo; Huctin, Jean-Michel; Zhu, Zhiwei; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-09-01

What are the links between mainstream climate science and local community knowledge? This study takes the example of Greenland, considered one of the regions most impacted by climate change, and Inuit people, characterized as being highly adaptive to environmental change, to explore this question. The study is based on 10 years of anthropological participatory research in Uummannaq, Northwest Greenland, along with two fieldwork periods in October 2014 and April 2015, and a quantitative bibliometric analysis of the international literature on sea ice - a central subject of concern identified by Uummannaq community members during the fieldwork periods. Community members' perceptions of currently available scientific climate knowledge were also collected during the fieldwork. This was done to determine if community members consider available scientific knowledge salient and if it covers issues they consider relevant. The bibliometric analysis of the sea ice literature provided additional insight into the degree to which scientific knowledge about climate change provides information relevant for the community. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the missing connections between community worldviews, cultural values, livelihood needs, interests and climate science. Our results show that more scientific research efforts should consider local-level needs in order to produce local-scale knowledge that is more salient, credible and legitimate for communities experiencing climate change. In Uummannaq, as in many Inuit communities with similar conditions, more research should be done on sea ice thickness in winter and in areas through which local populations travel. This paper supports the growing evidence that whenever possible, climate change research should focus on environmental features that matter to communities, at temporal and spatial scales relevant to them, in order to foster community adaptations to change. We recommend such research be connected to and

Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Middleton, Don

2006-08-01

The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

Peformance Tuning and Evaluation of a Parallel Community Climate Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drake, J.B.; Worley, P.H.; Hammond, S.

1999-11-13

The Parallel Community Climate Model (PCCM) is a message-passing parallelization of version 2.1 of the Community Climate Model (CCM) developed by researchers at Argonne and Oak Ridge National Laboratories and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the early to mid 1990s. In preparation for use in the Department of Energy's Parallel Climate Model (PCM), PCCM has recently been updated with new physics routines from version 3.2 of the CCM, improvements to the parallel implementation, and ports to the SGIKray Research T3E and Origin 2000. We describe our experience in porting and tuning PCCM on these new platforms, evaluating the performance of different parallel algorithm options and comparing performance between the T3E and Origin 2000.

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

2007-04-15

The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

Science.gov (United States)

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Ferrier, Simon; Lorenz, David J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa. PMID:26962143

Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

MacKenzie, Brian; Gislason, Henrik; Möllmann, C.

2007-01-01

reviewed. We then use recent regional - scale climate - ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity...... some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.......The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly...

Clouds-radiation interactions in a general circulation model - Impact upon the planetary radiation balance

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Laura D.; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.

1991-01-01

Simultaneously conducted observations of the earth radiation budget and the cloud amount estimates, taken during the June 1979 - May 1980 Nimbus 7 mission were used to show interactions between the cloud amount and raidation and to verify a long-term climate simulation obtained with the latest version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM). The parameterization of the radiative, dynamic, and thermodynamic processes produced the mean radiation and cloud quantities that were in reasonable agreement with satellite observations, but at the expense of simulating their short-term fluctuations. The results support the assumption that the inclusion of the cloud liquid water (ice) variable would be the best mean to reduce the blinking of clouds in NCAR CCM.

Revista Espinhaço entrevistaDra. Bette Otto Bliesner(NCAR Boulder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kourosh Behzadian

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Dra. Bette Otto Bliesner foi entrevistada pela Revista Espinhaço durante o BIARI 2016, que ocorreu em Providence (EUA na Brown University. Para este volume especial da Revista Espihaço, a Dra. Bette, pesquisadora do National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR e especialista em modelagem climática e paleo-climatologia, traz reflexões sobre seu recente trabalho no IPCC.Esta entrevista foi conduzida por Kourosh Behzadian (University of West London, Douglas Sathler (FIH/Cegeo/UFVJM and Lorena Fleury (UFRGS.

Building climate change adaptation on community experiences: Lessons from community-based natural resource management in southern Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chishakwe, Nyasha; Murray, Laurel; Chambwera, Muyeye

2012-05-15

This publication, produced in collaboration with WWF Southern Africa, looks at how community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) can inform and contribute to climate change adaptation at the community level, specifically to community-based adaptation (CBA) to climate change. It provides a framework for analysing the two approaches at conceptual and practical levels. Using case studies from southern Africa, the publication demonstrates the synergies between CBA and CBNRM, most important of which are the adaptation co-benefits between the two. While local incentives have driven community action in CBNRM, it is the evolution of an enabling environment in the region, in the form of institutions, policies, capacity and collaboration which characterises the scaling up of CBNRM to national and regional levels.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind...... plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic...... turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our...

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.

Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

2016-12-01

As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

2013-12-01

Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

Place Identity, Participation, and Emotional Climate in a Rural Community From the Northern Coast of Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Freire, Silvana; Espinosa, Agustín; Rottenbacher, Jan Marc

2015-01-01

Currently, in rural communities from the Peruvian northern coast, it is common to find a climate of distrust and pessimism that accompanies the lack of coordinated social action and community participation among residents. This study analyzes the relationships that people develop with regard to the place where they live in, how it associates to the ways they participate in their community and the relationship that these two variables have with the perceived emotional climate, in a rural community from the northern coast of Peru (n = 81). Results indicate that place identity is significantly associated with a high community participation and a climate of trust in the community. Finally, a Path Analysis is performed to analyze comprehensively the relationship between these variables. The results suggest that place identity does have an influence on perceived positive climate in the community, being mediated by the dimensions of community participation.

Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dennis, John M; Jacob, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Tony; Loy, Raymond

2007-01-01

Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10 0 resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4 0 resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-02-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-01-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

Science.gov (United States)

Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

2013-01-01

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

Same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michalakes, J.

1997-12-31

The Pennsylvania State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is a limited-area model of atmospheric systems, now in its fifth generation, MM5. Designed and maintained for vector and shared-memory parallel architectures, the official version of MM5 does not run on message-passing distributed memory (DM) parallel computers. The authors describe a same-source parallel implementation of the PSU/NCAR MM5 using FLIC, the Fortran Loop and Index Converter. The resulting source is nearly line-for-line identical with the original source code. The result is an efficient distributed memory parallel option to MM5 that can be seamlessly integrated into the official version.

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Feyrer, Frederick; Cloern, James E; Brown, Larry R; Fish, Maxfield A; Hieb, Kathryn A; Baxter, Randall D

2015-10-01

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Piani

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon, to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.

Monsoon and cyclone induced wave climate over the near shore waters off Puduchery, south western Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Glejin, J.; SanilKumar, V.; Nair, T.M.B.

. Reanalysis data, NCEP / NCAR (Kalnay et al. 1996), provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ at 10 m height with a temporal resolution of 6 hour intervals is used to analyze the wind pattern...

Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dennis, John M [Computer Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Jacob, Robert [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Craig, Tony [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Loy, Raymond [Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States)

2007-07-15

Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10{sup 0} resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4{sup 0} resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science.

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

Climate and fire are primary drivers of plant species distributions. Long-term management of south central United States woody vegetation communities can benefit from information on potential changes in climate and fire frequencies, and how these changes might affect plant communities. We used historical (1900 to 1929) and future (2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099) projected climate data for the conterminous US to estimate reference and future fire probabilities

An Efficient Workflow Environment to Support the Collaborative Development of Actionable Climate Information Using the NCAR Climate Risk Management Engine (CRMe)

Science.gov (United States)

Ammann, C. M.; Vigh, J. L.; Lee, J. A.

2016-12-01

Society's growing needs for robust and relevant climate information have fostered an explosion in tools and frameworks for processing climate projections. Many top-down workflows might be employed to generate sets of pre-computed data and plots, frequently served in a "loading-dock style" through a metadata-enabled search and discovery engine. Despite these increasing resources, the diverse needs of applications-driven projects often result in data processing workflow requirements that cannot be fully satisfied using past approaches. In parallel to the data processing challenges, the provision of climate information to users in a form that is also usable represents a formidable challenge of its own. Finally, many users do not have the time nor the desire to synthesize and distill massive volumes of climate information to find the relevant information for their particular application. All of these considerations call for new approaches to developing actionable climate information. CRMe seeks to bridge the gap between the diversity and richness of bottom-up needs of practitioners, with discrete, structured top-down workflows typically implemented for rapid delivery. Additionally, CRMe has implemented web-based data services capable of providing focused climate information in usable form for a given location, or as spatially aggregated information for entire regions or countries following the needs of users and sectors. Making climate data actionable also involves summarizing and presenting it in concise and approachable ways. CRMe is developing the concept of dashboards, co-developed with the users, to condense the key information into a quick summary of the most relevant, curated climate data for a given discipline, application, or location, while still enabling users to efficiently conduct deeper discovery into rich datasets on an as-needed basis.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sejas, Sergio A; Albert, Oriene S; Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi

2014-01-01

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heat flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Therefore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea. (letter)

Aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities of Prairie-Pothole wetlands and lakes under a changed climate

Science.gov (United States)

McLean, Kyle I.; Mushet, David M.; Renton, David A.; Stockwell, Craig A.

2016-01-01

Understanding how aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities respond to changes in climate is important for biodiversity conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region and other wetland-rich landscapes. We sampled macroinvertebrate communities of 162 wetlands and lakes previously sampled from 1966 to 1976, a much drier period compared to our 2012–2013 sampling timeframe. To identify possible influences of a changed climate and predation pressures on macroinvertebrates, we compared two predictors of aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities: ponded-water dissolved-ion concentration and vertebrate-predator presence/abundance. Further, we make inferences of how macroinvertebrate communities were structured during the drier period when the range of dissolved-ion concentrations was much greater and fish occurrence in aquatic habitats was rare. We found that aquatic-macroinvertebrate community structure was influenced by dissolved-ion concentrations through a complex combination of direct and indirect relationships. Ion concentrations also influenced predator occurrence and abundance, which indirectly affected macroinvertebrate communities. It is important to consider both abiotic and biotic gradients when predicting how invertebrate communities will respond to climate change. Generally, in the wetlands and lakes we studied, freshening of ponded water resulted in more homogenous communities than occurred during a much drier period when salinity range among sites was greater.

A systematic approach to community resilience that reduces the federal fiscal exposure to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Stwertka, C.; Albert, M. R.; White, K. D.

2016-12-01

Despite widely available information about the adverse impacts of climate change to the public, including both private sector and federal fiscal exposure, there remain opportunities to effectively translate this knowledge into action. Further delay of climate preparedness and resilience actions imposes a growing toll on American communities and the United States fiscal budget. We hypothesize that a set of four criteria must be met before a community can translate climate disturbances into preparedness action. We examine four case studies to review these proposed criteria, we discuss the critical success factors that can build community resilience, and we define an operational strategy that could support community resilience while reducing the federal fiscal exposure to climate change. This operational strategy defines a community response system that integrates social science research, builds on the strengths of different sectors, values existing resources, and reduces the planning-to-action time. Our next steps are to apply this solution in the field, and to study the dynamics of community engagement and the circular economy.

Characterizing hydrological activities over Yangtze River basin using the new HUST-Grace2016 model, MODIS, and NCEP/NCAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, H.; Luo, Z.; Tangdamrongsub, N.; He, L.

2017-12-01

Accurate TWS estimation is important to evaluate the situation of the water resource over the Yangtze River basin. This study exploits the TWS observation from the new gravity model, HUST-Grace06, which is developed by a new low-frequency noise processing strategy. A novel GRACE post-processing approach is proposed to enhance the quality of the TWS estimate, and the improved TWS is used to characterize the hydrological activities over the Yangtze River basin. The approach includes the effective noise reduction and the leakage error mitigation based on forward modeling. The HUST-Grace06 derived TWS presents good agreement with the CSR mascon solution as well as the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. Particularly, our solution provides remarkable performance in identifying the extreme climate events e.g., flood and drought over the Yangtze River basin. In addition, for the first time, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is incorporated with GRACE in the exploration of the climate induced hydrological activities. The comparison between GRACE and the MODIS-derived NDVI data is also conducted to investigate their connection regarding temporal and spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that the terrestrial reflectance data can be used to represent the TWS information. Importantly, such information can be used to fill the missing data in case of the early termination of GRACE or during the prelaunch of the GRACE Follow-On mission.

Flexible Environments for Grand-Challenge Simulation in Climate Science

Science.gov (United States)

Pierrehumbert, R.; Tobis, M.; Lin, J.; Dieterich, C.; Caballero, R.

2004-12-01

Current climate models are monolithic codes, generally in Fortran, aimed at high-performance simulation of the modern climate. Though they adequately serve their designated purpose, they present major barriers to application in other problems. Tailoring them to paleoclimate of planetary simulations, for instance, takes months of work. Theoretical studies, where one may want to remove selected processes or break feedback loops, are similarly hindered. Further, current climate models are of little value in education, since the implementation of textbook concepts and equations in the code is obscured by technical detail. The Climate Systems Center at the University of Chicago seeks to overcome these limitations by bringing modern object-oriented design into the business of climate modeling. Our ultimate goal is to produce an end-to-end modeling environment capable of configuring anything from a simple single-column radiative-convective model to a full 3-D coupled climate model using a uniform, flexible interface. Technically, the modeling environment is implemented as a Python-based software component toolkit: key number-crunching procedures are implemented as discrete, compiled-language components 'glued' together and co-ordinated by Python, combining the high performance of compiled languages and the flexibility and extensibility of Python. We are incrementally working towards this final objective following a series of distinct, complementary lines. We will present an overview of these activities, including PyOM, a Python-based finite-difference ocean model allowing run-time selection of different Arakawa grids and physical parameterizations; CliMT, an atmospheric modeling toolkit providing a library of 'legacy' radiative, convective and dynamical modules which can be knitted into dynamical models, and PyCCSM, a version of NCAR's Community Climate System Model in which the coupler and run-control architecture are re-implemented in Python, augmenting its flexibility

Evaluation of the Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire in European community pharmacies.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Phipps, D.L.; Bie, J. de; Herborg, H.; Guerreiro, M.; Eickhoff, C.; Fernandes-Llimos, F.; Bouvy, M.L.; Rossing, C.; Mueller, U.; Ashcroft, D.M.

2012-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the internal reliability, factor structure and construct validity of the Pharmacy Safety Climate Questionnaire (PSCQ) when applied to a pan-European sample of community pharmacies. Design: A cross-sectional survey design was used. Setting: Community pharmacies in Denmark,

Recognizing Community Voice and a Youth-Led School-Community Partnership in the School Climate Improvement Process

Science.gov (United States)

Ice, Megan; Thapa, Amrit; Cohen, Jonathan

2015-01-01

A growing body of school improvement research suggests that engaging all members of the school community, including community members and leaders, provides an essential foundation to successful school improvement efforts. School climate surveys to date tend to recognize student, parent/guardian, and school personnel voice but not the voice of…

Common Belief. Australia's Faith Communities on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-12-01

Sixteen Australian faith communities representing the world's great religious traditions have united to speak out on climate change: Aboriginal people, the Australian Christian lobby, Baha'i believers, Baptists, Buddhists, Catholics, Evangelical Christians, Greek Orthodox, Hindus, Jewish people, Lutherans, Muslims, The Salvation Army, Sikhs, The United Church

Climate Change Science Teaching through Integration of Technology in Instruction and Research

Science.gov (United States)

Sriharan, S.; Ozbay, G.; Robinson, L.; Klimkowski, V.

2015-12-01

This presentation demonstrates the importance of collaborations between the institutions with common focus on offering the academic program on climate change science. Virginia State University (VSU) developed and established the course on climate change and adaptation, AGRI 350 for undergraduates, in cooperation with two HBCUs, Delaware State University (DSU) and Morgan State University (MSU). This program was developed to enhance the science curriculum with funding from the USDA NIFA. The hands-on research opportunities for students were supported by the NSF HBCU UP Supplement Grant at VSU. The technical guidance and lesson plans were available through the courtesy of the AMS and faculty/student team training at the NCAR. In the initial stages, the faculty members participated in faculty development workshops hosted by the AMS and NCAR. This contributed to trained faculty members developing the courses on Climate Change at VSU, DSU, and MSU. To create awareness of global climate change and exposure of students to international programs, seven students from VSU, MSU, and DSU participated in the Climate Change course (ENS 320) at the University of Sunshine Coast (USC), Australia. This international experience included faculty members in using SimCLIM for climate change data into decision-making with regard to potential changes to cropping systems and tree growth. The Climate Change program at VSU, DSU, and MSU is emerging into comprehensive academic program which includes use of case studies and exchange of students' reflections with their peers through discussion board and videoconferencing, hands-on research on water quality monitoring and mapping the study sites, and integration of geospatial technologies and i-Tree. In addition, the students' engagement in intensive research was conducted through hands-on experience with Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Marine Science Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo in summer 2015.

Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

2001-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

2005-03-24

Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

Correlation between asthma and climate in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlato, Giuseppe; Calabrese, Rolando; De Marco, Roberto

2002-01-01

The European Community Respiratory Health Survey, performed during 1991-1993, found a remarkable geographical variability in the prevalence of asthma and asthma-like symptoms in individuals aged 20-44 yr. The highest values occurred in the English-speaking centers. In the present investigation, the ecological relationship between climate and symptom prevalence was evaluated in the 48 centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Meteorological variables were derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network and were averaged over an 11-yr period (i.e., 1980-1990). Respiratory symptom prevalence was directly related to temperature in the coldest month and was related inversely to the temperature in the hottest month. Warm winters and cool summers are features of oceanic climate found in most English-speaking centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (i.e., England, New Zealand, and Oregon). In conclusion, climate can account for significant geographic variability in respiratory symptom prevalence.

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

2017-11-14

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

507 community perception on climate change and usage patterns

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

forest-dependent communities as a strategy to cope with the impacts of climate change and variability around the ..... minimize or spread risks by managing a mix of crops, crop ... harvesting, processing and marketing of NTFPs is needed so as ...

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

1998-01-01

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

Lichen communities as climate indicators in the U.S. Pacific States.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert J. Smith; Sarah Jovan; Bruce. McCune

2017-01-01

Epiphytic lichens are bioindicators of climate, air quality, and other forest conditions and may reveal how forests will respond to global changes in the U.S. Pacific States of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. We explored climate indication with lichen communities surveyed by using both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Alaska...

Building a global federation system for climate change research: the earth system grid center for enabling technologies (ESG-CET)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ananthakrishnan, R; Bernholdt, D E; Bharathi, S; Brown, D; Chen, M; Chervenak, A L; Cinquini, L; Drach, R; Foster, I T; Fox, P; Fraser, D; Halliday, K; Hankin, S; Jones, P; Kesselman, C; Middleton, D E; Schwidder, J; Schweitzer, R; Schuler, R; Shoshani, A; Siebenlist, F; Sim, A; Strand, W G; Wilhelmi, N; Su, M; Williams, D N

2007-01-01

The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the US role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading US climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 180 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 250 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single sign-on of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide

Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ainka A. Granderson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

Student Leadership Distribution: Effects of a Student-Led Leadership Program on School Climate and Community

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Jeff; Yager, Stuart; Yager, Robert

2012-01-01

This study focuses on the understandings educators developed from two schools concerning how distributed leadership involving a select group of students affected the climate and community of their schools. Findings suggest that student-led leadership roles within the school community have an impact on creating a positive school-wide climate; a…

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

2016-03-15

Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

2015-12-01

Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

Games and Simulations for Climate, Weather and Earth Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, R. M.; Clark, S.

2015-12-01

We will demonstrate several interactive, computer-based simulations, games, and other interactive multimedia. These resources were developed for weather, climate, atmospheric science, and related Earth system science education. The materials were created by the UCAR Center for Science Education. These materials have been disseminated via our web site (SciEd.ucar.edu), webinars, online courses, teacher workshops, and large touchscreen displays in weather and Sun-Earth connections exhibits in NCAR's Mesa Lab facility in Boulder, Colorado. Our group has also assembled a web-based list of similar resources, especially simulations and games, from other sources that touch upon weather, climate, and atmospheric science topics. We'll briefly demonstrate this directory.

The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Niall, Stephanie; Walsh, Kevin

2005-11-01

Data from a number of locations around southeastern Australia were analysed to determine the influence of climate change on the frequency and intensity of hail events in this region. The relationship between Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), frequently used as a measure of atmospheric instability, and hailstorms was investigated using both NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (a data set comprising a blend of observations and model simulations) and also direct sounding data obtained from the Australian National Climate Centre. Two locations were chosen in southeastern Australia, Mount Gambier and Melbourne, over the months August to October for the period 1980-2001. A statistically significant relationship between hail incidence and CAPE values was established for both NCEP/NCAR and sounding data at both study sites. A stronger relationship was found between hail incidence and the CAPE, which was calculated using NCEP/NCAR data, than that between hail and the CAPE from the actual sounding data. A similar analysis was also conducted at both sites using the totals-totals index (TT index), which is an alternative measure of atmospheric instability.The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model was used to simulate values of CAPE for Mount Gambier in an environment containing double the pre-industrial concentrations of equivalent CO2. The results showed a significant decrease in CAPE values in the future. From this, assuming the relationship between CAPE and hail remains unchanged under enhanced greenhouse conditions, it is possible that there will be a decrease in the frequency of hail in southeastern Australia if current rates of CO2 emission are sustained. The severity of future hail events was investigated using crop-loss data from insurance companies. Strongest correlations were found between the crop-loss ratio (value of crop lost to hail damage over the total insured value of crop) and the number of days in a crop season with a TT index greater than 55. Results from the

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Science, Practitioners and Faith Communities: using TEK and Faith Knowledge to address climate issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, K.

2017-12-01

Worldview, Lifeway and Science - Communities that are tied to the land or water for their livelihood, and for whom subsistence guides their cultural lifeway, have knowledges that inform their interactions with the environment. These frameworks, sometimes called Traditional Ecological Knowledges (TEK), are based on generations of observations made and shared within lived life-environmental systems, and are tied to practitioners' broader worldviews. Subsistence communities, including Native American tribes, are well aware of the crises caused by climate change impacts. These communities are working on ways to integrate knowledge from their ancient ways with current observations and methods from Western science to implement appropriate adaptation and resilience measures. In the delta region of south Louisiana, the communities hold worldviews that blend TEK, climate science and faith-derived concepts. It is not incongruent for the communities to intertwine conversations from complex and diverse sources, including the academy, to inform their adaptation measures and their imagined solutions. Drawing on over twenty years of work with local communities, science organizations and faith institutions of the lower bayou region of Louisiana, the presenter will address the complexity of traditional communities' work with diverse sources of knowledge to guide local decision-making and to assist outside partners to more effectively address challenges associated with climate change.

Staff Turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (Act) Teams: The Role of Team Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Xi; Wholey, Douglas R; Cain, Cindy; Natafgi, Nabil

2017-03-01

Staff turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams can result in interrupted services and diminished support for clients. This paper examines the effect of team climate, defined as team members' shared perceptions of their work environment, on turnover and individual outcomes that mediate the climate-turnover relationship. We focus on two climate dimensions: safety and quality climate and constructive conflict climate. Using survey data collected from 26 ACT teams, our analyses highlight the importance of safety and quality climate in reducing turnover, and job satisfaction as the main mediator linking team climate to turnover. The findings offer practical implications for team management.

Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sejabaledi A. Rankoana

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Perceptions of climate change by rural communities are centered on observations of variations in temperature and rainfall patterns supported by observations and projections on climate alterations in the form of increased temperatures and scarce rainfall by scientists worldwide. The present study documented perceptions of climate variation and the community’s ability to adapt to climate change hazards threatening the production of subsistence crops. Data were collected through interactions with 100 participants. In the study, climate change is explained as variations in temperature and rainfall patterns which resulted in excessive heat, erratic rainfall patterns and drought negatively impacting on subsistence crop production. Community members have the potential to limit the impacts of climate hazards on subsistence crop production. The negative impacts of climate hazards are limited by community members’ indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction, the seasons, crop diversification and mixed cropping. Mulching and the application of kraal manure improve the soil structure and fertility to reduce crop failure. These adaptation measures are resilient to the negative impact of climate hazards and may be helpful in the development of adaptation policies to assist rural communities vulnerable to climate change hazards.

Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Nufio, César R; McGuire, Chris R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

2010-09-23

The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology. This study utilizes past (1959-1960) and present (2006-2008) surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m), A1 (2195 m), B1 (2591 m), and C1 (3048 m), located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1) warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs) associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season. Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger process

Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César R Nufio

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology.This study utilizes past (1959-1960 and present (2006-2008 surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m, A1 (2195 m, B1 (2591 m, and C1 (3048 m, located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1 warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season.Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger

Signals of Climate Change in Butterfly Communities in a Mediterranean Protected Area

Science.gov (United States)

Zografou, Konstantina; Kati, Vassiliki; Grill, Andrea; Wilson, Robert J.; Tzirkalli, Elli; Pamperis, Lazaros N.; Halley, John M.

2014-01-01

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be

Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

Science.gov (United States)

Zografou, Konstantina; Kati, Vassiliki; Grill, Andrea; Wilson, Robert J; Tzirkalli, Elli; Pamperis, Lazaros N; Halley, John M

2014-01-01

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012) and short-term (2011-2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be devised.

Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Konstantina Zografou

Full Text Available The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998-2011/2012 and short-term (2011-2012 changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990-2012 in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a species' elevational distributions in Greece and (b Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year. Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011-2012 variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species' resilience may have to be

Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

Science.gov (United States)

Xin, Y.

2017-12-01

Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that: 1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. 2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. 3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. 4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along 30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of

Increasing Communities Capacity to Effectively Address Climate Change Through Education, Civic Engagement and Workforce Development

Science.gov (United States)

Niepold, F., III; Ledley, T. S.; Stanton, C.; Fraser, J.; Scowcroft, G. A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes, effects, risks, and developing the social will and skills for responses to global change is a major challenge of the 21st century that requires coordinated contributions from the sciences, social sciences, humanities, arts, and beyond. There have been many effective efforts to implement climate change education, civic engagement and related workforce development programs focused on a multitude of audiences, topics and in multiple regions. This talk will focus on how comprehensive educational efforts across our communities are needed to support cities and their primary industries as they prepare for, and embrace, a low-carbon economy and develop the related workforce.While challenges still exist in identifying and coordinating all stakeholders, managing and leveraging resources, and resourcing and scaling effective programs to increase impact and reach, climate and energy literacy leaders have developed initiatives with broad input to identify the understandings and structures for climate literacy collective impact and to develop regional/metropolitan strategy that focuses its collective impact efforts on local climate issues, impacts and opportunities. This Climate Literacy initiative envisions education as a central strategy for community's civic actions in the coming decades by key leaders who have the potential to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities to seize opportunity and prosperity in a post-carbon and resilient future. This talk discusses the advances and collaborations in the Climate Change Education community over the last decade by U.S. federal and non-profit organization that have been made possible through the partnerships of the Climate Literacy & Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, and the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative.

The European Community and climate protection. What's behind the ''empty rhetoric''?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ringius, Lasse

1999-10-01

The EC has been hoping to play an environmental leadership role in the global climate negotiations and has been proposing comparatively stringent climate targets for the OECD countries. But especially the United States and to some extent the international environmental community have criticized the EC for being unable to develop effective climate policies that will achieve its ambitious targets. This publication shows that the EC in general expects that it is relatively inexpensive to implement climate policy within the EC and that its climate policy strategy from the beginning has been heavily influenced by the notion of environmental leadership. The defensive positions taken by the United States and Japan in the global climate negotiations have made EC environmental leadership seem simultaneously economically, environmentally and politically beneficial, and political and environmental interests have pushed EC climate policy to go further than what it otherwise would have been. (author)

Wind climate from the regional climate model REMO

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob; Berg, Jacob

2010-01-01

Selected outputs from simulations with the regional climate model REMO from the Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany were studied in connection with wind energy resource assessment. It was found that the mean wind characteristics based on observations from six mid-latitude stations are well...... described by the standard winds derived from the REMO pressure data. The mean wind parameters include the directional wind distribution, directional and omni-directional mean values and Weibull fitting parameters, spectral analysis and interannual variability of the standard winds. It was also found that......, on average, the wind characteristics from REMO are in better agreement with observations than those derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis pressure data. The spatial correlation of REMO surface winds in Europe...

Perception, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Irrigated Paddy Farmer Community to Face Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siska Rasiska Suantapura

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change has a real impact on the condition of agriculture in developing countries, including Indonesia. Irrigated paddy farmers are the ones really feeling the impact of climate change. Therefore, we need to understand the perceptions, mitigation and adaptation strategies of irrigated paddy farmer community to face climate change. The study is conducted in Indramayu and Tasikmalaya Regency in West Java by using descriptive survey method, regression analysis and path analysis through Structural Equation Modelling approach with Lisrel TM 8.5. The results showes that: (1 changes to climate variability affects the productivity of rice; (2 perception of irrigated paddy farmer community on climate change and its affects are influenced by internal and external factors; and (3 adaptation strategy are influenced by internal and external factors, whereas no mitigation strategy. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation strategies with site specific location are very necessary improving climate information services, increasing empowerment of farmers through field schools, and providing the provision of facilities that are practical and adaptive to climate.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

2015-01-01

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E

2015-07-02

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

A regional climate model for the Arctic and the North Atlantic; Ein regionales Klimamodell fuer die Arktis und den Nordatlantik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndt, H

2001-07-01

The Arctic and the subpolar region of the North Atlantic with their complex net of mechanisms and feedbacks play an important role in the climate system. Because of the sparse observations and the low resolution of the global models the high-resolution regional climate model REMO provides an improved tool to investigate arctic processes. REMO is based on the former numerical weather prediction model EM of the German Weather Service (DWD) and was further developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPIfM) in Hamburg. It has two different parameterization schemes - the original one called DWD-physics and additionally the ECHAM4-physics from MPIfM. The dynamical scheme is in both cases identical. In a first step REMO is adapted to the new domain. This configuration covers the Arctic and the North Atlantic down to 40 N with a horizontal resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 and 121 x 145 grid points. Different periods are simulated with DWD- and ECHAM4-Physics in forecast - as well as in climate-mode. Lateral boundary conditions are taken from NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Comparing REMO with ship observations in the Labrador Sea yields a better correspondence than the reanalysis data. Simulated precipitation is overestimated most probably due to unrealistic high humidity in the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis. Observed sensible heat fluxes are much lower than the REMO and NCEP/NCAR simulated fluxes. REMO simulations in climate- and forecast-mode with ECHAM4-parameterizations are compared with measured surface temperatures and precipitation distributions. While there are numerically generated spectral spikes in the NCEP/NCAR precipitation fields in the Arctic, they are not found in the REMO results. In a sensitivity study the impact of higher surface roughness in the marginal ice zone is investigated. Ensemble experiments show the high internal variability masking any signals due to the changed roughness length. This high internal variability is mostly due to the large model domain and the

Philosophy of sufficiency economy for community-based adaptation to climate change: Lessons learned from Thai case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Major components within the philosophy of a sufficiency economy include moderation, prudence, and self-immunity together with knowledge and morality. These components were proposed to safeguard local communities from adverse changes and crises. Climatic crises due to global warming can impact upon local agricultural production and consumption systems. Yet, it is still questionable whether communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy can cope with climate change. The objective of this research was to study the coping and adaptive capacity to climate change of local agricultural communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy and to analyze the success factors of adaptation to climate change. The research found five adaptive strategies leading to a resilient livelihood: (1 self-evaluation, (2 diversity dependency, (3 storage and reserve, (4 cooperation, and (5 mobility over space and time. These strategies help to reduce exposure and sensitivity, while increasing adaptive capacity to climate change with the aims of sustainability and adaptation for survival, and protecting natural resource bases for food and settlement security. Moderation, prudence, and self-immunity are critical success factors of adaptation measures, whereas local ecological knowledge with morality is a core enabling factor for adapting to climate change. These factors can be applied in community-based climate change adaptation in the National Adaptation Plan.

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

2011-01-01

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. - Research highlights: → Plant community changes can be used to estimate critical loads of nitrogen. → Climate change is decisive for future changes of geochemistry and plant communities. → Climate change cannot be ignored in estimates of critical loads. → The model ForSAFE-Veg was successfully used to set critical loads of nitrogen. - Plant community composition can be used in dynamic modelling to estimate critical loads of nitrogen deposition, provided the appropriate reference deposition, future climate and target plant communities are defined.

Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gero

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

Community functional responses to soil and climate at multiple spatial scales: when does intraspecific variation matter?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Siefert

Full Text Available Despite increasing evidence of the importance of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities, its role in community trait responses to environmental variation, particularly along broad-scale climatic gradients, is poorly understood. We analyzed functional trait variation among early-successional herbaceous plant communities (old fields across a 1200-km latitudinal extent in eastern North America, focusing on four traits: vegetative height, leaf area, specific leaf area (SLA, and leaf dry matter content (LDMC. We determined the contributions of species turnover and intraspecific variation to between-site functional dissimilarity at multiple spatial scales and community trait responses to edaphic and climatic factors. Among-site variation in community mean trait values and community trait responses to the environment were generated by a combination of species turnover and intraspecific variation, with species turnover making a greater contribution for all traits. The relative importance of intraspecific variation decreased with increasing geographic and environmental distance between sites for SLA and leaf area. Intraspecific variation was most important for responses of vegetative height and responses to edaphic compared to climatic factors. Individual species displayed strong trait responses to environmental factors in many cases, but these responses were highly variable among species and did not usually scale up to the community level. These findings provide new insights into the role of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities and the factors controlling its relative importance. The contribution of intraspecific variation to community trait responses was greatest at fine spatial scales and along edaphic gradients, while species turnover dominated at broad spatial scales and along climatic gradients.

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

Plant community responses to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kongstad, J.

2012-07-01

ecosystem more resilient to the climatic treatments than expected. We also found that the amount of flowering culms of D. flexuosa increased in response to increased CO{sub 2}, whereas the seed germination success decreased. The bryophyte biomass and the nitrogen content decreased in response to nitrogen addition. Even such apparently minor changes might, given time, affect the plant composition and thereby possibly also the major ecosystem processes. Further, we observed changes in the aboveground plant composition in response to the climate manipulations at the Mols site, where C. vulgaris was regenerating after a disturbance. Here a decrease in biomass of the pioneer stage was seen, when subjected to the drought treatment compared to warmed and control treatments. I therefore conclude, that the stage of the C. vulgaris population as well as the magnitude and frequency of disturbances determine the effects of future climate change on the plant community in heathland ecosystems. (Author)

Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students

Role of community based local institution for climate change adaptation in the Teesta riverine area of Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Rezaul Karim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change adaptation is one of the most crucial issues in developing countries like Bangladesh. The main objective was to understand the linkage of participation with Community Based Adaptation (CBA to climate change. Institutional framework following different types of conceptual theories (collective action, group, game and social learning theory was utilized to analyze the participatory process in local community level Village Disaster Mangement Committee (VDMC that works in collaboration with local government. Field level data was collected through interview and group discussion during 25 April to 30 May 2015 in the Teesta riverine area of northern Bangladesh. Results showed that flood and drought were the major climate change impacts in the study area, and various participatory tools were used for risk assessment and undertaking action plans to overcome the climate change challenges by the group VDMC. Participation in VDMC generated both relational and technical outcomes. The relational outcomes are the informal institutional changes through which local community adopt technological adaptation measures. Although, limitations like bargaining problem, free riding or conflict were found in collective decision making, but the initiation of local governance like VDMC has brought various institutional change in the communities in terms of adaptation practices. More than 80% VDMC and around 40–55% non-VDMC household respondents agreed that overall community based adaptation process was successful in the previous year. They believed that some innovative practices had been brought in the community through VDMC action for climate change adaptation. No doubt that the CBA has achieved good progress to achieve the government Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM strategy of climate change adaptation. But, there is still lack of coordination among local government, NGOs and civil partners in working together. Research related to socio

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

2015-01-01

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Change Orientations: The Effects of Organizational Climate on Principal, Teacher, and Community Transformation

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Page A.; Maika, Sean A.

2008-01-01

This research investigates the openness that teachers and principals have to change--specifically, the openness of the faculty to community pressure for change. Three dimensions of change are examined (teacher, principal, and community), as well as four aspects of organizational climate (institutional vulnerability, collegial leadership,…

How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Young, T.; Fuller, E.; Coleman, K.; Provost, M.; Pinsky, M. L.; St Martin, K.

2016-02-01

We know climate is changing and fish are moving in response to those changes. But we understand less about how harvesters are responding to these changes in fish distribution and the ramifications of those changes for fishing communities. Ecological and evolutionary theory suggests that organisms must move, adapt, or die in response to environmental changes, and a related frame may be relevant for human harvesters in the face of climate change. Furthermore, research suggests that there may be a portfolio effect: a wider diversity of catch may buffer harvesters from some effects of climate change. To get at these questions, we explored changes in fishing patterns among commercial fishing communities in the northeast US from 1997-2014 using NOAA-collected logbook data. We found that communities using more mobile gear (large trawl vessels) demonstrated a greater range of latitudinal shift than communities using any other gear. Latitudinal shift was also inversely related to species diversity of catch and port latitude in those communities: southern communities that caught few species shifted dramatically northward, and northern communities that caught many species did not demonstrate marked latitudinal shifts. Those communities that demonstrated larger latitudinal shifts also demonstrated smaller changes in catch composition than their more stationary counterparts. We also found that vessels are indeed leaving many, but not all, fisheries in this region. These results suggest that harvesters are moving, adapting, and leaving fisheries, and that there does appear to be a portfolio effect, with catch diversity mediating some of these responses. While these changes in fishing patterns cannot all be directly attributed to climate change per se, marine fishes in this region are shifting north rapidly, as is expected under climate change. This study provides a valuable test case for exploring the potential ramifications of climate change on coastal socio-ecological systems.

Challenges in the Management and Stewardship of Airborne Observational Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL)

Science.gov (United States)

Aquino, J.; Daniels, M. D.

2015-12-01

The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) funding for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of two research aircraft: the NSF/NCAR High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Gulfstream V and the NSF/NCAR Hercules C-130. A suite of in-situ and remote sensing airborne instruments housed at the EOL Research Aviation Facility (RAF) provide a basic set of measurements that are typically deployed on most airborne field campaigns. In addition, instruments to address more specific research requirements are provided by collaborating participants from universities, industry, NASA, NOAA or other agencies (referred to as Principal Investigator, or PI, instruments). At the 2014 AGU Fall Meeting, a poster (IN13B-3639) was presented outlining the components of Airborne Data Management included field phase data collection, formats, data archival and documentation, version control, storage practices, stewardship and obsolete data formats, and public data access. This talk will cover lessons learned, challenges associated with the above components, and current developments to address these challenges, including: tracking data workflows for aircraft instrumentation to facilitate identification, and correction, of gaps in these workflows; implementation of dataset versioning guidelines; and assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) to data and instrumentation to facilitate tracking data and facility use in publications.

Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

2005-01-01

Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

Decision-Makers As Messengers Of Climate Change Impacts And Ambassadors For Their Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Boudrias, M. A.; DeBenedict, C.; Bruce, L.; Estrada, M.; Hedge, N.; Silva-Send, N. J.

2016-12-01

Over the past several years there have been many coordinated efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging with a goal to reach solutions and build community resilience. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has employed a multidisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, social and learning sciences and effective communication strategies to create innovative resources and new approaches to climate change communication in order to engage audiences more effectively. We have interviewed over 140 key San Diego leaders and invited them to serve as ambassadors to the project by engaging them directly in the creation of a variety of innovative educational resources as well as serving as spokespersons for outreach activities. Our program has evolved from having only scientists, educators and community practitioners serve as presenters to strategically and deliberately engaging a mix of scientists, educators and decision makers as the conveyers of key messages. Our protocol for events includes preparing all speakers in advance, researching our audience, creating a script, immediate debriefs of each activity and a qualitative and quantitative assessment of each event. Two examples of this integrated approach will show how to engage decision-makers more deeply: (1) coastal flooding tour as a place-based activity and (2) impact videos that blend climate science, local personal stories and key messages from decision makers themselves. For climate change communication to be successful in the future, we will need creative and coordinated approaches.

Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2017-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Examination of Campus Climate for LGBTQ Community College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Garvey, Jason C.; Taylor, Jason L.; Rankin, Susan

2015-01-01

This study examines campus climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) undergraduate students at community colleges. Data for the study originates from Rankin, Blumenfeld, Weber, and Frazer's (2010) "State of Higher Education for LGBT People." We analyzed both quantitative data generated from closed-ended…

Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane McClymont Peace

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design: The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods: Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results: Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions: Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.

Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Peace, Diane McClymont; Myers, Erin

2012-01-01

Objectives Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies. PMID:22584509

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

2017-09-01

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.

2017-12-01

The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.

Interactive Correlation Analysis and Visualization of Climate Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Kwan-Liu [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

2016-09-21

The relationship between our ability to analyze and extract insights from visualization of climate model output and the capability of the available resources to make those visualizations has reached a crisis point. The large volume of data currently produced by climate models is overwhelming the current, decades-old visualization workflow. The traditional methods for visualizing climate output also have not kept pace with changes in the types of grids used, the number of variables involved, and the number of different simulations performed with a climate model or the feature-richness of high-resolution simulations. This project has developed new and faster methods for visualization in order to get the most knowledge out of the new generation of high-resolution climate models. While traditional climate images will continue to be useful, there is need for new approaches to visualization and analysis of climate data if we are to gain all the insights available in ultra-large data sets produced by high-resolution model output and ensemble integrations of climate models such as those produced for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Towards that end, we have developed new visualization techniques for performing correlation analysis. We have also introduced highly scalable, parallel rendering methods for visualizing large-scale 3D data. This project was done jointly with climate scientists and visualization researchers at Argonne National Laboratory and NCAR.

Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

Science.gov (United States)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

2012-12-01

The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key

Local governments and climate change: sustainable energy planning and implementation in small and medium sized communities

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Van Staden, Maryke; Musco, Francesco

2010-01-01

The focus of 'Local governments and climate change' is on how small and medium-sized communities in Europe are effectively responding to climate change, with a particular focus on different approaches...

Regional Scale/Regional Climate Model Development and Its Applications at Goddard

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W.; Qian, J.; Jia, Y.; Wetzel, P.; Chou, M.-D.; Wang, Y.; Lynn, B.

2000-01-01

A Regional Land-Atmosphere Climate Simulation System (RELACS) is being developed and implemented at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. One of the major goals of RELACS is to use a regional scale model (Penn State/NCAR MM5) with improved physical processes and in particular land-related processes, to understand the role of the land surface and its interaction with convection and radiation as well as the water/energy cycles in the Indo-China/South China Sea (SCS)/China, N. America and S. America region.

Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

1988-04-01

The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

Gaining trust from the scientific climate change community and increasing the visibility of their data

Science.gov (United States)

Pfeil, B.; Diepenbroek, M.

2017-12-01

Climate science has a major impact not just within the field, but also has immediate significant societal and economic implications. Scientists are well aware that their research results may be discussed by policy-makers and the media, sometimes with hostile intent from climate science deniers. Sustainable and scrutinized data management is the backbone for future scientific research and vital to maintain the integrity and reputation of the climate science community. In 2009 a lack of openness regarding data acquisition data treatment was one of the main factors in Climategate that severely damaged the community's image - and efficient data sharing and management can prevent this in the future. Data repositories can only operate effectively if they have the trust of their users: this includes both the data providers and data users. Both groups have to be assured that data treatment and quality control follows internationally agreed SOPs (standard operating procedures), is transparent, documented and traceable. Users want easy access to data and have to be assured that data is citable, allows reproducibility and can be used with confidence, which requires that both the data and accompanying metadata are of the highest possible quality. Building up trust from both communities takes time and requires collaboration, getting feedback from the community and addressing their needs. This presentation will show the basic needs and challenges for data repositories, and will illustrate how the marine carbon climate change community has successfully addressed these through the SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas) project. The project actively involves both data providers and users throughout the design and implementation of their infrastructures. Scientists are directly involved in quality control of the data and metadata, increasing trust in the data and encouraging international collaboration, which in turn increases the visibility of both the community and its data.

Linking Climate Change Science and Adaptation Policy at the Community Scale through Anticipatory Governance: A Review of Concepts with Application to Arizona Communities (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

White, D. D.; Quay, R.; Ferguson, D. B.; Buizer, J. L.; Guido, Z.; Chhetri, N.

2013-12-01

Scientific consensus and certainty varies regarding the link between climate change, specific natural hazards and extreme events, and local and regional impacts. Despite these uncertainties, it is necessary to apply the best available scientific knowledge to anticipate a range of possible futures, develop mitigation and adaptation strategies, and monitor changes to build resilience. While there is widespread recognition of the need to improve the linkages between climate science information and public policy for adaptation at the community scale, there are significant challenges to this goal. Many community outreach and engagement efforts, for instance, operate using a one-size-fits-all approach. Recent research has shown this to be problematic for local governments. Public policy occurs in a cycle that includes problem understanding, planning and policy approval, and implementation, with ongoing policy refinement through multiple such cycles. One promising approach to incorporating scientific knowledge with uncertainty into public policy is an anticipatory governance approach. Anticipatory governance employs a continual cycle of anticipation (understanding), planning, monitoring, and adaptation (policy choice and implementation). The types of information needed in each of these phases will be different given the nature of each activity and the unique needs of each community. It is highly unlikely that all local governments will be in the same phase of climate adaptation with the same unique needs at the same time and thus a uniform approach to providing scientific information will only be effective for a discrete group of communities at any given point in time. A key concept for the effective integration of scientific information into public discourse is that such information must be salient, credible, and legitimate. Assuming a scientific institution has established credibility with engaged communities, maximizing the effectiveness of climate science requires

Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland.

Science.gov (United States)

Weedon, James T; Kowalchuk, George A; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F M; van Bodegom, Peter M

2017-01-01

The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50-100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12-15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7-11%) > climate treatment (4-9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates-evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bala, G; Mirin, A

2007-01-19

We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.

2016-01-01

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Impacts of climatic changes on small mammal communities in the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To evaluate the impact of climatic change on rodent sahelian communities, we analysed the contents of over 2500 barn owl (Tyto alba) pellets collected along the Senegal river between 1989 and 2003, and from the Ferlo sahelian area in 2003. These results are compared with data from the 1970s and 1980s in the same ...

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aurélien Royer

Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød.

How does Interactive Chemistry Influence the Representation of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in a Climate Model?

Science.gov (United States)

Haase, S.; Matthes, K. B.

2017-12-01

Changes in stratospheric ozone can trigger tropospheric circulation changes. In the Southern hemisphere (SH), the observed shift of the Southern Annular Mode was attributed to the observed trend in lower stratospheric ozone. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), a recent study showed that extremely low stratospheric ozone conditions during spring produce robust anomalies in the troposphere (zonal wind, temperature and precipitation). This could only be reproduced in a coupled chemistry climate model indicating that chemical-dynamical feedbacks are also important on the NH. To further investigate the importance of interactive chemistry for surface climate, we conducted a set of experiments using NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) as the atmosphere component. WACCM contains a fully interactive stratospheric chemistry module in its standard configuration. It also allows for an alternative configuration, referred to as SC-WACCM, in which the chemistry (O3, NO, O, O2, CO2 and chemical and shortwave heating rates) is specified as a 2D field in the radiation code. A comparison of the interactive vs. the specified chemistry version enables us to evaluate the relative importance of interactive chemistry by systematically inhibiting the feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics. To diminish the effect of temporal interpolation when prescribing ozone, we use daily resolved zonal mean ozone fields for the specified chemistry run. Here, we investigate the differences in stratosphere-troposphere coupling between the interactive and specified chemistry simulations for the mainly chemically driven SH as well as for the mainly dynamically driven NH. We will especially consider years that are characterized by extremely low stratospheric ozone on the one hand and by large dynamical disturbances, i.e. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, on the other hand.

Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

Science.gov (United States)

García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

2017-04-01

In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

Perceptions of climate change by highland communities in the Nepal Himalaya

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Uprety, Y.; Shrestha, U. B.; Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Shrestha, S.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Thakali, A.; Cockfield, G.; Asselin, H.

2017-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 7 (2017), s. 649-661 ISSN 1756-5529 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-10280S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : climate change * local communities * traditional knowledge Subject RIV: EF - Botanics OBOR OECD: Plant sciences, botany Impact factor: 2.051, year: 2016

The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

2015-12-01

Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

Best Practices in Weathering Climate Risks: Advancing Corporate and Community Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.; Winkelman, S.

2012-12-01

As the annual costs of severe weather events in the US grow into the billions of dollars, companies and communities are examining how best to plan ahead to protect their assets and bolster their bottom line. The Center for Clean Air Policy's Weathering Climate Risks program aims to help cities and companies enhance resilience to the economic impacts of severe weather and a changing climate. This presentation will highlight three communication techniques aimed at different types of audiences such as businesses, policymakers, the media, and society. First, we find that although planning for natural hazards now saves money later, stakeholders must fi¬nd their own self-interest if they are going to engage in a solution. Thus we research best practices and hold informational, off-the-record interviews to better understand the different stakeholders' perspectives, key concerns, and issues surrounding adaptation, resilience, and/or hazard mitigation. Diverse stakeholders find it attractive when a solution has multiple co-benefits such as climate resilience, greenhouse gas reduction, reduced costs, and social benefits. Second, we use off-the-record dialogues emphasizing candid public-private discussion to promote collaborative problem solving. Our high-level workshops typically consist of 30-40 scientists, companies, communities, and policymakers. We begin with presenting background material, such as geographic information systems (GIS) maps. Then we move to informal conservation. Topics include ideas such as "Ask the Climate Question": How will infrastructure, land development, and investment decisions affect GHG emissions and resilience to climate change impacts? We find these dialogues help stakeholders share their perspectives and advance public-private collaboration on climate resilience to protect critical urban infrastructure, ensure business continuity, and increase extreme weather resilience. Third, we find that communication to the general public must capture

Climate responsive and safe earthquake construction: a community building a school

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hari Darshan

2011-10-01

Full Text Available This article outlines environment friendly features, climate responsive features and construction features of a prototype school building constructed using green building technology. The school building has other additional features such as earthquake resistant construction, use of local materials and local technology. The construction process not only establishes community ownership, but also facilitates dissemination of the technology to the communities. Schools are effective media for raising awareness, disseminating technology and up-scaling the innovative approach. The approach is cost effective and sustainable for long-term application of green building technology. Furthermore, this paper emphasizes that such construction technology will be instrumental to build culture of safety in communities and reduce disaster risk.

The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

Science.gov (United States)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

2015-04-01

collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

Phenological Characterization of Desert Sky Island Vegetation Communities with Remotely Sensed and Climate Time Series Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stuart E. Marsh

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.

Innovative Strategies for Building Community Resilience: Lessons from the Frontlines of Climate Change Capacity-Building

Science.gov (United States)

Abrash Walton, A.

2017-12-01

There is broad scientific consensus that climate change is occurring; however, there is limited implementation of measures to create resilient local communities (Abrash Walton, Simpson, Rhoades, & Daniels, 2016; Adger, Arnell, & Tompkins, 2005; Glavovic & Smith, 2014; Moser & Ekstrom, 2010; Picketts, Déry, & Curry, 2014). Communities that are considered climate leaders in the United States may have adopted climate change plans, yet few have actually implemented the policies, projects and recommendations in those plans. A range of innovative, education strategies have proven effective in building the capacity of local decision makers to strengthen community resilience. This presentation draws on the results of two years of original research regarding the information and support local decision makers require for effective action. Findings are based on information from four datasets, with more than 600 respondents from 48 U.S. states and 19 other countries working on local adaptation in a range of capacities. These research results can inform priority setting for public policy, budget setting, and action as well as private sector funding and investment. The presentation will focus, in particular, on methods and results of a pioneering Facilitated Community of Practice model (FCoP) for building climate preparedness and community resilience capacity, among local-level decision makers. The FCoP process includes group formation and shared capacity building experience. The process can also support collective objective setting and creation of structures and processes for ongoing sustainable collaboration. Results from two FCoPs - one fully online and the other hybrid - suggest that participants viewed the interpersonal and technical assistance elements of the FCoP as highly valuable. These findings suggest that there is an important need for facilitated networking and other relational aspects of building capacity among those advancing resilience at the local level.

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warren Pearce

Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, J.; Miller, N.L.

2011-01-10

To improve simulations of regional-scale snow processes and related cold-season hydroclimate, the Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was coupled with the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). CLM3 physically describes the mass and heat transfer within the snowpack using five snow layers that include liquid water and solid ice. The coupled MM5–CLM3 model performance was evaluated for the snowmelt season in the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwestern United States using gridded temperature and precipitation observations, along with station observations. The results from MM5–CLM3 show a significant improvement in the SWE simulation, which has been underestimated in the original version of MM5 coupled with the Noah land-surface model. One important cause for the underestimated SWE in Noah is its unrealistic land-surface structure configuration where vegetation, snow and the topsoil layer are blended when snow is present. This study demonstrates the importance of the sheltering effects of the forest canopy on snow surface energy budgets, which is included in CLM3. Such effects are further seen in the simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in regional weather and climate models such as MM5. In addition, the snow-season surface albedo overestimated by MM5–Noah is now more accurately predicted by MM5–CLM3 using a more realistic albedo algorithm that intensifies the solar radiation absorption on the land surface, reducing the strong near-surface cold bias in MM5–Noah. The cold bias is further alleviated due to a slower snowmelt rate in MM5–CLM3 during the early snowmelt stage, which is closer to observations than the comparable components of MM5–Noah. In addition, the over-predicted precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as shown in MM5–Noah is significantly decreased in MM5 CLM3 due to the lower evaporation resulting from the

Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

2015-01-01

The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

Energy and climate protection management, the key to higher energy efficiency in communities; Energie- und Klimaschutzmanagement. Der Schluessel zu mehr Energieeffizienz in Kommunen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-15

The brochure explains the dena energy and climate protection management concepts and presents tools for long-term reduction of energy consumption in communities. It presents valuable information for better organization of internal processes in community administrations and for the management of energy efficiency measures. The dena energy and climate protection management concept is developed in cooperation with model communities of different sizes since 2010. All interested communities can use this brochure as a guide for initiating effective climate protection measures.

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

Science.gov (United States)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2015-04-01

Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs This architecture will also be used for the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project. - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qassem Y. Tarawneh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is an important factor for sustainable water resource management in the arid and semi-arid countries. In this study, future trends of temperature and rainfall were assessed for several regions in Saudi Arabia. The linear and Mann–Kendall analyses showed an increase of temperature in all regions and decrease of rainfall in many regions. Following trend analysis, the outputs of the NCAR Community Climate System Model were obtained for three emission scenarios (high: representative concentration pathways RCP8.5; high medium: RCP6; and low: RCP2.6 for the assessment periods of 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively, and compared with the average values from the reference period (1986–2005. In all emission scenarios, temperature showed an increase from 1986 to 2005 in all regions. For RCP8.5, increase of temperature are in the ranges of 0.8–1.6 °C, 0.9–2.7 °C and 0.7–4.1 °C during 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively. However, rainfall showed variable patterns with respect to emission scenarios and assessment periods. In most regions, the RCP6 showed decrease in rainfall from the reference period while the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 showed variable patterns. The increase of temperature and variable pattern of rainfall may increase uncertainty in developing sustainable water resource management strategies.

Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jablonowski, Christiane [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2015-12-14

The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

Perceptions of climate change by highland communities in the Nepal Himalaya

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Uprety, Y.; Shrestha, U. B.; Rokaya, Maan Bahadur; Shrestha, S.; Chaudhary, R. P.; Thakali, A.; Cockfield, G.; Asselin, H.

2017-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 7 (2017), s. 649-661 ISSN 1756-5529 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate change * local communities * Himalaya * Nepal * traditional knowledge Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 2.051, year: 2016

Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, Daniel

2015-01-01

In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [de

An Investigation of Students' Perceptions about Democratic School Climate and Sense of Community in School

Science.gov (United States)

Karakus, Memet

2017-01-01

This study aims to investigate students' perceptions about democratic school climate and sense of community in school. In line with this purpose, it aims to find answers to the following questions: How democratic do students find the school climate? What is students' sense of belonging level at school? What is the academic success level of…

The Climate-G testbed: towards a large scale data sharing environment for climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Aloisio, G.; Fiore, S.; Denvil, S.; Petitdidier, M.; Fox, P.; Schwichtenberg, H.; Blower, J.; Barbera, R.

2009-04-01

The Climate-G testbed provides an experimental large scale data environment for climate change addressing challenging data and metadata management issues. The main scope of Climate-G is to allow scientists to carry out geographical and cross-institutional climate data discovery, access, visualization and sharing. Climate-G is a multidisciplinary collaboration involving both climate and computer scientists and it currently involves several partners such as: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Fraunhofer Institut für Algorithmen und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen (SCAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Reading, University of Catania and University of Salento. To perform distributed metadata search and discovery, we adopted a CMCC metadata solution (which provides a high level of scalability, transparency, fault tolerance and autonomy) leveraging both on P2P and grid technologies (GRelC Data Access and Integration Service). Moreover, data are available through OPeNDAP/THREDDS services, Live Access Server as well as the OGC compliant Web Map Service and they can be downloaded, visualized, accessed into the proposed environment through the Climate-G Data Distribution Centre (DDC), the web gateway to the Climate-G digital library. The DDC is a data-grid portal allowing users to easily, securely and transparently perform search/discovery, metadata management, data access, data visualization, etc. Godiva2 (integrated into the DDC) displays 2D maps (and animations) and also exports maps for display on the Google Earth virtual globe. Presently, Climate-G publishes (through the DDC) about 2TB of data related to the ENSEMBLES project (also including distributed replicas of data) as well as to the IPCC AR4. The main results of the proposed work are: wide data access/sharing environment for climate change; P2P/grid metadata approach; production-level Climate-G DDC; high quality tools for

Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative (CCCOI)--A Gulf of Mexico Education Partnership

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, S. H.; Stone, D.; Schultz, T.; LeBlanc, T.; Miller-Way, T.; Estrada, P.

2012-12-01

This five-year, Gulf of Mexico regional collaborative is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Office of Education and represents a successful grant submitted by the FL Aquarium as a member of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA). This climate change effort focuses on enhanced content knowledge and the manner in which personal actions and behaviors contribute to sustainability and stewardship. Diverse audiences—represented by visitors at the informal centers listed above—have been and are involved in the following activities: social networking via responses to climate change surveys; an "ocean and climate change defender" computer game, specifically designed for this project; an average of 10 annual outreach events implemented by these facilities at community festivals; climate change lectures provided to family audiences; and professional development workshops for informal and formal educators. This presentation will provide opportunities and challenges encountered during the first two years of implementation. This regional effort is also aligned with both the Ocean Literacy: Essential Principles and the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles. Additional partners include: Normandeau Associates, Conservation Enterprises, Unlimited, and Mindclay Creative.

Grassland communities in the USA and expected trends associated with climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Paul Belesky

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Grasslands, including managed grazinglands, represent one of the largest ecosystems on the planet. Managed grazinglands in particular tend to occupy marginal climatic and edaphic resource zones, thus exacerbating responses in net primary productivity relative to changes in system resources, including anthropogenic factors. Climate dynamism, as evident from the fossil record, appears to be a putative feature of our planet. Recent global trends in temperature and precipitation patterns seem to differ from long-term patterns and have been associated with human activities linked with increased greenhouse gas emissions; specifically CO2. Thus grasslands, with their diverse floristic components, and interaction with and dependence upon herbivores, have a remarkable ability to persist and sustain productivity in response to changing resource conditions. This resistance and resilience to change, including uncertain long-term weather conditions, establishes managed grasslands as an important means of protecting food security. We review responses of grassland communities across regions of the USA and consider the responses in productivity and system function with respect to climatic variation. Research is needed to identify plant resources and management technologies that strengthen our ability to capitalize upon physiological and anatomical features prevalent in grassland communities associated with varying growing conditions.

Communities of practice in support of collaborative multi-disciplinary learning and action in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Heimlich, J. E.; Stylinski, C.; Palmquist, S.; Wasserman, D.

2017-12-01

Collaborative efforts reaching across interdisciplinary boundaries to address controversial issues such as climate change present significant complexities, including developing shared language, agreeing on common outcomes, and even establishing habits of regular dialogue. Such collaborative efforts should include museums, aquariums, zoos, parks, and youth groups as each of these informal education institutions provides a critical avenue for supporting learning about and responding to climate change. The community of practice framework offers a potential effective approach to support learning and action of diverse groups with a shared interest. Our study applied this framework to the NSF-funded Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Education (MADE-CLEAR) project, facilitating informal educators across these two states to advance their climate change education practices, and could provide insight for a building a citywide multi-sector collaborative effort. We found strategies that center on the process of group evolution; support different perspectives, levels of participation, and community spaces; focus on value as defined by members; and balance familiarity and fun produced a dynamic and functional community with a shared practice where none had existed before. Also important was expanding the community-of-practice focus on relationship building to include structured professional development and spin-off opportunities for small-group team-based endeavors. Our findings suggest that this collaborative professional learning approach is well suited to diverse groups seeking creative solutions to complex and even divisive challenges.

Profiling climate change vulnerability of forest indigenous communities in the Congo Basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nkem, J.N.; Somorin, O.A.; Jum, C.; Idinoba, M.E.; Bele, Y.M.; Sonwa, D.J.

2013-01-01

The livelihood strategies of indigenous communities in the Congo Basin are inseparable from the forests, following their use of forest ecosystem goods and services (FEGS). Climate change is expected to exert impacts on the forest and its ability to provide FEGS. Thus, human livelihoods that depend

Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

Science.gov (United States)

Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

2017-12-01

Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

2014-12-01

The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

Challenges of Climate Change: Resilience Efforts in Rural Communities of Kaliwlingi Village based on Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Tangguh (PKPT) Program

OpenAIRE

Mustovia Azahro; Angga Dwisapta Ardi

2017-01-01

Kaliwlingi Village in Brebes City has experienced climate change impacts such as tidal flood and land abrasion. The climate change causes the dynamics of the coast and sea levels dramatically and fosters the coastal communities to have adaptation strategies. This paper aims to identify how the community of Kaliwlingi Village adapts to the climate change that affects to a social economic condition of the inhabitants. The study used qualitative method by interpreting data taken from Pengembanga...

The Relationship between Campus Climate and the Teaching of Critical Thinking Skills in Community College Classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Although critical thinking skills are important for all citizens participating in a democratic society, many community college students appear to lack these skills. This study addressed the apparent lack of research relating critical thinking instruction to campus climate. Critical thinking theory and Moos's organizational climate theory served as…

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A.; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

2011-01-01

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg -1 dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO 2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO 2 assimilation rate (A sat ) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A sat in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. - Highlights: → We exposed constructed grassland communities to Zn addition in a current and a future climate. → Zn uptake did not differ between the climates. → Although A sat was more responsive to Zn in future climate, climate did not alter biomass responses. → If this response remains on the long term, climate change will not alter sensitivity. - This study is the first to examine plant responses to a heavy metal (Zn) in a changing climate, and shows that the tolerance of plants to Zn stress will not be altered in a future climate.

An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

Science.gov (United States)

Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

2003-12-01

Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

Climate Effects on Plant Range Distributions and Community Structure of Pacific Northwest Prairies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bridgham, Scott D. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States); Johnson, Bart [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States)

2013-09-26

was negatively impacted by increased temperatures, but for species planted north of their current range, increased temperature was neutral. However, for surviving plants climate treatments and site-specific factors (e.g., nutrient availability) were the strongest predictors of plant growth and seed set. When recruitment and plant growth are considered together, increased temperatures are negative within a species current range but beyond this range they become positive. Germination was the most critical stage for plant response across all sites and climate treatments. Our results underscore the importance of including plant vital rates into models that are examining climate change effects on plant ranges. Warming altered plant community composition, decreased diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities over time becoming more like ambient communities further south. In particular, warming increased the cover of annual introduced species, suggesting that the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing invasion by this plant functional group in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south is at least in part due to climate. Our results suggest that with the projected increase in drought severity with climate change, Pacific Northwest prairies may face an increase of invasion by annuals, similar to what has been observed in California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem function. Warming generally increased nutrient availability and plant productivity across all sites. The seasonality of soil respiration responses to heating were strongly dependent on the Mediterranean climate gradient in the PNW, with heating responses being generally positive during periods of adequate soil moisture and becoming neutral to negative during periods of low soil moisture. The asynchrony between temperature and precipitation may make soils less sensitive to warming. Precipitation

Approaches to 30% Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas-Rees, S.; Beal, D.; Martin, E.; Fonorow, K.

2013-03-01

BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the BA Program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. The scope of this report is to demonstrate achievement of these goals though the documentation of production-scale homes built cost-effectively at the community scale, and modeled to reduce whole-house energy use by 30% in the Hot Humid climate region. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

Modeling dynamics of tundra plant communities on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia, in response to climate change and grazing pressure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Q; Epstein, H E; Frost, G V; Walker, D A; Forbes, B C

2011-01-01

Understanding the responses of the arctic tundra biome to a changing climate requires knowledge of the complex interactions among the climate, soils and biological system. This study investigates the individual and interaction effects of climate change and reindeer grazing across a variety of climate zones and soil texture types on tundra vegetation community dynamics using an arctic vegetation model that incorporates the reindeer diet, where grazing is a function of both foliar nitrogen concentration and reindeer forage preference. We found that grazing is important, in addition to the latitudinal climate gradient, in controlling tundra plant community composition, explaining about 13% of the total variance in model simulations for all arctic tundra subzones. The decrease in biomass of lichen, deciduous shrub and graminoid plant functional types caused by grazing is potentially dampened by climate warming. Moss biomass had a nonlinear response to increased grazing intensity, and such responses were stronger when warming was present. Our results suggest that evergreen shrubs may benefit from increased grazing intensity due to their low palatability, yet a growth rate sensitivity analysis suggests that changes in nutrient uptake rates may result in different shrub responses to grazing pressure. Heavy grazing caused plant communities to shift from shrub tundra toward moss, graminoid-dominated tundra in subzones C and D when evergreen shrub growth rates were decreased in the model. The response of moss, lichen and forbs to warming varied across the different subzones. Initial vegetation responses to climate change during transient warming are different from the long term equilibrium responses due to shifts in the controlling mechanisms (nutrient limitation versus competition) within tundra plant communities.

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rory L Hodd

Full Text Available Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1 oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2 species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3 species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need

PLC based control system and maintenance activities at NCAR, Bilaspur

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dewangan, Jaidev; Trivedi, T.; Patel, Shiv P.; Malik, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Gupta, Santosh Kumar; Bajpai, P.K.

2015-01-01

A 3.0 MV high current low energy Pelletron Accelerator facility (Model 9SDH-4, NEC, USA) with TORUIS (ion source for H + and He 2+ beam current H + ion ∼ 50μA @ 6 MeV, He 2+ at ∼ 10μA) and SNICS-II ion source for heavy ions has been commissioned as 'National Centre for Accelerator Based Research' in the Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya. In this paper, we detail out the control system developed and implemented at NCAR. The basic idea of controlling the machine is by providing the output signal through PLC to ACPC of accelerator using user interface points provided by the manufacturer. The PLC based system generates output signal once it receives the feedback signals from search and secure switches, door lock switches and scram switches interlocked with PLC. The output is controlled by ladder logic and is activated only when all the radiation monitors are in healthy state and outside radiations monitor having low radiation level. The details of control system and maintenance activities will be discussed in the paper

Perceptions of Campus Climate, Academic Efficacy and Academic Success among Community College Students: An Ethnic Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Edman, Jeanne L.; Brazil, Brad

2009-01-01

The present study examined whether there are ethnic differences in perceptions of campus climate, social support, and academic efficacy among community college students, and whether student perceptions were associated with academic success. A total of 475 community college students completed a questionnaire that measured students' perceptions of…

Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

2012-04-01

One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Impact relevance and usability of high resolution climate modeling and data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnott, James C. [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)

2016-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Impact Relevance and Usability of High-Resolution Climate Modeling and Datasets,” on August 2-7, 2015 in Aspen, CO. Kate Calvin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Andrew Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) and Jean-François Lamarque (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The meeting included the participation of 29 scientists for a total of 145 participant days. Following the workshop, workshop co-chairs authored a meeting report published in Eos on April 27, 2016. Insights from the workshop directly contributed to the formation of a new DOE-supported project co-led by workshop co-chair Andy Jones. A subset of meeting participants continue to work on a publication on institutional innovations that can support the usability of high resolution modeling, among other sources of climate information.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

The capacity to adapt?: communities in a changing climate, environment, and economy on the northern Andaman coast of Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan J. Bennett

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The health and productivity of marine ecosystems, habitats, and fisheries are deteriorating on the Andaman coast of Thailand. Because of their high dependence on natural resources and proximity to the ocean, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to climate-induced changes in the marine environment. These communities must also adapt to the impacts of management interventions and conservation initiatives, including marine protected areas, which have livelihood implications. Further, communities on the Andaman coast are also experiencing a range of new economic opportunities associated in particular with tourism and agriculture. These complex and ongoing changes require integrated assessment of, and deliberate planning to increase, the adaptive capacity of communities so that they may respond to: (1 environmental degradation and fisheries declines through effective management interventions or conservation initiatives, (2 new economic opportunities to reduce dependence on fisheries, and (3 the increasing impacts of climate change. Our results are from a mixed methods study, which used surveys and interviews to examine multiple dimensions of the adaptive capacity of seven island communities near marine protected areas on the Andaman coast of Thailand. Results show that communities had low adaptive capacity with respect to environmental degradation and fisheries declines, and to management and conservation interventions, as well as uneven levels of adaptive capacity to economic opportunities. Though communities and households were experiencing the impacts of climate change, especially storm events, changing seasons and weather patterns, and erosion, they were reacting to these changes with limited knowledge of climate change per se. We recommend interventions, in the form of policies, programs, and actions, at multiple scales for increasing the adaptive capacity of Thailand's coastal communities to change. The analytical and methodological

Creating a Partnering Community Aimed to Foster Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Rutherford, D.; McNeal, K. S.; Smith, R.; Hare, D.; Nair, U. S.

2011-12-01

The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) is a part of the Climate Change Education Program supported by the National Science Foundation (http://CLiPSE-project.org). The established CLiPSE partnership is dedicated to improving climate literacy in the southeast through crafting a shared vision and strategic plan among stakeholders that promotes scientific formal and informal educational resources, materials and programs; a diverse network of key partnering organizations throughout the Southeastern United States (SE US); and effective public dialogues that address diverse learners and audiences and supports learning of climate, climate change, and its relevance upon human and environmental systems. The CLiPSE project has been successful in creating partnerships with more than fifty key stakeholders that stem from a few key publics such as agriculture, education, leisure, religious organizations, and culturally diverse communities. These key publics in the SE US frequently consist of individuals that place great trust in local, private efforts, and CLiPSE has realized the importance of the role of the partnering organizations in providing information through a trusted source. A second unique characteristic of the SE US is the predominately conservative and Protestant citizenry in the region. Working with and through these communities enhances climate change education outreach to this citizenry. The CLiPSE project rests on solid climate science and learning science research in order to formulate an effective plan with desired learning outcomes of critical thinking and civil conversation through effective communication strategies. This paper will present the CLiPSE model in reaching the key publics that traditionally hold ideologies that are traditionally perceived as incompatible with climate change science. We will present the strategies utilized to bring together experts and researchers in climate science, learning science, and social science with

Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch, Jaime; Fernández-Beaskoetxea, Saioa; Garner, Trenton W J; Carrascal, Luis María

2018-02-15

Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the Community Climate System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.

2017-12-01

Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models. They provide a way to represent model uncertainty through representing the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes, and have been shown to have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state for medium- and extended-range forecasts. There is increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes can improve the bias in mean and variability, e.g. by introducing a noise-induced drift (nonlinear rectification), and by changing the residence time and structure of flow regimes. We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. SPPT results in a significant improvement in the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. We use a Linear Inverse Modelling framework to gain insight into the mechanisms by which SPPT has improved ENSO-variability.

Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Schneider

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP and export production (EP of particulate organic carbon (POC. Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation. Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006 with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

The Brazilian freshwater wetscape: Changes in tree community diversity and composition on climatic and geographic gradients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Wittmann

Full Text Available Wetlands harbor an important compliment of regional plant diversity, but in many regions data on wetland diversity and composition is still lacking, thus hindering our understanding of the processes that control it. While patterns of broad-scale terrestrial diversity and composition typically correlate with contemporary climate it is not clear to what extent patterns in wetlands are complimentary, or conflicting. To elucidate this, we consolidate data from wetland forest inventories in Brazil and examine patterns of diversity and composition along temperature and rainfall gradients spanning five biomes. We collated 196 floristic inventories covering an area >220 ha and including >260,000 woody individuals. We detected a total of 2,453 tree species, with the Amazon alone accounting for nearly half. Compositional patterns indicated differences in freshwater wetland floras among Brazilian biomes, although biomes with drier, more seasonal climates tended to have a larger proportion of more widely distributed species. Maximal alpha diversity increased with annual temperature, rainfall, and decreasing seasonality, patterns broadly consistent with upland vegetation communities. However, alpha diversity-climate relationships were only revealed at higher diversity values associated with the uppermost quantiles, and in most sites diversity varied irrespective of climate. Likewise, mean biome-level differences in alpha-diversity were unexpectedly modest, even in comparisons of savanna-area wetlands to those of nearby forested regions. We describe attenuated wetland climate-diversity relationships as a shifting balance of local and regional effects on species recruitment. Locally, excessive waterlogging strongly filters species able to colonize from regional pools. On the other hand, increased water availability can accommodate a rich community of drought-sensitive immigrant species that are able to track buffered wetland microclimates. We argue that

NOAA's Coral Reef Conservation Program: 2016 projects to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In 2016 the following projects will take place to assess coral resilence and the resilence of communities to climate change: Climate and resilience-based...

Climatic and Environmental Changes Affecting Communities in Atlantic Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liette Vasseur

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Small rural coastal communities located in Atlantic Canada are vulnerable to the effects of climate and environmental changes. Major storms have impounded the coastline, causing much physical damage and affecting the socioeconomics of these communities that are composed of an aging population. The current study relays findings based on interviews completed in 2011–2012, following the 2010 winter storms in Atlantic Canada. It portrays the physical and social–ecological impacts affecting 10 coastal communities located in the provinces of Québec, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island. Semi-structured interviews held in these provinces are the basis for the contributions of this research. The findings reveal physical changes related to coastal erosion from high-wave impacts and storm surge causing flooding of the coastal zone. Also considered are strategies preferred and actually implemented by residents, such as building of protection walls, although undesirable. Due to funding constraints, however, many of these large-scale flood protection projects are not possible without governmental support. Instead, it is suggested that development be controlled and some respondents in this study upheld that relocation be used to alleviate the situation. Finally, more work is required to improve emergency planning. Better concerted short- and long-term responses need to be coordinated by local authorities and higher up in the government in order to ensure the sustainability of these coastal communities.

Responses of redwood soil microbial community structure and N transformations to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Damon C. Bradbury; Mary K. Firestone

2012-01-01

Soil microorganisms perform critical ecosystem functions, including decomposition, nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification. Soil temperature and water availability can be critical determinants of the rates of these processes as well as microbial community composition and structure. This research examined how changes in climate affect bacterial and fungal...

Interoperable Access to NCAR Research Data Archive Collections

Science.gov (United States)

Schuster, D.; Ji, Z.; Worley, S. J.; Manross, K.

2014-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA) provides free access to 600+ observational and gridded dataset collections. The RDA is designed to support atmospheric and related sciences research, updated frequently where datasets have ongoing production, and serves data to 10,000 unique users annually. The traditional data access options include web-based direct archive file downloads, user selected data subsets and format conversions produced by server-side computations, and client and cURL-based APIs for routine scripted data retrieval. To enhance user experience and utility, the RDA now also offers THREDDS Data Server (TDS) access for many highly valued dataset collections. TDS offered datasets are presented as aggregations, enabling users to access an entire dataset collection, that can be comprised of 1000's of files, through a single virtual file. The OPeNDAP protocol, supported by the TDS, allows compatible tools to open and access these virtual files remotely, and make the native data file format transparent to the end user. The combined functionality (TDS/OPeNDAP) gives users the ability to browse, select, visualize, and download data from a complete dataset collection without having to transfer archive files to a local host. This presentation will review the TDS basics and describe the specific TDS implementation on the RDA's diverse archive of GRIB-1, GRIB-2, and gridded NetCDF formatted dataset collections. Potential future TDS implementation on in-situ observational dataset collections will be discussed. Illustrative sample cases will be used to highlight the end users benefits from this interoperable data access to the RDA.

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.

Leveraging federal science data and tools to help communities & business build climate resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Herring, D.

2016-12-01

Decision-makers in every sector and region of the United States are seeking actionable science-based information to help them understand and manage their climate-related risks. Translating data, tools and information from the domain of climate science to the domains of municipal, social, and economic decision-making raises complex questions—e.g., how to communicate causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to show projections of plausible future climate scenarios; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities facing communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans. These are the types of challenges being addressed by a public-private partnership of federal agencies, academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and private businesses that are contributing to the development of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov), a new website designed to help people build resilience to extreme events caused by both natural climate variability and long-term climate change. The site's Climate Explorer is designed to help people understand potential climate conditions over the course of this century. It offers easy access to downloadable maps, graphs, and data tables of observed and projected temperature, precipitation and other decision-relevant climate variables dating back to 1950 and out to 2100. Of course, climate change is only one of many variables affecting decisions about the future so the Toolkit also ties climate information to a wide range of other relevant tools and information to help users to explore their vulnerabilities and risks. In this session, we will describe recent enhancements to the Toolkit, lessons learned from user engagements, and evidence that our approach of coupling scientific information with actionable decision-making processes is helping Americans build resilience to climate-related impacts.

Challenges of Climate Change: Resilience Efforts in Rural Communities of Kaliwlingi Village based on Pengembangan Kawasan Pesisir Tangguh (PKPT Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustovia Azahro

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Kaliwlingi Village in Brebes City has experienced climate change impacts such as tidal flood and land abrasion. The climate change causes the dynamics of the coast and sea levels dramatically and fosters the coastal communities to have adaptation strategies. This paper aims to identify how the community of Kaliwlingi Village adapts to the climate change that affects to a social economic condition of the inhabitants. The study used qualitative method by interpreting data taken from PengembanganKawasanPesisirTangguh (PKPT program, interviews, and observations.The study highlights that PKPT program has a significant impact, especially regarding disaster mitigation. PKPT program is successful in collecting the common rules of the community to become social capital accommodated in the local institution. Furthermore, the PKPT Program is also fostering the local economy.

Comparison of post-fire seedling establishment between scrub communities in mediterranean and non-mediterranean climate ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Carrington, M.E.; Keeley, J.E.

1999-01-01

I Both fire regimes and the conditions under which fires occur vary widely. Abiotic conditions (such as climate) in combination with fire season, frequency and intensity could influence vegetation responses to fire. A variety of adaptations facilitate post-fire recruitment in mediterranean climate ecosystems, but responses of other communities are less well known. We evaluated the importance of climate by comparing sites with mediterranean and subtropical climates. 2 We used paired burned and mature sites in chamise chaparral, mixed chaparral and coastal sage scrub (California), and rosemary scrub, sand pine scrub and sand-hill (Florida), to test whether (i) patterns of pre-fire and post-fire seedling recruitment are more similar between communities within a region than between regions, and (ii) post-fire stimulation of seedling establishment is greater in regions with marked fire-induced contrasts in abiotic site characteristics. 3 Post-fire seedling densities were more similar among sites within climatic regions than between regions. Both seedling densities and proportions of species represented by seedlings after fires were generally higher in California. 4 The only site characteristic showing a pre-fire-post-fire contrast was percentage open canopy, and the effect was greater in California than in Florida. Soil properties were unaffected by fire. 5 Mediterranean climate ecosystems in other regions have nutrient-poor soils similar to our subtropical Florida sites, but show post-fire seedling recruitment patterns more similar to the nutrient-rich sites in California. Climate therefore appears to play a more major role than soil characteristics.

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arnott, James [AGCI

2015-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

Perceptions of Obvious and Disruptive Climate Change: Community-Based Risk Assessment for Two Native Villages in Alaska

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Rosales

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This work operationalizes the determinants of climate change risk, exposure and vulnerability, through the perceptions held by Native hunters, fishers, and gatherers in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska. Informed by their skill, experience, and the traditional knowledge of their elders, hunters, fishers, and gatherers in these communities are astute observers of their environment and environmental change. A questionnaire is used to sort and rank their perceptions of the most obvious and disruptive elements of climate change as representations of exposure and vulnerability, respectively. Results represent the relative strength and significance of those perceptions of environmental change. In addition to other changes, storms are among the most obvious and disruptive impacts of climate change to respondents in both communities, while changes to sea ice tend to be more disruptive in Savoonga, a more ice-obligate culture, than Shaktoolik. Changes on the tundra are more obvious in Shaktoolik, but is the least disruptive category of change in both villages. Changes along the coast were both obvious and disruptive, albeit more so in Shaktoolik than Savoonga. The findings suggest that traditional ecological knowledge is a valuable source of information to access perceptions of risk, and develop climate risk management and adaptation plans. The questionnaire design and statistical methodology may be of interest to those working on community-based adaptation and risk assessment projects in high-risk, poor, and marginalized Native communities with small populations.

Testing cloud microphysics parameterizations in NCAR CAM5 with ISDAC and M-PACE observations

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaohong; Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Shi, Xiangjun; Wang, Zhien; Lin, Wuyin; Ghan, Steven J.; Earle, Michael; Liu, Peter S. K.; Zelenyuk, Alla

2011-01-01

Arctic clouds simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) are evaluated with observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), which were conducted at its North Slope of Alaska site in April 2008 and October 2004, respectively. Model forecasts for the Arctic spring and fall seasons performed under the Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed framework generally reproduce the spatial distributions of cloud fraction for single-layer boundary-layer mixed-phase stratocumulus and multilayer or deep frontal clouds. However, for low-level stratocumulus, the model significantly underestimates the observed cloud liquid water content in both seasons. As a result, CAM5 significantly underestimates the surface downward longwave radiative fluxes by 20-40 W m-2. Introducing a new ice nucleation parameterization slightly improves the model performance for low-level mixed-phase clouds by increasing cloud liquid water content through the reduction of the conversion rate from cloud liquid to ice by the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process. The CAM5 single-column model testing shows that changing the instantaneous freezing temperature of rain to form snow from -5°C to -40°C causes a large increase in modeled cloud liquid water content through the slowing down of cloud liquid and rain-related processes (e.g., autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain). The underestimation of aerosol concentrations in CAM5 in the Arctic also plays an important role in the low bias of cloud liquid water in the single-layer mixed-phase clouds. In addition, numerical issues related to the coupling of model physics and time stepping in CAM5 are responsible for the model biases and will be explored in future studies.

Contributions of Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation, Large-Scale Circulation, and Shallow Cumulus Detrainment to Cloud Phase Transition in Mixed-Phase Clouds with NCAR CAM5

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.; Wang, Z.

2016-12-01

Mixed-phase clouds consisting of both liquid and ice water occur frequently at high-latitudes and in mid-latitude storm track regions. This type of clouds has been shown to play a critical role in the surface energy balance, surface air temperature, and sea ice melting in the Arctic. Cloud phase partitioning between liquid and ice water determines the cloud optical depth of mixed-phase clouds because of distinct optical properties of liquid and ice hydrometeors. The representation and simulation of cloud phase partitioning in state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are associated with large biases. In this study, the cloud phase partition in mixed-phase clouds simulated from the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) is evaluated against satellite observations. Observation-based supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) is calculated from CloudSat, MODIS and CPR radar detected liquid and ice water paths for clouds with cloud-top temperatures between -40 and 0°C. Sensitivity tests with CAM5 are conducted for different heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations with respect to aerosol influence (Wang et al., 2014), different phase transition temperatures for detrained cloud water from shallow convection (Kay et al., 2016), and different CAM5 model configurations (free-run versus nudged winds and temperature, Zhang et al., 2015). A classical nucleation theory-based ice nucleation parameterization in mixed-phase clouds increases the SLF especially at temperatures colder than -20°C, and significantly improves the model agreement with observations in the Arctic. The change of transition temperature for detrained cloud water increases the SLF at higher temperatures and improves the SLF mostly over the Southern Ocean. Even with the improved SLF from the ice nucleation and shallow cumulus detrainment, the low SLF biases in some regions can only be improved through the improved circulation with the nudging technique. Our study highlights the challenges of

Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Lefort, Stelly; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Arsouze, Thomas; Gehlen, Marion; Maury, Olivier

2015-01-01

Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de-oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~-3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~-8%) under the 'business as usual' climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES)--ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL-CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size-structured bio-energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES-APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body-size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body-size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low- and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body-size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body-size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body-size organisms might be

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

The relative role of dispersal and local interactions for alpine plant community diversity under simulated climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klanderud, K.; Totland, Oe. [Norwegian Univ. of Life Science, Dept. of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Aas (Norway)

2007-08-15

Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs). Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala. These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity. (au)

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution).

Science.gov (United States)

Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

2011-12-01

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

#ClimateEdCommunity : Field Workshops Bring Together Teachers and Researchers to Make Meaning of Science and Classroom Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Bartholow, S.; Warburton, J.; Wood, J. H.; Steiner, S. M.

2015-12-01

Seeing Understanding and Teaching: Climate Change in Denali is a four-day immersive teacher professional development course held in Denali National Park. Developed through three partner organizations, the course aims to develop teachers' skills for integrating climate change content into their classrooms. This presentation aims to share tangible best practices for linking researchers and teachers in the field, through four years of experience in program delivery and reported through a published external evaluation. This presentation will examine the key aspects of a successful connection between teachers, researchers, science, and classrooms: (1) Inclusion of teacher leaders, (2) dedicated program staff, (3) workshop community culture, and will expose barriers to this type of collaboration including (1) differences in learning style, (2) prior teaching experience, (3) existing/scaffolding understanding of climate change science, and (4) accessibility of enrollment and accommodations for the extended learning experience. Presentation Content Examples:Participants overwhelmingly value the deep commitment this course has to linking their field experience to the classroom attributing to the role of a teacher-leader; an expert science teacher with first-hand field research experience in the polar regions. The goal of including a teacher-leader is to enhance translatability between fieldwork and the classroom. Additionally, qualitative aspects of the report touches on the intangible successes of the workshop such as: (1) the creation of a non-judgmental learning atmosphere, (2) addressing accessibility to science learning tools in rural and under-served communities, (3) defining successful collaboration as making meaning together through exploratory questioning while in the field (4) discussed the social and cultural implications of climate change, and the difficulty of navigating these topics in educational and/or multicultural spaces. Next Steps? Create a #ClimateEdCommunity

A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

2006-01-01

This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

Alpine vegetation communities and the alpine-treeline ecotone boundary in New England as biomonitors for climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Kenneth D. Kimball; Douglas M. Weihrauch

2000-01-01

This study mapped and analyzed the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE) boundary and alpine plant communities on the Presidential Range, New Hampshire and Mount Katahdin, Maine. These are sensitive biomonitoring parameters for plant community responses to climatic change. The ATE boundary spans a considerable elevational range, suggesting that shorter growing seasons with...

Effects of Institutional Climate and Culture on the Perceptions of the Working Environments of Public Community Colleges

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Stephanie J.; Taylor, Colette M.

2012-01-01

Researchers have found that, although community colleges continue to remain gendered organizations, their climates and cultures are perceived to be more open to women than are their college and university peers. Community colleges may in fact still have the male orientation of the higher education system despite their efforts to be…

Infusion of Climate Change and Geospatial Science Concepts into Environmental and Biological Science Curriculum

Science.gov (United States)

Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.; Rosenzweig, J.; Shishodia, S.

2017-12-01

The objective of our activity is to improve the students understanding and interpretation of geospatial science and climate change concepts and its applications in the field of Environmental and Biological Sciences in the College of Science Engineering and Technology (COEST) at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston, TX. The courses of GIS for Environment, Ecology and Microbiology were selected for the curriculum infusion. A total of ten GIS hands-on lab modules, along with two NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) lab modules on climate change were implemented in the "GIS for Environment" course. GIS and Google Earth Labs along with climate change lectures were infused into Microbiology and Ecology courses. Critical thinking and empirical skills of the students were assessed in all the courses. The student learning outcomes of these courses includes the ability of students to interpret the geospatial maps and the student demonstration of knowledge of the basic principles and concepts of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and climate change. At the end of the courses, students developed a comprehensive understanding of the geospatial data, its applications in understanding climate change and its interpretation at the local and regional scales during multiple years.

Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.

Science.gov (United States)

Clare, Frances C; Halder, Julia B; Daniel, Olivia; Bielby, Jon; Semenov, Mikhail A; Jombart, Thibaut; Loyau, Adeline; Schmeller, Dirk S; Cunningham, Andrew A; Rowcliffe, Marcus; Garner, Trenton W J; Bosch, Jaime; Fisher, Matthew C

2016-12-05

Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

Climate change adaptation planning for the Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada: A combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement approach

Science.gov (United States)

Melton, J. R.; Kaplan, J. O.; Matthews, R.; Sydneysmith, R.; Tesluk, J.; Piggot, G.; Robinson, D. C.; Brinkman, D.; Marmorek, D.; Cohen, S.; McPherson, K.

2011-12-01

The Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada is among the world's most important commercial forest production areas, a key transportation corridor, and provides critical habitat for salmon and other wildlife. Climate change compounds threats to the region from other local environmental and social challenges. To aid local communities in adaptive planning for future climate change impacts, our project combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement in a participatory approach to build regional capacity to prepare and respond to climate change. The sociological aspect of our study interviewed local leaders and resource managers (both First Nations and settlers groups in three communities) to examine how perceptions of environmental and socioeconomic issues have changed in the recent past, and the values placed on diverse natural resources at the present. The three communities differed in their perception of the relative value and condition of community resources, such as small business, natural resource trade, education and local government. However, all three communities regarded salmon as their most important and threatened resource. The most important future drivers of change in the study region were perceived to be: "aboriginal rights, title and treaty settlements", "availability of natural resources", "natural resource policies", and the "global economy". Climate change, as a potential driver of change in the region, was perceived as less important than other socio-economic factors; even though climate records for the region already demonstrate warmer winters, decreased snowfall, and decreased spring precipitation over the last half century. The natural science component of our project applies a regional-scale dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to simulate the potential future of forest ecosystems, with a focus on how climate change and management strategy interact to influence forest productivity, disturbance frequency, species

Development of a methodology to assess the climate evolution and its impacts on wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simard, I. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada); Yu, W. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). Meteorological Research Div.; Gagnon, Y. [Moncton Univ., NB (Canada). K.C. Irving Chair in Sustainable Development

2010-07-01

Maps of wind resources were used to develop a method of evaluating climatic changes and their potential impacts on wind energy resources. Global IPCC climate change scenarios were used to predict climatic conditions for the future, while past wind resource availability was simulated and validated using NCEP and NCAR reanalysis data as well as observed meteorological data from Environment Canada. The simulations were used to compare each 5-year period with a 50-year reference period. Regional scale climate change impacts were evaluated using a statistical dynamic down-scaling method. Advanced meteorological models were used to predict wind flow patterns across specific landscapes. The evolution of past wind resource availability was then simulated. Five-year wind resource simulations for a 50-year period were simulated at 25 km{sup 2} wind speeds at 80 m above the ground. Average wind speed variations were then evaluated. The method has been used to simulate 5-year periods within a 50-year reference period in New Brunswick. Further studies will be conducted to simulate future wind resources availability. tabs., figs.

Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pratiksha Sharma

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception and adaptation strategies followed by different farmers of world including Chepang is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendriksen, Kåre

2011-01-01

Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

Insect community responses to climate and weather across elevation gradients in the Sagebrush Steppe, eastern Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Pilliod, David S.; Rohde, Ashley T.

2016-11-17

Executive SummaryIn this study, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of insects as bioindicators of climate change in sagebrush steppe shrublands and grasslands in the Upper Columbia Basin. The research was conducted in the Stinkingwater and Pueblo mountain ranges in eastern Oregon on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management.We used a “space-for-time” sampling design that related insect communities to climate and weather along elevation gradients. We analyzed our insect dataset at three levels of organization: (1) whole-community, (2) feeding guilds (detritivores, herbivores, nectarivores, parasites, and predators), and (3) orders within nectarivores (i.e., pollinators). We captured 59,517 insects from 176 families and 10 orders at the Pueblo Mountains study area and 112,305 insects from 185 families and 11 orders at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area in 2012 and 2013. Of all the individuals captured at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area, 77,688 were from the family Cecidomyiidae (Diptera, gall gnats).We found that the composition of insect communities was associated with variability in long-term (30-yr) temperature and interannual fluctuations in temperature. We found that captures of certain fly, bee, moth, and butterfly pollinators were more strongly associated with some climate and vegetation variables than others. We found that timing of emergence, as measured by first detection of families, was associated with elevation. When analyzed by feeding guilds, we found that all guilds emerged later at high elevations except for detritivores, which emerged earlier at high elevations. The abundance of most taxa varied through time, mostly in response to temperature and precipitation. Of the pollinators, bees (particularly, Halictidae and Megachilidae) peaked in abundance in late June and early July, whereas butterflies and moths peaked in August. Flies peaked in abundance in July.Overall, our interpretation of these patterns is that

Climatology (communication arising): Rural land-use change and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2004-01-01

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Climatology (communication arising): rural land-use change and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E

2004-01-15

Kalnay and Cai claim that urbanization and land-use change have a major effect on the climate in the United States. They used surface temperatures obtained from NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalyses (NNR) and their difference compared with observed station surface temperatures as the basis for their conclusions, on the grounds that the NNR did not include these anthropogenic effects. However, we note that the NNR also overlooked other factors, such as known changes in clouds and in surface moisture, which are more likely to explain Kalnay and Cai's findings. Although urban heat-island effects are real in cities, direct estimates of the effects of rural land-use change indicate a cooling rather than a warming influence that is due to a greater reflection of sunlight.

Transdisciplinarity Within the North American Climate Change Mitigation Research Community, Specifically the Carbon Dioxide Capture, Transportation, Utilization and Storage Community

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Steven Michael

This research investigates the existence of and potential challenges to the development of a transdisciplinary approach to the climate change mitigation technology research focusing on carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in North America. The unprecedented challenge of global climate change is one that invites a transdisciplinary approach. The challenge of climate change mitigation requires an understanding of multiple disciplines, as well as the role that complexity, post-normal or post-modern science, and uncertainty play in combining these various disciplines. This research followed the general discourse of transdisciplinarity as described by Klein (2014) and Augsburg (2016) which describe it as using transcendence, problem solving, and transgression to address wicked, complex societal problems, and as taught by California School of Transdisciplinarity, where the research focuses on sustainability in the age of post-normal science (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993). Through the use of electronic surveys and semi-structured interviews, members of the North American climate change mitigation research community shared their views and understanding of transdisciplinarity (Kvale & Brinkmann, 2009). The data indicate that much of the research currently being conducted by members of the North American CCUS research community is in fact transdisciplinary. What is most intriguing is the manner in which researchers arrived at their current understanding of transdisciplinarity, which is in many cases without any foreknowledge or use of the term transdisciplinary. The data reveals that in many cases the researchers now understand that this transdisciplinary approach is borne out of personal beliefs or emotion, social or societal aspects, their educational process, the way in which they communicate, and in most cases, the CCUS research itself, that require this transdisciplinary approach, but had never thought about giving it a name or understanding its origin or

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-01-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.

Managing Community Resilience to Climate Extremes, Rapid Unsustainable Urbanization, Emergencies of Scarcity, and Biodiversity Crises by Use of a Disaster Risk Reduction Bank.

Science.gov (United States)

Canyon, Deon V; Burkle, Frederick M; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

Earth's climate is changing and national and international decision-makers are recognizing that global health security requires urgent attention and a significant investment to protect the future. In most locations, current data are inadequate to conduct a full assessment of the direct and indirect health impacts of climate change. All states require this information to evaluate community-level resilience to climate extremes and climate change. A model that is being used successfully in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand is recommended to generate rapid information to assist decision-makers in the event of a disaster. The model overcomes barriers to success inherent in the traditional ''top-down'' approach to managing crises and recognizes the capacity of capable citizens and community organizers to facilitate response and recovery if provided the opportunity and resources. Local information is a prerequisite for strategic and tactical statewide planning. Time and resources are required to analyze risks within each community and what is required to prevent (mitigate), prepare, respond, recover (rehabilitate), anticipate, and assess any threatening events. Specific requirements at all levels from state to community must emphasize community roles by focusing on how best to maintain, respond, and recover public health protections and the infrastructure necessary for health security.

The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

2013-12-01

Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

Microbial decomposers not constrained by climate history along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Nameer R; Khalili, Banafshe; Martiny, Jennifer B H; Allison, Steven D

2018-06-01

Microbial decomposers mediate the return of CO 2 to the atmosphere by producing extracellular enzymes to degrade complex plant polymers, making plant carbon available for metabolism. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. We analyzed mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzyme activities, and enzyme temperature sensitivities in grassland litter transplanted along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California. Microbial community composition was manipulated by caging litter within bags made of nylon membrane that prevent microbial immigration. To test whether grassland microbes were constrained by climate history, half of the bags were inoculated with local microbial communities native to each gradient site. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbial communities were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions across the gradient, although microbial communities across our gradient may be restricted in their ability to degrade different types of litter. We did find some evidence that local microbial communities were optimized based on climate, but local microbial taxa that proliferated after inoculation into litterbags did not enhance litter decomposition. Our results suggest that microbial community composition does not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system, but optimization to particular resource environments may act as more general constraints on microbial communities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonnell, T.C.; Belyazid, S.; Sullivan, T.J.; Sverdrup, H.; Bowman, W.D.; Porter, E.M.

2014-01-01

To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010–2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha −1  yr −1 . Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone. - Highlights: • A novel calibration step was introduced for modeling biodiversity with ForSAFE-Veg. • Modeled increases in tree cover are consistent with empirical studies. • Reductions in N deposition decreased future graminoid percent cover. • Critical loads of N to protect biodiversity should consider climate change effects. - Subalpine plant biodiversity in Rocky Mountain National Park has already been impacted by N deposition and climate change and is expected to experience significant future effects

Divergence of dominant factors in soil microbial communities and functions in forest ecosystems along a climatic gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zhiwei; Yu, Guirui; Zhang, Xinyu; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Qiufeng; Wang, Shengzhong; Xu, Xiaofeng; Wang, Ruili; Zhao, Ning

2018-03-01

Soil microorganisms play an important role in regulating nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Most of the studies conducted thus far have been confined to a single forest biome or have focused on one or two controlling factors, and few have dealt with the integrated effects of climate, vegetation, and soil substrate availability on soil microbial communities and functions among different forests. In this study, we used phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) analysis to investigate soil microbial community structure and extracellular enzymatic activities to evaluate the functional potential of soil microbes of different types of forests in three different climatic zones along the north-south transect in eastern China (NSTEC). Both climate and forest type had significant effects on soil enzyme activities and microbial communities with considerable interactive effects. Except for soil acid phosphatase (AP), the other three enzyme activities were much higher in the warm temperate zone than in the temperate and the subtropical climate zones. The soil total PLFAs and bacteria were much higher in the temperate zone than in the warm temperate and the subtropical zones. The soil β-glucosidase (BG) and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activities were highest in the coniferous forest. Except for the soil fungi and fungi-bacteria (F/B), the different groups of microbial PLFAs were much higher in the conifer broad-leaved mixed forests than in the coniferous forests and the broad-leaved forests. In general, soil enzyme activities and microbial PLFAs were higher in primary forests than in secondary forests in temperate and warm temperate regions. In the subtropical region, soil enzyme activities were lower in the primary forests than in the secondary forests and microbial PLFAs did not differ significantly between primary and secondary forests. Different compositions of the tree species may cause variations in soil microbial communities and enzyme activities. Our results

Potentials and limitations of epistemic communities. An analysis of the World Climate Council and the Framework Convention on Climate Change; Potenziale und Grenzen von epistemic communities. Eine Analyse des Weltklimarates und der Klimarahmenkonvention

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Otto, Daniel

2015-07-01

In times of increasing global uncertainties, science takes a central position for policy decisions. According to Peter M. Haas, epistemic communities are able to influence the cooperative behavior of states through their consensual knowledge. This book critically examines this statement. As the case of the Framework Convention on Climate Change shows, the World Climate Council (IPCC) was not in a position to enforce its solution options in the intergovernmental negotiations, as these affected the individual convictions of the decision-makers. While Angela Merkel advocated an agreement, the US government under George W. Bush denied the existence of climate change. Decision-makers and their individual convictions must therefore have a greater significance in international politics. [German] In Zeiten zunehmender globaler Unsicherheiten nimmt die Wissenschaft fuer die Entscheidungen der Politik eine zentrale Stellung ein. Epistemic communities sind nach Peter M. Haas durch ihr konsensuales Wissen in der Lage, das Kooperationsverhalten von Staaten zu beeinflussen. Das vorliegende Buch prueft diese Aussage kritisch. Wie der Fall der Klimarahmenkonvention zeigt, war der Weltklimarat (IPCC) nicht in der Lage, seine Loesungsoptionen in den zwischenstaatlichen Verhandlungen durchzusetzen, da diesen die individuellen Ueberzeugungen der Entscheidungstraeger entgegenstanden. Waehrend Angela Merkel ein Abkommen befuerwortete, bestritt die US-Regierung unter George W. Bush die Existenz des Klimawandels. Entscheidungstraegern und ihren individuellen Ueberzeugungen muss daher in der internationalen Politik eine staerkere Bedeutung zukommen.

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

2010-12-15

The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

How accurately are climatological characteristics and surface water and energy balances represented for the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin?

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyos, Isabel; Baquero-Bernal, Astrid; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-09-01

In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while

Parallel analysis tools and new visualization techniques for ultra-large climate data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Middleton, Don [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Haley, Mary [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2014-12-10

ParVis was a project funded under LAB 10-05: “Earth System Modeling: Advanced Scientific Visualization of Ultra-Large Climate Data Sets”. Argonne was the lead lab with partners at PNNL, SNL, NCAR and UC-Davis. This report covers progress from January 1st, 2013 through Dec 1st, 2014. Two previous reports covered the period from Summer, 2010, through September 2011 and October 2011 through December 2012, respectively. While the project was originally planned to end on April 30, 2013, personnel and priority changes allowed many of the institutions to continue work through FY14 using existing funds. A primary focus of ParVis was introducing parallelism to climate model analysis to greatly reduce the time-to-visualization for ultra-large climate data sets. Work in the first two years was conducted on two tracks with different time horizons: one track to provide immediate help to climate scientists already struggling to apply their analysis to existing large data sets and another focused on building a new data-parallel library and tool for climate analysis and visualization that will give the field a platform for performing analysis and visualization on ultra-large datasets for the foreseeable future. In the final 2 years of the project, we focused mostly on the new data-parallel library and associated tools for climate analysis and visualization.

Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeppesen, E.; Meerhoff, M.; Holmgren, K.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; Declerck, Steven A.J.; De Meester, L.; Søndergaard, M.; Lauridsen, T.; Bjerring, R.; Conde-Porcuna, J-M.; Mazzeo, N.; Iglesias, C.; Reizenstein, M.; Malmquist, H.J.; Liu, Z.; Balayla, D.; Lazzaro, X.

2010-01-01

Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation

Black Sea's wind wave parameters derived from numerical simulations driven by NCEP/NCAR and NCEP CFSR reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

Gippius, Fedor; Myslenkov, Stanislav; Stoliarova, Elena; Arkhipkin, Victor

2017-04-01

This study is focused on typical features of spatiotemporal distribution of wind wave parameters on the Black Sea. These parameters were calculated during two experiments using the third-generation spectral wind wave model SWAN. During the first run a 5x5 km rectangular grid covering the entire Black Sea was used. Forcing parameters - wind speed and direction - were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period between 1948 and 2010. During the second run high resolution wind fields form the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis were used as forcing for the period from 1979 till 2010. For the period form 2011 till 2015 the second version of this reanalysis was used. The computations were performed on an unstructured computational grid with cell size depending on the sea depth. The distance between grid points varies from 10—15 km in deep-water regions till 500 m in coastal areas. Calculated values of significant wave heights (SWH) obtained during both runs were validated against instrumental measurements data. In the first case we used satellite altimetry data from the AVISO project. It turned out that calculated SWH values are typically lower than observed ones - the deviation between them was 0.3 m on the average, its maximum was of 1.67 m. Therefore, an empirical formula was applied to correct the modeling results obtained during the first experiment. For the second experiment in situ measurements performed by a Datawell buoy installed 7 km off the city Gelendzhik were used for validation. The comparison of measured and modelled values of SWH shows a good agreement between these parameters in this case. No correction was applied to the results of the second experiment. We applied the results of the NCEP/NCAR experiment to assess various features of the wave climate of the entire Black Sea. Thus, maximal SWH are observed in winter and autumn in two areas in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the sea; SWH values in these areas exceed 9 m. To define areas with most

A community based approach to improving resilience of forests and water resources: A local and regional climate adaptation methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Toby Thaler; Gwen Griffith; Nancy Gilliam

2014-01-01

Forest-based ecosystem services are at risk from human-caused stressors, including climate change. Improving governance and management of forests to reduce impacts and increase community resilience to all stressors is the objective of forest-related climate change adaptation. The Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) has applied one method designed to meet this objective...

Accessing Both Halves of the Brain to Make Climate Decisions: How Community-Sourced Media, Earth Remote Sensing Data, and Creative Placemaking Art Can Cultivate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

2017-12-01

Decision-making, science tells us, accesses multiple parts of the brain: both logic and data as well as memory and emotion. It is this mix of signals that propels individuals and communities to act. Founded in 2012, ISeeChange is the nation's first community crowdsourced climate and weather journal that empowers users to document environmental changes with others and discuss the impacts over time. Our neighborhood investigation methodology includes residents documenting their personal experiences alongside collected data, Earth remote sensing data, and local artists interpreting community questions and experiences into place-based public art in the neighborhood to inspire a culture of resilience and climate literacy. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. Our groundbreaking environmental reporting platform—available online and through a mobile app—personalizes and tracks climate change from the perspective of every day experiences, bringing Eearth science home and into the placesspaces people know best and trust most- their own communities Our session will focus on our newest neighborhood pilot program in New Orleans, furthering the climate resilience, green infrastructure, and creative placemaking efforts of the Trust for Public Land, the City of New Orleans, and other resilience community partners.

Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

2016-10-01

Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiedler, B H; Bukovsky, M S

2011-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to study the effect of a giant wind farm on warm-season precipitation in the eastern two-thirds of the USA. The boundary conditions for WRF are supplied by 62 years of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) global reanalysis. In the model, the presence of a mid-west wind farm, either giant or small, can have an enormous impact on the weather and the amount of precipitation for one season, which is consistent with the known sensitivity of long-term weather forecasts to initial conditions. The effect on climate is less strong. In the average precipitation of 62 warm seasons, there is a statistically significant 1.0% enhancement of precipitation in a multi-state area surrounding and to the south-east of the wind farm.

Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

Science.gov (United States)

Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

2001-12-01

The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

Science.gov (United States)

San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

2011-09-01

Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy

2016-04-01

Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

Building Climate Literacy Through Strategic Partnerships

Science.gov (United States)

Turrin, M.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; Meadows, C. A.

2012-12-01

One of the challenges of developing climate science literacy is establishing the relevance of both climate science and climate change at a local community level. By developing partnerships with community-based informal science education providers, we are able to build our climate science and climate change content into existing programs. Employing a systems science approach facilitates these partnerships as our systems science program links with a range of topics, demonstrating the multiple connections between climate, our communities and our daily lives. Merging hands on activities, collaborative projects, and new technology, we encourage learning through doing by engaging participants in active exploration of climate science concepts. Many informal education venues operating locally, from large science museums to small grass-roots community groups, provide ongoing opportunities to connect with students. Through our collaborations we have worked with various types and sizes of non-classroom science providers including: the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum "Greater Opportunities Advancing Leadership and Science" camps for high school girls, Hudson River Park Trust 'Science on the River' events, the annual New York City World Science Festival, and the AAUW's annual STEM Super Scholars Workshops among others. This range of venues has enabled us to reach various ages, backgrounds and interests advancing climate literacy in a number of forums. Major outcomes of these efforts are: (1) Building capacity with community groups: Many local organizations running community programs do not have in-house science expertise. Both science educators and local organization benefit from these collaborations. Science educators and scientists provide up to date climate science information to the community groups while these programs establish strong working relationships between our research and the local community. (2) Developing climate science literacy and lifelong learning: We

Sustained Large-Scale Collective Climate Action Supported by Effective Climate Change Education Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.

2017-12-01

Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be

Climate Feedback: Bringing the Scientific Community to Provide Direct Feedback on the Credibility of Climate Media Coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, E. M.; Matlock, T.; Westerling, A. L.

2015-12-01

While most scientists recognize climate change as a major societal and environmental issue, social and political will to tackle the problem is still lacking. One of the biggest obstacles is inaccurate reporting or even outright misinformation in climate change coverage that result in the confusion of the general public on the issue.In today's era of instant access to information, what we read online usually falls outside our field of expertise and it is a real challenge to evaluate what is credible. The emerging technology of web annotation could be a game changer as it allows knowledgeable individuals to attach notes to any piece of text of a webpage and to share them with readers who will be able to see the annotations in-context -like comments on a pdf.Here we present the Climate Feedback initiative that is bringing together a community of climate scientists who collectively evaluate the scientific accuracy of influential climate change media coverage. Scientists annotate articles sentence by sentence and assess whether they are consistent with scientific knowledge allowing readers to see where and why the coverage is -or is not- based on science. Scientists also summarize the essence of their critical commentary in the form of a simple article-level overall credibility rating that quickly informs readers about the credibility of the entire piece.Web-annotation allows readers to 'hear' directly from the experts and to sense the consensus in a personal way as one can literaly see how many scientists agree with a given statement. It also allows a broad population of scientists to interact with the media, notably early career scientists.In this talk, we will present results on the impacts annotations have on readers -regarding their evaluation of the trustworthiness of the information they read- and on journalists -regarding their reception of scientists comments.Several dozen scientists have contributed to this effort to date and the system offers potential to

A modelling framework to assess climate change and adaptation impact on heterogeneous crop-livestock farming communities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Descheemaeker, K.K.E.; Masikati, P.; Homann-Kee Tui, S.; Chibwana, G.A.; Crespo, O.

2015-01-01

Climate change will impact the productivity of maize-based crop-livestock systems and the livelihoods of smallholders depending on them in semi-arid Zimbabwe. The large diversity in resource endowment and production objectives in rural communities differentially influences this impact and the

Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

2014-01-01

First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

Evaluating a European knowledge hub on climate change in agriculture: Are we building a better connected community?

Science.gov (United States)

Saetnan, Eli Rudinow; Kipling, Richard Philip

In order to maintain food security and sustainability of production under climate change, interdisciplinary and international collaboration in research is essential. In the EU, knowledge hubs are important funding instruments for the development of an interconnected European Research Area. Here, network analysis was used to assess whether the pilot knowledge hub MACSUR has affected interdisciplinary collaboration, using co-authorship of peer reviewed articles as a measure of collaboration. The broad community of all authors identified as active in the field of agriculture and climate change was increasingly well connected over the period studied. Between knowledge hub members, changes in network parameters suggest an increase in collaborative interaction beyond that expected due to network growth, and greater than that found in the broader community. Given that interdisciplinary networks often take several years to have an impact on research outputs, these changes within the relatively new MACSUR community provide evidence that the knowledge hub structure has been effective in stimulating collaboration. However, analysis showed that knowledge hub partners were initially well-connected, suggesting that the initiative may have gathered together researchers with particular resources or inclinations towards collaborative working. Long term, consistent funding and ongoing reflection to improve networking structures may be necessary to sustain the early positive signs from MACSUR, to extend its success to a wider community of researchers, or to repeat it in less connected fields of science. Tackling complex challenges such as climate change will require research structures that can effectively support and utilise the diversity of talents beyond the already well-connected core of scientists at major research institutes. But network research shows that this core, well-connected group are vital brokers in achieving wider integration.

Combining tower mixing ratio and community model data to estimate regional-scale net ecosystem carbon exchange by boundary layer inversion over four flux towers in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Xueri Dang; Chun-Ta Lai; David Y. Hollinger; Andrew J. Schauer; Jingfeng Xiao; J. William Munger; Clenton Owensby; James R. Ehleringer

2011-01-01

We evaluated an idealized boundary layer (BL) model with simple parameterizations using vertical transport information from community model outputs (NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF Interim Analysis) to estimate regional-scale net CO2 fluxes from 2002 to 2007 at three forest and one grassland flux sites in the United States. The BL modeling...

Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirtman, Ben P.; Rousset, Clement; Siqueira, Leo [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Bitz, Cecilia [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science, Seattle, WA (United States); Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; Hearn, Nathan; Loft, Richard; Tomas, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Collins, William [University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); Kinter, James L.; Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)

2012-09-15

The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5) - the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5 atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5 ; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2 and meridional resolution varying from 0.27 at the equator to 0.54 in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1 ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2 C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

Science.gov (United States)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Climate Change Action Fund: public education and outreach. Change: think climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-05-01

This illustrated booklet provides a glimpse of the many creative approaches being adopted by educators, community groups, industry associations and governments at all levels to inform Canadians about the causes and effects of climate change. It also provides suggestions about how each individual person can contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through residential energy efficiency, by participating in ride-share programs, by planting trees and a myriad of other community action projects and public awareness campaigns. The booklet describes educational resources and training available to teachers, science presentations, climate change workshops, public awareness initiatives, community action on climate change, and sector-specific actions underway in the field of transportation and in improving energy efficiency in residential and large buildings. Descriptive summaries of the activities of organizations involved in climate change advocacy and promotion, and a list of contacts for individual projects also form part of the volume

A Model for Teaching a Climate Change Elective Science Course at the Community College Level

Science.gov (United States)

Mandia, S. A.

2012-12-01

The impact of global climate change is far-reaching, both for humanity and for the environment. It is essential that our students be provided a strong scientific background for the role of natural and human caused climate change so that they are better prepared to become involved in the discussion. Here the author reveals a successful model designed for use with a diverse student body at the community college level. Teaching strategies beyond the traditional lecture and exam style include: web-based resources such as static websites along with dynamic blogging tools, post-lecture cooperative learning review sessions, weekly current event research projects, use of rubrics to assist students in their own project evaluation before submission, and a research paper utilizing the Skeptical Science website to examine the validity of the most common climate change myths.

On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

The ESA climate change initiative: Satellite data records for essential climate variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollmann, R.; Merchant, C.J.; Saunders, R.

2013-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) has launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) to provide satellite-based climate data records (CDRs) that meet the challenging requirements of the climate community. The aim is to realize the full potential of the long-term Earth observation (EO) archives...... that both ESA and third parties have established. This includes aspects of producing a CDR, which involve data acquisition, calibration, algorithm development, validation, maintenance, and provision of the data to the climate research community. The CCI is consistent with several international efforts...... targeting the generation of satellite derived climate data records. One focus of the CCI is to provide products for climate modelers who increasingly use satellite data to initialize, constrain, and validate models on a wide range of space and time scales....

Climate Change and Health: Nurses as Drivers of Climate Action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cara Cook

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Changes to Earth’s climate are occurring globally at unprecedented rates with significant impacts to human and population health, including increased likelihood of mental health illnesses, food and water insecurity, insect-borne and heat-related illnesses, and respiratory diseases. Those in the health sector are seeing the challenges patients and community members are experiencing as a result of current and projected climate threats. Health professionals, including nurses, have an opportunity to lead the charge to significantly improve society’s response to climate change and foster the strategies needed to promote health. This article highlights the current work of the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, a national nursing organization focused solely on environmental health concerns, in inspiring and empowering nurses across the country to engage in action to reduce their climate impact, move climate solutions forward, and improve the ability of health care institutions and communities to respond to the health impacts of climate change.

Threats and climate risks into vulnerable populations. The role of education in the community resilience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edgar Javier GONZÁLEZ-GAUDIANO

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, challenges in the contemporary world lead to the education to propose its current themes. Environmental education is not an exception. The magnitude and complexity of global environmental problems such as the climate change, the ocean acidification and the loss of the biodiversity have generated issues that had attracted pedagogical attention for decades. This article presents the early results of a study aimed at assessing the perception of risk and vulnerability of communities that frequently are affected by extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. These findings could be a starting point for the design of educational programs aimed at strengthening community resilience. We start from the assumption based on socio-cognitive factors that determine the dispositions in order to the populations can act under similar circumstances, we can find key elements that allow us to infer their reactions to difficult situations. This considering their previous experience and their singularities in the adaptation to climate change, in the social learning in extreme situations and in the identification of their strengths and weaknesses.

Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

2014-04-01

First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

Differences in Certification and the Effect on Team Climate Among Community Health Workers in Texas.

Science.gov (United States)

Siemon, Mark; Kreglo, Brenna; Boursaw, Blake

The purpose of this study was to compare team climate among Texas community health workers (CHWs)/promotoras who were certified by the 2 different methods: (a) completing a state-approved training program, and (b) providing evidence of work experience (grandfathering). Analysis of survey results found no significant differences in Team Climate Inventory scores between CHWs who were certified either through state-approved training or through work experience. This research provides some preliminary evidence in support of experience-based certification, but there continues to be a need for more research evaluating CHW certification requirements and the impact of state certification of CHWs on population health outcomes.

Formal education as an avenue for community action on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cordero, E.

2017-12-01

Green Ninja started at San Jose State University as an educational initiative to inspire youth action on climate change. We created educational videos, games and lesson plans that promoted climate science literacy and pro-environmental behavior. Although some teachers found our content valuable, we came to learn that the overriding decisions about course curriculum come from the school district level. Should we want to scale in a manner that might really provide an environmental benefit, we needed to learn about school district needs and to develop a product that solves their problems. This presentation will discuss our journey from value propositions to empathy for our clients, and how we came to realize that the best approach for achieving our common goals was through the commercial marketplace. We will share data from some of our early adopters that suggests that formal education can both achieve district goals while also delivering environmental benefits. We will also describe the value of partnerships and how leveraging support from communities with aligning interests are improving our chances of success.

Teaching vs. Preaching: Complex Climate Shown Simply

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, M.; Besser, N.

2013-12-01

Stepping outside of traditional educational venues to reach people in ways they can relate to is critical in engaging the public in topics that are complex and subtle, particularly those that have become polarized and misunderstood. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently designed a visitor center for its new supercomputing facility that incorporates a variety of elements intended to draw visitors in, pique their curiosity, and invite them to explore the world of climate science from a fresh perspective. We made use of video storytelling, highlighting the people at the heart of the research, to present information in a conversational tone while captivating visitors with stunning images and music. We also designed interactive games to illustrate concepts like parallel processing, and how those, in turn, apply to understanding climate. And in addition to more traditional kinesthetic displays, we are exploring ways to use social media as a means of interacting with our audiences. One of the newer modes of communication we've adopted has been cartoon storytelling. Two dimensional cartoon animation has strong cultural connotations of levity and fun. For this reason it has proven to be a particularly useful tool in communicating climate science as it disarms the viewer from the apprehension of trying to understand a great deal of scientific jargon. By crafting key concepts into scripts and using appropriate metaphors with a dash of humor we have been able to reach a far broader audience without sacrificing the science or the message.

Climate-related changes of soil characteristics affect bacterial community composition and function of high altitude and latitude lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Rofner, Carina; Peter, Hannes; Catalán, Núria; Drewes, Fabian; Sommaruga, Ruben; Pérez, María Teresa

2017-06-01

Lakes at high altitude and latitude are typically unproductive ecosystems where external factors outweigh the relative importance of in-lake processes, making them ideal sentinels of climate change. Climate change is inducing upward vegetation shifts at high altitude and latitude regions that translate into changes in the pools of soil organic matter. Upon mobilization, this allochthonous organic matter may rapidly alter the composition and function of lake bacterial communities. Here, we experimentally simulate this potential climate-change effect by exposing bacterioplankton of two lakes located above the treeline, one in the Alps and one in the subarctic region, to soil organic matter from below and above the treeline. Changes in bacterial community composition, diversity and function were followed for 72 h. In the subarctic lake, soil organic matter from below the treeline reduced bulk and taxon-specific phosphorus uptake, indicating that bacterial phosphorus limitation was alleviated compared to organic matter from above the treeline. These effects were less pronounced in the alpine lake, suggesting that soil properties (phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon availability) and water temperature further shaped the magnitude of response. The rapid bacterial succession observed in both lakes indicates that certain taxa directly benefited from soil sources. Accordingly, the substrate uptake profiles of initially rare bacteria (copiotrophs) indicated that they are one of the main actors cycling soil-derived carbon and phosphorus. Our work suggests that climate-induced changes in soil characteristics affect bacterioplankton community structure and function, and in turn, the cycling of carbon and phosphorus in high altitude and latitude aquatic ecosystems. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

Science.gov (United States)

Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

2014-12-01

Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Predictability in community dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Changing heathlands in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ransijn, Johannes

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

Abstracts and final report of the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on Sustainability workshop on climate change and coastal communities: concerns and challenges for today and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-11-01

The participants at this workshop presented important climate change information from a national perspective and provided an opportunity for stakeholder comments on the Southeastern New Brunswick Sea-Level Rise Project. The abstracts presented in this report outlined current research on ocean current variabilities; climate change and coastal erosion impacts in the Gulf of St. Lawrence estuary; and agriculture and climate change. Community focus presentations addressed issues associated with coastal vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise in Haida Gwaii, BC; Inuit observations of climate change; impacts and adaptation to climate change in Atlantic Canada; and communities, fisheries and tourism. Future research orientations from governments were also examined, with information on protection policies for coastal areas; climate change impact and adaptation directorates; climate change scenarios; and potential impacts and possible adaptations to the communities in the region. The studies indicate that the sea level will rise by 70 cm by the year 2100 in the southeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Immediate implementation of New Brunswick's Coastal Areas Protection Policy was recommended. Climate change is an issue that contains ecological, social and economic aspects, linking science to local knowledge. This final report contains 25 abstracts presented at the conference. A participant list and an appendix of the workshop's agenda was also included.

Future local and remote influences on Mediterranean ozone air quality and climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Steve; Martin, Maria Val; Emmons, Louisa; Rap, Alex; Heald, Colette; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone

2013-04-01

The Mediterranean region is expected to display large increases in population over the coming decades, and to exhibit strong sensitivity to projected climate change, with increasing frequency of extreme summer temperatures and decreases in precipitation. Understanding of how these changes will affect atmospheric composition in the region is limited. The eastern Mediterranean basin has been shown to exhibit a pronounced summertime local maximum in tropospheric ozone, which impacts both local air quality and the atmospheric radiation balance. In summer, the region is subject to import of pollution from Northern Europe in the boundary layer and lower troposphere, from North American sources in the large-scale westerly flow of the free mid and upper-troposphere, as well as import of pollution lofted in the Asian monsoon and carried west to the eastern Mediterranean in anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere over north Africa. In addition, interactions with the land-surface through biogenic emission sources and dry deposition play important roles in the Mediterranean ozone budget. Here we use the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate how tropospheric ozone in the Mediterranean region responds to climate, land surface and global emissions changes between present day and 2050. We simulate climate and atmospheric composition for the year 2050, based on greenhouse gas abundances, trace gas and aerosol emissions and land cover and use from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5), designed for use by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) experiments in support of the IPCC. By comparing these simulations with a present-day scenario, we investigate the effects of predicted changes in climate and emissions on air quality and climate forcing over the Mediterranean region. The simulations suggest decreases in boundary layer ozone and sulfate aerosol throughout the tropospheric column over the Mediterranean

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. A. Henson

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

Winter forest soil respiration controlled by climate and microbial community composition.

Science.gov (United States)

Monson, Russell K; Lipson, David L; Burns, Sean P; Turnipseed, Andrew A; Delany, Anthony C; Williams, Mark W; Schmidt, Steven K

2006-02-09

Most terrestrial carbon sequestration at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere occurs in seasonal, montane forest ecosystems. Winter respiratory carbon dioxide losses from these ecosystems are high, and over half of the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis in the summer can be lost the following winter. The amount of winter carbon dioxide loss is potentially susceptible to changes in the depth of the snowpack; a shallower snowpack has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower soil respiration rates. Recent climate analyses have shown widespread declines in the winter snowpack of mountain ecosystems in the western USA and Europe that are coupled to positive temperature anomalies. Here we study the effect of changes in snow cover on soil carbon cycling within the context of natural climate variation. We use a six-year record of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in a subalpine forest to show that years with a reduced winter snowpack are accompanied by significantly lower rates of soil respiration. Furthermore, we show that the cause of the high sensitivity of soil respiration rate to changes in snow depth is a unique soil microbial community that exhibits exponential growth and high rates of substrate utilization at the cold temperatures that exist beneath the snow. Our observations suggest that a warmer climate may change soil carbon sequestration rates in forest ecosystems owing to changes in the depth of the insulating snow cover.

COR1 Engineering Test Unit Measurements at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility, October-November 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, William

2002-01-01

The Engineering Test Unit (ETU) of COR1 was made in two configurations. The first configuration, ETU-1, was for vibration testing, while the second, ETU-2, was for optical testing. This is a report on the optical testing performed on ETU-2 at the NCAR/HAO Vacuum Tunnel Facility during the months of October and November, 2002. This was the same facility used to test the two previous breadboard models. In both configurations, the first two tube sections were complete, with all optical elements aligned. The vibration model ETU-1 had the remaining tube sections attached, with mass models for the remaining optics, for the various mechanisms, and for the focal plane assembly. It was then converted into the optical model ETU-2 by removing tube sections 3 to 5, and mounting the remaining optics on commercial mounts. (The bandpass filter was also installed into tube 2, which had been replaced in ETU-1 by a mass model, so that pre- and post-vibration optical measurements could be made.) Doublet 2 was installed in a Newport LP-2 carrier, and aligned to the other optics in the first two tube sections. The LP-2 adjustment screws were then uralened so that the alignment could be maintained during shipping. Because neither the flight polarizer nor Hollow Core Motor were available, they were simulated by a commercial polarizer and rotational mount, both from Oriel corporation. The Oriel rotational stage was not designed for vacuum use, but it was determined after consultation with the company, and lab testing, that the stage could be used in the moderate vacuum conditions at the NCAR/HAO facility. The shutter and focal plane assembly were simulated with the same camera used for the previous two breadboard tests. The focal plane mask was simulated with a plane of BK7 glass with a mask glued on, using the same procedure as for the Lyot spot on Doublet 1, and mounted in an adjustable LP-2 carrier. Two masks were made, one made to the precise specifications of the optical design, the

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelson, R.; Kokic, P.; Crimp, S.; Meinke, H.B.; Howden, S.M.

2010-01-01

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for

Community violence exposure and post-traumatic stress reactions among Gambian youth: the moderating role of positive school climate.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donnell, Deborah A; Roberts, William C; Schwab-Stone, Mary E

2011-01-01

Community violence exposure among youth can lead to various negative outcomes, including post-traumatic stress symptoms. Research in the Western world indicates that a number of social support factors may moderate the relation between violence exposure and internalizing symptoms. Little research has been carried out in non-Western countries. This study aimed to fill this gap by exploring the relations among violence exposure, parental warmth, positive school climate, and post-traumatic stress reactions among youth in The Republic of The Gambia, Africa. A school-based survey of youth behaviors, feelings, attitudes, and perceptions was administered to 653 students at senior secondary schools in four Gambian communities. Students reported high levels of exposure to violence. Over half of students reported witnessing someone threatened with serious physical harm, beaten up or mugged, attacked or stabbed with a knife/piece of glass, or seriously wounded in an incident of violence. Nearly half of students reported being beaten up or mugged during the past year, and nearly a quarter reported being threatened with serious physical harm. There were no sex differences in levels of exposure. Traumatic stress symptoms were common, especially among females. Both violence witnessing and violent victimization significantly predicted post-traumatic stress symptoms, and positive school climate moderated the relationship. Among youth victimized by violence, positive school climate was most strongly correlated with lower levels of post-traumatic stress at low levels of exposure. Among youth who had witnessed violence, positive school climate was most strongly correlated with lower levels of post-traumatic stress at high levels of exposure. Community-based programs that bring together parents, schools, and youth may play an important role in combating the negative effects of some types of violence exposure among Gambian youth. Youth experiencing high levels of violent victimization

Does social climate influence positive eWOM? A study of heavy-users of online communities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Ruiz-Mafe

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of social influences on positive eWOM behaviour (PeWOM of heavy-users of online communities. Drawing on Social Interaction Utility Framework, Group Marketing and Social Learning Theories, we develop and test a research model integrating the interactions between the social climate of a website and Interpersonal Influences in PeWOM. 262 Spanish heavy-users of online communities were selected and the data analysed using partial least squares equation modelling. Overall, the model explains 59% of the variance of PeWOM on online communities. Findings reveal that interaction with other members of the online community (Social Presence is the main predictor of PeWOM. Social Identity is a mediator between Social Presence and PeWOM. Interpersonal Influence has an important role as a moderator variable; the greater the impact of Interpersonal Influence, the stronger the relationship between Social Presence and PeWOM.

Modernization of the graphics post-processors of the Hamburg German Climate Computer Center Carbon Cycle Codes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, E.J.; McNeilly, G.S.

1994-03-01

The existing National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) code in the Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle Circulation Model and the Hamburg Large-Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model was modernized and reduced in size while still producing an equivalent end result. A reduction in the size of the existing code from more than 50,000 lines to approximately 7,500 lines in the new code has made the new code much easier to maintain. The existing code in Hamburg model uses legacy NCAR (including even emulated CALCOMP subrountines) graphics to display graphical output. The new code uses only current (version 3.1) NCAR subrountines.

Ectomycorrhizal Communities on the Roots of Two Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Populations from Contrasting Climates Differ in Nitrogen Acquisition in a Common Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Leberecht, Martin; Dannenmann, Michael; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Bilela, Silvija; Meier, Rudolf; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz; Schloter, Michael; Polle, Andrea

2015-09-01

Beech (Fagus sylvatica), a dominant forest species in Central Europe, competes for nitrogen with soil microbes and suffers from N limitation under dry conditions. We hypothesized that ectomycorrhizal communities and the free-living rhizosphere microbes from beech trees from sites with two contrasting climatic conditions exhibit differences in N acquisition that contribute to differences in host N uptake and are related to differences in host belowground carbon allocation. To test these hypotheses, young trees from the natural regeneration of two genetically similar populations, one from dryer conditions (located in an area with a southwest exposure [SW trees]) and the other from a cooler, moist climate (located in an area with a northeast exposure [NE trees]), were transplanted into a homogeneous substrate in the same environment and labeled with (13)CO2 and (15)NH4 (+). Free-living rhizosphere microbes were characterized by marker genes for the N cycle, but no differences between the rhizospheres of SW or NE trees were found. Lower (15)N enrichment was found in the ectomycorrhizal communities of the NE tree communities than the SW tree communities, whereas no significant differences in (15)N enrichment were observed for nonmycorrhizal root tips of SW and NE trees. Neither the ectomycorrhizal communities nor the nonmycorrhizal root tips originating from NE and SW trees showed differences in (13)C signatures. Because the level of (15)N accumulation in fine roots and the amount transferred to leaves were lower in NE trees than SW trees, our data support the suggestion that the ectomycorrhizal community influences N transfer to its host and demonstrate that the fungal community from the dry condition was more efficient in N acquisition when environmental constraints were relieved. These findings highlight the importance of adapted ectomycorrhizal communities for forest nutrition in a changing climate. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights

Climate Resilience: Outreach and Engagement with Hard to Reach Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Baja, K.

2017-12-01

Baltimore faces a unique combination of shocks and stresses that cut across social, economic, and environmental sectors. Like many postindustrial cities, Baltimore has experienced a decline in its population - resulting in a lower tax base. These trends have had deleterious effects on the city's ability to attend to much needed infrastructure improvements and human services. Furthermore, Baltimore has an unfortunate history of deliberate racial segregation that is directly responsible for many of the economic and social challenges the City faces today. In addition to considerable social and economic issues, the city is already experiencing negative impacts from climate change. Baltimore is vulnerable to many natural hazards including heavy precipitation, sea level rise, storm surge, and extreme heat. Impacts from hazards and the capacity to adapt to them is not equal across all populations. Low-income residents and communities of color are most vulnerable and lack access to the resources to effectively plan, react and recover. They are also less likely to engage in government processes or input sessions, either due to distrust or ineffective outreach efforts by government employees and partners. This session is focused on sharing best practices and lessons learned from Baltimore's approach to community outreach and engagement as well as its focus on power shifting and relationship building with hard-to-reach communities. Reducing neighborhood vulnerability and strengthening the fabric that holds systems together requires a large number of diverse stakeholders coordinated around resiliency efforts. With the history of deliberate segregation and current disparities it remains critical to build trust, shift power from government to residents, and focus on relationship building. Baltimore City utilized this approach in planning, implementation and evaluation of resiliency work. This session will highlight two plan development processes, several projects, and innovative

Connecting communities for climate and disaster risk preparedness ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Climate adaptation and disaster risk management and response are ... not only mitigate impact but to improve preparedness, risk management, and climate resilience. ... including heat stress, water management, and climate-related migration.

Climate Connections in Virginia: Your Actions Matter

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2016-12-01

Our project objectives are to educate the general public about the science of climate change on global and local scales, highlight current and potential future impacts of climate change on Virginia and its communities, define community climate resiliency and why it is important, illustrate how individuals can contribute to the resiliency of their own community by taking personal steps to be prepared for weather events and health threats related to climate change, and, foster a conversion of climate change awareness and understanding into personal action to increase readiness and resiliency in homes, schools, and communities. The communication methods used to convey climate change and resiliency information are: development of new programming for the museum's NOAA Science on a Sphere® and digital Dome theater, production of a statewide digital media series (24 audio and 12 video content pieces/year), engagement with social media platforms, a public lecture series, facilitation of resiliency-themed programming (Art Lab, Challenge Lab, EcoLab), establishment of extreme event readiness challenge workshops, and enacting community preparedness and resiliency checklist and certification programs. A front-end evaluation was conducted to survey general audience understanding of the difference between climate and weather, climate change impacts, and resilience. We seek here to share some initial content and reflection based on the first few months of this project. Funded by NOAA Award NA15SEC0080009 and the Virginia Environmental Endowment.

Climate Masters of Nebraska: An Action Based Approach to Climate Change Education

Science.gov (United States)

Umphlett, N.; Bernadt, T.; Pathak, T.

2014-12-01

The Climate Masters of Nebraska pilot program started in 2010 with the goal of assisting the community in becoming more knowledgeable and making informed decisions regarding climate change issues. First, participants engage in a 10-week training course where they learn from experts how to reduce their carbon footprint in everyday life. Participants then volunteer at least 30 hours educating the community through household consultations, outreach events, or other creative efforts they want to take to actively influence the community to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first two groups of Climate Masters volunteers completed multiple household consultations, started a drip irrigation project, hosted an informational booth at local events, participated in an Adopt a Highway program, formed a Citizens Climate Lobby group, and worked with the City of Lincoln's reEnergize outreach program. All of these projects positively impacted the environment, reduced GHG emissions, or both. The program is continuing for a third year with a new and improved course in the fall. Taking into account suggestions from previous courses, this new course hopes to focus more on the climate issues that are particularly pressing in southeastern Nebraska.

Microbial Decomposers Not Constrained by Climate History Along a Mediterranean Climate Gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, N. R.; Khalili, B.; Martiny, J. B. H.; Allison, S. D.

2017-12-01

The return of organic carbon to the atmosphere through terrestrial decomposition is mediated through the breakdown of complex organic polymers by extracellular enzymes produced by microbial decomposer communities. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. To address this question, we deployed fine-pore nylon mesh "microbial cage" litterbags containing grassland litter with and without local inoculum across five sites in southern California, spanning a gradient of 10.3-22.8° C in mean annual temperature and 100-400+ mm mean annual precipitation. Litterbags were deployed in October 2014 and collected four times over the course of 14 months. Recovered litter was assayed for mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzymes (Vmax and Km­), and enzyme temperature sensitivities. We hypothesized that grassland litter would decompose most rapidly in the grassland site, and that access to local microbial communities would enhance litter decomposition rates and microbial activity in the other sites along the gradient. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbes were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions. Although we observed a strong correlation between bacterial biomass and mass loss across the gradient, litter that was inoculated with local microbial communities lost less mass despite having greater bacterial biomass and potentially accumulating more microbial residues. Our results suggest that microbial community composition may not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system. However, there may be community constraints on decomposition if climate change alters litter chemistry, a

Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storch, H. von.

1994-01-01

Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

Climate Literacy Ambassadors

Science.gov (United States)

Ackerman, S. A.; Mooney, M. E.

2011-12-01

The Climate Literacy Ambassadors program is a collaborative effort to advance climate literacy led by the Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. With support from NASA, CIMSS is coordinating a three-tiered program to train G6-12 teachers to be Ambassadors of Climate Literacy in their schools and communities. The complete training involves participation at a teacher workshop combined with web-based professional development content around Global and Regional Climate Change. The on-line course utilizes e-learning technology to clarify graphs and concepts from the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policy Makers with content intricately linked to the Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. Educators who take the course for credit can develop lesson plans or opt for a project of their choosing. This session will showcase select lesson plans and projects, ranging from a district-wide action plan that engaged dozens of teachers to Ambassadors volunteering at the Aldo Leopold Climate Change Nature Center to a teacher who tested a GLOBE Student Climate Research Campaign (SCRC) learning project with plans to participate in the SCRC program. Along with sharing successes from the CIMSS Climate Literacy Ambassadors project, we will share lessons learned related to the challenges of sustaining on-line virtual educator communities.

Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the

Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Southeast Asia ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

This project will endeavor to meet this need by measuring vulnerability to climate change in selected communities; mapping each community's vulnerability to climate change; analyzing the social vulnerability of local communities to climate change; identifying locally appropriate adaptation options; conducting an economic ...

Climate change and human health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

2005-01-01

In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

Differences in plankton community structure and carbon cycling along a climate gradient from the Greenland Ice Sheet to offshore waters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arendt, K.E.; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; Rysgaard, S.

Huge differences in plankton community structures and biomasses are observed along a climate gradient from the Greenland Ice Sheet to offshore waters at the West Greenland coast. The offshore region has a high biomass of copepods dominated by Calanus spp., which are capable of consuming 55....... Protozooplankton accounts for 20-38% of the carbon turnover in the offshore and inland areas. However, protozooplankton like copepods has low ability to turn over the primary production close to the Ice Sheet. Increased run of from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to global warming could displace the existing climate...... gradient. This would have a profound influence on the future plankton community structure as well as the energy transfer to higher trophic levels in Arctic coastal ecosystems....

Climatic and ecological drivers of euphausiid community structure vary spatially in the Barents Sea: relationships from a long time series (1952-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emma Lvovna Orlova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Euphausiids play an important role in transferring energy from ephemeral primary producers to fish, seabirds, and marine mammals in the Barents Sea ecosystem. Climatic impacts have been suggested to occur at all levels of the Barents Sea food-web, but adequate exploration of these phenomena on ecologically relevant spatial scales has not been integrated sufficiently. We used a time-series of euphausiid abundance data spanning 58 years, one of the longest biological time-series in the Arctic, to explore qualitative and quantitative relationships among climate, euphausiids, and their predators, and how these parameters vary spatially in the Barents Sea. We detected four main hydrographic regions, each with distinct patterns of interannual variability in euphausiid abundance and community structure. Assemblages varied primarily in the relative abundance of Thysanoessa inermis versus T. raschii, or T. inermis versus T. longicaudata and Meganyctiphanes norvegica. Climate proxies and the abundance of capelin or cod explained 30-60% of the variability in euphausiid abundance in each region. Climate also influenced patterns of variability in euphausiid community structure, but correlations were generally weaker. Advection of boreal euphausiid taxa from the Norwegian Sea is clearly more prominent in warmer years than in colder years, and interacts with seasonal fish migrations to help explain spatial differences in primary drivers of euphausiid community structure. Non-linear effects of predators were common, and must be considered more carefully if a mechanistic understanding of the ecosystem is to be achieved. Quantitative relationships among euphausiid abundance, climate proxies, and predator stock-sizes derived from these time series are valuable for ecological models being used to predict impacts of climate change on the Barents Sea ecosystem, and how the system should be managed.

Safety climate in the federal fire management community: Influences of organizational, environmental, group, and individual characteristics (Abstract)

Science.gov (United States)

Brooke Baldauf McBride; Anne E. Black

2012-01-01

This study examined the effects of organizational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate in the US federal fire management community (HRO Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity). Multiple analyses of variance revealed that all types of characteristics had a significant effect on...

Climate Generation: Advancing Climate Action through Education, Public Engagement and Youth Leadership

Science.gov (United States)

Poppleton, K. L. I.

2017-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy empowers youth, educators, decision-makers and the public to foster climate literacy and action with the goal of building a more equitable and resilient future. We have over eleven years of experience delivering high-quality K-12 education, public engagement and youth leadership programming, reaching over 75,000 people, 35,000 students and 17,000 educators since 2006. By engaging educators, youth, and the public, we believe that communities can be better positioned to build a resilient and equitable future. For this reason we strive to engage with all these sectors through innovative programming and policy initiatives. Communities are resilient when individuals are connected to each other, resources, and decision-makers. Sharing personal narratives, and highlighting locally relevant solutions are all tools that Climate Generation employs to engage the public. We do this through community wide convenings, as well as sector specific events including at breweries, art fairs, and businesses. Education is also an integral piece for sustained action on climate change. We support educators with a science-based, interdisciplinary model of climate change education that engages all learners, and fosters climate literacy and action. We develop curriculum and offer professional development, encouraging teachers to develop today's students into action-competent citizens. Finally, Climate Generation recognizes the importance of empowering high school youth as a key strategy in transitioning to a just and sustainable future for all. We believe in the inherent genius of youth and know from experience that mentorship fosters powerful youth leadership at the community level, inspiring peers, family members, and local decision-makers to take critical action on climate change solutions. In order to accelerate and implement action on climate change we must take a multi-faceted approach: we are building public will for strong climate action at

Climate science reconsidered

OpenAIRE

Rapley, C.; De Meyer, K.

2014-01-01

There is a gap between the current role of the climate science community and the needs of society. Closing this gap represents a necessary but insufficient step towards improved public discourse and more constructive policy formulation on climate change.

Using Outreach and Engagement Efforts to Inform the Makah Tribe's Climate Adaptation Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, L. K.; Chang, M.; Howk, F.

2017-12-01

The Makah Tribe views climate change as one of the biggest challenges to their natural resource management, threatening their livelihoods, economy, and culture. As part of their work towards climate adaptation planning, the Makah Tribal Council and tribal natural resource managers prioritized early community outreach and engagement efforts in order to accomplish three goals: continually update and inform the tribal community about the Tribe's climate adaptation efforts; gather community input and priorities for the Makah Climate Adaptation Plan; and provide a series of targeted educational events to inform the tribal community about projected climate change impacts to our resources. Our first community climate event, the Makah Climate Change Awareness Dinner, was held on February 8, 2017. At this event, we provided an overview of the Makah Tribe's Climate Vulnerability Assessment and administered an initial climate survey that gathered information regarding community members' observed environmental changes, knowledge about climate change and impacts, and any concerns and priorities to include in the Tribe's adaptation plan. We developed a framework for incorporating community engagement into climate adaptation planning and used results of our community survey to ensure community concerns were being addressed in the plan in addition to risks identified in western science. We also used survey results to inform a series of educational events to address knowledge gaps in the community and requested topics. These are two of next steps that the Makah Tribe is pursuing towards climate adaptation planning.

A Global Assessment on Climate Research Engaging Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Recommendations for Quality Standards of Research Practice in Indigenous Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Davíd-Chavez, D. M.; Gavin, M. C.

2017-12-01

Indigenous communities worldwide have maintained their own knowledge systems for millennia informed through careful observation of dynamics of environmental changes. Withstanding centuries of challenges to their rights to maintain and practice these knowledge systems, Indigenous peoples continually speak to a need for quality standards for research in their communities. Although, international and Indigenous peoples' working groups emphasize Indigenous knowledge systems and the communities who hold them as critical resources for understanding and adapting to climate change, there has yet to be a comprehensive, evidence based analysis into how diverse knowledge systems are integrated in scientific studies. Do current research practices challenge or support Indigenous communities in their efforts to maintain and appropriately apply their knowledge systems? This study addresses this question using a systematic literature review and meta-analysis assessing levels of Indigenous community participation and decision-making in all stages of the research process (initiation, design, implementation, analysis, dissemination). Assessment is based on reported quality indicators such as: outputs that serve the community, ethical guidelines in practice (free, prior, and informed consent and intellectual property rights), and community access to findings. These indicators serve to identify patterns between levels of community participation and quality standards in practice. Meta-analysis indicates most climate studies practice an extractive model in which Indigenous knowledge systems are co-opted with minimal participation or decision-making authority from communities who hold them. Few studies report outputs that directly serve Indigenous communities, ethical guidelines in practice, or community access to findings. Studies reporting the most quality indicators were initiated in mutual agreement between Indigenous communities and outside researchers or by communities themselves

NCAR High-resolution Land Data Assimilation System and Its Recent Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, F.; Manning, K.; Barlage, M.; Gochis, D.; Tewari, M.

2008-05-01

A High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) has been developed at NCAR to meet the need for high-resolution initial conditions of land state (soil moisture and temperature) by today's numerical weather prediction models coupled to a land surface model such as the WRF/Noah coupled modeling system. Intended for conterminous US application, HRLDAS uses observed hourly 4-km national precipitation analysis and satellite-derived surface-solar-downward radiation to drive, in uncoupled mode, the Noah land surface model to simulate long-term evolution of soil state. The advantage of HRLDAS is its use of 1-km resolution land-use and soil texture maps and 4-km rainfall data. As a result, it is able to capture fine-scale heterogeneity at the surface and in the soil. The ultimate goal of HRLDAS development is to characterize soil moisture/temperature and vegetation variability at small scales (~4km) over large areas to provide improved initial land and vegetation conditions for the WRF/Noah coupled model. Hence, HRLDAS is configured after the WRF/Noah coupled model configuration to ensure the consistency in model resolution, physical configuration (e.g., terrain height), soil model, and parameters between the uncoupled soil initialization system and its coupled forecast counterpart. We will discuss various characteristics of HRLDAS, including its spin-up and sensitivity to errors in forcing data. We will describe recent enhancement in terms of hydrological modeling and the use of remote sensing data. We will discuss recent applications of HRLDAS for flood forecast, agriculture, and arctic land system.

Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: a state-of-the-knowledge review

Science.gov (United States)

Guy R. McPherson; Jake F. Weltzin

2000-01-01

This review evaluates the effects and importance of disturbance and climate change on plant community dynamics in the United States/Mexico borderlands region. Our primary focus is on knowledge of physiognomic-level change in grasslands and woodlands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Changes in vegetation physiognomy have broad implications for...

Knowledge and perception about climate change and human health: findings from a baseline survey among vulnerable communities in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Azim, Syed; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-03-15

Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change (CC). A basic understanding of public perception on vulnerability, attitude and the risk in relation to CC and health will provide strategic directions for government policy, adaptation strategies and development of community-based guidelines. The objective of this study was to collect community-based data on peoples' knowledge and perception about CC and its impact on health. In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken among 6720 households of 224 enumeration areas of rural villages geographically distributed in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh, with total population of 19,228,598. Thirty households were selected randomly from each enumeration area using the household listing provided by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Information was collected from all the 6720 research participants using a structured questionnaire. An observation checklist was used by the interviewers to collect household- and community-related information. In addition, we selected the head of each household as the eligible participant for an interview. Evidence of association between sociodemographic variables and knowledge of CC was explored by cross-tabulation and measured using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were used to further explore the predictors of knowledge. The study revealed that the residents of the rural communities selected for this study largely come from a low socioeconomic background: only 9.6% had postsecondary education or higher, the majority worked as day labourer or farmer (60%), and only 10% earned a monthly income above BDT 12000 (equivalent to US $150 approx.). The majority of the participants (54.2%) had some knowledge about CC but 45.8% did not (p change of climate (83.2%). Among all the respondents (n = 6720), 94.5% perceived change in climate and extreme weather events. Most of them (91.9%) observed change in rainfall patterns in the last 10 years, and 97

Champagne-Ardenne Climate-Air-Energy Plan + Synthesis + Wind energy regional plan + Report and conclusion of the consultation and dialogue organised from January 20 to March 20, 2012. Territorial Climate-Energy Plan Coeur d'Ardenne urban community, Sedan region community of communes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guillot, Michel; Bachy, Jean-Paul

2012-05-01

After a recall of stakes and challenges related to climate, air and energy, an introduction presents the Champagne-Ardenne Regional Climate Air Energy Plan (PCAER), recalls national and international commitments (struggle against greenhouse effect, improvement of air quality, development of renewable energies, energy demand management), describes the PCAER elaboration process, indicates its legal status and value, and its relationship with other schemes and plans. The next part proposes a situational analysis with a presentation of the territory (economy, geography, demography, organisation), an assessment of its final energy consumption, and an assessment of potential energy savings, energy efficiency improvements and energy demand management. It proposes an assessment of renewable and recovery energy production and of its potential development, an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and of atmospheric pollutant emissions, an assessment of air quality, and a discussion of territory vulnerability to climate change. The next part is a more prospective one as it defines orientations for land and urban development, mobility, good transport, agriculture and viticulture, forest and wood valorisation, buildings, renewable and recovery energies, water, natural, technological and health risks, the tertiary sector, industry, communities, and governance for the PCAER implementation. A second document is a synthesis of this PCAER and proposes an overview of the situation and challenges, of objectives to be reached, and the definition of a roadmap, with a focus on the regional scheme for wind energy (SRE). This last one discusses the wind energy development (legal and regulatory framework, role in regional development, issues related to land development, dialogue, impacts), proposes an overview of the different types of constraints and servitudes (environmental, technical, heritage, landscape, and so on). The next document reports the consultation and dialogue process and

Safety climate in the US federal wildland fire management community: influences of organizational, environmental, group, and individual characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Anne E. Black; Brooke Baldauf McBride

2013-01-01

This study examined the effects of organisational, environmental, group and individual characteristics on five components of safety climate (High Reliability Organising Practices, Leadership, Group Culture, Learning Orientation and Mission Clarity) in the US federal wildland fire management community. Of particular interest were differences between perceptions based on...

Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

So Close Yet So Far Apart: Contrasting Climate Change Perceptions in Two “Neighboring” Coastal Communities on Aotearoa New Zealand’s Coromandel Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Schneider

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Coastal hazard risk, compounded by climate change, is escalating. Efforts to address this challenge are fraught and ‘success’ is elusive. We focus on this impasse and recommend ways to improve understanding, reduce risk and enable adaptation. Two Aotearoa New Zealand coastal communities, Mercury Bay and Kennedy Bay, on the Coromandel Peninsula, serve as case studies. Ethnographic fieldwork underpins this analysis. Despite close proximity, local perceptions are ‘worlds apart’. Poor understanding of climate change, and preoccupation with everyday issues, is commonplace. Moreover, there are countervailing community narratives. In Kennedy Bay, which is undeveloped and Māori, climate change is not a manifest concern. Local narratives are rooted in Māori culture and under the shadow of colonization, which shapes contemporary perceptions, practices and prospects. In Mercury Bay, a rapidly developing resort town, seashore property owners demand protection works—ignoring sea-level rise and privileging short-term private interests. Despite laudable regulatory provisions, static responses to dynamic risks prevail and proactive adaptation is absent. Recommendations are made to improve understanding about local cultural-social-ecological characteristics, climate change and adaption. Enabling leadership and capability-building are needed to institutionalize proactive adaptation. Strengthening Māori self-determination (rangatiratanga and guardianship (kaitiakitanga, and local democracy, are key to mobilizing and sustaining community-based adaptation governance.

How will coral reef fish communities respond to climate-driven disturbances? Insight from landscape-scale perturbations.

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, Thomas C; Brooks, Andrew J; Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Washburn, Libe; Bernardi, Giacomo

2014-09-01

Global climate change is rapidly altering disturbance regimes in many ecosystems including coral reefs, yet the long-term impacts of these changes on ecosystem structure and function are difficult to predict. A major ecosystem service provided by coral reefs is the provisioning of physical habitat for other organisms, and consequently, many of the effects of climate change on coral reefs will be mediated by their impacts on habitat structure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand the independent and combined effects of coral mortality and loss of physical habitat on reef-associated biota. Here, we use a unique series of events affecting the coral reefs around the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia to differentiate between the impacts of coral mortality and the degradation of physical habitat on the structure of reef fish communities. We found that, by removing large amounts of physical habitat, a tropical cyclone had larger impacts on reef fish communities than an outbreak of coral-eating sea stars that caused widespread coral mortality but left the physical structure intact. In addition, the impacts of declining structural complexity on reef fish assemblages accelerated as structure became increasingly rare. Structure provided by dead coral colonies can take up to decades to erode following coral mortality, and, consequently, our results suggest that predictions based on short-term studies are likely to grossly underestimate the long-term impacts of coral decline on reef fish communities.

Using a community-driven approach to identify local forest and climate change priorities in Teslin, Yukon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joleen Timko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The likelihood of addressing the complex environmental, economic, and social/cultural issues associated with local climate change impacts is enhanced when collaborative partnerships with local people are established. Using a community-centered approach in the Teslin region of Canada’s Yukon Territory, we utilized our research skills to respond to local needs for information by facilitating both an internal community process to clarify traditional and local knowledge, values, and perceptions on locally identified priorities, while gathering external information to enable local people to make sound decisions. Specifically, we sought to clarify local perceptions surrounding climate change impacts on fire risk and wildlife habitat, and the potential adaptation strategies appropriate and feasible within the Teslin Tlingit Traditional Territory. This paper provides a characterization of the study region and our project team; provides background on the interview and data collection process; presents our key results; and discusses the importance of our findings and charts a way forward for our continued work with the people in the Teslin region. This approach presents an excellent opportunity to help people holistically connect a range of local values, including fire risk mitigation, habitat enhancement, economic development, and enhanced social health.

Whole Community Resilience: Engaging Multiple Sectors with the Coastal Community Resilience Index and the Climate and Resilience Community of Practice in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Sempier, T.

2017-12-01

Communicating risk due to flooding, sea level rise, storm surge, and other natural hazards is a complex task when attempting to build resilience in coastal communities. There are a number of challenges related to preparing for, responding to, and recovering from coastal storms. Successful resilience planning must include a wide range of sectors including, but not limited to local government, business, non-profit, religious, academia, and healthcare. Years of experience working with communities in the Gulf of Mexico has helped create a process that is both inclusive and effective at bringing the right people to the table and gaining momentum towards resilience efforts. The Coastal Community Resilience Index (CRI), a self-assessment for community leaders, has been implemented in 54 Gulf communities with funding that provides small grant awards to help communities take action to address gaps and vulnerabilities identified in the assessment process. To maintain momentum with resilience actions, the Gulf Climate and Resilience Community of Practice (CoP) encourages local municipality participants to share lessons learned and best practices from their implementation projects in an annual symposium. Recently, both graduate and undergraduate students have been exposed to the CRI and CoP as avenues to work through solutions to complex problems at the local level. In addition, a new generation of high school students has been introduced to the CRI. Their engagement in the process is building a more informed citizenry that will take on the leadership and decision-making roles in the future. Investing in multiple age groups and sectors through the CRI and CoP is building capacity for whole community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico. This presentation will focus on methods that have been successful in the Gulf of Mexico for creating effective change in local municipalities towards resilience actions. Discussion will include decision support tools for engaging local

Climate-vegetation relationship: adaptations of jarillal community to the semiarid climate. Lihué Calel National Park, province of La Pampa, Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valeria Soledad Duval

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The study of vegetation from the Geography perspective focuses on the analysis of the spatial distribution and on the factors affecting it. One of these factors is the climate, which determines the characteristics of the vegetation and, on a larger scale, of the communities. The aim of this paper is to analyze the climate-vegetation relationship by studying adaptations of the jarillal community regarding the semiarid climate in the Lihué Calel National Park, Argentina. Therefore, this contribution is concerned with the knowledge of the characteristics of the environment in order to understand how vegetation responds to certain phenomena, so management of protected areas will be more suitable. Lihué Calel National Park is a national protected area located in the south-center of La Pampa province, Argentina. According to Cabrera (1976 the area belongs to the floristic province of “monte” and the climate is warm and dry. In the interest to achieve the goals of this paper, Thornthwaite and Mather´s water balance was done. The data was collected from a weather station that belongs to the national park, for the period 1995-2010. Emberger›s pluviothermic coefficient, Lang´s rainfall index, De Martonne´s aridity index and Currey´s continentality index were analyzed. In addition, ten stands or plots of vegetation were placed to determine the floristic composition and the vegetation physiognomy. Then, plants species were identified as individuals and their adaptive responses were also analyzed. In conclusion, the survey verified that semi-arid climate conditions determine the morphology and the appearance of jarillal. Climate analysis shows that for the period 1995-2010 the average annual temperature is 16.2° C and reveals that thermal summers and winters are well differentiated. Large water deficit is defined, because water balance indicates that the evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during every month of the year. According to

Climate Change and Thawing Permafrost in Two Iñupiaq Communities of Alaska's Arctic: Observations, Implications, and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Woodward, A.; Kofinas, G.

2013-12-01

For thousands of years the Iñupiat of northern Alaska have relied on ecosystems underlain by permafrost for material and cultural resources. As permafrost thaws across the Arctic, these social-ecological systems are changing rapidly. Community-based research and extensive local knowledge of Iñupiaq villagers offer unique and valuable contributions to understanding permafrost change and its implications for humans. We partnered with two Iñupiaq communities in Alaska's Arctic to investigate current and potential effects of thawing permafrost on social-ecological systems. Anaktuvuk Pass is situated on thaw-stable consolidated gravel in the Brooks Range, while Selawik rests on ice-rich permafrost in Beringia lowland tundra. Using the transdisciplinary approach of resilience theory and mixed geophysical and ethnographic methods, we measured active layer thaw depths and documented local knowledge about climate and permafrost change. Thaw depths were greater overall in Selawik. Residents of both communities reported a variety of changes in surface features, hydrology, weather, flora, and fauna that they attribute to thawing permafrost and / or climate change. Overall, Selawik residents described more numerous and extreme examples of such changes, expressed higher degrees of certainty that change is occurring, and anticipated more significant and negative implications for their way of life than did residents of Anaktuvuk Pass. Of the two villages, Selawik faces greater and more immediate challenges to the resilience of its social-ecological system as permafrost thaws.

An Accelerated Path to Assisting At-Risk Communities Adapt to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Socci, A.

2010-12-01

countries need, what and where the opportunities are to assist countries and communities in adapting to climate change, and how might one get started? One of the most effective and efficient ways of identifying community/country needs, assistance opportunities and community/country entry points is to search the online archive of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) that many of the least developed countries have already assembled in conformance with the UNFCCC process. Better still perhaps, consider focusing on community-scale assessments and adaptation action plans that have already been compiled by various communities seeking assistance as national plans are unlikely to capture the nuances and variability of community needs. Unlike NAPAs, such plans are not archived in a central location. Yet clearly, community-scale plans in particular, not only represent an assessment of community needs and plans, presumptively crafted by affected communities, but also represent opportunities to align assistance resources and capacity with community needs, providing the basis for engaging affected communities in an accelerated process. Simply stated, take full advantage of the multitude of assessment and planning efforts that communities have already engaged in on their own behalf.

Approaches to 30 Percent Energy Savings at the Community Scale in the Hot-Humid Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas-Rees, S. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Beal, D. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Martin, E. [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)

2013-03-01

BA-PIRC has worked with several community-scale builders within the hot humid climate zone to improve performance of production, or community scale, housing. Tommy Williams Homes (Gainesville, FL), Lifestyle Homes (Melbourne, FL), and Habitat for Humanity (various locations, FL) have all been continuous partners of the Building America program and are the subjects of this report to document achievement of the Building America goal of 30% whole house energy savings packages adopted at the community scale. Key aspects of this research include determining how to evolve existing energy efficiency packages to produce replicable target savings, identifying what builders' technical assistance needs are for implementation and working with them to create sustainable quality assurance mechanisms, and documenting the commercial viability through neutral cost analysis and market acceptance. This report documents certain barriers builders overcame and the approaches they implemented in order to accomplish Building America (BA) Program goals that have not already been documented in previous reports.

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

NCL - a workhorse for data analysis and visualization in climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Meier-Fleischer, Karin; Boettinger, Michael; Haley, Mary

2015-04-01

Coupled earth system models are used for simulating the climate system. In the context of international climate assessment and model intercomparison projects, extensive simulation data sets are produced and have to be analyzed. Supercomputers and storage systems are used over years to perform the simulations, but the data analysis usually takes even more time. Different classes of tools are used for the analysis and visualization of these big data sets. In this PICO, we focus on NCL (NCAR Command Language), an interpreted language developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. NCL allows performing standard analysis operations and producing graphical output in batch mode loosely coupled with the simulations. Thus, for visual monitoring of their simulations, many of DKRZ's users have integrated NCL into their modeling workflows. We present application examples from the tutorial we have developed that focus on typical visualizations of climate model data. Since NCL supports rectilinear, curvilinear and even unstructured grids, it is well prepared to facilitate the visualization of today's climate model data without prior interpolation. NCL includes many features common to modern programming languages, such as types, variables, operators, expressions, conditional statements, loops, and functions and procedures. It provides more than 600 built-in functions specifically for climate model data, facilitating analysis of scalar and vector quantities as well as numerous state-of-the-art 2D visualization methods (contour lines, filled areas, markers, wind arrows or barbs, weather symbols and many more). Important for Earth scientists is also NCL's capability to display data together with the corresponding map background and a choice of the map projection.

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

Science.gov (United States)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

Ask the climate question : adapting to climate change impacts in urban regions

Science.gov (United States)

2009-06-01

As the first responders to the impacts of climate change, local governments play a crucial role in implementing the actions and strategies that will reduce their communities vulnerability to the dangers of a changing climate. This type of action o...

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Status and results

Science.gov (United States)

Arritt, R.

2009-04-01

NARCCAP is an international program that is generating projections of climate change for the U.S., Canada, and northern Mexico at decision-relevant regional scales. NARCCAP uses multiple limited-area regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The use of multiple regional and global models allows us to investigate the uncertainty in model responses to future emissions (here, the A2 SRES scenario). The project also includes global time-slice experiments at the same discretization (50 km) using the GFDL atmospheric model (AM2.1) and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3). Phase I of the experiment uses the regional models nested within reanalysis in order to establish uncertainty attributable to the RCMs themselves. Phase II of the project then nests the RCMs within results from the current and future runs of the AOGCMs to explore the cascade of uncertainty from the global to the regional models. Phase I has been completed and the results to be shown include findings that spectral nudging is beneficial in some regions but not in others. Phase II is nearing completion and some preliminary results will be shown.

Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

2004-08-01

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

2017-07-01

Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

Science.gov (United States)

The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: climate change consequences for soil water resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmquist, Kyle A; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K

2016-09-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: (1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems, and (2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT, to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, whereas changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer, drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big

Mid-latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, Willliam K.

2016-01-01

In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big

Constraints on trait combinations explain climatic drivers of biodiversity: the importance of trait covariance in community assembly.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwyer, John M; Laughlin, Daniel C

2017-07-01

Trade-offs maintain diversity and structure communities along environmental gradients. Theory indicates that if covariance among functional traits sets a limit on the number of viable trait combinations in a given environment, then communities with strong multidimensional trait constraints should exhibit low species diversity. We tested this prediction in winter annual plant assemblages along an aridity gradient using multilevel structural equation modelling. Univariate and multivariate functional diversity measures were poorly explained by aridity, and were surprisingly poor predictors of community richness. By contrast, the covariance between maximum height and seed mass strengthened along the aridity gradient, and was strongly associated with richness declines. Community richness had a positive effect on local neighbourhood richness, indicating that climate effects on trait covariance indirectly influence diversity at local scales. We present clear empirical evidence that declines in species richness along gradients of environmental stress can be due to increasing constraints on multidimensional phenotypes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

2011-12-01

The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

Climate Change | Page 13 | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Read more about Reducing the Risk of Water Pollution in Vulnerable Coastal Communities of Cartagena, Colombia: Responding to Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Adaptation to Climate Change in two Rural Communities on the Plains and in the Mountains of Morocco. Language English. Read more ...

Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Johanna; Marshall, Paul

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Climate change is now recognised as the greatest long-term threat to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Managers face a future in which the impacts of climate change on tropical marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Further degradation is inevitable as the climate continues to change but the extent of the decline will depend on the rate and magnitude of climate change and the resilience of the ecosystem. Changes to the ecosystem have implications for the industries and regional communities that depend on the GBR. Climate projections for the GBR region include increasing air and sea temperatures, ocean acidification, nutrient enrichment (via changes in rainfall), altered light levels, more extreme weather events, changes to ocean circulation and sea level rise. Impacts have already been observed, with severe coral bleaching events in 1998 and 2002, and mass mortalities of seabirds linked to anomalously warm summer conditions. Climate change also poses significant threats to the industries and communities that depend on the GBR ecosystem, both directly and indirectly through loss of natural resources; industries such as recreational and commercial fishing, and tourism, which contributes to a regional tourism industry worth $6.1 billion (Access Economics 2005). A vulnerability assessment undertaken by leading experts in climate and marine science identified climate sensitivities for GBR species, habitats, key processes, GBR industries and communities (Johnson and Marshall 2007). This information has been used to develop a Climate Change Action Plan for the GBR. The Action Plan is a five-year program aimed at facilitating targeted science, building a resilient ecosystem, assisting adaptation of industries and communities, and reducing climate footprints. The Action Plan identifies strategies to review current management arrangements and raise awareness of the issue in order to work towards a resilient ecosystem. Integral to

Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Katzenberger, John [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Arnott, James [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States); Wright, Alyson [Aspen Global Change Inst., Basalt, CO (United States)

2014-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generation of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semi-Annual Progress Report for the Period April 1, 2009 through September 30, 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Middleton, D. E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

2009-10-15

This report summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2009 through September 30, 2009. It includes discussion of highlights, overall progress, period goals, collaborations, papers, and presentations. To learn more about our project, and to find previous reports, please visit the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) website. This report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC program management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) program management, national and international collaborators and stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), the SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science, the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), and other wide-ranging climate model evaluation activities). During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET team continued its efforts to complete software components needed for the ESG Gateway and Data Node. These components include: Data Versioning, Data Replication, DataMover-Lite (DML) and Bulk Data Mover (BDM), Metrics, Product Services, and Security, all joining together to form ESG-CET's first beta release. The launch of the beta release is scheduled for late October with the installation of ESG Gateways at NCAR and LLNL/PCMDI. Using the developed ESG Data Publisher, the ESG II CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) data holdings - approximately 35 TB - will be among the first datasets to be published into the new ESG enterprise system. In addition, the NCAR's ESG II data holdings will also be published into the new system - approximately 200 TB. This period also saw the testing of the ESG Data Node at various collaboration sites, including: the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, the University of Tokyo

Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

Science.gov (United States)

Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.