WorldWideScience

Sample records for multi-decadal scale variability

  1. Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

    2006-12-01

    On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

  2. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  3. North American Rocky Mountain Hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B.; Anderson, L.; Berkelhammer, M. B.; Barron, J. A.; Steinman, B. A.; Abbott, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    A network of western North American lake sediment isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) developed during the past decade provides substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of precipitation variability during the Holocene. We present an overview of the eighteen lake carbonate-δ18O records located in the North American Rocky Mountains with a new compilation of modern lake water isotope measurements to characterize their sensitivity to variations in precipitation-δ18O and fractionation effects by evaporation. Comparative analysis of the carbonate-δ18O records that reflect precipitation isotope (δ18O) values (i.e., precipitation "isometers") indicates a sequence of time-varying in-phase and antiphase patterns between northern and southern regions during the Holocene that provide evidence for a highly non-stationary influence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. We identify a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole, which was sustained for ~2000 years between ~3.5 and 1.5 ka. The dipole contrasts with divergent earlier Holocene patterns and appears to indicate the onset of linkages between northern and tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics as we know them today. These observations are informed by previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O. Further investigation of short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scale patterns are needed to improve our understanding of the processes that 1) drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability, and 2) cause varying internal ocean-atmosphere responses to external climate forcing.

  4. Multi-decadal scale variability in the eastern Baltic cod fishery 1550-1860 - Evidence and causes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Bager, M.; Ojaveer, H.

    2007-01-01

    in the Baltic as developed and implemented by organisations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), the nine coastal countries and the European Union includes recovery of the cod population, a reduction in nutrient...... is unknown, as is the relative role of fishing, climate variability/regimes, eutrophication and reduction of marine mammal predator populations. We have begun to investigate whether historical fisheries information (landings, effort, distribution) from before the 1880s is available in Baltic archives...

  5. Multi-decadal Variability of the Wind Power Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner Bossi, Nicolas; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Prieto, Luis; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2014-05-01

    The knowledge of the long-term wind power variability is essential to provide a realistic outlook on the power output during the lifetime of a planned wind power project. In this work, the Power Output (Po) of a market wind turbine is simulated with a daily resolution for the period 1871-2009 at two different locations in Spain, one at the Central Iberian Plateau and another at the Gibraltar Strait Area. This is attained through a statistical downscaling of the daily wind conditions. It implements a Greedy Algorithm as classificator of a geostrophic-based wind predictor, which is derived by considering the SLP daily field from the 56 ensemble members of the longest homogeneous reanalysis available (20CR, 1871-2009). For calibration and validation purposes we use 10 years of wind observations (the predictand) at both sites. As a result, a series of 139 annual wind speed Probability Density Functions (PDF) are obtained, with a good performance in terms of wind speed uncertainty reduction (average daily wind speed MAE=1.48 m/s). The obtained centennial series allow to investigate the multi-decadal variability of wind power from different points of view. Significant periodicities around the 25-yr frequency band, as well as long-term linear trends are detected at both locations. In addition, a negative correlation is found between annual Po at both locations, evidencing the differences in the dynamical mechanisms ruling them (and possible complementary behavior). Furthermore, the impact that the three leading large-scale circulation patterns over Iberia (NAO, EA and SCAND) exert over wind power output is evaluated. Results show distinct (and non-stationary) couplings to these forcings depending on the geographical position and season or month. Moreover, significant non-stationary correlations are observed with the slow varying Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index for both case studies. Finally, an empirical relationship is explored between the annual Po and the

  6. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-01-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the

  7. Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lesleigh; Berkelhammer, Max; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-02-01

    Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean-atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north-south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north-south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean-atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive

  8. Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

  9. Synchronous multi-decadal climate variability of the whole Pacific areas revealed in tree rings since 1567

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

  10. Inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in prairie water resources over the past millennium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauchyn, D.

    2008-01-01

    In the Prairie Provinces, declining levels have been recently recorded for various rivers and lakes, and further reductions are projected. These trends reflect human impact in terms of increasing water consumption and possibly anthropogenic climate change. From the coupling of hydrological models and climate change scenarios, researchers have projected lower future summer flows as global warming brings shorter warmer winters and longer and generally drier summers to western Canada. However, the detection and interpretation of trends from gauge records and model outputs are constrained by the relatively short perspective of decades and the uncertainties associated with projecting climate change and its impacts on hydrological regimes. A longer perspective on inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in water resources is available from moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies. We have established a dense network of low elevation chronologies spanning the headwaters of the Saskatchewan, Missouri, Churchill and Mackenzie River basins. Standardized tree-ring width for a large sample of trees and sites is a strong regional signal of annual and seasonal hydroclimate, and an especially good proxy of low water levels. Proxy streamflow records, up to 800 years in length, show quasi-periodic variability at inter-annual to multi-decadal scales that correspond to the tempo of sea-surface temperature anomalies. The industrial sponsors of our research, Manitoba Hydro and EPCOR, anticipate the use of our tree-ring reconstructions for informing forecasts of future water supplies and planning adaptation to climate change. Engineers from these companies, and more than 50 other water managers and planners from the Prairie Provinces, attended a workshop in March 2008 to explore potential applications of paleo-hydrological records to water resource management. (author)

  11. Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

  12. Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, J J; Hargreaves, J C; Annan, J D; Abe-Ouchi, A

    2012-01-01

    The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability. (letter)

  13. Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

    2005-12-01

    Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

  14. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H

    2011-01-01

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  15. Multi-decadal modulation of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship by Indian Ocean variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Sen Gupta, Alexander; Li Yue; Taschetto, Andrea S; England, Matthew H, E-mail: c.ummenhofer@unsw.edu.au [Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    The role of leading modes of Indo-Pacific climate variability is investigated for modulation of the strength of the Indian summer monsoon during the period 1877-2006. In particular, the effect of Indian Ocean conditions on the relationship between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is explored. Using an extended classification for ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events for the past 130 years and reanalyses, we have expanded previous interannual work to show that variations in Indian Ocean conditions modulate the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship also on decadal timescales. El Nino events are frequently accompanied by a significantly reduced Indian monsoon and widespread drought conditions due to anomalous subsidence associated with a shift in the descending branch of the zonal Walker circulation. However, for El Nino events that co-occur with positive IOD (pIOD) events, Indian Ocean conditions act to counter El Nino's drought-inducing subsidence by enhancing moisture convergence over the Indian subcontinent, with an average monsoon season resulting. Decadal modulations of the frequency of independent and combined El Nino and pIOD events are consistent with a strengthened El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship observed at the start of the 20th century and the apparent recent weakening of the El Nino-Indian monsoon relationship.

  16. CCSM3 simulation of pacific multi-decadal climate variability: the role of subpolar North Pacific Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong, Y; Liu, Z

    2008-01-01

    Previous analyses of the CCSM3 standard integration have revealed pronounced multidecadal variability in the Pacific climate system. The purpose of the present work is to investigate the physical mechanism underlying the Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) using specifically designed sensitivity experiments. A novel mechanism is advanced, characterized by a crucial role of the subpolar North Pacific Ocean. The multidecadal signal in ocean temperature and salinity fields is found to originate from the subsurface of the subpolar North Pacific, as result of the wave adjustment to the preceding basin-scale wind curl forcing. The multidecadal signal then ascends to the surface and is amplified through local temperature/salinity convective feedback. Along the southward Oyashio current, the anomaly travels to the Kuroshio Extension (KOE) region and is further intensified through a similar convective feedback in addition to the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback. The temperature anomaly in the KOE is able to feed back to the large-scale atmospheric circulation, inducing wind curl anomaly over the subpolar region, which in turn generates anomalous oceanic circulation and causes temperature/salinty variability in the subpolar subsurface. Thereby, a closed loop of PMV is established, in the form of a subpolar delayed oscillator

  17. Sea-ice cover anomalies in the Arctic Basin associated with atmospheric variability from multi-decadal trends to intermittent quasi-biennial oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoyoshi Ikeda

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Arctic Ocean sea ice has been diminishing since 1970, as shown by National Snow and Ice Data Center data. In addition to decadal variability, low ice anomalies in the Pacific–Siberian region have been occurring at shorter timescales. The influence of the widely-known Northern Annular Mode (NAM occurs across all seasons. In this study, empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis was applied to sea-level pressure in National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis data for 1960–2007, showing the NAM to be the leading mode of variability and the Arctic Dipole Mode (ADM to be the second leading mode. The ADM changes markedly across seasons. In autumn–winter, it has a pole over Siberia and a pole over Greenland, at opposite signs at a several-year scale, whereas the spring–summer ADM (ADMSS has a pole over Europe and a pole over Canada. In the 1980s, the most influential mode shifted from the NAM to the ADM, when the Pacific sector had low ice cover at a 1-year lag from the positive ADM, which was marked by low pressure over Siberia. In years when the ADMSS was pronounced, it was responsible for distinct ice variability over the East Siberian–Laptev seas. The frequency separation in this study identified the contributions of the ADM and ADMSS. Effects of the latter are difficult to predict since it is intermittent and changes its sign biennially. The ADM and ADMSS should be closely watched in relation to the ongoing ice reduction in the Pacific–Siberian region.

  18. Relação dos sistemas de monção com as variabilidades tropical interanual e multi-decenal Relations of the monsoon systems to the tropical multi-decadal and interannual variabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sâmia Regina Garcia

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available A variabilidade da circulação tropical, com ênfase nos sistemas monçônicos, é examinada usando diversas variáveis para o período de 1948-1999. A componente monçônica do potencial de velocidade em 200 hPa (χ-transiente, o desvio da média anual do desvio da média zonal, é o parâmetro chave usado para obter os modos monçônicos. A análise de Funções Ortogonais Empíricas (EOF do χ-transiente fornece dois modos separados. O primeiro modo descreve a variabilidade multi-decenal dos sistemas monçônicos da América do Sul e do Pacífico oeste. Esse modo, chamado monçônico multi-decenal (MMD, ocorre por todo o ano e contém a variabilidade multi-decenal relacionada à dinâmica da Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP. O segundo modo descreve as variações interanuais opostas entre a Ásia, África e oceano Índico e a região do oeste dos Estados Unidos, México e Pacífico leste. Esse modo, chamado modo interanual (MIA apresenta algumas similaridades com o modo tropical interanual El Niño - Oscilação Sul. Alguns aspectos desses modos, incluindo sua circulação e características termodinâmicas são discutidas aqui. Finalmente, índices baseados nos padrões das configurações espaciais desses modos são construídos. A eficiência desses índices para fins de monitoramento é analisada. Logo, trata-se de um novo aspecto não proposto em trabalhos anteriores.Tropical circulation variability, with emphasis on the monsoon systems is examined using several variables for the 1948-1999 period. The monsoon component in the 200 hPa velocity potential (transient-χ, the deviation from the annual mean of the zonal deviation field, is the key parameter used here to obtain the monsoon modes. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis of the transient-χ yields two separate modes. The first mode describes the multi-decadal variability of the monsoon systems in South America and in the western Pacific. This mode, called the multi-decadal

  19. Global multi-decadal ocean climate and small-pelagic fish population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tourre, Yves M; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E; White, Warren B

    2007-01-01

    Ocean climate, environmental and biological conditions vary on several spatio-temporal scales. Besides climate change associated with anthropogenic activity, there is growing evidence of a natural global multi-decadal climate signal in the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere climate system. The spatio-temporal evolution of this signal is thus analyzed during the 20th century and compared to the variability of small-pelagic fish landings. It is argued that the low-frequency global ocean environment and plankton ecosystems must be modified such that small-pelagic populations vary accordingly. A small-pelagic global index or fishing 'regime indicator series' (RIS) (i.e. a small-pelagic abundance indicator) is used. RIS is derived from fish landings data in the four main fishing areas in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Global RIS changes phase (from positive to negative values) when SST multi-decadal anomalies are out-of-phase between the eastern Pacific and southern Atlantic. RIS also displays maxima during the mid-30s to early-40s and the late-70s to early-80s when the multi-decadal signal was approximately changing phases (Tourre and White 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L06716). It is recognized that other factors may modulate fish stocks, including anthropogenic predation. Nevertheless it is proposed that variable climate and environment, and the low-frequency 'global synchrony' of small-pelagic landings (Schwartzlose et al 1999 S. Afr. J. Mar. Sci. 21 289-347), could be associated with the multi-decadal changes in global ocean climate conditions

  20. Multi-decadal Arctic sea ice roughness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Kharbouche, S.; Muller, J. P., , Prof; Nolin, A. W.; Petty, A.; Haas, C.; Girard-Ardhuin, F.; Landy, J.

    2017-12-01

    The transformation of Arctic sea ice from mainly perennial, multi-year ice to a seasonal, first-year ice is believed to have been accompanied by a reduction of the roughness of the ice cover surface. This smoothening effect has been shown to (i) modify the momentum and heat transfer between the atmosphere and ocean, (ii) to alter the ice thickness distribution which in turn controls the snow and melt pond repartition over the ice cover, and (iii) to bias airborne and satellite remote sensing measurements that depend on the scattering and reflective characteristics over the sea ice surface topography. We will review existing and novel remote sensing methodologies proposed to estimate sea ice roughness, ranging from airborne LIDAR measurement (ie Operation IceBridge), to backscatter coefficients from scatterometers (ASCAT, QUICKSCAT), to multi angle maging spectroradiometer (MISR), and to laser (Icesat) and radar altimeters (Envisat, Cryosat, Altika, Sentinel-3). We will show that by comparing and cross-calibrating these different products we can offer a consistent multi-mission, multi-decadal view of the declining sea ice roughness. Implications for sea ice physics, climate and remote sensing will also be discussed.

  1. Multi-decadal responses of a cod (Gadus morhua) population to human-induced trophic changes, fishing, and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eero, Margit; MacKenzie, Brian; Köster, Fritz

    2011-01-01

    to changes in fish populations can be analyzed with empirical data. In this study we investigate how climate variability and multiple human impacts (fishing, marine mammal hunting, eutrophication) have affected multi-decadal scale dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century.We document...... significant climate-driven variations in cod recruitment production at multi-annual timescales, which had major impacts on population dynamics and the yields to commercial fisheries. We also quantify the roles of marine mammal predation, eutrophication, and exploitation on the development of the cod...

  2. Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Ocean Active Upper-Layer Heat Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byshev, Vladimir I.; Neiman, Victor G.; Anisimov, Mikhail V.; Gusev, Anatoly V.; Serykh, Ilya V.; Sidorova, Alexandra N.; Figurkin, Alexander L.; Anisimov, Ivan M.

    2017-07-01

    Spatial patterns in multi-decadal variability in upper ocean heat content for the last 60 years are examined using a numerical model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russia (INM Model) and sea water temperature-salinity data from the World Ocean Database (in: Levitus, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66, U.S. Wash.: Gov. Printing Office, 2009). Both the model and the observational data show that the heat content of the Active Upper Layer (AUL) in particular regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans have experienced prominent simultaneous variations on multi-decadal (25-35 years) time scales. These variations are compared earlier revealed climatic alternations in the Northern Atlantic region during the last century (Byshev et al. in Doklady Earth Sci 438(2):887-892, 2011). We found that from the middle of 1970s to the end of 1990s the AUL heat content decreased in several oceanic regions, while the mean surface temperature increased on Northern Hemisphere continents according to IPCC (in: Stocker et al. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). This means that the climate-forcing effect of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in certain energy-active areas determines not only local climatic processes, but also have an influence on global-scale climate phenomena. Here we show that specific regional features of the AUL thermal structure are in a good agreement with climatic conditions on the adjacent continents. Further, the ocean AUL in the five distinctive regions identified in our study have resumed warming in the first decade of this century. By analogy inference from previous climate scenarios, this may signal the onset of more continental climate over mainlands.

  3. A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico

    2018-01-01

    We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.

  4. Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

    2016-02-01

    Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

  5. Decadal summer drought frequency in China: the increasing influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Chengcheng; Yu, Jin-Yi; Chen, Ge

    2014-01-01

    Decadal variations in summer drought events during 1956–2005 are examined over Eastern China to identify their leading variability modes and their linkages to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and global warming. The PDO influence is found to dominate China drought frequency from the 1960s to early 1990s via modulating the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the Mongolian High. The four-pole drought pattern produced by the PDO diminished after the early 1990s, being replaced by a dipolar drought pattern that is produced by the AMO via a Eurasian wave train emanating from North Atlantic to China. The increasing influence of the AMO on China drought since the early 1990s is further shown to be a consequence of global warming. This study indicates that the early 1990s is a time when the Atlantic began to exert a stronger influence on climate over China and even larger part of Asia. (letter)

  6. Carbon and nitrogen elemental and isotopic ratios of filter-feeding bivalves along the French coasts: An assessment of specific, geographic, seasonal and multi-decadal variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briant, Nicolas; Savoye, Nicolas; Chouvelon, Tiphaine; David, Valérie; Rodriguez, Samuel; Charlier, Karine; Sonke, Jeroen E; Chiffoleau, Jean François; Brach-Papa, Christophe; Knoery, Joël

    2018-02-01

    Primary consumers play a key role in coastal ecosystems by transferring organic matter from primary producers to predators. Among them, suspension-feeders, like bivalve molluscs are widely used in trophic web studies. The main goal of this study was to investigate variations of C and N elemental and isotopic ratios in common bivalves (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and C. gigas) at large spatial (i.e. among three coastal regions) and different temporal (i.e. from seasonal to multi-decadal) scales in France, in order to identify potential general or specific patterns and speculate on their drivers. The observed spatial variability was related to the trophic status of the coastal regions (oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea versus meso- to eutrophic English Channel and Atlantic ocean), but not to ecosystem typology (estuaries, versus lagoons versus bays versus littoral systems). Furthermore, it highlighted local specificities in terms of the origin of the POM assimilated by bivalves (e.g., mainly continental POM vs. marine phytoplankton vs. microphytobenthic algae). Likewise, seasonal variability was related both to the reproduction cycle for C/N ratios of Mytilus spp. and to changes in trophic resources for δ 13 C of species located close to river mouth. Multi-decadal evolution exhibited shifts and trends for part of the 30-year series with decreases in δ 13 C and δ 15 N. Specifically, shifts appeared in the early 2000's, likely linking bivalve isotopic ratios to a cascade of processes affected by local drivers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilcox, L J; Highwood, E J; Dunstone, N J

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales. (letter)

  8. Multi-decadal modulations in the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw and the axial symmetry of the Arctic Oscillation signature, as revealed in the 20th century reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Shi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Seesaw relationship in intensity between the surface Aleutian and Icelandic Lows (AIS is a manifestation of atmospheric teleconnection that bridges the interannual variability over the Pacific and Atlantic in particular winter months. Analysis of the 20th Century Reanalysis data reveals that the strength and timing of AIS have undergone multi-decadal modulations in conjunction with those in structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO signature, extracted in the leading mode of interannual sea-level pressure (SLP variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, events of what may be called ‘pure AO’, in which SLP anomalies exhibit a high degree of axial symmetry in association with in-phase SLP variability between the midlatitude Atlantic and Pacific, tended to occur during multi-decadal periods in which the inter-basin teleconnection through AIS was active under the enhanced interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In contrast, the axial symmetry of the AO pattern was apparently reduced during a multi-decadal period in which the AIS teleconnection was inactive under the weakened interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In this period, the leading mode of interannual SLP variability represented a meridional seesaw between the Atlantic and Arctic, which resembles SLP anomaly pattern associated with the cold-ocean/warm-land (COWL temperature pattern. These multi-decadal modulations in interannual AIS signal and the axial symmetry of the interannual AO pattern occurred under multi-decadal changes in the background state that also represented the polarity changes of the COWL-like anomaly pattern.

  9. A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: Climatology, anomalies and trends

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2015-05-15

    Many arid and semi-arid regions have sparse precipitation observing networks, which limits the capacity for detailed hydrological modelling, water resources management and flood forecasting efforts. The objective of this work is to evaluate the utility of relatively high-spatial resolution rainfall products to reproduce observed multi-decadal rainfall characteristics such as climatologies, anomalies and trends over Saudi Arabia. Our study compares the statistical characteristics of rainfall from 53 observatories over the reference period 1965-2005, with rainfall data from six widely used gauge-based products, including APHRODITE, GPCC, PRINCETON, UDEL, CRU and PREC/L. In addition, the performance of three global climate models (GCMs), including CCSM4, EC-EARTH and MRI-I-CGCM3, integrated as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), was also evaluated. Results indicate that the gauge-based products were generally skillful in reproducing rainfall characteristics in Saudi Arabia. In most cases, the gauge-based products were also able to capture the annual cycle, anomalies and climatologies of observed data, although significant inter-product variability was observed, depending on the assessment metric being used. In comparison, the GCM-based products generally exhibited poor performance, with larger biases and very weak correlations, particularly during the summertime. Importantly, all products generally failed to reproduce the observed long-term seasonal and annual trends in the region, particularly during the dry seasons (summer and autumn). Overall, this work suggests that selected gauge-based products with daily (APHRODITE and PRINCETON) and monthly (GPCC and CRU) resolutions show superior performance relative to other products, implying that they may be the most appropriate data source from which multi-decadal variations of rainfall can be investigated at the regional scale over Saudi Arabia. Discriminating these skillful products is

  10. Wave energy fluxes and multi-decadal shoreline changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kabuth, Alina Kristin; Kroon, Aart

    2014-01-01

    Spatial patterns of multidecadal shoreline changes in two microtidal, low-energetic embayments of southern Zealand, Denmark, were investigated by using the directional distribution of wave energy fluxes. The sites include a barrier island system attached to moraine bluffs, and a recurved spit...... variability of directional distributions of wave energy fluxes furthermore outlined potential sediment sources and sinks for the evolution of the barrier island system and for the evolution of the recurved spit....... adjacent to a cliff coast. The barrier island system is characterized by cross-shore translation and by an alignment of the barrier alongshore alternating directions of barrier-spit progradation in a bidirectional wave field. The recurved spit adjacent to the cliff coast experienced shoreline rotation...

  11. Why are models unable to reproduce multi-decadal trends in lower tropospheric baseline ozone levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Liu, J.; Mickley, L. J.; Strahan, S. E.; Steenrod, S.

    2017-12-01

    Assessments of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing rely on accurate model simulations. Parrish et al (2014) found that three chemistry-climate models (CCMs) overestimate present-day O3 mixing ratios and capture only 50% of the observed O3 increase over the last five decades at 12 baseline sites in the northern mid-latitudes, indicating large uncertainties in our understanding of the ozone trends and their implications for radiative forcing. Here we present comparisons of outputs from two chemical transport models (CTMs) - GEOS-Chem and the Global Modeling Initiative model - with O3 observations from the same sites and from the global ozonesonde network. Both CTMs are driven by reanalysis meteorological data (MERRA or MERRA2) and thus are expected to be different in atmospheric transport processes relative to those freely running CCMs. We test whether recent model developments leading to more active ozone chemistry affect the computed ozone sensitivity to perturbations in emissions. Preliminary results suggest these CTMs can reproduce present-day ozone levels but fail to capture the multi-decadal trend since 1980. Both models yield widespread overpredictions of free tropospheric ozone in the 1980s. Sensitivity studies in GEOS-Chem suggest that the model estimate of natural background ozone is too high. We discuss factors that contribute to the variability and trends of tropospheric ozone over the last 30 years, with a focus on intermodel differences in spatial resolution and in the representation of stratospheric chemistry, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, halogen chemistry, and biogenic VOC emissions and chemistry. We also discuss uncertainty in the historical emission inventories used in models, and how these affect the simulated ozone trends.

  12. Gowdy phenomenology in scale-invariant variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Lars; Elst, Henk van; Uggla, Claes

    2004-01-01

    The dynamics of Gowdy vacuum spacetimes is considered in terms of Hubble-normalized scale-invariant variables, using the timelike area temporal gauge. The resulting state space formulation provides for a simple mechanism for the formation of 'false' and 'true spikes' in the approach to the singularity, and a geometrical formulation for the local attractor

  13. Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossow, William B.

    1998-01-01

    The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

  14. Effect of environmental change on the morphology of tidally influenced deltas over multi-decadal timescale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angamuthu, Balaji; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2017-04-01

    An understanding of the geomorphological processes affecting deltas is essential to improve our understanding of the risks that deltas face, especially as human impacts are likely to intensify in the future. Unfortunately, there is limited reliable data on river deltas, meaning that the task of demonstrating the links between morphodynamic and environmental change is challenging. This presentation aims to answer the questions of how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under multiple drivers, focussing on tidally-influenced deltas, as some of these, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta are heavily populated. A series of idealised model simulations over 102 years were used to explore the influence of three key drivers on delta morphodynamics, both individually and together: (i) varying combinations of water and sediment discharges from the upstream catchment, (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, such as polders, cross-dams and changing land cover. Model simulations revealed that delta progradation rates are more sensitive to variations in water discharge than variations in fluvial sediment supply. Unlike mere aggradation during RSLR, the delta front experienced aggradational progradation due to tides. As expected, the area of the simulated sub-aerial delta increases with increasing sediment discharge, but decreases with increasing water discharge. But, human modifications are important. For example, the sub-aerial delta shrinks with increasing RSLR, but it does not when the sub-aerial delta is polderised, provided the polders are restricted from erosion. However, the polders are vulnerable to flooding as they lose relative elevation and can make the delta building process unsustainable. Cross-dams built to steer zones of land accretion within the delta accomplish their local goal, but may not result in net land gain at the scale of the delta. Applying these

  15. A multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea 1949-2014: coastDat2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groll, Nikolaus; Weisse, Ralf

    2017-12-01

    Long and consistent wave data are important for analysing wave climate variability and change. Moreover, such wave data are also needed in coastal and offshore design and for addressing safety-related issues at sea. Using the third-generation spectral wave model WAM a multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea covering the period 1949-2014 was produced. The hindcast is part of the coastDat database representing a consistent and homogeneous met-ocean data set. It is shown that despite not being perfect, data from the wave hindcast are generally suitable for wave climate analysis. In particular, comparisons of hindcast data with in situ and satellite observations show on average a reasonable agreement, while a tendency towards overestimation of the highest waves could be inferred. Despite these limitations, the wave hindcast still provides useful data for assessing wave climate variability and change as well as for risk analysis, in particular when conservative estimates are needed. Hindcast data are stored at the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) and can be freely accessed using the doi:10.1594/WDCC/coastDat-2_WAM-North_Sea Groll and Weisse(2016) or via the coastDat web-page http://www.coastdat.de.

  16. Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como

  17. Meso-scale wind variability. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Larsen, X.; Vincent, C.; Soerensen, P.; Pinson, P.; Trombe, P.-J.; Madsen, H.; Cutululis, N.

    2011-11-15

    The project has aimed to characterize mesoscale meteorological phenomenon for the North Sea and the Inner Danish waters, and additionally aimed on improving the predictability and quality of the power production from offshore windfarms. The meso-scale meteorology has been characterized with respect to the physical processes, climatology, spectral characteristics and correlation properties based on measurements from wind farms, satellite data (SAR) and mesoscale numerical modeling (WRF). The abilities of the WRF model to characterize and predict relevant mesoscale phenomenon has been proven. Additionally application of statistical forecasting, using a Markov switching approach that can be related to the meteorological conditions, to analyze and short term predict the power production from an offshore wind farms have been documented. Two PhD studies have been conducted in connection with the project. The project has been a cooperative project between Risoe DTU, IMM DTU, DONG Energy, Vattenfall and VESTAS. It is registered as Energinet.dk, project no. 2007-1-7141. (Author)

  18. Multi-Decadal Averages of Basal Melt for Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Using Airborne Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, I.; Bell, R. E.; Tinto, K. J.; Frearson, N.; Kingslake, J.; Padman, L.; Siddoway, C. S.; Fricker, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in ice shelf mass balance are key to the long term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although the most extensive ice shelf mass loss currently is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, many other ice shelves experience changes in thickness on time scales from annual to ice age cycles. Here, we focus on the Ross Ice Shelf. An 18-year record (1994-2012) of satellite radar altimetry shows substantial variability in Ross Ice Shelf height on interannual time scales, complicating detection of potential long-term climate-change signals in the mass budget of this ice shelf. Variability of radar signal penetration into the ice-shelf surface snow and firn layers further complicates assessment of mass changes. We investigate Ross Ice Shelf mass balance using aerogeophysical data from the ROSETTA-Ice surveys using IcePod. We use two ice-penetrating radars; a 2 GHz unit that images fine-structure in the upper 400 m of the ice surface and a 360 MHz radar to identify the ice shelf base. We have identified internal layers that are continuous along flow from the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Based on layer continuity, we conclude that these layers must be the horizons between the continental ice of the outlet glaciers and snow accumulation once the ice is afloat. We use the Lagrangian change in thickness of these layers, after correcting for strain rates derived using modern day InSAR velocities, to estimate multidecadal averaged basal melt rates. This method provides a novel way to quantify basal melt, avoiding the confounding impacts of spatial and short-timescale variability in surface accumulation and firn densification processes. Our estimates show elevated basal melt rates (> -1m/yr) around Byrd and Mullock glaciers within 100 km from the ice shelf front. We also compare modern InSAR velocity derived strain rates with estimates from the comprehensive ground-based RIGGS observations during 1973-1978 to estimate the potential magnitude of

  19. Evaluation and application of multi-decadal visibility data for trend analysis of atmospheric haze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available There are few multi-decadal observations of atmospheric aerosols worldwide. This study applies global hourly visibility (Vis observations at more than 3000 stations to investigate historical trends in atmospheric haze over 1945–1996 for the US, and over 1973–2013 for Europe and eastern Asia. A comprehensive data screening and processing framework is developed and applied to minimize uncertainties and construct monthly statistics of inverse visibility (1/Vis. This data processing includes removal of relatively clean cases with high uncertainty, and change point detection to identify and separate methodological discontinuities such as the introduction of instrumentation. Although the relation between 1/Vis and atmospheric extinction coefficient (bext varies across different stations, spatially coherent trends of the screened 1/Vis data exhibit consistency with the temporal evolution of collocated aerosol measurements, including the bext trend of −2.4 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −3.7, −1.1 % yr−1 vs. 1/Vis trend of −1.6 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −2.4, −0.8 % yr−1 over the US for 1989–1996, and the fine aerosol mass (PM2.5 trend of −5.8 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −7.8, −4.2 % yr−1 vs. 1/Vis trend of −3.4 % yr−1 (95 % CI: −4.4, −2.4 % yr−1 over Europe for 2006–2013. Regional 1/Vis and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR sulfur dioxide (SO2 emissions are significantly correlated over the eastern US for 1970–1995 (r = 0.73, over Europe for 1973–2008 (r ∼ 0.9 and over China for 1973–2008 (r ∼ 0.9. Consistent "reversal points" from increasing to decreasing in SO2 emission data are also captured by the regional 1/Vis time series (e.g., late 1970s for the eastern US, early 1980s for western Europe, late 1980s for eastern Europe, and mid 2000s for China. The consistency of 1/Vis trends with other in situ measurements and emission data demonstrates promise in applying these quality assured 1/Vis data

  20. Multi-decadal analysis reveals contrasting patterns of resilience and decline in coral assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Jason E.

    2017-12-01

    A 50-yr study of coral dynamics at Heron Island, on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, shows that community change on a single reef is highly variable and that while some areas of the reef are in decline, others are recovering well 40 yr after a major cyclonic disturbance that eliminated all corals in the study plot. At one site, the genus-level composition in 2012 was identical to that before the cyclone, although it took around 30 yr to recover, and there were still differences at the species level. The colony size structure of some species at this site, notably the dominant Acropora digitifera, which had over 40% cover in 2012, also recovered after 30 yr, although sub-dominant species still lacked large colonies even after 40 yr. Given the small scale of the individual study plots (1 m2), this shows an unexpected degree of determinism in assemblage structure. At a second site, however, both composition and size structure changed dramatically over the last 40 yr of the study as both external and internal factors altered local environmental conditions. At both sites, major changes in composition appear to be related to drying out of the reef crest due to changes in flow regimes and/or natural accretion. At the site that has recovered, erosion has reversed this drying out, whereas no such erosion has occurred at the second site. If such erosion occurs, or sea levels increase due to global warming, then the second site may also prove to be resilient over decadal time scales.

  1. Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiviluoma, Juha [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Holttinen, Hannele [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Weir, David [Energy Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo Norway; Scharff, Richard [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Söder, Lennart [Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Menemenlis, Nickie [Institut de recherche Hydro-Québec, Montreal Canada; Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [DTU, Wind Energy, Roskilde Denmark; Danti Lopez, Irene [Electricity Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin Ireland; Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto California USA; Estanqueiro, Ana [LNEG, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Geologia, UESEO, Lisbon Spain; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio [Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Castilla-La Mancha University, Albacete Spain; Zhang, Qin [State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing China; Bai, Jianhua [State Grid Energy Research Institute Beijing, Beijing China; Wan, Yih-Huei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA

    2015-10-25

    The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

  2. A model for AGN variability on multiple time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Lia F.; Schawinski, Kevin; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Caplar, Neven; Treister, Ezequiel; Koss, Michael J.; Urry, C. Megan; Zhang, C. E.

    2018-05-01

    We present a framework to link and describe active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability on a wide range of time-scales, from days to billions of years. In particular, we concentrate on the AGN variability features related to changes in black hole fuelling and accretion rate. In our framework, the variability features observed in different AGN at different time-scales may be explained as realisations of the same underlying statistical properties. In this context, we propose a model to simulate the evolution of AGN light curves with time based on the probability density function (PDF) and power spectral density (PSD) of the Eddington ratio (L/LEdd) distribution. Motivated by general galaxy population properties, we propose that the PDF may be inspired by the L/LEdd distribution function (ERDF), and that a single (or limited number of) ERDF+PSD set may explain all observed variability features. After outlining the framework and the model, we compile a set of variability measurements in terms of structure function (SF) and magnitude difference. We then combine the variability measurements on a SF plot ranging from days to Gyr. The proposed framework enables constraints on the underlying PSD and the ability to link AGN variability on different time-scales, therefore providing new insights into AGN variability and black hole growth phenomena.

  3. Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

    2018-06-01

    Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

  4. Small-scale variability in tropical tropopause layer humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, E. J.; Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Karcher, B.; Podglajen, A.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Thornberry, T. D.; Rollins, A. W.; Bui, T. V.; Woods, S.; Lawson, P.

    2016-12-01

    Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about -5/3 to -2.

  5. Variability of the raindrop size distribution at small spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berne, A.; Jaffrain, J.

    2010-12-01

    Because of the interactions between atmospheric turbulence and cloud microphysics, the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is strongly variable in space and time. The spatial variability of the DSD at small spatial scales (below a few km) is not well documented and not well understood, mainly because of a lack of adequate measurements at the appropriate resolutions. A network of 16 disdrometers (Parsivels) has been designed and set up over EPFL campus in Lausanne, Switzerland. This network covers a typical operational weather radar pixel of 1x1 km2. The question of the significance of the variability of the DSD at such small scales is relevant for radar remote sensing of rainfall because the DSD is often assumed to be uniform within a radar sample volume and because the Z-R relationships used to convert the measured radar reflectivity Z into rain rate R are usually derived from point measurements. Thanks to the number of disdrometers, it was possible to quantify the spatial variability of the DSD at the radar pixel scale and to show that it can be significant. In this contribution, we show that the variability of the total drop concentration, of the median volume diameter and of the rain rate are significant, taking into account the sampling uncertainty associated with disdrometer measurements. The influence of this variability on the Z-R relationship can be non-negligible. Finally, the spatial structure of the DSD is quantified using a geostatistical tool, the variogram, and indicates high spatial correlation within a radar pixel.

  6. Multi-decade biomass dynamics in an old-growth hemlock-northern hardwood forest, Michigan, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry D. Woods

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Trends in living aboveground biomass and inputs to the pool of coarse woody debris (CWD in an undisturbed, old-growth hemlock-northern hardwood forest in northern MI were estimated from multi-decade observations of permanent plots. Growth and demographic data from seven plot censuses over 47 years (1962–2009, combined with one-time measurement of CWD pools, help assess biomass/carbon status of this landscape. Are trends consistent with traditional notions of late-successional forests as equilibrial ecosystems? Specifically, do biomass pools and CWD inputs show consistent long-term trends and relationships, and can living and dead biomass pools and trends be related to forest composition and history? Aboveground living biomass densities, estimated using standard allometric relationships, range from 360–450 Mg/ha among sampled stands and types; these values are among the highest recorded for northeastern North American forests. Biomass densities showed significant decade-scale variation, but no consistent trends over the full study period (one stand, originating following an 1830 fire, showed an aggrading trend during the first 25 years of the study. Even though total above-ground biomass pools are neither increasing nor decreasing, they have been increasingly dominated, over the full study period, by very large (>70 cm dbh stems and by the most shade-tolerant species (Acer saccharum and Tsuga canadensis.CWD pools measured in 2007 averaged 151 m3/ha, with highest values in Acer-dominated stands. Snag densities averaged 27/ha, but varied nearly ten-fold with canopy composition (highest in Tsuga-dominated stands, lowest in Acer-dominated; snags constituted 10–50% of CWD biomass. Annualized CWD inputs from tree mortality over the full study period averaged 1.9–3.2 Mg/ha/yr, depending on stand and species composition. CWD input rates tended to increase over the course of the study. Input rates may be expected to increase over longer

  7. Contribution to the discussion of P.M. Fayers and David J. Hand: Causal variables, indicator variables and measurement scales: an example from quality of life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels

    2002-01-01

    Causal variables; Clinimetric scales; Composite scales; Construct validity; Measurement scales; Multi-item scales; Quality-of-life instruments......Causal variables; Clinimetric scales; Composite scales; Construct validity; Measurement scales; Multi-item scales; Quality-of-life instruments...

  8. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  9. Multi-Decadal Variability in the Bering Sea: A Synthesis of Model Results and Observations from 1948 to the Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    stated that the development and use of high-resolution Arctic climate and systems models are important stepping stones for dedicated studies of...W., J. L. Clement Kinney, D. C. Marble , and J. Jakacki, 2008: Towards eddy resolving models of the Arctic Ocean: Ocean Modeling in an Eddying

  10. Spatial scales of pollution from variable resolution satellite imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Kostinski, Alex; Lyapustin, Alexei; Koutrakis, Petros

    2013-01-01

    The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides daily global coverage, but the 10 km resolution of its aerosol optical depth (AOD) product is not adequate for studying spatial variability of aerosols in urban areas. Recently, a new Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was developed for MODIS which provides AOD at 1 km resolution. Using MAIAC data, the relationship between MAIAC AOD and PM 2.5 as measured by the EPA ground monitoring stations was investigated at varying spatial scales. Our analysis suggested that the correlation between PM 2.5 and AOD decreased significantly as AOD resolution was degraded. This is so despite the intrinsic mismatch between PM 2.5 ground level measurements and AOD vertically integrated measurements. Furthermore, the fine resolution results indicated spatial variability in particle concentration at a sub-10 km scale. Finally, this spatial variability of AOD within the urban domain was shown to depend on PM 2.5 levels and wind speed. - Highlights: ► The correlation between PM 2.5 and AOD decreases as AOD resolution is degraded. ► High resolution MAIAC AOD 1 km retrieval can be used to investigate within-city PM 2.5 variability. ► Low pollution days exhibit higher spatial variability of AOD and PM 2.5 then moderate pollution days. ► AOD spatial variability within urban area is higher during the lower wind speed conditions. - The correlation between PM 2.5 and AOD decreases as AOD resolution is degraded. The new high-resolution MAIAC AOD retrieval has the potential to capture PM 2.5 variability at the intra-urban scale.

  11. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  12. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  13. Small Scale Variability and the Problem of Data Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparling, L. C.; Avallone, L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Numerous measurements taken with a variety of airborne, balloon borne and ground based instruments over the past decade have revealed a complex multiscaled 3D structure in both chemical and dynamical fields in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. The variability occurs on scales that are well below the resolution of satellite measurements, leading to problems in measurement validation. We discuss some statistical ideas that can shed some light on the contribution of the natural variability to the inevitable differences in correlative measurements that are not strictly colocated, or that have different spatial resolution.

  14. Effect of Variable Spatial Scales on USLE-GIS Computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, R. J.; Sharma, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Use of appropriate spatial scale is very important in Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) based spatially distributed soil erosion modelling. This study aimed at assessment of annual rates of soil erosion at different spatial scales/grid sizes and analysing how changes in spatial scales affect USLE-GIS computations using simulation and statistical variabilities. Efforts have been made in this study to recommend an optimum spatial scale for further USLE-GIS computations for management and planning in the study area. The present research study was conducted in Shakkar River watershed, situated in Narsinghpur and Chhindwara districts of Madhya Pradesh, India. Remote Sensing and GIS techniques were integrated with Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) to predict spatial distribution of soil erosion in the study area at four different spatial scales viz; 30 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m. Rainfall data, soil map, digital elevation model (DEM) and an executable C++ program, and satellite image of the area were used for preparation of the thematic maps for various USLE factors. Annual rates of soil erosion were estimated for 15 years (1992 to 2006) at four different grid sizes. The statistical analysis of four estimated datasets showed that sediment loss dataset at 30 m spatial scale has a minimum standard deviation (2.16), variance (4.68), percent deviation from observed values (2.68 - 18.91 %), and highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.874) among all the four datasets. Thus, it is recommended to adopt this spatial scale for USLE-GIS computations in the study area due to its minimum statistical variability and better agreement with the observed sediment loss data. This study also indicates large scope for use of finer spatial scales in spatially distributed soil erosion modelling.

  15. Quantification and scaling of multipartite entanglement in continuous variable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adesso, Gerardo; Serafini, Alessio; Illuminati, Fabrizio

    2004-11-26

    We present a theoretical method to determine the multipartite entanglement between different partitions of multimode, fully or partially symmetric Gaussian states of continuous variable systems. For such states, we determine the exact expression of the logarithmic negativity and show that it coincides with that of equivalent two-mode Gaussian states. Exploiting this reduction, we demonstrate the scaling of the multipartite entanglement with the number of modes and its reliable experimental estimate by direct measurements of the global and local purities.

  16. Variable scaling method and Stark effect in hydrogen atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, R.K.R.; Ghosh, B.

    1983-09-01

    By relating the Stark effect problem in hydrogen-like atoms to that of the spherical anharmonic oscillator we have found simple formulas for energy eigenvalues for the Stark effect. Matrix elements have been calculated using 0(2,1) algebra technique after Armstrong and then the variable scaling method has been used to find optimal solutions. Our numerical results are compared with those of Hioe and Yoo and also with the results obtained by Lanczos. (author)

  17. Multi-decadal variation in size of juvenile Summer Flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nys, Lauren N.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; Tuckey, Troy D.

    2016-01-01

    During the last quarter-century, management of Summer Flounder Paralichthys dentatus along the Atlantic coast resulted in significant increases in abundance such that rebuilding targets were recently achieved. Although spawning stock biomass is high, recruitment of young-of-the-year (YOY) Summer Flounder remains variable. Chesapeake Bay is one of the principal nursery areas for this species, but processes such as growth and survival that affect production of YOY Summer Flounder in this estuary have not been explored. Here, we investigated the relationship between abundance and size of Summer Flounder recruits from the 1988 to 2012 year classes in Chesapeake Bay. We also considered the effects of environmental factors on fish size because conditions in the bay vary spatially during the time that fish occupy nursery areas. To describe variations in Summer Flounder size, we used monthly length observations from 13,018 YOY fish captured by bottom trawl from the lower Chesapeake Bay and the James, York, and Rappahannock river subestuaries where Summer Flounder are commonly observed. We applied a generalized additive model to describe spatial, temporal, and environmental effects on observed fish size; we also considered the density of Summer Flounder and an index of productivity as factors in the model. Summer Flounder in Chesapeake Bay exhibited density-dependent and spatially related variations in mean length: larger fish were found mostly in the Bay and smaller fish in the subestuaries. Additionally, low ( 26 °C) temperatures and low salinities (indicating that individuals found in these environments were typically smaller than conspecifics inhabiting areas of moderate temperatures and higher salinities. Variable nursery habitat conditions in temperate estuaries affect fish size and, subsequently, may influence production of Summer Flounder year classes through effects on maturation and survival. As water temperatures in the mid-Atlantic region continue to increase

  18. Scales of snow depth variability in high elevation rangeland sagebrush

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesche, Molly E.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Meiman, Paul J.

    2017-09-01

    In high elevation semi-arid rangelands, sagebrush and other shrubs can affect transport and deposition of wind-blown snow, enabling the formation of snowdrifts. Datasets from three field experiments were used to investigate the scales of spatial variability of snow depth around big mountain sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) at a high elevation plateau rangeland in North Park, Colorado, during the winters of 2002, 2003, and 2008. Data were collected at multiple resolutions (0.05 to 25 m) and extents (2 to 1000 m). Finer scale data were collected specifically for this study to examine the correlation between snow depth, sagebrush microtopography, the ground surface, and the snow surface, as well as the temporal consistency of snow depth patterns. Variograms were used to identify the spatial structure and the Moran's I statistic was used to determine the spatial correlation. Results show some temporal consistency in snow depth at several scales. Plot scale snow depth variability is partly a function of the nature of individual shrubs, as there is some correlation between the spatial structure of snow depth and sagebrush, as well as between the ground and snow depth. The optimal sampling resolution appears to be 25-cm, but over a large area, this would require a multitude of samples, and thus a random stratified approach is recommended with a fine measurement resolution of 5-cm.

  19. Non-linear variability in geophysics scaling and fractals

    CERN Document Server

    Lovejoy, S

    1991-01-01

    consequences of broken symmetry -here parity-is studied. In this model, turbulence is dominated by a hierarchy of helical (corkscrew) structures. The authors stress the unique features of such pseudo-scalar cascades as well as the extreme nature of the resulting (intermittent) fluctuations. Intermittent turbulent cascades was also the theme of a paper by us in which we show that universality classes exist for continuous cascades (in which an infinite number of cascade steps occur over a finite range of scales). This result is the multiplicative analogue of the familiar central limit theorem for the addition of random variables. Finally, an interesting paper by Pasmanter investigates the scaling associated with anomolous diffusion in a chaotic tidal basin model involving a small number of degrees of freedom. Although the statistical literature is replete with techniques for dealing with those random processes characterized by both exponentially decaying (non-scaling) autocorrelations and exponentially decaying...

  20. A Multi-Decadal Sample Return Campaign Will Advance Lunar and Solar System Science and Exploration by 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, C. R.; Lawrence, S. J.

    2017-01-01

    There have been 11 missions to the Moon this century, 10 of which have been orbital, from 5 different space agencies. China became the third country to successfully soft-land on the Moon in 2013, and the second to successfully remotely operate a rover on the lunar surface. We now have significant global datasets that, coupled with the 1990s Clementine and Lunar Prospector missions, show that the sample collection is not representative of the lithologies present on the Moon. The M3 data from the Indian Chandrayaan-1 mission have identified lithologies that are not present/under-represented in the sample collection. LRO datasets show that volcanism could be as young as 100 Ma and that significant felsic complexes exist within the lunar crust. A multi-decadal sample return campaign is the next logical step in advancing our understanding of lunar origin and evolution and Solar System processes.

  1. Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential importance resampling and the nudging proposal particle filter. An Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales is estimated through two aspects: the spread of the hindcast ensemble, indicating the uncertainty of the ensemble, and the correlation between the ensemble mean and the pseudo-observations, used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. Our results show that at decadal timescales more sophisticated data assimilation methods as well as denser pseudo-observations used to initialise the hindcasts decrease the spread of the ensemble. However, our experiments did not clearly demonstrate that one of the initialisation methods systematically provides with a more accurate prediction of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean than the others. Overall, the predictability at interannual timescales is limited to 3 years ahead at most. At multi-decadal timescales, the trends in sea ice extent computed over the time period just after the initialisation are clearly better correlated between the hindcasts and the pseudo-observations if the initialisation takes into account the pseudo-observations. The correlation reaches values larger than 0.5 in winter. This high correlation has likely its origin in the slow evolution of the ocean ensured by its strong thermal inertia, showing the importance of the quality of the initialisation below the sea ice.

  2. Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-06-01

    Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets

  3. Spatial scales of pollution from variable resolution satellite imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Kostinski, Alex; Lyapustin, Alexei; Koutrakis, Petros

    2013-01-01

    The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides daily global coverage, but the 10 km resolution of its aerosol optical depth (AOD) product is not adequate for studying spatial variability of aerosols in urban areas. Recently, a new Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was developed for MODIS which provides AOD at 1 km resolution. Using MAIAC data, the relationship between MAIAC AOD and PM(2.5) as measured by the EPA ground monitoring stations was investigated at varying spatial scales. Our analysis suggested that the correlation between PM(2.5) and AOD decreased significantly as AOD resolution was degraded. This is so despite the intrinsic mismatch between PM(2.5) ground level measurements and AOD vertically integrated measurements. Furthermore, the fine resolution results indicated spatial variability in particle concentration at a sub-10 km scale. Finally, this spatial variability of AOD within the urban domain was shown to depend on PM(2.5) levels and wind speed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Multi-decadal satellite measurements of passive and eruptive volcanic SO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carn, Simon; Yang, Kai; Krotkov, Nickolay; Prata, Fred; Telling, Jennifer

    2015-04-01

    Periodic injections of sulfur gas species (SO2, H2S) into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions are among the most important, and yet unpredictable, drivers of natural climate variability. However, passive (lower tropospheric) volcanic degassing is the major component of total volcanic emissions to the atmosphere on a time-averaged basis, but is poorly constrained, impacting estimates of global emissions of other volcanic gases (e.g., CO2). Stratospheric volcanic emissions are very well quantified by satellite remote sensing techniques, and we report ongoing efforts to catalog all significant volcanic SO2 emissions into the stratosphere and troposphere since 1978 using measurements from the ultraviolet (UV) Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS; 1978-2005), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI; 2004 - present) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS; 2012 - present) instruments, supplemented by infrared (IR) data from HIRS, MODIS and AIRS. The database, intended for use as a volcanic forcing dataset in climate models, currently includes over 600 eruptions releasing a total of ~100 Tg SO2, with a mean eruption discharge of ~0.2 Tg SO2. Sensitivity to SO2 emissions from smaller eruptions greatly increased following the launch of OMI in 2004, but uncertainties remain on the volcanic flux of other sulfur species other than SO2 (H2S, OCS) due to difficulty of measurement. Although the post-Pinatubo 1991 era is often classified as volcanically quiescent, many smaller eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index [VEI] 3-4) since 2000 have injected significant amounts of SO2 into the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS), peaking in 2008-2011. We also show how even smaller (VEI 2) tropical eruptions can impact the UTLS and sustain above-background stratospheric aerosol optical depth, thus playing a role in climate forcing on short timescales. To better quantify tropospheric volcanic degassing, we use ~10 years of operational SO2 measurements by OMI to identify the

  5. Intelligent control for large-scale variable speed variable pitch wind turbines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinfang ZHANG; Daping XU; Yibing LIU

    2004-01-01

    Large-scale wind turbine generator systems have strong nonlinear multivariable characteristics with many uncertain factors and disturbances.Automatic control is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of wind turbines.On the basis of simplified and proper model of variable speed variable pitch wind turbines,the effective wind speed is estimated using extended Kalman filter.Intelligent control schemes proposed in the paper include two loops which operate in synchronism with each other.At below-rated wind speed,the inner loop adopts adaptive fuzzy control based on variable universe for generator torque regulation to realize maximum wind energy capture.At above-rated wind speed, a controller based on least square support vector machine is proposed to adjust pitch angle and keep rated output power.The simulation shows the effectiveness of the intelligent control.

  6. Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, Sreekanth T.

    begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

  7. A multi-decadal remote sensing study on glacial change in the North Patagonia Ice Field Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetteh, Lucy Korlekwor

    Glaciers in the North Patagonian Ice Fields are temperate glaciers and can be studied to understand the dynamics of climate change. However, the ice field has been neglected in mass balance studies. In this study, multi decadal study of glacial mass balance, glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion in the North Patagonia were studied. Landsat (TM, ETM+ and 8) and ASTER images were used. San Quintin glacier experienced the highest retreat. Demarcation of glacier lakes boundaries indicated an increase in glacial lake area an addition of 4 new glacial lakes. Nef glacier recorded the highest mass gain of 9.91 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a.-1 and HPN-4 glacier recorded the highest mass loss of -8.9 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a. -1. However, there is a high uncertainty in the elevation values in the DEM due to the rugged nature of the terrain and presence of the heavy snow cover.

  8. Time-scales of stellar rotational variability and starspot diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhypov, Oleksiy V.; Khodachenko, Maxim L.; Lammer, Helmut; Güdel, Manuel; Lüftinger, Teresa; Johnstone, Colin P.

    2018-01-01

    The difference in stability of starspot distribution on the global and hemispherical scales is studied in the rotational spot variability of 1998 main-sequence stars observed by Kepler mission. It is found that the largest patterns are much more stable than smaller ones for cool, slow rotators, whereas the difference is less pronounced for hotter stars and/or faster rotators. This distinction is interpreted in terms of two mechanisms: (1) the diffusive decay of long-living spots in activity complexes of stars with saturated magnetic dynamos, and (2) the spot emergence, which is modulated by gigantic turbulent flows in convection zones of stars with a weaker magnetism. This opens a way for investigation of stellar deep convection, which is yet inaccessible for asteroseismology. Moreover, a subdiffusion in stellar photospheres was revealed from observations for the first time. A diagnostic diagram was proposed that allows differentiation and selection of stars for more detailed studies of these phenomena.

  9. Small scale variability of snow properties on Antarctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wever, Nander; Leonard, Katherine; Paul, Stephan; Jacobi, Hans-Werner; Proksch, Martin; Lehning, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Snow on sea ice plays an important role in air-ice-sea interactions, as snow accumulation may for example increase the albedo. Snow is also able to smooth the ice surface, thereby reducing the surface roughness, while at the same time it may generate new roughness elements by interactions with the wind. Snow density is a key property in many processes, for example by influencing the thermal conductivity of the snow layer, radiative transfer inside the snow as well as the effects of aerodynamic forcing on the snowpack. By comparing snow density and grain size from snow pits and snow micro penetrometer (SMP) measurements, highly resolved density and grain size profiles were acquired during two subsequent cruises of the RV Polarstern in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, between June and October 2013. During the first cruise, SMP measurements were done along two approximately 40 m transects with a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 cm. During the second cruise, one transect was made with approximately 7.5 m resolution over a distance of 500 m. Average snow densities are about 300 kg/m3, but the analysis also reveals a high spatial variability in snow density on sea ice in both horizontal and vertical direction, ranging from roughly 180 to 360 kg/m3. This variability is expressed by coherent snow structures over several meters. On the first cruise, the measurements were accompanied by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) on an area of 50x50 m2. The comparison with the TLS data indicates that the spatial variability is exhibiting similar spatial patterns as deviations in surface topology. This suggests a strong influence from surface processes, for example wind, on the temporal development of density or grain size profiles. The fundamental relationship between variations in snow properties, surface roughness and changes therein as investigated in this study is interpreted with respect to large-scale ice movement and the mass balance.

  10. Small scale variability of snow density on Antarctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wever, N.; Leonard, K. C.; Paul, S.; Jacobi, H. W.; Proksch, M.; Lehning, M.

    2016-12-01

    Snow on sea ice plays an important role in air-ice-sea interactions. For example, snow may smooth the ice surface when snow drift is occurring, while at the same time it may also generate roughness elements by interactions with the wind. Snow density is a key property in many processes, for example by influencing the thermal conductivity of the snow layer, radiative transfer inside the snow as well as the effects of aerodynamic forcing on the snowpack. We present data from an in-situ measurement campaign in the Weddell Sea during two subsequent cruises of RV Polarstern. By comparing snow density from snow pits and snow micro penetrometer (SMP) measurements, augmented by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) on an area of 50x50 m2, highly resolved density profiles and surface topology were acquired at a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 cm. Average snow densities are about 280 kg/m3, but the analysis also reveals a high spatial variability in snow density on sea ice in both horizontal and vertical direction, ranging from roughly 170 to 360 kg/m3. This variability is expressed by coherent snow structures over several meters, which disappear over larger distances. A comparison with TLS data indicates that the spatial variability is related to deviations in surface topology. This suggests a strong influence from surface processes, for example wind, on the temporal development of density profiles. The fundamental relationship between density variations, surface roughness and changes therein as investigated in this study are interpreted with respect to larger-scale ice-movement and the ice mass balance.

  11. Continuous non-marine inputs of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances to the High Arctic: a multi-decadal temporal record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickard, Heidi M.; Criscitiello, Alison S.; Spencer, Christine; Sharp, Martin J.; Muir, Derek C. G.; De Silva, Amila O.; Young, Cora J.

    2018-04-01

    Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are persistent, in some cases, bioaccumulative compounds found ubiquitously within the environment. They can be formed from the atmospheric oxidation of volatile precursor compounds and undergo long-range transport (LRT) through the atmosphere and ocean to remote locations. Ice caps preserve a temporal record of PFAA deposition making them useful in studying the atmospheric trends in LRT of PFAAs in polar or mountainous regions, as well as in understanding major pollutant sources and production changes over time. A 15 m ice core representing 38 years of deposition (1977-2015) was collected from the Devon Ice Cap in Nunavut, providing us with the first multi-decadal temporal ice record in PFAA deposition to the Arctic. Ice core samples were concentrated using solid phase extraction and analyzed by liquid and ion chromatography methods. Both perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonic acids (PFSAs) were detected in the samples, with fluxes ranging from air mass transport densities, and comparing temporal trends in deposition with production changes of possible sources, we find that Eurasian sources, particularly from Continental Asia, are large contributors to the global pollutants impacting the Devon Ice Cap. Comparison of PFAAs to their precursors and correlations of PFCA pairs showed that deposition of PFAAs is dominated by atmospheric formation from volatile precursor sources. Major ion analysis confirmed that marine aerosol inputs are unimportant to the long-range transport mechanisms of these compounds. Assessments of deposition, homologue profiles, ion tracers, air mass transport models, and production and regulation trends allow us to characterize the PFAA depositional profile on the Devon Ice Cap and further understand the LRT mechanisms of these persistent pollutants.

  12. Climatic Drivers for Multi-Decadal Shifts in Solute Transport and Methane Production Zones within a Large Peat Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Paul H.; Siegel, Donald I.; Chanton, Jeffrey P.; Reeve, Andrew S.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Corbett, J. Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Soumitri; Levy, Zeno

    2016-01-01

    Northern peatlands are an important source for greenhouse gases but their capacity to produce methane remains uncertain under changing climatic conditions. We therefore analyzed a 43-year time series of pore-water chemistry to determine if long-term shifts in precipitation altered the vertical transport of solutes within a large peat basin in northern Minnesota. These data suggest that rates of methane production can be finely tuned to multi-decadal shifts in precipitation that drive the vertical penetration of labile carbon substrates within the Glacial Lake Agassiz Peatlands. Tritium and cation profiles demonstrate that only the upper meter of these peat deposits was flushed by downwardly moving recharge from 1965 through 1983 during a Transitional Dry-to-Moist Period. However, a shift to a moister climate after 1984 drove surface waters much deeper, largely flushing the pore waters of all bogs and fens to depths of 2 m. Labile carbon compounds were transported downward from the rhizosphere to the basal peat at this time producing a substantial enrichment of methane in Delta C-14 with respect to the solid-phase peat from 1991 to 2008. These data indicate that labile carbon substrates can fuel deep production zones of methanogenesis that more than doubled in thickness across this large peat basin after 1984. Moreover, the entire peat profile apparently has the capacity to produce methane from labile carbon substrates depending on climate-driven modes of solute transport. Future changes in precipitation may therefore play a central role in determining the source strength of peatlands in the global methane cycle.

  13. Variability of basin-scale terrestrial water storage from a novel application of the water budget equation: the Amazon and the Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Mariotti, A.; Swenson, S.

    2007-12-01

    , simple error analysis using 3 precipitation datasets and 3 evaporation estimates suggest that the multi-decadal amplitude can be uncertain up to a factor of 2, while the agreement is high on interannual timescales. The large TWS variability implies the remarkable capacity of land-surface in storing and taking up water that may be under-represented in models. The results also suggest the existence of water storage memories on multi-year time scales, significantly longer than typically assumed seasonal timescales associated with surface soil moisture.

  14. Variability of interconnected wind plants: correlation length and its dependence on variability time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    St. Martin, Clara M.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Handschy, Mark A.

    2015-04-01

    The variability in wind-generated electricity complicates the integration of this electricity into the electrical grid. This challenge steepens as the percentage of renewably-generated electricity on the grid grows, but variability can be reduced by exploiting geographic diversity: correlations between wind farms decrease as the separation between wind farms increases. But how far is far enough to reduce variability? Grid management requires balancing production on various timescales, and so consideration of correlations reflective of those timescales can guide the appropriate spatial scales of geographic diversity grid integration. To answer ‘how far is far enough,’ we investigate the universal behavior of geographic diversity by exploring wind-speed correlations using three extensive datasets spanning continents, durations and time resolution. First, one year of five-minute wind power generation data from 29 wind farms span 1270 km across Southeastern Australia (Australian Energy Market Operator). Second, 45 years of hourly 10 m wind-speeds from 117 stations span 5000 km across Canada (National Climate Data Archive of Environment Canada). Finally, four years of five-minute wind-speeds from 14 meteorological towers span 350 km of the Northwestern US (Bonneville Power Administration). After removing diurnal cycles and seasonal trends from all datasets, we investigate dependence of correlation length on time scale by digitally high-pass filtering the data on 0.25-2000 h timescales and calculating correlations between sites for each high-pass filter cut-off. Correlations fall to zero with increasing station separation distance, but the characteristic correlation length varies with the high-pass filter applied: the higher the cut-off frequency, the smaller the station separation required to achieve de-correlation. Remarkable similarities between these three datasets reveal behavior that, if universal, could be particularly useful for grid management. For high

  15. Variability in large-scale wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

    2016-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net ...... with well-dispersed wind power. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  16. Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread, Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; McKinlay, John; Newbery, Kym; Takahashi, Akinori; Kato, Akiko; Barbraud, Christophe; DeLord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980's and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960's. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.

  17. Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread, Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin Southwell

    Full Text Available Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980's and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960's. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.

  18. North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato

  19. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dechesne, Arnaud; Badawi, N.; Aamand, Jens

    2014-01-01

    across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance......Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we...... critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates...

  20. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud eDechesne

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays nonrandom spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage, while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modelling and experimental systems that do not include soil’s full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil.

  1. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Barnett, T.P.

    1994-01-01

    The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America is investigated by analyzing data from a multi-decadal integration with a state of the art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales. (orig.)

  2. Psychological variables and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gass, Carlton S; Gutierrez, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The MMPI-2 and WAIS-IV are commonly used together in neuropsychological evaluations yet little is known about their interrelationships. This study explored the potential influence of psychological factors on WAIS-IV performance in a sample of 180 predominantly male veteran referrals that underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological examination in a VA Medical Center. Exclusionary criteria included failed performance validity testing and self-report distortion on the MMPI-2. A Principal Components Analysis was performed on the 15 MMPI-2 content scales, yielding three broader higher-order psychological dimensions: Internalized Emotional Dysfunction (IED), Externalized Emotional Dysfunction (EED), and Fear. Level of IED was not related to performance on the WAIS-IV Full Scale IQ or its four indexes: (Verbal Comprehension, Perceptual Reasoning, Working Memory, and Processing Speed). EED was not related to WAIS-IV performance. Level of Fear, which encompasses health preoccupations (HEA) and distorted perceptions (BIZ), was significantly related to WAIS-IV Full Scale IQ and Verbal Comprehension. These results challenge the common use of high scores on the MMPI-2 IED measures (chiefly depression and anxiety) to explain deficient WAIS-IV performance. In addition, they provide impetus for further investigation of the relation between verbal intelligence and Fear.

  3. Resolving meso-scale seabed variability using reflection measurements from an autonomous underwater vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Charles W; Nielsen, Peter L; Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan

    2012-02-01

    Seabed geoacoustic variability is driven by geological processes that occur over a wide spectrum of space-time scales. While the acoustics community has some understanding of horizontal fine-scale geoacoustic variability, less than O(10(0)) m, and large-scale variability, greater than O(10(3)) m, there is a paucity of data resolving the geoacoustic meso-scale O(10(0)-10(3)) m. Measurements of the meso-scale along an ostensibly "benign" portion of the outer shelf reveal three classes of variability. The first class was expected and is due to horizontal variability of layer thicknesses: this was the only class that could be directly tied to seismic reflection data. The second class is due to rapid changes in layer properties and/or boundaries, occurring over scales of meters to hundreds of meters. The third class was observed as rapid variations of the angle/frequency dependent reflection coefficient within a single observation and is suggestive of variability at scales of meter or less. Though generally assumed to be negligible in acoustic modeling, the second and third classes are indicative of strong horizontal geoacoustic variability within a given layer. The observations give early insight into possible effects of horizontal geoacoustic variability on long-range acoustic propagation and reverberation. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

  4. Analysis of world economic variables using multidimensional scaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J A Tenreiro Machado

    Full Text Available Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

  5. Variable choices of scaling in the homogenization of a Nernst-Planck-Poisson problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ray, N.; Eck, C.; Muntean, A.; Knabner, P.

    2011-01-01

    We perform the periodic homogenization (i. e. e ¿ 0) of the non-stationary Nernst-Planck-Poisson system using two-scale convergence, where e is a suitable scale parameter. The objective is to investigate the influence of variable choices of scaling in e of the microscopic system of partial

  6. The sensitivity of the atmospheric branch of the global water cycle to temperature fluctuations at synoptic to decadal time-scales in different satellite- and model-based products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Miguel

    2018-02-01

    Spectral analysis of global-mean precipitation, P, evaporation, E, precipitable water, W, and surface temperature, Ts, revealed significant variability from sub-daily to multi-decadal time-scales, superposed on high-amplitude diurnal and yearly peaks. Two distinct regimes emerged from a transition in the spectral exponents, β. The weather regime covering time-scales 1-2 years, while at time-scales global-ocean and full-globe averages, ρDCCA showed large spread of the C-C importance for P and E variability amongst different datasets at multi-year time-scales, ranging from negligible (governing mechanisms.

  7. Holocene Climate Variability on the Centennial and Millennial Time Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eun Hee Lee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There have been many suggestions and much debate about climate variability during the Holocene. However, their complex forcing factors and mechanisms have not yet been clearly identified. In this paper, we have examined the Holocene climate cycles and features based on the wavelet analyses of 14C, 10Be, and 18O records. The wavelet results of the 14C and 10Be data show that the cycles of ~2180-2310, ~970, ~500-520, ~350-360, and ~210-220 years are dominant, and the ~1720 and ~1500 year cycles are relatively weak and subdominant. In particular, the ~2180-2310 year periodicity corresponding to the Hallstatt cycle is constantly significant throughout the Holocene, while the ~970 year cycle corresponding to the Eddy cycle is mainly prominent in the early half of the Holocene. In addition, distinctive signals of the ~210-220 year period corresponding to the de Vries cycle appear recurrently in the wavelet distribution of 14C and 10Be, which coincide with the grand solar minima periods. These de Vries cycle events occurred every ~2270 years on average, implying a connection with the Hallstatt cycle. In contrast, the wavelet results of 18O data show that the cycles of ~1900-2000, ~900-1000, and ~550-560 years are dominant, while the ~2750 and ~2500 year cycles are subdominant. The periods of ~2750, ~2500, and ~1900 years being derived from the 18O records of NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, respectively, are rather longer or shorter than the Hallstatt cycle derived from the 14C and 10Be records. The records of these three sites all show the ~900-1000 year periodicity corresponding to the Eddy cycle in the early half of the Holocene.

  8. The Role of Meteorology and Surface Condition to Multi-Decadal Variations of Dust Emission in Sahara and Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T. L.; Bian, H.; Brown, M. E.; Remer, L. A.; Stockwell, W. R.

    2014-12-01

    North Africa is the world's largest dust source region influencing regional and global climate, human health, and even the local economy. However North Africa as a dust source is not uniform but it consists of the arid region (Sahara) and the semi-arid region (Sahel) with emission rates depending on meteorological and surface conditions. Several recent studies have shown that dust from North Africa seems to have a decreasing trend in the past three decades. The goal of this study is to better understand the controlling factors that determine the change of dust in North Africa using observational data and model simulations. First we analyze surface bareness conditions determined from a long-term satellite observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for 1980-2008. Then we examine the key meteorological variables of precipitation and surface winds. Modeling experiments were conducted using the NASA Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which has been recently updated with a dynamic dust source function. Using the method we separate the dust originating from the Sahel from that of the Sahara desert. We find that the surface wind speed is the most dominant factor affecting Sahelian dust emission while vegetation has a modulating effect. We will show regional differences in meteorological variables, surface conditions, dust emission, and dust distribution and address the relationships among meteorology, surface conditions, and dust emission/loading in the past three decades (1980-2008).

  9. Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.

    2014-03-01

    We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.

  10. Characterizing Temperature Variability and Associated Large Scale Meteorological Patterns Across South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detzer, J.; Loikith, P. C.; Mechoso, C. R.; Barkhordarian, A.; Lee, H.

    2017-12-01

    South America's climate varies considerably owing to its large geographic range and diverse topographical features. Spanning the tropics to the mid-latitudes and from high peaks to tropical rainforest, the continent experiences an array of climate and weather patterns. Due to this considerable spatial extent, assessing temperature variability at the continent scale is particularly challenging. It is well documented in the literature that temperatures have been increasing across portions of South America in recent decades, and while there have been many studies that have focused on precipitation variability and change, temperature has received less scientific attention. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the drivers of temperature variability is critical for interpreting future change. First, k-means cluster analysis is used to identify four primary modes of temperature variability across the continent, stratified by season. Next, composites of large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are calculated for months assigned to each cluster. Initial results suggest that LSMPs, defined using meteorological variables such as sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, and wind, are able to identify synoptic scale mechanisms important for driving temperature variability at the monthly scale. Some LSMPs indicate a relationship with known recurrent modes of climate variability. For example, composites of geopotential height suggest that the Southern Annular Mode is an important, but not necessarily dominant, component of temperature variability over southern South America. This work will be extended to assess the drivers of temperature extremes across South America.

  11. Environmental variables measured at multiple spatial scales exert uneven influence on fish assemblages of floodplain lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembkowski, Daniel J.; Miranda, Leandro E.

    2014-01-01

    We examined the interaction between environmental variables measured at three different scales (i.e., landscape, lake, and in-lake) and fish assemblage descriptors across a range of over 50 floodplain lakes in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Mississippi and Arkansas. Our goal was to identify important local- and landscape-level determinants of fish assemblage structure. Relationships between fish assemblage structure and variables measured at broader scales (i.e., landscape-level and lake-level) were hypothesized to be stronger than relationships with variables measured at finer scales (i.e., in-lake variables). Results suggest that fish assemblage structure in floodplain lakes was influenced by variables operating on three different scales. However, and contrary to expectations, canonical correlations between in-lake environmental characteristics and fish assemblage structure were generally stronger than correlations between landscape-level and lake-level variables and fish assemblage structure, suggesting a hierarchy of influence. From a resource management perspective, our study suggests that landscape-level and lake-level variables may be manipulated for conservation or restoration purposes, and in-lake variables and fish assemblage structure may be used to monitor the success of such efforts.

  12. Homogeneity analysis with k sets of variables: An alternating least squares method with optimal scaling features

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Burg, Eeke; de Leeuw, Jan; Verdegaal, Renée

    1988-01-01

    Homogeneity analysis, or multiple correspondence analysis, is usually applied tok separate variables. In this paper we apply it to sets of variables by using sums within sets. The resulting technique is called OVERALS. It uses the notion of optimal scaling, with transformations that can be multiple

  13. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  14. Impact of Emissions and Long-Range Transport on Multi-Decadal Aerosol Trends: Implications for Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.

  15. Decadal and multi-decadal variability of Labrador Sea Water in the north-western North Atlantic Ocean derived from tracer distributions: Heat budget, ventilation, and advection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aken, H.M.; de Jong, M.F.; Yashayaev, I.

    2011-01-01

    Time series of profiles of potential temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, and planetary potential vorticity at intermediate depths in the Labrador Sea, the Irminger Sea, and the Iceland Basin have been constructed by combining the hydrographic sections crossing the sub-arctic gyre of the North

  16. Scaling behavior and variable hopping conductivity in the quantum Hall plateau transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tu, Tao; Zhao, Yong-Jie; Guo, Guo-Ping; Hao, Xiao-Jie; Guo, Guang-Can

    2007-01-01

    We have measured the temperature dependence of the longitudinal resistivity ρ xx of a two-dimensional electron system in the regime of the quantum Hall plateau transition. We extracted the quantitative form of scaling function for ρ xx and compared it with the results of ordinary scaling theory and variable range hopping based theory. We find that the two alternative theoretically proposed scaling functions are valid in different regions

  17. Variability in population abundance is associated with thresholds between scaling regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardwell, D.; Allen, Craig R.

    2009-01-01

    Discontinuous structure in landscapes may result in discontinuous, aggregated species body-mass patterns, reflecting the scales of structure available to animal communities within a landscape. The edges of these body-mass aggregations reflect transitions between available scales of landscape structure. Such transitions, or scale breaks, are theoretically associated with increased biological variability. We hypothesized that variability in population abundance is greater in animal species near the edge of body-mass aggregations than it is in species that are situated in the interior of body-mass aggregations. We tested this hypothesis by examining both temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of species in the bird community of the Florida Everglades sub-ecoregion, USA. Analyses of both temporal and spatial variability in population abundance supported our hypothesis. Our results indicate that variability within complex systems may be non-random, and is heightened where transitions in scales of process and structure occur. This is the first explicit test of the hypothetical relationship between increased population variability and scale breaks. ?? 2009 by the author(s).

  18. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  19. Finding Snowmageddon: Detecting and quantifying northeastern U.S. snowstorms in a multi-decadal global climate ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    The northeastern coast of the United States is particularly vulnerable to impacts from extratropical cyclones during winter months, which produce heavy precipitation, high winds, and coastal flooding. These impacts are amplified by the proximity of major population centers to common storm tracks and include risks to health and welfare, massive transportation disruption, lost spending productivity, power outages, and structural damage. Historically, understanding regional snowfall in climate models has generally centered around seasonal mean climatologies even though major impacts typically occur at the scales of hours to days. To quantify discrete snowstorms at the event level, we describe a new objective detection algorithm for gridded data based on the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) produced by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. The algorithm uses 6-hourly precipitation to collocate storm-integrated snowfall with population density to produce a distribution of snowstorms with societally relevant impacts. The algorithm is tested on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project (LENS) data. Present day distributions of snowfall events is well-replicated within the ensemble. We discuss classification sensitivities to assumptions made in determining precipitation phase and snow water equivalent. We also explore projected reductions in mid-century and end-of-century snowstorms due to changes in snowfall rates and precipitation phase, as well as highlight potential improvements in storm representation from refined horizontal resolution in model simulations.

  20. Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-09-15

    An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

  1. Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Dayan, H.

    (Shankar and Shetye 1999, Unnikrishnan and Shankar 2007) as well as in the basin scale (Lee and McPhaden 2008, Cheng et al. 2008, Han et al. 2010) have been previously investigated, the picture of decadal/multi-decadal variability in the tropical Indo... dynamics along the rim of the northern Indian Ocean (McCreary et al. 1993, McCreary et al. 1996). At intra- seasonal timescales, the Indo-Pacific warm pool region is home to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, an eastward moving energetic fluctuation of deep...

  2. Local processes and regional patterns - Interpreting a multi-decadal altimetry record of Greenland Ice Sheet changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Babonis, G. S.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van der Veen, C. J.; Khan, S. A.; Porter, D. F.

    2016-12-01

    This study presents a new, comprehensive reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes, generated using the Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) approach. 35-year long elevation-change time series (1980-2015) were obtained at more than 150,000 locations from observations acquired by NASA's airborne and spaceborne laser altimeters (ATM, LVIS, ICESat), PROMICE laser altimetry data (2007-2011) and a DEM covering the ice sheet margin derived from stereo aerial photographs (1970s-80s). After removing the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the elastic crustal response to changes in ice loading, the time series were partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics and then converted into mass change histories. Using gridded products, we examined ice sheet elevation, and mass change patterns, and compared them with other estimates at different scales from individual outlet glaciers through large drainage basins, on to the entire ice sheet. Both the SERAC time series and the grids derived from these time series revealed significant spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning, indicating the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing. To investigate the regional and local controls of ice dynamics, we examined thickness change time series near outlet glacier grounding lines. Changes on most outlet glaciers were consistent with one or more episodes of dynamic thinning that propagates upstream from the glacier terminus. The spatial pattern of the onset, duration, and termination of these dynamic thinning events suggest a regional control, such as warming ocean and air temperatures. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. We use statistical methods, such as principal

  3. The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

  4. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby

    2015-04-22

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  5. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby; Mai, Paul Martin; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  6. Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

    2015-04-01

    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

  7. Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapp, S.

    2008-01-01

    Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

  8. Normal variability of children's scaled scores on subtests of the Dutch Wechsler Preschool and Primary scale of Intelligence - third edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurks, P P M; Hendriksen, J G M; Dek, J E; Kooij, A P

    2013-01-01

    Intelligence tests are included in millions of assessments of children and adults each year (Watkins, Glutting, & Lei, 2007a , Applied Neuropsychology, 14, 13). Clinicians often interpret large amounts of subtest scatter, or large differences between the highest and lowest scaled subtest scores, on an intelligence test battery as an index for abnormality or cognitive impairment. The purpose of the present study is to characterize "normal" patterns of variability among subtests of the Dutch Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence - Third Edition (WPPSI-III-NL; Wechsler, 2010 ). Therefore, the frequencies of WPPSI-III-NL scaled subtest scatter were reported for 1039 healthy children aged 4:0-7:11 years. Results indicated that large differences between highest and lowest scaled subtest scores (or subtest scatter) were common in this sample. Furthermore, degree of subtest scatter was related to: (a) the magnitude of the highest scaled subtest score, i.e., more scatter was seen in children with the highest WPPSI-III-NL scaled subtest scores, (b) Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) scores, i.e., higher FSIQ scores were associated with an increase in subtest scatter, and (c) sex differences, with boys showing a tendency to display more scatter than girls. In conclusion, viewing subtest scatter as an index for abnormality in WPPSI-III-NL scores is an oversimplification as this fails to recognize disparate subtest heterogeneity that occurs within a population of healthy children aged 4:0-7:11 years.

  9. Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

    2013-12-01

    Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

  10. Spatial Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Using Geostatistics and Fine Scale Environmental Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    No-Wook Park

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A geostatistical downscaling scheme is presented and can generate fine scale precipitation information from coarse scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. Within the geostatistical framework, the TRMM precipitation data are first decomposed into trend and residual components. Quantitative relationships between coarse scale TRMM data and environmental variables are then estimated via regression analysis and used to derive trend components at a fine scale. Next, the residual components, which are the differences between the trend components and the original TRMM data, are then downscaled at a target fine scale via area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components are finally added to generate fine scale precipitation estimates. Stochastic simulation is also applied to the residual components in order to generate multiple alternative realizations and to compute uncertainty measures. From an experiment using a digital elevation model (DEM and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, the geostatistical downscaling scheme generated the downscaling results that reflected detailed characteristics with better predictive performance, when compared with downscaling without the environmental variables. Multiple realizations and uncertainty measures from simulation also provided useful information for interpretations and further environmental modeling.

  11. Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fyke

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and ice core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.

  12. The swan song in context: long-time-scale X-ray variability of NGC 4051

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttley, P.; McHardy, I. M.; Papadakis, I. E.; Guainazzi, M.; Fruscione, A.

    1999-07-01

    On 1998 May 9-11, the highly variable, low-luminosity Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 was observed in an unusual low-flux state by BeppoSAX, RXTE and EUVE. We present fits of the 4-15keV RXTE spectrum and BeppoSAX MECS spectrum obtained during this observation, which are consistent with the interpretation that the source had switched off, leaving only the spectrum of pure reflection from distant cold matter. We place this result in context by showing the X-ray light curve of NGC 4051 obtained by our RXTE monitoring campaign over the past two and a half years, which shows that the low state lasted for ~150d before the May observations (implying that the reflecting material is >10^17cm from the continuum source) and forms part of a light curve showing distinct variations in long-term average flux over time-scales > months. We show that the long-time-scale component to X-ray variability is intrinsic to the primary continuum and is probably distinct from the variability at shorter time-scales. The long-time-scale component to variability maybe associated with variations in the accretion flow of matter on to the central black hole. As the source approaches the low state, the variability process becomes non-linear. NGC 4051 may represent a microcosm of all X-ray variability in radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs), displaying in a few years a variety of flux states and variability properties which more luminous AGNs may pass through on time-scales of decades to thousands of years.

  13. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

  14. Estimating Catchment-Scale Snowpack Variability in Complex Forested Terrain, Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harpold, A. A.; Brooks, P. D.; Biederman, J. A.; Swetnam, T.

    2011-12-01

    Difficulty estimating snowpack variability across complex forested terrain currently hinders the prediction of water resources in the semi-arid Southwestern U.S. Catchment-scale estimates of snowpack variability are necessary for addressing ecological, hydrological, and water resources issues, but are often interpolated from a small number of point-scale observations. In this study, we used LiDAR-derived distributed datasets to investigate how elevation, aspect, topography, and vegetation interact to control catchment-scale snowpack variability. The study area is the Redondo massif in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM, a resurgent dome that varies from 2500 to 3430 m and drains from all aspects. Mean LiDAR-derived snow depths from four catchments (2.2 to 3.4 km^2) draining different aspects of the Redondo massif varied by 30%, despite similar mean elevations and mixed conifer forest cover. To better quantify this variability in snow depths we performed a multiple linear regression (MLR) at a 7.3 by 7.3 km study area (5 x 106 snow depth measurements) comprising the four catchments. The MLR showed that elevation explained 45% of the variability in snow depths across the study area, aspect explained 18% (dominated by N-S aspect), and vegetation 2% (canopy density and height). This linear relationship was not transferable to the catchment-scale however, where additional MLR analyses showed the influence of aspect and elevation differed between the catchments. The strong influence of North-South aspect in most catchments indicated that the solar radiation is an important control on snow depth variability. To explore the role of solar radiation, a model was used to generate winter solar forcing index (SFI) values based on the local and remote topography. The SFI was able to explain a large amount of snow depth variability in areas with similar elevation and aspect. Finally, the SFI was modified to include the effects of shading from vegetation (in and out of

  15. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    OpenAIRE

    Cuomo, V.; Lanfredi, M.; Lapenna, V.; Macchiato, M.; Ragosta, M.; Telesca, L.

    2000-01-01

    Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram), a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal...

  16. Bounds of Double Integral Dynamic Inequalities in Two Independent Variables on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Saker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our aim in this paper is to establish some explicit bounds of the unknown function in a certain class of nonlinear dynamic inequalities in two independent variables on time scales which are unbounded above. These on the one hand generalize and on the other hand furnish a handy tool for the study of qualitative as well as quantitative properties of solutions of partial dynamic equations on time scales. Some examples are considered to demonstrate the applications of the results.

  17. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ragosta

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram, a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal fluctuations are characterised by two time scale ranges in which self-potential variability appears to follow slightly different dynamical behaviours. Results point to the presence of fractal, non stationary features expressing a long term correlation with scaling coefficients which are the clue of stabilising mechanisms. In the scale ranges in which the series show scale invariant behaviour, self-potentials evolve like fractional Brownian motions with anticorrelated increments typical of processes regulated by negative feedback mechanisms (antipersistence. On scales below about 6 h the strength of such an antipersistence appears to be slightly greater than that observed on larger time scales where the fluctuations are less efficiently stabilised.

  18. Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

    2012-01-01

    A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…

  19. The scales of variability of stream fish assemblage at tributary confluences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    István Czeglédi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Tributary confluences play an important role in the dispersal of organisms, and consequently, in shaping regional scale diversity in stream networks. Despite their importance in dispersal processes, little is known about how ecological assemblages are organized in these habitats. We studied the scales of variability of stream fish assemblages over three seasons using a hierarchical sampling design, which incorporated three tributaries, three sites at the mouth of each tributary and using four sampling units at each site. We found strong scale dependent variability in species richness, composition and relative abundance. Most of the variation was accounted for by the interactive effect of season, between stream and between site effects, while habitat structure of the sampling units had a relatively minor role. Species richness showed a continuous decrease from the mainstem river in most cases, while species composition and relative abundance changed less consistently along the longitudinal profile. Consequently, we found that not only the junctions presented a strong filter on the species pool, but some species were filtered out if they passed this critical habitat bottleneck. Spatial position of the tributaries along the river also contributed to assemblage variability in the confluences. Overall, our results suggest high variability in fish assemblages across multiple scales at tributary confluences. Environmental management should take a more critical care on the filtering role of tributary confluences in species dispersal, for better understanding patterns and processes in the branches of dendritic stream networks.

  20. Prediction of spatially variable unsaturated hydraulic conductivity using scaled particle-size distribution functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nasta, P.; Romano, N.; Assouline, S; Vrugt, J.A.; Hopmans, J.W.

    2013-01-01

    Simultaneous scaling of soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity functions provides an effective means to characterize the heterogeneity and spatial variability of soil hydraulic properties in a given study area. The statistical significance of this approach largely depends on the number of

  1. Representing major soil variability at regional scale by constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling of remote sensing data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, V.L.; Bruin, de S.; Schaepman, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a sparse, remote sensing-based sampling approach making use of conditioned Latin Hypercube Sampling (cLHS) to assess variability in soil properties at regional scale. The method optimizes the sampling scheme for a defined spatial population based on selected covariates, which are

  2. Economies of scale in the Korean district heating system: A variable cost function approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sun-Young; Lee, Kyoung-Sil; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate the cost efficiency of South Korea’s district heating (DH) system by using a variable cost function and cost-share equation. We employ a seemingly unrelated regression model, with quarterly time-series data from the Korea District Heating Corporation (KDHC)—a public utility that covers about 59% of the DH system market in South Korea—over the 1987–2011 period. The explanatory variables are price of labor, price of material, capital cost, and production level. The results indicate that economies of scale are present and statistically significant. Thus, expansion of its DH business would allow KDHC to obtain substantial economies of scale. According to our forecasts vis-à-vis scale economies, the KDHC will enjoy cost efficiency for some time yet. To ensure a socially efficient supply of DH, it is recommended that the KDHC expand its business proactively. With regard to informing policy or regulations, our empirical results could play a significant role in decision-making processes. - Highlights: • We examine economies of scale in the South Korean district heating sector. • We focus on Korea District Heating Corporation (KDHC), a public utility. • We estimate a translog cost function, using a variable cost function. • We found economies of scale to be present and statistically significant. • KDHC will enjoy cost efficiency and expanding its supply is socially efficient.

  3. Multi-scale variability and long-range memory in indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Reik V.; Potirakis, Stelios; Barbosa, Susana

    2014-05-01

    The presence or absence of long-range correlations in the variations of indoor Radon concentrations has recently attracted considerable interest. As a radioactive gas naturally emitted from the ground in certain geological settings, understanding environmental factors controlling Radon concentrations and their dynamics is important for estimating its effect on human health and the efficiency of possible measures for reducing the corresponding exposition. In this work, we re-analyze two high-resolution records of indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal, each of which spans several months of continuous measurements. In order to evaluate the presence of long-range correlations and fractal scaling, we utilize a multiplicity of complementary methods, including power spectral analysis, ARFIMA modeling, classical and multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis, and two different estimators of the signals' fractal dimensions. Power spectra and fluctuation functions reveal some complex behavior with qualitatively different properties on different time-scales: white noise in the high-frequency part, indications of some long-range correlated process dominating time scales of several hours to days, and pronounced low-frequency variability associated with tidal and/or meteorological forcing. In order to further decompose these different scales of variability, we apply two different approaches. On the one hand, applying multi-resolution analysis based on the discrete wavelet transform allows separately studying contributions on different time scales and characterize their specific correlation and scaling properties. On the other hand, singular system analysis (SSA) provides a reconstruction of the essential modes of variability. Specifically, by considering only the first leading SSA modes, we achieve an efficient de-noising of our environmental signals, highlighting the low-frequency variations together with some distinct scaling on sub-daily time-scales resembling

  4. Long time scale hard X-ray variability in Seyfert 1 galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Alex Gary

    This dissertation examines the relationship between long-term X-ray variability characteristics, black hole mass, and luminosity of Seyfert 1 Active Galactic Nuclei. High dynamic range power spectral density functions (PSDs) have been constructed for six Seyfert 1 galaxies. These PSDs show "breaks" or characteristic time scales, typically on the order of a few days. There is resemblance to PSDs of lower-mass Galactic X-ray binaries (XRBs), with the ratios of putative black hole masses and variability time scales approximately the same (106--7) between the two classes of objects. The data are consistent with a linear correlation between Seyfert PSD break time scale and black hole mass estimate; the relation extrapolates reasonably well over 6--7 orders of magnitude to XRBs. All of this strengthens the case for a physical similarity between Seyfert galaxies and XRBs. The first six years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1s have been systematically analyzed to probe hard X-ray variability on multiple time scales in a total of 19 Seyfert is in an expansion of the survey of Markowitz & Edelson (2001). Correlations between variability amplitude, luminosity, and black hole mass are explored, the data support the model of PSD movement with black hole mass suggested by the PSD survey. All of the continuum variability results are consistent with relatively more massive black holes hosting larger X-ray emission regions, resulting in 'slower' observed variability. Nearly all sources in the sample exhibit stronger variability towards softer energies, consistent with softening as they brighten. Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert is to study long-term spectral variability and Fe Kalpha variability characteristics. The Fe Kalpha line displays a wide range of behavior but varies less strongly than the broadband continuum. Overall, however, there is no strong evidence for correlated variability between the line and

  5. Organisationally relevant variables and Keyes's Mental Health Continuum Scale: An exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deo J.W. Strümpfer

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In an exploratory study on a sample of convenience (n = 165, 11 self-report variables with presumed organisational  relevance were  related,  as  predictors,  to  the  three  subscores  and  summed  score of  the Keyes  (2005a, 2005b; 2007 Mental Health Continuum  scale  (long  form. Keyes's  scale was administered five to seven days after the first set of scales. The predictor scores were reduced to three factorial scores, labelled positive orientation, negative orientation and positive striving. When classified thus, the predictor variables showed significant and meaningful relationships with some or all of the Keyes subscores and the total score, although few reached medium effect sizes.

  6. A possible interrelation between Earth rotation and climatic variability at decadal time-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonid Zotov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA we decomposed climatic time series into principal components, and compared them with Earth rotation parameters. The global warming trends were initially subtracted. Similar quasi 60 and 20 year periodic oscillations have been found in the global mean Earth temperature anomaly (HadCRUT4 and global mean sea level (GMSL. Similar cycles were also found in Earth rotation variation. Over the last 160 years multi-decadal change of Earth's rotation velocity is correlated with the 60-year temperature anomaly, and Chandler wobble envelope reproduces the form of the 60-year oscillation noticed in GMSL. The quasi 20-year oscillation observed in GMSL is correlated with the Chandler wobble excitation. So, we assume that Earth's rotation and climate indexes are connected. Despite of all the clues hinting this connection, no sound conclusion can be done as far as ocean circulation modelling is not able to correctly catch angular momentum of the oscillatory modes.

  7. Testing the Effectiveness of Environmental Variables to Explain European Terrestrial Vertebrate Species Richness across Biogeographical Scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maud Mouchet

    Full Text Available We compared the effectiveness of environmental variables, and in particular of land-use indicators, to explain species richness patterns across taxonomic groups and biogeographical scales (i.e. overall pan-Europe and ecoregions within pan-Europe. Using boosted regression trees that handle non-linear relationships, we compared the relative influence (as a measure of effectiveness of environmental variables related to climate, landscape (or habitat heterogeneity, land-use intensity or energy availability to explain European vertebrate species richness (birds, amphibians, and mammals at the continental and ecoregion scales. We found that dominant land cover and actual evapotranspiration that relate to energy availability were the main correlates of vertebrate species richness over Europe. At the ecoregion scale, we identified four distinct groups of ecoregions where species richness was essentially associated to (i seasonality of temperature, (ii actual evapotranspiration and/or mean annual temperature, (iii seasonality of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and land cover and (iv and an even combination of the environmental variables. This typology of ecoregions remained valid for total vertebrate richness and the three vertebrate groups taken separately. Despite the overwhelming influence of land cover and actual evapotranspiration to explain vertebrate species richness patterns at European scale, the ranking of the main correlates of species richness varied between regions. Interestingly, landscape and land-use indicators did not stand out at the continental scale but their influence greatly increased in southern ecoregions, revealing the long-lasting human footprint on land-use-land-cover changes. Our study provides one of the first multi-scale descriptions of the variability in the ranking of correlates across several taxa.

  8. Observed metre scale horizontal variability of elemental carbon in surface snow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, J; Lihavainen, H; Ström, J; Hansson, M; Kerminen, V-M

    2013-01-01

    Surface snow investigated for its elemental carbon (EC) concentration, based on a thermal–optical method, at two different sites during winter and spring of 2010 demonstrates metre scale horizontal variability in concentration. Based on the two sites sampled, a clean and a polluted site, the clean site (Arctic Finland) presents the greatest variability. In side-by-side ratios between neighbouring samples, 5 m apart, a ratio of around two was observed for the clean site. The median for the polluted site had a ratio of 1.2 between neighbouring samples. The results suggest that regions exposed to snowdrift may be more sensitive to horizontal variability in EC concentration. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of carefully choosing sampling sites and timing, as each parameter will have some effect on EC variability. They also emphasize the importance of gathering multiple samples from a site to obtain a representative value for the area. (letter)

  9. European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

  10. Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medhaug, I.; Eldevik, T.; Furevik, T. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Langehaug, H.R. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Bentsen, M. [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)

    2012-07-15

    Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) and time scales of 40-70 years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC's northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean's poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC. (orig.)

  11. Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

    2018-02-01

    Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

  12. A suite of global, cross-scale topographic variables for environmental and biodiversity modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amatulli, Giuseppe; Domisch, Sami; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Parmentier, Benoit; Ranipeta, Ajay; Malczyk, Jeremy; Jetz, Walter

    2018-03-01

    Topographic variation underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in hydrology, climatology, geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale research applications, however to date, such datasets are unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED2010 and near-global 90 m SRTM4.1dev to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile/tangential curvature, first/second order partial derivative, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches. While a cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at Data Citation 1 and for download and visualization at http://www.earthenv.org/topography.

  13. R Aquarii - the large-scale optical nebula and the Mira variable position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michalitsianos, A.G.; Oliversen, R.J.; Hollis, J.M.; Kafatos, M.; Crull, H.E.

    1988-01-01

    The R Aquarii symbiotic star system is surrounded by a large-scale optical nebula. Observations of the nebular forbidden O III structure are presented and its morphological significance are discussed in context with previously observed small-scale radio-continuum features, which may be related. It is suggested that a precessing accretion disk may explain the global features of both the large-scale optical emission and the small-scale radio emission. Moreover, an accurate position has been determined of the system's Mira, which suggests that a recent theoretical model, yielding an egg-shaped central H II region for symbiotic systems with certain physical parameters, may apply to R Aquarii. The optical position of the 387 d period Mira variable is consistent with previous findings in the radio, that SiO maser emission is far removed from the Mira photosphere. 25 references

  14. Cooperative Coevolution with Formula-Based Variable Grouping for Large-Scale Global Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuping; Liu, Haiyan; Wei, Fei; Zong, Tingting; Li, Xiaodong

    2017-08-09

    For a large-scale global optimization (LSGO) problem, divide-and-conquer is usually considered an effective strategy to decompose the problem into smaller subproblems, each of which can then be solved individually. Among these decomposition methods, variable grouping is shown to be promising in recent years. Existing variable grouping methods usually assume the problem to be black-box (i.e., assuming that an analytical model of the objective function is unknown), and they attempt to learn appropriate variable grouping that would allow for a better decomposition of the problem. In such cases, these variable grouping methods do not make a direct use of the formula of the objective function. However, it can be argued that many real-world problems are white-box problems, that is, the formulas of objective functions are often known a priori. These formulas of the objective functions provide rich information which can then be used to design an effective variable group method. In this article, a formula-based grouping strategy (FBG) for white-box problems is first proposed. It groups variables directly via the formula of an objective function which usually consists of a finite number of operations (i.e., four arithmetic operations "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]", "[Formula: see text]" and composite operations of basic elementary functions). In FBG, the operations are classified into two classes: one resulting in nonseparable variables, and the other resulting in separable variables. In FBG, variables can be automatically grouped into a suitable number of non-interacting subcomponents, with variables in each subcomponent being interdependent. FBG can easily be applied to any white-box problem and can be integrated into a cooperative coevolution framework. Based on FBG, a novel cooperative coevolution algorithm with formula-based variable grouping (so-called CCF) is proposed in this article for decomposing a large-scale white-box problem

  15. Scaling prediction errors to reward variability benefits error-driven learning in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diederen, Kelly M J; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-09-01

    Effective error-driven learning requires individuals to adapt learning to environmental reward variability. The adaptive mechanism may involve decays in learning rate across subsequent trials, as shown previously, and rescaling of reward prediction errors. The present study investigated the influence of prediction error scaling and, in particular, the consequences for learning performance. Participants explicitly predicted reward magnitudes that were drawn from different probability distributions with specific standard deviations. By fitting the data with reinforcement learning models, we found scaling of prediction errors, in addition to the learning rate decay shown previously. Importantly, the prediction error scaling was closely related to learning performance, defined as accuracy in predicting the mean of reward distributions, across individual participants. In addition, participants who scaled prediction errors relative to standard deviation also presented with more similar performance for different standard deviations, indicating that increases in standard deviation did not substantially decrease "adapters'" accuracy in predicting the means of reward distributions. However, exaggerated scaling beyond the standard deviation resulted in impaired performance. Thus efficient adaptation makes learning more robust to changing variability. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  16. Spatial Variability of Indicators of Jiaokou Reservoir Under Different Sampling Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WEI Wen-juan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This research determined total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen and potassium permanganate contents in different scales of Jiaokou reservoir with the purpose of exploring the applicability of spatial variability and its characteristic in different sampling scales. The results showed that, compared the sampling scales of 100 m with 200 m, there were some differences among four indicators in the spatial variation, interpolation simulation and spatial distribution. About the testing model fit, the fitting model for the total nitrogen, permanganate index was Gaussian model, the fitting model for total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen was the spherical model; Combining evaluation of parameters of models and comprehensive evaluation of spatial interpolation, total nitrogen, total phosphorus showed stronger spatial correlation and better interpolation simulation quality on the sampling scales of 200 m, while total phosphorus and permanganate index showed certain advantages on the 100 m scale; On the aspect of spatial distributions, the contents of ammonia nitrogen and potassium permanganate were mainly affected by human factors, the total phosphorus was affected by internal factors of the reservoir, while total nitrogen was closely related to farming activities around reservoir. The above results showed that total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen were more available for the 200 m scales and total phosphorus, potassium permanganate were more available for the 100 m scales.

  17. Perhaps a new unified scaling variable for describing the low- and high-psub(T) processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaglobeli, N.S.; Esakia, S.M.; Khujadze, A.M.; Kuratashvili, G.O.; Topuria, T.P.; Garsevanishvili, V.R.

    1982-09-01

    A new scale invariant parametrization of single particle inclusive spectra in hadron-hadron collisions is proposed. The variable introduced goes over to the well-known scaling variables xsub(F)=2psub(z)/√s and xsub(T)=2psub(T)/√s in the high-psub(z) and high-psub(T) limits, respectively. Some ''critical'' surfaces are found in the phase space of produced particles, which determine the boundary of the regions with significantly different characteristics (in particular, angular distributions) of generated particles. In one of these two regions a naive statistical model seems to be in good agreement with the data, whereas it does not work in the other region. (author)

  18. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

    2018-01-01

    Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

  19. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

    2018-01-26

    Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

  20. Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-01-01

    Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

  1. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    OpenAIRE

    D. Schertzer; S. Lovejoy; S. Lovejoy

    1994-01-01

    1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3) was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986), NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991), five consecutive annual ...

  2. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    OpenAIRE

    Schertzer , D; Lovejoy , S.

    1994-01-01

    International audience; 1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3) was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986), NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991), five conse...

  3. The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

    2015-04-01

    The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

  4. Impacts of Climate Variability on Latin American Small-scale Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Defeo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale fisheries (SSFs are social-ecological systems that play a critical role in terms of food security and poverty alleviation in Latin America. These fisheries are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic and climatic drivers acting at multiple scales. We review the effects of climate variability on Latin American SSFs, and discuss the combined effects of two additional human drivers: globalization of markets and governance. We show drastic long-term and large-scale effects of climate variability, e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies, wind intensity, sea level, and climatic indices, on SSFs. These variables, acting in concert with economic drivers, have exacerbated stock depletion rates in Latin American SSFs. The impact of these drivers varied according to the life cycle and latitudinal distribution of the target species, the characteristics of the oceanographic systems, and the inherent features of the social systems. Our review highlights the urgent need to improve management and governance systems to promote resilience as a way to cope with the increasing uncertainty about the impacts of climate and globalization of markets on Latin American SSFs.

  5. Scale-dependent spatial variability in peatland lead pollution in the southern Pennines, UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothwell, James J.; Evans, Martin G.; Lindsay, John B.; Allott, Timothy E.H.

    2007-01-01

    Increasingly, within-site and regional comparisons of peatland lead pollution have been undertaken using the inventory approach. The peatlands of the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK, have received significant atmospheric inputs of lead over the last few hundred years. A multi-core study at three peatland sites in the Peak District demonstrates significant within-site spatial variability in industrial lead pollution. Stochastic simulations reveal that 15 peat cores are required to calculate reliable lead inventories at the within-site and within-region scale for this highly polluted area of the southern Pennines. Within-site variability in lead pollution is dominant at the within-region scale. The study demonstrates that significant errors may be associated with peatland lead inventories at sites where only a single peat core has been used to calculate an inventory. Meaningful comparisons of lead inventories at the regional or global scale can only be made if the within-site variability of lead pollution has been quantified reliably. - Multiple peat cores are required for accurate peatland Pb inventories

  6. Scale-dependent spatial variability in peatland lead pollution in the southern Pennines, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothwell, James J; Evans, Martin G; Lindsay, John B; Allott, Timothy E H

    2007-01-01

    Increasingly, within-site and regional comparisons of peatland lead pollution have been undertaken using the inventory approach. The peatlands of the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK, have received significant atmospheric inputs of lead over the last few hundred years. A multi-core study at three peatland sites in the Peak District demonstrates significant within-site spatial variability in industrial lead pollution. Stochastic simulations reveal that 15 peat cores are required to calculate reliable lead inventories at the within-site and within-region scale for this highly polluted area of the southern Pennines. Within-site variability in lead pollution is dominant at the within-region scale. The study demonstrates that significant errors may be associated with peatland lead inventories at sites where only a single peat core has been used to calculate an inventory. Meaningful comparisons of lead inventories at the regional or global scale can only be made if the within-site variability of lead pollution has been quantified reliably.

  7. Numerical Investigation of Multiple-, Interacting-Scale Variable-Density Ground Water Flow Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosler, D.; Ibaraki, M.

    2004-12-01

    The goal of our study is to elucidate the nonlinear processes that are important for multiple-, interacting-scale flow and solute transport in subsurface environments. In particular, we are focusing on the influence of small-scale instability development on variable-density ground water flow behavior in large-scale systems. Convective mixing caused by these instabilities may mix the fluids to a greater extent than would be the case with classical, Fickian dispersion. Most current numerical schemes for interpreting field-scale variable-density flow systems do not explicitly account for the complexities caused by small-scale instabilities and treat such processes as "lumped" Fickian dispersive mixing. Such approaches may greatly underestimate the mixing behavior and misrepresent the overall large-scale flow field dynamics. The specific objectives of our study are: (i) to develop an adaptive (spatial and temporal scales) three-dimensional numerical model that is fully capable of simulating field-scale variable-density flow systems with fine resolution (~1 cm); and (ii) to evaluate the importance of scale-dependent process interactions by performing a series of simulations on different problem scales ranging from laboratory experiments to field settings, including an aquifer storage and freshwater recovery (ASR) system similar to those planned for the Florida Everglades and in-situ contaminant remediation systems. We are examining (1) methods to create instabilities in field-scale systems, (2) porous media heterogeneity effects, and (3) the relation between heterogeneity characteristics (e.g., permeability variance and correlation length scales) and the mixing scales that develop for varying degrees of unstable stratification. Applications of our work include the design of new water supply and conservation measures (e.g., ASR systems), assessment of saltwater intrusion problems in coastal aquifers, and the design of in-situ remediation systems for aquifer restoration

  8. Small-scale variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry, Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulanowski, T A; Branfireun, B A

    2013-06-01

    The Hudson Bay Lowland (HBL) of northern Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec, Canada is the second largest contiguous peatland complex in the world, currently containing more than half of Canada's soil carbon. Recent concerns about the ecohydrological impacts to these large northern peatlands resulting from climate change and resource extraction have catalyzed a resurgence in scientific research into this ecologically important region. However, the sheer size, heterogeneity and elaborate landscape arrangements of this ecosystem raise important questions concerning representative sampling of environmental media for chemical or physical characterization. To begin to quantify such variability, this study assessed the small-scale spatial (1m) and short temporal (21 day) variability of surface pore-water biogeochemistry (pH, dissolved organic carbon, and major ions) in a Sphagnum spp.-dominated, ombrotrophic raised bog, and a Carex spp.-dominated intermediate fen in the HBL. In general, pore-water pH and concentrations of dissolved solutes were similar to previously reported literature values from this region. However, systematic sampling revealed consistent statistically significant differences in pore-water chemistries between the bog and fen peatland types, and large within-site spatiotemporal variability. We found that microtopography in the bog was associated with consistent differences in most biogeochemical variables. Temporal changes in dissolved solute chemistry, particularly base cations (Na(+), Ca(2+) and Mg(2+)), were statistically significant in the intermediate fen, likely a result of a dynamic connection between surficial waters and mineral-rich deep groundwater. In both the bog and fen, concentrations of SO4(2-) showed considerable spatial variability, and a significant decrease in concentrations over the study period. The observed variability in peatland pore-water biogeochemistry over such small spatial and temporal scales suggests that under-sampling in

  9. Fractal scaling behavior of heart rate variability in response to meditation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodríguez, E.; Echeverría, J.C.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • The scaling properties of heart rate variability in premeditation and meditation states were studied. • Mindfulness meditation induces a decrement of the HRV long-range scaling correlations. • Mindfulness meditation can be regarded as a type of induced deep sleep-like dynamics. - Abstract: The rescaled range (R/S) analysis was used for analyzing the fractal scaling properties of heart rate variability (HRV) of subjects undergoing premeditation and meditation states. Eight novice subjects and four advanced practitioners were considered. The corresponding pre-meditation and meditation HRV data were obtained from the Physionet database. The results showed that mindfulness meditation induces a decrement of the HRV long-range scaling correlations as quantified with the time-variant Hurst exponent. The Hurst exponent for advanced meditation practitioners decreases up to values of 0.5, reflecting uncorrelated (e.g., white noise-like) HRV dynamics. Some parallelisms between mindfulness meditation and deep sleep (Stage 4) are discussed, suggesting that the former can be regarded as a type of induced deep sleep-like dynamics.

  10. Variability of the Magnetic Field Power Spectrum in the Solar Wind at Electron Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Owen Wyn; Alexandrova, O.; Kajdič, P.; Turc, L.; Perrone, D.; Escoubet, C. P.; Walsh, A.

    2017-12-01

    At electron scales, the power spectrum of solar-wind magnetic fluctuations can be highly variable and the dissipation mechanisms of the magnetic energy into the various particle species is under debate. In this paper, we investigate data from the Cluster mission’s STAFF Search Coil magnetometer when the level of turbulence is sufficiently high that the morphology of the power spectrum at electron scales can be investigated. The Cluster spacecraft sample a disturbed interval of plasma where two streams of solar wind interact. Meanwhile, several discontinuities (coherent structures) are seen in the large-scale magnetic field, while at small scales several intermittent bursts of wave activity (whistler waves) are present. Several different morphologies of the power spectrum can be identified: (1) two power laws separated by a break, (2) an exponential cutoff near the Taylor shifted electron scales, and (3) strong spectral knees at the Taylor shifted electron scales. These different morphologies are investigated by using wavelet coherence, showing that, in this interval, a clear break and strong spectral knees are features that are associated with sporadic quasi parallel propagating whistler waves, even for short times. On the other hand, when no signatures of whistler waves at ∼ 0.1{--}0.2{f}{ce} are present, a clear break is difficult to find and the spectrum is often more characteristic of a power law with an exponential cutoff.

  11. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-02-29

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

  12. Soil moisture variability across different scales in an Indian watershed for satellite soil moisture product validation

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gurjeet

    2016-05-05

    Strategic ground-based sampling of soil moisture across multiple scales is necessary to validate remotely sensed quantities such as NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) product. In the present study, in-situ soil moisture data were collected at two nested scale extents (0.5 km and 3 km) to understand the trend of soil moisture variability across these scales. This ground-based soil moisture sampling was conducted in the 500 km2 Rana watershed situated in eastern India. The study area is characterized as sub-humid, sub-tropical climate with average annual rainfall of about 1456 mm. Three 3x3 km square grids were sampled intensively once a day at 49 locations each, at a spacing of 0.5 km. These intensive sampling locations were selected on the basis of different topography, soil properties and vegetation characteristics. In addition, measurements were also made at 9 locations around each intensive sampling grid at 3 km spacing to cover a 9x9 km square grid. Intensive fine scale soil moisture sampling as well as coarser scale samplings were made using both impedance probes and gravimetric analyses in the study watershed. The ground-based soil moisture samplings were conducted during the day, concurrent with the SMAP descending overpass. Analysis of soil moisture spatial variability in terms of areal mean soil moisture and the statistics of higher-order moments, i.e., the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation are presented. Results showed that the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of measured soil moisture decreased with extent scale by increasing mean soil moisture. © (2016) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

  13. Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader-scale

  14. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  15. Assessment of small-scale integrated water vapour variability during HOPE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinke, S.; Eikenberg, S.; Löhnert, U.; Dick, G.; Klocke, D.; Di Girolamo, P.; Crewell, S.

    2015-03-01

    The spatio-temporal variability of integrated water vapour (IWV) on small scales of less than 10 km and hours is assessed with data from the 2 months of the High Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction (HD(CP)2) Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE). The statistical intercomparison of the unique set of observations during HOPE (microwave radiometer (MWR), Global Positioning System (GPS), sun photometer, radiosondes, Raman lidar, infrared and near-infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the satellites Aqua and Terra) measuring close together reveals a good agreement in terms of random differences (standard deviation ≤1 kg m-2) and correlation coefficient (≥ 0.98). The exception is MODIS, which appears to suffer from insufficient cloud filtering. For a case study during HOPE featuring a typical boundary layer development, the IWV variability in time and space on scales of less than 10 km and less than 1 h is investigated in detail. For this purpose, the measurements are complemented by simulations with the novel ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic modelling framework (ICON), which for this study has a horizontal resolution of 156 m. These runs show that differences in space of 3-4 km or time of 10-15 min induce IWV variabilities on the order of 0.4 kg m-2. This model finding is confirmed by observed time series from two MWRs approximately 3 km apart with a comparable temporal resolution of a few seconds. Standard deviations of IWV derived from MWR measurements reveal a high variability (> 1 kg m-2) even at very short time scales of a few minutes. These cannot be captured by the temporally lower-resolved instruments and by operational numerical weather prediction models such as COSMO-DE (an application of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling covering Germany) of Deutscher Wetterdienst, which is included in the comparison. However, for time scales larger than 1 h, a sampling resolution of 15 min is

  16. Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

  17. A Real-Time Analysis Method for Pulse Rate Variability Based on Improved Basic Scale Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxin Chou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Base scale entropy analysis (BSEA is a nonlinear method to analyze heart rate variability (HRV signal. However, the time consumption of BSEA is too long, and it is unknown whether the BSEA is suitable for analyzing pulse rate variability (PRV signal. Therefore, we proposed a method named sliding window iterative base scale entropy analysis (SWIBSEA by combining BSEA and sliding window iterative theory. The blood pressure signals of healthy young and old subjects are chosen from the authoritative international database MIT/PhysioNet/Fantasia to generate PRV signals as the experimental data. Then, the BSEA and the SWIBSEA are used to analyze the experimental data; the results show that the SWIBSEA reduces the time consumption and the buffer cache space while it gets the same entropy as BSEA. Meanwhile, the changes of base scale entropy (BSE for healthy young and old subjects are the same as that of HRV signal. Therefore, the SWIBSEA can be used for deriving some information from long-term and short-term PRV signals in real time, which has the potential for dynamic PRV signal analysis in some portable and wearable medical devices.

  18. Describing temporal variability of the mean Estonian precipitation series in climate time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, P.; Kärner, O.

    2009-04-01

    Applicability of the random walk type models to represent the temporal variability of various atmospheric temperature series has been successfully demonstrated recently (e.g. Kärner, 2002). Main problem in the temperature modeling is connected to the scale break in the generally self similar air temperature anomaly series (Kärner, 2005). The break separates short-range strong non-stationarity from nearly stationary longer range variability region. This is an indication of the fact that several geophysical time series show a short-range non-stationary behaviour and a stationary behaviour in longer range (Davis et al., 1996). In order to model series like that the choice of time step appears to be crucial. To characterize the long-range variability we can neglect the short-range non-stationary fluctuations, provided that we are able to model properly the long-range tendencies. The structure function (Monin and Yaglom, 1975) was used to determine an approximate segregation line between the short and the long scale in terms of modeling. The longer scale can be called climate one, because such models are applicable in scales over some decades. In order to get rid of the short-range fluctuations in daily series the variability can be examined using sufficiently long time step. In the present paper, we show that the same philosophy is useful to find a model to represent a climate-scale temporal variability of the Estonian daily mean precipitation amount series over 45 years (1961-2005). Temporal variability of the obtained daily time series is examined by means of an autoregressive and integrated moving average (ARIMA) family model of the type (0,1,1). This model is applicable for daily precipitation simulating if to select an appropriate time step that enables us to neglet the short-range non-stationary fluctuations. A considerably longer time step than one day (30 days) is used in the current paper to model the precipitation time series variability. Each ARIMA (0

  19. Field Scale Studies on the Spatial Variability of Soil Quality Indicators in Washington State, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey L. Smith

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Arable lands are needed for sustainable agricultural systems to support an ever-growing human population. Soil quality needs to be defined to assure that new land brought into crop production is sustainable. To evaluate soil quality, a number of soil attributes will need to be measured, evaluated, and integrated into a soil-quality index using the multivariable indicator kriging (MVIK procedure. This study was conducted to determine the spatial variability and correlation of indicator parameters on a field scale with respect to soil quality and suitability for use with MVIK. The variability of the biological parameters decreased in the order of respiration > enzyme assays and qCO2 > microbial biomass C. The distribution frequency of all parameters except respiration were normal although the spatial distribution across the landscape was highly variable. The biological parameters showed little correlation with each other when all data points were considered; however, when grouped in smaller sections, the correlations were more consistent with observed patterns across the field. To accurately assess soil quality, and arable land use, consideration of spatial and temporal variability, soil conditions, and other controlling factors must be taken into account.

  20. Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial in vegetation records from North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott; Desprat, S.; Grigg, L.D.; Grimm, E.C.; Heusser, L.E.; Jacobs, Brian F.; Lopez-Martinez, C.; Whitlock, C.L.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    High-resolution pollen records from North America show that terrestrial environments were affected by Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) and Heinrich climate variability during the last glacial. In the western, more mountainous regions, these climate changes are generally observed in the pollen records as altitudinal movements of climate-sensitive plant species, whereas in the southeast, they are recorded as latitudinal shifts in vegetation. Heinrich (HS) and Greenland (GS) stadials are generally correlated with cold and dry climate and Greenland interstadials (GI) with warm-wet phases. The pollen records from North America confirm that vegetation responds rapidly to millennial-scale climate variability, although the difficulties in establishing independent age models for the pollen records make determination of the absolute phasing of the records to surface temperatures in Greenland somewhat uncertain. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Enabling Structured Exploration of Workflow Performance Variability in Extreme-Scale Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Stephan, Eric G.; Raju, Bibi; Altintas, Ilkay; Elsethagen, Todd O.; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

    2015-11-15

    Workflows are taking an Workflows are taking an increasingly important role in orchestrating complex scientific processes in extreme scale and highly heterogeneous environments. However, to date we cannot reliably predict, understand, and optimize workflow performance. Sources of performance variability and in particular the interdependencies of workflow design, execution environment and system architecture are not well understood. While there is a rich portfolio of tools for performance analysis, modeling and prediction for single applications in homogenous computing environments, these are not applicable to workflows, due to the number and heterogeneity of the involved workflow and system components and their strong interdependencies. In this paper, we investigate workflow performance goals and identify factors that could have a relevant impact. Based on our analysis, we propose a new workflow performance provenance ontology, the Open Provenance Model-based WorkFlow Performance Provenance, or OPM-WFPP, that will enable the empirical study of workflow performance characteristics and variability including complex source attribution.

  2. A cross-scale approach to understand drought-induced variability of sagebrush ecosystem productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, T.; Anderson, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) mortality has recently been reported in the Upper Green River Basin (Wyoming, USA) of the sagebrush steppe of western North America. Numerous causes have been suggested, but recent drought (2012-13) is the likely mechanism of mortality in this water-limited ecosystem which provides critical habitat for many species of wildlife. An understanding of the variability in patterns of productivity with respect to climate is essential to exploit landscape scale remote sensing for detection of subtle changes associated with mortality in this sparse, uniformly vegetated ecosystem. We used the standardized precipitation index to characterize drought conditions and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery (250-m resolution) to characterize broad characteristics of growing season productivity. We calculated per-pixel growing season anomalies over a 16-year period (2000-2015) to identify the spatial and temporal variability in productivity. Metrics derived from Landsat satellite imagery (30-m resolution) were used to further investigate trends within anomalous areas at local scales. We found evidence to support an initial hypothesis that antecedent winter drought was most important in explaining reduced productivity. The results indicate drought effects were inconsistent over space and time. MODIS derived productivity deviated by more than four standard deviations in heavily impacted areas, but was well within the interannual variability in other areas. Growing season anomalies highlighted dramatic declines in productivity during the 2012 and 2013 growing seasons. However, large negative anomalies persisted in other areas during the 2014 growing season, indicating lag effects of drought. We are further investigating if the reduction in productivity is mediated by local biophysical properties. Our analysis identified spatially explicit patterns of ecosystem properties altered by severe drought which are consistent with

  3. Multi-scale responses of scattering layers to environmental variability in Monterey Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urmy, Samuel S.; Horne, John K.

    2016-07-01

    A 38 kHz upward-facing echosounder was deployed on the seafloor at a depth of 875 m in Monterey Bay, CA, USA (36° 42.748‧N, 122° 11.214‧W) from 27 February 2009 to 18 August 2010. This 18-month record of acoustic backscatter was compared to oceanographic time series from a nearby data buoy to investigate the responses of animals in sound-scattering layers to oceanic variability at seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Pelagic animals, as measured by acoustic backscatter, moved higher in the water column and decreased in abundance during spring upwelling, attributed to avoidance of a shoaling oxycline and advection offshore. Seasonal changes were most evident in a non-migrating scattering layer near 500 m depth that disappeared in spring and reappeared in summer, building to a seasonal maximum in fall. At sub-seasonal time scales, similar responses were observed after individual upwelling events, though they were much weaker than the seasonal relationship. Correlations of acoustic backscatter with oceanographic variability also differed with depth. Backscatter in the upper water column decreased immediately following upwelling, then increased approximately 20 days later. Similar correlations existed deeper in the water column, but at increasing lags, suggesting that near-surface productivity propagated down the water column at 10-15 m d-1, consistent with sinking speeds of marine snow measured in Monterey Bay. Sub-seasonal variability in backscatter was best correlated with sea-surface height, suggesting that passive physical transport was most important at these time scales.

  4. Effect of small-scale ionospheric variability on GNSS radio occultation data quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Ao, C. O.; Iijima, B. A.; Kursinski, E. R.

    2015-09-01

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurements are sensitive to thin ionization layers and small-scale ionosphere structures. To evaluate error bounds and possible biases in atmospheric retrievals, we characterized ionospheric irregularities encountered in the affected profiles by analyzing the L1 signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) variability at E layer altitudes (from 90 km to 130 km). New metrics to analyze statistical effects of small-scale ionospheric irregularities on refractivity retrievals are proposed. We analyzed refractivity (N) retrievals with Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) ROs in 2011. Using refractivity from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis (NECMWF) as the reference data set, we studied statistical properties of the fractional refractivity bias (ΔN) defined by the difference (NECMWF - N)/NECMWF and averaged in the altitude range from 20 to 25 km for each individual profile. We found that (1) persistently larger variability of the L1 SNR as measured by the interquartile range (IQR) existed when the occultation tangent point was in the 90 km to 110 km altitude range than at higher E layer altitudes; (2) the upper limits on the fractional refractivity bias for COSMIC ROs are 0.06% (for daytime local time), 0.1% (for nighttime local time), and ~0.01% (for all local times); (3) distributions of ΔN are non-Gaussian (leptokurtic); (4) latitudinal distributions of small and large ΔN for different levels of ionospheric variability show large tails (NECMWF > N) occurring around the Himalaya and the Andes regions, which are possibly due to biases in ECMWF analysis. We conclude that the refractivity bias due to small-scale irregularities is small below 25 km altitude and can be neglected.

  5. Cosmic ray muon charge ratio derived from the new scaling variable model

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, D P

    1980-01-01

    The charge ratio of sea level muons has been estimated from the new scaling variable model and the CERN Intersecting Storage Ring data of Capiluppi et al. (1974) for pp to pi /sup +or-/X and pp to K/sup +or- /X inclusive reactions. The estimated muon charge ratio is found to be 1.21 and the result has been compared with the experimental data of Parker et al. (1969), Burnet et al. (1973), Ashley et al., and Muraki et al. (1979). (20 refs).

  6. Scheduling of power generation a large-scale mixed-variable model

    CERN Document Server

    Prékopa, András; Strazicky, Beáta; Deák, István; Hoffer, János; Németh, Ágoston; Potecz, Béla

    2014-01-01

    The book contains description of a real life application of modern mathematical optimization tools in an important problem solution for power networks. The objective is the modelling and calculation of optimal daily scheduling of power generation, by thermal power plants,  to satisfy all demands at minimum cost, in such a way that the  generation and transmission capacities as well as the demands at the nodes of the system appear in an integrated form. The physical parameters of the network are also taken into account. The obtained large-scale mixed variable problem is relaxed in a smart, practical way, to allow for fast numerical solution of the problem.

  7. Research into the influence of spatial variability and scale on the parameterization of hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of the research were as follows: (1) Extend the Representative Elementary Area (RE) concept, first proposed and developed in Wood et al, (1988), to the water balance fluxes of the interstorm period (redistribution, evapotranspiration and baseflow) necessary for the analysis of long-term water balance processes. (2) Derive spatially averaged water balance model equations for spatially variable soil, topography and vegetation, over A RANGE OF CLIMATES. This is a necessary step in our goal to derive consistent hydrologic results up to GCM grid scales necessary for global climate modeling. (3) Apply the above macroscale water balance equations with remotely sensed data and begin to explore the feasibility of parameterizing the water balance constitutive equations at GCM grid scale.

  8. Application of latent variable model in Rosenberg self-esteem scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Shing-On; Wu, Hui-Ping

    2013-01-01

    Latent Variable Models (LVM) are applied to Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES). Parameter estimations automatically give negative signs hence no recoding is necessary for negatively scored items. Bad items can be located through parameter estimate, item characteristic curves and other measures. Two factors are extracted with one on self-esteem and the other on the degree to take moderate views, with the later not often being covered in previous studies. A goodness-of-fit measure based on two-way margins is used but more works are needed. Results show that scaling provided by models with more formal statistical ground correlated highly with conventional method, which may provide justification for usual practice.

  9. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  10. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-05-01

    Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB).In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  11. Psychometric properties of sleep quality scale and sleep variables questionnaire in Turkish student sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail Önder

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sleep is a physiological need that affects physical and mental performances. However, the number of individuals who experience problems DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY RELATED TO sleep is increasing in VARIOUS countries. Therefore, it is important to have a short, reliable and valid measure to assess both sleep quality and sleep related variables in school-age children. This study aims to carry out the validity and reliability studies for the Sleep Quality Scale and Sleep Variables Questionnaire (SQS-SVQ used to determine sleep quality, parental control, total sleep time, mid-point of sleep and sleep efficiency and to adapt it into Turkish. The SQS-SVQ consists of seven scale items to measure sleep quality and eight questionnaire items. The validity and reliability studies of the instrument were carried out on data acquired from 4th-8th graders. Factorial validity for SQS and criterion related validity analyses were carried out for the validity of the SQS-SVQ and correlations ranged from 0.51 to 0.73. These analysis results put forth that the scale is a valid measurement tool. Internal consistency coefficient of the SQS was 0.72 and test-retest correlations of the SQS-SVQ ranged from 0.67 to 0.88. These acquired results indicated that the scale WAS reliable. Meanwhile, gender measurement invariance was tested for SQS and results indicated that gender measurement invariance was established. These results have shown that the SQS-SVQ can be used in social researches and especially in educational studies.

  12. Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern

  13. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  14. The influence of Seychelles Dome on the large scale Tropical Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; Selten, Frank; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2013-04-01

    The Seychelles Dome (SD) is the thermocline ridge just South of the equator in the Western Indian Ocean basin. It is characterized by strong atmospheric convection and a shallow thermocline and is associated with large intraseasonal convection and SST variability (Harrison and Vecchi 2001). The SD is influenced by surface and subsurface processes, such as air-sea fluxes, Ekman upwelling from wind stress curl, ocean dynamics (vertical mixing) and oceanic Rossby waves from southeastern Indian Ocean. The favoring season for a strong SD is the boreal winter, where the thermocline is most shallow. Then the southeasterly trade winds converge with the northwesterly monsoonal winds over the intertropical convergence zone and cause cyclonic wind stress curl that drives Ekman divergence and a ridging of the thermocline. It is found that the subseasonal and interranual variability of the SD is influenced by large scale events, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (Tozuka et al., 2010, Lloyd and Vecchi, 2010). The SD is enhanced by cooling events in the Western Indian Ocean and easterly winds that raise the thermocline and increase the upwelling. This can be associated with a strong Walker circulation, like negative IOD conditions or La Nina-like conditions. So far the studies focus on the origins of the SD variability, but the influence of the SD itself on regional or large scale climate is largely unknown. In this study we focus on the influence of the SD variations on the large scale tropical circulation. We analyze the covariance of the SD variations and the tropical circulation in a 200 year control imulation of the climate model EC-EARTH and perform idealized SST forced simulations to study the character of the atmospheric response and its relation to ENSO, IOD and MJO. References -Harrison, D. E. and G. A. Vecchi, 2001: January 1999 Indian Ocean cooling event. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3717-3720. -Lloyd, I. D., and G. A

  15. The complexity of millennial-scale variability in southwestern Europe during MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Dulce; Desprat, Stéphanie; Rodrigues, Teresa; Naughton, Filipa; Hodell, David; Trigo, Ricardo; Rufino, Marta; Lopes, Cristina; Abrantes, Fátima; Sánchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda

    2016-11-01

    Climatic variability of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 is examined using a new high-resolution direct land-sea comparison from the SW Iberian margin Site U1385. This study, based on pollen and biomarker analyses, documents regional vegetation, terrestrial climate and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Suborbital climate variability is revealed by a series of forest decline events suggesting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia throughout MIS 11. Only the most severe events on land are coeval with SST decreases, under larger ice volume conditions. Our study shows that the diverse expression (magnitude, character and duration) of the millennial-scale cooling events in SW Europe relies on atmospheric and oceanic processes whose predominant role likely depends on baseline climate states. Repeated atmospheric shifts recalling the positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode, inducing dryness in SW Iberia without systematical SST changes, would prevail during low ice volume conditions. In contrast, disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), related to iceberg discharges, colder SST and increased hydrological regime, would be responsible for the coldest and driest episodes of prolonged duration in SW Europe.

  16. Variability in Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV subtest performance across age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisdom, Nick M; Mignogna, Joseph; Collins, Robert L

    2012-06-01

    Normal Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS)-IV performance relative to average normative scores alone can be an oversimplification as this fails to recognize disparate subtest heterogeneity that occurs with increasing age. The purpose of the present study is to characterize the patterns of raw score change and associated variability on WAIS-IV subtests across age groupings. Raw WAIS-IV subtest means and standard deviations for each age group were tabulated from the WAIS-IV normative manual along with the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of score dispersion calculated by dividing the standard deviation by the mean and multiplying by 100. The CV further informs the magnitude of variability represented by each standard deviation. Raw mean scores predictably decreased across age groups. Increased variability was noted in Perceptual Reasoning and Processing Speed Index subtests, as Block Design, Matrix Reasoning, Picture Completion, Symbol Search, and Coding had CV percentage increases ranging from 56% to 98%. In contrast, Working Memory and Verbal Comprehension subtests were more homogeneous with Digit Span, Comprehension, Information, and Similarities percentage of the mean increases ranging from 32% to 43%. Little change in the CV was noted on Cancellation, Arithmetic, Letter/Number Sequencing, Figure Weights, Visual Puzzles, and Vocabulary subtests (test limitations as well as further our understanding of cognitive domains which remain relatively steady versus those which steadily decline.

  17. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  18. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Cohen, Joel E.

    2016-01-01

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from ‘outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954–2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related. PMID:26923210

  19. RECOVERY OF LARGE ANGULAR SCALE CMB POLARIZATION FOR INSTRUMENTS EMPLOYING VARIABLE-DELAY POLARIZATION MODULATORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, N. J.; Marriage, T. A.; Appel, J. W.; Bennett, C. L.; Eimer, J.; Essinger-Hileman, T.; Harrington, K.; Rostem, K.; Watts, D. J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Chuss, D. T. [Department of Physics, Villanova University, 800 E Lancaster, Villanova, PA 19085 (United States); Wollack, E. J.; Fixsen, D. J.; Moseley, S. H.; Switzer, E. R., E-mail: Nathan.J.Miller@nasa.gov [Observational Cosmology Laboratory, Code 665, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2016-02-20

    Variable-delay Polarization Modulators (VPMs) are currently being implemented in experiments designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background on large angular scales because of their capability for providing rapid, front-end polarization modulation and control over systematic errors. Despite the advantages provided by the VPM, it is important to identify and mitigate any time-varying effects that leak into the synchronously modulated component of the signal. In this paper, the effect of emission from a 300 K VPM on the system performance is considered and addressed. Though instrument design can greatly reduce the influence of modulated VPM emission, some residual modulated signal is expected. VPM emission is treated in the presence of rotational misalignments and temperature variation. Simulations of time-ordered data are used to evaluate the effect of these residual errors on the power spectrum. The analysis and modeling in this paper guides experimentalists on the critical aspects of observations using VPMs as front-end modulators. By implementing the characterizations and controls as described, front-end VPM modulation can be very powerful for mitigating 1/f noise in large angular scale polarimetric surveys. None of the systematic errors studied fundamentally limit the detection and characterization of B-modes on large scales for a tensor-to-scalar ratio of r = 0.01. Indeed, r < 0.01 is achievable with commensurately improved characterizations and controls.

  20. Small scale denitrification variability in riparian zones: Results from a high-resolution dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassen, Niklas; Knöller, Kay; Musolff, Andreas; Popp, Felix; Lüders, Tillmann; Stumpp, Christine

    2017-04-01

    Riparian zones are important compartments at the interface between groundwater and surface water where biogeochemical processes like denitrification are often enhanced. Nitrate loads of either groundwater entering a stream through the riparian zone or streamwater infiltrating into the riparian zone can be substantially reduced. These processes are spatially and temporally highly variable, making it difficult to capture solute variabilities, estimate realistic turnover rates and thus to quantify integral mass removal. A crucial step towards a more detailed characterization is to monitor solutes on a scale which adequately resemble the highly heterogeneous distribution and on a scale where processes occur. We measured biogeochemical parameters in a spatial high resolution within a riparian corridor of a German lowland river system over the course of one year. Samples were taken from three newly developed high-resolution multi-level wells with a maximum vertical resolution of 5 cm and analyzed for major ions, DOC and N-O isotopes. Sediment derived during installation of the wells was analyzed for specific denitrifying enzymes. Results showed a distinct depth zonation of hydrochemistry within the shallow alluvial aquifer, with a 1 m thick zone just below the water table with lower nitrate concentrations and EC values similar to the nearby river. Conservative parameters were consistent inbetween the three wells, but nitrate was highly variable. In addition, spots with low nitrate concentrations showed isotopic and microbial evidence for higher denitrification activities. The depth zonation was observed throughout the year, with stronger temporal variations of nitrate concentrations just below the water table compared to deeper layers. Nitrate isotopes showed a clear seasonal trend of denitrification activities (high in summer, low in winter). Our dataset gives new insight into river-groundwater exchange processes and shows the highly heterogeneous distribution of

  1. Millennial Scale Variability of the AMOC and its Link to Climate During the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornalley, D. J.; Oppo, D.; Keigwin, L. D.; Hall, I. R.; Moffa Sanchez, P.

    2014-12-01

    Several proxy and modelling studies suggest that there may have been considerable change in the operation the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Holocene. Yet despite its importance for regional and global climate, the Holocene history of the AMOC is poorly constrained. Improving our knowledge of past AMOC variability will contribute to our general understanding of the dynamics of ocean circulation and the role it may play in causing or amplifying climate variability on millennial timescales. We present Holocene grain-size records in depth transects from Blake Outer Ridge and Cape Hatteras, sampling the full-depth range of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the lower limb of the AMOC. These records will complement a depth-transect of grain-size records sampling the Iceland-Scotland (I-S) overflow, showing Holocene variations that reflect deglacial meltwater forcing in the early Holocene and insolation-forced trends from the middle-to-late Holocene (Thornalley et al., 2013, Climate of the Past). We will also present detailed grain-size records for the last 2,000 years, both in a depth transect of cores off Cape Hatteras, and from cores in the Iceland Basin, sampling the I-S overflow. Our extensive datasets enable us to provide a coherent synthesis of changes in the flow strength of key components of the AMOC on centennial-millennial and orbital timescales, which we can use to develop our understanding of past millennial-scale climate variability. Specific questions to be addressed include: How well coupled are Holocene trends in Iceland-Scotland overflow and the DWBC? How did I-S overflow and the AMOC vary during the last millennia, including the last ~150 years since the end of the Little Ice Age? Initial results suggest a long-term anti-phasing of the Nordic overflows, wherein mid-late Holocene weakening of the I-S overflow has been compensated for by a strengthening of Denmark Strait overflow. We will also report on pronounced

  2. Variability in results from negative binomial models for Lyme disease measured at different spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Phoebe; Waller, Lance

    2015-01-01

    Lyme disease has been the subject of many studies due to increasing incidence rates year after year and the severe complications that can arise in later stages of the disease. Negative binomial models have been used to model Lyme disease in the past with some success. However, there has been little focus on the reliability and consistency of these models when they are used to study Lyme disease at multiple spatial scales. This study seeks to explore how sensitive/consistent negative binomial models are when they are used to study Lyme disease at different spatial scales (at the regional and sub-regional levels). The study area includes the thirteen states in the Northeastern United States with the highest Lyme disease incidence during the 2002-2006 period. Lyme disease incidence at county level for the period of 2002-2006 was linked with several previously identified key landscape and climatic variables in a negative binomial regression model for the Northeastern region and two smaller sub-regions (the New England sub-region and the Mid-Atlantic sub-region). This study found that negative binomial models, indeed, were sensitive/inconsistent when used at different spatial scales. We discuss various plausible explanations for such behavior of negative binomial models. Further investigation of the inconsistency and sensitivity of negative binomial models when used at different spatial scales is important for not only future Lyme disease studies and Lyme disease risk assessment/management but any study that requires use of this model type in a spatial context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muñoz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

  4. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

  5. Mapping Submarine Groundwater Discharge - how to investigate spatial discharge variability on coastal and beach scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stieglitz, T. C.; Burnett, W. C.; Rapaglia, J.

    2008-12-01

    Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is now increasingly recognized as an important component in the water balance, water quality and ecology of the coastal zone. A multitude of methods are currently employed to study SGD, ranging from point flux measurements with seepage meters to methods integrating over various spatial and temporal scales such as hydrological models, geophysical techniques or surface water tracer approaches. From studies in a large variety of hydrogeological settings, researchers in this field have come to expect that SGD is rarely uniformly distributed. Here we discuss the application of: (a) the mapping of subsurface electrical conductivity in a discharge zone on a beach; and (b) the large-scale mapping of radon in coastal surface water to improving our understanding of SGD and its spatial variability. On a beach scale, as part of intercomparison studies of a UNESCO/IAEA working group, mapping of subsurface electrical conductivity in a beach face have elucidated the non-uniform distribution of SGD associated with rock fractures, volcanic settings and man-made structures (e.g., piers, jetties). Variations in direct point measurements of SGD flux with seepage meters were linked to the subsurface conductivity distribution. We demonstrate how the combination of these two techniques may complement one another to better constrain SGD measurements. On kilometer to hundred kilometer scales, the spatial distribution and regional importance of SGD can be investigated by mapping relevant tracers in the coastal ocean. The radon isotope Rn-222 is a commonly used tracer for SGD investigations due to its significant enrichment in groundwater, and continuous mapping of this tracer, in combination with ocean water salinity, can be used to efficiently infer locations of SGD along a coastline on large scales. We use a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup installed on a moving vessel. This tool was used in various coastal environments, e

  6. Assessing soil hydrological variability at the cm- to dm-scale using air permeameter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerten, K.; Vandersmissen, N.; Rogiers, B.; Mallants, D.

    2012-04-01

    Soils and surficial sediments are crucial elements in the hydrological cycle since they are the medium through which infiltrating precipitation percolates to the aquifer. At the same time, soil horizons and shallow stratigraphy may act as hydraulic barriers that can promote runoff or interflow and hamper deep infiltration. For most catchments little is known about the small-scale horizontal and vertical variability of soil hydrological properties. Such information is however required to calculate detailed soil water flow paths and estimate small scale spatial variability in recharge and run-off. We present the results from field air permeameter measurements to assess the small-scale variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity in heterogeneous 2-D soil profiles. To this end, several outcrops in the unsaturated zone (sandy soils with podzolisation) of an interfluve in the Kleine Nete river catchment (Campine area, Northern Belgium) were investigated using a hand-held permeameter. Measurements were done each 10 cm on ~ 2 x 1 m or ~ 2 x 0.5 m grids. The initial results of the measurements (air permeability Kair; millidarcy) are recalculated to saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks; m/s) using specific transfer functions (Loll et al., 1999; Iversen et al., 2003). Validation of the results is done with independent lab-based constant head Ks measurements. The results show that field based Ks values generally range between 10-3 m/s and 10-7 m/s within one profile, but extremely high values (up to 10-1 m/s) have been measured as well. The lowest values are found in the organic- and silt-rich Bh horizon of podzol soils observed within the profiles (~ 10-6-10-7m/s), while the highest values are observed in overlying dune sands less than 40 cm deep (up to 10-3 m/s with outliers to 10-1 m/s). Comparison of field and laboratory based Ks data reveals there is fair agreement between both methods, apart from several outliers. Scatter plots indicate that almost all points

  7. Separating different scales of motion in time series of meteorological variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eskridge, R.E.; Rao, S.T.; Porter, P.S.

    1997-01-01

    In this study, four methods are evaluated for detecting and tracking changes in time series of climate variables. The PEST algorithm and the monthly anomaly technique are shown to have shortcomings, while the wavelet transform and Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter methods are shown to be capable of separating time scales with minimal errors. The behavior of the filters are examined by transfer functions. The KZ filter, anomaly technique, and PEST were also applied to temperature data to estimate long-term trends. The KZ filter provides estimates with about 10 times higher confidence than the other methods. Advantages of the KZ filter over the wavelet transform method are that it may be applied to datasets containing missing observations and is very easy to use. 10 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  8. Millennial-scale variability in Holocene aquatic productivity from Burial Lake, Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Abbott, Mark B.; Stoner, Joseph S.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Finney, Bruce P.; Dorfman, Jason M.; Stansell, Nathan D.

    2018-05-01

    Holocene records of lacustrine primary production are commonly used to reconstruct past changes in environmental and climatic conditions. While several methods exist to infer paleoproductivity trends, few studies to date have applied multiple geochemical indices in the same core sequence from Arctic lakes to evaluate their fidelity and sensitivity to specific climate variables over long (Holocene length) timescales. In this study, we evaluate sub-century to millennial-scale fluctuations in paleoproductivity over the Holocene using geochemical (biogenic opal and sedimentary chlorin) analyses of sediments from Burial Lake in the western Brooks Range, Alaska. Large fluctuations in opal and related proxies occur at millennial timescales over the last 10,000 years. We interpret the changes in opal to result from variability in diatom productivity, which is indirectly mediated by climate primarily through changes in the duration of the ice-free growing season and the availability of limiting nutrients at this oligotrophic, tundra lake. Comparison of the opal and sedimentary chlorin record, which is correlated with TOC, shows contrasting patterns on both short (century to multi-century) and relatively long (millennial) time scales. The concentration of opal far exceeds that of TOC and variations in sediment dry bulk density, driven by changes in the accumulation of opal, are likely responsible in part for the variations in sedimentary chlorin. Further, C/N ratio values indicate a mixed algal-terrestrial source of sedimentary organic matter. This result highlights the complexity in the climatic interpretation of sedimentary chlorin as an index of whole lake production, because the signal is prone to dilution/concentration from opal and also reflects a combination of aquatic and terrestrial production. Time series analysis of the productivity records indicates the presence of a significant ∼1500-yr oscillation in opal concentration, which has been found in North Atlantic

  9. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  10. Validation of the Karolinska sleepiness scale against performance and EEG variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaida, Kosuke; Takahashi, Masaya; Akerstedt, Torbjörn; Nakata, Akinori; Otsuka, Yasumasa; Haratani, Takashi; Fukasawa, Kenji

    2006-07-01

    The Karolinska sleepiness scale (KSS) is frequently used for evaluating subjective sleepiness. The main aim of the present study was to investigate the validity and reliability of the KSS with electroencephalographic, behavioral and other subjective indicators of sleepiness. Participants were 16 healthy females aged 33-43 (38.1+/-2.68) years. The experiment involved 8 measurement sessions per day for 3 consecutive days. Each session contained the psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), the Karolinska drowsiness test (KDT-EEG alpha & theta power), the alpha attenuation test (AAT-alpha power ratio open/closed eyes) and the KSS. Median reaction time, number of lapses, alpha and theta power density and the alpha attenuation coefficients (AAC) showed highly significant increase with increasing KSS. The same variables were also significantly correlated with KSS, with a mean value for lapses (r=0.56). The KSS was closely related to EEG and behavioral variables, indicating a high validity in measuring sleepiness. KSS ratings may be a useful proxy for EEG or behavioral indicators of sleepiness.

  11. Assessing large-scale weekly cycles in meteorological variables: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sanchez-Lorenzo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have claimed to have found significant weekly cycles of meteorological variables appearing over large domains, which can hardly be related to urban effects exclusively. Nevertheless, there is still an ongoing scientific debate whether these large-scale weekly cycles exist or not, and some other studies fail to reproduce them with statistical significance. In addition to the lack of the positive proof for the existence of these cycles, their possible physical explanations have been controversially discussed during the last years. In this work we review the main results about this topic published during the recent two decades, including a summary of the existence or non-existence of significant weekly weather cycles across different regions of the world, mainly over the US, Europe and Asia. In addition, some shortcomings of common statistical methods for analyzing weekly cycles are listed. Finally, a brief summary of supposed causes of the weekly cycles, focusing on the aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and their impact on meteorological variables as a result of the weekly cycles of anthropogenic activities, and possible directions for future research, is presented.

  12. Precision for Smallholder Farmers: A Small-Scale-Tailored Variable Rate Fertilizer Application Kit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle Van Loon

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Precision agriculture technology at the hands of smallholder farmers in the developing world is often deemed far-fetched. Low-resource farmers, however, are the most susceptible to negative changes in the environment. Providing these farmers with the right tools to mitigate adversity and to gain greater control of the production process could unlock their potential and support rural communities to meet the increasing global food demand. In this study, a real-time variable rate fertilizer application system was developed and tested as an add-on kit to conventional farm machinery. In the context of low investment costs for smallholder farmers, high user-friendliness and easy installment were the main concerns for the system to be viable. The system used nitrogen (N-sensors to assess the plant nutrient status on the spot and subsequently adjust the amount of fertilizer deposited according to the plant’s needs. Test bench trials showed that the add-on kit performed well with basic operations, but more precision is required. Variability between N-sensors and metering systems, combined with power fluctuations, created inaccuracies in the resulting application rate. Nevertheless, this work is a stepping stone towards catalyzing the elaboration of more cutting-edge precision solutions to support small-scale farmers to become successful, high producing agro-entrepreneurs.

  13. Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, James J.; Dettinger, M.D.; Gehrke, F.; McIntire, T.J.; Hufford, Gary L.

    2004-01-01

    Accurate prediction of available water supply from snowmelt is needed if the myriad of human, environmental, agricultural, and industrial demands for water are to be satisfied, especially given legislatively imposed conditions on its allocation. Robust retrievals of hydrologic basin model variables (e.g., insolation or areal extent of snow cover) provide several advantages over the current operational use of either point measurements or parameterizations to help to meet this requirement. Insolation can be provided at hourly time scales (or better if needed during rapid melt events associated with flooding) and at 1-km spatial resolution. These satellite-based retrievals incorporate the effects of highly variable (both in space and time) and unpredictable cloud cover on estimates of insolation. The insolation estimates are further adjusted for the effects of basin topography using a high-resolution digital elevation model prior to model input. Simulations of two Sierra Nevada rivers in the snowmelt seasons of 1998 and 1999 indicate that even the simplest improvements in modeled insolation can improve snowmelt simulations, with 10%-20% reductions in root-mean-square errors. Direct retrieval of the areal extent of snow cover may mitigate the need to rely entirely on internal calculations of this variable, a reliance that can yield large errors that are difficult to correct until long after the season is complete and that often leads to persistent underestimates or overestimates of the volumes of the water to operational reservoirs. Agencies responsible for accurately predicting available water resources from the melt of snowpack [e.g., both federal (the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers) and state (the California Department of Water Resources)] can benefit by incorporating concepts developed herein into their operational forecasting procedures. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

  14. Design, Development and Scaling Analysis of a Variable Stiffness Magnetic Torsion Spring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Sudano

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we report on the design, modeling, experimental testing and scaling analysis of a novel MAgnetic Variable stiffnEess spRIng-Clutch (MAVERIC device, which may be used as the elastic element of Variable Stiffness Actuators (VSAs. The device, comprising two co-axial diametrically magnetized hollow cylinders, has two degrees of freedom: a rotation of the two cylinders around the common axis and a relative translation along the same axis. For small rotations, the torque arising from the magnetic interaction of the two cylinders is almost linearly proportional to their relative rotation, as in mechanical torsion springs. In addition, the stiffness of the equivalent spring can be varied continuously from a maximum value down to exactly zero by changing the axial overlap of the two cylinders. In this way the proposed device can be used both as a clutch (i.e., perfectly compliant element and as a variable stiffness torsion spring. A prototype, designed after magnetostatic FEM simulations, has been built and experimentally characterized. The developed MAVERIC has an experimentally determined maximum transmissible torque of 109.81mNm, while the calculated maximum stiffness is 110.2mNmrad−1. The amplitude of the torque-angle characteristic can be tuned linearly with a sensitivity of 12.63mNmmm−1 rad−1. Further simulations have been computed parameterizing the geometry and the number of pole pairs of the magnets. The maximum torque density reached for one pole pair is 47.21 · 103 Nm m−3, whereas for a fixed geometry similar to that of the developed prototype, the maximum torque is reached for seven pole pairs. Overall, compared to mechanical springs, MAVERIC has no fatigue or overloading issues. Compared to other magnetic couplers, torsion stiffness can be varied continuously from a maximum value down to exactly zero, when the device acts as a disengaged clutch, disconnecting the load from the actuator.

  15. Time Scales of the European Surface Air Temperature Variability: The Role of the 7-8 Year Cycle

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, S.; Tsonis, A.A.; Paluš, Milan

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 43, č. 2 (2016), s. 902-909 ISSN 0094-8276 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LH14001 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : 7-8 year cycle * air temperature variability * annual cycle amplitude * cross-scale interactions * seasonality * time scales Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.253, year: 2016

  16. Explicit Bounds to Some New Gronwall-Bellman-Type Delay Integral Inequalities in Two Independent Variables on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanwei Meng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Some new Gronwall-Bellman-type delay integral inequalities in two independent variables on time scales are established, which provide a handy tool in the research of qualitative and quantitative properties of solutions of delay dynamic equations on time scales. The established inequalities generalize some of the results in the work of Zhang and Meng 2008, Pachpatte 2002, and Ma 2010.

  17. Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary within communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a potentially rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. In particular, the inversion of physically-based radiative transfer models (RTMs) is an effective and general method for estimating plant traits from spectral measurements. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf RTM to a large database of field spectra and plant traits spanning tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, agricultural plots, arid shrublands, and tundra to identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in plant functional traits. By leveraging such a large and diverse dataset, we re-calibrate the empirical absorption coefficients underlying the PROSPECT model and expand its scope to include additional leaf biochemical components, namely leaf nitrogen content. Our work provides a key methodological contribution as a physically-based retrieval of leaf nitrogen from remote sensing observations, and provides substantial insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

  18. Similar star formation rate and metallicity variability time-scales drive the fundamental metallicity relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrey, Paul; Vogelsberger, Mark; Hernquist, Lars; McKinnon, Ryan; Marinacci, Federico; Simcoe, Robert A.; Springel, Volker; Pillepich, Annalisa; Naiman, Jill; Pakmor, Rüdiger; Weinberger, Rainer; Nelson, Dylan; Genel, Shy

    2018-06-01

    The fundamental metallicity relation (FMR) is a postulated correlation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and gas-phase metallicity. At its core, this relation posits that offsets from the mass-metallicity relation (MZR) at a fixed stellar mass are correlated with galactic SFR. In this Letter, we use hydrodynamical simulations to quantify the time-scales over which populations of galaxies oscillate about the average SFR and metallicity values at fixed stellar mass. We find that Illustris and IllustrisTNG predict that galaxy offsets from the star formation main sequence and MZR oscillate over similar time-scales, are often anticorrelated in their evolution, evolve with the halo dynamical time, and produce a pronounced FMR. Our models indicate that galaxies oscillate about equilibrium SFR and metallicity values - set by the galaxy's stellar mass - and that SFR and metallicity offsets evolve in an anticorrelated fashion. This anticorrelated variability of the metallicity and SFR offsets drives the existence of the FMR in our models. In contrast to Illustris and IllustrisTNG, we speculate that the SFR and metallicity evolution tracks may become decoupled in galaxy formation models dominated by feedback-driven globally bursty SFR histories, which could weaken the FMR residual correlation strength. This opens the possibility of discriminating between bursty and non-bursty feedback models based on the strength and persistence of the FMR - especially at high redshift.

  19. Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary among communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf radiative transfer model to a large global database of over 60,000 field spectra and plant traits to (1) comprehensively assess the accuracy of leaf trait estimation using PROSPECT spectral inversion; (2) investigate the correlations between optical traits estimable from PROSPECT and other important foliar traits such as nitrogen and lignin concentrations; and (3) identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in optical and non-optical foliar traits. Our work provides a key methodological contribution by validating physically-based retrieval of plant traits from remote sensing observations, and provides insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

  20. African aerosol and large-scale precipitation variability over West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Jingfeng; Zhang Chidong; Prospero, Joseph M

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the large-scale connection between African aerosol and precipitation in the West African Monsoon (WAM) region using 8-year (2000-2007) monthly and daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products (aerosol optical depth, fine mode fraction) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and rain type. These high-quality data further confirmed our previous results that the large-scale link between aerosol and precipitation in this region undergoes distinct seasonal and spatial variability. Previously detected suppression of precipitation during months of high aerosol concentration occurs in both convective and stratiform rain, but not systematically in shallow rain. This suggests the suppression of deep convection due to the aerosol. Based on the seasonal cycle of dust and smoke and their geographical distribution, our data suggest that both dust (coarse mode aerosol) and smoke (fine mode aerosol) contribute to the precipitation suppression. However, the dust effect is evident over the Gulf of Guinea while the smoke effect is evident over both land and ocean. A back trajectory analysis further demonstrates that the precipitation reduction is statistically linked to the upwind aerosol concentration. This study suggests that African aerosol outbreaks in the WAM region can influence precipitation in the local monsoon system which has direct societal impact on the local community. It calls for more systematic investigations to determine the modulating mechanisms using both observational and modeling approaches.

  1. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Stenni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the

  2. Fine-scale variability of isopycnal salinity in the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itoh, Sachihiko; Rudnick, Daniel L.

    2017-09-01

    This paper examines the fine-scale structure and seasonal fluctuations of the isopycnal salinity of the California Current System from 2007 to 2013 using temperature and salinity profiles obtained from a series of underwater glider surveys. The seasonal mean distributions of the spectral power of the isopycnal salinity gradient averaged over submesoscale (12-30 km) and mesoscale (30-60 km) ranges along three survey lines off Monterey Bay, Point Conception, and Dana Point were obtained from 298 transects. The mesoscale and submesoscale variance increased as coastal upwelling caused the isopycnal salinity gradient to steepen. Areas of elevated variance were clearly observed around the salinity front during the summer then spread offshore through the fall and winter. The high fine-scale variances were observed typically above 25.8 kg m-3 and decreased with depth to a minimum at around 26.3 kg m-3. The mean spectral slope of the isopycnal salinity gradient with respect to wavenumber was 0.19 ± 0.27 over the horizontal scale of 12-60 km, and 31%-35% of the spectra had significantly positive slopes. In contrast, the spectral slope over 12-30 km was mostly flat, with mean values of -0.025 ± 0.32. An increase in submesoscale variability accompanying the steepening of the spectral slope was often observed in inshore areas; e.g., off Monterey Bay in winter, where a sharp front developed between the California Current and the California Under Current, and the lower layers of the Southern California Bight, where vigorous interaction between a synoptic current and bottom topography is to be expected.

  3. A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2013-12-01

    Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the

  4. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models.

  5. Multi-scale glycemic variability: a link to gray matter atrophy and cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingran Cui

    Full Text Available Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM accelerates brain aging and cognitive decline. Complex interactions between hyperglycemia, glycemic variability and brain aging remain unresolved. This study investigated the relationship between glycemic variability at multiple time scales, brain volumes and cognition in type 2 DM.Forty-three older adults with and 26 without type 2 DM completed 72-hour continuous glucose monitoring, cognitive tests and anatomical MRI. We described a new analysis of continuous glucose monitoring, termed Multi-Scale glycemic variability (Multi-Scale GV, to examine glycemic variability at multiple time scales. Specifically, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition was used to identify five unique ultradian glycemic variability cycles (GVC1-5 that modulate serum glucose with periods ranging from 0.5-12 hrs.Type 2 DM subjects demonstrated greater variability in GVC3-5 (period 2.0-12 hrs than controls (P<0.0001, during the day as well as during the night. Multi-Scale GV was related to conventional markers of glycemic variability (e.g. standard deviation and mean glycemic excursions, but demonstrated greater sensitivity and specificity to conventional markers, and was associated with worse long-term glycemic control (e.g. fasting glucose and HbA1c. Across all subjects, those with greater glycemic variability within higher frequency cycles (GVC1-3; 0.5-2.0 hrs had less gray matter within the limbic system and temporo-parietal lobes (e.g. cingulum, insular, hippocampus, and exhibited worse cognitive performance. Specifically within those with type 2 DM, greater glycemic variability in GVC2-3 was associated with worse learning and memory scores. Greater variability in GVC5 was associated with longer DM duration and more depression. These relationships were independent of HbA1c and hypoglycemic episodes.Type 2 DM is associated with dysregulation of glycemic variability over multiple scales of time. These time-scale-dependent glycemic fluctuations

  6. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  7. Important aspects of Eastern Mediterranean large-scale variability revealed from data of three fixed observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensi, Manuel; Velaoras, Dimitris; Cardin, Vanessa; Perivoliotis, Leonidas; Pethiakis, George

    2015-04-01

    Long-term variations of temperature and salinity observed in the Adriatic and Aegean Seas seem to be regulated by larger-scale circulation modes of the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) Sea, such as the recently discovered feedback mechanisms, namely the BiOS (Bimodal Oscillating System) and the internal thermohaline pump theories. These theories are the results of interpretation of many years' observations, highlighting possible interactions between two key regions of the EMed. Although repeated oceanographic cruises carried out in the past or planned for the future are a very useful tool for understanding the interaction between the two basins (e.g. alternating dense water formation, salt ingressions), recent long time-series of high frequency (up to 1h) sampling have added valuable information to the interpretation of internal mechanisms for both areas (i.e. mesoscale eddies, evolution of fast internal processes, etc.). During the last 10 years, three deep observatories were deployed and maintained in the Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas: they are respectively, the E2-M3A, the Pylos, and the E1-M3A. All are part of the largest European network of Fixed Point Open Ocean Observatories (FixO3, http://www.fixo3.eu/). Herein, from the analysis of temperature and salinity, and potential density time series collected at the three sites from the surface down to the intermediate and deep layers, we will discuss the almost perfect anti-correlated behavior between the Adriatic and the Aegean Seas. Our data, collected almost continuously since 2006, reveal that these observatories well represent the thermohaline variability of their own areas. Interestingly, temperature and salinity in the intermediate layer suddenly increased in the South Adriatic from the end of 2011, exactly when they started decreasing in the Aegean Sea. Moreover, Pylos data used together with additional ones (e.g. Absolute dynamic topography, temperature and salinity data from other platforms) collected

  8. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  9. An ultrahigh vacuum fast-scanning and variable temperature scanning tunneling microscope for large scale imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaconescu, Bogdan; Nenchev, Georgi; de la Figuera, Juan; Pohl, Karsten

    2007-10-01

    We describe the design and performance of a fast-scanning, variable temperature scanning tunneling microscope (STM) operating from 80 to 700 K in ultrahigh vacuum (UHV), which routinely achieves large scale atomically resolved imaging of compact metallic surfaces. An efficient in-vacuum vibration isolation and cryogenic system allows for no external vibration isolation of the UHV chamber. The design of the sample holder and STM head permits imaging of the same nanometer-size area of the sample before and after sample preparation outside the STM base. Refractory metal samples are frequently annealed up to 2000 K and their cooldown time from room temperature to 80 K is 15 min. The vertical resolution of the instrument was found to be about 2 pm at room temperature. The coarse motor design allows both translation and rotation of the scanner tube. The total scanning area is about 8 x 8 microm(2). The sample temperature can be adjusted by a few tens of degrees while scanning over the same sample area.

  10. Modeling the Power Variability of Core Speed Scaling on Homogeneous Multicore Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Du

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a family of power models that can capture the nonuniform power effects of speed scaling among homogeneous cores on multicore processors. These models depart from traditional ones, which assume that individual cores contribute to power consumption as independent entities. In our approach, we remove this independence assumption and employ statistical variables of core speed (average speed and the dispersion of the core speeds to capture the comprehensive heterogeneous impact of subtle interactions among the underlying hardware. We systematically explore the model family, deriving basic and refined models that give progressively better fits, and analyze them in detail. The proposed methodology provides an easy way to build power models to reflect the realistic workings of current multicore processors more accurately. Moreover, unlike the existing lower-level power models that require knowledge of microarchitectural details of the CPU cores and the last level cache to capture core interdependency, ours are easier to use and scalable to emerging and future multicore architectures with more cores. These attributes make the models particularly useful to system users or algorithm designers who need a quick way to estimate power consumption. We evaluate the family of models on contemporary x86 multicore processors using the SPEC2006 benchmarks. Our best model yields an average predicted error as low as 5%.

  11. Methods for assessment of climate variability and climate changes in different time-space scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobanov, V.; Lobanova, H.

    2004-01-01

    Main problem of hydrology and design support for water projects connects with modern climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics as observed as well as designed. There are three main stages of this problem: - how to extract a climate variability and climate change from complex hydrological records; - how to assess the contribution of climate change and its significance for the point and area; - how to use the detected climate change for computation of design hydrological characteristics. Design hydrological characteristic is the main generalized information, which is used for water management and design support. First step of a research is a choice of hydrological characteristic, which can be as a traditional one (annual runoff for assessment of water resources, maxima, minima runoff, etc) as well as a new one, which characterizes an intra-annual function or intra-annual runoff distribution. For this aim a linear model has been developed which has two coefficients connected with an amplitude and level (initial conditions) of seasonal function and one parameter, which characterizes an intensity of synoptic and macro-synoptic fluctuations inside a year. Effective statistical methods have been developed for a separation of climate variability and climate change and extraction of homogeneous components of three time scales from observed long-term time series: intra annual, decadal and centural. The first two are connected with climate variability and the last (centural) with climate change. Efficiency of new methods of decomposition and smoothing has been estimated by stochastic modeling and well as on the synthetic examples. For an assessment of contribution and statistical significance of modern climate change components statistical criteria and methods have been used. Next step has been connected with a generalization of the results of detected climate changes over the area and spatial modeling. For determination of homogeneous region with the same

  12. The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

    1996-01-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

  13. A period-luminosity relation for Mira variables in globular clusters and its impact on the distance scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menzies, J.W.; Whitelock, P.A.

    1985-01-01

    JHKL photometry is presented for 31 red variables in 15 galactic globular clusters. The photometry of the Mira variables is used to find absolute bolometric magnitudes and an Msub(bol)-log P relation which differs from the one found for LMC Miras. This can be understood only if there is some systematic error in the globular cluster and/or LMC distance scales or if there is some fundamental difference between the cluster Miras and those in the LMC. (author)

  14. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  15. North atlantic multidecadal climate variability: An investigation of dominant time scales and processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankcombe, L.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304829838; von der Heydt, A.S.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/245567526; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467

    2010-01-01

    The issue of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic has been an important topic of late. It is clear that there are multidecadal variations in several climate variables in the North Atlantic, such as sea surface temperature and sea level height. The details of this variability, in particular

  16. Late Holocene vegetation and land-use history in Denmark: a multi-decadally resolved record from Lille Vildmose, northeast Jutland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yeloff, D.; Broekens, P.M.; Innes, J.; van Geel, B.

    2007-01-01

    A pollen analysis of a peat profile collected from Lille Vildmose, Denmark has been used to reconstruct vegetation and land-use change from the late Iron Age (ca. 690 cal. AD) to the present day. ‘Wiggle-matching’ of 34 AMS 14C dates has enabled a precise (decadal scale) chronology to be

  17. Watershed scale spatial variability in dissolved and total organic and inorganic carbon in contrasting UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, S.; Baker, A.; Hudson, N. J.

    2006-12-01

    Approximately 800 organic and inorganic carbon analyses have been undertaken from watershed scale and regional scale spatial surveys in various British catchments. These include (1) a small (urban catchment (Ouseburn, N England); (2) a headwater, lowland agricultural catchment (River Tern, C England) (3) a large UK catchment (River Tyne, ~3000 sq-km) and (4) a spatial survey of ~300 analyses from rivers from SW England (~1700 sq-km). Results demonstrate that: (1) the majority of organic and inorganic carbon is in the dissolved (DOC and DIC) fractions; (2) that with the exception of peat rich headwaters, DIC concentration is always greater than DOC; (3) In the rural River Tern, riverine DOC and DIC are shown to follow a simple end- member mixing between DIC (DOC) rich (poor) ground waters and DOC (DIC) rich (poor) riparian wetlands for all sample sites. (4) In the urbanized Ouseburn catchment, although many sample sites also show this same mixing trend, some tributaries follow a pollutant trend of simultaneous increases in both DOC and DIC. The Ouseburn is part of the larger Tyne catchment: this larger catchment follows the simple groundwater DIC- soil water DOC end member mixing model, with the exception of the urban catchments which exhibit an elevated DIC compared to rural sites. (5) Urbanization is demonstrated to increase DIC compared to equivalent rural catchments; this DIC has potential sources including diffuse source inputs from the dissolution of concrete, point sources such as trade effluents and landfill leachates, and bedrock derived carbonates relocated to the soil dissolution zone by urban development. (6) DIC in rural SW England demonstrates that spatial variability in DIC can be attributed to variations in geology; but that DIC concentrations in the SW England rivers dataset are typically lower than the urbanized Tyne catchments despite the presence of carbonate bedrock in many of the sample catchments in the SW England dataset. (7) Recent

  18. Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissling, W Daniel; Ahumada, Jorge A; Bowser, Anne; Fernandez, Miguel; Fernández, Néstor; García, Enrique Alonso; Guralnick, Robert P; Isaac, Nick J B; Kelling, Steve; Los, Wouter; McRae, Louise; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Obst, Matthias; Santamaria, Monica; Skidmore, Andrew K; Williams, Kristen J; Agosti, Donat; Amariles, Daniel; Arvanitidis, Christos; Bastin, Lucy; De Leo, Francesca; Egloff, Willi; Elith, Jane; Hobern, Donald; Martin, David; Pereira, Henrique M; Pesole, Graziano; Peterseil, Johannes; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Schigel, Dmitry; Schmeller, Dirk S; Segata, Nicola; Turak, Eren; Uhlir, Paul F; Wee, Brian; Hardisty, Alex R

    2018-02-01

    Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and

  19. Analysis of streamflow variability in Alpine catchments at multiple spatial and temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Ciria, T.; Chiogna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine watersheds play a pivotal role in Europe for water provisioning and for hydropower production. In these catchments, temporal fluctuations of river discharge occur at multiple temporal scales due to natural as well as anthropogenic driving forces. In the last decades, modifications of the flow regime have been observed and their origin lies in the complex interplay between construction of dams for hydro power production, changes in water management policies and climatic changes. The alteration of the natural flow has negative impacts on the freshwater biodiversity and threatens the ecosystem integrity of the Alpine region. Therefore, understanding the temporal and spatial variability of river discharge has recently become a particular concern for environmental protection and represents a crucial contribution to achieve sustainable water resources management in the Alps. In this work, time series analysis is conducted for selected gauging stations in the Inn and the Adige catchments, which cover a large part of the central and eastern region of the Alps. We analyze the available time series using the continuous wavelet transform and change-point analyses for determining how and where changes have taken place. Although both catchments belong to different climatic zones of the Greater Alpine Region, streamflow properties share some similar characteristics. The comparison of the collected streamflow time series in the two catchments permits detecting gradients in the hydrological system dynamics that depend on station elevation, longitudinal location in the Alps and catchment area. This work evidences that human activities (e.g., water management practices and flood protection measures, changes in legislation and market regulation) have major impacts on streamflow and should be rigorously considered in hydrological models.

  20. Landscape structure control on soil CO2 efflux variability in complex terrain: Scaling from point observations to watershed scale fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Brian L. McGlynn

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the spatial and temporal variability of soil CO2 efflux across 62 sites of a 393-ha complex watershed of the northern Rocky Mountains. Growing season (83 day) cumulative soil CO2 efflux varied from ~300 to ~2000 g CO2 m-2, depending upon landscape position, with a median of 879.8 g CO2 m-2. Our findings revealed that highest soil CO2 efflux rates were...

  1. Allometric convergence in savanna trees and implications for the use of plant scaling models in variable ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew T Tredennick

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of 'universal' scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and 'global' (i.e. interspecific scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST, Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and

  2. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schertzer

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available 1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3 was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986, NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991, five consecutive annual sessions at EGS general assemblies and two consecutive spring AGU meeting sessions. As with the other conferences and workshops mentioned above, the aim was to develop confrontation between theories and experiments on scaling/multifractal behaviour of geophysical fields. Subjects covered included climate, clouds, earthquakes, atmospheric and ocean dynamics, tectonics, precipitation, hydrology, the solar cycle and volcanoes. Areas of focus included new methods of data analysis (especially those used for the reliable estimation of multifractal and scaling exponents, as well as their application to rapidly growing data bases from in situ networks and remote sensing. The corresponding modelling, prediction and estimation techniques were also emphasized as were the current debates about stochastic and deterministic dynamics, fractal geometry and multifractals, self-organized criticality and multifractal fields, each of which was the subject of a specific general discussion. The conference started with a one day short course of multifractals featuring four lectures on a Fundamentals of multifractals: dimension, codimensions, codimension formalism, b Multifractal estimation techniques: (PDMS, DTM, c Numerical simulations, Generalized Scale Invariance analysis, d Advanced multifractals, singular statistics, phase transitions, self-organized criticality and Lie cascades (given by D. Schertzer and S. Lovejoy, detailed course notes were sent to participants shortly after the

  3. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3) was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986), NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991), five consecutive annual sessions at EGS general assemblies and two consecutive spring AGU meeting sessions. As with the other conferences and workshops mentioned above, the aim was to develop confrontation between theories and experiments on scaling/multifractal behaviour of geophysical fields. Subjects covered included climate, clouds, earthquakes, atmospheric and ocean dynamics, tectonics, precipitation, hydrology, the solar cycle and volcanoes. Areas of focus included new methods of data analysis (especially those used for the reliable estimation of multifractal and scaling exponents), as well as their application to rapidly growing data bases from in situ networks and remote sensing. The corresponding modelling, prediction and estimation techniques were also emphasized as were the current debates about stochastic and deterministic dynamics, fractal geometry and multifractals, self-organized criticality and multifractal fields, each of which was the subject of a specific general discussion. The conference started with a one day short course of multifractals featuring four lectures on a) Fundamentals of multifractals: dimension, codimensions, codimension formalism, b) Multifractal estimation techniques: (PDMS, DTM), c) Numerical simulations, Generalized Scale Invariance analysis, d) Advanced multifractals, singular statistics, phase transitions, self-organized criticality and Lie cascades (given by D. Schertzer and S. Lovejoy, detailed course notes were sent to participants shortly after the conference). This

  4. The meganism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedrich, T.; Timmermann, A.; Menviel, L.; Elison Timm, O.; Mouchet, A.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (∼22.1 )

  5. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant J. Williamson; Lynda D. Prior; Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Brett P. Murphy; David M. J. S. Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-...

  6. Evaluation of white spot syndrome virus variable DNA loci as molecular markers of virus spread at intermediate spatiotemporal scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bui Thi Minh Dieu,; Marks, H.; Zwart, M.P.; Vlak, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Variable genomic loci have been employed in a number of molecular epidemiology studies of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV), but it is unknown which loci are suitable molecular markers for determining WSSV spread on different spatiotemporal scales. Although previous work suggests that multiple

  7. Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

    2013-04-01

    East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

  8. Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

  9. Hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region and its relationships with large-scale climate anomaly patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Swierczynski, Tina; Brauer, Achim; Kämpf, Lucas; Czymzik, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Flood triggered detrital layers in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, located at the northern fringe of the European Alps (47°48'N,13°23'E), provide an important archive of regional hydroclimatic variability during the mid- to late Holocene. To improve the interpretation of the flood layer record in terms of large-scale climate variability, we investigate the relationships between observational hydrological records from the region, like the Mondsee lake level, the runoff of the lake's main inflow Griesler Ache, with observed precipitation and global climate patterns. The lake level shows a strong positive linear trend during the observational period in all seasons. Additionally, lake level presents important interannual to multidecadal variations. These variations are associated with distinct seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns. A pronounced anomalous anticyclonic center over the Iberian Peninsula is associated with high lake levels values during winter. This center moves southwestward during spring, summer and autumn. In the same time, a cyclonic anomaly center is recorded over central and western Europe. This anomalous circulation extends southwestward from winter to autumn. Similar atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with river runoff and precipitation variability from the region. High lake levels are associated with positive local precipitation anomalies in all seasons as well as with negative local temperature anomalies during spring, summer and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals that lake level, runoff and precipitation variability is related to large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in all seasons suggesting a possible impact of large-scale climatic modes, like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on hydroclimatic variability in the Lake Mondsee region. The results presented in this study can be used for a more robust interpretation of the long flood layer record from Lake Mondsee sediments

  10. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  11. Evaluating two model reduction approaches for large scale hedonic models sensitive to omitted variables and multicollinearity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    Hedonic models in environmental valuation studies have grown in terms of number of transactions and number of explanatory variables. We focus on the practical challenge of model reduction, when aiming for reliable parsimonious models, sensitive to omitted variable bias and multicollinearity. We...

  12. Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration

    OpenAIRE

    N. S. Lovenduski; M. C. Long; K. Lindsay

    2015-01-01

    We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]) on the basis of a long control simulation with a fully-coupled Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO32−] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO32−] in the tropical...

  13. Natural variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration

    OpenAIRE

    Lovenduski, N. S.; Long, M. C.; Lindsay, K.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate variability in the surface ocean carbonate ion concentration ([CO32−]) on the basis of a~long control simulation with an Earth System Model. The simulation is run with a prescribed, pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration for 1000 years, permitting investigation of natural [CO32−] variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales. We find high interannual variability in surface [CO32−] in the tropical Pacific and ...

  14. Influence of plant productivity over variability of soil respiration: a multi-scale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curiel Yuste, J.

    2009-04-01

    To investigate the role of plant photosynthetic activity on the variations in soil respiration (SR), SR data obtained from manual sampling and automatic soil respiration chambers placed on eddy flux towers sites were used. Plant photosynthetic activity was represented as Gross Primary Production (GPP), calculated from the half hourly continuous measurements of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). The role of plant photosynthetic activity over the variation in SR was investigated at different time-scales: data averaged hourly, daily and weekly were used to study the photosynthetic effect on SR dial variations (Hourly data), 15 days variations (Daily averages), monthly variations (daily and weekly averages) and seasonal variations (weekly data). Our results confirm the important role of plant photosynthetic activity on the variations of SR at each of the mentioned time-scales. The effect of photosynthetic activity on SR was high on hourly time-scale (dial variations of SR). At half of the studied ecosystems GPP was the best single predictor of dial variations of SR. However at most of the studied sites the combination of soil temperature and GPP was the best predictor of dial variations in SR. The effect of aboveground productivity over dial variations of SR lagged on the range of 5 to 15 hours, depending on the ecosystem. At daily to monthly time scale variations of SR were in general better explained with the combination of temperature and moisture variations. However, ‘jumps' in average weekly SR during the growing season yielded anomaly high values of Q10, in some cases above 1000, which probably reflects synoptic changes in photosynthates translocation from plant activity. Finally, although seasonal changes of SR were in general very well explained by temperature and soil moisture, seasonality of SR was better correlated to seasonality of GPP than to seasonality of soil temperature and/or soil moisture. Therefore the magnitude of the seasonal variation in SR was in

  15. Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Radinger

    Full Text Available Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049 and topological variables (e.g., stream order were included (AUC = +0.014. Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species' presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables to predict fish presence, (ii the

  16. Variability of sea ice deformation rates in the Arctic and their relationship with basin-scale wind forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Herman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The temporal variability of the moments of probability distribution functions (pdfs of total sea ice deformation rates in the Arctic is analyzed in the context of the basin-scale wind forcing acting on the ice. The pdfs are estimated for 594 satellite-derived sea ice deformation maps from 11 winter seasons between 1996/1997 and 2007/2008, provided by the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. The temporal scale analyzed equals 3 days. The moments of the pdfs, calculated for a range of spatial scales (12.5–900 km, have two dominating components of variability: a seasonal cycle, with deformation rates decreasing throughout winter towards a minimum in March; and a short-term, synoptic variability, strongly correlated with the area-averaged magnitude of the wind stress over the Arctic, estimated based on the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis-2 data (correlation coefficient of 0.71 for the mean deformation rate. Due to scaling properties of the moments, logarithms of higher moments are strongly correlated with the wind stress as well. Exceptions are observed only at small spatial scales, as a result of extreme deformation events, not directly associated with large-scale wind forcing. By repeating the analysis within regions of different sizes and locations, we show that the wind–ice deformation correlation is largest at the basin scale and decreases with decreasing size of the area of study. Finally, we suggest that a positive trend in seasonally averaged correlation between sea ice deformation rates and the wind forcing, present in the analyzed data, may be related to an observed decrease in the multi-year ice area in the Arctic, indicating possibly even stronger correlations in the future.

  17. Validation of the Oral Hygiene Habits Scale: Relationships with sociodemographic variables in the general and clinical population of Monterrey, Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Rodríguez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Several socioeconomic factors are associated with poor oral hygiene habits. A version of the Oral Hygiene Habits Scale (OHHS was developed in Mexico to measure these factors; however, its relationship with sociodemographic variables has not been studied. The verification of these relationships could contribute to the validation of the scale. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between oral hygiene habits and sociodemographic variables of sex, age, schooling, self-defined socioeconomic stratum, occupation and marital status in the general and clinical population of Monterrey, Mexico. Materials and Methods: A general population sample (GPS of 256 participants and a clinical sample (CPS of 240 participants were studied. The OHHS consisted of an eight-item Likert scale of 4 points ranging from 0 to 4. A descriptive correlational study was performed with a cross-sectional design. Data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Spearman correlation coefficient, Cramer's V coefficient, and multivariate aligned rank test. Results: In GPS and CPS groups, OHHS was related to sex, schooling, socioeconomic stratum, occupation and marital status, but not to age. There were no significant interactions between the samples (GPS and CPS and sociodemographic variables. Conclusion: There is a statistically significant relationship between oral hygiene habits and some sociodemographic variables in the general and clinical population. This relationship supports the validity of the OHHS.

  18. Short-term meso-scale variability of mesozooplankton communities in a coastal upwelling system (NW Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roura, Álvaro; Álvarez-Salgado, Xosé A.; González, Ángel F.; Gregori, María; Rosón, Gabriel; Guerra, Ángel

    2013-02-01

    The short-term, meso-scale variability of the mesozooplankton community present in the coastal upwelling system of the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain) has been analysed. Three well-defined communities were identified: coastal, frontal and oceanic, according to their holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, richness, and total abundance. These communities changed from summer to autumn due to a shift from downwelling to upwelling-favourable conditions coupled with taxa dependent changes in life strategies. Relationships between the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton and the resemblance matrices of meteorologic, hydrographic and community-derived biotic variables were determined with distance-based linear models (DistLM, 18 variables), showing an increasing amount of explained variability of 6%, 16.1% and 54.5%, respectively. A simplified model revealed that the variability found in the resemblance matrix of mesozooplankton was mainly described by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, the total abundance, the influence of lunar cycles, the upwelling index and the richness; altogether accounting for 64% of the total variability. The largest variability of the mesozooplankton resemblance matrix (39.6%) is accounted by the holoplankton-meroplankton ratio, a simple index that describes appropriately the coastal-ocean gradient. The communities described herein kept their integrity in the studied upwelling and downwelling episodes in spite of the highly advective environment off the Ría de Vigo, presumably due to behavioural changes in the vertical position of the zooplankton.

  19. The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Friedrich

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (~22.1° or LGM-albedo, internally generated centennial-to-millennial-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic region. Stochastic excitations of the density-driven overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas can create regional sea-ice anomalies and a subsequent reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The resulting remote atmospheric anomalies over the Hudson Bay can release freshwater pulses into the Labrador Sea and significantly increase snow fall in this region leading to a subsequent reduction of convective activity. The millennial-scale AMOC oscillations disappear if LGM bathymetry (with closed Hudson Bay is prescribed or if freshwater pulses are suppressed artificially. Furthermore, our study documents the process of the AMOC recovery as well as the global marine and terrestrial carbon cycle response to centennial-to-millennial-scale AMOC variability.

  20. Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kissling, W.D.; Ahumada, J.A.; Bowser, A.; Fernandez, M.; Fernández, N.; Garcia, E.A.; Guralnick, R.P.; Isaac, N.J.B.; Kelling, S.; Los, W.; McRae, L.; Mihoub, J.-B.; Obst, M.; Santamaria, M.; Skidmore, A.K.; Williams, K.J.; Agosti, D.; Amariles, D.; Arvanitidis, C.; Bastin, L.; De Leo, F.; Egloff, W.; Elith, J.; Hobern, D.; Martin, D.; Pereira, H.M.; Pesole, G.; Peterseil, J.; Saarenmaa, H.; Schigel, D.; Schmeller, D.S.; Segata, N.; Turak, E.; Uhlir, P.F.; Wee, B.; Hardisty, A.R.

    2018-01-01

    Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and

  1. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  2. Groundwater variability across temporal and spatial scales in the central and northeastern U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Li, B; Rodell, M; Famiglietti, JS

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Elsevier B.V. Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwate...

  3. Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, Brendan M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Palisades, NY (United States); Palakit, Kritsadapan; Duangsathaporn, Khwanchai [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Laboratory of Tropical Dendrochronology, Bangkok (Thailand); Sanguantham, Prasong; Prasomsin, Patsi [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Management, Bangkok (Thailand)

    2007-07-15

    A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years. (orig.)

  4. Three-dimensional analysis of free-electron laser performance using brightness scaled variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gullans

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available A three-dimensional analysis of radiation generation in a free-electron laser (FEL is performed in the small signal regime. The analysis includes beam conditioning, harmonic generation, flat beams, and a new scaling of the FEL equations using the six-dimensional beam brightness. The six-dimensional beam brightness is an invariant under Liouvillian flow; therefore, any nondissipative manipulation of the phase space, performed, for example, in order to optimize FEL performance, must conserve this brightness. This scaling is more natural than the commonly used scaling with the one-dimensional growth rate. The brightness-scaled equations allow for the succinct characterization of the optimal FEL performance under various additional constraints. The analysis allows for the simple evaluation of gain enhancement schemes based on beam phase space manipulations such as emittance exchange and conditioning. An example comparing the gain in the first and third harmonics of round or flat and conditioned or unconditioned beams is presented.

  5. Spatial and Temporal Variability in Biogenic Gas Accumulation and Release in The Greater Everglades at Multiple Scales of Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClellan, M. D.; Cornett, C.; Schaffer, L.; Comas, X.

    2017-12-01

    Wetlands play a critical role in the carbon (C) cycle by producing and releasing significant amounts of greenhouse biogenic gasses (CO2, CH4) into the atmosphere. Wetlands in tropical and subtropical climates (such as the Florida Everglades) have become of great interest in the past two decades as they account for more than 20% of the global peatland C stock and are located in climates that favor year-round C emissions. Despite the increase in research involving C emission from these types of wetlands, the spatial and temporal variability involving C production, accumulation and release is still highly uncertain, and is the focus of this research at multiple scales of measurement (i.e. lab, field and landscape). Spatial variability in biogenic gas content, build up and release, at both the lab and field scales, was estimated using a series of ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys constrained with gas traps fitted with time-lapse cameras. Variability in gas content was estimated at the sub-meter scale (lab scale) within two extracted monoliths from different wetland ecosystems at the Disney wilderness Preserve (DWP) and the Blue Cypress Preserve (BCP) using high frequency GPR (1.2 GHz) transects across the monoliths. At the field scale (> 10m) changes in biogenic gas content were estimated using 160 MHz GPR surveys collected within 4 different emergent wetlands at the DWP. Additionally, biogenic gas content from the extracted monoliths was used to developed a landscape comparison of C accumulation and emissions for each different wetland ecosystem. Changes in gas content over time were estimated at the lab scale at high temporal resolution (i.e. sub-hourly) in monoliths from the BCP and Water Conservation Area 1-A. An autonomous rail system was constructed to estimate biogenic gas content variability within the wetland soil matrix using a series of continuous, uninterrupted 1.2 GHz GPR transects along the samples. Measurements were again constrained with an array

  6. Using multilevel systematic sampling to study apple fruit (Malus domestica Borkh.) quality and its variability at the orchard scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez Vega, Mabel V.; Wulfsohn, Dvoralai; Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder

    2013-01-01

    sample of ‘Granny Smith’ (Malus x domestica cv. ‘Granny Smith’) apples obtained from a 17 ha orchard based on a final sample of 74 fruit. Estimates of fruit marketable yield and fruit size distribution agreed well with packing house records. The estimated marketable yield was 356.6 ± 89.2 t compared...... recommended sample sizes to accurately describe the distribution of various quality variables of apples at the orchard scale....

  7. The Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyiand the environmental macro-scale variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Espino

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses information on various macro environmental variables available since 1876 for the Southeast Pacific and more recent data on Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi (Nichols, 1920 landings and biomass in the Peruvian sea, relating them to probable areas of water masses equivalent to Cold Coastal Waters (CCW and Subtropical Surface Waters (SSW. It is concluded that the index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO presents expressions of variability that are consistent with those found for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI and that the detected changes in biomass of Jack mackerel T. murphyiin the Peruvian sea reflect changes in the availability of the fish stock associated with secular (SOI and decadal (PDO variability patterns. These fluctuations in stock availability impact fisheries in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile, which show significant variations in their landings and would have given a biased picture of the state of abundance, leading to wrong diagnoses of the real situation of the exploited stocks. These patterns of variability would also affect the appearance of El Niño, making them start in the southern hemisphere autumn or spring depending on whether the current PDO is positive or negative. Periods of high (1876 – 1925 and 1976 – 2012 and low (1926 – 1975 variability are also identified in relation to the Euclidean distance of the variances of the SOI; and in relation to the PDO a distinction is made between warm (1925 – 1944 and 1975 – 1994, cold (1945 – 1974 and tempered or interface periods (1895 – 1924 and 1995 – 2012, the latter being explained by the interaction between periods of high variability.

  8. The influence of the allometric scale on the relationship between running economy and biomechanical variables in distance runners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MP Tartaruga

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Studies have demonstrated the need for the use of parameters that diminish the effect of body mass, for intra and inter group comparison, in individuals with different masses in order to provide a different analysis on the behaviour of the relation between running economy (RE and biomechanical variables (BVs. The allometric scale is represented by a regression equation that indicates the behaviour of a physiological variable in relation to the variable mass (RE=a.xb, where x is body mass in (kg and the dimensionless coefficient a is characteristic of the species analysed, and the dimensionless exponent b determines the percentage of mass to be associated with the physiological variable. The influence of the allometric scale (b=-1; -0.75; -0.73; -0.67 on the relationship between RE and BVs - stride length (SL, relative stride length (RSL, stride rate (SR, stride time (ST, support time (SUPT and balance time (BALT - at 12 km.h-1, was analysed in nine elite runners. Factorial analysis and Pearson's Correlation Coefficient test (r with P<0.05 were used. A decrease in the explanation power of the RE was observed, with the use of the allometric exponent, due to the BVs, as well as a reduction of the correlation coefficients between SL versus RE, ST versus RE and SR versus RE. The BALT presented a higher correlation where b=-0.75. The RSL and SUPT presented non-significant correlations. The variables SL, ST, SR and BALT were the most effective predictors of the RE, Where: b=-1, the allometric scale was most efficient to predict the running performance.

  9. Closing the sea level budget on a regional scale: Trends and variability on the Northwestern European continental shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Wada, Yoshihide; van den Broeke, Michiel; Marzeion, Ben

    2016-10-28

    Long-term trends and decadal variability of sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast have been studied over the period 1958-2014. We model the spatially nonuniform sea level and solid earth response to large-scale ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes. GPS observations, corrected for the solid earth deformation, are used to estimate vertical land motion. We find a clear correlation between sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast and open ocean steric variability in the Bay of Biscay and west of Portugal, which is consistent with the presence of wind-driven coastally trapped waves. The observed nodal cycle is consistent with tidal equilibrium. We are able to explain the observed sea level trend over the period 1958-2014 well within the standard error of the sum of all contributing processes, as well as the large majority of the observed decadal sea level variability.

  10. Effects of Climate Variability and Accelerated Forest Thinning on Watershed-Scale Runoff in Southwestern USA Ponderosa Pine Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Marcos D.; Marshall, Robert M.; O'Donnell, Frances; Smith, Edward B.; Haney, Jeanmarie A.; Gori, David F.

    2014-01-01

    The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0–3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide. PMID

  11. Effects of climate variability and accelerated forest thinning on watershed-scale runoff in southwestern USA ponderosa pine forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos D Robles

    Full Text Available The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%. Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide.

  12. Effects of climate variability and accelerated forest thinning on watershed-scale runoff in southwestern USA ponderosa pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles, Marcos D; Marshall, Robert M; O'Donnell, Frances; Smith, Edward B; Haney, Jeanmarie A; Gori, David F

    2014-01-01

    The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide.

  13. Small Scale Spatial Variability of Apparent Electrical Conductivity within a Paddy Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aimrun, W.; Amin, M.S.M.; Ezrin, M.H.; Amin, M.S.M.

    2010-01-01

    Quick variability description is an important component for zone management practices. Precision farming requires topping up of only the nutrients that are lacking in the soil to attain the highest yield with the least input. The apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa) sensor is a useful tool in mapping to identify areas of contrasting soil properties. In non saline soils, ECa is a substitute measurement for soil texture. It is directly related to both water holding capacity and Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC), which are key ingredients of productivity. This sensor measures the ECa across a field quickly and gives detailed soil features (one-second interval) with few operators. Hence, a dense sampling is possible and therefore a high-resolution ECa map can be produced. This study aims to characterize the variability of soil ECa within a Malaysian paddy field with respect to the spatial and seasonal variability. The study was conducted at Block C, Sawah Sempadan, Selangor, Malaysia, for three continuous seasons. Soil ECa was collected after harvesting period. The results showed that deep ECa visualized the pattern of the former river routes clearly as continuous lines (about 45 m width) at the northern and central regions of the study area. This exploration has shown different maps with higher contrast as compared to the existing soil series map for the study area. Seasonal variability test showed that the ECa that was acquired during rainy season (collected after harvest in December to January) has the highest value as compared to another season.

  14. Decadal-scale thermohaline variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hutchinson, K

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available . This AGEM has improved accuracy compared to traditional climatologies and other proxy methods. The AGEM for the Atlantic Southern Ocean offers an ideal technique to investigate the thermohaline variability over the past two decades in a key region for water...

  15. Barriers to Investment in Utility-scale Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hu, J.; Harmsen, R.; Crijns-Graus, W.; Worrell, E.

    To effectively mitigate climate change, variable renewable electricity (VRE) is expected to substitute a great share of current fossil-fired electricity generation. However, VRE investments can be obstructed by many barriers, endangering the amount of investments needed in order to be consistent

  16. Indian monsoon variability at different time scales: Marine and terrestrial proxy records

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patnaik, R.; Gupta, A; Naidu, P.D.; Yadav, R.R.; Bhattacharyya, A; Kumar, M.

    Here, we present a review of the work done in India during 2007-2011 on various proxy records of monsoon variability preserved in the marine (Central Indian Basin, western, northern and eastern Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal) and terrestrial...

  17. ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

    2006-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

  18. Understanding Mott's law from scaling of variable-range-hopping currents and intrinsic current fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasveer, W.F.; Michels, M.A.J.

    2006-01-01

    We have used the master equation to simulate variable-range hopping (VRH) of charges in a strongly disordered d-dimensional energy landscape (d=1,2,3). The current distribution over hopping distances and hopping energies gives a clear insight into the difference between hops that occur most

  19. Using Derivative Estimates to Describe Intraindividual Variability at Multiple Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deboeck, Pascal R.; Montpetit, Mignon A.; Bergeman, C. S.; Boker, Steven M.

    2009-01-01

    The study of intraindividual variability is central to the study of individuals in psychology. Previous research has related the variance observed in repeated measurements (time series) of individuals to traitlike measures that are logically related. Intraindividual measures, such as intraindividual standard deviation or the coefficient of…

  20. Dynamical and biogeochemical control on the decadal variability of ocean carbon fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Séférian

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Several recent observation-based studies suggest that ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake has slowed down due to the impact of anthropogenic forced climate change. However, it remains unclear whether detected changes over the recent time period can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change or rather to natural climate variability (internal plus naturally forced variability alone. One large uncertainty arises from the lack of knowledge on ocean carbon flux natural variability at the decadal time scales. To gain more insights into decadal time scales, we have examined the internal variability of ocean carbon fluxes in a 1000 yr long preindustrial simulation performed with the Earth System Model IPSL-CM5A-LR. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit low-frequency oscillations that emerge from their year-to-year variability in the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. In our model, a 20 yr mode of variability in the North Atlantic air-sea carbon flux is driven by sea surface temperature variability and accounts for ~40% of the interannual regional variance. The North Pacific and the Southern Ocean carbon fluxes are also characterised by decadal to multi-decadal modes of variability (10 to 50 yr that account for 20–40% of the interannual regional variance. These modes are driven by the vertical supply of dissolved inorganic carbon through the variability of Ekman-induced upwelling and deep-mixing events. Differences in drivers of regional modes of variability stem from the coupling between ocean dynamics variability and the ocean carbon distribution, which is set by large-scale secular ocean circulation.

  1. Fossil fleet transition with fuel changes and large scale variable renewable integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Revis [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hesler, Stephen [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    Variability in demand as seen by grid-connected dispatchable generators can increase due to factors such as greater production from variable generation assets (for example, wind and solar), increased reliance on demand response or customer-driven automation, and aggregation of loads. This variability results a need for these generators to operate in a range of different modes, collectively referred to as “flexible operations.” This study is designed to inform power companies, researchers, and policymakers of the scope and trends in increasing levels of flexible operations as well as reliability challenges and impacts for dispatchable assets. Background Because there is rarely a direct monetization of the value of operational flexibility, the decision to provide such flexibility is typically dependent on unit- and region-specific decisions made by asset owners. It is very likely that much greater and more widespread flexible operations capabilities will be needed due to increased variability in demand seen by grid-connected generators, uncertainty regarding investment in new units to provide adequate operational flexibility, and the retirement of older, uncontrolled sub-critical pulverized coal units. Objective To enhance understanding of the technical challenges and operational impacts associated with dispatchable assets needed to increase operational flexibility and support variable demand. Approach The study approach consists of three elements: a literature review of relevant prior studies, analysis of detailed scenarios for evolution of the future fleet over the next 35 years, and engineering assessment of the degree and scope of technical challenges associated with transformation to the future fleet. The study approach integrated two key elements rarely brought together in a single analysis—1) long-term capacity planning, which enables modeling of unit retirements and new asset investments, and 2) unit commitment analysis, which permits examination of

  2. Soil fertility dynamics in a semiarid basin: impact of scale level in weighing the effect of the landscape variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz-Navarro, A.; Barbera, G. G.; Albaladejo, J.

    2009-01-01

    Arid and semi-arid Mediterranean soils are particularly sensitive to degradation processes, and soil fertility could play important role in restoration/conservation practices. Our objective was to study the relationships between soil and landscape at different scales in order to understand the main drivers of soil fertility on a semiarid catchment. A stratified sampling plan was carried out to take soil and landscape representative variability. Multivariate statistic techniques were used to elucidate the relationship between both. The results showed that soil fertility are positively related with density of vegetation and topographical conditions favourable to soil moisture at small scale, while negatively with topographical factors that contributed erosion dynamic on ero debility lithologies at medium and large scale. (Author) 8 refs.

  3. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2018-06-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  4. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea ice variability on monthly-to-annual time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krikken, F.; Hazeleger, W.

    2015-01-01

    The large decrease in Arctic sea ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea ice predictions on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Hence, it is important to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. This study

  5. Natural variability of atmospheric temperatures and geomagnetic intensity over a wide range of time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jon D

    2002-02-19

    The majority of numerical models in climatology and geomagnetism rely on deterministic finite-difference techniques and attempt to include as many empirical constraints on the many processes and boundary conditions applicable to their very complex systems. Despite their sophistication, many of these models are unable to reproduce basic aspects of climatic or geomagnetic dynamics. We show that a simple stochastic model, which treats the flux of heat energy in the atmosphere by convective instabilities with random advection and diffusive mixing, does a remarkable job at matching the observed power spectrum of historical and proxy records for atmospheric temperatures from time scales of one day to one million years (Myr). With this approach distinct changes in the power-spectral form can be associated with characteristic time scales of ocean mixing and radiative damping. Similarly, a simple model of the diffusion of magnetic intensity in Earth's core coupled with amplification and destruction of the local intensity can reproduce the observed 1/f noise behavior of Earth's geomagnetic intensity from time scales of 1 (Myr) to 100 yr. In addition, the statistics of the fluctuations in the polarity reversal rate from time scales of 1 Myr to 100 Myr are consistent with the hypothesis that reversals are the result of variations in 1/f noise geomagnetic intensity above a certain threshold, suggesting that reversals may be associated with internal fluctuations rather than changes in mantle thermal or magnetic boundary conditions.

  6. An Exploratory Factor Analysis of the Sexual Orientation Counselor Competency Scale: Examining the Variable of Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Shainna; Lambie, Glenn; Bloom, Zachary D.

    2017-01-01

    The Sexual Orientation Counselor Competency Scale (SOCCS), developed by Bidell in 2005, measures counselors' levels of skills, awareness, and knowledge in assisting lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) clients. In an effort to gain an increased understanding of the construct validity of the SOCCS, researchers performed an exploratory factor analysis on…

  7. Assessment of the methods for determining net radiation at different time-scales of meteorological variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni An

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available When modeling the soil/atmosphere interaction, it is of paramount importance to determine the net radiation flux. There are two common calculation methods for this purpose. Method 1 relies on use of air temperature, while Method 2 relies on use of both air and soil temperatures. Nowadays, there has been no consensus on the application of these two methods. In this study, the half-hourly data of solar radiation recorded at an experimental embankment are used to calculate the net radiation and long-wave radiation at different time-scales (half-hourly, hourly, and daily using the two methods. The results show that, compared with Method 2 which has been widely adopted in agronomical, geotechnical and geo-environmental applications, Method 1 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at shorter time-scale. Moreover, in case of longer time-scale, daily for instance, less variations of net radiation and long-wave radiation are obtained, suggesting that no detailed soil temperature variations can be obtained. In other words, shorter time-scales are preferred in determining net radiation flux.

  8. Secondary Analysis of Large-Scale Assessment Data: An Alternative to Variable-Centred Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Kui Foon; Kennedy, Kerry John

    2014-01-01

    International large-scale assessments are now part of the educational landscape in many countries and often feed into major policy decisions. Yet, such assessments also provide data sets for secondary analysis that can address key issues of concern to educators and policymakers alike. Traditionally, such secondary analyses have been based on a…

  9. Soil moisture variability across different scales in an Indian watershed for satellite soil moisture product validation

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gurjeet; Panda, Rabindra K.; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Jana, Raghavendra Belur

    2016-01-01

    Strategic ground-based sampling of soil moisture across multiple scales is necessary to validate remotely sensed quantities such as NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) product. In the present study, in-situ soil moisture data were collected

  10. Spatial variability of night temperatures at a fine scale over the Stellenbosch wine district, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valérie Bonnardot

    2012-03-01

    Significance and impact of the study: In the context of climate change, it is crucial to improve knowledge of current climatic conditions at fine scale during periods of grapevine growth and berry ripening in order to have a baseline from which to work when discussing and considering future local adaptations to accommodate to a warmer environnement.

  11. Semi-local scaling and turbulence modulation in variable property turbulent channel flows

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Patel, A.; Peeters, J.W.R.; Boersma, B.J.; Pecnik, R.

    2015-01-01

    We theoretically and numerically investigate the effect of temperature dependent density and viscosity on turbulence in channel flows. First, a mathematical framework is developed to support the validity of the semi-local scaling as proposed based on heuristic arguments by Huang, Coleman, and

  12. Seasonal and diurnal variability of N{sub 2}O emissions from a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daelman, Matthijs R.J., E-mail: m.r.j.daelman@tudelft.nl [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Voorthuizen, Ellen M. van [Royal HaskoningDHV, P.O. Box 151, 6500AD Nijmegen (Netherlands); Dongen, Udo G.J.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Volcke, Eveline I.P. [Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands)

    2015-12-01

    During nitrogen removal in conventional activated sludge processes, nitrous oxide can be emitted. With a global warming potential of 298 CO{sub 2}-equivalents it is an important greenhouse gas that affects the sustainability of wastewater treatment. The present study reports nitrous oxide emission data from a 16 month monitoring campaign on a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment. The emission demonstrated a pronounced diurnal and seasonal variability. This variability was compared with the variability of a number of process variables that are commonly available on a municipal wastewater treatment plant. On a seasonal timescale, the occurrence of peaks in the nitrite concentration correlated strongly with the emission. The diurnal trend of the emission coincided with the diurnal trend of the nitrite and nitrate concentrations in the tank, suggesting that suboptimal oxygen concentrations may induce the production of nitrous oxide during both nitrification and denitrification. This study documents an unprecedented dataset that could serve as a reference for further research. - Highlights: • Unique dataset of long-term nitrous oxide emission from activated sludge tanks • Emission exhibited pronounced diurnal variability, superimposed on seasonal trend • Seasonal nitrous oxide emission trend correlated with daily nitrite peaks • Emission’s diurnal trend suggests suboptimal oxygen concentrations as cause.

  13. Offshore Variability in Critical Weather Conditions in Large-Scale Wind Based Danish Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    of the variability for the 2020 Danish power system, one can see that in the worst case, up to 1500 MW of power can be lost in 30 minutes. We present results showing how this issue is partially solved by the new High Wind Storm Controller presented by Siemens in the TWENTIES project.......Offshore wind power has a significant development potential, especially in North Europe. The geographical concentration of offshore wind power leads to increased variability and in the case of critical weather conditions it may lead to sudden and considerable loss of production. In this context......, the chances of losing several GW of wind power due to critical weather conditions in a very short time period could potentially jeopardize the whole system’s reliability and stability. Forecasting such events is not trivial and the results so far are not encouraging. When assessing the impact...

  14. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  15. Kilometric Scale Modeling of the North West European Shelf Seas: Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Internal Tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guihou, K.; Polton, J.; Harle, J.; Wakelin, S.; O'Dea, E.; Holt, J.

    2018-01-01

    The North West European Shelf break acts as a barrier to the transport and exchange between the open ocean and the shelf seas. The strong spatial variability of these exchange processes is hard to fully explore using observations, and simulations generally are too coarse to simulate the fine-scale processes over the whole region. In this context, under the FASTNEt program, a new NEMO configuration of the North West European Shelf and Atlantic Margin at 1/60° (˜1.8 km) has been developed, with the objective to better understand and quantify the seasonal and interannual variability of shelf break processes. The capability of this configuration to reproduce the seasonal cycle in SST, the barotropic tide, and fine-resolution temperature profiles is assessed against a basin-scale (1/12°, ˜9 km) configuration and a standard regional configuration (7 km resolution). The seasonal cycle is well reproduced in all configurations though the fine-resolution allows the simulation of smaller scale processes. Time series of temperature at various locations on the shelf show the presence of internal waves with a strong spatiotemporal variability. Spectral analysis of the internal waves reveals peaks at the diurnal, semidiurnal, inertial, and quarter-diurnal bands, which are only realistically reproduced in the new configuration. Tidally induced pycnocline variability is diagnosed in the model and shown to vary with the spring neap cycle with mean displacement amplitudes in excess of 2 m for 30% of the stratified domain. With sufficiently fine resolution, internal tides are shown to be generated at numerous bathymetric features resulting in a complex pycnocline displacement superposition pattern.

  16. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2018-06-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  17. Thermal infrared imagery as a tool for analysing the variability of surface saturated areas at various temporal and spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Barbara; Antonelli, Marta; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Surface saturated areas are important for the on- and offset of hydrological connectivity within the hillslope-riparian-stream continuum. This is reflected in concepts such as variable contributing areas or critical source areas. However, we still lack a standardized method for areal mapping of surface saturation and for observing its spatiotemporal variability. Proof-of-concept studies in recent years have shown the potential of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery to record surface saturation dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales. Thermal infrared imagery is thus a promising alternative to conventional approaches, such as the squishy boot method or the mapping of vegetation. In this study we use TIR images to investigate the variability of surface saturated areas at different temporal and spatial scales in the forested Weierbach catchment (0.45 km2) in western Luxembourg. We took TIR images of the riparian zone with a hand-held FLIR infrared camera at fortnightly intervals over 18 months at nine different locations distributed over the catchment. Not all of the acquired images were suitable for a derivation of the surface saturated areas, as various factors influence the usability of the TIR images (e.g. temperature contrasts, shadows, fog). Nonetheless, we obtained a large number of usable images that provided a good insight into the dynamic behaviour of surface saturated areas at different scales. The images revealed how diverse the evolution of surface saturated areas can be throughout the hydrologic year. For some locations with similar morphology or topography we identified diverging saturation dynamics, while other locations with different morphology / topography showed more similar behaviour. Moreover, we were able to assess the variability of the dynamics of expansion / contraction of saturated areas within the single locations, which can help to better understand the mechanisms behind surface saturation development.

  18. Large Scale Variability of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic and Peripheral Seas: Relationships with Sea Ice, Temperature, Clouds, and Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Cota, Glenn F.

    2004-01-01

    Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.

  19. Scales and sources of pH and dissolved oxygen variability in a shallow, upwelling-driven ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, C. A.; Martz, T.; Levin, L. A.

    2011-12-01

    In the coastal zone extreme variability in carbonate chemistry and oxygen is driven by fluctuations in temperature, salinity, air-sea gas exchange, mixing processes, and biology. This variability appears to be magnified in upwelling-driven ecosystems where low oxygen and low pH waters intrude into shallow depths. The oxygen and carbon chemistry signal can be further confounded by highly productive ecosystems such as kelp beds where photosynthesis and respiration consume and release significant amounts of dissolved inorganic carbon and oxygen. This variability poses a challenge for scientists assessing the impacts of climate change on nearshore ecosystems. We deployed physical & biogeochemical sensors in order to observe these processes in situ. The "SeapHOx" instruments used in this study consist of a modified Honeywell Durafet° ISFET pH sensor, an Aanderra Optode Oxygen sensor, and a SBE-37 conductivity, temperature, pressure sensor. The instruments were deployed on and around the La Jolla Kelp Forest at a variety of depths. Our goals were to (a) characterize the link between pH and oxygen and identify the magnitude of pH and oxygen variability over a range of intra-annual time scales and (b) investigate spatial patterns of pH and oxygen variability associated with depth, proximity to shore, and presence of kelp. Results thus far reveal a strong relationship between oxygen and pH. Temporal variability is greatest at the semidiurnal frequency where pH (at 7 m) can range up to 0.3 units and oxygen can change 50% over 6 h. Diurnal variability is a combination of the diurnal tidal component and diel cycles of production and respiration. Event-scale dynamics associated with upwelling can maintain pH and oxygen below 7.8 units and 200 μmol kg-1, respectively, for multiple days. Frequent current reversals drive changes in the observed oxygen and pH variability. When alongshore currents are flowing southward, driven by upwelling-favorable winds, the magnitude of

  20. A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

    2018-05-01

    In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

  1. Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

    1998-03-01

    The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

  2. Millennial-scale climate variability during the Last Glacial period in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Seltzer, G. O.; Stevens, L. R.

    2010-04-01

    Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ˜60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.

  3. Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

  4. Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Peleg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall's spatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and satellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires furthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a new super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with two side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km2 study area near Kibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a detailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall variability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote sensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we present the analysis of the first year's record collected from this network and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study area. The gauge–rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were examined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of the inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale and increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor (VRF, representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain stations per pixel, ranged from 1.6% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07% for the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations are needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF < 5% on a typical radar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall was mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge sampling error contributed up to 20% to the total difference. The ratio of radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the error distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min timescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar errors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10 min should be used for

  5. Accounting for Unresolved Spatial Variability in Large Scale Models: Development and Evaluation of a Statistical Cloud Parameterization with Prognostic Higher Order Moments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Pincus

    2011-05-17

    This project focused on the variability of clouds that is present across a wide range of scales ranging from the synoptic to the millimeter. In particular, there is substantial variability in cloud properties at scales smaller than the grid spacing of models used to make climate projections (GCMs) and weather forecasts. These models represent clouds and other small-scale processes with parameterizations that describe how those processes respond to and feed back on the largescale state of the atmosphere.

  6. Short time-scale optical variability properties of the largest AGN sample observed with Kepler/K2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranzana, E.; Körding, E.; Uttley, P.; Scaringi, S.; Bloemen, S.

    2018-05-01

    We present the first short time-scale (˜hours to days) optical variability study of a large sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) observed with the Kepler/K2 mission. The sample contains 252 AGN observed over four campaigns with ˜30 min cadence selected from the Million Quasar Catalogue with R magnitude <19. We performed time series analysis to determine their variability properties by means of the power spectral densities (PSDs) and applied Monte Carlo techniques to find the best model parameters that fit the observed power spectra. A power-law model is sufficient to describe all the PSDs of our sample. A variety of power-law slopes were found indicating that there is not a universal slope for all AGNs. We find that the rest-frame amplitude variability in the frequency range of 6 × 10-6-10-4 Hz varies from 1to10 per cent with an average of 1.7 per cent. We explore correlations between the variability amplitude and key parameters of the AGN, finding a significant correlation of rest-frame short-term variability amplitude with redshift. We attribute this effect to the known `bluer when brighter' variability of quasars combined with the fixed bandpass of Kepler data. This study also enables us to distinguish between Seyferts and blazars and confirm AGN candidates. For our study, we have compared results obtained from light curves extracted using different aperture sizes and with and without detrending. We find that limited detrending of the optimal photometric precision light curve is the best approach, although some systematic effects still remain present.

  7. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    A strategic task assigned to large-scale transport models is to forecast the demand for transport over long periods of time to assess transport projects. However, by modelling complex systems transport models have an inherent uncertainty which increases over time. As a consequence, the longer...... the period forecasted the less reliable is the forecasted model output. Describing uncertainty propagation patterns over time is therefore important in order to provide complete information to the decision makers. Among the existing literature only few studies analyze uncertainty propagation patterns over...

  8. Ionospheric response to variable electric fields in small-scale auroral structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Lanchester

    1998-10-01

    Full Text Available High time and space resolution optical and radar measurements have revealed the influence of electric fields on E-region electron density profiles in small-scale auroral structures. Large electric fields are present adjacent to auroral filaments produced by monoenergetic electron fluxes. The ionisation profiles measured within and beside the auroral filaments show the effects of plasma convection due to electric fields as well as the consequences of the response time to large and dynamic fluxes of energetic electrons. Without high-resolution optical measurements, the interpretation of the radar data is limited.Key words. Auroral ionosphere · Ionosphere-magnetosphere interactions · EISCAT

  9. Ionospheric response to variable electric fields in small-scale auroral structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Lanchester

    Full Text Available High time and space resolution optical and radar measurements have revealed the influence of electric fields on E-region electron density profiles in small-scale auroral structures. Large electric fields are present adjacent to auroral filaments produced by monoenergetic electron fluxes. The ionisation profiles measured within and beside the auroral filaments show the effects of plasma convection due to electric fields as well as the consequences of the response time to large and dynamic fluxes of energetic electrons. Without high-resolution optical measurements, the interpretation of the radar data is limited.

    Key words. Auroral ionosphere · Ionosphere-magnetosphere interactions · EISCAT

  10. A critical oscillation constant as a variable of time scales for half-linear dynamic equations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2010), s. 237-256 ISSN 0139-9918 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB100190701 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scale * half-linear equation * (non)oscillation criteria * Hille-Nehari criteria * Kneser criteria * critical constant * oscillation constant * Hardy inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.316, year: 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.2478%2Fs12175-010-0009-7

  11. Seasonal and scale-dependent variability in nutrient- and allelopathy-mediated macrophyte–phytoplankton interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lombardo P.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available macrophyte–phytoplankton interactions were investigated using a dual laboratory and field approach during a growing season, with responses quantified as changes in biomass. Short-term, close-range interactions in laboratory microcosms always led to mutual exclusion of macrophytes (Elodea canadensis or Ceratophyllum demersum and algae (Raphidocelis subcapitata, Fistulifera pelliculosa or cyanobacteria (Synechococcus leopoliensis, suggesting regulation by positive feedback mechanisms, progressively establishing and reinforcing a “stable state”. Laboratory results suggest that close-range regulation of R. subcapitata and F. pelliculosa by macrophytes was primarily via nutrient (N, P mediation. Sprig-produced allelochemicals may have contributed to inhibition of S. leopoliensis in C. demersum presence, while S. leopoliensis was apparently enhanced by nutrients leaked by subhealthy (discolored leaves; biomass loss E. canadensis. Seasonal changes in algal growth suppression were correlated with sprig growth. Marginal differences in in situ phytoplankton patterns inside and outside monospecific macrophyte stands suggest that the nutrient- and/or allelopathy-mediated close-range mechanisms observed in the laboratory did not propagate at the macrophyte-stand scale. Factors operating at a larger scale (e.g., lake trophic state, extent of submerged vegetation coverage appear to override in situ macrophyte–phytoplankton close-range interactions.

  12. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathbout, Shifa; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier; Bech, Joan; Rodrigo, Fernando S.

    2018-02-01

    This paper analyses the observed spatiotemporal characteristics of drought phenomenon in Syria using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Temporal variability of drought is calculated for various time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) for 20 weather stations over the 1961-2012 period. The spatial patterns of drought were identified by applying a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the SPI and SPEI values at different time scales. The results revealed three heterogeneous and spatially well-defined regions with different temporal evolution of droughts: 1) Northeastern (inland desert); 2) Southern (mountainous landscape); 3) Northwestern (Mediterranean coast). The evolutionary characteristics of drought during 1961-2012 were analysed including spatial and temporal variability of SPI and SPEI, the frequency distribution, and the drought duration. The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test applied to the SPI and SPEI series indicate prevailing significant negative trends (drought) at all stations. Both drought indices have been correlated both on spatial and temporal scales and they are highly comparable, especially, over a 12 and 24 month accumulation period. We concluded that the temporal and spatial characteristics of the SPI and SPEI can be used for developing a drought intensity - areal extent - and frequency curve that assesses the variability of regional droughts in Syria. The analysis of both indices suggests that all three regions had a severe drought in the 1990s, which had never been observed before in the country. Furthermore, the 2007-2010 drought was the driest period in the instrumental record, happening just before the onset of the recent conflict in Syria.

  13. Characterization of meter-scale spatial variability of riverbed hydraulic conductivity in a lowland river (Aa River, Belgium)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghysels, Gert; Benoit, Sien; Awol, Henock; Jensen, Evan Patrick; Debele Tolche, Abebe; Anibas, Christian; Huysmans, Marijke

    2018-04-01

    An improved general understanding of riverbed heterogeneity is of importance for all groundwater modeling studies that include river-aquifer interaction processes. Riverbed hydraulic conductivity (K) is one of the main factors controlling river-aquifer exchange fluxes. However, the meter-scale spatial variability of riverbed K has not been adequately mapped as of yet. This study aims to fill this void by combining an extensive field measurement campaign focusing on both horizontal and vertical riverbed K with a detailed geostatistical analysis of the meter-scale spatial variability of riverbed K . In total, 220 slug tests and 45 standpipe tests were performed at two test sites along the Belgian Aa River. Omnidirectional and directional variograms (along and across the river) were calculated. Both horizontal and vertical riverbed K vary over several orders of magnitude and show significant meter-scale spatial variation. Horizontal K shows a bimodal distribution. Elongated zones of high horizontal K along the river course are observed at both sections, indicating a link between riverbed structures, depositional environment and flow regime. Vertical K is lognormally distributed and its spatial variability is mainly governed by the presence and thickness of a low permeable organic layer at the top of the riverbed. The absence of this layer in the center of the river leads to high vertical K and is related to scouring of the riverbed by high discharge events. Variograms of both horizontal and vertical K show a clear directional anisotropy with ranges along the river being twice as large as those across the river.

  14. Small-scale spatial variability of phenoxy acid mineralization potentials in transition zones with a multidisciplinary approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pazarbasi, Meric Batioglu

    The phenoxy acid group of herbicides is widely used to control broadleaf weeds, and it contaminates groundwater and surface water by leaching from agricultural soil or landfills. Due to the distinct vertical and horizontal gradients in nutrients and hydrologic exchange in transition zones...... in two transition zones, (1) the interfaces of unsaturated and saturated zones and (2) groundwater and surface water. Small-scale spatial variability of phenoxy acids was previously shown in topsoil; however, such small-scale studies are scarce in subsurface environments. We therefore studied the factors...... classes in the different mineralization potentials of discharge zones. Understanding of the natural attenuation potential of groundwater-surface water transition zones is important for stream water protection. In landfill-impacted groundwater-surface water interface, we further analyzed bacterial...

  15. Time-variable stress transfer across a megathrust from seismic to Wilson cycle scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenau, Matthias; Angiboust, Samuel; Moreno, Marcos; Schurr, Bernd; Oncken, Onno

    2013-04-01

    During the lifetime of a convergent plate margin stress transfer across the plate interface (a megathrust) can be expected to vary at multiple timescales. At short time scales (years to decades), a subduction megathrust interface appears coupled (accumulating shear stress) at shallow depth (seismogenic zone proportional to effective normal load but also to relative shear stress. For areas of near complete stress drop locking might systematically decrease over the interseismic period from >80-95 % shortly after an earthquake to backslip at significant fractions of plate convergence rate (non-volcanic tremor and slow slip below the seismogenic zone represent short term episodes of metamorphic fluid infiltration into the shallow megathrust. A megathrust fault valve mechanism clocked by the greatest earthquakes then accounts for cyclic fluid pressure build up and drainage at sub-seismic cycle scale. As pore pressure dynamics are controlled primarily by permeability which in turn is controlled by structure and material properties, then more long term coupling transients associated with structural evolution of the plate margin can be implied. Fluid controlled transients might interfere with transients and secular trends resulting from changes in material strength and plate tectonic forces over the Wilson cycle resulting in a multispectral stress-transfer pattern associated with convergent margin evolution. Because of the viscous damping effect of the underlying asthenosphere, however, only longterm transients (periods >1-10 ka) are transmitted into the engaged plates. We therefore speculate that the multispectral nature of stress transfer across a megathrust filtered through the asthenosphere explains transient fault activity in some intraplate settings.

  16. Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

  17. Pseudochazara amymone (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae in Albania: Variability analysis, androconial scales and new distributional data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvain Cuvelier

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available For the first time a comparison of variable external characters of a series of males and females of Pseudochazara amymone (Brown, 1976 from southern Albania is conducted. Pseudochazara amymone, flying together with P. mniszechii tisiphone (Brown, 1980, was local and quite common in steep valleys on ophiolite substrate on two separate mountains, one of which is a recently discovered locality by Eckweiler (2012, while the other one is a new locality. An analysis of external characters of all specimens from the two localities suggests no statistically significant differences. In the field, patrolling P. amymone males are easily distinguished from P. mniszechii tisiphone males but this is not the case for females, and therefore we provide determination keys for males and females of these two species. These are based on a statistical analysis of a specimen series from one Albanian P. mniszechii tisiphone population compared with all P. amymone in this study. Photographs of androconia, copula and some extreme forms of P. amymone are presented. To encourage further research in this poorly explored country a map is included, showing all historical records of Papilionoidea from literature, including our own observations.

  18. Large-Scale Liquid Hydrogen Testing of Variable Density Multilayer Insulation with a Foam Substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J. J.; Hastings, L.

    2001-01-01

    The multipurpose hydrogen test bed (MHTB), with an 18-cu m liquid hydrogen tank, was used to evaluate a combination foam/multilayer combination insulation (MLI) concept. The foam element (Isofoam SS-1171) insulates during ground hold/ascent flight, and allowed a dry nitrogen purge as opposed to the more complex/heavy helium purge subsystem normally required. The 45-layer MLI was designed for an on-orbit storage period of 45 days. Unique WI features include a variable layer density, larger but fewer double-aluminized Mylar perforations for ascent to orbit venting, and a commercially established roll-wrap installation process that reduced assembly man-hours and resulted in a roust, virtually seamless MLI. Insulation performance was measured during three test series. The spray-on foam insulation (SOFI) successfully prevented purge gas liquefaction within the MLI and resulted in the expected ground hold heat leak of 63 W/sq m. The orbit hold tests resulted in heat leaks of 0.085 and 0.22 W/sq m with warm boundary temperatures of 164 and 305 K, respectively. Compared to the best previously measured performance with a traditional MLI system, a 41-percent heat leak reduction with 25 fewer MLI layers was achieved. The MHTB MLI heat leak is half that calculated for a constant layer density MLI.

  19. Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varanka, Dalia; Jiang, Bin; Yao, Xiaobai

    2010-01-01

    Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

  20. Basin-scale variability in plankton biomass and community metabolism in the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, W. G.; Arístegui, J.; Head, E. J. H.; Li, W. K. W.; Longhurst, A. R.; Sameoto, D. D.

    Three trans-Atlantic oceanographic surveys (Nova Scotia to Canary Islands) were carried out during fall 1992 and spring 1993 to describe the large-scale variability in hydrographic, chemical and biological properties of the upper water column of the subtropical gyre and adjacent waters. Significant spatial and temporal variability characterized a number of the biological pools and rate processes whereas others were relatively invariant. Systematic patterns were observed in the zonal distribution of some properties. Most notable were increases (eastward) in mixed-layer temperature and salinity, depths of the nitracline and chlorophyll- a maximum, regenerated production (NH 4 uptake) and bacterial production. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, mesozooplankton biomass and new production (NO 3 uptake) decreased (eastward). Bacterial biomass, primary production, and community respiration exhibited no discernible zonal distribution patterns. Seasonal variability was most evident in hydrography (cooler/fresher mixed-layer in spring), and chemistry (mixed-layer DIC concentration higher and nitracline shallower in spring) although primary production and bacterial production were significantly higher in spring than in fall. In general, seasonal variability was greater in the west than in the east; seasonality in most properties was absent west of Canary Islands (˜20°W). The distribution of autotrophs could be reasonably well explained by hydrography and nutrient structure, independent of location or season. Processes underlying the distribution of the microheterophs, however, were less clear. Heterotrophic biomass and metabolism was less variable than autotrophs and appeared to dominate the upper ocean carbon balance of the subtropical North Atlantic in both fall and spring. Geographical patterns in distribution are considered in the light of recent efforts to partition the ocean into distinct "biogeochemical provinces".

  1. Small scale temporal variability in the phytoplankton of Independencia Bay, Pisco, Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noemí Ochoa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variations at small scale of the coastal marine phytoplankton assemblages were studied. Water samples were collected at a fixed station in Bahia Independencia (Pisco-Peru. The sampling took place in the morning (08:00 h. and afternoon (15:00 h over a period of 29 days (March 28 to April 25, 1988. Surface temperatures also were taken, fluctuating from 15,4 °C to 17,2 °C. Diatoms were the principal component of the phytoplankton community and were more related with the total of phytoplankton. Other groups as Dinoflagellates, Coccolitophorids, Silicoflagellates and small flagellates were present but were less important. Skeletonema costatum was the dominant specie during the first nine days of sampling, after that it was substituted by Thalassionema nitzschioides, which remained as dominant until the end of the study. Small variation in species composition but large fluctuations in density of phytoplankton were recorded over a period of few hours. Small increments in temperature influenced in the phytoplankton assemblages.

  2. Identifying the Source of Large-Scale Atmospheric Variability in Jupiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orton, Glenn

    2011-01-01

    We propose to use the unique mid-infrared filtered imaging and spectroscopic capabilities of the Subaru COMICS instrument to determine the mechanisms associated with recent unusual rapid albedo and color transformations of several of Jupiter's bands, particularly its South Equatorial Belt (SEB), as a means to understand the coupling between its dynamics and chemistry. These observations will characterize the temperature, degree of cloud cover, and distribution of minor gases that serve as indirect tracers of vertical motions in regions that will be undergoing unusual large-scale changes in dynamics and chemistry: the SEB, as well as regions near the equator and Jupiter's North Temperate Belt. COMICS is ideal for this investigation because of its efficiency in doing both imaging and spectroscopy, its 24.5-mum filter that is unique to 8-meter-class telescopes, its wide field of view that allows imaging of nearly all of Jupiter's disk, coupled with a high diffraction-limited angular resolution and optimal mid-infrared atmospheric transparency.

  3. Holocene Millennial-scale Surface and Bottom Water Variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean: Foraminiferal Assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassen, S. J.; Richter, T. O.; de Stigter, H. C.; van Weering, T. C. E.; de Haas, H.

    A high-resolution sediment core from Feni Drift (ENAM9606, 56N 14W, 2543 m wa- ter depth) was investigated for planktonic and benthic foraminiferal assemblages dur- ing the last 12,000 years. During the Preboreal, peak abundances of T.quinqueloba indicate the passage of the Arctic front over the core site. Holocene planktonic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual warming trend of surface water masses punctuated by a major cooling (8,200ky event s.l.), and possibly a slight cooling dur- ing the last 3,000 years. The interval from 10 to 5kyrs shows higher and fluctuating abundances of T.quinqueloba and G.bulloides, which suggest proximity of the subarc- tic front and enhanced spring blooms compared to the upper Holocene. Abundance peaks of N.pachyderma(s) and/or T.quinqueloba indicate a series of millennial-scale cooling events during the entire Holocene, which can be correlated to similar episodes previously described from other locations in the North Atlantic and Norwegian- Greenland Sea. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages indicate a gradual transition from seasonal, spring-bloom related food supply in the Lower Holocene (dominance of the phytodetritus species E.exigua) to possibly lower, but more sustained food supply in the Upper Holocene (dominance of C.obtusa and C.laevigata).

  4. The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

    2017-06-14

    Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. Interannual variability of Central European mean temperature in January / February and its relation to the large-scale circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werner, P.C.; Storch, H. von

    1993-01-01

    The Central European temperature distribution field, as given by 11 stations (Fanoe, Hamburg, Potsdam, Jena, Frankfurt, Uccle, Hohenpeissenberg, Praha, Wien, Zuerich and Geneve), is analysed with respect to its year-to-year variability. January-February (JF) average temperatures are considered for the interval 1901-80. An Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis reveals that the JF temperature variability is almost entirely controlled by one EOF with uniform sign. The second EOF represents only 7% of the total variance and describes a north-south gradient. The time coefficient of the first EOF is almost stationary whereas the second pattern describes a slight downward trend at the northern stations and a slight upward trend at the southern stations. The relationship of the temperature field to the large-scale circulation, represented by the North Atlantic/European sea-level pressure (SLP) field, is investigated by means of a Canonical Correlation (CCA) Analysis. Two CCA pairs are identified which account for most of the temperature year-to-year variance and which suggest plausible mechanisms. The CCA pairs fail, however, to consistently link the long-term temperature trends to changes in the large-scale circulation. In the output of a 100-year run with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (ECHAM1/LSG), the same CCA pairs are found but the strength of the link between Central European temperature and North Atlantic SLP is markedly weaker than in the observed data. (orig.)

  6. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  7. Physiologic variability at the verge of systemic inflammation: multi-scale entropy of heart rate variability is affected by very low doses of endotoxin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlitz, Georg N.; Sanders, Renee L.; Cheung, Nora H.; Coyle, Susette M.; Griffel, Benjamin; Macor, Marie A.; Lowry, Stephen F.; Calvano, Steve E.; Gale, Stephen C.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Human injury or infection induces systemic inflammation with characteristic neuro-endocrine responses. Fluctuations in autonomic function during inflammation are reflected by beat-to-beat variation in heart rate, termed heart rate variability (HRV). In the present study, we determine threshold doses of endotoxin needed to induce observable changes in markers of systemic inflammation, we investigate whether metrics of HRV exhibit a differing threshold dose from other inflammatory markers, and we investigate the size of data sets required for meaningful use of multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis of HRV. Methods Healthy human volunteers (n=25) were randomized to receive placebo (normal saline) or endotoxin/lipopolysaccharide (LPS): 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, or 2.0 ng/kg administered intravenously. Vital signs were recorded every 30 minutes for 6 hours and then at 9, 12, and 24 hours after LPS. Blood samples were drawn at specific time points for cytokine measurements. HRV analysis was performed using EKG epochs of 5 minutes. MSE for HRV was calculated for all dose groups to scale factor 40. Results The lowest significant threshold dose was noted in core temperature at 0.25ng/kg. Endogenous TNF-α and IL-6 were significantly responsive at the next dosage level (0.5ng/kg) along with elevations in circulating leukocytes and heart rate. Responses were exaggerated at higher doses (1 and 2 ng/kg). Time domain and frequency domain HRV metrics similarly suggested a threshold dose, differing from placebo at 1.0 and 2.0 ng/kg, below which no clear pattern in response was evident. By applying repeated-measures ANOVA across scale factors, a significant decrease in MSE was seen at 1.0 and 2.0 ng/kg by 2 hours post exposure to LPS. While not statistically significant below 1.0 ng/kg, MSE unexpectedly decreased across all groups in an orderly dose-response pattern not seen in the other outcomes. Conclusions By usingrANOVA across scale factors, MSE can detect autonomic change

  8. Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmuth, Brian; Broitman, Bernardo R; Yamane, Lauren; Gilman, Sarah E; Mach, Katharine; Mislan, K A S; Denny, Mark W

    2010-03-15

    Predicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales.

  9. Small scale variability of transport and composition of dissolved organic matter in the subsoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinemann, T.; Mikutta, R.; Kalbitz, K.; Guggenberger, G.

    2016-12-01

    Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is the most mobile fraction of carbon in the soil and connects the carbon-rich topsoil with the subsoil where translocated OM may get stabilized. The water flux in soil is highly heterogeneous, both temporarily and spatially. We, therefore, hypothesize that at high flow velocities, DOM can bypass possible mineral binding sites and microorganisms, thus leading to less degraded DOM under high flow velocities. To address this question, we investigated water and DOM fluxes in situ using segmented suction plates (4 x 4 segments on 24 x 24 cm) installed into three soil observatories at three depths (10 cm, 50 cm, and 150 cm) in a Dystric Cambisol under Beech (Fagus sylvatica) near Hannover, Germany. To follow the transport of carbon from the litter layer through the soil, an in situ 13C-labelling experiment has been conducted in January 2015. Concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and DOM composition was analyzed using high temperature combustion and photometric methods. The amount of transported DOC decreased by ca. 80 % from 10 to 50 cm depth and by 40 % from 50 to 150 cm depth. Different flow patterns existed at the centimeter scale, which were stable over time for individual suction plate segments. The specific UV280 nm absorbance of DOM decreased with increasing soil depth. This indicates a selective loss of aromatic compounds. The influence of different flow regimes on the DOM quality became apparent in the subsoil samples (>50 cm depth) showing a correlation of increasing UV280 nm absorbance with increasing water flux. The 13C-labelling experiment showed that after 10 month just 0.3 % of the DOC in 150 cm depth was derived from fresh litter. The transport of leaf litter carbon seemed to be controlled by the flow regime as the DO13C ratio and the water flux correlated positively. This can be an indication for the importance of preferential flow on carbon transport to the subsoil.

  10. Variability of scaling time series in the Arctic sea-ice drift dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chmel

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The motion of an individual ice floe in the Arctic Ocean was monitored at the Russian research station North Pole 35 established on the ice pack in 2008. The ice floe speed (V was found to be correlated with wind speed (v in main features, such as the positions of maxima and minima of V and v. However, the fine structure of the V-variation cannot be explained by the wind forcing alone. There were periods of time when the floe drift was affected by the interactions of ice floes between each other or by the periodical forcing due to either the Coriolis inertia effect or the tidal activity. These data were compared with the "waiting times" statistics that are the distributions of time intervals between subsequent, sufficiently strong changes in the kinetic energy of drifting ice floe. These distributions were measured in several time windows differing in the average wind speed and wind direction, and/or in the mechanical state of the ice pack. The distribution functions N (t>τ, where N is the number of successive events of energy change separated by the time interval t that exceeds τ, constructed in different time windows demonstrate fractal or a multifractal nature of the time series during motion in the consolidated ice pack but were truly random when the ice floe drifted in the highly fragmented sea ice. The latter result shows the existence of a relationship between the long-range mechanical interactions in the pack and long-term memory (time scaling behaviour of the sea-ice motion.

  11. Gear fault diagnosis under variable conditions with intrinsic time-scale decomposition-singular value decomposition and support vector machine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xing, Zhanqiang; Qu, Jianfeng; Chai, Yi; Tang, Qiu; Zhou, Yuming [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2017-02-15

    The gear vibration signal is nonlinear and non-stationary, gear fault diagnosis under variable conditions has always been unsatisfactory. To solve this problem, an intelligent fault diagnosis method based on Intrinsic time-scale decomposition (ITD)-Singular value decomposition (SVD) and Support vector machine (SVM) is proposed in this paper. The ITD method is adopted to decompose the vibration signal of gearbox into several Proper rotation components (PRCs). Subsequently, the singular value decomposition is proposed to obtain the singular value vectors of the proper rotation components and improve the robustness of feature extraction under variable conditions. Finally, the Support vector machine is applied to classify the fault type of gear. According to the experimental results, the performance of ITD-SVD exceeds those of the time-frequency analysis methods with EMD and WPT combined with SVD for feature extraction, and the classifier of SVM outperforms those for K-nearest neighbors (K-NN) and Back propagation (BP). Moreover, the proposed approach can accurately diagnose and identify different fault types of gear under variable conditions.

  12. Mapping the Centimeter-Scale Spatial Variability of PAHs and Microbial Populations in the Rhizosphere of Two Plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélia Bourceret

    Full Text Available Rhizoremediation uses root development and exudation to favor microbial activity. Thus it can enhance polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH biodegradation in contaminated soils. Spatial heterogeneity of rhizosphere processes, mainly linked to the root development stage and to the plant species, could explain the contrasted rhizoremediation efficiency levels reported in the literature. Aim of the present study was to test if spatial variability in the whole plant rhizosphere, explored at the centimetre-scale, would influence the abundance of microorganisms (bacteria and fungi, and the abundance and activity of PAH-degrading bacteria, leading to spatial variability in PAH concentrations. Two contrasted rhizospheres were compared after 37 days of alfalfa or ryegrass growth in independent rhizotron devices. Almost all spiked PAHs were degraded, and the density of the PAH-degrading bacterial populations increased in both rhizospheres during the incubation period. Mapping of multiparametric data through geostatistical estimation (kriging revealed that although root biomass was spatially structured, PAH distribution was not. However a greater variability of the PAH content was observed in the rhizosphere of alfalfa. Yet, in the ryegrass-planted rhizotron, the Gram-positive PAH-degraders followed a reverse depth gradient to root biomass, but were positively correlated to the soil pH and carbohydrate concentrations. The two rhizospheres structured the microbial community differently: a fungus-to-bacterium depth gradient similar to the root biomass gradient only formed in the alfalfa rhizotron.

  13. Large-Scale Processes Associated with Inter-Decadal and Inter-Annual Early Spring Rainfall Variability in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jau-Ming Chen

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Early spring (March - April rainfall in Taiwan exhibits evident and distinct inter-annual and inter-decadal variability. The inter-annual varibility has a positive correlation with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation while the inter-decadal variability features a phase change beginning in the late 1970s, coherent with the major phase change in the Pacific decadal oscillation. Rainfall variability in both timescales is regulated by large-scale processes showing consistent dynamic features. Rainfall increases are associated with positive sea surface temperature (SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific and negative SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific. An anomalous lower-level divergent center appears in the tropical central Pacific. Via a Rossby-wave-like response, an anomalous lower-level anticyclone appears to the southeast of Taiwan over the Philippine Sea-tropical western Pacific region, which is accompanied by an anomalous cyclone to the north-northeast of Taiwan. Both circulation anomalies induce anomalous southwesterly flows to enhance moisture flux from the South China Sea onto Taiwan, resulting in significant moisture convergence nearby Taiwan. With enhanced moisture supplied by anomalous southwesterly flows, significant rainfall increases occur in both inter-annual and inter-decadal timescales in early spring rainfall on Taiwan.

  14. Characterizing the spatial variability of local and background concentration signals for air pollution at the neighbourhood scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shairsingh, Kerolyn K.; Jeong, Cheol-Heon; Wang, Jonathan M.; Evans, Greg J.

    2018-06-01

    Vehicle emissions represent a major source of air pollution in urban districts, producing highly variable concentrations of some pollutants within cities. The main goal of this study was to identify a deconvolving method so as to characterize variability in local, neighbourhood and regional background concentration signals. This method was validated by examining how traffic-related and non-traffic-related sources influenced the different signals. Sampling with a mobile monitoring platform was conducted across the Greater Toronto Area over a seven-day period during summer 2015. This mobile monitoring platform was equipped with instruments for measuring a wide range of pollutants at time resolutions of 1 s (ultrafine particles, black carbon) to 20 s (nitric oxide, nitrogen oxides). The monitored neighbourhoods were selected based on their land use categories (e.g. industrial, commercial, parks and residential areas). The high time-resolution data allowed pollutant concentrations to be separated into signals representing background and local concentrations. The background signals were determined using a spline of minimums; local signals were derived by subtracting the background concentration from the total concentration. Our study showed that temporal scales of 500 s and 2400 s were associated with the neighbourhood and regional background signals respectively. The percent contribution of the pollutant concentration that was attributed to local signals was highest for nitric oxide (NO) (37-95%) and lowest for ultrafine particles (9-58%); the ultrafine particles were predominantly regional (32-87%) in origin on these days. Local concentrations showed stronger associations than total concentrations with traffic intensity in a 100 m buffer (ρ:0.21-0.44). The neighbourhood scale signal also showed stronger associations with industrial facilities than the total concentrations. Given that the signals show stronger associations with different land use suggests that

  15. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-01-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 10 18 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m 2 s -2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 10 18 . The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m 2 s -2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m 2 s -2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m 2 s -2 , while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m 2 s -2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10 -17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10 -18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage. (authors)

  16. Variability of Snow Ablation: Consequences for Runoff Generation at the Process Scale and Lessons for Large Cold Regions Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, J. W.; Carey, S. K.; Granger, R. J.; Hedstrom, N. R.; Janowicz, R.; Pietroniro, A.; Quinton, W. L.

    2002-12-01

    The supply of water to large northern catchments such as the Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers is dominated by snowmelt runoff from first order mountain catchments. In order to understand the timing, peak and duration of the snowmelt freshet at larger scale it is important to appreciate the spatial and temporal variability of snowmelt and runoff processes at the source. For this reason a comprehensive hydrology study of a Yukon River headwaters catchment, Wolf Creek Research Basin, near Whitehorse, has focussed on the spatial variability of snow ablation and snowmelt runoff generation and the consequences for the water balance in a mountain tundra zone. In northern mountain tundra, surface energetics vary with receipt of solar radiation, shrub vegetation cover and initial snow accumulation. Therefore the timing of snowmelt is controlled by aspect, in that south facing slopes become snow-free 4-5 weeks before the north facing. Runoff generation differs widely between the slopes; there is normally no spring runoff generated from the south facing slope as all meltwater evaporates or infiltrates. On the north facing slope, snowmelt provides substantial runoff to hillside macropores which rapidly route water to the stream channel. Macropore distribution is associated with organic terrain and discontinuous permafrost, which in turn result from the summer surface energetics. Therefore the influence of small-scale snow redistribution and energetics as controlled by topography must be accounted for when calculating contributing areas to larger scale catchments, and estimating the effectiveness of snowfall in generating streamflow. This concept is quite distinct from the drainage controlled contributing area that has been found useful in temperate-zone hydrology.

  17. Observing the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization with Variable-delay Polarization Modulators for the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Kathleen; CLASS Collaboration

    2018-01-01

    The search for inflationary primordial gravitational waves and the optical depth to reionization, both through their imprint on the large angular scale correlations in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), has created the need for high sensitivity measurements of polarization across large fractions of the sky at millimeter wavelengths. These measurements are subjected to instrumental and atmospheric 1/f noise, which has motivated the development of polarization modulators to facilitate the rejection of these large systematic effects.Variable-delay polarization modulators (VPMs) are used in the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) telescopes as the first element in the optical chain to rapidly modulate the incoming polarization. VPMs consist of a linearly polarizing wire grid in front of a moveable flat mirror; varying the distance between the grid and the mirror produces a changing phase shift between polarization states parallel and perpendicular to the grid which modulates Stokes U (linear polarization at 45°) and Stokes V (circular polarization). The reflective and scalable nature of the VPM enables its placement as the first optical element in a reflecting telescope. This simultaneously allows a lock-in style polarization measurement and the separation of sky polarization from any instrumental polarization farther along in the optical chain.The Q-Band CLASS VPM was the first VPM to begin observing the CMB full time in 2016. I will be presenting its design and characterization as well as demonstrating how modulating polarization significantly rejects atmospheric and instrumental long time scale noise.

  18. A hybrid approach to estimating national scale spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in the contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckerman, Bernardo S; Jerrett, Michael; Serre, Marc; Martin, Randall V; Lee, Seung-Jae; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Ross, Zev; Su, Jason; Burnett, Richard T

    2013-07-02

    Airborne fine particulate matter exhibits spatiotemporal variability at multiple scales, which presents challenges to estimating exposures for health effects assessment. Here we created a model to predict ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) across the contiguous United States to be applied to health effects modeling. We developed a hybrid approach combining a land use regression model (LUR) selected with a machine learning method, and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals. The PM2.5 data set included 104,172 monthly observations at 1464 monitoring locations with approximately 10% of locations reserved for cross-validation. LUR models were based on remote sensing estimates of PM2.5, land use and traffic indicators. Normalized cross-validated R(2) values for LUR were 0.63 and 0.11 with and without remote sensing, respectively, suggesting remote sensing is a strong predictor of ground-level concentrations. In the models including the BME interpolation of the residuals, cross-validated R(2) were 0.79 for both configurations; the model without remotely sensed data described more fine-scale variation than the model including remote sensing. Our results suggest that our modeling framework can predict ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 at multiple scales over the contiguous U.S.

  19. Fine-scale geographic variations of inflammatory bowel disease in France: correlation with socioeconomic and house equipment variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerich, Virginie; Monnet, Elisabeth; Weill, Alain; Vallier, Nathalie; Vanbockstael, Vincent; Auleley, Guy-Robert; Balaire, Corine; Dubost, Patrick; Rican, Stéphane; Allemand, Hubert; Carbonnel, Franck

    2010-05-01

    In a previous study we found a north-south gradient for Crohn's disease (CD) incidence in France. The aim of the present study was to determine if socioeconomic factors may influence the geographic distribution of CD and ulcerative colitis (UC) in France. Using the national health insurance databases, incidence rates of CD and UC were estimated for each of 341 metropolitan "job areas" in 2000-2002. Relationships between incidence rates and relevant contextual variables from the 1999 French census were tested for significance using a Poisson regression. Mapping of smoothed relative risks (sRR) for CD and UC at the scale of job areas, using a Bayesian approach and adjusting for significant contextual variables, was carried out in order to search for geographic variations. CD incidence rates were negatively related to the percentage of farmers and to the percentage of housing with bathroom and toilets and positively related to the unemployment rate and to the percentage of households below the poverty threshold. Mapping of sRR for CD showed a clear north-south gradient, which was slightly improved after including the percentage of farmers and the percentage of housing with toilets. In UC we found no significant correlation between either incidence and socioeconomic variables or incidence and house equipment variables, and there was no north-south gradient. However, there was a positive and significant correlation between CD and UC incidence. The present study shows that geographic risk factors of CD in France are northern latitude, nonrural areas, and areas with poor sanitary house equipment. Among these factors the most important is northern latitude.

  20. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in

  1. Geospatial Method for Computing Supplemental Multi-Decadal U.S. Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Classification Products, Using Landsat Data and C-CAP Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J. P.; Smoot, James; Ellis, Jean; Hilbert, Kent; Swann, Roberta

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and implementation of a geospatial data processing method and multi-decadal Landsat time series for computing general coastal U.S. land-use and land-cover (LULC) classifications and change products consisting of seven classes (water, barren, upland herbaceous, non-woody wetland, woody upland, woody wetland, and urban). Use of this approach extends the observational period of the NOAA-generated Coastal Change and Analysis Program (C-CAP) products by almost two decades, assuming the availability of one cloud free Landsat scene from any season for each targeted year. The Mobile Bay region in Alabama was used as a study area to develop, demonstrate, and validate the method that was applied to derive LULC products for nine dates at approximate five year intervals across a 34-year time span, using single dates of data for each classification in which forests were either leaf-on, leaf-off, or mixed senescent conditions. Classifications were computed and refined using decision rules in conjunction with unsupervised classification of Landsat data and C-CAP value-added products. Each classification's overall accuracy was assessed by comparing stratified random locations to available reference data, including higher spatial resolution satellite and aerial imagery, field survey data, and raw Landsat RGBs. Overall classification accuracies ranged from 83 to 91% with overall Kappa statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.89. The accuracies are comparable to those from similar, generalized LULC products derived from C-CAP data. The Landsat MSS-based LULC product accuracies are similar to those from Landsat TM or ETM+ data. Accurate classifications were computed for all nine dates, yielding effective results regardless of season. This classification method yielded products that were used to compute LULC change products via additive GIS overlay techniques.

  2. Meteorological and small scale internal ecosystem variability characterize the uncertainty of ecosystem level responses to elevated CO2. Insights from the Duke Forest FACE experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, A.; Katul, G. G.; Fatichi, S.; Palmroth, S.; Way, D.

    2017-12-01

    One of the open questions in climate change research is the pathway by which elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration impacts the biogeochemical and hydrological cycles at the ecosystem scale. This impact leads to significant changes in long-term carbon stocks and the potential of ecosystems to sequester CO2, partially mitigating anthropogenic emissions. While the significance of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on instantaneous leaf-level processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration is rarely disputed, its integrated effect at the ecosystem level and at long-time scales remains a subject of debate. This debate has taken on some urgency as illustrated by differences arising between ecosystem modelling studies, and data-model comparisons using Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) sites around the world. Inherent leaf-to-leaf variability in gas exchange rates can generate such inconsistencies. This inherent variability arises from the combined effect of meteorological "temporal" variability and the "spatial" variability of the biochemical parameters regulating vegetation carbon uptake. This combined variability leads to a non-straightforward scaling of ecosystem fluxes from the leaf to ecosystems. To illustrate this scaling behaviour, we used 10 years of leaf gas exchange measurements collected at the Duke Forest FACE experiment. The internal variability of the ecosystem parameters are first quantified and then combined with three different leaf-scale stomatal conductance models and an ecosystem model. The main results are: (a) Variability of the leaf level fluxes is dependent on both the meteorological drivers and differences in leaf age, position within the canopy, nitrogen and CO2 fertilization, which can be accommodated in model parameters; (b) Meteorological variability plays the dominant role at short temporal scales while parameter variability is significant at longer temporal scales. (c) Leaf level results do not necessarily translate to similar ecosystem

  3. Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

    2003-04-01

    Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T

  4. Saccharification Performances of Miscanthus at the Pilot and Miniaturized Assay Scales: Genotype and Year Variabilities According to the Biomass Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nassim Belmokhtar

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available HIGHLIGHTSBiomass production and cell wall composition are differentially impacted by harvesting year and genotypes, influencing then cellulose conversion in miniaturized assay.Using a high-throughput miniaturized and semi-automated method for performing the pretreatment and saccharification steps at laboratory scale allows for the assessment of these factors on the biomass potential for producing bioethanol before moving to the industrial scale.The large genetic diversity of the perennial grass miscanthus makes it suitable for producing cellulosic ethanol in biorefineries. The saccharification potential and year variability of five genotypes belonging to Miscanthus × giganteus and Miscanthus sinensis were explored using a miniaturized and semi-automated method, allowing the application of a hot water treatment followed by an enzymatic hydrolysis. The studied genotypes highlighted distinct cellulose conversion yields due to their distinct cell wall compositions. An inter-year comparison revealed significant variations in the biomass productivity and cell wall compositions. Compared to the recalcitrant genotypes, more digestible genotypes contained higher amounts of hemicellulosic carbohydrates and lower amounts of cellulose and lignin. In contrast to hemicellulosic carbohydrates, the relationships analysis between the biomass traits and cellulose conversion clearly showed the same negative effect of cellulose and lignin on cellulose digestion. The miniaturized and semi-automated method we developed was usable at the laboratory scale and was reliable for mimicking the saccharification at the pilot scale using a steam explosion pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Therefore, this miniaturized method will allow the reliable screening of many genotypes for saccharification potential. These findings provide valuable information and tools for breeders to create genotypes combining high yield, suitable biomass composition, and high saccharification

  5. Development of a scale to measure adherence to self-monitoring of blood glucose with latent variable measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, J A; Schnoll, R A; Gipson, M T

    1998-07-01

    Adherence to self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is problematic for many people with diabetes. Self-reports of adherence have been found to be unreliable, and existing paper-and-pencil measures have limitations. This study developed a brief measure of SMBG adherence with good psychometric properties and a useful factor structure that can be used in research and in practice. A total of 216 adults with diabetes responded to 30 items rated on a 9-point Likert scale that asked about blood monitoring habits. In part I of the study, items were evaluated and retained based on their psychometric properties. The sample was divided into exploratory and confirmatory halves. Using the exploratory half, items with acceptable psychometric properties were subjected to a principal components analysis. In part II of the study, structural equation modeling was used to confirm the component solution with the entire sample. Structural modeling was also used to test the relationship between these components. It was hypothesized that the scale would produce four correlated factors. Principal components analysis suggested a two-component solution, and confirmatory factor analysis confirmed this solution. The first factor measures the degree to which patients rely on others to help them test and thus was named "social influence." The second component measures the degree to which patients use physical symptoms of blood glucose levels to help them test and thus was named "physical influence." Results of the structural model show that the components are correlated and make up the higher-order latent variable adherence. The resulting 15-item scale provides a short, reliable way to assess patient adherence to SMBG. Despite the existence of several aspects of adherence, this study indicates that the construct consists of only two components. This scale is an improvement on previous measures of adherence because of its good psychometric properties, its interpretable factor structure, and its

  6. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2016-01-01

    India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

  7. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  8. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  9. Consistency and Variability in Talk about "Diversity": An Empirical Analysis of Discursive Scope in Swiss Large Scale Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Ostendorp

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally discussions of "diversity" in organizations either refer to an ideal "management" of a diverse workforce or to specific concerns of minorities. The term diversity, however, entails a growing number of translations. Highlighting this diversity of diversity, the concept cannot be merely conceived of as either social-normative or economic-functional. Therefore, the present study empirically scrutinizes the current scope of diversity-talk in Swiss large scale enterprises from a discursive psychological perspective. First, it provides five so-called interpretative repertoires which focus on: image, market, minorities, themes, and difference. Second, it discusses why and how persons oscillate between consistency and variability whenever they draw upon these different repertoires. Finally, it points out possibilities to combine them. This empirical approach to diversity in organizations offers new aspects to the current debate on diversity and introduces crucial concepts of a discursive psychological analysis. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs090218

  10. Finding stability regions for preserving efficiency classification of variable returns to scale technology in data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, P.; Borzouei, M.

    2016-12-01

    This paper addresses issue of sensitivity of efficiency classification of variable returns to scale (VRS) technology for enhancing the credibility of data envelopment analysis (DEA) results in practical applications when an additional decision making unit (DMU) needs to be added to the set being considered. It also develops a structured approach to assisting practitioners in making an appropriate selection of variation range for inputs and outputs of additional DMU so that this DMU be efficient and the efficiency classification of VRS technology remains unchanged. This stability region is simply specified by the concept of defining hyperplanes of production possibility set of VRS technology and the corresponding halfspaces. Furthermore, this study determines a stability region for the additional DMU within which, in addition to efficiency classification, the efficiency score of a specific inefficient DMU is preserved and also using a simulation method, a region in which some specific efficient DMUs become inefficient is provided.

  11. Energy modeling and analysis for optimal grid integration of large-scale variable renewables using hydrogen storage in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Otsuki, Takashi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2015-01-01

    Although the extensive introduction of VRs (variable renewables) will play an essential role to resolve energy and environmental issues in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear accident, its large-scale integration would pose a technical challenge in the grid management; as one of technical countermeasures, hydrogen storage receives much attention, as well as rechargeable battery, for controlling the intermittency of VR power output. For properly planning renewable energy policies, energy system modeling is important to quantify and qualitatively understand its potential benefits and impacts. This paper analyzes the optimal grid integration of large-scale VRs using hydrogen storage in Japan by developing a high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model. Simulation results suggest that the installation of hydrogen storage is promoted by both its cost reduction and CO 2 regulation policy. In addition, hydrogen storage turns out to be suitable for storing VR energy in a long period of time. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis of rechargeable battery cost, hydrogen storage is economically competitive with rechargeable battery; the cost of both technologies should be more elaborately recognized for formulating effective energy policies to integrate massive VRs into the country's power system in an economical manner. - Highlights: • Authors analyze hydrogen storage coupled with VRs (variable renewables). • Simulation analysis is done by developing an optimal power generation mix model. • Hydrogen storage installation is promoted by its cost decline and CO 2 regulation. • Hydrogen storage is suitable for storing VR energy in a long period of time. • Hydrogen storage is economically competitive with rechargeable battery

  12. Behavioral Pediatrics Feeding Assessment Scale in Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder: Psychometrics and Associations With Child and Parent Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Stephanie L; Smith, Isabel M; Duku, Eric; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Szatmari, Peter; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Waddell, Charlotte; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Roberts, Wendy; Mirenda, Pat; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Georgiades, Stelios

    2015-07-01

    The factor structure and validity of the Behavioral Pediatrics Feeding Assessment Scale (BPFAS; Crist & Napier-Phillips, 2001) were examined in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the original BPFAS five-factor model, the fit of each latent variable, and a rival one-factor model. None of the models was adequate, thus a categorical exploratory factor analysis (CEFA) was conducted. Correlations were used to examine relations between the BPFAS and concurrent variables of interest. The CEFA identified an acceptable three-factor model. Correlational analyses indicated that feeding problems were positively related to parent-reported autism symptoms, behavior problems, sleep problems, and parenting stress, but largely unrelated to performance-based indices of autism symptom severity, language, and cognitive abilities, as well as child age. These results provide evidence supporting the use of the identified BPFAS three-factor model for samples of young children with ASD. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

    2011-01-01

    Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

  14. Characterization factors for terrestrial acidification at the global scale: a systematic analysis of spatial variability and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Azevedo, Ligia B; Margni, Manuele; van Zelm, Rosalie; Deschênes, Louise; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2014-12-01

    Characterization factors (CFs) are used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the potential impact per unit of emission. CFs are obtained from a characterization model which assess the environmental mechanisms along the cause-effect chain linking an emission to its potential damage on a given area of protection, such as loss in ecosystem quality. Up to now, CFs for acidifying emissions did not cover the global scale and were only representative of their characterization model geographical scope. Consequently, current LCA practices implicitly assume that all emissions from a global supply chain occur within the continent referring to the characterization method geographical scope. This paper provides worldwide 2°×2.5° spatially-explicit CFs, representing the change in relative loss of terrestrial vascular plant species due to an emission change of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We found that spatial variability in the CFs is much larger compared to statistical uncertainty (six orders of magnitude vs. two orders of magnitude). Spatial variability is mainly caused by the atmospheric fate factor and soil sensitivity factor, while the ecological effect factor is the dominant contributor to the statistical uncertainty. The CFs provided in our study allow the worldwide spatially explicit evaluation of life cycle impacts related to acidifying emissions. This opens the door to evaluate regional life cycle emissions of different products in a global economy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. The impact of land use change and hydroclimatic variability on landscape connectivity dynamics across surface water networks at subcontinental scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulbure, M. G.; Bishop-Taylor, R.; Broich, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land use (LU) change and hydroclimatic variability affect spatiotemporal landscape connectivity dynamics, important for species movement and dispersal. Despite the fact that LU change can strongly influence dispersal potential over time, prior research has only focused on the impacts of dynamic changes in the distribution of potential habitats. We used 8 time-steps of historical LU together with a Landsat-derived time-series of surface water habitat dynamics (1986-2011) over the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a region with extreme hydroclimatic variability, impacted by LU changes. To assess how changing LU and hydroclimatic variability affect landscape connectivity across time, we compared 4 scenarios, namely one where both climate and LU are dynamic over time, one where climate is kept steady (i.e. a median surface water extent layer), and two scenarios where LU is kept steady (i.e. resistance values associated with the most recent or the first LU layer). We used circuit theory to assign landscape features with `resistance' costs and graph theory network analysis, with surface water habitats as `nodes' connected by dispersal paths or `edges' Findings comparing a dry and an average season show high differences in number of nodes (14581 vs 21544) and resistance distances. The combined effect of LU change and landscape wetness was lower than expected, likely a function of the large, MDB-wide, aggregation scale. Spatially explicit analyses are expected to identify areas where the synergistic effect of LU change and landscape wetness greatly reduce or increase landscape connectivity, as well as areas where the two effects cancel each other out.

  16. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  17. The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pourasghar, Farnaz; Jahanbakhsh, Saeed; Sari Sarraf, Behrooz [The University of Tabriz, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tozuka, Tomoki [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Ghaemi, Hooshang [Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. (orig.)

  18. Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

  19. 1.3 mm WAVELENGTH VLBI OF SAGITTARIUS A*: DETECTION OF TIME-VARIABLE EMISSION ON EVENT HORIZON SCALES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Beaudoin, Christopher; Bolin, David E.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Blundell, Ray; Gurwell, Mark A.; Moran, James M.; Primiani, Rurik; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Plambeck, Richard; Chamberlin, Richard; Freund, Robert; Friberg, Per; Honma, Mareki; Oyama, Tomoaki; Inoue, Makoto; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Lamb, James; Marrone, Daniel P.

    2011-01-01

    Sagittarius A*, the ∼4 x 10 6 M sun black hole candidate at the Galactic center, can be studied on Schwarzschild radius scales with (sub)millimeter wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). We report on 1.3 mm wavelength observations of Sgr A* using a VLBI array consisting of the JCMT on Mauna Kea, the Arizona Radio Observatory's Submillimeter Telescope on Mt. Graham in Arizona, and two telescopes of the CARMA array at Cedar Flat in California. Both Sgr A* and the quasar calibrator 1924-292 were observed over three consecutive nights, and both sources were clearly detected on all baselines. For the first time, we are able to extract 1.3 mm VLBI interferometer phase information on Sgr A* through measurement of closure phase on the triangle of baselines. On the third night of observing, the correlated flux density of Sgr A* on all VLBI baselines increased relative to the first two nights, providing strong evidence for time-variable change on scales of a few Schwarzschild radii. These results suggest that future VLBI observations with greater sensitivity and additional baselines will play a valuable role in determining the structure of emission near the event horizon of Sgr A*.

  20. Examining the Variability of Sleep Patterns during Treatment for Chronic Insomnia: Application of a Location-Scale Mixed Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Jason C; Hedeker, Donald; Wyatt, James K; Manber, Rachel

    2016-06-15

    The purpose of this study was to introduce a novel statistical technique called the location-scale mixed model that can be used to analyze the mean level and intra-individual variability (IIV) using longitudinal sleep data. We applied the location-scale mixed model to examine changes from baseline in sleep efficiency on data collected from 54 participants with chronic insomnia who were randomized to an 8-week Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR; n = 19), an 8-week Mindfulness-Based Therapy for Insomnia (MBTI; n = 19), or an 8-week self-monitoring control (SM; n = 16). Sleep efficiency was derived from daily sleep diaries collected at baseline (days 1-7), early treatment (days 8-21), late treatment (days 22-63), and post week (days 64-70). The behavioral components (sleep restriction, stimulus control) were delivered during late treatment in MBTI. For MBSR and MBTI, the pre-to-post change in mean levels of sleep efficiency were significantly larger than the change in mean levels for the SM control, but the change in IIV was not significantly different. During early and late treatment, MBSR showed a larger increase in mean levels of sleep efficiency and a larger decrease in IIV relative to the SM control. At late treatment, MBTI had a larger increase in the mean level of sleep efficiency compared to SM, but the IIV was not significantly different. The location-scale mixed model provides a two-dimensional analysis on the mean and IIV using longitudinal sleep diary data with the potential to reveal insights into treatment mechanisms and outcomes. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

  1. Modeling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichstein, Markus; Rey, Ana; Freibauer, Annette; Tenhunen, John; Valentini, Riccardo; Banza, Joao; Casals, Pere; Cheng, Yufu; Grünzweig, Jose M.; Irvine, James; Joffre, Richard; Law, Beverly E.; Loustau, Denis; Miglietta, Franco; Oechel, Walter; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Pereira, Joao S.; Peressotti, Alessandro; Ponti, Francesca; Qi, Ye; Rambal, Serge; Rayment, Mark; Romanya, Joan; Rossi, Federica; Tedeschi, Vanessa; Tirone, Giampiero; Xu, Ming; Yakir, Dan

    2003-12-01

    explain some of the month-to-month variability of soil respiration, it failed to capture the intersite variability, regardless of whether the original or a new optimized model parameterization was used. In both cases, the residuals were strongly related to maximum site leaf area index. Thus, for a monthly timescale, we developed a simple T&P&LAI model that includes leaf area index as an additional predictor of soil respiration. This extended but still simple model performed nearly as well as the more detailed time step model and explained 50% of the overall and 65% of the site-to-site variability. Consequently, better estimates of globally distributed soil respiration should be obtained with the new model driven by satellite estimates of leaf area index. Before application at the continental or global scale, this approach should be further tested in boreal, cold-temperate, and tropical biomes as well as for non-woody vegetation.

  2. Mid-Holocene onset of high-amplitude decadal to centennial scale variability along the Peru Chile Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chazen, C. R.; Altabet, M.; Herbert, T. D.

    2008-12-01

    Understanding the natural climate variations in the eastern tropical Pacific is crucial for predicting the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and for anticipating the ways in which increases in atmospheric CO2 will affect climate. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (11-12 yr) climate record across the mid-Holocene transition (10ka-1.4ka) from the Peru-Chile Margin near the epicenter of the modern ENSO system. Although the high productivity of the Peru margin should promote high deposition rates, and the anaerobic bottom water conditions should inhibit sediment mixing by benthic organisms, nearly all sediment cores recovered from this region suffer from major gaps in Holocene sedimentation. Our data comes from a ~5 meter piston core collected from the mid-Peruvian shelf (15° 15"S, 75° 58"W, ~250mwd) in the heart of the oxygen minimum/denitrification zone that provides the first uninterrupted archive of conditions along the Peru-Chile margin. A suite of geochemical proxies allow us to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST- Uk'37), phytoplankton productivity (C37total and %BSi), and thermocline ventilation (δ15N), variables that are tightly correlated to ENSO events today. Despite the observation that the mean late Holocene state of all three variables did not change over the last 10,000 years, our data reveal a dramatic increase in climate variability after the mid Holocene (~5ka); represented by prolonged periods (50-200yrs) of climate extremes, which are absent in the early Holocene. To further investigate these climate extremes we examine benthic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotopes in combination with our other proxy records in selected late Holocene sections. The roughly centennial-scale oscillations do not show typical El Niño-La Niña correlations between proxies. We therefore posit that a significant fraction of super-ENSO variance during the course of the Holocene may originate outside the tropics

  3. Temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at seasonal and interannual time scales in a temperate beech forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Campioli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The allocation of carbon (C taken up by the tree canopy for respiration and production of tree organs with different construction and maintenance costs, life span and decomposition rate, crucially affects the residence time of C in forests and their C cycling rate. The carbon-use efficiency, or ratio between net primary production (NPP and gross primary production (GPP, represents a convenient way to analyse the C allocation at the stand level. In this study, we extend the current knowledge on the NPP-GPP ratio in forests by assessing the temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at interannual (for 8 years and seasonal (for 1 year scales for a young temperate beech stand, reporting dynamics for both leaves and woody organs, in particular stems. NPP was determined with biometric methods/litter traps, whereas the GPP was estimated via the eddy covariance micrometeorological technique.

    The interannual variability of the proportion of C allocated to leaf NPP, wood NPP and leaf plus wood NPP (on average 11% yr−1, 29% yr−1 and 39% yr−1, respectively was significant among years with up to 12% yr−1 variation in NPP-GPP ratio. Studies focusing on the comparison of NPP-GPP ratio among forests and models using fixed allocation schemes should take into account the possibility of such relevant interannual variability. Multiple linear regressions indicated that the NPP-GPP ratio of leaves and wood significantly correlated with environmental conditions. Previous year drought and air temperature explained about half of the NPP-GPP variability of leaves and wood, respectively, whereas the NPP-GPP ratio was not decreased by severe drought, with large NPP-GPP ratio on 2003 due mainly to low GPP. During the period between early May and mid June, the majority of GPP was allocated to leaf and stem NPP, whereas these sinks were of little importance later on. Improved estimation of seasonal GPP and of the

  4. Interannual Variability of the Meridional Width of the Baiu Rainband in June and the Associated Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, K.; Tomita, T.

    2016-12-01

    Baiu front, which is defined as a boundary between tropical and polar air masses in the East Asia-western North Pacific sector in boreal early summer, slowly migrates northward with the daily meridional swings. Thus, the interannual variability of meridional width of the baiu rainband reflects the slow northward migration and the daily meridional swings of the baiu front. This study focuses on the meridional width of baiu rainband only in June when the baiu front extends on Japan, and investigates how the width is related to the rainfall of Japan with discussions of associated anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulations. The meridional width of baiu rainband is defined based on the monthly-mean precipitation rate of June, whose threshold is 5mm day-1 that is averaged in 130°-150°E. There is a significant positive correlation between the variations of southern and northern edges of the baiu rainband in June. However, the interannual variance of the southern edge is almost twice larger than that of the northern one. That is, the interannual variability of the meridional width is chiefly caused by the variations of southern edge, and the contribution of northern ones is small. When the meridonal width is narrow (wide), an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears to the south of Japan, and the precipitation rate increases (decreases) in the western part of Japan while decreases (increases) in the counterpart. In other words, a local dipole with a node at 140°E appears around Japan in the baiu rainfall anomalies. The anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation to the south of Japan, which controls the interannual variability of meridional width of the baiu rainband, is induced by the strength of Indian summer monsoon. When the convective activity of Indian summer monsoon is strong (week), the Tibetan high in the upper troposphere extends more (less) eastward. The induced stronger (weaker) descent leads stronger (weaker) Bonin high in the western

  5. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  6. Small scale variability of soil parameters in different land uses on the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Christina; Kühnel, Anna; Hepp, Johannes; Huwe, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    indicator of vegetation patterns. First results support our general hypotheses. In the coffee plantation anisotropic variation of soil parameters clearly showed the anthropogenic influence like compaction due to agricultural machinery. However, soil bulk density and penetration resistance in the homegarden were also quite variable at the sites. The larger variability of throughfall in the homegarden is reflected in the patterns of soil moisture. Regarding the larger scale, where we compared different homegardens and coffee plantations along the southern slope of the mountain, soil parameters of the coffee plots were less diverse than those of the homegardens.

  7. The impact of manufacturing variables on in vitro release of clobetasol 17-propionate from pilot scale cream formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauzee, Ayeshah Fateemah Beebee; Khamanga, Sandile Maswazi; Walker, Roderick Bryan

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effect of different homogenization speeds and times, anchor speeds and cooling times on the viscosity and cumulative % clobetasol 17-propionate released per unit area at 72 h from pilot scale cream formulations. A 2(4) full factorial central composite design for four independent variables were investigated. Thirty pilot scale batches of cream formulations were manufactured using a Wintech® cream/ointment plant. The viscosity and in vitro release of CP were monitored and compared to an innovator product that is commercially available on the South African market, namely, Dermovate® cream. Contour and three-dimensional response surface plots were produced and the viscosity and cumulative % CP released per unit area at 72 h were found to be primarily dependent on the homogenization and anchor speeds. An increase in the homogenization and anchor speeds appeared to exhibit a synergistic effect on the resultant viscosity of the cream whereas an antagonistic effect was observed for the in vitro release of CP from the experimental cream formulations. The in vitro release profiles were best fitted to a Higuchi model and diffusion proved to be the dominant mechanism of drug release that was confirmed by use of the Korsmeyer-Peppas model. The research was further validated and confirmed by the high prognostic ability of response surface methodology (RSM) with a resultant mean percentage error of (±SD) 0.17 ± 0.093 suggesting that RSM may be an efficient tool for the development and optimization of topical formulations.

  8. How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

  9. Variability of cold season surface air temperature over northeastern China and its linkage with large-scale atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Yuanhuang; Zhang, Jingyong; Wang, Lin

    2018-05-01

    Cold temperature anomalies and extremes have profound effects on the society, the economy, and the environment of northeastern China (NEC). In this study, we define the cold season as the months from October to April, and investigate the variability of cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over NEC and its relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns for the period 1981-2014. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first EOF mode of the CSAT over NEC is characterized by a homogeneous structure that describes 92.2% of the total variance. The regionally averaged CSAT over NEC is closely linked with the Arctic Oscillation ( r = 0.62, 99% confidence level) and also has a statistically significant relation with the Polar/Eurasian pattern in the cold season. The positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar/Eurasian pattern tend to result in a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEC and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, which subsequently increase the CSAT over NEC by enhancing the downward solar radiation, strengthening the subsidence warming and warm air advection. Conversely, the negative phases of these two climate indices result in opposite regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and decrease the CSAT over NEC.

  10. Assessment of Heart Rate Variability during an Endurance Mountain Trail Race by Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Vallverdú

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to analyze heart rate variability (HRV response to high-intensity exercise during a 35-km mountain trail race and to ascertain whether fitness level could influence autonomic nervous system (ANS modulation. Time-domain, frequency-domain, and multi-scale entropy (MSE indexes were calculated for eleven mountain-trail runners who completed the race. Many changes were observed, mostly related to exercise load and fatigue. These changes were characterized by increased mean values and standard deviations of the normal-to-normal intervals associated with sympathetic activity, and by decreased differences between successive intervals related to parasympathetic activity. Normalized low frequency (LF power suggested that ANS modulation varied greatly during the race and between individuals. Normalized high frequency (HF power, associated with parasympathetic activity, varied considerably over the race, and tended to decrease at the final stages, whereas changes in the LF/HF ratio corresponded to intervals with varying exercise load. MSE indexes, related to system complexity, indicated the existence of many interactions between the heart and its neurological control mechanism. The time-domain, frequency-domain, and MSE indexes were also able to discriminate faster from slower runners, mainly in the more difficult and in the final stages of the race. These findings suggest the use of HRV analysis to study cardiac function mechanisms in endurance sports.

  11. Can we do better than the grid survey: Optimal synoptic surveys in presence of variable uncertainty and decorrelation scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Sergey; Garau, Bartolame; Bellingham, James

    2014-08-01

    Regular grid ("lawnmower") survey is a classical strategy for synoptic sampling of the ocean. Is it possible to achieve a more effective use of available resources if one takes into account a priori knowledge about variability in magnitudes of uncertainty and decorrelation scales? In this article, we develop and compare the performance of several path-planning algorithms: optimized "lawnmower," a graph-search algorithm (A*), and a fully nonlinear genetic algorithm. We use the machinery of the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) to quantify the ability of a vehicle fleet to synoptically map distribution of phytoplankton off the central California coast. We used satellite and in situ data to specify covariance information required by the BLUE estimator. Computational experiments showed that two types of sampling strategies are possible: a suboptimal space-filling design (produced by the "lawnmower" and the A* algorithms) and an optimal uncertainty-aware design (produced by the genetic algorithm). Unlike the space-filling designs that attempted to cover the entire survey area, the optimal design focused on revisiting areas of high uncertainty. Results of the multivehicle experiments showed that fleet performance predictors, such as cumulative speed or the weight of the fleet, predicted the performance of a homogeneous fleet well; however, these were poor predictors for comparing the performance of different platforms.

  12. Rainfall variability, climate change and regionalization in the African monsoon region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, Bernard; Roucou, Pascal; Vigaud, Nicolas; Camara, Moctar; Konare, Abdourahamane; Sanda, Seidou Ibrah; Diedhiou, Arona; Janicot, Serge

    2012-01-01

    This summary recalls some results at the end of the AMMA international experiment (2003-2010) in terms of variability of the African monsoon at the intra-seasonal to multi-decadal scales and of climate prospective. The results confirmed the weight of surface temperatures and marine tele-connections for inter-annual and decadal fluctuations and stressed the importance of atmospheric variability. They also described the dominant modes of intra-seasonal variability as their interactions with the surface. Several hypotheses involving memory effects related to soil water and vegetation, particularly in boreal spring and autumn have also been made. Prospective analysis from model output suggests rainfall surplus around 2050 over the Eastern-central Sahel and relative deficit to the West. Phase 2 of AMMA (2010-2020) will focus more on aspects that have a high social impact in direct collaboration with meteorological services predictability, prediction scores, operational indicators, evaluation of the part of anthropogenic forcing in the current and future variations. (authors)

  13. Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

    2015-09-01

    Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

  14. Multi-scale approach to the environmental factors effects on spatio-temporal variability of Chironomus salinarius (Diptera: Chironomidae) in a French coastal lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartier, V.; Claret, C.; Garnier, R.; Fayolle, S.; Franquet, E.

    2010-03-01

    The complexity of the relationships between environmental factors and organisms can be revealed by sampling designs which consider the contribution to variability of different temporal and spatial scales, compared to total variability. From a management perspective, a multi-scale approach can lead to time-saving. Identifying environmental patterns that help maintain patchy distribution is fundamental in studying coastal lagoons, transition zones between continental and marine waters characterised by great environmental variability on spatial and temporal scales. They often present organic enrichment inducing decreased species richness and increased densities of opportunist species like C hironomus salinarius, a common species that tends to swarm and thus constitutes a nuisance for human populations. This species is dominant in the Bolmon lagoon, a French Mediterranean coastal lagoon under eutrophication. Our objective was to quantify variability due to both spatial and temporal scales and identify the contribution of different environmental factors to this variability. The population of C. salinarius was sampled from June 2007 to June 2008 every two months at 12 sites located in two areas of the Bolmon lagoon, at two different depths, with three sites per area-depth combination. Environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen both in sediment and under water surface, sediment organic matter content and grain size) and microbial activities (i.e. hydrolase activities) were also considered as explanatory factors of chironomid densities and distribution. ANOVA analysis reveals significant spatial differences regarding the distribution of chironomid larvae for the area and the depth scales and their interaction. The spatial effect is also revealed for dissolved oxygen (water), salinity and fine particles (area scale), and for water column depth. All factors but water column depth show a temporal effect. Spearman's correlations highlight the seasonal effect

  15. Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

    2015-12-01

    Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

  16. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jablonowski, Christiane [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-12-14

    The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

  17. Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Drever

    Full Text Available Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm western larch (Larix occidentalis trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

  18. Inter-Annual Variability of Area-Scaled Gaseous Carbon Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Liaohe Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Siyuan; Krauss, Ken W; Brix, Hans; Wei, Mengjie; Olsson, Linda; Yu, Xueyang; Ma, Xueying; Wang, Jin; Yuan, Hongming; Zhao, Guangming; Ding, Xigui; Moss, Rebecca F

    2016-01-01

    Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling.

  19. Using Field Data and GIS-Derived Variables to Model Occurrence of Williamson's Sapsucker Nesting Habitat at Multiple Spatial Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drever, Mark C; Gyug, Les W; Nielsen, Jennifer; Stuart-Smith, A Kari; Ohanjanian, I Penny; Martin, Kathy

    2015-01-01

    Williamson's sapsucker (Sphyrapicus thyroideus) is a migratory woodpecker that breeds in mixed coniferous forests in western North America. In Canada, the range of this woodpecker is restricted to three small populations in southern British Columbia, precipitating a national listing as 'Endangered' in 2005, and the need to characterize critical habitat for its survival and recovery. We compared habitat attributes between Williamson's sapsucker nest territories and random points without nests or detections of this sapsucker as part of a resource selection analysis to identify the habitat features that best explain the probability of nest occurrence in two separate geographic regions in British Columbia. We compared the relative explanatory power of generalized linear models based on field-derived and Geographic Information System (GIS) data within both a 225 m and 800 m radius of a nest or random point. The model based on field-derived variables explained the most variation in nest occurrence in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, whereas nest occurrence was best explained by GIS information at the 800 m scale in the Western Region. Probability of nest occurrence was strongly tied to densities of potential nest trees, which included open forests with very large (diameter at breast height, DBH, ≥57.5 cm) western larch (Larix occidentalis) trees in the Okanagan-East Kootenay Region, and very large ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and large (DBH 17.5-57.5 cm) trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) trees in the Western Region. Our results have the potential to guide identification and protection of critical habitat as required by the Species at Risk Act in Canada, and to better manage Williamson's sapsucker habitat overall in North America. In particular, management should focus on the maintenance and recruitment of very large western larch and ponderosa pine trees.

  20. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) at variable resolutions for enhanced watershed scale Soil Sampling and Digital Soil Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamalainen, Sampsa; Geng, Xiaoyuan; He, Juanxia

    2017-04-01

    Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) at variable resolutions for enhanced watershed scale Soil Sampling and Digital Soil Mapping. Sampsa Hamalainen, Xiaoyuan Geng, and Juanxia, He. AAFC - Agriculture and Agr-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) approach to assist with Digital Soil Mapping has been developed for some time now, however the purpose of this work was to complement LHS with use of multiple spatial resolutions of covariate datasets and variability in the range of sampling points produced. This allowed for specific sets of LHS points to be produced to fulfil the needs of various partners from multiple projects working in the Ontario and Prince Edward Island provinces of Canada. Secondary soil and environmental attributes are critical inputs that are required in the development of sampling points by LHS. These include a required Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and subsequent covariate datasets produced as a result of a Digital Terrain Analysis performed on the DEM. These additional covariates often include but are not limited to Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Length-Slope (LS) Factor, and Slope which are continuous data. The range of specific points created in LHS included 50 - 200 depending on the size of the watershed and more importantly the number of soil types found within. The spatial resolution of covariates included within the work ranged from 5 - 30 m. The iterations within the LHS sampling were run at an optimal level so the LHS model provided a good spatial representation of the environmental attributes within the watershed. Also, additional covariates were included in the Latin Hypercube Sampling approach which is categorical in nature such as external Surficial Geology data. Some initial results of the work include using a 1000 iteration variable within the LHS model. 1000 iterations was consistently a reasonable value used to produce sampling points that provided a good spatial representation of the environmental

  1. Research on climate change and variability at the Ab dus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Molteni, F.

    2002-01-01

    The Physics of Weather and Climate Section at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, established in 1998, is currently performing research on different aspects of climate variability, dealing with both natural and anthropogenic aspects of climate changes. In addition to performing diagnostic work on multi-decadal observational datasets and climate simulations carried out in major research centres, the PWC section has been developing its own climate modeling capability, which is focused on three main areas: a) modeling of regional climate change; b) seasonal forecasting at global and regional scale; c) development of simplified models of the general circulation. On topic a), research on different aspects of anthropogenic climate change is being carried out using the Regional Climate (RegCM) developed by Giorgi and collaborators at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research. Time-slice experiments with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM, comparing current climate conditions with future climate scenarios in selected decades, are also planned for the near future. On topic b), a strategy based on ensembles of high-resolution simulations with atmospheric GCM's, using sea surface temperature anomalies predicted by lower-resolution coupled models from other institutions, is currently under experimentation. A one-way nesting of RegCM into the GCM simulations will also be tested. On item c), a 5-layer atmospheric GCM with simplified physical parameterizations has been developed. This model has a very small computational cost compared with state-of-the-art GCMs, and is suitable for studies of natural climate variability on inter-decadal and intercentennial time scales. It is planned to couple this model to simplified ocean models of different complexity, from a simple, static mixed layer model, to simplified models of the tropical Pacific circulation suited to the simulation of the El Nino phenomenon. A joint project with the IAEA-MEL Laboratory in

  2. Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

    2017-12-01

    There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative

  3. How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

    2013-02-01

    SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

  4. Turbulent viscosity and scale laws in turbulent jets with variable density; Viscosite turbulente et lois d`echelles dans les jets turbulents a masse volumique variable

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietri, L.; Amielh, M.; Anselmet, F.; Fulachier, L. [Institut de Recherche sur les Phinomenes Hors Equilibre Equipe Turbulence, 13 - Marseille (France)

    1997-12-31

    Turbulent flows with strong density variations, like helium jets in the ambient air, have specific properties linked with the difference of gas densities. This paper presents some experimental results of turbulence properties inside such flows: the Reynolds tensions and the associated turbulent viscosity, and some characteristics linked with the statistical properties of the different turbulence scales. These last results allows to show the complexity of such flows characterized by the influence of external parameters (Reynolds number, initial density ratio, initial momentum flux) that govern the evolution of these parameters inside the jet from the nozzle up to regions where similarity properties are reached. (J.S.) 12 refs.

  5. Using scaling factors for evaluating spatial and temporal variability of soil hydraulic properties within one elevation transect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikodem, Antonín; Kodešová, Radka; Jakšík, Ondřej; Fér, Miroslav; Klement, Aleš

    2016-04-01

    This study was carried out in Southern Moravia, in the Czech Republic. The original soil unit in the wider area is a Haplic Chernozem developed on loess. The intensive agricultural exploitation in combination with terrain morphology has resulted in a highly diversified soil spatial pattern. Nowadays the original soil unit is preserved only on top of relatively flat parts, and is gradually transformed by water erosion up to Regosols on the steepest slopes, while colluvial soils are formed in terrain depressions and at toe slopes due to sedimentation of previously eroded material. Soils within this area has been intensively investigated during the last several years (e.g. Jakšík et al., 2015; Vašát et al., 2014, 2015a,b). Soil sampling (disturbed and undisturbed 100-cm3 soil samples) was performed at 5 points of one elevation transect in November 2010 (after wheat sowing) and August 2011 (after wheat harvest). Disturbed soil samples were used to determine basic soil properties (grain size distribution and organic carbon content etc.). Undisturbed soil samples were used to determine the soil water retention curves and the hydraulic conductivity functions using the multiple outflow tests in Tempe cells and a numerical inversion with HYDRUS 1-D. Scaling factors (alpha-h for pressure head, alpha-theta for soil water contents and alpha-k for hydraulic conductivities) were used here to express soil hydraulic properties variability. Evaluated scaling factors reflected position within the elevation transect as well as time of soil sampling. In general large values of alpha-h, lower values of alpha-k and similar values of alpha-theta were obtained in 2010 in comparison to values obtained in 2011, which indicates development of soil structure during the vegetation season. Jakšík, O., Kodešová, R., Kubiš, A., Stehlíková, I., Drábek, O., Kapička, A. (2015): Soil aggregate stability within morphologically diverse areas. Catena, 127, 287-299. Vašát, R., Kode

  6. Reco level Smin and subsystem Smin: improved global inclusive variables for measuring the new physics mass scale in MET events at hadron colliders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konar, Partha; /Florida U.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC; Matchev, Konstantin T.; Park, Myeonghun; /Florida U.

    2011-08-11

    The variable {radical}s{sub min} was originally proposed in [1] as a model-independent, global and fully inclusive measure of the new physics mass scale in missing energy events at hadron colliders. In the original incarnation of {radical}s{sub min}, however, the connection to the new physics mass scale was blurred by the effects of the underlying event, most notably initial state radiation and multiple parton interactions. In this paper we advertize two improved variants of the {radical}s{sub min} variable, which overcome this problem. First we show that by evaluating the {radical}s{sub min} variable at the RECO level, in terms of the reconstructed objects in the event, the effects from the underlying event are significantly diminished and the nice correlation between the peak in the {radical}s{sub min}{sup (reco)} distribution and the new physics mass scale is restored. Secondly, the underlying event problem can be avoided altogether when the {radical}s{sub min} concept is applied to a subsystem of the event which does not involve any QCD jets. We supply an analytic formula for the resulting subsystem {radical}s{sub min}{sup (sub)} variable and show that its peak exhibits the usual correlation with the mass scale of the particles produced in the subsystem. Finally, we contrast {radical}s{sub min} to other popular inclusive variables such as H{sub T}, M{sub Tgen} and M{sub TTgen}. We illustrate our discussion with several examples from supersymmetry, and with dilepton events from top quark pair production.

  7. Utility-scale variable-speed wind turbines using a doubly-fed generator with a soft-switching power converter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weigand, C.H.; Lauw, H.K.; Marckx, D.A. [Electronic Power Conditioning, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Utility-scale wind turbines operating at variable RPM have been studied for a considerable period of time. Whereas the increase in energy output originally has been considered the principal benefit of variable-speed operation, the ability to tightly control the drive-train torque by electronic means is becoming another very important cost factor, especially for turbine ratings above 500 kilowatts. This cost benefit becomes even more significant as optimum turbine ratings today are approaching (and surpassing) 1 Megawatt. Having identified the benefits for the turbine, the designer is confronted with the task of finding the most cost-effective variable-speed generation system which allows him to make use of the benefits, yet does not introduce well-known electrical problems associated with state-of-the-art variable-speed generator controls, such as drastically reduced generator winding life, excessive harmonics on the utility, and poor utility power factor. This paper will indicate that for high-power (> 500 kW), utility-scale wind turbines a doubly-fed generator system in connection with a soft-switching resonant power converter is the least-cost variable-speed generation system offering all of the desired benefits, yet avoids the introduction of the potential electrical problems stated above. 3 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Recent hydrological variability and extreme precipitation events in Moroccan Middle-Atlas mountains: micro-scale analyses of lacustrine sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouve, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Adallal, Rachid; Bard, Edouard; Benkaddour, Abdel; Chapron, Emmanuel; Courp, Thierry; Dezileau, Laurent; Hébert, Bertil; Rhoujjati, Ali; Simonneau, Anaelle; Sonzogni, Corinne; Sylvestre, Florence; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Viry, Elisabeth

    2016-04-01

    Since the 1990s, the Mediterranean basin undergoes an increase in precipitation events and extreme droughts likely to intensify in the XXI century, and whose origin is attributable to human activities since 1850 (IPCC, 2013). Regional climate models indicate a strengthening of flood episodes at the end of the XXI century in Morocco (Tramblay et al, 2012). To understand recent hydrological and paleohydrological variability in North Africa, our study focuses on the macro- and micro-scale analysis of sedimentary sequences from Lake Azigza (Moroccan Middle Atlas Mountains) covering the last few centuries. This lake is relevant since local site monitoring revealed that lake water table levels were correlated with precipitation regime (Adallal R., PhD Thesis in progress). The aim of our study is to distinguish sedimentary facies characteristic of low and high lake levels, in order to reconstruct past dry and wet periods during the last two hundred years. Here, we present results from sedimentological (lithology, grain size, microstructures under thin sections), geochemical (XRF) and physical (radiography) analyses on short sedimentary cores (64 cm long) taken into the deep basin of Lake Azigza (30 meters water depth). Cores have been dated (radionuclides 210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C dating). Two main facies were distinguished: one organic-rich facies composed of wood fragments, several reworked layers and characterized by Mn peaks; and a second facies composed of terrigenous clastic sediments, without wood nor reworked layers, and characterized by Fe, Ti, Si and K peaks. The first facies is interpreted as a high lake level stand. Indeed, the highest paleoshoreline is close to the vegetation, and steeper banks can increase the current velocity, allowing the transport of wood fragments in case of extreme precipitation events. Mn peaks are interpreted as Mn oxides precipitations under well-oxygenated deep waters after runoff events. The second facies is linked to periods of

  9. Using satellite-based measurements to explore spatiotemporal scales and variability of drivers of new particle formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    New particle formation (NPF) can potentially alter regional climate by increasing aerosol particle (hereafter particle) number concentrations and ultimately cloud condensation nuclei. The large scales on which NPF is manifest indicate potential to use satellite-based (inherently ...

  10. Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, W.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

  11. Variability in depression prevalence in early rheumatoid arthritis: a comparison of the CES-D and HAD-D Scales

    OpenAIRE

    Emery Paul; Cox Sally; Tennant Alan; Pallant Julie F; Covic Tanya; Conaghan Philip G

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Background Depression is common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), however reported prevalence varies considerably. Two frequently used instruments to identify depression are the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The objectives of this study were to test if the CES-D and HADS-D (a) satisfy current modern psychometric standards for unidimensional measurement in an early RA sample; (b) measure the same construc...

  12. Performance Assessment of Full-Scale Wastewater Treatment Plants Based on Seasonal Variability of Microbial Communities via High-Throughput Sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Liu

    Full Text Available Microbial communities of activated sludge (AS play a key role in the performance of wastewater treatment processes. However, seasonal variability of microbial population in varying AS-based processes has been poorly correlated with operation of full-scale wastewater treatment systems (WWTSs. In this paper, significant seasonal variability of AS microbial communities in eight WWTSs located in the city of Guangzhou were revealed in terms of 16S rRNA-based Miseq sequencing. Furthermore, variation redundancy analysis (RDA demonstrated that the microbial community compositions closely correlated with WWTS operation parameters such as temperature, BOD, NH4+-N and TN. Consequently, support vector regression models which reasonably predicted effluent BOD, SS and TN in WWTSs were established based on microbial community compositions. This work provided an alternative tool for rapid assessment on performance of full-scale wastewater treatment plants.

  13. Governance of extended lifecycle in large-scale eHealth initiatives: analyzing variability of enterprise architecture elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mykkänen, Juha; Virkanen, Hannu; Tuomainen, Mika

    2013-01-01

    The governance of large eHealth initiatives requires traceability of many requirements and design decisions. We provide a model which we use to conceptually analyze variability of several enterprise architecture (EA) elements throughout the extended lifecycle of development goals using interrelated projects related to the national ePrescription in Finland.

  14. Spatio-temporal variability of soil water content on the local scale in a Mediterranean mountain area (Vallcebre, North Eastern Spain). How different spatio-temporal scales reflect mean soil water content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Antonio J.; Latron, Jérôme; Rubio, Carles M.; Gallart, Francesc; Llorens, Pilar

    2014-08-01

    As a result of complex human-land interactions and topographic variability, many Mediterranean mountain catchments are covered by agricultural terraces that have locally modified the soil water content dynamic. Understanding these local-scale dynamics helps us grasp better how hydrology behaves on the catchment scale. Thus, this study examined soil water content variability in the upper 30 cm of the soil on a Mediterranean abandoned terrace in north-east Spain. Using a dataset of high spatial (regular grid of 128 automatic TDR probes at 2.5 m intervals) and temporal (20-min time step) resolution, gathered throughout a 84-day period, the spatio-temporal variability of soil water content at the local scale and the way that different spatio-temporal scales reflect the mean soil water content were investigated. Soil water content spatial variability and its relation to wetness conditions were examined, along with the spatial structuring of the soil water content within the terrace. Then, the ability of single probes and of different combinations of spatial measurements (transects and grids) to provide a good estimate of mean soil water content on the terrace scale was explored by means of temporal stability analyses. Finally, the effect of monitoring frequency on the magnitude of detectable daily soil water content variations was studied. Results showed that soil water content spatial variability followed a bimodal pattern of increasing absolute variability with increasing soil water content. In addition, a linear trend of decreasing soil water content as the distance from the inner part of the terrace increased was identified. Once this trend was subtracted, resulting semi-variograms suggested that the spatial resolution examined was too high to appreciate spatial structuring in the data. Thus, the spatial pattern should be considered as random. Of all the spatial designs tested, the 10 × 10 m mesh grid (9 probes) was considered the most suitable option for a good

  15. Variability in depression prevalence in early rheumatoid arthritis: a comparison of the CES-D and HAD-D Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emery Paul

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Depression is common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA, however reported prevalence varies considerably. Two frequently used instruments to identify depression are the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D scale, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS. The objectives of this study were to test if the CES-D and HADS-D (a satisfy current modern psychometric standards for unidimensional measurement in an early RA sample; (b measure the same construct (i.e. depression; and (c identify similar levels of depression. Methods Data from the two scales completed by patients with early RA were fitted to the Rasch measurement model to show that (a each scale satisfies the criteria of fit to the model, including strict unidimensionality; (b that the scales can be co-calibrated onto a single underlying continuum of depression and to (c examine the location of the cut points on the underlying continuum as indication of the prevalence of depression. Results Ninety-two patients with early RA (62% female; mean age = 56.3, SD = 13.7 gave 141 sets of paired CES-D and HAD-D data. Fit of the data from the CES-D was found to be poor, and the scale had to be reduced to 13 items to satisfy Rasch measurement criteria whereas the HADS-D met model expectations from the outset. The 20 items combined (CES-D13 and HADS-D satisfied Rasch model expectations. The CES-D gave a much higher prevalence of depression than the HADS-D. Conclusion The CES-D in its present form is unsuitable for use in patients with early RA, and needs to be reduced to a 13-item scale. The HADS-D is valid for early RA and the two scales measure the same underlying construct but their cut points lead to different estimates of the level of depression. Revised cut points on the CES-D13 provide comparative prevalence rates.

  16. Variability in depression prevalence in early rheumatoid arthritis: a comparison of the CES-D and HAD-D Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covic, Tanya; Pallant, Julie F; Tennant, Alan; Cox, Sally; Emery, Paul; Conaghan, Philip G

    2009-01-01

    Background Depression is common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), however reported prevalence varies considerably. Two frequently used instruments to identify depression are the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The objectives of this study were to test if the CES-D and HADS-D (a) satisfy current modern psychometric standards for unidimensional measurement in an early RA sample; (b) measure the same construct (i.e. depression); and (c) identify similar levels of depression. Methods Data from the two scales completed by patients with early RA were fitted to the Rasch measurement model to show that (a) each scale satisfies the criteria of fit to the model, including strict unidimensionality; (b) that the scales can be co-calibrated onto a single underlying continuum of depression and to (c) examine the location of the cut points on the underlying continuum as indication of the prevalence of depression. Results Ninety-two patients with early RA (62% female; mean age = 56.3, SD = 13.7) gave 141 sets of paired CES-D and HAD-D data. Fit of the data from the CES-D was found to be poor, and the scale had to be reduced to 13 items to satisfy Rasch measurement criteria whereas the HADS-D met model expectations from the outset. The 20 items combined (CES-D13 and HADS-D) satisfied Rasch model expectations. The CES-D gave a much higher prevalence of depression than the HADS-D. Conclusion The CES-D in its present form is unsuitable for use in patients with early RA, and needs to be reduced to a 13-item scale. The HADS-D is valid for early RA and the two scales measure the same underlying construct but their cut points lead to different estimates of the level of depression. Revised cut points on the CES-D13 provide comparative prevalence rates. PMID:19200388

  17. Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

    2017-12-01

    The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (text">SM). text">SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of text">SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and text">SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where

  18. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

    2017-08-01

    The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over

  19. Simple Crosscutting Concerns Are Not So Simple : Analysing Variability in Large-Scale Idioms-Based Implementations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruntink, M.; Van Deursen, A.; d’Hondt, M.; Tourwé, T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a method for studying idioms-based implementations of crosscutting concerns, and our experiences with it in the context of a real-world, large-scale embedded software system. In particular, we analyse a seemingly simple concern, tracing, and show that it exhibits significant

  20. Low Oxygen Water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Monteiro, PMS

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available or mortality of rock lobster in the southern Benguela; Medium term (2 month) forecasting of the intensification of the remote forcing of ETSA derived LOW which has a bearing on the Namibian hake fishery These two scales are discussed in detail in the companion...

  1. Variability of bed mobility in natural, gravel-bed channels and adjustments to sediment load at local and reach scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Lisle; Jonathan M. Nelson; John Pitlick; Mary Ann Madej; Brent L. Barkett

    2000-01-01

    Abstract - Local variations in boundary shear stress acting on bed-surface particles control patterns of bed load transport and channel evolution during varying stream discharges. At the reach scale a channel adjusts to imposed water and sediment supply through mutual interactions among channel form, local grain size, and local flow dynamics that govern bed mobility...

  2. A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Naiming; Xoplaki, Elena; Zhu, Congwen; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, two new methods, Temporal evolution of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDCCA) and Temporal evolution of Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDPCCA), are proposed by generalizing DCCA and DPCCA. Applying TDCCA/TDPCCA, it is possible to study correlations on multi-time scales and over different periods. To illustrate their properties, we used two climatological examples: i) Global Sea Level (GSL) versus North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and ii) Summer Rainfall over Yangtze River (SRYR) versus previous winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find significant correlations between GSL and NAO on time scales of 60 to 140 years, but the correlations are non-significant between 1865-1875. As for SRYR and PDO, significant correlations are found on time scales of 30 to 35 years, but the correlations are more pronounced during the recent 30 years. By combining TDCCA/TDPCCA and DCCA/DPCCA, we proposed a new correlation-detection system, which compared to traditional methods, can objectively show how two time series are related (on which time scale, during which time period). These are important not only for diagnosis of complex system, but also for better designs of prediction models. Therefore, the new methods offer new opportunities for applications in natural sciences, such as ecology, economy, sociology and other research fields.

  3. Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional

  4. Pore-scale modeling of vapor transport in partially saturated capillary tube with variable area using chemical potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addassi, Mouadh; Schreyer, Lynn; Johannesson, Björn

    2016-01-01

    Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters and the nu......Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters...... and the numerical solutions to the equation are compared with experimental results with excellent agreement. We demonstrate that isothermal vapor transport can be accurately modeled without modeling the details of the contact angle, microscale temperature fluctuations, or pressure fluctuations using a modification...

  5. A large-scale study of the random variability of a coding sequence: a study on the CFTR gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiano, Guido; Bombieri, Cristina; Ciminelli, Bianca Maria; Belpinati, Francesca; Giorgi, Silvia; Georges, Marie des; Scotet, Virginie; Pompei, Fiorenza; Ciccacci, Cinzia; Guittard, Caroline; Audrézet, Marie Pierre; Begnini, Angela; Toepfer, Michael; Macek, Milan; Ferec, Claude; Claustres, Mireille; Pignatti, Pier Franco

    2005-02-01

    Coding single nucleotide substitutions (cSNSs) have been studied on hundreds of genes using small samples (n(g) approximately 100-150 genes). In the present investigation, a large random European population sample (average n(g) approximately 1500) was studied for a single gene, the CFTR (Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane conductance Regulator). The nonsynonymous (NS) substitutions exhibited, in accordance with previous reports, a mean probability of being polymorphic (q > 0.005), much lower than that of the synonymous (S) substitutions, but they showed a similar rate of subpolymorphic (q < 0.005) variability. This indicates that, in autosomal genes that may have harmful recessive alleles (nonduplicated genes with important functions), genetic drift overwhelms selection in the subpolymorphic range of variability, making disadvantageous alleles behave as neutral. These results imply that the majority of the subpolymorphic nonsynonymous alleles of these genes are selectively negative or even pathogenic.

  6. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  7. (Tele)Connectivity in climate variability at different spatial/temporal scales in relation to solar and geomagnetic activity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paluš, Milan; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Novotná, Dagmar

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 13, - (2011), s. 9579 ISSN 1607-7962. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011. 03.04.2011-08.04.2011, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300420805 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : climate variability * phase coherence * synchronization * North Atlantic Oscillation * solar activity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  8. Operational Analysis of Distribution Systems Featuring Large-scale Variable RES: Contributions of Energy Storage Systems and Switchable Capacitor Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Mário Pascoal Santos Pereira

    2017-01-01

    In the last decade, the level of variable renewable energy sources (RESs) integrated in distribution network systems have been continuously growing. This adds more uncertainty to these systems, which also face many traditional sources of uncertainty, and those pertaining to other emerging technologies such as demand response and electric vehicles. As a result, distribution system operators are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain an optimal operation of such network systems. These ch...

  9. Short-term radio variability and parsec-scale structure in A gamma-ray narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 0323+342

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wajima, Kiyoaki [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200030 (China); Fujisawa, Kenta [The Research Institute for Time Studies, Yamaguchi University, 1677-1 Yoshida, Yamaguchi, Yamaguchi 753-8511 (Japan); Hayashida, Masaaki [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan); Isobe, Naoki [The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Ishida, Takafumi [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, 1677-1 Yoshida, Yamaguchi, Yamaguchi 753-8512 (Japan); Yonekura, Yoshinori, E-mail: kwajima@shao.ac.cn [Center for Astronomy, Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512 (Japan)

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 10{sup 11} K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 10{sup 10} K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 10{sup 24.6} W Hz{sup –1}. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  10. Centennial-scale vegetation dynamics and climate variability in SE Europe during Marine Isotope Stage 11 based on a pollen record from Lake Ohrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kousis, Ilias; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Peyron, Odile; Leicher, Niklas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Giaccio, Biagio; Knipping, Maria; Pross, Jörg

    2018-06-01

    To better understand climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, we here present a new, centennial-scale-resolution pollen record from Lake Ohrid (Balkan Peninsula) derived from sediment cores retrieved during an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) campaign. Our palynological data, augmented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions, provide insight into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability in SE Europe during one of the best orbital analogues for the Holocene. Comparison of our palynological results with other proxy data from Lake Ohrid as well as with regional and global climate records shows that the vegetation in SE Europe responded sensitively both to long- and short-term climate change during MIS 11. The chronology of our palynological record is based on orbital tuning, and is further supported by the detection of a new tephra from the Vico volcano, central Italy, dated to 410 ± 2 ka. Our study indicates that MIS 11c (∼424-398 ka) was the warmest interval of MIS 11. The younger part of the interglacial (i.e., MIS 11b-11a; ∼398-367 ka) exhibits a gradual cooling trend passing over into MIS 10. It is characterized by considerable millennial-scale variability as inferred by six abrupt forest-contraction events. Interestingly, the first forest contraction occurred during full interglacial conditions of MIS 11c; this event lasted for ∼1.7 kyrs (406.2-404.5 ka) and was characterized by substantial reductions in winter temperature and annual precipitation. Most notably, it occurred ∼7 ka before the end of MIS 11c and ∼15 ka before the first strong ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that millennial-scale climate variability during MIS 11 was established in Southern Europe already during MIS 11c, which is earlier than in the North Atlantic where it is registered only from MIS 11b onwards.

  11. Multi-scale linkages of winter drought variability to ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation: A case study in Shaanxi, North China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhang, Xin; Fang, Ruihong

    2018-02-01

    Understanding the potential connections between climate indices such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought variability will be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts, and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design for specific regions of interest. This study is to examine the multi-scale relationships between winter drought variability over Shaanxi (North China) and both ENSO and AO during the period 1960-2009. To accomplish this, we first estimated winter dryness/wetness conditions over Shaanxi based on the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). Then, we identified the spatiotemporal variability of winter dryness/wetness conditions in the study area by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF). Two primary sub-regions of winter dryness/wetness conditions across Shaanxi were identified. We further examined the periodical oscillations of dryness/wetness conditions and the multi-scale relationships between dryness/wetness conditions and both ENSO and AO in winter using wavelet analysis. The results indicate that there are inverse multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and ENSO (according to the wavelet coherence) for most of the study area. Moreover, positive multi-scale relations between winter dryness/wetness conditions and AO are mainly observed. The results could be beneficial for making reasonable predictions or assumptions about future regional droughts and provide valuable information to improve water resources planning and design within this study area. In addition to the current study area, this study may also offer a useful reference for other regions worldwide with similar climate conditions.

  12. Centimeter-scale spatial variability in 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid mineralization increases with depth in agricultural soil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badawi, Nora; Johnsen, Anders R.; Sørensen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Mineralization of organic chemicals in soil is typically studied using large homogenized samples, but little is known about the small-scale spatial distribution of mineralization potential. We studied centimeter-scale spatial distribution of 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA) mineralization...... was mineralized in all samples in the plow layer, but only about 60% in the transition zone immediately below the plow layer showed mineralization; at greater depth even fewer samples showed mineralization. A patchy spatial distribution of mineralization activity was observed from right below the plow layer...... activity at different depths (8-115 cm) in a Danish agricultural soil profi le using a 96-well microplate C-radiorespirometric method for small-volume samples. The heterotrophic microbial population and specifi c MCPA degraders decreased 10- to 100-fold from the plow layer to a depth of 115 cm. MCPA...

  13. Variability at Multiple Scales: Using an Array of Current and Pressure Sensor Equipped Inverted Echo Sounders to Measure the Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-29

    of Current- and Pressure - Sensor Equipped Inverted Echo Sounders to Measure the Ocean 5b. GRANT NUMBER NOOO 14-15-1-2857 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...inverted echo sounders (lESs) equipped with pressure and current sensors (CPIESs). CPIESs are moored instruments that measure the round-trip acoustic...at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The goals of this project were to enhance the pool of pressure - sensor equipped lESs available at the

  14. Decadal Western Pacific Warm Pool Variability: A Centroid and Heat Content Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Autumn; Han, Lu; Jo, Young-Heon; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2017-10-13

    We examine several characteristics of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WP) in the past thirty years of mixed interannual variability and climate change. Our study presents the three-dimensional WP centroid (WPC) movement, WP heat content anomaly (HC) and WP volume (WPV) on interannual to decadal time scales. We show the statistically significant correlation between each parameter's interannual anomaly and the NINO 3, NINO 3.4, NINO 4, SOI, and PDO indices. The longitudinal component of the WPC is most strongly correlated with NINO 4 (R = 0.78). The depth component of the WPC has the highest correlation (R = -0.6) with NINO3.4. The WPV and NINO4 have an R-Value of -0.65. HC has the highest correlation with NINO3.4 (R = -0.52). During the study period of 1982-2014, the non-linear trends, derived from ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), show that the WPV, WP depth and HC have all increased. The WPV has increased by 14% since 1982 and the HC has increased from -1 × 10 8  J/m 2 in 1993 to 10 × 10 8  J/m 2 in 2014. While the largest variances in the latitudinal and longitudinal WPC locations are associated with annual and seasonal timescales, the largest variances in the WPV and HC are due to the multi-decadal non-linear trend.

  15. The role of storage capacity in coping with intra-annual runoff variability on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaupp, Franziska; Hall, Jim; Dadson, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Intra-annual variability poses a risk to water security in many basins as runoff is unevenly distributed over the year. Areas such as Northern Africa, Australia and the South-Western USA are characterized by a high coefficient of variability of monthly runoff. Analyzing the global risk of water scarcity, this study examines 680 basin-country units (BCUs) (403 river basins divided by country borders). By calculating the water balance for each BCU, the interplay of runoff on the one hand and domestic, industrial and environmental water needs on the other hand is shown. In contrast to other studies on average water scarcity, this work focuses on variability of water supply as metrics based on annual average water availability and demand can underestimate the risk of scarcity. The model is based on the assumption that each country-basin with sub-basins and tributaries can be treated as one single reservoir with storage capacity aggregated over that BCU. It includes surface runoff and the possibility to withdraw groundwater as water supply. The storage capacity of each BCU represents the ability to transfer water from wet months to dry months in order to buffer and cope with intra-annual water supply variability and to meet total water demand. Average monthly surface runoff per country-basin for the period 1979 to 2012 is derived from outcomes of the hydrological model Mac-PDM. Mac-PDM is forced with monthly ERAI-Interim reanalysis climate data on a one degree resolution. Groundwater withdrawal capacity, total water demand and storage capacity are taken from the IMPACT model provided by the International Food Research Institute (IFPRI). Storage refers to any kind of surface reservoir whose water can be managed and used for human activities in the industrial, domestic and agricultural sectors. Groundwater withdrawal capacity refers to the technological capacity to pump water rather than the amount of groundwater available. Total water demand includes consumptive water

  16. Climate change and the impact of increased rainfall variability on sediment transport and catchment scale water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.

    2009-12-01

    Recently there has been recognition that changing climate will affect rainfall and storm patterns with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and resultant water quality for a well studied tropical monsoonal catchment that is undisturbed by Europeans in the Northern Territory, Australia. Water quality has a large affect on a range of aquatic flora and fauna and a significant change in sediment could have impacts on the aquatic ecosystems. There have been several studies of the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns in the study area with projections indicating a significant increase in storm activity. Therefore it is important that the impact of this variability be assessed in terms of catchment hydrology, sediment transport and water quality. Here a numerical model of erosion and hydrology (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The results show that that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted water quality was variable and non-linear but within the range of measured field data for the catchment and region. Therefore an assessment of sediment transport and water quality is a significant and complex issue that requires further understandings of the role of biophysical feedbacks such as vegetation as well as the role of humans in managing landscapes (i.e. controlled and uncontrolled fire). The study provides a robust methodology for assessing the impact of enhanced climate variability on sediment transport and water quality.

  17. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  18. Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

  19. Short-scale temporal variability of physical, biological and biogeochemical processes in the NW Mediterranean Sea: an introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Andersen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of the PROOF-PECHE project (http://www.obs-vlfr.fr/proof/vt/op/ec/peche/pec.htm a multi-disciplinary team performed experiments and collected samples during the DYNAPROC 2 cruise aboard the RV Thalassa from September to October in 2004. The cruise provided data on the functioning of the pelagic food web by sampling over a month long period in the NW Mediterranean Sea at a fixed station subject to weak horizontal advection currents during a period of hydrological stability. This paper describes the background of the cruise and provides an overview of the results derived from the campaign which constitute the special section. The major objective of the cruise was to assess the relative importance and variability of the pathways of carbon in the open ocean. Intensive sampling through 4 periods of 5 days each was accomplished at a site near the DYFAMED time-series site. The site was near stable in terms of hydrodynamics as there was some evidence of an intrusion of low-salinity coastal water. The cruise yielded a comprehensive data set acquired by sampling over a vertical spatial dimension (0–1000 m and at high frequencies (ranging from every 3, 6, 12 and/or 24 h, unique for the summer to autumn transition in the North Western Mediterranean. Parameters investigated included the biochemical composition of dissolved organic matter (lipids, and the structure of bacterial communities, phytoplankton and zooplankton community compositions and abundances, as well as zooplankton metabolism, and particulate organic carbon fluxes. Nearly all the parameters described in this section, as well as reports appearing elsewhere, showed time-course variabilities of similar magnitude to those known from a previous study of the spring-summer seasonal transition, a period of marked hydrological change, at the same study site. Remarkably, the least variable characteristic

  20. Sign and magnitude scaling properties of heart rate variability in patients with end-stage renal failure: Are these properties useful to identify pathophysiological adaptations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerma, Claudia; Echeverría, Juan C.; Infante, Oscar; Pérez-Grovas, Héctor; González-Gómez, Hortensia

    2017-09-01

    The scaling properties of heart rate variability data are reliable dynamical features to predict mortality and for the assessment of cardiovascular risk. The aim of this manuscript was to determine if the scaling properties, as provided by the sign and magnitude analysis, can be used to differentiate between pathological changes and those adaptations basically introduced by modifications of the mean heart rate in distinct manoeuvres (active standing or hemodialysis treatment, HD), as well as clinical conditions (end stage renal disease, ESRD). We found that in response to active standing, the short-term scaling index (α1) increased in healthy subjects and in ESRD patients only after HD. The sign short-term scaling exponent (α1sign) increased in healthy subjects and ESRD patients, showing a less anticorrelated behavior in active standing. Both α1 and α1sign did show covariance with the mean heart rate in healthy subjects, while in ESRD patients, this covariance was observed only after HD. A reliable estimation of the magnitude short-term scaling exponent (α1magn) required the analysis of time series with a large number of samples (>3000 data points). This exponent was similar for both groups and conditions and did not show covariance with the mean heart rate. A surrogate analysis confirmed the presence of multifractal properties (α1magn > 0.5) in the time series of healthy subjects and ESDR patients. In conclusion, α1 and α1sign provided insights into the physiological adaptations during active standing, which revealed a transitory impairment before HD in ESRD patients. The presence of multifractal properties indicated that a reduced short-term variability does not necessarily imply a declined regulatory complexity in these patients.

  1. Collaborative project. Ocean-atmosphere interaction from meso-to planetary-scale. Mechanisms, parameterization, and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Richard [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bryan, Frank [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tribbia, Joseph [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Park, Sungsu [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dennis, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Saravanan, R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Niklas [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Kwon, Young-Oh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-06-11

    This project aims to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving ocean mesoscale activity and the corresponding response in the atmosphere. The main computational objectives are; i) to perform and assess Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations with the new Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) spectral element dynamical core; ii) use static mesh refinement to focus on oceanic fronts; iii) develop a new Earth System Modeling tool to investigate the atmospheric response to fronts by selectively filtering surface flux fields in the CESM coupler. The climate research objectives are 1) to improve the coupling of ocean fronts and the atmospheric boundary layer via investigations of dependency on model resolution and stability functions: 2) to understand and simulate the ensuing tropospheric response that has recently been documented in observations: and 3) to investigate the relationship of ocean frontal variability to low frequency climate variability and the accompanying storm tracks and extremes in high resolution simulations. This is a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of computational scientists, climate scientists and climate model developers. It specifically aims at DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  2. Effects from influent boundary conditions on tracer migration and spatial variability features in intermediate-scale experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuentes, H.R.; Polzer, W.L.; Springer, E.P.

    1987-04-01

    In previous unsaturated transport studies at Los Alamos dispersion coefficients were estimated to be higher close to the tracer source than at greater distances from the source. Injection of tracers through discrete influent outlets could have accounted for those higher dispersions. Also, a lack of conservation of mass of the tracers was observed and suspected to be due to spatial variability in transport. In the present study experiments were performed under uniform influent (ponded) conditions in which breakthrough of tracers was monitored at four locations at each of four depths. All other conditions were similar to those of the unsaturated transport experiments. A comparison of results from these two sets of experiments indicates differences in the parameter estimates. Estimates were made for the dispersion coefficient and the retardation factor by the one-dimensional steady flow computer code, CFITIM. Estimates were also made for mass and for velocity and the dispersion coefficient by the method of moments. The dispersion coefficient decreased with depth under discrete influent application and increased with depth under ponded influent application. Retardation was predicted better under the discrete influent application than under ponded influent application. Differences in breakthroughs and in estimated parameters among locations at the same depth were observed under ponded influent application. Those differences indicate that there is a lack of conservation of mass as well as significant spatial variability across the experimental domain. 14 refs., 9 figs., 8 tabs

  3. Quantifying small-scale spatio-temporal variability of snow stratigraphy in forests based on high-resolution snow penetrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teich, M.; Hagenmuller, P.; Bebi, P.; Jenkins, M. J.; Giunta, A. D.; Schneebeli, M.

    2017-12-01

    Snow stratigraphy, the characteristic layering within a seasonal snowpack, has important implications for snow remote sensing, hydrology and avalanches. Forests modify snowpack properties through interception, wind speed reduction, and changes to the energy balance. The lack of snowpack observations in forests limits our ability to understand the evolution of snow stratigraphy and its spatio-temporal variability as a function of forest structure and to observe snowpack response to changes in forest cover. We examined the snowpack under canopies of a spruce forest in the central Rocky Mountains, USA, using the SnowMicroPen (SMP), a high resolution digital penetrometer. Weekly-repeated penetration force measurements were recorded along 10 m transects every 0.3 m in winter 2015 and bi-weekly along 20 m transects every 0.5 m in 2016 in three study plots beneath canopies of undisturbed, bark beetle-disturbed and harvested forest stands, and an open meadow. To disentangle information about layer hardness and depth variabilities, and to quantitatively compare the different SMP profiles, we applied a matching algorithm to our dataset, which combines several profiles by automatically adjusting their layer thicknesses. We linked spatial and temporal variabilities of penetration force and depth, and thus snow stratigraphy to forest and meteorological conditions. Throughout the season, snow stratigraphy was more heterogeneous in undisturbed but also beneath bark beetle-disturbed forests. In contrast, and despite remaining small diameter trees and woody debris, snow stratigraphy was rather homogenous at the harvested plot. As expected, layering at the non-forested plot varied only slightly over the small spatial extent sampled. At the open and harvested plots, persistent crusts and ice lenses were clearly present in the snowpack, while such hard layers barely occurred beneath undisturbed and disturbed canopies. Due to settling, hardness significantly increased with depth at

  4. A quality by design (QbD case study on enteric-coated pellets: Screening of critical variables and establishment of design space at laboratory scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuling Kan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to prepare naproxen enteric-coated pellets (NAP-ECPs by fluid-bed coating using QbD principle. Risk assessment was firstly performed by using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA methodology. A Plackett–Burman design was then used for assessment of the most important variables affecting enteric-coated pellets characteristics. A Box–Behnken design was subsequently used for investigating the main, interactive, and quadratic effects of these variables on the response. By FMEA we discovered that eight factors should be considered to be high/important risk variables as compared with others. The responses of acid resistance and cumulative drug release were taken as critical quality attributes (CQAs. Pareto ranking analyses indicated that the coating weight gain (X7, triethyl citrate percentage (X1 and glycerol monostearate percentage (X2 were the most significant factors affecting the selected responses out of the eight high-risk variables. Optimization with response surface method (RSM further fully clarified the relationship between X7, X1, X2 and CQAs, and design space was established based on the constraints set on the responses. Due to the extreme coincidence of the predicted value generated by model with the observed value, the accuracy and robustness of the model were confirmed. It could be concluded that a promising NAP-ECPs was successfully designed using QbD approach in a laboratory scale.

  5. MINUTE-SCALE RAPID VARIABILITY OF THE OPTICAL POLARIZATION IN THE NARROW-LINE SEYFERT 1 GALAXY PMN J0948+0022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itoh, Ryosuke; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Fukazawa, Yasushi; Kawaguchi, Kenji; Takaki, Katsutoshi; Ueno, Issei [Department of Physical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Kawabata, Koji S.; Moritani, Yuki; Uemura, Makoto; Akitaya, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Ohsugi, Takashi [Hiroshima Astrophysical Science Center, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Hanayama, Hidekazu; Miyaji, Takeshi [Ishigakijima Astronomical Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 1024-1 Arakawa, Ishigaki, Okinawa 907-0024 (Japan); Kawai, Nobuyuki, E-mail: itoh@hep01.hepl.hiroshima-u.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan)

    2013-09-20

    We report on optical photopolarimetric results of the radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1 (RL-NLSy1) galaxy PMN J0948+0022 on 2012 December to 2013 February triggered by flux enhancements in the near infrared and γ-ray bands. With the one-shot polarimetry of the Hiroshima One-shot Wide field Polarimeter installed on the Kanata Telescope, we detected very rapid variability in the polarized-flux (PF) light curve on MJD 56281 (2012 December 20). The rise and decay times were about 140 s and 180 s, respectively. The polarization degree (PD) reached 36% ± 3% at the peak of the short-duration pulse, while the polarization angle remained almost constant. In addition, temporal profiles of the total flux and PD showed highly variable but well correlated behavior and discrete correlation function analysis revealed that no significant time lag of more than 10 minutes was present. The high PD and minute-scale variability in PF provides clear evidence of synchrotron radiation from a very compact emission region of ∼10{sup 14} cm size with a highly ordered magnetic field. Such micro-variability of polarization is also observed in several blazar jets, but its complex relation between total flux and PD are explained by a multi-zone model in several blazars. The implied single emission region in PMN J0948+0022 might reflect a difference of jets between RL-NLSy1s and blazars.

  6. Comparing Building and Neighborhood-Scale Variability of CO₂ and O₃ to Inform Deployment Considerations for Low-Cost Sensor System Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier-Oxandale, Ashley; Coffey, Evan; Thorson, Jacob; Johnston, Jill; Hannigan, Michael

    2018-04-26

    The increased use of low-cost air quality sensor systems, particularly by communities, calls for the further development of best-practices to ensure these systems collect usable data. One area identified as requiring more attention is that of deployment logistics, that is, how to select deployment sites and how to strategically place sensors at these sites. Given that sensors are often placed at homes and businesses, ideal placement is not always possible. Considerations such as convenience, access, aesthetics, and safety are also important. To explore this issue, we placed multiple sensor systems at an existing field site allowing us to examine both neighborhood-level and building-level variability during a concurrent period for CO₂ (a primary pollutant) and O₃ (a secondary pollutant). In line with previous studies, we found that local and transported emissions as well as thermal differences in sensor systems drive variability, particularly for high-time resolution data. While this level of variability is unlikely to affect data on larger averaging scales, this variability could impact analysis if the user is interested in high-time resolution or examining local sources. However, with thoughtful placement and thorough documentation, high-time resolution data at the neighborhood level has the potential to provide us with entirely new information on local air quality trends and emissions.

  7. Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

  8. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  9. Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobinski, P.; Bastin, S.; Dabas, A.; Delville, P.; Reitebuch, O.

    2006-08-01

    Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D) mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb), and to the sea breeze depth (zsb) and intensity (usb). They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i) the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii) the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys) affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area. Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i) latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii) in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted); and (iii) the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

  10. Assessing Spatial Variability of Grape Skin Flavonoids at the Vineyard Scale Based on Plant Water Status Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brillante, Luca; Martínez-Luscher, Johann; Yu, Runze; Plank, Cassandra M; Sanchez, Luis; Bates, Terrence L; Brenneman, Charles; Oberholster, Anita; Kurtural, S Kaan

    2017-07-05

    Plant water stress affects grape (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Cabernet Sauvignon) berry composition and is variable in space due to variations in the physical environment at the growing site. We monitored the natural variability of grapevine water stress by stem water potential (Ψ stem ) and leaf gas exchange in an equi-distant grid in a commercial vineyard. Spatial differences were measured and related to topographical variation by modeling. Geospatial analysis and clustering allowed researchers to differentiate the vineyard block into two distinct zones having severe and moderate water stress where it varied by 0.2 MPa. Differences in stem water potential affected stomatal conductance, net carbon assimilation, and intrinsic water use efficiency that were different in all measurement dates. The two zones were selectively sampled at harvest for measurements of berry chemistry. The water status zones did not affect berry mass or yield per vine. Significant difference in total soluble solids was observed (3.56 Brix), and in titratable acidity, thus indicating a direct effect of water stress on ripening acceleration. Berry skin flavonol and anthocyanin composition and concentration were measured by C18 reversed-phased high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The anthocyanins were most affected by the two water stress zones. The dihydroxylated anthocyanins were more affected than trihydroxylated; therefore, the ratio of the two forms increased. Flavonols were different in total amounts, but hydroxylation patterns were not affected. Proanthocyanidin isolates were characterized by acid catalysis in the presence of excess phloroglucinol followed by reversed-phase HPLC. Proanthocyanidins showed the least significant difference, although (+)-catechin terminal subunits were important predictors in a partial least square model used to summarize the multivariate relationships, predicting Ψ stem or the management zone. The results provide fundamental information on vineyard

  11. Variability in methane emissions from West Siberia's shallow boreal lakes on a regional scale and its environmental controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Sabrekov

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Small lakes represent an important source of atmospheric CH4 from northern wetlands. However, spatiotemporal variations in flux magnitudes and the lack of knowledge about their main environmental controls contribute large uncertainty into the global CH4 budget. In this study, we measured methane fluxes from small lakes using chambers and bubble traps. Field investigations were carried out in July–August 2014 within the West Siberian middle and southern taiga zones. The average and median of measured methane chamber fluxes were 0.32 and 0.30 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for middle taiga lakes and 8.6 and 4.1 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for southern taiga lakes, respectively. Pronounced flux variability was found during measurements on individual lakes, between individual lakes and between zones. To analyze these differences and the influences of environmental controls, we developed a new dynamic process-based model. It shows good performance with emission rates from the southern taiga lakes and poor performance for individual lakes in the middle taiga region. The model shows that, in addition to well-known controls such as temperature, pH and lake depth, there are significant variations in the maximal methane production potential between these climatic zones. In addition, the model shows that variations in gas-filled pore space in lake sediments are capable of controlling the total methane emissions from individual lakes. The CH4 emissions exhibited distinct zonal differences not only in absolute values but also in their probability density functions: the middle taiga lake fluxes were best described by a lognormal distribution while the southern taiga lakes followed a power-law distribution. The latter suggests applicability of self-organized criticality theory for methane emissions from the southern taiga zone, which could help to explain the strong variability within individual lakes.

  12. A Field Study of Pixel-Scale Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution in the MidAtlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokay, Ali; D'adderio, Leo Pio; Wolff, David P.; Petersen, Walter A.

    2016-01-01

    The spatial variability of parameters of the raindrop size distribution and its derivatives is investigated through a field study where collocated Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel2) and two-dimensional video disdrometers were operated at six sites at Wallops Flight Facility, Virginia, from December 2013 to March 2014. The three-parameter exponential function was employed to determine the spatial variability across the study domain where the maximum separation distance was 2.3 km. The nugget parameter of the exponential function was set to 0.99 and the correlation distance d0 and shape parameter s0 were retrieved by minimizing the root-mean-square error, after fitting it to the correlations of physical parameters. Fits were very good for almost all 15 physical parameters. The retrieved d0 and s0 were about 4.5 km and 1.1, respectively, for rain rate (RR) when all 12 disdrometers were reporting rainfall with a rain-rate threshold of 0.1 mm h1 for 1-min averages. The d0 decreased noticeably when one or more disdrometers were required to report rain. The d0 was considerably different for a number of parameters (e.g., mass-weighted diameter) but was about the same for the other parameters (e.g., RR) when rainfall threshold was reset to 12 and 18 dBZ for Ka- and Ku-band reflectivity, respectively, following the expected Global Precipitation Measurement missions spaceborne radar minimum detectable signals. The reduction of the database through elimination of a site did not alter d0 as long as the fit was adequate. The correlations of 5-min rain accumulations were lower when disdrometer observations were simulated for a rain gauge at different bucket sizes.

  13. Assessing the water balance in the Sahel : Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff. Part 2 : Idealized modeling of runoff sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Vischel, Théo; Lebel, Thierry

    2007-01-01

    As in many other semi-arid regions in the world, the Sahelian hydrological environment is characterized by a mosaic of small endoreic catchments with dry soil surface conditions producing mostly Hortonian runoff. Using an SCS-type event based rainfall-runoff model, an idealized modeling experiment of a Sahelian environment is set up to study the sensitivity of runoff to small scale rainfall variability. A set of 548 observed rain events is used to force the hydrological model to study the sen...

  14. Ecohydrological Linkages, Multi-scale Processes, Temporal Variability, and Drivers of Change in a Degraded Pinyon-Juniper Watershed: Implications for Erosion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2006-12-01

    In 1993 long-term research began on the runoff and erosion dynamics of a pinyon-juniper woodland hillslope at Bandelier National Monument in northern New Mexico (USA). In the 1.09 ha Frijolito watershed, erosion has been continuously studied at 3 spatial scales: 1 square meter, about 1000 square meters, and the entire watershed. This site is currently representative of degraded woodlands of pinyon (Pinus edulis) and one-seed juniper (Juniperus monosperma) in this region, exhibiting marked connectivity of exposed bare soil interspaces between tree canopy patches and obvious geomorphic signs of accelerated soil erosion (e.g., pedestalling, actively expanding rill networks). Ecological and land use histories show that this site has undergone a number of dramatic ecohydrological shifts since ca. C.E. 1850, transitioning from: 1) open ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) overstory with limited pinyon-juniper component and substantial herbaceous understory that supported surface fires and constrained soil erosion, to; 2) ponderosa pine with reduced herbaceous cover due to livestock grazing after ca.1870, resulting in collapse of the surface fire regime and increased establishment of young pinyon and juniper trees, to; 3) mortality of all of the ponderosa pine during the extreme drought of the 1950s, leaving eroding pinyon-juniper woodland, to; 4) mortality of all mature pinyon at or above sapling size during the 2002-2003 drought, with juniper now the only dominant woody species. Detailed measurements since 1993 document high rates of soil erosion (> 2.75 Mg/ha/year on average at the watershed scale) that are rapidly stripping the local soils. Long-term observations are needed to distinguish short-term variability from longer term trends, as measurements of runoff and erosion show extreme variability at multiple time scales since 1993. The multi-scale erosion data from the Frijolito watershed reveal little dropoff in erosion rate (g/meter-squared) between the one meter

  15. Performance of some biotic indices in the real variable world: A case study at different spatial scales in North-Western Mediterranean Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tataranni, Mariella; Lardicci, Claudio

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the variability of four different benthic biotic indices (AMBI, BENTIX, H', M-AMBI) in two marine coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea. In each coastal area, 36 replicates were randomly selected according to a hierarchical sampling design, which allowed estimating the variance components of the indices associated with four different spatial scales (ranging from metres to kilometres). All the analyses were performed at two different sampling periods in order to evaluate if the observed trends were consistent over the time. The variance components of the four indices revealed complex trends and different patterns in the two sampling periods. These results highlighted that independently from the employed index, a rigorous and appropriate sampling design taking into account different scales should always be used in order to avoid erroneous classifications and to develop effective monitoring programs. - How heterogeneous distribution of macrobenthos can affect the performance of some biotic indices.

  16. Flicker Mitigation by Active Power Control of Variable-Speed Wind Turbines With Full-Scale Back-to-Back Power Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Wang, Zhaoan

    2009-01-01

    /EMTDC. Flicker emission of this system is investigated. Reactive power compensation is mostly adopted for flicker mitigation. However, the flicker mitigation technique shows its limits, when the grid impedance angle is low in some distribution networks. A new method of flicker mitigation by controlling active...... power is proposed. It smoothes the 3p active power oscillations from wind shear and tower shadow effects of the wind turbine by varying the dc-link voltage of the full-scale converter. Simulation results show that damping the 3p active power oscillation by using the flicker mitigation controller...... is an effective means for flicker mitigation of variable-speed wind turbines with full-scale back-to-back power converters during continuous operation....

  17. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-07-26

    In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

  18. Cm-scale Heterogeneity in Degradation - Potential Impact on Leaching of MCPA through a Variably-Saturated Macroporous Clayey Till

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette Elisabeth; Johnsen, Anders R.; Aamand, Jens

    with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 2) preferential flow (including a wormhole) of water with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 3) simple matrix flow of water with average biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes, which corresponds to results derived from a conventional homogenized soil sample; 4...... both flow and degradation are associated with macropores/wormholes. Results show that cm-scale heterogeneity in degradation potential with simple matrix flow has a negligible effect on MCPA leaching at one meter below soil surface. By introducing a wormhole in the low-permeable 3D-soil modeling domain......, however, the risk of MCPA-leaching below one meter depth increase drastically with low degradation potential along the wall of macropores/wormholes....

  19. Millennial-Scale Planktic Foraminifer Faunal Variability in the East China Sea during the Past 40000 Years (IMAGES MD012404 from the Okinawa Trough

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Pin Chang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available High resolution planktic foraminifer fauna assemblage data are used to reconstruct the millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST variability of the past 40000 years at an IMAGES core site (MD012404 in the Okinawa Trough in the East China Sea (ECS. The fauna assemblages in core MD012404 are dominated by five species - Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerina bulloides, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, and Globigerinita glutinata, which account for > 70% in relative abundance. Our Q-mode factor analysis decomposed the fauna abundance data into three factors, which indicate cold water mass, warm water mass, and possibly coastal water flow with low salinity in the ECS. The MD012404 fauna data show abrupt changes at ~16 kya, suggesting a return to a warmer climate or warm water intrusion of the Kuroshio into the Okinawa Trough since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM. SST estimates based on the fauna assemblages of planktic foraminifers indicate a LGM cooling of 1 - 2°C. Amaximum cooling by 3 - 4°C is observed in episodic, millennial-scale events in the glacial stages of the record. The SST record displays variability that closely tracks the structure of oxygen isotopes of stalagmites from Hulu Cave and ice cores from GISP 2 Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles and Heinrich events. Low salinity in the ECS is inferred based on MD012404 fauna SST and planktic foraminifer oxygen isotope records for the cold millennial-scale intervals, pointing to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and/or East Asian monsoon as important factors driving SST and salinity in the subtropical western Pacific, both on orbital and suborbital time scales.

  20. Regional-scale winter-spring temperature variability and chilling damage dynamics over the past two centuries in southeastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Jianping; Zhang, Qi-Bin; Lv, Lixin; Zhang, Chao [Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Beijing (China)

    2012-08-15

    Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January-April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25-29 N, 111-115 E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957-2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1849-1855, {proportional_to}1871-1888, {proportional_to}1909-1920, {proportional_to}1939-1944, {proportional_to}1958-1968, 1997-2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1860-1870, {proportional_to}1893-1908, {proportional_to}1925-1934, {proportional_to}1945-1957, {proportional_to}1982-1996) during 1849-2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957-2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871-1956) are associated with North circulation pattern. (orig.)

  1. Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Drobinski

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb, and to the sea breeze depth (zsb and intensity (usb. They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area.

    Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted; and (iii the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

  2. Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Drobinski

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb, and to the sea breeze depth (zsb and intensity (usb. They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area. Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted; and (iii the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

  3. Millennial-scale variability in dust deposition, marine export production, and nutrient consumption in the glacial subantarctic ocean (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Garcia, A.; Sigman, D. M.; Anderson, R. F.; Ren, H. A.; Hodell, D. A.; Straub, M.; Jaccard, S.; Eglinton, T. I.; Haug, G. H.

    2013-12-01

    Based on the limitation of modern Southern Ocean phytoplankton by iron and the evidence of higher iron-bearing dust fluxes to the ocean during ice ages, it has been proposed that iron fertilization of Southern Ocean phytoplankton contributed to the reduction in atmospheric CO2 during ice ages. In the Subantarctic zone of the Atlantic Southern Ocean, glacial increases in dust flux and export production have been documented, supporting the iron fertilization hypothesis. However, these observations could be interpreted alternatively as resulting from the equatorward migration of Southern Ocean fronts during ice ages if the observed productivity rise was not accompanied by an increase in major nutrient consumption. Here, new 230Th-normalized lithogenic and opal fluxes are combined with high-resolution biomarker measurements to reconstruct millennial-scale changes in dust deposition and marine export production in the subantarctic Atlantic over the last glacial cycle. In the same record foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes are used to reconstruct ice age changes in surface nitrate utilization, providing a comprehensive test of the iron fertilization hypothesis. Elevation in foraminifera-bound δ15N, indicating more complete nitrate consumption, coincides with times of surface cooling and greater dust flux and export production. These observations indicate that the ice age Subantarctic was characterized by iron fertilized phytoplankton growth. The resulting strengthening of the Southern Ocean's biological pump can explain the ~40 ppm lowering of CO2 that characterizes the transitions from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions as well as the millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 fluctuations observed within the last ice age

  4. CLUMPING AND THE INTERPRETATION OF kpc-SCALE MAPS OF THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM: SMOOTH H I AND CLUMPY, VARIABLE H{sub 2} SURFACE DENSITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leroy, Adam K. [National Radio Astronomy Observtory, 520 Edgemont Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States); Lee, Cheoljong [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, 530 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States); Schruba, Andreas [California Institute for Technology, 1200 E California Blvd, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Bolatto, Alberto [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); Hughes, Annie; Sandstrom, Karin; Schinnerer, Eva; Walter, Fabian [Max Planck Institute fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Pety, Jerome [Institut de Radioastronomie Millimetrique, 300 Rue de la Piscine, F-38406 Saint Martin d' Heres (France)

    2013-05-20

    Many recent models consider the structure of individual interstellar medium (ISM) clouds as a way to explain observations of large parts of galaxies. To compare such models to observations, one must understand how to translate between surface densities observed averaging over large ({approx}kpc) scales and surface densities on the scale of individual clouds ({approx}pc scale), which are treated by models. We define a ''clumping factor'' that captures this translation as the ratio of the mass-weighted surface density, which is often the quantity of physical interest, to the area-weighted surface density, which is observed. We use high spatial resolution (sub-kpc) maps of CO and H I emission from nearby galaxies to measure the clumping factor of both atomic and molecular gas. The molecular and atomic ISM exhibit dramatically different degrees of clumping. As a result, the ratio H{sub 2}/H I measured at {approx}kpc resolution cannot be trivially interpreted as a cloud-scale ratio of surface densities. H I emission appears very smooth, with a clumping factor of only {approx}1.3. Based on the scarce and heterogeneous high-resolution data available, CO emission is far more clumped with a widely variable clumping factor, median {approx}7 for our heterogeneous data. Our measurements do not provide evidence for a universal mass-weighted surface density of molecular gas, but also cannot conclusively rule out such a scenario. We suggest that a more sophisticated treatment of molecular ISM structure, one informed by high spatial resolution CO maps, is needed to link cloud-scale models to kpc-scale observations of galaxies.

  5. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  6. Atomic scale simulations of pyrochlore oxides with a tight-binding variable-charge model: implications for radiation tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattonnay, G; Tétot, R

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations with new interatomic potentials derived from a tight-binding variable-charge model were performed in order to investigate the lattice properties and the defect formation energies in Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7 and Gd 2 Zr 2 O 7 pyrochlores. The main objective was to determine the role played by the defect stability on the radiation tolerance of these compounds. Calculations show that the titanate has a more covalent character than the zirconate. Moreover, the properties of oxygen Frenkel pairs, cation antisite defects and cation Frenkel pairs were studied. In Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7 the cation antisite defect and the Ti-Frenkel pair are not stable: they evolve towards more stable defect configurations during the atomic relaxation process. This phenomenon is driven by a decrease of the Ti coordination number down to five which leads to a local atomic reorganization and strong structural distortions around the defects. These kinds of atomic rearrangements are not observed around defects in Gd 2 Zr 2 O 7 . Therefore, the defect stability in A 2 B 2 O 7 depends on the ability of B atoms to accommodate high coordination number (higher than six seems impossible for Ti). The accumulation of structural distortions around Ti-defects due to this phenomenon could drive the Gd 2 Ti 2 O 7 amorphization induced by irradiation. (paper)

  7. Integrating environmental variables and geospatial technologies in landscape scale habitat modelling of edible stink bugs in Zimbabwe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masocha, Mhosisi; Dube, Timothy; Maziva, Tendai

    2018-06-01

    Encosternum delegorguei spinola (edible stink bugs) is renowned for its high protein and contribution to the local economies of the people in Africa. Although many studies have evaluated the economic and nutritional importance of E. delegorguei, little is known about its geographic distribution and habitat yet the insects are an important source of protein and money for many people in Southern Africa. In this study maximum entropy model was used to predict the probability of presence of E. delegorguei in southern Zimbabwe. The environmental factors governing its geographic distribution in Zimbabwe were also evaluated. Presence/absence data were selected along thirty-five randomly selected transects. The climatic and topographic variables used to predict the distribution of E. delegorguei were: maximum temperature of the warmest month; minimum temperature of the coldest month; the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI); altitude; slope; and aspect. It was found that E. delegorguei is most likely to occur on steep slopes with high NDVI located at an altitude ranging of 856 and 1450 m above sea level. These suitable habitats are characterised by mild temperatures ranging from 17 °C to 28 °C. These results are in agreement with previous studies indicating that E. delegorguei is sensitive to temperature, as well as tree cover and may contribute towards conserving its habitat, which is being fragmented by anthropogenic disturbance.

  8. Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2017-07-01

    The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

  9. Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. South America Monsoon variability on millennial to multi-centennial time scale during the Holocene in central eastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strikis, N. M.; Cruz, F. W.; Cheng, H.; Karmann, I.; Vuille, M.; Edwards, R.; Wang, X.; Paula, M. S.; Novello, V. F.; Auler, A.

    2011-12-01

    A paleoprecipitation reconstruction based on high resolution and well-dated speleothem oxygen isotope records shows that the monsoon precipitation over central eastern Brazil underwent to strong variations on millennial to multi-centennial time-scales during the Holocene. This new record indicates that abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation are correlated to Bond events 6, 5 and 4 and also with 8.2 ky event during the early and mid-Holocene, with a mean amplitude of 1.5 % (PDB). The pacing and structure of such events are general consistent with variations in solar activity suggested by atmospheric Δ14 C records. In the late-Holocene, abrupt events of increase in monsoon precipitation peaking at 3.2, 2.7 and 2.3 ky B.P. are approximately synchronous with periods of low solar minima. In this regard, the most prominent event occurred during the late Holocene occurred at ~2.7 ky B.P. In addition, these positive anomalies of the precipitation recorded in central eastern Brazil are also in good agreement with variations in Titicaca lake level. The good correspondence between the speleothem and marine records imply that the variations in the north Atlantic sea surface temperature is the main forcing for abrupt millennial to multi-centennial precipitations variation within the region under influence of South American Monsoon.

  11. Evaluation of Colloid Retention Site Dominance in Variably Saturated Porous Media: An All Pores Pore-Scale Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Veronica; Perez-Reche, Francisco; Holzner, Markus; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang

    2016-04-01

    It is well accepted that colloid and nanoparticle transport processes in porous media differ substantially between water saturated and unsaturated conditions. Differences are frequently ascribed to particle immobilization by association with interfaces with the gas, as well as to restrictions of the liquid medium through which colloids are transported. Yet, the current understanding of the importance of particle retention at gas interfaces is based on observations of single pores or two-dimensional pore network representations, leaving open the question of their statistical significance when all pores in the medium are considered. In order to address this question, column experiments were performed using a model porous medium of glass beads through which Silver particles were transported for conditions of varying water content and water chemistry. X-ray microtomography was subsequently employed as a non-destructive imaging technique to obtain pore-scale information of the entire column regarding: i) the presence and distribution of the main locations where colloids can become retained (interfaces with the water-solid, air-water, air-solid, and air-water-solid, grain-grain contacts, and the bulk liquid), ii) deposition profiles of colloids along the column classified by the available retention location, and iii) channel widths of 3-dimensional pore-water network representations. The results presented provide a direct statistical evaluation on the significance of colloid retention by attachment to interfaces or by strainig at contact points where multiple interfaces meet.

  12. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  13. Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

  14. Evaluating the role of soil variability on groundwater pollution and recharge at regional scale by integrating a process-based vadose zone model in a stochastic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Antonio; Comegna, Alessandro; Dragonetti, Giovanna; Lamaddalena, Nicola; Zdruli, Pandi

    2013-04-01

    Interpreting and predicting the evolution of water resources and soils at regional scale are continuing challenges for natural scientists. Examples include non-point source (NPS) pollution of soil and surface and subsurface water from agricultural chemicals and pathogens, as well as overexploitation of groundwater resources. The presence and build up of NPS pollutants may be harmful for both soil and groundwater resources. The accumulation of salts and trace elements in soils can significantly impact crop productivity, while loading of salts, nitrates, trace elements and pesticides into groundwater supplies can deteriorate a source of drinking and irrigation water. Consequently, predicting the spatial distribution and fate of NPS pollutants in soils at applicative scales is now considered crucial for maintaining the fragile balance between crop productivity and the negative environmental impacts of NPS pollutants, which is a basis of sustainable agriculture. Soil scientists and hydrologists are regularly asked to assist state agencies to understand these critical environmental issues. The most frequent inquiries are related to the development of mathematical models needed for analyzing the impacts of alternative land-use and best management use and management of soil and water resources. Different modelling solutions exist, mainly differing on the role of the vadose zone and its horizontal and vertical variability in the predictive models. The vadose zone (the region from the soil surface to the groundwater surface) is a complex physical, chemical and biological ecosystem that controls the passage of NPS pollutants from the soil surface where they have been deposited or accumulated due to agricultural activities, to groundwater. Physically based distributed hydrological models require the internal variability of the vadose zone be explored at a variety of scales. The equations describing fluxes and storage of water and solutes in the unsaturated zone used in these

  15. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2014-10-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b), makes use of LAMI rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain-gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult and it provides different outputs. Switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a very straightforward view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain-gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the high spatial variability of the physical features, which affects the relationship between rainfall and landslides, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of 332 rain gauges, it allows monitoring each alert zone separately and warnings can be issued independently from an alert zone to another. An important feature of the warning system is the use of thresholds that may vary in time adapting at the conditions of the rainfall path recorded by the rain-gauges. Depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set, the comparison with the threshold may produce different outcomes. Therefore, a recursive algorithm was developed to check and compare with the thresholds all possible starting times, highlighting the worst scenario and showing in the WebGIS interface at what time and how much the rainfall path has exceeded or will exceed the most critical threshold. Besides forecasting and monitoring the hazard scenario

  16. A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

  17. Fine-scale spatial variability of heat-related mortality in Philadelphia County, USA, from 1983-2008: a case-series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hondula David M

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High temperature and humidity conditions are associated with short-term elevations in the mortality rate in many United States cities. Previous research has quantified this relationship in an aggregate manner over large metropolitan areas, but within these areas the response may differ based on local-scale variability in climate, population characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Methods We compared the mortality response for 48 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs comprising Philadelphia County, PA to determine if certain areas are associated with elevated risk during high heat stress conditions. A randomization test was used to identify mortality exceedances for various apparent temperature thresholds at both the city and local scale. We then sought to identify the environmental, demographic, and social factors associated with high-risk areas via principal components regression. Results Citywide mortality increases by 9.3% on days following those with apparent temperatures over 34°C observed at 7:00 p.m. local time. During these conditions, elevated mortality rates were found for 10 of the 48 ZCTAs concentrated in the west-central portion of the County. Factors related to high heat mortality risk included proximity to locally high surface temperatures, low socioeconomic status, high density residential zoning, and age. Conclusions Within the larger Philadelphia metropolitan area, there exists statistically significant fine-scale spatial variability in the mortality response to high apparent temperatures. Future heat warning systems and mitigation and intervention measures could target these high risk areas to reduce the burden of extreme weather on summertime morbidity and mortality.

  18. The influence of climate variability on chemical composition of European wines: a regional scale study (Italy and Slovenia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbante, Carlo; Polo, Fabio; Cozzi, Giulio; Ogrinc, Nives; Turetta, Clara

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is having an increasing influence on vine phenology and grape composition, affecting vinifications, wine chemistry and the quality of productions. Wine grape cultivation provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Moreover, on a regional level and on a shorter time scale, the seasonal weather conditions modify the quality of yields determining the final properties of wine. In the present research, we studied wines from Italy and Slovenia with the purpose of differentiating them by the different vintages (from 2009 to 2012), which are supposed to be influenced by temperature and rain during each year's growing season. Specific chemical techniques were used, in particular mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and isotopic mass spectrometry (IRMS), both of which are usually employed to detect wine adulterations and to establish the geographical provenance of wines. In particular, we investigated the relationship between macro- and micro-elements, Rare Earth Elements and stable isotopes [δ13C, δ18O, (D/H)I, (D/H)II]. The datasets were examined via statistical techniques to show their relation to weather conditions as well as their mutual connection. Italian and Slovenian wines were distinguished, with the exception of few samples, by both TEs and REEs results. This separation, due to different elemental compositions, may be justified as being part of two distinct environmental and geographical belongings (terroir) but also to the processes of wine production, from the harvest to the bottling, which have certainly interfered and characterized the products. In the case of Italian wines the weather conditions were evidenced with an important separation of stable isotopes which they confirmed to be very sensitive Regarding Slovenian wines, the studied regions were characterized of

  19. New Multilocus Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Analysis (MLVA) Scheme for Fine-Scale Monitoring and Microevolution-Related Study of Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum Phylotype I Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinard, Jérémy; Latreille, Anne; Guérin, Fabien; Poussier, Stéphane

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Bacterial wilt caused by the Ralstonia solanacearum species complex (RSSC) is considered one of the most harmful plant diseases in the world. Special attention should be paid to R. pseudosolanacearum phylotype I due to its large host range, its worldwide distribution, and its high evolutionary potential. So far, the molecular epidemiology and population genetics of this bacterium are poorly understood. Until now, the genetic structure of the RSSC has been analyzed on the worldwide and regional scales. Emerging questions regarding evolutionary forces in RSSC adaptation to hosts now require genetic markers that are able to monitor RSSC field populations. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA) approach for its ability to discriminate genetically close phylotype I strains and for population genetics studies. We developed a new MLVA scheme (MLVA-7) allowing us to genotype 580 R. pseudosolanacearum phylotype I strains extracted from susceptible and resistant hosts and from different habitats (stem, soil, and rhizosphere). Based on specificity, polymorphism, and the amplification success rate, we selected seven fast-evolving variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) markers. The newly developed MLVA-7 scheme showed higher discriminatory power than the previously published MLVA-13 scheme when applied to collections sampled from the same location on different dates and to collections from different locations on very small scales. Our study provides a valuable tool for fine-scale monitoring and microevolution-related study of R. pseudosolanacearum phylotype I populations. IMPORTANCE Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of adaptation of plant pathogens to new hosts or ecological niches has become a key point for the development of innovative disease management strategies, including durable resistance. Whereas the molecular mechanisms underlying virulence or pathogenicity changes have been studied thoroughly, the

  20. Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

    2015-04-01

    The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of

  1. Use of a handheld low-cost sensor to explore the effect of urban design features on local-scale spatial and temporal air quality variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miskell, Georgia; Salmond, Jennifer A; Williams, David E

    2018-04-01

    Portable low-cost instruments have been validated and used to measure ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at multiple sites over a small urban area with 20min time resolution. We use these results combined with land use regression (LUR) and rank correlation methods to explore the effects of traffic, urban design features, and local meteorology and atmosphere chemistry on small-scale spatio-temporal variations. We measured NO 2 at 45 sites around the downtown area of Vancouver, BC, in spring 2016, and constructed four different models: i) a model based on averaging concentrations observed at each site over the whole measurement period, and separate temporal models for ii) morning, iii) midday, and iv) afternoon. Redesign of the temporal models using the average model predictors as constants gave three 'hybrid' models that used both spatial and temporal variables. These accounted for approximately 50% of the total variation with mean absolute error±5ppb. Ranking sites by concentration and by change in concentration across the day showed a shift of high NO 2 concentrations across the central city from morning to afternoon. Locations could be identified in which NO 2 concentration was determined by the geography of the site, and others as ones in which the concentration changed markedly from morning to afternoon indicating the importance of temporal controls. Rank correlation results complemented LUR in identifying significant urban design variables that impacted NO 2 concentration. High variability across a relatively small space was partially described by predictor variables related to traffic (bus stop density, speed limits, traffic counts, distance to traffic lights), atmospheric chemistry (ozone, dew point), and environment (land use, trees). A high-density network recording continuously would be needed fully to capture local variations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Short time-scale wind forced variability in the Río de la Plata Estuary and its role on ichthyoplankton retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simionato, C. G.; Berasategui, A.; Meccia, V. L.; Acha, M.; Mianzan, H.

    2008-01-01

    The Río de la Plata Estuary presents a strong bottom salinity front located over a submerged shoal. Apparently favored by retention processes, it is a spawning ground for several coastal fishes. This estuary is very shallow and essentially wind driven and, moreover, in time scales relevant to biota, estuarine circulation is wind dominated and highly variable. Two intriguing questions are, therefore, how this system can favor retention and what the involved mechanisms are. This paper qualitatively explores mechanisms involved in the estuary where retention is favored applying numerical simulations in which neutral particles - simulating fish eggs and early larvae - are released along the bottom frontal zone and tracked for different wind conditions. Results suggest that retentive features can be a consequence of estuarine response to natural wind variability acting over bathymetric features. For winds from most directions, particles either remain trapped near their launching position or move northeastward to southwestward along the shoal. As alternation of winds that favor along-shoal motion is the dominant feature of wind variability in the region, a retentive scenario results from prevailing wind variability. Additionally, winds that tend to export particles with a poor chance of being restored to the front are neither frequent nor persistent. Results show, t